query: 1/2000 in UK have abnormal PrP positivity.

positive: Prevalent abnormal prion protein in human appendixes after bovine spongiform encephalopathy epizootic: large scale survey OBJECTIVES To carry out a further survey of archived appendix samples to understand better the differences between existing estimates of the prevalence of subclinical infection with prions after the bovine spongiform encephalopathy epizootic and to see whether a broader birth cohort was affected, and to understand better the implications for the management of blood and blood products and for the handling of surgical instruments. DESIGN Irreversibly unlinked and anonymised large scale survey of archived appendix samples. SETTING Archived appendix samples from the pathology departments of 41 UK hospitals participating in the earlier survey, and additional hospitals in regions with lower levels of participation in that survey. SAMPLE 32,441 archived appendix samples fixed in formalin and embedded in paraffin and tested for the presence of abnormal prion protein (PrP). RESULTS Of the 32,441 appendix samples 16 were positive for abnormal PrP, indicating an overall prevalence of 493 per million population (95% confidence interval 282 to 801 per million). The prevalence in those born in 1941-60 (733 per million, 269 to 1596 per million) did not differ significantly from those born between 1961 and 1985 (412 per million, 198 to 758 per million) and was similar in both sexes and across the three broad geographical areas sampled. Genetic testing of the positive specimens for the genotype at PRNP codon 129 revealed a high proportion that were valine homozygous compared with the frequency in the normal population, and in stark contrast with confirmed clinical cases of vCJD, all of which were methionine homozygous at PRNP codon 129. CONCLUSIONS This study corroborates previous studies and suggests a high prevalence of infection with abnormal PrP, indicating vCJD carrier status in the population compared with the 177 vCJD cases to date. These findings have important implications for the management of blood and blood products and for the handling of surgical instruments.

negative: The sheddase ADAM10 is a potent modulator of prion disease The prion protein (PrP(C)) is highly expressed in the nervous system and critically involved in prion diseases where it misfolds into pathogenic PrP(Sc). Moreover, it has been suggested as a receptor mediating neurotoxicity in common neurodegenerative proteinopathies such as Alzheimer's disease. PrP(C) is shed at the plasma membrane by the metalloprotease ADAM10, yet the impact of this on prion disease remains enigmatic. Employing conditional knockout mice, we show that depletion of ADAM10 in forebrain neurons leads to posttranslational increase of PrP(C) levels. Upon prion infection of these mice, clinical, biochemical, and morphological data reveal that lack of ADAM10 significantly reduces incubation times and increases PrP(Sc) formation. In contrast, spatiotemporal analysis indicates that absence of shedding impairs spread of prion pathology. Our data support a dual role for ADAM10-mediated shedding and highlight the role of proteolytic processing in prion disease.

negative: The effects of prion protein proteolysis and disaggregation on the strain properties of hamster scrapie. Native mammalian prions exist in self-propagating strains that exhibit distinctive clinical, pathological and biochemical characteristics. Prion strain diversity is associated with variations in PrP(Sc) conformation, but it remains unknown precisely which physical properties of the PrP(Sc) molecules are required to encipher mammalian prion strain phenotypes. In this study, we subjected prion-infected brain homogenates derived from three different hamster scrapie strains to either (i) proteinase K digestion or (ii) sonication, and inoculated the modified samples into normal hamsters. The results show that the strain-specific clinical features and neuropathological profiles of inoculated animals were not affected by either treatment. Similarly, the strain-dependent biochemical characteristics of the PrP(Sc) molecules (including electrophoretic mobility, glycoform composition, conformational stability and susceptibility to protease digestion) in infected animals were unaffected by either proteolysis or sonication of the original inocula. These results indicate that the infectious strain properties of native prions do not appear to be altered by PrP(Sc) disaggregation, and that maintenance of such properties does not require the N-domain (approximately residues 23-90) of the protease-resistant PrP(Sc) molecules or protease-sensitive PrP(Sc) molecules.

negative: Prion-induced amyloid heart disease with high blood infectivity in transgenic mice. We investigated extraneural manifestations in scrapie-infected transgenic mice expressing prion protein lacking the glycophosphatydylinositol membrane anchor. In the brain, blood, and heart, both abnormal protease-resistant prion protein (PrPres) and prion infectivity were readily detected by immunoblot and by inoculation into nontransgenic recipients. The titer of infectious scrapie in blood plasma exceeded 10(7) 50% infectious doses per milliliter. The hearts of these transgenic mice contained PrPres-positive amyloid deposits that led to myocardial stiffness and cardiac disease.

negative: Reliability of patient responses in pay for performance schemes: analysis of national General Practitioner Patient Survey data in England OBJECTIVE To assess the robustness of patient responses to a new national survey of patient experience as a basis for providing financial incentives to doctors. DESIGN Analysis of the representativeness of the respondents to the GP Patient Survey compared with those who were sampled (5.5 million patients registered with 8273 general practices in England in January 2009) and with the general population. Analysis of non-response bias looked at the relation between practice response rates and scores on the survey. Analysis of the reliability of the survey estimated the proportion of the variance of practice scores attributable to true differences between practices. RESULTS The overall response rate was 38.2% (2.2 million responses), which is comparable to that in surveys using similar methodology in the UK. Men, young adults, and people living in deprived areas were under-represented among respondents. However, for questions related to pay for performance, there was no systematic association between response rates and questionnaire scores. Two questions which triggered payments to general practitioners were reliable measures of practice performance, with average practice-level reliability coefficients of 93.2% and 95.0%. Less than 3% and 0.5% of practices had fewer than the number of responses required to achieve conventional reliability levels of 90% and 70%. A change to the payment formula in 2009 resulted in an increase in the average impact of random variation in patient scores on payments to general practitioners compared with payments made in 2007 and 2008. CONCLUSIONS There is little evidence to support the concern of some general practitioners that low response rates and selective non-response bias have led to systematic unfairness in payments attached to questionnaire scores. The study raises issues relating to the validity and reliability of payments based on patient surveys and provides lessons for the UK and for other countries considering the use of patient experience as part of pay for performance schemes.

