query: Statins decrease blood cholesterol.

positive: A Century of Cholesterol and Coronaries: From Plaques to Genes to Statins One-fourth of all deaths in industrialized countries result from coronary heart disease. A century of research has revealed the essential causative agent: cholesterol-carrying low-density lipoprotein (LDL). LDL is controlled by specific receptors (LDLRs) in liver that remove it from blood. Mutations that eliminate LDLRs raise LDL and cause heart attacks in childhood, whereas mutations that raise LDLRs reduce LDL and diminish heart attacks. If we are to eliminate coronary disease, lowering LDL should be the primary goal. Effective means to achieve this goal are currently available. The key questions are: who to treat, when to treat, and how long to treat.

negative: Serum plant and other noncholesterol sterols, cholesterol metabolism and 22-year mortality among middle-aged men. OBJECTIVE To evaluate long-term prognostic effect of serum noncholesterol sterols, including plant sterols, in middle-aged men with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, without statins at baseline. METHODS This was a prospective study of 232 men (mean age 60 years) at high risk of CVD in 1985-1986. Most were hypercholesterolemic, 29 (12%) had a history of CVD or cancer, 6 (3%) had diabetes, and 46 (20%) had metabolic syndrome (MS). Measured noncholesterol sterols (expressed as absolute concentrations or ratios to serum cholesterol to standardize for cholesterol concentrations) included lathosterol and desmosterol (reflect cholesterol synthesis), and plant sterols (campesterol and sitosterol) and cholestanol (reflect cholesterol absorption). Main outcome measure was total mortality. RESULTS At baseline, markers of cholesterol synthesis and absorption showed expected inverse associations. During the 22-year follow-up 101 men (43%) died. At baseline, nonsurvivors smoked more, exercised less and had more components of MS (although not filling strict criteria), whereas traditional risk factors of CVD were not significantly different. Of the noncholesterol sterols (either absolute or ratio), only sitosterol was significantly higher in survivors than in nonsurvivors (P=0.02). In multivariable analyses, highest sitosterol-to-cholesterol tertile was associated with significantly lower mortality risk (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.30-0.87) as compared to lowest tertile. Other associations were nonsignificant, although a "global" index of cholesterol metabolism (desmosterol-to-sitosterol ratio) suggested higher cholesterol synthesis and lower absorption to be associated with higher total and CVD mortality. CONCLUSION Higher serum plant sterol levels in middle-aged men predicted lower long-term mortality risk, possibly reflecting an association between higher synthesis/lower absorption of cholesterol and mortality.

negative: Metabolic syndrome as a risk factor for diabetes. The metabolic syndrome was initially described as an insulin-resistance syndrome characterized by the clustering of metabolic traits such as high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high blood pressure, abdominal obesity and different degrees of impaired glucose regulation. Although different definitions have been developed by various consensus groups, epidemiological studies demonstrate that they all associate the metabolic syndrome with a similar cardiometabolic risk, which is high for diabetes (ranging between three- and 20-fold), depending on the number of components and the inclusion of impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance or both. The latter appear to indicate the failure of the beta cell to produce enough insulin to compensate for the increased demand due to insulin resistance. There is a hyperbolic relationship between insulin production and insulin sensitivity, which can be calculated by the disposition index. When this is altered there is a higher risk of developing Type 2 diabetes. There have been no clinical trials in subjects selected by the diagnosis of metabolic syndrome, but structured lifestyle changes have been tested in people with impaired fasting glucose/impaired glucose tolerance and have been able to reduce incident Type 2 diabetes by almost 50%, as long as a weight loss of at least 5% is achieved. Oral antidiabetic and anti-obesity drugs have also been successful to a lesser degree. Some fibrates have reduced or delayed incident diabetes. Extended-release niacin has a neutral effect and statins are controversial. ACE inhibitors and ARBs are the antihypertensive agents least associated with incident diabetes.

negative: Effectiveness of statin-eluting stent on early inflammatory response and neointimal thickness in a porcine coronary model. BACKGROUND Drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation is routine during coronary revascularization because DES significantly reduce rates of restenosis and target lesion revascularization compared with bare metal stent (BMS). However, available DES have limitations, such as late thrombosis because of delayed healing with poorer endothelialization and persistent local inflammation. Statins can inhibit cell proliferation, inflammation, and restore endothelial function. The present study evaluated the ability of stent-based cerivastatin delivery to reduce stent-induced inflammatory responses and adverse effects on endothelial function, and to inhibit neointimal hyperplasia in a porcine coronary model. METHODS AND RESULTS Pigs were randomized into groups in which the coronary arteries (9 pigs, 18 coronaries in each group) had either a cerivastatin-eluting stent (CES) or a BMS. All animals survived without any adverse effects. Inflammatory cell infiltration evaluated using scanning electron microscopy on day 3 after stenting was significantly decreased in the treated vessels (inflammation score: 1.15+/-0.12 vs 2.43+/-0.34, p<0.0001). At day 28, endothelial function with intracoronary infusion of bradykinin was preserved in both the CES and BMS groups. Volumetric intravascular ultrasound images revealed decreased intimal volume in the CES group (28.3+/-5.4 vs 75.9+/-4.2 mm3, p<0.0001). Histomorphometric analysis showed reduced neointimal area (1.74+/-0.45 vs 3.83+/-0.51 mm2, p<0.0001) in the CES group despite similar injury scores (1.77+/-0.30 vs 1.77+/-0.22, p=0.97). CONCLUSION In porcine coronary arteries CES significantly decreased neointimal hyperplasia with a decreased early inflammatory response and without endothelial dysfunction.

