query: how does the coronavirus respond to changes in the weather

positive: Association between climate variables and global transmission oF SARS-CoV-2 Abstract In this study, we aimed at analyzing the associations between transmission of and deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 and meteorological variables, such as average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation. Two outcome measures were considered, with the first aiming to study SARS-CoV-2 infections and the second aiming to study COVID-19 mortality. Daily data as well as data on SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 mortality obtained between December 1, 2019 and March 28, 2020 were collected from weather stations around the world. The country's population density and time of exposure to the disease were used as control variables. Finally, a month dummy variable was added. Daily data by country were analyzed using the panel data model. An increase in the average daily temperature by one degree Fahrenheit reduced the number of cases by approximately 6.4 cases/day. There was a negative correlation between the average temperature per country and the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections. This association remained strong even with the incorporation of additional variables and controls (maximum temperature, average temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and fixed country effects. There was a positive correlation between precipitation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Countries with higher rainfall measurements showed an increase in disease transmission. For each average inch/day, there was an increase of 56.01 cases/day. COVID-19 mortality showed no significant association with temperature.

positive: Effective transmission across the globe: the role of climate in COVID-19 mitigation strategies

positive: Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics (1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients.

positive: Effect of Environmental Conditions on SARS-CoV-2 Stability in Human Nasal Mucus and Sputum We found that environmental conditions affect the stability of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in nasal mucus and sputum. The virus is more stable at low-temperature and low-humidity conditions, whereas warmer temperature and higher humidity shortened half-life. Although infectious virus was undetectable after 48 hours, viral RNA remained detectable for 7 days.

positive: Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic could have been favored by specific weather conditions and other factors. It is found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China)-where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to February 2020-was strikingly similar to that of the Northern Italian provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo, where the pandemic broke out from February to March. The statistical analysis was extended to cover the United States of America, which overtook Italy and China as the country with the highest number of confirmed COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) cases, and then to the entire world. The found correlation patterns suggest that the COVID-19 lethality significantly worsens (4 times on average) under weather temperatures between 4 ∘ C and 12 ∘ C and relative humidity between 60% and 80%. Possible co-factors such as median population age and air pollution were also investigated suggesting an important influence of the former but not of the latter, at least, on a synoptic scale. Based on these results, specific isotherm world maps were generated to locate, month by month, the world regions that share similar temperature ranges. From February to March, the 4-12 ∘ C isotherm zone extended mostly from Central China toward Iran, Turkey, West-Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain and France) up to the United State of America, optimally coinciding with the geographic regions most affected by the pandemic from February to March. It is predicted that in the spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America) while the situation will likely improve in the southern regions (Italy and Spain). However, in autumn, the pandemic could come back and affect the same regions again. The Tropical Zone and the entire Southern Hemisphere, but in restricted colder southern regions, could avoid a strong pandemic because of the sufficiently warm weather during the entire year and because of the lower median age of their population. Google-Earth-Pro interactive-maps covering the entire world are provided as supplementary files.

positive: The Challenge of Using Epidemiological Case Count Data: The Example of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and the Weather The publicly available data on COVID-19 cases provides an opportunity to better understand this new disease. However, strong attention needs to be paid to the limitations of the data to avoid making inaccurate conclusions. This article, which focuses on the relationship between the weather and COVID-19, raises the concern that the same factors influencing the spread of the disease might also affect the number of tests performed and who gets tested. For example, weather conditions impact the prevalence of respiratory diseases with symptoms similar to COVID-19, and this will likely influence the number of tests performed. This general limitation could severely undermine any similar analysis using existing COVID-19 data or similar epidemiological data, which could, therefore, mislead decision-makers on questions of great policy relevance.

positive: Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion, with the number of cases N reasonably well fit by N eαt, in many countries. We analyze the rate α in different countries, choosing as a starting point in each country the first day with 30 cases and fitting for the following 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth in a rather homogeneous way. We look for a link between the rate α and the average temperature T of each country, in the month of the epidemic growth. We analyze a {\it base} set of 42 countries, which developed the epidemic at an earlier stage, an {\it intermediate} set of 88 countries and an {\it extended} set of 125 countries, which developed the epidemic more recently. Fitting with a linear behavior α(T), we find increasing evidence in the three datasets for a decreasing growth rate as a function of T, at $99.66\%$C.L., $99.86\%$C.L. and $99.99995 \%$ C.L. ($p$-value $5 \cdot 10^{-7}$, or 5$\sigma$ detection) in the {\it base}, {\it intermediate} and {\it extended} dataset, respectively. The doubling time is expected to increase by $40\%\sim 50\%$, going from $5^\circ$ C to $25^\circ$ C. In the {\it base} set, going beyond a linear model, a peak at about $(7.7\pm 3.6)^\circ C$ seems to be present in the data, but such evidence disappears for the larger datasets. Moreover we have analyzed the possible existence of a bias: poor countries, typically located in warm regions, might have less intense testing. By excluding countries below a given GDP per capita from the dataset, we find that this affects our conclusions only slightly and only for the {\it extended} dataset. The significance always remains high, with a $p$-value of about $10^{-3}-10^{-4}$ or less. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general the propagation should be hopefully stopped by strong lockdown, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the next cold season.

positive: The complex associations of climate variability with seasonal influenza A and B virus transmission in subtropical Shanghai, China Abstract Most previous studies focused on the association between climate variables and seasonal influenza activity in tropical or temperate zones, little is known about the associations in different influenza types in subtropical China. The study aimed to explore the associations of multiple climate variables with influenza A (Flu-A) and B virus (Flu-B) transmissions in Shanghai, China. Weekly influenza virus and climate data (mean temperature (MeanT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), relative humidity (RH) and wind velocity (Wv)) were collected between June 2012 and December 2018. Generalized linear models (GLMs), distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) and regression tree models were developed to assess such associations. MeanT exerted the peaking risk of Flu-A at 1.4 °C (2-weeks’ cumulative relative risk (RR): 14.88, 95% confidence interval (CI): 8.67–23.31) and 25.8 °C (RR: 12.21, 95%CI: 6.64–19.83), Flu-B had the peak at 1.4 °C (RR: 26.44, 95%CI: 11.52–51.86). The highest RR of Flu-A was 23.05 (95%CI: 5.12–88.45) at DTR of 15.8 °C, that of Flu-B was 38.25 (95%CI: 15.82–87.61) at 3.2 °C. RH of 51.5% had the highest RR of Flu-A (9.98, 95%CI: 4.03–26.28) and Flu-B (4.63, 95%CI: 1.95–11.27). Wv of 3.5 m/s exerted the peaking RR of Flu-A (7.48, 95%CI: 2.73–30.04) and Flu-B (7.87, 95%CI: 5.53–11.91). DTR ≥ 12 °C and MeanT <22 °C were the key drivers for Flu-A and Flu-B, separately. The study found complex non-linear relationships between climate variability and different influenza types in Shanghai. We suggest the careful use of meteorological variables in influenza prediction in subtropical regions, considering such complex associations, which may facilitate government and health authorities to better minimize the impacts of seasonal influenza.

positive: A close look at the biology of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential influence of weather conditions and seasons on COVID-19 case spread BACKGROUND: There is sufficient epidemiological and biological evidence of increased human susceptibility to viral pathogens such as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, respiratory syncytial virus, human metapneumovirus and influenza virus, in cold weather. The pattern of outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China during the flu season is further proof that meteorological conditions may potentially influence the susceptibility of human populations to coronaviruses, a situation that may become increasingly evident as the current global pandemic of COVID-19 unfolds. MAIN BODY: A very rapid spread and high mortality rates have characterized the COVID-19 pandemic in countries north of the equator where air temperatures have been seasonally low. It is unclear if the currently high rates of COVID-19 infections in countries of the northern hemisphere will wane during the summer months, or if fewer people overall will become infected with COVID-19 in countries south of the equator where warmer weather conditions prevail through most of the year. However, apart from the influence of seasons, evidence based on the structural biology and biochemical properties of many enveloped viruses similar to the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 or SARS-CoV-2 (aetiology of COVID-19), support the higher likelihood of the latter of the two outcomes. Other factors that may potentially impact the rate of virus spread include the effectiveness of infection control practices, individual and herd immunity, and emergency preparedness levels of countries. CONCLUSION: This report highlights the potential influence of weather conditions, seasons and non-climatological factors on the geographical spread of cases of COVID-19 across the globe.

positive: Will heat kill the coronavirus? We don't know if changing seasons will help stem the outbreak, says Michael Le Page

positive: Seasonality and uncertainty in COVID-19 growth rates The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives. It remains unknown if summer weather will reduce its continued spread, thereby alleviating strains on hospitals and providing time for vaccine development. Early insights from laboratory studies of related coronaviruses predicted that COVID-19 would decline at higher temperatures, humidity, and ultraviolet light. Using current, fine-scaled weather data and global reports of infection we developed a model that explained 36% of variation in early growth rates before intervention, with 17% based on weather or demography and 19% based on country-specific effects. We found that ultraviolet light was most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth rates. Projections suggest that, in the absence of intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. However, uncertainty remains high and the probability of a weekly doubling rate remained >20% throughout the summer in the absence of control. Consequently, aggressive policy interventions will likely be needed in spite of seasonal trends.

positive: Multivariate Analysis of Black Race and Environmental Temperature on COVID-19 In the US BACKGROUND: There has been much interest in environmental temperature and race as modulators of Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) infection and mortality. However, in the United States race and temperature correlate with various other social determinants of health, comorbidities, and environmental influences that could be responsible for noted effects. This study investigates the independent effects of race and environmental temperature on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in United States counties. METHODS: Data on COVID-19 and risk factors in all United States counties was collected. 661 counties with at least 50 COVID-19 cases and 217 with at least 10 deaths were included in analyses. Upper and lower quartiles for cases/100,000 people and halves for deaths/100,000 people were compared with t-tests. Adjusted linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent effects of race and environmental temperature. RESULTS: Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated Black race is a risk factor for increased COVID-19 cases (OR=1.22, 95% CI: 1.09-1.40, P=0.001) and deaths independent of comorbidities, poverty, access to health care, and other risk factors. Higher environmental temperature independently reduced caseload (OR=0.81, 95% CI: 0.71-0.91, P=0.0009), but not deaths. CONCLUSIONS: Higher environmental temperatures correlated with reduced COVID-19 cases, but this benefit does not yet appear in mortality models. Black race was an independent risk factor for increased COVID-19 cases and deaths. Thus, many proposed mechanisms through which Black race might increase risk for COVID-19, such as socioeconomic and healthcare-related predispositions, are inadequate in explaining the full magnitude of this health disparity.

positive: The effect of latitude and PM(2.5) on spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in tropical and temperate zone countries() The present work describes spreading of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) at the tropical and temperate zones which are explained based on insolation energy, Particulate Matter (PM(2.5)), latitude, temperature, humidity, Population Density (PD), Human Development Index (HDI) and Global Health Security Index (GHSI) parameters. In order to analyze the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 by statistical data based on the confirmed positive cases which are collected between December 31, 2019 to April 25, 2020. The present analysis reveals that the outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in the major countries lie on the Equator is 78,509 cases, the countries lie on the Tropic of Cancer is 62,930 cases (excluding China) and the countries lie on the Tropic of Capricorn is 22,842 cases. The tropical countries, which comes between the Tropic of Cancer and Tropic of Capricorn is reported to be 1,77,877 cases. The temperate zone countries, which are above and below the tropical countries are reported to be 25, 66,171 cases so, the pandemic analysis describes the correlation between latitude, temperate zones, PM(2.5) and local environmental factors. Hence, the temperature plays a pivotal role in the spreading of coronavirus at below 20 °C. The spreading of SARS-CoV-2 cases in Northern and Southern Hemispheres has inverse order against absorption of insolated energy. In temperate zone countries, the concentration of PM(2.5) at below 20 μg/m(3) has higher spreading rate of SARS-CoV-2 cases. The effect of insolation energy and PM(2.5), it is confirmed that the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 is explained by dumb-bell model and solid/liquid interface formation mechanism. The present meta-analysis also focuses on the impact of GHSI, HDI, PD and PM(2.5) on spreading of SARS-CoV-2 cases.

positive: The effect of ambient temperature on worldwide COVID-19 cases and deaths - an epidemiological study Background The role of ambient temperature in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections and subsequent deaths due to COVID-19 remains contentious. Coronaviruses such as the 2003 SARS-CoV showed an increased risk of transmission during cooler days. We sought to analyse the effects of ambient temperature on SARS-COV-2 transmission and deaths related to the virus. Methods The world population of COVID-19 cases and attributable deaths from the 23rd January 2020 to 11th April 2020 were analysed. Temperature 5 days before cases and 23 days prior to deaths (to account for the time lag of incubation period and time from symptoms to death) was compared to the average temperature experienced by the world population. Results The total number of cases during this period was 1,605,788 and total number of deaths was 103,471. The median temperature at the time of COVID-19 infection was 9.12C (10-90th percentile 4.29-17.97C) whilst the median temperature of the world population for the same period was 9.61C warmer at 18.73C (10-90th percentile 4.09-28.49C) with a notional p-value = 5.1 x10-11. The median temperature at the time of a COVID-19 death was 9.72C (10-90th percentile 5.39-14.11C) whilst the median temperature of the world population was 7.55C warmer at 17.27C (10-90th percentile 2.57C-27.76C) with a notional p-value = 1.1 x10-10. 80% of all COVID-19 related cases and deaths occurred between 4.29C and 17.97C. Conclusion A definitive association between infection rate and death from COVID-19 and ambient temperature exists, with the highest risk occurring around 9C. Governments should maintain vigilance with containment strategies when the ambient temperatures correspond to this highest risk.

positive: Temperature significantly changes COVID-19 transmission in (sub)tropical cities of Brazil Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has become a severe public health issue. The novelty of the virus prompts a search for understanding of how ecological factors affect the transmission and survival of the virus. Several studies have robustly identified a relationship between temperature and the number of cases. However, there is no specific study for a tropical climate such as Brazil. This work aims to determine the relationship of temperature to COVID-19 infection for the state capital cities of Brazil. Cumulative data with the daily number of confirmed cases was collected from February 27 to April 1, 2020, for all 27 state capital cities of Brazil affected by COVID-19. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the linear and nonlinear relationship between annual average temperature compensation and confirmed cases. Also, a polynomial linear regression model was proposed to represent the behavior of the growth curve of COVID-19 in the capital cities of Brazil. The GAM dose-response curve suggested a negative linear relationship between temperatures and daily cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the range from 16.8 °C to 27.4 °C. Each 1 °C rise of temperature was associated with a −4.8951% (t = −2.29, p = 0.0226) decrease in the number of daily cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19. A sensitivity analysis assessed the robustness of the results of the model. The predicted R-squared of the polynomial linear regression model was 0.81053. In this study, which features the tropical temperatures of Brazil, the variation in annual average temperatures ranged from 16.8 °C to 27.4 °C. Results indicated that temperatures had a negative linear relationship with the number of confirmed cases. The curve flattened at a threshold of 25.8 °C. There is no evidence supporting that the curve declined for temperatures above 25.8 °C. The study had the goal of supporting governance for healthcare policymakers.

positive: Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol'-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces.

positive: Seasonality of respiratory viruses and bacterial pathogens BACKGROUND: Seasonal variation has been observed for various bacterial and viral infections. We aimed to further study seasonality of respiratory viruses and bacterial pathogens in relation to antibiotic use, as well as meteorological parameters. METHODS: An ecologic study of antibiotic exposure, meteorological parameters, detection of respiratory viruses and clinical isolates of Clostridioides difficile, Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae (grouped together as gram-negative bacteria; GNB) in Rhode Island from 2012 to 2016. RESULTS: Peak detection of C. difficile occurred 3 months after the peak in antibiotic prescriptions filled (OR = 1.24, 95% CI, 1.07–1.43; P = 0.006). Peak MRSA detection was noted 7 months after the peak in antibiotic prescriptions filled (OR = 1.69, 95% CI, 1.21–2.35; P = 0.003) and 10 months after the peak in respiratory virus detection (OR = 1.04, 95% CI, 1.01–1.06; P = 0.003). Peak GNB detection was noted 2 months after the peak mean monthly ambient temperature (OR = 1.69, 95% C.I., 1.20–2.39; P = 0.004). Peak detection of S. pneumoniae was noted at the same time as the peak in detection of respiratory viruses (OR = 1.01, 95% C.I., 1.00–1.01; P = 0.015). CONCLUSIONS: We identified distinct seasonal variation in detection of respiratory viruses and bacterial pathogens. C. difficile seasonality may, in part, be related to antibiotic prescriptions filled; GNB seasonality may be related to ambient temperature and S. pneumoniae may be related to concurrent respiratory viral infections. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13756-019-0574-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

positive: Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore Abstract Meteorological parameters are the critical factors affecting the transmission of infectious diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and influenza. Consequently, infectious disease incidence rates are likely to be influenced by the weather change. This study investigates the role of Singapore's hot tropical weather in COVID-19 transmission by exploring the association between meteorological parameters and the COVID-19 pandemic cases in Singapore. This study uses the secondary data of COVID-19 daily cases from the webpage of Ministry of Health (MOH), Singapore. Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to investigate the correlation between COVID-19 and meteorological parameters. Temperature, dew point, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and water vapor showed positive significant correlation with COVID-19 pandemic. These results will help the epidemiologists to understand the behavior of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus against meteorological variables. This study finding would be also a useful supplement to help the local healthcare policymakers, Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) in the process of strategy making to combat COVID-19 in Singapore.

positive: Can the summer temperature drop COVID-19 cases? Abstract Objective In spite of huge global, national and local preventive measures including travel restriction, social distancing and quarantines, outbreak of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 develops COVID-19 worldwide pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China took only three months to cover > 200 countries worldwide by infecting more than 2.4 million people and killing more than 150000 people. Though, this infection at the early stage creates seasonal flu-like symptoms with a higher illness, it eventually causes a higher mortality. Epidemiological studies not only find the causes of many health issues, but also suggest preventive measures. This study aimed to see the link between environment temperature and COVID-19 cases. Study design The monthly average environment temperature (MAET) and various COVID-19 cases of a country were collected, and analyzed to see the relationship between these parameters. Methods Univariate analysis and statistical modeling were used to determine the relationship between environment temperature and different COVID-19 cases. Results This study found that the majorities of the countries having higher COVID-19 cases are located in the higher latitude (colder region) in the globe. As of 20th April data available, statistical analyses by various methods have found that strong negative correlations with statistical significance exist between MAET and several COVID-19 cases including total cases, active cases and cases per million of a country [Spearman correlation coefficients were -0.45, -0.42, and -0.50 for total cases, active cases and cases/per million, respectively]. Analysis by statistical log-linear regression model further supports that the chance of COVID-19 patients is fewer in warmer countries than in colder countries. Conclusion This pilot study proposes that cold environment may be an additional risk factor for COVID-19 cases.

positive: The association between the seasonality of pediatric pandemic influenza virus outbreak and ambient meteorological factors in Shanghai BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The number of pediatric patients diagnosed with influenza types A and B is increasing annually, especially in temperate regions such as Shanghai (China). The onset of pandemic influenza viruses might be attributed to various ambient meteorological factors including temperature, relative humidity (Rh), and PM(1) concentrations, etc. The study aims to explore the correlation between the seasonality of pandemic influenza and these factors. METHODS: We recruited pediatric patients aged from 0 to 18 years who were diagnosed with influenza A or B from July 1st, 2017 to June 30th, 2019 in Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre (SCMC). Ambient meteorological data were collected from the Shanghai Meteorological Service (SMS) over the same period. The correlation of influenza outbreak and meteorological factors were analyzed through preliminary Pearson’s r correlation test and subsequent time-series Poisson regression analysis using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). RESULTS: Pearson’s r test showed a statistically significant correlation between the weekly number of influenza A outpatients and ambient meteorological factors including weekly mean, maximum, minimum temperature and barometric pressure (P < 0.001), and PM(1) (P < 0.01). While the weekly number of influenza B outpatients was statistically significantly correlated with weekly mean, maximum and minimum temperature (P < 0.001), barometric pressure and PM(1) (P < 0.01), and minimum Rh (P < 0.05). Mean temperature and PM(1) were demonstrated to be the statistically significant variables in the DLNM with influenza A and B outpatients through time-series Poisson regression analysis. A U-shaped curve relationship was noted between the mean temperature and influenza A cases (below 15 °C and above 20 °C), and the risks increased for influenza B with mean temperature below 10 °C. PM(1) posed a risk after a concentration of 23 ppm for both influenza A and B. High PM(1), low and the high temperature had significant effects upon the number of influenza A cases, whereas low temperature and high PM(1) had significant effects upon the number of influenza B cases. CONCLUSION: This study indicated that mean temperature and PM(1) were the primary factors that were continually associated with the seasonality of pediatric pandemic influenza A and B and the recurrence in the transmission and spread of influenza viruses.

positive: Coronavirus pandemic versus temperature in the context of Indian subcontinent: a preliminary statistical analysis The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has unleashed havoc across different countries and was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Since certain evidences indicate a direct relationship of various viruses with the weather (temperature in particular), the same is being speculated about COVID-19; however, it is still under investigation as the pandemic is advancing the world over. In this study, we tried to analyze the spread of COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent with respect to the local temperature regimes from March 9, 2020, to May 27, 2020. To establish the relation between COVID-19 and temperature in India, three different ecogeographical regions having significant temperature differences were taken into consideration for the analysis. We observed that except Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Kashmir showed a significantly positive correlation between the number of COVID-19 cases and the temperature during the period of study. The evidences based on the results presented in this research lead us to believe that the increasing temperature is beneficial to the COVID-19 spread, and the cases are going to rise further with the increasing temperature over India. We, therefore, conclude that the existing data, though limited, suggest that the spread of COVID-19 in India is not explained by the variation of temperature alone and is most likely driven by a host of other factors related to epidemiology, socioeconomics and other climatic factors. Based on the results, it is suggested that temperature should not be considered as a yardstick for planning intervention strategies for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza disease hit the human population like clockwork in the winter season in temperate regions. Moreover, epidemics caused by viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 occur during the winter months. The mechanisms underlying the seasonal nature of respiratory viral infections have been examined and debated for many years. The two major contributing factors are the changes in environmental parameters and human behavior. Studies have revealed the effect of temperature and humidity on respiratory virus stability and transmission rates. More recent research highlights the importance of the environmental factors, especially temperature and humidity, in modulating host intrinsic, innate, and adaptive immune responses to viral infections in the respiratory tract. Here we review evidence of how outdoor and indoor climates are linked to the seasonality of viral respiratory infections. We further discuss determinants of host response in the seasonality of respiratory viruses by highlighting recent studies in the field. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 7 is September 29, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

positive: Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: A prediction model for India in 2020 Abstract The effect of weather on COVID-19 spread is poorly understood. Recently, few studies have claimed that warm weather can possibly slowdown the global pandemic, which has already affected over 1.6 million people worldwide. Clarification of such relationships in the worst affected country, the US, can be immensely beneficial to understand the role of weather in transmission of the disease in the highly populated countries, such as India. We collected the daily data of new cases in 50 US states between Jan 1–Apr 9, 2020 and also the corresponding weather information (i.e., temperature (T) and absolute humidity (AH)). Distribution modeling of new cases across AH and T, helped identify the narrow and vulnerable AH range. We validated the results for 10-day intervals against monthly observations, and also worldwide trends. The results were used to predict Indian regions which would be vulnerable to weather based spread in upcoming months of 2020. COVID-19 spread in the US is significant for states with 4 < AH < 6 g/m3 and number of new cases > 10,000, irrespective of the chosen time intervals for study parameters. These trends are consistent with worldwide observations, but do not correlate well with India so far possibly due the total cases reported per interval < 10,000. The results clarify the relationship between weather parameters and COVID-19 spread. The vulnerable weather parameters will help classify the risky geographic areas in different countries. Specifically, with further reporting of new cases in India, prediction of states with high risk of weather based spread will be apparent.

positive: Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections. The seasonal cycle of respiratory viral diseases has been widely recognized for thousands of years, as annual epidemics of the common cold and influenza disease hit the human population like clockwork in the winter season in temperate regions. Moreover, epidemics caused by viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the newly emerging SARS-CoV-2 occur during the winter months. The mechanisms underlying the seasonal nature of respiratory viral infections have been examined and debated for many years. The two major contributing factors are the changes in environmental parameters and human behavior. Studies have revealed the effect of temperature and humidity on respiratory virus stability and transmission rates. More recent research highlights the importance of the environmental factors, especially temperature and humidity, in modulating host intrinsic, innate, and adaptive immune responses to viral infections in the respiratory tract. Here we review evidence of how outdoor and indoor climates are linked to the seasonality of viral respiratory infections. We further discuss determinants of host response in the seasonality of respiratory viruses by highlighting recent studies in the field. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Virology, Volume 7 is September 29, 2020. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

positive: COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: a time-series analysis COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 if of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004-0.07) in Hubei. Every 1°C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04°C to 8.2°C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.

positive: The sensitivity and specificity analyses of ambient temperature and population size on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in different provinces of Iran On 10 April 2020, Iran reported 68,192 COVID-19 cumulative cases including 4232 death and 35,465 recovery cases. Numerous factors could influence the transmission rate and survival of coronavirus. On this basis and according to the latest epidemiological researches, both ambient temperature (AT) and population size (PS) can be considered as significant transmissibility factors for coronavirus. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) allows measuring the performance of a classification model using the confusion matrix. This study intends to investigate the sensitivity of AT and PS on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in different provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the information of each province of Iran including the annual average of AT and the number of healthy and diseased cases are categorized. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity analyses of both AT and PS factors are performed. The obtained results confirm that AT and PS have low sensibility and high sensitivity, respectively. Thus, there is no scientific reason to confirm that the number of COVID-19 cases in warmer climates is less than that of moderate or cold climates. Therefore, it is recommended that the cities/provinces with a population of over 1.7 million people have stricter inspections and more precise controls as their management policy.

positive: Increasing Temperature and Relative Humidity Accelerates Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in China in late 2019 and is caused by newly identified severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Previous studies had reported the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture media and deposited onto surfaces under a limited set of environmental conditions. Here, we broadly investigated the effects of relative humidity, temperature, and droplet size on the stability of SARS-CoV-2 in a simulated clinically relevant matrix dried on nonporous surfaces. The results show that SARS-CoV-2 decayed more rapidly when either humidity or temperature was increased but that droplet volume (1 to 50 μl) and surface type (stainless steel, plastic, or nitrile glove) did not significantly impact decay rate. At room temperature (24°C), virus half-life ranged from 6.3 to 18.6 h depending on the relative humidity but was reduced to 1.0 to 8.9 h when the temperature was increased to 35°C. These findings suggest that a potential for fomite transmission may persist for hours to days in indoor environments and have implications for assessment of the risk posed by surface contamination in indoor environments. IMPORTANCE Mitigating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in clinical settings and public spaces is critically important to reduce the number of COVID-19 cases while effective vaccines and therapeutics are under development. SARS-CoV-2 transmission is thought to primarily occur through direct person-to-person transfer of infectious respiratory droplets or through aerosol-generating medical procedures. However, contact with contaminated surfaces may also play a significant role. In this context, understanding the factors contributing to SARS-CoV-2 persistence on surfaces will enable a more accurate estimation of the risk of contact transmission and inform mitigation strategies. To this end, we have developed a simple mathematical model that can be used to estimate virus decay on nonporous surfaces under a range of conditions and which may be utilized operationally to identify indoor environments in which the virus is most persistent.

positive: Investigation of effective climatology parameters on COVID-19 outbreak in Iran Abstract SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol’-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus's survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces.

positive: Will COVID-19 pandemic diminish by summer-monsoon in India? Lesson from the first lockdown The novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has created a medical emergency worldwide. It has spread rapidly to multiple countries and has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. In India, it is already reported more than 18 thousand cases and more than 600 deaths due to Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) till April 20, 2020. Previous studies on various viral infections like influenza have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that the cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments favor the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases. These viral transmissions found attenuated in warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments. However, the role of temperature, humidity, and absolute humidity in the transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been well established. Therefore the study to investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of COVID-19 infection, to predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against the new disease is required for India. In this work, we analyze the local weather patterns of the Indian region affected by the COVID-19 virus for March and April months, 2020. We have investigated the effect of meteorological parameters like Temperature, relative humidity, and absolute humidity on the rate of spread of COVID-19 using daily confirm cases in India. We have used daily averaged meteorological data for the last three years (2017-2019) for March and April month and the same for the year 2020 for March 1 to April 15. We found a positive association (Pearsons r=0.56) between temperature and daily COVID-19 cases over India. We found a negative association of humidity (RH and AH) with daily COVID-19 Cases (Persons r=-0.62, -0.37). We have also investigated the role of aerosol in spreading the pandemic across India because its possible airborne nature. For this, we have investigated the association of aerosols (AOD) and other pollutions (NO2) with COVID-19 cases during the study period and also during the first lockdown period (25 March-15 April) in India. We found a negative association in March when there were few cases, but in April, it shows positive association when the number of cases is more (for AOD it was r=-0.41 and r=0.28 respectively). During the lockdown period, aerosols (AOD) and other pollutants (NO2; an indicator of PM2.5) reduced sharply with a percentage drop of about 36 and 37, respectively. This reduction may have reduced the risk for COVID-19 through air transmission due to the unavailability of aerosol particles as a base. HYSPLIT forward trajectory model also shows that surface aerosols may travel up to 4 km according to wind and direction within three h of its generation. If coronavirus becomes airborne as suggested by many studies, then it may have a higher risk of transmission by aerosols particles. So relaxing in the lockdown and environmental rules in terms of pollutant emissions from power plants, factories, and other facilities would be a wrong choice and could result in more COVID-19 incidences and deaths in India. Therefore the current study, although limited, suggests that it is doubtful that the spread of COVID-19 would slow down in India due to meteorological factors, like high temperature and high humidity. Because a large number of cases have already been reported in the range of high Tem, high Relative, and high absolute humidity regions of India. Thus our results in no way suggest that COVID-19 would not spread in warm, humid regions or during summer/monsoon. So effective public health interventions should be implemented across India to slow down the transmission of COVID-19. If COVID-19 is indeed sensitive to environmental factors, it could be tested in the coming summer-monsoon for India. So the only summer is not going to help India until monsoon is coming. Only government mitigations strategies would be helpful, whether its lockdown, aggressive and strategic testing, medical facilities, imposing social distancing, encouraging to use face mask or monitoring by a mobile application (Aarogya Setu).

positive: An environmental determinant of viral respiratory disease The evident seasonality of influenza suggests a significant role for weather and climate as one of several determinants of viral respiratory disease (VRD), including social determinants which play a major role in shaping these phenomena. Based on the current mechanistic understanding of how VRDs are transmitted by small droplets, we identify an environmental variable, Air Drying Capacity (ADC), as an atmospheric state-variable with significant and direct relevance to the transmission of VRD. ADC dictates the evolution and fate of droplets under given temperature and humidity conditions. The definition of this variable is rooted in the Maxwell theory of droplet evolution via coupled heat and mass transfer between droplets and the surrounding environment. We present the climatology of ADC, and compare its observed distribution in space and time to the observed prevalence of influenza and COVID-19 from extensive global data sets. Globally, large ADC values appear to significantly constrain the observed transmission and spread of VRD, consistent with the significant coherency of the observed seasonal cycles of ADC and influenza. Our results introduce a new environmental determinant, rooted in the mechanism of VRD transmission, with potential implications for explaining seasonality of influenza, and for describing how environmental conditions may impact to some degree the evolution of similar VRDs, such as COVID-19.

positive: Distribution of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic and Its Monthly Forecast Based on Seasonal Climate Patterns This paper investigates whether the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic could have been favored by specific weather conditions and other factors. It is found that the 2020 winter weather in the region of Wuhan (Hubei, Central China)—where the virus first broke out in December and spread widely from January to February 2020—was strikingly similar to that of the Northern Italian provinces of Milan, Brescia and Bergamo, where the pandemic broke out from February to March. The statistical analysis was extended to cover the United States of America, which overtook Italy and China as the country with the highest number of confirmed COronaVIrus Disease 19 (COVID-19) cases, and then to the entire world. The found correlation patterns suggest that the COVID-19 lethality significantly worsens (4 times on average) under weather temperatures between 4 °C and 12 °C and relative humidity between 60% and 80%. Possible co-factors such as median population age and air pollution were also investigated suggesting an important influence of the former but not of the latter, at least, on a synoptic scale. Based on these results, specific isotherm world maps were generated to locate, month by month, the world regions that share similar temperature ranges. From February to March, the 4–12 °C isotherm zone extended mostly from Central China toward Iran, Turkey, West-Mediterranean Europe (Italy, Spain and France) up to the United State of America, optimally coinciding with the geographic regions most affected by the pandemic from February to March. It is predicted that in the spring, as the weather gets warm, the pandemic will likely worsen in northern regions (United Kingdom, Germany, East Europe, Russia and North America) while the situation will likely improve in the southern regions (Italy and Spain). However, in autumn, the pandemic could come back and affect the same regions again. The Tropical Zone and the entire Southern Hemisphere, but in restricted colder southern regions, could avoid a strong pandemic because of the sufficiently warm weather during the entire year and because of the lower median age of their population. Google-Earth-Pro interactive-maps covering the entire world are provided as supplementary files.

positive: Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19 We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by a readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temperature and growth rate, and evaluate its statistical confidence. The results clearly support the first reported statistically significant relationship of negative correlation between the average environmental temperature and exponential growth rates of the infected cases. The critical temperature, which eliminates the exponential growth, and thus the COVID-19 spread in US regions, is estimated to be TC = 86.1 ± 4.3 F0.

positive: Is temperature reducing the transmission of COVID-19 ?

positive: A relationship between acute respiratory illnesses and weather. Weekly data from 7 years (2004-2010) of primary-care counts of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) and local weather readings were used to adjust a multivariate time-series vector error correction model with covariates (VECMX). Weather variables were included through a partial least squares index that consisted of weekly minimum temperature (coefficient = - 0·26), weekly median of relative humidity (coefficient = 0·22) and weekly accumulated rainfall (coefficient = 0·5). The VECMX long-term test reported significance for trend (0·01, P = 0·00) and weather index (1·69, P = 0·00). Short-term relationship was influenced by seasonality. The model accounted for 76% of the variability in the series (adj. R 2 = 0·76), and the co-integration diagnostics confirmed its appropriateness. The procedure is easily reproducible by researchers in all climates, can be used to identify relevant weather fluctuations affecting the incidence of ARIs, and could help clarify the influence of contact rates on the spread of these diseases.

positive: Temperature and precipitation associate with Covid-19 new daily cases: A correlation study between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Oslo, Norway This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in the capital city of Norway, Oslo. This study employed a secondary data analysis of covid-19 surveillance data from the Norwegian public health institute and weather data from the Norwegian Meteorological institute. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), normal temperature (°C), precipitation level (mm) and wind speed (m/s). Since normality was not fulfilled, a non-parametric correlation test was used for data analysis. Maximum temperature (r = 0.347; p = .005), normal temperature(r = 0.293; p = .019), and precipitation level (r = -0.285; p = .022) were significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic. The finding might serve as an input to a strategy making in the prevention of covid-19 as the country prepare to enter into a new weather season.

positive: The role of climate during the COVID‐19 epidemic in New South Wales, Australia Previous research has identified a relationship between climate and occurrence of SARS‐CoV and MERS‐CoV cases, information that can be used to reduce the risk of infection. Using COVID‐19 notification and postcode data from New South Wales, Australia during the exponential phase of the epidemic in 2020, we used time series analysis to investigate the relationship between 749 cases of locally acquired COVID‐19 and daily rainfall, 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. temperature, and 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. relative humidity. Lower 9 a.m. relative humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was associated with increased case occurrence; a reduction in relative humidity of 1% was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID‐19 cases by 6.11%. During periods of low relative humidity, the public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID‐19 cases.

positive: Do Humidity and Temperature Impact the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus?

positive: Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 80,000 confirmed infections and 2,700 fatalities (as of Feb 27, 2020). Imported cases and transmission clusters of various sizes have been reported globally suggesting a pandemic is likely. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterize our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.

positive: The Benefits of Transmission Dynamics Models in Understanding Emerging Infectious Diseases Abstract Factors associated with the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases often do not follow the assumptions of traditional statistical models such as linearity and independence of outcomes. Transmission dynamics models are well suited to address infectious disease scenarios that do not conform to these assumptions. For example, these models easily account for changes in the incidence rates of infection as the proportions of susceptible and infectious persons change in the population. Fundamental concepts relating to these methods, such as the basic reproductive number, the effective reproductive number and the susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental models, are reviewed. In addition, comparisons and contrasts are made between the following concepts: microparasites and macroparasites, deterministic and stochastic models, difference and differential equations and homogeneous and heterogeneous mixing patterns. Finally, examples of how transmission dynamics models are being applied to factors associated with emerging infectious diseases, such as zoonotic origins, microbial adaption and change, human susceptibility and climate change, are reviewed.

positive: Roles of meteorological conditions in COVID-19 transmission on a worldwide scale The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/ 2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 has caused great damage to public health and economy worldwide with over 140,000 infected cases up to date. Previous research has suggested an involvement of meteorological conditions in the spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, such as influenza. However, as for the recent novel coronavirus, few studies have discussed systematically about the role of daily weather in the epidemic transmission of the virus. Here, we examine the relationships of meteorological variables with the severity of the outbreak on a worldwide scale. The confirmed case counts, which indicates the severity of COVID-19 spread, and four meteorological variables, i.e., air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and visibility, were collected daily between January 20 and March 11 (52 days) for 430 cities and districts all over China, 21 cities/ provinces in Italy, 21 cities/ provinces in Japan, and 51 other countries around the world. Four different time delays of weather (on the day, 3 days ago, 7 days ago, and 14 days ago) as to the epidemic situation were taken for modeling and we finally chose the weather two weeks ago to model against the daily epidemic situation as its correlated with the outbreak best. Taken Chinese cities as a discovery dataset, it was suggested that temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity combined together could best predict the epidemic situation. The meteorological model could well predict the outbreak around the world with a high correlation (r2>0.6) with the real data. Using this model, we further predicted the possible epidemic situation in the future 12 days in several high-latitude cities with potential outbreak. This model could provide more information for government's future decisions on COVID-19 outbreak control.

positive: Asymmetric nexus between temperature and COVID-19 in the top ten affected provinces of China: A current application of quantile-on-quantile approach The present study examines the asymmetrical effect of temperature on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease) from 22 January 2020 to 31 March 2020 in the 10 most affected provinces in China. This study used the Sim & Zhou' quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to analyze how the temperature quantities affect the different quantiles of COVID-19. Daily COVID-19 and, temperature data collected from the official websites of the Chinese National Health Commission and Weather Underground Company (WUC) respectively. Empirical results have shown that the relationship between temperature and COVID-19 is mostly positive for Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui, while mostly negative for Zhejiang and Shandong provinces. The remaining five provinces Guangdong, Henan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, and Heilongjiang are showing the mixed trends. These differences among the provinces can be explained by the differences in the number of COVID-19 cases, temperature, and the province's overall hospital facilitations. The study concludes that maintaining a safe and comfortable atmosphere for patients while COVID-19 is being treated may be rational.

positive: The Seasonal End of Human Coronavirus Hospital Admissions with Implications for SARS-CoV-2 The seasonality of influenza viruses and endemic human coronaviruses was tracked over an 8-year period to assess key epidemiologic reduction points in disease incidence for an urban area in the northeast United States. Patients admitted to a pediatric hospital with worsening respiratory symptoms were tested using a multiplex PCR assay from nasopharyngeal swabs. The additive seasonal effects of outdoor temperatures and indoor relative humidity (RH) were evaluated. The 8-year average peak activity of human coronaviruses occurred in the first week of January, when droplet and contact transmission was enabled by the low indoor RH of 20-30%. Previous studies have shown that an increase in RH to 50% has been associated with markedly reduced viability and transmission of influenza virus and animal coronaviruses. As disease incidence was reduced by 50% in early March, to 75% in early April, to greater than 99% at the end of April, a relationship was observed from colder temperatures in January with a low indoor RH to a gradual increase in outdoor temperatures in April with an indoor RH of 45-50%. As a lipid-bound, enveloped virus with similar size characteristics to endemic human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 should be subject to the same dynamics of reduced viability and transmission with increased humidity. In addition to the major role of social distancing, the transition from lower to higher indoor RH with increasing outdoor temperatures could have an additive effect on the decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases in May. Over the 8-year period of this study, human coronavirus activity was either zero or >99% reduction in the months of June through September, and the implication would be that SARS-Cov-2 may follow a similar pattern.

positive: Correlation between climate indicators and COVID-19 pandemic in New York, USA This study analyzed the association between COVID-19 and climate indicators in New York City, USA. We used secondary published data from New York city health services and National weather service, USA. The climate indicators included in the study are average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, average humidity, wind speed, and air quality. Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests were chosen for data analysis. We find that average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality were significantly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this study will help World Health Organization and health regulators such as Center for Disease Control (CDC) to combat COVID-19 in New York and the rest of the world.

positive: Temperature and Humidity Do Not Influence Global COVID-19 Incidence as Inferred from Causal Models The relationship between meteorological factors such as temperature and humidity with COVID-19 incidence is still unclear after 6 months of the beginning of the pandemic. Some literature confirms the association of temperature with disease transmission while some oppose the same. This work intends to determine whether there is a causal association between temperature, humidity and Covid-19 cases. Three different causal models were used to capture stochastic, chaotic and symbolic natured time-series data and to provide a robust & unbiased analysis by constructing networks of causal relationships between the variables. Granger-Causality method, Transfer Entropy method & Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) was done on data from regions with different temperatures and cases greater than 50,000 as of 13th May 2020. From the Granger-Causality test we found that in only Canada, the United Kingdom, temperature and daily new infections are causally linked. The same results were obtained from Convergent Cross Mapping for India. Again using Granger-Causality test, we found that in Russia only, relative humidity is causally linked to daily new cases. Thus, a Generalized Additive Model with a smoothing spline function was fitted for these countries to understand the directionality. Using the combined results of the said models, we were able to conclude that there is no evidence of a causal association between temperature, humidity and Covid-19 cases.

positive: Statistical investigation of relationship between spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and environmental factors based on study of four mostly affected places of China and five mostly affected places of Italy COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus disease which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It originated in China in the month of December 2019 and quickly started to spread within the country. On 31st December 2019, it was first reported to country office of World Health Organization (WHO) in China. Since then, it has spread to most of the countries around the globe. However, there has been a recent rise in trend in believing that it would go away during summer days, which has not yet been properly investigated. In this paper, relationship of daily number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with three environmental factors, viz. maximum relative humidity (RH_max), maximum temperature (T_max) and highest wind speed (WS_max), considering the incubation period, have been investigated statistically, for four of the most affected places of China, viz. Beijing, Chongqing, Shanghai, Wuhan and five of the most affected places of Italy, viz. Bergamo, Cremona, Lodi, Milano. It has been found that the relationship with maximum relative humidity and highest wind is mostly negligible, whereas relationship with maximum temperature is ranging between negligible to moderate.

positive: Development of an Assessment Method for Investigating the Impact of Climate and Urban Parameters in Confirmed Cases of COVID-19: A New Challenge in Sustainable Development Sustainable development has been a controversial global topic, and as a complex concept in recent years, it plays a key role in creating a favorable future for societies. Meanwhile, there are several problems in the process of implementing this approach, like epidemic diseases. Hence, in this study, the impact of climate and urban factors on confirmed cases of COVID-19 (a new type of coronavirus) with the trend and multivariate linear regression (MLR) has been investigated to propose a more accurate prediction model. For this propose, some important climate parameters, including daily average temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, in addition to urban parameters such as population density, were considered, and their impacts on confirmed cases of COVID-19 were analyzed. The analysis was performed for three case studies in Italy, and the application of the proposed method has been investigated. The impacts of parameters have been considered with a delay time from one to nine days to find out the most suitable combination. The result of the analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model and the impact of climate parameters on the trend of confirmed cases. The research hypothesis approved by the MLR model and the present assessment method could be applied by considering several variables that exhibit the exact delay of them to new confirmed cases of COVID-19.

positive: Evaluating the impact of the weather conditions on the influenza propagation BACKGROUND: Predicting the details of how an epidemic evolves is highly valuable as health institutions need to better plan towards limiting the infection propagation effects and optimizing their prediction and response capabilities. Simulation is a cost- and time-effective way of predicting the evolution of the infection as the joint influence of many different factors: interaction patterns, personal characteristics, travel patterns, meteorological conditions, previous vaccination, etc. The work presented in this paper extends EpiGraph, our influenza epidemic simulator, by introducing a meteorological model as a modular component that interacts with the rest of EpiGraph’s modules to refine our previous simulation results. Our goal is to estimate the effects of changes in temperature and relative humidity on the patterns of epidemic influenza based on data provided by the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (SISSS) and the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). METHODS: Our meteorological model is based on the regression model developed by AB and JS, and it is tuned with influenza surveillance data obtained from SISSS. After pre-processing this data to clean it and reconstruct missing samples, we obtain new values for the reproduction number of each urban region in Spain, every 10 minutes during 2011. We simulate the propagation of the influenza by setting the date of the epidemic onset and the initial influenza-illness rates for each urban region. RESULTS: We show that the simulation results have the same propagation shape as the weekly influenza rates as recorded by SISSS. We perform experiments for a realistic scenario based on actual meteorological data from 2010-2011, and for synthetic values assumed under simplified predicted climate change conditions. Results show that a diminishing relative humidity of 10% produces an increment of about 1.6% in the final infection rate. The effect of temperature changes on the infection spread is also noticeable, with a decrease of 1.1% per extra degree.Conclusions: Using a tool like ours could help predict the shape of developing epidemics and its peaks, and would permit to quickly run scenarios to determine the evolution of the epidemic under different conditions. We make EpiGraph source code and epidemic data publicly available.

positive: Effects of meteorological conditions and air pollution on COVID-19 transmission: Evidence from 219 Chinese cities The spatial distribution of the COVID-19 infection in China cannot be explained solely by geographical distance and regulatory stringency. In this research we investigate how meteorological conditions and air pollution, as concurring factors, impact COVID-19 transmission, using data on new confirmed cases from 219 prefecture cities from January 24 to February 29, 2020. Results revealed a kind of nonlinear dose-response relationship between temperature and coronavirus transmission. We also found that air pollution indicators are positively correlated with new confirmed cases, and the coronavirus further spreads by 5-7% as the AQI increases by 10 units. Further analysis based on regional divisions revealed that in northern China the negative effects of rising temperature on COVID-19 is counteracted by aggravated air pollution. In the southern cities, the ambient temperature and air pollution have a negative interactive effect on COVID-19 transmission, implying that rising temperature restrains the facilitating effects of air pollution and that they jointly lead to a decrease in new confirmed cases. These results provide implications for the control and prevention of this disease and for the anticipation of another possible pandemic.

positive: On the global trends and spread of the COVID-19 outbreak: preliminary assessment of the potential relation between location-specific temperature and UV index The novel coronavirus, since its first outbreak in December, has, up till now, affected approximately 114,542 people across 115 countries. Many international agencies are devoting efforts to enhance the understanding of the evolving COVID-19 outbreak on an international level, its influences, and preparedness. At present, COVID-19 appears to affect individuals through person-to-person means, like other commonly found cold or influenza viruses. It is widely known and acknowledged that viruses causing influenza peak during cold temperatures and gradually subside in the warmer temperature, owing to their seasonality. Thus, COVID-19, due to its regular flu-like symptoms, is also expected to show similar seasonality and subside as the global temperatures rise in the northern hemisphere with the onset of spring. Despite these speculations, however, the systematic analysis in the global perspective of the relation between COVID-19 spread and meteorological parameters is unavailable. Here, by analyzing the region- and city-specific affected global data and corresponding meteorological parameters, we show that there is an optimum range of temperature and UV index strongly affecting the spread and survival of the virus, whereas precipitation, relative humidity, cloud cover, etc. have no effect on the virus. Unavailability of pharmaceutical interventions would require greater preparedness and alert for the effective control of COVID-19. Under these conditions, the information provided here could be very helpful for the global community struggling to fight this global crisis. It is, however, important to note that the information presented here clearly lacks any physiological evidences, which may merit further investigation. Thus, any attempt for management, implementation, and evaluation strategies responding to the crisis arising due to the COVID-19 outbreak must not consider the evaluation presented here as the foremost factor.

positive: Temperature and relative humidity are not major contributing factor on the occurrence of COVID-19 pandemic: An observational study in 57 countries The world searching for hope has already experienced a huge loss of lives due to COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 started in Wuhan, China. There are speculations that climatic conditions can slowdown the transmission of COVID-19.Findings from the early outbreak indicated the possible association of air temperature and relative humidity in COVID-19 occurrence in China. Current study focused on whether climatic conditions(temperature and relative humidity)are having any influence in the occurrence of COVID-19 when the outbreak has been classified as pandemic. To determine the effect of daily average temperature and average relative humidity on log-transformed total daily cases of COVID-19, polynomial regression as a quadratic term and linear regression were done. Linear regression analysis was also carried out to explore the same effect on selected countries. Present study observed no correlation between the climatic conditions (the daily average temperature and relative humidity) and the number of cases of COVID-19. Similar result was found in relation between daily average temperature and average number of cases per day in country-wise analysis. However, about 93.5% cases of COVID-19 occurred between 10C to 160C and the average number of cases per day was lower in high temperature country than low temperature country with exceptions. The minimum effect of summer temperature may not be effective to control the pandemic rather need to apply the control measures of COVID-19.

positive: Weather Conditions and COVID-19 Transmission: Estimates and Projections Background: Understanding and projecting the spread of COVID-19 requires reliable estimates of how weather components are associated with the transmission of the virus. Prior research on this topic has been inconclusive. Identifying key challenges to reliable estimation of weather impact on transmission we study this question using one of the largest assembled databases of COVID-19 infections and weather. Methods: We assemble a dataset that includes virus transmission and weather data across 3,739 locations from December 12, 2019 to April 22, 2020. Using simulation, we identify key challenges to reliable estimation of weather impacts on transmission, design a statistical method to overcome these challenges, and validate it in a blinded simulation study. Using this method and controlling for location-specific response trends we estimate how different weather variables are associated with the reproduction number for COVID-19. We then use the estimates to project the relative weather-related risk of COVID-19 transmission across the world and in large cities. Results: We show that the delay between exposure and detection of infection complicates the estimation of weather impact on COVID-19 transmission, potentially explaining significant variability in results to-date. Correcting for that distributed delay and offering conservative estimates, we find a negative relationship between temperatures above 25 degrees Celsius and estimated reproduction number ([R]), with each degree Celsius associated with a 3.1% (95% CI, 1.5% to 4.8%) reduction in [R]. Higher levels of relative humidity strengthen the negative effect of temperature above 25 degrees. Moreover, one millibar of additional pressure increases [R] by approximately 0.8 percent (95% CI, 0.6% to 1%) at the median pressure (1016 millibars) in our sample. We also find significant positive effects for wind speed, precipitation, and diurnal temperature on [R]. Sensitivity analysis and simulations show that results are robust to multiple assumptions. Despite conservative estimates, weather effects are associated with a 43% change in [R] between the 5th and 95th percentile of weather conditions in our sample. Conclusions: These results provide evidence for the relationship between several weather variables and the spread of COVID-19. However, the (conservatively) estimated relationships are not strong enough to seasonally control the epidemic in most locations.

positive: Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate: A case study for the most affected Brazilian cities This study aimed to analyze how meteorological conditions such as temperature, humidity and rainfall can affect the spread of COVID-19 in five Brazilian (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Manaus and Fortaleza) cities. The cities selected were those with the largest number of confirmed cases considering data of April 13. Variables such as number of cumulative cases, new daily cases and contamination rate were employed for this study. Our results showed that higher mean temperatures and average relative humidity favored the COVID-19 transmission, differently from reports from coldest countries or periods of time under cool temperatures. Thus, considering the results obtained, intersectoral policies and actions are necessary, mainly in cities where the contamination rate is increasing rapidly. Thus, prevention and protection measures should be adopted in these cities aiming to reduce transmission and the possible collapse of the health system.

positive: Climate factors and incidence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus Abstract Background Our understanding of climate factors and their links to the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) outbreaks is incomplete. This study aimed to estimate the monthly incidence of MERS-CoV cases and to investigate their correlation to climate factors. Methods The study used aggregated monthly MERS-CoV cases that reported to the Saudi Center for Disease Prevention and Control from the Riyadh Region between November 1, 2012 and December 31, 2018. Data on the meteorological situation throughout the study period was calculated based on Google reports on the Riyadh Region (24.7136°N, 46.6753°E). The Poisson regression was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) and its 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each climate factor. Results A total of 712 MERS-CoV cases were included in the analysis (mean age 54.2±9.9 years), and more than half (404) (56.1%) MERS-CoV cases were diagnosed during a five-month period from April to August. The highest peak timing positioned in August 2015, followed by April 2014, June 2017, March 2015, and June 2016. High temperatures (IRR=1.054, 95% CI: 1.043–1.065) and a high ultraviolet index (IRR=1.401, 95% CI: 1.331–1.475) were correlated with a higher incidence of MERS-CoV cases. However, low relative humidity (IRR=0.956, 95% CI: 0.948–0.964) and low wind speed (IRR=0.945, 95% CI: 0.912–0.979) were correlated with a lower incidence of MERS-CoV cases. Conclusion The novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV, is influenced by climate conditions with increasing incidence between April and August. High temperature, high ultraviolet index, low wind speed, and low relative humidity are contributors to increased MERS-CoV cases. The climate factors must be evaluated in hospitals and community settings and integrated into guidelines to serve as source of control measures to prevent and eliminate the risk of infection.

positive: Weather: driving force behind the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China? Background: The association between weather and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) transmission in Beijing and Hong Kong in the 2003 epidemic was studied to examine the effect of weather on SARS transmission. Methods: Pearson’s correlation analyses and negative binomial regression analyses were used to quantify the correlations between the daily newly reported number of SARS cases and weather variables, using daily disease notification data and meteorological data from the two locations. Results: The results indicate that there were inverse association between the number of daily cases and maximum and/or minimum temperatures whereas air pressure was found to be positively associated with SARS transmission. Conclusion: The study suggests that weather might be a contributory factor in the 2003 SARS epidemic, in particular in the transmission among the community members.

positive: The effects of regional climatic condition on the spread of COVID-19 at global scale The pandemic outbreak of the novel coronavirus epidemic disease (COVID-19) is spreading like a diffusion-reaction in the world and almost 208 countries and territories are being affected around the globe. It became a sever health and socio-economic problem, while the world has no vaccine to combat this virus. This research aims to analyze the connection between the fast spread of COVID-19 and regional climate parameters over a global scale. In this research, we collected the data of COVID-19 cases from the time of 1st reported case to the 5th June 2020 in different affected countries and regional climatic parameters data from January 2020 to 5th June 2020. It was found that most of the countries located in the relatively lower temperature region show a rapid increase in the COVID-19 cases than the countries locating in the warmer climatic regions despite their better socio-economic conditions. A correlation between metrological parameters and COVID-19 cases was observed. Average daylight hours are correlated to total the COVID-19 cases with a coefficient of determination of 0.42, while average high-temperature shows a correlation of 0.59 and 0.42 with total COVID-19 cases and death cases respectively. The finding of the study will help international health organizations and local administrations to combat and well manage the spread of COVID-19.

positive: Maximum Daily Temperature, Precipitation, Ultra-Violet Light and Rates of Transmission of SARS-Cov-2 in the United States BACKGROUND: Previous reports have suggested that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is reduced by higher temperatures and higher humidity. We analyzed case-data from the United States to investigate effects of temperature, precipitation, and UV Light on community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: Daily reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 across the United States from 01/22/2020 to 04/03/2020 were analyzed. We used negative binomial regression modelling to investigate whether daily maximum temperature, precipitation, UV Index and the incidence 5 days later were related. We performed sensitivity analyses at 3 days, 7 days and 9 days to assess transmission lags. RESULTS: A maximum temperature greater than 52°F on a given day was associated with a lower rate of new cases at 5 days[IRR: 0.85(0.76,0.96)p=0.009]. Among observations with daily temperatures below 52°F, there was a significant inverse association between the maximum daily temperature and the rate of cases at 5 days [IRR 0.98(0.97,0.99)p=0.001]. The rate of new cases was predicted to be lower for theoretical states that maintained a stable maximum daily temperature above 52°F with a predicted 23-fewer cases per-million per-day by 25 days of the epidemic. A 1-unit higher UV index was associated with a lower rate at 5 days [IRR 0.97(0.95,0.99)p=0.004]. Precipitation was not associated with a greater rate of cases at 5 days [IRR 0.98(0.89,1.08)p=0.65]. CONCLUSION: The incidence of disease declines with increasing temperature up until 52°F and is lower at warmer versus cooler temperatures. However, the association between temperature and transmission is small and transmission is likely to remain high at warmer temperatures.

positive: Analyzing the Effect of Temperature on the Outspread of COVID-19 around the Globe The emergence of the pandemic around the world owing to COVID-19 is putting the world into a big threat. Many factors may be involved in the transmission of this deadly disease but not much-supporting data are available. Till now no proper evidences has been reported supporting that temperature changes can affect COVID-19 transmission. This work aims to correlate the effect of temperature with that of Total Cases, Recovery, Death, and Critical cases all around the globe. All the data were collected in April and the maximum and minimum temperature and the average temperature were collected from January to April (i.e the months during which the disease was spread). Regression was conducted to find a non-linear relationship between Temperate and the cases. It was evident that indeed temperature does have a significant effect on the total cases and recovery rate around the globe. It was also evident from the study that the countries with lower temperatures are the hotspots for COVID-19. The Study depicted a non-linear dose-response between temperature and the transmission, indicating the existence of the best temperature for its transmission. This study can indeed put some light on how temperature can be a significant factor in COVID-19 transmission.

positive: Analysis of meteorological conditions and prediction of epidemic trend of 2019-nCoV infection in 2020 Objective: To investigate the meteorological condition for incidence and spread of 2019-nCoV infection, to predict the epidemiology of the infectious disease, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against the new disease. Methods: The meteorological factors during the outbreak period of the novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan in 2019 were collected and analyzed, and were confirmed with those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in China in 2003. Data of patients infected with 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus were collected from WHO website and other public sources. Results: This study found that the suitable temperature range for 2019-nCoV coronavirus survival is (13-24 degree Celsius), among which 19 degree Celsius lasting about 60 days is conducive to the spread between the vector and humans; the humidity range is 50%-80%, of which about 75% humidity is conducive to the survival of the coronavirus; the suitable precipitation range is below 30 mm/ month. Cold air and continuous low temperature over one week are helpful for the elimination of the virus. The prediction results show that with the approach of spring, the temperature in north China gradually rises, and the coronavirus spreads to middle and high latitudes along the temperature line of 13-18 degree Celsius. The population of new coronavirus infections is concentrated in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and other urban agglomerations. Starting from May 2020, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the Central China Zhengzhou-Wuhan urban agglomeration, the eastern Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai urban agglomeration, and the southern Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration are all under a high temperature above 24 degree Celsius, which is not conducive to the survival and reproduction of coronaviruses, so the epidemic is expected to end. Conclusions: A wide range of continuous warm and dry weather is conducive to the survival of 2019-nCoV. The coming of spring, in addition to the original Wuhan-Zhengzhou urban agglomeration in central China, means that the prevention and control measures in big cities located in mid-latitude should be strengthened, especially the monitoring of transportation hubs. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is a concentrated area of population in south China, with a faster temperature rise than those in mid-high latitudes, and thus the prevention in this area should be prioritized. From a global perspective, cities with a mean temperature below 24 degree Celsius are all high-risk cities for 2019-nCoV transmission before June.

positive: The correlation between the spread of COVID-19 infections and weather variables in 30 Chinese provinces and the impact of Chinese government mitigation plans. On February 1, 2020, China announced a novel coronavirus CoVID-19 outbreak to the public. CoVID-19 was classified as an epidemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Although the disease was discovered and concentrated in Hubei Province, China, it was exported to all of the other Chinese provinces and spread globally. As of this writing, all plans have failed to contain the novel coronavirus disease, and it has continued to spread to the rest of the world. This study aimed to explore and interpret the effect of environmental and metrological variables on the spread of coronavirus disease in 30 provinces in China, as well as to investigate the impact of new China regulations and plans to mitigate further spread of infections. This article forecasts the size of the disease spreading based on time series forecasting. The growing size of CoVID-19 in China for the next 210 days is estimated by predicting the expected confirmed and recovered cases. The results revealed that weather conditions largely influence the spread of coronavirus in most of the Chinese provinces. This study has determined that increasing temperature and short-wave radiation would positively increase the number of confirmed cases, mortality rate, and recovered cases. The findings of this study agree with the results of our previous study.

positive: Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China Abstract Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = −0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [−7.50% (95% CI: −10.99%, −3.88%) and −11.41% (95% CI: −19.68%, −2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.

positive: Incidence of common respiratory viral infections related to climate factors in hospitalized children in Hong Kong. Hong Kong has a subtropical climate and an influenza seasonality lying approximately mid-way (March-June) between those of the Northern (November-March) and Southern (June-September) hemispheres. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) shares a similar seasonality to that of influenza in Hong Kong and is another important respiratory infection of childhood. Daily virus incidence data from public hospitals in Hong Kong's New Territory East Cluster, together with Hong Kong climate data were obtained for 2000-2007. Statistical time-series analysis using monthly time windows showed that influenza A and RSV incidence increased with higher environmental relative humidity, whereas influenza B incidence decreased with higher environmental temperatures. The other climate variables (including vapour pressure as a measure of absolute humidity) were not significantly related to the incidence of these respiratory viruses. Data from this study further reinforces the concept that the relationship between climate factors and respiratory virus incidence differ between subtropical/tropical and temperate countries.

positive: Quantifying socioeconomic activities and weather effects on the global spread of COVID-19 epidemic The COVID-19 has caused more than three million infections and over two hundred thousand deaths by April 20201. Limiting socioeconomic activities (SA) is among the most adopted governmental mitigating efforts to combat the transmission of the virus, though the degree varies dramatically among different regimes2. This study aims to quantify the contribution from the SA and weather conditions to the transmission of COVID-19 at global scale. Ruling out the unobservable factors including medical facilities and other control policies (MOC) through region-by-time fixed effects3,4, we show that the limiting SA has a leading contribution to lower the reproductive number by 18.3%, while weather conditions, including ultraviolet, relative humidity, and wind explain a smaller amount of variation. Temperature might have a non-monotonic impact on the transmission. We further show that in developed countries5 and China, the SA effect is more pronounced whereas the weather effect is significantly downplayed possibly because people tend to stay indoors most of the time with a controlled climate. We finally estimate the reduced reproductive number and the population spared from infections due to restricting SA at 40,964, 180,336, 174,494, in China, United States, and Europe respectively. From late January to mid-April, all regions, except for China, Australia, and south Korea show a steep upward trend of spared infections due to restricting SA. US and Europe, in particular, show far steeper upward trends of spared infections in the analyzed timeframe, signaling a greater risk of reopening the economy too soon.

positive: Potential Factors Influencing Repeated SARS Outbreaks in China Within last 17 years two widespread epidemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) occurred in China, which were caused by related coronaviruses (CoVs): SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. Although the origin(s) of these viruses are still unknown and their occurrences in nature are mysterious, some general patterns of their pathogenesis and epidemics are noticeable. Both viruses utilize the same receptor—angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2)—for invading human bodies. Both epidemics occurred in cold dry winter seasons celebrated with major holidays, and started in regions where dietary consumption of wildlife is a fashion. Thus, if bats were the natural hosts of SARS-CoVs, cold temperature and low humidity in these times might provide conducive environmental conditions for prolonged viral survival in these regions concentrated with bats. The widespread existence of these bat-carried or -released viruses might have an easier time in breaking through human defenses when harsh winter makes human bodies more vulnerable. Once succeeding in making some initial human infections, spreading of the disease was made convenient with increased social gathering and holiday travel. These natural and social factors influenced the general progression and trajectory of the SARS epidemiology. However, some unique factors might also contribute to the origination of SARS in Wuhan. These factors are discussed in different scenarios in order to promote more research for achieving final validation.

positive: The most eagerly awaited summer of the Anthropocene: A perspective of SARS-CoV-2 decay and seasonal change Abstract To date, the world perhaps has never waited for the summer so impatiently in the entire Anthropocene, owing to the debate whether increasing temperature and humidity will decrease the environmental endurance of SARS-CoV-2. We present the perspective on the seasonal change on SARS-CoV-2 decay and COVID-19 spread. Our arguments are based on: i) structural similarity of coronavirus with several enteric viruses, and its vulnerability; ii) reports related to decay of those similar transmissible gastroenteritis viruses (TGEV) like norovirus and iii) improvement in the human immunity during summer with respect to winter. We present reasons why we can be optimistic about the slowdown of corona in the upcoming summer.

positive: Estimated Effects of Projected Climate Change on the Basic Reproductive Number of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes scapularis Background: The extent to which climate change may affect human health by increasing risk from vector-borne diseases has been under considerable debate. Objectives: We quantified potential effects of future climate change on the basic reproduction number (R(0)) of the tick vector of Lyme disease, Ixodes scapularis, and explored their importance for Lyme disease risk, and for vector-borne diseases in general. Methods: We applied observed temperature data for North America and projected temperatures using regional climate models to drive an I. scapularis population model to hindcast recent, and project future, effects of climate warming on R(0). Modeled R(0) increases were compared with R(0) ranges for pathogens and parasites associated with variations in key ecological and epidemiological factors (obtained by literature review) to assess their epidemiological importance. Results: R(0) for I. scapularis in North America increased during the years 1971–2010 in spatio-temporal patterns consistent with observations. Increased temperatures due to projected climate change increased R(0) by factors (2–5 times in Canada and 1.5–2 times in the United States), comparable to observed ranges of R(0) for pathogens and parasites due to variations in strains, geographic locations, epidemics, host and vector densities, and control efforts. Conclusions: Climate warming may have co-driven the emergence of Lyme disease in northeastern North America, and in the future may drive substantial disease spread into new geographic regions and increase tick-borne disease risk where climate is currently suitable. Our findings highlight the potential for climate change to have profound effects on vectors and vector-borne diseases, and the need to refocus efforts to understand these effects. Citation: Ogden NH, Radojević M, Wu X, Duvvuri VR, Leighton PA, Wu J. 2014. Estimated effects of projected climate change on the basic reproductive number of the Lyme disease vector Ixodes scapularis. Environ Health Perspect 122:631–638; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307799

positive: Containing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Meteorological factors and control strategies Abstract The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally and the meteorological factors vary greatly across the world. Understanding the effect of meteorological factors and control strategies on COVID-19 transmission is critical to contain the epidemic. Using individual-level data in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and the number of confirmed cases in other regions, we explore the effect of temperature, relative humidity, and control measures on the spread of COVID-19. We find that high temperature mitigates the transmission of the disease. High relative humidity promotes COVID-19 transmission when temperature is low, but tends to reduce transmission when temperature is high. Implementing classical control measures can dramatically slow the spread of the disease. However, due to the occurrence of pre-symptomatic infections, the effect of the measures to shorten treatment time is markedly reduced and the importance of contact quarantine and social distancing increases.

positive: The higher temperature and ultraviolet, the lower COVID-19 prevalence – Meta-regression of data from large U.S. cities

positive: A rate equation approach to model the denaturation or replication behavior of the SARS coronavirus As a newly emerging virus, little is known about the SARS coronavirus, whose outbreak has brought away several hundred people’s lives over the world in the year of 2003 and is seriously imperiling the human health. Revealing the denaturation and replication mechanisms of SARS coronavirus has great importance for successfully fighting SARS. However, experiments related to SARS coronavirus are extremely dangerous and therefore restricted only to certain specific labs with high safety standard. Clearly, predicting the behaviors of SARS coronavirus in a wide variety of environmental conditions, which are not easily accessible, are thus critically necessary. In this study, we proposed to quantify the survival time of SARS coronavirus either in vitro or in vivo, through introducing thermal rate process models established from the well-known Arrhenius law. The complex physical and chemical behaviors of the SARS coronavirus can then be attributed to its activation energy, frequency factor, damage function as well as the surrounding environmental conditions. Based on the first data on stability and resistance of SARS coronavirus measured by members of WHO laboratory network, the rate coefficients involved in the above equations were estimated for the first time. Predictions on the survival time of SARS coronavirus in different temperature scale were then performed. It was found theoretically that, such survival time falls in an extremely wide range, say from several seconds in high temperature to an almost infinitely long time in a low temperature environment, which has already or is being supported by the currently available tests data. Applications of the present theory to interpret several existing phenomena were presented and their implementations in developing new technical ways for SARS prevention and clinical therapy were discussed. Uncertainties involved in the theoretical models were also analyzed and predicted. Parametric studies were performed to test the effects of the rate coefficients to the survival time of SARS coronavirus. Some important factors, which can significantly vary the denaturation or replication process of SARS coronavirus were pointed out. Through regulating the parameters involved in the equation, certain potential therapies either through drug delivery or engineering approach to treat the SARS disease can possibly be established. Extension of the present model for further studies was also suggested. This study opens a new theoretical way for probing into the complex behaviors of SARS coronavirus. Modellierung der Denaturierung oder Repliziryng von SARS-Korona-Viren Zusammenfassung Der Kenntnisstand über die Eigenschaften des in 2003 neu aufgetretenen SARS Korona Virus, der einige Hundert Menschenleben gekostet hat, ist relativ gering. Die Ermittlung des Denaturierungs- und Replizierungsmechanismuses des SARS Virus ist für seine Bekämpfung von hoher Bedeutung. Experimentelle Untersuchungen an diesem extrem gefährlichen Virus dürfen nur durch Laboratorien mit einem hohen Sicherheitsstandard erfolgen. Die Vorhersage des Verhaltens des SARS Virus in unterschiedlichen Umgebungsbedingungen ist dabei erforderlich. In der vorliegenden Studie wird die überlebensdauer des Virus unter Labor- und realen Bedingungen durch Anwendung der bekannten Arrhenius-Beziehung für temperaturabhängige Vorgänge ermittelt. Das physikalische und chemische Verhalten des SARS Virus wird anhand der zugrundeliegenden Modell- Parameter beschrieben. Basierend auf den ersten Messungen von Mitgliedern des WHO-laboratory-network über die Stabilität und Widerstandsfähigkeit des Virus wurden erstmalig die Geschwindigkeitskoeffizienten des Berechnungsmodells bestimmt. Vorhersagen der Überlebensdauer des SARS-Virus unter unterschiedlichen Temperaturbedingungen wurden ausgeführt. Das sich hieraus ergebende, sehr unterschiedliche Ausmaß der Überlebensfähigkeit in Abhängigkeit der Umgebungstemperatur ist durch den Vergleich mit verfügbaren experimentellen Ergebnissen bestätigt worden. Die Anwendung der vorgestellten Modellierung zur Interpretation realer Phänomene und zur Entwicklung technischer Maßnahmen zur Vorbeugung und klinischen Therapierung von SARS wird diskutiert. Der Einfluß von Unsicherheiten des Modells wird analysiert und abgeschätzt. Parametrische Studien sind durchgeführt worden, um den Einfluß der Geschwindigkeitskoeffizienten auf die Überlebensdauer des SARS Virus darzustellen. Einige wichtige Einflußgrößen auf die Denaturierung und Replikationsfähigkeit des SARS Virus werden aufgezeigt. Durch eine Variation der Modellparameter kann die potentielle Wirksamkeit medikamentöser oder physikalischer Therapien abgeschätzt werden. Erweiterungsmöglichkeiten des vorgestellten Modells werden vorgeschlagen. Die vorliegende Studie ermöglicht neue, theoretische Vorgehensweisen zur Untersuchung des komplexen Verhaltensmusters des SARS Virus.

positive: Enteric involvement of coronaviruses: is faecal–oral transmission of SARS-CoV-2 possible?

positive: Neural network based country wise risk prediction of COVID-19 The recent worldwide outbreak of the novel corona-virus (COVID-19) opened up new challenges to the research community. Artificial intelligence (AI) driven methods can be useful to predict the parameters, risks, and effects of such an epidemic. Such predictions can be helpful to control and prevent the spread of such diseases. The main challenges of applying AI is the small volume of data and the uncertain nature. Here, we propose a shallow Long short-term memory (LSTM) based neural network to predict the risk category of a country. We have used a Bayesian optimization framework to optimized and automatically design country-specific networks. We have combined the trend data and weather data together for the prediction. The results show that the proposed pipeline outperforms against state-of-the-art methods for 170 countries data and can be a useful tool for such risk categorization. The tool can be used to predict long-duration outbreak of such an epidemic such that we can take preventive steps earlier.

positive: Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Importance: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. Objective: To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. Results: The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m3). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80â¯757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

positive: Changes in temperature alter susceptibility to a virus following a host shift Host shifts - where a pathogen jumps between different host species - are an important source of emerging infectious disease. With ongoing climate change there is an increasing need to understand the effect changes in temperature may have on emerging infectious disease. We investigated whether species’ susceptibilities change with temperature and ask if susceptibility is greatest at different temperatures in different species. We infected 45 species of Drosophilidae with an RNA virus and measured how viral load changes with temperature. We found the host phylogeny explained a large proportion of the variation in viral load at each temperature, with strong phylogenetic correlations between viral loads across temperature. The variance in viral load increased with temperature, whilst the mean viral load did not, such that as temperature increased the most susceptible species become more susceptible, and the least susceptible less so. We found no significant relationship between a species’ susceptibility across temperatures and proxies for thermal optima; critical thermal maximum and minimum or basal metabolic rate. These results suggest that whilst the rank order of species susceptibilities can remain the same with changes in temperature, the likelihood of host shifts into a given species may increase or decrease. Author Summary Emerging infectious diseases are often the result of a host shift, where a pathogen jumps from one host species into another. Understanding the factors underlying host shifts is a major goal for infectious disease researchers. This effort has been further complicated by the fact that host-parasite interactions are now taking place in a period of unprecedented global climatic warming. Here, we ask how host shifts are affected by temperature by carrying out experimental infections using an RNA virus across a wide range of related species, at three different temperatures. We find that as temperature increases the most susceptible species become more susceptible, and the least susceptible less so. This has important consequences for our understanding of host shift events in a changing climate, and suggests that temperature changes may affect the likelihood of a host shift into certain species.

positive: Meteorological Conditions and Covid-19 in Large U.S. Cities To determine whether prevalence of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is modulated by meteorological conditions, we herein conducted meta-regression of data in large U.S. cities. We selected 33 large U.S. cities with a population of >500,000. The integrated numbers of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the country to which the city belongs on 14 May 2020, the estimated population in 2019 in the country, and monthly meteorological conditions at the city for 4 months (from January to April 2020) were obtained. Meteorological conditions consisted of mean temperature (F), total precipitation (inch), mean wind speed (MPH), mean sky cover, and mean relative humidity (%). Monthly data for 4 months were averaged or integrated. The Covid-19 prevalence was defined as the integrated number of Covid-19 cases divided by the population. Random-effects meta-regression was performed by means of OpenMetaAnalyst. In a meta-regression graph, Covid-19 prevalence (plotted as the logarithm transformed prevalence on the y-axis) was depicted as a function of a given factor (plotted as a meteorological datum on the x-axis). A slope of the meta-regression line was significantly negative (coefficient, -0.069; P < 0.001) for the mean temperature and significantly positive for the mean wind speed (coefficient, 0.174; P = 0.027) and the sky cover (coefficient, 2.220; P = 0.023). In conclusion, lower temperature and higher wind speed/sky cover may be associated with higher Covid-19 prevalence, which should be confirmed by further epidemiological researches adjusting for various risk and protective factors (in addition to meteorological conditions) of Covid-19.

positive: Possible environmental effects on the spread of COVID-19 in China Abstract At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, designated as SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China and was identified as the causal pathogen of COVID-19. The epidemic scale of COVID-19 has increased dramatically, with confirmed cases increasing across China and globally. Understanding the potential affecting factors involved in COVID-19 transmission will be of great significance in containing the spread of the epidemic. Environmental and meteorological factors might impact the occurrence of COVID-19, as these have been linked to various diseases, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), whose causative pathogens belong to the same virus family as SARS-CoV-2. We collected daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air quality and meteorological variables of 33 locations in China for the outbreak period of 29 January 2020 to 15 February 2020. The association between air quality index (AQI) and confirmed cases was estimated through a Poisson regression model, and the effects of temperature and humidity on the AQI-confirmed cases association were analyzed. The results show that the effect of AQI on confirmed cases associated with an increase in each unit of AQI was statistically significant in several cities. The lag effect of AQI on the confirmed cases was statistically significant on lag day 1 (relative risk (RR) = 1.0009, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0004, 1.0013), day 2 (RR = 1.0007, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012) and day 3 (RR = 1.0008, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012). The AQI effect on the confirmed cases might be stronger in the temperature range of 10 °C ≤ T < 20 °C than in other temperature ranges, while the RR of COVID-19 transmission associated with AQI was higher in the relative humidity (RH) range of 10% ≤ RH < 20%. Results may suggest an enhanced impact of AQI on the COVID-19 spread under low RH.

positive: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean region: a look from its economic conditions, climate and air pollution indicators We have evaluated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 through Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region by means of a correlation between climate and air pollution indicators, namely, average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, average relative humidity, wind speed, and air pollution indicators PM(10), PM(2.5), and NO(2) with the COVID-19 daily new cases and deaths. The study focuses in the following LAC cities: Mexico City (Mexico), Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic), San Juan (Puerto Rico), Bogotá (Colombia), Guayaquil (Ecuador), Manaus (Brazil), Lima (Perú), Santiago (Chile), São Paulo (Brazil) and Buenos Aires (Argentina). The results show that average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality were significantly associated with the spread of COVID-19 in LAC. Additionally, humidity, wind speed and rainfall showed a significant relationship with daily cases, total cases and mortality for various cities. Income inequality and poverty levels were also considered as a variable for qualitative analysis. Our findings suggest that and income inequality and poverty levels in the cities analyzed were related to the spread of COVID-19 positive and negative, respectively. These results might help decision-makers to design future strategies to tackle the spread of COVID-19 in LAC and around the world.

positive: Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID Abstract This study has two goals. The first is to explain the geo-environmental determinants of the accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 in Italy that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats having accelerated viral infectivity in society. Using data on N = 55 Italian province capitals, and data of infected individuals at as of April 7th, 2020, results reveal that the accelerate and vast diffusion of COVID-19 in North Italy has a high association with air pollution of cities measured with days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 μm or less in diameter) or ozone in previous years. In particular, hinterland cities with average higher number of days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (and a low intensity of wind speed) have a very high number of infected people on 7th April 2020 (arithmetic mean about 2200 infected, with average polluted days greater than 80), than coastal cities also having days of exceeding the limits set for PM10 or ozone but with high intensity of wind speed (arithmetic mean about 944.70 infected individuals, with about 60 average polluted days); moreover, cities having more than 100 days of air pollution (exceeding the limits set for PM10), they have a very high average number of infected people (about 3350 infected individuals, 7th April 2020), whereas cities having less than 100 days of air pollution, they have a lower average number of infected individuals (about 1014). The findings here also suggest that to minimize the impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year in which Italian provincial capitals can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological conditions, is about 48 days. Moreover, results here reveal that the explanatory variable of air pollution in cities under study seems to be a more important predictor in the initial phase of diffusion (on 17th March 2020, b1 = 1.27, p < 0.001) than interpersonal contacts (b2 = 0.31, p < 0.05). In the second phase of maturity of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, air pollution reduces intensity (on 7th April 2020 with b′1 = 0.81, p < 0.001) also because of indirect effect of lockdown, whereas coefficient of transmission by interpersonal contacts has stability (b′2 = 0.31, p < 0.01). This result reveals that accelerated transmissions dynamics of COVID-19 is due to mainly to the mechanism of “air pollution-to-human transmission” rather than “human-to-human transmission”. Overall, then, transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, such as COVID-19, is due to systemic causes: general factors that are the same for all regions (e.g., biological characteristics of virus, incubation period, etc.) and specific factors which are different for each region (e.g., complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity) and health level of individuals (habits, immune system, age, sex, etc.). Lessons learned for COVID-19 in the case study of Italy suggest that a proactive strategy to cope with future epidemics is to also apply especially an environmental and sustainable policy based on reduction of levels of air pollution mainly in hinterland and polluting cities- having low wind speed, high percentage of moisture and fog days-that seem to have an environment that may damage immune system of people and foster a fast transmission dynamics of viral infectivity in society. Hence, in the presence of polluting industrialization in regions that can trigger the mechanism of air pollution-to-human transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, this study must conclude that a comprehensive strategy to prevent future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be also designed in environmental and socioeconomic terms, that is also based on sustainability science and environmental science, and not only in terms of biology, healthcare and health sector.

positive: Modeling the role of respiratory droplets in Covid-19 type pandemics In this paper, we develop a first principles model that connects respiratory droplet physics with the evolution of a pandemic such as the ongoing Covid-19. The model has two parts. First, we model the growth rate of the infected population based on a reaction mechanism. The advantage of modeling the pandemic using the reaction mechanism is that the rate constants have sound physical interpretation. The infection rate constant is derived using collision rate theory and shown to be a function of the respiratory droplet lifetime. In the second part, we have emulated the respiratory droplets responsible for disease transmission as salt solution droplets and computed their evaporation time, accounting for droplet cooling, heat and mass transfer, and finally, crystallization of the dissolved salt. The model output favourably compares with the experimentally obtained evaporation characteristics of levitated droplets of pure water and salt solution, respectively, ensuring fidelity of the model. The droplet evaporation/desiccation time is, indeed, dependent on ambient temperature and is also a strong function of relative humidity. The multi-scale model thus developed and the firm theoretical underpinning that connects the two scales—macro-scale pandemic dynamics and micro-scale droplet physics—thus could emerge as a powerful tool in elucidating the role of environmental factors on infection spread through respiratory droplets.

positive: Temperature and precipitation associate with Covid-19 new daily cases: A correlation study between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Oslo, Norway Abstract This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in the capital city of Norway, Oslo. This study employed a secondary data analysis of covid-19 surveillance data from the Norwegian public health institute and weather data from the Norwegian Meteorological institute. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), normal temperature (°C), precipitation level (mm) and wind speed (m/s). Since normality was not fulfilled, a non-parametric correlation test was used for data analysis. Maximum temperature (r = 0.347; p = .005), normal temperature(r = 0.293; p = .019), and precipitation level (r = −0.285; p = .022) were significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic. The finding serves as an input to a strategy making against the prevention of covid-19 as the country prepare to enter into a new weather season.

positive: Impact of mitigating interventions and temperature on the instantaneous reproduction number in the COVID-19 epidemic among 30 US metropolitan areas Background: After more than three months into the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, over 170,000 people had died worldwide. The current study aims to evaluate how mitigating interventions affected the epidemic process in the 30 largest metropolitan areas in the US and whether temperature played a role in the epidemic process. Methods: Publicly available COVID-19 cases and deaths data and weather data were analyzed at the metropolitan level. The time-varying reproductive numbers were used to explore the trends. Results: We found that virus transmissibility, measured by instantaneous reproduction number (Rt), had declined significantly since the end of March for all areas and almost all of them reached a Rt of 1 or below by April 15, 2020. Cities with warm temperature tended to have a lower peak Rt than that of cities with cold temperature. However, large geographic variations exist. Conclusions: Though the end of epidemic of COVID-19 is near, temperature may have some weak effects on the virus transmission, and the return of the coronavirus outbreak is still possible.

positive: Large-scale Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria: quantifying the association between disease reproduction number and local rainfall Lassa fever (LF) is increasingly recognised as an important rodent-borne viral haemorrhagic fever presenting a severe public health threat to sub-Saharan West Africa. In 2017–18, LF caused an unprecedented epidemic in Nigeria and the situation was worsening in 2018–19. This work aims to study the epidemiological features of epidemics in different Nigerian regions and quantify the association between reproduction number (R) and state rainfall. We quantify the infectivity of LF by the reproduction numbers estimated from four different growth models: the Richards, three-parameter logistic, Gompertz and Weibull growth models. LF surveillance data are used to fit the growth models and estimate the Rs and epidemic turning points (τ) in different regions at different time periods. Cochran's Q test is further applied to test the spatial heterogeneity of the LF epidemics. A linear random-effect regression model is adopted to quantify the association between R and state rainfall with various lag terms. Our estimated Rs for 2017–18 (1.33 with 95% CI 1.29–1.37) was significantly higher than those for 2016–17 (1.23 with 95% CI: (1.22, 1.24)) and 2018–19 (ranged from 1.08 to 1.36). We report spatial heterogeneity in the Rs for epidemics in different Nigerian regions. We find that a one-unit (mm) increase in average monthly rainfall over the past 7 months could cause a 0.62% (95% CI 0.20%–1.05%)) rise in R. There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the LF epidemics in different Nigerian regions. We report clear evidence of rainfall impacts on LF epidemics in Nigeria and quantify the impact.

positive: Emerging and Re-emerging Pathogens and Diseases, and Health Consequences of a Changing Climate

positive: Higher Air Temperature, Pressure, and Ultraviolet Are Associated with Less Covid-19 Incidence A recent study from China suggests that high temperature and ultraviolet (UV) radiation cannot decrease the epidemics of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). To determine whether COVID-19 incidence is modulated by meteorological factors, meta-regression of Japanese prefectural data was herein conducted. We extracted 1) cumulative numbers of confirmed Covid-19 patients in each Japanese prefecture from January to April 2020; 2) populations per 1-km2 inhabitable area in each prefecture in 2020; and 3) meteorological factors at each prefectural capital city from January to April 2020. Meteorological factors included monthly mean air temperature (degree Celsius), wind speed (m/s), sea level air pressure (hPa), relative humidity (%), and percentage of possible sunshine (%); monthly total of sunshine duration (h) and precipitation (mm); and monthly mean daily maximum ultraviolet (UV) index. To adjust for prefectural population density, we defined the incidence of Covid-19 as the cumulative number of Covid-19 patients divided by the population per 100-km2 inhabitable area. Random-effects meta-regression was performed, and its graph depicted Covid-19 incidence (plotted as the logarithm transformed incidence on the y-axis) as a function of a given meteorological factor (plotted on the x-axis). A slope of the meta-regression line was significantly negative as a function of the mean air temperature (coefficient, -0.127; P = 0.023), the mean sea level air pressure (coefficient, -0.351; P < 0.001), and the mean daily maximum UV index (coefficient, -0.001; P = 0.012) which indicated that Covid-19 incidence decreased significantly as air temperature, air pressure, and UV increased. In conclusion, higher air temperature, air pressure, and UV may be associated with less Covid-19 incidence.

positive: Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of non-pharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction via susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest, without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

positive: The most eagerly awaited summer of the Anthropocene: A perspective of SARS-CoV-2 decay and seasonal change To date, the world perhaps has never waited for the summer so impatiently in the entire Anthropocene, owing to the debate whether increasing temperature and humidity will decrease the environmental endurance of SARS-CoV-2. We present the perspective on the seasonal change on SARS-CoV-2 decay and COVID-19 spread. Our arguments are based on: i) structural similarity of coronavirus with several enteric viruses, and its vulnerability; ii) reports related to decay of those similar transmissible gastroenteritis viruses (TGEV) like norovirus and iii) improvement in the human immunity during summer with respect to winter. We present reasons why we can be optimistic about the slowdown of corona in the upcoming summer.

positive: Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions

positive: Several countries in one: a mathematical modeling analysis for COVID-19 in inner Brazil Early 2020 and the world experiences its very first pandemic of globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-Cov-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas is a concern. In a huge and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for an inner Brazil and what can we do to control infection transmission in each one of these locations? In this paper, a mathematical model was developed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by the intensity and type of control measures. Mitigation strategies rely on social distancing of all individuals, and detection and isolation of infected ones. The model shows that control effort varies among cities. The social distancing is the most efficient method to control disease transmission but improving detection and isolation of infected individuals can help loosening this mitigation strategy.

positive: Association between climate variables and global transmission oF SARS-CoV-2 In this study, we aimed at analyzing the associations between transmission of and deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2 and meteorological variables, such as average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation. Two outcome measures were considered, with the first aiming to study SARS-CoV-2 infections and the second aiming to study COVID-19 mortality. Daily data as well as data on SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 mortality obtained between December 1, 2019 and March 28, 2020 were collected from weather stations around the world. The country's population density and time of exposure to the disease were used as control variables. Finally, a month dummy variable was added. Daily data by country were analyzed using the panel data model. An increase in the average daily temperature by one degree Fahrenheit reduced the number of cases by approximately 6.4 cases/day. There was a negative correlation between the average temperature per country and the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections. This association remained strong even with the incorporation of additional variables and controls (maximum temperature, average temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) and fixed country effects. There was a positive correlation between precipitation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Countries with higher rainfall measurements showed an increase in disease transmission. For each average inch/day, there was an increase of 56.01 cases/day. COVID-19 mortality showed no significant association with temperature.

positive: Web-based forecasting system for the airborne spread of livestock infectious disease using computational fluid dynamics Livestock infectious diseases, such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), cause substantial economic damage to livestock farms and their related industries. Among various causes of disease spread, airborne dispersion has previously been considered to be an important factor that could not be controlled by preventive measures to stop the spread of disease that focus on direct and indirect contact. Forecasting and predicting airborne virus spread are important to make time for developing strategies and to minimise the damage of the disease. To predict the airborne spread of the disease a modelling approach is important since field experiments using sensors are ineffective because of the rarefied concentrations of virus in the air. The simulation of airborne spread during past outbreaks required improvement both for farmers and for policy decision makers. In this study a free license computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code was used to simulate airborne virus spread. Forecasting data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was directly connected in the developed model for real-time forecasting for 48 h in three-hourly intervals. To reduce computation time, scalar transport for airborne virus spread was simulated based on a database for the CFD computed airflow in the investigated area using representative wind conditions. The simulation results, and the weather data were then used to make a database for a web-based forecasting system that could be accessible to users.

positive: The Weather Impacts the Outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China Recent literature has suggested that climate conditions have considerably significant influences on the transmission of coronavirus COVID-19. However, there is a lack of comprehensive study that investigates the relationships between multiple weather factors and the development of COVID-19 pandemic while excluding the impact of social factors. In this paper, we study the relationships between six main weather factors and the infection statistics of COVID-19 on 250 cities in Mainland China. Our correlation analysis using weather and infection statistics indicates that all the studied weather factors are correlated with the spread of COVID-19, where precipitation shows the strongest correlation. We also build a weather-aware predictive model that forecasts the number of infected cases should there be a second wave of the outbreak in Mainland China. Our predicted results show that cities located in different geographical areas are likely to be challenged with the second wave of COVID-19 at very different time periods and the severity of the outbreak varies to a large degree, in correspondence with the varying weather conditions.

positive: The correlation between the spread of COVID-19 infections and weather variables in 30 Chinese provinces and the impact of Chinese government mitigation plans On February 1, 2020, China announced a novel coronavirus CoVID-19 outbreak to the public. CoVID-19 was classified as an epidemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). Although the disease was discovered and concentrated in Hubei Province, China, it was exported to all of the other Chinese provinces and spread globally. As of this writing, all plans have failed to contain the novel coronavirus disease, and it has continued to spread to the rest of the world. This study aimed to explore and interpret the effect of environmental and metrological variables on the spread of coronavirus disease in 30 provinces in China, as well as to investigate the impact of new China regulations and plans to mitigate further spread of infections. This article forecasts the size of the disease spreading based on time series forecasting. The growing size of CoVID-19 in China for the next 210 days is estimated by predicting the expected confirmed and recovered cases. The results revealed that weather conditions largely influence the spread of coronavirus in most of the Chinese provinces. This study has determined that increasing temperature and short-wave radiation would positively increase the number of confirmed cases, mortality rate, and recovered cases. The findings of this study agree with the results of our previous study.

positive: Associations of ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors with COVID-19 transmission in 31 Chinese provinces: A time-series study Background: Evidence regarding the effects of ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission is limited. Objectives: To explore the associations of air pollutants and meteorological factors with COVID-19 confirmed cases across 31 Chinese provinces during the outbreak period. Methods: The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air pollutant concentrations and meteorological factors in 31 Chinese provinces from January 25 to February 29, 2020 were extracted from authoritative electronic databases. The associations were estimated for a single-day lag (lag0-lag6) as well as moving averages lag (lag01-lag05) using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), adjusted for time trends, day of the week, holidays and meteorological variables. Region-specific analyses and meta-analysis were conducted in five selected regions with diverse air pollution levels and weather conditions. Nonlinear exposure-response analyses were performed. Results: We examined 77,578 COVID-19 confirmed cases across 31 Chinese provinces during the study period. An increase of each interquartile range in PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO at lag4 corresponded to 1.40 (1.37-1.43), 1.35 (1.32-1.37), 1.01 (1.00-1.02), 1.08 (1.07-1.10), 1.28 (1.27-1.29) and 1.26 (1.24-1.28) odds ratios (ORs) of daily COVID-19 confirmed new cases, respectively. For 1 oc, 1% and 1 m/s increase in temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity, the ORs were 0.97 (0.97-0.98), 0.96 (0.96-0.97), and 0.94 (0.92-0.95), respectively. The estimates of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and all meteorological factors remained statistically significant after meta-analysis for the five selected regions. The exposure-response relationships showed that higher concentrations of air pollutants and lower meteorological factors were associated with daily COVID-19 confirmed new cases increasing. Conclusions: Higher air pollutant concentrations and lower temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity may favor COVID-19 transmission. As summer months are arriving in the Northern Hemisphere, the environmental factors and implementation of public health control measures may play an optimistic role in controlling COVID-19 epidemic.

positive: Seasonality of infectious diseases and severe acute respiratory syndrome–what we don't know can hurt us Summary The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus caused severe disease and heavy economic losses before apparently coming under complete control. Our understanding of the forces driving seasonal disappearance and recurrence of infectious diseases remains fragmentary, thus limiting any predictions about whether, or when, SARS will recur. It is true that most established respiratory pathogens of human beings recur in wintertime, but a new appreciation for the high burden of disease in tropical areas reinforces questions about explanations resting solely on cold air or low humidity. Seasonal variation in host physiology may also contribute. Newly emergent zoonotic diseases such as ebola or pandemic strains of influenza have recurred in unpredictable patterns. Most established coronaviruses exhibit winter seasonality, with a unique ability to establish persistent infections in a minority of infected animals. Because SARS coronavirus RNA can be detected in the stool of some individuals for at least 9 weeks, recurrence of SARS from persistently shedding human or animal reservoirs is biologically plausible.

positive: Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time and the greatest challenge facing the world. Meteorological parameters are reportedly crucial factors affecting respiratory infectious disease epidemics; however, the effect of meteorological parameters on COVID-19 remains controversial. This study investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on daily new cases and daily new deaths of COVID-19, which has useful implications for policymakers and the public. Daily data on meteorological conditions, new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 were collected for 166 countries (excluding China) as of March 27, 2020. Log-linear generalized additive model was used to analyze the effects of temperature and relative humidity on daily new cases and daily new deaths of COVID-19, with potential confounders controlled for, including wind speed, median age of the national population, Global Health Security Index, Human Development Index and population density. Our findings revealed that temperature and relative humidity were both negatively related to daily new cases and deaths. A 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 3.08% (95% CI: 1.53%, 4.63%) reduction in daily new cases and a 1.19% (95% CI: 0.44%, 1.95%) reduction in daily new deaths, whereas a 1% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 0.85% (95% CI: 0.51%, 1.19%) reduction in daily new cases and a 0.51% (95% CI: 0.34%, 0.67%) reduction in daily new deaths. The results remained robust when different lag structures and the sensitivity analysis were used. These findings provide preliminary evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic may be partially suppressed with temperature and humidity increases. However, active measures must be taken to control the source of infection, block transmission and prevent further spread of COVID-19.

positive: Meteorological impact on the COVID-19 pandemic: A study across eight severely affected regions in South America The role of meteorological factors in the transmission of the COVID-19 still needs to be determined. In this study, the daily new cases of the eight severely affected regions in four countries of South America and their corresponding meteorological data (average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average wind speed, visibility, absolute humidity) were collected. Daily number of confirmed and incubative cases, as well as time-dependent reproductive number (R(t)) was calculated to indicate the transmission of the diseases in the population. Spearman's correlation coefficients were assessed to show the correlation between meteorological factors and daily confirmed cases, daily incubative cases, as well as Rt. In particular, the results showed that there was a highly significant correlation between daily incubative cases and absolute humidity throughout the selected regions. Multiple linear regression model further confirmed the negative correlation between absolute humidity and incubative cases. The absolute humidity is predicted to show a decreasing trend in the coming months from the meteorological data of recent three years. Our results suggest the necessity of continuous controlling policy in these areas and some other complementary strategies to mitigate the contagious rate of the COVID-19.

positive: A spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of temperature on COVID-19 early evolution in Spain Abstract The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease, was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This new pathogen has spread rapidly around more than 200 countries, in which Spain has one of the world's highest mortality rates so far. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that weather conditions may affect the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases. However, some contradictory studies have also been reported in the same research line. In addition, many of these studies have been performed considering only meteorological factors, which can limit the reliability of the results. Herein, we report a spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) on the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the provinces of Spain. Non-meteorological factors such as population density, population by age, number of travellers and number of companies have also been considered for the analysis. No evidence suggesting a reduction in COVID-19 cases at warmer mean, minimum and maximum temperatures has been found. Nevertheless, these results need to be interpreted cautiously given the existing uncertainty about COVID-19 data, and should not be extrapolated to temperature ranges other than those analysed here for the early evolution period.

positive: Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence? Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking—at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and ‘global change’ that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.

positive: 14 Climate change and infectious diseases Publisher Summary The worldwide upturn in the occurrence of both new (emerging) and reemerging or spreading infectious diseases highlights the importance of underlying environmental and social conditions as determinants of the generation, spread, and impact of infectious diseases in human populations. Human ecology is undergoing rapid transition. This encompasses urbanization, rising consumerism, changes in working conditions, population aging, marked increases in mobility, changes in culture and behavior, evolving health-care technologies, and other factors. Global climate change is becoming a further, and major, large-scale influence on the pattern of infectious disease transmission. It is likely to become increasingly important over at least the next halfcentury, as the massive, highinertial, and somewhat unpredictable process of climate change continues. The many ways in which climate change does and will influence infectious diseases are subject to a plethora of modifying influences by other factors and processes: constitutional characteristics of hosts, vectors and pathogens; the prevailing ambient conditions; and coexistent changes in other social, economic, behavioral, and environmental factors. This global anthropogenic process, climate change, along with other unprecedented global environmental changes, is beginning to destabilize and weaken the planet's life-support systems. Infectious diseases, unlike other diseases, depend on the biology and behavior—each often climate-sensitive—of two or more parties. Hence, these diseases will be particularly susceptible to changes as the world's climate and its climate-sensitive geochemical and ecological systems undergo change over the coming decades.

positive: Catastrophe évolutive, quelle pourrait-être l’influence des conditions météorologiques sur l’évolution de la pandémie CoViD-19? Résumé Une des préoccupations classiques de la gestion des catastrophes est d’en connaître l’évolutivité. Quelle est celle de la CoViD-19? Un questionnaire a été adressé à des confrères de 14 pays situés dans la zone chaude intertropicale pour établir une comparaison avec deux pays tempérés. Nous avons pu disposer des cas relevés et des conditions météorologiques de six îles françaises et de six pays africains francophones pour lesquels les mesures barrières gouvernementales ont été identiques à celles prises en Italie et en France. Le rôle positif de la température qui diminue la diffusion de la CoViD-19 et sa létalité a pu être mis en évidence. Dans les îles tropicales françaises, les cas importés (avions, bateaux) ont représenté en moyenne 33% de la totalité des cas sans influence sur la propagation virale, restée faible. La saisonnalité de la CoViD-19 doit faire craindre son retour à l’entrée de l’hiver et inciter à mieux préparer personnels et moyens. Summary One of the classic factors in disaster management is knowing its scalability. What is it in the case of CoViD-19? A questionnaire was sent to our colleagues from 14 countries located in the intertropical hot zone to establish a comparison with two temperate countries. We were able to collect the recorded cases and weather conditions from six French islands and six French-speaking African countries for which the government barrier measures were identical to those taken in Italy and France. We highlighted the positive role of temperature, which decreases the diffusion and the lethality of CoViD-19. In the French tropical islands, imported cases (by air, ships) represented a large percentage of cases (33% on average) which had no influence on the viral spread, which remained low. The seasonality of CoViD-19 should raise concern for its return at the start of winter and encourage better preparation of personnel and resources.

positive: Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January–February 2020 Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops. Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5–7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios. Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single confirmed case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 confirmed cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from −28.0°C to 30.1°C, minimum daily temperature from −42.4°C to 23.0°C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm(−2) and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence. Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

positive: Relationship between COVID-19 and weather: Case study in a tropical country This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between weather factors (temperature, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, and rainfall) and COVID-19 infection in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Solar radiation showed a strong (-0.609, p < 0.01) negative correlation with the incidence of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). Temperature (maximum and average) and wind speed showed negative correlation (p < 0.01). Therefore, in this studied tropical state, high solar radiation can be indicated as the main climatic factor that suppress the spread of COVID-19. High temperatures, and wind speed also are potential factors. Therefore, the findings of this study show the ability to improve the organizational system of strategies to combat the pandemic in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and other tropical countries around the word.

positive: No Evidence for Temperature-Dependence of the COVID-19 Epidemic The pandemic of the COVID-19 disease extended from China across the north-temperate zone, and more recently to the tropics and southern hemisphere. We find no evidence that spread rates decline with temperatures above 20 oC, suggesting that the COVID-19 disease is unlikely to behave as a seasonal respiratory virus.

positive: Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil There is evidence that COVID-19, the disease caused by the betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is sensitive to environmental conditions. However, such conditions often correlate with demographic and socioeconomic factors at larger spatial extents, which could confound this inference. We evaluated the effect of meteorological conditions (temperature, solar radiation, air humidity and precipitation) on 292 daily records of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 27 Brazilian capital cities during the 1st month of the outbreak, while controlling for an indicator of the number of tests, the number of arriving flights, population density, proportion of elderly people and average income. Apart from increasing with time, the number of confirmed cases was mainly related to the number of arriving flights and population density, increasing with both factors. However, after accounting for these effects, the disease was shown to be temperature sensitive: there were more cases in colder cities and days, and cases accumulated faster at lower temperatures. Our best estimate indicates that a 1 °C increase in temperature has been associated with a decrease in confirmed cases of 8%. The quality of the data and unknowns limit the analysis, but the study reveals an urgent need to understand more about the environmental sensitivity of the disease to predict demands on health services in different regions and seasons.

positive: A four year seasonal survey of the relationship between outdoor climate and epidemiology of viral respiratory tract infections in a temperate climate Abstract Background The relation between weather conditions, viral transmission and seasonal activity of respiratory viruses is not fully understood. Objectives To investigate the impact of outdoor weather in a temperate climate setting on the seasonal epidemiology of viruses causing respiratory tract infections, particularly influenza A (IFA). Study design In total, 20,062 clinical nasopharyngeal swab samples referred for detection of respiratory pathogens using a multiplex PCR panel, between October 2010 and July 2013, were included. Results of PCR detection were compared with local meteorological data for the same period. Results Low temperature and vapor pressure (VP) were associated with weekly incidence of IFA, respiratory syncytial virus, metapneumovirus, bocavirus and adenovirus but no association with relative humidity was found. The incidence of human rhinovirus and enterovirus was independent of temperature. During seasonal IFA outbreaks, the weekly drop of average temperature (compared with the week before) was strongly associated with the IFA incidence recorded the following week. Conclusion A sudden drop in outdoor temperature might activate the annual influenza epidemic in a temperate climate by facilitating aerosol spread in dry air. These conditions also seem to affect the incidence of other respiratory pathogens but not human rhino- or enterovirus, suggesting that routes of infection other than aerosol may be relevant for these agents.

positive: Seasonality of viral respiratory infections in southeast of Brazil: the influence of temperature and air humidity Viruses are the major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in childhood and the main viruses involved are Human Respiratory Syncytial Virus (HRSV), Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV), Influenzavirus A and B (FLUA and FLUB), Human Parainfluenza Virus 1, 2 and 3 (HPIV1, 2 and 3) and Human Rhinovirus (HRV). The purposes of this study were to detect respiratory viruses in hospitalized children younger than six years and identify the influence of temperature and relative air humidity on the detected viruses. Samples of nasopharyngeal washes were collected from hospitalized children between May/2004 and September/2005. Methods of viral detection were RT-PCR, PCR and HRV amplicons were confirmed by hybridization. Results showed 54% (148/272) of viral positivity. HRSV was detected in 29% (79/272) of the samples; HRV in 23.1% (63/272); HPIV3 in 5.1% (14/272); HMPV in 3.3% (9/272); HPIV1 in 2.9% (8/272); FLUB in 1.4% (4/272), FLUA in 1.1% (3/272), and HPIV2 in 0.3% (1/272). The highest detection rates occurred mainly in the spring 2004 and in the autumn 2005. It was observed that viral respiratory infections tend to increase as the relative air humidity decreases, showing significant association with monthly averages of minimal temperature and minimal relative air humidity. In conclusion, viral respiratory infections vary according to temperature and relative air humidity and viral respiratory infections present major incidences it coldest and driest periods.

positive: Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China The purpose of the present study is to explore the associations between novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case counts and meteorological factors in 30 provincial capital cities of China. We compiled a daily dataset including confirmed case counts, ambient temperature (AT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), absolute humidity (AH) and migration scale index (MSI) for each city during the period of January 20th to March 2nd, 2020. First, we explored the associations between COVID-19 confirmed case counts, meteorological factors, and MSI using non-linear regression. Then, we conducted a two-stage analysis for 17 cities with more than 50 confirmed cases. In the first stage, generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution were fitted to estimate city-specific effects of meteorological factors on confirmed case counts. In the second stage, the meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled effects. Our results showed that among 13 cities that have less than 50 confirmed cases, 9 cities locate in the Northern China with average AT below 0 °C, 12 cities had average AH below 4 g/m3, and one city (Haikou) had the highest AH (14.05 g/m3). Those 17 cities with 50 and more cases accounted for 90.6% of all cases in our study. Each 1 °C increase in AT and DTR was related to the decline of daily confirmed case counts, and the corresponding pooled RRs were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.85) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.95), respectively. For AH, the association with COVID-19 case counts were statistically significant in lag 07 and lag 014. In addition, we found the all these associations increased with accumulated time duration up to 14 days. In conclusions, meteorological factors play an independent role in the COVID-19 transmission after controlling population migration. Local weather condition with low temperature, mild diurnal temperature range and low humidity likely favor the transmission.

positive: Significance of geographical factors to the COVID-19 outbreak in India Recently, the large outbreak of COVID-19 cases all over the world has whacked India with about 30,000 confirmed cases within the first 3 months of transmission. The present study used long-term climatic records of air temperature (T), rainfall (R), actual evapotranspiration (AET), solar radiation (SR), specific humidity (SH), wind speed (WS) with topographic altitude (E) and population density (PD) at the regional level to investigate the spatial association with the number of COVID-19 infections (NI). Bivariate analysis failed to find any significant relation (except SR) with the number of infected cases within 36 provinces in India. Variable Importance of Projection (VIP) through Partial Least Square (PLS) technique signified higher importance of SR, T, R and AET. However, generalized additive model fitted with the log-transformed value of input variables and applying spline smoothening to PD and E, significantly found high accuracy of prediction (R(2) = 0.89), and thus well-explained complex heterogeneity among the association of regional parameters with COVID-19 cases in India. Our study suggests that comparatively hot and dry regions in lower altitude of the Indian territory are more prone to the infection by COVID-19 transmission. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s40808-020-00838-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

positive: Impact of global change on transmission of human infectious diseases Global change, which refers to large-scale changes in the earth system and human society, has been changing the outbreak and transmission mode of many infectious diseases. Climate change affects infectious diseases directly and indirectly. Meteorological factors including temperature, precipitation, humidity and radiation influence infectious disease by modulating pathogen, host and transmission pathways. Meteorological disasters such as droughts and floods directly impact the outbreak and transmission of infectious diseases. Climate change indirectly impacts infectious diseases by altering the ecological system, including its underlying surface and vegetation distribution. In addition, anthropogenic activities are a driving force for climate change and an indirect forcing of infectious disease transmission. International travel and rural-urban migration are a root cause of infectious disease transmission. Rapid urbanization along with poor infrastructure and high disease risk in the rural-urban fringe has been changing the pattern of disease outbreaks and mortality. Land use changes, such as agricultural expansion and deforestation, have already changed the transmission of infectious disease. Accelerated air, road and rail transportation development may not only increase the transmission speed of outbreaks, but also enlarge the scope of transmission area. In addition, more frequent trade and other economic activities will also increase the potential risks of disease outbreaks and facilitate the spread of infectious diseases.

positive: Models of transmission of COVID-19 with time under the influence of meteorological determinants Based on the statistical analyses of the data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and meteorological determinants in some of the severely affected cities in Spain, Italy and the USA, some models are constructed showing the relationship of I' (the number of infected individuals divided by the total population of a city) with temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and time. Three models are based on the data before lockdown/travel restrictions in these cities, and the other three models are based on data both before and after lockdown/travel restrictions. These models, in general, indicate that the transmission of COVID-19 could be relatively high either for elevated temperatures with lower relative humidity or for lower temperatures with higher relative humidity conditions. Although one model indicates exponential increase in number of infection cases with time, the more statistically significant models show that the number of cases varies quadratically with time. We have discussed in short, how all these features could be linked with the alterations of structural characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Finally, the possibility of natutal disappearance of COVID-19 pandemic, at the global level, has been discussed in the context of the most statistically significant model.

positive: Epidemiological aspects of astrovirus and coronavirus in poults in the South Eastern Region of Brazil A survey of Turkey Coronavirus (TCoV) and Astrovirus (TAstV-2) prevalence was carried out from February to December during 2006 year in semiarid region of Brazil, from a turkey producer area, localized in South Eastern of Brazil. To asses the risk factor related to clinical material, climatic condition and type of RT-PCR applied, cloacal swabs (CS), faeces, sera, bursa of Fabricius (BF), thymus (TH) and spleen (SP) and ileum-caeca region were collected from 30-day-old poults suffering of enteritis episode characterized as poult enteritis mortality syndrome (PEMS). The PEMS clinical features were characterized by watery to foamy faeces, light brown-yellow in colour and low mortality rate. Meteorological data (rainfall and relative humidity) observed during along the study presented monthly average temperature ranging from 39.3 and 31.2ºC, precipitation in rainy season from 40 to 270.3 mm/month, and no rain during dry season. Simplex RT-PCR gave odds ratio (OR) values suggesting that ileum-caeca region is at higher chance (OR=1.9; p=0.9741) to have both viral RNA than faeces (OR=1.5; p=0.7319). However, multiplex RT-PCR showed 3.98 (p=0.89982) more chance to give positive results in faeces than CS at dry season. The major risk factors seem to be low rate of humidity and high temperatures at winter, probably responsible for spread, easily, the TCoV and TAstv-2 among the flocks. The positive results of both virus suggested that they can play an important role in enteric disorders, associated to low humidity and high temperatures frequently found in tropical countries.

positive: Effect modification of environmental factors on influenza-associated mortality: a time-series study in two Chinese cities BACKGROUND: Environmental factors have been associated with transmission and survival of influenza viruses but no studies have ever explored the role of environmental factors on severity of influenza infection. METHODS: We applied a Poisson regression model to the mortality data of two Chinese metropolitan cities located within the subtropical zone, to calculate the influenza associated excess mortality risks during the periods with different levels of temperature and humidity. RESULTS: The results showed that high absolute humidity (measured by vapor pressure) was significantly (p < 0.05) associated with increased risks of all-cause and cardiorespiratory deaths, but not with increased risks of pneumonia and influenza deaths. The association between absolute humidity and mortality risks was found consistent among the two cities. An increasing pattern of influenza associated mortality risks was also found across the strata of low to high relative humidity, but the results were less consistent for temperature. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the need for people with chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases to take extra caution against influenza during hot and humid days in the subtropics and tropics.

positive: The nexus between COVID-19, temperature and exchange rate in Wuhan city: New findings from partial and multiple wavelet coherence This study attempts to document the nexus between weather, COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan and the Chinese economy. We used daily average temperature (hourly data), daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, and RMB (Chinese currency) exchange rate to represent the weather, COVID-19 outbreak and the Chinese economy, respectively. The methodology of Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC), Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) is employed to analyze the daily data collected from 21st January 2020 to 31st March 2020. The results have revealed a significant coherence between the series at different time-frequency combinations. The overall results suggest the insignificance of an increase in temperature to contain or slow down the new COVID-19 infections. The RMB exchange rate and the COVID-19 showed an out phase coherence at specific time-frequency spots suggesting a negative but limited impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan on the Chinese export economy. Our results are contrary to many earlier studies which suggest a significant role of temperature in slowing down the COVID-19 spread. These results can have important policy implications for the containment of COVID-19 spread and macro-economic management with respect to changes in the weather.

positive: Climatic influences on the worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2 The rapid global spread of the novel, pathogenic, SARS-CoV-2 causing the severe acute respiratory disease COVID-19, becomes a major health problem worldwide and pose the need for international predictive programs. Given the lack of both specific drugs and an efficient preventive vaccine, the expectation that SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate might decrease in temperate regions during summer, dominated the social scene. Here, we attempted a prediction of the worldwide spread of the infections based on climatic data, expressed by 19 bioclimatic variables. The calculated probability maps shown that potential areas of infection follow a shift from the Tropical to Temperate and Mediterranean Bioclimatic regions, and back to the Tropics again. Maps show an increased probability of infections in Europe, followed by an expansion covering areas of the Middle East and Northern Africa, as well as Eastern coastal areas of North America, South-Eastern coastal areas of Latin America and two areas of Southern Australia, and later return to areas of Southeastern Asia, in a manner similar to that of influenza strains (H3N2). Our approach may therefore be of value for the worldwide spread of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting an optimistic scenario of asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks, like other viral respiratory diseases. Consequently, we suggest the incorporation of a climatic impact in the design and implementation of public health policies. Maps of our model are available (constantly updated up to the saturation of the model) at: https://navaak.shinyapps.io/CVRisk/.

positive: Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: role of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread quickly across the globe. Here, we evaluated the role of climate (temperature and precipitation), region-specific susceptibility (BCG vaccination, malaria infection, and elderly population) and international traveller population (human mobility) in shaping the geographical patterns of COVID-19 cases across 1,055 countries/regions, and examined the sequential shift of multiple drivers of the accumulated cases from December, 2019 to April 12, 2020. The accumulated numbers of COVID-19 cases (per 1 million population) were well explained by a simple regression model. The explanatory power (R2) of the model increased up to > 70% in April 2020 as the COVID-19 spread progressed. Climate, host mobility, and host susceptibility largely explained the variance of the COVID-19 cases (per 1 million population), and their explanatory power improved as the pandemic progressed; the relative importance of host mobility and host susceptibility have been greater than that of climate. The number of days from outbreak onset showed greater explanatory power in the earlier stages of COVID-19 spread but rapidly lost its influence. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is deterministically driven by climate suitability, cross-border human mobility, and region-specific susceptibility. The present distribution of COVID-19 cases has not reached an equilibrium and is changing daily, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Nevertheless, the present results, based on mapping the spread of COVID-19 and identifying multiple drivers of this outbreak trajectory, may contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 disease transmission risk and the measures against long-term epidemic.

positive: Short-term effects of weather parameters on COVID-19 morbidity in select US cities Abstract Little is known about the environmental conditions that drive the spatiotemporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2, and preliminary research suggests an association with weather parameters. However, the relationship with temperature and humidity is not yet apparent for COVID-19 cases in US cities first impacted. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between COVID-19 cases and weather parameters in select US cities. A case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the contribution of ambient temperature and specific humidity on COVID-19 cases in select US cities. The case-crossover examines each COVID case as its own control at different time periods (before and after transmission occurred). We modeled the effect of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission using a lag period of 7 days. A subset of 8 cities were evaluated for the relationship with weather parameters and 5 cities were evaluated in detail. Short-term exposure to humidity was positively associated with COVID-19 transmission in 4 cities. The associations were small with ¾ cities exhibiting higher COVID19 transmission with specific humidity that ranged from 6 to 9 g/kg. Our results suggest that weather should be considered in infectious disease modeling efforts and future work is needed over a longer time period and across different locations to clearly establish the weather-COVID19 relationship.

positive: Possible environmental effects on the spread of COVID-19 in China At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, designated as SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China and was identified as the causal pathogen of COVID-19. The epidemic scale of COVID-19 has increased dramatically, with confirmed cases increasing across China and globally. Understanding the potential affecting factors involved in COVID-19 transmission will be of great significance in containing the spread of the epidemic. Environmental and meteorological factors might impact the occurrence of COVID-19, as these have been linked to various diseases, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), whose causative pathogens belong to the same virus family as SARS-CoV-2. We collected daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air quality and meteorological variables of 33 locations in China for the outbreak period of 29 January 2020 to 15 February 2020. The association between air quality index (AQI) and confirmed cases was estimated through a Poisson regression model, and the effects of temperature and humidity on the AQI-confirmed cases association were analyzed. The results show that the effect of AQI on confirmed cases associated with an increase in each unit of AQI was statistically significant in several cities. The lag effect of AQI on the confirmed cases was statistically significant on lag day 1 (relative risk (RR) = 1.0009, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0004, 1.0013), day 2 (RR = 1.0007, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012) and day 3 (RR = 1.0008, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012). The AQI effect on the confirmed cases might be stronger in the temperature range of 10 °C ≤ T < 20 °C than in other temperature ranges, while the RR of COVID-19 transmission associated with AQI was higher in the relative humidity (RH) range of 10% ≤ RH < 20%. Results may suggest an enhanced impact of AQI on the COVID-19 spread under low RH.

positive: Temperature significantly changes COVID-19 transmission in (sub)tropical cities of Brazil The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has become a severe public health issue. The novelty of the virus prompts a search for understanding of how ecological factors affect the transmission and survival of the virus. Several studies have robustly identified a relationship between temperature and the number of cases. However, there is no specific study for a tropical climate such as Brazil. This work aims to determine the relationship of temperature to COVID-19 infection for the state capital cities of Brazil. Cumulative data with the daily number of confirmed cases was collected from February 27 to April 1, 2020, for all 27 state capital cities of Brazil affected by COVID-19. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the linear and nonlinear relationship between annual average temperature compensation and confirmed cases. Also, a polynomial linear regression model was proposed to represent the behavior of the growth curve of COVID-19 in the capital cities of Brazil. The GAM dose-response curve suggested a negative linear relationship between temperatures and daily cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the range from 16.8 °C to 27.4 °C. Each 1 °C rise of temperature was associated with a -4.8951% (t = -2.29, p = 0.0226) decrease in the number of daily cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19. A sensitivity analysis assessed the robustness of the results of the model. The predicted R-squared of the polynomial linear regression model was 0.81053. In this study, which features the tropical temperatures of Brazil, the variation in annual average temperatures ranged from 16.8 °C to 27.4 °C. Results indicated that temperatures had a negative linear relationship with the number of confirmed cases. The curve flattened at a threshold of 25.8 °C. There is no evidence supporting that the curve declined for temperatures above 25.8 °C. The study had the goal of supporting governance for healthcare policymakers.

positive: Besides the climate model, other variables driving the COVID-19 spread in Brazil()

positive: Preliminary evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19, for cases reported globally up to 29th February 2020 Seasonal variation in COVID-19 incidence could impact the trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 29th February 2020 and global gridded temperature data, and after adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, higher average temperature was strongly associated with lower COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of 1°C and higher. However, temperature explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 incidence. These preliminary findings support stringent containment efforts in Europe and elsewhere.

positive: Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey The coronavirus pandemic, which has numerous global implications, has led people to believe that nothing will be the same as before. The present day is dominated by studies on determining the factors that affect, taking preventive actions, and trying to find an effective treatment on top priority. Meteorological parameters are among the crucial factors affecting infectious diseases. The present study examines the correlation between weather and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by considering nine cities in Turkey. In this regard, temperature (°C), dew point (°C), humidity (%), and wind speed (mph) are considered as parameters of weather. Research states that the incubation period of COVID-19 varies from 1â¯day to 14â¯days. Therefore, the effects of each parameter within 1, 3, 7, and 14â¯days are examined. In addition, the population is included as an effective parameter for evaluation. The analyses are conducted based on Spearman's correlation coefficients. The results showed that the highest correlations were observed for population, wind speed 14â¯days ago, and temperature on the day, respectively. The study results may guide authorities and decision-makers on taking specific measures for the cities.

positive: An updated min-review on environmental route of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission The risk of newly emerging diseases is constantly present in a world where changes occur significantly in climatic, commercial, and ecological conditions, in addition to the development of biomedical investigations in new situations. An epidemic respiratory disease instigated by a new coronavirus was initially identified in and has resulted in the current global dissemination. This viral strain and its related disease has been termed “SARS-CoV-2” and “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19” or “2019-nCoV”), respectively, which is transmitted simply between individuals. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced the COVID-19 outburst as a pandemic on March 11, which necessitates a cooperative endeavour globally for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. The absence of previous, and minimum present-day information, particularly concerning the path of contagion have precluded the control of this disease. The present article, therefore, describes the SARS-CoV-2 paths of contagion such as drinking water, solid waste, sewer water, ambient air, and the rest of emerging likely paths.

positive: Characterising the epidemic spread of Influenza A/H3N2 within a city through phylogenetics Infecting large portions of the global population, seasonal influenza is a major burden on societies around the globe. While the global source sink dynamics of the different seasonal influenza viruses have been studied intensively, it’s local spread remains less clear. In order to improve our understanding of how influenza is transmitted on a city scale, we collected an extremely densely sampled set of influenza sequences alongside patient metadata. To do so, we sequenced influenza viruses isolated from patients of two different hospitals, as well as private practitioners in Basel, Switzerland during the 2016/2017 influenza season. The genetic sequences reveal that repeated introductions into the city drove the influenza season. We then reconstruct how the effective reproduction number changed over the course of the season. We find trends in transmission dynamics correlated positively with trends in temperature, but not relative humidity nor school holidays. Alongside the genetic sequence data that allows us to see how individual cases are connected, we gathered patient information, such as the age or household status. Zooming into the local transmission outbreaks suggests that the elderly were to a large extent infected within their own transmission network, while school children likely drove the spread within the remaining transmission network. These patterns will be valuable to plan interventions combating the spread of respiratory diseases within cities given that similar patterns are observed for other influenza seasons and cities. Author summary As shown with the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, respiratory diseases can quickly spread around the globe. While it can be hugely important to understand how diseases spread around the globe, local spread is most often the main driver of novel infections of respiratory diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 or influenza. We here use genetic sequence data alongside patient information to better understand what the drives the local spread of influenza by looking at the 2016/2017 influenza season in Basel, Switzerland as an example. The genetic sequence data allows us to reconstruct the how the transmission dynamics changed over the course of the season, which we correlate to changes, but not humidity or school holidays. Additionally, the genetic sequence data allows us to see how individual cases are connected. Using patient information, such as age and household status our analyses suggest that the elderly mainly transmit within their own transmission network. Additionally, they suggest that school aged children, but not pre-school aged children are important drivers of the local spread of influenza.

positive: The temperature and regional climate effects on communitarian COVID-19 contagion in Mexico throughout phase 1 Abstract Due to the close relationship between the incidence of infectious diseases by epidemics and environmental conditions, this research explores the temperature, evaporation, precipitation and regional climate effects on the local transmission of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 inside 31 states and capital of Mexico since February 29 (national onset) to March 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted to explore the association between the daily local COVID-19 confirmed positive cases (LCPC) and both climate characteristics and the daily weather reported by the regional meteorological stations. In this work, the local transmission ratio (LTR) was calculated with the regional LCPC divided by the number of the effective contagion days since regional onset in each state. The results showed a negative association between temperature (mean, max and min) and climate classification with both LCPC and LTR variables. The precipitation associated positively with LCPC and LTR. The associations between the climate classification with LCPC and LTR are statistically significant. The tropical climate (mean temperature around 25.95 °C and mean precipitation around 8.74 mm) delayed the regional onset. However, the regional onset in dry climates emerged earlier as consequence of the lower temperatures and higher precipitations (20.57 °C and 20.87 mm respectively) than the observed in the tropical climate. The fastest regional onsets were observed in tempered climates in states where the lowest temperatures and lowest precipitations were registered (19.65 °C and 8.48 mm respectively). Meteorological factors influenced the trend on the regional outbreaks in Mexican's states likely by the host predisposition and susceptibility during the cold winter season. In Mexico, the climate characteristics played a crucial role on the local infection during the phase 1 being the tempered regions (as Michoacán, Jalisco, Puebla, etc.) more vulnerable than the dry (as Chihuahua, Durango or Zacatecas, etc.) or tropical areas (as Colima, Campeche, Morelos etc.).

positive: Relationship between Average Daily Temperature and Average Cumulative Daily Rate of Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 The rapid outbreak of the new Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the spread of the virus worldwide, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, have prompted various investigations about the impact of environmental factors on the rate of development of this epidemic. Different studies have called the attention to various parameters that may have influenced the spread of the virus, and in particular, the impact of climatic parameters has been emphasized. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the correlation between the average daily temperature and the rate of coronavirus epidemic growth in the infected regions. The main hypothesis object of our research is that between regions exhibiting a significant difference in the mean daily temperature, a significant difference is also observed in the average cumulative daily rate of confirmed cases, and that this does not happen if there is no significant difference in mean daily temperature. To test this research hypothesis, we carried on the case study of three regions in each of five countries and analyzed the correlation through F-test, and Independent-Samples T-Test. In all five selected countries, we found that when there is a significant difference in the daily mean temperature between two regions of a country, a significant difference exists also in the average cumulative daily rate of confirmed cases. Conversely, if there are no significant differences in the mean daily temperature of two regions in the same country, no significant difference is observed in the average cumulative daily rate of confirmed cases for these regions.

positive: Climatic factors influence COVID-19 outbreak as revealed by worldwide mortality The COVID-19 outbreak is triggering a global crisis that is challenging governments, health systems and the scientific community worldwide. A central question in the COVID-19 pandemic is whether climatic factors modulate its progression. This information is key to epidemiologists and healthcare decision-makers for improving their management plans. Previous attempts to assess the impact of climatic parameters have yielded ambiguous results, either because they were using geographically or temporally restricted data, or because they were comparing infection rates across countries, which were measured differently depending on local screening strategies. In March 2020, the spread of COVID-19 dramatically increased the number of countries recording deaths, providing an opportunity to use mortality rate, which is measured more homogeneously across countries than infection rates, as a descriptor of the COVID-19 outbreak over a large latitudinal range. Here, using data recorded in 208 territories from 88 countries, we show that mortality rate is negatively influenced by warmer air temperature and positively affected by higher relative humidity. Each additional Celsius degree decreases mortality rate by ~4%, while a 1% increase in relative humidity raises mortality rate by ~2%. Temperature is positively correlated with UV-index, for which one unit of increase results in a ~15% decrease in the mortality rate. We also show that other factors contribute to the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak, such as the proportion of vulnerable age classes in the population, access to a non-overwhelmed health system, as well as governmental travel restrictions for controlling the spread of the disease. All of them are critical factors impacting the mortality rate of COVID-19. The influence of climatic factors is a warning to all southern hemisphere countries where winter is coming soon. Northern hemisphere countries should also be warned that climatic factors alone will likely not be sufficient to contain the disease.

positive: Do Weather Temperature and Median-age affect COVID-19 Transmission? It was observed that the coldest countries and the eldest in terms of median-age were most distressed by COVID-19 pandemic, while the warmest countries and that have younger-aged population were the least affected. Therefore, this study utilized the non-linear least squares method to estimate the impact of weather temperatures and median age on COVID-19 cases per million in thirty-nine countries divided into two groups. The first group composed of twenty-four countries that announced the first COVID-19 case in January 2020, while the second group contains fifteen countries that witnessed the pandemic for the first time in February of the same year. The study revealed some major findings, which are: COVID-19 cases per million were not significantly affected by weather temperature or the median age in “January-group” countries (after 72.67 days on average), while COVID-19 cases per million increased significantly by decreasing temperatures, and increasing the median age in case of “February-group” countries (after an average of 44.80 days). This means that weather temperature and median age may influence the transmission rates of COVID-19 in its early stages, while weather temperature or median age no longer have effects in the advanced stages of the pandemic.

positive: REGIONAL DETERMINANTS OF THE EXPANSION OF COVID-19 IN BRAZIL Objective: This study investigates the regional differences in the occurrence of COVID-19 in Brazil and its relationship with climatic and demographic factors, for this, using data about identified cases of COVID-19 on Brazil from February 26 to April 04, 2020. Methods: A model using the Polynomial Regression with cubic adjustments of the number of days of contagion, demographic density, city population and climatic factors was designed to explain the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil. Main results: It was evidenced that temperature variation maintains a relationship with the reduction in the number of cases of COVID-19, but on a very small scale. With a simulation of 30 days of contagion, a variation of -0.9% was found for each increase of 1 C. Conclusion: Temperature, despite being an intervening factor in the variation in the number of COVID-19 cases, has a reduced magnitude effect. Cities with higher temperatures do not necessarily it is more protected from the SARS-CoV-2 than those with lower temperatures, however, strong statistical significance was found, this relationship deserves to be investigated in other tests with longer time series, wide and with especially non-linear data adjustments.

positive: Influence of socio-ecological factors on COVID-19 risk: a cross-sectional study based on 178 countries/regions worldwide BACKGROUND: The initial outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 in China in 2019 has been severely tested in other countries worldwide. We aimed to describe the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide and assess the effects of various socio-ecological factors on COVID-19 risk. METHODS: We collected COVID-19 pandemic infection data and social-ecological data of 178 countries/regions worldwide from three database. We used spatial econometrics method to assess the global and local correlation of COVID-19 risk indicators for COVID-19. To estimate the adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR), we modelled negative binomial regression analysis with spatial information and socio-ecological factors. FINDINGS: The study indicated that 37, 29 and 39 countries/regions were strongly opposite from the IR, CMR and DCI index "spatial autocorrelation hypothesis", respectively. The IRs were significantly positively associated with GDP per capita, the use of at least basic sanitation services and social insurance program coverage, and were significantly negatively associated with the proportion of the population spending more than 25% of household consumption or income on out-of-pocket health care expenses and the poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty lines. The CMR was significantly positively associated with urban populations, GDP per capita and current health expenditure, and was significantly negatively associated with the number of hospital beds, number of nurses and midwives, and poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty lines. The DCI was significantly positively associated with urban populations, population density and researchers in R&D, and was significantly negatively associated with the number of hospital beds, number of nurses and midwives and poverty headcount ratio at the national poverty lines. We also found that climatic factors were not significantly associated with COVID-19 risk. CONCLUSION: Countries/regions should pay more attention to controlling population flow, improving diagnosis and treatment capacity, and improving public welfare policies.

positive: Association between viral seasonality and meteorological factors Numerous viruses can cause upper respiratory tract infections. They often precede serious lower respiratory tract infections. Each virus has a seasonal pattern, with peaks in activity in different seasons. We examined the effects of daily local meteorological data (temperature, relative humidity, “humidity-range” and dew point) from Edinburgh, Scotland on the seasonal variations in viral transmission. We identified the seasonality of rhinovirus, adenovirus, influenza A and B viruses, human parainfluenza viruses 1–3 (HPIV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and human metapneumovirus (HMPV) from the 52060 respiratory samples tested between 2009 and 2015 and then confirmed the same by a generalised linear model. We also investigated the relationship between meteorological factors and viral seasonality. Non-enveloped viruses were present throughout the year. Following logistic regression adenovirus, influenza viruses A, B, RSV and HMPV preferred low temperatures; RSV and influenza A virus preferred a narrow “humidity-range” and HPIV type 3 preferred the season with lower humidity. A change (i.e. increase or decrease) in specific meteorological factors is associated with an increase in activity of specific viruses at certain times of the year.

positive: Exponential phase of covid19 expansion is not driven by climate at global scale The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19. We found that global connections, represented by countries importance in the global air transportation network, is the main explanation for the growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate, geographic distance and socioeconomics did not affect this big picture analysis. Geographic distance and climate were significant barriers in the past but were surpassed by the human engine that allowed us to colonize almost every corner on Earth. Based on our global analysis, the global network of air transportation could lead to a worst-case scenario of synchronous global pandemic if board control measures in international airports were not taken and are not sustained during this pandemic. Despite all limitations of a global analysis, our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in tropical countries should be taken very carefully, at risk to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to collapse of national health systems. This is the case of Brazil, a well-connected tropical country that presents the second highest increase rate of COVID-19 and might experience a serious case of human-induced disasters if decision makers take into consideration unsupported claims of the growth rate of COVID-19 might be lower in tropical countries.

positive: Assessing the interactions between COVID-19 and influenza in the United States The 2019–2020 influenza sentinel surveillance data exhibits unexpected trends. Typical influenza seasons have a small herald wave, followed by a decrease due to school closure during holidays, and then a main post-holiday peak that is significantly larger than the pre-holiday wave. During the 2019–2020 influenza season, influenza-like illness data in the United States appears to have a markedly lower main epidemic peak compared to what would be expected based on the pre-holiday peak. We hypothesize that the 2019–2020 influenza season does have a lower than expected burden and that this deflation is due to a behavioral or ecological interaction with COVID-19. We apply an intervention analysis to assess if this influenza season deviates from expectations, then we compare multiple hypothesized drivers of the decrease in influenza in a spatiotemporal regression model. Lastly, we develop a mechanistic metapopulation model, incorporating transmission reduction that scales with COVID-19 risk perception. We find that the 2019–2020 ILI season is smaller and decreases earlier than expected based on prior influenza seasons, and that the increase in COVID-19 risk perception is associated with this decrease. Additionally, we find that a 5% average reduction in transmission is sufficient to reproduce the observed flu dynamics. We propose that precautionary behaviors driven by COVID-19 risk perception or increased isolation driven by undetected COVID-19 spread dampened the influenza season. We suggest that when surveillance for a novel pathogen is limited, surveillance streams of co-circulating infections may provide a signal.

positive: Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the post-pandemic period There is an urgent need to project how transmission of the novel betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will unfold in coming years. These dynamics will depend on seasonality, the duration of immunity, and the strength of cross-immunity to/from the other human coronaviruses. Using data from the United States, we measured how these factors affect transmission of human betacoronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1. We then built a mathematical model to simulate transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the year 2025. We project that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after an initial pandemic wave. We summarize the full range of plausible transmission scenarios and identify key data still needed to distinguish between them, most importantly longitudinal serological studies to determine the duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2.

positive: Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the mortality of COVID-19 in Wuhan Object Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). This study aims to explore the association between coronavirus disease (COVID-19) death and weather parameters. Methods In this study, we collected the daily death number of COVID-19, meteorological and air pollutant data from 20 January, 2020 to 29 February, 2020 in Wuhan, China. Then, the generalized additive model was applied to explore the impact of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on daily mortality of COVID-19. Results There were in total 2299 COVID-19 mortality counts in Wuhan. A positive association with COVID-19 mortality was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = -0.32). In addition, each 1 unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 mortality at lag 3. However, both per 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 mortality at lag 3 and lag 5, respectively. Conclusion In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.

positive: Climate affects global patterns of COVID-19 early outbreak dynamics Environmental factors, including seasonal climatic variability, can strongly impact on spatio-temporal patterns of infectious disease outbreaks, but relationships between Covid-19 dynamics and climate remain controversial. We assessed the impact of temperature and humidity on the global patterns of Covid-19 early outbreak dynamics during January-March 2020. Here we show that Covid-19 growth rates peaked in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere with mean temperature of ~5 C, and specific humidity of 4-6 g/m3 during the outbreak period, while they were lower both in warmer/wetter and colder/dryer regions. Relationships between Covid-19 and climate were robust to the potential confounding effects of air pollution and socio-economic variables, including population size, density and health expenditure. The strong relationship between local climate and Covid-19 growth rates suggests the possibility of seasonal variation in the spatial pattern of outbreaks, with temperate regions of the Southern Hemisphere becoming at particular risk of severe outbreaks during the austral autumn-winter.

positive: Modeling the Control of COVID-19: Impact of Policy Interventions and Meteorological Factors In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong strategies to prevent the situation from deteriorating. Home quarantine is the most important one to prevent the spread of COVID-19. In order to estimate the effect of population quarantine, we divide the population into seven categories for simulation. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is given. Numerical simulations show that the proposed model can describe the transmission of COVID-19 accurately, the corresponding prediction of the trend of the disease is given. The home quarantine strategy plays an important role in controlling the disease spread and speeding up the decline of COVID-19. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed and discussed adequately. We should pay attention to that, though the epidemic is in decline in China, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. Once the control strategy is removed, COVID-19 may become a normal epidemic disease just like flu. Further control for the disease is still necessary, we focus on the relationship between the spread rate of the virus and the meteorological conditions. A comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors on both high and low migration groups. As the progress on the new vaccine, we design detail vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of efficient vaccination. Once the vaccine comes into use, the numerical simulation provide a promptly prospective research.

positive: Warmer weather and global trends in the coronavirus COVID-19 Predicting COVID-19 epidemic development in the upcoming warm season has attracted much attention in the hope of providing helps to fight the epidemic. It requires weather (environmental) factors to be included in prediction models, but there are few models to achieve it successfully. In this study, we proposed a new concept of environmental infection rate (RE), based on floating time of respiratory droplets in the air and inactivation rate of virus to solve the problem. More than half of the particles in the droplets can float in the atmosphere for 1-2 hours. The prediction results showed that high RE values (>3.5) are scattered around 30N in winter (Dec.-Feb.). As the weather warms, its distribution area expands and extends to higher latitudes of northern hemisphere, reaching its maximum in April, and then shrinking northward. These indicated that the spread of COVID-19 in most parts of the northern hemisphere is expected to decline after Apr., but the risks in high latitudes will remain high in May. In the south of southern hemisphere, the RE values tend to subside from Apr. to July. The high modeled RE values up to July, however, suggested that warmer weather will not stop COVID-19 from spreading. Public health intervention is needed to overcome the outbreak.

positive: The Relationship between the Global Burden of Influenza from 2017-2019 and COVID-19 Background SARS-CoV-2 and Influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission. We assessed whether historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across and within regions of the world. Methods Weekly surveillance data reported in FluNet from January 2017-December 2019 for influenza and World Health Organization for COVID-19 (to May 31, 2020) across the seven World Bank regions were used to assess the total and annual number of influenza and COVID-19 cases per country, within and across all regions, to generate comparative descending ranks from highest to lowest burden of disease. Results Across and within regions, rankings of influenza and COVID-19 were relatively consistent. Europe and Central Asia and North America ranked first and second for COVID-19 and second and first for influenza, respectively. East Asia and the Pacific traditionally ranked higher for influenza but to date, has been less affected by COVID-19. Between regions, Sub-Saharan Africa ranked amongst the least affected by both influenza and COVID-19. Conclusion Consistency in distribution of the burden of COVID-19 and influenza suggest shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Regions with discrepancies between influenza and COVID-19 burden may provide further insight into the potential impact of non-pharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens and the relative impact of non-pharmacologic intervention strategies as prior information.

positive: Correlation of the global spread of coronavirus disease-19 with atmospheric air temperature Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an enveloped virus that may be sensitive to heat. We assessed whether the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) correlates with air temperature. We also studied whether additional climate, geographical, and population variables were correlated. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and mortality rates reported in each country between 1st Jan and 31st Mar 2020 were compared with the country's three-month average atmospheric air temperature, precipitation and latitude. Spearman's correlation coefficient (rs) was used to identify significant correlations. Our analysis included a total of 748,555 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. The total number of patients with COVID-19 decreased with increasing atmospheric air temperature (rs = -0.54, 95%CI: [-0.64, -0.42]; P <0.001) and increased with an increasing latitude (rs =0.60, 95%CI: [0.48, 0.70]; P <0.001). Our findings justify further studies to examine the effect of air temperature on infectivity of SAR-CoV-2.

positive: Anomalous atmospheric circulation favored the spread of COVID-19 in Europe The current pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. It has subsequently spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, in terms of air temperature and humidity, in Italy and Spain for a quicker spread of the virus compared with the rest of the European countries. It seems plausible that the strong atmospheric stability and associated dry conditions that dominated in these regions may have favored the virus's propagation, by short-range droplet transmission as well as likely by long-range aerosol (airborne) transmission.

positive: Will environmental changes in temperature affect the course of COVID-19? While the outbreak has reached every region of the world, it is undeniable that countries in the southern hemisphere seem to be less affected, where cases have been reported, these have been imported and travel related. We analyzed the climate temperature from various regions according to their current ongoing human-to-human transmission status. We studied 3 groups; Group 1, 10 provinces from China with majority of COVID-19 cases; Group 2, areas where continuous horizontal transmission outside of China had been reported; and group 3, areas where imported cases had been detected and no horizontal transmission had been documented after at least seven days since the first case was reported. The regions without ongoing human-to-human transmission showed significantly higher temperatures when compared to China and countries with ongoing human-to-human transmission, with over an 11-degree difference. The average rainfall during the study period was significantly higher in those regions without OHHT when compared to the Chinese provinces with ongoing human-to-human transmission and the regions with active transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings show statistically significant differences between regions with ongoing human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 cases compared to those regions without horizontal transmission. This phenomenon could have implications in the behavior of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in the following months.

positive: Higher solar irradiance is associated with a lower incidence of COVID-19 We studied the relationship between the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), demographical, and climatological measurements in different regions across the world. Lower solar irradiance and higher population density were independent predictors of greater COVID-19 outbreaks. Further studies on the potential protective effect of sunlight over COVID-19 are warranted.

positive: Evidence that higher temperatures are associated with lower incidence of COVID-19 in pandemic state, cumulative cases reported up to March 27, 2020 Seasonal temperature variation may impact the trajectories of COVID-19 in different global regions. Cumulative data reported by the World Health Organization, for dates up to March 27, 20201, show association between COVID-19 incidence and regions at or above 30° latitude. Historic climate data also show significant reduction of case rates with mean maximum temperature above approximately 22.5 degrees Celsius. Variance at the local level, however, could not be well explained by geography and temperature. These preliminary findings support continued countermeasures and study of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 transmission rates by temperature and humidity.

positive: Short-Term Effects of Ambient Ozone, PM2.5, and Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths in Queens, New York The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, has been rapidly increasing in the United States. Boroughs of New York City, including Queens county, turn out to be the epicenters of this infection. According to the data provided by the New York State Department of Health, most of the cases of new COVID-19 infections in New York City have been found in the Queens county where 42,023 people have tested positive, and 3221 people have died as of 20 April 2020. Person-to-person transmission and travels were implicated in the initial spread of the outbreaks, but factors related to the late phase of rapidly spreading outbreaks in March and April are still uncertain. A few previous studies have explored the links between air pollution and COVID-19 infections, but more data is needed to understand the effects of short-term exposures of air pollutants and meteorological factors on the spread of COVID-19 infections, particularly in the U.S. disease epicenters. In this study, we have focused on ozone and PM2.5, two major air pollutants in New York City, which were previously found to be associated with respiratory viral infections. The aim of our regression modeling was to explore the associations among ozone, PM2.5, daily meteorological variables (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, cloud percentages, and precipitation levels), and COVID-19 confirmed new cases and new deaths in Queens county, New York during March and April 2020. The results from these analyses showed that daily average temperature, daily maximum eight-hour ozone concentration, average relative humidity, and cloud percentages were significantly and positively associated with new confirmed cases related to COVID-19; none of these variables showed significant associations with new deaths related to COVID-19. The findings indicate that short-term exposures to ozone and other meteorological factors can influence COVID-19 transmission and initiation of the disease, but disease aggravation and mortality depend on other factors.

positive: COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter.

positive: Meteorological factors and domestic new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities: A time-series analysis AIM To investigate the associations of meteorological factors and the daily new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in nine Asian cities. METHOD Pearson correlation and generalized additive modeling were performed to assess the relationships between daily new COVID-19 cases and meteorological factors (daily average temperature and relative humidity) with the most updated data currently available. RESULTS The Pearson correlation showed that daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were more correlated with the average temperature than with relative humidity. Daily new confirmed cases were negatively correlated with the average temperature in Beijing (r=-0.565, P<0.01), Shanghai (r=-0.471, P<0.01), and Guangzhou (r=-0.530, P<0.01) , yet in contrast, positively correlated with that in Japan (r=0.441, P<0.01). In most of the cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, and Kuala Lumpur), generalized additive modeling analysis showed the number of daily new confirmed cases was positively associated with both average temperature and relative humidity, especially in lagged 3d model, where a positive influence of temperature on the daily new confirmed cases was discerned in 5 cities except in Beijing, Wuhan, Korea, and Malaysia. Nevertheless, the results were inconsistent across cities and lagged time, suggesting meteorological factors were unlikely to greatly influence the COVID-19 epidemic. CONCLUSION The associations between meteorological factors and the number of COVID-19 daily cases are inconsistent across cities and lagged time. Large-scale public health measures and expanded regional research are still required until a vaccine becomes available and herd immunity is established.

positive: Weathering the pandemic: How the Caribbean Basin can use viral and environmental patterns to predict, prepare and respond to COVID‐19 The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is developing at different paces throughout the world. Some areas, like the Caribbean Basin, have yet to see the virus strike at full force. When it does, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the consequent COVID‐19 outbreaks will overwhelm healthcare systems and economies. This is particularly concerning in the Caribbean as pandemics can have disproportionately higher mortality impacts on lower and middle income countries. Preliminary observations from our team and others suggest that temperature and climatological factors could influence the spread of this novel coronavirus, making spatiotemporal predictions of its infectiousness possible. This review studies geographic and time‐based distribution of known respiratory viruses in the Caribbean Basin in an attempt to foresee how the pandemic will develop in this region. This review is meant to aid in planning short‐ and long‐term interventions to manage outbreaks at the international, national and sub‐national levels in the region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

positive: Let the sun shine in: effects of ultraviolet radiation on invasive pneumococcal disease risk in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of community acquired pneumonia and bacteremia. Excess wintertime mortality related to pneumonia has been noted for over a century, but the seasonality of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been described relatively recently and is poorly understood. Improved understanding of environmental influence on disease seasonality has taken on new urgency due to global climate change. METHODS: We evaluated 602 cases of IPD reported in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, from 2002 to 2007. Poisson regression models incorporating seasonal smoothers were used to identify associations between weekly weather patterns and case counts. Associations between acute (day-to-day) environmental fluctuations and IPD occurrence were evaluated using a case-crossover approach. Effect modification across age and sex strata was explored, and meta-regression models were created using stratum-specific estimates for effect. RESULTS: IPD incidence was greatest in the wintertime, and spectral decomposition revealed a peak at 51.0 weeks, consistent with annual periodicity. After adjustment for seasonality, yearly increases in reporting, and temperature, weekly incidence was found to be associated with clear-sky UV index (IRR per unit increase in index: 0.70 [95% CI 0.54-0.91]). The effect of UV index was highest among young strata and decreased with age. At shorter time scales, only an association with increases in ambient sulphur oxides was linked to disease risk (OR for highest tertile of exposure 0.75, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.93). CONCLUSION: We confirmed the wintertime predominance of IPD in a major urban center. The major predictor of IPD in Philadelphia is extended periods of low UV radiation, which may explain observed wintertime seasonality. The mechanism of action of diminished light exposure on disease occurrence may be due to direct effects on pathogen survival or host immune function via altered 1,25-(OH)(2)-vitamin-D metabolism. These findings may suggest less diminution in future IPD risk with climate change than would be expected if wintertime seasonality was driven by temperature.