negative: Paediatric HIV infection. By the year 2000 there will be six million pregnant women and five to ten million children infected with HIV-1. Intervention strategies have been planned and in some instances already started. A timely and cost-effective strategy needs to take into account that most HIV-1 infected individuals reside in developing countries. Further studies are needed on immunological and virological factors affecting HIV-1 transmission from mother to child, on differential disease progression in affected children, and on transient infection.

negative: Sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom: analysis of epidemiological surveillance data for 1970-96. OBJECTIVE To identify changes in the occurrence of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease that might be related to the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. DESIGN Epidemiological surveillance of the United Kingdom population for Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease based on (a) referral of suspected cases by neurologists, neuropathologists, and neurophysiologists and (b) death certificates. SETTING England and Wales during 1970-84, and whole of the United Kingdom during 1985-96. SUBJECTS All 662 patients identified as sporadic cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Age distribution of patients, age specific time trends of disease, occupational exposure to cattle, potential exposure to causative agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. RESULTS During 1970-96 there was an increase in the number of sporadic cases of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease recorded yearly in England and Wales. The greatest increase was among people aged over 70. There was a statistically significant excess of cases among dairy farm workers and their spouses and among people at increased risk of contact with live cattle infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy. During 1994-6 there were six deaths from sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom in patients aged under 30. CONCLUSIONS The increase in the incidence of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and the high incidence in dairy farmers in the United Kingdom may be unrelated to bovine spongiform encephalopathy. The most striking change in the pattern of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom after the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy is provided by the incidence in a group of exceptionally young patients with a consistent and unusual neuropathological profile. The outcome of mouse transmission studies and the future incidence of the disease in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, will be important in judging whether the agent causing bovine spongiform encephalopathy has infected humans.

negative: Cross sectional stature and weight reference curves for the UK, 1990. The current reference curves of stature and weight for the UK were first published in 1966 and have been used ever since despite increasing concern that they may not adequately describe the growth of present day British children. Using current data from seven sources new reference curves have been estimated from birth to 20 years for children in 1990. The great majority of the data are nationally representative. The analysis used Cole's LMS method and has produced efficient estimates of the conventional centiles and gives a good fit to the data. These curves differ from the currently used curves at key ages for both stature and weight. In view of the concerns expressed about the current curves and the differences between them and the new curves, it is proposed that the curves presented here should be adopted as the new UK reference curves.

negative: Basal keratinocyte tetrasomy in low-grade squamous intra-epithelial lesions of the cervix is restricted to high and intermediate risk HPV infection but is not type-specific Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection appears to be an early event in cervical carcinogenesis with additional abnormalities being required for biological transformation. We have analysed 179 low-grade cervical squamous intra-epithelial lesions (SILs) and 15 normal cervices for the presence of HPV using both in situ hybridization and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). PCR was performed with GP5+/GP6+ primers followed by hybridization using probes for low (HPV 6, 11, 40, 42, 43, 44), intermediate (HPV 31, 33, 35, 39, 51, 52, 58, 59, 66 and 68) and high-risk HPVs (HPV 16, 18, 45 and 56). Interphase cytogenetic analysis using pericentromeric probes for chromosomes 1, 3, 4, 6, 10, 11, 17, 18 and X was also performed to identify numerical chromosomal abnormalities. Tetrasomy of all nine chromosomes was identified within basal keratinocytes, was restricted to epithelia infected with high risk (17 of 46) or intermediate risk (23 of 83) HPVs but was not HPV type-specific. Tetrasomy was not identified in any of the epithelia infected with low risk HPVs (n = 62). These numbers include multiple infection. These findings indicate that the induction of tetrasomy is a property restricted to high and intermediate-risk HPV types but that it is not type-specific. The factors governing which lesions will develop this abnormality are as yet unclear. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign

negative: Biochemical Properties of Highly Neuroinvasive Prion Strains Infectious prions propagate from peripheral entry sites into the central nervous system (CNS), where they cause progressive neurodegeneration that ultimately leads to death. Yet the pathogenesis of prion disease can vary dramatically depending on the strain, or conformational variant of the aberrantly folded and aggregated protein, PrP(Sc). Although most prion strains invade the CNS, some prion strains cannot gain entry and do not cause clinical signs of disease. The conformational basis for this remarkable variation in the pathogenesis among strains is unclear. Using mouse-adapted prion strains, here we show that highly neuroinvasive prion strains primarily form diffuse aggregates in brain and are noncongophilic, conformationally unstable in denaturing conditions, and lead to rapidly lethal disease. These neuroinvasive strains efficiently generate PrP(Sc) over short incubation periods. In contrast, the weakly neuroinvasive prion strains form large fibrillary plaques and are stable, congophilic, and inefficiently generate PrP(Sc) over long incubation periods. Overall, these results indicate that the most neuroinvasive prion strains are also the least stable, and support the concept that the efficient replication and unstable nature of the most rapidly converting prions may be a feature linked to their efficient spread into the CNS.

negative: Estimating prion concentration in fluids and tissues by quantitative PMCA Prions, the proteinaceous infectious agent responsible for prion diseases, can be detected with high sensitivity by protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) technology. Here we describe a quantitative PMCA procedure to calculate the concentration of very low levels of prions in biological samples. Using this procedure, we determined the quantities of misfolded prion protein (PrPSc) in brain, spleen, blood and urine of scrapie-affected hamsters.

