 october november now what we're doing is layering on top of that a forecast and a seasonal forecast remember that piece of it because that's key i'm going to come back to that in a second a seasonal forecast that is calling for well above average number of named storms right now being a seasonal forecast let's understand something you know we're looking out months in advance and we do struggle sometimes even with a three or five day forecast you know i think people are going on what they're seeing and kind of some of the in quotes