positive: Environmental factors on the SARS epidemic: air temperature, passage of time and multiplicative effect of hospital infection. The study sought to identify factors involved in the emergence, prevention and elimination of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Hong Kong during 11 March to 22 May 2003. A structured multiphase regression analysis was used to estimate the potential effects of weather, time and interaction effect of hospital infection. In days with a lower air temperature during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold (95% confidence interval 5.6-58.8) higher than in days with a higher temperature. The total daily new cases might naturally decrease by an average of 2.8 patients for every 10 days during the epidemic. The multiplicative effect of infected hospital staff with patients in an intensive care unit (ICU) and the proportion of SARS patients in ICUs might respectively increase the risk of a larger SARS epidemic in the community. The provision of protective gear in hospitals was also a very important factor for the prevention of SARS infection. SARS transmission appeared to be dependent on seasonal temperature changes and the multiplicative effect of hospital infection. SARS also appeared to retreat naturally over time.

positive: Possible meteorological influence on the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) community outbreak at Amoy Gardens, Hong Kong. The largest community outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) occurred in the Amoy Gardens residential estate in Hong Kong, in March and April of 2003. It affected more than 300 residents, or 1.7 percent of the total Amoy Gardens population. An airborne pathway has been hypothesized as a possible mode for the spread of the disease. If that hypothesis is correct, meteorological factors may have played a contributory role; the virus-laden aerosols may have been transported between apartment blocks by the ambient wind, low mixing heights may have prevented the efficient dispersion of the aerosols, and a fall in temperature may have fostered the survival of the virus or increased the susceptibility of the exposed population. This information, used in combination with weather forecasts available several days ahead from meteorological services, should be useful for mitigation considerations in the unlikely event of a similar occurrence.

positive: Preventing Airborne Disease Transmission: Review of Methods for Ventilation Design in Health Care Facilities Health care facility ventilation design greatly affects disease transmission by aerosols. The desire to control infection in hospitals and at the same time to reduce their carbon footprint motivates the use of unconventional solutions for building design and associated control measures. This paper considers indoor sources and types of infectious aerosols, and pathogen viability and infectivity behaviors in response to environmental conditions. Aerosol dispersion, heat and mass transfer, deposition in the respiratory tract, and infection mechanisms are discussed, with an emphasis on experimental and modeling approaches. Key building design parameters are described that include types of ventilation systems (mixing, displacement, natural and hybrid), air exchange rate, temperature and relative humidity, air flow distribution structure, occupancy, engineered disinfection of air (filtration and UV radiation), and architectural programming (source and activity management) for health care facilities. The paper describes major findings and suggests future research needs in methods for ventilation design of health care facilities to prevent airborne infection risk.

positive: Climate Change and the Geographic Distribution of Infectious Diseases Our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the spread of infectious diseases is in its infancy. Numerous, and in some cases conflicting, predictions have been developed, principally based on models of biological processes or mapping of current and historical disease statistics. Current debates on whether climate change, relative to socioeconomic determinants, will be a major influence on human disease distributions are useful to help identify research needs but are probably artificially polarized. We have at least identified many of the critical geophysical constraints, transport opportunities, biotic requirements for some disease systems, and some of the socioeconomic factors that govern the process of migration and establishment of parasites and pathogens. Furthermore, we are beginning to develop a mechanistic understanding of many of these variables at specific sites. Better predictive understanding will emerge in the coming years from analyses regarding how these variables interact with each other.

positive: ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths linked to covid-19 in the Paris region are correlated with previously observed ambient temperature OBJECTIVE To study the effect of weather on severity indicators of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN Ecological study. SETTING Paris region. POPULATION Severely ill patients with covid-19. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Daily covid-19-related intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital deaths in the Paris region, and the daily weather characteristics of Paris midtown. RESULTS Daily ICU admissions and in-hospital deaths were strongly and negatively correlated to ambient temperatures, with a time lag. The highest Pearson correlation coefficients and statistically significant P values were found 8 days before occurrence of ICU admissions and 15 days before deaths. CONCLUSIONS The study findings show a strong effect of previously observed ambient temperature that has an effect on severity indicators of covid-19.

positive: Stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and environment and its sensitivity to heating and UV irradiation. OBJECTIVE The causal agent for SARS is considered as a novel coronavirus that has never been described both in human and animals previously. The stability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and in environments was studied. METHODS Using a SARS coronavirus strain CoV-P9, which was isolated from pharyngeal swab of a probable SARS case in Beijing, its stability in mimic human specimens and in mimic environment including surfaces of commonly used materials or in household conditions, as well as its resistance to temperature and UV irradiation were analyzed. A total of 10(6) TCID50 viruses were placed in each tested condition, and changes of the viral infectivity in samples after treatments were measured by evaluating cytopathic effect (CPE) in cell line Vero-E6 at 48 h after infection. RESULTS The results showed that SARS coronavirus in the testing condition could survive in serum, 1:20 diluted sputum and feces for at least 96 h, whereas it could remain alive in urine for at least 72 h with a low level of infectivity. The survival abilities on the surfaces of eight different materials and in water were quite comparable, revealing reduction of infectivity after 72 to 96 h exposure. Viruses stayed stable at 4 degrees C, at room temperature (20 degrees C) and at 37 degrees C for at least 2 h without remarkable change in the infectious ability in cells, but were converted to be non-infectious after 90-, 60- and 30-min exposure at 56 degrees C, at 67 degrees C and at 75 degrees C, respectively. Irradiation of UV for 60 min on the virus in culture medium resulted in the destruction of viral infectivity at an undetectable level. CONCLUSION The survival ability of SARS coronavirus in human specimens and in environments seems to be relatively strong. Heating and UV irradiation can efficiently eliminate the viral infectivity.

positive: Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19 We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by a readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temperature and growth rate, and evaluate its statistical confidence. The results clearly support the first reported statistically significant relationship of negative correlation between the average environmental temperature and exponential growth rates of the infected cases. The critical temperature, which eliminates the exponential growth, and thus the COVID-19 spread in US regions, is estimated to be T(C) = 86.1 ± 4.3 F(0).

positive: Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = -0.0100, 95% CI: -0.0125, -0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.

positive: Decline in temperature and humidity increases the occurrence of influenza in cold climate BACKGROUND: Both temperature and humidity may independently or jointly contribute to the risk of influenza infections. We examined the relations between the level and decrease of temperature, humidity and the risk of influenza A and B virus infections in a subarctic climate. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover study among military conscripts (n = 892) seeking medical attention due to respiratory symptoms during their military training period and identified 66 influenza A and B cases by PCR or serology. Meteorological data such as measures of average and decline in ambient temperature and absolute humidity (AH) during the three preceding days of the onset (hazard period) and two reference periods, prior and after the onset were obtained. RESULTS: The average temperature preceding the influenza onset was −6.8 ± 5.6°C and AH 3.1 ± 1.3 g/m(3). A decrease in both temperature and AH during the hazard period increased the occurrence of influenza so that a 1°C decrease in temperature and 0.5 g decrease per m(3) in AH increased the estimated risk by 11% [OR 1.11 (1.03 to 1.20)] and 58% [OR 1.58 (1.28 to 1.96)], respectively. The occurrence of influenza infections was positively associated with both the average temperature [OR 1.10 per 1°C (95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.19)] and AH [OR 1.25 per g/m(3) (1.05 to 1.49)] during the hazard period prior to onset. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that a decrease rather than low temperature and humidity per se during the preceding three days increase the risk of influenza episodes in a cold climate.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 infection: the environmental endurance of the virus can be influenced by the increase of temperature The COVID-19 disease, a respiratory disease transmitted by a new betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2. As for other viral respiratory agents, SARS-CoV-2 spreads by person to person through respiratory droplets and direct contact and potentially by indirect contact through fomites. The goal of the current study is to evaluate whether the increase of temperature can influence the environmental endurance of SARS-CoV-2.We tested SARS-CoV-2 environmental stability in parallel at room temperature (RT, 20-25 Celsius degrees) and at average maximum temperature of June (JT) estimated at 28 Celsius degrees in Italy. The virus inoculated on plastic surface was harvested at predefined time-points and tested to evaluate viral titres on Vero cells by TCID50. Our results confirm that fomite transmission of the emerging SARS-CoV2 is possible, since the virus remains viable on surfaces up to 84 hours at both RT and JT. Moreover, a remarkable difference between the two temperatures exists, suggesting that virus vitality can be influenced by the environmental temperature. Our results support the hypothesis that in the hot season the increase of temperature could influence the environmental endurance of SARS-CoV2 and reduce Covid-19 transmission probability.

positive: Weather variables impact on COVID-19 incidence We test the hypothesis of COVID-19 contagion being influenced by meteorological parameters such as temperature or humidity. We analysed data at high spatial resolution (regions in Italy and counties in the USA) and found that while at low resolution this might seem the case, at higher resolution no correlation is found. Our results are consistent with a poor outdoors transmission of the disease. However, a possible indirect correlation between good weather and a decrease in disease spread may occur, as people spend longer time outdoors.

positive: Prediction of the Number of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Based on K-Means-LSTM COVID-19 is a pandemic disease that began to rapidly spread in the US with the first case detected on January 19, 2020, in Washington State. March 9, 2020, and then increased rapidly with total cases of 25,739 as of April 20, 2020. The Covid-19 pandemic is so unnerving that it is difficult to understand how any person is affected by the virus. Although most people with coronavirus 81%, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), will have little to mild symptoms, others may rely on a ventilator to breathe or not at all. SEIR models have broad applicability in predicting the outcome of the population with a variety of diseases. However, many researchers use these models without validating the necessary hypotheses. Far too many researchers often"overfit"the data by using too many predictor variables and small sample sizes to create models. Models thus developed are unlikely to stand validity check on a separate group of population and regions. The researcher remains unaware that overfitting has occurred, without attempting such validation. In the paper, we present a combination algorithm that combines similar days features selection based on the region using Xgboost, K Means, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to construct a prediction model (i.e., K-Means-LSTM) for short-term COVID-19 cases forecasting in Louisana state USA. The weighted k-means algorithm based on extreme gradient boosting is used to evaluate the similarity between the forecasts and past days. The results show that the method with K-Means-LSTM has a higher accuracy with an RMSE of 601.20 whereas the SEIR model with an RMSE of 3615.83.

positive: Correlation between weather and Covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta, Indonesia This study aims to analyze the correlation between weather and covid-19 pandemic in Jakarta Indonesia. This study employed a secondary data analysis of surveillance data of covid-19 from the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia and weather from the Meteorological Department of the Republic of Indonesia. The components of weather include minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), temperature average (°C), humidity (%), and amount of rainfall (mm). Spearman-rank correlation test was used for data analysis. Among the components of the weather, only temperature average (°C) was significantly correlated with covid-19 pandemic (r = 0.392; p < .01). The finding serves as an input to reduce the incidence rate of covid-19 in Indonesia.

positive: Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. BACKGROUND Control of pandemic influenza by social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic planning. However, investigations of the extent to which these measures actually affect the progression of a pandemic have been limited. OBJECTIVE To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission. DESIGN Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns. SETTING Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. DATA SOURCES 2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars. MEASUREMENTS Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. RESULTS The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic. LIMITATIONS Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible. CONCLUSION Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.

positive: Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China Abstract A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 °C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = −0.0100, 95% CI: −0.0125, −0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic.

positive: Changes in temperature alter the potential outcomes of virus host shifts Host shifts–where a pathogen jumps between different host species–are an important source of emerging infectious disease. With on-going climate change there is an increasing need to understand the effect changes in temperature may have on emerging infectious disease. We investigated whether species’ susceptibilities change with temperature and ask if susceptibility is greatest at different temperatures in different species. We infected 45 species of Drosophilidae with an RNA virus and measured how viral load changes with temperature. We found the host phylogeny explained a large proportion of the variation in viral load at each temperature, with strong phylogenetic correlations between viral loads across temperature. The variance in viral load increased with temperature, while the mean viral load did not. This suggests that as temperature increases the most susceptible species become more susceptible, and the least susceptible less so. We found no significant relationship between a species’ susceptibility across temperatures, and proxies for thermal optima (critical thermal maximum and minimum or basal metabolic rate). These results suggest that whilst the rank order of species susceptibilities may remain the same with changes in temperature, some species may become more susceptible to a novel pathogen, and others less so.

positive: COVID-19 transmission in Mainland China is associated with temperature and humidity: A time-series analysis Abstract COVID-19 has become a pandemic. The influence of meteorological factors on the transmission and spread of COVID-19 is of interest. This study sought to examine the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and relative humidity (ARH) with the daily count of COVID-19 cases in 30 Chinese provinces (in Hubei from December 1, 2019 to February 11, 2020 and in other provinces from January 20, 2020 to Februarys 11, 2020). A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was fitted to quantify the province-specific associations between meteorological variables and the daily cases of COVID-19 during the study periods. In the model, the 14-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) of AT and ARH, and their interaction were included with time trend and health-seeking behavior adjusted. Their spatial distributions were visualized. AT and ARH showed significantly negative associations with COVID-19 with a significant interaction between them (0.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.004–0.07) in Hubei. Every 1 °C increase in the AT led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 36% to 57% when ARH was in the range from 67% to 85.5%. Every 1% increase in ARH led to a decrease in the daily confirmed cases by 11% to 22% when AT was in the range from 5.04 °C to 8.2 °C. However, these associations were not consistent throughout Mainland China.

positive: Climatic influence on the magnitude of COVID-19 outbreak: a stochastic model-based global analysis This study examines the association between community transmission of COVID-19 cases and climatic predictors, considering travel information and annual parasite index across the three climatic zones, i.e., tropical, subtropical, and temperate. A Boosted Regression Tree model has been employed to understand the association between the COVID-19 cases. The results show that average temperature and average relative humidity are the major contributors in explaining the differentials of COVID-19 transmission in temperate and subtropical regions whereas the mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality are the most significant determinants in tropical regions. The average temperature is the most influential factor affecting the number of COVID-19 cases in France, Turkey, the US, the UK, and Germany, and the cases decrease sharply above 10oC. Among the tropical countries, India found to be most affected by mean diurnal temperature, and Brazil fazed by temperature seasonality. Most of the temperate countries like France, USA, Turkey, UK, and Germany with an average temperature between 5-12oC had high number of COVID-19 cases. The findings are expected to add to the ongoing debates on the influence of climatic factors influencing the number of COVID-19 cases and could help researchers and policymakers to make appropriate decisions for preventing the spread.

positive: Projections for COVID-19 pandemic in India and effect of temperature and humidity BACKGROUND AND AIMS: As, the COVID-19 has been deemed a pandemic by World Health Organization (WHO), and since it spreads everywhere throughout the world, investigation in relation to this disease is very much essential. Investigation of pattern in the occurrence of COVID-19, to check the influence of different meteorological factors on the incidence of COVID-19 and prediction of incidence of COVID-19 are the objectives of this paper. METHODS: For trend analysis, Sen's Slope and Man-Kendall test have been used, Generalized Additive Model (GAM) of regression has been used to check the influence of different meteorological factors on the incidence and to predict the frequency of COVID-19, and Verhulst (Logistic) Population Model has been used. RESULTS: Statistically significant linear trend found for the daily-confirmed cases of COVID-19. The regression analysis indicates that there is some influence of the interaction of average temperature (AT) and average relative humidity (ARH) on the incidence of COVID-19. However, this result is not consistent throughout the study area. The projections have been made up to 21st May, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Trend and regression analysis give an idea of the incidence of COVID-19 in India while projection made by Verhulst (Logistic) Population Model for the confirmed cases of the study area are encouraging as the sample prediction is as same as the actual number of confirmed COVID-19 cases.

positive: High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19 With the ongoing global pandemic of COVID-19, a question is whether the coming summer in the northern hemisphere will reduce the transmission intensity of COVID-19 with increased humidity and temperature. In this paper, we investigate this problem using the data from the cases with symptom-onset dates from January 19 to February 10, 2020 for 100 Chinese cities, and cases with confirmed dates from March 15 to April 25 for 1,005 U.S. counties. Statistical analysis is performed to assess the relationship between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the temperature/humidity, by controlling for various demographic, socio-economic, geographic, healthcare and policy factors and correcting for cross-sectional correlation. We find a similar influence of the temperature and relative humidity on effective reproductive number (R values) of COVID-19 for both China and the U.S. before lockdown in both countries: one-degree Celsius increase in temperature reduces R value by about 0.023 (0.026 (95% CI [-0.0395,-0.0125]) in China and 0.020 (95% CI [-0.0311, -0.0096]) in the U.S.), and one percent relative humidity rise reduces R value by 0.0078 (0.0076 (95% CI [-0.0108,-0.0045]) in China and 0.0080 (95% CI [-0.0150,-0.0010]) in the U.S.). If assuming a 30 degree and 25 percent increase in temperature and relative humidity from winter to summer in the northern hemisphere, we expect the R values to decline about 0.89 (0.69 by temperature and 0.20 by humidity). Given the notion that the non-intervened R values are around 2.5 to 3, only weather factors cannot make the R values below their critical condition of R<1, under which the epidemic diminishes gradually. Therefore, public health intervention such as social distancing is crucial to block the transmission of COVID-19 even in summer.

positive: Genetic drift and environmental spreading dynamics of COVID-19 Objective To delineate the genetic and environmental determinants of COVID-19 spreading. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Spain, Italy, Sweden, Finland, Norway. Participants All laboratory-confirmed infection cases (n=168,089) collected from February 21st to April 14th 2020. Main outcome measures Infection spreading velocity according to viral mutation load and to climate region. Results The mean doubling time of COVID-19 was 6.63 days in northern Italy, 5.87 days in central areas, and 5.38 days in southern Italy, with shorter COVID-19 doubling time in warmer regions. Spain extended this trend, with a mean COVID-19 doubling time of 4.2 days. At the other end of the spectrum, slower diffusion across progressively colder regions was observed in Scandinavia, with 9.4 days COVID-19 doubling time in Sweden, 10.8 days in Finland and 12.95 days in Norway. Mutations and mutation rates of SARS-CoV-2 versus COVID-19 spreading were analyzed worldwide. Models of increased aggressiveness of SARS-CoV-2 upon progressive acquisition of genetic changes were not supported by regional mutation data. Conclusion Current propagation models suggest dependence of COVID-19 pandemic spreading on wintertime conditions, with expected waning over the summer. Our findings indicate association of COVID-19 to a sharp North/South climate gradient, with faster spreading in southern regions. Thus, warmer climate conditions may not limit SARS-CoV-2 diffusion. Very cold regions may be better spared by recurrent courses of infection.

positive: COVID-19: Open-data resources for monitoring, modeling, and forecasting the epidemic We provide an insight into the open-data resources pertinent to the study of the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and its control. We identify the variables required to analyze fundamental aspects like seasonal behavior, regional mortality rates, and effectiveness of government measures. Open-data resources, along with data-driven methodologies, provide many opportunities to improve the response of the different administrations to the virus. We describe the present limitations and difficulties encountered in most of the open-data resources. To facilitate the access to the main open-data portals and resources, we identify the most relevant institutions, on a global scale, providing Covid-19 information and/or auxiliary variables (demographics, mobility, etc.). We also describe several open resources to access Covid-19 datasets at a country-wide level (i.e., China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, US, etc.). To facilitate the rapid response to the study of the seasonal behavior of Covid-19, we enumerate the main open resources in terms of weather and climate variables. We also assess the reusability of some representative open-data sources.

positive: Nature of transmission of Covid19 in India We examine available data on the number of individuals infected by the Covid-19 virus, across several different states in India, over the period January 30, 2020 to April 10, 2020. It is found that the growth of the number of infected individuals $N(t)$ can be modeled across different states with a simple linear function $N(t)=\gamma+\alpha t$ beyond the date when reasonable number of individuals were tested (and when a countrywide lockdown was imposed). The slope $\alpha$ is different for different states. Following recent work by Notari (arxiv:2003.12417), we then consider the dependency of the $\alpha$ for different states on the average maximum and minimum temperatures, the average relative humidity and the population density in each state. It turns out that like other countries, the parameter $\alpha$, which determines the rate of rise of the number of infected individuals, seems to have a weak correlation with the average maximum temperature of the state. In contrast, any significant variation of $\alpha$ with humidity or minimum temperature seems absent with almost no meaningful correlation. Expectedly, $\alpha$ increases (slightly) with increase in the population density of the states; however, the degree of correlation here too is negligible. These results seem to barely suggest that a natural cause like a hot summer (larger maximum temperatures) may contribute towards reducing the transmission of the virus, though the role of minimum temperature, humidity and population density remains somewhat obscure from the inferences which may be drawn from presently available data.

positive: Risk assessment strategies for early detection and prediction of infectious disease outbreaks associated with climate change. A new generation of surveillance strategies is being developed to help detect emerging infections and to identify the increased risks of infectious disease outbreaks that are expected to occur with climate change. These surveillance strategies include event-based surveillance (EBS) systems and risk modelling. The EBS systems use open-source internet data, such as media reports, official reports, and social media (such as Twitter) to detect evidence of an emerging threat, and can be used in conjunction with conventional surveillance systems to enhance early warning of public health threats. More recently, EBS systems include artificial intelligence applications such machine learning and natural language processing to increase the speed, capacity and accuracy of filtering, classifying and analysing health-related internet data. Risk modelling uses statistical and mathematical methods to assess the severity of disease emergence and spread given factors about the host (e.g. number of reported cases), pathogen (e.g. pathogenicity) and environment (e.g. climate suitability for reservoir populations). The types of data in these models are expanding to include health-related information from open-source internet data and information on mobility patterns of humans and goods. This information is helping to identify susceptible populations and predict the pathways from which infections might spread into new areas and new countries. As a powerful addition to traditional surveillance strategies that identify what has already happened, it is anticipated that EBS systems and risk modelling will increasingly be used to inform public health actions to prevent, detect and mitigate the climate change increases in infectious diseases.

positive: A case-crossover analysis of the impact of weather on primary cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome BACKGROUND: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is endemic in dromedary camels in the Arabian Peninsula, and zoonotic transmission to people is a sporadic event. In the absence of epidemiological data on the reservoir species, patterns of zoonotic transmission have largely been approximated from primary human cases. This study aimed to identify meteorological factors that may increase the risk of primary MERS infections in humans. METHODS: A case-crossover design was used to identify associations between primary MERS cases and preceding weather conditions within the 2-week incubation period in Saudi Arabia using univariable conditional logistic regression. Cases with symptom onset between January 2015 – December 2017 were obtained from a publicly available line list of human MERS cases maintained by the World Health Organization. The complete case dataset (N = 1191) was reduced to approximate the cases most likely to represent spillover transmission from camels (N = 446). Data from meteorological stations closest to the largest city in each province were used to calculate the daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature ((ο)C), relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and visibility (m). Weather variables were categorized according to strata; temperature and humidity into tertiles, and visibility and wind speed into halves. RESULTS: Lowest temperature (Odds Ratio = 1.27; 95% Confidence Interval = 1.04–1.56) and humidity (OR = 1.35; 95% CI = 1.10–1.65) were associated with increased cases 8–10 days later. High visibility was associated with an increased number of cases 7 days later (OR = 1.26; 95% CI = 1.01–1.57), while wind speed also showed statistically significant associations with cases 5–6 days later. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that primary MERS human cases in Saudi Arabia are more likely to occur when conditions are relatively cold and dry. This is similar to seasonal patterns that have been described for other respiratory diseases in temperate climates. It was hypothesized that low visibility would be positively associated with primary cases of MERS, however the opposite relationship was seen. This may reflect behavioural changes in different weather conditions. This analysis provides key initial evidence of an environmental component contributing to the development of primary MERS-CoV infections.

positive: Assessing the relationship between surface levels of PM2.5 and PM10 particulate matter impact on COVID-19 in Milan, Italy The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly pathogenic, transmittable and invasive pneumococcal disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerged in December 2019 and January 2020 in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China and fast spread later on the middle of February 2020 in the Northern part of Italy and Europe. This study investigates the correlation between the degree of accelerated diffusion and lethality of COVID-19 and the surface air pollution in Milan metropolitan area, Lombardy region, Italy. Daily average concentrations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) in two size fractions PM2.5, PM10 and maxima PM10 ground level atmospheric pollutants together air quality and climate variables (daily average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure field and Planetary Boundary Layer-PBL height) collected during 1 January-30 April 2020 were analyzed. In spite of being considered primarily transmitted by indoor bioaerosols droplets and infected surfaces, or direct human-to-human personal contacts, it seems that high levels of urban air pollution, weather and specific climate conditions have a significant impact on the increased rates of confirmed COVID-19 Total number, Daily New and Total Deaths cases, possible attributed not only to indoor but also to outdoor airborne bioaerosols distribution. Our analysis demonstrates the strong influence of daily averaged ground levels of particulate matter concentrations, positively associated with average surface air temperature and inversely related to air relative humidity on COVID-19 cases outbreak in Milan. Being a novel pandemic coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) version, COVID-19 might be ongoing during summer conditions associated with higher temperatures and low humidity levels. Presently is not clear if this protein "spike" of the new coronavirus COVID-19 is involved through attachment mechanisms on indoor or outdoor airborne aerosols in the infectious agent transmission from a reservoir to a susceptible host in some agglomerated urban areas like Milan is.

positive: Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus likely to be constrained by climate As new cases of COVID-19 are being confirmed pressure is mounting to increase understanding of the factors underlying the spread the disease. Using data on local transmissions until the 23rd of March 2020, we develop an ensemble of 200 ecological niche models to project monthly variation in climate suitability for spread of SARS-CoV-2 throughout a typical climatological year. Although cases of COVID-19 are reported all over the world, most outbreaks display a pattern of clustering in relatively cool and dry areas. The predecessor SARS-CoV-1 was linked to similar climate conditions. Should the spread of SARS CoV-2 continue to follow current trends, asynchronous seasonal global outbreaks could be expected. According to the models, temperate warm and cold climates are more favorable to spread of the virus, whereas arid and tropical climates are less favorable. However, model uncertainties are still high across much of sub- Saharan Africa, Latin America and South East Asia. While models of epidemic spread utilize human demography and mobility as predictors, climate can also help constrain the virus. This is because the environment can mediate human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and unsuitable climates can cause the virus to destabilize quickly, hence reducing its capacity to become epidemic.

positive: The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity Quantifying the role of temperature and humidity on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been confounded by a lack of controlled experiments, the sudden rise in detection rates, and changing weather patterns. In this paper we focus our analysis on data from Colombia, which presents unique economic, demographic and geological characteristics that favor the study of temperature and humidity upon SARS-CoV-2 transmission: the weather varies dramatically across five natural regions (from the Caribbean coast and the Amazon rainforest to the Andean mountains), there are no pronounced seasons, there is a central port of entry, the use of public transportation dominates inter- and intracity travel, and indoor climate control is rare. While only controlled experiments can precisely quantify the role of temperature and humidity upon SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we observe significant attenuation of transmission in climates with sustained daily maximum temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius and simultaneous mean relative humidity below 78%. We hypothesize that temperature and relative humidity comodulate the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 within respiratory droplets.

positive: Ancestral origin, antigenic resemblance and epidemiological insights of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): Global burden and Bangladesh perspective SARS-CoV-2, a new coronavirus strain responsible for COVID-19 has emerged in Wuhan City, China and still continuing its worldwide pandemic nature. Considering the severity of the disease, a number of studies are underway, and full genomic sequences have already been released in the last few weeks to enable the understanding of the evolutionary origin and molecular characteristics of this virus. Bioinformatics analysis, satellite derived imaging data and epidemiological attributes were employed to investigate origin, immunogenic resemblance and global threat of newly pandemic SARS-CoV-2 including Bangladesh perspective. Based on currently available genomic information, a phylogeny study was employed focusing four types of representative viral proteins (spike, membrane, envelope and nucleoprotein) of SARS-CoV-2, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, SARS-CoV, HCoV-NL63, HKU1, MERS-CoV, HKU4, HKU5 and BufCoV-HKU26. The findings clearly demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 exhibited evolutionary convergent relation with previously reported SARS-CoV. It was also found that SARS-CoV-2 proteins were highly similar and identical to SARS-CoV proteins, though proteins from other coronaviruses showed lower level of similarity and identical patterns. The cross-checked conservancy analysis of SARS-CoV-2 antigenic epitopes showed significant conservancy with antigenic epitopes derived from SARS-CoV. The study also prioritized the temperature comparison through satellite imaging alongside compiling and analyzing the epidemiological outbreak information on the 2019 novel coronavirus based on several open datasets on COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) and discussed possible threats to Bangladesh.

positive: Prioritizing and Analyzing the Role of Climate and Urban Parameters in the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 Based on Artificial Intelligence Applications Nowadays, an infectious disease outbreak is considered one of the most destructive effects in the sustainable development process. The outbreak of new coronavirus (COVID-19) as an infectious disease showed that it has undesirable social, environmental, and economic impacts, and leads to serious challenges and threats. Additionally, investigating the prioritization parameters is of vital importance to reducing the negative impacts of this global crisis. Hence, the main aim of this study is to prioritize and analyze the role of certain environmental parameters. For this purpose, four cities in Italy were selected as a case study and some notable climate parameters—such as daily average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed—and an urban parameter, population density, were considered as input data set, with confirmed cases of COVID-19 being the output dataset. In this paper, two artificial intelligence techniques, including an artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and differential evolution (DE) algorithm, were used for prioritizing climate and urban parameters. The analysis is based on the feature selection process and then the obtained results from the proposed models compared to select the best one. Finally, the difference in cost function was about 0.0001 between the performances of the two models, hence, the two methods were not different in cost function, however, ANN-PSO was found to be better, because it reached to the desired precision level in lesser iterations than ANN-DE. In addition, the priority of two variables, urban parameter, and relative humidity, were the highest to predict the confirmed cases of COVID-19.

positive: Role of a Habitat's Air Humidity in Covid-19 Mortality Transient local over-dry environment might be a contributor and an explanation for the observed asynchronous local rises in Covid-19 mortality. We propose that a habitat's air humidity negatively correlate with Covid-19 morbidity and mortality, and support this hypothesis on the example of publicly available data from German federal states.

positive: COVID‐19: A relationship to climate and environmental conditions?

positive: Impact of weather on COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey Abstract The coronavirus pandemic, which has numerous global implications, has led people to believe that nothing will be the same as before. The present day is dominated by studies on determining the factors that affect, taking preventive actions, and trying to find an effective treatment on top priority. Meteorological parameters are among the crucial factors affecting infectious diseases. The present study examines the correlation between weather and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by considering nine cities in Turkey. In this regard, temperature (°C), dew point (°C), humidity (%), and wind speed (mph) are considered as parameters of weather. Research states that the incubation period of COVID-19 varies from 1 day to 14 days. Therefore, the effects of each parameter within 1, 3, 7, and 14 days are examined. In addition, the population is included as an effective parameter for evaluation. The analyses are conducted based on Spearman's correlation coefficients. The results showed that the highest correlations were observed for population, wind speed 14 days ago, and temperature on the day, respectively. The study results may guide authorities and decision-makers on taking specific measures for the cities.

positive: Influence of meteorological factors and air pollution on the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome Summary Objectives To understand the association between the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and meteorological factors and air pollution. Study design An ecological study was conducted. Methods Three hundred and fifty primary probable SARS cases diagnosed in mainland China between 1 January and 31 May 2003, and their 6727 close contacts during the period of their clinical symptoms before admission, were included in this study. Of the 6727 close contacts, 135 (2.0%) later developed clinical symptoms and were diagnosed as probable SARS cases. The daily meteorological data and daily air pollution data during the same SARS outbreak period in mainland China were used in the data analysis. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the association between the secondary attack rate of SARS and meteorological factors and air pollution. Results In univariate analyses, daily average temperature (DAT), daily average air pressure (DAAP), and daily average relative humidity (DARH) were inversely associated with secondary attack rate (P<0.001); a significant positive association was found for daily hours of sunshine (DHS) (P<0.001). In multivariate analyses, factors associated with secondary attack rate were DAAP (odds ratio (OR)=0.53, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.42, 0.66), DARH (OR=0.73, 95% CI: 0.53, 1.00), and daily average wind velocity (DAWV; OR=0.81, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.96). Adjustment for the onset time of a primary case led to little change in the results. In addition, in Hebei Province, a major affected area in China, only DAWV (OR=0.38, 95% CI: 0.20, 0.72) was a significant predictor of secondary attack rate with adjustment for the onset time of primary case. In Inner Mongolia, another major affected area in China, DAWV (OR=0.50, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.94) and DHS (OR=0.27, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.81) were significant predictors of secondary attack rate with adjustment for the onset time of primary case. Conclusions Our results suggest that the SARS outbreak was significantly associated with DAWV, and that DAAP, DARH and DHS may also have influenced the SARS outbreak to some extent. However, because of ecological fallacy and uncontrolled confounding effects that may have biased the results, the association between the SARS outbreak and these meteorological factors and air pollution deserve further investigation.

positive: Impacts of regional climate on the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has led to six million confirmed cases by May 31, 2020. Impacts of regional weather and climate on epidemics have been investigated but need further study with new methods. We combined the number of monthly confirmed new cases and death with month, latitude, temperature, humidity, rainfall, and sunshine ultraviolet (UV) to explore the climate impact on epidemics in 116 countries and territories with at least 1000 confirmed cases. Correlation and regression analyses were performed with Stata. Humid subtropical climate regions had the most confirmed COVID-19 cases (24.4%). The case mortality in temperate marine regions was the highest (11.6%). Case-weighted means of the latitude, monthly maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, and sunshine UV were 36.7 degrees, 20.5, 63%, 63mm, and 53.5, respectively. The case mortality was 7.44% in cold regions but only 4.68% in hot regions, 7.14% in rainy regions but only 3.86% in rainless regions, and 7.40% in cloudy regions but only 4.64% in sunny regions. Monthly confirmed cases increase as the temperature, rainfall, and sunshine UV rise in cold regions (r=0.34, 0.26, 0.26, respectively), but no correlation in hot regions. Every 1 increase in monthly maximum temperature leads to an increase in the natural logarithm of monthly confirmed new cases by 2.4% in cold regions. Monthly confirmed cases increase as the temperature, rainfall, and sunshine UV rise in arid regions (r=0.29, 0.28, 0.26, respectively), but no correlation in humid regions. Monthly confirmed new cases increase as the temperature and sunshine UV rise in rainy regions (r=0.30, 0.29), but no correlation in rainless regions. Monthly confirmed new deaths increase as the temperature and sunshine UV rise in cloudy regions (r=0.30, 0.30), but no correlation in sunny regions. It is wise to escape from an epicenter full of miasma to a hot sunny place in dry season without pollution. As peaking in the spring depends on the climate, the peak will go in the summer.

positive: The Effects of "Fangcang, Huoshenshan, and Leishenshan" Makeshift Hospitals and Temperature on the Mortality of COVID-19 Background In December 2019, a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China, however, the factors affecting the mortality remain unclear. Methods Thirty-two days of data that were shared by China National Health Commission and China Weather Net were collected using standard forms. The difference in the mortality of confirmed and severe cases before and after the use of Fangcang, Huoshenshan, and Leishenshan makeshift hospitals (MSHs) was tested using Mann-Whitney U test. We also studied whether air temperature (AT) could affect the above outcomes of COVID-19 cases by performing Spearman analysis. Results The mortality of confirmed cases was significantly decreased both in Wuhan (U = 1, P < 0.001) and Hubei (U = 0, P < 0.001), while in non-Hubei regions, as a contrast, the mortality of confirmed cases remained unchanged (U = 40, P = 0.139). However, another eight days later, changes in the mortality in non-Hubei regions also became significant (U = 73, P = 0.039). Mortality of confirmed cases was found to be significantly correlated with temperature both in Wuhan (r = -0.441, P = 0.012) and Hubei (r = -0.440, P = 0.012). Conclusions Our findings indicated that both the use of MSHs and the rise of AT were beneficial to the survival of COVID-19 cases.

positive: Correlation Analysis of Rubella Incidence and Meteorological Variables Based on Chinese Medicine Theory of Yunqi OBJECTIVE: To analyze the correlations between the incidence of rubella and meteorological factors over the same period and previous periods including 1, 2, 3 and 4 year ago (defined according to Chinese medicine Yunqi theory of "pestilence occurring after 3 years") and establish the rubella-meteorological forecast models for Beijing area, China. METHODS: Data regarding the incidence of rubella between 1990 and 2004 from Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and the meteorological variables including daily average temperatures, daily average wind speeds, average precipitations, average relative humidity, average vapor pressures and average low cloud covers between 1986 and 2004 were collected from the Beijing Meteorological Observatory. Descriptive statistics and back-propagation artificial neural network for forecast model’s establishment were adopted for data analysis. RESULTS: The average temperature and relative humidity have a great contribution (100%) to the rubella morbidity. But the combination of other meteorological factors contributed to improve the accuracy of rubella-meteorological forecast models. The forecast accuracy could be improved by 76% through utilizing a combination of meteorological variables spanning from 3 years ago to the present rather than utilizing data from a single year or dating back to more earlier time than 3 years. CONCLUSIONS: There is a close relationship between the incidence of rubella and meteorological variables in current year and previous 3 years. This finding suggests that rubella prediction would benefit from consideration to previous climate changes.

positive: Susceptibility and Sustainability of India against CoVid19: a multivariate approach Purpose: We are currently in the middle of a global crisis. Covid19 pandemic has suddenly threatened the existence of human life. Till date, as no medicine or vaccine is discovered, the best way to fight against this pandemic is prevention. The impact of different environmental, social, economic and health parameters is unknown and under research. It is important to identify the factors which can weaken the virus, and the nations which are more vulnerable to this virus. Materials and Methods: Data of weather, vaccination trends, life expectancy, lung disease, number of infected people in the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown period of highly infected nations are collected. These are extracted from authentic online resources and published reports. Analysis is done to find the possible impact of each parameter on CoVid19. Results: CoVid19 has no linear correlation with any of the selected parameters, though few parameters have depicted non-linear relationship in the graphs. Further investigations have shown better result for some parameters. A combination of the parameters results in a better correlation with infection rate. Conclusions: Though depending on the study outcome, the impact of CoVid19 in India can be predicted, the required lockdown period cannot be calculated due to data limitation.

positive: Climatic changes and their role in emergence and re-emergence of diseases Global warming and the associated climate changes are predictable. They are enhanced by burning of fossil fuels and the emission of huge amounts of CO(2) gas which resulted in greenhouse effect. It is expected that the average global temperature will increase with 2–5 °C in the next decades. As a result, the earth will exhibit marked climatic changes characterized by extremer weather events in the coming decades, such as the increase in temperature, rainfall, summertime, droughts, more frequent and stronger tornadoes and hurricanes. Epidemiological disease cycle includes host, pathogen and in certain cases intermediate host/vector. A complex mixture of various environmental conditions (e.g. temperature and humidity) determines the suitable habitat/ecological niche for every vector host. The availability of suitable vectors is a precondition for the emergence of vector-borne pathogens. Climate changes and global warming will have catastrophic effects on human, animal and environmental ecosystems. Pathogens, especially neglected tropical disease agents, are expected to emerge and re-emerge in several countries including Europe and North America. The lives of millions of people especially in developing countries will be at risk in direct and indirect ways. In the present review, the role of climate changes in the spread of infectious agents and their vectors is discussed. Examples of the major emerging viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases are also summarized.

positive: Isolation and identification of human coronavirus 229E from frequently touched environmental surfaces of a university classroom that is cleaned daily Frequently touched surfaces of a university classroom that is cleaned daily contained viable human coronavirus 229E (CoV-229E). Tests of a CoV-229E laboratory strain under conditions that simulated the ambient light, temperature, and relative humidity conditions of the classroom revealed that some of the virus remained viable on various surfaces for 7 days, suggesting CoV-229E is relatively stable in the environment. Our findings reinforce the notion that contact transmission may be possible for this virus.

positive: Assessing the relationship between ground levels of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with coronavirus (COVID-19) in Milan, Italy This paper investigates the correlation between the high level of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection accelerated transmission and lethality, and surface air pollution in Milan metropolitan area, Lombardy region in Italy. For January-April 2020 period, time series of daily average inhalable gaseous pollutants ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), together climate variables (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation rate, atmospheric pressure field and Planetary Boundary Layer) were analyzed. In spite of being considered primarily transmitted by indoor bioaerosols droplets and infected surfaces or direct human-to-human personal contacts, it seems that high levels of urban air pollution, and climate conditions have a significant impact on SARS-CoV-2 diffusion. Exhibited positive correlations of ambient ozone levels and negative correlations of NO2 with the increased rates of COVID-19 infections (Total number, Daily New positive and Total Deaths cases), can be attributed to airborne bioaerosols distribution. The results show positive correlation of daily averaged O3 with air temperature and inversely correlations with relative humidity and precipitation rates. Viral genome contains distinctive features, including a unique N-terminal fragment within the spike protein, which allows coronavirus attachment on ambient air pollutants. At this moment it is not clear if through airborne diffusion, in the presence of outdoor and indoor aerosols, this protein "spike" of the new COVID-19 is involved in the infectious agent transmission from a reservoir to a susceptible host during the highest nosocomial outbreak in some agglomerated industrialized urban areas like Milan is. Also, in spite of collected data for cold season (winter-early spring) period, when usually ozone levels have lower values than in summer, the findings of this study support possibility as O3 can acts as a COVID-19 virus incubator. Being a novel pandemic coronavirus version, it might be ongoing during summer conditions associated with higher air temperatures, low relative humidity and precipitation levels.

positive: Global Warming and Its Health Impact Since the mid-19(th) century, human activities have increased greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth's atmosphere that resulted in increased average temperature. The effects of rising temperature include soil degradation, loss of productivity of agricultural land, desertification, loss of biodiversity, degradation of ecosystems, reduced fresh-water resources, acidification of the oceans, and the disruption and depletion of stratospheric ozone. All these have an impact on human health, causing non-communicable diseases such as injuries during natural disasters, malnutrition during famine, and increased mortality during heat waves due to complications in chronically ill patients. Direct exposure to natural disasters has also an impact on mental health and, although too complex to be quantified, a link has even been established between climate and civil violence. Over time, climate change can reduce agricultural resources through reduced availability of water, alterations and shrinking arable land, increased pollution, accumulation of toxic substances in the food chain, and creation of habitats suitable to the transmission of human and animal pathogens. People living in low-income countries are particularly vulnerable. Climate change scenarios include a change in distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extreme events. After floods, increased cases of leptospirosis, campylobacter infections and cryptosporidiosis are reported. Global warming affects water heating, rising the transmission of water-borne pathogens. Pathogens transmitted by vectors are particularly sensitive to climate change because they spend a good part of their life cycle in a cold-blooded host invertebrate whose temperature is similar to the environment. A warmer climate presents more favorable conditions for the survival and the completion of the life cycle of the vector, going as far as to speed it up as in the case of mosquitoes. Diseases transmitted by mosquitoes include some of the most widespread worldwide illnesses such as malaria and viral diseases. Tick-borne diseases have increased in the past years in cold regions, because rising temperatures accelerate the cycle of development, the production of eggs, and the density and distribution of the tick population. The areas of presence of ticks and diseases that they can transmit have increased, both in terms of geographical extension than in altitude. In the next years the engagement of the health sector would be working to develop prevention and adaptation programs in order to reduce the costs and burden of climate change.

positive: Factors determining the diffusion of COVID-19 and suggested strategy to prevent future accelerated viral infectivity similar to COVID This study has two goals. The first is to explain the geo-environmental determinants of the accelerated diffusion of COVID-19 that is generating a high level of deaths. The second is to suggest a strategy to cope with future epidemic threats similar to COVID-19 having an accelerated viral infectivity in society. Using data on sample of N = 55 Italian province capitals, and data of infected individuals at as of April 7th, 2020, results reveal that the accelerate and vast diffusion of COVID-19 in North Italy has a high association with air pollution of cities measured with days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (particulate matter 10 µm or less in diameter) or ozone. In particular, hinterland cities with average high number of days exceeding the limits set for PM10 (and also having a low wind speed) have a very high number of infected people on 7th April 2020 (arithmetic mean is about 2200 infected individuals, with average polluted days greater than 80 days per year), whereas coastal cities also having days exceeding the limits set for PM10 or ozone but with high wind speed have about 944.70 average infected individuals, with about 60 average polluted days per year; moreover, cities having more than 100 days of air pollution (exceeding the limits set for PM10), they have a very high average number of infected people (about 3350 infected individuals, 7th April 2020), whereas cities having less than 100 days of air pollution per year, they have a lower average number of infected people (about 1014 individuals). The findings here also suggest that to minimize the impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19, the max number of days per year that Italian provincial capitals or similar industrialized cities can exceed the limits set for PM10 or for ozone, considering their meteorological conditions, is about 48 days. Moreover, results here reveal that the explanatory variable of air pollution in cities seems to be a more important predictor in the initial phase of diffusion of viral infectivity (on 17th March 2020, b1 = 1.27, p < 0.001) than interpersonal contacts (b2 = 0.31, p < 0.05). In the second phase of maturity of the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, air pollution reduces intensity (on 7th April 2020 with b'1 = 0.81, p < 0.001) also because of the indirect effect of lockdown, whereas regression coefficient of transmission based on interpersonal contacts has a stable level (b'2 = 0.31, p < 0.01). This result reveals that accelerated transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is due to mainly to the mechanism of "air pollution-to-human transmission" (airborne viral infectivity) rather than "human-to-human transmission". Overall, then, transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, such as COVID-19, is due to systemic causes: general factors that are the same for all regions (e.g., biological characteristics of virus, incubation period, etc.) and specific factors which are different for each region and/or city (e.g., complex interaction between air pollution, meteorological conditions and biological characteristics of viral infectivity) and health level of individuals (habits, immune system, age, sex, etc.). Lessons learned for COVID-19 in the case study here suggest that a proactive strategy to cope with future epidemics is also to apply especially an environmental and sustainable policy based on reduction of levels of air pollution mainly in hinterland and polluting cities- (having low wind speed, high percentage of moisture and number of fog days) -that seem to have an environment that foster a fast transmission dynamics of viral infectivity in society. Hence, in the presence of polluting industrialization in regions that can trigger the mechanism of air pollution-to-human transmission dynamics of viral infectivity, this study must conclude that a comprehensive strategy to prevent future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be also designed in environmental and socioeconomic terms, that is also based on sustainability science and environmental science, and not only in terms of biology, medicine, healthcare and health sector.

positive: Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu BACKGROUND: The new coronavirus disease COVID-19 began in December 2019 and has spread rapidly by human-to-human transmission. This study evaluated the transmissibility of the infectious disease and analyzed its association with temperature and humidity to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19. METHODS: In this study, we revised the reported data in Wuhan based on several assumptions to estimate the actual number of confirmed cases considering that perhaps not all cases could be detected and reported in the complex situation there. Then we used the equation derived from the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to calculate R0 from January 24, 2020 to February 13, 2020 in 11 major cities in China for comparison. With the calculation results, we conducted correlation analysis and regression analysis between R0 and temperature and humidity for four major cities in China to see the association between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the weather variables. RESULTS: It was estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases had exceeded 45 000 by February 13, 2020 in Wuhan. The average R0 in Wuhan was 2.7, significantly higher than those in other cities ranging from 1.8 to 2.4. The inflection points in the cities outside Hubei Province were between January 30, 2020 and February 3, 2020, while there had not been an obvious downward trend of R0 in Wuhan. R0 negatively correlated with both temperature and humidity, which was significant at the 0.01 level. CONCLUSIONS: The transmissibility of COVID-19 was strong and importance should be attached to the intervention of its transmission especially in Wuhan. According to the correlation between R0 and weather, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms.

positive: A Preliminary Investigation on the Statistical Correlations between SARS-CoV-2 Spread and Local Meteorology The statistical correlation between meteorological parameters and the spread of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) was investigated in five provinces of Italy selected according to the number of infected individuals and the different trends of infection in the early stages of the epidemic: Bergamo and Brescia showed some of the highest trends of infections while nearby Cremona and Mantova, showed lower trends. Pesaro–Urbino province was included for further investigation as it was comparably affected by the epidemic despite being the area far from the Po valley. Moving means of the variables were considered to take into account the variability of incubation periods and uncertainties in the epidemiological data. The same analyzes were performed normalizing the number of new daily cases based on the number of checks performed. For each province, the moving mean of adjusted and unadjusted new daily cases were independently plotted versus each meteorological parameter, and linear regressions were determined in the period from 29th of February 2020 to 29th of March 2020. Strong positive correlations were observed between new cases and temperatures within three provinces representing 86.5% of the contagions. Strong negative correlations were observed between the moving means of new cases and relative humidity values for four provinces and more than 90% of the contagions.

positive: Meteorological factors correlate with transmission of 2019-nCoV: Proof of incidence of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Hubei Province, China Objective: many potential factors contribute to the outbreak of COVID-19.It aims to explore the effects of various meteorological factors on the incidence of COVID-19. Methods: Taking Hubei province of China as an example, where COVID-19 was first reported and there were the most cases, we collected 53 days of confirmed cases (total 67773 cases) and ten meteorological parameters up to March 10. Correlation analysis and linear regression were used to judge the relationship of meteorological factors and increment of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Results: Under 95% CI, the increment of confirmed cases in Hubei were correlated with four meteorological parameters of average pressure, average temperature, minimum temperature and average water vapor pressure (equivalent to absolute humidity).The average pressure was positively correlated with the increment (r=+0.358).The negative correlations included average temperature (r=-0.306), minimum temperature (r=-0.347), and average water vapor pressure (r=-0.326). The linear regression results show if minimum temperature increases by 1℃, the incremental confirmed cases in Hubei decreases by 72.470 units on average. Conclusion: Statistically, the incidence of COVID-19 was correlated with average pressure, average temperature, minimum temperature and average water vapor pressure. It is positively correlated with the average pressure and negatively correlated with the other three parameters. Compared with relative humidity, 2019-nCov is more sensitive to water vapor pressure. The reason why the epidemic situation in Hubei expanded rapidly is significantly related to the climate characteristics of low temperature and dryness of Hubei in winter.

positive: Spring Weather and COVID-19 Deaths in the U.S. This study used statistically robust regression models to control for a large set of confounders (including county-level time-invariant factors and time trends, regional-level daily variation, state-level social distancing measures, ultraviolet light, and levels of ozone and fine particulate matter, PM2.5) to estimate a reliable rather than simple regression for the impact of weather on the most accurately measured outcome of COVID-19, death. When the average minimum temperature within a five-day window increased by one degree Fahrenheit in spring 2020, daily death rates in northern U.S. counties increased by an estimated 5.1%. When ozone concentration over a five-day window rose by one part per billion, daily death rates in southern U.S. counties declined by approximately 2.0%. Maximum temperature, precipitation, PM2.5, and ultraviolet light did not significantly associate with COVID-19 mortality. The mechanism that may drive the observed association of minimum temperature on COVID-19 deaths in spring months may be increased mobility and contacts. The effect of ozone may be related to its disinfectant properties, but this requires further confirmation.

positive: Effects of weather and policy intervention on COVID-19 infection in Ghana Even though laboratory and epidemiological studies have demonstrated the effects of ambient temperature on the transmission and survival of coronaviruses, not much has been done on the effects of weather on the spread of COVID-19. This study investigates the effects of temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and the specific government policy intervention of partial lockdown on the new cases of COVID-19 infection in Ghana. Daily data on confirmed cases of COVID-19 from March 13, 2020 to April 21, 2020 were obtained from the official website of Our World in Data (OWID) dedicated to COVID-19 while satellite climate data for the same period was obtained from the official website of NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project. Considering the nature of the data and the objectives of the study, a time series generalized linear model which allows for regressing on past observations of the response variable and covariates was used for model fitting. The results indicate significant effects of maximum temperature, relative humidity and precipitation in predicting new cases of the disease. Also, results of the intervention analysis indicate that the null hypothesis of no significant effect of the specific policy intervention of partial lockdown should be rejected (p-value=0.0164) at a 5\% level of significance. These findings provide useful insights for policymakers and the public.

positive: Public health measures to slow community spread of COVID-19 ;The Journal of Infectious Diseases ;Oxford Academic COVID-19 was initially identified in an outbreak of viral pneumonia in Wuhan in December 2019, and has now been recognized in 77 countries with over 90,000 laboratory-confirmed cases and over 3,000 deaths as of 3 March 2020 [1] The epidemiology of COVID-19 has recently become clearer as incident cases continue to rise and researchers refine estimates of the severity, transmissibility, and populations affected Based on available data, COVID-19 is efficiently transmitted in the community, and the proportion of infections leading to severe illness is particularly high among adults ≥50 years of age and among individuals with comorbid health conditions Although rare, severe cases have also been reported among younger individuals Thus far, the estimated basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19 is higher than that of influenza [2], as is the case fatality risk for adults and older individuals An estimated 80% of COVID-19 cases are mild [1] This is not a glass half full statistic, as 20% of infections result in clinically severe cases that have the potential to overwhelm already overburdened health facilities Given the lack of vaccines and effective antivirals, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the most effective available interventions for local and global control and mitigation of COVID-19 To date, measures aimed at slowing introduction of infection globally have included travel restrictions, isolation of confirmed cases, and quarantine of exposed persons In the United States, NPIs have reduced the number of infected persons entering the country, but recent outbreaks in multiple US states make it clear that these measures have delayed but not prevented community transmission In 2009, NPIs were able to delay large epidemic waves of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in some locations until after the summer, since influenza transmission tends to be reduced by higher temperatures and humidity It is unclear whether COVID-19 transmission will be heavily affected by seasonal weather variation, given that transmission is now occurring in multiple tropical and sub-tropical locations

positive: Open Data Resources for Fighting COVID-19 We provide an insight into the open data resources pertinent to the study of the spread of Covid-19 pandemic and its control. We identify the variables required to analyze fundamental aspects like seasonal behaviour, regional mortality rates, and effectiveness of government measures. Open data resources, along with data-driven methodologies, provide many opportunities to improve the response of the different administrations to the virus. We describe the present limitations and difficulties encountered in most of the open-data resources. To facilitate the access to the main open-data portals and resources, we identify the most relevant institutions, at a world scale, providing Covid-19 information and/or auxiliary variables (demographics, mobility, etc.). We also describe several open resources to access Covid-19 data-sets at a country-wide level (i.e. China, Italy, Spain, France, Germany, U.S., etc.). In an attempt to facilitate the rapid response to the study of the seasonal behaviour of Covid-19, we enumerate the main open resources in terms of weather and climate variables. CONCO-Team: The authors of this paper belong to the CONtrol COvid-19 Team, which is composed of different researches from universities of Spain, Italy, France, Germany, United Kingdom and Argentina. The main goal of CONCO-Team is to develop data-driven methods for the better understanding and control of the pandemic.

positive: Sunlight exposure increased Covid-19 recovery rates: A study in the central pandemic area of Indonesia Abstract This study aims to present the correlation between sunlight exposure and Covid-19 statuses in Jakarta, Indonesia. The secondary data analysis was derived from surveillance data for Covid-19 from government authorities, including the Ministry of Health, the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency, and the local government of Jakarta. Three statuses related to Covid-19 were examined in the study: incidence, death, and recovered. Meanwhile, sunlight exposure was presented as daily duration of it. Only the number of recovered patients correlated significantly with sunlight exposure (p-value = .025; r = 0.350). This study's findings showed that sunlight exposure was associated with recovery from Covid-19.

positive: Climate effect on COVID-19 spread rate: an online surveillance tool Background: COVID-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for societies, healthcare organizations and economies. In the present analysis we coupled climate data with COVID-19 spread rates worldwide, and in a single country (USA). Methods: Data of confirmed COVID-19 cases was derived from the COVID-19 Global Cases by the CSSE at Johns Hopkins University up to March 19, 2020. We assessed disease spread by two measures: replication rate (RR), the slope of the logarithmic curve of confirmed cases, and the rate of spread (RoS), the slope of the linear regression of the logarithmic curve. Results: Based on predefined criteria, the mean COVID-19 RR was significantly lower in warm climate countries (0.12± 0.02) compared with cold countries (0.24± 0.01), (P<0.0001). Similarly, RoS was significantly lower in warm climate countries 0.12± 0.02 vs. 0.25± 0.01 than in cold climate countries (P<0.001). In all countries (independent of climate classification) both RR and RoS displayed a moderate negative correlation with temperature R= -0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001 and R= -0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.87 to -0.36; P<0.001, respectively. We identified a similar moderate negative correlation with the dew point temperature. Additional climate variables did not display a significant correlation with neither RR nor RoS. Finally, in an ancillary analysis, COVID-19 intra-country model using an inter-state analysis of the USA did not identify yet correlation between climate parameters and RR or RoS as of March, 19, 2020. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests a plausible negative correlation between warmer climate and COVID-19 spread rate as defined by RR and RoS worldwide. This initial correlation should be interpreted cautiously and be further validated over time, the pandemic is at different stages in various countries as well as in regions within these countries. As such, some associations may be more affected by local transmission patterns rather than by climate. Importantly, we provide an online surveillance dashboard (https://covid19.net.technion.ac.il/) to further assess the association between climate parameters and outbreak dynamics worldwide as time goes by

positive: Short-Term Effects of Ambient Ozone, PM(2.5,) and Meteorological Factors on COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths in Queens, New York The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, has been rapidly increasing in the United States. Boroughs of New York City, including Queens county, turn out to be the epicenters of this infection. According to the data provided by the New York State Department of Health, most of the cases of new COVID-19 infections in New York City have been found in the Queens county where 42,023 people have tested positive, and 3221 people have died as of 20 April 2020. Person-to-person transmission and travels were implicated in the initial spread of the outbreaks, but factors related to the late phase of rapidly spreading outbreaks in March and April are still uncertain. A few previous studies have explored the links between air pollution and COVID-19 infections, but more data is needed to understand the effects of short-term exposures of air pollutants and meteorological factors on the spread of COVID-19 infections, particularly in the U.S. disease epicenters. In this study, we have focused on ozone and PM(2.5), two major air pollutants in New York City, which were previously found to be associated with respiratory viral infections. The aim of our regression modeling was to explore the associations among ozone, PM(2.5), daily meteorological variables (wind speed, temperature, relative humidity, absolute humidity, cloud percentages, and precipitation levels), and COVID-19 confirmed new cases and new deaths in Queens county, New York during March and April 2020. The results from these analyses showed that daily average temperature, daily maximum eight-hour ozone concentration, average relative humidity, and cloud percentages were significantly and positively associated with new confirmed cases related to COVID-19; none of these variables showed significant associations with new deaths related to COVID-19. The findings indicate that short-term exposures to ozone and other meteorological factors can influence COVID-19 transmission and initiation of the disease, but disease aggravation and mortality depend on other factors.

positive: Environmental Factors Affecting the Transmission of Respiratory Viruses Many viruses are capable of infecting the human respiratory tract to cause disease. These viruses display various transmission patterns among humans; however, they all share the ability to transmit from person to person, and their human transmissibility is influenced by the environment in which pathogen and host meet. This review aims to summarize recent and significant observations regarding the impact of environmental factors such as weather and climate, humidity, temperature, and airflow on the transmission of human respiratory viruses. Where possible, knowledge gaps that require further scientific study will be identified.

positive: Meteorological impacts on the incidence of COVID-19 in the U.S. Since the World Health Organization has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic, some have been anticipating that the mitigation could happen in the summer like seasonal influenza, while medical solutions are still in a slow progress. Experimental studies have revealed a few evidences that coronavirus decayed quickly under the exposure of heat and humidity. This study aims to carry out an epidemiological investigation to establish the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 in high risk areas of the United States (U.S.). We analyzed daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and seven meteorological measures in top 50 U.S. counties with the most accumulative confirmed cases from March 22, 2020 to April 22, 2020. Our analyses indicate that each meteorological factor and COVID-19 more likely have a nonlinear association rather than a linear association over the wide ranges of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation observed. Average temperature, minimum relative humidity, and precipitation were better predictors to address the meteorological impact on COVID-19. By including all the three meteorological factors in the same model with their lagged effects up to 3 days, the overall impact of the average temperature on COVID-19 was found to peak at 68.45 °F and decrease at higher degrees, though the overall relative risk percentage (RR %) reduction did not become significantly negative up to 85 °F. There was a generally downward trend of RR % with the increase of minimum relative humidity; nonetheless, the trend reversed when the minimum relative humidity exceeded 91.42%. The overall RR % of COVID-19 climbed to the highest level of 232.07% (95% confidence interval = 199.77, 267.85) with 1.60 inches of precipitation, and then started to decrease. When precipitation exceeded 1.85 inches, its impact on COVID-19 became significantly negative. Our findings alert people to better have self-protection during the pandemic rather than expecting that the natural environment can curb coronavirus for human beings.

positive: An Innovative Big Data Predictive Analytics Framework over Hybrid Big Data Sources with an Application for Disease Analytics Nowadays, big data are everywhere. Examples of big data include weather data, web-search data, disease reports, as well as epidemic data and statistics. These big data can be easily generated and collected from a wide variety of data sources. A data science framework—such as predictive analytics framework—helps mining data from various big data sources to find useful information and discover knowledge, which can then be transformed into wisdom for appropriate actions. In this paper, we present an innovative big data predictive analytics framework over hybrid big data sources. To demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our framework, we conduct several case studies, including one on applying the framework to disease analytics. More specifically, we integrate, incorporate and analyze weather data and web-search data to predict and forecast dengue cases based on a hybrid of three kernels in support vector machine (SVM) ensemble. Results show how our predictive analytics framework benefits health agencies in disease control and prevention.

positive: Arctic Oscillation: possible trigger of COVID-19 outbreak The current COVID-19 pandemic is having detrimental consequences worldwide. The pandemic started to develop strongly by the end of January and beginning of February 2020, first in China with subsequent rapid spread to other countries with new epicenters of the outbreaks concentrated mainly within the 30-50 degrees North latitudinal band (e.g., South Korea, Japan, Iran, Italy, Spain). Simultaneously, an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing at latitudes around 40 degrees North was observed on global scale, in line with an anomalously strong positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. This atypical situation could have resulted in favorable meteorological conditions for a quicker spread of the virus over the latitude band detailed above. This possible connection needs further attention in order to understand the meteorological and climatological factors related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and for anticipating the spatio-temporal distribution of possible future pandemics.

positive: Study of the Dependence of Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 on the Temperature and Humidity: A Case Study with the Indian States Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan province of China in November 2019 and within a short time, it was declared as a worldwide pandemic by World Health Organisation due to very fast worldwide spread of the virus. In the absence of any vaccine, various mitigation measures were used. In the past, the effect of temperature and humidity on the spread of the virus was studied for a very early phase of the data with mixed results. We are studying the impact of COVID-19 on the maximum temperature and relative humidity of a place using Indian states as test cases for SIR, SIRD, and SEIR models. We used a linear regression method to look for any dependency between effective reproduction number with maximum temperature and relative humidity. Most of the states show a correlation with the negative slope between the effective reproduction number with the maximum temperature and the relative humidity. It indicates that the effective reproduction number goes down as maximum temperature or relative humidity rise. But, the regression coefficient R2 is low for these correlations which means that the correlation is not strong.

positive: Predictors of COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and epidemic growth rate at the country level Background. The burden of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been geographically disproportionate. Certain weather factors and population characteristics are thought to drive transmission, but studies examining these factors are limited. We aimed to identify weather, sociodemographic, and geographic drivers of COVID-19 at the global scale using a comprehensive collection of country/territory-level data, and to use discovered associations to estimate the timing of community transmission. Methods. We examined COVID-19 cases and deaths reported up to May 2, 2020 across 205 countries and territories in relation to weather data collected from capital cities for the eight weeks prior to and four weeks after the date of the first reported case, as well as country/territory-level population, geographic, and planetary data. We performed univariable and multivariable regression modeling and odds ratio analyses to investigate associations with COVID-19 cases, deaths, and epidemic growth rate. We also conducted maximum likelihood analysis to estimate the timing of initial community spread. Findings. Lower temperature (p<0.0001), lower humidity (p=0.006), higher altitude (p=0.0080), higher percentage of urban population (p<0.0001), increased air travelers (p=0.00019), and higher prevalence of obesity (p<0.0001) were strong independent predictors of national COVID-19 incidence, mortality, and epidemic growth rate. Temperature at 5-7 weeks before the first reported case best predicted epidemic growth, suggesting that significant community transmission was occurring on average 1-2 months prior to detection. Interpretation. The results of this ecologic analysis demonstrate that global COVID-19 burden and timing of country-level epidemic growth can be predicted by weather and population factors. In particular, we find that cool, dry, and higher altitude environments, as well as more urban and obese populations, may be conducive to more rapid epidemic spread. Funding sources: None.

positive: Climatic-niche evolution of SARS CoV-2 Adaptation of species to new environments is governed by natural selection that discriminates among genetic variations and favors survival of the fittest. Here, we propose climate plays an important role in the evolution of SARS CoV-2 and the spread of COVID-19 all over the world which was previously not known. To understand the climatic factors responsible for shaping the molecular determinants of the novel coronavirus, genotyping SARS CoV-2 across different latitudes and Koppen’s climate is imperative. It seems this virus follows inverse latitudinal biodiversity gradient due to its preference towards Koppen’s temperate (C) and cold climate (D). Our molecular phylogenetic analysis revealed division of 176 SARS CoV-2 strains into two variant groups, G1 and G2, well defined by four mutations. Initially, SARS CoV-2 was restricted to a “humid-subtropical” (Cfa) climate of southeast China, which soon spread all over the world having C climate. Genomic information superimposed on global Koppen’s climate map elucidates that the gradation “humid-subtropical” (Cfa) and “marine-temperate” (Cfb) to “humid-continental” (Dfa-Dfb) climate drives the evolution of G1 into G2 variant group. It seems an early infection in Europe and USA is due to the dominance of C climate. Russia and North America were infected through linkage of C to D climate and South America from C to A climate. Our study elucidates viruses are sensitive to climate and combined genomic and climatic studies provide crucial information about the pathogenesis and natural spreading pathways during a pandemic which will enable us to take pre-emptive precautionary measures in such outbreaks. Graphical Abstract In Brief The authors elucidate adaptation of SARS CoV-2 to different climates by studying phylogenetics and the distribution of strains on Koppen’s climate map. Highlights SARS CoV-2 follows inverse latitudinal gradient. Phylogenetic network divides SARS CoV-2 strains into two variant groups, G1 and G2. G1 strains is restricted to Koppen’s “temperate” climate (mainly Cfa-Cfb). G2 strains has evolved from G1 to sustain in “humid-continental” (Dfa-Dfb) and “tropical-savannah” (Aw) climate.

positive: Change of influenza pandemics because of climate change: Complex network simulations Introduction Airborne influenza virus transmission is depending on climate. Infected individuals are able to travel to any country in the world within one day. In this study we combine these two insights to investigate the influence of climate change on pandemic spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases, like influenza. Well-known recent examples for pandemics are severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS, 2002/2003) and H1N1 (Influenza A virus subtype, 2009), which have demonstrated the vulnerability of a strongly connected world. Methods Our study is based on a complex network approach including the following datasets: –global air traffic data (from openflights.org) with information on airports, direct flight connections, and airplane types; –global population grid [from Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), NASA]; –WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) climate reanalysis data (1980–2015) and RCP6.0 climate projection data (2016–2040): temperature, specific humidity, surface air pressure, water vapour pressure. We use the dependency between water vapour pressure and influenza transmission rate to give every location around the globe a unique transmission rate time series from 1980 until 2040. Local disease development is simulated with a stochastic SEIR compartmental model. All individuals (including infectious ones) are able to migrate from location to location via air traffic to simulate global dissemination of the virus. Results Our results show which regions are most vulnerable to climate change in terms of influenza pandemics towards key target locations (defined by highest degree, highest population, highest betweenness centrality). Furthermore, we point out the influence of climate change on pandemics from 1980 until 2040. A significant trend in the pandemic rate of spreading can be seen on a global scale. Climate change causes an influenza pandemic to proceed 5 days slower (global average) in the year 2040 compared to the year 1980. This trend varies from country to country. For example, pandemics originating from Chad show an accelerated (6 days faster) spread. Conclusion The presented results focus on the effect that climate change has on spreading patterns of airborne infectious diseases. The change from 1980 until 2040 of important influencing variables like population distribution, varying air traffic, vaccine research, hygiene, and healthcare are neglected to separate the impact of climate change.

positive: Prioritizing and Analyzing the Role of Climate and Urban Parameters in the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 Based on Artificial Intelligence Applications Nowadays, an infectious disease outbreak is considered one of the most destructive effects in the sustainable development process. The outbreak of new coronavirus (COVID-19) as an infectious disease showed that it has undesirable social, environmental, and economic impacts, and leads to serious challenges and threats. Additionally, investigating the prioritization parameters is of vital importance to reducing the negative impacts of this global crisis. Hence, the main aim of this study is to prioritize and analyze the role of certain environmental parameters. For this purpose, four cities in Italy were selected as a case study and some notable climate parameters-such as daily average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed-and an urban parameter, population density, were considered as input data set, with confirmed cases of COVID-19 being the output dataset. In this paper, two artificial intelligence techniques, including an artificial neural network (ANN) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm and differential evolution (DE) algorithm, were used for prioritizing climate and urban parameters. The analysis is based on the feature selection process and then the obtained results from the proposed models compared to select the best one. Finally, the difference in cost function was about 0.0001 between the performances of the two models, hence, the two methods were not different in cost function, however, ANN-PSO was found to be better, because it reached to the desired precision level in lesser iterations than ANN-DE. In addition, the priority of two variables, urban parameter, and relative humidity, were the highest to predict the confirmed cases of COVID-19.

positive: A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, -0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastern China decreased below 0 °C (the STR ranged from 3.5 to 12.3 when the temperature was between -9.41 °C and -13.87 °C), whilst the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR was 1.21 ± 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 °C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly whereas a lower temperature (<0 °C) was exponentially associated with an increased transmission rate of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the mitigation of COVID-19 spread in densely populated and/or cold regions will be a great challenge.

positive: Effects of meteorological conditions and air pollution on COVID-19 transmission: Evidence from 219 Chinese cities. The spatial distribution of the COVID-19 infection in China cannot be explained solely by geographical distance and regulatory stringency. In this research we investigate how meteorological conditions and air pollution, as concurring factors, impact COVID-19 transmission, using data on new confirmed cases from 219 prefecture cities from January 24 to February 29, 2020. Results revealed a kind of nonlinear dose-response relationship between temperature and coronavirus transmission. We also found that air pollution indicators are positively correlated with new confirmed cases, and the coronavirus further spreads by 5-7% as the AQI increases by 10 units. Further analysis based on regional divisions revealed that in northern China the negative effects of rising temperature on COVID-19 is counteracted by aggravated air pollution. In the southern cities, the ambient temperature and air pollution have a negative interactive effect on COVID-19 transmission, implying that rising temperature restrains the facilitating effects of air pollution and that they jointly lead to a decrease in new confirmed cases. These results provide implications for the control and prevention of this disease and for the anticipation of another possible pandemic.

positive: The dynamics of Covid-19: weather, demographics and infection timeline We study the effects of three types of variables on the early pace of spread of Covid-19: weather variables, temperature and absolute humidity; population density; the timeline of Covid-19 infection, as outbreak of disease occurs in different dates for different regions. The regions considered were all 50 U.S. states and 110 countries (those which had enough data available by April 10th. We looked for associations between the above variables and an estimate of the growth rate of cases, the exponential coefficient, computed using data for 10 days starting when state/country reached 100 confirmed cases. The results for U.S. states indicate that one cannot expect that higher temperatures and higher levels of absolute humidity would translate into slower pace of Covid-19 infection rate, at least in the ranges of those variables during the months of February and March of 2020 (-2.4 to 24C and 2.3 to 15g/m3). In fact, the opposite is true: the higher the temperature and the absolute humidity, the faster the Covid-19 has expanded in the U.S. states, in the early stages of the outbreak. Secondly, using the highest county population density for each state, there is strong positive association between population density and (early) faster spread of Covid-19. Finally, there is strong negative association between the date when a state reached 100 accumulated cases and the speed of Covid-10 outbreak (the later, the lower the estimate of growth rate). When these variables are considered together, only population density and the timeline variable show statistical significance. We also develop the basic models for the collection of countries, without the demographic variable. Despite the evidence, in that case, that warmer and more humid countries have shown lower rates of Covid-19 expansion, the weather variables lose statistical significance when the timeline variable is added.

positive: UV light influences covid-19 activity through big data: trade offs between northern subtropical, tropical, and southern subtropical countries UV (ultraviolet) light is an important factor should be considered to predict coronavirus epidemic growth pace. UV is different from weather temperature since UV is electromagnetic wavelength from 10 nm to 400 nm in size, shorter than of visible lights. For some people, UV light can lead to cancer from unprotected sun exposure, however, for tropical people, which have been used to live in such condition, have resisted from negative effect high UV index. Moreover, UV has the capability to inactivate virus. This conclusion has been discussed deeply with biological experts. Although UV light has the ability to inactivate viruses, it may be meaningless in areas with high air pollution where UV light turns into heat.

positive: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2): An Update Coronaviruses (CoVs) belong to the family of Coronaviridae, the order Nidovirales, and the genus Coronavirus. They are the largest group of viruses causing respiratory and gastrointestinal infections. Morphologically, CoVs are enveloped viruses containing a non-segmented positive-sense, single-stranded ribonucleic acid (RNA) viruses. CoVs are categorized into four important genera that include Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Gammacoronavirus, and Deltacoronavirus. A novel member of human CoV that has recently emerged in Wuhan, China, is now formally named as SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). This is a unique strain of RNA viruses that have not been previously observed in humans. The virus has wide host adaptability and is capable of causing severe diseases in humans, masked palm civets, mice, dogs, cats, camels, pigs, chickens, and bats. The SARS-CoV-2 typically causes respiratory and gastrointestinal sickness in both humans and animals. It can be transmitted through aerosols and direct/indirect contact, as well as during medical cases and laboratory sample handling. Specific structural proteins, which might be found on the surface of the virus, play an important role in the pathogenesis and development of the complications. The disease is characterized by distinct medical signs and symptoms that include high fever, chills, cough, and shortness of breath or difficulty in breathing. The infected people may also present with other symptoms such as diarrhea, myalgia, fatigue, expectoration, and hemoptysis. It is important from the public health and economic point of view as it affects the growth of the country, which is majorly attributed to the restriction in the movement of the people and the cost associated with the control and prevention of the disease. Since there is no specific therapeutic intervention nor a vaccine available against the virus, supportive management and treatment with non-specific therapeutic agents (repurposed drugs) may provide relief to the patients. Some preventive strategies of the disease include blocking the routes of transmission of the infections, disinfection of instruments used during medical case handling, using personal protective equipment, proper and early diagnosis of the disease, avoiding contact with the sick patients, and quarantine of the infected/exposed people.

positive: Estimating weekly excess mortality at subnational level in Italy during the COVID-19 pandemic Background Excess mortality from all-cause has been estimated at national level for different countries, to provide a picture of the total burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, there have been no attempts at modelling it at high spatial resolution, needed to understand geographical differences in the mortality patterns, to evaluate temporal lags and to plan for future waves of the pandemic. Methods This is the first subnational study on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy, the third most-hit country. We considered municipality level and estimated all-cause mortality weekly trends based on the first four months of 2016 -- 2019. We specified a Bayesian hierarchical model allowing for spatial heterogeneity as well as for non-linear smooth spatio-temporal terms. We predicted the weekly mortality rates at municipality level for 2020 based on the modelled spatio-temporal trends (i.e.~in the absence of the pandemic) and estimated the excess mortality and the uncertainty surrounding it. Results We found strong evidence of excess mortality for Northern Italy, with higher mortality rates than expected from the end of February in Lombardia, with total excess deaths of 23,946 (23,013 -- 24,786), and the beginning of March for North East and North West with total excess deaths of 8,033 (7,061 -- 9,044) and 1,588 (404 -- 2,700) respectively. We found marked geographical differences, with percent excess of up to 88.9% (81.9% -- 95.2%) at the peak of the pandemic, in the city of Bergamo (Lombardia).

positive: Assessing the relationship between ground levels of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) with coronavirus (COVID-19) in Milan, Italy Abstract This paper investigates the correlation between the high level of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 infection accelerated transmission and lethality, and surface air pollution in Milan metropolitan area, Lombardy region in Italy. For January–April 2020 period, time series of daily average inhalable gaseous pollutants ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), together climate variables (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, precipitation rate, atmospheric pressure field and Planetary Boundary Layer) were analyzed. In spite of being considered primarily transmitted by indoor bioaerosols droplets and infected surfaces or direct human-to-human personal contacts, it seems that high levels of urban air pollution, and climate conditions have a significant impact on SARS-CoV-2 diffusion. Exhibited positive correlations of ambient ozone levels and negative correlations of NO2 with the increased rates of COVID-19 infections (Total number, Daily New positive and Total Deaths cases), can be attributed to airborne bioaerosols distribution. The results show positive correlation of daily averaged O3 with air temperature and inversely correlations with relative humidity and precipitation rates. Viral genome contains distinctive features, including a unique N-terminal fragment within the spike protein, which allows coronavirus attachment on ambient air pollutants. At this moment it is not clear if through airborne diffusion, in the presence of outdoor and indoor aerosols, this protein “spike” of the new COVID-19 is involved in the infectious agent transmission from a reservoir to a susceptible host during the highest nosocomial outbreak in some agglomerated industrialized urban areas like Milan is. Also, in spite of collected data for cold season (winter-early spring) period, when usually ozone levels have lower values than in summer, the findings of this study support possibility as O3 can acts as a COVID-19 virus incubator. Being a novel pandemic coronavirus version, it might be ongoing during summer conditions associated with higher air temperatures, low relative humidity and precipitation levels.

positive: Asymmetric nexus between temperature and COVID-19 in the top ten affected provinces of China: A current application of quantile-on-quantile approach Abstract The present study examines the asymmetrical effect of temperature on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease) from 22 January 2020 to 31 March 2020 in the 10 most affected provinces in China. This study used the Sim & Zhou' quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to analyze how the temperature quantities affect the different quantiles of COVID-19. Daily COVID-19 and, temperature data collected from the official websites of the Chinese National Health Commission and Weather Underground Company (WUC) respectively. Empirical results have shown that the relationship between temperature and COVID-19 is mostly positive for Hubei, Hunan, and Anhui, while mostly negative for Zhejiang and Shandong provinces. The remaining five provinces Guangdong, Henan, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, and Heilongjiang are showing the mixed trends. These differences among the provinces can be explained by the differences in the number of COVID-19 cases, temperature, and the province's overall hospital facilitations. The study concludes that maintaining a safe and comfortable atmosphere for patients while COVID-19 is being treated may be rational.

positive: Sub-continental Atmosphere and Inherent Immune System may have Impact on Novel Corona Virus' 2019 (nCovid-19) Prevalence in South East Asia Pandemic enveloped RNA Novel Corona Virus' 2019 (SARS-CoV-2) appears as a beating reed which induce overwhelming outbreak all over the world since November 2019 to till date. Inherent Immunity developed by traditional food habit, exposure to various antigens and vitamin D induced sunlight exposure. Meteorological parameters are the important factors which influencing the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) like infectious disease. Aim of this review to enhance our knowledge and explore the association among build up immunity, weather parameters and Corona virus disease (COVID-19) death. In this review we emphasize role of meteorological factor included degree of sun exposure and effect of temperature on enveloped lipid bi-layer structure of Novel corona virus. These meteorological factors and inherent immunity may have impact on SARS-CoV-2 incidence among South East Asian including Bangladeshi. In summary, this study suggests that temperature-humidity variation, inherent immunity and lower life expectancy of South East Asia may be important.

positive: Spatial modeling cannot currently differentiate SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus and human distributions on the basis of climate in the United States The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is wreaking havoc globally, yet knowledge of its biology is limited. Climate and seasonality influence the distributions of many diseases, and studies suggest a link between SARS-CoV-2 and cool weather. One such study, building species distribution models (SDMs), predicted SARS-CoV-2 risk may remain concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, shifting northward in summer months. Others have highlighted issues with SARS-CoV-2 SDMs, notably: the primary niche of the virus is the host it infects, climate may be a weak distributional predictor, global prevalence data have issues, and the virus is not in a population equilibrium. While these issues should be considered, climate still may be important for predicting the future distribution of SARS-CoV-2. To further examine if there is a link, we model with raw cases and population scaled cases for SARS-CoV-2 county-level data from the United States. We show that SDMs built from population scaled cases data cannot be distinguished from control models built from raw human population data, while SDMs built on raw data fail to predict the current known distribution of cases in the US. The population scaled analyses indicate that climate may not play a central role in current US viral distribution and that human population density is likely a primary driver. Still, we do find slightly more population scaled viral cases in cooler areas. This coupled with our geographically constrained focus make it so we cannot rule out climate as a partial driver of the US SARS-CoV-2 distribution. Climate's role on SARS-CoV-2 should continue to be cautiously examined, but at this time we should assume that SARS-CoV-2 can spread anywhere in the US.

positive: Similar virus spectra and seasonality in paediatric patients with acute respiratory disease, Ghana and Germany Abstract Epidemiological differences between tropical and temperate regions regarding viruses causing acute respiratory infection are poorly understood. This is in part because methodological differences limit the comparability of data from these two regions. Using identical molecular detection methods, we tested 1174 Ghanaian and 539 German children with acute respiratory infections sampled over 12 months for the 15 most common respiratory viruses by PCR. A total 43.2% of the Ghanaian and 56.6% of the German children tested positive for at least one respiratory virus. The pneumoviruses respiratory syncytial virus and human metapneumovirus were most frequently detected, in 13.1% and 25.1% within the Ghanaian and German children, respectively. At both study sites, pneumoviruses were more often observed at younger ages (p <0.001). In the Ghanaian rainy season, enveloped viruses were detected twice as often as non-enveloped viruses (prevalence rate ratio (PR) 2.0, 95% CI 1.7–2.4). In contrast, non-enveloped viruses were more frequent during the Ghanaian dry season (PR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4–0.8). In Germany, enveloped viruses were also more frequently detected during the relatively colder winter season (PR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2–2.1) and non-enveloped viruses during summer (PR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5–0.9). Despite a distance of about 5000 km and a difference of 44° latitude separating Germany and Ghana, virus spectra, age associations and seasonal fluctuation showed similarities between sites. Neither respiratory viruses overall, nor environmentally stable (non-enveloped) viruses in particular were more frequent in tropical Ghana. The standardization of our sampling and laboratory testing revealed similarities in acute respiratory infection virus patterns in tropical and temperate climates.

positive: The impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak - evidence from China OBJECTIVE To investigate the impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. DESIGN Ecological study. SETTING 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Data on COVID-19 incidence and climate between Jan 20 and Feb 29, 2020. RESULTS The number of new confirm COVID-19 cases in mainland China peaked on Feb 1, 2020. COVID-19 daily incidence were lowest at -10 and highest at 10 ,while the maximum incidence was observed at the absolute humidity of approximately 7 g/m3. COVID-19 incidence changed with temperature as daily incidence decreased when the temperature rose. No significant association between COVID-19 incidence and absolute humidity was observed in distributed lag nonlinear models. Additionally, A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model confirmed that transmission rate decreased with the increase of temperature, leading to further decrease of infection rate and outbreak scale. CONCLUSION Temperature is an environmental driver of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Lower and higher temperatures might be positive to decrease the COVID-19 incidence. M-SEIR models help to better evaluate environmental and social impacts on COVID-19.

positive: Association of COVID-19 pandemic with meteorological parameters over Singapore Meteorological parameters are the critical factors affecting the transmission of infectious diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), and influenza. Consequently, infectious disease incidence rates are likely to be influenced by the weather change. This study investigates the role of Singapore's hot tropical weather in COVID-19 transmission by exploring the association between meteorological parameters and the COVID-19 pandemic cases in Singapore. This study uses the secondary data of COVID-19 daily cases from the webpage of Ministry of Health (MOH), Singapore. Spearman and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to investigate the correlation between COVID-19 and meteorological parameters. Temperature, dew point, relative humidity, absolute humidity, and water vapor showed positive significant correlation with COVID-19 pandemic. These results will help the epidemiologists to understand the behavior of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus against meteorological variables. This study finding would be also a useful supplement to help the local healthcare policymakers, Center for Disease Control (CDC), and the World Health Organization (WHO) in the process of strategy making to combat COVID-19 in Singapore.

positive: A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China The first cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were identified in November 2002, in Guangdong Province, China. The epidemic spread rapidly within China and internationally, with 8454 recorded infections and 792 deaths by June 15, 2003. Temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity were the three key meteorological determinants affecting the transmission of SARS. The peak spread of SARS occurred at a mean temperature of 16.9°C (95% CI, 10.7°C to 23.1°C), with a mean relative humidity of 52.2% (95% CI, 33.0% to 71.4%) and wind speed of 2.8 ms(−1) (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6 ms(−1)). In northern China, these conditions are most likely to occur in the spring and suggest that SARS has a seasonal nature akin to viruses such as influenza and the common cold. A regression equation [Formula: see text] was derived to represent the optimal climatic conditions for the 2003 SARS epidemic. Further investigations in other regions are necessary to verify these results.

positive: Effect of weather on COVID-19 spread in the US: A prediction model for India in 2020 The effect of weather on COVID-19 spread is poorly understood. Recently, few studies have claimed that warm weather can possibly slowdown the global pandemic, which has already affected over 1.6 million people worldwide. Clarification of such relationships in the worst affected country, the US, can be immensely beneficial to understand the role of weather in transmission of the disease in the highly populated countries, such as India. We collected the daily data of new cases in 50 US states between Jan 1-Apr 9, 2020 and also the corresponding weather information (i.e., temperature (T) and absolute humidity (AH)). Distribution modeling of new cases across AH and T, helped identify the narrow and vulnerable AH range. We validated the results for 10-day intervals against monthly observations, and also worldwide trends. The results were used to predict Indian regions which would be vulnerable to weather based spread in upcoming months of 2020. COVID-19 spread in the US is significant for states with 4 < AH < 6 g/m3 and number of new cases > 10,000, irrespective of the chosen time intervals for study parameters. These trends are consistent with worldwide observations, but do not correlate well with India so far possibly due the total cases reported per interval < 10,000. The results clarify the relationship between weather parameters and COVID-19 spread. The vulnerable weather parameters will help classify the risky geographic areas in different countries. Specifically, with further reporting of new cases in India, prediction of states with high risk of weather based spread will be apparent.

positive: Effects of temperature and humidity on the daily new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 in 166 countries Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time and the greatest challenge facing the world. Meteorological parameters are reportedly crucial factors affecting respiratory infectious disease epidemics; however, the effect of meteorological parameters on COVID-19 remains controversial. This study investigated the effects of temperature and relative humidity on daily new cases and daily new deaths of COVID-19, which has useful implications for policymakers and the public. Daily data on meteorological conditions, new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 were collected for 166 countries (excluding China) as of March 27, 2020. Log-linear generalized additive model was used to analyze the effects of temperature and relative humidity on daily new cases and daily new deaths of COVID-19, with potential confounders controlled for, including wind speed, median age of the national population, Global Health Security Index, Human Development Index and population density. Our findings revealed that temperature and relative humidity were both negatively related to daily new cases and deaths. A 1 °C increase in temperature was associated with a 3.08% (95% CI: 1.53%, 4.63%) reduction in daily new cases and a 1.19% (95% CI: 0.44%, 1.95%) reduction in daily new deaths, whereas a 1% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 0.85% (95% CI: 0.51%, 1.19%) reduction in daily new cases and a 0.51% (95% CI: 0.34%, 0.67%) reduction in daily new deaths. The results remained robust when different lag structures and the sensitivity analysis were used. These findings provide preliminary evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic may be partially suppressed with temperature and humidity increases. However, active measures must be taken to control the source of infection, block transmission and prevent further spread of COVID-19.

positive: Any contribution of the season change to the spread of covid-19 caused by sars-cov-2? Background: Most people raise a similar concern during this tough time of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection regarding when this outbreak will come to end. A recent thorough-general study on the success of China dealing with COVID-19 outbreak has concluded to recommend the need for a multi-sectoral approach to prevent future outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases including for the still-occurring COVID-19 outbreak with the initiative for the highest interest of the health of mankind Discussion: The prevalence of SARS-CoV as the predecessor of SARS-CoV-2 has been concluded to be more suitable in spring than autumn and winter, with nothing prevalence in summer. No coincidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection has outbreak around the world from January 2020 to the present, April 2020, as ever predicted to reoccur based on its predecessor, SARS-CoV, that have prevalence been high since January, February, March, April, until early May 2003. As opposed to other seasons, summer has low atmospheric pressure as its exemption that provenly causes virus inactivation. Conclusions: The denotative nature of SARS-CoV-2 seems to reflect its predecessor, SARS-CoV, which begins nearing the end of the year and reaches its optimum hence in spring, thereafter, finally ends in summer. Low atmospheric pressure in the summer impresses that it is the potential cause of ending the outbreak by deactivating SARS-CoV-2, apart from the hot temperature of weather. The knowledge to be gained here is further closely correlated to the fact that coronavirus is able to have genetic recombination that may bring about new genotypes and, consequently, outbreaks later occurring.

positive: Nexus between COVID-19, temperature and exchange rate in Wuhan City: New findings from Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence Abstract This study attempts to document the nexus between weather, covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan and the Chinese economy. We employ 24-h daily average temperature, daily new confirmed cases of a covid-19 in Wuhan, and RMB exchange rate to represent the weather, covid-19 outbreak, and Chinese economy, respectively. The methodology of Wavelet Transform Coherence (WTC), Partial Wavelet Coherence (PWC), and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC) is used to analyze the daily data collected from 21st January 2020 to 31st March 2020. Results reveal significant coherence between series at different time-frequency combinations. Overall results show the insignificance of an increase in temperature to contain new covid-19 infections. The Renminbi exchange rate showed a negative coherence at specific time-frequency spots suggesting a negative but limited impact of the covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan on the Chinese export economy. Our results are contrary to many earlier studies, which show a significant impact of increased temperature in slowing down covid-19 spread. These results can have important implications for economic and containment policy making regarding the covid-19 outbreak.

positive: A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment: the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and age. We find that the epidemic risk is higher in some of the Northern regions with respect to Central and Southern Italy. The corresponding risk index shows correlations with the available official data on the number of infected individuals, patients in intensive care and deceased patients, and can help explaining why regions such as Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Veneto have suffered much more than the rest of the country. Although the COVID-19 outbreak started in both North (Lombardia and Veneto) and Central Italy (Lazio) almost at the same time, when the first cases were officially certified at the beginning of 2020, the disease has spread faster and with heavier consequences in regions with higher epidemic risk. Our framework can be extended and tested on other epidemic data, such as those on seasonal flu, and applied to other countries. We also present a policy model connected with our methodology, which helps policy-makers to take informed decisions.

positive: Temperature significant change COVID-19 Transmission in 429 cities Background There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID-19 transmission. Methods We collected the cumulative number of confirmed cases of all cities and regions affected by COVID-19 in the world from January 20 to February 4, 2020, and calculated the daily means of the average, minimum and maximum temperatures in January. Then, restricted cubic spline function and generalized linear mixture model were used to analyze the relationships. Results There were in total 24,232 confirmed cases in China and 26 overseas countries. In total, 16,480 cases (68.01%) were from Hubei Province. The lgN rose as the average temperature went up to a peak of 8.72℃ and then slowly declined. The apexes of the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature were 6.70℃ and 12.42℃ respectively. The curves shared similar shapes. Under the circumstance of lower temperature, every 1℃ increase in average, minimum and maximum temperatures led to an increase of the cumulative number of cases by 0.83, 0.82 and 0.83 respectively. In the single-factor model of the higher-temperature group, every 1℃ increase in the minimum temperature led to a decrease of the cumulative number of cases by 0.86. Conclusion The study found that, to certain extent, temperature could significant change COVID-19 transmission, and there might be a best temperature for the viral transmission, which may partly explain why it first broke out in Wuhan. It is suggested that countries and regions with a lower temperature in the world adopt the strictest control measures to prevent future reversal.

positive: The association between temperature, rainfall and humidity with common climate-sensitive infectious diseases in Bangladesh Bangladesh is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries for climate change. This observational study examined the association of temperature, humidity and rainfall with six common climate-sensitive infectious diseases in adults (malaria, diarrheal disease, enteric fever, encephalitis, pneumonia and bacterial meningitis) in northeastern Bangladesh. Subjects admitted to the adult medicine ward of a tertiary referral hospital in Sylhet, Bangladesh from 2008 to 2012 with a diagnosis of one of the six chosen climate-sensitive infectious diseases were enrolled in the study. Climate-related data were collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Institute. Disease incidence was then analyzed against mean temperature, humidity and average rainfall for the Sylhet region. Statistical significance was determined using Mann-Whitney test, Chi-square test and ANOVA testing. 5033 patients were enrolled (58% male, 42% female, ratio 1.3:1). All six diseases showed highly significant (p = 0.01) rises in incidence between the study years 2008 (540 cases) and 2012 (1330 cases), compared with no significant rise in overall all-cause hospital admissions in the same period (p = 0.19). The highest number of malaria (135), diarrhea (266) and pneumonia (371) cases occurred during the rainy season. On the other hand, the maximum number of enteric fever (408), encephalitis (183) and meningitis (151) cases occurred during autumn, which follows the rainy season. A positive (P = 0.01) correlation was observed between increased temperature and the incidence of malaria, enteric fever and diarrhea, and a negative correlation with encephalitis, meningitis and pneumonia. Higher humidity correlated (P = 0.01) with a higher number of cases of malaria and diarrhea, but inversely correlated with meningitis and encephalitis. Higher incidences of encephalitis and meningitis occurred while there was low rainfall. Incidences of diarrhea, malaria and enteric fever, increased with rainfall, and then gradually decreased. The findings support a relationship between weather patterns and disease incidence, and provide essential baseline data for future large prospective studies.

positive: Short-term effects of specific humidity and temperature on COVID-19 morbidity in select US cities Little is known about the environmental conditions that drive the spatiotemporal patterns of SARS-CoV-2. Preliminary research suggests an association with meteorological parameters. However, the relationship with temperature and humidity is not yet apparent for COVID-19 cases in US cities first impacted. The objective of this study is to evaluate the association between COVID-19 cases and meteorological parameters in select US cities. A case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to evaluate the contribution of ambient temperature and specific humidity on COVID-19 cases in select US cities. The case-crossover examines each COVID case as its own control at different time periods (before and after transmission occurred). We modeled the effect of temperature and humidity on COVID-19 transmission using a lag period of 7 days. A subset of 8 cities were evaluated for the relationship with meteorological parameters and 5 cities were evaluated in detail. Short-term exposure to humidity was positively associated with COVID-19 transmission in 4 cities. The associations were small with 3 out of 4 cities exhibiting higher COVID19 transmission with specific humidity that ranged from 6 to 9 g/kg. Our results suggest that weather should be considered in infectious disease modeling efforts. Future work is needed over a longer time period and across different locations to clearly establish the weather-COVID19 relationship.

positive: Analysis on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Using Machine Learning Methods In this paper, we are working on a pandemic of novel coronavirus (COVID-19). COVID-19 is an infectious disease, it creates severe damage in the lungs. COVID-19 causes illness in humans and has killed many people in the entire world. However, this virus is reported as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) and all countries are trying to control and lockdown all places. The main objective of this work is to solve the five different tasks such as I) Predicting the spread of coronavirus across regions. II) Analyzing the growth rates and the types of mitigation across countries. III) Predicting how the epidemic will end. IV) Analyzing the transmission rate of the virus. V) Correlating the coronavirus and weather conditions. The advantage of doing these tasks to minimize the virus spread by various mitigation, how well the mitigations are working, how many cases have been prevented by this mitigations, an idea about the number of patients that will recover from the infection with old medication, understand how much time will it take to for this pandemic to end, we will be able to understand and analyze how fast or slow the virus is spreading among regions and the infected patient to reduce the spread based clear understanding of the correlation between the spread and weather conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel Support Vector Regression method to analysis five different tasks related to novel coronavirus. In this work, instead of simple regression line we use the supported vectors also to get better classification accuracy. Our approach is evaluated and compared with other well-known regression models on standard available datasets. The promising results demonstrate its superiority in both efficiency and accuracy.

positive: Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu BACKGROUND: The new coronavirus disease COVID-19 began in December 2019 and has spread rapidly by human-to-human transmission. This study evaluated the transmissibility of the infectious disease and analyzed its association with temperature and humidity to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19. METHODS: In this study, we revised the reported data in Wuhan based on several assumptions to estimate the actual number of confirmed cases considering that perhaps not all cases could be detected and reported in the complex situation there. Then we used the equation derived from the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to calculate R(0) from January 24, 2020 to February 13, 2020 in 11 major cities in China for comparison. With the calculation results, we conducted correlation analysis and regression analysis between R(0) and temperature and humidity for four major cities in China to see the association between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the weather variables. RESULTS: It was estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases had exceeded 45 000 by February 13, 2020 in Wuhan. The average R(0) in Wuhan was 2.7, significantly higher than those in other cities ranging from 1.8 to 2.4. The inflection points in the cities outside Hubei Province were between January 30, 2020 and February 3, 2020, while there had not been an obvious downward trend of R(0) in Wuhan. R(0) negatively correlated with both temperature and humidity, which was significant at the 0.01 level. CONCLUSIONS: The transmissibility of COVID-19 was strong and importance should be attached to the intervention of its transmission especially in Wuhan. According to the correlation between R(0) and weather, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms.

positive: Temperature, humidity, and wind speed are associated with lower Covid-19 incidence In absence of empirical research data, there has been considerable speculative hypothesis on the relationship between climatic factors (such as temperature and humidity) and the incidence of Covid-19. This study analyzed the data from 310 regions across 116 countries that reported confirmed cases of Covid-19 by March 12, 2020, and found that temperature, humidity, and wind speed were inversely associated with the incidence rate of Covid-19 after adjusting for the regional and temporal trend in the incidence of Covid-19, columnar density of ozone, precipitation probability, sea-level air-pressure, and length of daytime.

positive: Role of temperature and humidity in the modulation of the doubling time of COVID-19 cases COVID-19 is having a great impact on public health, mortality and economy worldwide, in spite of the efforts to prevent its epidemy. The SARS-CoV-2 genome is different from that of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, although also expected to spread differently according to meteorological conditions. Our main goal is to investigate the role of some meteorological variables on the expansion of this outbreak. In this study, an exponential model relating the number of accumulated confirmed cases and time was considered. The rate of COVID-19 spread, using as criterion the doubling time of the number of confirmed cases, was used as dependent variable in a linear model that took four independent meteorological variables: temperature, humidity, precipitation and wind speed. Only China cases were considered, to control both cultural aspects and containment policies. Confirmed cases and the 4 meteorological variables were gathered between January 23 and March 1 (39 days) for the 31 provinces of Mainland China. Several periods of time were sampled for each province, obtaining more than one value for the rate of disease progression. Two different periods of time were tested, of 12 and 15 days, along with 3 and 5 different starting points in time, randomly chosen. The median value for each meteorological variable was computed, using the same time period; models with adjusted R square above 0.75 were selected. The rate of progression and doubling time were computed and used to fit a linear regression model. Models were evaluated using alpha=0.05. Results indicate that the doubling time correlates positively with temperature and inversely with humidity, suggesting that a decrease in the rate of progression of COVID-19 with the arrival of spring and summer in the north hemisphere. A 20oC increase is expected to delay the doubling time in 1.8 days. Those variables explain 18% of the variation in disease doubling time; the remaining 82% may be related to containment measures, general health policies, population density, transportation or cultural aspects.

positive: Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19 We perform a statistical analysis for understanding the effect of the environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of the cases infected by COVID-19 for US and Italian regions. In particular, we analyze the datasets of regional infected cases, derive the growth rates for regions characterized by readable exponential growth phase in their evolution spread curve and plot them against the environmental temperatures averaged within the same regions, derive the relationship between temperature and growth rate, and evaluate its statistical confidence. The results clearly support the first reported statistically significant relationship of negative correlation between the average environmental temperature and exponential growth rates of the infected cases. The critical temperature, which eliminates the exponential growth, and thus the COVID-19 spread in US regions, is estimated to be Tc = 86.1 ± 4.3 F.

positive: Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020 Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance elsewhere. Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5-7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios. Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from -28.0 to 30.1 °C, minimum daily temperature from -42.4 to 23.0 °C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm-2 and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence. Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

positive: Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health The undefendable outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) lead to a global health emergency due to its higher transmission rate and longer symptomatic duration, created a health surge in a short time. Since Nov 2019 the outbreak in China, the virus is spreading exponentially everywhere. The current study focuses on the relationship between environmental parameters and the growth rate of COVID-19. The statistical analysis suggests that the temperature changes retarded the growth rate and found that -6.28{degrees}C and +14.51{degrees}C temperature is the favorable range for COVID-19 growth. Gutenberg- Richter's relationship is used to estimate the mean daily rate of exceedance of confirmed cases concerning the change in temperature. Temperature is the most influential parameter that reduces the growth at the rate of 13-16 cases/day with a 1{degrees}C rise in temperature.

positive: Effects of temperature variation and humidity on the death of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China Meteorological parameters are the important factors influencing the infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza. This study aims to explore the association between Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths and weather parameters. In this study, we collected the daily death numbers of COVID-19, meteorological parameters and air pollutant data from 20 January 2020 to 29 February 2020 in Wuhan, China. Generalized additive model was applied to explore the effect of temperature, humidity and diurnal temperature range on the daily death counts of COVID-19. There were 2299 COVID-19 death counts in Wuhan during the study period. A positive association with COVID-19 daily death counts was observed for diurnal temperature range (r = 0.44), but negative association for relative humidity (r = -0.32). In addition, one unit increase in diurnal temperature range was only associated with a 2.92% (95% CI: 0.61%, 5.28%) increase in COVID-19 deaths in lag 3. However, both 1 unit increase of temperature and absolute humidity were related to the decreased COVID-19 death in lag 3 and lag 5, with the greatest decrease both in lag 3 [-7.50% (95% CI: -10.99%, -3.88%) and -11.41% (95% CI: -19.68%, -2.29%)]. In summary, this study suggests the temperature variation and humidity may also be important factors affecting the COVID-19 mortality.

positive: An initial investigation of the association between the SARS outbreak and weather: with the view of the environmental temperature and its variation. OBJECTIVE To understand the association between the SARS outbreak and the environmental temperature, and to provide a scientific basis for prevention and control measures against it. METHODS The daily numbers of the probable SARS patients and the daily meteorological factors during the SARS outbreak period in Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Beijing, and Taiyuan were used in the data analysis. Ecological analysis was conducted to explore the association between the daily numbers of probable SARS patients and the environmental temperature and its variations. RESULTS There was a significant correlation between the SARS cases and the environmental temperature seven days before the onset and the seven day time lag corresponds well with the known incubation period for SARS. The optimum environmental temperature associated with the SARS cases was between 16 degrees C to 28 degrees C, which may encourage virus growth. A sharp rise or decrease in the environmental temperature related to the cold spell led to an increase of the SARS cases because of the possible influence of the weather on the human immune system. This study provided some evidence that there is a higher possibility for SARS to reoccur in spring than that in autumn and winter. CONCLUSION Current knowledge based on case studies of the SARS outbreak in the four cities suggested that the SARS outbreaks were significantly associated with the temperature and its variations. However, because the fallacy and the uncontrolled confounding effects might have biased the results, the possibility of other meteorological factors having an affect on the SARS outbreaks deserves further investigation.

positive: Effect of Temperature on the Transmission of COVID-19: A Machine Learning Case Study in Spain The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has already spread to almost every country in the world and has infected over 3 million people. To understand the transmission mechanism of this highly contagious virus, it is necessary to study the potential factors, including meteorological conditions. Here, we present a machine learning approach to study the effect of temperature, humidity and wind speed on the number of infected people in the three most populous autonomous communities in Spain. We find that there is a moderate inverse correlation between temperature and the daily number of infections. This correlation manifests for temperatures recorded up to 6 days before the onset, which corresponds well to the known mean incubation period of COVID-19. We also show that the correlation for humidity and wind speed is not significant.

positive: Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions Stability of SARS-CoV-2 in different environmental conditions.

positive: Role of meteorological temperature and relative humidity in the January-February 2020 propagation of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan, China Identified in December 2019, the 2019-nCoV emerged in Wuhan, China, and its spread increased rapidly, with cases arising across Mainland China and several other countries. By January 2020, the potential risks imposed by 2019-nCoV in human health and economical activity were promptly highlighted. Considerable efforts have been devoted for understanding the transmission mechanisms aimed to pursue public policies oriented to mitigate the number of infected and deaths. An important question requiring some attention is the role of meteorological variables (e.g., temperature and humidity) in the 2019-nCoV transmission. Correlations between meteorological temperature and relative humidity with the number of daily confirmed cases were explored in this work for the epicenter city of Wuhan, China for the period from 29 January to March 6, 2020. Long-term trend of temperature and relative humidity was obtained with a 14-days adjacent-averaging filter, and lagged correlations of the number of daily confirmed cases were explored. The analysis showed negative correlations between temperatures with the number of daily confirmed cases. Maximum correlations were found for 6-day lagged temperatures, which is likely reflecting the incubation period of the virus. It was postulated that the indoor crowding effect is responsible of the high incidence of 2019-nCoV cases, where low absolute humidity and close human contact facilitate the transport of aerosol droplets.

positive: Stability of SARS‐CoV‐2 and other coronaviruses in the environment and on common touch surfaces and the influence of climatic conditions: A review Although the unprecedented efforts the world has been taking to control the spread of the human coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) and its causative aetiology [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2)], the number of confirmed cases has been increasing drastically. Therefore, there is an urgent need for devising more efficient preventive measures, to limit the spread of the infection until an effective treatment or vaccine is available. The preventive measures depend mainly on the understanding of the transmission routes of this virus, its environmental stability, and its persistence on common touch surfaces. Due to the very limited knowledge about SARS‐CoV‐2, we can speculate its stability in the light of previous studies conducted on other human and animal coronaviruses. In this review, we present the available data on the stability of coronaviruses (CoVs), including SARS‐CoV‐2, from previous reports to help understand its environmental survival. According to available data, possible airborne transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 has been suggested. SARS‐CoV‐2 and other human and animal CoVs have remarkably short persistence on copper, latex and surfaces with low porosity as compared to other surfaces like stainless steel, plastics, glass and highly porous fabrics. It has also been reported that SARS‐CoV‐2 is associated with diarrhoea and that it is shed in the faeces of COVID‐19 patients. Some CoVs show persistence in human excrement, sewage and waters for a few days. These findings suggest a possible risk of faecal–oral, foodborne and waterborne transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 in developing countries that often use sewage‐polluted waters in irrigation and have poor water treatment systems. CoVs survive longer in the environment at lower temperatures and lower relative humidity. It has been suggested that large numbers of COVID‐19 cases are associated with cold and dry climates in temperate regions of the world and that seasonality of the virus spread is suspected.

positive: Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics and settlement, as well as the dynamic factors of climate, susceptible depletion, and intervention, on the spread of localized epidemics will be vital for mounting an effective response. We consider the entire set of local epidemics in the United States; a broad selection of demographic, population density, and climate factors; and local mobility data, tracking social distancing interventions, to determine the key factors driving the spread and containment of the virus. Assuming first a linear model for the rate of exponential growth (or decay) in cases/mortality, we find that population-weighted density, humidity, and median age dominate the dynamics of growth and decline, once interventions are accounted for. A focus on distinct metropolitan areas suggests that some locales benefited from the timing of a nearly simultaneous nationwide shutdown, and/or the regional climate conditions in mid-March; while others suffered significant outbreaks prior to intervention. Using a first-principles model of the infection spread, we then develop predictions for the impact of the relaxation of social distancing and local climate conditions. A few regions, where a significant fraction of the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e.,"herd immunity"), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible. These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard.

positive: Can the summer temperatures reduce COVID-19 cases? OBJECTIVE: Despite huge global, national, and local preventive measures including travel restriction, social distancing, and quarantines, the outbreak of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) develops the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 emerging from Wuhan, China, took only three months to cover >200 countries worldwide by infecting more than 2.4 million people and killing more than 150,000 people. Although this infection at the early stage creates seasonal flu-like symptoms with a higher illness, it eventually causes a higher mortality. Epidemiological studies not only find the causes of many health issues but also suggest preventive measures. This study aimed to see the link between environment temperature and COVID-19 cases. STUDY DESIGN: The monthly average environment temperature (MAET) and various COVID-19 cases of a country were collected and analyzed to see the relationship between these parameters. METHODS: Univariate analysis and statistical modeling were used to determine the relationship between environment temperature and different COVID-19 cases. RESULTS: This study found that the majorities of the countries having higher COVID-19 cases are located in the higher latitude (colder region) in the globe. As of 20th April data available, statistical analyses by various methods have found that strong negative correlations with statistical significance exist between MAET and several COVID-19 cases including total cases, active cases, and cases per million of a country (Spearman correlation coefficients were -0.45, -0.42, and -0.50 for total cases, active cases, and cases/per million, respectively). Analysis by the statistical log-linear regression model further supports that the chance of patients to contract COVID-19 is less in warmer countries than in colder countries. CONCLUSION: This pilot study proposes that cold environment may be an additional risk factor for COVID-19 cases.

positive: Evidence that high temperatures and intermediate relative humidity might favor the spread of COVID-19 in tropical climate: A case study for the most affected Brazilian cities Abstract This study aimed to analyze how meteorological conditions such as temperature, humidity and rainfall can affect the spread of COVID-19 in five Brazilian (São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Brasília, Manaus and Fortaleza) cities. The cities selected were those with the largest number of confirmed cases considering data of April 18. Variables such as number of cumulative cases, new daily cases and contamination rate were employed for this study. Our results showed that higher mean temperatures and average relative humidity favored the COVID-19 transmission, differently from reports from coldest countries or periods of time under cool temperatures. Thus, considering the results obtained, intersectoral policies and actions are necessary, mainly in cities where the contamination rate is increasing rapidly. Thus, prevention and protection measures should be adopted in these cities aiming to reduce transmission and the possible collapse of the health system.

positive: Trends of SARS-Cov-2 infection in 67 countries: Role of climate zone, temperature, humidity and curve behavior of cumulative frequency on duplication time Summary Objective. To analyze the role of temperature, humidity, date of first case diagnosed (DFC) and the behavior of the growth-curve of cumulative frequency (CF) [number of days to rise (DCS) and reach the first 100 cases (D100), and the difference between them (ΔDD)] with the doubling time (Td) of Covid-19 cases in 67 countries grouped by climate zone. Design. Retrospective incident case study. Setting. WHO based register of cumulative incidence of Covid-19 cases. Participants. 1,706,914 subjects diagnosed between 12-29-2019 and 4-15-2020. Exposures. SARS-Cov-2 virus, ambient humidity, temperature and climate areas (temperate, tropical/subtropical). Main outcome measures. Comparison of DCS, D100, ΔDD, DFC, humidity, temperature, Td for the first (Td10) and second (Td20) ten days of the CF growth-curve between countries according to climate zone, and identification of factors involved in Td, as well as predictors of CF using lineal regression models. Results. Td10 and Td20 were ≥3 days longer in tropical/subtropical vs. temperate areas (2.8[plusmn]1.2 vs. 5.7[plusmn]3.4; p=1.41E-05 and 4.6[plusmn]1.8 vs. 8.6[plusmn]4.2; p=9.7E-05, respectively). The factors involved in Td10 (DFC and ΔDD) were different than those in Td20 (Td10 and climate areas). After D100, the fastest growth-curves during the first 10 days, were associated with Td10<2 and Td10<3 in temperate and tropical/subtropical countries, respectively. The fold change Td20/Td10 >2 was associated with earlier flattening of the growth-curve. In multivariate models, Td10, DFC and ambient temperature were negatively related with CF and explained 44.7% (r2 = 0.447) of CF variability at day 20 of the growth-curve, while Td20 and DFC were negatively related with CF and explained 63.8% (r2 = 0.638) of CF variability towards day 30 of the growth-curve. Conclusions. The larger Td in tropical/subtropical countries is positively related to DFC and temperature. Td and environmental factors explain 64% of CF variability in the best of cases. Therefore, other factors, such as pandemic containment measures, would explain the remaining variability.

positive: The Impact of Weather on Influenza and Pneumonia Mortality in New York City, 1975–2002: A Retrospective Study The substantial winter influenza peak in temperate climates has lead to the hypothesis that cold and/or dry air is a causal factor in influenza variability. We examined the relationship between cold and/or dry air and daily influenza and pneumonia mortality in the cold season in the New York metropolitan area from 1975–2002. We conducted a retrospective study relating daily pneumonia and influenza mortality for New York City and surroundings from 1975–2002 to daily air temperature, dew point temperature (a measure of atmospheric humidity), and daily air mass type. We identified high mortality days and periods and employed temporal smoothers and lags to account for the latency period and the time between infection and death. Unpaired t-tests were used to compare high mortality events to non-events and nonparametric bootstrapped regression analysis was used to examine the characteristics of longer mortality episodes. We found a statistically significant (p = 0.003) association between periods of low dew point temperature and above normal pneumonia and influenza mortality 17 days later. The duration (r = −0.61) and severity (r = −0.56) of high mortality episodes was inversely correlated with morning dew point temperature prior to and during the episodes. Weeks in which moist polar air masses were common (air masses characterized by low dew point temperatures) were likewise followed by above normal mortality 17 days later (p = 0.019). This research supports the contention that cold, dry air may be related to influenza mortality and suggests that warning systems could provide enough lead time to be effective in mitigating the effects.

positive: Effect of ambient air pollutants and meteorological variables on COVID-19 incidence OBJECTIVE: To determine whether ambient air pollutants and meteorological variables are associated with daily COVID-19 incidence. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort from January 25 to February 29, 2020. SETTING: Cities of Wuhan, Xiaogan, and Huanggang, China. PATIENTS: The COVID-19 cases detected each day. METHODS: We collected daily data of COVID-19 incidence, 8 ambient air pollutants (particulate matter of ≤2.5 µm [PM2.5], particulate matter ≤10 µm [PM10], sulfur dioxide [SO2], carbon monoxide [CO], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], and maximum 8-h moving average concentrations for ozone [O3-8h]) and 3 meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind) in China's 3 worst COVID-19-stricken cities during the study period. The multivariate Poisson regression was performed to understand their correlation. RESULTS: Daily COVID-19 incidence was positively associated with PM2.5 and humidity in all cities. Specifically, the relative risk (RR) of PM2.5 for daily COVID-19 incidences were 1.036 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.032-1.039) in Wuhan, 1.059 (95% CI, 1.046-1.072) in Xiaogan, and 1.144 (95% CI, 1.12-1.169) in Huanggang. The RR of humidity for daily COVID-19 incidence was consistently lower than that of PM2.5, and this difference ranged from 0.027 to 0.111. Moreover, PM10 and temperature also exhibited a notable correlation with daily COVID-19 incidence, but in a negative pattern The RR of PM10 for daily COVID-19 incidence ranged from 0.915 (95% CI, 0.896-0.934) to 0.961 (95% CI, 0.95-0.972, while that of temperature ranged from 0.738 (95% CI, 0.717-0.759) to 0.969 (95% CI, 0.966-0.973). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that PM2.5 and humidity are substantially associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 and that PM10 and temperature are substantially associated with a decreased risk of COVID-19.

positive: The role of environmental factors to transmission of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) The current outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in more than 250 countries has become a serious threat to the health of people around the world. Human-to-human transmission of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) occurs most often when people are in the incubation stage of the disease or are carriers and have no symptoms. Therefore, in this study, was discussed the role of environmental factors and conditions such as temperature, humidity, wind speed as well as food, water and sewage, air, insects, inanimate surfaces, and hands in COVID-19 transmission. The results of studies on the stability of the SARS-CoV-2 on different levels showed that the resistance of this virus on smooth surfaces was higher than others. Temperature increase and sunlight can facilitate the destruction of SARS-COV-2 and the stability of it on surfaces. When the minimum ambient air temperature increases by 1 °C, the cumulative number of cases decreases by 0.86%. According to the latest evidence, the presence of coronavirus in the sewer has been confirmed, but there is no evidence that it is transmitted through sewage or contaminated drinking water. Also, SARS-COV-2 transmission through food, food packages, and food handlers has not been identified as a risk factor for the disease. According to the latest studies, the possibility of transmitting SARS-COV-2 bioaerosol through the air has been reported in the internal environment of ophthalmology. The results additionally show that infectious bio-aerosols can move up to 6 feet. There have been no reports of SARS-COV-2 transmission by blood-feeding arthropods such as mosquitoes.

positive: Environmental concern regarding the effect of humidity and temperature on 2019-nCoV survival: fact or fiction The new coronavirus, called 2019-nCoV, is a new type of virus that was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Environmental conditions necessary for survival and spread of 2019-nCoV are somewhat transparent but unlike animal coronaviruses. We are poorly aware of their survival in environment and precise factors of their transmission. Countries located in east and west of globe did not have a significant impact on prevalence of disease among communities, and on the other hand, north and south have provided a model for relative prediction of disease outbreaks. The 2019-nCoV can survive for up to 9 days at 25 °C, and if this temperature rises to 30 °C, its lifespan will be shorter. The 2019-nCoV is sensitive to humidity, and lifespan of viruses in 50% humidity is longer than that of 30%. Also, temperature and humidity are important factors influencing the COVID-19 mortality rate and may facilitate 2019-nCoV transmission. Thus, considering the available and recent evidence, it seems that low temperatures, as well as dry and unventilated air, may affect stability and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV.

positive: Impact Of Temperature and Sunshine Duration on Daily New Cases and Death due to COVID-19 Background: The coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) control has now become a critical issue for public health. Many ecological factors are proven to influence the transmission and survival of the virus. In this study, we aim to determine the association of different climate factors with the spread and mortality due to COVID-19. Methods: The climate indicators included in the study were duration of sunshine, average minimum temperature and average maximum temperature, with cumulative confirmed cases, deceased and recovered cases. The data was performed for 138 different countries of the world, between January 2020 to May 2020. Both univariate and multivariate was performed for cumulative and month-wise analysis using SPSS software. Results: The average maximum temperature, and sunshine duration was significantly associated with COVID-19 confirmed cases, deceased and recovered. For every one degree increase in mean average temperature, the confirmed, deceased and recovered cases decreased by 2047(p=0.03), 157(p=0.016), 743 (p=0.005) individuals. The association remained significant even after adjusting for environmental such as sunshine duration as well as non-environmental variables. Average sunshine duration was inversely correlated with increase in daily new cases ({rho}= -2261) and deaths ({rho}= -0.2985). Conclusion: Higher average temperature and longer sunshine duration was strongly associated with COVID-19 cases and deaths in 138 countries. Hence the temperature is an important factor in SARS CoV-2 survival and this study will help in formulating better preventive measures to combat COVID-19 based on their climatic conditions.

positive: Early transmission of COVID-19 has an optimal temperature but late transmission decreases in warm climate The COVID-19 novel virus, as an emerging highly pathogenic agent, has caused a pandemic. Revealing the influencing factors affecting transmission of COVID-19 is essential to take effective control measures. Several previous studies suggested that the spread of COVID-19 was likely associated with temperature and/or humidity. But, a recent extensive review indicated that conclusions on associations between climate and COVID-19 were elusive with high uncertainty due to caveats in most previous studies, such as limitations in time and space, data quality and confounding factors. In this study, by using a more extensive global dataset covering 578 time series from China, USA, Europe and the rest of the world, we show that climate show distinct impacts on early and late transmission of COVID-19 in the world after excluding the confounding factors. The early transmission ability of COVID-19 peaked around 6.3{degrees}C without or with little human intervention, but the later transmission ability was reduced in high temperature conditions under human intervention, probably driven by increased control efficiency of COVID-19. The transmission ability was positively associated with the founding population size of early reported cases and population size of a location. Our study suggested that with the coming summer seasons, the transmission risk of COVID-19 would increase in the high-latitude or high-altitude regions but decrease in low-latitude or low-altitude regions; human intervention is essential in containing the spread of COVID-19 around the world.

positive: A spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of temperature on COVID-19 early evolution in Spain The new SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, which causes the COVID-19 disease, was reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This new pathogen has spread rapidly around more than 200 countries, in which Spain has one of the world's highest mortality rates so far. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that weather conditions may affect the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases. However, some contradictory studies have also been reported in the same research line. In addition, many of these studies have been performed considering only meteorological factors, which can limit the reliability of the results. Herein, we report a spatio-temporal analysis for exploring the effect of daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) on the accumulated number of COVID-19 cases in the provinces of Spain. Non-meteorological factors such as population density, population by age, number of travellers and number of companies have also been considered for the analysis. No evidence suggesting a reduction in COVID-19 cases at warmer mean, minimum and maximum temperatures has been found. Nevertheless, these results need to be interpreted cautiously given the existing uncertainty about COVID-19 data, and should not be extrapolated to temperature ranges other than those analysed here for the early evolution period.

positive: Diverse local epidemics reveal the distinct effects of population density, demographics, climate, depletion of susceptibles, and intervention in the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused significant mortality and morbidity worldwide, sparing almost no community. As the disease will likely remain a threat for years to come, an understanding of the precise influences of human demographics and settlement, as well as the dynamic factors of climate, susceptible depletion, and intervention, on the spread of localized epidemics will be vital for mounting an effective response. We consider the entire set of local epidemics in the United States; a broad selection of demographic, population density, and climate factors; and local mobility data, tracking social distancing interventions, to determine the key factors driving the spread and containment of the virus. Assuming first a linear model for the rate of exponential growth (or decay) in cases/mortality, we find that population-weighted density, humidity, and median age dominate the dynamics of growth and decline, once interventions are accounted for. A focus on distinct metropolitan areas suggests that some locales benefited from the timing of a nearly simultaneous nationwide shutdown, and/or the regional climate conditions in mid-March; while others suffered significant outbreaks prior to intervention. Using a first-principles model of the infection spread, we then develop predictions for the impact of the relaxation of social distancing and local climate conditions. A few regions, where a significant fraction of the population was infected, show evidence that the epidemic has partially resolved via depletion of the susceptible population (i.e., "herd immunity"), while most regions in the United States remain overwhelmingly susceptible. These results will be important for optimal management of intervention strategies, which can be facilitated using our online dashboard.

positive: Global COVID-19 transmission rate is influenced by precipitation seasonality and the speed of climate temperature warming The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became a rapidly spreading worldwide epidemic; thus, it is a global priority to reduce the speed of the epidemic spreading. Several studies predicted that high temperature and humidity could reduce COVID-19 transmission. However, exceptions exist to this observation, further thorough examinations are thus needed for their confirmation. In this study, therefore, we used a global dataset of COVID-19 cases and global climate databases and comprehensively investigated how climate parameters could contribute to the growth rate of COVID-19 cases while statistically controlling for potential confounding effects using spatial analysis. We also confirmed that the growth rate decreased with the temperature; however, the growth rate was affected by precipitation seasonality and warming velocity rather than temperature. In particular, a lower growth rate was observed for a higher precipitation seasonality and lower warming velocity. These effects were independent of population density, human life quality, and travel restrictions. The results indicate that the temperature effect is less important compared to these intrinsic climate characteristics, which might thus be useful for explaining the exceptions. However, the contributions of the climate parameters to the growth rate were moderate; rather, the contribution of travel restrictions in each country was more significant. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they may be helpful when predicting COVID-19 transmission.

positive: Effects of air temperature and relative humidity on coronavirus survival on surfaces. Assessment of the risks posed by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) on surfaces requires data on survival of this virus on environmental surfaces and on how survival is affected by environmental variables, such as air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH). The use of surrogate viruses has the potential to overcome the challenges of working with SARS-CoV and to increase the available data on coronavirus survival on surfaces. Two potential surrogates were evaluated in this study; transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) were used to determine effects of AT and RH on the survival of coronaviruses on stainless steel. At 4 degrees C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20 degrees C than at 4 degrees C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40 degrees C than at 20 degrees C. The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%). There was also evidence of an interaction between AT and RH. The results show that when high numbers of viruses are deposited, TGEV and MHV may survive for days on surfaces at ATs and RHs typical of indoor environments. TGEV and MHV could serve as conservative surrogates for modeling exposure, the risk of transmission, and control measures for pathogenic enveloped viruses, such as SARS-CoV and influenza virus, on health care surfaces.

positive: Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) IMPORTANCE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection has resulted in a global crisis. Investigating the potential association of climate and seasonality with the spread of this infection could aid in preventive and surveillance strategies. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of climate with the spread of COVID-19 infection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study examined climate data from 50 cities worldwide with and without substantial community spread of COVID-19. Eight cities with substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, China; Tokyo, Japan; Daegu, South Korea; Qom, Iran; Milan, Italy; Paris, France; Seattle, US; and Madrid, Spain) were compared with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread. Data were collected from January to March 10, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Substantial community transmission was defined as at least 10 reported deaths in a country as of March 10, 2020. Climate data (latitude, mean 2-m temperature, mean specific humidity, and mean relative humidity) were obtained from ERA-5 reanalysis. RESULTS: The 8 cities with substantial community spread as of March 10, 2020, were located on a narrow band, roughly on the 30° N to 50° N corridor. They had consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of between 5 and 11 °C, combined with low specific humidity (3-6 g/kg) and low absolute humidity (4-7 g/m(3)). There was a lack of substantial community establishment in expected locations based on proximity. For example, while Wuhan, China (30.8° N) had 3136 deaths and 80 757 cases, Moscow, Russia (56.0° N), had 0 deaths and 10 cases and Hanoi, Vietnam (21.2° N), had 0 deaths and 31 cases. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID-19 along restricted latitude, temperature, and humidity measurements was consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus. Using weather modeling, it may be possible to estimate the regions most likely to be at a higher risk of substantial community spread of COVID-19 in the upcoming weeks, allowing for concentration of public health efforts on surveillance and containment.

positive: Association of meteorological factors with childhood viral acute respiratory infections in subtropical China: an analysis over 11 years. The objective of this study was to obtain a better understanding of the effects of meteorological factors on the prevalence and seasonality of common respiratory viruses in China, which has a subtropical climate. A retrospective study was conducted by identifying children admitted to a hospital with acute respiratory infections due to seven common viruses between January 2001 and December 2011. A total of 42,104 nasopharyngeal samples were tested for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza A and B viruses (IV-A and IV-B), parainfluenza viruses 1-3 (PIV-1, PIV-2, PIV-3), and adenovirus (ADV) by direct immunofluorescence assay. Meteorological data were obtained from Suzhou Weather Bureau. Correlations of viral prevalence with meteorological factors were evaluated using Spearman rank correlation and partial correlation. Multivariate time-series analysis including an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and generalized linear Poisson models was conducted to study the effect of meteorological factors on the prevalence of respiratory virus infection. RSV and IV-A activity showed distinctive winter peak, whereas PIV-3 and ADV peaked in the summer. Incidence of RSV was correlated with low environmental temperature, and PIV-3 only with high temperature. IV-A activity was correlated with both low temperature and high relative humidity. ADV activity was correlated with high total rainfall. In the ARIMA model, RSV-associated hospitalizations were predictable, and the monthly number of RSV cases decreased by 11.25 % (95 % CI: 5.34 % to 16.79 %) for every 1 °C increase in the average temperature. Seasonality of certain respiratory virus may be explained by meteorological influences. The impact of meteorological factors on the prevalence of RSV may be useful for predicting the activity of this virus.

positive: The Association of Social Distancing, Population Density, and Temperature with the SARS-CoV-2 Instantaneous Reproduction Number in Counties Across the United States Importance: The Covid-19 pandemic has been marked by considerable heterogeneity in outbreaks across the United States. Local factors that may be associated with variation in SARS-CoV-2 transmission have not been well studied. Objective: To examine the association of county-level factors with variation in the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number over time. Design: Observational study Setting: 211 counties in 46 states and the District of Columbia between February 25, 2020 and April 23, 2020. Participants: Residents within the counties (55% of the US population) Exposures: Social distancing as measured by percent change in visits to non-essential businesses, population density, lagged daily wet bulb temperatures. Main Outcomes and Measures: The instantaneous reproduction number (Rt) which is the estimated number of cases generated by one case at a given time during the pandemic. Results: Median case incidence was 1185 cases and fatality rate was 43.7 deaths per 100,000 people for the top decile of 21 counties, nearly ten times the incidence and fatality rate in the lowest density quartile. Average Rt in the first two weeks was 5.7 (SD 2.5) in the top decile, compared to 3.1 (SD 1.2) in the lowest quartile. In multivariable analysis, a 50% decrease in visits to non-essential businesses was associated with a 57% decrease in Rt (95% confidence interval, 56% to 58%). Cumulative temperature effects over 4 to 10 days prior to case incidence were nonlinear; relative Rt decreased as temperatures warmed above 32F to 53F, which was the point of minimum Rt, then increased between 53F and 66F, at which point Rt began to decrease. At 55F, and with a 70% reduction in visits to non-essential business, 96% of counties were estimated to fall below a threshold Rt of 1.0, including 86% of counties among the top density decile and 98% of counties in the lowest density quartile. Conclusions and Relevance: Social distancing, lower population density, and temperate weather change were associated with a decreased SARS-Co-V-2 Rt in counties across the United States. These relationships can inform selective public policy planning in communities during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

positive: Examine the impact of weather and ambient air pollutant parameters on daily case of COVID-19 in India. The present study presents a view on exploring the relationship pattern between COVID 19 daily cases with weather parameters and air pollutants in mainland India. We consider mean temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, rainfall, wind speed, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2 and CO as independent variable and daily COVID 19 cases as dependent variable for 18 states during 18th march to 30th April, 2020.After dividing the dataset for 0 to 10 day, 10 to 25 days and 0 to 44 days, the current study applied Akaike s Information Criteria (AIC) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to examine the kind of relationship between independent variables with COVID 19 cases. Initially GAM model result shows variables like temperature and solar radiation has positive relation (p<0.05) in 0 to 10 days study with daily cases. In 25 days dataset it significantly shows that temperature has positive relation above 23 degree centigrade, SO2 has a negative relationship and relative humidity has negative (between 30% to 45% and > 60%) and a positive relationship (45% to 60%) with COVID 19 cases (p=0.05). 44 days dataset has six parameters includes temperature as positive, relative humidity as negative (between 0 to 45%) and then positive (after >45%), NO2 as Positive (0 to 35 microgram/m3) followed by negative trend (after > 40 microgram/m3), SO2 and rainfall as negative relation. After sensitive analysis, it is found that weather variables like relative humidity, solar radiation and rainfall are more sensitive than temperature and wind speed. Whereas pollutants like NO2, PM2.5, PM10 and CO are more sensitive variables than SO2 in this study. In summary this study finds temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, SO2, PM2.5, and CO may be important factors associated with COVID 19 pandemic. Keywords: Weather parameter, Air pollutants, Daily COVID 19 cases, Akaike s Information Criteria (AIC), Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and Sensitive analysis.

positive: Temperature dependence of COVID-19 transmission The recent coronavirus pandemic follows in its early stages an almost exponential growth, with the number of cases quite well fit in time by $N(t)\propto e^{\alpha t}$, in many countries. We analyze the rate $\alpha$ for each country, starting from a threshold of 30 total cases and using the next 12 days, capturing thus the early growth homogeneously. We look for a link between $\alpha$ and the average temperature $T$ of each country, in the month of the epidemic growth. We analyze a {\it base} set of 42 countries, which developed the epidemic earlier, an {\it intermediate} set of 88 countries and an {\it extended} set of 125 countries, which developed the epidemic more recently. Applying a linear fit $\alpha(T)$, we find increasing evidence for a decreasing $\alpha$ as a function of $T$, at $99.66\%$C.L., $99.86\%$C.L. and $99.99995 \%$ C.L. ($p$-value $5 \cdot 10^{-7}$, or 5$\sigma$ detection) in the {\it base}, {\it intermediate} and {\it extended} dataset, respectively. The doubling time is expected to increase by $40\%\sim 50\%$, going from $5^\circ$ C to $25^\circ$ C. In the {\it base} set, going beyond a linear model, a peak at $(7.7\pm 3.6)^\circ C$ seems to be present, but its evidence disappears for the larger datasets. We also analyzed a possible bias: poor countries, often located in warm regions, might have less intense testing. By excluding countries below a given GDP per capita, we find that our conclusions are only slightly affected and only for the {\it extended} dataset. The significance remains high, with a $p$-value of $10^{-3}-10^{-4}$ or less. Our findings give hope that, for northern hemisphere countries, the growth rate should significantly decrease as a result of both warmer weather and lockdown policies. In general the propagation should be hopefully stopped by strong lockdown, testing and tracking policies, before the arrival of the cold season.

positive: Respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis, weather conditions and air pollution in an Italian urban area: An observational study Abstract Background In this study we sought to evaluate the association between viral bronchiolitis, weather conditions, and air pollution in an urban area in Italy. Methods We included infants hospitalized for acute bronchiolitis from 2004 to 2014. All infants underwent a nasal washing for virus detection. A regional agency network collected meteorological data (mean temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity) and the following air pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, benzene and suspended particulate matter measuring less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter. We obtained mean weekly concentration data for the day of admission, from the urban background monitoring sites nearest to each child's home address. Overdispersed Poisson regression model was fitted and adjusted for seasonality of the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection, to evaluate the impact of individual characteristics and environmental factors on the probability of a being positive RSV. Results Of the 723 nasal washings from the infants enrolled, 266 (68%) contained RSV, 63 (16.1%) rhinovirus, 26 (6.6%) human bocavirus, 20 (5.1%) human metapneumovirus, and 16 (2.2%) other viruses. The number of RSV-positive infants correlated negatively with temperature (p < 0.001), and positively with relative humidity (p < 0.001). Air pollutant concentrations differed significantly during the peak RSV months and the other months. Benzene concentration was independently associated with RSV incidence (p = 0.0124). Conclusions Seasonal weather conditions and concentration of air pollutants seem to influence RSV-related bronchiolitis epidemics in an Italian urban area.

positive: COVID-19: Effects of weather conditions on the propagation of respiratory droplets As the number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to increase, there has been a rising concern regarding the effect of weather conditions, especially over the upcoming summer, on the transmission of this disease. In this study, we assess the transmission of COVID-19 under different weather conditions by investigating the propagation of infectious respiratory droplets. A comprehensive mathematical model is established to explore their evaporation, heat transfer and kinematics under different temperature, humidity and ventilation conditions. The transmitting pathway of COVID-19 through respiratory droplets is divided into short-range droplet contacts and long-range aerosol exposure. We show that the effect of weather conditions is not monotonic: low temperature and high humidity facilitate droplet contact transmission, while high temperature and low humidity promote the formation of aerosol particles and accumulation of particles with a diameter of 2.5 m or less (PM2.5). Our model suggests that the 6 ft of social distance recommended by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) may be insufficient in certain environmental conditions, as the droplet spreading distance can be as long as 6 m (19.7 ft) in cold and humid weather. The results of this study suggest that the current pandemic may not ebb in the summer of the northern hemisphere without proper intervention, as there is an increasing chance of aerosol transmission. We also emphasize that the meticulous design of building ventilation systems is critical in containing both the droplet contact infections and aerosol exposures.

positive: A chemical cocktail during the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, China: Insights from six-year aerosol particle composition measurements during the Chinese New Year holiday The rapidly spread coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has limited people's outdoor activities and hence caused substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions around the world. However, the air quality in some megacities has not been improved as expected due to the complex responses of aerosol chemistry to the changes in precursors and meteorology. Here we demonstrate the responses of primary and secondary aerosol species to the changes in anthropogenic emissions during the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, China along with the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday effects on air pollution by using six-year aerosol particle composition measurements. Our results showed large reductions in primary aerosol species associated with traffic, cooking and coal combustion emissions by 30–50% on average during the CNY, while the decreases in secondary aerosol species were much small (5–12%). These results point towards a future challenge in mitigating secondary air pollution because the reduced gaseous precursors may not suppress secondary aerosol formation efficiently under stagnant meteorological conditions. By analyzing the long-term measurements from 2012 to 2020, we found considerable increases in the ratios of nitrate to sulfate, secondary to primary OA, and sulfur and nitrogen oxidation capacity despite the overall decreasing trends in mass concentrations of most aerosol species, suggesting that the decreases in anthropogenic emissions have facilitated secondary formation processes during the last decade. Therefore, a better understanding of the mechanisms driving the chemical responses of secondary aerosol to the changes in anthropogenic emissions under complex meteorological environment is essential for future mitigation of air pollution in China.

positive: Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China Abstract Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a severe public health problem globally. Both epidemiological and laboratory studies have shown that ambient temperature could affect the transmission and survival of coronaviruses. This study aimed to determine whether the temperature is an essential factor in the infection caused by this novel coronavirus. Methods Daily confirmed cases and meteorological factors in 122 cities were collected between January 23, 2020, to February 29, 2020. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases. We also used a piecewise linear regression to determine the relationship in detail. Results The exposure-response curves suggested that the relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases was approximately linear in the range of <3 °C and became flat above 3 °C. When mean temperature (lag0–14) was below 3 °C, each 1 °C rise was associated with a 4.861% (95% CI: 3.209–6.513) increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases. These findings were robust in our sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Our results indicate that mean temperature has a positive linear relationship with the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 3 °C. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline when the weather becomes warmer, which provides useful implications for policymakers and the public.

positive: A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, −0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastern China decreased below 0 °C (the STR ranged from 3.5 to 12.3 when the temperature was between −9.41 °C and −13.87 °C), whilst the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR was 1.21 ± 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 °C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly whereas a lower temperature (<0 °C) was exponentially associated with an increased transmission rate of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the mitigation of COVID-19 spread in densely populated and/or cold regions will be a great challenge.

positive: Chapter Three Climate Change and the Neglected Tropical Diseases Abstract Climate change is expected to impact across every domain of society, including health. The majority of the world's population is susceptible to pathological, infectious disease whose life cycles are sensitive to environmental factors across different physical phases including air, water and soil. Nearly all so-called neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) fall into this category, meaning that future geographic patterns of transmission of dozens of infections are likely to be affected by climate change over the short (seasonal), medium (annual) and long (decadal) term. This review offers an introduction into the terms and processes deployed in modelling climate change and reviews the state of the art in terms of research into how climate change may affect future transmission of NTDs. The 34 infections included in this chapter are drawn from the WHO NTD list and the WHO blueprint list of priority diseases. For the majority of infections, some evidence is available of which environmental factors contribute to the population biology of parasites, vectors and zoonotic hosts. There is a general paucity of published research on the potential effects of decadal climate change, with some exceptions, mainly in vector-borne diseases.

positive: Impact of Daily Weather on COVID-19 outbreak in India The COVID-19 pandemic has outspread obstreperously in India. As of June 04, 2020, more than 2 lakh cases have been confirmed with a death rate of 2.81%. It has been noticed that, out of each 1000 tests, 53 result positively infected. In order to investigate the impact of weather conditions on daily transmission occurring in India, daily data of Maximum (TMax), Minimum (TMin), Mean (TMean) and Dew Point Temperature (TDew), Diurnal Temperature range (TRange), Average Relative Humidity, Range in Relative Humidity, and Wind Speed (WS) over 9 most affected cities are analysed in several time frames: weather of that day, 7, 10, 12, 14, 16 days before transmission. Spearman rank correlation (r) shows significant but low correlation with most of the weather parameters, however, comparatively better association exists on 14 days lag. Diurnal range in Temperature and Relative Humidity shows non-significant correlation. Analysis shows, COVID-19 cases likely to be increased with increasing air temperature, however role of humidity is not clear. Among weather parameters, Minimum Temperature was relatively better correlate than other. 80% of the total confirmed cases were registered when TMax, TMean, TMin, TRange, TDew, and WS on 12-16 days ago vary within a range of 33.6-41.3 deg C, 29.8-36.5 deg C, 24.8-30.4 deg C, 7.5-15.2 deg C, 18.7-23.6 deg C, and 4.2-5.75 m/s respectively, hence, it gives an idea of susceptible weather conditions for such transmission in India. Using Support Vector Machine based regression, the daily cases are profoundly estimated with more than 80% accuracy, which indicate that coronavirus transmission cannot be well linearly correlated with any single weather parameters, rather multivariate non-linear approach must be employed. Accounting lag of 12-16 days, the association found to be excellent, thus depict that there is an incubation period of 12-16 days for coronavirus transmission in Indian scenario.

positive: Identification of climate factors related to human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China Human influenza infections display a strongly seasonal pattern. However, whether H7N9 and H5N1 infections correlate with climate factors has not been examined. Here, we analyzed 350 cases of H7N9 infection and 47 cases of H5N1 infection. The spatial characteristics of these cases revealed that H5N1 infections mainly occurred in the South, Middle, and Northwest of China, while the occurrence of H7N9 was concentrated in coastal areas of East and South of China. Aside from spatial-temporal characteristics, the most adaptive meteorological conditions for the occurrence of human infections by these two viral subtypes were different. We found that H7N9 infections correlate with climate factors, especially temperature (TEM) and relative humidity (RHU), while H5N1 infections correlate with TEM and atmospheric pressure (PRS). Hence, we propose a risky window (TEM 4–14 °C and RHU 65–95%) for H7N9 infection and (TEM 2–22 °C and PRS 980-1025 kPa) for H5N1 infection. Our results represent the first step in determining the effects of climate factors on two different virus infections in China and provide warning guidelines for the future when provinces fall into the risky windows. These findings revealed integrated predictive meteorological factors rooted in statistic data that enable the establishment of preventive actions and precautionary measures against future outbreaks.

positive: Eco-epidemiological assessment of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, January-February 2020 Background: The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in early 2020 provides a rich data source for exploring the ecological determinants of this new infection, which may be of relevance as the pandemic develops.Objectives: Assessing the spread of the COVID-19 across China, in relation to associations between cases and ecological factors including population density, temperature, solar radiation and precipitation.Methods: Open-access COVID-19 case data include 18,069 geo-located cases in China during January and February 2020, which were mapped onto a 0.25° latitude/longitude grid together with population and weather data (temperature, solar radiation and precipitation). Of 15,539 grid cells, 559 (3.6%) contained at least one case, and these were used to construct a Poisson regression model of cell-weeks. Weather parameters were taken for the preceding week given the established 5-7 day incubation period for COVID-19. The dependent variable in the Poisson model was incident cases per cell-week and exposure was cell population, allowing for clustering of cells over weeks, to give incidence rate ratios.Results: The overall COVID-19 incidence rate in cells with confirmed cases was 0.12 per 1,000. There was a single confirmed case in 113/559 (20.2%) of cells, while two grid cells recorded over 1,000 confirmed cases. Weekly means of maximum daily temperature varied from -28.0°C to 30.1°C, minimum daily temperature from -42.4°C to 23.0°C, maximum solar radiation from 0.04 to 2.74 MJm-2 and total precipitation from 0 to 72.6 mm. Adjusted incidence rate ratios suggested brighter, warmer and drier conditions were associated with lower incidence.Conclusion: Though not demonstrating cause and effect, there were appreciable associations between weather and COVID-19 incidence during the epidemic in China. This does not mean the pandemic will go away with summer weather but demonstrates the importance of using weather conditions in understanding and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.

positive: Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic with Climate Variables for Top Five Burdening and Three South Asian Countries Background: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is now in a horrific situation around the world. Prediction about the number of infected and death cases may help to take immediate action to prevent the epidemic as well as control the situation of a country. The ongoing debate about the climate factors may need more validation with more studies. The climate factors of the top-five affected countries and three south Asian countries have considered in this study to have a real-time forecast and robust validation about the impact of climate variables. Methods: The ARIMA model have included to model the univariate cumulative confirmed and death cases separately. The MLP, ELM and likelihood-based GLM count time series also considered as they consider the external variables as exogenous regressors. As the death count includes zero itself, zero-inflated count time series model has included instead of likelihood-based GLM. The better fitting of the ARIMA model will validate the underwhelm of meteorological factors was the initial hypothesis. The best model has identified through the application and comparison with the real data points. Results: The results depict that there is an influence of meteorological variables like temperature and humidity mostly for all the selected countries cumulative confirm cases excluding Italy and Sri-Lanka. However, the best models for deaths count of each country also identify the impact of meteorological variables for each country. Conclusion: The authors make the sixty days ahead forecast for each country which will be beneficial for the policymakers.

positive: The temperature and regional climate effects on communitarian COVID-19 contagion in Mexico throughout phase 1 Due to the close relationship between the incidence of infectious diseases by epidemics and environmental conditions, this research explores the temperature, evaporation, precipitation and regional climate effects on the local transmission of coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 inside 31 states and capital of Mexico since February 29 (national onset) to March 31, 2020. Statistical analysis was conducted to explore the association between the daily local COVID-19 confirmed positive cases (LCPC) and both climate characteristics and the daily weather reported by the regional meteorological stations. In this work, the local transmission ratio (LTR) was calculated with the regional LCPC divided by the number of the effective contagion days since regional onset in each state. The results showed a negative association between temperature (mean, max and min) and climate classification with both LCPC and LTR variables. The precipitation associated positively with LCPC and LTR. The associations between the climate classification with LCPC and LTR are statistically significant. The tropical climate (mean temperature around 25.95â¯°C and mean precipitation around 8.74â¯mm) delayed the regional onset. However, the regional onset in dry climates emerged earlier as consequence of the lower temperatures and higher precipitations (20.57â¯°C and 20.87â¯mm respectively) than the observed in the tropical climate. The fastest regional onsets were observed in tempered climates in states where the lowest temperatures and lowest precipitations were registered (19.65â¯°C and 8.48â¯mm respectively). Meteorological factors influenced the trend on the regional outbreaks in Mexican's states likely by the host predisposition and susceptibility during the cold winter season. In Mexico, the climate characteristics played a crucial role on the local infection during the phase 1 being the tempered regions (as Michoacán, Jalisco, Puebla, etc.) more vulnerable than the dry (as Chihuahua, Durango or Zacatecas, etc.) or tropical areas (as Colima, Campeche, Morelos etc.).