negative: Rapid progression of familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy: a multinational natural history study. OBJECTIVES To assess the association between severity of neuropathy and disease stage, and estimate the rate of neuropathy progression in a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of a multinational population of patients with familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy (FAP). METHODS We characterize neuropathy severity and rate of progression in available patients with FAP in France, the United States, Portugal, and Italy. Neuropathy Impairment Scores (NIS), time from symptom onset to NIS measurement, polyneuropathy disability (PND) scores, FAP disease stage, and manual grip strength data were collected. We estimated neuropathy progression using Loess Fit and Gompertz Fit models. RESULTS For the 283 patients studied (mean age, 56.4 years), intercountry genotypic variation in the transthyretin (TTR) mutation was observed, with the majority of patients in Portugal (92%) having early-onset Val30Met-FAP. There was also marked intercountry variation in PND score, FAP stage, and TTR stabilizer use. NIS was associated with PND score (NIS 10 and 99 for scores I and IV, respectively; p < 0.0001) and FAP stage (NIS 14 and 99 for stages 1 and 3, respectively; p < 0.0001). In addition, there was an association between NIS and TTR genotype. The estimated rate of NIS progression for a population with a median NIS of 32 was 14.3 points/year; the corresponding estimated rate for the modified NIS+7 is 17.8 points/year. CONCLUSIONS In a multinational population of patients with FAP, rapid neuropathic progression is observed and the severity of neuropathy is associated with functional scales of locomotion.

negative: Effect of mammographic screening from age 40 years on breast cancer mortality in the UK Age trial at 17 years' follow-up: a randomised controlled trial. BACKGROUND Age-specific effects of mammographic screening, and the timing of such effects, are a matter of debate. The results of the UK Age trial, which compared the effect of invitation to annual mammographic screening from age 40 years with commencement of screening at age 50 years on breast cancer mortality, have been reported at 10 years of follow-up and showed no significant difference in mortality between the trial groups. Here, we report the results of the UK Age trial after 17 years of follow-up. METHODS Women aged 39-41 from 23 UK NHS Breast Screening Programme units years were randomly assigned by individual randomisation (1:2) to either an intervention group offered annual screening by mammography up to and including the calendar year of their 48th birthday or to a control group receiving usual medical care (invited for screening at age 50 years and every 3 years thereafter). Both groups were stratified by general practice. We compared breast cancer incidence and mortality by time since randomisation. Analyses included all women randomly assigned who could be traced with the National Health Service Central Register and who had not died or emigrated before entry. The primary outcome measures were mortality from breast cancer (defined as deaths with breast cancer coded as the underlying cause of death) and breast cancer incidence, including in-situ, invasive, and total incidence. Because there is an interest in the timing of the mortality effect, we analysed the results in different follow-up periods. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN24647151. FINDINGS Between Oct 14, 1990, and Sept 25, 1997, 160 921 participants were randomly assigned; 53 883 women in the intervention group and 106 953 assigned to usual medical care were included in this analysis. After a median follow-up of 17 years (IQR 16·8-18·8), the rate ratio (RR) for breast cancer mortality was 0·88 (95% CI 0·74-1·04) from tumours diagnosed during the intervention phase. A significant reduction in breast cancer mortality was noted in the intervention group compared with the control group in the first 10 years after diagnosis (RR 0·75, 0·58-0·97) but not thereafter (RR 1·02, 0·80-1·30) from tumours diagnosed during the intervention phase. The overall breast cancer incidence during 17 year follow-up was similar between the intervention group and the control group (RR 0·98, 0·93-1·04). INTERPRETATION Our results support an early reduction in mortality from breast cancer with annual mammography screening in women aged 40-49 years. Further data are needed to fully understand long-term effects. Cumulative incidence figures suggest at worst a small amount of overdiagnosis. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and the American Cancer Society. Past funding was received from the Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, the UK Department of Health, and the US National Cancer Institute.

negative: A feasibility study for a randomised controlled trial of the Positive Reappraisal Coping Intervention, a novel supportive technique for recurrent miscarriage INTRODUCTION Recurrent miscarriage (RM) is diagnosed when a woman has had three or more miscarriages. Increased levels of distress and anxiety are common during the waiting period of any subsequent pregnancies, posing a significant threat to psychological well-being. However, only limited support and therapy are available for these women, and many are left to cope alone. The Positive Reappraisal Coping Intervention (PRCI) is a novel self-administered supportive technique which has been shown to be effective in patients awaiting the outcome of in vitro fertilisation treatment. The primary objective of this study is to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of the PRCI in improving quality of life in the difficult waiting period which women with previous RM endure before an ongoing pregnancy can be confirmed. METHODS AND ANALYSIS A randomised controlled trial (RCT) feasibility study will establish the viability of conducting a multicentre RCT to definitively test the effects of the PRCI on the psychological well-being of women who have experienced RM during the initial waiting period of a subsequent pregnancy. A second component consists of a qualitative process evaluation exploring the initial experience of pregnancy following repeated miscarriages. Participants (n=50) will be randomised into one of two groups. The PRCI intervention group will receive the PRCI card and weekly questionnaires to assess their psychological well-being during the waiting period of their new pregnancy. The non-intervention group will be asked to complete the same weekly questionnaires. The qualitative process analysis will employ semistructured interviews (n=20) to address relevant aspects of the study objectives. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION Ethics approval has been obtained from the National Research Ethics Service Committee South Central-Hampshire A. Participating centres have given National Health Service R&D approval. Study findings will be disseminated through peer reviewed journals, national and international conferences and lay user groups. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER ISRCTN43571276. This study was registered with the ISRCTN 18/02/2014 following adoption onto the United Kingdom Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) portfolio. Recruitment of the first participant occurred 04/02/2014.

