query: In young and middle-aged adults, current or remote uses of ADHD medications do not increase the risk of serious cardiovascular events.

positive: ADHD medications and risk of serious cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged adults. CONTEXT More than 1.5 million US adults use stimulants and other medications labeled for treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). These agents can increase heart rate and blood pressure, raising concerns about their cardiovascular safety. OBJECTIVE To examine whether current use of medications prescribed primarily to treat ADHD is associated with increased risk of serious cardiovascular events in young and middle-aged adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective, population-based cohort study using electronic health care records from 4 study sites (OptumInsight Epidemiology, Tennessee Medicaid, Kaiser Permanente California, and the HMO Research Network), starting in 1986 at 1 site and ending in 2005 at all sites, with additional covariate assessment using 2007 survey data. Participants were adults aged 25 through 64 years with dispensed prescriptions for methylphenidate, amphetamine, or atomoxetine at baseline. Each medication user (n = 150,359) was matched to 2 nonusers on study site, birth year, sex, and calendar year (443,198 total users and nonusers). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Serious cardiovascular events, including myocardial infarction (MI), sudden cardiac death (SCD), or stroke, with comparison between current or new users and remote users to account for potential healthy-user bias. RESULTS During 806,182 person-years of follow-up (median, 1.3 years per person), 1357 cases of MI, 296 cases of SCD, and 575 cases of stroke occurred. There were 107,322 person-years of current use (median, 0.33 years), with a crude incidence per 1000 person-years of 1.34 (95% CI, 1.14-1.57) for MI, 0.30 (95% CI, 0.20-0.42) for SCD, and 0.56 (95% CI, 0.43-0.72) for stroke. The multivariable-adjusted rate ratio (RR) of serious cardiovascular events for current use vs nonuse of ADHD medications was 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.96). Among new users of ADHD medications, the adjusted RR was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.63-0.94). The adjusted RR for current use vs remote use was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.86-1.24); for new use vs remote use, the adjusted RR was 1.02 (95% CI, 0.82-1.28); the upper limit of 1.28 corresponds to an additional 0.19 events per 1000 person-years at ages 25-44 years and 0.77 events per 1000 person-years at ages 45-64 years. CONCLUSIONS Among young and middle-aged adults, current or new use of ADHD medications, compared with nonuse or remote use, was not associated with an increased risk of serious cardiovascular events. Apparent protective associations likely represent healthy-user bias.

negative: Pharmacological interventions for smoking cessation: an overview and network meta-analysis. BACKGROUND Smoking is the leading preventable cause of illness and premature death worldwide. Some medications have been proven to help people to quit, with three licensed for this purpose in Europe and the USA: nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), bupropion, and varenicline. Cytisine (a treatment pharmacologically similar to varenicline) is also licensed for use in Russia and some of the former socialist economy countries. Other therapies, including nortriptyline, have also been tested for effectiveness. OBJECTIVES How do NRT, bupropion and varenicline compare with placebo and with each other in achieving long-term abstinence (six months or longer)? How do the remaining treatments compare with placebo in achieving long-term abstinence? How do the risks of adverse and serious adverse events (SAEs) compare between the treatments, and are there instances where the harms may outweigh the benefits? METHODS The overview is restricted to Cochrane reviews, all of which include randomised trials. Participants are usually adult smokers, but we exclude reviews of smoking cessation for pregnant women and in particular disease groups or specific settings. We cover nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), antidepressants (bupropion and nortriptyline), nicotine receptor partial agonists (varenicline and cytisine), anxiolytics, selective type 1 cannabinoid receptor antagonists (rimonabant), clonidine, lobeline, dianicline, mecamylamine, Nicobrevin, opioid antagonists, nicotine vaccines, and silver acetate. Our outcome for benefit is continuous or prolonged abstinence at least six months from the start of treatment. Our outcome for harms is the incidence of serious adverse events associated with each of the treatments. We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR) in The Cochrane Library, for any reviews with 'smoking' in the title, abstract or keyword fields. The last search was conducted in November 2012. We assessed methodological quality using a revised version of the AMSTAR scale. For NRT, bupropion and varenicline we conducted network meta-analyses, comparing each with the others and with placebo for benefit, and varenicline and bupropion for risks of serious adverse events. MAIN RESULTS We identified 12 treatment-specific reviews. The analyses covered 267 studies, involving 101,804 participants. Both NRT and bupropion were superior to placebo (odds ratios (OR) 1.84; 95% credible interval (CredI) 1.71 to 1.99, and 1.82; 95% CredI 1.60 to 2.06 respectively). Varenicline increased the odds of quitting compared with placebo (OR 2.88; 95% CredI 2.40 to 3.47). Head-to-head comparisons between bupropion and NRT showed equal efficacy (OR 0.99; 95% CredI 0.86 to 1.13). Varenicline was superior to single forms of NRT (OR 1.57; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.91), and to bupropion (OR 1.59; 95% CredI 1.29 to 1.96). Varenicline was more effective than nicotine patch (OR 1.51; 95% CredI 1.22 to 1.87), than nicotine gum (OR 1.72; 95% CredI 1.38 to 2.13), and than 'other' NRT (inhaler, spray, tablets, lozenges; OR 1.42; 95% CredI 1.12 to 1.79), but was not more effective than combination NRT (OR 1.06; 95% CredI 0.75 to 1.48). Combination NRT also outperformed single formulations. The four categories of NRT performed similarly against each other, apart from 'other' NRT, which was marginally more effective than NRT gum (OR 1.21; 95% CredI 1.01 to 1.46). Cytisine (a nicotine receptor partial agonist) returned positive findings (risk ratio (RR) 3.98; 95% CI 2.01 to 7.87), without significant adverse events or SAEs. Across the 82 included and excluded bupropion trials, our estimate of six seizures in the bupropion arms versus none in the placebo arms was lower than the expected rate (1:1000), at about 1:1500. SAE meta-analysis of the bupropion studies demonstrated no excess of neuropsychiatric (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.31 to 2.50) or cardiovascular events (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.59). SAE meta-analysis of 14 varenicline trials found no difference between the varenicline and placebo arms (RR 1.06; 95% CI 0.72 to 1.55), and subgroup analyses detected no significant excess of neuropsychiatric events (RR 0.53; 95% CI 0.17 to 1.67), or of cardiac events (RR 1.26; 95% CI 0.62 to 2.56). Nortriptyline increased the chances of quitting (RR 2.03; 95% CI 1.48 to 2.78). Neither nortriptyline nor bupropion were shown to enhance the effect of NRT compared with NRT alone. Clonidine increased the chances of quitting (RR 1.63; 95% CI 1.22 to 2.18), but this was offset by a dose-dependent rise in adverse events. Mecamylamine in combination with NRT may increase the chances of quitting, but the current evidence is inconclusive. Other treatments failed to demonstrate a benefit compared with placebo. Nicotine vaccines are not yet licensed for use as an aid to smoking cessation or relapse prevention. Nicobrevin's UK license is now revoked, and the manufacturers of rimonabant, taranabant and dianicline are no longer supporting the development or testing of these treatments. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS NRT, bupropion, varenicline and cytisine have been shown to improve the chances of quitting. Combination NRT and varenicline are equally effective as quitting aids. Nortriptyline also improves the chances of quitting. On current evidence, none of the treatments appear to have an incidence of adverse events that would mitigate their use. Further research is warranted into the safety of varenicline and into cytisine's potential as an effective and affordable treatment, but not into the efficacy and safety of NRT.

negative: Cardiovascular risk factors in childhood and carotid artery intima-media thickness in adulthood: the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. CONTEXT Exposure to cardiovascular risk factors during childhood and adolescence may be associated with the development of atherosclerosis later in life. OBJECTIVE To study the relationship between cardiovascular risk factors measured in childhood and adolescence and common carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT), a marker of preclinical atherosclerosis, measured in adulthood. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Population-based, prospective cohort study conducted at 5 centers in Finland among 2229 white adults aged 24 to 39 years who were examined in childhood and adolescence at ages 3 to 18 years in 1980 and reexamined 21 years later, between September 2001 and January 2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Association between cardiovascular risk variables (levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], and triglycerides; LDL-C/HDL-C ratio; systolic and diastolic blood pressure; body mass index; smoking) measured in childhood and adulthood and common carotid artery IMT measured in adulthood. RESULTS In multivariable models adjusted for age and sex, IMT in adulthood was significantly associated with childhood LDL-C levels (P =.001), systolic blood pressure (P<.001), body mass index (P =.007), and smoking (P =.02), and with adult systolic blood pressure (P<.001), body mass index (P<.001), and smoking (P =.004). The number of risk factors measured in 12- to 18-year-old adolescents, including high levels (ie, extreme age- and sex-specific 80th percentile) of LDL-C, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, and cigarette smoking, were directly related to carotid IMT measured in young adults at ages 33 through 39 years (P<.001 for both men and women), and remained significant after adjustment for contemporaneous risk variables. The number of risk factors measured at ages 3 to 9 years demonstrated a weak direct relationship with carotid IMT at ages 24 to 30 years in men (P =.02) but not in women (P =.63). CONCLUSIONS Risk factor profile assessed in 12- to 18-year-old adolescents predicts adult common carotid artery IMT independently of contemporaneous risk factors. These findings suggest that exposure to cardiovascular risk factors early in life may induce changes in arteries that contribute to the development of atherosclerosis.

