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<p>Resourcing the wide availability of diving equipment and training, terrorists can exploit the sub-surface domain to sabotage naval fleet units, which are prominent state assets, when berthed at harbors. An evaluation of the capabilities and limitations related to sub-surface domain operations reveals that saboteurs endeavor to minimize physical and physiological constraints, domain dynamics, and navigation challenges by operating in shallow waters, seeking the advantage of tidal flow effect, and using reference navigation whenever possible. Common harbor defense countermeasures are not sufficient to thwart such attacks; however, Sri Lankan Navy harbor defenses have employed a combination of countermeasures concentrated on saboteur target-seeking approaches. The analysis of case studies in this thesis reveals a pattern in target seeking for sub-surface saboteur attacks. System dynamic modeling is then used to simulate likely saboteur approaches and domain dynamics (tidal dynamics) to determine the success or failure of the attack. In the simulation, countermeasure effectiveness is taken as the main feedback loop. This thesis recommends that commanding officers of ships berthed at harbor can mitigate sub-surface saboteur attacks by implementing technical and physical countermeasures based on an understanding of the saboteur’s approach.
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<br>Subjects: sub-surface domain terrorist attacks; harbor defenses; counter-measures; tidal dynamics in harbors; sub-surface navigation</div>
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Athukorala, A. K. Roshan</div>
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