query: what are the benefits and risks of re-opening schools in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic?

positive: Infection prevention guidelines and considerations for paediatric risk groups when reopening primary schools during COVID-19 pandemic, Norway, April 2020 In response to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, most countries implemented school closures. In Norway, schools closed on 13 March 2020. The evidence of effect on disease transmission was limited, while negative consequences were evident. Before reopening, risk-assessment for paediatric risk groups was performed, concluding that most children can attend school with few conditions requiring preventative homeschooling. We here present infection prevention and control guidelines for primary schools and recommendations for paediatric risk groups.

positive: Education and the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic is a huge challenge to education systems. This Viewpoint offers guidance to teachers, institutional heads, and officials on addressing the crisis. What preparations should institutions make in the short time available and how do they address students' needs by level and field of study? Reassuring students and parents is a vital element of institutional response. In ramping up capacity to teach remotely, schools and colleges should take advantage of asynchronous learning, which works best in digital formats. As well as the normal classroom subjects, teaching should include varied assignments and work that puts COVID-19 in a global and historical context. When constructing curricula, designing student assessment first helps teachers to focus. Finally, this Viewpoint suggests flexible ways to repair the damage to students' learning trajectories once the pandemic is over and gives a list of resources.

positive: Postdigital Living in the Age of Covid-19: Unsettling What We See as Possible

positive: SDG 4 and the COVID-19 emergency: Textbooks, tutoring, and teachers COVID-19 once again revealed the inherent weaknesses in relying on classroom-based schooling and ICT to sustain learning, a danger already familiar from earlier man-made and natural disasters. A lack of textbooks and lack of guidance for caregivers to support home-based learning limited the effectiveness of efforts to provide continuity of learning. These same elements are the key to preparing better for the next crisis and keeping SDG 4 on track.

positive: A safe flight for children through COVID-19 disaster: keeping our mind open!

positive: Considering inequalities in the school closure response to COVID-19

positive: A first study on the impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe, with about 571,700 confirmed cases and about 26,500 deaths as of March 28th, 2020. We present here the preliminary results of a mathematical study directed at informing on the possible application or lifting of control measures in Germany. The developed mathematical models allow to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. The overall goal is to suggest strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually fatalities.

positive: Lower State COVID-19 Deaths and Cases with Earlier School Closure in the U.S. This study quantifies the relationship between school closure timing and COVID-19 deaths and cases in the general population in all U.S. states. COVID-19 has higher symptomatic infection rates among the elderly, suggesting school closures could be unrelated to transmission. However, predicting daily cumulative COVID-19 deaths by state, earlier school closure is related to fewer deaths per capita and slower growth in deaths per capita. Results are similar for COVID-19 cases per capita.

positive: Re-Opening Schools Safely: The Case for Collaboration, Constructive Disruption of Pre-COVID Expectations, and Creative Solutions

positive: Individual-based simulation model for COVID-19 transmission in Daegu,Korea Objectives: The aims of this study were to obtain insights into the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the city of Daegu, which accounted for 6,482 of the 9,241 confirmed cases in South Korea as of March 26, 2020, to predict the future spread, and to analyze the impact of school opening. Methods: Using an individual-based model, we simulated the spread of COVID-19 in Daegu. An individual can be infected through close contact with infected people in a household, at work/school, and at religious and social gatherings. We created a synthetic population from census sample data. Then, 9,000 people were randomly selected from the entire population of Daegu and set as members of the hotspot of the Shincheonji church. We did not take into account population movements to and from other regions in South Korea. Results: Using the individual-based model, the cumulative confirmed cases in Daegu through March 26, 2020, were reproduced, and it was confirmed that the hotspot had a different probability of infection than non-hotspot areas. For 3 scenarios (I: school closing, II: school opening after April 6, III: school opening after April 6 and the mean period from symptom onset to hospitalization increasing to 4.3 days), we predicted future changes in the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Daegu. Conclusion: Compared to scenario I, it was found that in scenario III, the cumulative number of patients would increase by 107 and the date of occurrence of the last patient would be delayed by 92 days.

positive: COVID-19 projections for reopening Connecticut Closure of schools and the statewide "Stay Safe, Stay Home" order have effectively reduced COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut, with model projections estimating incidence at about 1,300 new infections per day. If close interpersonal contact increases quickly in Connecticut following reopening on May 20, the state is at risk of a substantial increase of COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths by late Summer 2020. Real-time metrics including case counts, hospitalizations, and deaths may fail to provide enough advance warning to avoid resurgence. Substantial uncertainty remains in our knowledge of cumulative COVID-19 incidence, the proportion of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, infectiousness of children, the effects of testing and contact tracing on isolation of infected individuals, and how contact patterns may change following reopening.

positive: COVID-19 Pandemic Response Simulation: Impact of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on Ending Lockdowns As many federal and state governments are starting to ease restrictions on non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) used to flatten the curve, we developed an agent-based simulation to model the incidence of COVID-19 in King County, WA under several scenarios. While NPIs were effective in flattening the curve, any relaxation of social distancing strategies yielded a second wave. Even if daily confirmed cases dropped to one digit, daily incidence can peak again to 874 cases without import cases. Therefore, policy makers should be very cautious in reopening society.

positive: Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review. BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging disease that has been classified a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). To support WHO with their recommendations on quarantine, we conducted a rapid review on the effectiveness of quarantine during severe coronavirus outbreaks. OBJECTIVES We conducted a rapid review to assess the effects of quarantine (alone or in combination with other measures) of individuals who had contact with confirmed cases of COVID-19, who travelled from countries with a declared outbreak, or who live in regions with high transmission of the disease. SEARCH METHODS An information specialist searched PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, WHO Global Index Medicus, Embase, and CINAHL on 12 February 2020 and updated the search on 12 March 2020. WHO provided records from daily searches in Chinese databases up to 16 March 2020. SELECTION CRITERIA Cohort studies, case-control-studies, case series, time series, interrupted time series, and mathematical modelling studies that assessed the effect of any type of quarantine to control COVID-19. We also included studies on SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) as indirect evidence for the current coronavirus outbreak. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently screened 30% of records; a single review author screened the remaining 70%. Two review authors screened all potentially relevant full-text publications independently. One review author extracted data and assessed evidence quality with GRADE and a second review author checked the assessment. We rated the certainty of evidence for the four primary outcomes: incidence, onward transmission, mortality, and resource use. MAIN RESULTS We included 29 studies; 10 modelling studies on COVID-19, four observational studies and 15 modelling studies on SARS and MERS. Because of the diverse methods of measurement and analysis across the outcomes of interest, we could not conduct a meta-analysis and conducted a narrative synthesis. Due to the type of evidence found for this review, GRADE rates the certainty of the evidence as low to very low. Modeling studies consistently reported a benefit of the simulated quarantine measures, for example, quarantine of people exposed to confirmed or suspected cases averted 44% to 81% incident cases and 31% to 63% of deaths compared to no measures based on different scenarios (incident cases: 4 modelling studies on COVID-19, SARS; mortality: 2 modelling studies on COVID-19, SARS, low-certainty evidence). Very low-certainty evidence suggests that the earlier quarantine measures are implemented, the greater the cost savings (2 modelling studies on SARS). Very low-certainty evidence indicated that the effect of quarantine of travellers from a country with a declared outbreak on reducing incidence and deaths was small (2 modelling studies on SARS). When the models combined quarantine with other prevention and control measures, including school closures, travel restrictions and social distancing, the models demonstrated a larger effect on the reduction of new cases, transmissions and deaths than individual measures alone (incident cases: 4 modelling studies on COVID-19; onward transmission: 2 modelling studies on COVID-19; mortality: 2 modelling studies on COVID-19; low-certainty evidence). Studies on SARS and MERS were consistent with findings from the studies on COVID-19. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Current evidence for COVID-19 is limited to modelling studies that make parameter assumptions based on the current, fragmented knowledge. Findings consistently indicate that quarantine is important in reducing incidence and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Early implementation of quarantine and combining quarantine with other public health measures is important to ensure effectiveness. In order to maintain the best possible balance of measures, decision makers must constantly monitor the outbreak situation and the impact of the measures implemented. Testing in representative samples in different settings could help assess the true prevalence of infection, and would reduce uncertainty of modelling assumptions. This review was commissioned by WHO and supported by Danube-University-Krems.

