text:  Jobs. We're finding the unemployment number creeping up. It's still very low. It's 4.1%. We used to think of it historically as 5% being the low, but that's the other problem. They don't want to heat up the economy too much and tighten the labor market. There's a real balance between fighting inflation and fighting a recession. Nobody's really worried about a recession right now, but the Fed is keeping these things both in mind. Expect a rate cut probably by September, though.