negative: Cost-effectiveness of 10-Year Risk Thresholds for Initiation of Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease. IMPORTANCE The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) cholesterol treatment guidelines have wide-scale implications for treating adults without history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) with statins. OBJECTIVE To estimate the cost-effectiveness of various 10-year ASCVD risk thresholds that could be used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Microsimulation model, including lifetime time horizon, US societal perspective, 3% discount rate for costs, and health outcomes. In the model, hypothetical individuals from a representative US population aged 40 to 75 years received statin treatment, experienced ASCVD events, and died from ASCVD-related or non-ASCVD-related causes based on ASCVD natural history and statin treatment parameters. Data sources for model parameters included National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, large clinical trials and meta-analyses for statin benefits and treatment, and other published sources. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Estimated ASCVD events prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. RESULTS In the base-case scenario, the current ASCVD threshold of 7.5% or higher, which was estimated to be associated with 48% of adults treated with statins, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,000/QALY compared with a 10% or higher threshold. More lenient ASCVD thresholds of 4.0% or higher (61% of adults treated) and 3.0% or higher (67% of adults treated) had ICERs of $81,000/QALY and $140,000/QALY, respectively. Shifting from a 7.5% or higher ASCVD risk threshold to a 3.0% or higher ASCVD risk threshold was estimated to be associated with an additional 161,560 cardiovascular disease events averted. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in the disutility associated with taking a pill daily, statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was a higher than 93% chance that the optimal ASCVD threshold was 5.0% or lower using a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this microsimulation model of US adults aged 45 to 75 years [corrected], the current 10-year ASCVD risk threshold (≥7.5% risk threshold) used in the ACC/AHA cholesterol treatment guidelines has an acceptable cost-effectiveness profile (ICER, $37,000/QALY), but more lenient ASCVD thresholds would be optimal using cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY (≥4.0% risk threshold) or $150,000/QALY (≥3.0% risk threshold). The optimal ASCVD threshold was sensitive to patient preferences for taking a pill daily, changes to statin price, and the risk of statin-induced diabetes.

negative: Screening for Lung Cancer: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) makes recommendations about the effectiveness of specific preventive care services for patients without related signs or symptoms. It bases its recommendations on the evidence of both the benefits and harms of the service and an assessment of the balance. The USPSTF does not consider the costs of providing a service in this assessment. The USPSTF recognizes that clinical decisions involve more considerations than evidence alone. Clinicians should understand the evidence but individualize decision making to the specific patient or situation. Similarly, the USPSTF notes that policy and coverage decisions involve considerations in addition to the evidence of clinical benefits and harms. Summary of Recommendation and Evidence The USPSTF recommends annual screening for lung cancer with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) in adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years. Screening should be discontinued once a person has not smoked for 15 years or develops a health problem that substantially limits life expectancy or the ability or willingness to have curative lung surgery. (B recommendation) See the Clinical Considerations section for suggestions for implementation in practice. See the Figure for a summary of the recommendation and suggestions for clinical practice. Figure. Screening for lung cancer: clinical summary of U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendation. Appendix Table 1 describes the USPSTF grades, and Appendix Table 2 describes the USPSTF classification of levels of certainty about net benefit. Appendix Table 1. What the USPSTF Grades Mean and Suggestions for Practice Appendix Table 2. USPSTF Levels of Certainty Regarding Net Benefit Supplement. Consumer Fact Sheet. Rationale Importance Lung cancer is the third most common cancer and the leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States (1). The most important risk factor for lung cancer is smoking, which results in approximately 85% of all U.S. lung cancer cases (2). Although the prevalence of smoking has decreased, approximately 37% of U.S. adults are current or former smokers (2). The incidence of lung cancer increases with age and occurs most commonly in persons aged 55 years or older. Increasing age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke are the 2 most common risk factors for lung cancer. Lung cancer has a poor prognosis, and nearly 90% of persons with lung cancer die of the disease. However, early-stage nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) has a better prognosis and can be treated with surgical resection. Detection Most lung cancer cases are NSCLC, and most screening programs focus on the detection and treatment of early-stage NSCLC. Although chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have been used to screen for lung cancer, LDCT has greater sensitivity for detecting early-stage cancer (3). Benefits of Detection and Early Treatment Although lung cancer screening is not an alternative to smoking cessation, the USPSTF found adequate evidence that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT in a defined population of high-risk persons can prevent a substantial number of lung cancerrelated deaths. Direct evidence from a large, well-conducted, randomized, controlled trial (RCT) provides moderate certainty of the benefit of lung cancer screening with LDCT in this population (4). The magnitude of benefit to the person depends on that person's risk for lung cancer because those who are at highest risk are most likely to benefit. Screening cannot prevent most lung cancerrelated deaths, and smoking cessation remains essential. Harms of Detection and Early Intervention and Treatment The harms associated with LDCT screening include false-negative and false-positive results, incidental findings, overdiagnosis, and radiation exposure. False-positive LDCT results occur in a substantial proportion of screened persons; 95% of all positive results do not lead to a diagnosis of cancer. In a high-quality screening program, further imaging can resolve most false-positive results; however, some patients may require invasive procedures. The USPSTF found insufficient evidence on the harms associated with incidental findings. Overdiagnosis of lung cancer occurs, but its precise magnitude is uncertain. A modeling study performed for the USPSTF estimated that 10% to 12% of screen-detected cancer cases are overdiagnosedthat is, they would not have been detected in the patient's lifetime without screening. Radiation harms, including cancer resulting from cumulative exposure to radiation, vary depending on the age at the start of screening; the number of scans received; and the person's exposure to other sources of radiation, particularly other medical imaging. USPSTF Assessment The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that annual screening for lung cancer with LDCT is of moderate net benefit in asymptomatic persons who are at high risk for lung cancer based on age, total cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking. The moderate net benefit of screening depends on limiting screening to persons who are at high risk, the accuracy of image interpretation being similar to that found in the NLST (National Lung Screening Trial), and the resolution of most false-positive results without invasive procedures (4). Clinical Considerations Patient Population Under Consideration The risk for lung cancer increases with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke and decreases with time since quitting smoking. The best evidence for the benefit of screening comes from the NLST, which enrolled adults aged 55 to 74 years who had at least a 30 pack-year smoking history and were current smokers or had quit within the past 15 years. As with all screening trials, the NLST tested a specific intervention over a finite period. Because initial eligibility extended through age 74 years and participants received 3 annual screening computed tomographic scans, the oldest participants in the trial were aged 77 years. The USPSTF used modeling studies to predict the benefits and harms of screening programs that use different screening intervals, age ranges, smoking histories, and times since quitting. A program that annually screens adults aged 55 to 80 years who have a 30 pack-year smoking history and currently smoke or have quit within the past 15 years is projected to have a reasonable balance of benefits and harms. The model assumes that persons who achieve 15 years of smoking cessation during the screening program discontinue screening. This model predicts the outcomes of continuing the screening program used in the NLST through age 80 years. Screening may not be appropriate for patients with substantial comorbid conditions, particularly those at the upper end of the screening age range. The NLST excluded persons who were unlikely to complete curative lung cancer surgery and those with medical conditions that posed a substantial risk for death during the 8-year trial. The baseline characteristics of the NLST showed a relatively healthy sample, and fewer than 10% of enrolled participants were older than 70 years (5). Persons with serious comorbid conditions may experience net harm, no net benefit, or at least substantially less net benefit. Similarly, persons who are unwilling to have curative lung surgery are unlikely to benefit from a screening program. Assessment of Risk Age, total exposure to tobacco smoke, and years since quitting smoking are important risk factors for lung cancer and were used to determine eligibility in the NLST. Other risk factors include specific occupational exposures, radon exposure, family history, and history of pulmonary fibrosis or chronic obstructive lung disease. The incidence of lung cancer is relatively low in persons younger than 50 years but increases with age, especially after age 60 years. In current and former smokers, age-specific incidence rates increase with age and cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke. Smoking cessation substantially reduces a person's risk for developing and dying of lung cancer. Among persons enrolled in the NLST, those who were at highest risk because of additional risk factors or a greater cumulative exposure to tobacco smoke experienced most of the benefit (6). A validated multivariate model showed that persons in the highest 60% of risk accounted for 88% of all deaths preventable by screening. Screening Tests Low-dose computed tomography has shown high sensitivity and acceptable specificity for the detection of lung cancer in high-risk persons. Chest radiography and sputum cytologic evaluation have not shown adequate sensitivity or specificity as screening tests. Therefore, LDCT is currently the only recommended screening test for lung cancer. Treatment Surgical resection is the current standard of care for localized NSCLC. This type of cancer is treated with surgical resection when possible and also with radiation and chemotherapy. Annual LDCT screening may not be useful for patients with life-limiting comorbid conditions or poor functional status who may not be candidates for surgery. Other Approaches to Prevention Smoking cessation is the most important intervention to prevent NSCLC. Advising smokers to stop smoking and preventing nonsmokers from being exposed to tobacco smoke are the most effective ways to decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with lung cancer. Current smokers should be informed of their continuing risk for lung cancer and offered cessation treatments. Screening with LDCT should be viewed as an adjunct to tobacco cessation interventions. Useful Resources Clinicians have many resources to help patients stop smoking. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has developed a Web site with many such resources, including information on tobacco quit lines, available in several languages (www.cdc.gov/tobacco/campaign/tips). Quit l

