 that Donald Trump right now has about a two-thirds chance of winning, according to Nate Silver. That's a crazy number. He points out that in 2012, he said that's a race that looks a lot like this race. He says that he thought that when the model was launched, Obama was actually about a 60% favorite. In this particular case, Trump is a 66% favorite. That doesn't mean for sure he's going to win. Remember that all the models had Hillary Clinton like a 99% favorite in 2016, and then she lost.