negative: Statins in the treatment of polycythaemia vera and allied disorders: an antithrombotic and cytoreductive potential? Thrombohaemorrhagic complications are major clinical problems in the classical chronic Ph-negative myeloproliferative disorders (CMPDs), polycytaemia vera (PV), essential thrombocythaemia (ET) and idiopathic myelofibrosis (IMF), contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality. Pathophysiologically these disorders are characterized by clonal myeloproliferation, myeloaccumulation and a propensity to develop myelofibrosis and neoangiogenesis in both the bone marrow and spleen. Based upon in vitro and in vivo studies of the effects of statins (antithrombotic, antiproliferative, proapoptotic and antiangiogenic), this review focuses on the translation of these effects into potential clinical benefits of statin therapy in patients with CMPDs.

negative: In vitro Anti-Tumor Effects of Statins on Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Review BACKGROUND Statins are commonly used against arteriosclerotic disease, but recent retrospective analyses have suggested that statins also prevent cancer. The aim of this systematic review is to verify the vitro anti-tumor effects of statins on head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. METHODS Studies were gathered by searching Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, and PubMed, up until May 9, 2015, with no time or language restrictions. Only in vitro studies that discuss the effect of statins on head and neck carcinoma were selected. RESULTS Of 153 identified papers, 14 studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies demonstrated that statins had a significant effect on head and neck squamous cell carcinoma cell lines and influenced cell viability, cell cycle, cell death, and protein expression levels involved in pathways of carcinogenesis, which corroborates with the potential in vitro anti-tumor effects. It provides highlights about the biological mechanisms of statins used alone or associated with traditional therapy for cancer. CONCLUSIONS Though there are few studies on the topic, currently available evidence suggests that statins shows that preclinical experiments supports the potentiality of statin as an adjuvant agent in chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy approaches routinely used in the management of HNSCC and should undergo further clinical assessment.

negative: LXRS and FXR: the yin and yang of cholesterol and fat metabolism. Liver X receptors (LXRs) and farnesoid X receptor (FXR) are nuclear receptors that function as intracellular sensors for sterols and bile acids, respectively. In response to their ligands, these receptors induce transcriptional responses that maintain a balanced, finely tuned regulation of cholesterol and bile acid metabolism. LXRs also permit the efficient storage of carbohydrate- and fat-derived energy, whereas FXR activation results in an overall decrease in triglyceride levels and modulation of glucose metabolism. The elegant, dual interplay between these two receptor systems suggests that they coevolved to constitute a highly sensitive and efficient system for the maintenance of total body fat and cholesterol homeostasis. Emerging evidence suggests that the tissue-specific action of these receptors is also crucial for the proper function of the cardiovascular, immune, reproductive, endocrine pancreas, renal, and central nervous systems. Together, LXRs and FXR represent potential therapeutic targets for the treatment and prevention of numerous metabolic and lipid-related diseases.

negative: Dose-dependent effect of statins on the incidence of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery. BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. METHODS We assessed whether statin treatment is associated with a lower incidence of postoperative AKI in 2,104 consecutive patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft or valve surgery at the Minneapolis Veterans Administration Medical Center. Acute kidney injury was defined as absolute increase greater than 0.3 mg/dL or relative increase greater than 50% in serum creatinine from baseline, within 48 hours after surgery or requiring postoperative hemodialysis per AKI network. Propensity scores were utilized to adjust for the differences between the statin and the no-statin treatment groups. All statins were converted to equivalent-dose simvastatin and divided at the median to construct high-dose (≥40 mg) and low-dose (<40 mg) statin groups. RESULTS Of the 2,104 patients, 1,435 (68%) were taking statins (638 high-dose) and 495 (24%) developed AKI (25% high-dose vs 40% low-dose vs 35% no-statin; p = 0.014). Estimated preoperative glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.003), diabetes mellitus (p=0.02), valve surgery with or without coronary artery bypass graft (p = 0.024), cardiopulmonary bypass time (p = 0.001), and intraaortic balloon pump (p = 0.055) were independent predictors of AKI. After propensity adjustment statin treatment was not associated with postoperative AKI (odds ratio 0.79; 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 1.06; p = 0.11 for high-dose v. no-statin). After full adjustment for all independent predictors of AKI, the results did not change. Statins also had no effect on the incidence of postoperative hemodialysis (0.8% high-dose vs 1.9% low-dose vs 1% no-statin; p = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Statin treatment is not associated with a lower incidence of AKI after cardiac surgery.

negative: High-Density Lipoproteins Exert Pro-inflammatory Effects on Macrophages via Passive Cholesterol Depletion and PKC-NF-κB/STAT1-IRF1 Signaling. Membrane cholesterol modulates a variety of cell signaling pathways and functions. While cholesterol depletion by high-density lipoproteins (HDLs) has potent anti-inflammatory effects in various cell types, its effects on inflammatory responses in macrophages remain elusive. Here we show overt pro-inflammatory effects of HDL-mediated passive cholesterol depletion and lipid raft disruption in murine and human primary macrophages in vitro. These pro-inflammatory effects were confirmed in vivo in peritoneal macrophages from apoA-I transgenic mice, which have elevated HDL levels. In line with these findings, the innate immune responses required for clearance of P. aeruginosa bacterial infection in lung were compromised in mice with low HDL levels. Expression analysis, ChIP-PCR, and combinatorial pharmacological and genetic intervention studies unveiled that both native and reconstituted HDL enhance Toll-like-receptor-induced signaling by activating a PKC-NF-κB/STAT1-IRF1 axis, leading to increased inflammatory cytokine expression. HDL's pro-inflammatory activity supports proper functioning of macrophage immune responses.