negative: To err is human. Building a safer health system Human beings, make errors Healthcare Services is a complex industry prone to accidents. The IOM Report [1] points out that some systems are more prone to accidents than others. When a system fails there are often multiple faults. In healthcare,human errors are the greatest contributors to accidents,however when human error is to blame it often depends upon failures within the system. These failures exists in the system before the error occurs, the same as with latent errors which are difficult to identify since they may be hidden in computers or within the various managerial layers. Most of the errors can be prevented by designing systems that make it hard for people to do the wrong thing and easy for people to do the right thing. In healthcare, this means designing processes that are able to ensure that patients are safe from accidental injury. As healthcare and the system that delivers it become more complex, the opportunities for errors abound. The IOM report “To Err is Human” proposes an approach for reducing medical errors and improving patient safety. The environment within which this occurs has a critical influence on quality. This influence may contain two dimensions; the first consists of the domain of quality which includes the practice that is consistent with current medical knowledge. The second dimension consists of forces in the external environment that can drive quality improvement in the delivery system. Although the risk of dying as a result of a medical error, far surpasses the risk of dying in an airline accident, public attention has been more focused on improving safety in the airline industry than in healthcare systems. Because of the absence of standardized nomenclature, it is important to define what an error is and what is an adverse event, the IOM Report defines them in the following way: “An error is the failure of a planned action to be completed as intended or the use of a wrong plan to achieve an aim. ” An adverse event is an injury caused by medical management rather than the underlying condition of the patient. An adverse event attributable to error is a “preventable adverse event”.

negative: Cardiovascular risk factors and migraine: the GEM population-based study. BACKGROUND Migraine, particularly with aura, is a risk factor for early-onset ischemic stroke. The underlying mechanisms are unknown, but may in part be due to migraineurs having an increased risk profile for cardiovascular disease. In this study, the authors compare the cardiovascular risk profile of adult migraineurs to that of nonmigraineurs. METHODS Participants (n = 5,755, 48% men, age 20 to 65 years) are from the Genetic Epidemiology of Migraine (GEM) study, a population-based study in the Netherlands. A total of 620 current migraineurs were identified: 31% with aura (MA), 64% without aura (MO), and 5% unclassified. Controls were 5,135 individuals without lifetime migraine. Measured cardiovascular risk factors included blood pressure (BP), serum total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC, HDL), smoking, oral contraceptive use, and the Framingham risk score for myocardial infarction or coronary heart disease (CHD) death. RESULTS Compared to controls, migraineurs were more likely to smoke (OR = 1.43 [1.1 to 1.8]), less likely to consume alcohol (OR = 0.58 [0.5 to 0.7]), and more likely to report a parental history of early myocardial infarction. Migraineurs with aura were more likely to have an unfavorable cholesterol profile (TC > or = 240 mg/dL [OR = 1.43 (0.97 to 2.1)], TC:HDL ratio > 5.0 [OR = 1.64 (1.1 to 2.4)]), have elevated BP (systolic BP > 140 mm Hg or diastolic BP > 90 mm Hg [OR = 1.76 (1.04 to 3.0)]), and report a history of early onset CHD or stroke (OR = 3.96 [1.1 to 14.3]); female migraineurs with aura were more likely to be using oral contraceptives (OR = 2.06 [1.05 to 4.0]). The odds of having an elevated Framingham risk score for CHD were approximately doubled for the migraineurs with aura. CONCLUSIONS Migraineurs, particularly with aura, have a higher cardiovascular risk profile than individuals without migraine.

negative: Association between influenza vaccination and cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk patients: a meta-analysis. IMPORTANCE Among nontraditional cardiovascular risk factors, recent influenzalike infection is associated with fatal and nonfatal atherothrombotic events. OBJECTIVES To determine if influenza vaccination is associated with prevention of cardiovascular events. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION A systematic review and meta-analysis of MEDLINE (1946-August 2013), EMBASE (1947-August 2013), and the Cochrane Library Central Register of Controlled Trials (inception-August 2013) for randomized clinical trials (RCTs) comparing influenza vaccine vs placebo or control in patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease, reporting cardiovascular outcomes either as efficacy or safety events. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Two investigators extracted data independently on trial design, baseline characteristics, outcomes, and safety events from published manuscripts and unpublished supplemental data. High-quality studies were considered those that described an appropriate method of randomization, allocation concealment, blinding, and completeness of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Random-effects Mantel-Haenszel risk ratios (RRs) and 95% CIs were derived for composite cardiovascular events, cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and individual cardiovascular events. Analyses were stratified by subgroups of patients with and without a history of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) within 1 year of randomization. RESULTS Five published and 1 unpublished randomized clinical trials of 6735 patients (mean age, 67 years; 51.3% women; 36.2% with a cardiac history; mean follow-up time, 7.9 months) were included. Influenza vaccine was associated with a lower risk of composite cardiovascular events (2.9% vs 4.7%; RR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.48-0.86], P = .003) in published trials. A treatment interaction was detected between patients with (RR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.32-0.63]) and without (RR, 0.94 [95% CI, 0.55-1.61]) recent ACS (P for interaction = .02). Results were similar with the addition of unpublished data. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In a meta-analysis of RCTs, the use of influenza vaccine was associated with a lower risk of major adverse cardiovascular events. The greatest treatment effect was seen among the highest-risk patients with more active coronary disease. A large, adequately powered, multicenter trial is warranted to address these findings and assess individual cardiovascular end points.

negative: Blood pressure and incidence of twelve cardiovascular diseases: lifetime risks, healthy life-years lost, and age-specific associations in 1·25 million people BACKGROUND The associations of blood pressure with the different manifestations of incident cardiovascular disease in a contemporary population have not been compared. In this study, we aimed to analyse the associations of blood pressure with 12 different presentations of cardiovascular disease. METHODS We used linked electronic health records from 1997 to 2010 in the CALIBER (CArdiovascular research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records) programme to assemble a cohort of 1·25 million patients, 30 years of age or older and initially free from cardiovascular disease, a fifth of whom received blood pressure-lowering treatments. We studied the heterogeneity in the age-specific associations of clinically measured blood pressure with 12 acute and chronic cardiovascular diseases, and estimated the lifetime risks (up to 95 years of age) and cardiovascular disease-free life-years lost adjusted for other risk factors at index ages 30, 60, and 80 years. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01164371. FINDINGS During 5·2 years median follow-up, we recorded 83,098 initial cardiovascular disease presentations. In each age group, the lowest risk for cardiovascular disease was in people with systolic blood pressure of 90-114 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure of 60-74 mm Hg, with no evidence of a J-shaped increased risk at lower blood pressures. The effect of high blood pressure varied by cardiovascular disease endpoint, from strongly positive to no effect. Associations with high systolic blood pressure were strongest for intracerebral haemorrhage (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·32-1·58]), subarachnoid haemorrhage (1·43 [1·25-1·63]), and stable angina (1·41 [1·36-1·46]), and weakest for abdominal aortic aneurysm (1·08 [1·00-1·17]). Compared with diastolic blood pressure, raised systolic blood pressure had a greater effect on angina, myocardial infarction, and peripheral arterial disease, whereas raised diastolic blood pressure had a greater effect on abdominal aortic aneurysm than did raised systolic pressure. Pulse pressure associations were inverse for abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR per 10 mm Hg 0·91 [95% CI 0·86-0·98]) and strongest for peripheral arterial disease (1·23 [1·20-1·27]). People with hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or those receiving blood pressure-lowering drugs) had a lifetime risk of overall cardiovascular disease at 30 years of age of 63·3% (95% CI 62·9-63·8) compared with 46·1% (45·5-46·8) for those with normal blood pressure, and developed cardiovascular disease 5·0 years earlier (95% CI 4·8-5·2). Stable and unstable angina accounted for most (43%) of the cardiovascular disease-free years of life lost associated with hypertension from index age 30 years, whereas heart failure and stable angina accounted for the largest proportion (19% each) of years of life lost from index age 80 years. INTERPRETATION The widely held assumptions that blood pressure has strong associations with the occurrence of all cardiovascular diseases across a wide age range, and that diastolic and systolic associations are concordant, are not supported by the findings of this high-resolution study. Despite modern treatments, the lifetime burden of hypertension is substantial. These findings emphasise the need for new blood pressure-lowering strategies, and will help to inform the design of randomised trials to assess them. FUNDING Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, and Wellcome Trust.

