text:  so badly that he's out of the normal range of polling error scenarios. And he either needs a big polling error or something fundamental to change about the race. That's the glass half full view of Biden's perspective in this particular election. He says that they have a polls plus model over at 538 Nate Silver. The polls plus model incorporates assumptions about incumbency and the economy. He says this is slightly better than the polls only forecast, but it would be easier to get carried away. He says the fundamentals are not that great for Biden.