negative: Long-term follow-up of cervical disease in women screened by cytology and HPV testing: results from the HART study BACKGROUND Several studies have shown that testing for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types results in an improved sensitivity for CIN2+, compared with cytology, although with a somewhat lower specificity. METHODS We obtained follow-up results, with at least one smear after participation in the HART study, which compared HPV testing (HC-II) with cytology as a primary screening modality. RESULTS With a median follow-up of 6 years, 42 additional cases of CIN2+ were identified; women who were HPV positive at baseline were more likely to develop CIN2+ than those who were HPV negative (hazard ratio (HR) 17.2; 95% confidence interval (CI) (9.3-31.6)) and the risk increased with increasing viral load. Compared with HPV-negative women (relative light unit (RLU) <1), the HR (95% CI) was 5.4 (1.6, 18.2) for 1-10 RLU and 25.5 (13.6, 47.9) for RLU > or = 10. Positive cytology (borderline or worse compared with negative) was also predictive of developing CIN2, although to a lesser extent (HR 8.7; 95% CI (4.5-17.1)). Only one case of CIN3 and three cases of CIN2 were found in women who showed a positive cytology result but were HPV negative at baseline. CONCLUSION After 5 years of follow-up, CIN2+ occurred in 0.23% of women who were HPV negative at baseline compared with 0.48% of women who showed a negative cytology result, indicating a much longer low-risk interval for CIN2+ after HPV testing.

negative: Grass plants bind, retain, uptake, and transport infectious prions. Prions are the protein-based infectious agents responsible for prion diseases. Environmental prion contamination has been implicated in disease transmission. Here, we analyzed the binding and retention of infectious prion protein (PrP(Sc)) to plants. Small quantities of PrP(Sc) contained in diluted brain homogenate or in excretory materials (urine and feces) can bind to wheat grass roots and leaves. Wild-type hamsters were efficiently infected by ingestion of prion-contaminated plants. The prion-plant interaction occurs with prions from diverse origins, including chronic wasting disease. Furthermore, leaves contaminated by spraying with a prion-containing preparation retained PrP(Sc) for several weeks in the living plant. Finally, plants can uptake prions from contaminated soil and transport them to aerial parts of the plant (stem and leaves). These findings demonstrate that plants can efficiently bind infectious prions and act as carriers of infectivity, suggesting a possible role of environmental prion contamination in the horizontal transmission of the disease.

negative: Variants at 6q21 implicate PRDM1 in the etiology of therapy-induced second malignancies after Hodgkin's lymphoma Survivors of pediatric Hodgkin's lymphoma are at risk for radiation therapy–induced second malignant neoplasms (SMNs). We identified two variants at chromosome 6q21 associated with SMNs in survivors of Hodgkin's lymphoma treated with radiation therapy as children but not as adults. The variants comprise a risk locus associated with decreased basal expression of PRDM1 (encoding PR domain containing 1, with ZNF domain) and impaired induction of the PRDM1 protein after radiation exposure. These data suggest a new gene-exposure interaction that may implicate PRDM1 in the etiology of radiation therapy-induced SMNs.

negative: Evaluation of the association between the first observation and the longitudinal change in C-reactive protein, and all-cause mortality. OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between vascular inflammation as measured by subacute C-reactive protein (CRP; 1-10 mg/l) and all-cause mortality and the association between change in CRP status (normal <or=3 mg/l and elevated >3 mg/l) and all-cause mortality. METHODS Probabilistic record linkage was used to match hospital episode data, laboratory reports and mortality statistics in a large urban population. Survival was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS 22 962 patients had their first CRP measurement in the subacute range (1-10 mg/l). Analysis grouped by each additional unit increase in CRP across the subacute range was associated with a 7.3% (95% CI 5.4% to 9.2%) increase in the hazard ratio (HR) of death over 4 years, after controlling for confounding factors (p<0.001). Repeated CRP observations around 1 year apart were recorded in 5811 subjects. After controlling for confounding factors, in patients whose CRP changed from normal (<or=3 mg/l) to elevated (>3 mg/l), the HR increased 6.7-fold (p<0.001) relative to cases whose CRP remained normal. By comparison, among those subjects whose CRP was reduced from elevated to normal, the hazard ratio halved to 3.5 (p = 0.018). In an underpowered analysis of time to cardiovascular events, an identical pattern of risk emerged. CONCLUSIONS CRP level predicted all-cause mortality, and additional inclusion of prior change in CRP level and current CRP level more so. Increasing vascular inflammation, as measured by CRP, increases the likelihood of death.

negative: Long-term effects of continuing adjuvant tamoxifen to 10 years versus stopping at 5 years after diagnosis of oestrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: ATLAS, a randomised trial BACKGROUND For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years. METHODS In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12,894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633. FINDINGS Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12,894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%). INTERPRETATION For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis. FUNDING Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

negative: Do Antidepressants Cure or Create Abnormal Brain States? The term antidepressant refers to a drug that helps to rectify specific biological abnormalities that give rise to the symptoms of depression. This exemplifies what we have called the “disease-centred” model of psychotropic drug action [ 1]. Modelled on paradigmatic situations in general medicine—such as the use of insulin in diabetes, antibiotics in infectious disease, chemotherapy in cancer—the disease-centred model suggests that antidepressants help restore normal functioning by acting on the neuropathology of depression or of depressive symptoms. In contrast, we propose in this Essay that an alternative “drug-centred” model can better explain observed drug effects in psychiatric conditions. This drug-centred model suggests that instead of relieving a hypothetical biochemical abnormality, drugs themselves cause abnormal states, which may coincidentally relieve psychiatric symptoms ( Table 1). Alcohol's disinhibiting effects may relieve symptoms of social phobia, but that does not imply that alcohol corrects a chemical imbalance underlying social phobia. Sedation may lessen high arousal, present in many acute psychiatric situations. Drugs that induce indifference, such as neuroleptics or opiates, may help reduce the distress of acute psychotic symptoms. Low-dose stimulants may help improve attention and concentration in the short term. Table 1    Main Assumptions of Two Models of Psychotropic Drug Action The disease-centred model in psychiatry leads researchers to infer antidepressant effects from patients' scores on symptom rating scales presumed to assess the manifestations of the disease. The drug-centred model, on the other hand, suggests that physiological and subjective effects of drugs should be examined in their own right. These effects include various forms of sedation, stimulation, and a plethora of biopsychological states. Depending on individual inclination and context (including a person's emotional state upon drug ingestion), intoxication with some drugs produces euphoria or mood elevation. Because tolerance develops, however, euphoriant effects do not persist with long-term use. If antidepressants or any other psychotropic drugs could be shown to have mood-elevating effects that were long-term and not diminished by being in a depressed emotional state, this would distinguish them from psychotropic drugs that cause euphoria and might prove uniquely useful in depressed patients (see Sidebar).