negative: Relationship of soft drink consumption to global overweight, obesity, and diabetes: a cross-national analysis of 75 countries. OBJECTIVES We estimated the relationship between soft drink consumption and obesity and diabetes worldwide. METHODS We used multivariate linear regression to estimate the association between soft drink consumption and overweight, obesity, and diabetes prevalence in 75 countries, controlling for other foods (cereals, meats, fruits and vegetables, oils, and total calories), income, urbanization, and aging. Data were obtained from the Euromonitor Global Market Information Database, the World Health Organization, and the International Diabetes Federation. Bottled water consumption, which increased with per-capita income in parallel to soft drink consumption, served as a natural control group. RESULTS Soft drink consumption increased globally from 9.5 gallons per person per year in 1997 to 11.4 gallons in 2010. A 1% rise in soft drink consumption was associated with an additional 4.8 overweight adults per 100 (adjusted B; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.1, 6.5), 2.3 obese adults per 100 (95% CI = 1.1, 3.5), and 0.3 adults with diabetes per 100 (95% CI = 0.1, 0.8). These findings remained robust in low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS Soft drink consumption is significantly linked to overweight, obesity, and diabetes worldwide, including in low- and middle-income countries.

negative: Frailty Syndrome: A Transitional State in a Dynamic Process Frailty has long been considered synonymous with disability and comorbidity, to be highly prevalent in old age and to confer a high risk for falls, hospitalization and mortality. However, it is becoming recognized that frailty may be a distinct clinical syndrome with a biological basis. The frailty process appears to be a transitional state in the dynamic progression from robustness to functional decline. During this process, total physiological reserves decrease and become less likely to be sufficient for the maintenance and repair of the ageing body. Central to the clinical concept of frailty is that no single altered system alone defines it, but that multiple systems are involved. Clinical consensus regarding the phenotype which constitutes frailty, drawing upon the opinions of numerous authors, shows the characteristics to include wasting (loss of both muscle mass and strength and weight loss), loss of endurance, decreased balance and mobility, slowed performance, relative inactivity and, potentially, decreased cognitive function. Frailty is a distinct entity easily recognized by clinicians, with multiple manifestations and with no single symptom being sufficient or essential in its presentation. Manifestations include appearance (consistent or not with age), nutritional status (thin, weight loss), subjective health rating (health perception), performance (cognition, fatigue), sensory/physical impairments (vision, hearing, strength) and current care (medication, hospital). Although the early stages of the frailty process may be clinically silent, when depleted reserves reach an aggregate threshold leading to serious vulnerability, the syndrome may become detectable by looking at clinical, functional, behavioral and biological markers. Thus, a better understanding of these clinical changes and their underlying mechanisms, beginning in the pre-frail state, may confirm the impression held by many geriatricians that increasing frailty is distinguishable from ageing and in consequence is potentially reversible. We therefore provide an update of the physiopathology and clinical and biological characteristics of the frailty process and speculate on possible preventative approaches.

negative: Surgical vs nonsurgical treatment of adults with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus: the PROFHER randomized clinical trial. IMPORTANCE The need for surgery for the majority of patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures is unclear, but its use is increasing. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of surgical vs nonsurgical treatment for adults with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A pragmatic, multicenter, parallel-group, randomized clinical trial, the Proximal Fracture of the Humerus Evaluation by Randomization (PROFHER) trial, recruited 250 patients aged 16 years or older (mean age, 66 years [range, 24-92 years]; 192 [77%] were female; and 249 [99.6%] were white) who presented at the orthopedic departments of 32 acute UK National Health Service hospitals between September 2008 and April 2011 within 3 weeks after sustaining a displaced fracture of the proximal humerus involving the surgical neck. Patients were followed up for 2 years (up to April 2013) and 215 had complete follow-up data. The data for 231 patients (114 in surgical group and 117 in nonsurgical group) were included in the primary analysis. INTERVENTIONS Fracture fixation or humeral head replacement were performed by surgeons experienced in these techniques. Nonsurgical treatment was sling immobilization. Standardized outpatient and community-based rehabilitation was provided to both groups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Primary outcome was the Oxford Shoulder Score (range, 0-48; higher scores indicate better outcomes) assessed during a 2-year period, with assessment and data collection at 6, 12, and 24 months. Sample size was based on a minimal clinically important difference of 5 points for the Oxford Shoulder Score. Secondary outcomes were the Short-Form 12 (SF-12), complications, subsequent therapy, and mortality. RESULTS There was no significant mean treatment group difference in the Oxford Shoulder Score averaged over 2 years (39.07 points for the surgical group vs 38.32 points for the nonsurgical group; difference of 0.75 points [95% CI, -1.33 to 2.84 points]; P = .48) or at individual time points. There were also no significant between-group differences over 2 years in the mean SF-12 physical component score (surgical group: 1.77 points higher [95% CI, -0.84 to 4.39 points]; P = .18); the mean SF-12 mental component score (surgical group: 1.28 points lower [95% CI, -3.80 to 1.23 points]; P = .32); complications related to surgery or shoulder fracture (30 patients in surgical group vs 23 patients in nonsurgical group; P = .28), requiring secondary surgery to the shoulder (11 patients in both groups), and increased or new shoulder-related therapy (7 patients vs 4 patients, respectively; P = .58); and mortality (9 patients vs 5 patients; P = .27). Ten medical complications (2 cardiovascular events, 2 respiratory events, 2 gastrointestinal events, and 4 others) occurred in the surgical group during the postoperative hospital stay. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Among patients with displaced proximal humeral fractures involving the surgical neck, there was no significant difference between surgical treatment compared with nonsurgical treatment in patient-reported clinical outcomes over 2 years following fracture occurrence. These results do not support the trend of increased surgery for patients with displaced fractures of the proximal humerus. TRIAL REGISTRATION isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN50850043.

negative: Glucose tolerance and blood pressure: long term follow up in middle aged men. OBJECTIVE to investigate the role of glucose tolerance in the development of hypertension. DESIGN Retrospective analysis of the results of a health check up in a group of clinically healthy middle aged men in the late 1960s (median year 1968). The subjects were invited to enter into a primary prevention trial for cardiovascular disease in 1974, when they underwent clinical examination for risk factors. The trial was completed in 1979, when the men were re-examined. Follow up was in 1986. SETTING Institute of Occupational Health, Helsinki, Finland and second department of medicine, University of Helsinki. SUBJECTS In all, 3490 men born during 1919-34 participated in a health check up in the late 1960s. In 1974, 1815 of these men who were clinically healthy were entered into a primary prevention trial for cardiovascular disease. On clinical examination 1222 of the men were considered at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Of these, 612 received an intervention and were excluded from the study. A total of 593 men were without risk factors. The study comprised all of the men who did not have an intervention (n = 1203). In 1979, 1120 men were re-examined, and in 1986 945 men attended follow up. There were two groups for analysis: one comprising all subjects and the other comprising only men who were normotensive in 1968 and for whom complete information was available. INTERVENTIONS By 1979, 103 men were taking antihypertensive drugs, and by 1986, 131 were taking antihypertensive drugs and 12 were taking drugs for hyperglycaemia. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Blood glucose concentration one hour after a glucose load, blood pressure, and body weight were measured in 1968, 1974, and 1979. In 1986 blood pressure and body weight were recorded. RESULTS Men who were hypertensive in 1986 had significantly higher blood pressures (p less than 0.0001) and (after adjustment for body mass index and alcohol intake) significantly higher blood glucose concentrations one hour after a glucose load at all examinations than those who were normotensive in 1986. Regression analysis showed that the higher the blood glucose concentration after a glucose load in 1968 the higher the blood pressure during the following years. Those men between the second and third tertiles of blood glucose concentration in 1968 had a significantly higher risk of developing hypertension (odds ratio 1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.77) compared with those below the first tertile. CONCLUSION In this study men who developed hypertension tended to have shown an increased intolerance to glucose up to 18 years before the clinical manifestation of their disorder. Blood glucose concentration one hour after a glucose load was an independent predictor of future hypertension.

negative: Comparative determinants of 4-year cardiovascular event rates in stable outpatients at risk of or with atherothrombosis. CONTEXT Clinicians and trialists have difficulty with identifying which patients are highest risk for cardiovascular events. Prior ischemic events, polyvascular disease, and diabetes mellitus have all been identified as predictors of ischemic events, but their comparative contributions to future risk remain unclear. OBJECTIVE To categorize the risk of cardiovascular events in stable outpatients with various initial manifestations of atherothrombosis using simple clinical descriptors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Outpatients with coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, or peripheral arterial disease or with multiple risk factors for atherothrombosis were enrolled in the global Reduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) Registry and were followed up for as long as 4 years. Patients from 3647 centers in 29 countries were enrolled between 2003 and 2004 and followed up until 2008. Final database lock was in April 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Rates of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. RESULTS A total of 45,227 patients with baseline data were included in this 4-year analysis. During the follow-up period, a total of 5481 patients experienced at least 1 event, including 2315 with cardiovascular death, 1228 with myocardial infarction, 1898 with stroke, and 40 with both a myocardial infarction and stroke on the same day. Among patients with atherothrombosis, those with a prior history of ischemic events at baseline (n = 21,890) had the highest rate of subsequent ischemic events (18.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 17.4%-19.1%); patients with stable coronary, cerebrovascular, or peripheral artery disease (n = 15,264) had a lower risk (12.2%; 95% CI, 11.4%-12.9%); and patients without established atherothrombosis but with risk factors only (n = 8073) had the lowest risk (9.1%; 95% CI, 8.3%-9.9%) (P < .001 for all comparisons). In addition, in multivariable modeling, the presence of diabetes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.44; 95% CI, 1.36-1.53; P < .001), an ischemic event in the previous year (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.57-1.85; P < .001), and polyvascular disease (HR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.78-2.24; P < .001) each were associated with a significantly higher risk of the primary end point. CONCLUSION Clinical descriptors can assist clinicians in identifying high-risk patients within the broad range of risk for outpatients with atherothrombosis.

