query: how has COVID-19 affected Canada

positive: COVID-19 related mortality and spread of disease in long-term care: first findings from a living systematic review of emerging evidence Background: Policy responses to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care (LTC) require robust and timely evidence on mortality and spread of the disease in these settings. The aim of this living systematic review is to synthesise early international evidence on mortality rates and incidence of COVID-19 among people who use and provide LTC. Methods: We report the initial findings of a living systematic review (CRD42020183557), including studies identified through database searches up to 29 May 2020. We searched seven databases (MEDLINE; Embase; CINAHL Plus; Web of Science; Global Health; WHO COVID-19 Research Database; medRxiv) to identify all studies reporting primary data on COVID-19 related mortality and incidence of disease among LTC users and staff. We excluded studies not focusing on LTC. Included primary studies were critically appraised and results on number of deaths and COVID-19 related mortality rates, case fatality rates, and excess deaths (co-primary outcomes), as well as incidence of disease, hospitalisations, and ICU admissions were synthesised narratively. We further included official figures on number of deaths in LTC. Findings: A total of 30 study reports for 27 unique primary studies or outbreak reports were included. Outbreak investigations in LTC facilities found COVID-19 incidence rates of between 0.0% and 71.7% among residents and between 1.5% and 64.0% among staff. Mortality rates varied from 0.0% to 9.9% of all residents at outbreak facilities, with case fatality rates between 0.0% and 33.7%. In included studies, no LTC staff members had died. LTC residents accounted for between 0% (Hong Kong) and 82% (Canada) of COVID-related deaths, according to official figures. Interpretation: Long-term care users have been particularly vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, we found wide variation in spread of disease and mortality rates between outbreaks at individual LTC facilities. Further research into the factors determining successful prevention and containment of COVID-19 outbreaks is needed to protect long-term care users and staff.

positive: Health-related concerns and precautions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of Canadians with and without underlying health conditions. BACKGROUND The risk of experiencing adverse outcomes from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), such as hospitalization, admission to intensive care units and death, is elevated for older individuals and those with certain underlying health conditions including diabetes, chronic conditions affecting lungs, heart or kidneys, and a compromised immune system. DATA AND METHODS Data collected between March 29 and April 3, 2020 from the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series 1: Impacts of COVID-19 (n=4,627) were used to estimate the prevalence of underlying health conditions, health concerns and precautionary behaviours among Canadians aged 15 or older living in the provinces. Multivariate analyses examined associations between these variables after accounting for age, sex and education. RESULTS Close to 1 in 4 Canadians (24%) had an underlying health condition that increased their risk of adverse outcomes from COVID-19. Overall, 36% of the population were very or extremely concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on their own health. Individuals with underlying health conditions had higher odds (odds ratio: 2.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.6 to 2.5) of being highly concerned than those without these conditions, after adjustment for demographic characteristics. High percentages of Canadians took precautions to reduce the risk of infection regardless of whether or not they had underlying health conditions. DISCUSSION Health status was associated with higher levels of concern for one's own health in the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most Canadians were taking precautions recommended by public health authorities to protect themselves and others.

positive: Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R(0). Without self-isolation, when R(0) = 2.5, treatment of critically ill individuals at the outbreak peak would require 3.8 times more ICU beds than exist in the United States. Self-isolation by 20% of cases 24 h after symptom onset would delay and flatten the outbreak trajectory, reducing the number of ICU beds needed at the peak by 48.4% (interquartile range 46.4–50.3%), although still exceeding existing capacity. When R(0) = 2, twice as many ICU beds would be required at the peak of outbreak in the absence of self-isolation. In this scenario, the proportional impact of self-isolation within 24 h on reducing the peak number of ICU beds is substantially higher at 73.5% (interquartile range 71.4–75.3%). Our estimates underscore the inadequacy of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak. Policies that encourage self-isolation, such as paid sick leave, may delay the epidemic peak, giving a window of time that could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand hospital capacity.

positive: Integrated urban services: Experience from four cities on different continents Abstract Rapid urbanization combined with climate change necessitates new types of urban services that make best use of science and technology. The Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services and systems are a new initiative from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that seeks to provide science-based integrated urban services supporting safe, healthy and resilient cities. Various cities have already started development and implementation of such Integrated Urban Services and successfully test and use them following specific requirements of local stakeholders. This paper demonstrates the novel concept and approach of Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services (IUS) from a set of four case study cities: Hong Kong, Toronto, Mexico City and Paris, that use different IUS configurations with good existing practice. These cities represent a range of countries, climates and geophysical settings. The aggregate main joint similarities of the IUS in these cities and synergy of the cities' experience, achievements and research findings are presented, as well as identification of existing gaps in knowledge and further research needs. A list of potential criteria for identifying and classifying IUS demonstration cities is proposed. It will aid future, more detailed analysis of the IUS experience, and selection of additional demonstration cities.

positive: Communication, transparency key as Canada faces new coronavirus threat.

positive: Impact of COVID-19 on Pediatric Gastroenterology Fellow Training in North America BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically changed healthcare systems and training around the world. The Training Committee of the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition sought to understand how COVID-19 has affected pediatric gastroenterology fellowship training. METHODS: A 21 question survey was distributed to all 77 pediatric gastroenterology fellowship program directors (PDs) in the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition program director database via email on April 7. Responses collected through April 19, 2020 were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Fifty-one of 77 (66%) PDs from the United States, Canada, and Mexico responded to the survey. Forty-six of 51 (90%) PDs reported that they were under a "stay-at-home" order for a median of 4 weeks at the time of the survey. Two of the 51 (4%) programs had fellows participating in outpatient telehealth before COVID-19 and 39 of 51 (76%) at the time of the survey. Fellows stopped participating in outpatient clinics in 22 of 51 (43%) programs and endoscopy in 26 of 51 (52%) programs. Changes to inpatient care included reduced fellow staffing, limiting who entered patient rooms, and rounding remotely. Fellows in 3 New York programs were deployed to adult medicine units. Didactics were moved to virtual conferences in 47 of 51 (94%) programs, and fellows used various online resources. Clinical research and, disproportionately, bench research were restricted. CONCLUSIONS: This report provides early information of the impact of COVID-19 on pediatric fellowship training. Rapid adoption of telehealth and reduced clinical and research experiences were important changes. Survey information may spur communication and innovation to help educators adapt.

positive: Understanding the CoVID-19 pandemic Curve through statistical approach Current research is an attempt to understand the CoVID-19 pandemic curve through statistical approach of probability density function with associated skewness and kurtosis measures, change point detection and polynomial fitting to estimate infected population along with 30 days projection. The pandemic curve has been explored for above average affected countries, six regions and global scale during 64 days of 22nd January to 24th March, 2020. The global cases infection as well as recovery rate curves remained in the ranged of 0 - 9.89 and 0 - 8.89%, respectively. The confirmed cases probability density curve is high positive skewed and leptokurtic with mean global infected daily population of 6620. The recovered cases showed bimodal positive skewed curve of leptokurtic type with daily recovery of 1708. The change point detection helped to understand the CoVID-19 curve in term of sudden change in term of mean or mean with variance. This pointed out disease curve is consist of three phases and last segment that varies in term of day lengths. The mean with variance based change detection is better in differentiating phases and associated segment length as compared to mean. Global infected population might rise in the range of 0.750 to 4.680 million by 24th April 2020, depending upon the pandemic curve progress beyond 24th March, 2020. Expected most affected countries will be USA, Italy, China, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, Iran and UK with at least infected population of over 0.100 million. Infected population polynomial projection errors remained in the range of -78.8 to 49.0%.

positive: Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments' interventions (stay-at-home advises/orders, lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing) against COVID-19 into consideration. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries.

positive: El síndrome respiratorio agudo grave: primera pandemia del siglo XXI

positive: Risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections: using artificial intelligence to investigate stringency of physical distancing policies in North America PURPOSE: Accurately forecasting the occurrence of future covid-19-related cases across relaxed (Sweden) and stringent (USA and Canada) policy contexts has a renewed sense of urgency. Moreover, there is a need for a multidimensional county-level approach to monitor the second wave of covid-19 in the USA. METHOD: We use an artificial intelligence framework based on timeline of policy interventions that triangulated results based on the three approaches-Bayesian susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR), Kalman filter, and machine learning. RESULTS: Our findings suggest three important insights. First, the effective growth rate of covid-19 infections dropped in response to the approximate dates of key policy interventions. We find that the change points for spreading rates approximately coincide with the timelines of policy interventions across respective countries. Second, forecasted trend until mid-June in the USA was downward trending, stable, and linear. Sweden is likely to be heading in the other direction. That is, Sweden's forecasted trend until mid-June appears to be non-linear and upward trending. Canada appears to fall somewhere in the middle-the trend for the same period is flat. Third, a Kalman filter based robustness check indicates that by mid-June the USA will likely have close to two million virus cases, while Sweden will likely have over 44,000 covid-19 cases. CONCLUSION: We show that drop in effective growth rate of covid-19 infections was sharper in the case of stringent policies (USA and Canada) but was more gradual in the case of relaxed policy (Sweden). Our study exhorts policy makers to take these results into account as they consider the implications of relaxing lockdown measures.

positive: Heterogeneity in risk, testing and outcome of COVID-19 across outbreak settings in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: an observational study Background: We compared the risk of, testing for, and death following COVID-19 infection across three settings (long-term care homes (LTCH), shelters, the rest of the population) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Canada. Methods: We sourced person-level data from COVID-19 surveillance and reporting systems in Ontario, and examined settings with population-specific denominators (LTCH residents, shelters, and the rest of the population). We calculated cumulatively, the diagnosed cases per capita, proportion tested for COVID-19, daily and cumulative positivity, and case fatality proportion. We estimated the age- and sex-adjusted relative rate ratios for test positivity and case fatality using quasi-Poisson regression. Results: Between 01/23/2020-05/25/2020, we observed a shift in the proportion of cases: from travel-related and into LTCH and shelters. Cumulatively, compared to the rest of the population, the number of diagnosed cases per 100,000 was 59-fold and 18-fold higher among LTCH and shelter residents, respectively. By 05/25/2020, 77.2% of LTCH residents compared to 2.4% of the rest of the population had been tested. After adjusting for age and sex, LTCH residents were 2.5 times (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.3-2.8) more likely to test positive. Case fatality was 26.3% (915/3485), 0.7% (3/402), and 3.6% (506/14133) among LTCH residents, shelter population, and others in the GTA, respectively. After adjusting for age and sex, case fatality was 1.4-fold (95%CI: 1.1-1.9) higher among LTCH residents than the rest of the population. Interpretation: Heterogeneity across micro-epidemics among specific populations in specific settings may reflect underlying heterogeneity in transmission risks, necessitating setting-specific COVID-19 prevention and mitigation strategies.

positive: Evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: A global health emergency Abstract According to data compiled by researchers at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, more than two and half million cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a newly discovered virus named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have been confirmed on April 20, 2020 (Nature, 2020b). Since the emergence of this infectious disease in Asia (Wuhan, China) late last year, it has been subsequently span to every continent of the world except Antarctica (Rodríguez-Morales et al., 2020). Along with a foothold in every country, the current disease pandemic is disrupting practically every aspect of life all over the world. As the outbreak are continuing to evolve, several research activities have been conducted for better understanding the origin, functions, treatments, and preventions of this novel coronavirus. This review will be a summa of the key features of novel coronavirus (nCoV), the virus causing disease 2019 and the present epidemic situation worldwide up to April 20, 2020. It is expected that this record will play an important role to take more preventive measures for overcoming the challenges faced during this current pandemic.

positive: Continuity of Constitutional Government during a Pandemic: Considering the Concept in Canada's Emergency Management Act This research note examines the undefined meaning of the government's obligations to ensure “continuity of constitutional government” (CCG) as provided for in section 4(l) of the Emergency Management Act, S.C. 2007, c. 15 (Canada, 2007). Specifically, that section gives the minister of public safety and emergency preparedness the responsibility for “establishing the necessary arrangements for the continuity of constitutional government in the event of an emergency,” but the term is itself undefined. The article will canvass the origin of the term and its relationship to other so-called continuity of government (COG) concepts, along with some legal written opinion on what the term might in practice mean, should the minister ever be charged with discharging this responsibility. It will conclude with some final thoughts on the relevance of the CCG concept to the current pandemic. Given that the COVID-19 virus has infected Sophie Grégoire Trudeau, the prime minister's wife, forced a drastically reduced and possibly “virtual” federal Parliament, placed the British prime minister in intensive care and led to the self-isolation of many world leaders, the topic is relevant to Canada in 2020.

positive: Risk for COVID-19 Resurgence Related to Duration and Effectiveness of Physical Distancing in Ontario, Canada

positive: A national cross-sectional survey of public perceptions, knowledge, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic Introduction: Efforts to mitigate the global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have largely relied on broad compliance with public health recommendations, yet navigating the high volume of evolving information and misinformation related to SARS-CoV-2 can be challenging. We assessed national public perceptions (e.g., severity, concerns, health), knowledge (e.g., transmission, information sources), and behaviors (e.g., physical distancing) related to COVID-19 in Canada to understand public perspectives and inform future public health initiatives. Methods: We administered a national online survey with the goal of obtaining responses from 2000 adults residing in Canada. Respondent sampling was stratified by age, sex, and region. We used descriptive statistics to summarize respondent characteristics and tested for significant overall regional differences using chi-squared tests and t-tests, as appropriate. Results: We collected 1,996 eligible questionnaires between April 26th and May 1st, 2020. One-fifth (20%) of respondents knew someone diagnosed with COVID-19, but few had tested positive themselves (0.6%). Negative impacts of pandemic conditions were evidenced in several areas, including concerns about healthcare (e.g. sufficient equipment, 52%), pandemic stress (45%), and worsening social (49%) and mental/emotional (39%) health. Most respondents (88%) felt they had good to excellent knowledge of virus transmission, and predominantly accessed (74%) and trusted (60%) Canadian news television, newspapers/magazines, or non-government news websites for COVID-19 information. We found high compliance with distancing measures (80% either self-isolating or always physical distancing). We identified regional differences in perceptions, knowledge, and behaviors related to COVID-19. Discussion: We found that knowledge about COVID-19 is largely acquired through domestic news sources, which may explain high self-reported compliance with prevention measures. The results highlight the broader impact of a pandemic on the general public's overall health and wellbeing, outside of personal infection. The study findings should be used to inform public health communications during COVID-19 and future pandemics.

positive: Mortality from COVID-19 in 12 countries and 6 states of the United States Importance: Reliable estimates of COVID-19 mortality are crucial to aid control strategies and to assess the effectiveness of interventions. Objective: Project COVID-19 mortality trends to October 1, 2020, in 12 countries or regions that constitute >90% of the global COVID-19 deaths reported as of April 12, 2020. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Global COVID-19 Assessment of Mortality (GCAM) is an open, transparent, and continuously updated (www.cghr.org/covid) statistical model that combines actual COVID-19 mortality counts with Bayesian inference to forecast COVID-19 deaths, the date of peak deaths, and the duration of excess mortality. The analyses covered a total of 700 million population above age 20 in 12 countries or regions: USA; Italy; Spain; France; UK; Iran; Belgium; a province of China (Hubei, which accounted for 90% of reported Chinese deaths); Germany; the Netherlands; Switzerland; and Canada; and six US states: New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Louisiana, California, and Washington. Results: Forecasted deaths across the 12 current high-burden countries sum 167,000 to 593,000 (median 253,000). The trajectory of US deaths (49,000-249,000 deaths; median 86,000)- over half of which are expected in states beyond the initial six states analysed in this study- will have the greatest impact on the eventual total. Mortality ranges are 25,000-109,000 (median 46,000) in the UK; 23,000-31,000 (median 26,000) in Italy; 21,000-37,000 (median 26,000) in France and 21,000-32,000 (median 25,000) in Spain. Estimates are most precise for Hubei, China, where the epidemic curve is complete, and least precise in California, where it is ongoing. New York has the highest cumulative median mortality rate per million (1135), about 12-fold that of Germany. Mortality trajectories are notably flatter in Germany, California, and Washington State, each of which took physical distancing and testing strategies seriously. Using past country-specific mortality as a guide, GCAM predicts surge capacity needs, reaching more than twice existing capacity in a number of places., In every setting, the results might be sensitive to undercounts of COVID-19 deaths, which are already apparent. Conclusion and Relevance: Mortality from COVID-19 will be substantial across many settings, even in the best case scenario. GCAM will provide continually updated and increasingly precise estimates as the pandemic progresses.

positive: Canadian Geriatrics Society COVID-19 Recommendations for Older Adults. What Do Older Adults Need To Know?

positive: Fifteen years post-SARS: Key milestones in Canada's public health emergency response. This year marks the 15th anniversary of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Canada and the 100th anniversary of the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. These, and other recent public health events, provide an opportunity for us to review and reflect on the evolution of Canada's public health emergency response over the past 15 years-from SARS, to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza, to Ebola virus and Zika virus disease. Key lessons have been learned and milestones achieved that have shaped and sharpened our response approach and structures. While SARS was a wake-up-call to strengthen infection prevention and control capacity in health care settings and led to the formation of the Public Health Agency of Canada, it also strengthened our Federal/Provincial/Territorial (FPT) senior-level governance and led to agreements for pan-Canadian mutual aid and infectious disease information sharing. As well, our collective public health laboratory capacity has been strengthened through ongoing response and sharing of advanced diagnostics and research. As we move forward, it will be important to explore the design of scalable or modular emergency response strategies and structures that are socio-culturally appropriate and employ evidence-based strategic risk communications that continue to be critical, especially given the volume and spread of misinformation. With the current global reality, we must recognize that public health threats that go unchecked anywhere in the world have the potential to very rapidly become a public health threat in Canada. We need to build, maintain and share our best public health practices globally, for we neglect these at our peril.

positive: The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies About one month after the COVID-19 epidemic peaked in Mainland China and SARS-CoV-2 migrated from China westward to Europe and then the U.S., the epidemiological data begin to provide important insights into the risks associated with the disease and the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Like other respiratory diseases, including the 2003 SARS epidemic, the virus remains only about two months in any given population, yet the peak incidence and the lethality can vary. The data suggest that at least two strains of the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 virus have evolved during its migration from Mainland China to Europe. South Korea, Iran, and Italy were hit by the more dangerous "SKII" variant. While the epidemic in China is about to end, and in Europe about to level off, the course of the epidemic in the younger US population is still increasing and the peak level will likely depend on which of the strains has entered the US first. The same models that help us to understand the epidemic also help us to choose prevention strategies. While containment merely prolongs the time the disease circulates until the proportion of immune people is high enough for "herd immunity", reducing disease severity, either by vaccination or by early treatment of complications, is the best strategy against a respiratory virus disease.

positive: Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1–31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4(th) quantile being the highest risk and 1(st) quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4(th) quantile of the risk index, two in the 3(rd) quantile, one in the 2(nd) quantile and none in the 1(st) quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries.

positive: Quantifying the role of social distancing, personal protection and case detection in mitigating COVID-19 outbreak in Ontario, Canada Public health interventions have been implemented to mitigate the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Ontario, Canada; however, the quantification of their effectiveness remains to be done and is important to determine if some of the social distancing measures can be relaxed without resulting in a second wave. We aim to equip local public health decision- and policy-makers with mathematical model-based quantification of implemented public health measures and estimation of the trend of COVID-19 in Ontario to inform future actions in terms of outbreak control and de-escalation of social distancing. Our estimates confirm that (1) social distancing measures have helped mitigate transmission by reducing daily infection contact rate, but the disease transmission probability per contact remains as high as 0.145 and case detection rate was so low that the effective reproduction number remained higher than the threshold for disease control until the closure of non-essential business in the Province; (2) improvement in case detection rate and closure of non-essential business had resulted in further reduction of the effective control number to under the threshold. We predict the number of confirmed cases according to different control efficacies including a combination of reducing further contact rates and transmission probability per contact. We show that improved case detection rate plays a decisive role to reduce the effective reproduction number, and there is still much room in terms of improving personal protection measures to compensate for the strict social distancing measures.

positive: Sensitivity of nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva for the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) We enrolled 91 consecutive in-patients with COVID-19 at six hospitals in Toronto, Canada, and tested one nasopharyngeal swab/saliva sample pair from each patient using real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2. Sensitivity was 89% for nasopharyngeal swabs and 72% for saliva (p=0.02); difference in sensitivity was greatest for sample pairs collected later in illness.

positive: Managing Toronto Citywide Health Crises Through 2-1-1 Services Abstract Information and referral systems such as 2-1-1 can be key partners in responding to community-wide health crises and other emergency and disaster events. This paper describes the experience of Toronto 2-1-1 dealing with the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic and later that year the Great Northeastern Blackout. It shares five lessons learned from these experiences and describes how they have shaped the current approach to emergency and disaster response at Toronto 2-1-1 (now 2-1-1 Central Region Ontario).

positive: A Public Health Laboratory Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic An outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) began in Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019, and spread rapidly worldwide. The response by the Alberta Precision Laboratories, Public Health Laboratory (ProvLab), Alberta, Canada, included the development and implementation of nucleic acid detection based assays and dynamic changes in testing protocols for the identification of cases as the epidemic curve increased exponentially. This rapid response was essential to slow down and contain transmission and provide valuable time to the local health authorities to prepare appropriate response strategies. As of May 24, 2020, 236,077 specimens were tested with 6475 (2.74%) positives detected in the province of Alberta, Canada. Several commercial assays are now available; however, the response from commercial vendors to develop and market validated tests is a time-consuming process. In addition, the massive global demand made it difficult to secure a reliable commercial supply of testing kits and reagents.A public health laboratory serves a unique and important role in the delivery of health care. One of its functions is to anticipate and prepare for novel emerging pathogens with a plan for pandemic preparedness. Here we outline the response that involved the development and deployment of testing methodologies that evolved as SARS-CoV-2 spread world-wide, the challenges encountered, and mitigation strategies. We also provide insight into the organizational structure of how a public health response is coordinated in Alberta and its benefits.

positive: New Epidemiological Model Suggestions Revealing Size of Epidemics Based on the COVID-19 Pandemic Example: Wavelength Models The main purpose of the study is to introduce the wavelength models developed to measure the size of outbreaks based on the COVID-19 example. In this way, the wavelengths of the outbreaks can be calculated, ensuring that the outbreaks are valid, reliable and easy to follow at the national and international level. Wavelength models consist of approved case, death, recovered case and net wavelength models. Thus, the size of the outbreak can be measured both individually and as a whole. COVID-19 cases of 181 countries were used to demonstrate the application of the models. The prominent findings in the applied wavelength models are as follows: the countries with the highest case wavelength are USA, Italy, Spain and Germany, respectively. However, Italy ranks first in the death wavelength, followed by Spain, the USA and France. On the other hand, China has taken the first place in the recovered case wavelength. This country was followed by Spain and Germany and Italy, respectively. Based on all these wavelength models mentioned, net wavelength lengths are calculated. According to the net wavelengths obtained, Canada ranked first, followed by United Kingdom, the USA and the Netherlands, respectively.

positive: Paucity and disparity of publicly available sex-disaggregated data for the COVID-19 epidemic hamper evidence-based decision-making COVID-19 has joined the long list of human disorders with sexually dimorphic expression. Increased lethality in men was evident in the first large reports from ChinaCDC and WHO-China, and the gender gap appeared even wider in the early Italian outbreak. Newspapers and scientific journals alike have commented on this finding and the preexisting conditions, biological processes, and gender role behavior differences that may underlie it. However, as for other diseases, and in spite of years of advocating for the collection of raw epidemiological data and the analysis of clinical trial data sets by sex, very little appeared to be released about sex differences in characteristics of the epidemics beyond infection and death rates, such as severity of disease, comorbidities, rate of recovery, length of hospital stay, or number of tests for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. These data are critical not only for scientists to understand the pathophysiology of disease, but also to inform decision-making by countries and healthcare systems on how to prioritize testing and best allocate scarce resources and relief funds. Systematic analysis of official websites for the 20 countries and 6 US states reporting the highest number of cases on March 21, 2020, revealed a wide disparity in sex-disaggregated data made available to the public and scholars. Only a handful of the countries reported cases by sex separately. None of the other characteristics, including fatality rates, were stratified by sex at the time. Beyond suboptimal sex disaggregation, our analysis found a paucity of usable raw data sets and a generalized lack of standardization of captured data, making comparisons difficult. A second round of data capture in April found more complete, but even more disparate, information. Our analysis revealed a wide range of sex ratios among confirmed cases, which changed over time. In countries where a male-biased sex ratio was initially reported, the reported proportion of women among cases dramatically increased in under 3 weeks. In contrast, men were consistently over-represented in severe cases, intensive care admissions, and deaths. We also show that the sex ratio varies with age, with a complex pattern, reproduced across the 6 countries for which data were found. Accurate, peer-reviewed, statistical analysis of harmonized, sex-disaggregated data for other characteristics of epidemics, such as availability of testing, suspected source of infection, or comorbidities will be critical to understand where the observed disparities come from and to generate evidence-based recommendations for decision-making by institutions and governments around the world.

positive: A comparison of infection control program resources, activities, and antibiotic resistant organism rates in Canadian acute care hospitals in 1999 and 2005: Pre- and post-severe acute respiratory syndrome BACKGROUND: The Resources for Infection Control in Hospitals (RICH) project assessed infection control programs and rates of antibiotic-resistant organisms (AROs) in Canadian acute care hospitals in 1999. In the meantime, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak and the concern over pandemic influenza have stimulated considerable government and health care institutional efforts to improve infection control systems in Canada. METHODS: In 2006, a version of the RICH survey similar to the original RICH instrument was mailed to infection control programs in all Canadian acute care hospitals with 80 or more beds. We used χ(2), analysis of variance, and analysis of covariance analyses to test for differences between the 1999 and 2005 samples for infection control program components and ARO rates. RESULTS: 72.3% of Canadian acute care hospitals completed the RICH survey for 1999 and 60.1% for 2005. Hospital size was controlled for in analyses involving AROs and surveillance and control intensity levels. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) rates increased from 1999 to 2005 (F = 9.4, P = .003). In 2005, the mean MRSA rate was 5.2 (standard deviation [SD], 6.1) per 1000 admissions, and, in 1999, it was 2.0 (SD, 2.9). Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea rates trended up from 1999 to 2005 (F = 2.9, P = .09). In 2005, the mean Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea rate was 4.7 (SD, 4.3), and, in 1999, it was 3.8 (SD, 4.3). The proportion of hospitals that reported having new nosocomial vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) cases was greater in 2005 than in 1999 (χ(2) = 10.5, P = .001). In 1999, 34.5% (40/116) of hospitals reported having new nosocomial VRE cases, and, in 2005, 61.0% (64/105) reported new cases. Surveillance intensity index scores increased from a mean of 61.7 (SD, 18.5) in 1999 to 68.1 (SD, 15.4) in 2005 (F = 4.1, P = .04). Control intensity index scores trended upward slightly from a mean of 60.8 (SD, 14.6) in 1999 to 64.1 (SD, 12.2) in 2005 (F = 3.2, P = .07). Infection control professionals (ICP) full-time equivalents (FTEs) per 100 beds increased from a mean of 0.5 (SD, 0.2) in 1999 to 0.8 (SD, 0.3) in 2005 (F = 90.8, P < .0001). However, the proportion of ICPs in hospitals certified by the Certification Board of Infection Control decreased from 53% (SD, 46) in 1999 to 38% (SD, 36) in 2005 (F = 8.7, P = .004). CONCLUSION: Canadian infection control programs in 2005 continued to fall short of expert recommendations for human resources and surveillance and control activities. Meanwhile, nosocomial MRSA rates more than doubled between 1999 and 2005, and hospitals reporting new nosocomial VRE cases increased 77% over the same period. Although investments have been made toward infection control programs in Canadian acute care hospitals, the rapid rise in ICP positions has not yet translated into marked improvements in surveillance and control activities. In the face of substantial increases in ARO rates in Canada, continued efforts to train ICPs and support hospital infection control programs are necessary.

positive: Straining the System: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Preparedness for Concomitant Disasters. Just a few weeks before the first confirmed case of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was reported in the United States, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a bold promise to the nation: the agency will use its scientific expertise to bring a new level of preparedness in the United States and global health security against current and growing threats, finally eliminate certain diseases, and bring an end to the devastation of epidemics.1 The current outbreak of COVID-19 reminds us how urgent this promise is and just how critical it is to continue to sustain and strengthen our nation's public health infrastructure. The unprecedented pace of the public health response to COVID-19 has only been possible because of prior investments in public health preparedness. To accelerate our pace and meet the challenges of current and future health threats, we must advance our world-class data and analytics capabilities; maintain and expand our state-of-the-art public health laboratory capacity; continue building a workforce of trusted, expert, public health professionals; sustain our capacity to rapidly respond to outbreaks at their source; and assure a strong global and domestic preparedness capacity. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print February 13, 2020: e1-e2. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305618).

positive: Estimating the Maximum Capacity of COVID-19 Cases Manageable per Day Given a Health Care System's Constrained Resources

positive: Evaluating the effect of public health intervention on the global-wide spread trajectory of Covid-19 As COVID-19 evolves rapidly, the issues the governments of affected countries facing are whether and when to take public health interventions and what levels of strictness of these interventions should be, as well as when the COVID-19 spread reaches the stopping point after interventions are taken. To help governments with policy-making, we developed modified auto-encoders (MAE) method to forecast spread trajectory of Covid-19 of countries affected, under different levels and timing of intervention strategies. Our analysis showed public health interventions should be executed as soon as possible. Delaying intervention 4 weeks after March 8, 2020 would cause the maximum number of cumulative cases of death increase from 7,174 to 133,608 and the ending points of the epidemic postponed from Jun 25 to Aug 22.

positive: Quantification of Tomographic Patterns associated with COVID-19 from Chest CT Purpose: To present a method that automatically segments and quantifies abnormal CT patterns commonly present in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), namely ground glass opacities and consolidations. Materials and Methods: In this retrospective study, the proposed method takes as input a non-contrasted chest CT and segments the lesions, lungs, and lobes in three dimensions, based on a dataset of 9749 chest CT volumes. The method outputs two combined measures of the severity of lung and lobe involvement, quantifying both the extent of COVID-19 abnormalities and presence of high opacities, based on deep learning and deep reinforcement learning. The first measure of (PO, PHO) is global, while the second of (LSS, LHOS) is lobewise. Evaluation of the algorithm is reported on CTs of 200 participants (100 COVID-19 confirmed patients and 100 healthy controls) from institutions from Canada, Europe and the United States collected between 2002-Present (April, 2020). Ground truth is established by manual annotations of lesions, lungs, and lobes. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to compare the prediction to the ground truth. Results: Pearson correlation coefficient between method prediction and ground truth for COVID-19 cases was calculated as 0.92 for PO (P<.001), 0.97 for PHO(P<.001), 0.91 for LSS (P<.001), 0.90 for LHOS (P<.001). 98 of 100 healthy controls had a predicted PO of less than 1%, 2 had between 1-2%. Automated processing time to compute the severity scores was 10 seconds per case compared to 30 minutes required for manual annotations. Conclusion: A new method segments regions of CT abnormalities associated with COVID-19 and computes (PO, PHO), as well as (LSS, LHOS) severity scores.

positive: Healthcare Worker COVID-19 Cases in Ontario, Canada: A Cross-sectional Study Background: Our objectives were to describe and compare healthcare worker (HCW) and non-HCW COVID-19 cases in Ontario, as well as the frequency of COVID-19 among HCWs household members. Methods: Using reportable disease data at Public Health Ontario which captures COVID-19 cases in Ontario, we conducted a cross-sectional study comparing demographic, exposure, and clinical variables between HCWs and non-HCWs with COVID-19 as of 14 May 2020. We calculated rates of infections over time and determined the frequency of within household transmissions using natural language processing. Results: There were 4,230 (17.5%) HCW COVID-19 cases in Ontario, of whom 20.2% were nurses, 2.3% were physicians, and the remaining 77.4% other specialties. HCWs were more likely to be between 30-60 years of age and female. HCWs were more likely to present asymptomatically (8.1% versus 7.0%, p=0.010) or with atypical symptoms (17.8% versus 10.5%, p<0.001). The mortality among HCWs was 0.2% compared to 10.5% of non-HCWs. HCWs commonly had exposures to a confirmed case or outbreak (74.1%), however only 3.1% were confirmed to be nosocomial. The rate of new infections was 5.5 times higher in HCWs than non-HCWs, but mirrored the epidemic curve. We identified 391 (9.8%) probable secondary household transmissions. Interpretation: HCWs represent a disproportionate number of COVID-19 cases in Ontario but with low confirmed numbers of nosocomial transmission. The data support substantial testing bias and under-ascertainment of general population cases. Protecting HCWs through appropriate personal protective equipment and physician distancing from colleagues is paramount.

positive: Health security capacities in the context of COVID-19 outbreak: an analysis of International Health Regulations annual report data from 182 countries BACKGROUND: Public health measures to prevent, detect, and respond to events are essential to control public health risks, including infectious disease outbreaks, as highlighted in the International Health Regulations (IHR). In light of the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we aimed to review existing health security capacities against public health risks and events. METHODS: We used 18 indicators from the IHR State Party Annual Reporting (SPAR) tool and associated data from national SPAR reports to develop five indices: (1) prevent, (2) detect, (3) respond, (4) enabling function, and (5) operational readiness. We used SPAR 2018 data for all of the indicators and categorised countries into five levels across the indices, in which level 1 indicated the lowest level of national capacity and level 5 the highest. We also analysed data at the regional level (using the six geographical WHO regions). FINDINGS: Of 182 countries, 52 (28%) had prevent capacities at levels 1 or 2, and 60 (33%) had response capacities at levels 1 or 2. 81 (45%) countries had prevent capacities and 78 (43%) had response capacities at levels 4 or 5, indicating that these countries were operationally ready. 138 (76%) countries scored more highly in the detect index than in the other indices. 44 (24%) countries did not have an effective enabling function for public health risks and events, including infectious disease outbreaks (7 [4%] at level 1 and 37 [20%] at level 2). 102 (56%) countries had level 4 or level 5 enabling function capacities in place. 32 (18%) countries had low readiness (2 [1%] at level 1 and 30 [17%] at level 2), and 104 (57%) countries were operationally ready to prevent, detect, and control an outbreak of a novel infectious disease (66 [36%] at level 4 and 38 [21%] at level 5). INTERPRETATION: Countries vary widely in terms of their capacity to prevent, detect, and respond to outbreaks. Half of all countries analysed have strong operational readiness capacities in place, which suggests that an effective response to potential health emergencies could be enabled, including to COVID-19. Findings from local risk assessments are needed to fully understand national readiness capacities in relation to COVID-19. Capacity building and collaboration between countries are needed to strengthen global readiness for outbreak control. FUNDING: None.

positive: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 containment strategies with considerations for limited medical resources The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in China has spread around the world, infecting millions and causing governments to implement strict policies to counteract the spread of the disease. One of the most effective strategies in reducing the severity of the pandemic is social distancing, where members of the population systematically reduce their interactions with others to limit the transmission rate of the virus. However, the implementation of social distancing can be difficult and costly, making it imperative that both policy makers and the citizenry understand the potential benefits if done correctly and the risks if not. In this work, a mathematical model is developed to study the effects of social distancing on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Canada. The model is based upon a standard epidemiological SEIRD model that has been stratified to directly incorporate the proportion of individuals who are following social distancing protocols. The model parameters characterizing the disease are estimated from current epidemiological data on COVID-19 using machine learning techniques. The results of the model show that social distancing policies in Canada have already saved thousands of lives and that the prolonged adherence to social distancing guidelines could save thousands more. Importantly, our model indicates that social distancing can significantly delay the onset of infection peaks, allowing more time for the production of a vaccine or additional medical resources. Furthermore, our results stress the importance of easing social distancing restrictions gradually, rather than all at once, in order to prevent a second wave of infections. Model results are compared to the current capacity of the Canadian healthcare system by examining the current and future number of ventilators available for use, emphasizing the need for the increased production of additional medical resources.

positive: Assessing the burden of COVID-19 in Canada Background: The burden of COVID-19 in Canada is unequally distributed geographically, with the largest number of cases and fatalities recorded in Quebec and Ontario while other provinces experienced limited outbreaks. To date, however, no study has assessed how provincial epidemics have unfolded in a comparative perspective. This is essential to calibrate projections of the future course of the epidemic and plan health care resources for the second wave of infections. Methods: Using newly released individual-level data collected by the Public Health Agency of Canada, we assess COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality across age and gender groups at the provincial level through a combination of demographic and survival analyses. Results: Quebec has the highest absolute and per capita number of COVID-19 confirmed positive cases, hospitalizations and fatalities in all age groups. In each province, a higher number of women than men test positive for the disease, especially above age 80. Yet consistently across age groups, infected men are more likely to be hospitalized and enter intensive care than women do. These gender differences in hospitalisation rates account for the higher case fatality risk due to COVID-19 among men compared to women. Interpretation: Although health care capacity across provinces has been sufficient to treat severe cases, we find that the main factor accounting for gender differences in COVID-19-related mortality is the need for hospitalization and intensive care, especially above age 80. This suggests a selection effect of severe cases requiring to be treated in a hospital setting that needs to be further investigated.

positive: Using research to prepare for outbreaks of severe acute respiratory infection Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) remain one of the leading causes of mortality around the world in all age groups. There is large global variation in epidemiology, clinical management and outcomes, including mortality. We performed a short period observational data collection in critical care units distributed globally during regional peak SARI seasons from 1 January 2016 until 31 August 2017, using standardised data collection tools. Data were collected for 1 week on all admitted patients who met the inclusion criteria for SARI, with follow-up to hospital discharge. Proportions of patients across regions were compared for microbiology, management strategies and outcomes. Regions were divided geographically and economically according to World Bank definitions. Data were collected for 682 patients from 95 hospitals and 23 countries. The overall mortality was 9.5%. Of the patients, 21.7% were children, with case fatality proportions of 1% for those less than 5 years. The highest mortality was in those above 60 years, at 18.6%. Case fatality varied by region: East Asia and Pacific 10.2% (21 of 206), Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3% (8 of 188), South Asia 0% (0 of 35), North America 13.6% (25 of 184), and Europe and Central Asia 14.3% (9 of 63). Mortality in low-income and low-middle-income countries combined was 4% as compared with 14% in high-income countries. Organ dysfunction scores calculated on presentation in 560 patients where full data were available revealed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores on presentation were significantly associated with mortality and hospital length of stay. Patients in East Asia and Pacific (48%) and North America (24%) had the highest SOFA scores of >12. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that initial SOFA score and age were independent predictors of hospital survival. There was variability across regions and income groupings for the critical care management and outcomes of SARI. Intensive care unit-specific factors, geography and management features were less reliable than baseline severity for predicting ultimate outcome. These findings may help in planning future outbreak severity assessments, but more globally representative data are required.

positive: COVID-19, Australia: Epidemiology Report 3 (Reporting week ending 19:00 AEDT 15 February 2020). This is the third epidemiological report for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), previously known as novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), from the virus now known as SARS-CoV-2, reported in Australia as at 19:00 Australian Eastern Daylight Time [AEDT] 15 February 2020. It includes data on the COVID-19 Australian cases, the international situation and current information on the severity, transmission and spread.

positive: SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data ABSTRACT SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus from China, is spreading around the world, causing a huge reaction despite its current low incidence outside China and the Far East. Four common coronaviruses are in current circulation and cause millions of cases worldwide. This article compares the incidence and mortality rates of these four common coronaviruses with those of SARS-CoV-2 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. It is concluded that the problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably being overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.

positive: Open access epidemiologic data and an interactive dashboard to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada.

positive: Market Area Delineation for Airports to Predict the Spread of Infectious Disease Air travel facilitates the international spread of infectious disease. While global air travel data represent the volume of travel between airports, identifying which airport an infected individual might use, or where a disease might spread after an infected passenger deplanes, remains a largely unexplored area of research and public health practice. This gap can be addressed by estimating airport catchment areas. This research aims to determine how existing market area delineation techniques estimate airport catchments differently, and which techniques are best suited to anticipate where infectious diseases may spread. Multiple techniques were tested for airports in the Province of Ontario, Canada: circular buffers, drive-time buffers, Thiessen polygons, and the Huff model, with multiple variations tested for some techniques. The results were compared qualitatively and quantitatively based on spatial patterns as well as area and population of each catchment area. There were notable differences, specifically between deterministic and probabilistic approaches. Deterministic techniques may only be suitable if all airports in a study area are similar in terms of attractiveness. The probabilistic Huff model appeared to produce more realistic results because it accounted for variation in airport attractiveness. Additionally, the Huff model requires few inputs and therefore would be efficient to execute in situations where time, resources, and data are limited.

positive: Risk of a second wave of Covid-19 infections: using artificial intelligence to investigate stringency of physical distancing policies in North America. PURPOSE Accurately forecasting the occurrence of future covid-19-related cases across relaxed (Sweden) and stringent (USA and Canada) policy contexts has a renewed sense of urgency. Moreover, there is a need for a multidimensional county-level approach to monitor the second wave of covid-19 in the USA. METHOD We use an artificial intelligence framework based on timeline of policy interventions that triangulated results based on the three approaches-Bayesian susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR), Kalman filter, and machine learning. RESULTS Our findings suggest three important insights. First, the effective growth rate of covid-19 infections dropped in response to the approximate dates of key policy interventions. We find that the change points for spreading rates approximately coincide with the timelines of policy interventions across respective countries. Second, forecasted trend until mid-June in the USA was downward trending, stable, and linear. Sweden is likely to be heading in the other direction. That is, Sweden's forecasted trend until mid-June appears to be non-linear and upward trending. Canada appears to fall somewhere in the middle-the trend for the same period is flat. Third, a Kalman filter based robustness check indicates that by mid-June the USA will likely have close to two million virus cases, while Sweden will likely have over 44,000 covid-19 cases. CONCLUSION We show that drop in effective growth rate of covid-19 infections was sharper in the case of stringent policies (USA and Canada) but was more gradual in the case of relaxed policy (Sweden). Our study exhorts policy makers to take these results into account as they consider the implications of relaxing lockdown measures.

positive: Characteristics and Outcomes of Children With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Infection Admitted to US and Canadian Pediatric Intensive Care Units Importance: The recent and ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has taken an unprecedented toll on adults critically ill with COVID-19 infection. While there is evidence that the burden of COVID-19 infection in hospitalized children is lesser than in their adult counterparts, to date, there are only limited reports describing COVID-19 in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Objective: To provide an early description and characterization of COVID-19 infection in North American PICUs, focusing on mode of presentation, presence of comorbidities, severity of disease, therapeutic interventions, clinical trajectory, and early outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included children positive for COVID-19 admitted to 46 North American PICUs between March 14 and April 3, 2020. with follow-up to April 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prehospital characteristics, clinical trajectory, and hospital outcomes of children admitted to PICUs with confirmed COVID-19 infection. Results: Of the 48 children with COVID-19 admitted to participating PICUs, 25 (52%) were male, and the median (range) age was 13 (4.2-16.6) years. Forty patients (83%) had significant preexisting comorbidities; 35 (73%) presented with respiratory symptoms and 18 (38%) required invasive ventilation. Eleven patients (23%) had failure of 2 or more organ systems. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was required for 1 patient (2%). Targeted therapies were used in 28 patients (61%), with hydroxychloroquine being the most commonly used agent either alone (11 patients) or in combination (10 patients). At the completion of the follow-up period, 2 patients (4%) had died and 15 (31%) were still hospitalized, with 3 still requiring ventilatory support and 1 receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The median (range) PICU and hospital lengths of stay for those who had been discharged were 5 (3-9) days and 7 (4-13) days, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: This early report describes the burden of COVID-19 infection in North American PICUs and confirms that severe illness in children is significant but far less frequent than in adults. Prehospital comorbidities appear to be an important factor in children. These preliminary observations provide an important platform for larger and more extensive studies of children with COVID-19 infection.

positive: Cross-Country Age Disparities in COVID-19 Cases with Hospitalization, ICU Usage, and Morbidity In this paper, we examine cross-country differences, in terms of the age distribution of symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) cases, and fatalities due to the novel COVID-19. By calculating conditional probabilities, we bridge country-level incidence data gathered from different countries and attribute the variability in data to country demographics. We then provide case, hospitalization, ICU, and fatality estimates for a comprehensive list of countries using the existing data from a variety of countries.

positive: COVID- 19 Infection in Children: Estimating Pediatric Morbidity and Mortality BACKGROUND: Estimates of pediatric morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 are vital for planning optimal use of human and material resources throughout this pandemic. METHODS: Government websites from countries with minimum 1000 cases in adults and children on April 13, 2020 were searched to find the number of cases confirmed in children, the age range, and the number leading to hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death. A systematic literature search was performed April 13, 2020 to find additional data from cases series. RESULTS: Data on pediatric cases were available from government websites for 23 of the 70 countries with minimum 1000 cases by April 13, 2020. Of 424 978 cases in these 23 countries, 8113 (1.9%) occurred in children. Nine publications provided data from 4251 cases in 4 additional countries. Combining data from the websites and the publications, 330 of 2361 cases required admission (14%). The ICU admission rate was 2.2 % of confirmed cases (44 of 2031) and 7.2% of admitted children (23 of 318). Death was reported for 15 cases. CONCLUSION: Children accounted for 1.9% of confirmed cases. The true incidence of pediatric infection and disease will only be known once testing is expanded to individuals with less severe or no symptoms. Admission rates vary from 0.3 to 10% of confirmed cases (presumably varying with the threshold for testing) with about 7% of admitted children requiring ICU care. Death is rare in middle and high income countries.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 turned positive in a discharged patient with COVID-19 arouses concern regarding the present standard for discharge Abstract An outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China caused by SARS-CoV-2 has led to a serious epidemic in China and other countries, resulting in worldwide concern. With the active efforts from prevention and control, the quantity of discharged patients is escalating. How to manage these patients normatively is still challenging. We hereby reported an asymptomatic discharged patient with COVID-19 who was retested positive for SARS-CoV-2, which arouses concern regarding the present discharge standard of COVID-19.

positive: Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing Extensive physical distancing measures are currently the primary intervention against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. It is therefore urgent to estimate the impact such measures are having. We introduce a Bayesian epidemiological model in which a proportion of individuals are willing and able to participate in distancing measures, with the timing of these measures informed by survey data on attitudes to distancing and COVID-19.We fit our model to reported COVID-19 cases in British Columbia, Canada, using an observation model that accounts for both underestimation and the delay between symptom onset and reporting. We estimate the impact that physical distancing (also known as social distancing)has had on the contact rate and examine the projected impact of relaxing distancing measures. We find that distancing has had a strong impact, consistent with declines in reported cases and in hospitalization and intensive care unit numbers. We estimate that approximately 0.78 (0.66-0.89 90% CI) of contacts have been removed for individuals in British Columbia practising physical distancing and that this fraction is above the threshold of 0.45 at which prevalence is expected to grow. However, relaxing distancing measures beyond this threshold re-starts rapid exponential growth. Because the extent of underestimation is unknown, the data are consistent with a wide range in the prevalence of COVID-19 in the population; changes to testing criteria over time introduce additional uncertainty. Our projections indicate that intermittent distancing measures - if sufficiently strong and robustly followed - could control COVID-19 transmission, but that if distancing measures are relaxed too much, the epidemic curve would grow to high prevalence.

positive: Baseline characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units in Vancouver, Canada: a case series BACKGROUND: Pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with high intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a Canadian setting. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case series of critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection consecutively admitted to 1 of 6 ICUs in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, between Feb. 21 and Apr. 14, 2020. Demographic, management and outcome data were collected by review of patient charts and electronic medical records. RESULTS: Between Feb. 21 and Apr. 14, 2020, 117 patients were admitted to the ICU with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. The median age was 69 (interquartile range [IQR] 60-75) years, and 38 (32.5%) were female. At least 1 comorbidity was present in 86 (73.5%) patients. Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in 74 (63.2%) patients. The duration of mechanical ventilation was 13.5 (IQR 8-22) days overall and 11 (IQR 6-16) days for patients successfully discharged from the ICU. Tocilizumab was administered to 4 patients and hydroxychloroquine to 1 patient. As of May 5, 2020, a total of 18 (15.4%) patients had died, 12 (10.3%) remained in the ICU, 16 (13.7%) were discharged from the ICU but remained in hospital, and 71 (60.7%) were discharged home. INTERPRETATION: In our setting, mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU was lower than in previously published studies. These data suggest that the prognosis associated with critical illness due to COVID-19 may not be as poor as previously reported.

positive: Public health in Canada: Evolution, meaning and a new paradigm for respiratory therapy Chronic disease burden in Canada poses an imminent public health threat. The impact of respiratory disease in Canada alone is significant, affecting one in five and leading any other cause of repeat hospitalization in all age groups. Public health action is considered to be an important means of addressing these issues. Historical understanding of health has evolved to support the adoption of paradigms by professions that recognize the limitations of medical intervention in addressing the fundamental basis of disease when compared with the broader public health perspective. Several key historical events have shaped this understanding in the Canadian context including the Lalonde and Epp reports, and public health emergencies such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2003. The profession of respiratory therapy has historically existed within a medicalized paradigm of practice; however, forces both internal and external to the profession are pressuring it to consider adopting broader social-and population-based approaches. As a rapidly evolving profession, there is a need to explore emerging areas of practice opportunities in the discipline. Investigating alternative knowledge and ideology can ensure that effective strategies for addressing the contemporary respiratory heath needs of Canadians are undertaken. The present article explores the rationale for a public health- and population-based approach to health in general, and its applicability to the respiratory therapist’s role in addressing respiratory health-related issues in Canada.

positive: Post-Discharge Cardiac Care in the Era of Coronavirus 2019: How Should We Prepare? The novel coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) pandemic has placed intense pressure on health care organizations around the world. Among other concerns, there has been an increasing recognition of common and deleterious cardiovascular effects of COVID-19 based on preliminary studies. Furthermore, patients with preexisting cardiac disease are likely to experience a more severe disease course with COVID-19. As case numbers continue to increase exponentially, a surge in the number of patients with new or comorbid cardiovascular disease will translate into more frequent and, in some cases, prolonged rehabilitation needs after acute hospitalization. This report describes the current status of post-discharge cardiac care in Canada and provides suggestions regarding steps that policymakers and health care organizations can take to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: Comparison of Epidemiological Variations in COVID-19 Patients Inside and Outside of China—A Meta-Analysis The objective of this study is to compare the epidemiological variations in COVID-19 patients reported in studies from inside and outside of China. We selected COVID-19 observational studies from eight countries, including, China, Italy, Australia, Canada, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the USA, comprising a total of 13 studies and performed a meta-analysis for age, gender, fatality rate, and clinical symptoms of fever, cough, shortness of breath, and diarrhea. The meta-analysis shows that there are differences in symptoms and other characteristics reported by the patients of COVID-19 inside and outside China. Patients in China have a higher proportion of fever, cough, and shortness of breath as compared to patients outside of China. However, we found the opposite results for the gastrointestinal symptoms such as Diarrhea. Patients outside of China have a significantly higher proportion of Diarrhea as compared to patients within China. We also observed gender disparity among our studies, with the male population being more susceptible than the female population. Moreover, the analysis suggests that the fatality rate in China is relatively lower as compared to the fatality rate in other countries. These findings also suggest that the clinical symptoms of COVID-19 should not be generalized to fever, shortness of breath, and cough only but other symptoms such as diarrhea are also prevalent in patients with COVID-19.

positive: A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modeling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures.

positive: Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms, or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from six countries. We estimate that clinical symptoms occur in 25% (95% CrI: 19-32%) of infections in 10-19-year-olds, rising to 76% (68-82%) in over-70s, and that susceptibility to infection in under-20s is approximately half that of older adults. Accordingly, we find that interventions aimed at children may have a relatively small impact on total cases, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low. The age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility we have estimated has implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19 because of demographic differences across settings: in younger populations, the expected clinical attack rate would be lower, although it is likely that comorbidities in low-income countries will affect disease severity. Without effective control measures, regions with older populations may see disproportionally more clinical cases, particularly in the later stages of the pandemic.

positive: A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coasts The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is of global concern and has recently emerged in the US. In this paper, we construct a stochastic variant of the SEIR model to make a quasi-worst-case scenario prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US West and East Coasts. The model is then fitted to current data and implemented using Runge-Kutta methods. Our computation results predict that the number of new cases would peak around mid-April and begin to abate by July, and that the number of cases of COVID-19 might be significantly mitigated by having greater numbers of functional testing kits available for screening. The model also showed how small changes in variables can make large differences in outcomes and highlights the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics.

positive: Severity of coronavirus respiratory tract infections in adults admitted to acute care in Toronto, Ontario Abstract Background The World Health Organization has highlighted the need for improved surveillance and understanding of the health burden imposed by non-influenza RNA respiratory viruses. Human coronaviruses (CoVs) are a major cause of respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections with associated morbidity and mortality. Objectives The objective of our study was to characterize the epidemiology of CoVs in our tertiary care centre, and identify clinical correlates of disease severity. Study design A cross-sectional study was performed of 226 patients admitted with confirmed CoV respiratory tract infection between 2010 and 2016. Variables consistent with a severe disease burden were evaluated including symptoms, length of stay, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality. Results CoVs represented 11.3% of all positive respiratory virus samples and OC43 was the most commonly identified CoV. The majority of infections were community-associated while 21.6% were considered nosocomial. The average length of stay was 11.8 days with 17.3% of patients requiring ICU admission and an all-cause mortality of 7%. In a multivariate model, female gender and smoking were associated with increased likelihood of admission to ICU or death. Conclusion This study highlights the significant burden of CoVs and justifies the need for surveillance in the acute care setting.

positive: Post-Discharge Cardiac Care in the Era of Coronavirus 2019: How Should We Prepare? Abstract The novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed intense pressure on healthcare organizations around the world. Amongst others, there has been an increasing recognition of common and deleterious cardiovascular effects of COVID-19 based on preliminary studies. Furthermore, patients with pre-existing cardiac disease are likely to experience a more severe disease course with COVID-19. As case numbers continue to increase exponentially, a surge in the number of patients with new or comorbid cardiovascular disease will translate into more frequent, and in some cases, prolonged rehabilitation needs following acute hospitalization. This manuscript describes the current status of post-discharge cardiac care in Canada and provides suggestions with regards to steps that policymakers and healthcare organizations can take to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: How Has COVID-19 Affected Our Orthopedic Implant Industry Partners? Implications for the Surgeon-Industry Relationship in 2020 and Beyond BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching societal and financial consequences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate how COVID-19 has affected AAHKS industry partners and the surgeon-industry relationship, emphasizing education, resource allocation, and strategic direction for the second half of 2020. METHODS: AAHKS industry partners were contacted to participate in a blinded survey and optional interview with the AAHKS Industry Relations Committee. Based on the results, a group of AAHKS member surgeons with disparate practice types were asked to postulate on how the COVID-19 pandemic has and will affect their practice and relationship with Industry. RESULTS: AAHKS industry partner responses indicated decreased resource allocation for regional, "other national," and AAHKS annual meetings (67%, 55%, and 30%, respectively). Web-based educational content was expected to increase in 2020 and will likely remain a point of emphasis in 2021 (100% and 70% of responders). For Q3/Q4 2020, a significant emphasis was placed on site of service/outpatient TJA and COVID-19-related safety measures (70% and 90% of responders), as well as increased availability of instrumentation and implants (40% and 60%, respectively). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the orthopedic landscape for the foreseeable future. Survey responses by AAHKS industry partners demonstrate a continued commitment to surgeon education with an increasing shift to a web-based platform. Increased resource allocation for outpatient TJA and COVID-19-related safety measures were significant. Articulating optimal mechanisms to aid industry in supporting surgeons with different practice models to meet demand during the second half of fiscal year 2020 will be critical.

positive: Communication in the Toronto critical care community: important lessons learned during SARS The SARS outbreak in 2003 pushed Toronto's health care system to its limits. Staffing shortages, transmission of SARS within the ICU, and the influx of critically ill SARS patients were some unique challenges to the delivery of critical care. Communication strategies were a key component in the critical care response to SARS. Regular teleconference calls, web-based training and education, and the rapid coordination of research studies were some of the initiatives developed within the Toronto critical care community during the SARS outbreak. Other critical care communities should consider their communication strategies in advance of similar events.

positive: Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada. BACKGROUND Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province. METHODS We developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset. RESULTS Without self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation of 40%, demand would still exceed available (unoccupied) ICU bed capacity. INTERPRETATION At the peak of COVID-19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with self-isolation at 40%. Our results show the coming challenge for the health care system in Canada and the potential role of self-isolation in reducing demand for hospital-based and ICU care.

positive: Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States BACKGROUND: Estimates of the case-fatality rate (CFR) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary widely in different population settings. We sought to estimate and compare the COVID-19 CFR in Canada and the United States while adjusting for 2 potential biases in crude CFR. METHODS: We used the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada and the US from Jan. 31 to Apr. 22, 2020. We applied a statistical method to minimize bias in the crude CFR by accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death, while considering reporting rates of COVID-19 cases less than 50% (95% confidence interval 10%-50%). RESULTS: Using data for confirmed cases in Canada, we estimated the crude CFR to be 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020, and the adjusted CFR to be 5.5% (credible interval [CrI] 4.9%-6.4%). After we accounted for various reporting rates less than 50%, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.6% (CrI 0.7%-3.1%). The US crude CFR was estimated to be 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, with an adjusted CFR of 6.1% (CrI 5.4%-6.9%). With reporting rates of less than 50%, the adjusted CFR for the US was 1.78 (CrI 0.8%-3.6%). INTERPRETATION: Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rate is less than 50%, the adjusted CFR of COVID-19 in Canada is likely to be less than 2%. The CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada, but the adjusted CFR still remained below 2%. Quantification of case reporting can provide a more accurate measure of the virulence and disease burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

positive: Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada BACKGROUND: Physical-distancing interventions are being used in Canada to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, but it is not clear how effective they will be. We evaluated how different nonpharmaceutical interventions could be used to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and reduce the burden on the health care system. METHODS: We used an age-structured compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in the population of Ontario, Canada. We compared a base case with limited testing, isolation and quarantine to scenarios with the following: enhanced case finding, restrictive physical-distancing measures, or a combination of enhanced case finding and less restrictive physical distancing. Interventions were either implemented for fixed durations or dynamically cycled on and off, based on projected occupancy of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We present medians and credible intervals from 100 replicates per scenario using a 2-year time horizon. RESULTS: We estimated that 56% (95% credible interval 42%-63%) of the Ontario population would be infected over the course of the epidemic in the base case. At the epidemic peak, we projected 107 000 (95% credible interval 60 760-149 000) cases in hospital (non-ICU) and 55 500 (95% credible interval 32 700-75 200) cases in ICU. For fixed-duration scenarios, all interventions were projected to delay and reduce the height of the epidemic peak relative to the base case, with restrictive physical distancing estimated to have the greatest effect. Longer duration interventions were more effective. Dynamic interventions were projected to reduce the proportion of the population infected at the end of the 2-year period and could reduce the median number of cases in ICU below current estimates of Ontario's ICU capacity. INTERPRETATION: Without substantial physical distancing or a combination of moderate physical distancing with enhanced case finding, we project that ICU resources would be overwhelmed. Dynamic physical distancing could maintain health-system capacity and also allow periodic psychological and economic respite for populations.

positive: Understanding heterogeneity to inform the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada

positive: Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken. The results show that the global R_0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.49 (95% CI: 2.15 - 2.92). The United States, Germany, Italy and Spain have peak values over 100,000. According to dynamical model and cluster analysis, we category the globe into four type regional epicenters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 105,903, 127,283 and 152,539, respectively. The United States is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current control measures by Mar. 27, 2020, the peak value in the United States will reach 400,892. Above all, if the current control measures are maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,442,523 (95% CI: 1,052,577 - 8,981,440). We also estimated the diagnosis rate, recovery rate and infection degree of each country or region, and use clustering algorithm to retrieve countries or regions with similar epidemic characteristics. Different suggestions are proposed for countries or regions in different clusters.

positive: Diagnosis and Management of First Case of COVID-19 in Canada: Lessons applied from SARS We report diagnosis and management of the first laboratory-confirmed case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalized in Toronto, Canada. No healthcare-associated transmission occurred. In the face of a potential pandemic of COVID-19, we suggest sustainable and scalable control measures developed based on lessons learned from SARS.

positive: Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in children and youth in Canada, January 15-April 27, 2020 Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 among children and youth in Canada will help to inform public health measures in settings where children gather. As of April 27, 2020, provinces and territories provided the Public Health Agency of Canada with detailed information on 24,079 cases, of which 3.9% (n=938) were younger than 20 years of age. The detection rate per 100,000 population was lower in this age group (11.9 per 100,000), compared with those aged 20-59 years (72.4 per 100,000) and 60 and older (113.6 per 100,000). The median age among those younger than 20 years of age was 13 years, and cases were distributed equally across male and female genders. Among provinces and territories with more than 100 cases, 1.6% to 9.8% of cases were younger than 20 years of age. Cases in this age group were more likely to be asymptomatic: 10.7% compared with 2.4% in those aged 20-59 years and 4.1% in those aged 60 and older. Children and youth experienced severe outcomes less often, but 2.2% (n=15/672) of cases within this age group were severe enough to require hospitalization. Based on available exposure information, 11.3% (n=59/520) of cases aged younger than 20 years had no known contact with a case. Canadian findings align with those of other countries.

positive: Projecting the demand for ventilators at the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak in the USA

positive: Real-time forecasts and risk assessment of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases: A data-driven analysis The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643 confirmed infections and more than 59,170 reported deaths worldwide. The main focus of this paper is two-fold: (a) generating short term (real-time) forecasts of the future COVID-19 cases for multiple countries; (b) risk assessment (in terms of case fatality rate) of the novel COVID-19 for some profoundly affected countries by finding various important demographic characteristics of the countries along with some disease characteristics. To solve the first problem, we presented a hybrid approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average model and Wavelet-based forecasting model that can generate short-term (ten days ahead) forecasts of the number of daily confirmed cases for Canada, France, India, South Korea, and the UK. The predictions of the future outbreak for different countries will be useful for the effective allocation of health care resources and will act as an early-warning system for government policymakers. In the second problem, we applied an optimal regression tree algorithm to find essential causal variables that significantly affect the case fatality rates for different countries. This data-driven analysis will necessarily provide deep insights into the study of early risk assessments for 50 immensely affected countries.

positive: Characteristics and Outcomes of Children With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Infection Admitted to US and Canadian Pediatric Intensive Care Units. Importance The recent and ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has taken an unprecedented toll on adults critically ill with COVID-19 infection. While there is evidence that the burden of COVID-19 infection in hospitalized children is lesser than in their adult counterparts, to date, there are only limited reports describing COVID-19 in pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Objective To provide an early description and characterization of COVID-19 infection in North American PICUs, focusing on mode of presentation, presence of comorbidities, severity of disease, therapeutic interventions, clinical trajectory, and early outcomes. Design, Setting, and Participants This cross-sectional study included children positive for COVID-19 admitted to 46 North American PICUs between March 14 and April 3, 2020. with follow-up to April 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Prehospital characteristics, clinical trajectory, and hospital outcomes of children admitted to PICUs with confirmed COVID-19 infection. Results Of the 48 children with COVID-19 admitted to participating PICUs, 25 (52%) were male, and the median (range) age was 13 (4.2-16.6) years. Forty patients (83%) had significant preexisting comorbidities; 35 (73%) presented with respiratory symptoms and 18 (38%) required invasive ventilation. Eleven patients (23%) had failure of 2 or more organ systems. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was required for 1 patient (2%). Targeted therapies were used in 28 patients (61%), with hydroxychloroquine being the most commonly used agent either alone (11 patients) or in combination (10 patients). At the completion of the follow-up period, 2 patients (4%) had died and 15 (31%) were still hospitalized, with 3 still requiring ventilatory support and 1 receiving extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The median (range) PICU and hospital lengths of stay for those who had been discharged were 5 (3-9) days and 7 (4-13) days, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance This early report describes the burden of COVID-19 infection in North American PICUs and confirms that severe illness in children is significant but far less frequent than in adults. Prehospital comorbidities appear to be an important factor in children. These preliminary observations provide an important platform for larger and more extensive studies of children with COVID-19 infection.

positive: An Evaluation of Neurosurgical Resident Education and Sentiment During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A North American Survey BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a tremendous impact on the healthcare system. Owing to restrictions in elective surgery and social distancing guidelines, the training curriculum for neurosurgical trainees has been rapidly evolving. This evolution could have significant long-term effects on the training of neurosurgery residents. The objective of the present study was to assess the effects of COVID-19 on neurosurgical training programs and residents. METHODS: A survey consisting of 31 questions assessing changes to resident clinical and educational workload and their sentiment regarding how these changes might affect their careers was distributed electronically to neurosurgery residents in the United States and Canada. RESULTS: The survey respondents were from 29 states and Canada and were relatively evenly spread across all levels of residency. Nearly 82% reported that the inpatient and outpatient volumes had been either greatly (44.0%) or moderately (37.8%) reduced. Greater than 91% reported that their work responsibilities or access to the hospital had been reduced, with a significant reduction in work hours and a significant increase in resident didactics (P < 0.001). Senior residents expressed concern about their educational experience and their future career prospects as a result of the pandemic. CONCLUSION: Universally, residents have experienced reduced work hours and a reduction in their operative case volumes. Programs have adapted by increasing didactic time and using electronic platforms. It is quite possible that this remarkable period will prompt a critical reappraisal of the pre-COVID-19 adequacy of educational content in our training programs and that the enhanced educational efforts driven by this pandemic could be lasting.

positive: Reduced COVID-19-Related Critical Illness and Death, and High Risk of Epidemic Resurgence, After Physical Distancing in Ontario, Canada We explored the impact of physical distancing measures on COVID-19 transmission in the population of Ontario, Canada using a previously described age- and health-status stratified transmission model. The model was fit to confirmed cases occupying intensive care unit (ICU) beds and mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 cases for the time period 19 March to 26 April 2020. We projected that mortality would have been 4.6-fold what was observed had physical distancing measures not been implemented in the province. Relaxation of physical distancing measures without compensatory increases in case detection, isolation, and/or contact tracing was projected to result in resurgence of disease activity. Return to normal or near-normal levels of contact would rapidly result in cases exceeding ICU capacity. Maintaining physical distancing for a longer period of time, allowing for the initial wave of infections to subside, delayed this resurgence, but the level of contacts post-restrictive distancing was the major factor determining how quickly ICU capacity was expected to be overwhelmed. Using a model, we demonstrate the marked impact strong public health measures had in reducing ICU admissions and mortality in Ontario. We also show that this hard-earned success is tenuous: relaxation of physical distancing measures in the near-term is projected to result in a rapid resurgence of disease activity.

positive: Global, Regional and National Incidence and Case-fatality rates of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) across 154 countries and territories: A systematic assessment of cases reported from January to March 16, 2020 Background: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak turned into a pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of cases reported globally. The number of cases dramatically increased beginning in early March 2020. Aim: We assessed the cumulative change in the incidence and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 at the global, regional, and national levels from January to March 16, 2020, in 154 affected countries and territories globally. Methods: We collected data of COVID-19 cases using the GitHub repository, which provided real-time surveillance information developed by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University (USA). Information such as confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries reported across all affected countries was collected from January 22 to March 16, 2020. We estimated the change in the incidence rate, case-fatality rate, and recovery rate from January 22 to February 29 and from March 1 to March 16, 2020. Results: From January 22 to March 16, 2020, globally, the number of incident COVID-19 cases increased by 276.2%, and Europe recorded 65,281 new cases from March 1 to 16, 2020. Overall, the case-fatality rate was 3.92%, with a high COVID-19 fatality rate in Italy (7.7%), Iran (5.7%), China (4.2%) and the United Kingdom (3.6%). The estimated percentage change in COVID-19 cases from March 1 to 16, 2020, was highest in Belgium (105.8/100,000 population), followed by Qatar (439/100,000 population) and Portugal (331/100,000 population). The overall recovery rate of COVID-19 was 43%; China (35.5%) had the highest recovery rate, while the United States of America recorded a recovery rate of 0.3%. Conclusion: Overall, all the COVID-19-affected countries showed an upward trend in incidence, with little change in the incidence rate of -0.20% from January to Mid-March. The case-fatality rate was found to be 3.92%, and the recovery rate was observed to be less than half (43%) among COVID-19 patients. Italy, Iran, and Spain had the largest numbers of new cases of COVID-19 from March 1 to 16, 2020.

positive: Modeling risk of infectious diseases: a case of Coronavirus outbreak in four countries Background The novel coronavirus (2019-nCOV) outbreak has been a serious concern around the globe. Since people are in tremor due to the massive spread of Coronavirus in the major parts of the world, it requires to predict the risk of this infectious disease. In this situation, we develop a model to measure the risk of infectious disease and predict the risk of 2019-nCOV transmission by using data of four countries - United States, Australia, Canada and China. Methods The model underlies that higher the population density, higher the risk of transmission of infectious disease from human to human. Besides, population size, case identification rate and travel of infected passengers in different regions are also incorporated in this model. Results According to the calculated risk index, our study identifies New York State in United States (US) to be the most vulnerable area affected by the novel Coronavirus. Besides, other areas (province/state/territory) such as Hubei (China, 2nd), Massachusetts (US, 3rd), District of Columbia (US, 4th), New Jersey (US, 5th), Quebec (Canada, 20th), Australian Capital Territory (Australia, 29th) are also found as the most risky areas in US, China, Australia and Canada. Conclusion The study suggests avoiding any kind of mass gathering, maintaining recommended physical distances and restricting inbound and outbound flights of highly risk prone areas for tackling 2019-nCOV transmission.

positive: First imported case of 2019 novel coronavirus in Canada, presenting as mild pneumonia

positive: Estimating effective reproduction number using generation time versus serial interval, with application to COVID-19 in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada BACKGROUND. The effective reproductive number Re(t) is a critical measure of epidemic potential. Re(t) can be calculated in near real time using an incidence time series and the generation time distribution---the time between infection events in an infector-infectee pair. In calculating Re(t), the generation time distribution is often approximated by the serial interval distribution---the time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair. However, while generation time must be positive by definition, serial interval can be negative if transmission can occur before symptoms, such as in COVID-19, rendering such an approximation improper in some contexts. METHODS. We developed a method to infer the generation time distribution from parametric definitions of the serial interval and incubation period distributions. We then compared estimates of Re(t) for COVID-19 in the Greater Toronto Area of Canada using: negative-permitting versus non-negative serial interval distributions, versus the inferred generation time distribution. RESULTS. We estimated the generation time of COVID-19 to be Gamma-distributed with mean 3.99 and standard deviation 2.96 days. Relative to the generation time distribution, non-negative serial interval distribution caused overestimation of Re(t) due to larger mean, while negative-permitting serial interval distribution caused underestimation of Re(t) due to larger variance. IMPLICATIONS. Approximation of the generation time distribution of COVID-19 with non-negative or negative-permitting serial interval distributions when calculating Re(t) may result in over or underestimation of transmission potential, respectively.

positive: Syndromic Surveillance for COVID-19 in Canada Background: Syndromic surveillance through web or phone-based polling has been used to track the course of infectious diseases worldwide. Our study objective was to describe the characteristics, symptoms, and self-reported testing rates of respondents in three different COVID-19 symptom surveys in Canada. Methods: Data sources consisted of two distinct Canada-wide web-based surveys, and phone polling in Ontario. All three sources contained self-reported information on COVID-19 symptoms and testing. In addition to describing respondent characteristics, we examined symptom frequency and the testing rate among the symptomatic, as well as rates of symptoms and testing across respondent groups. Results: We found that 1.6% of respondents experienced a symptom on the day of their survey, 15% of Ontario households had a symptom in the previous week, and 44% of Canada-wide respondents had a symptom in the previous month over March-April 2020. Across the three surveys, SARS-CoV-2-testing was reported in 2-9% of symptomatic responses. Women, younger and middle-aged adults (versus older adults) and Indigenous/First nations/Inuit/Metis were more likely to report at least one symptom, and visible minorities were more likely to report the combination of fever with cough or shortness of breath. Interpretation: The low rate of testing among those reporting symptoms suggests significant opportunity to expand testing among community-dwelling residents of Canada. Syndromic surveillance data can supplement public health reports and provide much-needed context to gauge the adequacy of current SARS-CoV-2 testing rates.

positive: Impact of the COVID-19 virus outbreak on movement and play behaviours of Canadian children and youth: a national survey BACKGROUND: Healthy childhood development is fostered through sufficient physical activity (PA; including time outdoors), limiting sedentary behaviours (SB), and adequate sleep; collectively known as movement behaviours. Though the COVID-19 virus outbreak has changed the daily lives of children and youth, it is unknown to what extent related restrictions may compromise the ability to play and meet movement behaviour recommendations. This secondary data analysis examined the immediate impacts of COVID-19 restrictions on movement and play behaviours in children and youth. METHODS: A national sample of Canadian parents (n = 1472) of children (5–11 years) or youth (12–17 years) (54% girls) completed an online survey that assessed immediate changes in child movement and play behaviours during the COVID-19 outbreak. Behaviours included PA and play, SB, and sleep. Family demographics and parental factors that may influence movement behaviours were assessed. Correlations between behaviours and demographic and parental factors were determined. For open-ended questions, word frequency distributions were reported. RESULTS: Only 4.8% (2.8% girls, 6.5% boys) of children and 0.6% (0.8% girls, 0.5% boys) of youth were meeting combined movement behaviour guidelines during COVID-19 restrictions. Children and youth had lower PA levels, less outside time, higher SB (including leisure screen time), and more sleep during the outbreak. Parental encouragement and support, parental engagement in PA, and family dog ownership were positively associated with healthy movement behaviours. Although families spent less time in PA and more time in SB, several parents reported adopting new hobbies or accessing new resources. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of immediate collateral consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak, demonstrating an adverse impact on the movement and play behaviours of Canadian children and youth. These findings can guide efforts to preserve and promote child health during the COVID-19 outbreak and crisis recovery period, and to inform strategies to mitigate potential harm during future pandemics.

positive: How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020 Background The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries may inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. Methods We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease by age (5-year age groups), sex and country (n=188) based on prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2017 and United Nations population estimates for 2020. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at-risk because of their age, using thresholds from 50-70 years. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 disease was determined by mapping conditions listed in GBD to the guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. Results We estimate that 1.7 (1.0 - 2.4) billion individuals (22% [15-28%] of the global population) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. The share of the population at increased risk ranges from 16% in Africa to 31% in Europe. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) were the most prevalent conditions in males and females aged 50+ years. African countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Island countries with a high prevalence of diabetes, also had a high share of the population at increased risk. The prevalence of multimorbidity (>1 underlying conditions) was three times higher in Europe than in Africa (10% vs 3%). Conclusion Based on current guidelines and prevalence data from GBD, we estimate that one in five individuals worldwide has a condition that is on the list of those at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. However, for many of these individuals the underlying condition will be undiagnosed or not severe enough to be captured in health systems, and in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest. There is an urgent need for robust analyses of the risks associated with different underlying conditions so that countries can identify the highest risk groups and develop targeted shielding policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: Doubling time tells how effective Covid-19 prevention works Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is a rapidly spreading pandemic in many countries. The total confirmed cases of Covid-19 are exponentially increasing and many countries are fighting Covid-19 with all strategies. However, there is still lacking consensus for effective strategies. Here, I demonstrate the time dependence of the doubling time in the Covid-19 exponential growths. Tracking the time-dependent doubling time tells how well Covid-19 prevention works, giving an index for successful fighting.

positive: The effect of COVID-19 on global population and its fatality rate: Retrospective study by online database OBJECTIVE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a current new virulent disease rising its transmission and fatality with each passing day in the worldwide population. COVID-19 is emerged as a respiratory infection and a suspicious origin of animals and transmission to human in Wuhan, China on December 2019. Later this, the virus was transmitted from person to person through droplets and contacts. The World Health Organization, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China have taken immediate action to reduce transmission and fatality associated with COVID-19 as minimum as possible. However, action has failed to stop transmission of COVID-19 from China to other countries. Since there was no chain break of the virus, the chances are more to increase the case number and fatality. Hence, the study has been designed to perceive the current effect of COVID-19 on the global population and its fatality. The study also focused on review related to treatment for COVID-19. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Online database of epidemic disease COVID-19 cases number was collected from www.channelnewsasia.com on 7(th) April 2020. This data was used to observe the past and present circumstances in the global population and its fatality. The effect of treatment on COVID-19 was reviewed from the few databases of clinical trials (antiviral and antibacterial drugs). RESULTS: The online data are used to observe a significant increase ratio of COVID-19 cases and its fatality rate in worldwide as well as country wise. The COVID-19 cases are high in the United States (27.5%), whereas the fatality rate is high in Italy (12.47%). The prevalence of COVID-19 is expected to be reaching 4 million by the end of April 2020 and the fatality rate also might be reached high. CONCLUSION: We have come to the conclusion that the effect of COVID-19 on the global population is significantly increased and the fatality rate also elevated (2.48% to 5.52%). The hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination treatment has shown significant improvement in patients with COVID-19 compared to treat with other drugs.

positive: Outcomes from intensive care in patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies. The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to high demand for intensive care services worldwide. However, the mortality of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with COVID-19 is unclear. Here, we perform a systematic review and meta-analysis, in line with PRISMA guidelines, to assess the reported ICU mortality for patients with confirmed COVID-19. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed and Cochrane databases up to 31 May 2020 for studies reporting ICU mortality for adult patients admitted with COVID-19. The primary outcome measure was death in intensive care as a proportion of completed intensive care unit admissions, either through discharge from the ICU or death. The definition thus excluded patients still alive on ICU. Twenty-four observational studies including 10,150 patients were identified from centres across Asia, Europe, and North America. In-ICU mortality in reported studies ranged from 0-84.6%. Seven studies reported outcome data for all patients. In the remaining studies, the proportion of patients discharged from ICU at the point of reporting varied from 24.5-97.2%. In patients with completed ICU admissions with COVID-19 infection, combined ICU mortality was 41.6% (95%CI 34.0-49.7%, I2 = 93.2%). Subgroup analysis by continent showed that mortality is broadly consistent across the globe. As the pandemic has progressed the reported mortality rates have reduced from above 50% to close to 40%. The in-ICU mortality from COVID-19 is higher than usually seen in ICU admissions with other viral pneumonias. Importantly, the mortality from completed episodes of ICU differs considerably from the crude mortality rates in some early reports.

positive: COVID-19: a potential public health problem for homeless populations

positive: Critical care capacity in Canada: results of a national cross-sectional study INTRODUCTION: Intensive Care Units (ICUs) provide life-supporting treatment; however, resources are limited, so demand may exceed supply in the event of pandemics, environmental disasters, or in the context of an aging population. We hypothesized that comprehensive national data on ICU resources would permit a better understanding of regional differences in system capacity. METHODS: After the 2009–2010 Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, the Canadian Critical Care Trials Group surveyed all acute care hospitals in Canada to assess ICU capacity. Using a structured survey tool administered to physicians, respiratory therapists and nurses, we determined the number of ICU beds, ventilators, and the ability to provide specialized support for respiratory failure. RESULTS: We identified 286 hospitals with 3170 ICU beds and 4982 mechanical ventilators for critically ill patients. Twenty-two hospitals had an ICU that routinely cared for children; 15 had dedicated pediatric ICUs. Per 100,000 population, there was substantial variability in provincial capacity, with a mean of 0.9 hospitals with ICUs (provincial range 0.4-2.8), 10 ICU beds capable of providing mechanical ventilation (provincial range 6–19), and 15 invasive mechanical ventilators (provincial range 10–24). There was only moderate correlation between ventilation capacity and population size (coefficient of determination (R(2)) = 0.771). CONCLUSION: ICU resources vary widely across Canadian provinces, and during times of increased demand, may result in geographic differences in the ability to care for critically ill patients. These results highlight the need to evolve inter-jurisdictional resource sharing during periods of substantial increase in demand, and provide background data for the development of appropriate critical care capacity benchmarks. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-015-0852-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

positive: Baseline characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units in Vancouver, Canada: a case series. BACKGROUND Pandemic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is associated with high intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a Canadian setting. METHODS We conducted a retrospective case series of critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection consecutively admitted to 1 of 6 ICUs in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, between Feb. 21 and Apr. 14, 2020. Demographic, management and outcome data were collected by review of patient charts and electronic medical records. RESULTS Between Feb. 21 and Apr. 14, 2020, 117 patients were admitted to the ICU with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19. The median age was 69 (interquartile range [IQR] 60-75) years, and 38 (32.5%) were female. At least 1 comorbidity was present in 86 (73.5%) patients. Invasive mechanical ventilation was required in 74 (63.2%) patients. The duration of mechanical ventilation was 13.5 (IQR 8-22) days overall and 11 (IQR 6-16) days for patients successfully discharged from the ICU. Tocilizumab was administered to 4 patients and hydroxychloroquine to 1 patient. As of May 5, 2020, a total of 18 (15.4%) patients had died, 12 (10.3%) remained in the ICU, 16 (13.7%) were discharged from the ICU but remained in hospital, and 71 (60.7%) were discharged home. INTERPRETATION In our setting, mortality in critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU was lower than in previously published studies. These data suggest that the prognosis associated with critical illness due to COVID-19 may not be as poor as previously reported.

positive: Key highlights from the Canadian Thoracic Society’s Position Statement on the Optimization of Asthma Management during the COVID-19 Pandemic

positive: Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada Background: We evaluated how non-pharmaceutical interventions could be used to control the COVID-19 pandemic and reduce the burden on the healthcare system Methods: Using an age-structured compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in the population of Ontario, Canada, we compared a base case with limited testing, isolation, and quarantine to scenarios with: enhanced case finding;restrictive social distancing measures;or a combination of enhanced case finding and less restrictive social distancing Interventions were either implemented for fixed durations or dynamically cycled on and off, based on projected ICU bed occupancy We present median and credible intervals (CrI) from 100 replicates per scenario using a two-year time horizon Results: We estimated that 56% (95% CrI: 42-63%) of the Ontario population would be infected over the course of the epidemic in the base case At the epidemic peak, we projected 107,000 (95% CrI: 60,760-149,000) cases in hospital and 55,500 (95% CrI: 32,700-75,200) cases in ICU For fixed duration scenarios, all interventions were projected to delay and reduce the height of the epidemic peak relative to the base case, with restrictive social distancing estimated to have the greatest effect Longer duration interventions were more effective Dynamic interventions were projected to reduce the proportion of the population infected at the end of the two-year period Dynamic social distancing interventions could reduce the median number of cases in ICU below current estimates of Ontario's ICU capacity Interpretation: Without significant social distancing or a combination of moderate social distancing with enhanced case finding, we project that ICU resources would be overwhelmed Dynamic social distancing could maintain health system capacity and also allow periodic psychological and economic respite for populations ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest ### Funding Statement The research was supported by a grant to DNF from the Canadians Institutes for Health Research (2019 COVID-19 rapid researching funding OV4-170360) ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed;any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials gov I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance) Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable Yes Data are available from the corresponding author on request

positive: COVID-19 Pandemic: Global Impact and Potential Implications for Cardiovascular Disease in Canada BACKGROUND: Literature indicates that cardiovascular disease (CVD, including stroke), older age, and availability of healthcare resources impact COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFR). The cumulative effect of COVID-19 CFR in global CVD populations and the extrapolated impact on access to healthcare services in the CVD population in Canada are not fully known. This study explored the relationships of factors that may impact COVID-19 CFR and estimated the potential indirect impact of COVID-19 on Canadian healthcare resources. METHODS: Country-level epidemiological data were analyzed to study the correlation, main effect, and interaction between COVID-19 CFR and: a) proportion of the population with CVD, b) proportion of the population ≥ 65 years, and c) availability of essential health services as defined by the World Health Organization Universal Health Coverage (UHC) index. For indirect implications on healthcare resources, estimates of the volume of postponed coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and valve surgeries in Ontario were calculated. RESULTS: Positive correlations were found between COVID-19 CFR and a) proportion of the population with CVD (ρ=0.40, p=0.001), b) proportion of the population ≥ 65 years (ρ=0.43, p=0.0005) and c) UHC index (ρ=0.27, p=0.03). For every 1% increase in proportion of the population ≥ 65 years or proportion of the population with CVD, COVID-19 CFR was 9% and 19% higher, respectively. Approximately 1,252 procedures would be postponed monthly in Ontario due to current public health measures. CONCLUSIONS: Countries with more prevalent CVD reported higher COVID-19 CFR. Strain on healthcare resources is likely in Canada.

positive: Time Series Forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada Using LSTM Networks Abstract On March 11 th 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019 novel corona virus as global pandemic. Corona virus, also known as COVID-19 was first originated in Wuhan, Hubei province in China around December 2019 and spread out all over the world within few weeks. Based on the public datasets provided by John Hopkins university and Canadian health authority, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 outbreak in Canada using state-of-the-art Deep Learning (DL) models. In this novel research, we evaluated the key features to predict the trends and possible stopping time of the current COVID-19 outbreak in Canada and around the world. In this paper we presented the Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a deep learning approach to forecast the future COVID-19 cases. Based on the results of our Long short-term memory (LSTM) network, we predicted the possible ending point of this outbreak will be around June 2020. In addition to that, we compared transmission rates of Canada with Italy and USA. Here we also presented the 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 th day predictions for 2 successive days. Our forecasts in this paper is based on the available data until March 31, 2020. To the best of our knowledge, this of the few studies to use LSTM networks to forecast the infectious diseases.

positive: Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality The COVID-19 outbreak is triggering a global crisis that is challenging governments, health systems and the scientific community worldwide. A central question in the COVID-19 pandemic is whether climatic factors modulate its progression. This information is key to epidemiologists and healthcare decision-makers for improving their management plans. Previous attempts to assess the impact of climatic parameters have yielded ambiguous results, either because they were using geographically or temporally restricted data, or because they were comparing infection rates across countries, which were measured differently depending on local screening strategies. In March 2020, the spread of COVID-19 dramatically increased the number of countries recording deaths, providing an opportunity to use mortality rate, which is measured more homogeneously across countries than infection rates, as a descriptor of the COVID-19 outbreak over a large latitudinal range. Here, using data recorded in 208 territories from 88 countries, we show that mortality rate is negatively influenced by warmer air temperature and positively affected by higher relative humidity. Each additional Celsius degree decreases mortality rate by ~4%, while a 1% increase in relative humidity raises mortality rate by ~2%. Temperature is positively correlated with UV-index, for which one unit of increase results in a ~15% decrease in the mortality rate. We also show that other factors contribute to the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak, such as the proportion of vulnerable age classes in the population, access to a non-overwhelmed health system, as well as governmental travel restrictions for controlling the spread of the disease. All of them are critical factors impacting the mortality rate of COVID-19. The influence of climatic factors is a warning to all southern hemisphere countries where winter is coming soon. Northern hemisphere countries should also be warned that climatic factors alone will likely not be sufficient to contain the disease.

positive: Open access epidemiologic data and an interactive dashboard to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada

positive: An interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real time

positive: Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada BACKGROUND: Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province. METHODS: We developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset. RESULTS: Without self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation of 40%, demand would still exceed available (unoccupied) ICU bed capacity. INTERPRETATION: At the peak of COVID-19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with self-isolation at 40%. Our results show the coming challenge for the health care system in Canada and the potential role of self-isolation in reducing demand for hospital-based and ICU care.

positive: Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters OBJECTIVE: To provide estimates of the relative rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 years old versus older individuals in the general population, the absolute risk of COVID-19 death at the population level during the first epidemic wave, and the proportion of COVID-19 deaths in non-elderly people without underlying diseases in epicenters of the pandemic. ELIGIBLE DATA: Cross-sectional survey of countries and US states with at least 800 COVID-19 deaths as of April 24, 2020 and with information on the number of deaths in people with age <65. Data were available for 14 countries (Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK) and 13 US states (California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania). We also examined available data on COVID-19 deaths in people with age <65 and no underlying diseases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportion of COVID-19 deaths in people <65 years old; relative mortality rate of COVID-19 death in people <65 versus ≥65 years old; absolute risk of COVID-19 death in people <65 and in those ≥80 years old in the general population as of June 17, 2020; absolute COVID-19 mortality rate expressed as equivalent of mortality rate from driving a motor vehicle. RESULTS: Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5–11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3–22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106–483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7–3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico. CONCLUSIONS: People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

positive: Estimates of COVID-19 case-fatality risk from individual-level data When calculated from aggregate data on confirmed cases and deaths, the case-fatality risk (CFR) is a simple ratio between the former and the latter, which is prone to numerous biases. With individual-level data, the CFR can be estimated as a true measure of risk as the proportion of incidence for the disease. We present the first estimates of the CFR for COVID-19 by age and sex based on event history modelling of the risk of dying among confirmed positive individuals in the Canadian province of Ontario, which maintains one of the few individual-level datasets on COVID-19 in the world.

positive: Fear of the coronavirus (COVID-19): Predictors in an online study conducted in March 2020 Fear is an adaptive response in the presence of danger. However, when threat is uncertain and continuous, as in the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, fear can become chronic and burdensome. To identify predictors of fear of the coronavirus, we conducted an online survey (N = 439) three days after the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic (i.e., between March 14 and 17, 2020). Fear of the coronavirus was assessed with the newly developed Fear of the Coronavirus Questionnaire (FCQ) consisting of eight questions pertaining to different dimensions of fear (e.g., subjective worry, safety behaviors, preferential attention), and an open-ended question. The predictors included psychological vulnerability factors (i.e., intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and health anxiety), media exposure, and personal relevance (i.e., personal health, risk for loved ones, and risk control). We found four predictors for the FCQ in a simultaneous regression analysis: health anxiety, regular media use, social media use, and risks for loved ones (R(2) = .37). Furthermore, 16 different topics of concern were identified based participants’ open-ended responses, including the health of loved ones, health care systems overload, and economic consequences. We discuss the relevance of our findings for managing people’s fear of the coronavirus.

positive: A Public Health Laboratory Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. An outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) began in Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019, and spread rapidly worldwide. The response by the Alberta Precision Laboratories, Public Health Laboratory (ProvLab), Alberta, Canada, included the development and implementation of nucleic acid detection based assays and dynamic changes in testing protocols for the identification of cases as the epidemic curve increased exponentially. This rapid response was essential to slow down and contain transmission and provide valuable time to the local health authorities to prepare appropriate response strategies. As of May 24, 2020, 236,077 specimens were tested with 6475 (2.74%) positives detected in the province of Alberta, Canada. Several commercial assays are now available; however, the response from commercial vendors to develop and market validated tests is a time-consuming process. In addition, the massive global demand made it difficult to secure a reliable commercial supply of testing kits and reagents.A public health laboratory serves a unique and important role in the delivery of health care. One of its functions is to anticipate and prepare for novel emerging pathogens with a plan for pandemic preparedness. Here we outline the response that involved the development and deployment of testing methodologies that evolved as SARS-CoV-2 spread world-wide, the challenges encountered, and mitigation strategies. We also provide insight into the organizational structure of how a public health response is coordinated in Alberta and its benefits.

positive: Considerations for Postacute Rehabilitation for Survivors of COVID-19 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first reported on December 31, 2019. Because it has only been studied for just over three months, our understanding of this disease is still incomplete, particularly regarding its sequelae and long-term outcomes. Moreover, very little has been written about the rehabilitation needs of patients with COVID-19 after discharge from acute care. The objective of this report is to answer the question “What rehabilitation services do survivors of COVID-19 require?” The question was asked within the context of a subacute hospital delivering geriatric inpatient and outpatient rehabilitation services. Three areas relevant to rehabilitation after COVID-19 were identified. First, details of how patients may present have been summarized, including comorbidities, complications from an intensive care unit stay with or without intubation, and the effects of the virus on multiple body systems, including those pertaining to cardiac, neurological, cognitive, and mental health. Second, I have suggested procedures regarding the design of inpatient rehabilitation units for COVID-19 survivors, staffing issues, and considerations for outpatient rehabilitation. Third, guidelines for rehabilitation (physiotherapy, occupational therapy, speech-language pathology) following COVID-19 have been proposed with respect to recovery of the respiratory system as well as recovery of mobility and function. A thorough assessment and an individualized, progressive treatment plan which focuses on function, disability, and return to participation in society will help each patient to maximize their function and quality of life. Careful consideration of the rehabilitation environment will ensure that all patients recover as completely as possible.

positive: What can early Canadian experience screening for COVID-19 teach us about how to prepare for a pandemic?

positive: Temporal estimates of case-fatality rate for COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada and the United States. BACKGROUND Estimates of the casefatality rate (CFR) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vary widely in different population settings. We sought to estimate and compare the COVID-19 CFR in Canada and the United States while adjusting for 2 potential biases in crude CFR. METHODS We used the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in Canada and the US from Jan. 31 to Apr. 22, 2020. We applied a statistical method to minimize bias in the crude CFR by accounting for the survival interval as the lag time between disease onset and death, while considering reporting rates of COVID-19 cases less than 50% (95% confidence interval 10%-50%). RESULTS Using data for confirmed cases in Canada, we estimated the crude CFR to be 4.9% on Apr. 22, 2020, and the adjusted CFR to be 5.5% (credible interval [CrI] 4.9%-6.4%). After we accounted for various reporting rates less than 50%, the adjusted CFR was estimated at 1.6% (CrI 0.7%-3.1%). The US crude CFR was estimated to be 5.4% on Apr. 20, 2020, with an adjusted CFR of 6.1% (CrI 5.4%-6.9%). With reporting rates of less than 50%, the adjusted CFR for the US was 1.78 (CrI 0.8%-3.6%). INTERPRETATION Our estimates suggest that, if the reporting rate is less than 50%, the adjusted CFR of COVID-19 in Canada is likely to be less than 2%. The CFR estimates for the US were higher than those for Canada, but the adjusted CFR still remained below 2%. Quantification of case reporting can provide a more accurate measure of the virulence and disease burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

positive: Coronavirus disease 2019 in children: Surprising findings in the midst of a global pandemic. Question Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting millions of people worldwide. It seems that it affects mostly adults older than 40 years of age, and the death rate is highest for older individuals in the population. What should I tell parents worried about their children contracting the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19, and what symptoms should I look for to determine if there is a need to test for the virus?Answer The COVID-19 global pandemic affects all ages. Severe respiratory manifestations have been the mainstay of illness in adults, with what seems to be rapid deterioration necessitating mechanical ventilation. Only 5% of those tested and found to have COVID-19 have been younger than 19 years, possibly owing to limited testing, as the symptoms in children are usually mild. Symptoms in children include fever, dry cough, rhinorrhea, sore throat, and fatigue, and in 10% diarrhea or vomiting. Rarely dyspnea or hypoxemia were also described. Blood tests and imaging have been shown to be of little value in children and should only be ordered for those in whom you would normally order these investigations for viral-like illness. No specific therapy is available and supportive care with rest, fluids, and antipyretics for children is the recommended approach. Ibuprofen or acetaminophen for fever and pain can be given. Antiviral and immunomodulatory treatment is not recommended at this time for otherwise healthy children, and corticosteroids should also not be used. Children with immunocompromised states should be isolated and avoid contact with others.

positive: Estimation of COVID-19-induced depletion of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada. BACKGROUND The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues in several jurisdictions, causing substantial strain to health care systems. The purpose of our study was to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient outcomes and use of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada. METHODS We developed an individuallevel simulation to model the flow of patients with COVID-19 through the hospital system in Ontario. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectory and hospital health care capacity. Our outcomes included the number of patients who needed admission to the ward or to the intensive care unit (ICU) with or without the need for mechanical ventilation, number of days to resource depletion, number of patients awaiting resources and number of deaths. RESULTS We found that with effective early public health measures, hospital system resources would not be depleted. For scenarios with late or ineffective implementation of physical distancing, hospital resources would be depleted within 14-26 days, and in the worst case scenario, 13 321 patients would die while waiting for needed resources. Resource depletion would be avoided or delayed with aggressive measures to increase ICU, ventilator and acute care hospital capacities. INTERPRETATION We found that without aggressive physical distancing measures, the Ontario hospital system would have been inadequately equipped to manage the expected number of patients with COVID-19 despite a rapid increase in capacity. This lack of hospital resources would have led to an increase in mortality. By slowing the spread of the disease using public health measures and by increasing hospital capacity, Ontario may have avoided catastrophic stresses to its hospitals.

positive: Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19 Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider both the age composition of local and national contexts as well as the social connectedness of older and younger generations. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted nowcasting.

positive: Canada and coronavirus: could have done better

positive: Time Series Forecasting of COVID-19 transmission in Canada Using LSTM Networks On March 11 th 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) declared the 2019 novel corona virus as global pandemic. Corona virus, also known as COVID-19 was first originated in Wuhan, Hubei province in China around December 2019 and spread out all over the world within few weeks. Based on the public datasets provided by John Hopkins university and Canadian health authority, we have developed a forecasting model of COVID-19 outbreak in Canada using state-of-the-art Deep Learning (DL) models. In this novel research, we evaluated the key features to predict the trends and possible stopping time of the current COVID-19 outbreak in Canada and around the world. In this paper we presented the Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, a deep learning approach to forecast the future COVID-19 cases. Based on the results of our Long short-term memory (LSTM) network, we predicted the possible ending point of this outbreak will be around June 2020. In addition to that, we compared transmission rates of Canada with Italy and USA. Here we also presented the 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 and 14 th day predictions for 2 successive days. Our forecasts in this paper is based on the available data until March 31, 2020. To the best of our knowledge, this of the few studies to use LSTM networks to forecast the infectious diseases.

positive: Real-time Forecast of Multiphase Outbreak We used a single equation with discrete phases to fit the daily cumulative case data from the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in Toronto. This model enabled us to estimate turning points and case numbers during the 2 phases of this outbreak. The 3 estimated turning points are March 25, April 27, and May 24. The estimated case number during the first phase of the outbreak between February 23 and April 26 is 140.53 (95% confidence interval [CI] 115.88–165.17) if we use the data from February 23 to April 4; and 249 (95% CI: 246.67–251.25) at the end of the second phase on June 12 if we use the data from April 28 to June 4. The second phase can be detected by using case data just 3 days past the beginning of the phase, while the first and third turning points can be identified only ≈10 days afterwards. Our modeling procedure provides insights into ongoing outbreaks that may facilitate real-time public health responses.

positive: Estimation of COVID-19-induced depletion of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada BACKGROUND: The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues in several jurisdictions, causing substantial strain to health care systems. The purpose of our study was to predict the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient outcomes and use of hospital resources in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: We developed an individual-level simulation to model the flow of patients with COVID-19 through the hospital system in Ontario. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectory and hospital health care capacity. Our outcomes included the number of patients who needed admission to the ward or to the intensive care unit (ICU) with or without the need for mechanical ventilation, number of days to resource depletion, number of patients awaiting resources and number of deaths. RESULTS: We found that with effective early public health measures, hospital system resources would not be depleted. For scenarios with late or ineffective implementation of physical distancing, hospital resources would be depleted within 14-26 days, and in the worst case scenario, 13 321 patients would die while waiting for needed resources. Resource depletion would be avoided or delayed with aggressive measures to increase ICU, ventilator and acute care hospital capacities. INTERPRETATION: We found that without aggressive physical distancing measures, the Ontario hospital system would have been inadequately equipped to manage the expected number of patients with COVID-19 despite a rapid increase in capacity. This lack of hospital resources would have led to an increase in mortality. By slowing the spread of the disease using public health measures and by increasing hospital capacity, Ontario may have avoided catastrophic stresses to its hospitals.

positive: Cross-Country Comparison of Case Fatality Rates of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2 OBJECTIVES: Case fatality rates (CFR) and recovery rates are important readouts during epidemics and pandemics. In this article, an international analysis was performed on the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: Data were retrieved from accurate databases according to the user’s guide of data sources for patient registries, CFR and recovery rates were calculated for each country. A comparison of CFR between countries with total cases ≥ 1,000 was observed for 12(th) and 23(rd) March. RESULTS: Italy’s CFR was the highest of all countries studied for both time points (12(th) March, 6.22% versus 23(rd) March, 9.26%). The data showed that even though Italy was the only European country reported on 12(rd) March, Spain and France had the highest CFR of 6.16 and 4.21%, respectively, on 23(rd) March, which was strikingly higher than the overall CFR of 3.61%. CONCLUSION: Obtaining detailed and accurate medical history from COVID-19 patients, and analyzing CFR alongside the recovery rate, may enable the identification of the highest risk areas so that efficient medical care may be provided. This may lead to the development of point-of-care tools to help clinicians in stratifying patients based on possible requirements in the level of care, to increase the probabilities of survival from COVID-19 disease.

positive: Coronavirus disease 2019 in children: Surprising findings in the midst of a global pandemic Question Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is affecting millions of people worldwide. It seems that it affects mostly adults older than 40 years of age, and the death rate is highest for older individuals in the population. What should I tell parents worried about their children contracting the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19, and what symptoms should I look for to determine if there is a need to test for the virus?Answer The COVID-19 global pandemic affects all ages. Severe respiratory manifestations have been the mainstay of illness in adults, with what seems to be rapid deterioration necessitating mechanical ventilation. Only 5% of those tested and found to have COVID-19 have been younger than 19 years, possibly owing to limited testing, as the symptoms in children are usually mild. Symptoms in children include fever, dry cough, rhinorrhea, sore throat, and fatigue, and in 10% diarrhea or vomiting. Rarely dyspnea or hypoxemia were also described. Blood tests and imaging have been shown to be of little value in children and should only be ordered for those in whom you would normally order these investigations for viral-like illness. No specific therapy is available and supportive care with rest, fluids, and antipyretics for children is the recommended approach. Ibuprofen or acetaminophen for fever and pain can be given. Antiviral and immunomodulatory treatment is not recommended at this time for otherwise healthy children, and corticosteroids should also not be used. Children with immunocompromised states should be isolated and avoid contact with others.

positive: Precautions and Procedures for Coronary and Structural Cardiac Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Guidance from Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology Abstract The globe is currently in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. This pandemic has placed considerable stress on health care resources and providers. This document from the Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology - Association Canadienne de Cardiologie d'intervention, specifically addresses the implications for the care of patients in the Cardiac Catheterization Laboratory (CCL) in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. The key principles of this document are to maintain essential interventional cardiovascular care while minimizing risks of COVID-19 to patients/staff and maintaining the overall healthcare resources. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, procedures will be increased or reduced based on the current level of restriction to health care services. While some consistency across the country is desirable, provincial and regional considerations will influence how these recommendations are implemented. We believe the framework and recommendations in this document will provide crucial guidance for clinicians and policy makers on the management of coronary and structural procedures in the CCL as the COVID-19 pandemic escalates and eventually abates.

positive: It can be dangerous to take epidemic curves of COVID-19 at face value During an epidemic with a new virus, we depend on modelling to plan the response: but how good are the data? The aim of our work was to better understand the impact of misclassification errors in identification of true cases of COVID-19 on epidemic curves. Data originated from Alberta, Canada (available on 28 May 2020). There is presently no information of sensitivity (Sn) and specificity (Sp) of laboratory tests used in Canada for the causal agent for COVID-19. Therefore, we examined best attainable performance in other jurisdictions and similar viruses. This suggested perfect Sp and Sn 60-95%. We used these values to re-calculate epidemic curves to visualize the potential bias due to imperfect testing. If the sensitivity improved, the observed and adjusted epidemic curves likely fall within 95% confidence intervals of the observed counts. However, bias in shape and peak of the epidemic curves can be pronounced, if sensitivity either degrades or remains poor in the 60-70% range. These issues are minor early in the epidemic, but hundreds of undiagnosed cases are likely later on. It is therefore hazardous to judge progress of the epidemic based on observed epidemic curves unless quality of testing is better understood.

positive: Clinical impact of COVID-19 on patients with cancer (CCC19): a cohort study BACKGROUND: Data on patients with COVID-19 who have cancer are lacking. Here we characterise the outcomes of a cohort of patients with cancer and COVID-19 and identify potential prognostic factors for mortality and severe illness. METHODS: In this cohort study, we collected de-identified data on patients with active or previous malignancy, aged 18 years and older, with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection from the USA, Canada, and Spain from the COVID-19 and Cancer Consortium (CCC19) database for whom baseline data were added between March 17 and April 16, 2020. We collected data on baseline clinical conditions, medications, cancer diagnosis and treatment, and COVID-19 disease course. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality within 30 days of diagnosis of COVID-19. We assessed the association between the outcome and potential prognostic variables using logistic regression analyses, partially adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, and obesity. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04354701, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Of 1035 records entered into the CCC19 database during the study period, 928 patients met inclusion criteria for our analysis. Median age was 66 years (IQR 57–76), 279 (30%) were aged 75 years or older, and 468 (50%) patients were male. The most prevalent malignancies were breast (191 [21%]) and prostate (152 [16%]). 366 (39%) patients were on active anticancer treatment, and 396 (43%) had active (measurable) cancer. At analysis (May 7, 2020), 121 (13%) patients had died. In logistic regression analysis, independent factors associated with increased 30-day mortality, after partial adjustment, were: increased age (per 10 years; partially adjusted odds ratio 1·84, 95% CI 1·53–2·21), male sex (1·63, 1·07–2·48), smoking status (former smoker vs never smoked: 1·60, 1·03–2·47), number of comorbidities (two vs none: 4·50, 1·33–15·28), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 2 or higher (status of 2 vs 0 or 1: 3·89, 2·11–7·18), active cancer (progressing vs remission: 5·20, 2·77–9·77), and receipt of azithromycin plus hydroxychloroquine (vs treatment with neither: 2·93, 1·79–4·79; confounding by indication cannot be excluded). Compared with residence in the US-Northeast, residence in Canada (0·24, 0·07–0·84) or the US-Midwest (0·50, 0·28–0·90) were associated with decreased 30-day all-cause mortality. Race and ethnicity, obesity status, cancer type, type of anticancer therapy, and recent surgery were not associated with mortality. INTERPRETATION: Among patients with cancer and COVID-19, 30-day all-cause mortality was high and associated with general risk factors and risk factors unique to patients with cancer. Longer follow-up is needed to better understand the effect of COVID-19 on outcomes in patients with cancer, including the ability to continue specific cancer treatments. FUNDING: American Cancer Society, National Institutes of Health, and Hope Foundation for Cancer Research.

positive: Pandemic Parliaments: Canadian Legislatures in a Time of Crisis Canadian legislatures’ responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have raised questions about whether and how parliaments should continue to meet during the pandemic (Reid, 2020; Thomas, 2020a). The purpose of this research note is twofold: (1) to document how Canadian legislatures have changed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and (2) to assess the effect of these responses on legislatures’ ability to fulfill their core functions. Through an analysis of parliamentary records from all elected federal, provincial and territorial legislatures in Canada, we find that the role of parliaments as sites of citizen representation has suffered the most, whereas the scrutinizing and legislative functions of parliaments have tended to be preserved, albeit in a significantly truncated form. We argue that patterns in legislatures' varied responses to the pandemic reveal which aspects of parliamentary functioning these bodies de facto prioritize and which are at risk of being eroded.

positive: Sensitivity of nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva for the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) We enrolled 53 consecutive in-patients with COVID-19 at six hospitals in Toronto, Canada, and tested one nasopharyngeal swab/saliva sample pair from each patient for SARS-CoV-2. Overall, sensitivity was 89% for nasopharyngeal swabs and 77% for saliva (p=NS); difference in sensitivity was greatest for sample pairs collected later in illness.

positive: Severity of coronavirus respiratory tract infections in adults admitted to acute care in Toronto, Ontario BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization has highlighted the need for improved surveillance and understanding of the health burden imposed by non-influenza RNA respiratory viruses. Human coronaviruses (CoVs) are a major cause of respiratory and gastrointestinal tract infections with associated morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVES: The objective of our study was to characterize the epidemiology of CoVs in our tertiary care centre, and identify clinical correlates of disease severity. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was performed of 226 patients admitted with confirmed CoV respiratory tract infection between 2010 and 2016. Variables consistent with a severe disease burden were evaluated including symptoms, length of stay, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality. RESULTS: CoVs represented 11.3% of all positive respiratory virus samples and OC43 was the most commonly identified CoV. The majority of infections were community-associated while 21.6% were considered nosocomial. The average length of stay was 11.8 days with 17.3% of patients requiring ICU admission and an all-cause mortality of 7%. In a multivariate model, female gender and smoking were associated with increased likelihood of admission to ICU or death. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the significant burden of CoVs and justifies the need for surveillance in the acute care setting.

positive: Bibliometric Analysis of Global Scientific Research on SARSCoV-2 (COVID-19) Background and Aim: Since late 2019, an unknown-origin pneumonia outbreak detected in Wuhan city, Hubei Province, China. We aimed to build a model to qualitatively and quantitatively assess publications of research of COVID-19 from 2019 to 2020. Materials and Methods: Data were obtained from the Web of Science (WOS), PubMed, and Scopus Core Collection on March 02, 2020, and updated on March 10. We conducted a qualitative and quantitative analysis of publication outputs, journals, authors, institutions, countries, cited references, keywords, and terms according to bibliometric methods using VOS viewer c software packages. Results: Initially, we identified 227 papers, of which after an exclusion process, 92 studies were selected for statistical analyses. China accounted for the highest proportion of published research (44 papers, 40.48%), followed by the United States (21 papers, 19.32%), and Canada (7 papers, 6.44%). Adjusted by gross domestic product (GDP), ranked first, with 0.003 articles per billion GDP. In total, the top 10 journals published 47 articles, which accounted for 51.08% of all publications in this Feld. A total of 6 studies (05.52%) were supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China. Chinese Academy of Sciences ranked second 2, 2.76%). Conclusion: Bibliometric and visualized mapping may quantitatively monitor research performance in science and present predictions. The subject of this study was the fast growing publication on COVID-19. Most studies are published in journals with very high impact factors (IFs) and other journals are more interested in this type of research.

positive: Lack of coordination and medical disinformation in Canadian self-assessment tools for COVID-19 As SARS-CoV-2 threatens to overwhelm health systems in Canada, it is imperative that provinces are able to plan and manage an effective and reduced risk response. For this response to be most effective, it must reflect an evidence-based, pan-Canadian response. We designed four different prototypical patients with a combination of common COVID-19 symptoms and opportunities for exposure who were made to self-assess using the 10 provincial COVID-19 self-assessment tools on 1 April. These tools were developed to allow individuals to self-triage, allowing health systems direct capacity to testing and care. We assessed the consistency of the self-assessment tools and of the guidance provided to the patients. While the tools generally screen in three areas, the scope of included COVID-19 associated symptoms as well as the opportunities for exposure, and therefore transmission, vary between provinces such that no two provinces screened in the same way. This was, in turn, reflected in the inconsistency in guidance found. A patient with cough who had travelled abroad or had close contact with a confirmed case within 14 days received the most consistent guidance, with remaining patients receiving guidance ranging from mandatory quarantine or self-isolation to being told they did not have COVID-19 symptoms, guidance at odds with medical evidence. Thus, there is not a single, evidence-based Canadian standard of care simply for self-assessment. Without consistency in public health guidance, Canadians cannot appropriately self-isolate to mitigate community transmission, nor can the necessary valid and reliable data be collected to inform critical epidemiological models that help guide pandemic response. If federal and provincial governments are unable to coordinate a response, Parliament must use its available jurisdiction to legislate a duty on both to follow national standards, so as to improve coordination on COVID-19 in coming months.

positive: COVID-19 in Canada: Predictions for the future and control lessons from Asia COVID-19 has spread with unequal efficiency in various parts of the world. In several European countries including Italy, the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases has followed a consistent, exponential pattern of spread. However, some countries, notably Taiwan and Hong Kong, have achieved a different outcome and have managed to bring the COVID-19 outbreak in their countries rapidly under control, without entering the exponential pattern and with very few cases. They have used several different approaches to COVID-19 outbreak control, including the innovative use of smartphone technology and the widespread use of surgical face masks. We show through our models, that Canada has followed the same, consistent COVID-19 exponential growth pattern that is seen in Italy. Both nationally and in its most heavily affected provinces, there is exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, making it possible to make predictions for the future, if no further interventions are made in public health policy. In particular, we argue for the urgent introduction of surgical face masks in health care and other settings and the harnessing of the power of smartphone technology on a national scale.

positive: Epidemiological and genetic analysis of severe acute respiratory syndrome Summary The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in 2002–2003 showed how quickly a novel infectious disease can spread both within communities and internationally. We have reviewed the epidemiological and genetic analyses that have been published both during and since these epidemics, and show how quickly data were collected and analyses undertaken. Key factors that determine the speed and scale of transmission of an infectious disease were estimated using statistical and mathematical modelling approaches, and phylogenetic analyses provided insights into the origin and evolution of the SARS-associated coronavirus. The SARS literature continues to grow, and it is hoped that international collaboration in the analysis of epidemiological and contact-network databases will provide further insights into the spread of this newly emergent infectious disease.

positive: Health-related concerns and precautions during the COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison of Canadians with and without underlying health conditions BACKGROUND: The risk of experiencing adverse outcomes from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), such as hospitalization, admission to intensive care units and death, is elevated for older individuals and those with certain underlying health conditions including diabetes, chronic conditions affecting lungs, heart or kidneys, and a compromised immune system. DATA AND METHODS: Data collected between March 29 and April 3, 2020 from the Canadian Perspectives Survey Series 1: Impacts of COVID-19 (n=4,627) were used to estimate the prevalence of underlying health conditions, health concerns and precautionary behaviours among Canadians aged 15 or older living in the provinces. Multivariate analyses examined associations between these variables after accounting for age, sex and education. RESULTS: Close to 1 in 4 Canadians (24%) had an underlying health condition that increased their risk of adverse outcomes from COVID-19. Overall, 36% of the population were very or extremely concerned about the impact of COVID-19 on their own health. Individuals with underlying health conditions had higher odds (odds ratio: 2.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.6 to 2.5) of being highly concerned than those without these conditions, after adjustment for demographic characteristics. High percentages of Canadians took precautions to reduce the risk of infection regardless of whether or not they had underlying health conditions. DISCUSSION: Health status was associated with higher levels of concern for one's own health in the early period of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most Canadians were taking precautions recommended by public health authorities to protect themselves and others.

positive: And now for something completely different: from 2019-nCoV and COVID-19 to 2020-nMan

positive: Mathematical modelling of COVID-19 transmission and mitigation strategies in the population of Ontario, Canada. BACKGROUND Physical-distancing interventions are being used in Canada to slow the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, but it is not clear how effective they will be. We evaluated how different nonpharmaceutical interventions could be used to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and reduce the burden on the health care system. METHODS We used an age-structured compartmental model of COVID-19 transmission in the population of Ontario, Canada. We compared a base case with limited testing, isolation and quarantine to scenarios with the following: enhanced case finding, restrictive physical-distancing measures, or a combination of enhanced case finding and less restrictive physical distancing. Interventions were either implemented for fixed durations or dynamically cycled on and off, based on projected occupancy of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. We present medians and credible intervals from 100 replicates per scenario using a 2-year time horizon. RESULTS We estimated that 56% (95% credible interval 42%-63%) of the Ontario population would be infected over the course of the epidemic in the base case. At the epidemic peak, we projected 107 000 (95% credible interval 60 760-149 000) cases in hospital (non-ICU) and 55 500 (95% credible interval 32 700-75 200) cases in ICU. For fixed-duration scenarios, all interventions were projected to delay and reduce the height of the epidemic peak relative to the base case, with restrictive physical distancing estimated to have the greatest effect. Longer duration interventions were more effective. Dynamic interventions were projected to reduce the proportion of the population infected at the end of the 2-year period and could reduce the median number of cases in ICU below current estimates of Ontario's ICU capacity. INTERPRETATION Without substantial physical distancing or a combination of moderate physical distancing with enhanced case finding, we project that ICU resources would be overwhelmed. Dynamic physical distancing could maintain health-system capacity and also allow periodic psychological andeconomic respite for populations.

positive: Acute care utilization due to hospitalizations for pediatric lower respiratory tract infections in British Columbia, Canada BACKGROUND: Pediatric LRTI hospitalizations are a significant burden on patients, families, and healthcare systems. This study determined the burden of pediatric LRTIs on hospital settings in British Columbia and the benefits of prevention strategies as they relate to healthcare resource demand. METHODS: LRTI inpatient episodes for patients <19 years of age during 2008–2010 were extracted from the BC Discharge Abstract Database. The annual number of acute care beds required to treat pediatric LRTIs was estimated. Sub-analyses determined the burden due to infants <1 year of age and high-risk infants. Population projections were used to forecast LRTI hospitalizations and the effectiveness of public health initiatives to reduce the incidence of LRTIs to 2020 and 2030. RESULTS: During 2008–2010, LRTI as the primary diagnosis accounted for 32.0 and 75.9% hospitalizations for diseases of the respiratory system in children <19 years of age and infants <1 year of age, respectively. Infants <1 year of age accounted for 47 and 77% hospitalizations due to pediatric LRTIs and pediatric LRTI hospitalizations specifically due to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), respectively. The average length of stay was 3.1 days for otherwise healthy infants <1 year of age and 9.1 days for high-risk infants (P <0.0001). 73.1% pediatric LRTI hospitalizations occurred between November and April. Over the study timeframe, 19.6 acute care beds were required on average to care for pediatric LRTIs which increased to 64.0 beds at the peak of LRTI hospitalizations. Increases in LRTI bed-days of 5.5 and 16.2% among <19 year olds by 2020 and 2030, respectively, were predicted. Implementation of appropriate prevention strategies could cause 307 and 338 less LRTI hospitalizations in <19 year olds in 2020 and 2030, respectively. CONCLUSION: Pediatric LRTI hospitalizations require significant use of acute care infrastructure particularly between November and April. Population projections show the burden may increase in the next 20 years, but implementation of effective public health prevention strategies may contribute to reducing the acute care demand and to supporting efforts for overall pediatric healthcare sustainability.

positive: SARS oubreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (``SEIJR'') to extract average properties and rate constants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario (Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions are made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current effect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for Hong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between March 31st and April 6th, followed by a {\it significant} slowing in the number of new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic rate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS' average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza \cite{CC2}. Although it would not be surprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than ten per cent in some regions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed heterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the long-term impact of SARS.

positive: Genome Organization of Canada Goose Coronavirus, A Novel Species Identified in a Mass Die-off of Canada Geese The complete genome of a novel coronavirus was sequenced directly from the cloacal swab of a Canada goose that perished in a die-off of Canada and Snow geese in Cambridge Bay, Nunavut, Canada. Comparative genomics and phylogenetic analysis indicate it is a new species of Gammacoronavirus, as it falls below the threshold of 90% amino acid similarity in the protein domains used to demarcate Coronaviridae. Additional features that distinguish the genome of Canada goose coronavirus include 6 novel ORFs, a partial duplication of the 4 gene and a presumptive change in the proteolytic processing of polyproteins 1a and 1ab.

positive: It's a small world after all: A Canadian resident's perspective on COVID-19 COVID-19 has infected millions of people, with an estimated total dead in the hundreds of thousands. This has significantly impacted health care, including who is delivering it, how it is delivered, and how it is taught. This article describes challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of a Canadian nuclear medicine resident, including new risks with nuclear imaging, navigating new and sometimes challenging guidelines, as well as working and living within the confines of social distancing.

positive: Coronavirus mapping in scientific publications: When science advances rapidly and collectively, is access to this knowledge open to society? The COVID-19 pandemic is creating a global health emergency. Mapping this health emergency in scientific publications demands multiple approaches to obtain a picture as complete as possible. To progress in the knowledge of this pandemic and to control its effects, international collaborations between researchers are essentials, as well as having open and immediate access to scientific publications, what we called “coopetition”. Our main objectives are to identify the most productive countries in coronavirus publications, to analyse the international scientific collaboration on this topic, and to study the proportion and typology of open accessibility to these publications. We have analyzed 18,875 articles indexed in Web of Science. We performed the descriptive statistical analysis in order to explore the performance of the more prolific countries and organizations, as well as paying attention to the last 2 years. Registers have been analyzed separately via the VOSviewer software, drawing a network of links among countries and organizations to identify the starred countries and organizations, and the strongest links of the net. We have explored the capacity of researchers to generate scientific knowledge about a health crisis emergency, and their global capacity to collaborate among them in a global emergency. We consider that science is moving rapidly to find solutions to international health problems but access to this knowledge by society is not so quick due to several limitations (open access policies, corporate interests, etc.). We have observed that papers from China in the last 3 months (from January 2020 to March 2020) have a strong impact compared with papers published in years before. The United States and China are the major producers of documents of our sample, followed by all European countries, especially the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and France. At the same time, the leading role of Saudi Arabia, Canada or South Korea should be noted, with a significant number of documents submitted but very different dynamics of international collaboration. The proportion of international collaboration is growing in all countries in 2019–2020, which contrasts with the situation of the last two decades. The organizations providing the most documents to the sample are mostly Chinese. The percentage of open access articles on coronavirus for the period 2001–2020 is 59.2% but if we focus in 2020 the figures increase up to 91.4%, due to the commitment of commercial publishers with the emergency.

positive: Intensive Care Unit Resource Planning During COVID-19 Emergency at the Regional Level: the Italian case. Severe acute respiratory syndrome Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) has been declared a worldwide emergency and a pandemic disease by the World Health Organisation (WHO). It started in China in December 2019, and it is currently rapidly spreading throughout Italy, which is now the most affected country after China. There is great attention for the diffusion and evolution of the CoVid-19 infection which started from the north (particularly in the Lombardia region) and it is now rapidly affecting other Italian regions. We investigate on the impact of patients hospitalisation in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) at a regional and subregional granularity. We propose a model derived from well-known models in epidemic to estimate the needed number of places in intensive care units. The model will help decision-makers to plan resources in the short and medium-term in order to guarantee appropriate treatments to all patients needing it. We analyse Italian data at regional level up to March 15th aiming to: (i) support health and government decision-makers in gathering rapid and efficient decisions on increasing health structures capacities (in terms of ICU slots) and (ii) define a scalable geographic model to plan emergency and future CoVid-19 patients management using reallocating them among health structures. Finally, the here proposed model can be useful in countries where CoVid-19 is not yet strongly diffused.

positive: Guidelines for preventing respiratory illness in older adults aged 60 years and above living in long-term care: A rapid review of clinical practice guidelines Background: The overall objective of this rapid review was to identify infection protection and control recommendations from published clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) for adults aged 60 years and older in long-term care settings Methods: Comprehensive searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and relevant CPG publishers/repositories were carried out in early March 2020. Title/abstract and full-text screening, data abstraction, and quality appraisal (AGREE-II) were carried out by single reviewers. Results: A total of 17 relevant CPGs were identified, published in the USA (n=8), Canada (n=6), Australia (n=2), and the United Kingdom (n=1). All of the CPGs dealt with infection control in long-term care facilities (LTCF) and addressed various types of viral respiratory infections (e.g., influenza, COVID-19, severe acute respiratory syndrome). Ten or more CPGs recommended the following infection control measures in LTCF: hand hygiene (n=13), wearing personal protective equipment (n=13), social distancing or isolation (n=13), disinfecting surfaces (n=12), droplet precautions (n=12), surveillance and evaluation (n=11), and using diagnostic testing to confirm illness (n=10). While only two or more CPGs recommended these infection control measures: policies and procedures for visitors, staff and/or residents (n=9), respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette (n=9), providing supplies (n=9), staff and/or residents education (n=8), increasing communication (n=6), consulting or notifying health professionals (n=6), appropriate ventilation practices (n=2), and cohorting equipment (n=2). Ten CPGs also addressed management of viral respiratory infections in LTCF and recommended antiviral chemoprophylaxis (n=10) and one CPG recommended early mobilization of residents. Conclusion: The recommendations from current guidelines overall seem to support environmental measures for infection prevention and antiviral chemoprophylaxis for infection management as the most appropriate first-line response to viral respiratory illness in long-term care.

positive: Risk factors affecting COVID-19 case fatality rate: A quantitative analysis of top 50 affected countries Background: Latest clinical data on treatment on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) indicated that older patients and those with underlying history of smoking, hypertension or diabetes mellitus might have poorer prognosis of recovery from COVID-19. We aimed to examine the relationship of various prevailing population-based risk factors in comparison with mortality rate and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19. Methods: Demography and epidemiology data which have been identified as verified or postulated risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 were used. The number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths until April 16, 2020 for all affected countries were extracted from Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 websites. Datasets for indicators that are fitting with the factors of COVID-19 mortality were extracted from the World Bank database. Out of about 185 affected countries, only top 50 countries were selected to be analyzed in this study. The following seven variables were included in the analysis, based on data availability and completeness: 1) proportion of people aged 65 above, 2) proportion of male in the population, 3) diabetes prevalence, 4) smoking prevalence, 5) current health expenditure, 6) number of hospital beds and 7) number of nurses and midwives. Quantitative analysis was carried out to determine the correlation between CFR and the aforementioned risk factors. Results: United States shows about 0.20% of confirmed cases in its country and it has about 4.85% of CFR. Luxembourg shows the highest percentage of confirmed cases of 0.55% but a low 2.05% of CFR, showing that a high percentage of confirmed cases does not necessarily lead to high CFR. There is a significant correlation between CFR, people aged 65 and above (p = 0.35) and diabetes prevalence (p = 0.01). However, in our study, there is no significant correlation between CFR of COVID-19, male gender (p = 0.26) and smoking prevalence (p = 0.60). Conclusion: Older people above 65 years old and diabetic patients are significant risk factors for COVID-19. Nevertheless, gender differences and smoking prevalence failed to prove a significant relationship with COVID-19 mortality rate and CFR. Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, risk, epidemiology, fatality, age, diabetes

positive: Understanding the Perceived Mental Health of Canadians During the COVID-19 Pandemic. BACKGROUND While the physical health implications of the COVID-19 pandemic are regularly publicly available, the mental health toll on Canadians is unknown. This article examines the self-perceived mental health of Canadians during the COVID-19 pandemic and explores associations with various concerns after accounting for socioeconomic and health factors. DATA The cross-sectional Canadian Perspectives Survey Series 1 collected information related to COVID-19 in late March and early April 2020 concerning labour market participation, behaviours, and health for the Canadian population 15 years and older living in the 10 provinces. METHODS Socioeconomic and health characteristics of respondents as well as concerns about the impact of COVID-19 were examined to determine differences in experiencing excellent or very good compared to good, fair or poor perceived mental health. RESULTS Just over half of Canadians aged 15 and older (54%) reported excellent or very good mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several concerns were also associated with mental health. Notably, after considering the effects of socioeconomic and health characteristics, women, youth, individuals with a physical health condition and those who were very or extremely concerned with family stress from confinement were less likely to report excellent or very good mental health. DISCUSSION These findings point to particular risks for lower perceived mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results highlight various concerns of Canadians which may be associated with mental health, in particular, family stress in the home.

positive: North American COVID-19 ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NACMI) registry: Rationale, design, and implications() BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has resulted in a global pandemic. Patients with cardiovascular risk factors or established cardiovascular disease are more likely to experience severe or critical COVID-19 illness and myocardial injury is a key extra-pulmonary manifestation. These patients frequently present with ST-elevation on an electrocardiogram (ECG) due to multiple etiologies including obstructive, non-obstructive, and/or angiographically normal coronary arteries. The incidence of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) mimics in COVID-19 positive hospitalized patients, and the association with morbidity and mortality is unknown. Understanding the natural history and appropriate management of COVID-19 patients presenting with ST elevation is essential to inform patient management decisions and protect healthcare workers. METHODS: The Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) and The Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology (CAIC) in conjunction with the American College of Cardiology Interventional Council have collaborated to create a multi-center observational registry, North American COVID-19 ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction (NACMI). This registry will enroll confirmed COVID-19 patients and persons under investigation (PUI) with new ST-segment elevation or new onset left bundle branch block (LBBB) on the ECG with clinical suspicion of myocardial ischemia. We will compare demographics, clinical findings, outcomes and management of these patients with a historical control group of over 15,000 consecutive STEMI activation patients from the Midwest STEMI Consortium using propensity matching. The primary clinical outcome will be in- hospital major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as composite of all-cause mortality, stroke, recurrent MI, and repeat unplanned revascularization in COVID-19 confirmed or PUI. Secondary outcomes will include the following: reporting of etiologies of ST Elevation; cardiovascular mortality due to myocardial infarction, cardiac arrest and /or shock; individual components of the primary outcome; composite primary outcome at one year; as well as ECG and angiographic characteristics. CONCLUSION: The multicenter NACMI registry will collect data regarding ST elevation on ECG in COVID-19 patients to determine the etiology and associated clinical outcomes. The collaboration and speed with which this registry has been created, refined, and promoted serves as a template for future research endeavors.

positive: Global epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): disease incidence, daily cumulative index, mortality, and their association with country healthcare resources and economic status ABSTRACT It has been 2 months since the first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported in Wuhan, China. So far, COVID-19 has affected 85 403 patients in 57 countries/territories and has caused 2924 deaths in 9 countries. However, epidemiological data differ between countries. Although China had higher morbidity and mortality than other sites, the number of new daily cases in China has been lower than outside of China since 26 February 2020. The incidence ranged from 61.44 per 1 000 000 people in the Republic of Korea to 0.0002 per 1 000 000 people in India. The daily cumulative index (DCI) of COVID-19 (cumulative cases/no. of days between the first reported case and 29 February 2020) was greatest in China (1320.85), followed by the Republic of Korea (78.78), Iran (43.11) and Italy (30.62). However, the DCIs in other countries/territories were <10 per day. Several effective measures including restricting travel from China, controlling the distribution of masks, extensive investigation of COVID-19 spread, and once-daily press conferences by the government to inform and educate people were aggressively conducted in Taiwan. This is probably the reason why there was only 39 cases (as of 29 February 2020) with a DCI of 1 case per day in Taiwan, which is much lower than that of nearby countries such as the Republic of Korea and Japan. In addition, the incidence and mortality were correlated with the DCI. However, further study and continued monitoring are needed to better understand the underlying mechanism of COVID-19.

positive: Air pollution in Ontario, Canada during the COVID-19 State of Emergency In March of 2020, the province of Ontario declared a State of Emergency (SOE) to reduce the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This disruption to the economy provided an opportunity to measure change in air pollution when the population spends more time at home with fewer trips. Hourly air pollution observations were obtained for fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ozone from the Ontario air monitoring network for 2020 and the previous five years. The analysis is focused on a five-week period during the SOE with a previous five-week period used as a control. Fine particulate matter did not show any significant reductions during the SOE. Ozone concentrations at 12 of the 32 monitors were lower than any of the previous five-years; however, four locations were above average. Average ozone concentrations were 1 ppb lower during the SOE, but this ranged at individual monitors from 1.5 ppb above to 4.2 ppb below long-term conditions. Nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxides demonstrated a reduction across Ontario, and both pollutants displayed their lowest concentrations for 22 of 29 monitors. Individual monitors ranged from 1 ppb (nitrogen dioxide) and 5 ppb (nitrogen oxides) above average to 4.5 (nitrogen dioxide) and 7.1 ppb (nitrogen oxides) below average. Overall, both nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxides demonstrated a reduction across Ontario in response to the COVID-19 SOE, ozone concentrations suggested a possible reduction, and fine particulate matter has not varied from historic concentrations.

positive: Using Machine Learning to Estimate Unobserved COVID-19 Infections in North America BACKGROUND: The detection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases remains a huge challenge. As of April 22, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to take its toll, with >2.6 million confirmed infections and >183,000 deaths. Dire projections are surfacing almost every day, and policymakers worldwide are using projections for critical decisions. Given this background, we modeled unobserved infections to examine the extent to which we might be grossly underestimating COVID-19 infections in North America. METHODS: We developed a machine-learning model to uncover hidden patterns based on reported cases and to predict potential infections. First, our model relied on dimensionality reduction to identify parameters that were key to uncovering hidden patterns. Next, our predictive analysis used an unbiased hierarchical Bayesian estimator approach to infer past infections from current fatalities. RESULTS: Our analysis indicates that, when we assumed a 13-day lag time from infection to death, the United States, as of April 22, 2020, likely had at least 1.3 million undetected infections. With a longer lag time-for example, 23 days-there could have been at least 1.7 million undetected infections. Given these assumptions, the number of undetected infections in Canada could have ranged from 60,000 to 80,000. Duarte's elegant unbiased estimator approach suggested that, as of April 22, 2020, the United States had up to >1.6 million undetected infections and Canada had at least 60,000 to 86,000 undetected infections. However, the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering data feed on April 22, 2020, reported only 840,476 and 41,650 confirmed cases for the United States and Canada, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified 2 key findings: (1) as of April 22, 2020, the United States may have had 1.5 to 2.029 times the number of reported infections and Canada may have had 1.44 to 2.06 times the number of reported infections and (2) even if we assume that the fatality and growth rates in the unobservable population (undetected infections) are similar to those in the observable population (confirmed infections), the number of undetected infections may be within ranges similar to those described above. In summary, 2 different approaches indicated similar ranges of undetected infections in North America. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level V. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

positive: A path out of COVID-19 quarantine: an analysis of policy scenarios In this work we present an analysis of the two major strategies currently implemented around the world in the fight against COVID-19: Social distancing & shelter-in-place measures to protect the susceptible, and testing & contact-tracing to identify, isolate and treat the infected. The majority of countries have principally relied on the former; we consider the examples of Italy, Canada and the United States. By fitting a disease transmission model to daily case report data, we infer that in each of the three countries, the current level of national shutdown is equivalent to about half the population being under quarantine. We demonstrate that in the absence of other measures, scaling back social distancing in such a way as to prevent a second wave will take prohibitively long. In contrast, South Korea, a country that has managed to control and suppress its outbreak principally through mass testing and contact tracing, and has only instated a partial shutdown. For all four countries, we estimate the level of testing which would be required to allow a complete exit from shutdown and a full lifting of social distancing measures, without a resurgence of COVID-19. We find that a "brute-force" approach of untargeted universal testing requires an average testing rate of once every 36 to 48 hours for every individual, depending on the country. If testing is combined with contact tracing, and/or if tests are able to identify latent infection, then an average rate of once every 4 to 5 days is sufficient.

positive: COVID-19, Fiscal Federalism and Provincial Debt: Have We Reached a Critical Juncture? In 2019, Canada's gross subnational debt to GDP was well over 40 per cent, easily the highest in the world (see Figure 1). This level will only grow as the provinces grapple with the pandemic and its fiscal effects. Some believe surging provincial debts have brought Canadian federalism to a critical juncture: they have greatly increased the odds of federal measures to stabilize provincial finances. This article assesses this claim. The cleanest and most balanced path to fiscal sustainability is a combination of enhanced federal transfers, which would bolster provincial fiscal capacity, and national fiscal rules, which would constrain provincial borrowing. But the former is unlikely to restore sustainability on its own, and the latter would require a severe provincial debt crisis, which Canada's existing fiscal federal structures can avoid. COVID-19 has increased the odds of certain reforms, and it is difficult to predict their long-run effects. But any obvious paths to fiscal sustainability remain hidden.

positive: Aligning difficult airway guidelines with the anesthetic COVID-19 guidelines to develop a COVID-19 difficult airway strategy: a narrative review The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is caused by a coronavirus that is transmitted primarily via aerosol, droplets or direct contact. This may place anesthetists at higher risk of infection due to their frequent involvement in aerosol-generating airway interventions. Many anesthethetic COVID-19 guidelines have emerged, whose underlying management principles include minimizing aerosol contamination and protecting healthcare workers. These guidelines originate from Australia and New Zealand, Canada, China, India, Italy, Korea, Singapore, the United States and the United Kingdom. Hospitalized COVID-19 patients may require airway interventions, and difficult tracheal intubation secondary to laryngeal edema has been reported. Pre-pandemic difficult airway guidelines include those from Canada, France, Germany, India, Japan, Scandinavia, the United States and the United Kingdom. These difficult airway guidelines require modifications in order to align with the principles of the anesthetic COVID-19 guidelines. In turn, most of the anesthetic COVID-19 guidelines do not, or only briefly, discuss an airway strategy after failed tracheal intubation. Our article identifies and compares pre-pandemic difficult airway guidelines with the recent anesthetic COVID-19 guidelines. We combine the principles from both sets of guidelines and explain the necessary modifications to the airway guidelines, to form a failed tracheal intubation airway strategy in the COVID-19 patient. Valuing, and a greater understanding of, these differences and modifications may lead to greater adherence to the new COVID-19 guidelines.

positive: Sex-specific differences in COVID-19 testing, cases and outcomes: a population-wide study in Ontario, Canada In this population-wide study in Ontario, Canada we report on all 194,372 unique residents who received testing for SARS-CoV-2 between January 23, 2020 and April 28, 2020. We found that while more women than men were tested for SARS-CoV-2, men had a higher rate of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, ICU admission and death. These findings were consistent even with age adjustment, suggesting that the observed differences in outcomes between women and men were not explained by age or systematic differences in testing by sex. Instead, they may be due to sex-based immunological or other gendered differences, such as higher rates of smoking leading to cardiovascular disease.

positive: Human Coronavirus NL63 Infection in Canada The isolation of human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) in The Netherlands raised questions about its contribution to respiratory illness. In this study, a total of 525 respiratory specimens, collected in Canada primarily during the winter months of 2001–2002, were tested for HCoV-NL63; 19 tested positive for HCoV-NL63, demonstrating virus activity during January–March 2002. Patients with HCoV-NL63 were 1 month-100 years old (median age, 37 years). The main clinical presentations were fever (15/19), sore throat (5/19), and cough (9/19), and 4 patients were hospitalized. These results provide evidence for the worldwide distribution of HCoV-NL63.

positive: Estimated surge in hospitalization and intensive care due to the novel coronavirus pandemic in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada: a mathematical modeling study with application at two local area hospitals Background: A hospital-level pandemic response involves anticipating local surge in healthcare needs. Methods: We developed a mechanistic transmission model to simulate a range of scenarios of COVID-19 spread in the Greater Toronto Area. We estimated healthcare needs against 2019 daily admissions using healthcare administrative data, and applied outputs to hospital-specific data on catchment, capacity, and baseline non-COVID admissions to estimate potential surge by day 90 at two hospitals (St. Michaels Hospital [SMH] and St. Josephs Health Centre [SJHC]). We examined fast/large, default, and slow/small epidemics, wherein the default scenario (R0 2.4) resembled the early trajectory in the GTA. Results: Without further interventions, even a slow/small epidemic exceeded the citys daily ICU capacity for patients without COVID-19. In a pessimistic default scenario, for SMH and SJHC to remain below their non-ICU bed capacity, they would need to reduce non-COVID inpatient care by 70% and 58% respectively. SMH would need to create 86 new ICU beds, while SJHC would need to reduce its ICU beds for non-COVID care by 72%. Uncertainty in local epidemiological features was more influential than uncertainty in clinical severity. If physical distancing reduces contacts by 20%, maximizing the diagnostic capacity or syndromic diagnoses at the community-level could avoid a surge at each hospital. Interpretation: As distribution of the citys surge varies across hospitals over time, efforts are needed to plan and redistribute ICU care to where demand is expected. Hospital-level surge is based on community-level transmission, with community-level strategies key to mitigating each hospitals surge. Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic preparedness, mathematical model, transmission model

positive: The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic on U.S. and Canadian PICUs OBJECTIVES: There are limited reports of the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic focused on U.S. and Canadian PICUs. This hypothesis-generating report aims to identify the United States and Canadian trends of coronavirus disease 2019 in PICUs. DESIGN AND SETTING: To better understand how the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic was affecting U.S. and Canadian PICUs, an open voluntary daily data collection process of Canadian and U.S. PICUs was initiated by Virtual Pediatric Systems, LLC (Los Angeles, CA; http://www.myvps.org) in mid-March 2020. Information was made available online to all PICUs wishing to participate. A secondary data collection was performed to follow-up on patients discharged from those PICUs reporting coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: To date, over 180 PICUs have responded detailing 530 PICU admissions requiring over 3,467 days of PICU care with 30 deaths. The preponderance of cases was in the eastern regions. Twenty-four percent of the patients admitted to the PICUs were over 18 years old. Fourteen percent of admissions were under 2 years old. Nearly 60% of children had comorbidities at admission with the average length of stay increasing by age and by severity of comorbidity. Advanced respiratory support was necessary during 67% of the current days of care, with 69% being conventional mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: PICUs have been significantly impacted by the pandemic. They have provided care not only for children but also adults. Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 have a high frequency of comorbidities, require longer stays, more ventilatory support than usual PICU admissions. These data suggest several avenues for further exploration.

positive: Current Understanding of COVID-19 Clinical Course and Investigational Treatments Importance: Currently, there is no unified framework linking disease progression to established viral levels, clinical tests, inflammatory markers, and investigational treatment options. Objective: It may take many weeks or months to establish a standard treatment approach. Given the growing morbidity and mortality with respect to COVID-19, we present a treatment approach based on a thorough review of scholarly articles and clinical reports. Our focus is on staged progression, clinical algorithms, and individualized treatment. Evidence Review: We followed the protocol for a quality review article proposed by Heyn et. al.1 A literature search was conducted to find all relevant studies related to COVID-19. The search was conducted between April 1, 2020 and April 13, 2020 using the following electronic databases: PubMed (1809 to present), Google Scholar (1900 to present), MEDLINE (1946 to present), CINAHL (1937 to present), and Embase (1980 to present). Keywords used included COVID-19, 2019-nCov, SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV, with terms such as efficacy, seroconversion, microbiology, pathophysiology, viral levels, inflammation, survivability, and treatment and pharmacology. No language restriction was placed on the search. Reference lists were manually scanned for additional studies. Findings: Of the articles found in the literature search, 70 were selected for inclusion in this study (67 cited in the body of the manuscript and 3 additional unique references in the Figures). The articles represent work from China, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Rwanda, Israel, France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Canada, and the United States. Most of the articles were cohort or case studies, but we also drew upon information found in guidelines from hospitals and clinics instructing their staff on procedures to follow. In addition, we based some decisions on data collected by agencies such as the CDC, FDA, IHME, ISDA, and Worldometer. None of the case studies or cohort studies used a large number of participants. The largest group of participants numbered less than 500 and some case studies had fewer than 30 patients. However, the review of the literature revealed the need for individualized treatment protocols due to the variability of patient clinical presentation and survivability. A number of factors appear to influence mortality: the stage at which the patient first presented for care, pre-existing health conditions, age, and the viral load the patient carried. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 can be divided into three distinct Stages, beginning at the time of infection (Stage I), sometimes progressing to pulmonary involvement (Stage II, with or without hypoxemia) and less frequently to systemic inflammation (Stage III). In addition to modeling the stages of disease progression, we have also created a treatment algorithm which considers age, comorbidities, clinical presentation, and disease progression to suggest drug classes or treatment modalities. This paper presents the first evidence-based recommendations for individualized treatment for COVID-19.

positive: COVID-19: Pandemic Risk, Resilience and Possibilities for Aging Research The COVID-19 global crisis is reshaping Canadian society in unexpected and profound ways. The significantly higher morbidity and mortality risks by age suggest that this is largely a “gero-pandemic,” which has thrust the field of aging onto center stage. This editorial emphasizes that vulnerable older adults are also those most affected by COVID-19 in terms of infection risk, negative health effects, and the potential deleterious outcomes on a range of social, psychological, and economic contexts – from ageism to social isolation. We also contend that the pathogenic analysis of this pandemic needs to be balanced with a salutogenic approach that examines the positive adaptation of people, systems and society, termed COVID-19 resilience. This begs the question: how and why do some older adults and communities adapt and thrive better than others? This examination will lead to the identification and response to research and data gaps, challenges, and innovative opportunities as we plan for a future in which COVID-19 has become another endemic infection in the growing list of emerging and re-emerging pathogens.

positive: Estimating the cure rate and case fatality rate of the ongoing epidemic COVID-19 The epidemic caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19 in Wuhan at the end of 2019 has become an urgent public event of worldwide concern. However, due to the changing data of the epidemic, there is no scientific estimate of the cure rate and case fatality rate of the epidemic. This study proposes a method to estimate the cure rate and case fatality rate of COVID-19. The ratio of cumulative discharges on a given day to the sum of cumulative discharges on a given day and cumulative deaths before j days is used to estimate the cure rate. Moreover, the case fatality ratio can also be estimated. After simulation calculations, j is statistically appropriate when it is 8-10, and it is also clinically appropriate. When j is 9, based on the available data, it is inferred that the cure rate of this epidemic is about 93% and the case fatality rate is about 7%. This method of estimating the cure rate can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatment in different medical schemes and different regions, and has great value and significance for decision-making in the epidemic.

positive: Modelling the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in six high burden countries The new coronavirus disease, officially known as COVID-19, originated in China in 2019 and has since spread around the globe. We presented a modified Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Removed (SLIR) compartmental model of COVID-19 disease transmission with nonlinear incidence during the epidemic period. We provided the model calibration to estimate parameters with day wise corona virus (COVID-19) data i.e. reported cases by worldometer from the period of 15th February to 30th March, 2020 in six high burden countries including Australia, Italy, Spain, USA, UK and Canada. We estimate transmission rates for each countries and found that the highest transmission rate country in Spain, which may be increase the new cases and deaths in Spain than the other countries. Sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most important parameters through the partial rank correlation coefficient method. We found that the transmission rate of COVID-19 had the largest influence on the prevalence. We also provides the prediction of new cases in COVID-19 until May 18, 2020 using the developed model and recommends, control strategies of COVID-19. The information that we generated from this study would be useful to the decision makers of various organizations across the world including the Ministry of Health in Australia, Italy, Spain, USA, UK and Canada to control COVID-19.

positive: Keratoconjunctivitis as the initial medical presentation of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) We present a case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with an initial medical presentation of keratoconjunctivitis, the first such reported case in North America. The patient's primary symptom was a red eye with watery discharge, though she did have mild respiratory symptoms, without fever. She was diagnosed with keratoconjunctivitis; evolving corneal findings were characterized through repeat visits to ophthalmology. A conjunctival swab of the affected eye was positive for the SAR-CoV-2 virus. This case emphasizes the importance of ensuring that first-line health care providers, including ophthalmologists, optometrists, emergency physicians, and family physicians, consider COVID-19 on the differential for any patient with recent travel who presents with acute conjunctivitis. Having a high index of suspicion with this presentation would allow for appropriate precautions to be taken to prevent further spread of COVID-19.

positive: Agriculture, transportation, and the COVID‐19 crisis In this short paper, I assess how COVID‐19‐related disruptions in transportation services, as well as new demands for transportation services, could impact Canadian agricultural supply chains. The brief analysis reveals that agricultural access to bulk ocean freight, rail movement, and trucking has generally improved in the pandemic, bolstered by the reduced demand for these transportation services by other sectors of the economy. The intermodal containerized movement of grains and food products has seen some disruption from the lack of empty containers in North America. The widespread consumer adoption of physical distancing measures has vastly increased the demand for retail food pickup and delivery services to the point where these services are being rationed by long wait times. From a policy perspective, there is an apparent need for (a) continued supply chain monitoring and industry engagement, (b) the proactive development of strategies to deal with absenteeism and other potential threats to the supply chain, and (c) an assessment of the economic and health merits of providing additional public resources to provide greater access to grocery pickup and delivery services.

positive: MERS-CoV- Low risk to Canadians. Middle East respiratory syndrome - Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) -- is a novel coronavirus that has caused a number of community-acquired cases and health care associated outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as well as sporadic cases in other countries, especially in the Middle East. The evidence to date links MERS-CoV cases with exposure to camels, including camel products or to probable or confirmed human cases of MERS-CoV. It typically presents as an acute respiratory illness and is associated with a 35% mortality rate. Based on available information at this time, the current risk to Canadians for acquiring MERS-CoV infections is considered low. However, the International Health Regulations Committee concerning MERS-CoV has cautioned that the upsurge of cases seen this past spring (2014) may be predictive of an increase in cases related to the Hajj - an annual pilgrimage to Mecca in Saudi Arabia that took place in early October 2014. Although the overall risk is low, the Public Health Agency of Canada and its National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in close collaboration with provincial and territorial partners, the Canadian Public Health Laboratory Network (CPHLN) and infection prevention and control experts have developed a number of preparedness guidance documents and protocols to address the risk of an imported case of MERS-CoV in Canada.

positive: Estimation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden and Potential for International Dissemination of Infection From Iran

positive: Prevalence and contribution of respiratory viruses in the community to rates of emergency department visits and hospitalizations with respiratory tract infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma BACKGROUND: The individual and combined contribution of viral prevalence in the community to Emergency Department (ED) visits and hospitalizations with respiratory tract infections (RTIs), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma is unclear. METHODS: A retrospective analysis on daily viral positive tests and daily ED visits and hospitalizations between 01/01/2003 to 31/12/2013 in Ontario, Canada. Viral data was collected from the Centre for Immunization and Respiratory Infectious Diseases (CIRID). The Canadian Institute for Health Information reports daily ED visits and hospitalizations for RTIs, COPD and asthma as a primary diagnosis. RESULTS: There were 4,365,578 ED visits with RTIs of which 321,719 (7.4%) were admitted to hospital; 817,141 ED visits for COPD of which 260,665 (31.9%) were admitted and 649,666 ED visits with asthma of which 68,626 (10.6%) were admitted. The percentage of positive tests to influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus prevalence explained 57.4% of ED visits and 63.8% of hospitalizations for RTI, 41.4% of ED visits and 39.2% of hospitalizations with COPD but only 1.5% of ED visits and 2.7% of hospitalizations for asthma. The further addition of human metapneumovirus, rhinovirus and coronavirus over the final 3 years accounted for 66.7% of ED visits and 74.4% of hospitalizations for RTI, 52.5% of visits and 48.2% of hospitalizations for COPD, and only 13.3% of visits and 10.4% of hospitalizations for asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Community respiratory viral epidemics are major drivers of ED visits and hospitalizations with RTIs and COPD but only a modest contributor to asthma.

positive: Prevalence, Severity and Mortality associated with COPD and Smoking in patients with COVID-19: A Rapid Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an evolving infectious disease that dramatically spread all over the world in the early part of 2020. No studies have yet summarised the potential severity and mortality risks caused by COVID-19 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we update information in smokers. Methods: We systematically searched electronic databases from inception to March 24, 2020. Data were extracted by two independent authors in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses guidelines. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. We synthesised a narrative from eligible studies and conducted a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to calculate pooled prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: In total, 123 abstracts were screened and 61 full-text manuscripts were reviewed. A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria, which included a total of 2473 confirmed COVID-19 patients. All studies were included in the meta-analysis. The crude case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 6.4%. The pooled prevalence rates of COPD patients and smokers in COVID-19 cases were 2% (95% CI, 1%-3%) and 9% (95% CI, 4%-14%) respectively. COPD patients were at a higher risk of more severe disease (risk of severity = 63%, (22/35) compared to patients without COPD 33.4% (409/1224) [calculated RR, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4)]. This was associated with higher mortality (60%). Our results showed that 22% (31/139) of current smokers and 46% (13/28) of ex-smokers had severe complications. The calculated RR showed that current smokers were 1.45 times more likely [95% CI: 1.03-2.04] to have severe complications compared to former and never smokers. Current smokers also had a higher mortality rate of 38.5%. Conclusion: Although COPD prevalence in COVID-19 cases was low in current reports, COVID-19 infection was associated with substantial severity and mortality rates in COPD. Compared to former and never smokers, current smokers were at greater risk of severe complications and higher mortality rate. Effective preventive measures are required to reduce COVID-19 risk in COPD patients and current smokers.

positive: Failing our Most Vulnerable: COVID-19 and Long-Term Care Facilities in Ontario Background: The COVID-19 epidemic has taken a fearsome toll on individuals residing in long-term care facilities (LTC). As of April 10, 2020 half COVID-19 deaths in Canada had occurred in LTC. We sought to better understand trends and risk factors for COVID-19 death in LTC in Ontario. Methods: We analyzed a COVID-19 outbreak database created by the Ontario Ministry of Health, for the period March 29-April 7, 2020. Mortality incidence rate ratios for LTC were calculated with community living Ontarians aged > 69 used as the comparator group. Count-based regression methods were used to model temporal trends and identify associations between infection risk in staff and residents, and subsequent LTC resident death. Results: Confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 were identified in 272/627 LTC by April 7, 2020. The incidence rate ratio for COVID-19 death was 13.1 (9.9-17.3) relative to community living adults over 69. Incidence rate ratio increased over time and was 87.28 (90% CrI 9.98 to 557.08) by April 7, 2020. Lagged infection in staff was a strong predictor of death in residents (e.g., adjusted IRR for death per infected staff member 1.17, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.26 at a 6-day lag). Interpretation: Mortality risk in elders in Ontario is currently concentrated in LTC, and this risk has increased sharply over a short period of time. Early identification of risk requires a focus on testing and provision of personal protective equipment to staff, and restructuring the LTC workforce to prevent movement of COVID-19 between LTC.

positive: Association Between Nursing Home Crowding and COVID-19 Infection and Mortality in Ontario, Canada

positive: Prediction of COVID-19 Active and Total Cases After a Fall and Rise of Cases During the progress of the COVID-19, many countries have observed that their active cases tend to rise again after falling for some time. This may cause some mathematical models like the one discussed in [2] tend to make errors in the future prediction. We discuss a simple method to better the future prediction in such cases. This method is applied on the active and total cases data for the countries USA and Canada. In the case of Canada, the method succeeded in predicting the date when the active cases began to decrease. In the case of USA, a major improvement in prediction was observed when the method was applied: the predicted active and total cases are 1465602 and 2729015 for June 30; whereas the actual values are 1455400 and 2728856. We also give the active and total cases prediction for Canada and the USA for the first week of July 2020.

positive: Protecting Frontline Health Care Workers from COVID-19 with Hydroxychloroquine Pre-exposure Prophylaxis: A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised placebo-controlled multisite trial in Toronto, Canada OBJECTIVES: Primary Objective: To determine if pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with 400mg hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), taken orally once daily reduces microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 among front line health care workers at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Secondary Objectives: To compare the following between study arms: adverse events; symptomatic COVID-19; duration of symptomatic COVID-19; days hospitalized attributed to COVID-19; respiratory failure attributable to COVID-19 requiring i) non-invasive ventilation or ii) intubation/mechanical ventilation; mortality attributed to COVID-19, number of days unable to work attributed to COVID-19, seroconversion (COVID-19 negative to COVID-19 positive over the study period); ability of participant plasma to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 virus in vitro; To describe short-term psychological distress associated with risk of COVID-19 exposure at 1, 60, 120 days of the study. To explore laboratory markers within participants with confirmed COVID-19: including circulating markers of host immune and endothelial activation in participant plasma and their correlation with disease severity and outcome TRIAL DESIGN: The HEROS study is a two-arm, parallel-group, individually randomized (1:1 allocation ratio), placebo controlled, participant and investigator-blinded, multi-site superiority trial of oral HCQ 400 mg taken once daily for 90 days as PrEP to prevent COVID-19 in health care workers at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure. At 90 days, there is an open label extension wherein all participants are offered a one-month course of HCQ 400mg once daily for PrEP of COVID-19. PARTICIPANTS: Frontline HCWs aged 18 years of age or older, at high risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure (including staff of emergency departments, intensive care units, intubation teams, COVID-wards, and staff deployed to Long Term Care facilities) of five academic hospitals in downtown Toronto, Canada. Exclusion criteria include: currently pregnant, planning to become pregnant during the study period, and/or breast feeding; known hypersensitivity/allergy to hydroxychloroquine or to 4-aminoquinoline compounds; current use of hydroxychloroquine; known prolonged QT syndrome and/or baseline resting ECG with QTc>450 ms and/or concomitant medications which simultaneously may prolong the QTc that cannot be temporarily suspended/replaced; known pre-existing retinopathy, G6PD deficiency, porphyria, liver disease including cirrhosis, encephalopathy, hepatitis or alcoholism, diabetes on oral hypoglycemics or insulin, or renal insufficiency/failure; disclosure of self-administered use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine within 12 weeks prior to study; confirmed symptomatic COVID-19 at time of enrollment. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Intervention: hydroxychloroquine, 400mg (2 tablets) orally per day. Comparator: placebo, two tablets visually identical to the intervention, orally per day MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary outcome is microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 (i.e. SARS-CoV-2 infection). This is a composite endpoint which includes positive results from any validated SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic assay including detection of viral RNA, and/or seroconversion. Participants will be assessed at baseline, and then undergo monthly follow-up at day 30, 60, and 90, 120. At each visit, participants will provide an oropharyngeal sample, blood sample, and will undergo electrocardiogram monitoring of the QTc interval. Secondary outcome measures include: adverse events; symptom duration of COVID-19; days of hospitalization attributed to COVID-19; respiratory failure requiring ventilator support attributed to COVID-19; mortality attributed to COVID-19; total days off work attributed to COVID-19; seropositivity (reactive serology by day 120); and short term psychological impact of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 at day 1, 60, 120 days using the K10, a validated measure of non-specific psychological distress. RANDOMISATION: Within each site, participants will be individually randomized to either the intervention arm with HCQ or the placebo arm using a fixed 1:1 allocation ratio using an interactive web-based response system to ensure concealment of allocation. Randomization schedules will be computer-generated and blocked using variable block sizes. BLINDING (MASKING): All participants, research coordinators, technicians, clinicians and investigators will be blinded to the participant allocation group. Numbers to be randomised (sample size) N=988, randomised into two groups of 494 patients. TRIAL STATUS: This summary describes protocol version No. 1.6, May 15, 2020. Recruitment is ongoing - started April 20, 2020 and anticipated end date is July 30, 2021 TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN.com Identifier: ISRCTN14326006, registered April 14, 2020. FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol. The study protocol has been reported in accordance with the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Clinical Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) guidelines (Additional file 2).

positive: Precautions and Procedures for Coronary and Structural Cardiac Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Guidance from Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology The globe is currently in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. This pandemic has placed considerable stress on health care resources and providers. This document from the Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology- Association Canadienne de Cardiologie d'intervention, specifically addresses the implications for the care of patients in the cardiac catheterization laboratory (CCL) in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. The key principles of this document are to maintain essential interventional cardiovascular care while minimizing risks of COVID-19 to patients and staff and maintaining the overall health care resources. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, procedures will be increased or reduced based on the current level of restriction to health care services. Although some consistency across the country is desirable, provincial and regional considerations will influence how these recommendations are implemented. We believe the framework and recommendations in this document will provide crucial guidance for clinicians and policy makers on the management of coronary and structural procedures in the CCL as the COVID-19 pandemic escalates and eventually abates.

positive: The legal extension of the role of pharmacists in light of the COVID-19 global pandemic BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 epidemic has affected every area of life. The greatest challenge has been to adapt the functioning of the health service to prevent the spread of the epidemic and to help infected patients. This has required the involvement of not only doctors and nurses, but also pharmacists. In the face of this pandemic, governments in many countries have granted pharmacists greater authority. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to review the legal extension of the role of pharmacists in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review considers recent changes in European countries, Canada, and the United States. METHODS: A literature review was performed to summarise knowledge about the extension of the role of pharmacists during the pandemic period. Key articles were retrieved mainly from PubMed and Google Scholar, using the terms “COVID‐19”, “2019‐nCoV”, “coronavirus”, and “pandemic” in combination with “pharmacist” as keywords for our search. We included scientific publications from February 1, 2019 to May 15, 2020. RESULTS: Pharmacists have been given numerous opportunities so that they can actively join in the fight against the virus. Some of the novel legal extensions aimed at aiding overloaded healthcare systems are as follows: authorisation to prepare hand and surface disinfectants, eligibility to renew chronic treatment prescriptions, as well as filling pro auctore and pro familia prescriptions by pharmacists, performing COVID-19, influenza, and Group A Streptococcus screening tests, and vaccine administration. Moreover, many countries have facilitated Internet services, such as virtual medical consultations, e-prescriptions, and home drug delivery – to promote social distancing among patients. To mitigate drug shortages, the following strategies have been implemented: alternative sourcing, strength, generic, or therapeutic substitution, and preparing compounded formulations at the pharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: Novel legal extensions have allowed exploitation of the full potential ofpharmacists worldwide, aiding the limited resources of overloaded healthcare systems.

positive: Testing lags and emerging COVID-19 outbreaks in federal penitentiaries in Canada Objectives: To provide the first known comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 outcomes in a federal penitentiary system. We examined the following COVID-19 outcomes within federal penitentiaries and contrasted them with the overall population in the penitentiaries' respective provincial jurisdictions: testing, prevalence, the proportion recovered, and fatality. Methods: Data for prisons were obtained from the Correctional Service of Canada and, for the general population, from COVID-19 Esri Canadian Outbreak Tracking Hub. Data were retrieved between March 30 and April 21, 2020, and are accurate to this date. Penitentiary-, province- and sex-specific frequency statistics for each outcome were calculated. Results: Data on 50 of 51 penitentiaries (98%) were available. Of these, 72% of penitentiaries reported fewer tests per 1000 population than the Canadian general population average (16 tests/1000 population), and 24% of penitentiaries reported zero tests. Penitentiaries with high levels of testing were those that already had elevated COVID-19 prevalence. Five penitentiaries reported an outbreak (at least one case). Hardest hit penitentiaries were those in Quebec and British Columbia, with some prisons reporting COVID-19 prevalence of 30% to 40%. Of these, two were women's prisons. Female prisoners were over-represented among cases (31% of cases overall, despite representing 5% of the total prison population). Conclusion: Increased sentinel or universal testing may be appropriate given the confined nature of prison populations. This, along with rigorous infection prevention control practices and the potential release of prisoners, will be needed to curb current outbreaks and those likely to come.

positive: Towards reduction in bias in epidemic curves due to outcome misclassification through Bayesian analysis of time-series of laboratory test results: Case study of COVID-19 in Alberta, Canada and Philadelphia, USA The aim of our work was to better understand misclassification errors in identification of true cases of COVID-19 and to study the impact of these errors in epidemic curves. We examined publically available time-series data of laboratory tests for SARS-CoV-2 viral infection, the causal agent for COVID-19, to try to explore, using a Bayesian approach, about the sensitivity and specificity of the PCR-based diagnostic test. Data originated from Alberta, Canada (available on 3/28/2020) and city of Philadelphia, USA (available on 3/31/2020). Our analysis revealed that the data were compatible with near-perfect specificity but it was challenging to gain information about sensitivity (prior and posterior largely overlapped). We applied these insights to uncertainty/bias analysis of epidemic curves into jurisdictions under the assumptions of both improving and degrading sensitivity. If the sensitivity improved from 60 to 95%, the observed and adjusted epidemic curves likely fall within the 95% confidence intervals of the observed counts. However, bias in the shape and peak of the epidemic curves can be pronounced, if sensitivity either degrades or remains poor in the 60–70% range. In the extreme scenario, hundreds of undiagnosed cases, even among tested, are possible, potentially leading to further unchecked contagion should these cases not self-isolate. The best way to better understand bias in the epidemic curves of COVID-19 due to errors in testing is to empirically evaluate misclassification of diagnosis in clinical settings and apply this knowledge to adjustment of epidemic curves, a task for which the Bayesian method we presented is well-suited.

positive: Canada’s role in strengthening global health security during the COVID-19 pandemic The world is confronted by the current pandemic of Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19), which is a wake-up call for all nations irrespective of their development status or geographical location. Since the start of the century we have seen five big infectious outbreaks which proved that epidemics are no more regarded as historic and geographically confined threats. The Canadian government underlined that these infectious disease outbreaks are threats to global health security and disrupt societal wellbeing and development. In this context, the Public Health Agency of Canada is proactive and has shown its preparedness for outbreaks of emerging and epidemic-prone diseases, and in dealing with these pathogens. Even before the declaration of pandemic, Canada has proved its global health leadership by ensuring collective action and multisectoral coordination which still remains a serious challenge especially for low and middle- income countries with existing poor health systems. In this article we discuss how Canada is addressing the global challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic through its leadership and practice of global health diplomacy.

positive: Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian medical oncologists and cancer care: Canadian Association of Medical Oncologists survey report Background: The covid-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented professional and personal challenges for the oncology community. Under the auspices of the Canadian Association of Medical Oncologists, we conducted an online national survey to better understand the impact of the pandemic on the medical oncology community in Canada. Methods: An English-language multiple-choice survey, including questions about demographics, covid-19 risk, use of personal protective equipment (ppe), personal challenges, and chemotherapy management was distributed to Canadian medical oncologists. The survey was open from 30 March to 4 April 2020, and attracted 159 responses. Results: More than 70% of medical oncologists expressed moderate-to-extreme concern about personally contracting covid-19 and about family members or patients (or both) contracting covid-19 from them. Despite that high level of concern, considerable variability in the use of ppe in direct cancer care was reported at the time of this survey, with 33% of respondents indicating no routine ppe use at their institutions and 69% indicating uncertainty about access to adequate ppe. Of the respondents, 54% were experiencing feelings of nervousness or anxiety on most days, and 52% were having feelings of depression or hopelessness on at least some days. Concern about aging parents or family and individual wellness represented the top personal challenges identified. The management of cancer patients has been affected, with adoption of telemedicine reported by 82% of respondents, and cessation of clinical trial accrual reported by 54%. The 3 factors deemed most important for treatment decision-making wereâ cancer prognosis and anticipated benefit from treatment,â risk of treatment toxicity during scarce health care access, andâ patient risk of contracting covid-19. Conclusions: This report describes the results of the first national survey assessing the impact of the covid-19 on Canadian medical oncologists and how they deliver systemic anticancer therapies. We hope that these data will provide a framework to address the challenges identified.

positive: Low SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence based on anonymized residual sero-survey before and after first wave measures in British Columbia, Canada, March-May 2020 Background: The province of British Columbia (BC) has been recognized for successful SARS-CoV-2 control, with surveillance data showing amongst the lowest case and death rates in Canada. We estimate sero-prevalence for two periods flanking the start (March) and end (May) of first-wave mitigation measures in BC. Methods: Serial cross-sectional sampling was conducted using anonymized residual sera obtained from an outpatient laboratory network, including children and adults in the Greater Vancouver Area (population ~3 million) where community attack rates were expected to be highest. Screening used two chemiluminescent immuno-assays for spike (S1) and nucleocapsid antibodies. Samples sero-positive on either screening assay were assessed by a third assay targeting the S1 receptor binding domain plus a neutralization assay. Age-standardized sero-prevalence estimates were based on dual-assay positivity. The May sero-prevalence estimate was extrapolated to the source population to assess surveillance under-ascertainment, quantified as the ratio of estimated infections versus reported cases. Results: Serum collection dates spanned March 5-13 and May 15-27, 2020. In March, two of 869 specimens were dual-assay positive, with age-standardized sero-prevalence of 0.28% (95%CI=0.03-0.95). Neither specimen had detectable neutralizing antibodies. In May, four of 885 specimens were dual-assay positive, with age-standardized sero-prevalence of 0.55% (95%CI=0.15-1.37%). All four specimens had detectable neutralizing antibodies. We estimate ~8 times more infections than reported cases. Conclusions: Less than 1% of British Columbians had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 when first-wave mitigation measures were relaxed in May 2020. Our findings indicate successful suppression of community transmission in BC, but also substantial residual susceptibility. Further sero-survey snapshots are planned as the pandemic unfolds.

positive: Data-driven modelling and prediction of COVID-19 infection in India and correlation analysis of the virus transmission with socio-economic factors AIMS: The current study attempts to model the COVID-19 outbreak in India, USA, China, Japan, Italy, Iran, Canada and Germany. The interactions of coronavirus transmission with socio-economic factors in India using the multivariate approach were also investigated. METHODS: Actual cumulative infected population data from 15 February to May 15, 2020 was used for determination of parameters of a nested exponential statistical model, which were further employed for the prediction of infection. Correlation and Principal component analysis provided the relationships of coronavirus spread with socio-economic factors of different states of India using the Rstudio software. RESULTS: Cumulative infection and spreadability rate predicted by the model was in good agreement with the actual observed data for all countries (R(2) = 0.985121 to 0.999635, and MD = 1.2–7.76%) except Iran (R(2) = 0.996316, and MD = 18.38%). Currently, the infection rate in India follows an upward trajectory, while other countries show a downward trend. The model claims that India is likely to witness an increased spreading rate of COVID-19 in June and July. Moreover, the flattening of the cumulative infected population is expected to be obtained in October infecting more than 12 lakhs people. Indian states with higher population were more susceptible to virus infection. CONCLUSIONS: A long-term prediction of cumulative cases, spreadability rate, pandemic peak of COVID-19 was made for India. Prediction provided by the model considering most recent data is useful for making appropriate interventions to deal with the rapidly emerging pandemic.

positive: Estimating the maximum daily number of incident COVID-19 cases manageable by a healthcare system The COVID-19 Acute and Intense Resource Tool (CAIC-RT) is an interactive online tool capable of estimating the maximum daily number of incident COVID- 19 cases that a healthcare system could manage given age-based case distribution and severity.

positive: Show me a man or a woman alone and I'll show you a saint: Changes in the frequency of criminal incidents during the COVID-19 pandemic OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of various crime types (property, violent, and mischief) in Vancouver, Canada. METHODS: Crime data representing residential burglary, commercial burglary, theft of vehicle, theft from vehicle, theft, violence, and mischief are analysed at the city level using interrupted time series techniques. RESULTS: While COVID-19 has not had an impact on all crime types, statistically significant change has been identified in a number of cases. Depending on the crime type, the magnitude and direction of the change in frequency varies. It is argued that (mandated) social restrictions, shifted activity patterns and opportunity structures which are responsible for these findings. CONCLUSIONS: We find support for changes in the frequency of particular crime types during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is important for criminal justice and social service practitioners when operating within an extraordinary event.

positive: Digit analysis for Covid-19 reported data The coronavirus which appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan has spread out worldwide and caused the death of more than 280,000 people (as of May, 11 2020). Since February 2020, doubts were raised about the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths reported by the Chinese government. In this paper, we examine data available from China at the city and provincial levels and we compare them with Canadian provincial data, US state data and French regional data. We consider cumulative and daily numbers of confirmed cases and deaths and examine these numbers through the lens of their first two digits and in particular we measure departures of these first two digits to the Newcomb-Benford distribution, often used to detect frauds. Our finding is that there is no evidence that cumulative and daily numbers of confirmed cases and deaths for all these countries have different first or second digit distributions. We also show that the Newcomb-Benford distribution cannot be rejected for these data.

positive: Towards reduction in bias in epidemic curves due to outcome misclassification through Bayesian analysis of time-series of laboratory test results: case study of COVID-19 in Alberta, Canada and Philadelphia, USA BACKGROUND: Despite widespread use, the accuracy of the diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 infection is poorly understood. The aim of our work was to better quantify misclassification errors in identification of true cases of COVID-19 and to study the impact of these errors in epidemic curves using publicly available surveillance data from Alberta, Canada and Philadelphia, USA. METHODS: We examined time-series data of laboratory tests for SARS-CoV-2 viral infection, the causal agent for COVID-19, to try to explore, using a Bayesian approach, the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that the data were compatible with near-perfect specificity, but it was challenging to gain information about sensitivity. We applied these insights to uncertainty/bias analysis of epidemic curves under the assumptions of both improving and degrading sensitivity. If the sensitivity improved from 60 to 95%, the adjusted epidemic curves likely falls within the 95% confidence intervals of the observed counts. However, bias in the shape and peak of the epidemic curves can be pronounced, if sensitivity either degrades or remains poor in the 60-70% range. In the extreme scenario, hundreds of undiagnosed cases, even among the tested, are possible, potentially leading to further unchecked contagion should these cases not self-isolate. CONCLUSION: The best way to better understand bias in the epidemic curves of COVID-19 due to errors in testing is to empirically evaluate misclassification of diagnosis in clinical settings and apply this knowledge to adjustment of epidemic curves.

positive: For-profit nursing homes and the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks and resident deaths in Ontario, Canada Background: Nursing homes have become the epicentre of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in Canada. Previous research demonstrates that for-profit nursing homes deliver inferior care across a variety of outcome and process measures, raising the question of whether for-profit homes have had worse COVID-19 outcomes than non-profit homes. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all nursing homes in Ontario, Canada from March 29-May 20, 2020 using a COVID-19 outbreak database maintained by the Ontario Ministry of Long-Term Care. We used hierarchical logistic and count-based methods to model the associations between nursing home profit status (for-profit, non-profit or municipal) and nursing home COVID-19 outbreaks, COVID-19 outbreak sizes, and COVID-19 resident deaths. Results: The analysis included all 623 Ontario nursing homes, of which 360 (57.7%) were for-profit, 162 (26.0%) were non-profit, and 101 (16.2%) were municipal homes. There were 190 (30.5%) COVID-19 nursing home outbreaks involving 5218 residents (mean of 27.5 +/- 41.3 residents per home), resulting in 1452 deaths (mean of 7.6 +/- 12.7 residents per home) with an overall case fatality rate of 27.8%. The odds of a COVID-19 outbreak was associated with the incidence of COVID-19 in the health region surrounding a nursing home (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.94; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.23-3.09) and number of beds (aOR, 1.40; 95% CI 1.20-1.63), but not profit status. For-profit status was associated with both the size of a nursing home outbreak (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 1.96; 95% CI 1.26-3.05) and the number of resident deaths (aRR, 1.78; 95% CI 1.03-3.07), compared to non-profit homes. These associations were mediated by a higher prevalence of older nursing home design standards in for-profit homes. Interpretation: For-profit status is associated with the size of a COVID-19 nursing home outbreak and the number of resident deaths, but not the likelihood of outbreaks. Differences between for profit and non-profit homes are largely explained by older design standards, which should be a focus of infection control efforts and future policy.

positive: Potential magnitude of COVID-19-induced healthcare resource depletion in Ontario, Canada Background: The global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues in several jurisdictions, causing significant strain to healthcare systems. The purpose of our study is to predict the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patient outcomes and the healthcare system in Ontario, Canada. Methods: We developed an individual-level simulation to model the flow of COVID-19 patients through the Ontario healthcare system. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectory and healthcare capacity. Outcomes include numbers of patients needing admission to the ward, Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and requiring ventilation; days to resource depletion; and numbers of patients awaiting resources and deaths associated with limited access to resources. Findings: We demonstrate that with effective early public health measures system resources need not be depleted. For scenarios considering late or ineffective implementation of physical distancing, health system resources would be depleted within 14-26 days. Resource depletion was also avoided or delayed with aggressive measures to rapidly increase ICU, ventilator, and acute care hospital capacity. Interpretation: We found that without aggressive physical distancing measures the Ontario healthcare system would have been inadequately equipped to manage the expected number of patients with COVID-19, despite the rapid capacity increase. This overall lack of resources would have led to an increase in mortality. By slowing the spread of the disease via ongoing public health measures and having increased healthcare capacity, Ontario may have avoided catastrophic stresses to its health care system.

positive: Determinants of self-reported symptoms and testing for COVID-19 in Canada using a nationally representative survey In April 2020, a nationally representative sample of 4, 240 Canadians age 18 years and older were polled about COVID experience in March, early in the epidemic. We examined determinants of COVID symptoms, defined as fever plus difficulty breathing/shortness of breath, dry cough so severe that it disrupts sleep, and/or loss of sense of smell; and testing for SARS-CoV-2 by respondents and/or household members. About 8% of Canadians reported that they and/or one or more household members experienced COVID symptoms. Symptoms were more common in younger than older adults, and among visible minorities. Overall, 3% of respondents and/or household members had been tested for SARS-CoV-2. Being tested was associated with having COVID symptoms, being of Indigenous identity, and living in Quebec. Periodic nationally representative surveys, including high-risk older populations, of symptoms, as well as SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, are needed to understand the course of the Canadian epidemic and prepare for the future.

positive: The Coronavirus 2019 pandemic in Canada: the impact of public health interventions on the course of the outbreak in Alberta and other provinces Background: The SARS-CoV-2 disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread across the world with varying impact on health systems and outcomes. We assessed how the type and timing of public- health interventions impacted the course of the outbreak in Alberta and other Canadian provinces. Methods: We used publicly-available data to summarize rates of laboratory data and mortality in relation to measures implemented to contain the outbreak and testing strategy. We estimated the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 before the state of emergency declaration for each province (R0) and at the study end date (Rt). Results: The first cases were confirmed in Ontario (January 25) and British Columbia (January 28). All provinces implemented the same health-policy measures between March 12 and March 30. Alberta had a higher percentage of the population tested (3.8%) and a lower mortality rate (3/100,000) than Ontario (2.6%; 11/100,000) or Quebec (3.1%; 31/100,000). British Columbia tested fewer people (1.7%) and had similar mortality as Alberta. Data on provincial testing strategies were insufficient to inform further analyses. Mortality rates increased with increasing rates of lab- confirmed cases in Ontario and Quebec, but not in Alberta. R0 was similar across all provinces, but varied widely from 2.6 (95% confidence intervals 1.9-3.4) to 6.4 (4.3-8.5), depending on the assumed time interval between onset of symptoms in a primary and a secondary case (serial interval). The outbreak is currently under control in Alberta, British Columbia and Nova Scotia (Rt <1). Interpretation: COVID-19-related health outcomes varied by province despite rapid implementation of similar health-policy interventions across Canada. Insufficient information about provincial testing strategies and a lack of primary data on serial interval are major limitations of existing data on the Canadian COVID-19 outbreak.

positive: Predicting turning point, duration and attack rate of COVID-19 outbreaks in major Western countries Abstract In this paper, we employed a segmented Poisson model to analyze the available daily new cases data of the COVID-19 outbreaks in the six Western countries of the Group of Seven, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA. We incorporated the governments’ interventions (stay-at-home advises/orders, lockdowns, quarantines and social distancing) against COVID-19 into consideration. Our analysis allowed us to make a statistical prediction on the turning point (the time that the daily new cases peak), the duration (the period that the outbreak lasts) and the attack rate (the percentage of the total population that will be infected over the course of the outbreak) for these countries.

positive: Using Machine Learning to Estimate Unobserved COVID-19 Infections in North America. BACKGROUND The detection of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases remains a huge challenge. As of April 22, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to take its toll, with >2.6 million confirmed infections and >183,000 deaths. Dire projections are surfacing almost every day, and policymakers worldwide are using projections for critical decisions. Given this background, we modeled unobserved infections to examine the extent to which we might be grossly underestimating COVID-19 infections in North America. METHODS We developed a machine-learning model to uncover hidden patterns based on reported cases and to predict potential infections. First, our model relied on dimensionality reduction to identify parameters that were key to uncovering hidden patterns. Next, our predictive analysis used an unbiased hierarchical Bayesian estimator approach to infer past infections from current fatalities. RESULTS Our analysis indicates that, when we assumed a 13-day lag time from infection to death, the United States, as of April 22, 2020, likely had at least 1.3 million undetected infections. With a longer lag time-for example, 23 days-there could have been at least 1.7 million undetected infections. Given these assumptions, the number of undetected infections in Canada could have ranged from 60,000 to 80,000. Duarte's elegant unbiased estimator approach suggested that, as of April 22, 2020, the United States had up to >1.6 million undetected infections and Canada had at least 60,000 to 86,000 undetected infections. However, the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering data feed on April 22, 2020, reported only 840,476 and 41,650 confirmed cases for the United States and Canada, respectively. CONCLUSIONS We have identified 2 key findings: (1) as of April 22, 2020, the United States may have had 1.5 to 2.029 times the number of reported infections and Canada may have had 1.44 to 2.06 times the number of reported infections and (2) even if we assume that the fatality and growth rates in the unobservable population (undetected infections) are similar to those in the observable population (confirmed infections), the number of undetected infections may be within ranges similar to those described above. In summary, 2 different approaches indicated similar ranges of undetected infections in North America. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic Level V. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

positive: Towards reduction in bias in epidemic curves due to outcome misclassification through Bayesian analysis of time-series of laboratory test results: case study of COVID-19 in Alberta, Canada and Philadelphia, USA BACKGROUND: Despite widespread use, the accuracy of the diagnostic test for SARS-CoV-2 infection is poorly understood. The aim of our work was to better quantify misclassification errors in identification of true cases of COVID-19 and to study the impact of these errors in epidemic curves using publicly available surveillance data from Alberta, Canada and Philadelphia, USA. METHODS: We examined time-series data of laboratory tests for SARS-CoV-2 viral infection, the causal agent for COVID-19, to try to explore, using a Bayesian approach, the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed that the data were compatible with near-perfect specificity, but it was challenging to gain information about sensitivity. We applied these insights to uncertainty/bias analysis of epidemic curves under the assumptions of both improving and degrading sensitivity. If the sensitivity improved from 60 to 95%, the adjusted epidemic curves likely falls within the 95% confidence intervals of the observed counts. However, bias in the shape and peak of the epidemic curves can be pronounced, if sensitivity either degrades or remains poor in the 60–70% range. In the extreme scenario, hundreds of undiagnosed cases, even among the tested, are possible, potentially leading to further unchecked contagion should these cases not self-isolate. CONCLUSION: The best way to better understand bias in the epidemic curves of COVID-19 due to errors in testing is to empirically evaluate misclassification of diagnosis in clinical settings and apply this knowledge to adjustment of epidemic curves.

positive: Canada needs to rapidly escalate public health interventions for its COVID-19 mitigation strategies BACKGROUND: After the declaration of COVID-19 pandemic on March 11th(,) 2020, local transmission chains starting in different countries including Canada are forcing governments to take decisions on public health interventions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic. METHODS: We conduct data-driven and model-free estimations for the growth rates of the COVID-19 epidemics in Italy and Canada, by fitting an exponential curve to the daily reported cases. We use these estimates to predict epidemic trends in Canada under different scenarios of public health interventions. RESULTS: In Italy, the initial growth rate (0.22) has reduced to 0.1 two weeks after the lockdown of the country on March 8th(,) 2020. This corresponds to an increase of the doubling time from about 3.15 to almost 7 days. In comparison, the growth rate in Canada has increased from 0.13 between March 1st and 13th, to 0.25 between March 13th to 22nd. This current growth rate corresponds to a doubling time of 2.7 days, and therefore, unless further public health interventions are escalated in Canada, we project 15,000 cases by March 31st. However, the case number may be reduced to 4000 if escalated public health interventions could instantly reduce the growth rate to 0.1, the same level achieved in Italy. INTERPRETATION: Prompt and farsighted interventions are critical to counteract the very rapid initial growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada. Mitigation plans must take into account the delayed effect of interventions by up to 2-weeks and the short doubling time of 3–4 days.

positive: Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic? Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have shown a wide range of variations. In our study, we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calibrations using the confirmed-case data is the main reason for such wide variations. Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection, we show that an SIR model performs much better than an SEIR model in representing the information contained in the confirmed-case data. This indicates that predictions using more complex models may not be more reliable compared to using a simpler model. We present our model predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan after the lockdown and quarantine of the city on January 23, 2020. We also report our results of modeling the impacts of the strict quarantine measures undertaken in the city after February 7 on the time course of the epidemic, and modeling the potential of a second outbreak after the return-to-work in the city.

positive: How long will social distancing take to work? Experts weigh in on Canada's COVID-19 response.

positive: First imported case of 2019 novel coronavirus in Canada, presenting as mild pneumonia (vol 395, pg 734, 2020)

positive: Hasty Reduction of COVID-19 Lockdown Measures Leads to the Second Wave of Infection The outbreak of COVID-19 has an undeniable global impact, both socially and economically. March 11th, 2020, COVID-19 was declared as a pandemic worldwide. Many governments, worldwide, have imposed strict lockdown measures to minimize the spread of COVID-19. However, these measures cannot last forever; therefore, many countries are already considering relaxing the lockdown measures. This study, quantitatively, investigated the impact of this relaxation in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Canada. A modified version of the SIR model is used to model the reduction in lockdown based on the already available data. The results showed an inevitable second wave of COVID-19 infection following loosening the current measures. The study tries to reveal the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates. Additionally, the predicted number of infected cases for different reopening dates is reported.

positive: Coronavirus infections reported by ProMED, February 2000–January 2020 Abstract Introduction Sources describing the global burden of emerging diseases accurately are still limited. We reviewed coronavirus infections reported by ProMED and assessed the reliability of the data retrieved compared to published reports. We evaluated the effectiveness of ProMED as a source of epidemiological data on coronavirus. Methods Using the keyword “coronavirus” in the ProMED search engine, we reviewed all the information from the reports and collected data using a structured form, including year, country, gender, occupation, the number of infected individuals, and the number of fatal cases. Results We identified 109 entries reported between February 29, 2000 and January 22, 2020. A total of 966 cases were reported, with death reported in 188 cases, suggesting an overall case fatality rate (CFR) of 19.5%. Of 70 cases for which the gender was reported, 47 (67.1%) were male. Most of the cases were reported from China, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, with reports from other countries, including imported cases in Europe and North America. Conclusions Internet-based reporting systems such as ProMED are useful to gather information and synthesize knowledge on emerging infections. Although certain areas need to be improved, ProMED provided useful information about coronaviruses especially during outbreaks.

positive: A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public The number of COVID-19 cases is continuously increasing in different countries (as of March 2020) including the Philippines. It is estimated that the basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is around 1.5 to 4. The basic reproductive number characterizes the average number of persons that a primary case can directly infect in a population full of susceptible individuals. However, there can be superspreaders that can infect more than this estimated basic reproductive number. In this study, we formulate a conceptual mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 between the frontliners and the general public. We assume that the general public has a reproductive number between 1.5 to 4, and frontliners (e.g. healthcare workers, customer service and retail personnel, food service crews, and transport or delivery workers) have a higher reproduction number. Our simulations show that both the frontliners and the general public should be protected or resilient against the disease. Protecting only the frontliners will not result in flattening the epidemic curve. Protecting only the general public may flatten the epidemic curve but the infection risk faced by the frontliners is still high, which may eventually affect their work. Our simple model does not consider all factors involved in COVID-19 transmission in a community, but the insights from our model results remind us of the importance of community effort in controlling the transmission of the disease. All in all, the take-home message is that everyone in the community, whether a frontliner or not, should be protected or should implement preventive measures to avoid being infected.

positive: Impact of self-imposed prevention measures and short-term government intervention on mitigating and delaying a COVID-19 epidemic Background: With new cases of COVID-19 surging around the world, many countries have to prepare for moving beyond the containment phase. Prediction of the effectiveness of non-case-based interventions for mitigating, delaying or preventing the epidemic is urgent, especially for countries affected by the ongoing seasonal influenza activity. Methods: We developed a transmission model to evaluate the impact of self-imposed prevention measures (handwashing, mask-wearing, and social distancing) due to the spread of COVID-19 awareness and of short-term government-imposed social distancing on the peak number of diagnoses, attack rate and time until the peak number of diagnoses. Findings: For fast awareness spread in the population, self-imposed measures can significantly reduce the attack rate, diminish and postpone the peak number of diagnoses. A large epidemic can be prevented if the efficacy of these measures exceeds 50%. For slow awareness spread, self-imposed measures reduce the peak number of diagnoses and attack rate but do not affect the timing of the peak. Early implementation of short-term government interventions can only delay the peak (by at most 7 months for a 3-month intervention). Interpretation: Handwashing, mask-wearing and social distancing as a reaction to information dissemination about COVID-19 can be effective strategies to mitigate and delay the epidemic. We stress the importance of rapidly spreading awareness on the use of these self-imposed prevention measures in the population. Early-initiated short-term government-imposed social distancing can buy time for healthcare systems to prepare for an increasing COVID-19 burden. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, mathematical model, prevention measures, mitigation, epidemic control, disease awareness, social distancing, handwashing, mask-wearing

positive: Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in children and youth in Canada, January 15-April 27, 2020. Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 among children and youth in Canada will help to inform public health measures in settings where children gather. As of April 27, 2020, provinces and territories provided the Public Health Agency of Canada with detailed information on 24,079 cases, of which 3.9% (n=938) were younger than 20 years of age. The detection rate per 100,000 population was lower in this age group (11.9 per 100,000), compared with those aged 20-59 years (72.4 per 100,000) and 60 and older (113.6 per 100,000). The median age among those younger than 20 years of age was 13 years, and cases were distributed equally across male and female genders. Among provinces and territories with more than 100 cases, 1.6% to 9.8% of cases were younger than 20 years of age. Cases in this age group were more likely to be asymptomatic: 10.7% compared with 2.4% in those aged 20-59 years and 4.1% in those aged 60 and older. Children and youth experienced severe outcomes less often, but 2.2% (n=15/672) of cases within this age group were severe enough to require hospitalization. Based on available exposure information, 11.3% (n=59/520) of cases aged younger than 20 years had no known contact with a case. Canadian findings align with those of other countries.

positive: Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect? Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.

positive: Do Pre-existing Anxiety-Related and Mood Disorders Differentially Impact COVID-19 Stress Responses and Coping? BACKGROUND: People with pre-existing mental health conditions may be more susceptible to stressors associated with COVID-19 relative to the general population; however, no studies have assessed whether susceptibility differs between classes of mental health disorders. We assessed COVID-19-related stress, self-isolation stressors, and coping in those with a primary anxiety-related disorder diagnosis, a primary mood disorder diagnosis, and no mental health disorder. METHODS: Adults from a population-representative sample from the United States and Canada who reported current (past year) anxiety-related (n = 700) or mood disorders (n = 368) were compared to a random sample of respondents who did not report a current mental health diagnosis (n = 500) on COVID-19-related stress and self-isolation stress and coping. RESULTS: The anxiety-related disorders group exhibited higher COVID Stress Scales total scores and higher scores on its fears about danger and contamination, socioeconomic consequences, xenophobia, and traumatic stress symptoms scales than the other groups. The mood disorders group had higher scores on the traumatic stress symptoms and socioeconomic consequences scales than those with no current mental disorder. Those with current anxiety-related or mood disorders were more likely to voluntarily self-isolate and were more likely to report greater self-isolation stressors and distress than those without a mental health disorder. Yet, there were no major differences in perceived effectiveness of coping strategies across groups. CONCLUSION: People with anxiety-related or mood disorders were more negatively affected by COVID-19 compared to those with no mental health disorder; however, adding to psychological burden, those with anxiety-related disorders reported greater fears about danger and contamination, socioeconomic consequences, xenophobia, and traumatic stress symptoms than the other groups. These findings suggest the need for tailoring COVID-19-related mental health interventions to meet the specific needs of people with pre-existing mental health conditions.

positive: Exploratory Analysis of COVID-19 Related Tweets in North America to Inform Public Health Institutes Social media is a rich source where we can learn about people's reactions to social issues. As COVID-19 has significantly impacted on people's lives, it is essential to capture how people react to public health interventions and understand their concerns. In this paper, we aim to investigate people's reactions and concerns about COVID-19 in North America, especially focusing on Canada. We analyze COVID-19 related tweets using topic modeling and aspect-based sentiment analysis, and interpret the results with public health experts. We compare timeline of topics discussed with timing of implementation of public health interventions for COVID-19. We also examine people's sentiment about COVID-19 related issues. We discuss how the results can be helpful for public health agencies when designing a policy for new interventions. Our work shows how Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques could be applied to public health questions with domain expert involvement.

positive: Serological prevalence of canine respiratory coronavirus Abstract Canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV) has recently been detected in dogs; it is a group 2 coronavirus showing similarity to bovine coronavirus (BCoV) but is distinct from canine enteric coronavirus (CECoV). CRCoV may play an important role in canine infectious respiratory disease (CIRD) either by predisposing to further and potentially more serious viral and bacterial infections or possibly as a primary pathogen. The prevalence of serum antibodies to CRCoV, in a population of dogs in the south east of England, has been shown previously to be 30.1% on the first day of entry to a rehoming kennel [Erles, K., Toomey, C., Brooks, H.W., Brownlie, J., 2003. Detection of a group 2 coronavirus in dogs with canine infectious respiratory disease. Virology 310, 216–223]. The purpose of this study was to establish the prevalence of CRCoV in the general canine population within as well as outside the UK. An ELISA, used to test for the presence of antibodies to CRCoV in canine serum samples, identified seropositive dogs in UK, USA, Canada, Republic of Ireland and Greece. The development of an ELISA based on CRCoV antigen and immunofluorescence assay are described here. 54.7% (547/1000) of North American and 36.0% (297/824) of United Kingdom dogs were seropositive for CRCoV. The age and geographical distribution of seropositive dogs was also assessed. The cross-reactivity demonstrated between CRCoV antibodies from different countries and a UK viral isolate suggests immunological similarity. The overall prevalence of this virus in both North America and the UK suggests that CRCoV has international significance and that further epidemiological studies are required.