positive: A framework for identifying and mitigating the equity harms of COVID-19 policy interventions Abstract: Introduction Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic. Governments have implemented combinations of ‘lockdown’ measures of various stringencies, including school and workplace closures, cancellations of public events, and restrictions on internal and external movements. These policy interventions are an attempt to shield high risk individuals and to prevent overwhelming countries’ healthcare systems, or, colloquially, ‘flatten the curve’. However, these policy interventions may come with physical and psychological health harms, group and social harms, and opportunity costs. These policies may particularly affect vulnerable populations and not only exacerbate pre-existing inequities, but also generate new ones. Methods We developed a conceptual framework to identify and categorise adverse effects of COVID-19 lockdown measures. We based our framework on Lorenc and Oliver’s framework for the adverse effects of public health interventions and the PROGRESS-Plus equity framework. To test its application we purposively sampled COVID-19 policy examples from around the world and evaluated them for the potential physical, psychological, and social harms, as well as opportunity costs, in each of the PROGRESS-Plus equity domains: Place of residence, Race/ethnicity, Occupation, Gender/sex, Religion, Education, Socioeconomic status, Social capital, Plus (age, and disability). Results We found examples of inequitably distributed adverse effects for each COVID-19 lockdown policy example, stratified by LMIC and HIC, in every PROGRESS-Plus equity domain. We identified known policy interventions intended to mitigate some of these adverse effects. The same harms (anxiety; depression; food insecurity; loneliness; stigma; violence) appear to be repeated across many groups, and are exacerbated by several COVID-19 policy interventions. Conclusion Our conceptual framework highlights the fact that COVID-19 policy interventions can generate or exacerbate interactive and multiplicative equity harms. Applying this framework can help in three ways: (1) identifying areas where a policy intervention may generate inequitable adverse effects; (2) mitigating policy and practice interventions by facilitating the systematic examination of relevant evidence; and (3) planning for lifting COVID-19 lockdowns and policy interventions around the world.

positive: Children and the COVID-19 pandemic As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many school districts have closed for the remainder of the academic year. These closures are unfortunate because, for many students, schools are their only source of trauma-informed care and supports. When schools reopen, they must develop a comprehensive plan to address the potential mental health needs of their students. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

positive: [Nursing Education Strategies During the COVID-19 Epidemic] The ongoing new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which arose at the end of 2019, poses a severe challenge to world public health systems. Frontline medical staffs bear a great burden to provide health care services. The Taiwan government has taken rapid and decisive actions to reduce the risk of community transmission and campus cluster infection. Nursing education includes both classroom teaching and clinical practicum components. In preparing for their practicum, students must learn not only fundamental nursing care knowledge but also basic knowledge on emerging infectious diseases. All schools nationwide have complied with the Ministry of Education order to postpone the opening of the fall semester in response to the rapid evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Campus epidemic prevention measures were implemented through student counseling networks, and flexible teaching strategies, including online teaching and distance teaching, were implemented to protect the learning rights of students. This paper explores the strategies implemented in response to emerging infectious diseases in nursing education based on the core values of professional nursing. Examining the precautions taken at campuses and teaching strategies adopted in response to the COVID 19 pandemic may provide valuable insights that may be applied to the future development of nursing education.

positive: A survey of the psychological status of primary school students who were quarantined at home during the coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic in Hangzhou China Objective: To investigate the presence of social anxiety and depression and the risk factors for them among primary school students who were quarantined at home during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Hangzhou China. Methods: A total of 1620 students who were quarantined at home for at least one month were recruited from two primary schools in Hangzhou. Students completed a questionnaire on a mobile App with help from their guardians; the measures included demographic and general information, the Social Anxiety Scale for Children (SASC), and the Depression Self-rating Scale for Children (DSRSC). Results: The mean SASC score of the participants was 3.90{+/-}3.73, which was higher than the mean norm score of Chinese urban children (3.48{+/-}3.47) (P < 0.01). The mean DSRSC score of the participants (5.67{+/-}4.97) was much lower than the mean norm score of Chinese urban children (9.84{+/-}4.73) (P < 0.05). A total of 279 (17.2%) students had social anxiety, with a mean score of 10.41{+/-}2.59, and 102 (6.3%) students had depression, with a mean score of 18.96{+/-}3.89. The following variables were found to be significant risk factors for social anxiety during home quarantine: deterioration of the parent-child relationship, increased conflicts with parents, irregular work and rest, and worrying more about being infected. Deterioration of the parent-child relationship, less physical activity, irregular work and rest, and negative mood during home quarantine were significant risk factors for depression. Conclusion: Primary school students who were quarantined at home during the COVID-19 epidemic were more likely to have social anxiety but less likely to have depressive symptoms. Poor parent-child relationships, irregularity of work and rest, and epidemic-related problems were the main reasons for psychological problems. Families, schools, and social organizations need to pay more attention to the psychological status of primary school students quarantined at home.

positive: International students' loneliness, depression and stress levels in COVID-19 crisis. The role of social media and the host university The move to university life is characterized by strong emotions, some of them negative, such as loneliness, anxiety, and depression. These negative emotions are strengthened due to the obligatory lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Previous research indicates association among the use of social media, university satisfaction, and the aforementioned emotions. We report findings from 248 international undergraduates in The Netherlands, all students at the International School of Business. Our results indicate strong correlations between anxiety, loneliness, and COVID-19-related stress with university satisfaction together with social capital. Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemic; lockdown; loneliness; depression; anxiety; international students

positive: A COVID-19 Reopening Readiness Index: The Key to Opening up the Economy With respect to reopening the economy as a result of the COVID-19 restrictions, governmental response and messaging have been inconsistent, and policies have varied by state as this is a uniquely polarizing topic. Considering the urgent need to return to normalcy, a method was devised to determine the degree of progress any state has made in containing the spread of COVID-19. Using various measures for each state including mortality, hospitalizations, testing capacity, number of infections and infection rate has allowed for the creation of a composite COVID -19 Reopening Readiness Index. This index can serve as a comprehensive reliable and simple-to-use metric to assess the level of containment in any state and to determine the level of risk in further opening. As states struggle to contain the outbreak and at the same time face great pressure in resuming economic activity, an index that provides a data-driven and objective insight is urgently needed.

positive: The benefits of peer transparency in safe workplace operation post pandemic lockdown The benefits, both in terms of productivity and public health, are investigated for different levels of engagement with the test, trace and isolate procedures in the context of a pandemic in which there is little or no herd immunity. Simple mathematical modelling is used in the context of a single, relatively closed workplace such as a factory or back-office where, in normal operation, each worker has lengthy interactions with a fixed set of colleagues. A discrete-time SEIR model on a fixed interaction graph is simulated with parameters that are motivated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic in the UK during a post-peak phase, including a small risk of viral infection from outside the working environment. Two kinds of worker are assumed, transparents who regularly test, share their results with colleagues and isolate as soon as a contact tests positive for the disease, and opaques who do none of these. Moreover, the simulations are constructed as a "playable model" in which the transparency level, disease parameters and mean interaction degree can be varied by the user. The model is analysed in the continuum limit. All simulations point to the double benefit of transparency in maximising productivity and minimising overall infection rates. Based on these findings, public policy implications are discussed on how to incentivise this mutually beneficial behaviour in different kinds of workplace, and simple recommendations are made.

positive: Should Schools Reopen Early or Late? – Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Children

positive: Stepping out of lockdown should start with school re-openings while maintaining distancing measures. Insights from mixing matrices and mathematical models. Australia is one of a few countries which has managed to control COVID-19 epidemic before a major epidemic took place. Currently with just under 7000 cases and 100 deaths, Australia is seeing less than 20 new cases per day. This is a positive outcome, but makes estimation of current effective reproduction numbers difficult to estimate. Australia, like much of the world is poised to step out of lockdown and looking at which measures to relax first. We use age-based contact matrices, calibrated to Chinese data on reproduction numbers and difference in infectiousness and susceptibility of children to generate next generation matrices (NGMs) for Australia. These matrices have a spectral radius of 2.49, which is hence our estimated basic reproduction number for Australia. The effective reproduction number (Reff) for Australia during the April/May lockdown period is estimated by other means to be around 0.8. We simulate the impact of lockdown on the NGM by first applying observations through Google Mobility Report for Australia at 3 locations: home (increased contacts by 18%), work (reduced contacts by 34%) and other (reduced contacts by 40%), and we reduce schools to 3% reflecting attendance rates during lockdown. Applying macro-distancing to the NGM leads to a spectral radius of 1.76. We estimate that the further reduction of the reproduction number to current levels of Reff = 0.8 is achieved by a micro-distancing factor of 0.26. That is, in a given location, people are 26% as likely as usual to have an effective contact with another person. We apply both macro and micro-distancing to the NGMs to examine the impact of different exit strategies. We find that reopening schools is estimated to reduce Reff from 0.8 to 0.78. This is because increase in school contact is offset by decrease in home contact. The NGMs all estimate that adults aged 30-50 are responsible for the majority of transmission. We also find that micro-distancing is critically important to maintain Reff <1. There is considerable uncertainty in these estimates and a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is presented.