negative: Calcium and peak bone mass. On the basis of previous epidemiological, clinical and experimental studies, it was demonstrated that adequate calcium intake during growth may influence peak bone mass/density, and may be instrumental in preventing subsequent postmenopausal and senile osteoporosis. Calcium intake during adolescence appears to affect skeletal calcium retention directly, and a calcium intake of up to 1600 mg d-1 may be required. Therefore, adolescent females at the time of puberty probably represent the optimal population for early prevention of osteoporosis with calcium. Young individuals must be in positive calcium balance to provide the calcium necessary for skeletal modelling and consolidation, but the degree of positive balance required to achieve peak bone mass and density is unknown. To assess calcium requirements in young individuals, and also to evaluate the determinants of calcium metabolism during the period of acquisition of peak bone mass, 487 calcium balances from previously published reports have been collected and analysed according to developmental phase and calcium intake. The results of this analysis showed that calcium intake and skeletal modelling/turnover are the most important determinants of calcium balance during growth. The highest requirements for calcium are during infancy and adolescence, and then during childhood and young adulthood. Infants (adequate vitamin D supply) and adolescents have higher calcium absorption than children and young adults to meet their high calcium requirements. Calcium absorption during the periods of rapid bone modelling/turnover is probably mediated by Nicolaysen's endogenous factor. Urinary calcium increases with age, and reaches a maximum by the end of puberty. The results also show that calcium intake has little effect on urinary calcium excretion during the period of most rapid skeletal formation: a weak correlation is present in children and young adults. On the basis of the above studies it was suggested that the RDA for calcium should be higher than currently established for children, adolescents, and young adults, in order to ensure a level of skeletal retention of calcium sufficient for maximal peak bone mass. In addition to nutrition, heredity (both parents) and endocrine factors (sexual development) appear to have profound effects on peak bone mass formation. Most of the skeletal mass will be accumulated by late adolescence, indicating early timing of peak bone mass.

negative: Physician Emigration from Sub-Saharan Africa to the United States: Analysis of the 2011 AMA Physician Masterfile BACKGROUND The large-scale emigration of physicians from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to high-income nations is a serious development concern. Our objective was to determine current emigration trends of SSA physicians found in the physician workforce of the United States. METHODS AND FINDINGS We analyzed physician data from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Workforce Statistics along with graduation and residency data from the 2011 American Medical Association Physician Masterfile (AMA-PM) on physicians trained or born in SSA countries who currently practice in the US. We estimated emigration proportions, year of US entry, years of practice before emigration, and length of time in the US. According to the 2011 AMA-PM, 10,819 physicians were born or trained in 28 SSA countries. Sixty-eight percent (n = 7,370) were SSA-trained, 20% (n = 2,126) were US-trained, and 12% (n = 1,323) were trained outside both SSA and the US. We estimated active physicians (age ≤ 70 years) to represent 96% (n = 10,377) of the total. Migration trends among SSA-trained physicians increased from 2002 to 2011 for all but one principal source country; the exception was South Africa whose physician migration to the US decreased by 8% (-156). The increase in last-decade migration was >50% in Nigeria (+1,113) and Ghana (+243), >100% in Ethiopia (+274), and >200% (+244) in Sudan. Liberia was the most affected by migration to the US with 77% (n = 175) of its estimated physicians in the 2011 AMA-PM. On average, SSA-trained physicians have been in the US for 18 years. They practiced for 6.5 years before US entry, and nearly half emigrated during the implementation years (1984-1999) of the structural adjustment programs. CONCLUSION Physician emigration from SSA to the US is increasing for most SSA source countries. Unless far-reaching policies are implemented by the US and SSA countries, the current emigration trends will persist, and the US will remain a leading destination for SSA physicians emigrating from the continent of greatest need. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

negative: Migraine and cardiovascular disease: systematic review and meta-analysis. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between migraine and cardiovascular disease, including stroke, myocardial infarction, and death due to cardiovascular disease. DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES Electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library) and reference lists of included studies and reviews published until January 2009. Selection criteria Case-control and cohort studies investigating the association between any migraine or specific migraine subtypes and cardiovascular disease. Review methods Two investigators independently assessed eligibility of identified studies in a two step approach. Disagreements were resolved by consensus. Studies were grouped according to a priori categories on migraine and cardiovascular disease. DATA EXTRACTION Two investigators extracted data. Pooled relative risks and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. RESULTS Studies were heterogeneous for participant characteristics and definition of cardiovascular disease. Nine studies investigated the association between any migraine and ischaemic stroke (pooled relative risk 1.73, 95% confidence interval 1.31 to 2.29). Additional analyses indicated a significantly higher risk among people who had migraine with aura (2.16, 1.53 to 3.03) compared with people who had migraine without aura (1.23, 0.90 to 1.69; meta-regression for aura status P=0.02). Furthermore, results suggested a greater risk among women (2.08, 1.13 to 3.84) compared with men (1.37, 0.89 to 2.11). Age less than 45 years, smoking, and oral contraceptive use further increased the risk. Eight studies investigated the association between migraine and myocardial infarction (1.12, 0.95 to 1.32) and five between migraine and death due to cardiovascular disease (1.03, 0.79 to 1.34). Only one study investigated the association between women who had migraine with aura and myocardial infarction and death due to cardiovascular disease, showing a twofold increased risk. CONCLUSION Migraine is associated with a twofold increased risk of ischaemic stroke, which is only apparent among people who have migraine with aura. Our results also suggest a higher risk among women and risk was further magnified for people with migraine who were aged less than 45, smokers, and women who used oral contraceptives. We did not find an overall association between any migraine and myocardial infarction or death due to cardiovascular disease. Too few studies are available to reliably evaluate the impact of modifying factors, such as migraine aura, on these associations.

negative: Leisure time physical activity and mortality: a detailed pooled analysis of the dose-response relationship. IMPORTANCE The 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommended a minimum of 75 vigorous-intensity or 150 moderate-intensity minutes per week (7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week) of aerobic activity for substantial health benefit and suggested additional benefits by doing more than double this amount. However, the upper limit of longevity benefit or possible harm with more physical activity is unclear. OBJECTIVE To quantify the dose-response association between leisure time physical activity and mortality and define the upper limit of benefit or harm associated with increased levels of physical activity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We pooled data from 6 studies in the National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium (baseline 1992-2003). Population-based prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe with self-reported physical activity were analyzed in 2014. A total of 661,137 men and women (median age, 62 years; range, 21-98 years) and 116,686 deaths were included. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with cohort stratification to generate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Median follow-up time was 14.2 years. EXPOSURES Leisure time moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The upper limit of mortality benefit from high levels of leisure time physical activity. RESULTS Compared with individuals reporting no leisure time physical activity, we observed a 20% lower mortality risk among those performing less than the recommended minimum of 7.5 metabolic-equivalent hours per week (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.78-0.82]), a 31% lower risk at 1 to 2 times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.67-0.70]), and a 37% lower risk at 2 to 3 times the minimum (HR, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.62-0.65]). An upper threshold for mortality benefit occurred at 3 to 5 times the physical activity recommendation (HR, 0.61 [95% CI, 0.59-0.62]); however, compared with the recommended minimum, the additional benefit was modest (31% vs 39%). There was no evidence of harm at 10 or more times the recommended minimum (HR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.59-0.78]). A similar dose-response relationship was observed for mortality due to cardiovascular disease and to cancer. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Meeting the 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans minimum by either moderate- or vigorous-intensity activities was associated with nearly the maximum longevity benefit. We observed a benefit threshold at approximately 3 to 5 times the recommended leisure time physical activity minimum and no excess risk at 10 or more times the minimum. In regard to mortality, health care professionals should encourage inactive adults to perform leisure time physical activity and do not need to discourage adults who already participate in high-activity levels.

negative: Long-term survival of beta thalassemia major patients treated with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation compared with survival with conventional treatment. Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) in thalassemia remains a challenge. We reported a single-centre case-control study of a large cohort of 516 children and adult patients treated with HSCT or blood transfusion support and iron chelation therapy; 258 patients (median age 12, range 1-45) underwent sibling (67%) or unrelated (33%) HSCT; 97 patients were adults (age ≥ 16 years). The median follow-up after HSCT was 11 years (range 1-30). The conditioning regimen was busulfan (80.6%) or treosulfan-based (19.4%). A cohort of 258 age-sex matched conventionally treated (CT) patients was randomly selected. In transplanted patients the 30-year overall survival (OS) and thalassemia-free survival (TFS) were 82.6 ± 2.7% and 77.8 ± 2.9%, compared to the OS of 85.3 ± 2.7% in CT patients (P = NS); The incidence of grade II-IV acute and chronic graft versus host disease (GvHD) was 23.6% and 12.9% respectively. The probability of rejection was 6.9%. Transplant-related mortality (TRM) (13.8%) was similar to the probability of dying of cardiovascular events in CT patients (12.2%). High-risk Pesaro score (class 3) was associated with lower OS (OR = 1.99, 95% C.I.=1.31-3.03) and TFS (OR = 1.54, 95% C.I.=1.12-2.12). In adult patients, the 23-years OS and TFS after HSCT were 70 ± 5% and 67.3 ± 5%, compared to 71.2 ± 5% of OS in CT (P = NS). Finally, treosulfan was associated with lower risk of acute GvHD (P = .004; OR = 0.28, 95% C.I.=0.12-0.67). In conclusion, the 30-year survival rate of ex-thalassemia patients after HSCT was similar to that expected in CT thalassemia patients, with the vast majority of HSCT survivors cured from thalassemia.

