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<p>This research starts from the question of how North Korea decides upon the types of its provocations against the South. To find the answer, the author divides the major provocations into three periods, according to their characteristics, and examines how the major decisive factors of the Norths crisis policy making, such as military strength, relations with China and the Soviet Union (Russia), regime stability, and economic power, affected its choice of provocation types. The results of the analysis suggest that Pyongyang has chosen the targets, scale, and methods of provocation by thoroughly evaluating its current military, diplomatic, political, and economic conditions. Therefore, what types of provocations will be initiated by North Korea in the future? One of the obvious points is that Pyongyangs confidence to defeat Seoul will not be restored soon, and the unexpected strong response of the United States and South Korea will confuse the Norths strategic decision making. For that reason, the most effective way for South Korea to deter any possible provocations by the North is to put more pressure on the Kim regime by using its overwhelming national power and conveying its strong intention to retaliate against the Norths threats on the basis of the firm ROK-U.S. military alliance.
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<br>Subjects: Provocation; Crisis Management Strategy; Fait Accompli; Attrition; Controlled Pressure; Regime Stability; Terror; Maritime Conflict</div>
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Lee, Hyun Haeng</div>
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