positive: CAN-NPI: A Curated Open Dataset of Canadian Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Response to the Global COVID-19 Pandemic Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the primary tool used by governments and organizations to mitigate the spread of the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Natural experiments are currently being conducted on the impact of these interventions, but most of these occur at the subnational level - data not available in early global datasets. We describe the rapid development of the first comprehensive, labelled dataset of 1640 NPIs implemented at federal, provincial/territorial and municipal levels in Canada to guide COVID-19 research. For each intervention, we provide: a) information on timing to aid in longitudinal evaluation, b) location to allow for robust spatial analyses, and c) classification based on intervention type and target population, including classification aligned with a previously developed measure of government response stringency. This initial dataset release (v1.0) spans January 1st, and March 31st, 2020; bi-weekly data updates to continue for the duration of the pandemic. This novel dataset enables robust, inter-jurisdictional comparisons of pandemic response, can serve as a model for other jurisdictions and can be linked with other information about case counts, transmission dynamics, health care utilization, mobility data and economic indicators to derive important insights regarding NPI impact.

positive: The Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic on U.S. and Canadian PICUs There are limited reports of the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic focused on U.S. and Canadian PICUs. This hypothesis-generating report aims to identify the United States and Canadian trends of coronavirus disease 2019 in PICUs. DESIGN AND SETTING: To better understand how the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic was affecting U.S. and Canadian PICUs, an open voluntary daily data collection process of Canadian and U.S. PICUs was initiated by Virtual Pediatric Systems, LLC (Los Angeles, CA; http://www.myvps.org) in mid-March 2020. Information was made available online to all PICUs wishing to participate. A secondary data collection was performed to follow-up on patients discharged from those PICUs reporting coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: To date, over 180 PICUs have responded detailing 530 PICU admissions requiring over 3,467 days of PICU care with 30 deaths. The preponderance of cases was in the eastern regions. Twenty-four percent of the patients admitted to the PICUs were over 18 years old. Fourteen percent of admissions were under 2 years old. Nearly 60% of children had comorbidities at admission with the average length of stay increasing by age and by severity of comorbidity. Advanced respiratory support was necessary during 67% of the current days of care, with 69% being conventional mechanical ventilation. CONCLUSIONS: PICUs have been significantly impacted by the pandemic. They have provided care not only for children but also adults. Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 have a high frequency of comorbidities, require longer stays, more ventilatory support than usual PICU admissions. These data suggest several avenues for further exploration.

positive: Disruption to surgical training during Covid-19 in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australasia: a rapid review of impact and mitigation efforts The global Covid-19 pandemic has the potential to lead to significant training disruptions affecting surgical residents across all specialties. There has been lively social media discussion about the impact of cancelled training activities under the twitter hashtag #NoTrainingTodayNoSurgeonsTomorrow. We present a rapid scoping review synthesising the current evidence of pandemic-related impact on surgical training in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. We describe and compare strategies that have been put in place to mitigate disruption, and reflect on how the challenges of the pandemic may present the opportunity to improve on how we select, assess and train surgeons in the future.

negative: Crystallization and preliminary crystallographic analysis of the heptad‐repeat complex of SARS coronavirus spike protein The aetiological agent of an emergent outbreak of atypical pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), is a positive‐stranded RNA virus (SARS‐CoV) belonging to the Coronaviridae family with a genome that differs substantially from those of other known coronaviruses. Highly conserved heptad‐repeat (HR1 and HR2) regions in class I viral fusion proteins, including spike protein from SARS coronavirus, interact with each other to form a six‐helix bundle, which is called a fusion core. The crystal structure of the fusion core is expected to greatly facilitate drug design. Crystals of the fusion core of SARS‐CoV spike protein have been grown at 291 K using PEG 4000 as precipitant. The diffraction pattern of the crystal extends to 2.8 Å resolution at 100 K in‐house. The crystals have unit‐cell parameters a = 121.2, b = 66.3, c = 70.0 Å, α = γ = 90, β = 107.4° and belong to space group C2. Assuming the presence of six molecules per asymmetric unit, the solvent content is estimated to be about 28%.

negative: Projected increases in suicide in Canada as a consequence of COVID-19 Macroeconomic indicators, notably unemployment, are significant moderators of suicide. We projected the number of excess suicides in Canada as a consequence of the impact of COVID-19 on unemployment. Annual suicide mortality (2000-2018) and unemployment (2000-2019) data were derived from Statistics Canada. Time-trend regression models were used to evaluate and predict the number of excess suicides in 2020 and 2021 for two possible projection scenarios following the COVID-19 pandemic: 1) an increase in unemployment of 1.6% in 2020, 1.2% in 2021, or 2) an increase in unemployment of 10.7% in 2020, 8.9% in 2021. A percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 1.0% increase in suicide between 2000 and 2018. In the first scenario, the rise in unemployment rates resulted in a projected total of 418 excess suicides in 2020-2021 (suicide rate per 100,000: 11.6 in 2020). In the second scenario, the projected suicide rates per 100,000 increased to 14.0 in 2020 and 13.6 in 2021, resulting in 2114 excess suicides in 2020-2021. These results indicate that suicide prevention in the context of COVID-19-related unemployment is a critical priority. Furthermore, timely access to mental healthcare, financial provisions and social/labour support programs, as well as optimal treatment for mental disorders is urgently needed.

negative: Full spectrum of COVID-19 severity still being depicted

negative: A novel human coronavirus: Middle East respiratory syndrome human coronavirus In 2012, a novel coronavirus, initially named as human coronavirus EMC (HCoV-EMC) but recently renamed as Middle East respiratory syndrome human coronavirus (MERS-CoV), was identified in patients who suffered severe acute respiratory infection and subsequent renal failure that resulted in death. Ongoing epidemiological investigations together with retrospective studies have found 61 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with this novel coronavirus, including 34 deaths to date. This novel coronavirus is culturable and two complete genome sequences are now available. Furthermore, molecular detection and indirect immunofluorescence assay have been developed. The present paper summarises the limited recent advances of this novel human coronavirus, including its discovery, genomic characterisation and detection.

negative: Angiotensin II for the Treatment of COVID-19–Related Vasodilatory Shock

negative: A Machine Learning Model Reveals Older Age and Delayed Hospitalization as Predictors of Mortality in Patients with COVID-19 Objective: The recent pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is increasingly causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and significant mortality. We aim here to identify the risk factors associated with mortality of coronavirus infected persons using a supervised machine learning approach. Research Design and Methods: Clinical data of 1085 cases of COVID-19 from 13th January to 28th February, 2020 was obtained from Kaggle, an online community of Data scientists. 430 cases were selected for the final analysis. Random Forest classification algorithm was implemented on the dataset to identify the important predictors and their effects on mortality. Results: The Area under the ROC curve obtained during model validation on the test dataset was 0.97. Age was the most important variable in predicting mortality followed by the time gap between symptom onset and hospitalization. Conclusions: Patients aged beyond 62 years are at higher risk of fatality whereas hospitalization within 2 days of the onset of symptoms could reduce mortality in COVID-19 patients.

negative: Evidence and ethics in public health: the experience of SARS in Canada. Making decisions on the basis of evidence is a central tenet of all health-care disciplines, including public health. However, it is not entirely clear what it means to base decisions on evidence; debates on evidence-based approaches often lack a clear understanding of the nature of evidence and obscure the normative underpinnings of evidence. Public health decision making requires an acceptance of limitations such as the availability of funding for research to provide complete evidence for any given decision, the ethical constraints on the creation of certain types of evidence and the ongoing dilemma between the need to take action and the need to gather more information. Using the example of the SARS outbreak in Canada, the inter-relationships between evidence and ethics are explored. I outline a set of critical questions for the global public health community to discuss regarding the nature of the relationship between evidence-based public health practice and ethics.

negative: [Diagnostic steps and estimation of disease prognosis in COVID-19-infected patients]. In December 2019, a new coronavirus outbreak hit his head in Wuhan, China. The identified pathogen is a new coronavirus named "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2," or SARS-CoV-2, and the respiratory syndrome it elicits was named "coronavirus disease 2019," or COVID-19. The World Health Organization (WHO) classified the epidemic as a pandemic in March 2020. We reviewed the currently available international literature on the COVID-19 epidemic. In this paper, we summarize the relevant information for the diagnosis and prognosis of the new coronavirus. Details of the anamnestic factors and initial test results required to raise a clinical suspicion, the method of microbiological sampling, the basic information on the molecular diagnostic test - the 'gold-standard' real-time 'reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) - in particular the diagnostic current public health regulations for testing. We also place emphasis on the parameters of high-risk patients and how to identify them. The COVID-19 pandemic may also have significant epidemiological and health consequences in Hungary. In addition to epidemiological measures to slow down the epidemic, the timely identification and adequate hospital care of already infected individuals is also a key issue in terms of mortality. The chances of critically ill patients can only be improved with high-quality, careful intensive care, and to be able to provide the best, it is useful to use the experience of medical colleagues already working in endemic countries. Orv Hetil. 2020; 160 (17): 667-671.

negative: The 2019-nCoV epidemic control strategies and future challenges of building healthy smart cities

negative: A new factor influencing pathogen detection by molecular assay in children with both mild and severe hand, foot, and mouth disease Abstract This study aimed to find novel information concerning pathogen detection and some probable coinfection factors in hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD). In this study, 1104 clinically diagnosed HFMD patients were included. Enterovirus 71 (EV71), coxsackievirus A16 (CA16), and 14 different respiratory pathogens were examined from nasopharyngeal swabs using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR). To evaluate the immune activation in HFMD patients, 8 cytokines and IgM antibodies to EV71 and CA16 from mild and severe patients were detected. Our results indicated that the severity of HFMD may affect the pathogen detection. The lower positive rates of enterovirus and respiratory viruses in severe HFMD cases by RT-PCR were probably related to stronger immune response. Therefore, immunological tests such as ELISA are essential supplements to PCR or RT-PCR in order to increase pathogen diagnosis in HFMD, especially in severe cases.

negative: Just the Facts: Protecting frontline clinicians during the COVID-19 pandemic There is no patient emergency more important than protecting health care workers during a pandemic.

negative: Risk factors for severity and mortality in adult COVID-19 inpatients in Wuhan Abstract Background In December 2019, COVID-19 outbreak occurred in Wuhan. Data on the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with severe COVID-19 are limited. Objective The severity on admission, complications, treatment, and outcomes of COVID-19 patients were evaluated. Methods Patients with COVID-19 admitted to Tongji Hospital from January 26, 2020 to February 5, 2020 were retrospectively enrolled and followed-up until March 3, 2020. Potential risk factors for severe COVID-19 were analyzed by a multivariable binary logistic model. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for survival analysis in severe patients. Results We identified 269 (49.1%) of 548 patients as severe cases on admission. Elder age, underlying hypertension, high cytokine levels (IL-2R, IL-6, IL-10, and TNF-a), and high LDH level were significantly associated with severe COVID-19 on admission. The prevalence of asthma in COVID-19 patients was 0.9%, markedly lower than that in the adult population of Wuhan. The estimated mortality was 1.1% in nonsevere patients and 32.5% in severe cases during the average 32 days of follow-up period. Survival analysis revealed that male, elder age, leukocytosis, high LDH level, cardiac injury, hyperglycemia, and high-dose corticosteroid use were associated with death in patients with severe COVID-19. Conclusions Patients with elder age, hypertension, and high LDH level need careful observation and early intervention to prevent the potential development of severe COVID-19. Severe male patients with heart injury, hyperglycemia, and high-dose corticosteroid use may have high risk of death.

negative: Infection Prevention and Control: A Biodefense Measure Infection prevention and control (IPC) is the foundation for preventing the spread of infectious diseases, regardless of source, during medical treatment. Biological attacks will inevitably involve the medical management of sick individuals, which will not only tax the healthcare system, but also highlight the vital importance of infection control. Reducing the capacity for disease transmission will be pivotal in not only the early stages of an outbreak or biological attack, but also during times of crisis. Infection control programs also conduct disease surveillance and reporting to public health departments, which is crucial during an attack or outbreak. Infection control failures, like those in the 2013–2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak and continued Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreaks, act as amplifiers for pathogen transmission. In the event of a biological attack, the strength and stamina of a hospital’s infection control program will be critical to early recognition, isolation, treatment, and reducing the spread of infection.

negative: Investigation of three clusters of COVID-19 in Singapore: implications for surveillance and response measures BACKGROUND: Three clusters of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) linked to a tour group from China, a company conference, and a church were identified in Singapore in February, 2020. METHODS: We gathered epidemiological and clinical data from individuals with confirmed COVID-19, via interviews and inpatient medical records, and we did field investigations to assess interactions and possible modes of transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Open source reports were obtained for overseas cases. We reported the median (IQR) incubation period of SARS-CoV-2. FINDINGS: As of Feb 15, 2020, 36 cases of COVID-19 were linked epidemiologically to the first three clusters of circumscribed local transmission in Singapore. 425 close contacts were quarantined. Direct or prolonged close contact was reported among affected individuals, although indirect transmission (eg, via fomites and shared food) could not be excluded. The median incubation period of SARS-CoV-2 was 4 days (IQR 3–6). The serial interval between transmission pairs ranged between 3 days and 8 days. INTERPRETATION: SARS-CoV-2 is transmissible in community settings, and local clusters of COVID-19 are expected in countries with high travel volume from China before the lockdown of Wuhan and institution of travel restrictions. Enhanced surveillance and contact tracing is essential to minimise the risk of widespread transmission in the community. FUNDING: None.

negative: Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes of Hospitalized and Critically Ill Children and Adolescents with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) at a Tertiary Care Medical Center in New York City OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical profiles and risk factors for critical illness in hospitalized children and adolescents with COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN: Children 1 month to 21 years with COVID-19 from a single tertiary care children’s hospital between March 15-April 13, 2020 were included. Demographic and clinical data were collected. RESULTS: 67 children tested positive for COVID-19; 21 (31.3%) were managed as outpatients. Of 46 admitted patients, 33 (72%) were admitted to the general pediatric medical unit and 13 (28%) to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Obesity and asthma were highly prevalent but not significantly associated with PICU admission (p=0.99). Admission to the PICU was significantly associated with higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and pro-B type natriuretic peptide levels and platelet counts (p<0.05 for all). Patients in the PICU were more likely to require high-flow nasal cannula (p=0.0001) and were more likely to have received Remdesivir through compassionate release (p<0.05). Severe sepsis and septic shock syndromes were observed in 7 (53.8%) PICU patients. Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was observed in 10 (77%) PICU patients, 6 of whom (46.2%) required invasive mechanical ventilation for a median of 9 days. Of the 13 patients in the PICU, 8 (61.5%) were discharged home, and 4 (30.7%) patients remain hospitalized on ventilatory support at day 14. One patient died after withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy because of metastatic cancer. CONCLUSIONS: We describe a higher than previously recognized rate of severe disease requiring PICU admission in pediatric patients admitted to the hospital with COVID-19.

negative: Research Progress of Coronavirus Based on Bibliometric Analysis Background: COVID-19 has become one of the most serious global epidemics in the 21st Century. This study aims to explore the distribution of research capabilities of countries, institutions, and researchers, and the hotspots and frontiers of coronavirus research in the past two decades. In it, references for funding support of urgent projects and international cooperation among research institutions are provided. Method: the Web of Science core collection database was used to retrieve the documents related to coronavirus published from 2003 to 2020. Citespace.5.6.R2, VOSviewer1.6.12, and Excel 2016 were used for bibliometric analysis. Results: 11,036 documents were retrieved, of which China and the United States have contributed the most coronavirus studies, Hong Kong University being the top contributor. Regarding journals, the Journal of Virology has contributed the most, while in terms of researchers, Yuen Kwok Yung has made the most contributions. The proportion of documents published by international cooperation has been rising for decades. Vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 are under development, and clinical trials of several drugs are ongoing. Conclusions: international cooperation is an important way to accelerate research progress and achieve success. Developing corresponding vaccines and drugs are the current hotspots and research directions.

negative: An emerging cyberinfrastructure for biodefense pathogen and pathogen–host data The NIAID-funded Biodefense Proteomics Resource Center (RC) provides storage, dissemination, visualization and analysis capabilities for the experimental data deposited by seven Proteomics Research Centers (PRCs). The data and its publication is to support researchers working to discover candidates for the next generation of vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics against NIAID's Category A, B and C priority pathogens. The data includes transcriptional profiles, protein profiles, protein structural data and host–pathogen protein interactions, in the context of the pathogen life cycle in vivo and in vitro. The database has stored and supported host or pathogen data derived from Bacillus, Brucella, Cryptosporidium, Salmonella, SARS, Toxoplasma, Vibrio and Yersinia, human tissue libraries, and mouse macrophages. These publicly available data cover diverse data types such as mass spectrometry, yeast two-hybrid (Y2H), gene expression profiles, X-ray and NMR determined protein structures and protein expression clones. The growing database covers over 23 000 unique genes/proteins from different experiments and organisms. All of the genes/proteins are annotated and integrated across experiments using UniProt Knowledgebase (UniProtKB) accession numbers. The web-interface for the database enables searching, querying and downloading at the level of experiment, group and individual gene(s)/protein(s) via UniProtKB accession numbers or protein function keywords. The system is accessible at http://www.proteomicsresource.org/.

negative: Suspected myocardial injury in patients with COVID-19: Evidence from front-line clinical observation in Wuhan, China Abstract Background A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan has caused an outbreak and become a major public health issue in China and great concern from international community. Myocarditis and myocardial injury were suspected and may even be considered as one of the leading causes for death of COVID-19 patients. Therefore, we focused on the condition of the heart, and sought to provide firsthand evidence for whether myocarditis and myocardial injury were caused by COVID-19. Methods We enrolled patients with confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 retrospectively and collected heart-related clinical data, mainly including cardiac imaging findings, laboratory results and clinical outcomes. Serial tests of cardiac markers were traced for the analysis of potential myocardial injury/myocarditis. Results 112 COVID-19 patients were enrolled in our study. There was evidence of myocardial injury in COVID-19 patients and 14 (12.5%) patients had presented abnormalities similar to myocarditis. Most of patients had normal levels of troponin at admission, that in 42 (37.5%) patients increased during hospitalization, especially in those that died. Troponin levels were significantly increased in the week preceding the death. 15 (13.4%) patients have presented signs of pulmonary hypertension. Typical signs of myocarditis were absent on echocardiography and electrocardiogram. Conclusions The clinical evidence in our study suggested that myocardial injury is more likely related to systemic consequences rather than direct damage by the 2019 novel coronavirus. The elevation in cardiac markers was probably due to secondary and systemic consequences and can be considered as the warning sign for recent adverse clinical outcomes of the patients.

negative: Evidence from internet search data shows information-seeking responses to news of local COVID-19 cases The COVID-19 outbreak is a global pandemic with community circulation in many countries, including the United States, with confirmed cases in all states. The course of this pandemic will be shaped by how governments enact timely policies and disseminate information and by how the public reacts to policies and information. Here, we examine information-seeking responses to the first COVID-19 case public announcement in a state. Using an event study framework for all US states, we show that such news increases collective attention to the crisis right away. However, the elevated level of attention is short-lived, even though the initial announcements are followed by increasingly strong policy measures. Specifically, searches for “coronavirus” increased by about 36% (95% CI: 27 to 44%) on the day immediately after the first case announcement but decreased back to the baseline level in less than a week or two. We find that people respond to the first report of COVID-19 in their state by immediately seeking information about COVID-19, as measured by searches for coronavirus, coronavirus symptoms, and hand sanitizer. On the other hand, searches for information regarding community-level policies (e.g., quarantine, school closures, testing) or personal health strategies (e.g., masks, grocery delivery, over-the-counter medications) do not appear to be immediately triggered by first reports. These results are representative of the study period being relatively early in the epidemic, and more-elaborate policy responses were not yet part of the public discourse. Further analysis should track evolving patterns of responses to subsequent flows of public information.

negative: Passengers' destinations from China: low risk of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) transmission into Africa and South America Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV [SARS-COV-2]) was detected in humans during the last week of December 2019 at Wuhan city in China, and caused 24 554 cases in 27 countries and territories as of 5 February 2020. The objective of this study was to estimate the risk of transmission of 2019-nCoV through human passenger air flight from four major cities of China (Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou) to the passengers' destination countries. We extracted the weekly simulated passengers' end destination data for the period of 1-31 January 2020 from FLIRT, an online air travel dataset that uses information from 800 airlines to show the direct flight and passengers' end destination. We estimated a risk index of 2019-nCoV transmission based on the number of travellers to destination countries, weighted by the number of confirmed cases of the departed city reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). We ranked each country based on the risk index in four quantiles (4th quantile being the highest risk and 1st quantile being the lowest risk). During the period, 388 287 passengers were destined for 1297 airports in 168 countries or territories across the world. The risk index of 2019-nCoV among the countries had a very high correlation with the WHO-reported confirmed cases (0.97). According to our risk score classification, of the countries that reported at least one Coronavirus-infected pneumonia (COVID-19) case as of 5 February 2020, 24 countries were in the 4th quantile of the risk index, two in the 3rd quantile, one in the 2nd quantile and none in the 1st quantile. Outside China, countries with a higher risk of 2019-nCoV transmission are Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Canada and the USA, all of which reported at least one case. In pan-Europe, UK, France, Russia, Germany and Italy; in North America, USA and Canada; in Oceania, Australia had high risk, all of them reported at least one case. In Africa and South America, the risk of transmission is very low with Ethiopia, South Africa, Egypt, Mauritius and Brazil showing a similar risk of transmission compared to the risk of any of the countries where at least one case is detected. The risk of transmission on 31 January 2020 was very high in neighbouring Asian countries, followed by Europe (UK, France, Russia and Germany), Oceania (Australia) and North America (USA and Canada). Increased public health response including early case recognition, isolation of identified case, contract tracing and targeted airport screening, public awareness and vigilance of health workers will help mitigate the force of further spread to naïve countries.

negative: Genetic diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Abstract COVID-19 is a viral respiratory illness caused by a new coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. The World Health Organization declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a global public health emergency. We performed genetic analyses of eighty-six complete or near-complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and revealed many mutations and deletions on coding and non-coding regions. These observations provided evidence of the genetic diversity and rapid evolution of this novel coronavirus.

negative: Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China BACKGROUND: A recent cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel betacoronavirus, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). We report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment and clinical outcomes of these patients. METHODS: All patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were admitted to a designated hospital in Wuhan. We prospectively collected and analysed data on patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection by real-time RT-PCR and next-generation sequencing. Data were obtained with standardised data collection forms shared by WHO and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium from electronic medical records. Researchers also directly communicated with patients or their families to ascertain epidemiological and symptom data. Outcomes were also compared between patients who had been admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and those who had not. FINDINGS: By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 (66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα. INTERPRETATION: The 2019-nCoV infection caused clusters of severe respiratory illness similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and was associated with ICU admission and high mortality. Major gaps in our knowledge of the origin, epidemiology, duration of human transmission, and clinical spectrum of disease need fulfilment by future studies. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission.

negative: EXCESS MORTALITY FROM COVID-19. WEEKLY EXCESS DEATH RATES BY AGE AND SEX FOR SWEDEN. Objectives: Mortality from Covid-19 is monitored in detail both within as well as between countries with different strategies against the virus. However, death counts and relative risks based on crude numbers can be misleading. Instead, age specific death rates should be used for comparability. Given the difficulty of ascertainment of Covid-19 specific deaths, excess all-cause mortality is currently more appropriate for comparisons. By estimating age- and sex-specific death rates we aim to get more accurate estimates of the excess mortality attributed to Covid-19, as well as the difference between men and women in Sweden. Design: We make use of Swedish register data about total weekly deaths, total population at risk, and estimate age- and sex-specific weekly death rates for 2020 and the 5 previous years. The data is provided by Statistics Sweden. Results: From the first week of April and onwards, the death rates at all ages above 60 are higher than those in previous years in Sweden. Persons above age 80 are dis-proportionally more affected, and men suffer higher levels of excess mortality than women at all ages with 75% higher death rates for males and 50% higher for females. Current excess mortality corresponds to a decline in remaining life expectancy of 3 years for men and 2 years for women. Conclusion: The Covid-19 pandemic has so far had a clear and consistent effect on total mortality in Sweden, with male death rates being comparably more affected. What consequences the pandemic will eventually have on mortality and life expectancy will depend on the progression of the pandemic, the extent that some of the deaths would have occurred in the absence of the pandemic, only somewhat later, the consequences for other health conditions, as well as the health care sector at large.

negative: An Evaluation of Neurosurgical Resident Education and Sentiment During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A North American Survey ABSTRACT Background The COVID-19 pandemic has had a tremendous impact on the healthcare system. Due to restrictions in elective surgery and social distancing guidelines, the training curriculum for neurosurgical trainees is rapidly evolving. This evolution may have significant long-term effects on the training of neurosurgery residents. Objective To assess the impact of COVID-19 on neurosurgical training programs and residents. Methods A survey consisting of thirty-one questions assessing changes to resident clinical and educational workload and their sentiment on how these changes may affect their careers was distributed electronically to neurosurgery residents in the United States and Canada. Results The survey respondents were spread over 29 states and Canada and were relatively evenly spread across all levels of residency. Nearly 82% reported that the inpatient and outpatient volumes were either greatly (44.0%) or moderately (37.8%) reduced. Greater than 91% reported that their work responsibilities or access to the hospital had been reduced with a significant reduction in work hours and a significant increase in resident didactics (p <.001). Senior residents expressed concern about their educational experience as well as their future career prospects as a result of the pandemic. Conclusion Universally, residents have experienced reduced work hours and reduction in their operative case volumes. Programs have adapted by increasing didactic time and using electronic platforms. It is quite possible that this remarkable time period will prompt a critical re-appraisal of the pre-COVID-19 adequacy of educational content in our training programs, and that enhanced educational efforts driven by this pandemic may be lasting.

negative: The Impact of COVID-19 on Radiation Oncology Clinics and Patients With Cancer in the United States

negative: COVID-19 and sex workers: human rights, the struggle for safety and minimum income

negative: COVID-19 Severity Scoring Tool for low resourced settings

negative: ICON (Ivermectin in COvid Nineteen) study: Use of Ivermectin is Associated with Lower Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID19 Abstract Importance: No therapy to date has been shown to improve survival for patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Ivermectin has been shown to inhibit the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro but clinical response has not been previously evaluated. Objective: To determine whether Ivermectin is associated with lower mortality rate in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Design and Setting: Retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients hospitalized at four Broward Health hospitals in South Florida with confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Enrollment dates were March 15, 2020 through May 11, 2020. Follow up data for all outcomes was May 19, 2020. Participants: 280 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (mean age 59.6 years [standard deviation 17.9], 45.4% female), of whom 173 were treated with ivermectin and 107 were usual care were reviewed. 27 identified patients were not reviewed due to multiple admissions, lack of confirmed COVID results during hospitalization, age less than 18, pregnancy, or incarceration. Exposure: Patients were categorized into two treatment groups based on whether they received at least one dose of ivermectin at any time during the hospitalization. Treatment decisions were at the discretion of the treating physicians. Severe pulmonary involvement at study entry was characterized as need for either FiO2 [≥]50%, or noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included subgroup mortality in patients with severe pulmonary involvement and extubation rates for patients requiring invasive ventilation. Results: Univariate analysis showed lower mortality in the ivermectin group (25.2% versus 15.0%, OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29-0.96, P=.03). Mortality was also lower among 75 patients with severe pulmonary disease treated with ivermectin (38.8% vs 80.7%, OR 0.15, CI 0.05-0.47, P=.001), but there was no significant difference in successful extubation rates (36.1% vs 15.4%, OR 3.11 (0.88-11.00), p=.07). After adjustment for between-group differences and mortality risks, the mortality difference remained significant for the entire cohort (OR 0.27, CI 0.09-0.85, p=.03; HR 0.37, CI 0.19-0.71, p=.03). Conclusions and Relevance: Ivermectin was associated with lower mortality during treatment of COVID-19, especially in patients who required higher inspired oxygen or ventilatory support. These findings require randomized controlled trials for confirmation.

negative: Correlation of coagulation parameters with clinical outcomes in Coronavirus-19 affected minorities in United States: Observational cohort Importance: COVID-19 has caused a worldwide illness and New York has become the epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States. Currently Bronx has the highest prevalence per capita in New York. Objective: To investigate the coagulopathic presentation of COVID and its natural course and to investigate whether hematologic and coagulation parameters can be used to assess illness severity and death. Design: Retrospective case study of positive COVID inpatients between 3/20/2020-3/31/2020. Setting: Montefiore Health System main hospital, Moses, a large tertiary care center in the Bronx. Participants: Adult inpatients with positive COVID tests hospitalized at MHS. Exposure (for observational studies): Datasets of participants were queried for physiological, demographic (age, sex, socioeconomic status and self-reported race and/or ethnicity) and laboratory data. Main Outcome and Measures: Relationship and predictive value of measured parameters to mortality and illness severity. Results: Of the 217 in this case review, 70 died during hospitalization while 147 were discharged home. Only the admission PT and first D-Dimer could very significantly differentiate those who were discharged alive and those who died. Logistic regression analysis shows increased odds ratio for mortality by first D-Dimer within 48 hrs. of admission. The optimal cut-point for the initial D-Dimer to predict mortality was found to be 1.65 mcg/mL. Conclusions: We describe here a comprehensive assessment of hematologic and coagulation parameters in COVID and examine the relationship of these to mortality. We demonstrate that both initial and maximum D-Dimer values are biomarkers that can be used for survival assessments.

negative: Time-series analysis in imatinib-resistant chronic myeloid leukemia K562-cells under different drug treatments Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is characterized by the accumulation of active BCR-ABL protein. Imatinib is the first-line treatment of CML; however, many patients are resistant to this drug. In this study, we aimed to compare the differences in expression patterns and functions of time-series genes in imatinib-resistant CML cells under different drug treatments. GSE24946 was downloaded from the GEO database, which included 17 samples of K562-r cells with (n=12) or without drug administration (n=5). Three drug treatment groups were considered for this study: arsenic trioxide (ATO), AMN107, and ATO+AMN107. Each group had one sample at each time point (3, 12, 24, and 48 h). Time-series genes with a ratio of standard deviation/average (coefficient of variation) >0.15 were screened, and their expression patterns were revealed based on Short Time-series Expression Miner (STEM). Then, the functional enrichment analysis of time-series genes in each group was performed using DAVID, and the genes enriched in the top ten functional categories were extracted to detect their expression patterns. Different time-series genes were identified in the three groups, and most of them were enriched in the ribosome and oxidative phosphorylation pathways. Time-series genes in the three treatment groups had different expression patterns and functions. Time-series genes in the ATO group (e.g. CCNA2 and DAB2) were significantly associated with cell adhesion, those in the AMN107 group were related to cellular carbohydrate metabolic process, while those in the ATO+AMN107 group (e.g. AP2M1) were significantly related to cell proliferation and antigen processing. In imatinib-resistant CML cells, ATO could influence genes related to cell adhesion, AMN107 might affect genes involved in cellular carbohydrate metabolism, and the combination therapy might regulate genes involved in cell proliferation.

negative: Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China IMPORTANCE: Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources. OBJECTIVES: To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020. EXPOSURES: Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Number of critical and severe patient–days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period. RESULTS: In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19 425 patients (24.5 per 10 000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10 000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10 000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10 000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities.

negative: Public Health Lessons from Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome a Decade Later The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2002–2003 exacted considerable human and economic costs from countries involved. It also exposed major weaknesses in several of these countries in coping with an outbreak of a newly emerged infectious disease. In the 10 years since the outbreak, in addition to the increase in knowledge of the biology and epidemiology of this disease, a major lesson learned is the value of having a national public health institute that is prepared to control disease outbreaks and designed to coordinate a national response and assist localities in their responses.

negative: Unmet healthcare needs among migrants without medical insurance in Montreal, Canada While access to healthcare for permanent residents in Canada is well known, this is not the case for migrants without healthcare coverage. This is the first large-scale study that examines the unmet healthcare needs of migrants without healthcare coverage in Montreal. 806 participants were recruited: 436 in the community and 370 at the NGO clinic. Proportions of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs were similar (68.4% vs. 69.8%). The main reason invoked for these unmet needs was lacking money (80.6%). Situations of not working or studying, not having had enough food in the past 12 months, not having a medical prescription to get medication and having had a workplace injury were all significantly associated with higher odds of having unmet healthcare needs. Unmet healthcare needs were more frequent among migrants without healthcare coverage than among recent immigrants or the citizens with health healthcare coverage (69%, 26%, 16%). Canada must take measures to enable these individuals to have access to healthcare according to their needs in order to reduce the risk of worsening their health status, something that may have an impact on the healthcare system and population health. The Government of Quebec announced that all individuals without any healthcare coverage will have access to COVID-19 related health care. We hope that this right, the application of which is not yet obvious, can continue after the pandemic for all health care.

negative: Basic Income Advocacy in Canada: Multiple Streams, Experiments and the Road Ahead Basic income has a long history in Canada, going back to the Great Depression. Its recognition has risen and fallen cyclically, several experiments have been mounted, and some programs, such as the Canada Child Benefit and the Old Age Security demogrant, have been identified as partial basic income schemes. However, a universal basic income for all members of the Canadian political community has never been visibly close to implementation. Against this background, this chapter examines basic income political advocacy from three vantage points. First, the multiple streams framework is used to assess linkages of basic income in the problem stream, its position in the policy stream and forces at play in the political stream. Next, the fate of experiments is described, along with approaches for increasing the likelihood that experiments will result in full-scale policy implementation if outcomes are sufficiently promising. Third, some advocacy strategies for the future are recommended.

negative: Impact of viral epidemic outbreaks on mental health of healthcare workers: a rapid systematic review Objectives: To examine the impact of providing healthcare during or after health emergencies caused by viral epidemic outbreaks on healthcare workers (HCWs) mental health, and to assess the available evidence base regarding interventions to reduce such impact. Design: Systematic rapid review and meta-analysis. Data sources: MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO, searched up to 23 March 2020. Method: We selected observational and experimental studies examining the impact on mental health of epidemic outbreaks on HCWs. Titles and abstracts were screened by one reviewer, and full texts were evaluated by two reviewers independently. We extracted study characteristics, symptoms, prevalence of mental health problems, risk factors, mental health interventions, and its impact. We assessed risk of bias for each individual study. We conducted a narrative and tabulated synthesis of the results. We pooled data using random-effects meta-analyses to estimate the prevalence of specific mental health problems. We followed the GRADE approach to assess the certainty in the evidence. Results: We included 61 studies (56 examining impact on mental health and five about interventions to reduce such impact). Most were conducted in Asia (59%), examined the impact of the SARS epidemic (69%), and took place in the hospital setting (79%). The pooled prevalence was higher for anxiety (45%, 95% CI 21 to 69%; 6 studies, 3,373 participants), followed by depression (38%, 95% CI 15 to 60%; 7 studies, 3,636 participants), acute stress disorder (31%, 95% CI 0 to 82%, 3 studies , 2,587 participants), burnout (29%, 95% CI 25 to 32%; 3 studies; 1,168 participants) and post-traumatic stress disorder (19%, 95% CI 11 to 26%, 10 studies, 3,121 participants). Based on 37 studies, we identified a broad number of risk factors for these conditions, including sociodemographic: younger age and female gender; social factors: lack of social support, social rejection or isolation, stigmatization; and occupational: working in a high risk environment (frontline staff), specific occupational roles (e.g., nurse), and lower levels of specialized training, preparedness and job experience. Two out of five interventions identified were educational aimed to prevent mental health problems by increasing HCWs resilience. These interventions showed positive effects in confidence in support and training, pandemic self-efficacy and interpersonal problems solving (very low certainty). One multifaceted intervention (based on training and organisational changes) targeted at hospital nurses during the SARS epidemic produced statistically significant improvements in anxiety, depression, and sleep quality (very low certainty). The impact of the two remaining interventions (multifaceted and based on psychotherapy provision) was unreported. Conclusion: The prevalence of anxiety, depression, acute and post-traumatic stress disorder, and burnout, was high both during and after the outbreaks. These problems not only have a long-lasting effect on the mental health of HCWs, but also hinder the urgent response to the current COVID-19 pandemic, by jeopardising attention and decision-making. Governments and healthcare authorities should take urgent actions to protect the mental health of HCWs. In light of the limited evidence regarding the impact of interventions to tackle mental health problems in HCWs, the risk factors identified in this study represent important targets for future interventions.

negative: Mining the Characteristics of COVID-19 Patients in China: Analysis of Social Media Posts BACKGROUND: In December 2019, pneumonia cases of unknown origin were reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Identified as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the number of cases grew rapidly by human-to-human transmission in Wuhan. Social media, especially Sina Weibo (a major Chinese microblogging social media site), has become an important platform for the public to obtain information and seek help. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the characteristics of suspected or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients who asked for help on Sina Weibo. METHODS: We conducted data mining on Sina Weibo and extracted the data of 485 patients who presented with clinical symptoms and imaging descriptions of suspected or laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19. In total, 9878 posts seeking help on Sina Weibo from February 3 to 20, 2020 were analyzed. We used a descriptive research methodology to describe the distribution and other epidemiological characteristics of patients with suspected or laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection. The distance between patients' home and the nearest designated hospital was calculated using the geographic information system ArcGIS. RESULTS: All patients included in this study who sought help on Sina Weibo lived in Wuhan, with a median age of 63.0 years (IQR 55.0-71.0). Fever (408/485, 84.12%) was the most common symptom. Ground-glass opacity (237/314, 75.48%) was the most common pattern on chest computed tomography; 39.67% (167/421) of families had suspected and/or laboratory-confirmed family members; 36.58% (154/421) of families had 1 or 2 suspected and/or laboratory-confirmed members; and 70.52% (232/329) of patients needed to rely on their relatives for help. The median time from illness onset to real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing was 8 days (IQR 5.0-10.0), and the median time from illness onset to online help was 10 days (IQR 6.0-12.0). Of 481 patients, 32.22% (n=155) lived more than 3 kilometers away from the nearest designated hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that patients seeking help on Sina Weibo lived in Wuhan and most were elderly. Most patients had fever symptoms, and ground-glass opacities were noted in chest computed tomography. The onset of the disease was characterized by family clustering and most families lived far from the designated hospital. Therefore, we recommend the following: (1) the most stringent centralized medical observation measures should be taken to avoid transmission in family clusters; and (2) social media can help these patients get early attention during Wuhan's lockdown. These findings can help the government and the health department identify high-risk patients and accelerate emergency responses following public demands for help.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; previously provisionally named 2019 novel coronavirus or 2019-nCoV) disease (COVID-19) in China at the end of 2019 has caused a large global outbreak and is a major public health issue. As of 11 February 2020, data from the World Health Organization (WHO) have shown that more than 43 000 confirmed cases have been identified in 28 countries/regions, with >99% of cases being detected in China. On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as the sixth public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to two bat-derived severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronaviruses, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21. It is spread by human-to-human transmission via droplets or direct contact, and infection has been estimated to have mean incubation period of 6.4 days and a basic reproduction number of 2.24–3.58. Among patients with pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus pneumonia or Wuhan pneumonia), fever was the most common symptom, followed by cough. Bilateral lung involvement with ground-glass opacity was the most common finding from computed tomography images of the chest. The one case of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in the USA is responding well to remdesivir, which is now undergoing a clinical trial in China. Currently, controlling infection to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is the primary intervention being used. However, public health authorities should keep monitoring the situation closely, as the more we can learn about this novel virus and its associated outbreak, the better we can respond.

negative: Clinical presentations and outcome of severe community-acquired pneumonia Abstract Background Severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) represents a frequent and potentially life-threatening condition. About 10% of all hospitalized patients with CAP require admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and the mortality of these patients reaches 20–50%. Objective To evaluate the clinical presentation, bacteriological profile and outcome of severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). Patients and methods 54 patients presented by symptoms and sign of severe community acquired pneumonia who were admitted to respiratory care unit of Alhussein, Al-Azhar University Hospital from August 2015 to March 2016 were subjected to full clinical examination, chest X ray, complete blood picture, sputum and blood culture, PCR for suspected cases of Influenza H1N1 and MERS-COV, treatment, follow up, data collections and statistical analysis. Results The present study included 54 patients 26 males and 28 females with SCAP who were admitted to respiratory care unit of Alhussein, Al-Azhar University Hospital. The most common comorbidities were diabetes mellitus and hypertension. The most common presentations were fever, cough, dyspnea and hypoxemia. Two patients developed renal failure and 4 patients developed septic shock. The most common isolated organism was Streptococcus pneumoniae, Influenza H1N1, and Staphylococcus aureus. Mortality was 24% and it was common in patients with comorbidity than in patients without comorbidities. Conclusion SCAP occurs more frequently in those with comorbidities. The most frequent isolated causative organism of SCAP is S. pneumoniae, Influenza H1N1 and S. aureus. SCAP is associated with significant mortality, early recognition and prompt treatment may improve outcome.

negative: Models of infection and exacerbations in COPD Despite optimal use of currently available therapy for stable COPD, acute exacerbations are common events that constitute a major health burden. The development of highly sensitive diagnostic tools highlighted the role of viral infections in inducing COPD exacerbations, with rhinoviruses being the most frequently identified virus type. So far, little is known about the mechanisms of virus-induced exacerbations. The recent development of the first human rhinovirus-induced COPD exacerbation model represents an invaluable tool towards increasing our knowledge of immunological and inflammatory mechanisms of COPD exacerbation. The model will give us the opportunity to highlight key inflammatory mediators representing possible therapeutic targets for the development of novel drugs able to treat and prevent acute episodes in COPD.

negative: U.S. county-level characteristics to inform equitable COVID-19 response BACKGROUND: The spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) across the United States confirms that not all Americans are equally at risk of infection, severe disease, or mortality. A range of intersecting biological, demographic, and socioeconomic factors are likely to determine an individual’s susceptibility to COVID-19. These factors vary significantly across counties in the United States, and often reflect the structural inequities in our society. Recognizing this vast inter-county variation in risks will be critical to mounting an adequate response strategy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using publicly available county-specific data we identified key biological, demographic, and socioeconomic factors influencing susceptibility to COVID-19, guided by international experiences and consideration of epidemiological parameters of importance. We created bivariate county-level maps to summarize examples of key relationships across these categories, grouping age and poverty; comorbidities and lack of health insurance; proximity, density and bed capacity; and race and ethnicity, and premature death. We have also made available an interactive online tool that allows public health officials to query risk factors most relevant to their local context. Our data demonstrate significant inter-county variation in key epidemiological risk factors, with a clustering of counties in certain states, which will result in an increased demand on their public health system. While the East and West coast cities are particularly vulnerable owing to their densities (and travel routes), a large number of counties in the Southeastern states have a high proportion of at-risk populations, with high levels of poverty, comorbidities, and premature death at baseline, and low levels of health insurance coverage. The list of variables we have examined is by no means comprehensive, and several of them are interrelated and magnify underlying vulnerabilities. The online tool allows readers to explore additional combinations of risk factors, set categorical thresholds for each covariate, and filter counties above different population thresholds. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 responses and decision making in the United States remain decentralized. Both the federal and state governments will benefit from recognizing high intra-state, inter-county variation in population risks and response capacity. Many of the factors that are likely to exacerbate the burden of COVID-19 and the demand on healthcare systems are the compounded result of long-standing structural inequalities in US society. Strategies to protect those in the most vulnerable counties will require urgent measures to better support communities’ attempts at social distancing and to accelerate cooperation across jurisdictions to supply personnel and equipment to counties that will experience high demand.

negative: Screening of COVID-19 in children admitted to the hospital for acute problems: preliminary data. BACKGROUND The new Coronavirus identified in Whuan at the end of 2019 (SARS-CoV-2) belongs to the Beta Coronavirus genus and is responsible for the new Coronavirus 2019 pandemia (COVID-19). Infected children may be asymptomatic or present fever, dry cough, fatigue or gastrointestinal symptoms. The CDC recommends that clinicians should decide to test patients based on the presence of signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19. MATERIAL AND METHODS 42 children (the majority < 5 years of age) were referred, to our Pediatric Department, as possible cases of COVID-19 infection. Blood analysis, chest X-ray, and naso-oropharyngeal swab specimens for viral identification of COVID-19 were requested. RESULTS None of the screened children resulted positive for COVID-19 infection. At first presentation, the most frequent signs and symptoms were: fever (71.4%), fatigue (35.7%) and cough (30.9%). An high C-reactive protein value and abnormalities of chest X-ray (bronchial wall thickening) were detected in 26.2% and 19% of patients, respectively. Almost half of patients (45.2%) required hospitalization in our Pediatric Unit and one patient in Intensive Care Unit. CONCLUSIONS Testing people who meet the COVID-19 suspected case definition criteria is essential for clinical management and outbreak control. Children of all ages can get COVID-19, although they appear to be affected less frequently than adults, as reported in our preliminary survey. Further studies are needed to confirm our observations.

negative: Neurological manifestations and implications of COVID-19 pandemic The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China and rapidly spread worldwide, with a vast majority of confirmed cases presenting with respiratory symptoms. Potential neurological manifestations and their pathophysiological mechanisms have not been thoroughly established. In this narrative review, we sought to present the neurological manifestations associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Case reports, case series, editorials, reviews, case-control and cohort studies were evaluated, and relevant information was abstracted. Various reports of neurological manifestations of previous coronavirus epidemics provide a roadmap regarding potential neurological complications of COVID-19, due to many shared characteristics between these viruses and SARS-CoV-2. Studies from the current pandemic are accumulating and report COVID-19 patients presenting with dizziness, headache, myalgias, hypogeusia and hyposmia, but also with more serious manifestations including polyneuropathy, myositis, cerebrovascular diseases, encephalitis and encephalopathy. However, discrimination between causal relationship and incidental comorbidity is often difficult. Severe COVID-19 shares common risk factors with cerebrovascular diseases, and it is currently unclear whether the infection per se represents an independent stroke risk factor. Regardless of any direct or indirect neurological manifestations, the COVID-19 pandemic has a huge impact on the management of neurological patients, whether infected or not. In particular, the majority of stroke services worldwide have been negatively influenced in terms of care delivery and fear to access healthcare services. The effect on healthcare quality in the field of other neurological diseases is additionally evaluated.

negative: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Background: A range of case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for COVID 19 have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. Methods: We used individual-case data from mainland China and cases detected outside mainland China to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the CFR by relating the aggregate distribution of cases by dates of onset to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for the demography of the population, and age and location-based under ascertainment. We additionally estimated the CFR from individual linelist data on 1,334 cases identified outside mainland China. We used data on the PCR prevalence in international residents repatriated from China at the end of January 2020 to obtain age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR). Using data on age stratified severity in a subset of 3,665 cases from China, we estimated the proportion of infections that will likely require hospitalisation. Findings: We estimate the mean duration from onset-of-symptoms to death to be 17.8 days (95% credible interval, crI 16.9,19.2 days) and from onset-of-symptoms to hospital discharge to be 22.6 days (95% crI 21.1,24.4 days). We estimate a crude CFR of 3.67% (95% crI 3.56%,3.80%) in cases from mainland China. Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment of milder cases in Wuhan relative to the rest of China, we obtain a best estimate of the CFR in China of 1.38% (95% crI 1.23%,1.53%) with substantially higher values in older ages. Our estimate of the CFR from international cases stratified by age (under 60 or 60 and above) are consistent with these estimates from China. We obtain an overall IFR estimate for China of 0.66% (0.39%,1.33%), again with an increasing profile with age. Interpretation: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and demonstrate a strong age-gradient in risk.

negative: Pediatric Investigators Collaborative Network on Infections in Canada Study of Respiratory Syncytial Virus–associated Deaths in Pediatric Patients in Canada, 2003–2013 BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of pneumonia and bronchiolitis in children. Mortality rates in previously healthy children hospitalized with RSV are <0.5%, but up to 37% in patients with underlying medical conditions. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with deaths among children hospitalized with RSV infection in Canadian pediatric centers. METHODS: A retrospective case series of children aged ≤18 years with RSV-associated deaths at centers affiliated with the Pediatric Investigators Collaborative Network on Infections in Canada from 2003–2013, inclusive, was performed. Cases were identified using RSV-specific International Classification of Diseases codes to capture deaths where a diagnosis of RSV infection was present. RESULTS: Eleven centers reported 79 RSV-associated deaths. RSV was regarded as primarily responsible for death in 32 cases (40.5%). Median age at death was 11 months (range, <1 month to 16 years). Thirty-nine patients (49.4%) were male. Fourteen patients (17.7%) had no known risk factors for severe RSV infection. Healthcare-associated RSV infections (HAIs) accounted for 29 deaths (36.7%), with RSV judged to be the primary cause of death in 9 of these cases. CONCLUSIONS: RSV-associated deaths were predominantly associated with chronic medical conditions and immunocompromised states among infants; however, 1 in 5 deaths occurred among patients with no known risk factors for severe RSV. Mortality associated with HAI accounted for over a third of cases. These findings highlight patient groups that should be targeted for RSV prevention strategies such as infection control practices, immunoprophylaxis, and future vaccination programs.

negative: Analysis of the scientific literature in the first 30 Days of the novel coronavirus outbreak. Introduction: Recent events highlight how emerging and re-emerging pathogens are becoming global challenges for public health. In December 2019, a novel coronavirus has emerged. This has suddenly turned out into global health concern. Objectives: Aim of this research is to focus on the bibliometric aspects in order to measure what is published in the first 30-days of a global epidemic outbreak Methods: We searched PubMed database in order to find all relevant studies in the first 30-days from the first publication. Results: From the initial 442 identified articles, 234 were read in-extenso. The majority of papers come from China, UK and USA. 63.7% of the papers were commentaries, editorials and reported data and only 17.5% of the sources used data directly collected on the field. Topics mainly addressed were epidemiology, preparedness and generic discussion. NNR showed a reduction for both the objectives assessed from January to February. Conclusions: Diagnosis and effective preventive and therapeutic measures were the fields in which more research is still needed. The vast majority of scientific literature in the first 30-days of an epidemic outbreak is based on reported data rather than primary data. Nevertheless, the scientific statements and public health decisions rely on these data.

negative: The effect of ambient temperature on worldwide COVID-19 cases and deaths - an epidemiological study Background The role of ambient temperature in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths due to COVID-19 remains contentious. Coronaviruses such as the 2003 SARS-CoV showed an increased risk of transmission during cooler days. We sought to analyse the effects of ambient temperature on SARS-COV-2 transmission and deaths related to the virus. Methods The world population of COVID-19 cases and attributable deaths from the 23rd January 2020 to 11th April 2020 were analysed. Temperature 5 days before cases and 23 days prior to deaths (to account for the time lag of incubation period and time from symptoms to death) was compared to the average temperature experienced by the world population. Results The total number of cases during this period was 1,605,788 and total number of deaths was 103,471. The median temperature at the time of COVID-19 infection was 9.12C (10-90th percentile 4.29-17.97C) whilst the median temperature of the world population for the same period was 9.61C warmer at 18.73C (10-90th percentile 4.09-28.49C) with a notional p-value = 5.1 x10-11. The median temperature at the time of a COVID-19 death was 9.72C (10-90th percentile 5.39-14.11C) whilst the median temperature of the world population was 7.55C warmer at 17.27C (10-90th percentile 2.57C-27.76C) with a notional p-value = 1.1 x10-10. 80% of all COVID-19 related cases and deaths occurred between 4.29C and 17.97C. Conclusion A definitive association between infection rate and death from COVID-19 and ambient temperature exists, with the highest risk occurring around 9C. Governments should maintain vigilance with containment strategies when the ambient temperatures correspond to this highest risk.

negative: Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian Radiology Residency Training Programs PURPOSE: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has swept the globe, with a domino effect on medical education and training. In this study, we surveyed Canadian radiology residents to understand the impact of the pandemic on their residency training, strategies utilized by the residency programs in mitigating those impacts, and factors important to residents in the selection of educational resources on COVID-19. METHODS: A 10-item questionnaire was distributed to 460 resident members of the Canadian Association of Radiologists. The survey was open for 2 weeks, with a reminder sent at half-way mark. RESULTS: We received 96 responses (response rate: 20.9%). The 4 highest affected domains of training were daytime case volumes (92.4%), daytime schedules (87.4%), internal and external assessments (86.5%), and vacation/travel (83.3%). Virtual teaching rounds (91.7%), change in schedules to allow staying home (78.1%), and virtual/phone readouts (72.9%) were the most utilized strategies by the Canadian radiology residency programs. Overall stress of exposure to the disease was moderate to low (86.5%). A minority of the residents were redeployed (6.2%), although most (68.8%) were on standby for redeployment. Residents preferred published society guidelines (92.3%), review papers (79.3%), video lectures (79.3%), and web tools (76.9%) for learning about COVID-19 imaging manifestations. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on various domains of the Canadian radiology residency programs, which has been mitigated by several strategies employed by the training programs.

negative: Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessment is critical for guiding an effective public health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained in the West African Ebola epidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaks to set out a checklist of data needed to: (1) quantify severity and transmissibility; (2) characterize heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants; and (3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions. We differentiate data needs into individual-level data (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data (e.g. identifying where/how cases may have been infected) and population-level data (e.g. size/demographics of the population(s) affected and when/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposure data was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However, gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied when and where) posed challenges to the assessment of (3). Here we highlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressing these issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’.

negative: Multiple Contact Dates and SARS Incubation Periods Many severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) patients have multiple possible incubation periods due to multiple contact dates. Multiple contact dates cannot be used in standard statistical analytic techniques, however. I present a simple spreadsheet-based method that uses multiple contact dates to calculate the possible incubation periods of SARS.

negative: The coronavirus 2019-nCoV epidemic: Is hindsight 20/20?

negative: [SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). Emergent transmissible disease]. Of the reemergent transmissible diseases of the past decades, SARS is probably not the last to express the alterations occurring in the relationships of the human being with its global ecosystem. The life of contemporary man is characterized, among others, by a huge thirst for traveling, for varied reasons, consequence of the globalization process. SARS virus, mutant belonging to Coronaviridae, occurred in one of the most densely populated areas of the world. There are two main moments marking the reemergence and evolution of SARS: firstly, the onset of the epidemic in China in November 2002 followed by the worldwide spread of the epidemiological process, and secondly the discovery of SARS virus as a mutant of coronaviruses in March-April 2003 in USA, Canada, and Hong Kong. The possibilities of general and special prevention, and particularly vaccine prevention are likely to bring this disease under control.

negative: COVID-19 and what pediatric rheumatologists should know: a review from a highly affected country On March 11th, 2020 the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. The infection, transmitted by 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCov), was first discovered in December 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, and then rapidly spread worldwide. Italy was early and severely involved, with a critical spread of the infection and a very high number of victims. Person-to-person spread mainly occurs via respiratory droplets and contact. The median incubation period is 5 days. The spectrum of respiratory symptoms may range from mild to severe, strictly depending on the age of the patient and the underlying comorbidities. In children COVID-19 related disease is less frequent and less aggressive. In Italy 1% of positive cases are under 18 years of age, and no deaths have been recorded before 29 years of age. For patients affected by rheumatic disease, despite the concerns related to the imbalance of their immune response and the effect of immunosuppressive treatments, there are still few data to understand the real consequences of this infection. Major scientific societies have issued recommendations to help rheumatologists in caring their patients. Interestingly, some of the drugs mostly used by rheumatologists appear to be promising in critical COVID-19 infected patients, where the hyperinflammation and cytokine storm seem to drive to the multiorgan failure. Pediatric rheumatologists are expected to play a supporting role in this new front of COVID-19 pandemic, both as general pediatricians treating infected children, and as rheumatologists taking care of their rheumatic patients, as well as offering their experience in the possible alternative use of immunomodulatory drugs.

negative: A Canadian framework for managing prostate cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: Recommendations from the Canadian Urologic Oncology Group and the Canadian Urological Association.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS): chest radiographic features in children BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently recognized condition of viral origin associated with substantial morbidity and mortality rates in adults. Little information is available on its radiologic manifestations in children. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to characterize the radiographic presentation of children with SARS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We abstracted data (n=62) on the radiologic appearance and course of SARS in pediatric patients with suspect (n=25) or probable (n=37) SARS, diagnosed in five hospital sites located in three cities: Toronto, Singapore, and Hong Kong. Available chest radiographs and thoracic CTs were reviewed for the presence of the following radiographic findings: airspace disease, air bronchograms, airways inflammation and peribronchial thickening, interstitial disease, pleural effusion, and hilar adenopathy. RESULTS: A total of 62 patients (suspect=25, probable=37) were evaluated for SARS. Patient ages ranged from 5.5 months to 17 years and 11.5 months (average, 6 years and 10 months) with a female-to-male ratio of 32:30. Forty-one patients (66.1%) were in close contact with other probable, suspect, or quarantined cases; 10 patients (16.1%) had recently traveled to WHO-designated affected areas within 10 days; and 7 patients (11.2%) were transferred from other hospitals that had SARS patients. Three patients, who did not have close/hospital contact or travel history to affected areas, were classified as SARS cases based on their clinical signs and symptoms and on the fact that they were living in an endemic area. The most prominent clinical presentations were fever, with a temperature over 38 °C (100%), cough (62.9%), rhinorrhea (22.6%), myalgia (17.7%), chills (14.5%), and headache (11.3%). Other findings included sore throat (9.7%), gastrointestinal symptoms (9.7%), rigor (8.1%), and lethargy (6.5%). In general, fever and cough were the most common clinical presentations amongst younger pediatric SARS cases (age<10 years), whereas, in addition to these symptoms, headache, myalgia, sore throat, chills, and/or rigor were common in older patients (age≥10 years). The chest radiographs of 35.5% of patients were normal. The most prominent radiological findings that were observed in the remaining patients were areas of consolidation (45.2%), often peripheral with multifocal lesions in 22.6%. Peribronchial thickening was noted on chest radiographs of 14.5% of patients. Pleural effusion was observed only in one patient (age 17 years and 11.5 months), whereas interstitial disease was not observed in any patient. CONCLUSION: In pediatric cases, SARS manifests with nonspecific radiographic features making radiological differentiation difficult, especially from other commonly encountered childhood respiratory viral illnesses causing airspace disease. The radiographic presentation of suspected SARS cases ranged from normal to mild perihilar peribronchial thickening. The radiographic presentations, as expected, were relatively more pronounced in the SARS probable cases.

negative: Clinical Presentation of COVID-19: A Systematic Review Focusing on Upper Airway Symptoms AIM: Pharyngodynia, nasal congestion, rhinorrhea, smell, and taste dysfunctions could be the presenting symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The aim was to perform a systematic review of current evidences on clinical presentation of COVID-19, focusing on upper airway symptoms in order to help otolaryngologists identifying suspected cases. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases. RESULTS: We included 5 retrospective clinical studies for a total of 1556 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, 57.5% were male and mean age was 49.1 years. Pooled data revealed that pharyngodynia was present in 12.4% of patients, nasal congestion in 3.7%, and rhinorrhea was rare. No reports on COVID-19 and olfactory/gustative disorders matched inclusion criteria but preliminary evidences suggested they could be present. Common symptoms were fever (85.6%), cough (68.7%), and fatigue (39.4%). Frequent comorbidities were hypertension (17.4%), diabetes (3.8%), and coronary heart disease (3.8%); 83% of patients had alterations on chest computed tomography that were bilateral in 89.5% of cases. Ground-glass opacity was the most common finding (50%). Lymphopenia (77.2%) and leucopenia (30.1%) were common. Critical cases with complications were 9%, intensive care unit admission was required in 7.3%, invasive ventilation in 3.4%, and mortality was 2.4%. CONCLUSION: Otolaryngologists should know that pharyngodynia, nasal congestion, olfactory, and gustative disorders could be the presenting symptoms of COVID-19. Clinical presentation together with radiological and laboratory findings could help to identify suspected cases.

negative: Clinical characteristics of COVID-19-infected cancer patients: a retrospective case study in three hospitals within Wuhan, China BACKGROUND: Cancer patients are regarded as a highly vulnerable group in the current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To date, the clinical characteristics of COVID-19-infected cancer patients remain largely unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we included cancer patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from three designated hospitals in Wuhan, China. Clinical data were collected from medical records from 13 January 2020 to 26 February 2020. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out to assess the risk factors associated with severe events defined as a condition requiring admission to an intensive care unit, the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. RESULTS: A total of 28 COVID-19-infected cancer patients were included; 17 (60.7%) patients were male. Median (interquartile range) age was 65.0 (56.0–70.0) years. Lung cancer was the most frequent cancer type (n = 7; 25.0%). Eight (28.6%) patients were suspected to have hospital-associated transmission. The following clinical features were shown in our cohort: fever (n = 23, 82.1%), dry cough (n = 22, 81%), and dyspnoea (n = 14, 50.0%), along with lymphopaenia (n = 23, 82.1%), high level of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (n = 23, 82.1%), anaemia (n = 21, 75.0%), and hypoproteinaemia (n = 25, 89.3%). The common chest computed tomography (CT) findings were ground-glass opacity (n = 21, 75.0%) and patchy consolidation (n = 13, 46.3%). A total of 15 (53.6%) patients had severe events and the mortality rate was 28.6%. If the last antitumour treatment was within 14 days, it significantly increased the risk of developing severe events [hazard ratio (HR) = 4.079, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.086–15.322, P = 0.037]. Furthermore, patchy consolidation on CT on admission was associated with a higher risk of developing severe events (HR = 5.438, 95% CI 1.498–19.748, P = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: Cancer patients show deteriorating conditions and poor outcomes from the COVID-19 infection. It is recommended that cancer patients receiving antitumour treatments should have vigorous screening for COVID-19 infection and should avoid treatments causing immunosuppression or have their dosages decreased in case of COVID-19 coinfection.

negative: icumonitoring.ch: a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to “social distancing” measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to anticipate. In this context, hospitals must prepare for a potential increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here, we introduce icumonitoring.ch, a platform providing hospital-level projections for ICU occupancy. We combined current data on the number of beds and ventilators with canton-level projections of COVID-19 cases from two S-E-I-R models. We disaggregated epidemic projection in each hospital in Switzerland for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, hospitalisations in ICU, and ventilators in use. The platform is updated every 3-4 days and can incorporate projections from other modelling teams to inform decision makers with a range of epidemic scenarios for future hospital occupancy.

negative: Maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia: a case-control study Background The ongoing epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused serious concerns about its potential adverse effects on pregnancy. There are limited data on maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods We conducted a case-control study to compare clinical characteristics, maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with and without COVID-19 pneumonia. Results During January 24 to February 29, 2020, there were sixteen pregnant women with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia and eighteen suspected cases who were admitted to labor in the third trimester. Two had vaginal delivery and the rest took cesarean section. Few patients presented respiratory symptoms (fever and cough) on admission, but most had typical chest CT images of COVID-19 pneumonia. Compared to the controls, COVID-19 pneumonia patients had lower counts of white blood cells (WBC), neutrophils, C-reactive protein (CRP), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) on admission. Increased levels of WBC, neutrophils, eosinophils, and CRP were found in postpartum blood tests of pneumonia patients. There were three (18.8%) and two (10.5%) of the mothers with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 pneumonia had preterm delivery due to maternal complications, which were significantly higher than the control group. None experienced respiratory failure during hospital stay. COVID-19 infection was not found in the newborns and none developed severe neonatal complications. Conclusion Severe maternal and neonatal complications were not observed in pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia who had vaginal delivery or caesarean section. Mild respiratory symptoms of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia highlight the need of effective screening on admission.

negative: COVID-19: what is next for public health?

negative: Recommendations for Triage, Prioritization and Treatment of Breast Cancer Patients During the COVID-19 Pandemic Abstract The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) associated disease (COVID-19) outbreak seriously challenges globally all health care systems and professionals. Expert projections estimate that despite social distancing and lockdown being practiced, we have yet to feel the full impact of COVID-19. In this manuscript we provide guidance to prepare for the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer patients and advise on how to triage, prioritize and organize diagnostic procedures, surgical, radiation and medical treatments.

negative: Bacterial and fungal co-infection in individuals with coronavirus: A rapid review to support COVID-19 antimicrobial prescribing BACKGROUND: To explore and describe the current literature surrounding bacterial/fungal co-infection in patients with coronavirus infection. METHODS: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched using broad based search criteria relating to coronavirus and bacterial co-infection. Articles presenting clinical data for patients with coronavirus infection (defined as SARS-1, MERS, SARS-COV-2, and other coronavirus) and bacterial/fungal co-infection reported in English, Mandarin, or Italian were included. Data describing bacterial/fungal co-infections, treatments, and outcomes were extracted. Secondary analysis of studies reporting antimicrobial prescribing in SARS-COV-2 even in the absence of co-infection was performed. RESULTS: 1007 abstracts were identified. Eighteen full texts reported bacterial/fungal co-infection were included. Most studies did not identify or report bacterial/fungal coinfection (85/140;61%). 9/18 (50%) studies reported on COVID-19, 5/18 (28%) SARS-1, 1/18 (6%) MERS, and 3/18 (17%) other coronavirus. For COVID-19, 62/806 (8%) patients were reported as experiencing bacterial/fungal co-infection during hospital admission. Secondary analysis demonstrated wide use of broad-spectrum antibacterials, despite a paucity of evidence for bacterial coinfection. On secondary analysis, 1450/2010 (72%) of patients reported received antimicrobial therapy. No antimicrobial stewardship interventions were described. For non-COVID-19 cases bacterial/fungal co-infection was reported in 89/815 (11%) of patients. Broad-spectrum antibiotic use was reported. CONCLUSIONS: Despite frequent prescription of broad-spectrum empirical antimicrobials in patients with coronavirus associated respiratory infections, there is a paucity of data to support the association with respiratory bacterial/fungal co-infection. Generation of prospective evidence to support development of antimicrobial policy and appropriate stewardship interventions specific for the COVID-19 pandemic are urgently required.

negative: Cancer patients and research during COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of current evidence Abstract The novel coronavirus, also known as SARS-Cov-2 or COVID-19 has become a worldwide threat and the major healthcare concern of the year 2020. Cancer research was directly affected by the emerging of this disease. According to some Chinese studies, cancer patients are more vulnerable to COVID-19 complications. This observation led many oncologists to change their daily practice in cancer care, without solid evidence and recommendations. Moreover, the COVID-19 manifestations as well as its diagnosis are particular in this special population. In this review paper we expose the challenges of cancer management in the era of SARS-CoV-2, the epidemiological, clinical, pathological and radiological characteristics of the disease in cancer patients and its outcomes on this population. Finally, we focus on strategies that are followed in cancer management with review of national and international guidelines.

negative: Test and treat COVID 65 plus - Hydroxychloroquine versus placebo in early ambulatory diagnosis and treatment of older patients with COVID19: A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial OBJECTIVES: The aim of this trial is to identify the effect of ambulatory treatment in early COVID-19 disease with hydroxychloroquine on the rate of hospitalization or death in older patients above the age of 64. TRIAL DESIGN: Parallel, 2:1 randomization, double blind, placebo-controlled, multi-center trial. PARTICIPANTS: Male and female patients above the age of 64 (i.e. ≥65 years of age) with COVID-19 diagnosis confirmed by SARS-CoV2 positive throat swab (PCR). Patients can only be included within 3 days of symptom onset in ambulatory care if they consent to the study procedure and are able to adhere to the study visit schedule and protocol requirements (including telephone visits concerning symptoms and side effects). Severity of disease at inclusion is mild to moderate defined as not requiring hospital admission: SpO2 >94%, respiratory rate <20, mental state alert, no signs of septic shock. Cardiac risk is minimised by requiring a Tisdale score ≤ 6. Patients are recruited in the two german cities of Ulm and Tübingen in various ambulatory care settings. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Each patient will be given a first dose of 600 mg Hydroxychloroquine or the equivalent number of placebo capsules (3 capsules) at the day of inclusion. From the 2(nd) day on, each patient will get 200 mg or the equivalent number of placebo capsules twice a day (400mg/day) until day 7 (6 more does of 400 mg); a cumulative dose of 3 g. MAIN OUTCOMES: Rate of hospitalization or death at day 7 after study inclusion RANDOMISATION: All consenting adult patients having confirmed COVID-19 are randomly and blindly allocated in a 2:1 ratio to either IMP or placebo. The biostatistical center produced a randomization list (block randomization) with varying block length and stratified for the study center. This list is provided for packaging to the pharmaceutical unit which is providing encapsulated placebo and IMP. Only the pharmaceutical unit is aware of group allocation according to the randomization list. BLINDING (MASKING): Patients and investigators, as well as treating physicians are blinded to the treatment- allocation. NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMISED (SAMPLE SIZE): In the first stage of an adaptive design 120 patients in a 2:1 ration: 72 Verum and 36 Placebo, plus an increase for 10% drop outs. After interim analysis, the total sample size will be calculated based on the effect seen in the first stage. Total sample size is estimated approximately n = 300-400 patients. TRIAL STATUS: Protocol version number: V3, 19.05.2020 Recruitment not yet started but is anticipated to begin by June 2020 and be complete by December 2020 TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04351516, date: 17 April 2020 EudraCT: 2020-001482-37, date: 30 March 2020 FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol.

negative: COVID-19 infection: Origin, transmission, and characteristics of human coronaviruses The coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerged in Wuhan, China and spread around the world. Genomic analysis revealed that SARS-CoV-2 is phylogenetically related to severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS-like) bat viruses, therefore bats could be the possible primary reservoir. The intermediate source of origin and transfer to humans is not known, however, the rapid human to human transfer has been confirmed widely. There is no clinically approved antiviral drug or vaccine available to be used against COVID-19. However, few broad-spectrum antiviral drugs have been evaluated against COVID-19 in clinical trials, resulted in clinical recovery. In the current review, we summarize and comparatively analyze the emergence and pathogenicity of COVID-19 infection and previous human coronaviruses severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). We also discuss the approaches for developing effective vaccines and therapeutic combinations to cope with this viral outbreak.

negative: COVID-19, Australia: Epidemiology Report 2 (Reporting week ending 19:00 AEDT 8 February 2020). This is the second epidemiological report for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), previously known as novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), reported in Australia as at 19:00 Australian Eastern Daylight Time [AEDT] 8 February 2020. It includes data on Australian cases notified during the week ending 19:00 AEDT 8 February 2020, the international situation and current information on the severity, transmission and spread of the COVID-19 infection.

negative: Controlling SARS: a review on China’s response compared with other SARS‐affected countries Objective To summarise the major control measures implemented by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)‐affected countries and to compare distinctive features of the Chinese approach to other affected Asian countries and Canada. Method Literature review. Results The realisation in March 2003 that SARS was spreading led affected countries to introduce measures such as rapid dissemination of information, early case detection and isolation, tracing and quarantining of SARS contacts, traveller screening, raising public awareness of risk and institution of stricter infection control in health care settings. SARS became a notifiable disease in China in mid‐April 2003, after which introduction of efficient nationwide control measures led to containment within 2 months. Countries differed in the timeliness of implementing control measures, the mode and extent to which these were enforced and in the resources available to do so. Conclusion SARS challenged the political and public health systems of all affected countries. It demanded rapid and decisive action to be taken, yet the comparison shows how difficult this was for an unknown new disease. Guangdong reacted rapidly but this pace was not continued by China for some time, which facilitated national and international spread. Once the Chinese government changed its policy, it developed an impressive control strategy involving the public which culminated in containment. The significance of timely information was perhaps the main lesson which the SARS epidemic taught.

negative: COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 if of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.

negative: Coronavirus covid-19 has killed more people than SARS and MERS combined, despite lower case fatality rate.

negative: Post-exposure Prophylaxis or Preemptive Therapy for SARS-Coronavirus-2: Study Protocol for a Pragmatic Randomized Controlled Trial Background: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019 causing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, there are a lack of evidence-based therapies to prevent COVID-19 following exposure, or to prevent worsening of symptoms following confirmed infection. We describe the design of a clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine for post-exposure prophylaxis and pre-emptive therapy for COVID-19. Methods: We will conduct two nested multicenter international double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine for: 1) post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) of asymptomatic household contacts or healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 within the past four days, and 2) pre-emptive therapy (PET) for symptomatic outpatients with COVID-19 with a total symptom duration of less than 4 days. We will recruit 1500 patients for each the PEP and PET trials. Participants will be randomized 1:1 to receive 5 days of hydroxychloroquine or placebo. The primary PEP trial outcome will be the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 disease. The primary PET trial outcome will be an ordinal scale of disease severity (not hospitalized; hospitalized without intensive care, hospitalization with intensive care, or death). Participant screening, informed consent, and follow up will be exclusively internet-based with appropriate regulatory and research ethics board approvals in Canada and the United States. Discussion: These complementary randomized control trials are innovatively designed and adequately powered to rapidly answer urgent questions regarding the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine to reduce transmission and disease severity of COVID-19 during a pandemic. In-person participant follow-up will not be conducted in order to facilitate social distancing strategies and reduce risks of exposure to study personnel. Innovative trial approaches are needed to urgently assess therapeutic options to mitigate the global impact of this pandemic. Trials Registration: clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04308668); 16 March 2020.

negative: S1 domain of the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus spike protein as a vaccine antigen BACKGROUND: Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is a highly contagious virus infecting pigs of all ages with high morbidity and mortality among newborn piglets. Currently, there is no effective vaccine available to protect the pigs from PEDV. The N-terminal subunit of spike protein (S1) is responsible for virus binding to the cellular receptor and contains a number of neutralizing antibody epitopes. Thus, we expressed and produced recombinant S1 protein to protect newborn piglets by immunization of sows. METHODS: Affinity tagged PEDV S1 protein was expressed in a secretory form in yeast, insect and mammalian cells to identify the most suitable production system. Purified recombinant protein was analysed by SDS-PAGE, Western blot and deglycosylation assay. A pregnant sow was intramuscularly immunized three times with adjuvanted recombinant protein prior to farrowing. PEDV-specific immune responses in sera and colostrum of the sow and piglets were assayed by ELISA and virus neutralization assays. Piglets were challenged orally with PEDV, and clinical parameters were monitored for 6 days post-challenge. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Of three eukaryotic expression systems tested (yeast, insect-cell, and mammalian), expression by HEK-293 T cells gave the highest yield of protein that was N-glycosylated and was the most appropriate candidate for vaccination. Administration of the subunit vaccine in a sow resulted in induction of S1-specific IgG and IgA that were passively transferred to the suckling piglets. Also, high virus neutralization titres were observed in the serum of the vaccinated sow and its piglets. After PEDV challenge, piglets born to the vaccinated sow exhibited less severe signs of disease and significantly lower mortality compared to the piglets of a control sow. However, there were no significant differences in diarrhea, body weight and virus shedding. Thus, vaccination with S1 subunit vaccine failed to provide complete protection to suckling piglets after challenge exposure, and further improvements are needed for the development of a subunit vaccine that fully protects against PEDV infection.

negative: The Israel Society for Neuroscience 19th Annual Meeting Eilat, Dec. 12 - 14, 2010 www.isfn.org.il: Abstracts

negative: The use of anti-inflammatory drugs in the treatment of people with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): The Perspectives of clinical immunologists from China Abstract The pandemic outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading all over the world. Reports from China showed that about 20% of patients developed severe disease, resulting in a fatality of 4%. In the past two months, we clinical immunologists participated in multi-rounds of MDT (multidiscipline team) discussion on the anti-inflammation management of critical COVID-19 patients, with our colleagues dispatched from Chinese leading PUMC Hospital to Wuhan to admit and treat the most severe patients. Here, from the perspective of clinical immunologists, we will discuss the clinical and immunological characteristics of severe patients, and summarize the current evidence and share our experience in anti-inflammation treatment, including glucocorticoids, IL-6 antagonist, JAK inhibitors and choloroquine/hydrocholoroquine, of patients with severe COVID-19 that may have an impaired immune system.

negative: A New, Simple Projection Model for COVID-19 Pandemic With the worldwide outbreak of COVID-19, an accurate model to predict how the coronavirus pandemic will evolve becomes important and urgent to help policy makers in different countries address the epidemic outbreak and determine policies to control spread more efficiently and effectively. Unlike the classic public health and virus propagation models, this new projection model takes government intervention and public response into account to make reliable projections of the outbreak 10 days to 2 weeks in advance.

negative: Abnormal liver function tests predict transfer to intensive care unit and death in COVID‐19 BACKGROUND: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) has emerged as a relevant threat for humans worldwide. Abnormality in liver function tests (LFTs) has been commonly observed in patients with COVID‐19, but there is controversy on its clinical significance. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, the characteristics and the clinical impact of abnormal LFTs in hospitalized, non‐critically ill patients with COVID‐19. METHODS: In this multicenter, retrospective study, we collected data about 565 inpatients with COVID‐19. Data on LFTs were collected at admission and every 7±2 days during the hospitalization. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of death or transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS: Upon admission 329 patients (58%) had LFTs abnormality. Patients with abnormal LFTs had more severe inflammation and higher degree of organ dysfunction than those without. During hospitalization, patients with abnormal LFTs had a higher rate of transfer to ICU (20vs8%; p<0.001), acute kidney injury (22vs13%, p=0.009), need for mechanical ventilation (14vs6%; p=0.005), and mortality (21vs11%; p=0.004) than those without. In multivariate analysis, patients with abnormal LFTs had a higher risk of the composite endpoint of death or transfer to ICU (OR=3.53; p<0.001). During the hospitalization, 86 patients developed de novo LFTs abnormality, which was associated with the use of tocilizumab, lopinavir/ritonavir and acetaminophen and not clearly associated with the composite endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: LFTs abnormality is common at admission in patients with COVID‐19, is associated with systemic inflammation, organ dysfunction and is an independent predictor of transfer to ICU or death.

negative: Handling the COVID-19 pandemic in the oncological setting

negative: Understanding epidemic data and statistics: A case study of COVID‐19 The 2019 novel‐coronavirus (COVID‐19) has affected 181 countries with approximately 1197405 confirmed cases (by 5th April). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which got affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies are critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID‐19 reported cases show that more than 80% of infected are mild cases of disease, around 14% of infected have severe complications, and about 5% are categorized as critical disease victims. Today's report (5th April 2020; daily updates in the prepared website) shows that the confirmed cases of COVID‐19 in the United States, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632, and 96092, respectively. Calculating the total case fatality rate (CFR) of Italy (4th April 2020), about 13.3% of confirmed cases have passed away. Compared with South Korea's rate of 1.8% (seven times lower than Italy) and China's 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. Some effective policies that yielded significant changes in the trend of cases were the lockdown policy in China, Italy, and Spain (the effect observed after some days), the shutdown of all nonessential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea, and reducing working hours in Iran.

negative: Optimizing Access to Heart Failure Care in Canada During the COVID-19 Pandemic The traditional model of heart failure (HF) care in Canada, which relies upon a multidisciplinary team and clinic-based care processes, has been undermined as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic continues, we will be challenged to improve or maintain the health status of those with HF by optimizing guideline-directed care despite physical distancing constraints and a reduction in the health care workforce. This will require development of new strategies specifically targeted at decreasing the risk of decompensation and resultant HF hospitalization. As such, we must quickly pivot to the adoption and application of novel technologies and revise usual care models, processes, and workflow. The unprecedented COVID-19 crisis has delivered the Canadian HF community a burning platform for the design and implementation of innovative approaches to support the vulnerable population we serve; born out of necessity, we now have the opportunity to explore innovative approaches that might inform the future of HF care delivery in Canada. Herein, we provide perspectives from leadership within the Canadian Heart Failure Society on how to optimize HF care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Managing disasters amid COVID-19 pandemic: Approaches of response to flood disasters Abstract The world faces difficulties to manage disasters while making efforts of slowing the spread of COVID-19. The paper aims at proposing policies and approaches to manage dual disasters of flooding and COVID-19. It reviews on-going efforts of organizations in the humanitarian assistance, water and sanitation, disaster management and health sectors. Based on review works the policy was recommended. The objective of the policy is to protect human life, in particular, vulnerable groups, from the human security perspective. Local organizations and communities play an important role in disaster management, and risk information supported by scientific knowledge is essential. As the experience of disaster management show various organizations including health and water should be coordinated to conduct measures.

negative: The anti-viral facet of anti-rheumatic drugs: Lessons from COVID-19 Abstract The outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has posed the world at a pandemic risk. Coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, which causes pneumonia, requires intensive care unit hospitalization in about 10% of cases and can lead to a fatal outcome. Several efforts are currently made to find a treatment for COVID-19 patients. So far, several anti-viral and immunosuppressive or immunomodulating drugs have demonstrated some efficacy on COVID-19 both in vitro and in animal models as well as in cases series. In COVID-19 patients a pro-inflammatory status with high levels of interleukin (IL)-1B, IL-1 receptor (R)A and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α has been demonstrated. Moreover, high levels of IL-6 and TNF-α have been observed in patients requiring intensive-care-unit hospitalization. This provided rationale for the use of anti-rheumatic drugs as potential treatments for this severe viral infection. Other agents, such as hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine might have a direct anti-viral effect. The anti-viral aspect of immunosuppressants towards a variety of viruses has been known since long time and it is herein discussed in the view of searching for a potential treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: Timely mental health care for the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak is urgently needed

negative: Canadian Public Health Laboratory Network Best Practices for COVID-19. The ability to detect severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of COVID-19, is a foundational component of Canada's containment and mitigation strategies. Laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 cases allows the appropriate clinical management and public health interventions. Whether the local goal is containment or mitigation will depend on local epidemiology of the pandemic. The Respiratory Virus Infections Working Group of the Canadian Public Health Laboratory Network has developed comprehensive Best Practice Guidelines for detection of SARS-CoV-2. Best practices for specimen collection, transportation, testing and biosafety are addressed from the perspective of Canadian public health laboratories to ensure a consistent approach across the country: Population-based testing for COVID-19 should initially be carried out for surveillanceNasopharyngeal swab is the specimen of choice for routine testingNucleic acid amplification tests (such as real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) are the method of choice for routine testing of SARS-CoV-2The decentralization of nucleic acid amplification testing for COVID-19 to hospital or other high complexity medical laboratories should be promoted to increase test capacity and meet increased demandsIn the early stages of the pandemic, positive (approximately 10-20) and negative (approximately 50) tests by a provincial laboratory require confirmation at the National Microbiology LaboratoryCo-circulation of other viral agents associated with influenza-like Illnesses (e.g. influenza A and B and respiratory syncytial virus) should be monitored as capacity permits, as part of ongoing surveillanceOnce validated, serological testing may be utilized for assessing the presence/absence of immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 at either the population or individual level for select indications, but is likely to be of limited utility in diagnosis of acute COVID-19 illness These recommendations will be updated as new information becomes available.

negative: Measuring COVID-19 and Influenza in the Real World via Person-Generated Health Data Background: Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic data from smartphones and connected sensors has been used to learn about symptoms presentation and management outside the clinic walls. However, reports on the validity of such data are still sparse, especially when it comes to symptom progression and relevance of wearable sensors. Objective: To understand the relevance of Person-GeneratedHealth Data (PGHD) as a means for early detection, monitoring and management of COVID-19 in everyday life. This includes quantifying prevalence and progression of symptoms from self-reports as well as changes in activity and physiological parameters continuously measured from wearable sensors, and contextualizing findings for COVID-19 patients with those from cohorts of flu patients. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective digital cohort study of individuals with a self-reported positive SARS-CoV-2 or influenza test followed over the period 2019-12-02 to2020-04-27. Three cohorts were derived: Patients who self-reported being diagnosed with flu prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (N=6270, of which 1226 also contributed sensorPGHD); Patients who reported being diagnosed with flu during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (N=426, of which 85 also shared sensor PGHD); and patients who reported being diagnosed withCOVID-19 (N=230, of which sensor PGHD was available for 41).The cohorts were derived from a large-scale digital participatory surveillance study designed to track Influenza-like Illness(ILI) incidence and burden over time. Exposures: Self-reported demographic data, comorbidities, and symptoms experienced during a diagnosed ILI episode, including SARS-CoV-2.Physiological and behavioral parameters measured daily from commercial wearable sensors, includingResting Heart Rate (RHR), total step count, and nightly sleep hours. Main Outcomes and Measures: We investigated the percent-age of individuals experiencing symptoms of a given type (e.g.shortness of breath) across demographic groups and over time. We examined illness duration, and care seeking behavior, and how RHR, step count, and nightly sleep hours deviated from expected behavior on healthy days over the course of the infection episode. Results: Self-reported symptoms of COVID-19 present differently from flu. COVID-19 cases tended to last longer than flu(median of 12 vs. 9 days), are uniquely characterized by chest pain/pressure, shortness of breath, and anosmia. The fraction of elevated RHR measurements collected daily from commercial wearable devices rise significantly in the 2 days surrounding ILI symptoms onset, but does not appear to do so in a way specific to COVID-19. Steps lost due to COVID-19 persists for longer. Conclusion and Relevance: PGHD can be a valid source of longitudinal real world data to detect and monitor COVID-19-related symptoms and behaviors at population scale. PGHD may provide continuous, near realtime feedback to intervention effectiveness that otherwise requires waiting for symptoms to develop into contacts with the healthcare system. It has also the potential to increase pre-test probability of other downstream diagnostics. To effectively leverage PGHD for participatory surveillance it is crucial to invest in the creation of trusted, long-term communication channels with individuals through whichdata can be efficiently collected, consented, and contextualized,while protecting the privacy of individuals and ultimately facilitating the transition in and out of care.

negative: World Affairs : CORONAVIRUS 感染爆発を招いた2つの病魔が文政権を追い込む : 韓国

negative: Macrophage interleukin-6 and tumour necrosis factor-α are induced by coronavirus fixation to Toll-like receptor 2/heparan sulphate receptors but not carcinoembryonic cell adhesion antigen 1a A rapid antiviral immune response may be related to viral interaction with the host cell leading to activation of macrophages via pattern recognition receptors (PPRs) or specific viral receptors. Carcinoembryonic cell adhesion antigen 1a (CEACAM1a) is the specific receptor for the mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), a coronavirus known to induce acute viral hepatitis in mice. The objective of this study was to understand the mechanisms responsible for the secretion of high-pathogenic MHV3-induced inflammatory cytokines. We report that the induction of the pro-inflammatory cytokines interleukin (IL)-6 and tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α in peritoneal macrophages does not depend on CEACAM1a, as demonstrated in cells isolated from Ceacam1a(−/−) mice. The induction of IL-6 and TNF-α production was related rather to the fixation of the spike (S) protein of MHV3 on Toll-like receptor 2 (TLR2) in regions enriched in heparan sulphate and did not rely on viral replication, as demonstrated with denatured S protein and UV-inactivated virus. High levels of IL-6 and TNF-α were produced in livers from infected C57BL/6 mice but not in livers from Tlr2(−/−) mice. The histopathological observations were correlated with the levels of those inflammatory cytokines. Depending on mouse strain, the viral fixation to heparan sulfate/TLR2 stimulated differently the p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) and nuclear factor (NF)-κB in the induction of IL-6 and TNF-α. These results suggest that TLR2 and heparan sulphate receptors can act as new viral PPRs involved in inflammatory responses.

negative: Exotic Viral Diseases: A Global Guide Stephen A. Berger Charles H. Calisher Unknown

negative: Just the Facts: Recommendations on point-of-care ultrasound use and machine infection control during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic The World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to be a pandemic on March 11, 2020, and, currently, there are over 10,000 confirmed cases in Canada, with this number expected to grow exponentially. There has been widespread interest in the use of point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in the management of patients with suspected COVID-19. The CAEP Emergency Ultrasound Committee has developed recommendations on the use of POCUS in these patients, with an emphasis on machine infection control measures.

negative: THE ROLE OF RESPIRATORY VIRUSES IN ACUTE AND CHRONIC ASTHMA Respiratory tract infections caused by viruses, 24, 70 chlamydia, 18, 19, 43, 55, 116 and mycoplasma(61) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of asthma. Viruses have been demonstrated to be associated with asthma epidemiologically in at least two ways (Fig. 1). First, during infancy, certain viruses have been implicated as potentially being responsible for the inception of the asthmatic phenotype. Second, in patients, particularly children, with established asthma, viral upper respiratory tract infections play a significant role in producing acute exacerbations of airway obstruction that may result in frequent outpatient visits or hospitalizations. 24, 55, 56, 57 This article reviews these two areas by focusing first on mechanisms by which virus infections may lead to the development of asthma in infants and children and, second, on mechanisms by which virus infections may produce acute asthmatic symptoms in patients who already have established disease.

negative: Detection of COPD Exacerbations and Compliance With Patient-Reported Daily Symptom Diaries Using a Smartphone-Based Information System Background Paper-based diaries and self-report of symptom worsening in COPD may lead to underdetection of exacerbations. Epidemiologically, COPD exacerbations exhibit seasonal patterns peaking at year-end. We examined whether the use of a BlackBerry-based daily symptom diary would detect 95% or more of exacerbations and enable characterization of seasonal differences among them. Methods Fifty participants with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stage I to IV COPD began a community-based study in December 2007. Another 30 began in December 2008. Participants transmitted daily symptom diaries using a BlackBerry. Alerts were triggered when symptom changes, missed diary transmissions, or medical care for a respiratory problem occurred. Participant encounters were initiated if COPD exacerbations were suspected. Participants used their BlackBerrys to report returns to normal breathing. Results Participants transmitted 99.9% of 28,514 possible daily diaries. All 191 (2.5/participant-year) COPD exacerbations meeting Anthonisen criteria were detected. During 148 of the 191 exacerbations (78%, 1.97/participant-year), patients were hospitalized and/or ordered prednisone, an antibiotic, or both. Respiratory viruses were detected in 78 of the 191 exacerbations (41%). Those coinciding with a respiratory viral infection averaged 12.0 days, and those without averaged 8.9 days (P < .04), with no difference in Anthonisen score. Respiratory symptom scores before exacerbations and after normal breathing return showed no differences. Exacerbations were more frequent during the Christmas period than the rest of the year but were not more frequent than in the rest of winter alone. Conclusions Smartphone-based collection of COPD symptom diaries enables near-complete identification of exacerbations at inception. Exacerbation rates in the Christmas season do not reach levels that necessitate changes in disease management.

negative: Critical Care Pandemic Preparedness Primer The first half decade of the 21(st) century has brought with it infectious outbreaks such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [1], bioterrorism attacks with anthrax [2], and the spread of H5N1 influenza A in birds across Asia and Europe [3, 4] sparking concerns reminiscent of the days of the Black Plague. These events, in the context of an instantaneous global-media world, have placed an unprecedented emphasis on preparing for a human influenza pandemic [5, 6]. Although some argue that the media have exaggerated the threat, the warnings of an impending pandemic are not without foundation given the history of past influenza pandemics [7], incidence of H5N1 infections among humans [8], and the potential impact of a pandemic. Reports of the 1918 pandemic vary, but most suggested that approximately one third of the world’s population was infected with 50 to 100 million deaths [9]. Computer modeling of a moderate pandemic, less severe then in 1918, in the province of Ontario, Canada predicts 73,252 admissions of influenza patients to hospitals over a 6-week period utilizing 72% of the hospital capacity, 171% of intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, and 118% of current ventilator capacity. Pandemic modeling by the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society also showed that critical care resources would be overwhelmed by even a moderate pandemic [10]. This chapter will provide intensivists with a review of the basic scientific and clinical aspects of influenza as well as an introduction to pandemic preparedness.

negative: Comparison of Hospitalized Patients With ARDS Caused by COVID-19 and H1N1 Background Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China in December 2019, considerable attention has been focused on its elucidation. However, it is also important for clinicians and epidemiologists to differentiate COVID-19 from other respiratory infectious diseases such as influenza viruses. Research question The aim of this study was to explore the different clinical presentations between COVID-19 and influenza A (H1N1) pneumonia in patients with ARDS. Study Design and Methods This analysis was a retrospective case-control study. Two independent cohorts of patients with ARDS infected with either COVID-19 (n = 73) or H1N1 (n = 75) were compared. Their clinical manifestations, imaging characteristics, treatments, and prognosis were analyzed and compared. Results The median age of patients with COVID-19 was higher than that of patients with H1N1, and there was a higher proportion of male subjects among the COVID-19 cohort (P < .05). Patients with COVID-19 exhibited higher proportions of nonproductive coughs, fatigue, and GI symptoms than those of patients with H1N1 (P < .05). Patients with H1N1 had higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores than patients with COVID-19 (P < .05). The Pao 2/Fio 2 of 198.2 mm Hg in the COVID-19 cohort was significantly higher than the Pao 2/Fio 2 of 107.0 mm Hg in the H1N1 cohort (P < .001). Ground-glass opacities was more common in patients with COVID-19 than in patients with H1N1 (P < .001). There was a greater variety of antiviral therapies administered to COVID-19 patients than to H1N1 patients. The in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 was 28.8%, whereas that of patients with H1N1 was 34.7% (P = .483). SOFA score-adjusted mortality of H1N1 patients was significantly higher than that of COVID-19 patients, with a rate ratio of 2.009 (95% CI, 1.563-2.583; P < .001). Interpretation There were many differences in clinical presentations between patients with ARDS infected with either COVID-19 or H1N1. Compared with H1N1 patients, patients with COVID-19-induced ARDS had lower severity of illness scores at presentation and lower SOFA score-adjusted mortality.

negative: Amelanchier alnifolia This species is native to North America from Alaska, Western Canada and western (southwards to North California, Utah and Colorado) and north central Unites States. In Canada, the species is found in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, North West Territories and Nunavut.

negative: How to Effectively Support Patients with Rheumatic Conditions Now and Beyond COVID‐19 May 2020, the COVID‐19 pandemic continues to unfold. Governments are investing in public health, clinical and research efforts to avoid the spread of the SARS‐CoV‐2 virus, reduce the number of deaths and prevent the collapse of health care systems. However, this pandemic will have unprecedented consequences for people who live with chronic conditions for the months and even years to come without coordinated actions.

negative: The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)—An emerging global health threat Abstract The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) causing novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia (NCIP), has affected the lives of 71,429 people globally. Originating in China, the disease has a rapid progression to other countries. Research suggests remarkable genomic resemblance of 2019-nCoV with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) which has a history of a pandemic in 2002. With evidence of nosocomial spread, a number of diligent measures are being employed to constrain its propagation. Hence, the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) has been established by the World Health Organization (WHO) with strategic objectives for public health to curtail its impact on global health and economy.

negative: Crystal structure of the Yersinia tyrosine phosphatase

negative: Clinical features and the maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with coronavirus disease 2019 BACKGROUND There is little information about the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) during pregnancy. This study aimed to determine the clinical features and the maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with Covid-19. METHODS In this retrospective analysis from five hospitals, we included pregnant women with Covid-19 from January 1 to February 20, 2020. The primary composite endpoints were admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, or death. Secondary endpoints included the clinical severity of Covid-19, neonatal mortality, admission to neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and the incidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of pregnant women and newborns. RESULTS Thirty-three pregnant women with Covid-19 and 28 newborns were identified. One (3%) pregnant woman needed the use of mechanical ventilation. No pregnant women admitted to the ICU. There were no moralities among pregnant women or newborns. The percentages of pregnant women with mild, moderate, and severe symptoms were 13 (39.4%),19(57.6%), and 1(3%). One (3.6%) newborn developed ARDS and was admitted to the NICU. The rate of perinatal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was 3.6%. CONCLUSIONS This report suggests that pregnant women are not at increased risk for severe illness or mortality with Covid-19 compared with the general population. The SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy might not be associated with as adverse obstetrical and neonatal outcomes that are seen with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection during pregnancy. (Funded by the National Key Research and Development Program.)

negative: Association of hypertension and antihypertensive treatment with COVID-19 mortality: a retrospective observational study AIMS: It remains unknown whether the treatment of hypertension influences the mortality of patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS AND RESULTS: This is a retrospective observational study of all patients admitted with COVID-19 to Huo Shen Shan Hospital. The hospital was dedicated solely to the treatment of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China. Hypertension and the treatments were stratified according to the medical history or medications administrated prior to the infection. Among 2877 hospitalized patients, 29.5% (850/2877) had a history of hypertension. After adjustment for confounders, patients with hypertension had a two-fold increase in the relative risk of mortality as compared with patients without hypertension [4.0% vs. 1.1%, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17–3.82, P = 0.013]. Patients with a history of hypertension but without antihypertensive treatment (n = 140) were associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality compared with those with antihypertensive treatments (n = 730) (7.9% vs. 3.2%, adjusted HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.03–4.57, P = 0.041). The mortality rates were similar between the renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor (4/183) and non-RAAS inhibitor (19/527) cohorts (2.2% vs. 3.6%, adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.28–2.58, P = 0.774). However, in a study-level meta-analysis of four studies, the result showed that patients with RAAS inhibitor use tend to have a lower risk of mortality (relative risk 0.65, 95% CI 0.45–0.94, P = 0.20). CONCLUSION: While hypertension and the discontinuation of antihypertensive treatment are suspected to be related to increased risk of mortality, in this retrospective observational analysis, we did not detect any harm of RAAS inhibitors in patients infected with COVID-19. However, the results should be considered as exploratory and interpreted cautiously.

negative: Preliminary data on outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a Spanish single center cohort of kidney recipients

negative: Impact of COVID-19 on Pediatric Gastroenterology Fellow Training in North America BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has drastically changed healthcare systems and training around the world. The Training Committee of the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition sought to understand how COVID-19 has affected pediatric gastroenterology fellowship training. METHODS: A 21 question survey was distributed to all 77 pediatric gastroenterology fellowship program directors (PDs) in the North American Society for Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition program director database via email on April 7. Responses collected through April 19, 2020 were analyzed using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Fifty-one of 77 (66%) PDs from the United States, Canada, and Mexico responded to the survey. Forty-six of 51 (90%) PDs reported that they were under a “stay-at-home” order for a median of 4 weeks at the time of the survey. Two of the 51 (4%) programs had fellows participating in outpatient telehealth before COVID-19 and 39 of 51 (76%) at the time of the survey. Fellows stopped participating in outpatient clinics in 22 of 51 (43%) programs and endoscopy in 26 of 51 (52%) programs. Changes to inpatient care included reduced fellow staffing, limiting who entered patient rooms, and rounding remotely. Fellows in 3 New York programs were deployed to adult medicine units. Didactics were moved to virtual conferences in 47 of 51 (94%) programs, and fellows used various online resources. Clinical research and, disproportionately, bench research were restricted. CONCLUSIONS: This report provides early information of the impact of COVID-19 on pediatric fellowship training. Rapid adoption of telehealth and reduced clinical and research experiences were important changes. Survey information may spur communication and innovation to help educators adapt.

negative: Special Editorial: WAC in the Time of Coronavirus

negative: Indigenous populations health protection: A Canadian perspective The disproportionate effects of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic on many Canadian Aboriginal communities have drawn attention to the vulnerability of these communities in terms of health outcomes in the face of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases. Exploring the particular challenges facing these communities is essential to improving public health planning. In alignment with the objectives of the Pandemic Influenza Outbreak Research Modelling (Pan-InfORM) team, a Canadian public health workshop was held at the Centre for Disease Modelling (CDM) to: (i) evaluate post-pandemic research findings; (ii) identify existing gaps in knowledge that have yet to be addressed through ongoing research and collaborative activities; and (iii) build upon existing partnerships within the research community to forge new collaborative links with Aboriginal health organizations. The workshop achieved its objectives in identifying main research findings and emerging information post pandemic, and highlighting key challenges that pose significant impediments to the health protection and promotion of Canadian Aboriginal populations. The health challenges faced by Canadian indigenous populations are unique and complex, and can only be addressed through active engagement with affected communities. The academic research community will need to develop a new interdisciplinary framework, building upon concepts from ‘Communities of Practice’, to ensure that the research priorities are identified and targeted, and the outcomes are translated into the context of community health to improve policy and practice.

negative: Structure and infrastructure of infectious agent research literature: SARS Text mining was used to extract technical intelligence from the open source global SARS research literature. A SARS-focused query was applied to the Science Citation Index (SCI) (SCI 2008) database for the period 1998–early 2008. The SARS research literature infrastructure (prolific authors, key journals/institutions/countries, most cited authors/journals/documents) was obtained using bibliometrics, and the SARS research literature technical structure (hierarchical taxonomy) was obtained using computational linguistics/document clustering.

negative: Understanding heterogeneity to inform the public health response to COVID-19 in Canada.

negative: Duration of serum neutralizing antibodies for SARS-CoV-2: Lessons from SARS-CoV infection

negative: Number of International Arrivals Predicts Severity of the first Global Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic Background: Reported death rates from different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic vary. Lack of universal testing and death underreporting make between-country comparisons difficult. The country-level determinants of COVID-19 mortality are unknown. Objective: Derive a measure of COVID-related death rates that is comparable across countries and identify its country-level predictors. Methods: An ecological study design of publicly available data was employed. Countries reporting >25 COVID-related deaths until May 1, 2020 were included. The outcome was the mean mortality rate from COVID-19, an estimate of the country-level daily increase in reported deaths during the ascending phase of the epidemic curve. Potential predictors assessed were most recently published Demographic parameters (population and population density, percentage population living in urban areas, median age, average body mass index, smoking prevalence), Economic parameters (Gross Domestic Product per capita; environmental parameters: pollution levels, mean temperature (January-April)), co-morbidities (prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and cancer), health systems parameters (WHO Health Index and hospital beds per 10,000 population and international arrivals). Multivariable linear regression was used to analyse the data. Results: Thirty-one countries were included. Of all country-level predictors included in the multivariable model, only total number of international arrivals was significantly associated with the mean death rate: Beta 0.3798 (95% Confidence Interval 0.2414, 0.5182), P <0.001. Conclusion: International travel was directly associated with the mortality slope and thus potentially the spread of COVID-19. Stopping international travel, particularly from affected areas, may be the most effective strategy to control COVID outbreak and prevent related deaths.

negative: Rhinoviruses Rhinovirus is the major cause of common colds in humans. For many years, common colds were considered a trivial disease, but more recent evidence suggests that the many serotypes of rhinovirus are responsible for triggering the development of acute viral otitis media and sinusitis, exacerbation of asthma in children and adults, and exacerbation of chronic bronchitis in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In addition to improved symptomatic treatment of colds, new treatment strategies are needed to reduce the morbidity of rhinovirus infections. Further understanding of the pathogenesis of rhinovirus infection in the ear, sinus, and lower airways is warranted.

negative: De-Escalation by Reversing the Escalation with a Stronger Synergistic Package of Contact Tracing, Quarantine, Isolation and Personal Protection: Feasibility of Preventing a COVID-19 Rebound in Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, most Canadian provinces have gone through four distinct phases of social distancing and enhanced testing. A transmission dynamics model fitted to the cumulative case time series data permits us to estimate the effectiveness of interventions implemented in terms of the contact rate, probability of transmission per contact, proportion of isolated contacts, and detection rate. This allows us to calculate the control reproduction number during different phases (which gradually decreased to less than one). From this, we derive the necessary conditions in terms of enhanced social distancing, personal protection, contact tracing, quarantine/isolation strength at each escalation phase for the disease control to avoid a rebound. From this, we quantify the conditions needed to prevent epidemic rebound during de-escalation by simply reversing the escalation process.

negative: Recomendaciones de consenso respecto al soporte respiratorio no invasivo en el paciente adulto con insuficiencia respiratoria aguda secundaria a infección por SARS-CoV-2() Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory tract infection caused by a newly emergent coronavirus, that was first recognized in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined the infection as a global pandemic and there is a health and social emergency for the management of this new infection. While most people with COVID-19 develop only mild or uncomplicated illness, approximately 14% develop severe disease that requires hospitalization and oxygen support, and 5% require admission to an intensive care unit. In severe cases, COVID-19 can be complicated by the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis and septic shock, and multiorgan failure. This consensus document has been prepared on evidence-informed guidelines developed by a multidisciplinary panel of health care providers from four Spanish scientific societies (Spanish Society of Intensive Care Medicine [SEMICYUC], Spanish Society of Pulmonologists [SEPAR], Spanish Society of Emergency [SEMES], Spanish Society of Anesthesiology, Reanimation, and Pain [SEDAR]) with experience in the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and other viral infections, including SARS, as well as sepsis and ARDS. The document provides clinical recommendations for the noninvasive respiratory support (noninvasive ventilation, high flow oxygen therapy with nasal cannula) in any patient with suspected or confirmed presentation of COVID-19 with acute respiratory failure. This consensus guidance should serve as a foundation for optimized supportive care to ensure the best possible chance for survival and to allow for reliable comparison of investigational therapeutic interventions as part of randomized controlled trials.

negative: Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study BACKGROUND: Since Dec 31, 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan has reported an outbreak of atypical pneumonia caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Cases have been exported to other Chinese cities, as well as internationally, threatening to trigger a global outbreak. Here, we provide an estimate of the size of the epidemic in Wuhan on the basis of the number of cases exported from Wuhan to cities outside mainland China and forecast the extent of the domestic and global public health risks of epidemics, accounting for social and non-pharmaceutical prevention interventions. METHODS: We used data from Dec 31, 2019, to Jan 28, 2020, on the number of cases exported from Wuhan internationally (known days of symptom onset from Dec 25, 2019, to Jan 19, 2020) to infer the number of infections in Wuhan from Dec 1, 2019, to Jan 25, 2020. Cases exported domestically were then estimated. We forecasted the national and global spread of 2019-nCoV, accounting for the effect of the metropolitan-wide quarantine of Wuhan and surrounding cities, which began Jan 23–24, 2020. We used data on monthly flight bookings from the Official Aviation Guide and data on human mobility across more than 300 prefecture-level cities in mainland China from the Tencent database. Data on confirmed cases were obtained from the reports published by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Serial interval estimates were based on previous studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered metapopulation model was used to simulate the epidemics across all major cities in China. The basic reproductive number was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credibile interval (CrI). FINDINGS: In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks. INTERPRETATION: Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund (Hong Kong, China).

negative: Use of albumin quotient and IgG index to differentiate blood‐ vs brain‐derived proteins in the cerebrospinal fluid of cats with feline infectious peritonitis Background: Inflammation of the central nervous system (CNS) is a frequent condition in cats but etiology often remains unsolved. Routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) analysis can be extended through the calculation of the albumin quotient (Q (alb)), a marker of the integrity of the blood–brain barrier (BBB), and IgG index, an estimate of intrathecal IgG synthesis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to validate nephelometric methods for CSF protein analysis, and to use the Q (alb) and IgG index to discriminate blood‐ and brain‐derived immunoglobulin fractions in cats with feline infectious peritonitis (FIP). Methods: Cats presented to our clinic between 2001 and 2005 were included in the study based on clinical and laboratory data and histopathologic findings at necropsy. Cats were grouped as having nonneurologic disease (controls; n=37), brain tumors (n=8), FIP involving the CNS (n=12), and extraneural FIP (n=12). CSF‐total protein (TP) was measured and albumin and IgG concentrations were measured in paired CSF/serum samples; Q (alb) and IgG index were calculated. Intraassay and interassay precision of the nephelometric assays were determined using pooled samples. Results: Coefficients of variation for the nephelometric assays ranged from 2.7% to 7.2%. In control cats, CSF‐TP concentration ranged from 0.06 to 0.36 g/L, Q (alb) ranged from 0.6 to 5.7 × 10(−3), and IgG index ranged from 0.3 to 0.6. Q (alb) and IgG index were significantly higher in cats with brain tumors and cats with CNS‐FIP compared with other groups. Compared with control cats, pleocytosis was evident in 8 of 12 (67%) cats and CSF‐TP was increased in 3 of 12 (25%) cats with CNS‐FIP. Conclusion: Nephelometry is a reliable method for measurement of CSF protein, albumin, and IgG in cats. The Q (alb) and IgG index did not identify a CSF protein pattern specific for BBB dysfunction or intrathecal IgG synthesis in cats with CNS‐FIP.

negative: Is another public health crisis brewing beneath the COVID-19 pandemic? Evidence indicates associations between exposure to mass traumatic events and increased alcohol consumption and related harms following the crises. However, there is limited evidence available to inform alcohol policies during such events. In this commentary, we present the range of government actions to control public access to alcohol during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in provinces and territories across Canada. Liquor retailers, including both private and government-run retailers, have been designated as essential services in all jurisdictions, operating under an evolving set of rules. From a public health perspective, keeping liquor retailers open during pandemic-related lockdown restrictions is a delicate decision which poses new risks and considerations about the best strategy for minimizing alcohol-related harms. We discuss the need to strike a balance between supplying public access to alcohol, particularly to those living with dependence, and unintentionally sending the message that alcohol is essential in our lives and encouraging consumption. Given the far-reaching effects of alcohol on health, social, psychological, economic, and work safety outcomes, we describe international guidance for minimizing alcohol-related harms and suggest that a nuanced and evidence-informed discussion about the considerations and impacts of alcohol control measures during a public health emergency should be undertaken.

negative: The Association Between Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers and the Number of Covid-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths in the United States: Geospatial Study Background: The novel coronavirus SARS-Cov2 uses the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor as an entry point to the cell. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a risk factor for the novel coronavirus disease (Covid-19) with poor outcomes. We hypothesized that the rate of ACE inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) use is associated with the rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases and deaths. Methods: We conducted a geospatial study using publicly available county-level data. The Medicare ACEIs and ARBs prescription rate was exposure. The Covid-19 confirmed case and death rates were outcomes. Spatial autoregression models were adjusted for the percentage of Black residents, children, residents with at least some college degree, median household income, air quality index, CVD hospitalization rate in Medicare beneficiaries, and CVD death rate in a total county population. Results: The ACEI use had no effect on Covid-19 confirmed case rate. An average ACEIs use (compared to no-use) was associated with a higher Covid-19 death rate by 1.1 (95%CI 0.4-1.8)%. If the use of ACEIs increases by 0.5% for all counties, the Covid-19 death rate will drop by 0.4% to 0.7(95%CI 0.3-1.1)%; P<0.0001. An average ARBs use (compared to no-use) was associated with a higher Covid-19 confirmed case rate (by 4.2; 95%CI 4.1-4.3 %) and death rate (by 1.1; 95%CI 0.7-1.5 %). Each percent increase in ARBs use was associated with an increase in confirmed case rate by 0.2(0.03-0.4)% and death rate by 0.14(0.08-0.21)%. Conclusions: ARBs, but not ACEIs use rate, is associated with Covid-19 confirmed case rate.

negative: The Second Worldwide Wave of Interest in Coronavirus since the COVID-19 Outbreaks in South Korea, Italy and Iran: A Google Trends Study The recent emergence of a new coronavirus, COVID-19, has gained extensive coverage in public media and global news. As of 24 March 2020, the virus has caused viral pneumonia in tens of thousands of people in Wuhan, China, and thousands of cases in 184 other countries and territories. This study explores the potential use of Google Trends (GT) to monitor worldwide interest in this COVID-19 epidemic. GT was chosen as a source of reverse engineering data, given the interest in the topic. Current data on COVID-19 is retrieved from (GT) using one main search topic: Coronavirus. Geographical settings for GT are worldwide, China, South Korea, Italy and Iran. The reported period is 15 January 2020 to 24 March 2020. The results show that the highest worldwide peak in the first wave of demand for information was on 31 January 2020. After the first peak, the number of new cases reported daily rose for 6 days. A second wave started on 21 February 2020 after the outbreaks were reported in Italy, with the highest peak on 16 March 2020. The second wave is six times as big as the first wave. The number of new cases reported daily is rising day by day. This short communication gives a brief introduction to how the demand for information on coronavirus epidemic is reported through GT.

negative: Correlation between universal BCG vaccination policy and reduced morbidity and mortality for COVID-19: an epidemiological study COVID-19 has spread to most countries in the world. Puzzlingly, the impact of the disease is different in different countries. These differences are attributed to differences in cultural norms, mitigation efforts, and health infrastructure. Here we propose that national differences in COVID-19 impact could be partially explained by the different national policies respect to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) childhood vaccination. BCG vaccination has been reported to offer broad protection to respiratory infections. We compared large number of countries BCG vaccination policies with the morbidity and mortality for COVID-19. We found that countries without universal policies of BCG vaccination (Italy, Nederland, USA) have been more severely affected compared to countries with universal and long-standing BCG policies. Countries that have a late start of universal BCG policy (Iran, 1984) had high mortality, consistent with the idea that BCG protects the vaccinated elderly population. We also found that BCG vaccination also reduced the number of reported COVID-19 cases in a country. The combination of reduced morbidity and mortality makes BCG vaccination a potential new tool in the fight against COVID-19.

negative: Time for an ecosystem approach to public health? Lessons from two infectious disease outbreaks in Canada. Ecosystem approaches recognize the complexity of many contemporary public health challenges and offer an alternative for dealing with problems that have proven intractable and unresponsive to conventional public health strategies. Infectious disease outbreaks are among the most dramatic aspects of systems failure, and the Canadian cases of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in Toronto, and the E. coli outbreak in Walkerton, serve as useful illustrative examples. This paper examines some of the limitations of current public health approaches, the fundamental tenets of an alternative, transdisciplinary ecosystem approach, and changes necessary for implementation, including those in philosophical approach, communications and education, and, finally, institutions and governance.

negative: Extracorporeal lung support for patients who had severe respiratory failure secondary to influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection in Canada BACKGROUND: From March to July 2009, influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (H1N1-2009) virus emerged as a major cause of respiratory failure that required mechanical ventilation. A small proportion of patients who had this condition developed severe respiratory failure that was unresponsive to conventional therapeutic interventions. In this report, we describe characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of critically ill patients in Canada who had H1N1-2009 infection and were treated with extracorporeal lung support (ECLS). METHODS: We report the findings of a case series of six patients supported with ECLS who were included in a cohort study of critically ill patients with confirmed H1N1-2009 infection. The patients were treated in Canadian adult and pediatric intensive care units (ICUs) from April 16, 2009 to August 12, 2009. We describe the nested sample treated with ECLS and compare it with the larger sample. RESULTS: During the study period, 168 patients in Canada were admitted to ICUs for severe respiratory failure due to confirmed H1N1-2009 infection. Due to profound hypoxemia unresponsive to conventional therapeutic interventions, six (3.6%) of these patients were treated with ECLS in four ICUs. Four patients were treated with veno-venous pump-driven extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (vv-ECMO), and two patients were treated with pumpless lung assist (NovaLung iLA). The mean duration of support was 15 days. Four of the six patients survived (66.6%), one of the surviving patients was supported with iLA and the other three surviving patients were supported with ECMO. The two deaths were due to multiorgan failure, which occurred while the patients were on ECLS. INTERPRETATION: Extracorporeal lung support may be an effective treatment for patients who have H1N1-2009 infection and refractory hypoxemia. Survival of these patients treated with ECLS is similar to that reported for patients who have acute respiratory distress syndrome of other etiologies and are treated with ECMO.

negative: A recombinant single chain antibody neutralizes coronavirus infectivity but only slightly delays lethal infection of mice The variable region genes of a murine anti‐coronavirus monoclonal antibody (mAb) were joined by assembly polymerase chain reaction and expressed in Escherichia coli in a single chain variable fragment (scFv) configuration. After induction of expression, the expected 32‐kDa protein was identified by Western immunoblotting with specific rabbit anti‐idiotype antibodies. The scFv fragments were purified from soluble cytoplasmic preparations by affinity chromatography on nickel agarose, which was possible with an N‐terminal but not with a C‐terminal histidine tag. Purified scFv fragments retained the antigen‐binding properties of the parental antibody, could inhibit its binding to viral antigens with apparently higher efficiency than monovalent antigen‐binding (Fab) fragments, but neutralized viral infectivity with lower efficiency (about sevenfold at a molar level). To evaluate the usefulness of these smaller and less immunogenic molecules in the treatment of viral diseases, mice were treated with purified recombinant scFv fragments and challenged with a lethal viral dose. A small delay in mortality was observed for the scFv‐treated animals. Therefore, even though the scFv could neutralize viral infectivity in vitro, the same quantity of fragments that partially protected mice in the form of Fab only slightly delayed virus‐induced lethality when injected as scFv fragments, probably because of a much faster in vivo clearance: the biologic half‐life was estimated to be about 6 min. Since a scFv derived from a highly neutralizing and protective mAb is only marginally effective in the passive protection of mice from lethal viral infection, the use of such reagents for viral immunotherapy will require strategies to overcome stability limitations.

negative: Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus ORF3 gene prolongs S-phase, facilitates formation of vesicles and promotes the proliferation of attenuated PEDV Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is a porcine enteropathogenic coronavirus that has received increasing attention since the emergence of a PEDV variant worldwide. Previous studies have shown that PEDV ORF3 encodes an ion channel protein. However, its influence on cell cycle and subcellular structure still require more research. In this study, we developed a Vero cell line that stably expresses PEDV ORF3 gene. Subcellular localization and influences of PEDV ORF3 on host cells were investigated. We further verified whether or not this gene enhances virus production. The results showed that PEDV ORF3 protein localizes in the cytoplasm and affects cell cycle progression by prolonging the S phase. In addition, the ORF3-expressing Vero cells had more vesicles than the host Vero cells. Furthermore, the attenuated PEDV rather than virulent PEDV could grow better in ORF3-expressing Vero cells. The expression level of the PEDV nucleocapsid protein also increased. These results provided information on the function of PEDV ORF3 and were helpful in understanding the mechanisms of PEDV replication. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11262-015-1257-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Predictions, role of interventions and effects of a historic national lockdown in India's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: data science call to arms Importance: India has taken strong and early public health measures for arresting the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. With only 536 COVID-19 cases and 11 fatalities, India - a democracy of 1.34 billion people - took the historic decision of a 21-day national lockdown on March 25. The lockdown was further extended to May 3, soon after the analysis of this paper was completed. Objective: To study the short- and long-term impact of an initial 21-day lockdown on the total number of COVID-19 cases in India compared to other less severe non-pharmaceutical interventions using epidemiological forecasting models and Bayesian estimation algorithms; to compare effects of hypothetical durations of lockdown from an epidemiological perspective; to study alternative explanations for slower growth rate of the virus outbreak in India, including exploring the association of the number of cases and average monthly temperature; and finally, to outline the pivotal role of reliable and transparent data, reproducible data science methods, tools and products as we reopen the country and prepare for a post lock-down phase of the pandemic. Design, Setting, and Participants: We use the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, of recovered and of deaths from March 1 until April 7, 2020 from the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering (JHU CSSE). Additionally, we use COVID-19 incidence counts data from Kaggle and the monthly average temperature of major cities across the world from Wikipedia. Main Outcome and Measures: The current time-series data on daily proportions of cases and removed (recovered and death combined) from India are analyzed using an extended version of the standard SIR (susceptible, infected, and removed) model. The eSIR model incorporates time-varying transmission rates that help us predict the effect of lockdown compared to other hypothetical interventions on the number of cases at future time points. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation of this model provided predicted proportions of the cases at future time points along with credible intervals (CI). Results: Our predicted cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in India on April 30 assuming a 1-week delay in people's adherence to a 21-day lockdown (March 25 - April 14) and a gradual, moderate resumption of daily activities after April 14 is 9,181 with upper 95% CI of 72,245. In comparison, the predicted cumulative number of cases under "no intervention" and "social distancing and travel bans without lockdown" are 358 thousand and 46 thousand (upper 95% CI of nearly 2.3 million and 0.3 million) respectively. An effective lockdown can prevent roughly 343 thousand (upper 95% CI 1.8 million) and 2.4 million (upper 95% CI 38.4 million) COVID-19 cases nationwide compared to social distancing alone by May 15 and June 15, respectively. When comparing a 21-day lockdown with a hypothetical lockdown of longer duration, we find that 28-, 42-, and 56-day lockdowns can approximately prevent 238 thousand (upper 95% CI 2.3 million), 622 thousand (upper 95% CI 4.3 million), 781 thousand (upper 95% CI 4.6 million) cases by June 15, respectively. We find some suggestive evidence that the COVID-19 incidence rates worldwide are negatively associated with temperature in a crude unadjusted analysis with Pearson correlation estimates [95% confidence interval] between average monthly temperature and total monthly incidence around the world being -0.185 [-0.548, 0.236] for January, -0.110 [-0.362, 0.157] for February, and -0.173 [-0.314, -0.026] for March. Conclusions and Relevance: The lockdown, if implemented correctly in the end, has a high chance of reducing the total number of COVID-19 cases in the short term, and buy India invaluable time to prepare its healthcare and disease monitoring system. Our analysis shows we need to have some measures of suppression in place after the lockdown for the best outcome. We cannot heavily rely on the hypothetical prevention governed by meteorological factors such as temperature based on current evidence. From an epidemiological perspective, a longer lockdown between 42-56 days is preferable. However, the lockdown comes at a tremendous price to social and economic health through a contagion process not dissimilar to that of the coronavirus itself. Data can play a defining role as we design post-lockdown testing, reopening and resource allocation strategies. Software: Our contribution to data science includes an interactive and dynamic app (covind19.org) with short- and long-term projections updated daily that can help inform policy and practice related to COVID-19 in India. Anyone can visualize the observed data for India and create predictions under hypothetical scenarios with quantification of uncertainties. We make our prediction codes freely available (https://github.com/umich-cphds/cov-ind-19) for reproducible science and for other COVID-19 affected countries to use them for their prediction and data visualization work.

negative: Current data on the cardiovascular effects of the COVID-19

negative: Novel Coronavirus COVID-19: Current Evidence and Evolving Strategies COVID-19 is a global pandemic that has currently infected >300,000 globally. Fever and cough are the most common symptoms of the disease, and it is important to remember that the virus can even be transmitted by individuals who test positive for the disease but do not have any symptoms. Currently reported mortality rates vary because of the rapid spread of the disease and different approaches to calculating this estimate, but it is clear that the risk of death is associated with age and the presence of underlying conditions. Risk mitigation techniques (i.e., hand washing, social distancing, and self-isolation) have already been emphasized across major news outlets. It is essential that we continue these practices, as the outbreak is currently expected to last for many more months and we must be mindful of the lessons learned from past pandemics to prevent a second wave from occurring.

negative: Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran The growth and development of Covid-19 transmission have significantly cut the attention of many societies, particularly Iran that has been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In the present study, the known SIR model was used for the dynamics of an epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran statistical data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data of Iran. The results offered many important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time, and other characteristics.

negative: Building resilience against biological hazards and pandemics: COVID-19 and its implications for the Sendai Framework Abstract 2020 has become the year of coping with COVID-19. This year was to be the “super year” for sustainability, a year of strengthening global actions to accelerate the transformations required for achieving the 2030 agenda. We argue that 2020 can and must be a year of both. Thus we call for more utilisation of the health-emergency disaster risk management (Health-EDRM) framework to complement current responses to COVID-19 and the patent risk of similar phenomena in the future. To make our case, we examine current responses to COVID-19 and their implications for the SFDRR. We argue that current mechanisms and strategies for disaster resilience, as outlined in the SFDRR, can enhance responses to epidemics or global pandemics such as COVID-19. In this regard, we make several general and DRR-specific recommendations. These recommendations concern knowledge and science provision in understanding disaster and health-related emergency risks, the extension of disaster risk governance to manage both disaster risks and potential health-emergencies, particularly for humanitarian coordination aspects; and the strengthening of community-level preparedness and response.

negative: Emergency Radiology During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Canadian Association of Radiologists Recommendations for Practice Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the disease caused by the novel coronavirus officially named the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic presents an unprecedented challenge to emergency radiology practice. The continuity of an effective emergency imaging service for both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients is essential, while adhering to best infection control practices. Under the direction of the Board of the Canadian Association of Radiologists, this general guidance document has been synthesized by collaborative consensus of a group of emergency radiologists. These recommendations aim to assist radiologists involved in emergency diagnostic imaging to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and continue to add value to patient care in the emergency setting.

negative: Tackling the Burden of Neurological Diseases in Canada with Virtual Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond

negative: Therapeutic strategies for critically ill patients with COVID-19 Since the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak originated from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, at the end of 2019, it has become a clinical threat to the general population worldwide. Among people infected with the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), the intensive management of the critically ill patients in intensive care unit (ICU) needs substantial medical resource. In the present article, we have summarized the promising drugs, adjunctive agents, respiratory supportive strategies, as well as circulation management, multiple organ function monitoring and appropriate nutritional strategies for the treatment of COVID-19 in the ICU based on the previous experience of treating other viral infections and influenza. These treatments are referable before the vaccine and specific drugs are available for COVID-19.

negative: Case- fatality rate in COVID- 19 patients: A meta-analysis of publicly accessible database A novel coronavirus was reported in Wuhan, China in December 2019 to cause severe acute respiratory symptoms (COVID- 19). In this meta-analysis, we estimated case fatality rate from COVID- 19 infection by random effect meta-analysis model with country level data. Publicly accessible web database WorldOMeter (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) was accessed on 24th March 2020 GMT and reported total number of cases, total death, active cases and seriously ill/ critically ill patients were retrieved. Primary outcome of this meta-analysis was case fatality rate defined by total number of deaths divided by total number of diagnosed cases. Pooled case fatality rate (95% CI) was 1.78 (1.34- 2.22) %. Between country heterogeneity was 0.018 (p<0.0001). Pooled estimate of composite poor outcome (95% CI) was 4.06 (3.24- 4.88) % at that point of time after exclusion of countries reported small number of cases. Pooled mortality rate (95% CI) was 33.97 (27.44- 40.49) % amongst closed cases (where patients have recovered or died) with. Meta regression analysis identified statistically significant association between health expenditure and mortality amongst closed cases (p=0.037).

negative: Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e. across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro=4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro=2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed for assessing health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 49 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19. Current optimistic projections place mortality figures in the USA in the range of 100,000 fatalities. For fatalities to be confined to 100,000 requires a reduction in Ro from 4.5 to 2.7 within 17 days of first infection assuming a mortality rate of 3.4%.

negative: Amid COVID-19: the importance of developing an positive adverse drug reaction (ADR) and medical device incident (MDI) reporting culture for Global Health and public safety Amid COVID-19 Crisis, reporting adverse drug reactions (ADRs) and medical device incidents (MDIs) to Health Canada or health authorities in every country is crucial for monitoring medication safety and improving public health. Health Canada, for example, through their online database, has facilitated the process of reporting side effects relating to drugs and medical devices. However, several patients and health care professionals still fail to voluntarily report adverse events. For health care providers, some barriers to reporting may include fear of negative feedback, apathy, legal concerns, and uncertainty about whether an incident qualifies as an ADR. In the current COVID-19 Crisis, it is especially important for health care providers to be diligent about reporting Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs), since misinformation propagated by the media is causing patients to misuse certain medications. We need to shift the current thought process about ADR reporting in order to encourage a positive reporting culture by patients and health care providers.

negative: Tracheotomy in the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)‐CoV‐2 pandemic continues to produce a large number of patients with chronic respiratory failure and ventilator dependence. As such, surgeons will be called upon to perform tracheotomy for a subset of these chronically intubated patients. As seen during the SARS and the SARS‐CoV‐2 outbreaks, aerosol‐generating procedures (AGP) have been associated with higher rates of infection of medical personnel and potential acceleration of viral dissemination throughout the medical center. Therefore, a thoughtful approach to tracheotomy (and other AGPs) is imperative and maintaining traditional management norms may be unsuitable or even potentially harmful. We sought to review the existing evidence informing best practices and then develop straightforward guidelines for tracheotomy during the SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic. This communication is the product of those efforts and is based on national and international experience with the current SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic and the SARS epidemic of 2002/2003.

negative: Disruption of healthcare: Will the COVID pandemic worsen non-COVID outcomes and disease outbreaks?

negative: Air pollution in Ontario, Canada during the COVID-19 State of Emergency Abstract In March of 2020, the province of Ontario declared a State of Emergency (SOE) to reduce the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This disruption to the economy provided an opportunity to measure change in air pollution when the population spends more time at home with fewer trips. Hourly air pollution observations were obtained for fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ozone from the Ontario air monitoring network for 2020 and the previous five years. The analysis is focused on a five-week period during the SOE with a previous five-week period used as a control. Fine particulate matter did not show any significant reductions during the SOE. Ozone concentrations at 12 of the 32 monitors were lower than any of the previous five-years; however, four locations were above average. Average ozone concentrations were 1 ppb lower during the SOE, but this ranged at individual monitors from 1.5 ppb above to 4.2 ppb below long-term conditions. Nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxides demonstrated a reduction across Ontario, and both pollutants displayed their lowest concentrations for 22 of 29 monitors. Individual monitors ranged from 1 ppb (nitrogen dioxide) and 5 ppb (nitrogen oxides) above average to 4.5 (nitrogen dioxide) and 7.1 ppb (nitrogen oxides) below average. Overall, both nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxides demonstrated a reduction across Ontario in response to the COVID-19 SOE, ozone concentrations suggested a possible reduction, and fine particulate matter has not varied from historic concentrations.

negative: Respiratory Viruses in the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit Respiratory viral infections (RVIs) pose a unique challenge for clinicians in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) due to preterm infants’ increased susceptibility to infections (Maitre NL and Williams JV, Res Rep Neonatol. 6:41–49, 2016). RVIs often present with nonspecific symptoms and currently lack effective treatments (Baraldi et al., Ital J Pediatr. 40:65, 2014). Death due to viral bronchiolitis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in developing nations and industrialized nations alike, and patients with bronchiolitis frequently require intensive care and use of mechanical ventilation (Thompson et al., JAMA 289:179–186, 2003). Infants who acquire RVI during their birth hospitalizations have significantly longer length of stay and are more likely to develop chronic respiratory disease, particularly bronchopulmonary dysplasia (Bennett et al., J Pediatr 161:814–818, 2012). Furthermore, infants with RVIs are often placed on empiric antibiotic therapy, which can frustrate antimicrobial stewardship efforts (Bennett et al., J Pediatr 161:814–818, 2012; Cantey et al., Lancet Infect Dis 2016;16:1178–1184). RVIs are also associated with increased costs to both health systems and families due to increased care and lost productivity. In 2016, Zinna et al. (Pediatrics 138:e20161675, 2016) showed that infants with hospital-acquired RVI in the United Kingdom had hospital charges more than double those of uninfected infants. Similarly, the Sentinel-1 Study (Anderson et al., Am J Perinatol 34:51–61, 2017) in the United States demonstrated that each hospitalization for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the most common etiological agent of viral bronchiolitis in children age <1 year, costs more than $55,000, even excluding the additional outpatient visits before and after hospitalization. The goal of this chapter is to address the epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of respiratory viruses in the highly vulnerable patient population in the NICU.

negative: It can be dangerous to take epidemic curves of COVID-19 at face value During an epidemic with a new virus, we depend on modelling to plan the response: but how good are the data? The aim of our work was to better understand the impact of misclassification errors in identification of true cases of COVID-19 on epidemic curves. Data originated from Alberta, Canada (available on 28 May 2020). There is presently no information of sensitivity (Sn) and specificity (Sp) of laboratory tests used in Canada for the causal agent for COVID-19. Therefore, we examined best attainable performance in other jurisdictions and similar viruses. This suggested perfect Sp and Sn 60–95%. We used these values to re-calculate epidemic curves to visualize the potential bias due to imperfect testing. If the sensitivity improved, the observed and adjusted epidemic curves likely fall within 95% confidence intervals of the observed counts. However, bias in shape and peak of the epidemic curves can be pronounced, if sensitivity either degrades or remains poor in the 60–70% range. These issues are minor early in the epidemic, but hundreds of undiagnosed cases are likely later on. It is therefore hazardous to judge progress of the epidemic based on observed epidemic curves unless quality of testing is better understood. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.17269/s41997-020-00367-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: The COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium observational study: Design and rationale of a prospective, international, multicenter, observational study Importance: There is a paucity of data that can be used to guide the management of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Global collaboration offers the best chance of obtaining these data, at scale and in time. In the absence of effective therapies, insights derived from real-time observational data will be a crucial means of improving outcomes. Objective: In response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, a research and data-sharing collaborative has been assembled to harness the cumulative experience of intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. The resulting observational study provides a platform to rapidly disseminate detailed data and insights. Design: The COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium observational study is an international, multicenter, prospective, observational study of patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to ICUs. Setting: This is an evolving, open-ended study that commenced on January 1st, 2020 and currently includes more than 350 sites in over 48 countries. The study enrolls patients at the time of ICU admission and follows them to the time of death, hospital discharge, or 28 days post-ICU admission, whichever occurs last. Participants: All subjects, without age limit, requiring admission to an ICU for SARS-CoV-2 infection, confirmed by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and/or next-generation sequencing or with high clinical suspicion of the infection. Patients admitted to an ICU for any other reason are excluded. Main outcomes and measures: Key data, collected via an electronic case report form devised in collaboration with the ISARIC/SPRINT-SARI networks, include: patient demographic data and risk factors, clinical features, severity of illness and respiratory failure, need for non-invasive and/or mechanical ventilation and/or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), and associated complications, as well as data on adjunctive therapies. Final outcomes of in-hospital death, discharge or continuing admissions at 28 days. Discussion: This large-scale, observational study of COVID-19 in the critically ill will provide rapid international characterization. Open-ended accrual will increase the power to answer hypothesis-led questions over time. Several sub-studies have already been initiated, examining hemostasis, neurological, cardiac, and long-term outcomes.

negative: Prolonged viral shedding in feces of pediatric patients with coronavirus disease 2019 Abstract Objective To determine the dynamic changes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in respiratory and fecal specimens in children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods From January 17, 2020 to February 23, 2020, three paediatric cases of COVID-19 were reported in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment data were collected. Patients were followed up to March 10, 2020, and dynamic profiles of nucleic acid testing results in throat swabs and fecal specimens were closely monitored. Results Clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory tract occurred within two weeks after abatement of fever, whereas viral RNA remained detectable in stools of pediatric patients for longer than 4 weeks. Two children had fecal SARS-CoV-2 undetectable 20 days after throat swabs showing negative, while that of another child lagged behind for 8 days. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 may exist in children's gastrointestinal tract for a longer time than respiratory system. Persistent shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children raises the possibility that the virus might be transmitted through contaminated fomites. Massive efforts should be made at all levels to prevent spreading of the infection among children after reopening of kindergartens and schools.

negative: The AAD COVID-19 Registry: Crowdsourcing Dermatology in the Age of COVID-19

negative: Caring for persons in detention suffering with mental illness during the Covid-19 outbreak

negative: Cardiovascular disease potentially contributes to the progression and poor prognosis of COVID-19 Abstract Background A novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused pneumonia, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), outbroke in Wuhan, China in December 2019, and spread all over the world. Patients with COVID-19 showed huge differences in the hospital stays, progression and prognosis. As reported, the comorbidities may play an important role in COVID-19. Here, we aim to address the role of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the progression and prognosis of COVID-19. Methods 83 confirmed COVID-19 patients were divided into the CVD (n=42) and non-CVD (n=41) group according to their medical history. Medical records information including demographic data, medical history, clinical characteristics, laboratory examinations, chest computed tomography (CT) as well as treatment measures were collected, analyzed and compared between two groups. Results COVID-19 patients with CVD showed: (1) more severe pathological changes in the lung, (2) elevated injury-related enzymes including α-hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HDBH), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT), creatine kinase (CK) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), (3) significantly increased uncontrolled inflammation related markers, such as c-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin (IL)-6, serum ferritin, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and serum amyloid A (SAA), (4) serious hypercoagulable status reflected by increased D-dimer and serum fibrinogen (FIB), and (5) higher mortality, compared to COVID-19 patients without CVD. Conclusions Our data indicated that CVD is a strong risk factor for a rapid progression and bad prognosis of COVID-19. More intensive medical care should be applied to patients with CVD to prevent rapid deterioration of the disease.

negative: 38th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine: Brussels, Belgium. 20-23 March 2018

negative: A Tale of Two Communities: Characterizing Reddit Response to COVID-19 through /r/China_Flu and /r/Coronavirus The COVID-19 pandemic has deeply impacted people's lives around the globe. During the extended lockdowns caused by the pandemic, online communities are crucial for people to access information and share experiences. In particular, two"new"communities have emerged on Reddit: /r/China_flu and /r/Coronavirus. By studying activities and users in these two communities, we provide a characterization of people's responses to COVID-19 on Reddit. First, we find that user activity peaks around March 17, when the World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 as a pandemic. Shortly after that, the activity levels of both communities have been declining week by week. We further illustrate the central role of these two communities in the emergence of COVID-related communities. Second, we study the differences between these two communities. /r/Coronavirus is recommended as the official community for COVID-19 on Reddit, while /r/China_flu adopts a loose moderation practice. As a result, we observe that these two communities are gradually growing apart and more extremism is being found in /r/China_flu. Finally, we examine the spillover effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on user activity across the entire Reddit platform. Our results show significant changes in user activities outside COVID-related communities. In subreddits related to finance, food, and countries/cities, user activity is recovering to the pre-pandemic level in late April and May as countries reopen, but subreddits related to travel and sports remain highly impacted and show lower activity levels than the pre-pandemic period. Our work highlights the strength of Reddit as a source for understanding public reactions to COVID-19 and the importance of content moderation on the Internet during a pandemic.

negative: How Has COVID-19 Affected the Costs of the Surgical Fellowship Interview Process? OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of COVID-19 on the costs of the surgical fellowship interview process. DESIGN: A literature review of the historical costs of surgical fellowship interviews and a summary of how the shift to virtual interviews has unintended positive and negative effects on costs for applicants and training programs. RESULTS: Transitioning fellowship interviews to virtual platforms affects expenditures of finances and time. Each fellowship candidate saves close to $6,000 in interview travel expenses. Applicants require less time off from their residency programs during this critical time of need for frontline healthcare workers. However, applicants miss some of the live aspects of interviewing, and training programs invest more effort upfront altering their interviews to virtual formats. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 public health crisis has had a significant impact on surgical education, including how selection is conducted. Virtual recruitment has the potential for cost savings but should continue to be refined. This is an opportune time to innovate and rethink how to recruit prospective surgical residency and fellowship candidates during the current and forthcoming interview seasons.

negative: Evidence of human bocavirus circulating in children and adults, Cleveland, Ohio Abstract Background Viral respiratory illness is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. The human bocavirus (HBoV) is a recently recognized parvovirus isolated from human respiratory secretions. Objectives To define the clinical and epidemiologic characteristics in adult and pediatric patients with evidence of HBoV. Study design From October 2005 through October 2006, we screened respiratory samples from children and adults negative for common respiratory pathogens for HBoV by PCR. Demographic and clinical characteristics were obtained from medical records of HBoV positive individuals. Results Of 2075 samples screened, 1826 (88.0%) represented distinct respiratory events: 1539 (84.3%) were pediatric (<18 years), and 273 (15.0%) adult (≥18 years). Forty (2.2%) patients had HBoV: 36 (2.3%) children and 4 (1.5%) adults. HBoV positive children had history of prematurity (31.3%) and cardiac disease (18.8%). Adults had underlying pulmonary (100%) and cardiac (50%) disease. Twenty-seven children (84.4%) were hospitalized; 9 (28.1%) required intensive care. All adults were hospitalized; none required intensive care. Nosocomial acquisition likely occurred in 3 patients. Conclusions HBoV circulates in Cleveland, OH, in children and adults with similar frequencies, and can warrant hospitalization and intensive care. Further study would clarify our understanding of this newly recognized human pathogen.

negative: Cardiovascular Diseases and COVID-19 Mortality and Intensive Care Unit Admission: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Importance: On 11th March, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic of COVID-19. There are over 1 million cases around the world with this disease and it continues to raise. Studies on COVID-19 patients have reported high rate of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among them and patients with CVD had higher mortality rate. Objectives: Since there were controversies between different studies about CVD burden in COVID-19 patients, we aimed to study cardiovascular disease burden among COVID-19 patients using a systematic review and meta-analysis. Data Sources: We have systematically searched databases including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Scopus, Web of Science as well as medRxiv pre-print database. Hand searched was also conducted in journal websites and Google Scholar. Study Selection: Studies reported cardiovascular disease among hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients with mortality or ICU admission (primary outcomes) were included into meta-analysis. In addition, all of studies which reported any cardiovascular implication were included for descriptive meta-analysis. Cohort studies, case-control, cross-sectional, case-cohort and case series studies included into the study. Finally, 16 studies met the inclusion criteria for primary outcome and 59 studies for descriptive outcome. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Two investigators have independently evaluated quality of publications and extracted data from included papers. In case of disagreement a supervisor solved the issue and made the final decision. Quality assessment of studies was done using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale tool. Heterogeneity was assessed using I-squared test and in case of high heterogeneity (>%50) random effect model was used. Main Outcomes and Measures: Meta-analyses were carried out for Odds Ratio (OR) of mortality and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission for different CVDs and Standardized Mean Difference (SMD) was calculated for Cardiac Troponin I. We have also performed a descriptive meta-analysis on different CVDs. Results: Sixteen papers including 3473 patients entered into meta-analysis for ICU admission and mortality outcome and fifty-nine papers including 9509 patients for descriptive outcomes. Results of meta-analysis indicated that acute cardiac injury, (OR: 15.94, 95% CI 2.31-110.14), hypertension (OR: 1.92, 95% CI 1.92-2.74), heart Failure (OR: 11.73, 95% CI 5.17-26.60), other cardiovascular disease (OR: 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.24) and overall CVDs (OR: 3.37, 95% CI 2.06-5.52) were significantly associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients. Arrhythmia (OR: 22.17, 95%CI 4.47-110.04), acute cardiac injury (OR: 19.83, 95%CI 7.85-50.13), coronary heart disease (OR: 4.19, 95%CI 1.27-13.80), cardiovascular disease (OR: 4.17, 95%CI 2.52-6.88) and hypertension (OR: 2.69, 95%CI 1.55-4.67) were also significantly associated with ICU admission in COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Our findings showed a high burden of CVDs among COVID-19 patients which was significantly associated with mortality and ICU admission. Proper management of CVD patients with COVID-19 and monitoring COVID-19 patients for acute cardiac conditions is highly recommended to prevent mortality and critical situations.

negative: Adjunct immunotherapies for the management of severely ill COVID-19 patients Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It has infected millions with more than 181,000 fatal cases as of 22nd April 2020. Currently, there are no specific COVID-19 therapies. Most patients depend on mechanical ventilation. Current COVID-19 data clearly highlight that cytokine storm and activated immune cell migration to the lungs characterize the early immune response to COVID-19 that causes severe lung damage and development of acute respiratory distress syndrome. In view of uncertainty associated with immunosuppressive treatments such as corticosteroids and their possible secondary effects, including risks of secondary infections, we suggest immunotherapies as an adjunct therapy in severe COVID-19 cases. Such immunotherapies based on inflammatory cytokine neutralization, immunomodulation and passive viral neutralization, not only reduce inflammation, inflammation-associated lung damage, or viral load, but could also prevent intensive care unit hospitalization and dependency on mechanical ventilation both of which are limited resources.

negative: Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology/Canadian Association of Radiologists Consensus Statement Regarding Chest Imaging in Suspected and Confirmed COVID-19 On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared infection related to a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) a pandemic. The role and impact of imaging predates this declaration and continues to change rapidly. This article is a consensus statement provided by the Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology and the Canadian Association of Radiologists outlining the role of imaging in COVID-19 patients. The objectives are to answer key questions related to COVID-19 imaging of the chest and provide guidance for radiologists who are interpreting such studies during this pandemic. The role of chest radiography (CXR), computed tomography (CT), and lung ultrasound is discussed. This document attempts to answer key questions for the imager when dealing with this crisis, such as "When is CXR appropriate in patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection?" or "How should a radiologist deal with incidental findings of COVID-19 on CT of the chest done for other indications?" This article also provides recommended reporting structure for CXR and CT, breaking diagnostic possibilities for both CXR and CT into 3 categories: typical, nonspecific, and negative based on imaging findings with representative images provided. Proposed reporting language is also outlined based on this structure. As our understanding of this pandemic evolves, our appreciation for how imaging fits into the workup of patients during this unprecedented time evolves as well. Although this consensus statement was written using the most recent literature, it is important to maintain an open mind as new information continues to surface.

negative: A comprehensive Chinese experience against SARS-CoV-2 in ophthalmology The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has now swept through the continents and poses a global threat to public health. Several investigations have been conducted to identify whether COVID-19 can be transmitted through the ocular route, and the conclusion is that it is a potential route but remains uncertain. Due to the face-to-face communication with patients, frequent exposure to tears and ocular discharge, and the unavoidable use of equipment which requires close proximity, ophthalmologists carry a high risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Based on 33 articles published by Chinese scholars, guidelines and clinical practice experience in domestic hospitals, we have summarized the Chinese experience through the lens of ophthalmology, hoping to make a contribution to protecting ophthalmologists and patients around the world.

negative: Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among children visiting a hospital during the initial Seattle outbreak Children are strikingly underrepresented in COVID-19 case counts. In the United States, children represent 22% of the population but only 1.7% of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases. One possibility is that symptom-based viral testing is less likely to identify infected children, since they often experience milder disease than adults. To better assess the frequency of pediatric SARS-CoV-2 infection, we serologically screened 1,775 residual samples from Seattle Children's Hospital collected from 1,076 children seeking medical care during March and April of 2020. Only one child was seropositive in March, but nine were seropositive in April for a period seroprevalence of >1%. Most seropositive children (8/10) were not suspected of having had COVID-19. The sera of most seropositive children had neutralizing activity, including one that neutralized at a dilution >1:18,000. Therefore, among children seeking medical care, the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 infection increased markedly during the early Seattle outbreak despite few positive viral tests.

negative: Preliminary data on outcomes of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection in a Spanish single center cohort of kidney recipients Since the first cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) were identified on December 12th , 2019, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection has dramatically spread worldwide becoming a pandemic with devastating consequences1 . This exponential increase in COVID-19 cases also includes vulnerable populations such as kidney recipients2,3 . Although scarce, preliminary information in this population suggests a serious course with a mortality of up to 25%4 . Herein, we report the outcomes of a cohort of 33 kidney transplant recipients from a single center focusing on hospital and intensive care (ICU) admission and mortality.

negative: On the frontline against COVID-19: Community pharmacists’ contribution during a public health crisis The global spread of COVID-19 is placing unprecedented demands on healthcare services. In this time of crisis, innovative and adaptive methods of practising will be required across all health professions. In order to maximise the use of current available resources, it is vital that existing services are comprehensively reviewed and full use is made of any unrealised potential among healthcare providers. Community pharmacy is one of a number of health professions that has a key role to play in responding to the current pandemic. As the scope of community pharmacy practice varies considerably across countries, it is important to examine ways in which the profession can assist with the public health response to COVID-19 and maintaining the continuity of healthcare services. This article seeks to highlight roles and activities that community pharmacists can undertake to help in relieving pressure on other areas of the health service, such as general practice. This information could help to inform future decisions about the restructuring of existing health services by governments, public health bodies and policy makers in response to public health crises such as COVID-19.

negative: Variant influenza A (H1N1) virus infection in Canada Abstract There has been an increase in influenza A variant detections in the US in recent years. In September 2012, an Ontario resident was diagnosed with influenza A (H1N1) variant infection. The demonstrated cross reactivity with the A(H1N1)pdm09 H1 gene CDC realtime PCR suggests that laboratories that only use the pdm09 H1 gene PCR to confirm this subtype would incorrectly report this variant as a A(H1N1)pdm09 subtype unless they were doing further molecular investigations.

negative: Teaching-practice as a critical bridge for narrowing the research-practice gap Abstract Management researchers and management practitioners increasingly appear to be talking past each other. A solution lies in understanding that interactive management education has an important role to play in bridging this divide, but for some reason this mode of academic exchange is often forgotten. Our paper broadens the stakeholder value perspective to explore how and why the interests of researchers and practitioners have diverged, before going on to present illustrative cases of programs attempting to bridge such differences. Current conditions suggest that the dissonance between different cycle-times of research and practice is not sustainable with the inevitable outcome of a shrinking commons. Generating new knowledge and propagating it rapidly through education and teaching-practice is an important way of disseminating higher-order research and findings. In a world where academic relevance is under threat, enabling academics to better cross such a divide is critical. Marketing-management researchers and teachers ironically have their own challenge of taking what can be a complex theory (the marketing academic equivalent of a “sausage”) and making it “sizzle”.

negative: Surgical wait list management in Canada during a pandemic: many challenges ahead Summary: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a massive impact on waits for elective operations, with tens of thousands of scheduled surgeries being cancelled or postponed across Canada. Provincial governments will likely not only reopen elective surgical capacity when it is deemed safe, but also target new funding to address the backlog of cases. There is a dearth of research on whether the provinces' approaches to managing wait lists are equitable from a patients' needs perspective or if they are associated with patients' perception of outcomes. The surgical cost models used in the past won't be useful to governments and hospital managers. New models based on hospitals' marginal costs, associated with running on weekends or off-hours and social distancing parameters, will be needed. Surgeon input, collaboration and leadership during the strategy development, implementation and management of surgical wait lists postpandemic will be imperative, as these decisions will significantly affect the health and lives of many Canadians.

negative: Monitoring Transmissibility and Mortality of COVID-19 in Europe Abstract Objectives As a global pandemic is inevitable, real-time monitoring of transmission is vital for containing the spread of COVID-19. The main objective was to report real-time effective reproduction numbers (R(t)) case fatality rate (CFR). Methods Data were mainly obtained from WHO website, up to 9 March 2020. R(t) was estimated by exponential growth rate (EG) and time dependent (TD) methods. “R0” package in R was employed to estimate R(t) by fitting the existing epidemic curve. Both naïve CFR (nCFR) and adjust CFR (aCFR) were estimated. Results In EG method, R(t) was 3.27 [3.17-3.38] for Italy, 6.32 [5.72-6.99] for France, 6.07 [5.51-6.69] for Germany, 5.08 [4.51-5.74] for Spain. With TD method, the R value for March 9 was 3.10 [2.21-4.11] for Italy, 6.56 [2.04-12.26] for France, 4.43 [1.83-7.92] for Germany, and 3.95 [0-10.19] for Spain. Conclusions This study provides important findings on an early outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe. Due to the recent rapid increase in new cases of COVID-19, real-time monitoring of the transmissibility and mortality in Spain and France is a priority

negative: Guideline-based Chinese herbal medicine treatment plus standard care for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (G-CHAMPS): evidence from China Abstract Objectives: To assess outcomes in patients who have severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and were treated with either China guideline based Chinese herbal medicines (CHMs) plus standard care or standard care alone. Design: A pilot randomized controlled trial. Setting Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, Wuhan, China Patients: A total of 42 adults with severe COVID-19. Interventions: Participants in the CHM plus standard care group received CHM and standard care, and the control group received standard care alone. Measurements and Main Results: The primary outcome was the change in the disease severity category of COVID-19 after treatment at 7 days. Among 42 participants who were randomized (mean [SD] age 60.43 years [12.69 years]; 21 [50%] were aged [≥] 65 years; and 35 [83%] women, 42 (100%) had data available for the primary outcome. For the primary outcome, one patient from each group died during treatment; the odds of a shift towards death was lower in the CHM plus group than the standard care alone group (common OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.148 to 2.352 P=.454). Three (2 from the CHM plus group and 1 from the standard care alone group) patients progressed from severe to critical illness. After treatment, mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 disease accounted for 18% (5) vs 14% (2), 71% (20) vs 64% (9), and 0% (0) vs 7% (1) of the patients treated with CHM plus standard care vs. standard care alone. Conclusions: For the first time, the G-CHAMPS trial provided valuable information for the national guideline-based CHM treatment for hospitalized patients with severe COVID-19. CHM effects in COVID-19 may be clinically important and warrant further consideration and studies.

negative: Close and ordinary social contacts: How important are they in promoting large-scale contagion? An outstanding problem of interdisciplinary interest is to understand quantitatively the role of social contacts in contagion dynamics. In general, there are two types of contacts: close ones among friends, colleagues and family members, etc., and ordinary contacts from encounters with strangers. Typically, social reinforcement occurs for close contacts. Taking into account both types of contacts, we develop a contact-based model for social contagion. We find that, associated with the spreading dynamics, for random networks there is coexistence of continuous and discontinuous phase transitions, but for heterogeneous networks the transition is continuous. We also find that ordinary contacts play a crucial role in promoting large-scale spreading, and the number of close contacts determines not only the nature of the phase transitions but also the value of the outbreak threshold in random networks. For heterogeneous networks from the real world, the abundance of close contacts affects the epidemic threshold, while its role in facilitating the spreading depends on the adoption threshold assigned to it. We uncover two striking phenomena. First, a strong interplay between ordinary and close contacts is necessary for generating prevalent spreading. In fact, only when there are propagation paths of reasonable length which involve both close and ordinary contacts are large-scale outbreaks of social contagions possible. Second, abundant close contacts in heterogeneous networks promote both outbreak and spreading of the contagion through the transmission channels among the hubs, when both values of the threshold and transmission rate among ordinary contacts are small. We develop a theoretical framework to obtain an analytic understanding of the main findings on random networks, with support from extensive numerical computations. Overall, ordinary contacts facilitate spreading over the entire network, while close contacts determine the way by which outbreaks occur, i.e., through a second- or first-order phase transition. These results provide quantitative insights into how certain social behaviors can emerge and become prevalent, which has potential implications not only to social science but also to economics and political science.

negative: How Has COVID-19 Affected Our Orthopedic Implant Industry Partners? Implications for the Surgeon-Industry Relationship in 2020 and Beyond BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching societal and financial consequences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate how COVID-19 has affected AAHKS industry partners and the surgeon-industry relationship, emphasizing education, resource allocation, and strategic direction for the 2nd half of 2020. METHODS: AAHKS industry partners were contacted to participate in a blinded survey and optional interview with the AAHKS Industry Relations Committee. Based on the results, a group of AAHKS member surgeons with disparate practice types were asked to postulate on how the COVID-19 pandemic has and will affect their practice and relationship with Industry. RESULTS: AAHKS industry partner responses indicated decreased resource allocation for regional, “other national,” and AAHKS annual meetings (67%, 55%, and 30%, respectively). Web-based educational content was expected to increase in 2020 and will likely remain a point of emphasis in 2021 (100% and 70% of responders). For Q3/Q4 2020, a significant emphasis was placed on site of service/outpatient TJA and COVID-19-related safety measures (70% and 90% of responders), as well as increased availability of instrumentation and implants (40% and 60%, respectively). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the orthopedic landscape for the foreseeable future. Survey responses by AAHKS industry partners demonstrate a continued commitment to surgeon education with and increasing shift to a web-based platform. Increased resource allocation for outpatient TJA and COVID-19-related safety measures were significant. Articulating optimal mechanisms to aid industry in supporting surgeons with different practice models to meet demand during the second half of fiscal year 2020 will be critical.

negative: It’s a small world after all: A Canadian resident’s perspective on COVID-19 COVID-19 has infected millions of people, with an estimated total dead in the hundreds of thousands. This has significantly impacted health care, including who is delivering it, how it is delivered, and how it is taught. This article describes challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of a Canadian nuclear medicine resident, including new risks with nuclear imaging, navigating new and sometimes challenging guidelines, as well as working and living within the confines of social distancing.

negative: COVID-19 and Diabetes: Knowledge in Progress Abstract Aims We aimed to briefly review the general characteristics of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and provide a better understanding of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in people with diabetes, and its management. Methods We searched for articles in PubMed and Google Scholar databases till 02 April 2020, with the following keywords: “SARS-CoV-2”, “COVID-19”, “infection”, “pathogenesis”, “incubation period”, “transmission”, “clinical features”, “diagnosis”, “treatment”, “diabetes”, with interposition of the Boolean operator “AND”. Results The clinical spectrum of COVID-19 is heterogeneous, ranging from mild flu-like symptoms to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiple organ failure and death. Older age, diabetes and other comorbidities are reported as significant predictors of morbidity and mortality. Chronic inflammation, increased coagulation activity, immune response impairment, and potential direct pancreatic damage by SARS-CoV-2 might be among the underlying mechanisms of the association between diabetes and COVID-19. No conclusive evidence exists to support the discontinuation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blockers because of COVID-19 in people with diabetes. Caution should be taken to potential hypoglycemic events with the use of chloroquine in these subjects. Patient tailored therapeutic strategies, rigorous glucose monitoring and careful consideration of drug interactions might reduce adverse outcomes. Conclusions Suggestions are made on the possible pathological mechanisms of the relationship between diabetes and COVID-19, and its management. No definite conclusions can be made based on current limited evidence. Further research regarding this relationship and its clinical management is warranted.

negative: Preliminary Estimates of the Prevalence of Selected Underlying Health Conditions Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 — United States, February 12–March 28, 2020 On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic (1). As of March 28, 2020, a total of 571,678 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 26,494 deaths have been reported worldwide (2). Reports from China and Italy suggest that risk factors for severe disease include older age and the presence of at least one of several underlying health conditions (3,4). U.S. older adults, including those aged ≥65 years and particularly those aged ≥85 years, also appear to be at higher risk for severe COVID-19-associated outcomes; however, data describing underlying health conditions among U.S. COVID-19 patients have not yet been reported (5). As of March 28, 2020, U.S. states and territories have reported 122,653 U.S. COVID-19 cases to CDC, including 7,162 (5.8%) for whom data on underlying health conditions and other known risk factors for severe outcomes from respiratory infections were reported. Among these 7,162 cases, 2,692 (37.6%) patients had one or more underlying health condition or risk factor, and 4,470 (62.4%) had none of these conditions reported. The percentage of COVID-19 patients with at least one underlying health condition or risk factor was higher among those requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission (358 of 457, 78%) and those requiring hospitalization without ICU admission (732 of 1,037, 71%) than that among those who were not hospitalized (1,388 of 5,143, 27%). The most commonly reported conditions were diabetes mellitus, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease. These preliminary findings suggest that in the United States, persons with underlying health conditions or other recognized risk factors for severe outcomes from respiratory infections appear to be at a higher risk for severe disease from COVID-19 than are persons without these conditions.

negative: Critically Ill patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico. CONTEXT In March 2009, novel 2009 influenza A(H1N1) was first reported in the southwestern United States and Mexico. The population and health care system in Mexico City experienced the first and greatest early burden of critical illness. OBJECTIVE To describe baseline characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of consecutive critically ill patients in Mexico hospitals that treated the majority of such patients with confirmed, probable, or suspected 2009 influenza A(H1N1). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Observational study of 58 critically ill patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) at 6 hospitals between March 24 and June 1, 2009. Demographic data, symptoms, comorbid conditions, illness progression, treatments, and clinical outcomes were collected using a piloted case report form. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome measure was mortality. Secondary outcomes included rate of 2009 influenza (A)H1N1-related critical illness and mechanical ventilation as well as intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay. RESULTS Critical illness occurred in 58 of 899 patients (6.5%) admitted to the hospital with confirmed, probable, or suspected 2009 influenza (A)H1N1. Patients were young (median, 44.0 [range, 10-83] years); all presented with fever and all but 1 with respiratory symptoms. Few patients had comorbid respiratory disorders, but 21 (36%) were obese. Time from hospital to ICU admission was short (median, 1 day [interquartile range {IQR}, 0-3 days]), and all patients but 2 received mechanical ventilation for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome and refractory hypoxemia (median day 1 ratio of Pao(2) to fraction of inspired oxygen, 83 [IQR, 59-145] mm Hg). By 60 days, 24 patients had died (41.4%; 95% confidence interval, 28.9%-55.0%). Patients who died had greater initial severity of illness, worse hypoxemia, higher creatine kinase levels, higher creatinine levels, and ongoing organ dysfunction. After adjusting for a reduced opportunity of patients dying early to receive neuraminidase inhibitors, neuraminidase inhibitor treatment (vs no treatment) was associated with improved survival (odds ratio, 8.5; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-62.8). CONCLUSION Critical illness from 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico occurred in young individuals, was associated with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome and shock, and had a high case-fatality rate.

negative: Keeping SARS out: an education program for SARS screeners in one Ontario hospital. On March 14, 2003, the Ontario (Canada) Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care alerted healthcare providers about four cases of atypical pneumonia resulting in two deaths within a single family in Toronto, Ontario. These cases were just the first of many that occurred in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, in the months to come. This article describes one community hospital's response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) crisis and the important, although initially overlooked, role of staff development in keeping SARS out of this Ontario hospital.

negative: How to differentiate COVID-19 pneumonia from heart failure with computed tomography at initial medical contact during epidemic period OBJECTIVES To compare chest CT findings in heart failure with those of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. BACKGROUND During epidemic period, chest computed tomography (CT) has been highly recommended for screening patients with suspected COVID-19. However, the comparison of CT imaging between heart failure and COVID-19 pneumonia has not been fully elucidated. METHODS Patients with heart failure (n=12), COVID-19 pneumonia (n=12) and one patient with both diseases were retrospectively enrolled. Clinical information and imaging of chest CT were collected and analyzed. RESULTS There was no difference of ground glass opacity (GGO), consolidation, crazy paving pattern, lobes affected and septal thickening between heart failure and COVID-19 pneumonia. However, less rounded morphology (8.3% vs. 67%, p=0.003), more peribronchovascular thickening (75% vs. 33%, p=0.041) and fissural thickening (33% vs. 0%, p=0.028), less peripheral distribution (33% vs. 92%, p=0.003) were found in heart failure group than that in COVID-19 group. Importantly, there were also more patients with upper pulmonary vein enlargement (75% vs. 8.3%, p=0.001), subpleural effusion and cardiac enlargement in heart failure group than that in COVID-19 group (50% vs. 0%, p=0.005, separately). Besides, more fibrous lesions were found in COVID-19 group although there was no statistical difference (25% vs. 0%, P=0.064) CONCLUSIONS Although there are some overlaps of CT imaging between heart failure and COVID-19, CT is still a useful tool in differentiating COVID-19 pneumonia.

negative: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Community Testing Team in Scotland: A 14-day review, 6 to 20 February 2020 In response to the outbreak of COVID-19, we set up a team to carry out sampling in the community. This enabled individuals to remain in self-isolation in their own homes and to prevent healthcare settings and services from being overwhelmed by admissions for sampling of suspected cases. There is evidence that this is a cost effective, safe and necessary service to complement COVID-19 testing in hospitals.

negative: Approaches to the management of patients in oral and maxillofacial surgery during COVID-19 pandemic Oral and maxillofacial surgery is correlated with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Therefore, the aim of the review is to collect and discuss aspects of the management of patients in oral and maxillofacial surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to save resources and to avoid unnecessary exposure to infected patients, there is the need to schedule interventions depending on their priority. During the peak of the pandemic, no elective surgery should be performed. Even urgent procedures might be postponed if there is a view to recovery of a COVID-19 patient within a few days. Emergency procedures do not allow any delay. Specialties with overlap in therapies should have well defined arrangements among each other concerning the treatment spectra in order to avoid redundancy and loss of resources. Inpatient and outpatient units have to be organized in such a way that the risk of cross-infection among patients is reduced to a minimum. Especially, testing of patients for SARS-CoV-2 is important to detect the infected patients at an early stage. When surgery is performed on COVID-19 patients, adequate personal protective equipment is crucial. There must be negative pressure in the operating room, and aerosol formation must be reduced to a minimum. In order to address the COVID-19 challenge adequately, significant changes in the infrastructure of outpatient units, inpatient units, and operating rooms are needed. In addition, the demands concerning personal protective equipment increase significantly. The major aim is to protect patients as well as the medical staff from unnecessary infection, and to keep the healthcare system running effectively. Therefore, every effort should be taken to make the necessary investments.

negative: A comparison of infection control program resources, activities, and antibiotic resistant organism rates in Canadian acute care hospitals in 1999 and 2005: pre- and post-severe acute respiratory syndrome. INTRODUCTION The Resources for Infection Control in Hospitals (RICH) project assessed infection control programs and rates of antibiotic-resistant organisms (AROs) in Canadian acute care hospitals in 1999. In the meantime, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak and the concern over pandemic influenza have stimulated considerable government and healthcare institutional efforts to improve infection control systems in Canada. METHODS In 2006, a version of the RICH survey similar to the original RICH instrument was mailed to infection control programs in all Canadian acute care hospitals with 80 or more beds. Chi-square, ANOVA, and analysis of covariance analyses tested for differences between the 1999 and 2005 samples for infection control program components and ARO rates. RESULTS 72.3% of Canadian acute care hospitals completed the RICH survey for 1999 and 60.1% for 2005. Hospital size was controlled for in analyses involving AROs and surveillance and control intensity levels. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) rates increased from 1999 to 2005 (F = 9.4, P = 0.003). In 2005, the MRSA rate was 5.2 (SD 6.1) per 1,000 admissions and in 1999 was 2.0 (SD 2.9). Clostridium difficile-associated diarrhea (CDAD) rates, trended up from 1999 to 2005 (F = 2.9, P = 0.09). In 2005, the mean CDAD rate was 4.7 (SD 4.3) and in 1999 it was 3.8 (SD 4.3). The proportion of hospitals that reported having new nosocomial Vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) cases was greater in 2005 than in 1999 (X = 10.5, P = 0.001). In 1999, 34.5% (40 of 116) hospitals reported having new nosocomial VRE cases and in 2005, 61.0% (64 of 105) reported new cases. Surveillance intensity index scores increased from 61.7 (SD 18.5) in 1999 to 68.1 (SD 15.4) in 2005 (F = 4.1, P = 0.04). Control intensity index scores, trended upwards slightly from 60.8 (SD 14.6) in 1999 to 64.1 (12.2) in 2005 (F = 3.2, P = 0.07). ICP full time equivalents (FTEs) per 100 beds increased from 0.5 (SD 0.2) in 1999 to 0.8 (SD 0.3) in 2005 (F = 90.8, P < 0.0001). However, the proportion of ICPs in hospitals certified by the Certification Board of Infection Control (CBIC) decreased from 53% (SD 46) in 1999 to 38% (SD 36) in 2005 (F = 8.7, P = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS Canadian infection control programs in 2005 continued to fall short of expert recommendations for human resources and surveillance and control activities. Meanwhile, Nosocomial MRSA rates more than doubled between 1999 and 2005 and hospitals reporting new nosocomial VRE cases increased 77% over the same period. While investments have been made towards infection control programs in Canadian acute hospitals, the rapid rise in ICP positions has not yet translated into marked improvements in surveillance and control activities. In the face of substantial increases in ARO rates in Canada, continued efforts to train ICPs and support hospital infection control programs are necessary.

negative: Collateral damage: the unforeseen effects of emergency outbreak policies Summary The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome took the province of Ontario, Canada, by surprise. A lack of planning and the decentralised nature of the health-care system meant that disruptive control measures had to be put in place to control the outbreak. Several of the control strategies were difficult to implement and resulted in considerable confusion, fear, and costs. We discuss these difficulties and offer suggestions for improving outbreak planning.

negative: Liver injury during highly pathogenic human coronavirus infections The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐Cov‐2), the pathogen of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19), has posed a serious threat to global public health. The WHO has declared the outbreak of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection an international public health emergency. Lung lesions have been considered as the major damage caused by SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. However, liver injury has also been reported to occur during the course of the disease in severe cases. Similarly, previous studies have shown that liver damage was common in the patients infected by the other two highly pathogenic coronavirus – severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS‐CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV), and associated with the severity of diseases. In this review, the characteristics and mechanism of liver injury caused by SARS‐CoV, MERS‐CoV as well as SARS‐CoV‐2 infection were summarized, which may provide help for further studies on the liver injury of COVID‐19.

negative: Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): A case report and review of treatments RATIONALE: Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) also known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an enveloped, non-segmented positive-sense RNA virus belonging to the beta-coronaviridae family. This virus is known to cause severe bilateral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) which can lead to difficulty breathing requiring mechanical ventilation and intensive care unit management. PATIENT CONCERNS: A 77-year-old female with a history of hypertension and hyperlipidemia who presented as a transfer to our hospital facility with worsening fevers, cough, and respiratory distress. DIAGNOSIS: Chest X-rays revealed bilateral infiltrates worse at the lung bases and CT scan of the chest showed bilateral ground-glass opacities consistent with COVID-19. While our testing revealed a negative COVID-19 result at our institution, the result at a previous hospital returned a positive result. INTERVENTIONS: She was being treated aggressively in the intensive care unit with high dose intravenous ascorbic acid, hydroxychloroquine, and anti-interleukin-6 monoclonal antibody. She also received a loading dose of remdesivir however was unable to complete the course due to organ failure and requirement of vasopressors for hemodynamic stability. OUTCOMES: She remained critically ill and was eventually placed on comfort care as per the family's wishes and passed away. LESSONS: With a rapidly growing death rate and more than 200,000 confirmed cases worldwide, COVID-19 has become a global pandemic and major hit to our healthcare systems. While several companies have already begun vaccine trials and healthcare facilities have been using a wide-range of medications to treat the virus and symptoms, there is not yet an approved medication regimen for COVID-19 infections. The alarming increase in cases per day adds additional pressure to find a cure and decrease the global health burden and mortality rate.

negative: The practice of infection control and applied epidemiology: A historical perspective The United States health care system and patient populations have changed substantially over the past several decades. The practice of infection control also has evolved since the landmark Study on the Efficacy of Nosocomial Infection Control project, and infection control professionals (ICPs) must continue to develop the knowledge and skills necessary to practice infection prevention and control. Practice analyses of infection control conducted between 1982 and 2001 were analyzed to determine changes in practice. These data reflect a 145% increase in infection control activities over a 20-year period. However, resources for infection control and prevention have not kept pace with this increased activity. In addition, the current trend toward mandatory reporting of health care-associated infections (HAIs) among several states will add more tasks for ICPs with limited resources, at the risk of spending less time on prevention and control activities. In keeping with its philosophy of quality health care and responsible public reporting, the Association of Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc, continues to explore the issue of mandatory reporting of HAIs.

negative: Strong evolutionary convergence of receptor-binding protein spike between COVID-19 and SARS-related coronaviruses Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-related coronaviruses (e.g., 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV) are phylogenetically distantly related, but both are capable of infecting human hosts via the same receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, and cause similar clinical and pathological features, suggesting their phenotypic convergence. Yet, the molecular basis that underlies their phenotypic convergence remains unknown. Here, we used a recently developed molecular phyloecological approach to examine the molecular basis leading to their phenotypic convergence. Our genome-level analyses show that the spike protein, which is responsible for receptor binding, has undergone significant Darwinian selection along the branches related to 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV. Further examination shows an unusually high proportion of evolutionary convergent amino acid sites in the receptor binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein between COVID-19 and SARS-related CoV clades, leading to the phylogenetic uniting of their RBD protein sequences. In addition to the spike protein, we also find the evolutionary convergence of its partner protein, ORF3a, suggesting their possible co-evolutionary convergence. Our results demonstrate a strong adaptive evolutionary convergence between COVID-19 and SARS-related CoV, possibly facilitating their adaptation to similar or identical receptors. Finally, it should be noted that many observed bat SARS-like CoVs that have an evolutionary convergent RBD sequence with 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV may be pre-adapted to human host receptor ACE2, and hence would be potential new coronavirus sources to infect humans in the future.

negative: Generating randomized trial evidence to optimize treatment in the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Coronaviruses — drug discovery and therapeutic options In humans, infections with the human coronavirus (HCoV) strains HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-HKU1 usually result in mild, self-limiting upper respiratory tract infections, such as the common cold. By contrast, the CoVs responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which were discovered in Hong Kong, China, in 2003, and in Saudi Arabia in 2012, respectively, have received global attention over the past 12 years owing to their ability to cause community and health-care-associated outbreaks of severe infections in human populations. These two viruses pose major challenges to clinical management because there are no specific antiviral drugs available. In this Review, we summarize the epidemiology, virology, clinical features and current treatment strategies of SARS and MERS, and discuss the discovery and development of new virus-based and host-based therapeutic options for CoV infections. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nrd.2015.37) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Unknown unknowns – COVID-19 and potential global mortality COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently a global pandemic. This paper will attempt to estimate global infection rates and potential resultant mortality in the absence of effective treatment and/or vaccination. Calculations are based on World Health Organisation data from Wuhan in China: 14% of infected cases are severe, 5% require intensive care and 4% die. Estimated infection rates and mortality rates at the level of continents and some individual countries (when these are of sufficient size) are tabulated. This pandemic may cause close to half a billion deaths, i.e. 6% of the global population – and potentially more. At the risk of sounding sensational, but with a sober sense of realism, healthcare risks being plunged into the Middle-Ages if the public do not do their part. Infection cannot occur in the absence of contact. The only way to mitigate these numbers is to apply social distancing and take the standard precautions so frequently reiterated by Public Health: hand washing, avoid touching the face and so on. These measures are crucial as the human cost is going to be unthinkable even in the best-case scenarios that epidemiologists are modelling.

negative: High-Throughput Screening Identifies Inhibitors of the SARS Coronavirus Main Proteinase Abstract The causative agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been identified as a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV. The main proteinase of SARS-CoV, 3CLpro, is an attractive target for therapeutics against SARS owing to its fundamental role in viral replication. We sought to identify novel inhibitors of 3CLpro to advance the development of appropriate therapies in the treatment of SARS. 3CLpro was cloned, expressed, and purified from the Tor2 isolate. A quenched fluorescence resonance energy transfer assay was developed for 3CLpro to screen the proteinase against 50,000 drug-like small molecules on a fully automated system. The primary screen identified 572 hits; through a series of virtual and experimental filters, this number was reduced to five novel small molecules that show potent inhibitory activity (IC50 = 0.5–7 μM) toward SARS-CoV 3CLpro.

negative: Persons Evaluated for 2019 Novel Coronavirus — United States, January 2020 In December 2019, a cluster of cases of pneumonia emerged in Wuhan City in central China's Hubei Province. Genetic sequencing of isolates obtained from patients with pneumonia identified a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the etiology (1). As of February 4, 2020, approximately 20,000 confirmed cases had been identified in China and an additional 159 confirmed cases in 23 other countries, including 11 in the United States (2,3). On January 17, CDC and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Customs and Border Protection began health screenings at U.S. airports to identify ill travelers returning from Wuhan City (4). CDC activated its Emergency Operations Center on January 21 and formalized a process for inquiries regarding persons suspected of having 2019-nCoV infection (2). As of January 31, 2020, CDC had responded to clinical inquiries from public health officials and health care providers to assist in evaluating approximately 650 persons thought to be at risk for 2019-nCoV infection. Guided by CDC criteria for the evaluation of persons under investigation (PUIs) (5), 210 symptomatic persons were tested for 2019-nCoV; among these persons, 148 (70%) had travel-related risk only, 42 (20%) had close contact with an ill laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV patient or PUI, and 18 (9%) had both travel- and contact-related risks. Eleven of these persons had laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Recognizing persons at risk for 2019-nCoV is critical to identifying cases and preventing further transmission. Health care providers should remain vigilant and adhere to recommended infection prevention and control practices when evaluating patients for possible 2019-nCoV infection (6). Providers should consult with their local and state health departments when assessing not only ill travelers from 2019-nCoV-affected countries but also ill persons who have been in close contact with patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in the United States.

negative: Interdisciplinary and Collaborative Approaches Needed to Determine Impact of COVID-19 on Older Adults and Aging: CAG/ACG and CJA/RCV Joint Statement The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent state of public emergency have significantly affected older adults in Canada and worldwide. It is imperative that the gerontological response be efficient and effective. In this statement, the board members of the Canadian Association on Gerontology/L’Association canadienne de gérontologie (CAG/ACG) and the Canadian Journal on Aging/La revue canadienne du vieillissement (CJA/RCV) acknowledge the contributions of CAG/ACG members and CJA/RCV readers. We also profile the complex ways that COVID-19 is affecting older adults, from individual to population levels, and advocate for the adoption of multidisciplinary collaborative teams to bring together different perspectives, areas of expertise, and methods of evaluation in the COVID-19 response.

negative: Barriers to conducting deprescribing in the elderly population amid the COVID-19 pandemic Deprescribing aims to reduce polypharmacy, especially in the elderly population, in order to maintain or improve quality of life, reduce harm from medications, and limit healthcare expenditure. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease that has led to a pandemic and has changed the lives many throughout the world. The mode of transmission of this virus is from person to person through the transfer of respiratory droplets. Therefore, non-essential healthcare services involving direct patient interactions, including deprescribing, has been on hiatus to reduce spread. Barriers to deprescribing before the pandemic include patient and system related factors, such as resistance to change, patient's knowledge deficit about deprescribing, lack of alternatives for treatment of disease, uncoordinated delivery of health services, prescriber's attitudes and/or experience, limited availability of guidelines for deprescribing, and lack of evidence on preventative therapy. Some of these barriers can be mitigated by using the following interventions:patient education, prioritization of non-pharmacological therapy, incorporation of electronic health record (EHR), continuous prescriber education, and development of research studies on deprescribing. Currently, deprescribing cannot be delivered through in person interactions, so virtual care is a reasonable alternative format. The full incorporation of EHR throughout Canada can add to the success of this strategy. However, there are several challenges of conducting deprescribing virtually in the elderly population. These challenges include, but are not limited, to their inability to use technology, lack of literacy, lack of assistance from others, greater propensity for withdrawal effects, and increased risk of severe consequences, if hospitalized. Virtual care is the future of healthcare and in order to retain the benefits of deprescribing, additional initiatives should be in place to address the challenges that elderly patients may experience in accessing deprescribing virtually. These initiatives should involve teaching elderly patients how to use technology to access health services and with technical support in place to address any concerns.

negative: Potential implications of COVID‐19 on the Canadian pork industry Canada and the US have strong economic ties and form part of an integrated North American pork industry. Canada's pork industry is export‐oriented, and the US represents a key market for both live pigs and pork. Pork value chain stakeholders include input suppliers, pig producers, transportation companies, slaughter plants, wholesalers, and retailers. There are three overriding areas of concern for the Canadian pork industry with respect to potential impacts of the current pandemic (COVID‐19). The first is Canada/US trade and the ability to continue exporting Canadian live pigs and pork to the US. The second is labour and the impact of potential absenteeism on all sectors of the pork value chain. The third is global trade, because Canada's pork industry relies heavily on exporting pork to markets around the world. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

negative: Hospital-Based HTA and Know4Go at MEDICI in London, Ontario, Canada The majority of healthcare in Canada is universally provided and publicly funded through the provincial government.

negative: The Canadian Association for Interventional Radiology (CAIR) and Canadian Association of Radiologists (CAR) Guidelines for Interventional Radiology Procedures for Patients With Suspected or Confirmed COVID-19. The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is creating significant challenges to the Canadian health system, including the practice of interventional radiology (IR). Interventional radiology will continue to play an important role in patient care, during this crisis. This document serves to guide interventional and general radiologists in safely performing IR procedures on patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, using the best evidence, guidelines and expert recommendations available. These strategies include reviewing procedural indications, development of tactics to minimize cross contamination prior to the intervention, appropriate usage of personal protection equipment according to the type of procedure (along with defining aerosol-generating procedures in IR), along with developing the appropriate work environment during the COVID-19 pandemic. By adopting the policies described, hospitals will protect the interventional radiologists, medical radiation technologists, nurses, ancillary staff, along with patients who benefit from their care.

negative: Community and landscape change in southeast Alaska Abstract Since the early 1970s, social science research has addressed issues concerning the nature and distribution of values and uses associated with natural resources. In part, this research has tried to improve our understanding of interconnections between resource management and social and cultural change on the Tongass National Forest in southeast Alaska. In 1997, scientists at the Pacific Northwest Research Station (PNW) initiated a number of social science studies in response to information gaps identified while developing the Tongass Land Management Plan. Results presented here summarize findings from studies of traditional ecological knowledge, subsistence use of natural resources, tourism trends and the effects of tourism on communities, and social acceptability of alternative timber harvest practices. Management implications are discussed along with suggestions for further study.

negative: Avian Influenza: Recent Epidemiology, Travel-Related Risk, and Management H5N1 influenza continues to smolder in Southeast Asia over the past 5 years, but the emergence of H7N9 in China in 2012 raised concerns for a new avian influenza threat. In contrast with H5N1 with over 650 confirmed cases over 11 years, H7N9 has infected over 450 persons within 2 years. The case fatality rate for H7N9 (35 %) is lower than for H5N1 (60 %) or H10N8 (67 %) but is comparable to that for the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS CoV), another emerging zoonosis with travel-associated importations. Exposure to poultry and fomites are considered the likely sources of infection for H7N9, H5N1, and H10N8, with limited human-to-human transmission in close contacts. Most cases have occurred in local populations of affected countries, and travel-related risk can be mitigated by avoiding exposure. Vaccines, antivirals, and other therapeutics remain in development stage or of modest benefit for dangerous infections carrying high morbidity and mortality.

negative: A cascade of causes that led to the COVID-19 tragedy in Italy and in other European Union countries

negative: CORD-19: The COVID-19 Open Research Dataset The COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19) is a growing resource of scientific papers on COVID-19 and related historical coronavirus research. CORD-19 is designed to facilitate the development of text mining and information retrieval systems over its rich collection of metadata and structured full text papers. Since its release, CORD-19 has been downloaded over 200K times and has served as the basis of many COVID-19 text mining and discovery systems. In this article, we describe the mechanics of dataset construction, highlighting challenges and key design decisions, provide an overview of how CORD-19 has been used, and describe several shared tasks built around the dataset. We hope this resource will continue to bring together the computing community, biomedical experts, and policy makers in the search for effective treatments and management policies for COVID-19.

negative: MERS-CoV: Understanding the Latest Human Coronavirus Threat Human coronaviruses cause both upper and lower respiratory tract infections in humans. In 2012, a sixth human coronavirus (hCoV) was isolated from a patient presenting with severe respiratory illness. The 60-year-old man died as a result of renal and respiratory failure after admission to a hospital in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The aetiological agent was eventually identified as a coronavirus and designated Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). MERS-CoV has now been reported in more than 27 countries across the Middle East, Europe, North Africa and Asia. As of July 2017, 2040 MERS-CoV laboratory confirmed cases, resulting in 712 deaths, were reported globally, with a majority of these cases from the Arabian Peninsula. This review summarises the current understanding of MERS-CoV, with special reference to the (i) genome structure; (ii) clinical features; (iii) diagnosis of infection; and (iv) treatment and vaccine development.

negative: Informational needs assessment of non‐Hodgkin lymphoma survivors and their physicians

negative: Infectious bronchitis corona virus establishes productive infection in avian macrophages interfering with selected antimicrobial functions Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) causes respiratory disease leading to loss of egg and meat production in chickens. Although it is known that macrophage numbers are elevated in the respiratory tract of IBV infected chickens, the role played by macrophages in IBV infection, particularly as a target cell for viral replication, is unknown. In this study, first, we investigated the ability of IBV to establish productive replication in macrophages in lungs and trachea in vivo and in macrophage cell cultures in vitro using two pathogenic IBV strains. Using a double immunofluorescent technique, we observed that both IBV Massachusetts-type 41 (M41) and Connecticut A5968 (Conn A5968) strains replicate in avian macrophages at a low level in vivo. This in vivo observation was substantiated by demonstrating IBV antigens in macrophages following in vitro IBV infection. Further, IBV productive infection in macrophages was confirmed by demonstrating corona viral particles in macrophages and IBV ribonucleic acid (RNA) in culture supernatants. Evaluation of the functions of macrophages following infection of macrophages with IBV M41 and Conn A5968 strains revealed that the production of antimicrobial molecule, nitric oxide (NO) is inhibited. It was also noted that replication of IBV M41 and Conn A5968 strains in macrophages does not interfere with the induction of type 1 IFN activity by macrophages. In conclusion, both M41 and Con A5968 IBV strains infect macrophages in vivo and in vitro resulting productive replications. During the replication of IBV in macrophages, their ability to produce NO can be affected without affecting the ability to induce type 1 IFN activity. Further studies are warranted to uncover the significance of macrophage infection of IBV in the pathogenesis of IBV infection in chickens.

negative: CoroNet: A Deep Neural Network for Detection and Diagnosis of COVID-19 from Chest X-ray Images BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The novel Coronavirus also called COVID-19 originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has now spread across the world. It has so far infected around 1.8 million people and claimed approximately 114698 lives overall. As the number of cases are rapidly increasing, most of the countries are facing shortage of testing kits and resources. The limited quantity of testing kits and increasing number of daily cases encouraged us to come up with a Deep Learning model that can aid radiologists and clinicians in detecting COVID-19 cases using chest X-rays. METHODS: In this study, we propose CoroNet, a Deep Convolutional Neural Network model to automatically detect COVID-19 infection from chest X-ray images. The proposed model is based on Xception architecture pre-trained on ImageNet dataset and trained end-to-end on a dataset prepared by collecting COVID-19 and other chest pneumonia X-ray images from two different publically available databases. RESULTS: CoroNet has been trained and tested on the prepared dataset and the experimental results show that our proposed model achieved an overall accuracy of 89.6%, and more importantly the precision and recall rate for COVID-19 cases are 93% and 98.2% for 4-class cases (COVID vs Pneumonia bacterial vs pneumonia viral vs normal). For 3-class classification (COVID vs Pneumonia vs normal), the proposed model produced a classification accuracy of 95%. The preliminary results of this study look promising which can be further improved as more training data becomes available. CONCLUSION: CoroNet achieved promising results on a small prepared dataset which indicates that given more data, the proposed model can achieve better results with minimum pre-processing of data. Overall, the proposed model substantially advances the current radiology based methodology and during COVID-19 pandemic, it can be very helpful tool for clinical practitioners and radiologists to aid them in diagnosis, quantification and follow-up of COVID-19 cases.

negative: National Institute for the Infectious Diseases “L. Spallanzani”, IRCCS. Recommendations for COVID-19 clinical management On January 9 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the identification, by Chinese Health authorities, of a novel coronavirus, further classified as SARS-CoV-2 responsible of a disease (COVID-19) ranging from asymptomatic cases to severe respiratory involvement. On March 9 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Italy is the second most affected country by COVID-19 infection after China. The “L. Spallanzani” National Institute for the Infectious Diseases, IRCCS, Rome, Italy, has been the first Italian hospital to admit and manage patients affected by COVID-19. Hereby, we show our recommendations for the management of COVID-19 patients, based on very limited clinical evidences; they should be considered as expert opinions, which may be modified according to newly produced literature data.

negative: State Liability for Failure to Control the COVID-19 Epidemic: International and Dutch Law

negative: The influence of organizational jurisdiction, organizational attributes, and training measures on perceptions of public health preparedness in Alberta OBJECTIVES: Recent international events including the H1N1 influenza pandemic and the rising incidence of West Nile Virus throughout North America have brought critical attention to the Canadian public health system and how prepared the system is to respond to various types of contemporary public health threats. The current work assessed the association of organizational jurisdiction, organizational attributes, and training opportunities with three different measures of public health preparedness in the province of Alberta, Canada. METHODS: Organizational representatives involved in the delivery of public health systems completed an online questionnaire that asked about organizational attributes and training opportunities available to employees, their perception of organizational preparedness, and their connections to other organizations in Alberta. RESULTS: Findings revealed that (1) perceived human and material resources preparedness was associated with training opportunities, (2) perceived informational needs was associated with organizational size, and (3) whether an organization exercised their written preparedness plan in 2006 was associated with organizational jurisdiction. CONCLUSIONS: These findings help fill a gap in the literature with respect to identifying how organizational characteristics are associated with different aspects of preparedness. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00038-011-0261-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Resource poor countries ought to focus on early detection and containment of novel corona virus at the point of entry

negative: Oxygen and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia: a comparative analysis of supplemental oxygen policies and health outcomes across 26 countries. Introduction Hypoxia is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in COVID-19. During the COVID-19 pandemic some countries have reduced access to supplemental oxygen (e.g. oxygen rationing), whereas other nations have maintained and even improved access to supplemental oxygen. We examined whether such variation in the access to supplemental oxygen had any bearing on mortality in COVID-19. Methods Three independent investigators searched for, identified and extracted the nationally recommended target oxygen levels for the commencement of oxygen in COVID-19 pneumonia from the 29 worst affected countries. Mortality estimates were calculated from three independent sources. We then applied linear regression analysis to examine for potential association between national targets for the commencement of oxygen and case fatality rates. Results Of the 26 nations included, 15 had employed conservative oxygen strategies to manage COVID-19 pneumonia. Of them, Belgium, France, USA, Canada, China, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Sweden and the UK guidelines advised commencing oxygen when oxygen saturations (SpO2) fell to 91% or less. Target SpO2 ranged from 92% to 95% in the other 16 nations. Linear regression analysis demonstrated a strong inverse correlation between the national target for the commencement of oxygen and national case fatality rates (Spearmans Rho = -0.622, p < 0.001). Conclusion Our study highlights the disparity in oxygen provision for COVID-19 patients between the nations analysed, and indicates such disparity in access to supplemental oxygen may represent a modifiable factor associated with mortality during the pandemic.

negative: The Impact of COVID-19 on Physical Activity Behavior and Well-Being of Canadians A global pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) resulted in restrictions to daily living for Canadians, including social distancing and closure of city and provincial recreation facilities, national parks and playgrounds. The objective of this study was to assess how these preemptive measures impacted physical activity behaviour and well-being of Canadians. An online survey was utilized to measure participant physical activity behavior, nature exposure, well-being and anxiety levels. Results indicate that while 40.5% of inactive individuals became less active, only 22.4% of active individuals became less active. Comparatively, 33% of inactive individuals became more active while 40.3% of active individuals became more active. There were significant differences in well-being outcomes in the inactive population between those who were more active, the same or less active (p < 0.001) but this was not seen in the active population. Inactive participants who spent more time engaged in outdoor physical activity had lower anxiety than those who spent less time in outdoor physical activity. Public health measures differentially affected Canadians who were active and inactive and physical activity was strongly associated with well-being outcomes in inactive individuals. This suggests that health promoting measures directed towards inactive individuals may be essential to improving well-being.

negative: Novel Coronavirus, Old Partisanship: COVID-19 Attitudes and Behaviours in the United States and Canada The novel coronavirus reached the United States and Canada almost at the same time. The first reported American case was January 20, 2020, and in Canada it was January 15, 2020 (Canada, 2020; Holshue et al., 2020). Yet, the response to this crisis has been different in the two countries. In the US, President Donald Trump, prominent Republicans, and conservative media initially dismissed the dangers of COVID-19 (Stecula, 2020). The pandemic became politicized from the early days, and even though Trump and Republicans have walked back many of their initial claims, there continue to be media reports of partisan differences in public opinion shaped by that early response. At the same time, the response in Canada has been mostly characterized by across-the-board partisan consensus among political elites (Merkley et al., 2020).

negative: Estimation of Infection Rate and Prediction of Initial Infected Individuals of COVID-19 We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 for some selected countries after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan City, China. We estimated the infection rate and the initial infected individuals of COVID-19 by using the officially reported data at the early stage of the epidemic for the susceptible (S), infectable (I), quarantined (Q), and the cofirmed recovered (Rk) population model, so called SIQRk model. In the reported data we know the quarantined cases and the recovered cases. We can not know the recovered cases from the asymptomatic cases. In the SIQRk model we can estimated the model parameters and the initial infecting cases (confirmed ans asymtomatic cases) from the data fits. We obtained the infection rate in the range between 0.233 and 0.462, the basic reproduction number Ro in the range between 1.8 and 3.5, and the initial number of infected individuals in the range betwee 10 and 8409 for some selected countries. By using fitting parameters we estimated the maximum time of the infection for Germany when the government are performing the quarantine policy. The disease is undergoing to the calm state about six months after first patients were identified.