negative: Simvastatin reduces CD40 expression in an experimental model of early arterialization of saphenous vein graft. BACKGROUND Saphenous vein graft (VG) failure occurs more frequently compared with arterial grafts, and graft thrombosis represents the main cause of early occlusion. Because CD40-CD40L pathway CD40 represents a culprit link between local inflammation and coagulation cascade, we investigate the role of CD40 and its soluble ligand (sCD40L) in the immediate in vitro response of VG to arterial pressures, and the potential effects of Simvastatin (Merck Sharp&Dohme, White-house Station, NJ) supplementation. METHODS Samples of saphenous vein and of internal mammary artery (IMA) were obtained from sixteen patients without history of statin therapy. Segments underwent pulsatile pressure distension and culture with or without supplementation of Simvastatin. CD40 and sCD40L were assessed in tissue lysate and in culture supernatant, respectively. sCD40L serum concentrations were also measured. RESULTS During the course of the experiment, the CD40 expression was significantly lower in IMA samples compared with both distended and not distended VG. Pressure distension up-regulated the production of CD40 in VG segments after 24 and 48 h. Statin supplementation significantly reduced the expression of CD40 in both venous (P < 0.001) and arterial samples (P < 0.001). This effect of Simvastatin was not affected by the treatment with L-NAME, but it was reversed by the addition of mevalonic acid. Mean sCD40L content in culture supernatants increased over time, suggesting that not only platelets but also the vessel wall is a source of CD40 and sCD40L. CONCLUSIONS Simvastatin treatment modulates endothelial CD40-sCD40L in both venous and arterial grafts, and therefore may represent a useful tool in the pharmacological prevention of graft failure.

negative: LDL inhibits the mediation of cholesterol efflux from macrophage foam cells by apoA-I-containing lipoproteins. A putative mechanism for foam cell formation. Although the accumulation of cholesterol in macrophages appears to be an initial step in atherogenesis, low-density lipoprotein (LDL), a major risk factor for atherosclerosis, does not promote cholesterol accumulation in macrophages in its native form. On the other hand, apolipoprotein (apo) A-I-containing lipoprotein removes cholesterol from cholesterol-loaded macrophages (foam cells) and prevents cholesterol from accumulating in the cells. We examined the effect of LDL on cholesterol removal by two species of apoA-I-containing lipoproteins, one containing only apoA-I (LpA-I) and the other containing apoA-I and apoA-II (LpA-I/A-II). When foam cells were incubated with LpA-I or LpA-I/A-II, cellular cholesterol mass was reduced. In contrast, when LDL was added, the cholesterol-reducing capacities of these lipoproteins were dose-dependently inhibited by LDL. In the presence of LDL, LpA-I and LpA-I/A-II removed free cholesterol preferentially from LDL rather than from the plasma membrane of foam cells. In addition, a fair amount of cellular cholesterol was directly moved to LDL rather than to LpA-I or LpA-I/A-II. The cellular cholesterol that moved to LDL was completely compensated for by the cholesterol influx from LDL to foam cells. Thus, net cholesterol efflux (a combination of influx and efflux) from foam cells was inhibited by LDL. These results, taken together, indicate that LDL may accelerate foam cell formation by inhibiting cholesterol removal from the cells and that elevated levels of plasma LDL may become a risk factor for atherosclerosis by inhibiting the function of LpA-I and LpA-I/A-II at the cellular level.

negative: Estimating low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by the Friedewald equation is adequate for classifying patients on the basis of nationally recommended cutpoints. We compared low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) values obtained by the Friedewald formula--i.e., total cholesterol minus high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol minus very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol (estimated as triglyceride divided by 5)--with those obtained by lipoprotein fractionation, using 4736 specimens. When triglycerides were less than 2.0 g/L, greater than 90% of estimated LDL cholesterol values were acceptable, within +/- 10% of measured values. At triglyceride concentrations of 2.0-4.0 g/L and 4.0-6.0 g/L, only 72% and 39%, respectively, of the estimates were acceptable. LDL values derived from an alternative formula, estimating VLDL as triglycerides divided by 6, were even less accurate. Nevertheless, the use of estimated LDL for risk classification based on the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel cutpoints of 1.30 and 1.60 g/L was considered acceptable. At triglyceride concentrations less than or equal to 5.0 g/L, 88% of classifications based on estimated LDL (using triglycerides divided by 5) were concordant with those by measured LDL. Eleven percent of classifications were shifted across one cutpoint, evenly distributed between high and low. Fewer than 1% of classifications, all with Type III hyperlipoproteinemia, were misclassified two cutpoints high. Refinements in the estimation model did not substantially improve LDL estimation or concordance of risk classification.

negative: Serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, metabolic profile, and breast cancer risk. BACKGROUND The prevalence of metabolic syndrome (obesity, glucose intolerance, low serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], high serum triglycerides, hypertension) is high and increasing in parallel with an increasing breast cancer incidence worldwide. HDL-C represents an important aspect of the syndrome, yet its role in breast cancer is still undefined. METHODS In two population-based screening surveys during 1977-1983 and 1985-1987, serum HDL-C was assayed enzymatically among 38,823 Norwegian women aged 17-54 years at entry. Height, weight, blood pressure, serum lipids, fat and energy intake, physical activity, parity, oral contraceptive use, hormone therapy use, alcohol intake, and tobacco use were also assessed. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to estimate the relative risk (RR) of breast cancer associated with serum HDL-C levels and to adjust for potential confounding variables. We performed stratified analyses to evaluate effect modification by body mass index (BMI) and menopausal status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 17.2 years, we identified 708 cases of invasive breast cancer. In multivariable analysis, the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer was inversely related to quartile of HDL-C (P(trend) =.02). Among women with HDL-C above 1.64 mmol/L (highest quartile) versus below 1.20 mmol/L (lowest quartile), the relative risk was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.58 to 0.97). The HDL-C association was confined to women in the heavier subgroup (BMI > or =25 kg/m2), for whom the relative risk of postmenopausal breast cancer in those with HDL-C above 1.64 mmol/L versus below 1.20 mmol/L was 0.43 (95% CI = 0.28 to 0.67; P(trend)<.001; P(interaction) =.001). CONCLUSION Low HDL-C, as part of the metabolic syndrome, is associated with increased postmenopausal breast cancer risk.

