<div class="description">
<p>A sounding climatology of a variety of parameters commonly used to forecast  deep, moist convection using upper-air observations is developed. The data set includes  0000 and 1200 UTC rawinsonde data (approximately 3629 soundings) from Laughlin  AFB, TX from April-September 1995-2004. Cloud-to-ground lightning data, surface  observations and severe weather reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)  SeverePlot2 Program were used to categorize soundings as representative of conditions  for no convection, light convection, convection within vicinity, moderate severe  convection, or severe convection. Indices, including convective available potential  energy (CAPE) and mean layer CAPE (MLCAPE), along with sounding parameters and  combinations of such as 0-2 and 0-6 km bulk shear, 700-500 mb lapse rate, lifted  condensation level (LCL) and mean layer LCL (MLLCL) heights, are examined in an  attempt to distinguish between moderate and severe convection.  The results show that the 0-6 km bulk shear along with the MLCAPE and LCL  height indicate some discrimination between the moderate and severe categories. The  best discrimination comes from the significant severe parameter (defined by calculating  the product of the 0-6 km bulk shear and MLCAPE), and the 0-6 km bulk shear versus  the MLCAPE, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate.
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<br>Subjects: Severe storms; Forecasting</div>
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Cercone, Eric J.</div>
Internet Archive identifier