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) : l’hypothèse chameau

negative: Indicators of Critical Illness and Predictors of Mortality in COVID-19 Patients COVID-19 is an emerging disease all over the world and spreading at an unpredicted rate, resulting in significant influences on global economies and public health. Clinical, laboratory, and imaging characteristics have been partially described in some observational studies. Not enough systematic reviews on predictors of critical illness and mortality in COVID 19 have been published to date. In this review, we had illustrated the prognostic predictors of COVID-19 by gathering published information on the risk factors related to the outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

negative: Canada, Health System of This article describes how health care, including public health, is financed, organized, and delivered in Canada. Particular attention is paid to recent developments and reforms that have led to greater integration of public health into provincial and regional health-care systems as well as the establishment of the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) at the national level.

negative: Using Business Plan Development as a Capstone Project for MPH Programs in Canada: Validation Through the Student Perspective Master of Public Health (MPH) programs have been developed across Canada as a response to the need for adequately trained individuals to work in the public health sector. Educational institutions that deliver MPH programs have a responsibility to ensure that graduates of their program have the essential knowledge, skills and attitudes to begin a successful career in public health. The Public Health Agency of Canada has created the core competencies for public health to guide the development, delivery and evaluation of MPH programs. In Canada, a capstone project is the recommended method of evaluating the MPH graduate’s ability to demonstrate proficiency in the public health core competencies. A business plan that develops the framework for a public health program is an ideal capstone project currently used in practice within the University of Guelph MPH program. This group assignment incorporates all 36 of the public health core competencies while providing students with a real-world public health experience, and should be considered for inclusion within MPH programs across Canada. Business planning provides students the opportunity to engage in practice-based learning, applying theoretical knowledge to practice. Further, the ability to develop realistic but financially feasible public health problems is an invaluable skill for MPH graduates. As the development of programs becomes more restricted and the continuation of other programs are under constant threat, the ability to develop a sound business plan is a required skill for individuals entering the public health sector, and will ensure students are able to maximize outcomes given tight fiscal budgets and limited resources.

negative: Global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)

negative: Integration of Community Health Teaching in the Undergraduate Medicine Curriculum at the University of Toronto Background In 1999, Determinants of Community Health was introduced at the Faculty of Medicine, University of Toronto. The course spanned all 4 years of the undergraduate curriculum and focused on addressing individual patient and community needs, prevention and population health, and diverse learning contexts. Purpose To demonstrate the value of an integrated, longitudinal approach to the efficiency of delivering a public health curriculum. Design Time-series comparing the curricular change over two periods of time. Setting/participants Undergraduate medical students from 1993 to 2009. Intervention Using a spiral curriculum, the educational materials are integrated across all 4 years, based on the concept of medical decision making in a community context. Main outcome measures This study compares measures of student satisfaction and national rankings of the University of Toronto with the other 16 Canadian medical schools for the “Population Health, Ethical, Legal, and Organizational aspects of the practice of medicine” component of the Medical Council of Canada Qualifying Examination Part 1. Results The University of Toronto has been ranked either first or second place nationally, in comparison to lower rankings in previous years (p<0.02 on the Kruskal–Wallis test). Student ratings indicated the course was comparable to others in the curriculum. Conclusions For the same amount of curricular time, an integrated spiral curriculum for teaching public health appears to be more effective than traditional approaches.

negative: Outbreak of a new coronavirus: what anaesthetists should know

negative: SARS-CoV-2 in the ocular surface of COVID-19 patients The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally, while the routes of transmission of this virus are still controversial. We enrolled 33 patients, without any ocular manifestation, with their ocular surface swabs collected for virus detection. RNA was detected strong positive in samples of both eyes from two patients. Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 may exist in the normal ocular surface of COVID-19 patients, suggesting that this virus might be spread through conjunctival contact.

negative: The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak The role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission poses challenges for control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Study of asymptomatic transmission and implications for surveillance and disease burden are ongoing, but there has been little study of the implications of asymptomatic transmission on dynamics of disease. We use a mathematical framework to evaluate expected effects of asymptomatic transmission on the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases generated by an average primary case in a fully susceptible population) and the fraction of new secondary cases attributable to asymptomatic individuals. If the generation-interval distribution of asymptomatic transmission differs from that of symptomatic transmission, then estimates of the basic reproduction number which do not explicitly account for asymptomatic cases may be systematically biased. Specifically, if asymptomatic cases have a shorter generation interval than symptomatic cases, [Formula: see text] will be over-estimated, and if they have a longer generation interval, [Formula: see text] will be under-estimated. Estimates of the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission during the exponential phase also depend on asymptomatic generation intervals. Our analysis shows that understanding the temporal course of asymptomatic transmission can be important for assessing the importance of this route of transmission, and for disease dynamics. This provides an additional motivation for investigating both the importance and relative duration of asymptomatic transmission.

negative: Globalization of Communicable Diseases Abstract Fueled by globalization and human behavior, communicable diseases pose a serious threat to humankind despite unparalleled technological advances. New viruses and devastating communicable diseases such as Ebola and Zika are emerging; diseases previously considered eradicated such as measles are reemerging, while antibiotic resistance is increasing to dangerously high levels worldwide. Increased human population and accelerated global travel make local outbreaks instant global threats. Researchers are concerned that an avian influenza outbreak could kill many more people when it emerges because of the absence of immunity and human travel interaction patterns. Yet the threat of communicable disease varies by geographic location—where you live matters. This entry examines the spatial patterns of familiar communicable diseases, including the syndemic of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis, as well as new diseases such as Ebola, Zika, and dengue. It highlights the huge potential of mapping communicable disease genotypes while raising the alarm on the urgent need for effective global disease surveillance systems and new tools for fighting communicable diseases. Because communicable diseases do not respect political boundaries, global cooperation is vital to prevent this threat to humankind.

negative: COVID-19: Modelling Local Transmission and Morbidity effects to provide an estimate of overall Relative Healthcare Resource Impact by General Practice Granularity Introduction Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the name given to the 2019 novel coronavirus. COVID-19 is the name given to the disease associated with the virus. SARS-CoV-2 is a new strain of coronavirus that has not been previously identified in humans. Methods Two key factors were analysed which when multiplied together would give an estimate of relative demand on healthcare utilisation. These factors were case incidence and case morbidity. GP Practice data was used as this provided the most geographically granular source of published public population data. To analyse case incidence, the latest values for indicators that could be associated with infection transmission rates were collected from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) and Quality Outcome Framework (QOF) sources. These included population density, % age >16 at fulltime work/education, % age over 60, % BME ethnicity, social deprivation as IMD 2019, Location as latitude/longitude, and patient engagement as % self-confident in their own long term condition management. Average case morbidity was calculated by applying the international mortality Odds Ratio to the local population relevant age and disease prevalences and then summing and dividing by the equivalent national figure. To provide a comparative measure of overall healthcare resource impact, individual GP practice impact scores were compared against the median practice. Results The case incidence regression is a dynamic situation with the significance of specific factors moderating over time as the balance between external infection, community transmission and impact of mitigation measures feeds through to the number of cases. It showed that currently Urban, % Working and age >60 were the strongest determinants of case incidence. The local population comorbidity remains unchanged. The range of relative HC impact was wide with 80% of practices falling between 20%-250% of the national median. Once practice population numbers were included it showed that the top 33% of GP practices supporting 45% of the patient population would require 68% of COVID-19 healthcare resources. The model provides useful information about the relative impact of Covid-19 on healthcare workload at GP practice granularity in all parts of England. Conclusion Covid-19 is impacting on the utilisation of health and social care resources across the country. This model provides a method for predicting relative local levels of disease burden based on defined criteria and thereby providing a method for targeting limited (and perhaps soon to be scarce) care resources to optimise national, regional and local responses to the COVID-19 outbreak.

negative: An Epidemiological Study on COVID-19: A Rapidly Spreading Disease Background The outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) caused a major public health crisis worldwide and challenged healthcare systems across the six continents. The high infectivity of the disease led many governments to adopt strict regulations and measures with the aim of containing its spread. The purpose of this study is to assess the incidence, severity, and territorial expansion of COVID-19. Methods Data from the World Health Organization was screened, and COVID-19 situation reports were extracted from January 21 up till March 14 (inclusive). Our data included the total number of cases, total number of new cases, total number of cured cases, and total number of related deaths. Percentage change of cases over the days of our study were calculated using the Joinpoint regression, with a significance level set at greater than 0.05. Results The total number of COVID-19 cases reached 156,622, with 5,845 subsequent deaths. China, Italy, and Iran have the highest number of cases worldwide. During the first 22 days, the incidence rate of COVID-19 increased significantly to reach 1.81 cases per million persons (p<0.001). That was followed by a significant decrease over the next 11 days (p<0.001) to reach 0.071 cases per million persons. A steady rise then followed, which saw a significant increase in incidence rate to 1.429 cases per million persons (p<0.001). Percentages of death and cured cases varied across the different countries; nevertheless, death percentages have generally been decreasing since the start of the crisis. Conclusion Adopting precautionary regulations such as social isolation, increasing sanitation, and employing strict quarantine measures have proved to be beneficial in containing the virus. Further research needs to be conducted to help discover therapeutic modalities and improve outcomes.

negative: An artificial intelligence-based first-line defence against COVID-19: digitally screening citizens for risks via a chatbot To combat the pandemic of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), numerous governments have established phone hotlines to prescreen potential cases. These hotlines have struggled with the volume of callers, leading to wait times of hours or, even, an inability to contact health authorities. Symptoma is a symptom-to-disease digital health assistant that can differentiate more than 20,000 diseases with an accuracy of more than 90%. We tested the accuracy of Symptoma to identify COVID-19 using a set of diverse clinical cases combined with case reports of COVID-19. We showed that Symptoma can accurately distinguish COVID-19 in 96.32% of clinical cases. When considering only COVID-19 symptoms and risk factors, Symptoma identified 100% of those infected when presented with only three signs. Lastly, we showed that Symptoma’s accuracy far exceeds that of simple “yes-no” questionnaires widely available online. In summary, Symptoma provides unparalleled accuracy in systematically identifying cases of COVID-19 while also considering over 20,000 other diseases. Furthermore, Symptoma allows free text input, furthered with disease-specific follow up questions, in 36 languages. Combined, these results and accessibility give Symptoma the potential to be a key tool in the global fight against COVID-19. The Symptoma predictor is freely available online at https://www.symptoma.com.

negative: Diagnosing COVID-19: The Disease and Tools for Detection [Image: see text] COVID-19 has spread globally since its discovery in Hubei province, China in December 2019. A combination of computed tomography imaging, whole genome sequencing, and electron microscopy were initially used to screen and identify SARS-CoV-2, the viral etiology of COVID-19. The aim of this review article is to inform the audience of diagnostic and surveillance technologies for SARS-CoV-2 and their performance characteristics. We describe point-of-care diagnostics that are on the horizon and encourage academics to advance their technologies beyond conception. Developing plug-and-play diagnostics to manage the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak would be useful in preventing future epidemics.

negative: Potent and selective inhibition of SARS coronavirus replication by aurintricarboxylic acid Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS) is a coronavirus that instigated regional epidemics in Canada and several Asian countries in 2003. The newly identified SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) can be transmitted among humans and cause severe or even fatal illnesses. As preventive vaccine development takes years to complete and adverse reactions have been reported to some veterinary coronaviral vaccines, anti-viral compounds must be relentlessly pursued. In this study, we analyzed the effect of aurintricarboxylic acid (ATA) on SARS-CoV replication in cell culture, and found that ATA could drastically inhibit SARS-CoV replication, with viral production being 1000-fold less than that in the untreated control. Importantly, when compared with IFNs α and β, viral production was inhibited by more than 1000-fold as compared with the untreated control. In addition, when compared with IFNs α and β, ATA was approximately 10 times more potent than IFN α and 100 times more than interferon β at their highest concentrations reported in the literature previously. Our data indicated that ATA should be considered as a candidate anti-SARS compound for future clinical evaluation.

negative: From plan to market in the health sector? China’s experience Abstract Countries worldwide confront the challenge of defining and achieving appropriate roles for government and market forces in the health sector. China—as both a developing and a transitional economy—represents an important case. This paper uses an international comparative perspective to examine how the health of China’s population and other aspects of health system performance changed during the reform era. We draw on standard public finance and health economics theory, as well as the more recent incomplete-contracting theory of property rights, to summarize the comparative advantages of government and market for financing and delivery of health services, particularly in developing and transitional economies. We then describe and analyze against this theoretical background the transformation of China’s health sector and recent commitment of government funds to move toward universal coverage.

negative: Abstracts from the 37th Annual Meeting of the Society of General Internal Medicine

negative: Clinical characteristics of the recovered COVID-19 patients with re-detectable positive RNA test Background It has been reported that several cases recovered from COVID-19 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 after discharge (re-detectable positive, RP), however the clinical characteristics, significance and potential cause of RP patients remained elusive. Methods A total of 262 COVID-19 patients were discharged from January 23 to February 25, 2020, and were enrolled for analysis of their clinical parameters. The RP and non-RP (NRP) patients were grouped according to the disease severity during their hospitalization period. The clinical characterization at re-admission to the hospital was analyzed. SARS-CoV-2 RNA and plasma antibody levels were detected using high-sensitive detection methods. Findings Up to March 10, 2020, all of patients were followed up for at least 14 days, and 38/262 of RP patients (14.5%) were present. The RP patients were characterized by being less than 14-years old and having mild and moderate conditions as compared to NRP patients, while no severe patients became RP. Retrospectively, the RP patients displayed fewer symptoms, more sustained remission of CT imaging and earlier RNA negative-conversion but similar plasma antibody levels during their hospitalization period as compared to those NRP patients. When re-admitted to the hospital, these RP patients showed no obvious clinical symptoms or disease progression indicated by normal or improving CT imaging and inflammatory cytokine levels. All 21 close contacts of RP patients were tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, and no suspicious clinical symptoms were reported. However, 18/24 of RNA-negative samples detected by the commercial kit were tested to be positive for virus RNA using a hyper-sensitive method, suggesting the carrier status of virus possibly existed in patients recovered from COVID-19. Interpretation Our results showed that young and mild COVID-19 patients seem to be RP patients after discharge, who show no obviously clinical symptoms and disease progression upon re-admission. More sensitive RNA detection methods are required to monitor these patients during follow-up. Our findings provide empirical information and evidence for the effective management of COVID-19 patients during their convalescent phase.

negative: Caring for the carers: Ensuring the provision of quality maternity care during a global pandemic Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting health systems worldwide. Maternity care providers must continue their core business in caring and supporting women, newborns and their families whilst also adapting to a rapidly changing health system environment. This article provides an overview of important considerations for supporting the emotional, mental and physical health needs of maternity care providers in the context of the unprecedented crisis that COVID-19 presents. Cooperation, planning ahead and adequate availability of PPE is critical. Thinking about the needs of maternity providers to prevent stress and burnout is essential. Emotional and psychological support needs to be available throughout the response. Prioritising food, rest and exercise are important. Healthcare workers are every country’s most valuable resource and maternity providers need to be supported to provide the best quality care they can to women and newborns in exceptionally trying circumstances.

negative: Viral diarrhea of young animals: A review Abstract A brief presentation is given of the enteric viral infections of young animals. The general characteristics of rotaviruses, coronaviruses and parvoviruses are reported, and the different aspects of the diseases associated with these viruses are discussed. Certain suggestions are made regarding the prevention of these diseases.

negative: Cytokine storm intervention in the early stages of COVID-19 pneumonia Abstract Clinical intervention in patients with corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has demonstrated a strong upregulation of cytokine production in patients who are critically ill with SARS-CoV2-induced pneumonia. In a retrospective study of 41 patients with COVID-19, most patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection developed mild symptoms, whereas some patients later developed aggravated disease symptoms, and eventually passed away because of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), as a consequence of a severe cytokine storm. Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infected pneumonia were first published January 30th, 2020; these guidelines recommended for the first time that cytokine monitoring should be applied in severely ill patients to reduce pneumonia related mortality. The cytokine storm observed in COVID-19 illness is also an important component of mortality in other viral diseases, including SARS, MERS and influenza. In view of the severe morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 pneumonia, we review the current understanding of treatment of human coronavirus infections from the perspective of a dysregulated cytokine and immune response.

negative: The phenotypic changes of Î³Î´ T cells in COVID-19 patients A novel pneumonia-associated respiratory syndrome named coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), which caused by SARS-CoV-2 and broken in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. Unfortunately, there is no specific antiviral agent or vaccine available to treat SARS-CoV-2 infections. Also, information regarding the immunological characteristics in COVID-19 patients remains limited. Here we collected the blood samples from 18 healthy donors (HD) and 38 COVID-19 patients to analyze changes in {gamma}{delta} T cells. In comparison to HD, the {gamma}{delta} T cells percentage was decreased. {gamma}{delta} T cells are able to immediately respond to SARS-CoV-2 infection and upregulate the activation marker CD25. In addition, the increased expression of CD4 in {gamma}{delta} T cells may serve as a biomarker for the assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: What we know Abstract There is a current worldwide outbreak of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 (coronavirus disease 2019; the pathogen called SARS-CoV-2; previously 2019-nCoV), which originated from Wuhan in China and has now spread to 6 continents including 66 countries, as of 24:00 on March 2, 2020. Governments are under increased pressure to stop the outbreak from spiraling into a global health emergency. At this stage, preparedness, transparency, and sharing of information are crucial to risk assessments and beginning outbreak control activities. This information should include reports from outbreak site and from laboratories supporting the investigation. This paper aggregates and consolidates the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, diagnosis, treatments and preventions of this new type of coronavirus.

negative: COVID-19: Challenges to GIS with Big Data Abstract The outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has caused more than 100,000 people infected and thousands of deaths. Currently, the number of infections and deaths is still increasing rapidly. COVID-19 seriously threatens human health, production, life, social functioning and international relations. In the fight against COVID-19, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and big data technologies have played an important role in many aspects, including the rapid aggregation of multi-source big data, rapid visualization of epidemic information, spatial tracking of confirmed cases, prediction of regional transmission, spatial segmentation of the epidemic risk and prevention level, balancing and management of the supply and demand of material resources, and social-emotional guidance and panic elimination, which provided solid spatial information support for decision-making, measures formulation, and effectiveness assessment of COVID-19 prevention and control. GIS has developed and matured relatively quickly and has a complete technological route for data preparation, platform construction, model construction, and map production. However, for the struggle against the widespread epidemic, the main challenge is finding strategies to adjust traditional technical methods and improve speed and accuracy of information provision for social management. At the data level, in the era of big data, data no longer come mainly from the government but are gathered from more diverse enterprises. As a result, the use of GIS faces difficulties in data acquisition and the integration of heterogeneous data, which requires governments, businesses, and academic institutions to jointly promote the formulation of relevant policies. At the technical level, spatial analysis methods for big data are in the ascendancy. Currently and for a long time in the future, the development of GIS should be strengthened to form a data-driven system for rapid knowledge acquisition, which signifies that GIS should be used to reinforce the social operation parameterization of models and methods, especially when providing support for social management.

negative: The current state of COVID-19 in Australia: importation and spread Background: The rapid global spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is unprecedented. The outbreak has quickly spread to more than 100 countries reporting over 100,000 confirmed cases. Australia reported its first case of COVID-19 on 25th January 2020 and has since implemented travel restrictions to stop further introduction of the virus. Methods: We analysed daily global COVID-19 data published by the World Health Organisation to investigate the spread of the virus thus far. To assess the current risk of COVID-19 importation and local spread in Australia we predict international passenger flows into Australia during 2020. Findings: Our analysis of global data shows that Australia can expect a similar growth rate of reported cases as observed in France and the United States. We identify travel patterns of Australian citizens/residents and foreign travellers that can inform the implementation of new and the alteration of existing travel restrictions related to COVID-19. Interpretation: Our findings identify the risk reduction potential of current travel bans, based on the proportion of returning travellers to Australia that are residents or visitors. The similarity of the exponential growth in the epidemic curve in Australia to other countries guides forecasts of COVID-19 growth in Australia, and opportunities for drawing lessons from other countries with more advanced outbreaks.

negative: Public Health in Big Cities: Looking Back, Looking Forward This commentary provides reflections of a public health official on the important role public health departments play in advancing the goals of the larger public health enterprise in big cities, counties, and large metropolitan areas.

negative: Delmarva (DMV/1639) Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV) Variants Isolated in Eastern Canada Show Evidence of Recombination Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) infection in chickens can lead to an economically important disease, namely, infectious bronchitis (IB). New IBV variants are continuously emerging, which complicates vaccination-based IB control. In this study, five IBVs were isolated from clinical samples submitted to a diagnostic laboratory in Ontario, Canada, and subjected to detailed molecular characterization. Analysis of the spike (S)1 gene showed that these five IBVs were highly related to the Delmarva (DMV/1639) strain (~97.0% nucleotide sequence similarity) that was firstly isolated from an IB outbreak in the Delmarva peninsula, United States of America (USA), in 2011. However, the complete genomic sequence analysis showed a 93.5–93.7% similarity with the Connecticut (Conn) vaccine strain, suggesting that Conn-like viruses contributed to the evolution of the five Canadian IBV/DMV isolates. A SimPlot analysis of the complete genomic sequence showed evidence of recombination for at least three different IBV strains, including a Conn vaccine-like strain, a 4/91 vaccine-like strain, and one strain that is yet-unidentified. The unidentified strain may have contributed the genomic regions of the S, 3, and membrane (M) genes of the five Canadian IBV/DMV isolates. The study outcomes add to the existing knowledge about involvement of recombination in IBV evolution.

negative: Behavioral and Emotional Disorders in Children during the COVID-19 Epidemic

negative: Outcome of a public consultation on the Draft Opinion of the EFSA Panel on Dietetic Products, Nutrition, and Allergies (NDA) on a guidance on the scientific requirements for health claims related to gut and immune function

negative: A sporadic COVID-19 pneumonia treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in Tokyo, Japan: A case report Abstract Introduction An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus disease (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) has become a global threat. While clinical reports from China to date demonstrate that the majority of cases remain relatively mild and recover with supportive care, it is also crucial to be well prepared for severe cases warranting intensive care. Initiating appropriate infection control measures may not always be achievable in primary care or in acute-care settings. Case A 45-year-old man was admitted to the intensive care unit due to severe pneumonia, later confirmed as COVID-19. His initial evaluation in the resuscitation room and treatments in the intensive care unit was performed under droplet and contact precaution with additional airborne protection using the N95 respirator mask. He was successfully treated in the intensive care unit with mechanical ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for respiratory support; and antiretroviral treatment with lopinavir/ritonavir. His total intensive care unit stay was 15 days and was discharged on hospital day 24. Conclusions Strict infection control precautions are not always an easy task, especially under urgent care in an intensive care unit. However, severe cases of COVID-19 pneumonia, or another novel infectious disease, could present at any moment and would be a continuing challenge to pursue appropriate measures. We need to be well prepared to secure healthcare workers from exposure to infectious diseases and nosocomial spread, as well as to provide necessary intensive care.

negative: A persistently infecting coronavirus in hibernating Myotis lucifugus, the North American little brown bat Bats are important reservoir hosts for emerging viruses, including coronaviruses that cause diseases in people. Although there have been several studies on the pathogenesis of coronaviruses in humans and surrogate animals, there is little information on the interactions of these viruses with their natural bat hosts. We detected a coronavirus in the intestines of 53/174 hibernating little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus), as well as in the lungs of some of these individuals. Interestingly, the presence of the virus was not accompanied by overt inflammation. Viral RNA amplified from little brown bats in this study appeared to be from two distinct clades. The sequences in clade 1 were very similar to the archived sequence derived from little brown bats and the sequences from clade 2 were more closely related to the archived sequence from big brown bats. This suggests that two closely related coronaviruses may circulate in little brown bats. Sequence variation among coronavirus detected from individual bats suggested that infection occurred prior to hibernation, and that the virus persisted for up to 4 months of hibernation in the laboratory. Based on the sequence of its genome, the coronavirus was placed in the Alphacoronavirus genus, along with some human coronaviruses, bat viruses and the porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus. The detection and identification of an apparently persistent coronavirus in a local bat species creates opportunities to understand the dynamics of coronavirus circulation in bat populations.

negative: The causes and consequences of seasonal variation in COPD exacerbations. The time of year when patients experience exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a much-overlooked feature of the disease. The higher incidence of exacerbations in winter has important consequences for patients in terms of increased morbidity and mortality. The seasonality also imposes a considerable burden on already-overloaded health care services, with both primary care consultations and hospital admissions increasing in number. The seasonality of exacerbations varies with latitude, and is greater in more temperate climates, where there may be less protection from outdoor and indoor cold exposure. The precise causes of the seasonality are unknown, but thought to be partly due to the increased prevalence of respiratory viral infections circulating in cold, damp conditions. Increased susceptibility to viral infection may also be a mechanism mediated through increased airway inflammation or possibly reduced vitamin D levels. The seasonality of exacerbations informs us about the triggers of exacerbations and suggests possible strategies to reduce their number.

negative: The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the utilization of emergency dental services Abstract Background/Purpose To assess how the current COVID-19 epidemic influenced peoples' utilization of emergency dental services in Beijing, China. Methods The first-visit patients seeking emergency dental services before or at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic were retrieved. Their demographic characteristics and the reasons for visiting were recorded and analyzed. Results There were 2,537 patients involved in this study. Thirty-eight percent fewer patients visited the dental urgency at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic than before. The distribution of dental problems has changed significantly. The proportion of dental and oral infection raised from 51.0% of pre-COVID-19 to 71.9% during COVID-19, and dental trauma decreased from 14.2% to 10.5%. Meanwhile, the non-urgency cases reduced to three-tenths of pre-COVID-19. Conclusion Within the limitation of this study, the COVID-19 epidemic had a strong influence on the utilization of emergency dental services.

negative: International Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreak: A Rapid Review BACKGROUND: The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a significant threat to many countries. Since the disease does not currently have a particular treatment, there is a compelling need to find substitute means to dominate its expansion. In this rapid review, we aimed to determine some countries’ public responses to the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: In this study, academic databases, including MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase, were investigated. The keywords applied in the search strategy besides the names of each country were: “Public Health,” “Public Response”, “Health Policy”, “COVID-19”, “Novel Coronavirus,” “2019-nCoV”, and “SARS-CoV-2”. The countries included China, Italy, Iran, Spain, South Korea, Germany, France, United States, Australia, Canada, Japan, and Singapore. RESULTS: The total number of retrieved articles in MEDLINE, Scopus, and Embase in April 2020 was 594, and after removing 259 duplicate articles, 335 papers were screened by the experts. After this investigation, 50 articles, in addition to 12 webpages, were extensively reviewed for the results section. Public health strategies and responses can be divided into four main areas, including monitoring, public education, crowd controlling, and care facilities. CONCLUSION: According to the results of the management decisions of some governments on quarantining, social isolation, screening methods, and flight suspensions due to the severity and anonymity of COVID-19, it is highly assured that these strategies would be the most successful approaches to confront the present pandemic. Governments should put in place timely and strict measures to halt the spread and diminish its unintended deadly consequences.

negative: Re-imagining the future of diagnosis of Neglected Tropical Diseases Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) affect an estimated 1 billion people in 149 countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) prioritised 17 NTDs for control and elimination by 2020 and defined a Road Map to help countries reach these goals. Improved diagnostics for NTDs are essential for guiding treatment strategies at different thresholds of control, interruption of transmission, elimination and post-elimination surveillance. While substantial progress has been made in the last decade with chemotherapy, the same cannot be said of diagnostics, largely due to the perceived lack of a commercially viable market for NTD diagnostics. New sample in-answer out nucleic acid amplification technologies that can be performed at the point-of-care offer improved performance over current technologies and the potential to test for multiple pathogens using a single specimen. Finding commonalities for different NTDs in terms of geographic overlap, sentinel populations and treatment strategy will allow NTD programs to leverage these innovations to build cost-effective multiplex surveillance platforms. Connectivity solutions linking data from diagnostic laboratories and POC test readers/devices provide opportunities for automated surveillance systems to make health systems more efficient, improving patient outcomes and assessing impact of interventions in real time. New models of public–private product development partnerships are critical in leveraging diagnostic innovation in other priority area for better diagnosis, control and elimination of NTDs.

negative: Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change Abstract Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.

negative: Strategy implementation research in hospitality and tourism: Current status and future potential Abstract To achieve their business objectives, hospitality and tourism organizations need effective implementation as well as consistent strategy formulation. However, the implementation aspect of strategy has attracted relatively less scholarly interest than strategic planning despite its critical role in achieving performance outcomes. Consequently, it is timely to provide an in-depth analysis of the strategy implementation literature. This is particularly the case in hospitality and tourism management where comprehensive literature reviews of strategy implementation have been lacking. To address the knowledge gap, the authors conduct a systematic literature review of 139 articles that appeared in 42 journals over the period 1988-2019. The items were grouped into six topic clusters with a view to generating novel research questions that have the potential to advance the field. We identify four main gaps that should be addressed and suggest prospective research directions.

negative: Teaching the Basics: Core Competencies in Global Health Compelling moral, ethical, professional, pedagogical, and economic imperatives support the integration of global health topics within medical school curriculum. Although the process of integrating global health into medical education is well underway at some medical schools, there remain substantial challenges to initiating global health training in others. As global health is a new field, faculties and schools may benefit from resources and guidance to develop global health modules and teaching materials. This article describes the Core Competencies project undertaken by the Global Health Education Consortium and the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada’s Global Health Resource Group.

negative: Sequence analysis of the N, P, M and F genes of Canadian human metapneumovirus strains Abstract The complete nucleotide sequences of the nucleoprotein (N), phosphoprotein (P), matrix protein (M), and fusion protein (F) genes of 15 Canadian human metapneumovirus (hMPV) isolates were determined. Phylogenetic analysis revealed two distinct genetic clusters, or groups for each gene with additional sequence variability within the individual groups. Comparison of the deduced amino acid sequences for the N, M and F genes of the different isolates revealed that all three genes were well conserved with 94.1–97.6% identity between the two distinct clusters The P gene showed more diversity with 81.6–85.7% amino acid identity for isolates between the two clusters, and 94.6–100% for isolates within the same cluster.

negative: Identification of a common deletion in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2 Two notable features have been identified in the SARS-CoV-2 genome: (1) the receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2; (2) a unique insertion of twelve nucleotide or four amino acids (PRRA) at the S1 and S2 boundary. For the first feature, the similar RBD identified in SARs-like virus from pangolin suggests the RBD in SARS-CoV-2 may already exist in animal host(s) before it transmitted into human. The left puzzle is the history and function of the insertion at S1/S2 boundary, which is uniquely identified in SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we identified two variants from the first Guangdong SARS-CoV-2 cell strain, with deletion mutations on polybasic cleavage site (PRRAR) and its flank sites. More extensive screening indicates the deletion at the flank sites of PRRAR could be detected in 3 of 68 clinical samples and half of 22 in vitro isolated viral strains. These data indicate (1) the deletion of QTQTN, at the flank of polybasic cleavage site, is likely benefit the SARS-CoV-2 replication or infection in vitro but under strong purification selection in vivo since it is rarely identified in clinical samples; (2) there could be a very efficient mechanism for deleting this region from viral genome as the variants losing 23585-23599 is commonly detected after two rounds of cell passage. The mechanistic explanation for this in vitro adaptation and in vivo purification processes (or reverse) that led to such genomic changes in SARS-CoV-2 requires further work. Nonetheless, this study has provided valuable clues to aid further investigation of spike protein function and virus evolution. The deletion mutation identified in vitro isolation should be also noted for current vaccine development.

negative: COVID-19 outbreak: Migration, effects on society, global environment and prevention Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is considered as the most crucial global health calamity of the century and the greatest challenge that the humankind faced since the 2nd World War. In December 2019, a new infectious respiratory disease emerged in Wuhan, Hubei province, China and was named by the World Health Organization as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019). A new class of corona virus, known as SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) has been found to be responsible for occurrence of this disease. As far as the history of human civilization is concerned there are instances of severe outbreaks of diseases caused by a number of viruses. According to the report of the World Health Organization (WHO as of April 18 2020), the current outbreak of COVID-19, has affected over 2164111 people and killed more than 146,198 people in more than 200 countries throughout the world. Till now there is no report of any clinically approved antiviral drugs or vaccines that are effective against COVID-19. It has rapidly spread around the world, posing enormous health, economic, environmental and social challenges to the entire human population. The coronavirus outbreak is severely disrupting the global economy. Almost all the nations are struggling to slow down the transmission of the disease by testing & treating patients, quarantining suspected persons through contact tracing, restricting large gatherings, maintaining complete or partial lock down etc. This paper describes the impact of COVID-19 on society and global environment, and the possible ways in which the disease can be controlled has also been discussed therein.

negative: Race, socioeconomic deprivation, and hospitalization for COVID-19 in English participants of a national biobank Preliminary reports suggest that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID− 19) pandemic has led to disproportionate morbidity and mortality among historically disadvantaged populations. We investigate the racial and socioeconomic associations of COVID− 19 hospitalization among 418,794 participants of the UK Biobank, of whom 549 (0.13%) had been hospitalized. Both Black participants (odds ratio 3.7; 95%CI 2.5–5.3) and Asian participants (odds ratio 2.2; 95%CI 1.5–3.2) were at substantially increased risk as compared to White participants. We further observed a striking gradient in COVID− 19 hospitalization rates according to the Townsend Deprivation Index − a composite measure of socioeconomic deprivation − and household income. Adjusting for socioeconomic factors and cardiorespiratory comorbidities led to only modest attenuation of the increased risk in Black participants, adjusted odds ratio 2.4 (95%CI 1.5–3.7). These observations confirm and extend earlier preliminary and lay press reports of higher morbidity in non-White individuals in the context of a large population of participants in a national biobank. The extent to which this increased risk relates to variation in pre-existing comorbidities, differences in testing or hospitalization patterns, or additional disparities in social determinants of health warrants further study.

negative: Dominant LMAN2L mutation causes intellectual disability with remitting epilepsy Mis‐secreted glycoproteins (LGI1, reelin) are emerging causes of epilepsy. LMAN2L belongs to a glycoprotein secretion chaperone family. One recessive LMAN2L missense mutation predicted to impair the chaperone's interaction with glycoproteins was reported in a family with intellectual disability (ID) and remitting epilepsy. We describe four members of a family with autosomal dominant inheritance of a similar phenotype. We show that they segregate a NM_001142292.1:c.1073delT mutation that eliminates LMAN2L's endoplasmic reticulum retention signal and mislocalizes the protein from that compartment to the plasma membrane. LMAN2L mislocalization, like impaired glycoprotein interaction, disturbs brain development, including generation of developmentally restricted epilepsy.

negative: A systematic review of lopinavir therapy for SARS coronavirus and MERS coronavirus—A possible reference for coronavirus disease‐19 treatment option In the past few decades, coronaviruses have risen as a global threat to public health. Currently, the outbreak of coronavirus disease‐19 (COVID‐19) from Wuhan caused a worldwide panic. There are no specific antiviral therapies for COVID‐19. However, there are agents that were used during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemics. We could learn from SARS and MERS. Lopinavir (LPV) is an effective agent that inhibits the protease activity of coronavirus. In this review, we discuss the literature on the efficacy of LPV in vitro and in vivo, especially in patients with SARS and MERS, so that we might clarify the potential for the use of LPV in patients with COVID‐19.

negative: Variation in critical care services across North America and Western Europe. OBJECTIVE Critical care represents a large percentage of healthcare spending in developed countries. Yet, little is known regarding international variation in critical care services. We sought to understand differences in critical care delivery by comparing data on the distribution of services in eight countries. DESIGN Retrospective review of existing national administrative data. We identified sources of data in each country to provide information on acute care hospitals and beds, intensive care units and beds, intensive care admissions, and definitions of intensive care beds. Data were all referenced and from as close to 2005 as possible. SETTING United States, France, United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium, Germany, The Netherlands, and Spain. PATIENTS Not available. INTERVENTIONS None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS No standard definition existed for acute care hospital or intensive care unit beds across countries. Hospital beds varied three-fold from 221/100,000 population in the United States to 593/100,000 in Germany. Adult intensive care unit beds also ranged seven-fold from 3.3/100,000 population in the United Kingdom to 24.0/100,000 in Germany. Volume of intensive care unit admissions per year varied ten-fold from 216/100,000 population in the United Kingdom to 2353/100,000 in Germany. The ratio of intensive care unit beds to hospital beds was highly correlated across all countries except the United States (r = .90). There was minimal correlation between the number of intensive care unit beds per capita and health care spending per capita (r = .45), but high inverse correlation between intensive care unit beds and hospital mortality for intensive care unit patients across countries (r = -.82). CONCLUSIONS Absolute critical care services vary dramatically between countries with wide differences in both numbers of beds and volume of admissions. The number of intensive care unit beds per capita is not strongly correlated with overall health expenditure, but does correlate strongly with mortality. These findings demonstrate the need for critical care data from all countries, as they are essential for interpretation of studies, and policy decisions regarding critical care services.

negative: Capacity building in health care professions within the Gulf cooperation council countries: paving the way forward BACKGROUND: There is a worldwide shortage of health care workers. This problem is particularly severe in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries because of shortages in certain medical disciplines, due to a lack of nationally-trained professionals and a less developed educational system compared to other high income countries. Consequently, GCC countries are heavily dependent on an expatriate health care workforce; a problem exacerbated by high turnover. We discuss challenges and potential strategies for improving and strengthening capacity building efforts in health care professions in the GCC. MAIN TEXT: In the GCC, there are 139 schools providing professional health education in medicine, dentistry, pharmacy, nursing, midwifery, and other specialties. Health education school density reported for the GCC countries ranges between 2.2 and 2.8 schools per one million inhabitants, except in Oman where it is 4.0 per one million inhabitants. The GCC countries rely heavily on expatriate health professionals. The number of physicians and nurses in the GCC countries are 2.1 and 4.5 per 1000 respectively, compared to 2.8 and 7.9 among member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Interestingly, the number of dentists and pharmacists is higher in the GCC countries compared to OECD countries. A nationally trained health care workforce is essential for the GCC countries. Physiotherapy and occupational therapy are two identified areas where growth and development are recommended. Custom-tailored continuing medical education and continuing professional development (CPD) programs can augment the skills of health practitioners, and allow for the expansion of their scope of practice when warranted. CONCLUSION: Capacity building can play an essential role in addressing the major health challenges and improving the overall quality of health care in the region. Efforts aimed at increasing the number of locally-trained graduates and developing and implementing need-based CPD programs are vital for capacity building and lifelong learning in health care professions. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12909-019-1513-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Strengthening health systems for universal health coverage and sustainable development

negative: Improving Access and Mental Health for Youth Through Virtual Models of Care The overall objective of this research is to evaluate the use of a mobile health smartphone application (app) to improve the mental health of youth between the ages of 14–25 years, with symptoms of anxiety/depression. This project includes 115 youth who are accessing outpatient mental health services at one of three hospitals and two community agencies. The youth and care providers are using eHealth technology to enhance care. The technology uses mobile questionnaires to help promote self-assessment and track changes to support the plan of care. The technology also allows secure virtual treatment visits that youth can participate in through mobile devices. This longitudinal study uses participatory action research with mixed methods. The majority of participants identified themselves as Caucasian (66.9%). Expectedly, the demographics revealed that Anxiety Disorders and Mood Disorders were highly prevalent within the sample (71.9% and 67.5% respectively). Findings from the qualitative summary established that both staff and youth found the software and platform beneficial.

negative: British Columbia's biotechnology industry: blending research, business and lifestyle An overview of British Columbia's biotechnology industry.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and intravascular volume management strategies in the critically ill The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to spread across the globe, and millions of people may be affected. While knowledge regarding epidemiologic features and diagnostic tools of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly evolving, uncertainties surrounding various aspects of its optimal management strategies persist. A subset of these patients develop a more severe form of the disease characterized by expanding pulmonary lesions, sepsis, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and respiratory failure. Due to lack of data on treatment strategies specific to this subset of patients, currently available evidence on management of the critically ill needs to be extrapolated and customized to their clinical needs. The article calls attention to fluid stewardship in the critically ill with COVID-19 by judiciously applying the evidence-based resuscitation principles to their specific clinical features such as high rates of cardiac injury. As we await more data from treating these patients, this strategy is likely to help reduce potential complications.

negative: Obesity prolongs the hospital stay in patients affected by COVID-19, and may impact on SARS-COV-2 shedding INTRODUCTION: On the last three months the new SARS-COV-2 coronavirus has created a pandemic, rapidly spreading all around the world. The aim of the study is to investigate whether obesity impacts on COVID-19 morbidity. METHODS: One hundred consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia admitted in our Medical Unit were evaluated. Anthropometric parameters and past medical history were registered. Nasopharyngeal swab samples and biochemical analysis were obtained at admission and during hospital stay. RESULTS: Patients with (OB, 29) and without obesity (N-OB, 71) were similar in age, gender and comorbidities, with the exception of hypertension that was more frequent in OB group. At admission, inflammatory markers were higher in OB than N-OB group. OB group showed a worse pulmonary clinical picture, with lower PaO2 (57 ± 15 vs. 68 ± 14 mmHg, p = 0.042), and SaO2 (88 ± 6 vs. 92 ± 5 %, p = 0.049) at admission consequently requiring higher volumes of oxygen (Fi02: 38 ± 15 vs. 29 ± 19%, p = 0.047) and a longer period to achieve oxygen weaning (10 ± 6 vs. 15 ± 7 days, p = 0.03). OB group also had positive swabs for longer time (19 ± 8 vs. 13 ± 7, days, p = 0.002), and required longer hospital stay (21 ± 8 vs. 13 ± 8, days, p = 0.0008). Partial least square regression analysis showed that BMI, age and CRP at admission were related to longer length of hospital stay, and time for negative swab. On the contrary, in this cohort, obesity did not predict higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Subjects with obesity affected by COVID-19 require longer hospitalization, more intensive and longer oxygen treatment, and they may have longer SARS-COV-2 shedding.

negative: Covid-19 and immunomodulation in IBD The current coronavirus pandemic is an ongoing global health crisis due to covid-19, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Although covid-19 leads to little or mild flu-like symptoms in the majority of affected patients, the disease may cause severe, frequently lethal complications such as progressive pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome and organ failure driven by hyperinflammation and a cytokine storm syndrome. This situation causes various major challenges for gastroenterology. In the context of IBD, several key questions arise. For instance, it is an important question to understand whether patients with IBD (eg, due to intestinal ACE2 expression) might be particularly susceptible to covid-19 and the cytokine release syndrome associated with lung injury and fatal outcomes. Another highly relevant question is how to deal with immunosuppression and immunomodulation during the current pandemic in patients with IBD and whether immunosuppression affects the progress of covid-19. Here, the current understanding of the pathophysiology of covid-19 is reviewed with special reference to immune cell activation. Moreover, the potential implications of these new insights for immunomodulation and biological therapy in IBD are discussed.

negative: 2018 ACVIM Forum Research Abstract Program: Seattle, Washington, June 14 ‐ 15, 2018

negative: Post-exposure prophylaxis or pre-emptive therapy for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): study protocol for a pragmatic randomized-controlled trial BACKGROUND: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019 causing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, there is a lack of evidence-based therapies to prevent COVID-19 following exposure to the virus, or to prevent worsening of symptoms following confirmed infection. We describe the design of a clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and pre-emptive therapy (PET) for COVID-19. METHODS: We will conduct two nested multicentre international double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine for: 1) PEP of asymptomatic household contacts or healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 within the past four days, and 2) PET for symptomatic outpatients with COVID-19 showing symptoms for less than four days. We will recruit 1,500 patients each for the PEP and PET trials. Participants will be randomized 1:1 to receive five days of hydroxychloroquine or placebo. The primary PEP trial outcome will be the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19. The primary PET trial outcome will be an ordinal scale of disease severity (not hospitalized, hospitalized without intensive care, hospitalization with intensive care, or death). Participant screening, informed consent, and follow-up will be exclusively internet-based with appropriate regulatory and research ethics board approvals in Canada and the United States. DISCUSSION: These complementary randomized-controlled trials are innovatively designed and adequately powered to rapidly answer urgent questions regarding the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine to reduce virus transmission and disease severity of COVID-19 during a pandemic. In-person participant follow-up will not be conducted to facilitate social distancing strategies and reduce risks of exposure to study personnel. Innovative trial approaches are needed to urgently assess therapeutic options to mitigate the global impact of this pandemic. TRIALS REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04308668); registered 16 March, 2020.

negative: Positive immunostaining for feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) in a Sphinx cat with cutaneous lesions and bilateral panuveitis Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is a common, fatal, systemic disease of cats. This case report describes the antemortem diagnosis of FIP in a 2‐year‐old spayed female Sphinx cat that presented with a bilateral panuveitis and multiple papular cutaneous lesions. Histopathologically, the skin lesions were characterized by perivascular infiltrates of macrophages, neutrophils, with fewer plasma cells, mast cells, and small lymphocytes in the mid‐ to deep dermis. Immunohistochemistry for intracellular feline coronavirus (FeCoV) antigen demonstrated positive staining in dermal macrophages providing an antemortem diagnosis of a moderate, nodular to diffuse, pyogranulomatous perivascular dermatitis due to FIP infection. Obtaining an antemortem diagnosis of FIP can be a challenge and cutaneous lesions are rare in the disease. Recognition and biopsy of any cutaneous lesions in cats with panuveitis and suspected FIP can help establish an antemortem diagnosis of the disease.

negative: Chapter 14 Viral Diseases This chapter reviews the naturally occurring viral diseases and asymptomatic viral infections of rabbits and hares. The principal emphasis is on virus infections of domestic rabbits of the genus Oryctolagus. Included are Myxoma virus and other Poxviruses, Herpesviruses, Papilloma, and Polyoma viruses, Adenovirus, Parvovirus, Rotavirus, Caliciviruses, including rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus and European brown hare disease virus, Bunyaviruses, Togaviruses, Flaviviruses, Picobirnavirus, and Rabies virus. Each virus is discussed under the following topics, history, etiology, epidemiology, clinical signs, pathology, diagnosis, and control.

negative: Health and Demographic Impact on COVID-19 Infection and Mortality in US Counties Introduction With the pandemic of COVID-19, the number of confirmed cases and related deaths are increasing in the US. We aimed to understand the potential impact of health and demographic factors on the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 at the population level. Methods We collected total number of confirmed cases and deaths related to COVID-19 at the county level in the US from January 21, 2020 to April 23, 2020. We extracted health and demographic measures for each US county. Multivariable linear mixed effects models were used to investigate potential correlations of health and demographic characteristics with the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 in US counties. Results Our models showed that several health and demographic factors were positively correlated with the infection rate of COVID-19, such as low education level and percentage of Black. In contrast, several factors, including percentage of smokers and percentage of food insecure, were negatively correlated with the infection rate of COVID-19. While the number of days since first confirmed case and the infection rate of COVID-19 were negatively correlated with the mortality rate of COVID-19, percentage of elders (65 and above) and percentage of rural were positively correlated with the mortality rate of COVID-19. Conclusions At the population level, health and demographic factors could impact the infection and mortality rates of COVID-19 in US counties.

negative: Safety issues and harmful pharmacological interactions of nutritional supplements in Duchenne muscular dystrophy: considerations for Standard of Care and emerging virus outbreaks At the moment, little treatment options are available for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). The absence of the dystrophin protein leads to a complex cascade of pathogenic events in myofibres, including chronic inflammation and oxidative stress as well as altered metabolism. The attention towards dietary supplements in DMD is rapidly increasing, with the aim to counteract pathology-related alteration in nutrient intake, the consequences of catabolic distress or to enhance the immunological response of patients as nowadays for the COVID-19 pandemic emergency. By definition, supplements do not exert therapeutic actions, although a great confusion may arise in daily life by the improper distinction between supplements and therapeutic compounds. For most supplements, little research has been done and little evidence is available concerning their effects in DMD as well as their preventing actions against infections. Often these are not prescribed by clinicians and patients/caregivers do not discuss the use with their clinical team. Then, little is known about the real extent of supplement use in DMD patients. It is mistakenly assumed that, since compounds are of natural origin, if a supplement is not effective, it will also do no harm. However, supplements can have serious side effects and also have harmful interactions, in terms of reducing efficacy or leading to toxicity, with other therapies. It is therefore pivotal to shed light on this unclear scenario for the sake of patients. This review discusses the supplements mostly used by DMD patients, focusing on their potential toxicity, due to a variety of mechanisms including pharmacodynamic or pharmacokinetic interactions and contaminations, as well as on reports of adverse events. This overview underlines the need for caution in uncontrolled use of dietary supplements in fragile populations such as DMD patients. A culture of appropriate use has to be implemented between clinicians and patients’ groups.

negative: Nelfinavir inhibits replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in vitro In December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. No specific treatment has been established against coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) so far. Therefore, it is urgently needed to identify effective antiviral agents for the treatment of this disease, and several approved drugs such as lopinavir have been evaluated. Here, we report that nelfinavir, an HIV-1 protease inhibitor, potently inhibits replication of SARS-CoV-2. The effective concentrations for 50% and 90% inhibition (EC50 and EC90) of nelfinavir were 1.13 µM and 1.76 µM respectively, the lowest of the nine HIV-1 protease inhibitors including lopinavir. The trough and peak serum concentrations of nelfinavir were three to six times higher than EC50 of this drug. These results suggest that nelfinavir is a potential candidate drug for the treatment of COVID-19 and should be assessed in patients with COVID-19.

negative: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports: Anonymization Process Description (version 1.0) This document describes the aggregation and anonymization process applied to the initial version of Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports (published at http://google.com/covid19/mobility on April 2, 2020), a publicly available resource intended to help public health authorities understand what has changed in response to work-from-home, shelter-in-place, and other recommended policies aimed at flattening the curve of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our anonymization process is designed to ensure that no personal data, including an individual's location, movement, or contacts, can be derived from the resulting metrics. The high-level description of the procedure is as follows: we first generate a set of anonymized metrics from the data of Google users who opted in to Location History. Then, we compute percentage changes of these metrics from a baseline based on the historical part of the anonymized metrics. We then discard a subset which does not meet our bar for statistical reliability, and release the rest publicly in a format that compares the result to the private baseline.

negative: Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Background: As the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading, incoming data allows us to quantify values of key variables that determine the transmission and the effort required to control the epidemic. We determine the incubation period and serial interval distribution for transmission clusters in Singapore and in Tianjin. We infer the basic reproduction number and identify the extent of pre-symptomatic transmission. Methods: We collected outbreak information from Singapore and Tianjin, China, reported from Jan.19-Feb.26 and Jan.21-Feb.27, respectively. We estimated incubation periods and serial intervals in both populations. Results: The mean incubation period was 7.1 (6.13, 8.25) days for Singapore and 9 (7.92, 10.2)days for Tianjin. Both datasets had shorter incubation periods for earlier-occurring cases. The mean serial interval was 4.56 (2.69, 6.42) days for Singapore and 4.22 (3.43, 5.01) for Tianjin. We inferred that early in the outbreaks, infection was transmitted on average 2.55 and 2.89days before symptom onset (Singapore, Tianjin). The estimated basic reproduction number for Singapore was 1.97 (1.45, 2.48) secondary cases per infective; for Tianjin it was 1.87 (1.65,2.09) secondary cases per infective. Conclusions: Estimated serial intervals are shorter than incubation periods in both Singapore and Tianjin, suggesting that pre-symptomatic transmission is occurring. Shorter serial intervals lead to lower estimates of R0, which suggest that half of all secondary infections should be prevented to control spread.

negative: Lack of Antiviral Activity of Darunavir against SARS-CoV-2 Given the high need and the absence of specific antivirals for treatment of COVID-19 (the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus-2 [SARS-CoV-2]), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protease inhibitors are being considered as therapeutic alternatives. Prezcobix/Rezolsta is a fixed-dose combination of 800 mg of the HIV protease inhibitor darunavir (DRV) and 150 mg cobicistat, a CYP3A4 inhibitor, which is indicated in combination with other antiretroviral agents for the treatment of HIV infection. There are currently no definitive data on the safety and efficacy of DRV/cobicistat for treatment of COVID-19. The in vitro antiviral activity of darunavir against a clinical isolate from a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2 was assessed. DRV showed no activity against SARS-CoV-2 at clinically relevant concentrations (EC50 >100 μM). Remdesivir, used as a positive control, showed potent antiviral activity (EC50 = 0.38 μM). Overall, the data do not support the use of DRV for treatment of COVID-19.

negative: Clinical Characteristics and Risk factors for developed COVID-19 patients transferring to designated hospital from Jianghan Fangcang shelter Hospital: a retrospective, observational study Background The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a world-wide emergency. Fangcang shelter hospitals have been applied in COVID-19 to ease ongoing shortage of medical resources in Wuhan since February 2020. Methods This study enrolled all cases (no=1848) with mild or moderate type of COVID-19 in Fangcang shelter hospital of Jianghan in Wuhan from Feb 5th to Mar 9th, 2020. Diagnosis of COVID-19 was based on the National health commission of China. Epidemiological history, comorbidity, vital signs, symptoms and signs were recorded in detail. Laboratory tests included biochemical indicators and nucleic acid tests by throat swabs have been performed as well. Findings A total of 1327 patients reached the criteria of isolation release. Meanwhile, 521 patients have been transferred to the designated hospitals for further treatment, including severe type, fever more than 3 days, and severe comorbidity. The case-severity rate (rate of mild or moderate type transforming to severe type) was 3.0% in the shelter hospital. The patients from mild or moderate type to severe type showed the following clinical characteristics: the median incubation (onset to shelter) period was 10 days; they were all symptomatic at admission; fever, cough, and fatigue were the most common symptoms; hypertension, diabetes and coronary heart diseases were common co-morbidities; most of the patients had elevated levels of CRP at ill onset with 33.3% over 10 mg per L; bilateral distribution and ground-glass opacity were the most common manifestations in chest CT. Interpretation The potential risk factors of fever, fatigue, high level of C-reactive protein were the risk factors to identify the progression of COVID-19 patients with mild or moderate type. Fangcang shelter hospitals have substantially reduced the time from the onset of severe symptoms transfer to a designated hospital. Early application of the Fangcang shelter hospital may contribute to decrease the ratio of mild transforming to severe patients. Funding No specific grant from any funding was applied to this research.

negative: Characteristics, outcome and predictors of in-hospital mortality in an elderly population from a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a long-term care facility. Since December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread from China all over the world, many COVID-19 outbreaks have been reported in long-term care facilities (LCTF). However, data on clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in such settings are scarce. We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study to assess clinical characteristics and baseline predictors of mortality of COVID-19 patients hospitalized after an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a LTCF. A total of 50 patients were included. Mean age was 80 years (SD, 12 years), and 24/50 (57.1%) patients were males. A total of 42/50 (84%) patients experienced symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 32%. In Cox regression, significant predictors of in-hospital mortality were: hypernatremia (HR 9.12), lymphocyte count <1000 cells/L (HR 7.45), cardiovascular diseases other than hypertension (HR 6.41), and higher levels of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6, pg/mL) (HR 1.005). Our study shows a high in-hospital mortality rate in a cohort of elderly patients with COVID-19 and hypernatremia, lymphopenia, CVD other than hypertension, and higher IL-6 serum levels were identified as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. Further studies are necessary to better understand and confirm our findings in the setting of a LTCF outbreak of COVID-19.

negative: Overview on SARS in Asia and the World Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is the first major novel infectious disease to hit the international community in the 21st century. It originated in southern China in November 2002, reached Hong Kong in February 2003 and spread rapidly thereafter to 29 countries/regions on five continents. At the end of the epidemic, the global cumulative total was 8098 with 774 deaths. Seven Asian countries/regions were among the top ten on the list. Mainland China and Hong Kong, SAR, accounted for 87% of all cases and 84% of all deaths. Severe acute respiratory syndrome is caused by a novel coronavirus. It has alarmed the world with its infectivity and significant morbidity and mortality, its lack of a rapid, reliable diagnostic test and lack of effective specific treatment and vaccination. The adverse impact on travel and business around the world, particularly in Asia, has been enormous. Some lessons learnt from this epidemic included: (1) any outbreak of infectious disease can rapidly spread around the world by air travel; (2) early reporting of the outbreak to neighbouring countries/regions and the World Health Organization is essential to prevent international spread; and (3) infection control, tracing and quarantine of contacts are essential to control the epidemic. Many questions remain unanswered, including the origin and pathogenesis of the novel coronavirus, the natural history and the best specific treatment of the disease. The SARS‐CoV has probably jumped from an animal host to humans. There is an urgent need to evaluate the human–animal habitat in southern China and to remove animal reservoirs if found.

negative: Is Canada ready for the second wave of COVID-19?

negative: Surgical wait list management in Canada during a pandemic: many challenges ahead. Summary The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a massive impact on waits for elective operations, with tens of thousands of scheduled surgeries being cancelled or postponed across Canada. Provincial governments will likely not only reopen elective surgical capacity when it is deemed safe, but also target new funding to address the backlog of cases. There is a dearth of research on whether the provinces' approaches to managing wait lists are equitable from a patients' needs perspective or if they are associated with patients' perception of outcomes. The surgical cost models used in the past won't be useful to governments and hospital managers. New models based on hospitals' marginal costs, associated with running on weekends or off-hours and social distancing parameters, will be needed. Surgeon input, collaboration and leadership during the strategy development, implementation and management of surgical wait lists postpandemic will be imperative, as these decisions will significantly affect the health and lives of many Canadians.

negative: Classification of COVID-19 in intensive care patients: towards rational and effective clinical triage The number of pertinent researches of COVID-19 has increased rapidly but they mainly focused on the description of general information of patients with confirmed infection. We aimed to bridge the gap between disease classification and clinical outcome in intensive care patients, data of which are scarce and such classification could help in individual evaluation and provide effective triage for treatment and management. Specifically, we collected and filtered out 151 intensive care patients with complete medical records from Tongji hospital in Wuhan, China. We constructed a fully Bayesian latent variable model for integrative clustering of six data categories, including demographic information, symptoms, original comorbidities, vital signs, blood routine tests and inflammatory marker measurements. We identified four prognostic types of COVID-19 in intensive care patients, presenting a stepwise distribution in age, respiratory condition and inflammatory markers, suggesting the prognostic efficacy of these indicators. This report, to our knowledge, is the first attempt of dealing with classification of COVID-19 in intensive care patients. We acknowledge the limitation of ignoring the effect of treatment, but we believe such classification is enlightening for better triage, allowing for a more rational allocation of scarce medical resources in a resource constrained environment.

negative: Quantifying socioeconomic activities and weather effects on the global spread of COVID-19 epidemic The COVID-19 has caused more than three million infections and over two hundred thousand deaths by April 20201. Limiting socioeconomic activities (SA) is among the most adopted governmental mitigating efforts to combat the transmission of the virus, though the degree varies dramatically among different regimes2. This study aims to quantify the contribution from the SA and weather conditions to the transmission of COVID-19 at global scale. Ruling out the unobservable factors including medical facilities and other control policies (MOC) through region-by-time fixed effects3,4, we show that the limiting SA has a leading contribution to lower the reproductive number by 18.3%, while weather conditions, including ultraviolet, relative humidity, and wind explain a smaller amount of variation. Temperature might have a non-monotonic impact on the transmission. We further show that in developed countries5 and China, the SA effect is more pronounced whereas the weather effect is significantly downplayed possibly because people tend to stay indoors most of the time with a controlled climate. We finally estimate the reduced reproductive number and the population spared from infections due to restricting SA at 40,964, 180,336, 174,494, in China, United States, and Europe respectively. From late January to mid-April, all regions, except for China, Australia, and south Korea show a steep upward trend of spared infections due to restricting SA. US and Europe, in particular, show far steeper upward trends of spared infections in the analyzed timeframe, signaling a greater risk of reopening the economy too soon.

negative: Guidelines for dental care provision during the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract Since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak was declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020. Several dental care facilities in affected countries have been completely closed or have been only providing minimal treatment for emergency cases. However, several facilities in some affected countries are still providing regular dental treatment. This can in part be a result of the lack of universal protocol or guidelines regulating the dental care provision during such a pandemic. This lack of guidelines can on one hand increase the nosocomial COVID-19 spread through dental health care facilities, and on the other hand deprive patients’ in need of the required urgent dental care. Moreover, ceasing dental care provision during such a period will incense the burden on hospitals emergency departments already struggle with the pandemic. This work aimed to develop guidelines for dental patients’ management during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Guidelines for dental care provision during the COVID-19 pandemic were developed after considering the nature of COVID-19 pandemic, and were based on grouping the patients according to condition and need, and considering the procedures according to risk and benefit. It is hoped that the guidelines proposed in this work will help in the management of dental care around the world during and after this COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: A Rare Moment of Cross-Partisan Consensus: Elite and Public Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Canada The COVID-19 pandemic requires an effort to coordinate the actions of government and society in a way unmatched in recent history. Individual citizens need to voluntarily sacrifice economic and social activity for an indefinite period of time to protect others. At the same time, we know that public opinion tends to become polarized on highly salient issues, except when political elites are in consensus (Berinsky, 2009; Zaller, 1992). Avoiding elite and public polarization is thus essential for an effective societal response to the pandemic. In the United States, there appears to be elite and public polarization on the severity of the pandemic (Gadarian et al., 2020). Other evidence suggests that polarization is undermining compliance with social distancing (Cornelson and Miloucheva, 2020). Using a multimethod approach, we show that Canadian political elites and the public are in a unique period of cross-partisan consensus on important questions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as its seriousness and the necessity of social distancing.

negative: COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Associated with Incidence-A Population-Level Analysis of 19 Spanish Autonomous Communities Previous studies have found large variations in the COVID-19 infection fatality rate (IFR). This study hypothesized that IFR would be influenced by COVID-19 epidemic intensity. We tested the association between epidemic intensity and IFR using serological results from a recent large SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey (N = 60,983) in 19 Spanish regions. The infection fatality rate for Spain as a whole was 1.15% and varied between 0.13% and 3.25% in the regions (median 1.07%, IQR 0.69-1.32%). The IFR by region was positively associated with SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence (rho = 0.54; p = 0.0162), cases/100,000 (rho = 0.75; p = 0.002), hospitalizations/100,000 (rho = 0.78; p = 0.0001), mortality/100,000 (rho = 0.77; p = 0.0001) and case fatality rate (rho = 0.49; p = 0.0327). These results suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 IFR is not fixed. The Spanish regions with more rapid and extensive spread of SARS-CoV-2 had higher IFRs. These findings are compatible with the theory that slowing the spread of COVID-19 down reduces the IFR and case fatality rate via preventing hospitals from being overrun, and thus allowing better and lifesaving care.

negative: Anticipating and Mitigating the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is causing global morbidity and mortality, straining health systems, and disrupting society, putting individuals with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) at risk of significant harm. In this Special Article, we examine the current and expected impact of the pandemic on individuals with ADRD. We discuss and propose mitigation strategies for: the risk of COVID-19 infection and its associated morbidity and mortality for individuals with ADRD; the impact of COVID-19 on the diagnosis and clinical management of ADRD; consequences of societal responses to COVID-19 in different ADRD care settings; the effect of COVID-19 on caregivers and physicians of individuals with ADRD; mental hygiene, trauma, and stigma in the time of COVID-19; and the potential impact of COVID-19 on ADRD research. Amid considerable uncertainty, we may be able to prevent or reduce the harm of the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences for individuals with ADRD and their caregivers.

negative: Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis Background: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. Objectives: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. Methods: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R(0). Modeled R(0) increases were compared with R(0) ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. Results: R(0) for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971–2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R(0) by factors (2–5 times in Canada and 1.5–2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R(0) for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Conclusions: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects. Citation: Ogden NH, Radojević M, Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Leighton PA, Wu J. 2014. Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis. Environ Health Perspect 122:631–638; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307799

negative: The site of origin of the 1918 influenza pandemic and its public health implications

negative: Guidance on the use of antiviral drugs for influenza in acute care facilities in Canada, 2014–2015 This article represents the second update to the AMMI Canada Guidelines document on the use of antiviral drugs for influenza. The article aims to inform health care professionals of the increased risk for influenza in long-term care facilities due to a documented mismatch between the components chosen for this season’s vaccine and currently circulating influenza strains. Adjusted recommendations for the use of antiviral drugs for influenza in the acute care setting for this season are provided.

negative: Rapid Detection of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) by Reverse Transcription-Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification Novel Corona virus (COVID-19 or 2019-nCoV) is an emerging global health concern that requires a rapid diagnostic test. Quantitative reverse transcription PCR (qRT-PCR) is currently the standard for COVID-19 detection; however, Reverse Transcription Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification (RT-LAMP) may allow for faster and cheaper field based testing at point-of-risk. The objective of this study was to develop a rapid screening diagnostic test that could be completed in under 30 minutes. Simulated patient samples were generated by spiking serum, urine, saliva, oropharyngeal swabs, and nasopharyngeal swabs with a portion of the COVID-19 nucleic sequence. The samples were tested using RT-LAMP as well as by conventional qRT-PCR. Specificity of the RT-LAMP was evaluated by also testing against other related coronaviruses. RT-LAMP specifically detected COVID-19 in simulated patient samples. This test was performed in under 30 minutes. This approach could be used for monitoring of exposed individuals or potentially aid with screening efforts in the field and potential ports of entry.

negative: The emotional impact of COVID-19: From medical staff to common people

negative: Characterization of bovine coronavirus isolates/from eight different states in the USA Abstract Bovine coronavirus isolates from eight different states of the USA were compared for their antigenic properties and susceptibility to hygromycin B. Antigenic differences were observed among the isolates in a one-way hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) test using a polyclonal antiserum against the Mebus bovine coronavirus isolate. Differences were observed on isoelectric focusing among viral proteins with isoelectric points between 4.45–4.65. Most of the BCV isolates were susceptible to hygromycin B (0.5mM) whereas a few hygromycin B resistant isolates were also found.

negative: Comparison of electron microscopy, ELISA, real time RT-PCR and insulated isothermal RT-PCR for the detection of Rotavirus group A (RVA) in feces of different animal species Abstract There is no gold standard for detection of Rotavirus Group A (RVA), one of the main causes of diarrhea in neonatal animals. Sensitive and specific real-time RT-PCR (rtRT-PCR) assays are available for RVA but require submission of the clinical samples to diagnostic laboratories. Patient-side immunoassays for RVA protein detection have shown variable results, particularly with samples from unintended species. A sensitive and specific test for detection of RVA on the farm would facilitate rapid management decisions. The insulated isothermal RT-PCR (RT-iiPCR) assay works in a portable machine to allow sensitive and specific on-site testing. The aim of this investigation was to evaluate a commercially available RT-iiPCR assay for RVA detection in feces from different animal species. This assay was compared to an in-house rtRT-PCR assay and a commercially available rtRT-PCR kit, as well as an ELISA and EM for RVA detection. All three PCR assays targeted the well-conserved NSP5 gene. Clinical fecal samples from 108 diarrheic animals (mainly cattle and horses) were tested. The percentage of positive samples by ELISA, EM, in-house rtRT-PCR, commercial rtRT-PCR, and RT-iiPCR was 29.4%, 31%, 36.7%, 51.4%, 56.9%, respectively. The agreement between different assays was high (81.3–100%) in samples containing high viral loads. The sensitivity of the RT-iiPCR assay appeared to be higher than the commercially available rtRT-PCR assay, with a limit of detection (95% confidence index) of 3–4 copies of in vitro transcribed dsRNA. In conclusion, the user-friendly, field-deployable RT-iiPCR system holds substantial promise for on-site detection of RVA.

negative: COVID-19 in Children in the United States: Intensive Care Admissions, Estimated Total Infected, and Projected Numbers of Severe Pediatric Cases in 2020 IMPORTANCE: A surge in severe cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) in children would present unique challenges for hospitals and public health preparedness efforts in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To provide evidence-based estimates of children infected with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) and projected cumulative numbers of severely ill pediatric COVID-19 cases requiring hospitalization during the US 2020 pandemic. DESIGN: Empirical case projection study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Adjusted pediatric severity proportions and adjusted pediatric criticality proportions were derived from clinical and spatiotemporal modeling studies of the COVID-19 epidemic in China for the period January-February 2020. Estimates of total children infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the United States through April 6, 2020, were calculated using US pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) cases and the adjusted pediatric criticality proportion. Projected numbers of severely and critically ill children with COVID-19 were derived by applying the adjusted severity and criticality proportions to US population data, under several scenarios of cumulative pediatric infection proportion (CPIP). RESULTS: By April 6, 2020, there were 74 children who had been reported admitted to PICUs in 19 states, reflecting an estimated 176 190 children nationwide infected with SARS-CoV-2 (52 381 infants and toddlers younger than 2 years, 42 857 children aged 2-11 years, and 80 952 children aged 12-17 years). Under a CPIP scenario of 5%, there would be 3.7 million children infected with SARS-CoV-2, 9907 severely ill children requiring hospitalization, and 1086 critically ill children requiring PICU admission. Under a CPIP scenario of 50%, 10 865 children would require PICU admission, 99 073 would require hospitalization for severe pneumonia, and 37.0 million would be infected with SARS-CoV-2. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Because there are 74.0 million children 0 to 17 years old in the United States, the projected numbers of severe cases could overextend available pediatric hospital care resources under several moderate CPIP scenarios for 2020 despite lower severity of COVID-19 in children than in adults.

negative: COVID-19: Projecting the impact in Rohingya refugee camps and beyond Background: COVID-19 could have even more dire consequences among refugees living in camps than in general populations. Bangladesh has confirmed COVID-19 cases and hosts almost 1 million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar with 600,000 concentrated in Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site. Projections of the potential COVID-19 infection burden, epidemic speed, and healthcare needs in such settings are critical to inform preparedness planning. Methods: To explore the potential impact of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Kutupalong-Balukhali Expansion Site, we used a stochastic disease transmission model with parameters derived from emerging literature. We considered three scenarios with different assumptions about the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2. We estimated the number and daily rate of infections, hospitalizations, deaths, and healthcare needs expected under each scenario. Findings: A large-scale outbreak is highly likely after a single introduction of the virus into the camp across scenarios with 65-95% of simulations leading to at least 1,000 infections. Estimated infections range from 119-504 between low and high transmission scenarios in the first 30 days; and between 424,798 and 543,647 in 12 months. Hospitalization needs exceeded the existing hospitalization capacity of 340 beds after 58-139 days between the low and high transmission scenarios. Estimated deaths range from 1,647-2,109 between low and high transmission scenarios. Interpretation: A COVID-19 epidemic in a refugee settlement may have profound consequences, requiring unrealistically large increases in healthcare capacity and infrastructure. Detailed and realistic planning for the worst in Kutupalong-Balukhali and all refugee camps worldwide must begin now. Plans should consider novel and radical strategies to reduce infectious contacts and fill health worker gaps while recognizing that refugees may not have access to national health systems. As global resources to fight this pandemic become scarce, displaced persons must not be forgotten.

negative: Patterns of seasonal and pandemic influenza-associated health care and mortality in Ontario, Canada BACKGROUND: Mathematical and statistical models are used to project the future time course of infectious disease epidemics and the expected future burden on health care systems and economies. Influenza is a particularly important disease in this context because it causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics. In order to forecast health care utilization during epidemics—and the effects of hospitalizations and deaths on the contact network and, in turn, on transmission dynamics—modellers must make assumptions about the lengths of time between infection, visiting a physician, being admitted to hospital, leaving hospital, and death. More reliable forecasts could be be made if the distributions of times between these types of events (“delay distributions”) were known. METHODS: We estimated delay distributions in the province of Ontario, Canada, between 2006 and 2010. To do so, we used encrypted health insurance numbers to link 1.34 billion health care billing records to 4.27 million hospital inpatient stays. Because the four year period we studied included three typical influenza seasons and the 2009 influenza pandemic, we were able to compare the delay distributions in non-pandemic and pandemic settings. We also estimated conditional probabilities such as the probability of hospitalization within the year if diagnosed with influenza. RESULTS: In non-pandemic [pandemic] years, delay distribution medians (inter-quartile ranges) were: Service to Admission 6.3 days (0.1–17.6 days) [2.4 days (-0.3–13.6 days)], Admission to Discharge 3 days (1.4–5.9 days) [2.6 days (1.2–5.1 days)], Admission to Death 5.3 days (2.1–11 days) [6 days (2.6–13.1 days)]. (Service date is defined as the date, within the year, of the first health care billing that included a diagnostic code for influenza-like-illness.) Among individuals diagnosed with either pneumonia or influenza in a given year, 19% [16%] were hospitalized within the year and 3% [2%] died in hospital. Among all individuals who were hospitalized, 10% [12%] were diagnosed with pneumonia or influenza during the year and 5% [5%] died in hospital. CONCLUSION: Our empirical delay distributions and conditional probabilities should help facilitate more accurate forecasts in the future, including improved predictions of hospital bed demands during influenza outbreaks, and the expected effects of hospitalizations on epidemic dynamics. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7369-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: SOGC Committee Opinion – COVID-19 in Pregnancy

negative: Prevalence, Severity and Mortality associated with COPD and Smoking in patients with COVID-19: A Rapid Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an evolving infectious disease that dramatically spread all over the world in the early part of 2020. No studies have yet summarized the potential severity and mortality risks caused by COVID-19 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we update information in smokers. METHODS: We systematically searched electronic databases from inception to March 24, 2020. Data were extracted by two independent authors in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We synthesized a narrative from eligible studies and conducted a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to calculate pooled prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: In total, 123 abstracts were screened and 61 full-text manuscripts were reviewed. A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria, which included a total of 2473 confirmed COVID-19 patients. All studies were included in the meta-analysis. The crude case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 7.4%. The pooled prevalence rates of COPD patients and smokers in COVID-19 cases were 2% (95% CI, 1%-3%) and 9% (95% CI, 4%-14%) respectively. COPD patients were at a higher risk of more severe disease (risk of severity = 63%, (22/35) compared to patients without COPD 33.4% (409/1224) [calculated RR, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.4-2.4)]. This was associated with higher mortality (60%). Our results showed that 22% (31/139) of current smokers and 46% (13/28) of ex-smokers had severe complications. The calculated RR showed that current smokers were 1.45 times more likely [95% CI: 1.03-2.04] to have severe complications compared to former and never smokers. Current smokers also had a higher mortality rate of 38.5%. CONCLUSION: Although COPD prevalence in COVID-19 cases was low in current reports, COVID-19 infection was associated with substantial severity and mortality rates in COPD. Compared to former and never smokers, current smokers were at greater risk of severe complications and higher mortality rate. Effective preventive measures are required to reduce COVID-19 risk in COPD patients and current smokers.

negative: A rate equation approach to model the denaturation or replication behavior of the SARS coronavirus As a newly emerging virus, little is known about the SARS coronavirus, whose outbreak has brought away several hundred people’s lives over the world in the year of 2003 and is seriously imperiling the human health. Revealing the denaturation and replication mechanisms of SARS coronavirus has great importance for successfully fighting SARS. However, experiments related to SARS coronavirus are extremely dangerous and therefore restricted only to certain specific labs with high safety standard. Clearly, predicting the behaviors of SARS coronavirus in a wide variety of environmental conditions, which are not easily accessible, are thus critically necessary. In this study, we proposed to quantify the survival time of SARS coronavirus either in vitro or in vivo, through introducing thermal rate process models established from the well-known Arrhenius law. The complex physical and chemical behaviors of the SARS coronavirus can then be attributed to its activation energy, frequency factor, damage function as well as the surrounding environmental conditions. Based on the first data on stability and resistance of SARS coronavirus measured by members of WHO laboratory network, the rate coefficients involved in the above equations were estimated for the first time. Predictions on the survival time of SARS coronavirus in different temperature scale were then performed. It was found theoretically that, such survival time falls in an extremely wide range, say from several seconds in high temperature to an almost infinitely long time in a low temperature environment, which has already or is being supported by the currently available tests data. Applications of the present theory to interpret several existing phenomena were presented and their implementations in developing new technical ways for SARS prevention and clinical therapy were discussed. Uncertainties involved in the theoretical models were also analyzed and predicted. Parametric studies were performed to test the effects of the rate coefficients to the survival time of SARS coronavirus. Some important factors, which can significantly vary the denaturation or replication process of SARS coronavirus were pointed out. Through regulating the parameters involved in the equation, certain potential therapies either through drug delivery or engineering approach to treat the SARS disease can possibly be established. Extension of the present model for further studies was also suggested. This study opens a new theoretical way for probing into the complex behaviors of SARS coronavirus. Modellierung der Denaturierung oder Repliziryng von SARS-Korona-Viren Zusammenfassung Der Kenntnisstand über die Eigenschaften des in 2003 neu aufgetretenen SARS Korona Virus, der einige Hundert Menschenleben gekostet hat, ist relativ gering. Die Ermittlung des Denaturierungs- und Replizierungsmechanismuses des SARS Virus ist für seine Bekämpfung von hoher Bedeutung. Experimentelle Untersuchungen an diesem extrem gefährlichen Virus dürfen nur durch Laboratorien mit einem hohen Sicherheitsstandard erfolgen. Die Vorhersage des Verhaltens des SARS Virus in unterschiedlichen Umgebungsbedingungen ist dabei erforderlich. In der vorliegenden Studie wird die überlebensdauer des Virus unter Labor- und realen Bedingungen durch Anwendung der bekannten Arrhenius-Beziehung für temperaturabhängige Vorgänge ermittelt. Das physikalische und chemische Verhalten des SARS Virus wird anhand der zugrundeliegenden Modell- Parameter beschrieben. Basierend auf den ersten Messungen von Mitgliedern des WHO-laboratory-network über die Stabilität und Widerstandsfähigkeit des Virus wurden erstmalig die Geschwindigkeitskoeffizienten des Berechnungsmodells bestimmt. Vorhersagen der Überlebensdauer des SARS-Virus unter unterschiedlichen Temperaturbedingungen wurden ausgeführt. Das sich hieraus ergebende, sehr unterschiedliche Ausmaß der Überlebensfähigkeit in Abhängigkeit der Umgebungstemperatur ist durch den Vergleich mit verfügbaren experimentellen Ergebnissen bestätigt worden. Die Anwendung der vorgestellten Modellierung zur Interpretation realer Phänomene und zur Entwicklung technischer Maßnahmen zur Vorbeugung und klinischen Therapierung von SARS wird diskutiert. Der Einfluß von Unsicherheiten des Modells wird analysiert und abgeschätzt. Parametrische Studien sind durchgeführt worden, um den Einfluß der Geschwindigkeitskoeffizienten auf die Überlebensdauer des SARS Virus darzustellen. Einige wichtige Einflußgrößen auf die Denaturierung und Replikationsfähigkeit des SARS Virus werden aufgezeigt. Durch eine Variation der Modellparameter kann die potentielle Wirksamkeit medikamentöser oder physikalischer Therapien abgeschätzt werden. Erweiterungsmöglichkeiten des vorgestellten Modells werden vorgeschlagen. Die vorliegende Studie ermöglicht neue, theoretische Vorgehensweisen zur Untersuchung des komplexen Verhaltensmusters des SARS Virus.

negative: CT Scans of Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia Rationale: The increasing speed of confirmed 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases is striking in China. The purpose of this study is to summarize the outcomes of patients with novel COVID-19 pneumonia (NCP) at our institution. Methods: In this single-center study, we retrospectively included 118 cases of NCP, from January 16, 2020 to February 4, 2020. The clinical outcomes were monitored up to February 11, 2020. The outcomes of NCP patients were phase summarized at our institution. Three kinds of responses to clinical treatment were defined and evaluated: 1) good, symptoms continually improved; 2) fair, symptoms not improved or relapsed; 3) poor, symptoms aggravated. The risk factors, including basal clinical characteristics, CT imaging features, and follow-up CT changes (no change, progress, and improvement) related to poor/fair outcomes, were also investigated. Results: Six patients were improved to no-emergency type, 2 remained the same, and 2 progressed to fatal type. Besides, 13 patients progressed from the common type group to the emergency group (3 in fatal type and 10 in severe type). Forty-two (35.6%) patients were discharged with a median hospital stay of 9.5 days (range, 4.0-15.0 days). Thus, the numbers in different responses were, 73 patients in good response group (4 emergency cases, 69 no-emergency cases), 28 in fair response group (3 emergency cases, 25 no-emergency cases), and 17 in poor response group (3 emergency cases, 14 no-emergency cases). No patient has died in our hospital to date. The median duration of progress observed from CT scans was 6 days (range, 2-14 days). The progression in abnormal imaging findings indicate a poor/fair response, whereas the alleviated symptoms seen from CT suggest a good response. Conclusion: Most cases are no-emergency type and have a favorable response to clinical treatment. Follow-up CT changes during the treatment can help evaluate the treatment response of patients with NCP.

negative: Planning for the aftershocks: a model of post-acute care needs for hospitalized COVID-19 patients Since its emergence in late 2019, COVID-19 has caused significant global morbidity and mortality, overwhelming health systems. Considerable attention has been paid to the burden COVID-19 has put on acute care hospitals, with numerous models projecting hospitalizations and ICU needs for the duration of the pandemic. However, less attention has been paid to where these patients may go if they require additional care following hospital discharge. As COVID-19 patients recover from severe infections, many of them require additional care. Yet with post-acute care facilities averaging 85% capacity prior to the pandemic and the significant potential for outbreaks, consideration of the downstream effects of the surge of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is critical. Here, we present a method for projecting COVID-19 post-acute care needs. Our model is designed to take the output from any of the numerous epidemiological models (hospital discharges) and estimate the flow of patients to post-acute care services, thus providing a similar surge planning model for post-acute care services. Using data from the University of Utah Hospital, we find that for those who require specialized post-acute care, the majority require either home health care or skilled nursing facilities. Likewise, we find the expected peak in post-acute care occurs about two weeks after the expected peak for acute care hospitalizations, a result of the duration of hospitalization. This short delay between acute care and post-acute care surges highlights the importance of considering the organization necessary to accommodate the influx of recovering COVID patients and protect non-COVID patients prior to the peak in acute care hospitalizations. We developed this model to guide policymakers in addressing the "aftershocks" of discharged patients requiring further supportive care; while we only show the outcomes for discharges based on preliminary data from the University of Utah Hospital, we suggest alternative uses for our model including adapting it to explore potential alternative strategies for addressing the surge in acute care facilities during future pandemic waves.

negative: La comunicación científica y el acceso abierto en la contención de enfermedades: El caso del Coronavirus novel 2019 (2019-nCoV)

negative: Analysis of multimerization of the SARS coronavirus nucleocapsid protein Abstract Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), an emerging disease characterized by atypical pneumonia, has recently been attributed to a novel coronavirus. The genome of SARS Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) has recently been sequenced, and a number of genes identified, including that of the nucleocapsid protein (N). It is noted, however, that the N protein of SARS-CoV (SARS-CoV N) shares little homology with nucleocapsid proteins of other members of the coronavirus family [Science 300 (2003) 1399; Science 300 (2003) 1394]. N proteins of other coronavirus have been reported to be involved in forming the viral core and also in the packaging and transcription of the viral RNA. As data generated from some viral systems other than coronaviruses suggested that viral N–N self-interactions may be necessary for subsequent formation of the nucleocapsid and assembly of the viral particles, we decided to investigate SARS-CoV N–N interaction. By using mammalian two-hybrid system and sucrose gradient fractionations, a homotypic interaction of N, but not M, was detected by the two-hybrid analysis. The mammalian two-hybrid assay revealed an approximately 50-fold increase in SEAP activity (measurement of protein–protein interaction) in N–N interaction compared to that observed in either M–M or mock transfection. Furthermore, mutational analyses characterized that a serine/arginine-rich motif (SSRSSSRSRGNSR) between amino acids 184 and 196 is crucial for N protein oligomerization, since deletion of this region completely abolished the N protein self-multimerization. Finally, the full-length nucleocapsid protein expressed and purified from baculovirus system was found to form different levels of higher order structures as detected by Western blot analysis of the fractionated proteins. Collectively, these results may aid us in elucidating the mechanism pertaining to formation of viral nucleocapsid core, and designing molecular approaches to intervene SARS-CoV replication.

negative: Facemask shortage and the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Reflection on public health measures To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to investigate the facemask shortage during the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak in China. We have summarized in detail the management strategies implemented by the Chinese governments during the outbreaks. By considering three scenarios for the outbreak development, we simulated the facemasks availability from late-December 2019 to late-April 2020 and estimated the duration of sufficient facemask supplies. Our findings showed that if the COVID-19 outbreak occurred only in Wuhan city or Hubei province, facemask shortage would not appear with the existing public health measures. However, if the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, a shortage of facemask could be substantial assuming no alternative public health measures. Supplies of facemasks in the whole of China would have been sufficient for both healthcare workers and the general population if the COVID-19 outbreak only occurred in Wuhan city or Hubei province. However, if the outbreak occurred in the whole of China, facemask supplies in China could last for 5 days if under the existing public health measures and a shortage of 853 million facemasks is expected by 30 Apr 2020. Assuming a gradually decreased import volume, we estimated that dramatic increase in productivity (42.7 times of the usual level) is needed to mitigate the facemask crisis by the end of April. In light of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, a shortage of facemasks and other medical resources can considerably compromise the efficacy of public health measures. Effective public health measures should also consider the adequacy and affordability of medical resources. Global collaboration should be strengthened to prevent the development of a global pandemic from a regional epidemic via easing the medical resources crisis in the affected countries.

negative: Prevalence, Severity and Mortality associated with COPD and Smoking in patients with COVID-19: A Rapid Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an evolving infectious disease that dramatically spread all over the world in the early part of 2020. No studies have yet summarized the potential severity and mortality risks caused by COVID-19 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and we update information in smokers. METHODS: We systematically searched electronic databases from inception to March 24, 2020. Data were extracted by two independent authors in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Study quality was assessed using a modified version of the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We synthesized a narrative from eligible studies and conducted a meta-analysis using a random-effects model to calculate pooled prevalence rates and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: In total, 123 abstracts were screened and 61 full-text manuscripts were reviewed. A total of 15 studies met the inclusion criteria, which included a total of 2473 confirmed COVID-19 patients. All studies were included in the meta-analysis. The crude case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 7.4%. The pooled prevalence rates of COPD patients and smokers in COVID-19 cases were 2% (95% CI, 1%–3%) and 9% (95% CI, 4%–14%) respectively. COPD patients were at a higher risk of more severe disease (risk of severity = 63%, (22/35) compared to patients without COPD 33.4% (409/1224) [calculated RR, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.4–2.4)]. This was associated with higher mortality (60%). Our results showed that 22% (31/139) of current smokers and 46% (13/28) of ex-smokers had severe complications. The calculated RR showed that current smokers were 1.45 times more likely [95% CI: 1.03–2.04] to have severe complications compared to former and never smokers. Current smokers also had a higher mortality rate of 38.5%. CONCLUSION: Although COPD prevalence in COVID-19 cases was low in current reports, COVID-19 infection was associated with substantial severity and mortality rates in COPD. Compared to former and never smokers, current smokers were at greater risk of severe complications and higher mortality rate. Effective preventive measures are required to reduce COVID-19 risk in COPD patients and current smokers.

negative: Better Tests, Better Care: Improved Diagnostics for Infectious Diseases In this IDSA policy paper, we review the current diagnostic landscape, including unmet needs and emerging technologies, and assess the challenges to the development and clinical integration of improved tests. To fulfill the promise of emerging diagnostics, IDSA presents recommendations that address a host of identified barriers. Achieving these goals will require the engagement and coordination of a number of stakeholders, including Congress, funding and regulatory bodies, public health agencies, the diagnostics industry, healthcare systems, professional societies, and individual clinicians.

negative: Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Knowledge and Perceptions: A Survey of Healthcare Workers Background: During the first week of March, the surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases reached over 100 countries with more than 100,000 cases. Healthcare authorities have already initiated awareness and preparedness activities beyond borders. A poor understanding of the disease among healthcare workers (HCWs) may result in delayed treatment and the rapid spread of infection. This study aimed to investigate the knowledge and perceptions of HCWs about COVID-19. Methods: A cross-sectional, web-based study was conducted among HCWs about COVID-19 during the first week of March 2020. A 23-item survey instrument was developed and distributed randomly to HCWs using social media; it required 5 minutes to complete. A chi-square test was used to investigate the level of association among variables at the significance level of p<0.05. Results: Of 529 participants, a total of 453 HCWs completed the survey (response rate: 85.6%); 51.6% were males, 32.1% were aged 25-34 years, and most were doctors (30.2%) and medical students (29.6%). Regarding COVID-19, most of the participants used social media to obtain information (61%), and a significant proportion of HCWs had poor knowledge of its transmission (61%) and symptom onset (63.6%) and showed positive perceptions of COVID-19 prevention and control. Factors such as age and profession were associated with inadequate knowledge and poor perception of COVID-19. Conclusion: As the global threat of COVID-19 continues to emerge, it is critical to improve the knowledge and perceptions of HCWs. Educational interventions are urgently needed to reach HCWs beyond borders, and further studies are warranted.

negative: Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China. Importance In December 2019, novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, China. The number of cases has increased rapidly but information on the clinical characteristics of affected patients is limited. Objective To describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCIP. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective, single-center case series of the 138 consecutive hospitalized patients with confirmed NCIP at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, China, from January 1 to January 28, 2020; final date of follow-up was February 3, 2020. Exposures Documented NCIP. Main Outcomes and Measures Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological, and treatment data were collected and analyzed. Outcomes of critically ill patients and noncritically ill patients were compared. Presumed hospital-related transmission was suspected if a cluster of health professionals or hospitalized patients in the same wards became infected and a possible source of infection could be tracked. Results Of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP, the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men. Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]). Common symptoms included fever (136 [98.6%]), fatigue (96 [69.6%]), and dry cough (82 [59.4%]). Lymphopenia (lymphocyte count, 0.8 × 109/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 0.6-1.1]) occurred in 97 patients (70.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (13.0 seconds [IQR, 12.3-13.7]) in 80 patients (58%), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (261 U/L [IQR, 182-403]) in 55 patients (39.9%). Chest computed tomographic scans showed bilateral patchy shadows or ground glass opacity in the lungs of all patients. Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n = 36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n = 102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, and 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation (4 were switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1%) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3%), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0). Conclusions and Relevance In this single-center case series of 138 hospitalized patients with confirmed NCIP in Wuhan, China, presumed hospital-related transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients, 26% of patients received ICU care, and mortality was 4.3%.

negative: COVID-19 Progression Timeline and Effectiveness of Response-to-Spread Interventions across the United States Motivated by the rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in the United States beginning March 2020, we forecast the disease spread and assess the effectiveness of containment strategies by using an estalished network-driven epidemic dynamic model. Our model is initialized using the daily counts of active and confirmed COVID-19 cases across the US. Based on our model predictions for the March 14-16 timeframe, the national epidemic peak could be expected to arrive by early June, corresponding to a daily active count of ≈ 7% of the US population, if no containment plans are implemented. Epidemic peaks are expected to arrive in the states of Washington and New York by May 21 and 25, respectively. With a modest 25% reduction in COVID-19 transmissibility via community-level interventions, the epidemic progression could be delayed by up to 34 days. Wholesale interstate traffic restriction is ineffective in delaying the epidemic outbreak, but it does desynchronize the arrival of state-wise epidemic peaks, which could potentially alleviate the burden on limited available medical resources. In addition to forecasting the arrival timeline of the state-wise epidemic peaks, we attempt at informing the optimal timing necessary to enforce community-level interventions. Our findings underscore the pressing need for preparedness and timely interventions in states with a large fraction of the vulnerable uninsured and liquid-asset-poverty populations.

negative: Automatic Detection of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in X-ray and CT Images: A Machine Learning-Based Approach The newly identified Coronavirus pneumonia, subsequently termed COVID-19, is highly transmittable and pathogenic with no clinically approved antiviral drug or vaccine available for treatment. The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are dry cough, sore throat, and fever. Symptoms can progress to a severe form of pneumonia with critical complications, including septic shock, pulmonary edema, acute respiratory distress syndrome and multi-organ failure. While medical imaging is not currently recommended in Canada for primary diagnosis of COVID-19, computer-aided diagnosis systems could assist in the early detection of COVID-19 abnormalities and help to monitor the progression of the disease, potentially reduce mortality rates. In this study, we compare popular deep learning-based feature extraction frameworks for automatic COVID-19 classification. To obtain the most accurate feature, which is an essential component of learning, MobileNet, DenseNet, Xception, ResNet, InceptionV3, InceptionResNetV2, VGGNet, NASNet were chosen amongst a pool of deep convolutional neural networks. The extracted features were then fed into several machine learning classifiers to classify subjects as either a case of COVID-19 or a control. This approach avoided task-specific data pre-processing methods to support a better generalization ability for unseen data. The performance of the proposed method was validated on a publicly available COVID-19 dataset of chest X-ray and CT images. The DenseNet121 feature extractor with Bagging tree classifier achieved the best performance with 99% classification accuracy. The second-best learner was a hybrid of the a ResNet50 feature extractor trained by LightGBM with an accuracy of 98%.

negative: Effects of COVID 19 pandemic in daily life

negative: Risk following a severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure from a nocturnal hemodialysis patient utilizing continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP)

negative: Disease and healthcare burden of COVID-19 in the United States. As of 24 April 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has resulted in over 830,000 confirmed infections in the United States1. The incidence of COVID-19, the disease associated with this new coronavirus, continues to rise. The epidemic threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems, and identifying those regions where the disease burden is likely to be high relative to the rest of the country is critical for enabling prudent and effective distribution of emergency medical care and public health resources. Globally, the risk of severe outcomes associated with COVID-19 has consistently been observed to increase with age2,3. We used age-specific mortality patterns in tandem with demographic data to map projections of the cumulative case burden of COVID-19 and the subsequent burden on healthcare resources. The analysis was performed at the county level across the United States, assuming a scenario in which 20% of the population of each county acquires infection. We identified counties that will probably be consistently, heavily affected relative to the rest of the country across a range of assumptions about transmission patterns, such as the basic reproductive rate, contact patterns and the efficacy of quarantine. We observed a general pattern that per capita disease burden and relative healthcare system demand may be highest away from major population centers. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring equitable and adequate allocation of medical care and public health resources to communities outside of major urban areas.

negative: [Computed tomography (CT) utility for diagnosis and triage during COVID-19 pandemic]. The nasopharyngeal smear with PCR analysis is the first diagnostic test proposed to confirm infection with COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2. However, its usefulness in emergency centers is limited due to its imperfect sensitivity (56-83 %), limited availability and the time required to obtain results. For this reason, the chest CT-scan has been proposed as a rapid triage tool for diagnosis in these suspect Covid-19 patients. However, its specificity is limited, exposing to the risk of over-diagnosis, and further data are needed to confirm its usefulness, and to highlight the possible prognostic value of the CT, in detecting early lesions associated with poor outcome, indicating the need for admission to intensive care.

negative: Systematic Comparison of Two Animal-to-Human Transmitted Human Coronaviruses: SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV After the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in the world in 2003, human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have been reported as pathogens that cause severe symptoms in respiratory tract infections. Recently, a new emerged HCoV isolated from the respiratory epithelium of unexplained pneumonia patients in the Wuhan seafood market caused a major disease outbreak and has been named the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This virus causes acute lung symptoms, leading to a condition that has been named as “coronavirus disease 2019” (COVID-19). The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and of SARS-CoV caused widespread fear and concern and has threatened global health security. There are some similarities and differences in the epidemiology and clinical features between these two viruses and diseases that are caused by these viruses. The goal of this work is to systematically review and compare between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in the context of their virus incubation, originations, diagnosis and treatment methods, genomic and proteomic sequences, and pathogenic mechanisms.

negative: Studying Future Disasters and Crises: A Heuristic Approach Over time, new types of crises and disasters have emerged. We argue that new types of adversity will continue to emerge. In this chapter, we offer a framework to study and interpret new forms of crises and disasters. This framework is informed by historical insights on societal interpretations of crises and disasters. We are particularly focused here on the rise of transboundary crises – those crises that traverse boundaries between countries and policy systems. We identify the characteristics of these transboundary disruptions, sketch a few scenarios and explore the societal vulnerabilities to this type of threat. We end by discussing some possible implications for planning and preparation practices.

negative: What we have learnt from the SARS epdemics in mainland China? Abstract This article provides an overview of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics in mainland China and of what we have learned since the outbreak. The epidemics spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two regions: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing and its surrounding areas. The resulting case fatality ratio of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries and regions, partly due to younger-aged patients and a higher proportion of community-acquired infections. Strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response were most important for controlling SARS. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited. Many recovered patients suffered from avascular osteonecrosis, as a consequence of corticosteroid usage during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable experience and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. Additionally, the epidemic has substantially improved infrastructures, surveillance systems, and capacity to response to health emergencies. In particular, a comprehensive nationwide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

negative: Discovery and Characterization of Novel RNA Viruses in Aquatic North American Wild Birds Wild birds are recognized viral reservoirs but our understanding about avian viral diversity is limited. We describe here three novel RNA viruses that we identified in oropharyngeal/cloacal swabs collected from wild birds. The complete genome of a novel gull metapneumovirus (GuMPV B29) was determined. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that this virus could represent a novel avian metapneumovirus (AMPV) sub-group, intermediate between AMPV-C and the subgroup of the other AMPVs. This virus was detected in an American herring (1/24, 4.2%) and great black-backed (4/26, 15.4%) gulls. A novel gull coronavirus (GuCoV B29) was detected in great black-backed (3/26, 11.5%) and American herring (2/24, 8.3%) gulls. Phylogenetic analyses of GuCoV B29 suggested that this virus could represent a novel species within the genus Gammacoronavirus, close to other recently identified potential novel avian coronaviral species. One GuMPV–GuCoV co-infection was detected. A novel duck calicivirus (DuCV-2 B6) was identified in mallards (2/5, 40%) and American black ducks (7/26, 26.9%). This virus, of which we identified two different types, was fully sequenced and was genetically closest to other caliciviruses identified in Anatidae, but more distant to other caliciviruses from birds in the genus Anas. These discoveries increase our knowledge about avian virus diversity and host distributions.

negative: Ecosystem approaches to the risk for schizophrenia

negative: Infectogenomics: Insights from the Host Genome into Infectious Diseases Five years into the human postgenomic era, we are gaining considerable knowledge about host-pathogen interactions through host genomes. This “infectogenomics” approach should yield further insights into both diagnostic and therapeutic advances, as well as normal cellular function.

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic from an ophthalmologist’s perspective Abstract The current COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading around the world. The first doctor to report this new disease was an ophthalmologist: this exemplifies the role of ophthalmologists in an infectious disease pandemic. Here we review how SARS-Cov2 affects the eye and discuss implications for ophthalmologists.

negative: Characterization of protein–protein interactions between the nucleocapsid protein and membrane protein of the SARS coronavirus Abstract The human coronavirus, associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV), was identified and molecularly characterized in 2003. Sequence analysis of the virus indicates that there is only 20% amino acid (aa) identity with known coronaviruses. Previous studies indicate that protein–protein interactions amongst various coronavirus proteins are critical for viral assembly. Yet, little sequence homology between the newly identified SARS-CoV and those previously studied coronaviruses suggests that determination of protein–protein interaction and identification of amino acid sequences, responsible for such interaction in SARS-CoV, are necessary for the elucidation of the molecular mechanism of SARS-CoV replication and rationalization of anti-SARS therapeutic intervention. In this study, we employed mammalian two-hybrid system to investigate possible interactions between SARS-CoV nucleocapsid (N) and the membrane (M) proteins. We found that interaction of the N and M proteins takes place in vivo and identified that a stretch of amino acids (168–208) in the N protein may be critical for such protein–protein interactions. Importantly, the same region has been found to be required for multimerization of the N protein (He et al., 2004) suggesting this region may be crucial in maintaining correct conformation of the N protein for self-interaction and interaction with the M protein.

negative: Rigidity of the Outer Shell Predicted by a Protein Intrinsic Disorder Model Sheds Light on the COVID-19 (Wuhan-2019-nCoV) Infectivity The world is currently witnessing an outbreak of a new coronavirus spreading quickly across China and affecting at least 24 other countries. With almost 65,000 infected, a worldwide death toll of at least 1370 (as of 14 February 2020), and with the potential to affect up to two-thirds of the world population, COVID-19 is considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be a global health emergency. The speed of spread and infectivity of COVID-19 (also known as Wuhan-2019-nCoV) are dramatically exceeding those of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). In fact, since September 2012, the WHO has been notified of 2494 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV, whereas the 2002–2003 epidemic of SARS affected 26 countries and resulted in more than 8000 cases. Therefore, although SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 are all the result of coronaviral infections, the causes of the coronaviruses differ dramatically in their transmissibility. It is likely that these differences in infectivity of coronaviruses can be attributed to the differences in the rigidity of their shells which can be evaluated using computational tools for predicting intrinsic disorder predisposition of the corresponding viral proteins.

negative: A virome sequencing approach to feline oral squamous cell carcinoma to evaluate viral causative factors Abstract Feline oral squamous cell carcinoma (FOSCC) may be the best naturally-occurring model of human head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). HNSCC can be broadly divided into human papillomavirus (HPV)-negative cancers and HPV-positive cancers where HPV is the causative agent. Previous studies in FOSCC have used both species-specific and species-nonspecific PCR primers that may be insensitive to the detection of PVs and other viruses that may be divergent from known sequences. ViroCap is a targeted capture and next generation sequencing tool that was designed to identify all known vertebrate DNA and RNA viruses. In this study we used a metagenomic approach using ViroCap for DNA viruses in 20 FOSCC, 9 normal feline oral mucosal, and 8 suspected PV positive control samples. We tested the hypothesis that viruses would be enriched in FOSCC compared to normal oral mucosa. The virome of the FOSCC and normal feline oral mucosa consisted of feline foamy virus in 7/20 and 2/9 (35% and 22%), feline torque teno virus in 2/20 and 0/9 (10% and 0%), alphaherpesvirus in 2/10 and 0/9 (10% and 0%), FIV (0% and 22%), Epstein-Barr virus in 1/20 and 0/9 (5% and 0%) and feline papillomavirus in 1/20 and 0/9 samples (5% and 0% respectively). Felis catus papillomavirus-3 was found in 1 of 20 FOSCC samples. A virus was not associated consistently with FOSCC. If PVs have a role in FOSCC it is at most a supplementary or uncommon role. FOSCC appears most closely related to HPV-negative HNSCC. Future research on FOSCC should focus on identifying genetic and environmental causes.

negative: Misinformation of COVID-19 on the Internet: Infodemiology Study BACKGROUND: The internet has become an important source of health information for users worldwide. The novel coronavirus caused a pandemic search for information with broad dissemination of false or misleading health information. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality and readability of online information about the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), which was a trending topic on the internet, using validated instruments and relating the quality of information to its readability. METHODS: The search was based on the term “Wuhan Coronavirus” on the Google website (February 6, 2020). At the search time, the terms “COVID-19” or “SARS-CoV-2” (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) did not exist. Critical analysis was performed on the first 110 hits using the Health on the Net Foundation Code of Conduct (HONcode), the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) benchmark, the DISCERN instrument, and Google ranking. RESULTS: The first 110 websites were critically analyzed, and only 1.8% (n=2) of the websites had the HONcode seal. The JAMA benchmark showed that 39.1% (n=43) of the websites did not have any of the categories required by this tool, and only 10.0% (11/110) of the websites had the four quality criteria required by JAMA. The DISCERN score showed that 70.0% (n=77) of the websites were evaluated as having a low score and none were rated as having a high score. CONCLUSIONS: Nonhealth personnel and the scientific community need to be aware about the quality of the information they read and produce, respectively. The Wuhan coronavirus health crisis misinformation was produced by the media, and the misinformation was obtained by users from the internet. The use of the internet has a risk to public health, and, in cases like this, the governments should be developing strategies to regulate health information on the internet without censuring the population. By February 6, 2020, no quality information was available on the internet about COVID-19.

negative: From SARS to MERS, Thrusting Coronaviruses into the Spotlight Coronaviruses (CoVs) have formerly been regarded as relatively harmless respiratory pathogens to humans. However, two outbreaks of severe respiratory tract infection, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), as a result of zoonotic CoVs crossing the species barrier, caused high pathogenicity and mortality rates in human populations. This brought CoVs global attention and highlighted the importance of controlling infectious pathogens at international borders. In this review, we focus on our current understanding of the epidemiology, pathogenesis, prevention, and treatment of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, as well as provides details on the pivotal structure and function of the spike proteins (S proteins) on the surface of each of these viruses. For building up more suitable animal models, we compare the current animal models recapitulating pathogenesis and summarize the potential role of host receptors contributing to diverse host affinity in various species. We outline the research still needed to fully elucidate the pathogenic mechanism of these viruses, to construct reproducible animal models, and ultimately develop countermeasures to conquer not only SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, but also these emerging coronaviral diseases.

negative: Pandemic Influenza (H1N1): Our Canadian Response The emergence of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 in spring 2009 has provided a real test to the pandemic preparations that Canada, other countries and the World Health Organization have undertaken. Although formidable challenges remain, Canada is as well prepared as any country to address the second wave of the pandemic expected in the fall.

negative: Beware: Gastrointestinal symptoms can be a manifestation of COVID-19 Abstract Background There is a growing number of reports of COVID-19 cases presenting gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms. Aims To review studies reporting GI symptoms among COVID-19 patients. Results Fifteen papers (2800 patients) were identified. Frequency of GI symptoms varied from 3.0% to 39.6%, including diarrhea: 7.5%, nausea: 4.5%, anorexia: 4.4%, vomiting: 1.3%, abdominal pain: 0.5%, belching/reflux: 0.3%. These may be the first manifestation of COVID-19, however, there is controversy whether these reflect better or worst prognosis. Finally, the potential relationship with the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) cell receptor in the digestive tract as the virus entry route, is discussed. Conclusions GI symptoms may be common in COVID-19 may be the first manifestation before fever and respiratory symptoms. Therefore, clinicians and gastroenterologists need to be aware of these atypical cases during the current pandemic and of the fecal–oral transmission, and preventive measures may be implemented.

negative: Coronavirus and oil price crash Coronavirus (COVID-19) creates fear and uncertainty, hitting the global economy and amplifying the financial markets volatility. The oil price reaction to COVID-19 was gradually accommodated until March 09, 2020, when, 49 days after the release of the first coronavirus monitoring report by the World Health Organization (WHO), Saudi Arabia floods the market with oil. As a result, international prices drop with more than 20% in one single day. Against this background, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of COVID-19 numbers on crude oil prices, while controlling for the impact of financial volatility and the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty. Our ARDL estimation shows that the COVID-19 daily reported cases of new infections have a marginal negative impact on the crude oil prices in the long run. Nevertheless, by amplifying the financial markets volatility, COVID-19 also has an indirect effect on the recent dynamics of crude oil prices.

negative: Clinical Consensus Recommendations Regarding Non-Invasive Respiratory Support in the Adult Patient with Acute Respiratory Failure Secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory tract infection caused by a newly emergent coronavirus, that was first recognized in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined the infection as a global pandemic and there is a health and social emergency for the management of this new infection. While most people with COVID-19 develop only mild or uncomplicated illness, approximately 14% develop severe disease that requires hospitalization and oxygen support, and 5% require admission to an intensive care unit. In severe cases, COVID-19 can be complicated by the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis and septic shock, and multiorgan failure. This consensus document has been prepared on evidence-informed guidelines developed by a multidisciplinary panel of health care providers from four Spanish scientific societies (Spanish Society of Intensive Care Medicine [SEMICYUC], Spanish Society of Pulmonologists [SEPAR], Spanish Society of Emergency [SEMES], Spanish Society of Anesthesiology, Reanimation, and Pain [SEDAR]) with experience in the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and other viral infections, including SARS, as well as sepsis and ARDS. The document provides clinical recommendations for the noninvasive respiratory support (noninvasive ventilation, high flow oxygen therapy with nasal cannula) in any patient with suspected or confirmed presentation of COVID-19 with acute respiratory failure. This consensus guidance should serve as a foundation for optimized supportive care to ensure the best possible chance for survival and to allow for reliable comparison of investigational therapeutic interventions as part of randomized controlled trials.

negative: COVID-19: Stroke Admissions, Emergency Department Visits, and Prevention Clinic Referrals We assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic on code stroke activations in the emergency department, stroke unit admissions, and referrals to the stroke prevention clinic at London’s regional stroke center, serving a population of 1.8 million in Ontario, Canada. We found a 20% drop in the number of code strokes in 2020 compared to 2019, immediately after the first cases of COVID-19 were officially confirmed. There were no changes in the number of stroke admissions and there was a 22% decrease in the number of clinic referrals, only after the provincial lockdown. Our findings suggest that the decrease in code strokes was mainly driven by patient-related factors such as fear to be exposed to the SARS-CoV-2, while the reduction in clinic referrals was largely explained by hospital policies and the Government lockdown.

negative: On the assessment of more reliable COVID-19 infected number: the italian case. COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is the most recent pandemic disease the world is currently managing. It started in China at the end of 2019, and it is diffusing throughout Italy, one of the most affected countries, and it is currently spreading through European countries and USA. Patients affected by COVID-19 are identified employing medical swabs applied mainly to (i) citizens with COVID-19 symptoms such as flu or high temperature, or (ii) citizens that had contacts with COVID-19 patients. A percentage of COVID-19 affected patients needs hospitalisation, whereas a portion needs to be treated in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Nevertheless, it is a matter of current intuition that COVID-19 infected citizens are more than those detected, and sometime the infection is detected too late. Thus there are many efforts in both tracking people activities as well as diffusing low cost reliable COVID-19 tests for early detection. Starting from mortality rates of diseases caused by viruses in the same family (e.g. MERS, SARS, H1N1), we study the relations between the number of COVID-19 infections and the number of deaths, through Italian regions. We thus assess several infections being higher than the ones currently measured. We thus focus on the characterisation of the pandemic diffusion by estimating the infected number of patients versus the number of death. We use such an estimated number of infections, to foresee the effects of restriction actions adopted by governments to constrain virus diffusion. We finally think that our model can support the healthcare system to react when COVID-19 is increasing.

negative: Global threat of COVID 19 and evacuation of the citizens of different countries Beginning from China on December 2019, COVID-19 epidemic has spreaded all over the world in a short period of time and has been a pandemic. In challenge with this pandemic quarantine technique has been used widely after tens of years. In the course of the pandemic, many countries evacuated their citizens from affected regions and combined the evacuation with quarantine process. Some examples of these countries who evacuated their citizens are Germany, Italy, Spain, and USA. In further times, during the course of pandemic, according to spread, other countries evacuated their citizens from these countries too. Despite being the origin of the pandemic, in later times Wuhan was also a place where people were evacuated to. Evacuation and quarantine have caused social and psychological impacts on people and some of them took place in mainstream media. In this review article, evacuation and quarantine processes as well as the society’s reactions to these, have been compiled.

negative: Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has spread from China to 25 countries. Local cycles of transmission have already occurred in 12 countries after case importation. In Africa, Egypt has so far confirmed one case. The management and control of COVID-19 importations heavily rely on a country's health capacity. Here we evaluate the preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against their risk of importation of COVID-19. METHODS: We used data on the volume of air travel departing from airports in the infected provinces in China and directed to Africa to estimate the risk of importation per country. We determined the country's capacity to detect and respond to cases with two indicators: preparedness, using the WHO International Health Regulations Monitoring and Evaluation Framework; and vulnerability, using the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index. Countries were clustered according to the Chinese regions contributing most to their risk. FINDINGS: Countries with the highest importation risk (ie, Egypt, Algeria, and South Africa) have moderate to high capacity to respond to outbreaks. Countries at moderate risk (ie, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya) have variable capacity and high vulnerability. We identified three clusters of countries that share the same exposure to the risk originating from the provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, and the city of Beijing, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Many countries in Africa are stepping up their preparedness to detect and cope with COVID-19 importations. Resources, intensified surveillance, and capacity building should be urgently prioritised in countries with moderate risk that might be ill-prepared to detect imported cases and to limit onward transmission. FUNDING: EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020, Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

negative: Estimated Average Probabilities of COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death From Community Contact in the United States Importance: Case and death counts, government rules limiting social contact, media attention, peer behaviors, and analogies to war have all influenced public perceptions of risk to COVID-19. During an epidemic, the general public may not be accurately interpreting their individual risks from COVID19. U.S. public sentiment surveys indicate a high level of apprehension about routine community activities. Sufficient data allow estimating individual-level probabilities of infection, hospitalization, and death from community level contacts. Objective: Our objective is to estimate the average probability of acquiring COVID19 infection, being hospitalized or dying from a single unprotected and substantive community level contact with an individual of unknown infection status. Design: We estimate individual level probability of a contact resulting in infection using established principles of infection transmission, published data on the secondary attack rate, the current case incidence, the infectious period, the proportion of asymptomatic infection, and the case hospitalization and infection fatality ratios. Setting: U.S. Counties Outcomes: Probabilities of COVID19 infection, hospitalization, and death from a single unprotected person-contact in a community setting. Results: Among the 100 most populous US Counties, the median probability of COVID19 infection transmission at the end of May 2020 is 1 infection per 3836 unprotected community-level contacts (Range: 626 to 31,800). For a 50 to 64 year old individual, the estimated median probability of hospitalization is 1 hospitalization per 852,000 community level person contacts (Range: 139,000 to 7,080,000). For a 50 to 64 year old individual, the median probability of a fatality is 1 fatality per 19.1million community-level person-contacts (Range,:3.13 million to 159,000,000 million). Conclusions and Relevance: Across the country, current probabilities of infection transmission, hospitalization, and death from COVID19 vary substantially, yet severe outcomes are still rare events. Individuals may be overestimating their risks of hospitalization and death and a moderate number and frequency of community contacts is unlikely to overwhelm hospital capacity in most U.S. settings. Systematic public reporting of COVID19 case incidence and prevalence of seropositivity by age, risk group, locality and setting would improve individual-level risk estimation.

negative: Consensus on standardized diagnosis and treatment for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture patients during epidemic of corona virus disease 2019/ 中华创伤杂志 Since December 2019, the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been reported in Wuhan, Hubei Province. Almost 70% of patients susceptible to 2019-nCoV are over age of 50 years, with extremely large proportion of critical illness and death of the elderly patients. Meanwhile, the elderly patients are at high risk of osteoporotic fractures especially osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures (OVCF). During the prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic, orthopedists are confronted with the following difficulties including how to screen and protect OVCF patients, how to accurately diagnose and assess the condition of OVCF patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, and how to develop reasonable treatment plans and comprehensive protective measures in emergency and outpatient clinics. In order to standardize the diagnosis and treatment of patients with OVCF diagnosed with COVID-19, the authors jointly develop this expert consensus. The consensus systematically recommends the standardized emergency and outpatient screening and confirmation procedures for OVCF patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 and protective measures for emergency and outpatient clinics. Moreover, the consensus describes the grading and classification of OVCF patients diagnosed with COVID-19 according to the severity of illness and recommends different treatment plans and corresponding protective measures based on the different types and epidemic prevention and control requirements.

negative: Drugs supply and pharmaceutical care management practices at a designated hospital during the COVID-19 epidemic Abstract The coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus that was first detected at the end of December 2019. The epidemic has affected various regions of China in different degrees. As the situations evolve, the COVID-19 had been confirmed in many countries, and made a assessment that it can be characterized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. Drugs are the main treatment of COVID-19 patients. Pharmaceutical service offers drug safety ensurance for COVID-19 patients. According to COVID-19 prevention and control policy and requirements, combined with series of diagnosis and treatment plans, pharmacists in the first provincial-level COVID-19 diagnosis and treatment unit in Jilin Province in Northeast China have established the management practices of drug supply and pharmaceutical care from four aspects: personnel, drugs supply management, off-label drug use management and pharmaceutical care. During the outbreak, the pharmaceutical department of THJU completed its assigned workload to ensure drug supply. So far, no nosocomial infections and medication errors have occurred, which has stabilized the mood of the staff and boosted the pharmacists' confidence in fighting the epidemic. For the treatment of COVID-19, pharmacists conducted adverse reaction monitoring and participated in the multidisciplinary consultation of COVID-19. Up to now, the COVID-19 patients admitted to THJU have not shown any new serious adverse reactions and been cured finally. The hospital pharmacy department timely adjusted the work mode, and the formed management practices is a powerful guarantee for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic. This paper summarized the details and practices of drug supply and pharmaceutical services management to provide experience for the people who involving in COVID-19 prevention and contain in other abroad epidemic areas.

negative: Management Guidelines for Obstetric Patients and Neonates Born to Mothers With Suspected or Probable Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Abstract Objective This document summarizes the limited experience of SARS in pregnancy and suggests guidelines for management. Outcomes Cases reported from Asia suggest that maternal and fetal outcomes are worsened by SARS during pregnancy. Evidence Medline was searched for relevant articles published in English from 2000 to 2007. Case reports were reviewed and expert opinion sought. Values Recommendations were made according to the guidelines developed by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care. Sponsors The Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Recommendations 1. All hospitals should have infection control systems in place to ensure that alerts regarding changes in exposure risk factors for SARS or other potentially serious communicable diseases are conveyed promptly to clinical units, including the labour and delivery unit. (III-C) 2. At times of SARS outbreaks, all pregnant patients being assessed or admitted to the hospital should be screened for symptoms of and risk factors for SARS. (III-C) 3. Upon arrival in the labour triage unit, pregnant patients with suspected and probable SARS should be placed in a negative pressure isolation room with at least 6 air exchanges per hour. All labour and delivery units caring for suspected and probable SARS should have available at least one room in which patients can safely labour and deliver while in need of airborne isolation. (III-C) 4. If possible, labour and delivery (including operative delivery or Caesarean section) should be managed in a designated negative pressure isolation room, by designated personnel with specialized infection control preparation and protective gear. (III-C) 5. Either regional or general anaesthesia may be appropriate for delivery of patients with SARS. (III-C) 6. Neonates of mothers with SARS should be isolated in a designated unit until the infant has been well for 10 days, or until the mother’s period of isolation is complete. The mother should not breastfeed during this period. (III-C) 7. A multidisciplinary team, consisting of obstetricians, nurses, pediatricians, infection control specialists, respiratory therapists, and anaesthesiologists, should be identified in each unit and be responsible for the unit organization and implementation of SARS management protocols. (III-C) 8. Staff caring for pregnant SARS patients should not care for other pregnant patients. Staff caring for pregnant SARS patients should be actively monitored for fever and other symptoms of SARS. Such individuals should not work in the presence of any SARS symptoms within 10 days of exposure to a SARS patient. (III-C) 9. All health care personnel, trainees, and support staff should be trained in infection control management and containment to prevent spread of the SARS virus. (III-A) 10. Regional health authorities in conjunction with hospital staff should consider designating specific facilities or health care units, including primary, secondary, or tertiary health care centres, to care for patients with SARS or similar illnesses. (III-A)

negative: Clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients undergoing surgeries during the incubation period of COVID-19 infection Abstract Background The outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly worldwide. In the early stage, we encountered a small but meaningful number of patients who were unintentionally scheduled for elective surgeries during the incubation period of COVID-19. We intended to describe their clinical characteristics and outcomes. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 34 patients underwent elective surgeries during the incubation period of COVID-19 at Renmin Hospital, Zhongnan Hospital, Tongji Hospital and Central Hospital in Wuhan, from January 1 to February 5, 2020. Findings Of the 34 operative patients, the median age was 55 years (IQR, 43–63), and 20 (58·8%) patients were women. All patients developed COVID-19 pneumonia shortly after surgery with abnormal findings on chest computed tomographic scans. Common symptoms included fever (31 [91·2%]), fatigue (25 [73·5%]) and dry cough (18 [52·9%]). 15 (44·1%) patients required admission to intensive care unit (ICU) during disease progression, and 7 patients (20·5%) died after admission to ICU. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients were older, were more likely to have underlying comorbidities, underwent more difficult surgeries, as well as more severe laboratory abnormalities (eg, hyperleukocytemia, lymphopenia). The most common complications in non-survivors included ARDS, shock, arrhythmia and acute cardiac injury. Interpretation In this retrospective cohort study of 34 operative patients with confirmed COVID-19, 15 (44·1%) patients needed ICU care, and the mortality rate was 20·5%. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China.

negative: A Pediatric Emergency Department Protocol to Avoid Intra-Hospital Dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 during the Outbreak in Bergamo, Italy The pandemic of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 disease affected Northern Italy, spreading from the Bergamo province to the entire country. During reorganization of our emergency department to support patients presenting with coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 disease, we aimed to evaluate whether children play a role in intrahospital spread of the infection.

negative: Canine Respiratory Coronavirus: An Emerging Pathogen in the Canine Infectious Respiratory Disease Complex Infectious respiratory disease in dogs is a constant challenge because of the involvement of several pathogens and environmental factors. Canine respiratory coronavirus (CRCoV) is a new coronavirus of dogs, which is widespread in North America, Japan, and several European countries. CRCoV has been associated with respiratory disease, particularly in kenneled dog populations. The virus is genetically and antigenically distinct from enteric canine coronavirus; therefore, specific tests are required for diagnosis.

negative: COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth Background: In December 2019, pneumonia infected with a novel coronavirus burst in Wuhan, China. Now the situation is almost controlled in China but is worse outside China. We aimed to build a mathematical model to capture the global trend of epidemics outside China. Methods: In this retrospective, outside-China diagnosis number reported from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2020 was downloaded from WHO website. We develop a simple regression model on these numbers: log10 (Nt+34)=0.0515*t+2.075 where Nt is the total diagnosed patient till the ith day, t=1 at Feb 1. Findings: Based on this model, we estimate that there have been about 34 unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China. The global trend is approximately exponential, with the rate of 10 folds every 19 days.

negative: Communication, transparency key as Canada faces new coronavirus threat

negative: Maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia: a case-control study BACKGROUND: The ongoing epidemics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have caused serious concerns about its potential adverse effects on pregnancy. There are limited data on maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to compare clinical characteristics, maternal and neonatal outcomes of pregnant women with and without COVID-19 pneumonia. RESULTS: During January 24 to February 29, 2020, there were sixteen pregnant women with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia and eighteen suspected cases who were admitted to labor in the third trimester. Two had vaginal delivery and the rest took cesarean section. Few patients presented respiratory symptoms (fever and cough) on admission, but most had typical chest CT images of COVID-19 pneumonia. Compared to the controls, COVID-19 pneumonia patients had lower counts of white blood cells (WBC), neutrophils, C-reactive protein (CRP), and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) on admission. Increased levels of WBC, neutrophils, eosinophils, and CRP were found in postpartum blood tests of pneumonia patients. There were three (18.8%) and three (16.7%) of the mothers with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 pneumonia had preterm delivery due to maternal complications, which were significantly higher than the control group. None experienced respiratory failure during hospital stay. COVID-19 infection was not found in the newborns and none developed severe neonatal complications. CONCLUSION: Severe maternal and neonatal complications were not observed in pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia who had vaginal delivery or caesarean section. Mild respiratory symptoms of pregnant women with COVID-19 pneumonia highlight the need of effective screening on admission.

negative: Canada, Health System of Abstract With a population of 35million people spread over a vast area, Canada is a highly decentralized federation. Provincial governments have most of the responsibility for the governance, organization and delivery of health services although the Government of Canada has an important role in maintaining high level standards for universal health coverage through the Canada Health Act as well as pharmaceutical regulation, health research and data collection. With 70% of total health spending financed by federal, provincial and territorial governments, most are used to provide universal access to hospital and physicians services as well as more targeted coverage for prescription drugs and long-term care. In the last decade, provincial and territorial governments have focused on reorganizing their regional delivery systems and improving the quality, timeliness and patient experience with acute, chronic care and primary care medical services. While Canada's system of universal coverage for Medicare has been effective in providing deep financial protection, the narrow scope of coverage has resulted in gaps in coverage and equitable access.

negative: Herpes Simplex Virus Hepatitis in an Immunocompetent Adult: A Fatal Outcome due to Liver Failure Objective. To present a case of a healthy 41-year-old female who developed fulminant hepatic failure leading to death. The cause of hepatic failure identified on postmortem exam was herpes simplex virus hepatitis. Design. Observation of a single patient. Setting. Intensive care unit of a tertiary care university teaching hospital in Canada. Patient. 41-year-old previously healthy female presenting with a nonspecific viral illness and systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Intervention. The patient was treated with intravenous fluids and broad-spectrum antibiotics. On the second day of admission, she was found to have elevated transaminases, and, over 48 hours, she progressed to fulminant liver failure with disseminated intravascular coagulopathy, refractory lactic acidosis, and shock. She progressed to respiratory failure requiring intubation and mechanical ventilation. She was started on N-acetylcysteine, a bicarbonate infusion, hemodialysis, and multiple vasopressors and inotropes. Measurements and Main Results. Despite treatment, the patient died roughly 70 hours after her initial presentation to hospital. Her postmortem liver biopsy revealed herpes simplex virus hepatitis as her cause of death. Conclusions. Herpes simplex virus must be considered in all patients presenting with liver failure of unknown cause. If suspected, prompt treatment with acyclovir should be initiated.

negative: Evaluation of modified vaccinia virus Ankara based recombinant SARS vaccine in ferrets Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by a newly identified coronavirus (SARS-CoV) remains a threat to cause epidemics as evidenced by recent sporadic cases in China. In this communication, we evaluated the efficacy and safety of two SARS vaccine candidates based on the recombinant modified vaccinia Ankara (MVA) expressing SARS-CoV spike or nucleocapsid proteins in ferrets. No clinical signs were observed in all the ferrets challenged with SARS-CoV. On the other hand, vaccination did not prevent SARS-CoV infection in ferrets. In contrast, immunized ferrets (particularly those immunized with rMVA-spike) exhibited significantly stronger inflammatory responses and focal necrosis in liver tissue after SARS-CoV challenge than control animals. Thus, our data suggest that enhanced hepatitis is linked to vaccination with rMVA expressing SARS-CoV antigens.

negative: COVID-19 Outbreak Provides a Unique Platform to Study Behavioral Changes in Iran

negative: Psychiatric and neuropsychiatric presentations associated with severe coronavirus infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis with comparison to the COVID-19 pandemic BACKGROUND: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, coronaviruses caused two noteworthy outbreaks: severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), starting in 2002, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), starting in 2012. We aimed to assess the psychiatric and neuropsychiatric presentations of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases (from their inception until March 18, 2020), and medRxiv, bioRxiv, and PsyArXiv (between Jan 1, 2020, and April 10, 2020) were searched by two independent researchers for all English-language studies or preprints reporting data on the psychiatric and neuropsychiatric presentations of individuals with suspected or laboratory-confirmed coronavirus infection (SARS coronavirus, MERS coronavirus, or SARS coronavirus 2). We excluded studies limited to neurological complications without specified neuropsychiatric presentations and those investigating the indirect effects of coronavirus infections on the mental health of people who are not infected, such as those mediated through physical distancing measures such as self-isolation or quarantine. Outcomes were psychiatric signs or symptoms; symptom severity; diagnoses based on ICD-10, DSM-IV, or the Chinese Classification of Mental Disorders (third edition) or psychometric scales; quality of life; and employment. Both the systematic review and the meta-analysis stratified outcomes across illness stages (acute vs post-illness) for SARS and MERS. We used a random-effects model for the meta-analysis, and the meta-analytical effect size was prevalence for relevant outcomes, I2 statistics, and assessment of study quality. FINDINGS: 1963 studies and 87 preprints were identified by the systematic search, of which 65 peer-reviewed studies and seven preprints met inclusion criteria. The number of coronavirus cases of the included studies was 3559, ranging from 1 to 997, and the mean age of participants in studies ranged from 12·2 years (SD 4·1) to 68·0 years (single case report). Studies were from China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Canada, Saudi Arabia, France, Japan, Singapore, the UK, and the USA. Follow-up time for the post-illness studies varied between 60 days and 12 years. The systematic review revealed that during the acute illness, common symptoms among patients admitted to hospital for SARS or MERS included confusion (36 [27·9%; 95% CI 20·5-36·0] of 129 patients), depressed mood (42 [32·6%; 24·7-40·9] of 129), anxiety (46 [35·7%; 27·6-44·2] of 129), impaired memory (44 [34·1%; 26·2-42·5] of 129), and insomnia (54 [41·9%; 22·5-50·5] of 129). Steroid-induced mania and psychosis were reported in 13 (0·7%) of 1744 patients with SARS in the acute stage in one study. In the post-illness stage, depressed mood (35 [10·5%; 95% CI 7·5-14·1] of 332 patients), insomnia (34 [12·1%; 8·6-16·3] of 280), anxiety (21 [12·3%; 7·7-17·7] of 171), irritability (28 [12·8%; 8·7-17·6] of 218), memory impairment (44 [18·9%; 14·1-24·2] of 233), fatigue (61 [19·3%; 15·1-23·9] of 316), and in one study traumatic memories (55 [30·4%; 23·9-37·3] of 181) and sleep disorder (14 [100·0%; 88·0-100·0] of 14) were frequently reported. The meta-analysis indicated that in the post-illness stage the point prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder was 32·2% (95% CI 23·7-42·0; 121 of 402 cases from four studies), that of depression was 14·9% (12·1-18·2; 77 of 517 cases from five studies), and that of anxiety disorders was 14·8% (11·1-19·4; 42 of 284 cases from three studies). 446 (76·9%; 95% CI 68·1-84·6) of 580 patients from six studies had returned to work at a mean follow-up time of 35·3 months (SD 40·1). When data for patients with COVID-19 were examined (including preprint data), there was evidence for delirium (confusion in 26 [65%] of 40 intensive care unit patients and agitation in 40 [69%] of 58 intensive care unit patients in one study, and altered consciousness in 17 [21%] of 82 patients who subsequently died in another study). At discharge, 15 (33%) of 45 patients with COVID-19 who were assessed had a dysexecutive syndrome in one study. At the time of writing, there were two reports of hypoxic encephalopathy and one report of encephalitis. 68 (94%) of the 72 studies were of either low or medium quality. INTERPRETATION: If infection with SARS-CoV-2 follows a similar course to that with SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV, most patients should recover without experiencing mental illness. SARS-CoV-2 might cause delirium in a significant proportion of patients in the acute stage. Clinicians should be aware of the possibility of depression, anxiety, fatigue, post-traumatic stress disorder, and rarer neuropsychiatric syndromes in the longer term. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and University College London.

negative: Chapter 4 Communicable Diseases Abstract Sanitation, food control, vaccines, and antibiotics have reduced the toll of communicable diseases, saving millions of lives. Smallpox was eradicated in 1977, and poliomyelitis eradication is close. Measles mortality has reduced drastically yet outbreaks occur where immunization lags. HIV/AIDS emerged in the 1980s, grew into a global pandemic costing millions of lives, and despite progress remains a major global health issue. Malaria and tuberculosis still cause millions of deaths. Influenza pandemics with new, deadly versions continue to appear. Neglected tropical diseases are responding to global donor efforts. Newly emerging diseases move to new regions and became endemic, and deadly localized hemorrhagic fevers threaten to transmit more widely. Rapid mass travel allows infectious diseases in isolated villages to quickly become global threats. New strains of viruses, antibiotic resistance, and microorganisms causing chronic diseases are challenges for infectious disease control requiring continuing political, financial, and scientific support, and much tenacity.

negative: An empirical estimate of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 from the first Italian outbreak Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been spread-ing globally for months, yet the infection fatality ratio of the disease is still uncertain. This is partly because of inconsistencies in testing and death reporting standards across countries. Our purpose is to provide accurate estimates which do not rely on testing and death count data directly but only use population level statistics. Methods: We collected demographic and death records data from the Italian Institute of Statistics. We focus on the area in Italy that experienced the initial outbreak of COVID-19 and estimated a Bayesian model fitting age-stratified mortality data from 2020 and previous years. We also assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to alternative assumptions on the proportion of population infected. Findings: We estimate an overall infection fatality rate of 1.29% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.89 - 2.01), as well as large differences by age, with a low infection fatality rate of 0.05% for under 60 year old (CrI 0-.19) and a substantially higher 4.25% (CrI 3.01-6.39) for people above 60 years of age. In our sensitivity analysis, we found that even under extreme assumptions, our method delivered useful information. For instance, even if only 10% of the population were infected, the infection fatality rate would not rise above 0.2% for people under 60. Interpretation: Our empirical estimates based on population level data show a sharp difference in fatality rates between young and old people and firmly rule out overall fatality ratios below 0.5% in populations with more than 30% over 60 years old.

negative: Clinical and historical features associated with severe COVID-19 infection: a systematic review Background: There is an urgent need for rapid assessment methods to guide pathways of care for COVID-19 patients, as frontline providers need to make challenging decisions surrounding rationing of resources. This study aimed to evaluate existing literature for factors associated with COVID-19 illness severity. Methods: A systematic review identified all studies published between 1/12/19 and 19/4/20 that used primary data and inferential statistics to assess associations between the outcome of interest - disease severity - and historical or clinical variables. PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and the WHO Database of Publications on Coronavirus Disease were searched. Data were independently extracted and cross-checked independently by two reviewers using PRISMA guidelines, after which they were descriptively analysed. Quality and risk of bias in available evidence were assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) framework. This review was registered with PROSPERO, registration number CRD42020178098. Results: Of the 6202 relevant articles found, 63 were eligible for inclusion; these studies analysed data from 17648 COVID-19 patients. The majority (n=57, 90.5%) were from China and nearly all (n=51, 90.5%) focussed on admitted adult patients. Patients had a median age of 52.5 years and 52.8% were male. The predictors most frequently associated with COVID-19 disease severity were age, absolute lymphocyte count, hypertension, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP), and history of any pre-existing medical condition. Conclusion: This study identified multiple variables likely to be predictive of severe COVID-19 illness. Due to the novelty of SARS-CoV-2 infection, there is currently no severity prediction tool designed to, or validated for, COVID-19 illness severity. Findings may inform such a tool that can offer guidance on clinical treatment and disposition, and ultimately reduce morbidity and mortality due to the pandemic.

negative: Atlas of ACE2 gene expression in mammals reveals novel insights in transmisson of SARS-Cov-2 Background COVID-19 has become a worldwide pandemic. It is caused by a novel coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 with elusive origin. SARS-CoV-2 infects mammalian cells by binding to ACE2, a transmembrane protein. Therefore, the conservation of ACE2 and its expression pattern across mammalian species, which are yet to be comprehensively investigated, may provide valuable insights into tracing potential hosts of SARS-CoV-2. Methods We analyzed gene conservation of ACE2 across mammals and collected more than 140 transcriptome datasets from human and common mammalian species, including presumed hosts of SARS-CoV-2 and other animals in close contact with humans. In order to enable comparisons across species and tissues, we used a unified pipeline to quantify and normalize ACE2 expression levels. Results We first found high conservation of ACE2 genes among common mammals at both DNA and peptide levels, suggesting that a broad range of mammalian species can potentially be the hosts of SARS-CoV-2. Next, we showed that high level of ACE2 expression in certain human tissues is consistent with clinical symptoms of COVID-19 patients. Furthermore, we observed that ACE2 expressed in a species-specific manner in the mammals examined. Notably, high expression in skin and eyes in cat and dog suggested that these animals may play roles in transmitting SARS-CoV-2 to humans. Conclusions Through building the first atlas of ACE2 expression in pets and livestock, we identified species and tissues susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, yielding novel insights into the viral transmission.

negative: COVID-19 and pets: When pandemic meets panic Abstract As the novel coronavirus outbreak spreads globally with devastating effects on human health, pets are also becoming unnecessary victims amidst the pandemic panic. Many have been reluctantly left home alone by owners who have been forced to temporarily evacuate their homes. And, although no evidence exists to indicate that they can either transmit the virus or develop its associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), fear among the public that pets might play a role in spreading COVID-19 has resulted in pets being abandoned or even killed. This article outlines some of the ways in which the current pandemic has negatively impacted the welfare of pets. It also highlights the relationships between animal, human, and environmental health, as well as the importance of taking a collaborative transdisciplinary One Health approach to help prevent future COVID-19 outbreaks.

negative: Immune Cell Profiling of COVID-19 Patients in the Recovery Stage by Single-Cell Sequencing COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 has recently affected over 200,000 people and killed more than 8000. Immune system dysregulation such as lymphopenia and inflammatory cytokine storm has been observed in COVID-19 patients, but it remains unclear for the change of key immune cell subsets and their states during COVID-19. Here, we applied single-cell technology to comprehensively characterize transcriptional changes of peripheral blood mononuclear cells in ten patients recovered from COVID-19. Compared with healthy control, COVID-19 induced a unique signature of immune cells in humans, especially in the early recovery stage (ERS). In ERS patients, T cells were decreased remarkably, while monocytes were increased. A detailed analysis of monocytes showed that there was an increased ratio of classical CD14++ monocytes with highly inflammatory genes expression, as well as a greater abundance of CD14++IL1B+ monocytes. For nature killer (NK) cells and T cells, CD4+ T cells were significantly decreased and expressed high level of inflammatory markers, while NK cells were increased. In addition, T cells were highly expanded clone, especially in CD4+ T memory cells and CD8+ T cells. Among B cells, plasma cells were increased remarkably, and naïve B cells were reduced. Our study also identified several novel B cell receptor (BCR) changes (such as IGHV1-8 and IGHV3-7), and confirmed isotypes (IGKV3-11 and IGHV3-21) previously used for virus vaccine development. The strongest pairing frequencies, IGHV3-23+IGHJ4, indicated a monoclonal state associated with SARS-CoV-2 specificity. Furthermore, integrated analysis predicated that IL-1B and M-CSF may be novel candidate target gene for inflammatory storm, and TNFSF13, IL-18 and IL-4 may be benefit for the recovery of COVID-19 patients. Our study provides the first evidence of inflammatory immune signature in early recovery stage, suggesting that the COVID-19 patients are still vulnerable after hospital discharge. Our identification of novel BCR signaling may lead to the development of vaccine and antibodies for the treatment of COVID-19.

negative: Sequence analysis of the membrane protein gene of human coronavirus 229E Abstract Human coronaviruses (HCV) are ubiquitous pathogens which cause respiratory, gastrointestinal, and possibly neurological disorders. To better understand the molecular biology of the prototype HCV-229E strain, the complete nucleotide sequence of the membrane protein (M) gene was determined from cloned cDNA. The open reading frame is preceded by a consensus transcriptional initiation sequence UCUAAACU, identical to the one found upstream of the N gene. The M gene encodes a 225-amino acid polypeptide with a molecular weight (MW) of 25,822, slightly higher than the apparent MW of 19,000–22,000 observed for the unprocessed M protein obtained after in vitro translation and immunoprecipitation. The M amino acid sequence presents a significant degree of homology (38%) with its counterpart of transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus (TGEV). The M protein of HCV-229E is highly hydrophobic and its hydropathicity profile shows a transmembranous region composed of three major hydrophobic domains characteristic of a typical coronavirus M protein. About 10% (20 amino acids) of the HCV-229E M protein constitutes a hydrophilic and probably external portion. One N-glycosylation and three potential O-glycosylation sites are found in this exposed domain.

negative: Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes In a phylogenetic network analysis of 160 complete human severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) genomes, we find three central variants distinguished by amino acid changes, which we have named A, B, and C, with A being the ancestral type according to the bat outgroup coronavirus. The A and C types are found in significant proportions outside East Asia, that is, in Europeans and Americans. In contrast, the B type is the most common type in East Asia, and its ancestral genome appears not to have spread outside East Asia without first mutating into derived B types, pointing to founder effects or immunological or environmental resistance against this type outside Asia. The network faithfully traces routes of infections for documented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, indicating that phylogenetic networks can likewise be successfully used to help trace undocumented COVID-19 infection sources, which can then be quarantined to prevent recurrent spread of the disease worldwide.

negative: Practical recommendations for critical care and anesthesiology teams caring for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) patients A global health emergency has been declared by the World Health Organization as the 2019-nCoV outbreak spreads across the world, with confirmed patients in Canada. Patients infected with 2019-nCoV are at risk for developing respiratory failure and requiring admission to critical care units. While providing optimal treatment for these patients, careful execution of infection control measures is necessary to prevent nosocomial transmission to other patients and to healthcare workers providing care. Although the exact mechanisms of transmission are currently unclear, human-to-human transmission can occur, and the risk of airborne spread during aerosol-generating medical procedures remains a concern in specific circumstances. This paper summarizes important considerations regarding patient screening, environmental controls, personal protective equipment, resuscitation measures (including intubation), and critical care unit operations planning as we prepare for the possibility of new imported cases or local outbreaks of 2019-nCoV. Although understanding of the 2019-nCoV virus is evolving, lessons learned from prior infectious disease challenges such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome will hopefully improve our state of readiness regardless of the number of cases we eventually manage in Canada.

negative: Malnutrition Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Considerations for Registered Dietitian Nutritionists Evidence Analysis Center Recent evidence examining adults infected with COVID-19 has indicated a significant impact of malnutrition on health outcomes. Individuals who have multiple comorbidities, are older adults, or who are malnourished are at increased risk of being admitted to the intensive care unit and of mortality from COVID-19 infections. Hence, nutrition care to identify and address malnutrition is critical in treating and preventing further adverse health outcomes from COVID-19 infection. This document provides guidance and practice considerations for Registered Dietitian Nutritionists (RDNs) providing nutrition care for adults with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection in the hospital, outpatient, or homecare settings. In addition, this document discusses and provides considerations for RDNs working with individuals at risk of malnutrition secondary to food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Mathematical Modeling of the Spread of COVID-19 in Moscow and Russian Regions To model the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Russian regions and in Moscow, a discrete logistic equation describing the increase in the number of cases is used. To check the adequacy of the mathematical model, the simulation results were compared with the spread of coronavirus in China, in a number of European and Asian countries, and the United States. The parameters of the logistics equation for Russia, Moscow and other large regions were determined in the interval (01.03 - 08.04). A comparative analysis of growth rates of COVID-19 infected population for different countries and regions is presented. Various scenarios of the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus in Moscow and in the regions of Russia are considered. For each scenario, curves for the daily new cases and graphs for the increase in the total number of cases were obtained, and the dynamics of infection spread by day was studied. Peak times, epidemic periods, the number of infected people at the peak and their growth were determined.

negative: Unknown unknowns - COVID-19 and potential global mortality COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is currently a global pandemic. This paper will attempt to estimate global infection rates and potential resultant mortality in the absence of effective treatment and/or vaccination. Calculations are based on World Health Organisation data from Wuhan in China: 14% of infected cases are severe, 5% require intensive care and 4% die. Estimated infection rates and mortality rates at the level of continents and some individual countries (when these are of sufficient size) are tabulated. This pandemic may cause close to half a billion deaths, i.e. 6% of the global population - and potentially more. At the risk of sounding sensational, but with a sober sense of realism, healthcare risks being plunged into the Middle-Ages if the public do not do their part. Infection cannot occur in the absence of contact. The only way to mitigate these numbers is to apply social distancing and take the standard precautions so frequently reiterated by Public Health: hand washing, avoid touching the face and so on. These measures are crucial as the human cost is going to be unthinkable even in the best-case scenarios that epidemiologists are modelling.

negative: Chasing the origin of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada’s COVID-19 cases: A genomics study The emergence and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 has had profound social and economic consequences and has shed light on the importance of continued and additional investment in global health and infectious disease surveillance. Identifying changes in viral genomes provides key insights into viral diversity, how viruses spread within populations, and viral strategies for evasion of host immune systems. Here we report twenty-five SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected from some of the first COVID-19 cases in eastern Ontario, Canada (March 18-30, 2020). The reported genomes belong to the S-clade (n=2) and G-clade (n=23) of SARS-CoV-2 and contain 45 polymorphic sites including one shared missense and three unique synonymous variants in the gene encoding the spike protein. A phylogenetic analysis enabled the tracing of viral origin and potential transmission into and within Canada. There may be as many as sixteen unique infection events represented in these samples, including at least three that were likely introduced from Europe and seven from the USA. In addition, four separate genomes are each shared by multiple patients, suggesting a common origin or community spread even during this early stage of infection. These results demonstrate how molecular epidemiology and evolutionary phylogenetics can help local health units track origins and vectors of spread for emerging diseases like SARS-CoV-2. Earlier detection and screening in this way could improve the effectiveness of regional public health interventions to prevent future pandemics.

negative: Understanding Antibody Testing for COVID-19 The orthopedic community has seen the COVID-19 pandemic decimate elective surgical volumes in most geographies. Patients and essential workers, such as health care providers, remain rightfully concerned about how to appropriately begin to return to work and community activity in a safe and responsible manner. Many believe that testing for the presence of antibodies on a widespread scale could help drive evidence-based decision-making, both on an individual and societal scale. Much information, and an equal amount of misinformation, has been produced on antibody testing. Education about the role and science of such testing is critically important for programs to be effectively understood and managed.

negative: SHEA/APIC Guideline: Infection Prevention and Control in the Long-Term Care Facility

negative: The Coronavirus Nucleocapsid Is a Multifunctional Protein The coronavirus nucleocapsid (N) is a structural protein that forms complexes with genomic RNA, interacts with the viral membrane protein during virion assembly and plays a critical role in enhancing the efficiency of virus transcription and assembly. Recent studies have confirmed that N is a multifunctional protein. The aim of this review is to highlight the properties and functions of the N protein, with specific reference to (i) the topology; (ii) the intracellular localization and (iii) the functions of the protein.

negative: Factors associated with hospitalization and critical illness among 4,103 patients with COVID-19 disease in New York City Background: Little is known about factors associated with hospitalization and critical illness in Covid-19 positive patients. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of all patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 treated at a single academic health system in New York City between March 1, 2020 and April 2, 2020, with follow up through April 7, 2020. Primary outcomes were hospitalization and critical illness (intensive care, mechanical ventilation, hospice and/or death). We conducted multivariable logistic regression to identify risk factors for adverse outcomes, and maximum information gain decision tree classifications to identify key splitters. Results: Among 4,103 Covid-19 patients, 1,999 (48.7%) were hospitalized, of whom 981/1,999 (49.1%) have been discharged home, and 292/1,999 (14.6%) have died or were discharged to hospice. Of 445 patients requiring mechanical ventilation, 162/445 (36.4%) have died. Strongest hospitalization risks were age [≥]75 years (OR 66.8, 95% CI, 44.7-102.6), age 65-74 (OR 10.9, 95% CI, 8.35-14.34), BMI>40 (OR 6.2, 95% CI, 4.2-9.3), and heart failure (OR 4.3 95% CI, 1.9-11.2). Strongest critical illness risks were admission oxygen saturation <88% (OR 6.99, 95% CI 4.5-11.0), d-dimer>2500 (OR 6.9, 95% CI, 3.2-15.2), ferritin >2500 (OR 6.9, 95% CI, 3.2-15.2), and C-reactive protein (CRP) >200 (OR 5.78, 95% CI, 2.6-13.8). In the decision tree for admission, the most important features were age >65 and obesity; for critical illness, the most important was SpO2<88, followed by procalcitonin >0.5, troponin <0.1 (protective), age >64 and CRP>200. Conclusions: Age and comorbidities are powerful predictors of hospitalization; however, admission oxygen impairment and markers of inflammation are most strongly associated with critical illness.

negative: Discovering drugs to treat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged in December 2019 and then spread rapidly worldwide, particularly to China, Japan, and South Korea. Scientists are endeavoring to find antivirals specific to the virus. Several drugs such as chloroquine, arbidol, remdesivir, and favipiravir are currently undergoing clinical studies to test their efficacy and safety in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China; some promising results have been achieved thus far. This article summarizes agents with potential efficacy against SARS-CoV-2.

negative: Situación de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en pacientes en tratamiento renal sustitutivo Informe del Registro COVID-19 de la Sociedad Española de Nefrología (S.E.N.) RESUMEN La reciente aparición de la pandemia por el coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ha impactado de forma muy importante en la población general. Los pacientes en tratamiento renal sustitutivo (TRS) no han sido ajenos a esta situación y por sus características resultan especialmente vulnerables. Presentamos los resultados del análisis del Registro COVID-19 de la S.E.N. Material y métodos: EL Registro comenzó a funcionar el 18 de marzo de 2020. Recoge variables epidemiológicas, datos del contagio y diagnóstico, clínica acompañante, tratamientos y desenlace. Se trata de un registro “on line”. Los pacientes fueron diagnosticados de infección por SARS-Cov-2 en base a los resultados de la PCR del virus, realizada tanto en pacientes que habían manifestado clínica compatible o tenían signos sospechosos como en aquellos a los que se había hecho como cribado tras algún contacto conocido con otro enfermo. Resultados: A fecha 11 de abril el Registro disponía de datos de 868 pacientes, procedentes de todas las Comunidades Autónomas. La modalidad de TRS más representada es la hemodiálisis en centro (HDC) seguida de los pacientes trasplantados. La clínica de presentación es similar a la población general. Un porcentaje muy elevado (85%) requirió ingreso hospitalario, un 8% en unidades de cuidados intensivos. Los tratamientos más utilizados fueron hidroxicloroquina, lopinavir-ritonavir y esteroides. La mortalidad es elevada y alcanza el 23%: los pacientes fallecidos estaban con más frecuencia en HDC, desarrollaban más frecuentemente neumonía y recibían en menos ocasiones lopinavir-ritonavir y esteroides. La edad y la neumonía se asociaban de forma independiente al riesgo de fallecer. Conclusiones: La infección por SARS-CoV-2 afecta ya a un número importante de pacientes españoles en TRS, fundamentalmente aquellos que están en HDC, las tasas de hospitalización son muy elevadas y la mortalidad es elevada; la edad y el desarrollo de neumonía son factores asociados a mortalidad. SUMMARY The recent appearance of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on the general population. Patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT) have not been unaware of this situation and due to their characteristics they are especially vulnerable. We present the results of the analysis of the COVID-19 Registry of the Spanish Society of Nephrology. Material and methods: The Registry began operating on March 18th, 2020. It collects epidemiological variables, contagion and diagnosis data, signs and symptoms, treatments and outcomes. It is an "online" registry. Patients were diagnosed with SARS-Cov-2 infection based on the results of the PCR of the virus, carried out both in patients who had manifested compatible symptoms or had suspicious signs, as well as in those who had undergone screening after some contact. acquainted with another patient. Results: As of April 11, the Registry had data on 868 patients, from all the Autonomous Communities. The most represented form of TRS is in-center hemodialysis (ICH) followed by transplant patients. Symptoms are similar to the general population. A very high percentage (85%) required hospital admission, 8% in intensive care units. The most used treatments were hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir-ritonavir, and steroids. Mortality is high and reaches 23%; deceased patients were more frequently on ICH, developed pneumonia more frequently, and received less frequently lopinavir-ritonavir and steroids. Age and pneumonia were independently associated with the risk of death. Conclusions: SARS-CoV-2 infection already affects a significant number of Spanish patients on RRT, mainly those on ICH, hospitalization rates are very high and mortality is high; age and the development of pneumonia are factors associated with mortality.

negative: Refining estimates of public health spending as measured in national health expenditure accounts: the Canadian experience. The recent focus on public health stemming from, among other things, severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian flu has created an imperative to refine health-spending estimates in the Canadian Health Accounts. This article presents the Canadian experience in attempting to address the challenges associated with developing the needed taxonomies for systematically capturing, measuring, and analyzing the national investment in the Canadian public health system. The first phase of this process was completed in 2005, which was a 2-year project to estimate public health spending based on a more classic definition by removing the administration component of the previously combined public health and administration category. Comparing the refined public health estimate with recent data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development still positions Canada with the highest share of total health expenditure devoted to public health than any other country reporting. The article also provides an analysis of the comparability of public health estimates across jurisdictions within Canada as well as a discussion of the recommendations for ongoing improvement of public health spending estimates. The Canadian Institute for Health Information is an independent, not-for-profit organization that provides Canadians with essential statistics and analysis on the performance of the Canadian health system, the delivery of healthcare, and the health status of Canadians. The Canadian Institute for Health Information administers more than 20 databases and registries, including Canada's Health Accounts, which tracks historically 40 categories of health spending by 5 sources of finance for 13 provincial and territorial jurisdictions. Until 2005, expenditure on public health services in the Canadian Health Accounts included measures to prevent the spread of communicable disease, food and drug safety, health inspections, health promotion, community mental health programs, public health nursing, as well as all the costs for the general administration of government health departments.

negative: Understanding the COVID19 Outbreak: A Comparative Data Analytics and Study The Coronavirus, also known as the COVID-19 virus, has emerged in Wuhan China since late November 2019. Since that time, it has been spreading at large-scale until today all around the world. It is currently recognized as the world's most viral and severe epidemic spread in the last twenty years, as compared to Ebola 2014, MERS 2012, and SARS 2003. Despite being still in the middle of the outbreak, there is an urgent need to understand the impact of COVID-19. The objective is to clarify how it was spread so fast in a short time worldwide in unprecedented fashion. This paper represents a first initiative to achieve this goal, and it provides a comprehensive analytical study about the Coronavirus. The contribution of this paper consists in providing descriptive and predictive models that give insights into COVID-19 impact through the analysis of extensive data updated daily for the outbreak in all countries. We aim at answering several open questions: How does COVID-19 spread around the world? What is its impact in terms of confirmed and death cases at the continent, region, and country levels? How does its severity compare with other epidemic outbreaks, including Ebola 2014, MERS 2012, and SARS 2003? Is there a correlation between the number of confirmed cases and death cases? We present a comprehensive analytics visualization to address the questions mentioned above. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first systematic analytical papers that pave the way towards a better understanding of COVID-19. The analytical dashboards and collected data of this study are available online [1].

negative: Public Health in Canada and Adaptation to Infectious Disease Risks of Climate Change: Are We Planning or Just Keeping Our Fingers Crossed? Climate change is expected to increase the health risks for Canadians from infectious diseases from our environment, including vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases. Adaptation efforts will be important to reduce the impact of these risks. Public health systems are in place in Canada to control many disease risks but there are still knowledge gaps on, and modifications needed to, existing approaches to protecting the population from endemic diseases and new or emerging pathogens. This chapter addresses five key questions on whether public health is on track to helping communities adapt to changing risks. The questions address adaptation to disease risk of climate change by exploring the following: assessments of disease risks, methods for adaptation, responsibility, resources, and public action and societal will. Overall, with these increasing risks to the health of Canadians, all sectors of society will need to participate in the adaptive response, while federal, provincial, and community public health bodies will need to work together to identify and communicate risk and promote and coordinate adaptation responses.

negative: COVID-19 severity and mortality in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia: a joint study by ERIC, the European Research Initiative on CLL, and CLL Campus Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a disease of the elderly, characterized by immunodeficiency. Hence, patients with CLL might be considered more susceptible to severe complications from COVID-19. We undertook this retrospective international multicenter study to characterize the course of COVID-19 in patients with CLL and identify potential predictors of outcome. Of 190 patients with CLL and confirmed COVID-19 diagnosed between 28/03/2020 and 22/05/2020, 151 (79%) presented with severe COVID-19 (need of oxygen and/or intensive care admission). Severe COVID-19 was associated with more advanced age (≥65 years) (odds ratio 3.72 [95% CI 1.79–7.71]). Only 60 patients (39.7%) with severe COVID-19 were receiving or had recent (≤12 months) treatment for CLL at the time of COVID-19 versus 30/39 (76.9%) patients with mild disease. Hospitalization rate for severe COVID-19 was lower (p < 0.05) for patients on ibrutinib versus those on other regimens or off treatment. Of 151 patients with severe disease, 55 (36.4%) succumbed versus only 1/38 (2.6%) with mild disease; age and comorbidities did not impact on mortality. In CLL, (1) COVID-19 severity increases with age; (2) antileukemic treatment (particularly BTK inhibitors) appears to exert a protective effect; (3) age and comorbidities did not impact on mortality, alluding to a relevant role of CLL and immunodeficiency.

negative: The Italian Outbreak of COVID-19: Conditions, Contributors, and Concerns

negative: Date of origin of the SARS coronavirus strains BACKGROUND: A new respiratory infectious epidemic, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), broke out and spread throughout the world. By now the putative pathogen of SARS has been identified as a new coronavirus, a single positive-strand RNA virus. RNA viruses commonly have a high rate of genetic mutation. It is therefore important to know the mutation rate of the SARS coronavirus as it spreads through the population. Moreover, finding a date for the last common ancestor of SARS coronavirus strains would be useful for understanding the circumstances surrounding the emergence of the SARS pandemic and the rate at which SARS coronavirus diverge. METHODS: We propose a mathematical model to estimate the evolution rate of the SARS coronavirus genome and the time of the last common ancestor of the sequenced SARS strains. Under some common assumptions and justifiable simplifications, a few simple equations incorporating the evolution rate (K) and time of the last common ancestor of the strains (T(0)) can be deduced. We then implemented the least square method to estimate K and T(0 )from the dataset of sequences and corresponding times. Monte Carlo stimulation was employed to discuss the results. RESULTS: Based on 6 strains with accurate dates of host death, we estimated the time of the last common ancestor to be about August or September 2002, and the evolution rate to be about 0.16 base/day, that is, the SARS coronavirus would on average change a base every seven days. We validated our method by dividing the strains into two groups, which coincided with the results from comparative genomics. CONCLUSION: The applied method is simple to implement and avoid the difficulty and subjectivity of choosing the root of phylogenetic tree. Based on 6 strains with accurate date of host death, we estimated a time of the last common ancestor, which is coincident with epidemic investigations, and an evolution rate in the same range as that reported for the HIV-1 virus.

negative: Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States In the wake of community coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission in the United States, there is a growing public health concern regarding the adequacy of resources to treat infected cases. Hospital beds, intensive care units (ICUs), and ventilators are vital for the treatment of patients with severe illness. To project the timing of the outbreak peak and the number of ICU beds required at peak, we simulated a COVID-19 outbreak parameterized with the US population demographics. In scenario analyses, we varied the delay from symptom onset to self-isolation, the proportion of symptomatic individuals practicing self-isolation, and the basic reproduction number R 0 Without self-isolation, when R 0 = 2.5, treatment of critically ill individuals at the outbreak peak would require 3.8 times more ICU beds than exist in the United States. Self-isolation by 20% of cases 24 h after symptom onset would delay and flatten the outbreak trajectory, reducing the number of ICU beds needed at the peak by 48.4% (interquartile range 46.4-50.3%), although still exceeding existing capacity. When R 0 = 2, twice as many ICU beds would be required at the peak of outbreak in the absence of self-isolation. In this scenario, the proportional impact of self-isolation within 24 h on reducing the peak number of ICU beds is substantially higher at 73.5% (interquartile range 71.4-75.3%). Our estimates underscore the inadequacy of critical care capacity to handle the burgeoning outbreak. Policies that encourage self-isolation, such as paid sick leave, may delay the epidemic peak, giving a window of time that could facilitate emergency mobilization to expand hospital capacity.

negative: Understanding the Perceived Mental Health of Canadians During the COVID-19 Pandemic BACKGROUND: While the physical health implications of the COVID-19 pandemic are regularly publicly available, the mental health toll on Canadians is unknown. This article examines the self-perceived mental health of Canadians during the COVID-19 pandemic and explores associations with various concerns after accounting for socioeconomic and health factors. DATA: The cross-sectional Canadian Perspectives Survey Series 1 collected information related to COVID-19 in late March and early April 2020 concerning labour market participation, behaviours, and health for the Canadian population 15 years and older living in the 10 provinces. METHODS: Socioeconomic and health characteristics of respondents as well as concerns about the impact of COVID-19 were examined to determine differences in experiencing excellent or very good compared to good, fair or poor perceived mental health. RESULTS: Just over half of Canadians aged 15 and older (54%) reported excellent or very good mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Several concerns were also associated with mental health. Notably, after considering the effects of socioeconomic and health characteristics, women, youth, individuals with a physical health condition and those who were very or extremely concerned with family stress from confinement were less likely to report excellent or very good mental health. DISCUSSION: These findings point to particular risks for lower perceived mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Results highlight various concerns of Canadians which may be associated with mental health, in particular, family stress in the home.

negative: Direct Measurement of Rates of Asymptomatic Infection and Clinical Care-Seeking for Seasonal Coronavirus The pandemic potential of the novel coronavirus (nCoV) that emerged in Wuhan, China, during December 2019 is strongly tied to the number and contagiousness of undocumented human infections. Here we present findings from a proactive longitudinal sampling study of acute viral respiratory infections that documents rates of asymptomatic infection and clinical care seeking for seasonal coronavirus. We find that the majority of infections are asymptomatic by most symptom definitions and that only 4% of individuals experiencing a seasonal coronavirus infection episode sought medical care for their symptoms. These numbers indicate that a very high percentage of seasonal coronavirus infections are undocumented and provide a reference for understanding the spread of the emergent nCoV.

negative: The State of the Science of health care epidemiology, infection control, and patient safety, 2004 Being aware and implementing the latest and best scientific evidence in infection control and health care epidemiology is critical to enhancing patient outcomes. In this review, the latest published scientific data in health care epidemiology and patient safety were reviewed for the period May 2003-May 2004. Medline reviews and reviews of infection control and infectious diseases journals were used for this period. The latest guidelines and publications on antimicrobial resistance, nursing or infection control professional staffing, West Nile virus, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) are included. Awareness of these and other important infection control publications is essential if the latest measures are to be implemented to prevent and control health care-associated infections.

negative: Advanced Querying Features for Disease Surveillance Systems Most automated disease surveillance systems notify users of increases in the prevalence of reports in syndrome categories and allow users to view patient level data related to those increases. Occasionally, a more dynamic level of control is required to properly detect an emerging disease in a community. Dynamic querying features are invaluable when using existing surveillance systems to investigate outbreaks of newly emergent diseases or to identify cases of reportable diseases within data being captured for surveillance. The objective of the Advance Querying Tool (AQT) is to build a more flexible query interface for most web-based disease surveillance systems. This interface allows users to define and build their query as if they were writing a logical expression for a mathematical computation. The AQT allows users to develop, investigate, save, and share complex case definitions. It provides a flexible interface that accommodates both advanced and novice users, checks the validity of the expression as it is built, and marks errors for users.

negative: Estimating critical care capacity needs and gaps in Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic Objective The purpose of this analysis was to describe national critical care capacity shortages for 52 African countries and to outline needs for each country to adequately respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods A modified SECIR compartment model was used to estimate the number of severe COVID-19 cases at the peak of the outbreak. Projections of the number of hospital beds, ICU beds, and ventilators needed at outbreak peak were generated for four scenarios (if 30, 50, 70, or 100% of patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms seek health services) assuming that all people with severe infections would require hospitalization, that 4.72% would require ICU admission, and that 2.3% would require mechanical ventilation. Findings Across the 52 countries included in this analysis, the average number of severe COVID-19 cases projected at outbreak peak was 138 per 100,000 (SD: 9.6). Comparing current national capacities to estimated needs at outbreak peak, we found that 31of 50 countries (62%) do not have a sufficient number of hospital beds per 100,000 people if 100% of patients with severe infections seek out health services and assuming that all hospital beds are empty and available for use by patients with COVID-19. If only 30% of patients seek out health services then 10 of 50 countries (20%) do not have sufficient hospital bed capacity. The average number of ICU beds needed at outbreak peak across the 52 included countries ranged from 2 per 100,000 people (SD: 0.1) when 30% of people with severe COVID-19 infections access health services to 6.5 per 100,000 (SD: 0.5) assuming 100% of people seek out health services. Even if only 30% of severely infected patients seek health services at outbreak peak, then 34 of 48 countries (71%) do not have a sufficient number of ICU beds per 100,000 people to handle projected need. Only four countries (Cabo Verde, Egypt, Gabon, and South Africa) have a sufficient number of ventilators to meet projected national needs if 100% of severely infected individuals seek health services assuming all ventilators are functioning and available for COVID-19 patients, while 35 other countries require two or more additional ventilators per 100,000 people.

negative: Protecting against COVID-19 aerosol infection during intubation

negative: Evolving Epidemiology and Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China BACKGROUND We described the epidemiological features of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak, and evaluated the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic in Wuhan, China. METHODS Individual-level data on 25,961 laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases reported through February 18, 2020 were extracted from the municipal Notifiable Disease Report System. Based on key events and interventions, we divided the epidemic into four periods: before January 11, January 11-22, January 23 - February 1, and February 2-18. We compared epidemiological characteristics across periods and different demographic groups. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to study the epidemic and evaluate the impact of interventions. RESULTS The median age of the cases was 57 years and 50.3% were women. The attack rate peaked in the third period and substantially declined afterwards across geographic regions, sex and age groups, except for children (age <20) whose attack rate continued to increase. Healthcare workers and elderly people had higher attack rates and severity risk increased with age. The effective reproductive number dropped from 3.86 (95% credible interval 3.74 to 3.97) before interventions to 0.32 (0.28 to 0.37) post interventions. The interventions were estimated to prevent 94.5% (93.7 to 95.2%) infections till February 18. We found that at least 59% of infected cases were unascertained in Wuhan, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. CONCLUSIONS Considerable countermeasures have effectively controlled the Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan. Special efforts are needed to protect vulnerable populations, including healthcare workers, elderly and children. Estimation of unascertained cases has important implications on continuing surveillance and interventions.

negative: Outbreak of a novel coronavirus The emergence of a new coronavirus in China raises global alarm.

negative: Key predictors of attending hospital with COVID19: An association study from the COVID Symptom Tracker App in 2,618,948 individuals Objectives: We aimed to identify key demographic risk factors for hospital attendance with COVID-19 infection. Design: Community survey Setting: The COVID Symptom Tracker mobile application co-developed by physicians and scientists at Kings College London, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston and Zoe Global Limited was launched in the UK and US on 24th and 29th March 2020 respectively. It captured self-reported information related to COVID-19 symptoms and testing. Participants: 2,618,948 users of the COVID Symptom Tracker App. UK (95.7%) and US (4.3%) population. Data cut-off for this analysis was 21st April 2020. Main outcome measures: Visit to hospital and for those who attended hospital, the need for respiratory support in three subgroups (i) self-reported COVID-19 infection with classical symptoms (SR-COVID-19), (ii) self-reported positive COVID-19 test results (T-COVID-19), and (iii) imputed/predicted COVID-19 infection based on symptomatology (I-COVID-19). Multivariate logistic regressions for each outcome and each subgroup were adjusted for age and gender, with sensitivity analyses adjusted for comorbidities. Classical symptoms were defined as high fever and persistent cough for several days. Results: Older age and all comorbidities tested were found to be associated with increased odds of requiring hospital care for COVID-19. Obesity (BMI >30) predicted hospital care in all models, with odds ratios (OR) varying from 1.20 [1.11; 1.31] to 1.40 [1.23; 1.60] across population groups. Pre-existing lung disease and diabetes were consistently found to be associated with hospital visit with a maximum OR of 1.79 [1.64,1.95] and 1.72 [1.27; 2.31]) respectively. Findings were similar when assessing the need for respiratory support, for which age and male gender played an additional role. Conclusions: Being older, obese, diabetic or suffering from pre-existing lung, heart or renal disease placed participants at increased risk of visiting hospital with COVID-19. It is of utmost importance for governments and the scientific and medical communities to work together to find evidence-based means of protecting those deemed most vulnerable from COVID-19. Trial registration: The App Ethics have been approved by KCL ethics Committee REMAS ID 18210, review reference LRS-19/20-18210

negative: Directives concrètes à l'intention des équipes de soins intensifs et d'anesthésiologie prenant soin de patients atteints du coronavirus 2019-nCoV./ Practical recommendations for critical care and anesthesiology teams caring for novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) patients A global health emergency has been declared by the World Health Organization as the 2019-nCoV outbreak spreads across the world, with confirmed patients in Canada. Patients infected with 2019-nCoV are at risk for developing respiratory failure and requiring admission to critical care units. While providing optimal treatment for these patients, careful execution of infection control measures is necessary to prevent nosocomial transmission to other patients and to healthcare workers providing care. Although the exact mechanisms of transmission are currently unclear, human-to-human transmission can occur, and the risk of airborne spread during aerosol-generating medical procedures remains a concern in specific circumstances. This paper summarizes important considerations regarding patient screening, environmental controls, personal protective equipment, resuscitation measures (including intubation), and critical care unit operations planning as we prepare for the possibility of new imported cases or local outbreaks of 2019-nCoV. Although understanding of the 2019-nCoV virus is evolving, lessons learned from prior infectious disease challenges such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome will hopefully improve our state of readiness regardless of the number of cases we eventually manage in Canada.

negative: Key to successful treatment of COVID-19: accurate identification of severe risks and early intervention of disease progression Abstract Background COVID-19 is a new and highly contagious respiratory disease that has caused global spread, high case fatality rate in severe patients, and a huge medical burden due to invasive mechanical ventilation. The current diagnosis and treatment guidelines are still need to be improved, and more excellent clinical experience is needed to provide reference. Methods We analyzed and summarized clinical data of 97 confirmed COVID-19 adult patients (including 26 severe cases) admitted to the Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from January 17, 2020 to March 10, 2020,included laboratory examination results, imaging findings, treatment effect, prognosis , etc, in order to put forward prediction index of severe COVID-19 patients, principles of early intervention and methylprednisolone usages in COVID-19 patients. Results 1.Hypoxemia, hyperlactic acid, hypoproteinemia, and hypokalemia were prevalent in COVID-19 patients.The significant low lymphocyte count, hypoproteinemia, hypokalemia, the persistent or worsen high CRP, high D-dimer, and high BNP, and the occurrence of hemoptysis and novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) viremia were important indicators for early diagnosis and prediction of severe disease progression. 2.Characteristic images of lung CT had a clear change in COVID - 19, Ground-glass opacity (GGO) and high-density linear combinations may indicate different pathological changes. Rapid lobular progression of GGO suggests the possibility of severe disease. 3.Basic principles of early intervention treatment of COVID-19: on the premise of no effective antiviral drugs, treatment is based on supportive and symptomatic therapy (albumin supplementation, supplement of potassium, supplement blood plasma, etc.) in order to maintain the stability of the intracellular environment and adequately reactivate body immunity to clean up SARS-CoV-2 . 4. According to severity, oxygenation index, body weight, age, underlying diseases, appropriate amount methylprednisolone application on severe/critical COVID-19 patients on demand, improved blood oxygen and reduced the utilization rate of invasive mechanical ventilation, case fatality rate and medical burden significantly. The most common indications for invasive mechanical ventilation should be strictly control in critical COVID-19 patients. Conclusions: 1.Accurate and timely identification of clinical features in severe risks, and early and appropriate intervention can block disease progression. 2.Appropriate dose of methylprednisolone can effectively avoid invasive mechanical ventilation and reduce case fatality rate in critical COVID-19 patients.

negative: Surveillance and Control of Communicable Disease in Conflicts and Disasters

negative: Outbreak of SARS-CoV2: Pathogenesis of infection and cardiovascular involvement Since the new coronavirus SARS (SARS-CoV2) has emerged from china, the infection (COVID-19) has affected many countries and led to many deaths worldwide. Like SARS-CoV, ACE2 as a functional receptor for SARS-CoV2 is essential for virus to entry to the cell. ACE2 is a part of RAS which is expressed in several organs that opposes the AngII functions by converting Ang II to Ang (1-7), the one with vasodilation effects. The death rate of COVID-19 is estimated about 3.4%, however, some comorbid conditions like underlying cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and diabetes increase the risk of mortality. In addition, cardiovascular involvement by SARS-CoV2 could be direct through either ACE2 receptors which are expressed tremendously in heart, or by the surge of different cytokines or by ARDS-induced hypoxia. Traditional risk factors could aggravate the process of COVID-19 infection that urges the triage of these high risk patients for SARS-CoV2. Currently, there is no effective, proven treatment or vaccination for COVID-19, but many investigators are struggling to find a treatment strategy as soon as possible. Some potential medications like chloroquine by itself or in combination with azithromycin, and some protease inhibitors used for the treatment of COVID-19 have cardiovascular adverse effects that should be kept in mind in order to close monitor of the patients receiving these medications.

negative: COVID-19 outcomes in patients with hematologic disease

negative: Analysis and Prediction of False Negative Results for SARS-CoV-2 Detection with Pharyngeal Swab Specimen in COVID-19 Patients: A Retrospective Study Background: False negative results of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection pose threats to COVID-19 patients and medical workers alike. Objective: To develop multivariate models to determine clinical characteristics that contribute to false negative results of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection, and use them to predict false negative results as well as time windows for testing positive. Design: Retrospective Cohort Study (Ethics number of Tongji Hospital: No. IRBID: TJ-20200320) Setting: A database of outpatients in Tongji Hospital (University Hospital) from 15 January 2020 to 19 February 2020. Patients: 1,324 outpatients with COVID-19 Measurements: Clinical information on CT imaging reports, blood routine tests, and clinic symptoms were collected. A multivariate logistic regression was used to explain and predict false negative testing results of SARS-CoV-2 detection. A multivariate accelerated failure model was used to analyze and predict delayed time windows for testing positive. Results: Of the 1,324 outpatients who diagnosed of COVID-19, 633 patients tested positive in their first SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test (47.8%), with a mean age of 51 years (SD=14.9); the rest, which had a mean age of 47 years (SD=15.4), tested negative in the first test. Ground glass opacity in a CT imaging report was associated with a lower chance of false negatives (aOR, 0.56), and reduced the length of time window for testing positive by 26%. Consolidation was associated with a higher chance of false negatives (aOR, 1.57), and extended the length of time window for testing positive by 44%. In blood routine tests, basophils (aOR, 1.28) and eosinophils (aOR, 1.29) were associated with a higher chance of false negatives, and were found to extend the time window for testing positive by 23% and 41%, respectively. Age and gender also affected the significantly. Limitation: Data were generated in a large single-center study. Conclusion: Testing outcome and positive window of SARS-CoV-2 detection for COVID-19 patients were associated with CT imaging results, blood routine tests, and clinical symptoms. Taking into account relevant information in CT imaging reports, blood routine tests, and clinical symptoms helped reduce a false negative testing outcome. The predictive AFT model, what we believe to be one of the first statistical models for predicting time window of SARS-CoV-2 detection, could help clinicians improve the accuracy and efficiency of the diagnosis, and hence, optimizes the timing of nucleic acid detection and alleviates the shortage of nucleic acid detection kits around the world. Primary Funding Source: None.

negative: Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Strike on Arab Countries and Territories: A Situation Report I The novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new virus called COVID-19 or 2019-nCoV that first identified in Wuhan, China. The disease causes respiratory illness (such as the flu) with other symptoms such as a cough, fever, and in more severe cases, difficulty breathing. This new Coronavirus seems to be very infectious and has spread quickly and globally. In this work, information about COVID-19 is provided and the situation in Arab countries and territories regarding the COVID-19 strike is presented. The next few weeks main expectations is also given.

negative: Individual risk management strategy and potential therapeutic options for the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract It is an ugly fact that a significant amount of the world's population will contract SARS-CoV infection with the current spreading. While specific treatment is not yet coming soon, individual risk assessment and management strategies are crucial. The individual preventive and protective measures drive the personal risk of getting the disease. Among the virus-contracted hosts, their different metabolic status, as determined by their diet, nutrition, age, sex, medical conditions, lifestyle, and environmental factors, govern the personal fate toward different clinical severity of COVID-19, from asymptomatic, mild, moderate, to death. The careful individual assessment for the possible dietary, nutritional, medical, lifestyle, and environmental risks, together with the proper relevant risk management strategies, is the sensible way to deal with the pandemic of SARS-CoV-II.

negative: Reduction in Clostridium difficile Infection Rates after Mandatory Hospital Public Reporting: Findings from a Longitudinal Cohort Study in Canada BACKGROUND: The role of public reporting in improving hospital quality of care is controversial. Reporting of hospital-acquired infection rates has been introduced in multiple health care systems, but its relationship to infection rates has been understudied. Our objective was to determine whether mandatory public reporting by hospitals is associated with a reduction in hospital rates of Clostridium difficile infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a longitudinal, population-based cohort study in Ontario (Canada's largest province) between April 1, 2002, and March 31, 2010. We included all patients (>1 y old) admitted to 180 acute care hospitals. Using Poisson regression, we developed a model to predict hospital- and age-specific monthly rates of C. difficile disease per 10,000 patient-days prior to introduction of public reporting on September 1, 2008. We then compared observed monthly rates of C. difficile infection in the post-intervention period with rates predicted by the pre-intervention predictive model. In the pre-intervention period there were 33,634 cases of C. difficile infection during 39,221,113 hospital days, with rates increasing from 7.01 per 10,000 patient-days in 2002 to 10.79 in 2007. In the first calendar year after the introduction of public reporting, there was a decline in observed rates of C. difficile colitis in Ontario to 8.92 cases per 10,000 patient-days, which was significantly lower than the predicted rate of 12.16 (95% CI 11.35–13.04) cases per 10,000 patient-days (p<0.001). Over this period, public reporting was associated with a 26.7% (95% CI 21.4%–31.6%) reduction in C. difficile cases, or a projected 1,970 cases averted per year (95% CI 1,476–2,500). The effect was specific to C. difficile, with rates of community-acquired gastrointestinal infections and urinary tract infections unchanged. A limitation of our study is that this observational study design cannot rule out the influence of unmeasured temporal confounders. CONCLUSIONS: Public reporting of hospital C. difficile rates was associated with a substantial reduction in the population burden of this infection. Future research will be required to discern the direct mechanism by which C. difficile infection rates may have been reduced in response to public reporting. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

negative: Acute Respiratory Infections in Travelers Returning from MERS-CoV–Affected Areas We examined which respiratory pathogens were identified during screening for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in 177 symptomatic travelers returning to Ontario, Canada, from regions affected by the virus. Influenza A and B viruses (23.1%) and rhinovirus (19.8%) were the most common pathogens identified among these travelers.

negative: Estimated Demand for US Hospital Inpatient and Intensive Care Unit Beds for Patients With COVID-19 Based on Comparisons With Wuhan and Guangzhou, China Importance: Sustained spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has happened in major US cities. Capacity needs in cities in China could inform the planning of local health care resources. Objectives: To describe and compare the intensive care unit (ICU) and inpatient bed needs for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in 2 cities in China to estimate the peak ICU bed needs in US cities if an outbreak equivalent to that in Wuhan occurs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This comparative effectiveness study analyzed the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Guangzhou, China, from January 10 to February 29, 2020. Exposures: Timing of disease control measures relative to timing of SARS-CoV-2 community spread. Main Outcomes and Measures: Number of critical and severe patient-days and peak number of patients with critical and severe illness during the study period. Results: In Wuhan, strict disease control measures were implemented 6 weeks after sustained local transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Between January 10 and February 29, 2020, patients with COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 429 (25-1143) patients in the ICU and 1521 (111-7202) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 19â¯425 patients (24.5 per 10â¯000 adults) were hospitalized, 9689 (12.2 per 10â¯000 adults) were considered in serious condition, and 2087 (2.6 per 10â¯000 adults) needed critical care per day. In Guangzhou, strict disease control measures were implemented within 1 week of case importation. Between January 24 and February 29, COVID-19 accounted for a median (interquartile range) of 9 (7-12) patients in the ICU and 17 (15-26) inpatients with serious illness each day. During the epidemic peak, 15 patients were in critical condition and 38 were classified as having serious illness. The projected number of prevalent critically ill patients at the peak of a Wuhan-like outbreak in US cities was estimated to range from 2.2 to 4.4 per 10â¯000 adults, depending on differences in age distribution and comorbidity (ie, hypertension) prevalence. Conclusions and Relevance: Even after the lockdown of Wuhan on January 23, the number of patients with serious COVID-19 illness continued to rise, exceeding local hospitalization and ICU capacities for at least a month. Plans are urgently needed to mitigate the consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks on the local health care systems in US cities.

negative: 33 Viral Respiratory Infections Abstract Acute respiratory illnesses are the most frequently occurring illness in all age groups globally. Disease is mostly limited to the upper airways and is self-limiting, but a small percentage can progress to lower respiratory tract infections as bronchiolitis and pneumonia. Children and elderly people are at increased risk, especially in developing countries. The most important etiologic agents of severe lower respiratory illness are bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae and viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus. Efficacious vaccines are available against the two bacteria and the influenza virus. Viruses are much more important in mild upper and middle respiratory tract infections and in bronchiolitis in children, whereas bacteria are the main cause of pneumonia, especially in adults. Clinical syndromes overlap considerably, and there is increasing evidence of bacterial-viral co-infections and of bacterial pneumonia being secondary to viral respiratory tract infection.

negative: Health shocks and their long-lasting impact on health behaviors: Evidence from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Mexico Abstract Worldwide, the leading causes of death could be avoided with health behaviors that are low-cost but also difficult to adopt. We show that exogenous health shocks could facilitate the adoption of these behaviors and provide long-lasting effects on health outcomes. Specifically, we exploit the spatial and temporal variation of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Mexico and show that areas with a higher incidence of H1N1 experienced larger reductions in diarrhea-related cases among young children. These reductions continue even three years after the shock ended. Health improvements and evidence of information seeking via Google searches were consistent with changes in hand washing behaviors. Several robustness checks validate our findings and mechanism.

negative: [Management and clinical thinking of Coronavirus Disease 2019]. In December 2019, the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP, officially named Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) by the World Health Organization) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei, and it quickly spread to the whole country and abroad. The situation was at stake. The sudden and serious COVID-19 epidemic has brought us a lot of urgent problems. How to effectively control the spread of COVID-19? When does the population infection rate rise to its peak? What will eventually be the number of infected patients? How to make early diagnosis? What effective antiviral drugs are available? How to effectively treat with existing drugs? Can it successfully improve the survival rate of critically patients? In response to the above questions, we put forward corresponding suggestions and reflections from the perspective of the infectious clinician.

negative: Travellers and influenza: risks and prevention Background: Influenza viruses are among the major causes of serious human respiratory tract infection worldwide. In line with the high disease burden attributable to influenza, these viruses play an important, but often neglected, role in travel medicine. Guidelines and recommendations regarding prevention and management of influenza in travellers are scarce. Of special interest for travel medicine are risk populations and also circumstances that facilitate influenza virus transmission and spread, like travel by airplane or cruise ship and mass gatherings. Methods: We conducted a PUBMED/MEDLINE search for a combination of the MeSH terms Influenza virus, travel, mass gathering, large scale events and cruise ship. In addition we gathered guidelines and recommendations from selected countries and regarding influenza prevention and management in travellers. By reviewing these search results in the light of published knowledge in the fields of influenza prevention and management, we present best practice advice for the prevention and management of influenza in travel medicine. Results: Seasonal influenza is among the most prevalent infectious diseases in travellers. Known host-associated risk factors include extremes of age and being immune-compromised, while the most relevant environmental factors are associated with holiday cruises and mass gatherings. Conclusions: Pre-travel advice should address influenza and its prevention for travellers, whenever appropriate on the basis of the epidemiological situation concerned. Preventative measures should be strongly recommended for travellers at high-risk for developing complications. In addition, seasonal influenza vaccination should be considered for any traveller wishing to reduce the risk of incapacitation, particularly cruise ship crew and passengers, as well as those participating in mass gatherings. Besides advice concerning preventive measures and vaccination, advice on the use of antivirals may be considered for some travellers.

negative: Emergence of a novel coronavirus causing respiratory illness from Wuhan, China

negative: Human Bocavirus Infection, Canada Human Bocavirus was detected in 18 (1.5%) of 1,209 respiratory specimens collected in 2003 and 2004 in Canada. The main symptoms of affected patients were cough (78%), fever (67%), and sore throat (44%). Nine patients were hospitalized; of these, 8 (89%) were <5 years of age.

negative: Development of antiviral therapy for severe acute respiratory syndrome Abstract A new disease, the severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (SARS), caused by the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), emerged at the beginning of 2003 and rapidly spread throughout the world. Although the disease had disappeared in June 2003 its re-emergence cannot be excluded. The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV may take years. Therefore, the availability of effective antiviral drugs against SARS-CoV may be crucial for the control of future SARS outbreaks. In this review, experimental and clinical data about potential anti-SARS drugs is summarised and discussed. Animal model studies will be needed to help to determine which interventions warrant controlled clinical testing.

negative: Likelihood of survival of coronavirus disease 2019

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnancy: early lessons The worldwide incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is rapidly increasing, but there exists limited information on coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnancy. Here, we present our experience with 7 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnancy presenting to a single large New York City tertiary care hospital. Of the 7 patients, 5 presented with symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019, including cough, myalgias, fevers, chest pain, and headache. Of the 7 patients, 4 were admitted to the hospital, including 2 who required supportive care with intravenous hydration. Of note, the other 2 admitted patients who were asymptomatic on admission to the hospital, presenting instead for obstetrically indicated labor inductions, became symptomatic after delivery, each requiring intensive care unit admission.

negative: Seek COVER: Development and validation of a personalized risk calculator for COVID-19 outcomes in an international network Abstract Importance COVID-19 is causing high mortality worldwide. Developing models to quantify the risk of poor outcomes in infected patients could help develop strategies to shield the most vulnerable during de-confinement. Objective To develop and externally validate COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) scores that quantify a patient's risk of hospital admission (COVER-H), requiring intensive services (COVER-I), or fatality (COVER-F) in the 30-days following COVID-19 diagnosis. Design Multinational, distributed network cohorts. Setting We analyzed a federated network of electronic medical records and administrative claims data from 13 data sources and 6 countries, mapped to a common data model. Participants Model development used a patient population consisting of >2 million patients with a general practice (GP), emergency room (ER), or outpatient (OP) visit with diagnosed influenza or flu-like symptoms any time prior to 2020. The model was validated on patients with a GP, ER, or OP visit in 2020 with a confirmed or suspected COVID-19 diagnosis across four databases from South Korea, Spain and the United States. Outcomes Age, sex, historical conditions, and drug use prior to index date were considered as candidate predictors. Outcomes included i) hospitalization with pneumonia, ii) hospitalization with pneumonia requiring intensive services or death, and iii) death in the 30 days after index date. Results Overall, 43,061 COVID-19 patients were included for model validation, after initial model development and validation using 6,869,127 patients with influenza or flu-like symptoms. We identified 7 predictors (history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, heart disease, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and kidney disease) which combined with age and sex could discriminate which patients would experience any of our three outcomes. The models achieved high performance in influenza. When transported to COVID-19 cohorts, the AUC ranges were, COVER-H: 0.73-0.81, COVER-I: 0.73-0.91, and COVER-F: 0.82-0.90. Calibration was overall acceptable, with overestimated risk in the most elderly and highest risk strata. Conclusions and relevance A 9-predictor model performs well for COVID-19 patients for predicting hospitalization, intensive services and death. The models could aid in providing reassurance for low risk patients and shield high risk patients from COVID-19 during de-confinement to reduce the virus' impact on morbidity and mortality.

negative: Forecasting of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases in Different Countries with ARIMA Models The epidemic of a novel coronavirus illness (COVID-19) becomes as a global threat. The aim of this study is first to find the best prediction models for daily confirmed cases in countries with high number of confirmed cases in the world and second to predict confirmed cases with these models in order to have more readiness in healthcare systems. This study was conducted based on daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 that were collected from the official website of Johns Hopkins University from January 22th, 2020 to March 1th, 2020. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the trend of confirmed cases. Stata version 12 was used. Mainland China and Thailand had almost a stable trend. The trend of South Korea was decreasing and will become stable in near future. Iran and Italy had unstable trends. Mainland China and Thailand were successful in haltering COVID-19 epidemic. Investigating their protocol in this control like quarantine should be in the first line of other countries program

negative: Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza in 2015–2016: a hospital-based test-negative case–control study in Lithuania OBJECTIVE: A case–control study was conducted to assess seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (SIVE) during the 2015–2016 influenza season. METHODS: A study was performed in three departments in Lithuania between 1 December 2015 and 1 May 2016. Data on demographic and clinical characteristics including influenza vaccination status were collected from the patients recommended to receive the seasonal influenza vaccine. Influenza virus infection was confirmed by multiplex reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: Ninety-one (56.4%) of the 163 included subjects were ≥65 years old. Fifteen (9.2%) subjects were vaccinated against influenza at least 2 weeks before the onset of influenza symptoms, 12 of them were ≥65 years old. Of the 72 (44.2%) influenza virus positive cases, 65 (39.9%) were confirmed with influenza A (including 50 cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09), eight (4.9%) were confirmed with influenza B and one was a co-infection. Unadjusted SIVE against any influenza, influenza type A and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 57% (95% CI −41% to 87%), 52% (95% CI −57% to 85%) and 70% (95% CI −43% to 94%) respectively. CONCLUSION: Although SIVE estimates were not statistically significant the point estimates suggest moderate effectiveness against influenza type A.

negative: PCR sequencing of the spike genes of geographically and chronologically distinct human coronaviruses 229E Abstract A reverse transcription nested PCR (RT-PCR) sequencing methodology was developed and used to generate sequence data from the spike genes of three geographically and chronologically distinct human coronaviruses 229E. These three coronaviruses were isolated originally from the USA in the 1960s (human coronavirus 229E strain ATCC VR-74), the UK in the 1990s (human coronavirus 229E LRI 281) and Ghana (human coronavirus 229E A162). Upon translation and alignment with the published spike protein sequence of human coronavirus 229E ‘LP’ (isolated in the UK in the 1970s), it was found that variation within the translated protein sequences was rather limited. In particular, minimal variation was observed between the translated spike protein sequence of human coronaviruses 229E LP and ATCC VR-74 (1/1012 amino acid differences), whilst most variation was observed between the translated spike protein sequence of human coronaviruses 229E LP and A162 (47/1012 amino acid changes). Further, the translated spike protein sequence of human coronavirus 229E A162 showed three clusters of amino acid changes, situated within the 5′ half of the translated spike protein sequence.

negative: Genomics and infectious disease: a call to identify the ethical, legal and social implications for public health and clinical practice Advances in genomics are contributing to the development of more effective, personalized approaches to the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases. Genetic sequencing technologies are furthering our understanding of how human and pathogen genomic factors - and their interactions - contribute to individual differences in immunologic responses to vaccines, infections and drug therapies. Such understanding will influence future policies and procedures for infectious disease management. With the potential for tailored interventions for particular individuals, populations or subpopulations, ethical, legal and social implications (ELSIs) may arise for public health and clinical practice. Potential considerations include balancing health-related benefits and harms between individuals and the larger community, minimizing threats to individual privacy and autonomy, and ensuring just distribution of scarce resources. In this Opinion, we consider the potential application of pathogen and host genomic information to particular viral infections that have large-scale public health consequences but differ in ELSI-relevant characteristics such as ease of transmission, chronicity, severity, preventability and treatability. We argue for the importance of anticipating these ELSI issues in advance of new scientific discoveries, and call for the development of strategies for identifying and exploring ethical questions that should be considered as clinical, public health and policy decisions are made.

negative: 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50 mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

negative: [Caveolar endocytosis and virus entry]. The endocytic function of caveolae has been controversial for a long time. However, a real-time-imaging analysis of Simian virus 40 (SV40) 's entry in cells has indicated the existence of caveolar endocytosis during virus entry. The caveolae engulfed SV40 virions begin budding from plasma membrane depending on dynamin. SV40 enclosed in caveolae vesicles move to the caveosome, then to the endoplasmic reticulum. In addition, it was demonstrated that human coronavirus-229E enters the cell through caveolae. This review examines the involvement of caveolae in endocytosis used by the viral entry system.

negative: Who is more susceptible to Covid-19 infection and mortality in the States? Background: A novel coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, China and reported to WHO on 31 December 2019. WHO declared a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. The first case in the US was reported in January 2020. Since mid-March 2020, the number of confirmed cases has increased exponentially in the States, with 1.1 million confirmed cases, and 57.4 thousand deaths as of 30 April 2020. Even though some believe that this new lethal coronavirus does not show any partiality to the rich, previous epidemiological studies find that the poor in the US are more susceptible to the epidemics due to their limited access to preventive measures and crowded living conditions. In this study, we postulate that the rich is more susceptible to Covid-19 infection during the early stage before social distancing measures have been introduced. This may be attributed to the higher mobility (both inter- and intra-city), given their higher tendency to travel for business/education, and to more social interactions. However, we postulate after the lockdown/social distancing has been imposed, the infection among the rich may be reduced due to better living conditions. Further, the rich may be able to afford better medical treatment once infected, hence a relatively lower mortality. In contrast, without proper medical insurance coverage, the poor may be prevented from receiving timely and proper medical treatment, hence a higher mortality. Method: We will collect the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US during the period of Jan 2020 to Apr 2020 from Johns Hopkins University, also the number of Covid-19 tests in the US from the health departments across the States. County-level socio-economic status (SES) including age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, education, occupation, employment status, immigration status, and housing price, will be collected from the US Census Bureau. State/county-level health conditions including the prevalence of chronic diseases will be collected from the US CDC. State/county-level movement data including international and domestic flights will be collected from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. We will also collect the periods of lockdown/social distancing. Regression models are constructed to examine the relationship between SES, and Covid-19 infection and mortality at the state/county-level before and after lockdown/social distancing, while accounting for Covid-19 testing capacities and co-morbidities. Expected Findings: We expect that there is a positive correlation between Covid-19 infection and SES at the state/county-level in the US before social distancing. In addition, we expect a negative correlation between Covid-19 mortality and SES.

negative: Wuhan novel coronavirus (COVID-19): why global control is challenging?

negative: Master Regulator Analysis of the SARS-CoV-2/Human interactome the recent epidemic outbreak of a novel human coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2 and causing the respiratory tract disease COVID-19 has reached worldwide resonance and a global effort is being undertaken to characterize the molecular features and evolutionary origins of this virus. In this paper, we set out to shed light on the SARS-CoV-2/host receptor recognition, a crucial factor for successful virus infection. Based on the current knowledge of the interactome between SARS-CoV-2 and host cell proteins, we performed Master Regulator Analysis to detect which parts of the human interactome are most affected by the infection. We detected, amongst others, affected apoptotic and mitochondrial mechanisms, and a downregulation of the ACE2 protein receptor, notions that can be used to develop specific therapies against this new virus.

