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<p>This research develops a methodology to analyze stakeholder-decision logic in dynamic,  multi-agent political systems. The backdrop for this study is Lebanese Hezbollah decision  making in a system including Iran, Syria, Israel, and the U.S. A thorough historical  review of the Middle East provides the foundation for accurate definition of each  stakeholder's interests and feasible actions. Additionally, the historical review provides  the basis for specifying model relationships and initial, notional probability data to  inform the model. A conceptual model is then developed representing the system using  influence diagrams. This conceptual model is adapted to enable implementation of two  models, one for each research question posed by the Unified Combatant Command. To  solve these models, a Java application was developed and described in detail. The  application provides the user with the capability to manipulate the model and inputs to  suit their analytic needs and to evaluate the efficacy of model variables. User interface  and convenient model diagnostics, together, provide the Unified Combatant Command  with the desired decision support complement to their current analytic techniques.  Finally, several important insights are presented relating to modeling methodology and to  the specific decision-making logic of Hezbollah and other stakeholders in this system.
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<br>Subjects:</div>
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Garrick, Ronald A.</div>
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