negative: Summary The genetic diseases Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome (HGPS) and restrictive dermopathy (RD) arise from accumulation of farnesylated prelamin A because of defects in the lamin A maturation pathway. Both of these diseases exhibit symptoms that can be viewed as accelerated aging. The mechanism by which accumulation of farnesylated prelamin A leads to these accelerated aging phenotypes is not understood. Here we present evidence that in HGPS and RD fibroblasts, DNA damage checkpoints are persistently activated because of the compromise in genomic integrity. Inactivation of checkpoint kinases Ataxia-telangiectasia-mutated (ATM) and ATR (ATM- and Rad3-related) in these patient cells can partially overcome their early replication arrest. Treatment of patient cells with a protein farnesyltransferase inhibitor (FTI) did not result in reduction of DNA double-strand breaks and damage checkpoint signaling, although the treatment significantly reversed the aberrant shape of their nuclei. This suggests that DNA damage accumulation and aberrant nuclear morphology are independent phenotypes arising from prelamin A accumulation in these progeroid syndromes. Since DNA damage accumulation is an important contributor to the symptoms of HGPS, our results call into question the possibility of treatment of HGPS with FTIs alone.

negative: A new look at the heart in diabetes mellitus: from ailing to failing This review discusses some of the mechanisms inherent in diabetes that predispose patients to increased cardiac morbidity and mortality. Single photon emission computerized tomography or photon emission tomography with radioactive labeled analogues of norepinephrine have shown that cardiac sympathetic dysfunction and incompetence are early and also late abnormalities in patients with Type I (insulin-dependent) and Type II (non-insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus. Furthermore, myocardial blood flow assessment with photon emission tomography has shown that in patients without myocardial perfusion deficits, endothelial-dependent vasodilatation is severely reduced in relation to cardiac sympathetic dysfunction. In addition, signs of endothelial activation have also been found early in patients with Type I and Type II diabetes in whom vascular disease has not been clinically detected. This activation in conjunction with glycaemic control is important in determining macrovascular mortality. Cardiac sympathetic dysfunction is partially restored to normal with near normalisation of glycaemia. Interpretations. Recently unrecognized “subtle” changes predispose the heart to failure, after ischaemia-induced remodelling, and arteriosclerotic plaques to instability and rupture. These changes act in conjunction with effects, driven by hyperglycaemia and diabetes, on the endothelium of large blood vessels, e. g. on nitric oxide release or on protein kinase-C β activation. Meticulous glucose control early on and rapid recompensation of hyperglycaemia in patients with acute coronary syndrome are part of a successful intensive multifactorial approach to prevent the heart in diabetes converting from ailing to failing. [Diabetologia (2000) 43: 1455–1469]

negative: Multiple risk behaviour: increasing socio-economic gap over time? BACKGROUND Unhealthy behaviours often occur in combination. In this study the relationship between education and lifestyle, defined as a cluster of risk behaviours, has been analysed with the purpose to assess socio-economic changes in multiple risk behaviour over time. METHODS Cross-sectional data from the Belgian Health Interview Surveys 1997, 2001 and 2004 were analysed. This study is restricted to persons aged ≥ 15 years with information on those health behaviours and education (n = 7431, n = 8142 and n = 7459, respectively). A lifestyle index was created based on the sum of the four unhealthy behaviours: smokers vs. non-smokers, risky versus non-risky alcohol use, sedentaryness vs. physically active and poor vs. healthy diet. The lifestyle index was dichotomized as low (0-2) vs. high (3-4). For the assessment of socio-economic inequalities in multiple risk behaviour, summary measures as Odds Ratio (OR) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated using logistic regression, stratified by sex. RESULTS Of the adult population, 7.5% combined three to four unhealthy behaviours. Lower educated men are the most at risk. Besides, the OR among men significantly increased from 1.6 in 2001 to 3.4 in 2004 (P = 0.029). The increase of the OR among women was less pronounced. The RII, on the other hand, did not show any gradient, neither for men nor for women. CONCLUSION Multiple risk behaviour is more common among lower educated people. An increasing polarization in socio-economic inequalities is assessed from 2001 to 2004 among men. Therefore, health promotion programmes should focus on the lower socio-economic classes and target risk behaviours simultaneously.

negative: Molecular characterization of endometrial cancer: a correlative study assessing microsatellite instability, MLH1 hypermethylation, DNA mismatch repair protein expression, and PTEN, PIK3CA, KRAS, and BRAF mutation analysis. Endometrial cancer is associated with numeric and structural chromosomal abnormalities, microsatellite instability (MSI), and alterations that activate oncogenes and inactivate tumor suppressor genes. The aim of this study was to characterize a set of endometrial cancers using multiple molecular genetic and immunohistochemical techniques. Ninety-six cases were examined for genomic alterations by MSI, MLH1 promoter hypermethylation, p53 and mismatch repair protein expression (MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, PMS2), and PTEN, PIK3CA, KRAS, and BRAF mutation analysis. At least 1 alteration was identified in 48 of 87 (55%) specimens tested for PTEN, making it the most common abnormality in this study. A PIK3CA alteration was observed in 16 (17%) specimens. Twenty-nine of 94 (31%) MSI tested tumors exhibited an MSI-H phenotype. Of the 29 MSI-H cases, 24 (83%) were positive for methylation of the MLH1 promoter region. Twenty-three (82%) of the 28 MSI-H cases with immunohistochemistry results showed loss of expression of MLH1/PMS2 (n=19), MSH2/MSH6 (n=2), or MSH6 only (n=2). Of the 19 MSI-H cases with loss of MLH1/PMS2 on immunohistochemistry, 18 were positive, and 1 was equivocal for MLH1 promoter hypermethylation. Twelve of 94 cases (13%) analyzed for KRAS mutations were found to have a mutation. No BRAF V600E mutations were indentified. This study provides a comprehensive molecular genetic analysis of commonly analyzed targets in a large cohort of endometrial cancers.

