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<p>This thesis uses total cost and external safety considerations to determine the most cost effective and safest method of embarking/debarking ordnance to support the Pacific Fleet. The study relies on historical data and spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulations to estimate operation times. Simulation is required because few operations have been conducted so historical data is limited. The 'add-in' package, 'Crystal Ball,' applies stochastic simulations to decision making analysis. The actual costs of anchorage and vertical replenishment  (vertrep) operations are compared, using triangular and uniform distribution models. This thesis provides a more accurate cost analysis for comparing onload/offload vertrep and anchorage operations. The funding from this comparison determined that vertreps provide the largest benefit to the fleet in terms of cost, training, and flexibility.
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<br>Subjects:</div>
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Bouveron, Martin E.</div>
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