positive: Causal empirical estimates suggest COVID-19 transmission rates are highly seasonal Nearly every country is now combating the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19). It has been hypothesized that if COVID-19 exhibits seasonality, changing temperatures in the coming months will shift transmission patterns around the world. Such projections, however, require an estimate of the relationship between COVID-19 and temperature at a global scale, and one that isolates the role of temperature from confounding factors, such as public health capacity. This paper provides the first plausibly causal estimates of the relationship between COVID-19 transmission and local temperature using a global sample comprising of 166,686 confirmed new COVID-19 cases from 134 countries from January 22, 2020 to March 15, 2020. We find robust statistical evidence that a 1°C increase in local temperature reduces transmission by 13% [-21%, -4%, 95%CI]. In contrast, we do not find that specific humidity or precipitation influence transmission. Our statistical approach separates effects of climate variation on COVID-19 transmission from other potentially correlated factors, such as differences in public health responses across countries and heterogeneous population densities. Using constructions of expected seasonal temperatures, we project that changing temperatures between March 2020 and July 2020 will cause COVID-19 transmission to fall by 43% on average for Northern Hemisphere countries and to rise by 71% on average for Southern Hemisphere countries. However, these patterns reverse as the boreal winter approaches, with seasonal temperatures in January 2021 increasing average COVID-19 transmission by 59% relative to March 2020 in northern countries and lowering transmission by 2% in southern countries. These findings suggest that Southern Hemisphere countries should expect greater transmission in the coming months. Moreover, Northern Hemisphere countries face a crucial window of opportunity: if contagion-containing policy interventions can dramatically reduce COVID-19 cases with the aid of the approaching warmer months, it may be possible to avoid a second wave of COVID-19 next winter.

positive: Meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps in Fujian Province, China, 2005–2013: Non-linear effects Abstract Background Mumps is still an important public health issue in the world with several recent outbreaks. The seasonable distribution of the disease suggested that meteorological factors may influence the incidence of mumps. The aim of this study was to explore the possible association between meteorological factors and the incidence of mumps, and to provide scientific evidence to relevant health authorities for the disease control and prevention. Methods We obtained the data of mumps cases and daily meteorological factors in Fujian Province in Eastern China over the period of 2005–2013. Using distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) approach, we assessed the relationship between the meteorological factors and mumps incidence. Results The effects of meteorological factors on the mumps incidence were all non-linear. Compared with the lowest risk values, the upper level of precipitation, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity could increase the risk of mumps, whereas the low level of wind velocity, temperature, diurnal temperature range and sunshine duration may also increase the risk. Moderate atmospheric pressure and low wind velocity had larger cumulative effects within 30lagdays and the relative risks were 10.02 (95%CI: 2.47–40.71) and 12.45 (95%CI: 1.40–110.78). For temperature, the cumulative effect within 30lagdays of minimum temperature was higher than that from maximum temperature in most populations. The cumulative effects of minimum temperature for males, children aged 10–14 and students were higher than those in other populations. Conclusions Meteorological factors, especially temperature and wind velocity, should be taken into consideration in the prevention and warning of possible mumps epidemic. Special attention should be paid to the vulnerable populations, such as teenagers and young adults.

positive: Multivariate Analysis of Factors Affecting COVID-19 Case and Death Rate in U.S. Counties: The Significant Effects of Black Race and Temperature Objectives: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly around the world, and many risk factors including patient demographics, social determinants of health, environmental variables, underlying health conditions, and adherence to social distancing have been hypothesized to affect case and death rates. However, little has been done to account for the potential confounding effects of these factors. Using a large multivariate analysis, this study illuminates modulators of COVID-19 incidence and mortality in U.S. counties while controlling for risk factors across multiple domains. Methods: Data on COVID-19 and various risk factors in all U.S. counties was collected from publicly available data sources through April 14, 2020. Counties with at least 50 COVID-19 cases were included in case analyses and those with at least 10 deaths were included in mortality models. The 661 counties meeting inclusion criteria for number of cases were grouped into quartiles and comparisons of risk factors were made using t-tests between the highest and lowest quartiles. Similar comparisons for 217 counties were made for above average and below average deaths/100,000. Adjusted linear and logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent effects of factors that significantly impacted cases and deaths. Results: Univariate analyses demonstrated numerous significant differences between cohorts for both cases and deaths. Risk factors associated with increased cases and/or deaths per 100,000 included increased GDP per capita, decreased social distancing, increased age, increased percent Black, decreased percent Hispanic, decreased percent Asian, decreased health, increased poverty, increased diabetes, increased coronary heart disease, increased physical inactivity, increased alcohol consumption, increased tobacco use, and decreased access to primary care. Multivariate regression analyses demonstrated Black race is a risk factor for worse COVID-19 outcome independent of comorbidities, poverty, access to health care, and other mitigating factors. Lower daily temperatures was also an independent risk factor in case load but not deaths. Conclusions: U.S. counties with a higher proportion of Black residents are associated with increased COVID-19 cases and deaths. However, the various suggested mechanisms, such as socioeconomic and healthcare predispositions, did not appear to drive the effect of race in our model. Counties with higher average daily temperatures are also associated with decreased COVID-19 cases but not deaths. Several theories are posited to explain these findings, including prevalence of vitamin D deficiency. Additional studies are needed to further understand these effects.

positive: The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

positive: Containing the Spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Meteorological Factors and Control Strategies The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally and the meteorological factors vary greatly across the world. Understanding the effect of meteorological factors and control strategies on COVID-19 transmission is critical to contain the epidemic. Using individual-level data in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and the number of confirmed cases in other regions, we explore the effect of temperature, relative humidity, and control measures on the spread of COVID-19. We found that high temperature mitigates the transmission of the disease. High relative humidity promotes COVID-19 transmission when temperature is low, but tends to reduce transmission when temperature is high. Implementing classical control measures can dramatically slow the spread of the disease. However, due to the occurrence of pre-symptomatic infections, the effect of the measures to shorten onset-to-isolation time is markedly reduced and the importance of contact tracing and quarantine and social distancing increases. The analytic results also highlight the importance of early intervention to contain the spread of COVID-19.

positive: Enhanced COVID-19 data for improved prediction of survival The current COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the rapid world-wide spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is having severe consequences for human health and the world economy. The virus effects individuals quite differently, with many infected patients showing only mild symptoms, and others showing critical illness. To lessen the impact of the pandemic, one important question is which factors predict the death of a patient? Here, we construct an enhanced COVID-19 dataset by processing two existing databases (from Kaggle and WHO) and using natural language processing methods to enhance the data by adding local weather conditions and research sentiment. Author summary In this study, we contribute an enhanced COVID-19 dataset, which contains 183 samples and 43 features. Application of Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) on the enhanced dataset achieves 95% accuracy in predicting patients survival, with country-wise research sentiment, and then age and local weather, showing the most importance. All data and source code are available at http://ab.inf.uni-tuebingen.de/publications/papers/COVID-19.

positive: Weathering the pandemic: How the Caribbean Basin can use viral and environmental patterns to predict, prepare, and respond to COVID-19 The 2020 coronavirus pandemic is developing at different paces throughout the world. Some areas, like the Caribbean Basin, have yet to see the virus strike at full force. When it does, there is reasonable evidence to suggest the consequent COVID-19 outbreaks will overwhelm healthcare systems and economies. This is particularly concerning in the Caribbean as pandemics can have disproportionately higher mortality impacts on lower and middle-income countries. Preliminary observations from our team and others suggest that temperature and climatological factors could influence the spread of this novel coronavirus, making spatiotemporal predictions of its infectiousness possible. This review studies geographic and time-based distribution of known respiratory viruses in the Caribbean Basin in an attempt to foresee how the pandemic will develop in this region. This review is meant to aid in planning short- and long-term interventions to manage outbreaks at the international, national, and subnational levels in the region.

positive: Effects of temperature and humidity on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic review. Background: Faced with the global pandemic of COVID-19, declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11th 2020, and the need to better understand the seasonal behavior of the virus, our team conducted this systematic review to describe current knowledge about the emergence and replicability of the virus and its correlation with different weather factors such as temperature and relative humidity. Methods: The review was registered with the PROSPERO database. The electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, LILACS, OpenGrey and Google Scholar were examined with the searches restricted to the years 2019 and 2020. Risk of bias assessment was performed using the Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) Critical Appraisal Checklist tool. The GRADE tool was used to assess the quality of the evidence. Results: The initial screening identified 517 articles. After examination of the full texts, seventeen studies met the review's eligibility criteria. Great homogeneity was observed in the findings regarding the effect of temperature and humidity on the seasonal viability and transmissibility of COVID-19. Cold and dry conditions were potentiating factors on the spread of the virus. After quality assessment, four studies had a high risk of bias and thirteen studies were scored as moderate risk of bias. The certainty of evidence was graded as low for both outcomes evaluated. Conclusion: Considering the existing scientific evidence, warm and wet climates seem to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The certainty of the evidence generated was graded as low. However, these variables alone could not explain most of the variability in disease transmission.

positive: Does weather affect the growth rate of COVID-19, a study to comprehend transmission dynamics on human health Abstract The undefendable outbreak of novel coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) lead to a global health emergency due to its higher transmission rate and longer symptomatic duration, created a health surge in a short time. Since Nov 2019 the outbreak in China, the virus is spreading exponentially everywhere. The current study focuses on the relationship between environmental parameters and the growth rate of COVID-19. The statistical analysis suggests that the temperature changes retarded the growth rate and found that -6.28°C and +14.51°C temperature is the favorable range for COVID-19 growth. Gutenberg- Richter's relationship is used to estimate the mean daily rate of exceedance of confirmed cases concerning the change in temperature. Indeed, temperature is the most influential parameter that reduces the growth at the rate of 13-17 cases/day with a 1°C rise in temperature.

positive: Assessing Climate Change Impact on Ecosystems and Infectious Disease: Important Roles for Genomic Sequencing and a One Health Perspective Changes in the Earth’s climate and weather continue to impact the planet’s ecosystems, including the interface of infectious disease agents with their hosts and vectors. Environmental disasters, natural and human-made activities raise risk factors that indirectly facilitate infectious disease outbreaks. Subsequently, changes in habitat, displaced populations, and environmental stresses that affect the survival of species are amplified over time. The recurrence and spread of vector-borne (e.g., mosquito, tick, aphid) human, animal, and plant pathogens to new geographic locations are also influenced by climate change. The distribution and range of humans, agricultural animals and plants, wildlife and native plants, as well as vectors, parasites, and microbes that cause neglected diseases of the tropics as well as other global regions are also impacted. In addition, genomic sequencing can now be applied to detect signatures of infectious pathogens as they move into new regions. Molecular detection assays complement metagenomic sequencing to help us understand the microbial community found within the microbiomes of hosts and vectors, and help us uncover mechanistic relationships between climate variability and pathogen transmission. Our understanding of, and responses to, such complex dynamics and their impacts can be enhanced through effective, multi-sectoral One Health engagement coupled with applications of both traditional and novel technologies. Concerted efforts are needed to further harness and leverage technology that can identify and track these impacts of climate changes in order to mitigate and adapt to their effects.

positive: Impact of meteorological factors on the COVID-19 transmission: A multi-city study in China Abstract The purpose of the present study is to explore the associations between novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case counts and meteorological factors in 30 provincial capital cities of China. We compiled a daily dataset including confirmed case counts, ambient temperature (AT), diurnal temperature range (DTR), absolute humidity (AH) and migration scale index (MSI) for each city during the period of January 20th to March 2nd, 2020. First, we explored the associations between COVID-19 confirmed case counts, meteorological factors, and MSI using non-linear regression. Then, we conducted a two-stage analysis for 17 cities with more than 50 confirmed cases. In the first stage, generalized linear models with negative binomial distribution were fitted to estimate city-specific effects of meteorological factors on confirmed case counts. In the second stage, the meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the pooled effects. Our results showed that among 13 cities that have less than 50 confirmed cases, 9 cities locate in the Northern China with average AT below 0 °C, 12 cities had average AH below 4 g/m3, and one city (Haikou) had the highest AH (14.05 g/m3). Those 17 cities with 50 and more cases accounted for 90.6% of all cases in our study. Each 1 °C increase in AT and DTR was related to the decline of daily confirmed case counts, and the corresponding pooled RRs were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.75, 0.85) and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86, 0.95), respectively. For AH, the association with COVID-19 case counts were statistically significant in lag 07 and lag 014. In addition, we found the all these associations increased with accumulated time duration up to 14 days. In conclusions, meteorological factors play an independent role in the COVID-19 transmission after controlling population migration. Local weather condition with low temperature, mild diurnal temperature range and low humidity likely favor the transmission.

positive: Correlation between climate indicators and COVID-19 pandemic in New York, USA Abstract This study analyzed the association between COVID-19 and climate indicators in New York City, USA. We used secondary published data from New York city health services and National weather service, USA. The climate indicators included in the study are average temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, rainfall, average humidity, wind speed, and air quality. Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests were chosen for data analysis. We find that average temperature, minimum temperature, and air quality were significantly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings of this study will help World Health Organization and health regulators such as Center for Disease Control (CDC) to combat COVID-19 in New York and the rest of the world.

positive: Effect of ambient air pollutants and meteorological variables on COVID-19 incidence OBJECTIVE: To determine whether ambient air pollutants and meteorological variables are associated with daily COVID-19 incidence. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort from January 25 to February 29, 2020. SETTING: Cities of Wuhan, Xiaogan, and Huanggang, China. PATIENTS: The COVID-19 cases detected each day. METHODS: We collected daily data of COVID-19 incidence, 8 ambient air pollutants (particulate matter of ≤2.5 µm [PM(2.5)], particulate matter ≤10 µm [PM(10)], sulfur dioxide [SO(2)], carbon monoxide [CO], nitrogen dioxide [NO(2)], and maximum 8-h moving average concentrations for ozone [O(3)-8h]) and 3 meteorological variables (temperature, relative humidity, and wind) in China’s 3 worst COVID-19–stricken cities during the study period. The multivariate Poisson regression was performed to understand their correlation. RESULTS: Daily COVID-19 incidence was positively associated with PM(2.5) and humidity in all cities. Specifically, the relative risk (RR) of PM(2.5) for daily COVID-19 incidences were 1.036 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.032–1.039) in Wuhan, 1.059 (95% CI, 1.046–1.072) in Xiaogan, and 1.144 (95% CI, 1.12–1.169) in Huanggang. The RR of humidity for daily COVID-19 incidence was consistently lower than that of PM(2.5), and this difference ranged from 0.027 to 0.111. Moreover, PM(10) and temperature also exhibited a notable correlation with daily COVID-19 incidence, but in a negative pattern The RR of PM(10) for daily COVID-19 incidence ranged from 0.915 (95% CI, 0.896–0.934) to 0.961 (95% CI, 0.95–0.972, while that of temperature ranged from 0.738 (95% CI, 0.717–0.759) to 0.969 (95% CI, 0.966–0.973). CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that PM(2.5) and humidity are substantially associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 and that PM(10) and temperature are substantially associated with a decreased risk of COVID-19.

positive: Influence of wind and relative humidity on the social distancing effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 airborne transmission: A numerical study It has been confirmed that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can transmit through droplets created when an infected human coughs or sneezes. Accordingly, 1.83-m (6-feet) social distancing is advised to reduce the spread of the disease among humans. This is based on the assumption that no air circulation exists around people. However, it is not well investigated whether the ambient wind and relative humidity (RH) will cause SARS-CoV-2 laden droplets to transport farther in the air, making the current social distancing policy insufficient. To provide evidence and insight into the “social distancing” guidelines, a validated computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) model was employed to simulate the transient transport, condensation/evaporation, and deposition of SARS-CoV-2 laden droplets emitted by coughs, with different environmental wind velocities and RHs. Initial droplet diameters range from 2 to 2000 μm, and the wind velocities range from 0 to 16 km/h, representing different wind forces from calm air to moderate breeze. The comparison between a steady-state wind and a gust with a constant frequency has also been performed. Ambient RHs are 40% and 99.5%. The distances between the two virtual humans are 1.83 m and 3.05 m (6 feet and 10 feet). The facial covering effect on reducing the airborne transmission of the cough droplets has also been evaluated. Numerical results indicate that the ambient wind will enhance the complexity of the secondary flows with recirculation between the two virtual humans. Microdroplets follow the airflow streamlines well and deposit on both human bodies and head regions, even with the 3.05-m (10-feet) separation distance. The rest of the microdroplets can transport in the air farther than 3.05 m (10 feet) due to wind convection, causing a potential health risk to nearby people. High RH will increase the droplet sizes due to the hygroscopic growth effect, which increases the deposition fractions on both humans and the ground. With the complex environmental wind and RH conditions, the 6-feet social distancing policy may not be sufficient to protect the inter-person aerosol transmission, since the suspending micro-droplets were influenced by convection effects and can be transported from the human coughs/sneezes to the other human in less than 5 s. Thus, due to the complex real-world environmental ventilation conditions, a social distance longer than 6 feet needs to be considered. Wearing masks should also be recommended for both infected and healthy humans to reduce the airborne cough droplet numbers.

positive: Does temperature and humidity influence the spread of Covid-19?: A preliminary report INTRODUCTION: Climate change has been known to influence infectious diseases. The reason for this being the fact; disease agents and their vectors each have particular environments that are optimal for growth, survival, transport, and dissemination. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The WHO's website was accessed to look for the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) situation dashboard and comprehensively study and assess the report. An attempt was made to look for countries, areas or territories with maximum and minimum number of cases of lab confirmed COVID cases. Further, we entered the words “Climate“ in google for each of the aforementioned countries and searched for the results. A comparison was established by including countries from both the hemispheres (northern and southern). The preliminary analysis was based on the reports from countries with established testing facilities for Covid-19. RESULTS: The report suggests that countries with higher number of cases are the countries with cold weather. These are also the countries with low humidity which could be favoring the transmission and survival of the SARS-COV-2. CONCLUSIONS: The results though preliminary point to a pattern which favors the hypothesis that the extensive spread of Covid-19 maybe limited by temperature and humidity.

positive: Sub-continental Atmosphere and Inherent Immune System may have Impact on Novel Corona Virus' 2019 (nCovid-19) Prevalence in South East Asia. Pandemic enveloped RNA Novel Corona Virus' 2019 (SARS-CoV-2) appears as a beating reed which induce overwhelming outbreak all over the world since November 2019 to till date. Inherent Immunity developed by traditional food habit, exposure to various antigens and vitamin D induced sunlight exposure. Meteorological parameters are the important factors which influencing the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) like infectious disease. Aim of this review to enhance our knowledge and explore the association among build up immunity, weather parameters and Corona virus disease (COVID-19) death. In this review we emphasize role of meteorological factor included degree of sun exposure and effect of temperature on enveloped lipid bi-layer structure of Novel corona virus. These meteorological factors and inherent immunity may have impact on SARS-CoV-2 incidence among South East Asian including Bangladeshi. In summary, this study suggests that temperature-humidity variation, inherent immunity and lower life expectancy of South East Asia may be important.

positive: Influence of wind and relative humidity on the social distancing effectiveness to prevent COVID-19 airborne transmission: A numerical study It has been confirmed that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can transmit through droplets created when an infected human coughs or sneezes. Accordingly, 1.83-m (6-feet) social distancing is advised to reduce the spread of the disease among humans. This is based on the assumption that no air circulation exists around people. However, it is not well investigated whether the ambient wind and relative humidity (RH) will cause SARS-CoV-2 laden droplets to transport farther in the air, making the current social distancing policy insufficient. To provide evidence and insight into the "social distancing" guidelines, a validated computational fluid-particle dynamics (CFPD) model was employed to simulate the transient transport, condensation/evaporation, and deposition of SARS-CoV-2 laden droplets emitted by coughs, with different environmental wind velocities and RHs. Initial droplet diameters range from 2 to 2000â¯µm, and the wind velocities range from 0 to 16â¯km/h, representing different wind forces from calm air to moderate breeze. The comparison between a steady-state wind and a gust with a constant frequency has also been performed. Ambient RHs are 40% and 99.5%. The distances between the two virtual humans are 1.83â¯m and 3.05â¯m (6 feet and 10 feet). The facial covering effect on reducing the airborne transmission of the cough droplets has also been evaluated. Numerical results indicate that the ambient wind will enhance the complexity of the secondary flows with recirculation between the two virtual humans. Microdroplets follow the airflow streamlines well and deposit on both human bodies and head regions, even with the 3.05-m (10-feet) separation distance. The rest of the microdroplets can transport in the air farther than 3.05â¯m (10 feet) due to wind convection, causing a potential health risk to nearby people. High RH will increase the droplet sizes due to the hygroscopic growth effect, which increases the deposition fractions on both humans and the ground. With the complex environmental wind and RH conditions, the 6-feet social distancing policy may not be sufficient to protect the inter-person aerosol transmission, since the suspending micro-droplets were influenced by convection effects and can be transported from the human coughs/sneezes to the other human in less than 5â¯s. Thus, due to the complex real-world environmental ventilation conditions, a social distance longer than 6 feet needs to be considered. Wearing masks should also be recommended for both infected and healthy humans to reduce the airborne cough droplet numbers.

positive: The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log(10)) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.

positive: A climatologic investigation of the SARS-CoV outbreak in Beijing, China The first cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) were identified in November 2002, in Guangdong Province, China. The epidemic spread rapidly within China and internationally, with 8454 recorded infections and 792 deaths by June 15, 2003. Temperature, relative humidity, and wind velocity were the three key meteorological determinants affecting the transmission of SARS. The peak spread of SARS occurred at a mean temperature of 16.9 degrees C (95% CI, 10.7 degrees C to 23.1 degrees C), with a mean relative humidity of 52.2% (95% CI, 33.0% to 71.4%) and wind speed of 2.8 ms(-1) (95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6 ms(-1)). In northern China, these conditions are most likely to occur in the spring and suggest that SARS has a seasonal nature akin to viruses such as influenza and the common cold. A regression equation (Y=218.692-0.698X(t)-2.043X(h)+2.282X(w)) was derived to represent the optimal climatic conditions for the 2003 SARS epidemic. Further investigations in other regions are necessary to verify these results.

positive: Predict the next moves of COVID-19: reveal the temperate and tropical countries scenario The spread of COVID-19 engulfs almost all the countries and territories of the planet, and infections and fatality are increasing rapidly. The first epi-center of its' massive spread was in Wuhan, Hubei province, China having a temperate weather, but the spread has got an unprecedented momentum in European temperate countries mainly in Italy and Spain (as of March 30, 2020). However, Malaysia and Singapore and the neighboring tropical countries of China got relatively low spread and fatality that created a research interest on whether there are potential impacts of weather condition on COVID-19 spread. Adopting the SIR (Susceptible Infected Removed) deviated model to predict potential cases and death in the coming days from COVID-19 was done using the secondary and official sources of data. This study shows that COVID-19 spread and fatality tend to be high across the world but compared to tropical countries, it is going to be incredibly high in the temperate countries having lower temperature (7-16°C) and humidity (80-90%) in last March. However, some literature predicted that this might not to be true, rather irrespective of weather conditions there might be a continuous spread and death. Moreover, a large number of asymptotic COVID-19 carrier in both temperate and tropical countries may re-outbreak in the coming winter. Therefore, a comprehensive global program with the leadership of WHO for testing of entire population of the world is required, which will be very useful for the individual states to take proper political action, social movement and medical services.

positive: Assessing the relationship between surface levels of PM2.5 and PM10 particulate matter impact on COVID-19 in Milan, Italy Abstract The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly pathogenic, transmittable and invasive pneumococcal disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerged in December 2019 and January 2020 in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China and fast spread later on the middle of February 2020 in the Northern part of Italy and Europe. This study investigates the correlation between the degree of accelerated diffusion and lethality of COVID-19 and the surface air pollution in Milan metropolitan area, Lombardy region, Italy. Daily average concentrations of inhalable particulate matter (PM) in two size fractions PM2.5, PM10 and maxima PM10 ground level atmospheric pollutants together air quality and climate variables (daily average temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, atmospheric pressure field and Planetary Boundary Layer-PBL height) collected during 1 January–30 April 2020 were analyzed. In spite of being considered primarily transmitted by indoor bioaerosols droplets and infected surfaces, or direct human-to-human personal contacts, it seems that high levels of urban air pollution, weather and specific climate conditions have a significant impact on the increased rates of confirmed COVID-19 Total number, Daily New and Total Deaths cases, possible attributed not only to indoor but also to outdoor airborne bioaerosols distribution. Our analysis demonstrates the strong influence of daily averaged ground levels of particulate matter concentrations, positively associated with average surface air temperature and inversely related to air relative humidity on COVID-19 cases outbreak in Milan. Being a novel pandemic coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) version, COVID-19 might be ongoing during summer conditions associated with higher temperatures and low humidity levels. Presently is not clear if this protein “spike” of the new coronavirus COVID-19 is involved through attachment mechanisms on indoor or outdoor airborne aerosols in the infectious agent transmission from a reservoir to a susceptible host in some agglomerated urban areas like Milan is.

positive: Optimal temperature zone for the dispersal of COVID-19 Abstract It is essential to know the environmental parameters within which the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can survive to understand its global dispersal pattern. We found that 60.0% of the confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in places where the air temperature ranged from 5 °C to 15 °C, with a peak in cases at 11.54 °C. Moreover, approximately 73.8% of the confirmed cases were concentrated in regions with absolute humidity of 3 g/m3 to 10 g/m3. SARS-CoV-2 appears to be spreading toward higher latitudes. Our findings suggest that there is an optimal climatic zone in which the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 markedly increases in the ambient environment (including the surfaces of objects). These results strongly imply that the COVID-19 pandemic may spread cyclically and outbreaks may recur in large cities in the mid-latitudes in autumn 2020.

positive: No Association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities No Association of COVID-19 transmission with temperature or UV radiation in Chinese cities

positive: Climate change and infectious diseases: What can we expect? Global climate change, driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is being particularly felt in Canada, with warming generally greater than in the rest of the world. Continued warming will be accompanied by changes in precipitation, which will vary across the country and seasons, and by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change will likely drive the emergence of infectious diseases in Canada by northward spread from the United States and introduction from elsewhere in the world via air and sea transport. Diseases endemic to Canada are also likely to re-emerge. This special issue describes key infectious disease risks associated with climate change. These include emergence of tick-borne diseases in addition to Lyme disease, the possible introduction of exotic mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, more epidemics of Canada-endemic vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus, and increased incidence of foodborne illnesses. Risk is likely to be compounded by an aging population affected by chronic diseases, which results in greater sensitivity to infectious diseases. Identifying emerging disease risks is essential to assess our vulnerability, and a starting point to identify where public health effort is required to reduce the vulnerability and exposure of the Canadian population.

positive: Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a severe public health problem globally. Both epidemiological and laboratory studies have shown that ambient temperature could affect the transmission and survival of coronaviruses. This study aimed to determine whether the temperature is an essential factor in the infection caused by this novel coronavirus. METHODS: Daily confirmed cases and meteorological factors in 122 cities were collected between January 23, 2020, to February 29, 2020. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases. We also used a piecewise linear regression to determine the relationship in detail. RESULTS: The exposure-response curves suggested that the relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases was approximately linear in the range of <3 °C and became flat above 3 °C. When mean temperature (lag0-14) was below 3 °C, each 1 °C rise was associated with a 4.861% (95% CI: 3.209-6.513) increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases. These findings were robust in our sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that mean temperature has a positive linear relationship with the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 3 °C. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline when the weather becomes warmer, which provides useful implications for policymakers and the public.

positive: Effects of temperature on COVID-19 transmission Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2), it was first identified in 2019 in Wuhan, China and has resulted in the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic. As of March 1, 2020, 79,968 patients in China and 7169 outside of China had tested positive for COVID19 and a mortality rate of 3.6% has been observed amongst Chinese patients. Its primary mode of transmission is via respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes. The virus can remain viable for up to three days on plastic and stainless steel or in aerosols for upto 3 hours and is relatively more stable than the known human coronaviruses. It is stable in faeces at room temperature for at least 1-2 days and can be stable in infected patients for up to 4 days. Heat at 56 degree Celsius kills the SARS coronavirus at around 10000 units per 15 minutes. Thus, temperature is an important factor in survival of COVID19 virus and this article focuses on understanding the relationship between temperature and COVID19 transmission from the data available between January-March 2020.

positive: Investigating a serious challenge in the sustainable development process: Analysis of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (new type of Coronavirus) through a binary classification using artificial intelligence and regression analysis Nowadays, sustainable development is considered a key concept and solution in creating a promising and prosperous future for human societies. Nevertheless, there are some predicted and unpredicted problems that epidemic diseases are real and complex problems. Hence, in this research work, a serious challenge in the sustainable development process was investigated using the classification of confirmed cases of COVID-19 (new version of Coronavirus) as one of the epidemic diseases. Hence, binary classification modeling was used by the group method of data handling (GMDH) type of neural network as one of the artificial intelligence methods. For this purpose, the Hubei province in China was selected as a case study to construct the proposed model, and some important factors, namely maximum, minimum, and average daily temperature, the density of a city, relative humidity, and wind speed, were considered as the input dataset, and the number of confirmed cases was selected as the output dataset for 30 days. The proposed binary classification model provides higher performance capacity in predicting the confirmed cases. In addition, regression analysis has been done and the trend of confirmed cases compared with the fluctuations of daily weather parameters (wind, humidity, and average temperature). The results demonstrated that the relative humidity and maximum daily temperature had the highest impact on the confirmed cases. The relative humidity in the main case study, with an average of 77.9%, affected positively, and maximum daily temperature, with an average of 15.4 ◦C, affected negatively, the confirmed cases.

positive: Impact of weather indicators on the COVID-19 outbreak: A multi-state study in India The present study examines the impact of weather indicators on the COVID-19 outbreak in the majorly affected states of India. In this study, we hypothesize that the weather indicators could significantly influence the impact of the corona virus. The Kendall and Spearman rank correlation tests were chosen to conduct the statistical analysis. In this regard, we compiled a daily dataset including confirmed case counts, Recovered case counts, Deceased cases, Average Temperature, Maximum Relative Humidity, Maximum Wind Speed for six most affected states of India during the period of March 25, 2020 to April 24, 2020. We investigated that the average Humidity and Average Temperature seven days ago play a significant role in the recovery of coronavirus cases. The rise in average temperature will improve the recovery rate in the days to come. The cities with very high humidity levels or dry weather conditions have high probabilities of recovery from COVID-19. The findings of this research will help the policymakers to identify risky geographic areas and enforce timely preventive measures.

positive: COVID-19 and Environmental factors. A PRISMA-compliant systematic review The emergence of a novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its airborne spread via droplets. The impact of environmental factors on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is under consideration. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the impact of environmental factors on human coronaviruses. Temperature, humidity and other environmental factors have been recorded as environmental drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in China and in other countries. Higher temperatures might be positive to decrease the COVID-19 incidence. In our review, the analysis of 23 studies show evidence that high temperature and high humidity reduce the COVID-19 transmission. However, further studies concerning other environmental (namely meteorological) factors role should be conducted in order to further prove this correlation. As no specific therapies are available for SARS-CoV-2, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.

positive: Methods for air cleaning and protection of building occupants from airborne pathogens Abstract This article aims to draw the attention of the scientific community towards the elevated risks of airborne transmission of diseases and the associated risks of epidemics or pandemics. The complexity of the problem and the need for multidisciplinary research is highlighted. The airborne route of transmission, i.e. the generation of pathogen laden droplets originating in the respiratory tract of an infected individual, the survivability of the pathogens, their dispersal indoors and their transfer to a healthy person are reviewed. The advantages and the drawbacks of air dilution, filtration, ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI), photocatalytic oxidation (PCO), plasmacluster ions and other technologies for air disinfection and purification from pathogens are analyzed with respect to currently used air distribution principles. The importance of indoor air characteristics, such as temperature, relative humidity and velocity for the efficiency of each method is analyzed, taking into consideration the nature of the pathogens themselves. The applicability of the cleaning methods to the different types of total volume air distribution used at present indoors, i.e. mixing, displacement and underfloor ventilation, as well as advanced air distribution techniques (such as personalized ventilation) is discussed.

positive: Stability of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses in the environment and on common touch surfaces and the influence of climatic conditions: a review Although the unprecedented efforts the world has been taking to control the spread of the human coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its causative etiology [Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)], the number of confirmed cases has been increasing drastically. Therefore, there is an urgent need for devising more efficient preventive measures, to limit the spread of the infection until an effective treatment or vaccine is available. The preventive measures depend mainly on the understanding of the transmission routes of this virus, its environmental stability, and its persistence on common touch surfaces. Due to the very limited knowledge about SARS-CoV-2, we can speculate its stability in the light of previous studies conducted on other human and animal coronaviruses. In this review, we present the available data on the stability of coronaviruses (CoVs), including SARS-CoV-2, from previous reports to help understand its environmental survival. According to available data, possible airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been suggested. SARS-CoV-2 and other human and animal CoVs have remarkably short persistence on copper, latex, and surfaces with low porosity as compared to other surfaces like stainless steel, plastics, glass, and highly porous fabrics. It has also been reported that SARS-CoV-2 is associated with diarrhea and that it is shed in the feces of COVID-19 patients. Some CoVs show persistence in human excrement, sewage, and waters for a few days. These findings suggest a possible risk of fecal-oral, foodborne, and waterborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in developing countries that often use sewage-polluted waters in irrigation and have poor water treatment systems. CoVs survive longer in the environment at lower temperatures and lower relative humidity. It has been suggested that large numbers of COVID-19 cases are associated with cold and dry climates in temperate regions of the world and that seasonality of the virus spread is suspected.

positive: Correlation between meteorological factors and COVID-19 infection in the Belem Metropolitan Region Many factors can influence then spread of viruses and respiratory infections. Studies have suggested that there is a direct relationship between environmental issues and population density with cases of COVID-19. In this sense, this research aims to analyze, through correlational study and Krigagem, the relationship of meteorological and demographic variables with cases of COVID-19 in regions of subtropical climate in Brazil. The results suggest that population and demographic density (hab/km2) are risk factors for the spread of SAR-CoV-2 and an increase in the daily case record of COVID-19. The distribution of cases according to age group did not present a significant disparity between men and women. Relative humidity (RH)%, average temperature Celsius, minimum temperature Celsius, maximum temperature Celsius, wind speed m/s and daily precipitation (rain) mm show negative relationships with cases of COVID-19 in regions of humid equatorial climate. Analysis between associations of environmental factors, wind, temperature and HR in a region is extremely important to understand the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the environment. In the northern region of Brazil, low wind speed, high temperatures and high RH are observed, environmental factors that, when associated, reduce the transmission process because it hinders the movement of the virus in the environment. In this sense, it is suggested that the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in this region is disseminated through fluids in the air between man/man and by contact between objects/men. Therefore, strategic public policies to combat the pandemic must consider the environmental factors of the regions involved and control and/or blocking the transit of people.

positive: Survival of the Enveloped Virus Phi6 in Droplets as a Function of Relative Humidity, Absolute Humidity, and Temperature Infectious diseases caused by enveloped viruses, such as influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), cause thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of economic losses per year. Studies have found a relationship among temperature, humidity, and influenza virus incidence, transmission, or survival; however, there are contradictory claims about whether absolute humidity (AH) or relative humidity (RH) is most important in mediating virus infectivity. Using the enveloped bacteriophage Phi6, which has been suggested as a surrogate for influenza viruses and coronaviruses, we designed a study to discern whether AH, RH, or temperature is a better predictor of virus survival in droplets. Our results show that Phi6 survived best at high (>85%) and low (<60%) RHs, with a significant decrease in infectivity at mid-range RHs (∼60 to 85%). At an AH of less than 22 g · m(−3), the loss in infectivity was less than 2 orders of magnitude; however, when the AH was greater than 22 g · m(−3), the loss in infectivity was typically greater than 6 orders of magnitude. At a fixed RH of 75%, infectivity was very sensitive to temperature, decreasing two orders of magnitude between 19°C and 25°C. We used random forest modeling to identify the best environmental predictors for modulating virus infectivity. The model explained 83% of variation in Phi6 infectivity and suggested that RH is the most important factor in controlling virus infectivity in droplets. This research provides novel information about the complex interplay between temperature, humidity, and the survival of viruses in droplets. IMPORTANCE Enveloped viruses are responsible for a number of infectious diseases resulting in thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of economic losses per year in the United States. There has been a lively debate in the literature over whether absolute humidity (AH) or relative humidity (RH) modulates virus infectivity. We designed a controlled study and used advanced statistical modeling techniques specifically to address this question. By providing an improved understanding of the relationship between environmental conditions and virus infectivity, our work will ultimately lead to improved strategies for predicting and controlling disease transmission.

positive: How diseases rise and fall with the seasons—and what it could mean for coronavirus Scientists and doctors have observed for thousands of years that some diseases, such as polio and influenza, rise and fall with the seasons But why? Ongoing research in animals and humans suggests a variety of causes, including changes in the environment (like pH, temperature, and humidity) and even seasonal and daily changes to our own immune systems Figuring out those answers could one day make all the difference in minimizing the impact of infectious disease outbreaks—such as coronavirus disease 2019

positive: Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections Abstract Influenza A and B, and many unrelated viruses including rhinovirus, RSV, adenovirus, metapneumovirus and coronavirus share the same seasonality, since these viral acute respiratory tract infections (vARIs) are much more common in winter than summer. Unfortunately, early investigations that used recycled “pedigree” virus strains seem to have led microbiologists to dismiss the common folk belief that vARIs often follow chilling. Today, incontrovertible evidence shows that ambient temperature dips and host chilling increase the incidence and severity of vARIs. This review considers four possible mechanisms, M1 - 4, that can explain this link: (M1) increased crowding in winter may enhance viral transmission; (M2) lower temperatures may increase the stability of virions outside the body; (M3) chilling may increase host susceptibility; (M4) lower temperatures or host chilling may activate dormant virions. There is little evidence for M1 or M2, which are incompatible with tropical observations. Epidemiological anomalies such as the repeated simultaneous arrival of vARIs over wide geographical areas, the rapid cessation of influenza epidemics, and the low attack rate of influenza within families are compatible with M4, but not M3 (in its simple form). M4 seems to be the main driver of seasonality, but M3 may also play an important role.

positive: The sensitivity and specificity analyses of ambient temperature and population size on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in different provinces of Iran Abstract On 10 April 2020, Iran reported 68,192 COVID-19 cumulative cases including 4232 death and 35,465 recovery cases. Numerous factors could influence the transmission rate and survival of coronavirus. On this basis and according to the latest epidemiological researches, both ambient temperature (AT) and population size (PS) can be considered as significant transmissibility factors for coronavirus. The analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) allows measuring the performance of a classification model using the confusion matrix. This study intends to investigate the sensitivity of AT and PS on the transmission rate of the novel coronavirus in different provinces of Iran. For this purpose, the information of each province of Iran including the annual average of AT and the number of healthy and diseased cases are categorized. Subsequently, the sensitivity and specificity analyses of both AT and PS factors are performed. The obtained results confirm that AT and PS have low sensibility and high sensitivity, respectively. Thus, there is no scientific reason to confirm that the number of COVID-19 cases in warmer climates is less than that of moderate or cold climates. Therefore, it is recommended that the cities/provinces with a population of over 1.7 million people have stricter inspections and more precise controls as their management policy.

positive: COVID-19 in Egypt: Uncovered figures or a different situation?

positive: The role of absolute humidity on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak A novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and has caused over 40,000 cases worldwide to date. Previous studies have supported an epidemiological hypothesis that cold and dry (low absolute humidity) environments facilitate the survival and spread of droplet-mediated viral diseases, and warm and humid (high absolute humidity) environments see attenuated viral transmission (i.e., influenza). However, the role of absolute humidity in transmission of COVID-19 has not yet been established. Here, we examine province-level variability of the basic reproductive numbers of COVID-19 across China and find that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the North Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in COVID-19 case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions.

positive: Impact of meteorological parameters on the Covid-19 incidence. The case of the city of Oran, Algeria. Several studies have confirmed the impact of weather conditions on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic. We wanted to verify this phenomenon in the city of Oran in Algeria, which experienced its first case of Covid19 on March 19, 2020. The data studied are the new Covid19 cases, the average, minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the relative humidity rate. A first analysis of the data with a Spearman rank correlation test did not yield significant results. Taking into account the average incubation period to adjust the data made it possible, during a second analysis, to show that the minimum temperature is significantly correlated with the new cases of Covid19 in Oran. This study can help establish prevention policies against Covid19, especially during fall in temperatures in autumn and winter.

positive: Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the COVID-19 pandemic Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic probing different scenarios of climate-dependence based on known coronavirus biology. We find that while variations in humidity may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 climate may drive only modest changes to pandemic size and duration. Our results suggest that, in the absence of effective control measures, significant cases in the coming months are likely to occur in more humid (warmer) climates, irrespective of the climate-dependence of transmission and that summer temperatures will not substantially limit pandemic growth.

negative: Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.

negative: Public enemy number one The new coronavirus is no small threat, but we are starting to understand how it works, reports Michael Marshall

negative: An outbreak of COVID‐19 caused by a new coronavirus: what we know so far

negative: SKP2 attenuates autophagy through Beclin1-ubiquitination and its inhibition reduces MERS-Coronavirus infection Autophagy is an essential cellular process affecting virus infections and other diseases and Beclin1 (BECN1) is one of its key regulators. Here, we identified S-phase kinase-associated protein 2 (SKP2) as E3 ligase that executes lysine-48-linked poly-ubiquitination of BECN1, thus promoting its proteasomal degradation. SKP2 activity is regulated by phosphorylation in a hetero-complex involving FKBP51, PHLPP, AKT1, and BECN1. Genetic or pharmacological inhibition of SKP2 decreases BECN1 ubiquitination, decreases BECN1 degradation and enhances autophagic flux. Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) multiplication results in reduced BECN1 levels and blocks the fusion of autophagosomes and lysosomes. Inhibitors of SKP2 not only enhance autophagy but also reduce the replication of MERS-CoV up to 28,000-fold. The SKP2-BECN1 link constitutes a promising target for host-directed antiviral drugs and possibly other autophagy-sensitive conditions.

negative: Virome genomics: a tool for defining the human virome High throughput, deep sequencing assays are powerful tools for gaining insights into virus–host interactions. Sequencing assays can discover novel viruses and describe the genomes of novel and known viruses. Genomic information can predict viral proteins that can be characterized, describe important genes in the host that control infections, and evaluate gene expression of viruses and hosts during infection. Sequencing can also describe variation and evolution of viruses during replication and transmission. This review recounts some of the major advances in the studies of virus–host interactions from the last two years, and discusses the uses of sequencing technologies relating to these studies.

negative: Understanding the emerging coronavirus: what it means for health security and infection prevention

negative: Protecting the psychological health of children through effective communication about COVID-19

negative: An evolutionary change in diagnostic virology. The earliest laboratory diagnoses of viral infections were made by microscopy just after the turn of the twentieth century. Animal and egg inoculation were the methods of choice until tissue culture and serology accelerated the field of diagnostic virology during the fifties and sixties. More rapid methods, including electron microscopy, immunoassays, and nucleic acid probes, are now available and influencing laboratory decisions and patient care. This review discusses changes in science and society which have influenced diagnostic virology and how the discipline has responded to these influences.

negative: How the SARS coronavirus causes disease: host or organism? The previous epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) has ended. However, many questions concerning how the aetiological agent, the novel SARS coronavirus (CoV), causes illness in humans remain unanswered. The pathology of fatal cases of SARS is dominated by diffuse alveolar damage. Specific histological changes are not detected in other organs. These contrast remarkably with the clinical picture, in which there are apparent manifestations in multiple organs. Both pathogen and host factors are important in the pathogenesis of SARS. The choice of specific receptors and the unique genome of the SARS‐CoV are important elements in understanding the biology of the pathogen. For the host cells, the outcome of SARS‐CoV infection, whether there are cytopathic effects or not, depends on the cell types that are infected. At the whole‐body level, immune‐mediated damage, due to activation of cytokines and/or chemokines and, perhaps, autoimmunity, may play key roles in the clinical and pathological features of SARS. Continued research is still required to determine the pathogenetic mechanisms involved and to combat this new emerging human infectious disease. Copyright © 2006 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

negative: Climate change and infectious disease: time for a new normal?

negative: Integrated urban services: Experience from four cities on different continents Abstract Rapid urbanization combined with climate change necessitates new types of urban services that make best use of science and technology. The Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services and systems are a new initiative from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that seeks to provide science-based integrated urban services supporting safe, healthy and resilient cities. Various cities have already started development and implementation of such Integrated Urban Services and successfully test and use them following specific requirements of local stakeholders. This paper demonstrates the novel concept and approach of Integrated Urban Hydro-Meteorological, Climate and Environmental Services (IUS) from a set of four case study cities: Hong Kong, Toronto, Mexico City and Paris, that use different IUS configurations with good existing practice. These cities represent a range of countries, climates and geophysical settings. The aggregate main joint similarities of the IUS in these cities and synergy of the cities' experience, achievements and research findings are presented, as well as identification of existing gaps in knowledge and further research needs. A list of potential criteria for identifying and classifying IUS demonstration cities is proposed. It will aid future, more detailed analysis of the IUS experience, and selection of additional demonstration cities.

negative: Contributions of the viral genetic background and a single amino acid substitution in an immunodominant CD8+ T-cell epitope to murine coronavirus neurovirulence. The immunodominant CD8+ T-cell epitope of a highly neurovirulent strain of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV), JHM, is thought to be essential for protection against virus persistence within the central nervous system. To test whether abrogation of this H-2Db-restricted epitope, located within the spike glycoprotein at residues S510 to 518 (S510), resulted in delayed virus clearance and/or virus persistence we selected isogenic recombinants which express either the wild-type JHM spike protein (RJHM) or spike containing the N514S mutation (RJHM(N514S)), which abrogates the response to S510. In contrast to observations in suckling mice in which viruses encoding inactivating mutations within the S510 epitope (epitope escape mutants) were associated with persistent virus and increased neurovirulence (Pewe et al., J Virol. 72:5912-5918, 1998), RJHM(N514S) was not more virulent than the parental, RJHM, in 4-week-old C57BL/6 (H-2b) mice after intracranial injection. Recombinant viruses expressing the JHM spike, wild type or encoding the N514S substitution, were also selected in which background genes were derived from the neuroattenuated A59 strain of MHV. Whereas recombinants expressing the wild-type JHM spike (SJHM/RA59) were highly neurovirulent, A59 recombinants containing the N514S mutation (SJHM(N514S)/RA59) were attenuated, replicated less efficiently, and exhibited reduced virus spread in the brain at 5 days postinfection (peak of infectious virus titers in the central nervous system) compared to parental virus encoding wild-type spike. Virulence assays in BALB/c mice (H-2d), which do not recognize the S510 epitope, revealed that attenuation of the epitope escape mutants was not due to the loss of a pathogenic immune response directed against the S510 epitope. Thus, an intact immunodominant S510 epitope is not essential for virus clearance from the CNS, the S510 inactivating mutation results in decreased virulence in weanling mice but not in suckling mice, suggesting that specific host conditions are required for epitope escape mutants to display increased virulence, and the N514S mutation causes increased attenuation in the context of A59 background genes, demonstrating that genes other than that for the spike are also important in determining neurovirulence.

negative: Insights from the Association of SARS-CoV S-Protein with its Receptor, ACE2

negative: Scientific Opinion on the welfare of cattle kept for beef production and the welfare in intensive calf farming systems Information given in previous Opinions “Welfare of cattle kept for beef production” (SCAHAW, 2001) and “The risks of poor welfare in intensive calf farming systems” (EFSA, 2006) is updated and recent scientific evidence on the topics reviewed. Risks of poor welfare are identified using a structured analysis, and issues not identified in the SCAHAW (2001) beef Opinion, especially effects of housing and management on enteric and respiratory diseases are reviewed. The Opinion covers all systems of beef production, although the welfare of suckler cows or breeding bulls is not considered. The Chapter on beef cattle presents new evidence and recommendations in relation to heat and cold stress, mutilations and pain management, digestive disorders linked to high concentrate feeds and respiratory disorders linked to overstocking, inadequate ventilation, mixing of animals and failure of early diagnosis and treatment. Major welfare problems in cattle kept for beef production, as identified by risk assessment, were respiratory diseases linked to overstocking, inadequate ventilation, mixing of animals and failure of early diagnosis and treatment, digestive disorders linked to intensive concentrate feeding, lack of physically effective fibre in the diet, and behavioural disorders linked to inadequate floor space, and co‐mingling in the feedlot. Major hazards for white veal calves were considered to be iron‐deficiency anaemia, a direct consequence of dietary iron restriction, enteric diseases linked to high intakes of liquid feed and inadequate intake of physically effective fibre, discomfort and behavioural disorders linked to inadequate floors and floor space.

negative: Managing business relationships during a pandemic: Conducting a relationship audit and developing a path forward Abstract During stable times, firms will generally aim to create reliable B2B relationships that provide increased efficiency and profitability. However, tumultuous times, such as the time during a major pandemic, cause many significant disruptions in both internal and external environmental domains. Thus, we argue that it is critical during this time to reevaluate the company's business relationships as a whole. While long-term partnerships are great for handling incremental changes during stable times, disruptive environmental changes may require managers to consider disruptive changes to their businesses. A pandemic may also present opportunities for establishing new relationships as there may be other partners/suppliers who are better equipped to help the company address urgent short-term needs and to capitalize on significant long-term opportunities. In this paper, we design a new relationship audit template to help B2B firms weather the immediate crisis at hand and position themselves more strategically for the future. We explore this idea in relation to the coronavirus outbreak, introduce the idea of a B2B crisis relationship audit, and offer potential steps forward for firms.

negative: Genetic diversity and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Abstract COVID-19 is a viral respiratory illness caused by a new coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. The World Health Organization declared the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a global public health emergency. We performed genetic analyses of eighty-six complete or near-complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and revealed many mutations and deletions on coding and non-coding regions. These observations provided evidence of the genetic diversity and rapid evolution of this novel coronavirus.

negative: Émergences et barrières d’espèces Résumé Les infections virales émergentes sont définies ici comme celles dont l’incidence a augmenté les 20 dernières années. Ces infections concernent l’homme, mais aussi les viroses animales, touchant les animaux domestiques ou sauvages. Pour l’homme, les émergences virales sont d’origine zoonotique, et sont souvent le fait d’un franchissement de barrière d’espèces. Ce passage interespèces est favorisé par de nombreuses circonstances : variations environnementales, climatiques, bioterrorisme, potentiel évolutif du virus... La recherche du réservoir animal est capitale pour la prévention des réémergences, et pour l’éradication potentielle de la maladie. La réussite émergentielle de certains virus a eu des conséquences graves en santé publique humaine : pandémies grippales, pandémie de sida, fièvres hémorragiques, et plus récemment syndrome de détresse respiratoire aigu (SRAS). Abstract Emergent viral infections are defined as those the incidence of which has increased over the last 20 years. These infections concern human but also animal viruses affecting wild or tame animals. In human, emergent viruses are of zoonotic origin and often due to crossing of species barrier. This inter-species crossing is promoted by various circumstances: environmental and climatic variations, bioterrorism, evolutive potential of the virus, etc. Screening for the animal reservoir is extremely important to prevent re-emergence and to eradicate the disease. The emergential success of some viruses has had serious consequences on human public health: flu pandemics, AIDS pandemic, hemorrhagic fever, and more recently SARS.

negative: Emergency Preparedness—Planning and Management In general, emergencies can be divided into internal and external situations. Regardless of the nature of the emergency, the organizational response will be quite different when the emergency condition exists within the facility from when it occurs at some distant location. The actual emergency response programs of healthcare facilities indicate that much more effort has gone into a prepared response to external emergencies than to internal emergencies. Exceptions can be found in the areas of fire safety and bomb threat programs, in which various regulatory and accrediting agencies have considerable involvement. The planning and management of emergency incidents and conditions that healthcare organizations face daily come in many sizes, shapes, and colors. While some of these situations are intentionally created by man, others result from unintentional accidents, and still others are weather related. Each and every day, facilities react to a variety of emergency conditions.

negative: How the SARS vaccine effort can learn from HIV—speeding towards the future, learning from the past A remarkable collaborative effort coordinated by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) team at WHO resulted in discovery of the etiologic agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome less than 2 months after the announcement of global alert. The development of a vaccine to prevent SARS should be pursued with the same urgency and cooperative spirit, as SARS is highly lethal and, if not controlled during the first few generations of transmission, is likely to become endemic in regions of the world where health-care infrastructure is underdeveloped and epidemiological control measures are weak. The scientific community already learned many important lessons from HIV vaccine development; these should be heeded. For example, consideration should be given to the development of a vaccine that will protect across regional strains of SARS, as the newly emergent coronavirus SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is proving to be variable and may be mutating in response to immune pressure. SARS-specific research reagents should also be collected and shared. These would include SARS peptides, adjuvants, DNA vaccine vectors and clinical grade viral vectors. Rapidly developing a collaborative approach to developing a SARS vaccine that will be both effective and safe is the only way to go. This article reviews parallels between HIV and SARS and proposes an approach that would accelerate the development of a SARS vaccine.

negative: Chapter 6 Ecoepidemiology of Alphaviruses and Flaviviruses Abstract Within the ecosystems, the balance is important since the populations maintain their size and the food habits that are constant over time; in contrast, the disappearance of natural sources or the alteration of habitat at different levels can cause major changes in the very structure of the ecosystem. Alterations in the habitats produced by human activity result in global warming, climatic changes, which together with globalization, increased trade, the shortening of distances thanks to transport, the increase in population and the socioeconomic activities of human cause imbalances. In many cases the vectors and hosts have adapted to the changes and have risen to higher latitudes and altitudes, which could contribute to the appearance of outbreaks or new outbreaks of new arboviruses of public health importance. Different cohabiting species can be reservoirs or vectors of arboviruses such as alphaviruses and flaviviruses. Currently, some viruses transmitted by mosquito vectors, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya virus, have caused epidemic outbreaks with important effects on human populations. It is possible that the expansion of vectors and their diseases reaches developed countries such as the United States and the European Union with a great impact on public health. The clinical signs of the diseases produced by arboviruses can vary from nonspecific febrile syndrome, encephalitis, hemorrhagic fever, and even death. Vectors and reservoirs in some cases are insects, such as mosquitoes and ticks; wild birds are reservoirs for the West Nile virus, small wild mammals such as rodents, bats, and domestic animals involved in food production can potentially harbor arboviruses, and the ecoepidemiological role of these is unknown.

negative: A double epidemic model for the SARS propagation BACKGROUND: An epidemic of a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) caused by a new coronavirus has spread from the Guangdong province to the rest of China and to the world, with a puzzling contagion behavior. It is important both for predicting the future of the present outbreak and for implementing effective prophylactic measures, to identify the causes of this behavior. RESULTS: In this report, we show first that the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model cannot account for the patterns observed in various regions where the disease spread. We develop a model involving two superimposed epidemics to study the recent spread of the SARS in Hong Kong and in the region. We explore the situation where these epidemics may be caused either by a virus and one or several mutants that changed its tropism, or by two unrelated viruses. This has important consequences for the future: the innocuous epidemic might still be there and generate, from time to time, variants that would have properties similar to those of SARS. CONCLUSION: We find that, in order to reconcile the existing data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest that a first milder outbreak protected against the SARS. Regions that had not seen the first epidemic, or that were affected simultaneously with the SARS suffered much more, with a very high percentage of persons affected. We also find regions where the data appear to be inconsistent, suggesting that they are incomplete or do not reflect an appropriate identification of SARS patients. Finally, we could, within the framework of the model, fix limits to the future development of the epidemic, allowing us to identify landmarks that may be useful to set up a monitoring system to follow the evolution of the epidemic. The model also suggests that there might exist a SARS precursor in a large reservoir, prompting for implementation of precautionary measures when the weather cools down.

negative: Caution on Kidney Dysfunctions of COVID-19 Patients Summary Background: To date, large amounts of epidemiological and case study data have been available for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), which suggested that the mortality was related to not just respiratory complications. Here, we specifically analyzed kidney functions in COVID-19 patients and their relations to mortality. Methods: In this multi-centered, retrospective, observational study, we included 193 adult patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 2 hospitals in Wuhan, 1 hospital in Huangshi (Hubei province, 83 km from Wuhan) and 1 hospital in Chongqing (754 km from Wuhan). Demographic data, symptoms, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes were all collected, including data regarding to kidney functions. Data were compared among three groups: non-severe COVID-19 patients (128), severe COVID-19 patients (65) and a control group of other pneumonia (28). For the data from computed tomographic (CT) scans, we also included a control group of healthy subjects (110 cases, without abnormalities in the lung and without kidney diseases). The primary outcome was a common presence of kidney dysfunctions in COVID-19 patients and the occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in a fraction of COVID-19 patients. Secondary outcomes included a survival analysis of COVID-19 patients in conditions of AKI or comorbid chronic illnesses. Findings: We included 193 COVID-19 patients (128 non-severe, 65 severe (including 32 non-survivors), between January 6th and February 21th,2020; the final date of follow-up was March 4th, 2020) and 28 patients of other pneumonia (15 of viral pneumonia, 13 of mycoplasma pneumonia) before the COVID-19 outbreak. On hospital admission, a remarkable fraction of patients had signs of kidney dysfunctions, including 59% with proteinuria, 44% with hematuria, 14% with increased levels of blood urea nitrogen, and 10% with increased levels of serum creatinine, although mild but worse than that in cases with other pneumonia. While these kidney dysfunctions might not be readily diagnosed as AKI at admission, over the progress during hospitalization they could be gradually worsened and diagnosed as AKI. A univariate Cox regression analysis showed that proteinuria, hematuria, and elevated levels of blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, uric acid as well as D-dimer were significantly associated with the death of COVID-19 patients respectively. Importantly, the Cox regression analysis also suggested that COVID-19 patients that developed AKI had a ~5.3-times mortality risk of those without AKI, much higher than that of comorbid chronic illnesses (~1.5 times risk of those without comorbid chronic illnesses). Interpretation: To prevent fatality in such conditions, we suggested a high degree of caution in monitoring the kidney functions of severe COVID-19 patients regardless of the past disease history. In addition, upon day-by-day monitoring, clinicians should consider any potential interventions to protect kidney functions at the early stage of the disease and renal replacement therapies in severely ill patients, particularly for those with strong inflammatory reactions or a cytokine storm. Funding: None.

negative: A large and accurate collection of peptidase cleavages in the MEROPS database Peptidases are enzymes that hydrolyse peptide bonds in proteins and peptides. Peptidases are important in pathological conditions such as Alzheimer's disease, tumour and parasite invasion, and for processing viral polyproteins. The MEROPS database is an Internet resource containing information on peptidases, their substrates and inhibitors. The database now includes details of cleavage positions in substrates, both physiological and non-physiological, natural and synthetic. There are 39 118 cleavages in the collection; including 34 606 from a total of 10 513 different proteins and 2677 cleavages in synthetic substrates. The number of cleavages designated as ‘physiological’ is 13 307. The data are derived from 6095 publications. At least one substrate cleavage is known for 45% of the 2415 different peptidases recognized in the MEROPS database. The website now has three new displays: two showing peptidase specificity as a logo and a frequency matrix, the third showing a dynamically generated alignment between each protein substrate and its most closely related homologues. Many of the proteins described in the literature as peptidase substrates have been studied only in vitro. On the assumption that a physiologically relevant cleavage site would be conserved between species, the conservation of every site in terms of peptidase preference has been examined and a number have been identified that are not conserved. There are a number of cogent reasons why a site might not be conserved. Each poorly conserved site has been examined and a reason postulated. Some sites are identified that are very poorly conserved where cleavage is more likely to be fortuitous than of physiological relevance. This data-set is freely available via the Internet and is a useful training set for algorithms to predict substrates for peptidases and cleavage positions within those substrates. The data may also be useful for the design of inhibitors and for engineering novel specificities into peptidases. Database URL: http://merops.sanger.ac.uk

negative: Synchronized shift of oral, faecal and urinary microbiotas in bats and natural infection dynamics during seasonal reproduction Seasonal reproduction is a period of extreme physiological and behavioural changes, yet we know little about how it may affect host microbial communities (i.e. microbiota) and pathogen transmission. Here, we investigated shifts of the bacterial microbiota in saliva, urine and faeces during the seasonal reproduction of bats in South Africa, and test for an interaction in shedding patterns of both bacterial (Leptospira) and viral (adeno- and herpesviruses) agents. Based on a comparative approach in two cave-dwelling bat species and high-throughput sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, we demonstrated a clear signature in microbiota changes over the reproduction season, consistent across the multiple body habitats investigated, and associated with the sex, age and reproductive condition of bats. We observed in parallel highly dynamic shedding patterns for both bacteria and viruses, but did not find a significant association between viral shedding and bacterial microbiota composition. Indeed, only Leptospira shedding was associated with alterations in both the diversity and composition of the urinary microbiota. These results illustrate how seasonal reproduction in bats substantially affects microbiota composition and infection dynamics, and have broad implications for the understanding of disease ecology in important reservoir hosts, such as bats.

negative: Diseases of the Liver and Hepatobiliary System

negative: Zoonotic disease risk perceptions in the British veterinary profession Abstract In human and veterinary medicine, reducing the risk of occupationally-acquired infections relies on effective infection prevention and control practices (IPCs). In veterinary medicine, zoonoses present a risk to practitioners, yet little is known about how these risks are understood and how this translates into health protective behaviour. This study aimed to explore risk perceptions within the British veterinary profession and identify motivators and barriers to compliance with IPCs. A cross-sectional study was conducted using veterinary practices registered with the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons. Here we demonstrate that compliance with IPCs is influenced by more than just knowledge and experience, and understanding of risk is complex and multifactorial. Out of 252 respondents, the majority were not concerned about the risk of zoonoses (57.5%); however, a considerable proportion (34.9%) was. Overall, 44.0% of respondents reported contracting a confirmed or suspected zoonoses, most frequently dermatophytosis (58.6%). In veterinary professionals who had previous experience of managing zoonotic cases, time or financial constraints and a concern for adverse animal reactions were not perceived as barriers to use of personal protective equipment (PPE). For those working in large animal practice, the most significant motivator for using PPE was concerns over liability. When assessing responses to a range of different “infection control attitudes”, veterinary nurses tended to have a more positive perspective, compared with veterinary surgeons. Our results demonstrate that IPCs are not always adhered to, and factors influencing motivators and barriers to compliance are not simply based on knowledge and experience. Educating veterinary professionals may help improve compliance to a certain extent, however increased knowledge does not necessarily equate to an increase in risk-mitigating behaviour. This highlights that the construction of risk is complex and circumstance-specific and to get a real grasp on compliance with IPCs, this construction needs to be explored in more depth.

negative: Adaptive human behavior in epidemiological models. The science and management of infectious disease are entering a new stage. Increasingly public policy to manage epidemics focuses on motivating people, through social distancing policies, to alter their behavior to reduce contacts and reduce public disease risk. Person-to-person contacts drive human disease dynamics. People value such contacts and are willing to accept some disease risk to gain contact-related benefits. The cost-benefit trade-offs that shape contact behavior, and hence the course of epidemics, are often only implicitly incorporated in epidemiological models. This approach creates difficulty in parsing out the effects of adaptive behavior. We use an epidemiological-economic model of disease dynamics to explicitly model the trade-offs that drive person-to-person contact decisions. Results indicate that including adaptive human behavior significantly changes the predicted course of epidemics and that this inclusion has implications for parameter estimation and interpretation and for the development of social distancing policies. Acknowledging adaptive behavior requires a shift in thinking about epidemiological processes and parameters.

negative: Ethics and Terror Medicine The field of medicine has long been defined not only by diagnostic and treatment techniques but also by standards of behavior. The Hippocratic Oath was introduced about the same time as the concept of case histories and prognosis, in ancient Greece, fifth century BCE. Despite vast changes in medicine through the ages, the oath’s core message continues to resonate: that a physician has a special responsibility to perform honorably. Forms of the Hippocratic Oath are still recited during graduation ceremonies at medical schools, many in the United States, though the classical version has been altered to suit contemporary values.(1) For example, passages in the early oath that prohibited the practice of abortion or euthanasia now are commonly omitted. The shifting text is a reflection of attempts to accommodate medical ethics to new findings, experiences, and values.

negative: Pathogen seasonality and links with weather in England and Wales: a big data time series analysis BACKGROUND: Many infectious diseases of public health importance display annual seasonal patterns in their incidence. We aimed to systematically document the seasonality of several human infectious disease pathogens in England and Wales, highlighting those organisms that appear weather-sensitive and therefore may be influenced by climate change in the future. METHODS: Data on infections in England and Wales from 1989 to 2014 were extracted from the Public Health England (PHE) SGSS surveillance database. We conducted a weekly, monthly and quarterly time series analysis of 277 pathogen serotypes. Each organism’s time series was forecasted using the TBATS package in R, with seasonality detected using model fit statistics. Meteorological data hosted on the MEDMI Platform were extracted at a monthly resolution for 2001–2011. The organisms were then clustered by K-means into two groups based on cross correlation coefficients with the weather variables. RESULTS: Examination of 12.9 million infection episodes found seasonal components in 91/277 (33%) organism serotypes. Salmonella showed seasonal and non-seasonal serotypes. These results were visualised in an online Rshiny application. Seasonal organisms were then clustered into two groups based on their correlations with weather. Group 1 had positive correlations with temperature (max, mean and min), sunshine and vapour pressure and inverse correlations with mean wind speed, relative humidity, ground frost and air frost. Group 2 had the opposite but also slight positive correlations with rainfall (mm, > 1 mm, > 10 mm). CONCLUSIONS: The detection of seasonality in pathogen time series data and the identification of relevant weather predictors can improve forecasting and public health planning. Big data analytics and online visualisation allow the relationship between pathogen incidence and weather patterns to be clarified. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5931-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19): The epidemic and the challenges The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2; previously provisionally named 2019 novel coronavirus or 2019-nCoV) disease (COVID-19) in China at the end of 2019 has caused a large global outbreak and is a major public health issue. As of 11 February 2020, data from the World Health Organization (WHO) have shown that more than 43 000 confirmed cases have been identified in 28 countries/regions, with >99% of cases being detected in China. On 30 January 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as the sixth public health emergency of international concern. SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to two bat-derived severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronaviruses, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21. It is spread by human-to-human transmission via droplets or direct contact, and infection has been estimated to have mean incubation period of 6.4 days and a basic reproduction number of 2.24–3.58. Among patients with pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus pneumonia or Wuhan pneumonia), fever was the most common symptom, followed by cough. Bilateral lung involvement with ground-glass opacity was the most common finding from computed tomography images of the chest. The one case of SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia in the USA is responding well to remdesivir, which is now undergoing a clinical trial in China. Currently, controlling infection to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is the primary intervention being used. However, public health authorities should keep monitoring the situation closely, as the more we can learn about this novel virus and its associated outbreak, the better we can respond.

negative: Cytokine systems approach demonstrates differences in innate and pro-inflammatory host responses between genetically distinct MERS-CoV isolates BACKGROUND: The recent emergence of a novel coronavirus in the Middle East (designated MERS-CoV) is a reminder of the zoonotic and pathogenic potential of emerging coronaviruses in humans. Clinical features of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) include atypical pneumonia and progressive respiratory failure that is highly reminiscent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused by SARS-CoV. The host response is a key component of highly pathogenic respiratory virus infection. Here, we computationally analyzed gene expression changes in a human airway epithelial cell line infected with two genetically distinct MERS-CoV strains obtained from human patients, MERS-CoV SA 1 and MERS-CoV Eng 1. RESULTS: Using topological techniques, including persistence homology and filtered clustering, we performed a comparative transcriptional analysis of human Calu-3 cell host responses to the different MERS-CoV strains, with MERS-CoV Eng 1 inducing early kinetic changes, between 3 and 12 hours post infection, compared to MERS-CoV SA 1. Robust transcriptional changes distinguished the two MERS-CoV strains predominantly at the late time points. Combining statistical analysis of infection and cytokine-stimulated Calu-3 transcriptomics, we identified differential innate responses, including up-regulation of extracellular remodeling genes following MERS-CoV Eng 1 infection and differential pro-inflammatory responses. CONCLUSIONS: Through our genomics-based approach, we found topological differences in the kinetics and magnitude of the host response to MERS-CoV SA 1 and MERS-CoV Eng 1, with differential expression of innate immune and pro-inflammatory responsive genes as a result of IFN, TNF and IL-1α signaling. Predicted activation for STAT3 mediating gene expression relevant for epithelial cell-to-cell adherens and junction signaling in MERS-CoV Eng 1 infection suggest that these transcriptional differences may be the result of amino acid differences in viral proteins known to modulate innate immunity during MERS-CoV infection. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1471-2164-15-1161) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Work-related Covid-19 transmission Importance: Our study helps fill the knowledge gap related to work-related transmission in the emerging coronaviral pandemic. Objective: To demonstrate high-risk occupations for early coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) local transmission. Methods: In this observational study, we extracted confirmed Covid-19 cases from governmental investigation reports in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. We followed each country/area for 40 days after its first locally transmitted case, and excluded all imported cases. We defined a possible work-related case as a worker with evidence of close contact with another confirmed case due to work, or an unknown contact history but likely to be infected in the working environment (e.g. an airport taxi driver). We calculated the case number for each occupation, and illustrated the temporal distribution of all possible work-related cases and healthcare worker (HCW) cases. The temporal distribution was further defined as early outbreak (the earliest 10 days of the following period) and late outbreak (11th to 40th days of the following period). Results: We identified 103 possible work-related cases (14.9%) among a total of 690 local transmissions. The five occupation groups with the most cases were healthcare workers (HCWs) (22%), drivers and transport workers (18%), services and sales workers (18%), cleaning and domestic workers (9%) and public safety workers (7%). Possible work-related transmission played a substantial role in early outbreak (47.7% of early cases). Occupations at risk varied from early outbreak (predominantly services and sales workers, drivers, construction laborers, and religious professionals) to late outbreak (predominantly HCWs, drivers, cleaning and domestic workers, police officers, and religious professionals). Conclusions: Work-related transmission is considerable in early Covid-19 outbreaks, and the elevated risk of infection was not limited to HCW. Implementing preventive/surveillance strategies for high-risk working populations is warranted.

negative: Epitope-based chimeric peptide vaccine design against S, M and E proteins of SARS-CoV-2 etiologic agent of global pandemic COVID-19: an in silico approach Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a public health emergency of international concern declared by the World Health Organization (WHO). An immuno-informatics approach along with comparative genomic was applied to design a multi-epitope-based peptide vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 combining the antigenic epitopes of the S, M and E proteins. The tertiary structure was predicted, refined and validated using advanced bioinformatics tools. The candidate vaccine showed an average of ≥ 90.0% world population coverage for different ethnic groups. Molecular docking of the chimeric vaccine peptide with the immune receptors (TLR3 and TLR4) predicted efficient binding. Immune simulation predicted significant primary immune response with increased IgM and secondary immune response with high levels of both IgG1 and IgG2. It also increased the proliferation of T-helper cells and cytotoxic T-cells along with the increased INF-γ and IL-2 cytokines. The codon optimization and mRNA secondary structure prediction revealed the chimera is suitable for high-level expression and cloning. Overall, the constructed recombinant chimeric vaccine candidate demonstrated significant potential and can be considered for clinical validation to fight against this global threat, COVID-19.

negative: Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults RAPID COMMUNICATION 22 March 2020 Estimating excess 1- year mortality from COVID-19 according to underlying conditions and age in England: a rapid analysis using NHS health records in 3.8 million adults Background: The medical, health service, societal and economic impact of the COVID-19 emergency has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom (to date at least) have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high risk conditions or their longer term background (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence rates and differing mortality impacts. Methods: Using population based linked primary and secondary care electronic health records in England (HDR UK - CALIBER), we report the prevalence of underlying conditions defined by UK Public Health England COVID-19 guidelines (16 March 2020) in 3,862,012 individuals aged ≥30 years from 1997-2017. We used previously validated phenotypes, openly available (https://caliberresearch.org/portal), for each condition using ICD-10 diagnosis, Read, procedure and medication codes. We estimated the 1-year mortality in each condition, and developed simple models of excess COVID-19-related deaths assuming relative risk (RR) of the impact of the emergency (compared to background mortality) of 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0. Findings: 20.0% of the population are at risk according to current PHE guidelines, of which; 13.7% were age>70 years and 6.3% aged ≤70 years with ≥1 underlying condition (cardiovascular disease (2.3%), diabetes (2.2%), steroid therapy (1.9%), severe obesity (0.9%), chronic kidney disease (0.6%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, COPD (0.5%). Multimorbidity (co-occurrence of ≥2 conditions in an individual) was common (10.1%). The 1-year mortality in the at-risk population was 4.46%, and age and underlying conditions combine to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions (5.9% in age>70 years, 8.6% for COPD and 13.1% in those with ≥3 or more conditions). In a suppression scenario (at SARS CoV2 rates of 0.001% of the UK population), there would be minimal excess deaths (3 and 7 excess deaths at relative risk, RR, 1.5 and 2.0 respectively). At SARS CoV2 rates of 10% of the UK population (mitigation) the model estimates the numbers of excess deaths as: 13791, 34479 and 68957 (at RR 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0 respectively). At SARS CoV2 rates of 80% in the UK population (do-nothing), the model estimates the number of excess deaths as 110332, 275,830 and 551,659 (at RR 1.2, 1.5 and 2.0) respectively. Interpretation: We provide the public, researchers and policy makers a simple model to estimate the excess mortality over 1 year from COVID-19, based on underlying conditions at different ages. If the relative mortality impact of COVID-19 were to be about 20% (similar magnitude as the established winter vs summer mortality excess), then the excess deaths would be 0 when 1 in 100 000 (suppression), 13791 when 1 in 10 (mitigation) and 110332 when 8 in 10 are infected (do nothing) scenario. However, the relative impact of COVID-19 is unknown. If the emergency were to double the mortality risk, then we estimate 7, 68957 and 551,659 excess deaths in the same scenarios. These results may inform the need for more stringent suppression measures as well as efforts to target those at highest risk for a range of preventive interventions.

negative: Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.

negative: An oncologist perspective on COVID 19: A mysterious cryptic virus

negative: Ecology of Neglected Rodent-Borne American Orthohantaviruses The number of documented American orthohantaviruses has increased significantly over recent decades, but most fundamental research has remained focused on just two of them: Andes virus (ANDV) and Sin Nombre virus (SNV). The majority of American orthohantaviruses are known to cause disease in humans, and most of these pathogenic strains were not described prior to human cases, indicating the importance of understanding all members of the virus clade. In this review, we summarize information on the ecology of under-studied rodent-borne American orthohantaviruses to form general conclusions and highlight important gaps in knowledge. Information regarding the presence and genetic diversity of many orthohantaviruses throughout the distributional range of their hosts is minimal and would significantly benefit from virus isolations to indicate a reservoir role. Additionally, few studies have investigated the mechanisms underlying transmission routes and factors affecting the environmental persistence of orthohantaviruses, limiting our understanding of factors driving prevalence fluctuations. As landscapes continue to change, host ranges and human exposure to orthohantaviruses likely will as well. Research on the ecology of neglected orthohantaviruses is necessary for understanding both current and future threats to human health.

negative: COVID-19: time for paradigm shift in the nexus between local, national and global health

negative: Modeling Disease Spread at Global Mass Gatherings: Data Requirements and Challenges Spread of infectious diseases at global mass gatherings can pose health threats to both the hosting country and the countries where participants originate. The travel patterns at the end of these international events may result in epidemics that can grow to pandemic levels within a short period of time. Computational models are essential tools to estimate, study, and control disease outbreaks at mass gatherings. These models can be integrated in the planning and preparation process of mass gatherings. In this paper, we present a review of the key data requirements and the challenges encountered when modeling infectious diseases epidemics initiated by global mass gatherings. This review can assist epidemic modeling at global mass gatherings providing researchers with insights of the main aspects and possible big data opportunities in this emerging research area.

negative: Do Face Masks Create a False Sense of Security? A COVID-19 Dilemma Face masks have become an emblem of the public response to COVID-19, with many governments mandating their use in public spaces. The logic is that face masks are low cost and might help prevent some transmission. However, from the start, the assumption that face masks are "low cost" was questioned. Early on, there were warnings of the opportunity cost of public use of medical masks given shortages of personal protective equipment for healthcare providers. This led to recommendations for cloth masks and other face coverings, with little evidence of their ability to prevent transmission. However, there may also be a high cost to these recommendations if people rely on face masks in place of other more effective ways to break transmission, such as staying home. We use SafeGraph smart device location data to show that the representative American in states that have face mask mandates spent 20-30 minutes less time at home, and increase visits to a number of commercial locations, following the mandate. Since the reproductive rate of SAR-COV2, the pathogen that causes COVID-19 is hovering right around one, such substitution behavior could be the difference between controlling the epidemic and a resurgence of cases.

negative: Provider Burnout and Fatigue During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons Learned From a High-Volume Intensive Care Unit

negative: Seasonal Fluctuations of Astrovirus, But Not Coronavirus Shedding in Bats Inhabiting Human-Modified Tropical Forests Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are considered a major threat to global health. Most EIDs appear to result from increased contact between wildlife and humans, especially when humans encroach into formerly pristine habitats. Habitat deterioration may also negatively affect the physiology and health of wildlife species, which may eventually lead to a higher susceptibility to infectious agents and/or increased shedding of the pathogens causing EIDs. Bats are known to host viruses closely related to important EIDs. Here, we tested in a paleotropical forest with ongoing logging and fragmentation, whether habitat disturbance influences the occurrence of astro- and coronaviruses in eight bat species. In contrast to our hypothesis, anthropogenic habitat disturbance was not associated with corona- and astrovirus detection rates in fecal samples. However, we found that bats infected with either astro- or coronaviruses were likely to be coinfected with the respective other virus. Additionally, we identified two more risk factors influencing astrovirus shedding. First, the detection rate of astroviruses was higher at the beginning of the rainy compared to the dry season. Second, there was a trend that individuals with a poor body condition had a higher probability of shedding astroviruses in their feces. The identification of risk factors for increased viral shedding that may potentially result in increased interspecies transmission is important to prevent viral spillovers from bats to other animals, including humans.

negative: Intrinsic resistance of feline peritoneal macrophages to coronavirus infection correlates with in vivo virulence. Cats infected with virulent feline coronavirus strains develop feline infectious peritonitis, an invariably fatal, immunologically mediated disease; avirulent strains cause either clinically inapparent infection or mild enteritis. Four virulent coronavirus isolates and five avirulent isolates were assessed by immunofluorescence and virus titration for their ability to infect and replicate in feline peritoneal macrophages in vitro. The avirulent coronaviruses infected fewer macrophages, produced lower virus titers, were less able to sustain viral replication, and spread less efficiently to other susceptible macrophages than the virulent coronaviruses. Thus, the intrinsic resistance of feline macrophages may play a pivotal role in the outcome of coronavirus infection in vivo.

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): An overview of viral structure and host response Abstract Background and aim As a result of its rapid spread in various countries around the world, on March 11, 2020, WHO issued an announcement of the change in coronavirus disease 2019 status from epidemic to pandemic disease. The virus that causes this disease is indicated originating from animals traded in a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 can attack lung cells because there are many conserved receptor entries, namely Angiotensin Converting Enzyme-2. The presence of this virus in host cells will initiate various protective responses leading to pneumonia and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome. This review aimed to provide an overview related to this virus and examine the body's responses and possible therapies. Method We searched PubMed databases for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2, Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus. Full texts were retrieved, analyzed and developed into an easy-to-understand review. Results We provide a complete review related to structure, origin, and how the body responds to this virus infection and explain the possibility of an immune system over-reaction or cytokine storm. We also include an explanation of how this virus creates modes of avoidance to evade immune system attacks. We further explain the therapeutic approaches that can be taken in the treatment and prevention of this viral infection. Conclusion In summary, based on the structural and immune-evasion system of coronavirus, we suggest several approaches to treat the disease.

negative: El síndrome respiratorio agudo grave: primera pandemia del siglo XXI

negative: Reasoning of spike glycoproteins being more vulnerable to mutations among 158 coronavirus proteins from different species In this study, we used the probabilistic models developed by us over the last several years to analyze 158 proteins from coronaviruses in order to determine which protein is more vulnerable to mutations. The results provide three lines of evidence suggesting that the spike glycoprotein is different from the other coronavirus proteins: (1) the spike glycoprotein is more sensitive to mutations, this is the current state of the spike glycoprotein, (2) the spike glycoprotein has undergone more mutations in the past, this is the history of spike glycoprotein, and (3) the spike glycoprotein has a bigger potential towards future mutations, this is the future of spike glycoprotein. Furthermore, this study gives a clue on the species susceptibility regarding different proteins. Figure Predictable and unpredictable portions in coronavirus proteins. The data are presented as median with interquartile range. * the predictable and unpredictable portions in spike glycoprotein group are statistically different from any other protein groups at p<0.05 level, except for hemagglutinin-esterase precursor group. # the predictable and unpredictable portions in spike glycoprotein group are statistically different from hemagglutinin-esterase precursor, membrane protein and nucleocapsid protein groups at p<0.05 level. † the predictable and unpredictable portions in spike glycoprotein group are statistically different from hemagglutinin-esterase precursor, and membrane protein groups at p<0.05 level. Electronic Supplementary Material is available for this article if you access the article at http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00894-004-0210-0.

negative: Metronomic oral vinorelbine and lung cancer therapy during the COVID 19 pandemic: a single-center experience • Intravenous vinorelbine is a standard treatment for advanced NSCLC; • Oral vinorelbine is equally effective as compared to intravenous vinorelbine; • Metronomic oral formulation of vinorelbine is a safe and active treatment for advanced NSCLC; • No established treatment is a “gold standard” during COVID19 era; • Metronomic oral vinorelbine permitted to carry on active treatment during COVID Emergency; • Metronomic oral vinorelbine reduce side effects and hospital visits to lung cancer patients; • Management of lung cancer patients may be improved by metronomic oral vinorelbine.

negative: Deep Learning Assisted Memetic Algorithm for Shortest Route Problems Finding the shortest route between a pair of origin and destination is known to be a crucial and challenging task in intelligent transportation systems. Current methods assume fixed travel time between any pairs, thus the efficiency of these approaches is limited because the travel time in reality can dynamically change due to factors including the weather conditions, the traffic conditions, the time of the day and the day of the week, etc. To address this dynamic situation, we propose a novel two-stage approach to find the shortest route. Firstly deep learning is utilised to predict the travel time between a pair of origin and destination. Weather conditions are added into the input data to increase the accuracy of travel time predicition. Secondly, a customised Memetic Algorithm is developed to find shortest route using the predicted travel time. The proposed memetic algorithm uses genetic algorithm for exploration and local search for exploiting the current search space around a given solution. The effectiveness of the proposed two-stage method is evaluated based on the New York City taxi benchmark dataset. The obtained results demonstrate that the proposed method is highly effective compared with state-of-the-art methods.

negative: Rhinovirus-Induced Exacerbations of Asthma and COPD Over the past two decades, increasing evidence has shown that, in patients with chronic airways disease, viral infection is the most common cause of exacerbation. This review will examine the evidence for viral-induced exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive lung disease and the potential mechanisms by which viruses cause exacerbations. Attention will be focused on rhinovirus, the most common cause of respiratory exacerbations. Exacerbations due to rhinovirus, which infects relatively few cells in the airway and does not cause the cytotoxicity of other viruses such as influenza or respiratory syncytial virus, are particularly poorly understood. While the innate immune response likely plays a role in rhinovirus-induced exacerbations, its precise role, either adaptive or maladaptive, is debated. Because current treatment strategies are only partially effective, further research examining the cellular and molecular mechanisms underlying viral-induced exacerbations of chronic airways diseases is warranted.

negative: Chapter 2 Syndromic surveillance using web data: a systematic review Abstract During the recent years, a lot of debate is taken place about the evolution of Smart Healthcare systems. Particularly, how these systems can help people improve human conditions of health, by taking advantages of the new Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), regarding early prediction and efficient treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide a systematic review of the current literature available that focuses on information systems on syndromic surveillance using web data. All published items concern articles, books, reviews, reports, conference announcements, and dissertations. We used a variation of PRISMA Statements methodology to conduct a systematic review. The review identifies the relevant published papers from the year 2004 to 2018, systematically includes and explores them to extract similarities, gaps, and conclusions on the research that has been done so far. The results presented concern the year, the examined disease, the web data source, the geographic location/country, and the data analysis method used. The results show that influenza is the most examined infectious disease. The internet tools most used are Twitter and Google. Regarding the geographical areas explored in the published papers, the most examined country is the United States, since many scientists come from this country. There is a significant growth of articles since 2009. There are also various statistical methods used to correlate the data retrieved from the internet to the data from national authorities. The conclusion of all researches is that the Web can be a useful tool for the detection of serious epidemics and for a creation of a syndromic surveillance system using the Web, since we can predict epidemics from web data before they are officially detected in population. With the advance of ICT, Smart Healthcare can benefit from the monitoring of epidemics and the early prediction of such a system, improving national or international health strategies and policy decision. This can be achieved through the provision of new technology tools to enhance health monitoring systems toward the new innovations of Smart Health or eHealth, even with the emerging technologies of Internet of Things. The challenges and impacts of an electronic system based on internet data include the social, medical, and technological disciplines. These can be further extended to Smart Healthcare, as the data streaming can provide with real-time information, awareness on epidemics and alerts for both patients or medical scientists. Finally, these new systems can help improve the standards of human life.

negative: Structural basis of SARS-CoV-2 3CLpro and anti-COVID-19 drug discovery from medicinal plants † Abstract The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 in December 2019 raised global health concerns. The viral 3-chymotrypsin-like cysteine protease (3CLpro) enzyme controls coronavirus replication and is essential for its life cycle. 3CLpro is a proven drug discovery target in the case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Recent studies revealed that the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 is very similar to that of SARS-CoV. Therefore, herein, we analysed the 3CLpro sequence, constructed its 3D homology model, and screened it against a medicinal plant library containing 32,297 potential anti-viral phytochemicals/traditional Chinese medicinal compounds. Our analyses revealed that the top nine hits might serve as potential anti- SARS-CoV-2 lead molecules for further optimisation and drug development process to combat COVID-19.

negative: Prediction of New Coronavirus Infection Based on a Modified SEIR Model BACKGROUND The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection in Wuhan City, Hubei Province in December 2019, poses a huge threat to China and even global public health security. Respiratory droplets and contact transmission are the main routes of transmission of new coronaviruses. Compared with SARS and Ebola viruses, new coronavirus infections are infectious during the incubation period. Traditional SEIR (susceptibility-exposure-infection-Removal) There are some differences in conditions for the prediction of the epidemic trend of new coronavirus infection. The outbreak of the new coronavirus infection coincided with the Spring Festival before and after the Chinese Spring Festival.It is necessary to make appropriate optimization and amendments to the traditional model to meet the actual evolution of the epidemic situation. METHODS The traditional SEIR model assumes that the virus-infected person is not infectious during the incubation period and that the infected person did not take isolation measures during the illness. The transmission of the new coronavirus no longer meets the basic assumptions of the classical kinetic system. Therefore, this article first establishes a modified SEIR model. Predict and analyze the changing trend of the epidemic situation, then estimate the parameters involved in the infection dynamics model, and then use Matlab to simulate the established dynamic equations based on public data and analyze the results. Recommendations for universal prevention and control of infectious diseases. RESULTS The first case of new coronavirus infection was confirmed in Wuhan on December 8, 2019. When Wuhan City took no action, assuming the average daily number of contacts per infected person k = 5, the number of infected persons will reach about 2,384,803 people; If wuhan adopts the measures of sealing the city on January 22, 2020, under the premise of k=2, the number of infected people decreases by 19,773 compared with that on January 23, and there is no significant change in the time when the number of infected people reaches the peak. Under the premise of k = 1, the number of infected persons was reduced by 14,330 compared with the closure on January 23, and the time to reach the peak of the number of infected persons was reduced by 2 days. If Wuhan City is closed for one day, the number of infected persons will increase from 106,145 to 130,626 under the premise of k = 2; the number of infected persons will increase from 74,369 to 92,010 under the premise of k = 1. CONCLUSIONS Comparing the number of confirmed diagnoses actually notified by the department with the number of infected people obtained from the simulation of the model, it can be seen that the city closure measures adopted by the Wuhan Municipal Government on January 23 and the first-level response measures adopted by the country are effective for the epidemic Prevention and control play a vital role. Wearing a mask when going out and avoiding close contact with people can effectively reduce the infection rate.

negative: Disease ecology and the global emergence of zoonotic pathogens The incidence and frequency of epidemic transmission of zoonotic diseases, both known and newly recognized, has increased dramatically in the past 30 years. It is thought that this dramatic disease emergence is primarily the result of the social, demographic, and environmental transformation that has occurred globally since World War II. However, the causal linkages have not been elucidated. Investigating emerging zoonotic pathogens as an ecological phenomenon can provide significant insights as to why some of these pathogens have jumped species and caused major epidemics in humans. A review of concepts and theory from biological ecology and of causal factors in disease emergence previously described suggests a general model of global zoonotic disease emergence. The model links demographic and societal factors to land use and land cover change whose associated ecological factors help explain disease emergence. The scale and magnitude of these changes are more significant than those associated with climate change, the effects of which are largely not yet understood. Unfortunately, the complex character and non-linear behavior of the human-natural systems in which host-pathogen systems are embedded makes specific incidences of disease emergence or epidemics inherently difficult to predict. Employing a complex systems analytical approach, however, may show how a few key ecological variables and system properties, including the adaptive capacity of institutions, explains the emergence of infectious diseases and how an integrated, multi-level approach to zoonotic disease control can reduce risk.

negative: Large-scale evolutionary surveillance of the 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus using resequencing arrays In April 2009, a new influenza A (H1N1 2009) virus emerged that rapidly spread around the world. While current variants of this virus have caused widespread disease, particularly in vulnerable groups, there remains the possibility that future variants may cause increased virulence, drug resistance or vaccine escape. Early detection of these virus variants may offer the chance for increased containment and potentially prevention of the virus spread. We have developed and field-tested a resequencing kit that is capable of interrogating all eight segments of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus genome and its variants, with added focus on critical regions such as drug-binding sites, structural components and mutation hotspots. The accompanying base-calling software (EvolSTAR) introduces novel methods that utilize neighbourhood hybridization intensity profiles and substitution bias of probes on the microarray for mutation confirmation and recovery of ambiguous base queries. Our results demonstrate that EvolSTAR is highly accurate and has a much improved call rate. The high throughput and short turn-around time from sample to sequence and analysis results (30 h for 24 samples) makes this kit an efficient large-scale evolutionary biosurveillance tool.

negative: A review on microbial contaminants in stormwater runoff and outfalls: Potential health risks and mitigation strategies Abstract Demands on global water supplies are increasing in response to the need to provide more food, water, and energy for a rapidly growing population. These water stressors are exacerbated by climate change, as well as the growth and urbanisation of industry and commerce. Consequently, urban water authorities around the globe are exploring alternative water sources to meet ever-increasing demands. These alternative sources are primarily treated sewage, stormwater, and groundwater. Stormwater including roof-harvested rainwater has been considered as an alternative water source for both potable and non-potable uses. One of the most significant issues concerning alternative water reuse is the public health risk associated with chemical and microbial contaminants. Several studies to date have quantified fecal indicators and pathogens in stormwater. Microbial source tracking (MST) approaches have also been used to determine the sources of fecal contamination in stormwater and receiving waters. This review paper summarizes occurrence and concentrations of fecal indicators, pathogens, and MST marker genes in urban stormwater. A section of the review highlights the removal of fecal indicators and pathogens through water sensitive urban design (WSUD) or Best Management Practices (BMPs). We also discuss approaches for assessing and mitigating health risks associated with stormwater, including a summary of existing quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models for potable and non-potable reuse of stormwater. Finally, the most critical research gaps are identified for formulating risk management strategies.

negative: Outdoor environments and human pathogens in air Are pathogens in outdoor air a health issue at present or will they become a problem in the future? A working group called AirPath - Outdoor Environments and Human Pathogens in Air was set up in 2007 at University College London, UK with the aim of opening new discussion and creating a research network to investigate the science and impacts of outdoor pathogens. Our objective in this paper is to review and discuss the following areas: What is the source of human pathogens in outdoor air? What current, developing and future techniques do we need? Can we identify at-risk groups in relation to their activities and environments? How do we prepare for the anticipated challenges of environmental change and new and emerging diseases? And how can we control for and prevent pathogens in outdoor environments? We think that this work can benefit the wider research community and policy makers by providing a concise overview of various research aspects and considerations which may be important to their work.

negative: Medical mask versus cotton mask for preventing respiratory droplet transmission in micro environments Abstract The objective of this study was to investigate whether cotton mask worn by respiratory infection person could suppress respiratory droplet levels compared to medical mask. We recruited adult volunteers with confirmed influenza and suspected cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to wear medical masks and self-designed triple-layer cotton masks in a regular bedroom and a car with air conditioning. Four 1-hour repeated measurements (two measurements for bedroom the others for car) of particles with a size range of 20–1000 nm measured by number concentrations (NC0.02–1), temperature and relatively humidity, and cough/sneeze counts per hour were conducted for each volunteer. The paired t-tests were used for within-group comparisons in a bedroom and in a car. The results showed that there was no significant difference in NC0.02–1 or cough/sneeze counts between volunteers with medical masks and cotton masks in a bedroom or a car. We concluded that the cotton mask could be a potential substitute for medical mask for respiratory infection person in microenvironment with air conditioning. Healthy people may daily use cotton mask in the community since cotton mask is washable and reusable.

negative: Circulating influenza virus, climatic factors, and acute myocardial infarction: a time series study in England and Wales and Hong Kong. BACKGROUND Previous studies identifying associations between influenza and acute cardiac events may have been confounded by climatic factors. Differing seasonal patterns of influenza activity in Hong Kong and England and Wales provide a natural experiment to examine associations with myocardial infarction (MI) independent of cold weather effects. METHODS Weekly clinical and laboratory influenza surveillance data, environmental temperature and humidity data, and counts of MI-associated hospitalizations and deaths were obtained for England and Wales and for Hong Kong for the period 1998-2008. We used Poisson regression models that included environmental and seasonal variables to investigate the relationship between influenza and MI. RESULTS There were ≥1.2 million MI-associated hospitalizations and 410,204 MI-associated deaths in England and Wales, with a marked peak in the winter season. In Hong Kong, the incidence of MI, on the basis of 65,108 hospitalizations and 18,780 deaths, had a large winter and smaller summer peak, mirroring patterns of influenza activity. There was strong evidence for a link between influenza and MI both in England and Wales, where 3.1%-3.4% of MI-associated deaths (P < .001) and 0.7%-1.2% of MI-associated hospitalizations (P < .001) were attributable to influenza, and in Hong Kong, where the corresponding figures were 3.9%-5.6% (P = .018) and 3.0%-3.3% (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS Influenza was associated with an increase in MI-associated deaths and hospitalizations in 2 contrasting settings.

negative: Redesigning a large school-based clinical trial in response to changes in community practice Background Asthma exacerbations are seasonal with the greatest risk in elementary-age students occurring shortly after returning to school following summer break. Recent research suggests that this seasonality in children is primarily related to viral respiratory tract infections. Regular hand washing is the most effective method to prevent the spread of viral respiratory infections; unfortunately, achieving hand washing recommendations in schools is difficult. Therefore, we designed a study to evaluate the effect of hand sanitizer use in elementary schools on exacerbations among children with asthma. Purpose To describe the process of redesigning the trial in response to changes in the safety profile of the hand sanitizer as well as changes in hand hygiene practice in the schools. Methods The original trial was a randomized, longitudinal, subject-blinded, placebo-controlled, community-based crossover trial. The primary aim was to evaluate the incremental effectiveness of hand sanitizer use in addition to usual hand hygiene practices to decrease asthma exacerbations in elementary-age children. Three events occurred that required major modifications to the original study protocol: (1) safety concerns arose regarding the hand sanitizer’s active ingredient; (2) no substitute placebo hand sanitizer was available; and (3) community preferences changed regarding hand hygiene practices in the schools. Results The revised protocol is a randomized, longitudinal, community-based crossover trial. The primary aim is to evaluate the incremental effectiveness of a two-step hand hygiene process (hand hygiene education plus institutionally provided alcohol-based hand sanitizer) versus usual care to decrease asthma exacerbations. Enrollment was completed in May 2009 with 527 students from 30 schools. The intervention began in August 2009 and will continue through May 2011. Study results should be available at the end of 2011. Limitations The changed design does not allow us to directly measure the effectiveness of hand sanitizer use as a supplement to traditional hand washing practices. Conclusions The need to balance a rigorous study design with one that is acceptable to the community requires investigators to be actively involved with community collaborators and able to adapt study protocols to fit changing community practices.

negative: Events postponed or cancelled because of the coronavirus outbreak A number of events that cover developments in sealing technology and related products have been postponed, or even cancelled, in response to the rapidly changing circumstances associated with the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

negative: Understanding SARS-CoV-2: Genetic Diversity, Transmission and Cure in Human As the SARS-CoV-2 virus race around the world across the different population, there needs to be a consolidated effort to understand the divergence of demographically distributed strains. The emerging trends in SARS-CoV-2 genome data show specific mutation and genetic diversity, which could provide the basis to develop a cocktail of vaccine and may also be used to develop the region-specific diagnostic tool, thus decreasing the chances of testing failures in fields. Since the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is subject to the extent of human interaction, the insights from the correlation of genetic diversity with epidemiological parameter would give paramount information to tackle this transmission. Previously, studies have also correlated the epidemiological data with gut microbiome and its role in immunomodulation for maintaining health status, and such information could be generated from recovered individuals from different demographic regions. It will help in designing a probiotic-based diet for modulation of the gut microbiome, and that could be another plausible prophylactic treatment option. The genomics data suggest that a specific variant of SARS-CoV-2 gets enriched with the specific demographic region. Overall, demographic data suggests that host influences mutation and expression of the virus. Hence, the experiences from the clinical intervention for that region should be considered in control and treatment strategies.

negative: Removal of atmospheric CO2 by rock weathering holds promise for mitigating climate change.

negative: Molecular Interactions in the Assembly of Coronaviruses Publisher Summary This chapter describes the interactions between the different structural components of the viruses and discusses their relevance for the process of virion formation. Two key factors determine the efficiency of the assembly process: intracellular transport and molecular interactions. Many viruses have evolved elaborate strategies to ensure the swift and accurate delivery of the virion components to the cellular compartment(s) where they must meet and form (sub) structures. Assembly of viruses starts in the nucleus by the encapsidation of viral DNA, using cytoplasmically synthesized capsid proteins; nucleocapsids then migrate to the cytosol, by budding at the inner nuclear membrane followed by deenvelopment, to pick up the tegument proteins.

negative: Global rheumatology in the time of COVID-19

negative: Viral respiratory disease in pregnancy. PURPOSE OF REVIEW Recently there has been an increased concern over viral respiratory infections and their potential for a pandemic. This concern makes it important to review the most current guidelines for the management of viral respiratory diseases in pregnancy. RECENT FINDINGS The topics covered are influenza, avian influenza, and severe acute respiratory syndrome. SUMMARY Pregnant women have an increased susceptibility to viral respiratory diseases. The most common respiratory virus to infect pregnant women is influenza. All women who intend to become pregnant or are pregnant should receive the influenza vaccine. If a pregnant woman develops influenza she should be treated with supportive care. Antiviral medications should be reserved for cases where the benefits outweigh the risks. Avian influenza (H5N1) is a new emerging virus usually contracted from direct contact with diseased birds. There is no commercially available vaccine at this time to prevent infection. Pregnant women should be treated aggressively with supportive care and antiviral medications, as the significant risk of maternal mortality outweighs the potential fetal risks. Pregnant women diagnosed clinically with severe acute respiratory syndrome should be treated empirically, as a serologic diagnosis can take weeks to confirm. The treatment of pregnant women with severe acute respiratory syndrome should be without ribavirin.

negative: Phylogenetic Analysis and Structural Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Reveals an Evolutionary Distinct and Proteolytically Sensitive Activation Loop The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) originally arose as part of a major outbreak of respiratory disease centered on Hubei province, China. It is now a global pandemic and is a major public health concern. Taxonomically, SARS-CoV-2 was shown to be a Betacoronavirus (lineage B) closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-related bat coronaviruses, and it has been reported to share a common receptor with SARS-CoV (ACE-2). Subsequently, betacoronaviruses from pangolins were identified as close relatives to SARS-CoV-2. Here, we perform structural modeling of the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein. Our data provide support for the similar receptor utilization between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, despite a relatively low amino acid similarity in the receptor binding module. Compared to SARS-CoV and all other coronaviruses in Betacoronavirus lineage B, we identify an extended structural loop containing basic amino acids at the interface of the receptor binding (S1) and fusion (S2) domains. We suggest this loop confers fusion activation and entry properties more in line with betacoronaviruses in lineages A and C, and be a key component in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 with this structural loop affecting virus stability and transmission.

negative: Psychological responses, behavioral changes and public perceptions during the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in China: a population based cross-sectional survey Objective: To investigate psychological and behavioral responses to the threat of SARS-CoV-2 infections and their associations with public perceptions in China Design: Cross sectional population-based telephone survey via random digital dialing between 1 and 10 February, 2020 Setting: Wuhan (the epicentre and quarantined city), and Shanghai (a typical major city with close transportation link with Wuhan) Participants: Random sample of 510 residents in Wuhan and 501 residents in Shanghai aged above 18 Main outcome measures: Anxiety (measured by the 7-item generalized anxiety disorder [GAD-7] scale), recommended and avoidance behaviors (engaged in all six behaviors such as increasing surface cleaning and reducing going out). Results: The prevalence rates of moderate or severe anxiety (score ≥10 on GAD-7) were 32.7% (n=167) among Wuhan participants and 20.4% (n=102) among Shanghai participants. 78.6% (n=401) of Wuhan participants and 63.9% (n=320) of Shanghai participants had carried out all six precautionary behaviors. For both measures, Wuhan participants were more responsive to the outbreak (p<0.001). Controlling for personal characteristics, logistic regression results suggested that risks of moderate or severe anxiety were positively associated with perceived susceptibility (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3-1.8) and severity of the disease (1.6, 1.4-1.9) and confusion about information reliability (1.6, 1.5-1.9). Having confidence in taking measures to protect oneself against the disease was associated with a lower risk (0.6, 0.5-0.7). The strongest predictor of behavioral change was perceived severity (1.2, 1.1-1.4), followed by confusion about information reliability (1.1, 1.0-1.3). Conclusions: Psychological and behavioral responses to COVID-19 have been dramatic during the rising phase of the outbreak. Our results support efforts for timely dissemination of accurate and reliable information to address the high anxiety level.

negative: Timely mental health care for the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak is urgently needed

negative: Changes in epithelial secretory cells and potentiation of neurogenic inflammation in the trachea of rats with respiratory tract infections In rats respiratory tract infections due to Sendai virus and coronavirus usually are transient, but they can have long-lasting consequences when accompanied by Mycoplasma pulmonis infections. Morphological alterations in the tracheal epithelium and a potentiation of the inflammatory response evoked by sensory nerve stimulation (“neurogenic inflammation”) are evident nine weeks after the infections begin, but the extent to which these changes are present at earlier times is not known. In the present study we characterized these abnormalities in the epithelium and determined the extent to which they are present 3 and 6 weeks after the infections begin. We also determined the magnitude of the potentiation of neurogenic inflammation at these times, whether the potentiation can be reversed by glucocorticoids, and whether a proliferation of blood vessels contributes to the abnormally large amount of plasma extravasation associated with this potentiation. To this end, we studied Long-Evans rats that acquired these viral and mycoplasmal infections from other rats. We found that the tracheal epithelium of the infected rats had ten times as many Alcian blue-PAS positive mucous cells as did that of pathogen-free rats; but it contained none of the serous cells typical of pathogen-free rats, so the total number of secretory cells was not increased. In addition, the epithelium of the infected rats had three times the number of ciliated cells and had only a third of the number of globule leukocytes. In response to an injection of capsaicin (150 μg/kg i.v.), the tracheas of the infected rats developed an abnormally large amount of extravasation of two tracers Evans blue dye and Monastral blue pigment, and had an abnormally large number of Monastral blue-labeled venules, particularly in regions of mucosa overlying the cartilaginous rings. This abnormally large amount of extravasation was blocked by dexamethasone (1 mg/day i.p. for 5 days). We conclude that M. pulmonis infections, exacerbated at the outset by viral infections, result within three weeks in the transformation of epithelial serous cells into mucous cells, the proliferation of ciliated cells, and the depletion of globule leukocytes. They also cause a proliferation of mediator-sensitive blood vessels in the airway mucosa, which is likely to contribute to the potentiation of neurogenic inflammation that accompanies these infections.

negative: Why does the coronavirus spread so easily between people?

negative: Sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome reveals features important for vaccine design As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is rapidly progressing, the need for the development of an effective vaccine is critical. A promising approach for vaccine development is to generate, through codon pair deoptimization, an attenuated virus. This approach carries the advantage that it only requires limited knowledge specific to the virus in question, other than its genome sequence. Therefore, it is well suited for emerging viruses for which we may not have extensive data. We performed comprehensive in silico analyses of several features of SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence (e.g., codon usage, codon pair usage, dinucleotide/junction dinucleotide usage, RNA structure around the frameshift region) in comparison with other members of the coronaviridae family of viruses, the overall human genome, and the transcriptome of specific human tissues such as lung, which are primarily targeted by the virus. Our analysis identified the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins as promising targets for deoptimization and suggests a roadmap for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine development, which can be generalizable to other viruses.

negative: Assessing the plausibility of subcritical transmission of 2019-nCoV in the United States Abstract: The 2019-nCoV outbreak has raised concern of global spread. While person-to-person transmission within the Wuhan district has led to a large outbreak, the transmission potential outside of the region remains unclear. Here we present a simple approach for determining whether the upper limit of the confidence interval for the reproduction number exceeds one for transmission in the United States, which would allow endemic transmission. As of February 7, 2020, the number of cases in the United states support subcritical transmission, rather than ongoing transmission. However, this conclusion can change if pre-symptomatic cases resulting from human-to-human transmission have not yet been identified.

negative: Coronavirus Endoribonuclease Activity in Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Suppresses Type I and Type III Interferon Responses Identifying viral antagonists of innate immunity and determining if they contribute to pathogenesis are critical for developing effective strategies to control emerging viruses. Previously, we reported that an endoribonuclease (EndoU) encoded by murine coronavirus plays a pivotal role in evasion of host innate immune defenses in macrophages. Here, we asked if the EndoU activity of porcine epidemic diarrhea coronavirus (PEDV), which causes acute diarrhea in swine, plays a role in antagonizing the innate response in porcine epithelial cells and macrophages, the sites of viral replication. We constructed an infectious clone of PEDV-Colorado strain (icPEDV-wt) and an EndoU-mutant PEDV (icPEDV-EnUmt) by changing the codon for a catalytic histidine residue of EndoU to alanine (His226Ala). We found that both icPEDV-wt and icPEDV-EnUmt propagated efficiently in interferon (IFN)-deficient Vero cells. In contrast, the propagation of icPEDV-EnUmt was impaired in porcine epithelial cells (LLC-PK1), where we detected an early and robust transcriptional activation of type I and type III IFNs. Infection of piglets with the parental Colorado strain, icPEDV-wt, or icPEDV-EnUmt revealed that all viruses replicated in the gut and induced diarrhea; however, there was reduced viral shedding and mortality in the icPEDV-EnUmt-infected animals. These results demonstrate that EndoU activity is not required for PEDV replication in immortalized, IFN-deficient Vero cells, but is important for suppressing the IFN response in epithelial cells and macrophages, which facilitates replication, shedding, and pathogenesis in vivo. We conclude that PEDV EndoU activity is a key virulence factor that suppresses both type I and type III IFN responses. IMPORTANCE Coronaviruses (CoVs) can emerge from an animal reservoir into a naive host species to cause pandemic respiratory or gastrointestinal diseases with significant mortality in humans or domestic animals. Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV), an alphacoronavirus (alpha-CoV), infects gut epithelial cells and macrophages, inducing diarrhea and resulting in high mortality in piglets. How PEDV suppresses the innate immune response was unknown. We found that mutating a viral endoribonuclease, EndoU, results in a virus that activates both the type I interferon response and the type III interferon response in macrophages and epithelial cells. This activation of interferon resulted in limited viral replication in epithelial cell cultures and was associated with reduced virus shedding and mortality in piglets. This study reveals a role for EndoU activity as a virulence factor in PEDV infection and provides an approach for generating live-attenuated vaccine candidates for emerging coronaviruses.

negative: Coronavirus Perceptions And Economic Anxiety We provide one of the first systematic assessments of the development and determinants of economic anxiety at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. Using a global dataset on internet searches and two representative surveys from the US, we document a substantial increase in economic anxiety during and after the arrival of the coronavirus. We also document a large dispersion in beliefs about the pandemic risk factors of the coronavirus, and demonstrate that these beliefs causally affect individuals' economic anxieties. Finally, we show that individuals' mental models of infectious disease spread understate non-linear growth and shape the extent of economic anxiety.

negative: Review on Machine and Deep Learning Models for the Detection and Prediction of Coronavirus The novel Coronavirus disease has increased rapidly in the Wuhan city of China in December 2019. This fatal virus has spread across the whole world like a fire in different stages and affecting millions of population and thousands of deaths worldwide. Therefore, it is essential to classify the infected people, so that they can take the precaution in the earlier stages. Also, due to the increasing cases spread of Coronavirus, there are only limited numbers of polymerase change reaction kits available in the hospitals for testing Coronavirus patients. That why it is extremely important to develop artificial intelligence-based automatic diagnostic tools to classify the Coronavirus outbreak. The objective of this paper is to know the novel disease epidemiology, major prevention from spreading of Coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and to assess the machine and deep learning-based architectures performance that is proposed in the present year for classification of Coronavirus images such as, X-Ray and computed tomography. Specifically, advanced deep learning-based algorithms known as the Convolutional neural network, which plays a great effect on extracting highly essential features, mostly in terms of medical images. This technique, with using CT and X-Ray image scans, has been adopted in most of the recently published articles on the Coronavirus with remarkable results. Furthermore, according to this paper, this can be noted and said that deep learning technology has potential clinical applications.

negative: Severe weather warnings predict fracture epidemics Abstract Winter epidemics of fractures have been described that greatly exceed normal seasonal variations and overwhelm resources. We investigated the relationship between severe weather warnings, the frequency of fractures, and fracture related workload. There was a significant increase in fractures with cold and inclement weather, mostly low-energy fractures treated with day-case surgery or in fracture clinics. The number of patients treated as inpatients for fractures did not increase. Hip fractures were not associated with weather. Severe weather warnings for icy roads were predictive of fracture epidemics (p <0.01) with an associated 40% (95% confidence limits 20–52%) increase in fractures. Meteorological Office issued severe weather warnings can provide a trigger to plan for an increased workload of low-energy fractures, with opportunities for anticipatory public health measures.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 mortality in blacks and temperature-sensitivity to an angiotensin-2 receptor blocker Tropical climates provoke adaptations in skin pigmentation and in mechanisms controlling the volume, salt-content and pressure of body fluids. For many whose distant ancestors moved to temperate climes, these adaptations proved harmful: pigmentation decreased by natural selection and susceptibility to hypertension emerged. Now an added risk is lung inflammation from coronavirus that may be furthered by innate immune differences. Hypertension and coronavirus have in common angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which decreases blood pressure and mediates virus entry. In keeping with less detailed studies, a long-term case-report shows that decreased blood pressure induced by blocking a primary angiotensin receptor is supplemented, above critical blocker dosage, by a further temperature-dependent fall, likely mediated by ACE2 and secondary angiotensin receptors. Temperature-dependence suggests a linkage with tropical heritage and an influence of blockers on the progress of coronavirus infections. Positive therapeutic results should result from negation of host pro-inflammatory effects mediated by the primary angiotensin receptor and concomitant promotion of countervailing anti-inflammatory effects mediated by ACE2 through other receptors. These effects may involve components of the lectin complement pathway. Black vulnerability, more likely based on physiological than on socioeconomic differences, provides an important clue that may guide treatments.

negative: Preliminary Identification of Potential Vaccine Targets for the COVID-19 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Based on SARS-CoV Immunological Studies The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is an imminent need to better understand this new virus and to develop ways to control its spread. In this study, we sought to gain insights for vaccine design against SARS-CoV-2 by considering the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which caused the outbreak in 2003, and leveraging existing immunological studies of SARS-CoV. By screening the experimentally-determined SARS-CoV-derived B cell and T cell epitopes in the immunogenic structural proteins of SARS-CoV, we identified a set of B cell and T cell epitopes derived from the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins that map identically to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. As no mutation has been observed in these identified epitopes among the 120 available SARS-CoV-2 sequences (as of 21 February 2020), immune targeting of these epitopes may potentially offer protection against this novel virus. For the T cell epitopes, we performed a population coverage analysis of the associated MHC alleles and proposed a set of epitopes that is estimated to provide broad coverage globally, as well as in China. Our findings provide a screened set of epitopes that can help guide experimental efforts towards the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

negative: Design of Wide-Spectrum Inhibitors Targeting Coronavirus Main Proteases The genus Coronavirus contains about 25 species of coronaviruses (CoVs), which are important pathogens causing highly prevalent diseases and often severe or fatal in humans and animals. No licensed specific drugs are available to prevent their infection. Different host receptors for cellular entry, poorly conserved structural proteins (antigens), and the high mutation and recombination rates of CoVs pose a significant problem in the development of wide-spectrum anti-CoV drugs and vaccines. CoV main proteases (M(pro)s), which are key enzymes in viral gene expression and replication, were revealed to share a highly conservative substrate-recognition pocket by comparison of four crystal structures and a homology model representing all three genetic clusters of the genus Coronavirus. This conclusion was further supported by enzyme activity assays. Mechanism-based irreversible inhibitors were designed, based on this conserved structural region, and a uniform inhibition mechanism was elucidated from the structures of M(pro)-inhibitor complexes from severe acute respiratory syndrome-CoV and porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus. A structure-assisted optimization program has yielded compounds with fast in vitro inactivation of multiple CoV M(pro)s, potent antiviral activity, and extremely low cellular toxicity in cell-based assays. Further modification could rapidly lead to the discovery of a single agent with clinical potential against existing and possible future emerging CoV-related diseases.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 is sensitive to type I interferon pretreatment. SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus (CoV), has recently emerged causing an ongoing outbreak of viral pneumonia around the world. While genetically distinct from the original SARS-CoV, both group 2B CoVs share similar genome organization and origins to coronaviruses harbored in bats. Importantly, initial guidance has used insights from SARS-CoV infection to inform treatment and public health strategies. In this report, we evaluate type-I Interferon (IFN-I) sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 relative to the original SARS-CoV. Our results indicate that while SARS-CoV-2 maintains similar viral replication kinetics to SARS-CoV in Vero cell, the novel CoV is much more sensitive to IFN-I pretreatment. Examining transcriptional factor activation and interferon stimulated gene (ISG) induction, SARS-CoV-2 in the context of type I IFN induces phosphorylation of STAT1 and increased ISG proteins. In contrast, the original SARS-CoV has no evidence for STAT1 phosphorylation or ISG protein increases even in the presence of type I IFN pretreatment. Next, we examined IFN competent Calu3 2B4 cells finding SARS-CoV-2 had reduced viral replication relative to SARS-CoV and induced STAT1 phosphorylation late during infection. Finally, we examined homology between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in viral proteins shown to be interferon antagonist. The absence of open reading frame (ORF) 3b and significant changes to ORF6 suggest the two key IFN antagonists may not maintain equivalent function in SARS-CoV-2. Together, the results identify key differences in susceptibility to the IFN-I response between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2. that could help inform disease progression, treatment options, and animal model development.

negative: Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with 2019-nCoV As the number of novel coronavirus cases grows both inside and outside of China, public health authorities require evidence on the effectiveness of control measures such as thermal screening of arrivals at airports. We evaluated the effectiveness of exit and entry screening for 2019-nCoV infection. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46.5% (95%CI: 35.9 to 57.7) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on the incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and the proportion of cases which are asymptomatic. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travellers. We developed an online tool so that results can be updated as new information becomes available.

negative: COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines with implications for public health risk The lockdown response to COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented reduction in global economic activity. We test the hypothesis that this has reduced tropospheric and ground-level air pollution concentrations using satellite data and a network of >10,000 air quality stations. After accounting for the effects of meteorological variability, we find remarkable declines in ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2: -29 % with 95% confidence interval -44% to -13%), ozone (O3: -11%; -20% to -2%) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5: -9%; -28% to 10%) during the first two weeks of lockdown (n = 27 countries). These results are largely mirrored by satellite measures of the troposphere although long-distance transport of PM2.5 resulted in more heterogeneous changes relative to NO2. Pollutant anomalies were related to short-term health outcomes using empirical exposure-response functions. We estimate that there was a net total of 7400 (340 to 14600) premature deaths and 6600 (4900 to 7900) pediatric asthma cases avoided during two weeks post-lockdown. In China and India alone, the PM2.5-related avoided premature mortality was 1400 (1100 to 1700) and 5300 (1000 to 11700), respectively. Assuming that the lockdown-induced deviations in pollutant concentrations are maintained for the duration of 2020, we estimate 0.78 (0.09 to 1.5) million premature deaths and 1.6 (0.8 to 2) million pediatric asthma cases could be avoided globally. While the state of global lockdown is not sustainable, these findings illustrate the potential health benefits gained from reducing 'business as usual' air pollutant emissions from economic activities.

negative: Mitigating the air pollution effect? The remarkable decline in the pollution-mortality relationship in Hong Kong Abstract Using transboundary pollution from mainland China as an instrument, we show that air pollution leads to higher cardio-respiratory mortality in Hong Kong. However, the air pollution effect has dramatically decreased over the past two decades: before 2003, a 10-unit increase in the Air Pollution Index could lead to a 3.1% increase in monthly cardio-respiratory mortality, but this effect has declined to 0.5% using recent data and is no longer statistically significant. Exploratory analyses suggest that a well-functioning medical system and immediate access to emergency services can help mitigate the contemporaneous effects of pollution on mortality.

negative: Differential Diagnosis of Common Acute Toxicologic Versus Nontoxicologic Illness This table outlines common toxicologic versus nontoxicologic rule outs based on clinical abnormalities seen in an acutely ill animal. The purpose is to provide an initial guideline for considering toxicologic versus nontoxicologic rule outs when a patient is presented to a practicing veterinarian. Major clinical abnormalities followed by common toxicologic rule outs and non-toxicologic rule outs have been listed so that practicing veterinarians can narrow down an etiology quickly. Based on history, physical examination findings, and blood work changes, once a reasonable etiology has been narrowed down or established, the reader is encouraged to review a more detailed discussion on management of the particular poisoning or disease listed in this or other references.

negative: First two months of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) epidemic in China: real-time surveillance and evaluation with a second derivative model BACKGROUND: Similar to outbreaks of many other infectious diseases, success in controlling the novel 2019 coronavirus infection requires a timely and accurate monitoring of the epidemic, particularly during its early period with rather limited data while the need for information increases explosively. METHODS: In this study, we used a second derivative model to characterize the coronavirus epidemic in China with cumulatively diagnosed cases during the first 2 months. The analysis was further enhanced by an exponential model with a close-population assumption. This model was built with the data and used to assess the detection rate during the study period, considering the differences between the true infections, detectable and detected cases. RESULTS: Results from the second derivative modeling suggest the coronavirus epidemic as nonlinear and chaotic in nature. Although it emerged gradually, the epidemic was highly responsive to massive interventions initiated on January 21, 2020, as indicated by results from both second derivative and exponential modeling analyses. The epidemic started to decelerate immediately after the massive actions. The results derived from our analysis signaled the decline of the epidemic 14 days before it eventually occurred on February 4, 2020. Study findings further signaled an accelerated decline in the epidemic starting in 14 days on February 18, 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The coronavirus epidemic appeared to be nonlinear and chaotic, and was responsive to effective interventions. The methods used in this study can be applied in surveillance to inform and encourage the general public, public health professionals, clinicians and decision-makers to take coordinative and collaborative efforts to control the epidemic.

negative: Cold Exposure-Induced Up-Regulation of Hsp70 Positively Regulates PEDV mRNA Synthesis and Protein Expression In Vitro Porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) is a highly contagious, intestinal infectious disease caused by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). PEDV as an emerging and re-emerging epizootic virus of swine causes substantial economic losses to the pig industry in China and other countries. In China, the occurrence of PED shows significant seasonal variations, usually outbreak during the winter season. The epidemic characteristics of PED may be highly correlated with the changes of ambient temperature. However, molecular mechanism on the seasonal occurrence of PED still remains unclear. It has been widely observed that low ambient temperature up-regulates the expression of host heat shock protein 70 (Hsp70). Here, we showed that nucleotide and protein levels of Hsp70 were up-regulated in the intestinal of cold exposed pig and cold exposed Vero E6 cells. We found that overexpression of Hsp70 could increase PEDV mRNA synthesis and protein expression in Vero E6 and IPEC-J2 cells, while the siRNAs mediated knockdown of Hsp70 and VER155008 mediated inhibition of Hsp70 resulted in inhibition of viral mRNA synthesis and protein expression in Vero E6 cells. These data suggested that Hsp70 positively regulated PEDV mRNA synthesis and protein expression, which being helpful for understanding the seasonality of PED epidemics and development of novel antiviral therapies in the future.

negative: Post-translational modifications of coronavirus proteins: roles and function Post-translational modifications (PTMs) refer to the covalent modifications of polypeptides after they are synthesized, adding temporal and spatial regulation to modulate protein functions. Being obligate intracellular parasites, viruses rely on the protein synthesis machinery of host cells to support replication, and not surprisingly, many viral proteins are subjected to PTMs. Coronavirus (CoV) is a group of enveloped RNA viruses causing diseases in both human and animals. Many CoV proteins are modified by PTMs, including glycosylation and palmitoylation of the spike and envelope protein, N- or O-linked glycosylation of the membrane protein, phosphorylation and ADP-ribosylation of the nucleocapsid protein, and other PTMs on nonstructural and accessory proteins. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on PTMs of CoV proteins, with an emphasis on their impact on viral replication and pathogenesis. The ability of some CoV proteins to interfere with PTMs of host proteins will also be discussed.

negative: Participants – Multilateral Organizations and International Financial Institutions Multilateral organizations are composed of sovereign governments. They may be regional, organized around a common issue or function, or global. International financial institutions (IFIs) are international banks composed of sovereign member states that use public money from the Member States to provide technical and financial support for developing countries. The United Nations is the organization most involved in the mitigation of, preparedness for, response to, and recovery from disasters around the world. It is considered the best equipped to do so because of its strong relationships with most countries, especially the developing countries where assistance is most needed. When disasters strike, the UN is one of the first organizations to mobilize, and it remains in the affected countries during the recovery period for many years after. The Consolidated Appeal Process is one way the UN garners international support for relief and reconstruction. In many regions, governments have formed smaller international organizations, many of which address risk, as well. The IFIs provide nations with low capital reserves funding in the aftermath of disasters recovery reconstruction. The World Bank is regarded as one of the largest sources of development assistance.

negative: Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study BACKGROUND: A range of public health measures have been implemented to suppress local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioural changes of the public on the incidence of COVID-19, as well as on influenza virus infections, which might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19. METHODS: We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (R(t)) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time. Attitudes towards COVID-19 and changes in population behaviours were reviewed through three telephone surveys done on Jan 20–23, Feb 11–14, and March 10–13, 2020. FINDINGS: COVID-19 transmissibility measured by R(t) has remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% CI 34–53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, from an estimated R(t) of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26–1·30) before the start of the school closures to 0·72 (0·70–0·74) during the closure weeks. Similarly, a 33% (24–43%) reduction in transmissibility was seen based on paediatric hospitalisation rates, from an R(t) of 1·10 (1·06–1·12) before the start of the school closures to 0·73 (0·68–0·77) after school closures. Among respondents to the surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%, 90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places in surveys 1 (n=1008), 2 (n=1000), and 3 (n=1005), respectively. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and are also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early February, 2020. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

negative: Systematic Identification of Novel, Essential Host Genes Affecting Bromovirus RNA Replication Positive-strand RNA virus replication involves viral proteins and cellular proteins at nearly every replication step. Brome mosaic virus (BMV) is a well-established model for dissecting virus-host interactions and is one of very few viruses whose RNA replication, gene expression and encapsidation have been reproduced in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Previously, our laboratory identified ∼100 non-essential host genes whose loss inhibited or enhanced BMV replication at least 3-fold. However, our isolation of additional BMV-modulating host genes by classical genetics and other results underscore that genes essential for cell growth also contribute to BMV RNA replication at a frequency that may be greater than that of non-essential genes. To systematically identify novel, essential host genes affecting BMV RNA replication, we tested a collection of ∼900 yeast strains, each with a single essential gene promoter replaced by a doxycycline-repressible promoter, allowing repression of gene expression by adding doxycycline to the growth medium. Using this strain array of ∼81% of essential yeast genes, we identified 24 essential host genes whose depleted expression reproducibly inhibited or enhanced BMV RNA replication. Relevant host genes are involved in ribosome biosynthesis, cell cycle regulation and protein homeostasis, among other cellular processes. BMV 2a(Pol) levels were significantly increased in strains depleted for a heat shock protein (HSF1) or proteasome components (PRE1 and RPT6), suggesting these genes may affect BMV RNA replication by directly or indirectly modulating 2a(Pol) localization, post-translational modification or interacting partners. Investigating the diverse functions of these newly identified essential host genes should advance our understanding of BMV-host interactions and normal cellular pathways, and suggest new modes of virus control.

negative: Short Term Effects of Weather on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore. METHODS: The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally, autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks. RESULTS: Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2 weeks. Every 1°C increases in maximum temperature above 32°C elevated the risk of HFMD incidence by 36% (95% CI = 1.341–1.389). Simultaneously, one mm increase of weekly cumulative rainfall below 75 mm increased the risk of HFMD by 0.3% (CI = 1.002–1.003). While above 75 mm the effect was opposite and each mm increases of rainfall decreased the incidence by 0.5% (CI = 0.995–0.996). We also found that a difference between minimum and maximum temperature greater than 7°C elevated the risk of HFMD by 41% (CI = 1.388–1.439). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a strong association between HFMD and weather. However, the exact reason for the association is yet to be studied. Information on maximum temperature above 32°C and moderate rainfall precede HFMD incidence could help to control and curb the up-surging trend of HFMD.

negative: Understanding Human Coronavirus HCoV-NL63 Even though coronavirus infection of humans is not normally associated with severe diseases, the identification of the coronavirus responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome showed that highly pathogenic coronaviruses can enter the human population. Shortly thereafter, in Holland in 2004, another novel human coronavirus (HCoV-NL63) was isolated from a seven-month old infant suffering from respiratory symptoms. This virus has subsequently been identified in various countries, indicating a worldwide distribution. HCoV-NL63 has been shown to infect mainly children and the immunocommpromised, who presented with either mild upper respiratory symptoms (cough, fever and rhinorrhoea) or more serious lower respiratory tract involvement such as bronchiolitis and croup, which was observed mainly in younger children. In fact, HCoV-NL63 is the aetiological agent for up to 10% of all respiratory diseases. This review summarizes recent findings of human coronavirus HCoV-NL63 infections, including isolation and identification, phylogeny and taxonomy, genome structure and transcriptional regulation, transmission and pathogenesis, and detection and diagnosis.

negative: Single organelle analysis to characterize mitochondrial function and crosstalk during viral infection Mitochondria are key for cellular metabolism and signalling processes during viral infection. We report a methodology to analyse mitochondrial properties at the single-organelle level during viral infection using a recombinant adenovirus coding for a mitochondrial tracer protein for tagging and detection by multispectral flow cytometry. Resolution at the level of tagged individual mitochondria revealed changes in mitochondrial size, membrane potential and displayed a fragile phenotype during viral infection of cells. Thus, single-organelle and multi-parameter resolution allows to explore altered energy metabolism and antiviral defence by tagged mitochondria selectively in virus-infected cells and will be instrumental to identify viral immune escape and to develop and monitor novel mitochondrial-targeted therapies.

negative: Estimation of basic reproduction number of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during the outbreak in South Korea, 2015 BACKGROUND: In South Korea, an outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) occurred in 2015. It was the second largest MERS outbreak. As a result of the outbreak in South Korea, 186 infections were reported, and 36 patients died. At least 16,693 people were isolated with suspicious symptoms. This paper estimates the basic reproduction number of the MERS coronavirus (CoV), using data on the spread of MERS in South Korea. METHODS: The basic reproduction number of an epidemic is defined as the average number of secondary cases that an infected subject produces over its infectious period in a susceptible and uninfected population. To estimate the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV, we employ data from the 2015 South Korea MERS outbreak and the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model, a mathematical model that uses a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). RESULTS: We fit the model to the epidemic data of the South Korea outbreak minimizing the sum of the squared errors to identify model parameters. Also we derive the basic reproductive number as the terms of the parameters of the SIR model. Then we determine the basic reproduction number of the MERS-CoV in South Korea in 2015 as 8.0977. It is worth comparing with the basic reproductive number of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa including Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, which had values of 1.5–2.5. CONCLUSIONS: There was no intervention to control the infection in the early phase of the outbreak, thus the data used here provide the best conditions to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of MERS, such as the basic reproduction number. An evaluation of basic reproduction number using epidemic data could be problematic if there are stochastic fluctuations in the early phase of the outbreak, or if the report is not accurate and there is bias in the data. Such problems are not relevant to this study because the data used here were precisely reported and verified by Korea Hospital Association.

negative: SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 main protease residue interaction networks change when bound to inhibitor N3 COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 has many similarities with SARS-CoV. Both viruses rely on a protease called the main protease, or M(pro), for replication. Therefore, inhibiting M(pro) may be a successful strategy for treating COVID-19. Structures are available in the Protein Data Bank of the main proteases of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 with and without inhibitor N3. Comparing these structures revealed residue interaction network changes associated with N3 inhibition. Comparing network clustering with and without inhibitor N3 identified the formation of a cluster of residues 17, 18, 30-33, 70, 95, 98, 103, 117, 122, and 177 as a network change in both viral proteases when bound to inhibitor N3. Betweenness and stress centrality differences as well as differences in bond energies and relative B-factors when comparing free M(pro) to inhibitor-bound M(pro) identified residues 131, 175, 182, and 185 as possibly conformationally relevant when bound to the inhibitor N3. Taken together, these results provide insight into conformational changes of betacoronavirus M(pro)s when bound to an inhibitor.

negative: Building resilience against biological hazards and pandemics: COVID-19 and its implications for the Sendai Framework Abstract 2020 has become the year of coping with COVID-19. This year was to be the “super year” for sustainability, a year of strengthening global actions to accelerate the transformations required for achieving the 2030 agenda. We argue that 2020 can and must be a year of both. Thus we call for more utilisation of the health-emergency disaster risk management (Health-EDRM) framework to complement current responses to COVID-19 and the patent risk of similar phenomena in the future. To make our case, we examine current responses to COVID-19 and their implications for the SFDRR. We argue that current mechanisms and strategies for disaster resilience, as outlined in the SFDRR, can enhance responses to epidemics or global pandemics such as COVID-19. In this regard, we make several general and DRR-specific recommendations. These recommendations concern knowledge and science provision in understanding disaster and health-related emergency risks, the extension of disaster risk governance to manage both disaster risks and potential health-emergencies, particularly for humanitarian coordination aspects; and the strengthening of community-level preparedness and response.

negative: Association of COVID-19 Infections in San Francisco in Early March 2020 with Travel to New York and Europe Real-time dissemination of epidemiological survey data from positive COVID-19 cases is critical to support efforts to contain or reduce spread of viral infection in the community. Here we detected a significant association between domestic travel or travel to Europe and the identification of new cases in San Francisco, California, USA. These findings suggest that domestic and European travelers may need to be prioritized for evaluation of acute infection from COVID-19 in the setting of limited testing capacity.

negative: Retinal pathology in multiple sclerosis: insight into the mechanisms of neuronal pathology

negative: Chapter 9 Environmental and Occupational Health Abstract Environmental and occupational health is affected by chemical, physical, radiological, and biological agents in the air, water, and soil. Health risks include injury, and exposure to toxic radiation, carcinogenic and teratogenic agents, leading to cancer, lung and heart diseases. Environmental factors may result in instant death or long-term illness from unsafe environmental or working conditions. The environment affects populations from small workplace settings to large-scale communities, as well as having global effects. International and governmental responsibility, through policies, laws, regulations, standards, policies, and planning, is vital for tackling global aspects of pollution, including climate change, cataclysmic natural events, drought, air and water pollution, and the potentially catastrophic effects of weather changes. Preparation for disasters is a core public health function in managing the after-effects of tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, and drought. These are potent political and public health issues with huge economic and societal effects.

negative: Food systems for resilient futures In this time of the pandemic, nothing is as it used to be. This change creates space for new narratives towards resilience. The resilience perspective implies preparing for shocks as well as various futures that might evolve. Thus, more sustainable food systems cannot only be built to be pandemic proof. This preparation can be facilitated by co-designing contrasting future narratives, identifying means for developing capacity to adapt to those futures and developing tools to enhance that capacity, such as demonstrated here. The capacity of food systems to adapt and transform is enhanced by dialogue, transparency and collective learning in food value chains and networks, sovereignty over resources, and built-in diversity in response to change. In market-led global food chains, supplier-buyer diversity is important, while in public-led regions with some market protection, farm and crop diversity might matter more in response to variability in weather, price and policies. During, for example, an international conflict, or the time of a pandemic, diverse food sourcing from local producer-consumer cooperatives to community-supported and urban agriculture could secure food for citizens. Assessments of critical diversity in response to shocks and volatility can help actors to tailor effective diversity to manage resilience while avoiding the long-feared trade-off between diversity and resource-use efficiency. The interdependence of humanity deserves attention, as food systems are only as resilient as their weakest actor. A truly resilient global food system implies not only preparedness for coming shocks and changes but also a foundation that makes shocks less probable and critical.

negative: Trending Now: Using Social Media to Predict and Track Disease Outbreaks

negative: Novel 2019 coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): An updated overview for emergency clinicians The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has quickly become a worldwide threat to health, travel, and commerce. This overview analyzes the best information from the early research, including epidemiologic and demographic features from SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV viruses; lessons learned from the experience of an emergency physician in Northern Italy, where the outbreak has devastated the healthcare system; evidence on transmission and prevention through safe use of PPE; evidence and advice on SARS-CoV-2 testing and co-infection; management options; airway management options; steps for rapid sequence intubation in the ED and managing disaster ventilation; and information on managing pediatric and pregnant patients.

negative: Spatiotemporal Clustering of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) Incidence in Saudi Arabia, 2012–2019 Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a great public health concern globally. Although 83% of the globally confirmed cases have emerged in Saudi Arabia, the spatiotemporal clustering of MERS-CoV incidence has not been investigated. This study analysed the spatiotemporal patterns and clusters of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV cases reported in Saudi Arabia between June 2012 and March 2019. Temporal, seasonal, spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses were performed using Kulldorff’s spatial scan statistics to determine the time period and geographical areas with the highest MERS-CoV infection risk. A strongly significant temporal cluster for MERS-CoV infection risk was identified between April 5 and May 24, 2014. Most MERS-CoV infections occurred during the spring season (41.88%), with April and May showing significant seasonal clusters. Wadi Addawasir showed a high-risk spatial cluster for MERS-CoV infection. The most likely high-risk MERS-CoV annual spatiotemporal clusters were identified for a group of cities (n = 10) in Riyadh province between 2014 and 2016. A monthly spatiotemporal cluster included Jeddah, Makkah and Taif cities, with the most likely high-risk MERS-CoV infection cluster occurring between April and May 2014. Significant spatiotemporal clusters of MERS-CoV incidence were identified in Saudi Arabia. The findings are relevant to control the spread of the disease. This study provides preliminary risk assessments for the further investigation of the environmental risk factors associated with MERS-CoV clusters.

negative: Chapter 16 Emerging and Reemerging Viral Diseases Abstract An emerging infectious disease (EID) is defined as a disease caused by a pathogen that has not been observed previously within a population or geographic location. Viruses are a major cause of EIDs, particularly −ssRNA viruses. Many variables are involved in the emergence or reemergence of viruses. These can be classified into human factors, environmental/ecological factors, and viral factors and include urbanization, globalization, weather and climate change, and the genetic composition of the virus. The great majority of emerging viral diseases are zoonoses, notably transmitted by arthropods and nonhuman mammals. Flaviviruses include several notable vector-transmitted viruses, while rodents and bats are thought to be the natural reservoirs of arenaviruses and filoviruses, respectively. This chapter discusses several notable outbreaks of emerging and reemerging viruses, including the 2014–15 outbreak of Ebolavirus in West Africa.

negative: Survival of aerosolized coronavirus in the ambient air Abstract An inactivation of airborne pathogenic Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) virus was investigated under controlled laboratory conditions. Two sets of climatic conditions were used in the experiments; (1) representing common office environment (25°C and 79% RH) and (2) climatic conditions of the Middle Eastern region where the virus was originated from (38°C and 24% RH). At the lower temperature, the virus demonstrated high robustness and strong capability to survive with about 63.5% of microorganisms remaining infectious 60min after aerosolisation. Fortunately, virus decay was much stronger for hot and dry air scenario with only 4.7% survival over 60min procedure.

negative: The Human Coronaviruses The human coronaviruses have been shown to be a major player in clinical microbiology and frequently occur as pathogens responsible for mild to severe respiratory infections. Moreover, two of the most dangerous viral respiratory infections are caused by novel coronaviruses, namely, the SARS and the MERS coronavirus. This chapter briefly summarizes the most important facts and knowledge required for the appropriate laboratory diagnostics of infections caused by the human coronaviruses.

negative: Protein Structure and Sequence Reanalysis of 2019-nCoV Genome Refutes Snakes as Its Intermediate Host and the Unique Similarity between Its Spike Protein Insertions and HIV-1 [Image: see text] As the infection of 2019-nCoV coronavirus is quickly developing into a global pneumonia epidemic, the careful analysis of its transmission and cellular mechanisms is sorely needed. In this Communication, we first analyzed two recent studies that concluded that snakes are the intermediate hosts of 2019-nCoV and that the 2019-nCoV spike protein insertions share a unique similarity to HIV-1. However, the reimplementation of the analyses, built on larger scale data sets using state-of-the-art bioinformatics methods and databases, presents clear evidence that rebuts these conclusions. Next, using metagenomic samples from Manis javanica, we assembled a draft genome of the 2019-nCoV-like coronavirus, which shows 73% coverage and 91% sequence identity to the 2019-nCoV genome. In particular, the alignments of the spike surface glycoprotein receptor binding domain revealed four times more variations in the bat coronavirus RaTG13 than in the Manis coronavirus compared with 2019-nCoV, suggesting the pangolin as a missing link in the transmission of 2019-nCoV from bats to human.

negative: Infectious Diseases, Climate Change Effects on Infectious diseases of humans continue to present a significant burden to our health, disproportionately so in the developing world. Infectious diseases of livestock affect their health and welfare, are themselves important causes of human disease and, exceptionally, can threaten our food security. Wildlife infections again present a zoonotic risk to humans, but additionally, such diseases may threaten vulnerable populations and be a cause of extinction and biodiversity loss. Wild populations are inherently more susceptible to environmental change, largely lacking any human protective influence that domesticated species and human populations may benefit from.

negative: A Tale of Two Communities: Characterizing Reddit Response to COVID-19 through /r/China_Flu and /r/Coronavirus The COVID-19 pandemic has deeply impacted people's lives around the globe. During the extended lockdowns caused by the pandemic, online communities are crucial for people to access information and share experiences. In particular, two"new"communities have emerged on Reddit: /r/China_flu and /r/Coronavirus. By studying activities and users in these two communities, we provide a characterization of people's responses to COVID-19 on Reddit. First, we find that user activity peaks around March 17, when the World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 as a pandemic. Shortly after that, the activity levels of both communities have been declining week by week. We further illustrate the central role of these two communities in the emergence of COVID-related communities. Second, we study the differences between these two communities. /r/Coronavirus is recommended as the official community for COVID-19 on Reddit, while /r/China_flu adopts a loose moderation practice. As a result, we observe that these two communities are gradually growing apart and more extremism is being found in /r/China_flu. Finally, we examine the spillover effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on user activity across the entire Reddit platform. Our results show significant changes in user activities outside COVID-related communities. In subreddits related to finance, food, and countries/cities, user activity is recovering to the pre-pandemic level in late April and May as countries reopen, but subreddits related to travel and sports remain highly impacted and show lower activity levels than the pre-pandemic period. Our work highlights the strength of Reddit as a source for understanding public reactions to COVID-19 and the importance of content moderation on the Internet during a pandemic.

negative: Weather-inspired ensemble-based probabilistic prediction of COVID-19 The objective of this work is to predict the spread of COVID-19 starting from observed data, using a forecast method inspired by probabilistic weather prediction systems operational today. Results show that this method works well for China: on day 25 we could have predicted well the outcome for the next 35 days. The same method has been applied to Italy and South Korea, and forecasts for the forthcoming weeks are included in this work. For Italy, forecasts based on data collected up to today (24 March) indicate that number of observed cases could grow from the current value of 69,176, to between 101k-180k, with a 50% probability of being between 110k-135k. For South Korea, it suggests that the number of observed cases could grow from the current value of 9,018 (as of the 23rd of March), to values between 8,500 and 9,300, with a 50% probability of being between 8,700 and 8,900. We conclude by suggesting that probabilistic disease prediction systems are possible and could be developed following key ideas and methods from weather forecasting. Having access to skilful daily updated forecasts could help taking better informed decisions on how to manage the spread of diseases such as COVID-19.

negative: Predictions for COVID-19 outbreak in India using Epidemiological models COVID-19 data from India is compared against several countries as well as key states in the US with a major outbreak, and it is found that the basic reproduction number R_0 for India is in the expected range of 1.4-3.9. Further, the rate of growth of infections in India is very close to that in Washington and California. Exponential and classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models based on available data are used to make short and long-term predictions on a daily basis. Based on the SIR model, it is estimated that India will enter equilibrium by the end of May 2020 with the final epidemic size of approximately 13,000. However, this estimation will be invalid if India enters the stage of community transmission. The impact of social distancing, again with the assumption of no community transmission, is also assessed by comparing data from different geographical locations.

negative: Research on the Influence of Information Diffusion on the Transmission of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) With the rapid development of mobile Internet in China, the information of the epidemic is full-time and holographic, and the role of information diffusion in epidemic control is increasingly prominent. At the same time, the publicity of all kinds of big data also provides the possibility to explore the impact of media information diffusion on disease transmission. This paper explores the mechanism of the influence of information diffusion on the spread of the novel coronavirus, develops a model of the interaction between information diffusion and disease transmission based on the SIR model, and empirically tests the role and mechanism of information diffusion in the spread of COCID-19 by using econometric method. The result shows that there was a significant negative correlation between the information diffusion and the spread of the novel coronavirus; The result of robust test shows that the spread of both epidemic information and protection information hindered the further spread of the epidemic.

negative: Curation of viral genomes: challenges, applications and the way forward BACKGROUND: Whole genome sequence data is a step towards generating the 'parts list' of life to understand the underlying principles of Biocomplexity. Genome sequencing initiatives of human and model organisms are targeted efforts towards understanding principles of evolution with an application envisaged to improve human health. These efforts culminated in the development of dedicated resources. Whereas a large number of viral genomes have been sequenced by groups or individuals with an interest to study antigenic variation amongst strains and species. These independent efforts enabled viruses to attain the status of 'best-represented taxa' with the highest number of genomes. However, due to lack of concerted efforts, viral genomic sequences merely remained as entries in the public repositories until recently. RESULTS: VirGen is a curated resource of viral genomes and their analyses. Since its first release, it has grown both in terms of coverage of viral families and development of new modules for annotation and analysis. The current release (2.0) includes data for twenty-five families with broad host range as against eight in the first release. The taxonomic description of viruses in VirGen is in accordance with the ICTV nomenclature. A well-characterised strain is identified as a 'representative entry' for every viral species. This non-redundant dataset is used for subsequent annotation and analyses using sequenced-based Bioinformatics approaches. VirGen archives precomputed data on genome and proteome comparisons. A new data module that provides structures of viral proteins available in PDB has been incorporated recently. One of the unique features of VirGen is predicted conformational and sequential epitopes of known antigenic proteins using in-house developed algorithms, a step towards reverse vaccinology. CONCLUSION: Structured organization of genomic data facilitates use of data mining tools, which provides opportunities for knowledge discovery. One of the approaches to achieve this goal is to carry out functional annotations using comparative genomics. VirGen, a comprehensive viral genome resource that serves as an annotation and analysis pipeline has been developed for the curation of public domain viral genome data . Various steps in the curation and annotation of the genomic data and applications of the value-added derived data are substantiated with case studies.

negative: SARS-CoV-2: virus dynamics and host response

negative: Climate change impacts and risks for animal health in Asia. The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent, because of its size and diversity, may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change, and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases and stress, extreme weather events, adaptation of animal production systems to new environments, and emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases critically dependent on environmental and climatic conditions. To face these new menaces, the need for strong and efficient Veterinary Services is irrefutable, combined with good coordination of public health services, as many emerging human diseases are zoonoses. Asian developing countries have acute weaknesses in their Veterinary Services, which jeopardises the global surveillance network essential for early detection of hazards. Indeed, international cooperation within and outside Asia is vital to mitigating the risks of climate change to animal health in Asia.

negative: Coronavirus, as a source of pandemic pathogens The coronavirus and the influenza virus have similarities and differences. In order to comprehensively compare them, their genome sequencing data were examined by principal component analysis. Variations in coronavirus were smaller than those in a subclass of the influenza virus. In addition, differences among coronaviruses in a variety of hosts were small. These characteristics may have facilitated the infection of different hosts. Although many of the coronaviruses were more conservative, those repeatedly found among humans showed annual changes. If SARS-CoV-2 changes its genome like the Influenza H type, it will repeatedly spread every few years. In addition, the coronavirus family has many other candidates for subsequent pandemics. One Sentence Summary The genome data of coronavirus were compared to influenza virus, to investigate its spreading mechanism and future status. Coronavirus would repeatedly spread every few years. In addition, the coronavirus family has many other candidates for subsequent pandemics.

negative: COVID-19 Impact on Young Arthroplasty Surgeons BACKGROUND: The current coronavirus crisis, COVID-19, has affected all orthopedic surgeons. Surgeons at early stages of their career are at risk of being affected differently than their more established counterparts. METHODS: We conducted an online survey for members of the Young Arthroplasty Group to determine what effects this had on their current practice. RESULTS: Nearly 40% of our surveyed group responded ranging from residents, fellows, and early career surgeons. All groups had been affected by the crisis, with different impacts on each subgroup. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 had significant impact on young surgeons affecting their compensation, redeployment, and career advancement. Available resources should be offered to this group, where available, to mitigate the impact of the crisis.

