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<p>Improvised explosive device (IED) attacks are a significant threat to  coalition forces. Defeating IEDs as weapons of strategic influence has become  a major objective of Combatant Commanders and their respective Joint Task  Forces. This thesis attempts to identify new approaches that can help  operational forces mitigate the risk of IED attacks by identifying common  sequences of events that occur before an IED attack and forecasting the number  of attacks in the immediate future. Using the CARMA association rules  algorithm on historical data of religious, political, and IED attack events, a  model is developed to explore commonly occurring sequences of events leading  to an insurgency IED attack and to predict events that are likely to occur  given the sequence observed to date. Time series models are also generated to  identify trends and relationships that can be helpful in forecasting future  monthly IED attacks based upon previous actual historical attacks. The  identified sequences and forecasts could be used to help plan troop movements,  rotations, force levels, as well as allocating limited resources to address  imminent threats.
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<br>Subjects: Risk</div>
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Stafford, William B.</div>
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