negative: Evaluation of human papillomavirus testing in primary screening for cervical abnormalities: comparison of sensitivity, specificity, and frequency of referral. CONTEXT Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing of women having Papanicolaou (Pap) smears showing atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) has clinical usefulness. Whether HPV DNA testing alone is useful in primary screening remains to be determined. OBJECTIVE To determine the accuracy of HPV DNA testing for detecting cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cancer (the criterion standard). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Between December 1997 and October 2000, 4075 women who attended Planned Parenthood clinics in Washington State were screened simultaneously using thin-layer Pap and HPV DNA testing by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based method and by a liquid-based RNA-DNA hybridization capture with signal amplification assay (signal amplification). Women who were positive for high-risk HPV types, or had Pap results of ASCUS or higher, were considered to have positive screening test results and were referred for colposcopy and biopsy. Additionally, a random sample of women with negative screening test results was referred for colposcopy. Based on individual and combined thin-layer Pap, HPV PCR, and HPV signal amplification test results from the screening and the colposcopy visits, 7 colposcopy triage strategies were defined and evaluated. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE Sensitivity and specificity for detecting cervical lesions graded CIN 3 or higher for each of the 7 triage strategies. RESULTS The estimated prevalence of CIN 3 or higher was 3.2%. The sensitivity (95% confidence interval) of thin-layer Pap (with a result of > or = ASCUS) for identifying women with CIN 3 or higher was only 61.3% (48.5%-70.9%) compared with 88.2% (78.9%-93.8%) for HPV testing by PCR and 90.8% (83.1%-95.8%) by signal amplification. Differences in specificities were also observed: 82.4% (81.8%-83.1%) for thin-layer Pap (with a result of > or = ASCUS), 78.8% (77.9%-79.7%) for PCR, and 72.6% (69.4%-75.0%) for signal amplification. Compared with referral for colposcopy of all women with ASCUS or higher, signal amplification testing of women with ASCUS and referral of those with a positive result was about as sensitive (61.3% vs 60.3%, respectively) and significantly more specific (82.4% vs 88.9%, respectively). The strategy requiring repeat positive PCR tests on 2 visits had a sensitivity of 84.2% (75.3%-91.0%) and a specificity of 86.2% (85.1%-87.3%). All tests were more specific and less sensitive in older (> or = 30 years) vs younger women. CONCLUSIONS Testing for HPV has higher sensitivity but lower specificity than thin-layer Pap screening. In some settings, particularly where screening intervals are long or haphazard, screening for HPV DNA may be a reasonable alternative to cytology-based screening of reproductive-age women.

negative: The S-LANSS score for identifying pain of predominantly neuropathic origin: validation for use in clinical and postal research. This article describes the development and validation of the S-LANSS score, a self-report version of the Leeds Assessment of Neuropathic Symptoms and Signs pain scale. The S-LANSS aims to identify pain of predominantly neuropathic origin, as distinct from nociceptive pain, without the need for clinical examination. Two hundred patients with chronic pain were asked to complete the S-LANSS unaided. A researcher then administered the S-LANSS scale and the Neuropathic Pain Scale (NPS) in interview format. An independent clinician determined the pain type (neuropathic versus nociceptive) and rated his or her certainty about diagnosis. The S-LANSS scale was also incorporated into a chronic pain questionnaire that was sent to 160 community patients and 150 newly referred patients waiting for pain clinic assessment. The S-LANSS scale correctly identified 75% of pain types when self-completed and 80% when used in interview format. Sensitivity for self-completed S-LANSS scores ranged from 74% to 78%, depending on the cutoff score. There were significant associations between NPS items and total score with S-LANSS score. In the postal survey, completed questionnaires were returned by 57% of patients (n = 174). Internal consistency and convergent validity of the survey S-LANSS scores were confirmed. The findings support the S-LANSS scale as a valid and reliable self-report instrument for identifying neuropathic pain and it is also acceptable for use in postal survey research. Establishing valid measures of symptoms and signs in neuropathic pain will allow standardized comparisons with other investigational measures. This might lead to new insights into the relationship between pathophysiologic mechanisms and clinical manifestations of pain.

negative: The prognostic impact of the platelet distribution width-to-platelet count ratio in patients with breast cancer Activated platelets promote tumor cell growth, angiogenesis, and invasion. Platelet activity can be inferred by platelet volume indices (PVIs), which include platelet distribution width (PDW), mean platelet volume (MPV), platelet distribution width-to-platelet count ratio (PDW/P), and mean platelet volume-to-platelet count ratio. Platelets and platelet-related markers, such as the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, have been found to be significant prognostic factors in patients with breast cancer. However, the role of PVIs for predicting survival in breast cancer remains unknown; hence, we performed this retrospective analysis of 275 patients with breast cancer. PVIs were compared with clinicopathological variables, and were assessed to identify independent indicators associated with disease-free survival (DFS) using the Cox proportional hazards model. An elevated PDW/P significantly correlated with age and HER2 status. Univariate analysis revealed that elevated PDW, MPV, and PDW/P as well as tumor size, nuclear grade, and lymph node involvement were significantly associated with inferior DFS rates (tumor size: p<0.01; nuclear grade, lymph node involvement, PDW, MPV, and PDW/P: p<0.05). On multivariate analysis, a large tumor size and elevated PDW/P were significant prognostic factors for DFS, with hazard ratios of 3.24 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24-8.47) and 2.99 (95% CI: 1.18-7.57), respectively (p<0.05). Our study is the first to reveal that an elevated PDW/P significantly reduces DFS in patients with breast carcinoma. Measuring the PDW/P is simple, relatively inexpensive, and almost universally available using routine blood counts; this makes it an attractive biomarker for improved risk assessment.

