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<p>This thesis uses utility theory to derive an equation expressing the utility of deterrent strategies. The resulting equation is then tested against the deterrent options available to the newly independent Republic of Kazakhstan. It predicts the failure of current United States policy and the retention by Kazakhstan, of some form of nuclear deterrence in order to counter Russian aggression brought on by ethnic unrest in Kazakhstan. It further suggests that the deterrent options chosen by Kazakhstan may be irrationality-based deterrence which may lead to the development of some form of "doomsday machine."
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<br>Subjects: Kazakhstan; Deterrence; Nuclear proliferation; Central Asia; CIS</div>
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Madden, Lewis D.</div>
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