negative: Prevention of coronary heart disease with pravastatin in men with hypercholesterolemia. West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study Group. BACKGROUND Lowering the blood cholesterol level may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease. This double-blind study was designed to determine whether the administration of pravastatin to men with hypercholesterolemia and no history of myocardial infarction reduced the combined incidence of nonfatal myocardial infarction and death from coronary heart disease. METHODS We randomly assigned 6595 men, 45 to 64 years of age, with a mean (+/- SD) plasma cholesterol level of 272 +/- 23 mg per deciliter (7.0 +/- 0.6 mmol per liter) to receive pravastatin (40 mg each evening) or placebo. The average follow-up period was 4.9 years. Medical records, electrocardiographic recordings, and the national death registry were used to determine the clinical end points. RESULTS Pravastatin lowered plasma cholesterol levels by 20 percent and low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol levels by 26 percent, whereas there was no change with placebo. There were 248 definite coronary events (specified as nonfatal myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease) in the placebo group, and 174 in the pravastatin group (relative reduction in risk with pravastatin, 31 percent; 95 percent confidence interval, 17 to 43 percent; P < 0.001). There were similar reductions in the risk of definite nonfatal myocardial infarctions (31 percent reduction, P < 0.001), death from coronary heart disease (definite cases alone: 28 percent reduction, P = 0.13; definite plus suspected cases: 33 percent reduction, P = 0.042), and death from all cardiovascular causes (32 percent reduction, P = 0.033). There was no excess of deaths from noncardiovascular causes in the pravastatin group. We observed a 22 percent reduction in the risk of death from any cause in the pravastatin group (95 percent confidence interval, 0 to 40 percent; P = 0.051). CONCLUSIONS Treatment with pravastatin significantly reduced the incidence of myocardial infarction and death from cardiovascular causes without adversely affecting the risk of death from noncardiovascular causes in men with moderate hypercholesterolemia and no history of myocardial infarction.

negative: Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study BACKGROUND Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population. METHODS AND FINDINGS Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%-5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%-1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014-2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5-10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0-2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014-2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations. CONCLUSION Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations.

negative: Assessing the cost effectiveness of using prognostic biomarkers with decision models: case study in prioritising patients waiting for coronary artery surgery OBJECTIVE To determine the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of using information from circulating biomarkers to inform the prioritisation process of patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass graft surgery. DESIGN Decision analytical model comparing four prioritisation strategies without biomarkers (no formal prioritisation, two urgency scores, and a risk score) and three strategies based on a risk score using biomarkers: a routinely assessed biomarker (estimated glomerular filtration rate), a novel biomarker (C reactive protein), or both. The order in which to perform coronary artery bypass grafting in a cohort of patients was determined by each prioritisation strategy, and mean lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared. DATA SOURCES Swedish Coronary Angiography and Angioplasty Registry (9935 patients with stable angina awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting and then followed up for cardiovascular events after the procedure for 3.8 years), and meta-analyses of prognostic effects (relative risks) of biomarkers. RESULTS The observed risk of cardiovascular events while on the waiting list for coronary artery bypass grafting was 3 per 10,000 patients per day within the first 90 days (184 events in 9935 patients). Using a cost effectiveness threshold of pound20,000- pound30,000 (euro22,000-euro33,000; $32,000-$48,000) per additional QALY, a prioritisation strategy using a risk score with estimated glomerular filtration rate was the most cost effective strategy (cost per additional QALY was < pound410 compared with the Ontario urgency score). The impact on population health of implementing this strategy was 800 QALYs per 100,000 patients at an additional cost of pound 245,000 to the National Health Service. The prioritisation strategy using a risk score with C reactive protein was associated with lower QALYs and higher costs compared with a risk score using estimated glomerular filtration rate. CONCLUSION Evaluating the cost effectiveness of prognostic biomarkers is important even when effects at an individual level are small. Formal prioritisation of patients awaiting coronary artery bypass grafting using a routinely assessed biomarker (estimated glomerular filtration rate) along with simple, routinely collected clinical information was cost effective. Prioritisation strategies based on the prognostic information conferred by C reactive protein, which is not currently measured in this context, or a combination of C reactive protein and estimated glomerular filtration rate, is unlikely to be cost effective. The widespread practice of using only implicit or informal means of clinically ordering the waiting list may be harmful and should be replaced with formal prioritisation approaches.

negative: Respiratory and cardiovascular responses to walking down a traffic-polluted road compared with walking in a traffic-free area in participants aged 60 years and older with chronic lung or heart disease and age-matched healthy controls: a randomised, crossover study BACKGROUND Long-term exposure to pollution can lead to an increase in the rate of decline of lung function, especially in older individuals and in those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), whereas shorter-term exposure at higher pollution levels has been implicated in causing excess deaths from ischaemic heart disease and exacerbations of COPD. We aimed to assess the effects on respiratory and cardiovascular responses of walking down a busy street with high levels of pollution compared with walking in a traffic-free area with lower pollution levels in older adults. METHODS In this randomised, crossover study, we recruited men and women aged 60 years and older with angiographically proven stable ischaemic heart disease or stage 2 Global initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) COPD who had been clinically stable for 6 months, and age-matched healthy volunteers. Individuals with ischaemic heart disease or COPD were recruited from existing databases or outpatient respiratory and cardiology clinics at the Royal Brompton & Harefield NHS Foundation Trust and age-matched healthy volunteers using advertising and existing databases. All participants had abstained from smoking for at least 12 months and medications were taken as recommended by participants' doctors during the study. Participants were randomly assigned by drawing numbered disks at random from a bag to do a 2 h walk either along a commercial street in London (Oxford Street) or in an urban park (Hyde Park). Baseline measurements of participants were taken before the walk in the hospital laboratory. During each walk session, black carbon, particulate matter (PM) concentrations, ultrafine particles, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations were measured. FINDINGS Between October, 2012, and June, 2014, we screened 135 participants, of whom 40 healthy volunteers, 40 individuals with COPD, and 39 with ischaemic heart disease were recruited. Concentrations of black carbon, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, and ultrafine particles were higher on Oxford Street than in Hyde Park. Participants with COPD reported more cough (odds ratio [OR] 1·95, 95% CI 0·96-3·95; p<0·1), sputum (3·15, 1·39-7·13; p<0·05), shortness of breath (1·86, 0·97-3·57; p<0·1), and wheeze (4·00, 1·52-10·50; p<0·05) after walking down Oxford Street compared with Hyde Park. In all participants, irrespective of their disease status, walking in Hyde Park led to an increase in lung function (forced expiratory volume in the first second [FEV1] and forced vital capacity [FVC]) and a decrease in pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index up to 26 h after the walk. By contrast, these beneficial responses were attenuated after walking on Oxford Street. In participants with COPD, a reduction in FEV1 and FVC, and an increase in R5-20 were associated with an increase in during-walk exposure to NO2, ultrafine particles and PM2.5, and an increase in PWV and augmentation index with NO2 and ultrafine particles. In healthy volunteers, PWV and augmentation index were associated both with black carbon and ultrafine particles. INTERPRETATION Short-term exposure to traffic pollution prevents the beneficial cardiopulmonary effects of walking in people with COPD, ischaemic heart disease, and those free from chronic cardiopulmonary diseases. Medication use might reduce the adverse effects of air pollution in individuals with ischaemic heart disease. Policies should aim to control ambient levels of air pollution along busy streets in view of these negative health effects. FUNDING British Heart Foundation.

negative: Inducible depletion of satellite cells in adult, sedentary mice impairs muscle regenerative capacity without affecting sarcopenia A key determinant of geriatric frailty is sarcopenia, the age-associated loss of skeletal muscle mass and strength. Although the etiology of sarcopenia is unknown, the correlation during aging between the loss of activity of satellite cells, which are endogenous muscle stem cells, and impaired muscle regenerative capacity has led to the hypothesis that the loss of satellite cell activity is also a cause of sarcopenia. We tested this hypothesis in male sedentary mice by experimentally depleting satellite cells in young adult animals to a degree sufficient to impair regeneration throughout the rest of their lives. A detailed analysis of multiple muscles harvested at various time points during aging in different cohorts of these mice showed that the muscles were of normal size, despite low regenerative capacity, but did have increased fibrosis. These results suggest that lifelong reduction of satellite cells neither accelerated nor exacerbated sarcopenia and that satellite cells did not contribute to the maintenance of muscle size or fiber type composition during aging, but that their loss may contribute to age-related muscle fibrosis.

