text:  in electoral college probability, which is all that matters, that's how we choose the president, and popular vote probability and predicted electoral votes and predicted popular vote share and, you know, on and on. Notable that even when it comes to the popular vote, which gives Democrats an advantage, Trump and Biden are pretty close. Nate Silver puts it at 51 Biden, 49 Trump. But when you get to the electoral college, which is the system that we actually have in our constitutional republic, such as it is, he says Trump far and away the favorite to win.