

We know that throughout the series the Puella Magi can only search for witches
and don't actually know where they will appear ahead of time (Mami named
places she searched and had to trace the witch with her Soul Gem), unless they
get lucky and find a grief seed of a newborn witch (like the one Madoka and
Sayaka found at the hospital).

Homura was able to know where Walpurgisnacht would appeared because she had
prior knowledge from coming from the future.

However, in the first timeline, Mami knew Walpurgisnacht was coming and was
training Madoka in preparation for the battle. Is it explained how she or
Madoka knew?


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How is Walpurgisnacht's appearance predicted?


There is slight nuance here. Walpurgisnight is a natural phenomenon that
happens all the time. Just like places where hurricanes happen occasionally,
you are going to encounter one sooner or later if you start living there. Mami
knew Walpurgisnight will come sooner or later. She just didn't know when and
where. It might have been next week or next year.

Homura on the other hand knew exactly when and where it will come.


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As a matter of fact, Kyoko asked Homura the same question regarding
Walpurgisnacht's appearance, to which Homura responds with a single word:

> ## Statistics.

Well... I think you can take Akemi Homura's word for it. She has experienced
**_so many_** timelines, planning and fighting the Walpurgisnacht witch,
gradually learning more and more about it every time.

I suppose she's done a lot of data analytics about the witch with all the
information she has collected throughout the timelines! Graphs, annotated
sketches of the Walpurgisnacht witch and maps of Mitakihara city feature at
Homura's residence. Also note that among the timelines shown, all of them
place the fight scene of magical girls vs the Walpurgisnacht witch in one of
the lakes/water bodies of Mitakihara city.

Here's Homura indicating the location of the witch...

[![Akemi Homura indicating the location of Walpurgisnacht
witch](https://i.stack.imgur.com/RnDsF.jpg)](https://i.stack.imgur.com/RnDsF.jpg)

## Edit:

I would suggest that Mami knew about Walpurgis in the first timeline of
episode 10 **only because** Kyubey said so. After all, _the Incubators do
plant grief seeds across the city_ , which hatch into witches. In fact, I
wouldn't be surprised if the Walpurgisnacht was the work of the Incubators. In
all their advanced technology and magic, the Incubators may even fabricate
grief seeds which has the essence of an agglomerate of regular witches...


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The [top answer](https://anime.stackexchange.com/a/40472) has effectively
answered your question about how Walpurgisnacht's appearance is predicted in
later timelines. However, its appearance is still known in advance without
Homura's intervention.

  * In Madoka Magica episode 10, Mami is actively preparing for Walpurgisnacht's arrival.
  * In Kazumi Magica chapter 22, Kyubey briefly mistakes Kanna's amalgamate witch for Walpurgisnacht, implying that it could suddenly appear in a similar manner.
  * In The Different Story chapter 2, Kyouko tells Mami rumors she's heard about a superdreadnought witch called Walpurgisnacht, which is notable since this long predates Walpurgisnacht's arrival in the anime.
  * In Magia Record, the Magius' plan revolves around luring Walpurgisnacht to Kamihama as the power source needed for the Automatic Purification System to extend around the globe.

Most notably, however, **Walpurgisnacht does not drop a grief seed.** In the
timeline where it is defeated by Madoka and Homura alone, the only grief seed
they have access to is Oktavia's.

[![Madoka holding Oktavia's grief seed up to Homura in episode
10](https://i.stack.imgur.com/lIfDV.jpg)](https://i.stack.imgur.com/lIfDV.jpg)

This can't be attributed to the annihilation of its soul as in _Magia Record_
, as neither Madoka nor Homura have a power capable of such like Ren does. And
_Portable_ does confirm it has a Grief Seed.

[![Walpurgisnacht's Grief
Seed](https://i.stack.imgur.com/hYf4h.png)](https://i.stack.imgur.com/hYf4h.png)

So where does its Grief Seed go, if it has one but never drops it even when
seemingly defeated? Well, what if it doesn't die when it's killed? This would
readily explain how it's well-known in advance; it's never truly killed, but
simply exits reality and waits. It has been defeated before, by magical girls
who would warn their younger teammates of the witch that tears open the day,
and it would be defeated again if the timeline hadn't consistently been reset
after its appearance in the anime.

Further supporting evidence, which is less reliable due to being pulled from
unreleased materials:

  * The _Rebellion_ sequel's title, _Walpurgis Revolution_ , implies that the witch is somehow capable of persisting past two true resets, even though logically the Law of Cycles should immediately destroy it once it appears.

  * A witch exclusive to _Portable_ , Itzli, is specifically noted in the lore as only appearing _after_ Walpurgisnacht's defeat. Like the character introduced by _Scene/Zero_ , Aki Mabayu, Itzli has a film-splicing motif, and could thus potentially have powers over editing herself into reality if she is in fact a part of the Walpurgisnacht amalgamate. Supporting this is Mabayu's suspiciously Walpurgisnacht-like appearance:

[![Aki Mabayu, as she is seen in the Scene/Zero
PV](https://i.stack.imgur.com/U9e6h.png)](https://i.stack.imgur.com/U9e6h.png)


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