<div class="description">
<p>A Markov Model was used to determine the number of nurses the Navy must gain each year in order to maintain  desired end strength. Significant characteristics affecting career progression of individuals in the Navy Nurse Corps were  identified. The characteristic of primary concern, accession source, was determined to be significant. Markov models were  created to identify personnel flow from ENS through LCDR. The models end-strength projections for 2006-2009 were then  compared to Nurse Corps targeted end-strengths for this same period. Several scenarios were run to minimize overages and  underages in rank distribution. Optimization was achieved by changing both the distribution of accession sources and the  distribution of recruited ranks. Optimal distribution of accession source and rank are dependant upon the degree of accepTable  deviation from these targets. As stated above we were not able to acquire this information limiting our ability to accurately  forecast optimized distribution of accession source or rank. The Markov Model demonstrated that the Nurse Corps current  business practices optimize accessions for two year projections. Increasing variation between the current force structure plan  and our models projections suggest that greater efficiency could be obtained in the out-years. This Markov Model provides a  tool for improving extended forecasts.
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<br>Subjects: Manpower planning; United States; Markov processes; Numerical solutions; Markov model; Nurse Corps manpower; Solver; Overages; Underages; Accession source</div>
<div class="fn value">
<dl><dd>Kinstler, Daniel Paul</dd>
<dd>Johnson, Raymond W.</dd></dl></div>
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