negative: Preventing coronary heart disease: B vitamins and homocysteine. The list of preventable and reversible risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease continues to grow. Cigarette smoking, high blood pressure, physical inactivity, elevated cholesterol, underlying lipoprotein abnormalities, lipoprotein(a), diabetes, overweight, male gender, and age are well-established risk factors. During the 1990s, there have been many reports associating elevated plasma homocysteine levels with arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease and consistent evidence that dietary and supplemental folic acid can reduce homocysteine levels.1 2   The article by Robinson and colleagues3 in this issue of Circulation presents further evidence of the importance of homocysteine and suggestive evidence that plasma folate and plasma pyrixodal-l-phosphate (vitamin B6) are protective factors. Their study is part of the European Concerted Action Project,4 which examined 750 patients younger than age 60 with diagnoses within the previous 12 months of coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral vascular disease and 800 healthy control subjects. The patient groups were young (47 years for cases and 44 years for control subjects) and heterogeneous, with nonfatal clinical events or symptoms of arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease supported by ECG, angiographic, or Doppler evidence; the study involved 19 centers in nine European countries. Men in the highest quintile for fasting total homocysteine (tHcy), compared with the remainder of the population, had an estimated relative risk of 2.2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.6 to 2.9), with a striking dose-response relationship and a more-than-multiplicative interaction with cigarette smoking and high blood pressure on vascular disease risk4 ; the corresponding estimated relative risk for coronary heart disease was similar (2.0; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.8). (tHcy is the sum of homocysteine and homocysteinyl moieties of oxidized disulfides, homocystine, and cysteine- homocysteine. ) Robinson and colleagues3 examined three B vitamins in detail to determine their effects on fasting and post–methionine-loading tHcy levels and any independent effects on cardiovascular disease …

negative: Statin use and risk of gallstone disease followed by cholecystectomy. CONTEXT Gallstone disease is a leading cause of morbidity in western countries and carries a high economic burden. Statins decrease hepatic cholesterol biosynthesis and may therefore lower the risk of cholesterol gallstones by reducing the cholesterol concentration in the bile. Data on this association in humans are scarce. OBJECTIVE To study the association between the use of statins, fibrates, or other lipid-lowering agents and the risk of incident gallstone disease followed by cholecystectomy. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Case-control analysis using the UK-based General Practice Research Database. Incident patients between 1994 and 2008 and 4 controls per each patient were identified and matched on age, sex, general practice, calendar time, and years of history in the database. The study population was 76% women and the mean (SD) age was 53.4 (15.0) years at the index date. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of developing gallstones followed by cholecystectomy in relation to exposure to lipid-lowering agents, stratified by exposure timing and duration. The ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were adjusted for smoking, body mass index, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and estrogen use. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE The adjusted OR (AOR) for developing gallstone disease followed by cholecystectomy in relation to exposure to lipid-lowering agents. RESULTS A total of 27,035 patients with cholecystectomy and 106,531 matched controls were identified, including 2396 patients and 8868 controls who had statin use. Compared with nonuse, current statin use (last prescription recorded within 90 days before the first-time diagnosis of the disease) was 1.0% for patients and 0.8% for controls (AOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.95-1.27) for 1 to 4 prescriptions; 2.6% vs 2.4% (AOR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.77-0.93) for 5 to 19 prescriptions, and 3.2% vs 3.7% (AOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.59-0.70) for 20 or more prescriptions. The AORs for current use of statins defined as 20 or more prescriptions were similar (around 0.6) across age, sex, and body mass index categories, and across the statin class. CONCLUSION Long-term use of statins was associated with a decreased risk of gallstones followed by cholecystectomy.

negative: Midlife Serum Cholesterol and Increased Risk of Alzheimer’s and Vascular Dementia Three Decades Later Aims: To investigate midlife cholesterol in relation to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and vascular dementia (VaD) in a large multiethnic cohort of women and men. Methods: The Kaiser Permanente Northern California Medical Group (healthcare delivery organization) formed the database for this study. The 9,844 participants underwent detailed health evaluations during 1964–1973 at ages 40–45 years; they were still members of the health plan in 1994. AD and VaD were ascertained by medical records between 1 January 1994 and 1 June 2007. Cox proportional hazards models – adjusted for age, education, race/ethnic group, sex, midlife diabetes, hypertension, BMI and late-life stroke – were conducted. Results: In total, 469 participants had AD and 127 had VaD. With desirable cholesterol levels (<200 mg/dl) as a reference, hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI for AD were 1.23 (0.97–1.55) and 1.57 (1.23–2.01) for borderline (200–239 mg/dl) and high cholesterol (≥240 mg/dl), respectively. HR and 95% CI for VaD were 1.50 (1.01–2.23) for borderline and 1.26 (0.82–1.96) for high cholesterol. Further analyses for AD (cholesterol quartiles, 1st quartile reference) indicated that cholesterol levels >220 mg/dl were a significant risk factor: HR were 1.31 (1.01–1.71; 3rd quartile, 221–248 mg/dl) and 1.58 (1.22–2.06; 4th quartile, 249–500 mg/dl). Conclusion: Midlife serum total cholesterol was associated with an increased risk of AD and VaD. Even moderately elevated cholesterol increased dementia risk. Dementia risk factors need to be addressed as early as midlife, before underlying disease(s) or symptoms appear.

negative: Control of cellular cholesterol efflux by the nuclear oxysterol receptor LXR alpha. LXR alpha is a nuclear receptor that has previously been shown to regulate the metabolic conversion of cholesterol to bile acids. Here we define a role for this transcription factor in the control of cellular cholesterol efflux. We demonstrate that retroviral expression of LXR alpha in NIH 3T3 fibroblasts or RAW264.7 macrophages and/or treatment of these cells with oxysterol ligands of LXR results in 7- to 30-fold induction of the mRNA encoding the putative cholesterol/phospholipid transporter ATP-binding cassette (ABC)A1. In contrast, induction of ABCA1 mRNA in response to oxysterols is attenuated in cells that constitutively express dominant-negative forms of LXR alpha or LXR beta that lack the AF2 transcriptional activation domain. We further demonstrate that expression of LXR alpha in NIH 3T3 fibroblasts and/or treatment of these cells with oxysterols is sufficient to stimulate cholesterol efflux to extracellular apolipoprotein AI. The ability of oxysterol ligands of LXR to stimulate efflux is dramatically reduced in Tangier fibroblasts, which carry a loss of function mutation in the ABCA1 gene. Taken together, these results indicate that cellular cholesterol efflux is controlled, at least in part, at the level of transcription by a nuclear receptor-signaling pathway. They suggest a model in which activation of LXRs by oxysterols in response to cellular sterol loading leads to induction of the ABCA1 transporter and the stimulation of lipid efflux to extracellular acceptors. These findings have important implications for our understanding of mammalian cholesterol homeostasis and suggest new opportunities for pharmacological regulation of cellular lipid metabolism.