negative: Roles of exosomes in cardioprotection. Exosomes are extracellular vesicles of endosomal origin which have emerged as key mediators of intercellular communication. All major cardiac cell types-including cardiomyocytes, endothelial cells, and fibroblasts-release exosomes that modulate cellular functions. Exosomes released from human cardiac progenitor cells (CPCs) are cardioprotective and improve cardiac function after myocardial infarction to an extent comparable with that achieved by their parent cells. Cardiac progenitor cell-derived exosomes are enriched in cardioprotective microRNAs, particularly miR-146a-3p. Circulating exosomes mediate remote ischaemic preconditioning. Moreover, they currently are being investigated as diagnostic markers. The discovery that cell-derived extracellular signalling organelles mediate the paracrine effects of stem cells suggests that cell-free strategies could supplant cell transplantation. This review discusses emerging roles of exosomes in cardiovascular physiology, with a focus on cardioprotective activities of CPC-derived exosomes.

negative: HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors and the risk of hip fractures in elderly patients. CONTEXT Recent animal studies have found that 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A (HMG-CoA) lipid-lowering drugs (statins) substantially increase bone formation, but whether statin use in humans results in clinically meaningful bone formation or a reduction in the risk of osteoporotic fractures is not known. OBJECTIVE To determine whether the use of statins is associated with reduced hip fracture risk. DESIGN Case-control study. SETTING AND PATIENTS A total of 6110 New Jersey residents aged 65 years or older and enrolled in Medicare and either Medicaid or the Pharmacy Assistance for the Aged and Disabled program. Case patients (n=1222) underwent surgical repair of a hip fracture in 1994. Control patients (n=4888) were identified at a ratio of 4:1 and frequency-matched to case patients for age and sex. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Adjusted odds ratio (OR) of hip fracture by statin use in the 180 days and 3 years prior to the index date (the earliest date of admission for surgery), adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics and health care utilization. RESULTS Use of statins in either the prior 180 days (adjusted OR, 0.50; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.33-0.76) or prior 3 years (adjusted OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.40-0.82) was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of hip fracture, even after controlling for variables such as race, insurance status, psychoactive medications, estrogen and thiazide use, ischemic heart disease, cancer, and diabetes mellitus. No significant relationship was observed between use of nonstatin lipid-lowering agents and hip fracture risk. Clear relationships were observed between the degree of reduction in hip fracture risk and the extent of statin use; there was no evidence of such relationships with nonstatin lipid-lowering agents. After adjusting for extent of statin use in the prior 3 years, current use (on the index date) was associated with a 71% reduction in risk (adjusted OR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.10-0.81). The relationship between statin use and hip fracture risk persisted after controlling for variables such as the number of medications, the Charlson comorbidity index score, and hospitalization or nursing home stay in the last 180 days, as well as after excluding patients who were in a nursing home prior to their index date or who died in the year after their index date. Use of nonstatin lipid-lowering agents was not observed to be associated with reduction in hip fracture risk in any of these alternative models or analyses. CONCLUSIONS These findings support an association between statin use by elderly patients and reduction in the risk of hip fracture. Controlled trials are needed to exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounders. JAMA. 2000;283:3211-3216

negative: How do I perform a lumbar puncture and analyze the results to diagnose bacterial meningitis? CONTEXT Diagnostic lumbar punctures (LPs), commonly used to rule out meningitis, are associated with adverse events. OBJECTIVE To systematically review the evidence about diagnostic LP techniques that may decrease the risk of adverse events and the evidence about test accuracy of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis in adult patients with suspected bacterial meningitis. DATA SOURCES We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (using Ovid and PubMed) from 1966 to January 2006 and EMBASE from 1980 to January 2006 without language restrictions to identify relevant studies and identified others from the bibliographies of retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION We included randomized trials of patients aged 18 years or older undergoing interventions to facilitate a successful diagnostic LP or to potentially reduce adverse events. Studies assessing the accuracy of biochemical analysis of the CSF for possible bacterial meningitis were also identified. DATA EXTRACTION Two investigators independently appraised study quality and extracted relevant data. For studies of the LP technique, data on the intervention and the outcome were extracted. For studies of the laboratory diagnosis of bacterial meningitis, data on the reference standard and test accuracy were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS We found 15 randomized trials. A random-effects model was used for quantitative synthesis. Five studies of 587 patients compared atraumatic needles with standard needles and found a nonsignificant decrease in the odds of headache with an atraumatic needle (absolute risk reduction [ARR], 12.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.72% to 26.2%). Reinsertion of the stylet before needle removal decreased the risk of headache (ARR, 11.3%; 95% CI, 6.50%-16.2%). The combined results from 4 studies of 717 patients showed a nonsignificant decrease in headache in patients who were mobilized after LP (ARR, 2.9%; 95% CI, -3.4 to 9.3%). Four studies on the accuracy of biochemical analysis of CSF in patients with suspected meningitis met inclusion criteria. A CSF-blood glucose ratio of 0.4 or less (likelihood ratio [LR], 18; 95% CI, 12-27]), CSF white blood cell count of 500/muL or higher (LR, 15; 95% CI, 10-22), and CSF lactate level of 31.53 mg/dL or more (> or =3.5 mmol/L; LR, 21; 95% CI, 14-32) accurately diagnosed bacterial meningitis. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that small-gauge, atraumatic needles may decrease the risk of headache after diagnostic LP. Reinsertion of the stylet before needle removal should occur and patients do not require bed rest after the procedure. Future research should focus on evaluating interventions to optimize the success of a diagnostic LP and to enhance training in procedural skills.

negative: Risk of death with atypical antipsychotic drug treatment for dementia: meta-analysis of randomized placebo-controlled trials. CONTEXT Atypical antipsychotic medications are widely used to treat delusions, aggression, and agitation in people with Alzheimer disease and other dementia; however, concerns have arisen about the increased risk for cerebrovascular adverse events, rapid cognitive decline, and mortality with their use. OBJECTIVE To assess the evidence for increased mortality from atypical antipsychotic drug treatment for people with dementia. DATA SOURCES MEDLINE (1966 to April 2005), the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (2005, Issue 1), meetings presentations (1997-2004), and information from the sponsors were searched using the terms for atypical antipsychotic drugs (aripiprazole, clozapine, olanzapine, quetiapine, risperidone, and ziprasidone), dementia, Alzheimer disease, and clinical trial. STUDY SELECTION Published and unpublished randomized placebo-controlled, parallel-group clinical trials of atypical antipsychotic drugs marketed in the United States to treat patients with Alzheimer disease or dementia were selected by consensus of the authors. DATA EXTRACTION Trials, baseline characteristics, outcomes, all-cause dropouts, and deaths were extracted by one reviewer; treatment exposure was obtained or estimated. Data were checked by a second reviewer. DATA SYNTHESIS Fifteen trials (9 unpublished), generally 10 to 12 weeks in duration, including 16 contrasts of atypical antipsychotic drugs with placebo met criteria (aripiprazole [n = 3], olanzapine [n = 5], quetiapine [n = 3], risperidone [n = 5]). A total of 3353 patients were randomized to study drug and 1757 were randomized to placebo. Outcomes were assessed using standard methods (with random- or fixed-effects models) to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and risk differences based on patients randomized and relative risks based on total exposure to treatment. There were no differences in dropouts. Death occurred more often among patients randomized to drugs (118 [3.5%] vs 40 [2.3%]. The OR by meta-analysis was 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.23; P = .02; and risk difference was 0.01; 95% CI, 0.004-0.02; P = .01). Sensitivity analyses did not show evidence for differential risks for individual drugs, severity, sample selection, or diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS Atypical antipsychotic drugs may be associated with a small increased risk for death compared with placebo. This risk should be considered within the context of medical need for the drugs, efficacy evidence, medical comorbidity, and the efficacy and safety of alternatives. Individual patient analyses modeling survival and causes of death are needed.

negative: Candida albicans-Staphylococcus aureus polymicrobial peritonitis modulates host innate immunity. Despite advances in medical device fabrication and antimicrobial treatment therapies, fungal-bacterial polymicrobial peritonitis remains a serious complication for surgery patients, those on peritoneal dialysis, and the critically ill. Using a murine model of peritonitis, we have demonstrated that monomicrobial infection with Candida albicans or Staphylococcus aureus is nonlethal. However, coinfection with these same doses leads to a 40% mortality rate and increased microbial burden in the spleen and kidney by day 1 postinfection. Using a multiplex enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we have also identified a unique subset of innate proinflammatory cytokines (interleukin-6, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, keratinocyte chemoattractant, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and macrophage inflammatory protein-1α) that are significantly increased during polymicrobial versus monomicrobial peritonitis, leading to increased inflammatory infiltrate into the peritoneum and target organs. Treatment of coinfected mice with the cyclooxygenase (COX) inhibitor indomethacin reduces the infectious burden, proinflammatory cytokine production, and inflammatory infiltrate while simultaneously preventing any mortality. Further experiments demonstrated that the immunomodulatory eicosanoid prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) is synergistically increased during coinfection compared to monomicrobial infection; indomethacin treatment also decreased elevated PGE2 levels. Furthermore, addition of exogenous PGE2 into the peritoneal cavity during infection overrode the protection provided by indomethacin and restored the increased mortality and microbial burden. Importantly, these studies highlight the ability of fungal-bacterial coinfection to modulate innate inflammatory events with devastating consequences to the host.