negative: Changes of CT findings in a 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia patient

negative: Evolutionary insights into host–pathogen interactions from mammalian sequence data Infections are one of the major selective pressures acting on humans, and host-pathogen interactions contribute to shaping the genetic diversity of both organisms. Evolutionary genomic studies take advantage of experiments that natural selection has been performing over millennia. In particular, inter-species comparative genomic analyses can highlight the genetic determinants of infection susceptibility or severity. Recent examples show how evolution-guided approaches can provide new insights into host–pathogen interactions, ultimately clarifying the basis of host range and explaining the emergence of different diseases. We describe the latest developments in comparative immunology and evolutionary genetics, showing their relevance for understanding the molecular determinants of infection susceptibility in mammals. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (doi:10.1038/nrg3905) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Preserving Access: A Review of Stroke Thrombectomy during the COVID-19 Pandemic Thrombectomy for large-vessel-occlusion stroke is a highly impactful treatment. The spread of coronavirus 19 (COVID-19) across the United States and the globe impacts access to this crucial intervention through widespread societal and institutional changes. In this document, we review the implications of COVID-19 on the emergency care of large-vessel occlusion stroke, reviewing specific infection-control recommendations, available literature, existing resources, and expert consensus. As a population, patients with large-vessel occlusion stroke face unique challenges during pandemics. These are broad in scope. Responses to these challenges through adaptation of stroke systems of care and with imaging, thrombectomy, and postprocedural care are detailed. Preservation of access to thrombectomy must be prioritized for its public health impact. While the extent of required changes will vary by region, tiered planning for both escalation and de-escalation of measures must be a part of each practice. In addition, preparations described serve as templates in the event of future pandemics.

negative: Multiplexed Component Analysis to Identify Genes Contributing to the Immune Response during Acute SIV Infection Immune response genes play an important role during acute HIV and SIV infection. Using an SIV macaque model of AIDS and CNS disease, our overall goal was to assess how the expression of genes associated with immune and inflammatory responses are longitudinally changed in different organs or cells during SIV infection. To compare RNA expression of a panel of 88 immune-related genes across time points and among three tissues – spleen, mesenteric lymph nodes (MLN) and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) – we designed a set of Nanostring probes. To identify significant genes during acute SIV infection and to investigate whether these genes are tissue-specific or have global roles, we introduce a novel multiplexed component analysis (MCA) method. This combines multivariate analysis methods with multiple preprocessing methods to create a set of 12 “judges”; each judge emphasizes particular types of change in gene expression to which cells could respond, for example, the absolute or relative size of expression change from baseline. Compared to bivariate analysis methods, our MCA method improved classification rates. This analysis allows us to identify three categories of genes: (a) consensus genes likely to contribute highly to the immune response; (b) genes that would contribute highly to the immune response only if certain assumptions are met – e.g. that the cell responds to relative expression change rather than absolute expression change; and (c) genes whose contribution to immune response appears to be modest. We then compared the results across the three tissues of interest; some genes are consistently highly-contributing in all tissues, while others are specific for certain tissues. Our analysis identified CCL8, CXCL10, CXCL11, MxA, OAS2, and OAS1 as top contributing genes, all of which are stimulated by type I interferon. This suggests that the cytokine storm during acute SIV infection is a systemic innate immune response against viral replication. Furthermore, these genes have approximately equal contributions to all tissues, making them possible candidates to be used as non-invasive biomarkers in studying PBMCs instead of MLN and spleen during acute SIV infection experiments. We identified clusters of genes that co-vary together and studied their correlation with regard to other gene clusters. We also developed novel methods to faithfully visualize multi-gene correlations on two-dimensional polar plots, and to visualize tissue specificity of gene expression responses.

negative: Environmental Contact and Self-contact Patterns of Healthcare Workers: Implications for Infection Prevention and Control BACKGROUND: Respiratory viruses on fomites can be transferred to sites susceptible to infection via contact by hands or other fomites. METHODS: Care for hospitalized patients with viral respiratory infections was observed in the patient room for 3-hour periods at an acute care academic medical center for over a 2 year period. One trained observer recorded the healthcare activities performed, contacts with fomites, and self-contacts made by healthcare workers (HCWs), while another observer recorded fomite contacts of patients during the encounter using predefined checklists. RESULTS: The surface contacted by HCWs during the majority of visits was the patient (90%). Environmental surfaces contacted by HCWs frequently during healthcare activities included the tray table (48%), bed surface (41%), bed rail (41%), computer station (37%), and intravenous pole (32%). HCWs touched their own torso and mask in 32% and 29% of the visits, respectively. HCWs’ self-contacts differed significantly among HCW job roles, with providers and respiratory therapists contacting themselves significantly more times than nurses and nurse technicians (P < .05). When HCWs performed only 1 care activity, there were significant differences in the number of patient contacts and self-contacts that HCWs made during performance of multiple care activities (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: HCWs regularly contact environmental surfaces, patients, and themselves while providing care to patients with infectious diseases, varying among care activities and HCW job roles. These contacts may facilitate the transmission of infection to HCWs and susceptible patients.

negative: How Has COVID-19 Affected Our Orthopedic Implant Industry Partners? Implications for the Surgeon-Industry Relationship in 2020 and Beyond BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching societal and financial consequences. The purpose of this study was to evaluate how COVID-19 has affected AAHKS industry partners and the surgeon-industry relationship, emphasizing education, resource allocation, and strategic direction for the 2nd half of 2020. METHODS: AAHKS industry partners were contacted to participate in a blinded survey and optional interview with the AAHKS Industry Relations Committee. Based on the results, a group of AAHKS member surgeons with disparate practice types were asked to postulate on how the COVID-19 pandemic has and will affect their practice and relationship with Industry. RESULTS: AAHKS industry partner responses indicated decreased resource allocation for regional, “other national,” and AAHKS annual meetings (67%, 55%, and 30%, respectively). Web-based educational content was expected to increase in 2020 and will likely remain a point of emphasis in 2021 (100% and 70% of responders). For Q3/Q4 2020, a significant emphasis was placed on site of service/outpatient TJA and COVID-19-related safety measures (70% and 90% of responders), as well as increased availability of instrumentation and implants (40% and 60%, respectively). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the orthopedic landscape for the foreseeable future. Survey responses by AAHKS industry partners demonstrate a continued commitment to surgeon education with and increasing shift to a web-based platform. Increased resource allocation for outpatient TJA and COVID-19-related safety measures were significant. Articulating optimal mechanisms to aid industry in supporting surgeons with different practice models to meet demand during the second half of fiscal year 2020 will be critical.

negative: Substantial Changes in Nitrate Oxide and Ozone after Excluding Meteorological Impacts during the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mainland China [Image: see text] The COVID-19 outbreak in China led to dramatic changes in human activities resulting from the sudden infection prevention and control measures. Here, we use ground-level observations and model simulations to examine the nationwide spatial–temporal variations of six air pollutants before and after the initiation of First-Level Public Health Emergency Response. The level of ambient NO(2) declined significantly, and in most cities, the decline was dominated by reduced emissions. Meanwhile, the level of O(3) increased significantly during this period, and the nonmeteorological factors explained the increase. For the other air pollutants (PM(2.5), SO(2), and CO), the observed declines on the national scale were obviously affected by the meteorological conditions. In Wuhan, significant declines were found for air pollutants except O(3) and emissions dominated the changes, while in Beijing during the same period, only the level of NO(2) significantly declined. This study clearly shows that the meteorological changes contributed substantially to the observed changes in most air pollutants, and this must be considered in evaluating the impacts of pollutant source changes on air quality during the specific event and in assessing source-oriented risks.

negative: Human Coronavirus 229E Remains Infectious on Common Touch Surface Materials The evolution of new and reemerging historic virulent strains of respiratory viruses from animal reservoirs is a significant threat to human health. Inefficient human-to-human transmission of zoonotic strains may initially limit the spread of transmission, but an infection may be contracted by touching contaminated surfaces. Enveloped viruses are often susceptible to environmental stresses, but the human coronaviruses responsible for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have recently caused increasing concern of contact transmission during outbreaks. We report here that pathogenic human coronavirus 229E remained infectious in a human lung cell culture model following at least 5 days of persistence on a range of common nonbiocidal surface materials, including polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon; PTFE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ceramic tiles, glass, silicone rubber, and stainless steel. We have shown previously that noroviruses are destroyed on copper alloy surfaces. In this new study, human coronavirus 229E was rapidly inactivated on a range of copper alloys (within a few minutes for simulated fingertip contamination) and Cu/Zn brasses were very effective at lower copper concentration. Exposure to copper destroyed the viral genomes and irreversibly affected virus morphology, including disintegration of envelope and dispersal of surface spikes. Cu(I) and Cu(II) moieties were responsible for the inactivation, which was enhanced by reactive oxygen species generation on alloy surfaces, resulting in even faster inactivation than was seen with nonenveloped viruses on copper. Consequently, copper alloy surfaces could be employed in communal areas and at any mass gatherings to help reduce transmission of respiratory viruses from contaminated surfaces and protect the public health.

negative: Viral infections associated with haemophagocytic syndrome Haemophagocytic syndrome (HPS) or haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rare disease caused by a dysfunction of cytotoxic T cells and NK cells. This T cell/NK cell dysregulation causes an aberrant cytokine release, resulting in proliferation/activation of histiocytes with subsequent haemophagocytosis. Histiocytic infiltration of the reticuloendothelial system results in hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, lymphadenopathy and pancytopenia ultimately leading to multiple organ dysfunctions. Common clinical features include high fevers despite broad spectrum antimicrobials, maculopapular rash, neurological symptoms, coagulopathy and abnormal liver function tests. Haemophagocytic syndrome can be either primary, i.e. due to an underlying genetic defect or secondary, associated with malignancies, autoimmune diseases (also called macrophage activation syndrome) or infections. Infectious triggers are most commonly due to viral infections mainly of the herpes group, with EBV being the most common cause. HPS can be fatal if untreated. Early recognition of the clinical presentation and laboratory abnormalities associated with HPS and prompt initiation of treatment can be life saving. HPS triggered by viral infections generally does not respond to specific antiviral therapy but may be treated with immunosuppressive/immunomodulatory agents and, in refractory cases, with bone marrow transplantation. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

negative: Global, regional, and national estimates of levels of preterm birth in 2014: a systematic review and modelling analysis. BACKGROUND Preterm birth is the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years worldwide. Although preterm survival rates have increased in high-income countries, preterm newborns still die because of a lack of adequate newborn care in many low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national rates of preterm birth in 2014, with trends over time for some selected countries. METHODS We systematically searched for data on preterm birth for 194 WHO Member States from 1990 to 2014 in databases of national civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS). We also searched for population-representative surveys and research studies for countries with no or limited CRVS data. For 38 countries with high-quality data for preterm births in 2014, data are reported directly. For countries with at least three data points between 1990 and 2014, we used a linear mixed regression model to estimate preterm birth rates. We also calculated regional and global estimates of preterm birth for 2014. FINDINGS We identified 1241 data points across 107 countries. The estimated global preterm birth rate for 2014 was 10·6% (uncertainty interval 9·0-12·0), equating to an estimated 14·84 million (12·65 million-16·73 million) live preterm births in 2014. 12· 0 million (81·1%) of these preterm births occurred in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Regional preterm birth rates for 2014 ranged from 13·4% (6·3-30·9) in North Africa to 8·7% (6·3-13·3) in Europe. India, China, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Indonesia accounted for 57·9 million (41×4%) of 139·9 million livebirths and 6·6 million (44×6%) of preterm births globally in 2014. Of the 38 countries with high-quality data, preterm birth rates have increased since 2000 in 26 countries and decreased in 12 countries. Globally, we estimated that the preterm birth rate was 9×8% (8×3-10×9) in 2000, and 10×6% (9×0-12×0) in 2014. INTERPRETATION Preterm birth remains a crucial issue in child mortality and improving quality of maternal and newborn care. To better understand the epidemiology of preterm birth, the quality and volume of data needs to be improved, including standardisation of definitions, measurement, and reporting. FUNDING WHO and the March of Dimes.

negative: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Community Testing Team in Scotland: A 14-day review, 6 to 20 February 2020 In response to the outbreak of COVID-19, we set up a team to carry out sampling in the community. This enabled individuals to remain in self-isolation in their own homes and to prevent healthcare settings and services from being overwhelmed by admissions for sampling of suspected cases. There is evidence that this is a cost effective, safe and necessary service to complement COVID-19 testing in hospitals.

negative: The COVID-19 Social Media Infodemic We address the diffusion of information about the COVID-19 with a massive data analysis on Twitter, Instagram, YouTube, Reddit and Gab. We analyze engagement and interest in the COVID-19 topic and provide a differential assessment on the evolution of the discourse on a global scale for each platform and their users. We fit information spreading with epidemic models characterizing the basic reproduction numbers $R_0$ for each social media platform. Moreover, we characterize information spreading from questionable sources, finding different volumes of misinformation in each platform. However, information from both reliable and questionable sources do not present different spreading patterns. Finally, we provide platform-dependent numerical estimates of rumors' amplification.

negative: Liver injury during highly pathogenic human coronavirus infections The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐Cov‐2), the pathogen of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID‐19), has posed a serious threat to global public health. The WHO has declared the outbreak of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection an international public health emergency. Lung lesions have been considered as the major damage caused by SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. However, liver injury has also been reported to occur during the course of the disease in severe cases. Similarly, previous studies have shown that liver damage was common in the patients infected by the other two highly pathogenic coronavirus – severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS‐CoV) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV), and associated with the severity of diseases. In this review, the characteristics and mechanism of liver injury caused by SARS‐CoV, MERS‐CoV as well as SARS‐CoV‐2 infection were summarized, which may provide help for further studies on the liver injury of COVID‐19.

negative: Assessing health burden risk and control effect on dengue fever infection in the southern region of Taiwan BACKGROUND: The high prevalence of dengue in Taiwan and the consecutive large dengue outbreaks in the period 2014–2015 suggest that current control interventions are suboptimal. Understanding the effect of control effort is crucial to inform future control strategies. OBJECTIVES: We developed a framework to measure season-based health burden risk from 2001 to 2014. We reconstructed various intervention coverage to assess the attributable effect of dengue infection control efforts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A dengue–mosquito–human transmission dynamic was used to quantify the vector–host interactions and to estimate the disease epidemics. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to assess health burden risk. A temperature-basic reproduction number (R(0))–DALYs relationship was constructed to examine the potential impacts of temperature on health burden. Finally, a health burden risk model linked a control measure model to evaluate the effect of dengue control interventions. RESULTS: We showed that R(0) and DALYs peaked at 25°C with estimates of 2.37 and 1387, respectively. Results indicated that most dengue cases occurred in fall with estimated DALYs of 323 (267–379, 95% CI) at 50% risk probability. We found that repellent spray had by far the largest control effect with an effectiveness of ~71% in all seasons. Pesticide spray and container clean-up have both made important contributions to reducing prevalence/incidence. Repellent, pesticide spray, container clean-up together with Wolbachia infection suppress dengue outbreak by ~90%. CONCLUSION: Our presented modeling framework provides a useful tool to measure dengue health burden risk and to quantify the effect of dengue control on dengue infection prevalence and disease incidence in the southern region of Taiwan.

negative: Community and landscape change in southeast Alaska Abstract Since the early 1970s, social science research has addressed issues concerning the nature and distribution of values and uses associated with natural resources. In part, this research has tried to improve our understanding of interconnections between resource management and social and cultural change on the Tongass National Forest in southeast Alaska. In 1997, scientists at the Pacific Northwest Research Station (PNW) initiated a number of social science studies in response to information gaps identified while developing the Tongass Land Management Plan. Results presented here summarize findings from studies of traditional ecological knowledge, subsistence use of natural resources, tourism trends and the effects of tourism on communities, and social acceptability of alternative timber harvest practices. Management implications are discussed along with suggestions for further study.

negative: CORD-19: The COVID-19 Open Research Dataset The COVID-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19) is a growing resource of scientific papers on COVID-19 and related historical coronavirus research. CORD-19 is designed to facilitate the development of text mining and information retrieval systems over its rich collection of metadata and structured full text papers. Since its release, CORD-19 has been downloaded over 200K times and has served as the basis of many COVID-19 text mining and discovery systems. In this article, we describe the mechanics of dataset construction, highlighting challenges and key design decisions, provide an overview of how CORD-19 has been used, and describe several shared tasks built around the dataset. We hope this resource will continue to bring together the computing community, biomedical experts, and policy makers in the search for effective treatments and management policies for COVID-19.

negative: Predictive Modeling on the Number of Covid-19 Death Toll in the United States Considering the Effects of Coronavirus-Related Changes and Covid-19 Recovered Cases COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Many countries around the world implemented their own policies and restrictions designed to limit the spread of Covid-19 in recent months. Businesses and schools transitioned into working and learning remotely. In the United States, many states were under strict orders to stay home at least in the month of April. In recent weeks, there are some significant changes related restrictions include social-distancing, reopening states, and staying-at-home orders. The United States surpassed 2 million coronavirus cases on Monday, June 15, 2020 less than five months after the first case was confirmed in the country. The virus has killed at least 115,000 people in the United States as of Monday, June 15, 2020, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. With the recent easing of coronavirus-related restrictions and changes on business and social activity such as stay-at-home, social distancing since late May 2020 hoping to restore economic and business activities, new Covid-19 outbreaks are on the rise in many states across the country. Some researchers expressed concern that the process of easing restrictions and relaxing stay-at-home orders too soon could quickly surge the number of infected Covid-19 cases as well as the death toll in the United States. Some of these increases, however, could be due to more testing sites in the communities while others may be are the results of easing restrictions due to recent reopening and changed policies, though the number of daily death toll does not appear to be going down in recent days due to Covid-19 in the U.S. This raises the challenging question: * How can policy decision-makers and community leaders make the decision to implement public policies and restrictions and keep or lift staying-at-home orders of ongoing Covid-19 pandemic for their communities in a scientific way? In this study, we aim to develop models addressing the effects of recent Covid-19 related changes in the communities such as reopening states, practicing social-distancing, and staying-at-home orders. Our models account for the fact that changes to these policies which can lead to a surge of coronavius cases and deaths, especially in the United States. Specifically, in this paper we develop a novel generalized mathematical model and several explicit models considering the effects of recent reopening states, staying-at-home orders and social-distancing practice of different communities along with a set of selected indicators such as the total number of coronavirus recovered and new cases that can estimate the daily death toll and total number of deaths in the United States related to Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results among the developed models based on several existing criteria. The model also can be used to predict the number of death toll in Italy and the United Kingdom (UK). The results show very encouraging predictability for the proposed models in this study. The model predicts that 128,500 to 140,100 people in the United States will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, 2020. The model also predicts that between 137,900 and 154,000 people will have died of Covid-19 by July 31, and 148,500 to 169,700 will have died by the end of August 2020, as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 based on the Covid-19 death data available on June 13, 2020. The model also predicts that 34,900 to 37,200 people in Italy will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, and 36,900 to 40,400 people will have died by the end of August based on the data available on June 13, 2020. The model also predicts that between 43,500 and 46,700 people in the United Kingdom will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, and 48,700 to 51,900 people will have died by the end of August, as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 based on the data available on June 13, 2020. The model can serve as a framework to help policy makers a scientific approach in quantifying decision-makings related to Covid-19 affairs.

negative: Ultrastructure of human nasal epithelium during an episode of coronavirus infection The nasal epithelium from a young girl was examined by electron microscopy and found to be infected by coronavirus. Virions are seen within and outside the ciliated cells, but not outside or within the goblet cells or other cells of the nasal mucosa. Some virions are located near the microvilli, others in pockets in the apical cell membrane. The cytoplasm contains many small vesicles with a single virion, large apical vesicles containing hundreds of virions, and lysosome-like cytosomes with a moderate number of virions. Some viruslike particles devoid of an electron-dense interior are seen both in the cytosomes and extracellularly. Virus budding was observed in the Golgi apparatus but nowhere else in the cell. The ciliated cells seem not to be destroyed by the viruses, although in many cases the cilia are withdrawn into the cell body. The loss of cilia is likely to cause rhinorrhoea.

negative: Spatial-temporal variations of atmospheric factors contribute to SARS-CoV-2 outbreak The global outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reached over two million confirmed cases worldwide, and numbers are still growing at a fast rate. The majority of new infections are now being reported outside of China, where the outbreak officially originated in December 2019 in Wuhan. Despite the wide outbreak of the infection, a remarkable asymmetry is observed in the number of cases and in the distribution of the severity of the COVID-19 symptoms in patients with respect to the countries/regions. In the early stages of a new pathogen outbreak, it is critical to understand the dynamics of the infection transmission, in order to follow contagion over time and project the epidemiological situation in the near future. While it is possible to reason that observed variation in the number and severity of cases stem from the initial number of infected individuals, the difference in the testing policies and social aspects of community transmissions, the factors that could explain high discrepancy in areas with a similar level of healthcare still remain unknown. Here we introduce a binary classifier based on an artificial neural network that can help in explaining those differences and that can be used to support the design of containment policies. We propose that air pollutants, and specifically particulate matter (PM) 2.5 and ozone, are oppositely related with the SARS-CoV-2 infection frequency and could serve as surrogate markers to complement the infection outbreak anticipation.

negative: Informational needs assessment of non‐Hodgkin lymphoma survivors and their physicians

negative: Renin-angiotensin system: The unexpected flaw inside the human immune system revealed by SARS-CoV-2

negative: A Heuristic Indication and Warning Staging Model for Detection and Assessment of Biological Events OBJECTIVE: This paper presents a model designed to enable rapid detection and assessment of biological threats that may require swift intervention by the international public health community. DESIGN: We utilized Strauss’ grounded theory to develop an expanded model of social disruption due to biological events based on retrospective and prospective case studies. We then applied this model to the temporal domain and propose a heuristic staging model, the Wilson–Collmann Scale for assessing biological event evolution. MEASUREMENTS: We retrospectively and manually examined hard copy archival local media reports in the native vernacular for three biological events associated with substantial social disruption. The model was then tested prospectively through media harvesting based on keywords corresponding to the model parameters. RESULTS: Our heuristic staging model provides valuable information about the features of a biological event that can be used to determine the level of concern warranted, such as whether the pathogen in question is responding to established public health disease control measures, including the use of antimicrobials or vaccines; whether the public health and medical infrastructure of the country involved is adequate to mount the necessary response; whether the country’s officials are providing an appropriate level of information to international public health authorities; and whether the event poses a international threat. The approach is applicable for monitoring open-source (public-domain) media for indications and warnings of such events, and specifically for markers of the social disruption that commonly occur as these events unfold. These indications and warnings can then be used as the basis for staging the biological threat in the same manner that the United States National Weather Service currently uses storm warning models (such as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) to detect and assess threatening weather conditions. CONCLUSION: Used as a complement to current epidemiological surveillance methods, our approach could aid global public health officials and national political leaders in responding to biological threats of international public health significance.

negative: Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China This study models local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus in China between January 19 and February 29, 2020. We examine the role of various socioeconomic mediating factors, including public health measures that encourage social distancing in local communities. Weather characteristics 2 weeks prior are used as instrumental variables for causal inference. Stringent quarantines, city lockdowns, and local public health measures imposed in late January significantly decreased the virus transmission rate. The virus spread was contained by the middle of February. Population outflow from the outbreak source region posed a higher risk to the destination regions than other factors, including geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. We quantify the effects of different public health measures in reducing the number of infections through counterfactual analyses. Over 1.4 million infections and 56,000 deaths may have been avoided as a result of the national and provincial public health measures imposed in late January in China.

negative: The RNA Virus Database http://virus.zoo.ox.ac.uk/rnavirusdb; http://hivweb.sanbi.ac.za/rnavirusdb; http://bioinf.cs.auckland.ac.nz/rnavirusdb; http://tree.bio.ed.ac.uk/rnavirusdb.

negative: Post COVID 19 and food pathways to sustainable transformation

negative: Systems approaches to coronavirus pathogenesis Coronaviruses comprise a large group of emergent human and animal pathogens, including the highly pathogenic SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV strains that cause significant morbidity and mortality in infected individuals, especially the elderly. As emergent viruses may cause episodic outbreaks of disease over time, human samples are limited. Systems biology and genetic technologies maximize opportunities for identifying critical host and viral genetic factors that regulate susceptibility and virus-induced disease severity. These approaches provide discovery platforms that highlight and allow targeted confirmation of critical targets for prophylactics and therapeutics, especially critical in an outbreak setting. Although poorly understood, it has long been recognized that host regulation of virus-associated disease severity is multigenic. The advent of systems genetic and biology resources provide new opportunities for deconvoluting the complex genetic interactions and expression networks that regulate pathogenic or protective host response patterns following virus infection. Using SARS-CoV as a model, dynamic transcriptional network changes and disease-associated phenotypes have been identified in different genetic backgrounds, leading to the promise of population-wide discovery of the underpinnings of Coronavirus pathogenesis.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 in the ocular surface of COVID-19 patients The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread globally, while the routes of transmission of this virus are still controversial. We enrolled 33 patients, without any ocular manifestation, with their ocular surface swabs collected for virus detection. RNA was detected strong positive in samples of both eyes from two patients. Therefore, SARS-CoV-2 may exist in the normal ocular surface of COVID-19 patients, suggesting that this virus might be spread through conjunctival contact.

negative: Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

negative: Frontiers in climate change–disease research The notion that climate change will generally increase human and wildlife diseases has garnered considerable public attention, but remains controversial and seems inconsistent with the expectation that climate change will also cause parasite extinctions. In this review, we highlight the frontiers in climate change–infectious disease research by reviewing knowledge gaps that make this controversy difficult to resolve. We suggest that forecasts of climate-change impacts on disease can be improved by more interdisciplinary collaborations, better linking of data and models, addressing confounding variables and context dependencies, and applying metabolic theory to host–parasite systems with consideration of community-level interactions and functional traits. Finally, although we emphasize host–parasite interactions, we also highlight the applicability of these points to climate-change effects on species interactions in general.

negative: Production of mice from a lethal coronavirus infection in the central nervous system by adoptive transfer of virus-specific T cell clones Abstract The protective effect of a mouse hepatitis virus type-4 (MHV-4)-specific CD8+ cytotoxic T cell clone and a CD4+ helper T cell clone was examined by the adoptive transfer into brains of mice lethally infected with MHV-4. Mice survived acute encephalitis if more than 5 × 105 cells of either type of the virus-specific T cell clones had been transfered into H-2-matched recipients by 1 day post-infection. Although the adoptive transfer of both types of the T cell clones suppressed viral growth and viral antigen-positive cells in the brains, a significant inhibition of virus replication by the cytotoxic T cell clone was detected prior to that induced by the helper T cell clone. Histologically, cell destruction was prominent in the brains of mice which received the cytotoxic T cell clone. These results demonstrate that both the CD8+ cytotoxic T cell and the CD4+ helper T cell can protect mice from a lethal MHV-4 infection in the central nervous system.

negative: Elucidation of the stability and functional regions of the human coronavirus OC43 nucleocapsid protein Human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) is one of the causes of the “common cold” in human during seasons of cold weather. The primary function of the HCoV-OC43 nucleocapsid protein (N protein) is to recognize viral genomic RNA, which leads to ribonucleocapsid formation. Here, we characterized the stability and identified the functional regions of the recombinant HCoV-OC43 N protein. Circular dichroism and fluorescence measurements revealed that the HCoV-OC43 N protein is more highly ordered and stabler than the SARS-CoV N protein previously studied. Surface plasmon resonance (SPR) experiments showed that the affinity of HCoV-OC43 N protein for RNA was approximately fivefold higher than that of N protein for DNA. Moreover, we found that the HCoV-OC43 N protein contains three RNA-binding regions in its N-terminal region (residues 1–173) and central-linker region (residues 174–232 and 233–300). The binding affinities of the truncated N proteins and RNA follow the order: residues 1–173–residues 233–300 > residues 174–232. SPR experiments demonstrated that the C-terminal region (residues 301–448) of HCoV-OC43 N protein lacks RNA-binding activity, while crosslinking and gel filtration analyses revealed that the C-terminal region is mainly involved in the oligomerization of the HCoV-OC43 N protein. This study may benefit the understanding of the mechanism of HCoV-OC43 nucleocapsid formation.

negative: The phenotypic changes of Î³Î´ T cells in COVID-19 patients A novel pneumonia-associated respiratory syndrome named coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), which caused by SARS-CoV-2 and broken in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019. Unfortunately, there is no specific antiviral agent or vaccine available to treat SARS-CoV-2 infections. Also, information regarding the immunological characteristics in COVID-19 patients remains limited. Here we collected the blood samples from 18 healthy donors (HD) and 38 COVID-19 patients to analyze changes in {gamma}{delta} T cells. In comparison to HD, the {gamma}{delta} T cells percentage was decreased. {gamma}{delta} T cells are able to immediately respond to SARS-CoV-2 infection and upregulate the activation marker CD25. In addition, the increased expression of CD4 in {gamma}{delta} T cells may serve as a biomarker for the assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: Translation from the 5' untranslated region (UTR) of mRNA 1 is repressed, but that from the 5' UTR of mRNA 7 is stimulated in coronavirus-infected cells. Viral gene products are generally required in widely differing amounts for successful virus growth and assembly. For coronaviruses, regulation of transcription is a major contributor to these differences, but regulation of translation may also be important. Here, we examine the possibility that the 5' untranslated regions (UTRs), unique for each of the nine species of mRNA in the bovine coronavirus and ranging in length from 70 nucleotides (nt) to 210 nt (inclusive of the common 5'-terminal 65-nt leader), can differentially affect the rate of protein accumulation. When the natural 77-nt 5' UTR on synthetic transcripts of mRNA 7 (mRNA for N and I proteins) was replaced with the 210-nt 5' UTR from mRNA 1 (genomic RNA, mRNA for viral polymerase), approximately twofold-less N, or (N) CAT fusion reporter protein, was made in vitro. Twofold less was also made in vivo in uninfected cells when a T7 RNA polymerase-driven transient-transfection system was used. In coronavirus-infected cells, this difference surprisingly became 12-fold as the result of both a stimulated translation from the 77-nt 5' UTR and a repression of translation from the 210-nt 5' UTR. These results reveal that a differential 5' UTR-directed regulation of translation can occur in coronavirus-infected cells and lead us to postulate that the direction and degree of regulation is carried out by viral or virally induced cellular factors acting in trans on cis-acting elements within the 5' UTR.

negative: The dark cloud with a silver lining: Assessing the impact of the SARS COVID-19 pandemic on the global environment Abstract The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2 has caused tremendous suffering and huge economic losses. We hypothesized that extreme measures of partial-to-total shutdown might have influenced the quality of the global environment because of decreased emissions of atmospheric pollutants. We tested this hypothesis using satellite imagery, climatic datasets (temperature, and absolute humidity), and COVID-19 cases available in the public domain. While the majority of the cases were recorded from Western countries, where mortality rates were strongly positively correlated with age, the number of cases in tropical regions was relatively lower than European and North American regions, possibly attributed to faster human-to-human transmission. There was a substantial reduction in the level of nitrogen dioxide (NO2: 0.00002 mol m−2), a low reduction in CO (<0.03 mol m−2), and a low-to-moderate reduction in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD: ~0.1–0.2) in the major hotspots of COVID-19 outbreak during February–March 2020, which may be attributed to the mass lockdowns. Our study projects an increasing coverage of high COVID-19 hazard at absolute humidity levels ranging from 4 to 9 g m−3 across a large part of the globe during April–July 2020 due to a high prospective meteorological suitability for COVID-19 spread. Our findings suggest that there is ample scope for restoring the global environment from the ill-effects of anthropogenic activities through temporary shutdown measures.

negative: Coronavirus conspiracy beliefs, mistrust, and compliance with government guidelines in England BACKGROUND: An invisible threat has visibly altered the world. Governments and key institutions have had to implement decisive responses to the danger posed by the coronavirus pandemic. Imposed change will increase the likelihood that alternative explanations take hold. In a proportion of the general population there may be strong scepticism, fear of being misled, and false conspiracy theories. Our objectives were to estimate the prevalence of conspiracy thinking about the pandemic and test associations with reduced adherence to government guidelines. METHODS: A non-probability online survey with 2501 adults in England, quota sampled to match the population for age, gender, income, and region. RESULTS: Approximately 50% of this population showed little evidence of conspiracy thinking, 25% showed a degree of endorsement, 15% showed a consistent pattern of endorsement, and 10% had very high levels of endorsement. Higher levels of coronavirus conspiracy thinking were associated with less adherence to all government guidelines and less willingness to take diagnostic or antibody tests or to be vaccinated. Such ideas were also associated with paranoia, general vaccination conspiracy beliefs, climate change conspiracy belief, a conspiracy mentality, and distrust in institutions and professions. Holding coronavirus conspiracy beliefs was also associated with being more likely to share opinions. CONCLUSIONS: In England there is appreciable endorsement of conspiracy beliefs about coronavirus. Such ideas do not appear confined to the fringes. The conspiracy beliefs connect to other forms of mistrust and are associated with less compliance with government guidelines and greater unwillingness to take up future tests and treatment.

negative: Disease Protection in Sea Coast (and Inland) Cities: Problems in Dense Populations with Shantytowns/Slums As discussed earlier in this book, there are sea coast cities worldwide that are at risk from floods, storm surges, and extreme weather conditions such as wind-driven high category hurricanes (typhoons, monsoons), or drought and heat waves, plus along Pacific Ocean coasts, earthquakes and tsunamis. A municipality and its public health services have to be prepared to adapt to their preparations to deal with what contemporary experiences and history reveal are the most likely physical hazards and diseases to impact it. The two main preparatives are first to be able to care for the injured during a hazard event at well-staffed and supplied hospitals and medical clinics or field hospitals. The second is to fill the basic needs of affected populations with clean water, food, shelter, toilets, waste collection, and if necessary power restoration. These primary responses will help to reduce the chance of an onset and spread of disease. It is important to activate search and rescue teams help citizens isolated or trapped by the event that did not or could not evacuate such as in the case of extreme weather and flooding. In addition, where there have been deaths, bodies should be recovered and interred as soon as possible in order to prevent sickness that might originate from them. For instances of collapsed structures with people trapped inside, equipment that can move debris and rescue people or recover the deceased is necessary as would be the case for less common strong earthquakes as well as some extreme storm events. What was just described may be a good template to follow, but in reality, many sea coast cities in developing and less developed countries do not have the resources to cope with severe hazards that might impact them. Here, the World Health Organization and developed nations, large and small, have sent in personnel, supplies, and equipment to help an impacted sea coast city (or inland city) in the past and will surely continue to do so in the future.

negative: Confronting the Pandemic Superthreat of Climate Change and Urbanization

negative: Epidemic psychiatry: The opportunities and challenges of COVID-19

negative: Coronavirus infection, ER stress, apoptosis and innate immunity The replication of coronavirus, a family of important animal and human pathogens, is closely associated with the cellular membrane compartments, especially the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). Coronavirus infection of cultured cells was previously shown to cause ER stress and induce the unfolded protein response (UPR), a process that aims to restore the ER homeostasis by global translation shutdown and increasing the ER folding capacity. However, under prolonged ER stress, UPR can also induce apoptotic cell death. Accumulating evidence from recent studies has shown that induction of ER stress and UPR may constitute a major aspect of coronavirus–host interaction. Activation of the three branches of UPR modulates a wide variety of signaling pathways, such as mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase activation, autophagy, apoptosis, and innate immune response. ER stress and UPR activation may therefore contribute significantly to the viral replication and pathogenesis during coronavirus infection. In this review, we summarize the current knowledge on coronavirus-induced ER stress and UPR activation, with emphasis on their cross-talking to apoptotic signaling.

negative: Vulnerability of Aboriginal health systems in Canada to climate change Abstract Climate change has been identified as potentially the biggest health threat of the 21st century. Canada in general has a well developed public health system and low burden of health which will moderate vulnerability. However, there is significant heterogeneity in health outcomes, and health inequality is particularly pronounced among Aboriginal Canadians. Intervention is needed to prevent, prepare for, and manage climate change effects on Aboriginal health but is constrained by a limited understanding of vulnerability and its determinants. Despite limited research on climate change and Aboriginal health, however, there is a well established literature on Aboriginal health outcomes, determinants, and trends in Canada; characteristics that will determine vulnerability to climate change. In this paper we systematically review this literature, using a vulnerability framework to identify the broad level factors constraining adaptive capacity and increasing sensitivity to climate change. Determinants identified include: poverty, technological capacity constraints, socio-political values and inequality, institutional capacity challenges, and information deficit. The magnitude and nature of these determinants will be distributed unevenly within and between Aboriginal populations necessitating place-based and regional level studies to examine how these broad factors will affect vulnerability at lower levels. The study also supports the need for collaboration across all sectors and levels of government, open and meaningful dialogue between policy makers, scientists, health professionals, and Aboriginal communities, and capacity building at a local level, to plan for climate change. Ultimately, however, efforts to reduce the vulnerability of Aboriginal Canadians to climate change and intervene to prevent, reduce, and manage climate-sensitive health outcomes, will fail unless the broader determinants of socio-economic and health inequality are addressed.

negative: COVID-19 outbreak: Migration, effects on society, global environment and prevention Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is considered as the most crucial global health calamity of the century and the greatest challenge that the humankind faced since the 2nd World War. In December 2019, a new infectious respiratory disease emerged in Wuhan, Hubei province, China and was named by the World Health Organization as COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019). A new class of corona virus, known as SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) has been found to be responsible for occurrence of this disease. As far as the history of human civilization is concerned there are instances of severe outbreaks of diseases caused by a number of viruses. According to the report of the World Health Organization (WHO as of April 18 2020), the current outbreak of COVID-19, has affected over 2164111 people and killed more than 146,198 people in more than 200 countries throughout the world. Till now there is no report of any clinically approved antiviral drugs or vaccines that are effective against COVID-19. It has rapidly spread around the world, posing enormous health, economic, environmental and social challenges to the entire human population. The coronavirus outbreak is severely disrupting the global economy. Almost all the nations are struggling to slow down the transmission of the disease by testing & treating patients, quarantining suspected persons through contact tracing, restricting large gatherings, maintaining complete or partial lock down etc. This paper describes the impact of COVID-19 on society and global environment, and the possible ways in which the disease can be controlled has also been discussed therein.

negative: Are pangolins the intermediate host of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) ? The outbreak of 2019-nCoV pneumonia (COVID-19) in the city of Wuhan, China has resulted in more than 70,000 laboratory confirmed cases, and recent studies showed that 2019-nCoV (SARS-CoV-2) could be of bat origin but involve other potential intermediate hosts. In this study, we assembled the genomes of coronaviruses identified in sick pangolins. The molecular and phylogenetic analyses showed that pangolin Coronaviruses (pangolin-CoV) are genetically related to both the 2019-nCoV and bat Coronaviruses but do not support the 2019-nCoV arose directly from the pangolin-CoV. Our study also suggested that pangolin be natural host of Betacoronavirus, with a potential to infect humans. Large surveillance of coronaviruses in pangolins could improve our understanding of the spectrum of coronaviruses in pangolins. Conservation of wildlife and limits of the exposures of humans to wildlife will be important to minimize the spillover risks of coronaviruses from wild animals to humans.

negative: Taking “The Promise” Seriously: Medical Sociology’s Role in Health, Illness, and Healing in a Time of Social Change In 1959, C.W. Mills published his now famous treatise on what sociology uniquely brings to understanding the world and the people in it. Every sociologist, of whatever ilk, has had at least a brush with the “sociological imagination,” and nearly everyone who has taken a sociology course has encountered some version of it. As Mills argued, the link between the individual and society, between personal troubles and social issues, between biography and history, or between individual crises and institutional contradictions represents the core vision of the discipline of sociology. While reminding ourselves of the “promise” may be a bit trite, its mention raises the critical question: Why do we have to continually remind ourselves of the unique contribution that we, as sociologists, bring to understanding health, illness, and healing?

negative: Identification of information types and sources by the public for promoting awareness of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in Saudi Arabia Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) is a viral respiratory disease of serious consequences caused by MERS Coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Saudi communities still lack awareness of available protective measures to prevent the transmission of the virus. It is necessary to explore the current information-seeking strategies and preferences for communication tools among the Saudi population to promote dissemination of accurate information. Guided by McGuire’s Input–Output Persuasion Model and focusing on input variables (receiver characteristics, sources, message, channel and destination), we explored the current information-seeking strategies and preferences for different communication tools among residents of Riyadh (n = 658). Preferred and sought-after information sources on MERS. Most participants in the sample were female (61.7%), and the majority (98.2%) had internet access at home. The internet was the most commonly used source of information (39.5%) and the most endorsed channel for a MERS awareness campaign. Physicians were the preferred source of information (45.6%), followed by other health care providers (31.3%). In univariate multinomial logistic regression models, males and individuals aged ≤27 years were more likely to seek information from the internet than from physicians. Residents of southern and western Riyadh preferred physicians as a credible source of information over the Ministry of Health. The results of this survey provide valuable information on how to reach this population and for understanding how to launch an effective MERS risk communication campaign in a Saudi population.

negative: A systematic review of lopinavir therapy for SARS coronavirus and MERS coronavirus—A possible reference for coronavirus disease‐19 treatment option In the past few decades, coronaviruses have risen as a global threat to public health. Currently, the outbreak of coronavirus disease‐19 (COVID‐19) from Wuhan caused a worldwide panic. There are no specific antiviral therapies for COVID‐19. However, there are agents that were used during the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) epidemics. We could learn from SARS and MERS. Lopinavir (LPV) is an effective agent that inhibits the protease activity of coronavirus. In this review, we discuss the literature on the efficacy of LPV in vitro and in vivo, especially in patients with SARS and MERS, so that we might clarify the potential for the use of LPV in patients with COVID‐19.

negative: Scarce COVID-19 Testing Capabilities at Urgent Care Centers in States with Greatest Disease Burden As of March 22, 2020, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has reached nearly 30,000. While rapid and accessible diagnosis is paramount to monitoring and reducing the spread of disease, COVID-19 testing capabilities across the U.S. remain constrained. For many individuals, urgent care centers (UCCs) may offer the most accessible avenue to be tested. Through a phone survey, we describe the COVID-19 testing capabilities at UCCs and provide a snapshot highlighting the limited COVID-19 testing capabilities at UCCs in states with the greatest disease burden.

negative: Mediterranean pasture dynamics: the role of germination Abstract. Meteorological patterns have a decisive influence on the inter‐annual dynamics of therophyte pastures under Mediterranean climatic conditions. The germination behaviour of annual pasture species was studied by subjecting two collections of seeds taken from plants and soil‐seed banks to two phytotron‐simulated weather patterns: early and late autumn rains. Species from these pastures were arranged along a gradient of sensitivity to temperature on the arrival of the first persistent rain. This sensitivity was manifested in both the total germination success of the species and the germination time profile. The different germination patterns of the species can provide competitive advantages depending on the autumn weather conditions.

negative: How to evaluate the success of the COVID-19 measures implemented by the Norwegian government by analyzing changes in doubling time Doubling Time (DT) is typically calculated for growth curves that show exponential growth, such as the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases day by day. DT represents the time it takes before the number of COVID-19 cases, in a certain country or area, doubles. Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, DT values are continually changing. These changes are influenced by the measures that are recommended by the health authorities and implemented by governments. After the governmental shutdowns of Nordic Countries that were announced around the 12th of March 2020, I followed the development of the DT in the region. Governments put in place measure never before experienced during peace time; home working, closed schools and kindergartens, travel bans and social distancing. But does it work? The initial set of results following the shutdown are encouraging, demonstrating a trend towards slower growth; however, this could be reversed if the measures that are in place now are abandoned too early. Premature optimism can be very costly. This paper explains how to monitor growth in real time and evaluate whether the implemented measures are successful.

negative: Impacts of COVID-19 control measures on tropospheric NO$_2$ over China, South Korea and Italy Tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO$_2$) concentrations are strongly affected by anthropogenic activities. Using space-based measurements of tropospheric NO$_2$, here we investigate the responses of tropospheric NO$_2$ to the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) over China, South Korea, and Italy. We find noticeable reductions of tropospheric NO$_2$ columns due to the COVID-19 controls by more than 40% over E. China, South Korea, and N. Italy. The 40% reductions of tropospheric NO$_2$ are coincident with intensive lockdown events as well as up to 20% reductions in anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NO$_x$) emissions. The perturbations in tropospheric NO$_2$ diminished accompanied with the mitigation of COVID-19 pandemic, and finally disappeared within around 50-70 days after the starts of control measures over all three nations, providing indications for the start, maximum, and mitigation of intensive controls. This work exhibits significant influences of lockdown measures on atmospheric environment, highlighting the importance of satellite observations to monitor anthropogenic activity changes.

negative: How to worry better As the coronavirus outbreak continues, the science of dealing with uncertainty can help us make better decisions, says Rachel McCloy

negative: Nelfinavir inhibits replication of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in vitro In December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. No specific treatment has been established against coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) so far. Therefore, it is urgently needed to identify effective antiviral agents for the treatment of this disease, and several approved drugs such as lopinavir have been evaluated. Here, we report that nelfinavir, an HIV-1 protease inhibitor, potently inhibits replication of SARS-CoV-2. The effective concentrations for 50% and 90% inhibition (EC50 and EC90) of nelfinavir were 1.13 µM and 1.76 µM respectively, the lowest of the nine HIV-1 protease inhibitors including lopinavir. The trough and peak serum concentrations of nelfinavir were three to six times higher than EC50 of this drug. These results suggest that nelfinavir is a potential candidate drug for the treatment of COVID-19 and should be assessed in patients with COVID-19.

negative: Lack of Antiviral Activity of Darunavir against SARS-CoV-2 Given the high need and the absence of specific antivirals for treatment of COVID-19 (the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus-2 [SARS-CoV-2]), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) protease inhibitors are being considered as therapeutic alternatives. Prezcobix/Rezolsta is a fixed-dose combination of 800 mg of the HIV protease inhibitor darunavir (DRV) and 150 mg cobicistat, a CYP3A4 inhibitor, which is indicated in combination with other antiretroviral agents for the treatment of HIV infection. There are currently no definitive data on the safety and efficacy of DRV/cobicistat for treatment of COVID-19. The in vitro antiviral activity of darunavir against a clinical isolate from a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2 was assessed. DRV showed no activity against SARS-CoV-2 at clinically relevant concentrations (EC50 >100 μM). Remdesivir, used as a positive control, showed potent antiviral activity (EC50 = 0.38 μM). Overall, the data do not support the use of DRV for treatment of COVID-19.

negative: Atmospheric CO$_2$ and total electricity production before and during the nation-wide restriction of activities as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic In this paper, we analysed real-time measurements of atmospheric CO$_2$ with total electricity production and nation-wide restrictions phases due to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic, and its effects on atmospheric CO$_2$ concentrations. A decline of 3.7% in the global energy demand at about 150 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) in the first quarter (Q1), of 2020 was recorded, as compared to the same first quarter (Q1), of 2019, due to the cutback on global economic activities. Our results showed that: 1) electricity production for the same period in the years 2018, 2019, and 2020, shrunk at an offset of about 9.20%, which resulted in the modest reduction of about (-1.79%), in the atmospheric CO$_2$, to that of 2017-2018 CO$_2$ level; 2) a non-seasonal abrupt; but brief, atmospheric CO$_2$ decrease by about 0.85% in mid-February 2020, could be due to the Phase 1 movement restrictions in China. The results showed that, the reduction in electricity production is significant to the short-term variability of atmospheric CO$_2$. It also highlights the significant contributions from China to the atmospheric CO$_2$, which suggests that, without the national restriction of activities, CO$_2$ concentration are set to exceed 2019 by 1.79%, but it quickly decreased due to the lockdown, and sustained the reduction for two consecutive months. The results underscore the atmospheric CO$_2$ reductions on the monthly time scale that can be achieved, if electricity production from combustible sources were slashed, which could be useful for cost-benefit analyses of the reduction in electricity production from combustible sources, and the impact of these reduction to the atmospheric CO$_2$.

negative: The coronavirus spread: the Italian case A model based on population growth, chaotic maps, and turbulent flows is applied to the spread of Coronavirus for each Italian region in order to obtain useful information and help to contrast it. We divide the regions into different risk categories and discuss anomalies. The worst cases are confined between the Appenine and the Alps mountain ranges but the situation seem to improve closer to the sea. The Veneto region gave the most efficient response so far and some of their resources could be diverted to other regions, in particular, more tests to the Lombardia, Liguria, Piemonte, Marche and V. Aosta regions, which seem to be worst affected. We noticed worrying anomalies in the Lazio, Campania and Sicilia regions to be monitored. We stress that the number of fatalities we predicted on March 12 has been confirmed daily by the bulletins. This suggests a change of strategy in order to reduce such number maybe moving the weaker population (and negative to the virus test) to beach resorts, which should be empty presently. The ratio deceased/positives on April 4, 2020 is 5.4% worldwide, 12.3% in Italy, 1.4% in Germany, 2.7% in the USA, 10.3% in the UK and 4.1% in China. These large fluctuations should be investigated starting from the Italian regions, which show similar large fluctuations.

negative: Unlikely SARS-CoV-2 vertical transmission from mother to child: A case report Abstract As the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) rapidly spread across China and to more than 70 countries, an increasing number of pregnant women were affected. The vertical transmission potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of great concern to the obstetrics, neonatologists, and public health agencies. Though some studies indicated the risk of vertical transmission is low, few cases have been reported with comprehensive serial tests from multiple specimens. In this case, a female preterm infant was born to a mother with confirmed COVID-19. She presented with mild respiratory distress and received general management and a short period of nasal continuous positive airway pressure support. During her stay at the hospital, a series of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic test from her throat and anal swab, serum, bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, and urine were negative. The nucleic acid test from the mother's amniotic fluid, vaginal secretions, cord blood, placenta, serum, anal swab, and breast milk were also negative. The most comprehensively tested case reported to date confirmed that the vertical transmission of COVID is unlikely, but still, more evidence is needed.

negative: Methods for sampling of airborne viruses. To better understand the underlying mechanisms of aerovirology, accurate sampling of airborne viruses is fundamental. The sampling instruments commonly used in aerobiology have also been used to recover viruses suspended in the air. We reviewed over 100 papers to evaluate the methods currently used for viral aerosol sampling. Differentiating infections caused by direct contact from those caused by airborne dissemination can be a very demanding task given the wide variety of sources of viral aerosols. While epidemiological data can help to determine the source of the contamination, direct data obtained from air samples can provide very useful information for risk assessment purposes. Many types of samplers have been used over the years, including liquid impingers, solid impactors, filters, electrostatic precipitators, and many others. The efficiencies of these samplers depend on a variety of environmental and methodological factors that can affect the integrity of the virus structure. The aerodynamic size distribution of the aerosol also has a direct effect on sampler efficiency. Viral aerosols can be studied under controlled laboratory conditions, using biological or nonbiological tracers and surrogate viruses, which are also discussed in this review. Lastly, general recommendations are made regarding future studies on the sampling of airborne viruses.

negative: Recent progress and challenges in drug development against COVID-19 coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) - an update on the status Abstract Coronaviruses are a large group of viruses known to cause illnesses that vary between the common cold and more severe diseases to include severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). A novel coronavirus was identified in December 2019 in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. This virus represents a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. The virus is now known as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the resulting disease is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the novel coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic in March 2020. Despite rigorous global containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of COVID-19 continues to rise, with more than 1,948,617 laboratory-confirmed cases and over 121,846 deaths worldwide. Currently, no specific medication is recommended to treat COVID-19 patients. However, governments and pharmaceutical companies are struggling to quickly find an effective drug to defeat the coronavirus. In the current review, we summarize the existing state of knowledge about COVID-19, available medications, and treatment options. Favilavir is an antiviral drug that is approved in Japan for common influenza treatment and is now approved to treat symptoms of COVID-19 in China. Moreover, Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, drugs used to treat malaria and arthritis, respectively, were recommended by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China for treatment of COVID-19. Presently, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are under investigation by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a treatment for COVID-19. The first COVID-19 vaccine is not expected to be ready for clinical trials before the end of the year.

negative: Prise en charge des cancers du sein pendant la pandémie de COVID 19 : le CNGOF se mobilise

negative: Proteomic analysis of chicken embryonic trachea and kidney tissues after infection in ovo by avian infectious bronchitis coronavirus BACKGROUND: Avian infectious bronchitis (IB) is one of the most serious diseases of economic importance in chickens; it is caused by the avian infectious coronavirus (IBV). Information remains limited about the comparative protein expression profiles of chicken embryonic tissues in response to IBV infection in ovo. In this study, we analyzed the changes of protein expression in trachea and kidney tissues from chicken embryos, following IBV infection in ovo, using two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE) coupled with matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-TOF MS). RESULTS: 17 differentially expressed proteins from tracheal tissues and 19 differentially expressed proteins from kidney tissues were identified. These proteins mostly related to the cytoskeleton, binding of calcium ions, the stress response, anti-oxidative, and macromolecular metabolism. Some of these altered proteins were confirmed further at the mRNA level using real-time RT-PCR. Moreover, western blotting analysis further confirmed the changes of annexin A5 and HSPB1 during IBV infection. CONCLUSIONS: To the best of our knowledge, we have performed the first analysis of the proteomic changes in chicken embryonic trachea and kidney tissues during IBV infection in ovo. The data obtained should facilitate a better understanding of the pathogenesis of IBV infection.

negative: Covid-19 y la educación médica: retos y oportunidades en venezuela ABSTRACT On 11 March 2020 the World Health Organisation declared the Pandemic situation due to a new coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome -Coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), which caused the infectious disease due to coronavirus called COVID-19. University education in Venezuela, and particularly medical education, due to its close relationship with the Pandemic, has been severely affected. A review is presented in this article on the available evidence and opinions as regards medical education in the COVID-19 era. A series of challenges are set out which the University may face from the reflection and the establishing of solutions in a context of uncertainty and accelerated changes for the future of Medical Education.The outlook for Medical Education in the country and at world level is uncertain, and although unfavourable at the moment, the evolutionary process not only offers adverse environments, but also the possibility of generating adaptive processes, and the search and implementation of new ways of teaching. This latter, may involve a positive and necessary change for the teaching of new health professionals.

negative: Evolution of a Search: The Use of Dynamic Twitter Searches During Superstorm Sandy Background: Twitter has emerged as a critical source of free and openly available information during emergency response operations, providing an unmatched level of on-the-ground situational awareness in real-time. Responders and survivors turn to Twitter to share information and resources within communities, conduct rumor control, and provide a “boots on the ground” understanding of the disaster. However, the ability to tune out background “noise” is essential to effectively utilizing Twitter to identify important and useful information during an emergency response. Methods: This article highlights a two-prong strategy in which the use of a Twitter list paired with subject specific Boolean searches provided increased situational awareness and early event detection during the United States Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) response to Superstorm Sandy in 2012. To maximize the amount of relevant information that was retrieved, the Twitter list and Boolean searches were dynamic and responsive to real-time developments, evolving health threats, and the informational needs of decision-makers. Conclusion: The use of a Twitter list combined with Boolean searches led to enhanced situational awareness throughout the HHS response. The incorporation of a dynamic search strategy over the course of the HHS Sandy response, allowed for the ability to account for over-tweeted information, changes in event related conversation, and decreases in the return of relevant information.

negative: Age dependent resistance to transmissible gastroenteritis of swine (TGE). II. Coronavirus titer in tissues of pigs after exposure. Coronavirus titers were compared in various tissues of three-day old and 21-day old pigs after exposure to the virus of transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE). Pigs in both groups that did not die from TGE were necropsied at intervals from one to 15 days post-exposure, and their tissues assayed for viral content. Viral titers were much higher in the small intestines of the younger pigs. Viral isolations were obtained from several tissues of the younger pigs but only from the small intestines of pigs infected at 21 days of age. Levels of viral neutralizing antibodies in the serums of both age groups were comparable at similar post-exposure intervals.

negative: Heat-Related Deaths - United States, 2004-2018 Deaths attributable to natural heat exposure, although generally considered preventable (1), represent a continuing public health concern in the United States. During 2004-2018, an average of 702 heat-related deaths occurred in the United States annually. To study patterns in heat-related deaths by age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and level of urbanization, and to explore comorbid conditions associated with deaths resulting from heat exposure, CDC analyzed nationally comprehensive mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS).* The rate of heat-related mortality tended to be higher among males, persons aged ≥65 years, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Natives, and persons living in noncore nonmetropolitan and large central metropolitan counties. Natural heat exposure was a contributing cause of deaths attributed to certain chronic medical conditions and other external causes. Preparedness and response initiatives directed toward extreme heat events, currently underway at local, state, and national levels, can contribute to reducing morbidity and mortality associated with natural heat exposure. Successful public health interventions to mitigate heat-related deaths include conducting outreach to vulnerable communities to increase awareness of heat-related symptoms and provide guidance for staying cool and hydrated, particularly for susceptible groups at risk such as young athletes and persons who are older or socially isolated (2). Improved coordination across various health care sectors could inform local activities to protect health during periods of high heat. For instance, jurisdictions can monitor weather conditions and syndromic surveillance data to guide timing of risk communication and other measures (e.g., developing and implementing heat response plans, facilitating communication and education activities) to prevent heat-related mortality in the United States. CDC also recommends that federal, state, local, and tribal jurisdictions open cooling centers or provide access to public locations with air conditioning for persons in need of a safe, cool, environment during hot weather conditions. In light of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, CDC updated its guidance on the use of cooling centers to provide best practices (e.g., potential changes to staffing procedures, separate areas for persons with symptoms of COVID-19, and physical distancing) to reduce the risk for introducing and transmitting SARS COV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into cooling centers.§.

negative: Broad Host Range of SARS-CoV-2 Predicted by Comparative and Structural Analysis of ACE2 in Vertebrates The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is the cause of Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). The main receptor of SARS-CoV-2, angiotensin I converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), is now undergoing extensive scrutiny to understand the routes of transmission and sensitivity in different species. Here, we utilized a unique dataset of 410 vertebrates, including 252 mammals, to study cross-species conservation of ACE2 and its likelihood to function as a SARS-CoV-2 receptor. We designed a five-category ranking score based on the conservation properties of 25 amino acids important for the binding between receptor and virus, classifying all species from very high to very low. Only mammals fell into the medium to very high categories, and only catarrhine primates in the very high category, suggesting that they are at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection. We employed a protein structural analysis to qualitatively assess whether amino acid changes at variable residues would be likely to disrupt ACE2/SARS-CoV-2 binding, and found the number of predicted unfavorable changes significantly correlated with the binding score. Extending this analysis to human population data, we found only rare (<0.1%) variants in 10/25 binding sites. In addition, we observed evidence of positive selection in ACE2 in multiple species, including bats. Utilized appropriately, our results may lead to the identification of intermediate host species for SARS-CoV-2, justify the selection of animal models of COVID-19, and assist the conservation of animals both in native habitats and in human care.

negative: Effect of whole-body mild-cold exposure on arterial stiffness and central haemodynamics: a randomised, cross-over trial in healthy men and women. Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index (AIx) are independent predictors of cardiovascular risk and mortality, but little is known about the effect of air temperature changes on these variables. Our study investigated the effect of exposure to whole-body mild-cold on measures of arterial stiffness (aortic and brachial PWV), and on central haemodynamics [including augmented pressure (AP), AIx], and aortic reservoir components [including reservoir and excess pressures (P ex)]. Sixteen healthy volunteers (10 men, age 43 ± 19 years; mean ± SD) were randomised to be studied under conditions of 12 °C (mild-cold) and 21 °C (control) on separate days. Supine resting measures were taken at baseline (ambient temperature) and after 10, 30, and 60 min exposure to each experimental condition in a climate chamber. There was no significant change in brachial blood pressure between mild-cold and control conditions. However, compared to control, AP [+2 mmHg, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.36-4.36; p = 0.01] and AIx (+6 %, 95 % CI 1.24-10.1; p = 0.02) increased, and time to maximum P ex (a component of reservoir function related to timing of peak aortic in-flow) decreased (-7 ms, 95 % CI -15.4 to 2.03; p = 0.01) compared to control. Yet there was no significant change in aortic PWV (+0.04 m/s, 95 % CI -0.47 to 0.55; p = 0.87) or brachial PWV (+0.36 m/s; -0.41 to 1.12; p = 0.35) between conditions. We conclude that mild-cold exposure increases central haemodynamic stress and alters timing of peak aortic in-flow without differentially affecting arterial stiffness.

negative: Understanding the fate of corona virus transmission using a simple model We propose a simple model for understanding the kinetics of corona virus transmission. Our model assume spreading of corona virus can happen from one to another only, if someone without enough protection comes close contact to a person carrying the corona virus. Therefore this virus spreads on a large scale within a short time through chains of such events. Using our model we provide an estimation of the number of people affected by this virus within reasonable duration of time. We choose values of different parameters of our model by non-linear least square fit of the real time data and we predict fate of this corona virus transmission using our model.

negative: CT Scans of Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pneumonia Rationale: The increasing speed of confirmed 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases is striking in China. The purpose of this study is to summarize the outcomes of patients with novel COVID-19 pneumonia (NCP) at our institution. Methods: In this single-center study, we retrospectively included 118 cases of NCP, from January 16, 2020 to February 4, 2020. The clinical outcomes were monitored up to February 11, 2020. The outcomes of NCP patients were phase summarized at our institution. Three kinds of responses to clinical treatment were defined and evaluated: 1) good, symptoms continually improved; 2) fair, symptoms not improved or relapsed; 3) poor, symptoms aggravated. The risk factors, including basal clinical characteristics, CT imaging features, and follow-up CT changes (no change, progress, and improvement) related to poor/fair outcomes, were also investigated. Results: Six patients were improved to no-emergency type, 2 remained the same, and 2 progressed to fatal type. Besides, 13 patients progressed from the common type group to the emergency group (3 in fatal type and 10 in severe type). Forty-two (35.6%) patients were discharged with a median hospital stay of 9.5 days (range, 4.0-15.0 days). Thus, the numbers in different responses were, 73 patients in good response group (4 emergency cases, 69 no-emergency cases), 28 in fair response group (3 emergency cases, 25 no-emergency cases), and 17 in poor response group (3 emergency cases, 14 no-emergency cases). No patient has died in our hospital to date. The median duration of progress observed from CT scans was 6 days (range, 2-14 days). The progression in abnormal imaging findings indicate a poor/fair response, whereas the alleviated symptoms seen from CT suggest a good response. Conclusion: Most cases are no-emergency type and have a favorable response to clinical treatment. Follow-up CT changes during the treatment can help evaluate the treatment response of patients with NCP.

negative: Highly ACE2 Expression in Pancreas May Cause Pancreas Damage After SARS-CoV-2 Infection The ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) started in the end of 2019 in China has triggered a global public health crisis. Previous studies have shown that SARS-CoV-2 infects cells by binding angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which is the same as SARS-CoV. The expression and distribution of ACE2 in the pancreas are unknown. At the same time, the injury of pancreas after SARS-CoV-2 infection has not been concerned. Here, we collected public datasets (bulk RNA-seq and single-cell RNA-seq) to indicate the expression and the distribution of ACE2 in pancreas (in both exocrine glands and islets). And further, clinical data including mild and severe patients with COVID-19 demonstrated there existed mild pancreatitis. In the 67 severe cases, 11 patients (16.41%) showed elevated levels of both amylase and lipase, and 5 patients (7.46%) showed imaging alterations. Only one patient (1.85%) showed elevated levels of both amylase and lipase in 54 mild cases, without imaging changes. Our study revealed the phenomenon and possible cause of mild pancreatic injury in patients with COVID-19. This suggests that pancreatitis after SARS-CoV-2 infection should also be paid attention in clinical work.

negative: Responding to COVID-19: What’s the Problem? This commentary argues that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic should be considered as a transdisciplinary societal challenge that requires coordinated systemic thinking and actions in the context of uncertainty. Responses to the propagation of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and the health, economic and social impacts of Covid-19 are complex, emergent and unpredictable. We describe the virtuous relations between three prerequisite conditions—multilevel governance, knowledge and types of resources and individual and collective behaviours—that should be combined in transdisciplinary responses.

negative: Chapter 27 Emergence and Reemergence of Viral Zoonotic Diseases: Concepts and Factors of Emerging and Reemerging Globalization of Health Threats Abstract The unpredictable emergence of new zoonotic diseases with viral etiology is currently a hot issue in the scientific and political circles. Viral emergence and reemergence, as a sanitary event, are only the visible part of the iceberg, while the hidden one corresponds to a multitude of complex and interrelated factors, including societal and environmental factors favoring the advent of the state of viral emergence and reemergence. According to the World Health Organization, 60% of the agents recognized as human pathogens come from the animal kingdom, and 75% of the pathogens responsible for emerging and reemerging animal diseases present a potential transgression of interface between interspecies establishing favorable conditions for genetic exchange leading to the emergence of new highly pathogenic variants and strains of which the animal is often the host reservoir. Therefore any public health prophylactic strategy requires a holistic approach to the health problem, taking into account the interaction between the triad elements of the human, animal, and environment. This globalized approach has been realized by the international community through the new recently established concept of “One Health, One World,” making the old bipolar concept of separated human and animal health issues avoided and obsolete. The extreme diversity of emerging and reemerging viral pathogens, the change of human lifestyle, the globalization of travel, business exchanges, and tourism potentiate the risk of emergence of highly pathogenic zoonotic diseases. Promoting intersectorial collaboration will allow to unify the health and safety policies. The cross-cutting ecological and health data at the national and global scales are effective means for sustaining good health in human, animal, and ecosystem (in particular the viral ecology).

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic: Important considerations for contact lens practitioners A novel coronavirus (CoV), the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus - 2 (SARS-CoV-2), results in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As information concerning the COVID-19 disease continues to evolve, patients look to their eye care practitioners for accurate eye health guidance. There is currently no evidence to suggest an increased risk of contracting COVID-19 through contact lens (CL) wear compared to spectacle lens wear and no scientific evidence that wearing standard prescription spectacles provides protection against COVID-19 or other viral transmissions. During the pandemic there will potentially be significant changes in access to local eyecare. Thus, it is imperative CL wearers are reminded of the steps they should follow to minimise their risk of complications, to reduce their need to leave isolation and seek care. Management of adverse events should be retained within optometric systems if possible, to minimise the impact on the wider healthcare service, which will be stretched. Optimal CL care behaviours should be the same as those under normal circumstances, which include appropriate hand washing (thoroughly with soap and water) and drying (with paper towels) before both CL application and removal. Daily CL cleaning and correct case care for reusable CL should be followed according to appropriate guidelines, and CL exposure to water must be avoided. Where the availability of local clinical care is restricted, practitioners should consider advising patients to reduce or eliminate sleeping in their CL (where patients have the appropriate knowledge about correct daily care and access to suitable lens-care products) or consider the option of moving patients to daily disposable lenses (where patients have appropriate lens supplies available). Patients should also avoid touching their face, including their eyes, nose and mouth, with unwashed hands and avoid CL wear altogether if unwell (particularly with any cold or flu-like symptoms).

negative: Systematic Comparison of Two Animal-to-Human Transmitted Human Coronaviruses: SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV After the outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in the world in 2003, human coronaviruses (HCoVs) have been reported as pathogens that cause severe symptoms in respiratory tract infections. Recently, a new emerged HCoV isolated from the respiratory epithelium of unexplained pneumonia patients in the Wuhan seafood market caused a major disease outbreak and has been named the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). This virus causes acute lung symptoms, leading to a condition that has been named as “coronavirus disease 2019” (COVID-19). The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and of SARS-CoV caused widespread fear and concern and has threatened global health security. There are some similarities and differences in the epidemiology and clinical features between these two viruses and diseases that are caused by these viruses. The goal of this work is to systematically review and compare between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in the context of their virus incubation, originations, diagnosis and treatment methods, genomic and proteomic sequences, and pathogenic mechanisms.

negative: The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.

negative: Computational analysis of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 surveillance by wastewater-based epidemiology locally and globally: Feasibility, economy, opportunities and challenges Abstract With the economic and practical limits of medical screening for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 coming sharply into focus worldwide, scientists are turning now to wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) as a potential tool for assessing and managing the pandemic. We employed computational analysis and modeling to examine the feasibility, economy, opportunities and challenges of enumerating active coronavirus infections locally and globally using WBE. Depending on local conditions, detection in community wastewater of one symptomatic/asymptomatic infected case per 100 to 2,000,000 non-infected people is theoretically feasible, with some practical successes now being reported from around the world. Computer simulations for past, present and emerging epidemic hotspots (e.g., Wuhan, Milan, Madrid, New York City, Teheran, Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans) identified temperature, average in-sewer travel time and per-capita water use as key variables. WBE surveillance of populations is shown to be orders of magnitude cheaper and faster than clinical screening, yet cannot fully replace it. Cost savings worldwide for one-time national surveillance campaigns are estimated to be in the million to billion US dollar range (US$), depending on a nation's population size and number of testing rounds conducted. For resource poor regions and nations, WBE may represent the only viable means of effective surveillance. Important limitations of WBE rest with its inability to identify individuals and to pinpoint their specific locations. Not compensating for temperature effects renders WBE data vulnerable to severe under-/over-estimation of infected cases. Effective surveillance may be envisioned as a two-step process in which WBE serves to identify and enumerate infected cases, where after clinical testing then serves to identify infected individuals in WBE-revealed hotspots. Data provided here demonstrate this approach to save money, be broadly applicable worldwide, and potentially aid in precision management of the pandemic, thereby helping to accelerate the global economic recovery that billions of people rely upon for their livelihoods.

negative: No evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in semen of males recovering from COVID-19 Abstract Objective To describe detection of SARS-CoV-2 in seminal fluid of patients recovering from COVID-19 and describe the expression profile of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 within the testicle. Design observational, cross-sectional study Setting Tertiary referral center Patients Thirty-four adult Chinese males diagnosed with COVID-19 through confirmatory quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) from pharyngeal swab samples Intervention None Main Outcome Measures Identification of SARS-CoV-2 on qRT-PCR of single ejaculated semen samples. Semen quality was not assessed. Expression patterns of ACE2 and TMPRSS2 in the human testis are explored through previously published single-cell transcriptome datasets. Results Six patients (19%) demonstrated scrotal discomfort concerning for viral orchitis around the time of COVID-19 confirmation. SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in semen after a median of 31 days (IQR: 29-36 days) from COVID-19 diagnosis. Single-cell transcriptome analysis demonstrates sparse expression of ACE2 and TMPRSS2, with almost no overlapping gene expression. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in the semen of patients recovering from COVID-19 one month after COVID-19 diagnosis. ACE2-mediated viral entry of SARS-CoV-2 into target host cells is unlikely to occur within the human testicle based on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 expression. The long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 on male reproductive function remain unknown.

negative: Identification of an infectious bronchitis coronavirus strain exhibiting a classical genotype but altered antigenicity, pathogenicity, and innate immunity profile Avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) poses economic threat to the poultry industry worldwide. Pathogenic IBV 3575/08 was isolated from broilers vaccinated with the attenuated viral vaccine derived from a Taiwan strain 2575/98. In this study, extensive investigations were conducted on the genome sequences, antigenicity, pathogenicity, and host immune responses of several IBV strains in specific-pathogen-free chickens. Sequence analyses revealed that 3575/08 and 2575/98 shared high homology in their structural genes, but not in non-structural accessory proteins such as 3a, 3b and 5b. Despite a high degree of homology in their spike protein genes, cross neutralization test showed low cross protection between 3575/08 and 2575/98, suggesting distinct antigenicity for the two strains. Animal challenge experiments exhibited strong respiratory and renal pathogenicity for 3575/08. In addition, early and prolonged viral shedding and rapid viral dissemination were observed. Immune gene expression profiling by PCR array showed chickens infected with 3575/08 had delayed expression of a subset of early innate immune genes, whereas chickens infected with the wild-type or attenuated-type 2575/08 revealed quick gene induction and efficient virus control. In summary, this study reveals a new IBV strain, which harbors a known local genotype but displays remarkably altered antigenicity, pathogenicity and host defenses.

negative: Climate Change and Geoecology of South and Southeast Asia: An Introduction Climate change is projected to impact human health in many ways including changes in water availability and quality, air quality and sanitation, availability and access to food and nutrition and transmission of vector-borne diseases. Environmental consequences of climate change, such as extreme heat waves, rising sea levels, changes in precipitation resulting in flooding and droughts, intense hurricanes (cyclones, typhoons) and degraded air quality, can affect directly and indirectly the physical, social and psychological health of humans. Climate change and human health have emerged as an important focus of research in the World Health Organization since 2008. However, the First International Conference on Health and Climate organised by the WHO in August 2014 in Geneva recognises the relevance of the impact of climate change on human health from a global-change and health perspective. This chapter also highlights policies of the United States, China and India towards GHG emission reduction and the successful climate agreement in Paris in December 2015.

negative: Public perspectives on social distancing and other protective measures in Europe: a cross-sectional survey study during the COVID-19 pandemic Objectives: The extent to which people implement government-issued protective measures is critical in preventing further spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Our study aimed to evaluate the public belief in the effectiveness of protective measures, the reported implementation of these measures in daily life, and to identify communication channels used to acquire relevant information on COVID-19 in European countries. Design: A cross-sectional online survey available in multiple languages was disseminated on social media starting March 19th, 2020. After five days, we computed descriptive statistics for countries with more than 500 respondents. Each day, we compiled and categorized community containment measures enacted in each country by stringency (stage I-IV). Response collection continued for one week to explore possible dynamics as containment strategies intensified. Participants: In total, 9,796 adults responded, of whom 8,611 resided in the Netherlands (stage III), 604 in Germany (stage III), and 581 in Italy (stage IV). An additional 1,365 respondents completed the survey in the following week. Results: Participants indicated support for governmental measures related to avoiding social gatherings, selective closure of public places, and hand hygiene and respiratory measures (range for all measures: 95.0%-99.7%). Respondents from the Netherlands were less likely to consider a complete social lockdown effective (59.2%), compared to respondents in Germany (76.6%) or Italy (87.2%). Italian residents did not only apply enforced social distancing measures more frequently (range: 90.2%-99.3%, German and Dutch residents: 67.5%-97.0%), but also self-initiated hygienic and social distancing behaviors (range: 36.3%-96.6%, German and Dutch residents: 28.3%-95.7%). Respondents largely reported being sufficiently informed about the COVID-19 outbreak and about behaviors to avoid infection (range across countries: 90.2%-91.1%). Information channels most commonly reported included television (range: 53.0%-82.0%), newspapers (range: 31.0%-63.0%), official health websites (range: 39.0%-54.1%), and social media (range: 40.0%-55.8%). We observed no major changes in answers over time. Conclusions: In European countries, the degree of public belief in the effectiveness of protective measures was high and residents reported to be sufficiently informed by various communication channels. In March 2020, implementation of enacted and self-initiated measures differed between countries and were highest among Italian respondents, who were subjected to the most elaborate measures of social lockdown and greatest COVID-19 burden in Europe.

negative: Comparison of the photosynthetic characteristics of four Lycoris species with leaf appearing in autumn under field conditions The diurnal trends of gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in four Lycoris species (L. houdyshelii, L. aurea, L. radiata var. pumila and L. albiflora) were determined and compared with a portable photosynthesis analysis system. Our study revealed that L. houdyshelii had the lowest light compensation point (LCP), while the other three species had higher LCP (12.37–14.99 μmol m(−2) s(−1)); L. aurea had the highest light saturation point (LSP) (1,189 μmol m(−2) s(−1)), and L. houdyshelii and L. albiflora had lower LSP with the values being 322 and 345 μmol m(−2) s(−1), respectively, and L. radiata var. pumila showed the intermediate LSP. Both the species L. houdyshelii and L. albiflora exhibited a typical and obvious decline in net photosynthetic rate (P (N)) during midday, which was not observed in L. aurea. This indicated a possible photoinhibition in L. houdyshelii and L. albiflora as the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence (Fv/Fm) values were higher in these two species. The minimal fluorescence (F(0)) values were lower in L. aurea and L. radiata var. pumila. The diurnal changes of transpiration rate (E) in all four species presented only one peak, appearing between 11:00 h or 13:00 h. By using simple correlation analyses, it was observed that the environmental factors affecting P (N) were different among four species and the main factors were photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) and relative humidity especially for L. aurea and L. radiata. The results of studying indicated that the four species could be divided into two groups. The species L. radiata var. pumila and L. aurea were more adapted to a relatively high irradiance, and L. houdyshelii and L. albiflora could be grown in moderate-shade environment in order to scale up their growth and productivity.

negative: Remdesivir, lopinavir, emetine, and homoharringtonine inhibit SARS-CoV-2 replication in vitro An escalating pandemic by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus is impacting global health and effective therapeutic options are urgently needed. We evaluated the in vitro antiviral effect of compounds that were previously reported to inhibit coronavirus replication and compounds that are currently under evaluation in clinical trials for SARS-CoV-2 patients. We report the antiviral effect of remdesivir, lopinavir, homorringtonine, and emetine against SARS-CoV-2 virus in Vero E6 cells with the estimated 50% effective concentration at 23.15 μM, 26.63 μM, 2.55 μM and 0.46 μM, respectively. Ribavirin or favipiravir that are currently evaluated under clinical trials showed no inhibition at 100 μM. Synergy between remdesivir and emetine was observed, and remdesivir at 6.25 μM in combination with emetine at 0.195 μM may achieve 64.9% inhibition in viral yield. Combinational therapy may help to reduce the effective concentration of compounds below the therapeutic plasma concentrations and provide better clinical benefits.

negative: Initial evidence of higher morbidity and mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 in regions with lower air quality COVID-19 has spread in all continents in a span of just over three months, escalating into a pandemic that poses several humanitarian as well as scientific challenges. We here investigated the geographical expansion of the infection and correlate it with the annual indexes of air quality observed from the Sentinel-5 satellite orbiting around China, Italy and the U.S.A. Controlling for population size, we find more viral infections in those areas afflicted by Carbon Monoxide (CO) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2). Higher mortality was also correlated with poor air quality, namely with high PM2.5, CO and NO2 values. In Italy, the correspondence between poor air quality and SARS-CoV-2 appearance and induced mortality was the starkest. Similar to smoking, people living in polluted areas are more vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infections and induced mortality. This further suggests the detrimental impact climate change will have on the trajectory of future epidemics.

negative: Experience on radiological examinations and infection prevention for COVID-19 in radiology department Abstract In December 2019, a cluster of patients with emerging pneumonia of unknown etiology were discovered in Wuhan city, China. Laboratory examination identified a novel coronavirus which was tentatively named as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by the World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2020. The WHO has more recently formally named the 2019-nCoV as coronavirus Diseases 2019 (COVID-19). Within one month, the novel coronavirus rapidly spread across the whole of China through droplet transmission and contact transmission, and the reported number of confirmed COVID-19 cases demonstrated a rising trend. Radiological examinations, especially computed tomography CT, were confirmed as effective methods for the screening and diagnosis of infected cases. Reports stated that many radiologists and technologists were being infected when examining patients with COVID-19. In order to clarify the imaging features of COVID-19 and reduce the infection risk of medical personnel in radiology departments, we summarized the experience on radiological examinations and infection prevention for COVID-19, aiming to guide virus prevention, diagnosis and control within radiology departments.

negative: Preliminary identification of potential vaccine targets for the COVID-19 coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) based on SARS-CoV immunological studies The beginning of 2020 has seen the emergence of COVID-19 outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). There is an imminent need to better understand this new virus and to develop ways to control its spread. In this study, we sought to gain insights for vaccine design against SARS-CoV-2 by considering the high genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which caused the outbreak in 2003, and leveraging existing immunological studies of SARS-CoV. By screening the experimentally-determined SARS-CoV-derived B cell and T cell epitopes in the immunogenic structural proteins of SARS-CoV, we identified a set of B cell and T cell epitopes derived from the spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins that map identically to SARS-CoV-2 proteins. As no mutation has been observed in these identified epitopes among the available SARS-CoV-2 sequences (as of 9 February 2020), immune targeting of these epitopes may potentially offer protection against this novel virus. For the T cell epitopes, we performed a population coverage analysis of the associated MHC alleles and proposed a set of epitopes that is estimated to provide broad coverage globally, as well as in China. Our findings provide a screened set of epitopes that can help guide experimental efforts towards the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

negative: [Dynamic changes of immunoglobulin G in convalescents who have suffered from severe acute respiratory syndrome patients]. OBJECTIVE To investigate the dynamic changes of the antibody specific to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus in convalescents who have suffered from SARS. METHODS Samples of peripheral blood were collected twice during the first 2 weeks after discharge and then once every 2 - 4 weeks from 310 convalescents of SARS, 131 males and 179 females, aged 18 - 74, discharged from hospitals in Beijing April 3 to June 20 2003 with the average discharge date of June 10, to detect the level of immunoglobulin G (IgG) by ELISA. A curve of level of IgG was drawn to describe the change by the specific month in the year. RESULTS Most of the 310 convalescents underwent successive or non-successive testing for 2 - 4 months and 15 were tested for 5 months, 15 for 6 months, and 2 for 7 months. IgG was detected in each sample with the mean of A value of 0.97 +/- 0.37 (0.197 - 1.849). The mean IgG level peaked in July (1.203), about 35 days after discharge, and then gradually declined to 0.857 in December, a decline by 27.3%. CONCLUSION All SARS patients generate specific antibody against the coronavirus. However, the antibody level gradually decline with the lapse of time during the convalescence. Long-term surveillance of the change of antibody is necessary.

negative: The effect of opening up the US on COVID-19 spread In response to the pandemic development of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), governments worldwide have implemented strategies of suppression by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Such NPIs include social distancing, school closures, limiting international travel and complete lockdown. Worldwide the NPIs enforced to limit the spread of COVID-19 are now being lifted. Understanding how the risk increases when NPIs are lifted is important for decision making. Treating NPIs equally across countries and regions limits the possibility for modelling differences in epidemic response, as the response to the NPIs influences can vary between regions and this can affect the epidemic outcome, so do the strength and speed of lifting these. Our solution to this is to measure mobility changes from mobile phone data and their impacts on the basic reproductive number. We model the epidemic in all US states to compare the difference in outcome if NPIs are lifted or retained. We show that keeping NPIs just a few weeks longer has a substantial impact on the epidemic outcome.

negative: Environmental chemistry is most relevant to study coronavirus pandemics

negative: Pregnancy and non-pregnancy related immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura in women of reproductive age. Pregnancy is a precipitating factor for immune thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (iTTP). We compared the clinical course and outcomes of iTTP in women of reproductive age, between those with pregnancy- and non-pregnancy-related iTTP. A review of all reproductive-aged women diagnosed with iTTP during 2010-2019 in seven university hospitals in Israel. Of 42 cases of iTTP, 12 (28.6%) were pregnancy-related. At presentation, the laboratory profiles did not differ significantly between those with pregnancy- and non-pregnancy-related iTTP, including hemoglobin (median 8.4 vs 8.0 g/dL), platelet count (12.5 vs. 11.5 X 109/L); and levels of bilirubin (1.23 vs. 1.82 mg/dL), lactate dehydrogenase (1615 vs. 1701 U/L), creatinine (0.61 vs. 0.79 mg/dL) and anti-ADAMTS13 antibodies titer (75 vs. 82 U/mL). The proportions of women with renal, neurologic, or hepatic involvement were similar between the groups. Cardiac involvement was more common among those with pregnancy-related disease (25.0% vs. 3.3%, P = 0.06). The median number of courses of plasma-exchange therapy was 11 for both groups. All the women were treated with parenteral corticosteroids and the rate of adjunctive treatments did not differ between the groups (P = 0.30). Four women (one-third) with pregnancy-related disease had preeclampsia. Two women (16.7%) with pregnancy-related iTTP died during the acute episode (P = 0.07); no deaths were observed in the non-pregnancy-related group. Among reproductive-aged women with iTTP, most clinical and laboratory profiles were similar between those with pregnancy- and non-pregnancy-related disease. However, the higher rates of cardiac involvement and mortality among women with pregnancy-related iTTP highlight its challenging management.

negative: CHILDHOOD ASTHMA IN BRISBANE: EPIDEMIOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS Analysis of hospital admissions for 20 years suggests that there has been an increase in childhood asthma in Brisbane. The characteristic seasonal pattern of asthma with waves in autumn and spring is evident from the second year of age and continues into adult life. It has not been explained, although respiratory infections, allergens and cold changes probably contribute to it. Unlike adults, children shown an increase in asthma in February‐March, ascribed to infections spread at school. Maximal asthma is associated with a mean temperature of 20–21°C. This may be optimal for the production of allergens. Further viral studies of asthmatic attacks are desirable.

negative: Long-Term Persistence of IgG Antibodies in SARS-CoV Infected Healthcare Workers BACKGROUND: The ongoing worldwide outbreak of the 2019-nCoV is markedly similar to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak 17 years ago. During the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, healthcare workers formed a special population of patients. Although virus-specific IgG play important roles in virus neutralization and prevention against future infection, limited information is available regarding the long term persistence of IgG after infection with SARS-like coronavirus. METHODS: A long-term prospective cohort study followed 34 SARS-CoV-infected healthcare workers from a hospital with clustered infected cases during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak in Guangzhou, China, with a 13-year follow-up. Serum samples were collected annually from 2003-2015. Twenty SARS-CoV-infected and 40 non-infected healthcare workers were enrolled in 2015, and their serum samples were collected. All sera were tested for IgG antibodies with ELISA using whole virus and a recombinant nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV, as a diagnostic antigen. RESULTS: Anti SARS-CoV IgG was found to persist for up to 12 years. IgG titers typically peaked in 2004, declining rapidly from 2004-2006, and then continued to decline at a slower rate. IgG titers in SARS-CoV-infected healthcare workers remained at a significantly high level until 2015. Patients treated with corticosteroids at the time of infection were found to have lower IgG titers than those without. CONCLUSIONS: IgG antibodies against SARS-CoV can persist for at least 12 years. The presence of SARS-CoV IgG might provide protection against SARS-CoV and other betacoronavirus. This study provides valuable information regarding humoral immune responses against SARS-CoV and the 2019-nCoV.

negative: CRISPR-based surveillance for COVID-19 using genomically-comprehensive machine learning design The emergence and outbreak of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, has rapidly become a global concern and has highlighted the need for fast, sensitive, and specific tools to surveil circulating viruses. Here we provide assay designs and experimental resources, for use with CRISPR-based nucleic acid detection, that could be valuable for ongoing surveillance. We provide assay designs for detection of 67 viral species and subspecies, including: SARS-CoV-2, phylogenetically-related viruses, and viruses with similar clinical presentation. The designs are outputs of algorithms that we are developing for rapidly designing nucleic acid detection assays that are comprehensive across genomic diversity and predicted to be highly sensitive and specific. Of our design set, we experimentally screened 4 SARS-CoV-2 designs with a CRISPR-Cas13 detection system and then extensively tested the highest-performing SARS-CoV-2 assay. We demonstrate the sensitivity and speed of this assay using synthetic targets with fluorescent and lateral flow detection. Moreover, our provided protocol can be extended for testing the other 66 provided designs. Assay designs are available at https://adapt.sabetilab.org/.

negative: Modeling the impact of human mobility and travel restrictions on the potential spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Taiwan Background: As COVID-19 continues to spread around the world, understanding how patterns of human mobility and connectivity affect outbreak dynamics, especially before outbreaks establish locally, is critical for informing response efforts. Methods: Here, in collaboration with Facebook Data for Good, we built metapopulation models that incorporate human movement data with the goals of identifying the high risk areas of disease spread and assessing the potential effects of local travel restrictions in Taiwan. We compared the impact of intracity vs. intercity travel restrictions on both the total number of infections and the speed of outbreak spread and developed an interactive application that allows users to vary inputs and assumptions. Findings: We found that intracity travel reductions have a higher impact on overall infection numbers than intercity travel reductions, while intercity travel reductions can narrow the scope of the outbreak and help target resources. We also identified the most highly connected areas that may serve as sources of importation during an outbreak. The timing, duration, and level of travel reduction together determine the impact of travel reductions on the number of infections, and multiple combinations of these can result in similar impact. Interpretation: In Taiwan, most cases to date were imported or linked to imported cases. To prepare for the potential spread within Taiwan, we utilized Facebook's aggregated and anonymized movement and colocation data to identify cities with higher risk of infection and regional importation. Both intracity and intercity movement affect outbreak dynamics, with the former having more of an impact on the total numbers of cases and the latter impacting geographic scope. These findings have important implications for guiding future policies for travel restrictions during outbreaks in Taiwan.

negative: The potential SARS-CoV-2 entry inhibitor Outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) occurred in Wuhan and has rapidly spread to almost all parts of world. In coronaviruses, the receptor binding domain (RBD) in the distal part of S1 subunit of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein can directly bind to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). RBD promote viral entry into the host cells and is an important therapeutic target. In this study, we discovered that theaflavin showed the lower idock score (idock score: −7.95 kcal/mol). To confirm the result, we discovered that theaflavin showed FullFitness score of −991.21 kcal/mol and estimated ΔG of −8.53 kcal/mol for the most favorable interaction with contact area of SARS-CoV-2 RBD by SwissDock service. Regarding contact modes, hydrophobic interactions contribute significantly in binding and additional hydrogen bonds were formed between theaflavin and Arg454, Phe456, Asn460, Cys480, Gln493, Asn501 and Val503 of SARS-CoV-2 RBD, near the direct contact area with ACE2. Our results suggest that theaflavin could be the candidate of SARS-CoV-2 entry inhibitor for further study.

negative: Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: What a doctor on the frontline needs to know Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a zoonotic respiratory infection originating from Wuhan, China. Rapidly spreading from Wuhan to all inhabited continents of the world, the World Health Organisation declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2019. Infected patients present with fever and cough; radiological features include bilateral infiltrates on chest x-ray and computed tomography scanning. Management is supportive with oxygen supplementation, broad-spectrum antibiotics as well as careful fluid balancing. A number of drugs, both new and old, are currently in clinical trials and being used on an experimental basis in clinical practice. The COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest worldwide public health crisis of a generation, and has led to seismic political, economic and social changes. This review provides an overview of COVID-19 for junior doctors who find themselves on a new frontline of healthcare.

negative: Revisiting the dangers of the coronavirus in the ophthalmology practice

negative: Probing the impact of nairovirus genomic diversity on viral ovarian tumor domain protease (vOTU) structure and deubiquitinase activity Post-translational modification of host and viral proteins by ubiquitin (Ub) and Ub-like proteins, such as interferon stimulated gene product 15 (ISG15), plays a key role in response to infection. Viruses have been increasingly identified that contain proteases possessing deubiquitinase (DUB) and/or deISGylase functions. This includes viruses in the Nairoviridae family that encode a viral homologue of the ovarian tumor protease (vOTU). vOTU activity was recently demonstrated to be critical for replication of the often-fatal Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, with DUB activity suppressing the type I interferon responses and deISGylase activity broadly removing ISG15 conjugated proteins. There are currently about 40 known nairoviruses classified into fourteen species. Recent genomic characterization has revealed a high degree of diversity, with vOTUs showing less than 25% amino acids identities within the family. Previous investigations have been limited to only a few closely related nairoviruses, leaving it unclear what impact this diversity has on vOTU function. To probe the effects of vOTU diversity on enzyme activity and specificity, we assessed representative vOTUs spanning the Nairoviridae family towards Ub and ISG15 fluorogenic substrates. This revealed great variation in enzymatic activity and specific substrate preferences. A subset of the vOTUs were further assayed against eight biologically relevant di-Ub substrates, uncovering both common trends and distinct preferences of poly-Ub linkages by vOTUs. Four novel X-ray crystal structures were obtained that provide a biochemical rationale for vOTU substrate preferences and elucidate structural features that distinguish the vOTUs, including a motif in the Hughes orthonairovirus species that has not been previously observed in OTU domains. Additionally, structure-informed mutagenesis provided the first direct evidence of a second site involved in di-Ub binding for vOTUs. These results provide new insight into nairovirus evolution and pathogenesis, and further enhances the development of tools for therapeutic purposes.

negative: The pandemic in pictures: how coronavirus is changing the world.

negative: Characterizations of SARS-CoV-2 mutational profile, spike protein stability and viral transmission The recent pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 infection has affected more than 3.0 million people worldwide with more than 200 thousand reported deaths. The SARS-CoV-2 genome has a capability of gaining rapid mutations as the virus spreads. Whole genome sequencing data offers a wide range of opportunities to study the mutation dynamics. The advantage of increasing amount of whole genome sequence data of SARS-CoV-2 intrigued us to explore the mutation profile across the genome, to check the genome diversity and to investigate the implications of those mutations in protein stability and viral transmission. Four proteins, surface glycoprotein, nucleocapsid, ORF1ab and ORF8 showed frequent mutations, while envelop, membrane, ORF6 and ORF7a proteins showed conservation in terms of amino acid substitutions. Some of the mutations across different proteins showed co-occurrence, suggesting their functional cooperation in stability, transmission and adaptability. Combined analysis with the frequently mutated residues identified 20 viral variants, among which 12 specific combinations comprised more than 97% of the isolates considered for the analysis. Analysis of protein structure stability of surface glycoprotein mutants indicated viability of specific variants and are more prone to be temporally and spatially distributed across the globe. Similar empirical analysis of other proteins indicated existence of important functional implications of several variants. Analysis of co-occurred mutants indicated their structural and/or functional interaction among different SARS-COV-2 proteins. Identification of frequently mutated variants among COVID-19 patients might be useful for better clinical management, contact tracing and containment of the disease.

negative: Emerging infectious disease outbreaks: Old lessons and new challenges for obstetrician-gynecologists Objective The purpose of this study was to summarize 3 recent high-profile infectious disease threats that have affected the United States: severe acute respiratory syndrome, West Nile virus, and anthrax. Study design A systematic review was conducted with the use of Medline searches, searches of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention website, and review by experts at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results The 3 emerging infectious diseases pose very different threats: Severe acute respiratory syndrome is a newly identified pathogen that caused an international pandemic; the West Nile virus investigation involved an old pathogen that was identified in a new location; and the anthrax attacks involved the intentional introduction of a pathogen. Conclusion All 3 outbreaks highlight the importance of obstetrician-gynecologists keeping current with new information as it emerges. In this global environment, it is likely that novel disease threats will continue to emerge in the United States.

negative: Genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in Coronavirus Disease 2019 patients BACKGROUND: A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected more than 75,000 individuals and spread to over 20 countries. It is still unclear how fast the virus evolved and how the virus interacts with other microorganisms in the lung. METHODS: We have conducted metatranscriptome sequencing for the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of eight SARS-CoV-2 patients, 25 community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients, and 20 healthy controls. RESULTS: The median number of intra-host variants was 1-4 in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, which ranged between 0 and 51 in different samples. The distribution of variants on genes was similar to those observed in the population data (110 sequences). However, very few intra-host variants were observed in the population as polymorphism, implying either a bottleneck or purifying selection involved in the transmission of the virus, or a consequence of the limited diversity represented in the current polymorphism data. Although current evidence did not support the transmission of intra-host variants in a person-to-person spread, the risk should not be overlooked. The microbiota in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients was similar to those in CAP, either dominated by the pathogens or with elevated levels of oral and upper respiratory commensal bacteria. CONCLUSION: SARS-CoV-2 evolves in vivo after infection, which may affect its virulence, infectivity, and transmissibility. Although how the intra-host variant spreads in the population is still elusive, it is necessary to strengthen the surveillance of the viral evolution in the population and associated clinical changes.

negative: Imaging changes in patients with 2019-nCov

negative: Weathering the Cytokine Storm in Susceptible Patients with Severe SARS-CoV-2 Infection

negative: Prise en charge des cancers du sein pendant la pandémie de COVID 19: le CNGOF se mobilise

negative: A tug-of-war between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and host antiviral defence: lessons from other pathogenic viruses World Health Organization has declared the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. The virus was named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses. Human infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to a wide range of clinical manifestations ranging from asymptomatic, mild, moderate to severe. The severe cases present with pneumonia, which can progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome. The outbreak provides an opportunity for real-time tracking of an animal coronavirus that has just crossed species barrier to infect humans. The outcome of SARS-CoV-2 infection is largely determined by virus-host interaction. Here, we review the discovery, zoonotic origin, animal hosts, transmissibility and pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 in relation to its interplay with host antiviral defense. A comparison with SARS-CoV, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, community-acquired human coronaviruses and other pathogenic viruses including human immunodeficiency viruses is made. We summarize current understanding of the induction of a proinflammatory cytokine storm by other highly pathogenic human coronaviruses, their adaptation to humans and their usurpation of the cell death programmes. Important questions concerning the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and host antiviral defence, including asymptomatic and presymptomatic virus shedding, are also discussed.

negative: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: Built Environment Considerations To Reduce Transmission With the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that results in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), corporate entities, federal, state, county, and city governments, universities, school districts, places of worship, prisons, health care facilities, assisted living organizations, daycares, homeowners, and other building owners and occupants have an opportunity to reduce the potential for transmission through built environment (BE)-mediated pathways. Over the last decade, substantial research into the presence, abundance, diversity, function, and transmission of microbes in the BE has taken place and revealed common pathogen exchange pathways and mechanisms. In this paper, we synthesize this microbiology of the BE research and the known information about SARS-CoV-2 to provide actionable and achievable guidance to BE decision makers, building operators, and all indoor occupants attempting to minimize infectious disease transmission through environmentally mediated pathways. We believe this information is useful to corporate and public administrators and individuals responsible for building operations and environmental services in their decision-making process about the degree and duration of social-distancing measures during viral epidemics and pandemics. Author Video: An author video summary of this article is available.

negative: COVID-19 and pets: When pandemic meets panic Abstract As the novel coronavirus outbreak spreads globally with devastating effects on human health, pets are also becoming unnecessary victims amidst the pandemic panic. Many have been reluctantly left home alone by owners who have been forced to temporarily evacuate their homes. And, although no evidence exists to indicate that they can either transmit the virus or develop its associated coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), fear among the public that pets might play a role in spreading COVID-19 has resulted in pets being abandoned or even killed. This article outlines some of the ways in which the current pandemic has negatively impacted the welfare of pets. It also highlights the relationships between animal, human, and environmental health, as well as the importance of taking a collaborative transdisciplinary One Health approach to help prevent future COVID-19 outbreaks.

negative: Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175–260% (110,000–165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10393-018-1322-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Climate change and viral emergence: evidence from Aedes-borne arboviruses Climate change is leading to increases in global temperatures and erratic precipitation patterns, both of which are contributing to the expansion of mosquito-borne arboviruses and the populations of the mosquitos that vector them. Herein, we review recent evidence of emergence and expansion of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitos that has been driven in part by environmental changes. We present as a case study of recent work from Córdoba, Argentina, where dengue has been actively emerging in the past decade. We review recent empirical and modeling studies that aim to understand the impact of climate on future expansion of arboviruses, and we highlight gaps in empirical studies linking climate to arbovirus transmission at regional levels.

negative: Trend and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak in China By using the public data from Jan. 20 to Feb. 11, 2020, we perform data-driven analysis and forecasting on the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, especially Hubei province. Our results show that the turning points of the daily infections are predicted to be Feb. 6 and Feb. 1, 2020, for Hubei and China other than Hubei, respectively. The epidemic in China is predicted to end up after Mar. 10, 2020, and the number of the total infections are predicted to be 51600. The data trends reveal that quick and active strategies taken by China to reduce human exposure have already had a good impact on the control of the epidemic.

negative: The COVID-19 Crisis: An Opportunity to Integrate Food Democracy into Post-Pandemic Food Systems The world economy is sliding yet into another recession (having arguably barely recovered from the previous economic downturn) due to the worldwide pressures and tensions created by the COVID-19 pandemic.(1) With most countries in the world under lockdown (or in similar situations), almost all food is now consumed in the household. Arguably, agricultural producers and the retail industry appear to be the best placed to weather the storm in order to respond to such a change in demand. However, this is overly simplistic. Recent news of empty shelves in supermarkets whilst dairy farmers have been forced to pour milk down the drain have gone viral.

negative: A chronicle of SARS-CoV-2: Part-I - Epidemiology, diagnosis, prognosis, transmission and treatment Abstract In order to benefit the public, community workers and scientific community, we hereby present a chronicle of SARS-CoV-2 that leads to the unseen precedent of social distancing and lockdown owing to coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Information on this life-threatening pandemic of COVID-19 is sparse and discrete; and the urgency is such that the dissemination of information is increasing with numerous daily publications on the topic. Therefore, we developed a comprehensive review on various aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. We scientifically compiled published research, news, and reports from various sources to comprehend and summarize the information and findings on Coronaviruses. The review explicitly covers the aspects like genome and pedigree of SARS-CoV-2; epidemiology, prognosis, pathogenesis, symptoms and diagnosis of COVID-19 in order to catalog the right information on transmission route, and influence of environmental factors on virus transmissions, for the robust understanding of right strategical steps for proper COVID-19 management. We have explicitly highlighted several useful information and facts like: i) No established relationship between progression of SARS-CoV-2 with temperature, humidity and/or both, ii) The underlying mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 is not fully understood, iii) Respiratory droplet size determines drop and airborne-based transmission, iv) Prognosis of COVID-19 can be done by its effects on various body organs, v) Infection can be stopped by restricting the binding of S protein and AE2, vi) Hydroxychloroquine is believed to be better than chloroquine for COVID-19, vii) Ivermectin with Vero-hSLAM cells is able to reduce infection by ~5000 time within 2 days, and viii) Nafamostat mesylate can inhibit SARS-CoV-2 S protein-initiated membrane fusion. We have also suggested future research perspectives, challenges and scope.

negative: Human coronavirus and severe acute respiratory infection in Southern Brazil. Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are an important cause of respiratory tract infection and are responsible for causing the common cold in the general population. Thus, adequate surveillance of HCoV is essential. This study aimed to analyze the impact of HCoV infections and their relation to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in a hospitalized population in Southern Brazil. A cross-sectional study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital, and assessed inpatients under investigation for SARI by the hospital epidemiology department, and all patients who had nasopharyngeal aspirates collected from January 2012 to December 2013 to detect respiratory viruses (RVs). Viral infection was detected by multiplex reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), with primers specific to the subtypes HCoV-229E/NL63 and OC43/HKU1. The overall positivity rate was 58.8% (444/755), and HCoVs were detected in 7.6% (n = 34) of positive samples. Children below two years of age were most frequently affected (62%). Comorbidities were more likely to be associated with HCoVs than with other RVs. Immunosuppression was an independent risk factor for HCoV infection (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.6-7.6). Dyspnea was less frequently associated with HCoV infection (p < 0.001), and HCoV accounted for 6% of the SARI cases. Three patients infected with HCoV (9%) died from respiratory infection. HCoVs are important respiratory pathogens, especially in hospitalized children under 2 years of age and in immunosuppressed patients. They may account for a small proportion of SARI diagnoses, increased need for mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit admission, and death.

negative: Estimating the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cardiovascular Diseases—Evidence from Taiwan The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US$51 to US$97 per year in order to avoid the increase in the mortality rate of cardiovascular diseases caused by climate change.

negative: Characterization of the Two Overlapping Papain-like Proteinase Domains Encoded in Gene 1 of the Coronavirus Infectious Bronchitis Virus and Determination of the C-Terminal Cleavage Site of an 87-kDa Protein Abstract In a previous report, we showed that proteolytic processing of an 87-kDa mature viral protein from the coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) 1a and 1a/1b polyproteins was mediated by two putative overlapping papain-like proteinase domains (PLPDs) encoded within the region from nucleotides 4243 to 5553 of ORF 1a (Liuet al.,1995). In this study, we demonstrate that only the first domain, PLPD-1, is responsible for this cleavage, as deletion of the second domain did not affect the formation of the 87-kDa protein. Site-directed mutagenesis studies further showed that a previously predicted nucleophilic cysteine residue (Cys1274) and a histidine residue (His1437) were essential for the proteinase activity, indicating that they may be important components of the catalytic center of the proteinase. Meanwhile, expression of a series of deletion mutants revealed that the 87-kDa protein was encoded by the 5′-most 2.6 kb of ORF 1a. Deletion and amino acid substitution mutation studies demonstrated that the Gly673–Gly674dipeptide bond was most likely the cleavage site responsible for releasing the C-terminus of the 87-kDa protein from the 1a and 1a/1b polyproteins.

negative: Impacts of Social and Economic Factors on the Transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China This paper examines the role of various socioeconomic factors in mediating the local and cross-city transmissions of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) in China. We implement a machine learning approach to select instrumental variables that strongly predict virus transmission among the rich exogenous weather characteristics. Our 2SLS estimates show that the stringent quarantine, massive lockdown and other public health measures imposed in late January significantly reduced the transmission rate of COVID-19. By early February, the virus spread had been contained. While many socioeconomic factors mediate the virus spread, a robust government response since late January played a determinant role in the containment of the virus. We also demonstrate that the actual population flow from the outbreak source poses a higher risk to the destination than other factors such as geographic proximity and similarity in economic conditions. The results have rich implications for ongoing global efforts in containment of COVID-19.

negative: Candidate targets for immune responses to 2019-Novel Coronavirus (nCoV): sequence homology- and bioinformatic-based predictions Effective countermeasures against the recent emergence and rapid expansion of the 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) require the development of data and tools to understand and monitor viral spread and immune responses. However, little information about the targets of immune responses to 2019-nCoV is available. We used the Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) resource to catalog available data related to other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV, which has high sequence similarity to 2019-nCoV, and is the best-characterized coronavirus in terms of epitope responses. We identified multiple specific regions in 2019-nCoV that have high homology to SARS virus. Parallel bionformatic predictions identified a priori potential B and T cell epitopes for 2019-nCoV. The independent identification of the same regions using two approaches reflects the high probability that these regions are targets for immune recognition of 2019-nCoV. ONE SENTENCE SUMMARY We identified potential targets for immune responses to 2019-nCoV and provide essential information for understanding human immune responses to this virus and evaluation of diagnostic and vaccine candidates.

negative: Climate change, environmental sustainability and health care quality The challenges for health care continue to grow and in the 21st century healthcare policymakers and providers will need to respond to the developing impact of global warming and the environmental impact of healthcare service delivery. This cannot be viewed apart from the current Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which is likely to be linked to the climate crisis.

negative: Discovering drugs to treat coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged in December 2019 and then spread rapidly worldwide, particularly to China, Japan, and South Korea. Scientists are endeavoring to find antivirals specific to the virus. Several drugs such as chloroquine, arbidol, remdesivir, and favipiravir are currently undergoing clinical studies to test their efficacy and safety in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China; some promising results have been achieved thus far. This article summarizes agents with potential efficacy against SARS-CoV-2.

negative: Stability and inactivation of SARS coronavirus The SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is a newly emerged, highly pathogenic agent that caused over 8,000 human infections with nearly 800 deaths between November 2002 and September 2003. While direct person-to-person transmission via respiratory droplets accounted for most cases, other modes have not been ruled out. Faecal shedding is common and prolonged and has caused an outbreak in Hong Kong. We studied the stability of SARS-CoV under different conditions, both in suspension and dried on surfaces, in comparison with other human-pathogenic viruses, including human coronavirus HCoV-229E. In suspension, HCoV-229E gradually lost its infectivity completely while SARS-CoV retained its infectivity for up to 9 days; in the dried state, survival times were 24 h versus 6 days. Thermal inactivation at 56°C was highly effective in the absence of protein, reducing the virus titre to below detectability; however, the addition of 20% protein exerted a protective effect resulting in residual infectivity. If protein-containing solutions are to be inactivated, heat treatment at 60°C for at least 30 min must be used. Different fixation procedures, e.g. for the preparation of immunofluorescence slides, as well as chemical means of virus inactivation commonly used in hospital and laboratory settings were generally found to be effective. Our investigations confirm that it is possible to care for SARS patients and to conduct laboratory scientific studies on SARS-CoV safely. Nevertheless, the agent’s tenacity is considerably higher than that of HCoV-229E, and should SARS re-emerge, increased efforts need to be devoted to questions of environmental hygiene.

negative: Environmental factors in the summer Olympics in historical perspective. A descriptive approach is adopted in reviewing the probable impact of environmental factors during the summer Olympic Games since their inception in 1896. A historical analytical perspective is impractical due to the lack of reliable climatic data for the earlier Games and the evolution of a myriad of factors that impinge on competitive performance at elite level. Nevertheless, the endurance running events, particularly the marathon, are considered in detail with respect to exposure to environmental forces. Heat, humidity, air pollution, altitude and the geographical features of the race course are considered selectively and dealt with in order of chronology and global climatic zones. We focus on diverse climate zones and particular environmental conditions in order to scrutinize their likely influences on competitive performance, especially in the Olympic marathon races. Notwithstanding the limitations of a narrative approach, performances are related to particular weather data and mitigating influences. Travel difficulties are addressed where these affected a majority of competitors. Environmental stress was associated with the ill-timing and poor organization of the earlier Games. While many of these detrimental and injurious features have been alleviated since then, other environmental stress factors are less prone to mitigation and thus remain a sometimes severe challenge to endurance races. The unique environment conditions for outdoor endurance races in temperate climate zones tend to be highly variable and therefore difficult to predict.

negative: Public Health in Canada and Adaptation to Infectious Disease Risks of Climate Change: Are We Planning or Just Keeping Our Fingers Crossed? Climate change is expected to increase the health risks for Canadians from infectious diseases from our environment, including vector-borne, water-borne, and food-borne diseases. Adaptation efforts will be important to reduce the impact of these risks. Public health systems are in place in Canada to control many disease risks but there are still knowledge gaps on, and modifications needed to, existing approaches to protecting the population from endemic diseases and new or emerging pathogens. This chapter addresses five key questions on whether public health is on track to helping communities adapt to changing risks. The questions address adaptation to disease risk of climate change by exploring the following: assessments of disease risks, methods for adaptation, responsibility, resources, and public action and societal will. Overall, with these increasing risks to the health of Canadians, all sectors of society will need to participate in the adaptive response, while federal, provincial, and community public health bodies will need to work together to identify and communicate risk and promote and coordinate adaptation responses.

negative: Achievements and highlights for Infection, Disease and Health

negative: Behavioural deficits and serotonin depletion in adult rats after transient infant nasal viral infection Abstract Dysfunction of subcortical serotoninergic neurons has been implicated in some behaviour disturbances. The serotoninergic neurons in the dorsal and median raphe project widely in the brain. They innervate the olfactory bulbs and can be targets for exogenous agents attacking the olfactory epithelium and bulbs. We report here an injury to the serotoninergic neurons after intranasal infection in 12-day-old rats with a temperature-sensitive mutant of vesicular stomatitis virus. The brain infection was focal and transient. Viral antigens could no longer be detected 13–15 days after infection. In spite of this the animals, as adults, had a severe serotonin depletion in the cerebral cortex and hippocampus, and showed abnormal locomotor and explorative behaviour as well as learning deficits. The neocortex was histologically intact and parameters related to other neurotransmitters such as dopamine, noradrenaline, GABA and acetylcholine showed no marked changes. A relatively selective damage to serotoninergic nuclei as a result of virus neuroinvasion through a natural portal of entry, may constitute a new pathogenetic mechanism for cortical dysfunction and behavioural deficits.

negative: Zoonoses in the Emergence of Human Viral Diseases Viral zoonoses have represented a significant public health problem throughout history, affecting all continents. Furthermore, many viral zoonoses have emerged or reemerged in recent years, highlighting the importance of such diseases. Emerging viral zoonoses encompass a vast number of different viruses and many different transmission modes. There are many factors influencing the epidemiology of the various zoonoses, such as ecological changes, changes in agriculture and food production, the movement of pathogens, including via travel and trade, human behavior and demographical factors, and microbial changes and adaptation. Cost-effective prevention and control of emerging viral zoonoses necessitates an interdisciplinary and holistic approach and international cooperation. Surveillance, laboratory capability, research, training and education, and last but not least, information and communication are key elements.

negative: Novel human coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2): A lesson from animal coronaviruses Abstract The recent pandemic caused by the novel human coronavirus, referrred to as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), not only is having a great impact on the health care systems and economies in all continents but it is also causing radical changes of common habits and life styles. The novel coronavirus (CoV) recognises, with high probability, a zoonotic origin but the role of animals in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology is still largely unknown. However, CoVs have been known in animals since several decades, so that veterinary coronavirologists have a great expertise on how to face CoV infections in animals, which could represent a model for SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans. In the present paper, we provide an up-to-date review of the literature currently available on animal CoVs, focusing on the molecular mechanisms that are responsible for the emergence of novel CoV strains with different antigenic, biologic and/or pathogenetic features. A full comprehension of the mechanisms driving the evolution of animal CoVs will help better understand the emergence, spreading, and evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

negative: Spatial Visualization of Cluster-Specific COVID-19 Transmission Network in South Korea During the Early Epidemic Phase Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been rapidly spreading throughout China and other countries including South Korea. As of March 12, 2020, a total number of 7,869 cases and 66 deaths had been documented in South Korea. Although the first confirmed case in South Korea was identified on January 20, 2020, the number of confirmed cases showed a rapid growth on February 19, 2020 with a total number of 1,261 cases with 12 deaths based on the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). Method Using the data of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea that are publicly available from the KCDC, this paper aims to create spatial visualizations of COVID-19 transmission between January 20, 2020 and February 19, 2020. Results Using spatial visualization, this paper identified two early transmission clusters in South Korea (Daegu cluster and capital area cluster). Using a degree-weighted centrality measure, this paper proposes potential super-spreaders of the virus in the visualized clusters. Conclusion Compared to various epidemiological measures such as the basic reproduction number, spatial visualizations of the cluster-specific transmission networks and the proposed centrality measure may be more useful to characterize super-spreaders and the spread of the virus especially in the early epidemic phase.

negative: Responses of migratory species and their pathogens to supplemental feeding. Migratory animals undergo seasonal and often spectacular movements and perform crucial ecosystem services. In response to anthropogenic changes, including food subsidies, some migratory animals are now migrating shorter distances or halting migration altogether and forming resident populations. Recent studies suggest that shifts in migratory behaviour can alter the risk of infection for wildlife. Although migration is commonly assumed to enhance pathogen spread, for many species, migration has the opposite effect of lowering infection risk, if animals escape from habitats where pathogen stages have accumulated or if strenuous journeys cull infected hosts. Here, we summarize responses of migratory species to supplemental feeding and review modelling and empirical work that provides support for mechanisms through which resource-induced changes in migration can alter pathogen transmission. In particular, we focus on the well-studied example of monarch butterflies and their protozoan parasites in North America. We also identify areas for future research, including combining new technologies for tracking animal movements with pathogen surveillance and exploring potential evolutionary responses of hosts and pathogens to changing movement patterns. Given that many migratory animals harbour pathogens of conservation concern and zoonotic potential, studies that document ongoing shifts in migratory behaviour and infection risk are vitally needed.This article is part of the theme issue 'Anthropogenic resource subsidies and host-parasite dynamics in wildlife'.

negative: Histophilosis as a Natural Disease Histophilus somni is responsible for sporadic disease worldwide in cattle and, to a lesser extent, in small ruminants, bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis), and North American bison (Bison bison). The importance of H. somni diseases can be attributed to improved clinical and laboratory recognition, combined with the growth in intensive management practices for cattle. Although outbreaks of bovine histophilosis can occur year-round, in northern and southern hemispheres, it is most frequent in late fall and early winter. Weather, stress, dietary changes, and comingling of cattle are likely to be major triggers for outbreaks. The most frequent clinical expressions of histophilosis include undifferentiated fever, fibrinosuppurative pneumonia, encephalitis-leptomeningitis, necrotizing myocarditis, and diffuse pleuritis. Neurological disease occurs either as thrombotic meningoencephalitis (TME) or as suppurative meningitis with ventriculitis. Acute myocarditis is characteristically necrotizing and generally involves one or both papillary muscles in the left ventricular myocardium. Biofilm-like aggregates of bacteria occur in capillaries and veins in myocardium, in the central nervous system, and on endocardial surfaces. H. somni is a component of bovine respiratory disease (BRD) complex. In our experience, it is most commonly diagnosed in subacute-to-chronic polymicrobial pulmonary infections in combination with Mannheimia haemolytica, Trueperella pyogenes, Pasteurella multocida, or Mycoplasma bovis. Other, less common forms of H. somni disease present as polyarthritis/tenosynovitis, abortion with placentitis and fetal septicemia, epididymitis-orchitis, and ocular infections. It is likely that H. somni is under-recognized clinically and diagnostically. Most state and provincial laboratories in North America rely on bacterial isolation to confirm infection. The use of more sensitive detection methods on field cases of histophilosis will help resolve the pathogenesis of H. somni in natural outbreaks, and whether the disease is as common elsewhere as it is in Canada.

negative: Emergence and control of infectious diseases in China Summary Infectious diseases remain the major causes of morbidity and mortality in China despite substantial progress in their control. China is a major contributor to the worldwide infectious disease burden because of its population size. The association of China with the rest of the world through travel and trade means that events in the country can affect distant populations. The ecological interaction of people with animals in China favours the emergence of new microbial threats. The public-health system has to be prepared to deal with the challenges of newly emerging infectious diseases and at the same time try to control existing diseases. To address the microbial threats, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome, the government has committed substantial resources to the implementation of new strategies, including the development of a real-time monitoring system as part of the infectious-disease surveillance. This strategy can serve as a model for worldwide surveillance and response to threats from infectious diseases.

negative: Pre-outbreak determinants of perceived risks of corona infection and preventive measures taken. A prospective population-based study Objectives. Assess how people perceive the risks of coronavirus infection, whether people take preventive measures, and which (pre-outbreak) factors contribute to the perceived risks and measures taken, such as (pre-outbreak) respiratory problems, heart problems, diabetes, anxiety and depression symptoms, loneliness, age, gender, marital status and education level. Methods. Data were collected in the longitudinal LISS panel, based on a random sample of the Dutch population. The coronavirus survey started on March 2, and the data collection ended on March 17 2020. Data were linked with surveys on health and social integration conducted at the end of 2019 (Nstudy sample=3,540). Results. About 15% perceived the risk of infection as high, and 11% the risk becoming ill when infected. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed the following. Older age-groups perceived the risk for coronavirus infection as lower (all adjusted Odd Ratios [aOR] smaller than .058). In total, 43.8% had taken preventive measures, especially females (aOR=1.47, 95% CI=1.27-1.69). Those with lower education levels less often used preventive measures (aOR=0.56, 95% CI=0.46-0.69). Those with pre-outbreak respiratory problems (aOR=2.89, 95% CI=2.24-3.73), heart problems (aOR=2.17, 95% CI=1.49-3.16) and diabetes (aOR=3.10, 95% CI=2.02-4.74) perceived the risk becoming ill when infected as higher than others. However, respondents with pre-outbreak respiratory problems and diabetes did not more often take preventive measures. Conclusions. Vulnerable patients more often recognize that they are at risk becoming ill when infected by the coronavirus, but many do not take preventive measures. Interventions to stimulate the use of preventive measures should pay additional attention to physically vulnerable patients, men and those with lower education levels.

negative: Immunity and age: living in the past? Increasing age is associated with a decreasing ability to mediate effective immune responses to newly encountered antigens. It is generally believed that this reflects the age-associated decline in the number, repertoire and function of available naive T cells. Here, we propose that naive T cells become increasingly irrelevant to the immune system, and that responses to newly encountered antigens are progressively dominated by cross-reactive memory T cells as the individual ages. In addition, we propose that the majority, if not all, of the response to newly encountered antigens in the elderly is mediated by cross-reactive memory T cells. This predicts highly stochastic responses to new infections that should vary between individuals, and has important implications for vaccination strategies in the elderly.

negative: Leveraging a Bayesian Network approach to model and analyze supplier vulnerability to severe weather risk: A case study of the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria Abstract The United States government has identified the health care sector as part of the critical infrastructure for homeland security to protect citizens against health risks arising from terrorism, natural disasters, and epidemics. Citizens also have expectations about the role that health care plays in enjoying a good quality of life, by providing response systems to handle emergencies and other illness situations adequately. Among the systems required to support desired performance levels is a robust and resilient pharmaceutical supply chain that is free of disruption. Shortages of drugs place undue pressure on healthcare providers to devise alternative approaches to administer patient care. With climate change expected to result in increasingly severe weather patterns in the future, it is critical that logistics engineers understand the impact that a catastrophic weather event could have on supply chain disruption to facilitate the design of supply systems that are robust and resilient. This study investigates the main causal and intermediate events that led to risk propagation in, and disruption of, the U.S. pharmaceutical supply chain following Hurricane Maria. A causality Bayesian model is developed to depict linkages between risk events and quantify the associated cumulative risk. The quantification is further examined through different advanced techniques such as predictive inference reasoning and sensitivity analysis. The general interpretation of these analyses suggests that port resilience is imperative to pharmaceutical supply chain performance in the case of Puerto Rico.

negative: Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19): a pandemic (epidemiology, pathogenesis and potential therapeutics) The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is highly pathogenic viral infection caused by SARS-CoV-2. Currently, COVID-19 has caused global health concern. It is assumed that COVID-19 has zoonotic origin based on the large number of infected people who were exposed to the wet market in Wuhan City, China. The phylogenetic analysis has revealed that SARS-CoV-2 has significant sequence similarity with severe acute respiratory syndrome-like (SARS-like) bat viruses, thus bats could be primary possible reservoir. The intermediate host and there subsequent transfer is not known yet, although human to human transfer is widely confirmed. The transmission of COVID-19 infection from one person to another resulted in the isolation of patients who were subsequently given a variety of treatments. To monitor the current outbreak, robust steps have been taken around the globe to reduce the transmission of COVID-19 infection particularly banning international and domestic flights, inducting lockdowns in vulnerable areas, social distancing etc. No clinically approved antiviral drug or vaccine against COVID-19 is reported yet. However, in clinical trials, few broad-spectrum antiviral drugs were evaluated against COVID-19 infection which resulted in clinical recovery. In this article emergence and pathogenicity of COVID-19 infection along with potential therapeutic strategies are analyzed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Atmospheric dispersion modelling of bioaerosols that are pathogenic to humans and livestock – A review to inform risk assessment studies Abstract In this review we discuss studies that applied atmospheric dispersion models (ADM) to bioaerosols that are pathogenic to humans and livestock in the context of risk assessment studies. Traditionally, ADMs have been developed to describe the atmospheric transport of chemical pollutants, radioactive matter, dust, and particulate matter. However, they have also enabled researchers to simulate bioaerosol dispersion. To inform risk assessment, the aims of this review were fourfold, namely (1) to describe the most important physical processes related to ADMs and pathogen transport, (2) to discuss studies that focused on the application of ADMs to pathogenic bioaerosols, (3) to discuss emission and inactivation rate parameterisations, and (4) to discuss methods for conversion of concentrations to infection probabilities (concerning quantitative microbial risk assessment). The studies included human, livestock, and industrial sources. Important factors for dispersion included wind speed, atmospheric stability, topographic effects, and deposition. Inactivation was mainly governed by humidity, temperature, and ultraviolet radiation. A majority of the reviewed studies, however, lacked quantitative analyses and application of full quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA). Qualitative conclusions based on geographical dispersion maps and threshold doses were encountered frequently. Thus, to improve risk assessment for future outbreaks and releases, we recommended determining well-quantified emission and inactivation rates and applying dosimetry and dose–response models to estimate infection probabilities in the population at risk.

negative: The Role of Viral Population Diversity in Adaptation of Bovine Coronavirus to New Host Environments The high mutation rate of RNA viruses enables a diverse genetic population of viral genotypes to exist within a single infected host. In-host genetic diversity could better position the virus population to respond and adapt to a diverse array of selective pressures such as host-switching events. Multiple new coronaviruses, including SARS, have been identified in human samples just within the last ten years, demonstrating the potential of coronaviruses as emergent human pathogens. Deep sequencing was used to characterize genomic changes in coronavirus quasispecies during simulated host-switching. Three bovine nasal samples infected with bovine coronavirus were used to infect human and bovine macrophage and lung cell lines. The virus reproduced relatively well in macrophages, but the lung cell lines were not infected efficiently enough to allow passage of non lab-adapted samples. Approximately 12 kb of the genome was amplified before and after passage and sequenced at average coverages of nearly 950×(454 sequencing) and 38,000×(Illumina). The consensus sequence of many of the passaged samples had a 12 nucleotide insert in the consensus sequence of the spike gene, and multiple point mutations were associated with the presence of the insert. Deep sequencing revealed that the insert was present but very rare in the unpassaged samples and could quickly shift to dominate the population when placed in a different environment. The insert coded for three arginine residues, occurred in a region associated with fusion entry into host cells, and may allow infection of new cell types via heparin sulfate binding. Analysis of the deep sequencing data indicated that two distinct genotypes circulated at different frequency levels in each sample, and support the hypothesis that the mutations present in passaged strains were “selected” from a pre-existing pool rather than through de novo mutation and subsequent population fixation.

negative: The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak from a one health perspective Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 is a new human coronavirus candidate recently detected in China that is now reported in people on inhabited continents. The virus shares a high level of identity with some bat coronaviruses and is recognised as a potentially zoonotic virus. We are utilizing the One Health concept to understand the emergence of the virus, as well as to point to some possible control strategies that might reduce the spread of the virus across the globe; thus, containment of such virus would be possible.

negative: Surveillance and Control of Communicable Disease in Conflicts and Disasters

negative: Safety Guidelines for Sterility of Face Shields During COVID 19 Pandemic Face shields are personal protective equipment devices that are to be used by many health care workers during COVID 19 pandemic for protection of the facial area and associated mucous membranes (eyes, nose, mouth) from droplet spread of infection. Face shields are generally not used alone, but in conjunction with other protective equipment like cap, mask, goggle, and are therefore classified as adjunctive personal protective equipment. In the wake of scarcity of face shields during the COVID 19 Pandemic, consideration of innovating newer methods of manufacturing must be considered to overcome the present day scarcity without jeopardising the safety of front line Heath care workers. All initial fast innovations comes with advantages and disadvantages, hence we thought of putting down simple guidelines for new emerged face shield use.

negative: Network Clustering Revealed the Systemic Alterations of Mitochondrial Protein Expression The mitochondrial protein repertoire varies depending on the cellular state. Protein component modifications caused by mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) depletion are related to a wide range of human diseases; however, little is known about how nuclear-encoded mitochondrial proteins (mt proteome) changes under such dysfunctional states. In this study, we investigated the systemic alterations of mtDNA-depleted (ρ(0)) mitochondria by using network analysis of gene expression data. By modularizing the quantified proteomics data into protein functional networks, systemic properties of mitochondrial dysfunction were analyzed. We discovered that up-regulated and down-regulated proteins were organized into two predominant subnetworks that exhibited distinct biological processes. The down-regulated network modules are involved in typical mitochondrial functions, while up-regulated proteins are responsible for mtDNA repair and regulation of mt protein expression and transport. Furthermore, comparisons of proteome and transcriptome data revealed that ρ(0) cells attempted to compensate for mtDNA depletion by modulating the coordinated expression/transport of mt proteins. Our results demonstrate that mt protein composition changed to remodel the functional organization of mitochondrial protein networks in response to dysfunctional cellular states. Human mt protein functional networks provide a framework for understanding how cells respond to mitochondrial dysfunctions.

negative: The effects of physical distancing on population mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

negative: Awareness, Attitudes, and Actions Related to COVID-19 Among Adults With Chronic Conditions at the Onset of the U.S. Outbreak: A Cross-sectional Survey BACKGROUND: The evolving outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is requiring social distancing and other measures to protect public health. However, messaging has been inconsistent and unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine COVID-19 awareness, knowledge, attitudes, and related behaviors among U.S. adults who are more vulnerable to complications of infection because of age and comorbid conditions. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey linked to 3 active clinical trials and 1 cohort study. SETTING: 5 academic internal medicine practices and 2 federally qualified health centers. PATIENTS: 630 adults aged 23 to 88 years living with 1 or more chronic conditions. MEASUREMENTS: Self-reported knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors related to COVID-19. RESULTS: A fourth (24.6%) of participants were “very worried” about getting the coronavirus. Nearly a third could not correctly identify symptoms (28.3%) or ways to prevent infection (30.2%). One in 4 adults (24.6%) believed that they were “not at all likely” to get the virus, and 21.9% reported that COVID-19 had little or no effect on their daily routine. One in 10 respondents was very confident that the federal government could prevent a nationwide outbreak. In multivariable analyses, participants who were black, were living below the poverty level, and had low health literacy were more likely to be less worried about COVID-19, to not believe that they would become infected, and to feel less prepared for an outbreak. Those with low health literacy had greater confidence in the federal government response. LIMITATION: Cross-sectional study of adults with underlying health conditions in 1 city during the initial week of the COVID-19 U.S. outbreak. CONCLUSION: Many adults with comorbid conditions lacked critical knowledge about COVID-19 and, despite concern, were not changing routines or plans. Noted disparities suggest that greater public health efforts may be needed to mobilize the most vulnerable communities. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institutes of Health.

negative: Uncertainties about the transmission routes of 2019 novel coronavirus

negative: [Management and clinical thinking of Coronavirus Disease 2019]. In December 2019, the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP, officially named Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) by the World Health Organization) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei, and it quickly spread to the whole country and abroad. The situation was at stake. The sudden and serious COVID-19 epidemic has brought us a lot of urgent problems. How to effectively control the spread of COVID-19? When does the population infection rate rise to its peak? What will eventually be the number of infected patients? How to make early diagnosis? What effective antiviral drugs are available? How to effectively treat with existing drugs? Can it successfully improve the survival rate of critically patients? In response to the above questions, we put forward corresponding suggestions and reflections from the perspective of the infectious clinician.

negative: Topographic Changes in SARS Coronavirus–infected Cells at Late Stages of Infection Scanning electron and atomic force microscopy was used for the first time to view the maturation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome–associated coronavirus at the cell surface. The surface form of the cells at advanced infection displayed prolific pseudopodia that, in addition to the rest of the plasma membrane, were also active sites of virus release. High magnification of the maturing virus particles showed a rosette appearance with short knoblike spikes under both the scanning electron and atomic force microscopes. The final expulsion step of the maturing virus particles seemed to result in some disruptions to the plasma membrane. The cytoskeletal network along the edge of the infected cells was enhanced and could be involved in transporting and expelling the progeny virus particles. Thickening of the actin filaments at the cell edge provided the bending force to extrude the virus particles.

negative: Using Mobility for Electrical Load Forecasting During the COVID-19 Pandemic The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has posed unprecedented challenges for the utilities and grid operators around the world. In this work, we focus on the problem of load forecasting. With strict social distancing restrictions, power consumption profiles around the world have shifted both in magnitude and daily patterns. These changes have caused significant difficulties in short-term load forecasting. Typically algorithms use weather, timing information and previous consumption levels as input variables, yet they cannot capture large and sudden changes in socioeconomic behavior during the pandemic. In this paper, we introduce mobility as a measure of economic activities to complement existing building blocks of forecasting algorithms. Mobility data acts as good proxies for the population-level behaviors during the implementation and subsequent easing of social distancing measures. The major challenge with such dataset is that only limited mobility records are associated with the recent pandemic. To overcome this small data problem, we design a transfer learning scheme that enables knowledge transfer between several different geographical regions. This architecture leverages the diversity across these regions and the resulting aggregated model can boost the algorithm performance in each region's day-ahead forecast. Through simulations for regions in the US and Europe, we show our proposed algorithm can outperform conventional forecasting methods by more than three-folds. In addition, we demonstrate how the proposed model can be used to project how electricity consumption would recover based on different mobility scenarios.

negative: Maintenance of influenza virus infectivity on the surfaces of personal protective equipment and clothing used in healthcare settings OBJECTIVES: The maintenance of infectivity of influenza viruses on the surfaces of personal protective equipment and clothing is an important factor in terms of controlling viral cross-infection in the environment and preventing contact infection. The aim of this study was to determine if laboratory-grown influenza A (H1N1) virus maintained infectivity on the surfaces of personal protective equipment and clothing used in healthcare settings. METHODS: Influenza A virus (0.5 mL) was deposited on the surface of a rubber glove, an N95 particulate respirator, a surgical mask made of non-woven fabric, a gown made of Dupont Tyvek, a coated wooden desk, and stainless steel. Each sample was left for 1, 8, and 24 h, and hemagglutination (HA) and 50% tissue culture infective dose (TCID(50))/mL were measured. RESULTS: The HA titer of this influenza A virus did not decrease in any of the materials tested even after 24 h. The infectivity of influenza A virus measured by TCID(50) was maintained for 8 h on the surface of all materials, with the exception of the rubber glove for which virus infectivity was maintained for 24 h. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the replacement/renewal of personal protective equipment and clothing by healthcare professionals in cases of exposure to secretions and droplets containing viruses spread by patients is an appropriate procedure to prevent cross-infection.

negative: Extreme temperature event and mass mortality of insectivorous bats A mass mortality event involving Chaerephon plicatus and Taphozous theobaldi bats occurred during a heat wave in April 2016 in Cambodia. This was investigated to clarify the causes of the die-off and assess the risk to public health. Field evidences, clinical signs, and gross pathology findings were consistent with a heat stress hypothesis. However, the detection of a novel bat paramyxovirus raises questions about its role as a contributing factor or a coincidental finding. Systematic documentation of bat die-offs related to extreme weather events is necessary to improve understanding of the effect of changing weather patterns on bat populations and the ecosystem services they provide.

negative: Mining and Analysis of Air Quality Data to Aid Climate Change The data science and AI community has gathered around the world to support tackling the climate change problem in different domains. This research aims to work on the air quality through emissions and pollutant concentration data along with vegetation information. Authorities especially in urban cities like London have been very vigilant in monitoring these different aspects of air quality and reliable sources of big data are available in this domain. This study aims to mine and collate this information spread all over the place in different formats into usable knowledge base on which further data analysis and powerful Machine Learning approaches can be built to extract strong evidences useful in building better policies around climate change.

negative: A systems approach to natural disaster resilience Abstract The frequency, social, and economic impacts of natural disasters show exponential increases in recent decades. Cities and countries around the world have begun to realize that these events are no longer “hundred year” storms, but repeat within a few years. As urbanisation continues throughout this century, more and more people and more economic activity will be concentrated in at-risk areas; especially as new arrivals in cities throughout Asia and Africa are likely to be concentrated in the highest risk districts, much as they often are in North America and Europe today. This article reviews recent growth of natural disasters and considers how a systems approach can improve approaches to mitigation and adaptation of these risks and to recovery from such events.

negative: The interconnected and cross-border nature of risks posed by infectious diseases Infectious diseases can constitute public health emergencies of international concern when a pathogen arises, acquires new characteristics, or is deliberately released, leading to the potential for loss of human lives as well as societal disruption. A wide range of risk drivers are now known to lead to and/or exacerbate the emergence and spread of infectious disease, including global trade and travel, the overuse of antibiotics, intensive agriculture, climate change, high population densities, and inadequate infrastructures, such as water treatment facilities. Where multiple risk drivers interact, the potential impact of a disease outbreak is amplified. The varying temporal and geographic frequency with which infectious disease events occur adds yet another layer of complexity to the issue. Mitigating the emergence and spread of infectious disease necessitates mapping and prioritising the interdependencies between public health and other sectors. Conversely, during an international public health emergency, significant disruption occurs not only to healthcare systems but also to a potentially wide range of sectors, including trade, tourism, energy, civil protection, transport, agriculture, and so on. At the same time, dealing with a disease outbreak may require a range of critical sectors for support. There is a need to move beyond narrow models of risk to better account for the interdependencies between health and other sectors so as to be able to better mitigate and respond to the risks posed by emerging infectious disease.

negative: Inactivation of murine norovirus on a range of copper alloy surfaces is accompanied by loss of capsid integrity. Norovirus is one of the most common causes of acute viral gastroenteritis. The virus is spread via the fecal-oral route, most commonly from infected food and water, but several outbreaks have originated from contamination of surfaces with infectious virus. In this study, a close surrogate of human norovirus causing gastrointestinal disease in mice, murine norovirus type 1 (MNV-1), retained infectivity for more than 2 weeks following contact with a range of surface materials, including Teflon (polytetrafluoroethylene [PTFE]), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ceramic tiles, glass, silicone rubber, and stainless steel. Persistence was slightly prolonged on ceramic surfaces. A previous study in our laboratory observed that dry copper and copper alloy surfaces rapidly inactivated MNV-1 and destroyed the viral genome. In this new study, we have observed that a relatively small change in the percentage of copper, between 70 and 80% in copper nickels and 60 and 70% in brasses, had a significant influence on the ability of the alloy to inactivate norovirus. Nickel alone did not affect virus, but zinc did have some antiviral effect, which was synergistic with copper and resulted in an increased efficacy of brasses with lower percentages of copper. Electron microscopy of purified MNV-1 that had been exposed to copper and stainless steel surfaces suggested that a massive breakdown of the viral capsid had occurred on copper. In addition, MNV-1 that had been exposed to copper and treated with RNase demonstrated a reduction in viral gene copy number. This suggests that capsid integrity is compromised upon contact with copper, allowing copper ion access to the viral genome.

negative: 4.25 Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Climate Vulnerabilities and Maintain Ecosystem Services Abstract Increasing temperatures and altered precipitation regimes associated with human-caused changes in the earth s climate are having substantial impacts on ecological systems and human well-being. Maintaining functioning ecosystems, the provision of ecosystem services, and healthy human populations into the future will require integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies. Adaptation strategies are actions that help human and natural systems accommodate changes. Mitigation strategies are actions that reduce anthropogenic influences on climate. Here, we provide an overview of what will likely be some of the most effective and most important mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change. In addition to describing the ways in which these strategies can address impacts to natural and human systems, we discuss the social considerations that we believe must be incorporated into the development and application of mitigation or adaptation strategies to address political situations, cultural differences, and economic limitations.

negative: PCR sequencing of the spike genes of geographically and chronologically distinct human coronaviruses 229E Abstract A reverse transcription nested PCR (RT-PCR) sequencing methodology was developed and used to generate sequence data from the spike genes of three geographically and chronologically distinct human coronaviruses 229E. These three coronaviruses were isolated originally from the USA in the 1960s (human coronavirus 229E strain ATCC VR-74), the UK in the 1990s (human coronavirus 229E LRI 281) and Ghana (human coronavirus 229E A162). Upon translation and alignment with the published spike protein sequence of human coronavirus 229E ‘LP’ (isolated in the UK in the 1970s), it was found that variation within the translated protein sequences was rather limited. In particular, minimal variation was observed between the translated spike protein sequence of human coronaviruses 229E LP and ATCC VR-74 (1/1012 amino acid differences), whilst most variation was observed between the translated spike protein sequence of human coronaviruses 229E LP and A162 (47/1012 amino acid changes). Further, the translated spike protein sequence of human coronavirus 229E A162 showed three clusters of amino acid changes, situated within the 5′ half of the translated spike protein sequence.

negative: Perspectives on therapeutic neutralizing antibodies against the Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 A newly identified novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is causing pneumonia-associated respiratory syndrome across the world. Epidemiology, genomics, and pathogenesis of the SARS-CoV-2 show high homology with that of SARS-CoV. Current efforts are focusing on development of specific antiviral drugs. Therapeutic neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) against SARS-CoV-2 will be greatly important therapeutic agents for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Herein, the host immune responses against SARS-CoV discussed in this review provide implications for developing NAbs and understanding clinical interventions against SARS-CoV-2. Further, we describe the benefits, challenges and considerations of NAbs against SARS-CoV-2. Although many challenges exist, NAbs still offer a therapeutic option to control the current pandemic and the possible re-emergence of the virus in the future, and their development therefore remains a high priority.

negative: The personality types of key catalytic individuals shape colonies' collective behaviour and success Behavioural ecologists often note that one or a few group members appear to shape the collective behaviour of social groups differentially. Our understanding of these keystone individuals is largely taken from meticulous field observations and semi-scientific anecdotes. In this study we experimentally test whether the behavioural tendencies of putative keystone individuals shift the collective behaviour of colonies using the social spider Stegodyphus dumicola. Prior studies on Stegodyphus demonstrated that the single best predictor of colonies' collective behaviour is the behaviour of colonies' boldest individual. Here, we probe the causal relationship between the traits of extremely bold individuals and colonies' collective behaviour by experimentally creating colonies of identical size and personality composition in the laboratory and then adding a single individual of varying boldness (the putative keystone individual). Experimentally adding just one extremely bold individual increased the foraging aggressiveness of entire colonies and altered the total mass gained by fellow group members, relative to the addition of a less bold individual. Additionally, our data suggest that bold individuals are capable of such influence because they catalyse variation in the behavioural tendencies of fellow group members.

negative: Nucleotide sequence of the gene encoding the membrane protein of human coronavirus 229 E The sequence of the gene encoding the membrane protein of human coronavirus 229 E (HCV 229 E) has been determined. The primary translation product, deduced from the DNA sequence, is a polypeptide of 225 amino acids with a predicted molecular weight of 26,000. The polypeptide has 3 potential N-glycosylation sites. Many structural similarities with the membrane proteins of other coronaviruses can be recognized.

negative: Heat-Related Deaths — United States, 2004–2018 Deaths attributable to natural heat exposure, although generally considered preventable (1), represent a continuing public health concern in the United States. During 2004-2018, an average of 702 heat-related deaths occurred in the United States annually. To study patterns in heat-related deaths by age group, sex, race/ethnicity, and level of urbanization, and to explore comorbid conditions associated with deaths resulting from heat exposure, CDC analyzed nationally comprehensive mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS).* The rate of heat-related mortality tended to be higher among males, persons aged ≥65 years, non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Natives, and persons living in noncore nonmetropolitan and large central metropolitan counties. Natural heat exposure was a contributing cause of deaths attributed to certain chronic medical conditions and other external causes. Preparedness and response initiatives directed toward extreme heat events, currently underway at local, state, and national levels, can contribute to reducing morbidity and mortality associated with natural heat exposure. Successful public health interventions† to mitigate heat-related deaths include conducting outreach to vulnerable communities to increase awareness of heat-related symptoms and provide guidance for staying cool and hydrated, particularly for susceptible groups at risk such as young athletes and persons who are older or socially isolated (2). Improved coordination across various health care sectors could inform local activities to protect health during periods of high heat. For instance, jurisdictions can monitor weather conditions and syndromic surveillance data to guide timing of risk communication and other measures (e.g., developing and implementing heat response plans, facilitating communication and education activities) to prevent heat-related mortality in the United States. CDC also recommends that federal, state, local, and tribal jurisdictions open cooling centers or provide access to public locations with air conditioning for persons in need of a safe, cool, environment during hot weather conditions. In light of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, CDC updated its guidance on the use of cooling centers to provide best practices (e.g., potential changes to staffing procedures, separate areas for persons with symptoms of COVID-19, and physical distancing) to reduce the risk for introducing and transmitting SARS COV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into cooling centers.§.

negative: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Background: To assess the viability of isolation and contact tracing to control onwards transmission from imported cases of 2019-nCoV. Methods: We developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the 2019-nCoV outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a 2019 nCoV-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in: the number of initial cases; the basic reproduction number R0; the delay from symptom onset to isolation; the probability contacts were traced; the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort. Findings: While simulated outbreaks starting with only 5 initial cases, R0 of 1.5 and little transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability, the prospects of controlling an outbreak dramatically dropped with the number of initial cases, with higher R0, and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R0 of 1.5 were controllable with under 50% of contacts successfully traced. For R0 of 2.5 and 3.5, more than 70% and 90% of contacts respectively had to be traced to control the majority of outbreaks. The delay between symptom onset and isolation played the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable for lower values of R0. For higher values of R0 and a large initial number of cases, contact tracing and isolation was only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset. Interpretation: We found that in most scenarios contact tracing and case isolation alone is unlikely to control a new outbreak of 2019-nCov within three months. The probability of control decreases with longer delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts.

negative: The value of China-Africa health development initiatives in strengthening “One Health” strategy Abstract Implementing national to community-based “One Health” strategy for human, animal and environmental challenges and migrating-led consequences offer great opportunities, and its value of sustained development and wellbeing is an imperative. “One Health” strategy in policy commitment, partnership and financial investment are much needed in advocacy, contextual health human-animal and environmental development. Therefore, appropriate and evidence-based handling and management strategies in moving forward universal health coverage and sustainable development goals (SDGs) are essential components to the China-Africa health development initiatives. It is necessary to understand how to strengthen robust and sustainable “One Health” approach implementation in national and regional public health and disaster risk reduction programs. Understanding the foundation of “One Health” strategy in China-Africa public health cooperation is crucial in fostering health systems preparedness and smart response against emerging and re-emerging threats and epidemics. Building the value of China-Africa “One Health” strategy partnerships, frameworks and capacity development and implementation through leveraging on current and innovative China-Africa health initiatives, but also, mobilizing efforts on climatic changes and disasters mitigation and lifestyle adaptations strategies against emerging and current infectious diseases threats are essential to establish epidemic surveillance-response system under the concept of global collaborative coordination and lasting financing mechanisms. Further strengthen local infrastructure and workforce capacity, participatory accountability and transparency on “One Health” approach will benefit to set up infectious diseases of poverty projects, and effective monitoring and evaluation systems in achieving African Union 2063 Agenda and SDGs targets both in Africa and China.

negative: Applying principles of behaviour change to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Human behaviour is central to transmission of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and changing behaviour is crucial to preventing transmission in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions. Isolation and social distancing measures, including edicts to stay at home, have been brought into place across the globe to reduce transmission of the virus, but at a huge cost to individuals and society. In addition to these measures, we urgently need effective interventions to increase adherence to behaviours that individuals in communities can enact to protect themselves and others: use of tissues to catch expelled droplets from coughs or sneezes, use of face masks as appropriate, hand-washing on all occasions when required, disinfecting objects and surfaces, physical distancing, and not touching one's eyes, nose or mouth. There is an urgent need for direct evidence to inform development of such interventions, but it is possible to make a start by applying behavioural science methods and models.

negative: A Conserved Histidine in the RNA Sensor RIG-I Controls Immune Tolerance to N(1)-2′O-Methylated Self RNA The cytosolic helicase retinoic acid-inducible gene-I (RIG-I) initiates immune responses to most RNA viruses by detecting viral 5′-triphosphorylated RNA (pppRNA). Although endogenous mRNA is also 5′-triphosphorylated, backbone modifications and the 5′-ppp-linked methylguanosine ((m7)G) cap prevent immunorecognition. Here we show that the methylation status of endogenous capped mRNA at the 5′-terminal nucleotide (N(1)) was crucial to prevent RIG-I activation. Moreover, we identified a single conserved amino acid (H830) in the RIG-I RNA binding pocket as the mediator of steric exclusion of N(1)-2′O-methylated RNA. H830A alteration (RIG-I(H830A)) restored binding of N(1)-2′O-methylated pppRNA. Consequently, endogenous mRNA activated the RIG-I(H830A) mutant but not wild-type RIG-I. Similarly, knockdown of the endogenous N(1)-2′O-methyltransferase led to considerable RIG-I stimulation in the absence of exogenous stimuli. Studies involving yellow-fever-virus-encoded 2′O-methyltransferase and RIG-I(H830A) revealed that viruses exploit this mechanism to escape RIG-I. Our data reveal a new role for cap N(1)-2′O-methylation in RIG-I tolerance of self-RNA.

