 ago we observed that the lai had fallen 2.9 in the second half of 2023 triggering a recession warning but in this first half of 2024 the lai has fallen less down 1.9 so no longer a recession signal by their measure this is the type of data we're watching to gauge a slowdown but recall we're particularly interested in the consumer both sentiment and activity as we monitor for a slowdown all this after coming off a period of better than expected economic activity