negative: Clinicopathological and prognostic significance of Bmi-1 expression in human cervical cancer. OBJECTIVE To investigate the clinical significance of Bmi-1 expression as a prognostic marker for cervical cancer. Design. Retrospectively collected data from a population-based cohort. SETTING Jiangsu Province Hospital. Population. Eighty-eight women diagnosed with cervical carcinoma between 2000 and 2003. METHODS RT-PCR assay was performed to determine Bmi-1 mRNA expression in 18 cervical cancer and noncancerous tissue samples and immunohistochemistry to detect Bmi-1 protein expression in 88 cervical cancer samples. The correlation between Bmi-1 expression and clinicopathological factors was analyzed. Additionally, statistical analyses were applied to test for prognostic associations. RNA interference was used to downregulate Bmi-1 expression in a cervical cancer cell line (HeLa). In vitro cytotoxicity was measured by the methylthiazoletetrazolium and colony formation assays. Effects of Bmi-1 inhibition on in vivo growth of cancer cells was detected by the tumorigenicity assay. Cell cycle distribution and cell apoptosis were measured by flow cytometry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The levels of Bmi-1 mRNA and protein expression in tissues were evaluated by RT-PCR and Western Blot assays. RESULTS The level of Bmi-1 mRNA expression in cervical cancer tissues was significantly higher than that in corresponding noncancerous tissues. High Bmi-1 expression was significantly correlated with poor tumor differentiation, advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage and positive lymph node metastasis. Patients with high Bmi-1 expression showed shorter overall survival than those with low expression. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that high Bmi-1 expression was an independent prognostic factor. CONCLUSIONS RNA interference-mediated Bmi-1 inhibition could inhibit in vitro and in vivo growth, enhance apoptosis and induce cell cycle arrest of cervical cancer cells. Bmi-1 might be an independent prognostic marker for cervical cancer patients.

negative: Treated individuals who progress to action or maintenance for one behavior are more likely to make similar progress on another behavior: coaction results of a pooled data analysis of three trials. OBJECTIVE This study compared, in treatment and control groups, the phenomena of coaction, which is the probability that taking effective action on one behavior is related to taking effective action on a second behavior. METHODS Pooled data from three randomized trials of Transtheoretical Model (TTM) tailored interventions (n=9461), completed in the U.S. in 1999, were analyzed to assess coaction in three behavior pairs (diet and sun protection, diet and smoking, and sun protection and smoking). Odds ratios (ORs) compared the likelihood of taking action on a second behavior compared to taking action on only one behavior. RESULTS Across behavior pairs, at 12 and 24 months, the ORs for the treatment group were greater on an absolute basis than for the control group, with two being significant. The combined ORs at 12 and 24 months, respectively, were 1.63 and 1.85 for treatment and 1.20 and 1.10 for control. CONCLUSIONS The results of this study with addictive, energy balance and appearance-related behaviors were consistent with results found in three studies applying TTM tailoring to energy balance behaviors. Across studies, there was more coaction within the treatment group. Future research should identify predictors of coaction in more multiple behavior change interventions.

negative: Gene–environment interactions in 7610 women with breast cancer: prospective evidence from the Million Women Study BACKGROUND Information is scarce about the combined effects on breast cancer incidence of low-penetrance genetic susceptibility polymorphisms and environmental factors (reproductive, behavioural, and anthropometric risk factors for breast cancer). To test for evidence of gene-environment interactions, we compared genotypic relative risks for breast cancer across the other risk factors in a large UK prospective study. METHODS We tested gene-environment interactions in 7610 women who developed breast cancer and 10 196 controls without the disease, studying the effects of 12 polymorphisms (FGFR2-rs2981582, TNRC9-rs3803662, 2q35-rs13387042, MAP3K1-rs889312, 8q24-rs13281615, 2p-rs4666451, 5p12-rs981782, CASP8-rs1045485, LSP1-rs3817198, 5q-rs30099, TGFB1-rs1982073, and ATM-rs1800054) in relation to prospectively collected information about ten established environmental risk factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first birth, breastfeeding, menopausal status, age at menopause, use of hormone replacement therapy, body-mass index, height, and alcohol consumption). FINDINGS After allowance for multiple testing none of the 120 comparisons yielded significant evidence of a gene-environment interaction. By contrast with previous suggestions, there was little evidence that the genotypic relative risks were affected by use of hormone replacement therapy, either overall or for oestrogen-receptor-positive disease. Only one of the 12 polymorphisms was correlated with any of the ten other risk factors: carriers of the high-risk C allele of MAP3K1-rs889312 were significantly shorter than non-carriers (mean height 162.4 cm [95% CI 162.1-162.7] vs 163.1 cm [162.9-163.2]; p=0.01 after allowance for multiple testing). INTERPRETATION Risks of breast cancer associated with low-penetrance susceptibility polymorphisms do not vary significantly with these ten established environmental risk factors. FUNDING Cancer Research UK and the UK Medical Research Council.

