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<p>We examined long-range statistical forecasting methods for Korean summer  precipitation (KSP). We reviewed existing literature on the East Asian summer monsoon  to develop a background on current KSP research and on the relationship of KSP to  climate variations. Second, we explored interannual variability of KSP using composite  and correlation analyses. We found that circulation anomalies in the spring prior to the  monsoon in the tropical northwest Pacific alter sea surface temperatures (SST). These  SST anomalies then persist into the following summer, leading to summer circulation  anomalies that alter the flow into Korea and the precipitation on the seasonal scale. From  this relationship, we developed a seasonal forecasting index. Third, we looked at KSP on  the intraseasonal scale, to develop statistical forecast methods with five to thirty day  leadtimes. We found that the Korean summer monsoon onset, break and withdrawal are  positively correlated to the El NinÌ o / La NinÌ a state. We found that the Madden-Julian  Oscillation (MJO), when conditioned with our seasonal index, showed skill in forecasting  with lead times out to 20 days. Last, we found that tropical cyclone activity in Korea is  impacted by ENSO on the interannual scale, and MJO on the intraseasonal scale.
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<br>Subjects: Monsoons; Korea; Precipitation forecasting; East Asia</div>
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Tournay, Robert C.</div>
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