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<p>We develop a campaign model for counterinsurgency that is  derived from the Lanchester-inspired Vidale-Wolfe marketing  model utilized in the analysis of a consumer population's  dynamics. We adapt this approach for a situation in which  the output of our differential equation model is not  attrition but the percentage of a given population that  supports a particular side in the insurgency. The model is  descriptive, providing a structured framework to analyze  complex inputs in a simple, straightforward and easily  understood framework. Parametric observations reveal that a  fledgling insurgency will grow to be a major concern if left  unaddressed by the government. Data from Colombia's  insurgency demonstrates that the model is well suited to  reflect the movement of a population's support away from the  government and toward an insurgency.
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<br>Subjects: Counterinsurgency; Differential equations</div>
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Blasy, Christian W.</div>
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