negative: Risk of hospitalization or death from ischemic heart disease among British vegetarians and nonvegetarians: results from the EPIC-Oxford cohort study. BACKGROUND Few previous prospective studies have examined differences in incident ischemic heart disease (IHD) risk between vegetarians and nonvegetarians. OBJECTIVE The objective was to examine the association of a vegetarian diet with risk of incident (nonfatal and fatal) IHD. DESIGN A total of 44,561 men and women living in England and Scotland who were enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Oxford study, of whom 34% consumed a vegetarian diet at baseline, were part of the analysis. Incident cases of IHD were identified through linkage with hospital records and death certificates. Serum lipids and blood pressure measurements were available for 1519 non cases, who were matched to IHD cases by sex and age. IHD risk by vegetarian status was estimated by using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS After an average follow-up of 11.6 y, there were 1235 IHD cases (1066 hospital admissions and 169 deaths). Compared with nonvegetarians, vegetarians had a lower mean BMI [in kg/m(2); -1.2 (95% CI: -1.3, -1.1)], non-HDL-cholesterol concentration [-0.45 (95% CI: -0.60, -0.30) mmol/L], and systolic blood pressure [-3.3 (95% CI: -5.9, -0.7) mm Hg]. Vegetarians had a 32% lower risk (HR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.81) of IHD than did nonvegetarians, which was only slightly attenuated after adjustment for BMI and did not differ materially by sex, age, BMI, smoking, or the presence of IHD risk factors. CONCLUSION Consuming a vegetarian diet was associated with lower IHD risk, a finding that is probably mediated by differences in non-HDL cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure.

negative: Risk of breast cancer in relation to blood lipids: a prospective study of 31,209 Norwegian women In this prospective study, the relationship between blood lipids and breast cancer risk was examined. Between 1977 and 1983, 31,209 Norwegian women, 20 to 54 years of age, attended a health screening carried out by the Norwegian National Health Screening Services. The screening consisted of a questionnaire, anthropometric measurements, and nonfasting blood drawn for analysis of total serum cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol was calculated by the Friedewald's formula. During the seven to 13 years of follow-up, 302 breast cancer cases were identified by linkage to the Norwegian Cancer Registry. After adjustment for some of the known risk factors of breast cancer, the relative risk of women in the highest quartile of TC compared with women in the lowest quartile was 0.87 (95 percent confidence interval [CI]=0.61–1.23). The corresponding relative risks and CIs were 0.82 (CI=0.58–1.16) for TG, 1.02 (CI=0.73–1.42) for HDL, and 0.93 (CI=0.67–1.29) for LDL. No association between breast cancer risk and blood lipids was found in the total population, nor when the data were divided into those diagnosed before or after the age of 50 as a dividing line between pre- and postmenopausal diagnosis.

negative: Long term pharmacotherapy for obesity and overweight: updated meta-analysis. OBJECTIVE To summarise the long term efficacy of anti-obesity drugs in reducing weight and improving health status. DESIGN Updated meta-analysis of randomised trials. DATA SOURCES Medline, Embase, the Cochrane controlled trials register, the Current Science meta-register of controlled trials, and reference lists of identified articles. All data sources were searched from December 2002 (end date of last search) to December 2006. STUDIES REVIEWED Double blind randomised placebo controlled trials of approved anti-obesity drugs used in adults (age over 18) for one year or longer. RESULTS 30 trials of one to four years' duration met the inclusion criteria: 16 orlistat (n=10 631 participants), 10 sibutramine (n=2623), and four rimonabant (n=6365). Of these, 14 trials were new and 16 had previously been identified. Attrition rates averaged 30-40%. Compared with placebo, orlistat reduced weight by 2.9 kg (95% confidence interval 2.5 kg to 3.2 kg), sibutramine by 4.2 kg (3.6 kg to 4.7 kg), and rimonabant by 4.7 kg (4.1 kg to 5.3 kg). Patients receiving active drug treatment were significantly more likely to achieve 5% and 10% weight loss thresholds. Orlistat reduced the incidence of diabetes and improved concentrations of total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood pressure, and glycaemic control in patients with diabetes but increased rates of gastrointestinal side effects and slightly lowered concentrations of high density lipoprotein. Sibutramine improved [corrected] concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides [corrected] Rimonabant improved concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides, blood pressure, and glycaemic control in patients with diabetes but increased the risk of mood disorders. CONCLUSIONS Orlistat, sibutramine, and rimonabant modestly reduce weight, have differing effects on cardiovascular risk profiles, and have specific adverse effects.

