title: Choosing ARIMA model in r
body: <p>I have run an ARIMA model on univariate time series data. I have the below statistical results with the lag differencing at 3. I am not sure which of the model to select to forecast. Any help to choose the order out of the below 2 would be much appreciated.</p>
  <p>Note: dataframe d.ratio is with 3rd lag differencing.</p>
  <p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/TNUfr.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/TNUfr.png" alt="p2, d3, q3" /></a></p>
  <p><a href="https://i.stack.imgur.com/0ADxu.png" rel="nofollow noreferrer"><img src="https://i.stack.imgur.com/0ADxu.png" alt="p1, d3, q1" /></a></p>