positive: Children's mortality from COVID-19 compared with all-deaths and other relevant causes of death: epidemiological information for decision-making by parents, teachers, clinicians and policymakers

positive: How Much May COVID‐19 School Closures Increase Childhood Obesity? In a recent paper entitled, “COVID‐19 Related School Closings and Risk of Weight Gain Among Children” Rundle et al. (2020) proposed the COVID‐19 pandemic may increase obesity among American children because the pandemic, “will likely double out‐of‐school time this year for many children in the United States and will exacerbate the risk factors for weight gain associated with summer recess” (pg. 1). I add support to Rundle et al.’s argument by demonstrating that doubling of out‐of‐school time alone may lead to a sizable increase in childhood obesity.

positive: Digital transformation of everyday life – How COVID-19 pandemic transformed the basic education of the young generation and why information management research should care? Children of today have been surrounded by digital technology since their birth. However, children of today are not equally equipped for their technology rich future: various kinds of digital divides still prevail in the society and affect the young generation and their digital futures. Schools and education of children should undergo an extensive digital transformation to be able to meet the needs of the young generation and their digitalized future. The COVID-19 pandemic has suddenly and abruptly forced schools and education indeed to engage in such a transformation. In this study we examine the digital transformation initiated by the COVID-19 pandemic in the basic education of the young generation, the variety of digital divides emerging and reinforced, and the possible barriers reported along the way. We argue that information management research should better acknowledge children, their digitalized everyday life and their basic education as significant areas of concern. We should understand them as well as allow them to shape the education we offer in the context of higher education, but we should also aim at influencing the basic education of the young generation – for the purpose of equipping them with important skills and competencies for their digital futures but also for the purpose of arousing their interest in this important field, maybe even as a career option.

positive: A pandemic-resilient open-inquiry physical science lab course which leverages the Maker movement Without any major changes, a pilot version of a physical science lab course was able to continue when the COVID-19 crisis necessitated the abrupt suspension of on-campus education. The 'Maker Lab' course, in which students conceive and set up their own experiments using affordable microcontrollers, required students to follow the entire arc of the empirical research cycle twice. The decision for and facilitation of such open-inquiry projects was based on and warranted by the literature on teaching the process of experimental research and the scientific method. The flipped classroom approach was used, where contact time is devoted to discussions and the students' actual experiments were carried out independently at home or elsewhere without the supervision of an instructor. Despite the COVID-19 measures, all students were able to produce interesting and successful research projects. While there were of course difficulties encountered in the abrupt transition to online teaching, we found several counterbalancing advantages that bear consideration for inclusion even when all teaching activities can return to campus. We believe that three components in the design of the course were vital to the resilience of the course: the choice for fully open-inquiry projects, the decision to use Arduinos as measurement tools, and the flipped aspect of the instruction methods. We also include considerations for adapting these pandemic-resilient methods in other courses and programs.

positive: COVID-19 and the re-opening of schools: a policy maker’s dilemma The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. In order to counter this epidemic, several countries put in place different restrictive measures, such as the school’s closure and a total lockdown. However, as the knowledge on the disease progresses, clinical evidence showed that children mainly have asymptomatic or mild disease and it has been suggested that they are also less likely to spread the virus. Moreover, the lockdown and the school closure could have negative consequences on children, affecting their social life, their education and their mental health. As many countries have already entered or are planning a phase of gradual lifting of the containment measures of social distancing, it seems plausible that the re-opening of nursery schools and primary schools could be considered a policy to be implemented at an early stage of recovery efforts, putting in place measures to do it safely, such as the maintenance of social distance, the reorganisation of classes into smaller groups, the provision of adequate sanitization of spaces, furniture and toys, the prompt identification of cases in the school environment and their tracing. Therefore, policy makers have the task of balancing pros and cons of the school re-opening strategy, taking into account psychological, educational and social consequences for children and their families. Another issue to be considered is represented by socio-economic disparities and inequalities which could be amplified by school’s closure.

positive: The prospects of sitting 'end of year' open book exams in the light of COVID-19: A medical student's perspective Medical schools in the UK have been forced to dramatically restructure teaching and assessment amidst the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. As part of this, some have opted to assess progression through open book examinations (OBE). I aim to share my thoughts as an unsettled 4th year medical student about to embark on my first set of clinical exams conducted in this format. The difficulties associated with preparing for examinations under such unique and challenging circumstances cannot be underestimated. Working from home, during social distancing, surrounds students with the extra family stresses that we are all facing during this pandemic. This combined with a new, unfamiliar examination format will inevitably lead to students feeling daunted. While some would argue that an OBE may reward good problem solvers, students still require a strong foundation of knowledge. The luxury of reference will not be afforded in all clinical settings thus leading to concerns regarding students skimming over essential learning points. Furthermore, we cannot ignore the increased opportunity for academic misconduct resulting from an open book assessment format. Why are medical schools placing undue stress on students who could instead focus their attention on living compassionately for others during this difficult time?

positive: They stumble that run fast: the economic and COVID-19 transmission impacts of reopening industries in the US COVID-19 has laid bare the United States economically and epidemiologically. Decisions must be made as how and when to reopen industries. Here we quantify economic and health risk tradeoffs of reopening by industry for each state in the US. To estimate total economic impact, we summed income loss due to unemployment and profit loss. We assess transmission risk by: (1) workplace size, (2) human interactions, (3) inability to work from home, and (4) industry size. We found that the industry with the highest estimated economic impact from COVID-19 was manufacturing in 40 states; the industry with the largest transmission risk index was accommodation and food services in 41 states, and the industry with the highest economic impact per unit of transmission risk, interpreted as the value of reopening, was manufacturing in 37 states. Researchers and decision makers must work together to consider both health and economics when making tough decisions.

positive: Modeling the early phase of the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using a stochastic compartmental model and studying its implied future trajectories Following the onset of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic throughout the world, a large fraction of the global population is or has been under strict measures of physical distancing and quarantine, with many countries being in partial or full lockdown. These measures are imposed in order to reduce the spread of the disease and to lift the pressure on healthcare systems. Estimating the impact of such interventions as well as monitoring the gradual relaxing of these stringent measures is quintessential to understand how resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic can be controlled for in the future. In this paper we use a stochastic age-structured discrete time compartmental model to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in Belgium. Our model explicitly accounts for age-structure by integrating data on social contacts to (i) assess the impact of the lockdown as implemented on March 13, 2020 on the number of new hospitalizations in Belgium; (ii) conduct a scenario analysis estimating the impact of possible exit strategies on potential future COVID-19 waves. More specifically, the aforementioned model is fitted to hospital admission data, data on the daily number of COVID-19 deaths and serial serological survey data informing the (sero)prevalence of the disease in the population while relying on a Bayesian MCMC approach. Our age-structured stochastic model describes the observed outbreak data well, both in terms of hospitalizations as well as COVID-19 related deaths in the Belgian population. Despite an extensive exploration of various projections for the future course of the epidemic, based on the impact of adherence to measures of physical distancing and a potential increase in contacts as a result of the relaxation of the stringent lockdown measures, a lot of uncertainty remains about the evolution of the epidemic in the next months.

positive: Somatic symptoms and concern regarding COVID-19 among Chinese college and primary school students: A cross-sectional survey The rapid, ongoing and worldwide coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic represents a global public health emergency. Our objective was to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on somatic symptoms among Chinese college and primary school students, to provide reference data pertaining to the mental health of this population in the context of a public health emergency. In February and March 2020, we explored the somatic symptoms and concerns regarding COVID-19 of 399 college and primary school students in Sichuan Province using the Somatic Self-rating Scale (SSS) and a novel questionnaire, respectively. Logistic regression analysis and non-parametric tests were used to analyze the data. The incidence of somatic symptoms among college students was 34.85 (mild, 26.26%; moderate, 8.59%). The incidence of somatic symptoms in primary school students was 2.39% (all mild). Among the entire cohort, concern regarding COVID-19 was positively correlated with the occurrence of somatic symptoms. Somatic symptoms were more likely among college students expressing greater concern regarding the threat to life and health posed by COVID-19, and the efficacy of prevention and control measures. Among primary school students, only the concern for life and health was associated with a higher likelihood of somatic symptoms. Our data indicate that governments and other relevant agencies should implement different measures to prevent and control mental health disorders diseases in primary school and college students.