negative: Certainties and Uncertainties Facing Emerging Respiratory Infectious Diseases: Lessons from SARS Every emerging infectious disease is a challenge to the whole of mankind. There are uncertainties regarding whether there will be a pandemic, if it will be caused by the highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus, when or where it will occur, how imminent or how severe it will be. No one can accurately predict if and when a given virus will become a pandemic virus. Pandemic prevention strategies must be based on preparing for the unexpected and being capable of reacting accordingly. There is growing evidence that infection control measures were helpful in containment of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) as well as avian influenza. Compliance of standard infection control measures, intensive promotion of hand and respiratory hygiene, vigilance and triage of patients with febrile illness, and specific infection control measures are key components to contain a highly contagious disease in hospital and to protect healthcare workers, patients and visitors. The importance of standard precautions for any patient and cleaning and disinfection for the healthcare environment cannot be overemphasized. SARS illustrated dramatically the potential of air travel and globalization for the dissemination of an emerging infectious disease. To prevent the potential serious consequences of pandemic influenza, timely implementation of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions locally within the outbreak area is the key to minimizing global spread. Herein, we relate our perspective on useful lessons derived from a review of the SARS epidemic that may be useful to physicians, especially when looking ahead to the next epidemic.

negative: Unmet healthcare needs among migrants without medical insurance in Montreal, Canada. While access to healthcare for permanent residents in Canada is well known, this is not the case for migrants without healthcare coverage. This is the first large-scale study that examines the unmet healthcare needs of migrants without healthcare coverage in Montreal. 806 participants were recruited: 436 in the community and 370 at the NGO clinic. Proportions of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs were similar (68.4% vs. 69.8%). The main reason invoked for these unmet needs was lacking money (80.6%). Situations of not working or studying, not having had enough food in the past 12 months, not having a medical prescription to get medication and having had a workplace injury were all significantly associated with higher odds of having unmet healthcare needs. Unmet healthcare needs were more frequent among migrants without healthcare coverage than among recent immigrants or the citizens with health healthcare coverage (69%, 26%, 16%). Canada must take measures to enable these individuals to have access to healthcare according to their needs in order to reduce the risk of worsening their health status, something that may have an impact on the healthcare system and population health. The Government of Quebec announced that all individuals without any healthcare coverage will have access to COVID-19 related health care. We hope that this right, the application of which is not yet obvious, can continue after the pandemic for all health care.

negative: Genetic evolution analysis of 2019 novel coronavirus and coronavirus from other species The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. However, so far, there are still controversies about the source of the virus and its intermediate host. Here, we found the novel coronavirus was closely related to coronaviruses derived from five wild animals, including Paguma larvata, Paradoxurus hermaphroditus, Civet, Aselliscus stoliczkanus and Rhinolophus sinicus, and was in the same branch of the phylogenetic tree. However, genome and ORF1a homology show that the virus is not the same coronavirus as the coronavirus derived from these five animals, whereas the virus has the highest homology with Bat coronavirus isolate RaTG13.

negative: The effects of past SARS experience and proximity on declines in numbers of travelers to the Republic of Korea during the 2015 MERS outbreak: A retrospective study Abstract Background The experience of previous sizable outbreaks may affect travelers’ decisions to travel to an area with an ongoing outbreak. Methods We estimated changes in monthly numbers of visitors to the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 2015 compared to projected values by selected areas. We tested whether areas’ experience of a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases or distance to the ROK had a significant effect on travel to the ROK during the MERS outbreak using t-tests and regression models. Results The percentage changes in visitors from areas with a previous SARS outbreak of ≥100 cases decreased more than the percentage changes in visitors from their counterparts in June (52.4% vs. 23.3%) and July (60.0% vs. 31.4%) during the 2015 MERS outbreak. The percentage changes in visitors from the close and intermediate categories decreased more than the far category. The results from regression models and sensitivity analyses demonstrated that areas with ≥100 SARS cases and closer proximity to the ROK had significantly larger percentage decreases in traveler volumes during the outbreak. Conclusions During the 2015 MERS outbreak, areas with a previous sizable SARS outbreak and areas near the ROK showed greater decreases in percentage changes in visitors to the ROK.

negative: Mining the Characteristics of COVID-19 Patients in China: Analysis of Social Media Posts BACKGROUND: In December 2019, pneumonia cases of unknown origin were reported in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. Identified as the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the number of cases grew rapidly by human-to-human transmission in Wuhan. Social media, especially Sina Weibo (a major Chinese microblogging social media site), has become an important platform for the public to obtain information and seek help. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the characteristics of suspected or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients who asked for help on Sina Weibo. METHODS: We conducted data mining on Sina Weibo and extracted the data of 485 patients who presented with clinical symptoms and imaging descriptions of suspected or laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19. In total, 9878 posts seeking help on Sina Weibo from February 3 to 20, 2020 were analyzed. We used a descriptive research methodology to describe the distribution and other epidemiological characteristics of patients with suspected or laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) infection. The distance between patients’ home and the nearest designated hospital was calculated using the geographic information system ArcGIS. RESULTS: All patients included in this study who sought help on Sina Weibo lived in Wuhan, with a median age of 63.0 years (IQR 55.0-71.0). Fever (408/485, 84.12%) was the most common symptom. Ground-glass opacity (237/314, 75.48%) was the most common pattern on chest computed tomography; 39.67% (167/421) of families had suspected and/or laboratory-confirmed family members; 36.58% (154/421) of families had 1 or 2 suspected and/or laboratory-confirmed members; and 70.52% (232/329) of patients needed to rely on their relatives for help. The median time from illness onset to real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing was 8 days (IQR 5.0-10.0), and the median time from illness onset to online help was 10 days (IQR 6.0-12.0). Of 481 patients, 32.22% (n=155) lived more than 3 kilometers away from the nearest designated hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that patients seeking help on Sina Weibo lived in Wuhan and most were elderly. Most patients had fever symptoms, and ground-glass opacities were noted in chest computed tomography. The onset of the disease was characterized by family clustering and most families lived far from the designated hospital. Therefore, we recommend the following: (1) the most stringent centralized medical observation measures should be taken to avoid transmission in family clusters; and (2) social media can help these patients get early attention during Wuhan’s lockdown. These findings can help the government and the health department identify high-risk patients and accelerate emergency responses following public demands for help.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: Health System and Community Response to a Text Message (Text4Hope) Program Supporting Mental Health in Alberta In an effort to support the mental health of Albertans during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, Alberta Health Services launched a supportive text message (Text4Mood) program on March 23, 2020. The program was simultaneously approved for funding by the 6 regional health foundations and launched within 1 week of conception. Residents of Alberta can subscribe to the program by texting “COVID19HOPE” to a sort code number. Each subscriber receives free daily supportive text messages, for 3 months, crafted by a team of clinical psychologists, psychiatrists, mental health therapist, and mental health service users. Within 1 week of the launch of Text4Hope, 32 805 subscribers had signed up to the program, and there have been expressions of interests from other jurisdictions to implement a similar program to support the mental health of those in quarantine, isolation, or lockdown.

negative: A Critical Appraisal of COVID-19 in Malaysia and Beyond When the first report of COVID-19 appeared in December 2019 from Wuhan, China, the world unknowingly perceived this as another flu-like illness. Many were surprised at the extreme steps that China had subsequently taken to seal Wuhan from the rest of the world. However, by February 2020, the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, had spread so quickly across the globe that the World Health Organization officially declared COVID-19 a pandemic. COVID-19 is not the first pandemic the world has seen, so what makes it so unique in Malaysia, is discussed to avoid a future coronacoma.

negative: Epidemiology of Covid-19 in a Long-Term Care Facility in King County, Washington BACKGROUND: Long-term care facilities are high-risk settings for severe outcomes from outbreaks of Covid-19, owing to both the advanced age and frequent chronic underlying health conditions of the residents and the movement of health care personnel among facilities in a region. METHODS: After identification on February 28, 2020, of a confirmed case of Covid-19 in a skilled nursing facility in King County, Washington, Public Health–Seattle and King County, aided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, launched a case investigation, contact tracing, quarantine of exposed persons, isolation of confirmed and suspected cases, and on-site enhancement of infection prevention and control. RESULTS: As of March 18, a total of 167 confirmed cases of Covid-19 affecting 101 residents, 50 health care personnel, and 16 visitors were found to be epidemiologically linked to the facility. Most cases among residents included respiratory illness consistent with Covid-19; however, in 7 residents no symptoms were documented. Hospitalization rates for facility residents, visitors, and staff were 54.5%, 50.0%, and 6.0%, respectively. The case fatality rate for residents was 33.7% (34 of 101). As of March 18, a total of 30 long-term care facilities with at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 had been identified in King County. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of rapidly escalating Covid-19 outbreaks, proactive steps by long-term care facilities to identify and exclude potentially infected staff and visitors, actively monitor for potentially infected patients, and implement appropriate infection prevention and control measures are needed to prevent the introduction of Covid-19.

negative: Are stock and real estate markets integrated? An empirical study of six Asian economies Abstract Rising asset prices spurred by Asia's emerging economy have drawn much attention recently. This study examines one source of growth patterns in asset prices by analyzing the integration relationship between stock markets and real estate markets in Asia. Six economies are selected for empirical analysis: China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan. Results show that stock markets are integrated with real estate markets in Japan, and partially integrated with real estate markets in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. This implies that these two investment vehicles are substitutable in China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Taiwan, and provide diversification potential for investment portfolios in South Korea and Singapore. Examining the timing of market changes, we found the real estate market leading the stock market in some countries, and the stock market leading the real estate market in others. We conclude that stock and real estate markets show a variety of inter-relationships depending on economic and political policy environments.

negative: 40 Cruise Ship Travel Abstract Cruise ships can be amplifiers of infectious diseases because of the close human proximity of semiclosed ship environments. The most common diagnoses of cruise passengers evaluated in cruise ship infirmaries include upper respiratory infections, injury, seasickness, and gastrointestinal illness. Cruise ship passengers may experience clusters of brief self-limited diarrheal disease, although this rate is much lower risk than on land. Certain groups, such as the elderly, pregnant women, and immunocompromised, might be more seriously affected by infectious diseases and stress of travel. Ensure the traveler has medical insurance (health and repatriation) that covers conditions in international waters.

negative: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Antibody Reactors Among Camels in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in 2005 We tested, using a low starting dilution, sequential serum samples from dromedary camels, sheep and horses collected in Dubai from February/April to October of 2005 and from dromedary camels for export/import testing between Canada and USA in 2000–2001. Using a standard Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) neutralization test, serial sera from three sheep and three horses were all negative while sera from 9 of 11 dromedary camels from Dubai were positive for antibodies supported by similar results in a MERS-CoV recombinant partial spike protein antibody ELISA. The two negative Dubai camels were both dromedary calves and remained negative over the 5 months studied. The six dromedary samples from USA and Canada were negative in both tests. These results support the recent findings that infection with MERS-CoV or a closely related virus is not a new occurrence in camels in the Middle East. Therefore, interactions of MERS-CoV at the human–animal interface may have been ongoing for several, perhaps many, years and by inference, a widespread pandemic may be less likely unless significant evolution of the virus allow accelerated infection and spread potential in the human population.

negative: Pangolin homology associated with 2019-nCoV To explore potential intermediate host of a novel coronavirus is vital to rapidly control continuous COVID-19 spread. We found genomic and evolutionary evidences of the occurrence of 2019-nCoV-like coronavirus (named as Pangolin-CoV) from dead Malayan Pangolins. Pangolin-CoV is 91.02% and 90.55% identical at the whole genome level to 2019-nCoV and BatCoV RaTG13, respectively. Pangolin-CoV is the lowest common ancestor of 2019-nCoV and RaTG13. The S1 protein of Pangolin-CoV is much more closely related to 2019-nCoV than RaTG13. Five key amino-acid residues involved in the interaction with human ACE2 are completely consistent between Pangolin-CoV and 2019-nCoV but four amino-acid mutations occur in RaTG13. It indicates Pangolin-CoV has similar pathogenic potential to 2019-nCoV, and would be helpful to trace the origin and probable intermediate host of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Viral shedding patterns of coronavirus in patients with probable severe acute respiratory syndrome Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is thought to be caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-associated coronavirus. We studied viral shedding of SARS coronavirus to improve diagnosis and infection control. Reverse-transcriptase PCR was done on 2134 specimens of different types. 355 (45%) specimens of nasopharyngeal aspirates and 150 (28%) of faeces were positive for SARS coronavirus RNA. Positive rates peaked at 6–11 days after onset of illness for nasopharyngeal aspirates (87 of 149 [58%], to 37 of 62 [60%]), and 9–14 days for faeces (15 of 22 [68%], to 26 of 37 [70%]). Overall, peak viral loads were reached at 12–14 days of illness when patients were probably in hospital care, which would explain why hospital workers were prone to infection. Low rate of viral shedding in the first few days of illness meant that early isolation measures would probably be effective.

negative: A simple method to quantify country-specific effects of COVID-19 containment measures Most of the world is currently fighting to limit the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Italy, the Western country with most COVID-19 related deaths, was the first to implement drastic containment measures in early March, 2020. Since then most other European countries, the USA, Canada and Australia, have implemented similar restrictions, ranging from school closures, banning of recreational activities and large events, to complete lockdown. Such limitations, and softer promotion of social distancing, may be more effective in one society than in another due to cultural or political differences. It is therefore important to evaluate the effectiveness of these initiatives by analyzing country-specific COVID-19 data. We propose to model COVID-19 dynamics with a SIQR (susceptible - infectious - quarantined - recovered) model, since confirmed positive cases are isolated and do not transmit the disease. We provide an explicit formula that is easily implemented and permits us to fit official COVID-19 data in a series of Western countries. We found excellent agreement with data-driven estimation of the day-of-change in disease dynamics and the dates when official interventions were introduced. Our analysis predicts that for most countries only the more drastic restrictions have reduced virus spreading. Further, we predict that the number of unidentified COVID-19-positive individuals at the beginning of the epidemic is ∼10 times the number of confirmed cases. Our results provide important insight for future planning of non-pharmacological interventions aiming to contain spreading of COVID-19 and similar diseases.

negative: Assessment of Temporary Community-Based Health Care Facilities During Arbaeenia Mass Gathering at Karbala, Iraq: Cross-Sectional Survey Study BACKGROUND: Arbaeenia mass gathering (MG) in Karbala, Iraq, is becoming one of the largest MGs in the world. The health care infrastructure in Iraq is inadequately prepared to serve the health needs of the millions of pilgrims. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the temporary health care facilities installed and run by the local community to provide health care services to Arbaeenia pilgrims in Karbala, Iraq. METHODS: A survey was conducted in all community-based health care facilities located along part of Najaf to Karbala road within Karbala governorate. A structured questionnaire was answered through an interview with the workers and direct observation. Data were collected on staff profile, type of services provided, use of basic infection control measures, medical equipment, drugs and supplies, and the most commonly encountered medical problems. RESULTS: The total number of health care facilities was 120, staffed by 659 workers. Only 18 (15.0%, 18/120) facilities were licensed, and 44.1% (53/120) of the workers were health professionals. The health care workers provided different services including dispensing drugs (370/1692, 21.87%), measuring blood pressure and blood sugar (350/1692, 20.69%), and caring for wounds and injuries (319/1692, 18.85%). Around 97% (116/120) health facilities provided services for musculoskeletal disorders and only 16.7% (20/120) provided services for injuries. The drugs available in the clinic were analgesics, drugs for gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, and antibiotics, with an availability range of 13.3% to 100.0%. Infection control practices for individual protection, environmental sanitation, and medical waste disposal were available in a range of 18.1% to 100.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based health care facilities experienced a profound shortage of trained human resources and medical supplies. They can significantly contribute to health services if they are adequately equipped and follow standardized operation procedures.

negative: Intervention strategies against COVID-19 and their estimated impact on Swedish healthcare capacity Objectives: During March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has rapidly spread globally, and non-pharmaceutical interventions are being used to reduce both the load on the healthcare system as well as overall mortality. Design: Individual-based transmission modelling using Swedish demographic and Geographical Information System data and conservative COVID-19 epidemiological parameters. Setting: Sweden Participants: A model to simulate all 10.09 million Swedish residents. Interventions: 5 different non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions including the mitigation strategy of the Swedish government as of 10 April; isolation of the entire household of confirmed cases; closure of schools and non-essential businesses with or without strict social distancing; and strict social distancing with closure of schools and non-essential businesses. Main outcome measures: Estimated acute care and intensive care hospitalisations, COVID-19 attributable deaths, and infections among healthcare workers from 10 April until 29 June. Findings: Our model for Sweden shows that, under conservative epidemiological parameter estimates, the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000). The most stringent public-health measures examined are predicted to reduce mortality by approximately three-fold. Intensive-care load at the peak could be reduced by over two-fold with a shorter period at peak pandemic capacity. Conclusions: Our results predict that, under conservative epidemiological parameter estimates, current measures in Sweden will result in at least 40-fold over-subscription of pre-pandemic Swedish intensive care capacity, with 15.8 percent of Swedish healthcare workers unable to work at the pandemic peak. Modifications to ICU admission criteria from international norms would further increase mortality.

negative: Protecting our health care workers while protecting our communities during the COVID-19 pandemic: a comparison of approaches and early outcomes in two Italian regions, Italy, 2020 Introduction Italy, which has been hard-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, has an overriding national strategy, but its 21 regions have adapted their response based on the organization of their curative and public health services. In this paper, we compare outcomes for two northern Italian regions which had almost simultaneous initial outbreaks: Lombardy, which had a patient-centered approach that relied on primary care physicians and hospital care, and Veneto, which focused on community-based diagnosis and care. Methods We used numerator and denominator data from public Italian government sources to calculate reported rates of COVID-19 testing/1000, COVID-19 cases/100,000 overall and for health care workers (HCWs) and non-HCWs, deaths per 100,000, and the percent of cases admitted to hospitals and ICUs for February 24-April 1, 2020. Results As of April 1, 2020, Lombardy experienced 44,733 cases and 7,539 deaths; for Veneto, the corresponding values were 9,625 and 499. The cumulative case rate was 445/100,000 for Lombardy and 196/100,000 for Veneto, a 2.3-fold difference. Mortality rates were 7.5 times higher in Lombardy than in Veneto (75/100,000 and 10/100,000, respectively). Cumulative rates of testing were nearly twice as high in Veneto and were 2.7 times higher in the first week of the epidemic. In Lombardy, 51.5% of patients were admitted, including, 5.2% to intensive care units; for Veneto, the corresponding figures were 25.1% and 4.3%, respectively. HCWs account for 14.3% of all cases in Lombardy compared with 4.4% in Veneto. In Lombardy, the rate among HCWs was 19.1 times higher than in the general population (6,924 versus 362 per 100,000), while in Veneto it was 3.9 times higher (676 versus 172/100,000). Discussion The community-based approach in Veneto appears to be associated with substantially reduced rates of cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and infection in HCWs compared with the patient-centered approach in Lombardy. Our findings suggest that the impact of COVID-19 can be reduced through strong and aggressive public health efforts to confirm and isolate cases and contacts in a timely way and to minimize unnecessary contact between HCWs and cases through home-based testing and pro-active home follow-up.

negative: COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality Background: Africa is the last major region to capitulate to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic. The first confirmed COVID-19 case in the region was reported on February 14, but what lies ahead in terms of the course and magnitude of infection remains speculative. To the best of our knowledge, no study, using a robust methodology, provides the immediate and long-term trajectory of COVID-19 for the entire region or accounts for its local context. This paper is the first systematic attempt to provide estimates on how many people would contract the virus and how many would die in the coming few months across Africa. Methods: The forecasts on caseloads and incidences are from a co-variate-based instrumental variable regression model. Fatality rates from Italy and China were further applied to generate mortality estimates after adjustments were made for differences in age-structure, health service quality, and living standards between each of the African countries and those of the reference population. We cover all countries that reported a confirmed case as of March 31, 2020. Results: By the end of June, 16,283,085 people will contract COVID-19 (95% CI 718,403 to 98, 358, 799). With a cumulative caseload of 5,413,4517 (95% CI 1,332,953 to 8,489,940) and 906,625 (95% CI 173, 821 to 4,742,917) Northern and Eastern Africa will respectively be the most and least affected sub-regions in the continent. Cumulative COVID-19 cases on June 30, 2020 are expected to reach 2,912, 864 (95% CI 465,028 to 18,286,358) in Southern Africa, 2,787, 913 (95% CI 517, 489 to 15,056,314) in Western Africa, and 1,185,742 (95% CI 229, 111 to 6,138,692) in Central Africa. New infections (incidence) for the month of April are expected to be the highest in Djibouti, 32.8 per 1000 (95% CI 6.25 to 171.77), while Morocco 1045 (95% CI 167 to 6,547) will register the highest number of deaths. Conclusion: Our study shows that countries that are least urbanized and have a low level of socio-economic development, hence least connected to the outside world, are likely to register lower and slower transmissions, at least at the early stage of the epidemic. However, the same set of enabling factors that worked for their benefit are likely to go against them in implementing interventions that have lessened the impact of the disease elsewhere.

negative: Estimating the Asymptomatic Proportion of 2019 Novel Coronavirus onboard the Princess Cruises Ship, 2020 The potential infectiousness of asymptomatic COVID-19 cases together with a substantial fraction of asymptomatic infections among all infections, have been highlighted in clinical studies. We conducted statistical modeling analysis to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of the positive COVID-19 infections onboard the Princess Cruises ship along with the timeline of infections. We estimated the asymptomatic proportion at 17.9% (95% CrI: 15.5%-20.2%), with most of the infections occurring before the start of the 2-week quarantine.

negative: Management of the Clinical and Academic Mission in an Urban Otolaryngology Department During the COVID-19 Global Crisis OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the strategic changes implemented in the departmental mission to continue safe delivery of otolaryngology care and to support the broader institutional mission during the COVID-19 pandemic response. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective assessment was performed to the response and management strategy developed to transform the clinical and academic enterprise. SETTING: Large urban tertiary care referral center. RESULTS: The departmental structure was reorganized along new clinical teams to effectively meet the system directives for provision of otolaryngology care and support for inpatient cases of COVID-19. A surge deployment schedule was developed to assist frontline colleagues with clinical support as needed. Outpatient otolaryngology was consolidated across the system with conversion of the majority of visits to telehealth. Operative procedures were prioritized to ensure throughput for emergent and time-critical urgent procedures. A tracheostomy protocol was developed to guide management of emergent and elective airways. Educational and research efforts were redirected to focus on otolaryngology care in the clinical context of the COVID-19 crisis. CONCLUSION: Emergence of the COVID-19 global health crisis has challenged delivery of otolaryngology care in an unparalleled manner. The concerns for preserving health of the workforce while ethically addressing patient career needs in a timely manner has created significant dilemmas. A proactive, thoughtful approach that reorganizes the overall departmental effort through provider and staff engagement can facilitate the ability to meet the needs of otolaryngology patients and to support the greater institutional mission to combat the pandemic.

negative: Real-Time Estimation of the Risk of Death from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection: Inference Using Exported Cases The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were confirmed outside China provide an opportunity to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in mainland China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand the pandemic potential of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number—the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naïve population. We modeled epidemic growth either from a single index case with illness onset on 8 December 2019 (Scenario 1), or using the growth rate fitted along with the other parameters (Scenario 2) based on data from 20 exported cases reported by 24 January 2020. The cumulative incidence in China by 24 January was estimated at 6924 cases (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4885, 9211) and 19,289 cases (95% CI: 10,901, 30,158), respectively. The latest estimated values of the cCFR were 5.3% (95% CI: 3.5%, 7.5%) for Scenario 1 and 8.4% (95% CI: 5.3%, 12.3%) for Scenario 2. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.1 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.2) and 3.2 (95% CI: 2.7, 3.7) for Scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on these results, we argued that the current COVID-19 epidemic has a substantial potential for causing a pandemic. The proposed approach provides insights in early risk assessment using publicly available data.

negative: COVI White Paper The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has caused significant strain on public health institutions around the world. Contact tracing is an essential tool to change the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. Manual contact tracing of Covid-19 cases has significant challenges that limit the ability of public health authorities to minimize community infections. Personalized peer-to-peer contact tracing through the use of mobile apps has the potential to shift the paradigm. Some countries have deployed centralized tracking systems, but more privacy-protecting decentralized systems offer much of the same benefit without concentrating data in the hands of a state authority or for-profit corporations. Machine learning methods can circumvent some of the limitations of standard digital tracing by incorporating many clues and their uncertainty into a more graded and precise estimation of infection risk. The estimated risk can provide early risk awareness, personalized recommendations and relevant information to the user. Finally, non-identifying risk data can inform epidemiological models trained jointly with the machine learning predictor. These models can provide statistical evidence for the importance of factors involved in disease transmission. They can also be used to monitor, evaluate and optimize health policy and (de)confinement scenarios according to medical and economic productivity indicators. However, such a strategy based on mobile apps and machine learning should proactively mitigate potential ethical and privacy risks, which could have substantial impacts on society (not only impacts on health but also impacts such as stigmatization and abuse of personal data). Here, we present an overview of the rationale, design, ethical considerations and privacy strategy of `COVI,' a Covid-19 public peer-to-peer contact tracing and risk awareness mobile application developed in Canada.

negative: COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus 2019) - recent trends. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a warning that, although the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan City (China), is not pandemic, it should be contained to prevent the global spread. The COVID-19 virus was known earlier as 2019-nCoV. As of 12 February 2020, WHO reported 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths related to COVID-19. COVID-19 is similar to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) virus in its pathogenicity, clinical spectrum, and epidemiology. Comparison of the genome sequences of COVID-19, SARS-CoV, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) showed that COVID-19 has a better sequence identity with SARS-CoV compared to MERS CoV. However, the amino acid sequence of COVID-19 differs from other coronaviruses specifically in the regions of 1ab polyprotein and surface glycoprotein or S-protein. Although several animals have been speculated to be a reservoir for COVID-19, no animal reservoir has been already confirmed. COVID-19 causes COVID-19 disease that has similar symptoms as SARS-CoV. Studies suggest that the human receptor for COVID-19 may be angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor similar to that of SARS-CoV. The nucleocapsid (N) protein of COVID-19 has nearly 90% amino acid sequence identity with SARS-CoV. The N protein antibodies of SARS-CoV may cross react with COVID-19 but may not provide cross-immunity. In a similar fashion to SARS-CoV, the N protein of COVID-19 may play an important role in suppressing the RNA interference (RNAi) to overcome the host defense. This mini-review aims at investigating the most recent trend of COVID-19.

negative: Urgent Measures for the Containment of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) Epidemic in the Neurorehabilitation/Rehabilitation Departments in the Phase of Maximum Expansion of the Epidemic COVID-19 has rapidly become a pandemic emergency, distressing health systems in each affected country. COVID-19 determines the need for healthcare in a large number of people in an extremely short time and, like a tsunami wave, overruns emergency, infectious diseases, and pneumology departments as well as intensive care units, choking healthcare services. Rehabilitation services are also affected by this epidemic which forces radical changes both in the organization and in the operating methods. In the absence of reference literature on this issue, this report aims to provide a background documentation to support physicians and healthcare personnel involved in neurorehabilitation and rehabilitation care.

negative: Coronavirus threat to Indian population: risk factors, transmission dynamics and preparedness to prevent the spread of the virus Recent novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan City of Hubei province in China infected nearly 70,000 individuals and killed more than 1700 people within a short span of time leading to global pandemic. The disease is now spread to 26 countries in Asia, North America, Europe and Australasia. The virus is spreading rapidly to Asia-pacific and Southeast Asian countries. The disease is posing a serious threat to human population and has devastating impact on public health and economy. So far 3 Indians are infected and India is at risk of rapid spread of the disease because of its geographical location and other favorable conditions. With a poorer global health security index compared to China (India-57 and China-51), any such situation will have worse outcome. In near future there are also possibilities of similar kind of disease outbreak caused by new strains of coronaviruses due to factors like species jump of new viruses, high population density and inadequate medical facilities. In this short review we have highlighted the risk factors and transmission dynamics of coronaviruses that may pose a serious threat to India. We have also discussed about the possible preventive measure our country should take to control any such outbreak situation.

negative: Outcome of Oncology Patients Infected With Coronavirus PURPOSE: This study investigated the features of oncology patients with confirmed Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) at the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs-Riyadh during the outbreak of June 2015 to determine the clinical course and outcome of affected patients. METHODS: The patients' demographic information, cancer history, treatment pattern, information about MERS-coronavirus (CoV) infection, history of travel, clinical symptoms, test results, and outcome were collected and analyzed as part of a quality improvement project to improve the care and safety of our patients. Only patients with confirmed infection were included. RESULTS: A total of 19 patients were identified, with a median age of 66 years (range, 16-88 years), and 12 patients (63%) were males. The most common underlying disease was hematologic malignancies (47.4%), followed by colorectal cancer (21%) and lung cancer (15.8%). Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common comorbidities (57.9% and 52.6%, respectively). Infection was diagnosed by nasopharyngeal swab in all patients. All patients contracted the infection during their hospitalization for other reasons. Sixteen patients (80%) were admitted to the intensive care unit; 13 patients (81%) had acute respiratory distress syndrome, 11 were intubated (68.75%), 9 had acute renal injury (56.25%), and 3 required dialysis (18.75%). Only 3 patients (15.8%) with early-stage cancers survived. Patients with hematologic malignancies and advanced solid tumors had a 100% case fatality rate. The majority of the causes of death were due to multi-organ failure and septic shock. CONCLUSION: MERS-CoV infection resulted in a high case fatality rate in patients with malignancy. Therefore, it is critical to implement effective primary preventive measures to avoid exposure of patients with cancer to the virus.

negative: Update on Streptococcus suis Research and Prevention in the Era of Antimicrobial Restriction: 4th International Workshop on S. suis † Streptococcus suis is a swine pathogen and a zoonotic agent afflicting people in close contact with infected pigs or pork meat. Sporadic cases of human infections have been reported worldwide. In addition, S. suis outbreaks emerged in Asia, making this bacterium a primary health concern in this part of the globe. In pigs, S. suis disease results in decreased performance and increased mortality, which have a significant economic impact on swine production worldwide. Facing the new regulations in preventive use of antimicrobials in livestock and lack of effective vaccines, control of S. suis infections is worrisome. Increasing and sharing of knowledge on this pathogen is of utmost importance. As such, the pathogenesis and epidemiology of the infection, antimicrobial resistance, progress on diagnosis, prevention, and control were among the topics discussed during the 4th International Workshop on Streptococcus suis (held in Montreal, Canada, June 2019). This review gathers together recent findings on this important pathogen from lectures performed by lead researchers from several countries including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Thailand, The Netherlands, UK, and USA. Finally, policies and recommendations for the manufacture, quality control, and use of inactivated autogenous vaccines are addressed to advance this important field in veterinary medicine.

negative: Structural, glycosylation and antigenic variation between 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) The emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is of global concern and might have emerged from RNA recombination among existing coronaviruses. CoV spike (S) protein which is crucial for receptor binding, membrane fusion via conformational changes, internalization of the virus, host tissue tropism and comprises crucial targets for vaccine development, remain largely uncharacterized. Therefore, the present study has been planned to determine the sequence variation, structural and antigenic divergence of S glycoprotein which may be helpful for the management of 2019-nCoV infection. The sequences of spike glycoprotein of 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) were used for the comparison. The sequence variations were determined using EMBOSS Needle pairwise sequence alignment tools. The variation in glycosylation sites was predicted by NetNGlyc 1.0 and validated by N-GlyDE server. Antigenicity was predicted by NetCTL 1.2 and validated by IEDB Analysis Resource server. The structural divergence was determined by using SuperPose Version 1.0 based on cryo-EM structure of the SARS coronavirus spike glycoprotein. Our data suggests that 2019-nCoV is newly spilled coronavirus into humans in China is closely related to SARS-CoV, which has only 12.8% of difference with SARS-CoV in S protein and has 83.9% similarity in minimal receptor-binding domain with SARS-CoV. Addition of a novel glycosylation sites were observed in 2019-nCoV. In addition, antigenic analysis proposes that great antigenic differences exist between both the viral strains, but some of the epitopes were found to be similar between both the S proteins. In spite of the variation in S protein amino acid composition, we found no significant difference in their structures. Collectively, for the first time our results exhibit the emergence of human 2019-nCoV is closely related to predecessor SARS-CoV and provide the evidence that 2019-nCoV uses various novel glycosylation sites as SARS-CoV and may have a potential to become pandemic owing its antigenic discrepancy. Further, demonstration of novel Cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitopes may impart opportunities for the development of peptide based vaccine for the prevention of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Current status and progress of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia/ 中华危重病急救医学 Recently, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia outbroke in Wuhan and rapidly spread to all over China and even the world. Because of the strong infectivity and various clinical symptoms, it has brought certain difficulties to the epidemic prevention and control. Currently there is no specific drug for 2019-nCoV. Previous drugs used to treat other coronaviruses may be effective, but further clinical trials remain needed. We reviewed literature on the epidemiology, etiology, clinical manifestations, imaging manifestations, laboratory examination, diagnosis, complications, treatment and outcome of 2019-nCoV pneumonia.

negative: COVID-19 Outbreak Situations in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis COVID-19 disease, as popularly known as Coronavirus 2019 disease, has been emerged from Wuhan, China in December 2019 and now is a pandemic for almost every nation in the earth. It affects every country without considering country's race, nationality and economic status. This paper aims at analysing primarily the current situations of Bangladesh and predicting infections and deaths for moderated term intervals by a proposed projection technique called Infection Trajectory-Pathway Strategy (ITPS) and for short term intervals prediction for total infections, deaths along with total number of severe patients and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients by polynomial regression modeling approach. Since April 7, Bangladesh has started to face critical situations as the number of infections has accelerated very fast in the following days. However, the fatality rate decreases considerably from 15.7 on April 1 to 4.9 on April 14, which is still high among the south asian countries. Of the 1012 cases reported on April 14, almost 70\% are the male, 42\% are from the capital Dhaka. We have found that the potential pathway of infections for Bangldesh would be the similar pathways that are experienced by Austria, Netherlands, Israel, France and United Kingdom. These countries are ahead a number of weeks and days in terms of infection cases since their 100-th confirmed cases. Our proposed projection method ITPS suggests that by May 10, Bangladesh will cross 12000 incidences and 720 deaths which, by May 16 will be 27000 and 1644 respectively. On the other hand, the regression model suggests that by the end of April, total number of infections, deaths, severe patients and ICU patients will be 5780, 347, 775, and 694 respectively. This study will be favorable for the administrative units of Bangladesh to plan for the next few weeks and to consider various aspects related to the control of COVID-19 outspread in Bangladesh

negative: Flattening the curve before it flattens us: hospital critical care capacity limits and mortality from novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) cases in US counties ABSTRACT Background As of March 26, 2020, the United States had the highest number of confirmed cases of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) of any country in the world. Hospital critical care is perhaps the most important medical system choke point in terms of preventing deaths in a disaster scenario such as the current COVID-19 pandemic. We therefore brought together previously established disease modeling estimates of the growth of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US under various social distancing contact reduction assumptions, with local estimates of the potential critical care surge response across all US counties. Methods Estimates of spatio-temporal COVID-19 demand and medical system critical care supply were calculated for all continental US counties. These estimates were statistically summarized and mapped for US counties, regions and urban versus non-urban areas. Estimates of COVID-19 infections and patients needing critical care were calculated from March 24, 2020 to April 24, 2020 for three different estimated population levels - 0%, 25%, and 50% - of contact reduction (through actions such as social distancing). Multiple national public and private datasets were linked and harmonized in order to calculate county-level critical care bed counts that included currently available beds and those that could be made available under four surge response scenarios - very low, low, medium, and high - as well as excess deaths stemming from inaccessible critical care. Results Surge response scenarios ranged from a very low total supply 77,588 critical care beds to a high total of 278,850 critical care beds. Over the four week study period, excess deaths from inaccessible critical care ranged from 24,688 in the very low response scenario to 13,268 in the high response scenario. Northeastern and urban counties were projected to be most affected by excess deaths due to critical care shortages, and counties in New York, Colorado, and Virginia were projected to exceed their critical care bed limits despite high levels of COVID-19 contact reduction. Over the four week study period, an estimated 12,203-19,594 excess deaths stemming from inaccessible critical care could be averted through greater preventive actions such as travel restrictions, publicly imposed contact precautions, greater availability of rapid testing for COVID-19, social distancing, self-isolation when sick, and similar interventions. An estimated 4,029-11,420 excess deaths stemming from inaccessible critical care could be averted through aggressive critical care surge response and preparations, including high clearance of ICU and non-ICU critical care beds and extraordinary measures like using a single ventilator for multiple patients. Conclusions Unless the epidemic curve of COVID-19 cases is flattened over an extended period of time, the US COVID-19 epidemic will cause a shortage of critical care beds and drive up otherwise preventable deaths. The findings here support value of preventive actions to flatten the epidemic curve, as well as the value of exercising extraordinary surge capacity measures to increase access to hospital critical care for severely ill COVID-19 patients.

negative: Mosaic structure of human coronavirus NL63, one thousand years of evolution

negative: From the frontlines of COVID-19 - How prepared are we as obstetricians: a commentary. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) - now known as Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)1 - as a global health emergency. Singapore currently stands as the country with the highest number of reported cases of COVID-19 outside of China2 , excluding patients on a cruise ship offshore of Japan.

negative: Perspectives on monoclonal antibody therapy as potential therapeutic intervention for Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19). Last decade witnessed the outbreak of many life-threatening human pathogens including Nipah, Ebola, Chikungunya, Zika, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), Severe Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and more recently novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV or SARS-CoV-2). The disease condition associated with novel coronavirus, referred to as Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The emergence of novel coronavirus in 2019 in Wuhan, China marked the third highly pathogenic coronavirus infecting humans in the 21st century. The continuing emergence of coronaviruses at regular intervals poses a significant threat to human health and economy. Ironically, even after a decade of research on coronavirus, still there are no licensed vaccines or therapeutic agents to treat coronavirus infection which highlights an urgent need to develop effective vaccines or post-exposure prophylaxis to prevent future epidemics. Several clinical, genetic and epidemiological features of COVID-19 resemble SARS-CoV infection. Hence, the research advancements on SARS-CoV treatment might help scientific community in quick understanding of this virus pathogenesis and develop effective therapeutic/prophylactic agents to treat and prevent this infection. Monoclonal antibodies represent the major class of biotherapeutics for passive immunotherapy to fight against viral infection. The therapeutic potential of monoclonal antibodies has been well recognized in the treatment of many diseases. Here, we summarize the potential monoclonal antibody based therapeutic intervention for COVID-19 by considering the existing knowledge on the neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against similar coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Further research on COVID-19 pathogenesis could identify appropriate therapeutic targets to develop specific anti-virals against this newly emerging pathogen.

negative: Chapter 13 National Health Systems Abstract Health care systems ideally include universal access to comprehensive prepaid medical care along with health promotion and disease prevention. National health insurance and national health services of various models have evolved in the developed world and increasingly in developing countries as well. Some models, such as the Bismarckian social security model and the Bereidge National Health Service model, or National Health insurance such as in pioneered in Canada, are used by a number of countries. The common features are based on principles of national responsibility and solidarity for health, social solidarity for providing funding and searching for effective ways of providing care. Various universal systems of health coverage exist in all industrialized countries, except in the United States which has a mix of public and private insurance but with high percentages of uninsured and poorly insured. Health reform is a continuing process as all countries aspire to assure health care for all. Aging populations, increasing costs, advancing and increasing technology all require nations to modify and adapt organization and financing systems of health care, health protection and promotion.

negative: Developing vaccines against epidemic-prone emerging infectious diseases Today’s world is characterized by increasing population density, human mobility, urbanization, and climate and ecological change. This global dynamic has various effects, including the increased appearance of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), which pose a growing threat to global health security. Outbreaks of EIDs, like the 2013–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa or the current Ebola outbreak in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), have not only put populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) at risk in terms of morbidity and mortality, but they also have had a significant impact on economic growth in affected regions and beyond. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation (CEPI) is an innovative global partnership between public, private, philanthropic, and civil society organizations that was launched as the result of a consensus that a coordinated, international, and intergovernmental plan was needed to develop and deploy new vaccines to prevent future epidemics. CEPI is focusing on supporting candidate vaccines against the World Health Organization (WHO) Blueprint priority pathogens MERS-CoV, Nipah virus, Lassa fever virus, and Rift Valley fever virus, as well as Chikungunya virus, which is on the WHO watch list. The current vaccine portfolio contains a wide variety of technologies, ranging across recombinant viral vectors, nucleic acids, and recombinant proteins. To support and accelerate vaccine development, CEPI will also support science projects related to the development of biological standards and assays, animal models, epidemiological studies, and diagnostics, as well as build capacities for future clinical trials in risk-prone contexts.

negative: Implications of the reverse associations between obesity prevalence and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and related deaths in the United States The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was most recently discovered, quickly evolved into a global pandemic. Studies suggested that obesity was a major risk factor for its hospitalization and severity of symptoms. This study investigated the associations between obesity prevalence with overall COVID-19 cases and related deaths across states in the United States. General regression and Chi-square tests were used to examine those associations. The analyses indicated that obesity prevalence (%) across states were negatively associated with COVID-19 cases (p = 0.0448) and related deaths (p = 0.0181), with a decrease of 158 cases/100K population and 13 deaths/100K for every 5% increase of the obesity prevalence. When the states were divided based on the median of obesity prevalence (30.9%) into a group of states with low obesity prevalence and a group with high obesity prevalence, both the cases (671 vs 416 cases/100k population) and deaths (39 vs 21 deaths/100k population) were significantly different (p < 0.001) across groups. These findings provided important information for the relationship between the dual pandemic threats of obesity and COVID-19. These results should not currently be considered as an indication that obesity is a protective factor for COVID-19, and would rather be used as a warning of the public advice that obese people is more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection, which may lead to a false safety message probably given to people with normal body weight.

negative: Feasibility of Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in the UK by Rolling Interventions Background: Recent outbreak of a novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has led a rapid global spread around the world. For controlling COVID-19 outbreaks, many countries have implemented two non-pharmaceutical interventions: suppression like immediate lockdowns in cities at epicentre of outbreak; or mitigation that slows down but not stopping epidemic for reducing peak healthcare demand. Both interventions have apparent pros and cons; the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is limited. We aimed to conduct a feasibility study for robustly estimating the number and distribution of infections, growth of deaths, peaks and lengths of COVID-19 breakouts by taking multiple pharmaceutical interventions in London and the UK, accounting for reduction of healthcare demand. Methods: We developed a model to attempt to infer the impact of mitigation, suppression and multiple rolling interventions for controlling COVID-19 outbreaks in London and the UK. Our model assumed that each intervention has equivalent effect on the reproduction number R across countries and over time; where its intensity was presented by average-number contacts with susceptible individuals as infectious individuals; early immediate intensive intervention led to increased health need and social anxiety. We considered two important features: direct link between Exposed and Recovered population, and practical healthcare demand by separation of infections into mild and critical cases. Our model was fitted and calibrated with data on cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei to estimate how suppression intervention impacted on the number and distribution of infections, growth of deaths over time during January 2020, and April 2020. We combined the calibrated model with data on the cases of COVID-19 in London, the UK (non-London) and the UK during February 2020 and March 2020 to estimate the number and distribution of infections, growth of deaths, and healthcare demand by using multiple interventions. Findings: We estimated given that multiple interventions with an intensity range from 3 to 15, one optimal strategy was to take suppression with intensity 3 in London from 23rd March for 100 days, and 3 weeks rolling intervention with intensity between 3 and 5 in non-London regions. In this scenario, the total infections and deaths in the UK were limited to 2.43 million and 33.8 thousand; the peak time of healthcare demand was due to the 65th day (April 11th), where it needs hospital beds for 25.3 thousand severe and critical cases. If we took a simultaneous 3 weeks rolling intervention with intensity between 3 and 5 in all regions of the UK, the total infections and deaths increased slightly to 2.69 million and 37 thousand; the peak time of healthcare kept the same at the 65th day, where it needs equivalent hospital beds for severe and critical cases of 25.3 thousand. But if we released high band of rolling intervention intensity to 6 or 8 and simultaneously implemented them in all regions of the UK, the COVID-19 outbreak would not end in 1 year and distribute a multi-modal mode, where the total infections and deaths in the UK possibly reached to 16.2 million and 257 thousand.

negative: Facemask shortage and the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Reflections on public health measures Abstract Background A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak due to the severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection occurred in China in late December 2019. Facemask wearing with proper hand hygiene is considered an effective measure to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but facemask wearing has become a social concern due to the global facemask shortage. China is the major facemask producer in the world, contributing to 50% of global production. However, a universal facemask wearing policy would put an enormous burden on the facemask supply. Methods We performed a policy review concerning facemasks using government websites and mathematical modelling shortage analyses based on data obtained from the National Health Commission (NHC), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and General Administration of Customs (GAC) of the People's Republic of China. Three scenarios with respect to wearing facemasks were considered: (1) a universal facemask wearing policy implementation in all regions of mainland China; (2) a universal facemask wearing policy implementation only in the epicentre (Hubei province, China); and (3) no implementation of a universal facemask wearing policy. Findings Regardless of different universal facemask wearing policy scenarios, facemask shortage would occur but eventually end during our prediction period (from 20 Jan 2020 to 30 Jun 2020). The duration of the facemask shortage described in the scenarios of a country-wide universal facemask wearing policy, a universal facemask wearing policy in the epicentre, and no universal facemask wearing policy were 132, seven, and four days, respectively. During the prediction period, the largest daily facemask shortages were predicted to be 589·5, 49·3, and 37·5 million in each of the three scenarios, respectively. In any scenario, an N95 mask shortage was predicted to occur on 24 January 2020 with a daily facemask shortage of 2·2 million. Interpretation Implementing a universal facemask wearing policy in the whole of China could lead to severe facemask shortage. Without effective public communication, a universal facemask wearing policy could result in societal panic and subsequently, increase the nationwide and worldwide demand for facemasks. These increased demands could cause a facemask shortage for healthcare workers and reduce the effectiveness of outbreak control in the affected regions, eventually leading to a pandemic. To fight novel infectious disease outbreaks, such as COVID-19, governments should monitor domestic facemask supplies and give priority to healthcare workers. The risk of asymptomatic transmission and facemask shortages should be carefully evaluated before introducing a universal facemask wearing policy in high-risk regions. Public health measures aimed at improving hand hygiene and effective public communication should be considered along with the facemask policy.

negative: Surgical Infection Society Guidance for Operative and Peri-Operative Care of Adult Patients Infected by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)-associated viral infection (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) is a virulent, contagious viral pandemic that is affecting populations worldwide. As with any airborne viral respiratory infection, surgical and non-surgical patients may be affected. Methods: Review and synthesis of pertinent English-language literature pertaining to COVID-19 infection among adult patients. Results: COVID-19 disease that requires hospitalization results in critical illness approximately 25% of the time and requires mechanical ventilation with positive airway pressure. Acute kidney injury, a marked hypercoagulable state, and sometimes myocarditis can be features of COVID-19 in addition to the characteristic severe acute lung injury. Even if not among the most seriously afflicted, older patients with medical comorbidities are both predisposed to infection and risk increased morbidity and mortality, however, all persons presenting for surgical intervention should be suspected of infection (and thus transmissibility) even if asymptomatic. Although most elective surgery has been curtailed by administrative or governmental fiat, patients will still need urgent or emergency operative intervention for time-sensitive disease processes such as malignant neoplasia or for true emergencies such as perforated viscus or traumatic injury. It is possible to provide safe surgical care for SARS-CoV-2-positive patients and minimize nosocomial transmission to healthcare workers. Conclusions: This guidance will facilitate appropriate protection of patients and staff, and maintenance of infection control measures to assist surgical personnel and facilities to prepare for COVID-19-infected adult patients requiring urgent or emergent operative intervention and to provide optimal patient care.

negative: Dynamic change process of target genes by RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2 during the course of a Coronavirus Disease 2019 patient Abstract We report the dynamic change process of target genes by RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2 during the course of a COVID-19 patient: from successive negative results to successive single positive nucleocapsid gene, to two positive target genes (orf1ab and nucleocapsid) by RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2, and describe the diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case. In this case, negative results of RT-PCR testing was not excluded to diagnose a suspected COVID-19 patient, clinical signs and symptoms, other laboratory findings, and chest CT images should be taken into account for the absence of enough positive evidence. This case highlights the importance of successive sampling and testing SARS-Cov-2 by RT-PCR as well as the increased value of single positive target gene from pending to positive in two specimens to diagnose laboratory-confirmed COVID-19.

negative: Risk Factors for SARS Transmission from Patients Requiring Intubation: A Multicentre Investigation in Toronto, Canada BACKGROUND: In the 2003 Toronto SARS outbreak, SARS-CoV was transmitted in hospitals despite adherence to infection control procedures. Considerable controversy resulted regarding which procedures and behaviours were associated with the greatest risk of SARS-CoV transmission. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to identify risk factors for transmission of SARS-CoV during intubation from laboratory confirmed SARS patients to HCWs involved in their care. All SARS patients requiring intubation during the Toronto outbreak were identified. All HCWs who provided care to intubated SARS patients during treatment or transportation and who entered a patient room or had direct patient contact from 24 hours before to 4 hours after intubation were eligible for this study. Data was collected on patients by chart review and on HCWs by interviewer-administered questionnaire. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) logistic regression models and classification and regression trees (CART) were used to identify risk factors for SARS transmission. RESULTS: 45 laboratory-confirmed intubated SARS patients were identified. Of the 697 HCWs involved in their care, 624 (90%) participated in the study. SARS-CoV was transmitted to 26 HCWs from 7 patients; 21 HCWs were infected by 3 patients. In multivariate GEE logistic regression models, presence in the room during fiberoptic intubation (OR = 2.79, p = .004) or ECG (OR = 3.52, p = .002), unprotected eye contact with secretions (OR = 7.34, p = .001), patient APACHE II score ≥20 (OR = 17.05, p = .009) and patient Pa0(2)/Fi0(2) ratio ≤59 (OR = 8.65, p = .001) were associated with increased risk of transmission of SARS-CoV. In CART analyses, the four covariates which explained the greatest amount of variation in SARS-CoV transmission were covariates representing individual patients. CONCLUSION: Close contact with the airway of severely ill patients and failure of infection control practices to prevent exposure to respiratory secretions were associated with transmission of SARS-CoV. Rates of transmission of SARS-CoV varied widely among patients.

negative: Forecasting COVID-19 impact in India using pandemic waves Nonlinear Growth Models The ongoing pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in China and devastated a vast majority of countries. In India, COVID-19 cases are steadily increasing since January 30, 2020, and the government-imposed lockdown across the country to curtail community transmission. COVID-19 forecasts have played an important role in capturing the probability of infection and the basic reproduction rate. In this study, we predicted some trajectories of trajectories associated with COVID-19 in the coming days in India using an Auto-regression integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Richards model. By the end of April 2020, the incidence of new cases is predicted to be 5200 (95% CI: 4650 to 6002) through the ARIMA model versus be 6378 (95% CI: 4904 to 7851) Richard model. We estimated that there would be a total of 197 (95% CI: 118 to 277) deaths and drop down in the recovery rates will reach around 501 (95% CI: 245 to 758) by the end of April 2020. These estimates can help to strengthen the implementation of strategies to increase the health system capacity and enactment of social distancing measures all over India.

negative: Synanthropy of Wild Mammals as a Determinant of Emerging Infectious Diseases in the Asian–Australasian Region Humans create ecologically simplified landscapes that favour some wildlife species, but not others. Here, we explore the possibility that those species that tolerate or do well in human-modified environments, or ‘synanthropic’ species, are predominantly the hosts of zoonotic emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). We do this using global wildlife conservation data and wildlife host information extracted from systematically reviewed emerging infectious disease literature. The evidence for this relationship is examined with special emphasis on the Australasian, South East Asian and East Asian regions. We find that synanthropic wildlife hosts are approximately 15 times more likely than other wildlife in this region to be the source of emerging infectious diseases, and this association is essentially independent of the taxonomy of the species. A significant positive association with EIDs is also evident for those wildlife species of low conservation risk. Since the increase and spread of native and introduced species able to adapt to human-induced landscape change is at the expense of those species most vulnerable to habitat loss, our findings suggest a mechanism linking land conversion, global decline in biodiversity and a rise in EIDs of wildlife origin.

negative: Assessment of health care personnel needs for training in infection control: one size does not fit all To guide development of infection control education, we conducted a pilot needs assessment to determine current infection control knowledge, identify potential gaps between knowledge and practice, and identify perceived training needs among a varied group of health care personnel. A total of 23 health care personnel from various disciplines and health care settings completed the self-administered Web-based survey. Differences in knowledge and self-identified training needs were found among disciplines. Future research may well focus on further exploring specific needs of different disciplines. These results will be used to inform topics to cover in infection control curricula for clinicians, public health professionals, and allied health personnel.

negative: Nonpharmaceutical Interventions for Pandemic Influenza, National and Community Measures The World Health Organization's recommended pandemic influenza interventions, based on limited data, vary by transmission pattern, pandemic phase, and illness severity and extent. In the pandemic alert period, recommendations include isolation of patients and quarantine of contacts, accompanied by antiviral therapy. During the pandemic period, the focus shifts to delaying spread and reducing effects through population-based measures. Ill persons should remain home when they first become symptomatic, but forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical. If the pandemic is severe, social distancing measures such as school closures should be considered. Nonessential domestic travel to affected areas should be deferred. Hand and respiratory hygiene should be routine; mask use should be based on setting and risk, and contaminated household surfaces should be disinfected. Additional research and field assessments during pandemics are essential to update recommendations. Legal authority and procedures for implementing interventions should be understood in advance and should respect cultural differences and human rights.

negative: The prevalance of respiratory viruses among healthcare workers serving pilgrims in Makkah during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic Summary Despite the high risk of acquiring respiratory infections, healthcare workers who treat pilgrims at Hajj have not been studied in previous research on respiratory diseases during Hajj. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of different respiratory viruses among healthcare workers who treated pilgrims during Hajj 2009, the year of the influenza A H1N1 pandemic. A cross-sectional study was performed just before and after Hajj (25–29 November, 2009). Nasal and throat swabs were tested for 18 respiratory virus types and subtypes. A total of 184 healthcare workers were examined. Most were men (85%) with an average age of 41 years. Before the Hajj, rates of seasonal influenza vaccination were higher (51%) than rates of pandemic influenza A H1N1 vaccination (22%). After the Hajj, participants reported high rates of maintaining hand hygiene (98%), cough etiquette (89%), and wearing a face mask (90%). Among all the viruses tested, only two were detected: rhinovirus was detected in 12.6% and Coronavirus 229E in 0.6%. Rhinovirus was detected in 21% of those who had respiratory symptoms during Hajj. Influenza A (including H1N1), influenza B. respiratory syncytial virus, other coronaviruses, parainfluenza viruses, human metapneumovirus, adenovirus, and human bocavirus were not detected. The finding of high rates of rhinovirus infection corresponds to their frequent occurrence in adults. None of the participants had influenza A H1N1 2009, possibly because it was also infrequent among the 2009 pilgrims.

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV): A review. As a novel coronavirus first reported by Saudi Arabia in 2012, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for an acute human respiratory syndrome. The virus, of 2C beta-CoV lineage, expresses the dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) receptor and is densely endemic in dromedary camels of East Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. MERS-CoV is zoonotic but human-to-human transmission is also possible. Surveillance and phylogenetic researches indicate MERS-CoV to be closely associated with bats' coronaviruses, suggesting bats as reservoirs, although unconfirmed. With no vaccine currently available for MERS-CoV nor approved prophylactics, its global spread to over 25 countries with high fatalities highlights its role as ongoing public health threat. An articulated action plan ought to be taken, preferably from a One Health perspective, for appropriately advanced countermeasures against MERS-CoV.

negative: The legal extension of the role of pharmacists in light of the COVID-19 global pandemic BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 epidemic has affected every area of life. The greatest challenge has been to adapt the functioning of the health service to prevent the spread of the epidemic and to help infected patients. This has required the involvement of not only doctors and nurses, but also pharmacists. In the face of this pandemic, governments in many countries have granted pharmacists greater authority. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to review the legal extension of the role of pharmacists in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review considers recent changes in European countries, Canada, and the United States. METHODS: A literature review was performed to summarise knowledge about the extension of the role of pharmacists during the pandemic period. Key articles were retrieved mainly from PubMed and Google Scholar, using the terms "COVID-19", "2019-nCoV", "coronavirus", and "pandemic" in combination with "pharmacist" as keywords for our search. We included scientific publications from February 1, 2019 to May 15, 2020. RESULTS: Pharmacists have been given numerous opportunities so that they can actively join in the fight against the virus. Some of the novel legal extensions aimed at aiding overloaded healthcare systems are as follows: authorisation to prepare hand and surface disinfectants, eligibility to renew chronic treatment prescriptions, as well as filling pro auctore and pro familia prescriptions by pharmacists, performing COVID-19, influenza, and Group A Streptococcus screening tests, and vaccine administration. Moreover, many countries have facilitated Internet services, such as virtual medical consultations, e-prescriptions, and home drug delivery - to promote social distancing among patients. To mitigate drug shortages, the following strategies have been implemented: alternative sourcing, strength, generic, or therapeutic substitution, and preparing compounded formulations at the pharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: Novel legal extensions have allowed exploitation of the full potential ofpharmacists worldwide, aiding the limited resources of overloaded healthcare systems.

negative: Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID) in Canadian Children: A National Surveillance Study PURPOSE: Severe Combined Immune Deficiency (SCID) is universally fatal unless treated with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Following the identification of disseminated Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) infections in Canadian First Nations, Métis and Inuit (FNMI) children with unrecognized primary immune deficiencies, a national surveillance study was initiated in order to determine the incidence, diagnosis, treatment and outcome of children with SCID in Canada. METHODS: Canadian pediatricians were asked to complete a monthly reporting form if they had seen a suspected SCID case, from 2004 to 2010, through the Canadian Paediatric Surveillance Program (CPSP). If the case met CPSP SCID criteria, more detailed data, including demographics and clinical information about investigations, treatment and outcome was collected. RESULTS: A total of 40 cases of SCID were confirmed for an estimated incidence of SCID in non-FNMI Canadian children of 1.4 per 100,000 live births (95 % CI 1 to 1.9/100,000). The proportion of SCID cases that were FNMI (17.5 %) was almost three times higher than was expected on the basis of proportion of the pediatric population estimated to be FNMI (6.3 %) resulting in an estimated incidence of 4.4 per 100,000 live births (95 % CI 2.1 to 9.2/100,000) in FNMI Canadian children. The mean age at diagnosis for all SCID cases was 4.2 months (range 1–583 days). There were 12 deaths (30 %; 95 % CI 18–46 %); seven died of confirmed or suspected infections before they could receive an HSCT. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of SCID cases in FNMI children is higher than in the general Canadian pediatric population. The high mortality rate, due primarily to infection, suggests that early diagnosis by newborn screening followed by HSCT could significantly benefit children with SCID.

negative: Sociodemographic Determinants of Occupational Risks of Exposure to COVID-19 in Canada. The activities performed by Canadian workers in some occupations may increase the risk of exposure to infectious diseases such as COVID-19. This research note explores how occupational exposure risks vary by labor force characteristics using publicly available Canadian data in combination with a data set providing information on the level of physical proximity and frequency of exposure to infections or diseases faced by workers in different occupations. The results show important sociodemographic differences. First, women work in occupations associated with significantly higher average risks of exposure to COVID-19 than men. This is driven by their overrepresentation in high-risk broad occupational categories such as health occupations. Second, older workers (65 years or more), a group vulnerable to COVID-19, appear to work in occupations requiring performing activities characterized by a lower level of physical proximity than their younger colleagues, with minimal differences in the frequency of exposure to diseases or infections. Finally, workers in low-income occupations are employed in occupations that put them at greater risk of exposure to COVID-19 than other workers. This is especially the case for women, immigrants, and members of visible minority groups in low-income occupations. More broadly, this research note provides insights into the health-related dimension of the literature on occupational tasks and labor market stratification.

negative: Use of an Innovative Web-Based Laboratory Surveillance Platform to Analyze Mixed Infections Between Human Metapneumovirus (hMPV) and Other Respiratory Viruses Circulating in Alberta (AB), Canada (2009–2012) We investigated the proportions of mono vs. mixed infections for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) as compared to adenovirus (ADV), four types of coronavirus (CRV), parainfluenza virus (PIV), RSV, and enterovirus/rhinovirus (ERV) in Alberta, Canada. Using the Data Integration for Alberta Laboratories (DIAL) platform, 26,226 respiratory specimens at ProvLab between 1 July 2009 and 30 June 2012 were selected and included in the study. Using the Respiratory Virus Panel these specimens tested positive for one or more respiratory virus and negative for influenza A and B. From our subset hMPV was the fourth most common virus (n=2,561) with 373 (15%) identified as mixed infection using DIAL. Mixed infection with hMPV was most commonly found in infants less than 6 months old and ERV was most commonly found in mixed infection with hMPV (230/373, 56%) across all age groups. The proportion of mixed-infection vs. mono-infection was highest for ADV (46%), followed by CRV 229E (32%), CRV HKU1 (31%), CRV NL63 (28%), CRV OC43 (23%), PIV (20%), RSV (17%), hMPV (15%) and ERV (13%). hMPV was significantly more likely to be identified in mono infection as compared with ADV, CRV, PIV, and RSV with the exception of ERV [p<0.05].

negative: Prognostic factors in patients with diabetes hospitalized for COVID-19: Findings from the CORONADO study and other recent reports Abstract Diabetes mellitus is challenging in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The prevalence of diabetes patients hospitalized in intensive care units for COVID-19 is two- to threefold higher, and the mortality rate at least double, than that of non-diabetes patients. As the population with diabetes is highly heterogeneous, it is of major interest to determine the risk factors of progression to a more serious life-threatening COVID-19 infection. This brief review discusses the main findings of CORONADO, a prospective observational study in France that specifically addressed this issue as well as related observations from other countries, mainly China and the US. Some prognostic factors beyond old age have been identified: for example, an increased body mass index is a major risk factor for requiring respiratory assistance. Indeed, obesity combines several risk factors, including impaired respiratory mechanics, the presence of other comorbidities and inappropriate inflammatory responses, partly due to ectopic fat deposits. While previous diabetic microvascular (renal) and macrovascular complications also increase risk of death, the quality of past glucose control had no independent influence on hospitalized diabetes patient outcomes, and whether the quality of glucose control might modulate risk of COVID-19 in non-hospitalized diabetes patients is still unknown. In addition, no negative signs regarding the use of RAAS blockers and DPP-4 inhibitors and outcomes of COVID-19 could be identified. Hyperglycaemia at the time of hospital admission is associated with poor outcomes, but it may simply be considered a marker of severity of the infection. Thus, the impact of glucose control during hospitalization on outcomes related to COVID-19, which was not investigated in the CORONADO study, is certainly deserving of specific investigation.

negative: Why case fatality ratios can be misleading: individual- and population-based mortality estimates and factors influencing them Different ways of calculating mortality during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the "CFR" has been interchangeably called the case fatality ratio, case fatality rate, and case fatality risk, often without standard mathematical definitions. The most commonly used CFR is thecase fatality ratio, typically constructed using the estimated number of deaths to date divided by the estimated total number of confirmed infected cases to date. How does this CFR relate to an infected individual's probability of death? To explore such issues, we formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection duration-dependent SIR model to define individual- and population-based estimates of dynamic mortality measures to show that neither of these are directly represented by the case fatality ratio. The key parameters that affect the dynamics of different mortality estimates are the incubation period and the time individuals were infected before confirmation of infection. Using data on the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, we estimate and compare the different dynamic mortality estimates and highlight their differences. Informed by our modeling, we propose more systematic methods to determine mortality during epidemic outbreaks and discuss sensitivity to confounding effects and uncertainties in the data such as undertesting and heterogeneous populations.

negative: Brazil Health Care System preparation against COVID-19 Background: The coronavirus disease outbreak from 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a highly contagious virus that claimed thousands of lives around the world and disrupted the health system in many countries. The assessment of emergency capacity in every country is a necessary part of the COVID-19 response efforts. Thus, it is extremely recommended to evaluate the health care system to prepare the country to tackle COVID-19 challenges. Methods and Findings: A retrospective and ecological study was performed with data retrieved from the public national healthcare database (DATASUS). Numbers of intensive care unit and infirmary beds, general or intensivists physicians, nurses, nursing technicians, and ventilators from each Regional Health Unity were extracted, and the beds per health professionals and ventilators per population rates were assessed. The accessibility to health services was also performed using a spatial overlay approach to verify regions that lack assistance. It was found that Brazil lacks equity, integrity, and may struggle to assist with high complexity for the COVID-19 patients in many regions of the country. Conclusions: Brazilian health system is insufficient to tackle the COVID-19 in some regions of the country where the coronavirus may be responsible for high rates of morbidity and mortality.

negative: Status of SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients on renal replacement therapy Report of the COVID-19 Registry of the Spanish Society of Nephrology (SEN) Summary The recent appearance of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic has had a significant impact on the general population. Patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT) have not been unaware of this situation and due to their characteristics they are especially vulnerable. We present the results of the analysis of the COVID-19 Registry of the Spanish Society of Nephrology. Material and methods The Registry began operating on March 18th, 2020. It collects epidemiological variables, contagion and diagnosis data, signs and symptoms, treatments and outcomes. It is an “online” registry. Patients were diagnosed with SARS-Cov-2 infection based on the results of the PCR of the virus, carried out both in patients who had manifested compatible symptoms or had suspicious signs, as well as in those who had undergone screening after some contact. acquainted with another patient. Results As of April 11, the Registry had data on 868 patients, from all the Autonomous Communities. The most represented form of TRS is in-center hemodialysis (ICH) followed by transplant patients. Symptoms are similar to the general population. A very high percentage (85%) required hospital admission, 8% in intensive care units. The most used treatments were hydroxychloroquine, lopinavir-ritonavir, and steroids. Mortality is high and reaches 23%; deceased patients were more frequently on ICH, developed pneumonia more frequently, and received less frequently lopinavir-ritonavir and steroids. Age and pneumonia were independently associated with the risk of death. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 infection already affects a significant number of Spanish patients on RRT, mainly those on ICH, hospitalization rates are very high and mortality is high; age and the development of pneumonia are factors associated with mortality.

negative: More effective strategies are required to strengthen public awareness of COVID-19: Evidence from Google Trends BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed stress on the health and well-being of both Chinese people and the public worldwide. Global public interest in this new issue largely reflects people’s attention to COVID-19 and their willingness to take precautionary actions. This study aimed to examine global public awareness of COVID-19 using Google Trends. METHODS: Using Google Trends, we retrieved public query data for terms of “2019-nCoV + SARS-CoV-2 + novel coronavirus + new coronavirus + COVID-19 + Corona Virus Disease 2019” between the 31(st) December 2019 and the 24(th) February 2020 in six major English-speaking countries, including the USA, the UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Dynamic series analysis demonstrates the overall change trend of relative search volume (RSV) for the topic on COVID-19. We compared the top-ranking related queries and sub-regions distribution of RSV about COVID-19 across different countries. The correlation between daily search volumes on the topic related to COVID-19 and the daily number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed. RESULTS: The overall search trend of RSV regarding COVID-19 increased during the early period of observing time and reached the first apex on 31(st) January 2020. A shorter response time and a longer duration of public attention to COVID-19 was observed in public from the USA, the UK, Australia, and Canada, than that in Ireland and New Zealand. A slightly positive correlation between daily RSV about COVID-19 and the daily number of confirmed cases was observed (P < 0.05). People across countries presented a various interest to the RSV on COVID-19, and public awareness of COVID-19 was different in various sub-regions within countries. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that public response time to COVID-19 was different across countries, and the overall duration of public attention was short. The current study reminds us that governments should strengthen the publicity of COVID-19 nationally, strengthen the public's vigilance and sensitivity to COVID-19, inform public the importance of protecting themselves with enough precautionary measures, and finally control the spread of COVID-19 globally.

negative: Diarrhea may be underestimated: a missing link in 2019 novel coronavirus The outbreak of pneumonia caused by the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported in Wuhan City, China. However, the clinical symptoms varied in different reports. Based on the results of inter-group difference test, we found that the incidence of diarrhea differed in three recent reports. As 2019-nCoV utilizes the same cell entry receptor ACE2 as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and ACE2 tightly controls intestinal inflammation, to trace the route of infection mediated by 2019-nCoV, we used the single-cell RNA sequencing data for analysis. We found that the ACE2 mRNA was highly expressed in the healthy human small intestine rather than the lung. Besides, single-cell RNA sequencing data showed that ACE2 was significantly elevated in the proximal and distal enterocytes, where the small intestinal epithelium is exposed to the foreign pathogen. Thus, we suspect that ACE2-expressing small intestinal epithelium cells might be vulnerable to 2019-nCoV infection when people eat infected wild animals and diarrhea may serve as an indicator for infection, suggesting that clinicians should pay more attention to patients with diarrhea during the outbreak of pneumonia.

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in a Liver Transplant Recipient and Guidelines for Donor SARS Screening Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a recently described infectious entity with salient features of fever, headache and malaise, with rapid progression to pneumonitis. The etiology of SARS is likely a novel coronavirus. During the winter of 2003, an outbreak of SARS involving several hospitals occurred in Toronto, Canada. We describe a patient post liver transplant who contracted SARS and died during the outbreak, with subsequent infection of family and several health‐care workers. A novel coronavirus was detected in respiratory specimens by PCR. Due to the potential severity of SARS in transplant recipients and the large number of cases of SARS in the community, in order to avoid transmission of SARS from a donor, we developed guidelines for SARS screening of organ donors. A screening tool based on potential hospital SARS exposure, clinical symptoms, and epidemiological exposure was used to stratify donors as high, intermediate or low risk for SARS. As SARS spreads throughout the world, it may become an increasingly significant problem for transplant patients and programs.

negative: Cardiovascular Implications of Fatal Outcomes of Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) IMPORTANCE: Increasing numbers of confirmed cases and mortality rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are occurring in several countries and continents. Information regarding the impact of cardiovascular complication on fatal outcome is scarce. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of underlying cardiovascular disease (CVD) and myocardial injury with fatal outcomes in patients with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective single-center case series analyzed patients with COVID-19 at the Seventh Hospital of Wuhan City, China, from January 23, 2020, to February 23, 2020. Analysis began February 25, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Demographic data, laboratory findings, comorbidities, and treatments were collected and analyzed in patients with and without elevation of troponin T (TnT) levels. RESULT: Among 187 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 144 patients (77%) were discharged and 43 patients (23%) died. The mean (SD) age was 58.50 (14.66) years. Overall, 66 (35.3%) had underlying CVD including hypertension, coronary heart disease, and cardiomyopathy, and 52 (27.8%) exhibited myocardial injury as indicated by elevated TnT levels. The mortality during hospitalization was 7.62% (8 of 105) for patients without underlying CVD and normal TnT levels, 13.33% (4 of 30) for those with underlying CVD and normal TnT levels, 37.50% (6 of 16) for those without underlying CVD but elevated TnT levels, and 69.44% (25 of 36) for those with underlying CVD and elevated TnTs. Patients with underlying CVD were more likely to exhibit elevation of TnT levels compared with the patients without CVD (36 [54.5%] vs 16 [13.2%]). Plasma TnT levels demonstrated a high and significantly positive linear correlation with plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels (β = 0.530, P < .001) and N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels (β = 0.613, P < .001). Plasma TnT and NT-proBNP levels during hospitalization (median [interquartile range (IQR)], 0.307 [0.094-0.600]; 1902.00 [728.35-8100.00]) and impending death (median [IQR], 0.141 [0.058-0.860]; 5375 [1179.50-25695.25]) increased significantly compared with admission values (median [IQR], 0.0355 [0.015-0.102]; 796.90 [401.93-1742.25]) in patients who died (P = .001; P < .001), while no significant dynamic changes of TnT (median [IQR], 0.010 [0.007-0.019]; 0.013 [0.007-0.022]; 0.011 [0.007-0.016]) and NT-proBNP (median [IQR], 352.20 [174.70-636.70]; 433.80 [155.80-1272.60]; 145.40 [63.4-526.50]) was observed in survivors (P = .96; P = .16). During hospitalization, patients with elevated TnT levels had more frequent malignant arrhythmias, and the use of glucocorticoid therapy (37 [71.2%] vs 69 [51.1%]) and mechanical ventilation (41 [59.6%] vs 14 [10.4%]) were higher compared with patients with normal TnT levels. The mortality rates of patients with and without use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers was 36.8% (7 of 19) and 25.6% (43 of 168). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Myocardial injury is significantly associated with fatal outcome of COVID-19, while the prognosis of patients with underlying CVD but without myocardial injury is relatively favorable. Myocardial injury is associated with cardiac dysfunction and arrhythmias. Inflammation may be a potential mechanism for myocardial injury. Aggressive treatment may be considered for patients at high risk of myocardial injury.

negative: Data Driven Modeling of Projected Mitigation and Suppressing Strategy Interventions for SARS-COV 2 in Ghana In the midst of pandemic for respiratory illness, the call for non-pharmaceutical interventions become the highest priority for infectious disease and public health experts, while the race towards vaccine or medical intervention are ongoing. Individuals may modify their behavior and take preventative steps to reduce infection risk in the bid to adhere to the call by government officials and experts. As a result, the existence of relationship between the preliminary and the final transmission rates become feeble. This study evaluates the behavioral changes (mitigation and suppression measures) proposed by public health experts for COVID-19 which had altered human behavior and their day to day lives. The dynamics underlying the mitigation and suppression measures reduces the contacts among citizens and significantly interfere with their physical and social behavior. The results show all the measures have a significant impact on the decline of transmission rate. However, the mitigation measures might prolong the elimination of the transmission which might lead to a severe economic meltdown, yet, a combination of the measures show a possibility of rooting out transmission within 30 days if adhered to in an extreme manner. The result shows a peak period of infection for Ghana ranges from 64th day to 74th day of infection time period.

negative: Pandemic H1N1 in Canada and the use of evidence in developing public health policies – A policy analysis Abstract When responding to a novel infectious disease outbreak, policies are set under time constraints and uncertainty which can limit the ability to control the outbreak and result in unintended consequences including lack of public confidence. The H1N1 pandemic highlighted challenges in public health decision-making during a public health emergency. Understanding this process to identify barriers and modifiable influences is important to improve the response to future emergencies. The purpose of this study is to examine the H1N1 pandemic decision-making process in Canada with an emphasis on the use of evidence for public health decisions. Using semi-structured key informant interviews conducted after the pandemic (July–November 2010) and a document analysis, we examined four highly debated pandemic policies: use of adjuvanted vaccine by pregnant women, vaccine priority groups and sequencing, school closures and personal protective equipment. Data were analysed for thematic content guided by Lomas' policy decision-making framework as well as indicative coding using iterative methods. We interviewed 40 public health officials and scientific advisors across Canada and reviewed 76 pandemic policy documents. Our analysis revealed that pandemic pre-planning resulted in strong beliefs, which defined the decision-making process. Existing ideological perspectives of evidence strongly influenced how information was used such that the same evidentiary sources were interpreted differently according to the ideological perspective. Participants recognized that current models for public health decision-making failed to make explicit the roles of scientific evidence in relation to contextual factors. Conflict avoidance theory explained policy decisions that went against the prevailing evidence. Clarification of roles and responsibilities within the public health system would reduce duplication and maintain credibility. A more transparent and iterative approach to incorporating evidence into public health decision-making that reflects the realities of the external pressures present during a public health emergency is needed.

negative: 26th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine, 21–24 March 2006, Brussels, Belgium

negative: Real-time PCR-based SARS-CoV-2 detection in Canadian Laboratories With emergence of pandemic COVID-19, rapid and accurate diagnostic testing is essential. This study compared laboratory-developed tests (LDTs) used for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Canadian hospital and public health laboratories, and some commercially available real-time RT-PCR assays. Overall, analytical sensitivities were equivalent between LDTs and most commercially available methods.

negative: Pandemics, regional outbreaks, and sudden-onset disasters Pandemics of influenza, cholera, and plague are part of global history. Regional epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, primarily influenza A, continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality while remaining unpredictable in nature. Sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes and floods occur with little warning. The consequences of climate change and environmental degradation can only be expected to increase the incidence of some infectious diseases and weather-related crises, adding to the unpredictability of such events. Health system leaders, both in public health and healthcare, need to understand the international context and how coordination and response across or within jurisdictions will improve the likelihood of successful management of challenges. Public health emergencies respect no borders or political structures. The ability of institutions to adapt quickly can make a difference in health outcomes and a community’s trust in those institutions.

negative: Where do pets fit into human quarantines? Currently, there are over 400 viral zoonoses in the world. In addition, there are numerous bacterial zoonoses. Of the emerging diseases, <75% are zoonoses. The potential for household transmission through pets is now being considered in any new disease when information is incomplete regarding potential hosts, and the risk for interspecies transmission is unknown. The possible role of household pets in disease transmission in community-based quarantines has previously been overlooked.

negative: Chapter 15 Biology and Diseases of Ruminants (Sheep, Goats, and Cattle) Ruminants continue to be important in their traditional role in agricultural research and teaching. They are now also extensively used for studies in molecular biology; genetic engineering; and biotechnology for basic science, agricultural and clinical applications. Concern and interest for the welfare for these species and improved understanding of their biology and behavior have continued and are reflected in changing husbandry and management systems. This chapter addresses at high levels basic biology, husbandry, and the more common or important diseases of the three ruminant species used most commonly in the laboratory, namely sheep, goats and cattle.

negative: Practical Guidance for Outpatient Spasticity Management During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: Canadian Spasticity COVID-19 Task Force

negative: Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of severe coronavirus disease 2019 in California and Washington: prospective cohort study OBJECTIVE: To understand the epidemiology and burden of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) during the first epidemic wave on the west coast of the United States. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente integrated healthcare delivery systems serving populations in northern California, southern California, and Washington state. PARTICIPANTS: 1840 people with a first acute hospital admission for confirmed covid-19 by 22 April 2020, among 9 596 321 healthcare plan enrollees. Analyses of hospital length of stay and clinical outcomes included 1328 people admitted by 9 April 2020 (534 in northern California, 711 in southern California, and 83 in Washington). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cumulative incidence of first acute hospital admission for confirmed covid-19, and subsequent probabilities of admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality, as well as duration of hospital stay and ICU stay. The effective reproduction number (RE ) describing transmission dynamics was estimated for each region. RESULTS: As of 22 April 2020, cumulative incidences of a first acute hospital admission for covid-19 were 15.6 per 100 000 cohort members in northern California, 23.3 per 100 000 in southern California, and 14.7 per 100 000 in Washington. Accounting for censoring of incomplete hospital stays among those admitted by 9 April 2020, the estimated median duration of stay among survivors was 9.3 days (with 95% staying 0.8 to 32.9 days) and among non-survivors was 12.7 days (1.6 to 37.7 days). The censoring adjusted probability of ICU admission for male patients was 48.5% (95% confidence interval 41.8% to 56.3%) and for female patients was 32.0% (26.6% to 38.4%). For patients requiring critical care, the median duration of ICU stay was 10.6 days (with 95% staying 1.3 to 30.8 days). The censoring adjusted case fatality ratio was 23.5% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 28.2%) among male inpatients and 14.9% (11.8% to 18.6%) among female inpatients; mortality risk increased with age for both male and female patients. Reductions in RE were identified over the study period within each region. CONCLUSIONS: Among residents of California and Washington state enrolled in Kaiser Permanente healthcare plans who were admitted to hospital with covid-19, the probabilities of ICU admission, of long hospital stay, and of mortality were identified to be high. Incidence rates of new hospital admissions have stabilized or declined in conjunction with implementation of social distancing interventions.

negative: Predicting mortality attributable to SARS-CoV-2: A mechanistic score relating obesity and diabetes to COVID-19 outcomes in Mexico BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has posed a challenge to the healthcare systems due to high complications rates observed in patients with cardiometabolic diseases, such as diabetes and obesity. Despite the high prevalence of these conditions, a mechanistic association of its interactions in COVID-19 remain unclear. Here, we identify risk factors and propose a clinical score to predict 30-day lethality in COVID-19 cases, including specific factors for diabetes and obesity and its role in improving risk prediction. METHODS: We obtained data of suspected, confirmed and negative COVID-19 cases and their demographic and health characteristics from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of Mexican Ministry of Health. We investigated specific risk factors associated to SARS-CoV-2 positivity and mortality due to COVID-19. Additionally, we explored the impact of diabetes and obesity on COVID-19 related outcomes and their interaction with other comorbidities in modifying COVID-19 related lethality. Finally, we built our clinical score to predict 30-day lethality using the previously identified risk factors. RESULTS: Among 49,570 evaluated subjects (at April 19th, 2020), we observed an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 positivity (n=8,261) in those with diabetes, obesity, male subjects and in patients with diabetes and age <40 years (early-onset). Risk factors for increased lethality in COVID-19 includes early-onset diabetes obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, advanced age, immunosuppression, and chronic kidney disease; we also found that obesity mediates 47.8% of the effect of diabetes on COVID-19 lethality. Early-onset diabetes conferred an increased risk of hospitalization and obesity conferred an increased risk for ICU admission and intubation. Our predictive score for COVID-19 lethality included age [≥]65 years, diabetes, diabetes & age <40 years, obesity, age <40 years, CKD, pregnancy and immunosuppression and a categorization of low-risk, mild-risk, moderate-risk, high-risk and very high-risk significantly discriminates lethal from non-lethal COVID-19 cases (c-statistic=0.837). CONCLUSIONS: Here, we propose a mechanistic approach to evaluate risk for complication and lethality attributable to COVID-19 in patients with obesity and diabetes patients in a country with high susceptibility. Furthermore, our novel score offers a clinical tool for quick determination of high-risk susceptibility patients in a first contact scenario.

negative: COVID-19: Global radiation oncology’s targeted response for pandemic preparedness Abstract As the global COVID-19 pandemic escalates there is a need within radiation oncology to work to support our patients in the best way possible. Measures are required to reduce infection spread between patients and within the workforce. Departments need contingency planning to create capacity and continue essential treatments despite a reduced workforce. The #radonc community held an urgent online journal club on Twitter in March 2020 to discuss these issues and create some consensus on crucial next steps. There were 121 global contributors. This document summarises these discussions around themes of infection prevention, rationalisation of workload and working practice in the presence of infection.

negative: Connecting BCG Vaccination and COVID-19: Additional Data The reasons for a wide variation in severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across the affected countries of the world are not known. Two recent studies have suggested a link between the BCG vaccination policy and the morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19. In the present study we compared the impact of COVID-19 in terms of case fatality rates (CFR) between countries with high disease burden and those with BCG revaccination policies presuming that revaccination practices would have provided added protection to the population against severe COVID-19. We found a significant difference in the CFR between the two groups of countries. Our data further supports the view that universal BCG vaccination has a protective effect on the course of COVID-19 probably preventing progression to severe disease and death. Clinical trials of BCG vaccine are urgently needed to establish its beneficial role in COVID-19 as suggested by the epidemiological data, especially in countries without a universal BCG vaccination policy. Keywords: COVID-19, BCG vaccination, case fatality ratio, mortality, low resource countries

negative: A model to estimate demand for personal protective equipment for Ontario acute care hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic In addition to instituting public health measures for COVID-19, managing healthcare resources is important for outcomes. The experiences in Italy and New York have shown that personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages can cause increased morbidity and mortality. We demonstrate a method to predict PPE demand across a health care system.

negative: Canadian Association of Thoracic Radiology/Canadian Association of Radiologists Consensus Statement Regarding Chest Imaging in Suspected and Confirmed COVID-19. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared infection related to a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) a pandemic. The role and impact of imaging predates this declaration and continues to change rapidly. This article is a consensus statement provided by the Canadian Society of Thoracic Radiology and the Canadian Association of Radiologists outlining the role of imaging in COVID-19 patients. The objectives are to answer key questions related to COVID-19 imaging of the chest and provide guidance for radiologists who are interpreting such studies during this pandemic. The role of chest radiography (CXR), computed tomography (CT), and lung ultrasound is discussed. This document attempts to answer key questions for the imager when dealing with this crisis, such as "When is CXR appropriate in patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection?" or "How should a radiologist deal with incidental findings of COVID-19 on CT of the chest done for other indications?" This article also provides recommended reporting structure for CXR and CT, breaking diagnostic possibilities for both CXR and CT into 3 categories: typical, nonspecific, and negative based on imaging findings with representative images provided. Proposed reporting language is also outlined based on this structure. As our understanding of this pandemic evolves, our appreciation for how imaging fits into the workup of patients during this unprecedented time evolves as well. Although this consensus statement was written using the most recent literature, it is important to maintain an open mind as new information continues to surface.

negative: Early events of SARS coronavirus infection in vero cells An isolate from a patient in the recent severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Singapore was used to infect Vero E6 cells. This study concentrated on the first 30 min of infection. It was discovered that the SARS coronavirus attached, entered, and uncoated the nucleocapsids, all within a 30‐min period. At 5 min after infection, several virus particles lined the Vero cell plasma membrane. Virus particles were at various stages of fusion at the cell surface, since entry was not a synchronised process. After entry (10 and 15 min), spherical core particles moved into the cytoplasm within large vacuoles. Quite surprising at such early stages of infection (20 min), a virus‐induced change in the infected cells was evident. The induction of myelin‐like membrane whorls was obvious within the same vacuoles as the core particles. The significance of this virus‐induced change is unknown at this stage. By 25–30 min postinfection (p.i.), the spherical core particles appeared to be disassociating and, in their place, doughnut‐shaped electron‐dense structures were observed. These could be the virus genomes together with the helical nucleocapsids. They were no longer in large vacuoles but packaged into smaller vacuoles in the cytoplasm, and occasionally in small groups. J. Med. Virol. 71:323–331, 2003. © 2003 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

negative: Predicting the receptor-binding domain usage of the coronavirus based on kmer frequency on spike protein

negative: SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration Pneumonia patients of 2019-ncov in latent period are not easy to be effectively quarantined, but there is evidence that they have strong infectious ability. Here, the infectious ability of patients during the latent period is slightly less than that of the infected patients was assumed. We established a new SEIR propagation dynamics model, that considered the weak transmission ability of the incubation period, the variation of the incubation period length, and the government intervention measures to track and isolate comprehensively. Based on the raw epidemic data of China from January 23, 2020 to February 10, 2020, the dynamic parameters of the new present SEIR model are fitted. Through the Euler integration algorithm to solve the model, the effect of infectious ability of incubation patients on the theoretical estimation of the present SEIR model was analyzed, and the occurrence time of peak number in China was predicted.

negative: How much of SARS-CoV-2 Infections is India detecting? A model-based estimation Background and Rationale: Amid SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, the low number of infections for a population size of 1.38 billion is widely discussed, but with no definite answers. Methods: We used the model proposed by Bommer and Vollmer to assess the quality of official case records. The infection fatality rates were taken from Verity et al (2020). Age distribution of the population for India and states are taken from the Census of India (2011). Reported number of deaths and SARS-CoV-2 confirmed cases from https://www.covid19india.org. The reported numbers of samples tests were collected from the reports of the Indian Council for Medical Research (ICMR). Results: The findings suggest that India is detecting just 3.6% of the total number of infections with a huge variation across its states. Among 13 states which have more than 100 COVID-19 cases, the detection rate varies from 81.9% (of 410 estimated infections) in Kerala to 0.8% (of 35487 estimated infections) in Madhya Pradesh and 2.4% (of 7431 estimated infections) in Gujarat. Conclusion: As the study reports a lower number of deaths and higher recovery rates in the states with a high detection rate, thus suggest that India must enhance its testing capacity and go for widespread testing. Late detection puts patients in greater need of mechanical ventilation and ICU care, which imposes greater costs on the health system. The country should also adopt population-level random testing to assess the prevalence of the infection.

negative: Malnutrition Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Considerations for Registered Dietitian Nutritionists Evidence Analysis Center Abstract Recent evidence examining adults infected with COVID-19 has indicated a significant impact of malnutrition on health outcomes. Individuals who have multiple comorbidities, are older adults, or who are malnourished are at increased risk of being admitted to the intensive care unit and of mortality from COVID-19 infections. Hence, nutrition care to identify and address malnutrition is critical in treating and preventing further adverse health outcomes from COVID-19 infection. This document provides guidance and practice considerations for Registered Dietitian Nutritionists (RDNs) providing nutrition care for adults with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection in the hospital, outpatient, or homecare settings. In addition, this document discusses and provides considerations for RDNs working with individuals at risk of malnutrition secondary to food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: what might we expect?

negative: Viral diseases of the rabbit Viral disease in the rabbit is encountered infrequently by the clinical practitioner; however, several viral diseases were reported to occur in this species. Viral diseases that are described in the rabbit primarily may affect the integument, gastrointestinal tract or, central nervous system or maybe multi-systemic in nature. Rabbit viral diseases range from oral papillomatosis, with benign clinical signs, to rabbit hemorrhagic disease and myxomatosis, which may result in significant clinical disease and mortality. The wild rabbit may serve as a reservoir for disease transmission for many of these viral agents. In general, treatment of viral disease in the rabbit is supportive in nature.

negative: A Downward Trend of the Ratio of Influenza RNA Copy Number to Infectious Viral Titer in Hospitalized Influenza A-Infected Patients Background. Efficacy endpoints in influenza clinical trials may include clinical symptoms and virological measurements, although virology cannot serve as the primary endpoint. We investigated the relationship between influenza A RNA copy number and quantity of infectious viruses in hospitalized influenza patients. Methods. One hundred fifty influenza-infected, hospitalized patients were included in this prospective cohort study spanning the 2012–2013 influenza season. Daily nasopharyngeal samples were collected during hospitalization, and influenza A RNA copy number and infectious viral titer were monitored. Results. The decay rate for 50% tissue culture infectious dose (TCID(50)) was 0.51 ± 0.14 log(10) TCID(50)/mL per day, whereas the RNA copy number decreased at a rate of 0.41 ± 0.04 log(10) copies/mL per day (n = 433). The log ratio of the RNA copy number to the infectious viral titer within patient changes significantly with −0.25 ± 0.09 units per day (P = .0069). For a 12-day observation period, the decay corresponds to a decline of this ratio of 3 log influenza RNA copies. Conclusions. Influenza RNA copy number in nasal swabs is co-linear with culture, although the rate of decay of cell culture-based viral titers was faster than that observed with molecular methods. The study documented a clear decreasing log ratio of the RNA copy number to the infectious viral titer of the patients over time.

negative: Machine learning using intrinsic genomic signatures for rapid classification of novel pathogens: COVID-19 case study As of February 20, 2020, the 2019 novel coronavirus (renamed to COVID-19) spread to 30 countries with 2130 deaths and more than 75500 confirmed cases. COVID-19 is being compared to the infamous SARS coronavirus, which resulted, between November 2002 and July 2003, in 8098 confirmed cases worldwide with a 9.6% death rate and 774 deaths. Though COVID-19 has a death rate of 2.8% as of 20 February, the 75752 confirmed cases in a few weeks (December 8, 2019 to February 20, 2020) are alarming, with cases likely being under-reported given the comparatively longer incubation period. Such outbreaks demand elucidation of taxonomic classification and origin of the virus genomic sequence, for strategic planning, containment, and treatment. This paper identifies an intrinsic COVID-19 genomic signature and uses it together with a machine learning-based alignment-free approach for an ultra-fast, scalable, and highly accurate classification of whole COVID-19 genomes. The proposed method combines supervised machine learning with digital signal processing for genome analyses, augmented by a decision tree approach to the machine learning component, and a Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient analysis for result validation. These tools are used to analyze a large dataset of over 5000 unique viral genomic sequences, totalling 61.8 million bp. Our results support a hypothesis of a bat origin and classify COVID-19 as Sarbecovirus, within Betacoronavirus. Our method achieves high levels of classification accuracy and discovers the most relevant relationships among over 5,000 viral genomes within a few minutes, ab initio, using raw DNA sequence data alone, and without any specialized biological knowledge, training, gene or genome annotations. This suggests that, for novel viral and pathogen genome sequences, this alignment-free whole-genome machine-learning approach can provide a reliable real-time option for taxonomic classification.

negative: Reverse Logistics Network Design for Effective Management of Medical Waste in Epidemic Outbreaks: Insights from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in Wuhan (China) The outbreak of an epidemic disease may pose significant treats to human beings and may further lead to a global crisis. In order to control the spread of an epidemic, the effective management of rapidly increased medical waste through establishing a temporary reverse logistics system is of vital importance. However, no research has been conducted with the focus on the design of an epidemic reverse logistics network for dealing with medical waste during epidemic outbreaks, which, if improperly treated, may accelerate disease spread and pose a significant risk for both medical staffs and patients. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel multi-objective multi-period mixed integer program for reverse logistics network design in epidemic outbreaks, which aims at determining the best locations of temporary facilities and the transportation strategies for effective management of the exponentially increased medical waste within a very short period. The application of the model is illustrated with a case study based on the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China. Even though the uncertainty of the future COVID-19 spread tendency is very high at the time of this research, several general policy recommendations can still be obtained based on computational experiments and quantitative analyses. Among other insights, the results suggest installing temporary incinerators may be an effective solution for managing the tremendous increase of medical waste during the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, but the location selection of these temporary incinerators is of significant importance. Due to the limitation on available data and knowledge at present stage, more real-world information are needed to assess the effectiveness of the current solution.

negative: Hospital-acquired viral pathogens in the neonatal intensive care unit Hospital-acquired infections caused by viruses are a cause of considerable morbidity and occasional mortality in critically ill neonates. The intensive care environment allows for efficient spread of viral pathogens, and secondary cases among both patients and healthcare workers are frequently observed. We review the common viral causes of hospital-acquired infections in neonates, including rotavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, and others, discuss epidemiology and clinical syndromes, and summarize recommendations for control in outbreak situations. Chemoprophylaxis, isolation procedures, and care of affected staff are also addressed.

negative: Inequality in acute respiratory infection outcomes in the United States: A review of the literature and its implications for public health policy and practice. Seasonal and pandemic respiratory viruses such as influenza and the novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) currently sweeping the globe have often been described as 'equal opportunity infectors', implying little socioeconomic disparity in susceptibility. However, early data from the COVID-19 pandemic has underscored that the burden of respiratory viruses actually reflect and magnify existing socioeconomic inequalities. We review the literature on socioeconomic and racial disparities in acute respiratory infection (ARI), as well as ARI-associated hospitalization and mortality. Our goal is to identify key principles of the relationship between socioeconomic inequality and ARI outcomes, as well as highlighting poorly understood areas that need to be addressed by research and policy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that there has been descriptive work in this area, but that there is a distinct lack of cohesive methodology in the literature exploring social determinants and ARI. We propose the fundamental cause theory is a useful framework for guiding future research of disparities in ARI and for the design of interventions to alleviate these disparities.

negative: Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China Importance: In December 2019, novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, China. The number of cases has increased rapidly but information on the clinical characteristics of affected patients is limited. Objective: To describe the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of NCIP. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective, single-center case series of the 138 consecutive hospitalized patients with confirmed NCIP at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University in Wuhan, China, from January 1 to January 28, 2020; final date of follow-up was February 3, 2020. Exposures: Documented NCIP. Main Outcomes and Measures: Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological, and treatment data were collected and analyzed. Outcomes of critically ill patients and noncritically ill patients were compared. Presumed hospital-related transmission was suspected if a cluster of health professionals or hospitalized patients in the same wards became infected and a possible source of infection could be tracked. Results: Of 138 hospitalized patients with NCIP, the median age was 56 years (interquartile range, 42-68; range, 22-92 years) and 75 (54.3%) were men. Hospital-associated transmission was suspected as the presumed mechanism of infection for affected health professionals (40 [29%]) and hospitalized patients (17 [12.3%]). Common symptoms included fever (136 [98.6%]), fatigue (96 [69.6%]), and dry cough (82 [59.4%]). Lymphopenia (lymphocyte count, 0.8 × 109/L [interquartile range {IQR}, 0.6-1.1]) occurred in 97 patients (70.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (13.0 seconds [IQR, 12.3-13.7]) in 80 patients (58%), and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (261 U/L [IQR, 182-403]) in 55 patients (39.9%). Chest computed tomographic scans showed bilateral patchy shadows or ground glass opacity in the lungs of all patients. Most patients received antiviral therapy (oseltamivir, 124 [89.9%]), and many received antibacterial therapy (moxifloxacin, 89 [64.4%]; ceftriaxone, 34 [24.6%]; azithromycin, 25 [18.1%]) and glucocorticoid therapy (62 [44.9%]). Thirty-six patients (26.1%) were transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) because of complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (22 [61.1%]), arrhythmia (16 [44.4%]), and shock (11 [30.6%]). The median time from first symptom to dyspnea was 5.0 days, to hospital admission was 7.0 days, and to ARDS was 8.0 days. Patients treated in the ICU (n = 36), compared with patients not treated in the ICU (n = 102), were older (median age, 66 years vs 51 years), were more likely to have underlying comorbidities (26 [72.2%] vs 38 [37.3%]), and were more likely to have dyspnea (23 [63.9%] vs 20 [19.6%]), and anorexia (24 [66.7%] vs 31 [30.4%]). Of the 36 cases in the ICU, 4 (11.1%) received high-flow oxygen therapy, 15 (41.7%) received noninvasive ventilation, and 17 (47.2%) received invasive ventilation (4 were switched to extracorporeal membrane oxygenation). As of February 3, 47 patients (34.1%) were discharged and 6 died (overall mortality, 4.3%), but the remaining patients are still hospitalized. Among those discharged alive (n = 47), the median hospital stay was 10 days (IQR, 7.0-14.0). Conclusions and Relevance: In this single-center case series of 138 hospitalized patients with confirmed NCIP in Wuhan, China, presumed hospital-related transmission of 2019-nCoV was suspected in 41% of patients, 26% of patients received ICU care, and mortality was 4.3%.

negative: Otorhinolaryngologists and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

negative: Emergence of SARS-like coronavirus in China: An update

negative: Un mundo, una salud: la epidemia por el nuevo coronavirus COVID-19

negative: Prevalence and Mortality of COVID-19 patients with Gastrointestinal Symptoms: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis Abstract Objectives To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis evaluating the prevalence of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms and mortality in patients diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods A systematic search of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Scopus was performed from 2019 to May 7th, 2020. Observational studies including adults with COVID-19 infection and reporting GI symptoms were included. Primary outcome was assessing weighted pooled prevalence (WPP) of GI symptoms in patients with COVID-19. Secondary outcomes were WPP of overall mortality, and mortality in COVID-19 patients with GI symptoms. Results A total of 78 studies with 12797 patients were included. Among GI symptoms (at onset of illness in 6, at admission in 17, data given separately for both in 3, data unavailable in 52 studies), WPP of diarrhea was 12% (95% CI, 8%-17%), I 2 =94%, nausea and/or vomiting was 9.0% (95% CI, 5.5%-12.9%). I 2 =93%, loss of appetite was 22.3% (95% CI, 11.2%-34.6%, I 2 =94%, and that of abdominal pain was 6.2% (95% CI, 2.6%-10.3%, I 2 =92%. Mortality among patients with GI symptoms [0.4% (95% CI, 0%-1.1%), I 2 =74%] was similar to overall mortality [2.1% (95% CI, 0.2%-4.7%), I 2 =94%], p=0.15. Majority of studies had high risk of bias and overall quality of evidence was low to very low for all outcomes. Conclusions Gastrointestinal symptoms are seen in up to one in five patients with COVID-19. More high quality evidence is needed to confirm these findings and to explore factors causing mortality in these patients.

negative: European Society For Emergency Medicine position paper on emergency medical systems’ response to COVID-19 The 2019 novel coronavirus acute respiratory epidemic is creating a stressed situation in all the health systems of the affected countries. Emergency medical systems and specifically the emergency departments as the front line of the health systems are suffering from overload and severe working conditions, the risk of contagion and transmission of the health professionals adds a substantial burden to their daily work. Under the perspective of European Society For Emergency Medicine, the recommendations provided by the health authorities are reviewed focus on the emergency department’s activity.

negative: Respiratory support for patients with COVID-19 infection

negative: The Socio-Economic Implications of the Coronavirus and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 1.4 million confirmed cases and over 83,000 deaths globally. It has also sparked fears of an impending economic crisis and recession. Social distancing, self-isolation and travel restrictions forced a decrease in the workforce across all economic sectors and caused many jobs to be lost. Schools have closed down, and the need of commodities and manufactured products has decreased. In contrast, the need for medical supplies has significantly increased. The food sector has also seen a great demand due to panic-buying and stockpiling of food products. In response to this global outbreak, we summarise the socio-economic effects of COVID-19 on individual aspects of the world economy.

negative: Optimal timing for social distancing during an epidemic Social distancing is an effective way to contain the spread of a contagious disease, particularly when facing a novel pathogen and no pharmacological interventions are available. In such cases, conventional wisdom suggests that social distancing measures should be introduced as soon as possible after the beginning of an outbreak to more effectively mitigate the spread of the disease. Using a simple epidemiological model we show that, however, there is in fact an optimal time to initiate a temporal social distancing intervention if the goal is to reduce the final epidemic size or flatten the epidemic curve. The optimal timing depends strongly on the effective reproduction number (R0) of the disease, such that as the R0 increases, the optimal time decreases non-linearly. Additionally, if pharmacological interventions (e.g., a vaccine) become available at some point during the epidemic, the sooner these interventions become available the sooner social distancing should be initiated to maximize its effectiveness. Although based on a simple model, we hope that these insights inspire further investigations within the context of more complex and data-driven epidemiological models, and can ultimately help decision makers to improve temporal social distancing policies to mitigate the spread of epidemics.

negative: Practical insights for paediatric otolaryngology surgical cases and performing microlaryngobronchoscopy during the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract Paediatric otolaryngology practice involves examining and operating in anatomical locations with high levels of aerosol generation and transmission of COVID-19 to treating clinicians, especially from the asymptomatic patient populations including children. During the COVID-19 pandemic all emergent otolaryngological conditions affecting the airway, oral, and nasal cavities should be managed medically where possible and any operating deferred. We present guidelines for operating on paediatric otolaryngological patients when necessary during the COVID-19 pandemic, and incorporate experience gathered during microlaryngobronchoscopy on a COVID-19 positive infant at our institution.

negative: Curating evidence on mental health during COVID-19: A living systematic review

negative: Comparison of risk factors for viral and nonviral asthma exacerbations

negative: DIC in COVID-19: Implications for prognosis and treatment?

negative: Difference of coagulation features between severe pneumonia induced by SARS-CoV2 and non-SARS-CoV2 Severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is commonly complicated with coagulopathy, the difference of coagulation features between severe pneumonia induced by SARS-CoV2 and non-SARS-CoV2 has not been analyzed. Coagulation results and clinical features of consecutive patients with severe pneumonia induced by SARS-CoV2 (COVID group) and non-SARS-CoV2 (non-COVID group) in Tongji hospital were retrospectively analyzed and compared. Whether patients with elevated D-dimer could benefit from anticoagulant treatment was evaluated. There were 449 COVID patients and 104 non-COVID patients enrolled into the study. The 28-day mortality in COVID group was approximately twofold of mortality in non-COVID group (29.8% vs. 15.4%, P = 0.003), COVID group were older (65.1 ± 12.0 vs. 58.4 ± 18.0, years, P < 0.001) and with higher platelet count (215 ± 100 vs. 188 ± 98, ×10(9)/L, P = 0.015), comparing to non-COVID group. The 28-day mortality of heparin users were lower than nonusers In COVID group with D-dimer > 3.0 μg/mL (32.8% vs. 52.4%, P = 0.017). Patients with severe pneumonia induced by SARS-CoV2 had higher platelet count than those induced by non-SARS-CoV2, and only the former with markedly elevated D-dimer may benefit from anticoagulant treatment.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection in Toronto children: a second look. OBJECTIVES During the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak of 2003, there was an impetus to provide clinical information to the medical community in a timely manner. Accordingly, a preliminary report of our experience of suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infections in children was published without microbiological findings. This report provides an update on pediatric severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infections in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, that includes microbiological findings. METHODS All of the children admitted to the Hospital for Sick Children between March 14 and June 15, 2003, with suspect severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection were included. A proven case was defined as one that fulfilled the clinical criteria for suspect severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection and demonstrated a serologic response to severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus. Serology results, from a neutralizing antibody assay, were considered positive if the sera inhibited the development of a severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus-specific cytopathic effect at a dilution of > or =1:8. RESULTS Neutralizing antibody to severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus was demonstrated in 8 of 25 children admitted with suspect severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection. In 3 of these 8 children, severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus was also detected by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction in the stool. All 8 had documented exposure to > or =1 severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus-infected adults residing in the same household. Exposure that was limited to visiting a Toronto hospital at which severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus-infected patients were admitted or travel from a country in which severe acute respiratory syndrome had been reported did not result in documented infection in any of our cases. On the basis of our clinical case definition, 6 of 8 microbiologically confirmed case had been classified as having probable severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection. Clinical disease was mild, nonspecific, and self-limited and was indistinguishable from that reported with other common respiratory viruses. CONCLUSIONS The factor most strongly associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus infection in Toronto children was a history of close contact with an adult severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus case. This serves to reinforce the importance of routinely obtaining a thorough epidemiologic travel and exposure history for all subjects with suspected infectious diseases.

negative: Characteristics, comorbidities, 30-day outcome and in-hospital mortality of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in a Swiss area - a retrospective cohort study. BACKGROUND Since its first description in December 2019, coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide. There is limited information about presenting characteristics and outcomes of Swiss patients requiring hospitalisation. Furthermore, outcomes 30 days after onset of symptoms and after hospital discharge have not been described. AIMS To describe the clinical characteristics, outcomes 30 days after onset of symptoms and in-hospital mortality of a cohort of patients hospitalised for COVID-19 in a Swiss area. METHODS In this retrospective cohort study, we included all inpatients hospitalised with microbiologically confirmed COVID-19 between 1 March and 12 April 2020 in the public hospital network of a Swiss area (Fribourg). Demographic data, comorbidities and outcomes were recorded. Rate of potential hospital-acquired infection, outcomes 30 days after onset of symptoms and in-hospital mortality are reported. RESULTS One hundred ninety-six patients were included in the study. In our population, 119 (61%) were male and the median age was 70 years. Forty-nine patients (25%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). The rate of potential hospital-acquired infection was 7%. Overall, 30 days after onset of symptoms 117 patients (60%) had returned home, 23 patients (12%) were in a rehabilitation facility, 18 patients (9%) in a medical ward, 6 patients (3%) in ICU and 32 (16%) patients had died. Among patients who returned home within 30 days, 73 patients (63%) reported persistent symptoms. The overall in-hospital mortality was 17%. CONCLUSION We report the first cohort of Swiss patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Thirty days after onset of the symptoms, 60% had returned home. Among them, 63% still presented symptoms. Studies with longer follow-up are needed to document long-term outcomes in patients hospitalised with COVID-19.

negative: Biological and Epidemiological Trends in the Prevalence and Mortality due to Outbreaks of Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 Abstract The novel coronavirus (Covid-19) infection outbreak has posed a major threat to international health system and economy. This study is aimed at investigating the biological and epidemiological trends in the prevalence and mortality due to outbreaks of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections. The data on the global outbreak of COVID-19, were obtained from World Health Organization (WHO), Worldometer, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and research institutes. The information was also recorded from research documents published in global scientific journals indexed in Pub Med and Institute of Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science on the trends in the prevalence and mortality due to COVID-19 infection outbreaks. The results show rising trends in the transmission, prevalence and mortality rate due to coronavirus COVID-19. During the period of December 29, 2019 through March 31, 2020, it has infected 750890 people worldwide, resulting in 36405 deaths with a mortality rate of 4.84%. The infections were more frequent among male gender with above 60 years of age. The mean growth rate index for total number of cases from January 23 to March 31, 2020 was 1.20 and growth rate index for mortality rate was 1.12. There was a positive association between the prevalence and mortality rate (R2=0.996). The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is highly contagious and has affected a large number of people worldwide. It is still spreading with mutable prevalence and mortality outbreak trends. The global health officials have taken priority measures to prevent the further outbreaks of this emerging pathogen across the globe. However, the rising number of cases and mortality risk estimates are demonstrating that enhanced public health mediations, good hygienic conditions, social distancing and movement limitations may control the COVID-19 epidemics.

negative: Mental Health Services in Lombardy during COVID-19 outbreak Abstract Lombardy is the Region in Italy the most heavily affected by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) contagion. The Regional Health Authority mandates that mental health services should be guaranteed, identifying mental health as a priority for their citizens. Recommendations for occupational and health safety have been provided to patients and hospital staff, including support for telemedicine activities and remote psychosocial interventions. Services of the Mental Health Departments of Milano “Niguarda” and Brescia “Spedali Civili” Hospitals are providing continued care at a community, residential and hospital level, and to positive COVID-19 psychiatric patients in need of hospitalization.

negative: Monitoring Influenza Epidemics in China with Search Query from Baidu Several approaches have been proposed for near real-time detection and prediction of the spread of influenza. These include search query data for influenza-related terms, which has been explored as a tool for augmenting traditional surveillance methods. In this paper, we present a method that uses Internet search query data from Baidu to model and monitor influenza activity in China. The objectives of the study are to present a comprehensive technique for: (i) keyword selection, (ii) keyword filtering, (iii) index composition and (iv) modeling and detection of influenza activity in China. Sequential time-series for the selected composite keyword index is significantly correlated with Chinese influenza case data. In addition, one-month ahead prediction of influenza cases for the first eight months of 2012 has a mean absolute percent error less than 11%. To our knowledge, this is the first study on the use of search query data from Baidu in conjunction with this approach for estimation of influenza activity in China.

negative: Understanding the September asthma epidemic The highly predictable increase in emergency department visits, hospital admissions, and unscheduled physician consultations for childhood asthma in North America every September is uniquely related to school return. Rhinovirus infection is likely the major trigger, initially affecting asthma in school-age children, followed by similar but lesser increases in asthma morbidity in younger children and in adults. Low use of asthma medications during summer may fuel the epidemic, which may be attenuated by the short-term addition of an effective controller therapy.

negative: Nowcasting and Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 and Healthcare Demand In Turkey, A Modelling Study Abstract Background: A new type of coronavirus (later named Sars-Cov-2) drew attention on 31 December 2019 after the reporting of 27 unidentified pneumonia cases detected in Wuhan, China to the World Health Organization (WHO). Rapid progression of the COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the necessity of epidemic modeling studies to evaluate the course of the epidemic and its burden on the health system. This study aims to estimate the total number of infected people, evaluate the consequences of social interventions on the healthcare system and predict the expected number of cases, intensive care needs, hospitalizations and mortality rates in Turkey according to possible scenarios via the SEIR-based epidemic modeling method. Methods: This study was carried out in three dimensions. In the first, the actual number of people infected in the community has been estimated using the number of deaths in Turkey. In the second, the expected total numbers of infected people, total deaths, total hospitalizations, and intensive care unit (ICU) bed needs have been predicted in case of no intervention. In third, the distribution of the expected number of infected people and deaths, ICU and non-ICU bed needs over time has predicted based on SEIR modeling. A simulator (TURKSAS) has been developed and predictions made in 4 scenarios for Turkey. Results: According to deaths, the estimated number of infected people in Turkey on March 21 was 123,030. In the case of no intervention (1st scenario), the expected total number of infected people is 72,091,595, the total number of deaths is 445,956, the attack rate is 88.1%, the mortality ratio is 0.54%. The ICU bed capacity in Turkey is expected to exceed 4.4-fold and non-ICU bed capacity exceeds 3.21-fold. In 2nd and 3rd scenarios according to the calculations made by considering the social compliance rates of the NPIs, the value of R0 is estimated to decrease from 3 to 1.38 level. Compliance with NPIs makes a 94,303 difference in the expected number of deaths. In both scenarios, the predicted peak value of occupied ICU and non-ICU beds remains below Turkey healthcare capacity. While this study conducted, curfew for >65 and <20 age groups were in force in Turkey. If the curfew is declared for the 21-64 age population (4th scenario), the R0 value drops below 1 (0.98), the expected deaths are 14,230 and the peak values of daily ICU and non-ICU bed demand are below the healthcare capacity. Discussion: Modeling epidemics with assumptions supported by scientific literature and establishing decision support systems based on objective criteria is an important requirement. According to scientific data for the population of Turkey, the situation is not expected to be of worse than predictions presented in the second dimension. Predictions show that 16 million people can be prevented from being infected and 100,000 deaths can be prevented by full compliance with the measures taken. Complete control of the pandemic is possible by keeping R0 below 1. For this, additional evidence-based measures are needed.

negative: 2018 ACCP Global Conference on Clinical Pharmacy: October 20–23, 2018

negative: OpenSAFELY: factors associated with COVID-19-related hospital death in the linked electronic health records of 17 million adult NHS patients. Background Establishing who is at risk from a novel rapidly arising cause of death, and why, requires a new approach to epidemiological research with very large datasets and timely data. Working on behalf of NHS England we therefore set out to deliver a secure and pseudonymised analytics platform inside the data centre of a major primary care electronic health records vendor establishing coverage across detailed primary care records for a substantial proportion of all patients in England. The following results are preliminary. Data sources Primary care electronic health records managed by the electronic health record vendor TPP, pseudonymously linked to patient-level data from the COVID-19 Patient Notification System (CPNS) for death of hospital inpatients with confirmed COVID-19, using the new OpenSAFELY platform. Population 17,425,445 adults. Time period 1st Feb 2020 to 25th April 2020. Primary outcome Death in hospital among people with confirmed COVID-19. Methods Cohort study analysed by Cox-regression to generate hazard ratios: age and sex adjusted, and multiply adjusted for co-variates selected prospectively on the basis of clinical interest and prior findings. Results There were 5683 deaths attributed to COVID-19. In summary after full adjustment, death from COVID-19 was strongly associated with: being male (hazard ratio 1.99, 95%CI 1.88-2.10); older age and deprivation (both with a strong gradient); uncontrolled diabetes (HR 2.36 95% CI 2.18-2.56); severe asthma (HR 1.25 CI 1.08-1.44); and various other prior medical conditions. Compared to people with ethnicity recorded as white, black people were at higher risk of death, with only partial attenuation in hazard ratios from the fully adjusted model (age-sex adjusted HR 2.17 95% CI 1.84-2.57; fully adjusted HR 1.71 95% CI 1.44-2.02); with similar findings for Asian people (age-sex adjusted HR 1.95 95% CI 1.73-2.18; fully adjusted HR 1.62 95% CI 1.43-1.82). Conclusions We have quantified a range of clinical risk factors for death from COVID-19, some of which were not previously well characterised, in the largest cohort study conducted by any country to date. People from Asian and black groups are at markedly increased risk of in-hospital death from COVID-19, and contrary to some prior speculation this is only partially attributable to pre-existing clinical risk factors or deprivation; further research into the drivers of this association is therefore urgently required. Deprivation is also a major risk factor with, again, little of the excess risk explained by co-morbidity or other risk factors. The findings for clinical risk factors are concordant with policies in the UK for protecting those at highest risk. Our OpenSAFELY platform is rapidly adding further NHS patients' records; we will update and extend these results regularly. Keywords COVID-19, risk factors, ethnicity, deprivation, death, informatics.

negative: Acute Kidney Injury in Critically Ill Patients Infected With 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1): Report From a Canadian Province Background 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) has led to a global increase in severe respiratory illness. Little is known about kidney outcomes and dialytic requirements in critically ill patients infected with pandemic H1N1. Study Design Prospective observational study. Setting & Participants 50 patients with pandemic H1N1 admitted to any of 7 intensive care units in Manitoba, Canada, were prospectively followed. Outcome & Measurements Outcomes were kidney injury and kidney failure defined using RIFLE (risk, injury, failure, loss, end-stage disease) criteria or need for dialysis therapy. Results The pandemic H1N1 group was composed of 50 critically ill patients with pandemic H1N1 with severe respiratory syndrome (47 confirmed cases, 3 probable). Kidney injury, kidney failure, and need for dialysis occurred in 66.7%, 66%, and 11% of patients, respectively. Mortality was 16%. Kidney failure was associated with increased death (OR, 11.29; 95% CI, 1.29-98.9), whereas the need for dialysis was associated with an increase in length of stay (RR, 2.38; 95% CI, 2.13-25.75). Limitations Small population studied from single Canadian province; thus, limited generalizability. Conclusions In critically ill patients with pandemic H1N1, kidney injury, kidney failure, and the need for dialysis are common and associated with an increase in mortality and length of intensive care unit stay.

negative: First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast Background: The first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people after China. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 26 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions. Results: We reported the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases, and the cumulative distribution of confirmed cases, of patients quarantined at home (42%), hospitalized in non-intensive care (31%), recovered or discharged (13%), deceased (10%), and hospitalized in intensive care (4%). The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 115,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic not less than 2 months. Conclusions: Once month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.

negative: Management of COVID-19 in patients after liver transplantation: Beijing working party for liver transplantation Annually, around 850 liver transplantation is performed in Beijing, China. Recently, the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) caused by 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has affected nearly 200 countries worldwide. 2019-nCov can cause severe lung disease, multiple-organ damage, and significant mortalities. Liver transplant recipients, because of long-term oral immunosuppressant effects, may be more susceptible to 2019-nCoV infection and have a worse prognosis than the general population. It is urgent to set up guidelines for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of COVID-19 in liver transplant recipients. In this article, we reviewed the clinical aspects of 2019-nCoV infection, characteristics of liver transplant recipients, immunosuppressant usage, and potential drug interactions to provide recommendations to clinical staff managing liver transplant recipients during the COVID-19 epidemic.

negative: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): The need to maintain regular physical activity while taking precautions

negative: New coronavirus threat galvanizes scientists.

negative: The preventive strategy for pandemics in the elderly is to collect in advance samples & data to counteract chronic inflammation (inflammaging) Fighting the current COVID-19 pandemic, we must not forget to prepare for the next. Since elderly and frail people are at high risk, we wish to predict their vulnerability, and intervene if possible. For example, it would take little effort to take additional swabs or dried blood spots. Such minimally-invasive sampling, exemplified here during screening for potential COVID-19 infection, can yield the data to discover biomarkers to better handle this and the next respiratory disease pandemic. Longitudinal outcome data can then be combined with other epidemics and old-age health data, to discover the best biomarkers to predict (i) coping with infection & inflammation and thus hospitalization or intensive care, (ii) long-term health challenges, e.g. deterioration of lung function after intensive care, and (iii) treatment & vaccination response. Further, there are universal triggers of old-age morbidity & mortality, and the elimination of senescent cells improved health in pilot studies in idiopathic lung fibrosis & osteoarthritis patients alike. Biomarker studies are needed to test the hypothesis that resilience of the elderly during a pandemic can be improved by countering chronic inflammation and/or removing senescent cells. Our review suggests that more samples should be taken and saved systematically, following minimum standards, and data be made available, to maximize healthspan & minimize frailty, leading to savings in health care, gains in quality of life, and preparing us better for the next pandemic, all at the same time.

negative: Connecting the Dots of COVID-19 Transmissions in India Witnessing its first case in late January 2020 India has seen a sharp rise in the number of positive cases of COVID-19. 34 States/UT (s) of the country have been found to be affected by the pandemic to date. We in this work, study the progress of COVID-19 pandemic in India. We aim to create transmission network visualization (s) of COVID-19 in India and perform analysis upon them. Using the transmission networks obtained we attempt to find the possible Super Spreader Individual (s) and Super Spreader Events (SSE) responsible for the outbreak in their respective regions. We discuss the potentials of network analysis in mitigating the further spread of the disease. This is one of the initial studies of the outbreak in India and the first attempt to study the pandemic in the country from a transmission network perspective.

negative: Factors influencing preventive behavior against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus among nursing students in South Korea() BACKGROUND: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), an emerging infectious disease introduced in South Korea in 2015, spreads quickly through hospitals, and Korea became one of the major areas affected by the disease after the Middle East region. To stop the spread of an emerging disease, it is important to practice prevention guidelines correctly. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate factors influencing preventive behavior against MERS-CoV among Korean nursing students. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study using a questionnaire survey. Data were collected from 429 nursing students from three colleges of nursing in Korea from June 25 to July 3 in 2015. RESULTS: Preventive behavior against MERS-CoV was affected mostly by attitude (β = .243, p < .001). Such behavior was also high in relation to the variables of perceived risk (β = .232, p < .001), older students (β = .202, p < .001), knowledge level (β = .153, p < .01), and female respondents (β = .115, p < .05). CONCLUSION: Preventive behavior against emerging infectious diseases such as MERS-CoV was found to be affected most significantly by attitude and risk perception. It is crucial to provide nursing students with information or knowledge, but it is also important to help those in nursing education recognize that active preventive behavior can prevent this infectious disease and stop its spread.

negative: New insights on the antiviral effects of chloroquine against coronavirus: what to expect for COVID-19? ABSTRACT Recently, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), officially known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged in China. Despite drastic containment measures, the spread of this virus is ongoing. SARS-CoV-2 is the aetiological agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) characterised by pulmonary infection in humans. The efforts of international health authorities have since focused on rapid diagnosis and isolation of patients as well as the search for therapies able to counter the most severe effects of the disease. In the absence of a known efficient therapy and because of the situation of a public-health emergency, it made sense to investigate the possible effect of chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine against SARS-CoV-2 since this molecule was previously described as a potent inhibitor of most coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-1. Preliminary trials of chloroquine repurposing in the treatment of COVID-19 in China have been encouraging, leading to several new trials. Here we discuss the possible mechanisms of chloroquine interference with the SARS-CoV-2 replication cycle.

negative: Investigation of a nosocomial outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Toronto, Canada. BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was introduced into Canada by a visitor to Hong Kong who returned to Toronto on Feb. 23, 2003. Transmission to a family member who was later admitted to a community hospital in Toronto led to a large nosocomial outbreak. In this report we summarize the preliminary results of the epidemiological investigation into the transmission of SARS between 128 cases associated with this hospital outbreak. METHODS We collected epidemiologic data on 128 probable and suspect cases of SARS associated with the hospital outbreak, including those who became infected in hospital and the next generation of illness arising among their contacts. Incubation periods were calculated based on cases with a single known exposure. Transmission chains from the index family to hospital contacts and within the hospital were mapped. Attack rates were calculated for nurses in 3 hospital wards where transmission occurred. RESULTS The cases ranged in age from 21 months to 86 years; 60.2% were female. Seventeen deaths were reported (case-fatality rate 13.3%). Of the identified cases, 36.7% were hospital staff. Other cases were household or social contacts of SARS cases (29.6%), hospital patients (14.1%), visitors (14.1%) or other health care workers (5.5%). Of the 128 cases, 120 (93.8%) had documented contact with a SARS case or with a ward where there was a known SARS case. The remaining 8 cases without documented exposure are believed to have had exposure to an unidentified case and remain under investigation. The attack rates among nurses who worked in the emergency department, intensive care unit and coronary care unit ranged from 10.3% to 60.0%. Based on 42 of the 128 cases with a single known contact with a SARS case, the mean incubation period was 5 days (range 2 to 10 days). INTERPRETATION Evidence to date suggests that SARS is a severe respiratory illness spread mainly by respiratory droplets. There has been no evidence of further transmission within the hospital after the elapse of 2 full incubation periods (20 days).

negative: Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 - COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1-30, 2020. Since SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first detected in December 2019 (1), approximately 1.3 million cases have been reported worldwide (2), including approximately 330,000 in the United States (3). To conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in the United States, the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) was created using the existing infrastructure of the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) (4) and the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RSV-NET). This report presents age-stratified COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates for patients admitted during March 1-28, 2020, and clinical data on patients admitted during March 1-30, 2020, the first month of U.S. surveillance. Among 1,482 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 74.5% were aged ≥50 years, and 54.4% were male. The hospitalization rate among patients identified through COVID-NET during this 4-week period was 4.6 per 100,000 population. Rates were highest (13.8) among adults aged ≥65 years. Among 178 (12%) adult patients with data on underlying conditions as of March 30, 2020, 89.3% had one or more underlying conditions; the most common were hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes mellitus (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%). These findings suggest that older adults have elevated rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalization and the majority of persons hospitalized with COVID-19 have underlying medical conditions. These findings underscore the importance of preventive measures (e.g., social distancing, respiratory hygiene, and wearing face coverings in public settings where social distancing measures are difficult to maintain)† to protect older adults and persons with underlying medical conditions, as well as the general public. In addition, older adults and persons with serious underlying medical conditions should avoid contact with persons who are ill and immediately contact their health care provider(s) if they have symptoms consistent with COVID-19 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html) (5). Ongoing monitoring of hospitalization rates, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of hospitalized patients will be important to better understand the evolving epidemiology of COVID-19 in the United States and the clinical spectrum of disease, and to help guide planning and prioritization of health care system resources.

negative: Network structure of COVID-19 spread and the lacuna in India's testing strategy We characterize the network of COVID-19 spread in India and find that the transmission rate is 0.43, with daily case growth driven by individuals who contracted the virus abroad. We explore the question of whether this represents exponentially decaying dynamics or is simply an artefact of India's testing strategy. Testing has largely been limited to individuals travelling from high-risk countries and their immediate contacts, meaning that the network reflects positive identifications from a biased testing sample. Given generally low levels of testing and an almost complete absence of testing for community spread, there is significant risk that we may be missing out on the actual nature of outbreak. India still has an apparently low current caseload, with possibly a small window of time to act, and should therefore aggressively and systematically expand random testing for community spread, including for asymptomatic cases. This will help understand true transmission characteristics and plan appropriately for the immediate future.

negative: Highly infectious diseases in the Mediterranean Sea area: Inventory of isolation capabilities and recommendations for appropriate isolation Epidemics such as viral haemorrhagic fevers, severe acute respiratory syndrome, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus or yet unknown ones have few chances of disappearing. Globalization, worldwide travel, climate change, social conflicts and wars, among others, are likely to favor the emergence of epidemics. Preparedness of hospitals to prevent the spread of these outbreaks is among the prioritized political programmes of many countries. The EuroNHID network has in the past drawn a map of features and equipment of hospitals across Europe to take care of highly contagious patients. We update the data regarding isolation capabilities and recommendations, with an emphasis on Mediterranean countries.

negative: Fighting against the common enemy of COVID-19: a practice of building a community with a shared future for mankind The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused more than 80 813 confirmed cases in all provinces of China, and 21 110 cases reported in 93 countries of six continents as of 7 March 2020 since middle December 2019. Due to biological nature of the novel coronavirus, named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with faster spreading and unknown transmission pattern, it makes us in a difficulty position to contain the disease transmission globally. To date, we have found it is one of the greatest challenges to human beings in fighting against COVID-19 in the history, because SARS-CoV-2 is different from SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in terms of biological features and transmissibility, and also found the containment strategies including the non-pharmaceutical public health measures implemented in China are effective and successful. In order to prevent a potential pandemic-level outbreak of COVID-19, we, as a community of shared future for mankind, recommend for all international leaders to support preparedness in low and middle income countries especially, take strong global interventions by using old approaches or new tools, mobilize global resources to equip hospital facilities and supplies to protect noisome infections and to provide personal protective tools such as facemask to general population, and quickly initiate research projects on drug and vaccine development. We also recommend for the international community to develop better coordination, cooperation, and strong solidarity in the joint efforts of fighting against COVID-19 spreading recommended by the joint mission report of the WHO-China experts, against violating the International Health Regulation (WHO, 2005), and against stigmatization, in order to eventually win the battle against our common enemy — COVID-19.

negative: COVID-19 outbreak: current scenario of Pakistan COVID-19 outbreak was first time experienced in the Wuhan City of China at the end of December 2019. Which spread rapidly in China and then worldwide in 209 countries of America, Europe, Australia and Asia including Pakistan. There are more than fifty thousand mortalities and one million plus people have been affected worldwide, while figure increases rapidly. Different steps have been taken worldwide for the control of COVID-19. Even with less resources Pakistan also taken rigorous measures like designed special hospitals, Laboratories for testing, quarantine facilities, awareness campaign and lock down to control the spread of virus. We highlighted the efforts of government to combat this deadly pneumonia.

negative: Preparing for COVID-19: early experience from an intensive care unit in Singapore

negative: A Nationwide Survey of UK cardiac surgeons view on clinical decision making during the COVID-19 pandemic Background: No firm recommendations are currently available to guide decision making for patients requiring cardiac surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Systematic appraisal of national expert consensus can be used to generate interim recommendations until data from clinical observations will become available. Hence, we aimed to collect and quantitatively appraise nationwide UK senior surgeons opinion on clinical decision making for patients requiring cardiac surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We mailed a web-based questionnaire to all consultant cardiac surgeons through the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland (SCTS) mailing list on the 17th April 2020 and we pre-determined to close the survey on the 21st April 2020. This survey was primarily designed to gather information on UK surgeons opinion using 12 items. Strong consensus was predefined as an opinion shared by at least 60% of responding consultants. Results: A total of 86 consultant surgeons undertook the survey. All UK cardiac units were represented by at least one consultant. Strong consensus was achieved for the following key questions:1) before hospital admission every patient should receive nasopharyngeal swab, PCR and chest CT; 2) the use of full PPE should to be adopted in every case by the theatre team regardless patients COVID-19 status; 3) the risk of COVID-19 exposure for patients undergoing heart surgery should be considered moderate to high and likely to increase mortality if it occurs; 4) cardiac procedure should be decided based on ad-hoc multidisciplinary team discussion for every patient. The majority believed that both aortic and mitral surgery should be considered in selected cases. The role of CABG surgery during the pandemic was more controversial. Conclusions: In the current unprecedented scenario, the present survey provides information for generating interim recommendations until data from clinical observations will become available.

negative: Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study Summary Background An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia associated with the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in December, 2019, in Wuhan, China. Information about critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection is scarce. We aimed to describe the clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia. Methods In this single-centered, retrospective, observational study, we enrolled 52 critically ill adult patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) of Wuhan Jin Yin-tan hospital (Wuhan, China) between late December, 2019, and Jan 26, 2020. Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected. Data were compared between survivors and non-survivors. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, as of Feb 9, 2020. Secondary outcomes included incidence of SARS-CoV-2-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and the proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Findings Of 710 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia, 52 critically ill adult patients were included. The mean age of the 52 patients was 59·7 (SD 13·3) years, 35 (67%) were men, 21 (40%) had chronic illness, 51 (98%) had fever. 32 (61·5%) patients had died at 28 days, and the median duration from admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) to death was 7 (IQR 3–11) days for non-survivors. Compared with survivors, non-survivors were older (64·6 years [11·2] vs 51·9 years [12·9]), more likely to develop ARDS (26 [81%] patients vs 9 [45%] patients), and more likely to receive mechanical ventilation (30 [94%] patients vs 7 [35%] patients), either invasively or non-invasively. Most patients had organ function damage, including 35 (67%) with ARDS, 15 (29%) with acute kidney injury, 12 (23%) with cardiac injury, 15 (29%) with liver dysfunction, and one (2%) with pneumothorax. 37 (71%) patients required mechanical ventilation. Hospital-acquired infection occurred in seven (13·5%) patients. Interpretation The mortality of critically ill patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia is considerable. The survival time of the non-survivors is likely to be within 1–2 weeks after ICU admission. Older patients (>65 years) with comorbidities and ARDS are at increased risk of death. The severity of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia poses great strain on critical care resources in hospitals, especially if they are not adequately staffed or resourced. Funding None.

negative: Comparative full-length genome sequence analysis of 14 SARS coronavirus isolates and common mutations associated with putative origins of infection Summary Background The cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been identified as a new coronavirus. Whole genome sequence analysis of various isolates might provide an indication of potential strain differences of this new virus. Moreover, mutation analysis will help to develop effective vaccines. Methods We sequenced the entire SARS viral genome of cultured isolates from the index case (SIN2500) presenting in Singapore, from three primary contacts (SIN2774, SIN2748, and SIN2677), and one secondary contact (SIN2679). These sequences were compared with the isolates from Canada (TOR2), Hong Kong (CUHK-W1 and HKU39849), Hanoi (URBANI), Guangzhou (GZ01), and Beijing (BJ01, BJ02, BJ03, BJ04). Findings We identified 129 sequence variations among the 14 isolates, with 16 recurrent variant sequences. Common variant sequences at four loci define two distinct genotypes of the SARS virus. One genotype was linked with infections originating in Hotel M in Hong Kong, the second contained isolates from Hong Kong, Guangzhou, and Beijing with no association with Hotel M (p<0.0001). Moreover, other common sequence variants further distinguished the geographical origins of the isolates, especially between Singapore and Beijing. Interpretation Despite the recent onset of the SARS epidemic, genetic signatures are emerging that partition the worldwide SARS viral isolates into groups on the basis of contact source history and geography. These signatures can be used to trace sources of infection. In addition, a common variant associated with a non-conservative aminoacid change in the S1 region of the spike protein, suggests that immunological pressures might be starting to influence the evolution of the SARS virus in human populations. Published online May 9, 2003 http://image.thelancet.com/extras/03art4454web.pdf

negative: A Hospital Partnership with a Nursing Home Experiencing a COVID‐19 Outbreak: Description of a Multi‐Phase Emergency Response in Toronto, Canada Nursing homes have become “ground zero” for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) epidemic in North America, with homes experiencing widespread outbreaks resulting in severe morbidity and mortality among its residents. This manuscript describes a 371‐bed acute care hospital's emergency response to a 126‐bed nursing home experiencing a COVID‐19 outbreak in Toronto, Canada. Like other health care system responses to COVID‐19 outbreaks in nursing homes, this hospital‐nursing home partnership can be characterized in several phases: 1) engagement, relationship and trust‐building; 2) environmental scan, team‐building and immediate response; 3) early phase response; and 4) stabilization and transition period. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) causes transient lower respiratory tract infection in rhesus macaques. In 2012, a novel betacoronavirus, designated Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus or MERS-CoV and associated with severe respiratory disease in humans, emerged in the Arabian Peninsula. To date, 108 human cases have been reported, including cases of human-to-human transmission. The availability of an animal disease model is essential for understanding pathogenesis and developing effective countermeasures. Upon a combination of intratracheal, ocular, oral, and intranasal inoculation with 7 × 10(6) 50% tissue culture infectious dose of the MERS-CoV isolate HCoV-EMC/2012, rhesus macaques developed a transient lower respiratory tract infection. Clinical signs, virus shedding, virus replication in respiratory tissues, gene expression, and cytokine and chemokine profiles peaked early in infection and decreased over time. MERS-CoV caused a multifocal, mild to marked interstitial pneumonia, with virus replication occurring mainly in alveolar pneumocytes. This tropism of MERS-CoV for the lower respiratory tract may explain the severity of the disease observed in humans and the, up to now, limited human-to-human transmission.

negative: Risks of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Pregnancy; a Narrative Review INTRODUCTION: The outbreak of the new Coronavirus in China in December 2019 and subsequently in various countries around the world has raised concerns about the possibility of vertical transmission of the virus from mother to fetus. The present study aimed to review published literature in this regard. METHODS: In this narrative review, were searched for all articles published in various databases including PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Science Direct, and Web of Science using MeSH-compliant keywords including COVID-19, Pregnancy, Vertical transmission, Coronavirus 2019, SARS-CoV-2 and 2019-nCoV from December 2019 to March 18, 2020 and reviewed them. All type of articles published about COVID-19 and vertical transmission in pregnancy were included. RESULTS: A review of 13 final articles published in this area revealed that COVID-19 can cause fetal distress, miscarriage, respiratory distress and preterm delivery in pregnant women but does not infect newborns. There has been no report of vertical transmission in pregnancy, and it has been found that clinical symptoms of COVID-19 in pregnant women are not different from those of non-pregnant women. CONCLUSION: Overall, due to lack of appropriate data about the effect of COVID-19 on pregnancy, it is necessary to monitor suspected pregnant women before and after delivery. For confirmed cases both the mother and the newborn child should be followed up comprehensively.

negative: Policies on the use of respiratory protection for hospital health workers to protect from coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome–associated Coronavirus in Lung Tissue Efforts to contain severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) have been limited by the lack of a standardized, sensitive, and specific test for SARS-associated coronavirus (CoV). We used a standardized reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction assay to detect SARS-CoV in lung samples obtained from well-characterized patients who died of SARS and from those who died of other reasons. SARS-CoV was detected in all 22 postmortem lung tissues (to 10(9) viral copies/g) from 11 patients with probable SARS but was not detected in any of the 23 lung control samples (sample analysis was blinded). The sensitivity and specificity (95% confidence interval) were 100% (84.6% to 100%) and 100% (85.1% to 100%), respectively. Viral loads were significantly associated with a shorter course of illness but not with the use of ribavirin or steroids. CoV was consistently identified in the lungs of all patients who died of SARS but not in control patients, supporting a primary role for CoV in deaths.

negative: NSAIDs in patients with viral infections, including Covid-19: victims or perpetrators? Abstract Taking anti-inflammatory drugs, including non-steroidal (NSAIDs), during Covid-19 infection, how much is risky? The French Minister of Health, who has raised an alarm on a possible risk deriving from the use of ibuprofen for the control of fever and other symptoms during the disease, opened the debate a few days ago. In this paper we examine available evidence from preclinical and clinical studies that had analysed the role of COX in the inflammatory process and the effects of NSAIDs in patients with infections. Most of the published studies that suggested not protective effects of NSAIDs were mainly performed in vitro or on animals. Therefore, their meaning in humans is to be considered with great caution. Based also on data suggesting protective effects of NSAIDs, we concluded that currently there is no evidence suggesting a correlation between NSAIDs and a worsening of infections. Further studies will be certainly needed to better define the role of NSAIDs and particularly COX2 inhibitors in patients with infections. In the meantime, we must wait for results of the revision started by the PRAC on May 2019 on the association ibuprofen/ketoprofen and worsening of infections. Since nowadays no scientific evidence establishes a correlation between NSAIDS and worsening of COVID-19, patients should be advice against any NSAIDs self-medication when COVID-19 like symptoms are present.

negative: Special Article: Risk Communication During COVID-19 Abstract: During the unprecedented times caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19, there is rapidly evolving information and guidance. However, a focus must also be on proper and effective risk communication. This is especially the case during pandemics that have high rates of infection, significant morbidity, lack of therapeutic measures, and rapid increases in cases, all of which apply to the current COVID-19 pandemic. A consequence of poor risk communication and heightened risk perception is hoarding behavior, which can lead to lack of medications and personal protective equipment. One potential way to ensure appropriate risk communication is utilizing social media channels, and ensuring an ongoing consistent media presence. Another important step is to include all stakeholders including members of the allergy community in broader public health messaging. As we continue to face unprecedented times in the allergy community, an understanding and appreciation of risk communication will be essential as we communicate with, and inform, our patients, and our colleagues, moving forward.

negative: Inactivation and stability of viral diagnostic reagents treated by gamma radiation Abstract The objective of this study was to apply the pertinent findings from gamma inactivation of virus infectivity to the production of high quality diagnostic reagents. A Gammacell 220 (Atomic Energy of Canada, Ltd., Ottawa, Canada § § Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by the Public Health Service or by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. ) was used to subject 38 viruses grown in either susceptible tissue cultures or embryonated chicken eggs to various doses of gamma radiation from a cobalt-60 source. The radiation required to reduce viral infectivity was 0·42 to 3·7 megarads (Mrad). The effect of gamma treatment on the antigenic reactivity of reagents for the complement fixation (CF), hemagglutination (HA) and neuraminadase assays was determined. Influenza antigens inactivated with 1·7 Mrad displayed comparable potency, sensitivity, specificity and stability to those inactivated by standard procedures with beta-propiolactone (BPL). Significant inactivation of influenza N1 and B neuraminidase occurred with >2·4 Mrad radiation at temperatures above 4°C. All 38 viruses were inactivated, and CF or HA antigens were prepared successfully. Antigenic potency remained stable with all antigens for 3 years and with 83% after 5 years storage. Influenza HA antigens evaluated after 9 years of storage demonstrated 86% stability. Gamma radiation is safer than chemical inactivation procedures and is a reliable and effective replacement for BPL in preparing diagnostic reagents.

negative: Presentation and outcome of Middle East respiratory syndrome in Saudi intensive care unit patients BACKGROUND: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection is associated with high mortality rates but limited clinical data have been reported. We describe the clinical features and outcomes of patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of data from all adult (>18 years old) patients admitted to our 20-bed mixed ICU with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection between October 1, 2012 and May 31, 2014. Diagnosis was confirmed in all patients using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction on respiratory samples. RESULTS: During the observation period, 31 patients were admitted with MERS-CoV infection (mean age 59 ± 20 years, 22 [71 %] males). Cough and tachypnea were reported in all patients; 22 (77.4 %) patients had bilateral pulmonary infiltrates. Invasive mechanical ventilation was applied in 27 (87.1 %) and vasopressor therapy in 25 (80.6 %) patients during the intensive care unit stay. Twenty-three (74.2 %) patients died in the ICU. Nonsurvivors were older, had greater APACHE II and SOFA scores on admission, and were more likely to have received invasive mechanical ventilation and vasopressor therapy. After adjustment for the severity of illness and the degree of organ dysfunction, the need for vasopressors was an independent risk factor for death in the ICU (odds ratio = 18.33, 95 % confidence interval: 1.11–302.1, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV infection requiring admission to the ICU is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The need for vasopressor therapy is the main risk factor for death in these patients. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-016-1303-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Clinical and epidemiological features of 36 children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Zhejiang, China: an observational cohort study Summary Background Since December, 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally. Little is known about the epidemiological and clinical features of paediatric patients with COVID-19. Methods We retrospectively retrieved data for paediatric patients (aged 0–16 years) with confirmed COVID-19 from electronic medical records in three hospitals in Zhejiang, China. We recorded patients' epidemiological and clinical features. Findings From Jan 17 to March 1, 2020, 36 children (mean age 8·3 [SD 3·5] years) were identified to be infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The route of transmission was by close contact with family members (32 [89%]) or a history of exposure to the epidemic area (12 [33%]); eight (22%) patients had both exposures. 19 (53%) patients had moderate clinical type with pneumonia; 17 (47%) had mild clinical type and either were asymptomatic (ten [28%]) or had acute upper respiratory symptoms (seven [19%]). Common symptoms on admission were fever (13 [36%]) and dry cough (seven [19%]). Of those with fever, four (11%) had a body temperature of 38·5°C or higher, and nine (25%) had a body temperature of 37·5–38·5°C. Typical abnormal laboratory findings were elevated creatine kinase MB (11 [31%]), decreased lymphocytes (11 [31%]), leucopenia (seven [19%]), and elevated procalcitonin (six [17%]). Besides radiographic presentations, variables that were associated significantly with severity of COVID-19 were decreased lymphocytes, elevated body temperature, and high levels of procalcitonin, D-dimer, and creatine kinase MB. All children received interferon alfa by aerosolisation twice a day, 14 (39%) received lopinavir–ritonavir syrup twice a day, and six (17%) needed oxygen inhalation. Mean time in hospital was 14 (SD 3) days. By Feb 28, 2020, all patients were cured. Interpretation Although all paediatric patients in our cohort had mild or moderate type of COVID-19, the large proportion of asymptomatic children indicates the difficulty in identifying paediatric patients who do not have clear epidemiological information, leading to a dangerous situation in community-acquired infections. Funding Ningbo Clinical Research Center for Children's Health and Diseases, Ningbo Reproductive Medicine Centre, and Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Projects of Wenzhou.

negative: Infection Control against COVID-19 in Departments of Radiology The COVID-19 epidemic, which is caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has spread rapidly to become a world-wide pandemic. Chest radiography and chest CT are frequently used to support the diagnosis of COVID-19 infection. However, multiple cases of COVID-19 transmission in radiology department have been reported. Here we summarize the lessons we learned and provide suggestions to improve the infection control and prevention practices of healthcare workers in departments of radiology.

negative: A MULTINATIONAL REPORT TO CHARACTERISE SARS-CoV-2 INFECTION IN PEOPLE WITH CYSTIC FIBROSIS Abstract Information is lacking on the clinical impact of the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 on people with cystic fibrosis (CF). Our aim was to characterize SARS-CoV-2 infection in people with cystic fibrosis. Methods: Anonymised data submitted by each participating country to their National CF Registry was reported using a standardised template, then collated and summarised. Results: 40 cases have been reported across 8 countries. Of the 40 cases, 31 (78%) were symptomatic for SARS-CoV-2 at presentation, with 24 (60%) having a fever. 70% have recovered, 30% remain unresolved at time of reporting, and no deaths have been submitted. Conclusions: This early report shows good recovery from SARS-CoV-2 in this heterogeneous CF cohort. The disease course does not seem to differ from the general population, but the current numbers are too small to draw firm conclusions and people with CF should continue to strictly follow public health advice to protect themselves from infection.

negative: Susceptibility of Pigs and Chickens to SARS Coronavirus An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in humans, associated with a new coronavirus, was reported in Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America in early 2003. To address speculations that the virus originated in domesticated animals, or that domestic species were susceptible to the virus, we inoculated 6-week-old pigs and chickens intravenously, intranasally, ocularly, and orally with 10(6) PFU of SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Clinical signs did not develop in any animal, nor were gross pathologic changes evident on postmortem examinations. Attempts at virus isolation were unsuccessful; however, viral RNA was detected by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction in blood of both species during the first week after inoculation, and in chicken organs at 2 weeks after inoculation. Virus-neutralizing antibodies developed in the pigs. Our results indicate that these animals do not play a role as amplifying hosts for SARS-CoV.

negative: COVID-19 in patients with thoracic malignancies (TERAVOLT): first results of an international, registry-based, cohort study BACKGROUND: Early reports on patients with cancer and COVID-19 have suggested a high mortality rate compared with the general population. Patients with thoracic malignancies are thought to be particularly susceptible to COVID-19 given their older age, smoking habits, and pre-existing cardiopulmonary comorbidities, in addition to cancer treatments. We aimed to study the effect of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection on patients with thoracic malignancies. METHODS: The Thoracic Cancers International COVID-19 Collaboration (TERAVOLT) registry is a multicentre observational study composed of a cross-sectional component and a longitudinal cohort component. Eligibility criteria were the presence of any thoracic cancer (non-small-cell lung cancer [NSCLC], small-cell lung cancer, mesothelioma, thymic epithelial tumours, and other pulmonary neuroendocrine neoplasms) and a COVID-19 diagnosis, either laboratory confirmed with RT-PCR, suspected with symptoms and contacts, or radiologically suspected cases with lung imaging features consistent with COVID-19 pneumonia and symptoms. Patients of any age, sex, histology, or stage were considered eligible, including those in active treatment and clinical follow-up. Clinical data were extracted from medical records of consecutive patients from Jan 1, 2020, and will be collected until the end of pandemic declared by WHO. Data on demographics, oncological history and comorbidities, COVID-19 diagnosis, and course of illness and clinical outcomes were collected. Associations between demographic or clinical characteristics and outcomes were measured with odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs using univariable and multivariable logistic regression, with sex, age, smoking status, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease included in multivariable analysis. This is a preliminary analysis of the first 200 patients. The registry continues to accept new sites and patient data. FINDINGS: Between March 26 and April 12, 2020, 200 patients with COVID-19 and thoracic cancers from eight countries were identified and included in the TERAVOLT registry; median age was 68·0 years (61·8–75·0) and the majority had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0–1 (142 [72%] of 196 patients), were current or former smokers (159 [81%] of 196), had non-small-cell lung cancer (151 [76%] of 200), and were on therapy at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis (147 [74%] of 199), with 112 (57%) of 197 on first-line treatment. 152 (76%) patients were hospitalised and 66 (33%) died. 13 (10%) of 134 patients who met criteria for ICU admission were admitted to ICU; the remaining 121 were hospitalised, but were not admitted to ICU. Univariable analyses revealed that being older than 65 years (OR 1·88, 95% 1·00–3·62), being a current or former smoker (4·24, 1·70–12·95), receiving treatment with chemotherapy alone (2·54, 1·09–6·11), and the presence of any comorbidities (2·65, 1·09–7·46) were associated with increased risk of death. However, in multivariable analysis, only smoking history (OR 3·18, 95% CI 1·11–9·06) was associated with increased risk of death. INTERPRETATION: With an ongoing global pandemic of COVID-19, our data suggest high mortality and low admission to intensive care in patients with thoracic cancer. Whether mortality could be reduced with treatment in intensive care remains to be determined. With improved cancer therapeutic options, access to intensive care should be discussed in a multidisciplinary setting based on cancer specific mortality and patients' preference. FUNDING: None.

negative: The impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020. In view of most recent information on testing activity, we present here an update of our initial work. In this work, mathematical models have been developed to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended here to account for undetected infections, as well as for stages of infections and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5, data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases and reduced contact to risk groups.

negative: Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies Background: Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. Methods: We present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020, on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. Findings: We find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures on 7th May can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Conclusions: Our work supports the decision to apply stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. We provide strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.

negative: Are high-performing health systems resilient against the COVID-19 epidemic?

negative: The Role of the Traveler in Emerging Infections and Magnitude of Travel Travel and trade have grown immensely. Travelers interact with people and microbes during their journeys, and can introduce infectious agents to new areas and populations. Studying illnesses in travelers is a source of knowledge into diseases of resource-poor regions and the control of these diseases. Travel-associated illnesses also serve to detect emerging infections.

negative: Clinical Characteristics and Outcome for Four SARS-CoV-2-infected Cancer Patients Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Preliminary data suggest that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with higher mortality among cancer patients, particularly in those on systemic therapy. It is unclear whether this applies to patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). In this case series, 74 patients from a single institution with genitourinary (GU) cancer on ICI were followed up during a 12-wk period. During this period, 11 patients (15%) developed symptoms consistent with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and four (5%) tested positive. Two patients had metastatic urothelial cancer (treated with atezolizumab) and two had metastatic renal cancer (treated with ipilimumab and nivolumab). All had additional risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality and two received steroids within 1 mo of infection. Two patients developed symptoms requiring hospitalisation. All four are alive 32-45 d after their first symptoms and 28-38 d after testing positive. These patients all had multiple risk factors associated with severe COVID-19. These data suggest that the higher risk of COVID-19 death associated with systemic therapy in cancer may not apply to patients on ICIs. Assessment of COVID-19 severity in these patients can be complicated by the underlying cancer and its treatment.

negative: Microbe Hunting in Laboratory Animal Research Recent advances in nucleic acid diagnostic technologies have revolutionized microbiology by facilitating rapid, sensitive pathogen surveillance and differential diagnosis of infectious diseases. With the expansion and dissemination of genomic sequencing technology scientists are discovering new microbes at an accelerating pace. In this article we review recent progress in the field of pathogen surveillance and discovery with a specific focus on applications in the field of laboratory animal research. We discuss the challenges in proving a causal relationship between the presence of a candidate organism and disease. We also discuss the strengths and limitations of various assay platforms and describe a staged strategy for viral diagnostics. To illustrate the complexity of pursuing pathogen discovery research, we include examples from our own work that are intended to provide insights into the process that led to the selection of particular strategies.

negative: The novel Chinese coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) infections: Challenges for fighting the storm Since end of December 2019, a cluster of patients with pneumonia of unknown origin was reported from Wuhan, Hubei province, China. They shared a connection with the Huanan South China Seafood Market in Wuhan, and now it has been confirmed that the disease is caused by a novel coronavirus (provisionally named 2019-nCoV). As of today (30 January 2020), 7734 cases have been confirmed in China, and 90 cases have also been cumulatively reported from Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Japan, Singapore, Republic of Korea, United Arab Emirate, United States, The Philippines, India, Australia, Canada, Finland, France, and Germany (Finland, France and Germany are the only European countries in which cases [n= 1, n = 5, and n = 4, respectively] have been reported up to date). According to the released news, the case rate fatality is 2.2% (170/7824).

negative: COVID-19 in Canada and the use of Personal Protective Equipment

negative: Epidemiological Characteristics of COVID-19: A Systemic Review and Meta-Analysis Background: Our understanding of the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to evolve. However, there are many unknowns about its epidemiology. Purpose: To synthesize the number of deaths from confirmed COVID-19 cases, incubation period, as well as time from onset of COVID-19 symptoms to first medical visit, ICU admission, recovery and death of COVID-19. Data Sources: MEDLINE, Embase, and Google Scholar from December 01, 2019 through to March 11, 2020 without language restrictions as well as bibliographies of relevant articles. Study Selection: Quantitative studies that recruited people living with or died due to COVID-19. Data Extraction: Two independent reviewers extracted the data. Conflicts were resolved through discussion with a senior author. Data Synthesis: Out of 1675 non-duplicate studies identified, 57 were included. Pooled mean incubation period was 5.84 (99% CI: 4.83, 6.85) days. Pooled mean number of days from the onset of COVID-19 symptoms to first clinical visit was 4.82 (95% CI: 3.48, 6.15), ICU admission was 10.48 (95% CI: 9.80, 11.16), recovery was 17.76 (95% CI: 12.64, 22.87), and until death was 15.93 (95% CI: 13.07, 18.79). Pooled probability of COVID-19-related death was 0.02 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.03). Limitations: Studies are observational and findings are mainly based on studies that recruited patient from clinics and hospitals and so may be biased toward more severe cases. Conclusion: We found that the incubation period and lag between the onset of symptoms and diagnosis of COVID-19 is longer than other respiratory viral infections including MERS and SARS; however, the current policy of 14 days of mandatory quarantine for everyone might be too conservative. Longer quarantine periods might be more justified for extreme cases.

negative: Should, and how can, exercise be done during a coronavirus outbreak? An interview with Dr. Jeffrey A. Woods

negative: COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care: computer simulation study Background Managing healthcare demand and capacity is especially difficult in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, where limited intensive care resources can be overwhelmed by a large number of cases requiring admission in a short space of time. If patients are unable to access this specialist resource, then death is a likely outcome. The aim of this study is to estimate the extent to which such capacity-dependent deaths can be mitigated through demand-side initiatives involving non-pharmaceutical interventions and supply-side measures to increase surge capacity or reduce length of stay. Methods A stochastic discrete event simulation model is developed to represent the key dynamics of the intensive care admissions process for COVID-19 patients. Model inputs are aligned to levers available to planners with key outputs including duration of time at maximum capacity (to inform workforce requirements), peak daily deaths (for mortuary planning), and total deaths (as an ultimate marker of intervention efficacy). The model - freely available - is applied to the COVID-19 response at a large hospital in England for which the effect of a number of possible interventions are simulated. Results Capacity-dependent deaths are closely associated with both the nature and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and availability of intensive care beds. For the hospital considered, results suggest that capacity-dependent deaths can be reduced five-fold through a combination of isolation policies, a doubling of bed capacity, and 25% reduced length of stay. Conclusions Without treatment or vaccination there is little that can be done to reduce deaths occurring when patients have otherwise been treated in the most appropriate hospital setting. Healthcare planners should therefore focus on minimising the capacity-dependent deaths that are within their influence.

negative: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic: An Overview of Systematic Reviews Background: Navigating the rapidly growing body of scientific literature on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is challenging and ongoing critical appraisal of this output is essential. We aimed to collate and summarize all published systematic reviews on the coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Methods: Nine databases (Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Sciences, PDQ-Evidence, WHO's Global Research, LILACS and Epistemonikos) were searched from December 1, 2019 to March 24, 2020. Systematic reviews analyzing primary studies of COVID-19 were included. Two authors independently undertook screening, selection, extraction (data on clinical symptoms, prevalence, pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions, diagnostic test assessment, laboratory and radiological findings) and quality assessment (AMSTAR 2). Meta-analysis on prevalence of clinical outcomes was performed. Results: Eighteen systematic reviews were included; one was empty. Using AMSTAR 2, confidence in the results of 13 reviews was rated as "critically low", one as "low", one as "moderate" and two as "high". Symptoms of COVID-19 were (range values of point estimates): fever (82-95%), cough with or without sputum (58-72%), dyspnea (26-59%), myalgia or muscle fatigue (29-51%), sore throat (10-13%), headache (8-12%) and gastrointestinal complaints (5-9%). Severe symptoms were more common in men. Elevated C-reactive protein (associated with lymphocytopenia) and lactate dehydrogenase, and slightly elevated aspartate and alanine aminotransferase, were commonly described. Thrombocytopenia and elevated levels of procalcitonin and cardiac troponin I were associated with severe disease. Chest imaging described a frequent pattern of uni- or bilateral multilobar ground-glass opacity. Only one review investigated the impact of medication (chloroquine) but found no verifiable clinical data. All-cause mortality ranged from 0.3% to 14%. Conclusions: Confidence in the results of most reviews was "critically low". Future studies and systematic reviews should adhere to established methodologies. The majority of included systematic reviews were hampered by imprecise search strategy and no previous protocol submission. Protocol registration: This is an extension of a PROSPERO protocol (CRD42020170623); protocol available on Open Science Framework (https://osf.io/6xtyw).

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Protecting Hospitals From the Invisible Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is optimized to spread widely: Its signs and symptoms are largely indistinguishable from those of other respiratory viruses. This commentary specifically addresses best ways to protect our hospitals against COVID-19.

negative: Substrate specificity profiling of SARS-CoV-2 main protease enables design of activity-based probes for patient-sample imaging In December 2019, the first cases of infection with a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, were diagnosed in Wuhan, China. Due to international travel and human-to-human transmission, the virus spread rapidly inside and outside of China. Currently, there is no effective antiviral treatment for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); therefore, research efforts are focused on the rapid development of vaccines and antiviral drugs. The SARS-CoV-2 main protease constitutes one of the most attractive antiviral drug targets. To address this emerging problem, we have synthesized a combinatorial library of fluorogenic substrates with glutamine in the P1 position. We used it to determine the substrate preferences of the SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 main proteases, using natural and a large panel of unnatural amino acids. On the basis of these findings, we designed and synthesized an inhibitor and two activity-based probes, for one of which we determined the crystal structure of its complex with the SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. Using this approach we visualized SARS-CoV-2 active Mpro within nasopharyngeal epithelial cells of a patient with active COVID-19 infection. The results of our work provide a structural framework for the design of inhibitors as antiviral agents or diagnostic tests.

negative: Coronavirus outbreaks: prevention and management recommendations

negative: SARS outbreaks in Ontario, Hong Kong and Singapore: the role of diagnosis and isolation as a control mechanism Abstract In this article we use global and regional data from the SARS epidemic in conjunction with a model of susceptible, exposed, infective, diagnosed, and recovered classes of people (“SEIJR”) to extract average properties and rate constants for those populations. The model is fitted to data from the Ontario (Toronto) in Canada, Hong Kong in China and Singapore outbreaks and predictions are made based on various assumptions and observations, including the current effect of isolating individuals diagnosed with SARS. The epidemic dynamics for Hong Kong and Singapore appear to be different from the dynamics in Toronto, Ontario. Toronto shows a very rapid increase in the number of cases between March 31st and April 6th, followed by a significant slowing in the number of new cases. We explain this as the result of an increase in the diagnostic rate and in the effectiveness of patient isolation after March 26th. Our best estimates are consistent with SARS eventually being contained in Toronto, although the time of containment is sensitive to the parameters in our model. It is shown that despite the empirically modeled heterogeneity in transmission, SARS’ average reproductive number is 1.2, a value quite similar to that computed for some strains of influenza (J. Math. Biol. 27 (1989) 233). Although it would not be surprising to see levels of SARS infection higher than 10% in some regions of the world (if unchecked), lack of data and the observed heterogeneity and sensitivity of parameters prevent us from predicting the long-term impact of SARS. The possibility that 10 or more percent of the world population at risk could eventually be infected with the virus in conjunction with a mortality rate of 3–7% or more, and indications of significant improvement in Toronto support the stringent measures that have been taken to isolate diagnosed cases.

negative: What can countries learn from Hong Kong's response to the COVID-19 pandemic?

negative: The efficiency in the ordinary hospital bed management in Italy: an in-depth analysis of intensive care unit in the areas affected by COVID-19 before the outbreak In the first months of 2020 an increasing number of individuals worldwide are infected by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A particularly severe diffusion of the virus has affected Italy and in particular its northern regions. This is resulting in a high demand of hospitalization with a particular attention on the intensive care units (ICUs). Hospitals are suffering the high degree of patients to be treated for respiratory diseases and the majority of the structures located in the north of Italy are or are going to be saturated. This has led the actual and past national and regional governments to be heavily criticized for reducing in the past years the number of beds, in particular those located in the ICUs across the country. Aim of this study is to analyse the availability of hospital beds across the country as well as to determine their management in terms of complexity and performance of cases treated at regional level. The results of this study underlines that, despite the reduction of beds for the majority of the hospital wards, ICUs availabilities did not change between 2010 and 2017. Moreover, this study confirms that the majority of the Italian regions efficiently manage these structural facilities allowing hospitals to treat patients without the risk of having an overabundance of patients and a scarcity of beds. In fact, this analysis shows that, in normal situations, the management of hospital and intensive care beds has no critical levels.

negative: Evaluation of a novel real-time RT-PCR using TOCE technology compared with culture and Seeplex RV15 for simultaneous detection of respiratory viruses Abstract Background Various kinds of commercial molecular systems have been developed for fast and more accurate detection of respiratory viruses. Anyplex™ II RV16 [RV16] was designed for simultaneous detection of 16 respiratory viruses using multiplex PCR coupled with TOCE™ technology. Objectives To compare the performance of RV16 with those of culture and Seeplex® RV15 ACE [RV15] by determining their sensitivity and specificity. Study design Seven hundred and thirty respiratory samples were tested by modified shell vial culture method, RV16, and RV15. For molecular tests, automated nucleic acid extraction and liquid handling system using MICROLAB Nimbus IVD (Hamilton, USA) was adopted to maximize the workflow and accuracy. Performance of each assay was determined against a composite reference standard. Results Two hundred and one samples (28%) out of 730 samples were positive by culture, while additional 281 (39%) were positive by RV16 or RV15. Sensitivities of RV16, RV15, and culture for virus tested were as follows: 100/93/63% for influenza A, 90/80/69% for influenza B, 98/94/63% for RSV, 98/52/23% for adenovirus, and 100/75/46% for PIV. For viruses not covered by culture, sensitivities of RV16 and RV15 were as follows: 99/81% for rhinovirus, 92/100% for coronavirus OC43, 100/56% for coronavirus 229E/NL63, 92/88% for metapneumovirus, 100/62% for bocavirus, and 91/91% for enterovirus. Overall, the specificities of culture, RV16, and RV15 (Seegene) were 100/99.9/99.9%. Conclusions RV16 assay was superior to culture method and RV15 and will be a promising tool for patient management and public health epidemiology.

negative: Risk assessment of novel coronavirus COVID-19 outbreaks outside China We developed a computational tool to assess the risk of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number Rloc). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high Rloc, the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low Rloc benefit the most from policies that further reduce Rloc. Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia and Europe, and we investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.

negative: Forecasting the Impact of Coronavirus Disease During Delivery Hospitalization: An Aid for Resources Utilization Abstract Background The ongoing Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has severely impacted the United States. In cases of infectious disease outbreak, forecasting models are often developed for resources utilization. Pregnancy and delivery pose unique challenges, given the altered maternal immune system and the fact that the majority of American women choose to deliver in the hospital setting. Objectives The aim of our study is to forecast the incidence of COVID-19 in general population and to forecast the overall incidence, severe cases, critical cases and fatal COVID-19 cases during delivery hospitalization in the United States. Study design We use a phenomenological model with generalized logistic growth models to forecast the incidence of COVID-19 in the United States from 4/15/2020 – 12/31/2020. Incidence data from 3/1/2020 – 4/14/2020 were used to provide best-fit model solution. Subsequently, Monte-Carlo simulation was performed for each week from 3/1/2020 – 12/31/2020 to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in delivery hospitalizations using the available data estimate. Results From 3/1/2020 – 12/31/2020, our model forecasted a total of 860,475 cases of COVID-19 in general population across the United States. The cumulative incidence for COVID-19 during delivery hospitalization is anticipated to be 16,601 (95% CI, 9,711 – 23,491) cases. Among those, 3,308 (95% CI, 1,755 – 4,861) cases are expected to be severe, 681 (95% CI, 1324 – 1,038) critical and 52 (95% CI, 23 – 81) maternal mortality. Assuming similar baseline maternal mortality rate as the year of 2018, we projected an increase in maternal mortality rate in the US to at least 18.7 (95% CI, 18.0 – 19.5) deaths per 100,000 live birth as a direct result of COVID-19. Conclusions COVID-19 infection in pregnant women is expected to severely impact obstetrical care. From 3/1/2020 – 12/31/2020, we project 3,308 severe and 681 critical cases, with about 52 COVID-19 related maternal mortalities during delivery hospitalization in the United States. These data might be helpful for counseling and resource allocation.

negative: Perception of emergent epidemic of COVID-2019 / SARS CoV-2 on the Polish Internet Problem: Due to the spread of SARS CoV-2 virus infection and COVID-2019 disease, there is an urgent need to analyze COVID-2019 epidemic perception in Poland. This would enable authorities for preparation of specific actions minimizing public health and economic risks. Methods: We study the perception of COVID-2019 epidemic in Polish society using quantitative analysis of its digital footprints on the Internet (on Twitter, Google, YouTube, Wikipedia and electronic media represented by Event Registry) from January 2020 to 12.03.2020 (before and after official introduction to Poland on 04.03.2020). To this end we utilize data mining, social network analysis, natural language processing techniques. Each examined internet platform was analyzed for representativeness and composition of the target group. Results: We identified three major cluster of the interest before disease introduction on the topic COVID-2019: China- and Italy-related peaks on all platforms, as well as a peak on social media related to the recent special law on combating COVID-2019. Besides, there was a peak in interest on the day of officially confirmed introduction as well as an exponential increase of interest when the Polish government declared war against disease with a massive mitigation program. From sociolingistic perspective, we found that concepts and issues of threat, fear and prevention prevailed before introduction. After introduction, practical concepts about disease and epidemic dominate. Twitter reflected the clear, structural division of the Polish political sphere. We were able to identify potential sources of misinformation as well as key actors (especially early adopters) and influencers. Conclusions: Traditional and social media not only reflect reality, but also create it. Polish authorities, having a reliable analysis of the perception of the problem, could optimally prepare and manage the social dimension of the current epidemic and future ones. Due to filter bubbles observed on Twitter, public information campaigns might have less impact on society than expected. For greater penetration, it might be necessary to diversify information channels to reach as many people as possible which might already be happening. Moreover, it might be necessary to prevent the spread of disinformation, which is now possible due to the special law on combating COVID-2019.

negative: Porcine Hemagglutinating Encephalomyelitis Virus Publisher Summary This chapter provides an overview of the classification, description, hosts, key developments, diagnostic techniques, and diagnostic reagents for porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus. Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus belongs to the family Coronaviridae; genus Coronavirus; and species Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus (HEV). Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus causes two distinct syndromes; one is known as vomiting and wasting disease, and the other involves encephalomyelitis. The hosts of porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus are pigs. Vomiting and wasting disease and encephalomyelitis were initially reported as two separate diseases in Canada in the late 1950s. Porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus was isolated in 1962, and the common etiology of the two syndromes was shown in 1969. The diagnostic techniques for porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus are virus neutralisation (VN) and agar gel immunodiffusion (AGID).

negative: Contributing to communicable diseases intelligence management in Canada: CACMID meeting, March 2007, Halifax, Nova Scotia. In the spring of 2003, the Public Health Agency of Canada (then, Health Canada) partnered with several provincial/territorial and regional public health stakeholders to improve pan-Canadian public health surveillance, communications and response through the application of new technologies. This resulted in the creation of the Canadian Network for Public Health Intelligence (CNPHI), a comprehensive framework of applications and resources designed to fill critical gaps in Canada's national public health infostructure. Over the past four years, the CNPHI has evolved into Canada's only pan-Canadian public health information management system. With over 2000 registered users, the current CNPHI environment consists of more than 30 integrated applications and systems that can be loosely categorized into four functional groups: data exchange; data analysis and integration; communication, collaboration and coordination; and knowledge management. Despite poor data repositories, legacy information management systems, and the lack of standards and agreements, the CNPHI has demonstrated that much can be accomplished in these areas. Over the next decade, significant barriers impeding additional advances will be bridged through the implementation of the Electronic Health Record, and through ongoing efforts to address gaps in standards, and data- and information-sharing agreements. Together with new technologies coming on-line, opportunities to further enhance public health surveillance and response will be limited only by one's imagination.

negative: A model to estimate bed demand for COVID-19 related hospitalization As of March 23, 2020 there have been over 354,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in over 180 countries, the World Health Organization characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic, and the United States (US) announced a national state of emergency.1, 2, 3 In parts of China and Italy the demand for intensive care (IC) beds was higher than the number of available beds.4, 5 We sought to build an accessible interactive model that could facilitate hospital capacity planning in the presence of significant uncertainty about the proportion of the population that is COVID-19+ and the rate at which COVID-19 is spreading in the population. Our approach was to design a tool with parameters that hospital leaders could adjust to reflect their local data and easily modify to conduct sensitivity analyses. We developed a model to facilitate hospital planning with estimates of the number of Intensive Care (IC) beds, Acute Care (AC) beds, and ventilators necessary to accommodate patients who require hospitalization for COVID-19 and how these compare to the available resources. Inputs to the model include estimates of the characteristics of the patient population and hospital capacity. We deployed this model as an interactive online tool.6 The model is implemented in R 3.5, RStudio, RShiny 1.4.0 and Python 3.7. The parameters used may be modified as data become available, for use at other institutions, and to generate sensitivity analyses. We illustrate the use of the model by estimating the demand generated by COVID-19+ arrivals for a hypothetical acute care medical center. The model calculated that the number of patients requiring an IC bed would equal the number of IC beds on Day 23, the number of patients requiring a ventilator would equal the number of ventilators available on Day 27, and the number of patients requiring an AC bed and coverage by the Medicine Service would equal the capacity of the Medicine service on Day 21. In response to the COVID-19 epidemic, hospitals must understand their current and future capacity to care for patients with severe illness. While there is significant uncertainty around the parameters used to develop this model, the analysis is based on transparent logic and starts from observed data to provide a robust basis of projections for hospital managers. The model demonstrates the need and provides an approach to address critical questions about staffing patterns for IC and AC, and equipment capacity such as ventilators.

negative: SARS-Cov-2 in Spanish Intensive Care: Early Experience with 15-day Survival In Vitoria Abstract Purpose: Community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in Spain in February 2020, with 216% intensive care unit (ICU) capacity expanded in Vitoria by March 18th, 2020. Methods: We identified patients from the two public hospitals in Vitoria who were admitted to ICU with confirmed infection by SARS-CoV-2. Data reported here were available in March 31th, 2020. Mortality was assessed in those who completed 7-days of ICU stay. Results: We identified 48 patients (27 males) with confirmed SARS-CoV-2. Median [interquartile range (IQR)] age of patients was 63 [51-75] years. Symptoms began a median of 7 [5-12] days before ICU admission. The most common comorbidities identified were obesity (n = 48%), arterial hypertension (n = 44%) and chronic lung disease (n = 37%). All patients were admitted by hypoxemic respiratory failure and none received non-invasive mechanical ventilation. Forty-five (94%) underwent intubation, 3 HFNT, 1 (2%) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and 22 (49%) required prone position. After 15 days, 14/45 (31%) intubated patients died (13% within one week), 10 (22%) were extubated, and 21/45 (47%) underwent mechanical ventilation. Six patients had documented co-infection. Procalcitonin plasma above 0.5 µg/L was associated with 16% vs. 19% (p = 0.78) risk of death after 7 days. Conclusion: This early experience with SARS-CoV-2 in Spain suggests that a strategy of right oxygenation avoiding non-invasive mechanical ventilation was life-saving. Seven-day mortality in SARS-CoV-2 requiring intubation was lower than 15%, with 80% of patients still requiring mechanical ventilation. After 15 days of ICU admission, half of patients remained intubated, whereas one third died.

negative: The Novel Coronavirus Originating in Wuhan, China: Challenges for Global Health Governance

negative: Confronting COVID-19: Surging critical care capacity in Italy The current spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Europe threats Italian capacity and that of other national health systems to effectively respond to the needs of patients who require intensive care, mostly due to pneumonia and derived complications from concomitant disease and age. Predicting the surge in capacity has proved difficult due to the requirement of a subtle combination of diverse expertise and difficult choices to be made on selecting robust measures of critical care utilization, and parsimonious epidemic modelling which account for changing government measures. We modelled the required surge capacity of ICU beds in Italy exclusively for COVID-19 patients at epidemic peak. Because new measures were imposed by the Italian government, suspending nearly all non-essential sectors of the economy, we included the potential impacts of these new measures. The modelling considered those hospitalized and home isolated as quarantined, mimicking conditions on the ground. The percentage of patients in intensive care (out of the daily active confirmed cases) required for our calculations were chosen based on clinical relevance and robustness, and this number was consistently on average 9.9% from February 24 to March 6, 2020. Five different scenarios were produced (two positive and three negative). Under most positive scenarios, in which R0 is reduced below 1 (i.e., 0.71), the number of daily active confirmed cases will peak at nearly 89 000 by the early days of April and the total number of intensive care beds exclusively dedicated to COVID-19 patients required in Italy estimated at 8791. Worst scenarios produce unmanageable numbers. Our results suggest that the decisive moment for Italy has come. Jointly reinforcement by the government of the measures approved so far, including home confinement, but even more important the full commitment of the civil society in respecting home confinement, social distancing and hygiene will be key in the next days. Yet, even under the best circumstances, intensive care capacity will need to get closer to 9000 units in the country to avoid preventable mortality. So far, only strong measures were effective in Italy, as shown by our modelling, and this may offer an opportunity to European countries to accelerate their interventions.

negative: ACE-2 Expression in the Small Airway Epithelia of Smokers and COPD Patients: Implications for COVID-19 Introduction: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory infection caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARSCoV-2). This virus uses the angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2) as the cellular entry receptor to infect the lower respiratory tract. Because individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at increased risk of severe COVID19, we determined whether ACE2 expression in the lower airways was related to COPD and cigarette smoking. Methods: Using RNAseq, we determined gene expression levels in bronchial epithelia obtained from cytologic brushings of 6th to 8th generation airways in individuals with and without COPD. We externally validated these results from two additional independent cohorts, which used microarray technologies to measure gene expression levels from 6th to 12th generation airways. Results: In the discovery cohort (n=42 participants), we found that ACE2 expression levels were increased by 48% in the airways of COPD compared with non-COPD subjects (COPD=2.52 (0.66) log2 counts per million reads (CPM) versus non-COPD= 1.70 (0.51) CPM , p=.000762). There was a significant inverse relationship between ACE2 gene expression and FEV1% of predicted (r=negative 0.24; p=0.035). Current smoking also significantly increased ACE2 expression levels compared with never smokers (never current smokers=2.77 (90.91) CPM versus smokers=1.78 (0.39) CPM, p=0.024). These findings were replicated in the two external cohorts. Conclusions: ACE2 expression in lower airways is increased in patients with COPD and with current smoking. These data suggest that these two subgroups are at increased risk of serious COVID19 infection and highlight the importance of smoking cessation in reducing the risk.

negative: Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): An Emerging Infectious Disease in the 21st Century Background: At the beginning of the New Year 2020, China alerted the world health organization (WHO) to a cluster of unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan After extensive speculation, eventually a new species of coronavirus introduced as the causative pathogen of the disease Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a name for the disease, and the virus that causes it is known SARS-CoV-2 The very rapid spread of the COVID-19 in China and in many other countries has caused fear among people across the world The novel coronavirus outbreak declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020 Materials and Methods: Several databases such as PubMed, Scopus, Google scholar, and BioRxiv were searched for publications reporting on the novel coronavirus up to 29 February 2020 Literature searches were performed using keywords including “Coronavirus 2019”, “2019-nCoV”, “COVID-19”, and “SARS-CoV-2” Moreover, websites such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) were searched to retrieve updated data and statistics regarding the novel coronavirus We extracted data on the epidemiology, pathogenesis, virology, clinical manifestations, transmission routes, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention measures Results: From the 1416 articles identified in the initial search, 53 were remained after title and abstract screening After full-text review, 37 articles were eligible to include in our study Incubation period for COVID-19 is between 2-10 days, according to the World Health Organization (WHO) The case fatality rate in patients infected with SARC-CoV-2 is 4 3%, and the results indicate that the mortality is higher in elderly individuals and patients with chronic conditions including patients with coronary artery disease, diabetes, chronic pulmonary disease, and hypertension The mortality rate in healthy subjects is less than 1% Conclusion: The outbreak caused by the novel coronavirus is larger than the previous human coronaviruses, showing that the SARS-CoV-2 is an extremely contagious virus However, the mortality rate of COVID-19 is lower than that of other coronaviruses diseases such as SARS or MERS and other viruses like HIV and Ebola Currently, due to the lack of an effective treatment and vaccine, the best way to deal with the COVID-19 disease is to prevent transmission and spread of the virus and to execute personal protective measures

negative: Explaining the Bomb-Like Dynamics of COVID-19 with Modeling and the Implications for Policy Using a Bayesian approach to epidemiological compartmental modeling, we demonstrate the bomb-like behavior of exponential growth in COVID-19 cases can be explained by transmission of asymptomatic and mild cases that are typically unreported at the beginning of pandemic events due to lower prevalence of testing. We studied the exponential phase of the pandemic in Italy, Spain, and South Korea, and found the R0 to be 2.56 (95% CrI, 2.41-2.71), 3.23 (95% CrI, 3.06-3.4), and 2.36 (95% CrI, 2.22-2.5) if we use Bayesian priors that assume a large portion of cases are not detected. Weaker priors regarding the detection rate resulted in R0 values of 9.22 (95% CrI, 9.01-9.43), 9.14 (95% CrI, 8.99-9.29), and 8.06 (95% CrI, 7.82-8.3) and assumes nearly 90% of infected patients are identified. Given the mounting evidence that potentially large fractions of the population are asymptomatic, the weaker priors that generate the high R0 values to fit the data required assumptions about the epidemiology of COVID-19 that do not fit with the biology, particularly regarding the timeframe that people remain infectious. Our results suggest that models of transmission assuming a relatively lower R0 value that do not consider a large number of asymptomatic cases can result in misunderstanding of the underlying dynamics, leading to poor policy decisions and outcomes.

negative: [Diagnostic and therapeutic strategies of lung cancer patients during the outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19)]. With the increasing number of cases and widening geographical spread, the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been classified as one of the class B infectious diseases but prevented and controlled as class A infectious disease by the National Health Commission of China. The diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer patients have been challenged greatly because of extraordinary public health measures since the lung cancer patients are a high-risk population during the COVID-19 outbreak period. Strict protection for lung cancer patients is needed to avoid infection. Lung cancer patients are difficult to differentiate from patients with COVID-19 in terms of clinical symptoms, which will bring great trouble to the clinical work and physical and mental health of lung cancer patients. This review will demonstrate how to applicate appropriate and individual management for lung cancer patients to protect them from COVID-19.

negative: Pharmacy Emergency Preparedness and Response (PEPR) framework for expanding pharmacy professionals’ roles and contributions to emergency preparedness and response during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond Abstract Background Pharmacists have long been involved in public health and emergency preparedness and response (EP&R), including through preventive measures such as screening, vaccinations, testing and pharmaceutical countermeasures, as well as ensuring medication safety and access during natural disasters and pandemics. Pharmacy professionals are considered essential partners in response to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Community and hospital pharmacies are expanding services and hours to provide essential services, putting pharmacists and their co-workers at the frontlines for patient care and safety to improve public health. In addition, pharmacy professionals are increasingly integrating into global, national, state and local EP&R efforts, including into interprofessional teams, such as Medical Reserve Corps (MRCs). However, lacunae exist for further integration of pharmacists into public health and safety initiatives. There are increasing opportunities and recommendations that should be expanded upon to provide improved patient care and population health intervention, and to ensure healthcare worker and public health safety. Objective Develop a Pharmacy Emergency Preparedness and Response (PEPR) Framework and recommendations for pharmacy professional pathways towards full integration within public health EP&R efforts (such as the COVID-19 pandemic), and enhanced recognition of pharmacists’ skills, roles and contributions as integral members of the interprofessional healthcare team. Methods This paper draws on the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists (ASHP) 2003 Statement on the Role of Health-System Pharmacists in Emergency Preparedness and lessons learned from previous and current public health emergencies, such as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the current COVID-19 pandemic, to provide expanded guidance for pharmacists and pharmacy professionals across all practice settings in EP&R. The PEPR framework also incorporates information and recommendations from The Pharmacy Organizations’ Joint Policy Recommendations to Combat the COVID-19 Pandemic (March 2020), CDC-NIOSH, Health Departments and Emergency Preparedness guidance and resources, Boards of Pharmacy, and other pharmacy professional organizations and educational institutions. Results Based on the methods and resources utilized in developing this PEPR framework, five key focus areas were identified as follow: 1) Emergency preparedness and response 2) Operations management 3) Patient care and population health interventions 4) Public health pharmacy education and continuing professional education 5) Evaluation, research and dissemination for impact and outcomes Conclusion and Recommendations: Pharmacists and pharmacy professionals have been at the frontlines in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, challenges remain, such as limited availability of personal protection equipment, high risk of infectious exposures inherent in healthcare professions, and legislative hurdles resulting in lack of provider status and related reimbursements. Recommendations to enhance pharmacy's scope as public health professionals involved in EP&R include targeted training and education on key framework areas and policymaking. Pharmacy professionals should further integrate with interdisciplinary public health teams. Additional research and dissemination on impacts and outcomes of EP&R can enhance recognition of pharmacy professionals' contribution and value during public health emergencies. The PEPR Framework can be utilized to develop, implement, evaluate, and disseminate results in order to strengthen existing efforts and to establish new initiatives in EP&R.

negative: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness Background The ability of global health systems to cope with increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases is of major concern. In readiness for this challenge, Australia has drawn on clinical pathway models developed over many years in preparation for influenza pandemics. These models have been used to estimate health care requirements for COVID-19 patients, in the context of broader public health measures. Methods An age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 infection was used to simulate an unmitigated epidemic with parameter ranges reflecting uncertainty in current estimates of transmissibility and severity. Overlaid public health measures included case isolation and quarantine of contacts, and broadly applied social distancing. Clinical presentations and patient flows through the Australian health care system were simulated, including expansion of available intensive care capacity and alternative clinical assessment pathways. Findings An unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the Australian health system, over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to constrain case presentations within a feasible level of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions will need to be applied at some level over the course of the epidemic to ensure that systems do not become overwhelmed, and that essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed to ensure access to critical care. Interpretation Reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality will rely on a combination of measures to strengthen and extend public health and clinical capacity, along with reduction of overall infection transmission in the community. Ongoing attention to maintaining and strengthening the capacity of health care systems and workers to manage cases is needed.

negative: COVID-19 Fatality and Comorbidity Risk Factors among Confirmed Patients in Mexico As of April 18, 2020, 2.16 million patients in the world had been tested positive with Coronavirus (COVID-19) and 146,088 had died, which accounts for a case fatality rate of 6.76%. In Mexico, according to official statistics (April 18), 7,497 cases have been confirmed with 650 deaths, for a case fatality rate of 8.67%. These estimates, however, may not reflect the final fatality risk among COVID-19 confirmed patients, because they are based on cross-sectional counts of diagnosed and deceased patients, and therefore are not adjusted by time of exposure and right-censorship. In this paper we estimate fatality risks based on survival analysis methods, calculated from individual-level data on symptomatic patients confirmed with COVID-19 recently released by the Mexican Ministry of Health. The estimated fatality risk after 35 days of onset of symptoms is 12.38% (95% CI: 11.37-13.47). Fatality risks sharply rise with age, and significantly increase for males (59%) and individuals with comorbidities (38%-168%, depending on the disease). Two reasons may explain the high COVID-19 related fatality risk observed in Mexico, despite its younger age structure: the high selectivity and self-selectivity in testing and the high prevalence of chronic-degenerative diseases.

negative: Can India develop herd immunity against COVID-19? World Health Organization declared the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak to be a public health crisis of international concern. Further, it provided advice to the global community that countries should place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts and promote “social distancing” measures commensurate with the risk. This study analyses the COVID-19 infection data from the top 15 affected countries in which we observed heterogeneous growth patterns of the virus. Hence, this paper applies multifractal formalism on COVID-19 data with the notion that country-specific infection rates follow a power law growth behaviour. According to the estimated generalized fractal dimension curves, the effects of drastic containment measures on the pandemic in India indicate that a significant reduction of the infection rate as its population is concern. Also, comparison results with other countries demonstrate that India has less death rate or more immunity against COVID-19.

negative: A case‐controlled study comparing clinical course and outcomes of pregnant and non‐pregnant women with severe acute respiratory syndrome Objective To compare the clinical courses and outcomes of pregnant severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) patients and non‐pregnant SARS patients. Design A case–control study. Setting Tertiary Hospital for Infectious Disease. Sample Ten pregnant and 40 non‐pregnant female patients infected with SARS. Methods Clinical course and outcomes of pregnant SARS patients were compared with a group of non‐pregnant SARS patient. Cases and controls were matched with respect to sex, age, timing of contracting SARS, health care workers status and underlying illness. Main outcome measures The incidence of intensive care unit admission, intubation, medical complications and death rate. Results Pregnancy had no discernible impact on clinical symptoms and presentation delay. Four out of the 10 pregnant patients, nevertheless, required endotracheal intubation and six were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), as compared with 12.5% intubation rate (P= 0.065) and 17.5% ICU admission rate (P= 0.012) in the non‐pregnant group. More pregnant SARS patients developed renal failure (P= 0.006) and disseminated intravascular coagulopathy (P= 0.006), as compared with non‐pregnant SARS group. There were three deaths in the pregnant group, whereas there was no death in the non‐pregnant control group (P= 0.006). Conclusion Pregnant women with SARS experience a worse clinical course and poorer outcomes compared with non‐pregnant women.

negative: DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR genetic diversity among different ethnic populations: Potential implications for pathogen recognition and disease susceptibility Dendritic cell–specific intracellular adhesion molecule-3–grabbing nonintegrin (DC-SIGN) and DC-SIGNR are C-type lectins that serve both as cell adhesion and pathogen recognition receptors. Because of the essential role of the these molecules in the immune response, the implication of their alleles in human disease states, and the possible genetic variation at these loci among ethnically diverse populations, we undertook a study to analyze the full extent of DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR polymorphisms in Caucasian Canadian and indigenous African populations. We report several novel nucleotide variants within regulatory 5′- and 3′-untranslated regions of the genes that could affect their transcription and translation. There were significant differences in the distribution of DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR alleles among African and non-African populations. Finally, our study clearly demonstrates that Africans show greater genetic diversity at these two closely-related immune loci than observed in other major population groups. The differences may reflect evolutionary pressures generated by environmental factors, such as prevalent pathogens in these geographically distinct regions. Further studies will be needed to determine the net impact of DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR genetic variants on the expression, translation, and function of the proteins and to understand how these functional polymorphisms may affect immune responses or immune escape.

negative: Recommendations for Endotracheal Intubation of COVID-19 Patients

negative: [Identification and molecular cloning and sequence analysis of a novel coronavirus from patients with SARS by RT-PCR]. OBJECTIVE To investigate the etiologic agents of the SARS and develop diagnostic method for this disease. METHODS Thirty-six nasopharyngeal aspirate specimens from 27 patients with SARS in Shenzhen were collected. The samples were aliquotted to three parts and subjected to molecular assays for human metapneumovirus, chlamydia and a novel coronavirus, which was reported recently to be the etiologic agent of SARS. Nested RT-PCR was used to amplify the RNA polymerase gene of the novel coronavirus and the PCR products were sequenced directly or after cloned to pMD18-T vector. RESULTS Human metapneumovirus and chlamydia genes were detected in none of the specimens using the RT-PCR and nested-PCR, respectively. The novel coronavirus gene were amplified in 6 of 36 specimens, the sequence analysis indicated that this novel coronavirus is unrelated to any other coronavirus reported previously. The nucleotide and deduced amino acid alignment between this coronavirus and others was not more than 40% and 70% to 82%, respectively, while the nucleotide sequence cloned from the 6 patients were identical. CONCLUSIONS The SARS patients in Shenzhen were infected with coronavirus and this novel coronavirus is associated with SARS. The sequence analysis indicated that the coronavirus from SARS patients in Shenzhen is the same as that identified from other areas such as Canada and Hong Kong. A specific diagnostic nested RT-PCR was developed to identify this novel coronavirus infection.

negative: Remote Data Retrieval for Bioinformatics Applications: An Agent Migration Approach Some of the approaches have been developed to retrieve data automatically from one or multiple remote biological data sources. However, most of them require researchers to remain online and wait for returned results. The latter not only requires highly available network connection, but also may cause the network overload. Moreover, so far none of the existing approaches has been designed to address the following problems when retrieving the remote data in a mobile network environment: (1) the resources of mobile devices are limited; (2) network connection is relatively of low quality; and (3) mobile users are not always online. To address the aforementioned problems, we integrate an agent migration approach with a multi-agent system to overcome the high latency or limited bandwidth problem by moving their computations to the required resources or services. More importantly, the approach is fit for the mobile computing environments. Presented in this paper are also the system architecture, the migration strategy, as well as the security authentication of agent migration. As a demonstration, the remote data retrieval from GenBank was used to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

negative: ACP risk grade: a simple mortality index for patients with confirmed or suspected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 disease (COVID-19) during the early stage of outbreak in Wuhan, China Background: Since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) outbreaks in Wuhan, China, healthcare systems capacities in highly endemic areas have been overwhelmed. Approaches to efficient management are urgently needed and key to a quicker control of the outbreaks and casualties. We aimed to characterize the clinical features of hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19, and develop a mortality risk index for COVID-19 patients. Methods: In this retrospective one-centre cohort study, we included all the confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients hospitalized in a COVID-19-designated hospital from January 21 to February 5, 2020. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, radiological and clinical outcome data were collected from the hospital information system, nursing records and laboratory reports. Results: Of 577 patients with at least one post-admission evaluation, the median age was 55 years (interquartile range [IQR], 39 - 66); 254 (44.0%) were men; 22.8% (100/438) were severe pneumonia on admission, and 37.7% (75/199) patients were SARS-CoV-2 positive. The clinical, laboratory and radiological data were comparable between positive and negative SARS-CoV-2 patients. During a median follow-up of 8.4 days (IQR, 5.8 - 12.0), 39 patients died with a 12-day cumulative mortality of 8.7% (95% CI, 5.9% to 11.5%). A simple mortality risk index (called ACP index), composed of Age and C-reactive Protein, was developed. By applying the ACP index, patients were categorized into three grades. The 12-day cumulative mortality in grade three (age ≥ 60 years and CRP ≥ 34 mg/L) was 33.2% (95% CI, 19.8% to 44.3%), which was significantly higher than those of grade two (age ≥ 60 years and CRP < 34 mg/L; age < 60 years and CRP ≥ 34 mg/L; 5.6% [95% CI, 0 to 11.3%]) and grade one (age < 60 years and CRP < 34 mg/L, 0%) (P <0.001), respectively. Conclusion: The ACP index can predict COVID-19 related short-term mortality, which may be a useful and convenient tool for quickly establishing a COVID-19 hierarchical management system that can greatly reduce the medical burden and therefore mortality in highly endemic areas.

negative: Infección por coronavirus (COVID-19) en Anales de Pediatría

negative: Molecular epidemiology of the novel coronavirus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome Summary Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a newly emerged disease caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV), which spread globally in early 2003, affecting over 30 countries. We have used molecular epidemiology to define the patterns of spread of the virus in Hong Kong and beyond. Methods The case definition of SARS was based on that recommended by WHO. We genetically sequenced the gene for the S1 unit of the viral spike protein of viruses from patients with SARS in Hong Kong (138) and Guangdong (three) in February to April, 2003. We undertook phylogenetic comparisons with 27 other sequences available from public databases (Genbank). Findings Most of the Hong Kong viruses (139/142), including those from a large outbreak in an apartment block, clustered closely together with the isolate from a single index case (HKU-33) who came from Guangdong to Hong Kong in late February. Three other isolates were genetically distinct from HKU-33 in Hong Kong during February, but none of these contributed substantially to the subsequent local outbreak. Viruses identified in Guangdong and Beijing were genetically more diverse. Interpretation The molecular epidemiological evidence suggests that most SARS-CoV from the outbreak in Hong Kong, as well as the viruses from Canada, Vietnam, and Singapore, are genetically closely linked. Three viruses found in Hong Kong in February were phylogenetically distinct from the major cluster, which suggests that several introductions of the virus had occurred, but that only one was associated with the subsequent outbreak in Hong Kong, which in turn spread globally.

negative: Regression Approach for Modeling COVID-19 Spread and its Impact On Stock Market The paper studies different regression approaches for modeling COVID-19 spread and its impact on the stock market. The logistic curve model was used with Bayesian regression for predictive analytics of the coronavirus spread. The impact of COVID-19 was studied using regression approach and compared to other crises influence. In practical analytics, it is important to find the maximum of coronavirus cases per day, this point means the estimated half time of coronavirus spread in the region under investigation. The obtained results show that different crises with different reasons have different impact on the same stocks. It is important to analyze their impact separately. Bayesian inference makes it possible to analyze the uncertainty of crisis impacts.

negative: Managing Obstetrical Patients During Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Outbreak Abstract Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a newly described infectious disease caused by a coronavirus. Two outbreaks occurred in Toronto in the spring of 2003, resulting in the closure of 3 hospitals, including 2 obstetrical units. Strategies, devised using information about the coronavirus available at the time as well as epidemiologic and infectious disease containment measures were initiated to protect obstetrical patients and staff. In the first outbreak, the obstetrical unit of an affected Toronto hospital was kept open while other clinical services were closed. In the second outbreak, the obstetrical unit was closed along with all other clinical activities. This report details the stepwise processes used to make decisions during the SARS outbreaks and the implementation of the decisions made. It is recommended that these or similar protocols be used when an obstetrical unit is confronted with a large-scale nosocomial infectious outbreak that has a mechanism of transmission similar to that of SARS.

negative: Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. METHODS: We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. FINDINGS: Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18–23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

negative: Anaesthesia and COVID-19: infection control Summary The world is currently facing an unprecedented healthcare crisis caused by a pandemic novel beta coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The pathogen is spread by human-to-human transmission via droplets exposure and contact transfer, causing mild symptoms in the majority of cases, but critical illness, bilateral viral pneumonia, and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in a minority. Currently, controlling infection to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is the primary public healthcare intervention used. The pace of transmission and global scale of SARS-CoV-2 infections has implications for strategic oversight, resource management, and responsiveness in infection control. This article presents a summary of learning points in epidemiological infection control from the SARS epidemic, alongside a review of evidence connecting current understanding of the virologic and environmental contamination properties of SARS-CoV-2. We present suggestions for how personal protective equipment policies relate to the viral pandemic context and how the risk of transmission by and to anaesthetists, intensivists, and other healthcare workers can be minimised.

negative: Cardiothoracic surgery at the time of COVID-19 pandemic: lessons from the East (and from a previous epidemic) for western battlefields

negative: Community-acquired pneumonia among children: the latest evidence for an updated management() OBJECTIVE: To provide cutting-edge information for the management of community-acquired pneumonia in children under 5 years, based on the latest evidence published in the literature. DATA SOURCE: A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed, by using the expressions: “community-acquired pneumonia” AND “child” AND “etiology” OR “diagnosis” OR “severity” OR “antibiotic”. All articles retrieved had the title and the abstract read, when the papers reporting the latest evidence on each subject were identified and downloaded for complete reading. DATA SYNTHESIS: In the era of largely implemented bacterial conjugate vaccines and widespread use of amplification nucleic acid techniques, respiratory viruses have been identified as the most frequent causative agents of community-acquired pneumonia in patients under 5 years. Hypoxemia (oxygen saturation ≤96%) and increased work of breathing are signs most associated with community-acquired pneumonia. Wheezing detected on physical examination independently predicts viral infection and the negative predictive value (95% confidence interval) of normal chest X-ray and serum procalcitonin <0.25 ng/dL was 92% (77–98%) and 93% (90–99%), respectively. Inability to drink/feed, vomiting everything, convulsions, lower chest indrawing, central cyanosis, lethargy, nasal flaring, grunting, head nodding, and oxygen saturation <90% are predictors of death and can be used as indicators for hospitalization. Moderate/large pleural effusions and multilobar infiltrates are predictors of severe disease. Orally administered amoxicillin is the first line outpatient treatment, while ampicillin, aqueous penicillin G, or amoxicillin (initiated initially by intravenous route) are the first line options to treat inpatients. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct aspects of childhood community-acquired pneumonia have changed during the last three decades.

negative: Cosmopolitanism and foreign policy for health: ethics for and beyond the state BACKGROUND: Foreign policy holds great potential to improve the health of a global citizenship. Our contemporary political order is, in part, characterized by sovereign states acting either in opposition or cooperation with other sovereign states. This order is also characterized by transnational efforts to address transnational issues such as those featured so prominently in the area of global health, such as the spread of infectious disease, health worker migration and the movement of health-harming products. These two features of the current order understandably create tension for truly global initiatives. DISCUSSION: National security has become the dominant ethical frame underlying the health-based foreign policy of many states, despite the transnational nature of many contemporary health challenges. This ethical approach engages global health as a means to achieving national security objectives. Implicit in this ethical frame is the version of humanity that dichotomizes between “us” and “them”. What has been left out of this discourse, for the most part, is the role that foreign policy can play in extending the responsibility of states to protect and promote health of the other, for the sake of the other. SUMMARY: The principal purpose of this paper is to review arguments for a cosmopolitan ethics of health-based foreign policy. I will argue that health-based foreign policy that is motivated by security interests is lacking both morally and practically to further global health goals. In other words, a cosmopolitan ethic is not only intrinsically superior as a moral ideal, but also has potential to contribute to utilitarian ends. This paper draws on the cosmopolitanism literature to build robust support for foreign policies that contribute to sustainable systems of global health governance.

negative: Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of hospitalized 2019 coronavirus disease among 9,596,321 individuals residing in California and Washington, United States: a prospective cohort study Background: The United States is now the country reporting the highest number of 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases and deaths. However, little is known about the epidemiology and burden of severe COVID-19 to inform planning within healthcare systems and modeling of intervention impact. Methods: We assessed incidence, duration of hospitalization, and clinical outcomes of acute COVID-19 inpatient admissions in a prospectively-followed cohort of 9,596,321 individuals enrolled in comprehensive, integrated healthcare delivery plans from Kaiser Permanente in California and Washington state. We also estimated the effective reproductive number (RE) describing transmission in the study populations. Results: Data covered 1277 hospitalized patients with laboratory- or clinically-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis by April 9, 2020. Cumulative incidence of first COVID-19 acute inpatient admission was 10.6-12.4 per 100,000 cohort members across the study regions. Mean censoring-adjusted duration of hospitalization was 10.7 days (2.5-97.5%iles: 0.8-30.1) among survivors and 13.7 days (2.5-97.5%iles: 1.7-34.6) among non-survivors. Among all hospitalized confirmed cases, censoring-adjusted probabilities of ICU admission and mortality were 41.9% (95% confidence interval: 34.1-51.4%) and 17.8% (14.3-22.2%), respectively, and higher among men than women. We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020. Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

negative: A Mini Review on Current Clinical and Research Findings for Children Suffering from COVID-19 Background: As the novel coronavirus triggering COVID-19 has broken out in Wuhan, China and spread rapidly worldwide, it threatens the lives of thousands of people and poses a global threat on the economies of the entire world. However, infection with COVID-19 is currently rare in children. Objective To discuss the latest findings and research focus on the basis of characteristics of children confirmed with COVID-19, and provide an insight into the future treatment and research direction. Methods: We searched the terms "COVID-19 OR coronavirus OR SARS-CoV-2" AND "Pediatric OR children" on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, NIH, CDC, and CNKI. The authors also reviewed the guidelines published on Chinese CDC and Chinese NHC. Results: We included 25 published literature references related to the epidemiology, clinical manifestation, accessary examination, treatment, and prognosis of pediatric patients with COVID-19. Conclusion: The numbers of children with COVID-19 pneumonia infection are small, and most of them come from family aggregation. Symptoms are mainly mild or even asymptomatic, which allow children to be a risk factor for transmission. Thus, strict epidemiological history screening is needed for early diagnosis and segregation. This holds especially for infants, who are more susceptible to infection than other age groups in pediatric age, but have most likely subtle and unspecific symptoms. They need to be paid more attention to. CT examination is a necessity for screening the suspected cases, because most of the pediatric patients are mild cases, and plain chest X-ray do not usually show the lesions or the detailed features. Therefore, early chest CT examination combined with pathogenic detection is a recommended clinical diagnosis scheme in children. The risk factors which may suggest severe or critical progress for children are: Fast respiratory rate and/or; lethargy and drowsiness mental state and/or; lactate progressively increasing and/or; imaging showed bilateral or multi lobed infiltration, pleural effusion or rapidly expending of lesions in a short period of time and/or; less than 3 months old or those who underly diseases. For those critical pediatric patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, polypnea may be the most common symptom. For treatment, the elevated PCT seen in children in contrast to adults suggests that the underlying coinfection/secondary infection may be more common in pediatric patients and appropriate antibacterial treatment should be considered. Once cytokine storm is found in these patients, anti-autoimmune or blood-purifying therapy should be given in time. Furthermore, effective isolation measures and appropriate psychological comfort need to be provided timely.

negative: Infodemiological Study Using Google Trends on Coronavirus Epidemic in Wuhan, China The recent emergence of a new coronavirus (COVID-19) has gained a high cover in public media and worldwide news. The virus has caused a viral pneumonia in tens of thousands of people in Wuhan, a central city of China. This short paper gives a brief introduction on how the demand for information on this new epidemic is reported through Google Trends. The reported period is 31 December 2020 to 20 March 2020. The authors draw conclusions on current infodemiological data on COVID-19 using three main search keywords: coronavirus, SARS and MERS. Two approaches are set. First is the worldwide perspective, second - the Chinese one, which reveals that in China this disease in the first days was more often referred to SARS then to general coronaviruses, whereas worldwide, since the beginning, it is more often referred to coronaviruses.

negative: Surveillance and Control of Communicable Disease in Conflicts and Disasters To describe the principles of health surveillance in conflict and disaster situations. To assist in organising a health surveillance system in conflict and disaster situations. To describe the principles of control of communicable diseases in conflict and disaster situations. To assist in organising a response to outbreaks and epidemics. To introduce the challenges associated with health surveillance and communicable diseases in conflict and disaster situations.

negative: Early epidemiological analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak based on crowdsourced data: a population-level observational study Summary Background As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) progresses, epidemiological data are needed to guide situational awareness and intervention strategies. Here we describe efforts to compile and disseminate epidemiological information on COVID-19 from news media and social networks. Methods In this population-level observational study, we searched DXY.cn, a health-care-oriented social network that is currently streaming news reports on COVID-19 from local and national Chinese health agencies. We compiled a list of individual patients with COVID-19 and daily province-level case counts between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, in China. We also compiled a list of internationally exported cases of COVID-19 from global news media sources (Kyodo News, The Straits Times, and CNN), national governments, and health authorities. We assessed trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19 and studied the outbreak progression across China, assessing delays between symptom onset, seeking care at a hospital or clinic, and reporting, before and after Jan 18, 2020, as awareness of the outbreak increased. All data were made publicly available in real time. Findings We collected data for 507 patients with COVID-19 reported between Jan 13 and Jan 31, 2020, including 364 from mainland China and 143 from outside of China. 281 (55%) patients were male and the median age was 46 years (IQR 35–60). Few patients (13 [3%]) were younger than 15 years and the age profile of Chinese patients adjusted for baseline demographics confirmed a deficit of infections among children. Across the analysed period, delays between symptom onset and seeking care at a hospital or clinic were longer in Hubei province than in other provinces in mainland China and internationally. In mainland China, these delays decreased from 5 days before Jan 18, 2020, to 2 days thereafter until Jan 31, 2020 (p=0·0009). Although our sample captures only 507 (5·2%) of 9826 patients with COVID-19 reported by official sources during the analysed period, our data align with an official report published by Chinese authorities on Jan 28, 2020. Interpretation News reports and social media can help reconstruct the progression of an outbreak and provide detailed patient-level data in the context of a health emergency. The availability of a central physician-oriented social network facilitated the compilation of publicly available COVID-19 data in China. As the outbreak progresses, social media and news reports will probably capture a diminishing fraction of COVID-19 cases globally due to reporting fatigue and overwhelmed health-care systems. In the early stages of an outbreak, availability of public datasets is important to encourage analytical efforts by independent teams and provide robust evidence to guide interventions. Funding Fogarty International Center, US National Institutes of Health.

negative: Interdisciplinary and Collaborative Approaches Needed to Determine Impact of COVID-19 on Older Adults and Aging: CAG/ACG and CJA/RCV Joint Statement The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent state of public emergency have significantly affected older adults in Canada and worldwide. It is imperative that the gerontological response be efficient and effective. In this statement, the board members of the Canadian Association on Gerontology/L'Association canadienne de gérontologie (CAG/ACG) and the Canadian Journal on Aging/La revue canadienne du vieillissement (CJA/RCV) acknowledge the contributions of CAG/ACG members and CJA/RCV readers. We also profile the complex ways that COVID-19 is affecting older adults, from individual to population levels, and advocate for the adoption of multidisciplinary collaborative teams to bring together different perspectives, areas of expertise, and methods of evaluation in the COVID-19 response.

negative: Controls of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in orthodontic practice ABSTRACT The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has attracted worldwide concerns because of its high person-to-person infectivity and lethality, and it was labeled as a pandemic as the rapid increase of confirmed cases in most areas around the world became evident. The SARS-CoV-2 is mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets and close contact. There are also evidences of transmission through aerosols and digestive tracts. Since orthodontic treatment involves large population who need routine return-visits, it was significantly affected and suspended because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the shutdown of the dental clinics and hospitals. Although the spread of COVID-19 has been effectively controlled in China and many areas have gradually resumed work and classes, orthodontic participants are still under high risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection. This is due to the asymptomatic carriers of SARS-CoV-2 or patients in the incubation period may cause the cross infection between orthodontic practitioners and patients. The close proximity between the practitioners and the patients, and the generation of droplets and aerosols that contain saliva and blood during treatment further increase the risks of transmission. In this review, we summarized the preventive strategies for controls of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to protect both staffs and patients during the orthodontic practice.

negative: Response to COVID-19 in Taiwan: Big Data Analytics, New Technology, and Proactive Testing.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and Pregnancy: Responding to a Rapidly Evolving Situation As the world confronts coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an illness caused by yet another emerging pathogen (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-CoV-2]), obstetric care providers are asking what this means for pregnant women. The global spread has been swift, and many key questions remain. The case-fatality rate for persons cared for in the United States and whether asymptomatic persons transmit the virus are examples of questions that need to be answered to inform public health control measures. There are also unanswered questions specific to pregnant women, such as whether pregnant women are more severely affected and whether intrauterine transmission occurs. Although guidelines for pregnant women from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have been rapidly developed based on the best available evidence, additional information is critically needed to inform key decisions, such as whether pregnant health care workers should receive special consideration, whether to temporarily separate infected mothers and their newborns, and whether it is safe for infected women to breastfeed. Some current recommendations are well supported, based largely on what we know from seasonal influenza: patients should avoid contact with ill persons, avoid touching their face, cover coughs and sneezes, wash hands frequently, disinfect contaminated surfaces, and stay home when sick. Prenatal clinics should ensure all pregnant women and their visitors are screened for fever and respiratory symptoms, and symptomatic women should be isolated from well women and required to wear a mask. As the situation with COVID-19 rapidly unfolds, it is critical that obstetricians keep up to date.

negative: A Real-Time PCR Assay for Bat SARS-Like Coronavirus Detection and Its Application to Italian Greater Horseshoe Bat Faecal Sample Surveys Bats are source of coronaviruses closely related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus. Numerous studies have been carried out to identify new bat viruses related to SARS-coronavirus (bat-SARS-like CoVs) using a reverse-transcribed-polymerase chain reaction assay. However, a qualitative PCR could underestimate the prevalence of infection, affecting the epidemiological evaluation of bats in viral ecology. In this work an SYBR Green-real time PCR assay was developed for diagnosing infection with SARS-related coronaviruses from bat guano and was applied as screening tool in a survey carried out on 45 greater horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) sampled in Italy in 2009. The assay showed high sensitivity and reproducibility. Its application on bats screening resulted in a prevalence of 42%. This method could be suitable as screening tool in epidemiological surveys about the presence of bat-SARS-like CoVs, consequently to obtain a more realistic scenario of the viral prevalence in the population.

negative: Fear, Access, and the Real-Time Estimation of Etiological Parameters for Outbreaks of Novel Pathogens Early analysis of outbreaks of novel pathogens to evaluate their likely public health impact depends on fitting predictive models to data gathered and updated in real-time. Both transmission rates and the critical threshold (i.e. the pathogen's 'reproductive number') are inferred by finding the values that provide the best model fit to reported case incidence. These models and inferred results are then the basic tools used for public health planning: how many people expected to be infected, at what scales of time and space, and whether potential intervention strategies impact disease transmission and spread. An underlying assumption, however, is that the ability to observe new cases is either constant, or at least constant relative to diagnostic test availability. We present a demonstration, discussion, and mathematical analysis of how this assumption of predictable observability in disease incidence can drastically impact model accuracy. We also demonstrate how to tailor estimations of these parameters to a few examples of different types of shifting influences acting on detection, depending on the likely sensitivity of surveillance systems to errors from sources such as clinical testing rates and differences in healthcare-seeking behavior from the public over time. Finally, we discuss the implications of these corrections for both historical and current outbreaks.

