title: Use Time Series to Predict the Next Event in a Series
body: <p>I have a set of data that is the maximum amount of ice on a lake, and the first date that a boat is seen on the lake. I want to use a time series to predict, based on the amount of ice on the lake this year, when the first boat will be seen on the lake this year. My data looks like:</p>
  
  <pre><code>Date    Percent Ice
  2018-4-12   69.8
  2017-4-2    73.6
  2016-4-3    64.9
  2015-4-13   31.3
  2014-5-7    96
  2013-3-30   92.5
  </code></pre>
  
  <p>I'm not so familiar with time series functions, so the best code I have so far is simply importing modules and reading in my data:</p>
  
  <pre><code>import pandas as pd
  import numpy as np
  import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
  import statsmodels.api as sm
  
  df = pd.read_csv('boats.csv')
  
  df = pd.read_csv('boats.csv', nrows = 47)
  </code></pre>