positive: Acute stress, behavioural symptoms and mood states among school-age children with attention-deficit/hyperactive disorder during the COVID-19 outbreak

positive: Feasibility of Social Distancing Practices in US Schools to Reduce Influenza Transmission During a Pandemic Schools are socially dense environments, and school-based outbreaks often predate and fuel community-wide transmission of seasonal and pandemic influenza. While preemptive school closures can effectively reduce influenza transmission, they are disruptive and currently recommended only for pandemics. We assessed the feasibility of implementing other social distancing practices in K-12 schools as a first step in seeking an alternative to preemptive school closures. METHODS: We conducted 36 focus groups with education and public health officials across the United States. We identified and characterized themes and compared feasibility of practices by primary versus secondary school and region of the United States. RESULTS: Participants discussed 29 school practices (25 within-school practices implemented as part of the school day and 4 reduced-schedule practices that impact school hours). Participants reported that elementary schools commonly implement several within-school practices as part of routine operations such as homeroom stay, restriction of hall movement, and staggering of recess times. Because of routine implementation and limited use of individualized schedules within elementary schools, within-school practices were generally felt to be more feasible for elementary schools than secondary schools. Of reduced-schedule practices, shortening the school week and the school day was considered the most feasible; however, reduced-schedule practices were generally perceived to be less feasible than within-school practices for all grade levels. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that schools have many options to increase social distance other than closing. Future research should evaluate which of these seemingly feasible practices are effective in reducing influenza transmission in schools and surrounding communities.

positive: Hand Hygiene, Mask-Wearing Behaviors and Its Associated Factors during the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Cross-Sectional Study among Primary School Students in Wuhan, China Although the emphasis on behaviors of hand-washing and mask-wearing was repeated during the pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), not everyone paid enough attention to this. A descriptive statistic was used to make sense of the status of hand hygiene and mask-wearing among primary school students in Wuhan, China. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors affecting the behaviors of hand-washing and mask-wearing. p < 0.05 (two-sides) was considered as significant at statistics. 42.05% of the primary school students showed a good behavior of hand-washing, while 51.60% had a good behavior of mask-wearing. Gender, grade, out-going history, father's occupation, mother's educational background, and the time filling out the survey were significantly associated with hand hygiene, whereas grade, mother's educational background, and residence were associated with mask-wearing. The behaviors of hand-washing and mask-wearing among primary school students were influenced by gender, grade, shady is back tell a friendand other factors, therefore, parents should make efforts of behavior guidance whereas governments should enlarge medium publicity.

positive: School closures during the 2009 influenza pandemic: national and local experiences BACKGROUND: School closure is a non-pharmaceutical intervention that was considered in many national pandemic plans developed prior to the start of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, and received considerable attention during the event. Here, we retrospectively review and compare national and local experiences with school closures in several countries during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. Our intention is not to make a systematic review of country experiences; rather, it is to present the diversity of school closure experiences and provide examples from national and local perspectives. METHODS: Data were gathered during and following a meeting, organized by the European Centres for Disease Control, on school closures held in October 2010 in Stockholm, Sweden. A standard data collection form was developed and sent to all participants. The twelve participating countries and administrative regions (Bulgaria, China, France, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), Italy, Japan, New Zealand, Serbia, South Africa, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States) provided data. RESULTS: Our review highlights the very diverse national and local experiences on school closures during the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic. The processes including who was in charge of making recommendations and who was in charge of making the decision to close, the school-based control strategies, the extent of school closures, the public health tradition of responses and expectations on school closure varied greatly between countries. Our review also discusses the many challenges associated with the implementation of this intervention and makes recommendations for further practical work in this area. CONCLUSIONS: The single most important factor to explain differences observed between countries may have been the different public health practises and public expectations concerning school closures and influenza in the selected countries.

positive: The Risk of Lifting COVID-19 Confinement in Mexico The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has paralysed our societies, leading to self isolation and quarantine for several days. As the 10th most populated country in the world, Mexico is on a major threat by COVID-19 due to the limitations of intensive care capacities, and a total of about 1.5 hospital beds for every 1000 citizens. In this paper, we projected different scenarios to evaluate sharp or gradual quarantine lifting strategies, however, even in the hypothetical scenario that Mexico would continue with full confinement, hospitals would be reaching the maximum capacity of hospital bed occupancy. Mexican government is planning to relax the strict social distancing regulations on 1 June 2020, however, epidemic rebound risks are latent. Our results suggest that lifting social confinement needs to be gradually sparse while maintaining a decentralized region strategy among the Mexican states. To substantially lower the number of infections, predictions highlight that the elderly should remain in social confinement (approximately 11.3% of the population); the confined working class (roughly 27% of the population) must gradually return in at least four parts in consecutive months; and to the last the return of students to schools (about 21.7%). As the epidemic progresses, de-confinement strategies need to be continuously re-adjusting with the new pandemic data. Assuming the most optimistic scenario by our predictions, the smallest number of new COVID-19 cases, Mexico would require at least a 3 fold increase in hospital capacities dedicated for COVID-19. Furthermore, to observe the real dimension of the epidemic, Mexico would need to increase to at least 18 samples per 1000 people, currently is only 0.6 per 1000. All mathematical models, including ours, are only a possibility of many of the future, however, the different scenarios that were developed here highlight that a gradual decentralized region de-confinement with a significant increase in healthcare capacities is paramount to avoid a high death toll in Mexico.

positive: An Early Warning Approach to Monitor COVID-19 Activity with Multiple Digital Traces in Near Real-Time Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial in curbing COVID-19 in the United States (US). Consequently, relaxing NPIs through a phased re-opening of the US amid still-high levels of COVID-19 susceptibility could lead to new epidemic waves. This calls for a COVID-19 early warning system. Here we evaluate multiple digital data streams as early warning indicators of increasing or decreasing state-level US COVID-19 activity between January and June 2020. We estimate the timing of sharp changes in each data stream using a simple Bayesian model that calculates in near real-time the probability of exponential growth or decay. Analysis of COVID-19-related activity on social network microblogs, Internet searches, point-of-care medical software, and a metapopulation mechanistic model, as well as fever anomalies captured by smart thermometer networks, shows exponential growth roughly 2-3 weeks prior to comparable growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases and 3-4 weeks prior to comparable growth in COVID-19 deaths across the US over the last 6 months. We further observe exponential decay in confirmed cases and deaths 5-6 weeks after implementation of NPIs, as measured by anonymized and aggregated human mobility data from mobile phones. Finally, we propose a combined indicator for exponential growth in multiple data streams that may aid in developing an early warning system for future COVID-19 outbreaks. These efforts represent an initial exploratory framework, and both continued study of the predictive power of digital indicators as well as further development of the statistical approach are needed.

positive: Mental health burden for Chinese middle school students affected by the COVID-19 pandemic

positive: Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and incorporate in it all available to us knowledge about parameters characterising the behaviour of the virus and the illness induced by it. The models we use are flexible, comprehensive, fast to run and allow us to incorporate the following: -time-dependent strategies of handling the epidemic; -spatial heterogeneity of the population and heterogeneity of development of epidemic in different areas; -special characteristics of particular groups of people, especially people with specific medical pre-histories and elderly. Standard epidemiological models such as SIR and many of its modifications are not flexible enough and hence are not precise enough in the studies that requires the use of the features above. Decision-makers get serious benefits from using better and more flexible models as they can avoid of nuanced lock-downs, better plan the exit strategy based on local population data, different stages of the epidemic in different areas, making specific recommendations to specific groups of people; all this resulting in a lesser impact on economy, improved forecasts of regional demand upon NHS allowing for intelligent resource allocation.

positive: Disruption of healthcare: Will the COVID pandemic worsen non-COVID outcomes and disease outbreaks?

positive: Prolonged viral shedding in feces of pediatric patients with coronavirus disease 2019 Abstract Objective To determine the dynamic changes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in respiratory and fecal specimens in children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods From January 17, 2020 to February 23, 2020, three paediatric cases of COVID-19 were reported in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment data were collected. Patients were followed up to March 10, 2020, and dynamic profiles of nucleic acid testing results in throat swabs and fecal specimens were closely monitored. Results Clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory tract occurred within two weeks after abatement of fever, whereas viral RNA remained detectable in stools of pediatric patients for longer than 4 weeks. Two children had fecal SARS-CoV-2 undetectable 20 days after throat swabs showing negative, while that of another child lagged behind for 8 days. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 may exist in children's gastrointestinal tract for a longer time than respiratory system. Persistent shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children raises the possibility that the virus might be transmitted through contaminated fomites. Massive efforts should be made at all levels to prevent spreading of the infection among children after reopening of kindergartens and schools.