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV): animal to human interaction The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a novel enzootic betacoronavirus that was first described in September 2012. The clinical spectrum of MERS-CoV infection in humans ranges from an asymptomatic or mild respiratory illness to severe pneumonia and multi-organ failure; overall mortality is around 35.7%. Bats harbour several betacoronaviruses that are closely related to MERS-CoV but more research is needed to establish the relationship between bats and MERS-CoV. The seroprevalence of MERS-CoV antibodies is very high in dromedary camels in Eastern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. MERS-CoV RNA and viable virus have been isolated from dromedary camels, including some with respiratory symptoms. Furthermore, near-identical strains of MERS-CoV have been isolated from epidemiologically linked humans and camels, confirming inter-transmission, most probably from camels to humans. Though inter-human spread within health care settings is responsible for the majority of reported MERS-CoV cases, the virus is incapable at present of causing sustained human-to-human transmission. Clusters can be readily controlled with implementation of appropriate infection control procedures. Phylogenetic and sequencing data strongly suggest that MERS-CoV originated from bat ancestors after undergoing a recombination event in the spike protein, possibly in dromedary camels in Africa, before its exportation to the Arabian Peninsula along the camel trading routes. MERS-CoV serosurveys are needed to investigate possible unrecognized human infections in Africa. Amongst the important measures to control MERS-CoV spread are strict regulation of camel movement, regular herd screening and isolation of infected camels, use of personal protective equipment by camel handlers and enforcing rules banning all consumption of unpasteurized camel milk and urine.

negative: Clinical Characteristics and Outcome for Four SARS-CoV-2-infected Cancer Patients Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors Preliminary data suggest that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is associated with higher mortality among cancer patients, particularly in those on systemic therapy. It is unclear whether this applies to patients receiving immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). In this case series, 74 patients from a single institution with genitourinary (GU) cancer on ICI were followed up during a 12-wk period. During this period, 11 patients (15%) developed symptoms consistent with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and four (5%) tested positive. Two patients had metastatic urothelial cancer (treated with atezolizumab) and two had metastatic renal cancer (treated with ipilimumab and nivolumab). All had additional risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality and two received steroids within 1 mo of infection. Two patients developed symptoms requiring hospitalisation. All four are alive 32–45 d after their first symptoms and 28–38 d after testing positive. These patients all had multiple risk factors associated with severe COVID-19. These data suggest that the higher risk of COVID-19 death associated with systemic therapy in cancer may not apply to patients on ICIs. Assessment of COVID-19 severity in these patients can be complicated by the underlying cancer and its treatment.

negative: "The storm has arrived": the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on medical students In a few weeks, the global community has witnessed, and for some of us experienced first-hand, the human costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is incredible variability in how countries are choosing to thwart the disease's outbreak, sparking intense discussions around what it means to teach and learn in the era of COVID-19, and more specifically, the role medical students play in the midst of the pandemic. A multi-national and multi-institutional group made up of a dedicated medical student from Austria, passionate clinicians and educators from Switzerland, and a PhD scientist involved in Medical Education from Canada, have assembled to summarize the ingenious ways medical students around the world are contributing to emergency efforts. They argue that such efforts change COVID-19 from a "disruption" to medical students learning to something more tangible, more important, allowing students to become stakeholders in the expansion and delivery of healthcare.

negative: Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Disguise Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pandemic is currently one of the most influential topics as it not only impacts the field of medicine but most importantly, it affects the lives of many individuals throughout the world. We report an interesting 2019-nCoV case in a tertiary community hospital with the initial concern of acute pyelonephritis without respiratory symptoms that ultimately led to the quarantine of a number of healthcare providers. This case emphasizes the importance of radiological evidence in diagnosing 2019-nCoV in the setting of an initial atypical presentation. It also serves as an example of how healthcare providers may need to increase their suspicion for COVID-19 to ensure self-protection and prompt diagnosis in the era of an ongoing pandemic.

negative: Clinical Characteristics of Hospitalized Covid-19 Patients in New York City ABSTRACT Background: The coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic is a global public health crisis, with over 1.6 million cases and 95,000 deaths worldwide. Data are needed regarding the clinical course of hospitalized patients, particularly in the United States. Methods Demographic, clinical, and outcomes data for patients admitted to five Mount Sinai Health System hospitals with confirmed Covid-19 between February 27 and April 2, 2020 were identified through institutional electronic health records. We conducted a descriptive study of patients who had in-hospital mortality or were discharged alive. Results A total of 2,199 patients with Covid-19 were hospitalized during the study period. As of April 2nd, 1,121 (51%) patients remained hospitalized, and 1,078 (49%) completed their hospital course. Of the latter, the overall mortality was 29%, and 36% required intensive care. The median age was 65 years overall and 75 years in those who died. Pre-existing conditions were present in 65% of those who died and 46% of those discharged. In those who died, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 11.7%, D-dimer was 2.4 ug/ml, C-reactive protein was 162 mg/L, and procalcitonin was 0.44 ng/mL. In those discharged, the admission median lymphocyte percentage was 16.6%, D-dimer was 0.93 ug/ml, C-reactive protein was 79 mg/L, and procalcitonin was 0.09 ng/mL. Conclusions This is the largest and most diverse case series of hospitalized patients with Covid-19 in the United States to date. Requirement of intensive care and mortality were high. Patients who died typically had pre-existing conditions and severe perturbations in inflammatory markers.

negative: N95 Mask Decontamination using Standard Hospital Sterilization Technologies The response to the COVID19 epidemic is generating severe shortages of personal protective equipment around the world. In particular, the supply of N95 respirator masks has become severely depleted with supplies having to be rationed and health care workers having to use masks for prolonged periods in many countries. We sought to test the ability of 4 different decontamination methods including autoclave treatment, ethylene oxide gassing, ionized hydrogen peroxide fogging and vaporized hydrogen peroxide exposure to decontaminate 4 different N95 masks of experimental contamination with SARS-CoV-2 or vesicular stomatitis virus as a surrogate. In addition, we sought to determine whether masks would tolerate repeated cycles of decontamination while maintaining structural and functional integrity. We found that one cycle of treatment with all modalities was effective in decontamination and was associated with no structural or functional deterioration. Vaporized hydrogen peroxide treatment was tolerated to at least 5 cycles by masks. Most notably, standard autoclave treatment was associated with no loss of structural or functional integrity to a minimum of 10 cycles for the 3 pleated mask models. The molded N95 mask however tolerated only 1 cycle. This last finding may be of particular use to institutions globally due to the virtually universal accessibility of autoclaves in health care settings.

negative: Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with suspected COVID-19 admitted in Metro Manila, Philippines BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to almost every region and country in the world, leading to widespread travel restrictions and national lockdowns. Currently, there are limited epidemiological and clinical data on COVID-19 patients from low and middle-income countries. We conducted a retrospective single-center study of the first 100 individuals with suspected COVID-19 (between Jan. 25 and Mar. 29, 2020) admitted to San Lazaro Hospital (SLH), the national infectious diseases referral hospital in Manila, Philippines. RESULTS: Demographic data, travel history, clinical features, and outcomes were summarized and compared between COVID-19 confirmed and non-confirmed cases. The first two confirmed cases were Chinese nationals, admitted on Jan. 25. The third confirmed case was a Filipino, admitted on Mar. 8. Trends toward confirmed COVID-19 cases not reporting international travel and being admitted to SLH from the densely populated area of Manila city were observed during Mar. 8-29. All 42 of the 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases were adults, 40% were aged 60 years and above and 55% were male. Three were health workers. Among individuals with suspected COVID-19, confirmed cases were more likely to be older, Filipino, not report international travel history and have at least one underlying disease, particularly diabetes, report difficulty in breathing, and a longer duration of symptoms. In over 90% of non-COVID-19 cases, the alternative diagnosis was respiratory. Nine (21%) confirmed cases died. The median duration from symptoms onset to death was 11.5 (range: 8–18) days. CONCLUSIONS: Imported COVID-19 cases have reduced but local transmission persists and there is a trend toward cases being admitted to SLH from densely populated areas. This study highlights the difficulty in diagnosing COVID-19 on clinical grounds and the importance of diagnostic capacity in all settings. Difficulty of breathing was the only symptom associated with COVID-19 infection and should alert clinicians to the possibility of COVID-19. Clinical characteristics of confirmed COVID-19 cases and a hospital case fatality rate of 21% are comparable with other settings.

negative: ESTIMATING COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN HOSPITAL WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES Objective: We estimated that how many hospital workers in the United States (US) might get infected or die in the COVID-19 pandemic. We also estimated the impact of personal protective equipment (PPE) and age restrictions on these estimates. Methods: Our secondary analyses estimated hospital worker infections in the US based on health worker infection and death rates per 100 deaths from COVID-19 in Hubei and Italy. We used Monte Carlo simulations to compute point estimates with 95% confidence intervals for hospital worker infections in the US based on the two scenarios. We computed potential decrease in infections if the PPE were available only to those involved in direct care of COVID-19 patients (~ 30%) and if workers aged ≥ 60 years are restricted from patient care. Estimates were adjusted for hospital workers per bed in the US compared to China and Italy. Results: The hospital worker infections per 100 deaths were 108.2 in Hubei and 94.1 in Italy. Based on Hubei scenario, we estimated that about 53,640 US hospital workers (95% CI: 43,160 to 62,251) might get infected from COVID-19. The Italian scenario suggested 53,097 US hospital worker (95% CI: 37,133 to 69,003) might get infected during the pandemic. Availability of PPE to high-risk workers could reduce counts to 28,100 (95% CI: 23,048 to 33,242) considering Hubei and to 28,354 (95% CI: 19,829 to 36,848) considering Italy. Restricting hospital workers aged ≥ 60 years from direct patient care reduced counts to 1,985 (95% CI: 1,627 to 2,347) considering Hubei and to 2,002 (95% CI: 1,400 to 2,602) considering the Italian scenario. Conclusion: We estimated significant burden of illness due to COVID-19 if no strategies are adopted. Making PPE available to all hospital workers and reducing exposure of hospital workers above the age of 60 could have significant reductions in hospital worker infections.

negative: Assessing the risks of"infodemics"in response to COVID-19 epidemics Our society is built on a complex web of interdependencies whose effects become manifest during extraordinary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, with shocks in one system propagating to the others to an exceptional extent. We analyzed more than 100 millions Twitter messages posted worldwide in 64 languages during the epidemic emergency due to SARS-CoV-2 and classified the reliability of news diffused. We found that waves of unreliable and low-quality information anticipate the epidemic ones, exposing entire countries to irrational social behavior and serious threats for public health. When the epidemics hit the same area, reliable information is quickly inoculated, like antibodies, and the system shifts focus towards certified informational sources. Contrary to mainstream beliefs, we show that human response to falsehood exhibits early-warning signals that might be mitigated with adequate communication strategies.

negative: Detection of human bocavirus in Asturias, Northern Spain

negative: First synthesis of 4-(arylsulfonyl)phenols by regioselective [3+3] cyclocondensations of 1,3-bis(silyloxy)-1,3-butadienes with 2-arylsulfonyl-3-ethoxy-2-en-1-ones Abstract The formal [3+3] cyclization of 1,3-bis(silyloxy)-1,3-butadienes with readily available 2-arylsulfonyl-3-ethoxy-2-en-1-ones resulted in regioselective formation of 4-(arylsulfonyl)phenols.

negative: Viruses in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Whereas viruses are not usually considered to be important causes of ICU admission this review has demonstrated this perception to be incorrect. Viruses and their manifestations differ from continent to continent and hemisphere to hemisphere and it is essential that the intensivist be familiar with diagnosis and management of these ubiquitous organisms.

negative: The Risk of Diabetes on Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Retrospective Cohort Study BACKGROUND: To determine the role of diabetes mellitus (DM) in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we explored the clinical characteristics of patients with DM and compared risk factors such as age, glycemic control, and medications to those without DM. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 117 confirmed patients with COVID-19 which conducted at a tertiary hospital in Daegu, South Korea. The primary outcome was defined as the severe and critical outcome (SCO), of which the composite outcomes of acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, intensive care unit care, and 28-day mortality. We analyzed what clinical features and glycemic control-related factors affect the prognosis of COVID-19 in the DM group. RESULTS: After exclusion, 110 participants were finally included. DM patients (n=29) was older, and showed higher blood pressure compared to non-DM patients. DM group showed higher levels of inflammation-related biomarkers and severity score, and highly progressed to SCO. After adjustment with other risk factors, DM increased the risk of SCO (odds ratio [OR], 10.771; P<0.001). Among the DM patients, SCO was more prevalent in elderly patients of ≥70 years old and age was an independent risk factor for SCO in patients with DM (OR, 1.175; P=0.014), while glycemic control was not. The use of medication did not affect the SCO, but the renin-angiotensin system inhibitors showed protective effects against acute cardiac injury (OR, 0.048; P=0.045). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 patients with DM had higher severity and resulted in SCO. Intensive and aggressive monitoring of COVID-19 clinical outcomes in DM group, especially in elderly patients is warranted.

negative: The population health approach: A qualitative study of conceptual and operational definitions for leaders in Canadian healthcare OBJECTIVES: The population health approach is increasingly recognized for its role in health system reform; however, its broad scope and definition have been criticized for being a barrier to clear communication. This qualitative study examined the way senior healthcare leaders in Canada conceptualize and operationalize the population health approach in planning and decision-making. FINDINGS: Core elements of the population health approach included focusing on health and wellness rather than illness, taking a population rather than individual orientation, understanding needs and solutions through community outreach, addressing health disparities/health in vulnerable groups, addressing the social determinants of health and inter-sectoral action and partnerships. CONCLUSION: The population health approach is increasingly recognized for its role in reducing healthcare demand and contributing to health system sustainability. This study demonstrated the growing need to clarify terminology among multiform partners to establish a foundation for future healthcare integration and inter-sectoral action.

negative: 3CLpro inhibitors as a potential therapeutic option for COVID-19: Available evidence and ongoing clinical trials

negative: The role of afferent pulmonary innervation in poor prognosis of acute respiratory distress syndrome in COVID-19 patients and proposed use of resiniferatoxin (RTX) to improve patient outcomes in advanced disease state: A review Abstract Acute respiratory distress is one of the major causes of mortality associated with COVID-19 disease. Many patients will require intensive care with ventilatory support. Despite progress and best efforts, the mortality rates projected remain high. Historical data outlook points towards 80% expected fatality for patients progressing to advanced pulmonary disease, even when hospitalized in the intensive care unit. This is particularly true among the patient population over 65. Novel life-saving strategies are desperately needed to mitigate the high mortality that will be associated with the late stage SARS-CoV-2 viral infection associated with the fatal respiratory distress. We hypothesize that the morbidity, severity of the disease, and underlying physiological events leading to mortality are closely linked to the TRPV1 expressing neuronal system (afferent/efferent neurons) in the lungs. TRPV1 expressing cells are responsible for pain transmission, inflammation and immunomodulation throughout the entire pulmonary system and are modulating the processes associated with localized cytokine release (storm) and overall rapid disease progression. We suggest that therapeutic approaches targeting TRPV1 containing nerve fibers in the lungs will modulate the inflammatory and immune signal activity, leading to reduced mortality and better overall outcomes. We also propose to further explore the use of resiniferatoxin (RTX), an ultra-potent TRPV1 agonist currently in clinical trials for cancer and osteoarthritis pain, as a possible ablating agent of TRPV1 positive pulmonary pathways in patients with advanced COVID-19 disease.

negative: One health, multiple challenges: The inter-species transmission of influenza A virus Influenza A viruses are amongst the most challenging viruses that threaten both human and animal health. Influenza A viruses are unique in many ways. Firstly, they are unique in the diversity of host species that they infect. This includes waterfowl (the original reservoir), terrestrial and aquatic poultry, swine, humans, horses, dog, cats, whales, seals and several other mammalian species. Secondly, they are unique in their capacity to evolve and adapt, following crossing the species barrier, in order to replicate and spread to other individuals within the new species. Finally, they are unique in the frequency of inter-species transmission events that occur. Indeed, the consequences of novel influenza virus strain in an immunologically naïve population can be devastating. The problems that influenza A viruses present for human and animal health are numerous. For example, influenza A viruses in humans represent a major economic and disease burden, whilst the poultry industry has suffered colossal damage due to repeated outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of influenza A viruses by shedding light on interspecies virus transmission and summarising the current knowledge regarding how influenza viruses can adapt to a new host.

negative: Afectación clínica y sintomatológica en pacientes mayores de 65 años por COVID-19

negative: Emergency Triage of Highly Infectious Diseases and Bioterrorism Emergency medical services are a key element in health systems for the evaluation and treatment of patients exposed to highly infectious diseases or bioterrorism agents. Triage and early identification at any point of care can have a significant impact on the prevention and management of these diseases. This chapter reviews triage practices, including early isolation and decontamination, of highly infectious diseases and bioterrorism agents at different health system levels.

negative: Coronavirus latest: global infections pass 100,000.

negative: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study Background Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been critical to support evidence-based policymaking during the early stages of the epidemic. Methods We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, including the introduction of school closures, social distancing, shielding of elderly groups, self-isolation of symptomatic cases, and extreme "lockdown"-type restrictions. We simulated different durations of interventions and triggers for introduction, as well as combinations of interventions. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (intensive care unit, ICU) treatment, and deaths. Findings We found that mitigation measures aimed at reducing transmission would likely have decreased the reproduction number, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding NHS availability. To keep ICU bed demand below capacity in the model, more extreme restrictions were necessary. In a scenario where "lockdown"-type interventions were put in place to reduce transmission, these interventions would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year in order to prevent healthcare demand exceeding availability. Interpretation The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are likely required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs.

negative: Critically ill patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection in Canada. CONTEXT Between March and July 2009, the largest number of confirmed cases of 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection occurred in North America. OBJECTIVE To describe characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of critically ill patients in Canada with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS A prospective observational study of 168 critically ill patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection in 38 adult and pediatric intensive care units (ICUs) in Canada between April 16 and August 12, 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome measures were 28-day and 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included frequency and duration of mechanical ventilation and duration of ICU stay. RESULTS Critical illness occurred in 215 patients with confirmed (n = 162), probable (n = 6), or suspected (n = 47) community-acquired 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection. Among the 168 patients with confirmed or probable 2009 influenza A(H1N1), the mean (SD) age was 32.3 (21.4) years; 113 were female (67.3%) and 50 were children (29.8%). Overall mortality among critically ill patients at 28 days was 14.3% (95% confidence interval, 9.5%-20.7%). There were 43 patients who were aboriginal Canadians (25.6%). The median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was 4 days (interquartile range [IQR], 2-7 days) and from hospitalization to ICU admission was 1 day (IQR, 0-2 days). Shock and nonpulmonary acute organ dysfunction was common (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment mean [SD] score of 6.8 [3.6] on day 1). Neuraminidase inhibitors were administered to 152 patients (90.5%). All patients were severely hypoxemic (mean [SD] ratio of Pao(2) to fraction of inspired oxygen [Fio(2)] of 147 [128] mm Hg) at ICU admission. Mechanical ventilation was received by 136 patients (81.0%). The median duration of ventilation was 12 days (IQR, 6-20 days) and ICU stay was 12 days (IQR, 5-20 days). Lung rescue therapies included neuromuscular blockade (28% of patients), inhaled nitric oxide (13.7%), high-frequency oscillatory ventilation (11.9%), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (4.2%), and prone positioning ventilation (3.0%). Overall mortality among critically ill patients at 90 days was 17.3% (95% confidence interval, 12.0%-24.0%; n = 29). CONCLUSION Critical illness due to 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in Canada occurred rapidly after hospital admission, often in young adults, and was associated with severe hypoxemia, multisystem organ failure, a requirement for prolonged mechanical ventilation, and the frequent use of rescue therapies.

negative: Suspected COVID-19 in primary care: how GP records contribute to understanding differences in prevalence by ethnicity. Abstract Background The first wave of the London COVID-19 epidemic peaked in April 2020. Attention initially focussed on severe presentations, intensive care capacity, and the timely supply of equipment. General practice has seen a rapid take up of technology to allow virtual consultations, enabling the management of mild and moderate community cases. Aim To quantify the prevalence and time-course of suspected COVID-19 presenting to general practices during the London epidemic. To report disease prevalence by ethnic group, and explore how far differences by ethnicity can be explained by data in the electronic health record (EHR). Design and Setting Cross-sectional study using anonymised data from the primary care records of 1.3 million people registered with 157 practices in four adjacent east London clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). The study area includes 48% of people from ethnic minorities and is in the top decile of social deprivation in England. Method Suspected COVID-19 cases were identified using SNOMED codes. Explanatory variables included age, gender, self-reported ethnicity and measures of social deprivation. Clinical factors included 16 long-term conditions, latest body mass index and smoking status. Results There were 8,985 suspected COVID-19 cases. Ethnicity recording was 78% complete. Univariate analysis showed a two-fold increase in odds of infection for South Asian and Black adults compared to White. In a fully adjusted analysis, including clinical factors, the odds were: South Asian OR 1.93 (95% CI = 1.83 to 2.04) Black OR 1.47 (95% CI 1.38 to 1.57) Conclusions Using data in GP records Black and south Asian ethnicity remain as predictors of community cases of COVID-19, with levels of risk similar to hospital admission cases. Further understanding of these differences requires social and occupational data.

negative: Neurological manifestations of COVID-19 and other coronavirus infections: A systematic review BACKGROUND: Increasing research reports neurological manifestations of COVID-19 patients. SARS-CoV-2 shares homology with other human coronaviruses that have also had nervous system involvement. OBJECTIVE: To review the neurological aspects of SARS-cov2 and other coronavirus, including transmission pathways, mechanisms of invasion into the nervous system, and mechanisms of neurological disease. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of articles in PubMed, SCOPUS and EMBASE data bases. Reviewed evidence is presented in sections of this manuscript which includes pathogenesis, neuro-invasion, encephalitis, Guillain-Barré, ADEM, multiple sclerosis, polyneuropathy, and cerebrovascular disease. RESULTS: A total 67 studies were included in the final analysis of experimental studies, case reports, series of cases, cohort studies, and systematic reviews related to neurological manifestations of SARS- CoV-2 and other human coronavirus infections. The SARS-CoV-2 receptor is expressed in the nervous system. Common reported symptoms included hyposmia, headaches, weakness, altered consciousness. Encephalitis, demyelination, neuropathy, and stroke have been associated with COVID-19. Infection through the cribriform plate and olfactory bulb and dissemination through trans-synaptic transfer are some of the mechanisms proposed. Invasion of the medullary cardiorespiratory center by SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the refractory respiratory failure observed in critically-ill COVID-19 patients. CONCLUSION: An increasing number of reports of COVID-19 patients with neurological disorders add to emergent experimental models with neuro-invasion as a reasonable concern that SARS-CoV-2 is a new neuropathogen. How it may cause acute and chronic neurologic disorders needs to be clarified in future research.

negative: Leveraging polymerase chain reaction technique (GeneXpert) to upscaling testing capacity for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) in Nigeria: a game changer

negative: Description of a Hospital Outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome in a Large Tertiary Care Hospital in Saudi Arabia BACKGROUND: Since the first isolation of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in Saudi Arabia in 2012, sporadic cases, clusters, and sometimes large outbreaks have been reported. OBJECTIVE: To describe the recent (2015) MERS-CoV outbreak at a large tertiary care hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. METHODS: We conducted an epidemiologic outbreak investigation, including case finding and contact tracing and screening. MERS-CoV cases were categorized as suspected, probable, and confirmed. A confirmed case was defined as positive reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test for MERS-CoV. RESULTS: Of the 130 suspected cases, 81 (62%) were confirmed and 49 (38%) were probable. These included 87 patients (67%) and 43 healthcare workers (33%). Older age (mean [SD], 64.4 [18.3] vs 40.1 [11.3] years, P<.001), symptoms (97% vs 58%, P<.001), and comorbidity (99% vs 42%, P<.001) were more common in patients than healthcare workers. Almost all patients (97%) were hospitalized whereas most healthcare workers (72%) were home isolated. Among 96 hospitalized cases, 63 (66%) required intensive care unit management and 60 (63%) required mechanical ventilation. Among all 130 cases, 51 (39%) died; all were patients (51 [59%]) with no deaths among healthcare workers. More than half (54%) of infections were believed to be caught at the emergency department. Strict infection control measures, including isolation and closure of the emergency department, were implemented to interrupt the chain of transmission and end the outbreak. CONCLUSION: MERS-CoV remains a major healthcare threat. Early recognition of cases and rapid implementation of infection control measures are necessary. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2016;1–9

negative: Economic thoughts on the potential implications of COVID‐19 on the Canadian dairy and poultry sectors The dumping of milk, the offering of hospitality size goods in grocery stores, and the closure of processing facilities are examples of the disruptions caused by the pandemic to the dairy, poultry, and egg sectors. These supply management sectors, however, are more resilient to the impacts of COVID‐19 than other sectors as producers are generally more financially stable, losses are pooled, and production/marketing efforts are coordinated.

negative: The effectiveness of quarantine and isolation determine the trend of the COVID-19 epidemics in the final phase of the current outbreak in China Abstract Objectives Since January 23rd 2020, stringent measures for controlling the novel coronavirus epidemics have been gradually enforced and strengthened in mainland China. The detection and diagnosis have been improved as well. However, the daily reported cases staying in a high level make the epidemics trend prediction difficult. Methods Since the traditional SEIR model does not evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies, a novel model in line with the current epidemics process and control measures was proposed, utilizing multisource datasets including cumulative number of reported, death, quarantined and suspected cases. Results Results show that the trend of the epidemics mainly depends on quarantined and suspected cases. The predicted cumulative numbers of quarantined and suspected cases nearly reached static states and their inflection points have already been achieved, with the epidemics peak coming soon. The estimated effective reproduction numbers using model-free and model-based methods are decreasing, as well as new infections, while new reported cases are increasing. Most infected cases have been quarantined or put in suspected class, which has been ignored in existing models. Conclusions The uncertainty analyses reveal that the epidemics is still uncertain and it is important to continue enhancing the quarantine and isolation strategy and improving the detection rate in mainland China.

negative: Cardiovascular Clinical Trials in a Pandemic: Immediate Implications of Coronavirus Disease 2019 The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019, and by 24 April 2020, it had affected >2.73 million people in 185 countries and caused >192,000 deaths. Despite diverse societal measures to reduce transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, such as implementing social distancing, quarantine, curfews and total lockdowns, its control remains challenging. Healthcare practitioners are at the frontline of defence against the virus, with increasing institutional and governmental supports. Nevertheless, new or ongoing clinical trials, not related to the disease itself, remain important for the development of new therapies, and require interactions among patients, clinicians and research personnel, which is challenging, given isolation measures. In this article, the authors summarise the acute effects and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on current cardiovascular trials.

negative: Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. METHODS: We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8-51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10-50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. FINDINGS: Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8-18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253â500 additional child deaths and 12â200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3-51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1â157â000 additional child deaths and 56â700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8-44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3-38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18-23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.

negative: Dr. Wu Lien Teh, plague fighter and father of the Chinese public health system

negative: Radiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study Summary Background A cluster of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were successively reported in Wuhan, China. We aimed to describe the CT findings across different timepoints throughout the disease course. Methods Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (confirmed by next-generation sequencing or RT-PCR) who were admitted to one of two hospitals in Wuhan and who underwent serial chest CT scans were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were grouped on the basis of the interval between symptom onset and the first CT scan: group 1 (subclinical patients; scans done before symptom onset), group 2 (scans done ≤1 week after symptom onset), group 3 (>1 week to 2 weeks), and group 4 (>2 weeks to 3 weeks). Imaging features and their distribution were analysed and compared across the four groups. Findings 81 patients admitted to hospital between Dec 20, 2019, and Jan 23, 2020, were retrospectively enrolled. The cohort included 42 (52%) men and 39 (48%) women, and the mean age was 49·5 years (SD 11·0). The mean number of involved lung segments was 10·5 (SD 6·4) overall, 2·8 (3·3) in group 1, 11·1 (5·4) in group 2, 13·0 (5·7) in group 3, and 12·1 (5·9) in group 4. The predominant pattern of abnormality observed was bilateral (64 [79%] patients), peripheral (44 [54%]), ill-defined (66 [81%]), and ground-glass opacification (53 [65%]), mainly involving the right lower lobes (225 [27%] of 849 affected segments). In group 1 (n=15), the predominant pattern was unilateral (nine [60%]) and multifocal (eight [53%]) ground-glass opacities (14 [93%]). Lesions quickly evolved to bilateral (19 [90%]), diffuse (11 [52%]) ground-glass opacity predominance (17 [81%]) in group 2 (n=21). Thereafter, the prevalence of ground-glass opacities continued to decrease (17 [57%] of 30 patients in group 3, and five [33%] of 15 in group 4), and consolidation and mixed patterns became more frequent (12 [40%] in group 3, eight [53%] in group 4). Interpretation COVID-19 pneumonia manifests with chest CT imaging abnormalities, even in asymptomatic patients, with rapid evolution from focal unilateral to diffuse bilateral ground-glass opacities that progressed to or co-existed with consolidations within 1–3 weeks. Combining assessment of imaging features with clinical and laboratory findings could facilitate early diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. Funding None.

negative: Explaining national differences in the mortality of Covid-19: individual patient simulation model to investigate the effects of testing policy and other factors on apparent mortality. There has been extensive speculation on the apparent differences in mortality between countries reporting on the confirmed cases and deaths due to Covid-19. A number of explanations have been suggested, but there is no clear evidence about how apparent fatality rates may be expected to vary with the different testing regimes, admission policies and other variables. An individual patient simulation model was developed to address this question. Parameters and sensitivity analysis based upon recent international data sources for Covid-19 and results were averaged over 100 iterations for a simulated cohort of over 500,000 patients. Different testing regimes for Covid-19 were considered; testing admitted patients only, various rates of community testing of symptomatic cases and active contact-tracing and screening. In the base case analysis, apparent mortality ranged from 10.5% under a policy of testing only admitted patients to 0.4% with intensive contact tracing and community testing. These findings were sensitive to assumptions regarding admission rates and the rate of spread, with more selective admission policies and suppression of spread increasing the apparent mortality and the potential for apparent mortality rates to exceed 18% under some circumstances. Under all scenarios the proportion of patients tested in the community had the greatest impact on apparent mortality. Whilst differences in mortality due to health service and demographic factors cannot be excluded, the current international differences in reported mortality are all consistent with differences in practice regarding screening, community testing and admission policies.

negative: Day Level Forecasting for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Spread: Analysis, Modeling and Recommendations In mid of March 2020, Coronaviruses such as COVID-19 is declared as an international epidemic. More than 125000 confirmed cases and 4,607 death cases have been recorded around more than 118 countries. Unfortunately, a coronavirus vaccine is expected to take at least 18 months if it works at all. Moreover, COVID -19 epidemics can mutate into a more aggressive form. Day level information about the COVID -19 spread is crucial to measure the behavior of this new virus globally. Therefore, this study presents a comparison of day level forecasting models on COVID-19 affected cases using time series models and mathematical formulation. The forecasting models and data strongly suggest that the number of coronavirus cases grows exponentially in countries that do not mandate quarantines, restrictions on travel and public gatherings, and closing of schools, universities, and workplaces (Social Distancing).

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) associated coagulopathy and its impact on outcomes in Shenzhen, China: A retrospective cohort study Background: Early detection of suspected critical patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is very important for the treatment of patients. This study aimed to investigate the role of COVID-19 associated coagulopathy (CAC) to preview and triage. Methods and Results: A cohort study was designed from government designated COVID-19 treatment center. CAC was defined as International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) score ≥2. Data from 117 patients COVID-19 were reviewed on admission. The primary and secondary outcomes were admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU), the use of mechanical ventilation, vital organ dysfunction, discharges of days 14, 21 and 28 from admission and hospital mortality. Among them, admission to ICU was increased progressively from 16.1% in patients with non-CAC to 42.6% in patients with CAC (P < 0.01). Likely, invasive ventilation and noninvasive ventilation were increased from 1.8%, 21.4% in patients with non-CAC to 21.3%, 52.5% in patients with CAC, respectively (P < 0.01). The incidences of acute hepatic injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome in non-CAC and CAC were 28.6% vs. 62.3%, 8.9% vs. 27.9%, respectively (P < 0.01). The discharges of days 14, 21 and 28 from admission were more in non-CAC than those of CAC (P < 0.05). Multiple logistic regression results showed that ISTH score ≥2 was obviously associated with the admission to ICU (OR 4.07, 95% CI 1.47–11.25 P = 0.007) and the use of mechanical ventilation (OR 5.54, 95% CI 2.01–15.28 P = 0.001) in patients with COVID-19. Conclusion: All results show ISTH score ≥2 is an important indicator to preview and triage for COVID-19 patients.

negative: 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: A prospective cohort study Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Forty-eight (20.6 %) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1 %) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7 % (95 % CI 14.6-24.9 %) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95 % CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95 % CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95 % CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95 % CI 1.02-1.35 per 50 mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95 % CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20 %. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

negative: CEPI: Driving Progress Toward Epidemic Preparedness and Response The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) was formed in the aftermath of the 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak in west Africa to support the development of vaccines that could improve the world’s preparedness against outbreaks of epidemic infectious diseases. Since its launch in 2017, CEPI has mobilized more than US$750 million to support its mission to develop vaccines against agents such as Lassa virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, and Nipah virus, as well as several rapid-response vaccine platforms to accelerate response times to unexpected epidemic threats. CEPI has also played a leading role in fostering institutional partnerships between public- and private-sector organizations to optimize allocation of resources for vaccine development against its priority pathogens. CEPI’s priorities include diversification of its current vaccine research and development investment portfolio to include additional pathogens, such as Rift Valley fever and chikungunya; establishment of technical and regulatory pathways for vaccine development across CEPI’s portfolio; development of sustainable manufacturing solutions for vaccine candidates nearing completion of safety and immunogenicity testing in humans; and creation of investigational stockpiles of its vaccine candidates for use in emergency situations. This commentary provides an overview of the global health challenges CEPI was established to address and its achievements to date, and indicates priorities for funding and coordination in the coming years.

negative: Chapter 3: The 2003 SARS Outbreak in Canada: Legal and Ethical Lessons About the Use of Quarantine The 2003 global outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) was an abrupt reminder that infectious diseases pose a continuing threat to human health. In 1967, U.S. Surgeon General William H. Stewart declared “it was time to close the book on infectious diseases” (Garrett, 1994, citing W.H. Stewart, “A Mandate for State Action,” presented at the Association of State and Territorial Health Officers, Washington, DC, December 4, 1967). In the latter half of the twentieth century, many shared this bold view that medical science had vanquished infectious disease. As a result, public health struggled to remain relevant in the face of advances in pharmaceuticals, surgery, genetics and other areas that were becoming increasingly dominant in the quest to extend and enhance human life. SARS forced many to rethink the significance of public health and the crisis, though relatively short-lived, (for commentary on the disparities between the responses to HIV and SARS, see e.g. Altman (2003)) underscored the need to rebuild public health capacity that had been allowed to slip down the health system priority list.

negative: Characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and death in the first 9,519 cases with a positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark: A nationwide cohort Objective To provide population-level knowledge on individuals at high risk of severe and fatal coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in order to inform targeted protection strategies in the general population and appropriate triage of hospital contacts. Design, Setting, and Participants Nationwide population-based cohort of all 228.677 consecutive Danish individuals tested (positive or negative) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA from the identification of the first COVID-19 case on February 27th, 2020 until April 30th, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures We examined characteristics and predictors of inpatient hospitalization versus community-management, and death versus survival, adjusted for age-, sex- and number of comorbidities. Results We identified 9,519 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive cases of whom 78% were community-managed, 22% were hospitalized (3.2% at an intensive care unit) and 5.5% had died within 30 days. Median age varied from 45 years (interquartile range (IQR) 31-57) among community-managed cases to 82 years (IQR 75-89) among those who died. Age was a strong predictor of fatal disease (odds ratio (OR) 14 for 70-79-year old, OR 26 for 80-89-year old, and OR 82 for cases older than 90 years, when compared to 50-59-year old and adjusted for sex and number of comorbidities). Similarly, the number of comorbidities was strongly associated with fatal disease (OR 5.2, for cases with [≥]4 comorbidities versus no comorbidities), and 82% of fatal cases had at least 2 comorbidities. A wide range of major chronic diseases were associated with hospitalization with ORs ranging from 1.3-1.4 (e.g. stroke, ischemic heart disease) to 2.2-2.7 (e.g. heart failure, hospital-diagnosed kidney disease, chronic liver disease). Similarly, chronic diseases were associated with mortality with ORs ranging from 1.2-1.3 (e.g. ischemic heart disease, hypertension) to 2.4-2.7 (e.g. major psychiatric disorder, organ transplantation). In the absence of comorbidities, mortality was relatively low (5% or less) in persons aged up to 80 years. Conclusions and Relevance In this first nationwide population-based study, increasing age and number of comorbidities were strongly associated with hospitalization requirement and death in COVID-19. In the absence of comorbidities, the mortality was, however, lowest until the age of 80 years. These results may help in accurate identification, triage and protection of high-risk groups in general populations, i.e. when reopening societies.

negative: Perspectives for the use of therapeutic Botulinum toxin as a multifaceted candidate drug to attenuate COVID-19 Abstract The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) resulting from a distinctive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) continues to evolve in many countries and pose life-threatening clinical issues to global public health. While the lungs are the primary target for the SARS-CoV-2-mediated pathological consequence, SARS-CoV-2 appear to invade the brain and cause neurological deficits. In the later stage, COVID-19 can progress to pneumonia, acute respiratory failure, neurological deficits and multi-organ dysfunctions leading to death. Though a significant portion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals has been recovering from pathological symptoms, the impact of the COVID-19 on the structural and functional properties of the lungs, heart, brain and other organs at the post-recovery state remains unknown. Presently, there is an urgent need for a remedial measure to combat this devastating COVID-19. Botulinum toxins (BoNTs) are potent neurotoxins that can induce paralysis of muscle and acute respiratory arrest in human. However, a mild dose of the purified form of BoNT has been known to attenuate chronic cough, dyspnoea, pneumonia, acute respiratory failure, abnormal circulation, cardiac defects and various neurological deficits that have been recognised as the prominent clinical symptoms of COVID-19. Considering the fact, this review article provides 1) an overview on the SARS-CoV-2 mediated pathological impact on the lungs, heart and brain, 2) signifies the therapeutic uses of BoNTs against pulmonary failure, cardiac arrest and neurological deficits, and 3) emphasize the rationality for the possible use of BoNT to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and manage COVID-19.

negative: 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases BACKGROUND: Data on patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) who have had 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) are needed. AIMS: To report the clinical characteristics, including gastrointestinal symptoms, of COVID-19 in IBD patients, and to assess the risk of COVID-19 in IBD. METHODS: This case series included consecutive IBD patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Age-adjusted cumulative incidences were compared with the general population in the Madrid region. RESULTS: Through April 8, 12 of 1918 IBD patients were diagnosed with COVID-19. The average age was 52 years, 75% of the patients were female and 58.3% had Crohn's disease. Seven patients (58%) were on maintenance treatment with immunomodulators/biologics, of these four with combined therapy (33%). Eight patients (66%) required hospitalisation (one intensive care unit admission, and two deaths), and four patients were isolated at home. Nine patients had diarrhoea ranging between 4 and 10 loose stools per day (mean 5.4, SD 1.6). In five patients (42%) diarrhoea was a presenting symptom. In two patients, diarrhoea was the only symptom at debut. Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was 6.2 per 1000 IBD patients. IBD patients had a lower adjusted incidence ratio of COVID-19 (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.70-0.77; P < 0.001), and a similar associated mortality ratio (OR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.84-1.06; P = 0.36), compared with the general population. CONCLUSIONS: IBD patients do not have an increased risk of COVID-19 and associated mortality compared with the general population. In many IBD patients, diarrhoea was a presenting symptom, and sometimes, was the only symptom at onset of COVID-19.

negative: The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society. In contrast, the benefits of these policies, in the form of infections that did not occur, cannot be directly observed and are currently understood through process-based simulations. Here, we compile new data on 1,659 local, regional, and national anti-contagion policies recently deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, and the United States (US). We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of any policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 42% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies collectively have had significant effects slowing this growth. Our results suggest that similar policies may have different impacts on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages now deployed are achieving large, beneficial, and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that, to date, current policies have already prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million infections across these six countries. These findings may help inform whether or when these ongoing policies should be lifted or intensified, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported.

negative: Emergence of Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV: Need for Rapid Vaccine and Biologics Development Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is an emerging pathogen that was first identified in Wuhan, China in late December 2019. This virus is responsible for the ongoing outbreak that causes severe respiratory illness and pneumonia-like infection in humans. Due to the increasing number of cases in China and outside China, the WHO declared coronavirus as a global health emergency. Nearly 35,000 cases were reported and at least 24 other countries or territories have reported coronavirus cases as early on as February. Inter-human transmission was reported in a few countries, including the United States. Neither an effective anti-viral nor a vaccine is currently available to treat this infection. As the virus is a newly emerging pathogen, many questions remain unanswered regarding the virus’s reservoirs, pathogenesis, transmissibility, and much more is unknown. The collaborative efforts of researchers are needed to fill the knowledge gaps about this new virus, to develop the proper diagnostic tools, and effective treatment to combat this infection. Recent advancements in plant biotechnology proved that plants have the ability to produce vaccines or biopharmaceuticals rapidly in a short time. In this review, the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China, the need for rapid vaccine development, and the potential of a plant system for biopharmaceutical development are discussed.

negative: The Development of One Health Approaches in the Western Pacific The Western Pacific Region, the most populous of six regional groupings of World Health Organization (WHO) member states, has seen the emergence of a series of novel zoonotic infections in the last decade. This has focused attention on addressing underlying risks and vulnerabilities in the complex interactions among people, animals, and environments as a better way to counter emerging diseases. This “One Health” approach is pertinent to the region because, it is a “hot spot” for the emergence of novel diseases from wildlife, because unexpected epidemics of re-emerging zoonotic diseases have caused morbidity and mortality in urban and periurban communities, and because it remains a sanctuary for well-known zoonotic infections. In this chapter, selected regional, multicountry, and national steps to operationalize One Health are discussed. While the region is well positioned to exploit the opportunities that have come with outbreaks of new diseases, the array of disconnected and overlapping initiatives from various consortia, donors, research institutes, and UN agencies is to some extent impeding the development of better ways of managing both new and old infections for the local, regional, and global good.

negative: Age is just a number – and so is frailty: Strategies to inform resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: Challenges and opportunities for graduate students in public health during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: Canada and global health: accelerate leadership now

negative: Psychiatric Symptoms Related to the COVID-19 Pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic and the consequential societal changes are likely to have major health consequences way beyond those caused by the virus infection. One of the medical fields that may experience significant consequences of the pandemic is that of psychiatry. Importantly, individuals who already live with mental disorders may be particularly vulnerable to the psychological stress associated with the pandemic. However, data on how the COVID-19 pandemic affects this group of people is largely absent from the literature. Here, we report data from a quality development project conducted at the psychiatric services of the Central Denmark Region (CDR), which has a catchment area of approximately 1.3 million people covered by five psychiatric hospitals providing inpatient and outpatient treatment of all types of mental disorders. Based on a manual screening of all clinical notes from the period from February 1st to March 23rd 2020 that contained at least one of the following words: corona, COVID, virus, epidemic, pandemic, and contaminate/contamination (including compound words), we found 1357 notes from 918 adult patients that described pandemic-related psychopathology (symptoms that appeared to be caused/deteriorated by the pandemic and/or its societal consequences). To our knowledge, this is the first investigation of COVID-19 pandemic-related psychopathology from a large psychiatric treatment setting. The results clearly suggest that this phenomenon exists among individuals with mental illness. However, as the data from this investigation stems from standard clinical practice where the patients were not systematically assessed for pandemic-related psychopathology, we cannot speak to its overall prevalence. Nevertheless, we believe that our findings underline the necessity of taking urgent action to mitigate the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on patients with mental disorders. A low-cost intervention would be to simply discuss the ongoing pandemic and its societal consequences with patients seeking care in psychiatric settings - as this may lead to relief of pandemic-related symptoms via general comforting, and clarification of misunderstandings/false beliefs regarding the pandemic.

negative: Being a front-line dentist during the Covid-19 pandemic: a literature review Coronavirus is an enveloped virus with positive-sense single-stranded RNA. Coronavirus infection in humans mainly affects the upper respiratory tract and to a lesser extent the gastrointestinal tract. Clinical symptoms of coronavirus infections can range from relatively mild (similar to the common cold) to severe (bronchitis, pneumonia, and renal involvement). The disease caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was called Covid-19 by the World Health Organization in February 2020. Face-to-face communication and consistent exposure to body fluids such as blood and saliva predispose dental care workers at serious risk for 2019-nCoV infection. As demonstrated by the recent coronavirus outbreak, information is not enough. During dental practice, blood and saliva can be scattered. Accordingly, dental practice can be a potential risk for dental staff, and there is a high risk of cross-infection. This article addresses all information collected to date on the virus, in accordance with the guidelines of international health care institutions, and provides a comprehensive protocol for managing possible exposure to patients or those suspected of having coronavirus.

negative: Clinical Decision Support Tool and Rapid Point-of-Care Platform for Determining Disease Severity in Patients with COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which has reached pandemic levels resulting in significant morbidity and mortality affecting every inhabited continent. The large number of patients requiring intensive care threatens to overwhelm healthcare systems globally. Likewise, there is a compelling need for a COVID-19 disease severity test to prioritize care and resources for patients at elevated risk of mortality. Here, an integrated point-of-care COVID-19 Severity Score and clinical decision support system is presented using biomarker measurements of C-reactive protein (CRP), N-terminus pro B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), myoglobin (MYO), D-dimer, procalcitonin (PCT), creatine kinase-myocardial band (CK-MB), and cardiac troponin I (cTnI). The COVID-19 Severity Score combines multiplex biomarker measurements and risk factors in a statistical learning algorithm to predict mortality. The COVID-19 Severity Score was trained and evaluated using data from 160 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from Wuhan, China. Our analysis finds that COVID-19 Severity Scores were significantly higher for the group that died versus the group that was discharged with median (interquartile range) scores of 59 (40–83) and 9 (6–17), respectively, and area under the curve of 0.94 (95% CI 0.89–0.99). These promising initial models pave the way for a point-of-care COVID-19 Severity Score system to impact patient care after further validation with externally collected clinical data. Clinical decision support tools for COVID-19 have strong potential to empower healthcare providers to save lives by prioritizing critical care in patients at high risk for adverse outcomes.

negative: COVID-19 infection in Italian people with diabetes: Lessons learned for our future (an experience to be used)

negative: Canada’s Covid-19 response: navigating national and global solidarity

negative: Rigidity of the Outer Shell Predicted by a Protein Intrinsic Disorder Model Sheds Light on the COVID-19 (Wuhan-2019-nCoV) Infectivity The world is currently witnessing an outbreak of a new coronavirus spreading quickly across China and affecting at least 24 other countries With almost 65,000 infected, a worldwide death toll of at least 1370 (as of 14 February 2020), and with the potential to affect up to two-thirds of the world population, COVID-19 is considered by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be a global health emergency The speed of spread and infectivity of COVID-19 (also known as Wuhan-2019-nCoV) are dramatically exceeding those of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) In fact, since September 2012, the WHO has been notified of 2494 laboratory-confirmed cases of infection with MERS-CoV, whereas the 2002–2003 epidemic of SARS affected 26 countries and resulted in more than 8000 cases Therefore, although SARS, MERS, and COVID-19 are all the result of coronaviral infections, the causes of the coronaviruses differ dramatically in their transmissibility It is likely that these differences in infectivity of coronaviruses can be attributed to the differences in the rigidity of their shells which can be evaluated using computational tools for predicting intrinsic disorder predisposition of the corresponding viral proteins

negative: Severity of respiratory failure and outcome of patients needing a ventilatory support in the Emergency Department during Italian novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 outbreak: Preliminary data on the role of Helmet CPAP and Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation BACKGROUND: Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is spreading around the world. At the end of February, the outburst of the pandemic has hit hard on northern Italian's hospitals. As of today, no data have been published regarding the severity of respiratory failure of patients presenting to the Emergency Departments. Moreover, the outcome the patients forced to undergo Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) or Non-Invasive Positive Pressure Ventilation (NIPPV) due to lack of Intensive Care resources is unknown. “Papa Giovanni XXIII” hospital (HPG23) of Bergamo is one of the largest hospitals in the Country, with an Emergency Department (ED) managing over 100,000 patients per year. METHODS: This is a retrospective observational study based on chart review of patients presenting to the Emergency Department of HPG23 from 29/02/2020 to 10/03/2020 with a clinical condition highly suspicious for COVID-19 infection. Registration of admission rates, severity of respiratory failure (ARDS classification), need of respiratory support, SARS-CoV-2 PCR test and outcome of patients treated with a ventilatory support were registered on 10th of May 2020. FINDINGS: From 29/02 to 10/03 611 patients with a suspected diagnosis of COVID-19 infection were evaluated in our ED; 320 (52%) met the criteria for hospital admission and 99 (31%) needed to be immediately started on ventilatory support (81% CPAP, 7% NIPPV, 12% Invasive Mechanical Ventilation). Eighty-five (86%) of the 99 patients needing a ventilatory support eventually had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by PCR test on nasal-pharyngeal swab. Their median PO2/FiO2 ratio was 128 (IQR 85–168), with 23 patients (29.5%) classified as severe ARDS. Mortality rate as of 10th of May was 76.5%, ranging from 44.4% within patients <60 years old to 85% within those older than 60 years (p = 0.001). NIPPV/CPAP failure occurred in 91.5% of patients. INTERPRETATION: The population of patients suspected for COVID-19 infection presenting at our ED showed a very high rate of severe respiratory failure, with urgent need of a large amount of intensive care resources. Mortality rates of critically ill patients with confirmed COVID-19 (76.5%) are similar to previously reported studies with similar population. CPAP/NIPPV could be a valid strategy to treat severely hypoxic patients that cannot be intubated in the ED due to lack of intensive care resources. FUNDING: No funds were received for this research project.

negative: An Invited Commentary on “The Socio-Economic Implications of the Coronavirus and COVID-19 Pandemic: A Review”

negative: SARS may be mammal-bird merger Genetic shuffle might have allowed human infection.

negative: What Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Mean for Rheumatology Patients? PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in uncertainty for patients with autoimmune rheumatic diseases for several reasons. They are concerned about their risk of developing COVID-19 as many are immune suppressed from their disease and/or treatment, whether they should stop their advanced therapies, if they will have a worse outcome if/when infected due to their underlying medication condition(s) and if they will have drug availability, especially with press (without much data) coverage suggesting hydroxychloroquine may be used in COVID-19 infection causing diversion of medication supply. This article discusses how the pandemic affects people with systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases. RECENT FINDINGS: Preliminarily, articles seem to suggest that patients with rheumatic diseases may not have more infections from SARS-CoV-2 and similar outcomes to age and gender matched patients, but fear of rheumatic medications increasing their risk, drug shortages, and work exposure all are concerns for patients. RECENT FINDINGS: The long term effects of the pandemic in patients with rheumatic diseases will not be known until much later and likely include stressors flaring disease (fear, illness, job loss, social isolation), post-traumatic stress, flaring due to stopping medications, less physician visits with subsequent under-treatment, and increases in chronic concomitant fatigue, pain, fibromyalgia.

negative: Global Infodemiology of COVID-19: Focus on Google web searches and Instagram hashtags Background: Several studies have been conducted using 'infodemiological' methods in COVID-19 research, but studies focusing to examine the extent of infodemic monikers (misinformation) on the internet is very limited. Aim: We aimed to investigate the internet search behavior related to COVID-19 and the extent of infodemic monikers circulating in Google and Instagram during the pandemic period in the world. Methods: Using Google Trends and Instagram hashtags (#), we explored the internet search activities and behaviors related to COVID-19 pandemic all over the world from February 20, 2020, to May 06, 2020. Briefly, we investigated the names used to identify the virus, health and risk perception, life during the lockdown, and also information related to the adoption of infodemic monikers related to COVID-19. We computed the average peak volume (APC) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) during the study period. Results: The top five COVID-19 related terms used in Google searches were "coronavirus", "corona", "COVID", "virus", "corona virus", and "COVID-19". Countries with a higher number of COVID-19 cases have greater Google searches queries related to COVID-19. "coronavirus ozone", "coronavirus laboratory", "coronavirus 5G", "coronavirus conspiracy" and "coronavirus bill gates" are widely circulated infodemic monikers on the internet. Searches related to 'tips and cures' to COVID-19 spiked when the US president suggested an unproven drug as a 'miracle cure' and suggested injecting disinfectant to treat COVID-19. Around two-thirds (66.1%) of the Instagram users use "COVID-19", and "coronavirus" hashtags to disperse the information related to COVID-19. Conclusion: Globally, there is a growing interest in COVID-19 and a large number of infodemic monikers are circulating on the internet. Therefore, mass media regulators and health organizers should be vigilant to diminish the infodemic monikers dispersing on the internet and also should take serious actions against those spreading misinformation in social media.

negative: Outcomes from intensive care in patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to high demand for intensive care services worldwide. However, the mortality of patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with COVID-19 is unclear. Here, we perform a systematic review and meta-analysis, in line with PRISMA guidelines, to assess the reported ICU mortality for patients with confirmed COVID-19. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed and Cochrane databases up to 31 May 2020 for studies reporting ICU mortality for adult patients admitted with COVID-19. The primary outcome measure was death in intensive care as a proportion of completed intensive care unit admissions, either through discharge from the ICU or death. The definition thus excluded patients still alive on ICU. Twenty-four observational studies including 10,150 patients were identified from centres across Asia, Europe, and North America. In-ICU mortality in reported studies ranged from 0-84.6%. Seven studies reported outcome data for all patients. In the remaining studies, the proportion of patients discharged from ICU at the point of reporting varied from 24.5-97.2%. In patients with completed ICU admissions with COVID-19 infection, combined ICU mortality was 41.6% (95%CI 34.0-49.7%, I2 = 93.2%). Subgroup analysis by continent showed that mortality is broadly consistent across the globe. As the pandemic has progressed the reported mortality rates have reduced from above 50% to close to 40%. The in-ICU mortality from COVID-19 is higher than usually seen in ICU admissions with other viral pneumonias. Importantly, the mortality from completed episodes of ICU differs considerably from the crude mortality rates in some early reports.

negative: Characterization of nucleocapsid-M protein interaction in murine coronavirus.

negative: The Impacts on Health, Society, and Economy of SARS and H7N9 Outbreaks in China: A Case Comparison Study BACKGROUND: Epidemics such as SARS and H7N9 have caused huge negative impacts on population health and the economy in China. AIMS: This article discusses the impacts of SARS in 2003 and H7N9 in 2013 in China, in order to provide a better understanding to government and practitioners of why improving management of response to infectious disease outbreaks is so critical for a country's economy, its society, and its place in the global community. METHODS: To provide the results of an analysis of impacts of SARS and H7N9 based on feedback from documents, informants, and focus groups on events during the SARS and H7N9 outbreaks. RESULTS: Both outbreaks of SARS and H7N9 have had an impact on China, causing significant negative impacts on health, the economy, and even national and even international security. CONCLUSIONS: Both SARS coronavirus and H7N9 viruses presented a global epidemic threat, but the social and economic impacts of H7N9 were not as serious as in the case of SARS because the response to H7N9 was more effective.

negative: Global Ranking of COVID-19-Related Mortality by Country using a Novel Pandemic Efficiency Index (PEI) The world is currently witnessing a dramatic disruption of everyday life owing to the rapid progression of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. As the pandemic evolves, there is an urgent need to better understand its epidemiology, characterize its potential impact, and identify mitigatory strategies to avert pandemic-related mortality. There is a need for a tool or algorithm to evaluate the extent to which public health policy and/or economic preparedness measures are effectively averting COVID-19 related mortality. We present a simple and yet practical epidemiological tool, the Pandemic Efficiency Index (PEI), that can be utilized globally to test the relative efficiency of measures put in place to avert death resulting from COVID-19 infection. Using the PEI and current COVID-19-related mortality, we determined that so far Germany demonstrates the highest PEI (5.1) among countries with more than 5,000 recorded cases of the infection, indicating high quality measures instituted by the country to avert death during the pandemic. Italy and France currently have the lowest COVID-19-related PEIs. Epidemics and pandemics come and go, but local, national, and global abilities to determine the efficiency of their efforts in averting deaths is critical.

negative: Outcome of Oncology Patients Infected With Coronavirus PURPOSE: This study investigated the features of oncology patients with confirmed Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) at the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs-Riyadh during the outbreak of June 2015 to determine the clinical course and outcome of affected patients. METHODS: The patients’ demographic information, cancer history, treatment pattern, information about MERS-coronavirus (CoV) infection, history of travel, clinical symptoms, test results, and outcome were collected and analyzed as part of a quality improvement project to improve the care and safety of our patients. Only patients with confirmed infection were included. RESULTS: A total of 19 patients were identified, with a median age of 66 years (range, 16-88 years), and 12 patients (63%) were males. The most common underlying disease was hematologic malignancies (47.4%), followed by colorectal cancer (21%) and lung cancer (15.8%). Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common comorbidities (57.9% and 52.6%, respectively). Infection was diagnosed by nasopharyngeal swab in all patients. All patients contracted the infection during their hospitalization for other reasons. Sixteen patients (80%) were admitted to the intensive care unit; 13 patients (81%) had acute respiratory distress syndrome, 11 were intubated (68.75%), 9 had acute renal injury (56.25%), and 3 required dialysis (18.75%). Only 3 patients (15.8%) with early-stage cancers survived. Patients with hematologic malignancies and advanced solid tumors had a 100% case fatality rate. The majority of the causes of death were due to multi-organ failure and septic shock. CONCLUSION: MERS-CoV infection resulted in a high case fatality rate in patients with malignancy. Therefore, it is critical to implement effective primary preventive measures to avoid exposure of patients with cancer to the virus.

negative: Basic Reproduction Rate and Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19: Application of Meta-analysis Abstract Background: The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) has a wider geographical spread than other previous viruses such as Ebola and H1N1. The onset of disease and its transmission and severity has become a global concern. The policymakers have a serious concern for containing the spread and minimising the risk of death. Aim: This study aims to provide the estimates of basic reproduction rate (R0) and case fatality rate (CFR) which applies to a generalised population. Methods: A systematic review was carried out to retrieve the published estimates of reproduction rate and case fatality rate in peer-reviewed articles from PubMed MEDLINE database with defined inclusion and exclusion criteria in the period 15 December 2019 to 3 May 2020. The systematic review led to the selection of 24 articles for R0 and 17 articles for CFR. These studies used data from China and its provinces, other Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, the Philippines, and countries from other parts of the world such as Nigeria, Iran, Italy, Europe as a whole, France, Latin America, Turkey, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). These selected articles gave an output of 30 counts of R0 and 29 counts of CFR which were used in a meta-analysis. A meta-analysis, with the inverse variance method, fixed- and random-effects model and the Forest plot, was performed to estimate the mean effect size or mean value of basic reproduction rate and case fatality rate. The Funnel plot is used to comprehend the publication bias. Results: We estimated the robust estimate of R0 at 3.11 (2.49-3.71) persons and the robust estimate of CFR at 2.56 (2.06-3.05) per cent after accounting for heterogeneity among studies, using the random-effects model. The regional subgroup analysis in a meta-analysis was significant for R0 but was not significant for CFR. The R0 values varied from 1.90 (1.06-2.74) persons to 3.83 (2.44-5.22) persons across the regions. The Funnel plot confirms that the selected studies are significant at one per cent level of significance. Conclusion: We found that one person is likely to infect two to three persons in the absence of any control measures, and around three per cent of the population are at the risk of death within one-and-a-half months from the onset of disease COVID-19 in a generalised population. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 varies across regions, but the risk of death remains the same. Contribution: The estimates of R0 and CFR are independent of data from a particular region or time or a homogeneous population. These estimates are applicable to a generalised population. Therefore, the estimates of R0 and CFR are unequivocally applicable to developing country like India and its states or districts, in ambivalence. The assessments of R0 and CFR values across the developed nations make all of us aware of consequences of COVID-19, and hence these estimates are of crucial importance for government authorities for the practical implementation of strategies and control measures to contain the disease. Keywords: Covid-19, SARS-CoV-2, Reproduction Rate, Case Fatality Rate, Systematic Review, Meta-analysis

negative: The introduction of dengue follows transportation infrastructure changes in the state of Acre, Brazil: A network-based analysis Human mobility, presence and passive transportation of Aedes aegypti mosquito, and environmental characteristics are a group of factors which contribute to the success of dengue spread and establishment. To understand this process, we assess data from dengue national and municipal basins regarding population and demographics, transportation network, human mobility, and Ae. aegypti monitoring for the Brazilian state of Acre since the first recorded dengue case in the year 2000 to the year 2015. During this period, several changes in Acre’s transport infrastructure and urbanization have been started. To reconstruct the process of dengue introduction in Acre, we propose an analytic framework based on concepts used in malaria literature, namely vulnerability and receptivity, to inform risk assessments in dengue-free regions as well as network theory concepts for disease invasion and propagation. We calculate the probability of dengue importation to Acre from other Brazilian states, the evolution of dengue spread between Acrean municipalities and dengue establishment in the state. Our findings suggest that the landscape changes associated with human mobility have created favorable conditions for the establishment of dengue virus transmission in Acre. The revitalization of its major roads, as well as the increased accessibility by air to and within the state, have increased dengue vulnerability. Unplanned urbanization and population growth, as observed in Acre during the period of study, contribute to ideal conditions for Ae. aegypti mosquito establishment, increase the difficulty in mosquito control and consequently its local receptivity.

negative: COVID‐19 and Indigenous Peoples: An imperative for action Every person on Earth has been affected in some way by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. However, there is a marked inequity in the impact and threat of the disease for the 370 million Indigenous Peoples worldwide. While honouring diversity in peoples and cultures, this editorial (written by a collaborative of Indigenous nurses from Australia, Aotearoa (New Zealand), Canada, the United States of America and Central America), explores contemporary issues raised for Indigenous communities by this latest public health emergency. Please note, while we may describe a situation about a specific Indigenous group, readers can be assured that the issues we raise are endemic across colonised Indigenous communities globally.

negative: Inuit communities can beat COVID-19 and tuberculosis

negative: Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. BACKGROUND Control of pandemic influenza by social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic planning. However, investigations of the extent to which these measures actually affect the progression of a pandemic have been limited. OBJECTIVE To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission. DESIGN Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns. SETTING Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. DATA SOURCES 2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars. MEASUREMENTS Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. RESULTS The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic. LIMITATIONS Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible. CONCLUSION Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.

negative: Le nouveau Coronavirus Covid-19 : quels risques ophtalmiques ?

negative: Exercising caution in correlating COVID-19 incidence and mortality rates with BCG vaccination policies due to variable rates of SARS CoV-2 testing TThe Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine provides protection against tuberculosis (TB), and is proposed to provide protection to non-TB infectious diseases. The COVID-19 outbreak results from infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (CoV-2) and was declared a pandemic on March 11th, 2020. We queried whether the BCG vaccine offers protection against CoV-2 infection. We observed that countries with a current universal BCG vaccination policy have a significantly lower COVID-19 incidence than countries which never had a universal BCG policy or had one in the past. However, population density, median age, TB incidence, urban population, and, most significantly, CoV-2 testing rate, were also connected with BCG policy and could potentially confound the analysis. By limiting the analysis to countries with high CoV-2 testing rates, defined as greater than 2,500 tests per million inhabitants, these parameters were no longer statistically associated with BCG policy. When analyzing only countries with high testing rates, there was no longer a significant association between the number of COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants and the BCG vaccination policy. Although preliminary, our analyses indicate that the BCG vaccination may not offer protection against CoV-2 infection. While reporting biases may confound our observations, our findings support exercising caution in determining potential correlation between BCG vaccination and COVID-19 incidence, in part due significantly lower rates of CoV-2 testing per million inhabitants in countries with current universal BCG vaccination policy.

negative: Inbred Strain Variant Database (ISVdb): A Repository for Probabilistically Informed Sequence Differences Among the Collaborative Cross Strains and Their Founders The Collaborative Cross (CC) is a panel of recently established multiparental recombinant inbred mouse strains. For the CC, as for any multiparental population (MPP), effective experimental design and analysis benefit from detailed knowledge of the genetic differences between strains. Such differences can be directly determined by sequencing, but until now whole-genome sequencing was not publicly available for individual CC strains. An alternative and complementary approach is to infer genetic differences by combining two pieces of information: probabilistic estimates of the CC haplotype mosaic from a custom genotyping array, and probabilistic variant calls from sequencing of the CC founders. The computation for this inference, especially when performed genome-wide, can be intricate and time-consuming, requiring the researcher to generate nontrivial and potentially error-prone scripts. To provide standardized, easy-to-access CC sequence information, we have developed the Inbred Strain Variant Database (ISVdb). The ISVdb provides, for all the exonic variants from the Sanger Institute mouse sequencing dataset, direct sequence information for CC founders and, critically, the imputed sequence information for CC strains. Notably, the ISVdb also: (1) provides predicted variant consequence metadata; (2) allows rapid simulation of F1 populations; and (3) preserves imputation uncertainty, which will allow imputed data to be refined in the future as additional sequencing and genotyping data are collected. The ISVdb information is housed in an SQL database and is easily accessible through a custom online interface (http://isvdb.unc.edu), reducing the analytic burden on any researcher using the CC.

negative: Travel-acquired infections and illnesses in Canadians: surveillance report from CanTravNet surveillance data, 2009–2011 BACKGROUND: Important knowledge gaps exist in our understanding of migration medicine practice and the impact of pathogens imported by Canadian travellers. We present here a comprehensive, Canada-specific surveillance summary of illness in a cohort of returned Canadian travellers and new immigrants. METHODS: We extracted and analyzed (using standard parametric and nonparametric techniques) data from the Canadian Travel Medicine Network (CanTravNet) database for ill returned Canadian travellers and new immigrants who presented to a Canadian GeoSentinel Surveillance Network site between September 2009 and September 2011. RESULTS: During the study period, 4365 travellers and immigrants presented to a CanTravNet site, 3943 (90.3%) of whom were assigned a travel-related diagnosis. Among the 3115 non-immigrant travellers with a definitive travel-related diagnosis, arthropod bite (n = 127 [4.1%]), giardiasis (n = 91 [2.9%]), malaria (n = 77 [2.5%]), latent tuberculosis (n = 73 [2.3%]), and strongyloidiasis (n = 66 [2.1%]) were the most common specific etiologic diagnoses. Among the 828 immigrants with definitive travel-related diagnoses, the most frequent etiologies were latent tuberculosis (n = 229 [27.7%]), chronic hepatitis B (n = 182 [22.0%]), active tuberculosis (n = 97 [11.7%]), chronic hepatitis C (n = 89 [10.7%]), and strongyloidiasis (n = 41 [5.0%]). Potentially serious infections, such as dengue fever (61 cases) and enteric fever due to Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi or Paratyphi (36 cases), were common. Individuals travelling for the purpose of visiting friends and relatives (n = 500 [11.6% of those with known reason for travel]) were over-represented among those diagnosed with malaria and enteric fever, compared with other illnesses (for malaria 34/94 [36.2%] v. 466/4221 [11.0%]; for enteric fever, 17/36 [47.2%] v. 483/4279 [11.3%]) (both p < 0.001). For cases of malaria, there was also overrepresentation (compared with other illnesses) from business travellers (22/94 [23.4%] v. 337/4221 [8.0%]) and males (62/94 [66.0%] v. 1964/4269 [46.0%]) (both p < 0.001). Malaria was more likely than other illnesses to be acquired in sub-Saharan Africa (p < 0.001), whereas dengue was more likely than other illnesses to be imported from the Caribbean and South East Asia (both p = 0.003) and enteric fever from South Central Asia (24/36 [66.7%]) (p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION: This analysis of surveillance data on ill returned Canadian travellers has detailed the spectrum of imported illness within this cohort. It provides an epidemiologic framework for Canadian practitioners encountering ill returned travellers. We have confirmed that travel to visit friends and relatives confers particularly high risks, which underscores the need to improve pretravel intervention for a population that is unlikely to seek specific pretravel advice. Potentially serious and fatal illnesses such as malaria and enteric fever were common, as were illnesses of public health importance, such as tuberculosis and hepatitis B.

negative: Public health human resources: a comparative analysis of policy documents in two Canadian provinces BACKGROUND: Amidst concerns regarding the capacity of the public health system to respond rapidly and appropriately to threats such as pandemics and terrorism, along with changing population health needs, governments have focused on strengthening public health systems. A key factor in a robust public health system is its workforce. As part of a nationally funded study of public health renewal in Canada, a policy analysis was conducted to compare public health human resources-relevant documents in two Canadian provinces, British Columbia (BC) and Ontario (ON), as they each implement public health renewal activities. METHODS: A content analysis of policy and planning documents from government and public health-related organizations was conducted by a research team comprised of academics and government decision-makers. Documents published between 2003 and 2011 were accessed (BC = 27; ON = 20); documents were either publicly available or internal to government and excerpted with permission. Documentary texts were deductively coded using a coding template developed by the researchers based on key health human resources concepts derived from two national policy documents. RESULTS: Documents in both provinces highlighted the importance of public health human resources planning and policies; this was particularly evident in early post-SARS documents. Key thematic areas of public health human resources identified were: education, training, and competencies; capacity; supply; intersectoral collaboration; leadership; public health planning context; and priority populations. Policy documents in both provinces discussed the importance of an educated, competent public health workforce with the appropriate skills and competencies for the effective and efficient delivery of public health services. CONCLUSION: This policy analysis identified progressive work on public health human resources policy and planning with early documents providing an inventory of issues to be addressed and later documents providing evidence of beginning policy development and implementation. While many similarities exist between the provinces, the context distinctive to each province has influenced and shaped how they have focused their public health human resources policies.

negative: Exit strategies: optimising feasible surveillance for detection, elimination and ongoing prevention of COVID-19 community transmission Background Following successful implementation of strong containment measures by the community, Australia is now close to the point of eliminating detectable community transmission of COVID-19. We aimed to develop an efficient, rapid and scalable surveillance strategy for detecting all remaining COVID-19 community transmission through exhaustive identification of every active transmission chain. We also identified measures to enable early detection and effective management of any reintroduction of transmission once containment measures are lifted to ensure strong containment measures do not need to be reinstated. Methods We compared efficiency and sensitivity to detect community transmission chains through testing of: hospital cases; primary care fever and cough patients; or asymptomatic community members, using surveillance evaluation methods and mathematical modelling, varying testing capacities and prevalence of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 fever and cough, and the reproduction number. System requirements for increasing testing to allow exhaustive identification of all transmission chains, and then enable complete follow-up of all cases and contacts within each chain, were assessed per million population. Findings Assuming 20% of cases are asymptomatic and all symptomatic COVID-19 cases present to primary care, with high transmission (R=2.2) there are a median of 13 unrecognised community cases (5 infectious) when a transmission chain is identified through hospital surveillance versus 3 unrecognised cases (1 infectious) through primary care surveillance. 3 unrecognised community upstream community cases themselves are estimated to generate a further 22-33 contacts requiring follow-up. The unrecognised community cases rise to 5 if only 50% of symptomatic cases present to primary care. Screening for asymptomatic disease in the community cannot exhaustively identify all transmission under any of the scenarios assessed. The additional capacity required to screen all fever and cough primary care patients would be approximately 2,000 tests/million population per week using 1/16 pooling of samples. Interpretation Screening all syndromic fever and cough primary care presentations, in combination with exhaustive and meticulous case and contact identification and management, enables appropriate early detection and elimination of community transmission of COVID-19. If testing capacity is limited, interventions such as pooling allow increased case detection, even given reduced test sensitivity. Wider identification and testing of all upstream contacts, (i.e. potential sources of infection for identified cases, and their related transmission chains) is critical, and to be done exhaustively requires more resources than downstream contact tracing. The most important factor in determining the performance of such a surveillance system is community participation in screening and follow up, and as such, appropriate community engagement, messaging and support to encourage presentation and compliance is essential. We provide operational guidance on implementing such a system.

negative: Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19 Infection Taking ACEI/ARB PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the virus responsible for the aggressive coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Recently, investigators have stipulated that COVID-19 patients receiving angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) may be subject to poorer outcomes. This editorial presents the available evidence to guide treatment practices during this pandemic. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent studies from Wuhan cohorts provide valuable information about COVID-19. A cohort with 52 critically ill patients revealed cardiac injury in 12% of patients. Worse outcomes appear to be more prevalent in patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus (DM), possibly due to overexpression of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor in airway alveolar epithelial cells. Investigators suspect that SARS-CoV-2 uses the ACE2 receptor to enter the lungs in a mechanism similar to SARS-CoV. Several hypotheses have been proposed to date regarding the net effect of ACEI/ARB on COVID-19 infections. Positive effects include ACE2 receptor blockade, disabling viral entry into the heart and lungs, and an overall decrease in inflammation secondary to ACEI/ARB. Negative effects include a possible retrograde feedback mechanism, by which ACE2 receptors are upregulated. SUMMARY: Even though physiological models of SARS-CoV infection show a theoretical benefit of ACEI/ARB, these findings cannot be extrapolated to SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19. Major cardiology scientific associations, including ACC, HFSA, AHA, and ESC Hypertension Council, have rejected these correlation hypotheses. After an extensive literature review, we conclude that there is no significant evidence to support an association for now, but given the rapid evolvement of this pandemic, findings may change.

negative: COVID-19 in Colombia endpoints. Are we different, like Europe? The infection by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has taken the dimension of a pandemic, affecting more than 160 countries in a few weeks. In Colombia, despite the implementation of the rules established by the national government, exists an elevate concern both for mortality and for the limited capacity of the health system to respond effectively to the needs of patients infected. For Colombia, assuming a case fatality rate among people infected with SARS-CoV-2 of 0.6% (average data from the information reported for Latin American countries for March 18) (Table 1), the number of deaths, in one or two weeks, could be 16 and 243, respectively. These estimates differ markedly from those documented in countries such as Spain and Italy, in which COVID-19 case fatality rates exceed 8% (case of Italy) and from the percentage of patients who have required intensive care, which has ranged from 9% to 11% of patients in Mediterranean European countries. These differences could be explained due to: a) the percentage of the population at risk (individuals older than 60 years); b) a higher epidemiological exposure to viral respiratory infections associated with more frequent exposure to them, due to geographic and climatic conditions; c) less spread of the virus by location in the tropical zone; and d) earlier preventive measures to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Therefore, it is possible to establish that the situation in this country will be different from in European Mediterranean and that Colombia could have different endpoints from Spain and Italy.

negative: Vaccines: Shaping global health Abstract The Developing Countries Vaccine Manufacturers’ Network (DCVMN) gathered leaders in immunization programs, vaccine manufacturing, representatives of the Argentinean Health Authorities and Pan American Health Organization, among other global health stakeholders, for its 17th Annual General Meeting in Buenos Aires, to reflect on how vaccines are shaping global health. Polio eradication and elimination of measles and rubella from the Americas is a result of successful collaboration, made possible by timely supply of affordable vaccines. After decades of intense competition for high-value markets, collaboration with developing countries has become critical, and involvement of multiple manufacturers as well as public- and private-sector investments are essential, for developing new vaccines against emerging infectious diseases. The recent Zika virus outbreak and the accelerated Ebola vaccine development exemplify the need for international partnerships to combat infectious diseases. A new player, Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) has made its entrance in the global health community, aiming to stimulate research preparedness against emerging infections. Face-to-face panel discussions facilitated the dialogue around challenges, such as risks of viability to vaccine development and regulatory convergence, to improve access to sustainable vaccine supply. It was discussed that joint efforts to optimizing regulatory pathways in developing countries, reducing registration time by up to 50%, are required. Outbreaks of emerging infections and the global Polio eradication and containment challenges are reminders of the importance of vaccines’ access, and of the importance of new public-private partnerships.

negative: Crystal structure of the receptor-binding domain from newly emerged Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The newly emerged Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has infected at least 77 people, with a fatality rate of more than 50%. Alarmingly, the virus demonstrates the capability of human-to-human transmission, raising the possibility of global spread and endangering world health and economy. Here we have identified the receptor-binding domain (RBD) from the MERS-CoV spike protein and determined its crystal structure. This study also presents a structural comparison of MERS-CoV RBD with other coronavirus RBDs, successfully positioning MERS-CoV on the landscape of coronavirus evolution and providing insights into receptor binding by MERS-CoV. Furthermore, we found that MERS-CoV RBD functions as an effective entry inhibitor of MERS-CoV. The identified MERS-CoV RBD may also serve as a potential candidate for MERS-CoV subunit vaccines. Overall, this study enhances our understanding of the evolution of coronavirus RBDs, provides insights into receptor recognition by MERS-CoV, and may help control the transmission of MERS-CoV in humans.

negative: Hospital pharmacists’ pharmaceutical care for hospitalized patients with COVID-19: Recommendations and guidance from clinical experience Abstract Objective To discuss hospital pharmacists’ role in providing pharmaceutical care for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 to promote patient care and management during the pandemic. Method Based on the method of evidence-based pharmacy, clinical evidence of therapeutical drugs for COVID-19 were retrieved and summarized. Based on clinical experience Chinese hospital pharmacists gained from providing pharmaceutical care services during COVID-19 pandemic, taking COVID-19 hospitalized patients’ needs into consideration, the methods and strategies hospital pharmacists shall use to provide pharmaceutical care were analyzed and summarized. Results Hospital pharmacists shall support pharmaceutical care services by participating in making evidence-based decisions for medication, monitoring and evaluation of medication safety and efficacy, providing strengthened care for special population and patients with combined underlying diseases, monitoring and management of convalescent plasma therapy, providing emotional counselling and psychological support, and providing scientific information about COVID-19 vaccines. Conclusion The need of pharmaceutical care services in COVID-19 hospitalized patients during this pandemic was quite distinguished from the past. Hospital pharmacists shall join the collaborative multidisciplinary team to improve COVID-19 patients’ outcome and reduce mortality, and to facilitate the pandemic control.

negative: Global Transplantation COVID Report March 2020

negative: 12-year old adolescent with super morbid obesity, treated with laparoscopic one anastomosis gastric bypass (LOAGB/BAGUA): A case report after 5-year follow-up. The prevalence of morbid obesity among adolescents has being on the increased in the recent decades specifically in developed countries around the world. In Europe, Spain has the highest prevalence of obese adolescents with more than 18% of the population of children and adolescents. There is evidence that the only effective and permanent treatment for morbid obesity and the comorbidities is surgical treatment, however there exists many controversies about which treatment is the best for obese adolescents. We report a case of a 12 year old patient with super obesity (58.5 kg/m(2) of BMI) and metabolic syndrome who underwent LOAGB/BAGUA and monitored during the last 5 year. The patient after five years follow-up maintains a 22.4 kg/m(2) of BMI. We consider that LOAGB/ BAGUA could be an effective and safe procedure as a treatment of obesity and comorbidities as well, for adolescent patients.

negative: Major ongoing clinical trials for COVID-19 treatment and studies currently being conducted or scheduled in Japan The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) poses a serious threat to global public health and economies Currently, hundreds of clinical trials on a wide variety of treatments against COVID-19 are being conducted around the world Here, we conducted a search for ongoing clinical trials for the treatment of COVID-19 at the clinicaltrials gov database on April 2, 2020 In total, 48 clinical trials were identified, and of these, 41 trials adopted drug intervention and the other 7 trials utilized biological intervention The number of trials stratified by a chief country conducting the investigation were 18 in China, 5 in the United States, 4 in Canada, 3 in Italy, 2 in France and Brazil, and 4 trials are being performed multinationally The drugs utilized in more than one trials were remdesivir (6 trials), lopinavir/ritonavir (6 trials), hydroxychloroquine (6 trials), interferon (5 trials), methylprednisolone (3 trials), nitric oxide gas (3 trials), oseltamivir (2 trials), arbidol (2 trials), and vitamin C (2 trials) We also described the Japanese trials which are now being conducted or scheduled, utilizing lopinavir/ritonavir, remdesivir, favipiravir, ciclesonide and nafamostat

negative: 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID‐19) in patients with Inflammatory Bowel Diseases BACKGROUND: Data on patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) who have had 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2) disease (COVID‐19) are lacking. AIM: To report the clinical characteristics, including gastrointestinal symptoms, of COVID‐19 in IBD patients, and to assess the risk of COVID‐19 in IBD. METHODS: This case series included consecutive IBD patients with laboratory‐confirmed COVID‐19. Age‐adjusted cumulative incidences were compared with the general population in the Madrid region. RESULTS: Through April 8, 12 patients of 1918 IBD patients were diagnosed of COVID‐19. The average age was 52 years, 75% of the patients were female, and 58.3% had Crohn’s disease. Seven patients (58%) were on maintenance treatment with immunomodulators/biologics, of these 4 with combined therapy (33%). Eight patients (66%) required hospitalization (1 intensive care unit admission, and 2 deaths), and 4 patients were isolated at home. Nine patients had diarrhoea ranging between 4‐10 loose stools per day (mean 5.4, SD 1.6). In 5 patients (42%) diarrhoea was a presenting symptom. In 2 patients, diarrhoea was the only symptom at debut. Cumulative incidence of COVID‐19 was 6.1 per 1000 IBD patients. IBD patients had a lower adjusted incidence ratio of COVID‐19 (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.70‐0.77; p<0.001), and a similar associated mortality ratio (OR 0.95, 95% CI: 0.84‐1.06; p=0.36), compared with the general population. CONCLUSIONS: IBD patients do not have an increased risk of COVID‐19 and associated mortality compared with the general population. In many IBD patients diarrhoea was a presenting symptom, and sometimes, was the only symptom at onset of COVID‐19.

negative: An evidence-based framework for priority clinical research questions for COVID-19 BACKGROUND: On 31 December, 2019, the World Health Organization China Country Office was informed of cases of pneumonia of unknown aetiology. Since then, there have been over 75 000 cases globally of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), 2000 deaths, and over 14 000 cases recovered. Outbreaks of novel agents represent opportunities for clinical research to inform real-time public health action. In 2018, we conducted a systematic review to identify priority research questions for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-related coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Here, we review information available on COVID-19 and provide an evidenced-based framework for priority clinical research in the current outbreak. METHODS: Three bibliographic databases were searched to identify clinical studies published on SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV in the outbreak setting. Studies were grouped thematically according to clinical research questions addressed. In February 2020, available information on COVID19 was reviewed and compared to the results of the SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV systematic review. RESULTS: From the research objectives for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, ten themes in the literature were identified: Clinical characterisation, prognosis, diagnosis, clinical management, viral pathogenesis, epidemiological characterisation, infection prevention and control/transmission, susceptibility, psychosocial, and aetiology. For COVID19, some information on clinical presentation, diagnostic testing, and aetiology is available but many clinical research gaps have yet to be filled. CONCLUSIONS: Based on a systematic review of other severe coronaviruses, we summarise the state of clinical research for COVID-19, highlight the research gaps, and provide recommendations for the implementation of standardised protocols. Data based on internationally standardised protocols will inform clinical practice real-time.

negative: Cardiac injury is associated with mortality and critically ill pneumonia in COVID-19: A meta-analysis Abstract Background In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to explore the association between cardiac injury and mortality, the need for intensive care unit (ICU) care, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods We performed a comprehensive literature search from several databases. Definition of cardiac injury follows that of the included studies, which includes highly sensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnl) >99th percentile.The primary outcome was mortality, and the secondary outcomes were ARDS, the need for ICU care, and severe COVID-19. ARDS and severe COVID-19 were defined per the World Health Organization (WHO) interim guidance of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) of COVID-19. Results There were a total of 2389 patients from 13 studies. This meta-analysis showed that cardiac injury was associated with higher mortality (RR 7.95 [5.12, 12.34], p < 0.001; I2: 65%). Cardiac injury was associated with higher need for ICU care (RR 7.94 [1.51, 41.78], p = 0.01; I2: 79%), and severe COVID-19 (RR 13.81 [5.52, 34.52], p < 0.001; I2: 0%). The cardiac injury was not significant for increased risk of ARDS (RR 2.57 [0.96, 6.85], p = 0.06; I2: 84%). The level of hs-cTnI was higher in patients with primary + secondary outcome (mean difference 10.38 pg/mL [4.44, 16.32], p = 0.002; I2: 0%). Conclusion Cardiac injury is associated with mortality, need for ICU care, and severity of disease in patients with COVID-19.

negative: Epidemiology and cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Guangdong, People's Republic of China, in February, 2003 Summary Background An epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has been associated with an outbreak of atypical pneumonia originating in Guangdong Province, People's Republic of China. We aimed to identify the causative agent in the Guangdong outbreak and describe the emergence and spread of the disease within the province. Methods We analysed epidemiological information and collected serum and nasopharyngeal aspirates from patients with SARS in Guangdong in mid-February, 2003. We did virus isolation, serological tests, and molecular assays to identify the causative agent. Findings SARS had been circulating in other cities of Guangdong Province for about 2 months before causing a major outbreak in Guangzhou, the province's capital. A novel coronavirus, SARS coronavirus (CoV), was isolated from specimens from three patients with SARS. Viral antigens were also directly detected in nasopharyngeal aspirates from these patients. 48 of 55 (87%) patients had antibodies to SARS CoV in their convalescent sera. Genetic analysis showed that the SARS CoV isolates from Guangzhou shared the same origin with those in other countries, and had a phylogenetic pathway that matched the spread of SARS to the other parts of the world. Interpretation SARS CoV is the infectious agent responsible for the epidemic outbreak of SARS in Guangdong. The virus isolated from patients in Guangdong is the prototype of the SARS CoV in other regions and countries.

negative: Should health professionals play the global health security card?

negative: A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) occurs after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For persons who are exposed, the standard of care is observation and quarantine. Whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent symptomatic infection after SARS-CoV-2 exposure is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across the United States and parts of Canada testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis. We enrolled adults who had household or occupational exposure to someone with confirmed Covid-19 at a distance of less than 6 ft for more than 10 minutes while wearing neither a face mask nor an eye shield (high-risk exposure) or while wearing a face mask but no eye shield (moderate-risk exposure). Within 4 days after exposure, we randomly assigned participants to receive either placebo or hydroxychloroquine (800 mg once, followed by 600 mg in 6 to 8 hours, then 600 mg daily for 4 additional days). The primary outcome was the incidence of either laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 or illness compatible with Covid-19 within 14 days. RESULTS: We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was -2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, -7.0 to 2.2; P = 0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported. CONCLUSIONS: After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668.).

negative: Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels are associated with increased risk of viral coinfections in wheezing children

negative: Coronavirus: Hotspot on coronavirus disease 2019 in India The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or also known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been recognized as the cause of respiratory infection in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in late December 2019. As of April 5, 2020, this epidemic had spread to worldwide with 12,03,485 confirmed cases, including 62,000 deaths. The World Health Organization has declared it a Global Public Health Crisis. Coronavirus causes respiratory illness coughing, sneezing, breathlessness, and fever including pneumonia. The disease is transmitted person to person through infected droplets. At present, the research on novel coronavirus is still in the primary stage. Based on the published study, we thoroughly summarize the history and origin, microbiology and taxonomy, mode of transmissions, target receptor, clinical features, diagnosis, prevention, and treatment about COVID-19. This short report writes in hope for providing platform to community and researcher dealings against with the novel coronavirus and providing a reference for further studies.

negative: Feline Infectious Peritonitis Virus Feline infectious peritonitis virus (FIP) is antigenically related with transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE) virus of swine, canine coronavirus, and human coronavirus 229E. The virus causes a variety of clinical manifestations from effusive peritonitis to noneffusive central nervous system (CNS) or visceral organ involvement. The hosts that are infected by feline infectious peritonitis virus include domestic cat (subfamily Felinae), lion, leopard, jaguar (subfamily Pantherinae), caracal, and lynx (subfamily Lyncinae); antibodies have also been found in cheetahs (subfamily Acinonychinae). The standard indirect fluorescent-antibody (IFA) technique of demonstrating antibodies against FIP virus uses either the cryostat sections of organ tissues from FIP affected cats or TGE virus-infected porcine cells as antigen preparations. High antibody titers in the sera/ascitic fluids of animals showing disease symptoms are taken as a confirmation of the clinical/pathological diagnosis.

negative: COVID-19, City Lockdown, and Air Pollution: Evidence from China The rapid spread of COVID-19 is a global public health challenge. To prevent the escalation of its transmission, China locked down one-third of its cities and strictly restricted human mobility and economic activities. Using timely and comprehensive air quality data in China, we show that these counter-COVID-19 measures led to remarkable improvement in air quality. Within weeks, the Air Quality Index and PM2.5 concentrations were brought down by 25%. The effects are larger in colder, richer, and more industrialized cities. We estimate that such improvement would avert 24,000 to 36,000 premature deaths from air pollution on a monthly basis.

negative: Coronavirus envelope protein: current knowledge BACKGROUND: Coronaviruses (CoVs) primarily cause enzootic infections in birds and mammals but, in the last few decades, have shown to be capable of infecting humans as well. The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 and, more recently, Middle-East respiratory syndrome (MERS) has demonstrated the lethality of CoVs when they cross the species barrier and infect humans. A renewed interest in coronaviral research has led to the discovery of several novel human CoVs and since then much progress has been made in understanding the CoV life cycle. The CoV envelope (E) protein is a small, integral membrane protein involved in several aspects of the virus’ life cycle, such as assembly, budding, envelope formation, and pathogenesis. Recent studies have expanded on its structural motifs and topology, its functions as an ion-channelling viroporin, and its interactions with both other CoV proteins and host cell proteins. MAIN BODY: This review aims to establish the current knowledge on CoV E by highlighting the recent progress that has been made and comparing it to previous knowledge. It also compares E to other viral proteins of a similar nature to speculate the relevance of these new findings. Good progress has been made but much still remains unknown and this review has identified some gaps in the current knowledge and made suggestions for consideration in future research. CONCLUSIONS: The most progress has been made on SARS-CoV E, highlighting specific structural requirements for its functions in the CoV life cycle as well as mechanisms behind its pathogenesis. Data shows that E is involved in critical aspects of the viral life cycle and that CoVs lacking E make promising vaccine candidates. The high mortality rate of certain CoVs, along with their ease of transmission, underpins the need for more research into CoV molecular biology which can aid in the production of effective anti-coronaviral agents for both human CoVs and enzootic CoVs.

negative: Clinical aspects and outcomes of 70 patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection: a single-center experience in Saudi Arabia Summary Objectives To report the experience with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection at a single center in Saudi Arabia. Methods Cases of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV occurring from October 1, 2012 to May 31, 2014 were reviewed retrospectively. Information sources included medical files, infection control outbreak investigations, and the preventive medicine database of MERS-CoV-infected patients. Data were collected on clinical and epidemiological aspects and outcomes. Results Seventy consecutive patients were included. Patients were mostly of older age (median 62 years), male (46, 65.7%), and had healthcare acquisition of infection (39, 55.7%). Fever (43, 61.4%), dyspnea (42, 60%), and cough (38, 54.3%) were the most common symptoms. The majority developed pneumonia (63, 90%) and required intensive care (49, 70%). Infection commonly occurred in clusters. Independent risk factors for severe infection requiring intensive care included concomitant infections (odds ratio (OR) 14.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.58–126.09; p =0.018) and low albumin (OR 6.31, 95% CI 1.24–31.90; p =0.026). Mortality was high (42, 60%), and age ≥65 years was associated with increased mortality (OR 4.39, 95% CI 2.13–9.05; p <0.001). Conclusions MERS-CoV can cause severe infection requiring intensive care and has a high mortality. Concomitant infections and low albumin were found to be predictors of severe infection, while age ≥65 years was the only predictor of increased mortality.

negative: Cognitive biases operating behind the rejection of government safety advisories during COVID19 Pandemic

negative: Spine surgery in Atlantic Canada in COVID-19 era: lessons learned so far.

negative: COVID-19 and obesity—lack of clarity, guidance, and implications for care

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection of human ciliated airway epithelia: role of ciliated cells in viral spread in the conducting airways of the lungs. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) emerged in 2002 as an important cause of severe lower respiratory tract infection in humans, and in vitro models of the lung are needed to elucidate cellular targets and the consequences of viral infection. The SARS-CoV receptor, human angiotensin 1-converting enzyme 2 (hACE2), was detected in ciliated airway epithelial cells of human airway tissues derived from nasal or tracheobronchial regions, suggesting that SARS-CoV may infect the proximal airways. To assess infectivity in an in vitro model of human ciliated airway epithelia (HAE) derived from nasal and tracheobronchial airway regions, we generated recombinant SARS-CoV by deletion of open reading frame 7a/7b (ORF7a/7b) and insertion of the green fluorescent protein (GFP), resulting in SARS-CoV GFP. SARS-CoV GFP replicated to titers similar to those of wild-type viruses in cell lines. SARS-CoV specifically infected HAE via the apical surface and replicated to titers of 10(7) PFU/ml by 48 h postinfection. Polyclonal antisera directed against hACE2 blocked virus infection and replication, suggesting that hACE2 is the primary receptor for SARS-CoV infection of HAE. SARS-CoV structural proteins and virions localized to ciliated epithelial cells. Infection was highly cytolytic, as infected ciliated cells were necrotic and shed over time onto the luminal surface of the epithelium. SARS-CoV GFP also replicated to a lesser extent in ciliated cell cultures derived from hamster or rhesus monkey airways. Efficient SARS-CoV infection of ciliated cells in HAE provides a useful in vitro model of human lung origin to study characteristics of SARS-CoV replication and pathogenesis.

negative: The More the Better? A Comparison of the Information Sources Used by the Public during Two Infectious Disease Outbreaks Recent infectious disease outbreaks have resulted in renewed recognition of the importance of risk communication planning and execution to public health control strategies. Key to these efforts is public access to information that is understandable, reliable and meets their needs for informed decision-making on protective health behaviours. Learning from the trends in sources used in previous outbreaks will enable improvements in information access in future outbreaks. Two separate random-digit dialled telephone surveys were conducted in Alberta, Canada, to explore information sources used by the public, together with their perceived usefulness and credibility, during the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic (n = 1209) and 2009–2010 H1N1 pandemic (n = 1206). Traditional mass media were the most used information sources in both surveys. Although use of the Internet increased from 25% during SARS to 56% during H1N1, overall use of social media was not as high as anticipated. Friends and relatives were commonly used as an information source, but were not deemed very useful or credible. Conversely, doctors and health professionals were considered credible, but not consulted as frequently. The use of five or more information sources increased by almost 60% between the SARS and H1N1 surveys. There was a shift to older, more educated and more affluent respondents between the surveys, most likely caused by a decrease in the use of landlines amongst younger Canadians. It was concluded that people are increasingly using multiple sources of health risk information, presumably in a complementary manner. Subsequently, although using online media is important, this should be used to augment rather than replace more traditional information channels. Efforts should be made to improve knowledge transfer to health care professionals and doctors and provide them with opportunities to be more accessible as information sources. Finally, the future use of telephone surveys needs to account for the changing demographics of the respondents accessed through such surveys.

negative: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis BACKGROUND: In the face of rapidly changing data, a range of case fatality ratio estimates for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been produced that differ substantially in magnitude. We aimed to provide robust estimates, accounting for censoring and ascertainment biases. METHODS: We collected individual-case data for patients who died from COVID-19 in Hubei, mainland China (reported by national and provincial health commissions to Feb 8, 2020), and for cases outside of mainland China (from government or ministry of health websites and media reports for 37 countries, as well as Hong Kong and Macau, until Feb 25, 2020). These individual-case data were used to estimate the time between onset of symptoms and outcome (death or discharge from hospital). We next obtained age-stratified estimates of the case fatality ratio by relating the aggregate distribution of cases to the observed cumulative deaths in China, assuming a constant attack rate by age and adjusting for demography and age-based and location-based under-ascertainment. We also estimated the case fatality ratio from individual line-list data on 1334 cases identified outside of mainland China. Using data on the prevalence of PCR-confirmed cases in international residents repatriated from China, we obtained age-stratified estimates of the infection fatality ratio. Furthermore, data on age-stratified severity in a subset of 3665 cases from China were used to estimate the proportion of infected individuals who are likely to require hospitalisation. FINDINGS: Using data on 24 deaths that occurred in mainland China and 165 recoveries outside of China, we estimated the mean duration from onset of symptoms to death to be 17·8 days (95% credible interval [CrI] 16·9–19·2) and to hospital discharge to be 24·7 days (22·9–28·1). In all laboratory confirmed and clinically diagnosed cases from mainland China (n=70 117), we estimated a crude case fatality ratio (adjusted for censoring) of 3·67% (95% CrI 3·56–3·80). However, after further adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we obtained a best estimate of the case fatality ratio in China of 1·38% (1·23–1·53), with substantially higher ratios in older age groups (0·32% [0·27–0·38] in those aged <60 years vs 6·4% [5·7–7·2] in those aged ≥60 years), up to 13·4% (11·2–15·9) in those aged 80 years or older. Estimates of case fatality ratio from international cases stratified by age were consistent with those from China (parametric estimate 1·4% [0·4–3·5] in those aged <60 years [n=360] and 4·5% [1·8–11·1] in those aged ≥60 years [n=151]). Our estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age. Similarly, estimates of the proportion of infected individuals likely to be hospitalised increased with age up to a maximum of 18·4% (11·0–7·6) in those aged 80 years or older. INTERPRETATION: These early estimates give an indication of the fatality ratio across the spectrum of COVID-19 disease and show a strong age gradient in risk of death. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

negative: Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013–2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan’s migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan’s migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan’s total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan’s migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3–4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan’s migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.

negative: (Un)Covering the COVID-19 Pandemic: Framing Analysis of the Crisis in Canada The current COVID-19 crisis is unprecedented in recent history. On April 1, 2020, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, warned that the world was facing the most challenging crisis since World War II (Associated Press, 2020). With the pandemic taking on an unprecedented magnitude in the twenty-first century, it quickly monopolized media attention. As of early April, Radar+'s large dataset showed that about 65 per cent of headlines on major Canadian media websites were related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Drivers of MERS-CoV transmission: what do we know? Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged in 2012 has since resulted in sporadic cases, intra-familial transmission and major outbreaks in healthcare settings. The clinical picture of MERS-CoV includes asymptomatic infections, mild or moderately symptomatic cases and fatal disease. Transmissions of MERS-CoV within healthcare settings are facilitated by overcrowding, poor compliance with basic infection control measures, unrecognized infections, the superspreaders phenomenon and poor triage systems. The actual contributing factors to the spread of MERS-CoV are yet to be systematically studied, but data to date suggest viral, host and environmental factors play a major role. Here, we summarize the known factors for the diverse transmission of MERS-CoV.

negative: Preventing respiratory illness in older adults aged 60 years and above living in long-term care: A rapid overview of reviews Background: The overall objective of this rapid overview of reviews (overview hereafter) was to identify evidence from systematic reviews (SRs) for infection control and prevention practices for adults aged 60 years and older in long-term care settings. Methods: Comprehensive searches in MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, biorxiv.org/medrxiv.org, clinicaltrials.gov and the Global Infectious Disease Epidemiology Network (GIDEON) were carried out in early March 2020. Title/abstract and full-text screening, data abstraction, and quality appraisal (AMSTAR 2) were carried out by single reviewers. Results: A total of 6 SRs published between 1999 and 2018 were identified and included in the overview. The SRs included between 1 and 37 primary studies representing between 140 to 908 patients. All of the primary studies included in the SRs were carried out in long-term care facilities (LTCF) and examined pharmacological, non-pharmacological, or combined interventions. One high quality SR found mixed results for the effectiveness of hand hygiene to prevent infection (2 studies statistically significant positive results, 1 study non-statistically significant results). One moderate quality SR with meta-analysis found a moderate non-statistically significant effect for personal protective equipment (PPE) in preventing infection and found no statistically significant results for the effectiveness of social isolation. One moderate quality SR reported statically significant evidence for the effectiveness of amantadine and amantadine + PPE to prevent infection with respiratory illness in LTCF. Conclusion: The current evidence suggests that with antiviral chemoprophylaxis with adamantine is effective in managing respiratory illness in residents of long-term care facilities. The rest of the strategies can be used in long-term care facilities, yet have limited evidence supporting their use from systematic reviews.

negative: How Is the World Responding to the Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Compared with the 2014 West African Ebola Epidemic? The Importance of China as a Player in the Global Economy This article describes similarities and differences in the response of governments and the international community to the current 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the 2014 West African Ebola epidemic. It expresses the opinion that the speed and scale of the response to COVID-19 are affected by the important role that China plays in the global economy. By contrast, insufficient and less timely action was initially undertaken in West African countries during the 2014 Ebola epidemic. It concludes by stating why preparedness for and response to all disease outbreaks, also in countries of lower economic importance, should become a priority in the global health agenda.

negative: First cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the WHO European Region, 24 January to 21 February 2020 In the WHO European Region, COVID-19 surveillance was implemented 27 January 2020. We detail the first European cases. As at 21 February, nine European countries reported 47 cases. Among 38 cases studied, 21 were linked to two clusters in Germany and France, 14 were infected in China. Median case age was 42 years; 25 were male. Late detection of the clusters’ index cases delayed isolation of further local cases. As at 5 March, there were 4,250 cases.

negative: [The biological characteristics of SARS virus and its related coronaviruses]. Cases of the life-threatening respiratory disease with no identified cause (designated as "severe acute respiratory syndrome", SARS, in March 2003) were first reported in late 2002 from Guangdong Province, China; they were followed by reports from about other 30 countries (or regions) such as Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong (China), Canada, and USA etc. Because of its ongoing epidemic and high death rate, SARS has shined an intense spotlight all over the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) has promptly established a network of international laboratories consisting of 13 members around the 10 countries to facilitate the identification of the causative agent of SARS. A novel coronavirus, SARS virus, fulfilling all of Koch's postulates was announced to be the primary aetiological agent of SARS on April 16 by WHO shortly after the Canadian scientists released the full-length genome sequence of SARS virus (Tor2) on April 12. China is now facing a formidable task to fight SARS. In this article, we present a brief summary on the biological characteristics of coronavirus with its associated diseases, and make some suggestions on how to curb this outbreak and how to cure SARS disease based on the potential targets of this novel virus.

negative: Potential Maternal and Infant Outcomes from Coronavirus 2019-nCoV (SARS-CoV-2) Infecting Pregnant Women: Lessons from SARS, MERS, and Other Human Coronavirus Infections In early December 2019 a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause was identified in Wuhan, a city of 11 million persons in the People’s Republic of China. Further investigation revealed these cases to result from infection with a newly identified coronavirus, initially termed 2019-nCoV and subsequently SARS-CoV-2. The infection moved rapidly through China, spread to Thailand and Japan, extended into adjacent countries through infected persons travelling by air, eventually reaching multiple countries and continents. Similar to such other coronaviruses as those causing the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), the new coronavirus was reported to spread via natural aerosols from human-to-human. In the early stages of this epidemic the case fatality rate is estimated to be approximately 2%, with the majority of deaths occurring in special populations. Unfortunately, there is limited experience with coronavirus infections during pregnancy, and it now appears certain that pregnant women have become infected during the present 2019-nCoV epidemic. In order to assess the potential of the Wuhan 2019-nCoV to cause maternal, fetal and neonatal morbidity and other poor obstetrical outcomes, this communication reviews the published data addressing the epidemiological and clinical effects of SARS, MERS, and other coronavirus infections on pregnant women and their infants. Recommendations are also made for the consideration of pregnant women in the design, clinical trials, and implementation of future 2019-nCoV vaccines.

negative: Defining high-value information for COVID-19 decision-making Initial projections from the first generation of COVID-19 models focused public attention on worst-case scenarios in the absence of decisive policy action. These underscored the imperative for strong and immediate measures to slow the spread of infection. In the coming weeks, however, as policymakers continue enlisting models to inform decisions on COVID-19, answers to the most difficult and pressing policy questions will be much more sensitive to underlying uncertainties. In this study, we demonstrate a model-based approach to assessing the potential value of reducing critical uncertainties most salient to COVID-19 decision-making and discuss priorities for acquiring new data to reduce these uncertainties. We demonstrate how information about the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions could narrow prediction intervals around hospitalizations over the next few weeks, while information about the prevalence of undetected cases could narrow prediction intervals around the timing and height of the peak of the epidemic.

negative: Molecular Chaperone Hsp90 Is a Therapeutic Target for Noroviruses Human noroviruses (HuNoV) are a significant cause of acute gastroenteritis in the developed world, and yet our understanding of the molecular pathways involved in norovirus replication and pathogenesis has been limited by the inability to efficiently culture these viruses in the laboratory. Using the murine norovirus (MNV) model, we have recently identified a network of host factors that interact with the 5′ and 3′ extremities of the norovirus RNA genome. In addition to a number of well-known cellular RNA binding proteins, the molecular chaperone Hsp90 was identified as a component of the ribonucleoprotein complex. Here, we show that the inhibition of Hsp90 activity negatively impacts norovirus replication in cell culture. Small-molecule-mediated inhibition of Hsp90 activity using 17-DMAG (17-dimethylaminoethylamino-17-demethoxygeldanamycin) revealed that Hsp90 plays a pleiotropic role in the norovirus life cycle but that the stability of the viral capsid protein is integrally linked to Hsp90 activity. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both the MNV-1 and the HuNoV capsid proteins require Hsp90 activity for their stability and that targeting Hsp90 in vivo can significantly reduce virus replication. In summary, we demonstrate that targeting cellular proteostasis can inhibit norovirus replication, identifying a potential novel therapeutic target for the treatment of norovirus infections. IMPORTANCE HuNoV are a major cause of acute gastroenteritis around the world. RNA viruses, including noroviruses, rely heavily on host cell proteins and pathways for all aspects of their life cycle. Here, we identify one such protein, the molecular chaperone Hsp90, as an important factor required during the norovirus life cycle. We demonstrate that both murine and human noroviruses require the activity of Hsp90 for the stability of their capsid proteins. Furthermore, we demonstrate that targeting Hsp90 activity in vivo using small molecule inhibitors also reduces infectious virus production. Given the considerable interest in the development of Hsp90 inhibitors for use in cancer therapeutics, we identify here a new target that could be explored for the development of antiviral strategies to control norovirus outbreaks and treat chronic norovirus infection in immunosuppressed patients.

negative: An overview of coronaviruses including the SARS-2 coronavirus – Molecular biology, epidemiology and clinical implications Abstract Coronavirus infections have emerged as epidemic and pandemic threats in last two decades. After the H1N1 influenza pandemic in 2009, recently diagnosed novel betacoronavirus or severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 has spread across 203 countries and territories in all 5 major continents. World Health Organization (WHO) declared this as a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020. Subsequently on February 11, 2020 a new name was given to this disease i.e. COVID-19 by an expert group from WHO. As of April 12, 2020, 10:00 CET, GMT+2:00, 1,696,588 confirmed cases and 105,952 confirmed deaths have been reported to the WHO. (Coronavirus disease 2019, situation report 83). It possibly originated from a small animal market in Wuhan, China. A cluster of patients were admitted with unusual pneumonia not responding to treatment in various hospitals. Epidemiological, genomic analysis and correlation with other coronaviruses led to the isolation of new coronavirus, closely resembling the bat coronaviruses, from such patients in Wuhan. They were identified as the SARS-CoV-2. This virus infection presents as influenza like illness in the affected people. Fever, cough, respiratory distress with fatigue, diarrhea, nausea and vomiting are common symptoms seen in adults. This may progress on to respiratory distress, hypoxia, need for oxygen supplementation and ventilator support as seen in patients in the SARS-CoV-1 epidemic (2003) in Guangdong, China. The transmissibility of SARS-CoV-1 was less as compared to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and it was well controlled with good public health efforts. The present COVID-19 epidemic is still in the acceleration phase of 3 and 4 in various countries. Without any effective antiviral agents available at present, the need of the hour is early case detection, isolation of cases, use of good preventive care measures by the household contacts and in the hospital set up. The results of ongoing clinical trials on hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin alone or in combination and a new antiviral agent remdesivir may help to treat some of the infections. A need for effective vaccine is being seen an as good preventive strategy in this pandemic. However the results of clinical trials and incorporation of vaccines in public health programs is a long way to go.

negative: GIS in Health and Human Services The chapter begins with a general overview of how GIS has evolved in the health and human services over the last several decades providing readers with important definitions and descriptions (Sects. 29.1, 29.2). Sections 29.3, 29.4 uncovers how GIS became an important tool for epidemiologists in the work of tracking infectious diseases and perfecting the study of population health. Readers will also learn that GIS adoption by hospital marketers and planners in the United States accelerated rapidly after the 1970, when US Census data became relatively freely available in digital form. The importance of the legendary work of the Dartmouth Health Care Atlas Project and its founder Jack Wennberg. In areas where high GIS adoption rates occurred, such as in public health, we feature key applications such as immunization management, disease tracking, outbreak analysis, disease surveillance, syndromic surveillance, emergency preparedness and response, community health assessment, environmental health, chronic disease prevention, and animal and veterinary health. The final Sect. 29.5 describes how GIS education has expanded across the academic fields of public health, healthcare administration, and social services. It is pointed out that the material presented in this chapter is not intended to be an exhaustive examination of the history of GIS, but rather, a brief introduction and overview which will generate further interest and self-discovery.

negative: Anesthetic Management of Patients with COVID 19 Infections during Emergency Procedures Objectives The aim of the present study was to prevent cross-infection in the operating room during emergency procedures for patients with confirmed or suspected 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by following anesthesia management protocols, and to document clinical- and anesthesia-related characteristics of these patients. Design This was a retrospective, multicenter clinical study. Setting This study used a multicenter dataset from 4 hospitals in Wuhan, China. Participants Patients and health care providers with confirmed or suspected 2019-nCoV from January 23 to 31, 2020, at the Wuhan Union Hospital, the Wuhan Children's Hospital, The Central Hospital of Wuhan, and the Wuhan Fourth Hospital in Wuhan, China. Interventions Anesthetic management and infection control guidelines for emergency procedures for patients with suspected 2019-nCoV were drafted and applied in 4 hospitals in Wuhan. Measurements and Main Results Cross-infection in the operating rooms of the 4 hospitals was effectively reduced by implementing the new measures and procedures. The majority of patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection or suspected infection were female (23 [62%] of 37), and the mean age was 41.0 years old (standard deviation 19.6; range 4-78). 10 (27%) patients had chronic medical illnesses, including 4 (11%) with diabetes, 8 (22%) with hypertension, and 8 (22%) with digestive system disease. Twenty-five (68%) patients presented with lymphopenia, and 23 (62%) patients exhibited multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity on computed tomography scanning. Conclusions The present study indicates that COVID 19–specific guidelines for emergency procedures for patients with confirmed or suspected 2019-nCoV may effectively prevent cross-infection in the operating room. Most patients with confirmed or suspected COVID 19 presented with fever and dry cough and demonstrated bilateral multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity on chest computed tomography scans.

negative: Impact of multiplex respiratory virus testing on antimicrobial consumption in adults in acute care: a randomized clinical trial Abstract Objectives Inappropriate use of antibiotics is associated with development of antimicrobial resistance. In respiratory infections it is often difficult to differentiate between viral and bacterial infections, and empirical treatment is common. Enhanced viral testing is expected to clarify clinical decision-making and reduce the prescription of antibacterial agents, but the impact of such information on patient care is unclear. Methods We conducted a (1:1) randomized controlled clinical trial involving 998 adults with respiratory symptoms, fever, chest pain or poor general condition in the emergency unit of a tertiary hospital. Multiplex PCR results for 496 patients were available in 24 hours (intervention group) and those for the remaining 502 patients were available in 7 days (control group). Our primary outcome measures were the duration of hospitalization and the consumption of antibiotics within 30 days of enrolment. Results In all, 841 of 998 (84%) patients had respiratory symptoms at study entry. A respiratory virus was detected in 175 (17.5%). The mean duration of hospitalization was 4.2 days (SD 5.4) in the intervention group and 4.1 days (SD 4.9) in the control group (difference 0.1, 95% CI –0.5 to 0.6, p 0.810). The mean days on antibiotics were 11.3 days (SD 12.6) in the intervention group and 10.4 days (SD 11.4) in the control group (difference 0.9, 95% CI –0.6 to 2.4, p 0.235). Conclusions Multiplex PCR testing for respiratory viruses with results available within 24 hours did not reduce the consumption of bacterial antibiotics or the length of hospital stay in adults presenting with respiratory symptoms, fever, chest pain or reduced general condition in acute care.

negative: A catalyst for transforming health systems and person-centred care: Canadian national position statement on patient-reported outcomes. Background Patient-reported outcomes (pros) are essential to capture the patient's perspective and to influence care. Although pros and pro measures are known to have many important benefits, they are not consistently being used and there is there no Canadian pros oversight. The Position Statement presented here is the first step toward supporting the implementation of pros in the Canadian health care setting. Methods The Canadian pros National Steering Committee drafted position statements, which were submitted for stakeholder feedback before, during, and after the first National Canadian Patient Reported Outcomes (canpros) scientific conference, 14-15 November 2019 in Calgary, Alberta. In addition to the stakeholder feedback cycle, a patient advocate group submitted a section to capture the patient voice. Results The canpros Position Statement is an outcome of the 2019 canpros scientific conference, with an oncology focus. The Position Statement is categorized into 6 sections covering 4 theme areas: Patient and Families, Health Policy, Clinical Implementation, and Research. The patient voice perfectly mirrors the recommendations that the experts reached by consensus and provides an overriding impetus for the use of pros in health care. Conclusions Although our vision of pros transforming the health care system to be more patient-centred is still aspirational, the Position Statement presented here takes a first step toward providing recommendations in key areas to align Canadian efforts. The Position Statement is directed toward a health policy audience; future iterations will target other audiences, including researchers, clinicians, and patients. Our intent is that future versions will broaden the focus to include chronic diseases beyond cancer.

negative: COVID-19 Scenarios: an interactive tool to explore the spread and associated morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused large outbreaks around the world and every heavily affected community has experienced a substantial strain on the health care system and a high death toll. Communities therefore have to monitor the incidence of COVID-19 carefully and attempt to project the demand for health care. To enable such projections, we have developed an interactive web application that simulates an age-structured SEIR model with separate compartments for severely and critically ill patients. The tool allows the users to modify most parameters of the model, including age specific assumptions on severity. Infection control and mitigation measures that reduce transmission can be specified, as well as age-group specific isolation. The simulation of the model runs entirely on the client side in the browser; all parameter settings and results of the simulation can be exported for further downstream analysis. The tool is available at covid19-scenarios.org and the source code at github.com/neherlab/covid19_scenarios.

negative: Predicting infectious SARS-CoV-2 from diagnostic samples BACKGROUND: RT-PCR has become the primary method to diagnose viral diseases, including SARS-CoV-2. RT-PCR detects RNA, not infectious virus, thus its ability to determine duration of infectivity of patients is limited. Infectivity is a critical determinant in informing public health guidelines/interventions. Our goal was to determine the relationship between E gene SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from respiratory samples, symptom onset to test (STT) and infectivity in cell culture. METHODS: In this retrospective cross-sectional study, we took SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR confirmed positive samples and determined their ability to infect Vero cell lines. RESULTS: Ninety RT-PCR SARS-CoV-2 positive samples were incubated on Vero cells. Twenty-six samples (28.9%) demonstrated viral growth. Median TCID50/ml was 1780 (282-8511). There was no growth in samples with a Ct > 24 or STT > 8 days. Multivariate logistic regression using positive viral culture as a binary predictor variable, STT and Ct demonstrated an odds ratio for positive viral culture of 0.64 (95% CI 0.49-0.84, p<0.001) for every one unit increase in Ct. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for Ct vs. positive culture was OR 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.97, p<0.001), with 97% specificity obtained at a Ct of >24. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 Vero cell infectivity was only observed for RT-PCR Ct < 24 and STT < 8 days. Infectivity of patients with Ct >24 and duration of symptoms >8 days may be low. This information can inform public health policy and guide clinical, infection control and occupational health decisions. Further studies of larger size are needed.

negative: [Effectiveness of the implementation of clinical-epidemiological management during Covid-19 in a medium-long-stay hospital.] OBJECTIVE The effects of the Covid-19 health emergency have demonstrated the high vulnerability of people residing in medium and long-stay centers, with high mortality rates. Little data is available about contingency protocols to minimize the spread of the virus in these centers. The goal of this study was to describe the clinical and epidemiological features of patients affected by SARS-CoV-2 and the preventive and management measures adopted at the National Hospital for Paraplegics (Toledo, Castilla-La Mancha, Spain) to minimize the risk of transmission of Covid-19. METHODS A team of specialists in Preventive and Internal Medicine established a protocol for active surveillance, identification of suspected and confirmed cases, and follow-up of contacts. Also, a Unit for the care of confirmed cases was created with personnel specifically trained in Covid-19, to achieve better patient care and optimize the available resources. Descriptive statistical measures have been used to analyze the data. RESULTS The prevalence of Covid-19 was 12.2%, with a cumulative incidence of 8.2%. After the protocol was established, control of the disease was achieved without hospital transmission after its application. Due to the alarm generated at the start of the pandemic, up to 45% of the requested RT-PCRs did not meet the criteria of the Ministry of Health, all of which were negative. The clinical characteristics of our patients differed slightly from those observed in other studies published in the general population, with cough and asthenia being the most frequent symptoms, present in 69.2% and 38.5%, respectively. 100% of the infected patients did not present complications that required assistance in the Intensive Care Unit. CONCLUSIONS With the application of preventive and organizational actions, we consider that we have presented a low incidence of those infected. The preparation of protocols and their supervision is essential for the rapid identification of cases and optimization of the tests requested. Despite being a medium and long-stay hospital, we have not presented any mortality or complications that required admission to the Intensive Care Unit.

negative: Preliminary epidemiological analysis on children and adolescents with novel coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei Province, China: an observational study utilizing crowdsourced data Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to expand across the world. Though both the number of cases and mortality rate in children and adolescents is reported to be low in comparison to adults, limited data has been reported on the outbreak with respect to pediatric patients. To elucidate information, we utilized crowdsourced data to perform a preliminary epidemiologic analysis of pediatric patients with COVID-19 Methods: In this observational study, data was collected from two open-access, line list crowdsourced online databases. Pediatric cases of COVID-19 were defined as patients ≤19 years of age with a laboratory confirmed diagnosis. The primary outcomes were case counts and cumulative case counts. Secondary outcomes included days between symptoms onset and first medical care and days between first medical care and reporting. Tertiary outcomes were rate of travel to Wuhan, rate of infected family members and rates of symptoms. Results: A total of 82 patients were included. The median age was 10 [IQR: 5-15] years. Patients from mainland China (outside Hubei) accounted for 46.3% of cases, while the remaining 53.7% of cases were international. Males and females accounted for 52.4% and 32.9% of cases, respectively, with the remaining 14.6% being designated as unknown. A male skew persisted across subgroup analyses by age group (p=1.0) and location (inside/outside China) (p=0.22). While the number of reported international cases has been steadily increasing over the study period, the number of reported cases in China rapidly decreased from the start point. The median reporting delay was 3 [IQR: 2-4.8] days. The median delay between symptom onset and first seeking medical care was 1 [IQR: 0-3.25] day. In international cases, time to first seeking medical care was a median of 2.5 days longer than in China (p=0.04). When clinical features were reported, fever was the most common presentation (68.0%), followed by cough (36.0%). Conclusions: The number of reported international pediatric COVID-19 cases is rapidly increasing. COVID-19 infections are, to-date, more common in males than females in both the children and adolescent age groups. Additionally, this male predominance remains the case both inside and outside of China. Crowdsourced data enabled early analysis of epidemiologic variables in pediatric patients with COVID-19. Further data sharing is required to enable analyses that are required to understand the course of this infection in children.

negative: Knowledge synthesis from 100 million biomedical documents augments the deep expression profiling of coronavirus receptors The COVID-19 pandemic demands assimilation of all available biomedical knowledge to decode its mechanisms of pathogenicity and transmission. Despite the recent renaissance in unsupervised neural networks for decoding unstructured natural languages, a platform for the real-time synthesis of the exponentially growing biomedical literature and its comprehensive triangulation with deep omic insights is not available. Here, we present the nferX platform for dynamic inference from over 45 quadrillion possible conceptual associations extracted from unstructured biomedical text, and their triangulation with Single Cell RNA-sequencing based insights from over 25 tissues. Using this platform, we identify intersections between the pathologic manifestations of COVID-19 and the comprehensive expression profile of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor ACE2. We find that tongue keratinocytes, airway club cells, and ciliated cells are likely underappreciated targets of SARS-CoV-2 infection, in addition to type II pneumocytes and olfactory epithelial cells. We further identify mature small intestinal enterocytes as a possible hotspot of COVID-19 fecal-oral transmission, where an intriguing maturation-correlated transcriptional signature is shared between ACE2 and the other coronavirus receptors DPP4 (MERS-CoV) and ANPEP (α-coronavirus). This study demonstrates how a holistic data science platform can leverage unprecedented quantities of structured and unstructured publicly available data to accelerate the generation of impactful biological insights and hypotheses. The nferX Platform Single-cell resource - https://academia.nferx.com/

negative: Treatment adherence of patients with systemic rheumatic diseases in COVID-19 pandemic

negative: China's fight against COVID-19: What we have done and what we should do next? Background: On 12 March, the World Health Organization Director-General declared that "the threat of a global pandemic has become a reality", and the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19, has become a global concern. Chinese efforts in curbing the virus have widely been recognized. Even the WHO has lauded the efforts of the Chinese government and advised the world to learn from China in fighting the disease. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, to curb the spread of the epidemic, the Chinese government has implemented unprecedented prevention interventions at the nationwide level. Currently, the outbreak in Wuhan is changing in a positive direction and has been effectively controlled. However, it is not clear what these measures were and how these measures changed to curb the outbreak of COVID-19 quickly. This study explored the characteristics and identified that China's control strategies have changed the epidemiological curve of rapidly rising new confirmed cases of COVID-19. This study also seeks to expand the experiences and lessons from this outbreak. Methods: We collected public health interventions measures from Jan 20, 2020, to 5 March 2020, and data from COVID-19 daily newly confirmed cases and daily cumulates cases to compare the control effects and changing trends. We performed a retrospective description of these intervention strategies from three stages. Besides, from the perspective of public health, the experiences and lessons exposed by this outbreak were roughly summarized. Results: These non-pharmacology interventions measures adopted by the Chinese government by the instruction and spirit of President Xi Jinping were timely and efficient. Conclusions: The present study was conducted to comprehensively analyze from a social epidemiology context. The results confirmed that these radical interventions taken by the Chinese government were effective, ambitious, and agile. However, we must be aware that the epidemic situation in Wuhan is still challenging. Keywords: China; COVID-19; intervention measures; change features, lessons

negative: SARS-CoV-2 proteome microarray for mapping COVID-19 antibody interactions at amino acid resolution COVID-19 has quickly become a worldwide pandemic, which has significantly impacted the economy, education, and social interactions. Understanding the humoral antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 proteins may help identify biomarkers that can be used to detect and treat COVID-19 infection. However, no immuno-proteomics platform exists that can perform such proteome-wide analysis. To address this need, we created a SARS-CoV-2 proteome microarray to analyze antibody interactions at amino acid resolution by spotting peptides 15 amino acids long with 5-amino acid offsets representing full-length SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Moreover, the array processing time is short (1.5 hours), the dynamic range is ~2 orders of magnitude, and the lowest limit of detection is 94 pg/mL. Here, the SARS-CoV-2 proteome array reveals that antibodies commercially available for SARS-CoV-1 proteins can also target SARS-CoV-2 proteins. These readily available reagents could be used immediately in COVID-19 research. Second, IgM and IgG immunogenic epitopes of SARS-CoV-2 proteins were profiled in the serum of ten COVID-19 patients. Such epitope biomarkers provide insight into the immune response to COVID-19 and are potential targets for COVID-19 diagnosis and vaccine development. Finally, serological antibodies that may neutralize viral entry into host cells via the ACE2 receptor were identified. Further investigation into whether these antibodies can inhibit the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 is warranted. Antibody and epitope profiling in response to COVID-19 is possible with our peptide-based SARS-COV-2 proteome microarray. The data gleaned from the array could provide invaluable information to the scientific community to understand, detect, and treat COVID-19.

negative: A Review of Acute Myocardial Injury in Coronavirus Disease 2019 In December 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), occurred in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, and it has spread rapidly across the world, causing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Although SARS-CoV-2 infection predominantly results in pulmonary issues, accumulating evidence suggests the increased frequency of a variety of cardiovascular complications in patients with COVID-19. Acute cardiac injury, defined as elevated cardiac troponin levels, is the most reported cardiac abnormality in COVID-19 and strongly associated with mortality. In this article, we summarize the currently available data on the association of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 with acute myocardial injury.

negative: [An increased neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio is an early warning signal of severe COVID-19]. OBJECTIVE To identify the biomarkers as early warning signals for severe COVID-19. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 63 patients with COVID- 19 from Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, including 32 moderate cases and 31 severe cases. The demographic data, underlying diseases, clinical manifestations and laboratory test results were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors that predicted the severity of COVID-19. The receiver- operating characteristic curve (ROC) of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was calculated, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined to estimate the optimal threshold of NLR for predicting severe cases of COVID-19. RESULTS The patients with moderate and server COVID-19 showed significant differences in the rate of diabetes, NLR, serum amyloid A (SSA), C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin (ALB) levels (P < 0.05). The co- morbidity of diabetes, NLR, SSA and CRP were found to positively correlate and ALB to inversely correlate with the severity of COVID-19 (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent risk factor for severe COVID-19 (OR=1.264, 95% CI: 1.046-1.526, P=0.015) with an AUC of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.730-0.932), an optimal diagnostic threshold of 4.795, a sensitivity of 0.839, and a specificity of 0.750. CONCLUSIONS An increased NLR can serve as an early warning signal of severe COVID-19.

negative: Incubation period of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infections among travellers from Wuhan, China, 20–28 January 2020 A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6–7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): current status and future perspectives ABSTRACT Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) originated in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, Central China, and has spread quickly to 72 countries to date. COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus, named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [previously provisionally known as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)]. At present, the newly identified SARS-CoV-2 has caused a large number of deaths with tens of thousands of confirmed cases worldwide, posing a serious threat to public health. However, there are no clinically approved vaccines or specific therapeutic drugs available for COVID-19. Intensive research on the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2 is urgently needed to elucidate the pathogenic mechanisms and epidemiological characteristics and to identify potential drug targets, which will contribute to the development of effective prevention and treatment strategies. Hence, this review will focus on recent progress regarding the structure of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of COVID-19, such as the aetiology, pathogenesis and epidemiological characteristics.

negative: Suppression of innate antiviral response by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus M protein is mediated through the first transmembrane domain Coronaviruses have developed various measures to evade innate immunity. We have previously shown that severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus M protein suppresses type I interferon (IFN) production by impeding the formation of functional TRAF3-containing complex. In this study, we demonstrate that the IFN-antagonizing activity is specific to SARS coronavirus M protein and is mediated through its first transmembrane domain (TM1) located at the N terminus. M protein from human coronavirus HKU1 does not inhibit IFN production. Whereas N-linked glycosylation of SARS coronavirus M protein has no influence on IFN antagonism, TM1 is indispensable for the suppression of IFN production. TM1 targets SARS coronavirus M protein and heterologous proteins to the Golgi apparatus, yet Golgi localization is required but not sufficient for IFN antagonism. Mechanistically, TM1 is capable of binding with RIG-I, TRAF3, TBK1 and IKKε, and preventing the interaction of TRAF3 with its downstream effectors. Our work defines the molecular architecture of SARS coronavirus M protein required for suppression of innate antiviral response.

negative: Therapeutic Application of Chloroquine in Clinical Trials for COVID-19 The novel corona virus disease -2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused a massive global public health havoc. Recent clinical trials carried out in China has found a promising therapeutic application of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. This study meticulously evaluated the various dosages of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine utilized in clinical trials registered in Chinese and US clinical trial registries for the treatment of pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2.

negative: Pulmonary embolism in COVID-19. When nothing is what it seems

negative: Clinical care for severe influenza and other severe illness in resource‐limited settings: the need for evidence and guidelines The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic highlighted the importance of quality hospital care of the severely ill, yet there is evidence that the impact of the 2009 pandemic was highest in low‐ and middle‐income countries with fewer resources. Recent data indicate that death and suffering from seasonal influenza and severe illness in general are increased in resource‐limited settings. However, there are limited clinical data and guidelines for the management of influenza and other severe illness in these settings. Life‐saving supportive care through syndromic case management is used successfully in high‐resource intensive care units and in global programs such as the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI). While there are a variety of challenges to the management of the severely ill in resource‐limited settings, several new international initiatives have begun to develop syndromic management strategies for these environments, including the World Health Organization's Integrated Management of Adult and Adolescent Illness Program. These standardized clinical guidelines emphasize syndromic case management and do not require high‐resource intensive care units. These efforts must be enhanced by quality clinical research to provide missing evidence and to refine recommendations, which must be carefully integrated into existing healthcare systems. Realizing a sustainable, global impact on death and suffering due to severe influenza and other severe illness necessitates an ongoing and concerted international effort to iteratively generate, implement, and evaluate best‐practice management guidelines for use in resource‐limited settings.

negative: Molecular mechanisms of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus that leads to deleterious pulmonary pathological features. Due to its high morbidity and mortality and widespread occurrence, SARS has evolved as an important respiratory disease which may be encountered everywhere in the world. The virus was identified as the causative agent of SARS due to the efforts of a WHO-led laboratory network. The potential mutability of the SARS-CoV genome may lead to new SARS outbreaks and several regions of the viral genomes open reading frames have been identified which may contribute to the severe virulence of the virus. With regard to the pathogenesis of SARS, several mechanisms involving both direct effects on target cells and indirect effects via the immune system may exist. Vaccination would offer the most attractive approach to prevent new epidemics of SARS, but the development of vaccines is difficult due to missing data on the role of immune system-virus interactions and the potential mutability of the virus. Even in a situation of no new infections, SARS remains a major health hazard, as new epidemics may arise. Therefore, further experimental and clinical research is required to control the disease.

negative: Clinical features and outcomes of 221 patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China Rationale: In late December 2019, an outbreak of acute respiratory illness, now officially named as COVID-19, or coronavirus disease 2019, emerged in Wuhan, China, now spreading across the whole country and world. More data were needed to understand the clinical characteristics of the disease. Objectives: To study the epidemiology, clinical features and outcomes of patients with COVID-19. Methods: we performed a single center, retrospective case series study in 221 patients with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia at a university hospital. Measurements and Main Results: The median age was 55.0 years and 48.9% were male and only 8 (3.6%) patients had a history of exposure to the Huanan Seafood Market. Compared to the non-severe pneumonia patients, the median age of the severe patients was significantly older, and they were more likely to have chronic comorbidities. Most common symptoms in severe patients were high fever, anorexia and dyspnea. On admission, 33.0% patients showed leukopenia and 73.8% showed lymphopenia. In addition, the severe patients suffered a higher rate of co-infections with bacteria or fungus and they were more likely to developing complications. As of February 15, 2020, 19.0% patients had been discharged and 5.4% patients died. 80% of severe cases received ICU care, and 52.3% of them transferred to the general wards due to relieved symptoms, and the mortality rate of severe patients in ICU was 20.5%. Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic spreads rapidly by human-to-human transmission. Patients with elder age, chronic comorbidities, blood leukocyte/lymphocyte count, procalcitonin level, co-infection and severe complications might increase the risk of poor clinical outcomes. Keywords: coronavirus disease 2019; clinical features; outcomes; severe patients

negative: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate As new cases of COVID-19 are being confirmed pressure is mounting to increase understanding of the factors underlying the spread the disease. Using data on local transmissions until the 23rd of March 2020, we develop an ensemble of 200 ecological niche models to project monthly variation in climate suitability for spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout a typical climatological year. Although cases of COVID-19 are reported all over the world, most outbreaks display a pattern of clustering in relatively cool and dry areas. The predecessor SARS-CoV-1 was linked to similar climate conditions. Should the spread of SARS CoV-2 continue to follow current trends, asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks could be expected. According to the models, temperate warm and cold climates are more favorable to spread of the virus, whereas arid and tropical climates are less favorable. However, model uncertainties are still high across much of sub- Saharan Africa, Latin America and South East Asia. While models of epidemic spread utilize human demography and mobility as predictors, climate can also help constrain the virus. This is because the environment can mediate human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and unsuitable climates can cause the virus to destabilize quickly, hence reducing its capacity to become epidemic.

negative: Canadian Geriatrics in the Time of COVID-19

negative: Physiotherapy management for COVID-19 in the acute hospital setting: clinical practice recommendations Abstract This document outlines recommendations for physiotherapy management for COVID-19 in the acute hospital setting. It includes: recommendations for physiotherapy workforce planning and preparation; a screening tool for determining requirement for physiotherapy; and recommendations for the selection of physiotherapy treatments and personal protective equipment. It is intended for use by physiotherapists and other relevant stakeholders in the acute care setting caring for adult patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19.

negative: A model to forecast regional demand for COVID-19 related hospital beds COVID-19 threatens to overwhelm hospital facilities throughout the United States. We created an interactive, quantitative model that forecasts demand for COVID-19 related hospitalization based on county-level population characteristics, data from the literature on COVID-19, and data from online repositories. Using this information as well as user inputs, the model estimates a time series of demand for intensive care beds and acute care beds as well as the availability of those beds. The online model is designed to be intuitive and interactive so that local leaders with limited technical or epidemiological expertise may make decisions based on a variety of scenarios. This complements high-level models designed for public consumption and technically sophisticated models designed for use by epidemiologists. The model is actively being used by several academic medical centers and policy makers, and we believe that broader access will continue to aid community and hospital leaders in their response to COVID-19. Link to online model: https://surf.stanford.edu/covid-19-tools/covid-19/

negative: Locally Informed Simulation to Predict Hospital Capacity Needs During the COVID-19 Pandemic BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic challenges hospital leaders to make time-sensitive, critical decisions about clinical operations and resource allocations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the timing of surges in clinical demand and the best- and worst-case scenarios of local COVID-19–induced strain on hospital capacity, and thus inform clinical operations and staffing demands and identify when hospital capacity would be saturated. DESIGN: Monte Carlo simulation instantiation of a susceptible, infected, removed (SIR) model with a 1-day cycle. SETTING: 3 hospitals in an academic health system. PATIENTS: All people living in the greater Philadelphia region. MEASUREMENTS: The COVID-19 Hospital Impact Model (CHIME) (http://penn-chime.phl.io) SIR model was used to estimate the time from 23 March 2020 until hospital capacity would probably be exceeded, and the intensity of the surge, including for intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators. RESULTS: Using patients with COVID-19 alone, CHIME estimated that it would be 31 to 53 days before demand exceeds existing hospital capacity. In best- and worst-case scenarios of surges in the number of patients with COVID-19, the needed total capacity for hospital beds would reach 3131 to 12 650 across the 3 hospitals, including 338 to 1608 ICU beds and 118 to 599 ventilators. LIMITATIONS: Model parameters were taken directly or derived from published data across heterogeneous populations and practice environments and from the health system's historical data. CHIME does not incorporate more transition states to model infection severity, social networks to model transmission dynamics, or geographic information to account for spatial patterns of human interaction. CONCLUSION: Publicly available and designed for hospital operations leaders, this modeling tool can inform preparations for capacity strain during the early days of a pandemic. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: University of Pennsylvania Health System and the Palliative and Advanced Illness Research Center.

negative: The Use of Decision Modelling to Inform Timely Policy Decisions on Cardiac Resource Capacity during the COVID-19 Pandemic. In Ontario, on March 16(th), 2020, a directive was issued to all acute care hospitals to halt non-essential procedures in anticipation for a potential surge in COVID-19 patients. This included scheduled outpatient cardiac surgical and interventional procedures that required the use of intensive care units, ventilators, and skilled critical care personnel, given that these procedures would draw from the same pool of resources required for critically ill COVID-19 patients. We adapted the COVID-19 Resource Estimator (CORE) decision analytic model by adding a cardiac component to determine the impact of various policy decisions on the incremental waitlist growth and estimated waitlist mortality for three key groups of cardiovascular disease patients; coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, and arrhythmias. We provided predictions based on COVID-19 epidemiology available in real-time, in 3 phases. First, in the initial crisis phase, in a worst case scenario, we showed that the potential number of waitlist related cardiac deaths would be orders of magnitude less than those who would die of COVID-19 if critical cardiac care resources were diverted to the care of COVID-19 patients. Second, with better local epidemiology data, we predicted that across five regions of Ontario, there may be insufficient resources to resume all elective outpatient cardiac procedures. Finally in the recovery phase, we showed that the estimated incremental growth in waitlist for all cardiac procedures is likely substantial. These outputs informed timely, data-driven decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic regarding the provision of cardiovascular care.

negative: Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in COVID19 cases European healthcare systems face extreme pressure from COVID-19. We estimate such pressure by relating both country-specific accumulated COVID-19 deaths (intensity-approach) and active COVID-19 cases (magnitude-approach) to measures of healthcare system capacity: hospital beds, healthcare workers and healthcare expenditure. On March 25, 2020 - relative to Italy on March 11- we found Spain, The Netherlands and France to experience the highest pressure using the intensity-approach with a composite measure for healthcare capacity. For updates see www.covid-hcpressure.org

negative: Toronto’s Health Department in Action: Influenza in 1918 and SARS in 2003 This article compares the Toronto Health Department’s role in controlling the 1918 influenza epidemic with its activities during the SARS outbreak in 2003 and concludes that local health departments are the foundation for successful disease containment, provided that there is effective coordination, communication, and capacity. In 1918, Toronto’s MOH Charles Hastings was the acknowledged leader of efforts to contain the disease, care for the sick, and develop an effective vaccine, because neither a federal health department nor an international body like WHO existed. During the SARS outbreak, Hastings’s successor, Sheela Basrur, discovered that nearly a decade of underfunding and new policy foci such as health promotion had left the department vulnerable when faced with a potential epidemic. Lack of cooperation by provincial and federal authorities added further difficulties to the challenge of organizing contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation for suspected and probable cases and providing information and reassurance to the multi-ethnic population. With growing concern about a flu pandemic, the lessons of the past provide a foundation for future communicable disease control activities.

negative: Preventing Infection of Patients and Healthcare Workers Should Be the New Normal in the Era of Novel Coronavirus Epidemics

negative: Intensive Care Unit Preparedness During Pandemics and Other Biological Threats In the twenty-first century, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), 2009 A(H1N1) influenza, and Ebola have all placed strains on critical care systems. In addition to the increased patient needs common to many disasters, epidemics may further degrade ICU capability when staff members fall ill, including in the course of direct patient care. In a large-scale pandemic, shortages of equipment and medications can further limit an ICU’s ability to provide the normal standard of care. Hospital preparedness for epidemics must include strategies to maintain staff safety, secure adequate supplies, and have plans for triage and prioritization of care when necessary.

negative: Cardiovigilance in COVID 19 The COVID19 (Corona Virus Disease: pandemic started in 2019) pandemic has created not only a public health problem, but as a clinical challenge as well. To the cardiologist, COVID 19 presents a wide spectrum of possibilities for clinical decision-making intervention and improvement. Cardiac dysfunction has been identified as a risk factor, a prognostic factor, a diagnostic tool, differential diagnosis, a complication of COVID 19, and a side effect of its treatment. Certain cardiotropic drugs have been implicated in the pathogenesis of COVID 19. The risk of transmission of COVID 19 is an occupational hazard which cannot be ignored by cardiologists. This review discusses the need and scope of cardio vigilance in COVID 19 management.

negative: Urgent need for individual mobile phone and institutional reporting of at home, hospitalized, and intensive care unit cases of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection Approximately 90 days of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) spreading originally from Wuhan, China, and across the globe has led to a widespread chain of events with imminent threats to the fragile relationship between community health and economic health. Despite near hourly reporting on this crisis, there has been no regular, updated, or accurate reporting of hospitalizations for COVID-19. It is known that many test-positive individuals may not develop symptoms or have a mild self-limited viral syndrome consisting of fever, malaise, dry cough, and constitutional symptoms. However some individuals develop a more fulminant syndrome including viral pneumonia, respiratory failure requiring oxygen, acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation, and in substantial fractions leading to death attributable to COVID-19. The pandemic is evolving in a clustered, non-inform fashion resulting in many hospitals with preparedness but few or no cases, and others that are completely overwhelmed. Thus, a considerable risk of spread when personal protection equipment becomes exhausted and a large fraction of mortality in those not offered mechanical ventilation are both attributable to a crisis due to maldistribution of resources. The pandemic is amenable to self-reporting through a mobile phone application that could obtain critical information on suspected cases and report on the results of self testing and actions taken. The only method to understand the clustering and the immediate hospital resource needs is mandatory, uniform, daily reporting of hospital censuses of COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital wards and intensive care units. Current reports of hospitalizations are delayed, uncertain, and wholly inadequate. This paper urges all the relevant stakeholders to take up self-reporting and reporting of hospitalizations of COVID-19 as an urgent task in combating this devastating pandemic.

negative: Continuous porcine cell lines developed from alveolar macrophages Partial characterization and virus susceptibility Abstract Porcine monomyeloid cell lines were established following transfection of primary porcine alveolar macrophage cultures with plasmid pSV3neo, carrying genes for neomycin resistance and SV40 large T antigen. The parental clone 3D4 exhibited a relatively rapid doubling time (25.5 h), high plating efficiency and mixed phenotype with respect to growth on a solid support. Single cell cloning of the 3D4 parent resulted in establishment of several cell lines; three of them designated 3D4/2, 3D4/21 and 3D4/31 were selected for further characterization. All three clones supported the replication of vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), pseudorabies virus (PRV), classical swine fever virus (CSFV), swine vesicular disease virus (SVDV), swine poxvirus, African swine fever virus (ASFV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), parainfluenza virus, bovine adenovirus (BAV), vaccinia virus (VV), and porcine adenovirus (PAV). Under the conditions tested the cells did not support replication of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). The swine myeloid character was confirmed for all three clones by fluorescence activated cell scanning (FACS) analysis using monoclonal antibodies 74-22-15 and DH59B, which recognize the pan-myeloid antigen cluster SWC3a. A subpopulation of each cell line was positive for nonspecific esterase activity and phagocytic activity to varying degrees depending on the media formulation. Cells from all three lines exhibited anchorage dependent growth when maintained in RPMI 1640 medium supplemented with 5–15% fetal bovine serum (FBS) and nonessential amino acids. Propagation in commercially formulated serum free media resulted in colony formation and growth in suspension. The addition of dimethyl sulfoxide (DMSO) or phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA) to serum free media restored cell attachment. DMSO was also able to induce expression of CD14 monocyte marker in the 3D4/31 cell line maintained in FBS containing medium, as determined by FACS with monoclonal antibody CAM36A. Supplementation of RPMI medium with 10% porcine serum upregulated the expression of CD14 and induced expression of porcine macrophage markers recognized by antibodies 2B10 and 2G6 (Vet. Immunol. Immunopathol. 74 (2000) 163) in all three cell lines. The porcine myelomonocytic cell lines obtained may have a wide variety of applications in porcine virology and immunology.

negative: The potential impact of COVID-19 on the Canadian Resident Matching Service: Unique future challenges faced by urology residency programs and applicants.

negative: The prevalence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) antibodies in dromedary camels in Israel Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV, was identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and as of January 29, 2018, there were 2,123 laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases reported to WHO (WHO, 2018, https://www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/). Multiple studies suggest that dromedary camels are a source for human MERS-CoV infection. MERS-CoV-specific antibodies have been detected in the serum of dromedary camels across Northern Africa and across the Arabian Peninsula. Israel’s geographic location places Israel at risk for MERS-CoV infection. To date, MERS-CoV-related illness has not been reported and the burden of MERS-CoV infection in the Israeli population is unknown. The seroprevalence of MERS-CoV-specific antibodies in Israeli dromedary camels is unknown. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of MERS-CoV seropositivity in dromedary camels in Israel. The prevalence of MERS-CoV antibodies in Israeli camels was examined in 71 camel sera collected from four farms across Israel by MERS-CoV-specific microneutralization (Mnt) assay and confirmed by MERS-CoV-specific immunofluorescence assay (IFA). Although this study cannot rule out potential antibody cross-reactivity by IFA, the presence of bovine coronavirus-specific antibodies do not appear to impact detection of MERS-CoV antibodies by Mnt. MERS-CoV neutralizing antibodies were detectable in 51 (71.8%) camel sera, and no association was observed between the presence of neutralizing antibodies and camel age or gender. These findings extend the known range of MERS-CoV circulation in Middle Eastern camels. The high rate of MERS-CoV-specific antibody seropositivity in dromedary camels in the absence of any reported human MERS cases suggests that there is still much to be learned about the dynamics of camel-to-human transmission of MERS-CoV.

negative: Policies and practices of SHEA Research Network hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic To understand hospital policies and practices as the COVID-19 pandemic accelerated, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America (SHEA) conducted a survey through the SHEA Research Network (SRN). The survey assessed policies and practices around the optimization of personal protection equipment (PPE), testing, healthcare personnel policies, visitors of COVID-19 patients in relation to procedures, and types of patients. Overall, 69 individual healthcare facilities responded in the United States and internationally, for a 73% response rate.

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and pregnancy The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia pandemic, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is spreading globally at an accelerated rate, with a basic reproduction number (R0) of 2–2.5, indicating that 2–3 persons will be infected from an index patient. A serious public health emergency, it is particularly deadly in vulnerable populations and communities in which healthcare providers are insufficiently prepared to manage the infection. As of March 16, 2020, there are more than 180,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide, with more than 7000 related deaths. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has been isolated from asymptomatic individuals, and affected patients continue to be infectious 2 weeks after cessation of symptoms. The substantial morbidity and socioeconomic impact have necessitated drastic measures across all continents, including nationwide lockdowns and border closures. Pregnant women and their fetuses represent a high-risk population during infectious disease outbreaks. To date, the outcomes of 55 pregnant women infected with COVID-19 and 46 neonates have been reported in the literature, with no definite evidence of vertical transmission. Physiological and mechanical changes in pregnancy increase susceptibility to infections in general, particularly when the cardiorespiratory system is affected, and encourage rapid progression to respiratory failure in the gravida. Furthermore, the pregnancy bias toward T-helper 2 (Th2) system dominance, which protects the fetus, leaves the mother vulnerable to viral infections, which are more effectively contained by the Th1 system. These unique challenges mandate an integrated approach to pregnancies affected by SARS-CoV-2. Here we present a review of COVID-19 in pregnancy, bringing together the various factors integral to the understanding of pathophysiology and susceptibility, diagnostic challenges with real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays, therapeutic controversies, intrauterine transmission, and maternal−fetal complications. We discuss the latest options in antiviral therapy and vaccine development, including the novel use of chloroquine in the management of COVID-19. Fetal surveillance, in view of the predisposition to growth restriction and special considerations during labor and delivery, is addressed. In addition, we focus on keeping frontline obstetric care providers safe while continuing to provide essential services. Our clinical service model is built around the principles of workplace segregation, responsible social distancing, containment of cross-infection to healthcare providers, judicious use of personal protective equipment, and telemedicine. Our aim is to share a framework that can be adopted by tertiary maternity units managing pregnant women in the flux of a pandemic while maintaining the safety of the patient and healthcare provider at its core.

negative: The expert COVID-19 team for older persons of the Quebec Health and Social Services Ministry

negative: If Everything Has Changed, Why Such a Focus on Bailing Out Capitalism? The Somber Reality Underpinning Covid-19

negative: Early diagnosis of radiodermatitis using lactate dehydrogenase isozymes in hairless mice (SKH1-hr) In this study, we evaluate a method for the early diagnosis of radiodermatitis for use in the prevention and therapy of this condition. Hairless mice (SKH1-hr) were used to study the early diagnosis of radiodermatitis. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, EC 1.1.1.27) isozymes were analyzed using native-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis and western blotting of blood serum and tissues collected from SKH1-hr mice. Radiodermatitis developed 24 days after the first X-irradiation. Reduced spleen weight was observed after the last X-irradiation (P<0.05). Thereafter the weight increased until 24 days after the first irradiation, finally reaching levels comparable to those in the sham-irradiated control group. LDH activity was the highest in skeletal muscle and lowest in blood serum. LDH C(4), A(4), A(3)B, A(2)B(2), AB(3), and B(4) isozymes were detected, in the mentioned order, from the cathode. This result was similar in other mouse strains. In the irradiated group, LDH A(4) isozyme levels were reduced in the serum until inflammation occurred, whereas those of B(4) isozyme were elevated. The subunits A and B followed a similar trend to that of LDH A(4) and B(4) isozyme, respectively. Importantly, antibodies against LDH B(4) isozyme could prove useful in the early diagnosis of radiodermatitis.

negative: Use of CT and artificial intelligence in suspected or COVID-19 positive patients: statement of the Italian Society of Medical and Interventional Radiology The COVID-19 pandemic started in Italy in February 2020 with an exponential growth that has exceeded the number of cases reported in China. Italian radiology departments found themselves at the forefront in the management of suspected and positive COVID cases, both in diagnosis, in estimating the severity of the disease and in follow-up. In this context SIRM recommends chest X-ray as first-line imaging tool, CT as additional tool that shows typical features of COVID pneumonia, and ultrasound of the lungs as monitoring tool. SIRM recommends, as high priority, to ensure appropriate sanitation procedures on the scan equipment after detecting any suspected or positive COVID-19 patients. In this emergency situation, several expectations have been raised by the scientific community about the role that artificial intelligence can have in improving the diagnosis and treatment of coronavirus infection, and SIRM wishes to deliver clear statements to the radiological community, on the usefulness of artificial intelligence as a radiological decision support system in COVID-19 positive patients. (1) SIRM supports the research on the use of artificial intelligence as a predictive and prognostic decision support system, especially in hospitalized patients and those admitted to intensive care, and welcomes single center of multicenter studies for a clinical validation of the test. (2) SIRM does not support the use of CT with artificial intelligence for screening or as first-line test to diagnose COVID-19. (3) Chest CT with artificial intelligence cannot replace molecular diagnosis tests with nose-pharyngeal swab (rRT-PCR) in suspected for COVID-19 patients.

negative: Methods Using Social Media and Search Queries to Predict Infectious Disease Outbreaks OBJECTIVES: For earlier detection of infectious disease outbreaks, a digital syndromic surveillance system based on search queries or social media should be utilized. By using real-time data sources, a digital syndromic surveillance system can overcome the limitation of time-delay in traditional surveillance systems. Here, we introduce an approach to develop such a digital surveillance system. METHODS: We first explain how the statistics data of infectious diseases, such as influenza and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in Korea, can be collected for reference data. Then we also explain how search engine queries can be retrieved from Google Trends. Finally, we describe the implementation of the prediction model using lagged correlation, which can be calculated by the statistical packages, i.e., SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences). RESULTS: Lag correlation analyses demonstrated that search engine data/Twitter have a significant temporal relationship with influenza and MERS data. Therefore, the proposed digital surveillance system can be used to predict infectious disease outbreaks earlier. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction method could be the core engine for implementing a (near-) real-time digital surveillance system. A digital surveillance system that uses Internet resources has enormous potential to monitor disease outbreaks in the early phase.

negative: A Focused Ethnographic Study of Alberta Cattle Veterinarians’ Decision Making about Diagnostic Laboratory Submissions and Perceptions of Surveillance Programs The animal and public health communities need to address the challenge posed by zoonotic emerging infectious diseases. To minimize the impacts of future events, animal disease surveillance will need to enable prompt event detection and response. Diagnostic laboratory-based surveillance systems targeting domestic animals depend in large part on private veterinarians to submit samples from cases to a laboratory. In contexts where pre-diagnostic laboratory surveillance systems have been implemented, this group of veterinarians is often asked to input data. This scenario holds true in Alberta where private cattle veterinarians have been asked to participate in the Alberta Veterinary Surveillance Network-Veterinary Practice Surveillance, a platform to which pre-diagnostic disease and non-disease case data are submitted. Consequently, understanding the factors that influence these veterinarians to submit cases to a laboratory and the complex of factors that affect their participation in surveillance programs is foundational to interpreting disease patterns reported by laboratories and engaging veterinarians in surveillance. A focused ethnographic study was conducted with ten cattle veterinarians in Alberta. Individual in-depth interviews with participants were recorded and transcribed to enable thematic analysis. Laboratory submissions were biased toward outbreaks of unknown cause, cases with unusual mortality rates, and issues with potential herd-level implications. Decreasing cattle value and government support for laboratory testing have contributed to fewer submissions over time. Participants were willing participants in surveillance, though government support and collaboration were necessary. Changes in the beef industry and veterinary profession, as well as cattle producers themselves, present both challenges and opportunities in surveillance.

negative: New regulatory strategies to manage medicines shortages in Europe Abstract Medicine shortages have been spreading in European countries. In many cases, the unavailability of medicinal products has a substantial impact on the capability of National Healthcare Systems in ensuring the continuity of care. Shortages originate from multifactorial causes. In particular, they can be due to supply-related factors (e.g., manufacturing issues, regulatory issues, logistics, distribution) and demand-related ones (e.g., fluctuating drug demand, parallel market, tendering, price and reimbursement policies). However, some extraordinary geopolitical events (e.g., Brexit) may also affect medicines’ availability. The capability of European Regulatory Authorities and other stakeholders, which are involved in the pharmaceutical distribution chain and the healthcare assistance services, to define suitable problem-solving strategies has been limited for years by the fragmentation of the European regulatory framework, starting from the lack of a univocal definition of a medicine shortage. Only in 2019, the EMA and HMA joint task force released the first harmonized “shortage” definition in the European Economic Area (EEA) and guidance on public communication. This manuscript aims to review the current European regulatory framework on medicine shortages. To support the activities of regulators, manufacturers and other healthcare professionals, an algorithm was also proposed to be used as a harmonized procedure to determine the shortage/unavailability impact on public health and to rationalize the problem-solving strategies adopted in all different settings.

negative: Protecting High-Risk Cardiac Patients During the COVID-19 Outbreak

negative: Implications of COVID-19 for patients with pre-existing digestive diseases

negative: A Cluster of Health Care Workers with COVID-19 Pneumonia Caused by SARS-CoV-2 Abstract Background The current outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, Hubei, China, spreads across national and international borders. Methods We prospectively collected medical records of 14 health care workers (HCWs) who were infected with SARS-CoV-2, in neurosurgery department of Wuhan Union Hospital, China. Results Among the 14 HCWs, 12 were conformed cases, the other 2 were suspected cases. Most of them were either exposed to the two index patients or infected coworkers, without knowing they were COVID-19 patients. There were 4 male and 10 female infected HCWs in this cohort, whose mean age was 36 years (SD, 6 years). The main symptoms included myalgia or fatigue (100%), fever (86%) and dry cough (71%). On admission, 79% of infected HCWs showed leucopenia and 43% lymphopenia. Reduced complement C3 could be seen in 57% of the infected HCWs and IL-6 was significently elevated in 86% of them. The proportion of lymphocytes subsets, concentrations of immunoglobulins, complement C4, IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, TNF-α and IFN-γ were within normal range in these 14 infected HCWs. The most frequent findings on pulmonary computed tomographic images were bilateral multifocal ground-glass opacifications (86%). Conclusions Human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 pneumonia has occurred among HCWs, and most of these infected HCWs with confirmed COVID-19 are mild cases. Our data suggest that in the epidemic area of COVID-19, stringent and urgent surveillance and infection-control measures should be implemented to protect doctors and nurses from COVID-19 infection.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Emerging and Future Challenges for Dental and Oral Medicine The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), originating in Wuhan, China, has become a major public health challenge for not only China but also countries around the world. The World Health Organization announced that the outbreaks of the novel coronavirus have constituted a public health emergency of international concern. As of February 26, 2020, COVID-19 has been recognized in 34 countries, with a total of 80,239 laboratory-confirmed cases and 2,700 deaths. Infection control measures are necessary to prevent the virus from further spreading and to help control the epidemic situation. Due to the characteristics of dental settings, the risk of cross infection can be high between patients and dental practitioners. For dental practices and hospitals in areas that are (potentially) affected with COVID-19, strict and effective infection control protocols are urgently needed. This article, based on our experience and relevant guidelines and research, introduces essential knowledge about COVID-19 and nosocomial infection in dental settings and provides recommended management protocols for dental practitioners and students in (potentially) affected areas.

negative: The Effects of "Fangcang, Huoshenshan, and Leishenshan" Makeshift Hospitals and Temperature on the Mortality of COVID-19 Background In December 2019, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China, however, the factors affecting the mortality remain unclear. Methods Thirty-two days of data that were shared by China National Health Commission and China Weather Net were collected using standard forms. The difference in the mortality of confirmed and severe cases before and after the use of Fangcang, Huoshenshan, and Leishenshan makeshift hospitals (MSHs) was tested using Mann-Whitney U test. We also studied whether air temperature (AT) could affect the above outcomes of COVID-19 cases by performing Spearman analysis. Results The mortality of confirmed cases was significantly decreased both in Wuhan (U = 1, P < 0.001) and Hubei (U = 0, P < 0.001), while in non-Hubei regions, as a contrast, the mortality of confirmed cases remained unchanged (U = 40, P = 0.139). However, another eight days later, changes in the mortality in non-Hubei regions also became significant (U = 73, P = 0.039). Mortality of confirmed cases was found to be significantly correlated with temperature both in Wuhan (r = -0.441, P = 0.012) and Hubei (r = -0.440, P = 0.012). Conclusions Our findings indicated that both the use of MSHs and the rise of AT were beneficial to the survival of COVID-19 cases.

negative: 2007 Guideline for Isolation Precautions: Preventing Transmission of Infectious Agents in Health Care Settings

negative: Mouse Hepatitis Virus This chapter attempts to provide an overview of the important aspects of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) experimental biology while emphasizing the virus as a naturally occurring mouse pathogen. Even this is complicated, as it is impossible to generalize with this virus, due to marked differences in the biologic behavior of the myriad virus strains, plus the marked effects of a large number of host factors. It is now known that the MHV group is represented by numerous variants that are constantly mutating, and that these viruses can be biologically separated into respiratory (polytropic) MHVs and enterotropic MHVs, with distinctly different patterns of tissue tropism. This dichotomy is emphasized for discussion, but biology is never absolute. Many of the early MHV isolations are made as a result of contamination of biological materials that correlated with their polytropic biologic behavior. Their stated tropisms frequently were the result of the investigators' research interests and many have therefore been subjected to selective passage that favors a particular tissue tropism. All MHV isolates are related genetically and antigenically, but isolates can be differentiated by genetic sequencing, cross-serum neutralization, or with monoclonal antibodies. Genetic and antigenic relationships are not predictive of biologic behavior.

negative: Characteristics of COVID-19 infection in Beijing Abstract Background Since the first case of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection pneumonia was detected in Wuhan, China, a series of confirmed cases of the COVID-19 were found in Beijing. We analyzed the data of 262 confirmed cases to determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Beijing. Methods We collected patients who were transferred by Beijing Emergency Medical Service to the designated hospitals. The information on demographic, epidemiological, clinical, laboratory test for the COVID-19 virus, diagnostic classification, cluster case and outcome were obtained. Furthermore we compared the characteristics between severe and common confirmed cases which including mild cases, no-pneumonia cases and asymptomatic cases, and we also compared the features between COVID-19 and 2003 SARS. Findings By Feb 10, 2020, 262 patients were transferred from the hospitals across Beijing to the designated hospitals for special treatment of the COVID-19 infected by Beijing emergency medical service. Among of 262 patients, 46 (17.6%) were severe cases, 216 (82.4%) were common cases, which including 192 (73.3%) mild cases, 11(4.2%) non-pneumonia cases and 13 (5.0%) asymptomatic cases respectively. The median age of patients was 47.5 years old and 48.5% were male. 192 (73.3%) patients were residents of Beijing, 50 (26.0%) of which had been to Wuhan, 116 (60.4%) had close contact with confirmed cases, 21 (10.9%) had no contact history. The most common symptoms at the onset of illness were fever (82.1%), cough (45.8%), fatigue (26.3%), dyspnea (6.9%) and headache (6.5%). The median incubation period was 6.7 days, the interval time from between illness onset and seeing a doctor was 4.5 days. As of Feb 10, 17.2% patients have discharged and 81.7% patients remain in hospital in our study, the fatality of COVID-19 infection in Beijing was 0.9%. Interpretation On the basis of this study, we provided the ratio of the COVID-19 infection on the severe cases to the mild, asymptomatic and non-pneumonia cases in Beijing. Population was generally susceptible, and with a relatively low fatality rate. The measures to prevent transmission was very successful at early stage, the next steps on the COVID-19 infection should be focused on early isolation of patients and quarantine for close contacts in families and communities in Beijing. Funding Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission and Ministry of Science and Technology.

negative: Epidemiology and clinical features of emergency department patients with suspected COVID-19: Initial results from the COVED Quality Improvement Project (COVED-1). OBJECTIVE The COVID-19 Emergency Department (COVED) Quality Improvement Project aims to provide regular and real-time clinical information to ED clinicians caring for patients with suspected and confirmed COVID-19. This paper summarises data from the first two weeks of the study. METHODS COVED is an ongoing prospective cohort study that commenced on 1 April 2020. It includes all adult patients presenting to a participating ED who undergo testing for SARS-Cov-2. Data are collected prospectively and entered into a bespoke registry. Outcomes include a positive SARS-Cov-2 PCR test result and requirement for intensive respiratory support. RESULTS In the period 1-14 April 2020, 240 (16%) of 1508 patients presenting to The Alfred Emergency & Trauma Centre met inclusion criteria. Of these, 11 (5%) tested positive for SARS-Cov-2. The mean age of patients was 60 years and the commonest symptoms were acute shortness of breath (122 [67%]), cough (108 [56%]) or fever (98 [51%]). Overseas travel or known contact with a confirmed case was reported by 24 (14%) and 16 (10%), respectively. Fever or hypoxia was recorded in 23 (10%) and 11 (5%) patients respectively. Eleven patients (5%) received mechanical ventilation in the ED, of whom none tested positive for SARS-Cov-2. CONCLUSIONS Among patients presenting to a tertiary ED with suspected COVID-19, only a small proportion tested positive for SARS-Cov-2. Although the low incidence of positive cases currently precludes the development of predictive tools, the COVED Project demonstrates that the rapid establishment of an agile clinical registry for emergency care is feasible.

negative: Fatalism in the context of COVID-19: Perceiving coronavirus as a death sentence predicts reluctance to perform recommended preventative behaviors() To manage the spread of coronavirus, health entities have urged the public to take preventative measures such as social distancing and handwashing. Yet, many appear reluctant to take these measures. Research is needed to understand factors underlying such reluctance, with the aim of developing targeted health interventions. We identify associating coronavirus with death as one such factor. 590 participants completed surveys in mid-March 2020, which included attitudes toward coronavirus, preventative behavioral intentions, and sociodemographic factors. Associating coronavirus with death negatively predicted intentions to perform preventative behaviors. Further, associating coronavirus with death was not evenly distributed throughout the sample and was related with a number of sociodemographic factors including age, race, and availability of sick leave. Following recommended preventative measures to slow the spread of coronavirus appears to relate to the degree to which people associate coronavirus with death. These findings can be used by public health researchers and practitioners to identify those for whom targeted health communication and interventions would be most beneficial, as well as to frame health messaging in ways that combat fatalism.

negative: Public health education at China’s higher education institutions: a time-series analysis from 1998 to 2012 BACKGROUND: Although China’s modern education for public health was developing over the past 60 years, there is a lack of authoritative statistics and analyses on the nation’s development of education for public health at higher education institutions (HEIs). Few quantitative studies on this topic have been published in domestic and international peer-reviewed journals. To address this knowledge gap, we aimed to use national data to quantitatively analyse the scale, structure, and changes of public health education in China’s HEIs, and to compare the changes of public health education with those of other health science disciplines. METHODS: This study uses previously unreleased national data provided by the Ministry of Education of China that includes the number of health professional students by school and major. The data, which spans from 1998 to 2012, are descriptively analyzed. RESULTS: The number of HEIs for public health education per 100 million population increased from 7.2 in 1998 to 11.3 in 2012. The total enrolment, number of students, and number of graduates increased at rates of 7.3, 7.4, and 5.8% per year, respectively. The percentage of junior college students dropped drastically from 24.0 to 8.4% from 1998 to 2012. During that same period, the number of undergraduates, master and doctorate students increased. Undergraduates accounted for the majority of public health graduates (63.1%) in 2012, and master and doctorate students increased by 10.0 and 5.1 times, respectively, from 1998 to 2012. The relative percentage of public health enrollment, students, and graduates to all health education disciplines dropped from about 6.0% percent in 1998 to around 2% in 2012. CONCLUSIONS: The overall scale of public health education has clearly expanded, though at a slower pace than many other health science disciplines in China. The increase of public health graduates helped to address the previous shortage of public health professionals. Gradually adopting a modern model of education, public health education in China has undergone notable changes that may be informative to other developing countries though it still faces a complex situation in terms of graduates’ adherence to public health, student recruitment, teaching and training, program planning and reform.

negative: Pangolins Harbor SARS-CoV-2-Related Coronaviruses The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 has posed a severe threat to global public health. Yet, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 remains mysterious. Several recent studies (e.g., Lam et al ., Xiao et al .) identified SARS-CoV-2-related viruses in pangolins, providing novel insights into the evolution and diversity of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses.

negative: Digital Surveillance: A Novel Approach to Monitoring the Illegal Wildlife Trade A dearth of information obscures the true scale of the global illegal trade in wildlife. Herein, we introduce an automated web crawling surveillance system developed to monitor reports on illegally traded wildlife. A resource for enforcement officials as well as the general public, the freely available website, http://www.healthmap.org/wildlifetrade, provides a customizable visualization of worldwide reports on interceptions of illegally traded wildlife and wildlife products. From August 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011, publicly available English language illegal wildlife trade reports from official and unofficial sources were collected and categorized by location and species involved. During this interval, 858 illegal wildlife trade reports were collected from 89 countries. Countries with the highest number of reports included India (n = 146, 15.6%), the United States (n = 143, 15.3%), South Africa (n = 75, 8.0%), China (n = 41, 4.4%), and Vietnam (n = 37, 4.0%). Species reported as traded or poached included elephants (n = 107, 12.5%), rhinoceros (n = 103, 12.0%), tigers (n = 68, 7.9%), leopards (n = 54, 6.3%), and pangolins (n = 45, 5.2%). The use of unofficial data sources, such as online news sites and social networks, to collect information on international wildlife trade augments traditional approaches drawing on official reporting and presents a novel source of intelligence with which to monitor and collect news in support of enforcement against this threat to wildlife conservation worldwide.

negative: Characteristics of Health Care Personnel with COVID-19 - United States, February 12-April 9, 2020 As of April 9, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had resulted in 1,521,252 cases and 92,798 deaths worldwide, including 459,165 cases and 16,570 deaths in the United States (1,2). Health care personnel (HCP) are essential workers defined as paid and unpaid persons serving in health care settings who have the potential for direct or indirect exposure to patients or infectious materials (3). During February 12-April 9, among 315,531 COVID-19 cases reported to CDC using a standardized form, 49,370 (16%) included data on whether the patient was a health care worker in the United States; including 9,282 (19%) who were identified as HCP. Among HCP patients with data available, the median age was 42 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 32-54 years), 6,603 (73%) were female, and 1,779 (38%) reported at least one underlying health condition. Among HCP patients with data on health care, household, and community exposures, 780 (55%) reported contact with a COVID-19 patient only in health care settings. Although 4,336 (92%) HCP patients reported having at least one symptom among fever, cough, or shortness of breath, the remaining 8% did not report any of these symptoms. Most HCP with COVID-19 (6,760, 90%) were not hospitalized; however, severe outcomes, including 27 deaths, occurred across all age groups; deaths most frequently occurred in HCP aged ≥65 years. These preliminary findings highlight that whether HCP acquire infection at work or in the community, it is necessary to protect the health and safety of this essential national workforce.

negative: 17th Annual Meeting, Neurocritical Care Society, October 15–18, 2019, Vancouver, Canada

negative: HHS/CDC Legal Response to SARS Outbreak Before the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) legal authority to apprehend, detain, or conditionally release persons was limited to seven listed diseases, not including SARS, and could only be changed using a two-step process: 1) executive order of the President of the United States on recommendation by the Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), and 2) amendment to CDC quarantine regulations (42 CFR Parts 70 and 71). In April 2003, in response to the SARS outbreak, the federal executive branch acted rapidly to add SARS to the list of quarantinable communicable diseases. At the same time, HHS amended the regulations to streamline the process of adding future emerging infectious diseases. Since the emergence of SARS, CDC has increased legal preparedness for future public health emergencies by establishing a multistate teleconference program for public health lawyers and a Web-based clearinghouse of legal documents.

negative: What have we learnt from SARS? With outbreaks of infectious disease emerging from animal sources, we have learnt to expect the unexpected. We were, and are, expecting a new influenza A pandemic, but no one predicted the emergence of an unknown coronavirus (CoV) as a deadly human pathogen. Thanks to the preparedness of the international network of influenza researchers and laboratories, the cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was rapidly identified, but there is no complacency over the global or local management of the epidemic in terms of public health logistics. The human population was lucky that only a small proportion of infected persons proved to be highly infectious to others, and that they did not become so before they felt ill. These were the features that helped to make the outbreak containable. The next outbreak of another kind of transmissible disease may well be quite different.

negative: COVID-19 in patients with cardiovascular diseases

negative: [Challenges of anesthesiology and intensive care for COVID-19 infection. Practical recommendation]. The treatment of COVID-19 infection poses an increasing challenge to the Hungarian healthcare system and, in particular, to the anesthesiology and intensive care professions responsible for the care of critically ill patients. An essential condition for effective care is to protect intensive care unit staff from the spread of infection during day-to-day patient care and to make knowledge about them widely known. Based on practical considerations, the authors summarize the most important organizational, treatment, and prevention tasks related to intensive care for COVID-19 patients. Orv Hetil. 2020; 161 (17): 652-659.

negative: Tracking the origin of early COVID-19 cases in Canada The original coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China has become a global pandemic. By tracking the earliest 118 COVID-19 cases in Canada, we produced a Voronoi treemap to show the travel origins of the country's earliest COVID-19 cases. By March 11, 2020, even though the majority (64.1%) of the world's COVID-19 confirmed cases still had their origin in China, only 7.6% of Canada's first 118 COVID-19 cases arose due in travelers to China. The most commonly reported travel history among the 118 cases originated from the Middle East, the United States, and Europe. Thus, in retrospect, broadening of early screening tools and travel restrictions to countries and regions outside China may help control global COVID-19 spread.

negative: Risk of infection and hospitalization by Covid-19 in Mexico: a case-control study Objective. During the onset of a novel epidemic, there are public health priorities that need to be estimated, such as risk factors for infection, hospitalization, and clinical severity to allocate resources and issue health policies. In this work we calculate the risk of infection and hospitalization by Covid-19 conferred by demographic, lifestyle, and co-morbidity factors. Material and methods. This is a case-control study including the tested individuals for SARS-Cov-2 by RT-PCR officially reported by the Health Secretary of Mexico from January 01 to May 8, 2020 (102,875 subjects). Demographic (sex, age, foreign and immigrant status, native speaking, place of residence), life-style (smoking), and co-morbidities [diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure (HBP), asthma, immunosuppression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), cardiovascular disease other than HBP, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and other not specified diseases (other diseases)] variables were included in this study. The risk of infection and hospitalization conferred by each variable was calculated with univariate (ULR) and multivariate (MLR) logistic regression models. Results. The place of residence (OR=4.91 living in Tijuana City), followed by advanced age (OR=6.71 in 61-70 years-old), suffering from diabetes (OR=1.87) or obesity (OR=1.61), being male (OR=1.55), having HBP (OR=1.52), and notoriously being indigenous (OR=1.49) conferred a higher risk of becoming infected by SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico. Unexpectedly, we found that having asthma (OR=0.63), immunosuppression (OR=0.65) or smoking (OR=0.85) are protective factors against infection, while suffering from COPD does not increase the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. In contrast, advanced age (OR=11.6 in [≥] 70 years-old) is the main factor for hospitalization due to Covid-19, followed by some co-morbidities, mainly diabetes (OR=3.69) and HBP (OR=2.79), being indigenous (OR=1.89), male sex (OR=1.67) and the place of residence (OR=4.22 for living in Juarez City). Unlike the protective risk against infection, immunosuppression (OR=2.69) and COPD (OR=3.63), contribute to the risk of being hospitalized, while having asthma (OR=0.7) also provides protection against hospitalization. Conclusions. In addition to confirming that older age, diabetes, HBP and obesity are the main risk of infection and hospitalization by Covid-19, we found that being indigenous, immunosuppression, smoking and asthma protect against infection, and the latter also against hospitalization.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome: global initiatives for disease diagnosis We present a retrospective analysis of the available articles on severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) published since the outbreak of the disease. SARS is a new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus. Originating in Guangdong, Southern China, at the end of 2002, it has spread to regions all over the world, affecting more than 8000 people. With high morbidity and mortality, SARS is an important respiratory disease which may be encountered world-wide. The causative virus was identified by a WHO-led network of laboratories, which identified the genome sequence and developed the first molecular assays for diagnosis. For the respiratory physician, detecting SARS in its earliest stages, identifying pathways of transmission, and implementing preventive and therapeutic strategies are all important. The WHO and the CDC have published helpful definitions of ‘suspected’ and ‘probable’ cases. However, the symptoms of the disease may change, and laboratory tests and definitions are still limited. Even in a situation of no new cases of infection, SARS remains a major respiratory health hazard. As with influenza virus outbreaks, new epidemics may arise at the end of each year.

negative: ¿Cumplimos correctamente los protocolos de prevención en oftalmología?: a propósito de la última epidemia por coronavirus

negative: Public Health Interventions and SARS Spread, 2003 The 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was contained largely through traditional public health interventions, such as finding and isolating case-patients, quarantining close contacts, and enhanced infection control. The independent effectiveness of measures to "increase social distance" and wearing masks in public places requires further evaluation. Limited data exist on the effectiveness of providing health information to travelers. Entry screening of travelers through health declarations or thermal scanning at international borders had little documented effect on detecting SARS cases; exit screening appeared slightly more effective. The value of border screening in deterring travel by ill persons and in building public confidence remains unquantified. Interventions to control global epidemics should be based on expert advice from the World Health Organization and national authorities. In the case of SARS, interventions at a country's borders should not detract from efforts to identify and isolate infected persons within the country, monitor or quarantine their contacts, and strengthen infection control in healthcare settings.