negative: Genetic evolution analysis of 2019 novel coronavirus and coronavirus from other species The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. However, so far, there are still controversies about the source of the virus and its intermediate host. Here, we found the novel coronavirus was closely related to coronaviruses derived from five wild animals, including Paguma larvata, Paradoxurus hermaphroditus, Civet, Aselliscus stoliczkanus and Rhinolophus sinicus, and was in the same branch of the phylogenetic tree. However, genome and ORF1a homology show that the virus is not the same coronavirus as the coronavirus derived from these five animals, whereas the virus has the highest homology with Bat coronavirus isolate RaTG13.

negative: Mayo Clinic Strategies for COVID-19:Community-Based Drive-Through and Walk-Through Testing Centers

negative: Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 - Singapore, January 23-March 16, 2020 Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), might pose challenges for disease control. The first case of COVID-19 in Singapore was detected on January 23, 2020, and by March 16, a total of 243 cases had been confirmed, including 157 locally acquired cases. Clinical and epidemiologic findings of all COVID-19 cases in Singapore through March 16 were reviewed to determine whether presymptomatic transmission might have occurred. Presymptomatic transmission was defined as the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from an infected person (source patient) to a secondary patient before the source patient developed symptoms, as ascertained by exposure and symptom onset dates, with no evidence that the secondary patient had been exposed to anyone else with COVID-19. Seven COVID-19 epidemiologic clusters in which presymptomatic transmission likely occurred were identified, and 10 such cases within these clusters accounted for 6.4% of the 157 locally acquired cases. In the four clusters for which the date of exposure could be determined, presymptomatic transmission occurred 1-3 days before symptom onset in the presymptomatic source patient. To account for the possibility of presymptomatic transmission, officials developing contact tracing protocols should strongly consider including a period before symptom onset. Evidence of presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 underscores the critical role social distancing, including avoidance of congregate settings, plays in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Field Disease Diagnostic Investigation of Neonatal Calf Diarrhea Diarrhea is a leading cause of sickness and death of beef and dairy calves in their first month of life. Field investigations of outbreaks of neonatal calf diarrhea should be conducted for the purposes of (1) reducing the losses associated with existing cases and (2) preventing new cases from occurring. The appropriate corrective actions are determined by taking a population approach to diagnostics and prevention. It can be difficult to provide solutions to disease outbreaks, but success is more likely if an organized, epidemiologic approach to outbreak investigation is followed.

negative: Chauves-souris et virus : quelles relations ? Quelles conséquences ? On connaît plus de 1 240 espèces de chauves-souris ; beaucoup sont insectivores, d’autres frugivores et quelques espèces américaines sont hématophages. Ces mammifères peuvent héberger plus de 100 virus différents, en particulier des Rhabdoviridae (des Lyssavirus, dont le virus rabique), des Paramyxoviridae (comme les virus Nipah et Hendra), des Filoviridae (virus Ebola et Marburg) et des Coronaviridae (agents du SRAS et du MERS). Ces infections sont généralement asymptomatiques chez les chauves-souris mais le mécanisme de cette tolérance n’est pas encore bien compris. Quoi qu’il en soit, les chauves-souris apparaissent pour ces virus comme des réservoirs et des disséminateurs efficaces ; elles représentent donc un risque important en santé publique humaine et vétérinaire, justifiant la mise en place d’une surveillance spécifique et de programmes de recherche portant notamment sur les mécanismes de l’immunité propres à ces animaux. SUMMARY: More than 1 240 species of bats are known ; many of them are insectivorous, others are frugivorous and some american species are haematophagous. More than 100 different viruses are associated with these mammals, particularly Rhabdoviridae (Lyssavirus like rabies virus), Paramyxoviridae (like Nipah and Hendra viruses), Filoviridae (Ebola and Marburg viruses) and Coronaviridae (viruses causing SARS and MERS). These infections are usually asymptomatic in bats but the mechanism of this tolerance is not yet understood. For those viruses, bats are efficient reservoirs and disseminators. So, they represent a significative risk for human and animal public health, that justifies to set up surveillance of batassociated viruses and research programs about the particular immunity mechanisms of bats.

negative: Bats and Emerging Infections: An Ecological and Virological Puzzle More than 200 viruses have been detected in bats. Some unique bat characteristics can explain the roles played in the maintenance and transmission of viruses: long phylogenetic history can have originated coevolution processes, great number of species are adapted to live in different environments, big mobility, long lifespan and gregarious behaviour of many species. To analyse zoonoses long longitudinal studies are needed with a multidisciplinary approximation to obtain the following eco-epidemiological data: colony size, number of bats per species, population structure, behaviour of each species, degree of contact between bats, social structure, remaining time of bats in the colony, colony type, foraging area, turnover rate of individuals, shelter temperature, relationship with other colonies and co-infection processes. These data allows assessing the epidemiological risk and which preventive measures are necessary to take. The structure and functionality of ecosystems are changing worldwide at an unprecedented rate and can modify the interactions between humans and infected bats. There are more or less local factors that can affect the emergence and spread of diseases (environmental alterations, changes in land use, human population growth, changes in human socioeconomic behavior or social structure, people mobility increase, trade increase, forest fires, extreme weather events, wars, breakdown in public health infrastructure, etc.). Twenty-three percent of all bat species in the world are decreasing. How does the regression of bat species affect the dynamic of viruses? The dichotomy between health risk and bat preservation is compatible with a preventive task based on more information and training.

negative: Drive-Through Screening Center for COVID-19: A Safe and Efficient Screening System Against Massive Community Outbreak Kwon KT, Ko JH, Shin H, et al. J Korean Med Sci. Published online March 16, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2020.35.e123. The current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has necessitated the testing of significant numbers of patients. Modeled after those used during a previous bioterrorism disaster and influenza pandemic, the authors present a descriptive report of their drive-through screening center and processes. The authors recommend use of a large parking lot geographically removed from large population centers. Additionally, they recommend either a tent or temporary building to be used for work space and shelter from weather. They utilized a four-step process: Entrance → Registration → Examination → Specimen collection → Instructions → Exit. Patients do not leave their cars during this process. To minimize contact and preserve personal protective equipment (PPE), communication is performed either by mobile phone or electronic medical record whenever possible. Temperature is obtained with a contactless thermometer. If the physician strongly suspects COVID-19 during the examination step, the patient is transported to a designated hospital after specimen collection. Test specimens were collected with the car window opened the minimum amount necessary and car ventilation mode on internal circulation. Patients are provided with information about obtaining test results, home quarantine, and anticipatory guidance. Healthcare workers (HCWs) who had direct contact with patients wore the following PPE: N95 respirator, eye shield/face shield/goggles, hooded coverall/gown, and inner and outer gloves. To decrease viral spread and minimize the possibility of specimen contamination, HCWs wore two gowns and two pairs of gloves for patients who required testing; the external gloves/gown were removed and hands disinfected after each patient contact. The authors reported that this process took approximately ten minutes per test, allowing them to screen 100 people per day with a staff of 4-8 HCWs. This is estimated to be 1/3 the amount of time that a typical screening process would take. The authors recommended rotating staff every 1-2 hours if possible, and to ensure that no HCW wore an N95 respirator for longer than four consecutive hours. They also noted the need to be cognizant of relevant environmental issues, such as hot/cold weather, etc., and to adapt the working environment accordingly. Lastly, there must be adequate communication with the public regarding the limitations of the screening center to minimize the number of people who may attempt to use this resource inappropriately. They recommend considering a similar process for other uses such as medication distribution or vaccine administration. Comment: While not a typical research manuscript we would select for Abstracts, this article describes a non-novel approach to a novel viral pandemic. The drive-through screening process has a number of advantages as outlined above, especially as centers begin seeing higher numbers of potential COVID-19 patients. It is important to consider and plan for the unintended consequences of such a program, including how HCWs will handle unexpectedly ill patients and patients arriving by alternative transportation (bike, walking, public transportation). Healthcare leaders considering a drive-through screening option should also consider the heightened emotions and fear that are present during epidemic/pandemic conditions and plan for security accordingly.

negative: 26 Evolution of SARS Coronavirus and the Relevance of Modern Molecular Epidemiology Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is the first major zoonotic infectious disease of the 21st Century. The disease, originally termed “atypical pneumonia,” was first recognized in November 2002 in Guangdong Province, China, which spread rapidly to 26 countries within 5months and eventually led to 8096 human infection cases and 774 deaths. A previously unrecognized coronavirus, named SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), was later identified as the causative agent of SARS. Subsequent investigation indicated that the source of the human infections originated most likely from infected wildlife animals traded in the live animal markets, with masked palm civets considered the most prominent and important carrier. Large-scale culling of civets appeared to be effective in preventing further outbreaks in the region. Subsequent epidemiological studies showed that civets are intermediate host of SARS-CoV and bats are the likely natural reservoir of SARS-CoV and a large number of SARS-like coronaviruses (SL-CoVs). Detailed analysis of the massive SARS-CoV genomic sequence data indicated that SARS-CoV experienced a strong selection pressure during different outbreak phases in humans as well as interspecies transmission from animals to humans. The spike glycoprotein (S) of SARS-CoV plays a key role in virus–host interaction and hence is a key determinant of interspecies transmission. It has been shown that minor changes of amino acid (aa) residues in the S protein could lead to dramatic changes in virus susceptibility in animal and human hosts. This chapter focuses on the genetics and evolution of SARS-CoVs and SL-CoVs in humans, civets, and bats. The events of SARS outbreaks and the accompanying response activities highlight the importance of modern molecular epidemiology in disease investigation and the urgent need to broaden the screening and investigation of unknown viruses in wildlife animals.

negative: The effects of natural disasters on international tourism: A global analysis Tourism is shaped by a wide range of factors and forces, including exogenous ones that have no direct link with the tourism sector. Natural disasters and unexpected events are prime examples of such determining factors, as they have profound effects on individuals and society, and as a result have the potential to affect tourism flows considerably. Several theoretical arguments exist why natural disasters and unexpected events could influence tourist destination choices. However, empirical research to confirm the nature and extent of impacts of disasters on tourism is lacking. To address this gap, this paper incorporates a dataset on natural and man-made disaster events into a model of international tourism flows to evaluate the effect of different types of disasters on international arrivals at the national level. Findings provide evidence that the occurrence of different types of event change tourist flows to varying degrees. Although in some cases a positive effect is estimated, in general the impacts are negative, resulting in reduced tourist arrivals following an event. Understanding the relationship between disaster events and tourism is helpful for destination managers who make critical decisions in relation to recovery, reconstruction and marketing.

negative: Environmental Conditions Affect Exhalation of H3N2 Seasonal and Variant Influenza Viruses and Respiratory Droplet Transmission in Ferrets The seasonality of influenza virus infections in temperate climates and the role of environmental conditions like temperature and humidity in the transmission of influenza virus through the air are not well understood. Using ferrets housed at four different environmental conditions, we evaluated the respiratory droplet transmission of two influenza viruses (a seasonal H3N2 virus and an H3N2 variant virus, the etiologic virus of a swine to human summertime infection) and concurrently characterized the aerosol shedding profiles of infected animals. Comparisons were made among the different temperature and humidity conditions and between the two viruses to determine if the H3N2 variant virus exhibited enhanced capabilities that may have contributed to the infections occurring in the summer. We report here that although increased levels of H3N2 variant virus were found in ferret nasal wash and exhaled aerosol samples compared to the seasonal H3N2 virus, enhanced respiratory droplet transmission was not observed under any of the environmental settings. However, overall environmental conditions were shown to modulate the frequency of influenza virus transmission through the air. Transmission occurred most frequently at 23°C/30%RH, while the levels of infectious virus in aerosols exhaled by infected ferrets agree with these results. Improving our understanding of how environmental conditions affect influenza virus infectivity and transmission may reveal ways to better protect the public against influenza virus infections.

negative: Assessment of Temporary Community-Based Health Care Facilities During Arbaeenia Mass Gathering at Karbala, Iraq: Cross-Sectional Survey Study BACKGROUND: Arbaeenia mass gathering (MG) in Karbala, Iraq, is becoming one of the largest MGs in the world. The health care infrastructure in Iraq is inadequately prepared to serve the health needs of the millions of pilgrims. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to describe the temporary health care facilities installed and run by the local community to provide health care services to Arbaeenia pilgrims in Karbala, Iraq. METHODS: A survey was conducted in all community-based health care facilities located along part of Najaf to Karbala road within Karbala governorate. A structured questionnaire was answered through an interview with the workers and direct observation. Data were collected on staff profile, type of services provided, use of basic infection control measures, medical equipment, drugs and supplies, and the most commonly encountered medical problems. RESULTS: The total number of health care facilities was 120, staffed by 659 workers. Only 18 (15.0%, 18/120) facilities were licensed, and 44.1% (53/120) of the workers were health professionals. The health care workers provided different services including dispensing drugs (370/1692, 21.87%), measuring blood pressure and blood sugar (350/1692, 20.69%), and caring for wounds and injuries (319/1692, 18.85%). Around 97% (116/120) health facilities provided services for musculoskeletal disorders and only 16.7% (20/120) provided services for injuries. The drugs available in the clinic were analgesics, drugs for gastrointestinal and respiratory diseases, and antibiotics, with an availability range of 13.3% to 100.0%. Infection control practices for individual protection, environmental sanitation, and medical waste disposal were available in a range of 18.1% to 100.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based health care facilities experienced a profound shortage of trained human resources and medical supplies. They can significantly contribute to health services if they are adequately equipped and follow standardized operation procedures.

negative: The Nucleolus under Stress Cells typically respond quickly to stress, altering their metabolism to compensate. In mammalian cells, stress signaling usually leads to either cell-cycle arrest or apoptosis, depending on the severity of the insult and the ability of the cell to recover. Stress also often leads to reorganization of nuclear architecture, reflecting the simultaneous inhibition of major nuclear pathways (e.g., replication and transcription) and activation of specific stress responses (e.g., DNA repair). In this review, we focus on how two nuclear organelles, the nucleolus and the Cajal body, respond to stress. The nucleolus senses stress and is a central hub for coordinating the stress response. We review nucleolar function in the stress-induced regulation of p53 and the specific changes in nucleolar morphology and composition that occur upon stress. Crosstalk between nucleoli and CBs is also discussed in the context of stress responses.

negative: Public Health Emergency Response in Taiwan In recent years, growth of international travel and trade, as well as climate change, has resulted in the frequent emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases such as Ebola, Zika, and MERS. In 2016, Taiwan used the Joint External Evaluation (JEE) tool to evaluate its public health emergency response capacities and understand important areas for improvement. This article presents Taiwan's disaster and public health emergency response organizational structure, real-time integrated information, response processes, and command center structure. After reviewing the results of the JEE tool and drawing lessons from emergency response efforts in the United States, we provide 3 recommendations that may enhance Taiwan's public health emergency response capacities: establish common principles for disaster response regardless of which agency is in charge, standardize operation procedures, and perform regular training that includes nongovernmental organizations and a range of government departments.

negative: Keeping the Country Positive during the COVID 19 Pandemic: Evidence from India

negative: COVID-19 (Novel Coronavirus 2019) - recent trends. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued a warning that, although the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from Wuhan City (China), is not pandemic, it should be contained to prevent the global spread. The COVID-19 virus was known earlier as 2019-nCoV. As of 12 February 2020, WHO reported 45,171 cases and 1115 deaths related to COVID-19. COVID-19 is similar to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) virus in its pathogenicity, clinical spectrum, and epidemiology. Comparison of the genome sequences of COVID-19, SARS-CoV, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) showed that COVID-19 has a better sequence identity with SARS-CoV compared to MERS CoV. However, the amino acid sequence of COVID-19 differs from other coronaviruses specifically in the regions of 1ab polyprotein and surface glycoprotein or S-protein. Although several animals have been speculated to be a reservoir for COVID-19, no animal reservoir has been already confirmed. COVID-19 causes COVID-19 disease that has similar symptoms as SARS-CoV. Studies suggest that the human receptor for COVID-19 may be angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor similar to that of SARS-CoV. The nucleocapsid (N) protein of COVID-19 has nearly 90% amino acid sequence identity with SARS-CoV. The N protein antibodies of SARS-CoV may cross react with COVID-19 but may not provide cross-immunity. In a similar fashion to SARS-CoV, the N protein of COVID-19 may play an important role in suppressing the RNA interference (RNAi) to overcome the host defense. This mini-review aims at investigating the most recent trend of COVID-19.

negative: [Pathological changes of the spleen in ten patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) by postmortem needle autopsy] Objective: To study the pathological changes of the spleen in patients with COVID-19 and to analyze the relationship between the weakened immune system and splenic lesions. Methods: Postmortem needle autopsies from the spleen were carried out on 10 patients who died from COVID-19 in Wuhan. Routine hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining was used to observe the pathological changes. The changes of lymphocytes were studied further with immunohistochemistry.RT-PCR was used to detect 2019-nCoV RNA in the spleen. In addition,the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) was detected by in situ hybridization, and coronavirus particles were detected by transmission electron microscopy in 2 cases. Results: There were 7 males and 3 females, with an average age of 68.3 years.Of the 10 cases, 4 had cancer history and another 4 had other underlying diseases respectively.Cough, fever, malaise and dyspnea were the main clinical symptoms.The time from onset to death was 15-45 days.Ten cases patients had normal or slight increase in peripheral blood leukocyte count in the early stage of the disease, 6 cases had significant increase before death. Five patients' peripheral blood lymphocyte count decreased in the early stage of the disease, and 10 patients' peripheral blood lymphocyte count decreased significantly before the disease progressed or died. Seven cases were treated with corticosteroid (methylprednisolone ≤40 mg/d, not more than 5 days). Histopathological examination showed that the cell composition of the spleen decreased, white pulp atrophied at different levels, meanwhile lymphoid follicles decreased or absent;in addition, the ratio of red pulp to white pulp increased with varying degrees. In 7 cases, more neutrophil infiltration was found, and in 5 cases, scattered plasma cell infiltration was found. Macrophage proliferation and hemophagocytic phenomena in a few cells were found in a case. Meanwhile, necrosis and lymphocyte apoptosis were detected in 2 cases, small artery thrombosis and spleen infarction in 1 case, and fungal infection in 1 case. The results of immunohistochemistry showed that the T and B lymphocyte components of the spleen in all cases decreased in varying degrees. CD20(+) B cells were found to accumulate in the lymphoid sheath around the splenic artery in 8 cases. However, CD20 and CD21 immunostaining in 2 cases showed that the number of white pulp was almost normal, and splenic nodules were atrophic. CD3(+), CD4(+) and CD8(+)T cells were decreased. In 9 cases,CD68(+) macrophages were no significant changes in the distribution and quantity. While more CD68(+) cells were found in the medullary sinuses of 1 case (related to fungal infection). Few CD56(+) cells were found. EBV was negative by in situ hybridization. RT-PCR was used to detect the nucleic acid of 2019-nCoV. One of 10 cases was positive, 39 years old,who was the youngest patient in this group, and the other 9 cases were negative. Coronavirus particles were found in the cytoplasm of macrophage under electron microscope in 2 cases. Conclusions: The death of COVID-19 occurs mainly in the elderly, and some cases have no underlying diseases. Spleen may be one of the organs directly attacked by the virus in some patients who died from COVID-19. T and B lymphocyte in the spleen decrease in varying degrees, lymphoid follicles are atrophied, decreased or absent, and the number of NK cells do not change significantly. And the pathological changes of the spleen are not related to the use of low dose corticosteroid, which may be related to the direct attack of virus and the attack of immune system on its own tissues.

negative: Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma using a Coronavirus Antigen Microarray The current practice for diagnosis of COVID-19, based on SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing of pharyngeal or respiratory specimens in a symptomatic patient at high epidemiologic risk, likely underestimates the true prevalence of infection. Serologic methods can more accurately estimate the disease burden by detecting infections missed by the limited testing performed to date. Here, we describe the validation of a coronavirus antigen microarray containing immunologically significant antigens from SARS-CoV-2, in addition to SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, common human coronavirus strains, and other common respiratory viruses. A comparison of antibody profiles detected on the array from control sera collected prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic versus convalescent blood specimens from virologically confirmed COVID-19 cases demonstrates complete discrimination of these two groups. This array can be used as a diagnostic tool, as an epidemiologic tool to more accurately estimate the disease burden of COVID-19, and as a research tool to correlate antibody responses with clinical outcomes.

negative: Emergence of Novel Human Infections: New Insights and New Challenges Abstract Novel human infections have continued to emerge over the past decade. Their presentation, epidemiology, and microbiology have shifted the paradigms of traditional science. In particular insights into nongenetic or paragenetic mechanisms (plasmid mediated), modes of infection have challenged biology. In reviewing the new challenges posed by these emergent events, new technologies promise some answers; however, global health security against pandemic threats, particularly given the uneven distribution of global resources for prevention, detection, and response, remains a critical area of challenge.

negative: Coronavirus threat to Indian population: risk factors, transmission dynamics and preparedness to prevent the spread of the virus Recent novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan City of Hubei province in China infected nearly 70,000 individuals and killed more than 1700 people within a short span of time leading to global pandemic. The disease is now spread to 26 countries in Asia, North America, Europe and Australasia. The virus is spreading rapidly to Asia-pacific and Southeast Asian countries. The disease is posing a serious threat to human population and has devastating impact on public health and economy. So far 3 Indians are infected and India is at risk of rapid spread of the disease because of its geographical location and other favorable conditions. With a poorer global health security index compared to China (India-57 and China-51), any such situation will have worse outcome. In near future there are also possibilities of similar kind of disease outbreak caused by new strains of coronaviruses due to factors like species jump of new viruses, high population density and inadequate medical facilities. In this short review we have highlighted the risk factors and transmission dynamics of coronaviruses that may pose a serious threat to India. We have also discussed about the possible preventive measure our country should take to control any such outbreak situation.

negative: Influence of extreme weather and meteorological anomalies on outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) Biological experiments and epidemiological evidence indicate that variations in environment have important effect on the occurrence and transmission of epidemic influenza. It is therefore important to understand the characteristic patterns of transmission for prevention of disease and reduction of disease burden. Based on case records, we analyzed the environmental characteristics including climate variables in Changsha, and then constructed a meteorological anomaly susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model on the basis of the results of influenza A (H1N1) transmission. The results showed that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha showed significant correlation with meteorological conditions; the spread of influenza was sensitive to meteorological anomalies, and that the outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in Changsha was influenced by a combination of absolute humidity anomalous weather conditions, contact rates of the influenza patients and changes in population movements. These findings will provide helpful information regarding prevention strategies under different conditions, a fresh understanding of the emergence and re-emergence of influenza outbreaks, and a new perspective on the transmission dynamics of influenza.

negative: Structural, glycosylation and antigenic variation between 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) The emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is of global concern and might have emerged from RNA recombination among existing coronaviruses. CoV spike (S) protein which is crucial for receptor binding, membrane fusion via conformational changes, internalization of the virus, host tissue tropism and comprises crucial targets for vaccine development, remain largely uncharacterized. Therefore, the present study has been planned to determine the sequence variation, structural and antigenic divergence of S glycoprotein which may be helpful for the management of 2019-nCoV infection. The sequences of spike glycoprotein of 2019-nCoV and SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) were used for the comparison. The sequence variations were determined using EMBOSS Needle pairwise sequence alignment tools. The variation in glycosylation sites was predicted by NetNGlyc 1.0 and validated by N-GlyDE server. Antigenicity was predicted by NetCTL 1.2 and validated by IEDB Analysis Resource server. The structural divergence was determined by using SuperPose Version 1.0 based on cryo-EM structure of the SARS coronavirus spike glycoprotein. Our data suggests that 2019-nCoV is newly spilled coronavirus into humans in China is closely related to SARS-CoV, which has only 12.8% of difference with SARS-CoV in S protein and has 83.9% similarity in minimal receptor-binding domain with SARS-CoV. Addition of a novel glycosylation sites were observed in 2019-nCoV. In addition, antigenic analysis proposes that great antigenic differences exist between both the viral strains, but some of the epitopes were found to be similar between both the S proteins. In spite of the variation in S protein amino acid composition, we found no significant difference in their structures. Collectively, for the first time our results exhibit the emergence of human 2019-nCoV is closely related to predecessor SARS-CoV and provide the evidence that 2019-nCoV uses various novel glycosylation sites as SARS-CoV and may have a potential to become pandemic owing its antigenic discrepancy. Further, demonstration of novel Cytotoxic T lymphocyte epitopes may impart opportunities for the development of peptide based vaccine for the prevention of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Current status and progress of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia/ 中华危重病急救医学 Recently, the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia outbroke in Wuhan and rapidly spread to all over China and even the world. Because of the strong infectivity and various clinical symptoms, it has brought certain difficulties to the epidemic prevention and control. Currently there is no specific drug for 2019-nCoV. Previous drugs used to treat other coronaviruses may be effective, but further clinical trials remain needed. We reviewed literature on the epidemiology, etiology, clinical manifestations, imaging manifestations, laboratory examination, diagnosis, complications, treatment and outcome of 2019-nCoV pneumonia.

negative: Remdesivir for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 causing COVID-19: An evaluation of the evidence Abstract The novel coronavirus infection that initially found at the end of 2019 has attracted great attention. So far, the number of infectious cases has increased globally to more than 100 thousand and the outbreak has been defined as a pandemic situation, but there are still no “specific drug” available. Relevant reports have pointed out the novel coronavirus has 80% homology with SARS. In the difficulty where new synthesized drug cannot be applied immediately to patients, “conventional drug in new use” becomes a feasible solution. The first medication experience of the recovered patients in the US has led remdesivir to be the “specific drug”. China has also taken immediate action to put remdesivir into clinical trials with the purpose of applying it into clinical therapeutics for Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We started from the structure, immunogenicity, and pathogenesis of coronavirus infections of the novel coronavirus. Further, we analyzed the pharmacological actions and previous trials of remdesivir to identify the feasibility of conducting experiments on COVID-19.

negative: Perspectives on monoclonal antibody therapy as potential therapeutic intervention for Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19). Last decade witnessed the outbreak of many life-threatening human pathogens including Nipah, Ebola, Chikungunya, Zika, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), Severe Acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and more recently novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV or SARS-CoV-2). The disease condition associated with novel coronavirus, referred to as Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The emergence of novel coronavirus in 2019 in Wuhan, China marked the third highly pathogenic coronavirus infecting humans in the 21st century. The continuing emergence of coronaviruses at regular intervals poses a significant threat to human health and economy. Ironically, even after a decade of research on coronavirus, still there are no licensed vaccines or therapeutic agents to treat coronavirus infection which highlights an urgent need to develop effective vaccines or post-exposure prophylaxis to prevent future epidemics. Several clinical, genetic and epidemiological features of COVID-19 resemble SARS-CoV infection. Hence, the research advancements on SARS-CoV treatment might help scientific community in quick understanding of this virus pathogenesis and develop effective therapeutic/prophylactic agents to treat and prevent this infection. Monoclonal antibodies represent the major class of biotherapeutics for passive immunotherapy to fight against viral infection. The therapeutic potential of monoclonal antibodies has been well recognized in the treatment of many diseases. Here, we summarize the potential monoclonal antibody based therapeutic intervention for COVID-19 by considering the existing knowledge on the neutralizing monoclonal antibodies against similar coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Further research on COVID-19 pathogenesis could identify appropriate therapeutic targets to develop specific anti-virals against this newly emerging pathogen.

negative: PhEVER: a database for the global exploration of virus–host evolutionary relationships Fast viral adaptation and the implication of this rapid evolution in the emergence of several new infectious diseases have turned this issue into a major challenge for various research domains. Indeed, viruses are involved in the development of a wide range of pathologies and understanding how viruses and host cells interact in the context of adaptation remains an open question. In order to provide insights into the complex interactions between viruses and their host organisms and namely in the acquisition of novel functions through exchanges of genetic material, we developed the PhEVER database. This database aims at providing accurate evolutionary and phylogenetic information to analyse the nature of virus–virus and virus–host lateral gene transfers. PhEVER (http://pbil.univ-lyon1.fr/databases/phever) is a unique database of homologous families both (i) between sequences from different viruses and (ii) between viral sequences and sequences from cellular organisms. PhEVER integrates extensive data from up-to-date completely sequenced genomes (2426 non-redundant viral genomes, 1007 non-redundant prokaryotic genomes, 43 eukaryotic genomes ranging from plants to vertebrates) and offers a clustering of proteins into homologous families containing at least one viral sequences, as well as alignments and phylogenies for each of these families. Public access to PhEVER is available through its webpage and through all dedicated ACNUC retrieval systems.

negative: Using the COVID-19 economic crisis to frame climate change as a secondary issue reduces mitigation support The COVID-19 pandemic has understandably dominated public discourse, crowding out other important issues such as climate change. Currently, if climate change enters the arena of public debate, it primarily does so in direct relation to the pandemic. In two experiments, we investigated (1) whether portraying the response to the COVID-19 threat as a “trial run” for future climate action would increase climate-change concern and mitigation support, and (2) whether portraying climate change as a concern that needs to take a “back seat” while focus lies on economic recovery would decrease climate-change concern and mitigation support. We found no support for the effectiveness of a trial-run frame in either experiment. In Experiment 1, we found that a back-seat frame reduced participants’ support for mitigative action. In Experiment 2, the back-seat framing reduced both climate-change concern and mitigation support; a combined inoculation and refutation was able to offset the drop in climate concern but not the reduction in mitigation support.

negative: Dynamic change process of target genes by RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2 during the course of a Coronavirus Disease 2019 patient Abstract We report the dynamic change process of target genes by RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2 during the course of a COVID-19 patient: from successive negative results to successive single positive nucleocapsid gene, to two positive target genes (orf1ab and nucleocapsid) by RT-PCR testing of SARS-Cov-2, and describe the diagnosis, clinical course, and management of the case. In this case, negative results of RT-PCR testing was not excluded to diagnose a suspected COVID-19 patient, clinical signs and symptoms, other laboratory findings, and chest CT images should be taken into account for the absence of enough positive evidence. This case highlights the importance of successive sampling and testing SARS-Cov-2 by RT-PCR as well as the increased value of single positive target gene from pending to positive in two specimens to diagnose laboratory-confirmed COVID-19.

negative: Infectious Diseases of the Gastrointestinal Tract

negative: The modelling of COVID19 pathways sheds light on mechanisms, opportunities and on controversial interpretations of medical treatments. v2 The new coronavirus (2019-nCoV or SARS-CoV2), inducing the current pandemic disease (COVID-19) and causing pneumoniae in humans, is dramatically increasing in epidemic scale since its first appearance in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The first infection from epidemic coronaviruses in 2003 fostered the spread of an overwhelming amount of related scientific efforts. The manifold aspects that have been raised, as well as their redundancy offer precious information that has been underexploited and needs to be critically re-evaluated, appropriately used and offered to the whole community, from scientists, to medical doctors, stakeholders and common people. These efforts will favour a holistic view on the comprehension, prevention and development of strategies (pharmacological, clinical etc) as well as common intervention against the new coronavirus spreading. Here we describe a model that emerged from our analysis that was focused on the Renin Angiotensin System (RAS) and the possible routes linking it to the viral infection. because the infection is mediated by the viral receptor on human cell membranes Angiotensin Converting Enzyme (ACE2), which is a key component in RAS signalling. The model depicts the main pathways determining the disease and the molecular framework for its establishment, and can help to shed light on mechanisms involved in the infection. It promptly gives an answer to some of the controversial, and still open, issues concerning predisposing conditions and medical treatments that protect from or favour the severity of the disease (such as the use of ACE inhibitors or ARBs/sartans), or to the sex related biases in the affected population. The model highlights novel opportunities for further investigations, diagnosis and appropriate intervention to understand and fight COVID19.

negative: The effects of injection of bovine vaccine into a human digit: a case report BACKGROUND: The incidence of needlestick injuries in farmers and veterinary surgeons is significant and the consequences of such an injection can be serious. CASE PRESENTATION: We report accidental injection of bovine vaccine into the base of the little finger. This resulted in increased pressure in the flexor sheath causing signs and symptoms of ischemia. Amputation of the digit was required despite repeated surgical debridement and decompression. CONCLUSION: There have been previous reports of injection of oil-based vaccines into the human hand resulting in granulomatous inflammation or sterile abscess and causing morbidity and tissue loss. Self-injection with veterinary vaccines is an occupational hazard for farmers and veterinary surgeons. Injection of vaccine into a closed compartment such as the human finger can have serious sequelae including loss of the injected digit. These injuries are not to be underestimated. Early debridement and irrigation of the injected area with decompression is likely to give the best outcome. Frequent review is necessary after the first procedure because repeat operations may be required.

negative: Evidence for probable aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a poorly ventilated restaurant Background: The role of aerosols in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remains debated. We analysed an outbreak involving three non-associated families in Restaurant X in Guangzhou, China, and assessed the possibility of aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and characterize the associated environmental conditions. Methods: We collected epidemiological data, obtained a video record and a patron seating-arrangement from the restaurant, and measured the dispersion of a warm tracer gas as a surrogate for exhaled droplets from the suspected index patient. Computer simulations were performed to simulate the spread of fine exhaled droplets. We compared the in-room location of subsequently infected cases and spread of the simulated virus-laden aerosol tracer. The ventilation rate was measured using the tracer decay method. Results: Three families (A, B, C), 10 members of which were subsequently found to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 at this time, or previously, ate lunch at Restaurant X on Chinese New Year's Eve (January 24, 2020) at three neighboring tables. Subsequently, three members of family B and two members of family C became infected with SARS-CoV-2, whereas none of the waiters or 68 patrons at the remaining 15 tables became infected. During this occasion, the ventilation rate was 0.75-1.04 L/s per person. No close contact or fomite contact was observed, aside from back-to-back sitting by some patrons. Our results show that the infection distribution is consistent with a spread pattern representative of exhaled virus-laden aerosols. Conclusions: Aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 due to poor ventilation may explain the community spread of COVID-19.

negative: Comparisons of substitution, insertion and deletion probes for resequencing and mutational analysis using oligonucleotide microarrays Although oligonucleotide probes complementary to single nucleotide substitutions are commonly used in microarray-based screens for genetic variation, little is known about the hybridization properties of probes complementary to small insertions and deletions. It is necessary to define the hybridization properties of these latter probes in order to improve the specificity and sensitivity of oligonucleotide microarray-based mutational analysis of disease-related genes. Here, we compare and contrast the hybridization properties of oligonucleotide microarrays consisting of 25mer probes complementary to all possible single nucleotide substitutions and insertions, and one and two base deletions in the 9168 bp coding region of the ATM (ataxia telangiectasia mutated) gene. Over 68 different dye-labeled single-stranded nucleic acid targets representing all ATM coding exons were applied to these microarrays. We assess hybridization specificity by comparing the relative hybridization signals from probes perfectly matched to ATM sequences to those containing mismatches. Probes complementary to two base substitutions displayed the highest average specificity followed by those complementary to single base substitutions, single base deletions and single base insertions. In all the cases, hybridization specificity was strongly influenced by sequence context and possible intra- and intermolecular probe and/or target structure. Furthermore, single nucleotide substitution probes displayed the most consistent hybridization specificity data followed by single base deletions, two base deletions and single nucleotide insertions. Overall, these studies provide valuable empirical data that can be used to more accurately model the hybridization properties of insertion and deletion probes and improve the design and interpretation of oligonucleotide microarray-based resequencing and mutational analysis.

negative: A Sequence Homology and Bioinformatic Approach Can Predict Candidate Targets for Immune Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Effective countermeasures against the recent emergence and rapid expansion of the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) require the development of data and tools to understand and monitor its spread and immune responses to it. However, little information is available about the targets of immune responses to SARS-CoV-2. We used the Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) to catalog available data related to other coronaviruses. This includes SARS-CoV, which has high sequence similarity to SARS-CoV-2 and is the best-characterized coronavirus in terms of epitope responses. We identified multiple specific regions in SARS-CoV-2 that have high homology to the SARS-CoV virus. Parallel bioinformatic predictions identified a priori potential B and T cell epitopes for SARS-CoV-2. The independent identification of the same regions using two approaches reflects the high probability that these regions are promising targets for immune recognition of SARS-CoV-2. These predictions can facilitate effective vaccine design against this virus of high priority.

negative: Anticipating epidemic transitions with imperfect data Epidemic transitions are an important feature of infectious disease systems. As the transmissibility of a pathogen increases, the dynamics of disease spread shifts from limited stuttering chains of transmission to potentially large scale outbreaks. One proposed method to anticipate this transition are early-warning signals (EWS), summary statistics which undergo characteristic changes as the transition is approached. Although theoretically predicted, their mathematical basis does not take into account the nature of epidemiological data, which are typically aggregated into periodic case reports and subject to reporting error. The viability of EWS for epidemic transitions therefore remains uncertain. Here we demonstrate that most EWS can predict emergence even when calculated from imperfect data. We quantify performance using the area under the curve (AUC) statistic, a measure of how well an EWS distinguishes between numerical simulations of an emerging disease and one which is stationary. Values of the AUC statistic are compared across a range of different reporting scenarios. We find that different EWS respond to imperfect data differently. The mean, variance and first differenced variance all perform well unless reporting error is highly overdispersed. The autocorrelation, autocovariance and decay time perform well provided that the aggregation period of the data is larger than the serial interval and reporting error is not highly overdispersed. The coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis are found to be unreliable indicators of emergence. Overall, we find that seven of ten EWS considered perform well for most realistic reporting scenarios. We conclude that imperfect epidemiological data is not a barrier to using EWS for many potentially emerging diseases.

negative: Chapter Three The Nonstructural Proteins Directing Coronavirus RNA Synthesis and Processing Abstract Coronaviruses are animal and human pathogens that can cause lethal zoonotic infections like SARS and MERS. They have polycistronic plus-stranded RNA genomes and belong to the order Nidovirales, a diverse group of viruses for which common ancestry was inferred from the common principles underlying their genome organization and expression, and from the conservation of an array of core replicase domains, including key RNA-synthesizing enzymes. Coronavirus genomes (~26–32 kilobases) are the largest RNA genomes known to date and their expansion was likely enabled by acquiring enzyme functions that counter the commonly high error frequency of viral RNA polymerases. The primary functions that direct coronavirus RNA synthesis and processing reside in nonstructural protein (nsp) 7 to nsp16, which are cleavage products of two large replicase polyproteins translated from the coronavirus genome. Significant progress has now been made regarding their structural and functional characterization, stimulated by technical advances like improved methods for bioinformatics and structural biology, in vitro enzyme characterization, and site-directed mutagenesis of coronavirus genomes. Coronavirus replicase functions include more or less universal activities of plus-stranded RNA viruses, like an RNA polymerase (nsp12) and helicase (nsp13), but also a number of rare or even unique domains involved in mRNA capping (nsp14, nsp16) and fidelity control (nsp14). Several smaller subunits (nsp7–nsp10) act as crucial cofactors of these enzymes and contribute to the emerging “nsp interactome.” Understanding the structure, function, and interactions of the RNA-synthesizing machinery of coronaviruses will be key to rationalizing their evolutionary success and the development of improved control strategies.

negative: The COVID-19 Pandemic Personal Reflections on Editorial Responsibility

negative: The evolving world of protein-G-quadruplex recognition: A medicinal chemist’s perspective Abstract The physiological and pharmacological role of nucleic acids structures folded into the non canonical G-quadruplex conformation have recently emerged. Their activities are targeted at vital cellular processes including telomere maintenance, regulation of transcription and processing of the pre-messenger or telomeric RNA. In addition, severe conditions like cancer, fragile X syndrome, Bloom syndrome, Werner syndrome and Fanconi anemia J are related to genomic defects that involve G-quadruplex forming sequences. In this connection G-quadruplex recognition and processing by nucleic acid directed proteins and enzymes represents a key event to activate or deactivate physiological or pathological pathways. In this review we examine protein-G-quadruplex recognition in physiologically significant conditions and discuss how to possibly exploit the interactions’ selectivity for targeted therapeutic intervention.

negative: Pandemics, regional outbreaks, and sudden-onset disasters Pandemics of influenza, cholera, and plague are part of global history. Regional epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, primarily influenza A, continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality while remaining unpredictable in nature. Sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes and floods occur with little warning. The consequences of climate change and environmental degradation can only be expected to increase the incidence of some infectious diseases and weather-related crises, adding to the unpredictability of such events. Health system leaders, both in public health and healthcare, need to understand the international context and how coordination and response across or within jurisdictions will improve the likelihood of successful management of challenges. Public health emergencies respect no borders or political structures. The ability of institutions to adapt quickly can make a difference in health outcomes and a community’s trust in those institutions.

negative: Comparison of the spatiotemporal characteristics of the COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks in mainland China Background: Both coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) are caused by coronaviruses and have infected people in China and worldwide. We aimed to investigate whether COVID-19 and SARS exhibited similar spatial and temporal features at the provincial level in mainland China. Methods: The number of people infected by COVID-19 and SARS were extracted from daily briefings on newly confirmed cases during the epidemics, as of Mar. 4, 2020 and Aug. 3, 2003, respectively. We depicted the spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 and SARS epidemics using spatial statistics such as Moran's I and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA). Results: Compared to SARS, COVID-19 had a higher incidence. We identified 3 clusters (predominantly located in south-central China, highest RR=135.08) for COVID-19 and 4 clusters (mainly in Northern China, highest RR=423.51) for SARS. Fewer secondary clusters were identified after the “Wuhan lockdown”. The LISA cluster map detected a significantly high-low (Hubei) and low-high spatial clustering (Anhui, Hunan, and Jiangxi, in Central China) for COVID-19. Two significant high-high (Beijing and Tianjin) and low-high (Hebei) clusters were detected for SARS, although the global Moran's I value was not significant. Conclusions: The different spatiotemporal clustering patterns between COVID-19 and SARS could point to changes in social and demographic factors, local government containment strategies or differences in transmission mechanisms between these coronaviruses.

negative: Chapter 15 Biology and Diseases of Ruminants (Sheep, Goats, and Cattle) Ruminants continue to be important in their traditional role in agricultural research and teaching. They are now also extensively used for studies in molecular biology; genetic engineering; and biotechnology for basic science, agricultural and clinical applications. Concern and interest for the welfare for these species and improved understanding of their biology and behavior have continued and are reflected in changing husbandry and management systems. This chapter addresses at high levels basic biology, husbandry, and the more common or important diseases of the three ruminant species used most commonly in the laboratory, namely sheep, goats and cattle.

negative: Novel coronavirus in a 15-day-old neonate with clinical signs of sepsis, a case report Introduction: Novel coronavirus or coronavirus disease (COVID-19) can affect all age groups. The clinical course of the disease in children and infants is milder than in adults. It should be noted that, although typical symptoms may be present in children, non-specific symptoms could be noted in the neonate. The disease is rare in the neonate, so, its suspicion in this group can help to make a quick diagnose. Case report: A 15-day-old neonate was admitted with fever, lethargy, cutaneous mottling, and respiratory distress without cough. His mother had symptoms of Novel coronavirus. So Reverse-Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) assay was done for the neonate and showed to be positive. The newborn was isolated and subjected to supportive care. Antibiotic and antiviral treatment was initiated. Eventually, the baby was discharged in good general condition. Conclusion: When a newborn presents with non-specific symptoms of infection with an added history of COVID-19 in his/her parents, it indicates the need for PCR testing for Novel coronavirus.

negative: Emergence of multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 with signature structural changes This study explores the divergence pattern of SARS-CoV-2 using whole genome sequences of the isolates from various COVID-19 affected countries. The phylogenomic analysis indicates the presence of at least four distinct groups of the SARS-CoV-2 genomes. The emergent groups have been found to be associated with signature structural changes in specific proteins. Also, this study reveals the differential levels of divergence patterns for the protein coding regions. Moreover, we have predicted the impact of structural changes on a couple of important viral proteins via structural modelling techniques. This study further advocates for more viral genetic studies with associated clinical outcomes and hosts’ response for better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis enabling better mitigation of this pandemic situation.

negative: Global, Regional and National Incidence and Case-fatality rates of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) across 154 countries and territories: A systematic assessment of cases reported from January to March 16, 2020 Background: The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak turned into a pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of cases reported globally. The number of cases dramatically increased beginning in early March 2020. Aim: We assessed the cumulative change in the incidence and case-fatality rates of COVID-19 at the global, regional, and national levels from January to March 16, 2020, in 154 affected countries and territories globally. Methods: We collected data of COVID-19 cases using the GitHub repository, which provided real-time surveillance information developed by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University (USA). Information such as confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries reported across all affected countries was collected from January 22 to March 16, 2020. We estimated the change in the incidence rate, case-fatality rate, and recovery rate from January 22 to February 29 and from March 1 to March 16, 2020. Results: From January 22 to March 16, 2020, globally, the number of incident COVID-19 cases increased by 276.2%, and Europe recorded 65,281 new cases from March 1 to 16, 2020. Overall, the case-fatality rate was 3.92%, with a high COVID-19 fatality rate in Italy (7.7%), Iran (5.7%), China (4.2%) and the United Kingdom (3.6%). The estimated percentage change in COVID-19 cases from March 1 to 16, 2020, was highest in Belgium (105.8/100,000 population), followed by Qatar (439/100,000 population) and Portugal (331/100,000 population). The overall recovery rate of COVID-19 was 43%; China (35.5%) had the highest recovery rate, while the United States of America recorded a recovery rate of 0.3%. Conclusion: Overall, all the COVID-19-affected countries showed an upward trend in incidence, with little change in the incidence rate of -0.20% from January to Mid-March. The case-fatality rate was found to be 3.92%, and the recovery rate was observed to be less than half (43%) among COVID-19 patients. Italy, Iran, and Spain had the largest numbers of new cases of COVID-19 from March 1 to 16, 2020.

negative: Chapter 1 Seeds of Destruction Abstract This chapter provides the reader with an understanding and appreciation for the scope and importance of biological threats and the opportunity to see where they may be and have become the desire of terrorist groups and the makings of weapons of mass destruction. The history of biological warfare is covered in depth. These major events are important in helping us understand the issues related to using biological substances against an adversary. The difference between biosecurity and biodefense are explained and then related to homeland security and homeland defense, respectively. This chapter also details how expensive these programs are, with nearly $80billion having been spent on civilian biodefense since fiscal year 2001 in the United States alone. As discussed herein, there is a significant difference in the reality and the potential of bioterrorism. Bioterrorism on a large scale is a low-probability event. Bioterrorism on a small scale is a fairly routine occurrence with little potential. Biological threats remain very much in the news. Recent examples, such as laboratory incidents, the Ebola outbreak of 2014, and other emerging threats, are covered in this chapter.

negative: Lectin-like Intestinal Defensin Inhibits 2019-nCoV Spike binding to ACE2 The burgeoning epidemic caused by novel coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoV) is currently a global concern. Angiotensin-converting enzyme-2 (ACE2) is a receptor of 2019-nCoV spike 1 protein (S1) and mediates viral entry into host cells. Despite the abundance of ACE2 in small intestine, few digestive symptoms are observed in patients infected by 2019-nCoV. Herein, we investigated the interactions between ACE2 and human defensins (HDs) specifically secreted by intestinal Paneth cells. The lectin-like HD5, rather than HD6, bound ACE2 with a high affinity of 39.3 nM and weakened the subsequent recruitment of 2019-nCoV S1. The cloak of HD5 on the ligand-binding domain of ACE2 was confirmed by molecular dynamic simulation. A remarkable dose-dependent preventive effect of HD5 on 2019-nCoV S1 binding to intestinal epithelial cells was further evidenced by in vitro experiments. Our findings unmasked the innate defense function of lectin-like intestinal defensin against 2019-nCoV, which may provide new insights into the prevention and treatment of 2019-nCoV infection.

negative: The Coronavirus Pandemic: What Does the Evidence Show? Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a newly emerged disease that has become a global public health concern as it rapidly spread around the world. The etiologic agent responsible for this disease has been named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses as it shows similar genomic features to that of SARS-CoV which caused a pandemic in 2002. This disease first appeared in Hubei province of China and it follows human-to-human transmission but the path this virus took to set up human infection remains a mystery. By 17 April 2020, globally there have been 2,074,529 confirmed cases with 139,378 deaths because of COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 shows several similarities with SARS?CoV, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) with its clinical presentations. This can vary from asymptomatic infection to severe disease and mortality. Real-time reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) screening is considered as the standard laboratory test for the diagnosis of COVID-19. There is no proven antiviral agent against SARS-CoV-2 so the treatment for COVID-19 is symptomatic, aiming for the management of the symptoms and prevention of the complications. The outbreak of COVID-19 has led to the implementation of extraordinary public health measures throughout the world. Numerous antiviral compounds used to treat other infections are being clinically researched to find possible treatment. Similarly, the traditional public health outbreak response strategy of isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment has been implemented in multiple countries and has played an important role in the prevention of new outbreaks. This review aims to enhance our understanding of COVID 19. Keywords: Coronavirus disease 2019; COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; novel coronavirus 2019; severe acute respiratory syndrome-2.

negative: Childhood severe acute respiratory syndrome, coronavirus infections and asthma Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus. Children appear to be less susceptible to the SARS coronavirus, although the other non‐SARS coronaviruses can cause respiratory infections in adults and in children of all ages. The exact reasons as to why SARS preferentially affects adults, and not children, are still unknown. Many hypotheses exist and need to be explored. During the outbreak of SARS, there did not appear to be an increase in asthma exacerbations in children.

negative: Predicting the receptor-binding domain usage of the coronavirus based on kmer frequency on spike protein

negative: Les professionnels de santé face à la pandémie de la maladie à coronavirus (COVID-19) : quels risques pour leur santé mentale ?/ [Health professionals facing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: What are the mental health risks?] OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused major sanitary crisis worldwide. Half of the world has been placed in quarantine. In France, this large-scale health crisis urgently triggered the restructuring and reorganization of health service delivery to support emergency services, medical intensive care units and continuing care units. Health professionals mobilized all their resources to provide emergency aid in a general climate of uncertainty. Concerns about the mental health, psychological adjustment, and recovery of health care workers treating and caring for patients with COVID-19 are now arising. The goal of the present article is to provide up-to-date information on potential mental health risks associated with exposure of health professionals to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Authors performed a narrative review identifying relevant results in the scientific and medical literature considering previous epidemics of 2003 (SARS-CoV-1) and 2009 (H1N1) with the more recent data about the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlighted most relevant data concerning the disease characteristics, the organizational factors and personal factors that may contribute to developing psychological distress and other mental health symptoms. RESULTS: The disease characteristics of the current COVID-19 pandemic provoked a generalized climate of wariness and uncertainty, particularly among health professionals, due to a range of causes such as the rapid spread of COVID-19, the severity of symptoms it can cause in a segment of infected individuals, the lack of knowledge of the disease, and deaths among health professionals. Stress may also be caused by organizational factors, such as depletion of personal protection equipment, concerns about not being able to provide competent care if deployed to new area, concerns about rapidly changing information, lack of access to up-to-date information and communication, lack of specific drugs, the shortage of ventilators and intensive care unit beds necessary to care for the surge of critically ill patients, and significant change in their daily social and family life. Further risk factors have been identified, including feelings of being inadequately supported, concerns about health of self, fear of taking home infection to family members or others, and not having rapid access to testing through occupational health if needed, being isolated, feelings of uncertainty and social stigmatization, overwhelming workload, or insecure attachment. Additionally, we discussed positive social and organizational factors that contribute to enhance resilience in the face of the pandemic. There is a consensus in all the relevant literature that health care professionals are at an increased risk of high levels of stress, anxiety, depression, burnout, addiction and post-traumatic stress disorder, which could have long-term psychological implications. CONCLUSIONS: In the long run, this tragic health crisis should significantly enhance our understanding of the mental health risk factors among the health care professionals facing the COVID-19 pandemic. Reporting information such as this is essential to plan future prevention strategies. Protecting health care professionals is indeed an important component of public health measures to address large-scale health crisis. Thus, interventions to promote mental well-being in health care professionals exposed to COVID-19 need to be immediately implemented, and to strengthen prevention and response strategies by training health care professionals on mental help and crisis management.

negative: The Threat from Viruses Infectious disease represent the most significant threat to human health. Significant geologic cataclysmic events have caused the extinction of countless species, but these “Wrath of God” events predate the emergence of Homo sapiens. Pandemic infections have accompanied the rise of human civilization frequently re-occurring leaving a lasting imprint on human history punctuated by profound loss of life. Emerging infections become endemic and are here to stay marking their presence with an annual death toll. Each decade brings a new onslaught of emerging infectious agents. We are surprised again and again but are never prepared. The long-term consequences often remain unrecognized and are always inconvenient including cancer, cardiovascular disease and immune associated diseases that threaten our health. Reliance on clusters of clinical symptoms in the face of diverse and non-descriptive viral infection symptoms is a foolhardy form of crisis management. Viral success is based on rapid replication resulting in large numbers. Single-stranded RNA viruses with their high replication error rate represent a paradigm for resilience.

negative: A Preliminary Assessment of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Knowledge and Perceptions in Nigeria This study assessed knowledge and perceptions about COVID-19 among the general public in Nigeria during the initial week of the pandemic lockdown in the country. From March 28 to April 4, 2020, this cross-sectional survey used an anonymous online questionnaire to collect data from respondents within Nigeria. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used to recruit 1357 respondents, aged 15-70 years, from 180 cities and towns within Nigeria. Study data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Approximately more than half (57.02%) of the respondents were male with a high level of education (48.86% bachelor degree or higher). Approximately half of the respondents (46.94%) opined that COVID-19 was a biological weapon designed by the Chinese government. About 94% of the respondents identified contact with airborne droplets via breathing, sneezing, or coughing as the most common mode of transmission; most respondents associated COVID-19 with coughing (81.13%), shortness of breath (73.47%) and fever (62.79%). Regular hand washing and social distancing were selected by most respondents (94.25%) as a way of preventing infection whereas 11.86% reported consuming gins, garlic, ginger, herbal mixtures and African foods/soups as preventive measures against COVID-19. The majority of the respondents (91.73%) thought COVID-19 is deadly, and most respondents (84.3%) got 4 or more answers correctly. It was also observed that the traditional media (TV/Radio) is the most common source of health information about COVID-19 (93.5%). Findings revealed that Nigerians have relatively high knowledge, mostly derived from traditional media, about COVID-19. Their perceptions of COVID-19 bear implications across public health initiatives, compliance with precautionary behavior as well as bilateral relations with foreign nations. Evidence-based campaign should be intensified to remove misconceptions and promote precautionary measures.

negative: Infection control challenge in setting up a temporary test centre at the international airport for rapid diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to SARS-CoV-2

negative: What China's coronavirus response can teach the rest of the world.

negative: What can COVID-19 teach us about responding to climate change?

negative: Emergency Preparedness — Planning and Management

negative: Economic Assessment of the Damages Caused by Global Warming Damages avoided – the principal benefit of mitigating climate change – are investigated in this chapter, particularly the potential adverse impacts on the primary sectors, biodiversity and human health. A review of studies indicates that climate change is unlikely to have much impact on agriculture and forestry; projected climate change will increase productivity in some regions while reducing it in others, leading to a redistribution of land rents with little impact on overall output. When CO(2) fertilization is taken into account, there might even be an overall increase in primary sector productivity that results in more undisturbed land, thus protecting biodiversity. Other findings in this chapter also run counter to current shibboleths: The biggest threat to polar bears is hunting, not climate change; current trends in Arctic ice extent are not without historical precedent; sea level rise is not an imminent threat; extreme weather events are not increasing; malaria is not only a tropical disease; and human health is a function of income, not climate, with bottom-up models using UN data predicting that death rates from almost all causes will be lower with projected global warming than without it. Meanwhile, integrated assessment models (IAMs) simply assume damages are an arbitrary function of temperature; upon balancing discounted costs and benefits, IAMs can be used to find an optimal path (usually of a carbon tax or emissions cap) for mitigating climate change. It is shown that different assumptions regarding damages, the discount rate, and/or the probability of catastrophic damage can be used to justify completely different policies for addressing global warming. Therefore, a carbon tax that is contingent on the temperature in the troposphere above the tropics – where the earliest indication of global warming is predicted to occur – is considered to be the preferred policy strategy as it should appeal to global warming proponents and skeptics alike. Finally, the Kaya identity is used to demonstrate the policy dilemma that decision makers face in reducing CO(2) emissions.

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic in the USA: what might we expect?

negative: Binding of avian coronavirus spike proteins to host factors reflects virus tropism and pathogenicity. The binding of viruses to host cells is the first step in determining tropism and pathogenicity. While avian infectious bronchitis coronavirus (IBV) infection and avian influenza A virus (IAV) infection both depend on α2,3-linked sialic acids, the host tropism of IBV is restricted compared to that of IAV. Here we investigated whether the interaction between the viral attachment proteins and the host could explain these differences by using recombinant spike domains (S1) of IBV strains with different pathogenicities, as well as the hemagglutinin (HA) protein of IAV H5N1. Protein histochemistry showed that S1 of IBV strain M41 and HA of IAV subtype H5N1 displayed sialic acid-dependent binding to chicken respiratory tract tissue. However, while HA bound with high avidity to a broad range of α2,3-linked sialylated glycans, M41 S1 recognized only one particular α2,3-linked disialoside in a glycan array. When comparing the binding of recombinant IBV S1 proteins derived from IBV strains with known differences in tissue tropism and pathogenicity, we observed that while M41 S1 displayed binding to cilia and goblet cells of the chicken respiratory tract, S1 derived from the vaccine strain H120 or the nonvirulent Beaudette strain had reduced or no binding to chicken tissues, respectively, in agreement with the reduced abilities of these viruses to replicate in vivo. While the S1 protein derived from the nephropathogenic IBV strain B1648 also hardly displayed binding to respiratory tract cells, distinct binding to kidney cells was observed, but only after the removal of sialic acid from S1. In conclusion, our data demonstrate that the attachment patterns of the IBV S proteins correlate with the tropisms and pathogenicities of the corresponding viruses.

negative: Acute care issues in internationally adopted children Over the past decade there has been a dramatic increase in international adoptions in the United States. While most adopted children will have common illnesses, others may have unique medical issues as a result of the conditions in their birth country requiring a broadened differential diagnosis. Knowledge of these issues is essential in the management of these patients. This review will predominately focus on infectious disease issues commonly seen in international adoptees but will also discuss other medical conditions and some of the psychosocial issues which may be encountered by caregivers in the emergency department.

negative: Travelling to scientific meetings is a mission, not a vacation University accountants and administrators should support scientists going to meetings, not further burden them with bureaucratic hurdles, expense claims or unnecessary auditing.[Image: see text]

negative: The clinical data from 19 critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019: a single-centered, retrospective, observational study BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study were to analyze the clinical features of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and evaluate the diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the clinical manifestation and auxiliary examination of 19 patients with COVID-19 from the Liyuan Hospital intensive care unit (ICU) between January 16, 2020 and February 20, 2020 was undertaken. RESULTS: There were 11 male and 8 female cases among the patients. The median (range) age was 73 (38–91) years. Of these patients, 8 (42.1%) had died and the median duration from ICU admission to death was 2 (interquartile range (IQR): 1–10.75) days. Seven of these 8 patients had underlying diseases. The auxiliary examination showed fever (68.4%), dry cough (15.8%), dyspnea (10.5%), and diarrhea (5.3%). All 19 cases showed ground-glass changes on chest computed tomography. Serum hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and serum amylase A (SAA) were clearly increased in all of the cases. Among the 19 cases, there were 16 (84.2%) cases in which the total number of lymphocytes decreased, 12 cases (63%) had reduced liver function, and 11 cases (58%) had deviant results for fibrinogen (FIB) and D-dimer, in particular, the D-dimer level was significantly higher in the non-survivors compared with the survivors. CONCLUSION: There were more men than women among critically ill patients. All of the cases showed ground-glass changes on chest computed tomography and the vast majority of patients displayed fever and dry cough. The clinical laboratory indices change significantly, especially the D-dimer level among non-survivors.

negative: Novel coronavirus is putting the whole world on alert

negative: Emerging infectious diseases: prediction and detection. Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), including West Nile virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Lyme disease, have had a direct effect within Canada, while many more EIDs such as Zika, chikungunya and Ebola are a threat to Canadians while travelling. Over 75% of EIDs affecting humans are, or were originally, zoonoses (infectious diseases transmitted from animals to humans). There are two main ways by which infectious diseases can emerge: by changes in their geographical ranges and by adaptive emergence, a genetic change in a microorganism that results in it becoming capable of invading a new niche, often by jumping to a new host species such as humans. Diseases can appear to emerge simply because we become capable of detecting and diagnosing them. Management of EID events is a key role of public health globally and a considerable challenge for clinical care. Increasingly, emphasis is being placed on predicting EID occurrence to "get ahead of the curve" - that is, allowing health systems to be poised to respond to them, and public health to be ready to prevent them. Predictive models estimate where and when EIDs may occur and the levels of risk they pose. Evaluation of the internal and external drivers that trigger emergence events is increasingly considered in predicting EID events. Currently, global changes are driving increasing occurrence of EIDs, but our capacity to prevent and deal with them is also increasing. Web-based scanning and analysis methods are increasingly allowing us to detect EID outbreaks, modern genomics and bioinformatics are increasing our ability to identify their genetic and geographical origins, while developments in geomatics and earth observation will enable more real-time tracking of outbreaks. EIDs will, however, remain a key, global public health challenge in a globalized world where demographic, climatic, and other environmental changes are altering the interactions between hosts and pathogen in ways that increase spillover from animals to humans and global spread.

negative: Coronavirus disease and local government

negative: A novel coronavirus capable of lethal human infections: an emerging picture SUMMARY: In September 2012, a novel coronavirus was isolated from a patient in Saudi Arabia who had died of an acute respiratory illness and renal failure. The clinical presentation was reminiscent of the outbreak caused by the SARS-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) exactly ten years ago that resulted in over 8000 cases. Sequence analysis of the new virus revealed that it was indeed a member of the same genus as SARS-CoV. By mid-February 2013, 12 laboratory-confirmed cases had been reported with 6 fatalities. The first 9 cases were in individuals resident in the Middle East, while the most recent 3 cases were in family members resident in the UK. The index case in the UK family cluster had travel history to Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Although the current evidence suggests that this virus is not highly transmissible among humans, there is a real danger that it may spread to other parts of the world. Here, a brief review of the events is provided to summarize the rapidly emerging picture of this new virus.

negative: SARS‐CoV‐2, the Virus that Causes COVID‐19: Cytometry and the New Challenge for Global Health

negative: Information about the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

negative: Restoration of leukomonocyte counts is associated with viral clearance in COVID-19 hospitalized patients Background: Viral clearance is one important indicator for the recovery of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Suboptimal T and B cell responses can delay viral clearance in MERS and SARS patients. The role of leukomonocytes in viral clearance of COVID-19 patients is not yet well defined.Methods: From January 26 to February 28, 2020, an observational study was launched at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China. We enrolled 25 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients, whose throat-swab specimens were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection by qRT-PCR. We comprehensively analyzed clinical records, counts of lymphocyte subsets including CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ T cells, B cells and NK cells in the patients who successfully cleared SARS-CoV-2, and compared to those that failed to, after a standardized treatment of 8-14 days. Findings: In 25 enrolled COVID-19 patients, lymphopeniawas a common feature. After the treatment, 14 patients were tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. The patients that cleared the infection had restored the numbers of CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ T cellsand B cells as compared to the still viral RNA positive patients, while the recovered patients had a higher count of leukomonocytes. Conclusions: By comparison of leukomonocytes counts in COVID-19 patients at different stages of the disease, we found that CD3+, CD4+, CD8+ T cells and B cells appear to play important roles in viral clearance. The restoration of leukomonocytes counts from peripheral blood can be used as prognosis for the recovery of an COVID-19 infection. We propose that restoration of leukomonocytes counts can be added to the COVID-19 diagnostic guidanceas a criterion for releasing and discharging patients.

negative: Disaster Response Policy Change in the Wake of Major Disasters, Labeled Focusing Events Responding to the will of the people or the will of the government after a focusing event is complex and fraught with perils; this is none more so than after a major disaster that has brought on the sudden death of many people or the initial incalculable destruction of property or the environment. Korea has experienced several of these types of focusing events that have had major social and policy implications between the years 1948 and 2015. We analyzed them to glean their impact on disaster response policy, organizational and law reform, and first response and national countermeasures – and presented them in a clear and logical array so that the information could lead to a new type of disaster management model. Additionally, we look at how these focusing events altered the political, policy alternative and problem streams, as well as media coverage and policy change in the wake of the focusing event. And finally, we analyze disaster-triggered policy change in Korea to find out if the relation between the focusing event and institutional reforms for disaster response is path-dependent.

negative: Jumping species—a mechanism for coronavirus persistence and survival Zoonotic transmission of novel viruses represents a significant threat to global public health and is fueled by globalization, the loss of natural habitats, and exposure to new hosts. For coronaviruses (CoVs), broad diversity exists within bat populations and uniquely positions them to seed future emergence events. In this review, we explore the host and viral dynamics that shape these CoV populations for survival, amplification, and possible emergence in novel hosts.

negative: Changes in some acute phase protein and immunoglobulin concentrations in cats affected by feline infectious peritonitis or exposed to feline coronavirus infection Abstract The possible role of some acute phase proteins (APPs) and immunoglobulins in both the pathogenesis and diagnosis of feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) has been investigated. Serum protein electrophoresis and the concentration of haptoglobin (Hp), serum amyloid A (SAA), α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP), IgG and IgM were evaluated in cats exposed to feline coronavirus (FCoV) and in cats with FIP. The highest concentration of APPs was detected in affected cats, confirming the role of these proteins in supporting a clinical diagnosis of FIP. Repeated samplings from both FIP affected and FCoV-exposed cats showed that when FIP appeared in the group, all the cats had increased APP levels. This increase persisted only in cats that developed FIP (in spite of a decrease in α2-globulins) but it was only transient in FCoV-exposed cats, in which a long lasting increase in α2-globulins was observed. These results suggest that changes in the electrophoretic motility of APPs or APPs other than Hp, SAA and AGP might be involved in the pathogenesis of FIP or in protecting cats from the disease.

negative: How many are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease? Rapid global, regional and national estimates for 2020 Background The risk of severe COVID-19 disease is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 illness, and how this varies between countries may inform the design of possible strategies to shield those at highest risk. Methods We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease by age (5-year age groups), sex and country (n=188) based on prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for 2017 and United Nations population estimates for 2020. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at-risk because of their age, using thresholds from 50-70 years. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 disease was determined by mapping conditions listed in GBD to the guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and US. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. Results We estimate that 1.7 (1.0 - 2.4) billion individuals (22% [15-28%] of the global population) are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. The share of the population at increased risk ranges from 16% in Africa to 31% in Europe. Chronic kidney disease (CKD), cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and chronic respiratory disease (CRD) were the most prevalent conditions in males and females aged 50+ years. African countries with a high prevalence of HIV/AIDS and Island countries with a high prevalence of diabetes, also had a high share of the population at increased risk. The prevalence of multimorbidity (>1 underlying conditions) was three times higher in Europe than in Africa (10% vs 3%). Conclusion Based on current guidelines and prevalence data from GBD, we estimate that one in five individuals worldwide has a condition that is on the list of those at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease. However, for many of these individuals the underlying condition will be undiagnosed or not severe enough to be captured in health systems, and in some cases the increase in risk may be quite modest. There is an urgent need for robust analyses of the risks associated with different underlying conditions so that countries can identify the highest risk groups and develop targeted shielding policies to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Viral proteins function as ion channels Abstract Viral ion channels are short membrane proteins with 50–120 amino acids and play an important role either in regulating virus replication, such as virus entry, assembly and release or modulating the electrochemical balance in the subcellular compartments of host cells. This review summarizes the recent advances in viral encoded ion channel proteins (or viroporins), including PBCV-1 KcV, influenza M2, HIV-1 Vpu, HCV p7, picornavirus 2B, and coronavirus E and 3a. We focus on their function and mechanisms, and also discuss viral ion channel protein serving as a potential drug target.

negative: Observed and Potential Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Environment Various environmental factors influence the outbreak and spread of epidemic or even pandemic events which, in turn, may cause feedbacks on the environment. The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared a pandemic on 13 March 2020 and its rapid onset, spatial extent and complex consequences make it a once-in-a-century global disaster. Most countries responded by social distancing measures and severely diminished economic and other activities. Consequently, by the end of April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has led to numerous environmental impacts, both positive such as enhanced air and water quality in urban areas, and negative, such as shoreline pollution due to the disposal of sanitary consumables. This study presents an early overview of the observed and potential impacts of the COVID-19 on the environment. We argue that the effects of COVID-19 are determined mainly by anthropogenic factors which are becoming obvious as human activity diminishes across the planet, and the impacts on cities and public health will be continued in the coming years.

negative: Global challenges in health and health care for nurses and midwives everywhere The next decade is likely to produce any number of global challenges that will affect health and health care, including pan‐national infections such as the new coronavirus COVID‐19 and others that will be related to global warming. Nurses will be required to react to these events, even though they will also be affected as ordinary citizens. The future resilience of healthcare services will depend on having sufficient numbers of nurses who are adequately resourced to face the coming challenges.

negative: China's adaptation to climate & urban climatic changes: A critical review Abstract Since the conclusion of the 2014 Climate Summit in New York and the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, China has been actively advancing its national policies on climate change mitigation and adaptation since more unpredictable extreme weather events are expected, which may incur a heavy cost in terms of economics and public health. Since China is still in the process of urbanisation, the greatest challenge it faces is finding a balance between economic growth and keeping carbon dioxide and greenhouse gas emission rates at a manageable level. Cities in China play a key role in the implementation of the central policies and make concrete actions in response to climate change. With reference to a series of recent policy papers and action plans as the background, this paper attempts to provide a critical overview of China's climate change action plans from the national to the city and urban level. It seeks to understand whether the proposed responses to climate change and strategies for actions on greening and air corridors for cities and urban areas are appropriate. It is found that for China to advance its urban climatic adaptation strategy there is a need for (1) urban data, (2) a cross-disciplinary impact assessment, and (3) the development of a market and policy transformation mechanism.

negative: Immediate Psychological Responses and Associated Factors during the Initial Stage of the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Epidemic among the General Population in China Background: The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic is a public health emergency of international concern and poses a challenge to psychological resilience. Research data are needed to develop evidence-driven strategies to reduce adverse psychological impacts and psychiatric symptoms during the epidemic. The aim of this study was to survey the general public in China to better understand their levels of psychological impact, anxiety, depression, and stress during the initial stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. The data will be used for future reference. Methods: From 31 January to 2 February 2020, we conducted an online survey using snowball sampling techniques. The online survey collected information on demographic data, physical symptoms in the past 14 days, contact history with COVID-19, knowledge and concerns about COVID-19, precautionary measures against COVID-19, and additional information required with respect to COVID-19. Psychological impact was assessed by the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R), and mental health status was assessed by the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21). Results: This study included 1210 respondents from 194 cities in China. In total, 53.8% of respondents rated the psychological impact of the outbreak as moderate or severe; 16.5% reported moderate to severe depressive symptoms; 28.8% reported moderate to severe anxiety symptoms; and 8.1% reported moderate to severe stress levels. Most respondents spent 20–24 h per day at home (84.7%); were worried about their family members contracting COVID-19 (75.2%); and were satisfied with the amount of health information available (75.1%). Female gender, student status, specific physical symptoms (e.g., myalgia, dizziness, coryza), and poor self-rated health status were significantly associated with a greater psychological impact of the outbreak and higher levels of stress, anxiety, and depression (p < 0.05). Specific up-to-date and accurate health information (e.g., treatment, local outbreak situation) and particular precautionary measures (e.g., hand hygiene, wearing a mask) were associated with a lower psychological impact of the outbreak and lower levels of stress, anxiety, and depression (p < 0.05). Conclusions: During the initial phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in China, more than half of the respondents rated the psychological impact as moderate-to-severe, and about one-third reported moderate-to-severe anxiety. Our findings identify factors associated with a lower level of psychological impact and better mental health status that can be used to formulate psychological interventions to improve the mental health of vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 epidemic.

negative: Experts' Perceptions on China's Capacity to Manage Emerging and Re-emerging Zoonotic Diseases in an Era of Climate Change. Zoonotic diseases transmitted by arthropods and rodents are a major public health concern in China. However, interventions in recent decades have helped lower the incidence of several diseases despite the country's large, frequently mobile population and socio-economic challenges. Increasing globalization, rapid urbanization and a warming climate now add to the complexity of disease control and prevention and could challenge China's capacity to respond to threats of emerging and re-emerging zoonoses. To investigate this notion, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 30 infectious disease experts in four cities in China. The case study diseases under discussion were malaria, dengue fever and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, all of which may be influenced by changing meteorological conditions. Data were analysed using standard qualitative techniques. The study participants viewed the current disease prevention and control system favourably and were optimistic about China's capacity to manage climate-sensitive diseases in the future. Several recommendations emerged from the data including the need to improve health literacy in the population regarding the transmission of infectious diseases and raising awareness of the health impacts of climate change amongst policymakers and health professionals. Participants thought that research capacity could be strengthened and human resources issues for front-line staff should be addressed. It was considered important that authorities are well prepared in advance for outbreaks such as dengue fever in populous subtropical areas, and a prompt and coordinated response is required when outbreaks occur. Furthermore, health professionals need to remain skilled in the identification of diseases for which incidence is declining, so that re-emerging or emerging trends can be rapidly identified. Recommendations such as these may be useful in formulating adaptation plans and capacity building for the future control and prevention of climate-sensitive zoonotic diseases in China and neighbouring countries.

negative: Emergence of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 in China and the response in Mexico.

negative: Effect of thermal control of dry fomites on regulating the survival of human pathogenic bacteria responsible for nosocomial infections We monitored the survival of human pathogenic bacteria [Escherichia coli (ATCC), extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing E. coli (Clinical isolate), New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase-producing E. coli (clinical isolate), Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC)] on dry materials (vinyl chloride, aluminum, plastic, stainless steel) at distinct temperatures (room temperature or 15°C–37°C). These bacteria favored a lower temperature for their prolonged survival on the dry fomites, regardless of the material type. Interestingly, when mixed with S. aureus, E. coli survived for a longer time at a lower temperature. Cardiolipin, which can promote the survival of S. aureus in harsh environments, had no effect on maintaining the survival of E. coli. Although the trends remained unchanged, adjusting the humidity from 40% to 60% affected the survival of bacteria on dry surfaces. Scanning electron microscopic analysis revealed no morphological differences in these bacteria immediately before or after one day of dry conditions. In addition, ATP assessment, a method used to visualize high-touch surfaces in hospitals, was not effective at monitoring bacterial dynamics. A specialized handrail device fitted with a heater, which was maintained at normal human body core temperature, successfully prohibited the prolonged survival of bacteria [Enterococcus faecalis (ATCC), E. coli (ATCC), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (ATCC), S. aureus (ATCC), Acinetobacter baumannii (clinical isolate), and Serratia marcescens (clinical isolate)], with the exception of spore-forming Bacillus subtilis (from our laboratory collection) and the yeast-like fungus Candida albicans (from our laboratory collection)] on dry surfaces. Taken together, we concluded that the tested bacteria favor lower temperatures for their survival in dry environments. Therefore, the thermal control of dry fomites has the potential to control bacterial survival on high-touch surfaces in hospitals.

negative: Analysis of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) from different species sheds some light on cross-species receptor usage of a novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV

negative: Public Health Response Systems In-Action: Learning from Local Health Departments’ Experiences with Acute and Emergency Incidents As part of their core mission, public health agencies attend to a wide range of disease and health threats, including those that require routine, acute, and emergency responses. While each incident is unique, the number and type of response activities are finite; therefore, through comparative analysis, we can learn about commonalities in the response patterns that could improve predictions and expectations regarding the resources and capabilities required to respond to future acute events. In this study, we interviewed representatives from more than 120 local health departments regarding their recent experiences with real-world acute public health incidents, such as infectious disease outbreaks, severe weather events, chemical spills, and bioterrorism threats. We collected highly structured data on key aspects of the incident and the public health response, particularly focusing on the public health activities initiated and community partners engaged in the response efforts. As a result, we are able to make comparisons across event types, create response profiles, and identify functional and structural response patterns that have import for future public health preparedness and response. Our study contributes to clarifying the complexity of public health response systems and our analysis reveals the ways in which these systems are adaptive to the character of the threat, resulting in differential activation of functions and partners based on the type of incident. Continued and rigorous examination of the experiences of health departments throughout the nation will refine our very understanding of what the public health response system is, will enable the identification of organizational and event inputs to performance, and will allow for the construction of rich, relevant, and practical models of response operations that can be employed to strengthen public health systems.

negative: COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 9+ million confirmed cases and 400,000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have confined a substantial portion of the global population and established ‘social distancing’ as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, and heavily impacted the global economy. This crisis also offers unprecedented insights into how the global climate crisis may be managed, as there are many parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the imminent global climate emergency. Reflecting upon the challenges of today's crisis may help us better prepare for the future. Here we compile a list, by no means comprehensive, of the similarities and differences between the two crises, and the lessons we can learn from them: (i) High momentum trends, (ii) Irreversible changes, (iii) Social and spatial inequality, (iv) Weakening of international solidarity, and (v) Less costly to prevent than to cure.

negative: SEROEPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES OF CORONAVIRUS INFECTION IN ADULTS AND CHILDREN(1) McIntosh, K. A. Z. Kapikian, H. C Turner, J. W. Hartley, R. H. Parrott and R. M. Chanock. (Lab. of Infectious Diseases, NIAID, NIH, Bethesda, Md. 20014) Sero-epidemiologic studies of coronavirus infection in adults and children. Amer. J. Epid., 1970, 97: 585–592-A seroepidemiologic study of infection by coronavirus strains 229E, OC38, OC43, and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) strain A-59, is described. In adults with upper respiratory disease, two “outbreaks” of coronavirus infection occurred, one during the winter of 1965–1966 associated with complement fixing (CF) antibody responses to OC38, OC43 and MHV, and the other during the following winter associated with CF antibody responses to 229E. In hospitalized children, infection with 229E was rare; infection with OC38, OC43, and MHV occurred less often in hospitalized children with lower respiratory tract disease (3.5%) than in a control group with non-respiratory tract disease (8.2%). The limitations of the CF test using available coronavirus antigens are discussed.

negative: Evidence of recombination in coronaviruses implicating pangolin origins of nCoV-2019 A novel coronavirus (nCoV-2019) was the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness detected in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December of 2019. Genomic analyses of nCoV-2019 determined a 96% resemblance with a coronavirus isolated from a bat in 2013 (RaTG13); however, the receptor binding motif (RBM) of these two genomes share low sequence similarity. This divergence suggests a possible alternative source for the RBM coding sequence in nCoV-2019. We identified high sequence similarity in the RBM between nCoV-2019 and a coronavirus genome reconstructed from a viral metagenomic dataset from pangolins possibly indicating a more complex origin for nCoV-2019.

negative: Emerging diseases threaten conservation.

negative: Murine Coronavirus Cell Type Dependent Interaction with the Type I Interferon Response Coronaviruses infect many species of animal including humans, causing acute and chronic diseases of many organ systems. Murine coronavirus, mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) infection of the mouse, provides animal models for the study of central nervous system disease, including encephalitis and demyelinating diseases such as Multiple Sclerosis and for hepatitis. While there are many studies of the adaptive immune response to MHV, there has until recently been scant information on the type I interferon (IFN) response to MHV. The relationship between MHV and the IFN-α/β response is paradoxical. While the type I IFN response is a crucial aspect of host defense against MHV in its natural host, there is little if any induction of IFN following infection of mouse fibroblast cell lines in vitro. Furthermore, MHV is relatively resistant to the antiviral effects of IFN-α/β in mouse fibroblast cell lines and in human 293T cells. MHV can, under some circumstances, compromise the antiviral effects of IFN signaling. The nucleocapsid protein as well as the nsp1 and nsp3 proteins of MHV has been reported to have IFN antagonist activity. However, in primary cell types such as plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDC) and macrophages, IFN is induced by MHV infection and an antiviral state is established. Other primary cell types such as neurons, astrocytes and hepatocytes fail to produce IFN following infection and, in vivo, likely depend on IFN produced by pDCs and macrophages for protection from MHV. Thus MHV induction of IFN-α/β and the ability to induce an antiviral state in response to interferon is extremely cell type dependent. IFN induced protection from MHV pathogenesis likely requires the orchestrated activities of several cell types, however, the cell types involved in limiting MHV replication may be different in the liver and in the immune privileged CNS.

negative: The influence of cold weather on the usage of emergency link calls: a case study in Hong Kong BACKGROUND: In response to an unexpected long cold spell in February 1996 which killed more than 100 older adults (mostly living alone) in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Senior Citizen Home Safety Association established a Personal Emergency Link Service to provide emergency contact to the older adults, which uses a telephone system to render emergency relief and total care service around the clock. To facilitate the dynamic and efficient allocation of service resources, it is crucial to understand the factors linked with use of the services and number of hospital admissions arising from PE link service. METHODS: We initially use the Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) with polynomial effect functions of relevant covariates. If the time series of residuals from fitting the Poisson GLM reveals significant serial correlation, a Poisson generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) model is refitted to the data to account for the auto-correlation among the time series of daily call numbers. If the data is overdispersed relative to the best fitting Poisson GLARMA model, then the negative binomial GLARMA model is refitted to account for any overdispersion. In all the models, dummy variables for weekdays and months are included to account for any cyclic trends due weekday effect or month of the year effect. The secular time trend is modeled by a polynomial function of calendar time over the study period. Finally any critical temperatures are identified by visually inspecting the graph of the effect function of temperature. RESULTS: The weekday and month effects are both significant with Monday seeing more PE Link calls than Sunday and June seeing less than January. Temperature has significant effect on the PE Link call rate with the effect highly nonlinear. A critical temperature, below which excessive increase in PE link calls that lead to hospital admissions, is identified to be around 15 °C. CONCLUSION: Identifying a threshold temperature which generates an excessive increase in the expected number of PE Link calls would be useful in service provision planning and support for elderly in need of hospital admission.

negative: Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak Abstract Backgrounds An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city in China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and other countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R 0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R 0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R 0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96–2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89–4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R 0. Conclusion The mean estimate of R 0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and is significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

negative: Bibliometric analysis of peer-reviewed literature on climate change and human health with an emphasis on infectious diseases BACKGROUND: Assessing research activity is important for planning future protective and adaptive policies. The objective of the current study was to assess research activity on climate change and health with an emphasis on infectious diseases. METHOD: A bibliometric method was applied using SciVerse Scopus. Documents on climate change and human health were called “health-related literature” while documents on climate change and infectious diseases were called “infection-related literature”. The study period was from 1980 to 2019. RESULTS: The search query found 4247 documents in the health-related literature and 1207 in the infection-related literature. The growth of publications showed a steep increase after 2007. There were four research themes in the health-related literature: (1) climate change and infectious diseases; (2) climate change, public health and food security; (3) heat waves, mortality, and non-communicable diseases; and (4) climate change, air pollution, allergy, and respiratory health. The most frequently encountered pathogens/infectious diseases in the infection-related literature were malaria and dengue. Documents in infection-related literature had a higher h-index than documents in the health-related literature. The top-cited documents in the health-related literature focused on food security, public health, and infectious diseases while those in infection-related literature focused on water-, vector-, and mosquito-borne diseases. The European region had the highest contribution in health-related literature (n = 1626; 38.3%) and infection-related literature (n = 497; 41.2%). The USA led with 1235 (29.1%) documents in health-related literature and 365 (30.2%) documents in infection-related literature. The Australian National University ranked first in the health-related literature while the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine ranked first in the infection-related literature. International research collaboration was inadequate. Documents published in the Environmental Health Perspectives journal received the highest citations per document. A total of 1416 (33.3%) documents in the health-related literature were funded while 419 (34.7%) documents in the infection-related literature were funded. CONCLUSION: Research on climate change and human health is on the rise with research on infection-related issues making a good share. International research collaboration should be funded and supported. Future research needs to focus on the impact of climate change on psychosocial, mental, innovations, policies, and preparedness of health systems.

negative: PEDV and PDCoV Pathogenesis: The Interplay Between Host Innate Immune Responses and Porcine Enteric Coronaviruses Enteropathogenic porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) and porcine deltacoronavirus (PDCoV), members of the coronavirus family, account for the majority of lethal watery diarrhea in neonatal pigs in the past decade. These two viruses pose significant economic and public health burdens, even as both continue to emerge and reemerge worldwide. The ability to evade, circumvent or subvert the host’s first line of defense, namely the innate immune system, is the key determinant for pathogen virulence, survival, and the establishment of successful infection. Unfortunately, we have only started to unravel the underlying viral mechanisms used to manipulate host innate immune responses. In this review, we gather current knowledge concerning the interplay between these viruses and components of host innate immunity, focusing on type I interferon induction and signaling in particular, and the mechanisms by which virus-encoded gene products antagonize and subvert host innate immune responses. Finally, we provide some perspectives on the advantages gained from a better understanding of host-pathogen interactions. This includes their implications for the future development of PEDV and PDCoV vaccines and how we can further our knowledge of the molecular mechanisms underlying virus pathogenesis, virulence, and host coevolution.

negative: Demographic, etiological, and histological pulmonary analysis of patients with acute respiratory failure: a study of 19 years of autopsies INTRODUCTION: Acute respiratory failure has been one of the most important causes of death in intensive care units, and certain aspects of its pulmonary pathology are currently unknown. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to describe the demographic data, etiology, and pulmonary histopathological findings of different diseases in the autopsies of patients with acute respiratory failure. METHOD: Autopsies of 4,710 patients with acute respiratory failure from 1990 to 2008 were reviewed, and the following data were obtained: age, sex, and major associated diseases. The pulmonary histopathology was categorized as diffuse alveolar damage, pulmonary edema, alveolar hemorrhage, and lymphoplasmacytic interstitial pneumonia. The odds ratio of the concordance between the major associated diseases and specific autopsy findings was calculated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Bacterial bronchopneumonia was present in 33.9% of the cases and cancer in 28.1%. The pulmonary histopathology showed diffuse alveolar damage in 40.7% (1,917) of the cases. A multivariate analysis showed a significant and powerful association between diffuse alveolar damage and bronchopneumonia, HIV/AIDS, sepsis, and septic shock, between liver cirrhosis and pulmonary embolism, between pulmonary edema and acute myocardial infarction, between dilated cardiomyopathy and cancer, between alveolar hemorrhage and bronchopneumonia and pulmonary embolism, and between lymphoplasmacytic interstitial pneumonia and HIV/AIDS and liver cirrhosis. CONCLUSIONS: Bronchopneumonia was the most common diagnosis in these cases. The most prevalent pulmonary histopathological pattern was diffuse alveolar damage, which was associated with different inflammatory conditions. Further studies are necessary to elucidate the complete pathophysiological mechanisms involved with each disease and the development of acute respiratory failure.

negative: Foreign Aid and Humanitarian Assistance Together the US and EU provide two-thirds of global humanitarian assistance for the alleviation of emergencies arising from natural and man-made disasters and 80% of global foreign aid for longer-term development assistance programs. It is therefore vital that they continue their close partnership to ensure their dollars and euros are spent as effectively as possible in an era of increasingly tight budgetary constraints. The outbreak of Ebola in West Africa in 2014 is a good example of how the US and the EU successfully addressed (albeit belatedly) a major health crisis that could have turned into a global pandemic. In many areas in Africa, they are collaborating closely on the foundation of shared priorities, including on food security, resilience, and electrification. They are also among the largest donors to the Global Fund to fight HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria and to the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation.

negative: Identifying outbreaks of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus through animal movements and spatial neighborhoods The spread of pathogens in swine populations is in part determined by movements of animals between farms. However, understanding additional characteristics that predict disease outbreaks and uncovering landscape factors related to between-farm spread are crucial steps toward risk mitigation. This study integrates animal movements with environmental risk factors to identify the occurrence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) outbreaks. Using weekly farm-level incidence data from 332 sow farms, we applied machine-learning algorithms to quantify associations between risk factors and PEDV outbreaks with the ultimate goal of training predictive models and to identify the most important factors associated with PEDV occurrence. Our best algorithm was able to correctly predict whether an outbreak occurred during one-week periods with >80% accuracy. The most important predictors included pig movements into neighboring farms. Other important neighborhood attributes included hog density, environmental and weather factors such as vegetation, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation, and topographical features such as slope. Our neighborhood-based approach allowed us to simultaneously capture disease risks associated with long-distance animal movement as well as local spatial dynamics. The model presented here forms the foundation for near real-time disease mapping and will advance disease surveillance and control for endemic swine pathogens in the United States.

negative: Epidemiological Determinants of Successful Vaccine Development Epidemiological determinants of successful vaccine development were explored using measurable biological variables including antigenic stability and requirement of T-cell immunity. Employing a logistic regression model, we demonstrate that a high affinity with blood and immune cells and pathogen interactions (e.g. interference) would be the risk factors of failure for vaccine development.

negative: Major cluster of pediatric “ true ” primary chilblains during the COVID‐19 pandemic: a consequence of lifestyle changes due to lockdown BACKGROUND: Over the last months, during the COVID‐19 pandemic, a growing number of chilblain‐like lesions was reported mainly in children, rarely in young adults. The relationship with SARS‐CoV‐2 infection was postulated, often without any laboratory, instrumental or clinical confirmation. The disclosure of information about chilblain‐like lesions as a COVID‐19 manifestation in social media has created concern in children’s families and pediatricians OBJECTIVES: to verify whether the chilblain‐like lesions were caused by SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. METHODS: prospective study on a case series including children who presented with acral lesions at the Pediatric Dermatology Outpatient and Pediatric Emergency Unit of the University of Bologna, from April 1 to April 30, 2020. We reported demographical, laboratory and clinical features, history of close contact with COVID‐19 patients, presence of similar skin lesions in other family members, precipitating and risk factors for chilblain onset. RESULTS: We evaluated 8 patients (5 females, 3 males) aged between 11 and 15 years. We excluded acute or previous SARS‐CoV‐2 infection with RT‐PCR nasopharyngeal swab, serum antibody levels using chemiluminescent immunoassays. Other acute infections causing purpuric lesions at the extremities were negative in all patients. Skin lesion biopsy for histological and immunohistochemical evaluation was made in two cases and was consistent with chilblain. PCR‐assay on skin lesion biopsy for Parvovirus B19, Mycoplasma pneumoniae and SARS‐CoV‐2 was performed in a patient and resulted negative. We identified common precipitating and risk factors: physical (cold and wet extremities, low BMI), cold and wet indoor and outdoor environment, behaviors, habits, lifestyle. We therefore reached a diagnosis of primary chilblains. CONCLUSIONS: During the COVID‐19 pandemic, a “cluster” of primary chilblains developed in predisposed subjects, mainly teenagers, due to to cold exposure in the lockdown period. Laboratory findings support our hypothesis, although it is also possible that an unknown infectious trigger may have contributed to the pathogenesis.

negative: Forests of Small Stream Bottoms in the Coastal Plain of Southwestern Alabama Overstory and understory data were collected from 49 forest stands in 27 small stream bottoms in the Gulf Coastal Plain region of southwestern Alabama. The stands were arranged in a single—dimensioned ordination on the basis of the importance values of the persistent species in the overstories. Leading dominant species, from the dry end to the wet end of the ordination gradient, were Cornus florida, Pinus palustris, Quercus nigra, Liquidambar styraciflua, Nyssa sylvatica v. sylvatica, Magnolia virginiana, and N. sylvatica v. biflora. Two important seral species, most prominent at the middle of the ordination gradient and of relatively little importance at either end, were Pinus elliottii and Liriodendron tulipifera. The stand position on the ordination gradient, referred to as the moisture—regime index, was significantly related to water—table depth, soil—surface gradient, and soil pH at 63.5 cm. Failure to obtain significant relationship with other soil variables was attributed to the high frequency of fresh soil deposition in the small stream bottoms. As a check on the ordination analysis, species—present data were used to construct a species—correlation diagram. When species moisture—regime numbers from the ordination analysis were inserted in this diagram, good agreement was revealed in the results of the two independent analyses.

negative: Bridging the Gap Between Conservation and Health Health is frequently in the news, whether it is the “bird flu” headlines or woven into the core of climate change reports. And in these articles, health is the common thread that connects humans, animals, and the environment; however, this underlying link is often undervalued, leaving a “gap” that challenges our ability to prevent and mitigate major global catastrophes. The Ebola virus disease has ravaged West Africa, leaving a swath of devastation and unanswered questions in its wake, but it highlights the alarming potential of a zoonotic disease, one of hundreds that pass between animals and humans. Climate change continues to fuel controversy, but it is undeniable that our exploitation of the Earth is impacting the fundamental resources that form the foundation of our existence. The state of our ecosystems is integral to the conservation and sustainable management of our wildlife and natural resources. The health of the environment cannot be segregated from our own health; thus, we need to examine health from a global stance. Our traditional perspectives of “health” and “disease” are outdated, and it is prime time for us to reevaluate our approaches to engage a comprehensive audience as well as holistic strategies to address these issues as “One Health.”

negative: Räumliche Ausbreitung von COVID-19 durch interregionale Verflechtungen The coronavirus has plunged the global economy into crisis. Since the beginning of March, contact and exit restrictions and bans on business activities have been imposed in Germany, schools have been closed, child care has been suspended, and strict hygiene regulations have been issued. In the meantime, the number of reported new infections has been significantly reduced and the German healthcare system does not appear to be overburdened to date. This is one of the reasons why there is now an intensive debate about easing the regulations, which would allow additional economic activity. The article also examines commuter links and the role they have played in the spread of COVID-19 in Germany as well as bad weather conditions and a high population density.

negative: Structural disorder in the proteome and interactome of Alkhurma virus (ALKV) Infection by the Alkhurma virus (ALKV) leading to the Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever is a common thread in Saudi Arabia, with no efficient treatment or prevention available as of yet. Although the rational drug design traditionally uses information on known 3D structures of viral proteins, intrinsically disordered proteins (i.e., functional proteins that do not possess unique 3D structures), with their multitude of disorder-dependent functions, are crucial for the biology of viruses. Here, viruses utilize disordered regions in their invasion of the host organisms and in hijacking and repurposing of different host systems. Furthermore, the ability of viruses to efficiently adjust and accommodate to their hostile habitats is also intrinsic disorder-dependent. However, little is currently known on the level of penetrance and functional utilization of intrinsic disorder in the ALKV proteome. To fill this gap, we used here multiple computational tools to evaluate the abundance of intrinsic disorder in the ALKV genome polyprotein. We also analyzed the peculiarities of intrinsic disorder predisposition of the individual viral proteins, as well as human proteins known to be engaged in interaction with the ALKV proteins. Special attention was paid to finding a correlation between protein functionality and structural disorder. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first systematic study of the intrinsic disorder status of ALKV proteome and interactome. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00018-018-2968-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Striding Toward Malaria Elimination in China

negative: Molecular detection of respiratory pathogens and typing of human rhinovirus of adults hospitalized for exacerbation of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease BACKGROUND: Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and asthma are associated with a variety of precipitating factors including infection. This study assessed the infective viral etiologies by real-time multiplex polymerase chain reaction of patients hospitalized with AECOPD and asthma exacerbations. In addition, infective etiologies were assessed for association with the clinical outcome of the patients. METHODS: Adults admitted with AECOPD and asthma exacerbations between August 2016 and July 2017 were recruited. Nasopharyngeal aspirate (NPA) samples were obtained from the patients within 1–2 days of admission and subjected to pathogen detection and human rhinovirus (HRV) typing. RESULTS: Altogether 402 patients with AECOPD, 80 stable COPD, 100 asthma exacerbation and 21 stable asthma subjects were recruited. Among those admitted for AECOPD and asthma exacerbations, 141(35.1%) and 45(45.0%) respectively had pathogens identified in the NPA specimens. The commonest virus identified was influenza A followed by HRV. HRV typing identified HRV-A and HRV-C as the more common HRV with a wide variety of genotypes. Identification of pathogens in NPA or HRV typing otherwise did not affect clinical outcomes including the hospital length of stay, readmission rates and mortality except that identification of pathogens in asthma exacerbation was associated with a lower rate of readmissions at 30 and 60 days. CONCLUSIONS: Many respiratory viruses were associated with AECOPD and asthma exacerbation. HRV-A and HRV-C were the more common HRV associated with exacerbations. Identification of pathogens in NPA was associated with less readmissions for asthma patients at 30 and 60 days. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02866357. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary information accompanies this paper at10.1186/s12931-019-1181-0.

negative: TWIRLS, an automated topic-wise inference method based on massive literature, suggests a possible mechanism via ACE2 for the pathological changes in the human host after coronavirus infection Faced with the current large-scale public health emergency, collecting, sorting, and analyzing biomedical information related to the “coronavirus” should be done as quickly as possible to gain a global perspective, which is a basic requirement for strengthening epidemic control capacity. However, for human researchers studying the viruses and the hosts, the vast amount of information available cannot be processed effectively and in a timely manner, particularly when the scientific understanding may be limited, which can further lower the information processing efficiency. We present TWIRLS, a method that can automatically acquire, organize, and classify information. Additionally, independent functional data sources can be added to build an inference system using a machine-based approach, which can provide relevant knowledge to help human researchers quickly establish subject cognition and to make more effective decisions. TWIRLS can automatically analyze more than three million words in more than 14,000 literature articles in only 4 hours. Combining with generalized gene interaction databases creates a data interface that can help researchers to further analyze the information. Using the TWIRLS system, we found that an important regulatory factor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) may be involved in the host pathological changes on binding to the coronavirus after infection. After triggering functional changes in ACE2/AT2R, an imbalance in the steady-state cytokine regulatory axis involving the Renin-Angiotensin System and IP-10 leads to a cytokine storm.

negative: Insurance uptake among small and medium-sized tourism and hospitality enterprises in a resource-scarce environment Abstract Small and medium-sized tourism and hospitality enterprises (SMTHEs) are often susceptible to various hazards, which result in risk concerns. Insurance is recognised as one of the risk management strategies, but evidence indicates that insurance uptake among SMTHEs has been low. Yet, researchers have hardly researched into the factors that influence insurance uptake among SMTHEs. Two-hundred and fifty (250) respondents were selected using a multi-stage sampling technique. Confirmatory factor analysis, multivariate logit and probit regression techniques were used to determine factors underlying SMTHEs' insurance uptake. Risk concerns, the firm's characteristics, the perceived benefits of insurance and other informal risk coping mechanisms, as well as insurance service provision concerns were identified as determinants of insurance uptake. This is one of the first papers to offer a holistic understanding of the factors influencing SMTHEs' insurance subscription in a resource-scarce destination of Sub-Saharan Africa. The practical and theoretical implications of the paper are discussed.

negative: A flu by any other name: why the World Health Organization should adopt the World Meteorological Association's storm naming system as a model for naming emerging infectious diseases. This article explores the factors that contributed to the use of different names for H1N1 by diverse actors in the early stages of the pandemic of 2009 and discusses the implications of inconsistent naming practices for the public's understanding of the virus and the credibility of scientists and health authorities. The authors propose a naming protocol for novel variants modeled after the World Meteorological Association's practice for naming weather events, a model that would enable accurate transmission of technical information among experts and provide a stable name for public use, even in the context of incomplete or changing scientific understanding of the nature of the pathogen.

negative: Opinion of the Scientific Panel Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW) related with the Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

negative: Docetaxel induces moderate ovarian toxicity in mice, primarily affecting granulosa cells of early growing follicles Advances in cancer therapy have focused attention on the quality of life of cancer survivors. Since infertility is a major concern following chemotherapy, it is important to characterize the drug-specific damage to the reproductive system to help find appropriate protective strategies. This study investigates the damage on neonatal mouse ovary maintained in vitro for 6 days, and exposed for 24 h (on Day 2) to clinically relevant doses of Docetaxel (DOC; low: 0.1 µM, mid: 1 µM, high: 10 µM). Furthermore, the study explores the putative protective action exerted by Tri-iodothyronine (T3; 10(−7) M). At the end of culture, morphological analyses and follicle counts showed that DOC negatively impacts on early growing follicles, decreasing primary follicle number and severely affecting health at the transitional and primary stages. Poor follicle health was mainly due to effects on granulosa cells, indicating that the effects of DOC on oocytes were likely to be secondary to granulosa cell damage. DOC damages growing follicles specifically, with no direct effect on the primordial follicle reserve. Immunostaining and western blotting showed that DOC induces activation of intrinsic, type II apoptosis in ovarian somatic cells; increasing the levels of cleaved caspase 3, cleaved caspase 8, Bax and cleaved poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase, while also inducing movement of cytochrome C from mitochondria into the cytosol. T3 did not prevent the damage induced by the low dose of DOC. These results demonstrated that DOC induces a gonadotoxic effect on the mouse ovary through induction of somatic cell apoptosis, with no evidence of direct effects on the oocyte, and that the damaging effect is not mitigated by T3.

negative: Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 We report temporal patterns of viral shedding in 94 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients and modelled COVID-19 infectiousness profile from a separate sample of 77 infector-infectee transmission pairs. We observed the highest viral load in throat swabs at the time of symptom onset, and inferred that infectiousness peaked on or before symptom onset. We estimated that 44% of transmission could occur before first symptoms of the index. Disease control measures should be adjusted to account for probable substantial pre-symptomatic transmission.

negative: Chapter 16 Combustion, reactive hazard, and bioprocess safety Abstract Is bioprocess dangerous? How to maintain safety? What is reactive hazard? What is biohazard? Chemical or biotransformation means change. Any changes have irreversible consequences. Managing the changes can help us, while changes can also be harmful. The first-line of defense on any potential unwanted transformations is isolation or containment. WHO defines four-risk groups of biosafety levels. There are six key knowledge bases for biosafety. With chemical safety, substance identification is the first step. The global harmonized system (GHS) of classification and labeling is generally agreed by the world bodies. The hazards are divided into three categories—physical, health, and environmental hazards. Chemical reactivity hazard is a situation where an uncontrolled reaction could result directly or indirectly in serious harm to people, property, or equipment. Fire and explosion are common reactivity hazards. To safe guard processes and facility, one needs to first identify the threat, or screening for reactivity hazards. Combustion processes proceed with chain reactions and the reaction is highly exothermic. Combined with the high-activation energy, combustion leads to large-temperature dependence. The overall reaction products can also vary (partial oxidation versus total oxidation). Partial oxidation reactions are important in chemical industry. Pyrolysis and gasification of biomass, for example, are useful technologies in biomass conversion. An explosion is a fast, transient, exothermic reaction. Unintended and accidental explosions can occur due to (1) The accumulation of reactive chemicals (gas, liquid, or solid) in confined space; (2) Leakage of “significant amount” of reactive chemicals (gas, liquid, or solid) to atmosphere or environment; or (3) Reactor runaway. As a bioprocess engineer, you will be responsible for creating safe processes and protecting the lives and health of your colleagues.

negative: Analysis of SARS-CoV E protein ion channel activity by tuning the protein and lipid charge Abstract A partial characterization of the ion channels formed by the SARS coronavirus (CoV) envelope (E) protein was previously reported (C. Verdiá-Báguena et al., 2012 [12]). Here, we provide new significant insights on the involvement of lipids in the structure and function of the CoV E protein channel on the basis of three series of experiments. First, reversal potential measurements over a wide range of pH allow the dissection of the contributions to channel selectivity coming from ionizable residues of the protein transmembrane domain and also from the negatively charged groups of diphytanoyl phosphatidylserine (DPhPS) lipid. The corresponding effective pKas are consistent with the model pKas of the acidic residue candidates for titration. Second, the change of channel conductance with salt concentration reveals two distinct regimes (Donnan-controlled electrodiffusion and bulk-like electrodiffusion) fully compatible with the outcomes of selectivity experiments. Third, by measuring channel conductance in mixtures of neutral diphytanoyl phosphatidylcholine (DPhPC) lipids and negatively charged DPhPS lipids in low and high salt concentrations we conclude that the protein–lipid conformation in the channel is likely the same in charged and neutral lipids. Overall, the whole set of experiments supports the proteolipidic structure of SARS-CoV E channels and explains the large difference in channel conductance observed between neutral and charged membranes.

negative: Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji Abstract Tourism in island states is vulnerable to climate change because it may result in detrimental changes in relation to extreme events, sea level rise, transport and communication interruption. This study analyses adaptation to climate change by tourist resorts in Fiji, as well as their potential to reduce climate change through reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Interviews, site visitations, and an accommodation survey were undertaken. Many operators already prepare for climate-related events and therefore adapt to potential impacts resulting from climate change. Reducing emissions is not important to operators; however, decreasing energy costs for economic reasons is practised. Recommendations for further initiatives are made and synergies between the adaptation and mitigation approaches are explored.

negative: A preliminary assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on environment – A case study of China Abstract The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is seriously threatening world public health security. Currently, >200 countries and regions have been affected by the epidemic, with the number of infections and deaths still increasing. As an extreme event, the outbreak of COVID-19 has greatly damaged the global economic growth and caused a certain impact on the environment. This paper takes China as a case study, comprehensively evaluating the dynamic impact of COVID-19 on the environment. The analysis results indicate that the outbreak of COVID-19 improves China's air quality in the short term and significantly contributes to global carbon emission reduction. However, in the long run, there is no evidence that this improvement will continue. When China completely lifts the lockdown and resumes large-scale industrial production, its energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are likely to exceed the level before the event. Moreover, COVID-19 significantly reduces the concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in the atmosphere. The decline initially occurred near Wuhan and eventually spread to the whole country. The above phenomenon shows that the decreasing economic activities and traffic restrictions directly lead to the changes of China's energy consumption and further prevent the environment from pollution. The results in this study support the fact that strict quarantine measures can not only protect the public from COVID-19, but also exert a positive impact on the environment. These findings can provide a reference for other countries to assess the influence of COVID-19 on the environment.

negative: Postmortem Lung Findings in an Asthmatic with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Abstract Asthma is increasingly recognized as an underlying risk factor for severe respiratory disease in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, particularly in the United States. Here, we report the postmortem lung findings from a 37-year-old asthmatic man, who met the clinical criteria for severe acute respiratory distress syndrome and died of COVID-19 less than two weeks after presentation to the hospital. His lungs showed mucus plugging and other histologic changes attributable to asthma, as well as early diffuse alveolar damage (DAD) and a fibrinous pneumonia. The presence of DAD is similar to descriptions of autopsy lung findings from patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS), and the absence of a neutrophil-rich acute bronchopneumonia differs from the histologic changes typical of influenza. The relative contribution of mucus plugging to his hypoxemia is unknown.

negative: Dangerous Viral Pathogens of Animal Origin: Risk and Biosecurity: Zoonotic Select Agents Most of emerging infectious diseases affecting humans are of animal origin and transmitted under natural circumstances from either, wild or domestic vertebrate animals giving the way of zoonotic infection or epidemics. Zoonotic diseases carry a common ancient history between human and animals as a result of pathogen exchanges involving transgression of the species barrier. Nowadays, several agents have been targeted for their potential to be a major risk for human and animal populations and, have been characterized by their potential to be highly pathogenic and/or transmissible, and lacking of any means of protection. Those agents have been listed as “Select Agents” having the potential to pose a severe threat to both human and animal health, as well as to animal and plant products. Several of the most dangerous agents responsible of viral hemorrhagic fever are review in this chapter including: Ebola virus, Marburg virus, Rift valley fever virus, Kyasanur forest virus, Omsk hemorrhagic fever virus, Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever virus.

negative: The epidemic of 2019-novel-coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia and insights for emerging infectious diseases in the future Abstract At the end of December 2019, a novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, caused an outbreak of pneumonia spreading from Wuhan, Hubei province, to the whole country of China, which has posed great threats to public health and attracted enormous attention around the world. To date, there are no clinically approved vaccines or antiviral drugs available for these human coronavirus infections. Intensive research on the novel emerging human infectious coronaviruses is urgently needed to elucidate their route of transmission and pathogenic mechanisms, and to identify potential drug targets, which would promote the development of effective preventive and therapeutic countermeasures. Herein, we describe the epidemic and etiological characteristics of 2019-nCoV, discuss its essential biological features, including tropism and receptor usage, summarize approaches for disease prevention and treatment, and speculate on the transmission route of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Increasing Host Cellular Receptor—Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) Expression by Coronavirus may Facilitate 2019-nCoV Infection The ongoing outbreak of a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causes an epidemic of acute respiratory syndrome in humans. 2019-nCoV rapidly spread to national regions and multiple other countries, thus, pose a serious threat to public health. Recent studies show that spike (S) proteins of 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV may use the same host cell receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) for entering into host cells. The affinity between ACE2 and 2019-nCoV S is much higher than ACE2 binding to SARS-CoV S protein, explaining that why 2019-nCoV seems to be more readily transmitted from the human to human. Here, we reported that ACE2 can be significantly upregulated after infection of various viruses including SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Basing on findings here, we propose that coronavirus infection can positively induce its cellular entry receptor to accelerate their replication and spread, thus drugs targeting ACE2 expression may be prepared for the future emerging infectious diseases caused by this cluster of viruses.

negative: US Emergency Legal Responses to Novel Coronavirus: Balancing Public Health and Civil Liberties.

negative: Global Climate Changes and International Trade and Travel: Effects on Human Health Outcomes There is now near-unanimous scientific agreement that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities have increased global temperatures and changed the earth's climate. There is, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the earth will warm; or on the true impact of global warming on infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters and their inevitable public health outcomes. In addition, many other factors influence the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases in a changing environment including international trade and travel, exotic eating habits, lifestyle and residential choices, host susceptibility, and microbial adaptation. The ultimate effects of climate changes and the increased distribution of pathogens by international trade and travel will not be limited to infectious disease outbreaks in immunologically naïve populations but will also impact world food production and quality, air quality, drinking water availability and quality, immigration, urban relocation, and civil unrest. Despite the uncertainties in outcomes and their magnitudes, the active responses to climate changes in a global economy must include combinations of environmental, political, regulatory, socioeconomic, and public health measures.

negative: A poor-man's approach to the effective reproduction number: the COVID-19 case It is shown that estimates of the effective reproduction number Rt for COVID-19 using standard packages such as EPIESTIM can be reproduced very accurately using the expression Rt = c(t) /c(t + τ) , where c(t) is the incidence at time t and τ the mean value of the series interval

negative: Advances in disease diagnosis, vaccine development and other emerging methods to control pathogens in aquaculture Disease is still regarded as a major constraint to aquaculture production globally. Rapid disease diagnosis and vaccination play a huge part in the control of bacterial diseases, and there has been significant progress in both of these areas. This chapter considers the limitations of existing methods and reviews recent advances made in pathogen detection technologies and vaccine development methodologies. Future directions are discussed, including nanotechnology and reversed vaccinology.

negative: Public responses to the novel 2019 coronavirus (2019‐nCoV) in Japan: Mental health consequences and target populations

negative: Infección por coronavirus (COVID-19) en Anales de Pediatría

negative: Chapter Eleven Communicating During a Public Health Crisis “Communicating during a Public Health Crisis,” examines how communicating to the public and media during a public health or safety emergency is different. In a serious crisis, all affected people take in information differently, process information differently and act on information differently. This chapter incorporates the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) best advice for communicating during a public health crisis, including infectious disease outbreaks, bioterrorism, chemical emergencies, natural disasters, nuclear accidents and radiation releases and explosions. This chapter also explores the growing role of social media that is now being used for a variety of traditional and new purposes from distress calls to disease surveillance.

negative: White-nose syndrome is associated with increased replication of a naturally persisting coronaviruses in bats Spillover of viruses from bats to other animals may be associated with increased contact between them, as well as increased shedding of viruses by bats. Here, we tested the prediction that little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) co-infected with the M. lucifugus coronavirus (Myl-CoV) and with Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd), the fungus that causes bat white-nose syndrome (WNS), exhibit different disease severity, viral shedding and molecular responses than bats infected with only Myl-CoV or only P. destructans. We took advantage of the natural persistence of Myl-CoV in bats that were experimentally inoculated with P. destructans in a previous study. Here, we show that the intestines of virus-infected bats that were also infected with fungus contained on average 60-fold more viral RNA than bats with virus alone. Increased viral RNA in the intestines correlated with the severity of fungus-related pathology. Additionally, the intestines of bats infected with fungus exhibited different expression of mitogen-activated protein kinase pathway and cytokine related transcripts, irrespective of viral presence. Levels of coronavirus antibodies were also higher in fungal-infected bats. Our results suggest that the systemic effects of WNS may down-regulate anti-viral responses in bats persistently infected with M. lucifugus coronavirus and increase the potential of virus shedding.

negative: Extreme water-related weather events and waterborne disease Global climate change is expected to affect the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme water-related weather events such as excessive precipitation, floods, and drought. We conducted a systematic review to examine waterborne outbreaks following such events and explored their distribution between the different types of extreme water-related weather events. Four medical and meteorological databases (Medline, Embase, GeoRef, PubMed) and a global electronic reporting system (ProMED) were searched, from 1910 to 2010. Eighty-seven waterborne outbreaks involving extreme water-related weather events were identified and included, alongside 235 ProMED reports. Heavy rainfall and flooding were the most common events preceding outbreaks associated with extreme weather and were reported in 55·2% and 52·9% of accounts, respectively. The most common pathogens reported in these outbreaks were Vibrio spp. (21·6%) and Leptospira spp. (12·7%). Outbreaks following extreme water-related weather events were often the result of contamination of the drinking-water supply (53·7%). Differences in reporting of outbreaks were seen between the scientific literature and ProMED. Extreme water-related weather events represent a risk to public health in both developed and developing countries, but impact will be disproportionate and likely to compound existing health disparities.

negative: International EcoHealth One Health Congress 2016

negative: TWIRLS, an automated topic-wise inference method based on massive literature, suggests a possible mechanism via ACE2 for the pathological changes in the human host after coronavirus infection Faced with the current large-scale public health emergency, collecting, sorting, and analyzing biomedical information related to the "coronavirus" should be done as quickly as possible to gain a global perspective, which is a basic requirement for strengthening epidemic control capacity. However, for human researchers studying the viruses and the hosts, the vast amount of information available cannot be processed effectively and in a timely manner, particularly when the scientific understanding may be limited, which can further lower the information processing efficiency. We present TWIRLS, a method that can automatically acquire, organize, and classify information. Additionally, independent functional data sources can be added to build an inference system using a machine-based approach, which can provide relevant knowledge to help human researchers quickly establish subject cognition and to make more effective decisions. TWIRLS can automatically analyze more than three million words in more than 14,000 literature articles in only 4 hours. Combining with generalized gene interaction databases creates a data interface that can help researchers to further analyze the information. Using the TWIRLS system, we found that an important regulatory factor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) may be involved in the host pathological changes on binding to the coronavirus after infection. After triggering functional changes in ACE2/AT2R, an imbalance in the steady-state cytokine regulatory axis involving the Renin-Angiotensin System and IP-10 leads to a cytokine storm.

negative: Molecular and phylogenetic analysis of bovine coronavirus based on the spike glycoprotein gene Abstract Bovine coronavirus has been associated with diarrhoea in newborn calves, winter dysentery in adult cattle and respiratory tract infections in calves and feedlot cattle. In Cuba, the presence of BCoV was first reported in 2006. Since then, sporadic outbreaks have continued to occur. This study was aimed at deepening the knowledge of the evolution, molecular markers of virulence and epidemiology of BCoV in Cuba. A total of 30 samples collected between 2009 and 2011 were used for PCR amplification and direct sequencing of partial or full S gene. Sequence comparison and phylogenetic studies were conducted using partial or complete S gene sequences as phylogenetic markers. All Cuban bovine coronavirus sequences were located in a single cluster supported by 100% bootstrap and 1.00 posterior probability values. The Cuban bovine coronavirus sequences were also clustered with the USA BCoV strains corresponding to the GenBank accession numbers EF424621 and EF424623, suggesting a common origin for these viruses. This phylogenetic cluster was also the only group of sequences in which no recombination events were detected. Of the 45 amino acid changes found in the Cuban strains, four were unique.

negative: Practice of habitual and volitional health behaviors to prevent severe acute respiratory syndrome among Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong Abstract Purpose To explore factors relating to the practice of habitual and volitional health behaviors against the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) among Chinese adolescents in Hong Kong. Methods A community telephone survey was conducted with 230 Chinese adolescents. Random-digit dialing of the local residential telephone directory was used to select respondents, who were asked to provide information on their practice of SARS preventive health behaviors and associated factors as specified by the Health Belief Model. These factors included perceived threat of SARS, perceived benefits and barriers in practicing SARS preventive health behaviors, cues to action, knowledge of SARS, and self-efficacy. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to determine salient correlates of habitual and volitional health behaviors against SARS. Results About 54.8% of respondents reported practicing all three recommended habitual health behaviors. Another 47.8% indicated consistent practice of volitional health behavior of facemask-wearing to prevent SARS. Results of hierarchical regression analyses showed that habitual health behaviors against SARS were related to perceived health threat and environmental cues. For facemask-wearing, salient correlates were environmental cues, rates of SARS habitual health behaviors, younger age, and perceived health threat. Conclusions The Health Belief Model is useful in understanding Chinese adolescents’ practice of health behaviors, especially volitional health behaviors.

negative: Impacts of State-Level Policies on Social Distancing in the United States Using Aggregated Mobility Data during the COVID-19 Pandemic Social distancing has emerged as the primary mitigation strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, large-scale evaluation of the public's response to social distancing campaigns has been lacking. We used anonymized and aggregated mobility data from Google Location History users to estimate the impact of social distancing recommendations on bulk mobility among users who have opted into this service. We found that state-of-emergency declarations resulted in approximately a 10% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 25% reduction in mobility the following week. Subsequent shelter-in-place mandates provided an additional 29% reduction. Our findings provide evidence that state-wide mandates are effective in promoting social distancing within this study group.

negative: Empirical Treatment and Prevention of COVID-19 The rapid spread of severe acute respiratory coronavirus syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the population and throughout the cells within our body has been developing Another major cycle of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is expected in the coming fall, could be even more severe than the current one Therefore, effective countermeasures should be developed based on the already obtained clinical and research information about SARS-CoV-2 The aim of this review was to summarize the data on the empirical treatment of COVID-19 acquired during this SARS-CoV-2 infection cycle;this would aid the establishment of an appropriate healthcare policy to meet the challenges in the future The infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2 is characterized by common cold along with hypersensitivity reaction Thus, in addition to treating common cold, it is essential to minimize the exposure of cells to the virus and to mitigate the uncontrolled immune response A proper combination of antiviral agents, immune modulators such as prednisolone, and anticoagulants such as heparin and anti-C5a antagonists could be employed to minimize lung damage and prevent systemic involvements Finally, strategies to achieve population immunity against SARS-CoV-2 should be developed through understanding of the interaction between the immune system and the virus

negative: A Mini Review on Current Clinical and Research Findings for Children Suffering from COVID-19 Background: As the novel coronavirus triggering COVID-19 has broken out in Wuhan, China and spread rapidly worldwide, it threatens the lives of thousands of people and poses a global threat on the economies of the entire world. However, infection with COVID-19 is currently rare in children. Objective To discuss the latest findings and research focus on the basis of characteristics of children confirmed with COVID-19, and provide an insight into the future treatment and research direction. Methods: We searched the terms "COVID-19 OR coronavirus OR SARS-CoV-2" AND "Pediatric OR children" on PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, NIH, CDC, and CNKI. The authors also reviewed the guidelines published on Chinese CDC and Chinese NHC. Results: We included 25 published literature references related to the epidemiology, clinical manifestation, accessary examination, treatment, and prognosis of pediatric patients with COVID-19. Conclusion: The numbers of children with COVID-19 pneumonia infection are small, and most of them come from family aggregation. Symptoms are mainly mild or even asymptomatic, which allow children to be a risk factor for transmission. Thus, strict epidemiological history screening is needed for early diagnosis and segregation. This holds especially for infants, who are more susceptible to infection than other age groups in pediatric age, but have most likely subtle and unspecific symptoms. They need to be paid more attention to. CT examination is a necessity for screening the suspected cases, because most of the pediatric patients are mild cases, and plain chest X-ray do not usually show the lesions or the detailed features. Therefore, early chest CT examination combined with pathogenic detection is a recommended clinical diagnosis scheme in children. The risk factors which may suggest severe or critical progress for children are: Fast respiratory rate and/or; lethargy and drowsiness mental state and/or; lactate progressively increasing and/or; imaging showed bilateral or multi lobed infiltration, pleural effusion or rapidly expending of lesions in a short period of time and/or; less than 3 months old or those who underly diseases. For those critical pediatric patients with positive SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, polypnea may be the most common symptom. For treatment, the elevated PCT seen in children in contrast to adults suggests that the underlying coinfection/secondary infection may be more common in pediatric patients and appropriate antibacterial treatment should be considered. Once cytokine storm is found in these patients, anti-autoimmune or blood-purifying therapy should be given in time. Furthermore, effective isolation measures and appropriate psychological comfort need to be provided timely.

negative: Pandemics, regional outbreaks, and sudden-onset disasters Pandemics of influenza, cholera, and plague are part of global history. Regional epidemics and pandemics of infectious diseases, primarily influenza A, continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality while remaining unpredictable in nature. Sudden-onset disasters such as earthquakes and floods occur with little warning. The consequences of climate change and environmental degradation can only be expected to increase the incidence of some infectious diseases and weather-related crises, adding to the unpredictability of such events. Health leaders, both in public health and healthcare, need to understand the international context and how coordination and response across or within jurisdictions will improve the likelihood of successful management of challenges. Public health emergencies respect no borders or political structures. The ability of institutions to adapt quickly can make a difference in health outcomes and a community's trust in those institutions.

negative: Genomic analysis reveals age-dependent innate immune responses to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. The relationship between immunosenescence and the host response to virus infection is poorly understood at the molecular level. Two different patterns of pulmonary host responses to virus were observed when gene expression profiles from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-infected young mice that show minimal disease were compared to those from SARS-CoV-infected aged mice that develop pneumonitis. In young mice, genes related to cellular development, cell growth, and cell cycle were downregulated during peak viral replication, and these transcripts returned to basal levels as virus was cleared. In contrast, aged mice had a greater number of upregulated immune response and cell-to-cell signaling genes, and the expression of many genes was sustained even after viral clearance, suggesting an exacerbated host response to virus. Interestingly, in SARS-CoV-infected aged mice, a subset of genes, including Tnfa, Il6, Ccl2, Ccl3, Cxcl10, and Ifng, was induced in a biphasic pattern that correlated with peak viral replication and a subsequent influx of lymphocytes and severe histopathologic changes in the lungs. We provide insight into gene expression profiles and molecular signatures underlying immunosenescence in the context of the host response to viral infection.

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus M Protein Inhibits Type I Interferon Production by Impeding the Formation of TRAF3·TANK·TBK1/IKKϵ Complex Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus is highly pathogenic in humans and evades innate immunity at multiple levels. It has evolved various strategies to counteract the production and action of type I interferons, which mobilize the front-line defense against viral infection. In this study we demonstrate that SARS coronavirus M protein inhibits gene transcription of type I interferons. M protein potently antagonizes the activation of interferon-stimulated response element-dependent transcription by double-stranded RNA, RIG-I, MDA5, TBK1, IKKϵ, and virus-induced signaling adaptor (VISA) but has no influence on the transcriptional activity of this element when IRF3 or IRF7 is overexpressed. M protein physically associates with RIG-I, TBK1, IKKϵ, and TRAF3 and likely sequesters some of them in membrane-associated cytoplasmic compartments. Consequently, the expression of M protein prevents the formation of TRAF3·TANK·TBK1/IKKϵ complex and thereby inhibits TBK1/IKKϵ-dependent activation of IRF3/IRF7 transcription factors. Taken together, our findings reveal a new mechanism by which SARS coronavirus circumvents the production of type I interferons.

negative: MARKOVIAN RANDOM WALK MODELING AND VISUALIZATION OF THE EPIDEMIC SPREAD OF COVID-19 The epidemic spread of CoVID-19 has resulted in confirmed cases of viral respiratory illness in more than 1.4 million people around the world as of April 7th, 2020. However, different regions have experienced the spread of this disease differently. Here, we develop a Markovian random-walk spatial extension of a quarantine-enhanced SIR model to measure, visualize and forecast the effect of susceptible population density, testing rate, and social distancing and quarantine policies on epidemic spreading. The model is used to simulate the spread of CoVID-19 in the regions of Hubei, China; South Korea; Iran; and Spain. The model allows for evaluating the results of different policies both quantitatively and visually as means of better understanding and controlling the spread of the disease.

negative: Abstract for the 8th International congress, Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics of Infectious Diseases

negative: World Economic Prospects Monthly Overview: Coronavirus to cut global growth to new lows ▀ The rapid spread of coronavirus will weaken China's GDP growth sharply in the short term, causing disruption for the rest of the world. We now expect global GDP growth to slow to just 1.9% y/y in Q1 this year and have lowered our forecast for 2020 as a whole from 2.5% to 2.3%, down from 2.6% in 2019. ▀ Prior to the coronavirus outbreak, there had been signs that the worst was over for both world trade and the manufacturing sector. However, this tentative optimism has been dashed by the current disruption. ▀ While the near‐term impact of the virus is uncertain, the disruption to China will clearly be significant in Q1 – we expect Chinese GDP growth to plunge to just 3.8% y/y. Even though growth there will rebound in Q2 and Q3, it will take time for the loss in activity to be fully recovered and we now expect GDP growth of just 5.4% for 2020 as a whole, a downward revision of 0.6pp from last month. ▀ Weaker Chinese imports and tourism and disruption to global supply chains will take a toll on the rest of the world, particularly in the Asia‐Pacific region. And the shock will exacerbate the ongoing slowdown in the US and may result in the eurozone barely expanding for a second quarter running in Q1. ▀ Weaker oil demand in the short term has prompted us to lower our Brent oil price forecast. We have cut our projection for growth in crude demand in 2020 by 0.2m b/d to 0.9 mb/d and now forecast Brent crude will average $62.4pb in 2020, down from about $65pb in our January forecast. ▀ Quarterly global growth is likely to strengthen a little in H2 this year as the disruption fades and firms make up for the lost output earlier in the year and the effect of China's policy response starts to feed through. But for 2020 overall, global growth is now likely to be just 2.3%, 0.2pp weaker than previously assumed as a result of the epidemic.

negative: Detection of Recombinant Rousettus Bat Coronavirus GCCDC1 in Lesser Dawn Bats (Eonycteris spelaea) in Singapore Rousettus bat coronavirus GCCDC1 (RoBat-CoV GCCDC1) is a cross-family recombinant coronavirus that has previously only been reported in wild-caught bats in Yúnnan, China. We report the persistence of a related strain in a captive colony of lesser dawn bats captured in Singapore. Genomic evidence of the virus was detected using targeted enrichment sequencing, and further investigated using deeper, unbiased high throughput sequencing. RoBat-CoV GCCDC1 Singapore shared 96.52% similarity with RoBat-CoV GCCDC1 356 (NC_030886) at the nucleotide level, and had a high prevalence in the captive bat colony. It was detected at five out of six sampling time points across the course of 18 months. A partial segment 1 from an ancestral Pteropine orthoreovirus, p10, makes up the recombinant portion of the virus, which shares high similarity with previously reported RoBat-CoV GCCDC1 strains that were detected in Yúnnan, China. RoBat-CoV GCCDC1 is an intriguing, cross-family recombinant virus, with a geographical range that expands farther than was previously known. The discovery of RoBat-CoV GCCDC1 in Singapore indicates that this recombinant coronavirus exists in a broad geographical range, and can persist in bat colonies long-term.

negative: Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Disguise Novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pandemic is currently one of the most influential topics as it not only impacts the field of medicine but most importantly, it affects the lives of many individuals throughout the world. We report an interesting 2019-nCoV case in a tertiary community hospital with the initial concern of acute pyelonephritis without respiratory symptoms that ultimately led to the quarantine of a number of healthcare providers. This case emphasizes the importance of radiological evidence in diagnosing 2019-nCoV in the setting of an initial atypical presentation. It also serves as an example of how healthcare providers may need to increase their suspicion for COVID-19 to ensure self-protection and prompt diagnosis in the era of an ongoing pandemic.

negative: Major Issues of Air Pollution Environmental issues change from place to place and time to time. The issues include local as well as global issues. The understanding of issues is necessary to find solution. Air pollution issues have changed over a period of time. Issues like atmospheric brown cloud, climate change, hazardous air pollutants, black/muddy snow which are hardly discussed few decades back have now gaining importance. This chapter elaborates major issues due to air pollution.

negative: An approach to the photocatalytic mechanism in the TiO(2)-nanomaterials microorganism interface for the control of infectious processes The approach of this timely review considers the current literature that is focused on the interface nanostructure/cell-wall microorganism to understand the annihilation mechanism. Morphological studies use optical and electronic microscopes to determine the physical damage on the cell-wall and the possible cell lysis that confirms the viability and microorganism death. The key parameters of the tailoring the surface of the photoactive nanostructures such as the metal functionalization with bacteriostatic properties, hydrophilicity, textural porosity, morphology and the formation of heterojunction systems, can achieve the effective eradication of the microorganisms under natural conditions, ranging from practical to applications in environment, agriculture, and so on. However, to our knowledge, a comprehensive review of the microorganism/nanomaterial interface approach has rarely been conducted. The final remarks point the ideal photocatalytic way for the effective prevention/eradication of microorganisms, considering the resistance that the microorganism could develop without the appropriate regulatory aspects for human and ecosystem safety.

negative: Knowledge-based repositioning of the anti-HCV direct antiviral agent Sofosbuvir as SARS-CoV-2 treatment The new human coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 is a positive-sense RNA virus for which no specific drugs are currently available. A knowledge-based analysis strongly suggests a possible repositioning of the anti-HCV direct antiviral agent (DAA) Sofosbuvir as treatment for SARS-CoV-2. Indeed, the RNA-dependent RNA-polymerases (RdRp) of the two viruses show high sequence and structural homology, supporting the likelihood of binding the Sofosbuvir molecule with similar efficiency. Such a repositioning would allow the containment of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and limit the progression of disease to potentially deadly COVID19.

negative: Epidemiology and Control: Principles, Practice and Programs Infectious disease epidemiology is concerned with the occurrence of both infection and disease in populations and the factors that determine their frequency, spread, expression and distribution. Viruses show characteristic infectivity, virulence and pathogenicity. The most well established host factors are age, sex and race, but other host biological and behavioral factors affect acquisition of viral infection and/or its course and manifestations. The physical, chemical and biological environment operates on the virus itself and may also alter the host biological or behavioral response. Viral infections have incubation periods lasting days or weeks, while their pathologic sequelae may not manifest for years or decades. Likewise the degree or intensity of host response and clinical expression may range from largely inapparent to highly lethal. The degree of cell, tissue and organ specificity is high. Common syndromes involve the respiratory, gastrointestinal, and central nervous systems, the liver, and mucocutaneous surfaces. Vertical transmission may produce a variety of congenital and perinatal conditions. Viruses spread by multiple modes, using nearly every bodily surface or fluid as a route of exit or entry, either by direct contact or indirectly through an animal vector or other inanimate vehicle. Different viral Infections occur nearly ubiquitously or sporadically; they may be present continuously throughout a population (endemic) or occur in seasonal rhythm or in unexpectedly explosive form (epidemic). Many viruses are refractory to all known therapeutic agents, while for a few, the increasing number of highly effective agents holds great promise. Vaccines have produced many historical successes including the ultimate goal of eradication, but many viral infections continue to elude effective vaccine development. Major government and private sector programs for treatment and prevention have raised expectations of successful control for certain widespread and serious viral diseases; however, in every case a unique set of scientific, socioeconomic, political and behavioral barriers remains to be overcome.

negative: Rapid metagenomic characterization of a case of imported COVID-19 in Cambodia Rapid production and publication of pathogen genome sequences during emerging disease outbreaks provide crucial public health information. In resource-limited settings, especially near an outbreak epicenter, conventional deep sequencing or bioinformatics are often challenging. Here we successfully used metagenomic next generation sequencing on an iSeq100 Illumina platform paired with an open-source bioinformatics pipeline to quickly characterize Cambodia’s first case of COVID-2019.

negative: Going global – Travel and the 2019 novel coronavirus

negative: Powerful Sequence Similarity Search Methods and In-Depth Manual Analyses Can Identify Remote Homologs in Many Apparently “Orphan” Viral Proteins The genome sequences of new viruses often contain many “orphan” or “taxon-specific” proteins apparently lacking homologs. However, because viral proteins evolve very fast, commonly used sequence similarity detection methods such as BLAST may overlook homologs. We analyzed a data set of proteins from RNA viruses characterized as “genus specific” by BLAST. More powerful methods developed recently, such as HHblits or HHpred (available through web-based, user-friendly interfaces), could detect distant homologs of a quarter of these proteins, suggesting that these methods should be used to annotate viral genomes. In-depth manual analyses of a subset of the remaining sequences, guided by contextual information such as taxonomy, gene order, or domain cooccurrence, identified distant homologs of another third. Thus, a combination of powerful automated methods and manual analyses can uncover distant homologs of many proteins thought to be orphans. We expect these methodological results to be also applicable to cellular organisms, since they generally evolve much more slowly than RNA viruses. As an application, we reanalyzed the genome of a bee pathogen, Chronic bee paralysis virus (CBPV). We could identify homologs of most of its proteins thought to be orphans; in each case, identifying homologs provided functional clues. We discovered that CBPV encodes a domain homologous to the Alphavirus methyltransferase-guanylyltransferase; a putative membrane protein, SP24, with homologs in unrelated insect viruses and insect-transmitted plant viruses having different morphologies (cileviruses, higreviruses, blunerviruses, negeviruses); and a putative virion glycoprotein, ORF2, also found in negeviruses. SP24 and ORF2 are probably major structural components of the virions.

negative: Identification of human leukemia antigen A*0201-restricted epitopes derived from epidermal growth factor pathway substrate number 8 T-cell-mediated immunotherapy of hematological malignancies requires selection of targeted tumor-associated antigens and T-cell epitopes contained in these tumor proteins. Epidermal growth factor receptor pathway substrate 8 (EPS8), whose function is pivotal for tumor proliferation, progression and metastasis, has been found to be overexpressed in most human tumor types, while its expression in normal tissue is low. The aim of the present study was to identify human leukemia antigen (HLA)-A*0201-restricted epitopes of EPS8 by using a reverse immunology approach. To achieve this, computer algorithms were used to predict HLA-A*0201 molecular binding, proteasome cleavage patterns as well as translocation of transporters associated with antigen processing. Candidate peptides were experimentally validated by T2 binding affinity assay and brefeldin-A decay assay. The functional avidity of peptide-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) induced from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of healthy volunteers were evaluated by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot assay and a cytotoxicity assay. Four peptides, designated as P455, P92, P276 and P360, had high affinity and stability of binding towards the HLA-A*0201 molecule, and specific CTLs induced by them significantly responded to the corresponding peptides and secreted IFN-γ. At the same time, the CTLs were able to specifically lyse EPS8-expressing cell lines in an HLA-A*0201-restricted manner. The present study demon-strated that P455, P92, P276 and P360 were CTL epitopes of EPS8, and were able to be used for epitope-defined adoptive T-cell transfer and multi-epitope-based vaccine design.

negative: Afectación clínica y sintomatológica en pacientes mayores de 65 años por COVID-19

negative: A virus that has gone viral: Amino acid mutation in S protein of Indian isolate of Coronavirus COVID-19 might impact receptor binding and thus infectivity Since 2002, beta coronaviruses (CoV) have caused three zoonotic outbreaks, SARS-CoV in 2002, MERS-CoV in 2012, and the recent outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 late in 2019 (also named as COVID-19 or novel coronavirus 2019 or nCoV2019. Spike(S) protein, one of the structural proteins of this virus plays key role in receptor (ACE2) binding and thus virus entry. Thus, this protein has attracted scientists for detailed study and therapeutic targeting. As the 2019 novel coronavirus takes its course throughout the world, more and more sequence analyses are been done and genome sequences getting deposited in various databases. From India two clinical isolates have been sequenced and the full genome deposited in GenBank. We have performed sequence analyses of the spike protein of the Indian isolates and compared with that of the Wuhan, China (where the outbreak was first reported). While all the sequences of Wuhan isolates are identical, we found point mutations in the Indian isolates. Out of the two isolates one was found to harbour a mutation in its Receptor binding domain (RBD) at position 407. At this site arginine (a positively charged amino acid) was replaced by isoleucine (a hydrophobic amino acid that is also a C-beta branched amino acid). This mutation has been seen to change the secondary structure of the protein at that region and this can potentially alter receptor ding of the virus. Although this finding needs further validation and more sequencing, the information might be useful in rational drug designing and vaccine engineering.

negative: Coronavirus latest: global infections pass 100,000.

negative: Weathering COVID-19 Storm: Successful Control Measures of Five Asian Countries • COVID-19 control measures taken by five Asian countries first hit by coronavirus; • China took extremely aggressive measures of lockdowns and closing business; • Singapore took proactive measures of border controls and extensive contact tracing; • Taiwan seized border control and strict home quarantine with the use of big data; • South Korea executed widespread testing and contact tracing; • Japan promoted measures of social distancing.

negative: Chapter 8 Transportation and _______ Abstract This chapter examines some topics that have not received as much attention, at least not concerning the potential roles for transportation in mitigating or avoiding public health impacts.

negative: Binding of SARS-CoV-2 and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2: clinical implications

negative: Great Plains Societal Considerations: Impacts and Consequences, Vulnerability and Risk, Adaptive Capacity, Response Options A variety of factors related to climate variability and change will impact the Great Plains across human and ecological communities. The changes and associated stress are triggering response strategies and other mitigation and adaptation measures from land managers, government officials and staff, and various industries. The impacts and responses address water, energy, and other essential resources for both human and environmental well-being.

negative: Chapter 7 Long-Term Virus Evolution in Nature Abstract Viruses spread to give rise to epidemics and pandemics, and some key parameters that include virus and host population numbers determine virus persistence or extinction in nature. Viruses evolve at different rates of evolution depending on the polymerase copying fidelity during genome replication. Calculated rates of evolution in nature vary depending on the time interval between virus isolations. In particular, intra-host evolution is generally more rapid that inter-host evolution and several possible mechanisms for this difference are considered. The mechanisms by which the error-prone viruses evolve render very unlikely the operation of a molecular clock (constant rate of incorporation of mutations in the evolving genomes). Several computational methods are reviewed that permit the alignment of viral sequences and the establishment of phylogenetic relationships among viruses. The evolution of virus in the form of dynamic mutant clouds in each infected individual, together with multiple environmental influences, render the emergence and reemergence of viral pathogens an unpredictable event, another example of biological complexity.

negative: The Stirling Protocol – Putting the environment at the heart of prosperity and social inclusion Abstract While the global coronavirus crisis impacts society and the economy in a myriad of ways, it provides, what is likely to be, a once in a lifetime opportunity for us to rethink our response to climate change. According to the 2020 Global Risk Register, extreme weather and climate action failure are the two most likely and impactful risks to the global economy, which now more than ever needs to be avoided. Addressing the major challenges that we face from climate change can often appear to conflict with economic priorities. Add to this the fact that environmental mitigation steps can inadvertently exclude sections of the population and the enormity and complexity of climate change responses can result in paralysis. In contrast, the Stirling Protocol provides the framework for rapid, effective action and comprises three pillars: Environment, Economy & Inclusion. By addressing and balancing these three pillars, the simple protocol can be adopted throughout organisations putting the environment at the heart of sustainable prosperity and inclusion and provide a benchmark for positive action.

negative: Pandemic Politics: Timing State-Level Social Distancing Responses to COVID-19 Social distancing policies are critical but economically painful measures to flatten the curve against emergent infectious diseases. As the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19 spread throughout the United States in early 2020, the federal government issued social distancing recommendations but left to the states the most difficult and consequential decisions restricting behavior, such as canceling events, closing schools and businesses, and issuing stay-at-home orders. We present an original dataset of state-level social distancing policy responses to the epidemic and explore how political partisanship, COVID-19 caseload, and policy diffusion explain the timing of governors' decisions to mandate social distancing. An event history analysis of five social distancing policies across all fifty states reveals the most important predictors are political: all else equal, Republican governors and governors from states with more Trump supporters were slower to adopt social distancing policies. These delays are likely to produce significant, on-going harm to public health.

negative: Inhibitory effects of magnolol and honokiol on human calcitonin aggregation Amyloid formation is associated with multiple amyloidosis diseases. Human calcitonin (hCT) is a typical amyloidogenic peptide, its aggregation is associated with medullary carcinoma of the thyroid (MTC), and also limits its clinical application. Magnolia officinalis is a traditional Chinese herbal medicine; its two major polyphenol components, magnolol (Mag) and honokiol (Hon), have displayed multiple functions. Polyphenols like flavonoids and their derivatives have been extensively studied as amyloid inhibitors. However, the anti-amyloidogenic property of a biphenyl backbone containing polyphenols such as Mag and Hon has not been reported. In this study, these two compounds were tested for their effects on hCT aggregation. We found that Mag and Hon both inhibited the amyloid formation of hCT, whereas Mag showed a stronger inhibitory effect; moreover, they both dose-dependently disassembled preformed hCT aggregates. Further immuno-dot blot and dynamic light scattering studies suggested Mag and Hon suppressed the aggregation of hCT both at the oligomerization and the fibrillation stages, while MTT-based and dye-leakage assays demonstrated that Mag and Hon effectively reduced cytotoxicity caused by hCT aggregates. Furthermore, isothermal titration calorimetry indicated Mag and Hon both interact with hCT. Together, our study suggested a potential anti-amyloidogenic property of these two compounds and their structure related derivatives.

negative: Singing Away the Social Distancing Blues: Art Therapy in a Time of Coronavirus This essay explores the abundance of art flourishing as a therapeutic antidote to the COVID-19 pandemic and panic arising across the world. Specifically, I discuss how the act of viewing, making, and sharing music, street art, paintings, graphic art, cinema, and digital videos can serve as a therapeutic vehicle for empowerment, solidarity, and collective action as most human beings strive to adopt practices of extreme social distancing as the recommended community mitigation strategy to help save lives before a vaccine is developed. This essay explores how therapeutic art-making can promote physical, mental, and social health at a time in history when all of these are under threat by COVID-19. I root these claims in theoretical literature from art therapy, as well as in inspiring and heart-warming examples of the beautiful coronavirus art that has already begun to fill our digital landscape with motivation, resiliency, and hope, though the crisis is still in its early stages.

negative: Voice from China: nomenclature of the novel coronavirus and related diseases

negative: Infection and Rapid Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Ferrets The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in China and rapidly spread worldwide. To prevent SARS-CoV-2 dissemination, understanding the in vivo characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 is a high priority. We report a ferret model of SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission that recapitulates aspects of human disease. SARS-CoV-2-infected ferrets exhibit elevated body temperatures and virus replication. Although fatalities were not observed, SARS-CoV-2-infected ferrets shed virus in nasal washes, saliva, urine, and feces up to 8 days post-infection. At 2 days post-contact, SARS-CoV-2 was detected in all naive direct contact ferrets. Furthermore, a few naive indirect contact ferrets were positive for viral RNA, suggesting airborne transmission. Viral antigens were detected in nasal turbinate, trachea, lungs, and intestine with acute bronchiolitis present in infected lungs. Thus, ferrets represent an infection and transmission animal model of COVID-19 that may facilitate development of SARS-CoV-2 therapeutics and vaccines.

negative: Identification and characterization of Coronaviridae genomes from Vietnamese bats and rats based on conserved protein domains The Coronaviridae family of viruses encompasses a group of pathogens with a zoonotic potential as observed from previous outbreaks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Accordingly, it seems important to identify and document the coronaviruses in animal reservoirs, many of which are uncharacterized and potentially missed by more standard diagnostic assays. A combination of sensitive deep sequencing technology and computational algorithms is essential for virus surveillance, especially for characterizing novel- or distantly related virus strains. Here, we explore the use of profile Hidden Markov Model-defined Pfam protein domains (Pfam domains) encoded by new sequences as a Coronaviridae sequence classification tool. The encoded domains are used first in a triage to identify potential Coronaviridae sequences and then processed using a Random Forest method to classify the sequences to the Coronaviridae genus level. The application of this algorithm on Coronaviridae genomes assembled from agnostic deep sequencing data from surveillance of bats and rats in Dong Thap province (Vietnam) identified thirty-four Alphacoronavirus and eleven Betacoronavirus genomes. This collection of bat and rat coronaviruses genomes provided essential information on the local diversity of coronaviruses and substantially expanded the number of coronavirus full genomes available from bat and rats and may facilitate further molecular studies on this group of viruses.

negative: Tourism in the twenty-first century: contemporary tourism in an uncertain world

negative: Conformational changes in the spike glycoprotein of murine coronavirus are induced at 37 degrees C either by soluble murine CEACAM1 receptors or by pH 8. The spike glycoprotein (S) of the murine coronavirus mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) binds to viral murine CEACAM receptor glycoproteins and causes membrane fusion. On virions, the 180-kDa S glycoprotein of the MHV-A59 strain can be cleaved by trypsin to form the 90-kDa N-terminal receptor-binding subunit (S1) and the 90-kDa membrane-anchored fusion subunit (S2). Incubation of virions with purified, soluble CEACAM1a receptor proteins at 37 degrees C and pH 6.5 neutralizes virus infectivity (B. D. Zelus, D. R. Wessner, R. K. Williams, M. N. Pensiero, F. T. Phibbs, M. deSouza, G. S. Dveksler, and K. V. Holmes, J. Virol. 72:7237-7244, 1998). We used liposome flotation and protease sensitivity assays to investigate the mechanism of receptor-induced, temperature-dependent virus neutralization. After incubation with soluble receptor at 37 degrees C and pH 6.5, virions became hydrophobic and bound to liposomes. Receptor binding induced a profound, apparently irreversible conformational change in S on the viral envelope that allowed S2, but not S1, to be degraded by trypsin at 4 degrees C. Various murine CEACAM proteins triggered conformational changes in S on recombinant MHV strains expressing S glycoproteins of MHV-A59 or MHV-4 (MHV-JHM) with the same specificities as seen for virus neutralization and virus-receptor activities. Increased hydrophobicity of virions and conformational change in S2 of MHV-A59 could also be induced by incubating virions at pH 8 and 37 degrees C, without soluble receptor. Surprisingly, the S protein of recombinant MHV-A59 virions with a mutation, H716D, that precluded cleavage between S1 and S2 could also be triggered to undergo a conformational change at 37 degrees C by soluble receptor at neutral pH or by pH 8 alone. A novel 120-kDa subunit was formed following incubation of the receptor-triggered S(A59)H716D virions with trypsin at 4 degrees C. The data show that unlike class 1 fusion glycoproteins of other enveloped viruses, the murine coronavirus S protein can be triggered to a membrane-binding conformation at 37 degrees C either by soluble receptor at neutral pH or by alkaline pH alone, without requiring previous activation by cleavage between S1 and S2.