positive: US school/academic institution disaster and pandemic preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses BACKGROUND: School pandemic preparedness is essential, but has not been evaluated. METHODS: An online survey was sent to school nurses (from state school nurse associations and/or state departments of education) between May and July 2011. Overall school pandemic preparedness scores were calculated by assigning 1 point for each item in the school's pandemic plan; the maximum score was 11. Linear regression was used to describe factors associated with higher school pandemic preparedness scores. Nurse influenza vaccine uptake was assessed as well. RESULTS: A total of 1,997 nurses from 26 states completed the survey. Almost three-quarters (73.7%; n = 1,472) reported receiving the seasonal influenza vaccine during the 2010-11 season. Very few (2.2%; n = 43) reported that their school/district had a mandatory influenza vaccination policy. Pandemic preparedness scores ranged from 0 to 10 points, with an average score of 4.3. Determinants of school pandemic preparedness were as follows: planning to be a point of dispensing during a future pandemic (P < .001), having experienced multiple student or employee hospitalizations and/or deaths related to H1N1 during the pandemic (P = .01 or <.05, respectively), having a lead nurse complete the survey (P < .001), and having the school nurse study participant be a member of the school disaster planning committee (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: US schools must continue to address gaps in pandemic planning.

positive: Impact Of Sars-Cov-2 And Its Reverberation In Global Higher Education And Mental Health BACKGROUND: According to UNESCO's monitoring, more than 160 countries implemented nationwide closures, which impacted over 87% of the world's student population. Several other countries implemented localized school closures; should these closures become nationwide, millions of additional learners will experience education disruption. Universities from around the world have been uncertain about how long the coronavirus crisis will last and how it might affect the mental health of students and faculty. The psychological impact has been a critical disruptor, creating anxiety and uncertainty. METHOD: The data were cross-checked with information from the main international newspapers. RESULTS: By discussing online and distance education, the coronavirus opens an important and urgent issue that affects mental health - these are virtually unexplored topics, and their results have not been validated yet. Online education is not limited to distance education, as it regards a grouping of learning/teaching procedures completed in cyberspace. Blended learning was, thus, introduced as a tool in personalized learning to adjust to new realities. These are unprecedented circumstances, and we understand they create stress, favoring anguish and a fierce search for new knowledge acquisition. CONCLUSIONS: Current research highlights that anxiety and depression, exacerbated by uncertainties and intensification of the information flow, will grow extensively. Negative physiological consequences of stress will manifest. For instance, loneliness, which will increase under these circumstances, seems to have a negative impact on education and, therefore, on psychological pain and suffering.

positive: Knowledge, attitude and practice of secondary school students toward COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: a cross selectional study The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly transmittable and pathogenic viral infection caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerges in December 2019 in Wuhan, China and spreads around the world at the beginning of 2020. The World Health Organization declares the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on the 30th of January, and a pandemic on the 11th of March. On the 4th of March, the Italian government orders the full closure of all schools and universities nationwide. The aim of this study is to investigate the knowledge, practice and attitudes (KAP) of secondary school at the time of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy. In this cross-sectional, web-based survey, conducted among the high school student population with age ranging from 14 to 19 years old, a questionnaire with 19 items regarding the KAP toward COVID-19 is asked. Study participants are recruited from several secondary schools of different areas. Frequencies and histograms are computed for descriptive purposes. Statistical analysis is computed with Chi square test, utilized to depict relevant difference between geender. Among a total of 2380 students who answers the questionnaire, 40.7% are male and 59.3% are female. Level of knowledge about generical characteristics of COVID-19 is quite similar among gender. Students present a good level of knowledge about the clinical presentation of the disease, the basic hygiene principles, the modes of transmission and the method of protection against virus transmission. The knowledge about number of this pandemia and easy scientific correlation with COVID-19 is quite confused. The most frequently reported source of knowledge about COVID-19 is television, whereas the less is the school. Our findings suggest that student population shows appropriate practice, and positive attitude towards COVID-19 at the time of its outbreak. More emphasis should be placed on education of the student partecipants about biological meaning of this infection and relative preventive or future measures.

positive: Asymptomatic transmission and the infection fatality risk for COVID-19: Implications for school reopening Asymptomatic infection occurs for numerous respiratory viral diseases, including influenza and COVID-19. We seek to clarify confusion in three areas: age-specific risks of transmission and/or disease; various definitions for the COVID-19 "mortality rate", each useful for specific purposes; and implications for student return strategies from pre-school through university settings.

positive: Appréhender le COVID-19 au fil de l'eau en tant que psychiatre d'enfant et d'adolescent./ [Appreciating COVID-19 as a child and adolescent psychiatrist on the move] COVID-19 is a multi-organ disease due to an infection with the SARS-CoV2 virus. It has become a pandemic in early 2020. The disease appears less devastating in children and adolescents. However, stress, quarantine and eventually mourning have major impacts on development. It is difficult to describe what this pandemic implies for a child psychiatrist, other than by giving a first-hand account. I propose to go through the main ethical questions that have arisen; to describe how my hospital team has reorganized itself to meet the new demands and questions, in particular by opening a unit dedicated to people with autism and challenging behaviors affected by COVID-19; and to address, in a context of national discussion, how the discipline has sought to understand the conditions of a certain well-being during quarantine. Finally, I will try to conclude with more speculative reflections on re-opening.

positive: Mental health effects of school closures during COVID-19

positive: Case series of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in a military recruit school: clinical, sanitary and logistical implications INTRODUCTION: A new coronavirus, called Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoronaVirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has emerged from China in late 2019 and has now caused a worldwide pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 has not been described so far in a military setting. We therefore report a case series of infected patients in a recruit school in Switzerland and the herein associated challenges. METHODS: Retrospective review of COVID-19 cases among Swiss Armed Forces recruits in the early weeks of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the canton of Ticino, the southernmost canton of Switzerland. Positive cases were defined with two positive PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 from nasopharyngeal swabs. Serological testing was performed with a commercially available kit according to manufacturers’ instructions. RESULTS: The first case was likely contaminated while skiing during weekend permission. He became symptomatic 4 days later, tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and was put into isolation. He showed complete symptom resolution after 48 hours. Quarantine was ordered for all recruits with close contact in the past 2 days, a total of 55 persons out of 140 in the company. Seven out of nine recruits in one particular quarantine room became mildly symptomatic. SARS-CoV-2 PCR was positive in one of them. Seven days after initial diagnosis, the index patient and the other one from the quarantine retested positive for SARS-CoV-2, although they had been completely asymptomatic for over 96 hours. Serological testing revealed positive for both patients. All others showed negative IgM and IgG. CONCLUSIONS: Young healthy recruits often showed a mild course of COVID-19 with rapid symptom decline but were persistent SARS-CoV-2 carriers. This illustrates how asymptomatic patients may be responsible for covert viral transmission. An early and prolonged establishment of isolation and quarantine for patients and close contacts is essential to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, especially in the confined space of a military environment.

positive: The Impact of Public Safety Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the United States Assessed By Causal Model-Based Projections of the Pandemic The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, and the disease it causes, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organization. Since then, the disease has spread all over the world, with the United States becoming the country with the highest number of cases. Governments around the world have undertaken varying degrees of public safety measures, including recommendations and ad campaigns for improved hygiene practices, enacting social distancing requirements and limiting large public gatherings, and stay-at-home orders and lockdowns. In the United States, while the response has varied greatly from state to state, we clearly see that the effect of these public safety measures is significant and, if these measures continue to remain in effect, or are expanded to a nationwide lockdown, the pandemic can be controlled and the disease likely overcome with mitigated consequences. In this paper, we model the spread of the novel coronavirus using a causal model. We find that, with continued lockdown measures, the United States can, according to this model, limit the total number of infections to ~1.35 million and the total number of deaths to ~72 thousand. A 60 day lockdown can save countless lives.

positive: Sleep problems among Chinese adolescents and young adults during the coronavirus-2019 pandemic OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and sociodemographic correlates of insomnia symptoms among Chinese adolescents and young adults affected by the outbreak of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: This cross-sectional study included Chinese adolescents and young adults 12–29 years of age during part of the COVID-19 epidemic period. An online survey was used to collect demographic data, and to assess recognition of COVID-19, insomnia, depression, and anxiety symptoms using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) questionnaires, respectively. The Social Support Rate Scale was used to assess social support. RESULTS: Among 11,835 adolescents and young adults included in the study, the prevalence of insomnia symptoms during part of the COVID-19 epidemic period was 23.2%. Binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that female sex and residing in the city were greater risk factors for insomnia symptoms. Depression or anxiety were risk factors for insomnia symptoms; however, social support, both subjective and objective, was protective factors against insomnia symptoms. Furthermore, anxiety and depression symptoms were mediators of social support and insomnia symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study revealed a high prevalence of sleep problems among adolescents and young adults during the COVID-19 epidemic, especially senior high school and college students, which were negatively associated with students’ projections of trends in COVID-19. The adverse impact of COVID-19 was a risk factor for insomnia symptoms; as such, the government must devote more attention to sleep disorders in this patient population while combating COVID-19.