negative: Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Pneumonia 2019 (COVID-19): An Updated Systematic Review OBJECTIVE Clinical characteristics of novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) have been described in numerous studies but yielded varying results. We aimed to conduct a systematic review on scientific literatures and to synthesize critical data on clinical traits of COVID-19 from its initial outbreak to pandemic. METHODS Systematic searches were conducted to identify retrospective observational study that contained clinical characteristics on COVID-19 through multiple databases. Two reviewers independently evaluated eligible publications. Data on clinical characteristics of COVID-19 were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS Seventy-two retrospective studies demonstrating the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 were included. A total of 3470 COVID-19 patients were synthesized to the final analysis in an unbiased manner. The most common symptom was fever (2878 [83.0%]), and 63.4% of the patients presented fever as onset symptom. There were 2528 [88.2%] of 2866 cases had abnormal lung findings on chest CT scan. Laboratory findings showed that 1498 [62.8%] of 2387 cases had lymphopenia, and 1354 [64.8%] of 2091 cases had an increased level of C-reactive protein (CRP). A total of 185 [11.5%] patients were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) while the overall case fatality rate (CFR) was 3.7%. Compared to patients admitted outside of Hubei, China, those from Hubei had a significant higher ICU admission rate (21.9% vs. 2.5%, p<0.001). Also, CFR attributed to COVID-19 was significantly higher in Hubei than that of non-Hubei admissions (10.4% vs. 0.6%, p<0.001). INTERPRETATION This large patient-based systematic review presents a more precise profiling of the COVID-19 from its outbreak to current pandemic. Dynamic evolvements of COVID-19 are needed to be characterized in future studies.

negative: The response of Milan's Emergency Medical System to the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

negative: Rapid and accurate identification of COVID-19 infection through machine learning based on clinical available blood test results Since the sudden outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it has rapidly evolved into a momentous global health concern. Due to the lack of constructive information on the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and specific treatment, it highlights the importance of early diagnosis and timely treatment. In this study, 11 key blood indices were extracted through random forest algorithm to build the final assistant discrimination tool from 49 clinical available blood test data which were derived by commercial blood test equipments. The method presented robust outcome to accurately identify COVID-19 from a variety of suspected patients with similar CT information or similar symptoms, with accuracy of 0.9795 and 0.9697 for the cross-validation set and test set, respectively. The tool also demonstrated its outstanding performance on an external validation set that was completely independent of the modeling process, with sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy of 0.9512, 0.9697, and 0.9595, respectively. Besides, 24 samples from overseas infected patients with COVID-19 were used to make an in-depth clinical assessment with accuracy of 0.9167. After multiple verification, the reliability and repeatability of the tool has been fully evaluated, and it has the potential to develop into an emerging technology to identify COVID-19 and lower the burden of global public health. The proposed tool is well-suited to carry out preliminary assessment of suspected patients and help them to get timely treatment and quarantine suggestion. The assistant tool is now available online at http://lishuyan.lzu.edu.cn/COVID2019_2/.

negative: Variability in transmissibility of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Canadian communities BACKGROUND: The prevalence and severity of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic appeared to vary significantly across populations and geographic regions. We sought to investigate the variability in transmissibility of H1N1 pandemic in different health regions (including urban centres and remote, isolated communities) in the province of Manitoba, Canada. METHODS: The Richards model was used to fit to the daily number of laboratory-confirmed cases and estimate transmissibility (referred to as the basic reproduction number, R(0)), doubling times, and turning points of outbreaks in both spring and fall waves of the H1N1 pandemic in several health regions. RESULTS: We observed considerable variation in R(0 )estimates ranging from 1.55 to 2.24, with confidence intervals ranging from 1.45 to 2.88, for an average generation time of 2.9 days, and shorter doubling times in some remote and isolated communities compared to urban centres, suggesting a more rapid spread of disease in these communities during the first wave. For the second wave, R(e), the effective reproduction number, is estimated to be lower for remote and isolated communities; however, outbreaks appear to have been driven by somewhat higher transmissibility in urban centres. CONCLUSIONS: There was considerable geographic variation in transmissibility of the 2009 pandemic outbreaks. While highlighting the importance of estimating R(0 )for informing health responses, the findings indicate that projecting the transmissibility for large-scale epidemics may not faithfully characterize the early spread of disease in remote and isolated communities.

negative: COVID-19 Infection: Implications for Perioperative and Critical Care Physicians Healthcare systems worldwide are responding to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), an emerging infectious syndrome caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Patients with COVID-19 can progress from asymptomatic or mild illness to hypoxemic respiratory failure or multisystem organ failure, necessitating intubation and intensive care management. Healthcare providers, and particularly anesthesiologists, are at the frontline of this epidemic, and they need to be aware of the best available evidence to guide therapeutic management of patients with COVID-19 and to keep themselves safe while doing so. Here, the authors review COVID-19 pathogenesis, presentation, diagnosis, and potential therapeutics, with a focus on management of COVID-19–associated respiratory failure. The authors draw on literature from other viral epidemics, treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome, and recent publications on COVID-19, as well as guidelines from major health organizations. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence currently available to guide management of critically ill patients with COVID-19.

negative: What might the future bring? COVID-19 planning considerations for faculty and universities This paper applies a scenario planning approach, to outline some current uncertainties related to COVID-19 and what they might mean for plausible futures for which we should prepare, and to identify factors that we as individual faculty members and university institutions should be considering now, when planning for the future under COVID-19. Although the contextual focus of this paper is Canada, the content is likely applicable to other places where the COVID-19 epidemic curve is in its initial rising stage, and where universities are predominantly publicly funded institutions.

negative: Hospital Resource Utilization and Patient Outcomes Associated with Respiratory Viral Testing in Hospitalized Patients Testing patients for respiratory viruses should guide isolation precautions and provide a rationale for antimicrobial drug therapies, but few studies have evaluated these assumptions. To determine the association between viral testing, patient outcomes, and care processes, we identified adults hospitalized with respiratory symptoms from 2004 through 2012 at a large, academic, tertiary hospital in Canada. Viral testing was performed in 11% (2,722/24,567) of hospital admissions and was not associated with reduced odds for death (odds ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.76–1.10) or longer length of stay (+1 day for those tested). Viral testing resulted in more resource utilization, including intensive care unit admission, but positive test results were not associated with less antibiotic use or shorter duration of isolation. Results suggest that health care providers do not use viral test results in making management decisions at this hospital. Further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of respiratory infection control policies.

negative: Intensifying poultry production systems and the emergence of avian influenza in China: a ‘One Health/Ecohealth’ epitome Several kinds of pressure can lead to the emergence of infectious diseases. In the case of zoonoses emerging from livestock, one of the most significant changes that has taken place since the mid twentieth century is what has been termed the “livestock revolution”, whereby the stock of food animals, their productivity and their trade has increased rapidly to feed rising and increasingly wealthy and urbanized populations. Further increases are projected in the future in low and middle-income countries. Using avian influenza as an example, we discuss how the emergence of avian influenza H5N1 and H7N9 in China was linked to rapid intensification of the poultry sector taking place in landscapes rich in wetland agriculture and wild waterfowls habitats, providing an extensive interface with the wild reservoir of avian influenza viruses. Trade networks and live-poultry markets further exacerbated the spread and persistence of avian influenza as well as human exposure. However, as the history of emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) demonstrates in high-income countries such as the USA, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom or the Netherlands, this is by no way specific to low and middle-income countries. Many HPAI emergence events took place in countries with generally good biosecurity standards, and the majority of these in regions hosting intensive poultry production systems. Emerging zoonoses are only one of a number of externalities of intensive livestock production systems, alongside antimicrobial consumption, disruption of nutrient cycles and greenhouse gases emissions, with direct or indirect impacts on human health. In parallel, livestock production is essential to nutrition and livelihoods in many low-income countries. Deindustrialization of the most intensive production systems in high-income countries and sustainable intensifications in low-income countries may converge to a situation where the nutritional and livelihood benefits of livestock production would be less overshadowed by its negative impacts on human an ecosystem health.

negative: A severe influenza season in Austria and its impact on the paediatric population: mortality and hospital admission rates, november 2017 - march 2018 BACKGROUND: In Austria paediatric influenza-associated hospitalisations and deaths have never been systematically monitored. We examined the influenza season 2017/18 in terms of hospitalisation and mortality in the Austrian paediatric population and put the results into perspective of the available data from the last 15 years. METHODS: Cases of influenza-associated hospitalisations and deaths for season 2017/18 in children below 18 years were retrospectively collected from 12 and 33 Austrian hospitals, respectively. Hospitalisation and mortality rates for the whole Austrian paediatric population were estimated, adjusting for the population in each catchment area. Two Austrian databases were queried for hospitalisations and deaths associated with influenza during 2002–2016. Rough estimate of the vaccination coverage was calculated from a survey on 100 inpatients. RESULTS: Influenza-related paediatric hospitalisation rate in season 2017/18 was estimated as 128 (CI: 122–135) per 100,000 children, much higher than the national average of 40 per 100,000 over the years 2002–2016. There were nine reported influenza-associated deaths among children, resulting in mortality rate of 0.67 (CI: 0.32–1.21) per 100,000 children. CONCLUSIONS: Reported influenza-associated hospitalisations and fatalities demonstrate a high burden of influenza in the Austrian paediatric population corresponding with very low vaccination coverage.

negative: Biological Hazards and Select Agents The development of early guidance documents for safe work with biological hazards was driven in part by the efforts of the life sciences community itself and in part by federal agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health. However, developments in the late 1990s through the present day have prompted a dramatic expansion in the generation of specific federal regulations, with the most obvious example being the Federal Select Agent Regulations. This chapter focuses on identifying the most widely accepted guidance documents and key regulations pertaining to research with biological hazards, including guidance on proper containment and handling of biological hazards, importation of biological agents, and safe work with bloodborne pathogens, recombinant and synthetic nucleic acids, and select agents and toxins.

negative: SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) emerged in southern China in late 2002. It first spread within Guangdong Province and then to other parts of China. Via air travelers, it quickly reached various countries around the globe, causing several major hospital outbreaks. Within weeks, the causative agent, a previously unknown coronavirus (SARS-CoV), was identified, thanks to an unprecedented international effort led by the World Health Organization (WHO). Its origin was quickly traced to wild animals traded locally for culinary purposes. Masked palm civet and some other species seem to have acted as intermediate hosts. Since then, SARS-like coronaviruses were found in different bat species in China and elsewhere, and bats are now regarded as the wildlife reservoir for SARS-CoV. Fortunately, the SARS outbreak could be contained within months. Until July 2003, it had caused 8096 cases, with 774 deaths. Once adequate measures such as isolating patients and quarantining their contacts were strictly adhered to, further transmission between human beings could be interrupted. SARS is an example of how rapidly an infectious agent can spread in the modern world. At the same time, it should serve as a showcase of how international cooperation and modern science can help to combat the spread of infectious diseases.

negative: People with Suspected COVID-19 Symptoms Were More Likely Depressed and Had Lower Health-Related Quality of Life: The Potential Benefit of Health Literacy The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic affects people’s health and health-related quality of life (HRQoL), especially in those who have suspected COVID-19 symptoms (S-COVID-19-S). We examined the effect of modifications of health literacy (HL) on depression and HRQoL. A cross-sectional study was conducted from 14 February to 2 March 2020. 3947 participants were recruited from outpatient departments of nine hospitals and health centers across Vietnam. The interviews were conducted using printed questionnaires including participants’ characteristics, clinical parameters, health behaviors, HL, depression, and HRQoL. People with S-COVID-19-S had a higher depression likelihood (OR, 2.88; p < 0.001), lower HRQoL-score (B, −7.92; p < 0.001). In comparison to people without S-COVID-19-S and low HL, those with S-COVID-19-S and low HL had 9.70 times higher depression likelihood (p < 0.001), 20.62 lower HRQoL-score (p < 0.001), for the people without S-COVID-19-S, 1 score increment of HL resulted in 5% lower depression likelihood (p < 0.001) and 0.45 higher HRQoL-score (p < 0.001), while for those people with S-COVID-19-S, 1 score increment of HL resulted in a 4% lower depression likelihood (p = 0.004) and 0.43 higher HRQoL-score (p < 0.001). People with S-COVID-19-S had a higher depression likelihood and lower HRQoL than those without. HL shows a protective effect on depression and HRQoL during the epidemic.

negative: Interim Analysis of Risk Factors for Severe Outcomes among a Cohort of Hospitalized Adults Identified through the U.S. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) Background: As of May 15, 2020, the United States has reported the greatest number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths globally. Objective: To describe risk factors for severe outcomes among adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Design: Cohort study of patients identified through the Coronavirus Disease 2019-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network. Setting: 154 acute care hospitals in 74 counties in 13 states. Patients: 2491 patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during March 1-May 2, 2020. Measurements: Age, sex, race/ethnicity, and underlying medical conditions. Results: Ninety-two percent of patients had at least 1 underlying condition; 32% required intensive care unit (ICU) admission; 19% invasive mechanical ventilation; 15% vasopressors; and 17% died during hospitalization. Independent factors associated with ICU admission included ages 50-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ years versus 18-39 years (adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.53, 1.65, 1.84 and 1.43, respectively); male sex (aRR 1.34); obesity (aRR 1.31); immunosuppression (aRR 1.29); and diabetes (aRR 1.13). Independent factors associated with in-hospital mortality included ages 50-64, 65-74, 75-84 and 85+ years versus 18-39 years (aRR 3.11, 5.77, 7.67 and 10.98, respectively); male sex (aRR 1.30); immunosuppression (aRR 1.39); renal disease (aRR 1.33); chronic lung disease (aRR 1.31); cardiovascular disease (aRR 1.28); neurologic disorders (aRR 1.25); and diabetes (aRR 1.19). Race/ethnicity was not associated with either ICU admission or death. Limitation: Data were limited to patients who were discharged or died in-hospital and had complete chart abstractions; patients who were still hospitalized or did not have accessible medical records were excluded. Conclusion: In-hospital mortality for COVID-19 increased markedly with increasing age. These data help to characterize persons at highest risk for severe COVID-19-associated outcomes and define target groups for prevention and treatment strategies.

negative: Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil In January 2020 China reported to the World Health Organization an outbreak of pneumonia of undetermined origin in the city of Wuhan, Hubei. In January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Interest (PHEI). Objectives: The aim of this study is to assess the impact of a COVID-19 epidemic in the metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Methods: We used a generalized SEIR (Susceptibles, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, with additional Hospitalized variables (SEIHR model) and age-stratified structure to analyze the expected time evolution during the onset of the epidemic in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo. The model allows to determine the evolution of the number of cases, the number of patients admitted to hospitals and deaths caused by COVID-19. In order to investigate the sensibility of our results with respect to parameter estimation errors we performed Monte Carlo analysis with 100 000 simulations by sampling parameter values from an uniform distribution in the confidence interval. Results: We estimate 1 368 (IQR: 880, 2 407) cases, 301 (22%) in older people (more than 60 years), 81 (50, 143) hospitalizations, and 14 (9, 26) deaths in the first 30 days, and 38 583 (IQR: 16 698, 113, 163) cases, 8 427 (21.8%) in older people (more than 60 years), 2181 (914, 6392) hospitalizations, and 397(166, 1205) deaths in the first 60 days. Limitations: We supposed a constant transmission probability Pc among different age-groups, and that every severe and critic case will be hospitalized, as well as that the detection capacity in all the primary healthcare services does not change during the outbreak. Conclusion: Supposing the reported parameters in the literature apply in the city of Sao Paulo, our study shows that it is expected that the impact of a COVID-19 outbreak will be important, requiring special planning from the authorities. This is the first study for a major metropolitan center in the south hemisphere, and we believe it can provide policymakers with a prognosis of the burden of the pandemic not only in Brazil, but also in other tropical zones, allowing to estimate total cases, hospitalization, and deaths, in support to the management of the public health emergence caused by COVID-19.

negative: SARS in Hospital Emergency Room Thirty-one cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) occurred after exposure in the emergency room at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The index patient was linked to an outbreak at a nearby municipal hospital. Three clusters were identified over a 3-week period. The first cluster (5 patients) and the second cluster (14 patients) occurred among patients, family members, and nursing aids. The third cluster (12 patients) occurred exclusively among healthcare workers. Six healthcare workers had close contact with SARS patients. Six others, with different working patterns, indicated that they did not have contact with a SARS patient. Environmental surveys found 9 of 119 samples of inanimate objects to be positive for SARS coronavirus RNA. These observations indicate that although transmission by direct contact with known SARS patients was responsible for most cases, environmental contamination with the SARS coronavirus may have lead to infection among healthcare workers without documented contact with known hospitalized SARS patients.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019: Coronaviruses and Blood Safety Abstract With the outbreak of unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, a new coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), aroused the attention of the entire world. The current outbreak of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is termed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 in China as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Two other coronavirus infections—SARS in 2002-2003 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012—both caused severe respiratory syndrome in humans. All 3 of these emerging infectious diseases leading to a global spread are caused by β-coronaviruses. Although coronaviruses usually infect the upper or lower respiratory tract, viral shedding in plasma or serum is common. Therefore, there is still a theoretical risk of transmission of coronaviruses through the transfusion of labile blood products. Because more and more asymptomatic infections are being found among COVID-19 cases, considerations of blood safety and coronaviruses have arisen especially in endemic areas. In this review, we detail current evidence and understanding of the transmission of SARS-CoV, MERS–CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 through blood products as of February 10, 2020, and also discuss pathogen inactivation methods on coronaviruses.

negative: CSV2018: The 2nd Symposium of the Canadian Society for Virology The 2nd Symposium of the Canadian Society for Virology (CSV2018) was held in June 2018 in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, as a featured event marking the 200th anniversary of Dalhousie University. CSV2018 attracted 175 attendees from across Canada and around the world, more than double the number that attended the first CSV symposium two years earlier. CSV2018 provided a forum to discuss a wide range of topics in virology including human, veterinary, plant, and microbial pathogens. Invited keynote speakers included David Kelvin (Dalhousie University and Shantou University Medical College) who provided a historical perspective on influenza on the 100th anniversary of the 1918 pandemic; Sylvain Moineau (Université Laval) who described CRISPR-Cas systems and anti-CRISPR proteins in warfare between bacteriophages and their host microbes; and Kate O’Brien (then from Johns Hopkins University, now relocated to the World Health Organization where she is Director of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals), who discussed the underlying viral etiology for pneumonia in the developing world, and the evidence for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) as a primary cause. Reflecting a strong commitment of Canadian virologists to science communication, CSV2018 featured the launch of Halifax’s first annual Soapbox Science event to enable public engagement with female scientists, and the live-taping of the 499th episode of the This Week in Virology (TWIV) podcast, hosted by Vincent Racaniello (Columbia University) and science writer Alan Dove. TWIV featured interviews of CSV co-founders Nathalie Grandvaux (Université de Montréal) and Craig McCormick (Dalhousie University), who discussed the origins and objectives of the new society; Ryan Noyce (University of Alberta), who discussed technical and ethical considerations of synthetic virology; and Kate O’Brien, who discussed vaccines and global health. Finally, because CSV seeks to provide a better future for the next generation of Canadian virologists, the symposium featured a large number of oral and poster presentations from trainees and closed with the awarding of presentation prizes to trainees, followed by a tour of the Halifax Citadel National Historic Site and an evening of entertainment at the historic Alexander Keith’s Brewery.

negative: Featuring COVID-19 cases via screening symptomatic patients with epidemiologic link during flu season in a medical center of central Taiwan Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CO-V-2), was first reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China has now rapidly spread over 50 countries. For the prevention and control of infection, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control initiated testing of SARS-CoV-2 on January 24th 2020 for persons suspected with this disease. Until February 28th, 43 flu-like symptomatic patients were screened in China Medical University Hospital. Methods Two patients were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by rRT-PCR as COVID-19 patients A and B. Causative pathogens for included patients were detected using FilmArray™ Respiratory Panel. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical presentations, laboratory data, radiologic findings, and travel and exposure contact histories, of the COVID-19 patients in comparison to those with other respiratory infections. Results Through contact with Taiwan No. 19 case patient on 27th January, COVID-19 patients A and B were infected. Both patients had no identified comorbidities and developed mild illness with temporal fever, persistent cough, and lung interstitial infiltrates. Owing to the persistence of positive SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory specimen, the two COVID-19 patients are still in the isolation rooms despite recovery until 10th of March. The results of FilmArrayTM Respiratory Panel revealed 22 of the 41 non-COVID-19 patients were infected by particular pathogens. In general, seasonal respiratory pathogens are more prevalent than SARS-CoV-2 in symptomatic patients in non- COVID-19 endemic area during the flu season. Since all patients shared similar clinical and laboratory findings, expanded surveillance of detailed exposure history for suspected patients and application of rapid detection tools are highly recommended.

negative: The cardiovascular burden of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with a focus on congenital heart disease Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by a novel betacoronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was first described in a cluster of patients presenting with pneumonia symptoms in Wuhan, China, in December of 2019. Over the past few months, COVID-19 has developed into a worldwide pandemic, with over 400,000 documented cases globally as of March 24, 2020. The SARS-CoV-2 virus is most likely of zoonotic origin, but has been shown to have effective human-to-human transmission. COVID-19 results in mild symptoms in the majority of infected patients, but can cause severe lung injury, cardiac injury, and death. Given the novel nature of COVID-19, no established treatment beyond supportive care exists currently, but extensive public-health measures to reduce person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 have been implemented globally to curb the spread of disease, reduce the burden on healthcare systems, and protect vulnerable populations, including the elderly and those with underlying medical comorbidities. Since this is an emerging infectious disease, there is, as of yet, limited data on the effects of this infection on patients with cardiovascular disease, particularly so for those with congenital heart disease. We summarize herewith the early experience with COVID-19 and consider the potential applicability to and implications for patients with cardiovascular disease in general and congenital heart disease in particular.

negative: Assessing the infection prevention components of home health emergency management plans BACKGROUND: Home health emergency management plans are essential and must address infection prevention issues. Few home health planning documents exist, and many of those that have been developed do not address infection prevention issues, combine them with non–infection prevention issues, or are disease/event-specific. An all-encompassing home health infection prevention emergency management planning guide is needed. METHODS: A literature review and Internet search were conducted in the summer of 2010, and data from relevant sources were extracted. A spreadsheet was created delineating home health emergency management plan components related to infection prevention. RESULTS: Of the sources screened, 41 were deemed relevant. Ten domains were identified: (1) having a plan; (2) assessing agency readiness; (3) having infection prevention policies and procedures; (4) having occupational health policies and procedures; (5) conducting surveillance and triage; (6) reporting incidents, having a communication plan, and managing information; (7) addressing surge capacity issues; (8) having anti-infective therapy and/or vaccines; (9) providing infection prevention education; and (10) managing water and waste management issues. CONCLUSION: Home health disaster planners or managers should use this article as an assessment tool for evaluating their agency’s emergency management plan and for developing policies and procedures that will decrease the risk of infection transmission during a mass casualty event.

negative: ICT Intervention in the Containment of the Pandemic Spread of COVID-19: An Exploratory Study The objective of this article is to explore the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) interventions and its strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for the containment of the pandemic spread of novel Coronavirus. The research adopted a qualitative research approach, while the study data were collected through online content review and Focus Group Discussion (FGD). Starting with a preliminary set of about 1200 electronic resources or contents, 56 were selected for review study, applying an inclusion and exclusion criteria. The review study revealed ICT interventions that include websites and dashboards, mobile applications, robotics and drones, artificial intelligence (AI), data analytic, wearable and sensor technology, social media and learning tools, and interactive voice response (IVR) as well as explored their respective usages to combat the pandemic spread of COVID-19. Later, the FGD was replicated with 22 participants and explored the possible strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) of deploying such technologies to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. This research not only explores the exiting status of ICT interventions to fight with the COVID-19 pandemic but also provides a number of implications for the government, practitioners, doctors, policymakers and researchers for the effective utilization of the existing ICT interventions and for the future potential research and technological development to the containment of the pandemic spread of COVID-19 and future pandemics.

negative: Forecasting versus projection models in epidemiology: The case of the SARS epidemics Summary In this work we propose a simple mathematical model for the analysis of the impact of control measures against an emerging infection, namely, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The model provides a testable hypothesis by considering a dynamical equation for the contact parameter, which drops exponentially with time, simulating control measures. We discuss the role of modelling in public health and we analyse the distinction between forecasting and projection models as assessing tools for the estimation of the impact of intervention strategies. The model is applied to the communities of Hong Kong and Toronto (Canada) and it mimics those epidemics with fairly good accuracy. The estimated values for the basic reproduction number, R 0, were 1.2 for Hong Kong and 1.32 for Toronto (Canada). The model projects that, in the absence of control, the final number of cases would be 320,000 in Hong Kong and 36,900 in Toronto (Canada). In contrast, with control measures, which reduce the contact rate to about 25% of its initial value, the expected final number of cases is reduced to 1778 in Hong Kong and 226 in Toronto (Canada). Although SARS can be a devastating infection, early recognition, prompt isolation, and appropriate precaution measures, can be very effective to limit its spread.

negative: 30-day mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the first wave of the Italian epidemic: a prospective cohort study Background: Italy was the first European country hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and has the highest number of recorded COVID-19 deaths in Europe. Methods: This prospective cohort study of the correlates of the risk of death in COVID-19 patients was conducted at the Infectious Diseases and Intensive Care units of Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy. The clinical characteristics of all the COVID-19 patients hospitalised in the early days of the epidemic (21 February -19 March 2020) were recorded upon admission, and the time-dependent probability of death was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method (censored as of 20 April 2020). Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the factors independently associated with the risk of death. Results: Forty-eight (20.6%) of the 233 patients followed up for a median of 40 days (interquartile range 33-47) died during the follow-up. Most were males (69.1%) and their median age was 61 years (IQR 50-72). The time-dependent probability of death was 19.7% (95% CI 14.6-24.9%) 30 days after hospital admission. Age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.08, 95% CI 1.48-2.92 per ten years more) and obesity (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.42-6.49) were independently associated with an increased risk of death, which was also associated with critical disease (aHR 8.26, 95% CI 1.41-48.29), C-reactive protein levels (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.35 per 50 mg/L more) and creatinine kinase levels above 185 U/L (aHR 2.58, 95% CI 1.37-4.87) upon admission. Conclusions: Case-fatality rate of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the early days of the Italian epidemic was about 20%. Our study adds evidence to the notion that older age, obesity and more advanced illness are factors associated to an increased risk of death among patients hospitalized with COVID-19.

negative: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cancer Patients In December 2019, a novel coronavirus called severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Severe complications have been reported to occur in 33% of patients with COVID-19 and include acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute renal failure, acute respiratory injury, septic shock, and severe pneumonia. Currently, there is no specific treatment or approved vaccine against COVID-19 and many clinical trials are currently investigating potential medications to treat COVID-19. The immunosuppressed status of some cancer patients (whether caused by the disease itself or the treatment) increases their risk of infection compared with the general population. This short review aims to focus on the impact of COVID-19 on a cancer patient and discuss management options and recommendation in addition to highlighting the currently available clinical guidelines and resources.

negative: Cardiovascular Collapse in COVID-19 Infection: The Role of Veno-Arterial Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (VA-ECMO) ABSTRACT COVID-19 has been associated with cardiovascular complications including acute cardiac injury, heart failure and cardiogenic shock. The role of veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) in the event of COVID-19-associated cardiovascular collapse has not yet been established. We reviewed existing literature surrounding the role of VA-ECMO in the treatment of coronavirus-related cardiovascular collapse. COVID-19 is associated with higher incidence of cardiovascular complications compared to previous coronavirus outbreaks (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV). We found only one case report from China where COVID-19-associated fulminant myocarditis and cardiogenic shock (CS) was successfully rescued using VA-ECMO as a bridge to recovery (BTR). We identified potential clinical scenarios (cardiac injury, myocardial infarction with and without obstructive coronary artery disease, viral myocarditis, and decompensated heart failure) leading to CS and risk factors for poor/uncertain benefit (age, sepsis, mixed/predominantly vasodilatory shock, prothrombotic state and/or coagulopathy, severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, multi-organ failure or high-risk prognostic scores) specific to using VA-ECMO as BTR in COVID-19 infection. Additional considerations and proposed recommendations specific to the COVID-19 pandemic were formulated with guidance from published data and expert consensus. A small subset of patients with cardiovascular complications from COVID-19 infection may progress to refractory CS. Accepting that resource scarcity may be the overwhelming concern for healthcare systems during this pandemic, VA-ECMO can be considered in highly selected cases of refractory CS and echocardiographic evidence of biventricular failure. The decision to initiate this therapy should take into consideration availability of resources, perceived benefit as well as risks of transmitting disease.

negative: The Coronavirus Replicase Coronavirus genome replication and transcription take place at cytoplasmic membranes and involve coordinated processes of both continuous and discontinuous RNA synthesis that are mediated by the viral replicase, a huge protein complex encoded by the 20-kb replicase gene. The replicase complex is believed to be comprised of up to 16 viral subunits and a number of cellular proteins. Besides RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, RNA helicase, and protease activities, which are common to RNA viruses, the coronavirus replicase was recently predicted to employ a variety of RNA processing enzymes that are not (or extremely rarely) found in other RNA viruses and include putative sequence-specific endoribonuclease, 3′-to-5′ exoribonuclease, 2′-O-ribose methyltransferase, ADP ribose 1′-phosphatase and, in a subset of group 2 coronaviruses, cyclic phosphodiesterase activities. This chapter reviews (1) the organization of the coronavirus replicase gene, (2) the proteolytic processing of the replicase by viral proteases, (3) the available functional and structural information on individual subunits of the replicase, such as proteases, RNA helicase, and the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, and (4) the subcellular localization of coronavirus proteins involved in RNA synthesis. Although many molecular details of the coronavirus life cycle remain to be investigated, the available information suggests that these viruses and their distant nidovirus relatives employ a unique collection of enzymatic activities and other protein functions to synthesize a set of 5′-leader-containing subgenomic mRNAs and to replicate the largest RNA virus genomes currently known.

negative: A bio-objects approach to biosecurity: the “mutant flu” controversy as a bio-objectification process

negative: Abstracts from the 36th Annual Meeting of the Society of General Internal Medicine

negative: Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza Surveillance and Disease Severity Continuous investments in influenza research, surveillance, and prevention efforts are critical to mitigate the consequences of annual influenza epidemics and pandemics. New influenza viruses emerge due to antigenic drift and antigenic shift evading human immune system and causing annual epidemics and pandemics. Three pandemics with varying disease severity occurred in the last 100 years. The disease burden and determinants of influenza severity depend on circulating viral strains and individual demographic and clinical factors. Surveillance is the most effective strategy for appropriate public health response. Active and passive surveillance methods are utilized to monitor influenza epidemics and emergence of novel viruses. Meaningful use of electronic health records could be a cost-effective approach to improved influenza surveillance

negative: Human Coronaviruses and Other Respiratory Viruses: Underestimated Opportunistic Pathogens of the Central Nervous System? Respiratory viruses infect the human upper respiratory tract, mostly causing mild diseases. However, in vulnerable populations, such as newborns, infants, the elderly and immune-compromised individuals, these opportunistic pathogens can also affect the lower respiratory tract, causing a more severe disease (e.g., pneumonia). Respiratory viruses can also exacerbate asthma and lead to various types of respiratory distress syndromes. Furthermore, as they can adapt fast and cross the species barrier, some of these pathogens, like influenza A and SARS-CoV, have occasionally caused epidemics or pandemics, and were associated with more serious clinical diseases and even mortality. For a few decades now, data reported in the scientific literature has also demonstrated that several respiratory viruses have neuroinvasive capacities, since they can spread from the respiratory tract to the central nervous system (CNS). Viruses infecting human CNS cells could then cause different types of encephalopathy, including encephalitis, and long-term neurological diseases. Like other well-recognized neuroinvasive human viruses, respiratory viruses may damage the CNS as a result of misdirected host immune responses that could be associated with autoimmunity in susceptible individuals (virus-induced neuro-immunopathology) and/or viral replication, which directly causes damage to CNS cells (virus-induced neuropathology). The etiological agent of several neurological disorders remains unidentified. Opportunistic human respiratory pathogens could be associated with the triggering or the exacerbation of these disorders whose etiology remains poorly understood. Herein, we present a global portrait of some of the most prevalent or emerging human respiratory viruses that have been associated with possible pathogenic processes in CNS infection, with a special emphasis on human coronaviruses.

negative: Mid-Season Estimates of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness against Influenza A(H3N2) Hospitalization in the Elderly in Quebec, Canada, January 2015 BACKGROUND: The 2014/15 influenza season in Canada was characterized by an early epidemic due to vaccine-mismatched influenza A(H3N2) viruses, disproportionately affecting elderly individuals ≥65-years-old. We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) against A(H3N2) hospitalization among elderly individuals during the peak weeks of the 2014/15 epidemic in Quebec, Canada. METHODS: Nasal specimens and clinical/epidemiological data were collected within 7 days of illness onset from elderly patients admitted with respiratory symptoms to one of four participating hospitals between November 30, 2014 and January 13, 2015. Cases tested RT-PCR positive for influenza A(H3N2) and controls tested negative for any influenza. VE was assessed by test-negative case-control design. RESULTS: There were 314 participants including 186 cases (62% vaccinated) and 128 controls (59% vaccinated) included in primary VE analysis. Median age was 81.5 years, two-thirds were admitted from the community and 91% had underlying comorbidity. Crude VE against A(H3N2) hospitalization was -17% (95%CI: -86% to 26%), decreasing to -23% (95%CI: -99 to 23%) with adjustment for age and comorbidity, and to -39% (95%CI: -142 to 20%) with additional adjustment for specimen collection interval, calendar time, type of residence and hospital. In sensitivity analyses, VE estimates were improved toward the null with restriction to participants admitted from the community (-2%; 95%CI: -105 to 49%) or with specimen collection ≤4 days since illness onset (- 8%; 95%CI: -104 to 43%) but further from the null with restriction to participants with comorbidity (-51%; 95%CI: -169 to 15%). CONCLUSION: The 2014/15 mismatched influenza vaccine provided elderly patients with no cross-protection against hospitalization with the A(H3N2) epidemic strain, reinforcing the need for adjunct protective measures among high-risk individuals and improved vaccine options.

negative: Vaccines, inspiring innovation in health() This report covers the topics of pandemics, epidemics and partnerships, including regulatory convergence initiatives, new technologies and novel vaccines, discussed by leading public and private sector stakeholders at the 18th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the Developing Countries Vaccine Manufacturers’ Network (DCVMN). Contributions of Gavi and the vaccine industry from emerging countries to the growing global vaccine market, by improving the supply base from manufacturers in developing countries and contributing to 58% of doses, were highlighted. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), the International Vaccine Institute (IVI) and others reported on new strategies to ensure speedy progress in preclinical and clinical development of innovative vaccines for future MERS, Zika or other outbreak response. Priorities for vaccine stockpiling, to assure readiness during emergencies and to prevent outbreaks due to re-emerging diseases such as yellow fever, cholera and poliomyelitis, were outlined. The role of partnerships in improving global vaccine access, procurement and immunization coverage, and shared concerns were reviewed. The World Health Organization (WHO) and other international collaborating partners provided updates on the Product, Price and Procurement database, the prequalification of vaccines, the control of neglected tropical diseases, particularly the new rabies elimination initiative, and regulatory convergence proposals to accelerate vaccine registration in developing countries. Updates on supply chain innovations and novel vaccine platforms were presented. The discussions enabled members and partners to reflect on efficiency of research & development, supply chain tools and trends in packaging technologies improving delivery of existing vaccines, and allowing a deeper understanding of the current public-health objectives, industry financing, and global policies, required to ensure optimal investments, alignment and stability of vaccine supply in developing countries.

negative: Emergency Response to COVID-19 in Canada: Platform Development and Implementation for eHealth in Crisis Management BACKGROUND: Public health emergencies like epidemics put enormous pressure on health care systems while revealing deep structural and functional problems in the organization of care. The current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic illustrates this at a global level. The sudden increased demand on delivery systems puts unique pressures on pre-established care pathways. These extraordinary times require efficient tools for smart governance and resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop an innovative web-based solution addressing the seemingly insurmountable challenges of triaging, monitoring, and delivering nonhospital services unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: An adaptable crisis management digital platform was envisioned and designed with the goal of improving the system’s response on the basis of the literature; an existing shared health record platform; and discussions between health care providers, decision makers, academia, and the private sector in response to the COVID 19 epidemic. RESULTS: The Crisis Management Platform was developed and offered to health authorities in Ontario on a nonprofit basis. It has the capability to dramatically streamline patient intake, triage, monitoring, referral, and delivery of nonhospital services. It decentralizes the provision of services (by moving them online) and centralizes data gathering and analysis, maximizing the use of existing human resources, facilitating evidence-based decision making, and minimizing the risk to both users and providers. It has unlimited scale-up possibilities (only constrained by human health risk resource availability) with minimal marginal cost. Similar web-based solutions have the potential to fill an urgent gap in resource allocation, becoming a unique asset for health systems governance and management during critical times. They highlight the potential effectiveness of web-based solutions if built on an outcome-driven architecture. CONCLUSIONS: Data and web-based approaches in response to a public health crisis are key to evidence-driven oversight and management of public health emergencies.

negative: Epidemiology and clinical features of emergency department patients with suspected COVID‐19: Results from the first month of the COVED Quality Improvement Project (COVED‐2). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological and clinical features of emergency department (ED) patients with suspected and confirmed COVID‐19. METHODS: The COVID‐19 Emergency Department (COVED) Project is an ongoing prospective cohort study that includes all adult patients presenting to The Alfred Hospital ED who undergo testing for SARS‐CoV‐2. Current guidelines recommend testing for patients with fevers or chills, acute respiratory symptoms or a high‐risk exposure history, as well as implementation of infection control and prevention (IPC) precautions for all suspected and confirmed cases. Study outcomes include a positive SARS‐CoV‐2 test result and intensive respiratory support. RESULTS: In the period 1‐30 April 2020, 702 of 3453 ED patients (20%; 95%CI: 19‐22) were tested, with a significant increase during the study period (IRR 1.019; 95%CI: 1.017‐1.021, p<0.001). The primary outcome of a positive SARS‐CoV‐2 test was recorded in 14 patients (2%; 95%CI: 1‐3). Shortness of breath (77%), fatigue (100%), myalgia (67%) and diarrhoea (67%) were common among positive cases, while close contact (9%), fever (0%) and healthcare occupation (0%) were not. No positive cases required intensive respiratory support in the ED. CONCLUSIONS: The volume of ED patients with suspected COVID‐19 is increasing. Low numbers of positive cases precluded development of accurate predictive tools, but the COVED Project is fulfilling an important role in monitoring the burden of IPC requirements on the ED. The increasing number of patients meeting isolation criteria has the potential to impact on patient flow and may lead to ED overcrowding.

negative: Emergency Response to COVID-19 in Canada: Platform Development and Implementation for eHealth in Crisis Management BACKGROUND: Public health emergencies like epidemics put enormous pressure on health care systems while revealing deep structural and functional problems in the organization of care. The current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic illustrates this at a global level. The sudden increased demand on delivery systems puts unique pressures on pre-established care pathways. These extraordinary times require efficient tools for smart governance and resource allocation. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop an innovative web-based solution addressing the seemingly insurmountable challenges of triaging, monitoring, and delivering nonhospital services unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: An adaptable crisis management digital platform was envisioned and designed with the goal of improving the system's response on the basis of the literature; an existing shared health record platform; and discussions between health care providers, decision makers, academia, and the private sector in response to the COVID 19 epidemic. RESULTS: The Crisis Management Platform was developed and offered to health authorities in Ontario on a nonprofit basis. It has the capability to dramatically streamline patient intake, triage, monitoring, referral, and delivery of nonhospital services. It decentralizes the provision of services (by moving them online) and centralizes data gathering and analysis, maximizing the use of existing human resources, facilitating evidence-based decision making, and minimizing the risk to both users and providers. It has unlimited scale-up possibilities (only constrained by human health risk resource availability) with minimal marginal cost. Similar web-based solutions have the potential to fill an urgent gap in resource allocation, becoming a unique asset for health systems governance and management during critical times. They highlight the potential effectiveness of web-based solutions if built on an outcome-driven architecture. CONCLUSIONS: Data and web-based approaches in response to a public health crisis are key to evidence-driven oversight and management of public health emergencies.

negative: Links between air pollution and COVID-19 in England In December 2019 a novel disease [coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) emerged in the Wuhan province of the People's Republic of China. COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) thought to have jumped species, from another mammal to humans. A pandemic caused by this virus is running rampant throughout the world. Thousands of cases of COVID-19 are reported in England and over 10,000 patients have died. Whilst there has been progress in managing this disease, it is not clear which factors, besides age, affect the severity and mortality of COVID-19. A recent analysis of COVID-19 in Italy identified links between air pollution and death rates. Here, we explored the correlation between three major air pollutants linked to fossil fuels and SARS-CoV-2 lethality in England. We compare up-to-date, real-time SARS-CoV-2 cases and death measurements from public databases to air pollution data monitored across over 120 sites in different regions. We found that the levels of some markers of poor air quality, nitrogen oxides and ozone, are associated with COVID-19 lethality in different English regions. We conclude that the levels of some air pollutants are linked to COVID-19 cases and morbidity. We suggest that our study provides a useful framework to guide health policy in countries affected by this pandemic.

negative: COVID-19 in Colombia endpoints. Are we different, like Europe? Abstract The infection by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has taken the dimension of a pandemic, affecting more than 160 countries in a few weeks. In Colombia, despite the implementation of the rules established by the national government, exists an elevate concern both for mortality and for the limited capacity of the health system to respond effectively to the needs of patients infected. For Colombia, assuming a case fatality rate among people infected with SARS-CoV-2 of 0.6% (average data from the information reported for Latin American countries for March 18) (Table 1), the number of deaths, in one or two weeks, could be 16 and 243, respectively. These estimates differ markedly from those documented in countries such as Spain and Italy, in which COVID-19 case fatality rates exceed 8% (case of Italy) and from the percentage of patients who have required intensive care, which has ranged from 9% to 11% of patients in Mediterranean European countries. These differences could be explained due to: a) the percentage of the population at risk (individuals older than 60 years); b) a higher epidemiological exposure to viral respiratory infections associated with more frequent exposure to them, due to geographic and climatic conditions; c) less spread of the virus by location in the tropical zone; and d) earlier preventive measures to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Therefore, it is possible to establish that the situation in this country will be different from in European Mediterranean and that Colombia could have different endpoints from Spain and Italy.

negative: Population-Level Mortality Rates from Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in South Korea Background: South Korea was among the first countries to report a case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outside of China. As of 22 March, 2020, South Korea reported 8897 confirmed cases of and 104 deaths from COVID-19. Methods: We collected the number of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths in South Korea from the World Health Organization (as of 21 March, 2020) and case distribution and fatality rates by age from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (as of 22 March, 2020). We estimated population-level mortality rates by fitting a negative binomial regression model with the number of deaths as the outcome and population by age as an offset. We then calculated the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) based on the current COVID-19 figures and for alternative scenarios of increased prevalence. Findings: The COVID-19 population-level mortality rate (per 100,000 person-years) increased with age: from 0.1 deaths among 30-39 year olds to 9.5 deaths among ≥80 year olds. The ASDR (per 100,000 person-years) was 0.8 deaths. The ASDR would increase to 52.0 deaths at a 1% prevalence (becoming the third leading cause of death) and 155.9 deaths at 3% prevalence (becoming the leading cause of death). Interpretation: Currently, the population-level mortality burden of COVID-19 in South Korea, as measured by the ASDR, was relatively low compared to other causes of death partly due to the low prevalence of COVID-19. If the prevalence increases from another outbreak, the mortality burden could increase substantially and surpass other leading causes.

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV), spread largely via droplets. Patients present with rapidly progressive pneumonia and respiratory failure. Diagnosis requires the demonstration of epidemiological linkage, clinical profiles, and virological evidence of SARS-CoV infection. Treatment of SARS is largely anecdotal. High-dose corticosteroid therapy might be useful for critically ill patients, but previous use of ribavirin (a broad-spectrum antiviral agent) was probably not efficacious. Some survivors of SARS suffer from avascular necrosis of hip and knee joints. Poor prognostic factors include advanced age, comorbidities, and high serum lactate dehydrogenase and neutrophil levels.

negative: COVID-19 outbreak: less stethoscope, more ultrasound

negative: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK. METHODS: We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The four base interventions modelled were school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years or older, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases. We also modelled the combination of these interventions, as well as a programme of intensive interventions with phased lockdown-type restrictions that substantially limited contacts outside of the home for repeated periods. We simulated different triggers for the introduction of interventions, and estimated the impact of varying adherence to interventions across counties. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (ie, admission to the intensive care units [ICU]) treatment, and deaths, and compared the effect of each intervention on the basic reproduction number, R(0). FINDINGS: We projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million (95% prediction interval 13–30) clinical cases and 350 000 deaths (170 000–480 000) due to COVID-19 in the UK by December, 2021. We found that the four base interventions were each likely to decrease R(0), but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity. The combined intervention was more effective at reducing R(0), but only lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R(0) near or below 1; the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120 000 cases (46 000–700 000) and 50 000 deaths (9300–160 000). Intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability. INTERPRETATION: The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are probably required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

negative: Overcoming Canada's healthcare challenges with analytics.

negative: COVID-19 OUTCOMES IN MS: EARLY EXPERIENCE FROM NYU MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS COMPREHENSIVE CARE CENTER Objective: Report outcomes on patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and related disorders with COVID-19 illness. Methods: From March 16 to April 30th, 2020, patients with MS or related disorders at NYU Langone MS Comprehensive Care Center (MSCC) were identified with laboratory-confirmed or suspected COVID-19. The diagnosis was established using a standardized questionnaire or by a review of in-patient hospital records. Results: We identified 76 patients (55 with relapsing MS of which 9 had pediatric-onset;17 with progressive MS; and 4 with related disorders). 37 underwent PCR testing and were confirmed positive. Of the entire group, 64 (84%) patients were on disease-modifying therapy (DMT) including anti-CD20 therapies (n=34, 44.7%) and sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulators (n=10, 13.5%). The most common COVID-19 symptoms were fever and cough, but 21.1% of patients had neurologic symptom recrudescence preceding or coinciding with the infection. A total of 18 (23.7%) were hospitalized; 8 (10.5%) had COVID-19 critical illness or related death. Features more common among those hospitalized or with critical illness or death were older age, presence of comorbidities, progressive disease, and a non-ambulatory status. No DMT class was associated with an increased risk of hospitalization or fatal outcome. Conclusions: Most MS patients with COVID-19 do not require hospitalization despite being on DMTs. Factors associated with critical illness were similar to the general at risk patient population. DMT use did not emerge as a predictor of poor COVID-19 outcome in this preliminary sample.

negative: Mapping the Landscape of Artificial Intelligence Applications against COVID-19 COVID-19, the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization, with over 2.5 million confirmed cases as of April 23, 2020. In this review, we present an overview of recent studies using Machine Learning and, more broadly, Artificial Intelligence, to tackle many aspects of the COVID-19 crisis at different scales including molecular, clinical, and societal applications. We also review datasets, tools, and resources needed to facilitate AI research. Finally, we discuss strategic considerations related to the operational implementation of projects, multidisciplinary partnerships, and open science. We highlight the need for international cooperation to maximize the potential of AI in this and future pandemics.

negative: Midwives in a pandemic: A call for solidarity and compassion

negative: From SARS to COVID-19: A previously unknown SARS- related coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) of pandemic potential infecting humans – Call for a One Health approach Human coronaviruses continue to pose a threat to human health. The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 which causes coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), an acute respiratory disease marked the third introduction of a highly pathogenic coronavirus into the human population in the twenty-first century. This recent emergence of a previously unknown coronavirus in China leads to huge impacts on humans globally. Covid-19 is a challenge to global public health. Here, we discuss the COVID-19 outbreak in a one health context, highlighting the need for the implementation of one health measures and practices to improve human health and reduce the emergence of pandemic viruses.

negative: Laboratory-based respiratory virus surveillance pilot project on select cruise ships in Alaska, 2013–15() BACKGROUND: Influenza outbreaks can occur among passengers and crews during the Alaska summertime cruise season. Ill travellers represent a potential source for introduction of novel or antigenically drifted influenza virus strains to the United States. From May to September 2013–2015, the Alaska Division of Public Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and two cruise lines implemented a laboratory-based public health surveillance project to detect influenza and other respiratory viruses among ill crew members and passengers on select cruise ships in Alaska. METHODS: Cruise ship medical staff collected 2–3 nasopharyngeal swab specimens per week from passengers and crew members presenting to the ship infirmary with acute respiratory illness (ARI). Specimens were tested for respiratory viruses at the Alaska State Virology Laboratory (ASVL); a subset of specimens positive for influenza virus were sent to CDC for further antigenic characterization. RESULTS: Of 410 nasopharyngeal specimens, 83% tested positive for at least one respiratory virus; 71% tested positive for influenza A or B virus. Antigenic characterization of pilot project specimens identified strains matching predominant circulating seasonal influenza virus strains, which were included in the northern or southern hemisphere influenza vaccines during those years. Results were relatively consistent across age groups, recent travel history, and influenza vaccination status. Onset dates of illness relative to date of boarding differed between northbound (occurring later in the voyage) and southbound (occurring within the first days of the voyage) cruises. CONCLUSIONS: The high yield of positive results indicated that influenza was common among passengers and crews sampled with ARI. This finding reinforces the need to bolster influenza prevention and control activities on cruise ships. Laboratory-based influenza surveillance on cruise ships may augment inland influenza surveillance and inform control activities. However, these benefits should be weighed against the costs and operational limitations of instituting laboratory-based surveillance programs on ships.

negative: Analysis of Serologic Cross-Reactivity Between Common Human Coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 Using Coronavirus Antigen Microarray The current practice for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection relies on PCR testing of nasopharyngeal or respiratory specimens in a symptomatic patient at high epidemiologic risk. This testing strategy likely underestimates the true prevalence of infection, creating the need for serologic methods to detect infections missed by the limited testing to date. Here, we describe the development of a coronavirus antigen microarray containing immunologically significant antigens from SARS-CoV-2, in addition to SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, common human coronavirus strains, and other common respiratory viruses. A preliminary study of human sera collected prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic demonstrates overall high IgG reactivity to common human coronaviruses and low IgG reactivity to epidemic coronaviruses including SARS-CoV-2, with some cross-reactivity of conserved antigenic domains including S2 domain of spike protein and nucleocapsid protein. This array can be used to answer outstanding questions regarding SARS-CoV-2 infection, including whether baseline serology for other coronaviruses impacts disease course, how the antibody response to infection develops over time, and what antigens would be optimal for vaccine development.

negative: Forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in Top 15 countries in April 2020: ARIMA Model with Machine Learning Approach We here predicted some trajectories of COVID-19 in the coming days (until April 30, 2020) using the most advanced Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Our analysis predicted very frightening outcomes, which defines to worsen the conditions in Iran, entire Europe, especially Italy, Spain, and France. While South Korea, after the initial blast, has come to stability, the same goes for the COVID-19 origin country China with more positive recovery cases and confirm to remain stable. The United States of America (USA) will come as a surprise and going to become the epicenter for new cases during the mid-April 2020. Based on our predictions, public health officials should tailor aggressive interventions to grasp the power exponential growth, and rapid infection control measures at hospital levels are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Open Data Resources for Fighting COVID-19 We provide an insight into the open data resources pertinent to the study of the spread of Covid-19 pandemic and its control. We identify the variables required to analyze fundamental aspects like seasonal behaviour, regional mortality rates, and effectiveness of government measures. Open data resources, along with data-driven methodologies, provide many opportunities to improve the response of the different administrations to the virus. We describe the present limitations and difficulties encountered in most of the open-data resources. To facilitate the access to the main open-data portals and resources, we identify the most relevant institutions, at a world scale, providing Covid-19 information and/or auxiliary variables (demographics, mobility, etc.). We also describe several open resources to access Covid-19 data-sets at a country-wide level (i.e. China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, U.S., etc.). In an attempt to facilitate the rapid response to the study of the seasonal behaviour of Covid-19, we enumerate the main open resources in terms of weather and climate variables. CONCO-Team: The authors of this paper belong to the CONtrol COvid-19 Team, which is composed of different researches from universities of Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United Kingdom and Argentina. The main goal of CONCO-Team is to develop data-driven methods for the better understanding and control of the pandemic.

negative: The impact of COVID‐19 on food retail and food service in Canada: Preliminary assessment COVID‐19 has imposed a series of unique challenges on the food retail and food service sectors in Canada. Almost overnight, the roughly 30% of the food dollar that Canadians have been spending on food away from home has shifted to retail.

negative: Rapid response research to emerging infectious diseases: lessons from SARS New and emerging infectious diseases continue to plague the world, and there is significant concern that recombinant infectious agents can be used as bioterrorism threats. Microbiologists are increasingly being asked to apply their scientific knowledge to respond to these threats. The recent pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus illustrated not only how a newly evolved pathogen can rapidly spread throughout the world but also how the global community can unite to identify the causative agent and control its spread. Rapid response research mechanisms, such as those used by the SARS Accelerated Vaccine Initiative (SAVI), have shown that the application of emergency management techniques, together with rapid response research, can be highly effective when applied appropriately to new infectious diseases.

negative: Clinico-epidemiological characteristics of acute respiratory infections by coronavirus OC43, NL63 and 229E Abstract Background and objectives Acute respiratory infection is a very common condition in the general population. The majority of these infections are due to viruses. This study attempted to determine the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of adult patients with respiratory infection by the coronavirus OC43, NL63 and 229E. Patients and methods Between January 2013 and February 2014, we prospectively studied all patients with suspected clinical respiratory infection by taking throat swabs and performing a reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction in search of coronavirus. Results In 48 cases (7.0% of the 686 enrolled patients; 12.6% of the 381 in whom a virus was detected) the presence of a coronavirus demonstrated. In 24 cases, the virus was OC43 (50%); in 14 cases, the virus was NL63 (29%); and in 10 cases, the virus was 229E (21%). The mean age was 54.5 years, with a slight predominance of men. The most common clinical presentations were nonspecific influenza symptoms (43.7%), pneumonia (29.2%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation (8.3%). Fifty-two percent of the patients required hospitalization, and 2 patients required intensive care. There were no deaths. Conclusion Acute respiratory infections caused by coronavirus mainly affect middle-aged male smokers, who are often affected by previous diseases. The most common clinical picture has been nonspecific influenza symptoms.

negative: [Management and clinical thinking of Coronavirus Disease 2019] In December 2019, the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP, officially named Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) by the World Health Organization) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei, and it quickly spread to the whole country and abroad. The situation was at stake. The sudden and serious COVID-19 epidemic has brought us a lot of urgent problems. How to effectively control the spread of COVID-19? When does the population infection rate rise to its peak? What will eventually be the number of infected patients? How to make early diagnosis? What effective antiviral drugs are available? How to effectively treat with existing drugs? Can it successfully improve the survival rate of critically patients? In response to the above questions, we put forward corresponding suggestions and reflections from the perspective of the infectious clinician.

negative: The Canadian Health Clock and health calculators SETTING: This paper documents a participatory process of Health Portfolio staff in the design of a clock, and announces the 2020 Canadian Health Clock, with links to numerous online health calculators. The clock is part of the Health Portfolio’s celebration activities in 2019 of “100 Years of Health”, as the Department of Health was established in Canada in 1919. INTERVENTION: The intervention was the development of a clock on the Government of Canada website with linkage to calculators as a health promotion tool. The clock was built on the concept of the 2004 Chronic Disease Clock, which shows the number of deaths so far today, and so far this year. The clock was developed using a consultative approach, following a review of the original clock. OUTCOMES: The 2020 clock incorporates new data visualization concepts. New features, facilitated by improved technology, include: expansion to all causes of death; blinking red dots to enhance visual impact; and three clock versions (analogue, featuring a moving circle; digital, table format; and graphical, bar chart format). The clock also provides links to a number of health calculators, to allow people to seek personalized information to improve their health. IMPLICATIONS: The online health clock and health calculators are good examples of innovation in health risk communication tools for effective knowledge translation and dissemination. They inform people about health statistics (clock) and their health (calculators). The clock engages people in the context of the Canadian population, whereas the calculators provide personalized information about improving an individual’s future health.

negative: Responding to health emergencies in the Eastern Mediterranean region in times of conflict

negative: Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. As of 31 January 2020, this epidemic had spread to 19 countries with 11 791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths. The World Health Organization has declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted following the methodological framework suggested by Arksey and O’Malley. In this scoping review, 65 research articles published before 31 January 2020 were analyzed and discussed to better understand the epidemiology, causes, clinical diagnosis, prevention and control of this virus. The research domains, dates of publication, journal language, authors’ affiliations, and methodological characteristics were included in the analysis. All the findings and statements in this review regarding the outbreak are based on published information as listed in the references. RESULTS: Most of the publications were written using the English language (89.2%). The largest proportion of published articles were related to causes (38.5%) and a majority (67.7%) were published by Chinese scholars. Research articles initially focused on causes, but over time there was an increase of the articles related to prevention and control. Studies thus far have shown that the virus’ origination is in connection to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal associations have not been confirmed. Reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines have been discussed as ways to reduce transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment has proven effective; hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. CONCLUSIONS: There has been a rapid surge in research in response to the outbreak of COVID-19. During this early period, published research primarily explored the epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, as well as prevention and control of the novel coronavirus. Although these studies are relevant to control the current public emergency, more high-quality research is needed to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both the short- and long-term.

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): update for anesthesiologists and intensivists March 2020 The current outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has reached Germany. The majority of people infected present with mild disease, but there are severe cases that need intensive care. Unlike other acute infectious diseases progressing to sepsis, the severe courses of COVID19 seemingly show prolonged progression from onset of first symptoms to life-threatening deterioration of (primarily) lung function. Diagnosis relies on PCR using specimens from the respiratory tract. Severe ARDS reflects the hallmark of a critical course of the disease. Preventing nosocomial infections (primarily by correct use of personal protective equipment) and maintenance of hospitals’ operational capability are of utmost importance. Departments of Anaesthesia, Intensive Care and emergency medicine will envisage major challenges.

negative: Potential impacts of COVID-19 on Canadian farmland markets Evidence from the past 50 years suggests that changes in Canadian farmland values are influenced by farming returns, real interest rates, and exchange rates. Residential and commercial development also affects the value of farmland close to major urban centers. The COVID-19 economic shutdown is expected to reduce crop and livestock returns, which will put downward pressure on farmland values. The magnitude of this downward pressure will depend on the extent and the length of the recession. The evolution of interest rates over the next months and years could have a significant impact on farmland values. Historically, low real interest rates have coincided with higher farmland values, whereas high real interest rates have caused significant reductions in farmland values. The development value of farmland close to major cities could be negatively impacted by a sharp downturn in residential and commercial property markets.

negative: Rapid one-step construction of a Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) infectious clone system by homologous recombination Abstract Background Viral Infectious clone systems serve as robust platforms to study viral gene or replicative function by reverse genetics, formulate vaccines and adapt a wild type-virus to an animal host. Since the development of the first viral infectious clone system for the poliovirus, novel strategies of viral genome construction have allowed for the assembly of viral genomes across the identified viral families. However, the molecular profiles of some viruses make their genome more difficult to construct than others. Two factors that affect the difficulty of infectious clone construction are genome length and genome complexity. Results This work examines the available strategies for overcoming the obstacles of assembling the long and complex RNA genomes of coronaviruses and reports one-step construction of an infectious clone system for the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) by homologous recombination in S. cerevisiae. Conclusions Future use of this methodology will shorten the time between emergence of a novel viral pathogen and construction of an infectious clone system. Completion of a viral infectious clone system facilitates further study of a virus’s biology, improvement of diagnostic tests, vaccine production and the screening of antiviral compounds.

negative: Pandemic threats and the need for new emergency public health legislation in Canada. The 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) exposed serious limitations in Canada's ability to respond to a public health emergency. Considerable progress has been made since SARS in addressing these limitations, including the creation of the new Public Health Agency of Canada. A remaining contentious question is whether there is a need for new federal emergency public health powers. Approaches to public health problems are best handled through collaborative processes, recognizing the critical importance of the local public health response. Nevertheless, this paper argues that a legislative back-up plan must be available to the federal government in the event that collaborative relationships break down. At the minimum, legislation should give the federal government the authority to have guaranteed access to surveillance data during a public health emergency. The legislation should also consider providing the federal government with the authority to devote the nation's resources to the management of an emergency at its earliest stages. However, any legislative approach must be combined with the development of appropriate capacity at the national level to ensure that new powers can be adequately utilized and that required funding reaches public health officials at other levels of government.

negative: Evidence of the COVID-19 Virus Targeting the CNS: Tissue Distribution, Host–Virus Interaction, and Proposed Neurotropic Mechanisms [Image: see text] The recent outbreak of coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) has gripped the world with apprehension and has evoked a scare of epic proportion regarding its potential to spread and infect humans worldwide. As we are in the midst of an ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, scientists are struggling to understand how it resembles and differs from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) at the genomic and transcriptomic level. In a short time following the outbreak, it has been shown that, similar to SARS-CoV, COVID-19 virus exploits the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to gain entry inside the cells. This finding raises the curiosity of investigating the expression of ACE2 in neurological tissue and determining the possible contribution of neurological tissue damage to the morbidity and mortality caused by COIVD-19. Here, we investigate the density of the expression levels of ACE2 in the CNS, the host–virus interaction and relate it to the pathogenesis and complications seen in the recent cases resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. Also, we debate the need for a model for staging COVID-19 based on neurological tissue involvement.

negative: Italian Society of Interventional Cardiology (GISE) position paper for Cath lab‐specific preparedness recommendations for healthcare providers in case of suspected, probable or confirmed cases of COVID‐19 COVID‐19 pandemic raised the issue to guarantee the proper level of care to patients with acute cardiovascular diseases and concomitant suspected or confirmed COVID‐19 and, in the meantime safety and protection of healthcare providers. The aim of this position paper is to provide standards to healthcare facilities and healthcare providers on infection prevention and control measures during the management of suspected and confirmed cases of 2019‐nCoV infection accessing in cath‐lab. The document represents the view of the Italian Society of Interventional Cardiology (GISE), and it is based on recommendations from the main World and European Health Organizations (WHO, and ECDC) as well as from the Italian Society of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI).

negative: Who should wear a face mask? Experts weigh in on Canada's COVID-19 response

negative: Now, more than ever, our community is needed: spinal cord injury care during a global pandemic

negative: Cardiovascular complications in COVID-19 Abstract Background The coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). While systemic inflammation and pulmonary complications can result in significant morbidity and mortality, cardiovascular complications may also occur. Objective This brief report evaluates cardiovascular complications in the setting of COVID-19 infection. Discussion The current COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over one million infected worldwide and thousands of death. The virus binds and enters through angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). COVID-19 can result in systemic inflammation, multiorgan dysfunction, and critical illness. The cardiovascular system is also affected, with complications including myocardial injury, myocarditis, acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, dysrhythmias, and venous thromboembolic events. Current therapies for COVID-19 may interact with cardiovascular medications. Conclusions Emergency clinicians should be aware of these cardiovascular complications when evaluating and managing the patient with COVID-19.

negative: Importance of diagnostics in epidemic and pandemic preparedness Diagnostics are fundamental for successful outbreak containment. In this supplement, ‘Diagnostic preparedness for WHO Blueprint pathogens’, we describe specific diagnostic challenges presented by selected priority pathogens most likely to cause future epidemics. Some challenges to diagnostic preparedness are common to all outbreak situations, as highlighted by recent outbreaks of Ebola, Zika and yellow fever. In this article, we review these overarching challenges and explore potential solutions. Challenges include fragmented and unreliable funding pathways, limited access to specimens and reagents, inadequate diagnostic testing capacity at both national and community levels of healthcare and lack of incentives for companies to develop and manufacture diagnostics for priority pathogens during non-outbreak periods. Addressing these challenges in an efficient and effective way will require multiple stakeholders—public and private—coordinated in implementing a holistic approach to diagnostics preparedness. All require strengthening of healthcare system diagnostic capacity (including surveillance and education of healthcare workers), establishment of sustainable financing and market strategies and integration of diagnostics with existing mechanisms. Identifying overlaps in diagnostic development needs across different priority pathogens would allow more timely and cost-effective use of resources than a pathogen by pathogen approach; target product profiles for diagnostics should be refined accordingly. We recommend the establishment of a global forum to bring together representatives from all key stakeholders required for the response to develop a coordinated implementation plan. In addition, we should explore if and how existing mechanisms to address challenges to the vaccines sector, such as Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and Gavi, could be expanded to cover diagnostics.

negative: Anaesthesia and infection control in cesarean section of pregnant women with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first emerged in Wuhan, China, and soon caused an ongoing pandemic globally. In this study we conducted a retrospective study to evaluate the safety and efficacy of combined spinal-epidural anaesthesia (CSEA) and infection control measures on perinatal care quality of 30 pregnant women with confirmed and suspected COVID-19. Methods Individual demographic data, clinical outcomes, laboratory investigations of pregnant women and their newborns were collected from electronic medical records of the Maternal and Children Health Hospital of Hubei Province, during January 24 to February 29, 2020. Anaesthesia and surgery results were compared between pregnant women with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection. Results Using CSEA in cesarean section was effective and safe for pregnant women with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infection. Administration of dezocine and morphine was effective as postoperative analgesia, and well tolerated in COVID-19 patients. The assessment of surgery outcomes also showed similar results in both confirmed and suspected cases. No respiratory failure nor distress were found in the mothers with confirmed COVID-19 infection and their neonates. None of these patients experienced severe obstetric complications related to anaesthesia and surgeries. No COVID-19 infection was reported in the neonates born to the mothers with confirmed COVID-19 infection and healthcare workers in these operations. Conclusions In cesarean section for pregnant women with COVID-19 infection, CSEA was safe and efficient in achieving satisfactory obstetrical anaesthesia and postoperative analgesia. No cross-infection occurred in the HCWs working in these operations.

negative: The Canadian Association for Interventional Radiology (CAIR) and Canadian Association of Radiologists (CAR) Guidelines for Interventional Radiology Procedures for Patients With Suspected or Confirmed COVID-19 The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is creating significant challenges to the Canadian health system, including the practice of interventional radiology (IR). Interventional radiology will continue to play an important role in patient care, during this crisis. This document serves to guide interventional and general radiologists in safely performing IR procedures on patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19, using the best evidence, guidelines and expert recommendations available. These strategies include reviewing procedural indications, development of tactics to minimize cross contamination prior to the intervention, appropriate usage of personal protection equipment according to the type of procedure (along with defining aerosol-generating procedures in IR), along with developing the appropriate work environment during the COVID-19 pandemic. By adopting the policies described, hospitals will protect the interventional radiologists, medical radiation technologists, nurses, ancillary staff, along with patients who benefit from their care.

negative: Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool Background: COVID-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for societies, healthcare organizations and economies. In the present analysis we coupled climate data with COVID-19 spread rates worldwide, and in a single country (USA). Methods: Data of confirmed COVID-19 cases was derived from the COVID-19 Global Cases by the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University up to March 19, 2020. We assessed disease spread by two measures: replication rate (RR), the slope of the logarithmic curve of confirmed cases, and the rate of spread (RoS), the slope of the linear regression of the logarithmic curve. Results: Based on predefined criteria, the mean COVID-19 RR was significantly lower in warm climate countries (0.12± 0.02) compared with cold countries (0.24± 0.01), (P<0.0001). Similarly, RoS was significantly lower in warm climate countries 0.12± 0.02 vs. 0.25± 0.01 than in cold climate countries (P<0.001). In all countries (independent of climate classification) both RR and RoS displayed a moderate negative correlation with temperature R= -0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001 and R= -0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001, respectively. We identified a similar moderate negative correlation with the dew point temperature. Additional climate variables did not display a significant correlation with neither RR nor RoS. Finally, in an ancillary analysis, COVID-19 intra-country model using an inter-state analysis of the USA did not identify yet correlation between climate parameters and RR or RoS as of March, 19, 2020. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests a plausible negative correlation between warmer climate and COVID-19 spread rate as defined by RR and RoS worldwide. This initial correlation should be interpreted cautiously and be further validated over time, the pandemic is at different stages in various countries as well as in regions within these countries. As such, some associations may be more affected by local transmission patterns rather than by climate. Importantly, we provide an online surveillance dashboard (https://covid19.net.technion.ac.il/) to further assess the association between climate parameters and outbreak dynamics worldwide as time goes by

negative: Guidance for management of cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic Summary: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, delaying lifesaving cancer surgeries must be done with extreme caution and thoughtfulness. Modelling indicates that delays in high-risk cancer surgeries beyond 6 weeks could affect long-term outcomes for thousands of Canadians. Consequently, it is possible that postponing cancer surgery without consideration of its implications could cost more lives than can be saved by diverting all surgical resources to COVID-19. This article provides general guidance on supporting curative surgical treatment where appropriate and with available resources.

negative: Public Understanding of Medical Countermeasures. Medical countermeasures, including new drugs and vaccines, are necessary to protect the public's health from novel diseases and terrorist threats. Experience with the 2001 anthrax attack and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic suggest that there is limited willingness to accept such drugs and that minority groups may respond differently from others. We conducted 148 intercept interviews in the metropolitan Washington, DC, area, examining 2 hypothetical scenarios: a new respiratory virus and public exposure to high levels of radiation. Findings provide insights into key factors that affect whether diverse members of the public comply with recommended protective actions like taking emergency authorized vaccines. These insights can help improve how public health practitioners communicate during uncertain times.

negative: SARS Clinical Features, United States, 2003 We compared the clinical features of 8 U.S. case-patients with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) to 65 controls who tested negative for SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) infection. Shortness of breath, vomiting, diarrhea, progressive bilateral infiltrates on chest radiograph, and need for supplemental oxygen were significantly associated with confirmed SARS-CoV infection.

negative: Public Policy and Constitutional Rights in Times of Crisis Federal and provincial policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic raise a host of constitutional issues that decision makers must pay heed to or risk serious violations of individual rights under the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. This research note will examine a number of policy challenges as they relate to mobility rights (s. 6), legal rights (ss. 7 through 14), and equality rights (s. 15) and will articulate the factors that policy makers should consider in design and implementation. Other important constitutional questions, such as those relating to the division of powers, emergency powers and the relationship between the executive and Parliament, have also emerged in Canada but are beyond the scope of this note.

negative: Prognosis of hospitalized patients with 2009 H1N1 influenza in Spain: influence of neuraminidase inhibitors BACKGROUND: The H1N1 influenza pandemic strain has been associated with a poor prognosis in hospitalized patients. The present report evaluates the factors influencing prognosis. METHODS: A total of 813 patients hospitalized with H1N1 influenza in 36 hospitals (nationwide) in Spain were analysed. Detailed histories of variables preceding hospital admission were obtained by interview, validating data on medications and vaccine with their attending physicians. Data on treatment and complications during hospital stay were recorded. As definition of poor outcome, the endpoints of death and admission to intensive care were combined; and as a further outcome, length of stay was used. RESULTS: The mean age was 38.5 years (SD 22.8 years). There were 10 deaths and 79 admissions to intensive care (combined, 88). The use of neuraminidase inhibitors was reported by 495 patients (60.9%). The variables significantly associated with a poor outcome were diabetes (OR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.21–4.02), corticosteroid therapy (OR = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.39–8.20) and use of histamine-2 receptor antagonists (OR = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.14–6.36), while the use of neuraminidase inhibitors (OR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.34–0.94) was protective. Neuraminidase inhibitors within the first 2 days after the influenza onset reduced hospital stay by a mean of 1.9 days (95% CI = 4.7–6.6). CONCLUSIONS: The use of neuraminidase inhibitors decreases the length of hospital stay and admission to intensive care and/or death.

negative: COVID‐19 patients' clinical characteristics, discharge rate, and fatality rate of meta‐analysis The aim of this study was to analyze the clinical data, discharge rate, and fatality rate of COVID‐19 patients for clinical help. The clinical data of COVID‐19 patients from December 2019 to February 2020 were retrieved from four databases. We statistically analyzed the clinical symptoms and laboratory results of COVID‐19 patients and explained the discharge rate and fatality rate with a single‐arm meta‐analysis. The available data of 1994 patients in 10 literatures were included in our study. The main clinical symptoms of COVID‐19 patients were fever (88.5%), cough (68.6%), myalgia or fatigue (35.8%), expectoration (28.2%), and dyspnea (21.9%). Minor symptoms include headache or dizziness (12.1%), diarrhea (4.8%), nausea and vomiting (3.9%). The results of the laboratory showed that the lymphocytopenia (64.5%), increase of C‐reactive protein (44.3%), increase of lactic dehydrogenase (28.3%), and leukocytopenia (29.4%) were more common. The results of single‐arm meta‐analysis showed that the male took a larger percentage in the gender distribution of COVID‐19 patients 60% (95% CI [0.54, 0.65]), the discharge rate of COVID‐19 patients was 52% (95% CI [0.34,0.70]), and the fatality rate was 5% (95% CI [0.01,0.11]).

negative: Characteristics of Health Care Personnel with COVID-19 - United States, February 12-April 9, 2020. As of April 9, 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had resulted in 1,521,252 cases and 92,798 deaths worldwide, including 459,165 cases and 16,570 deaths in the United States (1,2). Health care personnel (HCP) are essential workers defined as paid and unpaid persons serving in health care settings who have the potential for direct or indirect exposure to patients or infectious materials (3). During February 12-April 9, among 315,531 COVID-19 cases reported to CDC using a standardized form, 49,370 (16%) included data on whether the patient was a health care worker in the United States; including 9,282 (19%) who were identified as HCP. Among HCP patients with data available, the median age was 42 years (interquartile range [IQR] = 32-54 years), 6,603 (73%) were female, and 1,779 (38%) reported at least one underlying health condition. Among HCP patients with data on health care, household, and community exposures, 780 (55%) reported contact with a COVID-19 patient only in health care settings. Although 4,336 (92%) HCP patients reported having at least one symptom among fever, cough, or shortness of breath, the remaining 8% did not report any of these symptoms. Most HCP with COVID-19 (6,760, 90%) were not hospitalized; however, severe outcomes, including 27 deaths, occurred across all age groups; deaths most frequently occurred in HCP aged ≥65 years. These preliminary findings highlight that whether HCP acquire infection at work or in the community, it is necessary to protect the health and safety of this essential national workforce.

negative: Rapid implementation of mobile technology for real-time epidemiology of COVID-19 The rapid pace of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic (COVID-19) presents challenges to the robust collection of population-scale data to address this global health crisis. We established the COronavirus Pandemic Epidemiology (COPE) consortium to bring together scientists with expertise in big data research and epidemiology to develop a COVID-19 Symptom Tracker mobile application that we launched in the UK on March 24, 2020 and the US on March 29, 2020 garnering more than 2.25 million users to date. This mobile application offers data on risk factors, herald symptoms, clinical outcomes, and geographical hot spots. This initiative offers critical proof-of-concept for the repurposing of existing approaches to enable rapidly scalable epidemiologic data collection and analysis which is critical for a data-driven response to this public health challenge.

negative: Influenza-associated pneumonia as reference to assess seriousness of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Information on severity of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (transmissibility, disease seriousness, impact) is crucial for preparation of healthcare sectors. We present a simple approach to assess disease seriousness, creating a reference cohort of pneumonia patients from sentinel hospitals. First comparisons exposed a higher rate of COVID-19 patients requiring ventilation. There were more case fatalities among COVID-19 patients without comorbidities than in the reference cohort. Hospitals should prepare for high utilisation of ventilation and intensive care resources.

negative: A multicentre collaboration to investigate the cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome Summary Severe Acute respiratory syndrome is a new disease in human beings, first recognised in late February, 2003, in Hanoi, Vietnam. The severity of the disease, combined with its rapid spread along international air-travel routes, prompted WHO to set up a network of scientists from 11 laboratories around the world to try to identify the causal agent and develop a diagnostic test. The network unites laboratories with different methods and capacities to rapidly fulfil all postulates for establishing a virus as the cause of a disease. Results are shared in real time via a secure website, on which microscopy pictures, protocols for testing, and PCR primer sequences are also posted. Findings are discussed in daily teleconferences. Progress is further facilitated through sharing between laboratories of samples and test materials. The network has identified a new coronavirus, consistently detected in samples of SARS patients from several countries, and conclusively named it as the causative agent of SARS; the strain is unlike any other known member of the genus Coronavirus. Three diagnostic tests are now available, but all have limitations.

negative: Eco-cultural health, global health, and sustainability Anthropogenic stress on the earth’s ecosystems has resulted in widespread prevalence of ecosystem distress syndrome, a quantifiable set of signs of ecosystem degradation. At the same time, the planet is witnessing rapid declines in global cultural diversity and in the vitality of the world’s cultures, which closely mirror, and are interrelated with, ecological degradation. As a consequence of this converging crisis of loss of ecosystem and cultural health, global health and sustainability are increasingly under threat. An eco-cultural health perspective based on understanding the linkages between human activities, ecological and cultural disruption, and public health is essential for addressing these threats and achieving global sustainability.

negative: Estimating Preventable COVID19 Infections Related to Elective Outpatient Surgery in Washington State: A Quantitative Model Background: As the number of suspected and confirmed COVID19 cases in the US continues to rise, the US surgeon general, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and several specialty societies have issued recommendations to consider canceling elective surgeries. However, these recommendations have also faced controversy and opposition. Objective: The goal of this study is to provide a quantitative analysis and model for preventable COVID19 infections from elective outpatient or ambulatory surgery cases, which can also be adapted to analyze COVID19 transmission in other healthcare settings. Furthermore, given the controversy over the appropriate handling of elective surgical cases during this pandemic, we hope that our results may have a positive impact on health policy and public health. Methods: Using previously published information on elective ambulatory or outpatient surgical procedures and publicly available data on COVID19 infections in the US and on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, we calculated a transmission rate and generated a mathematical model to predict a lower bound for the number of healthcare-acquired COVID19 infections that could be prevented by canceling or postponing elective outpatient surgeries in Washington state. Results: Our model predicts that over the course of 30 days, at least 2445 preventable patient infections and at least 1557 preventable healthcare worker (HCW) infections would occur in WA state alone if elective outpatient procedures were to continue as usual. The majority of these infections are caused by transmission from HCW who became infected at work. Conclusion: Given the large numbers of COVID19 infections that could be prevented by canceling elective outpatient surgeries, our findings support the recommendations of the US Surgeon General, CDC, American College of Surgeons (ACS), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), and Anesthesia Patient Safety Foundation (APSF) to consider rescheduling or postponing elective surgeries until the COVID19 pandemic is under better control in the US.

negative: The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak – an update on the status An acute respiratory disease, caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV), the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread throughout China and received worldwide attention. On 30 January 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 epidemic as a public health emergency of international concern. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2002 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, marked the third introduction of a highly pathogenic and large-scale epidemic coronavirus into the human population in the twenty-first century. As of 1 March 2020, a total of 87,137 confirmed cases globally, 79,968 confirmed in China and 7169 outside of China, with 2977 deaths (3.4%) had been reported by WHO. Meanwhile, several independent research groups have identified that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to β-coronavirus, with highly identical genome to bat coronavirus, pointing to bat as the natural host. The novel coronavirus uses the same receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as that for SARS-CoV, and mainly spreads through the respiratory tract. Importantly, increasingly evidence showed sustained human-to-human transmission, along with many exported cases across the globe. The clinical symptoms of COVID-19 patients include fever, cough, fatigue and a small population of patients appeared gastrointestinal infection symptoms. The elderly and people with underlying diseases are susceptible to infection and prone to serious outcomes, which may be associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and cytokine storm. Currently, there are few specific antiviral strategies, but several potent candidates of antivirals and repurposed drugs are under urgent investigation. In this review, we summarized the latest research progress of the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and clinical characteristics of COVID-19, and discussed the current treatment and scientific advancements to combat the epidemic novel coronavirus.

negative: Avian influenza viruses: a severe threat of a pandemic in children? Influenza virus is a leading cause of human respiratory illnesses, causing significant annual morbidity and mortality. The greatest severity of illness due to seasonal influenza occurs in infants less than 6 months of age and the elderly. In recent years, avian influenza virus infections with high mortality have occurred in humans. Many of these avian influenza virus infections have occurred in children, and unlike seasonal influenza, the most severe disease and highest death rates have occurred in children and young adults. Treatment and prevention options for avian influenza viruses are limited at present, although much research effort is directed toward these areas. Avian-derived influenza viruses are potential causes of pandemic influenza that could have a dramatic impact on children worldwide.

negative: Clinical management and infection control of SARS: Lessons learned Abstract The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 was the first emergence of an important human pathogen in the 21st century. Responding to the epidemic provided clinicians with extensive experience in diagnosing and treating a novel respiratory viral disease. In this article, we review the experience of the SARS epidemic, focusing on measures taken to identify and isolate patients, prevent the transmission of infection to healthcare workers and develop effective therapies. Lessons learned from the SARS epidemic will be especially important in responding to the current emergence of another highly pathogenic human coronavirus, the agent of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and to the recently emerging H7N9 influenza A virus in China. This paper forms part of a symposium in Antiviral Research on “From SARS to MERS: 10years of research on highly pathogenic human coronaviruses.”

negative: Strategic plan for management of COVID-19 in paediatric haematology and oncology departments

negative: Ecologic correlation between underlying population level morbidities and COVID-19 case fatality rate among countries infected with SARS-CoV-2 Background: The ongoing Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is unprecedented in scope. High income countries (HIC) seemingly account for the majority of the mortalities considering that these countries have screened more persons. Low middle income countries (LMIC) countries may experience far worse mortalities considering the existence of a weaker health care system and the several underlying population level morbidities. As a result, it becomes imperative to understand the ecological correlation between critical underlying population level morbidities and COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFR). Method: This is an ecological study using data on COVID-19 cases, prevalence of COPD, prevalence of tobacco use, adult HIV prevalence, quality of air and life expectancy. We plotted a histogram, performed the Shapiro-Wilk normality test and used spearman correlation to assess the degree of correlation between COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) and other covariates mentioned above. Result: As at the 31st of March 2020, there were a total of 846,281 cases of COVID-19 from 204 countries and a global case fatality rate of 5% (range 0% to 29%). Angola and Sudan both had the highest CFR of 29%, while Italy had the highest number of deaths (i.e. 12,428) as at 31st of March 2020. Adult HIV prevalence has a significant but weak negative correlation with CFR (correlation coefficient = - 0.24, p value =0.01) while all the other variables have positive correlation with CFR due to COVID-19 though not statistically significant. Of the 204 countries analyzed, only 11 countries (i.e. 5%) had complete datasets across all 5 population level morbidities (i.e. prevalence of COPD, prevalence of tobacco use, life expectancy, quality of air, and adult HIV prevalence variables). Correlations of CFR from these 11 countries were similar to that from the 204 countries except for the correlation with quality of air and prevalence of tobacco use. Conclusion: While we interpret our data with caution given the fact that this is an ecological study, our findings suggest that population level factors such as prevalence of COPD, prevalence of tobacco use, life expectancy and quality of air are positively correlated with CFR from COVID-19 but, adult HIV prevalence has a weak and negative correlation with COVID-19 CFR and would require extensive research.

negative: Gastrointestinal and liver manifestations in patients with COVID-19 As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has rapidly spread over the world, the World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of COVID-19 an international public health emergency. Besides typical respiratory symptoms and signs of COVID-19, digestive symptoms and liver injury have been frequently reported during the course of the disease. In this review, we summarized the recent studies reporting of gastrointestinal and liver manifestations during the course of COVID-19. Digestive symptoms, including anorexia, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea, are not uncommon in patients with COVID-19, and in some cases digestive symptoms may occur in the absence of any respiratory symptoms. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 could be detected in the stool of infected patients, implicating the possibility of fecal–oral transmission. Attention should also be paid to monitor liver function during the course of COVID-19, especially in patients with higher disease severity.

negative: What We Know So Far (As of March 26, 2020) About COVID-19 – An MRT Point of View

negative: Projected Increases in Suicide in Canada as a Consequence of COVID-19 Macroeconomic indicators, notably unemployment, are significant moderators of suicide. We projected the number of excess suicides in Canada as a consequence of the impact of COVID-19 on unemployment. Annual suicide mortality (2000-2018) and unemployment (2000-2019) data were derived from Statistics Canada. Time-trend regression models were used to evaluate and predict the number of excess suicides in 2020 and 2021 for two possible projection scenarios following the COVID-19 pandemic: 1) an increase in unemployment of 1.6% in 2020, 1.2% in 2021, or 2) an increase in unemployment of 10.7% in 2020, 8.9% in 2021. A percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 1.0% increase in suicide between 2000-2018. In the first scenario, the rise in unemployment rates resulted in a projected total of 418 excess suicides in 2020-2021 (suicide rate per 100,000: 11.6 in 2020). In the second scenario, the projected suicide rates per 100,000 increased to 14.0 in 2020 and 13.6 in 2021, resulting in 2,114 excess suicides in 2020-2021. These results indicate that suicide prevention in the context of COVID-19-related unemployment is a critical priority. Furthermore, timely access to mental healthcare, financial provisions and social/labour support programs, as well as optimal treatment for mental disorders is urgently needed.

negative: A study of non-prescription usage of antibiotics in the upper respiratory tract infections in the urban population

negative: MERS coronavirus: diagnostics, epidemiology and transmission The first known cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), associated with infection by a novel coronavirus (CoV), occurred in 2012 in Jordan but were reported retrospectively. The case first to be publicly reported was from Jeddah, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Since then, MERS-CoV sequences have been found in a bat and in many dromedary camels (DC). MERS-CoV is enzootic in DC across the Arabian Peninsula and in parts of Africa, causing mild upper respiratory tract illness in its camel reservoir and sporadic, but relatively rare human infections. Precisely how virus transmits to humans remains unknown but close and lengthy exposure appears to be a requirement. The KSA is the focal point of MERS, with the majority of human cases. In humans, MERS is mostly known as a lower respiratory tract (LRT) disease involving fever, cough, breathing difficulties and pneumonia that may progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiorgan failure and death in 20 % to 40 % of those infected. However, MERS-CoV has also been detected in mild and influenza-like illnesses and in those with no signs or symptoms. Older males most obviously suffer severe disease and MERS patients often have comorbidities. Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), another sometimes- fatal zoonotic coronavirus disease that has since disappeared, MERS progresses more rapidly to respiratory failure and acute kidney injury (it also has an affinity for growth in kidney cells under laboratory conditions), is more frequently reported in patients with underlying disease and is more often fatal. Most human cases of MERS have been linked to lapses in infection prevention and control (IPC) in healthcare settings, with approximately 20 % of all virus detections reported among healthcare workers (HCWs) and higher exposures in those with occupations that bring them into close contact with camels. Sero-surveys have found widespread evidence of past infection in adult camels and limited past exposure among humans. Sensitive, validated reverse transcriptase real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-rtPCR)-based diagnostics have been available almost from the start of the emergence of MERS. While the basic virology of MERS-CoV has advanced over the past three years, understanding of the interplay between camel, environment, and human remains limited. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-015-0439-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Severe respiratory illness associated with a nationwide outbreak of enterovirus D68 in the USA (2014): a descriptive epidemiological investigation BACKGROUND: Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has been infrequently reported historically, and is typically associated with isolated cases or small clusters of respiratory illness. Beginning in August, 2014, increases in severe respiratory illness associated with EV-D68 were reported across the USA. We aimed to describe the clinical, epidemiological, and laboratory features of this outbreak, and to better understand the role of EV-D68 in severe respiratory illness. METHODS: We collected regional syndromic surveillance data for epidemiological weeks 23 to 44, 2014, (June 1 to Nov 1, 2014) and hospital admissions data for epidemiological weeks 27 to 44, 2014, (June 29 to Nov 1, 2014) from three states: Missouri, Illinois and Colorado. Data were also collected for the same time period of 2013 and 2012. Respiratory specimens from severely ill patients nationwide, who were rhinovirus-positive or enterovirus-positive in hospital testing, were submitted between Aug 1, and Oct 31, 2014, and typed by molecular sequencing. We collected basic clinical and epidemiological characteristics of EV-D68 cases with a standard data collection form submitted with each specimen. We compared patients requiring intensive care with those who did not, and patients requiring ventilator support with those who did not. Mantel-Haenszel χ(2) tests were used to test for statistical significance. FINDINGS: Regional and hospital-level data from Missouri, Illinois, and Colorado showed increases in respiratory illness between August and September, 2014, compared with in 2013 and 2012. Nationwide, 699 (46%) of 1529 patients tested were confirmed as EV-D68. Among the 614 EV-D68-positive patients admitted to hospital, age ranged from 3 days to 92 years (median 5 years). Common symptoms included dyspnoea (n=513 [84%]), cough (n=500 [81%]), and wheezing (n=427 [70%]); 294 (48%) patients had fever. 338 [59%] of 574 were admitted to intensive care units, and 145 (28%) of 511 received ventilator support; 322 (52%) of 614 had a history of asthma or reactive airway disease; 200 (66%) of 304 patients with a history of asthma or reactive airway disease required intensive care compared with 138 (51%) of 270 with no history of asthma or reactive airway disease (p=0·0004). Similarly, 89 (32%) of 276 patients with a history of asthma or reactive airway disease required ventilator support compared with 56 (24%) of 235 patients with no history of asthma or reactive airway disease (p=0·039). INTERPRETATION: In 2014, EV-D68 caused widespread severe respiratory illness across the USA, disproportionately affecting those with asthma. This unexpected event underscores the need for robust surveillance of enterovirus types, enabling improved understanding of virus circulation and disease burden. FUNDING: None.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)—paradigm of an emerging viral infection Abstract An acute and often severe respiratory illness emerged in southern China in late 2002 and rapidly spread to different areas of the Far East as well as several countries around the globe. When the outbreak of this apparently novel infectious disease termed severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) came to an end in July 2003, it had caused over 8000 probable cases worldwide and more than 700 deaths. Starting in March 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) organised an unprecedented international effort by leading laboratories working together to find the causative agent. Little more than one week later, three research groups from this WHO-coordinated network simultaneously found evidence of a hitherto unknown coronavirus in SARS patients, using different approaches. After Koch’s postulates had been fulfilled, WHO officially declared on 16 April 2003 that this virus never before seen in humans is the cause of SARS. Ever since, progress around SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) has been swift. Within weeks of the first isolate being obtained, its complete genome was sequenced. Diagnostic tests based on the detection of SARS-CoV RNA were developed and made available freely and widely; nevertheless the SARS case definition still remains based on clinical and epidemiological criteria. The agent’s environmental stability, methods suitable for inactivation and disinfection, and potential antiviral compounds have been studied, and development of vaccines and immunotherapeutics is ongoing. Despite its grave consequences in humanitarian, political and economic terms, SARS may serve as an example of how much can be achieved through a well-coordinated international approach, combining the latest technological advances of molecular virology with more “traditional” techniques carried out to an excellent standard.

negative: Cardiac Surgery in Canada During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Guidance Statement From the Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 was a pandemic.1 At that time, only 118,000 cases had been reported globally, 90% of which had occurred in 4 countries.1 Since then, the world landscape has changed dramatically. As of March 31, 2020, there are now nearly 800,000 cases, with truly global involvement.2 Countries that were previously unaffected are currently experiencing mounting rates of the novel coronavirus infection with associated increases in COVID-19-related deaths. At present, Canada has more than 8000 cases of COVID-19, with considerable variation in rates of infection among provinces and territories.3 Amid concerns over growing resource constraints, cardiac surgeons from across Canada have been forced to make drastic changes to their clinical practices. From prioritizing and delaying elective cases to altering therapeutic strategies in high-risk patients, cardiac surgeons, along with their heart teams, are having to reconsider how best to manage their patients. It is with this in mind that the Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons (CSCS) and its Board of Directors have come together to formulate a series of guiding statements. With strong representation from across the country and the support of the Canadian Cardiovascular Society, the authors have attempted to provide guidance to their colleagues on the subjects of leadership roles that cardiac surgeons may assume during this pandemic: patient assessment and triage, risk reduction, and real-time sharing of expertise and experiences.

negative: COVID 19: Real-time Forecasts of Confirmed Cases, Active Cases, and Health Infrastructure Requirements for India and its Majorly Affected States using the ARIMA model. Background: COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a Pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11 2020. This pandemic has spread over the world in more than 200 countries. India is also adversely affected by this pandemic, and there are no signs of slowing down of the virus in coming time. The absence of a vaccine for COVID-19 is making the situation worse for the already overstretched Indian public health care system. Objective: This study is forecasting the confirmed and active cases for COVID-19 until June, using time series ARIMA model. In further analysis, based on predicted active cases, we estimated the requirement of isolation beds, ICU beds and ventilators for COVID-19 patients until June. Methods: We used ARIMA model, and Auto ARIMA model for forecasting confirmed and active cases till the end of June month using time series data of COVID-19 cases in India from March 14, 2020, to May 3 2020. We estimated requirement of ICU beds as 10%, Ventilators as 5% and isolation beds as 85% of the active cases predicted from our calculations. Results: We expect that India will be having 441896 confirmed cases (95% CI: 210240, 673552), 124712 active cases (95% CI: 68481, 180944) at the end of June based on our forecasts. Maharashtra, Punjab, Gujarat and Delhi (UT) will be the most affected states, having the highest number of active and confirmed cases at the end of June while Kerala is expected to have less than 1000 confirmed cases and no active cases at the end of June. We expect that India has to prepare 106006 isolation beds (95% CI: 58209, 153802), 12471 ICU beds (95% CI: 6848,18094) and 6236 ventilators (95% CI: 3424,9047) to accommodate the patients at the end of June. Discussion and Conclusion: Our forecasts show a very alarming situation for India in coming days and, the actual numbers can go higher than our estimates of confirmed cases as India is observing partial lockdown currently. In future, lockdown might be lifted, and in that case, there will be a surge in the number of daily confirmed and active cases. The requirement of isolation beds, ICUs and ventilators will also be increased in that scenario. Migrants returning to their homes due to loss of livelihood and income in the lockdown period may lead to a rise in the number of cases, which could not be accounted for in our projections. We suggest a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model in the health sector to accommodate COVID-19 patients adequately and reduce the burden of the already overstretched Indian public health care system.

negative: Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and rapidly spread worldwide. In the absence of effective antiviral drugs and vaccines, well-targeted social distancing measures are essential for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing strain on local health systems, and preventing mortality. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment of the efficacy of social distancing to slow COVID-19 transmission and reduce hospital surge, depending on the timing and extent of the measures imposed for a metropolitan region and its health care systems. We built a granular mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporated age-specific and risk-stratified heterogeneity, estimates for the transmission, and severity of COVID-19 using current best evidence. We performed thousands of stochastic simulations of COVID-19 transmission in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area to project the impact of school closures coupled with social distancing measures that were estimated to reduce non-household contacts by 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 90%. We compare early versus late implementation and estimate the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, ICU patients, ventilator needs and deaths through mid-August, 2020. We queried local emergency services and hospital systems to estimate total hospital bed, ICU, and ventilator capacity for the region. We expected COVID-19 hospital beds and ICU requirements would surpass local capacity by mid-May if no intervention was taken. Assuming a four-day epidemic doubling time, school closures alone would be expected to reduce peak hospitalizations by only 18% and cumulative deaths by less than 3%. Immediate social distancing measures that reduced non-household contacts by over 75%, such as stay-at-home orders and closing of non-essential businesses, would be required to ensure that COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm local hospital surge capacity. Peak ICU bed demand prior to mid August 2020 would be expected to be reduced from 2,121 (95% CI: 2,018-2,208) with no intervention to 698 (95% CI: 204-1,100) with 75% social distancing and 136 (95% CI: 38-308) with 90% social distancing; current ICU bed capacity was estimated at 680. A two-week delay in implementation of such measures is projected to accelerate a local ICU bed shortage by four weeks. School closures alone hardly impact the epidemic curve. Immediate social distancing measures that reduce non-household contacts by over 75% were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm local hospital surge capacity. These findings helped inform the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by the city of Austin, Texas on March 24, 2020 as a means of mitigating the emerging COVID-19 epidemic.

negative: Projections for novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and evaluation of epidemic response strategies for India BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization on 11 March 2020, declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. India initiated social distancing measures to combat the epidemic of COVID-19. The course of the epidemic of COVID-19 for India was predicted using stochastic probability–based mathematical modeling. METHODS: Data synthesis for the top few countries affected was studied for various factors affecting the epidemic. For projections of infected cases for India, the modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed/recovered framework modified for the effect of social distancing (Rho) was used. Simulation was carried out for 10,000 runs using python. Projections for infected cases and hospitalization requirement were estimated. RESULTS: The epidemic curve will peak in the third week of June in India with 17,525,869 and 2,153,200 infected people with reproduction number of 1.8 and Rho of 0.7 and 0.6, respectively. Compared with the baseline scenario of no social distancing, for transmissibility with R0 = 1.8, the reduction in infections due to social distancing measure is 78% (Rho = 0.7) and 97% (Rho = 0.6). Similarly for R0 = 2.2 and 2.4, the reduction in infected numbers slightly lowers to 62% and 66% with Rho = 0.7 and 92% and 75% with Rho = 0.6, respectively. With R0 = 1.8 and Rho = 0.6, the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) bed requirement is 107,660, whereas if transmissibility is high, the ICU bed requirement would increase to 1,994,682. CONCLUSIONS: The social distancing measures seem to have been working for India in absence of treatment in sight for COVID-19. Although with the government's response strategy of social distancing, the peak of the epidemic is extended giving more months for preparedness to the country; however, the sustainability of these measures is uncertain.

negative: Management of the COVID-19 epidemic by public health establishments - Analysis by the Fédération Hospitalière de France Summary The objective of this article is to detail the measures taken in public institutions to cope with the COVID-19 epidemic. It details the initial strategy, organizational evolution towards "all-COVID", coordination between the various stakeholders and the strategy for maintaining continuity of care. The Quebec experience is also used as an example. Finally, an exit strategy must be anticipated at this phase of the epidemic. Face to the COVID-19 epidemic, the Fédération Hospitalière de France (French hospital federation) took prompt action as soon as the first cases were reported. The objective of this article is to detail these preparatory steps and their development in public institutions, in France and in Canada.

negative: The infection control audit: The standardized audit as a tool for change BACKGROUND: Health care workers' compliance with infection control practices and principles is vital in preventing the spread of disease. One tool to assess infection control practice in clinical areas is the infection control audit; however, many institutions do not approach this in a systematic fashion. METHODS: Key features of the infection control audit were identified by the infection control team and developed into a standardized format for review of clinical areas. The audit incorporates a review of the physical layout, protocols and policies, knowledge of basic infection control principles, and workplace practice review. RESULTS: Over the last 13 years, the infection control unit has completed 17 audits involving 1525 employees. Four-hundred-one staff members have filled out questionnaires that assessed their understanding of standard precautions. A total of 257 recommendations have been made, and 95% of these have been implemented. The majority of recommendations address separation of clean and dirty supplies, hand hygiene compliance, hand hygiene signage, proper use of barriers, and environmental cleaning. CONCLUSION: The infection control audit is an opportunity to implement changes and to introduce remedial measures in collaboration with various departments and services. A standardized approach to the audit allows benchmarking of practices across the institution and enhances standards of care.

negative: Coronavirus main proteinase: target for antiviral drug therapy

negative: Features, Evaluation and Treatment Coronavirus (COVID-19) According to the World Health Organization (WHO), viral diseases continue to emerge and represent a serious issue to public health In the last twenty years, several viral epidemics such as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2002 to 2003, and H1N1 influenza in 2009, have been recorded Most recently, the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 In a timeline that reaches the present day, an epidemic of cases with unexplained low respiratory infections detected in Wuhan, the largest metropolitan area in China's Hubei province, was first reported to the WHO Country Office in China, on December 31, 2019 Published literature can trace the beginning of symptomatic individuals back to the beginning of December 2019 As they were unable to identify the causative agent, these first cases were classified as "pneumonia of unknown etiology " The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and local CDCs organized an intensive outbreak investigation program The etiology of this illness is now attributed to a novel virus belonging to the coronavirus (CoV) family, COVID-19 On February 11, 2020, the WHO Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, announced that the disease caused by this new CoV was a "COVID-19," which is the acronym of "coronavirus disease 2019" In the past twenty years, two additional coronavirus epidemics have occurred SARS-CoV provoked a large-scale epidemic beginning in China and involving two dozen countries with approximately 8000 cases and 800 deaths, and the MERS-CoV that began in Saudi Arabia and has approximately 2,500 cases and 800 deaths and still causes as sporadic cases This new virus seems to be very contagious and has quickly spread globally In a meeting on January 30, 2020, per the International Health Regulations (IHR, 2005), the outbreak was declared by the WHO a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as it had spread to 18 countries with four countries reporting human-to-human transmission An additional landmark occurred on February 26, 2020, as the first case of the disease, not imported from China, was recorded in the United States Initially, the new virus was called 2019-nCoV Subsequently, the task of experts of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) termed it the SARS-CoV-2 virus as it is very similar to the one that caused the SARS outbreak (SARS-CoVs) The CoVs have become the major pathogens of emerging respiratory disease outbreaks They are a large family of single-stranded RNA viruses (+ssRNA) that can be isolated in different animal species For reasons yet to be explained, these viruses can cross species barriers and can cause, in humans, illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as MERS and SARS Interestingly, these latter viruses have probably originated from bats and then moving into other mammalian hosts — the Himalayan palm civet for SARS-CoV, and the dromedary camel for MERS-CoV — before jumping to humans The dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 are currently unknown, but there is speculation that it also has an animal origin The potential for these viruses to grow to become a pandemic worldwide seems to be a serious public health risk Concerning COVID-19, the WHO raised the threat to the CoV epidemic to the "very high" level, on February 28, 2020 Probably, the effects of the epidemic caused by the new CoV has yet to emerge as the situation is quickly evolving World governments are at work to establish countermeasures to stem possible devastating effects Health organizations coordinate information flows and issues directives and guidelines to best mitigate the impact of the threat At the same time, scientists around the world work tirelessly, and information about the transmission mechanisms, the clinical spectrum of disease, new diagnostics, and prevention and therapeutic strategies are rapidly developing Many uncertainties remain with regard to both the virus-host interac ion and the evolution of the epidemic, with specific reference to the times when the epidemic will reach its peak At the moment, the therapeutic strategies to deal with the infection are only supportive, and prevention aimed at reducing transmission in the community is our best weapon Aggressive isolation measures in China have led to a progressive reduction of cases in the last few days In Italy, in geographic regions of the north of the peninsula, political and health authorities are making incredible efforts to contain a shock wave that is severely testing the health system In the midst of the crisis, the authors have chosen to use the "Statpearls" platform because, within the PubMed scenario, it represents a unique tool that may allow them to make updates in real-time The aim, therefore, is to collect information and scientific evidence and to provide an overview of the topic that will be continuously updated

negative: Mapping the Burden of COVID-19 in the United States As of April 5th 2020, SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in over 273,000 confirmed infections in the United States of America. Incidence continues to rise. As the epidemic threatens to overwhelm health care systems, identifying regions where the expected disease burden is likely to be high relative to the rest of the country is critical for enabling prudent and effective distribution of emergency resources. Across all global regions affected by the pandemic, an elevated risk of severe outcomes has consistently been observed in older age groups. Using age-specific mortality patterns in tandem with demographic data, we map a projection of the cumulative burden of COVID-19 and the associated cumulative burden on the healthcare system at the county-scale in the United States for a scenario in which 20% of the population of each county acquires infection. We identify regions that may be particularly impacted relative to the rest of the country, and observe a general trend that per capita disease burden and relative healthcare system demand may be highest away from major population centers.

negative: HIV and Food Insecurity: A Syndemic Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

negative: Managing ACS during COVID-19 infection: do not follow the traditional route COVID-19 pandemic is creating havoc in the world. It is also spreading in India creating a massive healthcare problem. Few major hospitals were closed down because of the spread among healthcare personnel. Management of several commonly occurring diseases needed modifications to a lesser or greater extent because of this pandemic. Management of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) also requires certain modifications. In this opinion paper an attempt has been made to give an outline of ACS management in this changed scenario.

negative: The Effect of Hospital Isolation Precautions on Patient Outcomes and Cost of Care: A Multi-Site, Retrospective, Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study BACKGROUND: Isolation precautions have negative effects on patient safety, psychological well-being, and healthcare worker contact. However, it is not known whether isolation precautions affect certain hospital-related outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of isolation precautions on hospital-related outcomes and cost of care. DESIGN: Retrospective, propensity-score matched cohort study of inpatients admitted to general internal medicine (GIM) services at three academic hospitals in Toronto, Ontario, Canada between January 2010 and December 2012. PARTICIPANTS: Adult (≥18 years of age) patients on isolation precautions for respiratory illnesses and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) were matched to controls based on propensity scores derived from nine covariates: age, sex, Resource Intensity Weight, number of hospital readmissions within 90 days, total length of stay for hospital admissions within 90 days, site of admission, month of isolation, year of isolation, and Case Mix Group. MAIN MEASURES: Thirty-day readmission rates and emergency department visits, hospital length of stay, expected length of stay, adverse events, in-hospital mortality, patient complaints, and cost of care in Canadian doll ars (CAD). KEY RESULTS: A total of 17,649 non-isolated patients were admitted to the participating hospitals during the study period. We identified 1506 patients isolated for respiratory illnesses and 745 patients isolated for MRSA. Compared to non-isolated individuals, those on isolation precautions for respiratory illnesses stayed 17 % longer (95 % CI: 9 %, 25 %), stayed 9 % longer than expected (95 % CI: 3 %, 15 %), and had 23 % higher cost of care (95 % CI: 14 %, 32 %). Patients isolated for MRSA had similar outcomes, but they also had a 4.4 % higher (95 % CI: 1.4 %, 7.3 %) rate of readmission to hospital within 30 days. CONCLUSIONS: Isolation precautions are associated with adverse effects which may result in poorer hospital outcomes. Balancing the benefits for the many with the harms to the few will be a future challenge.

negative: COVID-19 Infections and Outcomes in a Live Registry of Heart Failure Patients Across an Integrated Health Care System Background: Patients with comorbid conditions have a higher risk of mortality with SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection, but the impact on heart failure patients living near a disease hotspot is unknown. Therefore, we sought to characterize the prevalence and outcomes of COVID-19 in a live registry of heart failure patients across an integrated health care system in Connecticut. Methods: In this retrospective analysis, the Yale Heart Failure Registry (NCT04237701) that includes 26,703 patients with heart failure across a 6-hospital integrated health care system in Connecticut, was queried on April 16th, 2020 for all patients tested for COVID-19. Sociodemographic and geospatial data as well as, clinical management, respiratory failure, and patient mortality were obtained via the real-time registry. Data on COVID-19 specific care was extracted by retrospective chart review. Results: COVID-19 testing was performed on 900 symptomatic patients, comprising 3.4% of the Yale Heart Failure Registry (N=26,703). Overall, 206 (23%) were COVID-19+. As compared to COVID-19-, these patients were more likely to be older, black, have hypertension, coronary artery disease, and were less likely to be on renin angiotensin blockers (P<0.05, all). COVID-19- patients tended to be more diffusely spread across the state whereas COVID-19+ were largely clustered around urban centers. 20% of COVID-19+ patients died, and age was associated with increased risk of death [OR 1.92 95% CI (1.33-2.78); P<0.001]. Among COVID-19+ patients who were [≥]85 years of age rates of hospitalization were 87%, rates of death 36%, and continuing hospitalization 62% at time of manuscript preparation. Conclusions: In this real-world snapshot of COVID-19 infection among a large cohort of heart failure patients, we found that a small proportion had undergone testing. Patients found to be COVID-19+ tended to be black with multiple comorbidities and clustered around lower socioeconomic status communities. Elderly COVID-19+ patients were very likely to be admitted to the hospital and experience high rates of mortality.

negative: Cardiac Surgery in Canada During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Guidance Statement From the Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons Abstract On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared that COVID-19 was a pandemic. 1 At that time, only 118,000 cases had been reported globally, 90% of which had occurred in 4 countries. 1 Since then, the world landscape has changed dramatically. As of March 31, 2020, there are now nearly 800,000 cases, with truly global involvement. 2 Countries that were previously unaffected are currently experiencing mounting rates of the novel coronavirus infection with associated increases in COVID-19–related deaths. At present, Canada has more than 8000 cases of COVID-19, with considerable variation in rates of infection among provinces and territories. 3 Amid concerns over growing resource constraints, cardiac surgeons from across Canada have been forced to make drastic changes to their clinical practices. From prioritizing and delaying elective cases to altering therapeutic strategies in high-risk patients, cardiac surgeons, along with their heart teams, are having to reconsider how best to manage their patients. It is with this in mind that the Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons (CSCS) and its Board of Directors have come together to formulate a series of guiding statements. With strong representation from across the country and the support of the Canadian Cardiovascular Society, the authors have attempted to provide guidance to their colleagues on the subjects of leadership roles that cardiac surgeons may assume during this pandemic: patient assessment and triage, risk reduction, and real-time sharing of expertise and experiences. A visual abstract of the main principles underlying our recommended approach is provided in Figure 1.

negative: COVID-19 diagnostics in context. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the need for different types of diagnostics, comparative validation of new tests, faster approval by federal agencies, and rapid production of test kits to meet global demands. In this Perspective, we discuss the utility and challenges of current diagnostics for COVID-19.

negative: Risk Factors for Primary Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in Camel Workers in Qatar During 2013–2014: A Case-Control Study The transmission routes and risk factors for zoonotic Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infections are still unknown. We used the World Health Organization questionnaire for MERS-CoV case-control studies to assess risk factors for human MERS-CoV seropositivity at a farm complex in Qatar. Nine camel workers with MERS-CoV antibodies and 43 workers without antibodies were included. Some camel-related activities may pose a higher risk of MERS-CoV infection, as may cross-border movements of camels, poor hand hygiene, and overnight hospital stays with respiratory complaints. The risk factors identified in this study can be used to develop infection prevention and control measures for human MERS-CoV infections.

negative: Palliative Care Integration Project (PCIP) Quality Improvement Strategy Evaluation Abstract This study evaluated the effectiveness of implementation of common assessment tools, collaborative care plans, and symptom management guidelines for cancer patients as a strategy to improve the quality, coordination, and integration of palliative care service across organizations and health care sectors. A pre-post design to measure the impact on symptom management, caregiver burden and satisfaction with care delivery, and service utilization was used. Two cohorts of eligible patients and caregivers completed Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scales, Caregiver Reaction Assessment and FAMCARE Scales and chart audits were conducted. Administrative data from each participating site were examined for utilization trends. Audits of 53 charts preimplementation and 63 postimplementation showed an increase in documentation of pain from 24.5% to 74.6% (P <0.001) of charts. Administrative data showed a decrease in the percentage of patients with at least one emergency room visit from 94.3% to 84.8% (P <0.001), in the percentage of patients with at least one admission to the acute care hospital (P <0.001), and deaths in acute care 43.1%–35.7% (P =0.133). There was minimal change in the intensity of symptoms (P =0.591), and no change in the burden on the caregiver (P =0.086) or caregiver satisfaction with care (P =0.942). This study showed that implementation of common assessment tools, collaborative care plans, and symptom management guidelines across health sectors can result in some increased documentation of symptoms and efficiencies in care. Future projects should consider imbedding a continuous quality improvement methodology and longer timelines into their projects to improve outcomes.

negative: Interleukin-6 in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Purpose: Coronaviruses may activate dysregulated host immune responses. As exploratory studies have suggested that interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels are elevated in cases of complicated COVID-19 and that the anti-IL-6 biologic tocilizumab may be beneficial, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the evidence in this field. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for studies investigating the immunological response in COVID-19 or its treatment with tocilizumab; additional grey literature searches were undertaken. Meta-analysis was undertaken using random effects models. Results: Eight published studies, three pre-prints, and five registered trials were eligible. Meta-analysis of mean IL-6 concentrations demonstrated 2.9-fold higher levels in patients with complicated COVID-19 compared with patients with non-complicated disease (six studies; n=1302; 95%CI, 1.17-7.19; I2=100%). A single non-randomized, single-arm study assessed tocilizumab in patients with severe COVID-19, demonstrating decreased oxygen requirements, resolution of radiographic abnormalities, and clinical improvement. No adverse events or deaths were observed. Conclusions: In patients with COVID-19, IL-6 levels are significantly elevated and associated with adverse clinical outcomes. While inhibition of IL-6 with tocilizumab appears to be efficacious and safe in preliminary investigation, the results of several ongoing clinical trials should be awaited to better define the role of tocilizumab in COVID-19 prior to routine clinical application.

negative: COVID-19 in a Designated Infectious Diseases HospitalOutside Hubei Province,China Background A new type of novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province. Previous investigations reported patients in Wuhan city often progressed into severe or critical and had a high mortality rate.The clinical characteristics of affected patients outside the epicenter of Hubei province are less well understood. Methods All confirmed COVID-19 case treated in the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen,from January 11, 2020 to February 6, 2020, were included in this study. We analyzed the epidemiological and clinical features of these cases to better inform patient management in normal hospital settings. Results Among the 298 confirmed cases, 233(81.5%) had been to Hubei while 42(14%) had not clear epidemiological history. Only 192(64%) cases presented with fever as initial symptom. The lymphocyte count decreased in 38% patients after admission. The number (percent) of cases classified as non-severe and severe was 240(80.6%) and 58(19.4%) respectively. Thirty-two patients (10.7%) needed ICU care. Compared to the non-severe cases, severe cases were associated with older age, underlying diseases, as well as higher levels of CRP, IL-6 and ESR. The median (IRQ) duration of positive viral test were 14(10-19). Slower clearance of virus was associated with higher risk of progression to severe clinical condition. As of February 14, 2020, 66(22.1%) patients were discharged and the overall mortality rate remains 0. Conclusions In a designated hospital outside the Hubei Province, COVID-19 patients were mainly characterized by mild symptoms and could be effectively manage by properly using the existing hospital system.

negative: Protease inhibitors broadly effective against feline, ferret and mink coronaviruses Abstract Ferret and mink coronaviruses typically cause catarrhal diarrhea in ferrets and minks, respectively. In recent years, however, systemic fatal coronavirus infection has emerged in ferrets, which resembles feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) in cats. FIP is a highly fatal systemic disease caused by a virulent feline coronavirus infection in cats. Despite the importance of coronavirus infections in these animals, there are no effective commercial vaccines or antiviral drugs available for these infections. We have previously reported the efficacy of a protease inhibitor in cats with FIP, demonstrating that a virally encoded 3C-like protease (3CLpro) is a valid target for antiviral drug development for coronavirus infections. In this study, we extended our previous work on coronavirus inhibitors and investigated the structure-activity relationships of a focused library of protease inhibitors for ferret and mink 3CLpro. Using the fluorescence resonance energy transfer assay, we identified potent inhibitors broadly effective against feline, ferret and mink coronavirus 3CLpro. Multiple amino acid sequence analysis and modelling of 3CLpro of ferret and mink coronaviruses were conducted to probe the structural basis for these findings. The results of this study provide support for further research to develop broad-spectrum antiviral agents for multiple coronavirus infections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on small molecule inhibitors of ferret and mink coronaviruses.

negative: Scaling analysis of COVID-19 spreading based on Belgian hospitalization data We analyze the temporal evolution of accumulated hospitalization cases due to COVID-19 in Belgium. The increase of hospitalization cases is consistent with an initial exponential phase, and a subsequent power law growth. For the latter, we estimate a power law exponent of ≈ 2.2, which is consistent with growth kinetics of COVID-19 in China and indicative of the underlying small world network structure of the epidemic. Finally, we fit an SIR-X model to the experimental data and estimate the effect of containment policies in comparison to their effect in China. This model suggests that the base reproduction rate has been significantly reduced, but that the number of susceptible individuals that is isolated from infection is very small. Based on the SIR-X model fit, we analyze the COVID-19 mortality and the number of patients requiring ICU treatment over time.

negative: Covid-19 Testing, Hospital Admission, and Intensive Care Among 2,026,227 United States Veterans Aged 54–75 Years IMPORTANCE: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection causes coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), an evolving pandemic. Limited data are available characterizing SARS-Cov-2 infection in the United States. OBJECTIVE: To determine associations between demographic and clinical factors and testing positive for coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19+), and among Covid-19+ subsequent hospitalization and intensive care. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective cohort study including all patients tested for Covid-19 between February 8 and March 30, 2020, inclusive. We extracted electronic health record data from the national Veterans Affairs Healthcare System, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, on 2,026,227 patients born between 1945 and 1965 and active in care. EXPOSURES: Demographic data, comorbidities, medication history, substance use, vital signs, and laboratory measures. Laboratory tests were analyzed first individually and then grouped into a validated summary measure of physiologic injury (VACS Index). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We evaluated which factors were associated with Covid-19+ among all who tested. Among Covid-19+ we identified factors associated with hospitalization or intensive care. We identified independent associations using multivariable and conditional multivariable logistic regression with multiple imputation of missing values. RESULTS: Among Veterans aged 54–75 years, 585/3,789 (15.4%) tested Covid-19+. In adjusted analysis (C-statistic=0.806) black race was associated with Covid-19+ (OR 4.68, 95% Cl 3.795.78) and the association remained in analyses conditional on site (OR 2.56, 95% Cl 1.89–3.46). In adjusted models, laboratory abnormalities (especially fibrosis-4 score [FIB-4] >3.25 OR 8.73, 95% Cl 4.11–18.56), and VACS Index (per 5-point increase OR 1.62, 95% Cl 1.43–1.84) were strongly associated with hospitalization. Associations were similar for intensive care. Although significant in unadjusted analyses, associations with comorbid conditions and medications were substantially reduced and, in most cases, no longer significant after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Black race was strongly associated with Covid-19+, but not with hospitalization or intensive care. Among Covid-19+, risk of hospitalization and intensive care may be better characterized by laboratory measures and vital signs than by comorbid conditions or prior medication exposure.

negative: Using Google Trends to Examine the Spatio-Temporal Incidence and Behavioral Patterns of Dengue Disease: A Case Study in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines Dengue is a major public health concern and an economic burden in the Philippines. Despite the country’s improved dengue surveillance, it still suffers from various setbacks and needs to be complemented with alternative approaches. Previous studies have demonstrated the potential of Internet-based surveillance such as Google Dengue Trends (GDT) in supplementing current epidemiological methods for predicting future dengue outbreaks and patterns. With this, our study has two objectives: (1) assess the temporal relationship of weekly GDT and dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila from 2009–2014; and (2) examine the health-seeking behavior based on dengue-related search queries of the population. The study collated the population statistics and reported dengue cases in Metropolitan Manila from respective government agencies to calculate the dengue incidence (DI) on a weekly basis for the entire region and annually per city. Data processing of GDT and dengue incidence was performed by conducting an ‘adjustment’ and scaling procedures, respectively, and further analyzed for correlation and cross-correlation analyses using Pearson’s correlation. The relative search volume of the term ‘dengue’ and top dengue-related search queries in Metropolitan Manila were obtained and organized from the Google Trends platform. Afterwards, a thematic analysis was employed, and word clouds were generated to examine the health behavior of the population. Results showed that weekly temporal GDT pattern are closely similar to the weekly DI pattern in Metropolitan Manila. Further analysis showed that GDT has a moderate and positive association with DI when adjusted or scaled, respectively. Cross-correlation analysis revealed a delayed effect where GDT leads DI by 1–2 weeks. Thematic analysis of dengue-related search queries indicated 5 categories namely; (a) dengue, (b) sign and symptoms of dengue, (c) treatment and prevention, (d) mosquito, and (e) other diseases. The majority of the search queries were classified in ‘signs and symptoms’ which indicate the health-seeking behavior of the population towards the disease. Therefore, GDT can be utilized to complement traditional disease surveillance methods combined with other factors that could potentially identify dengue hotspots and help in public health decisions.

negative: Serology characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection since the exposure and post symptoms onset Background Timely diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is the prerequisite for treatment and preventive quarantine. The serology characteristics and complement diagnosis value of antibody test to RNA test needs to be demonstrated. Method A patient cohort study was conducted at the first affiliated hospital of Zhejiang University, China. Serial sera of COVID-19 patients were collected and total antibody (Ab), IgM and IgG antibody against SARS-CoV-2 were detected. The antibody dynamics during the infection were described. Results The seroconversion rate for Ab, IgM and IgG in COVID-19 patients was 98.8% (79/80), 93.8% (75/80) and 93.8% (75/80), respectively. The first detectible serology marker is total antibody and followed by IgM and IgG, with a median seroconversion time of 15, 18 and 20 day post exposure (d.p.e) or 9, 10 and 12 days post onset, separately. The antibody levels increased rapidly since 6 d.p.o and accompanied with the decline of viral load. For patients in the early stage of illness (0-7d.p.o),Ab showed the highest sensitivity (64.1%) compared to the IgM and IgG (33.3% for both, p<0.001). The sensitivities of Ab, IgM and IgG detection increased to 100%, 96.7% and 93.3% two weeks later, respectively. Conclusions Typical acute antibody response is induced during the SARS-CoV-2 infection. The serology testing provides important complementation to RNA test for pathogenic specific diagnosis and helpful information to evaluate the adapted immunity status of patient. It should be strongly recommended to apply well-validated antibody tests in the clinical management and public health practice to improve the control of COVID-19 infection.

negative: A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impacts of population-wide social-distancing interventions. Methods. The tool uses a SEIR compartmental model to project the local spread of the pandemic. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. Results. Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at 6 to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals greater than 70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. Conclusions. Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available.

negative: Mutations across murine hepatitis virus nsp4 alter virus fitness and membrane modifications. UNLABELLED A common feature of infection by positive-sense RNA virus is the modification of host cell cytoplasmic membranes that serve as sites of viral RNA synthesis. Coronaviruses induce double-membrane vesicles (DMVs), but the role of DMVs in replication and virus fitness remains unclear. Coronaviruses encode 16 nonstructural proteins (nsps), three of which, nsp3, nsp4, and nsp6, are necessary and sufficient for DMV formation. It has been shown previously that mutations in murine hepatitis virus (MHV) nsp4 loop 1 that alter nsp4 glycosylation are associated with disrupted DMV formation and result in changes in virus replication and RNA synthesis. However, it is not known whether DMV morphology or another function of nsp4 glycosylation is responsible for effects on virus replication. In this study, we tested whether mutations across nsp4, both alone and in combination with mutations that abolish nsp4 glycosylation, affected DMV formation, replication, and fitness. Residues in nsp4 distinct from glycosylation sites, particularly in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) luminal loop 1, independently disrupted both the number and morphology of DMVs and exacerbated DMV changes associated with loss of glycosylation. Mutations that altered DMV morphology but not glycosylation did not affect virus fitness while viruses lacking nsp4 glycosylation exhibited a loss in fitness. The results support the hypothesis that DMV morphology and numbers are not key determinants of virus fitness. The results also suggest that nsp4 glycosylation serves roles in replication in addition to the organization and stability of MHV-induced double-membrane vesicles. IMPORTANCE All positive-sense RNA viruses modify host cytoplasmic membranes for viral replication complex formation. Thus, defining the mechanisms of virus-induced membrane modifications is essential for both understanding virus replication and development of novel approaches to virus inhibition. Coronavirus-induced membrane changes include double-membrane vesicles (DMVs) and convoluted membranes. Three viral nonstructural proteins (nsps), nsp3, nsp4, and nsp6, are known to be required for DMV formation. It is unknown how these proteins induce membrane modification or which regions of the proteins are involved in DMV formation and stability. In this study, we show that mutations across nsp4 delay virus replication and disrupt DMV formation and that loss of nsp4 glycosylation is associated with a substantial fitness cost. These results support a critical role for nsp4 in DMV formation and virus fitness.

negative: Lactate dehydrogenase levels predict coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and mortality: A pooled analysis Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has now reached a pandemic state, affecting more than a million patients worldwide. Predictors of disease outcomes in these patients need to be urgently assessed to decrease morbidity and societal burden. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) has been associated with worse outcomes in patients with viral infections. In this pooled analysis of 9 published studies (n = 1532 COVID-19 patients), we evaluated the association between elevated LDH levels measured at earliest time point in hospitalization and disease outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Elevated LDH levels were associated with a ~6-fold increase in odds of developing severe disease and a ~16-fold increase in odds of mortality in patients with COVID-19. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.

negative: The date predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain using SutteARIMA The aim of this study is predicted 200.000 cases of Covid-19 in Spain. Covid-19 Spanish confirmed data obtained from Worldometer from 01 March 2020 - 17 April 2020. The data from 01 March 2020 - 10 April 2020 using to fitting with data from 11 April - 17 April 2020. For the evaluation of the forecasting accuracy measures, we use mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Based on the results of SutteARIMA fitting data, the accuracy of SutteARIMA for the period 11 April 2020 - 17 April 2020 is 0.61% and we forecast 20.000 confirmed cases of Spain by the WHO situation report day 90/91 which is 19 April 2020 / 20 April 2020.

negative: A survey of recommended practices made by veterinary practitioners to cow-calf operations in the United States and Canada ABSTRACT Practicing veterinarians (n = 148) who service commercial beef cow-calf herds responded to a survey describing general recommendations made to their clients in terms of vaccine protocol, health, and production practices. Responding veterinarians represented 35 states in the United States and 3 provinces in Canada. More than 50% of responding veterinarians devote over 50% of their practice to service commercial cow-calf producers. The largest group (33%) of veterinarians have been in practice for over 30 yr. Thirty-nine percent of responding veterinarians serviced more than 10,000 cows. Genetic advice is provided by 54% of practicing veterinarians. When vaccinating at branding, the most common recommended vaccines are clostridial (96%), infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR; 94%), bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV; 91%), parainfluenza-3 (PI-3; 90%), and bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) Types 1 and 2 (78 and 77%, respectively). When vaccinating before weaning, the most common recommended vaccines are IBR (99%), BRSV (98%), BVD Types 1 and 2 (96%), PI-3 (93%), clostridial (77%), and Mannheimia haemolytica (77%). When vaccinating after weaning, the most common recommended vaccines are BVD Type 2 (97%), IBR (97%), BVD Type 1 (96%), BRSV (96%), and PI-3 (91%). Over 60% of responding veterinarians recommended that the last preventative vaccine should be administered to cattle 7 to 21 d before shipping. The largest number of respondents (38%) recommended that the earliest age their clients should wean their calves is 90 to 120 d. Castrating bull calves at an age of 0 to 7 d was recommended by 34% of respondents. Calf nutrition is considered as extremely important during a preconditioning program by 82% of responding veterinarians.

negative: Therapeutic alternatives and strategies for drug conservation in the intensive care unit during times of drug shortage: a report of the Ontario COVID-19 ICU Drug Task Force. During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) global pandemic, urgent strategies to alleviate shortages are required. Evaluation of the feasibility, practicality, and value of drug conservation strategies and therapeutic alternatives requires a collaborative approach at the provincial level. The Ontario COVID-19 ICU Drug Task Force was directed to create recommendations suggesting drug conservation strategies and therapeutic alternatives for essential drugs at risk of shortage in the intensive care unit during the COVID-19 pandemic. Recommendations were rapidly developed using a modified Delphi method and evaluated on their ease of implementation, feasibility, and supportive evidence. This article describes the recommendations for drug conservation strategies and therapeutic alternatives for drugs at risk of shortage that are commonly used in the care of critically ill patients. Recommendations are identified as preferred and secondary ones that might be less desirable. Although the impetus for generating this document was the COVID-19 pandemic, recommendations should also be applicable for mitigating drug shortages outside of a pandemic. Proposed provincial strategies for drug conservation and therapeutic alternatives may not all be appropriate for every institution. Local implementation will require consultation from end-users and hospital administrators. Competing equipment shortages and available resources should be considered when evaluating the appropriateness of each strategy.

negative: Infection control and anesthesia: Lessons learned from the Toronto SARS outbreak PURPOSE: To describe the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Toronto, its impact on anesthesia practice and the infection control guidelines adopted to manage patients in the operating room (OR) and to provide emergency intubation outside the OR. CLINICAL FEATURES: The SARS outbreak in Toronto was the result of a single index patient. The causative virus, SARS-CoV, is moderately contagious, and is spread by droplets and contact. The virus gains access to host through the mucosa of the respiratory tract and the eyes. It can affect both healthy and compromised patients. The use of several precautionary measures such as goggles, gloves, gowns and facemasks and the application of various infection control strategies designed to minimize the spread of the virus are discussed. CONCLUSION: In containing the spread of SARS, vigilance and strict infection control are important. This results in the rediscovery of standards of infection control measures in daily anesthesia practice.

negative: $\alpha$-Satellite: An AI-driven System and Benchmark Datasets for Hierarchical Community-level Risk Assessment to Help Combat COVID-19 The novel coronavirus and its deadly outbreak have posed grand challenges to human society: as of March 26, 2020, there have been 85,377 confirmed cases and 1,293 reported deaths in the United States; and the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized coronavirus disease (COVID-19) - which has infected more than 531,000 people with more than 24,000 deaths in at least 171 countries - a global pandemic. A growing number of areas reporting local sub-national community transmission would represent a significant turn for the worse in the battle against the novel coronavirus, which points to an urgent need for expanded surveillance so we can better understand the spread of COVID-19 and thus better respond with actionable strategies for community mitigation. By advancing capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) and leveraging the large-scale and real-time data generated from heterogeneous sources (e.g., disease related data from official public health organizations, demographic data, mobility data, and user geneated data from social media), in this work, we propose and develop an AI-driven system (named $\alpha$-Satellite}, as an initial offering, to provide hierarchical community-level risk assessment to assist with the development of strategies for combating the fast evolving COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, given a specific location (either user input or automatic positioning), the developed system will automatically provide risk indexes associated with it in a hierarchical manner (e.g., state, county, city, specific location) to enable individuals to select appropriate actions for protection while minimizing disruptions to daily life to the extent possible. The developed system and the generated benchmark datasets have been made publicly accessible through our website. The system description and disclaimer are also available in our website.

negative: The Impact of COVID-19 on Diabetes Research in Canada

negative: Comparison of Mental Health Symptoms Prior to and During COVID-19 among Patients with Systemic Sclerosis from Four Countries: A Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network (SPIN) Cohort Study Background: No studies have reported comparisons of mental health symptoms prior to and during COVID-19 in vulnerable populations. Objectives were to compare anxiety and depression symptoms among people with a pre-existing medical condition, the autoimmune disease systemic sclerosis (SSc; scleroderma), including continuous change scores, proportion with change [≥] 1 minimal clinically important difference (MCID), and factors associated with changes, including country. Methods: Pre-COVID-19 Scleroderma Patient-centered Intervention Network Cohort data were linked to COVID-19 data collected April 9 to April 27, 2020. Anxiety symptoms were assessed with the PROMIS Anxiety 4a v1.0 scale (MCID = 4 points) and depression symptoms with the Patient Health Questionnaire-8 (MCID = 3 points). Multiple linear and logistic regression were used to assess factors associated with continuous change and change [≥] 1 MCID. Findings: Among 435 participants (Canada = 98; France = 159; United Kingdom = 50; United States = 128), mean anxiety symptoms increased 4.9 points (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.0 to 5.7). Depression symptom change was negligible (0.3 points; 95% CI -0.7 to 0.2). Compared to France, adjusted scores from the United States and United Kingdom were 3.8 points (95% CI 1.7 to 5.9) and 2.9 points higher (95% CI 0.0 to 5.7); scores for Canada were not significantly different. Odds of increasing by [≥] 1 MCID were twice as high for the United Kingdom (2.0, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.2) and United States (1.9, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.2). Participants who used mental health services pre-COVID had adjusted increases 3.7 points (95% CI 1.7 to 5.7) less than other participants. Interpretation: Anxiety symptoms, but not depression symptoms, increased dramatically during COVID-19 among people with a pre-existing medical condition. Increase was larger in the United Kingdom and United States than in Canada and France but substantially less for people with pre-COVID-19 mental health treatment.

negative: A comparative analysis for SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 has affected the world tremendously. It is critical that biological experiments and clinical designs are informed by computational approaches for time- and cost-effective solutions. Comparative analyses particularly can play a key role to reveal structural changes in proteins due to mutations, which can lead to behavioural changes, such as the increased binding of the SARS-CoV-2 surface glycoprotein to human ACE2 receptors. The aim of this report is to provide an easy to follow tutorial for biologists and others without delving into different bioinformatics tools. More complex analyses such as the use of large-scale computational methods can then be utilised. Starting with a SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence, the report shows visualising DNA sequence features, deriving amino acid sequences, and aligning different genomes to analyse mutations and differences. The report provides further insights into how the SARS-CoV-2 surface glycoprotein mutated for higher binding affinity to human ACE2 receptors, compared to the SARS-CoV protein, by integrating existing 3D protein models.

negative: Outcome of Coronavirus spectrum infections (SARS, MERS, COVID 1 -19) during pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-analysis ABSTRACT Objective The aim of this systematic review was to report pregnancy and perinatal outcomes of Coronavirus (CoV) spectrum infections, and particularly COVID-19 disease due to SARS-COV-2 infection during pregnancy. Data sources Medline, Embase, Cinahl and Clinicaltrials.gov databases were searched electronically utilizing combinations of word variants for “coronavirus” or “severe acute respiratory syndrome” or “SARS” or “Middle East respiratory syndrome” or “MERS” or “COVID-19” and “pregnancy”. The search and selection criteria were restricted to English language. Study eligibility criteria Inclusion criteria were pregnant women with a confirmed Coronavirus related illness, defined as either SARS, MERS or COVID-19. Study appraisal and synthesis methods We used meta-analyses of proportions to combine data and reported pooled proportions. The pregnancy outcomes observed included miscarriage, preterm birth, pre-eclampsia, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes, fetal growth restriction, and mode of delivery. The perinatal outcomes observed were fetal distress, Apgar score < 7 at five minutes, neonatal asphyxia, admission to neonatal intensive care unit, perinatal death, and evidence of vertical transmission. Results 19 studies including 79 women were eligible for this systematic review: 41 pregnancies (51.9%) affected by COVID-19, 12 (15.2%) by MERS, and 26 (32.9%) by SARS. An overt diagnosis of pneumonia was made in 91.8% and the most common symptoms were fever (82.6%), cough (57.1%) and dyspnea (27.0%). For all CoV infections, the rate of miscarriage was 39.1% (95% CI 20.2-59.8); the rate of preterm birth < 37 weeks was 24.3% (95% CI 12.5-38.6); premature prelabor rupture of membranes occurred in 20.7% (95% CI 9.5-34.9), preeclampsia in 16.2% (95% CI 4.2-34.1), and fetal growth restriction in 11.7% (95% CI 3.2-24.4); 84% were delivered by cesarean; the rate of perinatal death was 11.1% (95% CI 84.8-19.6) and 57.2% (95% CI 3.6-99.8) of newborns were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit. When focusing on COVID-19, the most common adverse pregnancy outcome was preterm birth < 37 weeks, occurring in 41.1% (95% CI 25.6-57.6) of cases, while the rate of perinatal death was 7.0% (95% CI 1.4-16.3). None of the 41 newborns assessed showed clinical signs of vertical transmission. Conclusion In mothers infected with coronavirus infections, including COVID-19, >90% of whom also had pneumonia, PTB is the most common adverse pregnancy outcome. Miscarriage, preeclampsia, cesarean, and perinatal death (7-11%) were also more common than in the general population. There have been no published cases of clinical evidence of vertical transmission. Evidence is accumulating rapidly, so these data may need to be updated soon. The findings from this study can guide and enhance prenatal counseling of women with COVID-19 infection occurring during pregnancy.

negative: COVID-19 diagnosis prediction in emergency care patients: a machine learning approach The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has increased the necessity of immediate clinical decisions and effective usage of healthcare resources. Currently, the most validated diagnosis test for COVID-19 (RT-PCR) is in shortage in most developing countries, which may increase infection rates and delay important preventive measures. The objective of this study was to predict the risk of positive COVID-19 diagnosis with machine learning, using as predictors only results from emergency care admission exams. We collected data from a sample of 235 adult patients from the Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein in Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 17 to 30 of March, 2020, of which 102 (43%) received a positive diagnosis of COVID-19 from RT-PCR tests. Five machine learning algorithms (neural networks, random forests, gradient boosting trees, logistic regression and support vector machines) were trained on a random sample of 70% of the patients, and performance was tested on new unseen data (30%). The best predictive performance was obtained by the support vector machines algorithm (AUC: 0.85; Sensitivity: 0.68; Specificity: 0.85; Brier Score: 0.16). In conclusion, we found that targeted decisions for receiving COVID-19 tests using only routinely-collected data is a promising new area with the use of machine learning algorithms.

negative: Comprehensive detection and identification of human coronaviruses, including the SARS-associated coronavirus, with a single RT-PCR assay Abstract The SARS-associated human coronavirus (SARS-HCoV) is a newly described, emerging virus conclusively established as the etiologic agent of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study presents a single-tube RT-PCR assay that can detect with high analytical sensitivity the SARS-HCoV, as well as several other coronaviruses including other known human respiratory coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E). Species identification is provided by sequencing the amplicon, although a rapid screening test by restriction enzyme analysis has proved to be very useful for the analysis of samples obtained during the SARS outbreak in Toronto, Canada.

negative: Lessons from SARS and H1N1/A: Employing a WHO–WTO forum to promote optimal economic-public health pandemic response No formal system exists to review trade restrictions imposed during international public health emergencies rapidly. Failure to put one in place creates disincentives for surveillance and reporting, thereby undermining protection efforts. The 2003 SARS outbreak exposed weaknesses in global governance that caused uncoordinated public health and economic responses. New International Health Regulations (IHR), applied first during the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak, demonstrated improvement. Yet they failed to allow for management of public health emergencies in a way that balanced threats to health and those to economies and trade. Establishment of a joint WHO–WTO committee to adjudicate these conflicts might better achieve that balance.

negative: A Critical Juncture in Fiscal Federalism? Canada's Response to COVID-19 The COVID-19 crisis could trigger a critical juncture for several institutional arrangements in Canada, potentially leading to notable changes in fiscal federalism. This research note combines insights from historical institutionalism with recent economic and fiscal projections to explore avenues for reform in response to the COVID-19 crisis. Given the magnitude of the crisis, provincial governments may be unable to absorb the fiscal costs on their own. But vast differences in fiscal and economic circumstances across provinces make federal arrangements difficult to design. We argue that intergovernmental power dynamics and the principle of provincial autonomy are particularly important considerations in thinking about fiscal federalism post–COVID-19.

negative: Are we ready for the new fatal Coronavirus: scenario of Pakistan?

negative: Respiratory Infection in Institutions during Early Stages of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Canada Outbreaks of respiratory infection in institutions in Ontario, Canada were studied from April 20 to June 12, 2009, during the early stages of the emergence of influenza A pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Despite widespread presence of influenza in the general population, only 2 of 83 outbreaks evaluated by molecular methods were associated with pandemic (H1N1) 2009.

negative: COVID-19: Advice from the Canadian Association of Gastroenterology for Endoscopy Facilities, as of March 16, 2020

negative: Déjà Vu or Jamais Vu? How the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Experience Influenced a Singapore Radiology Department's Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Epidemic. OBJECTIVE. This article shares the ground operational perspective of how a tertiary hospital radiology department in Singapore is responding to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. This same department was also deeply impacted by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003. CONCLUSION. Though similar to SARS, the COVID-19 outbreak has several differences. We share how lessons from 2003 are applied and modified in our ongoing operational response to this evolving novel pathogen.

negative: Screening and managing of suspected or confirmed novel coronavirus (COVID-19) patients: experiences from a tertiary hospital outside Hubei province Objectives: To report our experiences screening and managing patients with suspected or confirmed novel coronavirus (COVID-19) disease using a hospital-specific protocol. Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Setting: A 1,200 bed tertiary care teaching hospital in Chengdu, Sichuan, China. Participants: 802 adults presenting to hospital with concerns of having COVID-19, 1,246 inpatients and 2,531 hospital visitors. Interventions: Screening and management of patients using a hospital-specific protocol, which included fever triage, monitoring visitors and patients, emergency response, personnel training for healthcare team members, health education for patients and family, medical materials management, disinfection and wastes disposal protocols. Results: Between 23 January and 28 February 2020, 73 people were identified as having fever plus respiratory signs with/without a history of exposure and were tested for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by our hospital lab using RT PCR. Forty-five of these 73 people were subsequently excluded based on one negative RT PCR result plus positive results to quick screening tests for flu or other respiratory viruses. The remaining 28 people received a second RT PCR test 24 h later. Three people were confirmed positive for COVID-19 based on two consecutive positive RT PCR tests whilst 25 people were excluded based on two consecutive negative tests. The three COVID-19 confirmed cases received non-critical care. There were no new infections of medical staff or new infections of other hospital inpatients. Conclusions: All three cases were detected as a result of vigilant monitoring of hospital visitors. Whilst screening out-patients presenting to a fever clinic remains important, monitoring visitors must not be overlooked.

negative: Clinical Characteristics and Differential Clinical Diagnosis of Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) has become a rapidly growing pandemic involving several nations. It is of serious concern and extreme challenge not only to the health personnel but also to the countries for containment. The causative organism is SARS-CoV-2, RNA virus of subgenus Sarbecovirus, similar to the SARS virus, and seventh member of the human coronavirus family responsible for this zoonotic infection. It binds to the human angiotensin converting enzyme (hACE-2) receptor and causes constitutional and respiratory symptoms. The major mode of transmission is human to human and the median incubation period is 4 days. The most common symptom as studied from various cohorts of COVID-19 patients are fever (83–98%) followed by fatigue (70%) and dry cough (59%); gastrointestinal symptoms are relatively uncommon differentiating it from SARS and MERS. Most of the SAR-CoV-2 infection are mild (80%) with a usual recovery period of 2 weeks. COVID-19 commonly affects males in the middle age and elderly age group, with highest case fatality (8–15%) among those aged >80 years. The disease begins with fever, dry cough, fatigue and myalgia progressing to dyspnoea and ARDS over 6 and 8 days post exposure, respectively. Underlying co-morbidities increase mortality in COVID-19. Poor prognostic factors are elderly, co-morbidities, severe lymphopaenia, high CRP and D-dimer >1 μg/L. The overall mortality rate ranges from 1.5 to 3.6%. COVID-19 has to be differentiated from other viral and bacterial pneumonias as they are more common among healthy adults. Despite constant and vigorous efforts by researchers and health agencies, we are far from containment, cure or prevention by vaccine; hence right information and stringent prevention and control measures are the only weapon in the armoury to combat the ongoing infection.

negative: Abnormal liver function tests predict transfer to intensive care unit and death in COVID-19 BACKGROUND: The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as a relevant threat for humans worldwide. Abnormality in liver function tests (LFTs) has been commonly observed in patients with COVID-19, but there is controversy on its clinical significance. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, the characteristics and the clinical impact of abnormal LFTs in hospitalized, non-critically ill patients with COVID-19. METHODS: In this multicentre, retrospective study, we collected data about 565 inpatients with COVID-19. Data on LFTs were collected at admission and every 7 ± 2 days during the hospitalization. The primary outcome was a composite endpoint of death or transfer to intensive care unit (ICU). RESULTS: Upon admission 329 patients (58%) had LFTs abnormality. Patients with abnormal LFTs had more severe inflammation and higher degree of organ dysfunction than those without. During hospitalization, patients with abnormal LFTs had a higher rate of transfer to ICU (20% vs 8%; P < .001), acute kidney injury (22% vs 13%, P = .009), need for mechanical ventilation (14% vs 6%; P = .005) and mortality (21% vs 11%; P = .004) than those without. In multivariate analysis, patients with abnormal LFTs had a higher risk of the composite endpoint of death or transfer to ICU (OR = 3.53; P < .001). During the hospitalization, 86 patients developed de novo LFTs abnormality, which was associated with the use of tocilizumab, lopinavir/ritonavir and acetaminophen and not clearly associated with the composite endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: LFTs abnormality is common at admission in patients with COVID-19, is associated with systemic inflammation, organ dysfunction and is an independent predictor of transfer to ICU or death.

negative: Projected Development of COVID-19 in Louisiana At the time of writing, Louisiana has the third highest COVID-19 infection per capita in the United States. The state government issued a stay-at-home order effective March 23rd. We analyze the projected spread of COVID-19 in Louisiana without including the effects of the stay-at-home order. We predict that a large fraction of the state population would be infected without the mitigation efforts, and would certainly overwhelm the capacity of Louisiana health care system. We further predict the outcomes with different degrees of reduction in the infection rate. More than 70% of reduction is required to cap the number of infected to under one million.

negative: COVID-19 epidemic: Power law spread and flattening of the curve In this paper, we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations. Our analysis is up to 7 April 2020. For China and South Korea, who have already flattened their infection curves, the number of infected individuals (I(t)) exhibits power-law behavior before flattening of the curve. Italy has transitioned to the power-law regime for some time. For the other six nations-USA, Spain, Germany, France, Japan, and India-a power-law regime is beginning to appear after exponential growth. We argue that the transition from an exponential regime to a power-law regime may act as an indicator for flattening of the epidemic curve. We also argue that long-term community transmission and/or the transmission by asymptomatic carriers traveling long distances may be inducing the power-law growth of the epidemic.

negative: Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19-Related Patient Outcomes in Different Countries and Plan of Action: A Retrospective Analysis Current development around the pandemic of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents a significant healthcare resource burden threatening to overwhelm the available nationwide healthcare infrastructure. It is essential to consider, especially for resource-limited nations, strategizing the coordinated response to handle this crisis effectively and preparing for the upcoming emergence of calamity caused by this yet-to-know disease entity. Relevant epidemiological data were retrieved from currently available online reports related to COVID-19 patients. The correlation coefficient was calculated by plotting dependant variables - the number of COVID-19 cases and the number of deaths due to COVID 19 on the Y-axis and independent variables - critical-care beds per capita, the median age of the population of the country, the number of COVID-19 tests per million population, population density (persons per square km), urban population percentage, and gross domestic product (GDP) expense on health care - on the X-axis. After analyzing the data, both the fatality rate and the total number of COVID-19 cases were found to have an inverse association with the population density with the variable - the number of cases of COVID-19 - achieving a statistical significance (p-value 0.01). The negative correlation between critical care beds and the fatality rate is well-justified, as intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators are the critical elements in the management of complicated cases. There was also a significant positive correlation between GDP expenses on healthcare by a country and the number of COVID-19 cases being registered (p-value 0.008), although that did not affect mortality (p-value 0.851). This analysis discusses the overview of various epidemiological determinants possibly contributing to the variation in patient outcomes across regions and helps improve our understanding to develop a plan of action and effective control measures in the future.

negative: Communicable Disease Surveillance Ethics in the Age of Big Data and New Technology Surveillance is essential for communicable disease prevention and control. Traditional notification of demographic and clinical information, about individuals with selected (notifiable) infectious diseases, allows appropriate public health action and is protected by public health and privacy legislation, but is slow and insensitive. Big data–based electronic surveillance, by commercial bodies and government agencies (for profit or population control), which draws on a plethora of internet- and mobile device–based sources, has been widely accepted, if not universally welcomed. Similar anonymous digital sources also contain syndromic information, which can be analysed, using customised algorithms, to rapidly predict infectious disease outbreaks, but the data are nonspecific and predictions sometimes misleading. However, public health authorities could use these online sources, in combination with de-identified personal health data, to provide more accurate and earlier warning of infectious disease events—including exotic or emerging infections—even before the cause is confirmed, and allow more timely public health intervention. Achieving optimal benefits would require access to selected data from personal electronic health and laboratory (including pathogen genomic) records and the potential to (confidentially) re-identify individuals found to be involved in outbreaks, to ensure appropriate care and infection control. Despite existing widespread digital surveillance and major potential community benefits of extending its use to communicable disease control, there is considerable public disquiet about allowing public health authorities access to personal health data. Informed public discussion, greater transparency and an ethical framework will be essential to build public trust in the use of new technology for communicable disease control.

negative: E-health in the East Asian tigers Summary Objective: The article analyzes e-health progress in East Asia's leading tiger economies: Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. It describes five main dimensions of e-health provision in the tigers: policymaking, regulation, provision, funding and physician-patient relations. Methods: We conducted a series of fieldwork interviews and analyzed key healthcare websites. Results and Conclusion: Our main finding is that the development of e-health in the region is less advanced than might be expected. Our explanation focuses on institutional, cultural and financial factors.

negative: The challenges of the COVID‐19 pandemic: Approaches for the elderly and those with Alzheimer's disease Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) is an infectious disease that since its outbreak in December 2019 has become a global pandemic. COVID‐19 is caused by the previously unknown coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2. The elderly are the most vulnerable to COVID‐19, and have the highest mortality of the afflicted. Similar patterns have been observed in epidemics and pandemics throughout the 20th and the beginning of the 21st centuries. In this article, we review some unique challenges the elderly and people with Alzheimer's disease face during the COVID‐19 pandemic and suggest approaches that could be taken from healthcare and social approaches to better handle this pandemic.

negative: Large-Scale Air Medical Operations in the Age of Coronavirus Disease 2019: Early Leadership Lessons From the Front Lines of British Columbia Abstract In late 2019, a novel coronavirus was identified as the cause of a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China. It subsequently spread throughout China and around the world, quickly becoming a public health emergency. In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease 2019 a pandemic. This article explores the preparation and early experiences of a large Canadian critical care transport program during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic focused on 6 broad strategic objectives centered around staff welfare, regular and transparent communication, networking, evidenced-based approach to personal protective equipment, agile mission planning, and an expedited approach to clinical practice and policy updates and future state modeling.

negative: Regulatory oversight of human pathogens and toxins in Canada. From 1994 to 2009, federal oversight of human pathogens and toxins was limited to facilities importing human pathogens and toxins into Canada under the Human Pathogens Importation Regulations (HPIR). This narrow focus of authority restricted the Government of Canada's ability to regulate and monitor a full range of activities, including those involving human pathogens and toxins acquired from domestic sources. In 2009, the Human Pathogens and Toxins Act (the Act) received Royal Assent to establish a national safety and security regime and expand oversight through a national, standardized process to verify safe and secure use of human pathogens and toxins in Canada. The Act and the Human Pathogens and Toxins Regulations (the Regulations), in full force since December 1, 2015, provides legislative and statutory requirements for the comprehensive oversight of the control of human pathogens and toxins in Canada. Expanded regulation and monitoring program activities aim to reduce the risks posed by human pathogens and toxins and strengthen biosafety management systems that serve to protect the health of Canadians.

negative: COVID-19 and mental health: A review of the existing literature Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is a major health crisis affecting several nations, with over 720,000 cases and 33,000 confirmed deaths reported to date. Such widespread outbreaks are associated with adverse mental health consequences. Keeping this in mind, existing literature on the COVID-19 outbreak pertinent to mental health was retrieved via a literature search of the PubMed database. Published articles were classified according to their overall themes and summarized. Preliminary evidence suggests that symptoms of anxiety and depression (16–28%) and self-reported stress (8%) are common psychological reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic, and may be associated with disturbed sleep. A number of individual and structural variables moderate this risk. In planning services for such populations, both the needs of the concerned people and the necessary preventive guidelines must be taken into account. The available literature has emerged from only a few of the affected countries, and may not reflect the experience of persons living in other parts of the world. In conclusion, subsyndromal mental health problems are a common response to the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need for more representative research from other affected countries, particularly in vulnerable populations.

negative: Canadian Stroke Best Practice Guidance During the COVID-19 Pandemic

negative: COVID-19: Pandemic Contingency Planning for the Allergy and Immunology Clinic In the event of a global infectious pandemic, drastic measures may be needed that limit or require adjustment of ambulatory allergy services. However, no rationale for how to prioritize service shut down and patient care exists. A consensus-based ad-hoc expert panel of allergy/immunology specialists from the United States and Canada developed a service and patient prioritization schematic to temporarily triage allergy/immunology services. Recommendations and feedback were developed iteratively, using an adapted modified Delphi methodology to achieve consensus. During the ongoing pandemic while social distancing is being encouraged, most allergy/immunology care could be postponed/delayed or handled through virtual care. With the exception of many patients with primary immunodeficiency, patients on venom immunotherapy, and patients with asthma of a certain severity, there is limited need for face-to-face visits under such conditions. These suggestions are intended to help provide a logical approach to quickly adjust service to mitigate risk to both medical staff and patients. Importantly, individual community circumstances may be unique and require contextual consideration. The decision to enact any of these measures rests with the judgment of each clinician and individual health care system. Pandemics are unanticipated, and enforced social distancing/quarantining is highly unusual. This expert panel consensus document offers a prioritization rational to help guide decision making when such situations arise and an allergist/immunologist is forced to reduce services or makes the decision on his or her own to do so.

negative: Diabetes and COVID-19 Summary According to previous reports, diabetes seems to be a risk factor which worsens the serious clinical events caused by COVID-19. But is diabetes per se a risk factor that increases the probability of getting the virus? This paper will discuss this point. There are not many research data on antidiabetic drugs in this context. The potential influence of glucose-lowering agents on the severity of COVID-19 has not been described yet. Dipeptidylpeptidase-4 (DPP-4) is a cell surface protein ubiquitously expressed in many tissues and it is also a soluble molecule found in serum/plasma fluids. DPP-4 is involved in infection of cells by some viruses. This paper reviews data about the use of DPP-4 inhibitors and others diabetes drugs on COVID-19 patients. As such, no available evidence has yet suggested that glucose-lowering drugs – including those targeting DPP4-related pathways – produce any significant harm or benefit in the context of human infections. However, insulin must remain the first-choice agent in the management of critically ill-hospitalized patients, while it is recommended to suspend other agents in unstable patients. This paper provides related French and international recommendations for people with diabetes who got infected by COVID-19 and upholds that infections may alter glucose control and may require additional vigilance.

negative: Canada 2010: what should global health expect?

negative: Predictors of mortality in hospitalized COVID‐19 patients: A systematic review and meta‐analysis Mortality rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) continue to rise across the world. Information regarding the predictors of mortality in COVID‐19 patients remains scarce. Herein, we performed a systematic review of published articles, from January 1 to April 24, 2020, to evaluate the risk factors associated with mortality in COVID‐19. Two investigators independently searched the articles and collected the data, in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. We looked for associations between mortality and patient characteristics, comorbidities, and laboratory abnormalities. A total of 14 studies documenting the outcomes of 4659 patients were included. The presence of comorbidities such as hypertension (OR 2.5; 95% CI 2.1‐3.1; P<0.00001), coronary heart disease (OR 3.8; 95% CI 2.1‐6.9; P<0.00001) and diabetes (OR 2.0; 95% CI 1.7‐2.3; P<0.00001) were associated with significantly higher risk of death amongst COVID‐19 patients. Those who died, compared to those who survived, differed on multiple biomarker levels on admission including elevated levels of cardiac troponin (+44.2 ng/L, 95% CI 19.0‐69.4; P=0.0006); C‐reactive protein (+66.3 µg/mL, 95% CI 46.7‐85.9; P<0.00001); interleukin‐6 (+4.6 ng/mL, 95% CI 3.6‐5.6; P<0.00001); D‐dimer (+4.6 µg/mL, 95% CI 2.8‐6.4; P<0.00001); creatinine (+15.3 µmol/L, 95% CI 6.2‐24.3; P=0.001) and alanine transaminase (+5.7 U/L, 95% CI 2.6‐8.8; P=0.0003); as well as decreased levels of albumin (‐3.7 g/L, 95% CI ‐5.3 to ‐2.1; P<0.00001). Individuals with underlying cardiometabolic disease and that present with evidence for acute inflammation and end‐organ damage are at higher risk of mortality due to COVID‐19 infection and should be managed with greater intensity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

negative: Brainstem dysfunction in critically ill patients The brainstem conveys sensory and motor inputs between the spinal cord and the brain, and contains nuclei of the cranial nerves. It controls the sleep-wake cycle and vital functions via the ascending reticular activating system and the autonomic nuclei, respectively. Brainstem dysfunction may lead to sensory and motor deficits, cranial nerve palsies, impairment of consciousness, dysautonomia, and respiratory failure. The brainstem is prone to various primary and secondary insults, resulting in acute or chronic dysfunction. Of particular importance for characterizing brainstem dysfunction and identifying the underlying etiology are a detailed clinical examination, MRI, neurophysiologic tests such as brainstem auditory evoked potentials, and an analysis of the cerebrospinal fluid. Detection of brainstem dysfunction is challenging but of utmost importance in comatose and deeply sedated patients both to guide therapy and to support outcome prediction. In the present review, we summarize the neuroanatomy, clinical syndromes, and diagnostic techniques of critical illness-associated brainstem dysfunction for the critical care setting.

negative: Clinical features of the first cases and a cluster of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Bolivia imported from Italy and Spain Abstract Introduction In March 2020, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) arrived in Bolivia. Here, we report the main clinical findings, and epidemiological features of the first series of cases, and a cluster, confirmed in Bolivia. Methods For this observational, retrospective and cross-sectional study, information was obtained from the Hospitals and the Ministry of Health for the cases that were laboratory-diagnosed and related, during March 2020. rRT-PCR was used for the detection of the RNA of SARS-CoV-2 following the protocol Charité, Berlin, Germany, from nasopharyngeal swabs. Results Among 152 suspected cases investigated, 12 (7.9%) were confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 infected by rRT-PCR. The median age was 39 years (IQR 25–43), six of them male. Two cases proceed from Italy and three from Spain. Nine patients presented fever, and cough, five sore throat, and myalgia, among other symptoms. Only a 60 y-old woman with hypertension was hospitalized. None of the patients required ICU nor fatalities occurred in this group. Conclusions This is the first report of surveillance of COVID-19 in Bolivia, with patients managed mainly with home isolation. Preparedness for a significant epidemic, as is going on in other countries, and the deployment of response plans for it, in the country is now taking place to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the population.

negative: 2448. Clinical Presentation and Outcomes of Long-Term Care Residents with Coronavirus Respiratory Infection: A Retrospective Cohort Study BACKGROUND: Human coronaviruses (CoVs) are a major cause of respiratory infection and institutional outbreaks, yet the epidemiology and clinical outcomes of these viruses is poorly described among the elderly residing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of LTCF residents with positive nasopharyngeal or mid-turbinate swabs for CoVs (OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1) between January 2013 and December 2018. Demographic and clinical data were obtained from resident charts including clinical presentation, treatment, outcome, and transmission to other residents. Variables were compared using univariate analysis. RESULTS: 3268 residents met inclusion criteria (median age 93 years, 90% male) comprising 7.5% (246/3268) of all positive respiratory virus specimens detected during the study period. 97(39%) of cases were associated with a respiratory outbreak while 149(61%) were sporadic cases that did not result in transmission. OC43 (52%) was the most commonly identified CoV and was more commonly associated with outbreak cases (76% vs. 37%; P < 0.001). In total, 87% of all cases had two or more of runny nose/congestion, cough, sore throat/hoarse voice or fever. The most common symptoms among residents were cough (85%), runny nose/congestion (79%), and sore throat/hoarse voice (59%) and only 17% of residents had a measured temperature of ≥ 37.8C. Only 6% of residents received antibiotic treatment for suspected secondary bacterial pneumonia. The 30-day mortality rate was 3.7% with 67% of deaths attributable to the CoV infection. There was no statistically significant difference in symptoms, treatment or outcomes associated with outbreaks or seasonality. CONCLUSION: CoVs make up an important proportion of respiratory viral infections among LTCF residents and may result in frequent outbreaks. Most residents remain afebrile and have self-limited illness while only a small minority develop secondary bacterial pneumonia and death. Given these findings the benefits of control measures should be weighed against the impact on resident quality of life. DISCLOSURES: All authors: No reported disclosures.

negative: COVID-19: Stroke Admissions, Emergency Department Visits, and Prevention Clinic Referrals We assessed the impact of the coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic on code stroke activations in the emergency department, stroke unit admissions, and referrals to the stroke prevention clinic at London's regional stroke center, serving a population of 1.8 million in Ontario, Canada. We found a 20% drop in the number of code strokes in 2020 compared to 2019, immediately after the first cases of COVID-19 were officially confirmed. There were no changes in the number of stroke admissions and there was a 22% decrease in the number of clinic referrals, only after the provincial lockdown. Our findings suggest that the decrease in code strokes was mainly driven by patient-related factors such as fear to be exposed to the SARS-CoV-2, while the reduction in clinic referrals was largely explained by hospital policies and the Government lockdown.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome—a global concern—influenza virus isolated from suspected cases in Brazil from April to June 2003 Abstract Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a condition associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Coronavirus has been associated with this severe emerging disease, with a pattern suggesting droplet or contact transmission. From April to June 2003, Institute Adolfo Lutz received 16 respiratory secretions from hospitalized patients with recent history of travel to an area with local transmission of SARS. Rapid antigen detection for influenza A and B, parainfluenza types 1, 2 and 3, respiratory syncytial virus and adenovirus; electron microscopy, polymerase chain reaction (PCR), reverse transcription PCR (RT–PCR) and serologic assay were performed. Virus isolation attempts were performed in Hep-2, Vero, MDCK, NCI-H292, MRC-5, LLC-MK2 and FRhK-4. Influenza virus of type A/Panama/2007/99 (H3N2) and A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N2) were identified.

negative: Estimation of COVID-2019 burden and potential for international dissemination of infection from Iran The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and continues to spread globally, with exported cases confirmed in 28 countries at the time of writing. During the interval between February 19 and 23, 2020, Iran reported its first 43 cases with eight deaths. Three exported cases originating in Iran were identified, suggesting a underlying burden of disease in that country than is indicated by reported cases. A large epidemic in Iran could further fuel global dissemination of COVID-19. We sought to estimate COVID-19 outbreak size in Iran based on known exported case counts and air travel links between Iran and other countries, and to anticipate where infections originating in Iran may spread to next. We assessed interconnectivity between Iran and other countries using using International Air Transport Association (IATA) data. We used the methods of Fraser et al. to estimate the size of the underlying epidemic that would result in cases being observed in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Lebanon, and Canada. Time at risk estimates were based on a presumed 6 week epidemic age, and length of stay data for visitors to Iran derived from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). We evaluated the relationship between the strength of travel links with Iran, and destination country rankings on the Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI), a validated metric that estimates the capacity of a country to respond to an infectious disease outbreak . Scores range between 0-1, with higher scores reflecting greater capacity to manage infectious outbreaks. UAE, Lebanon, and Canada ranked 3rd, 21st, and 31st, respectively, for outbound air travel volume from Iran in February 2019. We estimated that 18,300 (95% confidence interval: 3770 to 53,470) COVID-19 cases would have had to occur in Iran, assuming an outbreak duration of 1.5 months in the country, in order to observe these three internationally exported cases reported at the time of writing. Results were robust under varying assumptions about undiagnosed case numbers in Syria, Azerbaijan and Iraq. Even if it were assumed that all cases were identified in all countries with certainty, the "best case" outbreak size was substantial (1820, 95% CI: 380-5320 cases), and far higher than reported case counts. Given the low volumes of air travel to countries with identified cases of COVID-19 with origin in Iran (such as Canada), it is likely that Iran is currently experiencing a COVID-19 epidemic of significant size for such exportations to be occurring. This is concerning, both for public health in Iran itself, and because of the high likelihood for outward dissemination of the epidemic to neighbouring countries with lower capacity to respond to infectious diseases epidemics.

negative: A Social Network Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic In the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, currently vaccines and specific anti-viral treatment are not yet available. Thus, preventing viral transmission by case isolation, quarantine, and social distancing is essential to slowing its spread. Here we model social networks using weighted graphs, where vertices represent individuals and edges represent contact. As public health measures are implemented, connectivity in the graph decreases, resulting in lower effective reproductive numbers, and reduced viral transmission. For COVID-19, model parameters were derived from the coronavirus epidemic in China, validated by epidemic data in Italy, then applied to the United States. We calculate that, in the U.S., the public is able to contain viral transmission by limiting the average number of contacts per person to less than 7 unique individuals over each 5 day period. This increases the average social distance between individuals to 10 degrees of separation.

negative: Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - United States, February 12-March 16, 2020 Globally, approximately 170,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) have been reported, including an estimated 7,000 deaths in approximately 150 countries (1). On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic (2). Data from China have indicated that older adults, particularly those with serious underlying health conditions, are at higher risk for severe COVID-19-associated illness and death than are younger persons (3). Although the majority of reported COVID-19 cases in China were mild (81%), approximately 80% of deaths occurred among adults aged ≥60 years; only one (0.1%) death occurred in a person aged ≤19 years (3). In this report, COVID-19 cases in the United States that occurred during February 12-March 16, 2020 and severity of disease (hospitalization, admission to intensive care unit [ICU], and death) were analyzed by age group. As of March 16, a total of 4,226 COVID-19 cases in the United States had been reported to CDC, with multiple cases reported among older adults living in long-term care facilities (4). Overall, 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 were among adults aged ≥65 years with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years. In contrast, no ICU admissions or deaths were reported among persons aged ≤19 years. Similar to reports from other countries, this finding suggests that the risk for serious disease and death from COVID-19 is higher in older age groups.

negative: Critical care services in Ontario: a survey-based assessment of current and future resource needs. PURPOSE In response to the challenges of an aging population and decreasing workforce, the provision of critical care services has been a target for quality and efficiency improvement efforts. Reliable data on available critical care resources is a necessary first step in informing these efforts. We sought to describe the availability of critical care resources, forecast the future requirement for the highest-level critical care beds and to determine the physician management models in critical care units in Ontario, Canada. METHODS In June 2006, self-administered questionnaires were mailed to the Chief Executive Officers of all acute care hospitals, identified through the Ontario government's hospital database. The questionnaire solicited information on the number and type of critical care units, number of beds, technological resources and management of each unit. RESULTS Responses were obtained from 174 (100%) hospitals, with 126 (73%) reporting one or more critical care units. We identified 213 critical care units in the province, representing 1789 critical care beds. Over half (59%) of these beds provided mechanical ventilation on a regular basis, representing a capacity of 14.9 critical care and 8.7 mechanically ventilated beds per 100,000 population. Sixty-three percent of units with capacity for mechanical ventilation involved an intensivist in admission and coordination of care. Based on current utilization, the demand for mechanically ventilated beds by 2026 is forecast to increase by 57% over levels available in 2006. Assuming 80% bed utilization, it is estimated that an additional 810 ventilated beds will be needed by 2026. CONCLUSION Current utilization suggests a substantial increase in the need for the highest-level critical care beds over the next two decades. Our findings also indicate that non-intensivists direct care decisions in a large number of responding units. Unless major investments are made, significant improvements in efficiency will be required to maintain future access to these services.

negative: Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak The novel coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) in mainland China has rapidly spread across the globe. Within 2 mo since the outbreak was first reported on December 31, 2019, a total of 566 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS CoV-2) cases have been confirmed in 26 other countries. Travel restrictions and border control measures have been enforced in China and other countries to limit the spread of the outbreak. We estimate the impact of these control measures and investigate the role of the airport travel network on the global spread of the COVID-19 outbreak. Our results show that the daily risk of exporting at least a single SARS CoV-2 case from mainland China via international travel exceeded 95% on January 13, 2020. We found that 779 cases (95% CI: 632 to 967) would have been exported by February 15, 2020 without any border or travel restrictions and that the travel lockdowns enforced by the Chinese government averted 70.5% (95% CI: 68.8 to 72.0%) of these cases. In addition, during the first three and a half weeks of implementation, the travel restrictions decreased the daily rate of exportation by 81.3% (95% CI: 80.5 to 82.1%), on average. At this early stage of the epidemic, reduction in the rate of exportation could delay the importation of cases into cities unaffected by the COVID-19 outbreak, buying time to coordinate an appropriate public health response.

negative: Community pharmacists and communication in the time of COVID-19: Applying the health belief model Abstract The emergence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic presents an unprecedented health communications challenge. Healthcare providers should reinforce behaviors that limit the spread of the pandemic, including social distancing and remaining in the home whenever possible. Formal communications toolkits may not be prepared in a timely fashion. Community pharmacists can reinforce mitigation behaviors by applying the health belief model (HBM). This commentary provides an overview of the HBM and offers suggestions on how community pharmacists can use it as a guide to patient communication in these uncertain contexts.

negative: Effectiveness of Testing, Tracing, Social Distancing and Hygiene in Tackling Covid-19 in India: A System Dynamics Model We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard SEIR model. The model is customized for India by using the appropriate population pyramid, contact rate matrices, external arrivals (as per actual data), and a few other calibrated fractions based on the reported cases of Covid-19 in India. Also, we have explicitly modeled, using independent time-variant levers, the effects of testing, contact tracing, isolating Covid-positive patients, quarantining, use of mask/better hygiene practices, social distancing through contact rate reductions at distinct zones of home(H), work(W), school(S) and other(O) locations. Simulation results show that, even after an extended lock-down, some non-trivial number of infections (even asymptomatic) will be left and the pandemic will resurface. Only tools that work against the pandemic is high rate of testing of those who show Covid-19 like symptoms, isolating them if they are positive and contact tracing all contacts of positive patients and quarantining them, in combination with use of face masks and personal hygiene. A wide range of combination of effectiveness of contact tracing, isolation, quarantining and personal hygiene measures help minimize the pandemic impact and some imperfections in implementation of one measure can be compensated by better implementation of other measures.

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the last two years: Health care workers still at risk BACKGROUND: An important emerging respiratory virus is the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). MERS-CoV had been associated with a high case fatality rate especially among severe cases. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of reported MERS-CoV cases between December 2016 and January 2019, as retrieved from the World Health Organization. The aim of this study is to examine the epidemiology of reported cases and quantify the percentage of health care workers (HCWs) among reported cases. RESULTS: There were 403 reported cases with a majority being men (n = 300; 74.4%). These cases were reported from Lebanon, Malaysia, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. HCWs represented 26% and comorbidities were reported among 71% of non-HCWs and 1.9% among HCWs (P < .0001). Camel exposure and camel milk ingestion were reported in 64% each, and the majority (97.8%) of those with camel exposures had camel milk ingestion. There were 58% primary cases and 42% were secondary cases. The case fatality rate was 16% among HCWs compared with 34% among other patients (P = .001). The mean age ± SD was 47.65 ± 16.28 for HCWs versus 54.23 ± 17.34 for non-HCWs (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV infection continues to have a high case fatality rate and a large proportion of patients were HCWs. Further understanding of the disease transmission and prevention mainly in health care settings are needed.

negative: Progress in Global Surveillance and Response Capacity 10 Years after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Ten years have elapsed since the World Health Organization issued its first global alert for an unexplained illness named severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The anniversary provides an opportunity to reflect on the international response to this new global microbial threat. While global surveillance and response capacity for public health threats have been strengthened, critical gaps remain. Of 194 World Health Organization member states that signed on to the International Health Regulations (2005), <20% had achieved compliance with the core capacities required by the deadline in June 2012. Lessons learned from the global SARS outbreak highlight the need to avoid complacency, strengthen efforts to improve global capacity to address the next pandemic using all available 21st century tools, and support research to develop new treatment options, countermeasures, and insights while striving to address the global inequities that are the root cause of many of these challenges.