negative: Dr. Wu Lien Teh, plague fighter and father of the Chinese public health system

negative: Radiological findings from 81 patients with COVID-19 pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study Summary Background A cluster of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were successively reported in Wuhan, China. We aimed to describe the CT findings across different timepoints throughout the disease course. Methods Patients with COVID-19 pneumonia (confirmed by next-generation sequencing or RT-PCR) who were admitted to one of two hospitals in Wuhan and who underwent serial chest CT scans were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were grouped on the basis of the interval between symptom onset and the first CT scan: group 1 (subclinical patients; scans done before symptom onset), group 2 (scans done ≤1 week after symptom onset), group 3 (>1 week to 2 weeks), and group 4 (>2 weeks to 3 weeks). Imaging features and their distribution were analysed and compared across the four groups. Findings 81 patients admitted to hospital between Dec 20, 2019, and Jan 23, 2020, were retrospectively enrolled. The cohort included 42 (52%) men and 39 (48%) women, and the mean age was 49·5 years (SD 11·0). The mean number of involved lung segments was 10·5 (SD 6·4) overall, 2·8 (3·3) in group 1, 11·1 (5·4) in group 2, 13·0 (5·7) in group 3, and 12·1 (5·9) in group 4. The predominant pattern of abnormality observed was bilateral (64 [79%] patients), peripheral (44 [54%]), ill-defined (66 [81%]), and ground-glass opacification (53 [65%]), mainly involving the right lower lobes (225 [27%] of 849 affected segments). In group 1 (n=15), the predominant pattern was unilateral (nine [60%]) and multifocal (eight [53%]) ground-glass opacities (14 [93%]). Lesions quickly evolved to bilateral (19 [90%]), diffuse (11 [52%]) ground-glass opacity predominance (17 [81%]) in group 2 (n=21). Thereafter, the prevalence of ground-glass opacities continued to decrease (17 [57%] of 30 patients in group 3, and five [33%] of 15 in group 4), and consolidation and mixed patterns became more frequent (12 [40%] in group 3, eight [53%] in group 4). Interpretation COVID-19 pneumonia manifests with chest CT imaging abnormalities, even in asymptomatic patients, with rapid evolution from focal unilateral to diffuse bilateral ground-glass opacities that progressed to or co-existed with consolidations within 1–3 weeks. Combining assessment of imaging features with clinical and laboratory findings could facilitate early diagnosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. Funding None.

negative: Effectively Communicating Climate Science beyond Academia: Harnessing the Heterogeneity of Climate Knowledge Approaches to communicating climate science beyond academia are necessary for enhancing salience, understanding, and engagement and accelerating action. This Primer discusses the heterogeneous manner in which climate change messaging is received by different audiences, how social scientific approaches could help to better tailor climate change messaging to this varied landscape, and how attempts to close this gap must consider the emotional and affective dimensions of climate messaging. We explore how the use of narratives can enhance effective climate science communication and emphasize the importance of evidence-based advocacy in the current era of global challenges, uncertainty, and post-truth.

negative: Relevance of enriched expression of SARS-CoV-2 binding receptor ACE2 in gastrointestinal tissue with pathogenesis of digestive symptoms, diabetes-associated mortality, and disease recurrence in COVID-19 patients Introduction COVID-19, is caused by a new strain of coronavirus called SARS-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is a positive sense single strand RNA virus. In humans, it binds to angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) with the help a structure on its surface called the S-spike. COVID-19 poses intriguing issues with imperative relevance to clinicians. The pathogenesis of GI symptoms, diabetes-associated mortality, and disease recurrence in COVID-19 are of particular relevance because they cannot be sufficiently explained from the existing knowledge of the viral diseases. Tissue specific variation of ACE2 expression in healthy individuals can help in understanding the pathophysiological basis the aforementioned collection of symptoms. Materials and Methods The data were downloaded from the Human Protein Atlas available at (https://www.proteinatlas.org/search/ACE2) and the tissue specific expression (both mRNA and protein) of ACE2 as yielded from the studies with RNA sequencing and immunohistochemistry (IHC) was analyzed as a function of the various components of the digestive tract. A digestive system specific functional enrichment map of ACE2 gene was created using g:profiler (https://biit.cs.ut.ee/gprofiler/gost) utility and the data were visualized using Cytoscape software, version 3.7.2 (https://cytoscape.org/). Results The correlated expression (genomic and proteomic) of ACE2 (to which SARS-CoV-2 binds through the S-spike) was found to be enriched in the lower gastrointestinal tract (GIT) (highest in small intestine, followed by colon and rectum), and was undetectable in the upper GIT components: mouth cavity (tongue, oral mucosa, and salivary glands), esophagus, and stomach. High expression of ACE2 was noted in the glandular cells as well as in the enterocytes in the lining epithelium (including brush border epithelium). Among other digestive system organs, gallbladder (GB) showed high expression of ACE2 in glandular cells, while any protein expression was undetectable in liver and pancreas. Conclusions Based on the findings of this study and supportive evidence from the literature we propose that a SARS-CoV-2 binding with ACE2 mediates dysregulation of the sodium dependent nutrient transporters and hence may be a plausible basis for the digestive symptoms in COVID-19 patients. ACE2 mediated dysregulation of sodium dependent glucose transporter (SGLT1 or SLC5A1) in the intestinal epithelium also links it to the pathogenesis of diabetes mellitus which can be a possible reason for the associated mortality in COVID-19 patients with diabetes. High expression of ACE2 in mucosal cells of the intestine and GB make these organs potential sites for the virus entry and replication. Continued replication of the virus at these ACE2 enriched sites may be a basis for the disease recurrence reported in some, thought to be cured, patients. Highlights SARS-CoV-2 binding receptor ACE2 expression is enriched in human intestine ACE2 regulates neutral amino acid (B0AT1) and glucose transporter (SGLT1) in intestinal epithelium Mucus secreted from GI cells may protect SARS-CoV-2 from harsh pH levels of the digestive juices Continued replication of SARS-CoV-2 in GI cells may cause disease recurrence Graphical Abstract

negative: Airport Emergency Planning, Part II: Emergency Management Functions Airport Emergency Planning, Part II provides an overview of the core functions within airport emergency management, which include command, control, and communications (C3) and law enforcement, firefighting, public notification, emergency medical response, and resource management. Many airport emergencies require public notifications and, in some cases, Protective Actions, such as evacuation and shelter-in-place. Police, fire, and other Emergency Medical Services (EMS) comprise the core first responders to nearly any emergency, and these personnel have numerous responsibilities throughout the Airport Emergency Plan (AEP). The National Incident Management System, created after 9/11, is the standard method of managing disasters, incidents, and other events in the United States. It is based on three principles: Incident Command System (ICS), Multi-Agency Coordination, and Public Information. The five functions of ICS are command, operations, planning, logistics, and finance/administration. For some incidents, an intelligence/investigative function is added.

negative: The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society. In contrast, the benefits of these policies, in the form of infections that did not occur, cannot be directly observed and are currently understood through process-based simulations. Here, we compile new data on 1,659 local, regional, and national anti-contagion policies recently deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, and the United States (US). We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of any policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 42% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies collectively have had significant effects slowing this growth. Our results suggest that similar policies may have different impacts on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages now deployed are achieving large, beneficial, and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that, to date, current policies have already prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million infections across these six countries. These findings may help inform whether or when these ongoing policies should be lifted or intensified, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported.

negative: Potential effect of blood purification therapy in reducing cytokine storm as a late complication of critically ill COVID-19

negative: Quantifying human mobility behavior changes in response to non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States Ever since the first case of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in Wuhan, China, social distancing has been promoted worldwide, including the United States. It is one of the major community mitigation strategies, also known as non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, our understanding is remaining limited in how people practice social distancing. In this study, we construct a Social Distancing Index (SDI) to evaluate people's mobility pattern changes along with the spread of COVID-19. We utilize an integrated dataset of mobile device location data for the contiguous United States plus Alaska and Hawaii over a 100-day period from January 1, 2020 to April 9, 2020. The major findings are: 1) the declaration of the national emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak greatly encouraged social distancing and the mandatory stay-at-home orders in most states further strengthened the practice; 2) the states with more confirmed cases have taken more active and timely responses in practicing social distancing; 3) people in the states with fewer confirmed cases did not pay much attention to maintaining social distancing and some states, e.g., Wyoming, North Dakota, and Montana, already began to practice less social distancing despite the high increasing speed of confirmed cases; 4) some counties with the highest infection rates are not performing much social distancing, e.g., Randolph County and Dougherty County in Georgia, and some counties began to practice less social distancing right after the increasing speed of confirmed cases went down, e.g., in Blaine County, Idaho, which may be dangerous as well.

negative: Stabilized coronavirus spikes are resistant to conformational changes induced by receptor recognition or proteolysis Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) emerged in 2002 as a highly transmissible pathogenic human betacoronavirus. The viral spike glycoprotein (S) utilizes angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as a host protein receptor and mediates fusion of the viral and host membranes, making S essential to viral entry into host cells and host species tropism. As SARS-CoV enters host cells, the viral S is believed to undergo a number of conformational transitions as it is cleaved by host proteases and binds to host receptors. We recently developed stabilizing mutations for coronavirus spikes that prevent the transition from the pre-fusion to post-fusion states. Here, we present cryo-EM analyses of a stabilized trimeric SARS-CoV S, as well as the trypsin-cleaved, stabilized S, and its interactions with ACE2. Neither binding to ACE2 nor cleavage by trypsin at the S1/S2 cleavage site impart large conformational changes within stabilized SARS-CoV S or expose the secondary cleavage site, S2′.

negative: Coronavirus lockdowns have changed the way Earth moves

negative: Aerodynamic Characteristics and RNA Concentration of SARS-CoV-2 Aerosol in Wuhan Hospitals during COVID-19 Outbreak Background The ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 has spread rapidly and sparked global concern. While the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through human respiratory droplets and contact with infected persons is clear, the aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been little studied. Methods Thirty-five aerosol samples of three different types (total suspended particle, size segregated and deposition aerosol) were collected in Patient Areas (PAA) and Medical Staff Areas (MSA) of Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University (Renmin) and Wuchang Fangcang Field Hospital (Fangcang), and Public Areas (PUA) in Wuhan, China during COVID-19 outbreak. A robust droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) method was employed to quantitate the viral SARS-CoV-2 RNA genome and determine aerosol RNA concentration. Results The ICU, CCU and general patient rooms inside Renmin, patient hall inside Fangcang had undetectable or low airborne SARS-CoV-2 concentration but deposition samples inside ICU and air sample in Fangcang patient toilet tested positive. The airborne SARS-CoV-2 in Fangcang MSA had bimodal distribution with higher concentration than those in Renmin during the outbreak but turned negative after patients number reduced and rigorous sanitization implemented. PUA had undetectable airborne SARS-CoV-2 concentration but obviously increased with accumulating crowd flow. Conclusions Room ventilation, open space, proper use and disinfection of toilet can effectively limit aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Gathering of crowds with asymptomatic carriers is a potential source of airborne SARS-CoV-2. The virus aerosol deposition on protective apparel or floor surface and their subsequent resuspension is a potential transmission pathway and effective sanitization is critical in minimizing aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

negative: A systematic review on the efficacy and safety of chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19 PURPOSE: COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is a public health emergency of international concern. As of this time, there is no known effective pharmaceutical treatment, although it is much needed for patient contracting the severe form of the disease. The aim of this systematic review was to summarize the evidence regarding chloroquine for the treatment of COVID-19. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and three trial Registries were searched for studies on the use of chloroquine in patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: We included six articles (one narrative letter, one in-vitro study, one editorial, expert consensus paper, two national guideline documents) and 23 ongoing clinical trials in China. Chloroquine seems to be effective in limiting the replication of SARS-CoV-2 (virus causing COVID-19) in vitro. CONCLUSIONS: There is rationale, pre-clinical evidence of effectiveness and evidence of safety from long-time clinical use for other indications to justify clinical research on chloroquine in patients with COVID-19. However, clinical use should either adhere to the Monitored Emergency Use of Unregistered Interventions (MEURI) framework or be ethically approved as a trial as stated by the World Health Organization. Safety data and data from high-quality clinical trials are urgently needed.

negative: Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change? The COVID-19 crisis is likely to have dramatic consequences for progress on climate change. Imminent fiscal recovery packages could entrench or partly displace the current fossil-fuel-intensive economic system. Here, we survey 231 central bank officials, finance ministry officials, and other economic experts from G20 countries on the relative performance of 25 major fiscal recovery archetypes across four dimensions: speed of implementation, economic multiplier, climate impact potential, and overall desirability. We identify five policies with high potential on both economic multiplier and climate impact metrics: clean physical infrastructure, building efficiency retrofits, investment in education and training, natural capital investment, and clean R&D. In lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rural support spending is of particular value while clean R&D is less important. These recommendations are contextualised through analysis of the short-run impacts of COVID-19 on greenhouse gas curtailment and plausible medium-run shifts in the habits and behaviours of humans and institutions.

negative: Using Satellite Images of Environmental Changes to Predict Infectious Disease Outbreaks Recent events clearly illustrate a continued vulnerability of large populations to infectious diseases, which is related to our changing human-constructed and natural environments. A single person with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in 2007 provided a wake-up call to the United States and global public health infrastructure, as the health professionals and the public realized that today’s ease of airline travel can potentially expose hundreds of persons to an untreatable disease associated with an infectious agent. Ease of travel, population increase, population displacement, pollution, agricultural activity, changing socioeconomic structures, and international conflicts worldwide have each contributed to infectious disease events. Today, however, nothing is larger in scale, has more potential for long-term effects, and is more uncertain than the effects of climate change on infectious disease outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. We discuss advances in our ability to predict these events and, in particular, the critical role that satellite imaging could play in mounting an effective response.

negative: Comparison of culturable antibiotic-resistant bacteria in polluted and non-polluted air in Beijing, China Abstract Background Air pollution has been a serious health issue in Beijing for years. Airborne antibiotic-resistant bacteria could be a potential health crisis as reserve of antibiotic resistance transmission in environment. The composition and antibiotic resistance pattern of culturable bacterial community and how these are affected by air pollution remain unclear. Objectives This study aimed to compare the compositions and antibiotic resistance patterns of culturable bacteria in polluted and non-polluted weather conditions in Beijing. Methods Air samples were collected indoors and outdoors during polluted and non-polluted weather using six-stage Andersen Samplers. For each isolated bacterium, the 16S ribosomal RNA gene was amplified, sequenced, and blasted against the National Center for Biotechnology Information database Antibiotic resistance was conducted by antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Results Bacterial concentration in polluted weather was significantly higher than in non-polluted weather, both indoors and outdoors (P < 0.05). Gram-positive bacteria (GPB) were dominant in both weathers but gram-negative bacteria (GNB) were more abundant in polluted weather than non-polluted weather both indoors and outdoors. Multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria occupied 23.7% of all bacterial isolates, 22.4% of isolates from polluted weather and 27.8% of isolates from non-polluted weather. Penicillins were resisted by 72.4% and 83.3% of isolates from polluted and non-polluted weather, respectively. Conclusions The bacterial concentration was significantly higher in polluted weather, compared to non-polluted weather. Polluted weather is correlated with changes in the bacterial composition in the air, with a greater abundance of GNB. Penicillins was resisted by over 70% of bacterial isolates. The abundance of MDR bacteria suggested potential risks for human health.

negative: Double aortic arch in an adult. We present the case of a 60-year old man who complained of severe dysphagia caused by a double aortic arch (DAA) with a right-sided descending thoracic aorta. The left-sided aortic arch had a compressive segment located between the left subclavian artery and the descending thoracic aorta. Using left third thoracotomy, the segment, which caused compression of the oesophagus, was ligated and divided. After the operation, the patient was completely relieved of his symptoms. We concluded that the removal of the compressive portion of the left aortic arch and the ligation of the ligamentum arteriosum are the only treatment measures needed in such cases.

negative: Selection of and recombination between minor variants lead to the adaptation of an avian coronavirus to primate cells Abstract An interesting question posed by the current evidence that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus may be originated from an animal coronavirus is how such an animal coronavirus breaks the host species barrier and becomes zoonotic. In this report, we study the chronological order of genotypic changes in the spike protein of avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) during its adaptation to a primate cell line. Adaptation of the Beaudette strain of IBV from chicken embryo to Vero cells showed the accumulation of 49 amino acid mutations. Among them, 26 (53.06%) substitutions were located in the S protein. Sequencing analysis and comparison of the S gene demonstrated that the majority of the mutations were accumulated and fixed at passage 7 on Vero cells and minor variants were isolated in several passages. Evidence present suggests that the dominant Vero cell-adapted IBV strain may be derived from the chicken embryo passages by selection of and potential recombination between the minor variants. This may explain why adaptation is a rapid process and the dominant strain, once adapted to a new host cell, becomes relatively stable.

negative: Epigenetic Landscape during Coronavirus Infection Coronaviruses (CoV) comprise a large group of emerging human and animal pathogens, including the highly pathogenic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) strains. The molecular mechanisms regulating emerging coronavirus pathogenesis are complex and include virus–host interactions associated with entry, replication, egress and innate immune control. Epigenetics research investigates the genetic and non-genetic factors that regulate phenotypic variation, usually caused by external and environmental factors that alter host expression patterns and performance without any change in the underlying genotype. Epigenetic modifications, such as histone modifications, DNA methylation, chromatin remodeling, and non-coding RNAs, function as important regulators that remodel host chromatin, altering host expression patterns and networks in a highly flexible manner. For most of the past two and a half decades, research has focused on the molecular mechanisms by which RNA viruses antagonize the signaling and sensing components that regulate induction of the host innate immune and antiviral defense programs upon infection. More recently, a growing body of evidence supports the hypothesis that viruses, even lytic RNA viruses that replicate in the cytoplasm, have developed intricate, highly evolved, and well-coordinated processes that are designed to regulate the host epigenome, and control host innate immune antiviral defense processes, thereby promoting robust virus replication and pathogenesis. In this article, we discuss the strategies that are used to evaluate the mechanisms by which viruses regulate the host epigenome, especially focusing on highly pathogenic respiratory RNA virus infections as a model. By combining measures of epigenome reorganization with RNA and proteomic datasets, we articulate a spatial-temporal data integration approach to identify regulatory genomic clusters and regions that play a crucial role in the host’s innate immune response, thereby defining a new viral antagonism mechanism following emerging coronavirus infection.

negative: Case Study: Calf Pneumonia This article describes the investigation of a calf pneumonia outbreak in a dairy herd and the practical steps taken to treat sick animals, as well as improve overall calf management. High levels of morbidity meant a blanket treatment approach with antibiotics and NSAIDs was taken for all calves. Key management changes were made in calving pens, colostrum management was improved, changes to ventilation in calf sheds were made, and a protocol for feeding calves was drawn up.

negative: Funding gap for locust crisis East Africa is experiencing the worst desert locust outbreak in decades. Climate events have facilitated breeding of the swarming pest across the region, and with a surge in the locust population expected in coming weeks urgent action is needed to avert a humanitarian crisis.

negative: Gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness and dermatological complaints following exposure to floodwater: a cross-sectional survey in The Netherlands. Extreme rainfall events may cause pluvial flooding, increasing the transmission of several waterborne pathogens. However, the risk of experiencing clinically overt infections following exposure to pluvial floodwater is poorly estimated. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was performed to quantify the occurrence of self-reported gastrointestinal, influenza-like illness (ILI) and dermatological complaints, and the frequency of visits to the general practitioner (GP), during a 4-week observation period following pluvial flooding at seven locations in The Netherlands. Questionnaires were sent to 817 flooded households, 149 (17%) of which returned the questionnaire reporting information for 199 participants. Contact with floodwater was significantly associated with increased occurrence of gastrointestinal [odds ratio (OR 4·44)], ILI (OR 2·75) and dermatological (OR 6·67) complaints, and GP visits (OR 2·72). Having hand contact with floodwater was associated with gastrointestinal and dermatological complaints, whereas ILI complaints were associated with being engaged in post-flooding cleaning operations and having walked/cycled through floodwater. This study shows that floodwater-associated diseases occur in urban settings following extreme rainfall events in a high-income country. As pluvial floods are expected to escalate in the future due to global climate change, further research is warranted to determine the disease burden of pluvial flooding and to assess the effect of different interventions, including raising awareness among stakeholders.

negative: Early Warnings: The Lessons of COVID-19 for Public Health Climate Preparedness The early 2020 response to COVID-19 revealed major gaps in public health systems around the world as many were overwhelmed by a quickly-spreading new coronavirus. While the critical task at hand is turning the tide on COVID-19, this pandemic serves as a clarion call to governments and citizens alike to ensure public health systems are better prepared to meet the emergencies of the future, many of which will be climate-related. Learning from the successes as well as the failures of the pandemic response provides some guidance. We apply several recommendations of a recent World Health Organization Policy Brief on COVID-19 response to 5 key areas of public health systems – governance, information, services, determinants, and capacity – to suggest early lessons from the coronavirus pandemic for climate change preparedness. COVID-19 has demonstrated how essential public health is to well-functioning human societies and how high the economic cost of an unprepared health system can be. This pandemic provides valuable early warnings, with lessons for building public health resilience.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 is an appropriate name for the new coronavirus

negative: Coronaviren als Ursache respiratorischer Infektionen BACKGROUND: There are six human pathogenic coronaviruses (CoV), which mainly cause infections of the respiratory system. In everyday clinical practice, it is helpful to know the relevance and characteristics of these pathogens. OBJECTIVE: To present the epidemiology, clinical picture and differences of human pathogenic CoV and to provide information on the diagnostics and treatment of patients suspected of having CoV infections. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Selective literature search, presentation of results and discussion of fundamental works and expert recommendations, including publications by the World Health Organization (WHO), the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the Robert Koch Institute. RESULTS: The four endemic human CoVs (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1) mainly cause mild respiratory tract infections. In addition to these four endemic HCoV, the two epidemic CoV, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV can cause severe pneumonia. The SARS-CoV has not been detected in humans in the last 15 years and MERS-CoV has been circulating mainly on the Arabian Peninsula since 2012; however, neither a specific treatment nor approved vaccines exist for any of the six human pathogenic CoVs. CONCLUSION: All six human CoVs can be diagnosed using RT-PCR on respiratory specimens but this is rarely necessary for the four endemic strains. In current clinical practice SARS-CoV has no importance as it has not been detected in humans for 15 years; however, a possible MERS-CoV infection should be taken into account in patients with typical symptoms and travel history to endemic regions. In this case, rapid diagnostic and general hygiene practices are important to prevent further transmission.

negative: Knowledge and Beliefs of General Public of India on COVID-19: A Web-based Cross-sectional Survey Context: Despite many awareness programs conducted by the governments and other agencies, there are certain false beliefs among the general public of India towards the transmission, prevention, and treatment of COVID-19. Aims: To assess the knowledge and beliefs of the general public of India on COVID-19. Materials and Methods: A web-based cross-sectional survey was conducted between 20th March and 15th April 2020. A 17-item questionnaire was developed, validated, and used for the study. The questionnaire was randomly distributed among the public using Google forms through social media networks. Descriptive analysis was performed to represent the study characteristics, Chi-square test for assessing the associations among the study variables, and logistic regression analysis for identifying the factors influencing the beliefs. Results: A total of 462 participants with a mean (SD) age of 30.66 (11.31) years were responded to the questionnaire. Study participants are having fairly good knowledge of the basic aspects of COVID-19. However, a considerable fraction of participants were having false beliefs towards the transmission of new coronavirus, and prevention & treatment of COVID-19. It was observed that the participants who were aged 31-60 years and >60 years, education level of intermediate or diploma and high school certificate, and occupation as the unskilled workers had more of false beliefs towards COVID-19 compared to their counterparts. Conclusion: Though the overall knowledge on COVID-19 was good enough among the general public of India, still there is a need for education to avoid false beliefs especially among the people who are elderly, having a low level of education, and non-professional workers.

negative: IMG/VR: a database of cultured and uncultured DNA Viruses and retroviruses Viruses represent the most abundant life forms on the planet. Recent experimental and computational improvements have led to a dramatic increase in the number of viral genome sequences identified primarily from metagenomic samples. As a result of the expanding catalog of metagenomic viral sequences, there exists a need for a comprehensive computational platform integrating all these sequences with associated metadata and analytical tools. Here we present IMG/VR (https://img.jgi.doe.gov/vr/), the largest publicly available database of 3908 isolate reference DNA viruses with 264 413 computationally identified viral contigs from >6000 ecologically diverse metagenomic samples. Approximately half of the viral contigs are grouped into genetically distinct quasi-species clusters. Microbial hosts are predicted for 20 000 viral sequences, revealing nine microbial phyla previously unreported to be infected by viruses. Viral sequences can be queried using a variety of associated metadata, including habitat type and geographic location of the samples, or taxonomic classification according to hallmark viral genes. IMG/VR has a user-friendly interface that allows users to interrogate all integrated data and interact by comparing with external sequences, thus serving as an essential resource in the viral genomics community.

negative: A country comparison of place-based activity response to COVID-19 policies The emergence of the novel Coronavirus Disease in late 2019 (COVID-19) and subsequent pandemic led to an immense disruption in the daily lives of almost everyone on the planet. Faced with the consequences of inaction, most national governments responded with policies that restricted the activities conducted by their inhabitants. As schools and businesses shuttered, the mobility of these people decreased. This reduction in mobility, and related activities, was recorded through ubiquitous location-enabled personal mobile devices. Patterns emerged that varied by place-based activity. In this work the differences in these place-based activity patterns are investigated across nations, specifically focusing on the relationship between government enacted policies and changes in community activity patterns. We show that people's activity response to government action varies widely both across nations as well as regionally within them. Three assessment measures are devised and the results correlate with a number of global indices. We discuss these findings and the relationship between government action and residents' response.

negative: Changes in electricity demand pattern in Europe due to COVID-19 shutdowns The article covers electricity demand shift effects due to COVID-19 shutdowns in various European countries. We utilize high-dimensional regression techniques to exploit the structural breaks in demand profiles due to the shutdowns. We discuss the findings with respect to coronavirus pandemic progress and regulatory measures of the considered countries.

negative: Ventilation and laboratory confirmed acute respiratory infection (ARI) rates in college residence halls in College Park, Maryland Abstract Strategies to protect building occupants from the risk of acute respiratory infection (ARI) need to consider ventilation for its ability to dilute and remove indoor bioaerosols. Prior studies have described an association of increased self-reported colds and influenza-like symptoms with low ventilation but have not combined rigorous characterization of ventilation with assessment of laboratory confirmed infections. We report a study designed to fill this gap. We followed laboratory confirmed ARI rates and measured CO2 concentrations for four months during the winter-spring of 2018 in two campus residence halls: (1) a high ventilation building (HVB) with a dedicated outdoor air system that supplies 100% of outside air to each dormitory room, and (2) a low ventilation building (LVB) that relies on infiltration as ventilation. We enrolled 11 volunteers for a total of 522 person-days in the HVB and 109 volunteers for 6069 person-days in the LVB, and tested upper-respiratory swabs from symptomatic cases and their close contacts for the presence of 44 pathogens using a molecular assay. We observed one ARI case in the HVB (0.70/person-year) and 47 in the LVB (2.83/person-year). Simultaneously, 154 CO2 sensors distributed primarily in the dormitory rooms collected 668,390 useful data points from over 1 million recorded data points. Average and standard deviation of CO2 concentrations were 1230 ppm and 408 ppm in the HVB, and 1492 ppm and 837 ppm in the LVB, respectively. Importantly, this study developed and calibrated multi-zone models for the HVB with 229 zones and 983 airflow paths, and for the LVB with 529 zones and 1836 airflow paths by using a subset of CO2 data for model calibration. The models were used to calculate ventilation rates in the two buildings and potential for viral aerosol migration between rooms in the LVB. With doors and windows closed, the average ventilation rate was 12 L/s in the HVB dormitory rooms and 4 L/s in the LVB dormitory rooms. As a result, residents had on average 6.6 L/(s person) of outside air in the HVB and 2.3 L/(s person) in the LVB. LVB rooms located at the leeward side of the building had smaller average ventilation rates, as well as a somewhat higher ARI incidence rate and average CO2 concentrations when compared to those values in the rooms located at the windward side of the building. Average ventilation rates in twenty LVB dormitory rooms increased from 2.3 L/s to 7.5 L/s by opening windows, 3.6 L/s by opening doors, and 8.8 L/s by opening both windows and doors. Therefore, opening both windows and doors in the LVB dormitory rooms can increase ventilation rates to the levels comparable to those in the HVB. But it can also have a negative effect on thermal comfort due to low outdoor temperatures. Simulation results identified an aerobiologic pathway from a room occupied by an index case of influenza A to a room occupied by a possible secondary case.

negative: Efficacy of a pharmaceutical preparation based on glycyrrhizic acid in a challenge study of white spot syndrome in white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) Abstract There is a lack of preventive and therapeutic drug-based treatments for the shrimp viral disease known as white spot syndrome (WSSV). Thus a challenge study inducing WSSV in juvenile white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) was established, setting 4 groups: challenged — not treated and unchallenged, untreated control groups and two experimental ones (E1 and E2) both treated with diammonium glycyrrhizic acid, extracted from licorice with added vitamins and oligoelements, and as in-feed medication. Group E1 received diammonium glycyrrhizic acid included in their daily feed, starting 17days before challenge with WSSV and maintaining the treatment for further 5days after the end of the trial, which was set on day 18. Group E2 received this medication as group E1 throughout the trial, but starting 1day before the challenge with WSSV. The group with highest surviving median values was E1, amounting two times the survival median in comparison with the control groups (P=0.007). Also a statistical difference was found in terms of survival means in favor of group E1 as compared to group E2. Macroscopic and histopathological findings revealed lesions compatible with WSSV and similar mortality in the challenged untreated group. These findings were highly reduced or inexistent in mortality analyzed from groups E1 as well as in the unchallenged — untreated control group and greatly reduced in group E2. Considering the apparent high efficacy observed and that glycyrrhizic acid and mineral and vitamin components added as treatment, and taking as an advantage that this preparation has been regarded as nutraceuticals, it is here proposed that large scale trials should be conducted to evaluate the effects here observed in commercial and larger scale shrimp farms.

negative: Conformational change of the coronavirus peplomer glycoprotein at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C correlates with virus aggregation and virus-induced cell fusion. We have obtained biochemical and electron microscopic evidence of conformational changes at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C in the coronavirus spike glycoprotein E2 (S). The importance of these changes is reflected in the loss of virus infectivity, the aggregation of virions, and increased virus-induced cell fusion at the same pH. Coronavirus (MHV-A59) infectivity is exquisitely sensitive to pH. The virus was quite stable at pH 6.0 and 37 degrees C (half-life, approximately 24 h) but was rapidly and irreversibly inactivated by brief treatment at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C (half-life, approximately 30 min). Virions treated at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C formed clumps and large aggregates. With virions treated at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C, the amino-terminal peptide E2N (or S1) was released from virions and the remaining peptide, E2C (S2), was aggregated. Viral spikes isolated from detergent-treated virions also aggregated at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C. Loss of virus infectivity and E2 (S) aggregation at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C were markedly enhanced in the presence of dithiothreitol. On the basis of the effects of dithiothreitol on the reactions of the peplomer, we propose that release of E2N (S1) and aggregation of E2C (S2) may be triggered by rearrangement of intramolecular disulfide bonds. The aggregation of virions and the isolated E2 (S) glycoprotein at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C or following treatment with guanidine and urea at pH 6.0 and 37 degrees C indicate that an irreversible conformational change has been induced in the peplomer glycoprotein by these conditions. It is interesting that coronavirus-induced cell fusion also occurred under mildly alkaline conditions and at 37 degrees C. Some enveloped viruses, including influenza viruses and alphaviruses, show conformational changes of spike glycoproteins at a low pH, which correlates with fusion and penetration of those viruses in acidified endocytic vesicles. For coronavirus MHV-A59, comparable conformational change of the spike glycoprotein E2 (S) and cell fusion occurred at a mildly alkaline condition, suggesting that coronavirus infection-penetration, like that of paramyxoviruses and lentiviruses, may occur at the plasma membrane, rather than within endocytic vesicles.

negative: Review and Meta-Analyses of TAAR1 Expression in the Immune System and Cancers Since its discovery in 2001, the major focus of TAAR1 research has been on its role in monoaminergic regulation, drug-induced reward and psychiatric conditions. More recently, TAAR1 expression and functionality in immune system regulation and immune cell activation has become a topic of emerging interest. Here, we review the immunologically-relevant TAAR1 literature and incorporate open-source expression and cancer survival data meta-analyses. We provide strong evidence for TAAR1 expression in the immune system and cancers revealed through NCBI GEO datamining and discuss its regulation in a spectrum of immune cell types as well as in numerous cancers. We discuss connections and logical directions for further study of TAAR1 in immunological function, and its potential role as a mediator or modulator of immune dysregulation, immunological effects of psychostimulant drugs of abuse, and cancer progression.

negative: A vulnerability-based approach to human-mobility reduction for countering COVID-19 transmission in London while considering local air quality An ecologic analysis was conducted to explore the correlation between air pollution, and COVID-19 cases and fatality rates in London. The analysis demonstrated a strong correlation (R2>0.7) between increment in air pollution and an increase in the risk of COVID-19 transmission within London boroughs. Particularly, strong correlations (R2>0.72) between the risk of COVID-19 fatality and NO2 and PM2.5 pollution concentrations were also found. Although this study assumed the same level of air pollution across a particular London borough, it demonstrates the possibility to employ air pollution as an indicator to rapidly identify the vulnerable regions within a city. Such an approach can inform the decisions to suspend or reduce the operation of different public transport modes within a city. The methodology and learnings from the study can thus aid public transport to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak by adopting different levels of human-mobility reduction strategies based on the vulnerability of a given region.

negative: Recent Progress in Studies of Arterivirus- and Coronavirus-Host Interactions Animal coronaviruses, such as infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), and arteriviruses, such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), are able to manifest highly contagious infections in their specific native hosts, thereby arising in critical economic damage to animal industries. This review discusses recent progress in studies of virus-host interactions during animal and human coronavirus and arterivirus infections, with emphasis on IBV-host cell interactions. These interactions may be directly involved in viral replication or lead to the alteration of certain signaling pathways, such as cell stress response and innate immunity, to facilitate viral replication and pathogenesis.

negative: Respiratory Tract Infection and Risk of Hospitalization in Children with Congenital Heart Defects During Season and Off-Season: A Swedish National Study Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are common among young children, and congenital heart defect (CHD) is a risk factor for severe illness and hospitalization. This study aims to assess the relative risk of hospitalization due to RTI in winter and summer seasons for different types of CHD. All children born in Sweden and under the age of two, in 2006–2011, were included. Heart defects were grouped according to type. Hospitalization rates for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection and RTI in general were retrieved from the national inpatient registry. The relative risk of hospitalization was calculated by comparing each subgroup to other types of CHD and otherwise healthy children. The relative risk of hospitalization was increased for all CHD subgroups, and there was a greater increase in risk in summer for the most severe CHD. This included RSV infection, as well as RTI in general. The risk of hospitalization due to RTI is greater for CHD children. Prophylactic treatment with palivizumab, given to prevent severe RSV illness, is only recommended during winter. We argue that information to healthcare staff and parents should include how the risk of severe infectious respiratory tract illnesses, RSV and others, is present all year round for children with CHD.

negative: On-farm biosecurity as perceived by professionals visiting Swedish farms BACKGROUND: On-farm biosecurity is an important part of disease prevention and control, this applies to live animal contacts as well as indirect contacts e.g. via professionals visiting farms in their work. The objectives of this study were to investigate how professionals visiting animal farms in Sweden in their daily work perceive the on-farm conditions for biosecurity, the factors that influence their own biosecurity routines and what they describe as obstacles for biosecurity. Suggestions for improvements were also asked for. Questionnaires were distributed to professionals visiting farms in their daily work; veterinarians, livestock hauliers, artificial insemination technicians, animal welfare inspectors and cattle hoof trimmers. The sample was a convenience sample, based on accessibility to registers or collaboration with organisations distributing the questionnaire. Respondents were asked about the availability of certain biosecurity conditions related to farm visits, e.g. if facilities for hand washing were available, how important different factors were for their own routines and, through open ended questions, to describe obstacles and suggestions for improvement. RESULTS: After data cleaning, there were responses from 368 persons. There was a difference in the proportion of visited farms reported to have certain biosecurity measures in place related to animal species present on the farm. In general, visited pig farms had a higher proportion of biosecurity measures in place, whereas the conditions were poorer on sheep and goat farms and horse farms. There were also differences between the visitor categories; the perceived conditions for biosecurity varied between the groups, e.g. livestock hauliers did not have access to hand washing facilities as often as veterinarians did. In all groups, a majority of the respondents perceived obstacles for on-farm biosecurity, among veterinarians 66% perceived that there were obstacles. Many of the reported obstacles related to the very basics of biosecurity, such as access to soap and water. Responsibility was identified to be a key issue; while some farmers expect visitors to take responsibility for keeping up biosecurity they do not provide the adequate on-farm conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Many of the respondents reported obstacles for keeping good biosecurity related to on-farm conditions. There was a gap when it came to responsibility which needs to be clarified. Visitors need to take responsibility for avoiding spread of disease, while farmers need to assume responsibility for providing adequate conditions for on-farm biosecurity.

negative: 'Calibrating to scale: a framework for humanitarian health organizations to anticipate, prevent, prepare for and manage climate-related health risks'. Climate Change is adversely affecting health by increasing human vulnerability and exposure to climate-related stresses. Climate change impacts human health both directly and indirectly, through extreme weather events, changing distribution of health risks, increased risks of undernutrition, population displacement, and greater risks of injuries, disease, and death (Ebi, K., Campbell-Lendrum, D., & Wyns, A. The 1. 5 health report. WHO. 2018). This risk amplification is likely to increase the need for humanitarian support. Recent projections indicate that under a business as usual scenario of sustained greenhouse gas emissions, climate change could double the demand for humanitarian assistance by 2050 (World Health Organization. Operational Framework for building climateresilient health systems. WHO. 2015). Humanitarian assistance is currently not meeting the existing needs, therefore, any additional burden is likely to be highly challenging.Global health advocates, researchers, and policymakers are calling for urgent action on climate change, yet there is little clarity on what that action practically entails for humanitarian organizations. While some humanitarian organizations may consider themselves well designed to respond, climate change as a transversal threat requires the incorporation of a resilience approach to humanitarian action and policy responses.By bringing together authors from two historically disparate fields - climate change and health, and humanitarian assistance - this paper aims to increase the capacity of humanitarian organizations to protect health in an unstable climate by presenting an adapted framework. We adapted the WHO operational framework for climate-resilient health systems for humanitarian organizations and present concrete case studies to demonstrate how the framework can be implemented. Rather than suggest a re-design of humanitarian operations we recommend the application of a climate-lens to humanitarian activities, or what is also referred to as mainstreaming climate and health concerns into policies and programs. The framework serves as a starting point to encourage further dialogue, and to strengthen collaboration within, between, and beyond humanitarian organizations.

negative: An Opportunistic Pathogen Afforded Ample Opportunities: Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus The human coronaviruses (CoV) include HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-HKU1, some of which have been known for decades. The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV briefly emerged into the human population but was controlled. In 2012, another novel severely human pathogenic CoV—the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)-CoV—was identified in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; 80% of over 2000 human cases have been recorded over five years. Targeted research remains key to developing control strategies for MERS-CoV, a cause of mild illness in its camel reservoir. A new therapeutic toolbox being developed in response to MERS is also teaching us more about how CoVs cause disease. Travel-related cases continue to challenge the world’s surveillance and response capabilities, and more data are needed to understand unexplained primary transmission. Signs of genetic change have been recorded, but it remains unclear whether there is any impact on clinical disease. How camels came to carry the virus remains academic to the control of MERS. To date, human-to-human transmission has been inefficient, but virus surveillance, characterisation, and reporting are key to responding to any future change. MERS-CoV is not currently a pandemic threat; it is spread mainly with the aid of human habit and error.

negative: Characterization of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike in an Early Prefusion Conformation Pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by the emerging severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), for which there are no efficacious vaccines or therapeutics that are urgently needed. We expressed three versions of spike (S) proteins—receptor binding domain (RBD), S1 subunit and S ectodomain—in insect cells. RBD appears monomer in solutions, whereas S1 and S associate into homotrimer with substantial glycosylation. The three proteins confer excellent antigenicity with six convalescent COVID-19 patient sera. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) analyses indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 S trimer dominate in a unique conformation distinguished from the classic prefusion conformation of coronaviruses by the upper S1 region at lower position ~15 Å proximal to viral membrane. Such conformation is proposed as an early prefusion state for the SARS-CoV-2 spike that may broaden the knowledge of coronavirus and facilitate vaccine development.

negative: Index to Subjects ∗ ∗ July, pp. 1-98; August, pp. 99-198; September, pp. 199-294; October, pp. 295-438; November, pp. 439-564; December, pp. 565-736.

negative: Protein pI alteration related to strain variation of infectious bronchitis virus, an avian Coronavirus Abstract Viral proteins of two strains of infectious bronchitis virus (IBV), which have different tissue trophism and serology, were separated on the basis of their isoelectric points (pI). The viruses have four structural proteins; the protein of greatest serological importance is found at the peplomer tip. The viral structural proteins separated by isoelectric focusing were identified by comparison to SDS-PAGE separations. Three protein bands were identical in pI and one protein band showed a difference in pI between strains. When the renatured viral proteins were Western blotted and reacted with strain-specific antiserum, antigen-antibody complexing was seen only at points corresponding to the strain-specific variant bands. For IBV strain Mass-41, antigen-antibody complexing occurred at a pI of 6.8, and, for IBV strain Ark-99, at 7.2. No cross reaction of antisera was observed for either strain. Since tissue affinities are a function of the viral peplomer-mediated attachment of virus to cells and are often directly related to pathogenicity, it appears that altered pathogenicity of strains of IBV may be detected by alteration of pI of the proteins. Classification by pI of proteins of at least the smaller viruses allows untypeable, highly pathogenic or persistent strains of these viruses to be characterized on the basis of variant proteins.

negative: Investigation of interunit dispersion in 2D street canyons: A scaled outdoor experiment Abstract Interunit dispersion problems have been studied previously mainly through on-site measurements, wind tunnel tests, and CFD simulations. In this study, a scaled outdoor experiment was conducted to examine the interunit dispersion characteristics in consecutive two-dimensional street canyons. Tracer gas ( C O 2 ) was continuously released to simulate the pollutant dispersion routes between the rooms in street canyons. The wind velocity, wind direction, air temperature, and tracer gas concentrations were monitored simultaneously. Two important parameters, the air exchange rate and reentry ratio, were analyzed to reveal the ventilation performance and interunit dispersion of the rooms in the street canyons. Based on the real-time weather conditions, it was found that the ventilation performance of the source room varied according to the room location. The air exchange rate distribution of the leeward-side room was more stable than that of the windward side. The tracer gas was mainly transported in the vortex direction inside the street canyon, and the highest reentry ratio was observed at the room nearest to the source room along the transportation route. In addition, under real weather conditions, the rooms in the street canyon have a high probability of experiencing a high reentry ratio based on the maximum reentry ratio of each room. This study provides authentic airflow and pollutant dispersion information in the street canyons in an urban environment. The dataset of this experiment can be used to validate further numerical simulations.

negative: Lung epithelial cells have virus-specific and shared gene expression responses to infection by diverse respiratory viruses The severity and outcome of respiratory viral infections is partially determined by the cellular response mounted by infected lung epithelial cells. Disease prevention and treatment is dependent on our understanding of the shared and unique responses elicited by diverse viruses, yet few studies compare host responses to different viruses while controlling other experimental parameters. We compared changes in gene expression of murine lung epithelial cells infected individually by three respiratory viruses causing mild (rhinovirus, RV1B), moderate (coronavirus, MHV-1), and severe (influenza A virus, PR8) disease in mice. RV1B infection caused numerous gene expression changes, but the differential effect peaked at 12 hours post-infection. PR8 altered an intermediate number of genes whose expression continued to change through 24 hours. MHV-1 had comparatively few effects on host gene expression. The viruses elicited highly overlapping responses in antiviral genes, though MHV-1 induced a lower type I interferon response than the other two viruses. Signature genes were identified for each virus and included host defense genes for PR8, tissue remodeling genes for RV1B, and transcription factors for MHV-1. Our comparative approach identified universal and specific transcriptional signatures of virus infection that can be used to discover mechanisms of pathogenesis in the respiratory tract.

negative: COVID-19, City Lockdown, and Air Pollution: Evidence from China The rapid spread of COVID-19 is a global public health challenge. To prevent the escalation of its transmission, China locked down one-third of its cities and strictly restricted human mobility and economic activities. Using timely and comprehensive air quality data in China, we show that these counter-COVID-19 measures led to remarkable improvement in air quality. Within weeks, the Air Quality Index and PM2.5 concentrations were brought down by 25%. The effects are larger in colder, richer, and more industrialized cities. We estimate that such improvement would avert 24,000 to 36,000 premature deaths from air pollution on a monthly basis.

negative: On the evolutionary epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 There is no doubt that the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 that causes COVID-19 is mutating and thus has the potential to adapt during the current pandemic. Whether this evolution will lead to changes in the transmission, the duration, or the severity of the disease is not clear. This has led to considerable scientific and media debate, from raising alarms about evolutionary change to dismissing it. Here we review what little is currently known about the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and extend existing evolutionary theory to consider how selection might be acting upon the virus during the COVID-19 pandemic. While there is currently no definitive evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is undergoing further adaptation, continued, evidence-based, analysis of evolutionary change is important so that public health measures can be adjusted in response to substantive changes in the infectivity or severity of COVID-19.

negative: Climate change, global warming, and intensive care

negative: A World of Changes: The Inheritance of COVID-19

negative: Equine Coronavirus Infection Equine coronavirus (ECoV) is an emerging virus associated clinically and epidemiologically with fever, depression, anorexia, and less frequently colic or diarrhea in adult horses. Sporadic cases and outbreaks have been reported with increased frequency since 2010 from Japan, the USA, and more recently from Europe. A feco-oral transmission route is suspected, and clinical or asymptomatic infected horses appear to be responsible for direct and indirect transmission of ECoV. A presumptive clinical diagnosis of ECoV infection may be suggested by clinical presentation and hematological abnormalities such as leukopenia due to lymphopenia and/or neutropenia. Confirmation of ECoV infection is provided by specific ECoV nucleic acid detection in feces by quantitative PCR or demonstration of coronavirus antigen by immunohistochemistry or electron microscopy in intestinal biopsy material obtained ante- or postmortem. The disease is generally self-limiting and horses typically recover with symptomatic supportive care. Complications associated with disruption of the gastrointestinal barrier have been reported in some infected horses and include endotoxemia, septicemia, and hyperammonemia-associated encephalopathy. This chapter reviews current knowledge concerning the etiology, epidemiology, clinical signs, diagnosis, pathology, treatment, and prevention of ECoV infection in adult horses.

negative: A bulged stem-loop structure in the 3' untranslated region of the genome of the coronavirus mouse hepatitis virus is essential for replication. The 3' untranslated region (UTR) of the positive-sense RNA genome of the coronavirus mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) contains sequences that are necessary for the synthesis of negative-strand viral RNA as well as sequences that may be crucial for both genomic and subgenomic positive-strand RNA synthesis. We have found that the entire 3' UTR of MHV could be replaced by the 3' UTR of bovine coronavirus (BCV), which diverges overall by 31% in nucleotide sequence. This exchange between two viruses that are separated by a species barrier was carried out by targeted RNA recombination. Our results define regions of the two 3' UTRs that are functionally equivalent despite having substantial sequence substitutions, deletions, or insertions with respect to each other. More significantly, our attempts to generate an unallowed substitution of a particular portion of the BCV 3' UTR for the corresponding region of the MHV 3' UTR led to the discovery of a bulged stem-loop RNA secondary structure, adjacent to the stop codon of the nucleocapsid gene, that is essential for MHV viral RNA replication.

negative: Chapter 6 Real-Time Estimation of the Case Fatality Ratio and Risk Factors of Death Abstract During the course of an epidemic, estimating the risk of death and identifying risk factors of death are of utmost importance for public health assessment of the severity of infection. The real-time estimation involves a number of important statistical problems to consider, and this chapter comprehensively describes commonly used estimation methods and their pitfalls. When estimating the case fatality risk (CFR) during the course of an epidemic, the data are right-censored because of the time delay from illness onset to death. A conventional survival analysis technique is employed for addressing right censoring. Identification of risk factors of death also requires the care for censored nature of the data, and we have devised a method that combines the survival analysis and logistic regression. Ascertainment bias is always a practical issue in interpreting the absolute value of the CFR or comparing CFR between different groups, and recent studies have shown that observational effort including seroepidemiological survey has to be made to overcome this bias.

negative: Prediction of Epidemic Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Driven by Spring Festival Transportation in China: A Population-Based Study After the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak, we estimated the distribution and scale of more than 5 million migrants residing in Wuhan after they returned to their hometown communities in Hubei Province or other provinces at the end of 2019 by using the data from the 2013–2018 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS). We found that the distribution of Wuhan’s migrants is centred in Hubei Province (approximately 75%) at a provincial level, gradually decreasing in the surrounding provinces in layers, with obvious spatial characteristics of circle layers and echelons. The scale of Wuhan’s migrants, whose origins in Hubei Province give rise to a gradient reduction from east to west within the province, and account for 66% of Wuhan’s total migrants, are from the surrounding prefectural-level cities of Wuhan. The distribution comprises 94 districts and counties in Hubei Province, and the cumulative percentage of the top 30 districts and counties exceeds 80%. Wuhan’s migrants have a large proportion of middle-aged and high-risk individuals. Their social characteristics include nuclear family migration (84%), migration with families of 3–4 members (71%), a rural household registration (85%), and working or doing business (84%) as the main reason for migration. Using a quasi-experimental analysis framework, we found that the size of Wuhan’s migrants was highly correlated with the daily number of confirmed cases. Furthermore, we compared the epidemic situation in different regions and found that the number of confirmed cases in some provinces and cities in Hubei Province may be underestimated, while the epidemic situation in some regions has increased rapidly. The results are conducive to monitoring the epidemic prevention and control in various regions.

negative: Letter to the Editor: Note on published research on the effects of COVID-19 on the environment without sufficient depth of science Dear Editor-in-Chief: We have given two articles published recently in Science of the Total Environment by Mandal and Pal (2020) and Zambrano-Monserrate et al. (2020) a thorough reading. Both articles present a significant association between the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) social distancing policies and improvement in environmental quality such as air pollution, land surface temperature, and noise. Both articles present good research, complemented by detailed explanations and displays, yet we have a few concerns that affect the interpretation and meaning of the results.

negative: Events postponed or cancelled because of the coronavirus outbreak A number of events that cover developments in membrane technology and related products have been postponed, or even cancelled, in response to the rapidly changing circumstances associated with the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

negative: Coronavirus lockdowns have changed the way Earth moves.

negative: Joint spatio-temporal analysis of multiple response types using the hierarchical generalized transformation model with application to coronavirus disease 2019 and social distancing Social distancing can be described as an effort to maintain a physical distance between individuals and has become a necessary public health measure to combat cornoavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Social distancing is known to weaken incidences and deaths due to COVID-19, however, there are detrimental economic and psychological effects. This motivates us to analyze incidences (and deaths) of COVID-19 along with a measure of the health of the US economy (i.e., the adjusted closing price of the Dow Jones Industrial), and a measure of the public interest in COVID-19 through Google Trends data. The model we implement is developed to be easily adapted to a data scientist's preferred method for continuous data, which is done to aid future analyses of this important dataset. This dataset consists of multiple response types (e.g., continuous-valued, count-valued, binomial counts). Thus, we introduce a reasonable easy-to-implement all-purpose method that"converts"a statistical model for continuous responses (the preferred model) into a Bayesian model for multi-response data sets. To do this, we transform the data such that the continuous-valued transformed data can be reasonably modeled using the preferred model and the transformation itself is treated as unknown. The implementation of our approach involves two steps. The first step produces posterior replicates of the transformed data using a latent conjugate multivariate (LCM) model. The second step involves generating values from the posterior distribution implied by the preferred model. We refer to our model as the hierarchical generalized transformation (HGT) model. In a simulation, we demonstrate the flexibility of the HGT model by incorporating two different preferred models: Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) and the spatial mixed effects (spatio-temporal mixed effects) models.

negative: Understanding community perceptions, social norms and current practice related to respiratory infection in Bangladesh during 2009: a qualitative formative study BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections are the leading cause of childhood deaths in Bangladesh. Promoting respiratory hygiene may reduce infection transmission. This formative research explored community perceptions about respiratory infections. METHODS: We conducted 34 in-depth interviews and 16 focus group discussions with community members and school children to explore respiratory hygiene related perceptions, practices, and social norms in an urban and a rural setting. We conducted unstructured observations on respiratory hygiene practices in public markets. RESULTS: Informants were not familiar with the term "respiratory infection"; most named diseases that had no relation to respiratory dysfunction. Informants reported that their community identified a number of 'good behaviors' related to respiratory hygiene, but they also noted, and we observed, that very few people practiced these. All informants cited hot/cold weather changes or using cold water as causes for catching cold. They associated transmission of respiratory infections with close contact with a sick person's breath, cough droplets, or spit; sharing a sick person's utensils and food. Informants suggested that avoiding such contact was the most effective method to prevent respiratory infection. Although informants perceived that handwashing after coughing or sneezing might prevent illness, they felt this was not typically feasible or practical. CONCLUSION: Community perceptions of respiratory infections include both concerns with imbalances between hot and cold, and with person-to-person transmission. Many people were aware of measures that could prevent respiratory infection, but did not practice them. Interventions that leverage community understanding of person-to-person transmission and that encourage the practice of their identified 'good behaviors' related to respiratory hygiene may reduce respiratory disease transmission.

negative: Cats, coronaviruses and coronavirus antibody tests Feline infectious peritonitis and other coronavirus infections of cats are briefly reviewed. Interpretation and applications of feline coronavirus antibody tests are described, and general recommendations are provided for practitioners. Some of the major unresolved questions regarding coronavirus infections of cats are delineated.

negative: Ungulates as model systems for the study of disease processes in natural populations Parasites and pathogens are a fundamental driving force in the ecology and evolution of mammalian populations, and understanding disease processes in natural populations is an urgent priority in the face of increased rates of infectious disease emergence. In this review, we argue that mammalogists are uniquely placed to contribute to addressing these challenges because in-depth knowledge of mammal species is fundamental to the development of wild model systems that could accelerate discovery in disease ecology. The use of animal models—species for which a broad range of diagnostic, molecular, and genetic tools have been developed—in tightly controlled laboratory environments has been instrumental in driving progress in the biomedical sciences. However, in natural populations, disease processes operate in the context of enormous genetic, phenotypic, and environmental variability. Understanding diseases in animal populations (including humans) thus requires investment in “wild animal models” that explicitly include individual variation and relevant environmental gradients. Wild mammal groups such as primates and rodents have already been identified as potentially useful models of infectious diseases in the wild. Here, we discuss the enormous potential that ungulates hold as candidates for wild model systems. The diversity, broad geographic distribution, and often high abundance of species in this group make them a highly accessible target for disease research. Moreover, a depth of background knowledge, close relationships to domesticated animals, and ongoing management of many wild ungulate species provide context, tools, and opportunity for cutting-edge research at the interface of ecological and biomedical sciences. Studies of wild ungulates are already helping to unravel some key challenges in infectious disease research, including the role of parasites in trophic cascades, the consequences of climate change for disease dynamics, and the systems biology of host–parasite interactions. Other areas where ungulate studies may provide new insight include research on the sources and drivers of emerging infectious diseases.

negative: CDC's Early Response to a Novel Viral Disease, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), September 2012-May 2014. The first ever case of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was reported in September 2012. This report describes the approaches taken by CDC, in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) and other partners, to respond to this novel virus, and outlines the agency responses prior to the first case appearing in the United States in May 2014. During this time, CDC's response integrated multiple disciplines and was divided into three distinct phases: before, during, and after the initial activation of its Emergency Operations Center. CDC's response to MERS-CoV required a large effort, deploying at least 353 staff members who worked in the areas of surveillance, laboratory capacity, infection control guidance, and travelers' health. This response built on CDC's experience with previous outbreaks of other pathogens and provided useful lessons for future emerging threats.

negative: Environmental factors, immune changes and respiratory diseases in troops during military activities Abstract Combat operations in contemporary theaters of war, as well as combat training, are carried out in all parts of the world, typically in a harsh environment. Specific environmental conditions, such as heat, cold, high-altitudes, desert climates, as well as chemical and biological pollution of both the atmosphere and soil, together with over-exertion, food restrictions, sleep deprivation, and psychological stress can all result in changes in the immune system and the occurrence of associated diseases. Respiratory diseases are one of the most common health problems among military personnel participating in combat training or deployed to operations in areas characterized by difficult climatic and sanitary conditions. They are, therefore, one of the main reasons for military personnel requiring ambulant and hospital treatment. The aim of the study was to discuss the influence of environmental factors and the conditions in which active duty is performed on changes in the immune system and the occurrence of respiratory tract diseases in a military environment.

negative: A human behavior integrated hierarchical model of airborne disease transmission in a large city Abstract Epidemics of infectious diseases such as SARS, H1N1, and MERS threaten public health, particularly in large cities such as Hong Kong. We constructed a human behavior integrated hierarchical (HiHi) model based on the SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, and Recovered) model, the Wells-Riley equation, and population movement considering both spatial and temporal dimensions. The model considers more than 7 million people, 3 million indoor environments, and 2566 public transport routes in Hong Kong. Smallpox, which could be spread through airborne routes, is studied as an example. The simulation is based on people's daily commutes and indoor human behaviors, which were summarized by mathematical patterns. We found that 59.6%, 18.1%, and 13.4% of patients become infected in their homes, offices, and schools, respectively. If both work stoppage and school closure measures are taken when the number of infected people is greater than 1000, an infectious disease will be effectively controlled after 2 months. The peak number of infected people will be reduced by 25% compared to taking no action, and the time of peak infections will be delayed by about 40 days if 90% of the infected people go to hospital during the infectious period. When ventilation rates in indoor environments increase to five times their default settings, smallpox will be naturally controlled. Residents of Kowloon and the north part of Hong Kong Island have a high risk of infection from airborne infectious diseases. Our HiHi model reduces the calculation time for infection rates to an acceptable level while preserving accuracy.

negative: Risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 infection in patients with chronic plaque psoriasis receiving a biological treatment and renal transplanted recipients in maintenance immunosuppressive treatment

negative: Public health and clinical laboratories: Partners in the age of emerging infections Clinical and public health laboratories have experienced unprecedented challenges in the form of demands to comply with revised regulations and economic pressures to be more efficient while preparing to respond to everything from pandemic influenza to bioterrorism. These forces have been an impetus for laboratorians to communicate, cooperate, and collaborate as never before and to seek the common ground where knowledge and resources can be shared to weather the profound economic and political forces at work today. The appearance of newly emerging and reemergent infections caused by agents of foodborne illness, anthrax, smallpox, plague, influenza, and other diseases has fostered cooperative network enterprises between clinical and public health laboratories, allowing the early detection of outbreaks of common and unusual pathogens and the measurement of the effectiveness of public health measures.

negative: AI-Driven Tools for Coronavirus Outbreak: Need of Active Learning and Cross-Population Train/Test Models on Multitudinal/Multimodal Data The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, which was identified in late 2019, requires special attention because of its future epidemics and possible global threats. Beside clinical procedures and treatments, since Artificial Intelligence (AI) promises a new paradigm for healthcare, several different AI tools that are built upon Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are employed for analyzing data and decision-making processes. This means that AI-driven tools help identify COVID-19 outbreaks as well as forecast their nature of spread across the globe. However, unlike other healthcare issues, for COVID-19, to detect COVID-19, AI-driven tools are expected to have active learning-based cross-population train/test models that employs multitudinal and multimodal data, which is the primary purpose of the paper.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 proteome microarray for mapping COVID-19 antibody interactions at amino acid resolution COVID-19 has quickly become a worldwide pandemic, which has significantly impacted the economy, education, and social interactions. Understanding the humoral antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 proteins may help identify biomarkers that can be used to detect and treat COVID-19 infection. However, no immuno-proteomics platform exists that can perform such proteome-wide analysis. To address this need, we created a SARS-CoV-2 proteome microarray to analyze antibody interactions at amino acid resolution by spotting peptides 15 amino acids long with 5-amino acid offsets representing full-length SARS-CoV-2 proteins. Moreover, the array processing time is short (1.5 hours), the dynamic range is ~2 orders of magnitude, and the lowest limit of detection is 94 pg/mL. Here, the SARS-CoV-2 proteome array reveals that antibodies commercially available for SARS-CoV-1 proteins can also target SARS-CoV-2 proteins. These readily available reagents could be used immediately in COVID-19 research. Second, IgM and IgG immunogenic epitopes of SARS-CoV-2 proteins were profiled in the serum of ten COVID-19 patients. Such epitope biomarkers provide insight into the immune response to COVID-19 and are potential targets for COVID-19 diagnosis and vaccine development. Finally, serological antibodies that may neutralize viral entry into host cells via the ACE2 receptor were identified. Further investigation into whether these antibodies can inhibit the propagation of SARS-CoV-2 is warranted. Antibody and epitope profiling in response to COVID-19 is possible with our peptide-based SARS-COV-2 proteome microarray. The data gleaned from the array could provide invaluable information to the scientific community to understand, detect, and treat COVID-19.

negative: COVID-19 pathophysiology: A review Abstract In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, now named as SARS-CoV-2, caused a series of acute atypical respiratory diseases in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. The disease caused by this virus was termed COVID-19. The virus is transmittable between humans and has caused pandemic worldwide. The number of death tolls continues to rise and a large number of countries have been forced to do social distancing and lockdown. Lack of targeted therapy continues to be a problem. Epidemiological studies showed that elder patients were more susceptible to severe diseases, while children tend to have milder symptoms. Here we reviewed the current knowledge about this disease and considered the potential explanation of the different symptomatology between children and adults.

negative: Péritonite infectieuse féline Résumé La péritonite infectieuse féline (PIF) est une maladie mortelle des félidés due à un coronavirus, qui touche surtout les jeunes animaux entre 6 mois et 2 ans. Cette maladie se traduit cliniquement par des symptômes divers dont le plus caractéristique est l'accumulation de liquide d'épanchement dans la cavité abdominale ou pleurale. Il existe en fait deux biotypes de coronavirus félins, l'un pathogène responsable de la PIF (FIPV) et l'autre non pathogène (FeCV), plus répandu dans la population féline. La forte homologie génétique entre les souches FeCV et FIPV suggère que les virus responsables de la PIF dérivent d'une mutation génétique des coronavirus non pathogènes FeCV. Cette parenté entre les deux biotypes pose un problème dans l'interprétation du diagnostic viral, car aucun test à l'heure actuelle ne permet de les distinguer. Cet article s'intéresse tout particulièrement aux aspects cliniques, diagnostiques, épidémiologiques et prophylactiques de la PIF. Abstract Feline infectious peritonitis is a fatal disease of felidae due to a feline coronavirus, occurring mainly in kittens between 6 months and 2 years. This disease manifests clinically in varied symptoms, the most characteristic being the accumulation of fluid in the abdominal or pleural cavity. In fact, there are two feline coronavirus biotypes, which include respectively the virulent strains that cause feline infectious peritonitis (FIPV) and the avirulent strains (FeCV) more common in feline population. The high genetic similarity between FeCV and FIPV strains suggests that FIPVs arise by mutation from avirulent coronavirus FeCVs. This link between the two biotypes makes viral laboratory diagnosis interpretation complex, as currently no diagnostic tool allows distinguishing them. This article presents recent information regarding aetiology, pathogenicity, clinical aspects, epidemiology, diagnosis and prophylaxis of this disease.

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): current status and future perspectives ABSTRACT Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) originated in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, Central China, and has spread quickly to 72 countries to date. COVID-19 is caused by a novel coronavirus, named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) [previously provisionally known as 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)]. At present, the newly identified SARS-CoV-2 has caused a large number of deaths with tens of thousands of confirmed cases worldwide, posing a serious threat to public health. However, there are no clinically approved vaccines or specific therapeutic drugs available for COVID-19. Intensive research on the newly emerged SARS-CoV-2 is urgently needed to elucidate the pathogenic mechanisms and epidemiological characteristics and to identify potential drug targets, which will contribute to the development of effective prevention and treatment strategies. Hence, this review will focus on recent progress regarding the structure of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of COVID-19, such as the aetiology, pathogenesis and epidemiological characteristics.

negative: Suppression of innate antiviral response by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus M protein is mediated through the first transmembrane domain Coronaviruses have developed various measures to evade innate immunity. We have previously shown that severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus M protein suppresses type I interferon (IFN) production by impeding the formation of functional TRAF3-containing complex. In this study, we demonstrate that the IFN-antagonizing activity is specific to SARS coronavirus M protein and is mediated through its first transmembrane domain (TM1) located at the N terminus. M protein from human coronavirus HKU1 does not inhibit IFN production. Whereas N-linked glycosylation of SARS coronavirus M protein has no influence on IFN antagonism, TM1 is indispensable for the suppression of IFN production. TM1 targets SARS coronavirus M protein and heterologous proteins to the Golgi apparatus, yet Golgi localization is required but not sufficient for IFN antagonism. Mechanistically, TM1 is capable of binding with RIG-I, TRAF3, TBK1 and IKKε, and preventing the interaction of TRAF3 with its downstream effectors. Our work defines the molecular architecture of SARS coronavirus M protein required for suppression of innate antiviral response.

negative: Enteric coronavirus infection in adult horses Abstract A new enteric virus of adult horses, equine coronavirus (ECoV), has recently been recognized. It is associated with fever, lethargy, anorexia, and less frequently, colic and diarrhea. This enteric virus is transmitted via the feco-oral route and horses become infected by ingesting fecally contaminated feed and water. Various outbreaks have been reported since 2010 from Japan, Europe and the USA. While the clinical signs are fairly non-specific, lymphopenia and neutropenia are often seen. Specific diagnosis is made by the detection of ECoV in feces by either quantitative real-time PCR, electron microscopy or antigen-capture ELISA. Supportive treatment is usually required, as most infections are self-limiting. However, rare complications, such as endotoxemia, septicemia and hyperammonemia-associated encephalopathy, have been reported, and have been related to the loss of barrier function at the intestinal mucosa. This review article will focus on the latest information pertaining to the virus, epidemiology, clinical signs, diagnosis, pathology, treatment and prevention of ECoV infection in adult horses.

negative: Visualising COVID-19 Pandemic Risk through Network Connectedness Abstract With the domestic and international spread of the COVID-19, much attention has been given to estimating pandemic risk. We propose the use of a novel application of a well-established scientific approach, network analysis, to provide a direct visualisation (the infographics in Figures 1 and 2) of the COVID-19 pandemic risk. By showing visually the degree of connectedness between different regions based on reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, we demonstrate that network analysis provides a relatively simple yet powerful way to estimate the pandemic risk.

negative: Inferring Infection Patterns Based on a Connectivity Map of Host Transcriptional Responses Host responses to infections represent an important pathogenicity determiner, and delineation of host responses can elucidate pathogenesis processes and inform the development of anti-infection therapies. Low cost, high throughput, easy quantitation, and rich descriptions have made gene expression profiling generated by DNA microarrays an optimal approach for describing host transcriptional responses (HTRs). However, efforts to characterize the landscape of HTRs to diverse pathogens are far from offering a comprehensive view. Here, we developed an HTR Connectivity Map based on systematic assessment of pairwise similarities of HTRs to 50 clinically important human pathogens using 1353 gene-expression profiles generated from >60 human cells/tissues. These 50 pathogens were further partitioned into eight robust “HTR communities” (i.e., groups with more consensus internal HTR similarities). These communities showed enrichment in specific infection attributes and differential gene expression patterns. Using query signatures of HTRs to external pathogens, we demonstrated four distinct modes of HTR associations among different pathogens types/class, and validated the reliability of the HTR community divisions for differentiating and categorizing pathogens from a host-oriented perspective. These findings provide a first-generation HTR Connectivity Map of 50 diverse pathogens, and demonstrate the potential for using annotated HTR community to detect functional associations among infectious pathogens.

negative: Molecular mechanisms of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a new infectious disease caused by a novel coronavirus that leads to deleterious pulmonary pathological features. Due to its high morbidity and mortality and widespread occurrence, SARS has evolved as an important respiratory disease which may be encountered everywhere in the world. The virus was identified as the causative agent of SARS due to the efforts of a WHO-led laboratory network. The potential mutability of the SARS-CoV genome may lead to new SARS outbreaks and several regions of the viral genomes open reading frames have been identified which may contribute to the severe virulence of the virus. With regard to the pathogenesis of SARS, several mechanisms involving both direct effects on target cells and indirect effects via the immune system may exist. Vaccination would offer the most attractive approach to prevent new epidemics of SARS, but the development of vaccines is difficult due to missing data on the role of immune system-virus interactions and the potential mutability of the virus. Even in a situation of no new infections, SARS remains a major health hazard, as new epidemics may arise. Therefore, further experimental and clinical research is required to control the disease.

negative: Prevalence and predictors of PTSS during COVID-19 outbreak in China hardest-hit areas: Gender differences matter Abstract The outbreak of COVID-19 in China in December 2019 has been identified as a pandemic and a health emergency of global concern. Our objective was to investigate the prevalence and predictors of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) in China hardest-hit areas during COVID-19 outbreak, especially exploring the gender difference existing in PTSS. One month after the December 2019 COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan China, we surveyed PTSS and sleep qualities among 285 residents in Wuhan and surrounding cities using the PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5) and 4 items from the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Hierarchical regression analysis and non-parametric test were used to analyze the data. Results indicated that the prevalence of PTSS in China hardest-hit areas a month after the COVID-19 outbreak was 7%. Women reported significant higher PTSS in the domains of re-experiencing, negative alterations in cognition or mood, and hyper-arousal. Participants with better sleep quality or less frequency of early awakenings reported lower PTSS. Professional and effective mental health services should be designed in order to aid the psychological wellbeing of the population in affected areas, especially those living in hardest-hit areas, females and people with poor sleep quality.

negative: Impact of extreme weather events on urban human flow: A perspective from location-based service data This study investigates the impact of extreme weather events on urban human flow disruptions using location-based service data obtained from Baidu Map. Utilizing the 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut as an example, the spatial and temporal variations of urban human flow patterns in Shenzhen are examined using GIS and spatial flow analysis. In addition, the variation of human flow by different urban functions (e.g. transport, recreational, institutional, commercial and residential related facilities) is also examined through an integration of flow data and point-of-interest (POI) data. The study reveals that urban flow patterns varied substantially before, during, and after the typhoon. Specifically, urban flows were found to have reduced by 39% during the disruption. Conversely, 56% of flows increased immediately after the disruption. In terms of functional variation, the assessment reveals that fundamental urban functions, such as industrial (work) and institutional - (education) related trips experienced less disruption, whereas the typhoon event appears to have a relatively larger negative influence on recreational related trips. Overall, the study provides implications for planners and policy makers to enhance urban resilience to disasters through a better understanding of the urban vulnerability to disruptive events.

negative: Partial RdRp sequences offer a robust method for Coronavirus subgenus classification The recent reclassification of the Riboviria, and the introduction of multiple new taxonomic categories including both subfamilies and subgenera for coronaviruses (family Coronaviridae, subfamily Orthocoronavirinae) represents a major shift in how official classifications are used to designate specific viral lineages. While the newly defined subgenera provide much-needed standardisation for commonly cited viruses of public health importance, no method has been proposed for the assignment of subgenus based on partial sequence data, or for sequences that are divergent from the designated holotype reference genomes. Here, we describe the genetic variation of a partial region of the coronavirus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), which is one of the most used partial sequence loci for both detection and classification of coronaviruses in molecular epidemiology. We infer Bayesian phylogenies from more than 7000 publicly available coronavirus sequences and examine clade groupings relative to all subgenus holotype sequences. Our phylogenetic analyses are largely coherent with genome-scale analyses based on designated holotype members for each subgenus. Distance measures between sequences form discrete clusters between taxa, offering logical threshold boundaries that can attribute subgenus or indicate sequences that are likely to belong to unclassified subgenera both accurately and robustly. We thus propose that partial RdRp sequence data of coronaviruses is sufficient for the attribution of subgenus-level taxonomic classifications and we supply the R package, “MyCoV”, which provides a method for attributing subgenus and assessing the reliability of the attribution. The analysis of polymerase chain reaction amplicons derived from biological samples is the most common modern method for detection and classification of infecting viral agents, such as Coronaviruses. Recent updates to the official standard for taxonomic classification of Coronaviruses, however, may leave researchers unsure as to whether the viral sequences they obtain by these methods can be classified into specific viral taxa due to variations in the sequences when compared to type strains. Here, we present a plausible method for defining genetic dissimilarity cut-offs that will allow researchers to state which taxon their virus belongs to and with what level of certainty. To assist in this, we also provide the R package ‘MyCoV’ which classifies user generated sequences.

negative: CORONAVIRUS VIRULENCE GENES WITH MAIN FOCUS ON SARS-CoV ENVELOPE GENE Coronavirus (CoV) infection is usually detected by cellular sensors, which trigger the activation of the innate immune system. Nevertheless, CoVs have evolved viral proteins that target different signaling pathways to counteract innate immune responses. Some CoV proteins act as antagonists of interferon (IFN) by inhibiting IFN production or signaling, aspects that are briefly addressed in this review. After CoV infection, potent cytokines relevant in controlling virus infections and priming adaptive immune responses are also generated. However, an uncontrolled induction of these proinflammatory cytokines can lead to pathogenesis and disease severity as described for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The cellular pathways mediated by interferon regulatory factor (IRF)-3 and 7, activating transcription factor (ATF)-2/jun, activator protein (AP)-1, nuclear factor kappa-light-chain-enhancer of activated B cells (NF-κB), and nuclear factor of activated T cells (NF-AT), are the main drivers of the inflammatory response triggered after viral infections, with NF-κB pathway the most frequently activated. Key CoV proteins involved in the regulation of these pathways and the proinflammatory immune response are revisited in this manuscript. It has been shown that the envelope (E) protein plays a variable role in CoV morphogenesis, depending on the CoV genus, being absolutely essential in some cases (genus α CoVs such as TGEV, and genus β CoVs such as MERS-CoV), but not in others (genus β CoVs such as MHV or SARS-CoV). A comprehensive accumulation of data has shown that the relatively small E protein elicits a strong influence on the interaction of SARS-CoV with the host. In fact, after infection with viruses in which this protein has been deleted, increased cellular stress and unfolded protein responses, apoptosis, and augmented host immune responses were observed. In contrast, the presence of E protein activated a pathogenic inflammatory response that may cause death in animal models and in humans. The modification or deletion of different motifs within E protein, including the transmembrane domain that harbors an ion channel activity, small sequences within the middle region of the carboxy-terminus of E protein, and its most carboxy-terminal end, which contains a PDZ domain-binding motif (PBM) is sufficient to attenuate the virus. Interestingly, a comprehensive collection of SARS-CoVs in which these motifs have been modified elicited full and long-term protection even in old mice, making those deletion mutants promising vaccine candidates. These data indicate that despite its small size, E protein drastically influences the replication of CoVs and their pathogenicity. Although E protein is not essential for CoV genome replication or subgenomic mRNA synthesis, it affects virus morphogenesis, budding, assembly, intracellular trafficking, and virulence. In fact, E protein is responsible in a significant proportion of the inflammasome activation and the associated inflammation elicited by SARS-CoV in the lung parenchyma. This exacerbated inflammation causes edema accumulation leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and, frequently, to the death of infected animal models or human patients.

negative: The relationship between the occurrence of undifferentiated bovine respiratory disease and titer changes to bovine coronavirus and bovine viral diarrhea virus in 3 Ontario feedlots. Serological evidence of previous viral exposure (titer at arrival) and current viral exposure (titer increase) during a 28-day study period, was used to determine if bovine coronavirus (BCV) or bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) was associated with the occurrence of undifferentiated bovine respiratory disease (UBRD) in feedlot calves. Neutralizing antibody titers to BCV and BVDV were determined for 852 animals from 3 Ontario feedlots. Calves at 2 of the 3 feedlots (n = 753) received a modified live 4-way viral vaccine containing BVDV. On arrival at the feedlots, 90% of animals were seropositive for BCV, while 39% of animals were seropositive for BVDV. This evidence of previous exposure to both viruses was associated with reduced subsequent UBRD risk. Evidence of exposure to BCV during the study period was common, as 50% of animals showed a 16-fold or greater titer increase; however, treatment for UBRD was not associated with titer change. Although the majority of animals were vaccinated for BVDV at arrival, within a feedlot, animals treated for UBRD had larger titer increases to BVDV than non-treated animals. Based on our findings we infer that BCV was not causally related to UBRD occurrence, however consistent with other literature, BVDV may be causally related to UBRD occurrence.

negative: Emergency tracheostomy during COVID 19 Pandemic in a head and neck surgical oncology unit • Awake, Emergency, Intervention for an Unsecured 'Unable to intubate' Critical upper airway obstruction is a surgical challenge. • Aerosolization and risk COVID 19 transmission add to the already existing difficulty of surgical restoration of critical airway obstruction. • Adequate personal protection, rapid restoration of the airway with the minimum aerosol generation, and prevention of COVID 19 dissemination are keys to the success of Emergency Tracheostomy during the Pandemic.

negative: Hazards There are many known hazards, including natural, man-made, and intentional. The source of risk is the wide range of hazards that are faced in almost every facet of life. The global society must contend with an array of hazards that may seem limitless, but which is actually limited owing to an individual’s genetics, spatial movements, habits, activities, and geographic locations. Physical location is the primary factor dictating what natural hazards a nation faces. Economic, industrial, and sociopolitical factors dictate hazards of technological and intentional origin. Moreover, with globalization, the speed and ease of international travel, and the emergence of global climate change patterns, every nation is connected to every other nation on the planet. This chapter begins with a short description of the disaster management processes of hazard identification and hazard analysis. Following this is a listing and descriptions of many of the hazards that possess catastrophic potential—in other words, those hazards that are capable of causing a disaster. Awareness of the hazards that affect a nation or region and full understanding of the causes and consequences of that hazard “portfolio” are the first steps in the disaster reduction process known as disaster risk management.

negative: Genotyping coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: Methods and implications Abstract The emerging global infectious COVID-19 disease by novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) presents critical threats to global public health and the economy since it was identified in late December 2019 in China. The virus has gone through various pathways of evolution. To understand the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2, genotyping of virus isolates is of great importance. This study presents an accurate method for effectively genotyping SARS-CoV-2 viruses using complete genomes. The method employs the multiple sequence alignments of the genome isolates with the SARS-CoV-2 reference genome. The single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes are then measured by Jaccard distances to track the relationship of virus isolates. The genotyping analysis of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the globe reveals that specific multiple mutations are the predominated mutation type during the current epidemic. The proposed method serves an effective tool for monitoring and tracking the epidemic of pathogenic viruses in their global and local genetic variations. The genotyping analysis shows that the genes encoding the S proteins and RNA polymerase, RNA primase, and nucleoprotein, undergo frequent mutations. These mutations are critical for vaccine development in disease control.

negative: Loss and Grief amidst COVID-19: A Path to Adaptation and Resilience Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an extreme threat to global health and become a leading cause of death worldwide. Loss, as a more encompassing theme, interweaves many aspects of people’s life in this challenging time. Failure to address the pressing needs of those experiencing loss and grief may result in poor mental and physical health. Recognizing the uniqueness of each individual and their loss and grief will provide opportunities to develop tailored strategies that facilitate functional adaptation to loss and promote mental health and wellbeing in this crisis.

negative: ISG15: It's Complicated Abstract Interferon-stimulated gene product 15 (ISG15) is a key component of host responses to microbial infection. Despite having been known for four decades, grasping the functions and features of ISG15 has been a slow and elusive process. Substantial work over the past two decades has greatly enhanced this understanding, revealing the complex and variable nature of this protein. This has unveiled multiple mechanisms of action that are only now beginning to be understood. In addition, it has uncovered diversity not only between how ISG15 affects different pathogens but also between the function and structure of ISG15 itself between different host species. Here we review the complexity of ISG15 within the context of viral infection, focusing primarily on its antiviral function and the mechanisms viruses employ to thwart its effects. We highlight what is known regarding the impact of ISG15 sequence and structural diversity on these interactions and discuss the aspects presenting the next frontier toward elucidating a more complete picture of ISG15 function.

negative: Horses as a Crucial Part of One Health One Health (OH) is a crucial concept, where the interference between humans, animals and the environment matters. This review article focusses on the role of horses in maintaining the health of humans and the environment. Horses’ impact on environmental health includes their influence on soil and the biodiversity of animal and plant species. Nevertheless, the effect of horses is not usually linear and several factors like plant–animal coevolutionary history, climate and animal density play significant roles. The long history of the relationship between horses and humans is shaped by the service of horses in wars or even in mines. Moreover, horses were essential in developing the first antidote to cure diphtheria. Nowadays, horses do have an influential role in animal assisted therapy, in supporting livelihoods in low income countries and as a leisure partner. Horses are of relevance in the spillover of zoonotic and emerging diseases from wildlife to human (e.g., Hendra Virus), and in non-communicable diseases (e.g., post-traumatic osteoarthritis in horses and back pain in horse riders). Furthermore, many risk factors—such as climate change and antimicrobial resistance—threaten the health of both horses and humans. Finally, the horse is a valuable factor in sustaining the health of humans and the environment, and must be incorporated in any roadmap to achieve OH.

negative: Chest computed tomography findings and dynamic changes of severe coronavirus disease 2019/ 中华传染病杂志 Objective@#To investigate the features of chest CT imaging and dynamic changes of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).@*Methods@#The clinical and computed tomography (CT) data of 17 patients diagnosed with severe COVID-19 admitted to Chongqing Public Health Medical Center from January 24 to February 6, 2020 were collected. The first chest CT manifestations and the dynamic changes of imaging during treatment were retrospectively analyzed.@*Results@#The first chest CT manifestations of the 17 patients showed that 16 cases presented with peripheral and subpleural distributions, and 2 cases presented with 3 lobes involved, one case with 4 lobes involved and 14 cases with 5 lobes involved, and 17 cases presented with ground-glass opacities, ten cases with consolidation, seven cases with subpleural line, nine cases with air bronchogram, 3 cases with thickened lobular septum, two cases with bronchiectasis, two cases with pleural effusion, two cases with lymphadenopathy with the short diameter of 1.0-1.2cm. Among 16 patients who underwent repeated CT examination, the lesions of 8 patients showed continuous improvement, and those of the other 8 patients showed fluctuating changes.@*Conclusions@#The CT findings of severe COVID-19 patients are mainly ground-glass opacities and consolidation, with the peripheral distribution. The range of lesions is wide, with 5-lobe involvement mostly. Lymphadenopathy or pleural effusion is rare. Chest CT is useful for the evaluation for the therapeutic effects.

negative: Visualising COVID-19 Pandemic Risk through Network Connectedness With the domestic and international spread of the COVID-19, much attention has been given to estimating pandemic risk. We propose the use of a novel application of a well-established scientific approach, network analysis, to provide a direct visualisation (the infographics in Figures 1 and 2) of the COVID-19 pandemic risk. By showing visually the degree of connectedness between different regions based on reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, we demonstrate that network analysis provides a relatively simple yet powerful way to estimate the pandemic risk.

negative: Immune responses and histopathological changes in rabbits immunized with inactivated SARS coronavirus To evaluate the immunogenicity of inactivated SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), three groups of rabbits were immunized three times at 2-week intervals with inactivated vaccine + adjuvant, adjuvant, and normal saline respectively. Eight batchs of serum were sampled from the auricular vein at day 7 to day 51, and specific IgG antibody titers and neutralizing antibody titers were detected by indirect ELISA and micro-cytopathic effect neutralizing test. Antibody specificity was identified by proteinchip assay. Histopathological changes were detected by H&E staining. The results showed that, rabbits in the experimental group immunized with inactivated SARS-CoV all generated specific IgG antibodies with neutralizing activity, which suggested the inactivated SARS-CoV could preserve its antigenicity well and elicit an effective humoral immune responses. The peak titer value of specific IgG antibody and neutralizing antibody reached 1:40960 and 1:2560 respectively. In the experimental group, no obvious histopathological changes was detected in the H&E stained slides of heart, spleen, kidney and testis samples, but the livers had slight histopathological changes, and the lungs presented remarkable histopathological changes. These findings are of importance for SARS-CoV inactivated vaccine development.

negative: Linking resource supplies and price drivers: Lessons from Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) price volatility and change, 2002–2017 Abstract Ethnopharmacological relevance Worldwide, one of the drivers of substitution and adulteration is the cost of the natural resources (plants, animals, fungi) that are ingredients of traditional medicines. Relatively few studies have been done that link prices of traditional medicine ingredients to what drives changes in price, yet this is an important topic. Theoretically, prices have been widely considered as an economic indicator of resource scarcity. Rare, slow growing medicinal plants sell for high prices and common, less popular species for low prices. Price levels also influence the viability of farming vs. wild harvest (and incentives to overharvest high value species when tenure is weak). Prices can also influence the harvesting or buying behaviour of harvesters, traders or manufacturers. When prices are high, then there is a greater incentive to use cheaper substitute species or adulterants. As previous studies on herbal medicine ingredients have shown, adulteration applies in a wide variety of cases, including to some Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) species. Aim of the study The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of which factors influenced changes in the market prices of document prices for four popular, but very different traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) species (2002 – 2017). Materials and methods Fluctuations in market prices were followed over a 15-year period (2002–2017) for four very different TCM ingredients: two plant species (one wild harvested for fruits (Schisandra sphenanthera Rehder & E.H. Wilson) the other in a transition from wild harvest to cultivation (Paris polyphylla Smith), an animal species (the Tokay gecko (Gekko gecko L.)) and the entomophagous “caterpillar fungus” (Ophiocordyceps sinensis (Berk). G.H. Sung, J.M. Sung, Hywel-Jones & Spatafora). Results High prices of medicinal plants are widely considered to reflect resource scarcity. Real-time market prices for three of the four very different TCM species we studied all showed major price fluctuations. The exception was P. polyphylla, whose wild populations are widely known to be increasingly scarce, where there was a steady increase in price, with few fluctuations in the upward price trend. The three other species showed significant price fluctuations. These were driven by multiple factors. Ecological and biogeographic factors that influence abundance or scarcity of supply certainly played a role. But other factors were also influential. These included both national and global economic factors (the influence of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)), national policy changes that in turn influenced businessmen giving expensive gifts (that included O. sinensis)), climate change (influencing fruiting success of S. sphenanthera), price speculation by traders and lack of information (e.g: reduction in G. gecko prices due to traders incorrectly believing that domestication would increase supplies). Conclusions Price fluctuations in the four TCM species we examined are influenced by many factors and not just resource scarcity. And the situation is more complex than the trajectory based on Homma's (1992) model, where he predicted that higher prices would result in a shift to cultivation, thus replacing wild harvest. In case of both O. sinensis and P. polyphylla, Homma (1992, 1996) was right in terms of scarcity and high prices stimulating a major investment in cultivation (P. polyphylla) and artificial production (O. sinensis). But in both cases, intensive production through cultivation or artificial propagation do not yet occur on a large enough scale to reduce harvest of wild stocks. Substitution and adulteration occur with all four species. Improving information to medicinal plant traders on the supply status of TCM stocks, whether from wild harvest or from cultivation could benefit product quality, cultivation initiatives and conservation efforts.

negative: Mechanisms of viral emergence A number of virologic and environmental factors are involved in the emergence and re-emergence of viral disease. Viruses do not conservatively occupy a single and permanent ecological niche. Rather, due to their intrinsic capacity for genetic change, and to the evolvability of fitness levels, viruses display a potential to parasitize alternative host species. Mutation, recombination and genome segment reassortment, and combination of these molecular events, produce complex and phenotypically diverse populations of viruses, which constitute the raw material on which selection acts. The majority of emerging viral diseases of humans have a zoonotic origin. Sociologic and ecologic factors produce diverse and changing environments in which viral subpopulations have ample opportunities to be selected from intrinsically heterogeneous viral populations, particularly in the case of RNA viruses. In this manner, new human, animal and plant viruses have emerged periodically and, from all evidence, will continue to emerge. This article reviews some of the mechanisms that have been identified in viral emergence, with a focus on the importance of genetic variation of viruses, and on the general concept of biological complexity.

negative: Fatalism in the context of COVID-19: Perceiving coronavirus as a death sentence predicts reluctance to perform recommended preventative behaviors() To manage the spread of coronavirus, health entities have urged the public to take preventative measures such as social distancing and handwashing. Yet, many appear reluctant to take these measures. Research is needed to understand factors underlying such reluctance, with the aim of developing targeted health interventions. We identify associating coronavirus with death as one such factor. 590 participants completed surveys in mid-March 2020, which included attitudes toward coronavirus, preventative behavioral intentions, and sociodemographic factors. Associating coronavirus with death negatively predicted intentions to perform preventative behaviors. Further, associating coronavirus with death was not evenly distributed throughout the sample and was related with a number of sociodemographic factors including age, race, and availability of sick leave. Following recommended preventative measures to slow the spread of coronavirus appears to relate to the degree to which people associate coronavirus with death. These findings can be used by public health researchers and practitioners to identify those for whom targeted health communication and interventions would be most beneficial, as well as to frame health messaging in ways that combat fatalism.

negative: Pangolins Harbor SARS-CoV-2-Related Coronaviruses The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by SARS-CoV-2 has posed a severe threat to global public health. Yet, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 remains mysterious. Several recent studies (e.g., Lam et al ., Xiao et al .) identified SARS-CoV-2-related viruses in pangolins, providing novel insights into the evolution and diversity of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses.

negative: Viral evasion of intracellular DNA and RNA sensing The co-evolution of viruses with their hosts has led to the emergence of viral pathogens that are adept at evading or actively suppressing host immunity. Pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) are key components of antiviral immunity that detect conserved molecular features of viral pathogens and initiate signalling that results in the expression of antiviral genes. In this Review, we discuss the strategies that viruses use to escape immune surveillance by key intracellular sensors of viral RNA or DNA, with a focus on RIG-I-like receptors (RLRs), cyclic GMP–AMP synthase (cGAS) and interferon-γ (IFNγ)-inducible protein 16 (IFI16). Such viral strategies include the sequestration or modification of viral nucleic acids, interference with specific post-translational modifications of PRRs or their adaptor proteins, the degradation or cleavage of PRRs or their adaptors, and the sequestration or relocalization of PRRs. An understanding of viral immune-evasion mechanisms at the molecular level may guide the development of vaccines and antivirals.

negative: Global networks and global change-induced tipping points The existence of “tipping points” in human–environmental systems at multiple scales—such as abrupt negative changes in coral reef ecosystems, “runaway” climate change, and interacting nonlinear “planetary boundaries”—is often viewed as a substantial challenge for governance due to their inherent uncertainty, potential for rapid and large system change, and possible cascading effects on human well-being. Despite an increased scholarly and policy interest in the dynamics of these perceived “tipping points,” institutional and governance scholars have yet to make progress on how to analyze in which ways state and non-state actors attempt to anticipate, respond, and prevent the transgression of “tipping points” at large scales. In this article, we use three cases of global network responses to what we denote as global change-induced “tipping points”—ocean acidification, fisheries collapse, and infectious disease outbreaks. Based on the commonalities in several research streams, we develop four working propositions: information processing and early warning, multilevel and multinetwork responses, diversity in response capacity, and the balance between efficiency and legitimacy. We conclude by proposing a simple framework for the analysis of the interplay between perceived global change-induced “tipping points,” global networks, and international institutions.

negative: Advice-giving in newspaper weather commentaries Abstract Receiving accurate and timely advice about extreme weather events can impact a person's likelihood to survive, cope with and minimise exposure. Advice-giving seems to be a common interpersonal strategy in weather commentaries in many Chinese newspapers, yet research into weather advice-giving is greatly lacking. This study investigated whether the discourse of advice-giving in newspaper weather commentaries differed depending on the newspaper source and/or on the weather reported. We focused on two popular metropolitan newspapers: Beijing Morning Post and Beijing Evening News. Forty texts from each source were chosen (20 for ordinary weather and 20 for extreme weather). Results showed that the advice given stems from a vast reservoir of advice themes, and we found clear differences depending on weather, with significantly more advice given during extreme events. We also found that Beijing Evening News, in general, provided more advice in their weather commentaries. Finally, writers who were prone to take an authoritative stance tended to increase their use of imperatives and “high-status” vocatives during extreme weather, whereas those who positioned themselves “with” their readers also used more imperatives, but did not change their vocative preferences.

negative: Perioperative measurement of core body temperature using an unobtrusive passive heat flow sensor. Clinicians strive to maintain normothermia, which requires measurement of core-body temperature and may necessitate active warming of patients. Monitoring temperature currently requires invasive probes. This work investigates a novel foam-based flexible sensor worn behind the ear for the measurement of core body temperature. This observational study uses the device prototype and clinical data to compare three methods for calculating the temperature from this sensor: a basic heat-flow model, a new dynamic model that addresses changing surrounding temperatures and one that combines the dynamic model with a correction for adhesive quality. Clinical validation was performed with 21 surgical patients (average length of surgery 4.4 h) using an esophageal temperature probe as reference. The operative period was divided into four segments: normal periods (with stable surrounding temperatures), surrounding temperatures increasing due to the use of the Bair Hugger™, stable periods during Bair Hugger™ use and surrounding temperatures decreasing due to its removal. The error bias and limits of agreement over these segments were on average of - 0.05 ± 0.28 °C (95% limits of agreement) overall. The dynamic model outperformed the simple heat-flow model for periods of surrounding temperature changes (12.7% of total time) while it had a similar, high, performance for the temperature-stable periods. The results suggest that our proposed topical sensor can replace invasive core temp sensors and provide a means of consistently measuring core body temperature despite surrounding temperature shifts.

negative: Attenuation of replication by a 29 nucleotide deletion in SARS-coronavirus acquired during the early stages of human-to-human transmission A 29 nucleotide deletion in open reading frame 8 (ORF8) is the most obvious genetic change in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) during its emergence in humans. In spite of intense study, it remains unclear whether the deletion actually reflects adaptation to humans. Here we engineered full, partially deleted (−29 nt), and fully deleted ORF8 into a SARS-CoV infectious cDNA clone, strain Frankfurt-1. Replication of the resulting viruses was compared in primate cell cultures as well as Rhinolophus bat cells made permissive for SARS-CoV replication by lentiviral transduction of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor. Cells from cotton rat, goat, and sheep provided control scenarios that represent host systems in which SARS-CoV is neither endemic nor epidemic. Independent of the cell system, the truncation of ORF8 (29 nt deletion) decreased replication up to 23-fold. The effect was independent of the type I interferon response. The 29 nt deletion in SARS-CoV is a deleterious mutation acquired along the initial human-to-human transmission chain. The resulting loss of fitness may be due to a founder effect, which has rarely been documented in processes of viral emergence. These results have important implications for the retrospective assessment of the threat posed by SARS.

negative: Seasonal Variation of Newly Notified Pulmonary Tuberculosis Cases from 2004 to 2013 in Wuhan, China BACKGROUND: Although there was a report about the seasonal variation in Wuhan city, it only analyzed the prevalence data of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) cases, and just studied the seasonality by subgroup of smear positive and negative from 2006 to 2010 by spectral analysis. In this study, we investigated the seasonality of the total newly notified pulmonary TB cases by subgroups such as time period, sex, age, occupation, district, and sputum smear result from 2004 to 2013 in Wuhan by a popular seasonal adjustment model (TRAMO-SEATS). METHODS: Monthly pulmonary TB cases from 2004 to 2013 in Wuhan were analyzed by the TRAMO-SEATS seasonal adjustment program. Seasonal amplitude was calculated and compared within the subgroups. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2013, there were 77.76 thousand newly notified pulmonary TB cases in Wuhan, China. There was a dominant peak spring peak (March) with seasonal amplitude of 56.81% and a second summer peak (September) of 43.40%, compared with the trough month (December). The spring seasonal amplitude in 2004–2008 was higher than that of 2009–2013(P<0.05). There were no statistical differences for spring seasonal amplitude within subgroups of gender, age, district, and sputum smear result (P>0.05). However, there were significant differences in spring seasonal amplitude by occupation, with amplitude ranging from 59.37% to 113.22% (P<0.05). The summer seasonal amplitude in 2004–2008 was higher than that of 2009–2013(P<0.05). There were no statistical differences in summer seasonal amplitude within subgroups of gender, district, sputum smear result(P>0.05). There were significant differences in summer seasonal amplitude by age, with amplitude ranging from 36.05% to 100.09% (P<0.05). Also, there were significant differences in summer seasonal amplitude by occupation, with amplitude ranging from 43.40% to 109.88% (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: There was an apparent seasonal variation in pulmonary TB cases in Wuhan. We speculated that spring peak in our study was most likely caused by the increased reactivation of the latent TB due to vitamin D deficiency and high PM2.5 concentration, while the summer peak was mainly resulted from the enhanced winter transmission due to indoor crowding in winter, overcrowding of public transportation over the period of the Spring Festival and health care seeking delay in winter.

negative: Transient Dominant Selection for the Modification and Generation of Recombinant Infectious Bronchitis Coronaviruses We have developed a reverse genetics system for the avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) in which a full-length cDNA corresponding to the IBV genome is inserted into the vaccinia virus genome under the control of a T7 promoter sequence. Vaccinia virus as a vector for the full-length IBV cDNA has the advantage that modifications can be introduced into the IBV cDNA using homologous recombination, a method frequently used to insert and delete sequences from the vaccinia virus genome. Here we describe the use of transient dominant selection as a method for introducing modifications into the IBV cDNA. We have used it successfully for the substitution of specific nucleotides, deletion of genomic regions, and the exchange of complete genes. Infectious recombinant IBVs are generated in situ following the transfection of vaccinia virus DNA containing the modified IBV cDNA into cells infected with a recombinant fowlpox virus expressing T7 DNA-dependent RNA polymerase.

negative: Risk communication and management in public health crises

negative: A Cross-Domain Approach to Analyzing the Short-Run Impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. Electricity Sector The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread around the globe in 2020, with the U.S. becoming the epicenter of COVID-19 cases since late March. As the U.S. begins to gradually resume economic activity, it is imperative for policymakers and power system operators to take a scientific approach to understanding and predicting the impact on the electricity sector. Here, we release a first-of-its-kind cross-domain open-access data hub, integrating data from across all existing U.S. wholesale electricity markets with COVID-19 case, weather, cellular location, and satellite imaging data. Leveraging cross-domain insights from public health and mobility data, we uncover a significant reduction in electricity consumption across that is strongly correlated with the rise in the number of COVID-19 cases, degree of social distancing, and level of commercial activity.

negative: Rapid and accurate identification of COVID-19 infection through machine learning based on clinical available blood test results Since the sudden outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), it has rapidly evolved into a momentous global health concern. Due to the lack of constructive information on the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and specific treatment, it highlights the importance of early diagnosis and timely treatment. In this study, 11 key blood indices were extracted through random forest algorithm to build the final assistant discrimination tool from 49 clinical available blood test data which were derived by commercial blood test equipments. The method presented robust outcome to accurately identify COVID-19 from a variety of suspected patients with similar CT information or similar symptoms, with accuracy of 0.9795 and 0.9697 for the cross-validation set and test set, respectively. The tool also demonstrated its outstanding performance on an external validation set that was completely independent of the modeling process, with sensitivity, specificity, and overall accuracy of 0.9512, 0.9697, and 0.9595, respectively. Besides, 24 samples from overseas infected patients with COVID-19 were used to make an in-depth clinical assessment with accuracy of 0.9167. After multiple verification, the reliability and repeatability of the tool has been fully evaluated, and it has the potential to develop into an emerging technology to identify COVID-19 and lower the burden of global public health. The proposed tool is well-suited to carry out preliminary assessment of suspected patients and help them to get timely treatment and quarantine suggestion. The assistant tool is now available online at http://lishuyan.lzu.edu.cn/COVID2019_2/.

negative: COVID-19 Infection: Implications for Perioperative and Critical Care Physicians Healthcare systems worldwide are responding to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), an emerging infectious syndrome caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Patients with COVID-19 can progress from asymptomatic or mild illness to hypoxemic respiratory failure or multisystem organ failure, necessitating intubation and intensive care management. Healthcare providers, and particularly anesthesiologists, are at the frontline of this epidemic, and they need to be aware of the best available evidence to guide therapeutic management of patients with COVID-19 and to keep themselves safe while doing so. Here, the authors review COVID-19 pathogenesis, presentation, diagnosis, and potential therapeutics, with a focus on management of COVID-19–associated respiratory failure. The authors draw on literature from other viral epidemics, treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome, and recent publications on COVID-19, as well as guidelines from major health organizations. This review provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence currently available to guide management of critically ill patients with COVID-19.

negative: Factors affecting stability and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 BACKGROUND: In late 2019, a novel human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China. This virus has caused a global pandemic involving more than 200 countries. SARS-CoV-2 is highly adapted to humans and readily transmits from person-to-person. AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 under various environmental factors, disinfectants and different pH conditions. The efficacy of a variety of laboratory virus inactivation methods and home disinfectants against SARS-CoV-2 were investigated. METHODS: The residual virus in dried form or in solution was titrated on Vero E6 cell line at day 0, 1, 3, 5, and 7 after incubation at different temperatures. The viability of virus was determined after treatment with different disinfectants and pH solutions at room temperature (20∼25(o)C). FINDINGS: SARS-CoV-2 was able to retain viability for 3-5 days in dried form or 7 days in solution at room temperature. SARS-CoV-2 could be detected under a wide range of pH conditions from pH4 to pH11 for several days and 1 to 2 days in stool at room temperature but lost 5 logs of infectivity. A variety of commonly used disinfectants and laboratory inactivation procedures were found to reduce viral viability effectively. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces and raises the possibility of faecal-oral transmission. Commonly used fixatives, nucleic acid extraction methods and heat inactivation were found to significantly reduce viral infectivity that could ensure hospital and laboratory safety during the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: A single amino acid mutation in the spike protein of coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus hampers its maturation and incorporation into virions at the nonpermissive temperature Abstract The spike (S) glycoprotein of coronavirus is responsible for receptor binding and membrane fusion. A number of variants with deletions and mutations in the S protein have been isolated from naturally and persistently infected animals and tissue cultures. Here, we report the emergence and isolation of two temperature sensitive (ts) mutants and a revertant in the process of cold-adaptation of coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) to a monkey kidney cell line. The complete sequences of wild type (wt) virus, two ts mutants, and the revertant were compared and variations linked to phenotypes were mapped. A single amino acid reversion (L294-to-Q) in the S protein is sufficient to abrogate the ts phenotype. Interestingly, unlike wt virus, the revertant grows well at and below 32 °C, the permissive temperature, as it carries other mutations in multiple genes that might be associated with the cold-adaptation phenotype. If the two ts mutants were allowed to enter cells at 32 °C, the S protein was synthesized, core-glycosylated and at least partially modified at 40 °C. However, compared with wt virus and the revertant, no infectious particles of these ts mutants were assembled and released from the ts mutant-infected cells at 40 °C. Evidence presented demonstrated that the Q294-to-L294 mutation, located at a highly conserved domain of the S1 subunit, might hamper processing of the S protein to a matured 180-kDa, endo-glycosidase H-resistant glycoprotein and the translocation of the protein to the cell surface. Consequently, some essential functions of the S protein, including mediation of cell-to-cell fusion and its incorporation into virions, were completely abolished.

negative: Localization to the nucleolus is a common feature of coronavirus nucleoproteins, and the protein may disrupt host cell division. The subcellular localization of transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) (group I and group II coronaviruses, respectively) nucleoproteins (N proteins) were examined by confocal microscopy. The proteins were shown to localize either to the cytoplasm alone or to the cytoplasm and a structure in the nucleus. This feature was confirmed to be the nucleolus by using specific antibodies to nucleolin, a major component of the nucleolus, and by confocal microscopy to image sections through a cell expressing N protein. These findings are consistent with our previous report for infectious bronchitis virus (group III coronavirus) (J. A. Hiscox et al., J. Virol. 75:506-512, 2001), indicating that nucleolar localization of the N protein is a common feature of the coronavirus family and is possibly of functional significance. Nucleolar localization signals were identified in the domain III region of the N protein from all three coronavirus groups, and this suggested that transport of N protein to the nucleus might be an active process. In addition, our results suggest that the N protein might function to disrupt cell division. Thus, we observed that approximately 30% of cells transfected with the N protein appeared to be undergoing cell division. The most likely explanation for this is that the N protein induced a cell cycle delay or arrest, most likely in the G(2)/M phase. In a fraction of transfected cells expressing coronavirus N proteins, we observed multinucleate cells and dividing cells with nucleoli (which are only present during interphase). These findings are consistent with the possible inhibition of cytokinesis in these cells.

negative: COVID-19 pneumonia manifestations at the admission on chest ultrasound, radiographs, and CT: single-center study and comprehensive radiologic literature review PURPOSE: To investigate the imaging features of emerging COVID-19 pneumonia on chest ultrasound (US), radiographs (CXR) and computed tomography (CT) examinations performed at admission and to provide a comprehensive radiological literature review on ongoing radiological data from recent publications. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective single-center study, we enrolled consecutive patients from February 15, 2020, to March 15, 2020, with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalized in Valduce Hospital (Como, Italy). Multi-modality imaging findings were evaluated and compared. Literature research was conducted through a methodical search on Pubmed and Embase databases. RESULTS: Fifty-eight patients (36 men, 22 women; age range, 18–98 years) were included in the study. Among these, chest US, CXR, and CT were performed respectively in twenty-two, thirty-two and forty-two patients. Lung US findings were consistent with diffuse B lines (100%) and subpleural consolidations (27.3%). CXR showed prevalent manifestations of consolidations (46.9%) and hazy increased opacities (37.5%). Typical CT features included bilateral and multilobar ground-glass opacities (GGO) with (59.5%) and without (35.7%) consolidations having a predominantly peripheral distribution (64.3%). Other imaging features included crazy paving pattern (57.1%), fibrous stripes (50%), subpleural lines (35.7%), architectural distortion (28.6%), air bronchogram sign (26.2%), vascular thickening (23.8%) and nodules (2.4%). Also, enlarged lymph nodes (14.3 %) and pleural effusion (7.1%) were observed. The literature review identified twenty-six original studies supporting our imaging chest findings. CONCLUSION: The spectrum of chest imaging manifestations of COVID-19 pneumonia upon admission includes B-lines and consolidations on US, consolidations and hazy increased opacities on CXR, and multifocal GGO with consolidations on CT.

negative: Coronavirus Disease 2019: Coronaviruses and Blood Safety Abstract With the outbreak of unknown pneumonia in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, a new coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), aroused the attention of the entire world. The current outbreak of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is termed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 in China as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Two other coronavirus infections—SARS in 2002-2003 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in 2012—both caused severe respiratory syndrome in humans. All 3 of these emerging infectious diseases leading to a global spread are caused by β-coronaviruses. Although coronaviruses usually infect the upper or lower respiratory tract, viral shedding in plasma or serum is common. Therefore, there is still a theoretical risk of transmission of coronaviruses through the transfusion of labile blood products. Because more and more asymptomatic infections are being found among COVID-19 cases, considerations of blood safety and coronaviruses have arisen especially in endemic areas. In this review, we detail current evidence and understanding of the transmission of SARS-CoV, MERS–CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 through blood products as of February 10, 2020, and also discuss pathogen inactivation methods on coronaviruses.

negative: Health equity and distributive justice considerations in critical care resource allocation

negative: Bovine Coronavirus Associated Syndromes Bovine coronaviruses, like other animal coronaviruses, have a predilection for intestinal and respiratory tracts. The viruses responsible for enteric and respiratory symptoms are closely related antigenically and genetically. Only 4 bovine coronavirus isolates have been completely sequenced and thus, the information about the genetics of the virus is still limited. This article reviews the clinical syndromes associated with bovine coronavirus, including pneumonia in calves and adult cattle, calf diarrhea, and winter dysentery; diagnostic methods; prevention using vaccination; and treatment, with adjunctive immunotherapy.

negative: A Markov chain model for predicting transient particle transport in enclosed environments Abstract Obtaining information about particle dispersion in a room is crucial in reducing the risk of infectious disease transmission among occupants. This study developed a Markov chain model for quickly obtaining the information on the basis of a steady-state flow field calculated by computational fluid dynamics. When solving the particle transport equations, the Markov chain model does not require iterations in each time step, and thus it can significantly reduce the computing cost. This study used two sets of experimental data for transient particle transport to validate the model. In general, the trends in the particle concentration distributions predicted by the Markov chain model agreed reasonably well with the experimental data. This investigation also applied the model to the calculation of person-to-person particle transport in a ventilated room. The Markov chain model produced similar results to those of the Lagrangian and Eulerian models, while the speed of calculation increased by 8.0 and 6.3 times, respectively, in comparison to the latter two models.

negative: Structure-based modeling of SARS-CoV-2 peptide/HLA-A02 antigens As a first step toward the development of diagnostic and therapeutic tools to fight the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we aim to characterize CD8+ T cell epitopes in the SARS-CoV-2 peptidome that can trigger adaptive immune responses. Here, we use RosettaMHC, a comparative modeling approach which leverages existing high-resolution X-ray structures from peptide/MHC complexes available in the Protein Data Bank, to derive physically realistic 3D models for high-affinity SARS-CoV-2 epitopes. We outline an application of our method to model 439 9mer and 279 10mer predicted epitopes displayed by the common allele HLA-A*02:01, and we make our models publicly available through an online database (https://rosettamhc.chemistry.ucsc.edu). As more detailed studies on antigen-specific T cell repertoires become available, RosettaMHC models of antigens from different strains and HLA alleles can be used as a basis to understand the link between peptide/HLA complex structure and surface chemistry with immunogenicity, in the context of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: Using Social Media to Mine and Analyze Public Opinion Related to COVID-19 in China The outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a grave global public health emergency. Nowadays, social media has become the main channel through which the public can obtain information and express their opinions and feelings. This study explored public opinion in the early stages of COVID-19 in China by analyzing Sina-Weibo (a Twitter-like microblogging system in China) texts in terms of space, time, and content. Temporal changes within one-hour intervals and the spatial distribution of COVID-19-related Weibo texts were analyzed. Based on the latent Dirichlet allocation model and the random forest algorithm, a topic extraction and classification model was developed to hierarchically identify seven COVID-19-relevant topics and 13 sub-topics from Weibo texts. The results indicate that the number of Weibo texts varied over time for different topics and sub-topics corresponding with the different developmental stages of the event. The spatial distribution of COVID-19-relevant Weibo was mainly concentrated in Wuhan, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration. There is a synchronization between frequent daily discussions on Weibo and the trend of the COVID-19 outbreak in the real world. Public response is very sensitive to the epidemic and significant social events, especially in urban agglomerations with convenient transportation and a large population. The timely dissemination and updating of epidemic-related information and the popularization of such information by the government can contribute to stabilizing public sentiments. However, the surge of public demand and the hysteresis of social support demonstrated that the allocation of medical resources was under enormous pressure in the early stage of the epidemic. It is suggested that the government should strengthen the response in terms of public opinion and epidemic prevention and exert control in key epidemic areas, urban agglomerations, and transboundary areas at the province level. In controlling the crisis, accurate response countermeasures should be formulated following public help demands. The findings can help government and emergency agencies to better understand the public opinion and sentiments towards COVID-19, to accelerate emergency responses, and to support post-disaster management.

negative: Crime and coronavirus: social distancing, lockdown, and the mobility elasticity of crime Governments around the world restricted movement of people, using social distancing and lockdowns, to help stem the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We examine crime effects for one UK police force area in comparison to 5-year averages. There is variation in the onset of change by crime type, some declining from the WHO ‘global pandemic’ announcement of 11 March, others later. By 1 week after the 23 March lockdown, all recorded crime had declined 41%, with variation: shoplifting (− 62%), theft (− 52%), domestic abuse (− 45%), theft from vehicle (− 43%), assault (− 36%), burglary dwelling (− 25%) and burglary non-dwelling (− 25%). We use Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports to calculate the mobility elasticity of crime for four crime types, finding shoplifting and other theft inelastic but responsive to reduced retail sector mobility (MEC = 0.84, 0.71 respectively), burglary dwelling elastic to increases in residential area mobility (− 1), with assault inelastic but responsive to reduced workplace mobility (0.56). We theorise that crime rate changes were primarily caused by those in mobility, suggesting a mobility theory of crime change in the pandemic. We identify implications for crime theory, policy and future research.

negative: Metagenomics detection and characterisation of viruses in faecal samples from Australian wild birds We present an optimised metagenomics method for detection and characterisation of all virus types including single and double stranded DNA/RNA and enveloped and non-enveloped viruses. Initial evaluation included both spiked and non-spiked bird faecal samples as well as non-spiked human faecal samples. From the non-spiked bird samples (Australian Muscovy duck and Pacific black ducks) we detected 21 viruses, and we also present a summary of a few viruses detected in human faecal samples. We then present a detailed analysis of selected virus sequences in the avian samples that were somewhat similar to known viruses, and had good quality (Q20 or higher) and quantity of next-generation sequencing reads, and was of interest from a virological point of view, for example, avian coronavirus and avian paramyxovirus 6. Some of these viruses were closely related to known viruses while others were more distantly related with 70% or less identity to currently known/sequenced viruses. Besides detecting viruses, the technique also allowed the characterisation of host mitochondrial DNA present and thus identifying host species, while ribosomal RNA sequences provided insight into the “ribosomal activity microbiome”; of gut parasites; and of food eaten such as plants or insects, which we correlated to non-avian host associated viruses.

negative: Practical Strategies Against the Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19—the Imminent Global Threat The last month of 2019 harbingered the emergence of a viral outbreak that is now a major public threat globally. COVID-19 was first diagnosed and confirmed in a couple of cases with unknown pneumonia; the patients lived in, or travelled to, Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province. People now face a complex challenge that deserves urgent intervention by all involved in medical healthcare globally. Conventional antiviral therapies or vaccines are the most referred means of tackling the virus, but we think establishing these ideal management strategies is presently far-fetched. In-house isolation or quarantine of suspected cases to keep hospital admissions manageable and prevent in-hospital spread of the virus, and promoting general awareness about transmission routes are the practical strategies used to tackle the spread of COVID-19. Cases with weakened or compromised immune systems—for example, elderly individuals, young children, and those with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, cancer, hypertension, and chronic respiratory diseases—are particularly more susceptible to COVID-19. Hopefully, cumulative data using whole-genome sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 genome in parallel with mathematical modeling will help the molecular biologists to understand unknown features of the pathogenesis and epidemiology of COVID-19.

negative: Changes in Subway Ridership in Response to COVID-19 in Seoul, South Korea: Implications for Social Distancing Introduction While numerous episodes of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and subsequent government announcements in South Korea were accompanied by widespread social distancing efforts by the people, it is unclear whether these episodes and government announcements were actually influential in improving social distancing, or whether the level of response among different demographic groups varied. Methods Data were downloaded from Seoul Data Open Plaza, and changes in the number of passengers on the Seoul Metropolitan Subway network between January 1, 2020, and March 31, 2020, were used to assess the extent to which people in Seoul practiced social distancing. Five events regarding COVID-19 that received wide public attention between January and March 2020 were identified and the changes in the number of passengers before and after each event were analyzed. Also, similar analyses were performed for 16 stations that were specific in either the age or purpose of the visit of the passengers. Results Compared to the third week of January 2020 (January 13-19), the mean daily number of passengers in all stations decreased by 2,984,857.4 or 40.6% by the first week of March (March 2-8). The percentage decrease in individual stations between this period was not significantly different between “young” and “old” stations (46.3% vs. 49.2%; p = 0.551) but was significantly smaller in “work” stations than in “leisure” stations (36.2% vs. 51.6%; p = 0.021). Of the five events, the first reported death due to COVID-19 in South Korea and the identification of a mass infection cluster in Daegu on February 20 were accompanied by the greatest decrease of the mean daily number of passengers (1,352,153.3 or 20.8%), while the first mass infection in Seoul on March 10 and the announcement of aggressive social distancing campaign on March 22 were accompanied by an increase in the number of passengers. Conclusions The number of subway passengers in Seoul decreased markedly during late February but slowly increased afterward, suggesting decreasing levels of risk perception and adherence to social distancing. Understanding the differing patterns of subway use by age or purpose of the visit may guide policymakers and the general public in shaping their future response to the current pandemic.

negative: [The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China]. Objective: An outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China has spread quickly nationwide. Here, we report results of a descriptive, exploratory analysis of all cases diagnosed as of February 11, 2020. Methods: All COVID-19 cases reported through February 11, 2020 were extracted from China's Infectious Disease Information System. Analyses included: 1) summary of patient characteristics; 2) examination of age distributions and sex ratios; 3) calculation of case fatality and mortality rates; 4) geo-temporal analysis of viral spread; 5) epidemiological curve construction; and 6) subgroup analysis. Results: A total of 72 314 patient records-44 672 (61.8%) confirmed cases, 16 186 (22.4%) suspected cases, 10567 (14.6%) clinical diagnosed cases (Hubei only), and 889 asymptomatic cases (1.2%)-contributed data for the analysis. Among confirmed cases, most were aged 30-79 years (86.6%), diagnosed in Hubei (74.7%), and considered mild (80.9%). A total of 1 023 deaths occurred among confirmed cases for an overall case-fatality rate of 2.3%. The COVID-19 spread outward from Hubei sometime after December 2019 and by February 11, 2020, 1 386 counties across all 31 provinces were affected. The epidemic curve of onset of symptoms peaked in January 23-26, then began to decline leading up to February 11. A total of 1 716 health workers have become infected and 5 have died (0.3%). Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic has spread very quickly. It only took 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China. With many people returning from a long holiday, China needs to prepare for the possible rebound of the epidemic.

negative: Dynamics of translation by single ribosomes through mRNA secondary structures During protein synthesis, the ribosome translates nucleotide triplets in single-stranded mRNA into polypeptide sequences. Strong downstream mRNA secondary (2°) structures, which must be unfolded for translation, can slow or even halt protein synthesis. Here we employ single molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer to determine reaction rates for specific steps within the elongation cycle as the Escherichia coli ribosome encounters stem loop or pseudoknot mRNA 2° structures. Downstream stem-loops containing 100% G-C base pairs decrease the rates of both tRNA translocation within the ribosome and deacylated tRNA dissociation from the ribosomal exit (E) site. Downstream stem-loops or pseudoknots containing both G-C and A-U pairs also decrease the rate of tRNA dissociation, but they have little effect on tRNA translocation rate. Thus, somewhat surprisingly, unfolding of mRNA 2° structures is more closely coupled to E-site tRNA dissociation than to tRNA translocation.

negative: Identification and control are the priority.

negative: The Threat and Response to Infectious Diseases (Revised) The threat from microorganisms is complex, and the approaches for reducing the challenges the world is facing are also multifaceted, but a combination approach including several simple steps can make a difference and reduce morbidity and mortality and the economic cost of fighting infectious diseases. This paper discusses the continually evolving infectious disease landscape, contributing factors in the rise of the threat, reasons for optimism, and the policies, technologies, actions, and institutions that might be harnessed to further reduce the dangers introduced by pathogens. It builds upon and updates the work of other authors that have recognized the dangers of emerging and re-emerging pathogens and have explored and documented potential solutions.

negative: How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?

negative: A strange new world The new coronavirus may be upending our lives, but we aren't helpless against it

negative: Role of changes in SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the interaction with the human ACE2 receptor: An in silico analysis Many human viral diseases are a consequence of a zoonotic event. Some of the diseases caused by these zoonotic events have affected millions of people around the world, some of which have resulted in high rates of morbidity/mortality in humans. Changes in the viral proteins that function as ligands of the host receptor may promote the spillover between species. The most recent of these zoonotic events that have caused an ongoing epidemic of high magnitude is the Covid-19 epidemics caused by SARS-CoV-2. The aim of this study was to determine the mutation(s) in the sequence of the spike protein of the SARS-CoV-2 that might be favoring human to human transmission. An in silico approach was performed, and changes were detected in the S1 subunit of the receptor-binding domain of spike. The observed changes have significant effect on SARS-CoV-2 spike/ACE2 interaction and produce a reduction in the binding energy, compared to the one of the Bat-CoV to this receptor. The data presented in this study suggest a higher affinity of the SARS-Cov-2 spike protein to the human ACE2 receptor, compared to the one of Bat-CoV spike and ACE2. This could be the cause of the rapid viral spread of SARS-CoV-2 in humans.

negative: Transmission of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease and Its Potential Driving Factors in Hong Kong Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is a common childhood disease with substantial disease burden in Asia. Mixed results were reported on the associations between HFMD incidence and meteorological factors or school holidays, while limited studies focused on their association on transmissibility. We aimed to measure the transmissibility of HFMD and to examine its potential driving factors in Hong Kong. A likelihood-based procedure was used to estimate time-dependent effective reproduction number (R(t)) based on weekly number of HFMD-associated hospitalizations from 2010 to 2014. The associations of between-year effects, depletion of susceptibles, absolute humidity and school holidays with R(t) were examined using linear regression. R(t) usually started increasing between early spring and summer and peaked in April to May at around 1.1–1.2, followed by a slight rebound in autumn. Depletion of susceptibles and between-years effects explained most of the variances (19 and 13% respectively) in R(t). We found a negative association between depletion of susceptibles and R(t) (coefficients ranged from −0.14 to −0.03 for different years), but the estimated effects of absolute humidity and school holidays were insignificant. Overall, HFMD transmission was moderate in Hong Kong and was mainly associated with depletion of susceptibles. Limited impact was suggested from meteorological factors and school holidays.

negative: Zoonotic origins of human coronaviruses Mutation and adaptation have driven the co-evolution of coronaviruses (CoVs) and their hosts, including human beings, for thousands of years. Before 2003, two human CoVs (HCoVs) were known to cause mild illness, such as common cold. The outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) have flipped the coin to reveal how devastating and life-threatening an HCoV infection could be. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in central China at the end of 2019 has thrusted CoVs into the spotlight again and surprised us with its high transmissibility but reduced pathogenicity compared to its sister SARS-CoV. HCoV infection is a zoonosis and understanding the zoonotic origins of HCoVs would serve us well. Most HCoVs originated from bats where they are non-pathogenic. The intermediate reservoir hosts of some HCoVs are also known. Identifying the animal hosts has direct implications in the prevention of human diseases. Investigating CoV-host interactions in animals might also derive important insight on CoV pathogenesis in humans. In this review, we present an overview of the existing knowledge about the seven HCoVs, with a focus on the history of their discovery as well as their zoonotic origins and interspecies transmission. Importantly, we compare and contrast the different HCoVs from a perspective of virus evolution and genome recombination. The current CoV disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic is discussed in this context. In addition, the requirements for successful host switches and the implications of virus evolution on disease severity are also highlighted.

negative: COVID-19 in Colombia endpoints. Are we different, like Europe? Abstract The infection by the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has taken the dimension of a pandemic, affecting more than 160 countries in a few weeks. In Colombia, despite the implementation of the rules established by the national government, exists an elevate concern both for mortality and for the limited capacity of the health system to respond effectively to the needs of patients infected. For Colombia, assuming a case fatality rate among people infected with SARS-CoV-2 of 0.6% (average data from the information reported for Latin American countries for March 18) (Table 1), the number of deaths, in one or two weeks, could be 16 and 243, respectively. These estimates differ markedly from those documented in countries such as Spain and Italy, in which COVID-19 case fatality rates exceed 8% (case of Italy) and from the percentage of patients who have required intensive care, which has ranged from 9% to 11% of patients in Mediterranean European countries. These differences could be explained due to: a) the percentage of the population at risk (individuals older than 60 years); b) a higher epidemiological exposure to viral respiratory infections associated with more frequent exposure to them, due to geographic and climatic conditions; c) less spread of the virus by location in the tropical zone; and d) earlier preventive measures to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Therefore, it is possible to establish that the situation in this country will be different from in European Mediterranean and that Colombia could have different endpoints from Spain and Italy.

negative: A rapid immunochromatographic test strip for detecting rabies virus antibody Abstract An immunochromatographic test strip (ICTS) for detecting antibodies to rabies virus was developed, using colloidal gold particles labeled with rabies virus glycoprotein as the tracer. The assay was evaluated using sera from dogs immunized with various commercial rabies vaccines, or from dogs in the clinics and sera from dogs immunized with vaccines against pathogens other than rabies virus, and negative sera from a wide variety of animal sources, including dogs, mice, and cats which had never been vaccinated. The ICTS was found to be highly specific for antibodies against rabies virus, with a detection limit of 0.5IU/ml as measured by the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization (FAVN) test. Compared with the FAVN test, the specificity and sensitivity of ICTS were 98.2% and 90.4%, respectively. There was an excellent agreement between results obtained by the ICTS and FAVN tests (kappa=0.888). Strips stored at 4°C in a plastic bag with a desiccant retained their specificity and sensitivity for at least 15 months, and strips stored at ambient temperature remained stable for 12 months. The immunochromatographic test strip may therefore be useful for clinical laboratories lacking specialized equipment and for diagnosis in the field for rapid detection of rabies virus-specific antibodies.

negative: Emerging infectious diseases: Focus on infection control issues for novel coronaviruses (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoV and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome-CoV), hemorrhagic fever viruses (Lassa and Ebola), and highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) Over the past several decades, we have witnessed the emergence of many new infectious agents, some of which are major public threats. New and emerging infectious diseases which are both transmissible from patient-to-patient and virulent with a high mortality include novel coronaviruses (SARS-CoV, MERS-CV), hemorrhagic fever viruses (Lassa, Ebola), and highly pathogenic avian influenza A viruses, A(H5N1) and A(H7N9). All healthcare facilities need to have policies and plans in place for early identification of patients with a highly communicable diseases which are highly virulent, ability to immediately isolate such patients, and provide proper management (e.g., training and availability of personal protective equipment) to prevent transmission to healthcare personnel, other patients and visitors to the healthcare facility.

negative: Nested and teleconnected vulnerabilities to environmental change The vulnerability of distant peoples and places to global change in environment and society is nested and teleconnected. Here, we argue that such vulnerabilities are linked through environmental change process feedbacks, economic market linkages, and flows of resources, people, and information. We illustrate these linkages through the examples of the global transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the interdependent vulnerabilities and adaptations of coffee farmers in Vietnam and Mexico. These cases demonstrate that the vulnerability of specific individuals and communities is not geographically bounded but, rather, is connected at different scales, so that the drivers of their exposure and sensitivity are inseparable from large‐scale processes of sociocultural change and market integration. Aggregate outcomes of government policies, trends in global commodity markets, and even decisions by individuals to improve livelihood security can have negative repercussions, not only locally, through transformations of ecological systems and social relations, but also at larger scales.

negative: Monitoring behavioural insights related to COVID-19

negative: Proteome Profile of Swine Testicular Cells Infected with Porcine Transmissible Gastroenteritis Coronavirus The interactions occurring between a virus and a host cell during a viral infection are complex. The purpose of this paper was to analyze altered cellular protein levels in porcine transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus (TGEV)-infected swine testicular (ST) cells in order to determine potential virus-host interactions. A proteomic approach using isobaric tags for relative and absolute quantitation (iTRAQ)-coupled two-dimensional liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry identification was conducted on the TGEV-infected ST cells. The results showed that the 4-plex iTRAQ-based quantitative approach identified 4,112 proteins, 146 of which showed significant changes in expression 48 h after infection. At 64 h post infection, 219 of these proteins showed significant change, further indicating that a larger number of proteomic changes appear to occur during the later stages of infection. Gene ontology analysis of the altered proteins showed enrichment in multiple biological processes, including cell adhesion, response to stress, generation of precursor metabolites and energy, cell motility, protein complex assembly, growth, developmental maturation, immune system process, extracellular matrix organization, locomotion, cell-cell signaling, neurological system process, and cell junction organization. Changes in the expression levels of transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGF-β1), caspase-8, and heat shock protein 90 alpha (HSP90α) were also verified by western blot analysis. To our knowledge, this study is the first time the response profile of ST host cells following TGEV infection has been analyzed using iTRAQ technology, and our description of the late proteomic changes that are occurring after the time of vigorous viral production are novel. Therefore, this study provides a solid foundation for further investigation, and will likely help us to better understand the mechanisms of TGEV infection and pathogenesis.

negative: Antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in patients of novel coronavirus disease 2019 Summary Background The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a newly emerging virus. The antibody response in infected patient remains largely unknown, and the clinical values of antibody testing have not been fully demonstrated. Methods A total of 173 patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were enrolled. Their serial plasma samples (n = 535) collected during the hospitalization period were tested for total antibodies (Ab), IgM and IgG against SARS-CoV-2 using immunoassays. The dynamics of antibodies with the progress and severity of disease was analyzed. Findings Among 173 patients, the seroconversion rate for Ab, IgM and IgG was 93.1% (161/173), 82.7% (143/173) and 64.7% (112/173), respectively. Twelve patients who had not seroconverted were those only blood samples at the early stage of illness were collected. The seroconversion sequentially appeared for Ab, IgM and then IgG, with a median time of 11, 12 and 14 days, respectively. The presence of antibodies was < 40% among patients in the first 7 days of illness, and then rapidly increased to 100.0%, 94.3% and 79.8% for Ab, IgM and IgG respectively since day 15 after onset. In contrast, the positive rate of RNA decreased from 66.7% (58/87) in samples collected before day 7 to 45.5% (25/55) during days 15 to 39. Combining RNA and antibody detections significantly improved the sensitivity of pathogenic diagnosis for COVID-19 patients (p < 0.001), even in early phase of 1-week since onset (p = 0.007). Moreover, a higher titer of Ab was independently associated with a worse clinical classification (p = 0.006). Interpretation The antibody detection offers vital clinical information during the course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The findings provide strong empirical support for the routine application of serological testing in the diagnosis and management of COVID-19 patients.

negative: COVID-19 outbreak: less stethoscope, more ultrasound

negative: Burden and prevalence of prognostic factors for severe covid-19 disease in Sweden Objectives: Describe the burden and prevalence of prognostic factors of severe COVID-19 disease at national and county level in Sweden. Design: Cross sectional study Setting: Sweden Participants: 9,624,428 individuals living in Sweden on 31st December 2014 and alive on 1st January 2016 Main outcome measures: Burden and prevalence of prognostic factors for severe COVID-19 based on the guidelines from the World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which are age 70 years and older, cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, severe asthma, and diabetes. Prognostic factors were identified based on records for three years before 1st January 2016 from the Swedish National Inpatient and Outpatient Specialist Care Register, Prescribed Drug Register, and Cancer Register. Results: 22.1% of the study population had at least one prognostic factor for severe COVID-19 (2,131,319 individuals), and 1.6% had at least three factors (154,746 individuals). The prevalence of underlying medical conditions in the whole study population ranged from 0.8% with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (78,516 individuals) to 7.4% with cardiovascular disease (708,090 individuals), and the county specific prevalence of at least one prognostic factor ranged from 19.2% in Stockholm (416,988 individuals) to 25.9% in Kalmar (60,005 individuals). Conclusions: The prevalence of prognostic factors for severe COVID-19 disease will aid authorities in optimally planning healthcare resources during the ongoing pandemic. Results can also be applied to underlying assumptions of disease burden in modelling efforts to support COVID-19 planning. This information is crucial when deciding appropriate strategies to mitigate the pandemic and reduce both the direct mortality burden from the disease itself, and the indirect mortality burden from potentially overwhelmed health systems.

negative: Scientists fear coronavirus spread in countries least able to contain it.

negative: Potential fecal transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Current evidence and implications for public health Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Hubei Province, China in December 2019 and has since become a global pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of cases and over 165 countries affected. Primary routes of transmission of the causative virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), are through respiratory droplets and close person-to-person contact. While information about other potential modes of transmission are relatively sparse, evidence supporting the possibility of a fecally mediated mode of transmission has been accumulating. Here, current knowledge on the potential for fecal transmission is briefly reviewed and the possible implications are discussed from a public health perspective.

negative: Forum: Technology, Ecology, and Human Health Since 1850

negative: Clinical presentations and outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infected pneumonia in pregnant women and health status of their neonates

negative: Weather-Dependent Risk for Legionnaires’ Disease, United States Using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and US weather data, we estimated the probability of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) being diagnosed as Legionnaires’ disease (LD). LD risk increases when weather is warm and humid. With warm weather, we found a dose-response relationship between relative humidity and the odds for LD. When the mean temperature was 60°–80°F with high humidity (>80.0%), the odds for CAP being diagnosed with LD were 3.1 times higher than with lower levels of humidity (<50.0%). Thus, in some regions (e.g., the Southwest), LD is rarely the cause of hospitalizations. In other regions and seasons (e.g., the mid-Atlantic in summer), LD is much more common. Thus, suspicion for LD should increase when weather is warm and humid. However, when weather is cold, dry, or extremely hot, empirically treating all CAP patients for LD might contribute to excessive antimicrobial drug use at a population level.

negative: “Your Health Essential for Your Hajj”: Muslim pilgrims' knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) during Hajj season Abstract Background Up to date, there have been no studies to evaluate pilgrims' knowledge, attitude and practices regarding MERS-CoV during the annual Hajj pilgrimage in order to see whether there is a need for these aspects to be improved. Methods A cross-sectional survey study was conducted with a convenience sampling. Participants were pilgrims, aged over 18, and able to speak Arabic or English. A self-administered structured questionnaire was distributed during Hajj season in Mecca. Descriptive and multiple linear regression analysis were used in data analysis. Results Two hundred and fifty-seven participants completed the study, 80% of whom were female, and the median (IQR) age was 35 (24.5–43.5) years. Pilgrims had moderately correct knowledge and accurate attitudes about MERS-CoV with median scores of 5 (IQR 4–7) and 6 (IQR: 5–7) respectively. Educational level and employment status were significantly associated with knowledge whereas gender and age were significantly associated with attitude and practices respectively (P < 0.05). The correlation between knowledge, attitude and practices was significant (correlation coefficient: 0.207; P < 0.05). Better knowledge was found to be a predictor for positive practice. Conclusions These findings will provide insight when designing future interventions to promote specific messages to enhance knowledge, change attitude and improve practice regarding MERS-CoV.

negative: Forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in Top 15 countries in April 2020: ARIMA Model with Machine Learning Approach We here predicted some trajectories of COVID-19 in the coming days (until April 30, 2020) using the most advanced Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA). Our analysis predicted very frightening outcomes, which defines to worsen the conditions in Iran, entire Europe, especially Italy, Spain, and France. While South Korea, after the initial blast, has come to stability, the same goes for the COVID-19 origin country China with more positive recovery cases and confirm to remain stable. The United States of America (USA) will come as a surprise and going to become the epicenter for new cases during the mid-April 2020. Based on our predictions, public health officials should tailor aggressive interventions to grasp the power exponential growth, and rapid infection control measures at hospital levels are urgently needed to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: The utility of LASSO-based models for real time forecasts of endemic infectious diseases: A cross country comparison Abstract Introduction Accurate and timely prediction for endemic infectious diseases is vital for public health agencies to plan and carry out any control methods at an early stage of disease outbreaks. Climatic variables has been identified as important predictors in models for infectious disease forecasts. Various approaches have been proposed in the literature to produce accurate and timely predictions and potentially improve public health response. Methods We assessed how the machine learning LASSO method may be useful in providing useful forecasts for different pathogens in countries with different climates. Separate LASSO models were constructed for different disease/country/forecast window with different model complexity by including different sets of predictors to assess the importance of different predictors under various conditions. Results There was a more apparent cyclicity for both climatic variables and incidence in regions further away from the equator. For most diseases, predictions made beyond 4 weeks ahead were increasingly discrepant from the actual scenario. Prediction models were more accurate in capturing the outbreak but less sensitive to predict the outbreak size. In different situations, climatic variables have different levels of importance in prediction accuracy. Conclusions For LASSO models used for prediction, including different sets of predictors has varying effect in different situations. Short term predictions generally perform better than longer term predictions, suggesting public health agencies may need the capacity to respond at short-notice to early warnings.

negative: Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand Abstract This paper assesses the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks and its after-effects on U.S. airline demand. Using monthly time-series data from 1986 to 2003, we find that September 11 resulted in both a negative transitory shock of over 30% and an ongoing negative demand shock amounting to roughly 7.4% of pre-September 11 demand. This ongoing demand shock has yet to dissipate (as of November 2003) and cannot be explained by economic, seasonal, or other factors.

negative: Integrated urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental services: Concept, methodology and key messages Abstract Integrated Urban hydrometeorological, climate and environmental Services (IUS) is a WMO initiative to aid development of science-based services to support safe, healthy, resilient and climate friendly cities. Guidance for Integrated Urban Hydrometeorological, Climate and Environmental Services (Volume I) has been developed with the intent to provide an overview of the concept, methods and good practices for producing and providing these services to respond to the hazards across a range of time scales (weather to climate). This involves combining (dense) heterogeneous observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems and climate services to assist cities in setting and implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies for the management and building of resilient and sustainable cities. IUS include research, evaluation and delivery with a wide participation from city governments, national hydrometeorological services, international organizations, universities, research institutions and private sector stakeholders. An overview of the IUS concept with key messages, examples of good practice and recommendations are provided. The research community will play an important role to: identify critical research challenges; provide impact forecasts and warnings; develop and deliver IUS internationally, and; support national and local communities in the implementation of IUS thereby contributing to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals at all scales.

negative: [Management and clinical thinking of Coronavirus Disease 2019] In December 2019, the 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP, officially named Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) by the World Health Organization) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei, and it quickly spread to the whole country and abroad. The situation was at stake. The sudden and serious COVID-19 epidemic has brought us a lot of urgent problems. How to effectively control the spread of COVID-19? When does the population infection rate rise to its peak? What will eventually be the number of infected patients? How to make early diagnosis? What effective antiviral drugs are available? How to effectively treat with existing drugs? Can it successfully improve the survival rate of critically patients? In response to the above questions, we put forward corresponding suggestions and reflections from the perspective of the infectious clinician.

negative: Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science—Exposures in an Evolving Environment—brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct “consequential science”—doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health.

negative: International Society for Disease Surveillance Conference 2011: Building the Future of Public Health Surveillance: Building the Future of Public Health Surveillance

negative: Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding BACKGROUND: In late December, 2019, patients presenting with viral pneumonia due to an unidentified microbial agent were reported in Wuhan, China. A novel coronavirus was subsequently identified as the causative pathogen, provisionally named 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). As of Jan 26, 2020, more than 2000 cases of 2019-nCoV infection have been confirmed, most of which involved people living in or visiting Wuhan, and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed. METHODS: We did next-generation sequencing of samples from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and cultured isolates from nine inpatients, eight of whom had visited the Huanan seafood market in Wuhan. Complete and partial 2019-nCoV genome sequences were obtained from these individuals. Viral contigs were connected using Sanger sequencing to obtain the full-length genomes, with the terminal regions determined by rapid amplification of cDNA ends. Phylogenetic analysis of these 2019-nCoV genomes and those of other coronaviruses was used to determine the evolutionary history of the virus and help infer its likely origin. Homology modelling was done to explore the likely receptor-binding properties of the virus. FINDINGS: The ten genome sequences of 2019-nCoV obtained from the nine patients were extremely similar, exhibiting more than 99·98% sequence identity. Notably, 2019-nCoV was closely related (with 88% identity) to two bat-derived severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronaviruses, bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, collected in 2018 in Zhoushan, eastern China, but were more distant from SARS-CoV (about 79%) and MERS-CoV (about 50%). Phylogenetic analysis revealed that 2019-nCoV fell within the subgenus Sarbecovirus of the genus Betacoronavirus, with a relatively long branch length to its closest relatives bat-SL-CoVZC45 and bat-SL-CoVZXC21, and was genetically distinct from SARS-CoV. Notably, homology modelling revealed that 2019-nCoV had a similar receptor-binding domain structure to that of SARS-CoV, despite amino acid variation at some key residues. INTERPRETATION: 2019-nCoV is sufficiently divergent from SARS-CoV to be considered a new human-infecting betacoronavirus. Although our phylogenetic analysis suggests that bats might be the original host of this virus, an animal sold at the seafood market in Wuhan might represent an intermediate host facilitating the emergence of the virus in humans. Importantly, structural analysis suggests that 2019-nCoV might be able to bind to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor in humans. The future evolution, adaptation, and spread of this virus warrant urgent investigation. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China, National Major Project for Control and Prevention of Infectious Disease in China, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shandong First Medical University.

negative: Evidence of the COVID-19 Virus Targeting the CNS: Tissue Distribution, Host–Virus Interaction, and Proposed Neurotropic Mechanisms [Image: see text] The recent outbreak of coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) has gripped the world with apprehension and has evoked a scare of epic proportion regarding its potential to spread and infect humans worldwide. As we are in the midst of an ongoing pandemic of COVID-19, scientists are struggling to understand how it resembles and differs from the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) at the genomic and transcriptomic level. In a short time following the outbreak, it has been shown that, similar to SARS-CoV, COVID-19 virus exploits the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor to gain entry inside the cells. This finding raises the curiosity of investigating the expression of ACE2 in neurological tissue and determining the possible contribution of neurological tissue damage to the morbidity and mortality caused by COIVD-19. Here, we investigate the density of the expression levels of ACE2 in the CNS, the host–virus interaction and relate it to the pathogenesis and complications seen in the recent cases resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. Also, we debate the need for a model for staging COVID-19 based on neurological tissue involvement.

negative: The different clinical characteristics of corona virus disease cases between children and their families in China – the character of children with COVID-19 This study aims to analyze the different clinical characteristics between children and their families infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Clinical data from nine children and their 14 families were collected, including general status, clinical, laboratory test, and imaging characteristics. All the children were detected positive result after their families onset. Three children had fever (22.2%) or cough (11.2%) symptoms and six (66.7%) children had no symptom. Among the 14 adult patients, the major symptoms included fever (57.1%), cough (35.7%), chest tightness/pain (21.4%), fatigue (21.4%) and sore throat (7.1%). Nearly 70% of the patients had normal (71.4%) or decreased (28.6%) white blood cell counts, and 50% (7/14) had lymphocytopenia. There were 10 adults (71.4%) showed abnormal imaging. The main manifestations were pulmonary consolidation (70%), nodular shadow (50%), and ground glass opacity (50%). Five discharged children were admitted again because their stool showed positive result in SARS-CoV-2 PCR. COVID-19 in children is mainly caused by family transmission, and their symptoms are mild and prognosis is better than adult. However, their PCR result in stool showed longer time than their families. Because of the mild or asymptomatic clinical process, it is difficult to recognize early for pediatrician and public health staff.

negative: Do we know when to end isolation of persons affected with COVID-19?

negative: Data–model fusion to better understand emerging pathogens and improve infectious disease forecasting Ecologists worldwide are challenged to contribute solutions to urgent and pressing environmental problems by forecasting how populations, communities, and ecosystems will respond to global change. Rising to this challenge requires organizing ecological information derived from diverse sources and formally assimilating data with models of ecological processes. The study of infectious disease has depended on strategies for integrating patterns of observed disease incidence with mechanistic process models since John Snow first mapped cholera cases around a London water pump in 1854. Still, zoonotic and vector‐borne diseases increasingly affect human populations, and methods used to successfully characterize directly transmitted diseases are often insufficient. We use four case studies to demonstrate that advances in disease forecasting require better understanding of zoonotic host and vector populations, as well of the dynamics that facilitate pathogen amplification and disease spillover into humans. In each case study, this goal is complicated by limited data, spatiotemporal variability in pathogen transmission and impact, and often, insufficient biological understanding. We present a conceptual framework for data–model fusion in infectious disease research that addresses these fundamental challenges using a hierarchical state‐space structure to (1) integrate multiple data sources and spatial scales to inform latent parameters, (2) partition uncertainty in process and observation models, and (3) explicitly build upon existing ecological and epidemiological understanding. Given the constraints inherent in the study of infectious disease and the urgent need for progress, fusion of data and expertise via this type of conceptual framework should prove an indispensable tool.

negative: Modeling [(18)F]-FDG lymphoid tissue kinetics to characterize nonhuman primate immune response to Middle East respiratory syndrome-coronavirus aerosol challenge BACKGROUND: The pathogenesis and immune response to Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) caused by a recently discovered coronavirus, MERS-CoV, have not been fully characterized because a suitable animal model is currently not available. (18)F-Fluorodeoxyglucose ([(18)F]-FDG)-positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) as a longitudinal noninvasive approach can be beneficial in providing biomarkers for host immune response. [(18)F]-FDG uptake is increased in activated immune cells in response to virus entry and can be localized by PET imaging. We used [(18)F]-FDG-PET/CT to investigate the host response developing in nonhuman primates after MERS-CoV exposure and applied kinetic modeling to monitor the influx rate constant (K(i)) in responsive lymphoid tissue. METHODS: Multiple [(18)F]-FDG-PET and CT images were acquired on a PET/CT clinical scanner modified to operate in a biosafety level 4 environment prior to and up to 29 days after MERS-CoV aerosol exposure. Time activity curves of various lymphoid tissues were reconstructed to follow the [(18)F]-FDG uptake for approximately 60 min (3,600 s). Image-derived input function was used to calculate K(i) for lymphoid tissues by Patlak plot. RESULTS: Two-way repeated measures analysis of variance revealed alterations in K(i) that was associated with the time point (p < 0.001) after virus exposure and the location of lymphoid tissue (p = 0.0004). As revealed by a statistically significant interaction (p < 0.0001) between these two factors, the pattern of K(i) changes over time differed between three locations but not between subjects. A distinguished pattern of statistically significant elevation in K(i) was observed in mediastinal lymph nodes (LNs) that correlated to K(i) changes in axillary LNs. Changes in LNs K(i) were concurrent with elevations of monocytes in peripheral blood. CONCLUSIONS: [(18)F]-FDG-PET is able to detect subtle changes in host immune response to contain a subclinical virus infection. Full quantitative analysis is the preferred approach rather than semiquantitative analysis using standardized uptake value for detection of the immune response to the virus. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13550-015-0143-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Type 2 and interferon inflammation strongly regulate SARS-CoV-2 related gene expression in the airway epithelium Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes vary from asymptomatic infection to death. This disparity may reflect different airway levels of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor, ACE2, and the spike protein activator, TMPRSS2. Here we explore the role of genetics and co-expression networks in regulating these genes in the airway, through the analysis of nasal airway transcriptome data from 695 children. We identify expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) for both ACE2 and TMPRSS2, that vary in frequency across world populations. Importantly, we find TMPRSS2 is part of a mucus secretory network, highly upregulated by T2 inflammation through the action of interleukin-13, and that interferon response to respiratory viruses highly upregulates ACE2 expression. Finally, we define airway responses to coronavirus infections in children, finding that these infections upregulate IL6 while also stimulating a more pronounced cytotoxic immune response relative to other respiratory viruses. Our results reveal mechanisms likely influencing SARS-CoV-2 infectivity and COVID-19 clinical outcomes.