negative: Fibroblast Growth Factor 21 Prevents Atherosclerosis by Suppression of Hepatic Sterol Regulatory Element-Binding Protein-2 and Induction of Adiponectin in Mice BACKGROUND Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a metabolic hormone with pleiotropic effects on glucose and lipid metabolism and insulin sensitivity. It acts as a key downstream target of both peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α and γ, the agonists of which have been used for lipid lowering and insulin sensitization, respectively. However, the role of FGF21 in the cardiovascular system remains elusive. METHODS AND RESULTS The roles of FGF21 in atherosclerosis were investigated by evaluating the impact of FGF21 deficiency and replenishment with recombinant FGF21 in apolipoprotein E(-/-) mice. FGF21 deficiency causes a marked exacerbation of atherosclerotic plaque formation and premature death in apolipoprotein E(-/-) mice, which is accompanied by hypoadiponectinemia and severe hypercholesterolemia. Replenishment of FGF21 protects against atherosclerosis in apolipoprotein E(-/-)mice via 2 independent mechanisms, inducing the adipocyte production of adiponectin, which in turn acts on the blood vessels to inhibit neointima formation and macrophage inflammation, and suppressing the hepatic expression of the transcription factor sterol regulatory element-binding protein-2, thereby leading to reduced cholesterol synthesis and attenuation of hypercholesterolemia. Chronic treatment with adiponectin partially reverses atherosclerosis without obvious effects on hypercholesterolemia in FGF21-deficient apolipoprotein E(-/-) mice. By contrast, the cholesterol-lowering effects of FGF21 are abrogated by hepatic expression of sterol regulatory element-binding protein-2. CONCLUSIONS FGF21 protects against atherosclerosis via fine tuning the multiorgan crosstalk among liver, adipose tissue, and blood vessels.

negative: The Drosophila DHR96 nuclear receptor binds cholesterol and regulates cholesterol homeostasis. Cholesterol homeostasis is required to maintain normal cellular function and avoid the deleterious effects of hypercholesterolemia. Here we show that the Drosophila DHR96 nuclear receptor binds cholesterol and is required for the coordinate transcriptional response of genes that are regulated by cholesterol and involved in cholesterol uptake, trafficking, and storage. DHR96 mutants die when grown on low levels of cholesterol and accumulate excess cholesterol when maintained on a high-cholesterol diet. The cholesterol accumulation phenotype can be attributed to misregulation of npc1b, an ortholog of the mammalian Niemann-Pick C1-like 1 gene NPC1L1, which is essential for dietary cholesterol uptake. These studies define DHR96 as a central regulator of cholesterol homeostasis.

negative: Cost-effectiveness of 10-Year Risk Thresholds for Initiation of Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease. IMPORTANCE The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines have wide-scale implications for treating adults without history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins. OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of various 10-year ASCVD risk thresholds that could be used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Microsimulation model, including lifetime time horizon, US societal perspective, 3% discount rate for costs, and health outcomes. In the model, hypothetical individuals from a representative US population aged 40 to 75 years received statin treatment, experienced ASCVD events, and died from ASCVD-related or non-ASCVD-related causes based on ASCVD natural history and statin treatment parameters. Data sources for model parameters included National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, large clinical trials and meta-analyses for statin benefits and treatment, and other published sources. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Estimated ASCVD events prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS In the base-case scenario, the current ASCVD threshold of 7.5% or higher, which was estimated to be associated with 48% of adults treated with statins, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,000/QALY compared with a 10% or higher threshold. More lenient ASCVD thresholds of 4.0% or higher (61% of adults treated) and 3.0% or higher (67% of adults treated) had ICERs of $81,000/QALY and $140,000/QALY, respectively. Shifting from a 7.5% or higher ASCVD risk threshold to a 3.0% or higher ASCVD risk threshold was estimated to be associated with an additional 161,560 cardiovascular disease events averted. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in the disutility associated with taking a pill daily, statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a higher than 93% chance that the optimal ASCVD threshold was 5.0% or lower using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this microsimulation model of US adults aged 45 to 75 years [corrected], the current 10-year ASCVD risk threshold (≥7.5% risk threshold) used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines has an acceptable cost-effectiveness profile (ICER, $37,000/QALY), but more lenient ASCVD thresholds would be optimal using cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY (≥4.0% risk threshold) or $150,000/QALY (≥3.0% risk threshold). The optimal ASCVD threshold was sensitive to patient preferences for taking a pill daily, changes to statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes.

negative: Statin prophylaxis and inflammatory mediators following cardiopulmonary bypass: a systematic review INTRODUCTION Induction of an inflammatory response is thought to have a significant role in the complications that follow cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). The statin drugs are increasingly being recognized as having potent anti-inflammatory effects and hence have potential to influence an important mechanism of injury in CPB, although there is no current confirmation that this is indeed the case. Our objective was to systematically review if pre-operative prophylactic statin therapy, compared with placebo or standard of care, can decrease the inflammatory response in people undergoing heart surgery with CPB. METHODS We performed a systematic and comprehensive literature search for all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of open heart surgery with CPB in adults or children who received prophylactic statin treatment prior to CPB, with reported outcomes which included markers of inflammation. Two authors independently identified eligible studies, extracted data, and assessed study quality using standardized instruments. Weighted mean difference (WMD) was the primary summary statistic with data pooled using a random effects model. Descriptive analysis was used when data could not be pooled. RESULTS Eight RCTs were included in the review, with the number of trials for each inflammatory outcome being even more limited. Pooled data demonstrated benefit with the use of statin to attenuate the post-CPB increase in interleukins 6 and 8 (IL-6, IL-8), peak high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) post-CPB (WMD [95% confidence interval (CI)] -23.5 pg/ml [-36.6 to -10.5]; -23.4 pg/ml [-35.8 to -11.0]; -15.3 mg/L [CI -26.9 to -3.7]; -2.10 pg/ml [-3.83 to -0.37] respectively). Very limited RCT evidence suggests that prophylactic statin therapy may also decrease adhesion molecules following CPB including neutrophil CD11b and soluble P (sP)-selectin. CONCLUSIONS Although the RCT evidence may suggest a reduction in post-CPB inflammation by statin therapy, the evidence is not definitive due to significant limitations. Several of the trials were not methodologically rigorous and statin intervention was highly variable in this small number of studies. This systematic review demonstrates that there is a significant gap that exists in the current literature in regards to the potential anti-inflammatory effect of statin therapy prior to CPB.