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2): An Update Coronaviruses (CoVs) belong to the family of Coronaviridae, the order Nidovirales, and the genus Coronavirus. They are the largest group of viruses causing respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. Morphologically, CoVs are enveloped viruses containing a non-segmented positive-sense, single-stranded ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses. CoVs are categorized into four important genera that include Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus, and Deltacoronavirus. A novel member of human CoV that has recently emerged in Wuhan, China, is now formally named as SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). This is a unique strain of RNA viruses that have not been previously observed in humans. The virus has wide host adaptability and is capable of causing severe diseases in humans, masked palm civets, mice, dogs, cats, camels, pigs, chickens, and bats. The SARS-CoV-2 typically causes respiratory and gastrointestinal sickness in both humans and animals. It can be transmitted through aerosols and direct/indirect contact, as well as during medical cases and laboratory sample handling. Specific structural proteins, which might be found on the surface of the virus, play an important role in the pathogenesis and development of the complications. The disease is characterized by distinct medical signs and symptoms that include high fever, chills, cough, and shortness of breath or difficulty in breathing. The infected people may also present with other symptoms such as diarrhea, myalgia, fatigue, expectoration, and hemoptysis. It is important from the public health and economic point of view as it affects the growth of the country, which is majorly attributed to the restriction in the movement of the people and the cost associated with the control and prevention of the disease. Since there is no specific therapeutic intervention nor a vaccine available against the virus, supportive management and treatment with non-specific therapeutic agents (repurposed drugs) may provide relief to the patients. Some preventive strategies of the disease include blocking the routes of transmission of the infections, disinfection of instruments used during medical case handling, using personal protective equipment, proper and early diagnosis of the disease, avoiding contact with the sick patients, and quarantine of the infected/exposed people.

negative: Charting a Research Agenda for the Advancement of Nursing Organizations' Influence on Health Systems and Policy. Nursing organizations across Canada play a significant role in influencing and shaping public policy. 2020, the Year of the Nurse and the Midwife, is an opportune time not only to support nurses in building policy leadership but also to explore opportunities to better understand and strengthen the policy advocacy work of nursing organizations. Given various social, political, and economic forces, the nature of organized nursing across Canada is changing significantly. We draw on recent key national and global events including our systematic inquiry into the Canada's 2019 federal election, the Year of the Nurse and Midwife, and the Coronavirus pandemic to examine how Canadian nursing organizations respond in highly complex and evolving contexts. We use our observations to offer a vision and chart a research agenda for the advancement of nursing organizations' influence on health systems and policy. Specifically, we focus on three key areas including examining nursing organizations' policy agendas and spheres of influence; nursing organizations' decision-making around policy advocacy tactics and engagement approaches; and the impact of policy advocacy coalitions and networks on nursing organizations' influence.

negative: A Hospital Partnership with a Nursing Home Experiencing a COVID-19 Outbreak: Description of a Multiphase Emergency Response in Toronto, Canada Nursing homes have become "ground zero" for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in North America, with homes experiencing widespread outbreaks, resulting in severe morbidity and mortality among their residents. This article describes a 371-bed acute-care hospital's emergency response to a 126-bed nursing home experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak in Toronto, Canada. Like other healthcare system responses to COVID-19 outbreaks in nursing homes, this hospital-nursing home partnership can be characterized in several phases: (1) engagement, relationship, and trust building; (2) environmental scan, team building, and immediate response; (3) early-phase response; and (4) stabilization and transition period. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1376-1381, 2020.

negative: Prisons and custodial settings are part of a comprehensive response to COVID-19

negative: Is ethnicity linked to incidence or outcomes of covid-19?

negative: Psychiatric and neuropsychiatric presentations associated with severe coronavirus infections: a systematic review and meta-analysis with comparison to the COVID-19 pandemic BACKGROUND: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, coronaviruses caused two noteworthy outbreaks: severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), starting in 2002, and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), starting in 2012. We aimed to assess the psychiatric and neuropsychiatric presentations of SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature databases (from their inception until March 18, 2020), and medRxiv, bioRxiv, and PsyArXiv (between Jan 1, 2020, and April 10, 2020) were searched by two independent researchers for all English-language studies or preprints reporting data on the psychiatric and neuropsychiatric presentations of individuals with suspected or laboratory-confirmed coronavirus infection (SARS coronavirus, MERS coronavirus, or SARS coronavirus 2). We excluded studies limited to neurological complications without specified neuropsychiatric presentations and those investigating the indirect effects of coronavirus infections on the mental health of people who are not infected, such as those mediated through physical distancing measures such as self-isolation or quarantine. Outcomes were psychiatric signs or symptoms; symptom severity; diagnoses based on ICD-10, DSM-IV, or the Chinese Classification of Mental Disorders (third edition) or psychometric scales; quality of life; and employment. Both the systematic review and the meta-analysis stratified outcomes across illness stages (acute vs post-illness) for SARS and MERS. We used a random-effects model for the meta-analysis, and the meta-analytical effect size was prevalence for relevant outcomes, I(2) statistics, and assessment of study quality. FINDINGS: 1963 studies and 87 preprints were identified by the systematic search, of which 65 peer-reviewed studies and seven preprints met inclusion criteria. The number of coronavirus cases of the included studies was 3559, ranging from 1 to 997, and the mean age of participants in studies ranged from 12·2 years (SD 4·1) to 68·0 years (single case report). Studies were from China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Canada, Saudi Arabia, France, Japan, Singapore, the UK, and the USA. Follow-up time for the post-illness studies varied between 60 days and 12 years. The systematic review revealed that during the acute illness, common symptoms among patients admitted to hospital for SARS or MERS included confusion (36 [27·9%; 95% CI 20·5–36·0] of 129 patients), depressed mood (42 [32·6%; 24·7–40·9] of 129), anxiety (46 [35·7%; 27·6–44·2] of 129), impaired memory (44 [34·1%; 26·2–42·5] of 129), and insomnia (54 [41·9%; 22·5–50·5] of 129). Steroid-induced mania and psychosis were reported in 13 (0·7%) of 1744 patients with SARS in the acute stage in one study. In the post-illness stage, depressed mood (35 [10·5%; 95% CI 7·5–14·1] of 332 patients), insomnia (34 [12·1%; 8·6–16·3] of 280), anxiety (21 [12·3%; 7·7–17·7] of 171), irritability (28 [12·8%; 8·7–17·6] of 218), memory impairment (44 [18·9%; 14·1–24·2] of 233), fatigue (61 [19·3%; 15·1–23·9] of 316), and in one study traumatic memories (55 [30·4%; 23·9–37·3] of 181) and sleep disorder (14 [100·0%; 88·0–100·0] of 14) were frequently reported. The meta-analysis indicated that in the post-illness stage the point prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder was 32·2% (95% CI 23·7–42·0; 121 of 402 cases from four studies), that of depression was 14·9% (12·1–18·2; 77 of 517 cases from five studies), and that of anxiety disorders was 14·8% (11·1–19·4; 42 of 284 cases from three studies). 446 (76·9%; 95% CI 68·1–84·6) of 580 patients from six studies had returned to work at a mean follow-up time of 35·3 months (SD 40·1). When data for patients with COVID-19 were examined (including preprint data), there was evidence for delirium (confusion in 26 [65%] of 40 intensive care unit patients and agitation in 40 [69%] of 58 intensive care unit patients in one study, and altered consciousness in 17 [21%] of 82 patients who subsequently died in another study). At discharge, 15 (33%) of 45 patients with COVID-19 who were assessed had a dysexecutive syndrome in one study. At the time of writing, there were two reports of hypoxic encephalopathy and one report of encephalitis. 68 (94%) of the 72 studies were of either low or medium quality. INTERPRETATION: If infection with SARS-CoV-2 follows a similar course to that with SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV, most patients should recover without experiencing mental illness. SARS-CoV-2 might cause delirium in a significant proportion of patients in the acute stage. Clinicians should be aware of the possibility of depression, anxiety, fatigue, post-traumatic stress disorder, and rarer neuropsychiatric syndromes in the longer term. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), UK Medical Research Council, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust and University College London.

negative: Population mortality during the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Toronto BACKGROUND: Extraordinary infection control measures limited access to medical care in the Greater Toronto Area during the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak. The objective of this study was to determine if the period of these infection control measures was associated with changes in overall population mortality due to causes other than SARS. METHODS: Observational study of death registry data, using Poisson regression and interrupted time-series analysis to examine all-cause mortality rates (excluding deaths due to SARS) before, during, and after the SARS outbreak. The population of Ontario was grouped into the Greater Toronto Area (N = 2.9 million) and the rest of Ontario (N = 9.3 million) based upon the level of restrictions on delivery of clinical services during the SARS outbreak. RESULTS: There was no significant change in mortality in the Greater Toronto Area before, during, and after the period of the SARS outbreak in 2003 compared to the corresponding time periods in 2002 and 2001. The rate ratio for all-cause mortality during the SARS outbreak was 0.99 [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.93–1.06] compared to 2002 and 0.96 [95% CI 0.90–1.03] compared to 2001. An interrupted time series analysis found no significant change in mortality rates in the Greater Toronto Area associated with the period of the SARS outbreak. CONCLUSION: Limitations on access to medical services during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto had no observable impact on short-term population mortality. Effects on morbidity and long-term mortality were not assessed. Efforts to contain future infectious disease outbreaks due to influenza or other agents must consider effects on access to essential health care services.

negative: Isolation, genomic characterization, and pathogenicity of a Chinese porcine deltacoronavirus strain CHN-HN-2014 Abstract Porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV) is an emerging swine coronavirus that causes diarrhea in piglets. Since the first outbreak of PDCoV in the United States in 2014, this novel porcine coronavirus has been detected in South Korea, Canada, Mexico, Thailand, and China. In this study, a Chinese PDCoV strain, designated CHN-HN-2014, was isolated from piglets with severe diarrhea on a pig farm in Henan Province, China, and examined with a specific immunofluorescence assay and electron microscopy. Genomic analysis showed that CHN-HN-2014 shares 91.6%–99.4% nucleotide identity with other known PDCoV strains. The pathogenicity of CHN-HN-2014 was further investigated in 5-day-old and 21-day-old piglets. Both kinds of piglets developed clear clinical symptoms, including vomiting, anorexia, lethargy, and severe diarrhea, by 2days postinoculation (DPI), and diarrhea persisted for about 5–6 days. Viral shedding was detected in rectal swabs until 14 DPI in challenged 5-day-old pigs and until 18 DPI in challenged 21-day-old pigs. At necropsy at 4 DPI, macroscopic and microscopic lesions were observed and viral antigen was detected in the small intestines with immunohistochemical staining. These data demonstrate that Chinese PDCoV strain CHN-HN-2014 shares high nucleotide identity with previously reported PDCoV strains and is pathogenic in 5-day-old and 21-day-old piglets.

negative: An Overview of the Most Significant Zoonotic Viral Pathogens Transmitted from Animal to Human in Saudi Arabia Currently, there has been an increasing socioeconomic impact of zoonotic pathogens transmitted from animals to humans worldwide. Recently, in the Arabian Peninsula, including in Saudi Arabia, epidemiological data indicated an actual increase in the number of emerging and/or reemerging cases of several viral zoonotic diseases. Data presented in this review are very relevant because Saudi Arabia is considered the largest country in the Peninsula. We believe that zoonotic pathogens in Saudi Arabia remain an important public health problem; however, more than 10 million Muslim pilgrims from around 184 Islamic countries arrive yearly at Makkah for the Hajj season and/or for the Umrah. Therefore, for health reasons, several countries recommend vaccinations for various zoonotic diseases among preventive protocols that should be complied with before traveling to Saudi Arabia. However, there is a shortage of epidemiological data focusing on the emerging and reemerging of zoonotic pathogens transmitted from animal to humans in different densely populated cities and/or localities in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, further efforts might be needed to control the increasing impacts of zoonotic viral disease. Also, there is a need for a high collaboration to enhance the detection and determination of the prevalence, diagnosis, control, and prevention as well as intervention and reduction in outbreaks of these diseases in Saudi Arabia, particularly those from other countries. Persons in the health field including physicians and veterinarians, pet owners, pet store owners, exporters, border guards, and people involved in businesses related to animal products have adopted various preventive strategies. Some of these measures might pave the way to highly successful prevention and control results on the different transmission routes of these viral zoonotic diseases from or to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the prevention of these viral pathogens depends on socioeconomic impacts, available data, improved diagnosis, and highly effective therapeutics or prophylaxis.

negative: Systematic analysis of global health research funding in Canada, 2000–2016 OBJECTIVES: Considering recent shifts in global funding landscapes, this study analyzes Canada’s long-term global health research funding trends in the hope of informing a new Canadian global health research strategy. Examining past investments can help prioritize limited future resources to either build on Canada’s existing strengths or fill gaps where needed, while simultaneously informing the investments of research funders in other countries. METHODS: Administrative data were analyzed covering all 1584 global health research grants awarded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) to 927 unique principal investigators from 2000 to 2016, totalling C$341 million. Existing metadata associated with each grant was supplemented by additional qualitative coding. Descriptive time-series analyses of global health research grant data were conducted using various measures related to each grant’s recipient (e.g., province, university, sex, distribution) and subject matter (e.g., research theme, area, focus). RESULTS: CIHR’s total annual global health research funding increased sharply from $3.6 million in FY2000/2001 to $30.3 million in FY2015/2016, with the largest share of research funding now focused on health equity—representing nearly 50% of CIHR’s global health research funding. Past grants have concentrated on infectious disease and public health research. One third of CIHR’s global health grant funding went to 20 principal investigators. Only 42.2% of global health research funding came from CIHR’s open investigator-driven competitions, with the rest coming from strategic priority-driven competitions. CONCLUSION: Global health research has seen steady increases in funding from CIHR’s open competitions when preceded by investment in strategic competitions, which suggests the level of a national research funding agency’s strategic investments in global health research may determine the size of the field in their country. The greatest concentration of past investment lies in health equity research, followed by infectious disease research. Future analyses of research funding would benefit from an internationally accepted keyword classification scheme and more granular administrative data. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.17269/s41997-019-00247-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: The importance of designing and implementing participatory surveillance system: An approach as early detection and prevention of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov)

negative: Pulmonary Pathology of Early-Phase 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia in Two Patients With Lung Cancer Abstract There is currently a lack of pathologic data on the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pneumonia, or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), from autopsy or biopsy. Two patients who recently underwent lung lobectomies for adenocarcinoma were retrospectively found to have had COVID-19 at the time of the operation. These two cases thus provide important first opportunities to study the pathology of COVID-19. Pathologic examinations revealed that apart from the tumors, the lungs of both patients exhibited edema, proteinaceous exudate, focal reactive hyperplasia of pneumocytes with patchy inflammatory cellular infiltration, and multinucleated giant cells. Hyaline membranes were not prominent. Because both patients did not exhibit symptoms of pneumonia at the time of operation, these changes likely represent an early phase of the lung pathology of COVID-19 pneumonia.

negative: COVID‐19 and the Canadian cattle/beef sector: Some preliminary analysis Canada's cattle/beef sector has already weathered a shock after a 2003 case of BSE resulted in closed borders and industry restructuring. Now the sector has to adjust to similar shocks due to COVID‐19. This paper examines the supply chain from the consumer up to the cow‐calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labour market constraints, and supply response. A quarterly market model of North American cattle and beef markets is used to examine price and revenue impacts associated with the market disruptions. Depending on the scenario, there is considerable price and revenue suppression at all levels of the market. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

negative: B-cell depleting therapies may affect susceptibility to acute respiratory illness among patients with Multiple Sclerosis during the early COVID-19 epidemic in Iran OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the course of COVID-19 is more severe in patients with MS and if MS disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) affect the risk of contracting the disease. METHODS: In a cross-sectional survey, data were collected by sending a questionnaire to 2000 patients with a demyelinating disease through an online portal system. Collected data included the current MS DMT and patient-reported disability level, history of recent sick contact, recent fever, respiratory symptoms, diagnosis with COVID-19 and the disposition after the diagnosis. We defined a COVID-19-suspect group as patients having fever and cough or fever and shortness of breath, or a presumptive diagnosis based on suggestive chest computed tomography. We calculated the proportion of COVID-19-suspect patients and compared their demographics, clinical characteristics, and DMT categories with the rest of survey-responders, using univariable and multivariable models. RESULTS: Out of 712 patients, 34 (4.8%) fulfilled our criteria for being in the COVID-19-suspect group. Only two patients required hospitalization. No patient required intensive care. In a multivariable model, disease duration (p-value=0.017), DMT category (p-value=0.030) and history of sick contact (p-values<0.001) were associated with the risk of being in the COVID-19-suspect group. Patients on B-cell depleting antibodies had 3.6 times higher risk of being in the COVID-19-suspect group as compared to patients on none-lymphocyte-depleting and non-cell trafficking inhibitor DMTs (95%CI: 1.45, 8.68, p-value=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The course of infection in MS patients suspected of having COVID-19 was mild to moderate, and all patients had a full recovery. B-cell depleting antibodies may increase the susceptibility to contracting COVID-19.

negative: SARS: screening, disease associations, and response

negative: Provision of cancer care during the COVID-19 pandemic Health-care services are rapidly transforming their organization and workforce in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. These changes, and a desire to mitigate infection risk, are having profound effects on other vital aspects of care, including the care of patients with cancer. Difficult decisions are being made regarding the prioritization of both active treatments and palliative care, despite limited evidence that cancer is an independent risk factor for infection and mortality.

negative: Severe Illnesses Associated With Outbreaks of Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Influenza in Adults BACKGROUND: Recent reports have described the contribution of adult respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections to the use of advanced healthcare resources and death. METHODS: Data regarding patients aged ≥18 years admitted to any of Maryland’s 50 acute-care hospitals were evaluated over 12 consecutive years (2001–2013). We examined RSV and influenza (flu) surveillance data from the US National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and used this information to define RSV and flu outbreak periods in the Maryland area. Outbreak periods consisted of consecutive individual weeks during which at least 10% of RSV and/or flu diagnostic tests were positive. We examined relationships of RSV and flu outbreaks to occurrence of 4 advanced medical outcomes (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, intubated mechanical ventilation, and death) due to medically attended acute respiratory illness (MAARI). RESULTS: Occurrences of all 4 MAARI-related hospital advanced medical outcomes were consistently greater for all adult ages during RSV, flu, and combined RSV–flu outbreak periods compared to nonoutbreak periods and tended to be greatest in adults aged ≥65 years during combined RSV–flu outbreak periods. Rate ratios for all 4 MAARI-related advanced medical outcomes ranged from 1.04 to 1.38 during the RSV, flu, or combined RSV–flu outbreaks compared to the nonoutbreak periods, with all 95% lower confidence limits >1. CONCLUSIONS: Both RSV and flu outbreaks were associated with surges in MAARI-related advanced medical outcomes (hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, intubated mechanical ventilation, and death) for adults of all ages.

negative: Recommendations and guidance for providing pharmaceutical care services during COVID-19 pandemic: A China perspective Abstract Background The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), which was first detected in Wuhan City, has now became a pandemic that affecting patients around the world. Particularly, the community patient population are at high risk of infection and are facing potential failure of proper medication use during the pandemic. Objective To discuss community pharmacists’ role and the content of pharmaceutical care (PC) during the novel coronavirus pandemic to promote effective prevention and control and safe drug use of the community patient population. Method Collect and summarize the experience Chinese community pharmacies gained from providing pharmacy services during the COVID-19 outbreak, and taking patients' PC needs into consideration, analyze and discuss the methods and strategies that community pharmacies and pharmacists shall use to provide PC during the pandemic. Results Community pharmacy management teams shall support PC services by providing adequate supply of COVID-19 related medications and preventative products, following environment regulations, and providing sufficient staff trainings. Pharmacists shall use various approaches to provide PC services in drug dispensing, consulting and referrals, chronic disease management, safe use of infusions, patient education, home care guidance and psychological support to promote the COVID-19 pandemic control and ensure safe medication use of community patients during the pandemic. Conclusion PC services in communities during the COVID-19 shall possess different properties due to disease characteristics and related change in patients' need. Community pharmacies shall work as a strong supporter of patient's medication and protective equipment supply. Community pharmacists shall be prepared to provide skilled and effective PC services for community patient population to ensure medication safety and promote the overall COVID-19 pandemic control.

negative: COVID-19 :Determinants of Hospitalization, ICU and Death among 20,293 reported cases in Portugal Introduction Determinants of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death are still unclear for Covid-19 and only a few studies have adjusted for confounding for different clinical outcomes including all reported cases in a country in the analysis. We used routine surveillance data from Portugal to identify risk factors for COVID-19 outcomes, in order to support risk stratification, clinical and public health interventions, and to improve scenarios to plan health care resources. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 20,293 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Portugal to 28 April 2020, electronically through the National Epidemic Surveillance System of the Directorate-General of Health(DGS). We calculated absolute risks, relative risks (RR) and adjusted relative risks (aRR) to identify demographic and clinical factors associated with hospitalization, admission to ICU and death using Poisson regressions. Results Increasing age after 60 years was the greatest determinant for all outcomes. Assuming 0-50 years as reference, being aged 80-89 years was the strongest determinant of hospital admission (aRR-5.7), 70-79 years for ICU(aRR-10.4) and >90 years for death(aRR-226.8) with an aRR of 112.7 in those 70-79 . Among comorbidites, Immunodeficiency, cardiac disease, kidney disease, and neurologic disease were independent risk factors for hospitalization (aRR 1.83, 1.79, 1.56, 1.82), for ICU these were cardiac, Immunodeficiency, kidney and lung disease (aRR 4.33, 2.76, 2.43, 2.04), and for death they were kidney, cardiac and chronic neurological disease (aRR: 2.9, 2.6, 2.0) Male gender was a risk factor for all outcomes. There were statistically significant differences for the 3 outcomes between regions. Discussion and Conclusions Older age stands out as the strongest risk factor for all outcomes specially for death as absolute is risk was small for those younger than 50. These findings have implications in terms of risk stratified public health measures that should prioritize protecting older people. Epidemiologic scenarios and clinical guidelines may consider the estimated risks, even though under-ascertainment of mild and asymptomatic cases should be considered in different age groups.

negative: Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Disease Threats

negative: Updates on Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic What emerged in December 2019 as a cluster of respiratory ailments with inexplicable etiological findings in Wuhan has now claimed roughly 259 lives, sickened nearly 12 thousand more, and spread to at least 26 more nations including Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

negative: Influenza and Endemic Viral Pneumonia Viruses are a common and important cause of severe community-acquired pneumonia, and may lead to severe respiratory disease and admission to the intensive care unit. Influenza is the most common virus associated with severe viral pneumonia, although other important causes include respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, metapneumonia virus, and coronaviruses. Viral pneumonias tend to have a seasonal predilection and are often preceded by a typical viral prodrome. This article focuses on severe influenza pneumonia, including the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, and briefly discusses other causes of severe respiratory disease of viral etiology.

negative: Isolation, sequence, infectivity and replication kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 SARS-CoV-2 emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and has since infected over 1.5 million people, of which over 107,000 have died. As SARS-CoV-2 spreads across the planet, speculations remain about the range of human cells that can be infected by SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we report the isolation of SARS-CoV-2 from two cases of COVID-19 in Toronto, Canada. We determined the genomic sequences of the two isolates and identified single nucleotide changes in representative populations of our virus stocks. More importantly, we tested a wide range of human immune cells for productive infection with SARS-CoV-2. Here we confirm that human primary peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) are not permissive for SARS-CoV-2. As SARS-CoV-2 continues to spread globally, it is essential to monitor single nucleotide polymorphisms in the virus and to continue to isolate circulating viruses to determine viral genotype and phenotype using in vitro and in vivo infection models.

negative: Forecasting the Impact of Coronavirus Disease During Delivery Hospitalization: An Aid for Resources Utilization Background: The ongoing Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has severely impacted the United States. In cases of infectious disease outbreak, forecasting models are often developed for resources utilization. Pregnancy and delivery pose unique challenges, given the altered maternal immune system and the fact that the majority of American women choose to deliver in the hospital setting. Objectives: The aim of our study is to forecast the incidence of COVID-19 in general population and to forecast the overall incidence, severe cases, critical cases and fatal COVID-19 cases during delivery hospitalization in the United States. Study design: We use a phenomenological model with generalized logistic growth models to forecast the incidence of COVID-19 in the United States from 4/15/2020 - 12/31/2020. Incidence data from 3/1/2020 - 4/14/2020 were used to provide best-fit model solution. Subsequently, Monte-Carlo simulation was performed for each week from 3/1/2020 - 12/31/2020 to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in delivery hospitalizations using the available data estimate. Results: From 3/1/2020 - 12/31/2020, our model forecasted a total of 860,475 cases of COVID-19 in general population across the United States. The cumulative incidence for COVID-19 during delivery hospitalization is anticipated to be 16,601 (95% CI, 9,711 - 23,491) cases. Among those, 3,308 (95% CI, 1,755 - 4,861) cases are expected to be severe, 681 (95% CI, 1324 - 1,038) critical and 52 (95% CI, 23 - 81) maternal mortality. Assuming similar baseline maternal mortality rate as the year of 2018, we projected an increase in maternal mortality rate in the US to at least 18.7 (95% CI, 18.0 - 19.5) deaths per 100,000 live birth as a direct result of COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 infection in pregnant women is expected to severely impact obstetrical care. From 3/1/2020 - 12/31/2020, we project 3,308 severe and 681 critical cases, with about 52 COVID-19 related maternal mortalities during delivery hospitalization in the United States. These data might be helpful for counseling and resource allocation.

negative: Efficacy of glutathione therapy in relieving dyspnea associated with COVID-19 pneumonia: A report of 2 cases PURPOSE: Infection with COVID-19 potentially can result in severe outcomes and death from “cytokine storm syndrome”, resulting in novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) with severe dyspnea, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), fulminant myocarditis and multiorgan dysfunction with or without disseminated intravascular coagulation. No published treatment to date has been shown to adequately control the inflammation and respiratory symptoms associated with COVID-19, apart from oxygen therapy and assisted ventilation. We evaluated the effects of using high dose oral and/or IV glutathione in the treatment of 2 patients with dyspnea secondary to COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: Two patients living in New York City (NYC) with a history of Lyme and tick-borne co-infections experienced a cough and dyspnea and demonstrated radiological findings consistent with novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). A trial of 2 g of PO or IV glutathione was used in both patients and improved their dyspnea within 1 h of use. Repeated use of both 2000 mg of PO and IV glutathione was effective in further relieving respiratory symptoms. CONCLUSION: Oral and IV glutathione, glutathione precursors (N-acetyl-cysteine) and alpha lipoic acid may represent a novel treatment approach for blocking NF-κB and addressing “cytokine storm syndrome” and respiratory distress in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

negative: Disseminated Bocavirus Infection after Stem Cell Transplant

negative: The COVID‐19 Pandemic: Anticipating its Effects on Canada's Agricultural Trade With the deep recession now forecast for the world economy, trade can be expected to fall even more steeply. Agricultural trade will be less significantly affected, being insulated by its relatively low income elasticities of demand. However, a drop in the range of 12 to 20 percent in real trade value should be expected. Canada can be expected to share in this, but, within agricultural exports, cereals will be least affected. This minimal expected impact to cereals stems from the risk of wheat export bans by Russia and Kazakhstan, due to the resulting increase in wheat prices. Livestock, pulses, and horticulture can be expected to face a larger decline in trade prospects and revenues. An equally large threat to falling incomes in our trade partners is their policy responses, particularly the potential increase in import restrictions. These may take the form of more costly inspections, tightened SPS and food safety regulations, and protectionist measures from competing domestic producers. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

negative: Feline infectious peritonitis-like coronavirus in ferrets

negative: Coordinated Response to SARS, Vancouver, Canada Two Canadian urban areas received travelers with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) before the World Health Organization issued its alert. By July 2003, Vancouver had identified 5 cases (4 imported); Toronto reported 247 cases (3 imported) and 43 deaths. Baseline preparedness for pandemic threats may account for the absence of sustained transmission and fewer cases of SARS in Vancouver.

negative: Properties of a coronavirus isolated from a cow with epizootic diarrhea Abstract A coronavirus (Kakegawa isolate) isolated from a cow with epizootic diarrhea was grown in BEK-1 cells and examined for biophysical and biochemical properties. The Kakegawa isolate was able to replicate in the presence or absence of 5-iodo-2′-deoxy-uridine, indicating that its viral nucleic acid was RNA. It was highly sensitive to ether and chloroform, and moderately sensitive to trypsin and heat. It was, however, readily stabilized by treatment with cation at 50°C for 1 h. Its infectivity was slightly reduced at pH 3.0. The virus passed through a membrane filter of 200 nm pore size, but not through one of 100 nm pore size. The buoyant density of the virus was determined in a sucrose density gradient. The peak of infectivity and hemagglutinin activity was found at a density of 1.182. Neutralization and hemagglutination inhibition tests showed a close serological relationship between the Kakegawa isolate and the American strain of calf diarrhea coronavirus.

negative: Porcine teschovirus polioencephalomyelitis in western Canada. Beginning in 2002, a small number of pig farms in western Canada began reporting 4-7-week-old pigs with bilateral hind-end paresis or paralysis. Low numbers of pigs were affected, some died, most had to be euthanized, and those that survived had reduced weight gains and neurological deficits. Necropsies revealed no gross lesions, but microscopic lesions consisted of a nonsuppurative polioencephalomyelitis, most severe in the brain stem and spinal cord. The lesions were most consistent with a viral infection. Tests for circovirus, Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, coronavirus, Rabies virus, and Pseudorabies virus were negative. Using immunohistochemistry, virus neutralization, fluorescent antibody test, and nested reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction, Porcine teschovirus was identified in tissues from affected individuals. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first report of teschovirus encephalitis in western Canada and the first reported case of polioencephalomyelitis in pigs in Canada, where teschovirus was confirmed as the cause.

negative: The OncoSim-Breast cancer microsimulation model Background: The increasing demand for health care resources requires measures to evaluate the impact of cancer control approaches. A cancer simulation model can help integrate new knowledge to inform clinical and policy decisions. OncoSim-Breast is a breast cancer simulation model. This paper aims to describe the key assumptions in the OncoSim-Breast model and how well it reproduces more recent breast cancer trends and the observed effects in a randomized screening trial. Methods: The OncoSim-Breast model simulates the onset, growth and spread of invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ tumours. The model combines Canadian cancer incidence, mortality, screening program and cost data to project population-level outcomes. Users can change the model input to answer specific policy questions. Here we report three validation exercises. First, we compared the model's projected breast cancer incidence and stage distributions with the observed data in the Canadian Cancer Registry. Second, we compared OncoSim's projected breast cancer mortality with Vital Statistics. Third, we replicated the UK Age trial to compare the model's projections with the trial's observed screening effects. Results: OncoSim-Breast's projected incidence, mortality and stage distribution of breast cancer were close to the observed data in the Canadian Cancer Registry and the Vital Statistics. OncoSim-Breast also reproduced the breast cancer screening effects observed in the UK Age trial. Interpretation: OncoSim-Breast's ability to reproduce the observed population-level breast cancer trends and the screening effects in a randomized trial increases the confidence of using its results to inform policy decisions related to early detection of breast cancer.

negative: End-of-life care in patients with a highly transmissible respiratory virus: implications for COVID-19 Symptom management and end-of-life care are core skills for all physicians, although in ordinary times many anesthesiologists have fewer occasions to use these skills. The current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has caused significant mortality over a short time and has necessitated an increase in provision of both critical care and palliative care. For anesthesiologists deployed to units caring for patients with COVID-19, this narrative review provides guidance on conducting goals of care discussions, withdrawing life-sustaining measures, and managing distressing symptoms.

negative: Using core competencies to build an evaluative framework: outcome assessment of the University of Guelph Master of Public Health program BACKGROUND: Master of Public Health programs have been developed across Canada in response to the need for graduate-level trained professionals to work in the public health sector. The University of Guelph recently conducted a five-year outcome assessment using the Core Competencies for Public Health in Canada as an evaluative framework to determine whether graduates are receiving adequate training, and identify areas for improvement. METHODS: A curriculum map of core courses and an online survey of University of Guelph Master of Public Health graduates comprised the outcome assessment. The curriculum map was constructed by evaluating course outlines, assignments, and content to determine the extent to which the Core Competencies were covered in each course. Quantitative survey results were characterized using descriptive statistics. Qualitative survey results were analyzed to identify common themes and patterns in open-ended responses. RESULTS: The University of Guelph Master of Public Health program provided a positive learning environment in which graduates gained proficiency across the Core Competencies through core and elective courses, meaningful practicums, and competent faculty. Practice-based learning environments, particularly in collaboration with public health organizations, were deemed to be beneficial to students’ learning experiences. CONCLUSIONS: The Core Competencies and graduate surveys can be used to conduct a meaningful and informative outcome assessment. We encourage other Master of Public Health programs to conduct their own outcome assessments using a similar framework, and disseminate these results in order to identify best practices and strengthen the Canadian graduate public health education system.

negative: Beyond Deaths per Capita: Three CoViD-19 Mortality Indicators for Temporal and International Comparisons CoViD-19 deaths to population size ratios fail to account for well-documented age and sex differences in CoViD-19 mortality. To assess trends across populations for which CoViD-19 deaths might not be available by age and sex, an indirect age-and-sex adjustment can still be performed. The corresponding Comparative CoViD-19 Mortality Ratio (CCMR) only requires population age and sex compositions. To compare CoViD-19 and overall mortality levels, the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and life expectancy at birth for recent calendar years are the most widely available overall mortality indicators. Readily comparable to an annual CDR, a Crude CoViD-19 Death Rate (CCDR) can be calculated for periods of any duration. CoViD-19-induced declines in projected life expectancy at birth for 2020 can also be calculated from existing life tables. We calculate the CCMR and CCDR for the period from their first CoViD-19 death to the present using US age and sex data and current estimates of CoViD-19 deaths in 166 Countries whose population composition is available from the UN, 28 Provinces in China, the 50 United States and DC. Across these 245 populations, 14 States and 11 Countries have CCMR values above 1—the US value by construction. Most affected to date, the period CCDR in New York exceeds its CDR for the most recent year available (7.83 per thousand in 2017). We also calculate CCMR and CCDR values corresponding to projections for the 50 States and DC, and for 49 countries, for which we can additionally calculate reductions in 2020 life expectancy at birth using UN life tables. This suggests life-expectancy reductions between .5 and 1 year for 7 European Countries, 3 South-American Countries and the US. The .55 reduction in the U.S. amounts to nearly twice the largest single-year decline induced by HIV/AIDS (−.3 between 1992 and 1993) or the total decline induced by opioid overdoses (also −.3 between 2014 and 2017), and would bring US life expectancy at birth down to its lowest level since 2008. As current CoViD-19 death counts likely underestimate the total increase in deaths and current projections do not account for possible new infection waves later this year, the impact on 2020 life expectancies at birth should be expected to exceed these figures.

negative: Liver injury in COVID-19: management and challenges

negative: High mortality in COVID-19 patients with mild respiratory disease INTRODUCTION: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has infected 189 000 people in Italy, with more than 25 000 deaths. Several predictive factors of mortality have been identified; however, none has been validated in patients presenting with mild disease. METHODS: Patients with a diagnosis of interstitial pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2, presenting with mild symptoms, and requiring hospitalization in a non-intensive care unit with known discharge status were prospectively collected and retrospectively analysed. Demographical, clinical and biochemical parameters were recorded, as need for non-invasive mechanical ventilation and admission in intensive care unit. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of death. RESULTS: Between 28 February and 10 April 2020, 229 consecutive patients were included in the study cohort; the majority were males with a mean age of 60 years. 54% of patients had at least one comorbidity, with hypertension being the most commonly represented, followed by diabetes mellitus. 196 patients were discharged after a mean of 9 days, while 14.4% died during hospitalization because of respiratory failure. Age higher than 75 years, low platelet count (<150 × 103 /mm3 ) and higher ferritin levels (>750 ng/mL) were independent predictors of death. Comorbidities were not independently associated with in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 presenting with mild symptoms is high and is associated with older age, platelet count and ferritin levels. Identifying early predictors of outcome can be useful in the clinical practice to better stratify and manage patients with COVID-19.

negative: On-farm biosecurity practices and causes of preweaning mortality in Canadian commercial mink kits BACKGROUND: Mink are an important animal commodity group in Canada and excessive kit mortality represents a significant loss to production. National biosecurity standards have been developed for Canadian mink farms, but it is unclear how well these standards have been implemented as there are no studies correlating management practices of mink producers with causes of death in mink kits. To that end, we surveyed Ontario mink producers on their biosecurity and management practices and conducted almost 5660 post mortem examinations on found-dead, preweaned kits to characterize mink farm biosecurity practices and causes of death in preweaned kits. RESULTS: We found that very few biosecurity and management practices were uniformly used by producers, despite good awareness of appropriate practices. Use of personal protective equipment was implemented by fewer than 50% of respondents, while control of mink shed access, disinfection of feed containers after use, and use of a rodent control program were the only practices implemented by greater than 70% of respondents. Only 18% of producers reported regular use of antimicrobials in feed or water, although 91% stated they used antimicrobials for treatment of bacterial diseases on a regular basis. On post mortem examination, no gross abnormalities were noted in 71% of the kits, 45% were thought to be stillborn or aborted, 27% had some form of abnormal fluid distribution in the body, and 2% had a congenital malformation. A subset of 69 gastrointestinal tract samples was submitted for bacterial culture, of which 45 samples yielded sufficient growth. Most interesting was the identification of Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in 11% of samples. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study will provide a benchmark for Canadian mink producers and their veterinarians, defining the areas to which greater attention should be given to ensure more rigorous biosecurity practices are in place. Ultimately, these improvements in practices may contribute to increased mink production and animal well-being. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13028-017-0326-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: On epidemic modeling in real time: An application to the 2009 Novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada BACKGROUND: Management of emerging infectious diseases such as the 2009 influenza pandemic A (H1N1) poses great challenges for real-time mathematical modeling of disease transmission due to limited information on disease natural history and epidemiology, stochastic variation in the course of epidemics, and changing case definitions and surveillance practices. FINDINGS: The Richards model and its variants are used to fit the cumulative epidemic curve for laboratory-confirmed pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) infections in Canada, made available by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). The model is used to obtain estimates for turning points in the initial outbreak, the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and for expected final outbreak size in the absence of interventions. Confirmed case data were used to construct a best-fit 2-phase model with three turning points. R(0 )was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.47) for the first phase (April 1 to May 4) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.16-1.54) for the second phase (May 4 to June 19). Hospitalization data were also used to fit a 1-phase model with R(0 )= 1.35 (1.20-1.49) and a single turning point of June 11. CONCLUSIONS: Application of the Richards model to Canadian pH1N1 data shows that detection of turning points is affected by the quality of data available at the time of data usage. Using a Richards model, robust estimates of R(0 )were obtained approximately one month after the initial outbreak in the case of 2009 A (H1N1) in Canada.

negative: “The storm has arrived”: the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on medical students In a few weeks, the global community has witnessed, and for some of us experienced first-hand, the human costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is incredible variability in how countries are choosing to thwart the disease’s outbreak, sparking intense discussions around what it means to teach and learn in the era of COVID-19, and more specifically, the role medical students play in the midst of the pandemic. A multi-national and multi-institutional group made up of a dedicated medical student from Austria, passionate clinicians and educators from Switzerland, and a PhD scientist involved in Medical Education from Canada, have assembled to summarize the ingenious ways medical students around the world are contributing to emergency efforts. They argue that such efforts change COVID-19 from a “disruption” to medical students learning to something more tangible, more important, allowing students to become stakeholders in the expansion and delivery of healthcare.

negative: The Management of Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Infants and Children Older Than 3 Months of Age: Clinical Practice Guidelines by the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society and the Infectious Diseases Society of America Evidenced-based guidelines for management of infants and children with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) were prepared by an expert panel comprising clinicians and investigators representing community pediatrics, public health, and the pediatric specialties of critical care, emergency medicine, hospital medicine, infectious diseases, pulmonology, and surgery. These guidelines are intended for use by primary care and subspecialty providers responsible for the management of otherwise healthy infants and children with CAP in both outpatient and inpatient settings. Site-of-care management, diagnosis, antimicrobial and adjunctive surgical therapy, and prevention are discussed. Areas that warrant future investigations are also highlighted.

negative: Screening of COVID-19 in children admitted to the hospital for acute problems: preliminary data BACKGROUND: The new Coronavirus identified in Whuan at the end of 2019 (SARS-CoV-2) belongs to the Beta Coronavirus genus and is responsible for the new Coronavirus 2019 pandemia (COVID-19). Infected children may be asymptomatic or present fever, dry cough, fatigue or gastrointestinal symptoms. The CDC recommends that clinicians should decide to test patients based on the presence of signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19. MATERIAL AND METHODS: 42 children (the majority < 5 years of age) were referred, to our Pediatric Department, as possible cases of COVID-19 infection. Blood analysis, chest X-ray, and naso-oropharyngeal swab specimens for viral identification of COVID-19 were requested. RESULTS: None of the screened children resulted positive for COVID-19 infection. At first presentation, the most frequent signs and symptoms were: fever (71.4%), fatigue (35.7%) and cough (30.9%). An high C-reactive protein value and abnormalities of chest X-ray (bronchial wall thickening) were detected in 26.2% and 19% of patients, respectively. Almost half of patients (45.2%) required hospitalization in our Pediatric Unit and one patient in Intensive Care Unit. CONCLUSIONS: Testing people who meet the COVID-19 suspected case definition criteria is essential for clinical management and outbreak control. Children of all ages can get COVID-19, although they appear to be affected less frequently than adults, as reported in our preliminary survey. Further studies are needed to confirm our observations.

negative: The emergence of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) On September 20, 2012, a Saudi Arabian physician reported the isolation of a novel coronavirus from a patient with pneumonia on ProMED-mail. Within a few days the same virus was detected in a Qatari patient receiving intensive care in a London hospital, a situation reminiscent of the role air travel played in the spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2002. SARS-CoV originated in China’s Guangdong Province and affected more than 8000 patients in 26 countries before it was contained six months later. Over a year after the emergence of this novel coronavirus—Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)—it has caused 178 laboratory confirmed cases and 76 deaths The emergence of a second highly pathogenic coronavirus within a decade highlights the importance of a coordinated global response incorporating reservoir surveillance, high-containment capacity with fundamental and applied research programs, and dependable communication pathways to ensure outbreak containment. Here we review the current state of knowledge on the epidemiology, ecology, molecular biology, clinical features and intervention strategies of the novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV.

negative: COVID-19: Strategies for Allocation of Test Kits With the increasing spread of COVID-19, it is important to systematically test more and more people. The current strategy for test-kit allocation is mostly rule-based, focusing on individuals having (a) symptoms for COVID-19, (b) travel history or (c) contact history with confirmed COVID-19 patients. Such testing strategy may miss out on detecting asymptomatic individuals who got infected via community spread. Thus, it is important to allocate a separate budget of test-kits per day targeted towards preventing community spread and detecting new cases early on. In this report, we consider the problem of allocating test-kits and discuss some solution approaches. We believe that these approaches will be useful to contain community spread and detect new cases early on. Additionally, these approaches would help in collecting unbiased data which can then be used to improve the accuracy of machine learning models trained to predict COVID-19 infections.

negative: Asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): Facts and myths Abstract Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (formerly known as the 2019 novel coronavirus [2019-nCoV]) in Wuhan, China in December 2019, which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), more than 75,000 cases have been reported in 32 countries/regions, resulting in more than 2000 deaths worldwide. Despite the fact that most COVID-19 cases and mortalities were reported in China, the WHO has declared this outbreak as the sixth public health emergency of international concern. The COVID-19 can present as an asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia. Adults represent the population with the highest infection rate; however, neonates, children, and elderly patients can also be infected by SARS-CoV-2. In addition, nosocomial infection of hospitalized patients and healthcare workers, and viral transmission from asymptomatic carriers are possible. The most common finding on chest imaging among patients with pneumonia was ground-glass opacity with bilateral involvement. Severe cases are more likely to be older patients with underlying comorbidities compared to mild cases. Indeed, age and disease severity may be correlated with the outcomes of COVID-19. To date, effective treatment is lacking; however, clinical trials investigating the efficacy of several agents, including remdesivir and chloroquine, are underway in China. Currently, effective infection control intervention is the only way to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

negative: Effectiveness and safety of antiviral or antibody treatments for coronavirus: A rapid review Background: To identify safe and effective medical countermeasures (e.g., antivirals/antibodies) to address the current outbreak of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) Methods: Comprehensive literature searches were developed by an experienced librarian for MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and biorxiv.org/medrxiv.org; additional searches for ongoing trials and unpublished studies were conducted in clinicaltrials.gov and the Global Infectious Diseases and Epidemiology Network (GIDEON). Title/abstract and full-text screening, data abstraction, and risk of bias appraisal were carried out by single reviewers. Results: 54 studies were included in the review: three controlled trials, 10 cohort studies, seven retrospective medical record/database studies, and 34 case reports or series. These studies included patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARs, n=33), middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS, n=16), COVID-19 (n=3), and unspecified coronavirus (n=2). The most common treatment was ribavirin (n=41), followed by oseltamivir (n=10) and the combination of lopinavir/ritonavir (n=7). Additional therapies included broad spectrum antibiotics (n=30), steroids (n=39) or various interferons (n=12). No eligible studies examining monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 were identified. One trial found that ribavirin prophylactic treatment statistically significantly reduced risk of MERS infection in people who had been exposed to the virus. Of the 21 studies reporting rates of ICU admission in hospitalized SARS or MERS patients, none reported statistically significant results in favour of or against antiviral therapies. Of the 40 studies reporting mortality rates in hospitalized SARS or MERS patients, one cohort study (MERS) and one retrospective study (SARS) found a statistically significant increase in the mortality rate for patients treated with ribavirin. Eighteen studies reported potential drug-related adverse effects including gastrointestinal symptoms, anemia, and altered liver function in patients receiving ribavirin. Conclusion: The current evidence for the effectiveness and safety of antiviral therapies for coronavirus is inconclusive and suffers from a lack of well-designed prospective trials or observational studies, preventing any treatment recommendations from being made. However, it is clear that the existing body of evidence is weighted heavily towards ribavirin (41/54 studies), which has not shown conclusive evidence of effectiveness and may cause harmful adverse events so future investigations may consider focusing on other candidates for antiviral therapy.

negative: Effects of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on Maternal, Perinatal and Neonatal Outcomes: a Systematic Review of 266 Pregnancies Objective: To perform a systematic review of available published literature on pregnancies affected by COVID-19 to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on maternal, perinatal and neonatal outcomes. Methods: We performed a systematic review to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 on pregnancy, perinatal and neonatal outcomes. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane library, China National Knowledge Infrastructure Database and Wan Fang Data until April 20, 2020 (studies were identified through PubMed alert after April 20, 2020). For the research strategy, combinations of the following keywords and MeSH terms were used: SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019, pregnancy, gestation, maternal, mothers, vertical transmission, maternal-fetal transmission, intrauterine transmission, neonates, infant, delivery. Eligibility criteria included laboratory-confirmed and/or clinically diagnosed COVID-19, patient was pregnant on admission, availability of clinical characteristics, including maternal, perinatal or neonatal outcomes. Exclusion criteria were unpublished reports, unspecified date and location of the study or suspicion of duplicate reporting, and unreported maternal or perinatal outcomes. No language restrictions were applied. Results: We identified several case-reports and case-series but only 19 studies, including a total of 266 pregnant women with COVID-19, met eligibility criteria and were finally included in the review. In the combined data from seven case-series, the maternal age ranged from 20 to 41 years and the gestational age on admission ranged from 5 to 41 weeks. The most common symptoms at presentation were fever, cough, dyspnea/shortness of breath and fatigue. The rate of severe pneumonia was relatively low, with the majority of the cases requiring intensive care unit admission. Almost all cases from the case-series had positive computer tomography chest findings. There were six and 22 cases that had nucleic-acid testing in vaginal mucus and breast milk samples, respectively, which were negative for SARS-CoV-2. Only a few cases had spontaneous miscarriage or abortion. 177 cases had delivered, of which the majority by Cesarean section. The gestational age at delivery ranged from 28 to 41 weeks. Apgar scores at 1 and 5 minutes ranged from 7 to 10 and 8 to 10, respectively. A few neonates had birthweight less than 2500 grams and over one-third of cases were transferred to neonatal intensive care unit. There was one case each of neonatal asphyxia and neonatal death. There were 113 neonates that had nucleic-acid testing in throat swab, which was negative for SARS-CoV-2. From the case-reports, two maternal deaths among pregnant women with COVID-19 were reported. Conclusions: The clinical characteristics of pregnant women with COVID-19 are similar to those of nonpregnant adults with COVID-19. Currently, there is no evidence that pregnant women with COVID-19 are more prone to develop severe pneumonia, in comparison to nonpregnant patients. The subject of vertical transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remains controversial and more data is needed to investigate this possibility. Most importantly, in order to collect meaningful pregnancy and perinatal outcome data, we urge researchers and investigators to reference previously published cases in their publications and to record such reporting when the data of a case is being entered into a registry or several registries.

negative: Prediction for the spread of COVID-19 in India and effectiveness of preventive measures Abstract The spread of COVID-19 in the whole world has put the humanity at risk. The resources of some of the largest economies are stressed out due to the large infectivity and transmissibility of this disease. Due to the growing magnitude of number of cases and its subsequent stress on the administration and health professionals, some prediction methods would be required to predict the number of cases in future. In this paper, we have used data-driven estimation methods like long short-term memory (LSTM) and curve fitting for prediction of the number of COVID-19 cases in India 30 days ahead and effect of preventive measures like social isolation and lockdown on the spread of COVID-19. The prediction of various parameters (number of positive cases, number of recovered cases, etc.) obtained by the proposed method is accurate within a certain range and will be a beneficial tool for administrators and health officials.

negative: Cross‐species transmission of the newly identified coronavirus 2019‐nCoV The current outbreak of viral pneumonia in the city of Wuhan, China, was caused by a novel coronavirus designated 2019‐nCoV by the World Health Organization, as determined by sequencing the viral RNA genome. Many initial patients were exposed to wildlife animals at the Huanan seafood wholesale market, where poultry, snake, bats, and other farm animals were also sold. To investigate possible virus reservoir, we have carried out comprehensive sequence analysis and comparison in conjunction with relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) bias among different animal species based on the 2019‐nCoV sequence. Results obtained from our analyses suggest that the 2019‐nCoV may appear to be a recombinant virus between the bat coronavirus and an origin‐unknown coronavirus. The recombination may occurred within the viral spike glycoprotein, which recognizes a cell surface receptor. Additionally, our findings suggest that 2019‐nCoV has most similar genetic information with bat coronovirus and most similar codon usage bias with snake. Taken together, our results suggest that homologous recombination may occur and contribute to the 2019‐nCoV cross‐species transmission.

negative: Teicoplanin potently blocks the cell entry of 2019-nCoV Since December 2019, the outbreak of a new coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, has greatly threatened the public health in China and raised great concerns worldwide. No specific treatment for this infection is currently available. We previously reported that teicoplanin, a glycopeptide antibiotic which has routinely been used in the clinic to treat bacterial infection with low toxicity, significantly inhibits the invasion of cells by Ebola virus, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, via specifically inhibiting the activity of cathepsin L. Here, we tested the efficacy of teicoplanin against 2019-nCoV virus infection and found that teicoplanin potently prevents the entrance of 2019-nCoV-Spike-pseudoviruses into the cytoplasm, with an IC50 of 1.66 μM. Although the inhibitory effect upon the replication of wildtype viruses ex vivo and in vivo remains to be determined, our preliminary result indicates that the potential antiviral activity of teicoplanin could be applied for the treatment of 2019-nCoV virus infection.

negative: Q&A: The novel coronavirus outbreak causing COVID-19

negative: Potential association between COVID-19 mortality and health-care resource availability

negative: Staff perception and institutional reporting: two views of infection control compliance in British Columbia and Ontario three years after an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome Summary Few studies have audited the resources available to infection control (IC) and occupational health (OH) to promote safe work behaviour, whilst comparing audited findings with perceptions by healthcare workers (HCWs). We aimed to determine the IC and OH resources available and compare this with HCWs' perception of resources, following an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). A survey of IC and OH resources and a questionnaire completed by HCWs were compared with on-site observational audits. HCWs believed that plans were available to protect against future SARS-like events but audits revealed that these did not exist in many facilities. Both OH and IC were under-resourced post-SARS, with OH professionals particularly lacking in British Columbia. There is a discrepancy between HCWs' perception of what is available and what is actually accessible in facilities. Experts in IC and OH need to focus on communication.

negative: The Unaddressed Behavioral Health Aspect During the Coronavirus Pandemic The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia has been declared a pandemic, citing more than 118,000 cases of the coronavirus illness in more than 110 countries and territories around the world. Public health emergencies have been demonstrated to have an impact on the behavioral health of the affected population as they may experience fear, anxiety, anger and post-traumatic stress disorder as consequences of their experiences. These effects may persist among affected individuals long after the outbreak has been controlled. To date, data on the behavioral distress and psychiatric morbidity of those suspected or diagnosed with the 2019-nCoV and their treating health professionals are lacking. Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has outlined some behavioral health guide for affected individuals, how best to respond to psychological challenges during the crisis is not known. There is an urgent need to provide robust and timely psychosocial support in the face of such an outbreak.

negative: Hospital accreditation and the surgeon: The Canadian experience Accreditation is an internationally recognised process through which healthcare organisations are able to improve the safety and quality of services delivered to patients. The focus of accreditation is to help organisations understand what they are doing well and what opportunities are available for improvement. The Canadian approach to accreditation is a rigorous peer review process comprised of a self-assessment against a set of standards, an on-site survey and follow-up action on recommendations that arise from the survey. The accreditation standards can be used effectively to guide the surgical teams in the transformation of the specialty. The 17 standards that are used to evaluate surgical teams relate to the activities that represent the continuum of clinical care as well as aspects related to learning. Within the subsections and standards are opportunities for surgeons and surgical teams to use the standards to effectively deliver services and to continuously improve patient care. In 38 recent Canadian Accreditation AIM surveys, that included at least one surgical team, there were a total of 75 recommendations made to the teams. Most recommendations related to process as opposed to outcome issues, implying that surgeons need to become more proactive in the functioning of the surgical team and to participate more effectively in management issues related to surgical care. Attention to these details will position surgical programmes to effectively deal with the rapid pace of change that is inherent in a modern surgical practice

negative: Pandemic planning in pediatric care: A website policy review and national survey data Abstract Objectives This study investigates current policies, key issues, and needs for pandemic planning in pediatrics in Canada. Methods Online pandemic plans from national, provincial and territorial government websites were reviewed to identify: plans for children and families, and psychosocial and ethical issues. A survey was administered to gather participants’ perspectives on the needs in pediatric planning, as well as important elements of their organizations’ and regions’ pandemic plans. A thematic analysis was conducted on qualitative survey responses. Results The majority of existing plans did not adequately address the unique needs of pediatric populations, and mainly focused on medical and policy concerns. Several gaps in plans were identified, including the need for psychosocial supports and ethical decision-making frameworks for children and families. Similarly, survey respondents identified parallel gaps, in their organization's or region's plans. Conclusions Although many plans provide guidelines for medical and policy issues in pediatrics, much more work remains in psychosocial and ethical planning. A focus on children and families is needed for pandemic planning in pediatrics to ensure best outcomes for children and families.

negative: The impact of social amplification and attenuation of risk and the public reaction to mad cow disease in Canada. Following the detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Canada, and subsequently in the United States, confidence in the safety of beef products remained high. Consumers actually increased their consumption of beef slightly after the news of an increased risk from mad cow disease, which has been interpreted as public support for beef farmers and confidence in government regulators. The Canadian public showed a markedly different reaction to the news of domestic BSE than the furious and panicked responses observed in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Japan. Using the social amplification of risk framework, we show that, while other countries displayed social amplification of risk, Canada experienced a social attenuation of risk. The attenuated reaction in Canada toward mad cow disease and increased human health risks from variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) was due to the social context at the time when BSE was discovered domestically. Mortality, morbidity, and psychosocial impacts resulting from other major events such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), West Nile virus (WNV), and the U.S.-Iraq war made the theoretical risks of BSE and vCJD a lower priority, reducing its concern as a risk issue.

negative: The COVID-19 Pandemic and Implications for Gynaecologic Cancer Care PURPOSE: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on world healthcare system and economy is unprecedented. Currently routine surgical procedures are at a halt globally, but whether one can delay cancer procedures remains an ethical issue, and still there is no clarity on how women with gynaecological cancers should be managed in these critical times. METHODS: Currently available literature on impact of COVID-19 on cancer was reviewed with special reference to its applicability to the Indian context. RESULTS: Cancer cases are more susceptible for COVID-19 infection and rapid deterioration if they get infected. A tumour board should plan their management with a “do no harm” approach as the guiding principle. Teleconsultation may be used to advise patients for therapy and symptom control measures, as well as to advise new patients regarding diagnostic tests. Surgical decision making may be stratified into three categories: patients with low (not life threatening) or intermediate (potential for future morbidity or mortality) acuity may be delayed; those with high acuity may be taken up for planned therapy after explaining the risks. Assessment of the severity of disease, comorbid conditions, and logistic challenges, along with COVID census in their area are important variables for informed and individualized decision making. Safety of healthcare personnel needs to be ensured at the same time. CONCLUSION: Currently available evidence is limited by small sample size, and full impact of this pandemic on cancer is yet to be seen. However, cancer care needs to be individualized taking all variables into consideration.

negative: The COVID-19 outbreak and Google searches: Is it really the time to worry about global mental health?

negative: Estimating the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China OBJECTIVE: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has been basically controlled. However, the global epidemic of COVID-19 is worsening. We established a method to estimate the instant case fatality rate (CFR) and cure rate of COVID-19 in China. METHODS: A total of 82 735 confirmed cases released officially by the Chinese authorities from December 8, 2019 to April 18, 2020 were collected. The estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were calculated based on the median cure time or median death time of individual cases. Following this, the instant CFR was calculated according to the number of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis date. RESULTS: In China, the instant CFR of COVID-19 was 3.8-14.6% from January 1 to January 17; it then declined gradually and stabilized at 5.7% in April. The average CFR in China was 6.1±2.9%, while the CFR was 1.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province. The cure rate of COVID-19 was 93.9±2.9% in China, and stabilized at 94.3%, while it was 99.0±0.4% in China except Hubei Province. CONCLUSIONS: The instant CFR of COVID-19 in China overall was much higher than that in China except Hubei Province. The CFR of COVID-19 in China was underestimated.

negative: How long will social distancing take to work? Experts weigh in on Canada's COVID-19 response

negative: Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France France has been heavily affected by the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and went into lockdown on the 17th March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find 2.6% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.53% die, ranging from 0.001% in those <20y to 8.3% in those >80y. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 3.3 to 0.5 (84% reduction). By 11 May, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project 3.7 million (range: 2.3-6.7) people, 5.7% of the population, will have been infected. Population immunity appears insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

negative: Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of severe coronavirus disease 2019 in California and Washington: prospective cohort study OBJECTIVE: To understand the epidemiology and burden of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) during the first epidemic wave on the west coast of the United States. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Kaiser Permanente integrated healthcare delivery systems serving populations in northern California, southern California, and Washington state. PARTICIPANTS: 1840 people with a first acute hospital admission for confirmed covid-19 by 22 April 2020, among 9 596 321 healthcare plan enrollees. Analyses of hospital length of stay and clinical outcomes included 1328 people admitted by 9 April 2020 (534 in northern California, 711 in southern California, and 83 in Washington). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cumulative incidence of first acute hospital admission for confirmed covid-19, and subsequent probabilities of admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality, as well as duration of hospital stay and ICU stay. The effective reproduction number (R(E)) describing transmission dynamics was estimated for each region. RESULTS: As of 22 April 2020, cumulative incidences of a first acute hospital admission for covid-19 were 15.6 per 100 000 cohort members in northern California, 23.3 per 100 000 in southern California, and 14.7 per 100 000 in Washington. Accounting for censoring of incomplete hospital stays among those admitted by 9 April 2020, the estimated median duration of stay among survivors was 9.3 days (with 95% staying 0.8 to 32.9 days) and among non-survivors was 12.7 days (1.6 to 37.7 days). The censoring adjusted probability of ICU admission for male patients was 48.5% (95% confidence interval 41.8% to 56.3%) and for female patients was 32.0% (26.6% to 38.4%). For patients requiring critical care, the median duration of ICU stay was 10.6 days (with 95% staying 1.3 to 30.8 days). The censoring adjusted case fatality ratio was 23.5% (95% confidence interval 19.6% to 28.2%) among male inpatients and 14.9% (11.8% to 18.6%) among female inpatients; mortality risk increased with age for both male and female patients. Reductions in R(E) were identified over the study period within each region. CONCLUSIONS: Among residents of California and Washington state enrolled in Kaiser Permanente healthcare plans who were admitted to hospital with covid-19, the probabilities of ICU admission, of long hospital stay, and of mortality were identified to be high. Incidence rates of new hospital admissions have stabilized or declined in conjunction with implementation of social distancing interventions.

negative: SARS, Greater China, and the Pathologies of Globalization and Transition

negative: Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has rapidly spread in early 2020, causing tens of thousands of deaths, over a million cases and widespread socioeconomic disruption. With no vaccine available and numerous national healthcare systems reaching or exceeding capacity, interventions to limit transmission are urgently needed. While there is broad agreement that travel restrictions and closure of non-essential businesses and schools are beneficial in limiting local and regional spread, recommendations around the use of face masks for the general population are less consistent internationally. In this study, we examined the role of face masks in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 in the general population, using epidemic models to estimate the total reduction of infections and deaths under various scenarios. In particular, we examined the optimal deployment of face masks when resources are limited, and explored a range of supply and demand dynamics. We found that face masks, even with a limited protective effect, can reduce infections and deaths, and can delay the peak time of the epidemic. We consistently found that a random distribution of masks in the population was a suboptimal strategy when resources were limited. Prioritizing coverage among the elderly was more beneficial, while allocating a proportion of available resources for diagnosed infected cases provided further mitigation under a range of scenarios. In summary, face mask use, particularly for a pathogen with relatively common asymptomatic carriage, can effectively provide some mitigation of transmission, while balancing provision between vulnerable healthy persons and symptomatic persons can optimize mitigation efforts when resources are limited.

negative: Identification of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Canada. BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a condition of unknown cause that has recently been recognized in patients in Asia, North America, and Europe. This report summarizes the initial epidemiologic findings, clinical description, and diagnostic findings that followed the identification of SARS in Canada. METHODS SARS was first identified in Canada in early March 2003. We collected epidemiologic, clinical, and diagnostic data from each of the first 10 cases prospectively as they were identified. Specimens from all cases were sent to local, provincial, national, and international laboratories for studies to identify an etiologic agent. RESULTS The patients ranged from 24 to 78 years old; 60 percent were men. Transmission occurred only after close contact. The most common presenting symptoms were fever (in 100 percent of cases) and malaise (in 70 percent), followed by nonproductive cough (in 100 percent) and dyspnea (in 80 percent) associated with infiltrates on chest radiography (in 100 percent). Lymphopenia (in 89 percent of those for whom data were available), elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels (in 80 percent), elevated aspartate aminotransferase levels (in 78 percent), and elevated creatinine kinase levels (in 56 percent) were common. Empirical therapy most commonly included antibiotics, oseltamivir, and intravenous ribavirin. Mechanical ventilation was required in five patients. Three patients died, and five have had clinical improvement. The results of laboratory investigations were negative or not clinically significant except for the amplification of human metapneumovirus from respiratory specimens from five of nine patients and the isolation and amplification of a novel coronavirus from five of nine patients. In four cases both pathogens were isolated. CONCLUSIONS SARS is a condition associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. It appears to be of viral origin, with patterns suggesting droplet or contact transmission. The role of human metapneumovirus, a novel coronavirus, or both requires further investigation.

negative: A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China Emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Zika virus disease, present a major threat to public health(1–3). Despite intense research efforts, how, when and where new diseases appear are still a source of considerable uncertainty. A severe respiratory disease was recently reported in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. As of 25 January 2020, at least 1,975 cases had been reported since the first patient was hospitalized on 12 December 2019. Epidemiological investigations have suggested that the outbreak was associated with a seafood market in Wuhan. Here we study a single patient who was a worker at the market and who was admitted to the Central Hospital of Wuhan on 26 December 2019 while experiencing a severe respiratory syndrome that included fever, dizziness and a cough. Metagenomic RNA sequencing(4) of a sample of bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from the patient identified a new RNA virus strain from the family Coronaviridae, which is designated here ‘WH-Human 1’ coronavirus (and has also been referred to as ‘2019-nCoV’). Phylogenetic analysis of the complete viral genome (29,903 nucleotides) revealed that the virus was most closely related (89.1% nucleotide similarity) to a group of SARS-like coronaviruses (genus Betacoronavirus, subgenus Sarbecovirus) that had previously been found in bats in China(5). This outbreak highlights the ongoing ability of viral spill-over from animals to cause severe disease in humans.

negative: Viral Infection in Adults with Severe Acute Respiratory Infection in Colombia OBJECTIVES: To identify the viral aetiology in adult patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) admitted to sentinel surveillance institutions in Bogotá in 2012. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study was conducted in which microarray molecular techniques for viral identification were used on nasopharyngeal samples of adult patients submitted to the surveillance system, and further descriptions of clinical features and relevant clinical outcomes, such as mortality, need for critical care, use of mechanical ventilation and hospital stay, were obtained. SETTING: Respiratory infections requiring hospital admission in surveillance centres in Bogotá, Colombia. PARTICIPANTS: Ninety-one adult patients with acute respiratory infection (55% were female). MEASUREMENTS: Viral identification, intensive care unit admission, hospital stay, and mortality. RESULTS: Viral identification was achieved for 63 patients (69.2%). Comorbidity was frequently identified and mainly involved chronic pulmonary disease or pregnancy. Influenza, Bocavirus and Adenovirus were identified in 30.8%, 28.6% and 18.7% of the cases, respectively. Admission to the intensive care unit occurred in 42.9% of the cases, while mechanical ventilation was required for 36.3%. The average hospital stay was 9.9 days, and mortality was 15.4%. Antibiotics were empirically used in 90.1% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of viral aetiology of SARI in this study was high, with adverse clinical outcomes, intensive care requirements and high mortality.

negative: COVID-19 diagnostics in context The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the need for different types of diagnostics, comparative validation of new tests, faster approval by federal agencies, and rapid production of test kits to meet global demands. In this Perspective, we discuss the utility and challenges of current diagnostics for COVID-19.

negative: Active surveillance for suspected COVID-19 cases in inpatients with information technology

negative: Coronavirus Disease: A Review of a New Threat to Public Health In December 2019, several patients from Wuhan, China were admitted to hospitals with symptoms of pneumonia. As the number of patients presenting with similar symptoms started to rise, the causative agent was eventually isolated from samples. It was initially called the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and has been recently relabelled as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); the disease it causes has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Over the next few weeks, the virus spread from Wuhan to affect different provinces in China and, after a few months, it is now present in 109 countries. As of March 10, 2020, there have been 113,702 confirmed cases globally, and 4,012 deaths have been registered. The World Health Organization (WHO) called COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. There are multiple drug trials going on with some positive results. However, since no vaccine is available, the best way to combat the virus is by preventive methods.

negative: Canada's global health role: supporting equity and global citizenship as a middle power Summary Canada's history of nation building, combined with its status as a so-called middle power in international affairs, has been translated into an approach to global health that is focused on equity and global citizenship. Canada has often aspired to be a socially progressive force abroad, using alliance building and collective action to exert influence beyond that expected from a country with moderate financial and military resources. Conversely, when Canada has primarily used economic self-interest to define its global role, the country's perceived leadership in global health has diminished. Current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal federal government has signalled a return to progressive values, driven by appreciation for diversity, equality, and Canada's responsibility to be a good global citizen. However, poor coordination of efforts, limited funding, and the unaddressed legacy of Canada's colonisation of Indigenous peoples weaken the potential for Canadians to make meaningful contributions to improvement of global health equity. Amid increased nationalism and uncertainty towards multilateral commitments by some major powers in the world, the Canadian federal government has a clear opportunity to convert its commitments to equity and global citizenship into stronger leadership on the global stage. Such leadership will require the translation of aspirational messages about health equity and inclusion into concrete action at home and internationally.

negative: Canada: public health genomics. Canada has a diverse population of 32 million people and a universal, publicly funded health care system provided through provincial and territorial health insurance plans. Public health activities are resourced at provincial/territorial level with strategic coordination from national bodies. Canada has one of the longest-standing genetics professional specialty organizations and is one of the few countries offering master's level training designed specifically for genetic counselors. Prenatal screening is offered as part of routine clinical prenatal services with variable uptake. Surveillance of the effect of prenatal screening and diagnosis on the birth prevalence of congenital anomalies is limited by gaps and variations in surveillance systems. Newborn screening programs vary between provinces and territories in terms of organization and conditions screened for. The last decade has witnessed a four-fold increase in requests for genetic testing, especially for late onset diseases. Tests are performed in provincial laboratories or outside Canada. There is wide variation in participation in laboratory quality assurance schemes, and there are few regulatory frameworks in Canada that are directly relevant to genetics testing services or population genetics. Health technology assessment in Canada is conducted by a diverse range of organizations, several of which have produced reports related to genetics. Several large-scale population cohort studies are underway or planned, with initiatives to harmonize their conduct and the management of ethical issues, both within Canada and with similar projects in other countries.

negative: A clinical risk score to identify patients with COVID-19 at high risk of critical care admission or death: An observational cohort study BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate. There is urgent need to stratify patients. Understanding risk of deterioration will assist in admission and discharge decisions, and help selection for clinical studies to indicate where risk of therapy-related complications is justified. METHODS: An observational cohort of patients acutely admitted to two London hospitals with COVID-19 and positive SARS-CoV-2 swab results was assessed. Demographic details, clinical data, comorbidities, blood parameters and chest radiograph severity scores were collected from electronic health records. Endpoints assessed were critical care admission and death. A risk score was developed to predict outcomes. FINDINGS: Analyses included 1,157 patients. Older age, male sex, comorbidities, respiratory rate, oxygenation, radiographic severity, higher neutrophils, higher CRP and lower albumin at presentation predicted critical care admission and mortality. Non-white ethnicity predicted critical care admission but not death. Social deprivation was not predictive of outcome. A risk score was developed incorporating twelve characteristics: age>40, male, non-white ethnicity, oxygen saturations<93%, radiological severity score>3, neutrophil count>8.0 x109/L, CRP>40â¯mg/L, albumin<34â¯g/L, creatinine>100â¯µmol/L, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic lung disease. Risk scores of 4 or higher corresponded to a 28-day cumulative incidence of critical care admission or death of 40.7% (95% CI: 37.1 to 44.4), versus 12.4% (95% CI: 8.2 to 16.7) for scores less than 4. INTERPRETATION: Our study identified predictors of critical care admission and death in people admitted to hospital with COVID-19. These predictors were incorporated into a risk score that will inform clinical care and stratify patients for clinical trials.

negative: Financing strategies to improve essential public health equalization and its effects in China BACKGROUND: In 2009, China launched a health reform to promote the equalization of national essential public health services package (NEPHSP). The present study aimed to describe the financing strategies and mechanisms to improve access to public health for all, identify the strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches, and showed evidence on equity improvement among different regions. METHODS: We reviewed the relevant literatures and identified 208 articles after screening and quality assessment and conducted six key informants’ interviews. Secondary data on national and local government health expenditures, NEPHSP coverage and health indicators in 2003–2014 were collected, descriptive and equity analyses were used. RESULTS: Before 2009, the government subsidy to primary care institutions (PCIs) were mainly used for basic construction and a small part of personnel expenses. Since 2009, the new funds for NEPHSP have significantly expanded service coverage and population coverage. These funds have been allocated by central, provincial, municipal and county governments at different proportions in China’s tax distribution system. Due to the fiscal transfer payment, the Central Government allocated more subsides to less-developed western regions and all the funds were managed in a specific account. Several types of payment methods have been adopted including capitation, pay for performance (P4P), pay for service items, global budget and public health voucher, to address issues from both the supply and demand sides. The equalization of NEPHSP did well through the establishment of health records, systematic care of children and maternal women, etc. Our data showed that the gap between the eastern, central and western regions narrowed. However the coverage for migrants was still low and performance was needed improving in effectiveness of managing patients with chronic diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The delivery of essential public health services was highly influenced by public fiscal policy, and the implementation of health reform since 2009 has led the public health development towards the right direction. However China still needs to increase the fiscal investments to expand service coverage as well as promote the quality of public health services and equality among regions. Independent scientific monitoring and evaluation are also needed.

negative: Fostering evidence-based decision-making in Canada: examining the need for a Canadian population and public health evidence centre and research network.

negative: Coronavirus neuropathogenesis: could SARS be the tip of the iceberg?

negative: A Human Rights Approach to Emergency Response? The Advocacy of Canada's Human Rights Commissions during the COVID-19 Crisis Emergencies can threaten human rights by disrupting societies, increasing vulnerabilities, and instigating exceptional measures from governments and other actors. As independent institutions mandated to protect and promote the human rights embedded in Canada's federal, provincial and territorial legislation, Canada's human rights commissions (HRCs) have mobilized to advocate for human rights during the COVID-19 public health emergency.

negative: New indication for an old anesthetic technique: could we consider now rapid sequence spinal anesthesia in a COVID-19 time?

negative: Public Health Lessons: Practicing and Teaching Public Health The following four cases represent events that actually occurred at the local, statewide, national, and international levels. A general, succinct overview is provided of each case with references listed should the reader want to access additional resource materials. The concise format of these cases is intended to generate questions. Following the general overview of each case, I examine the lessons learned from the practitioner and educator perspective and I list the skills necessary to address the issues in the case. The reader will note that there are skills that are essential for the public health practitioner to master, whether one is in an internship, entry-level position, or the director of a public health organization and so these skills are consistently listed. I encourage the reader to regularly keep abreast of the news locally and abroad and to set aside time before a staff meeting or supervisory group meeting, or use the first few minutes of a class to discuss these issues. Ask your workforce or students, “Are we ready to handle such an event if it were to occur here?”; “What resources would we need to have accessible?”; “Have we partnered with the correct agencies in the community?”; “Do we have an established, trusted presence in the community?”; “Who else do we need on our team?”; “Do we need training in a specialty area, e.g., emergency preparedness?”; “What skills have we mastered and what skills do we need to obtain?” The discussion-based questions are endless but one runs the risk of not being prepared, either individually, or in their agency, should they not discuss how public health events are occurring around us daily. I encourage you to adapt these selected cases to use in your organization and/or classroom. Discussing these issues and reviewing the lessons learned will only help us to be better prepared public health practitioners and educators of public health students.

negative: Health systems planning for an influenza pandemic Abstract District planning, in general, and influenza pandemic planning, in particular, are necessary to sustain health care organizations and systems. An extensive stakeholder process used by Capital District Health Authority (CDHA) and the Izaak Walton Killam (IWK) Health Centre involved more than 25 teams. This work resulted in a joint CDHA/IWK pandemic influenza contingency plan for public health, primary care, acute care and tertiary care services. In addition, district and business continuity planning has been enhanced.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome diagnostics using a coronavirus protein microarray. To monitor severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) infection, a coronavirus protein microarray that harbors proteins from SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and five additional coronaviruses was constructed. These microarrays were used to screen approximately 400 Canadian sera from the SARS outbreak, including samples from confirmed SARS-CoV cases, respiratory illness patients, and healthcare professionals. A computer algorithm that uses multiple classifiers to predict samples from SARS patients was developed and used to predict 206 sera from Chinese fever patients. The test assigned patients into two distinct groups: those with antibodies to SARS-CoV and those without. The microarray also identified patients with sera reactive against other coronavirus proteins. Our results correlated well with an indirect immunofluorescence test and demonstrated that viral infection can be monitored for many months after infection. We show that protein microarrays can serve as a rapid, sensitive, and simple tool for large-scale identification of viral-specific antibodies in sera.

negative: Actualización de la situación epidemiológica de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en España. Comentarios a las recomendaciones de manejo de la infección en pediatría

negative: Economic thoughts on COVID‐19 for Canadian food processors In this paper, I explore the potential effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic on Canadian food processors. First, COVID‐19 may have an impact on food processing economic activities because of supply and demand shocks. Second, the impact of COVID‐19 on food processing may depend on the type of products and the size of the processors. The effects of measures taken by the government to flatten the epidemiological curve on the economic activities of the food processing sector are uncertain.

negative: SARS coronavirus: a new challenge for prevention and therapy.

negative: COVID-19 OUTBREAK IN POST-SOVIET STATES: MODELING THE BEST AND WORST POSSIBLE SCENARIOS Background: COVID-19 pandemic has presented extreme challenges to developing countries across the world. Post-Soviet states are facing unique challenges due to their developing healthcare systems and unstable economy. The aim of this paper was to provide estimates for current development COVID-19 pandemic in the Post-Soviet states and forecast potential best and worst scenarios for spread of this deadly infection. Methods: The data on confirmed cases and deaths were extracted from official governmental sources for a period from beginning of outbreak dates for each country until April 18, 2020. A modified SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) modelling was used to plot the parameters of epidemic in 10 post-Soviet states and forecast the number of cases over a period of 10, 30 and 60 days. We also estimated the numbers of cases based on the optimal measures (best scenario) and suboptimal measures (worst scenarios) of potential spread of COVID-19 in these countries. Results: It was estimated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have reached their peaks, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Uzbekistan are expected to reach their peaks in the coming week (April 29 - May 7, 2020), with comparatively low cases of COVID-19 and loss of lives in the best-case scenario. In contrast, Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine would likely see the outbreaks with the largest number of COVID-19 cases amongst the studied Post-Soviet States in the worst scenario during the next 30 and 60 days. Geographical remoteness and small number of international travelers from the countries heavily affected by the pandemic could also have contributed to delay in the spread of COVID-19. Conclusion: Governmental response was shown to be as an important determining factor responsible for the development of COVID-19 epidemic in Post-Soviet states. The current protection rates should be maintained to reduce active cases during upcoming 30 and 60 days. The estimated possible scenarios based on the proposed model can potentially be used by healthcare professionals from each studied Post-Soviet States as well as others to improve plans to contain the current and future epidemic.

negative: The Impact of Trauma Systems on Patient Outcomes

negative: Trial by Zoom? The Response to COVID-19 by Canada's Courts COVID-19 has made videoconferencing a regular occurrence in the lives of Canadians. Videoconferencing is being used to maintain social ties, run business meetings—and to uphold responsible government. On April 28, 2020, Members of the House of Commons sat virtually using Zoom. The virtual sitting was the first of what will become a stand-in for regular proceedings, allowing the Members to fulfill some of their parliamentary duties while complying with physical distancing (see Malloy, 2020). As the legislative and executive branches look to digital technology to allow the business of government to continue, what about the judicial branch of Canada's government? Courts are an essential service. This is best articulated by the Chief Justice of Nova Scotia: “The fact is, the Courts cannot close. As the third branch of government, an independent judiciary is vital for our Canadian democracy to function. It is never more important than in times of crisis” (Wood, 2020). In this analysis, we seek to understand how courts have responded to COVID-19 and the challenges of physical distancing through the use of digital technologies. This is accomplished through a systematic review of COVID-19 statements and directives issued from all levels of court across Canada. We briefly compare Canada to the United States, a jurisdiction that demonstrates greater openness to technology.

negative: Blood glucose is a representative of the clustered indicators of multi-organ injury for predicting mortality of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China OBJECTIVE Most patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) were Mild or Moderate. Severe patients progressed rapidly to Critical condition including multi-organ failure and even death. Identification of early predictive factors is urgently necessary to facilitate appropriate intensive care. METHODS We included all patient admitted to Wuhan Union Hospital and treated by the supportive medical team of Beijing Tongren Hospital as of March 20, 2020. Indicators of injuries for multiple organs, including the heart, kidney and liver, and glucose homeostasis were specifically analyzed for predicting primary outcomes (an intensive care unit (ICU) or death). RESULTS The data of 120 patients with a severity equal to or greater than Moderate, discharged or died were extracted. After excluding patients with history of diabetes, chronic heart, kidney, and liver disease, 69 patients were included in the final analysis. There were 26 cases with primary outcomes including 16 deaths. Univariable analysis indicated that fasting blood glucose (FBG), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH), creatine kinase and creatinine were associated with primary outcomes and death. Among patients with primary outcomes, although FBG levels were much higher on admission, they dramatically decreased subsequently, while in deceased patients they increased continuously. Multivariable Cox regression indicated that FBG≥7mmol/L was the only independent predictor for death (HR = 3.75, 95% CI 1.26-11.15). Cluster analysis found more proximities of FBG (at the time of admission) with LDH, HDDH or Creatinine (after 2-4 days of hospitalization) (r=0.43, 0.43 and 0.50, respectively, P<0.01 for all). Conclusions Blood glucose is a representative of the clustered indicators of multi-organ injury and earlier predictor for poor outcomes and death in the COVID patients. As it is easy to perform for clinical practices and self-monitoring, glucose testing will be much helpful for predicting poor outcomes to facilitate appropriate intensive care.

negative: SARS‐coronavirus modulation of myocardial ACE2 expression and inflammation in patients with SARS Background Angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), a monocarboxylase that degrades angiotensin II to angiotensin 1–7, is also the functional receptor for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS‐CoV) and is highly expressed in the lungs and heart. Patients with SARS also suffered from cardiac disease including arrhythmias, sudden cardiac death, and systolic and diastolic dysfunction. Materials and methods We studied mice infected with the human strain of the SARS‐CoV and encephalomyocarditis virus and examined ACE2 mRNA and protein expression. Autopsy heart samples from patients who succumbed to the SARS crisis in Toronto (Canada) were used to investigate the impact of SARS on myocardial structure, inflammation and ACE2 protein expression. Results Pulmonary infection with the human SARS‐CoV in mice led to an ACE2‐dependent myocardial infection with a marked decrease in ACE2 expression confirming a critical role of ACE2 in mediating SARS‐CoV infection in the heart. The SARS‐CoV viral RNA was detected in 35% (7/20) of autopsied human heart samples obtained from patients who succumbed to the SARS crisis during the Toronto SARS outbreak. Macrophage‐specific staining showed a marked increase in macrophage infiltration with evidence of myocardial damage in patients who had SARS‐CoV in their hearts. The presence of SARS‐CoV in the heart was also associated with marked reductions in ACE2 protein expression. Conclusions Our data show that SARS‐CoV can mediate myocardial inflammation and damage associated with down‐regulation of myocardial ACE2 system, which may be responsible for the myocardial dysfunction and adverse cardiac outcomes in patients with SARS.

negative: I don't feel confident providing remote consultations. What do I need to know?

negative: A data-driven network model for the emerging COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan, Toronto and Italy The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens the health of humans and causes great economic losses. Predictive modelling and forecasting the epidemic trends are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this pandemic. We develop a network model, where each node represents an individual and the edges represent contacts between individuals where the infection can spread. The individuals are classified based on the number of contacts they have each day (their node degrees) and their infection status. The transmission network model was respectively fitted to the reported data for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan (China), Toronto (Canada), and the Italian Republic using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) optimization algorithm. Our model fits all three regions well with narrow confidence intervals and could be adapted to simulate other megacities or regions. The model projections on the role of containment strategies can help inform public health authorities to plan control measures.

negative: Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health The undefendable outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) lead to a global health emergency due to its higher transmission rate and longer symptomatic duration, created a health surge in a short time. Since Nov 2019 the outbreak in China, the virus is spreading exponentially everywhere. The current study focuses on the relationship between environmental parameters and the growth rate of COVID-19. The statistical analysis suggests that the temperature changes retarded the growth rate and found that -6.28{degrees}C and +14.51{degrees}C temperature is the favorable range for COVID-19 growth. Gutenberg- Richter's relationship is used to estimate the mean daily rate of exceedance of confirmed cases concerning the change in temperature. Temperature is the most influential parameter that reduces the growth at the rate of 13-16 cases/day with a 1{degrees}C rise in temperature.

negative: Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro

negative: Fast and simple high-throughput testing of COVID 19

negative: The potential influence of human parainfluenza viruses detected during hospitalization among critically ill patients in Kuwait, 2013–2015 BACKGROUND: The four types of human parainfluenza viruses (PIV) are important causes of community-acquired pneumonia, particularly in children; however, limited information exists about the incidence of PIV in critically ill patients. The aim of this study is to describe the spectrum, incidence and clinical features of PIV-associated infections diagnosed during the hospital stay of patients admitted to pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) and intensive care unit (ICU) of 5 medical centers across Kuwait. METHODS: This was a population-based, retrospective study from 2013 to 2015. Specimens were analyzed by molecular methods. This analysis was performed using the database of Virology Unit, Mubarak Al-Kabeer Hospital. Data from 1510 admitted patients with suspected respiratory viral infections was extracted. RESULTS: The database contained a total of 39 (2.6%) patients infected with PIV (53.8% male and 46.2% females) and 20 (51.3%) were under 1 year of age. The most frequently isolated type was type 3 (28, 71.8%) followed by type 1 (9, 23.1%). At admission the most common clinical diagnosis was pneumonia in 12 patients (30.8%, p < 0.05) followed by bronchiolitis in 10 patients (25.6%). CONCLUSION: PIV plays an important yet unrecognized role in the outcomes of PIUC and ICU patients. Our results contribute to the limited epidemiologic data of PIV in PIUC and ICU in this region.

negative: The effect of regionalization on outcome in pulmonary lobectomy: A Canadian national study Objective To examine the effect of regionalization of thoracic surgery services in Canada by evaluating change over time in hospital volumes of pulmonary lobectomy and its impact on length of stay and in-hospital mortality. Methods Data on pulmonary lobectomy between 1999 and 2007 were abstracted from the Canadian Institute for Health Information Discharge Abstract Database. In-hospital mortality was analyzed by logistic regression, and log-transformed length of stay was analyzed by linear regression. Cross-sectional analysis of hospital volume, in-hospital mortality, and length of stay was performed, controlling for clustering. Within-hospital changes in annual volume on outcome was analyzed using multivariable logistic regression, controlling for Charlson comorbidity index and other confounders. Results Of 19,732 patients, 10, 281 (52%) were male, with an average age of 63.3 years. There was a 45% (95% confidence interval, 21–61; P = .001) relative risk reduction in in-hospital mortality with a 19% reduction in length of stay (95% confidence interval, 12–25; P < .0001). On comparison of volume between hospitals, an increase of 20 cases was associated with a 15% relative risk reduction (95% confidence interval, 9–19; P < .0001) in in-hospital mortality and a 5% relative decrease (95% confidence interval, 3–7; P < .001) in length of stay. Within hospitals there was a nonsignificant relationship between volume and in-hospital mortality. Conclusions In-hospital mortality and length of stay for lobectomies have decreased in Canada. In multivariate analysis, volume was associated with improved in-hospital mortality, but there was no reduction in mortality when volume was increased within a given hospital. However, the proportion of patients treated in high-volume centers has increased over time, inferring the importance of high-volume centers in improved outcomes. This supports regionalization policies for pulmonary lobectomy.

negative: Emerging Viruses Emerging viruses are viruses that appear suddenly in the human population. These are viruses to which man has no history of exposure and thus no or limited immunity; they are not new evolutionary creations, but are viruses than man meets due to environmental changes, such as deforestation, entering into new habitats, or viruses that are transmitted from one species of animal to humans. Most of these viruses are terrifying, and cause hemorrhagic fever, a complete destruction of the circulation system; they include Lassa fever, Nipah virus, Ebola, HIV, Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and, recently, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which is the latest in a series of “new” respiratory viruses infecting man. It is possible that unknown emerging viruses are the cause of death, often listed as “death due to an unknown cause,” as in the retrospective cases of HIV. Emerging viruses might also include poliovirus and influenza, since their introduction into the human population is (was) often sudden and due to changes in the environment or due to contact with other animal species. For examples, polio was a result of changes in sanitation in the countries of North America and Western Europe, and influenza is constantly jumping from aquatic birds to man and other animal species where genomic reassortment occurs.

negative: Rapidly increasing cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the European Union/European Economic Area and the United Kingdom, 1 January to 15 March 2020 The cumulative incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is showing similar trends in European Union/European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom confirming that, while at a different stage depending on the country, the COVID-19 pandemic is progressing rapidly in all countries. Based on the experience from Italy, countries, hospitals and intensive care units should increase their preparedness for a surge of patients with COVID-19 who will require healthcare, and in particular intensive care.

negative: Canadian Conference on Medical Education

negative: Border Screening for SARS With the rapid international spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from March through May 2003, Canada introduced various measures to screen airplane passengers at selected airports for symptoms and signs of SARS. The World Health Organization requested that all affected areas screen departing passengers for SARS symptoms. In spite of intensive screening, no SARS cases were detected. SARS has an extremely low prevalence, and the positive predictive value of screening is essentially zero. Canadian screening results raise questions about the effectiveness of available screening measures for SARS at international borders.

negative: Why does COVID-19 case fatality rate vary among countries? Background While the epidemic of SARS-CoV-2 is spreading worldwide, there is much concern over the mortality rate that the infection induces. Available data suggest that COVID-19 case fatality rate varies temporally (as the epidemic progresses) and spatially (among countries). Here, we attempted to identify key factors possibly explaining the variability in case fatality rate across countries. Methods We used data on the temporal trajectory of case fatality rate provided by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, and country-specific data on different metrics describing the incidence of known comorbidity factors associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality at the individual level (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation). We also compiled data on demography, economy and political regimes for each country. Findings We first showed that temporal trajectories of case fatality rate greatly vary among countries. We found no evidence for association between comorbidities and case fatality rate at the country level. Case fatality rate was negatively associated with number of hospital beds x1,000 inhabitants. We also report evidence suggesting an association between case fatality rate and the political regime, with democracies suffering from the highest mortality burden, compared to autocratic regimes. However, most of the among-country variance in case fatality rate remained unexplained. Interpretation Overall, these results emphasize the role of socio-economic and political factors as possible drivers of COVID-19 case fatality rate at the country level. Funding None.

negative: Multinational modeling of SARS-CoV-2 spreading dynamics: Insights on the heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission and its potential healthcare burden Background: Modelling and projections of COVID-19 using a single set of transmission parameters can be an elaborated because the application of different levels of containment measures at different stages of the worldwide COVID-19 outbreak. Methods: We developed a piecewise fitting SEIR methodology to fit the progress of the COVID-19 that can be applied on any of the 185 countries listed in John Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. The contagious contact rate, the rate of removal and the initially exposed population were obtained at three different stages of the pandemic for a set of 18 countries, and globally for the total number of cases worldwide. The active number of infections and the removed populations were fitted simultaneously to validate the SEIR model against the available time series reports on the number of confirmed infections, recoveries and deaths. We evaluate the effect of a reduction of contagious contact rate on the level of burden put on local healthcare infrastructure considering different levels of intervention. As a guideline for future public health interventions, we also estimated the maximum number of future cases and its potential peak date. Findings: We project that the peak in the number of infections worldwide will take place after the third quarter of 2020 with a decline rate that might extend beyond 2020. For 12 out of the 18 countries analyzed, we observe that, following the trend at the date of this study, the number of severe infections will surpass their healthcare capacity. For a 90% reduction scenario of the contagious contact rate, four out of the 18 countries analyzed will undergo a significant delay in the peak of infection, extending the course of the epidemic further than our simulation window (365 days). Interpretation: We identify three stages for the COVID-19 transmission dynamics, which suggest that it is highly heterogeneous between countries and its contagious contact rate, is currently affected by both local responses of the public health interventions and to the population's adherence to the measures. Funding: No funding received.

negative: Effectiveness of cough etiquette maneuvers in disrupting the chain of transmission of infectious respiratory diseases BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of recommended measures, such as “cover your mouth when coughing”, in disrupting the chain of transmission of infectious respiratory diseases (IRD) has been questioned. The objective of the current study was to determine the effectiveness of simple primary respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette maneuvers in blocking droplets expelled as aerosol during coughing. METHOD: In this study, 31 healthy non-smokers performed cough etiquette maneuvers in an effort to cover their voluntarily elicited best effort coughs in an open bench format. A laser diffraction system was used to obtain accurate, non-invasive, quantitative, real time measurements of the size and number of droplets emitted during the assessed cough etiquette maneuvers. RESULTS: Recommended cough etiquette maneuvers did not block the release and dispersion of a variety of different diameter droplets to the surrounding environment. Droplets smaller than one-micron size dominate the total number of droplets leaked when practicing assessed maneuvers. CONCLUSIONS: All the assessed cough etiquette maneuvers, performed as recommended, do not block droplets expelled as aerosol when coughing. This aerosol can penetrate profound levels of the respiratory system. Practicing these assessed primary respiratory hygiene/cough etiquette maneuvers would still permit direct, indirect, and/or airborne transmission and spread of IRD, such as influenza and Tuberculosis. All the assessed cough etiquette maneuvers, as recommended, do not fully interrupt the chain of transmission of IRD. This knowledge urges us all to critically review recommended CE and to search for new evidence-based procedures that effectively disrupt the transmission of respiratory pathogens. Interrupting the chain of transmission of IRD will optimize the protection of first responders, paramedics, nurses, and doctors working in triage sites, emergency rooms, intensive care units, and the general public against cough-droplet-spread diseases.

negative: Recomendaciones de consenso respecto al soporte respiratorio no invasivo en el paciente adulto con insuficiencia respiratoria aguda secundaria a infección por SARS-CoV-2./ Recomendaciones de consenso respecto al soporte respiratorio no invasivo en el paciente adulto con insuficiencia respiratoria aguda secundaria a infección por SARS-CoV-2./ Clinical Consensus Recommendations Regarding Non-Invasive Respiratory Support in the Adult Patient with Acute Respiratory Failure Secondary to SARS-CoV-2 infection Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory tract infection caused by a newly emergent coronavirus, that was first recognized in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined the infection as a global pandemic and there is a health and social emergency for the management of this new infection. While most people with COVID-19 develop only mild or uncomplicated illness, approximately 14% develop severe disease that requires hospitalization and oxygen support, and 5% require admission to an intensive care unit. In severe cases, COVID-19 can be complicated by the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis and septic shock, and multiorgan failure. This consensus document has been prepared on evidence-informed guidelines developed by a multidisciplinary panel of health care providers from four Spanish scientific societies (Spanish Society of Intensive Care Medicine [SEMICYUC], Spanish Society of Pulmonologists [SEPAR], Spanish Society of Emergency [SEMES], Spanish Society of Anesthesiology, Reanimation, and Pain [SEDAR]) with experience in the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and other viral infections, including SARS, as well as sepsis and ARDS. The document provides clinical recommendations for the noninvasive respiratory support (noninvasive ventilation, high flow oxygen therapy with nasal cannula) in any patient with suspected or confirmed presentation of COVID-19 with acute respiratory failure. This consensus guidance should serve as a foundation for optimized supportive care to ensure the best possible chance for survival and to allow for reliable comparison of investigational therapeutic interventions as part of randomized controlled trials.

negative: Prediction of numbers of the accumulative confirmed patients (NACP) and the plateau phase of 2019-nCoV in China In the present study, I propose a novel fitting method to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. The fitted data were selected carefully from the non-Hubei part and Hubei Province of China respectively. For the non-Hubei part, the time period of data collection corresponds from the beginning of the policy of isolation to present day. But for Hubei Province, the subjects of Wuhan City and Hubei Province were included from the time of admission to the Huoshenshan Hospital to present day in order to ensure that all or the majority of the confirmed and suspected patients were collected for diagnosis and treatment. The employed basic functions for fitting are the hyperbolic tangent functions [Formula: see text] since in these cases the 2019-nCoV is just an epidemic. Subsequently, the 2019-nCoV will initially expand rapidly and tend to disappear. Therefore, the numbers of the accumulative confirmed patients in different cities, provinces and geographical regions will initially increase rapidly and subsequently stabilize to a plateau phase. The selection of the basic functions for fitting is crucial. In the present study, I found that the hyperbolic tangent functions [Formula: see text] could satisfy the aforementioned properties. By this novel method, I can obtain two significant results. They base on the conditions that the rigorous isolation policy is executed continually. Initially, I can predict the numbers very accurately of the cumulative confirmed patients in different cities, provinces and parts in China, notably, in Wuhan City with the smallest relative error estimated to [Formula: see text] , in Hubei Province with the smallest relative error estimated to [Formula: see text] and in the non-Hubei part of China with the smallest relative error of [Formula: see text] 0.195% in the short-term period of infection. In addition, perhaps I can predict the times when the plateau phases will occur respectively in different regions in the long-term period of infection. Generally for the non-Hubei part of China, the plateau phase of the outbreak of the 2019-nCoV will be expected this March or at the end of this February. In the non-Hubei region of China it is expected that the epidemic will cease on the 30th of March 2020 and following this date no new confirmed patient will be expected. The predictions of the time of Inflection Points and maximum NACP for some important regions may be also obtained. A specific plan for the prevention measures of the 2019-nCoV outbreak must be implemented. This will involve the present returning to work and resuming production in China. Based on the presented results, I suggest that the rigorous isolation policy by the government should be executed regularly during daily life and work duties. Moreover, as many as possible the confirmed and suspected cases should be collected to diagnose or treat.

negative: A Phylogeny-Based Global Nomenclature System and Automated Annotation Tool for H1 Hemagglutinin Genes from Swine Influenza A Viruses The H1 subtype of influenza A viruses (IAVs) has been circulating in swine since the 1918 human influenza pandemic. Over time, and aided by further introductions from nonswine hosts, swine H1 viruses have diversified into three genetic lineages. Due to limited global data, these H1 lineages were named based on colloquial context, leading to a proliferation of inconsistent regional naming conventions. In this study, we propose rigorous phylogenetic criteria to establish a globally consistent nomenclature of swine H1 virus hemagglutinin (HA) evolution. These criteria applied to a data set of 7,070 H1 HA sequences led to 28 distinct clades as the basis for the nomenclature. We developed and implemented a web-accessible annotation tool that can assign these biologically informative categories to new sequence data. The annotation tool assigned the combined data set of 7,070 H1 sequences to the correct clade more than 99% of the time. Our analyses indicated that 87% of the swine H1 viruses from 2010 to the present had HAs that belonged to 7 contemporary cocirculating clades. Our nomenclature and web-accessible classification tool provide an accurate method for researchers, diagnosticians, and health officials to assign clade designations to HA sequences. The tool can be updated readily to track evolving nomenclature as new clades emerge, ensuring continued relevance. A common global nomenclature facilitates comparisons of IAVs infecting humans and pigs, within and between regions, and can provide insight into the diversity of swine H1 influenza virus and its impact on vaccine strain selection, diagnostic reagents, and test performance, thereby simplifying communication of such data. IMPORTANCE A fundamental goal in the biological sciences is the definition of groups of organisms based on evolutionary history and the naming of those groups. For influenza A viruses (IAVs) in swine, understanding the hemagglutinin (HA) genetic lineage of a circulating strain aids in vaccine antigen selection and allows for inferences about vaccine efficacy. Previous reporting of H1 virus HA in swine relied on colloquial names, frequently with incriminating and stigmatizing geographic toponyms, making comparisons between studies challenging. To overcome this, we developed an adaptable nomenclature using measurable criteria for historical and contemporary evolutionary patterns of H1 global swine IAVs. We also developed a web-accessible tool that classifies viruses according to this nomenclature. This classification system will aid agricultural production and pandemic preparedness through the identification of important changes in swine IAVs and provides terminology enabling discussion of swine IAVs in a common context among animal and human health initiatives.

negative: Voices from the frontline: findings from a thematic analysis of a rapid online global survey of maternal and newborn health professionals facing the COVID-19 pandemic Objective To prospectively document experiences of frontline maternal and newborn healthcare providers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Design Cross-sectional study via an online survey disseminated through professional networks and social media in 12 languages. We analysed responses using descriptive statistics and qualitative thematic analysis disaggregating by low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs). Setting 81 countries, between March 24 and April 10, 2020. Participants 714 maternal and newborn healthcare providers. Main outcome measures Preparedness for and response to COVID-19, experiences of health workers providing care to women and newborns, and adaptations to 17 outpatient and inpatient care processes during the pandemic. Results Only one third of respondents received training on COVID-19 from their health facility and nearly all searched for information themselves. Half of respondents in LMICs received updated guidelines for care provision compared with 82% in HICs. Overall, only 47% of participants in LMICs, and 69% in HICs felt mostly or completely knowledgeable in how to care for COVID-19 maternity patients. Facility-level responses to COVID-19 (signage, screening, testing, and isolation rooms) were more common in HICs than LMICs. Globally, 90% of respondents reported somewhat or substantially higher levels of stress. There was a widespread perception of reduced use of routine maternity care services, and of modification in care processes, some of which were not evidence-based. Conclusions Substantial knowledge gaps exist in guidance on management of maternity cases with or without COVID-19. Formal information sharing channels for providers must be established and mental health support provided. Surveys of maternity care providers can help track the situation, capture innovations, and support rapid development of effective responses.

negative: [Surgical treatment for esophageal cancer during the outbreak of COVID-19]. Since December 2019, unexplained pneumonia has appeared in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, and a new type of coronavirus infection was confirmed as COVID-19. COVID-19 spread rapidly nationwide and abroad. The COVID-19 has brought huge impacts to all the people and walks of life, especially to the medical and health systems. It has also brought great challenges to the treatment of patients with cancer. Esophageal cancer is a common malignant tumor in China and most of the patients are in the middle and advanced stage when diagnosed, with immunosuppressive and poor prognosis. The selection of surgical procedures and perioperative managements of esophageal cancer require all thoracic surgeons work together to figure out a reasonable system of surgical treatment and emergency response.

negative: Clinical and pathological characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a systematic review Importance: In 2002-2003, a severe pulmonary infectious disease occurred in Guangdong, China. The disease was caused by SARS-CoV, 17 years apart, also happen in China, and SARS-CoV-2, this epidemic has posed a significant hazard to people health both China and the whole world. Objective: Summarized the latest epidemiological changes, clinical manifestations, auxiliary examination and pathological characteristics of COVID-19. Evidence Review: PubMed database were searched from 2019 to 2020 using the index terms novel coronavirus or COVID-19 or 2019-nCoV or SARS-CoV-2 and synonyms. Articles that reported clinical characteristics, laboratory results, imageological diagnosis and pathologic condition were included and were retrospectively reviewed for these cases. This paper adopts the method of descriptive statistics. Results: 34 COVID-19-related articles were eligible for this systematic review;Four of the articles were related to pathology. We found that Fever (86.0%), cough (63.9%) and Malaise/Fatigue (34.7%) were the most common symptoms in COVID-19. But in general, the clinical symptoms and signs of COVID-19 were not obvious. Compared with SARS, COVID-19 was transmitted in a more diverse way. The mortality rates of COVID-19 were 2.5%, and the overall infection rate of healthcare worker of COVID-19 was 3.9%. We also found that the pathological features of COVID-19 have greatly similar with SARS, which manifested as ARDS. But the latest pathological examination of COVID-19 revealed the obvious mucinous secretions in the lungs. Interpretation: The clinical and pathological characteristics of SARS and COVID-19 in China are very similar, but also difference. The latest finds of pathological examination on COVID-19 may upend existing treatment schemes, so the early recognition of disease by healthcare worker is very important.

negative: The far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve: local re-openings based on globally coordinated triggers may work best In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission amongst an interconnected group of population centres representing counties, municipalities and districts (collectively, ``counties''). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from the province of Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of re-opening (and re-closing, as needed) schools and workplaces county-by-county according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide re-opening and re-closing according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. We find that the local strategy results in far fewer person-days of closure but only slightly more coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, even under assumptions of high inter-county travel. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise significantly when county triggers are not coordinated by the province and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that phased plans for re-opening economies on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider preceding larger-scale re-openings with coordinated local re-openings.

negative: Association of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers with the Risk of Hospitalization and Death in Hypertensive Patients with Coronavirus Disease-19 BACKGROUND: Whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) Inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) mitigate or exacerbate SARS-CoV-2 infection remains uncertain. In a national study, we evaluated the association of ACE inhibitors and ARB with coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) hospitalization and mortality among individuals with hypertension. METHODS: Among Medicare Advantage and commercially insured individuals, we identified 2,263 people with hypertension, receiving ≥1 antihypertensive agents, and who had a positive outpatient SARS-CoV-2 test (outpatient cohort). In a propensity score-matched analysis, we determined the association of ACE inhibitors and ARBs with the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19. In a second study of 7,933 individuals with hypertension who were hospitalized with COVID-19 (inpatient cohort), we tested the association of these medications with in-hospital mortality. We stratified all our assessments by insurance groups. RESULTS: Among individuals in the outpatient and inpatient cohorts, 31.9% and 29.8%, respectively, used ACE inhibitors and 32.3% and 28.1% used ARBs. In the outpatient study, over a median 30.0 (19.0 - 40.0) days after testing positive, 12.7% were hospitalized for COVID-19. In propensity score-matched analyses, neither ACE inhibitors (HR, 0.77 [0.53, 1.13], P = 0.18), nor ARBs (HR, 0.88 [0.61, 1.26], P = 0.48), were significantly associated with risk of hospitalization. In analyses stratified by insurance group, ACE inhibitors, but not ARBs, were associated with a significant lower risk of hospitalization in the Medicare group (HR, 0.61 [0.41, 0.93], P = 0.02), but not the commercially insured group (HR: 2.14 [0.82, 5.60], P = 0.12; P-interaction 0.09). In the inpatient study, 14.2% died, 59.5% survived to discharge, and 26.3% had an ongoing hospitalization. In propensity score-matched analyses, neither use of ACE inhibitor (0.97 [0.81, 1.16]; P = 0.74) nor ARB (1.15 [0.95, 1.38]; P = 0.15) was associated with risk of in-hospital mortality, in total or in the stratified analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The use of ACE inhibitors and ARBs was not associated with the risk of hospitalization or mortality among those infected with SARS-CoV-2. However, there was a nearly 40% lower risk of hospitalization with the use of ACE inhibitors in the Medicare population. This finding merits a clinical trial to evaluate the potential role of ACE inhibitors in reducing the risk of hospitalization among older individuals, who are at an elevated risk of adverse outcomes with the infection.

negative: Mortality Analysis of COVID-19 Confirmed cases in Pakistan Introduction: COVID-19, a novel disease, appeared in December 2019 in China and rapidly spread across the world. Till the second week of April 2020, high incidence (2.9/100,000) and cases fatality rates (1.7%) were observed in Pakistan. This study was conducted to determine the temporal and spatial distribution of the first 100 deaths attributed to COVID-19 in Pakistan and their associated demographic factors. Method: We conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of the first 100 deaths reported among RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases. Demographic, epidemiological, and risk factors information was obtained associated comorbidities and clinical signs and symptoms were recorded and frequencies were determined. Results: A total of 100 mortalities with overall Case Fatality Rate 1.67% (CFR) were analysed. Median age of patients was 64.5 years (IQR: 54-70) with 75% (n=75) Males. Among all deaths reported, 71 (71%) cases had one or more documented comorbidities at the time of diagnosis. Most frequently reported co-morbidities were; hypertension (67 %), followed by Diabetes Mellitus 945%) and Ischemic Heart Diseases (27%). First death was reported on 18 March 2020 and the most frequent presenting symptoms were shortness of breath (87%) and fever (79%). Median duration of illness was eight days (IQR: 4-11 days), the median delay reaching hospital to seek health care was three days (IQR: 0-6 days) while median duration of hospital stay was also three days (IQR: 1-7 days). Among all reported deaths, 62% were attributed to local transmission as these cases had no history of international travel. The most affected age group was 60-69 years while no death reported in age group below 20 years. Conclusion: High CFR among old age group and its association with co-morbidities (chronic disease) suggests targeted interventions such as social distancing and strict quarantine measure for elderly and morbid people. Comparative studies among deaths and recovered patients are recommended to explore further disease dynamics. Key words: COVID-19, Cases Fatality Rates, Co-morbidities, Epidemiology, Pakistan, Co-morbidities

negative: Analyzing the epidemiological outbreak of COVID‐19: A visual exploratory data analysis approach There is an obvious concern globally regarding the fact about the emerging coronavirus 2019 novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) as a worldwide public health threat. As the outbreak of COVID‐19 causes by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) progresses within China and beyond, rapidly available epidemiological data are needed to guide strategies for situational awareness and intervention. The recent outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China, caused by the SARS‐CoV‐2 emphasizes the importance of analyzing the epidemiological data of this novel virus and predicting their risks of infecting people all around the globe. In this study, we present an effort to compile and analyze epidemiological outbreak information on COVID‐19 based on the several open datasets on 2019‐nCoV provided by the Johns Hopkins University, World Health Organization, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Health Commission, and DXY. An exploratory data analysis with visualizations has been made to understand the number of different cases reported (confirmed, death, and recovered) in different provinces of China and outside of China. Overall, at the outset of an outbreak like this, it is highly important to readily provide information to begin the evaluation necessary to understand the risks and begin containment activities.

negative: Real time estimation of the risk of death from novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection: Inference using exported cases The exported cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection who were confirmed in other countries provide a chance to estimate the cumulative incidence and confirmed case fatality risk (cCFR) in China. Knowledge of the cCFR is critical to characterize the severity and understand pandemic potential of 2019-nCoV in the early stage of epidemic. Using the exponential growth rate of the incidence, the present study statistically estimated the cCFR and the basic reproduction number, i.e., the average number of secondary cases generated by a single primary case in a naive population. As of 24 January 2020, with 23 exported cases, and estimating the growth rate from 8 December 2019 (scenario 1) and using the data since growth of exported cases (scenario 2), the cumulative incidence in China was estimated at 5433 cases (95% confidence interval (CI): 3883, 7160) and 17780 cases (95% CI: 9646, 28724), respectively. The latest estimates of the cCFR were 4.6% (95% CI: 3.1-6.6) for scenario 1 and 7.7% (95% CI: 4.9-11.3%) for scenario 2, respectively. The basic reproduction number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI: 2.1, 2.3) and 3.7 (95% CI: 3.1, 4.3) for scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Based on the results, we note that current 2019-nCoV epidemic has a substation potential to cause a pandemic. The proposed approach can provide insights into early risk assessment using only publicly available data.

negative: Integrating public health and primary care. PURPOSE Improved health and social outcomes would be possible with better coordination and collaboration between public health and primary care. The purpose of this study is to identify linkages between these health sectors with the aim of informing a forward-looking policy approach to integrate public health functions in primary care. METHODS We searched national and international journals and the grey literature for relevant papers and reports published from January 1999 to December 2003. The final set of documents provided broad coverage of the topic, with emphasis on national and international representation and a special focus on disease surveillance, health promotion, accident and illness prevention and chronic diseases. RESULTS Three main findings emerged from this study. First, there is a need to understand and clearly articulate the roles and functions of public health and primary care in Canada. Second, the main areas of overlap between these sectors are health surveillance, health promotion and prevention of disease and injury. Third, based on an international literature search, we identified 10 models that demonstrate how these sectors can be integrated; five of them were developed in Canada. CONCLUSIONS National and international evidence and a variety of working models support the integration of public health functions in primary care. Canada has been a leader in developing models of integrated health systems that combine individualized approaches to influence personal health behaviour and community approaches to influence the health of the population. These integration models could be further developed through a focus on the common need of primary care and public health to address the health implications of the ever-present risk of emerging infectious diseases in Canada.

negative: Coronavirus Goes Viral: Quantifying the COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic on Twitter Background Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, misinformation has been spreading uninhibited over traditional and social media at a rapid pace. We sought to analyze the magnitude of misinformation that is being spread on Twitter (Twitter, Inc., San Francisco, CA) regarding the coronavirus epidemic. Materials and methods We conducted a search on Twitter using 14 different trending hashtags and keywords related to the COVID-19 epidemic. We then summarized and assessed individual tweets for misinformation in comparison to verified and peer-reviewed resources. Descriptive statistics were used to compare terms and hashtags, and to identify individual tweets and account characteristics. Results The study included 673 tweets. Most tweets were posted by informal individuals/groups (66%), and 129 (19.2%) belonged to verified Twitter accounts. The majority of included tweets contained serious content (91.2%); 548 tweets (81.4%) included genuine information pertaining to the COVID-19 epidemic. Around 70% of the tweets tackled medical/public health information, while the others were pertaining to sociopolitical and financial factors. In total, 153 tweets (24.8%) included misinformation, and 107 (17.4%) included unverifiable information regarding the COVID-19 epidemic. The rate of misinformation was higher among informal individual/group accounts (33.8%, p: <0.001). Tweets from unverified Twitter accounts contained more misinformation (31.0% vs 12.6% for verified accounts, p: <0.001). Tweets from healthcare/public health accounts had the lowest rate of unverifiable information (12.3%, p: 0.04). The number of likes and retweets per tweet was not associated with a difference in either false or unverifiable content. The keyword “COVID-19” had the lowest rate of misinformation and unverifiable information, while the keywords “#2019_ncov” and “Corona” were associated with the highest amount of misinformation and unverifiable content respectively. Conclusions Medical misinformation and unverifiable content pertaining to the global COVID-19 epidemic are being propagated at an alarming rate on social media. We provide an early quantification of the magnitude of misinformation spread and highlight the importance of early interventions in order to curb this phenomenon that endangers public safety at a time when awareness and appropriate preventive actions are paramount.

negative: COVID-19 as a Complex Intergovernmental Problem Federations increasingly face complex policy challenges, from managing climate change to mass migration. COVID-19 is a prime example of this emerging type of problem. This research note introduces the concept of complex intergovernmental problems (CIPs) to better understand these types of challenges.

negative: A Canadian Critical Care Trials Group project in collaboration with the international forum for acute care trialists - Collaborative H1N1 Adjuvant Treatment pilot trial (CHAT): study protocol and design of a randomized controlled trial BACKGROUND: Swine origin influenza A/H1N1 infection (H1N1) emerged in early 2009 and rapidly spread to humans. For most infected individuals, symptoms were mild and self-limited; however, a small number developed a more severe clinical syndrome characterized by profound respiratory failure with hospital mortality ranging from 10 to 30%. While supportive care and neuraminidase inhibitors are the main treatment for influenza, data from observational and interventional studies suggest that the course of influenza can be favorably influenced by agents not classically considered as influenza treatments. Multiple observational studies have suggested that HMGCoA reductase inhibitors (statins) can exert a class effect in attenuating inflammation. The Collaborative H1N1 Adjuvant Treatment (CHAT) Pilot Trial sought to investigate the feasibility of conducting a trial during a global pandemic in critically ill patients with H1N1 with the goal of informing the design of a larger trial powered to determine impact of statins on important outcomes. METHODS/DESIGN: A multi-national, pilot randomized controlled trial (RCT) of once daily enteral rosuvastatin versus matched placebo administered for 14 days for the treatment of critically ill patients with suspected, probable or confirmed H1N1 infection. We propose to randomize 80 critically ill adults with a moderate to high index of suspicion for H1N1 infection who require mechanical ventilation and have received antiviral therapy for ≤ 72 hours. Site investigators, research coordinators and clinical pharmacists will be blinded to treatment assignment. Only research pharmacy staff will be aware of treatment assignment. We propose several approaches to informed consent including a priori consent from the substitute decision maker (SDM), waived and deferred consent. The primary outcome of the CHAT trial is the proportion of eligible patients enrolled in the study. Secondary outcomes will evaluate adherence to medication administration regimens, the proportion of primary and secondary endpoints collected, the number of patients receiving open-label statins, consent withdrawals and the effect of approved consent models on recruitment rates. DISCUSSION: Several aspects of study design including the need to include central randomization, preserve allocation concealment, ensure study blinding compare to a matched placebo and the use novel consent models pose challenges to investigators conducting pandemic research. Moreover, study implementation requires that trial design be pragmatic and initiated in a short time period amidst uncertainty regarding the scope and duration of the pandemic. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN45190901

negative: 2019-nCoV (Wuhan virus), a novel Coronavirus: human-to-human transmission, travel-related cases, and vaccine readiness. On 31 December 2019 the Wuhan Health Commission reported a cluster of atypical pneumonia cases that was linked to a wet market in the city of Wuhan, China. The first patients began experiencing symptoms of illness in mid-December 2019. Clinical isolates were found to contain a novel coronavirus with similarity to bat coronaviruses. As of 28 January 2020, there are in excess of 4,500 laboratory-confirmed cases, with > 100 known deaths. As with the SARS-CoV, infections in children appear to be rare. Travel-related cases have been confirmed in multiple countries and regions outside mainland China including Germany, France, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Canada, and the United States, as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan. Domestically in China, the virus has also been noted in several cities and provinces with cases in all but one provinence. While zoonotic transmission appears to be the original source of infections, the most alarming development is that human-to-human transmission is now prevelant. Of particular concern is that many healthcare workers have been infected in the current epidemic. There are several critical clinical questions that need to be resolved, including how efficient is human-to-human transmission? What is the animal reservoir? Is there an intermediate animal reservoir? Do the vaccines generated to the SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV or their proteins offer protection against 2019-nCoV? We offer a research perspective on the next steps for the generation of vaccines. We also present data on the use of in silico docking in gaining insight into 2019-nCoV Spike-receptor binding to aid in therapeutic development. Diagnostic PCR protocols can be found at https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/laboratory-diagnostics-for-novel-coronavirus.

negative: Controlled, double-blind, randomized trial to assess the efficacy and safety of hydroxychloroquine chemoprophylaxis in SARS CoV2 infection in healthcare personnel in the hospital setting: A structured summary of a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 infection presents a high transmission in the group of health professionals in Spain (12-15% infected). Currently there is no accepted chemoprophylaxis but hydroxychloroquine (HDQ) is known to inhibit the coronavirus in vitro. Our hypothesis is that oral administration of hydroxychloroquine to healthcare professionals can reduce the incidence and prevalence of infection as well as its severity in this group. METHODS: Design: Prospective, single center, double blind, randomised, controlled trial (RCT). PARTICIPANTS: Adult health-care professionals (18-65 years) working in areas of high exposure and high risk of transmission of SARS-COV-2 (COVID areas, Intensive Care Unit -ICUs-, Emergency, Anesthesia and all those performing aerosol-generating procedures) will be included. Exclusion criteria include previous infection with SARS CoV2 (positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR or IgG serology), pregnancy or lactation, any contraindication to hydroxychloroquine or evidence of unstable or clinically significant systemic disease. INTERVENTIONS: Patients will be randomized (1:1) to receive once-daily oral Hydroxychloroquine 200mg for two months (HC group) or placebo (P group) in addition to the protective measures appropriate to the level of exposure established by the hospital. A serological evaluation will be carried out every 15 days with PCR in case of seroconversion, symptoms or risk exposure. Primary outcome is the percentage of subjects presenting infection (seroconversion and/or PCR +ve) by the SARS-Cov-2 virus during the observation period. Additionally, both the percentage of subjects in each group presenting Pneumonia with severity criteria (Curb 65 ≥2) and that of subjects requiring admission to ICU will be determined. DISCUSSION: While awaiting a vaccine, hygiene measures, social distancing and personal protective equipment are the only primary prophylaxis measures against SARS-CoV-2, but they have not been sufficient to protect our healthcare professionals. Some evidence of the in vitro efficacy of hydroxychloroquine against this virus is known, along with some clinical data that would support the study of this drug in the chemoprophylaxis of infection. However, there are still no data from controlled clinical trials in this regard. If our hypothesis is confirmed, hydroxychloroquine can help professionals fight this infection with more guarantees. PARTICIPANTS: This is a single-center study that will be carried out at the Marqués de Valdecilla University Hospital. 450 health professionals working at the Hospital Universitario Marqués de Valdecilla in areas of high exposure and high risk of transmission of SARS COV2 (COVID hospital areas, Intensive Care Unit, Emergency, Anesthesia and all those performing aerosol-generating procedures) will be included. INCLUSION CRITERIA: 1) Health professionals aged between 18 and 65 years (inclusive) at the time of the first screening visit; 2) They must provide signed written informed consent and agree to comply with the study protocol; 3) Active work in high exposure areas during the last two weeks and during the following weeks. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: 1) Previous infection with SARS CoV2 (positive coronavirus PCR or positive serology with SARS Cov2 negative PCR and absence of symptoms); 2) Current treatment with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine; 3) Hypersensitivity, allergy or any contraindication for taking hydroxychloroquine, in the technical sheet; 4) Previous or current treatment with tamoxifen or raloxifene; 5) Previous eye disease, especially maculopathy; 6) Known heart failure (Grade III to IV of the New York Heart Association classification) or prolonged QTc; 7) Any type of cancer (except basal cell) in the last 5 years; 6) Refusal to give informed consent; 8) Evidence of any other unstable or clinically significant untreated immune, endocrine, hematological, gastrointestinal, neurological, neoplastic or psychiatric illness; 9) Antibodies positive for the human immunodeficiency virus; 10) Significant kidney or liver disease; 11) Pregnancy or lactation. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: Two groups will be analyzed with a 1: 1 randomization rate. 1)Intervention: (n = 225): One 200 mg hydroxychloroquine sulfate coated tablet once daily for two months.2)Comparator (control group) (n = 225): One hydroxychloroquine placebo tablet (identical to that of the drug) once daily for two months MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary outcome of this study will be to evaluate: number and percentage of healthcare personnel presenting symptomatic and asymptomatic infection (see "Diagnosis of SARS CoV2 infection" below) by the SARS-Cov2 virus during the study observation period (8 weeks) in both treatment arms;number and percentage of healthcare personnel in each group presenting with Pneumonia with severity criteria (Curb 65 ≥2) and number and percentage of healthcare personnel requiring admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) in both treatment arms. DIAGNOSIS OF SARS COV2 INFECTION: Determination of IgA, IgM and IgG type antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using the Anti-SARS-CoV-2 ELISA kit (EUROIMMUN Medizinische Labordiagnostika AG, Germany) every two weeks. In cases of seroconversion, a SARS-CoV-2 PCR will be performed to rule out / confirm an active infection (RT-PCR in One Step: RT performed with mastermix (Takara) and IDT probes, following protocol published and validated by the CDC Evaluation of COVID-19 in case of SARS-CoV-2 infection RANDOMISATION: Participants will be allocated to intervention and comparator groups according to a balanced randomization scheme (1: 1). The assignment will be made through a computer-generated numeric sequence for all participants BLINDING (MASKING): Both participants and investigators responsible for recruiting and monitoring participants will be blind to the assigned arm. NUMBERS TO BE RANDOMISED (SAMPLE SIZE): Taking into account the current high prevalence of infection in healthcare personnel in Spain (up to 15%), to detect a difference equal to or greater than 8% in the percentage estimates through a two-tailed 95% CI, with a statistical power of 80% and a dropout rate of 5%, a total of 450 participants will need to be included (250 in each arm). TRIAL STATUS: The protocol approved by the health authorities in Spain (Spanish Agency for Medicines and Health Products "AEMPS") and the Ethics and Research Committee of Cantabria (CEIm Cantabria) corresponds to version 1.1 of April 2, 2020. Currently, recruitment has not yet started, with the start scheduled for the second week of May 2020. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Eudra CT number: 2020-001704-42 (Registered on 29 March 2020) FULL PROTOCOL: The full protocol is attached as an additional file, accessible from the Trials website (Additional file 1). In the interest in expediting dissemination of this material, the familiar formatting has been eliminated; this Letter serves as a summary of the key elements of the full protocol. The study protocol has been reported in accordance with the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Clinical Interventional Trials (SPIRIT) guidelines (Additional file 2).

negative: Global transmission network of SARS-CoV-2: from outbreak to pandemic BACKGROUND. The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is straining health systems around the world. Although the Chinese government implemented a number of severe restrictions on people’s movement in an attempt to contain its local and international spread, the virus had already reached many areas of the world in part due to its potent transmissibility and the fact that a substantial fraction of infected individuals develop little or no symptoms at all. Following its emergence, the virus started to generate sustained transmission in neighboring countries in Asia, Western Europe, Australia, Canada and the United States, and finally in South America and Africa. As the virus continues its global spread, a clear and evidence-based understanding of properties and dynamics of the global transmission network of SARS-CoV-2 is essential to design and put in place efficient and globally coordinated interventions. METHODS. We employ molecular surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics for inference and comprehensive analysis of its global transmission network before the pandemic declaration. Our goal was to characterize the spatial-temporal transmission pathways that led to the establishment of the pandemic. We exploited a network-based approach specifically tailored to emerging outbreak settings. Specifically, it traces the accumulation of mutations in viral genomic variants via mutation trees, which are then used to infer transmission networks, revealing an up-to-date picture of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 between and within countries and geographic regions. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS. The analysis suggest multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into the majority of world regions by means of heterogeneous transmission pathways. The transmission network is scale-free, with a few genomic variants responsible for the majority of possible transmissions. The network structure is in line with the available temporal information represented by sample collection times and suggest the expected sampling time difference of few days between potential transmission pairs. The inferred network structural properties, transmission clusters and pathways and virus introduction routes emphasize the extent of the global epidemiological linkage and demonstrate the importance of internationally coordinated public health measures.

negative: Trends of SARS-Cov-2 infection in 67 countries: Role of climate zone, temperature, humidity and curve behavior of cumulative frequency on duplication time Summary Objective. To analyze the role of temperature, humidity, date of first case diagnosed (DFC) and the behavior of the growth-curve of cumulative frequency (CF) [number of days to rise (DCS) and reach the first 100 cases (D100), and the difference between them (ΔDD)] with the doubling time (Td) of Covid-19 cases in 67 countries grouped by climate zone. Design. Retrospective incident case study. Setting. WHO based register of cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases. Participants. 1,706,914 subjects diagnosed between 12-29-2019 and 4-15-2020. Exposures. SARS-Cov-2 virus, ambient humidity, temperature and climate areas (temperate, tropical/subtropical). Main outcome measures. Comparison of DCS, D100, ΔDD, DFC, humidity, temperature, Td for the first (Td10) and second (Td20) ten days of the CF growth-curve between countries according to climate zone, and identification of factors involved in Td, as well as predictors of CF using lineal regression models. Results. Td10 and Td20 were ≥3 days longer in tropical/subtropical vs. temperate areas (2.8[plusmn]1.2 vs. 5.7[plusmn]3.4; p=1.41E-05 and 4.6[plusmn]1.8 vs. 8.6[plusmn]4.2; p=9.7E-05, respectively). The factors involved in Td10 (DFC and ΔDD) were different than those in Td20 (Td10 and climate areas). After D100, the fastest growth-curves during the first 10 days, were associated with Td10<2 and Td10<3 in temperate and tropical/subtropical countries, respectively. The fold change Td20/Td10 >2 was associated with earlier flattening of the growth-curve. In multivariate models, Td10, DFC and ambient temperature were negatively related with CF and explained 44.7% (r2 = 0.447) of CF variability at day 20 of the growth-curve, while Td20 and DFC were negatively related with CF and explained 63.8% (r2 = 0.638) of CF variability towards day 30 of the growth-curve. Conclusions. The larger Td in tropical/subtropical countries is positively related to DFC and temperature. Td and environmental factors explain 64% of CF variability in the best of cases. Therefore, other factors, such as pandemic containment measures, would explain the remaining variability.

negative: The Post-Modern Era: Chronic Disease and the Onslaught of a Sedentary Lifestyle New technologies have speeded research in many areas of Exercise Science during the Post-Modern Era. Political interest in physical fitness and sport remains spasmodic, but the U.S. has finally introduced a scheme of universal health insurance. The cardiovascular disease epidemic is partially contained, but obesity and diabetes show a growing prevalence. Consensus conferences have underlined both the safety and the health benefits of physical activity and disease, and Universities offer an increasing range of doctoral programmes in Exercise Sciences and Kinesiology. However, optimal evidence-based exercise prescriptions have yet to be defined for many conditions. Health and fitness landmarks over the past 50 years include the standardization of test methodology, development of tools for population screening and testing, completion of representative National Health and Fitness surveys, quasi-experimental evaluations of school and employee fitness programmes, definition of minimum occupational fitness needs, demonstration of the beneficial effects of exercise on the aging process, and documentation of the high fitness levels associated with a hunter-gatherer lifestyle. Attempts to increase physical activity in the general population have as yet had only modest success. In Public Schools, the emphasis of Physical Educators is shifting from the training of sports teams to the teaching of life-long exercise skills. International sports programmes have received ever growing support from governments and commercial sponsors, with a multiplication of the corresponding professional associations. Olympic and Masters Games now cater to women, athletes with disability and the elderly, but athletic competition has lost much of its earlier idealism, and any positive impact upon population health and fitness is limited.

negative: Tackling Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID 19) in Workplaces Coronaviruses are zoonotic viruses and six species of Coronaviruses are known to cause human disease such as cause common cold, severe acute respiratory syndrome and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. In January 2020, scientists in Wuhan, China isolated a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), responsible for an outbreak of unknown pneumonia that had not been previously reported among humans. This virus spreads from person to person, through respiratory droplets, close contact, and by touching surfaces or objects contaminated by the virus. The incubation period varies between 2 days and 14 days. Symptoms usually include fever, cough, difficulty in breathing, pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome. Older age and co-morbid conditions increase the fatality. Any person with a history of travel to and from COVID-19 affected countries in the past 14 days or any person who has had close contact with a laboratory confirmed COVID-19 are suspect cases and needs evaluation. Currently no vaccine is available and treatment is mainly supportive. Measures at workplace should include- avoiding non-essential travel, identifying and isolating sick employees at the earliest, hand hygiene, respiratory hygiene, environmental hygiene and social distancing.

negative: COVID-19, extractive industries, and indigenous communities in Canada: Notes towards a political economy research agenda As the economic ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to unfold, it is becoming increasingly apparent that this crisis will have significant and lasting implications for the relationship between extractive industries and Indigenous communities. Using a case study from Canada, this paper examines how the political dynamics of industry-Indigenous relations have changed and speculates about how these dynamics might continue to change in the future. The economic crisis has already intensified political conflicts and struggles between Indigenous peoples and mining, oil, and gas companies. We identify and discuss four points of conflict between Indigenous communities and extractive industries that have become more acute as a result of the current economic crisis. It is important for researchers to pay close attention to how these conflicts are affected by the pandemic, in order to help Indigenous communities develop strategies to cope with changes in industry-Indigenous relations.

negative: The 2003 SARS outbreak and its impact on infection control practices Summary Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) emerged recently as a new infectious disease that was transmitted efficiently in the healthcare setting and particularly affected healthcare workers (HCWs), patients and visitors. The efficiency of transmission within healthcare facilities was recognised following significant hospital outbreaks of SARS in Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam. The causative agent of SARS was identified as a novel coronavirus, the SARS coronavirus. This was largely spread by direct or indirect contact with large respiratory droplets, although airborne transmission has also been reported. High infection rates among HCWs led initially to the theory that SARS was highly contagious and the concept of ‘super-spreading events’. Such events illustrated that lack of infection control (IC) measures or failure to comply with IC precautions could lead to large-scale hospital outbreaks. SARS was eventually contained by the stringent application of IC measures that limited exposure of HCWs to potentially infectious individuals. As the ‘global village’ becomes smaller and other microbial threats to health emerge, or re-emerge, there is an urgent need to develop a global strategy for infection control in hospitals. This paper provides an overview of the main IC practices employed during the 2003 SARS outbreak, including management measures, dedicated SARS hospitals, personal protective equipment, isolation, handwashing, environmental decontamination, education and training. The psychological and psychosocial impact on HCWs during the outbreak are also discussed. Requirements for IC programmes in the post-SARS period are proposed based on the major lessons learnt from the SARS outbreak.

negative: Interferon-λ: immune functions at barrier surfaces and beyond When type III interferon (IFN-λ; also known as interleukin-28 (IL-28) and IL-29) was discovered in 2003, its antiviral function was expected to be analogous to the type I IFNs (IFN-α and IFN-β), via the induction of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs). While IFN-λ stimulates expression of antiviral ISGs preferentially in cells of epithelial origin, recent studies have defined additional antiviral mechanisms in other cell types and tissues. Models of viral infection using mice lacking IFN-λ signaling and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) associations with human disease have expanded our understanding of the contribution of IFN-λ to the antiviral response at anatomic barriers and the immune response beyond these barriers. In this review, we highlight recent insights into the functions of IFN-λ, including its ability to restrict virus spread into the brain and to clear chronic viral infections in the gastrointestinal tract. We also discuss how IFN-λ modulates innate and adaptive immunity, autoimmunity, and tumor progression and its possible therapeutic applications in human disease.

negative: Cryo-EM structure of infectious bronchitis coronavirus spike protein reveals structural and functional evolution of coronavirus spike proteins As cell-invading molecular machinery, coronavirus spike proteins pose an evolutionary conundrum due to their high divergence. In this study, we determined the cryo-EM structure of avian infectious bronchitis coronavirus (IBV) spike protein from the γ-genus. The trimeric IBV spike ectodomain contains three receptor-binding S1 heads and a trimeric membrane-fusion S2 stalk. While IBV S2 is structurally similar to those from the other genera, IBV S1 possesses structural features that are unique to different other genera, thereby bridging these diverse spikes into an evolutionary spectrum. Specifically, among different genera, the two domains of S1, the N-terminal domain (S1-NTD) and C-terminal domain (S1-CTD), diverge from simpler tertiary structures and quaternary packing to more complex ones, leading to different functions of the spikes in receptor usage and membrane fusion. Based on the above structural and functional comparisons, we propose that the evolutionary spectrum of coronavirus spikes follows the order of α-, δ-, γ-, and β-genus. This study has provided insight into the evolutionary relationships among coronavirus spikes and deepened our understanding of their structural and functional diversity.

negative: Plasma Metabolomic and Lipidomic Alterations Associated with COVID-19 The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global public health crisis. COVID-19 is marked by its rapid progression from mild to severe conditions, particularly in the absence of adequate medical care. However, the physiological changes associated with COVID-19 are barely understood. In this study, we performed untargeted metabolomic and lipidomic analyses of plasma from a cohort of COVID-19 patients who had experienced different symptoms. We found the metabolite and lipid alterations exhibit apparent correlation with the course of disease in these COVID-19 patients, indicating that the development of COVID-19 affected patient metabolism. Moreover, many of the metabolite and lipid alterations, particularly ones associated with hepatic functions, have been found to align with the progress and severity of COVID-19. This work provides valuable knowledge about blood biomarkers associated with COVID-19 and potential therapeutic targets, and presents important resource for further studies of COVID-19 pathogenesis.

negative: ElaD, a Deubiquitinating Protease Expressed by E. coli BACKGROUND: Ubiquitin and ubiquitin-like proteins (Ubl) are designed to modify polypeptides in eukaryotes. Covalent binding of ubiquitin or Ubls to substrate proteins can be reversed by specific hydrolases. One particular set of cysteine proteases, the CE clan, which targets ubiquitin and Ubls, has homologs in eukaryotes, prokaryotes, and viruses. FINDINGS: We have cloned and analyzed the E. coli protein elaD, which is distantly related to eukaryotic CE clan members of the ULP/SENP protease family that are specific for SUMO and Nedd8. Previously misannotated as a putative sulfatase/phosphatase, elaD is an efficient and specific deubiquitinating enzyme in vitro. Interestingly, elaD is present in all intestinal pathogenic E. coli strains, but conspicuously absent from extraintestinal pathogenic strains (ExPECs). Further homologs of this protease can be found in Acanthamoeba Polyphaga Mimivirus, and in Alpha-, Beta-and Gammaproteobacteria. CONCLUSION: The expression of ULP/SENP-related hydrolases in bacteria therefore extends to plant pathogens and medically relevant strains of Escherichia coli, Legionella pneumophila, Rickettsiae, Chlamydiae, and Salmonellae, in which the elaD ortholog sseL has recently been identified as a virulence factor with deubiquitinating activity. As a counterpoint, our phylogenetic and functional examination reveals that ancient eukaryotic ULP/SENP proteases also have the potential of ubiquitin-specific hydrolysis, suggesting an early common origin of this peptidase clan.

negative: LxxIxE-like Motif in Spike Protein of SARS-CoV-2 that is Known to Recruit the Host PP2A-B56 Phosphatase Mimics Artepillin C, an Immunomodulator, of Brazilian Green Propolis SARS-CoV-2 is highly contagious and can cause acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multiple organ failure that are largely attributed to the cytokine storm. The surface coronavirus spike (S) glycoprotein is considered as a key factor in host specificity because it mediates infection by receptor-recognition and membrane fusion. Here, the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 S protein revealed two B56-binding LxxIxE-like motifs in S1 and S2 subunits that could recruit the host protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A). The motif in S1 subunit is absent in SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Phosphatases and kinases are major players in the regulation of pro-inflammatory responses during pathogenic infections. Moreover, studies have shown that viruses target PP2A in order to manipulate host’s antiviral responses. Recent researches have indicated that SARS-CoV-2 is involved in sustained host inflammation. Therefore, by controlling acute inflammation, it is possible to eliminate its dangerous effects on the host. Among efforts to fight COVID-19, the interaction between LxxIxE-like motif and the PP2A-B56-binding pocket could be a target for the discovery and/or development of a bioactive ligand inhibitor for therapeutic purposes. Indeed, a small molecule called Artepillin C (ArtC), a main compound in Brazilian honeybee green propolis, mimics the side chains of LxxLxE motif. Importantly, ArtC is known, among other effects, to have anti-inflammatory activity that makes it an excellent candidate for future clinical trials in COVID-19 patients.

negative: Impact of COVID-19 on maxillofacial surgery practice: a worldwide survey Abstract The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly changing our habits. To date, April 12, 2020, the virus has reached 209 nations, affecting 1.8 million people and causing more than 110,000 deaths. Maxillofacial surgery represents an example of a specialty that has had to adapt to this outbreak, because of the subspecialties of oncology and traumatology. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this outbreak on the specialty of maxillofacial surgery and how the current situation is being managed on a worldwide scale. To achieve this goal, the authors developed an anonymous questionnaire which was posted on the internet and also sent to maxillofacial surgeons around the globe using membership lists from various subspecialty associations. The questionnaire asked for information about the COVID-19 situation in the respondent’s country and in their workplace, and what changes they were facing in their practices in light of the outbreak. The objective was not only to collect and analyse data, but also to highlight what the specialty is facing and how it is handling the situation, in the hope that this information will be useful as a reference in the future, not only for this specialty, but also for others, should COVID-19 or a similar global threat arise again.

negative: COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research Abstract This paper highlights the enormous economic and social impact of COVID-19 with respect to articles that have either prognosticated such a large-scale event, and its economic consequences, or have assessed the impacts of other epidemics and pandemics. A consideration of possible impacts of COVID-19 on financial markets and institutions, either directly or indirectly, is briefly outlined by drawing on a variety of literatures. A consideration of the characteristics of COVID-19, along with what research suggests have been the impacts of other past events that in some ways roughly parallel COVID-19, points toward avenues of future investigation.

negative: Communicable Diseases, Globalization of This article examines the spatial distribution of leading infectious causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Beginning with simple models explaining the spatial pattern of infectious diseases, the epidemiologic transition, and disease ecology models, the article focuses on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, polio, SARS, and influenza as well as sexually transmitted infections such as gonorrhea. It addresses the problem of disease strain mutation and especially drug resistance, and argues for the application of genotyping in medical geography research. The article emphasizes how migration and increased global interaction are producing a globalization of infectious diseases while at the same time, ethnic residential segregation is producing spatial concentrations of infectious disease or different strains of disease.

negative: Who should wear a face mask? Experts weigh in on Canada's COVID-19 response.

negative: COVID‐19 impact on fruit and vegetable markets Canadian fruit and vegetable markets were significantly impacted by the spread of the novel coronavirus SARS‐CoV‐2 (and COVID‐19 disease), beginning in March 2020. Due to the closure of restaurants, bars, and schools, produce growers and distributors were forced to shift supplies almost entirely from the foodservice to the retail channel. Shippers reported labor and logistical constraints in making the change, but the fresh produce supply chain remained robust. In the long term, we expect lasting changes in consumers’ online food‐purchasing habits, heightened constraints on immigrant labor markets, and tighter concentration in fresh produce distribution and perhaps retailing.

negative: COVOID-19 and Long-Term Care Policy for Older People in Canada. Older people are especially vulnerable to COVID-19, including and especially people living in long-term care facilities. In this Perspective, we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care policy in Canada. More specifically, we use the example of recent developments in Quebec, where a tragedy in a specific facility is acting as a dramatic "focusing event". It draws attention to the problems facing long-term care facilities, considering existing policy legacies and the opening of a "policy window" that may facilitate comprehensive reforms in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Experimental and numerical investigation of micro-environmental conditions in public transportation buses Abstract This study examines both numerically and experimentally the micro-environmental conditions in public transportation buses. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was developed and experimentally validated. The developed CFD model was used to calculate the spatial distributions of the mean age and mean residual lifetime of air in the bus environment and evaluate the efficiency of the bus ventilation system. Additionally, the passengers’ exposures to a variety of environmental conditions were experimentally monitored in “real world” field campaigns using the Harvard University shuttle bus system. Real time continuous monitoring systems were used to assess indoor environmental quality in the buses. It was found that CO levels were very low, while the levels of particulate matter varied and were influenced by the ambient air penetrated into the bus through the operation of the doors and the ventilation system. The CO2 level was found elevated and greatly affected by occupancy conditions. The elevated CO2 level indicates that the current bus ventilation is insufficient to dilute air pollutants in the bus especially under heavy occupancy conditions. This lack of sufficient ventilation indicates an elevated risk for airborne transmitted diseases in such a popular public transportation system.

negative: COVID-19, Mental Health and Aging: A Need for New Knowledge to Bridge Science and Service

negative: An international comparison analysis of reserve and supply system for emergency medical supplies between China, the United States, Australia, and Canada. Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic around the world. With the explosive growth of confirmed cases, emergency medical supplies are facing global shortage, which restricts the treatment of seriously ill patients and protection of medical staff. Taking China, the United States, Australia, and Canada as examples, this study compares and analyzes the reserve and supply systems of emergency medical supplies and problems exposed in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. Some common problems were found, such as insufficient types and quantities of emergency medical supplies in reserve, insufficient emergency production capacity, and imperfect command mechanism for emergency supplies deployment and transportation. A sound reserve system of emergency medical supplies is the basis and guarantee for dealing with public health emergencies such as major outbreaks. Based on the comparison of systems and practical experience, countries around the world should further improve the reserve and supply system of emergency medical supplies, and improve the coordination and cooperation mechanism for emergency supplies for international public health emergencies, so as to cope with increasingly severe public health emergencies in the context of globalization.

negative: Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator-days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months Key Points Question: Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each state in the United States? Findings: Using a statistical model, we predict excess demand will be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,380 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,955) ICU beds at the peak of COVID-19. Peak ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674) ventilators. Peak demand will be in the second week of April. We estimate 81,114 (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) deaths in the United States from COVID-19 over the next 4 months. Meaning: Even with social distancing measures enacted and sustained, the peak demand for hospital services due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely going to exceed capacity substantially. Alongside the implementation and enforcement of social distancing measures, there is an urgent need to develop and implement plans to reduce non-COVID-19 demand for and temporarily increase capacity of health facilities. Abstract Importance: This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US. Objective: To determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months. Exposure(s): COVID-19. Main outcome(s) and measure(s): Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use. Results: Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,380 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,955) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will a total of 81,114 (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) deaths from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6. Conclusions and Relevance: In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

negative: Global research trends of World Health Organization’s top eight emerging pathogens BACKGROUND: On December 8(th), 2015, World Health Organization published a priority list of eight pathogens expected to cause severe outbreaks in the near future. To better understand global research trends and characteristics of publications on these emerging pathogens, we carried out this bibliometric study hoping to contribute to global awareness and preparedness toward this topic. METHOD: Scopus database was searched for the following pathogens/infectious diseases: Ebola, Marburg, Lassa, Rift valley, Crimean-Congo, Nipah, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Severe Respiratory Acute Syndrome (SARS). Retrieved articles were analyzed to obtain standard bibliometric indicators. RESULTS: A total of 8619 journal articles were retrieved. Authors from 154 different countries contributed to publishing these articles. Two peaks of publications, an early one for SARS and a late one for Ebola, were observed. Retrieved articles received a total of 221,606 citations with a mean ± standard deviation of 25.7 ± 65.4 citations per article and an h-index of 173. International collaboration was as high as 86.9%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had the highest share (344; 5.0%) followed by the University of Hong Kong with 305 (4.5%). The top leading journal was Journal of Virology with 572 (6.6%) articles while Feldmann, Heinz R. was the most productive researcher with 197 (2.3%) articles. China ranked first on SARS, Turkey ranked first on Crimean-Congo fever, while the United States of America ranked first on the remaining six diseases. Of retrieved articles, 472 (5.5%) were on vaccine – related research with Ebola vaccine being most studied. CONCLUSION: Number of publications on studied pathogens showed sudden dramatic rise in the past two decades representing severe global outbreaks. Contribution of a large number of different countries and the relatively high h-index are indicative of how international collaboration can create common health agenda among distant different countries.

negative: Las enseñanzas del síndrome respiratorio agudo grave

negative: Characteristics of respiratory viral infections during influenza season in Canadian Hutterite Communities Please cite this paper as: Kim et al. (2012) Characteristics of respiratory viral infections during influenza season in Canadian Hutterite Communities. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses DOI:10.1111/irv.12021. Objectives: To determined the pathogen‐specific incidence of respiratory virus infection in Hutterite communities occurring over the 2008–2009 influenza season and assess temporal characteristics of respiratory illness related to infection. Methods: 3273 participants community members enrolled in a cluster randomized trial of influenza vaccine were studied. Results: One hundred forty‐nine participants had laboratory‐confirmed influenza, and 595 had at least one episode of laboratory‐confirmed respiratory viral infection other than influenza. Entero/rhinovirus had the highest incidence among children <5 years. Conclusions: A decline in the incidence of infections with age was observed for influenza as well as for most other respiratory viruses.

negative: Geographical tracking and mapping of coronavirus disease COVID-19/severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic and associated events around the world: how 21st century GIS technologies are supporting the global fight against outbreaks and epidemics In December 2019, a new virus (initially called ‘Novel Coronavirus 2019-nCoV’ and later renamed to SARS-CoV-2) causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (coronavirus disease COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and rapidly spread to other parts of China and other countries around the world, despite China’s massive efforts to contain the disease within Hubei. As with the original SARS-CoV epidemic of 2002/2003 and with seasonal influenza, geographic information systems and methods, including, among other application possibilities, online real-or near-real-time mapping of disease cases and of social media reactions to disease spread, predictive risk mapping using population travel data, and tracing and mapping super-spreader trajectories and contacts across space and time, are proving indispensable for timely and effective epidemic monitoring and response. This paper offers pointers to, and describes, a range of practical online/mobile GIS and mapping dashboards and applications for tracking the 2019/2020 coronavirus epidemic and associated events as they unfold around the world. Some of these dashboards and applications are receiving data updates in near-real-time (at the time of writing), and one of them is meant for individual users (in China) to check if the app user has had any close contact with a person confirmed or suspected to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the recent past. We also discuss additional ways GIS can support the fight against infectious disease outbreaks and epidemics.

negative: COVID-19: A promising cure for the global panic Abstract The novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2, which is the causative agent of a potentially fatal disease that is of great global public health concern. The outbreak of COVID-19 is wreaking havoc worldwide due to inadequate risk assessment regarding the urgency of the situation. The COVID-19 pandemic has entered a dangerous new phase. When compared with SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has spread more rapidly, due to increased globalization and adaptation of the virus in every environment. Slowing the spread of the COVID-19 cases will significantly reduce the strain on the healthcare system of the country by limiting the number of people who are severely sick by COVID-19 and need hospital care. Hence, the recent outburst of COVID-19 highlights an urgent need for therapeutics targeting SARS-CoV-2. Here, we have discussed the structure of virus; varying symptoms among COVID-19, SARS, MERS and common flu; the probable mechanism behind the infection and its immune response. Further, the current treatment options, drugs available, ongoing trials and recent diagnostics for COVID-19 have been discussed. We suggest traditional Indian medicinal plants as possible novel therapeutic approaches, exclusively targeting SARS-CoV-2 and its pathways.

negative: Complete genomic sequence of turkey coronavirus Abstract Turkey coronavirus (TCoV), one of the least characterized of all known coronaviruses, was isolated from an outbreak of acute enteritis in young turkeys in Ontario, Canada, and the full-length genomic sequence was determined. The full-length genome was 27,632 nucleotides plus the 3′ poly(A) tail. Two open reading frames, ORFs 1a and 1b, resided in the first two thirds of the genome, and nine additional downstream ORFs were identified. A gene for hemagglutinin-esterase was absent in TCoV. The region between the membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N) protein genes contained three potential small ORFs: ORF-X, a previously uncharacterized ORF with an associated putative TRS within the M gene (apparently shared among all group III coronaviruses), and previously described ORFs 5a and 5b. The TCoV genome is organized as follows: 5′ UTR – replicase (ORFs 1a, 1b) – spike (S) protein – ORF3 (ORFs 3a, 3b) – small envelop (E or 3c) protein – membrane (M) protein – ORF5 (ORFs X, 5a, 5b) – nucleocapsid (N) protein −3′ UTR – poly(A). TCoV genome structure and sequence was most similar, but distinct from, avian infectious bronchitis virus (IBV). This is the first complete genome sequence for a TCoV and confirms that TCoV belongs to group III coronaviruses.

negative: Chapter 8 The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus: An Emerging Virus of Global Threat Abstract Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus (CoV), first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Since then, almost 2000 cases have been reported from 27 countries, with Saudi Arabia being the epicenter. This newly emerging virus is highly pathogenic and has a case mortality rate of 35%. It is similar to the CoV causing severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) in that both belong to the genus beta CoVs that are of zoonotic origin and cause lower respiratory infection. The natural reservoir for MERS-CoV remains unknown. Serological studies indicate that most dromedary camels in the Middle East have been infected with this virus, and they maybe the potential intermediate host. However, the mode of transmission from camels to humans is poorly understood. The majority of confirmed human cases have resulted from human-to-human transmission, most probably via respiratory route. Patients most at risk of developing severe MERS-CoV infection appear to be those with underlying conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, cardiac diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancer. Unlike SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV is considered an ongoing public health problem, particularly for the Middle East region. In this chapter, we outline the prevailing information regarding the emergence and epidemiology of this virus, its mode of transmission and pathogenicity, its clinical features, and the potential strategies for prevention.

negative: Hospitalization time and outcome in patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): analysis data from China Objective: The mean hospitalization time and outcome among patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was estimated with the purpose of providing evidence for decision-making in medical institutions and governments in epidemic areas. Method：The data of COVID-19 patients in china were collected from the websites of provincial and municipal health commissions. The mean hospitalization time and mortality in the mild or severe patients and the mean time from severe to mild illness were calculated by Gaussian mixture modeling. Results: The mean hospitalization time among mild patients in Hubei province, other areas except Hubei province, and the national areas was 20.71 ± 9.30, 16.86 ± 8.24, and 19.34 ± 9.29 days, respectively. The mean transition time from severe to mild illness in the above three areas were 15.00, 17.00, and 14.99 days, respectively. The death rate of mild and severe patients in Hubei province and the national areas were 1.10% and 18.14%, and 1.10% and 17.70%, respectively. Among those patients who died of COVID-19, the mean time from severe transition to death in Hubei province and the national areas was 6.22 ± 5.12 and 6.35 ± 5.27 days, respectively. Conclusion: There were regional differences in the average length of stay between Hubei province and other regions, which may be related to different medical configurations. For those severe patients who died of COVID-19, the average time from hospitalization to death was about one week, and proper and effective treatments in the first week were critical.

negative: Spanish Economic-Financial Crisis: Social and Academic Interest The present study analyses the interest of both experts and the general population in the economic-financial crisis that has affected Spain up until 2019. To examine the interest of the general users, Google searches were analysed through the Google Trends tool. Meanwhile, the interest of scholars was assessed through the analysis of academic papers published on Scopus, one of the most relevant peer reviewed literature database. To this end, a Scopus search was made for papers containing the fragment “Spanish financial crisis” on their tittles, abstracts, or keywords, which ensued a sample of 632 studies. Findings show that the Spanish financial crisis worries the general population as well as scholars. Peaks in searches by general internet users take place in the years preceding the crisis (2004 and 2005) as well as throughout its duration (2008, 2010, and 2012). Accordingly, the academic interest has also grown substantially up from 2008.

negative: Assessing the risks of "infodemics" in response to COVID-19 epidemics Our society is built on a complex web of interdependencies whose effects become manifest during extraordinary events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, with shocks in one system propagating to the others to an exceptional extent. We analyzed more than 100 millions Twitter messages posted worldwide in 64 languages during the epidemic emergency due to SARS-CoV-2 and classified the reliability of news diffused. We found that waves of unreliable and low-quality information anticipate the epidemic ones, exposing entire countries to irrational social behavior and serious threats for public health. When the epidemics hit the same area, reliable information is quickly inoculated, like antibodies, and the system shifts focus towards certified informational sources. Contrary to mainstream beliefs, we show that human response to falsehood exhibits early-warning signals that might be mitigated with adequate communication strategies.

negative: Molecular diversity of coronaviruses in bats Abstract The existence of coronaviruses in bats is unknown until the recent discovery of bat-SARS-CoV in Chinese horseshoe bats and a novel group 1 coronavirus in other bat species. Among 309 bats of 13 species captured from 20 different locations in rural areas of Hong Kong over a 16-month period, coronaviruses were amplified from anal swabs of 37 (12%) bats by RT-PCR. Phylogenetic analysis of RNA-dependent-RNA-polymerase (pol) and helicase genes revealed six novel coronaviruses from six different bat species, in addition to the two previously described coronaviruses. Among the six novel coronaviruses, four were group 1 coronaviruses (bat-CoV HKU2 from Chinese horseshoe bat, bat-CoV HKU6 from rickett's big-footed bat, bat-CoV HKU7 from greater bent-winged bat and bat-CoV HKU8 from lesser bent-winged bat) and two were group 2 coronaviruses (bat-CoV HKU4 from lesser bamboo bats and bat-CoV HKU5 from Japanese pipistrelles). An astonishing diversity of coronaviruses was observed in bats.

negative: Current status of treatment for 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia/ 中华微生物学和免疫学杂志 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a new member of coronavirus family that can cause serious respiratory diseases after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV). At present, there is no specific antiviral drug targeting 2019-nCoV. In facing of the increasingly serious epidemic of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia and the urgent needs in drug treatment strategies, this paper reviewed the current research situation and progress in antiviral treatment for the newly identified disease.

negative: Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic. Background: Cardiovascular diseases(CVD) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection(COVID-19), but there are concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both direct, through infection, and indirect, through changes in healthcare. Methods: We used population-based electronic health records from 3,862,012 individuals in England to estimate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality risk(direct effect) for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated: (i)pre-COVID-19 risk by age, sex and comorbidities, (ii)estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and (iii)estimated relative impact of COVID-19 on mortality(relative risk, RR: 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0). For indirect effects, we analysed weekly mortality and emergency department data for England/Wales and monthly hospital data from England(n=2), China(n=5) and Italy(n=1) for CVD referral, diagnosis and treatment until 1 May 2020. Findings: CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy and England during the pandemic. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown, and is still reduced in Italy and England. Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous(peak RR 1.4). For total CVD(incident and prevalent), at 10% population COVID-19 rate, we estimated direct impact of 31,205 and 62,410 excess deaths in England at RR 1.5 and 2.0 respectively, and indirect effect of 49932 to 99865 excess deaths. Interpretation: Supply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Regaining perspective on SARS-CoV-2 molecular tracing and its implications During the past three months, a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic has been growing exponentially, affecting over 100 thousand people worldwide, and causing enormous distress to economies and societies of affected countries. A plethora of analyses based on viral sequences has already been published, in scientific journals as well as through non-peer reviewed channels, to investigate SARS-CoV-2 genetic heterogeneity and spatiotemporal dissemination. We examined all full genome sequences currently available to assess the presence of sufficient information for reliable phylogenetic and phylogeographic studies. Our analysis clearly shows severe limitations in the present data, in light of which any finding should be considered, at the very best, preliminary and hypothesis-generating. Hence the need for avoiding stigmatization based on partial information, and for continuing concerted efforts to increase number and quality of the sequences required for robust tracing of the epidemic.

negative: The deadly coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China Abstract The 2019-nCoV is officially called SARS-CoV-2 and the disease is named COVID-19. This viral epidemic in China has led to the deaths of over 1800 people, mostly elderly or those with an underlying chronic disease or immunosuppressed state. This is the third serious Coronavirus outbreak in less than 20 years, following SARS in 2002–2003 and MERS in 2012. While human strains of Coronavirus are associated with about 15% of cases of the common cold, the SARS-CoV-2 may present with varying degrees of severity, from flu-like symptoms to death. It is currently believed that this deadly Coronavirus strain originated from wild animals at the Huanan market in Wuhan, a city in Hubei province. Bats, snakes and pangolins have been cited as potential carriers based on the sequence homology of CoV isolated from these animals and the viral nucleic acids of the virus isolated from SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Extreme quarantine measures, including sealing off large cities, closing borders and confining people to their homes, were instituted in January 2020 to prevent spread of the virus, but by that time much of the damage had been done, as human-human transmission became evident. While these quarantine measures are necessary and have prevented a historical disaster along the lines of the Spanish flu, earlier recognition and earlier implementation of quarantine measures may have been even more effective. Lessons learned from SARS resulted in faster determination of the nucleic acid sequence and a more robust quarantine strategy. However, it is clear that finding an effective antiviral and developing a vaccine are still significant challenges. The costs of the epidemic are not limited to medical aspects, as the virus has led to significant sociological, psychological and economic effects globally. Unfortunately, emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has led to numerous reports of Asians being subjected to racist behavior and hate crimes across the world.

negative: Canadian Geriatrics in the Time of COVID‐19

negative: The Role of Managerial Epidemiology in Infection Prevention and Control 1. Understand the roles and responsibilities of health care managers in infection prevention and control in health care organizations. 2. Apply epidemiologic principles to manage an outbreak of a transmissible disease in a health care setting. 3. Develop a strategy for infection prevention in a health care setting.

negative: 2013 ACVIM Forum Research Abstracts Program

negative: Pediatric epidemic crisis: Lessons for policy and practice development Abstract Objectives This research study addresses health policy and patient care considerations, and outlines policy and practice implications resulting from a crisis in a pediatric setting. This crisis, an epidemic outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), dramatically impacted the delivery of health care in Canada. Despite the passage of time since the last diagnosed case of SARS in April 2004, researchers have warned the global community to be prepared for future outbreaks of SARS or other infectious diseases. Methods Qualitative interviews were conducted with 23 participants representing key stakeholder groups: (a) pediatric patients with probable or suspected SARS, (b) their parents, and (c) health care professionals providing direct care to SARS patients. Results Participants conveyed key areas in which health policy and practice were affected. These included the development of communication strategies for responding to SARS; easing vulnerability among all stakeholders; and the rapid development of practice guidelines. Conclusion Given the continuing threat of current and future airborne viruses with potential for epidemic spread and devastating outcomes, preparedness strategies are certainly needed. Effective strategies in pediatrics include practices that provide family centered care while minimizing disease transmission. Toward this end, lessons learned from previous outbreaks merit consideration and may inform future epidemics.

negative: COVID-19: what has been learned and to be learned about the novel coronavirus disease The outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has thus far killed over 3,000 people and infected over 80,000 in China and elsewhere in the world, resulting in catastrophe for humans. Similar to its homologous virus, SARS-CoV, which caused SARS in thousands of people in 2003, SARS-CoV-2 might also be transmitted from the bats and causes similar symptoms through a similar mechanism. However, COVID-19 has lower severity and mortality than SARS but is much more transmissive and affects more elderly individuals than youth and more men than women. In response to the rapidly increasing number of publications on the emerging disease, this article attempts to provide a timely and comprehensive review of the swiftly developing research subject. We will cover the basics about the epidemiology, etiology, virology, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis, and prevention of the disease. Although many questions still require answers, we hope that this review helps in the understanding and eradication of the threatening disease.

negative: 新型冠状病毒肺炎流行期肺部手术的初步建议 In December 2019, China diagnosed the first patient with 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and the following development of the epidemic had a huge impact on China and the whole world. For patients with lung occupying lesions, the whole process of diagnosis and treatment can not be carried out as usual due to the epidemic. For thoracic surgeons, the timing of surgical intervention should be very carefully considered. All thoracic surgeons in China should work together to develop the proper procedures for the diagnosis and treatment in this special situation, and continuously update the recommendations based on epidemic changes and further understanding of COVID-19. Here, we only offer some preliminary suggestions based on our own knowledge for further reference and discussion.

negative: Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA based time-series analysis to forecast near future COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation. Following that notion, we have developed a model and then employed it for forecasting future COVID-19 cases in India. The study indicates an ascending trend for the cases in the coming days. A time series analysis also presents an exponential increase in the number of cases. It is supposed that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.

negative: SEVERE HUMAN RHINOVIRUS OUTBREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FATALITIES IN A LONG‐TERM CARE FACILITY IN ONTARIO, CANADA

negative: Social and administrative issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan: better late than never The study critically reviewed Pakistan’s provincial updates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and discussed the current challenges faced by the government in a given context. The coronavirus-associated death tolls have been increasing rapidly in a country. The provincial status of confirmed cases of coronavirus is higher in Punjab, followed by the Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Balochistan. The case fatality ratio shows that KPK has a higher ratio, i.e., 5.11%, followed by the Punjab, i.e., 1.82%; Sindh, i.e., 1.80%; Balochistan, i.e., 1.28%; Gilgit-Baltistan, i.e., 0.71%; and Federal territory, i.e., 0.66%. The country has a less testing capacity to identify more suspected coronavirus patients. The study calculated that if we increase five times our testing capacity from the current date, the total registered cases will be reached to 137,370 and death tolls will increase up to 3090. It is highly needed to increase testing capacity across Pakistan in order to minimize the outbreak of coronavirus. The provincial government should follow the Federal Government instructions to contain coronavirus by increasing testing capacities, tracing suspected patients, smart lockdowns, emergency relief to the poor, and vigilant monitoring system.

negative: Tomar medidas preventivas inmediatamente: evidencia de China sobre el COVID-19

negative: Antigenic Relationship between Human Coronavirus Strain DC 43 and Hemagglutinating Encephalomyelitis Virus Strain 67N of Swine: Antibody Responses in Human and Animal Sera Hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus of swine (HEV) was adapted to growth in suckling mouse brain. Electron micrographs of HEV-infected suckling mouse brain, prepared by negative staining and thin-section techniques, exhibited typical morphological characteristics shared with other members of the Coronaviridae. The adaptation of HEV to suckling mouse brain facilitated serologic testing by the use of common host reagents and compatible animal systems. With hemagglutination inhibition, complement-fixation, and neutralization tests, an antigenic relationship was demonstrated between human coronavirus OC 43 and HEV in specific immune and hyperimmune animal sera. Children and adults with seroconversion to OC 43 antigen had diagnostic rises in titer of antibody to HEV antigens. Individuals with seroconversion to human coronaviruses 229E and B814 demonstrated antibody to HEV but not diagnostic rises in titer. Swine with titers of antibody to HEV had lower or no detectable titers of antibody to coronavirus OC 43. Although the prevalence and geometric mean titer of antibody to DC 43 were higher than the titer of antibody to HEV in every group of normal humans tested, significant differences in antibody response to coronavirus DC 43 and HEV were seen between populations that did or did not have possible contact with swine. The evidence suggested that antibody to HEV in humans probably represented a heterologous response to infection with coronavirus DC 43. However, a heterotypic response to unknown or uncharacterized strains of coronavirus cannot be excluded.

negative: Effect of COVID-19 on the mental health care of older people in Canada

negative: Mitigating the impact of conference and travel cancellations on researchers’ futures The need to protect public health during the current COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated conference cancellations on an unprecedented scale. As the scientific community adapts to new working conditions, it is important to recognize that some of our actions may disproportionately affect early-career researchers and scientists from countries with limited research funding. We encourage all conference organizers, funders and institutions who are able to do so to consider how they can mitigate the unintended consequences of conference and travel cancellations and we provide seven recommendations for how this could be achieved. The proposed solutions may also offer long-term benefits for those who normally cannot attend conferences, and thus lead to a more equitable future for generations of researchers.

negative: Why are pregnant women susceptible to COVID-19? An immunological viewpoint Abstract The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first detected in December 2019 and became epidemic in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. COVID-19 has been rapidly spreading out in China and all over the world. The virus causing COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 has been known to be genetically similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) but distinct from it. Clinical manifestation of COVID-19 can be characterized by mild upper respiratory tract infection, lower respiratory tract infection involving non-life threatening pneumonia, and life-threatening pneumonia with acute respiratory distress syndrome. It affects all age groups, including newborns, to the elders. Particularly, pregnant women may be more susceptible to COVID-19 since pregnant women, in general, are vulnerable to respiratory infection. In pregnant women with COVID-19, there is no evidence for vertical transmission of the virus, but an increased prevalence of preterm deliveries has been noticed. The COVID-19 may alter immune responses at the maternal-fetal interface, and affect the well-being of mothers and infants. In this review, we focused on the reason why pregnant women are more susceptible to COVID-19 and the potential maternal and fetal complications from an immunological viewpoint.

negative: Comparative seasonalities of influenza A, B and ‘common cold’ coronaviruses – setting the scene for SARSCoV-2 infections and possible unexpected host immune interactions

negative: An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) The basic reproduction number of an infectious agent is the average number of infections one case can generate over the course of the infectious period, in a naïve, uninfected population. It is well-known that the estimation of this number may vary due to several methodological issues, including different assumptions and choice of parameters, utilized models, used datasets and estimation period. With the spreading of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection, the reproduction number has been found to vary, reflecting the dynamics of transmission of the coronavirus outbreak as well as the case reporting rate. Due to significant variations in the control strategies, which have been changing over time, and thanks to the introduction of detection technologies that have been rapidly improved, enabling to shorten the time from infection/symptoms onset to diagnosis, leading to faster confirmation of the new coronavirus cases, our previous estimations on the transmission risk of the 2019-nCoV need to be revised. By using time-dependent contact and diagnose rates, we refit our previously proposed dynamics transmission model to the data available until January 29th(,) 2020 and re-estimated the effective daily reproduction ratio that better quantifies the evolution of the interventions. We estimated when the effective daily reproduction ratio has fallen below 1 and when the epidemics will peak. Our updated findings suggest that the best measure is persistent and strict self-isolation. The epidemics will continue to grow, and can peak soon with the peak time depending highly on the public health interventions practically implemented.

negative: Challenges and opportunities for surveillance data to inform public health policy on chronic non-communicable diseases: Canadian perspectives Summary A number of major challenges face surveillance systems in the field of chronic disease. The complex interplay of risk factors and determinants that result in chronic disease is calling into question traditional surveillance systems in terms of what is collected to inform policy decisions. At the same time, the complexity presents an opportunity to broaden the evidence base on which arguments can be based for chronic disease intervention to increase their potential to influence policy makers. This article describes some initiatives in Canada to enhance the capacity and utility of surveillance systems and their associated data to inform policy making in the field of chronic disease.

negative: COVID-19: a meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy of commercial assays registered in Brazil Abstract The accuracy of commercially available tests for COVID-19 in Brazil remains unclear. We aimed to perform a meta-analysis to describe the accuracy of available tests to detect COVID-19 in Brazil. We searched at the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA) online platform to describe the pooled sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) and summary receiver operating characteristic curves (SROC) for detection of IgM/IgG antibodies and for tests using naso/oropharyngeal swabs in the random-effects models. We identified 16 tests registered, mostly rapid-tests. Pooled diagnostic accuracy measures [95%CI] were: (i) for IgM antibodies Se=82% [76-87]; Sp=97% [96-98]; DOR=168 [92-305] and SROC=0.98 [0.96-0.99]; (ii) for IgG antibodies Se=97% [90-99]; Sp=98% [97-99]; DOR=1994 [385-10334] and SROC=0.99 [0.98-1.00]; and (iii) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 by antigen or molecular assays in naso/oropharyngeal swabs Se=97% [85-99]; Sp=99% [77-100]; DOR=2649 [30-233056] and SROC=0.99 [0.98-1.00]. These tests can be helpful for emergency testing during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. However, it is important to highlight the high rate of false negative results from tests which detect SARS-CoV-2 IgM antibodies in the initial course of the disease and the scarce evidence-based validation results published in Brazil. Future studies addressing the diagnostic performance of tests for COVID-19 in the Brazilian population are urgently needed.

negative: Monitoring the COVID-19 epidemic in the context of widespread local transmission

negative: H1N1pdm Influenza Infection in Hospitalized Cancer Patients: Clinical Evolution and Viral Analysis BACKGROUND: The novel influenza A pandemic virus (H1N1pdm) caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide in 2009. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the clinical course, duration of viral shedding, H1N1pdm evolution and emergence of antiviral resistance in hospitalized cancer patients with severe H1N1pdm infections during the winter of 2009 in Brazil. METHODS: We performed a prospective single-center cohort study in a cancer center in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Hospitalized patients with cancer and a confirmed diagnosis of influenza A H1N1pdm were evaluated. The main outcome measures in this study were in-hospital mortality, duration of viral shedding, viral persistence and both functional and molecular analyses of H1N1pdm susceptibility to oseltamivir. RESULTS: A total of 44 hospitalized patients with suspected influenza-like illness were screened. A total of 24 had diagnosed H1N1pdm infections. The overall hospital mortality in our cohort was 21%. Thirteen (54%) patients required intensive care. The median age of the studied cohort was 14.5 years (3–69 years). Eighteen (75%) patients had received chemotherapy in the previous month, and 14 were neutropenic at the onset of influenza. A total of 10 patients were evaluated for their duration of viral shedding, and 5 (50%) displayed prolonged viral shedding (median 23, range = 11–63 days); however, this was not associated with the emergence of a resistant H1N1pdm virus. Viral evolution was observed in sequentially collected samples. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged influenza A H1N1pdm shedding was observed in cancer patients. However, oseltamivir resistance was not detected. Taken together, our data suggest that severely ill cancer patients may constitute a pandemic virus reservoir with major implications for viral propagation.

negative: Suspected cases of COVID-19: study protocol for reporting characteristics and the outcomes

negative: Novel Coronavirus and Related Public Health Interventions Are Negatively Impacting Mental Health Services

negative: Neurosurgery Residents Perspective on the COVID-19: Knowledge, Readiness, and Impact of this Pandemic. Abstract Background The novel Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a life-threatening illness, which represents a challenge to all the health-care workers. Neurosurgeons around the world are being affected in different ways. Objectives This is the first study regarding the readiness of neurosurgery residents towards the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact. The aim is to identify the level of knowledge, readiness, and the impact of this virus among neurosurgery residents in different programs. Methods A cross-sectional analysis in which 52 neurosurgery residents from different centers were selected to complete a questionnaire-based survey. The questionnaire comprised of three sections and 27 questions that ranged from knowledge to impact of the current pandemic on various features. Results The median knowledge score was 4 out of 5. The proportion of participants with satisfactory knowledge level was 60%. There was a statistically significant difference between the knowledge score and location of the program. Around 48% of the neurosurgery residents dealt directly with COVID-19 patients. Receiving a session about personal protective equipment (PPE) was reported by 57.7%. The neurosurgery training at the hospital was affected. About 90% believed that this pandemic influenced their mental health. Conclusion Neurosurgery residents have a relatively good knowledge about COVID-19. The location of the program was associated with knowledge level. Most of the participants did not receive a sufficient training about PPE. Almost all responders agree that their training at the hospital was affected. Further studies are needed to study the impact of this pandemic on neurosurgery residents.

negative: Recomendaciones sobre el manejo clínico de la infección por el «nuevo coronavirus» SARS-CoV2. Grupo de trabajo de la Asociación Española de Pediatría (AEP) Resumen El 31 de diciembre de 2019, la Comisión Municipal de Salud y Sanidad de Wuhan (provincia de Hubei, China) informó sobre la existencia de 27 casos de neumonía de etiología desconocida con inicio de síntomas el 8 de diciembre, incluyendo 7 casos graves, con exposición común a un mercado de marisco, pescado y animales vivos en la ciudad de Wuhan. El 7 de enero de 2020, las autoridades chinas identificaron como agente causante del brote un nuevo tipo de virus de la familia Coronaviridae, denominado temporalmente «nuevo coronavirus», 2019-nCoV. El 30 de enero de 2020 la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) declara el brote una Emergencia Internacional. El día 11 de febrero la OMS le asigna el nombre de SARS-CoV2 e infección COVID-19 (Coronavirus Infectious Disease). El Ministerio de Sanidad convoca a las Sociedades de Especialidades para la elaboración de un protocolo clínico de manejo de la infección. La Asociación Española de Pediatría nombra un grupo de trabajo de las Sociedades de Infectología Pediátrica y Cuidados Intensivos Pediátricos que se encargan de elaborar las presentes recomendaciones con la evidencia disponible en el momento de su realización. Abstract On 31 December 2019, the Wuhan Municipal Committee of Health and Healthcare (Hubei Province, China) reported that there were 27 cases of pneumonia of unknown origin with symptoms starting on the 8 December. There were 7 serious cases with common exposure in market with shellfish, fish, and live animals, in the city of Wuhan. On 7 January 2020, the Chinese authorities identified that the agent causing the outbreak was a new type of virus of the Coronaviridae family, temporarily called «new coronavirus», 2019-nCoV. On January 30th, 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the outbreak an International Emergency. On 11 February 2020 the WHO assigned it the name of SARS-CoV2 and COVID-19 (SARS-CoV2 and COVID-19). The Ministry of Health summoned the Specialties Societies to prepare a clinical protocol for the management of COVID-19. The Spanish Paediatric Association appointed a Working Group of the Societies of Paediatric Infectious Diseases and Paediatric Intensive Care to prepare the present recommendations with the evidence available at the time of preparing them.

negative: Covid-19 by Race and Ethnicity: A National Cohort Study of 6 Million United States Veterans BACKGROUND: There is growing concern that racial and ethnic minority communities around the world are experiencing a disproportionate burden of morbidity and mortality from symptomatic SARS-Cov-2 infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Most studies investigating racial and ethnic disparities to date have focused on hospitalized patients or have not characterized who received testing or those who tested positive for Covid-19. OBJECTIVE: To compare patterns of testing and test results for coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) and subsequent mortality by race and ethnicity in the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: United States Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). PARTICIPANTS: 5,834,543 individuals in care, among whom 62,098 were tested and 5,630 tested positive for Covid-19 between February 8 and May 4, 2020. EXPOSURES: Self-reported race/ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We evaluated associations between race/ethnicity and receipt of Covid-19 testing, a positive test result, and 30-day mortality, accounting for a wide range of demographic and clinical risk factors including comorbid conditions, site of care, and urban versus rural residence. RESULTS: Among all individuals in care, 74% were non-Hispanic white (white), 19% non-Hispanic black (black), and 7% Hispanic. Compared with white individuals, black and Hispanic individuals were more likely to be tested for Covid-19 (tests per 1000: white=9.0, [95% CI 8.9 to 9.1]; black=16.4, [16.2 to 16.7]; and Hispanic=12.2, [11.9 to 12.5]). While individuals from minority backgrounds were more likely to test positive (black vs white: OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.81 to 2.12; Hispanic vs white: OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.53 to 1.96), 30-day mortality did not differ by race/ethnicity (black vs white: OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.33; Hispanic vs white: OR 1.07, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.87). CONCLUSIONS: Black and Hispanic individuals are experiencing an excess burden of Covid-19 not entirely explained by underlying medical conditions or where they live or receive care. While there was no observed difference in mortality by race or ethnicity, our findings may underestimate risk in the broader US population as health disparities tend to be reduced in VA.

negative: Corona Epidemic in Indian context: Predictive Mathematical Modelling The novel Coronavirus pathogen Covid-19 is a cause of concern across the world as the human-to-human infection caused by it is spreading at a fast pace. The virus that first manifested in Wuhan, China has travelled across continents. The increase in number of deaths in Italy, Iran, USA, and other countries has alarmed both the developed and developing countries. Scientists are working hard to develop a vaccine against the virus, but until now no breakthrough has been achieved. India, the second most populated country in the world, is working hard in all dimensions to stop the spread of community infection. Health care facilities are being updated; medical and paramedical staffs are getting trained, and many agencies are raising awareness on the issues related to this virus and its transmission. The administration is leaving no stone unturned to prepare the country to mitigate the adverse effects. However, as the number of infected patients, and those getting cured is changing differently in different states everyday it is difficult to predict the spread of the virus and its fate in Indian context. Different states have adopted measures to stop the community spread. Considering the vast size of the country, the population size and other socio-economic conditions of the states, a single uniform policy may not work to contain the disease. In this paper, we discuss a predictive mathematical model that can give us some idea of the fate of the virus, an indicative data and future projections to understand the further course this pandemic can take. The data can be used by the health care agencies, the Government Organizations and the Planning Commission to make suitable arrangements to fight the pandemic. Though the model is preliminary, it can be used at regional level to manage the health care system in the present scenario. The recommendations can be made, and advisories prepared based on the predictive results that can be implemented at regional levels.

negative: Prior and Novel Coronaviruses, COVID-19, and Human Reproduction: What Is Known? Structured Abstract Objective To summarize current understanding of the effects of novel and prior coronaviruses on human reproduction, specifically male and female gametes, and in pregnancy. Design Review of English publications in PubMed and Embase to April 6, 2020. Methods Manuscripts were screened for reports including coronavirus, reproduction, including pathophysiology and pregnancy. Intervention(s) None. Main Outcome Measure(s) Reproductive outcomes; effects on gametes; pregnancy outcomes; neonatal complications. Results Seventy-nine reports formed the basis of the review. Coronavirus binding to cells involves the S1 domain of the spike protein to receptors present in reproductive tissues, including angiotensin converting enzyme-2 (ACE2), CD26, Ezrin, and cyclophilins. SARS-CoV-1 may cause severe orchitis leading to germ cell destruction in males. Reports indicate decreased sperm concentration and motility for 72-90 days following COVID-19 infection. Gonadotropin-dependent expression of ACE2 was found in human ovaries, but it is unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 adversely affects female gametogenesis. Evidence suggests that COVID-19 infection has a lower maternal case fatality rate than SARS or MERS, but anecdotal reports suggest that infected, asymptomatic women may develop respiratory symptoms postpartum. COVID-19 infections in pregnancy are associated with preterm delivery. Postpartum neonatal transmission from mother to child has been reported. Conclusion COVID-19 infection may adversely affect some pregnant women and their offspring. Additional studies are needed to assess effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection on male and female fertility.

negative: Estimating the parameters of SIR model of COVID-19 cases in India during lock down periods From the pandemic scenario of COVID-19 disease cases in all over the world, the outbreak prediction becomes very complex for the emerging scientifically research. Several epidemiological mathematical models of spread are increasing day by day to forecast correctly. Here, the classical SIR modelling approach is carried out to study the different parameters of this model in case of India county. This type of approach analyzed by considering different governmental lock down measures in India. There are some assumptions were taken into account for fitting the model in Python simulation in each lock down scenario. The predicted parameters of SIR model showed some improvement in each case of lock down in India. The outcome results showed the extreme interventions should be taken to tackle this type of pandemic situation in near future.

negative: Defining Natural Hazards – Large Scale Hazards The natural forces at work on planet Earth have been an integral part of life since the dawn of mankind. The impacts of hazards of natural origin can range from affecting infrastructure, personal possessions, and ecosystems to negatively affecting individuals’ psychosocial wellbeing. Disasters are the aftermath of hazards caused by natural phenomena, set off by shifts in tectonic plates or atmospheric interactions in populated areas. The extant literature offers a variety of ways to classify natural hazards. For example, they can be categorized by their origin – geological, hydrometeorological or biophysical; by their nature and speed – permanent, ephemeral or episodic; or on the basis of their size or scale – large, medium or small. Adopting the last of the three classification schemes, this chapter presents large scale hazards, which are more likely to occur on the North American continent, in alphabetical order. The list of hazards includes biophysical hazards, droughts, earthquakes, extreme weather, floods, forest fires, ice storms and hurricanes. To help readers follow the material, the chapter draws heavily on recent examples.

negative: Acute kidney injury in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A single-center retrospective observational study Background: The kidney may be affected in coronavirus-2019 disease (COVID-19). This study assessed the predictors and outcomes of acute kidney injury (AKI) among individuals with COVID-19. Methods: This observational study, included data on all patients with clinically confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Hankou Hospital, Wuhan, China from January 5 to March 8, 2020. Data were extracted from clinical and laboratory records. Follow-up was censored on March 8, 2020. This is a single-center, retrospective, observational study. Patients clinically confirmed COVID-19 and admitted to Hankou Hospital, Wuhan, China from January 5 to March 8, 2020 were enrolled. We evaluated the association between changes in the incidence of AKI and COVID-19 disease and clinical outcomes by using logistic regression models. Results: A total of 287 patients, 55 with AKI and 232 without AKI, were included in the analysis. Compared to patients without AKI, AKI patients were older, predominantly male, and were more likely to present with hypoxia and have pre-existing hypertension and cerebrovascular disease. Moreover, AKI patients had higher levels of white blood cells, D-dimer, aspartate aminotransferase, total bilirubin, creatine kinase, lactate dehydrogenase, procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, a higher prevalence of hyperkalemia, lower lymphocyte counts, and higher chest computed tomographic scores. The incidence of stage 1 AKI was 14.3%, and the incidence of stage 2 or 3 AKI was 4.9%. Patients with AKI had substantially higher mortality. Conclusions: AKI is an important complication of COVID-19. Older age, male, multiple pre-existing comorbidities, lymphopenia, increased infection indicators, elevated D-dimer, and impaired heart and liver functions were the risk factors of AKI. AKI patients who progressed to stages 2 or 3 AKI had a higher mortality rate. Prevention of AKI and monitoring of kidney function is very important for COVID 19 patients.

negative: Clinical Characteristics and Morbidity Associated With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in a Series of Patients in Metropolitan Detroit IMPORTANCE: In late December 2019, an outbreak caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 emerged in Wuhan, China. Data on the clinical characteristics and outcomes of infected patients in urban communities in the US are limited. OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to perform a comparative analysis of hospitalized and ambulatory patient populations. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study is a case series of 463 consecutive patients with COVID-19 evaluated at Henry Ford Health System in metropolitan Detroit, Michigan, from March 9 to March 27, 2020. Data analysis was performed from March to April 2020. EXPOSURE: Laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Demographic data, underlying comorbidities, clinical presentation, complications, treatment, and outcomes were collected. RESULTS: Of 463 patients with COVID-19 (mean [SD] age, 57.5 [16.8] years), 259 (55.9%) were female, and 334 (72.1%) were African American. Most patients (435 [94.0%]) had at least 1 comorbidity, including hypertension (295 patients [63.7%]), chronic kidney disease (182 patients [39.3%]), and diabetes (178 patients [38.4%]). Common symptoms at presentation were cough (347 patients [74.9%]), fever (315 patients [68.0%]), and dyspnea (282 patients [60.9%]). Three hundred fifty-five patients (76.7%) were hospitalized; 141 (39.7%) required intensive care unit management and 114 (80.8%) of those patients required invasive mechanical ventilation. Male sex (odds ratio [OR], 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.2; P = .001), severe obesity (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-3.6; P = .02), and chronic kidney disease (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.3; P = .006) were independently associated with intensive care unit admission. Patients admitted to the intensive care unit had longer length of stay and higher incidence of respiratory failure and acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, acute kidney injury requiring dialysis, shock, and mortality (57 patients [40.4%] vs 15 patients [7.0%]) compared with patients in the general practice unit. Twenty-nine (11.2%) of those discharged from the hospital were readmitted and, overall, 20.0% died within 30 days. Male sex (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.1; P = .03) and age older than 60 years (OR, 5.3; 95% CI, 2.9-9.7; P < .001) were significantly associated with mortality, whereas African American race was not (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.54-1.8; P = .86). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this review of urban metropolitan patients with COVID-19, most were African American with a high prevalence of comorbid conditions and high rates of hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, complications, and mortality due to COVID-19.

negative: Understanding of guidance for acupuncture and moxibustion interventions on COVID-19 (Second edition) issued by CAAM Abstract At present, the situation of global fight against COVID-19 is serious. WHO (World Health Organization)-China Joint Mission fully confirms the success of “China's model” against COVID-19 in the report. In fact, one particular power in “China's model” is acupuncture and moxibustion of traditional Chinese medicine. To better apply “non-pharmaceutic measures”—the external technique of traditional Chinese medicine, in the article, the main content of Guidance for acupuncture and moxibustion interventions on COVID-19 (Second edition) issued by China Association of Acupuncture–Moxibution is introduced and the discussion is stressed on the selection of moxibustion device and the duration of its exertion.

negative: 2019-nCoV epidemic: address mental health care to empower society

negative: New understanding of the damage of SARS-CoV-2 infection outside the respiratory system Abstract Since early December 2019, a number of pneumonia cases associated with unknown coronavirus infection were identified in Wuhan, China, and many additional cases were identified in other regions of China and in other countries within 3 months. Currently, more than 80,000 cases have been diagnosed in China, including more than 3,000 deaths. The epidemic is spreading to the rest of the world, posing a grave challenge to prevention and control. On February 12, 2020, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses and the World Health Organization officially named the novel coronavirus and associated pneumonia as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), respectively. According to the recent research on SARS-CoV-2, the virus mainly infects the respiratory system but may cause damage to other systems. In this paper, we will systematically review the pathogenic features, transmission routes, and infection mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2, as well as any adverse effects on the digestive system, urogenital system, central nervous system, and circulatory system, in order to provide a theoretical and clinical basis for the diagnosis, classification, treatment, and prognosis assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: A demographic adjustment to improve measurement of COVID-19 severity at the developing stage of the pandemic The need for accurate statistics has never been felt so deeply as the novel COVID-19 pathogen spreads around the world and quantifying its severity is a primary clinical and public health issue. In Italy, the magnitude and increasing trend of the case-fatality risk (CFR) is fueling the already high levels of public alarm. In this paper, we highlight that the widely used crude CFR is an inaccurate measure of the disease severity since the pandemic is still unfolding. With the goal to improve its comparability over time and across countries at this stage, we then propose a demographic adjustment of the CFR that addresses the bias arising from differential case ascertainment by age. When applied to publicly released data for Italy, we show that until March 16 our adjusted CFR was similar to that of Wuhan, the most affected Chinese region, where COVID-19 has now been contained. This indicates that our adjusted CFR improves its comparability over time, making an important tool to chart the course of the COVID-19 pandemic across countries. Since March 16, the Italian COVID-19 outbreak has entered a new phase, with the northern and southern regions following different trajectories. As a result, our adjusted CFR has been increasing between March 16 and March 20. Data at the subnational level are needed to correctly assess the disease severity in the country at this stage.

negative: Food security and Canada's agricultural system challenged by COVID‐19 The effect of COVID‐19 on Canadian food security is examined from two different perspectives. COVID‐19 creates a unique “income shock” that is expected to increase the prevalence of household food insecurity. This food insecurity can be measured by utilizing the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS). More fundamentally, COVID‐19 heightens household concern about the capacity of the Canadian food system to ensure food availability. Despite surges in demand and supply chain disruptions, we currently do not observe broad, rapid appreciation in food prices. This suggests that there is an adequate supply of food for the near term. There is less certainty over intermediate and longer time periods because so many factors are in flux, particularly the rate of increases in sicknesses and deaths across the country and globally. Data on these health factors and elements of the food supply chain are needed to predict beyond a short time frame. In this regard, we discuss three ongoing considerations—ease of capital flows, international exchange, and maintaining transportation—that will help ensure food availability in the longer run.

negative: The chronology of the 2002–2003 SARS mini pandemic Summary Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was a new human disease in the autumn of 2002. It first occurred in Southern China in November 2002 and was transported to Hong Kong on February 21, 2003 by an infected and ill patient. Ten secondary cases spread the infection to two hospitals in Hong Kong and to Singapore, Toronto and Hanoi. In March 2003 a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV) was found to be the causative agent. Within 11 weeks from the first SARS case in Hong Kong it had spread to an additional 27 countries or special administrative regions. The mini pandemic peaked during the last week of May 2003 and the last new probable case was on July 13, 2003. There were a total of 8096 probable cases and 774 deaths. Sixty-six per cent of the cases occurred in China, 22% in Hong Kong, 4% in Taiwan and 3% in both Singapore and Canada. Twenty-one per cent of all cases occurred in healthcare workers.

negative: SARS virus claims its third victim in Canada

negative: THE MENTAL HEALTH OF THOSE WHOSE RIGHTS HAVE BEEN TAKEN AWAY: AN ESSAY ON THE MENTAL HEALTH OF INDIGENOUS PEOPLES IN THE FACE OF THE 2019 CORONAVIRUS (2019-NCOV) OUTBREAK BACKGROUND: : In Latin America there are about 45 million indigenous people in 826 communities that represent 8.3% of the population. An estimated 798,365 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander were in Australia, 5,2 million indigenous people living in America and 2,13 million in Canada. Racial/ethnic disparities in mental health service use have increased especially in the context of the new coronavirus pandemic. Thus, we aimed to describe the mental health situation of the indigenous population in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic METHOD: : The studies were identified in well-known international journals found in three electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, and MEDLINE. The data were cross-checked with information from the main international newspapers. RESULTS: : According to the literature, due to the COVID-19 pandemic there is a lack of specialized mental health services and professionals, a restricted access to quality information and a lack of access to inputs, causing negative feelings and it can exacerbate pre-existing mental problems (eg: depression, suicidal ideation, smoking and binge drink). The cultural differences are a risk factor to worsen the mental health of this already vulnerable population. CONCLUSION: : providing psychological first aid is an essential care component for indigenous populations that have been victims COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a severe public health problem globally. Both epidemiological and laboratory studies have shown that ambient temperature could affect the transmission and survival of coronaviruses. This study aimed to determine whether the temperature is an essential factor in the infection caused by this novel coronavirus. Methods Daily confirmed cases and meteorological factors in 122 cities were collected between January 23, 2020, to February 29, 2020. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases. We also used a piecewise linear regression to determine the relationship in detail. Results The exposure-response curves suggested that the relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases was approximately linear in the range of <3 °C and became flat above 3 °C. When mean temperature (lag0–14) was below 3 °C, each 1 °C rise was associated with a 4.861% (95% CI: 3.209–6.513) increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases. These findings were robust in our sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Our results indicate that mean temperature has a positive linear relationship with the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 3 °C. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline when the weather becomes warmer, which provides useful implications for policymakers and the public.

negative: Understanding Epidemic Data and Statistics: A case study of COVID-19 The 2019-Novel-Coronavirus (COVID-19) has affected 181 countries and out of about 1197405 confirmed cases (By April 5). Understanding the transmission dynamics of the infection in each country which affected on a daily basis and evaluating the effectiveness of control policies is critical for our further actions. To date, the statistics of COVID-19 reported cases show more than 80 percent of infected had a mild case of disease, while around 14 percent of infected experienced a severe one and about 5 percent are categorized as critical disease victims. Today's report (2020-04-05; daily updates in the prepared website) shows the confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the US, Spain, Italy, and Germany are 308850, 126168, 124632, and 96092; respectively. Calculating the total Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of Italy (2020-04-04), about 13.3% of confirmed cases passed away. Compared to South Korea's rate of 1.8% (7 times lower than Italy) and China's 4% (69% lower than Italy), the CFR of Italy is too high. There are some effective policies that yield significant changes in the trend of cases. The lockdown policy in China, Italy, and Spain (the effect observed after some days), Shutdown of all non-essential companies in Hubei (the effect observed after 5 days), combined policy in South Korea, and reducing working hours in Iran.

negative: Respiratory infections and asthma Summary Respiratory tract infections caused by both viruses and/or atypical bacteria are involved in the pathogenesis of asthma. In particular, several viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus and influenza/parainfluenza viruses may favour the expression of the asthmatic phenotype, being also implicated in the induction of disease exacerbations. Within this pathological context, a significant role can also be played by airway bacterial colonizations and infections due to Chlamydiae and Mycoplasms. All these microbial agents probably interfere with complex immunological pathways, thus contributing to induce and exacerbate asthma in genetically predisposed individuals.

negative: icumonitoring.ch: a platform for short-term forecasting of intensive care unit occupancy during the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. In Switzerland, the COVID-19 epidemic is progressively slowing down owing to “social distancing” measures introduced by the Federal Council on 16 March 2020. However, the gradual ease of these measures may initiate a second epidemic wave, the length and intensity of which are difficult to anticipate. In this context, hospitals must prepare for a potential increase in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions of patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome. Here, we introduce icumonitoring.ch, a platform providing hospital-level projections for ICU occupancy. We combined current data on the number of beds and ventilators with canton-level projections of COVID-19 cases from two S-E-I-R models. We disaggregated epidemic projection in each hospital in Switzerland for the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, hospitalisations in ICU, and ventilators in use. The platform is updated every 3-4 days and can incorporate projections from other modelling teams to inform decision makers with a range of epidemic scenarios for future hospital occupancy.

negative: Diagnostic tests for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever: a widespread tickborne disease Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a widespread tickborne disease that circulates in wild and domestic animal hosts, and causes severe and often fatal haemorrhagic fever in infected humans. Due to the lack of treatment options or vaccines, and a high fatality rate, CCHF virus (CCHFV) is considered a high-priority pathogen according to the WHO R&D Blueprint. Several commercial reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) and serological diagnostic assays for CCHFV are already available, including febrile agent panels to distinguish CCHFV from other viral haemorrhagic fever agents; however, the majority of international laboratories use inhouse assays. As CCHFV has numerous amplifying animal hosts, a cross-sectoral ‘One Health’ approach to outbreak prevention is recommended to enhance notifications and enable early warning for genetic and epidemiological shifts in the human, animal and tick populations. However, a lack of guidance for surveillance in animals, harmonisation of case identification and validated serodiagnostic kits for animal testing hinders efforts to strengthen surveillance systems. Additionally, as RT-PCR tests tend to be lineage-specific for regional circulating strains, there is a need for pan-lineage sensitive diagnostics. Adaptation of existing tests to point-of-care molecular diagnostic platforms that can be implemented in clinic or field-based settings would be of value given the potential for CCHFV outbreaks in remote or low-resource areas. Finally, improved access to clinical specimens for validation of diagnostics would help to accelerate development of new tests. These gaps should be addressed by updated target product profiles for CCHFV diagnostics.

negative: Clinical features and outcomes of pregnant women suspected of coronavirus disease 2019 Summary Background 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic. Under such circumstance pregnant women are also affected significantly. Objective This study aims to observe the clinical features and outcomes of pregnant women who have been confirmed with COVID-19. Methods The research objects were 55 cases of suspected COVID-19 pregnant women who gave a birth from Jan 20th 2020 to Mar 5th 2020 in our hospital-a big birth center delivering about 30,000 babies in the last 3 years. These cases were subjected to pulmonary CT scan and routine blood test, manifested symptoms of fever, cough, chest tightness or gastrointestinal symptoms. They were admitted to an isolated suite, with clinical features and newborn babies being carefully observed. Among the 55 cases, 13 patients were assigned into the confirmed COVID-19 group for being tested positive sever acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2) via maternal throat swab test, and the other 42 patients were assigned into the control group for being ruled out COVID-19 pneumonia based on new coronavirus pneumonia prevention and control program(the 7th edition). Results There were 2 fever patients during the prenatal period and 8 fever patients during the postpartum period in the confirmed COVID-19 group. In contrast, there were 11 prenatal fever patients and 20 postpartum fever patients in the control group (p>0.05). Among 55 cases, only 2 case had cough in the confirmed group. The imaging of pulmonary CT scan showed ground- glass opacity (46.2%, 6/13), patch-like shadows(38.5%, 5/13), fiber shadow(23.1%, 3/13), pleural effusion (38.5%, 5/13)and pleural thickening(7.7%, 1/13), and there was no statistical difference between the confirmed COVID-19 group and the control group (p>0.05). During the prenatal and postpartum period, there was no difference in the count of WBC, Neutrophils and Lymphocyte, the radio of Neutrophils and Lymphocyte and the level of CRP between the confirmed COVID-19 group and the control group(p<0.05). 20 babies (from confirmed mother and from normal mother) were subjected to SARS-CoV-2 examination by throat swab samples in 24 h after birth and no case was tested positive. Conclusion The clinical symptoms and laboratory indicators are not obvious for asymptomatic and mild COVID-19 pregnant women. Pulmonary CT scan plus blood routine examination are more suitable for finding pregnancy women with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 infection, and can be used screening COVID-19 pregnant women in the outbreak area of COVID-19 infection.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19): Implications for Clinical Dental Care The recent spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its associated coronavirus disease has gripped the entire international community and caused widespread public health concerns. Despite global efforts to contain the disease spread, the outbreak is still on a rise because of the community spread pattern of this infection. This is a zoonotic infection, similar to other coronavirus infections, that is believed to have originated in bats and pangolins and later transmitted to humans. Once in the human body, this coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is abundantly present in nasopharyngeal and salivary secretions of affected patients, and its spread is predominantly thought to be respiratory droplet/contact in nature. Dental professionals, including endodontists, may encounter patients with suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and will have to act diligently not only to provide care but at the same time prevent nosocomial spread of infection. Thus, the aim of this article is to provide a brief overview of the epidemiology, symptoms, and routes of transmission of this novel infection. In addition, specific recommendations for dental practice are suggested for patient screening, infection control strategies, and patient management protocol.

negative: Cynomolgus Macaque as an Animal Model for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome BACKGROUND: The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002 and 2003 affected global health and caused major economic disruption. Adequate animal models are required to study the underlying pathogenesis of SARS-associated coronavirus (SARS-CoV) infection and to develop effective vaccines and therapeutics. We report the first findings of measurable clinical disease in nonhuman primates (NHPs) infected with SARS-CoV. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In order to characterize clinically relevant parameters of SARS-CoV infection in NHPs, we infected cynomolgus macaques with SARS-CoV in three groups: Group I was infected in the nares and bronchus, group II in the nares and conjunctiva, and group III intravenously. Nonhuman primates in groups I and II developed mild to moderate symptomatic illness. All NHPs demonstrated evidence of viral replication and developed neutralizing antibodies. Chest radiographs from several animals in groups I and II revealed unifocal or multifocal pneumonia that peaked between days 8 and 10 postinfection. Clinical laboratory tests were not significantly changed. Overall, inoculation by a mucosal route produced more prominent disease than did intravenous inoculation. Half of the group I animals were infected with a recombinant infectious clone SARS-CoV derived from the SARS-CoV Urbani strain. This infectious clone produced disease indistinguishable from wild-type Urbani strain. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV infection of cynomolgus macaques did not reproduce the severe illness seen in the majority of adult human cases of SARS; however, our results suggest similarities to the milder syndrome of SARS-CoV infection characteristically seen in young children.

negative: Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected MPs’ Representational Activities? The COVID-19 pandemic has necessarily affected the operation of Canada's Parliament and, thus, the activities of Members of Parliament (MPs) (Malloy, 2020; Rayment and VandenBeukel, 2020). Here, we explore how the pandemic has affected the representational activities of individual MPs.

negative: Intervention strategies for emerging respiratory virus infections: policy and public health considerations Respiratory viruses have emerged and re-emerged in humans for hundreds of years. In the recent past avian and animal influenza viruses have caused human disease ranging from conjunctivitis to respiratory illnesses, including the 2009–10 A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Coronaviruses, human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and enteroviruses have also impacted humans globally. Since the likely public health impacts are common, plans and policies for intervention strategies can be developed, encompassing early detection through surveillance and diagnostics, as well as treatment and prevention through clinical and non-clinical interventions. The global comprehensiveness of these varies according to differing resources, competing health priorities and the causative agent, yet, irrespective of this, activities must be proportional to the threat. Pandemics and severe epidemics enable policies to be tested and gaps identified.

negative: Perianesthesia Nurses Called to Practice in Extraordinary Times

negative: [Computed tomography (CT) utility for diagnosis and triage during COVID-19 pandemic] The nasopharyngeal smear with PCR analysis is the first diagnostic test proposed to confirm infection with COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 However, its usefulness in emergency centers is limited due to its imperfect sensitivity (56-83 %), limited availability and the time required to obtain results For this reason, the chest CT-scan has been proposed as a rapid triage tool for diagnosis in these suspect Covid-19 patients However, its specificity is limited, exposing to the risk of over-diagnosis, and further data are needed to confirm its usefulness, and to highlight the possible prognostic value of the CT, in detecting early lesions associated with poor outcome, indicating the need for admission to intensive care

negative: Public health investments: neglect or wilful omission? Historical trends in Quebec and implications for Canada This commentary explores public health (PH) investments in Quebec and underlines the challenge of tracking PH resources across Canada. We analyzed governmental data to compare investments across all health and social programs in Quebec from 2004–2005 to 2017–2018. The province’s PH budgets suffered from disproportionately low investments and abrupt cuts. These cuts were the largest among all health programs in 2015–2016 (− 7.1%). PH budgets did not keep up with inflation and, in constant dollars, have declined over the last decade. Furthermore, their evolution over the span of 14 years significantly differed from other health programs. On average, programs providing direct services experienced overall budget increases of 81%, whereas PH budgets had the lowest increase of all such programs at only 46%. PH suffers from serious erosion of its capacity. Unfortunately, there is a dire lack of comparable data for provincial, national, and international PH budgets, which further complicates the monitoring of PH erosion. We contend that systematic tracking of PH budgets remains profoundly inadequate across Canada. We recommend (1) regular, comprehensive, and publicly reported analyses of PH budgets; (2) in-depth comparisons of PH investments across Canadian jurisdictions; and (3) a strong PH systems and services research agenda for Canada.

negative: The emergence of porcine circovirus 2b genotype (PCV-2b) in swine in Canada. Since late 2004, the swine industry in the province of Quebec has experienced a significant increase in death rate related to postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS). To explain this phenomenon, 2 hypotheses were formulated: 1) the presence of a 2nd pathogen could be exacerbating the porcine circovirus 2 (PCV-2) infection, or 2) a new and more virulent PCV-2 strain could be infecting swine. In 2005, 13 PMWS cases were submitted to the Quebec provincial diagnostic laboratory and PCV-2 was the only virus that could be found consistently by PCR in all 13 samples. The PCR detection results obtained for other viruses revealed the following: 61.5% were positive for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, 30.8% for swine influenza virus, 15.4% for porcine parvovirus, 69.2% for swine torque teno virus (swTTV), 38.5% for swine hepatitis E virus (swHEV) and 84.6% for Mycoplasma hyorhinis; transmissible gastroenteritis virus and porcine respiratory coronavirus (TGEV/PRCV) was not detected. Sequences of the entire genome revealed that these PCV-2 strains belonged to a genotype (named PCV-2b) that has never been reported in Canada. Further sequence analyses on 83 other Canadian PCV-2 positive cases submitted to the provincial diagnostic laboratory during years 2005 and 2006 showed that 79.5% of the viral sequences obtained clustered in the PCV-2b genotype. The appearance of the PCV-2b genotype in Canada may explain the death rate increase related to PMWS, but this relationship has to be confirmed.

negative: From a single host to global spread. The global mobility based modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic implies higher infection and lower detection rates than current estimates. Background: Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple efforts of modelling of the geo-temporal transmissibility of the virus have been undertaken, but none succeeded in describing the pandemic at the global level. We propose a set of parameters for the first COVID-19 Global Epidemic and Mobility Model (GLEaM). The simulation starting with just a single pre-symptomatic, yet infectious, case in Wuhan, China, results in an accurate prediction of the number of diagnosed cases after 125 days in multiple countries across three continents. Methods: We have built a modified SIR model and parameterized it analytically, according to the literature and by fitting the missing parameters to the observed dynamics of the virus spread. We compared our results with the number of diagnosed cases in sixeight selected countries which provide reliable statistics but differ substantially in terms of strength and speed of undertaken precautions. The obtained 95% confidence intervals for the predictions fit well to the empirical data. Findings: The parameters that successfully model the pandemic are: the basic reproduction number R0, ~4.4; a latent non-infectious period of 1.1. days followed by 4.6 days of the presymptomatic infectious period; the probability of developing severe symptoms, 0.01; the probability of being diagnosed when presenting severe symptoms of 0.6; the probability of diagnosis for cases with mild symptoms or asymptomatic, 0.001. Also, the higher the testing rate per country, the lower the discrepancy between data (diagnosed cases) and model. Interpretation: Parameters that successfully reproduce the observed number of cases indicate that both R0 and the prevalence of the virus might be underestimated. This is in concordance with the newest research on undocumented COVID-19 cases. Consequently, the actual mortality rate is putatively lower than estimated. Confirmation of the pandemic characteristic by further refinement of the model and screening tests is crucial for developing an effective strategy for the global epidemiological crisis.

negative: COVID_MTNet: COVID-19 Detection with Multi-Task Deep Learning Approaches COVID-19 is currently one the most life-threatening problems around the world. The fast and accurate detection of the COVID-19 infection is essential to identify, take better decisions and ensure treatment for the patients which will help save their lives. In this paper, we propose a fast and efficient way to identify COVID-19 patients with multi-task deep learning (DL) methods. Both X-ray and CT scan images are considered to evaluate the proposed technique. We employ our Inception Residual Recurrent Convolutional Neural Network with Transfer Learning (TL) approach for COVID-19 detection and our NABLA-N network model for segmenting the regions infected by COVID-19. The detection model shows around 84.67% testing accuracy from X-ray images and 98.78% accuracy in CT-images. A novel quantitative analysis strategy is also proposed in this paper to determine the percentage of infected regions in X-ray and CT images. The qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate promising results for COVID-19 detection and infected region localization.

negative: Large-Scale Screening of COVID-19 from Community Acquired Pneumonia using Infection Size-Aware Classification The worldwide spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a threatening risk for global public health. It is of great importance to rapidly and accurately screen patients with COVID-19 from community acquired pneumonia (CAP). In this study, a total of 1658 patients with COVID-19 and 1027 patients of CAP underwent thin-section CT. All images were preprocessed to obtain the segmentations of both infections and lung fields, which were used to extract location-specific features. An infection Size Aware Random Forest method (iSARF) was proposed, in which subjects were automated categorized into groups with different ranges of infected lesion sizes, followed by random forests in each group for classification. Experimental results show that the proposed method yielded sensitivity of 0.907, specificity of 0.833, and accuracy of 0.879 under five-fold cross-validation. Large performance margins against comparison methods were achieved especially for the cases with infection size in the medium range, from 0.01% to 10%. The further inclusion of Radiomics features show slightly improvement. It is anticipated that our proposed framework could assist clinical decision making.

negative: COVID-19 and Long-Term Care Policy for Older People in Canada Older people are especially vulnerable to COVID-19, including and especially people living in long-term care facilities. In this Perspective, we discuss the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care policy in Canada. More specifically, we use the example of recent developments in Quebec, where a tragedy in a specific facility is acting as a dramatic "focusing event". It draws attention to the problems facing long-term care facilities, considering existing policy legacies and the opening of a "policy window" that may facilitate comprehensive reforms in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Maternal and perinatal outcomes with COVID-19: A systematic review of 108 pregnancies INTRODUCTION: The pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has exposed vulnerable populations to an unprecedented global health crisis. The knowledge gained from previous human coronavirus outbreaks suggests that pregnant women and their fetuses are particularly susceptible to poor outcomes. The objective of this study was to summarize the clinical manifestations and maternal and perinatal outcomes of COVID-19 during pregnancy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We searched databases for all case reports and series from 12 February to 4 April 2020. Multiple terms and combinations were used including COVID-19, pregnancy, maternal mortality, maternal morbidity, complications, clinical manifestations, neonatal morbidity, intrauterine fetal death, neonatal mortality and SARS-CoV-2. Eligibility criteria included peer-reviewed publications written in English or Chinese and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or dual fluorescence PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Unpublished reports, unspecified date and location of the study or suspicion of duplicate reporting, cases with suspected COVID-19 that were not confirmed by a laboratory test, and unreported maternal or perinatal outcomes were excluded. Data on clinical manifestations, maternal and perinatal outcomes including vertical transmission were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS: Eighteen articles reporting data from 108 pregnancies between 8 December 2019 and 1 April 2020 were included in the current study. Most reports described women presenting in the third trimester with fever (68%) and coughing (34%). Lymphocytopenia (59%) with elevated C-reactive protein (70%) was observed and 91% of the women were delivered by cesarean section. Three maternal intensive care unit admissions were noted but no maternal deaths. One neonatal death and one intrauterine death were also reported. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of mothers were discharged without any major complications, severe maternal morbidity as a result of COVID-19 and perinatal deaths were reported. Vertical transmission of the COVID-19 could not be ruled out. Careful monitoring of pregnancies with COVID-19 and measures to prevent neonatal infection are warranted.

negative: Vertical Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) from Infected Pregnant Mothers to Neonates: A Review Background: Since early December 2019, the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) infection has been prevalent in China and eventually spread to other countries. There are a few published cases of COVID-19 occurring during pregnancy and due the possibility of mother-fetal vertical transmission, there is a concern that the fetuses may be at risk of congenital COVID-19. Methods: We reviewed the risk of vertical transmission of COVID-19 to the fetus of infected mothers by using data of published articles or official websites up to March 4, 2020. Results: A total of 31 infected pregnant mothers with COVID-19 were reported. No COVID-19 infection was detected in their neonates or placentas. Two mothers died from COVID-19-related respiratory complications after delivery. Conclusions: Currently, based on limited data, there is no evidence for intrauterine transmission of COVID-19 from infected pregnant women to their fetuses. Mothers may be at increased risk for more severe respiratory complications.

negative: SARS: Solución mediante Acciones y Respuestas Sensatas

negative: Canadian federal support for climate change and health research compared with the risks posed. For emerging public health risks such as climate change, the Canadian federal government has a mandate to provide information and resources to protect citizens' health. Research is a key component of this mandate and is essential if Canada is to moderate the health effects of a changing climate. We assessed whether federal support for climate change and health research is consistent with the risks posed. We audited projects receiving federal support between 1999 and 2009, representing an investment of Can$16 million in 105 projects. Although funding has increased in recent years, it remains inadequate, with negligible focus on vulnerable populations, limited research on adaptation, and volatility in funding allocations. A federal strategy to guide research support is overdue.

negative: Clinical and epidemiological aspects of human bocavirus infection Abstract Human bocavirus was recently described as a novel member of the Parvoviridae to infect humans. Based on accumulating clinical and epidemiological data the virus is currently being associated with respiratory infections in young children and infants and is furthermore discussed as causative agent of gastrointestinal illness.

negative: Emerging Infections and Pertinent Infections Related to Travel for Patients with Primary Immunodeficiencies In today’s global economy and affordable vacation travel, it is increasingly important that visitors to another country and their physician be familiar with emerging infections, infections unique to a specific geographic region, and risks related to the process of travel. This is never more important than for patients with primary immunodeficiency disorders (PIDD). A recent review addressing common causes of fever in travelers provides important information for the general population Thwaites and Day (N Engl J Med 376:548-560, 2017). This review covers critical infectious and management concerns specifically related to travel for patients with PIDD. This review will discuss the context of the changing landscape of infections, highlight specific infections of concern, and profile distinct infection phenotypes in patients who are immune compromised. The organization of this review will address the environment driving emerging infections and several concerns unique to patients with PIDD. The first section addresses general considerations, the second section profiles specific infections organized according to mechanism of transmission, and the third section focuses on unique phenotypes and unique susceptibilities in patients with PIDDs. This review does not address most parasitic diseases. Reference tables provide easily accessible information on a broader range of infections than is described in the text.

negative: Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), began in Wuhan city, Hubei province, in December, 2019, and has spread throughout China. Understanding the evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of the outbreak beyond Hubei would provide timely information to guide intervention policy. METHODS: We collected individual information from official public sources on laboratory-confirmed cases reported outside Hubei in mainland China for the period of Jan 19 to Feb 17, 2020. We used the date of the fourth revision of the case definition (Jan 27) to divide the epidemic into two time periods (Dec 24 to Jan 27, and Jan 28 to Feb 17) as the date of symptom onset. We estimated trends in the demographic characteristics of cases and key time-to-event intervals. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the dynamics of the net reproduction number (R(t)) at the provincial level. FINDINGS: We collected data on 8579 cases from 30 provinces. The median age of cases was 44 years (33–56), with an increasing proportion of cases in younger age groups and in elderly people (ie, aged >64 years) as the epidemic progressed. The mean time from symptom onset to hospital admission decreased from 4·4 days (95% CI 0·0–14·0) for the period of Dec 24 to Jan 27, to 2·6 days (0·0–9·0) for the period of Jan 28 to Feb 17. The mean incubation period for the entire period was estimated at 5·2 days (1·8–12·4) and the mean serial interval at 5·1 days (1·3–11·6). The epidemic dynamics in provinces outside Hubei were highly variable but consistently included a mixture of case importations and local transmission. We estimated that the epidemic was self-sustained for less than 3 weeks, with mean Rt reaching peaks between 1·08 (95% CI 0·74–1·54) in Shenzhen city of Guangdong province and 1·71 (1·32–2·17) in Shandong province. In all the locations for which we had sufficient data coverage of Rt, Rt was estimated to be below the epidemic threshold (ie, <1) after Jan 30. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the incubation period and serial interval were similar, suggesting an early peak of infectiousness, with possible transmission before the onset of symptoms. Our results also indicate that, as the epidemic progressed, infectious individuals were isolated more quickly, thus shortening the window of transmission in the community. Overall, our findings indicate that strict containment measures, movement restrictions, and increased awareness of the population might have contributed to interrupt local transmission of SARS-CoV-2 outside Hubei province. FUNDING: National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and European Commission Horizon 2020.