positive: Toward sustainable learning during school suspension: Socioeconomic, occupational aspirations, and learning behavior of vietnamese students during COVID-19 The overspread of the novel coronavirus-SARS-CoV-2-over the globe has caused significant damage to manufacturing and service businesses, regardless of whether they are commercial, public, or not-for-profit sectors. While both the short-term and long-term impacts of most companies can be approximately measured or estimated, it is challenging to address the enduring effects of COVID-19 on teaching and learning activities. The target of this research is to investigate students' manners of studying at home during the school suspension time as a result of COVID-19. Through analyzing original survey data from 420 K6-12 students in Hanoi, Vietnam, this work demonstrates the different learning habits of students with different socioeconomic statuses and occupational aspirations during the disease's outbreak. In particular, we featured the differences in students' learning behaviors between private schools and public schools, as well as between students who plan to follow STEM-related careers and those who intend to engage in social science-related careers. The empirical evidence of this study can be used for the consideration of the local government to increase the sustainability of coming policies and regulations to boost students' self-efficacy, as it will affect 1.4 million students in Hanoi, as well as the larger population of nearly 10 million Vietnamese students. These results can also be the foundation for future investigations on how to elevate students' learning habits toward Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4)-Quality Education-especially in fanciful situations in which the regular school operation has been disrupted, counting with limited observation and support from teachers and parents.

positive: Returning Chinese school-aged children and adolescents to physical activity in the wake of COVID-19: Actions and precautions

positive: How much leeway is there to relax COVID-19 control measures? Following successful widespread non-pharmaceutical interventions aiming to control COVID-19, many jurisdictions are moving towards reopening economies and borders. Given that little immunity has developed in most populations, re-establishing higher contact rates within and between populations carries substantial risks. Using a Bayesian epidemiological model, we estimate the leeway to reopen in a range of national and regional jurisdictions that have experienced different COVID-19 epidemics. We estimate the risks associated with different levels of reopening and the likely burden of new cases due to introductions from other jurisdictions. We find widely varying leeway to reopen, high risks of exceeding past peak sizes, and high possible burdens per introduced case per week, up to hundreds in some jurisdictions. We recommend a cautious approach to reopening economies and borders, coupled with strong monitoring for changes in transmission.

positive: Children and the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, many school districts have closed for the remainder of the academic year. These closures are unfortunate because, for many students, schools are their only source of trauma-informed care and supports. When schools reopen, they must develop a comprehensive plan to address the potential mental health needs of their students. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

positive: Predictive Modeling on the Number of Covid-19 Death Toll in the United States Considering the Effects of Coronavirus-Related Changes and Covid-19 Recovered Cases COVID-19 is caused by a coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2. Many countries around the world implemented their own policies and restrictions designed to limit the spread of Covid-19 in recent months. Businesses and schools transitioned into working and learning remotely. In the United States, many states were under strict orders to stay home at least in the month of April. In recent weeks, there are some significant changes related restrictions include social-distancing, reopening states, and staying-at-home orders. The United States surpassed 2 million coronavirus cases on Monday, June 15, 2020 less than five months after the first case was confirmed in the country. The virus has killed at least 115,000 people in the United States as of Monday, June 15, 2020, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. With the recent easing of coronavirus-related restrictions and changes on business and social activity such as stay-at-home, social distancing since late May 2020 hoping to restore economic and business activities, new Covid-19 outbreaks are on the rise in many states across the country. Some researchers expressed concern that the process of easing restrictions and relaxing stay-at-home orders too soon could quickly surge the number of infected Covid-19 cases as well as the death toll in the United States. Some of these increases, however, could be due to more testing sites in the communities while others may be are the results of easing restrictions due to recent reopening and changed policies, though the number of daily death toll does not appear to be going down in recent days due to Covid-19 in the U.S. This raises the challenging question: * How can policy decision-makers and community leaders make the decision to implement public policies and restrictions and keep or lift staying-at-home orders of ongoing Covid-19 pandemic for their communities in a scientific way? In this study, we aim to develop models addressing the effects of recent Covid-19 related changes in the communities such as reopening states, practicing social-distancing, and staying-at-home orders. Our models account for the fact that changes to these policies which can lead to a surge of coronavius cases and deaths, especially in the United States. Specifically, in this paper we develop a novel generalized mathematical model and several explicit models considering the effects of recent reopening states, staying-at-home orders and social-distancing practice of different communities along with a set of selected indicators such as the total number of coronavirus recovered and new cases that can estimate the daily death toll and total number of deaths in the United States related to Covid-19 virus. We compare the modeling results among the developed models based on several existing criteria. The model also can be used to predict the number of death toll in Italy and the United Kingdom (UK). The results show very encouraging predictability for the proposed models in this study. The model predicts that 128,500 to 140,100 people in the United States will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, 2020. The model also predicts that between 137,900 and 154,000 people will have died of Covid-19 by July 31, and 148,500 to 169,700 will have died by the end of August 2020, as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 based on the Covid-19 death data available on June 13, 2020. The model also predicts that 34,900 to 37,200 people in Italy will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, and 36,900 to 40,400 people will have died by the end of August based on the data available on June 13, 2020. The model also predicts that between 43,500 and 46,700 people in the United Kingdom will have died of Covid-19 by July 4, and 48,700 to 51,900 people will have died by the end of August, as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 based on the data available on June 13, 2020. The model can serve as a framework to help policy makers a scientific approach in quantifying decision-makings related to Covid-19 affairs.

positive: Determining the optimal strategy for reopening schools, work and society in the UK: balancing earlier opening and the impact of test and trace strategies with the risk of occurrence of a secondary COVID-19 pandemic wave Background In order to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK government has imposed strict physical distancing (lockdown) measures including school 'dismissals' since 23 March 2020. As evidence is emerging that these measures may have slowed the spread of the pandemic, it is important to assess the impact of any changes in strategy, including scenarios for school reopening and broader relaxation of social distancing. This work uses an individual-based model to predict the impact of a suite of possible strategies to reopen schools in the UK, including that currently proposed by the UK government. Methods We use Covasim, a stochastic agent-based model for transmission of COVID-19, calibrated to the UK epidemic. The model describes individuals' contact networks stratified as household, school, work and community layers, and uses demographic and epidemiological data from the UK. We simulate a range of different school reopening strategies with a society-wide relaxation of lockdown measures and in the presence of different non-pharmaceutical interventions, to estimate the number of new infections, cumulative cases and deaths, as well as the effective reproduction number with different strategies. To account for uncertainties within the stochastic simulation, we also simulated different levels of infectiousness of children and young adults under 20 years old compared to older ages. Findings We found that with increased levels of testing of people (between 25% and 72% of symptomatic people tested at some point during an active COVID-19 infection depending on scenarios) and effective contact-tracing and isolation for infected individuals, an epidemic rebound may be prevented across all reopening scenarios, with the effective reproduction number (R) remaining below one and the cumulative number of new infections and deaths significantly lower than they would be if testing did not increase. If UK schools reopen in phases from June 2020, prevention of a second wave would require testing 51% of symptomatic infections, tracing of 40% of their contacts, and isolation of symptomatic and diagnosed cases. However, without such measures, reopening of schools together with gradual relaxing of the lockdown measures are likely to induce a secondary pandemic wave, as are other scenarios for reopening. When infectiousness of <20 year olds was varied from 100% to 50% of that of older ages, our findings remained unchanged. Interpretation To prevent a secondary COVID-19 wave, relaxation of social distancing including reopening schools in the UK must be implemented alongside an active large-scale population-wide testing of symptomatic individuals and effective tracing of their contacts, followed by isolation of symptomatic and diagnosed individuals. Such combined measures have a greater likelihood of controlling the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and preventing a large number of COVID-19 deaths than reopening schools and society with the current level of implementation of testing and isolation of infected individuals.