negative: Association of plasma resistin with glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria in hypertensive adults. Resistin, a recently discovered proinflammatory cytokine, has been variably associated with insulin resistance, inflammation, and renal dysfunction. We investigated the association of plasma resistin with estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria in 1575 hypertensive adults without known coronary heart disease or stroke (857 blacks and 718 non-Hispanic whites). Resistin was measured by a solid phase sandwich immunoassay, estimated glomerular filtration rate was estimated from serum creatinine, and albuminuria was expressed as urine albumin:creatinine ratio. After adjustment for coronary heart disease risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, smoking history, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol) and use of renin-angiotensin blockers and statins, higher plasma resistin levels were associated with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate in both ethnic groups (each P<0.0001); the association remained significant after further adjustment for a marker of insulin resistance (homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance) and a marker of inflammation (plasma C-reactive protein) and was seen in subjects with and without diabetes (each P<0.0001) in both ethnic groups. Higher plasma resistin levels were associated with a higher urine albumin:creatinine ratio in black subjects with diabetes (P<0.0001) and non-Hispanic white subjects with diabetes (P=0.032), independent of coronary heart disease risk factors, hypertension medication use, and statin use; the association remained significant after additional adjustment for homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance and C-reactive protein. In adults with hypertension, higher circulating resistin levels were associated with a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and with increased urine albumin:creatinine ratio in the presence of concomitant diabetes. This association was independent of coronary heart disease risk factors and markers of insulin resistance and inflammation.

negative: Nef induces multiple genes involved in cholesterol synthesis and uptake in human immunodeficiency virus type 1-infected T cells. Several recent reports indicate that cholesterol might play an important role in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) replication. We investigated the effects of HIV-1 infection on cholesterol biosynthesis and uptake using microarrays. HIV-1 increased gene expression of cholesterol genes in both transformed T-cell lines and primary CD4(+) T cells. Consistent with our microarray data, (14)C-labeled mevalonate and acetate incorporation was increased in HIV-1-infected cells. Our data also demonstrate that changes in cholesterol biosynthesis and uptake are only observed in the presence of functional Nef, suggesting that increased cholesterol synthesis may contribute to Nef-mediated enhancement of virion infectivity and viral replication.

negative: Metabolomics study of the therapeutic mechanism of Schisandra Chinensis lignans in diet-induced hyperlipidemia mice BACKGROUND Schisandra, a globally distributed plant, has been widely applied for the treatment of diseases such as hyperlipidemia, fatty liver and obesity in China. In the present work, a rapid resolution liquid chromatography coupled with quadruple-time-of-flight mass spectrometry (RRLC-Q-TOF-MS)-based metabolomics was conducted to investigate the intervention effect of Schisandra chinensis lignans (SCL) on hyperlipidemia mice induced by high-fat diet (HFD). METHODS Hyperlipidemia mice were orally administered with SCL (100 mg/kg) once a day for 4 weeks. Serum biochemistry assay of triglyceride (TG), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-c) was conducted to confirm the treatment of SCL on lipid regulation. Metabolomics analysis on serum samples was carried out, and principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) were carried out for the pattern recognition and characteristic metabolites identification. The relative levels of critical regulatory factors of liver lipid metabolism, sterol regulatory element-binding proteins (SREBPs) and its related gene expressions were measured by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for investigating the underlying mechanism. RESULTS Oral administration of SCL significantly decreased the serum levels of TC, TG and LDL-c and increased the serum level of HDL-c in the hyperlipidemia mice, and no effect of SCL on blood lipid levels was observed in control mice. Serum samples were scattered in the PCA scores plots in response to the control, HFD and SCL group. Totally, thirteen biomarkers were identified and nine of them were recovered to the normal levels after SCL treatment. Based on the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathways analysis, the anti-hyperlipidemia mechanisms of SCL may be involved in the following metabolic pathways: tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle, synthesis of ketone body and cholesterol, choline metabolism and fatty acid metabolism. Meanwhile, SCL significantly inhibited the mRNA expression level of hepatic lipogenesis genes such as SREBP-1c, fatty acid synthase (FAS) and acetyl-CoA carboxylase (ACC), and decreased the mRNA expression of liver X receptor α (LXRα). Moreover, SCL also significantly decreased the expression level of SREBP-2 and 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) in the liver of hyperlipidemia mice. CONCLUSION Anti-hyperlipidemia effect of SCL was confirmed by both serum biochemistry and metabolomics analysis. The mechanism may be related to the down-regulation of LXRα/SREBP-1c/FAS/ACC and SREBP2/HMGCR signaling pathways.

negative: Effects of FXR in foam-cell formation and atherosclerosis development. Farnesoid X receptor (FXR), a bile-acid-activated member of the nuclear receptor superfamily, is essential in regulating bile-acid, cholesterol, and triglyceride homeostasis. Disruption of the FXR gene in mice results in a proatherosclerotic lipid profile with increased serum cholesterols and triglycerides. However, the role of FXR in foam-cell formation and atherosclerosis development remains unclear. The current study showed that the peritoneal macrophages isolated from FXR-null mice took up less oxidized LDL-cholesterol (oxLDL-C), which was accompanied by a marked reduction in CD36 expression in these cells. This result appears to be FXR-independent, as FXR was not detected in the peritoneal macrophages. To assess to what extent FXR modulates atherosclerosis development, FXR/ApoE double-null mice were generated. Female mice were used for atherosclerosis analysis. Compared to ApoE-null mice, the FXR/ApoE double-null mice were found to have less atherosclerotic lesion area in the aorta, despite a further increase in the serum cholesterols and triglycerides. Our results indicate that disruption of the FXR gene could attenuate atherosclerosis development, most likely resulting from reduced oxLDL-C uptake by macrophages. Our study cautions the use of serum lipid levels as a surrogate marker to determine the efficiency of FXR modulators in treating hyperlipidemia.