negative: Clinical Presentation of COVID-19: A Systematic Review Focusing on Upper Airway Symptoms. AIM Pharyngodynia, nasal congestion, rhinorrhea, smell, and taste dysfunctions could be the presenting symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The aim was to perform a systematic review of current evidences on clinical presentation of COVID-19, focusing on upper airway symptoms in order to help otolaryngologists identifying suspected cases. METHODS We searched PubMed and Web of Science electronic databases. RESULTS We included 5 retrospective clinical studies for a total of 1556 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, 57.5% were male and mean age was 49.1 years. Pooled data revealed that pharyngodynia was present in 12.4% of patients, nasal congestion in 3.7%, and rhinorrhea was rare. No reports on COVID-19 and olfactory/gustative disorders matched inclusion criteria but preliminary evidences suggested they could be present. Common symptoms were fever (85.6%), cough (68.7%), and fatigue (39.4%). Frequent comorbidities were hypertension (17.4%), diabetes (3.8%), and coronary heart disease (3.8%); 83% of patients had alterations on chest computed tomography that were bilateral in 89.5% of cases. Ground-glass opacity was the most common finding (50%). Lymphopenia (77.2%) and leucopenia (30.1%) were common. Critical cases with complications were 9%, intensive care unit admission was required in 7.3%, invasive ventilation in 3.4%, and mortality was 2.4%. CONCLUSION Otolaryngologists should know that pharyngodynia, nasal congestion, olfactory, and gustative disorders could be the presenting symptoms of COVID-19. Clinical presentation together with radiological and laboratory findings could help to identify suspected cases.

negative: Recomendaciones de consenso respecto al soporte respiratorio no invasivo en el paciente adulto con insuficiencia respiratoria aguda secundaria a infección por SARS-CoV-2 Resumen La enfermedad por coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) es una infección del tracto respiratorio causada por un nuevo coronavirus emergente que se reconoció por primera vez en Wuhan, China, en diciembre de 2019. Actualmente la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) ha definido la infección como pandemia y existe una situación de emergencia sanitaria y social para el manejo de esta nueva infección. Mientras que la mayoría de las personas con COVID-19 desarrollan solo una enfermedad leve o no complicada, aproximadamente el 14% desarrollan una enfermedad grave que requiere hospitalización y oxígeno, y el 5% pueden requerir ingreso en una Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos. En casos severos, COVID-19 puede complicarse por el síndrome de dificultad respiratoria aguda (SDRA), sepsis y shock séptico y fracaso multiorgánico. Este documento de consenso se ha preparado sobre directrices basadas en evidencia desarrolladas por un panel multidisciplinario de profesionales médicos de cuatro sociedades científicas españolas (Sociedad Española de Medicina Intensiva y Unidades Coronarias [SEMICYUC], Sociedad Española de Neumología y Cirugía Torácica [SEPAR], Sociedad Española de Urgencias y Emergencias [SEMES], Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor [SEDAR]) con experiencia en el manejo clínico de pacientes con COVID-19 y otras infecciones virales, incluido el SARS, así como en sepsis y SDRA. El documento proporciona recomendaciones clínicas para el soporte respiratorio no invasivo (ventilación no invasiva, oxigenoterapia de alto flujo con cánula nasal) en cualquier paciente con presentación sospechada o confirmada de COVID-19 con insuficiencia respiratoria aguda. Esta guía de consenso debe servir como base para una atención optimizada y garantizar la mejor posibilidad de supervivencia, así como permitir una comparación fiable de las futuras intervenciones terapéuticas de investigación que formen parte de futuros estudios observacionales o de ensayos clínicos. Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory tract infection caused by a newly emergent coronavirus, that was first recognized in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Currently, the World Health Organization (WHO) has defined the infection as a global pandemic and there is a health and social emergency for the management of this new infection. While most people with COVID-19 develop only mild or uncomplicated illness, approximately 14% develop severe disease that requires hospitalization and oxygen support, and 5% require admission to an intensive care unit. In severe cases, COVID-19 can be complicated by the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), sepsis and septic shock, and multiorgan failure. This consensus document has been prepared on evidence-informed guidelines developed by a multidisciplinary panel of health care providers from four Spanish scientific societies (Spanish Society of Intensive Care Medicine [SEMICYUC], Spanish Society of Pulmonologists [SEPAR], Spanish Society of Emergency [SEMES], Spanish Society of Anesthesiology, Reanimation, and Pain [SEDAR]) with experience in the clinical management of patients with COVID-19 and other viral infections, including SARS, as well as sepsis and ARDS. The document provides clinical recommendations for the noninvasive respiratory support (noninvasive ventilation, high flow oxygen therapy with nasal cannula) in any patient with suspected or confirmed presentation of COVID-19 with acute respiratory failure. This consensus guidance should serve as a foundation for optimized supportive care to ensure the best possible chance for survival and to allow for reliable comparison of investigational therapeutic interventions as part of randomized controlled trials.

negative: Finding equipoise: CEPI revises its equitable access policy Launched at Davos in January 2017 with funding from sovereign investors and philanthropic institutions, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) is an innovative partnership between public, private, philanthropic, and civil organisations whose mission is to stimulate, finance and co-ordinate vaccine development against diseases with epidemic potential in cases where market incentives fail. As of December 2019, CEPI has committed to investing up to $706 million in vaccine development. This includes 19 vaccine candidates against its priority pathogens (Lassa fever virus, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Nipah virus, Chikungunya, Rift Valley fever) and three vaccine platforms to develop vaccines against Disease X, a novel or unanticipated pathogen. As an entity largely supported by public funds, ensuring equitable access to vaccines whose development it supports in low- and middle-income countries is CEPI’s primary focus. CEPI developed an initial equitable access policy shortly after its formation, with key stakeholders expressing strong views about its content and prescriptive nature. The CEPI board instructed that it be revisited after a year. This paper describes the process of revising the policy, and how key issues were resolved. CEPI will continue to take an iterative, rather than prescriptive, approach to its policy—one that reflects the needs of multiple stakeholders and ensures it can meet its equitable access goals.

negative: COVID-19: One-month impact of the French lockdown on the epidemic burden On March 16 2020, French authorities ordered a large scale lockdown to counter the COVID-19 epidemic wave rising in the country, stopping non-essential economic, educational, and entertainment activities, maintaining mainly food retailers and healthcare institutions. One month later, the number of new hospitalizations and ICU admissions had reached a plateau and were beginning a slow descent. We developed a spatialized, deterministic, age-structured, and compartmental SARS-CoV-2 transmission model able to reproduce the pre-lockdown dynamic of the epidemic in each of the 13 French metropolitan regions. Thanks to this model, we estimate, at regional and national levels, the total number of hospitalizations, ICU admissions, hospital beds requirements (hospitalization and ICU), and hospital deaths which may have been prevented by this massive and unprecedented intervention in France. If no control measures had been set up, between March 19 and April 19 2020, our analysis shows that almost 23% of the French population would have been affected by COVID-19 (14.8 million individuals). Hence, the French lockdown prevented 587,730 hospitalizations and 140,320 ICU admissions at the national level. The total number of ICU beds required to treat patients in critical conditions would have been 104,550, far higher than the maximum French ICU capacity. This first month of lockdown also permitted to avoid 61,739 hospital deaths, corresponding to a 83.5% reduction of the total number of predicted deaths. Our analysis shows that in absence of any control measures, the COVID-19 epidemic would have had a critical morbidity and mortality burden in France, overwhelming in a matter of weeks French hospital capacities.

negative: Noninvasive ventilation in acute respiratory failure due to H1N1 influenza: A word of caution

negative: Impact of COVID-19 on Canadian medical oncologists and cancer care: Canadian Association of Medical Oncologists survey report. Background The covid-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented professional and personal challenges for the oncology community. Under the auspices of the Canadian Association of Medical Oncologists, we conducted an online national survey to better understand the impact of the pandemic on the medical oncology community in Canada. Methods An English-language multiple-choice survey, including questions about demographics, covid-19 risk, use of personal protective equipment (ppe), personal challenges, and chemotherapy management was distributed to Canadian medical oncologists. The survey was open from 30 March to 4 April 2020, and attracted 159 responses. Results More than 70% of medical oncologists expressed moderate-to-extreme concern about personally contracting covid-19 and about family members or patients (or both) contracting covid-19 from them. Despite that high level of concern, considerable variability in the use of ppe in direct cancer care was reported at the time of this survey, with 33% of respondents indicating no routine ppe use at their institutions and 69% indicating uncertainty about access to adequate ppe. Of the respondents, 54% were experiencing feelings of nervousness or anxiety on most days, and 52% were having feelings of depression or hopelessness on at least some days. Concern about aging parents or family and individual wellness represented the top personal challenges identified. The management of cancer patients has been affected, with adoption of telemedicine reported by 82% of respondents, and cessation of clinical trial accrual reported by 54%. The 3 factors deemed most important for treatment decision-making were■ cancer prognosis and anticipated benefit from treatment,■ risk of treatment toxicity during scarce health care access, and■ patient risk of contracting covid-19. Conclusions This report describes the results of the first national survey assessing the impact of the covid-19 on Canadian medical oncologists and how they deliver systemic anticancer therapies. We hope that these data will provide a framework to address the challenges identified.

negative: Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying [Image: see text]) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that [Image: see text] has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in [Image: see text], suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.

negative: Canada strengthens pandemic plan in wake of SARS

negative: Induction of labor and risk of third- and fourth-degree perineal tears Objectives The rate of induction of labor (IOL) at term has been increasing over the years. Our objective was to evaluate the risk of third- and fourth-degree perineal tears associated with term induction of labor. This section of the Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology Canada contains the oral, poster, and video abstracts that were to be presented at the SOGC's 76th Annual Clinical and Scientific Conference (ACSC) to have been held from June 9 to 12, 2020, in Ottawa, Ontario, and included as part of the conference proceedings. Due to the global spread of COVID-19 and the increasing health and safety measures being put in place by all levels of government, the SOGC has cancelled the 2020 ACSC. As a result, abstract participants will instead be submitting their presentations with voice-over narration. The presentations will then be posted on the 2020 ACSC Abstract Program page of sogc.org. We invite you to visit this page in early June to participate in the 2020 Abstract Program and to learn about the exciting research being conducted and innovations emerging in the field of obstetrics and gynaecology. There will also be an opportunity to ask authors questions. I would like to thank the entire Abstract Program Committee, the reviewers, and the participants, without whom the ACSC Abstract Program would not be possible. Dr. Alain Gagnon Chair, Abstract Program Committee Methods We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study using the United States' Nationwide Inpatient Sample to evaluate the risk of third- and fourth-degree perineal tears in women who underwent IOL at term between 2005 and 2014. We included all term livebirths and excluded, preterm births, previous cesarean deliveries, multifetal gestations, and non-cephalic presentation. Women who underwent an IOL at term were identified using ICD-9 coding. Patient characteristics were compared between those women being induced at term with those who weren't, and logistic regression analysis were carried out to estimate the adjusted effect of IOL at term with risk of 3rd and 4th perineal tears. Results Among 5,982,945 eligible live births, 1,035,003 (17.3%) underwent an IOL at term, increasing from 15.7% to 18.5%. Women with an IOL were more likely to be older, Caucasian, and with comorbid illnesses. Compared with women who did not undergo an IOL, women in the IOL group had lower risk of cesarean deliveries, 0.89 (0.88–0.89), 2nd degree tears, 0.89 (0.89–0.90), 3rd degree tears, OR 0.81 (95% CI 0.79–0.82) and 4th degree tears, OR 0.84 (95% CI 0.82–0.87). Conclusions Induction of labor at term results in significantly lower risk of third- and fourth-degree perineal tears among all deliveries as well as among women with vaginal deliveries.

negative: Signals of T(h)2 immune response from COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care

negative: Nonstructural proteins NS7b and NS8 are likely to be phylogenetically associated with evolution of 2019-nCoV Abstract The seventh novel human infecting Betacoronavirus that causes pneumonia (2019 novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV) originated in Wuhan, China. The evolutionary relationship between 2019-nCoV and the other human respiratory illness-causing coronavirus is not closely related. We sought to characterize the relationship of the translated proteins of 2019-nCoV with other species of Orthocoronavirinae. A phylogenetic tree was constructed from the genome sequences. A cluster tree was developed from the profiles retrieved from the presence and absence of homologs of ten 2019-nCoV proteins. The combined data were used to characterize the relationship of the translated proteins of 2019-nCoV to other species of Orthocoronavirinae. Our analysis reliably suggests that 2019-nCoV is most closely related to BatCoV RaTG13 and belongs to subgenus Sarbecovirus of Betacoronavirus, together with SARS coronavirus and Bat-SARS-like coronavirus. The phylogenetic profiling cluster of homolog proteins of one annotated 2019-nCoV protein against other genome sequences revealed two clades of ten 2019-nCoV proteins. Clade 1 consisted of a group of conserved proteins in Orthocoronavirinae comprising Orf1ab polyprotein, Nucleocapsid protein, Spike glycoprotein, and Membrane protein. Clade 2 comprised six proteins exclusive to Sarbecovirus and Hibecovirus. Two of six Clade 2 nonstructural proteins, NS7b and NS8, were exclusively conserved among 2019-nCoV, BetaCoV_RaTG, and BatSARS-like Cov. NS7b and NS8 have previously been shown to affect immune response signaling in the SARS-CoV experimental model. Thus, we speculated that knowledge of the functional changes in the NS7b and NS8 proteins during evolution may provide important information to explore the human infective property of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic broke out in Wuhan, China, and it spread rapidly. Since January 23, 2020, China has launched a series of unusual and strict measures, including the lockdown of Wuhan city to contain this highly contagious disease. We collected the epidemiological data to analyze the trend of this epidemic in China. Methods: We closely tracked the Chinese and global official websites to collect the epidemiological information about COVID-19. The number of total and daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China was presented to illustrate the trend of this epidemic. Results: On January 23, 2020, 835 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in China. On February 6, 2020, there were 31211 cases. By February 20, 2020, the number reached as high as 75,993. Most cases were distributed in and around Wuhan, Hubei province. Since January 23, 2020, the number of daily new cases in China except Hubei province reached a peak of 890 on the eleventh day and then it declined to a low level of 34 within two full-length incubation periods (28 days), and the number of daily new cases in Hubei also started to decrease on the twelfth day, from 3156 on February 4, 2020 to 955 on February 15, 2020. Conclusion: The COVID-19 epidemic has been primarily contained in China. The battle against this epidemic in China has provided valuable experiences for the rest of the world. Strict measures need to be taken as earlier as possible to prevent its spread.

negative: Regional difference in the rate of spread of SARS-CoV-2

negative: Mental Health and Psychological Intervention Amid COVID-19 Outbreak: Perspectives from South Korea

negative: Concerns for activated breathing control (ABC) with breast cancer in the era of COVID-19: Maximizing infection control while minimizing heart dose

negative: COVID-19 in Italy: Ageism and Decision-Making in a Pandemic

negative: Cardiovigilance in COVID 19. The COVID19 (Corona Virus Disease: pandemic started in 2019) pandemic has created not only a public health problem, but as a clinical challenge as well. To the cardiologist, COVID 19 presents a wide spectrum of possibilities for clinical decision-making intervention and improvement. Cardiac dysfunction has been identified as a risk factor, a prognostic factor, a diagnostic tool, differential diagnosis, a complication of COVID 19, and a side effect of its treatment. Certain cardiotropic drugs have been implicated in the pathogenesis of COVID 19. The risk of transmission of COVID 19 is an occupational hazard which cannot be ignored by cardiologists. This review discusses the need and scope of cardio vigilance in COVID 19 management.

negative: Mental health during the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic: more is still to be done

negative: How high and long will the COVID-19 wave be? A data-driven approach to model and predict the COVID-19 epidemic and the required capacity for the German health system Background an objective: In March 2020 the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak has been declared as global pandemic. Most countries have implemented numerous social distancing measures in order to limit its transmission and control the outbreak. This study aims to describe the impact of these control measures on the spread of the disease for Italy and Germany, forecast the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in both countries and estimate the medical capacity requirements in terms of hospital beds and intensive care units (ICUs) for optimal clinical treatment of severe and critical COVID-19 patients, for the Germany health system. Methods: We used an exponential decline function to model the trajectory of the daily growth rate of infections in Italy and Germany. A linear regression of the logarithmic growth rate functions of different stages allowed to describe the impact of the social distancing measures leading to a faster decline of the growth rate in both countries. We used the linear model to predict the number of diagnosed and fatal COVID-19 cases from April 10th until May 31st. For Germany we estimated the required daily number of hospital beds and intensive care units (ICU) using clinical observations on the average lengths of a hospital stay for the severe and critical COVID-19 patients. Results: Analyzing the data from Germany and Italy allowed us to identify changes in the trajectory of the growth rate of infection most likely resulted from the various social distancing measures implemented. In Italy a stronger decline in the growth rate was observed around the week of March 17th, whereas for Germany the stronger decline occurred approximately a week later (the week of March 23rd). Under the assumption that the impact of the measures will last, the total size of the outbreak can be estimated to 155,000 cases in Germany (range 140,000-180,000) and to 185,000 cases in Italy (range 175,000-200,000). For Germany the total number of deaths until May 31st is calculated to 3,850 (range 3,500-4,450). Based on the projected number of new COVID-19 cases we expect that the hospital capacity requirements for severe and critical cases in Germany will decline from the 2nd week of April onwards from 13,500 to ~2500 hospital beds (range 1500-4300) and from 2500 to ~500 ICU beds in early May (range 300-800). Conclusion: The modeling effort presented here provides a valuable framework to capture the impact of the social distancing measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in European countries and to forecast the future trend of daily COVID-19 cases. It provides a tool for medical authorities in Germany and other countries to help inform the required hospital capacity of the health care system. Germany appears to be in the middle of the (first) COVID-19 outbreak wave and the German health system is well prepared to handle it with the available capacities.

negative: Patterns of care for inflammatory bowel disease in China during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: 20 Epidemiology, control, and prevention of emerging zoonotic viruses Abstract: Zoonoses are infections in humans transmitted by animal pathogens or animal infections transmitted to humans. Viruses are the main etiological agents of emerging or re-emerging zoonoses. This chapter will discuss the most relevant foodborne and waterborne viral zoonotic infections along with their specific etiological agent, the issue of global and local infections, climate change, clinical manifestations and epidemiology and possible control and prevention measures.

negative: COVID-19 infection among asymptomatic and symptomatic pregnant women: Two weeks of confirmed presentations to an affiliated pair of New York City hospitals Abstract The novel coronavirus 2019, or COVID-19, infection has rapidly spread through the New York metropolitan area since the first reported case in the state on March 1, 2020. New York currently represents an epicenter for COVID-19 infection in the United States, with 84,735 cases reported as of April 2, 2020. We previously presented an early experience with seven COVID-positive patients in pregnancy, including two women who were diagnosed with COVID-19 following an asymptomatic initial presentation. We now describe a series of 43 test-confirmed cases of COVID-19 presenting to a pair of affiliated New York City hospitals over two weeks from March 13 to 27, 2020. Fourteen (32.6%) patients presented without any COVID-associated viral symptoms, and were identified either after developing symptoms during admission or following the implementation of universal testing for all obstetrical admissions on March 22. Of these, 10/14 (71.4%) developed symptoms or signs of COVID-19 infection over the course of their delivery admission or early after postpartum discharge. Of the other 29 (67.4%) patients who presented with symptomatic COVID-19 infection, three women ultimately required antenatal admission for viral symptoms, and an additional patient represented six days postpartum after a successful labor induction with worsening respiratory status that required oxygen supplementation. There were no confirmed cases of COVID-19 detected in neonates upon initial testing on the first day of life. Applying COVID-19 disease severity characteristics as described by Wu et al, 37 (86%) women possessed mild disease, four (9.3%) exhibited severe disease, and two (4.7%) developed critical disease; these percentages are similar to those described for non-pregnant adults with COVID-19 infections (about 80% mild, 15% severe, and 5% critical disease).

negative: Impact of changing case definitions for COVID-19 on the epidemic curve and transmission parameters in mainland China Background: When a new infectious disease emerges, appropriate case definitions are important for clinical diagnosis and also for public health surveillance. Tracking case numbers over time allows us to determine speed of spread and the effectiveness of interventions. Changing case definitions during an epidemic can affect these inferences. Methods: We examined changes in the case definition for COVID-19 in mainland China during the first epidemic wave. We used simple models assuming exponential growth and then exponential decay to estimate how changes in the case definitions affected the numbers of cases reported each day. We then inferred how the epidemic curve would have appeared if the same case definition had been used throughout the epidemic. Findings: From January through to early March 2020, seven versions of the case definition for COVID-19 were issued by the National Health Commission in China. As of February 20, there were 55,508 confirmed cases reported in mainland China. We estimated that when the case definitions were changed from version 1 to 2, version 2 to 4 and version 4 to 5, the proportion of infections being detected as cases were increased by 7.1-fold (95% credible interval (CI): 4.8, 10.9), 2.8-fold (95% CI: 1.9, 4.2) and 4.2-fold (95% CI: 2.6, 7.3) respectively. If the fifth version of the case definition had been applied throughout the outbreak, we estimated that by February 20 there would have been 232,000 (95% CI: 161,000, 359,000) confirmed cases. Interpretation: The case definition was initially narrow, but was gradually broadened to allow detection of more cases as knowledge increased, particularly milder cases and those without epidemiological links to Wuhan or other known cases. This should be taken into account when making inferences on epidemic growth rates and doubling times, and therefore on the reproductive number, to avoid bias. Funding: Commissioned grant from the Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

negative: Real-time observations of the impact of COVID-19 on underwater noise. A slowdown in global trade activity due to COVID-19 has led to a reduction in commercial shipping traffic into the Port of Vancouver. The Ocean Networks Canada observatory system provides researchers real-time access to oceanographic data from a wide range of instruments including hydrophones located along the offshore and inshore approaches to Vancouver. Measurements of power spectral density at 100 Hz from four of these bottom mounted hydrophones are presented, along with AIS data and shipping and trade statistics to assess to what extent the economic impact of COVID-19 can be observed acoustically and in near real-time. The quarterly trend in median weekly noise power in the shipping band of frequencies shows that a reduction in noise commensurate with the economic slowdown has been observed at three of the four hydrophone stations.

negative: Projecting and comparing non-pharmaceutical interventions to contain COVID-19 in major economies Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, and virus-contact tracing can greatly reduce the spread of the virus during a pandemic. In the wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented various NPIs for infection control and mitigation. However, the stringency of the NPIs and the resulting impact among different countries remain unclear due to the lack of quantitative factors. In this study we took a further step to incorporate the effect of the NPIs into the pandemic dynamics model using the concept of policy intensity factor (PIF). This idea enables us to characterize the transition rates as time varying quantities instead of constant values, and thus capturing the dynamical behavior of the basic reproduction number variation in the pandemic. By leveraging a great amount of data reported by the governments and the World Health Organization, we projected the dynamics of the pandemic for the major economies in the world, including the numbers of infected, susceptible, and recovered cases, as well as the pandemic durations. It is observed that the proposed variable-rate susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (VR-SEIR) model fits and projects the pandemic dynamics very well. We further showed that the resulting PIFs correlate with the stringency of NPIs, which allows us to project the final affected numbers of people in those countries when their current NPIs have been imposed for 90, 180, 360 days. It provides a quantitative insight into the effectiveness of the implemented NPIs, and sheds a new light on minimizing both affected people from COVID-19 and the economic impact.

negative: Comorbidity and its Impact on Patients with COVID-19 A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Since then, the virus has made its way across the globe to affect over 180 countries. SARS-CoV-2 has infected humans in all age groups, of all ethnicities, both males and females while spreading through communities at an alarming rate. Given the nature of this virus, there is much still to be learned; however, we know that the clinical manifestations range from a common cold to more severe diseases such as bronchitis, pneumonia, severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), multi-organ failure, and even death. It is believed that COVID-19, in those with underlying health conditions or comorbidities, has an increasingly rapid and severe progression, often leading to death. This paper examined the comorbid conditions, the progression of the disease, and mortality rates in patients of all ages, infected with the ongoing COVID-19 disease. An electronic literature review search was performed, and applicable data was then collected from peer-reviewed articles published from January to April 20, 2020. From what is known at the moment, patients with COVID-19 disease who have comorbidities, such as hypertension or diabetes mellitus, are more likely to develop a more severe course and progression of the disease. Furthermore, older patients, especially those 65 years old and above who have comorbidities and are infected, have an increased admission rate into the intensive care unit (ICU) and mortality from the COVID-19 disease. Patients with comorbidities should take all necessary precautions to avoid getting infected with SARS CoV-2, as they usually have the worst prognosis.

negative: Optimizing Access to Heart Failure Care in Canada during the COVID-19 Pandemic The traditional model of heart failure (HF) care in Canada, which relies upon a multi-disciplinary team and clinic based care processes, has been undermined as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the pandemic continues, we will be challenged to improve or maintain the health status of those with HF by optimizing guideline-directed care despite physical distancing constraints and a reduction in the healthcare workforce. This will require development of new strategies specifically targeted at decreasing the risk of decompensation and resultant HF hospitalization. As such, we must quickly pivot to the adoption and application of novel technologies and revise usual care models, processes, and workflow. The unprecedented COVID-19 crisis has delivered the Canadian HF community a burning platform for the design and implementation of innovative approaches to support the vulnerable population we serve; born out of necessity, we now have the opportunity to explore innovative approaches that may inform the future of HF care delivery in Canada. Herein, we provide perspectives from leadership within the Canadian Heart Failure Society (CHFS) on how to optimize HF care during the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Thrombocytopenia is associated with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections: A meta-analysis BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel infectious disease with lack of established laboratory markers available to evaluate illness severity. In this study, we investigate whether platelet count could differentiate between COVID-19 patients with or without severe disease. Additionally, we evaluate if thrombocytopenia is associated with severe COVID-19. METHODS: An electronic search in Medline, Scopus and Web of Science was performed to identify studies reporting data on platelet count in COVID-19 patients. A meta-analysis was performed, with calculation of weighted mean difference (WMD) of platelet number in COVID-19 patients with or without severe disease and odds ratio (OR) of thrombocytopenia for severe form of COVID-19. RESULTS: Nine studies with 1779 COVID-19 patients, 399 (22.4%) with severe disease, were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled analysis revealed that platelet count was significantly lower in patients with more severe COVID-19 (WMD -31×10(9)/L; 95% CI, from -35 to -29×10(9)/L). A subgroup analysis comparing patients by survival, found an even lower platelet count was observed with mortality (WMD, -48×10(9)/L; 95% CI, -57 to -39×10(9)/L. In the four studies (n=1427) which reported data on rate of thrombocytopenia, a low platelet count was associated with over fivefold enhanced risk of severe COVID-19 (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 1.8-14.6). CONCLUSIONS: Low platelet count is associated with increased risk of severe disease and mortality in patients with COVID-19, and thus should serve as clinical indicator of worsening illness during hospitalization.

negative: Applications of Google Search Trends for risk communication in infectious disease management: A case study of the COVID-19 outbreak in Taiwan OBJECTIVE: An emerging outbreak of a novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has now been detected in at least 211 countries worldwide. Given this pandemic situation, robust risk communication is urgently needed, particularly in affected countries. Therefore, this study explored the potential use of Google Trends (GT) to monitor public restlessness toward COVID-19 infection in Taiwan. METHODS: We retrieved GT data for the specific locations and subregions in Taiwan nationwide using defined search terms related to the coronavirus, handwashing, and face masks. RESULTS: Searches related to COVID-19 and face masks in Taiwan rapidly increased following the announcements of Taiwan's first imported case and reached a peak as locally acquired cases were reported. However, searches for handwashing gradually increased during the period of face-mask shortage. Moreover, high to moderate correlations between Google relative search volumes (RSVs) and COVID-19 cases were found in Taipei (lag-3), New Taipei (lag-2), Taoyuan (lag-2), Tainan (lag-1), Taichung (lag0), and Kaohsiung (lag0). CONCLUSION: In response to the ongoing outbreak, our results demonstrated that GT could potentially define the proper timing and location for practicing appropriate risk communication strategies for affected populations.

negative: Systematic review and meta-analysis of predictive symptoms and comorbidities for severe COVID-19 infection Background/introduction COVID−19, a novel coronavirus outbreak starting in China, is now a rapidly developing public health emergency of international concern. The clinical spectrum of COVID−19 disease is varied, and identifying factors associated with severe disease has been described as an urgent research priority. It has been noted that elderly patients with pre-existing comorbidities are more vulnerable to more severe disease. However, the specific symptoms and comorbidities that most strongly predict disease severity are unclear. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the symptoms and comorbidities predictive of COVID−19 severity. Method This study was prospectively registered on PROSPERO. A literature search was performed in three databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Global Health) for studies indexed up to 5th March 2020. Two reviewers independently screened the literature and both also completed data extraction. Quality appraisal of studies was performed using the STROBE checklist. Random effects meta-analysis was performed for selected symptoms and comorbidities to identify those most associated with severe COVID−19 infection or ICU admission. Results Of the 2259 studies identified, 42 were selected after title and abstract analysis, and 7 studies (including 1813 COVID−19 patients) were chosen for inclusion. The ICU group were older (62.4 years) compared to the non-ICU group (46 years), with a significantly higher proportion of males (67.2% vs. 57.1%, p=0.04). Dyspnoea was the only significant symptom predictive for both severe disease (pOR 3.70, 95% CI 1.83 − 7.46) and ICU admission (pOR 6.55, 95% CI 4.28 − 10.0). Notwithstanding the low prevalence of COPD in severe disease and ICU-admitted groups (4.5% and 9.7%, respectively), COPD was the most strongly predictive comorbidity for both severe disease (pOR 6.42, 95% CI 2.44 − 16.9) and ICU admission (pOR 17.8, 95% CI 6.56 − 48.2). Cardiovascular disease and hypertension were also strongly predictive for both severe disease and ICU admission. Those with CVD and hypertension were 4.4 (95% CI 2.64 − 7.47) and 3.7 (95% CI 2.22 − 5.99) times more likely to have an ICU admission respectively, compared to patients without the comorbidity. Conclusions Dyspnoea was the only symptom strongly predictive for both severe disease and ICU admission, and could be useful in guiding clinical management decisions early in the course of illness. When looking at ICU-admitted patients, who represent the more severe end of the spectrum of clinical severity, COPD patients are particularly vulnerable, and those with cardiovascular disease and hypertension are also at a high-risk of severe illness. To aid clinical assessment, risk stratification, efficient resource allocation, and targeted public health interventions, future research must aim to further define those at high-risk of severe illness with COVID−19.

negative: The Contribution of Age Structure to the Number of Deaths from Covid-19 in the UK by Geographical Units This study investigates the contribution of population age structure to mortality from Covid-19 in the UK by geographical units. We project death rates at various spatial scales by applying data on age-specific fatality rates to the area's population by age and sex. Our analysis shows a significant variation in the projected death rates between the constituent countries of the UK, between its regions and within regions. First, Scotland and Wales have higher projected fatality levels from Covid-19 than England, whereas Northern Ireland has lower rate. Second, the infection fatality rates are projected to be substantially higher in small towns and rural areas than those in large urban areas. Third, our analysis shows that within urban regions there are also 'pockets' of high projected death rates. Overall, the areas with high and low fatality rates tend to cluster because of the high residential separation of different population age-groups in the UK. Our analysis also reveals that the Welsh-, Gaelic- and Cornish-speaking communities with relatively old populations are likely to experience heavy population losses if the virus spreads widely across the UK.

negative: Public health in Canada: a difficult history. Although the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2003 was the event that focused attention on Canada's capacity in public health, there have been, and will be, many other public health challenges, not just in the form of outbreaks but of a diverse set of threats to health, both infectious and non-infectious. Like many other countries, Canada must face the challenge of building and sustaining the capacity to respond to this broad range of challenges. Recently, there has been an emphasis on strengthening the public health infrastructure, including inter-jurisdictional agreements, research, knowledge translation, information systems and the workforce.

negative: Intensive care management of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): challenges and recommendations Summary As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spreads across the world, the intensive care unit (ICU) community must prepare for the challenges associated with this pandemic. Streamlining of workflows for rapid diagnosis and isolation, clinical management, and infection prevention will matter not only to patients with COVID-19, but also to health-care workers and other patients who are at risk from nosocomial transmission. Management of acute respiratory failure and haemodynamics is key. ICU practitioners, hospital administrators, governments, and policy makers must prepare for a substantial increase in critical care bed capacity, with a focus not just on infrastructure and supplies, but also on staff management. Critical care triage to allow the rationing of scarce ICU resources might be needed. Researchers must address unanswered questions, including the role of repurposed and experimental therapies. Collaboration at the local, regional, national, and international level offers the best chance of survival for the critically ill.

negative: An international comparison analysis of reserve and supply system for emergency medical supplies between China, the United States, Australia, and Canada Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has become a pandemic around the world. With the explosive growth of confirmed cases, emergency medical supplies are facing global shortage, which restricts the treatment of seriously ill patients and protection of medical staff. Taking China, the United States, Australia, and Canada as examples, this study compares and analyzes the reserve and supply systems of emergency medical supplies and problems exposed in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. Some common problems were found, such as insufficient types and quantities of emergency medical supplies in reserve, insufficient emergency production capacity, and imperfect command mechanism for emergency supplies deployment and transportation. A sound reserve system of emergency medical supplies is the basis and guarantee for dealing with public health emergencies such as major outbreaks. Based on the comparison of systems and practical experience, countries around the world should further improve the reserve and supply system of emergency medical supplies, and improve the coordination and cooperation mechanism for emergency supplies for international public health emergencies, so as to cope with increasingly severe public health emergencies in the context of globalization.

negative: How will this continue? Modelling interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses Much of the uncertainty about the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic stems from questions about when and how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) by governments, in particular social distancing measures, are implemented, to what extent the population complies with these measures, and how compliance changes through time. Further uncertainty comes from a lack of knowledge of the potential effects of removing interventions once the epidemic is declining. By combining an epidemiological model of COVID-19 for the United Kingdom with simple sub-models for these societal processes, this study aims to shed light on the conceivable trajectories that the pandemic might follow over the next 1.5 years. We show strong improvements in outcomes if governments review NPI more frequently whereas, in comparison, the stability of compliance has surprisingly small effects on cumulative mortality. Assuming that mortality does considerably increase once a country's hospital capacity is breached, we show that the inherent randomness of societal processes can lead to a wide range of possible outcomes, both in terms of disease dynamics and mortality, even when the principles according to which policy and population operate are identical.. Our model is easily modified to take other aspects of the socio-pandemic interaction into account.

negative: Effectiveness of glucocorticoid therapy in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019: protocol of a randomized controlled trial BACKGROUND: At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China, and its causative organism has been subsequently designated the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The effectiveness of adjunctive glucocorticoid therapy in the management of 2019-nCoV-infected patients with severe lower respiratory tract infections is not clear, and warrants further investigation. METHODS: The present study will be conducted as an open-labeled, randomized, controlled trial. We will enrol 48 subjects from Chongqing Public Health Medical Center. Each eligible subject will be assigned to an intervention group (methylprednisolone via intravenous injection at a dose of 1–2 mg/kg/day for 3 days) or a control group (no glucocorticoid use) randomly, at a 1:1 ratio. Subjects in both groups will be invited for 28 days of follow-up which will be scheduled at four consecutive visit points. We will use the clinical improvement rate as our primary endpoint. Secondary endpoints include the timing of clinical improvement after intervention, duration of mechanical ventilation, duration of hospitalization, overall incidence of adverse events, as well as rate of adverse events at each visit, and mortality at 2 and 4 weeks. DISCUSSION: The present coronavirus outbreak is the third serious global coronavirus outbreak in the past two decades. Oral and parenteral glucocorticoids have been used in the management of severe respiratory symptoms in coronavirus-infected patients in the past. However, there remains no definitive evidence in the literature for or against the utilization of systemic glucocorticoids in seriously ill patients with coronavirus-related severe respiratory disease, or indeed in other types of severe respiratory disease. In this study, we hope to discover evidence either supporting or opposing the systemic therapeutic administration of glucocorticoids in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, ChiCTR2000029386, http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=48777.

negative: Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change. There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.

negative: Patterns of the COVID19 epidemic spread around the world: exponential vs power laws We have analyzed the COVID19 epidemic data of more than 174 countries (excluding China) in the period between January 22 and March 28, 2020. We found that some countries (such as the US, the UK, and Canada) follow an exponential epidemic growth, while others (like Italy and several other European countries) show a power law like growth. At the same time, regardless of the best fitting law, most countries can be shown to follow a trajectory similar to that of Italy, but with varying degrees of delay. We found that countries with ``younger" epidemics tend to exhibit more exponential like behavior, while countries that are closer behind Italy tend to follow a power law growth. We hypothesize that there is a universal growth pattern of this infection that starts off as exponential and subsequently becomes more power law like. Although it cannot be excluded that this growth pattern is a consequence of social distancing measures, an alternative explanation is that it is an intrinsic epidemic growth law, dictated by a spatially distributed community structure, where the growth in individual highly mixed communities is exponential but the longer term, local geographical spread (in the absence of global mixing) results in a power-law. This is supported by computer simulations of a metapopulation model that gives rise to predictions about the growth dynamics that are consistent with correlations found in the epidemiological data. Therefore, seeing a deviation from straight exponential growth may not be a consequence of working non-pharmaceutical interventions (except for, perhaps, restricting the air travel). Instead, this is a normal course of raging infection spread. On the practical side, this cautions us against overly optimistic interpretations of the countries epidemic development and emphasizes the need to continue improving the compliance with social distancing behavior recommendations.

negative: Questions concerning the New Haven Coronavirus

negative: Characteristics, symptom management and outcomes of 101 patients with COVID-19 referred for hospital palliative care Abstract Hospital palliative care is an essential part of the COVID-19 response but data are lacking. We identified symptom burden, management, response to treatment, and outcomes for a case series of 101 in-patients with confirmed COVID-19 referred to hospital palliative care. Patients (64 male, median [IQR] age 82 [72-89] years, Elixhauser Comorbidity Index 6 [2-10], Australian-modified Karnofsky Performance Status 20 [10-20]), were most frequently referred for end of life care or symptom control. Median [IQR] days from hospital admission to referral was 4 [1-12] days. Most prevalent symptoms (n) were breathlessness (67), agitation (43), drowsiness (36), pain (23) and delirium (24). Fifty-eight patients were prescribed a subcutaneous infusion. Frequently used medicines (median-maximum dose/24h) were opioids (morphine, 10-30mg; fentanyl, 100-200mcg; alfentanil 500-1000 mcg) and midazolam (10-20mg). Infusions were assessed as at least partially effective for 40/58 patients, while 13 patients died before review. Patients spent a median [IQR] of 2 [1–4] days under the palliative care team, who made 3 [2–5] contacts across patient, family and clinicians. At March 30 2020, 75 patients had died, 13 been discharged back to team, home or hospice, and 13 continued to receive inpatient palliative care. Palliative care is an essential component to the COVID-19 response, and teams must rapidly adapt with new ways of working. Breathlessness and agitation are common but respond well to opioids and benzodiazepines. Availability of subcutaneous infusion pumps is essential. An international minimum dataset for palliative care would accelerate finding answers to new questions as the COVID-19 pandemic develops.

negative: PCR Amplification and Sequencing Analysis of Full-Length Turkey Coronavirus Spike Gene Turkey coronaviral enteritis caused by turkey coronavirus (TCoV) continues to infect turkey flocks, resulting in significant economic loss. Determining and understanding genetic relationships among different TCoV isolates or strains is important for controlling the disease. Using two-step RT-PCR assays that amplify the full length of TCoV spike (S) gene, TCoV isolates can be sequenced, analyzed, and genotyped. Described in this chapter is the protocol on PCR amplification and sequencing analysis of full-length TCoV S gene. Such protocol is useful in molecular epidemiology for establishing an effective strategy to control the transmission of TCoV among turkey flocks.

negative: Clinical course and outcomes of critically ill patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection. BACKGROUND Since September 2012, 170 confirmed infections with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have been reported to the World Health Organization, including 72 deaths. Data on critically ill patients with MERS-CoV infection are limited. OBJECTIVE To describe the critical illness associated with MERS-CoV. DESIGN Case series. SETTING 3 intensive care units (ICUs) at 2 tertiary care hospitals in Saudi Arabia. PATIENTS 12 patients with confirmed or probable MERS-CoV infection. MEASUREMENTS Presenting symptoms, comorbid conditions, pulmonary and extrapulmonary manifestations, measures of severity of illness and organ failure, ICU course, and outcome are described, as are the results of surveillance of health care workers (HCWs) and patients with potential exposure. RESULTS Between December 2012 and August 2013, 114 patients were tested for suspected MERS-CoV; of these, 11 ICU patients (10%) met the definition of confirmed or probable cases. Three of these patients were part of a health care-associated cluster that also included 3 HCWs. One HCW became critically ill and was the 12th patient in this case series. Median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 28 (range, 16 to 36). All 12 patients had underlying comorbid conditions and presented with acute severe hypoxemic respiratory failure. Most patients (92%) had extrapulmonary manifestations, including shock, acute kidney injury, and thrombocytopenia. Five (42%) were alive at day 90. Of the 520 exposed HCWs, only 4 (1%) were positive. LIMITATION The sample size was small. CONCLUSION MERS-CoV causes severe acute hypoxemic respiratory failure and considerable extrapulmonary organ dysfunction and is associated with high mortality. Community-acquired and health care-associated MERS-CoV infection occurs in patients with chronic comorbid conditions. The health care-associated cluster suggests that human-to-human transmission does occur with unprotected exposure. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

negative: DIC in COVID‐19: Implications for Prognosis and Treatment? The ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic is an exceptional challenge for the health systems throughout the world. So far, no causative therapy nor protective vaccines are available. In several countries, the capacities for intensive care and for support in case of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are overstretched, and the mortality is considerable. In this situation, useful prognostic parameters and targeted supportive treatment are urgently needed.

negative: Cardiovascular Considerations for Patients, Health Care Workers, and Health Systems During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic Abstract The coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 that has significant implications for the cardiovascular care of patients. First, those with COVID-19 and preexisting cardiovascular disease (CVD) have an increased risk of severe disease and death. Second, infection has been associated with multiple direct and indirect cardiovascular complications including acute myocardial injury, myocarditis, arrhythmias and venous thromboembolism. Third, therapies under investigation for COVID-19 may have cardiovascular side effects. Fourth, the response to COVID-19 can compromise the rapid triage of non-COVID-19 patients with cardiovascular conditions. Finally, the provision of cardiovascular care may place health care workers in a position of vulnerability as they become host or vectors of virus transmission. We hereby review the peer-reviewed and preprint literature pertaining to cardiovascular considerations related to COVID-19 and highlight gaps in knowledge that require further study pertinent to patients, health care workers, and health systems.

negative: Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review. Background: Faced with the global pandemic of COVID-19, declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th 2020, and the need to better understand the seasonal behavior of the virus, our team conducted this systematic review to describe current knowledge about the emergence and replicability of the virus and its correlation with different weather factors such as temperature and relative humidity. Methods: The review was registered with the PROSPERO database. The electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, LILACS, OpenGrey and Google Scholar were examined with the searches restricted to the years 2019 and 2020. Risk of bias assessment was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist tool. The GRADE tool was used to assess the quality of the evidence. Results: The initial screening identified 517 articles. After examination of the full texts, seventeen studies met the review's eligibility criteria. Great homogeneity was observed in the findings regarding the effect of temperature and humidity on the seasonal viability and transmissibility of COVID-19. Cold and dry conditions were potentiating factors on the spread of the virus. After quality assessment, four studies had a high risk of bias and thirteen studies were scored as moderate risk of bias. The certainty of evidence was graded as low for both outcomes evaluated. Conclusion: Considering the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The certainty of the evidence generated was graded as low. However, these variables alone could not explain most of the variability in disease transmission.

negative: The United States and Canada as a coupled epidemiological system: An example from hepatitis A BACKGROUND: Hepatitis A (HA) is a low-incidence, non-endemic disease in Canada and the United States (US). However, a large difference in HA incidence between Canada and HA-endemic countries has made travel an important contributor to hepatitis A prevalence in Canada. There is also a (smaller) incidence differential between Canada and the US. Although the US has only moderately higher HA incidence, the volume of travel by Canadians to the US is many times higher than travel volume to endemic countries. Hence, travel to the US may constitute a source of low to moderate risk for Canadian travelers. To our knowledge, travel to the US has never been included as a potential risk factor for HA infection in Canadian epidemiologic analyses. The objective of this study was to use dynamic models to investigate the possible effects on hepatitis A incidence in Canada due to (1) implementing vaccination in the US, and (2) varying the volume of travel by Canadians to the US. METHODS: We developed and analyzed age-structured compartmental models for the transmission and vaccination of hepatitis A, for both Canada and the US. Models were parameterized using data on seroprevalence, case reporting, and travel patterns. The potential effect of hepatitis A prevalence in the US on hepatitis A prevalence in Canada was captured through a term representing infection of Canadians due to travel in the US. RESULTS: The model suggests that approximately 22% of HA cases in Canada in the mid 1990s may have been attributable to travel to the US. A universal vaccination programme that attained 70% coverage in young children in the US in the mid 1990s could have reduced Canadian incidence by 21% within 5 years. CONCLUSION: Since not all necessary data were available to parameterize the model, the results should be considered exploratory. However, the analysis shows that, under plausible assumptions, the US may be more important for determining HA prevalence in Canada than is currently supposed. As international travel continues to grow, making vaccination policies ever more relevant to populations beyond a country's borders, such multi-country models will most likely come into wider use as predictive aids for policy development.

negative: Evaluating COVID-19 Public Health Messaging in Italy: Self-Reported Compliance and Growing Mental Health Concerns Purpose: The COVID-19 death-rate in Italy continues to climb, surpassing that in every other country. We implement one of the first nationally representative surveys about this unprecedented public health crisis and use it to evaluate the Italian government's public health efforts and citizen responses. Findings: (1) Public health messaging is being heard. At this point, the Italian people understand how to keep themselves and others safe from the SARS-Cov-2 virus. This is true for all population groups we studied, with the partial exception of slightly lower compliance among young adults. Remarkably, even those who do not trust the government, and those who think the government has been untruthful about the crisis mostly believe the public health message and claim to be acting in accordance. (2) The quarantine is beginning to have serious negative effects on the population's mental health. Policy Recommendations: Public health messaging is being heard and understood. The focus now should move from explaining that citizens should stay at home to what they can do at home. We need interventions that make staying at home and following public health protocols more desirable, or possibly even fun. These interventions could include virtual social interactions, such as online social reading activities, classes, exercise routines, among others - all designed to reduce the boredom of being socially isolated for long periods of time and to increase the attractiveness of following public health recommendations. Interventions like these will grow in importance as the crisis wears on around the world, and staying inside wears on people.

negative: Do not violate the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 outbreak

negative: Asymptomatic novel coronavirus pneumonia patient outside Wuhan: The value of CT images in the course of the disease Abstract The purpose of this case report is to describe the imaging and associated clinical features of an asymptomatic novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) patient outside Wuhan, China. The principle findings are that in this patient with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, CT findings preceded symptoms and included bilateral pleural effusions, previously not reported in association with COVID-19. The role of this case report is promotion of potential recognition amongst radiologists of this new disease, which has been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization (WHO).

negative: How to handle patients with autoimmune rheumatic and inflammatory bowel diseases in the COVID-19 era: An expert opinion • A correct patient risk stratification is of paramount importance for the proper management of economic and human resources. • It's fundamental to prioritize clinical trials evaluating dosing, prophylaxis, and treatment with immunosuppressant in COVID-19 in order to avoid either an overuse and a treatment shortage. • Future controlled studies may highlight in our patients a potential preventive role of immunosuppressant therapies in the development of severe forms of Covid-19. • Despite the overall risk of infection in rheumatic and gastroenterological diseases a conclusive association between these diseases and COVID −19 remains questionable.

negative: Medical imaging informatics research and development trends—an editorial

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: a comprehensive review The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus was first identified in 2012 and has since then remained uncontrolled. Cases have been mostly reported in the Middle East, however travel-associated cases and outbreaks have also occurred. Nosocomial and zoonotic transmission of the virus appear to be the most important routes. The infection is severe and highly fatal thus necessitating rapid and efficacious interventions. Here, we performed a comprehensive review of published literature and summarized the epidemiology of the virus. In addition, we summarized the virological aspects of the infection and reviewed the animal models used as well as vaccination and antiviral tested against it.

negative: Update in Pediatric Hospital Medicine Pediatric Hospital Medicine has significantly developed as a field over the past two decades. With the goal of improving care for hospitalized children, much of the research in this field has focused on reducing unnecessary interventions, optimizing necessary treatments, and reducing variability for common inpatient conditions. While this is far from an exhaustive chapter on the vast diversity and advances in this field, it focuses on the updates for some of the top diagnoses in hospital medicine and the major trends in the field. Updated management of acute viral bronchiolitis, urinary tract infections, neonatal infections, brief resolved unexplained events (formerly, apparent life-threatening events), and osteomyelitis are highlighted with emphasis on major management changes. In addition, and distinct to pediatric hospital medicine, the topics of overuse and high value care are discussed as they have gained momentum in influencing the way hospitalists think and practice.

negative: The association between international and domestic air traffic and the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic. Many countries are facing increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases, which are, in their origin mostly attributed to regular international flight connections with China. This study aims to investigate this relation by analyzing available data on air traffic volume and the spread of COVID-19 cases. METHODS: and findings: We analyzed available data on current domestic and international passenger volume and flight routes and compared these to the distribution of domestic and international COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: Our data indicate a strong linear correlation between domestic COVID-19 cases and passenger volume for regions within China (r(2) = 0.92, p = 0.19) and a significant correlation between international COVID-19 cases and passenger volume (r(2) = 0.98, p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The number of flight routes as well as total passenger volume are highly relevant risk factors for the spread of current COVID-19. Multiple regions within Asia, as well as some in North America and Europe are at serious risk of constant exposure to COVID-19 from China and other highly infected countries. Risk for COVID-19 exposure remains relatively low in South America and Africa. If adequate measures are taken, including on-site disease detection and temporary passenger quarantine, limited but not terminated air traffic can be a feasible option to prevent a long-term crisis. Reasonable risk calculations and case evaluations per passenger volume are crucial aspects which must be considered when reducing international flights.

negative: Epidemiological features and medical care-seeking process of patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate the epidemiological and clinical features, and medical care-seeking process of patients with the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, to provide useful information to contain COVID-19 in other places with similar outbreaks of the virus. METHODS: We collected epidemiological and clinical information of patients with COVID-19 admitted to a makeshift Fangcang hospital between 7 and 26 February, 2020. The waiting time of each step during the medical care-seeking process was also analysed. RESULTS: Of the 205 patients with COVID-19 infection, 31% had presumed transmission from a family member. 10% of patients had hospital-related transmission. It took as long as a median of 6 days from the first medical visit to receive the COVID-19 nucleic acid test and 10 days from the first medical visit to hospital admission, indicating early recognition of COVID-19 was not achieved at the early stage of the outbreak, although these delays were shortened later. After clinical recovery from COVID-19, which took a mean of 21 days from illness onset, there was still a substantial proportion of patients who had persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic evaluation process of suspected patients needs to be accelerated at the epicentre of the outbreak and early isolation of infected patients in a healthcare setting rather than at home is urgently required to stop the spread of the virus. Clinical recovery is not an appropriate criterion to release isolated patients and as long as 4 weeks' isolation for patients with COVID-19 is not enough to prevent the spread of the virus.

negative: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Quarantine

negative: Systematic review and critical appraisal of prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 infection Objective To review and critically appraise published and preprint reports of models that aim to predict either (i) presence of existing COVID-19 infection, (ii) future complications in individuals already diagnosed with COVID-19, or (iii) models to identify individuals at high risk for COVID-19 in the general population. Design Rapid systematic review and critical appraisal of prediction models for diagnosis or prognosis of COVID-19 infection. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE via Ovid, Arxiv, medRxiv and bioRxiv until 24th March 2020. Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable COVID-19 related prediction model. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full text. Data extraction Data from included studies were extracted independently by at least two authors based on the CHARMS checklist, and risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. Data were extracted on various domains including the participants, predictors, outcomes, data analysis, and prediction model performance. Results 2696 titles were screened. Of these, 27 studies describing 31 prediction models were included for data extraction and critical appraisal. We identified three models to predict hospital admission from pneumonia and other events (as a proxy for covid-19 pneumonia) in the general population; 18 diagnostic models to detect COVID-19 infection in symptomatic individuals (13 of which were machine learning utilising computed tomography (CT) results); and ten prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to a severe state, or length of hospital stay. Only one of these studies used data on COVID-19 cases outside of China. Most reported predictors of presence of COVID-19 in suspected patients included age, body temperature, and signs and symptoms. Most reported predictors of severe prognosis in infected patients included age, sex, features derived from CT, C-reactive protein, lactic dehydrogenase, and lymphocyte count. Estimated C-index estimates for the prediction models ranged from 0.73 to 0.81 in those for the general population (reported for all 3 general population models), from 0.81 to > 0.99 in those for diagnosis (reported for 13 of the 18 diagnostic models), and from 0.85 to 0.98 in those for prognosis (reported for 6 of the 10 prognostic models). All studies were rated at high risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, and poor statistical analysis, including high risk of model overfitting. Reporting quality varied substantially between studies. A description of the study population and intended use of the models was absent in almost all reports, and calibration of predictions was rarely assessed. Conclusion COVID-19 related prediction models are quickly entering the academic literature, to support medical decision making at a time where this is urgently needed. Our review indicates proposed models are poorly reported and at high risk of bias. Thus, their reported performance is likely optimistic and using them to support medical decision making is not advised. We call for immediate sharing of the individual participant data from COVID-19 studies to support collaborative efforts in building more rigorously developed prediction models and validating (evaluating) existing models. The aforementioned predictors identified in multiple included studies could be considered as candidate predictors for new models. We also stress the need to follow methodological guidance when developing and validating prediction models, as unreliable predictions may cause more harm than benefit when used to guide clinical decisions. Finally, studies should adhere to the TRIPOD statement to facilitate validating, appraising, advocating and clinically using the reported models. Systematic review registration protocol: osf.io/ehc47/, registration: osf.io/wy245

negative: Rapid implementation of mobile technology for real-time epidemiology of COVID-19 The rapid pace of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic (COVID-19) presents challenges to the robust collection of population-scale data to address this global health crisis. We established the COronavirus Pandemic Epidemiology (COPE) consortium to bring together scientists with expertise in big data research and epidemiology to develop a COVID-19 Symptom Tracker mobile application that we launched in the UK on March 24, 2020 and the US on March 29, 2020 garnering more than 2.8 million users as of May 2, 2020. This mobile application offers data on risk factors, herald symptoms, clinical outcomes, and geographical hot spots. This initiative offers critical proof-of-concept for the repurposing of existing approaches to enable rapidly scalable epidemiologic data collection and analysis which is critical for a data-driven response to this public health challenge.

negative: Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

negative: Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the earliest-affected areas in Italy: 1 Mass screening for SARS-CoV-2 serological positivity (SARS-2-SCREEN). Background Several municipalities in the Lombardy Region have been affected by the SARS-CoV-2 infection since the earliest stages of the epidemic. To date, 89442 confirmed cases have been diagnosed in Lombardy, and mortality in several municipalities has already surpassed that of the past decade. Currently, the true extent of the SARS-CoV-2 infection remains unknown as several affected subjects may have been asymptomatic or have presented mild disease, thus not resulting in the identified COVID-19 cases. Methods This cross-sectional study aims to define the spread of infection within the population by determining the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies directed against SARS-CoV-2 by rapid immunochromatographic testing and subsequent confirmation by serology on venous blood by liquid phase immunochemical testing, also allowing to compare the two methods. Testing will be performed on adults and minors residing, domiciled or working in several municipalities of the Lombardy Region, involved in the initial stages of the epidemic. The study will include rapid finger-prick testing and venous sampling for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2, and nasopharyngeal swabbing (NPS). Concurrent notification of test results will occur via the regional healthcare information system (SISS). Discussion This study was developed with the desire to understand the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the epidemiological transmission characteristics of this virus. Understanding the spread and severity of the disease could help in the implementation of effective infection surveillance containment and countermeasures facilitating the identification of cases that have been exposed to the virus and the traceability of contacts. This study has been approved by the Ethics Committee of the University of Milan (35/2020).

negative: Media Portrayal of Nurses' Perspectives and Concerns in the SARS Crisis in Toronto Purpose: To describe nursing work life issues as portrayed in the media during the SARS crisis in Toronto. Methods: Content analysis of local and national news media documents in Canada. Media articles were sorted and classified by topic, and themes were identified. Findings: Themes were: (a) changing schemas of nursing practice: the new normal; (b) barriers to relational nursing work; (c) work life concerns: retention and recruitment; (d) nursing virtue: nurses as heroes and professionals; (e) paradoxical responses to nurses from the community; and (f) leadership in nursing during the SARS crisis. Conclusions: This analysis enhanced understanding of how nurses are portrayed in the media, but it indicated the significance of quality of work life and issues about work‐home life. Some descriptions of the care and caring of nurses have made nursing seem like an important and influential profession to potential applicants who might previously have dismissed nursing as a career.

negative: Value of Pharmacy-Based Influenza Surveillance — Ontario, Canada, 2009 As part of ongoing efforts by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) to enhance disease surveillance, a retrospective epidemiologic study was undertaken to investigate the usefulness for influenza surveillance of data on changes in the volume of prescriptions for antiviral medications. The weekly numbers of dispensed prescriptions for the antiviral medications oseltamivir and zanamivir, as a proportion of all dispensed prescriptions, were compared with the numbers of confirmed laboratory reports of influenza A(H1N1) at the local health authority level in Ontario, Canada, during the second wave of the outbreak of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in 2009. Qualitative and quantitative analyses demonstrated that antiviral prescription dispensing dates were a reasonable proxy for influenza A(H1N1) onset dates at the local health authority level. This report describes the results of those analyses, which indicated that 1) antiviral prescription proportions increased in advance of laboratory reports of influenza and 2) antiviral dispensing data can be available in near real-time. These findings suggest that pharmacy prescription data can provide timely intelligence to help characterize local influenza activity.

negative: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-Cov) screening of exposed healthcare workers in a tertiary care hospital in Saudi Arabia

negative: The effect of China's open-door tourism policy on Taiwan: Promoting or suppressing tourism from other countries to Taiwan? This study employs an extended gravity model to analyse the complementarity or competitiveness relationship of the number of inbound tourists and corresponding tourism revenue between China and 19 other nations under the implementation of China's Open-door Tourism Policy to Taiwan in 2008. A simulation for 2018–2021 demonstrates the sustained impact of this policy. The results show that the number of tourists to Taiwan from China reached its peak in 2015 at 41% and will decrease to 9% by 2021. The corresponding tourism revenue will decrease from 49% to 11% over the same period. The results also show that if the number of tourists from China remains above 836,772, the number of tourists from Japan, Hong Kong, Australasia, North America, and Europe will still increase. However, the number of tourists from South Korea and South and Southeast Asia will increase continuously regardless of tourists from China, even far below 836,772.

negative: COVID-19 in Children with Brain-Based Developmental Disabilities: A Rapid Review Background. The prevalence of symptomatic COVID-19 in children remains low to date. In just a few months, COVID-19 has affected millions of people worldwide, and as of the date of this publication, the pandemic continues. Based on the current available evidence, children do not appear to be at higher risk of contracting COVID-19 than adults. However, children with neurological and neuromuscular conditions are vulnerable to the respiratory complications of other viral infections. Objectives. To assess whether children with brain-based developmental disabilities were more likely to develop COVID-19 and have complications or poorer outcomes following infection. Methods. We conducted a two-week rapid review on studies with primary data regarding children aged between zero and 18 years old with brain-based developmental disabilities, or who were at risk of developing such disabilities, with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. We performed our literature searches on April 18, 2020. Results. Our search strategy identified 538 individual records, of which four were included in our review. Of the 50 COVID-19 pediatric patients reported in the included studies, a total of seven children were at risk of developing brain-based disabilities. Symptoms ranged in severity. However, generally, patients were discharged or saw improvements in their symptoms by the end of the study period. No deaths were reported. Discussion. Our study highlights a knowledge gap regarding the impact of COVID-19 in children with brain-based developmental disabilities.

negative: A Randomized Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Postexposure Prophylaxis for Covid-19 BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) occurs after exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For persons who are exposed, the standard of care is observation and quarantine. Whether hydroxychloroquine can prevent symptomatic infection after SARS-CoV-2 exposure is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial across the United States and parts of Canada testing hydroxychloroquine as postexposure prophylaxis. We enrolled adults who had household or occupational exposure to someone with confirmed Covid-19 at a distance of less than 6 ft for more than 10 minutes while wearing neither a face mask nor an eye shield (high-risk exposure) or while wearing a face mask but no eye shield (moderate-risk exposure). Within 4 days after exposure, we randomly assigned participants to receive either placebo or hydroxychloroquine (800 mg once, followed by 600 mg in 6 to 8 hours, then 600 mg daily for 4 additional days). The primary outcome was the incidence of either laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 or illness compatible with Covid-19 within 14 days. RESULTS: We enrolled 821 asymptomatic participants. Overall, 87.6% of the participants (719 of 821) reported a high-risk exposure to a confirmed Covid-19 contact. The incidence of new illness compatible with Covid-19 did not differ significantly between participants receiving hydroxychloroquine (49 of 414 [11.8%]) and those receiving placebo (58 of 407 [14.3%]); the absolute difference was −2.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval, −7.0 to 2.2; P=0.35). Side effects were more common with hydroxychloroquine than with placebo (40.1% vs. 16.8%), but no serious adverse reactions were reported. CONCLUSIONS: After high-risk or moderate-risk exposure to Covid-19, hydroxychloroquine did not prevent illness compatible with Covid-19 or confirmed infection when used as postexposure prophylaxis within 4 days after exposure. (Funded by David Baszucki and Jan Ellison Baszucki and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04308668.)

negative: Oncology Nursing During a Pandemic: Critical Reflections in the Context of COVID-19 Abstract Objectives To provide a critical reflection of COVID-19 in the context of oncology nursing and provide recommendations for caring for people affected by cancer during this pandemic. Data sources Electronic databases including CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Scopus, professional websites, and grey literature were searched using Google scholar. Conclusion Nurses are key stakeholders in developing and implementing policies regarding standards of care during COVID-19 pandemic. This pandemic poses several challenges for oncology services. Oncology nurses are providing a pivotal role in the care and management of the novel COVID-19 in the year landmarked as the International Year of the Nurse. Implications for practice It is too early to tell what shape this pandemic will take and its impact on oncology care. However, several important clinical considerations have been discussed to inform oncology nursing care and practice.

negative: Molecular immune pathogenesis and diagnosis of COVID-19 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a kind of viral pneumonia which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has been marked as the third introduction of a highly pathogenic coronavirus into the human population after the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the twenty-first century. In this minireview, we provide a brief introduction of the general features of SARS-CoV-2 and discuss current knowledge of molecular immune pathogenesis, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 on the base of the present understanding of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections, which may be helpful in offering novel insights and potential therapeutic targets for combating the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: Tracking the origin of early COVID-19 cases in Canada Abstract The original coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China has become a global pandemic. By tracking the earliest 118 COVID-19 cases in Canada, we produced a Voronoi treemap to show the travel origins of the country’s earliest COVID-19 cases. By March 11, 2020, even though the majority (64.1%) of the world’s COVID-19 confirmed cases still had their origin in China, only 7.6% of Canada’s first 118 COVID-19 cases arose due in travelers to China. The most commonly reported travel history among the 118 cases originated from the Middle East, the United States, and Europe. Thus, in retrospect, broadening of early screening tools and travel restrictions to countries and regions outside China may help control global COVID-19 spread.

negative: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial testing inhaled nitric oxide therapy in spontaneously breathing patients with COVID-19 INTRODUCTION: the current worldwide outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is seriously threatening the public health. The number of infected patients is continuously increasing and the need for Intensive Care Unit admission ranges from 5 to 26%. The mortality is reported to be around 3.4% with higher values for the elderly and in patients with comorbidities. Moreover, this condition is challenging the healthcare system where the outbreak reached its highest value. To date there is still no available treatment for SARS-CoV-2. Clinical and preclinical evidence suggests that nitric oxide (NO) has a beneficial effect on the coronavirus-mediated acute respiratory syndrome, and this can be related to its viricidal effect. The time from the symptoms’ onset to the development of severe respiratory distress is relatively long. We hypothesize that high concentrations of inhaled NO administered during early phases of COVID-19 infection can prevent the progression of the disease. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicenter randomized controlled trial. Spontaneous breathing patients admitted to the hospital for symptomatic COVID-19 infection will be eligible to enter the study. Patients in the treatment group will receive inhaled NO at high doses (140-180 parts per million) for 30 minutes, 2 sessions every day for 14 days in addition to the hospital care. Patient in the control group will receive only hospital care. The primary outcome is the percentage of patients requiring endotracheal intubation due to the progression of the disease in the first 28 days from enrollment in the study. Secondary outcomes include mortality at 28 days, proportion of negative test for SARS-CoV-2 at 7 days and time to clinical recovery. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The trial protocol has been approved at the Investigation Review Boards of Xijing Hospital (Xi’an, China) and The Partners Human Research Committee of Massachusetts General Hospital (Boston, USA) is pending. Recruitment is expected to start in March 2020. Results of this study will be published in scientific journals, presented at scientific meetings, and on related website or media in fighting this widespread contagious disease.

negative: COVID-19 Preparedness in a Neonatal Unit at a Tertiary Hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa Background: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to South Africa and poses an infection risk in pregnant women and their newborns, as well as health-care workers and other patients. Objective: To discuss the implementation of international and local recommendations, and any additional actions undertaken at our Neonatal Unit in order to prepare for COVID-19. Discussion: Standard precautions in order to prepare a facility and its personnel to safely care for COVID-19 patients as outlined by the World Health Organization procedures have been implemented. Further actions undertaken in our Neonatal Unit included the creation of standard operating procedures, increased communication between neonatal and obstetric teams, limiting staff exposure, the creation of disposable resuscitation boxes to attend deliveries, reallocation of a triage area in the high care ward to an isolation area for sick newborns of suspected or confirmed maternal COVID-19 cases, staff training on personal protective equipment procedures and initiation of an online resources portal for neonatal staff. Conclusion: A rational approach to suspected cases and infection control in-line with local and international guidelines as well as ongoing education should diminish anxiety amongst health-care professionals and provide the best possible care to patients. South Africa is a low-to-middle income country, and the lack of resources available means we cannot increase our capacity, staffing numbers or available equipment. Yet, we must be as prepared, adaptable and efficient as possible to maximize the resources and equipment we have available to us.

negative: Emergency Radiology During the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Canadian Association of Radiologists Recommendations for Practice. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is the disease caused by the novel coronavirus officially named the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic presents an unprecedented challenge to emergency radiology practice. The continuity of an effective emergency imaging service for both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients is essential, while adhering to best infection control practices. Under the direction of the Board of the Canadian Association of Radiologists, this general guidance document has been synthesized by collaborative consensus of a group of emergency radiologists. These recommendations aim to assist radiologists involved in emergency diagnostic imaging to help mitigate the spread of COVID-19 and continue to add value to patient care in the emergency setting.

negative: No. 225-Management Guidelines for Obstetric Patients and Neonates Born to Mothers With Suspected or Probable Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Abstract Objective This document summarizes the limited experience of SARS in pregnancy and suggests guidelines for management. Outcomes Cases reported from Asia suggest that maternal and fetal outcomes are worsened by SARS during pregnancy. Evidence Medline was searched for relevant articles published in English from 2000 to 2007. Case reports were reviewed and expert opinion sought. Values Recommendations were made according to the guidelines developed by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care. Sponsors The Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Recommendations 1. All hospitals should have infection control systems in place to ensure that alerts regarding changes in exposure risk factors for SARS or other potentially serious communicable diseases are conveyed promptly to clinical units, including the labour and delivery unit (III-C). 2. At times of SARS outbreaks, all pregnant patients being assessed or admitted to the hospital should be screened for symptoms of and risk factors for SARS (III-C). 3. Upon arrival in the labour triage unit, pregnant patients with suspected and probable SARS should be placed in a negative pressure isolation room with at least 6 air exchanges per hour. All labour and delivery units caring for suspected and probable SARS should have available at least one room in which patients can safely labour and deliver while in need of airborne isolation (III-C). 4. If possible, labour and delivery (including operative delivery or Caesarean section) should be managed in a designated negative pressure isolation room, by designated personnel with specialized infection control preparation and protective gear (III-C). 5. Either regional or general anaesthesia may be appropriate for delivery of patients with SARS (III-C). 6. Neonates of mothers with SARS should be isolated in a designated unit until the infant has been well for 10 days, or until the mother’s period of isolation is complete. The mother should not breastfeed during this period (III-C). 7. A multidisciplinary team, consisting of obstetricians, nurses, pediatricians, infection control specialists, respiratory therapists, and anaesthesiologists, should be identified in each unit and be responsible for the unit organization and implementation of SARS management protocols (III-C). 8. Staff caring for pregnant SARS patients should not care for other pregnant patients. Staff caring for pregnant SARS patients should be actively monitored for fever and other symptoms of SARS. Such individuals should not work in the presence of any SARS symptoms within 10 days of exposure to a SARS patient (III-C). 9. All health care personnel, trainees, and support staff should be trained in infection control management and containment to prevent spread of the SARS virus (III-A). 10. Regional health authorities in conjunction with hospital staff should consider designating specific facilities or health care units, including primary, secondary, or tertiary health care centres, to care for patients with SARS or similar illnesses (III-A).

negative: Clinical features and multidisciplinary treatment outcome of COVID-19 pneumonia: A report of three cases The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a pandemic threatening global public health. In the current paper, we describe our successful treatment of three COVID-19 pneumonia patients cases including severe cases and cases with mortality risk factors. One 32-year-old male COVID-19 patient was diagnosed with severe COVID-19 pneumonia and moderate ARDS. The second COVID-19 pneumonia patient had a history of diabetes and chronic bronchitis. The third case of COVID-19 pneumonia was an 82-year old female patient. All three cases had severe COVID pneumonia and therefore were aggressively managed with a multidisciplinary and personalized therapeutic approach that included nutritional support, antiviral pharmacotherapy, active control of comorbidities, prevention of complication development and psychological intervention. Our experience highlights the importance of the use of a multidisciplinary therapeutic approach that tailors to the specific condition of the patient in achieving a favorable clinical outcome.

negative: Managing patients with chronic pain during the COVID-19 outbreak: considerations for the rapid introduction of remotely supported (eHealth) pain management services

negative: DNA vaccination protects mice against Zika virus-induced damage to the testes Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging pathogen causally associated with serious sequelae in fetuses, inducing fetal microcephaly and other neurodevelopment defects. ZIKV is primarily transmitted by mosquitoes, but can persist in human semen and sperm, and sexual transmission has been documented. Moreover, exposure of type-I interferon knockout mice to ZIKV results in severe damage to the testes, epididymis and sperm. Candidate ZIKV vaccines have shown protective efficacy in preclinical studies carried out in animal models, and several vaccines have entered clinical trials. Here, we report that administration of a synthetic DNA vaccine encoding ZIKV pre-membrane and envelope (prME) completely protects mice against ZIKV-associated damage to the testes and sperm and prevents viral persistence in the testes following challenge with a contemporary strain of ZIKV. These data suggest that DNA vaccination merits further investigation as a potential means to reduce ZIKV persistence in the male reproductive tract.

negative: Severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (SARS): a critical care perspective. OBJECTIVE To review the epidemiology, clinical features, etiology, diagnosis, and management of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) from a critical care perspective. DATA SOURCES A MEDLINE search was performed using the following terms: severe acute respiratory syndrome and SARS virus. Additional information and references were obtained from the Web sites for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, World Health Organization, and Health Canada. STUDY SELECTION Recent case series were used to develop a review of the epidemiology, clinical features, outcomes, and management of patients with SARS from an intensive care unit (ICU) perspective. This was supplemented by epidemiology information obtained from other Web-based sources. Recent published studies describing the etiology of SARS were also included. DATA SYNTHESIS SARS has rapidly spread from Southeast Asia to numerous countries, including Canada and the United States. A new coronavirus has been isolated and detected from many affected patients. The mortality rate worldwide is approximately 10.5%. From five cohorts, the ICU admission rate ranged from 20% to 38%. Fifty-nine percent to 100% of the ICU patients required mechanical ventilatory support. The mortality rate of SARS patients admitted to the ICU ranged from 5% to 67%. The most common clinical symptoms and signs are fever, cough, dyspnea, myalgias, malaise, and inspiratory crackles. Common laboratory abnormalities included mild leukopenia, lymphopenia, and increased aspartate transaminase, alanine transaminase, lactic dehydrogenase, and creatine kinase. The chest radiograph pattern ranged from focal infiltrates to diffuse airspace disease. Management consisted of isolation, strict respiratory and contact precautions, ventilatory support as needed, empiric broad-spectrum antibiotics, ribavirin, and corticosteroids. Predictors of mortality included advanced age, the presence of comorbidities, and a high lactic dehydrogenase or high neutrophil count at admission. CONCLUSIONS SARS is a highly contagious, infectious process that can advance to significant hypoxemic respiratory failure requiring ICU monitoring and support. Early recognition is critical for effective management and containment of this disease.

negative: Grape Seed Proanthocyanidin Extract Alleviates Arsenic-induced Oxidative Reproductive Toxicity in Male Mice OBJECTIVE: To determine the ability of grape seed proanthocyanidin extract (GSPE) in alleviating arsenic-induced reproductive toxicity. METHODS: Sixty male Kunming mice received the following treatments by gavage: normal saline solution (control); arsenic trioxide (ATO; 4 mg/kg); GSPE (400 mg/kg); ATO+GSPE (100 mg/kg); ATO+GSPE (200 mg/kg) and ATO+GSPE (400 mg/kg). Thereafter, the mice were sacrificed and weighed, and the testis was examined for pathological changes. Nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (Nrf2), heme oxygenase 1 (HO1), glutathione S-transferase (GST), NAD(P)H dehydrogenase, and quinone 1 (NQO1) expression in the testis was detected by real-time PCR. Superoxide dismutase (SOD), glutathione (GSH), total antioxidative capability (T-AOC), malondialdehyde (MDA), 8-hydroxydeoxyguanosine (8-OHdG), and reproductive indexes were analyzed. RESULTS: ATO-treated mice showed a significantly decreased sperm count and testis somatic index and activity levels of SOD, GSH, and T-AOC than control group. Compared to the ATO-treated group, ATO +GSPE group showed recovery of the measured parameters. Mice treated with ATO+high-dose GSPE showed the highest level of mRNA expression of Nrf2, HO, NQO1, and GST. CONCLUSIONS: GSPE alleviates oxidative stress damage in mouse testis by activating Nrf2 signaling, thus counteracting arsenic-induced reproductive toxicity.

negative: SARS: responding to an unknown virus The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is an emerging infection caused by a novel coronavirus which first appeared in southern China at the end of 2002. In early 2003, through a single incident, it spread to Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada and Vietnam. For busy clinicians in large public hospitals, the response to the virus was initially based on ensuring a high level of protection for staff. However, as the epidemic progressed and more information became available about the virus, procedures were rationalized and the virus is currently under control worldwide. There are, however, numerous unanswered questions concerning super-spreading events, the modes of transmission of the virus and, perhaps most importantly, the rapid detection of the virus early in the course of disease. These issues need to be addressed in case the virus becomes more widespread in the near future.

negative: Surgery in COVID-19 patients: operational directives The current COVID-19 pandemic underlines the importance of a mindful utilization of financial and human resources. Preserving resources and manpower is paramount in healthcare. It is important to ensure the ability of surgeons and specialized professionals to function through the pandemic. A conscious effort should be made to minimize infection in this sector. A high mortality rate within this group would be detrimental. This manuscript is the result of a collaboration between the major Italian surgical and anesthesiologic societies: ACOI, SIC, SICUT, SICO, SICG, SIFIPAC, SICE, and SIAARTI. We aim to describe recommended clinical pathways for COVID-19-positive patients requiring acute non-deferrable surgical care. All hospitals should organize dedicated protocols and workforce training as part of the effort to face the current pandemic.

negative: Poor Outcome of Acute Respiratory Infection in Young Children with Underlying Health Condition in Brazil Summary Objectives It is well established that respiratory viruses are an important cause of hospitalizations in young children worldwide, but data are limited on the contribution of specific viruses to severe illness in South America. We describe clinical and laboratory findings from prospective surveillance for acute respiratory infections at a tertiary hospital in São Paulo, Brazil. Methods We screened children < 2 years old with acute respiratory tract infections admitted to an urban tertiary hospital for respiratory viruses from March 2008 through February 2010, using polymerase chain reaction assays. Results Respiratory viruses were identified in 378 (53%) of the 715 samples analyzed. Respiratory syncytial virus was the most commonly identified virus (52%), followed by adenovirus (27%) and Human metapneumovirus (12%). More than one virus was identified in 19% of specimens. Almost half of the samples (46%) were from children with underlying health conditions. We demonstrated that compared to the previously healthy group, those with comorbidities had a worse outcome in terms of severity, with prolonged hospital stay and more need of intensive care. Conclusion Identification of this high-risk population along with strategies for fast diagnosis might each help to reduce morbidity and mortality in this group.

negative: Estimation of instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei based on daily case notification data Background The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) initially appeared and has most rapidly spread in Wuhan, China. The case fatality rate is the most direct indicator to assess the hazards of an infectious disease. We aimed to estimate the instant fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan City and its affiliated Hubei Province. Methods We collected the daily case notification data of COVID-19 from Dec 8, 2019 to Mar 10, 2020 in Wuhan City and Hubei Province officially announced by the Chinese authority. The numbers of daily confirmed/deaths/cured cases and the numbers of daily cumulative confirmed/deaths/cured cases were obtained. The death time and cure time of COVID-19 patients were calculated based on the dates of diagnosis, death and discharge of individual cases. Then the estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were obtained on the basis of the median death or medium cure time, respectively. Finally, the instant fatality rate of COVID-19 was calculated according to the numbers of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis dates. Results From Jan 1, 2020 to Feb 22, 2020 in Wuhan City, the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 3.4%～19.5% and the instant cured rate was 80.0%～96.6%. The average fatality rate reached 11.4% while the average cure rate was 88.6%. During the same period in Hubei Province, the instant case fatality rate was 3.8%～16.6% and the instant cured rate was 83.4%～96.6%. The average fatality rate and the average cure rate were 9.2% and 91.8%, respectively. Conclusions The fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan City and Hubei Province were underestimated. Wuhan showed higher fatality rate and cure rate than the whole Hubei Province did.

negative: Late Recognition of SARS in Nosocomial Outbreak, Toronto Late recognition of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was associated with no known SARS contact, hospitalization before the nosocomial outbreak was recognized, symptom onset while hospitalized, wards with SARS clusters, and postoperative status. SARS is difficult to recognize in hospitalized patients with a variety of underlying conditions in the absence of epidemiologic links.

negative: Covid 19 pandemic and gynaecological laparoscopic surgery: knowns and unknowns The worldwide impact of COVID 19 continues to be felt as hospitals in all countries reduce elective and non-urgent cases to allow staffing and resources to be deployed elsewhere. Urgent gynaecological and cancer procedures are continuing, and it is imperative all theatre staff are protected and risks of SARS-CoV-2 viral transmission reduced when operating on asymptomatic, suspected or confirmed COVID 19 patients. In particular, there are concerns relating to the transmission of COVID 19 during gynaecological laparoscopic surgery, arising from the potential generation of SARS-CoV-2 contaminated aerosols from CO(2) leakage and the creation of smoke from the use of energy devices. The aim of this paper is to review all the up to date evidence, including experiences from China and Italy, to guide the safe management of such patients when undergoing gynaecological procedures.

negative: Consortia's critical role in developing medical countermeasures for re-emerging viral infections: a USA perspective. Viral infections, such as Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome/Middle East respiratory syndrome and West Nile virus have emerged as a serious health threat with no effective therapies. These infections have little commercial potential and are not a high priority for the pharmaceutical industry. However, the academic community has been active in this area for many years. The challenge is how to take this academic virology knowledge into a drug discovery and development domain. One approach is the use of consortia and public-private partnerships - this article highlights ongoing efforts in the USA. Public funds, such as those from government sources, can support research efforts that do not to appear to have commercial value. The key to success is finding a way to combine the different cultural and operational values and reward systems into a productive collaboration to identify new antivirals.

negative: Voluntary collective isolation as a best response to COVID-19 for indigenous populations? A case study and protocol from the Bolivian Amazon Indigenous communities worldwide share common features that make them especially vulnerable to the complications of and mortality from COVID-19. They also possess resilient attributes that can be leveraged to promote prevention efforts. How can indigenous communities best mitigate potential devastating effects of COVID-19? In Bolivia, where nearly half of all citizens claim indigenous origins, no specific guidelines have been outlined for indigenous communities inhabiting native communal territories. In this Public Health article, we describe collaborative efforts, as anthropologists, physicians, tribal leaders, and local officials, to develop and implement a multiphase COVID-19 prevention and containment plan focused on voluntary collective isolation and contact-tracing among Tsimane forager-horticulturalists in the Bolivian Amazon. Phase 1 involves education, outreach, and preparation, and phase 2 focuses on containment, patient management, and quarantine. Features of this plan might be exported and adapted to local circumstances elsewhere to prevent widespread mortality in indigenous communities.

negative: Neurological Complications of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): Encephalopathy Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic. Neurological complications of COVID-19 have not been reported. Encephalopathy has not been described as a presenting symptom or complication of COVID-19. We report a case of a 74-year-old patient who traveled from Europe to the United States and presented with encephalopathy and COVID-19.

negative: Clinical features and obstetric and neonatal outcomes of pregnant patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective, single-centre, descriptive study Summary Background In December, 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China. The number of affected pregnant women is increasing, but scarce information is available about the clinical features of COVID-19 in pregnancy. This study aimed to clarify the clinical features and obstetric and neonatal outcomes of pregnant patients with COVID-19. Methods In this retrospective, single-centre study, we included all pregnant women with COVID-19 who were admitted to Tongji Hospital in Wuhan, China. Clinical features, treatments, and maternal and fetal outcomes were assessed. Findings Seven patients, admitted to Tongji Hospital from Jan 1, to Feb 8, 2020, were included in our study. The mean age of the patients was 32 years (range 29–34 years) and the mean gestational age was 39 weeks plus 1 day (range 37 weeks to 41 weeks plus 2 days). Clinical manifestations were fever (six [86%] patients), cough (one [14%] patient), shortness of breath (one [14%] patient), and diarrhoea (one [14%] patient). All the patients had caesarean section within 3 days of clinical presentation with an average gestational age of 39 weeks plus 2 days. The final date of follow-up was Feb 12, 2020. The outcomes of the pregnant women and neonates were good. Three neonates were tested for SARS-CoV-2 and one neonate was infected with SARS-CoV-2 36 h after birth. Interpretation The maternal, fetal, and neonatal outcomes of patients who were infected in late pregnancy appeared very good, and these outcomes were achieved with intensive, active management that might be the best practice in the absence of more robust data. The clinical characteristics of these patients with COVID-19 during pregnancy were similar to those of non-pregnant adults with COVID-19 that have been reported in the literature. Funding National Natural Science Foundation of China, Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China.

negative: Characteristics of patients with COVID-19 during epidemic ongoing outbreak in Wuhan, China Background Since Dec 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has caused about fifty thousand patients and over two thousand deaths in Wuhan, China. We reported characteristics of patients with COVID-19 during epidemic ongoing outbreak in Wuhan. Methods Data of COVID-19 patients with clinical outcome in a designated hospital in Wuhan, were retrospectively collected from electronic medical records. Characteristics were compared between patients who died or recovered, and between patients with different disease severity. Results By Feb 25, 2020, 403 patients were enrolled, 100 died and 303 recovered. Most of non-survivors tended to be males, old aged, or with chronic diseases. Duration from illness onset to admission was 9 (7-12) days. Patients with severe or critical illness had more days from onset to admission compared to those with ordinary illness. Lymphopenia, anemia, hypoproteinemia, and abnormal serum sodium were presented in 52.6%, 54.6%, 69.8%, and 21.8% cases, respectively. Patients who died or with severe/critical illness showed increased white blood cell and neutrophil count, serum total bilirubin, creatinine, hypersensitive troponin I, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and C-reactive protein, and decreased red blood cell, lymphocyte, platelet count, and serum albumin on admission compared to those who recovered or with ordinary illness. Complications of acute organ injury and secondary infection were common in patients with COVID-19, especially in non-survivors. Conclusions Multiple homeostasis disturbances were common in patients with severe or critical illness at admission. Early support should be provided, especially for old men with chronic disease, which is vital to control disease progression and reduce mortality of COVID-19 during epidemic ongoing outbreak.

negative: Overdose and Risk Factors for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Abstract Background There have been significant efforts to respond to the two public health emergencies of COVID-19 and overdose in British Columbia (BC) Canada. The purpose of this study was to quantify the prevalence of known risk factors associated with mortality due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (COVID-19) for persons who have had a non-fatal overdose (2015-2017) in comparison to persons who have not had an overdose. Methods Data were extracted from the BC Provincial Overdose Cohort (ODC) which includes a 20% random sample of BC residents and persons who have had a non-fatal overdose in BC from January 2015-December 2017. Chi-square tests and logistic regression were used to compare risk factors by overdose history. Results Persons who had an overdose were significantly more likely to have three (chronic pulmonary disease, diabetes, coronary heart disease) of the four known chronic conditions associated with the development of severe illness due to COVID-19 compared to persons who did not have a previous non-fatal overdose event. Conclusion Persons who had an overdose were more likely to have several chronic conditions associated with the development of severe illness due to COVID-19. The increased likelihood of having these risk factors is reflective of the social and health inequities experienced by persons who have a history of overdose.

negative: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK. METHODS: We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The four base interventions modelled were school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years or older, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases. We also modelled the combination of these interventions, as well as a programme of intensive interventions with phased lockdown-type restrictions that substantially limited contacts outside of the home for repeated periods. We simulated different triggers for the introduction of interventions, and estimated the impact of varying adherence to interventions across counties. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (ie, admission to the intensive care units [ICU]) treatment, and deaths, and compared the effect of each intervention on the basic reproduction number, R0. FINDINGS: We projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million (95% prediction interval 13-30) clinical cases and 350â000 deaths (170â000-480â000) due to COVID-19 in the UK by December, 2021. We found that the four base interventions were each likely to decrease R0, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity. The combined intervention was more effective at reducing R0, but only lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R0 near or below 1; the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120â000 cases (46â000-700â000) and 50â000 deaths (9300-160â000). Intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability. INTERPRETATION: The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are probably required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

negative: Prophylaxie post-exposition ou traitement préventif pour le syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère du coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) : protocole d'étude pour une étude randomisée contrôlée pragmatique./ Post-exposure prophylaxis or pre-emptive therapy for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): study protocol for a pragmatic randomized-controlled trial BACKGROUND: The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019 causing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Currently, there is a lack of evidence-based therapies to prevent COVID-19 following exposure to the virus, or to prevent worsening of symptoms following confirmed infection. We describe the design of a clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine for post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and pre-emptive therapy (PET) for COVID-19. METHODS: We will conduct two nested multicentre international double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trials of hydroxychloroquine for: 1) PEP of asymptomatic household contacts or healthcare workers exposed to COVID-19 within the past four days, and 2) PET for symptomatic outpatients with COVID-19 showing symptoms for less than four days. We will recruit 1,500 patients each for the PEP and PET trials. Participants will be randomized 1:1 to receive five days of hydroxychloroquine or placebo. The primary PEP trial outcome will be the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19. The primary PET trial outcome will be an ordinal scale of disease severity (not hospitalized, hospitalized without intensive care, hospitalization with intensive care, or death). Participant screening, informed consent, and follow-up will be exclusively internet-based with appropriate regulatory and research ethics board approvals in Canada and the United States. DISCUSSION: These complementary randomized-controlled trials are innovatively designed and adequately powered to rapidly answer urgent questions regarding the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine to reduce virus transmission and disease severity of COVID-19 during a pandemic. In-person participant follow-up will not be conducted to facilitate social distancing strategies and reduce risks of exposure to study personnel. Innovative trial approaches are needed to urgently assess therapeutic options to mitigate the global impact of this pandemic. TRIALS REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04308668); registered 16 March, 2020.

negative: Knowledge and attitudes of medical staff in Chinese psychiatric hospitals regarding COVID-19 Abstract On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus COVID-19 a pandemic. There are patients in psychiatric hospitals in China who have been infected with COVID-19, however, the knowledge and attitudes of psychiatric hospital staff towards infectious diseases and their willingness to work during the COVID-19 outbreak has not yet been investigated. This study was performed to assess the knowledge and attitudes of medical staff in two Chinese mental health centers during the COVID-19 outbreak. We included 141 psychiatrists and 170 psychiatric nurses in the study. We found that during the COVID-19 epidemic, 89.51% of the medical staff of the psychiatric hospitals studied had extensive knowledge of COVID-19, and 64.63% of them received the relevant training in hospitals. Furthermore, about 77.17% of participants expressed a willingness to care for psychiatric patients suffering from COVID-19 virus infection. Independent predictors of willingness to care for patients included advanced training and experience of caring for patients with COVID-19. In conclusion, this study suggests that increased attention should be paid to the knowledge and attitudes of medical staff at psychiatric hospitals during the COVID-19 outbreak.

negative: Maternal and perinatal outcomes with COVID‐19: A systematic review of 108 pregnancies INTRODUCTION: The pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) has exposed vulnerable populations to an unprecedented global health crisis. The knowledge gained from previous human coronavirus outbreaks suggests that pregnant women and their fetuses are particularly susceptible to poor outcomes. The objective of this study was to summarize the clinical manifestations and maternal and perinatal outcomes of COVID‐19 during pregnancy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We searched databases for all case reports and series from 12 February to 4 April 2020. Multiple terms and combinations were used including COVID‐19, pregnancy, maternal mortality, maternal morbidity, complications, clinical manifestations, neonatal morbidity, intrauterine fetal death, neonatal mortality and SARS‐CoV‐2. Eligibility criteria included peer‐reviewed publications written in English or Chinese and quantitative real‐time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) or dual fluorescence PCR‐confirmed SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. Unpublished reports, unspecified date and location of the study or suspicion of duplicate reporting, cases with suspected COVID‐19 that were not confirmed by a laboratory test, and unreported maternal or perinatal outcomes were excluded. Data on clinical manifestations, maternal and perinatal outcomes including vertical transmission were extracted and analyzed. RESULTS: Eighteen articles reporting data from 108 pregnancies between 8 December 2019 and 1 April 2020 were included in the current study. Most reports described women presenting in the third trimester with fever (68%) and coughing (34%). Lymphocytopenia (59%) with elevated C‐reactive protein (70%) was observed and 91% of the women were delivered by cesarean section. Three maternal intensive care unit admissions were noted but no maternal deaths. One neonatal death and one intrauterine death were also reported. CONCLUSIONS: Although the majority of mothers were discharged without any major complications, severe maternal morbidity as a result of COVID‐19 and perinatal deaths were reported. Vertical transmission of the COVID‐19 could not be ruled out. Careful monitoring of pregnancies with COVID‐19 and measures to prevent neonatal infection are warranted.

negative: Cyberbiosecurity Challenges of Pathogen Genome Databases Pathogen detection, identification, and tracking is shifting from non-molecular methods, DNA fingerprinting methods, and single gene methods to methods relying on whole genomes. Viral Ebola and influenza genome data are being used for real-time tracking, while food-borne bacterial pathogen outbreaks and hospital outbreaks are investigated using whole genomes in the UK, Canada, the USA and the other countries. Also, plant pathogen genomes are starting to be used to investigate plant disease epidemics such as the wheat blast outbreak in Bangladesh. While these genome-based approaches provide never-seen advantages over all previous approaches with regard to public health and biosecurity, they also come with new vulnerabilities and risks with regard to cybersecurity. The more we rely on genome databases, the more likely these databases will become targets for cyber-attacks to interfere with public health and biosecurity systems by compromising their integrity, taking them hostage, or manipulating the data they contain. Also, while there is the potential to collect pathogen genomic data from infected individuals or agricultural and food products during disease outbreaks to improve disease modeling and forecast, how to protect the privacy of individuals, growers, and retailers is another major cyberbiosecurity challenge. As data become linkable to other data sources, individuals and groups become identifiable and potential malicious activities targeting those identified become feasible. Here, we define a number of potential cybersecurity weaknesses in today's pathogen genome databases to raise awareness, and we provide potential solutions to strengthen cyberbiosecurity during the development of the next generation of pathogen genome databases.

negative: Molecular characterization of a panel of murine monoclonal antibodies specific for the SARS-coronavirus Abstract The availability of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) specific for the SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is important for the development of both diagnostic tools and treatment of infection. A molecular characterization of nine monoclonal antibodies raised in immune mice, using highly purified, inactivated SARS-CoV as the inoculating antigen, is presented in this report. These antibodies are specific for numerous viral protein targets, and six of them are able to effectively neutralize SARS-CoV in vitro, including one with a neutralizing titre of 0.075nM. A phylogenetic analysis of the heavy and light chain sequences reveals that the mAbs share considerable homology. The majority of the heavy chains belong to a single Ig germline V-gene family, while considerably more sequence variation is evident in the light chain sequences. These analyses demonstrate that neutralization ability can be correlated with specific murine VH-gene alleles. For instance, one evident trend is high sequence conservation in the VH chains of the neutralizing mAbs, particularly in CDR-1 and CDR-2. The results suggest that optimization of murine mAbs for neutralization of SARS-CoV infection will likely be possible, and will aid in the development of diagnostic tools and passive treatments for SARS-CoV infection.

negative: Expert recommendations for the care of newborns of mothers with COVID-19 This article presents expert recommendations for assisting newborn children of mothers with suspected or diagnosed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The consensus was developed by five experts with an average of 20 years of experience in neonatal intensive care working at a reference university hospital in Brazil for the care of pregnant women and newborns with suspected or confirmed COVID-19. Despite the lack of scientific evidence regarding the potential for viral transmission to their fetus in pregnant mothers diagnosed with or suspected of COVID-19, it is important to elaborate the lines of care by specialists from hospitals caring for suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases to guide multidisciplinary teams and families diagnosed with the disease or involved in the care of pregnant women and newborns in this context. Multidisciplinary teams must be attentive to the signs and symptoms of COVID-19 so that decision-making is oriented and assertive for the management of the mother and newborn in both the hospital setting and at hospital discharge.

negative: Multiplex Respiratory Virus Testing for Antimicrobial Stewardship: A Prospective Assessment of Antimicrobial Use and Clinical Outcomes Among Hospitalized Adults BACKGROUND: Respiratory tract infections are frequent causes of hospitalization and initiation of empirical antimicrobial therapy. Testing for a broad panel of respiratory viruses has been advocated as a useful tool for antibiotic stewardship. We conducted a prospective observational study to assess the impact of rapid viral test results on antimicrobial prescriptions and clinical outcomes among hospitalized adults. METHODS: Eight hundred patients admitted with respiratory symptoms were tested by a 12-virus respiratory panel (RVP) during 3 consecutive winters in Montreal, Canada. The primary outcome measure was change in antimicrobial prescriptions (ie, de-escalation of empirical antimicrobial therapy or commencement of new antimicrobial therapy) after RVP results were available. Clinical outcomes were also assessed. RESULTS: Influenza virus was identified in 53% of individuals in the study population, and other viruses were identified in 10%. Influenza virus positivity was associated with shorter duration of hospitalization and appropriate antiviral management. Antibiotic management was most significantly correlated with radiographic suspicion of pneumonia and less so with results of the RVP. Positivity for viruses other than influenza virus was not correlated with significantly different outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians respond to results of testing for influenza virus when managing hospitalized adult patients but respond less to test results for other viruses. These data can inform the design of stewardship interventions and the selection of viral testing panels for hospitalized patients.

negative: Chapter 8 Bismarck and the Long Road to Universal Health Coverage Abstract The 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) state that All United Nations Member States have agreed to try to achieve Universal Health Coverage by 2030. This includes financial risk protection, access to quality essential health care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all. Universal health coverage (UHC) means inclusion and empowerment for all people to access medical care, including treatment and prevention services. UHC exists in all the industrial nations except the US, which has a mixed public-private system and struggles with closing the gap between the insured and the uninsured population. Middle- and low-income countries face many challenges for UHC achievement, including low levels of funding, lack of personnel, weak health management, and issues of availability of services favoring middle- and upper-class communities. Community health services for preventive and curative health services for needs in populations at risk for poor health in low-income countries must be addressed with proactive health promotion initiatives for the double burden of infectious and noncommunicable diseases. Each nation will develop its own unique approach to national health systems, but there are models used by a number of countries based on principles of national responsibility for health, social solidarity for providing funding, and for effective ways of providing care with comprehensiveness, efficiency, quality, and cost containment. Universal access does not eliminate social inequalities in health by itself, including a wide context of reducing social inequities. Understanding national health systems requires examining representative models of different systems. Health reform is necessarily a continuing process as all countries must adapt to face challenges of cost constraints, inequalities in access to care, aging populations, emergence of new disease conditions and advancing technology including the growing capacity of medicine, public health and health promotion. The growing stress of increasing obesity, diabetes, and other chronic diseases, requires nations to modify their health care systems. Learning from the systems developed in different countries helps to learn from the processes of change in other countries.

negative: Fangcang shelter hospitals: a novel concept for responding to public health emergencies Fangcang shelter hospitals are a novel public health concept. They were implemented for the first time in China in February, 2020, to tackle the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. The Fangcang shelter hospitals in China were large-scale, temporary hospitals, rapidly built by converting existing public venues, such as stadiums and exhibition centres, into health-care facilities. They served to isolate patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 from their families and communities, while providing medical care, disease monitoring, food, shelter, and social activities. We document the development of Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 outbreak in China and explain their three key characteristics (rapid construction, massive scale, and low cost) and five essential functions (isolation, triage, basic medical care, frequent monitoring and rapid referral, and essential living and social engagement). Fangcang shelter hospitals could be powerful components of national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as future epidemics and public health emergencies.

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): a guide for UK GPs.

negative: One world, one health: The novel coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic()

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome and its effects on health care: how Canada has dealt with this ordeal. The global epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) indirectly has affected all health care facilities in affected nations and has unaffected nations on alert. Health care practitioners need to be aware of infection control measures to prevent the spread of SARS. This article looks at this new disease and how it has affected the delivery of health care in Canada.

negative: Protecting health workers from infectious disease transmission: an exploration of a Canadian-South African partnership of partnerships BACKGROUND: Health workers are at high risk of acquiring infectious diseases at work, especially in low and middle-income countries (LMIC) with critical health human resource deficiencies and limited implementation of occupational health and infection control measures. Amidst increasing interest in international partnerships to address such issues, how best to develop such collaborations is being actively debated. In 2006, a partnership developed between occupational health and infection control experts in Canada and institutions in South Africa (including an institute with a national mandate to conduct research and provide guidance to protect health workers from infectious diseases and promote improved working conditions). This article describes the collaboration, analyzes the determinants of success and shares lessons learned. METHODS: Synthesizing participant-observer experience from over 9 years of collaboration and 10 studies already published from this work, we applied a realist review analysis to describe the various achievements at global, national, provincial and hospital levels. Expectations of the various parties on developing new insights, providing training, and addressing service needs were examined through a micro-meso-macro lens, focusing on how each main partner organization contributed to and benefitted from working together. RESULTS: A state-of-the-art occupational health and safety surveillance program was established in South Africa following successful technology transfer from a similar undertaking in Canada and training was conducted that synergistically benefitted Northern as well as Southern trainees. Integrated policies combining infection control and occupational health to prevent and control infectious disease transmission among health workers were also launched. Having a national (South-South) network reinforced by the international (North–south) partnership was pivotal in mitigating the challenges that emerged. CONCLUSIONS: High-income country partnerships with experience in health system strengthening – particularly in much needed areas such as occupational health and infection control – can effectively work through strong collaborators in the Global South to build capacity. Partnerships are particularly well positioned to sustainably reinforce efforts at national and sub-national LMIC levels when they adopt a “communities of practice” model, characterized by multi-directional learning. The principles of effective collaboration learned in this “partnership of partnerships” to improve working conditions for health workers can be applied to other areas where health system strengthening is needed.

negative: Ramping Up the Delivery of Cardiac Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Guidance Statement from the Canadian Society of Cardiac Surgeons Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a profound global impact. Its rapid transmissibility has forced whole countries to adopt strict measures to contain its spread. As part of necessary pandemic planning, the majority of Canadian cardiac surgical programs have prioritized and delayed elective procedures in an effort to reduce the burden on the health care system and to mobilize resources in the event of a pandemic surge. While the number of COVID-19 cases continue to increase worldwide, new cases have begun to decline in many jurisdictions. This “flattening of the curve” has inevitably prompted discussions around re-opening of the economy, relaxing some public health restrictions and resuming non-urgent health care delivery.

negative: The estimated impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in the general population of France Background Model-based predictions for the COVID-19 outbreak revealed the potential for extraordinary mortality and saturation of health care systems if no action was taken. The pandemic hit France in late January 2020. Lockdown was implemented on March 17, 2020. The goal was to drastically reduce the number of infections, but at the cost of fear of a second epidemic wave when easing the lockdown. Our aim was to characterize the dynamics of the COVID-19 spread in France and estimate the proportion of coronavirus-infected individuals using ground truth from syndromic surveillance data. Methods National health authorities provide data from syndromic surveillance of the diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 reported by a sample of primary care physicians and from epidemic surveillance of confirmed cases, originating from hospitals. By extrapolation, COVID-19 incidence in the general population can be estimated. In turn, a back-calculation model can infer the number of contagious individuals, providing an idea of the spread of the epidemic before the implementation of lockdown measures. Results This study estimated that 12.3 million individuals were diagnosed 'suspected COVID-19' on May 6, 2020. At lockdown start, 2.5 million people were already contagious. The infection attack rate peaked on March 27, ten days after lockdown. The predicted sharp drop was not observed. The dynamics of the epidemic followed a continuous curve with a decline phase 2.35 times slower than the growth phase. 80% of infections occurred after lockdown. Conclusions These results call into question the effectiveness of lockdown. The epidemic would have followed its 'natural trajectory', beginning long before the health system detected the first cases. This hypothesis does not dispute the caution required with regard to the extraordinary spread of the epidemic, with less affected geographic areas becoming a source of susceptible individuals.

negative: The epidemiology and pathogenesis of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak Abstract Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-COV2 and represents the causative agent of a potentially fatal disease that is of great global public health concern. Based on the large number of infected people that were exposed to the wet animal market in Wuhan City, China, it is suggested that this is likely the zoonotic origin of COVID-19. Person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 infection led to the isolation of patients that were subsequently administered a variety of treatments. Extensive measures to reduce person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 have been implemented to control the current outbreak. Special attention and efforts to protect or reduce transmission should be applied in susceptible populations including children, health care providers, and elderly people. In this review, we highlights the symptoms, epidemiology, transmission, pathogenesis, phylogenetic analysis and future directions to control the spread of this fatal disease.

negative: Introduction to the special issue on COVID‐19 and the Canadian agriculture and food sectors: Thoughts from the pandemic onset

negative: Insights into Cross-species Evolution of Novel Human Coronavirus 2019-nCoV and Defining Immune Determinants for Vaccine Development Novel Coronavirus (nCoV) outbreak in the city of Wuhan, China during December 2019, has now spread to various countries across the globe triggering a heightened containment effort. This human pathogen is a member of betacoronavirus genus carrying 30 kilobase of single positive-sense RNA genome. Understanding the evolution, zoonotic transmission, and source of this novel virus would help accelerating containment and prevention efforts. The present study reported detailed analysis of 2019-nCoV genome evolution and potential candidate peptides for vaccine development. This nCoV genotype might have been evolved from a bat-CoV by accumulating non-synonymous mutations, indels, and recombination events. Structural proteins Spike (S), and Membrane (M) had extensive mutational changes, whereas Envelope (E) and Nucleocapsid (N) proteins were very conserved suggesting differential selection pressures exerted on 2019-nCoV during evolution. Interestingly, 2019-nCoV Spike protein contains a 39 nucleotide (5’-aAT GGT GTT GAA GGT TTT AAT TGT TAC TTT CCT TTA CAA Tca-3’) sequence insertion, which shares homology to fish genomic sequence of Myripristis murdjan, an abundant fish type in Indo-Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, we identified eight high binding affinity (HBA) CD4 T-cell epitopes in the S, E, M and N proteins, which can be commonly recognized by HLA-DR alleles of Asia and Asia-Pacific Region population. These immunodominant epitopes can be incorporated in universal subunit CoV vaccine. Diverse HLA types and variations in the epitope binding affinity may contribute to the wide range of immunopathological outcomes of circulating virus in humans. Our findings emphasize the requirement for continuous surveillance of CoV strains in live animal markets to better understand the viral adaptation to human host and to develop practical solutions to prevent the emergence of novel pathogenic CoV strains.

negative: Labour issues and COVID‐19 The COVID‐19 pandemic has prompted Canada and several other countries to impose an economic shutdown to prevent a deadly public health crisis from becoming much deadlier. In the agriculture and food sector, several hundred thousand restaurant workers have lost their jobs. The rise in unemployment, the closing of restaurants and schools, and social distancing have triggered demand reductions for certain commodities and foods and demand increases for others, bringing along changes in demand for inputs including labour. Canadian employers of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) are facing delays and additional constraints in recruiting, but so have US and European employers of TFWs. Rising food security concerns are making protectionist trade policies popular. Domestic and foreign firms may export less and do more foreign direct investment, inducing trade in jobs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

negative: A Basic Strategy to Manage Global Health with Reference to Livestock Production in Asia Newly emerging infectious diseases (nEIDs) have increased rapidly presenting alarming challenges to global health. We argue that for effective management of global health a basic strategy should include at least three essential tactical forms: actions of a directly focused nature, institutional coordination, and disciplinary integration in approaches to health management. Each level of action is illustrated with examples from the livestock sector in Asia. No clear example of all three tactical forms in place can be found from developing countries where food security is a significant threat although Vietnam is developing a comprehensive strategy. Finally, an ecosystem health approach to global health management is advocated; such an approach moves away from the traditional single disciplinary approach. Stronger guidance is needed to direct ecohealth research and application in the management of global health.

negative: Corona virus (Covid-19) – ITS implications in pediatric orthopedic care The recent spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV2) and its associated corona virus disease has gripped the entire international community and has caused widespread public health concerns due to unavailability of treatment to this deadly disease. The COVID -19 has affected healthcare workers badly in the world with front line health care providers has mortality rate of 1.4%. But in countries like Italy it has gone up to 9%. Till this date, there are no universal guidelines for musculoskeletal (MSK) care in the face of the corona virus pandemic. Health care professionals, including orthopaedic surgeons may encounter patients with suspected or confirmed COVID -19 infections and will have to act diligently not only to provide care but at the same time to prevent spread of infection. During lock down period in INDIA we collected data of patients came to emergency in our hospital. Out of 81 patients, 40 patients were of paediatric trauma with a percentage of 47% making a huge volume. Thus, in this article, we tried to summarize current recommendations for diagnosing and managing paediatric patient's protocol in COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: COVID-19, Modern Pandemic: A Systematic Review From Front-Line Health Care Providers’ Perspective Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused infection in 168,000 cases worldwide in about 148 countries and killed more than 6,610 people around the world as of March 16, 2020, as per the World Health Organization (WHO). Compared to severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome, there is the rapid transmission, long incubation period, and disease containment is becoming extremely difficult. The main aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive clinical summary of all the available data from high-quality research articles relevant to the epidemiology, demographics, trends in hospitalization and outcomes, clinical signs and symptoms, diagnostic methods and treatment methods of COVID-19, thus increasing awareness in health care providers. We also discussed various preventive measures to combat COVID-19 effectively. A systematic and protocol-driven approach is needed to contain this disease, which was declared as a global pandemic on March 11, 2020, by the WHO.

negative: Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: systematic review and critical appraisal OBJECTIVE: To review and critically appraise published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at risk of being admitted to hospital for covid-19 pneumonia. DESIGN: Rapid systematic review and critical appraisal. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Embase through Ovid, Arxiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 24 March 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. DATA EXTRACTION: At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). RESULTS: 2696 titles were screened, and 27 studies describing 31 prediction models were included. Three models were identified for predicting hospital admission from pneumonia and other events (as proxy outcomes for covid-19 pneumonia) in the general population; 18 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 infection (13 were machine learning based on computed tomography scans); and 10 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, or length of hospital stay. Only one study used patient data from outside of China. The most reported predictors of presence of covid-19 in patients with suspected disease included age, body temperature, and signs and symptoms. The most reported predictors of severe prognosis in patients with covid-19 included age, sex, features derived from computed tomography scans, C reactive protein, lactic dehydrogenase, and lymphocyte count. C index estimates ranged from 0.73 to 0.81 in prediction models for the general population (reported for all three models), from 0.81 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models (reported for 13 of the 18 models), and from 0.85 to 0.98 in prognostic models (reported for six of the 10 models). All studies were rated at high risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, and high risk of model overfitting. Reporting quality varied substantially between studies. Most reports did not include a description of the study population or intended use of the models, and calibration of predictions was rarely assessed. CONCLUSION: Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that proposed models are poorly reported, at high risk of bias, and their reported performance is probably optimistic. Immediate sharing of well documented individual participant data from covid-19 studies is needed for collaborative efforts to develop more rigorous prediction models and validate existing ones. The predictors identified in included studies could be considered as candidate predictors for new models. Methodological guidance should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, studies should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245.

negative: Essential Case Management Practices Amidst the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Crisis: Part 1: Tele-Case Management, Surge Capacity, Discharge Planning, and Transitions of Care OBJECTIVES: This is the first of a 2-part article that discusses essential case management practices and strategies amidst the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The series showcases the potential professional case managers have in support of managing during a crisis such as this global pandemic. Part I discusses reenvisioned roles and responsibilities of case managers and leaders known to address patients' needs during a crisis, with a special focus on telehealth, tele-case management, surge capacity, redeployment, discharge planning, and transitions of care. PRIMARY PRACTICE SETTINGS: Applicable to the various case management practice settings across the continuum of health and human services, especially acute care. FINDINGS CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 global pandemic crisis has brought an unprecedented challenge to professional case managers and health care professionals. It also has provided opportunities for innovation and partnerships within and across health care organizations and the various care settings where patients/support systems access necessary services. Most importantly, it created a renewed interest in telehealth and facilitated a wider adoption of such approach to care delivery than ever before. This pandemic has also increased the use of nontraditional sites of care, most importantly those that operate virtually on electronic networks and health information system technologies such as remote visits, e-visits, virtual care, and tele-monitoring. Undoubtedly, these have provided new opportunities for tele-case management services and roles for professional case managers in the virtual world of health and human service delivery. IMPLICATIONS FOR CASE MANAGEMENT PRACTICE: Professional case managers are integral members of interprofessional health care teams. Their roles are even more necessary during a global pandemic such as COVID-19. The practice of case management will forever change—for the better. The experience of this crisis in health care has brought about ever-lasting implications for case management professionals. It has raised awareness to sites of care never were as popular before, resulting in an increased need and recognition for tele-case management practice and virtual case managers. It has also forced partnerships and collaborations among the diverse contexts of health care organizations (public, private, or both) and other industries, regardless of whether directly involved in the delivery of care or having a support service role. These new and innovative approaches in the provision of care and case management services will without a doubt become routine expectations beyond the current pandemic period. Of special note are the enhanced roles of case managers in discharge planning and transitions of care.

negative: Opinion de comité de la SOGC – COVID-19 pendant la grossesse

negative: What Have We Learned About Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Emergence in Humans? A Systematic Literature Review Background: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first identified in humans in 2012. A systematic literature review was conducted to synthesize current knowledge and identify critical knowledge gaps. Materials and Methods: We conducted a systematic review on MERS-CoV using PRISMA guidelines. We identified 407 relevant, peer-reviewed publications and selected 208 of these based on their contributions to four key areas: virology; clinical characteristics, outcomes, therapeutic and preventive options; epidemiology and transmission; and animal interface and the search for natural hosts of MERS-CoV. Results: Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4/CD26) was identified as the human receptor for MERS-CoV, and a variety of molecular and serological assays developed. Dromedary camels remain the only documented zoonotic source of human infection, but MERS-like CoVs have been detected in bat species globally, as well as in dromedary camels throughout the Middle East and Africa. However, despite evidence of camel-to-human MERS-CoV transmission and cases apparently related to camel contact, the source of many primary cases remains unknown. There have been sustained health care-associated human outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and South Korea, the latter originating from one traveler returning from the Middle East. Transmission mechanisms are poorly understood; for health care, this may include environmental contamination. Various potential therapeutics have been identified, but not yet evaluated in human clinical trials. At least one candidate vaccine has progressed to Phase I trials. Conclusions: There has been substantial MERS-CoV research since 2012, but significant knowledge gaps persist, especially in epidemiology and natural history of the infection. There have been few rigorous studies of baseline prevalence, transmission, and spectrum of disease. Terms such as “camel exposure” and the epidemiological relationships of cases should be clearly defined and standardized. We strongly recommend a shared and accessible registry or database. Coronaviruses will likely continue to emerge, arguing for a unified “One Health” approach.

negative: Human monoclonal IgG selection of Plasmodium falciparum for the expression of placental malaria-specific variant surface antigens Pregnancy-associatedPlasmodium falciparum malaria (PAM) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in African women and their offspring. PAM is characterized by accumulation of infected erythrocytes (IEs) that adhere to chondroitin sulphate A (CSA) in the placental intervillous space. We show here that human monoclonal IgG antibodies with specificity for variant surface antigens (VSA) specifically expressed by CSA-adhering IEs (VSA(PAM)) can be used in vitro to select parasites from nonpregnant donors to express VSA(PAM) and that this selection for VSA(PAM) expression results in preferential transcription of var2csa. The results corroborate current efforts to develop PAM-specific vaccines based on VAR2CSA.

negative: Effects of temperature on COVID-19 transmission Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2), it was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China and has resulted in the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic. As of March 1, 2020, 79,968 patients in China and 7169 outside of China had tested positive for COVID19 and a mortality rate of 3.6% has been observed amongst Chinese patients. Its primary mode of transmission is via respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes. The virus can remain viable for up to three days on plastic and stainless steel or in aerosols for upto 3 hours and is relatively more stable than the known human coronaviruses. It is stable in faeces at room temperature for at least 1-2 days and can be stable in infected patients for up to 4 days. Heat at 56 degree Celsius kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 minutes. Thus, temperature is an important factor in survival of COVID19 virus and this article focuses on understanding the relationship between temperature and COVID19 transmission from the data available between January-March 2020.

negative: Clinical severity of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus BACKGROUND: Characterizing the severity profile of human infections with influenza viruses of animal origin is a part of pandemic risk assessment, and an important part of the assessment of disease epidemiology. Our objective was to assess the clinical severity of human infections with the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus that has recently emerged in China. METHODS: Among laboratory-confirmed cases of A(H7N9) who were hospitalised, we estimated the risk of fatality, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit based on censored data during the currently ongoing outbreak. We also used information on laboratory-confirmed cases detected through sentinel influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance to estimate the number of symptomatic A(H7N9) virus infections to date and the symptomatic case fatality risk. FINDINGS: Among 123 hospitalised cases, 37 cases had died and 69 had recovered by May 28, 2013. Hospitalised cases had high risks of mortality (36%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 26%–45%), mechanical ventilation or mortality (69%; 95% CI: 60%–77%), and ICU admission or mechanical ventilation or mortality (83%; 95% CI: 76%–90%), and the risk of these severe outcomes increased with age. Depending on assumptions about the coverage of the sentinel ILI network and health-care seeking behavior for cases of ILI associated with A(H7N9) virus infection, we estimated that the symptomatic case fatality risk could be between 160 and 2,800 per 100,000 symptomatic cases. INTERPRETATION: We estimated that the severity of A(H7N9) is somewhat lower than A(H5N1) but higher than seasonal influenza viruses and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus. The estimated risks of fatality among hospitalised cases and symptomatic cases are measures of severity that should not be affected by shifts over time in the probability of laboratory-confirmation of mild cases and should inform risk assessment. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease and University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; and the US National Institutes of Health.

negative: Teicoplanin: an alternative drug for the treatment of coronavirus COVID-19? In December 2019, a new coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, has emerged from China causing pneumonia outbreaks first in the Wuhan region and have now spread worldwide because of its probable high transmission efficiency. Due to the lack of efficient and specific treatments and the need to contain the epidemic, drug repurposing appears to be the best tool to find therapeutic solution. Chloroquine, remdesivir, lopinavir, ribavirin or ritonavir have shown efficacy to inhibit coronavirus in vitro. Teicoplanin, an antibiotic used to treat staphylococci infection, previously showed efficacy to inhibit the first stage of MERS-coronarivus viral cycle in human cells. This activity is conserved on the SARS-Cov-2, thus placing teicoplanin as a potential treatment for patients with this virus.

negative: Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020 In March and April 2020, control measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual movement and contact were adopted across the United States in an effort to slow the spread and growth of COVID-19. However, a number of states have now begun to ease these restrictions. Here, we evaluate the effects of loosening stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 incidence and related outcomes. We use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the United States. We calibrate the model against county-level daily case and death data collected from February 21, 2020 to May 2, 2020, and project the outbreak in 3,142 US counties for 6 weeks into the future. Projections for daily reported cases, daily new infections (both reported and unreported), new and cumulative hospital bed demand, ICU bed and ventilator demand, as well as daily mortality, are generated. We observe a rebound in COVID-19 incidence and deaths beginning in late May, approximately 2 to 4 weeks after states begin to reopen. Importantly, the lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient broader testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of the COVID-19 until it is well underway.

negative: A deductive approach to modeling the spread of COVID-19 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), previously known as 2019-nCoV, is responsible for the atypical pneumonia pandemic designated as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The confirmed number of cases continues to grow exponentially reaching 492,000 people in 175 countries as of March 25, 2020. 22,169 people (~4.5%) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus have died. We have developed an exponential regression model using the COVID-19 case data (Jan 22 - Mar 22, 2020). Our primary model uses designated Phase 1 countries, who exceed 2500 cases on Mar 22. The model is then applied to Phase 2 countries: those that escaped the initial Phase 1 global expansion of COVID-19. With the exception of stabilizing countries (South Korea, Japan, and Iran) all Phase 1 countries are growing exponentially, as per I2500(t)=120.4 × e0.238t, with a rate, r = 0.238 ± 0.068. Excluding China, the BRICS developing nations and Australia are in Phase 2. Case data from Phase 2 countries are following the model derived from Phase 1 countries. In the absence of measures employed to flatten the curve including social distancing, quarantine, and healthcare expansion, our model projects over 274,000 cases and 12,300 deaths in the US by Mar 31. India can expect 123,000 cases by April 16. By flattening the curve to the growth rate of stabilizing countries (r = 0.044 ± 0.062), the US would prevent 8,500 deaths by Mar 31, and India would prevent 5,500 deaths by April 16.

negative: Effects of a DPP-4 inhibitor and RAS blockade on clinical outcomes of patients with diabetes and COVID-19 Background: Dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) and renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockade are reported to affect the clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). However, the effectiveness of these drugs in large populations is unclear. Subjects and Methods: As of May 2020, data analysis was conducted on all subjects who could confirm their history of claims related to COVID-19 in the National Health Review and Assessment Service database in Korea. Using the COVID-19 and claims data of the past 5 years, we compared the short-term prognosis of COVID-19 infection according to the use of DPP-4i and RAS blockade. Results: Totally, data of 67850 subjects were accessible. Of these, 5080 were confirmed COVID-19. Among these, 832 subjects with DM were selected for analysis in this study. Among the subjects, 263 (31.6%) and 327 (39.3%) were DPP-4i and RAS blockade users, respectively. Thirty-four subjects (4.09%) received intensive care or died. The adjusted odds ratio for severe treatment among DPP-4i users was 0.362 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.135-0.971], and that for RAS blockade users was 0.599 (95% CI, 0.251-1.431). No synergy was observed for subjects using both drugs. Conclusion: This population-based study suggests that DPP-4i is significantly associated with a better clinical outcome of patients with COVID-19. However, the effect of RAS blockade is not significant.

negative: Emotional responses and coping strategies of nurses and nursing college students during COVID-19 outbreak Background: Affected by a Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, Since December 2019, there have been more than 76,000 cases of COVID-19 in China, causing more than 3,000 medical staff infections. Due to COVID-19 spreads quickly, is highly contagious, and can be fatal in severe cases, and there are no specific medicines, it poses a huge threat to the life and health of nurses and has a large impact on their emotional responses and coping strategies. Methods: This study conducted an online questionnaire survey from February 1 to 9, 2020 to investigate the current state of emotional responses and coping strategies of nurses and college nursing students in Anhui Province. This study used a modified Brief COPE (Carver, 1997) and a emotional responses scale. Results: The results found that women showed more severe anxiety and fear than men. Participants from cities showed more anxiety and fear than participants from rural, but rural participants showed more sadness than urban participants. The closer COVID-19 is to the participants, the stronger the anxiety and anger. Compared with Nursing college students, nurses have stronger emotional responses and are more willing to use Problem-focused coping. People may have a cycle of "the more fear, the more problem-focused coping". And people may "The more angry, the more emotion-focused coping", "the more problem-focused coping, the more anxious, the more angry, the more sadness". Conclusion: COVID-19 is a pressure source with great influence, both for individuals and for the social public groups. Different individuals and groups may experience different levels of psychological crisis, and those nurses at the core of the incident are affected. Hospitals should focus on providing psychological support to nurses and providing timely psychological assistance and training in coping strategies. Improving nurses' ability to regulate emotions and effective coping strategies, providing a strong guarantee for resolutely winning the battle against epidemic prevention and control.

negative: Activation of AP-1 signal transduction pathway by SARS coronavirus nucleocapsid protein Abstract In March 2003, a novel coronavirus was isolated from patients exhibiting atypical pneumonia and subsequently proven to be the causative agent of the disease now referred to as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The complete genome of the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) has since been sequenced. The SARS-CoV nucleocapsid (SARS-CoV N) shares little homology with other members of the coronavirus family. To determine if the N protein is involved in the regulation of cellular signal transduction, an ELISA-based assay on transcription factors was used. We found that the amount of transcription factors binding to promoter sequences of c-Fos, ATF2, CREB-1, and FosB was increased by the expression of SARS-CoV N. Since these factors are related to AP-1 signal transduction pathway, we investigated whether the AP-1 pathway was activated by SARS-CoV N protein using the PathDetect system. The results demonstrated that the expression of N protein, not the membrane protein (M), activated AP-1 pathway. We also found that SARS-CoV N protein does not activate NF-κB pathway, demonstrating that activation of important cellular pathways by SAS-CoV N protein is selective. Thus our data for the first time indicate that SARS-CoV has encoded a strategy to regulate cellular signaling process.

negative: B-cell depleting therapies may affect susceptibility to acute respiratory illness among patients with multiple sclerosis during the early COVID-19 epidemic in Iran OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the course of COVID-19 is more severe in patients with MS and if MS disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) affect the risk of contracting the disease. METHODS: In a cross-sectional survey, data were collected by sending a questionnaire to 2000 patients with a demyelinating disease through an online portal system. Collected data included the current MS DMT and patient-reported disability level, history of recent sick contact, recent fever, respiratory symptoms, diagnosis with COVID-19, and the disposition after the diagnosis. We defined a COVID-19-suspect group as patients having fever and cough or fever and shortness of breath, or a presumptive diagnosis based on suggestive chest computed tomography. We calculated the proportion of COVID-19-suspect patients and compared their demographics, clinical characteristics, and DMT categories with the rest of survey-responders, using univariable and multivariable models. RESULTS: Out of 712 patients, 34 (4.8%) fulfilled our criteria for being in the COVID-19-suspect group. Only two patients required hospitalization. No patient required intensive care. In a multivariable model, disease duration (p-value=0.017), DMT category (p-value=0.030), and history of sick contact (p-values<0.001) were associated with the risk of being in the COVID-19-suspect group. Being on B-cell depleting antibodies (as compared to non-cell depleting, non-cell trafficking inhibitor DMTs) was associated with a 2.6-fold increase in the risk of being in the COVID-19-suspect group. (RR: 3.55, 95%CI: 1.45, 8.68, p-value=0.005). CONCLUSIONS: The course of infection in patients with MS suspected of having COVID-19 was mild to moderate, and all patients had a full recovery. B-cell depleting antibodies may increase the susceptibility to contracting COVID-19.

negative: Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for con- trolling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by Rc), is less than unity. This equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable, for a special case of the model where quarantined-susceptible individuals do not acquire COVID-19 infection during quarantine, when Rc is less than unity. The epidemiological consequence of this theoretical result is that, the community-wide implementation of control interventions that can bring (and maintain) Rc to a value less than unity will lead to the effective control (or elimination) of COVID-19 in the community. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on baseline levels of interventions) are 105, 100 for New York state and 164, 000 for the entire US by the end of the pandemic. These numbers dramatically decreased by 80% and 64%, respectively, if adherence to strict social-distancing measures is improved and maintained until the end of May or June. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distance measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy ≥ 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy.

negative: Mental health and psychosocial well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic: the invisible elephant in the room The novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic has emerged as a truly formidable threat to humankind’s existence. In the wake of the massively volatile global situation created by COVID-19, it is vital to recognize that the trauma it causes can affect people in different ways, at the individual and collective levels, resulting in mental health challenges for many. Although mental health problems account for about one-third of the world’s disability among adults, these issues tend to be under-addressed and overlooked in society and are closely associated with deadly disease outbreaks. In large scale outbreaks, the mental health problems experienced are not limited to infected persons but also extend to involve frontline health workers and community members alike. While it is crucial to limit the spread of infections during an outbreak, previous experience suggests that mental and behavioural health interventions should be fully included in public health response strategies.

negative: Management guidelines for obstetric patients and neonates born to mothers with suspected or probable severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) No. 225, April 2009 Abstract Objective This document summarizes the limited experience of SARS in pregnancy and suggests guidelines for management. Outcomes Cases reported from Asia suggest that maternal and fetal outcomes are worsened by SARS during pregnancy. Evidence Medline was searched for relevant articles published in English from 2000 to 2007. Case reports were reviewed and expert opinion sought. Values Recommendations were made according to the guidelines developed by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care.

negative: Canada: Porcine epidemic diarrhea in Canada: an emerging disease case study.

negative: Molecular analysis of Brazilian strains of bovine coronavirus (BCoV) reveals a deletion within the hypervariable region of the S1 subunit of the spike glycoprotein also found in human coronavirus OC43 Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) causes enteric and respiratory dis- orders in calves and dysentery in cows. In this study, 51 stool samples of calves from 10 Brazilian dairy farms were analysed by an RT-PCR that amplifies a 488-bp fragment of the hypervariable region of the spike glycoprotein gene. Maximum parsimony genealogy with a heuristic algorithm using sequences from 15 field strains studied here and 10 sequences from GenBank and bredavirus as an outgroup virus showed the existence of two major clusters (1 and 2) in this viral species, the Brazilian strains segregating in both of them. The mean nucleotide identity between the 15 Brazilian strains was 98.34%, with a mean amino acid similarity of 98%. Strains from cluster 2 showed a deletion of 6 amino acids inside domain II of the spike protein that was also found in human coronavirus strain OC43, supporting the recent proposal of a zoonotic spill- over of BCoV. These results contribute to the molecular characterization of BCoV, to the prediction of the efficiency of immunogens, and to the definition of molecular markers useful for epidemiologic surveys on coronavirus-caused diseases.

negative: Human Coronaviruses: A Review of Virus–Host Interactions Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are known respiratory pathogens associated with a range of respiratory outcomes. In the past 14 years, the onset of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have thrust HCoVs into spotlight of the research community due to their high pathogenicity in humans. The study of HCoV-host interactions has contributed extensively to our understanding of HCoV pathogenesis. In this review, we discuss some of the recent findings of host cell factors that might be exploited by HCoVs to facilitate their own replication cycle. We also discuss various cellular processes, such as apoptosis, innate immunity, ER stress response, mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway and nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) pathway that may be modulated by HCoVs.

negative: AGA Institute Rapid Recommendations for Gastrointestinal Procedures During the COVID-19 Pandemic

negative: More effective strategies are required to strengthen public awareness of COVID-19: Evidence from Google Trends Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed stress on the health and well-being of both Chinese people and the public worldwide. Global public interest in this new issue largely reflects people's attention to COVID-19 and their willingness to take precautionary actions. This study aimed to examine global public awareness of COVID-19 using Google Trends. Methods: Using Google Trends, we retrieved public query data for terms of "2019-nCoV + SARS-CoV-2 + novel coronavirus + new coronavirus + COVID-19 + Corona Virus Disease 2019" between the 31st December 2019 and the 24th February 2020 in six major English-speaking countries, including the USA, the UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Dynamic series analysis demonstrates the overall change trend of relative search volume (RSV) for the topic on COVID-19. We compared the top-ranking related queries and sub-regions distribution of RSV about COVID-19 across different countries. The correlation between daily search volumes on the topic related to COVID-19 and the daily number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed. Results: The overall search trend of RSV regarding COVID-19 increased during the early period of observing time and reached the first apex on 31st January 2020. A shorter response time and a longer duration of public attention to COVID-19 was observed in public from the USA, the UK, Australia, and Canada, than that in Ireland and New Zealand. A slightly positive correlation between daily RSV about COVID-19 and the daily number of confirmed cases was observed (P < 0.05). People across countries presented a various interest to the RSV on COVID-19, and public awareness of COVID-19 was different in various sub-regions within countries. Conclusions: The results suggest that public response time to COVID-19 was different across countries, and the overall duration of public attention was short. The current study reminds us that governments should strengthen the publicity of COVID-19 nationally, strengthen the public's vigilance and sensitivity to COVID-19, inform public the importance of protecting themselves with enough precautionary measures, and finally control the spread of COVID-19 globally.

negative: Keratoconjunctivitis as the initial medical presentation of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Abstract We present a case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with an initial medical presentation of keratoconjunctivitis, the first such reported case in North America. The patient's primary symptom was a red eye with watery discharge, though she did have mild respiratory symptoms, without fever. She was diagnosed with keratoconjunctivitis; evolving corneal findings were characterized through repeat visits to ophthalmology. A conjunctival swab of the affected eye was positive for the SAR-CoV-2 virus. This case emphasizes the importance of ensuring that first-line health care providers, including ophthalmologists, optometrists, emergency physicians, and family physicians, consider COVID-19 on the differential for any patient with recent travel who presents with acute conjunctivitis. Having a high index of suspicion with this presentation would allow for appropriate precautions to be taken to prevent further spread of COVID-19.

negative: The Pace and Pulse of the Fight against Coronavirus across the US, A Google Trends Approach The coronavirus pandemic is impacting our lives at unprecedented speed and scale - including how we eat and work, what we worry about, how much we move, and our ability to earn. Google Trends can be used as a proxy for what people are thinking, needing, and planning. We use it to provide both insights into, and potential indicators of, important changes in information-seeking patterns during pandemics like COVID-19. Key questions we address are: (1) What is the relationship between the coronavirus outbreak and internet searches related to healthcare seeking, government support programs, media sources of different ideologies, planning around social activities, travel, and food, and new coronavirus-specific behaviors and concerns?; (2) How does the popularity of search terms differ across states and regions and can we explain these differences?; (3) Can we find distinct, tangible search patterns across states suggestive of policy gaps to inform pandemic response? (4) Does Google Trends data correlate with and potentially precede real-life events? We suggest strategic shifts for policy makers to improve the precision and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and recommend the development of a real-time dashboard as a decision-making tool. Methods used include trend analysis of US search data; geographic analyses of the differences in search popularity across US states during March 1st to April 15th, 2020; and Principal Component Analyses (PCA) to extract search patterns across states.

negative: The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

negative: Forecasting influenza epidemics by integrating internet search queries and traditional surveillance data with the support vector machine regression model in Liaoning, from 2011 to 2015 BACKGROUND: Influenza epidemics pose significant social and economic challenges in China. Internet search query data have been identified as a valuable source for the detection of emerging influenza epidemics. However, the selection of the search queries and the adoption of prediction methods are crucial challenges when it comes to improving predictions. The purpose of this study was to explore the application of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) regression model in merging search engine query data and traditional influenza data. METHODS: The official monthly reported number of influenza cases in Liaoning province in China was acquired from the China National Scientific Data Center for Public Health from January 2011 to December 2015. Based on Baidu Index, a publicly available search engine database, search queries potentially related to influenza over the corresponding period were identified. An SVM regression model was built to be used for predictions, and the choice of three parameters (C, γ, ε) in the SVM regression model was determined by leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) during the model construction process. The model’s performance was evaluated by the evaluation metrics including Root Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Percentage Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. RESULTS: In total, 17 search queries related to influenza were generated through the initial query selection approach and were adopted to construct the SVM regression model, including nine queries in the same month, three queries at a lag of one month, one query at a lag of two months and four queries at a lag of three months. The SVM model performed well when with the parameters (C = 2, γ = 0.005, ɛ = 0.0001), based on the ensemble data integrating the influenza surveillance data and Baidu search query data. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrated the feasibility of using internet search engine query data as the complementary data source for influenza surveillance and the efficiency of SVM regression model in tracking the influenza epidemics in Liaoning.

negative: SARS Abstract Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) emerged in southern China in late 2002. It first spread within Guangdong Province and then to other parts of China. Via air travelers, it quickly reached various countries around the globe, causing several major hospital outbreaks. Within weeks, the causative agent, a previously unknown coronavirus (SARS-CoV), was identified, thanks to an unprecedented international effort led by the World Health Organization (WHO). Its origin was quickly traced to wild animals traded locally for culinary purposes. Masked palm civet and some other species seem to have acted as intermediate hosts. Since then, SARS-like coronaviruses were found in different bat species in China and elsewhere, and bats are now regarded as the wildlife reservoir for SARS-CoV. Fortunately, the SARS outbreak could be contained within months. Until July 2003, it had caused 8096 cases, with 774 deaths. Once adequate measures such as isolating patients and quarantining their contacts were strictly adhered to, further transmission between human beings could be interrupted. SARS is an example of how rapidly an infectious agent can spread in the modern world. At the same time, it should serve as a showcase of how international cooperation and modern science can help to combat the spread of infectious diseases.

negative: Forced Migration and Refugee Policy This chapter focuses on international, regional and national legal norms, policies, organizational roles and relations and good practices that are applicable to a broad range of humanitarian crises that have migration consequences. These crises and the resulting displacement differ by their causes, intensity, geography, phases and affected populations. The chapter examines movements stemming directly and indirectly from: persecution, armed conflict, extreme natural hazards that cause extensive destruction of lives and infrastructure; slower onset environmental degradation, such as drought and desertification, which undermine livelihoods; manmade environmental disasters, such as nuclear accidents, which destroy habitat and livelihoods; communal violence, civil strife and political instability; and global pandemics that cause high levels of mortality and morbidity. Demographic trends are themselves drivers of displacement in conjunction with other factors. This can play out in two ways—demography as a macro-level factor and demographic composition as a micro-level driver of movement. The chapter compares the paucity of legal, policy and institutional frameworks for addressing crisis-related movements with the more abundant frameworks for addressing the consequences of refugee movements. The chapter discusses the policy implications of the findings, positing that State-led initiatives such as the Nansen and Migrants in Countries in Crisis initiatives are useful mechanisms to fill protection gaps in the absence of political will to adopt and implement more binding legal frameworks. It also argues that, in the context of slow onset climate change, in particular, there is a need for better understanding of how population density, distribution and growth as well as household composition affect vulnerability and resilience to the drivers of displacement.

negative: Locating and repurposing anesthetic machines as intensive care unit ventilators during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: Estimating instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China Abstract Objective The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China has been basically controlled. However, the global epidemic of COVID-19 is worsening. We established a method to estimate instant case fatality rate and cure rate of COVID-19 in China. Methods We collected 82735 confirmed cases released officially by Chinese authorities from Dec 8, 2019 to April 18, 2020. The estimated diagnosis dates of deaths and cured cases were calculated based on median cure time or median death time of individual cases. Afterward, instant fatality rate was calculated according to the number of deaths and cured cases on the same estimated diagnosis date. Results In China, the instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 3.8-14.6% from Jan 1 to Jan 17, and then gradually declined and stabilized at 5.7% in April. The average case fatality rate in China was 6.1%±2.9%. While, the case fatality rate was 1.0±0.4% in China except Hubei. The cure rates of COVID-19 were 93.9%±2.9% in China, and stabilized at 94.3%, while it was 99.0%±0.4% in China except Hubei. Conclusion The instant case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China was much higher than that in China except Hubei. The case fatality rate of COVID-19 in China was underestimated.

negative: Coronavirus derived expression systems Abstract Both helper dependent expression systems, based on two components, and single genomes constructed by targeted recombination, or by using infectious cDNA clones, have been developed. The sequences that regulate transcription have been characterized mainly using helper dependent expression systems and it will now be possible to validate them using single genomes. The genome of coronaviruses has been engineered by modification of the infectious cDNA leading to an efficient (>20 μg ml−1) and stable (>20 passages) expression of the foreign gene. The possibility of engineering the tissue and species tropism to target expression to different organs and animal species, including humans, increases the potential of coronaviruses as vectors. Thus, coronaviruses are promising virus vectors for vaccine development and, possibly, for gene therapy.

negative: Race, Socioeconomic Deprivation, and Hospitalization for COVID-19 in English participants of a National Biobank Preliminary reports suggest that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to disproportionate morbidity and mortality among historically disadvantaged populations. The extent to which these disparities are related to socioeconomic versus biologic factors is largely unknown. We investigate the racial and socioeconomic associations of COVID-19 hospitalization among 418,794 participants of the UK Biobank, of whom 549 (0.13%) had been hospitalized. Both black participants (odds ratio 3.4; 95%CI 2.4-4.9) and Asian participants (odds ratio 2.1; 95%CI 1.5-3.2) were at substantially increased risk as compared to white participants. We further observed a striking gradient in COVID-19 hospitalization rates according to the Townsend Deprivation Index - a composite measure of socioeconomic deprivation - and household income. Adjusting for such factors led to only modest attenuation of the increased risk in black participants, adjusted odds ratio 3.1 (95%CI 2.0-4.8). These observations confirm and extend earlier preliminary and lay press reports of higher morbidity in non-white individuals in the context of a large population of participants in a national biobank. The extent to which this increased risk relates to variation in pre-existing comorbidities, differences in testing or hospitalization patterns, or additional disparities in social determinants of health warrants further study.

negative: Operating Room Guide for Confirmed or Suspected COVID-19 Pregnant Patients Requiring Cesarean Delivery We sought to provide a clinical practice protocol for our labor and delivery (L&D) unit, to care for confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients requiring cesarean delivery. A multidisciplinary team approach guidance was designed to simplify and streamline the flow and care of patient with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 requiring cesarean delivery. A protocol was designed to improve staff readiness, minimize risks, and streamline care processes. This is a suggested protocol which may not be applicable to all health care settings but can be adapted to local resources and limitations of individual L&D units. Guidance and information are changing rapidly; therefore, we recommend continuing to update the protocol as needed. Key Points: Cesarean delivery for confirmed or suspected novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. Team-based approach for streamline care. Labor and delivery protocols for COVID-19 positive patients.

negative: Incidence, clinical characteristics and prognostic factor of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis Background: Recently, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak started in Wuhan, China. Although the clinical features of COVID-19 have been reported previously, data regarding the risk factors associated with the clinical outcomes are lacking. Objectives: To summary and analyze the clinical characteristics and identify the predictors of disease severity and mortality. Methods: The PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, Embase, Cochrane and MedRxiv databases were searched through February 25, 2020. Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) recommendations were followed. We extracted and pooled data using random-effects meta-analysis to summary the clinical feature of the confirmed COVID-19 patients, and further identify risk factors for disease severity and death. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 method and explained with subgroup analysis and meta-regression. Results: A total of 30 studies including 53000 patients with COVID-19 were included in this study, the mean age was 49.8 years (95% CI, 47.5-52.2 yrs) and 55.5% were male. The pooled incidence of severity and mortality were 20.2% (95% CI, 15.1-25.2%) and 3.1% (95% CI, 1.9-4.2%), respectively. The predictor for disease severity included old age (≥ 50 yrs, odds ratio [OR] = 2.61; 95% CI, 2.29-2.98), male (OR =1.348, 95% CI, 1.195-1.521), smoking (OR =1.734, 95% CI, 1.146-2.626) and any comorbidity (OR = 2.635, 95% CI, 2.098-3.309), especially chronic kidney disease (CKD, OR = 6.017; 95% CI, 2.192-16.514), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, OR = 5.323; 95% CI, 2.613-10.847) and cerebrovascular disease (OR = 3.219; 95% CI, 1.486-6.972). In terms of laboratory results, increased lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP) and D-dimer and decreased blood platelet and lymphocytes count were highly associated with severe COVID-19 (all for P < 0.001). Meanwhile, old age (≥ 60 yrs, RR = 9.45; 95% CI, 8.09-11.04), followed by cardiovascular disease (RR = 6.75; 95% CI, 5.40-8.43) hypertension (RR = 4.48; 95% CI, 3.69-5.45) and diabetes (RR = 4.43; 95% CI, 3.49-5.61) were found to be independent prognostic factors for the COVID-19 related death. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first evidence-based medicine research to explore the risk factors of prognosis in patients with COVID-19, which is helpful to identify early-stage patients with poor prognosis and adapt effective treatment.

negative: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A primer for emergency physicians INTRODUCTION: Rapid worldwide spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in a global pandemic. OBJECTIVE: This review article provides emergency physicians with an overview of the most current understanding of COVID-19 and recommendations on the evaluation and management of patients with suspected COVID-19. DISCUSSION: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus responsible for causing COVID-19, is primarily transmitted from person-to-person through close contact (approximately 6 ft) by respiratory droplets. Symptoms of COVID-19 are similar to other viral upper respiratory illnesses. Three major trajectories include mild disease with upper respiratory symptoms, non-severe pneumonia, and severe pneumonia complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Emergency physicians should focus on identifying patients at risk, isolating suspected patients, and informing hospital infection prevention and public health authorities. Patients with suspected COVID-19 should be asked to wear a facemask. Respiratory etiquette, hand washing, and personal protective equipment are recommended for all healthcare personnel caring for suspected cases. Disposition depends on patient symptoms, hemodynamic status, and patient ability to self-quarantine. CONCLUSION: This narrative review provides clinicians with an updated approach to the evaluation and management of patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected COVID-19.

negative: First Confirmed Cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) Infection in the United States, Updated Information on the Epidemiology of MERS‐CoV Infection, and Guidance for the Public, Clinicians, and Public Health Authorities—May 2014 This report highlights the first two cases of MERS coronavirus in the United States. Although these patients were not transplant recipients, it is important for transplant professionals to be aware of this infection and to consider it when evaluating patients with respiratory illnesses and travel to the Arabian peninsula.

negative: Emerging Influenza and Psychosis: An Important Story in Psychological Medicine

negative: Building an International Consortium for Tracking Coronavirus Health Status Information is the most potent protective weapon we have to combat a pandemic, at both the individual and global level. For individuals, information can help us make personal decisions and provide a sense of security. For the global community, information can inform policy decisions and offer critical insights into the epidemic of COVID-19 disease. Fully leveraging the power of information, however, requires large amounts of data and access to it. To achieve this, we are making steps to form an international consortium, Coronavirus Census Collective (CCC, coronaviruscensuscollective.org), that will serve as a hub for integrating information from multiple data sources that can be utilized to understand, monitor, predict, and combat global pandemics. These sources may include self-reported health status through surveys (including mobile apps), results of diagnostic laboratory tests, and other static and real-time geospatial data. This collective effort to track and share information will be invaluable in predicting hotspots of disease outbreak, identifying which factors control the rate of spreading, informing immediate policy decisions, evaluating the effectiveness of measures taken by health organizations on pandemic control, and providing critical insight on the etiology of COVID-19. It will also help individuals stay informed on this rapidly evolving situation and contribute to other global efforts to slow the spread of disease. In the past few weeks, several initiatives across the globe have surfaced to use daily self-reported symptoms as a means to track disease spread, predict outbreak locations, guide population measures and help in the allocation of healthcare resources. The aim of this paper is to put out a call to standardize these efforts and spark a collaborative effort to maximize the global gain while protecting participant privacy.

negative: Chest CT Scan of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Case-Control Study Introduction: This paper sought to investigate the clinical characteristic differences between suspected and confirmed patients with COVID-19 from CT scan to prevent and treat this infectious disease, since the coronavirus outbreak in the world has seriously affected the quality of life. Methods: We proposed to use a retrospective case-control study to give a comparison between suspected patients and confirmed patients in the clinical characteristics. Results: (56%) patients were confirmed for COVID-19 from suspected 167 patients. We find that elder people were more likely to be infected by COVID-19. Among the confirmed 94 patients, 2 (2%) patients were admitted to an intensive care unit, and 0 (0%) patients died during the study period. We find that images of CT scan of patients with a COVID-19 are significantly different from patients without a COVID-19. Conclusions: To our best knowledge, it is the first time to use the case-control design to study the coronavirus disease, since it is particularly appropriate for investigating infectious disease outbreaks. The clinical treatment experience in this study can supply a guideline for treating COVID-19 as the number of the infected patients is increasing in the world. Compared with other studies, we find that the mortality rate and the intensive care unit rate can be reduced if patients can be treated timely in the right identification and detection with nucleic acid testing and chest CT scan. Therefore, we recommend nucleic acid testing and chest CT scan for the clinical treatment practice from this successful clinical treatment study.

negative: Asymptomatic cases in a family cluster with SARS-CoV-2 infection

negative: DO IT Trial: vitamin D Outcomes and Interventions in Toddlers – a TARGet Kids! randomized controlled trial BACKGROUND: Vitamin D levels are alarmingly low (<75 nmol/L) in 65-70% of North American children older than 1 year. An increased risk of viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), asthma-related hospitalizations and use of anti-inflammatory medication have all been linked with low vitamin D. No study has determined whether wintertime vitamin D supplementation can reduce the risk of URTI and asthma exacerbations, two of the most common and costly illnesses of early childhood. The objectives of this study are: 1) to compare the effect of ‘high dose’ (2000 IU/day) vs. ‘standard dose’ (400 IU/day) vitamin D supplementation in achieving reductions in laboratory confirmed URTI and asthma exacerbations during the winter in preschool-aged Canadian children; and 2) to assess the effect of ‘high dose’ vitamin D supplementation on vitamin D serum levels and specific viruses that cause URTI. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a pragmatic randomized controlled trial. Over 4 successive winters we will recruit 750 healthy children 1–5 years of age. Participating physicians are part of a primary healthcare research network called TARGet Kids!. Children will be randomized to the ‘standard dose’ or ‘high dose’ oral supplemental vitamin D for a minimum of 4 months (200 children per group). Parents will obtain a nasal swab from their child with each URTI, report the number of asthma exacerbations and complete symptom checklists. Unscheduled physician visits for URTIs and asthma exacerbations will be recorded. By May, a blood sample will be drawn to determine vitamin D serum levels. The primary analysis will be a comparison of URTI rate between study groups using a Poisson regression model. Secondary analyses will compare vitamin D serum levels, asthma exacerbations and the frequency of specific viral agents between groups. DISCUSSION: Identifying whether vitamin D supplementation of preschoolers can reduce wintertime viral URTIs and asthma exacerbations and what dose is optimal may reduce population wide morbidity and associated health care and societal costs. This information will assist in determining practice and health policy recommendations related to vitamin D supplementation in healthy Canadian preschoolers.

negative: Which Measures are Effective in Containing COVID-19?Empirical Research Based on Prevention and Control Cases in China Various epidemic prevention and control measures aimed at reducing person-to-person contact has paid a certain cost while controlling the epidemic. So accurate evaluation of these measures helps to maximize the effectiveness of prevention and control while minimizing social costs. In this paper, we develop the model in Dirk Brockmann and Dirk Helbing (2013) to theoretically explain the impact mechanism of traffic control and social distancing measures on the spread of the epidemic, and empirically tests the effect of the two measures in China at the present stage using econometric approach. We found that both traffic control and social distancing measures have played a very good role in controlling the development of the epidemic. Nationally, social distancing measures are better than traffic control measures; the two measures are complementary and their combined action will play a better epidemic prevention effect; Traffic control and social distancing do not work everywhere. Traffic control only works in cities with higher GDP per capita and population size, while fails in cities with lower GDP per capita and population size. In cities with lower population size, social distancing becomes inoperative; the rapid and accurate transmission of information, a higher protection awareness of the public, and a stronger confidence of residents in epidemic prevention can promote the realization of the measure effects. The findings above verify the effectiveness and correctness of the measures implemented in China at present, at the same time, we propose that it is necessary to fully consider the respective characteristics of the two measures, cooperating and complementing each other; what's more, measures should be formulated according to the city's own situation, achieving precise epidemic prevention; Finally, we should increase the transparency of information, improve protection awareness of the public, guide emotions of the public in a proper way, enhancing public confidence.

negative: Positive rate of RT-PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 4880 cases from one hospital in Wuhan, China, from Jan to Feb 2020 Abstract Background There’s an outbreak of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection since December 2019, first in China, and currently with more than 80 thousand confirmed infection globally in 29 countries till March 2, 2020. Identification, isolation and caring for patients early are essential to limit human-to-human transmission including reducing secondary infections among close contacts and health care workers, preventing transmission amplification events. The RT-PCR detection of viral nucleic acid test (NAT) was one of the most quickly established laboratory diagnosis method in a novel viral pandemic, just as in this COVID-19 outbreak. Methods 4880 cases that had respiratory infection symptoms or close contact with COVID-19 patients in hospital in Wuhan, China, were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by use of quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) on samples from the respiratory tract. Positive rates were calculated in groups divided by genders or ages. Results The positive rate was about 38% for the total 4880 specimens. Male and older population had a significant higher positive rates. However, 57% was positive among the specimens from the Fever Clinics. Binary logistic regression analysis showed that age, not gender, was the risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection in fever clinics. Conclusions Therefore, we concluded that viral NAT played an important role in identifying SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: Global Trends in Epidemiology of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) In December 2019, suddenly 54 cases of viral pneumonia emerged in Wuhan, China, caused by some unknown microorganism. The virus responsible for these pneumonia infections was identified as novel coronavirus of the family Coronaviridae. The novel coronavirus was renamed as COVID-19 by WHO. Infection from the virus has since increased exponentially and has spread all over the world in more than 196 countries. The WHO has declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The virus is highly infectious and can cause human-to-human transmission. Every 24 h, cases of COVID-19 increase severalfolds. The WHO is monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 spread very closely via a global surveillance system. The current situation demands the enforcement of strict laws which would help in inhibiting the further spread of COVID-19. Social distancing, international travel restrictions to affected countries, and hygiene are three important ways to nullify SARS-CoV-2.Government and private organizations need to come forward and work together during this pandemic. Public awareness, social distancing, and sterilization must be maintained to neutralize the viral infection, especially in major hot spots.

negative: Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized with Laboratory-Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 - COVID-NET, 14 States, March 1-30, 2020 Since SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), was first detected in December 2019 (1), approximately 1.3 million cases have been reported worldwide (2), including approximately 330,000 in the United States (3). To conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations in the United States, the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) was created using the existing infrastructure of the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) (4) and the Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RSV-NET). This report presents age-stratified COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates for patients admitted during March 1-28, 2020, and clinical data on patients admitted during March 1-30, 2020, the first month of U.S. surveillance. Among 1,482 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, 74.5% were aged ≥50 years, and 54.4% were male. The hospitalization rate among patients identified through COVID-NET during this 4-week period was 4.6 per 100,000 population. Rates were highest (13.8) among adults aged ≥65 years. Among 178 (12%) adult patients with data on underlying conditions as of March 30, 2020, 89.3% had one or more underlying conditions; the most common were hypertension (49.7%), obesity (48.3%), chronic lung disease (34.6%), diabetes mellitus (28.3%), and cardiovascular disease (27.8%). These findings suggest that older adults have elevated rates of COVID-19-associated hospitalization and the majority of persons hospitalized with COVID-19 have underlying medical conditions. These findings underscore the importance of preventive measures (e.g., social distancing, respiratory hygiene, and wearing face coverings in public settings where social distancing measures are difficult to maintain) to protect older adults and persons with underlying medical conditions, as well as the general public. In addition, older adults and persons with serious underlying medical conditions should avoid contact with persons who are ill and immediately contact their health care provider(s) if they have symptoms consistent with COVID-19 (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html) (5). Ongoing monitoring of hospitalization rates, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of hospitalized patients will be important to better understand the evolving epidemiology of COVID-19 in the United States and the clinical spectrum of disease, and to help guide planning and prioritization of health care system resources.

negative: Early experience with Severely Burned COVID-19 patients at the National Reference Center for Adult Major Burns in Chile

negative: Spatial variability in the risk of death from COVID-19 in Italy, 2020 Objectives: Italy is bearing the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the death toll there has already surpassed that in Wuhan, the city in China where the coronavirus emerged in December 2019. Here we employ statistical methods to assess the severity of COVID-19 pandemic across different regions of Italy. Method: We manually retrieved the daily cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 stratified by region in Italy. We estimated both the crude and time-delay adjusted case fatality ratio across five geographic regions of Italy. Results: The Northwest that includes Lombardy exhibited the highest time-delay-adjusted CFR at 23.0% followed by the Northeast (14.2%), the Center region (11.6%) and the South region (12.1%). The Island region has exhibited the lowest CFR (9.6%). Conclusion: Our estimates in the Northwest and the Northeast are higher than those reported from most affected areas in China. The CFR in Northwest Italy is 1.9-fold higher than that in Wuhan. Our finding reflects the need of urgent medical support in the Northwest region and the appropriate planning and supplies procurement in other regions of Italy focusing on medical care delivery to those who are at the highest risk of poorer outcomes due to COVID-19.

negative: Transmission potential of COVID-19 in South Korea Since the first identified individual of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection on Jan 20, 2020 in South Korea, the number of confirmed cases rapidly increased. As of Feb 26, 2020, 1,261 cases of COVID-19 including 12 deaths were confirmed in South Korea. Using the incidence data of COVID-19, we estimate the reproduction number at 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4-1.6), which indicates sustained transmission and support the implementation of social distancing measures to rapidly control the outbreak.

negative: Lessons drawn from China and South Korea for managing COVID-19 epidemic: insights from a comparative modeling study We conducted a comparative study of COVID-19 epidemic in three different settings: mainland China, the Guangdong province of China and South Korea, by formulating two disease transmission dynamics models incorporating epidemic characteristics and setting-specific interventions, and fitting the models to multi-source data to identify initial and effective reproduction numbers and evaluate effectiveness of interventions. We estimated the initial basic reproduction number for South Korea, the Guangdong province and mainland China as 2.6 (95% confidence interval (CI): (2.5, 2.7)), 3.0 (95%CI: (2.6, 3.3)) and 3.8 (95%CI: (3.5,4.2)), respectively, given a serial interval with mean of 5 days with standard deviation of 3 days. We found that the effective reproduction number for the Guangdong province and mainland China has fallen below the threshold 1 since February 8th and 18th respectively, while the effective reproduction number for South Korea remains high, suggesting that the interventions implemented need to be enhanced in order to halt further infections. We also project the epidemic trend in South Korea under different scenarios where a portion or the entirety of the integrated package of interventions in China is used. We show that a coherent and integrated approach with stringent public health interventions is the key to the success of containing the epidemic in China and specially its provinces outside its epicenter, and we show that this approach can also be effective to mitigate the burden of the COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea. The experience of outbreak control in mainland China should be a guiding reference for the rest of the world including South Korea.

negative: Critically ill patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome. CONTEXT Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a newly recognized infectious disease capable of causing severe respiratory failure. OBJECTIVE To determine the epidemiological features, course, and outcomes of patients with SARS-related critical illness. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Retrospective case series of 38 adult patients with SARS-related critical illness admitted to 13 intensive care units (ICUs) in the Toronto area between the onset of the outbreak and April 15, 2003. Data were collected daily during the first 7 days in the ICUs, and patients were followed up for 28 days. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The primary outcome was mortality at 28 days after ICU admission. Secondary outcomes included rate of SARS-related critical illness, number of tertiary care ICUs and staff placed under quarantine, and number of health care workers (HCWs) contracting SARS secondary to ICU-acquired transmission. RESULTS Of 196 patients with SARS, 38 (19%) became critically ill, 7 (18%) of whom were HCWs. The median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of the 38 patients was 57.4 (39.0-69.6) years. The median (IQR) duration between initial symptoms and admission to the ICU was 8 (5-10) days. Twenty-nine (76%) required mechanical ventilation and 10 of these (34%) experienced barotrauma. Mortality at 28 days was 13 (34%) of 38 patients and for those requiring mechanical ventilation, mortality was 13 (45%) of 29. Six patients (16%) remained mechanically ventilated at 28 days. Two of these patients had died by 8 weeks' follow-up. Patients who died were more often older, had preexisting diabetes mellitus, and on admission to hospital were more likely to have bilateral radiographic infiltrates. Transmission of SARS in 6 study ICUs led to closure of 73 medical-surgical ICU beds. In 2 university ICUs, 164 HCWs were quarantined and 16 (10%) developed SARS. CONCLUSIONS Critical illness was common among patients with SARS. Affected patients had primarily single-organ respiratory failure, and half of mechanically ventilated patients died. The SARS outbreak greatly strained regional critical care resources.

negative: Creating a Palliative Care Inpatient Response Plan for COVID-19—The UW Medicine Experience Abstract Context The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is stressing health care systems throughout the world. Significant numbers of patients are being admitted to the hospital with severe illness, often in the setting of advanced age and underlying comorbidities. Therefore, palliative care is an important part of the response to this pandemic. The Seattle area and UW Medicine have been on the forefront of the pandemic in the U.S. Methods UW Medicine developed a strategy to implement a palliative care response for a multihospital health care system that incorporates conventional capacity, contingency capacity, and crisis capacity. The strategy was developed by our palliative care programs with input from the health care system leadership. Results In this publication, we share our multifaceted strategy to implement high-quality palliative care in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic that incorporates conventional, contingency, and crisis capacity and focuses on the areas of the hospital caring for the most patients: the emergency department, intensive care units, and acute care services. The strategy focuses on key content areas, including identifying and addressing goals of care, addressing moderate and severe symptoms, and supporting family members. Conclusion Strategy planning for delivery of high-quality palliative care in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic represents an important area of need for our health care systems. We share our experiences of developing such a strategy to help other institutions conduct and adapt such strategies more quickly.

negative: Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart. Detection of human cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection internationally is a global public health concern. Rigorous risk assessment is particularly challenging in a context where surveillance may be subject to under-ascertainment and a selection bias towards more severe cases. We would like to assess whether the virus is capable of causing widespread human epidemics, and whether self-sustaining transmission is already under way. Here we review possible transmission scenarios for MERS-CoV and their implications for risk assessment and control. We discuss how existing data, future investigations and analyses may help in reducing uncertainty and refining the public health risk assessment and present analytical approaches that allow robust assessment of epidemiological characteristics, even from partial and biased surveillance data. Finally, we urge that adequate data be collected on future cases to permit rigorous assessment of the transmission characteristics and severity of MERS-CoV, and the public health threat it may pose. Going beyond minimal case reporting, open international collaboration, under the guidance of the World Health Organization and the International Health Regulations, will impact on how this potential epidemic unfolds and prospects for control.

negative: Myocardial injury is associated with in-hospital mortality of confirmed or suspected COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: A single center retrospective cohort study [Background] Since December 2019, a cluster of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread rapidly from China to other countries. In-hospital mortality are high in severe cases and cardiac injury characterized by elevated cardiac troponin are common among them. The mechanism of cardiac injury and the relationship between cardiac injury and in-hospital mortality remained unclear. Studies focused on cardiac injury in COVID-19 patients are scarce. [Objectives] To investigate the association between cardiac injury and in-hospital mortality of patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19. [Methods] Demographic, clinical, treatment, and laboratory data of consecutive confirmed or suspected COVID-19 patients admitted in Wuhan No.1 Hospital from 25th December, 2019 to 15th February, 2020 were extracted from electronic medical records and were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to explore the risk factors associated with in-hospital death. [Results] A total of 110 patients with confirmed (n=80) or suspected (n=30) COVID-19 were screened and 48 patients (female 31.3%, mean age 70.58{+/-}13.38 year old) among them with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) test within 48 hours after admission were included, of whom 17 (17/48, 35.4%) died in hospital while 31 (31/48, 64.6%) were discharged or transferred to other hospital. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I was levated in 13 (13/48, 27.1%) patents. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed pulse oximetry of oxygen saturation (SpO2) on admission (HR 0.704, 95% CI 0.546-0.909, per 1% decrease, p=0.007), elevated hs-cTnI (HR 10.902, 95% 1.279-92.927, p=0.029) and elevated d-dimer (HR 1.103, 95%CI 1.034-1.176, per 1mg/L increase, p=0.003) on admission were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. [Conclusions] Cardiac injury defined by hs-cTnI elevation and elevated d-dimer on admission were risk factors for in-hospital death, while higher SpO2 could be seen as a protective factor, which could help clinicians to identify patients with adverse outcome at the early stage of COVID-19.

negative: Global status of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in dromedary camels: a systematic review Dromedary camels have been shown to be the main reservoir for human Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) infections. This systematic review aims to compile and analyse all published data on MERS-coronavirus (CoV) in the global camel population to provide an overview of current knowledge on the distribution, spread and risk factors of infections in dromedary camels. We included original research articles containing laboratory evidence of MERS-CoV infections in dromedary camels in the field from 2013 to April 2018. In general, camels only show minor clinical signs of disease after being infected with MERS-CoV. Serological evidence of MERS-CoV in camels has been found in 20 countries, with molecular evidence for virus circulation in 13 countries. The seroprevalence of MERS-CoV antibodies increases with age in camels, while the prevalence of viral shedding as determined by MERS-CoV RNA detection in nasal swabs decreases. In several studies, camels that were sampled at animal markets or quarantine facilities were seropositive more often than camels at farms as well as imported camels vs. locally bred camels. Some studies show a relatively higher seroprevalence and viral detection during the cooler winter months. Knowledge of the animal reservoir of MERS-CoV is essential to develop intervention and control measures to prevent human infections.

negative: The history and epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus Corona viruses cause common cold, and infections caused by corona viruses are generally self-resolving. During the last 4 years, corona viruses have become the most important viruses worldwide because of the occurrence of several recent deaths caused by corona viruses in Saudi Arabia. Spread of the infection occurred worldwide; however, most cases of mortality have occurred in the Middle East. Owing to the predominance of outbreaks in the Middle Eastern countries, the virus was renamed a Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus (MERS-CoV) by the Corona virus Study Group. The Center for Diseases Control and Prevention and World Health Organization maintain a website that is updated frequently with new cases of MERS-CoV infection. In this review, we describe the history and epidemiology of this novel virus. Studies of the genetics and molecular mechanisms of this virus are expected to facilitate the development of vaccines in the future.

negative: Association of visitation policy and health care-acquired respiratory viral infections in hospitalized children Visitor restriction policies are meant to prevent health care-acquired viral infections; however, data on their efficacy in hospitalized children are limited. We report a 37% reduction in health care-acquired respiratory viral infections in a children's hospital following standardization of the visitation policy that limited the number of visitors during a patient's hospitalization.

negative: Use of Bayesian Belief Network techniques to explore the interaction of biosecurity practices on the probability of porcine disease occurrence in Canada Abstract Identification and quantification of pathogen threats need to be a priority for the Canadian swine industry so that resources can be focused where they will be most effective. Here we create a tool based on a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to model the interaction between biosecurity practices and the probability of occurrence of four different diseases on Canadian swine farms. The benefits of using this novel approach, in comparison to other methods, is that it enables us to explore both the complex interaction and the relative importance of biosecurity practices on the probability of disease occurrence. In order to build the BBN we used two datasets. The first dataset detailed biosecurity practices employed on 218 commercial swine farms across Canada in 2010. The second dataset detailed animal health status and disease occurrence on 90 of those farms between 2010 and 2012. We used expert judgement to identify 15 biosecurity practices that were considered the most important in mitigating disease occurrence on farms. These included: proximity to other livestock holdings, the health status of purchased stock, manure disposal methods, as well as the procedures for admitting vehicles and staff. Four diseases were included in the BBN: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), (a prevalent endemic aerosol pathogen), Swine influenza (SI) (a viral respiratory aerosol pathogen), Mycoplasma pneumonia (MP) (an endemic respiratory disease spread by close contact and aerosol) and Swine dysentery (SD) (an enteric disease which is re-emerging in North America). This model indicated that the probability of disease occurrence was influenced by a number of manageable biosecurity practices. Increased probability of PRRS and of MP were associated with spilt feed (feed that did not fall directly in a feeding trough), not being disposed of immediately and with manure being brought onto the farm premises and spread on land adjacent to the pigs. Increased probabilities of SI and SD were associated with the farm allowing access to visiting vehicles without cleaning or disinfection. SD was also more likely to occur when the health status of purchased stock was not known. Finally, we discuss how such a model can be used by the Canadian swine industry to quantify disease risks and to determine practices that may reduce the probability of disease occurrence.

negative: Clinical Features and Short-term Outcomes of 102 Patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019 in Wuhan, China OBJECTIVE: In December, 2019, a series of pneumonia cases of unknown cause emerged in Wuhan, Hubei, China. In this study, we investigate clinical and laboratory features and short-term outcomes of patients with Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19). METHODS: All patients with COVID-19 admitted to Wuhan University Zhongnan Hospital in Wuhan, China, between January 3 and February 1, 2020 were included. All those patients were with laboratory-confirmed infection. Epidemiological, clinical, radiological characteristics, underlying diseases, laboratory tests treatment, complications and outcomes data were collected. Outcomes were followed up at discharge until Feb 15, 2020. RESULTS: The study cohort included 102 adult patients. The median (IQR) age was 54 years (37-67years) and 48.0% were female. A total of 34 patients (33.3%) were exposed to source of transmission in the hospital setting (as health care workers, patients, or visitors) and 10 patients (9.8%) had a familial cluster. Eighteen patients (17.6%) were admitted to the ICU, and 17 patients died (mortality, 16.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.4%-23.9%). Among patients who survived, they were younger, more likely were health care workers and less likely suffered from comorbidities. They were also less likely suffered from complications. There was no difference in drug treatment rates between the survival and non-survival groups. Patients who survived less likely required admission to the intensive care unit (14.1% vs. 35.3%). Chest imaging examination showed that death patients more likely had ground-glass opacity (41.2% vs. 12.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate was high among the COVID-19 patients described in our cohort who met our criteria for inclusion in this analysis. Patient characteristics seen more frequently in those who died were development of systemic complications following onset of the illness and the severity of disease requiring admission to the ICU. Our data support those described by others that COVID-19 infection results from human-to-human transmission, including familial clustering of cases, and nosocomial transmission. There were no differences in mortality among those who did or did not receive antimicrobial or glucocorticoid drug treatment.

negative: Canada's universal health-care system: achieving its potential Summary Access to health care based on need rather than ability to pay was the founding principle of the Canadian health-care system. Medicare was born in one province in 1947. It spread across the country through federal cost sharing, and eventually was harmonised through standards in a federal law, the Canada Health Act of 1984. The health-care system is less a true national system than a decentralised collection of provincial and territorial insurance plans covering a narrow basket of services, which are free at the point of care. Administration and service delivery are highly decentralised, although coverage is portable across the country. In the setting of geographical and population diversity, long waits for elective care demand the capacity and commitment to scale up effective and sustainable models of care delivery across the country. Profound health inequities experienced by Indigenous populations and some vulnerable groups also require coordinated action on the social determinants of health if these inequities are to be effectively addressed. Achievement of the high aspirations of Medicare's founders requires a renewal of the tripartite social contract between governments, health-care providers, and the public. Expansion of the publicly funded basket of services and coordinated effort to reduce variation in outcomes will hinge on more engaged roles for the federal government and the physician community than have existed in previous decades. Public engagement in system stewardship will also be crucial to achieve a high-quality system grounded in both evidence and the Canadian values of equity and solidarity.

negative: A Canadian perspective on coronavirus disease-19 and neurosurgical residency training

negative: Caution: The clinical characteristics of COVID-19 patients at admission are changing Background With the emergence of 4rd generation transmission, the prevention and treatment of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has entered a new period. We aimed to report several changes in the clinical characteristics at admission of patients with COVID-19. Methods Clinical records and laboratory results of patients suffering from COVID-19 were retrospectively reviewed and matched with the admission dates to analyze the changes in characteristics at the onset of illness. Results Of the 89 affected patients, 31 [34.8%] patients were admitted from January 16 to 22, and 58 [65.2%] were admitted from January 23 to 29. Patients were admitted with more systemic symptoms, such as fever (21 [67.7%] of 31), fatigue (13 [41.9%] of 31), and myalgia (7 [22.6%] of 31), before January 23. More patients (10 [32.3%] of 31) admitted before January 23 had a small amount of sputum production compared with a smaller proportion (4 [6.9%] of 58) of the patients admitted after January 23. Other symptoms, such as cough, nausea, diarrhea, and chest tightness, were not significantly different between the two groups. In addition, the group admitted before January 23 had a larger proportion of patients with reduced lymphocyte (13 [54.2%] of 24), CD3 (11 [54.4%] of 21), and CD8 (9 [42.9%] of 21) counts and elevated serum amyloid A (SAA, 18 [75%] of 24). Conclusions The initial symptoms of recently infected patients seem more insidious, indicating that the new coronavirus may gradually evolve into a virus similar to influenza and latent in asymptomatic carriers for a long time.

negative: COVID-19, SARS and MERS: are they closely related? Abstract Background The 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a new human coronavirus which is spreading with epidemic features in China and other Asian countries; cases have also been reported worldwide. This novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is associated with a respiratory illness that may lead to severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Although related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), COVID-19 shows some peculiar pathogenetic, epidemiological and clinical features which to date are not completely understood. Aims To provide a review of the differences in pathogenesis, epidemiology and clinical features of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Sources The most recent literature in the English language regarding COVID-19 has been reviewed, and extracted data have been compared with the current scientific evidence about SARS and MERS epidemics. Content COVID-19 seems not to be very different from SARS regarding its clinical features. However, it has a fatality rate of 2.3%, lower than that of SARS (9.5%) and much lower than that of MERS (34.4%). The possibility cannot be excluded that because of the less severe clinical picture of COVID-19 it can spread in the community more easily than MERS and SARS. The actual basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19 (2.0–2.5) is still controversial. It is probably slightly higher than the R0 of SARS (1.7–1.9) and higher than that of MERS (<1). A gastrointestinal route of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, which has been assumed for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, cannot be ruled out and needs further investigation. Implications There is still much more to know about COVID-19, especially as concerns mortality and its capacity to spread on a pandemic level. Nonetheless, all of the lessons we learned in the past from the SARS and MERS epidemics are the best cultural weapons with which to face this new global threat.

negative: Investigating the cases of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China using dynamic statistical techniques The initial investigation by local hospital attributed the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to pneumonia with unknown cause that appeared like the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 as public health emergency after it spread outside China to several countries. Thus, an assessment of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) with novel estimation approaches is essential to the global debate. This study is the first to develop both time series and panel data models to construct conceptual tools that examine the nexus between death from COVID-19 and confirmed cases. We collected daily data on four health indicators namely deaths, confirmed cases, suspected cases, and recovered cases across 31 Provinces/States in China. Due to the complexities of the COVID-19, we investigated the unobserved factors including environmental exposures accounting for the spread of the disease through human-to-human transmission. We used estimation methods capable of controlling for cross-sectional dependence, endogeneity, and unobserved heterogeneity. We predicted the impulse-response between confirmed cases of COVID-19 and COVID-19-attributable deaths. Our study revealed that the effect of confirmed cases on the novel coronavirus attributable deaths is heterogeneous across Provinces/States in China. We found a linear relationship between COVID-19 attributable deaths and confirmed cases whereas a nonlinear relationship was confirmed for the nexus between recovery cases and confirmed cases. The empirical evidence revealed that an increase in confirmed cases by 1% increases coronavirus attributable deaths by ~0.10%–~1.71% (95% CI). Our empirical results confirmed the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and common factors that facilitates the novel coronavirus attributable deaths caused by increased levels of confirmed cases. Yet, the role of such a medium that facilitates the transmission of COVID-19 remains unclear. We highlight safety precaution and preventive measures to circumvent the human-to-human transmission.

negative: CORONAVIRUS IN PREGNANCY AND DELIVERY: RAPID REVIEW AND EXPERT CONSENSUS BACKGROUND Person to person spread of COIVD-19 in the UK has now been confirmed. There are limited case series reporting the impact on women affected by coronaviruses (CoV) during pregnancy. In women affected by SARS and MERS, the case fatality rate appeared higher in women affected in pregnancy compared with non-pregnant women. We conducted a rapid, review to guide management of women affected by COVID -19 during pregnancy and developed interim practice guidance with the RCOG and RCPCH to inform maternity and neonatal service planning METHODS Searches were conducted in PubMed and MedRxiv to identify primary case reports, case series, observational studies or randomised-controlled trial describing women affected by coronavirus in pregnancy and on neonates. Data was extracted from relevant papers and the review was drafted with representatives of the RCPCH and RCOG who also provided expert consensus on areas where data were lacking RESULTS From 9964 results on PubMed and 600 on MedRxiv, 18 relevant studies (case reports and case series) were identified. There was inconsistent reporting of maternal, perinatal and neonatal outcomes across case reports and series concerning COVID-19, SARS, MERS and other coronaviruses. From reports of 19 women to date affected by COVID-19 in pregnancy, delivering 20 babies, 3 (16%) were asymptomatic, 1 (5%) was admitted to ICU and no maternal deaths have been reported. Deliveries were 17 by caesarean section, 2 by vaginal delivery, 8 (42%) delivered pre-term. There was one neonatal death, in 15 babies who were tested there was no evidence of vertical transmission. CONCLUSIONS Morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 appears less marked than for SARS and MERS, acknowledging the limited number of cases reported to date. Pre-term delivery affected 42% of women hospitalised with COVID-19, which may put considerable pressure on neonatal services if the UK reasonable worse-case scenario of 80% of the population affected is realised. There has been no evidence of vertical transmission to date. The RCOG and RCPCH have provided interim guidance to help maternity and neonatal services plan their response to COVID-19.

negative: The official French guidelines to protect patients with cancer against SARS-CoV-2 infection

negative: Outbreak investigation in cargo ship in times of COVID-19 crisis, Port of Santos, Brazil In February 2020, a Chinese cargo ship docked at the Port of Santos with reports of crew members with a feverish and respiratory condition. A team was gathered to verify the existence of suspected cases of COVID-19 inside the vessel and define its clearance. All 25 crew members were interviewed, and no suspected cases were found. The vessel was then cleared for port activities. The investigation resulted from the implementation of the contingency plan to face a public health emergency of international importance and several surveillance entities cooperated.

negative: Advancing E-Mental Health in Canada: Report From a Multistakeholder Meeting The need for e-mental health (electronic mental health) services in Canada is significant. The current mental health care delivery models primarily require people to access services in person with a health professional. Given the large number of people requiring mental health care in Canada, this model of care delivery is not sufficient in its current form. E-mental health technologies may offer an important solution to the problem. This topic was discussed in greater depth at the 9th Annual Canadian E-Mental Health Conference held in Toronto, Canada. Themes that emerged from the discussions at the conference include (1) the importance of trust, transparency, human centeredness, and compassion in the development and delivery of digital mental health technologies; (2) an emphasis on equity, diversity, inclusion, and access when implementing e-mental health services; (3) the need to ensure that the mental health workforce is able to engage in a digital way of working; and (4) co-production of e-mental health services among a diverse stakeholder group becoming the standard way of working.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and pregnancy: what obstetricians need to know Coronavirus disease 2019 is an emerging disease with a rapid increase in cases and deaths since its first identification in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Limited data are available about coronavirus disease 2019 during pregnancy; however, information on illnesses associated with other highly pathogenic coronaviruses (ie, severe acute respiratory syndrome and the Middle East respiratory syndrome) might provide insights into coronavirus disease 2019’s effects during pregnancy. Coronaviruses cause illness ranging in severity from the common cold to severe respiratory illness and death. Currently the primary epidemiologic risk factors for coronavirus disease 2019 include travel from mainland China (especially Hubei Province) or close contact with infected individuals within 14 days of symptom onset. Data suggest an incubation period of ∼5 days (range, 2–14 days). Average age of hospitalized patients has been 49–56 years, with a third to half with an underlying illness. Children have been rarely reported. Men were more frequent among hospitalized cases (54–73%). Frequent manifestations include fever, cough, myalgia, headache, and diarrhea. Abnormal testing includes abnormalities on chest radiographic imaging, lymphopenia, leukopenia, and thrombocytopenia. Initial reports suggest that acute respiratory distress syndrome develops in 17–29% of hospitalized patients. Overall case fatality rate appears to be ∼1%; however, early data may overestimate this rate. In 2 reports describing 18 pregnancies with coronavirus disease 2019, all were infected in the third trimester, and clinical findings were similar to those in nonpregnant adults. Fetal distress and preterm delivery were seen in some cases. All but 2 pregnancies were cesarean deliveries and no evidence of in utero transmission was seen. Data on severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome in pregnancy are sparse. For severe acute respiratory syndrome, the largest series of 12 pregnancies had a case-fatality rate of 25%. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome in 4, disseminated intravascular coagulopathy in 3, renal failure in 3, secondary bacterial pneumonia in 2, and sepsis in 2 patients. Mechanical ventilation was 3 times more likely among pregnant compared with nonpregnant women. Among 7 first-trimester infections, 4 ended in spontaneous abortion. Four of 5 women with severe acute respiratory syndrome after 24 weeks’ gestation delivered preterm. For Middle East respiratory syndrome, there were 13 case reports in pregnant women, of which 2 were asymptomatic, identified as part of a contact investigation; 3 patients (23%) died. Two pregnancies ended in fetal demise and 2 were born preterm. No evidence of in utero transmission was seen in severe acute respiratory syndrome or Middle East respiratory syndrome. Currently no coronavirus-specific treatments have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. Because coronavirus disease 2019 might increase the risk for pregnancy complications, management should optimally be in a health care facility with close maternal and fetal monitoring. Principles of management of coronavirus disease 2019 in pregnancy include early isolation, aggressive infection control procedures, oxygen therapy, avoidance of fluid overload, consideration of empiric antibiotics (secondary to bacterial infection risk), laboratory testing for the virus and coinfection, fetal and uterine contraction monitoring, early mechanical ventilation for progressive respiratory failure, individualized delivery planning, and a team-based approach with multispecialty consultations. Information on coronavirus disease 2019 is increasing rapidly. Clinicians should continue to follow the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website to stay up to date with the latest information (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/index.html).

negative: Unequal impact of structural health determinants and comorbidity on COVID-19 severity and lethality in older Mexican adults: Considerations beyond chronological aging BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has had a disproportionate impact on older adults. Mexico's population is younger, yet COVID-19’s impact on older adults is comparable to countries with older population structures. Here, we aim to identify health and structural determinants that increase susceptibility to COVID-19 in older Mexican adults beyond chronological aging. METHODS: We analyzed confirmed COVID-19 cases in older adults using data from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of Mexican Ministry of Health. We modeled risk factors for increased COVID-19 severity and mortality, using mixed models to incorporate multilevel data concerning healthcare access and marginalization. We also evaluated structural factors and comorbidity profiles compared to chronological age for COVID-19 mortality risk prediction. RESULTS: We analyzed 20,804 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in adults aged ≥60 years. Male sex, smoking, diabetes, and obesity were associated with pneumonia, hospitalization and ICU admission in older adults, CKD and COPD were associated with hospitalization. High social lag indexes and access to private care were predictors of COVID-19 severity and mortality. Age was not a predictor of COVID-19 severity in individuals without comorbidities and combination of structural factors and comorbidities were better predictors of COVID-19 lethality and severity compared to chronological age alone. COVID-19 baseline lethality hazards were heterogeneously distributed across Mexican municipalities, particularly when comparing urban and rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Structural factors and comorbidity explain excess risk for COVID-19 severity and mortality over chronological age in older Mexican adults. Clinical decision-making related to COVID-19 should focus away from chronological aging onto more a comprehensive geriatric care approach.

negative: The Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on the Medical Treatment of Chinese Children with Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)：A Multicenter Cross-section Study in the Context of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern Objective: To investigate the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the medical advice seeking of Chinese children with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Materials and Methods: An anonymous online questionnaire survey was conducted in 17 pediatric nephropathy diagnosis and treatment centers in China. The questions collected basic information on the patients and their parents and data on changes in the approach to medical treatment and their needs in the context of the outbreak etc. This is a Multicenter Cross-section Study. Results: A total of 735 valid questionnaires were collected. 555 patients (75.5%) and their parents said that the outbreak had a significant influence on their medical treatment: 264 patients (47.6%) said that it would be delayed by 2 to 4 weeks and 199 patients (35.9%) by 4 to 8 weeks. 510 patients (84.16%) hoped to get in touch with specialists through online consultation, and 528 patients (84.5%) hoped that online consultation could be implemented and that medication could be delivered to them.. A total of 458 patients (62.3%) said that their greatest concern was that the CKD would be aggravated or that they would experience a relapse; only 203 patients were infected by 2019-nCoV. A total of 313 patients (42.5%) experienced anxiety and thus required the intervention of psychologists. Conclusion: The COVID-19 outbreak has affected the medical treatment of children with CKD. Online consultation, medication delivery and psychological counselling are the greatest needs reported by patients and their families and could especially provide solutions for the management of low income children with CKD in remote rural areas in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic.

negative: Managing Cancer Care during the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond Abstract COVID-19 pandemic has posed insurmountable challenges to health care systems globally. Cancer therapy is complex, and outcomes are centered on timing. Many oncology societies and health ministries have issued guidelines for cancer care to enable oncologists and patients navigate the crisis. Lessons learned should inform care models for future pandemics.

negative: A clinical risk score to identify patients with COVID-19 at high risk of critical care admission or death: an observational cohort study. Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic continues to escalate. There is urgent need to stratify patients. Understanding risk of deterioration will assist in admission and discharge decisions, and help selection for clinical studies to indicate where risk of therapy-related complications is justified. Methods An observational cohort of patients acutely admitted to two London hospitals with COVID-19 and positive SARS-CoV-2 swab results was assessed. Demographic details, clinical data, comorbidities, blood parameters and chest radiograph severity scores were collected from electronic health records. Endpoints assessed were critical care admission and death. A risk score was developed to predict outcomes. Findings Analyses included 1,157 patients. Older age, male sex, comorbidities, respiratory rate, oxygenation, radiographic severity, higher neutrophils, higher CRP and lower albumin at presentation predicted critical care admission and mortality. Non-white ethnicity predicted critical care admission but not death. Social deprivation was not predictive of outcome. A risk score was developed incorporating twelve characteristics: age>40, male, non-white ethnicity, oxygen saturations<93%, radiological severity score>3, neutrophil count>8.0 x109/L, CRP>40 mg/L, albumin<34 g/L, creatinine>100 µmol/L, diabetes mellitus, hypertension and chronic lung disease. Risk scores of 4 or higher corresponded to a 28-day cumulative incidence of critical care admission or death of 40.7% (95% CI: 37.1 to 44.4), versus 12.4% (95% CI: 8.2 to 16.7) for scores less than 4. Interpretation Our study identified predictors of critical care admission and death in people admitted to hospital with COVID-19. These predictors were incorporated into a risk score that will inform clinical care and stratify patients for clinical trials.

negative: A Review of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) There is a new public health crises threatening the world with the emergence and spread of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) or the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus originated in bats and was transmitted to humans through yet unknown intermediary animals in Wuhan, Hubei province, China in December 2019. There have been around 96,000 reported cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) and 3300 reported deaths to date (05/03/2020). The disease is transmitted by inhalation or contact with infected droplets and the incubation period ranges from 2 to 14 d. The symptoms are usually fever, cough, sore throat, breathlessness, fatigue, malaise among others. The disease is mild in most people; in some (usually the elderly and those with comorbidities), it may progress to pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multi organ dysfunction. Many people are asymptomatic. The case fatality rate is estimated to range from 2 to 3%. Diagnosis is by demonstration of the virus in respiratory secretions by special molecular tests. Common laboratory findings include normal/ low white cell counts with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP). The computerized tomographic chest scan is usually abnormal even in those with no symptoms or mild disease. Treatment is essentially supportive; role of antiviral agents is yet to be established. Prevention entails home isolation of suspected cases and those with mild illnesses and strict infection control measures at hospitals that include contact and droplet precautions. The virus spreads faster than its two ancestors the SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), but has lower fatality. The global impact of this new epidemic is yet uncertain.

negative: The critical care response to a hospital outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection: an observational study BACKGROUND: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has caused several hospital outbreaks, including a major outbreak at King Abdulaziz Medical City, a 940-bed tertiary-care hospital in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (August–September 2015). To learn from our experience, we described the critical care response to the outbreak. METHODS: This observational study was conducted at the Intensive Care Department which covered 5 ICUs with 60 single-bedded rooms. We described qualitatively and, as applicable, quantitatively the response of intensive care services to the outbreak. The clinical course and outcomes of healthcare workers (HCWs) who had MERS were noted. RESULTS: Sixty-three MERS patients were admitted to 3 MERS-designated ICUs during the outbreak (peak census = 27 patients on August 25, 2015, and the last new case on September 13, 2015). Most patients had multiorgan failure. Eight HCWs had MERS requiring ICU admission (median stay = 28 days): Seven developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, four were treated with prone positioning, four needed continuous renal replacement therapy and one had extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The hospital mortality of ICU MERS patients was 63.4 % (0 % for the HCWs). In response to the outbreak, the number of negative-pressure rooms was increased from 14 to 38 rooms in 3 MERS-designated ICUs. Patients were managed with a nurse-to-patient ratio of 1:0.8. Infection prevention practices were intensified. As a surrogate, surface disinfectant and hand hygiene gel consumption increased by ~30 % and 17 N95 masks were used per patient/day on average. Family visits were restricted to 2 h/day. Although most ICU staff expressed concerns about acquiring MERS, all reported to work normally. During the outbreak, 27.0 % of nurses and 18.4 % of physicians working in the MERS-designated ICUs reported upper respiratory symptoms, and were tested for MERS-CoV. Only 2/196 (1.0 %) ICU nurses and 1/80 (1.3 %) physician tested positive, had mild disease and recovered fully. The total sick leave duration was 138 days for nurses and 30 days for physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Our hospital outbreak of MERS resulted in 63 patients requiring organ support and prolonged ICU stay with a high mortality rate. The ICU response required careful facility and staff management and proper infection control and prevention practices.

negative: Quantitative and sensitive detection of the SARS-CoV spike protein using bispecific monoclonal antibody-based enzyme-linked immunoassay Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) spike protein is known to mediate receptor interaction and immune recognition and thus it is considered as a major target for vaccine design. The spike protein plays an important role in virus entry, virus receptor interactions, and virus tropism. Sensitive diagnosis of SARS is essential for the control of the disease in humans. Recombinant SARS-CoV S1 antigen was produced and purified for the development of monoclonal and bi-specific monoclonal antibodies. The hybridomas secreting anti-S1 antibodies, F26G18 and P136.8D12, were fused respectively with the YP4 hybridoma to generate quadromas. The sandwich ELISA was formed by using F26G18 as a coating antibody and biotinylated F26G18 as a detection antibody with a detection limit of 0.037μg/ml (p <0.02). The same detection limit was found with P136.8D12 as a coating antibody and biotinylated F26G18 as a detection antibody. The sensitivity was improved (detection limit of 0.019μg/ml), however, when using bi-specific monoclonal antibody (F157) as the detection antibody. In conclusion, the method described in this study allows sensitive detection of a recombinant SARS spike protein by sandwich ELISA with bi-specific monoclonal antibody and could be used for the diagnosis of patients suspected with SARS.

negative: Screening of faecal microbiota transplant donors during the COVID-19 outbreak: suggestions for urgent updates from an international expert panel

negative: Real-time syndrome surveillance in Ontario, Canada: the potential use of emergency departments and Telehealth. OBJECTIVE The purpose of this paper is to review new bioterrorist and emerging infectious threats to public health in Ontario, Canada, and to propose a means of integrating a telephone-based health information service and emergency department triage with a first-line real-time, 24-h a day syndrome surveillance system. This automated system could be beneficial in detecting a bioterrorist threat as well as in detecting and monitoring disease outbreaks such as influenza, Norwalk, West Nile virus, Escherichia coli 0157 or severe acute respiratory syndrome. METHOD The Medline PubMed database was searched for articles relating to bioterrorism and syndromic surveillance from 1997 onwards. The websites of the Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care, Ontario Ministry of Public Safety and Security, Centers for Disease Control and Canadian Population and Public Health Branch of Health Canada were searched for articles relating to bioterrorism and syndromic surveillance. Interviews were conducted with key informants from Telehealth staff, the public health services of Ontario and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA. RESULTS Real-time syndrome surveillance is a new means of detecting disease outbreaks or possibly acts of bioterrorism at the first contact with the healthcare system. It has been used successfully to detect influenza outbreaks at an early stage. The system that is proposed would be a province-wide integrated early warning system for both bioterrorist events and emerging infections. It would use clusters of symptoms tied to temporal, demographic and spatial data to increase sensitivity and specificity. CONCLUSION Real-time syndrome surveillance is an evolving science. Emergency departments and Telehealth in Ontario lend themselves as first contacts to the healthcare system as excellent opportunities to perform syndrome surveillance. They offer the opportunity properly to identify at-risk patients for emerging infections by including contact and travel data into the symptom complex. This could identify at-risk patients early and lead to appropriate public health measures. The benefit of using Telehealth in Ontario is the provincial accessibility of Telehealth and the extensive data collected on one computerized system. Emergency departments should also have a uniform computerized triage data collection system to facilitate surveillance.

negative: Ideas for how informaticians can get involved with COVID-19 research The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on population health and wellbeing. Biomedical informatics is central to COVID-19 research efforts and for the delivery of healthcare for COVID-19 patients. Critical to this effort is the participation of informaticians who typically work on other basic science or clinical problems. The goal of this editorial is to highlight some examples of COVID-19 research areas that could benefit from informatics expertise. Each research idea summarizes the COVID-19 application area, followed by an informatics methodology, approach, or technology that could make a contribution. It is our hope that this piece will motivate and make it easy for some informaticians to adopt COVID-19 research projects.

negative: Protocol for a multicentre study of nosocomial SARS-CoV2 transmission The NOSO-COR Project Introduction: The newly identified SARS-CoV2 can cause serious acute respiratory infections such as pneumonia with a mortality rate of approximately 2% to 4%. In the current context of high incidence rates of SARS-CoV2 in the community, a significant increase in the rate of nosocomial transmission is expected. The risk of nosocomial transmission could even be higher in low-income countries that have fragile healthcare systems. This protocol is intended to study and document suspected or confirmed cases of nosocomial SARS-CoV2 infection, the clinical spectrum and the determinants (risk factors/protective) at participating hospitals. Methods and analysis: This will be an international multicentre prospective, observational, hospital-based study in adults and children. It will include volunteer patients, care givers and healthcare professionals in France and hospitals affiliated with the GABRIEL network. Demographic and clinical data will be collected using case-report forms designed especially for the purpose of the project. A nasopharyngeal swab will be collected and tested for SARS-CoV2 by RT-PCR. Characteristics of the study participants, the proportion of confirmed nosocomial SARS-CoV2 infections relative to all patients with syndromes suggestive of 2019-nCoV infection will be analysed. Appropriate multivariate modelling will be used to identify the determinants associated with nosocomial onset. Ethics and dissemination: This study was approved by the clinical research and committee of Ile de France V on March 8, 2020. Registration details: The trial was registered in ClinicalTrials (NCT04290780).