positive: COVID 19: Designing and conducting an online mini-multiple interview (MMI) in a dynamic landscape Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic presented numerous, significant challenges for medical schools, including how to select the best candidates from a pool of applicants when social distancing and other measures prevented "business as usual" admissions processes. However, selection into medical school is the gateway to medicine in many countries, and it is critical to use processes which are evidence-based, valid and reliable even under challenging circumstances. Our challenge was to plan and conduct a multiple-mini interview (MMI) in a dynamic and stringent safe distancing context.Methods: This paper reports a case study of how to plan, re-plan and conduct MMIs in an environment where substantially tighter safe distancing measures were introduced just before the MMI was due to be delivered.Results: We report on how to design and implement a fully remote, online MMI which ensured the safety of candidates and assessors.Discussion: We discuss the challenges of this approach and also reflect on broader issues associated with selection into medical school during a pandemic. The aim of the paper is to provide broadly generalizable guidance to other medical schools faced with the challenge of selecting future students under difficult conditions.

positive: On the digital frontier: Stakeholders in rural areas take on educational technology and schooling Even in the most remote U.S. rural contexts today technology is a part of schooling. This article explores stakeholders’ perceptions of educational technology as it relates to schooling in six rural districts in the state of Idaho. Stakeholder descriptions were collected using sondeo style focus groups with seven specific groups (students, parents, teachers, support staff, community members, principals, boards, and superintendents) in each district (n = 42). Stakeholders believe the educational technology in their schooling environments is both necessary and welcome in their districts; however, their assessments indicated that despite a decades-long policy push aimed at increasing educational equity, augmenting schooling facilities with technology presents complex resourcing challenges. The conclusion explores how different experiences and conceptualizations of context shape individuals’ understanding and implementation of educational technology. We argue that a more contextualized view of technology-oriented change is needed. One that better positions rural place as something to be protected (as opposed to overcome) in order to leverage the best of both what technology and place have to offer in changing rural communities.

positive: Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Early Childhood Care and Education

positive: Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force. The potential benefits from school closures need to be weighed against costs of health-care worker absenteeism associated with additional child-care obligations. In this study, we aimed to measure child-care obligations for US health-care workers arising from school closures when these are used as a social distancing measure. We then assessed how important the contribution of health-care workers would have to be in reducing mortality for their absenteeism due to child-care obligations to undo the benefits of school closures in reducing the number of cases. METHODS: For this modelling analysis, we used data from the monthly releases of the US Current Population Survey to characterise the family structure and probable within-household child-care options of US health-care workers. We accounted for the occupation within the health-care sector, state, and household structure to identify the segments of the health-care workforce that are most exposed to child-care obligations from school closures. We used these estimates to identify the critical level at which the importance of health-care labour supply in increasing the survival probability of a patient with COVID-19 would undo the benefits of school closures and ultimately increase cumulative mortality. FINDINGS: Between January, 2018, and January, 2020, the US Current Population Survey included information on more than 3·1 million individuals across 1·3 million households. We found that the US health-care sector has some of the highest child-care obligations in the USA, with 28·8% (95% CI 28·5–29·1) of the health-care workforce needing to provide care for children aged 3–12 years. Assuming non-working adults or a sibling aged 13 years or older can provide child care, 15·0% (14·8–15·2) of the health-care workforce would still be in need of child care during a school closure. We observed substantial variation within the health-care system. We estimated that, combined with reasonable parameters for COVID-19 such as a 15·0% case reduction from school closings and 2·0% baseline mortality rate, a 15·0% decrease in the health-care labour force would need to decrease the survival probability per percent health-care worker lost by 17·6% for a school closure to increase cumulative mortality. Our model estimates that if the infection mortality rate of COVID-19 increases from 2·00% to 2·35% when the health-care workforce declines by 15·0%, school closures could lead to a greater number of deaths than they prevent. INTERPRETATION: School closures come with many trade-offs, and can create unintended child-care obligations. Our results suggest that the potential contagion prevention from school closures needs to be carefully weighted with the potential loss of health-care workers from the standpoint of reducing cumulative mortality due to COVID-19, in the absence of mitigating measures. FUNDING: None.

positive: The prospects of sitting 'end of year' open book exams in the light of COVID-19: A medical student's perspective. Medical schools in the UK have been forced to dramatically restructure teaching and assessment amidst the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. As part of this, some have opted to assess progression through open book examinations (OBE). I aim to share my thoughts as an unsettled 4th year medical student about to embark on my first set of clinical exams conducted in this format. The difficulties associated with preparing for examinations under such unique and challenging circumstances cannot be underestimated. Working from home, during social distancing, surrounds students with the extra family stresses that we are all facing during this pandemic. This combined with a new, unfamiliar examination format will inevitably lead to students feeling daunted. While some would argue that an OBE may reward good problem solvers, students still require a strong foundation of knowledge. The luxury of reference will not be afforded in all clinical settings thus leading to concerns regarding students skimming over essential learning points. Furthermore, we cannot ignore the increased opportunity for academic misconduct resulting from an open book assessment format. Why are medical schools placing undue stress on students who could instead focus their attention on living compassionately for others during this difficult time?

positive: Paediatric COVID‐19 admissions in a region with open schools during the two first months of the pandemic According to the United Nations Educational, Science and Cultural Organization, 194 countries had implemented country‐wide school closures by April 1(st) 2020 in an effort to combat the COVID‐19 pandemic. It’s estimated that those closures affected 91.3% of students across the globe. However, Sweden adopted a different approach to the strict lockdowns imposed elsewhere and day care centres and schools for children up to 15 years of age remained open. The strategy decision to shift schools to distance learning only for children aged 16 years and older was influenced by multiple factors, including the potential impact on school closures on the availability of the healthcare work force, the increasing evidence of mainly mild infections among children and the potential negative consequences of school closures for younger children.

positive: Restructuring the inpatient advanced pharmacy practice experience to reduce the risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019: Lessons from Saudi Arabia INTRODUCTION: On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization announced the rapidly spreading epidemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic. Almost all countries started to take proactive precautionary measures to reduce the risk of contracting the virus. The education sector, including pharmacy education, has been drastically impacted by this pandemic. During the outbreak, many hospitals instructed the health profession's schools to restrict or prevent the presence of their students and interns in their hospitals in an effort to limit the spread of the virus. OBJECTIVES: Constraining the presence of interns in the affiliated hospital has impacted the integrity of delivering the learning outcomes of each clinical rotation. In this paper, we present the experience of four faculty preceptors in restructuring the advanced pharmacy practice experience in different clinical settings, including critical care, infectious diseases, cardiology, and internal medicine, in order to reduce the risk of contracting COVID‐19 at a large academic medical institution in Saudi Arabia. CONCLUSION: We believe that this experience could provide guidance and insights for other pharmacy schools dealing with this issue during this global pandemic.

positive: Children are unlikely to be the main drivers of the COVID‐19 pandemic – a systematic review AIM: Many countries have closed schools and kindergartens to minimise COVID‐19, but the role that children play in disease transmission is unclear. METHODS: A systematic literature review of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases and medRxiv/bioRxiv preprint servers to 11 May 2020 identified published and unpublished papers on COVID‐19 transmission by children. RESULTS: We identified 700 scientific papers and letters and 47 full texts were studied in detail. Children accounted for a small fraction of COVID‐19 cases and mostly had social contacts with peers or parents, rather than older people at risk of severe disease. Data on viral loads were scarce, but indicated that children may have lower levels than adults, partly because they often have fewer symptoms, and this should decrease the transmission risk. Household transmission studies showed that children were rarely the index case and case studies suggested that children with COVID‐19 seldom caused outbreaks. However, it is highly likely that children can transmit the SARS‐COV‐2 virus, which causes COVID‐19, and even asymptomatic children can have viral loads. CONCLUSION: Children are unlikely to be the main drivers of the pandemic. Opening up schools and kindergartens is unlikely to impact COVID‐19 mortality rates in older people.

positive: COVID-19 and the re-opening of schools: a policy maker's dilemma The epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread across the world. In order to counter this epidemic, several countries put in place different restrictive measures, such as the school's closure and a total lockdown. However, as the knowledge on the disease progresses, clinical evidence showed that children mainly have asymptomatic or mild disease and it has been suggested that they are also less likely to spread the virus. Moreover, the lockdown and the school closure could have negative consequences on children, affecting their social life, their education and their mental health. As many countries have already entered or are planning a phase of gradual lifting of the containment measures of social distancing, it seems plausible that the re-opening of nursery schools and primary schools could be considered a policy to be implemented at an early stage of recovery efforts, putting in place measures to do it safely, such as the maintenance of social distance, the reorganisation of classes into smaller groups, the provision of adequate sanitization of spaces, furniture and toys, the prompt identification of cases in the school environment and their tracing. Therefore, policy makers have the task of balancing pros and cons of the school re-opening strategy, taking into account psychological, educational and social consequences for children and their families. Another issue to be considered is represented by socio-economic disparities and inequalities which could be amplified by school's closure.

