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<p>The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether the Indian Navy can respond to a growing Chinese fleet by analyzing the historical development of the Indian Navy since independence. Three naval expansion periods are identified, and three causal factors are measured to determine the effects of each factor on Indian naval expansion. The three factors are (1) responses to a perceived threat, (2) India's economic condition, and (3) the benefits of foreign military aid. The saidy shows that responses to an increase in perceived threat initially drove each expansion period, but a key factor in sustaining any period of development was the benefit of foreign military aid. The economy played a minor role in India's early history, but has become a primary factor for future fleet expansion. The conclusion of this thesis is that the Indian Navy will only expand if all three factors exist. Currently India perceives threats from China and Pakistan, and India is experiencing relative economic success. The factor that is not present. The one which will inhibit significant naval expansion - is the benefit of foreign military aid. Without a substitute arms supplier taking the place of the Soviet Union, the Indian Navy is not likely to expand in the near future.
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Quidachay, VIncent J.</div>
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