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<p>This thesis proposes and analyzes mathematical descriptive models of the effect of  Insurgency/Counterinsurgency Operations on the population of a nation experiencing stability operations. The model  is a system of differential equations representing insurgent activity, insurgent recruiting, insurgent removal by the  coalition; the population's tolerance for insurgent violence; occurrence of actions by the coalition and insurgency the  population perceives as beneficial and damaging, and the resulting change in the population's support for the  government. The study focuses on a single population, attempting to identify and model the first order effects of  stability force actions on the population. We represent and study the effect of possible strategies by local government  and external stability forces to influence popular support toward the government. We find the greatest increase in  popular support occurs when the coalition concentrates on performing actions perceived by the population as  beneficial and mitigating the effects of its damaging actions. When the population does not perceive insurgent actions  as damaging, we find the coalition has difficulty increasing popular support for the government. Coalition cooperation  with local leaders in planning and executing beneficial actions may increase the perceived effect of coalition actions  the population perceives as beneficial.
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<br>Subjects: Insurgency; Counterinsurgency; Psychological aspects</div>
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Damalas, Kimberly A.</div>
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