negative: The effects of LY2405319, an FGF21 analog, in obese human subjects with type 2 diabetes. Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) is a recently discovered metabolic regulator. Exogenous FGF21 produces beneficial metabolic effects in animal models; however, the translation of these observations to humans has not been tested. Here, we studied the effects of LY2405319 (LY), a variant of FGF21, in a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind proof-of-concept trial in patients with obesity and type 2 diabetes. Patients received placebo or 3, 10, or 20 mg of LY daily for 28 days. LY treatment produced significant improvements in dyslipidemia, including decreases in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides and increases in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and a shift to a potentially less atherogenic apolipoprotein concentration profile. Favorable effects on body weight, fasting insulin, and adiponectin were also detected. However, only a trend toward glucose lowering was observed. These results indicate that FGF21 is bioactive in humans and suggest that FGF21-based therapies may be effective for the treatment of selected metabolic disorders.

negative: MicroRNA-148a regulates LDL receptor and ABCA1 expression to control circulating lipoprotein levels The hepatic low-density lipoprotein receptor (LDLR) pathway is essential for clearing circulating LDL cholesterol (LDL-C). Whereas the transcriptional regulation of LDLR is well characterized, the post-transcriptional mechanisms that govern LDLR expression are just beginning to emerge. Here we develop a high-throughput genome-wide screening assay to systematically identify microRNAs (miRNAs) that regulate LDLR activity in human hepatic cells. From this screen we identified and characterized miR-148a as a negative regulator of LDLR expression and activity and defined a sterol regulatory element–binding protein 1 (SREBP1)-mediated pathway through which miR-148a regulates LDL-C uptake. In mice, inhibition of miR-148a increased hepatic LDLR expression and decreased plasma LDL-C. Moreover, we found that miR-148a regulates hepatic expression of ATP-binding cassette, subfamily A, member 1 (ABCA1) and circulating high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels in vivo. These studies uncover a role for miR-148a as a key regulator of hepatic LDL-C clearance through direct modulation of LDLR expression and demonstrate the therapeutic potential of inhibiting miR-148a to ameliorate an elevated LDL-C/HDL-C ratio, a prominent risk factor for cardiovascular disease.

negative: Report of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Workshop on Lipoprotein(a) and Cardiovascular Disease: recent advances and future directions. It has been estimated that approximately 37% of the US population judged to be at high risk for developing coronary artery disease (CAD), based on the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, have increased plasma lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)], whereas Lp(a) is increased in only 14% of those judged to be at low risk. Therefore, the importance of establishing a better understanding of the relative contribution of Lp(a) to the risk burden for CAD and other forms of vascular disease, as well as the underlying mechanisms, is clearly evident. However, the structural complexity and size heterogeneity of Lp(a) have hindered the development of immunoassays to accurately measure Lp(a) concentrations in plasma. The large intermethod variation in Lp(a) values has made it difficult to compare data from different clinical studies and to achieve a uniform interpretation of clinical data. A workshop was recently convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) to evaluate our current understanding of Lp(a) as a risk factor for atherosclerotic disorders; to determine how future studies could be designed to more clearly define the extent to which, and mechanisms by which, Lp(a) participates in these processes; and to present the results of the NHLBI-supported program for the evaluation and standardization of Lp(a) immunoassays. This report includes the most recent data presented by the workshop participants and the resulting practical and research recommendations.

negative: Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor ligand bezafibrate for prevention of type 2 diabetes mellitus in patients with coronary artery disease. BACKGROUND Recent studies have shown that type 2 diabetes is preventable by both lifestyle interventions and medications that influence primary glucose metabolism. Whether pharmacological interventions that influence primary lipid metabolism can also delay development of type 2 diabetes is unknown. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor ligand bezafibrate on the progression of impaired fasting glucose phase to type 2 diabetes in patients with coronary artery disease over a 6.2-year follow-up period. METHODS AND RESULTS The study sample comprised 303 nondiabetic patients 42 to 74 years of age with a fasting blood glucose level of 110 to 125 mg/dL (6.1 to 6.9 mmol/L). The patients received either 400 mg bezafibrate retard (156 patients) or placebo (147 patients) once a day. No patients were using statins, and use of ACE inhibitors, which also reduce diabetes incidence, was relatively low. During follow-up, development of new-onset diabetes was recorded in 146 patients: in 80 (54.4%) from the placebo group and 66 (42.3%) from the bezafibrate group (P=0.04). The mean time until onset of new diabetes was significantly delayed in patients on bezafibrate compared with patients on placebo: 4.6+/-2.3 versus 3.8+/-2.6 years (P=0.004). Multivariate analysis identified bezafibrate treatment as an independent predictor of reduced risk of new diabetes development (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.99). Other significant variables associated with future overt type 2 diabetes in patients with impaired fasting glucose were total cholesterol level (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI 1.0 to 1.51) and body mass index (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.16). CONCLUSIONS Bezafibrate reduces the incidence and delays the onset of type 2 diabetes in patients with impaired fasting glucose. Whether the combination of bezafibrate with other recommended drugs for secondary prevention (statins and ACE inhibitors) would be as efficacious as suggested by our results remains to be determined.

negative: Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors. Design Prospective open cohort study. Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database. Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline. Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records. Results 363 565 incident cases of cardiovascular disease were identified in the derivation cohort during follow-up arising from 50.8 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met the model inclusion criteria except for HIV/AIDS, which was not statistically significant. The models had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, the algorithm explained 59.6% of the variation in time to diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (R2, with higher values indicating more variation), and the D statistic was 2.48 and Harrell's C statistic was 0.88 (both measures of discrimination, with higher values indicating better discrimination). The corresponding values for men were 54.8%, 2.26, and 0.86. Overall performance of the updated QRISK3 algorithms was similar to the QRISK2 algorithms. Conclusion Updated QRISK3 risk prediction models were developed and validated. The inclusion of additional clinical variables in QRISK3 (chronic kidney disease, a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, SLE, atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and erectile dysfunction) can help enable doctors to identify those at most risk of heart disease and stroke.