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic's impact on U.S. electricity demand and supply: an early view from the data After the onset of the recent COVID-19 pandemic, a number of studies reported on possible changes in electricity consumption trends. The overall theme of these reports was that ``electricity use has decreased during the pandemic, but the power grid is still reliable''---mostly due to reduced economic activity. In this paper we analyze electricity data upto end of May 2020, examining both electricity demand and variables that can indicate stress on the power grid, such as peak demand and demand ramp-rate. We limit this study to three states in the USA: New York, California, and Florida. The results indicate that the effect of the pandemic on electricity demand is not a simple reduction from comparable time frames, and there are noticeable differences among regions. The variables that can indicate stress on the grid also conveyed mixed messages: some indicate an increase in stress, some indicate a decrease, and some do not indicate any clear difference. A positive message is that some of the changes that were observed around the time stay-at-home orders were issued appeared to revert back by May 2020. A key challenge in ascribing any observed change to the pandemic is correcting for weather. We provide a weather-correction method, apply it to a small city-wide area, and discuss the implications of the estimated changes in demand. The weather correction exercise underscored that weather-correction is as challenging as it is important.

negative: Transcriptomics of In Vitro Immune-Stimulated Hemocytes from the Manila Clam Ruditapes philippinarum Using High-Throughput Sequencing BACKGROUND: The Manila clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) is a worldwide cultured bivalve species with important commercial value. Diseases affecting this species can result in large economic losses. Because knowledge of the molecular mechanisms of the immune response in bivalves, especially clams, is scarce and fragmentary, we sequenced RNA from immune-stimulated R. philippinarum hemocytes by 454-pyrosequencing to identify genes involved in their immune defense against infectious diseases. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: High-throughput deep sequencing of R. philippinarum using 454 pyrosequencing technology yielded 974,976 high-quality reads with an average read length of 250 bp. The reads were assembled into 51,265 contigs and the 44.7% of the translated nucleotide sequences into protein were annotated successfully. The 35 most frequently found contigs included a large number of immune-related genes, and a more detailed analysis showed the presence of putative members of several immune pathways and processes like the apoptosis, the toll like signaling pathway and the complement cascade. We have found sequences from molecules never described in bivalves before, especially in the complement pathway where almost all the components are present. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the first transcriptome analysis using 454-pyrosequencing conducted on R. philippinarum focused on its immune system. Our results will provide a rich source of data to discover and identify new genes, which will serve as a basis for microarray construction and the study of gene expression as well as for the identification of genetic markers. The discovery of new immune sequences was very productive and resulted in a large variety of contigs that may play a role in the defense mechanisms of Ruditapes philippinarum.

negative: Interrelationship between Climatic, Ecologic, Social, and Cultural Determinants Affecting Dengue Emergence and Transmission in Puerto Rico and Their Implications for Zika Response OBJECTIVE: The global resurgence of dengue has been attributed to rapid population growth, urban expansion, increased air travel, globalization, and climate change. Dengue is now endemic in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is at risk for Zika, another emerging arbovirus. The interrelationship between climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors that affect dengue and other arboviruses' transmission is understudied. DESIGN: The objective of this systematic review is to examine the interrelationship between climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors on dengue transmission in Puerto Rico and to draw lessons for Zika response. RESULTS: A comprehensive search of peer-reviewed journal articles was performed, producing 562 articles; 26 were selected for this review. Findings indicate that human activities and behaviors (urbanization, migration, and consumption) as well as climate have a significant impact on the abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti, the vector for dengue, Zika, and other viruses. CONCLUSION: Despite the public health burden of dengue limited investments have been made in research and surveillance. Future research is needed to develop models that integrate the multivariate effects of climatic, ecological, social, and cultural factors, which for Puerto Rico have mostly been examined independently. Such models have the potential to inform response to dengue, Zika, and other arboviruses.

negative: Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA) at Metropolitan-Scale for Agile Transportation Planning Abrupt changes in the environment, such as increasingly frequent and intense weather events due to climate change or the extreme disruption caused by the coronavirus pandemic, have triggered massive and precipitous human mobility changes. The ability to quickly predict traffic patterns in different scenarios has become more urgent to support short-term operations and long-term transportation planning, emergency management, and resource allocation. Urban traffic exhibits a high spatial correlation in which links adjacent to a congested link are likely to become congested due to spillback effects. The spillback behavior requires modeling the entire metropolitan area to recognize all of the upstream and downstream effects from intentional or unintentional perturbations to the network. However, there is a well-known trade-off between increasing the level of detail of a model and decreasing computational performance. This paper addresses these performance shortcomings by introducing a new platform MANTA for traffic microsimulation at the metropolitan-scale. MANTA employs a highly parallelized GPU implementation that is fast enough to run simulations on large-scale demand and networks within a few minutes. We test our platform to simulate the entire Bay Area metropolitan region over the course of the morning using half-second time steps. The runtime for the nine-county Bay Area simulation is just over four minutes, not including routing and initialization. This computational performance significantly improves state of the art in large-scale traffic microsimulation and offers new capacity for analyzing the detailed travel patterns and travel choices of individuals for infrastructure planning and emergency management.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 and viral sepsis: observations and hypotheses Summary Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), clinicians have tried every effort to understand the disease, and a brief portrait of its clinical features have been identified. In clinical practice, we noticed that many severe or critically ill COVID-19 patients developed typical clinical manifestations of shock, including cold extremities and weak peripheral pulses, even in the absence of overt hypotension. Understanding the mechanism of viral sepsis in COVID-19 is warranted for exploring better clinical care for these patients. With evidence collected from autopsy studies on COVID-19 and basic science research on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and SARS-CoV, we have put forward several hypotheses about SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis after multiple rounds of discussion among basic science researchers, pathologists, and clinicians working on COVID-19. We hypothesise that a process called viral sepsis is crucial to the disease mechanism of COVID-19. Although these ideas might be proven imperfect or even wrong later, we believe they can provide inputs and guide directions for basic research at this moment.

negative: Decontamination of Bacillus subtilis var. niger spores on selected surfaces by chlorine dioxide gas. OBJECTIVE Chlorine dioxide (CD) gas has been used as a fumigant in the disinfection of biosafety laboratories. In this study, some experiments were conducted to assess the inactivation of spores inoculated on six materials [stainless steel (SS), painted steel (PS), polyvinyl chlorid (PVC), polyurethane (PU), glass (GS), and cotton cloth (CC)] by CD gas. The main aims of the study were to determine the sporicidal efficacy of CD gas and the effect of prehumidification before decontamination on sporicidal efficacy. METHODS Material coupons (1.2 cm diameter of SS, PS, and PU; 1.0 cm×1.0 cm for PVC, GS, and CC) were contaminated with 10 μl of Bacillus subtilis var. niger (ATCC 9372) spore suspension in mixed organic burden and then dried in a biosafety cabinet for 12 h. The spores were recovered by soaking the coupons in 5 ml of extraction liquid for 1 h and then vortexing the liquid for 1 min. RESULTS The log reductions in spore numbers on inoculated test materials exposed to CD gas [0.080% (volume ratio, v/v) for 3 h] were in the range of from 1.80 to 6.64. Statistically significant differences were found in decontamination efficacies on test material coupons of SS, PS, PU, and CC between with and without a 1-h prehumidification treatment. With the extraction method, there were no statistically significant differences in the recovery ratios between the porous and non-porous materials. CONCLUSIONS The results reported from this study could provide information for developing decontamination technology based on CD gas for targeting surface microbial contamination.

negative: Estimation of Time-Dependent Reproduction Numbers for Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome across Different Regions and Production Systems of the US Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is, arguably, the most impactful disease for the North American swine industry, due to its known considerable economic losses. The Swine Health Monitoring Project (SHMP) monitors and reports weekly new PRRS cases in 766 sow herds across the US. The time-dependent reproduction number (TD-R) is a measure of a pathogen’s transmissibility. It may serve to capture and report PRRS virus (PRRSV) spread at the regional and system levels. The primary objective of the study here was to estimate the TD-R values for PRRSV using regional and system-level PRRS data, and to contrast it with commonly used metrics of disease, such as incidence estimates and space–time clusters. The second objective was to test whether the estimated TD-Rs were homogenous across four US regions. Retrospective monthly incidence data (2009–2016) were available from the SHMP. The dataset was divided into four regions based on location of participants, and demographic and environmental features, namely, South East (North Carolina), Upper Midwest East (UME, Minnesota/Iowa), Upper Midwest West (Nebraska/South Dakota), and South (Oklahoma panhandle). Generation time distributions were fit to incidence data for each region, and used to calculate the TD-Rs. The Kruskal–Wallis test was used to determine whether the median TD-Rs differed across the four areas. Furthermore, we used a space–time permutation model to assess spatial–temporal patterns for the four regions. Results showed TD-Rs were right skewed with median values close to “1” across all regions, confirming that PRRS has an overall endemic nature. Variation in the TD-R patterns was noted across regions and production systems. Statistically significant periods of PRRSV spread (TD-R > 1) were identified for all regions except UME. A minimum of three space–time clusters were detected for all regions considering the time period examined herein; and their overlap with “spreader events” identified by the TD-R method varied according to region. TD-Rs may help to measure PRRS spread to understand, in quantitative terms, disease spread, and, ultimately, support the design, implementation, and monitoring of interventions aimed at mitigating the impact of PRRSV spread in the US.

negative: Coronavirus-induced ER stress response and its involvement in regulation of coronavirus–host interactions Abstract Coronavirus replication is structurally and functionally associated with the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), a major site of protein synthesis, folding, modification and sorting in the eukaryotic cells. Disturbance of ER homeostasis may occur under various physiological or pathological conditions. In response to the ER stress, signaling pathways of the unfolded protein response (UPR) are activated. UPR is mediated by three ER transmembrane sensors, namely the PKR-like ER protein kinase (PERK), the inositol-requiring protein 1 (IRE1) and the activating transcriptional factor 6 (ATF6). UPR facilitates adaptation to ER stress by reversible translation attenuation, enhancement of ER protein folding capacity and activation of ER-associated degradation (ERAD). In cells under prolonged and irremediable ER stress, UPR can also trigger apoptotic cell death. Accumulating evidence has shown that coronavirus infection causes ER stress and induces UPR in the infected cells. UPR is closely associated with a number of major signaling pathways, including autophagy, apoptosis, the mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase pathways, innate immunity and pro-inflammatory response. Therefore, studies on the UPR are pivotal in elucidating the complicated issue of coronavirus-host interaction. In this paper, we present the up-to-date knowledge on coronavirus-induced UPR and discuss its potential involvement in regulation of innate immunity and apoptosis.

negative: The origin, transmission and clinical therapies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak – an update on the status An acute respiratory disease, caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV), the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread throughout China and received worldwide attention. On 30 January 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the COVID-19 epidemic as a public health emergency of international concern. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2, since the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in 2002 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012, marked the third introduction of a highly pathogenic and large-scale epidemic coronavirus into the human population in the twenty-first century. As of 1 March 2020, a total of 87,137 confirmed cases globally, 79,968 confirmed in China and 7169 outside of China, with 2977 deaths (3.4%) had been reported by WHO. Meanwhile, several independent research groups have identified that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to β-coronavirus, with highly identical genome to bat coronavirus, pointing to bat as the natural host. The novel coronavirus uses the same receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) as that for SARS-CoV, and mainly spreads through the respiratory tract. Importantly, increasingly evidence showed sustained human-to-human transmission, along with many exported cases across the globe. The clinical symptoms of COVID-19 patients include fever, cough, fatigue and a small population of patients appeared gastrointestinal infection symptoms. The elderly and people with underlying diseases are susceptible to infection and prone to serious outcomes, which may be associated with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and cytokine storm. Currently, there are few specific antiviral strategies, but several potent candidates of antivirals and repurposed drugs are under urgent investigation. In this review, we summarized the latest research progress of the epidemiology, pathogenesis, and clinical characteristics of COVID-19, and discussed the current treatment and scientific advancements to combat the epidemic novel coronavirus.

negative: Protein structure analysis of the interactions between SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the human ACE2 receptor: from conformational changes to novel neutralizing antibodies The recent severe acute respiratory syndrome, known as Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread so much rapidly and severely to induce World Health Organization (WHO) to declare state of emergency over the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. While several countries have chosen the almost complete lock-down for slowing down SARS-CoV-2 spread, scientific community is called to respond to the devastating outbreak by identifying new tools for diagnosis and treatment of the dangerous COVID-19. With this aim we performed an in silico comparative modeling analysis, which allows to gain new insights about the main conformational changes occurring in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, at the level of the receptor binding domain (RBD), along interactions with human cells angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor, that favour human cell invasion. Furthermore, our analysis provides i) an ideal pipeline to identify already characterized antibodies that might target SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD, for preventing interactions with the human ACE2, and ii) instructions for building new possible neutralizing antibodies, according to chemical/physical space restraints and complementary determining regions (CDR) mutagenesis of the identified existing antibodies. The proposed antibodies show in silico a high affinity for SARS-CoV-2 spike RBD and can be used as reference antibodies also for building new high affinity antibodies against present and future coronavirus able to invade human cells through interactions of their spike proteins with the human ACE2. More in general, our analysis provides indications for the set-up of the right biological molecular context for investigating spike RBD-ACE2 interactions for the development of new vaccines, diagnosis kits and other treatments based on the usage or the targeting of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.

negative: Evaluation of biosecurity measures to prevent indirect transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus BACKGROUND: The effectiveness of biosecurity methods to mitigate the transmission of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) via farm personnel or contaminated fomites is poorly understood. This study was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of biosecurity procedures directed at minimizing transmission via personnel following different biosecurity protocols using a controlled experimental setting. RESULTS: PEDV RNA was detected from rectal swabs of experimentally infected (INF) and sentinel pigs by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). Virus shedding in INF pigs peaked at 1 day post infection (dpi) and viral RNA levels remained elevated through 19 dpi. Sentinel pigs in the low biosecurity group (LB) became PEDV positive after the first movement of study personnel from the INF group. However, rectal swabs from pigs in the medium biosecurity (MB) and high biosecurity (HB) groups were negative during the 10 consecutive days of movements and remained negative through 24 days post movement (dpm) when the first trial was terminated. Viral RNA was detected at 1 dpm through 3 dpm from the personal protective equipment (PPE) of LB personnel. In addition, at 1 dpm, 2 hair/face swabs from MB personnel were positive; however, transmission of virus was not detected. All swabs of fomite from the HB study personnel were negative. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that indirect PEDV transmission through contaminated PPE occurs rapidly (within 24 h) under modeled conditions. Biosecurity procedures such as changing PPE, washing exposed skin areas, or taking a shower are recommended for pig production systems and appear to be an effective option for lowering the risk of PEDV transmission between groups of pigs.

negative: Chapter 7 Long-term virus evolution in nature Abstract Viruses spread to give rise to epidemics and pandemics, and some key parameters that include virus and host population numbers determine virus persistence or extinction in nature. Viruses evolve at different rates depending on the polymerase copying fidelity during genome replication and a number of environmental influences. Calculated rates of evolution in nature vary depending on the time interval between virus isolations. In particular, intrahost evolution is generally more rapid that interhost evolution, and several possible mechanisms for this difference are considered. The mechanisms by which the error-prone viruses evolve are very unlikely to render the operation of a molecular clock (constant rate of incorporation of mutations in the evolving genomes), although a clock is assumed in many calculations. Several computational tools permit the alignment of viral sequences and the establishment of phylogenetic relationships among viruses. The evolution of the virus in the form of dynamic mutant clouds in each infected individual, together with multiple environmental parameters renders the emergence and reemergence of viral pathogens an unpredictable event, another facet of biological complexity.

negative: Is the spread of COVID-19 across countries influenced by environmental, economic and social factors? The SARS-CoV-2 virus, emerged from Wuhan, China is spreading all over the world in an unprecedented manner, causing millions of infections and thousands of deaths. However, the spread of the disease across countries and regions are not even. Why some countries and regions are more affected than some other countries and regions? We employ simple statistical methods to investigate any linkage between the severity of the disease and the environmental, economic and social factors of countries. The estimation results indicate that the number of confirmed cases of Coronavirus infection is higher in countries with lower yearly average temperatures, higher economic openness, and stronger political democracy. However, findings of this analysis should be interpreted carefully keeping in mind the fact that statistical relations do not necessarily imply causation. Only clinical experiments with medical expertise can confirm how the virus behaves in the environment.

negative: Protease inhibitors broadly effective against feline, ferret and mink coronaviruses Abstract Ferret and mink coronaviruses typically cause catarrhal diarrhea in ferrets and minks, respectively. In recent years, however, systemic fatal coronavirus infection has emerged in ferrets, which resembles feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) in cats. FIP is a highly fatal systemic disease caused by a virulent feline coronavirus infection in cats. Despite the importance of coronavirus infections in these animals, there are no effective commercial vaccines or antiviral drugs available for these infections. We have previously reported the efficacy of a protease inhibitor in cats with FIP, demonstrating that a virally encoded 3C-like protease (3CLpro) is a valid target for antiviral drug development for coronavirus infections. In this study, we extended our previous work on coronavirus inhibitors and investigated the structure-activity relationships of a focused library of protease inhibitors for ferret and mink 3CLpro. Using the fluorescence resonance energy transfer assay, we identified potent inhibitors broadly effective against feline, ferret and mink coronavirus 3CLpro. Multiple amino acid sequence analysis and modelling of 3CLpro of ferret and mink coronaviruses were conducted to probe the structural basis for these findings. The results of this study provide support for further research to develop broad-spectrum antiviral agents for multiple coronavirus infections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report on small molecule inhibitors of ferret and mink coronaviruses.

negative: Understanding Viral Transmission Behavior via Protein Intrinsic Disorder Prediction: Coronaviruses Besides being a common threat to farm animals and poultry, coronavirus (CoV) was responsible for the human severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2002–4. However, many aspects of CoV behavior, including modes of its transmission, are yet to be fully understood. We show that the amount and the peculiarities of distribution of the protein intrinsic disorder in the viral shell can be used for the efficient analysis of the behavior and transmission modes of CoV. The proposed model allows categorization of the various CoVs by the peculiarities of disorder distribution in their membrane (M) and nucleocapsid (N). This categorization enables quick identification of viruses with similar behaviors in transmission, regardless of genetic proximity. Based on this analysis, an empirical model for predicting the viral transmission behavior is developed. This model is able to explain some behavioral aspects of important coronaviruses that previously were not fully understood. The new predictor can be a useful tool for better epidemiological, clinical, and structural understanding of behavior of both newly emerging viruses and viruses that have been known for a long time. A potentially new vaccine strategy could involve searches for viral strains that are characterized by the evolutionary misfit between the peculiarities of the disorder distribution in their shells and their behavior.

negative: Serology characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 infection since the exposure and post symptoms onset Background Timely diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection is the prerequisite for treatment and preventive quarantine. The serology characteristics and complement diagnosis value of antibody test to RNA test needs to be demonstrated. Method A patient cohort study was conducted at the first affiliated hospital of Zhejiang University, China. Serial sera of COVID-19 patients were collected and total antibody (Ab), IgM and IgG antibody against SARS-CoV-2 were detected. The antibody dynamics during the infection were described. Results The seroconversion rate for Ab, IgM and IgG in COVID-19 patients was 98.8% (79/80), 93.8% (75/80) and 93.8% (75/80), respectively. The first detectible serology marker is total antibody and followed by IgM and IgG, with a median seroconversion time of 15, 18 and 20 day post exposure (d.p.e) or 9, 10 and 12 days post onset, separately. The antibody levels increased rapidly since 6 d.p.o and accompanied with the decline of viral load. For patients in the early stage of illness (0-7d.p.o),Ab showed the highest sensitivity (64.1%) compared to the IgM and IgG (33.3% for both, p<0.001). The sensitivities of Ab, IgM and IgG detection increased to 100%, 96.7% and 93.3% two weeks later, respectively. Conclusions Typical acute antibody response is induced during the SARS-CoV-2 infection. The serology testing provides important complementation to RNA test for pathogenic specific diagnosis and helpful information to evaluate the adapted immunity status of patient. It should be strongly recommended to apply well-validated antibody tests in the clinical management and public health practice to improve the control of COVID-19 infection.

negative: Environmental Impact: Concept, Consequences, Measurement ☆ Abstract Environments on Earth are always changing, and living systems evolve within them. For most of their history, human beings did the same. But in the last two centuries, humans have become the planet’s dominant species, changing and often degrading Earth’s environments and living systems, including human cultures, in unprecedented ways. Contemporary worldviews that have severed ancient connections between people and the environments that shaped us – plus our consumption and population growth – deepened this degradation. Understanding, measuring, and managing today’s human environmental impacts – the most important consequence of which is the impoverishment of living systems – is humanity’s greatest challenge for the 21st century.

negative: The impact of cold on the respiratory tract and its consequences to respiratory health The increasing use, and sometimes the abuse, particularly in industrialized countries of air conditioning at home, in car, hotel and shopping centres has highlighted new emerging public health issues, resulting from exposure of the airways to cool air or, more properly, resulting from sudden temperature changes. This is part of a wider problem, relating to air quality in indoor environment, such as homes or offices, where people spend more than 90% of their time. In particular, if indoor exposure occurs quickly and without any gradual adaptation to a temperature 2°–3° lower than the external temperature and especially with a 5° difference (avoiding indoor temperature below 24°) and an humidity between 40 and 60%, there is a risk of negative consequences on the respiratory tract and the patient risks to be in a clinical condition characterized by an exacerbation of the respiratory symptoms of his chronic respiratory disease (asthma and COPD) within a few hours or days. Surprisingly, these effects of cold climate remain out of the focus of the media unless spells of unusually cold weather sweep through a local area or unstable weather conditions associated with extremely cold periods of increasing frequency and duration. Moreover, the energy consumed by air conditioning induces an increase of CO(2) in atmosphere with increase of global warming. There is a need to better define the consequences of repeated exposure to cold air and the mechanisms by which such exposure could modify airway function and affect the outcomes of patients with pre-existing airway disease. This could help to promote adequate policy and public health actions to face the incoming challenges induced by climate change and global warming.

negative: Predicting Drug-Target Interaction Networks Based on Functional Groups and Biological Features BACKGROUND: Study of drug-target interaction networks is an important topic for drug development. It is both time-consuming and costly to determine compound-protein interactions or potential drug-target interactions by experiments alone. As a complement, the in silico prediction methods can provide us with very useful information in a timely manner. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To realize this, drug compounds are encoded with functional groups and proteins encoded by biological features including biochemical and physicochemical properties. The optimal feature selection procedures are adopted by means of the mRMR (Maximum Relevance Minimum Redundancy) method. Instead of classifying the proteins as a whole family, target proteins are divided into four groups: enzymes, ion channels, G-protein- coupled receptors and nuclear receptors. Thus, four independent predictors are established using the Nearest Neighbor algorithm as their operation engine, with each to predict the interactions between drugs and one of the four protein groups. As a result, the overall success rates by the jackknife cross-validation tests achieved with the four predictors are 85.48%, 80.78%, 78.49%, and 85.66%, respectively. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results indicate that the network prediction system thus established is quite promising and encouraging.

negative: Climate Change, Covid-19, Preparedness, and Consciousness

negative: COVID-19: Conceptos clave para el cirujano Resumen Ante la pandemia por SARS-CoV-2 resulta fundamental conocer los aspectos claves de la infección: su origen epidemiológico, presentación, curso clínico, diagnóstico y los tratamientos empleados (aún experimentales en muchos casos). El conocimiento sobre el virus es limitado, pero a medida que progresa la pandemia y se conoce más su fisiopatología, se está publicando nueva evidencia de forma masiva. Los especialistas quirúrgicos se enfrentan a una situación sin precedentes: deben colaborar en plantas médicas o urgencias atendiendo a estos pacientes y además tomar decisiones sobre pacientes quirúrgicos con posible COVID-19. Esta revisión narrativa pretende resumir los aspectos más relevantes y sintetizar los conceptos básicos sobre COVID-19 para los cirujanos. Abstract In view of the current pandemic by SARS-CoV-2 it deems essential to understand the key concepts about the infection: its epidemiological origin, presentation, clinical course, diagnosis and treatment (still experimental in many cases). The knowledge about the virus is still limited, but as the pandemic progresses and the physiopathology of the disease is understood, new evidence is being massively published. Surgical specialists are facing an unprecedented situation: they must collaborate in the ER or medical wards attending these patients, while still needing to make decisions about surgical patients with probable COVID-19. The present narrative review aims to summarize the most relevant aspects and synthetize concepts on COVID-19 for surgeons.

negative: Evaluation by indirect immunofluorescent assay and enzyme linked immunosorbent assay of the dynamic changes of serum antibody responses against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. BACKGROUND Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is a newly emerging virus that gives rise to SARS patients with high rates of infectivity and fatality. To study the humoral immune responses to SARS-CoV, the authors evaluated IgG and IgM specific antibodies in patients' sera. METHODS Two methods, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and indirect immunofluorescent assay (IFA), were used to detect specific serum IgG and IgM against SARS-CoV in 98 SARS patients and 250 controls consisting of patients with pneumonia, health-care professionals and healthy subjects. The serum antibody profiles were investigated at different times over one and a half years in 18 of the SARS patients. RESULTS The sensitivity and specificity of ELISA for detecting IgG against SARS-CoV were 100.0% and 97.2% and for IgM 89.8% and 97.6% respectively; the figures using IFA for IgG were 100.0% and 100.0% and for IgM 81.8% and 100.0% respectively. During the first seven days of the antibodies trace test, no IgG and IgM were detected, but on day 15, IgG response increased dramatically, reaching a peak on day 60, remaining high up to day 180 and decreasing gradually until day 540. On day 15, IgM was detected, rapidly reached a peak, then declined gradually until day 180 when IgM was undetectable. CONCLUSION The detection of antibodies against SARS virus is helpful in the clinical diagnosis of SARS.

negative: Resilience resistance: The challenges and implications of urban resilience implementation Growing concern about major threats, including climate change, environmental disasters, and other hazards, is matched with the increased interest and appeal of the concept of urban resilience. Much scholarly attention has focused on how to define urban resilience, in addition to raising questions about its applicability and usefulness. But those debates typically overlook questions of implementation. Implementation is important not only for how cities respond to threats but also because it can influence how urban resilience is perceived, discussed, and understood. The policy literature suggests that implementation is rarely straightforward and has ideological and normative perspectives embedded within it. Building on this literature, this paper argues that urban resilience implementation raises its own conceptual questions for both theory and practice. Further, implementing urban resilience entails its own unique challenges, such as extensive coordination, maintaining adaptability, divergent time horizons, and diverse outcomes. The paper also introduces the idea of resilience resistance as a new challenge for urban resilience. Resistance refers to the condition in which governance systems inherently develop barriers to change, flexibility, and adaptability through implementation. Several aspects of resistance are highlighted, including fatigue, complacency, and overconfidence. However, the implementation process can also have unintended positive effects on a city's capacity to prepare for and respond to shocks.

negative: Optimal Resolution of Change-Point Detection with Empirically Observed Statistics and Erasures This paper revisits the offline change-point detection problem from a statistical learning perspective. Instead of assuming that the underlying pre- and post-change distributions are known, it is assumed that we have partial knowledge of these distributions based on empirically observed statistics in the form of training sequences. Our problem formulation finds a variety of real-life applications from detecting when climate change occurred to detecting when a virus mutated. Using the training sequences as well as the test sequence consisting of a single-change and allowing for the erasure or rejection option, we derive the optimal resolution between the estimated and true change-points under two different asymptotic regimes on the undetected error probability---namely, the large and moderate deviations regimes. In both regimes, strong converses are also proved. In the moderate deviations case, the optimal resolution is a simple function of a symmetrized version of the chi-square distance.

negative: A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans SARS-Cov-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2), which causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) was first detected in China in late 2019 and has since then caused a global pandemic. While molecular assays to directly detect the viral genetic material are available for the diagnosis of acute infection, we currently lack serological assays suitable to specifically detect SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Here we describe serological enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA) that we developed using recombinant antigens derived from the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Using negative control samples representing pre-COVID 19 background immunity in the general adult population as well as samples from COVID19 patients, we demonstrate that these assays are sensitive and specific, allowing for screening and identification of COVID19 seroconverters using human plasma/serum as early as two days post COVID19 symptoms onset. Importantly, these assays do not require handling of infectious virus, can be adjusted to detect different antibody types and are amendable to scaling. Such serological assays are of critical importance to determine seroprevalence in a given population, define previous exposure and identify highly reactive human donors for the generation of convalescent serum as therapeutic. Sensitive and specific identification of coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 antibody titers may, in the future, also support screening of health care workers to identify those who are already immune and can be deployed to care for infected patients minimizing the risk of viral spread to colleagues and other patients.

negative: Emerging virus diseases: can we ever expect the unexpected? Emerging virus diseases are a major threat to human and veterinary public health. With new examples occurring approximately one each year, the majority are viruses originating from an animal host. Of the many factors responsible, changes to local ecosystems that perturb the balance between pathogen and principal host species is one of the major drivers, together with increasing urbanization of mankind and changes in human behavior. Many emerging viruses have RNA genomes and as such are capable of rapid mutation and selection of new variants in the face of environmental changes in host numbers and available target species. This review summarizes recent work on aspects of virus emergence and the current understanding of the molecular and immunological basis whereby viruses may cross between species and become established in new ecological niches. Emergence is hard to predict, although mathematical modeling and spatial epidemiology have done much to improve the prediction of where emergence may occur. However, much needs to be done to ensure adequate surveillance is maintained of animal species known to present the greatest risk thus increasing general alertness among physicians, veterinarians and those responsible for formulating public health policy.

negative: Follow Your Gut: Challenges in Nutritional Therapy During the COVID-19 Pandemic

negative: Survival of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in thermally treated feed ingredients and on surfaces BACKGROUND: Infection with Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV) causes vomiting, diarrhea, and dehydration in young pigs. The virus made its first appearance in the U.S. in 2013, where it caused substantial neonatal mortality and economic losses in the U.S. pork industry. Based on outbreak investigations, it is hypothesized that the virus could be transmitted through contaminated feed or contaminated feed surfaces. This potential risk created a demand for research on the inactivation kinetics of PEDV in different environments. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the survival of PEDV in 9 different feed ingredients when exposed to 60, 70, 80, and 90 °C, as well as the survival on four different surfaces (galvanized steel, stainless steel, aluminum, and plastic). RESULTS: Overall, there were no differences (P > 0.05) in virus survival among the different feed matrices studied when thermally processed at 60 to 90 °C for 5, 10, 15, or 30 min. However, the time necessary to achieve a one log reduction in virus concentration was less (P < 0.05) when ingredients were exposed to temperatures from 70 °C (3.7 min), 80 °C (2.4 min), and 90 °C (2.3 min) compared with 60 °C (4.4 min). The maximum inactivation level (3.9 log) was achieved when heating all ingredients at 90 °C for 30 min. There were no differences in the amount of time necessary to cause a one log reduction in PEDV concentration among the different surfaces. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study showed that PEDV survival among the 9 feed ingredients evaluated was not different when exposed to thermal treatments for up to 30 min. However, different combinations of temperature and time resulted in achieving a 3 to 4 log reduction of PEDV in all feed ingredients evaluated. Finally, PEDV survival was similar on galvanized steel, stainless steel, aluminum and plastic.

negative: Déjà Vu or Jamais Vu? How the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Experience Influenced a Singapore Radiology Department's Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Epidemic. OBJECTIVE. This article shares the ground operational perspective of how a tertiary hospital radiology department in Singapore is responding to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. This same department was also deeply impacted by the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003. CONCLUSION. Though similar to SARS, the COVID-19 outbreak has several differences. We share how lessons from 2003 are applied and modified in our ongoing operational response to this evolving novel pathogen.

negative: Weather factors in the short-term forecasting of daily ambulance calls The daily ambulance demand for Hong Kong is rising, and it has been shown that weather factors (temperature and humidity) play a role in the demand for ambulance services. This study aimed at developing short-term forecasting models of daily ambulance calls using the 7-day weather forecast data as predictors. We employed the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method to analyze over 1.3 million cases of emergency attendance in May 2006 through April 2009 and the 7-day weather forecast data for the same period. Our results showed that the ARIMA model could offer reasonably accurate forecasts of daily ambulance calls at 1–7 days ahead of time and with improved accuracy by including weather factors. Specifically, the inclusion of average temperature alone in our ARIMA model improved the predictability of the 1-day forecast when compared to that of a simple ARIMA model (8.8 % decrease in the root mean square error, RMSE = 53 vs 58). The improvement in the 7-day forecast with average temperature as a predictor was more pronounced, with a 10 % drop in prediction error (RMSE = 62 vs 69). These findings suggested that weather forecast data can improve the 1- to 7-day forecasts of daily ambulance demand. As weather forecast data are readily accessible from Hong Kong Observatory’s official website, there is virtually no cost to including them in the ARIMA models, which yield better prediction for forward planning and deployment of ambulance manpower.

negative: Respiratory syncytial virus nonstructural proteins 1 and 2: Exceptional disrupters of innate immune responses Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most important cause of acute lower respiratory tract disease in infants worldwide. As a first line of defense against respiratory infections, innate immune responses, including the production of type I and III interferons (IFNs), play an important role. Upon infection with RSV, multiple pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) can recognize RSV-derived pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) and mount innate immune responses. Retinoic-acid-inducible gene-I (RIG-I) and nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-containing protein 2 (NOD2) have been identified as important innate receptors to mount type I IFNs during RSV infection. However, type I IFN levels remain surprisingly low during RSV infection despite strong viral replication. The poor induction of type I IFNs can be attributed to the cooperative activity of 2 unique, nonstructural (NS) proteins of RSV, i.e., NS1 and NS2. These viral proteins have been shown to suppress both the production and signaling of type I and III IFNs by counteracting a plethora of key host innate signaling proteins. Moreover, increasing numbers of IFN-stimulated genes (ISGs) are being identified as targets of the NS proteins in recent years, highlighting an underexplored protein family in the identification of NS target proteins. To understand the diverse effector functions of NS1 and NS2, Goswami and colleagues proposed the hypothesis of the NS degradasome (NSD) complex, a multiprotein complex made up of, at least, NS1 and NS2. Furthermore, the crystal structure of NS1 was resolved recently and, remarkably, identified NS1 as a structural paralogue of the RSV matrix protein. Unfortunately, no structural data on NS2 have been published so far. In this review, we briefly describe the PRRs that mount innate immune responses upon RSV infection and provide an overview of the various effector functions of NS1 and NS2. Furthermore, we discuss the ubiquitination effector functions of NS1 and NS2, which are in line with the hypothesis that the NSD shares features with the canonical 26S proteasome.

negative: Mitigation of emerging implications of climate change on food production systems Abstract Crops, livestock and seafood are major contributors to global economy. Agriculture and fisheries are especially dependent on climate. Thus, elevated temperatures and carbon dioxide levels can have large impacts on appropriate nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability and various other critical performance conditions. Changes in drought and flood frequency and severity can pose severe challenges to farmers and threaten food safety. In addition, increasingly warmer water temperatures are likely to shift the habitat ranges of many fish and shellfish species, ultimately disrupting ecosystems. In general, climate change will probably have negative implications for farming, animal husbandry and fishing. The effects of climate change must be taken into account as a key aspect along with other evolving factors with a potential impact on agricultural production, such as changes in agricultural practices and technology; all of them with a serious impact on food availability and price. This review is intended to provide critical and timely information on climate change and its implications in the food production/consumption system, paying special attention to the available mitigation strategies.

negative: Periurban outbreaks of bovine calf scours in Northern India caused by Cryptosporidium in association with other enteropathogens Bovine calf scours reported to be caused by multiple aetiologies resulting in heavy mortality in unweaned calves and huge economic loss to the dairy farmers. Among these, cryptosporidiosis is an emerging waterborne zoonoses and one of the important causes of neonatal calf diarrhoea. Poor immune response coupled with primary cryptosporidial infections predispose neonatal calves to multiple secondary infections resulting in their deaths. In the present study, faecal samples from 100 diarrhoeic calves randomly picked up out of 17 outbreaks of bovine calf diarrhoea in periurban Ludhiana, Punjab in Northern India were subjected to conventional (microscopy, modified Zeihl–Neelsen (mZN) staining) and immunological and molecular techniques (faecal antigen capture ELISA and PCR) for detection of primary Cryptosporidium parvum infection as well as other frequently reported concurrent pathogens, viz. rotavirus and coronavirus, Salmonella spp., Escherichia coli, Clostridium perfringens and Eimeria spp. The faecal antigen capture ELISA and PCR revealed 35% prevalence of C. parvum in contrast to 25% by mZN staining with a relatively higher prevalence (66·7%) in younger (8–14-day-old) calves. The detection rate of the other enteropathogens associated with C. parvum was 45·71% for C. perfringens followed by Salmonella spp (40·0%), rotavirus (36·0%), coronavirus (16·0%), E. coli (12·0%) and Eimeria spp (4·0%) The sensitivity for detection of C. parvum by ELISA and mZN staining in comparison to PCR was 97·14% and 72·72%, respectively. An important finding of the study was that C. parvum alone was found in only 10% of the diarrhoeic faecal samples, whereas, majority of the samples (90%) showed mixed infections ranging from a combination of two to five agents. This is the first documentary proof of C. parvum and associated pathogens responsible for severe periurban outbreaks of bovine calf diarrhoea culminating in heavy mortality from Northern India.

negative: Flourishing Being part of, or witnessing, a terrible disaster is clearly very distressing. How do we minimize this kind of distress and continue to flourish in the future as we face extreme climate events such as wildfires and flooding? How do we identify and learn from past events lying hidden, unrecognized and unforeseen as failure incubated? What are the global ‘grand challenges’—both natural and man-made? What are the UN Sustainable Development Goals? To achieve them do we need to reverse the fragmentation of the professions into ‘silos’? What is ‘joined-up’ thinking in ‘joined-up’ organisations and nation states and how important is it? Despite all the advances in science, we know less actually than we think we know. Contingency planning that expects surprises must be the new norm. Learn anew how to learn together is the new wisdom. Use the golden rule ‘do not do to others that you would not have them do to you’, whatever you are told to believe, is our tenet. Behaviour is more important than belief—imperfect doing is better than uncertain knowing. But to do all of this collectively requires leadership that we can trust—perhaps the biggest challenge of all?

negative: Spread, Circulation, and Evolution of the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first documented in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2012 and, to date, has been identified in 180 cases with 43% mortality. In this study, we have determined the MERS-CoV evolutionary rate, documented genetic variants of the virus and their distribution throughout the Arabian peninsula, and identified the genome positions under positive selection, important features for monitoring adaptation of MERS-CoV to human transmission and for identifying the source of infections. Respiratory samples from confirmed KSA MERS cases from May to September 2013 were subjected to whole-genome deep sequencing, and 32 complete or partial sequences (20 were ≥99% complete, 7 were 50 to 94% complete, and 5 were 27 to 50% complete) were obtained, bringing the total available MERS-CoV genomic sequences to 65. An evolutionary rate of 1.12 × 10(−3) substitutions per site per year (95% credible interval [95% CI], 8.76 × 10(−4); 1.37 × 10(−3)) was estimated, bringing the time to most recent common ancestor to March 2012 (95% CI, December 2011; June 2012). Only one MERS-CoV codon, spike 1020, located in a domain required for cell entry, is under strong positive selection. Four KSA MERS-CoV phylogenetic clades were found, with 3 clades apparently no longer contributing to current cases. The size of the population infected with MERS-CoV showed a gradual increase to June 2013, followed by a decline, possibly due to increased surveillance and infection control measures combined with a basic reproduction number (R(0)) for the virus that is less than 1.

negative: Spécificité d’hôte des virus et passages inter-espèces Résumé Les virus possèdent habituellement une spécificité d’hôte et sont inféodés à une espèce animale. Cette spécificité est conditionnée par la sensibilité des cellules au virus et donc par la présence de récepteurs spécifiques sur la cellule hôte. La permissivité de la cellule, c’est-à-dire sa capacité à permettre la réplication du virus, peut également conditionner cette spécificité d’hôte. Toutefois, pour de nombreux virus, cette spécificité d’hôte n’est pas absolue et des passages inter-espèces sont possibles. Les virus provenant d’un réservoir animal pouvant infecter l’homme sont responsables de zoonoses. L’émergence de ces zoonoses est favorisée par les perturbations des équilibres naturels résultant de l’activité humaine. Des mutations peuvent permettre une meilleure adaptation des virus d’origine animale à l’espèce humaine et favoriser ainsi leur propagation épidémique. Summary Most viruses are host-specific and thus, they are closely associated to an animal species. This host specificity is conditioned by the cell susceptibility to the virus, given by the host cell receptors, and by the cell permissivity that relies on the availability of cellular factors required for viral replication. However, for many viruses, this host specificity is not absolute and inter-species transmissions are possible. Viruses which can be transmitted from an animal reservoir to humans are responsible for zoonotic diseases. Human activities and their impact on the natural environment dramatically contribute to emergence of zoonoses. Selection of viral mutations that confer better adaptation of animal viruses to humans may lead to epidemic spread of these diseases.

negative: The need to connect: Acute social isolation causes neural craving responses similar to hunger When people are forced to be isolated from one another, do they crave social interactions in the same way a hungry person craves food? To address this question, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to measure neural responses in participants (n=40) evoked by food and social cues after ten hours of mandated fasting or total social isolation. After isolation, people felt lonely and craved social interaction. Midbrain regions showed increased activation to food cues after fasting and to social cues after isolation; these responses were correlated with self-reported craving. Neural patterns in response to food cues when participants were hungry generalized to social cues after isolation. Our results support the intuitive idea that acute isolation causes social craving, similar to hunger.

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic will have a long-lasting impact on the quality of cirrhosis care Summary The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has shattered the meticulously developed processes by which we delivered quality care for patients with cirrhosis. Care has been transformed by the crisis, but enduring lessons have been learned. In this article, we review how COVID-19 will impact cirrhosis care. We describe how this impact unfolds over 3 waves; i) an intense period with prioritized high-acuity care with delayed elective procedures and routine care during physical distancing, ii) a challenging ‘return to normal’ following the end of physical distancing, with increased emergent decompensations, morbidity, and systems of care overwhelmed by the backlog of deferred care, and iii) a protracted period of suboptimal outcomes characterized by missed diagnoses, progressive disease and loss to follow-up. We outline the concrete steps required to preserve the quality of care provided to patients with cirrhosis. This includes an intensification of the preventative care provided to patients with compensated cirrhosis, proactive chronic disease management, robust telehealth programs, and a reorganization of care delivery to provide a full service of care with flexible clinical staffing. Managing the pandemic of a serious chronic disease in the midst of a global infectious pandemic is challenging. It is incumbent upon the entire healthcare establishment to be strong enough to weather the storm. Change is needed.

negative: A Social Network Model of the COVID-19 Pandemic In the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, currently vaccines and specific anti-viral treatment are not yet available. Thus, preventing viral transmission by case isolation, quarantine, and social distancing is essential to slowing its spread. Here we model social networks using weighted graphs, where vertices represent individuals and edges represent contact. As public health measures are implemented, connectivity in the graph decreases, resulting in lower effective reproductive numbers, and reduced viral transmission. For COVID-19, model parameters were derived from the coronavirus epidemic in China, validated by epidemic data in Italy, then applied to the United States. We calculate that, in the U.S., the public is able to contain viral transmission by limiting the average number of contacts per person to less than 7 unique individuals over each 5 day period. This increases the average social distance between individuals to 10 degrees of separation.

negative: Masked Face Recognition Dataset and Application In order to effectively prevent the spread of COVID-19 virus, almost everyone wears a mask during coronavirus epidemic. This almost makes conventional facial recognition technology ineffective in many cases, such as community access control, face access control, facial attendance, facial security checks at train stations, etc. Therefore, it is very urgent to improve the recognition performance of the existing face recognition technology on the masked faces. Most current advanced face recognition approaches are designed based on deep learning, which depend on a large number of face samples. However, at present, there are no publicly available masked face recognition datasets. To this end, this work proposes three types of masked face datasets, including Masked Face Detection Dataset (MFDD), Real-world Masked Face Recognition Dataset (RMFRD) and Simulated Masked Face Recognition Dataset (SMFRD). Among them, to the best of our knowledge, RMFRD is currently theworld's largest real-world masked face dataset. These datasets are freely available to industry and academia, based on which various applications on masked faces can be developed. The multi-granularity masked face recognition model we developed achieves 95% accuracy, exceeding the results reported by the industry. Our datasets are available at: https://github.com/X-zhangyang/Real-World-Masked-Face-Dataset.

negative: A Comprehensive Analytical Framework for Risks, Disasters and Crises Early warning and emergency management is a comprehensive and integrated system that deals with all sorts of emergencies, risks and crises, and involves various sectors of society and government departments. A consistent and holistic approach, however, has previously been lacking in both research and practice.

negative: Insights into The Codon Usage Bias of 13 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Isolates from Different Geo-locations Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is the causative agent of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) which is an infectious disease that spread throughout the world and was declared as a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). In the present study, we analyzed genome-wide codon usage patterns in 13 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from different geo-locations (countries) by utilizing different CUB measurements. Nucleotide and di-nucleotide compositions displayed bias toward A/U content in all codon positions and CpU-ended codons preference, respectively. Relative Synonymous Codon Usage (RSCU) analysis revealed 8 common putative preferred codons among all the 13 isolates. Interestingly, all of the latter codons are A/U-ended (U-ended: 7, A-ended: 1). Cluster analysis (based on RSCU values) was performed and showed comparable results to the phylogenetic analysis (based on their whole genome sequences) indicating that the CUB pattern may reflect the evolutionary relationship between the tested isolates. To investigate the force (mutation and/or selection) influencing the pattern of CUB in SARS-CoV-2 coding sequences, we employed the following; (i). Effective number of codons (ENc), (ii). ENc-GC3 plot, (iii). Neutrality plot, and (iv) Codon adaptation index (CAI). According to their results, natural selection and/or other factors (not investigated in this study) may be the dominant force driving SARS-CoV-2 CUB. It is also worth mentioning that, by using the most expressed genes in human lung tissues as a reference set, some viral genes such as Nucleocapsid phosphoprotein, ORF7a protein, and surface glycoprotein had high CAI values which may indicate for selection force acting on their codon usage, as they play important roles in viral assembly and may help viruses avoid the host immune system. The outcome of our study may help in understanding the underlying factors involved in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 viruses, and the interactions with their host. Also, it may aid in vaccine design strategies.

negative: The third coronavirus epidemic in the third millennium: what’s next?

negative: Replication of a bovine coronavirus in organ cultures of foetal trachea Abstract A strain of bovine coronavirus (BC) adapted to tissue culture, was inoculated into organ cultures of bovine foetal trachea. Haemagglutinin in the fluid from infected organ cultures reached titres of 32 and characteristic coronavirus particles were observed electron microscopically. BC virus antigen was detected in frozen sections of the organ cultures by staining with fluorescent antibody. These data were evidence that BC virus replicated in organ cultures of respiratory tissue. The use of this technique for primary isolation of bovine coronaviruses from field material is discussed.

negative: Coronavirus in Continuous Flux: From SARS‐CoV to SARS‐CoV‐2 The world is currently experiencing a global pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2), which causes severe respiratory disease similar to SARS. Previous studies have suggested that SARS‐CoV‐2 shares 79% and 96% sequence identity to SARS‐CoV and to bat coronavirus RaTG13, respectively at the whole‐genome level. Furthermore, a series of studies have shown that SARS‐CoV‐2 induces clusters of severe respiratory illnesses (i.e., pneumonia, acute lung injury (ALI), acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)) resembling SARS‐CoV. Moreover, the pathological syndrome may, in part, be caused by cytokine storms and dysregulated immune responses. Thus, in this work the recent literature surrounding the biology, clinical manifestations, and immunology of SARS‐CoV‐2 is summarized, with the aim of aiding prevention, diagnosis, and treatment for SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

negative: Detection of an antigenic group 2 coronavirus in an adult alpaca with enteritis. Antigenic group 2 coronavirus was detected in a fecal sample of an adult alpaca by reverse transcription-PCR. The presence of alpaca coronavirus (ApCoV) in the small intestine was demonstrated by immune histochemistry with an antinucleocapsid monoclonal antibody that reacts with group 2 coronaviruses. Other common causes of diarrhea in adult camelids were not detected. We conclude that nutritional stress may have predisposed the alpaca to severe ApCoV infection.

negative: Resilient and Agile Engineering Solutions to Address Societal Challenges such as Coronavirus Pandemic The world is witnessing tumultuous times as major economic powers including the US, UK, Russia, India, and most of Europe continue to be in a state of lockdown. The worst-hit sectors due to this lockdown are sales, production (manufacturing), transport (aerospace and automotive) and tourism. Lockdowns became necessary as a preventive measure to avoid the spread of the contagious and infectious “Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19). This newly identified disease is caused by a new strain of the virus being referred to as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS CoV-2; formerly called 2019-nCoV). We review the current medical and manufacturing response to COVID-19, including advances in instrumentation, sensing, use of lasers, fumigation chambers and development of novel tools such as lab-on-the-chip using combinatorial additive and subtractive manufacturing techniques and use of molecular modelling and molecular docking in drug and vaccine discovery. We also offer perspectives on future considerations on climate change, outsourced versus indigenous manufacturing, automation, and antimicrobial resistance. Overall, this paper attempts to identify key areas where manufacturing can be employed to address societal challenges such as COVID-19.

negative: An Overview of the Most Significant Zoonotic Viral Pathogens Transmitted from Animal to Human in Saudi Arabia Currently, there has been an increasing socioeconomic impact of zoonotic pathogens transmitted from animals to humans worldwide. Recently, in the Arabian Peninsula, including in Saudi Arabia, epidemiological data indicated an actual increase in the number of emerging and/or reemerging cases of several viral zoonotic diseases. Data presented in this review are very relevant because Saudi Arabia is considered the largest country in the Peninsula. We believe that zoonotic pathogens in Saudi Arabia remain an important public health problem; however, more than 10 million Muslim pilgrims from around 184 Islamic countries arrive yearly at Makkah for the Hajj season and/or for the Umrah. Therefore, for health reasons, several countries recommend vaccinations for various zoonotic diseases among preventive protocols that should be complied with before traveling to Saudi Arabia. However, there is a shortage of epidemiological data focusing on the emerging and reemerging of zoonotic pathogens transmitted from animal to humans in different densely populated cities and/or localities in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, further efforts might be needed to control the increasing impacts of zoonotic viral disease. Also, there is a need for a high collaboration to enhance the detection and determination of the prevalence, diagnosis, control, and prevention as well as intervention and reduction in outbreaks of these diseases in Saudi Arabia, particularly those from other countries. Persons in the health field including physicians and veterinarians, pet owners, pet store owners, exporters, border guards, and people involved in businesses related to animal products have adopted various preventive strategies. Some of these measures might pave the way to highly successful prevention and control results on the different transmission routes of these viral zoonotic diseases from or to Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the prevention of these viral pathogens depends on socioeconomic impacts, available data, improved diagnosis, and highly effective therapeutics or prophylaxis.

negative: Can atmospheric pollution be considered a co-factor in extremely high level of SARS-CoV-2 lethality in Northern Italy? Abstract This paper investigates the correlation between the high level of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) lethality and the atmospheric pollution in Northern Italy. Indeed, Lombardy and Emilia Romagna are Italian regions with both the highest level of virus lethality in the world and one of Europe’s most polluted area. Based on this correlation, this paper analyzes the possible link between pollution and the development of acute respiratory distress syndrome and eventually death. We provide evidence that people living in an area with high levels of pollutant are more prone to develop chronic respiratory conditions and suitable to any infective agent. Moreover, a prolonged exposure to air pollution leads to a chronic inflammatory stimulus, even in young and healthy subjects. We conclude that the high level of pollution in Northern Italy should be considered an additional co-factor of the high level of lethality recorded in that area.

negative: High-temperature indices associated with mortality and outpatient visits: Characterizing the association with elevated temperature Abstract This study aimed to identify optimal high-temperature indices to predict risks of all-cause mortality and outpatient visits for subtropical islanders in warm seasons (May to October). Eight high-temperature indices, including three single measurements (average, maximum and minimum temperature) and five composite indices (heat index, humidex, temperature humidity index, apparent temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature), and their standardized Z scores, were used in distributed lag non-linear models. Cumulative 8-day (lag zero to seven days) relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated, 1 and 2 standardized deviations above the medium (i.e., at 84.1th and 97.7th percentile, respectively), by comparing with Z scores for the lowest risks of mortality and outpatient visits as references. Analyses were performed for Taipei in north, Central Taiwan and Southern Taiwan. Results showed that standardized Z-values of high-temperature indices associated with the lowest health risk were approximately 0 in Taipei and Central Taiwan, and −1 in Southern Taiwan. As the apparent temperature was at Z=2, the cumulative 8-day mortality risk increased significantly, by 23% in Taipei and 28% in Southern Taiwan, but not in Central Taiwan. The maximum temperature displayed consistently a high correlation with all-cause outpatient visits at Z=1; with the cumulative 8-day RRs for outpatient visits increased by 7%, 3%, and 4% in the three corresponding areas. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated methods to compare multiple high-temperature indices associated with all-cause mortality and outpatient visits for population residing in a subtropical island. Apparent temperature is an optimal indicator for predicting all-cause mortality risk, and maximum temperature is recommended to associate with outpatient visits. The impact of heat varied with study areas, evaluated health outcomes, and high-temperature indices. The increased extreme heat is associated with stronger risk for all-cause mortality than for outpatient visits.

negative: Transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus gene 7 is not essential but influences in vivo virus replication and virulence Abstract Transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus (TGEV) contains eight overlapping genes that are expressed from a 3′-coterminal nested set of leader-containing mRNAs. To facilitate the genetic manipulation of the viral genome, genes were separated by duplication of transcription regulating sequences (TRSs) and introduction of unique restriction endonuclease sites at the 5′ end of each gene using an infectious cDNA clone. The recombinant TGEV (rTGEV) replicated in cell culture with similar efficiency to the wild-type virus and stably maintained the modifications introduced into the genome. In contrast, the rTGEV replication level in the lungs and gut of infected piglets and virulence were significantly reduced. rTGEV in which gene 7 expression was abrogated (rTGEV-Δ7) were recovered from cDNA constructs, indicating that TGEV gene 7 was a nonessential gene for virus replication. Interestingly, in vivo infections with rTGEV-Δ7 showed an additional reduction in virus replication in the lung and gut, and in virulence, indicating that TGEV gene 7 influences virus pathogenesis.

negative: Host defenses Repeated episodes of viral upper respiratory tract infections occur anywhere from four to eight times per year in healthy individuals Local and systemic defense mechanisms exist to battle respiratory tract pathogens. Clinical manifestations are mainly due to host inflammatory response. Unfortunately, the host defense mechanisms are very often not sufficient to prevent subsequent/repeated episodes of infections(s). Further insight into the interaction of infectious agent and host immune response, genetic factors, and environmental factors is needed for a better understanding of why humans repeatedly and frequently suffer from infections with respiratory agents and develop a disease syndrome known as common cold.

negative: Effects of environmental factors on severity and mortality of COVID-19 Background Most respiratory viruses show pronounced seasonality, but for SARS-CoV-2 this still needs to be documented. Methods We examined the disease progression of COVID-19 in 6,911 patients admitted to hospitals in Europe and China. In addition, we evaluated progress of disease symptoms in 37,187 individuals reporting symptoms into the COVID Symptom Study application. Findings Meta-analysis of the mortality risk in eight European hospitals estimated odds ratios per one day increase in the admission date to be 0.981 (0.973-0.988, p<0.001) and per increase in ambient temperature of one degree Celsius to be 0.854 (0.773-0.944, p=0.007). Statistically significant decreases of comparable magnitude in median hospital stay, probability of transfer to Intensive Care Unit and need for mechanical ventilation were also observed in most, but not all hospitals. The analysis of individually reported symptoms of 37,187 individuals in the UK also showed the decrease in symptom duration and disease severity with time. Interpretation Severity of COVID-19 in Europe decreased significantly between March and May and the seasonality of COVID-19 is the most likely explanation. Mucosal barrier and mucociliary clearance can significantly decrease viral load and disease progression, and their inactivation by low relative humidity of indoor air might significantly contribute to severity of the disease.

negative: La obesidad como factor de riesgo en personas con COVID-19: Posibles mecanismos e implicaciones Resumen Varios artículos recientes sugieren que la obesidad es un factor de riesgo para una enfermedad más grave por coronavirus. En este artículo se resume la evidencia científica disponible sobre el papel de la obesidad en COVID-19, con especial atención en las personas más jóvenes y los mecanismos biológicos propuestos para explicar tanto el mayor riesgo observado, como la posible mayor contagiosidad de esta población. Se consideran varias implicaciones de la pandemia sobre las personas con obesidad, en relación con las posibles dificultades en el manejo de los pacientes ingresados, las implicaciones del confinamiento sobre el control y tratamiento de la obesidad, y el estigma que sufren estas personas por su condición, y que puede verse aumentado si se confirma la relación de la obesidad con COVID-19. Comprender el papel de la obesidad en COVID-19 debería ser una prioridad de salud pública, dada la alta prevalencia de esta condición en nuestro país.

negative: The S proteins of human coronavirus NL63 and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus bind overlapping regions of ACE2 The cellular receptor for human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63), a group I coronavirus, is angiotensin-converting enzyme2 (ACE2). ACE2 is also the receptor for the SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), a group II coronavirus. Here we describe the ability of HCoV-NL63 to utilize a number of ACE2 variants previously characterized as SARS-CoV receptors. Several ACE2 variants that reduced SARS-CoV S-protein association similarly reduced that of HCoV-NL63, whereas alteration of a number of solvent-exposed ACE2 residues did not interfere with binding by either S protein. One notable exception is ACE2 residue 354, at the boundary of the SARS-CoV binding site, whose alteration markedly inhibited utilization by the HCoV-NL63 but not SARS-CoV S proteins. In addition, the SARS-CoV S-protein receptor-binding domain inhibited entry mediated by the HCoV-NL63 S protein. These studies indicate that HCoV-NL63, like SARS-CoV, associates region of human ACE2 that includes a key loop formed by β-strands 4 and 5.

negative: Master sensors of pathogenic RNA – RIG-I like receptors Abstract Initiating the immune response to invading pathogens, the innate immune system is constituted of immune receptors (pattern recognition receptors, PRR) that sense microbe-associated molecular patterns (MAMPs). Detection of pathogens triggers intracellular defense mechanisms, such as the secretion of cytokines or chemokines to alarm neighboring cells and attract or activate immune cells. The innate immune response to viruses is mostly based on PRRs that detect the unusual structure, modification or location of viral nucleic acids. Most of the highly pathogenic and emerging viruses are RNA genome-based viruses, which can give rise to zoonotic and epidemic diseases or cause viral hemorrhagic fever. As viral RNA is located in the same compartment as host RNA, PRRs in the cytosol have to discriminate between viral and endogenous RNA by virtue of their structure or modification. This challenging task is taken on by the homologous cytosolic DExD/H-box family helicases RIG-I and MDA5, which control the innate immune response to most RNA viruses. This review focuses on the molecular basis for RIG-I like receptor (RLR) activation by synthetic and natural ligands and will discuss controversial ligand definitions.

negative: A global perspective on hepatitis B‐related single nucleotide polymorphisms and evolution during human migration Genome‐wide association studies have indicated that human leukocyte antigen (HLA)‐DP and HLA‐DQ play roles in persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in Asia. To understand the evolution of HBV‐related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and to correlate these SNPs with chronic HBV infection among different populations, we conducted a global perspective study on hepatitis‐related SNPs. We selected 12 HBV‐related SNPs on the HLA locus and two HBV and three hepatitis C virus immune‐related SNPs for analysis. Five nasopharyngeal carcinoma‐related SNPs served as controls. All SNP data worldwide from 26 populations were downloaded from 1,000 genomes. We found a dramatic difference in the allele frequency in most of the HBV‐ and HLA‐related SNPs in East Asia compared to the other continents. A sharp change in allele frequency in 8 of 12 SNPs was found between Bengali populations in Bangladesh and Chinese Dai populations in Xishuangbanna, China (P < 0.001); these areas represent the junction of South and East Asia. For the immune‐related SNPs, significant changes were found after leaving Africa. Most of these genes shifted from higher expression genotypes in Africa to lower expression genotypes in either Europe or South Asia (P < 0.001). During this two‐stage adaptation, immunity adjusted toward a weak immune response, which could have been a survival strategy during human migration to East Asia. The prevalence of chronic HBV infection in Africa is as high as in Asia; however, the HBV‐related SNP genotypes are not present in Africa, and so the genetic mechanism of chronic HBV infection in Africa needs further exploration. Conclusion: Two stages of genetic changes toward a weak immune response occurred when humans migrated out of Africa. These changes could be a survival strategy for avoiding cytokine storms and surviving in new environments. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:1005–1013)

negative: Changes in nucleolar morphology and proteins during infection with the coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus The nucleolus is a dynamic subnuclear structure involved in ribosome subunit biogenesis, cell cycle control and mediating responses to cell stress, among other functions. While many different viruses target proteins to the nucleolus and recruit nucleolar proteins to facilitate virus replication, the effect of infection on the nucleolus in terms of morphology and protein content is unknown. Previously we have shown that the coronavirus nucleocapsid protein will localize to the nucleolus. In this study, using the avian infectious bronchitis coronavirus, we have shown that virus infection results in a number of changes to the nucleolus both in terms of gross morphology and protein content. Using confocal microscopy coupled with fluorescent labelled nucleolar marker proteins we observed changes in the morphology of the nucleolus including an enlarged fibrillar centre. We found that the tumour suppressor protein, p53, which localizes normally to the nucleus and nucleolus, was redistributed predominately to the cytoplasm.

negative: Mobility Changes in Response to COVID-19 In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, both voluntary changes in behavior and administrative restrictions on human interactions have occurred. These actions are intended to reduce the transmission rate of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We use anonymized and/or de-identified mobile device locations to measure mobility, a statistic representing the distance a typical member of a given population moves in a day. Results indicate that a large reduction in mobility has taken place, both in the US and globally. In the United States, large mobility reductions have been detected associated with the onset of the COVID-19 threat and specific government directives. Mobility data at the US admin1 (state) and admin2 (county) level have been made freely available under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license via the GitHub repository https://github.com/descarteslabs/DL-COVID-19/

negative: Studies with an unclassified virus isolated from diarrheic calves Abstract A transmissible agent (Breda agent) was isolated from a calf with diarrhea and shown to be infectious by inoculation orally into gnotobiotic and conventionally reared calves. The “Breda” agent had the morphology of a virus and possessed a hemagglutinin. Antigenic studies showed the virus to be antigenically different from bovine coronavirus, parainfluenza 3 virus, bovine rotavirus, bovine parvovirus and bovine pestivirus (BVD). Attempts to culture the virus in cell or organ cultures or in embryonated eggs, were unsuccessful. The virus was either spherical or kidney shaped, with 7–9 nm peplomers on the surface. A few particles possessed coronavirus processes of 17–20 nm, but these were arranged irregularly and were thought to be tissue debris. Three out of eight experimental calves developed severe diarrhea and the lesions in the small and large intestines were similar to those reported for coronavirus. The virus replicated in the jejunal and ileal regions of the small intestine and in the spiral colon, as judged by immunofluorescence. The virus multiplied in all experimental calves and was excreted in the feces; excretion correlating with the onset of diarrhea or a change in the appearance of the feces. There was little or no malabsorption measured by the uptake of D-xylose and the fact that infection of both the crypt and villus epithelial cells was observed, suggests that the pathogenesis may be different from rotavirus and coronavirus. Fourteen of fortyseven calves in the outbreak were infected with the virus, virus was not identified in other farm outbreaks of the disease.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 detection from nasopharyngeal swab samples without RNA extraction The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has reached more than 200 countries and territories worldwide. Given the large requirement of SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and considering that RNA extraction kits are in short supply, we investigated whether two commercial RT-qPCR kits were compatible with direct SARS-CoV-2 detection from nasopharyngeal swab samples. We show that one of the tested kits is fully compatible with direct SARS-CoV-2 detection suggesting that omission of an RNA extraction step should be considered in SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis.

negative: A multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10669-020-09772-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Response of ophthalmologists in Israel to the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has evolved into a formidable healthcare crisis. Ophthalmologists are at daily personal risk of acquiring and transmitting the virus. Implementation of official practical and protective guidelines can be challenging and is often absent. The purpose of this study was to describe the status of ophthalmology practice in Israel, at the early stages of the outbreak. METHODS: A 17-item questionnaire was distributed to ophthalmologists practicing in Israel. Data was obtained regarding demographics and clinical and surgical practice during the pandemic. RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-seven ophthalmologists completed the survey from all regions of Israel. The survey was distributed during the early stages of the outbreak. At this time, no official government guidelines were in place. Most respondents reported no reduction of elective clinic visits and surgeries and no utilization of triage questionnaires. COVID-19 guidelines were reportedly promulgated to hospital ophthalmologists but not to community and private physicians. Personal protective equipment (PPE) measures were reportedly utilized; however, many respondents often acquired them individually. A majority of respondents advocated that healthcare institutions limit clinic and surgery services to emergency services. CONCLUSION: During the critical early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel, this study emphasizes the delay in development of emergency guidelines, necessary to protect patients and ophthalmologists from this highly transmissible disease.

negative: People at Risk of Influenza Pandemics: The Evolution of Perception and Behavior Influenza pandemics can severely impact human health and society. Understanding public perception and behavior toward influenza pandemics is important for minimizing the effects of such events. Public perception and behavior are expected to change over the course of an influenza pandemic, but this idea has received little attention in previous studies. Our study aimed to understand the dynamics of public perception and behavior over the course of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Three consecutive cross-sectional surveys were administered among Beijing residents with random-digit dialing techniques in March 2008 and August and November 2009. Effective samples of 507, 508 and 1006 respondents were interviewed in each of the three surveys, respectively. The mean scores of risk perception were low to moderate across the three surveys. The perceived risk of infection of self was significantly lower than that of the community, revealing an optimistic bias. Longitudinally, the perceived risk of contracting H1N1 increased, whereas the perceived risk of being unable to obtain medicine and medical care once influenza permeated the community first increased and then decreased. Responsive actions toward influenza varied. Most respondents took actions that required little extra effort, such as ventilating rooms; these actions did not change over time. Comparatively, a smaller number of respondents took actions for coping with influenza, such as vaccination; however, these actions were taken by an increasing number of respondents over time. The association between risk perception and behavior was unstable. Positive, insignificant, and negative associations were obtained in the three surveys. In conclusion, the evolving patterns of risk perception and responsive behavior over the course of an influenza pandemic are sensitive to how risk and behavior are defined and scoped.

negative: LY6E impairs coronavirus fusion and confers immune control of viral disease Zoonotic coronaviruses (CoVs) are significant threats to global health, as exemplified by the recent emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)1. Host immune responses to CoV are complex and regulated in part through antiviral interferons. However, the interferon-stimulated gene products that inhibit CoV are not well characterized2. Here, we show that interferon-inducible lymphocyte antigen 6 complex, locus E (LY6E) potently restricts cellular infection by multiple CoVs, including SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Mechanistic studies revealed that LY6E inhibits CoV entry into cells by interfering with spike protein-mediated membrane fusion. Importantly, mice lacking Ly6e in hematopoietic cells were highly susceptible to murine CoV infection. Exacerbated viral pathogenesis in Ly6e knockout mice was accompanied by loss of hepatic and splenic immune cells and reduction in global antiviral gene pathways. Accordingly, we found that Ly6e directly protects primary B cells and dendritic cells from murine CoV infection. Our results demonstrate that LY6E is a critical antiviral immune effector that controls CoV infection and pathogenesis. These findings advance our understanding of immune-mediated control of CoV in vitro and in vivo, knowledge that could help inform strategies to combat infection by emerging CoV.

negative: SARS-CoV-2: an Emerging Coronavirus that Causes a Global Threat An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus, currently designated as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), was reported recently. However, as SARS-CoV-2 is an emerging virus, we know little about it. In this review, we summarize the key events occurred during the early stage of SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, the basic characteristics of the pathogen, the signs and symptoms of the infected patients as well as the possible transmission pathways of the virus. Furthermore, we also review the current knowledge on the origin and evolution of the SARS-CoV-2. We highlight bats as the potential natural reservoir and pangolins as the possible intermediate host of the virus, but their roles are waiting for further investigation. Finally, the advances in the development of chemotherapeutic options are also briefly summarized.

negative: Identification of cellular proteome using two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis in ST cells infected with transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus BACKGROUND: Transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus (TGEV) is an enteropathogenic coronavirus that causes diarrhea in pigs, which is correlated with high morbidity and mortality in suckling piglets. Information remains limited about the comparative protein expression of host cells in response to TGEV infection. In this study, cellular protein response to TGEV infection in swine testes (ST) cells was analyzed, using the proteomic method of two-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis (2D DIGE) coupled with MALDI-TOF-TOF/MS identification. RESULTS: 33 differentially expressed protein spots, of which 23 were up-regulated and 10 were down-regulated were identified. All the protein spots were successfully identified. The identified proteins were involved in the regulation of essential processes such as cellular structure and integrity, RNA processing, protein biosynthesis and modification, vesicle transport, signal transduction, and the mitochondrial pathway. Western blot analysis was used to validate the changes of alpha tubulin, keratin 19, and prohibitin during TGEV infection. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, we have performed the first analysis of the proteomic changes in host cell during TGEV infection. 17 altered cellular proteins that differentially expressed in TGEV infection were identified. The present study provides protein-related information that should be useful for understanding the host cell response to TGEV infection and the underlying mechanism of TGEV replication and pathogenicity.

negative: The contribution of dry indoor built environment on the spread of Coronavirus: Data from various Indian states Coronavirus spread is more serious in urban metropolitan cities compared to rural areas. It is observed from the data on the infection rate available in the various sources that the cold and dry conditions accelerate the spread of coronavirus. In the present work, the existing theory of respiratory droplet drying is used to propose the mechanism of virus spread under various climates and the indoor environment conditions which plays a greater role in the virus spread. This concept is assessed using four major parameters such as population density, climate severity, the volume of indoor spaces, and air-conditioning usage which affect the infection spread and mortality using the data available for various states of India. Further, it is analysed using the data from various states in India along with the respective climatic conditions. It is found that under some indoor scenarios, the coronaviruses present in the respiratory droplets become active due to size reduction that occurs both in sessile and airborne droplet nuclei causing an increase in the spread. Understanding this mechanism will be very useful to take the necessary steps to reduce the rate of transmission by initiating corrective measures and maintaining the required conditions in the indoor built environment.

negative: ELM—the database of eukaryotic linear motifs Linear motifs are short, evolutionarily plastic components of regulatory proteins and provide low-affinity interaction interfaces. These compact modules play central roles in mediating every aspect of the regulatory functionality of the cell. They are particularly prominent in mediating cell signaling, controlling protein turnover and directing protein localization. Given their importance, our understanding of motifs is surprisingly limited, largely as a result of the difficulty of discovery, both experimentally and computationally. The Eukaryotic Linear Motif (ELM) resource at http://elm.eu.org provides the biological community with a comprehensive database of known experimentally validated motifs, and an exploratory tool to discover putative linear motifs in user-submitted protein sequences. The current update of the ELM database comprises 1800 annotated motif instances representing 170 distinct functional classes, including approximately 500 novel instances and 24 novel classes. Several older motif class entries have been also revisited, improving annotation and adding novel instances. Furthermore, addition of full-text search capabilities, an enhanced interface and simplified batch download has improved the overall accessibility of the ELM data. The motif discovery portion of the ELM resource has added conservation, and structural attributes have been incorporated to aid users to discriminate biologically relevant motifs from stochastically occurring non-functional instances.

negative: The science commons in health research: structure, function, and value The “science commons,” knowledge that is widely accessible at low or no cost, is a uniquely important input to scientific advance and cumulative technological innovation. It is primarily, although not exclusively, funded by government and nonprofit sources. Much of it is produced at academic research centers, although some academic science is proprietary and some privately funded R&D enters the science commons. Science in general aspires to Mertonian norms of openness, universality, objectivity, and critical inquiry. The science commons diverges from proprietary science primarily in being open and being very broadly available. These features make the science commons particularly valuable for advancing knowledge, for training innovators who will ultimately work in both public and private sectors, and in providing a common stock of knowledge upon which all players—both public and private—can draw readily. Open science plays two important roles that proprietary R&D cannot: it enables practical benefits even in the absence of profitable markets for goods and services, and its lays a shared foundation for subsequent private R&D. The history of genomics in the period 1992–2004, covering two periods when genomic startup firms attracted significant private R&D investment, illustrates these features of how a science commons contributes value. Commercial interest in genomics was intense during this period. Fierce competition between private sector and public sector genomics programs was highly visible. Seemingly anomalous behavior, such as private firms funding “open science,” can be explained by unusual business dynamics between established firms wanting to preserve a robust science commons to prevent startup firms from limiting established firms’ freedom to operate. Deliberate policies to create and protect a large science commons were pursued by nonprofit and government funders of genomics research, such as the Wellcome Trust and National Institutes of Health. These policies were crucial to keeping genomic data and research tools widely available at low cost.

negative: A Rapid and Low-Cost PCR Thermal Cycler for Infectious Disease Diagnostics The ability to make rapid diagnosis of infectious diseases broadly available in a portable, low-cost format would mark a great step forward in global health. Many molecular diagnostic assays are developed based on using thermal cyclers to carry out polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and reverse-transcription PCR for DNA and RNA amplification and detection, respectively. Unfortunately, most commercial thermal cyclers are expensive and need continuous electrical power supply, so they are not suitable for uses in low-resource settings. We have previously reported a low-cost and simple approach to amplify DNA using vacuum insulated stainless steel thermoses food cans, which we have named it thermos thermal cycler or TTC. Here, we describe the use of an improved set up to enable the detection of viral RNA targets by reverse-transcription PCR (RT-PCR), thus expanding the TTC’s ability to identify highly infectious, RNA virus-based diseases in low resource settings. The TTC was successful in demonstrating high-speed and sensitive detection of DNA or RNA targets of sexually transmitted diseases, HIV/AIDS, Ebola hemorrhagic fever, and dengue fever. Our innovative TTC costs less than $200 to build and has a capacity of at least eight tubes. In terms of speed, the TTC’s performance exceeded that of commercial thermal cyclers tested. When coupled with low-cost endpoint detection technologies such as nucleic acid lateral-flow assay or a cell-phone-based fluorescence detector, the TTC will increase the availability of on-site molecular diagnostics in low-resource settings.

negative: Asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2): Facts and myths Abstract Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (formerly known as the 2019 novel coronavirus [2019-nCoV]) in Wuhan, China in December 2019, which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), more than 75,000 cases have been reported in 32 countries/regions, resulting in more than 2000 deaths worldwide. Despite the fact that most COVID-19 cases and mortalities were reported in China, the WHO has declared this outbreak as the sixth public health emergency of international concern. The COVID-19 can present as an asymptomatic carrier state, acute respiratory disease, and pneumonia. Adults represent the population with the highest infection rate; however, neonates, children, and elderly patients can also be infected by SARS-CoV-2. In addition, nosocomial infection of hospitalized patients and healthcare workers, and viral transmission from asymptomatic carriers are possible. The most common finding on chest imaging among patients with pneumonia was ground-glass opacity with bilateral involvement. Severe cases are more likely to be older patients with underlying comorbidities compared to mild cases. Indeed, age and disease severity may be correlated with the outcomes of COVID-19. To date, effective treatment is lacking; however, clinical trials investigating the efficacy of several agents, including remdesivir and chloroquine, are underway in China. Currently, effective infection control intervention is the only way to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

negative: COVID-19: Disease, management, treatment, and social impact Abstract COVID-19 was originated from Wuhan city of Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since then it has spread in more than 210 countries and territories. It is a viral disease due to the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. The patients show flu-like symptoms with a dry cough, sore throat, high fever, and breathing problems. The disease due to SARS-CoV-2 was named as COVID-19. About 2.2 million people have been infected with more than 0.15 million deaths globally. The United States of America is the most affected country with the highest patients of about 0.7 million. Despite great efforts, there is no treatment of this disease. However, prevention and management are the best options. This article describes SARS-CoV-2, disease, prevention and management, treatment and social impact on society. It was analyzed that a combination of antiviral drugs with hydroxyl-chloroquine and azithromycin (with the consultation of a medical practitioner) may be the best option to treat the patients, depending on the patient's conditions and symptoms. However, Unani therapy may be useful along with allopathic treatment. It is urgently advised and requested that all the persons should follow the preventive measures, managements and quarantine strictly without any religious discrepancy otherwise the situation may be the worst. Also, there is an urgent requirement to educate our new generation for science and technology to fight against any such disaster in future; if any. There is no need to be panic and proper prevention and management are essential to combat this disease. This article may be useful to create awareness among the public, to prevent, manage and treat COVID-19.

negative: Identification of the hyper-variable genomic hotspot for the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2

negative: From SARS to Avian Influenza: The Role of International Factors in China's Approach to Infectious Disease Control Abstract Background Over the past decades global environmental change, globalization, urbanization, and the rise in movement of people have increased the risk for pandemic disease outbreaks. As environmental exposures do not respect state borders, a globalist concept of global health response has developed, which requires transparency and cooperation for coordinated responses to disease outbreaks. Countries that avoid cooperation on health issues for social or political reasons can endanger the global community. Objectives The aim of this study was to examine the rapid change in China's infectious disease policy between 2000 and 2013, from actively rejecting the assistance of international health experts during the HIV/AIDS and severe acute respiratory syndrome crises to following best-practice disease response policies and cooperating with international health actors during the 2013 avian influenza outbreak. Methods Using international relations theory, I examined whether international political factors had a major influence on this change. Using the case studies of international reputation, socialization with international organizations, and the securitization of infectious disease, this study examined the influence of international and domestic pressures on Chinese infectious disease policy. Findings Although international relations theory, especially theories popular in global health diplomacy literature, provide valuable insight into the role of international factors and foreign policy interests in China's changing approach to infectious disease control, it cannot provide viable explanations without considering the domestic interests of the Chinese government. Conclusion Analysis of state responses to infectious disease using international relations theories must consider domestic political factors.

negative: Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak Backgrounds An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia hit a major city of China, Wuhan, December 2019 and subsequently reached other provinces/regions of China and countries. We present estimates of the basic reproduction number, R0, of 2019-nCoV in the early phase of the outbreak. Methods Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 24, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (γ), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 2.24 (95%CI: 1.96-2.55) to 3.58 (95%CI: 2.89-4.39) associated with 8-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. We demonstrated that changes in reporting rate substantially affect estimates of R0. Conclusion The mean estimate of R0 for the 2019-nCoV ranges from 2.24 to 3.58, and significantly larger than 1. Our findings indicate the potential of 2019-nCoV to cause outbreaks.

negative: Teicoplanin potently blocks the cell entry of 2019-nCoV Since December 2019, the outbreak of a new coronavirus, named 2019-nCoV, has greatly threatened the public health in China and raised great concerns worldwide. No specific treatment for this infection is currently available. We previously reported that teicoplanin, a glycopeptide antibiotic which has routinely been used in the clinic to treat bacterial infection with low toxicity, significantly inhibits the invasion of cells by Ebola virus, SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, via specifically inhibiting the activity of cathepsin L. Here, we tested the efficacy of teicoplanin against 2019-nCoV virus infection and found that teicoplanin potently prevents the entrance of 2019-nCoV-Spike-pseudoviruses into the cytoplasm, with an IC50 of 1.66 μM. Although the inhibitory effect upon the replication of wildtype viruses ex vivo and in vivo remains to be determined, our preliminary result indicates that the potential antiviral activity of teicoplanin could be applied for the treatment of 2019-nCoV virus infection.

negative: Infección por SARS-CoV2 en pacientes con trasplante de órgano sólido: Cinco preguntas importantes Es grande la expectativa que genera en todos los servicios de salud del mundo la rápida expansión del SARS-CoV2 (Coronavirus 2 del Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo y Grave), agente etiológico de la Enfermedad Infec-ciosa por Coronavirus del año 2019, COVID-19 Por tratarse de una enfermedad emergente es poco lo que se conoce sobre su comportamiento en los humanos, lo que lleva a múltiples interrogantes al momento de tomar decisiones en la práctica clínica Hasta el momento, las estrategias para enfrentar esta pandemia se basan en la experiencia de los países que han sido epicentro del brote infeccioso y en la evidencia recopilada durante el manejo de otros coronavirus en años anteriores (SARS-CoV en el año 2002 y MERS-CoV en 2012) La falta de información contundente y unificada ha dado lugar a especulaciones y a suposiciones, especialmente relacionadas con la atención del COVID-19 en poblaciones consideradas de alto riesgo, como son los pacientes crónicamente inmunosuprimidos postrasplante A través de esta revisión narrativa de la literatura, más allá de dar la opinión de los autores, se pretende organizar de manera juiciosa los documentos hasta el momento publicados, y responder, basados en datos reales, cinco de las preguntas más importantes que surgen en el día a día durante el manejo de los pacientes trasplantadosThere is a high expectation generated by the rapid expansion of SARS-CoV2 (Severe Acute Respira-tory Syndrome related to Coronavirus 2), which is the etiological agent of the Coronavirus Infectious Disease 2019, COVID-19 As an emerging disease, little is known about its behavior in humans, which generates multiple questions when making decisions in clinical practice So far, the strategies to face this pandemic are based on the experience of the countries that have been the epicenter of the infectious outbreak and on the evidence collected during the management of other past coronavirus infections such as (SARS-CoV in 2002 and MERS-CoV in 2012) The lack of unified and robust information has given rise to speculation and assumptions primarily related to the care and management of COVID-19 in populations considered at high risk of infection, such as chronically immunosuppressed patients after transplantation Beyond giving the opinion from the authors, this narrative review tries to organize the documents published so far and to answer five of the most critical questions that arise every day during the management of transplant patients based on real data

negative: A fast and simple one-step duplex PCR assay for canine distemper virus (CDV) and canine coronavirus (CCoV) detection The one-step polymerase chain reaction (one-step PCR) detection assay is an innovative PCR detection method, eliminating nucleic acid extraction steps, in which samples can be directly added to PCR reagents for testing. For simultaneous detection of CDV and CCoV, a sensitive and specific one-step duplex PCR (one-step dPCR) assay was developed with two pairs of primers that were designed based on H and M gene sequences of CDV and CCoV, respectively. The one-step dPCR with optimized detection conditions has high specificity and sensitivity; independent sequencing assays further verified these results.

negative: One Health - a strategy for resilience in a changing arctic. The circumpolar north is uniquely vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. While international Arctic collaboration on health has enhanced partnerships and advanced the health of inhabitants, significant challenges lie ahead. One Health is an approach that considers the connections between the environment, plant, animal and human health. Understanding this is increasingly critical in assessing the impact of global climate change on the health of Arctic inhabitants. The effects of climate change are complex and difficult to predict with certainty. Health risks include changes in the distribution of infectious disease, expansion of zoonotic diseases and vectors, changing migration patterns, impacts on food security and changes in water availability and quality, among others. A regional network of diverse stakeholder and transdisciplinary specialists from circumpolar nations and Indigenous groups can advance the understanding of complex climate-driven health risks and provide community-based strategies for early identification, prevention and adaption of health risks in human, animals and environment. We propose a regional One Health approach for assessing interactions at the Arctic human-animal-environment interface to enhance the understanding of, and response to, the complexities of climate change on the health of the Arctic inhabitants.

negative: SARS virus: The beginning of the unraveling of a new coronavirus Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus caused a severe outbreak in several regions of the world in 2003. The virus is a novel coronavirus, which may have an origin in wild animals such as civet cats in southern China. Its genome structure, gene expression pattern and protein profiles are similar to those of other coronaviruses. However, distinct patterns of several open reading frames in the SARS virus genome may contribute to its severe virulence. The potential mutability of the coronavirus genome may pose problems in the control of future SARS outbreaks. The mechanism of SARS pathogenesis may involve both direct viral cytocidal effects on the target cells and immune-mediated mechanisms. The life cycle of the SARS virus is largely unknown; however, based on the analogy with other coronaviruses, several potential targets for antiviral development are identified. Vaccines offer an important preventive measure for possible future recurrences of SARS, but the prospect for their development is still unknown because of the uncertainty regarding the role of immune responses in SARS virus pathogenesis. The comparative studies of other coronaviruses offer insights into the understanding of SARS virus.

negative: Earth Day: 50 Years of Continuity and Change in Environmentalism In April 1970, the first Earth Day engaged millions of people in thousands of events around the US. Those events reflected the emergence of a new form of environmentalism. Many of the themes present 50 years ago persist, but in the US environmental issues have become more politically polarized, and it is unclear whether such value conflicts will persist in the future.

negative: Is There a Doctor Onboard? Medical Emergencies at 40,000 Feet It is estimated 2.75 billion people travel aboard commercial airlines every year and 44,000 in-flight medical emergencies occur worldwide each year. Wilderness medicine requires a commonsense and improvisational approach to medical issues. A sudden call for assistance in the austere and unfamiliar surroundings of an airliner cabin may present the responding medical professional with a “wilderness medicine” experience. From resource management to equipment, this article sheds light on the unique conditions, challenges, and constraints of the flight environment.

negative: The effects of weather on daily emergency ambulance service demand in Taipei: a comparison with Hong Kong Numerous studies have examined the effects of weather on emergency ambulance service (EAS) demand. Given Taipei’s unique physical and social environments, empirical evidence collected from other regions may not be applicable. Collecting more information about the characteristics of vulnerable groups and the effects of weather could help the EAS managing authority in formulating cost-effective EAS policies. This study aims to look at the effects of weather on EAS demand in Taipei and to make a comparison with Hong Kong, which is also an Asian city and has a similar cultural context. The study analyzed over 370,000 EAS usage records from the Taipei City Fire Department. These records were aggregated into time series data according to patients’ characteristics and then regressed on meteorological data via multivariate forward regression. The effect size differences of the variance explained by different groups of EAS users’ regression models were compared. Afterward, the results of the regression analysis from Taipei were compared with those from a Hong Kong study. Elderly and critical patients in both cities showed significantly more sensitivity to weather than other patients. Further analysis showed that non-trauma cases were related to weather in Taipei. Although both cities had similar results, the Taipei study clearly showed that elderly and critical patients were more sensitive to weather than other patient subgroups. Health education programs should focus on the vulnerable groups identified in this study in order to increase their awareness and help them protect themselves before the onset of adverse weather conditions. By generating results that are directly applicable to Taipei, the formulation of inappropriate EAS policies can be prevented.

negative: Active surveillance for suspected COVID-19 cases in inpatients with information technology

negative: Viral Innate Immune Evasion and the Pathogenesis of Emerging RNA Virus Infections Positive-sense single-stranded RNA (+ssRNA) viruses comprise many (re-)emerging human pathogens that pose a public health problem. Our innate immune system and, in particular, the interferon response form the important first line of defence against these viruses. Given their genetic flexibility, these viruses have therefore developed multiple strategies to evade the innate immune response in order to optimize their replication capacity. Already many molecular mechanisms of innate immune evasion by +ssRNA viruses have been identified. However, research addressing the effect of host innate immune evasion on the pathology caused by viral infections is less prevalent in the literature, though very relevant and interesting. Since interferons have been implicated in inflammatory diseases and immunopathology in addition to their protective role in infection, antagonizing the immune response may have an ambiguous effect on the clinical outcome of the viral disease. Therefore, this review discusses what is currently known about the role of interferons and host immune evasion in the pathogenesis of emerging coronaviruses, alphaviruses and flaviviruses.

negative: How related is SARS-CoV-2 to other coronaviruses?

negative: Health response to Hajj mass gathering from emergency perspective, narrative review Hajj is a unique gathering with Mecca and Kaaba being spiritually important to many faiths across the globe, especially Muslims. This is because of the proclamation of the prophet's father, Ibrahaam, when he called all mankind to perform Hajj. That is why all Muslims on Earth feel that they have to visit Mecca and Kaaba on a specific date and time, and that is the reason this small location hosts one of the largest human gatherings in the world. Hajj is one of the five pillars of Islam that every financially and physically able Muslim must perform once in his/her lifetime. For 14 centuries countless millions of Muslim men and women from the four corners of the earth have undertaken pilgrimage to Mecca. In conclusion this review article confirm that Hajj is oldest and largest mass gathering in all mankind and there is some issues influence the health response such as size of gathering. diversity of population, climate and health facilities around hajj site, also we discuss the infectious and non infectious related illness in hajj and their prevention methods.

negative: What are the risks of COVID-19 infection in pregnant women?

negative: Actualización de la situación epidemiológica de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 en España. Comentarios a las recomendaciones de manejo de la infección en pediatría

negative: COVID-19: a new work-related disease threatening healthcare workers

negative: Coronavirus infections and immune responses Coronaviruses (CoVs) are by far the largest group of known positive‐sense RNA viruses having an extensive range of natural hosts. In the past few decades, newly evolved Coronaviruses have posed a global threat to public health. The immune response is essential to control and eliminate CoV infections, however, maladjusted immune responses may result in immunopathology and impaired pulmonary gas exchange. Gaining a deeper understanding of the interaction between Coronaviruses and the innate immune systems of the hosts may shed light on the development and persistence of inflammation in the lungs and hopefully can reduce the risk of lung inflammation caused by CoVs. In this review, we provide an update on CoV infections and relevant diseases, particularly the host defense against CoV‐induced inflammation of lung tissue, as well as the role of the innate immune system in the pathogenesis and clinical treatment.

negative: Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR BACKGROUND: The ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for public health laboratories as virus isolates are unavailable while there is growing evidence that the outbreak is more widespread than initially thought, and international spread through travellers does already occur. AIM: We aimed to develop and deploy robust diagnostic methodology for use in public health laboratory settings without having virus material available. METHODS: Here we present a validated diagnostic workflow for 2019-nCoV, its design relying on close genetic relatedness of 2019-nCoV with SARS coronavirus, making use of synthetic nucleic acid technology. RESULTS: The workflow reliably detects 2019-nCoV, and further discriminates 2019-nCoV from SARS-CoV. Through coordination between academic and public laboratories, we confirmed assay exclusivity based on 297 original clinical specimens containing a full spectrum of human respiratory viruses. Control material is made available through European Virus Archive – Global (EVAg), a European Union infrastructure project. CONCLUSION: The present study demonstrates the enormous response capacity achieved through coordination of academic and public laboratories in national and European research networks.

negative: Revealing COVID-19 Transmission by SARS-CoV-2 Genome Sequencing and Agent Based Modelling Community transmission of the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is a major public health concern that remains difficult to assess. We present a genomic survey of SARS-CoV-2 from a during the first 10 weeks of COVID-19 activity in New South Wales, Australia. Transmission events were monitored prospectively during the critical period of implementation of national control measures. SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced from 209 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 infection between January and March 2020. Only a quarter of cases appeared to be locally acquired and genomic-based estimates of local transmission rates were concordant with predictions from a computational agent-based model. This convergent assessment indicates that genome sequencing provides key information to inform public health action and has improved our understanding of the COVID-19 evolution from outbreak to epidemic.

negative: CO.ME.T.A. -- covid-19 media textual analysis. A dashboard for media monitoring The focus of this paper is to trace how mass media, particularly newspapers, have addressed the issues about the containment of contagion or the explanation of epidemiological evolution. We propose an interactive dashboard: CO.ME.T.A.. During crises it is important to shape the best communication strategies in order to respond to critical situations. In this regard, it is important to monitor the information that mass media and social platforms convey. The dashboard allows to explore the mining of contents extracted and study the lexical structure that links the main discussion topics. The dashboard merges together four methods: text mining, sentiment analysis, textual network analysis and latent topic models. Results obtained on a subset of documents show not only a health-related semantic dimension, but it also extends to social-economic dimensions.

negative: Effects of Leachates from UV-Weathered Microplastic in Cell-Based Bioassays. Standard ecotoxicological testing of microplastic does not provide insight into the influence that environmental weathering by, e.g., UV light has on related effects. In this study, we leached chemicals from plastic into artificial sea water during simulated UV-induced weathering. We tested largely additive-free pre-production polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polypropylene and polystyrene and two types of plastic obtained from electronic equipment as positive controls. Leachates were concentrated by solid-phase extraction and dosed into cell-based bioassays that cover i) cytotoxicity; ii) activation of metabolic enzymes via binding to the arylhydrocarbon receptor (AhR) and the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPARγ); iii) specific, receptor-mediated effects (estrogenicity, ER); and iv) adaptive response to oxidative stress (AREc32). LC-HRMS analysis was used to identify possible chain-scission products of polymer degradation, which were then tested in AREc32 and PPARγ. Explicit activation of all assays by the positive controls provided proof-of-concept of the experimental setup to demonstrate effects of chemicals liberated during weathering. All plastic leachates activated the oxidative stress response, in most cases with increased induction by UV-treated samples compared to dark controls. For PPARγ, polyethylene-specific effects were partially explained by the detected dicarboxylic acids. Since the pre-production plastic showed low effects often in the range of the blanks future studies should investigate implications of weathering on end consumer products containing additives.

negative: Climate Change The battle lines that have been drawn between climate change believers and deniers could not be more distinct. However, outside of the halls of power and beyond diplomatic chatter there is a subtle, if imperceptible shift heralding a potentially more impactful climate awakening. Those favoring grandiose solutions to the very real challenges posed by climate change will find no victory with the advent of true market-based solutions to climate risk. These shifts in the market are brought forth without presidential decree and signing ceremonies. Rather, they are brought about the same way each economic revolution occurs—with the inexorable drive among entrepreneurs, engineers, planners and risk managers tackling the immediacy of problems, with practical solutions for which the market is willing to pay.

negative: The Molecular Biology of Coronaviruses Abstract Coronaviruses are large, enveloped RNA viruses of both medical and veterinary importance. Interest in this viral family has intensified in the past few years as a result of the identification of a newly emerged coronavirus as the causative agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). At the molecular level, coronaviruses employ a variety of unusual strategies to accomplish a complex program of gene expression. Coronavirus replication entails ribosome frameshifting during genome translation, the synthesis of both genomic and multiple subgenomic RNA species, and the assembly of progeny virions by a pathway that is unique among enveloped RNA viruses. Progress in the investigation of these processes has been enhanced by the development of reverse genetic systems, an advance that was heretofore obstructed by the enormous size of the coronavirus genome. This review summarizes both classical and contemporary discoveries in the study of the molecular biology of these infectious agents, with particular emphasis on the nature and recognition of viral receptors, viral RNA synthesis, and the molecular interactions governing virion assembly.

negative: Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access) between environmental drivers/exposures and disease detection. Key areas of future research include: disentangling the complex effects of weather/climate on each exposure-health outcome pathway (e.g. person-to-person vs environment-to-person), and linking weather data to individual cases longitudinally.

negative: Social scientific knowledge in times of crisis: What climate change can learn from coronavirus (and vice versa)

negative: Weathering the Cytokine Storm in COVID-19: Therapeutic Implications BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) recently emerged in Wuhan, Hubei-China, as responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and then spread rapidly worldwide. While most individuals remain asymptomatic or develop only mild symptoms, approximately 5% develop severe forms of COVID-19 characterized by acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multiple-organ failure (MOF) that usually require intensive-care support and often yield a poor prognosis. SUMMARY: The pathophysiology of COVID-19 is far from being completely understood, and the lack of effective treatments leads to a sense of urgency to develop new therapeutic strategies based on pathophysiological assumptions. The exaggerated cytokine release in response to viral infection, a condition known as cytokine release syndrome (CRS) or cytokine storm, is emerging as the mechanism leading to ARDS and MOF in COVID-19, thus endorsing the hypothesis that properly timed anti-inflammatory therapeutic strategies could improve patients' clinical outcomes and prognosis. Key Messages: The objective of this article is to explore and comment on the potential role of the promising immunomodulatory therapies using pharmacological and nonpharmacological approaches to overcome the dysregulated proinflammatory response in COVID-19.

negative: Chapter One Parasites of seabirds: A survey of effects and ecological implications Abstract Parasites are ubiquitous in the environment, and can cause negative effects in their host species. Importantly, seabirds can be long-lived and cross multiple continents within a single annual cycle, thus their exposure to parasites may be greater than other taxa. With changing climatic conditions expected to influence parasite distribution and abundance, understanding current level of infection, transmission pathways and population-level impacts are integral aspects for predicting ecosystem changes, and how climate change will affect seabird species. In particular, a range of micro- and macro-parasites can affect seabird species, including ticks, mites, helminths, viruses and bacteria in gulls, terns, skimmers, skuas, auks and selected phalaropes (Charadriiformes), tropicbirds (Phaethontiformes), penguins (Sphenisciformes), tubenoses (Procellariiformes), cormorants, frigatebirds, boobies, gannets (Suliformes), and pelicans (Pelecaniformes) and marine seaducks and loons (Anseriformes and Gaviiformes). We found that the seabird orders of Charadriiformes and Procellariiformes were most represented in the parasite-seabird literature. While negative effects were reported in seabirds associated with all the parasite groups, most effects have been studied in adults with less information known about how parasites may affect chicks and fledglings. We found studies most often reported on negative effects in seabird hosts during the breeding season, although this is also the time when most seabird research occurs. Many studies report that external factors such as condition of the host, pollution, and environmental conditions can influence the effects of parasites, thus cumulative effects likely play a large role in how parasites influence seabirds at both the individual and population level. With an increased understanding of parasite-host dynamics it is clear that major environmental changes, often those associated with human activities, can directly or indirectly affect the distribution, abundance, or virulence of parasites and pathogens.

negative: Development of a Portable, Ultra-Rapid and Ultra-Sensitive Cell-Based Biosensor for the Direct Detection of the SARS-CoV-2 S1 Spike Protein Antigen One of the key challenges of the recent COVID-19 pandemic is the ability to accurately estimate the number of infected individuals, particularly asymptomatic and/or early-stage patients. We herewith report the proof-of-concept development of a biosensor able to detect the SARS-CoV-2 S1 spike protein expressed on the surface of the virus. The biosensor is based on membrane-engineered mammalian cells bearing the human chimeric spike S1 antibody. We demonstrate that the attachment of the protein to the membrane-bound antibodies resulted in a selective and considerable change in the cellular bioelectric properties measured by means of a Bioelectric Recognition Assay. The novel biosensor provided results in an ultra-rapid manner (3 min), with a detection limit of 1 fg/mL and a semi-linear range of response between 10 fg and 1 μg/mL. In addition, no cross-reactivity was observed against the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein. Furthermore, the biosensor was configured as a ready-to-use platform, including a portable read-out device operated via smartphone/tablet. In this way, we demonstrate that the novel biosensor can be potentially applied for the mass screening of SARS-CoV-2 surface antigens without prior sample processing, therefore offering a possible solution for the timely monitoring and eventual control of the global coronavirus pandemic.

negative: A Phylogeny-Based Global Nomenclature System and Automated Annotation Tool for H1 Hemagglutinin Genes from Swine Influenza A Viruses The H1 subtype of influenza A viruses (IAVs) has been circulating in swine since the 1918 human influenza pandemic. Over time, and aided by further introductions from nonswine hosts, swine H1 viruses have diversified into three genetic lineages. Due to limited global data, these H1 lineages were named based on colloquial context, leading to a proliferation of inconsistent regional naming conventions. In this study, we propose rigorous phylogenetic criteria to establish a globally consistent nomenclature of swine H1 virus hemagglutinin (HA) evolution. These criteria applied to a data set of 7,070 H1 HA sequences led to 28 distinct clades as the basis for the nomenclature. We developed and implemented a web-accessible annotation tool that can assign these biologically informative categories to new sequence data. The annotation tool assigned the combined data set of 7,070 H1 sequences to the correct clade more than 99% of the time. Our analyses indicated that 87% of the swine H1 viruses from 2010 to the present had HAs that belonged to 7 contemporary cocirculating clades. Our nomenclature and web-accessible classification tool provide an accurate method for researchers, diagnosticians, and health officials to assign clade designations to HA sequences. The tool can be updated readily to track evolving nomenclature as new clades emerge, ensuring continued relevance. A common global nomenclature facilitates comparisons of IAVs infecting humans and pigs, within and between regions, and can provide insight into the diversity of swine H1 influenza virus and its impact on vaccine strain selection, diagnostic reagents, and test performance, thereby simplifying communication of such data. IMPORTANCE A fundamental goal in the biological sciences is the definition of groups of organisms based on evolutionary history and the naming of those groups. For influenza A viruses (IAVs) in swine, understanding the hemagglutinin (HA) genetic lineage of a circulating strain aids in vaccine antigen selection and allows for inferences about vaccine efficacy. Previous reporting of H1 virus HA in swine relied on colloquial names, frequently with incriminating and stigmatizing geographic toponyms, making comparisons between studies challenging. To overcome this, we developed an adaptable nomenclature using measurable criteria for historical and contemporary evolutionary patterns of H1 global swine IAVs. We also developed a web-accessible tool that classifies viruses according to this nomenclature. This classification system will aid agricultural production and pandemic preparedness through the identification of important changes in swine IAVs and provides terminology enabling discussion of swine IAVs in a common context among animal and human health initiatives.

negative: Environmental Impact, Concept and Measurement of Abstract Environments on Earth are always changing, and living systems evolve within them. For most of their history, human beings did the same. But in the last two centuries, humans have become the planet's dominant species, changing and impoverishing the environment for all life on Earth and even decimating humans' own cultural diversity. Contemporary cultural worldviews that have severed humans' ancient connections with the natural world, along with consumption and population growth, have deepened this impoverishment. Understanding, measuring, and managing human environmental impacts – the most important of which is the impoverishment of living systems – is the 21st century's greatest challenge.

negative: COVID-19 Tragic Pandemic: Concerns over Unintentional “Directed Accelerated Evolution” of Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and Introducing a Modified Treatment Method for ARDS Global health authorities are trying to work out the current status of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and explore methods to reduce the rate of its transmission to healthy individuals. In this viewpoint we provide insights concerning how health care professionals can unintentionally shift the novel coronavirus type to more drug-resistant forms. It is worth noting that viruses usually have different sensitivities to physical and chemical damaging agents such antiviral drugs, UV and heat ranging from extremely sensitive (ES) to extremely resistant (ER) based on a bell-shaped curve. Given this consideration, the widespread infection of people with such ER viruses would be a real disaster. Here, we introduce a modified treatment method for COVID-19-associated pneumonia. In this proposed method, COVID-19 patients will receive a single dose of 100, 180 or 250 mSv X-ray radiation that is less than the maximum annual radiation dose of the residents of high background radiation areas of Ramsar that is up to 260 mSv. In contrast with antiviral drugs, a single dose of either 100, 180 or 250 mSv of low LET X-rays cannot exert a significant selective pressure on the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and hence does not lead to directed accelerated evolution of these viruses. Moreover, Low Dose Radiation (LDR) has the capacity of modulating excessive inflammatory responses, regulating lymphocyte counts, and controling bacterial co-infections in patients with COVID-19.

negative: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature authored by medical professionals regarding US biomedicine's role in responding to climate change. Extant literature illustrates a substantive impact on human health because of climate change. Despite this, discussions of the ethical and policymaking role of US health care's response to this problem are underdeveloped within peer-reviewed literature indexed in core medical databases. We conducted a systematic literature review in August 2017 at Vanderbilt University Medical Center of the following medical, business and policy databases to examine the state of inquiry on this topic: PubMed, CINAHL, PsychINFO, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, Business Source Complete, Greylit.org, LexisNexis Academic, Proquest Dissertations and Theses Global. An initial sample of n = 4434 rendered n = 75 articles precisely addressing this question following a two-tiered systematic examination of content. US medical professionals were most concerned by the health impacts of air pollution and respiratory complications, extreme weather events, and rising infectious/vector-borne diseases. They were least concerned by rising rates of migration and stresses to sanitation systems. Medical professionals took a broadly proactive stance to the issue, highlighting the need to implement education and advocacy strategies. Politics was the least pertinent motivation for climate change-related recommendations. Furthermore, partnerships between health care and public agencies were identified as holding the greatest potential for meaningful change. Mitigation approaches were slightly more common than adaptation approaches. We conclude that, while the enthusiasm of the medical community is commendable, efforts to address climate change in US health care are overly fractured, and lack the necessary expertise for efficaciousness.

negative: Disaster Risk Management This chapter illustrates disaster and risk management. The disaster management includes hazard management and disaster issue management. Disaster risk management relies on the institution, policy, and scientific and technological progress for disaster reduction. Improving disaster risk management capacity is the key point to improving the utilization efficiency and effectiveness of disaster reduction resources, which is also an important guarantee for disaster risk reduction.

negative: Metformin and SARS-CoV-2: mechanistic lessons on air pollution to weather the cytokine/thrombotic storm in COVID-19 Pathological signaling in the lung induced by particulate matter (PM) air pollution partially overlaps with that provoked by COVID-19, the pandemic disease caused by infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Metformin is capable of suppressing one of the molecular triggers of the proinflammatory and prothrombotic processes of urban PM air pollution, namely the mitochondrial ROS/Ca(2+) release-activated Ca(2+) channels (CRAC)/IL-6 cascade. Given the linkage between mitochondrial functionality, ion channels, and inflamm-aging, the ability of metformin to target mitochondrial electron transport and prevent ROS/CRAC-mediated IL-6 release might illuminate new therapeutic avenues to quell the raging of the cytokine and thrombotic-like storms that are the leading causes of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in older people. The incorporation of infection rates, severity and lethality of SARS-CoV-2 infections as new outcomes of metformin usage in elderly populations at risk of developing severe COVID-19, together with the assessment of bronchial/serological titers of inflammatory cytokines and D-dimers, could provide a novel mechanistic basis for the consideration of metformin as a therapeutic strategy against the inflammatory and thrombotic states underlying the gerolavic traits of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

negative: First genome sequences of buffalo coronavirus from water buffaloes in Bangladesh We report the complete genome sequences of a buffalo coronavirus (BufCoV HKU26) detected from the faecal samples of two domestic water buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis) in Bangladesh. They possessed 98–99% nucleotide identities to bovine coronavirus (BCoV) genomes, supporting BufCoV HKU26 as a member of Betacoronavirus 1. Nevertheless, BufCoV HKU26 possessed distinct accessory proteins between spike and envelope compared to BCoV. Sugar-binding residues in the N-terminal domain of S protein in BCoV are conserved in BufCoV HKU26.

negative: Water, climate change, and COVID-19: prioritising those in water-stressed settings

negative: Revisión Narrativa Sobre La Respuesta Inmunitaria Frente A Coronavirus: Descripción General, Aplicabilidad Para Sars-Cov2 E Implicaciones Terapéuticas Abstract The new coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) that causes a severe acute respiratory syndrome emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. It produces the aforementioned disease due to coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), and has led to a declaration of a world public health emergency by the World Health Organisation. This new SARS-CoV2 virus could share characteristics and an immune response similar to those described for other coronavirus. Given its activity on the interferon pathway, and the manner in which it dysregulates innate immunity, the use of treatments directed at modulating or containing this could be of interest. A narrative review was made of the current evidence about immunity against coronavirus and it applicability to SARS-CoV2. The physiopathogenesis is also described, along with the underlying leucocyte activity, with the intention of clarifying the possible usefulness of inflammatory biomarkers and the development of personalised treatments.

negative: Overview and Historical Review This book investigates and scrutinizes the lessons learned in the Republic of Korea during a five-decade swath of disasters – from 1948 to 2015 – and results in the disaster response policy change model in the wake of major disasters for resilience building. This book is structured of power-law relation between disaster loss and frequency in Korea from 1948 to 2015, focusing events in the power-law distribution, Disaster-Triggered Policy Change Model, and suggestions for resilient future. To start with the historical review, how to understand disaster throughout the ages was investigated: from an Act of God to Mother Nature’s will to societies’ inherent risk. As we journey through disaster’s history, we start to see the categorization of disasters by cause, principle, and risk – drawing to an understanding of risk through hazard and vulnerability.

negative: Changes in sexual behaviors of young women and men during the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak: a convenience sample from the epidemic area Abstract Background In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a pandemic. Currently, data on changes in sexual behavior during the COVID-19 outbreak are limited. Aim The present study aimed to obtain a preliminary understanding of the changes in people’s sexual behavior, as a result of the pandemic and explore the context in which they manifest. Methods A convenience sample of 270 men and 189 women who completed an online survey consisting of 12 items plus an additional question were included in the study. Outcomes The study outcomes were obtained using a study-specific questionnaire to assess the changes in people’s sexual behavior. Results While there was a wide range of individual responses, our results showed that 44% of participants reported a decrease in the number of sexual partners and about 37% of participants reported a decrease in sexual frequency. Multiple regression analysis showed that age, partner relationship and sexual desire were closely related to sexual frequency. In addition, we found that most individuals with risky sexual experiences had a rapid reduction in risky sexual behavior. Clinical Implications The current findings contribute to identifying another potential health implication associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and report preliminary evidence of the need to provide potential interventions for the population. Strength & Limitations This study is the first to perform a preliminary exploration of sexual behavior during the COVID-19 outbreak. The generalizability of the results is limited, given that only a small convenience sample was used. Conclusion During the height of the COVID-19 outbreak, overall sexual activity, frequency, and risky behaviors declined significantly among young men and women in China.

negative: Estimating COVID-19 outbreak risk through air travel Background: COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the globe during the first several months of 2020, creating a pandemic. Substantial, non-discriminatory limitations have been imposed on air travel to inhibit this spread. As the disease prevalence and incidence will decrease, more specific control measures will be sought so that commercial air travel can continue to operate yet not impose a high threat of COVID-19 resurgence. Methods: We use modelled global air travel data and population density estimates to analyse the risk posed by 1364 airports to initiate a COVID-19 outbreak. We calculate the risk using a probabilistic approach that considers the volume of air travelers between airports and the R0 of each location, scaled by population density. This exercise is performed globally as well as specifically for two potentially vulnerable locations: Africa and India. Results: We show that globally, many of the airports posing the highest risk are in China and India. An outbreak of COVID-19 in Africa is most likely to originate in a passenger travelling from Europe. On the other hand, the highest risk to India is from domestic travellers. Our results are robust to changes in the underlying epidemiological assumptions. Conclusions: Variation in flight volumes and destinations creates a non-uniform distribution of the risk different airports pose to resurgence of a COVID-19 outbreak. We suggest the method presented here as a tool for the estimation of this risk. Our method can be used to inform efficient allocation of resources, such as tests identifying infected passengers, so that they could be differentially deployed in various locations.

negative: Potential Fecal Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Current Evidence and Implications for Public Health Abstract Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Hubei Province, China in December 2019 and has since become a global pandemic, with hundreds of thousands of cases and over 165 affected countries. Primary routes of transmission of the causative virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), are through respiratory droplets and close person-to-person contact. While information about other potential modes of transmission are relatively sparse, evidence supporting the possibility of a fecally-mediated mode of transmission has been accumulating. Here, current knowledge on the potential for fecal transmission is briefly reviewed and the possible implications are discussed from a public health perspective.

negative: The novel coronavirus 2019 (2019-nCoV) uses the SARS-coronavirus receptor ACE2 and the cellular protease TMPRSS2 for entry into target cells The emergence of a novel, highly pathogenic coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, in China, and its rapid national and international spread pose a global health emergency. Coronaviruses use their spike proteins to select and enter target cells and insights into nCoV-2019 spike (S)-driven entry might facilitate assessment of pandemic potential and reveal therapeutic targets. Here, we demonstrate that 2019-nCoV-S uses the SARS-coronavirus receptor, ACE2, for entry and the cellular protease TMPRSS2 for 2019-nCoV-S priming. A TMPRSS2 inhibitor blocked entry and might constitute a treatment option. Finally, we show that the serum form a convalescent SARS patient neutralized 2019-nCoV-S-driven entry. Our results reveal important commonalities between 2019-nCoV and SARS-coronavirus infection, which might translate into similar transmissibility and disease pathogenesis. Moreover, they identify a target for antiviral intervention. One sentence summary The novel 2019 coronavirus and the SARS-coronavirus share central biological properties which can guide risk assessment and intervention.

negative: Differential effects of triptolide and tetrandrine on activation of COX-2, NF-κB, and AP-1 and virus production in dengue virus-infected human lung cells Abstract Most virus infections induce cycloxygenase-2 (COX-2) expression and subsequent prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) production in cells, an inflammatory response that might be detrimental to virus replication and pathogenesis. This response in dengue virus infection remains to be elucidated. Triptolide and tetrandrine, compounds derived from two commonly used Chinese herbs, both demonstrate anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressive effects partly through modulation of COX-2 expression and, hence, may have antiviral effects. In this study, we examined, firstly, the immune response to dengue virus infection with respect to COX-2 expression and PGE2 production in human lung cells (A549), liver cells (HepG2) and dendritic cells. Secondly, we assessed the potential antiviral effects of triptolide and tetrandrine on dengue virus infection vis-à-vis expression of COX-2, PGE2, transcription factors, as well as virus production. We found that dengue virus infection enhanced COX-2 expression and PGE2 production in A549 cells, similarly to the response in dendritic cells, but not in HepG2 cells. In dengue virus-infected A549 cells, nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) and activator protein 1 (AP-1) were also activated, and both were dose-dependently inhibited by triptolide (0.5–4 ng/ml). Tetrandrine (1–10 μM) had no similar immunosuppressive effects and, moreover, at higher concentrations, enhanced NF-κB and AP-1 activity, COX-2 expression and PGE2 production. However, unexpectedly, tetrandrine, but not triptolide, dose-dependently suppressed dengue virus production in A549 cells, independent of PGE2 level. Our findings imply that triptolide and tetrandrine may attenuate dengue virus infection in human lung cells, but through distinct pathways.

negative: Cryo-EM structure of infectious bronchitis coronavirus spike protein reveals structural and functional evolution of coronavirus spike proteins As cell-invading molecular machinery, coronavirus spike proteins pose an evolutionary conundrum due to their high divergence. In this study, we determined the cryo-EM structure of avian infectious bronchitis coronavirus (IBV) spike protein from the γ-genus. The trimeric IBV spike ectodomain contains three receptor-binding S1 heads and a trimeric membrane-fusion S2 stalk. While IBV S2 is structurally similar to those from the other genera, IBV S1 possesses structural features that are unique to different other genera, thereby bridging these diverse spikes into an evolutionary spectrum. Specifically, among different genera, the two domains of S1, the N-terminal domain (S1-NTD) and C-terminal domain (S1-CTD), diverge from simpler tertiary structures and quaternary packing to more complex ones, leading to different functions of the spikes in receptor usage and membrane fusion. Based on the above structural and functional comparisons, we propose that the evolutionary spectrum of coronavirus spikes follows the order of α-, δ-, γ-, and β-genus. This study has provided insight into the evolutionary relationships among coronavirus spikes and deepened our understanding of their structural and functional diversity.

negative: Seasonal influenza surveillance: Observational study on the 2017–2018 season with predominant B influenza virus circulation Abstract Introduction Influenza is a common respiratory infectious disease affecting population worldwide yearly. The aim of this work is to describe the 2017–2018 influenza season and how it affected elderly population in Catalonia despite moderate vaccine coverage among this age group. Methods Influenza surveillance based on a primary care sentinel surveillance, virological indicators systematic sampling of ILI attended and severe influenza confirmed cases (SHLCI) admitted to hospital. Analysis of data by Chi-squared, ANOVA, multiple regression and negative control test or case to case for vaccine effectiveness assessment in primary care and SHLCI respectively. Results Moderate-high intensity and early onset season with predominance of influenza B virus (IVB) (63%) followed by an increase of circulation of influenza A virus (IVA). A total of 419 IV from primary care samples. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) in primary care setting was 14% (95%CI: 0–47%). 1306 severe cases (adjusted cumulative incidence 18.54/100,000 inhabitants (95%CI: 17.54–19.55)). The highest proportion of severe cases were in the >64 (65.1%) (aOR 15.70; 95%CI: 12.06–20.46; p <0.001) followed by 45–64yo (25.4%) (aOR 6.03; 95%CI: 4.57–7.97). VE in preventing intensive care unit (ICU) admission was 35% (95%CI: 10–54%). Final outcome death while hospitalized occurred in 175 SHLCI cases with a case fatality rate of 13.4%. Conclusions 2017–2018 influenza season was an unusual epidemic season with an early onset, great predominance of influenza B (Yamagata strain) virus with a high hospitalization rate of severe cases among elderly stressing the need to upgrade vaccine uptake in this age group.

negative: ElaD, a Deubiquitinating Protease Expressed by E. coli BACKGROUND: Ubiquitin and ubiquitin-like proteins (Ubl) are designed to modify polypeptides in eukaryotes. Covalent binding of ubiquitin or Ubls to substrate proteins can be reversed by specific hydrolases. One particular set of cysteine proteases, the CE clan, which targets ubiquitin and Ubls, has homologs in eukaryotes, prokaryotes, and viruses. FINDINGS: We have cloned and analyzed the E. coli protein elaD, which is distantly related to eukaryotic CE clan members of the ULP/SENP protease family that are specific for SUMO and Nedd8. Previously misannotated as a putative sulfatase/phosphatase, elaD is an efficient and specific deubiquitinating enzyme in vitro. Interestingly, elaD is present in all intestinal pathogenic E. coli strains, but conspicuously absent from extraintestinal pathogenic strains (ExPECs). Further homologs of this protease can be found in Acanthamoeba Polyphaga Mimivirus, and in Alpha-, Beta-and Gammaproteobacteria. CONCLUSION: The expression of ULP/SENP-related hydrolases in bacteria therefore extends to plant pathogens and medically relevant strains of Escherichia coli, Legionella pneumophila, Rickettsiae, Chlamydiae, and Salmonellae, in which the elaD ortholog sseL has recently been identified as a virulence factor with deubiquitinating activity. As a counterpoint, our phylogenetic and functional examination reveals that ancient eukaryotic ULP/SENP proteases also have the potential of ubiquitin-specific hydrolysis, suggesting an early common origin of this peptidase clan.

negative: The Social and Political Dimensions of the Ebola Response: Global Inequality, Climate Change, and Infectious Disease The 2014 Ebola crisis has highlighted public-health vulnerabilities in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea—countries ravaged by extreme poverty, deforestation and mining-related disruption of livelihoods and ecosystems, and bloody civil wars in the cases of Liberia and Sierra Leone. Ebola’s emergence and impact are grounded in the legacy of colonialism and its creation of enduring inequalities within African nations and globally, via neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus. Recent experiences with new and emerging diseases such as SARS and various strains of HN influenzas have demonstrated the effectiveness of a coordinated local and global public health and education-oriented response to contain epidemics. To what extent is international assistance to fight Ebola strengthening local public health and medical capacity in a sustainable way, so that other emerging disease threats, which are accelerating with climate change, may be met successfully? This chapter considers the wide-ranging socio-political, medical, legal and environmental factors that have contributed to the rapid spread of Ebola, with particular emphasis on the politics of the global and public health response and the role of gender, social inequality, colonialism and racism as they relate to the mobilization and establishment of the public health infrastructure required to combat Ebola and other emerging diseases in times of climate change.

negative: Using Classification for Traffic Prediction in Smart Cities Smart cities emerge as highly sophisticated bionetworks, providing smart services and ground-breaking solutions. This paper relates classification with Smart City projects, particularly focusing on traffic prediction. A systematic literature review identifies the main topics and methods used, emphasizing on various Smart Cities components, such as data harvesting and data mining. It addresses the research question whether we can forecast traffic load based on past data, as well as meteorological conditions. Results have shown that various models can be developed based on weather data with varying level of success.

negative: Sentinel surveillance of selected veterinary and public health pathogens in camel population originating from Southern Punjab province, Pakistan Abstract An extended range of host susceptibility including camel has been evidenced for some of the important veterinary and public health pathogens, such as brucellosis, peste des petits ruminants (PPR) and bluetongue (BT). However, in disease endemic settings across many parts of the globe, most of the disease control interventions accounts for small and large ruminants, whereas unusual hosts and/or natural reservoirs, such as camels, remain neglected for disease control measures including routine vaccination. Such a policy drawback not only plays an important role in disease epizootiology particularly in settings where disease is endemic, but also serves an obstacle in disease control and subsequent eradication in future. With this background, using pre-validated ELISA and molecular assays [multiplex PCR, reverse transcriptase (RT)-PCR and real-time (rt)-PCR], we conducted a large-scale pathogen- and antibody-based surveillance for brucellosis, peste des petits ruminants and bluetongue in camel population (n = 992) originating from a wide geographical region in southern part of the Punjab province, Pakistan. Varying in each of the selected districts, the seroprevalence was found to be maximum for bluetongue [n = 697 (70.26%, 95% CI: 67.29–73.07)], followed by PPR [n = 193 (19.46%, 95% CI: 17.07–22.09)] and brucellosis [n = 66 (6.65%, 95% CI: 5.22–8.43)]. Odds of seroprevalence were more significantly associated with pregnancy status (non-pregnant, OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.86–5.63, p<0.01), farming system (mixed-animal, OR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.56–4.29, p<0.01), breed (Desi, OR = 1.97, 95% CI: 1.28–4.03, p<0.01) and farmer education (illiterate, OR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.45–6.93, p<0.01) for BTV, body condition (normal, OR = 3.54, 95% CI: 1.92–6.54, p<0.01) and breed (Desi, OR = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.09–4.40, p<0.01) for brucellosis, and feeding system for PPR (grazing, OR = 2.75, 95% CI: 1.79–4.22, p<0.01). Among the total herds included (n = 74), genome corresponding to BT virus (BTV) and brucellosis was detected in 14 (18.92%, 95 CI: 11.09–30.04) and 19 herds (25.68%, 95% CI: 16.54–37.38), respectively. None of the herds was detected with genome of PPR virus (PPRV). Among the positive herds, serotype 1, 8 and 11 were detected for BTV while all the herds were exclusively positive to B. abortus. Taken together, the study highlights the role of potential disease reservoirs in the persistence and transmission of selected diseases in their susceptible hosts and, therefore, urges necessary interventions (e.g., inclusion of camels for vaccine etc.) for the control of diseases from their endemic setting worldwide.

negative: Alterations in Nerve-Evoked Bladder Contractions in a Coronavirus-Induced Mouse Model of Multiple Sclerosis BACKGROUND: Patients with neurodegenerative diseases such as multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s, and Alzheimer’s often present with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS, urinary frequency, urgency, nocturia and retention) resulting from damage to the peripheral and central nervous systems. These studies were designed to examine the changes in the function of the bladder that may underlie neurogenic bladder dysfunction using a mouse model of demyelination in the CNS. METHODS: Bladders from 12 week old male C57BL/6J mice with coronavirus-induced encephalomyelitis (CIE, a chronic, progressive demyelinating disease model of human MS), and age-matched controls, were cut into 5–7 strips and suspended in physiological muscle baths for tension measurement in response to agonists and electric field stimulation (EFS). Experiments were performed on intact and denuded (with mucosa removed) bladder strips. RESULTS: The maximum effect of EFS was not significantly different between CIE and control bladders. Nerve-evoked EFS contractions (tetrodotoxin-sensitive) were blocked by a combination of atropine (cholinergic antagonist) and α,β-methylene ATP (an ATP analog that desensitizes purinergic receptors). In response to EFS, the α,β-methylene ATP-resistant (cholinergic) component of contraction was significantly reduced, while the atropine-resistant (purinergic) component was significantly increased in CIE bladders. Removal of the mucosa in CIE bladders restored the cholinergic component. Bethanechol (muscarinic receptor agonist) potency was significantly increased in CIE bladders. CONCLUSIONS: Our data demonstrate a deficit in the nerve-evoked cholinergic component of contraction that is not due to the ability of the smooth muscle to respond to acetylcholine. We conclude that neurodegenerative bladder dysfunction in this model of multiple sclerosis may be due, in part, to pathologic changes in the mucosa that causes suppression of muscarinic receptor-mediated contractile response and augmentation of purinergic response of the underlying muscle. Further studies utilizing CIE mice should help elucidate the pathological changes in the mucosa resulting from demyelination in the CNS.

negative: Experimental and numerical investigation of micro-environmental conditions in public transportation buses Abstract This study examines both numerically and experimentally the micro-environmental conditions in public transportation buses. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model was developed and experimentally validated. The developed CFD model was used to calculate the spatial distributions of the mean age and mean residual lifetime of air in the bus environment and evaluate the efficiency of the bus ventilation system. Additionally, the passengers’ exposures to a variety of environmental conditions were experimentally monitored in “real world” field campaigns using the Harvard University shuttle bus system. Real time continuous monitoring systems were used to assess indoor environmental quality in the buses. It was found that CO levels were very low, while the levels of particulate matter varied and were influenced by the ambient air penetrated into the bus through the operation of the doors and the ventilation system. The CO2 level was found elevated and greatly affected by occupancy conditions. The elevated CO2 level indicates that the current bus ventilation is insufficient to dilute air pollutants in the bus especially under heavy occupancy conditions. This lack of sufficient ventilation indicates an elevated risk for airborne transmitted diseases in such a popular public transportation system.

negative: Nationalizing a global phenomenon: A study of how the press in 45 countries and territories portrays climate change Abstract This study investigates the news coverage of climate change in 45 different countries and territories. Using the news framing approach, this study identifies the connections between several national socioeconomic, governance, and environmental traits and the portrayals of climate change. Although climate change is a global issue that affects every country in the world, how the news media frame it varies from country to country. Such a variation is related to each country’s economic development, climate severity, and governance. The findings of this study contribute to framing literature by assessing frame use in national contexts, filling in the gap in the application of this theoretical framework.

negative: [Dynamic changes of chest CT imaging in patients with corona virus disease-19 (COVID-19)]. OBJECTIVE To analyze the dynamic changes of chest CT images of patients with corona virus disease-19 (COVID-19). METHODS Fifty-two cases of COVID-19 were admitted in the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University School of Medicine. The consecutive chest CT scans were followed up for all patients with an average of 4 scans performed per patient during the hospitalization. The shortest interval between each scan was 2 days and the longest was 7 days. The shape, number and distribution of lung shadows, as well as the characteristics of the lesions on the CT images were reviewed. RESULTS The obvious shadows infiltrating the lungs were shown on CT images in 50 cases, for other 2 cases there was no abnormal changes in the lungs during the first CT examination. Ground-glass opacities (GGO) were found in 48 cases (92.3%), and 19 cases (36.5%) had patchy consolidation and sub-consolidation, which were accompanied with air bronchi sign in 17 cases (32.7%). Forty one cases (78.8%) showed a thickened leaflet interval, 4 cases (7.6%) had a small number of fibrous stripes. During hospitalization, GGO lesions in COVID-19 patients gradually became rare, the fibrous strip shadows increased and it became the most common imaging manifestation. The lesions rapidly progressed in 39 cases (75.0%) within 6-9 days after admission. On days 10-14 of admission, the lesions distinctly resolved in 40 cases (76.9%). CONCLUSIONS The chest CT images of patients with COVID-19 have certain characteristics with dynamic changes, which are of value for monitoring disease progress and clinical treatment.

negative: Does SARS-CoV-2 infection cause chronic neurological complications? The current pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2 has created an unparalleled health crisis. Besides the acute respiratory infection, CoVs are neuroinvasive causing additional inflammation and neurodegeneration. This is likely also true of SARS-CoV-2 given reports of neurological manifestations in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive patients. Older adults > 65 years of age constitute a high-risk group prone to severe infection and death. Despite the higher mortality rate, a majority of cases are expected to recover and survive from this viral outbreak. But, the long-term consequences of SARS-CoV-2 neuroinfection are unknown. We discuss these potential chronic changes to the central nervous system (CNS) in relation to accelerated brain aging and age-related neurodegenerative disorders.

negative: Application of immunofluorescence technique to clinical virology Virologists for many years have striven to achieve the goal of rapid virus diagnosis. This book has described in detail one of the methods. The achievement of success in a method of rapid virus diagnosis cannot, in itself, be a final aim, otherwise the method would degenerate solely into a rapid routine method for identifying virus agents and the virologist would become a biological philatelist. An applied science, to justify itself, must bring benefit to the main clientele, which is in this case the physicians and the patients. In this chapter it is intended to evaluate the applications of rapid immunofluorescence diagnosis in clinical medicine.

negative: Simulation-based Estimation of the Spread of COVID-19 in Iran Background: The 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19) has turned into a global pandemic with unprecedented challenges for the global community. Understanding the state of the disease and planning for future trajectories relies heavily on data on the spread and mortality. Yet official data coming from various countries are highly unreliable: symptoms similar to common cold in majority of cases and limited screening resources and delayed testing procedures may contribute to under-estimation of the burden of disease. Anecdotal and more limited data are available, but few have systematically combined those with official statistics into a coherent view of the epidemic. This study is a modeling-in-real-time of the emerging outbreak for understanding the state of the disease. Our focus is on the case of the spread of disease in Iran, as one of the epicenters of the disease in the first months of 2020. Method: We develop a simple dynamic model of the epidemic to provide a more reliable picture of the state of the disease based on existing data. Building on the generic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) framework we incorporate two behavioral and logistical considerations. First we capture the endogenous changes in contact rate (average contact per person) as more death are reported. As a result the reproduction number changes endogenously in the model. Second we differentiate reported and true cases by including simple formulations for how only a fraction of cases might be diagnosed, and how that fraction changes in response to epidemic's progression. In estimating the model we use both the official data as well as the discovered infected travelers and unofficial medical community estimates and triangulate these sources to build a more complete picture. Calibration is completed by forming a likelihood function for observing the actual time series data conditional on model parameters, and conducting a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. The model is used to estimate current "true" cases of infection and death. We analyze the future trajectory of the disease under six conditions related to the seasonal effects and policy measures targeting social distancing. Findings: The model closely replicates the past data but also shows the true number of cases is likely far larger. We estimate about 493,000 current infected cases (90% CI: 271K-810K) as of March 20th, 2020. Our estimate for cumulative cases of infection until that date is 916,000 (90% CI: 508K, 1.5M), and for total death is 15,485 (90% CI: 8.4K, 25.8K). These numbers are significantly (more than one order of magnitude) higher than official statistics. The trajectory of the epidemic until the end of June could take various paths depending on the impact of seasonality and policies targeting social distancing. In the most optimistic scenario for seasonal effects, depending on policy measures, 1.6 million Iranians (90% CI: 0.9M-2.6M) are likely to get infected, and death toll will reach about 58,000 cases (90% CI: 32K-97K), while in the more pessimistic scenarios, death toll may exceed 103,000 cases (90% CI: 56K-172K). Implication: Our results suggest that the number of cases and deaths may be over an order of magnitude larger than official statistics in Iran. Absent extended testing capacity other countries may face a significant under-count of existing cases and thus be caught off guard about the actual toll of the epidemic.

negative: Las enseñanzas del síndrome respiratorio agudo grave

negative: The Conserved Coronavirus Macrodomain Promotes Virulence and Suppresses the Innate Immune Response during Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection ADP-ribosylation is a common posttranslational modification that may have antiviral properties and impact innate immunity. To regulate this activity, macrodomain proteins enzymatically remove covalently attached ADP-ribose from protein targets. All members of the Coronavirinae, a subfamily of positive-sense RNA viruses, contain a highly conserved macrodomain within nonstructural protein 3 (nsp3). However, its function or targets during infection remain unknown. We identified several macrodomain mutations that greatly reduced nsp3’s de-ADP-ribosylation activity in vitro. Next, we created recombinant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) strains with these mutations. These mutations led to virus attenuation and a modest reduction of viral loads in infected mice, despite normal replication in cell culture. Further, macrodomain mutant virus elicited an early, enhanced interferon (IFN), interferon-stimulated gene (ISG), and proinflammatory cytokine response in mice and in a human bronchial epithelial cell line. Using a coinfection assay, we found that inclusion of mutant virus in the inoculum protected mice from an otherwise lethal SARS-CoV infection without reducing virus loads, indicating that the changes in innate immune response were physiologically significant. In conclusion, we have established a novel function for the SARS-CoV macrodomain that implicates ADP-ribose in the regulation of the innate immune response and helps to demonstrate why this domain is conserved in CoVs.

negative: COVID-19: A promising cure for the global panic Abstract The novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by SARS-CoV-2, which is the causative agent of a potentially fatal disease that is of great global public health concern. The outbreak of COVID-19 is wreaking havoc worldwide due to inadequate risk assessment regarding the urgency of the situation. The COVID-19 pandemic has entered a dangerous new phase. When compared with SARS and MERS, COVID-19 has spread more rapidly, due to increased globalization and adaptation of the virus in every environment. Slowing the spread of the COVID-19 cases will significantly reduce the strain on the healthcare system of the country by limiting the number of people who are severely sick by COVID-19 and need hospital care. Hence, the recent outburst of COVID-19 highlights an urgent need for therapeutics targeting SARS-CoV-2. Here, we have discussed the structure of virus; varying symptoms among COVID-19, SARS, MERS and common flu; the probable mechanism behind the infection and its immune response. Further, the current treatment options, drugs available, ongoing trials and recent diagnostics for COVID-19 have been discussed. We suggest traditional Indian medicinal plants as possible novel therapeutic approaches, exclusively targeting SARS-CoV-2 and its pathways.

negative: CHAPTER 28 Coronaviridae Publisher Summary Coronaviruses are ssRNA viruses that infect a wide range of mammalian and avian species; they are important causes of respiratory and enteric disease, encephalomyelitis, hepatitis, serositis, and vasculitis in domestic animals. In humans, coronaviruses are one of several groups of viruses that cause the common cold. The prototype of the family, avian infectious brochitis virus, is one of the most infectious of all viruses and causes an acute respiratory disease, which in young chicks can cause very high mortality. Outbreaks can be explosive, involving nearly every bird in the flock at about the same time, because of respiratory transmission and a very short incubation period. In many ways, transmissible gastroenteritis virus of swine and mouse hepatitis virus behave similarly, affecting young animals most severely, spreading very quickly to all animals at risk, and causing major economic losses before control strategies can be put into place. The strategy of expression of the coronavirus genome is unique. The input virion RNA molecule is translated directly, one of the products being an RNA polymerase that then transcribes a full-length (—) sense copy RNA, from which in turn is transcribed a 3′-coterminal nested set of subgenomic mRNAs. The nested set comprises six overlapping species of mRNAs that extend for different lengths from a common 3′ terminus. Only the unique sequence toward the 5′ end, which is not shared with the next smallest mRNA in the nested set, is translated, each product, therefore, being a unique protein.

negative: Chapter 8 The Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus: An Emerging Virus of Global Threat Abstract Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus (CoV), first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Since then, almost 2000 cases have been reported from 27 countries, with Saudi Arabia being the epicenter. This newly emerging virus is highly pathogenic and has a case mortality rate of 35%. It is similar to the CoV causing severe acute respiratory syndrome CoV (SARS-CoV) in that both belong to the genus beta CoVs that are of zoonotic origin and cause lower respiratory infection. The natural reservoir for MERS-CoV remains unknown. Serological studies indicate that most dromedary camels in the Middle East have been infected with this virus, and they maybe the potential intermediate host. However, the mode of transmission from camels to humans is poorly understood. The majority of confirmed human cases have resulted from human-to-human transmission, most probably via respiratory route. Patients most at risk of developing severe MERS-CoV infection appear to be those with underlying conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, obesity, cardiac diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and cancer. Unlike SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV is considered an ongoing public health problem, particularly for the Middle East region. In this chapter, we outline the prevailing information regarding the emergence and epidemiology of this virus, its mode of transmission and pathogenicity, its clinical features, and the potential strategies for prevention.

negative: Unique SARS-CoV protein nsp1: bioinformatics, biochemistry and potential effects on virulence Viruses have evolved a myriad of strategies for promoting viral replication, survival and spread. Sequence analysis of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV) genome predicts several proteins that are unique to SARS-CoV. The search to understand the high virulence of SARS-CoV compared with related coronaviruses, which cause lesser respiratory illnesses, has recently focused on the unique nsp1 protein of SARS-CoV and suggests evolution of a possible new virulence mechanism in coronaviruses. The SARS-CoV nsp1 protein increases cellular RNA degradation and thus might facilitate SARS-CoV replication or block immune responses.

negative: Crystal Dehydration in Membrane Protein Crystallography Crystal dehydration has been successfully implemented to facilitate the structural solution of a number of soluble and membrane protein structures over the years. This chapter will present the currently available tools to undertake controlled crystal dehydration, focusing on some successful membrane protein cases. Also discussed here will be some practical considerations regarding membrane protein crystals and the relationship between different techniques in order to help researchers to select the most suitable technique for their projects.

negative: COVID-19 Myocarditis and Severity Factors： An Adult Cohort Study Background Notwithstanding the clinical hallmarks of COVID-19 patients were reported, several critical issues still remain mysterious, i.e., prognostic factors for COVID-19 including extrinsic factors as viral load of SARS-CoV-2 and intrinsic factors as individual's health conditions; myocarditis incidence rate and hallmarks. Methods Demographic, epidemiologic, radiologic and laboratory data were collected by medical record reviews of adult hospitalized patients diagnosed as COVID-19. Cycle threshold (Ct) value data of real-time PCR (RT-PCR) were collected. The time duration was from 21 January to 2 March, 2020. Pulmonary inflammation index (PII) values were used for chest CT findings. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent severity risk factors. RESULTS In total, 84 hospitalized adult patients diagnosed as COVID-19 were included, including 20 severe and 64 nonsevere cases. The viral load of the severe group was significantly higher than that of the non-severe group, regardless of the Ct values for N or ORF1ab gene of virus (all p<0.05).Typical CT abnormalities was more likely existing in the severe group than in the nonsevere group in patchy shadows or ground glass opacities, consolidation, and interlobular septal thickening (all p<0.05). In addition, the PII values in the severe group was significantly higher than that in the nonsevere group (52.5 [42.5-62.5] vs 20 [5.0-31.6]; p<0.001). Amongst 84 patients, 13 patients (15.48%) were noted with abnormal electrocardiograms (ECGs) and serum myocardial enzyme levels; whereas 4 (4.8%) were clinically diagnosed as SARS-CoV-2 myocarditis. Multivariable logistic regress analysis distinguished three key independent risk factors for the severity of COVID-19, including age [OR 2.350; 95% CI (1.206 to 4.580); p=0.012], Ct value [OR 0.158; 95% CI (0.025 to 0.987); p=0.048] and PII [OR 1.912; 95% CI (1.187 to 3.079); p=0.008]. Interpretation Three key-independent risk factors of COVID-19 were identified, including age, PII, and Ct value. The Ct value is closely correlated with the severity of COVID-19, and may act as a predictor of clinical severity of COVID-19 in the early stage. SARS-CoV-2 myocarditis should be highlighted despite a relatively low incidence rate (4.8%). The oxygen pressure and blood oxygen saturation should not be neglected as closely linked with the altitude of epidemic regions.

negative: Current status of treatment for 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia/ 中华微生物学和免疫学杂志 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a new member of coronavirus family that can cause serious respiratory diseases after the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and middle east respiratory syndrome-coronavirus (MERS-CoV). At present, there is no specific antiviral drug targeting 2019-nCoV. In facing of the increasingly serious epidemic of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia and the urgent needs in drug treatment strategies, this paper reviewed the current research situation and progress in antiviral treatment for the newly identified disease.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus open reading frame (ORF) 3b, ORF 6, and nucleocapsid proteins function as interferon antagonists. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) is highly pathogenic in humans, with a death rate near 10%. This high pathogenicity suggests that SARS-CoV has developed mechanisms to overcome the host innate immune response. It has now been determined that SARS-CoV open reading frame (ORF) 3b, ORF 6, and N proteins antagonize interferon, a key component of the innate immune response. All three proteins inhibit the expression of beta interferon (IFN-beta), and further examination revealed that these SARS-CoV proteins inhibit a key protein necessary for the expression of IFN-beta, IRF-3. N protein dramatically inhibited expression from an NF-kappaB-responsive promoter. All three proteins were able to inhibit expression from an interferon-stimulated response element (ISRE) promoter after infection with Sendai virus, while only ORF 3b and ORF 6 proteins were able to inhibit expression from the ISRE promoter after treatment with interferon. This indicates that N protein inhibits only the synthesis of interferon, while ORF 3b and ORF 6 proteins inhibit both interferon synthesis and signaling. ORF 6 protein, but not ORF 3b or N protein, inhibited nuclear translocation but not phosphorylation of STAT1. Thus, it appears that these three interferon antagonists of SARS-CoV inhibit the interferon response by different mechanisms.

negative: Future Perspectives of Wastewater-Based Epidemiology: Monitoring Infectious Disease Spread and Resistance to the Community Level Abstract Infectious diseases are acknowledged as one of the most critical threats to global public health today. Climate change, unprecedented population growth with accelerated rates of antimicrobial resistance, have resulted in both the emergence of novel pathogenic organisms and the re-emergence of infections that were once controlled. The consequences have led to an increased vulnerability to infectious diseases globally. The ability to rapidly monitor the spread of diseases is key for prevention, intervention and control, however several limitations exist for current surveillance systems and the capacity to cope with the rapid population growth and environmental changes. Wastewater-Based Epidemiology (WBE) is a new epidemiology tool that has potential to act as a complementary approach for current infectious disease surveillance systems and an early warning system for disease outbreaks. WBE postulates that through the analysis of population pooled wastewater, infectious disease and resistance spread, the emergence of new disease outbreak to the community level can be monitored comprehensively and in real-time. This manuscript provides critical overview of current infectious disease surveillance status, as well as it introduces WBE and its recent advancements. It also provides recommendations for further development required for WBE application as an effective tool for infectious disease surveillance.

negative: The potential impact of climate change on infectious diseases of Arctic fauna. Climate change is already affecting Arctic species including infectious disease agents and greater changes are expected. Some infectious diseases are already increasing but future changes are difficult to predict because of the complexity of host-agent-environment relationships. However mechanisms related to climate change that will influence disease patterns are understood. Warmer temperatures will benefit free living bacteria and parasites whose survival and development is limited by temperature. Warmer temperatures could promote survivability, shorter development rates and transmission. Insects such as mosquitoes and ticks that transmit disease agents may also benefit from climate change as well as the diseases they spread. Climate change will have significant impacts on biodiversity. Disease agents of species that benefit from warming will likely become more prevalent. Host species stressed by changing environmental conditions may be more vulnerable to disease agents. Warming could lead to increased agriculture and other economic opportunities in the Arctic bringing people, domestic food animals, pets and invasive species and their disease agents into Northern regions. Climate warming may also favor the release of persistent environmental pollutants some of which can affect the immune system and may favor increased rates of some diseases.

negative: Ambient temperature, birth rate, and birth outcomes: evidence from South Korea The effects from rising temperatures, a symptom of climate change, have become a significant concern. This study finds that one additional day with a maximum temperature of 30–32 °C (86–89.6 °F), relative to a day with a temperature of 28–30 °C (82.4–86 °F), decreases the birth rate 9 months later by 0.24%, or 92 babies per month in South Korea. This result is robust to various specifications and samples. This study also found that the impact of the temperature bin did not vary according to the mother’s characteristics, including education and age. That is, high temperature has no differential effect on mothers of different backgrounds. Finally, we found no significant temperature effect on birth outcomes, but we cannot rule out that children born 9 months after summer heat are a selected (healthy) group.

negative: The deadly coronaviruses: The 2003 SARS pandemic and the 2020 novel coronavirus epidemic in China Abstract The 2019-nCoV is officially called SARS-CoV-2 and the disease is named COVID-19. This viral epidemic in China has led to the deaths of over 1800 people, mostly elderly or those with an underlying chronic disease or immunosuppressed state. This is the third serious Coronavirus outbreak in less than 20 years, following SARS in 2002–2003 and MERS in 2012. While human strains of Coronavirus are associated with about 15% of cases of the common cold, the SARS-CoV-2 may present with varying degrees of severity, from flu-like symptoms to death. It is currently believed that this deadly Coronavirus strain originated from wild animals at the Huanan market in Wuhan, a city in Hubei province. Bats, snakes and pangolins have been cited as potential carriers based on the sequence homology of CoV isolated from these animals and the viral nucleic acids of the virus isolated from SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Extreme quarantine measures, including sealing off large cities, closing borders and confining people to their homes, were instituted in January 2020 to prevent spread of the virus, but by that time much of the damage had been done, as human-human transmission became evident. While these quarantine measures are necessary and have prevented a historical disaster along the lines of the Spanish flu, earlier recognition and earlier implementation of quarantine measures may have been even more effective. Lessons learned from SARS resulted in faster determination of the nucleic acid sequence and a more robust quarantine strategy. However, it is clear that finding an effective antiviral and developing a vaccine are still significant challenges. The costs of the epidemic are not limited to medical aspects, as the virus has led to significant sociological, psychological and economic effects globally. Unfortunately, emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has led to numerous reports of Asians being subjected to racist behavior and hate crimes across the world.

negative: Validation of a short form Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey (WURSS-21) BACKGROUND: The Wisconsin Upper Respiratory Symptom Survey (WURSS) is an illness-specific health-related quality-of-life questionnaire outcomes instrument. OBJECTIVES: Research questions were: 1) How well does the WURSS-21 assess the symptoms and functional impairments associated with common cold? 2) How well can this instrument measure change over time (responsiveness)? 3) What is the minimal important difference (MID) that can be detected by the WURSS-21? 4) What are the descriptive statistics for area under the time severity curve (AUC)? 5) What sample sizes would trials require to detect MID or AUC criteria? 6) What does factor analysis tell us about the underlying dimensional structure of the common cold? 7) How reliable are items, domains, and summary scores represented in WURSS? 8) For each of these considerations, how well does the WURSS-21 compare to the WURSS-44, Jackson, and SF-8? STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: People with Jackson-defined colds were recruited from the community in and around Madison, Wisconsin. Participants were enrolled within 48 hours of first cold symptom and monitored for up to 14 days of illness. Half the sample filled out the WURSS-21 in the morning and the WURSS-44 in the evening, with the other half reversing the daily order. External comparators were the SF-8, a 24-hour recall general health measure yielding separate physical and mental health scores, and the eight-item Jackson cold index, which assesses symptoms, but not functional impairment or quality of life. RESULTS: In all, 230 participants were monitored for 2,457 person-days. Participants were aged 14 to 83 years (mean 34.1, SD 13.6), majority female (66.5%), mostly white (86.0%), and represented substantive education and income diversity. WURSS-21 items demonstrated similar performance when embedded within the WURSS-44 or in the stand-alone WURSS-21. Minimal important difference (MID) and Guyatt's responsiveness index were 10.3, 0.71 for the WURSS-21 and 18.5, 0.75 for the WURSS-44. Factorial analysis suggested an eight dimension structure for the WURSS-44 and a three dimension structure for the WURSS-21, with composite reliability coefficients ranging from 0.87 to 0.97, and Cronbach's alpha ranging from 0.76 to 0.96. Both WURSS versions correlated significantly with the Jackson scale (W-21 R = 0.85; W-44 R = 0.88), with the SF-8 physical health (W-21 R = -0.79; W-44 R = -0.80) and SF-8 mental health (W-21 R = -0.55; W-44 R = -0.60). CONCLUSION: The WURSS-44 and WURSS-21 perform well as illness-specific quality-of-life evaluative outcome instruments. Construct validity is supported by the data presented here. While the WURSS-44 covers more symptoms, the WURSS-21 exhibits similar performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness, importance-to-patients, and convergence with other measures.

