* Had a Shelter in Place Order not been put in place on March 16th, we expect we would have had approximately 50,000 cases of COVID-19 in our County by May 1st. The red line above reflects the number of cases we expect we would have had absent a Shelter in Place Order.
<ul><li>Because of the Shelter in Place Order, our confirmed cases are already lower than the projected number of cases we expect we would have now without the Order. We believe we are now in the very early stages of the “flattening of the curve” the Order was designed to achieve.</li>
<li>Looking forward in time, the model estimates that by May 1st our case counts are likely to be far lower than they would have been without the Shelter in Place Order.</li>
<li>These are only models, however, and many factors can change future outcomes, including our continued ability to maintain the shelter in place. These projections should also be interpreted knowing we still have limited testing capacity.</li>
<li>However, our models strongly suggest that our Shelter in Place order has had a significant impact on what would have been more significant exponential growth in cases.</li></ul>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Santa_Clara_County_Public_Health_Department" class="extiw" title="w:Santa Clara County Public Health Department">Santa Clara County Public Health Department</a>
2020-04-10
<a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Pages/model-estimates-cases-and-hospitalizations.aspx">Model Estimates of Cases and Hospitalizations in Santa Clara County</a> <a rel="nofollow" class="external autonumber" href="https://www.sccgov.org/sites/covid19/Documents/COVID19CasesProjected%29inSantaClaraCounty.pdf">[1]</a>