negative: Gene–environment interactions in 7610 women with breast cancer: prospective evidence from the Million Women Study BACKGROUND Information is scarce about the combined effects on breast cancer incidence of low-penetrance genetic susceptibility polymorphisms and environmental factors (reproductive, behavioural, and anthropometric risk factors for breast cancer). To test for evidence of gene-environment interactions, we compared genotypic relative risks for breast cancer across the other risk factors in a large UK prospective study. METHODS We tested gene-environment interactions in 7610 women who developed breast cancer and 10 196 controls without the disease, studying the effects of 12 polymorphisms (FGFR2-rs2981582, TNRC9-rs3803662, 2q35-rs13387042, MAP3K1-rs889312, 8q24-rs13281615, 2p-rs4666451, 5p12-rs981782, CASP8-rs1045485, LSP1-rs3817198, 5q-rs30099, TGFB1-rs1982073, and ATM-rs1800054) in relation to prospectively collected information about ten established environmental risk factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first birth, breastfeeding, menopausal status, age at menopause, use of hormone replacement therapy, body-mass index, height, and alcohol consumption). FINDINGS After allowance for multiple testing none of the 120 comparisons yielded significant evidence of a gene-environment interaction. By contrast with previous suggestions, there was little evidence that the genotypic relative risks were affected by use of hormone replacement therapy, either overall or for oestrogen-receptor-positive disease. Only one of the 12 polymorphisms was correlated with any of the ten other risk factors: carriers of the high-risk C allele of MAP3K1-rs889312 were significantly shorter than non-carriers (mean height 162.4 cm [95% CI 162.1-162.7] vs 163.1 cm [162.9-163.2]; p=0.01 after allowance for multiple testing). INTERPRETATION Risks of breast cancer associated with low-penetrance susceptibility polymorphisms do not vary significantly with these ten established environmental risk factors. FUNDING Cancer Research UK and the UK Medical Research Council.

negative: Therapeutic equivalence of alendronate 70 mg once-weekly and alendronate 10 mg daily in the treatment of osteoporosis. Alendronate Once-Weekly Study Group. Dosing convenience is a key element in the effective management of any chronic disease, and is particularly important in the long-term management of osteoporosis. Less frequent dosing with any medication may enhance compliance, thereby maximizing the effectiveness of therapy. Animal data support the rationale that once-weekly dosing with alendronate 70 mg (7 times the daily oral treatment dose) could provide similar efficacy to daily dosing with alendronate 10 mg due to its long duration of effect in bone. In addition, dog studies suggest that the potential for esophageal irritation, observed with daily oral bisphosphonates, may be substantially reduced with once-weekly dosing. This dosing regimen would provide patients with increased convenience and would be likely to enhance patient compliance. We compared the efficacy and safety of treatment with oral once-weekly alendronate 70 mg (N=519), twice-weekly alendronate 35 mg (N=369), and daily alendronate 10 mg (N=370) in a one-year, double-blind, multicenter study of postmenopausal women (ages 42 to 95) with osteoporosis (bone mineral density [BMD] of either lumbar spine or femoral neck at least 2.5 SDs below peak premenopausal mean, or prior vertebral or hip fracture). The primary efficacy endpoint was the comparability of increases in lumbar spine BMD, using strict pre-defined equivalence criteria. Secondary endpoints included changes in BMD at the hip and total body and rate of bone turnover, as assessed by biochemical markers. Both of the new regimens fully satisfied the equivalence criteria relative to daily therapy. Mean increases in lumbar spine BMD at 12 months were: 5.1% (95% CI 4.8, 5.4) in the 70 mg once-weekly group, 5.2% (4.9, 5.6) in the 35 mg twice-weekly group, and 5.4% (5.0, 5.8) in the 10 mg daily treatment group. Increases in BMD at the total hip, femoral neck, trochanter, and total body were similar for the three dosing regimens. All three treatment groups similarly reduced biochemical markers of bone resorption (urinary N-telopeptides of type I collagen) and bone formation (serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase) into the middle of the premenopausal reference range. All treatment regimens were well tolerated with a similar incidence of upper GI adverse experiences. There were fewer serious upper GI adverse experiences and a trend toward a lower incidence of esophageal events in the once-weekly dosing group compared to the daily dosing group. These data are consistent with preclinical animal models, and suggest that once-weekly dosing has the potential for improved upper GI tolerability. Clinical fractures, captured as adverse experiences, were similar among the groups. We conclude that the alendronate 70 mg once-weekly dosing regimen will provide patients with a more convenient, therapeutically equivalent alternative to daily dosing, and may enhance compliance and long-term persistence with therapy.

negative: Development and validation of QRISK3 risk prediction algorithms to estimate future risk of cardiovascular disease: prospective cohort study Objectives To develop and validate updated QRISK3 prediction algorithms to estimate the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in women and men accounting for potential new risk factors. Design Prospective open cohort study. Setting General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database. Participants 1309 QResearch general practices in England: 981 practices were used to develop the scores and a separate set of 328 practices were used to validate the scores. 7.89 million patients aged 25-84 years were in the derivation cohort and 2.67 million patients in the validation cohort. Patients were free of cardiovascular disease and not prescribed statins at baseline. Methods Cox proportional hazards models in the derivation cohort to derive separate risk equations in men and women for evaluation at 10 years. Risk factors considered included those already in QRISK2 (age, ethnicity, deprivation, systolic blood pressure, body mass index, total cholesterol: high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease in a first degree relative aged less than 60 years, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, treated hypertension, rheumatoid arthritis, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease (stage 4 or 5)) and new risk factors (chronic kidney disease (stage 3, 4, or 5), a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and HIV/AIDs). We also considered erectile dysfunction diagnosis or treatment in men. Measures of calibration and discrimination were determined in the validation cohort for men and women separately and for individual subgroups by age group, ethnicity, and baseline disease status. Main outcome measures Incident cardiovascular disease recorded on any of the following three linked data sources: general practice, mortality, or hospital admission records. Results 363 565 incident cases of cardiovascular disease were identified in the derivation cohort during follow-up arising from 50.8 million person years of observation. All new risk factors considered met the model inclusion criteria except for HIV/AIDS, which was not statistically significant. The models had good calibration and high levels of explained variation and discrimination. In women, the algorithm explained 59.6% of the variation in time to diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (R2, with higher values indicating more variation), and the D statistic was 2.48 and Harrell's C statistic was 0.88 (both measures of discrimination, with higher values indicating better discrimination). The corresponding values for men were 54.8%, 2.26, and 0.86. Overall performance of the updated QRISK3 algorithms was similar to the QRISK2 algorithms. Conclusion Updated QRISK3 risk prediction models were developed and validated. The inclusion of additional clinical variables in QRISK3 (chronic kidney disease, a measure of systolic blood pressure variability (standard deviation of repeated measures), migraine, corticosteroids, SLE, atypical antipsychotics, severe mental illness, and erectile dysfunction) can help enable doctors to identify those at most risk of heart disease and stroke.

negative: Vitamins E and C in the prevention of prostate and total cancer in men: the Physicians' Health Study II randomized controlled trial. CONTEXT Many individuals take vitamins in the hopes of preventing chronic diseases such as cancer, and vitamins E and C are among the most common individual supplements. A large-scale randomized trial suggested that vitamin E may reduce risk of prostate cancer; however, few trials have been powered to address this relationship. No previous trial in men at usual risk has examined vitamin C alone in the prevention of cancer. OBJECTIVE To evaluate whether long-term vitamin E or C supplementation decreases risk of prostate and total cancer events among men. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS The Physicians' Health Study II is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled factorial trial of vitamins E and C that began in 1997 and continued until its scheduled completion on August 31, 2007. A total of 14,641 male physicians in the United States initially aged 50 years or older, including 1307 men with a history of prior cancer at randomization, were enrolled. INTERVENTION Individual supplements of 400 IU of vitamin E every other day and 500 mg of vitamin C daily. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Prostate and total cancer. RESULTS During a mean follow-up of 8.0 years, there were 1008 confirmed incident cases of prostate cancer and 1943 total cancers. Compared with placebo, vitamin E had no effect on the incidence of prostate cancer (active and placebo vitamin E groups, 9.1 and 9.5 events per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-1.09; P = .58) or total cancer (active and placebo vitamin E groups, 17.8 and 17.3 cases per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.95-1.13; P = .41). There was also no significant effect of vitamin C on total cancer (active and placebo vitamin C groups, 17.6 and 17.5 events per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.92-1.10; P = .86) or prostate cancer (active and placebo vitamin C groups, 9.4 and 9.2 cases per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.90-1.15; P = .80). Neither vitamin E nor vitamin C had a significant effect on colorectal, lung, or other site-specific cancers. Adjustment for adherence and exclusion of the first 4 or 6 years of follow-up did not alter the results. Stratification by various cancer risk factors demonstrated no significant modification of the effect of vitamin E on prostate cancer risk or either agent on total cancer risk. CONCLUSIONS In this large, long-term trial of male physicians, neither vitamin E nor C supplementation reduced the risk of prostate or total cancer. These data provide no support for the use of these supplements for the prevention of cancer in middle-aged and older men. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00270647.