negative: Tabagisme et maladie à coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19)

negative: Breast radiotherapy under COVID-19 pandemic resource constraints -- approaches to defer or shorten treatment from a Comprehensive Cancer Center in the United States Abstract Introduction Breast radiotherapy accounts for a significant proportion of patient volume in contemporary radiation oncology practice. In the setting of anticipated resource constraints and widespread community infection with SARS-CoV-2 during the COVID-19 pandemic, measures for balancing both infectious and oncologic risk among patients and providers must be carefully considered. Here, we present evidence-based guidelines for omitting or abbreviating breast cancer radiotherapy, where appropriate, in an effort to mitigate risk to patients and optimize resource utilization. Methods Multidisciplinary breast cancer experts at a high-volume comprehensive cancer center convened contingency planning meetings over the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic to review the relevant literature and establish recommendations for the application of hypofractionated and abbreviated breast radiation regimens. Results Substantial evidence exists to support omitting radiation among certain favorable risk subgroups of breast cancer patients and for abbreviating or accelerating regimens among others. For those who require either whole-breast or post-mastectomy radiation, with or without coverage of the regional lymph nodes, a growing body of literature supports various hypofractionated approaches that appear safe and effective. Conclusion In the setting of a public health emergency with the potential to strain critical healthcare resources and place patients at infection risk, the parsimonious application of breast radiotherapy may alleviate a significant clinical burden without compromising long term oncologic outcomes. The judicious and personalized use of immature study data may be warranted in the setting of a competing mortality risk from this widespread pandemic.

negative: PepMapper: A Collaborative Web Tool for Mapping Epitopes from Affinity-Selected Peptides Epitope mapping from affinity-selected peptides has become popular in epitope prediction, and correspondingly many Web-based tools have been developed in recent years. However, the performance of these tools varies in different circumstances. To address this problem, we employed an ensemble approach to incorporate two popular Web tools, MimoPro and Pep-3D-Search, together for taking advantages offered by both methods so as to give users more options for their specific purposes of epitope-peptide mapping. The combined operation of Union finds as many associated peptides as possible from both methods, which increases sensitivity in finding potential epitopic regions on a given antigen surface. The combined operation of Intersection achieves to some extent the mutual verification by the two methods and hence increases the likelihood of locating the genuine epitopic region on a given antigen in relation to the interacting peptides. The Consistency between Intersection and Union is an indirect sufficient condition to assess the likelihood of successful peptide-epitope mapping. On average from 27 tests, the combined operations of PepMapper outperformed either MimoPro or Pep-3D-Search alone. Therefore, PepMapper is another multipurpose mapping tool for epitope prediction from affinity-selected peptides. The Web server can be freely accessed at: http://informatics.nenu.edu.cn/PepMapper/

negative: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19: el virus, la enfermedad y la pandemia/ SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19: The virus, the disease and the pandemic El brote de la enfermedad por coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), causado por el virus del síndrome respiratorio agudo severo tipo-2 (SARS-CoV-2), fue declarado como una pandemia en marzo de 2020. Las tasas de letalidad se estiman entre 1% y 3%, afectando principalmente a los adultos mayores y a aquellos con comorbilidades, como hipertensión, diabetes, enfermedad cardiovascular y cáncer. El periodo de incubación promedio es de 5 días, pero puede ser hasta de 14 días. Muchos pacientes infectados son asintomáticos; sin embargo, debido a que liberan grandes cantidades de virus, son un desafío permanente para contener la propagación de la infección, causando el colapso de los sistemas de salud en las áreas más afectadas. La vigilancia intensa es vital para controlar la mayor propagación del virus, y el aislamiento sigue siendo el medio más efectivo para bloquear la transmisión. Este artículo tiene como objetivo revisar el virus causante de esta nueva pandemia COVID-19 que afecta al mundo, mayor aún que la de influenza A H1N1 en 2009, la cual significó la muerte de cientos de miles de personas en todo el mundo. Se abordan temas como el patógeno, la epidemiología, las manifestaciones clínicas, el diagnóstico y el tratamiento.

negative: Chapter 3 Disastrous Disasters A Polemic on Capitalism, Climate Change, and Humanitarianism Abstract The way people have thought about disasters has changed in almost immeasurable ways. They are no longer considered as “Acts of God” but caused either by natural hazards or by human actions. This shift in thinking has led to different ways of dealing with disasters. What is becoming apparent is that more and more disasters are being produced by human actions. We cause them but seem unable to find the political will to stop doing so. Further, the role of humanitarian agencies has changed. At one time bodies such as the Red Cross would be associated with helping the injured in the battlefield. The nature of present-day warfare or complex emergencies and terrorism means that humanitarian bodies are dealing with many vulnerable refugees and internally displaced people. The following polemic reflects on these changes.

negative: Maximizing the Calm Before the Storm: Tiered Surgical Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Abstract The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first diagnosed in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and has now spread throughout the world, being verified by the World Health Organization as a Pandemic on March 11th. This had led to the calling of a national emergency on March 13th in the United States. Many hospitals, healthcare networks, and specifically Departments of Surgery are asking the same questions of how to cope and plan for surge capacity, personnel attrition, novel infrastructure utilization, and resource exhaustion. Herein, we present a tiered plan for surgical department planning based on incident command levels. This includes Acute Care Surgeon deployment (given their critical care training and vertically integrated position in the hospital), recommended infrastructure and transfer utilization, triage principles, and faculty, resident and advanced care practitioner deployment.

negative: Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–A case study Abstract Lack of a proper assessment method on performance risks in Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) projects is one of the reasons hindering the further development of energy service companies (ESCOs) market. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy saving shortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters, including weather conditions, occupancy, operating hours, thermostat set-point, etc., during the contract period. The proposed method involves the use of a detailed building energy simulation programme, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Empirical data is also used to develop the probability distribution functions for the identified parameters to simulate the actual yearly variations in the post-retrofit conditions. A real case study of replacement of heat rejection system for a central chiller plant in Hong Kong is used to demonstrate the application of this probabilistic method. The result shows that the possible energy savings after a 1-year retrofit period ranges from 393,000kWh (2.86%) to 1098,000kWh (10.8%) with 90% statistical significance.

negative: Combating emerging infectious diseases in India: Orchestrating a symphony

negative: Return of the Coronavirus: 2019-nCoV The emergence of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has awakened the echoes of SARS-CoV from nearly two decades ago. Yet, with technological advances and important lessons gained from previous outbreaks, perhaps the world is better equipped to deal with the most recent emergent group 2B coronavirus.

negative: Social and administrative issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan: better late than never The study critically reviewed Pakistan’s provincial updates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and discussed the current challenges faced by the government in a given context. The coronavirus-associated death tolls have been increasing rapidly in a country. The provincial status of confirmed cases of coronavirus is higher in Punjab, followed by the Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Balochistan. The case fatality ratio shows that KPK has a higher ratio, i.e., 5.11%, followed by the Punjab, i.e., 1.82%; Sindh, i.e., 1.80%; Balochistan, i.e., 1.28%; Gilgit-Baltistan, i.e., 0.71%; and Federal territory, i.e., 0.66%. The country has a less testing capacity to identify more suspected coronavirus patients. The study calculated that if we increase five times our testing capacity from the current date, the total registered cases will be reached to 137,370 and death tolls will increase up to 3090. It is highly needed to increase testing capacity across Pakistan in order to minimize the outbreak of coronavirus. The provincial government should follow the Federal Government instructions to contain coronavirus by increasing testing capacities, tracing suspected patients, smart lockdowns, emergency relief to the poor, and vigilant monitoring system.

negative: Tomar medidas preventivas inmediatamente: evidencia de China sobre el COVID-19

negative: Disaster resiliency of U.S. local governments: Insights to strengthen local response and recovery from the COVID‐19 pandemic This research presents implications of the global pandemic on local government resiliency in the United States. We explore insights from local government officials and managers at the frontlines of response and recovery efforts to the biological natural disaster. Also, findings from the latest nationwide survey of U.S. local governments regarding their preparedness for weather‐related natural disasters informs responses to the current crisis. Results indicate that local governments are innovating and taking strategic actions to fight the virus. This, even though COVID‐19 has exposed social inequities exacerbated as the virus spreads. Survey findings of disaster readiness of local governments to weather‐related disasters shows that small, resource poor governments will not be able to respond well, and social inequities will grow. Policy strategies at all levels of government must recognize and account for these inequities as threat of this virus subsides, to support stronger, more effective readiness for the next biological catastrophe. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

negative: Why are pregnant women susceptible to COVID-19? An immunological viewpoint Abstract The 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first detected in December 2019 and became epidemic in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. COVID-19 has been rapidly spreading out in China and all over the world. The virus causing COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 has been known to be genetically similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) but distinct from it. Clinical manifestation of COVID-19 can be characterized by mild upper respiratory tract infection, lower respiratory tract infection involving non-life threatening pneumonia, and life-threatening pneumonia with acute respiratory distress syndrome. It affects all age groups, including newborns, to the elders. Particularly, pregnant women may be more susceptible to COVID-19 since pregnant women, in general, are vulnerable to respiratory infection. In pregnant women with COVID-19, there is no evidence for vertical transmission of the virus, but an increased prevalence of preterm deliveries has been noticed. The COVID-19 may alter immune responses at the maternal-fetal interface, and affect the well-being of mothers and infants. In this review, we focused on the reason why pregnant women are more susceptible to COVID-19 and the potential maternal and fetal complications from an immunological viewpoint.

negative: The cutting edge of thoracic anesthesia during the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly spread globally, causing a real pandemic. In this critical scenario, lung cancer patients scheduled for surgical treatment need to continue to receive optimal care while protecting them from an eventual severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Adequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE) during aerosol-generating procedures (AGPs) and a COVID-19 specific intraoperative management are paramount in order to prevent cross infections. New suggestions or improvement of existing contagion control guidance are needed, even in case of non-symptomatic patients, possibly responsible for virus spread.

negative: Transmission and clinical characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 in 104 outside-Wuhan patients, China Background: Cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emigrated from Wuhan escalated the risk of spreading in other cities. This report focused on the outside-Wuhan patients to assess the transmission and clinical characteristics of this illness. Methods: Contact investigation was conducted on each patient who admitted to the assigned hospitals in Hunan Province (geographically adjacent to Wuhan) from Jan 22, 2020 to Feb 12, 2020. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiological characteristics, medication therapy and outcomes were collected and analyzed. Patients were confirmed by PCR test. Results: Of the 104 patients, 48 (46.15%) were imported cases and 56 (53.85%) were indigenous cases; 93 (89.42%) had a definite contact history with infections. Family clusters were the major body of patients. Transmission along the chain of 3 &ldquo:generations” was observed. Mean age was 43 (rang, 8-84) years (including 3 children) and 49 (47.12%) were male. Most patients had typical symptoms, 5 asymptomatic infections were found and 2 of them infected their relatives. The median incubation period was 6 (rang, 1-32) days, of 8 patients ranged from 18 to 32 days. Just 9 of 16 severe patients required ICU care. Until Feb 12, 2020, 40 (38.46%) discharged and 1 (0.96%) died. For the antiviral treatment, 80 (76.92%) patients received traditional Chinese medicine therapy. Conclusions: Family but not community transmission occupied the main body of infections in the two centers. Asymptomatic transmission demonstrated here warned us that it may bring more risk to the spread of COVID-19. The incubation period of 8 patients exceeded 14 days.

negative: Persistent Expression of Hepatitis C Virus Non-Structural Proteins Leads to Increased Autophagy and Mitochondrial Injury in Human Hepatoma Cells HCV infection is a major cause of chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States. To address the pathogenesis caused by HCV infection, recent studies have focused on the direct cytopathic effects of individual HCV proteins, with the objective of identifying their specific roles in the overall pathogenesis. However, this approach precludes examination of the possible interactions between different HCV proteins and organelles. To obtain a better understanding of the various cytopathic effects of and cellular responses to HCV proteins, we used human hepatoma cells constitutively replicating HCV RNA encoding either the full-length polyprotein or the non-structural proteins, or cells constitutively expressing the structural protein core, to model the state of persistent HCV infection and examined the combination of various HCV proteins in cellular pathogenesis. Increased reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation in the mitochondria, mitochondrial injury and degeneration, and increased lipid accumulation were common among all HCV protein-expressing cells regardless of whether they expressed the structural or non-structural proteins. Expression of the non-structural proteins also led to increased oxidative stress in the cytosol, membrane blebbing in the endoplasmic reticulum, and accumulation of autophagocytic vacuoles. Alterations of cellular redox state, on the other hand, significantly changed the level of autophagy, suggesting a direct link between oxidative stress and HCV-mediated activation of autophagy. With the wide-spread cytopathic effects, cells with the full-length HCV polyprotein showed a modest antioxidant response and exhibited a significant increase in population doubling time and a concomitant decrease in cyclin D1. In contrast, cells expressing the non-structural proteins were able to launch a vigorous antioxidant response with up-regulation of antioxidant enzymes. The population doubling time and cyclin D1 level were also comparable to that of control cells. Finally, the cytopathic effects of core protein appeared to focus on the mitochondria without remarkable disturbances in the cytosol.

negative: Resistance of Berne virus to physical and chemical treatment Thermal inactivation of Berne virus proceeded at a linear rate between 31°C and 43°C. Storage at temperatures lower than −20°C preserved the infectivity, while at 4°C appreciable loss occurred between 92 and 185 days. Freeze-drying or desiccation at 22°C caused only insignificant loss of infectivity. Virus preparations were not affected by pH values between 2.5 and 10.3. Inactivation by UV occurred more rapidly than with herpes, toga and rhabdoviruses. Berne virus infectivity was sensitive to pronase and B. subtilis proteinase. It was not inactivated by trypsin and chymotrypsin treatment, which resulted in enhancement of infectivity; low concentrations of pronase (< 10 μg ml(−1)) had a similar effect on Berne virus. Neither phospholipase C or RNase, alone or in combination, nor sodium deoxycholate (0.1%) inactivated the virus; in contrast, Triton X-100 (0.1%, 1.0%) caused rapid inactivation with a constant level of residual infectivity.

negative: Novel Coronavirus and Related Public Health Interventions Are Negatively Impacting Mental Health Services

negative: Return to Play in Asthma and Pulmonary Conditions In football (soccer), an athlete’s cardiopulmonary system consistently operates in a sinusoidal manner with numerous episodes of low- and high-intensity surges. This demand requires an athlete to have the most ideal function to perform at a high level. Multiple pulmonary processes can influence an athlete’s ability to perform by interfering with the pulmonary system’s primary function of ventilation and perfusion to try to optimize gas exchange. In this chapter, we will discuss some of the more common pathology that can affect this delicate balance. Some of the more common, but important, conditions such as asthma, exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB), pneumothorax, and pulmonary infections will be addressed, as each are readily seen, by sports medicine teams, caring for the football players. The discussion will begin with how those conditions are diagnosed through history and advanced testing and will be followed by treatment with environmental trigger modification, pharmacologic interventions, and lastly return to play criteria.

negative: Air quality status during 2020 Malaysia Movement Control Order (MCO) due to 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pandemic Abstract An outbreak of respiratory illness which is proven to be infected by a 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) officially named as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first detected in Wuhan, China and has spread rapidly in other parts of China as well as other countries around the world, including Malaysia. The first case in Malaysia was identified on 25 January 2020 and the number of cases continue to rise since March 2020. Therefore, 2020 Malaysia Movement Control Order (MCO) was implemented with the aim to isolate the source of the COVID-19 outbreak. As a result, there were fewer number of motor vehicles on the road and the operation of industries was suspended, ergo reducing emissions of hazardous air pollutants in the atmosphere. We had acquired the Air Pollutant Index (API) data from the Department of Environment Malaysia on hourly basis before and during the MCO with the aim to track the changes of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at 68 air quality monitoring stations. It was found that the PM2.5 concentrations showed a high reduction of up to 58.4% during the MCO. Several red zone areas (>41 confirmed COVID-19 cases) had also reduced of up to 28.3% in the PM2.5 concentrations variation. The reduction did not solely depend on MCO, thus the researchers suggest a further study considering the influencing factors that need to be adhered to in the future.

negative: Defining Natural Hazards – Large Scale Hazards The natural forces at work on planet Earth have been an integral part of life since the dawn of mankind. The impacts of hazards of natural origin can range from affecting infrastructure, personal possessions, and ecosystems to negatively affecting individuals’ psychosocial wellbeing. Disasters are the aftermath of hazards caused by natural phenomena, set off by shifts in tectonic plates or atmospheric interactions in populated areas. The extant literature offers a variety of ways to classify natural hazards. For example, they can be categorized by their origin – geological, hydrometeorological or biophysical; by their nature and speed – permanent, ephemeral or episodic; or on the basis of their size or scale – large, medium or small. Adopting the last of the three classification schemes, this chapter presents large scale hazards, which are more likely to occur on the North American continent, in alphabetical order. The list of hazards includes biophysical hazards, droughts, earthquakes, extreme weather, floods, forest fires, ice storms and hurricanes. To help readers follow the material, the chapter draws heavily on recent examples.

negative: Broadening of Neutralization Activity to Directly Block a Dominant Antibody-Driven SARS-Coronavirus Evolution Pathway Phylogenetic analyses have provided strong evidence that amino acid changes in spike (S) protein of animal and human SARS coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) during and between two zoonotic transfers (2002/03 and 2003/04) are the result of positive selection. While several studies support that some amino acid changes between animal and human viruses are the result of inter-species adaptation, the role of neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) in driving SARS-CoV evolution, particularly during intra-species transmission, is unknown. A detailed examination of SARS-CoV infected animal and human convalescent sera could provide evidence of nAb pressure which, if found, may lead to strategies to effectively block virus evolution pathways by broadening the activity of nAbs. Here we show, by focusing on a dominant neutralization epitope, that contemporaneous- and cross-strain nAb responses against SARS-CoV spike protein exist during natural infection. In vitro immune pressure on this epitope using 2002/03 strain-specific nAb 80R recapitulated a dominant escape mutation that was present in all 2003/04 animal and human viruses. Strategies to block this nAb escape/naturally occurring evolution pathway by generating broad nAbs (BnAbs) with activity against 80R escape mutants and both 2002/03 and 2003/04 strains were explored. Structure-based amino acid changes in an activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID) “hot spot” in a light chain CDR (complementarity determining region) alone, introduced through shuffling of naturally occurring non-immune human VL chain repertoire or by targeted mutagenesis, were successful in generating these BnAbs. These results demonstrate that nAb-mediated immune pressure is likely a driving force for positive selection during intra-species transmission of SARS-CoV. Somatic hypermutation (SHM) of a single VL CDR can markedly broaden the activity of a strain-specific nAb. The strategies investigated in this study, in particular the use of structural information in combination of chain-shuffling as well as hot-spot CDR mutagenesis, can be exploited to broaden neutralization activity, to improve anti-viral nAb therapies, and directly manipulate virus evolution.

negative: Healthy people 2100: modeling population health impacts of climate change Quantitatively estimating the potential health impacts of climate change is facilitated by multi-determinant models that integrate micro- to macro-level exposures and processes that influence disease occurrence, including the public health responses, in order to identify regions and population groups that may be more vulnerable. Although progress has been made in constructing systems-based models, considerable work is required to address key issues of quantification of the climate-health associations and the factors that affect those associations; specification of model(s) appropriate to incorporate climate change, adaptation, and mitigation policies; incorporation of thresholds; incorporation of pathways of public health development; and quantification of uncertainties.

negative: Social and environmental risk factors in the emergence of infectious diseases Fifty years ago, the age-old scourge of infectious disease was receding in the developed world in response to improved public health measures, while the advent of antibiotics, better vaccines, insecticides and improved surveillance held the promise of eradicating residual problems. By the late twentieth century, however, an increase in the emergence and re-emergence of infectious diseases was evident in many parts of the world. This upturn looms as the fourth major transition in human–microbe relationships since the advent of agriculture around 10,000 years ago. About 30 new diseases have been identified, including Legionnaires' disease, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), hepatitis C, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)/variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), Nipah virus, several viral hemorrhagic fevers and, most recently, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza. The emergence of these diseases, and resurgence of old ones like tuberculosis and cholera, reflects various changes in human ecology: rural-to-urban migration resulting in high-density peri-urban slums; increasing long-distance mobility and trade; the social disruption of war and conflict; changes in personal behavior; and, increasingly, human-induced global changes, including widespread forest clearance and climate change. Political ignorance, denial and obduracy (as with HIV/AIDS) further compound the risks. The use and misuse of medical technology also pose risks, such as drug-resistant microbes and contaminated equipment or biological medicines. A better understanding of the evolving social dynamics of emerging infectious diseases ought to help us to anticipate and hopefully ameliorate current and future risks.

negative: Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions Abstract Background Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. Objectives The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. Methods We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Findings Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Conclusions Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address other health, environmental, and societal challenges.

negative: COVID-19 y enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal: preguntas surgidas de la atención y seguimiento de los pacientes durante la fase inicial de la pandemia (febrero-abril 2020) RESUMEN El COVID-19 es un síndrome respiratorio agudo grave producido por el coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 que se describió en China a finales de 2019. Actualmente hay más de tres millones de casos diagnosticados, constituyendo una situación de pandemia que ha ocasionado una crisis a nivel mundial. El efecto devastador de esta infección se debe a su alta contagiosidad y, aunque predominan las formas leves, los casos graves y la mortalidad en valores absolutos son muy elevados. La información sobre las características de la infección en la enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal tiene especial interés, y esto es debido a que estos pacientes tienen una mayor frecuentación de centros sanitarios, lo que puede incrementar el riesgo de contagio. Además, los tratamientos que se administran para el control de la actividad inflamatoria podrían modificar la evolución del COVID-19. El Grupo Español de Trabajo en Enfermedad de Crohn y Colitis Ulcerosa (GETECCU), en colaboración con el Grupo Enfermero de Trabajo en EII (GETEII), ha elaborado este documento que tiene como objetivo responder de forma práctica algunas dudas frecuentes en el tratamiento de estos pacientes. ABSTRACT COVID-19 is a disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was described in China in late 2019. There are currently more than three million diagnosed cases, constituting a pandemic which has caused a worldwide crisis. The devastating effects of this infection are due to its highly contagious nature and although mild forms predominate, in absolute values, the rates for severe forms and mortality are very high. The information on the characteristics of the infection in inflammatory bowel disease is of special interest, as these patients have higher attendance at health centres, which may increase their risk of infection. Furthermore, the treatments used to control the inflammatory activity may modify the disease course of COVID-19. The Spanish Working Group on Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis (GETECCU) and the Spanish Nurses Working Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (GETEII) have prepared this document as a practical response to some common questions about the treatment of these patients.

negative: The Response in Air Quality to the Reduction of Chinese Economic Activities during the COVID‐19 Outbreak During the COVID‐19 outbreak that took place in early 2020, the economic activities in China were drastically reduced and accompanied by a strong reduction in the emission of primary air pollutants. On the basis of measurements made at the monitoring stations operated by the China National Environmental Monitoring Center, we quantify the reduction in surface PM(2.5), NO(2), CO and SO(2) concentrations in northern China during the lockdown, which started on 23 January 2020. We find that, on the average, the levels of surface PM(2.5) and NO(2) have decreased by approximately 35 and 60 percent, respectively, between the period 1‐22 January 2020 and the period 23 January‐29 February 2020. At the same time, the mean ozone concentration has increased by a factor 1.5–2. In urban area of Wuhan, where drastic measures were adopted to limit the spread of the coronavirus, similar changes in the concentrations of PM(2.5), NO(2) and ozone are found.

negative: Protect the vulnerable from extreme heat during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: X-Ray Structure and Inhibition of 3C-like Protease from Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) is a coronavirus that infects pigs and can have mortality rates approaching 100% in piglets, causing serious economic impact. The 3C-like protease (3CL(pro)) is essential for the coronaviral life cycle and is an appealing target for the development of therapeutics. We report the expression, purification, crystallization and 2.10 Å X-ray structure of 3CL(pro) from PEDV. Analysis of the PEDV 3CL(pro) structure and comparison to other coronaviral 3CL(pro)’s from the same alpha-coronavirus phylogeny shows that the overall structures and active site architectures across 3CL(pro)’s are conserved, with the exception of a loop that comprises the protease S(2) pocket. We found a known inhibitor of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) 3CL(pro), (R)-16, to have inhibitor activity against PEDV 3CL(pro), despite that SARS-3CL(pro) and PEDV 3CL(pro) share only 45.4% sequence identity. Structural comparison reveals that the majority of residues involved in (R)-16 binding to SARS-3CL(pro) are conserved in PEDV-3CL(pro); however, the sequence variation and positional difference in the loop forming the S(2) pocket may account for large observed difference in IC(50) values. This work advances our understanding of the subtle, but important, differences in coronaviral 3CL(pro) architecture and contributes to the broader structural knowledge of coronaviral 3CL(pro)’s.

negative: Balancing public health and private wealth: lessons on climate inaction from the COVID‐19 pandemic – a report from the International Society of Dermatology Climate Change Committee

negative: Modeling projections for COVID-19 pandemic by combining epidemiological, statistical, and neural network approaches As the number of people affected by COVID-19 disease caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 ebbs and flows in different national and sub-national regions across the world, it is evident that our lifestyle and socio-economic trajectories will have to be adapted and adjusted to the changing scenarios. Novel forecasting tools and frameworks provide an arguable advantage to facilitate this adapting and adjusting process, by promoting efficient resource management at individual and institutional levels. Based on deterministic compartment models we propose an empirical top-down modeling approach to provide epidemic forecasts and risk calculations for (local) outbreaks. We use neural networks to develop leading indicators based on available data for different regions. These indicators are not only used to assess the risk of a (new) outbreak or to determine the effectiveness of a measure at an early stage, but also in parametric models to determine an effective forecast, along with the associated uncertainty. Based on initial results, we show the performance of such an approach and its robustness against inherent disturbances in epidemiological surveillance data. We foresee such a statistical framework to drive web-based automatic platforms to democratize the dissemination of prognosis results.

negative: Decoding SARS-CoV-2 transmission, evolution and ramification on COVID-19 diagnosis, vaccine, and medicine Tremendous effort has been given to the development of diagnostic tests, preventive vaccines, and therapeutic medicines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Much of this development has been based on the reference genome collected on January 5, 2020. Based on the genotyping of 6156 genome samples collected up to April 24, 2020, we report that SARS-CoV-2 has had 4459 alarmingly mutations which can be clustered into five subtypes. We introduce mutation ratio and mutation $h$-index to characterize the protein conservativeness and unveil that SARS-CoV-2 envelope protein, main protease, and endoribonuclease protein are relatively conservative, while SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and papain-like protease are relatively non-conservative. In particular, the nucleocapsid protein has more than half its genes changed in the past few months, signaling devastating impacts on the ongoing development of COVID-19 diagnosis, vaccines, and drugs.

negative: Molecular analysis of the S1 subunit of the spike glycoprotein of respiratory and enteric bovine coronavirus isolates Abstract It is unclear whether respiratory and enteric bovine coronavirus (BoCV) strains are distinctive in biological, antigenic and genetic characteristics. In the present study, we analyzed the nucleotide and amino acid sequence of the S1 subunit of the S glycoprotein, including the cleavage site, of both respiratory (n=5) and enteric (n=3) BoCV isolates including two paired isolates from the same feedlot animals and compared them with the prototype Mebus and two enteric and one respiratory BoCV strains from Quebec. A total of 75 polymorphic nucleotides were identified in the S1 subunit of the spike glycoprotein of BoCV isolates compared with the Mebus strain. These polymorphisms led to 42 amino acid changes at 38 distinct sites. The amino acid changes were distributed throughout the S1 subunit with clustering around residues 40–118, 146–179, and 458–531. Among these variations, only 19 amino acid substitutions altered the charge, hydrophobicity and surface probability of the protein. Based on phylogenetic analysis, our respiratory and enteric isolates clustered into two major groups with two subgroups. Although, there were only a few amino acid changes between the respiratory and enteric paired isolates, the other two respiratory isolates, one isolated from the same farm as a paired strain and the other from a different farm, showed more sequence diversity. Amino acid alterations in residues 113, 115, 118, 146, 148, 501, 510 and 531 of respiratory isolates conferred significant changes in the predicted secondary structure compared with the prototype winter dysentery (WD) and the calf diarrhea (CD) strains of BoCV. In conclusion, the data suggests that respiratory strains of BoCV may differ genetically from the classical calf enteric and adult WD strains.

negative: How Should the Rehabilitation Community Prepare for 2019-nCoV? Abstract With the 2019-nCoV pandemic spreading quickly in USA and the world, it is urgent that the rehabilitation community quickly understands the epidemiology of the virus and what we can and must do to face this microbial adversary at the early stages of this likely long global pandemic. The 2019-nCoV is a novel virus so the majority of world’s population does not have prior immunity to it. It is more infectious and fatal than seasonal influenza, and definitive treatment and a vaccine are months away. Our arsenal against it are currently mainly social distancing and infection control measures.

negative: Is Global BCG Vaccination Coverage Relevant To The Progression Of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic? Abstract The lower than expected number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in countries with fragile health systems is puzzling. Herein, we hypothesize that BCG vaccination policies adopted by different countries might influence the SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns and/or COVID-19 associated morbidity and mortality through the vaccine’s capacity to confer heterologous protection. We also postulate that until a specific vaccine is developed, SARS-CoV-2 vulnerable populations could be immunized with BCG vaccines to attain heterologous nonspecific protection from the new coronavirus.

negative: From severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus to 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak: similarities in the early epidemics and prediction of future trends

negative: Genotyping coronavirus SARS-CoV-2: methods and implications The emerging global infectious COVID-19 coronavirus disease by novel Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) presents critical threats to global public health and the economy since it was identified in late December 2019 in China. The virus has gone through various pathways of evolution. For understanding the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2, genotyping of virus isolates is of great importance. We present an accurate method for effectively genotyping SARS-CoV-2 viruses using complete genomes. The method employs the multiple sequence alignments of the genome isolates with the SARS-CoV-2 reference genome. The SNP genotypes are then measured by Jaccard distances to track the relationship of virus isolates. The genotyping analysis of SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the globe reveals that specific multiple mutations are the predominated mutation type during the current epidemic. Our method serves a promising tool for monitoring and tracking the epidemic of pathogenic viruses in their gradual and local genetic variations. The genotyping analysis shows that the genes encoding the S proteins and RNA polymerase, RNA primase, and nucleoprotein, undergo frequent mutations. These mutations are critical for vaccine development in disease control.

negative: Broad-spectrum coronavirus antiviral drug discovery Introduction: The highly pathogenic coronaviruses severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) are lethal zoonotic viruses that have emerged into human populations these past 15 years. These coronaviruses are associated with novel respiratory syndromes that spread from person-to-person via close contact, resulting in high morbidity and mortality caused by the progression to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS). Areas covered: The risks of re-emergence of SARS-CoV from bat reservoir hosts, the persistence of MERS-CoV circulation, and the potential for future emergence of novel coronaviruses indicate antiviral drug discovery will require activity against multiple coronaviruses. In this review, approaches that antagonize viral nonstructural proteins, neutralize structural proteins, or modulate essential host elements of viral infection with varying levels of efficacy in models of highly pathogenic coronavirus disease are discussed. Expert opinion: Treatment of SARS and MERS in outbreak settings has focused on therapeutics with general antiviral activity and good safety profiles rather than efficacy data provided by cellular, rodent, or nonhuman primate models of highly pathogenic coronavirus infection. Based on lessons learned from SARS and MERS outbreaks, lack of drugs capable of pan-coronavirus antiviral activity increases the vulnerability of public health systems to a highly pathogenic coronavirus pandemic.

negative: SARS: Solución mediante Acciones y Respuestas Sensatas

negative: Phase adjusted estimation of the number of 2019 novel coronavirus cases in Wuhan, China An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV / SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of Rt. In the first assumption, Rt was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with Rt = 1.9, 2.6 or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258 and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, Rt was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (Rt = 3.1, 2.6 and 1.9) to below 1 (Rt = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public heath intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce Rt to an ideal level and control the infection.

negative: Canadian federal support for climate change and health research compared with the risks posed. For emerging public health risks such as climate change, the Canadian federal government has a mandate to provide information and resources to protect citizens' health. Research is a key component of this mandate and is essential if Canada is to moderate the health effects of a changing climate. We assessed whether federal support for climate change and health research is consistent with the risks posed. We audited projects receiving federal support between 1999 and 2009, representing an investment of Can$16 million in 105 projects. Although funding has increased in recent years, it remains inadequate, with negligible focus on vulnerable populations, limited research on adaptation, and volatility in funding allocations. A federal strategy to guide research support is overdue.

negative: COVID-19 y enfermedad cardiovascular In December 2019, in Wuhan in the province of Hubei in China, there was a report on a group of 27 patients with a pneumonia of unknown origin, linked to exposure in a market with shellfish, fish, and live animals. In January 2020, a new strain of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was isolated in these patients. The disease caused by this virus has been given the name of COVID-19. During the initial stages of the pandemic, and given the scarcity of studies published about this, it was believed that this coronavirus only caused respiratory symptoms. However, as the number of patients increased, it was observed that cardiovascular disease had a fundamental role in the development and prognosis of the infection. The most important risk factors associated with mortality are age and the presence of comorbidities, particularly cardiovascular ones. The increase in the levels of troponin, natriuretic peptides, and D-dimer are of prognostic values in patients with an infection due to SARS-CoV-2. Patients with COVID-19 have an increased risk of acute myocardial infarction, myocarditis, heart failure, shock, arrhythmias, and sudden death, in relation to the systematic response to the virus and to the treatments needed in the acute phase. A review is presented in this article of the cardiovascular involvement due to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19).

negative: Emerging Infections and Pertinent Infections Related to Travel for Patients with Primary Immunodeficiencies In today’s global economy and affordable vacation travel, it is increasingly important that visitors to another country and their physician be familiar with emerging infections, infections unique to a specific geographic region, and risks related to the process of travel. This is never more important than for patients with primary immunodeficiency disorders (PIDD). A recent review addressing common causes of fever in travelers provides important information for the general population Thwaites and Day (N Engl J Med 376:548-560, 2017). This review covers critical infectious and management concerns specifically related to travel for patients with PIDD. This review will discuss the context of the changing landscape of infections, highlight specific infections of concern, and profile distinct infection phenotypes in patients who are immune compromised. The organization of this review will address the environment driving emerging infections and several concerns unique to patients with PIDD. The first section addresses general considerations, the second section profiles specific infections organized according to mechanism of transmission, and the third section focuses on unique phenotypes and unique susceptibilities in patients with PIDDs. This review does not address most parasitic diseases. Reference tables provide easily accessible information on a broader range of infections than is described in the text.

negative: The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing Background: After the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation. Methods and findings: We used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 6±10 in Wuhan and March 20±16 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The number of confirmed cases in cities inside Hubei Province grow exponentially, whereas those in cities outside the province increase linearly. Conclusions: The unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Initial impacts of global risk mitigation measures taken during the combatting of the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract This paper presents an analysis of risk mitigation measures taken by countries around the world facing the current COVID-19 outbreak. In light of the current pandemic the authors collated and clustered (using harmonised terminology) the risk mitigation measures taken around the globe in the combat to contain, and since March 11 2020, to limit the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus known to cause the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This overview gathers lessons learnt, providing an update on the current knowledge for authorities, sectors and first responders on the effectiveness of said measures, and may allow enhanced prevention, preparedness and response for future outbreaks. Various measures such as mobility restrictions, physical distancing, hygienic measures, socio-economic restrictions, communication and international support mechanisms have been clustered and are reviewed in terms of the nature of the actions taken and their qualitative early-perceived impact. At the time of writing, it is still too premature to express the quantitative effectiveness of each risk mitigation cluster, but it seems that the best mitigation results are reported when applying a combination of voluntary and enforceable measures.

negative: RAN translation and frameshifting as translational challenges at simple repeats of human neurodegenerative disorders Repeat-associated disorders caused by expansions of short sequences have been classified as coding and noncoding and are thought to be caused by protein gain-of-function and RNA gain-of-function mechanisms, respectively. The boundary between such classifications has recently been blurred by the discovery of repeat-associated non-AUG (RAN) translation reported in spinocerebellar ataxia type 8, myotonic dystrophy type 1, fragile X tremor/ataxia syndrome and C9ORF72 amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia. This noncanonical translation requires no AUG start codon and can initiate in multiple frames of CAG, CGG and GGGGCC repeats of the sense and antisense strands of disease-relevant transcripts. RNA structures formed by the repeats have been suggested as possible triggers; however, the precise mechanism of the translation initiation remains elusive. Templates containing expansions of microsatellites have also been shown to challenge translation elongation, as frameshifting has been recognized across CAG repeats in spinocerebellar ataxia type 3 and Huntington's disease. Determining the critical requirements for RAN translation and frameshifting is essential to decipher the mechanisms that govern these processes. The contribution of unusual translation products to pathogenesis needs to be better understood. In this review, we present current knowledge regarding RAN translation and frameshifting and discuss the proposed mechanisms of translational challenges imposed by simple repeat expansions.

negative: Inactivating influenza viruses on surfaces using hydrogen peroxide or triethylene glycol at low vapor concentrations BACKGROUND: Surfaces in congregate settings, such as vehicles used for mass transportation, can become contaminated with infectious microorganisms and facilitate disease transmission. We disinfected surfaces contaminated with H1N1 influenza viruses using hydrogen peroxide (HP) vapor at concentrations below 100 ppm and triethylene glycol (TEG)-saturated air containing 2 ppm of TEG at 25°C. METHODS: Influenza viruses in aqueous suspensions were deposited on stainless-steel coupons, allowed to dry at ambient conditions, and then exposed for up to 15 minutes to 10 to 90 ppm of HP vapor or TEG-saturated air. Virus assays were done on the solution used to wash the viruses from these coupons and from coupons treated similarly but without exposure to HP or TEG vapor. RESULTS: After 2.5 minutes, exposure to 10-ppm HP vapor resulted in 99% inactivation. For air saturated with TEG at 25 to 29°C, the disinfection rate was about 1.3 log(10) reductions per hour, about 16 times faster than the measured natural inactivation rate under ambient conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Vapor concentrations of 10 ppm HP or 2 ppm TEG can provide effective surface disinfection. At these low concentrations, the potential for damage to even the avionics of an airplane would be expected to be minimal. At a TEG vapor concentration of 2 ppm, there are essentially no health risks to people.

negative: Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks Our ability to respond appropriately to infectious diseases is enhanced by identifying differences in the potential for transmitting infection between individuals. Here, we identify epidemiological traits of self-limited infections (i.e. infections with an effective reproduction number satisfying [Image: see text]) that correlate with transmissibility. Our analysis is based on a branching process model that permits statistical comparison of both the strength and heterogeneity of transmission for two distinct types of cases. Our approach provides insight into a variety of scenarios, including the transmission of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Arabian peninsula, measles in North America, pre-eradication smallpox in Europe, and human monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. When applied to chain size data for MERS-CoV transmission before 2014, our method indicates that despite an apparent trend towards improved control, there is not enough statistical evidence to indicate that [Image: see text] has declined with time. Meanwhile, chain size data for measles in the United States and Canada reveal statistically significant geographic variation in [Image: see text], suggesting that the timing and coverage of national vaccination programs, as well as contact tracing procedures, may shape the size distribution of observed infection clusters. Infection source data for smallpox suggests that primary cases transmitted more than secondary cases, and provides a quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of control interventions. Human monkeypox, on the other hand, does not show evidence of differential transmission between animals in contact with humans, primary cases, or secondary cases, which assuages the concern that social mixing can amplify transmission by secondary cases. Lastly, we evaluate surveillance requirements for detecting a change in the human-to-human transmission of monkeypox since the cessation of cross-protective smallpox vaccination. Our studies lay the foundation for future investigations regarding how infection source, vaccination status or other putative transmissibility traits may affect self-limited transmission.

negative: Nonstructural proteins NS7b and NS8 are likely to be phylogenetically associated with evolution of 2019-nCoV Abstract The seventh novel human infecting Betacoronavirus that causes pneumonia (2019 novel coronavirus, 2019-nCoV) originated in Wuhan, China. The evolutionary relationship between 2019-nCoV and the other human respiratory illness-causing coronavirus is not closely related. We sought to characterize the relationship of the translated proteins of 2019-nCoV with other species of Orthocoronavirinae. A phylogenetic tree was constructed from the genome sequences. A cluster tree was developed from the profiles retrieved from the presence and absence of homologs of ten 2019-nCoV proteins. The combined data were used to characterize the relationship of the translated proteins of 2019-nCoV to other species of Orthocoronavirinae. Our analysis reliably suggests that 2019-nCoV is most closely related to BatCoV RaTG13 and belongs to subgenus Sarbecovirus of Betacoronavirus, together with SARS coronavirus and Bat-SARS-like coronavirus. The phylogenetic profiling cluster of homolog proteins of one annotated 2019-nCoV protein against other genome sequences revealed two clades of ten 2019-nCoV proteins. Clade 1 consisted of a group of conserved proteins in Orthocoronavirinae comprising Orf1ab polyprotein, Nucleocapsid protein, Spike glycoprotein, and Membrane protein. Clade 2 comprised six proteins exclusive to Sarbecovirus and Hibecovirus. Two of six Clade 2 nonstructural proteins, NS7b and NS8, were exclusively conserved among 2019-nCoV, BetaCoV_RaTG, and BatSARS-like Cov. NS7b and NS8 have previously been shown to affect immune response signaling in the SARS-CoV experimental model. Thus, we speculated that knowledge of the functional changes in the NS7b and NS8 proteins during evolution may provide important information to explore the human infective property of 2019-nCoV.

negative: Chapter 18 Combustion, Reactive Hazard, and Bioprocess Safety Abstract Is bioprocess dangerous? How do we maintain safety? What is reactive hazard? What is biohazard? Chemical transformation, or biotransformation, means change. Any changes have irreversible consequences. Managing the changes can help us, but changes can also be harmful. The first line of defense on any potential unwanted transformations is isolation or containment. WHO defines four risk groups of biosafety levels. There are six key knowledge bases for biosafety. With chemical safety, substance identification is the first step. The global harmonized system of classification and labeling is generally accepted by the world health safety bodies. The hazards are divided into three categories: physical, health, and environmental. Chemical reactivity hazard is a situation where an uncontrolled reaction could result directly or indirectly in serious harm to people, property, or equipment. Fire and explosion are common reactivity hazards. To safeguard processes and facilities, one needs to first identify the threat by screening for reactivity hazards. Combustion processes proceed with chain reactions and the reaction is highly exothermic. Combined with the high activation energy, combustion depends largely on temperature. The overall reaction products can also vary (partial oxidation versus total oxidation). Partial oxidation reactions are important in the chemical industry. Pyrolysis and gasification of biomass, for example, are useful technologies in biomass conversion. An explosion is a fast, transient, exothermic reaction. Unintended and accidental explosions can occur due to: (1) the accumulation of reactive chemicals (gas, liquid, or solid) in confined space; (2) leakage of a “significant amount” of reactive chemicals (gas, liquid, or solid) to the atmosphere or environment; or (3) reactor runaway. As a bioprocess engineer, you will be responsible for creating safe processes and protecting the lives and health of your colleagues.

negative: Heat inactivation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus The culture supernatants of the emerging Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) were submitted to three temperatures over time and tested for infectivity by TCID(50) method on Vero E6 cells. At 56°C, almost 25 minutes were necessary to reduce the initial titre by 4 log(10). Increasing temperature to 65°C had a strong negative effect on viral infectivity as virucidy dropped significantly to 1 minute. On the contrary, no significant decrease in titre was observed after 2 hours at 25°C. These data might be useful in establishing biosafety measures in laboratories against MERS-CoV.

negative: Epidemiological Trends of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China Background: The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic broke out in Wuhan, China, and it spread rapidly. Since January 23, 2020, China has launched a series of unusual and strict measures, including the lockdown of Wuhan city to contain this highly contagious disease. We collected the epidemiological data to analyze the trend of this epidemic in China. Methods: We closely tracked the Chinese and global official websites to collect the epidemiological information about COVID-19. The number of total and daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China was presented to illustrate the trend of this epidemic. Results: On January 23, 2020, 835 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in China. On February 6, 2020, there were 31211 cases. By February 20, 2020, the number reached as high as 75,993. Most cases were distributed in and around Wuhan, Hubei province. Since January 23, 2020, the number of daily new cases in China except Hubei province reached a peak of 890 on the eleventh day and then it declined to a low level of 34 within two full-length incubation periods (28 days), and the number of daily new cases in Hubei also started to decrease on the twelfth day, from 3156 on February 4, 2020 to 955 on February 15, 2020. Conclusion: The COVID-19 epidemic has been primarily contained in China. The battle against this epidemic in China has provided valuable experiences for the rest of the world. Strict measures need to be taken as earlier as possible to prevent its spread.

negative: Tropism, replication competence, and innate immune responses of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in human respiratory tract and conjunctiva: an analysis in ex-vivo and in-vitro cultures BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in December 2019, causing a respiratory disease (coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19) of varying severity in Wuhan, China, and subsequently leading to a pandemic. The transmissibility and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 remain poorly understood. We evaluate its tissue and cellular tropism in human respiratory tract, conjunctiva, and innate immune responses in comparison with other coronavirus and influenza virus to provide insights into COVID-19 pathogenesis. METHODS: We isolated SARS-CoV-2 from a patient with confirmed COVID-19, and compared virus tropism and replication competence with SARS-CoV, Middle East respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus (MERS-CoV), and 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 (H1N1pdm) in ex-vivo cultures of human bronchus (n=5) and lung (n=4). We assessed extrapulmonary infection using ex-vivo cultures of human conjunctiva (n=3) and in-vitro cultures of human colorectal adenocarcinoma cell lines. Innate immune responses and angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 expression were investigated in human alveolar epithelial cells and macrophages. In-vitro studies included the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus (H5N1) and mock-infected cells as controls. FINDINGS: SARS-CoV-2 infected ciliated, mucus-secreting, and club cells of bronchial epithelium, type 1 pneumocytes in the lung, and the conjunctival mucosa. In the bronchus, SARS-CoV-2 replication competence was similar to MERS-CoV, and higher than SARS-CoV, but lower than H1N1pdm. In the lung, SARS-CoV-2 replication was similar to SARS-CoV and H1N1pdm, but was lower than MERS-CoV. In conjunctiva, SARS-CoV-2 replication was greater than SARS-CoV. SARS-CoV-2 was a less potent inducer of proinflammatory cytokines than H5N1, H1N1pdm, or MERS-CoV. INTERPRETATION: The conjunctival epithelium and conducting airways appear to be potential portals of infection for SARS-CoV-2. Both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 replicated similarly in the alveolar epithelium; SARS-CoV-2 replicated more extensively in the bronchus than SARS-CoV. These findings provide important insights into the transmissibility and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 infection and differences with other respiratory pathogens. FUNDING: US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Health and Medical Research Fund, Food and Health Bureau, Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

negative: Equine coronavirus: An emerging enteric virus of adult horses Equine coronavirus (ECoV) is an emerging virus associated clinically and epidemiologically with fever, depression, anorexia and less frequently colic and diarrhoea in adult horses. Sporadic cases and outbreaks have been reported with increased frequency since 2010 from Japan, the USA and more recently from Europe. A faeco‐oral transmission route is suspected and clinical or asymptomatic infected horses appear to be responsible for direct and indirect transmission of ECoV. A presumptive clinical diagnosis of ECoV infection may be suggested by clinical presentation, haematological abnormalities such as leucopenia due to lymphopenia and/or neutropenia. Confirmation of ECoV infection is provided by specific ECoV nucleic acid detection in faeces by quantitative PCR (qPCR) or demonstration of coronavirus antigen by immunohistochemistry or electron microscopy in intestinal biopsy material obtained ante or post mortem. The disease is generally self‐limiting and horses typically recover with symptomatic supportive care. Complications associated with disruption of the gastrointestinal barrier have been reported in some infected horses and include endotoxaemia, septicaemia and hyperammonaemia‐associated encephalopathy. Although specific immunoprophylactic measures have been shown to be effective in disease prevention for closely‐related coronaviruses such as bovine coronavirus (BCoV), such strategies have yet not been investigated for horses and disease prevention is limited to basic biosecurity protocols. This article reviews current knowledge concerning the aetiology, epidemiology, clinical signs, diagnosis, pathology, treatment and prevention of ECoV infection in adult horses.

negative: Seasonality of respiratory viruses causing hospitalizations for acute respiratory infections in children in Nha Trang, Vietnam Abstract Background Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) are the most common causes of death in children under 5 years of age. While the etiology of most pneumonia and ARI episodes is undiagnosed, a broad range of ARI-causing viruses circulate widely in South East Asia. However, the patterns and drivers of the seasonal transmission dynamics are largely unknown. Here we identify the seasonal patterns of multiple circulating viruses associated with hospitalizations for ARIs in Nha Trang, Vietnam. Methods Hospital based enhanced surveillance of childhood ARI is ongoing at Khanh Hoa General Hospital in Nha Trang. RT-PCR was performed to detect 13 respiratory viruses in nasopharyngeal samples from enrolled patients. Seasonal patterns of childhood ARI hospital admissions of various viruses were assessed, as well as their association with rainfall, temperature, and dew point. Results Respiratory syncytial virus peaks in the late summer months, and influenza A in April to June. We find significant associations between detection of human parainfluenza 3 and human rhinovirus with the month's mean dew point. Using a cross-wavelet transform we find a significant out-of-phase relationship between human parainfluenza 3 and temperature and dew point. Conclusions Our results are important for understanding the temporal risk associated with circulating pathogens in Southern Central Vietnam. Specifically, our results can inform timing of routing seasonal influenza vaccination and for when observed respiratory illness is likely viral, leading to judicious use of antibiotics in the region.

negative: COVID-19: Gastrointestinal Manifestations and Potential Fecal–Oral Transmission

negative: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Envelope Protein Regulates Cell Stress Response and Apoptosis Severe acute respiratory syndrome virus (SARS-CoV) that lacks the envelope (E) gene (rSARS-CoV-ΔE) is attenuated in vivo. To identify factors that contribute to rSARS-CoV-ΔE attenuation, gene expression in cells infected by SARS-CoV with or without E gene was compared. Twenty-five stress response genes were preferentially upregulated during infection in the absence of the E gene. In addition, genes involved in signal transduction, transcription, cell metabolism, immunoregulation, inflammation, apoptosis and cell cycle and differentiation were differentially regulated in cells infected with rSARS-CoV with or without the E gene. Administration of E protein in trans reduced the stress response in cells infected with rSARS-CoV-ΔE or with respiratory syncytial virus, or treated with drugs, such as tunicamycin and thapsigargin that elicit cell stress by different mechanisms. In addition, SARS-CoV E protein down-regulated the signaling pathway inositol-requiring enzyme 1 (IRE-1) of the unfolded protein response, but not the PKR-like ER kinase (PERK) or activating transcription factor 6 (ATF-6) pathways, and reduced cell apoptosis. Overall, the activation of the IRE-1 pathway was not able to restore cell homeostasis, and apoptosis was induced probably as a measure to protect the host by limiting virus production and dissemination. The expression of proinflammatory cytokines was reduced in rSARS-CoV-ΔE-infected cells compared to rSARS-CoV-infected cells, suggesting that the increase in stress responses and the reduction of inflammation in the absence of the E gene contributed to the attenuation of rSARS-CoV-ΔE.

negative: Determination of an Optimal Control Strategy for Vaccine Administration in COVID-19 Pandemic Treatment During decades, mathematical models have been used to predict the behavior of physical and biologic systems, and to define strategies aiming the minimization of the effects regarding different types of diseases. In the present days, the development of mathematical models to simulate the dynamic behavior of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is considered an important theme due to the quantity of infected people worldwide. In this work, the aim is to determine an optimal control strategy for vaccine administration in COVID-19 pandemic treatment considering real data from China. For this purpose, an inverse problem is formulated and solved in order to determine the parameters of the compartmental SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model. To solve such inverse problem, the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm is employed. After this step, two optimal control problems (mono- and multi-objective) to determine the optimal strategy for vaccine administration in COVID-19 pandemic treatment are proposed. The first consists of minimizing the quantity of infected individuals during the treatment. The second considers minimizing together the quantity of infected individuals and the prescribed vaccine concentration during the treatment, i.e., a multi-objective optimal control problem. The solution of each optimal control problems is obtained using DE and Multi-Objective Differential Evolution (MODE) algorithms, respectively. The results regarding the proposed multi-objective optimal control problem provides a set of evidences from which an optimal strategy for vaccine administration can be chosen, according to a given criterion.

negative: On biological evolution and environmental solutions Abstract Drawing insights from multiple disciplines is essential for finding integrative solutions that are required to tackle complex environmental problems. Human activities are causing unprecedented influence on global ecosystems, culminating in the loss of species and fundamental changes in the selective environments of organisms across the tree of life. Our collective understanding about biological evolution can help identify and mitigate many of the environmental problems in the Anthropocene. To this end, we propose a stronger integration of environmental sciences with evolutionary biology.

negative: Exposures Before Issuance of Stay-at-Home Orders Among Persons with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 - Colorado, March 2020 On March 26, 2020, Colorado instituted stay-at-home orders to reduce community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To inform public health messaging and measures that could be used after reopening, persons with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during March 9-26 from nine Colorado counties comprising approximately 80% of the state's population (Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, and Weld) were asked about possible exposures to SARS-CoV-2 before implementation of stay-at-home orders. Among 1,738 persons meeting the inclusion criteria§ in the Colorado Electronic Disease Surveillance System, 600 were randomly selected and interviewed using a standardized questionnaire by telephone. Data collection during April 10-30 included information about demographic characteristics, occupations, and selected activities in the 2 weeks preceding symptom onset. During the period examined, SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing was widely available in Colorado; community transmission was documented before implementation of the stay-at-home order. At least three attempts were made to contact all selected patients or their proxy (for deceased patients, minors, and persons unable to be interviewed [e.g., those with dementia]) on at least 2 separate days, at different times of day. Data were entered into a Research Electronic Data Capture (version 9.5.13; Vanderbilt University) database, and descriptive analyses used R statistical software (version 3.6.3; The R Foundation).

negative: Regulation of Stress Responses and Translational Control by Coronavirus Similar to other viruses, coronavirus infection triggers cellular stress responses in infected host cells. The close association of coronavirus replication with the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) results in the ER stress responses, which impose a challenge to the viruses. Viruses, in turn, have come up with various mechanisms to block or subvert these responses. One of the ER stress responses is inhibition of the global protein synthesis to reduce the amount of unfolded proteins inside the ER lumen. Viruses have evolved the capacity to overcome the protein translation shutoff to ensure viral protein production. Here, we review the strategies exploited by coronavirus to modulate cellular stress response pathways. The involvement of coronavirus-induced stress responses and translational control in viral pathogenesis will also be briefly discussed.

negative: Chemical disinfection of non-porous inanimate surfaces experimentally contaminated with four human pathogenic viruses. The chemical disinfection of virus-contaminated non-porous inanimate surfaces was investigated using coxsackievirus B3, adenovirus type 5, parainfluenza virus type 3 and coronavirus 229E as representatives of important nosocomial viral pathogens. A 10 microliter amount of the test virus, suspended in either faeces or mucin, was placed onto each stainless steel disk (about 1 cm in diameter) and the inoculum allowed to dry for 1 h under ambient conditions. Sixteen disinfectant formulations were selected for this study based on the findings of an earlier investigation with a human rotavirus. After 1 min exposure to 20 microliters of the disinfectant, the virus from the disks was immediately eluted into tryptose phosphate broth and plaque assayed. Using an efficacy criterion of a 3 log10 or greater reduction in virus infectivity titre and irrespective of the virus suspending medium, only the following five disinfectants proved to be effective against all the four viruses tested: (1) 2% glutaraldehyde normally used as an instrument soak, (2) a strongly alkaline mixture of 0.5% sodium o-benzyl-p-chlorophenate and 0.6% sodium lauryl sulphate, generally used as a domestic disinfectant cleaner for hard surfaces, (3) a 0.04% solution of a quaternary ammonium compound containing 7% hydrochloric acid, which is the basis of many toilet bowl cleaners, (4) chloramine T at a minimum free chlorine level of 3000 p.p.m. and (5) sodium hypochlorite at a minimum free chlorine concentration of 5000 p.p.m. Of those chemicals suitable for use as topical antiseptics, 70% ethanol alone or products containing at least 70% ethanol were ineffective only against coxsackievirus B3. These results emphasize the care needed in selecting chemical disinfectants for routine use in infection control.

negative: Rhinosinusitis: Establishing definitions for clinical research and patient care Background There is a need for more research on all forms of rhinosinusitis. Progress in this area has been hampered by a lack of consensus definitions and the limited number of published clinical trials. Objectives To develop consensus definitions for rhinosinusitis and outline strategies useful in clinical trials. Study design Five national societies, The American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology; The American Academy of Otolaryngic Allergy; The American Academy of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery; The American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology; and the American Rhinologic Society formed an expert panel from multiple disciplines. Over two days, the panel developed definitions for rhinosinusitis and outlined strategies for design of clinical trials. Results Committee members agreed to adopt the term “rhinosinusitis” and reached consensus on definitions and strategies for clinical research on acute presumed bacterial rhinosinusitis, chronic rhinosinusitis without polyposis, chronic rhinosinusitis with polyposis, and classic allergic fungal rhinosinusitis. Symptom and objective criteria, measures for monitoring research progress, and use of symptom scoring tools, quality-of-life instruments, radiologic studies, and rhinoscopic assessment were outlined for each condition. Conclusions The recommendations from this conference should improve accuracy of clinical diagnosis and serve as a starting point for design of rhinosinusitis clinical trials.

negative: Seasonal variation of window opening behaviors in two naturally ventilated hospital wards Abstract Natural ventilation enables personal control, and occupant behaviors in window opening play a decisive role on natural ventilation performance, indoor air quality (IAQ), and/or airborne infection risk in a hospital setting. The occupant behaviors differ significantly from different building types with different functions and living habits. Based on a one-year field measurement in two general hospital wards in Nanjing, China, the effects of air quality (i.e. indoor CO2 concentration and outdoor PM2.5 concentration) and the climatic parameters (i.e. indoor/outdoor temperature, relative humidity, and outdoor wind speed, wind direction and rainfall) on window opening/closing behaviors are analyzed. Indoor air temperature or relative humidity is found to be a dominant factor for window opening behaviors. Seasonal differences are observed for the different influences of physical factors. The outdoor temperature is found to be associated with the window opening probability negatively during the cooling season, but positively during the transition and heating seasons. The indoor relative humidity positively affects the window opening probability during the transition season while a negative impact appears during the cooling and heating seasons. Based on the seasonal variation of window opening behaviors, Logistic regression models in different seasons (cooling, transition and heating seasons) are developed to predict the window opening/closing state and are verified to be promisingly adaptable with results of accuracy bigger than 70%.

negative: Aggressive CSF diversion reverses delayed cerebral ischemia in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a case report. BACKGROUND External ventricular drain (EVD) placement temporarily provides cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion and is indicated in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) to relieve hydrocephalus. METHODS Case report. RESULTS A 56-year-old woman was admitted to our hospital with aSAH complicated by acute hydrocephalus. An EVD was placed and set to 15 mmHg. After nearly 72 h, she clinically deteriorated. A computed tomography (CT) perfusion scan showed hypoperfusion in the watershed regions in both hemispheres and CT angiogram showed mild segmental arterial narrowings. After the EVD was lowered to 5 mmHg, the radiologic perfusion abnormalities and clinical symptoms resolved. CONCLUSIONS We postulate a mechanism by which CSF diversion could decrease the risk of delayed cerebral ischemia after aSAH: CSF drainage at low levels of intracranial pressure (e.g., 5 mmHg) could improve blood flow in the microcirculation, and thus improve tissue perfusion.

negative: Impacts of Climate Change on the Environment, Economy, and Society of China This chapter evaluates the characteristics and extent of impacts of modern climate change on the hydrology, ecology, agriculture, health, economy, and society of China. The impacts of climate change on water resources, hydrological processes, the cryosphere, and ocean hydrological processes are analyzed, as well as the impacts on land ecosystems, desertification, and soil erosion. The impact of global sea-level change on marine ecology and the coastal environment is comprehensively assessed. The chapter also summarized the impact of climate change on farming, animal husbandry, forestry, aquaculture, and fisheries.

negative: How health anxiety influences responses to viral outbreaks like COVID-19: What all decision-makers, health authorities, and health care professionals need to know

negative: The species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019-nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2 The present outbreak of a coronavirus-associated acute respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is the third documented spillover of an animal coronavirus to humans in only two decades that has resulted in a major epidemic. The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2. In order to facilitate communication, the CSG proposes to use the following naming convention for individual isolates: SARS-CoV-2/host/location/isolate/date. While the full spectrum of clinical manifestations associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans remains to be determined, the independent zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 highlights the need for studying viruses at the species level to complement research focused on individual pathogenic viruses of immediate significance. This will improve our understanding of virus–host interactions in an ever-changing environment and enhance our preparedness for future outbreaks.

negative: Detection of human coronavirus strain HKU1 in a 2 years old girl with asthma exacerbation caused by acute pharyngitis Respiratory viral infections can trigger asthma attack which may lead to sever morbidity. In this report, using molecular methods, we show the chronological association between human coronavirus - HKU1 infection and asthma exacerbation in a two years and seven months old asthmatic girl who was not under treatment and was otherwise healthy.

negative: Syndromic surveillance insights from a symptom assessment app before and during COVID-19 measures in Germany and the United Kingdom: results from repeated cross-sectional analyses Background: Unprecedented lockdown measures have been introduced in countries across the world to mitigate the spread and consequences of COVID-19. While attention has focused on the effects of these measures on epidemiological indicators relating directly to the infection, there is increased recognition of their broader health implications. However, assessing these implications in real time is a challenge, due to limitations of existing syndromic surveillance data and tools. Objective: To explore the added value of mobile phone app-based symptom assessment tools as real time health insight providers to inform public health policy makers. Methods: A comparative and descriptive analysis of the proportion of all self-reported symptoms entered by users during an Ada assessment in Germany and the United Kingdom (UK) was conducted between two periods: before and after the implementation of Phase One COVID-19 measures. Additional analyses were performed to explore the association between symptom trends and seasonality, and symptom trends and weather. Differences in the proportion of unique symptoms between the periods were analyzed using Pearson's Chi-squared test and reported as Log2 Fold Changes (Log2 FC). Results: Between 48,300-54,900 symptomatic users reported 140,500-170,400 symptoms during the Baseline and Measures periods in Germany. Between 34,200-37,400 symptomatic users in the UK reported 112,100-131,900 symptoms during the Baseline and Measures periods. The majority of symptomatic users were female (Germany 68,600/103,200, 66.52%; UK 51,200/71,600, 72.74%). The majority (Germany 68,500/100,000, 68.45%; UK 50,900/68,800, 73.91%) were aged between 10 and 29 years, and about a quarter (Germany 26,200/100,000, 26.15%; UK 14,900/68,800, 21.65%) were between 30-59 years. 103 symptoms were reported either more or less frequently (with statistically significant differences) during the Measures as compared to the Baseline period, and 34 of these were found in both countries. The following mental health symptoms (Log2 FC, P-value) were reported less often during the Measures period: inability to manage constant stress and demands at work (-1.07, P<.001), memory difficulty (-0.56, P<.001), depressed mood (-0.42, P<.001), and impaired concentration (-0.46, P<.001). Diminished sense of taste (2.26, P<.001) and hyposmia (2.20, P<.001) were reported more frequently during the Measures period. None of the 34 symptoms were found to be different between the same dates in 2019. Fourteen of the 34 symptoms had statistically significant associations with weather variables. Conclusions: Symptom assessment apps have an important role to play in facilitating improved understanding of the implications of public health policies such as COVID-19 lockdown measures. Not only do they provide the means to complement and cross-validate hypotheses based on data collected through more traditional channels, they can also generate novel insights through a real-time syndromic surveillance system.

negative: Increased risk of endemic mosquito-borne diseases in Canada due to climate change. There are currently over 80 species of mosquito endemic in Canada-although only a few of these carry pathogens that can cause disease in humans. West Nile virus, Eastern equine encephalitis virus and the California serogroup viruses (including the Jamestown Canyon and snowshoe hare viruses) are mosquito-borne viruses that have been found to cause human infections in North America, including in Canada. Over the last 20 years, the incidence of most of these endemic mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) has increased approximately 10% in Canada, due in large part to climate change. It is anticipated that both the mosquito lifecycle and virus transmission patterns will be affected by climate change, resulting in an increase in both the range and local abundance of several important mosquito species. Laboratory studies and mathematical modelling suggest that increased ambient temperatures, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events associated with climate change will likely continue to drive mosquito vector and MBD range expansion, increasing the duration of transmission seasons and leading to MBD-related epidemics. Furthermore, Canada's endemic MBDs have complex transmission cycles, involving multiple reservoir hosts (birds and mammals), multiple pathogens and multiple mosquito species-all of which may be sensitive to climate and other environmental changes, and making forecasting of potential emerging trends difficult. These expected climate-induced changes in mosquitoes and MBDs underline the need for continued (and expanded) surveillance and research to ensure timely and accurate evaluation of the risks to the public health of Canadians.

negative: Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

negative: Rhinosinusitis: Establishing definitions for clinical research and patient care BACKGROUND: There is a need for more research on all forms of rhinosinusitis. Progress in this area has been hampered by a lack of consensus definitions and the limited number of published clinical trials. OBJECTIVES: To develop consensus definitions for rhinosinusitis and outline strategies useful in clinical trials. METHODS: Five national societies, The American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology; The American Academy of Otolaryngic Allergy; The American Academy of Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery; The American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology; and the American Rhinologic Society formed an expert panel from multiple disciplines. Over two days, the panel developed definitions for rhinosinusitis and outlined strategies for design of clinical trials. RESULTS: Committee members agreed to adopt the term “rhinosinusitis” and reached consensus on definitions and strategies for clinical research on acute presumed bacterial rhinosinusitis, chronic rhinosinusitis without polyposis, chronic rhinosinusitis with polyposis, and classic allergic fungal rhinosinusitis. Symptom and objective criteria, measures for monitoring research progress, and use of symptom scoring tools, quality-of-life instruments, radiologic studies, and rhinoscopic assessment were outlined for each condition. CONCLUSION: The recommendations from this conference should improve accuracy of clinical diagnosis and serve as a starting point for design of rhinosinusitis clinical trials.

negative: How COVID-19 could ruin weather forecasts and climate records.

negative: Drift and Conservatism in RNA Virus Evolution: Are They Adapting or Merely Changing? This chapter argues that the vast majority of genetic changes or mutations fixed by RNA viruses are essentially neutral or nearly neutral in character. In molecular evolution one of the remarkable observations has been the uniformity of the molecular clock. An analysis of proteins derived from complete potyvirus genomes, positive-stranded RNA viruses, yielded highly significant linear relationships. These analyses indicate that viral protein diversification is essentially a smooth process, the major parameter being the nature of the protein more than the ecological niche it finds itself in. Synonymous changes are invariably more frequent than nonsynonymous changes. Positive selection exploits a small proportion of genetic variants, while functional sequence space is sufficiently dense, allowing viable solutions to be found. Although evolution has connotations of change, what has always counted is natural selection or adaptation. It is the only force for the genesis of a novel replicon.

negative: Do not violate the International Health Regulations during the COVID-19 outbreak

negative: When your cap matters: Structural insights into self vs non-self recognition of 5′ RNA by immunomodulatory host proteins Cytosolic recognition of viral RNA is important for host innate immune responses. Differential recognition of self vs non-self RNA is a considerable challenge as the inability to differentiate may trigger aberrant immune responses. Recent work identified the composition of the RNA 5′, including the 5′ cap and its methylation state, as an important determinant of recognition by the host. Recent studies have advanced our understanding of the modified 5′ RNA recognition and viral antagonism of RNA receptors. Here, we will discuss RIG-I and IFIT proteins as examples of host proteins that detect dsRNA and ssRNA, respectively.

negative: MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a zoonotic virus from camels causing significant mortality and morbidity in humans in the Arabian Peninsula. The epidemiology of the virus remains poorly understood, and while case-based and seroepidemiological studies have been employed extensively throughout the epidemic, viral sequence data have not been utilised to their full potential. Here, we use existing MERS-CoV sequence data to explore its phylodynamics in two of its known major hosts, humans and camels. We employ structured coalescent models to show that long-term MERS-CoV evolution occurs exclusively in camels, whereas humans act as a transient, and ultimately terminal host. By analysing the distribution of human outbreak cluster sizes and zoonotic introduction times, we show that human outbreaks in the Arabian peninsula are driven by seasonally varying zoonotic transfer of viruses from camels. Without heretofore unseen evolution of host tropism, MERS-CoV is unlikely to become endemic in humans.

negative: T-cell immunity of SARS-CoV: Implications for vaccine development against MERS-CoV Abstract Over 12 years have elapsed since severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) triggered the first global alert for coronavirus infections. Virus transmission in humans was quickly halted by public health measures and human infections of SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) have not been observed since. However, other coronaviruses still pose a continuous threat to human health, as exemplified by the recent emergence of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in humans. The work on SARS-CoV widens our knowledge on the epidemiology, pathophysiology and immunology of coronaviruses and may shed light on MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV). It has been confirmed that T-cell immunity plays an important role in recovery from SARS-CoV infection. Herein, we summarize T-cell immunological studies of SARS-CoV and discuss the potential cross-reactivity of the SARS-CoV-specific immunity against MERS-CoV, which may provide useful recommendations for the development of broad-spectrum vaccines against coronavirus infections.

negative: Comparing the economic effects of climate change and zooanthroponosis in Korea: Prerequisites for the creative economy? Abstract Societies in the 21st century require more proactive management of risks in many areas owing to the complexities people have built into socioeconomic systems, ranging from science and technology, economics, and finance to education, entertainment, and tourism infrastructure. All these systems thrive on stability, which can easily be challenged by unexpected risks. This study compares zooanthroponosis and climate change-induced sea level rise through a cost–benefit analysis in Korea. Borrowing from other methodological approaches, this study shows that the cost–benefit estimation is consistent with the existing macroeconomic speculations, which assume potential loss of GDP due to the two risks. This paper also presents a policy alternative of creating research institutions specializing in the two risks from a cost–benefit perspective as a prerequisite for the "Creative Economy".

negative: Scientific report on the effects of farming systems on dairy cow welfare and disease

negative: A review of sutures and other skin closure materials. More than ever, dermatologic surgeons are faced with a multitude of suture and other closure materials when evaluating a surgical wound. Given there is no single material that is ideal for all situations, the physician must decide which material is best suited for that particular closure. This review seeks to summarize the major properties of common suture materials as well as other closure materials including adhesive tapes, glues and staples.

negative: Nowo pojawiające się choroby zakaźne w aspekcie bezpieczeństwa krwi The risk of transfusion-related infectious diseases, the markers for which are routinely tested, is extremely low. Recently, however, blood transfusion service faces the challenge from emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), mainly zoonotic origin. Pathogens are microorganisms, mostly viruses, that usually require vectors for their transmission to humans. The relation of some EIDs to transfusion has been proved, in other cases it is considered likely. The paper presents views on EIDs etiology and spread and explains the epidemiologic basic terminology. It describes the principles and methods of EIDs risk assessment as well as prioritization of EIDs with regard to transfusion risk. It outlines the principles of international cooperation and rapid response to newly emerging threats. More attention is devoted to such diseases as West Nile fever, malaria, dengue and chikungunya which are recently a real epidemiological threat. Preventive measures to reduce the threat of EIDs transmission have also been discussed as well as their impact on the safety and supply of blood and blood components.

negative: Pathogenic viruses: Molecular detection and characterization Abstract Pathogenic viruses are viruses that can infect and replicate within human cells and cause diseases. The continuous emergence and re-emergence of pathogenic viruses has become a major threat to public health. Whenever pathogenic viruses emerge, their rapid detection is critical to enable implementation of specific control measures and the limitation of virus spread. Further molecular characterization to better understand these viruses is required for the development of diagnostic tests and countermeasures. Advances in molecular biology techniques have revolutionized the procedures for detection and characterization of pathogenic viruses. The development of PCR-based techniques together with DNA sequencing technology, have provided highly sensitive and specific methods to determine virus circulation. Pathogenic viruses potentially having global catastrophic consequences may emerge in regions where capacity for their detection and characterization is limited. Development of a local capacity to rapidly identify new viruses is therefore critical. This article reviews the molecular biology of pathogenic viruses and the basic principles of molecular techniques commonly used for their detection and characterization. The principles of good laboratory practices for handling pathogenic viruses are also discussed. This review aims at providing researchers and laboratory personnel with an overview of the molecular biology of pathogenic viruses and the principles of molecular techniques and good laboratory practices commonly implemented for their detection and characterization.

negative: The Covid-19 pandemic in Denmark: Big lessons from a small country Abstract Denmark, a Scandinavian country of 5.8 million people has weathered the Covid-19 crisis with a relatively low rate of infection and death. Denmark has also become one of the first European countries to partially re-open its society. We offer the perspective that the combination of rapid response from the government, trust and a high level of confidence in government by Danish citizens, and the importance of social heritage contributed to the effective management of the coronavirus crisis.

negative: DNA vaccination protects mice against Zika virus-induced damage to the testes Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging pathogen causally associated with serious sequelae in fetuses, inducing fetal microcephaly and other neurodevelopment defects. ZIKV is primarily transmitted by mosquitoes, but can persist in human semen and sperm, and sexual transmission has been documented. Moreover, exposure of type-I interferon knockout mice to ZIKV results in severe damage to the testes, epididymis and sperm. Candidate ZIKV vaccines have shown protective efficacy in preclinical studies carried out in animal models, and several vaccines have entered clinical trials. Here, we report that administration of a synthetic DNA vaccine encoding ZIKV pre-membrane and envelope (prME) completely protects mice against ZIKV-associated damage to the testes and sperm and prevents viral persistence in the testes following challenge with a contemporary strain of ZIKV. These data suggest that DNA vaccination merits further investigation as a potential means to reduce ZIKV persistence in the male reproductive tract.

negative: SARS: responding to an unknown virus The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is an emerging infection caused by a novel coronavirus which first appeared in southern China at the end of 2002. In early 2003, through a single incident, it spread to Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada and Vietnam. For busy clinicians in large public hospitals, the response to the virus was initially based on ensuring a high level of protection for staff. However, as the epidemic progressed and more information became available about the virus, procedures were rationalized and the virus is currently under control worldwide. There are, however, numerous unanswered questions concerning super-spreading events, the modes of transmission of the virus and, perhaps most importantly, the rapid detection of the virus early in the course of disease. These issues need to be addressed in case the virus becomes more widespread in the near future.

negative: Animal viral diseases and global change: bluetongue and West Nile fever as paradigms Environmental changes have an undoubted influence on the appearance, distribution, and evolution of infectious diseases, and notably on those transmitted by vectors. Global change refers to environmental changes arising from human activities affecting the fundamental mechanisms operating in the biosphere. This paper discusses the changes observed in recent times with regard to some important arboviral (arthropod-borne viral) diseases of animals, and the role global change could have played in these variations. Two of the most important arboviral diseases of animals, bluetongue (BT) and West Nile fever/encephalitis (WNF), have been selected as models. In both cases, in the last 15 years an important leap forward has been observed, which has lead to considering them emerging diseases in different parts of the world. BT, affecting domestic ruminants, has recently afflicted livestock in Europe in an unprecedented epizootic, causing enormous economic losses. WNF affects wildlife (birds), domestic animals (equines), and humans, thus, beyond the economic consequences of its occurrence, as a zoonotic disease, it poses an important public health threat. West Nile virus (WNV) has expanded in the last 12 years worldwide, and particularly in the Americas, where it first occurred in 1999, extending throughout the Americas relentlessly since then, causing a severe epidemic of disastrous consequences for public health, wildlife, and livestock. In Europe, WNV is known long time ago, but it is since the last years of the twentieth century that its incidence has risen substantially. Circumstances such as global warming, changes in land use and water management, increase in travel, trade of animals, and others, can have an important influence in the observed changes in both diseases. The following question is raised: What is the contribution of global changes to the current increase of these diseases in the world?

negative: What has Changed in Community-Acquired Pneumonia in Recent Years?

negative: The impending storm: COVID-19, pandemics and our overwhelmed emergency departments

negative: Avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis attenuated live vaccines undergo selection of subpopulations and mutations following vaccination In this study, we were interested in determining if high titered egg adapted modified live infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) vaccines contain spike gene related quasispecies that undergo selection in chickens, following vaccination. We sequenced the spike glycoprotein of 12 IBV vaccines (5 different serotypes from 3 different manufacturers) directly from the vaccine vial, then compared that sequence with reisolated viruses from vaccinated and contact-exposed birds over time. We found differences in the S1 sequence within the same vaccine serotype from different manufacturers, differences in S1 sequence between different vaccine serials from the same manufacturer, and intra-vaccine differences or quasispecies. Comparing the sequence data of the reisolated viruses with the original vaccine virus, we were able to identify in vivo selection of viral subpopulations as well as mutations. To our knowledge, this is the first report showing selection of a more fit virus subpopulation as well as mutations associated with replication of modified live IBV vaccine viruses in chickens. This information is important for our understanding of how attenuated virus vaccines, including potential vaccines against the SARS-CoV, can ensure long-term survival of the virus and can lead to changes in pathogenesis and emergence of new viral pathogens. This information is also valuable for the development of safer modified live coronavirus vaccines.

negative: Monoclonal antibodies to the peplomer glycoprotein of coronavirus mouse hepatitis virus identify two subunits and detect a conformational change in the subunit released under mild alkaline conditions. Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) directed against the E2 glycoprotein of mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) have been classified according to their ability to bind to either of the two purified 90,000-molecular-weight subunits (90K subunits) of the 180K peplomeric glycoprotein E2. Correlation with previously reported information about these MAbs suggest that both of the subunits of E2 are important for viral infectivity and cell fusion. Incubation of trypsin-treated virions at pH 8.0 and 37 degrees C released only the E2N subunit from virions. The pattern of MAb reactions suggested that a conformational change occurred in the E2N subunit in association with its release from virions under mildly alkaline conditions at 37 degrees C, the same conditions which are optimal for coronavirus-induced cell fusion.

negative: Climate change and peak oil—two large-scale disruptions likely to adversely affect long-term tourism growth in the Asia Pacific Abstract Climate change and peak oil are likely to have a significant impact on future tourism growth in the Asia Pacific region. Dealing with these issues and the policies and strategies required for mitigation and adaptation need to be given far greater attention by the tourism industry and the public sector than has hitherto been the case. Existing approaches based on crisis and disaster management may be inadequate and a new approach to deal with shocks of this nature is required. This regional spotlight suggests a new approach based on the concept of disruption which is defined as an event that causes substantial and long-term change in the structure of the tourism industry.

negative: How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the ‘art of the possible’, which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for ‘good practice’ for the development and the use of predictive models.

negative: Introduction to Tropical Medicine Tropical medicine deals with infectious and noninfectious diseases geographically located between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn. It encompasses diseases that result from poverty, poor sanitation, infrastructure, and inadequate health resources. Lack of availability of clean water and food made with unhygienic practices add to the morbidity of these diseases. The tropics are reeling under the onslaught of climate change, deforestation, and air, water, and soil pollution, which worsens an already fragile health system. This article provides an overview of the definition, classification, geophysical problems, syndromic approach to common tropical infections, diagnostic challenges in the tropics, and access to medicines.

negative: 1(st) International One Health Congress Abstracts: Plenary Abstracts

negative: The threat of climate change to non-dengue-endemic countries: increasing risk of dengue transmission potential using climate and non-climate datasets BACKGROUND: Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region. METHODS: A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea. RESULTS: The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing. CONCLUSION: The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.

negative: Voluntary Cyclical Distancing: A potential alternative to constant level mandatory social distancing, relying on an 'infection weather report' COVID-19 has significantly changed our daily lives. Stay-at-home orders and forced closings of all non-essential businesses has had a significant impact on our economy. While it is important to ensure that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed, there are many questions that remain about the efficacy of extreme social distancing, and whether there are alternatives to mandatory lockdowns. This paper analyzes the utility of various levels of social distancing, and suggests an alternative approach using voluntary distancing informed by an infectious load index or 'infection weather report.'

negative: A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission between frontliners and the general public The number of COVID-19 cases is continuously increasing in different countries (as of March 2020) including the Philippines. It is estimated that the basic reproductive number of COVID-19 is around 1.5 to 4. The basic reproductive number characterizes the average number of persons that a primary case can directly infect in a population full of susceptible individuals. However, there can be superspreaders that can infect more than this estimated basic reproductive number. In this study, we formulate a conceptual mathematical model on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 between the frontliners and the general public. We assume that the general public has a reproductive number between 1.5 to 4, and frontliners (e.g. healthcare workers, customer service and retail personnel, food service crews, and transport or delivery workers) have a higher reproduction number. Our simulations show that both the frontliners and the general public should be protected or resilient against the disease. Protecting only the frontliners will not result in flattening the epidemic curve. Protecting only the general public may flatten the epidemic curve but the infection risk faced by the frontliners is still high, which may eventually affect their work. Our simple model does not consider all factors involved in COVID-19 transmission in a community, but the insights from our model results remind us of the importance of community effort in controlling the transmission of the disease. All in all, the take-home message is that everyone in the community, whether a frontliner or not, should be protected or should implement preventive measures to avoid being infected.

negative: Chapter 13 Epidemiology of Viral Infections Abstract Epidemiology is the study of the distribution, the dynamics, and the determinants of diseases in populations. The risk of virus infection and/or clinical disease is determined by characteristics both of the virus, and the levels of innate and acquired resistance in the community. Virus transmission is affected by behavioral, environmental, and ecological factors. Knowledge of these factors contributes to evidence-based policy decisions as to how best to control and prevent virus diseases. Considerable use of genome sequencing of isolates now provides useful information as to the identification of outbreak sources as well as informing the design and testing of candidate vaccines.

negative: Estimating the Relative Probability of Direct Transmission between Infectious Disease Patients Estimating infectious disease parameters such as the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary and secondary cases) and reproductive number (average number of secondary cases produced by a primary case) are important to understand infectious disease dynamics. Many estimation methods require linking cases by direct transmission, a difficult task for most diseases. Using a subset of cases with detailed genetic or contact investigation data to develop a training set of probable transmission events, we build a model to estimate the relative transmission probability for all case pairs from demographic, spatial and clinical data. Our method is based on naive Bayes, a machine learning classification algorithm which uses the observed frequencies in the training dataset to estimate the probability that a pair is linked given a set of covariates. In simulations we find that the probabilities estimated using genetic distance between cases to define training transmission events are able to distinguish between truly linked and non-linked pairs with high accuracy (area under the receiver operating curve value of 95%). Additionally only a small subset of the cases, 10% - 40% depending on sample size, need to have detailed genetic data for our method to perform well. We show how these probabilities can be used to estimate the average effective reproductive number and apply our method to a tuberculosis outbreak in Hamburg, Germany. Our method is a novel way to infer transmission dynamics in any dataset when only a subset of cases have rich contact investigation and/or genetic data.

negative: Coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19): a guide for UK GPs.

negative: The Behavior of Bacteria Designed for Biodegradation Mineralization of organic molecules by microbes is essential for the carbon cycle to operate. The massive mobilization of compounds stored in natural resources, or the introduction of xenobiotics into the biosphere, leads to unidirectional fluxes, which result in the persistance of a number of chemicals in the biosphere, and thus constitute a source of pollution. Molecular biology offers the tools to optimize the biodegradative capacities of microorganisms, accelerate the evolution of “new” activities, and construct totally “new” pathways through the assemblage of catabolic segments from different microbes. Although the number of genetically engineered microbes (GEMs) for potential use in biodegradation is not large, these recombinant microbes function in microcosms according to their design. The survival and fate of recombinant microbes in different ecological niches under laboratory conditions is similar to what has been observed for the unmodified parental strains. rDNA, both on plasmids and on the host chromosome, is usually stably inherited by GEMs. The potential lateral transfer of rDNA from the GEMs to other microbes is significantly diminished, though not totally inhibited, when rDNA is incorporated on the host chromosome. The behavior and fate of GEMs can be predicted more accurately through the coupling of regulatory circuits that control the expression of catabolic pathways to killing genes, so that the GEMs survive in polluted environments, but die when the target chemical is eliminated.

negative: Vulnerable Populations: Weathering the Pandemic Storm

negative: China’s response to a novel coronavirus stands in stark contrast to the 2002 SARS outbreak response The strengthening of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention has been a turning point in outbreak responses in the area. This represents very welcome progress and development for global health security and diplomacy.

negative: 11 Contingency Planning Emergency Response and Safety Abstract Although there is some recognition of the importance of contingency planning, far too few firms have anything beyond a contingency plan that sits on a shelf in the CEO’s office. Even in those companies with crisis management teams (CMTs), the members often do not meet to plan or even discuss how the team would function in an actual situation. The most progressive firms offer the team members, fire brigades, and employees an opportunity to preplan (contingency planning) through mock exercises that replicate industrial disasters, explosions, fires, or tornado alerts. The end result is a better-prepared team of employees ready to respond to any contingency. Unfortunately, many firms have not gone this far. Contingency planning may not have been a traditional security process, but in today’s global business environment the security organization is assuming a much greater role and responsibility for its implementation. Even prior to the events of September 11, 2001, many organizations were becoming more conscious of the need to have contingency plans. A complete contingency planning program has three major elements: 1. Emergency Response 2. Crisis Management 3. Business Continuity: Business Recovery and Business Resumption Emergency response activities involve responding to an incident, crisis or disaster and managing that incident at the scene. Should an incident escalate to the crisis or disaster stage, a CMT should take over managing the crisis to its conclusion. If the crisis or disaster does cause damage to a company building, facility or operation, the CMT should hand over to a business continuity team the responsibility of recovery and resumption. After a disaster, it is critical that the business recovers and resumes normal (pre-event) operations as soon as possible. Customers, shareholders and stakeholders expect nothing less. Executive management has the obligation to ensure contingency planning is properly considered and addressed within their company. The consequences of not planning for contingencies can be catastrophic with numerous liability issues.

negative: Coronavirus endoribonuclease targets viral polyuridine sequences to evade activating host sensors Coronaviruses (CoVs) are positive-sense RNA viruses that can emerge from endemic reservoirs and infect zoonotically, causing significant morbidity and mortality. CoVs encode an endoribonuclease designated EndoU that facilitates evasion of host pattern recognition receptor MDA5, but the target of EndoU activity was not known. Here, we report that EndoU cleaves the 5′-polyuridines from negative-sense viral RNA, termed PUN RNA, which is the product of polyA-templated RNA synthesis. Using a virus containing an EndoU catalytic-inactive mutation, we detected a higher abundance of PUN RNA in the cytoplasm compared to wild-type−infected cells. Furthermore, we found that transfecting PUN RNA into cells stimulates a robust, MDA5-dependent interferon response, and that removal of the polyuridine extension on the RNA dampens the response. Overall, the results of this study reveal the PUN RNA to be a CoV MDA5-dependent pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP). We also establish a mechanism for EndoU activity to cleave and limit the accumulation of this PAMP. Since EndoU activity is highly conserved in all CoVs, inhibiting this activity may serve as an approach for therapeutic interventions against existing and emerging CoV infections.

negative: The NIAID Integrated Research Facility at Frederick, Maryland: A unique international resource to facilitate medical countermeasure development for BSL-4 pathogens Scientists at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Integrated Research Facility at Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland coordinate and facilitate preclinical research on infectious diseases to develop medical countermeasures for high consequence pathogens. This facility is unique in that it is the only maximum containment laboratory in the world where conventional and molecular medical imaging equipment are incorporated into the design of the facility. This capability provides investigators with unique tools to dissect disease pathogenesis, evaluate the ability of animal models to recapitulate human disease, and test candidate countermeasures. Importantly, advanced molecular imaging has the potential to provide alternative endpoints to lethality. By using these alternative endpoints, investigators can reduce the number of animals used in experiments and evaluate countermeasures in sublethal models. With the incorporation of medical imaging modalities, a clinical laboratory modeled after those existing in hospitals, and a highly trained veterinary medicine team, IRF Frederick is uniquely suited to advance our understanding of emerging infectious diseases and to facilitate the development of medical countermeasures and clinical care paradigms previously considered impossible.

negative: The role and response of palliative care and hospice services in epidemics and pandemics: a rapid review to inform practice during the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract Cases of COVID-19 are escalating rapidly across the globe, with the mortality risk being especially high among those with existing illness and multimorbidity. This study aimed to synthesise evidence for the role and response of palliative care and hospice teams to viral epi/pandemics, to inform the COVID-19 pandemic response. We conducted a rapid systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines in five databases. Of 3094 papers identified, ten were included in this narrative synthesis. Included studies were from West Africa, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, the United States and Italy. All had an observational design. Findings were synthesised using a previously proposed framework according to ‘systems’ (policies, training and protocols, communication and coordination, data), ‘staff’ (deployment, skill mix, resilience), ‘space’ (community provision, use of technology) and ‘stuff’ (medicines and equipment, personal protective equipment). We conclude that hospice and palliative services have an essential role in the response to COVID-19 by: 1) responding rapidly and flexibly; 2) ensuring protocols for symptom management are available, and training non-specialists in their use; 3) being involved in triage; 4) considering shifting resources into the community; 5) considering redeploying volunteers to provide psychosocial and bereavement care; 6) facilitating camaraderie among staff and adopt measures to deal with stress; 7) using technology to communicate with patients and carers; 8) adopting standardised data collection systems to inform operational changes and improve care.

negative: What does simple power law kinetics tell about our response to coronavirus pandemic? Coronavirus pandemic of 2019-2020 has already affected over a million people and caused over 50,000 deaths worldwide (as on April 3, 2020). Roughly half of the world population has been asked to work from home and practice social distancing as the search for a vaccine continues. Though government interventions such as lockdown and social distancing are theoretically useful, its debatable whether such interventions are effective in flattening the curve, which is ceasing or reducing the growth of infection in control populations. In this article, I present a simple power law model that enables a comparison of countries in time windows of 14 days since first coronavirus related death is reported in that country. It therefore provides means to access the efficacy of above interventions.

negative: Evaluating the virucidal efficacy of hydrogen peroxide vapour Summary Background Surface contamination has been implicated in the transmission of certain viruses, and surface disinfection can be an effective measure to interrupt the spread of these agents. Aim To evaluate the in-vitro efficacy of hydrogen peroxide vapour (HPV), a vapour-phase disinfection method, for the inactivation of a number of structurally distinct viruses of importance in the healthcare, veterinary and public sectors. The viruses studied were: feline calicivirus (FCV, a norovirus surrogate); human adenovirus type 1; transmissible gastroenteritis coronavirus of pigs (TGEV, a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus [SARS-CoV] surrogate); avian influenza virus (AIV); and swine influenza virus (SwIV). Methods The viruses were dried on stainless steel discs in 20- or 40-μL aliquots and exposed to HPV produced by a Clarus L generator (Bioquell, Horsham, PA, USA) in a 0.2-m3 environmental chamber. Three vaporized volumes of hydrogen peroxide were tested in triplicate for each virus: 25, 27 and 33mL. Findings No viable viruses were identified after HPV exposure at any of the vaporized volumes tested. HPV was virucidal (>4-log reduction) against FCV, adenovirus, TGEV and AIV at the lowest vaporized volume tested (25mL). For SwIV, due to low virus titre on the control discs, >3.8-log reduction was shown for the 25-mL vaporized volume and >4-log reduction was shown for the 27-mL and 33-mL vaporized volumes. Conclusion HPV was virucidal for structurally distinct viruses dried on surfaces, suggesting that HPV can be considered for the disinfection of virus-contaminated surfaces.

negative: A permanent host shift of rabies virus from Chiroptera to Carnivora associated with recombination Bat virus host shifts can result in the spread of diseases with significant effects. The rabies virus (RABV) is able to infect almost all mammals and is therefore a useful model for the study of host shift mechanisms. Carnivore RABVs originated from two historical host shifts from bat viruses. To reveal the genetic pathways by which bat RABVs changed their host tropism from bats to carnivores, we investigated the second permanent bat-to-carnivore shift resulting in two carnivore variants, known as raccoon RABV (RRV) and south-central skunk RABV (SCSKV). We found that their glycoprotein (G) genes are the result of recombination between an American bat virus and a carnivore virus. This recombination allowed the bat RABV to acquire the head of the G-protein ectodomain of the carnivore virus. This region is involved in receptor recognition and binding, response to changes in the pH microenvironment, trimerization of G proteins, and cell-to-cell transmission during the viral infection. Therefore, this recombination event may have significantly improved the variant’s adaptability to carnivores, altering its host tropism and thus leading to large-scale epidemics in striped skunk and raccoon.

negative: Public Health Responses to and Challenges for the Control of Dengue Transmission in High-Income Countries: Four Case Studies Dengue has a negative impact in low- and lower middle-income countries, but also affects upper middle- and high-income countries. Despite the efforts at controlling this disease, it is unclear why dengue remains an issue in affluent countries. A better understanding of dengue epidemiology and its burden, and those of chikungunya virus and Zika virus which share vectors with dengue, is required to prevent the emergence of these diseases in high-income countries in the future. The purpose of this review was to assess the relative burden of dengue in four high-income countries and to appraise the similarities and differences in dengue transmission. We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar using specific keywords for articles published up to 05 May 2016. We found that outbreaks rarely occur where only Aedes albopictus is present. The main similarities between countries uncovered by our review are the proximity to dengue-endemic countries, the presence of a competent mosquito vector, a largely nonimmune population, and a lack of citizens’ engagement in control of mosquito breeding. We identified important epidemiological and environmental issues including the increase of local transmission despite control efforts, population growth, difficulty locating larval sites, and increased human mobility from neighboring endemic countries. Budget cuts in health and lack of practical vaccines contribute to an increased risk. To be successful, dengue-control programs for high-income countries must consider the epidemiology of dengue in other countries and use this information to minimize virus importation, improve the control of the cryptic larval habitat, and engage the community in reducing vector breeding. Finally, the presence of a communicable disease center is critical for managing and reducing future disease risks.

negative: What Have We Learned About Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Emergence in Humans? A Systematic Literature Review Background: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first identified in humans in 2012. A systematic literature review was conducted to synthesize current knowledge and identify critical knowledge gaps. Materials and Methods: We conducted a systematic review on MERS-CoV using PRISMA guidelines. We identified 407 relevant, peer-reviewed publications and selected 208 of these based on their contributions to four key areas: virology; clinical characteristics, outcomes, therapeutic and preventive options; epidemiology and transmission; and animal interface and the search for natural hosts of MERS-CoV. Results: Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4/CD26) was identified as the human receptor for MERS-CoV, and a variety of molecular and serological assays developed. Dromedary camels remain the only documented zoonotic source of human infection, but MERS-like CoVs have been detected in bat species globally, as well as in dromedary camels throughout the Middle East and Africa. However, despite evidence of camel-to-human MERS-CoV transmission and cases apparently related to camel contact, the source of many primary cases remains unknown. There have been sustained health care-associated human outbreaks in Saudi Arabia and South Korea, the latter originating from one traveler returning from the Middle East. Transmission mechanisms are poorly understood; for health care, this may include environmental contamination. Various potential therapeutics have been identified, but not yet evaluated in human clinical trials. At least one candidate vaccine has progressed to Phase I trials. Conclusions: There has been substantial MERS-CoV research since 2012, but significant knowledge gaps persist, especially in epidemiology and natural history of the infection. There have been few rigorous studies of baseline prevalence, transmission, and spectrum of disease. Terms such as “camel exposure” and the epidemiological relationships of cases should be clearly defined and standardized. We strongly recommend a shared and accessible registry or database. Coronaviruses will likely continue to emerge, arguing for a unified “One Health” approach.

negative: SARS-CoV-2 infection in health care workers: a retrospective analysis and a model study Background There had been a preliminary occurrence of human-to-human transmissions between healthcare workers (HCWs), but risk factors in the susceptibility for COVID-19, and infection patterns among HCWs have largely remained unknown. Methods Retrospective data collection on demographics, lifestyles, contact status with infected subjects for 118 HCWs (include 12 COVID-19 HCWs) from a single-center. Sleep quality and working pressure were evaluated by Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and The Nurse Stress Index (NSI), respectively. Follow-up duration was from Dec 25, 2019, to Feb 15, 2020. Risk factors and transmission models of COVID-19 among HCWs were analyzed and constructed. Findings A high proportion of COVID-19 HCWs had engaged in night shift-work (75.0% vs. 40.6%) and felt they were working under pressure (66.7% vs. 32.1%) than uninfected HCWs. COVID-19 HCWs had higher total scores of PSQI and NSI than uninfected HCWs. Furthermore, these scores were both positively associated with COVID-19 risk. An individual-based model (IBM) estimated the outbreak duration among HCWs in a non-typical COVID-19 ward at 62-80 days and the basic reproduction number =1.27 [1.06, 1.61]. By reducing the average contact rate per HCW by a 1.35 factor and susceptibility by a 1.40 factor, we can avoid an outbreak of the basic case among HCWs. Interpretation Poor sleep quality and high working pressure were positively associated with high risks of COVID-19. A novel IBM of COVID-19 transmission is suitable for simulating different outbreak patterns in a hospital setting.

negative: Human monoclonal IgG selection of Plasmodium falciparum for the expression of placental malaria-specific variant surface antigens Pregnancy-associatedPlasmodium falciparum malaria (PAM) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in African women and their offspring. PAM is characterized by accumulation of infected erythrocytes (IEs) that adhere to chondroitin sulphate A (CSA) in the placental intervillous space. We show here that human monoclonal IgG antibodies with specificity for variant surface antigens (VSA) specifically expressed by CSA-adhering IEs (VSA(PAM)) can be used in vitro to select parasites from nonpregnant donors to express VSA(PAM) and that this selection for VSA(PAM) expression results in preferential transcription of var2csa. The results corroborate current efforts to develop PAM-specific vaccines based on VAR2CSA.

negative: Chapter Two Coronavirus Spike Protein and Tropism Changes Abstract Coronaviruses (CoVs) have a remarkable potential to change tropism. This is particularly illustrated over the last 15 years by the emergence of two zoonotic CoVs, the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)- and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV. Due to their inherent genetic variability, it is inevitable that new cross-species transmission events of these enveloped, positive-stranded RNA viruses will occur. Research into these medical and veterinary important pathogens—sparked by the SARS and MERS outbreaks—revealed important principles of inter- and intraspecies tropism changes. The primary determinant of CoV tropism is the viral spike (S) entry protein. Trimers of the S glycoproteins on the virion surface accommodate binding to a cell surface receptor and fusion of the viral and cellular membrane. Recently, high-resolution structures of two CoV S proteins have been elucidated by single-particle cryo-electron microscopy. Using this new structural insight, we review the changes in the S protein that relate to changes in virus tropism. Different concepts underlie these tropism changes at the cellular, tissue, and host species level, including the promiscuity or adaptability of S proteins to orthologous receptors, alterations in the proteolytic cleavage activation as well as changes in the S protein metastability. A thorough understanding of the key role of the S protein in CoV entry is critical to further our understanding of virus cross-species transmission and pathogenesis and for development of intervention strategies.

negative: Impact of building ventilation systems and habitual indoor incense burning on SARS-CoV-2 virus transmissions in Middle Eastern countries Abstract Majority of countries across the globe have employed improving building ventilation, quarantine, social distancing, and disinfections as a general measure of preventing SARS-CoV-2 virus transmissions. However, arid Middle Eastern countries with hot climate (elevated outdoor temperature and humidity levels) are experiencing a different situation. Unfortunately, these harsh ambient climatic conditions in Middle Eastern countries make it impossible for most buildings to utilize natural/mechanical ventilation systems. Besides, indoor air temperatures of most buildings are very low due to overconsumption of air conditioning, thereby, it can be a potential factor of virus spread in most residential homes and public buildings. Most importantly, habitual indoor burning of incense which is the major source of coarse (PM10; aerodynamic diameter <10 μm) and fine (PM2.5; aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) particulate matters (PM) could facilitate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 virus droplets and particles in indoor environments. In fact, it increases the spread of the virus via inhalation in these countries, especially where the wearing of masks is not regulated in public, commercial and residential buildings. It is therefore highly recommended for the relevant public health agencies to critically assess the role of poor indoor environmental conditions including the burning of incense on virus transmissions, which may help to develop control measures for the future viral outbreak effectively.

negative: Teicoplanin: an alternative drug for the treatment of coronavirus COVID-19? In December 2019, a new coronavirus, named SARS-CoV-2, has emerged from China causing pneumonia outbreaks first in the Wuhan region and have now spread worldwide because of its probable high transmission efficiency. Due to the lack of efficient and specific treatments and the need to contain the epidemic, drug repurposing appears to be the best tool to find therapeutic solution. Chloroquine, remdesivir, lopinavir, ribavirin or ritonavir have shown efficacy to inhibit coronavirus in vitro. Teicoplanin, an antibiotic used to treat staphylococci infection, previously showed efficacy to inhibit the first stage of MERS-coronarivus viral cycle in human cells. This activity is conserved on the SARS-Cov-2, thus placing teicoplanin as a potential treatment for patients with this virus.

negative: Evolution of virulence, environmental change, and the threat posed by emerging and chronic diseases Assessments of future threats posed by infection have focused largely on zoonotic, acute disease, under the rubric “emerging diseases.” Evolutionary and epidemiological studies indicate, however, that particular aspects of infrastructure, such as protected water supplies, vector-proof housing, and health care facilities, protect against the emergence of zoonotic, acute infectious diseases. While attention in the global health community has focused on emerging diseases, there has been a concurrent, growing recognition that important chronic diseases, such as cancer, are often caused by infectious agents that are already widespread in human populations. For economically prosperous countries, the immediacy of this threat contrasts with their infrastructural protection from severe acute infectious disease. This reasoning leads to the conclusion that chronic infectious diseases pose a more significant threat to economically prosperous countries than zoonotic, acute infectious diseases. Research efforts directed at threats posed by infection may therefore be more effective overall if increased efforts are directed toward understanding and preventing infectious causes of chronic diseases across the spectrum of economic prosperity, as well as toward specific infrastructural improvements in less prosperous countries to protect against virulent, acute infectious diseases.

negative: Exposures Before Issuance of Stay-at-Home Orders Among Persons with Laboratory-Confirmed COVID-19 — Colorado, March 2020 On March 26, 2020, Colorado instituted stay-at-home orders to reduce community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). To inform public health messaging and measures that could be used after reopening, persons with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 during March 9-26 from nine Colorado counties comprising approximately 80% of the state's population† (Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Denver, Douglas, El Paso, Jefferson, Larimer, and Weld) were asked about possible exposures to SARS-CoV-2 before implementation of stay-at-home orders. Among 1,738 persons meeting the inclusion criteria§ in the Colorado Electronic Disease Surveillance System, 600 were randomly selected and interviewed using a standardized questionnaire by telephone. Data collection during April 10-30 included information about demographic characteristics, occupations, and selected activities in the 2 weeks preceding symptom onset. During the period examined, SARS-CoV-2 molecular testing was widely available in Colorado; community transmission was documented before implementation of the stay-at-home order. At least three attempts were made to contact all selected patients or their proxy (for deceased patients, minors, and persons unable to be interviewed [e.g., those with dementia]) on at least 2 separate days, at different times of day. Data were entered into a Research Electronic Data Capture (version 9.5.13; Vanderbilt University) database, and descriptive analyses used R statistical software (version 3.6.3; The R Foundation).

negative: Short-term exposure to ambient air quality of the most polluted Indian cities due to lockdown amid SARS-CoV-2 Air pollution has happened to be one of the mounting alarms to be concerned with in many Indian cities. COVID-19 epidemic endow with a unique opportunity to report the degree of air quality improvement due to the nationwide lockdown in 10 most polluted cities across the country. National Air Quality Index (NAQI) based on continuous monitoring records of seven criteria pollutants (i.e. common air pollutants with known health impacts e.g. PM(10), PM(2.5), CO, NO(2), SO(2), NH(3) and O(3)) for a total of 59 stations across the cities, satellite image derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and few statistical tools are employed to derive the outcomes. NAQI results convey that 8 cities out of the 10 air quality restored to good to satisfactory category during the lockdown period. Within week+1 of the lockdown period, PM(10) and PM(2.5) concentrations have suppressed below the permissible limit in all cities. CO and NO(2) have reduced to about -30% and -57% respectively during the lockdown period. Diurnal concentrations of PM(10) and PM(2.5) have dropped drastically on the very 4(th) day of lockdown and become consistent with minor hourly vacillation. In April 2020 the AOD amount was reduced to about 36% and 18% in contrast to April 2018 and April 2019 respectively. This add-on reporting of the possible recovery extent in air quality may help to guide alternative policy intervention in form of short term lockdown so as to testify whether this type of unconventional policy decisions may be put forward to attain a green environment.. Because, despite numerous restoration plans, air pollution levels have risen unabated in these cities. However, detailed inventory needs to be focused on identifying the localized pollution hotspots (i.e. source contribution).

negative: Re-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infected host cell proteomics time-course data by impact pathway analysis and network analysis. A potential link with inflammatory response The disease known as coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), potentially caused by an outbreak of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, has hit the world hard, and has led to an unprecedent health and economic crisis. In order to develop treatment options able to stop or ameliorate SARS-CoV-2 effects, we need to understand the biology of the virus inside cells, but this kind of studies are still scarce. A recent study investigated translatome and proteome host cell changes induced in vitro by SARS-CoV-2. In the present study, we use the publicly available proteomics data from this study to re-analyze the mechanisms altered by the virus infection by impact pathways analysis and network analysis. Proteins linked to inflammatory response, but also proteins related to chromosome segregation during mitosis, were found to be regulated. The up-regulation of the inflammatory-related proteins observed could be linked to the propagation of inflammatory reaction and lung injury that is observed in advanced stages of COVID-19 patients.

negative: Preparing for the Perpetual Challenges of Pandemics of Coronavirus Infections with Special Focus on SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19, arising from novel, zoonotic coronavirus-2, has gripped the world in a pandemic. The present chapter discusses the current internationally implemented pandemic preparedness strategies succeeding/recommended to curb the COVID-19 threat to humankind. The updated phase-wise categorization of a pandemic as recommended by the WHO is described, and associated innovations in surveillance, response, and medical measures/advisory in practice across the globe are elaborated. From a bird’s eye view, the COVID-19 pandemic management relies on revolutionizing the disease surveillance by incorporating artificial intelligence and data analytics, boosting the response strategies—extensive testing, case isolation, contact tracing, and social distancing—and promoting awareness and access to pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, which are discussed in the present chapter. We also preview the economic bearing of the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Probable Pangolin Origin of SARS-CoV-2 Associated with the COVID-19 Outbreak An outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) began in the city of Wuhan in China and has widely spread worldwide. Currently, it is vital to explore potential intermediate hosts of SARS-CoV-2 to control COVID-19 spread. Therefore, we reinvestigated published data from pangolin lung samples from which SARS-CoV-like CoVs were detected by Liu et al. [1]. We found genomic and evolutionary evidence of the occurrence of a SARS-CoV-2-like CoV (named Pangolin-CoV) in dead Malayan pangolins. Pangolin-CoV is 91.02% and 90.55% identical to SARS-CoV-2 and BatCoV RaTG13, respectively, at the whole-genome level. Aside from RaTG13, Pangolin-CoV is the most closely related CoV to SARS-CoV-2. The S1 protein of Pangolin-CoV is much more closely related to SARS-CoV-2 than to RaTG13. Five key amino acid residues involved in the interaction with human ACE2 are completely consistent between Pangolin-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, but four amino acid mutations are present in RaTG13. Both Pangolin-CoV and RaTG13 lost the putative furin recognition sequence motif at S1/S2 cleavage site that can be observed in the SARS-CoV-2. Conclusively, this study suggests that pangolin species are a natural reservoir of SARS-CoV-2-like CoVs.

negative: Ambient Temperature and Major Infectious Diseases in China Infectious diseases are a group of diseases which have complex transmission ways and various influencing factors. Clarifying the correlation between ambient temperature and major infectious diseases in China is a crucial step toward the successful control of infectious diseases including vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, food-borne diseases, respiratory infectious diseases, etc. and the implementations of climate change adaption strategy and measures in China. However, no study has systematically reviewed the available evidences on the impact of ambient temperature on the incidence of major infectious diseases, and such information is essential for policymakers and stakeholders to take specific actions to control infectious diseases and protect the vulnerable population in the future. In order to fill this gap, we systematically review the current evidence for the effect of ambient temperature on major infectious diseases in China. The findings could provide explicit information for the scientific prevention and control of infectious diseases in China.

negative: Severe acute respiratory syndrome and dentistry A retrospective view ABSTRACT Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which has created panic in Asia and in some parts of North America, is the first epidemic of the new century. Although it has been well-contained, sporadic cases continue to emerge. Objectives The authors trace the emergence of the SARS outbreak from southern China and its spread worldwide, discuss the viral etiology of the infection and its clinical features, and review the infection control guidelines issued during the outbreak by the health authorities in Hong Kong, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization and the American Dental Association. They also review the prospects for a new outbreak and preventive measures. Overview The disease, which is caused by a novel coronavirus termed the “SARS coronavirus,” or SARS-CoV, essentially spreads through droplet infection and affects people of any age. It has a mortality rate ranging from 10 to 15 percent. A major hallmark of this disease has been the rate at which it has affected health care workers through nosocomial transmission; in some countries, up to one-fourth to one-third of those infected were in this category. However, no dental health care worker has been affected by SARS in a nosocomial or dental setting. Conclusions and Clinical Implications Researchers believe that a combination of factors, including the universal infection control measures that the dental community has implemented and/or the low degree of viral shedding in the prodromal phase of SARS, may have obviated the spread of the disease in dental settings. The dental community should reflect on this outbreak to reinforce the currently applied infection control measures.

negative: Chapter 5 The Value of the Tree of Life Abstract The value of the Tree of Life to human well-being and survival is enormous—our species simply cannot thrive without a biodiverse planet; that is, a healthy Tree of Life. The vast importance of the Tree of Life falls into several general categories. First, the immense overall importance of biodiversity not only involves providing food, medicines, and ecosystem services such as clean air and water, but also a second major theme of this chapter is the importance to human well-being of knowledge of how species are related. Knowledge of how organisms are related has predictive value. We all know from our own family trees that relationships matter. For example, if a close relative has a disease or cancer that is genetically inherited, we realize that there is a chance we may have inherited that trait. Similarly, broad knowledge of relationships is fundamental, providing crucial new information regarding the discovery of medicines, combatting disease, crop improvement, while also providing insight into the study of ecosystem function and services (clean air and water). Knowledge of species relationships and the Tree of Life can help in the discovery of new medicines—closely related organisms produce similar chemicals; similarly, that knowledge of relationships is essential to improve crops by identifying close wild relatives that may have important traits (disease resistance, drought tolerance). Knowledge of the Tree of Life can also aid in the study of ecology and conservation efforts. As closely related species will often respond in similar ways to environmental factors such as temperature and moisture availability, the Tree of Life can also provide critical information in predicting how species may respond to climate change.

negative: Early Warning Systems A State of the Art Analysis and Future Directions

negative: Inactivation of surrogate coronaviruses on hard surfaces by health care germicides BACKGROUND: In the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, finding viral nucleic acids on hospital surfaces suggested surfaces could play a role in spread in health care environments. Surface disinfection may interrupt transmission, but few data exist on the effectiveness of health care germicides against coronaviruses on surfaces. METHODS: The efficacy of health care germicides against 2 surrogate coronaviruses, mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) and transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV), was tested using the quantitative carrier method on stainless steel surfaces. Germicides were o-phenylphenol/p-tertiary amylphenol) (a phenolic), 70% ethanol, 1:100 sodium hypochlorite, ortho-phthalaldehyde (OPA), instant hand sanitizer (62% ethanol), and hand sanitizing spray (71% ethanol). RESULTS: After 1-minute contact time, for TGEV, there was a log(10) reduction factor of 3.2 for 70% ethanol, 2.0 for phenolic, 2.3 for OPA, 0.35 for 1:100 hypochlorite, 4.0 for 62% ethanol, and 3.5 for 71% ethanol. For MHV, log(10) reduction factors were 3.9 for 70% ethanol, 1.3 for phenolic, 1.7 for OPA, 0.62 for 1:100 hypochlorite, 2.7 for 62% ethanol, and 2.0 for 71% ethanol. CONCLUSION: Only ethanol reduced infectivity of the 2 coronaviruses by >3-log(10) after 1 minute. Germicides must be chosen carefully to ensure they are effective against viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus.

negative: A hypervariable region within the 3' cis-acting element of the murine coronavirus genome is nonessential for RNA synthesis but affects pathogenesis. The 3' cis-acting element for mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) RNA synthesis resides entirely within the 301-nucleotide 3' untranslated region (3' UTR) of the viral genome and consists of three regions. Encompassing the upstream end of the 3' UTR are a bulged stem-loop and an overlapping RNA pseudoknot, both of which are essential to MHV and common to all group 2 coronaviruses. At the downstream end of the genome is the minimal signal for initiation of negative-strand RNA synthesis. Between these two ends is a hypervariable region (HVR) that is only poorly conserved between MHV and other group 2 coronaviruses. Paradoxically, buried within the HVR is an octanucleotide motif (oct), 5'-GGAAGAGC-3', which is almost universally conserved in coronaviruses and is therefore assumed to have a critical biological function. We conducted an extensive mutational analysis of the HVR. Surprisingly, this region tolerated numerous deletions, rearrangements, and point mutations. Most striking, a mutant deleted of the entire HVR was only minimally impaired in tissue culture relative to the wild type. By contrast, the HVR deletion mutant was highly attenuated in mice, causing no signs of clinical disease and minimal weight loss compared to wild-type virus. Correspondingly, replication of the HVR deletion mutant in the brains of mice was greatly reduced compared to that of the wild type. Our results show that neither the HVR nor oct is essential for the basic mechanism of MHV RNA synthesis in tissue culture. However, the HVR appears to play a significant role in viral pathogenesis.

negative: Human Coronaviruses: A Review of Virus–Host Interactions Human coronaviruses (HCoVs) are known respiratory pathogens associated with a range of respiratory outcomes. In the past 14 years, the onset of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) have thrust HCoVs into spotlight of the research community due to their high pathogenicity in humans. The study of HCoV-host interactions has contributed extensively to our understanding of HCoV pathogenesis. In this review, we discuss some of the recent findings of host cell factors that might be exploited by HCoVs to facilitate their own replication cycle. We also discuss various cellular processes, such as apoptosis, innate immunity, ER stress response, mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway and nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) pathway that may be modulated by HCoVs.

negative: More effective strategies are required to strengthen public awareness of COVID-19: Evidence from Google Trends Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed stress on the health and well-being of both Chinese people and the public worldwide. Global public interest in this new issue largely reflects people's attention to COVID-19 and their willingness to take precautionary actions. This study aimed to examine global public awareness of COVID-19 using Google Trends. Methods: Using Google Trends, we retrieved public query data for terms of "2019-nCoV + SARS-CoV-2 + novel coronavirus + new coronavirus + COVID-19 + Corona Virus Disease 2019" between the 31st December 2019 and the 24th February 2020 in six major English-speaking countries, including the USA, the UK, Canada, Ireland, Australia, and New Zealand. Dynamic series analysis demonstrates the overall change trend of relative search volume (RSV) for the topic on COVID-19. We compared the top-ranking related queries and sub-regions distribution of RSV about COVID-19 across different countries. The correlation between daily search volumes on the topic related to COVID-19 and the daily number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 was analyzed. Results: The overall search trend of RSV regarding COVID-19 increased during the early period of observing time and reached the first apex on 31st January 2020. A shorter response time and a longer duration of public attention to COVID-19 was observed in public from the USA, the UK, Australia, and Canada, than that in Ireland and New Zealand. A slightly positive correlation between daily RSV about COVID-19 and the daily number of confirmed cases was observed (P < 0.05). People across countries presented a various interest to the RSV on COVID-19, and public awareness of COVID-19 was different in various sub-regions within countries. Conclusions: The results suggest that public response time to COVID-19 was different across countries, and the overall duration of public attention was short. The current study reminds us that governments should strengthen the publicity of COVID-19 nationally, strengthen the public's vigilance and sensitivity to COVID-19, inform public the importance of protecting themselves with enough precautionary measures, and finally control the spread of COVID-19 globally.

negative: The Pace and Pulse of the Fight against Coronavirus across the US, A Google Trends Approach The coronavirus pandemic is impacting our lives at unprecedented speed and scale - including how we eat and work, what we worry about, how much we move, and our ability to earn. Google Trends can be used as a proxy for what people are thinking, needing, and planning. We use it to provide both insights into, and potential indicators of, important changes in information-seeking patterns during pandemics like COVID-19. Key questions we address are: (1) What is the relationship between the coronavirus outbreak and internet searches related to healthcare seeking, government support programs, media sources of different ideologies, planning around social activities, travel, and food, and new coronavirus-specific behaviors and concerns?; (2) How does the popularity of search terms differ across states and regions and can we explain these differences?; (3) Can we find distinct, tangible search patterns across states suggestive of policy gaps to inform pandemic response? (4) Does Google Trends data correlate with and potentially precede real-life events? We suggest strategic shifts for policy makers to improve the precision and effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and recommend the development of a real-time dashboard as a decision-making tool. Methods used include trend analysis of US search data; geographic analyses of the differences in search popularity across US states during March 1st to April 15th, 2020; and Principal Component Analyses (PCA) to extract search patterns across states.

negative: The Environmental Impacts of the Coronavirus The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has resulted in global lockdowns, sharply curtailing economic activity. It is a unique experiment with substantial impacts that will form the agenda for research. There are five sets of questions: the short-term impacts on emissions, the natural environment and environmental policy, including regulations and COP26; longer-term consequences from the deployment of macroeconomic monetary and fiscal stimuli, and investment in green deals; possible further deglobalisation and its impact on climate change and nature; intergenerational environmental impacts including debt and pollution burdens on future generations; and possible behavioural changes to the environment, both positive and negative.

negative: Emerging Infections and Pregnancy A key component of the response to emerging infections is consideration of special populations, including pregnant women. Successful pregnancy depends on adaptation of the woman's immune system to tolerate a genetically foreign fetus. Although the immune system changes are not well understood, a shift from cell-mediated immunity toward humoral immunity is believed to occur. These immunologic changes may alter susceptibility to and severity of infectious diseases in pregnant women. For example, pregnancy may increase susceptibility to toxoplasmosis and listeriosis and may increase severity of illness and increase mortality rates from influenza and varicella. Compared with information about more conventional disease threats, information about emerging infectious diseases is quite limited. Pregnant women's altered response to infectious diseases should be considered when planning a response to emerging infectious disease threats.

negative: Possible therapeutic role of a highly standardized mixture of active compounds derived from cultured Lentinula edodes mycelia (AHCC) in patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus. The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 disease (COVID-19) is currently, March 2020, affecting more than 100000 people worldwide and, according to the WHO (World Health Organization), a pandemic is shortly expected. The virus infects the lower respiratory tract and causes severe pneumonia and mortality in approximately 10% and 3-5%, respectively, of cases, mainly among the elderly and/or people affected by other diseases. AHCC is an α-glucan-based standardized mushroom extract that has been extensively investigated as an immunostimulant both in animals and/or in humans affected by West Nile virus, influenza virus, avian influenza virus, hepatitis C virus, papillomavirus, herpes virus, hepatitis B virus and HIV by promoting a regulated and protective immune response. Although the efficacy of AHCC has not yet been specifically evaluated with respect to SARS-CoV-2 disease, its action in promoting a protective response to a wide range of viral infections, and the current absence of effective vaccines, could support its use in the prevention of diseases provoked by human pathogenic coronavirus, including COVID-19.

negative: The Links Between Public and Ecosystem Health in Light of the Recent Ebola Outbreaks and Pandemic Emergence

negative: SLEDGE: A Simple Yet Effective Baseline for Coronavirus Scientific Knowledge Search With worldwide concerns surrounding the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there is a rapidly growing body of literature on the virus. Clinicians, researchers, and policy-makers need a way to effectively search these articles. In this work, we present a search system called SLEDGE, which utilizes SciBERT to effectively re-rank articles. We train the model on a general-domain answer ranking dataset, and transfer the relevance signals to SARS-CoV-2 for evaluation. We observe SLEDGE's effectiveness as a strong baseline on the TREC-COVID challenge (topping the learderboard with an nDCG@10 of 0.6844). Insights provided by a detailed analysis provide some potential future directions to explore, including the importance of filtering by date and the potential of neural methods that rely more heavily on count signals. We release the code to facilitate future work on this critical task at https://github.com/Georgetown-IR-Lab/covid-neural-ir

negative: Progressive Adaptation: The Key to Sustaining a Growing Global Population Adaptation is an evolving long-term process during which a population of life forms adjusts to changes in its habitat and surrounding environments. Adaptation by the global community as a unit is vital to cope with the effects of increasing populations, global warming/climate change, the chemical, biological, and physical impacts on life-sustaining ecosystems, and competition for life sustaining and economically important natural resources. The latter include water, food, energy, metal ores, industrial minerals, and wood. Within this framework, it is necessary to adapt as well to changes in local and regional physical conditions brought on by natural and anthropogenic hazards, by health threats of epidemic or pandemic reach, by social conditions such as conflicts driven by religious and ethnic fanaticism, and by tribalism and clan ties.

negative: Human Coronavirus NL63 Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Patterns in Rural Coastal Kenya BACKGROUND: Human coronavirus NL63 (HCoV-NL63) is a globally endemic pathogen causing mild and severe respiratory tract infections with reinfections occurring repeatedly throughout a lifetime. METHODS: Nasal samples were collected in coastal Kenya through community-based and hospital-based surveillance. HCoV-NL63 was detected with multiplex real-time reverse transcription PCR, and positive samples were targeted for nucleotide sequencing of the spike (S) protein. Additionally, paired samples from 25 individuals with evidence of repeat HCoV-NL63 infection were selected for whole-genome virus sequencing. RESULTS: HCoV-NL63 was detected in 1.3% (75/5573) of child pneumonia admissions. Two HCoV-NL63 genotypes circulated in Kilifi between 2008 and 2014. Full genome sequences formed a monophyletic clade closely related to contemporary HCoV-NL63 from other global locations. An unexpected pattern of repeat infections was observed with some individuals showing higher viral titers during their second infection. Similar patterns for 2 other endemic coronaviruses, HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43, were observed. Repeat infections by HCoV-NL63 were not accompanied by detectable genotype switching. CONCLUSIONS: In this coastal Kenya setting, HCoV-NL63 exhibited low prevalence in hospital pediatric pneumonia admissions. Clade persistence with low genetic diversity suggest limited immune selection, and absence of detectable clade switching in reinfections indicates initial exposure was insufficient to elicit a protective immune response.

negative: A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: antibody kinetics, correlates of protection, and association of antibody responses with severity of disease The duration and nature of immunity generated in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown. Many public health responses and modeled scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks caused by SARSCoV-2 assume that infection results in an immune response that protects individuals from future infections or illness for some amount of time. The timescale of protection is a critical determinant of the future impact of the pathogen. The presence or absence of protective immunity due to infection or vaccination (when available) will affect future transmission and illness severity. The dynamics of immunity and nature of protection are relevant to discussions surrounding therapeutic use of convalescent sera as well as efforts to identify individuals with protective immunity. Here, we review the scientific literature on antibody immunity to coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 as well as the related SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV and human endemic coronaviruses (HCoVs). We reviewed 1281 abstracts and identified 322 manuscripts relevant to 5 areas of focus: 1) antibody kinetics, 2) correlates of protection, 3) immunopathogenesis, 4) antigenic diversity and cross-reactivity, and 5) population seroprevalence. While studies of SARS-CoV-2 are necessary to determine immune responses to it, evidence from other coronaviruses can provide clues and guide future research.

negative: Climate change impact on migration, travel, travel destinations and the tourism industry Background: Climate change is not only increasing ambient temperature but also accelerating the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy precipitation and droughts, and causing sea level rise, which can lead to population displacement. Climate change-related reductions in land productivity and habitability and in food and water security can also interact with demographic, economic and social factors to increase migration. In addition to migration, climate change has also implications for travel and the risk of disease. This article discusses the impact of climate change on migration and travel with implications for public health practice. Methods: Literature review. Results: Migrants may be at increased risk of communicable and non-communicable diseases, due to factors in their country of origin and their country of destination or conditions that they experience during migration. Although migration has not been a significant driver of communicable disease outbreaks to date, public health authorities need to ensure that effective screening and vaccination programmes for priority communicable diseases are in place. Population growth coupled with socio-economic development is increasing travel and tourism, and advances in technology have increased global connectivity and reduced the time required to cover long distances. At the same time, as a result of climate change, many temperate regions, including high-income countries, are now suitable for vector-borne disease transmission. This is providing opportunities for importation of vectors and pathogens from endemic areas that can lead to cases or outbreaks of communicable diseases with which health professionals may be unfamiliar. Conclusion: Health systems need to be prepared for the potential population health consequences of migration, travel and tourism and the impact of climate change on these. Integrated surveillance, early detection of cases and other public health interventions are critical to protect population health and prevent and control communicabledisease outbreaks.

negative: How did general practitioners protect themselves, their family, and staff during the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong? CONTEXT Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a newly emerging infectious disease and how the frontline community doctors respond to it is not known. OBJECTIVES To explore the impact of SARS on general practitioners (GPs) in Hong Kong. DESIGN A cross sectional survey. SETTING Community based primary care clinics. PARTICIPANTS 183 family medicine tutors affiliated with a local university. Postal survey sent to all tutors with a 74.8% response rate. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Change of clinical behaviour and practices during the epidemic; anxiety level of primary care doctors. RESULTS All agreed SARS had changed their clinical practices. Significant anxiety was found in family doctors. Three quarters of respondents recalled requesting more investigations while a quarter believed they had over-prescribed antibiotics. GPs who were exposed to SARS or who had worked in high infection districts were less likely to quarantine themselves (10.8% versus 33.3%; p<0.01; 6.5% versus 27.5%; p<0.01 respectively). Exposure to SARS, the infection rates in their working district, and anxiety levels had significant impact on the level of protection or prescribing behaviour. CONCLUSION The clinical practice of GPs changed significantly as a result of SARS. Yet, those did not quarantine themselves suggesting other factors may have some part to play. As failure to apply isolation precautions to suspected cases of SARS was one major reason for its spread, a contingency plan from the government to support family doctors is of utmost importance. Interface between private and public sectors are needed in Hong Kong to prepare for any future epidemics.

negative: Murine Coronavirus Spike Glycoprotein Mediates Degree of Viral Spread, Inflammation, and Virus-Induced Immunopathology in the Central Nervous System Abstract The mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) spike glycoprotein is a major determinant of neurovirulence. We investigated how alterations in spike affect neurovirulence using two isogenic recombinant viruses differing exclusively in spike. S4R, containing the MHV-4 spike gene, is dramatically more neurovirulent than SA59R, containing the MHV-A59 spike gene (J. J. Phillips, M. M. Chua, E. Lavi, and S. R. Weiss, 1999, J. Virol. 73, 7752–7760). We examined the contribution of differences in cellular tropism, viral spread, and the immune response to infection to the differential neurovirulence of S4R and SA59R. MHV-4 spike-mediated neurovirulence was associated with extensive viral spread in the brain in both neurons and astrocytes. Infection of primary hippocampal neuron cultures demonstrated that S4R spread more rapidly than SA59R and suggested that spread may occur between cells in close physical contact. In addition, S4R infection induced a massive influx of lymphocytes into the brain, a higher percentage of CD8+ T cells, and a higher frequency of MHV-specific CD8+ T cells relative SA59R infection. Despite this robust and viral-specific immune response to S4R infection, infection of RAG1−/− mice suggested that immune-mediated pathology also contributes to the high neurovirulence of S4R.

negative: Human and bovine viruses in the Milwaukee River watershed: Hydrologically relevant representation and relations with environmental variables Abstract To examine the occurrence, hydrologic variability, and seasonal variability of human and bovine viruses in surface water, three stream locations were monitored in the Milwaukee River watershed in Wisconsin, USA, from February 2007 through June 2008. Monitoring sites included an urban subwatershed, a rural subwatershed, and the Milwaukee River at the mouth. To collect samples that characterize variability throughout changing hydrologic periods, a process control system was developed for unattended, large-volume (56–2800L) filtration over extended durations. This system provided flow-weighted mean concentrations during runoff and extended (24-h) low-flow periods. Human viruses and bovine viruses were detected by real-time qPCR in 49% and 41% of samples (n=63), respectively. All human viruses analyzed were detected at least once including adenovirus (40% of samples), GI norovirus (10%), enterovirus (8%), rotavirus (6%), GII norovirus (1.6%) and hepatitis A virus (1.6%). Three of seven bovine viruses analyzed were detected including bovine polyomavirus (32%), bovine rotavirus (19%), and bovine viral diarrhea virus type 1 (5%). Human viruses were present in 63% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt, and 20% of low-flow samples. Maximum human virus concentrations exceeded 300genomiccopies/L. Bovine viruses were present in 46% of runoff samples resulting from precipitation and snowmelt and 14% of low-flow samples. The maximum bovine virus concentration was 11genomiccopies/L. Statistical modeling indicated that stream flow, precipitation, and season explained the variability of human viruses in the watershed, and hydrologic condition (runoff event or low-flow) and season explained the variability of the sum of human and bovine viruses; however, no model was identified that could explain the variability of bovine viruses alone. Understanding the factors that affect virus fate and transport in rivers will aid watershed management for minimizing human exposure and disease transmission.

negative: Comparative tropism, replication kinetics, and cell damage profiling of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV with implications for clinical manifestations, transmissibility, and laboratory studies of COVID-19: an observational study Summary Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was reported from China in January, 2020. SARS-CoV-2 is efficiently transmitted from person to person and, in 2 months, has caused more than 82 000 laboratory-confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and 2800 deaths in 46 countries. The total number of cases and deaths has surpassed that of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV). Although both COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) manifest as pneumonia, COVID-19 is associated with apparently more efficient transmission, fewer cases of diarrhoea, increased mental confusion, and a lower crude fatality rate. However, the underlying virus–host interactive characteristics conferring these observations on transmissibility and clinical manifestations of COVID-19 remain unknown. Methods We systematically investigated the cellular susceptibility, species tropism, replication kinetics, and cell damage of SARS-CoV-2 and compared findings with those for SARS-CoV. We compared SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV replication in different cell lines with one-way ANOVA. For the area under the curve comparison between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV replication in Calu3 (pulmonary) and Caco2 (intestinal) cells, we used Student's t test. We analysed cell damage induced by SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV with one-way ANOVA. Findings SARS-CoV-2 infected and replicated to comparable levels in human Caco2 cells and Calu3 cells over a period of 120 h (p=0·52). By contrast, SARS-CoV infected and replicated more efficiently in Caco2 cells than in Calu3 cells under the same multiplicity of infection (p=0·0098). SARS-CoV-2, but not SARS-CoV, replicated modestly in U251 (neuronal) cells (p=0·036). For animal species cell tropism, both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 replicated in non-human primate, cat, rabbit, and pig cells. SARS-CoV, but not SARS-CoV-2, infected and replicated in Rhinolophus sinicus bat kidney cells. SARS-CoV-2 consistently induced significantly delayed and milder levels of cell damage than did SARS-CoV in non-human primate cells (VeroE6, p=0·016; FRhK4, p=0·0004). Interpretation As far as we know, our study presents the first quantitative data for tropism, replication kinetics, and cell damage of SARS-CoV-2. These data provide novel insights into the lower incidence of diarrhoea, decreased disease severity, and reduced mortality in patients with COVID-19, with respect to the pathogenesis and high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 compared with SARS-CoV. Funding May Tam Mak Mei Yin, The Shaw Foundation Hong Kong, Richard Yu and Carol Yu, Michael Seak-Kan Tong, Respiratory Viral Research Foundation, Hui Ming, Hui Hoy and Chow Sin Lan Charity Fund, Chan Yin Chuen Memorial Charitable Foundation, Marina Man-Wai Lee, The Hong Kong Hainan Commercial Association South China Microbiology Research Fund, The Jessie & George Ho Charitable Foundation, Perfect Shape Medical, The Consultancy Service for Enhancing Laboratory Surveillance of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Research Capability on Antimicrobial Resistance for the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, The Theme-Based Research Scheme of the Research Grants Council, Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen, and The High Level-Hospital Program, Health Commission of Guangdong Province, China.

negative: Genomic variance of the 2019‐nCoV coronavirus There is a rising global concern for the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV). Full genomic sequences have been released by the worldwide scientific community in the last few weeks to understand the evolutionary origin and molecular characteristics of this virus. Taking advantage of all the genomic information currently available, we constructed a phylogenetic tree including also representatives of other coronaviridae, such as Bat coronavirus (BCoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome. We confirm high sequence similarity (>99%) between all sequenced 2019‐nCoVs genomes available, with the closest BCoV sequence sharing 96.2% sequence identity, confirming the notion of a zoonotic origin of 2019‐nCoV. Despite the low heterogeneity of the 2019‐nCoV genomes, we could identify at least two hypervariable genomic hotspots, one of which is responsible for a Serine/Leucine variation in the viral ORF8‐encoded protein. Finally, we perform a full proteomic comparison with other coronaviridae, identifying key aminoacidic differences to be considered for antiviral strategies deriving from previous anti‐coronavirus approaches.

negative: Changement de tropisme des coronavirus Résumé Le tropisme d’un virus se définit comme l’ensemble des cellules cibles et permissives à ce virus. Le connaître permet de déterminer le ou les organes cibles, ainsi que la ou les espèces animales pouvant être infectées. Le changement de tropisme permet aux virus d’évoluer, notamment en leur permettant de franchir la barrière d’espèce et de s’installer chez un nouvel hôte. Les coronavirus représentent un très large groupe de virus infectant de nombreuses espèces animales. Ces virus à ARN sont dotés d’un potentiel évolutif important, et leur histoire comporte plusieurs exemples de changement de tropisme ayant pour conséquence soit l’émergence d’une nouvelle maladie (coronavirus associé au SRAS, coronavirus respiratoire du porc), soit une nouvelle expression de l’infection (péritonite infectieuse fatale du chat et du furet). Summary Viral tropism is defined as the group of target cells which can be infected by this virus. Knowing viral tropism is knowing the target organ, and the animal species used as host. The variation of tropism allow for virus to evolve, cross species barriers, and infect a new host. Coronavirus family is a very large group of viruses which infect birds and mammals. These RNA viruses can rapidly evolve. In the history of coronaviruses, several examples of variations of tropism have been described, and have as consequences the emergence of a new infection (coronavirus associated with SARS, porcine respiratory coronavirus), or a new expression of the clinical presentation of the infection (fatal infectious peritonitis in cats and ferrets).

negative: COVID-19, SARS and MERS: are they closely related? Abstract Background The 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is a new human coronavirus which is spreading with epidemic features in China and other Asian countries; cases have also been reported worldwide. This novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is associated with a respiratory illness that may lead to severe pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Although related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), COVID-19 shows some peculiar pathogenetic, epidemiological and clinical features which to date are not completely understood. Aims To provide a review of the differences in pathogenesis, epidemiology and clinical features of COVID-19, SARS and MERS. Sources The most recent literature in the English language regarding COVID-19 has been reviewed, and extracted data have been compared with the current scientific evidence about SARS and MERS epidemics. Content COVID-19 seems not to be very different from SARS regarding its clinical features. However, it has a fatality rate of 2.3%, lower than that of SARS (9.5%) and much lower than that of MERS (34.4%). The possibility cannot be excluded that because of the less severe clinical picture of COVID-19 it can spread in the community more easily than MERS and SARS. The actual basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19 (2.0–2.5) is still controversial. It is probably slightly higher than the R0 of SARS (1.7–1.9) and higher than that of MERS (<1). A gastrointestinal route of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, which has been assumed for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, cannot be ruled out and needs further investigation. Implications There is still much more to know about COVID-19, especially as concerns mortality and its capacity to spread on a pandemic level. Nonetheless, all of the lessons we learned in the past from the SARS and MERS epidemics are the best cultural weapons with which to face this new global threat.

negative: Coronavirus, Climate Change, and a Bit of Hope

negative: Analysis of adaptive immune cell populations and phenotypes in the patients infected by SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), caused by SARS-CoV-2, has rapidly spread to most of countries in the world, threatening the health and lives of many people. Unfortunately, information regarding the immunological characteristics in COVID-19 patients remains limited. Here we collected the blood samples from 18 healthy donors (HD) and 38 COVID-19 patients to analyze changes in the adaptive immune cell populations and phenotypes. In comparison to HD, the lymphocyte percentage was slightly decreased, the percentages of CD4 and CD8 T cells in lymphocytes are similar, whereas B cell percentage increased in COVID-19 patients. T cells, especially CD8 T cells, showed an enhanced expression of late activation marker CD25 and exhaustion marker PD-1. Importantly, SARS-CoV-2 induced an increased percentage of T follicular helpher (Tfh)- and germinal center B-like (GCB-like) cells in the blood. However, the parameters in COVD-19 patients remained unchanged across various age groups. Therefore, we demonstrated that the T and B cells can be activated normally and exhibit functional features. These data provide a clue that the adaptive immunity in most people could be primed to induce a significant immune response against SARS-CoV-2 infection upon receiving standard medical care.

negative: Food Security in an Insecure Future Food security in the Middle East is directly affected by a challenging combination of ongoing destructive conflicts, a global economic downturn, widespread poverty, high population growth, corruption, intolerance, and the potentially damaging consequences of climate change. Many Arab countries demonstrate nearly all the features of those countries classified as poor, less developed, or failing to achieve the eight Millennium Goals. Even the economies of the richer oil-exporting countries in the Region have been seriously damaged by the downturn in oil and gas prices as new sources come on stream elsewhere and demand falls as a result of renewable sources of energy becoming available.

negative: COVID-19 and disruptions to food systems

negative: Amino acid substitutions and an insertion in the spike glycoprotein extend the host range of the murine coronavirus MHV-A59 Abstract The murine coronavirus [murine hepatitis virus (MHV)] is limited to infection of susceptible mice and murine cell lines by the specificity of the spike glycoprotein (S) for its receptor, murine carcinoembryonic antigen cell adhesion molecule 1a (mCEACAM1a). We have recently shown that 21 aa substitutions and a 7-aa insert in the N-terminal region of S are associated with the extended host range of a virus variant derived from murine cells persistently infected with the A59 strain of MHV (MHV-A59). We used targeted RNA recombination (TRR) to generate isogenic viruses that differ from MHV-A59 by the 21 aa substitutions or the 7-aa insert in S. Only viruses with both the 21 aa substitutions and the 7-aa insert in S infected hamster, feline, and monkey cells. These viruses also infected murine cells in the presence of blocking anti-mCEACAM1a antibodies. Thus, relatively few changes in the N-terminal region of S1 are sufficient to permit MHV-A59 to interact with alternative receptors on murine and non-murine cells.

negative: A Brave New World: Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Transitioning to Sustainable Supply and Production

negative: COVID-19: Knowns, Unknowns, and Questions The recent emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from the Hubei province in China in late 2019 demonstrates the epidemic potential of coronaviruses. The rapid spread of this virus across the world in only 2 months highlights the transmissibility of this family of viruses and the significant morbidity and mortality that they can cause. We highlight the current state of knowledge of coronavirus biology while answering questions concerning the current outbreak of SARS-CoV-2.

negative: A conceptual model for the outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action The ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, originated in the end of 2019 in Wuhan, China, has claimed more than 2200 lives and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employed the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, then computed future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.

negative: Comparative Pathogenesis Of COVID-19, MERS And SARS In A Non-Human Primate Model A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, was recently identified in patients with an acute respiratory syndrome, COVID-19. To compare its pathogenesis with that of previously emerging coronaviruses, we inoculated cynomolgus macaques with SARS-CoV-2 or MERS-CoV and compared with historical SARS-CoV infections. In SARS-CoV-2-infected macaques, virus was excreted from nose and throat in absence of clinical signs, and detected in type I and II pneumocytes in foci of diffuse alveolar damage and mucous glands of the nasal cavity. In SARS-CoV-infection, lung lesions were typically more severe, while they were milder in MERS-CoV infection, where virus was detected mainly in type II pneumocytes. These data show that SARS-CoV-2 can cause a COVID-19-like disease, and suggest that the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection is intermediate between that of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. One Sentence Summary SARS-CoV-2 infection in macaques results in COVID-19-like disease with prolonged virus excretion from nose and throat in absence of clinical signs.

negative: Mapping Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Infectious Diseases in Europe Background: The incidence, outbreak frequency, and distribution of many infectious diseases are generally expected to change as a consequence of climate change, yet there is limited regional information available to guide decision making. Objective: We surveyed government officials designated as Competent Bodies for Scientific Advice concerning infectious diseases to examine the degree to which they are concerned about potential effects of climate change on infectious diseases, as well as their perceptions of institutional capacities in their respective countries. Methods: In 2007 and 2009/2010, national infectious disease experts from 30 European Economic Area countries were surveyed about recent and projected infectious disease patterns in relation to climate change in their countries and the national capacity to cope with them. Results: A large majority of respondents agreed that climate change would affect vector-borne (86% of country representatives), food-borne (70%), water-borne (68%), and rodent-borne (68%) diseases in their countries. In addition, most indicated that institutional improvements are needed for ongoing surveillance programs (83%), collaboration with the veterinary sector (69%), management of animal disease outbreaks (66%), national monitoring and control of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (64%), health services during an infectious disease outbreak (61%), and diagnostic support during an epidemic (54%). Conclusions: Expert responses were generally consistent with the peer-reviewed literature regarding the relationship between climate change and vector- and water-borne diseases, but were less so for food-borne diseases. Shortcomings in institutional capacity to manage climate change vulnerability, identified in this assessment, should be addressed in impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments.

negative: Targeting Transmission Pathways for Emerging Zoonotic Disease Surveillance and Control. We used literature searches and a database of all reported emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) to analyze the most important transmission pathways (e.g., vector-borne, aerosol droplet transmitted) for emerging zoonoses. Our results suggest that at the broad scale, the likelihood of transmission occurring through any one pathway is approximately equal. However, the major transmission pathways for zoonoses differ widely according to the specific underlying drivers of EID events (e.g., land-use change, agricultural intensification). These results can be used to develop better targeting of surveillance for, and more effective control of newly emerged zoonoses in regions under different underlying pressures that drive disease emergence.

negative: Murine coronavirus nonstructural protein ns2 is not essential for virus replication in transformed cells. Two isolates of the murine hepatitis virus (MHV) strain JHM, which differed in their ability to express the nonstructural gene product ns2, were characterized. The MHV Wb3 isolate encodes a 30,000-molecular-weight ns2 protein that can be readily detected in infected cells by using a specific monoclonal antibody, MAb 2A. The MHV Wb1 isolate is a deletion mutant that lacks a functional ns2 gene and the transcriptional signals required for the synthesis of an ns2 mRNA. However, there are no obviously significant differences in the growth of the MHV Wb1 and MHV Wb3 isolates in continuous cell lines or in the synthesis of viral mRNAs or proteins in infected cells. These results demonstrate that the ns2 gene product is not essential for MHV replication in transformed murine cells and suggests that the function of the ns2 gene may only be manifest in vivo.

negative: Pedestrian-level wind conditions in the space underneath lift-up buildings Abstract Lift-up buildings are advantageous in improving the wind circulation in a congested and compact city. However, the wind conditions in the void underneath a lift-up building, also known as the lift-up area, are vital for wind comfort of occupants of lift-up buildings. This study tested 28 lift-up buildings in a boundary layer wind tunnel to assess the influence of key design parameters; height and width of the main structure, and height, width, depth, and the shape of the central core on the wind conditions in the lift-up area. The results of the analyses show a significant influence of building height on the magnitude of wind speeds in the lift-up area while the width of the central core controls the area with low wind speeds. Tall buildings with short lift-up cores have small areas with acceptable pedestrian wind comfort, which can be increased by adopting corner modifications for the central core. The area of acceptable pedestrian wind comfort increases in oblique wind directions as the areas of high (>3.5 m s−1) and low (<1.5 m s−1) wind speeds are decreased. Finally, a non-linear second-order multivariable regression model is developed to predict pedestrian wind comfort in the lift-up area.

negative: CovidNet: To Bring Data Transparency in the Era of COVID-19 Timely, creditable, and fine-granular case information is vital for local communities and individual citizens to make rational and data-driven responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents CovidNet, a COVID-19 tracking project associated with a large scale epidemic dataset, which was initiated by 1Point3Acres. To the best of our knowledge, the project is the only platform providing real-time global case information of more than 4,124 sub-divisions from over 27 countries worldwide with multi-language supports. The platform also offers interactive visualization tools to analyze the full historical case curves in each region. Initially launched as a voluntary project to bridge the data transparency gap in North America in January 2020, this project by far has become one of the major independent sources worldwide and has been consumed by many other tracking platforms. The accuracy and freshness of the dataset is a result of the painstaking efforts from our voluntary teamwork, crowd-sourcing channels, and automated data pipelines. As of May 18, 2020, the project website has been visited more than 200 million times and the CovidNet dataset has empowered over 522 institutions and organizations worldwide in policy-making and academic researches. All datasets are openly accessible for non-commercial purposes at https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com via a formal request through our APIs.

negative: Modeling respiratory illnesses with change point: A lesson from the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong Abstract It is generally agreed that respiratory disease is closely related to ambient air quality and weather conditions. Besides, hygiene related factors such as the public health measures by the government and possible personal awareness in the community can also affect the spread of infectious respiratory diseases. However, there is no quantitative support for this conclusion, because of lack of quality data. The severe acute respiratory syndrome (or SARS) outbreak in 2003 triggered strict public health measures and personal awareness in the prevention of infectious respiratory diseases, providing us an opportunity to quantify the impact of hygiene related factors in the spread of the disease. In this paper, we model the number of the respiratory illnesses by a semiparametric model which models the environmental and weather impacts using a multiple index model and the impact of other public health measures and possible personal awareness using a growth curve with jump. Using data from Hong Kong, we found that public health measures contributed to about 39% of reduction in the number of respiratory illnesses during the SARS period. However, the impact of hygienically related factors eventually fades as time passes. The results provide indirect quantitative support to the usefulness of governmental campaigns to arouse the awareness of the public in staying away from transmission of respiratory diseases during the full outbreak of the disease. The results also show the fast fading of alertness of Hong Kong people towards the epidemic. Furthermore, our model also offers a way to model the impacts of environmental factors on respiratory diseases, when the data contains the effect of human intervention, by introducing the change point and growth curve to remove such an effect.