negative: Effectiveness of thigh-length graduated compression stockings to reduce the risk of deep vein thrombosis after stroke (CLOTS trial 1): a multicentre, randomised controlled trial BACKGROUND Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism are common after stroke. In small trials of patients undergoing surgery, graduated compression stockings (GCS) reduce the risk of DVT. National stroke guidelines extrapolating from these trials recommend their use in patients with stroke despite insufficient evidence. We assessed the effectiveness of thigh-length GCS to reduce DVT after stroke. METHODS In this outcome-blinded, randomised controlled trial, 2518 patients who were admitted to hospital within 1 week of an acute stroke and who were immobile were enrolled from 64 centres in the UK, Italy, and Australia. Patients were allocated via a central randomisation system to routine care plus thigh-length GCS (n=1256) or to routine care plus avoidance of GCS (n=1262). A technician who was blinded to treatment allocation undertook compression Doppler ultrasound of both legs at about 7-10 days and, when practical, again at 25-30 days after enrolment. The primary outcome was the occurrence of symptomatic or asymptomatic DVT in the popliteal or femoral veins. Analyses were by intention to treat. This study is registered, number ISRCTN28163533. FINDINGS All patients were included in the analyses. The primary outcome occurred in 126 (10.0%) patients allocated to thigh-length GCS and in 133 (10.5%) allocated to avoid GCS, resulting in a non-significant absolute reduction in risk of 0.5% (95% CI -1.9% to 2.9%). Skin breaks, ulcers, blisters, and skin necrosis were significantly more common in patients allocated to GCS than in those allocated to avoid their use (64 [5%] vs 16 [1%]; odds ratio 4.18, 95% CI 2.40-7.27). INTERPRETATION These data do not lend support to the use of thigh-length GCS in patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke. National guidelines for stroke might need to be revised on the basis of these results. FUNDING Medical Research Council (UK), Chief Scientist Office of Scottish Government, Chest Heart and Stroke Scotland, Tyco Healthcare (Covidien) USA, and UK Stroke Research Network.

negative: Body-mass index and risk of 22 specific cancers: a population-based cohort study of 5·24 million UK adults BACKGROUND High body-mass index (BMI) predisposes to several site-specific cancers, but a large-scale systematic and detailed characterisation of patterns of risk across all common cancers adjusted for potential confounders has not previously been undertaken. We aimed to investigate the links between BMI and the most common site-specific cancers. METHODS With primary care data from individuals in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with BMI data, we fitted Cox models to investigate associations between BMI and 22 of the most common cancers, adjusting for potential confounders. We fitted linear then non-linear (spline) models; investigated effect modification by sex, menopausal status, smoking, and age; and calculated population effects. FINDINGS 5·24 million individuals were included; 166,955 developed cancers of interest. BMI was associated with 17 of 22 cancers, but effects varied substantially by site. Each 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI was roughly linearly associated with cancers of the uterus (hazard ratio [HR] 1·62, 99% CI 1·56-1·69; p<0·0001), gallbladder (1·31, 1·12-1·52; p<0·0001), kidney (1·25, 1·17-1·33; p<0·0001), cervix (1·10, 1·03-1·17; p=0·00035), thyroid (1·09, 1·00-1·19; p=0·0088), and leukaemia (1·09, 1·05-1·13; p≤0·0001). BMI was positively associated with liver (1·19, 1·12-1·27), colon (1·10, 1·07-1·13), ovarian (1·09, 1.04-1.14), and postmenopausal breast cancers (1·05, 1·03-1·07) overall (all p<0·0001), but these effects varied by underlying BMI or individual-level characteristics. We estimated inverse associations with prostate and premenopausal breast cancer risk, both overall (prostate 0·98, 0·95-1·00; premenopausal breast cancer 0·89, 0·86-0·92) and in never-smokers (prostate 0·96, 0·93-0·99; premenopausal breast cancer 0·89, 0·85-0·94). By contrast, for lung and oral cavity cancer, we observed no association in never smokers (lung 0·99, 0·93-1·05; oral cavity 1·07, 0·91-1·26): inverse associations overall were driven by current smokers and ex-smokers, probably because of residual confounding by smoking amount. Assuming causality, 41% of uterine and 10% or more of gallbladder, kidney, liver, and colon cancers could be attributable to excess weight. We estimated that a 1 kg/m(2) population-wide increase in BMI would result in 3790 additional annual UK patients developing one of the ten cancers positively associated with BMI. INTERPRETATION BMI is associated with cancer risk, with substantial population-level effects. The heterogeneity in the effects suggests that different mechanisms are associated with different cancer sites and different patient subgroups. FUNDING National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Medical Research Council.

negative: The feasibility of malaria elimination in South Africa BACKGROUND Following the last major malaria epidemic in 2000, malaria incidence in South Africa has declined markedly. The decrease has been so emphatic that South Africa now meets the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for malaria elimination. Given the Millennium Development Goal of reversing the spread of malaria by 2015, South Africa is being urged to adopt an elimination agenda. This study aimed to determine the appropriateness of implementing a malaria elimination programme in present day South Africa. METHODS An assessment of the progress made by South Africa in terms of implementing an integrated malaria control programme across the three malaria-endemic provinces was undertaken. Vector control and case management data were analysed from the period of 2000 until 2011. RESULTS Both malaria-related morbidity and mortality have decreased significantly across all three malaria-endemic provinces since 2000. The greatest decline was seen in KwaZulu-Natal where cases decreased from 42,276 in 2000 to 380 in 2010 and deaths dropped from 122 in 2000 to six in 2010. Although there has been a 49.2 % (8,553 vs 4,214) decrease in the malaria cases reported in Limpopo Province, currently it is the largest contributor to the malaria incidence in South Africa. Despite all three provinces reporting average insecticide spray coverage of over 80%, malaria incidence in both Mpumalanga and Limpopo remains above the elimination threshold. Locally transmitted case numbers have declined in all three malaria provinces but imported case numbers have been increasing. Knowledge gaps in vector distribution, insecticide resistance status and drug usage were also identified. CONCLUSIONS Malaria elimination in South Africa is a realistic possibility if certain criteria are met. Firstly, there must be continued support for the existing malaria control programmes to ensure the gains made are sustained. Secondly, cross border malaria control initiatives with neighbouring countries must be strongly encouraged and supported to reduce malaria in the region and the importation of malaria into South Africa. Thirdly, operational research, particularly on vector distribution and insecticide resistance status must be conducted as a matter of urgency, and finally, the surveillance systems must be refined to ensure the information required to inform an elimination agenda are routinely collected.