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<p>We have identified statistical and dynamical relationships between  summer rainfall variations in tropical West Africa (TWA) and El NinÌ o/La NinÌ a  (ENLN) events in the tropical Pacific. Our primary data sets were the National  Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research  reanalysis fields and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for the period 1970-  2007. Correlations of TWA rainfall and MEI time series showed that high (low)  TWA rainfall was significantly correlated with LN (EN) events, with LN (EN)  leading by zero to seven months. Composite analyses showed that ENLN  impacts on TWA occurred via global scale equatorial Rossby-Kelvin waves and  Southern Hemisphere Rossby wave trains that extended into the tropical African  region. We also found regional connections between positive (negative) sea  surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea and Angola coastal  waters and negative (positive) TWA rainfall anomalies. We expect our results to  contribute to improved long lead rainfall predictions for TWA. This would allow  military and civilian planners to construct a more effective framework for Theater  Security Cooperation in TWA, including strategies for mitigating the impacts of  climate variations and climate change.
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<br>Subjects: Rain and rainfall; Africa, West; Climatic changes; Military planning; Precipitation forecasting</div>
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Montgomery, Christi S.</div>
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