Which is better for a sales budget: 予算, 推計, or something I haven't even thought of yet?


I'm writing a short (3-5 page) business plan in Japanese. I'd like to include
an "estimate" of the sales for the next 3 years.

The question: what would you choose for the graph titled:

> 2012 Fiscal Year Sales Projections
>
> 2012年度の売上高の_ ** ___ __ ___ ___**

?

I've seen words like 目標 and ノルマ used to refer to a sales target/sales "budget"
-- e.g. how much sales a company expects a person, team, or division to
achieve.

I use 予算 more frequently to discuss a client's budget (i.e. for spending, not
for earning) for a project, as in the construct:

> ご予算はどのぐらいをお考えですか。
>
> About how much are you thinking to budget for this project?

But I've also heard 予算 used to discuss the "budget" that a company must
achieve in terms of sales.

That said, something like 推計 translates nicely in English as "estimate" or
"estimation", and given that I'm trying to plan a business sales plan for 2.5
years from now, I'd say "estimate" in English is a pretty good sense of what
I'm doing -- it's just a few stages short of a "SWAG" :).

Any feedback is appreciated.




As a lay reader of news articles with a general interest in businesses and a
little more interest in the field of business I'm in, my candidates are:

  * 予測: projection, forecast - based on some grounds/numbers
  * 予想: estimate - may or may not be based on actual calculation, or you just don't want to go into the details
  * 試算: calculation based on hypothetical formula/numbers to test assumptions, expectations, etc.
  * 希望的観測: wishful thinking - (handle with care)

From what I understand about ["SWAG"
guesses](http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=swag%20%28s.w.a.g.%29),
**予想** seems to be the one that fills your bill.

Regarding 推計: Personally I've seen 推計 mostly in the context of making guesses
about _past or current_ figures, as in "人口推計" (current population estimates).

Regarding 予算: I'm not familiar with the usage of 予算 on the earning side of the
equation, but a quick web search gives me the impression that it's best suited
for accounting, sales and/or project management people, who get the work
rolling in earnest [1].

[1] Case in point, this person is asking about what 予算 means as a salesperson
jargon: <http://questionbox.jp.msn.com/qa880337.html>




As a lay reader of news articles with a general interest in businesses and a
little more interest in the field of business I'm in, my candidates are:

  * 予測: projection, forecast - based on some grounds/numbers
  * 予想: estimate - may or may not be based on actual calculation, or you just don't want to go into the details
  * 試算: calculation based on hypothetical formula/numbers to test assumptions, expectations, etc.
  * 希望的観測: wishful thinking - (handle with care)

From what I understand about ["SWAG"
guesses](http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=swag%20%28s.w.a.g.%29),
**予想** seems to be the one that fills your bill.

Regarding 推計: Personally I've seen 推計 mostly in the context of making guesses
about _past or current_ figures, as in "人口推計" (current population estimates).

Regarding 予算: I'm not familiar with the usage of 予算 on the earning side of the
equation, but a quick web search gives me the impression that it's best suited
for accounting, sales and/or project management people, who get the work
rolling in earnest [1].

[1] Case in point, this person is asking about what 予算 means as a salesperson
jargon: <http://questionbox.jp.msn.com/qa880337.html>