positive: Higher Education Institutions in Ukraine during the Coronavirus, or COVID-19, Outbreak: New Challenges vs New Opportunities In a matter of weeks the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has changed students' way of learning across the globe These changes let us envisage how education can modify for better or otherwise for worse over the long term COVID-19 2019/2020 has encouraged Higher Education Institutions in Ukraine to make innovative decisions in a relatively short period of time To provide distance education in Ukrainian universities during the quarantine there have been introduced offline and online courses through various web servers, platforms, resources, and social media: Moodle, Zoom, Skype, Viber, Telegram, Messenger, Google-class etc The summarized results of the questionnaire among Ukrainian students provided an opportunity to identify difficulties and benefits of introduced distance-learning The sources to provide the information for this work included regulations issued by public authorities in Ukraine (Head of State, executive and legislative bodies) as well as directives to administrations of Ukrainian higher education institutions

positive: Children and SARS-CoV-2 infection: innocent bystanders…until proven otherwise In this commentary, we focus our attention on what is known about SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pediatric population. We report literature and National data. The possible and different explanations for understanding why the infection seems to be more benign and less frequent in children are discussed. The possible role of children in the COVID-19 viral disease pandemic is also commented. Finally, our work suggests to search for future evidence and containment strategies to manage virus spread.

positive: Missouri K-12 school disaster and biological event preparedness and seasonal influenza vaccination among school nurses BACKGROUND: School preparedness for bioevents, such as emerging infectious diseases, bioterrorism, and pandemics, is imperative, but historically has been low. METHODS: The Missouri Association of School Nurses members were sent an online survey during the 2013-2014 school year to assess current bioevent readiness. There were 15 and 35 indicators of school disaster and bioevent preparedness, respectively. Multivariate linear regressions were conducted to delineate factors associated with higher school disaster and bioevent preparedness scores. RESULTS: In total, 133 school nurses participated, with a 33.6% response rate. On average, schools had fewer than half of the disaster or bioevent indicators. Disaster and bioevent preparedness scores ranged from 1-12.5 (mean, 6.0) and 5-25 (mean, 13.8), respectively. The least frequently reported plan components included bioterrorism-specific psychological needs addressed (1.5%, n = 2), having a foodservice biosecurity plan (8.3%, n = 11), and having a liberal sick leave policy for bioevents (22.6%, n = 30). Determinants of better bioevent preparedness include perception that the school is well prepared for a pandemic (P = .001) or natural disaster (P < .05), nurse being on the disaster planning committee (P = .001), and school being a closed point of dispensing (P < .05). CONCLUSION: Schools are underprepared for biological events and are not on track to meet state and national biological preparedness goals.

positive: Health Promoting Schools: An Update The concept of a Health Promoting School has been found to be effective to improve health and well-being of students as well as a help with teaching and learning in school. Effective implementation of Health Promoting School is a complex intervention involving multi-factorial and innovative activity in many domains such as curriculum, school environment and community. Many studies evaluating Health Promoting School do not include outcomes reflecting the organisational or structural change as many of those studies are quantitative in nature and the statistical assumptions are not valid reflecting the organisational structure changes. Recent global meetings of experts have reviewed the impact on student health from the perspectives of school environment, school policies on health, action competencies on healthy living and community linkage. The English Wessex Healthy School Award Scheme and the Hong Kong Healthy School Awards Scheme have developed detailed systems to analyse whether each individual school has reached the standard of a model Health Promoting School reflecting a more holistic appreciation and understanding of all the effects of school-based health promotion with positive award-related changes. However, not many schools are able to implement Health Promoting School in its entirety, so cores indicators are needed as a starting point for wider implementation. Hong Kong Healthy School Awards Scheme is still ongoing with data for analysis of indicators with significant correlation with better health and well-being. We identified the core indicators and substantiated the requirements for successful outcomes by supplementing the established award-scheme framework with a review of recent literature and documents. Framework of Health Promoting School would go beyond improvement of health literacy to enable a more efficient system for education and health on children, hence a good investment in children. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s40258-020-00575-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

positive: The global viralization of policies to contain the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic: analyses of school closures and first reported cases. Background With the exposure to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries swiftly implemented a variety of health policies. In this work we examine how rapid countries responded to this pandemic using two events: the day in which the first case of COVID-19 was reported, and first day in which countries used school closure as one of the measures to avoid outbreaks. Methods We compiled information from multiple sources, from December 31st 2019 to June 1st 2020, to trace when 172 countries reported their first COVID-19 case and implemented school closure to contain outbreaks. We applied cross-national Weibull survival analysis to evaluate the global speed of detection of first COVID-19 reported cases and school closure. We also assessed how health systems, globalization, economic development, political systems, and economic integration to China, Republic of Korea and Italy increased the speed of adoption. Results Ten days after the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 to be an international emergency, countries were 28 (95% CI: 12,77) times more likely to report first COVID-19 cases and 42 (95% CI: 22,90) times more likely to close schools. One standard deviation increase in the epidemic security index rises the rate of report first cases by 37% (Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.37 (95% CI: 1.09,1.72) and delays the adoption for school closures by 36% (HR 0.64 (95% CI:0.50,0.82). One standard deviation increase in the globalization index augments the adoption for school closures by 74% (HR 1.74 (95% CI:1.34,2.24). Conclusion. After the WHO declared a global emergency, countries were unprecedently acting very rapidly. While countries more globally integrated were swifter in closing schools, countries with better designed health systems to tackle epidemics were slower in adopting it. More studies are needed to assess how the speed of school closures and other policies will affect the development of the pandemic.

positive: Impact of an Education Intervention on Missouri K‐12 School Disaster and Biological Event Preparedness BACKGROUND: A 2011 nationwide school pandemic preparedness study found schools to be deficient. We examined the impact of a school nurse educational intervention aimed at improving K‐12 school biological event preparedness. METHODS: Missouri Association of School Nurses (MASN) members were e‐mailed a survey link in fall 2013 (ie, preintervention), links to online education modules (ie, intervention) in late fall, and a postintervention survey link in spring, 2014. School biological event readiness was measured using 35 indicators, for a possible score range of 0‐35. A paired t‐test compared pre‐ to postintervention preparedness scores. RESULTS: A total of 133 school nurses (33.6% response rate) completed a survey; 35.3% of those (N = 47) completed both pre‐ and postintervention survey that could be matched. Pre‐ and postintervention preparedness scores ranged from 5 to 28.5 ([Formula: see text] = 13.3) and 6.5 to 25 ([Formula: see text] = 14.8), respectively. Postintervention scores were significantly higher than preintervention scores for those who watched at least 1 module (t = −2.3, p < .05). CONCLUSION: The education intervention was effective at improving school preparedness, though the impact was small. The education intervention needs to be reassessed, especially in regard to providing a longer intervention period.

positive: Collective impacts on a global education emergency: The power of network response The COVID-19 pandemic is an emergency of an exceptional scale, with major impacts on education globally and with significant new challenges for education in existing humanitarian contexts. This Viewpoint reflects on the immediate challenges of continuing education in humanitarian contexts and on the experience of the Inter-agency Network for Education in Emergencies (INEE) as a network supporting collective action of Education in Emergencies (EiE) practitioners globally. It also looks forward at INEE’s plans to support quality distance education and issues to consider on the reopening of schools. It concludes with reflections on the needs and risks for EiE longer term.

positive: The COVID-19 pandemic and international federation of medical students' association exchanges: thousands of students deprived of their clinical and research exchanges The repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic for medical students are enormous and not limited to the interruption of courses in medical schools and/or hospital training rotations, the introduction of teaching exclusively online, postponement of examinations, and of the new academic year, but extend beyond that. The mobility of students within the framework of the International Federation of Medical Students' Associations (IFMSA) is also strongly affected by the unexpected interruption of this program and the deprivation of thousands of students worldwide of this fine opportunity for training, exchange and sharing. The International Federation of Medical Students' Associations (IFMSA) was founded in 1951 and currently maintains 135 National Member Organizations (NMOs) from 125 countries, representing a network of 1.3 million medical students around the globe. Moroccan students, members of IFMSA like students from other countries, are also concerned. Clinical and research exchanges, carried out under the auspices of the IFMSA, allow all the students to discover the health care and medical education systems of another country in a different sociocultural environment. To maintain student motivation and deal with the repercussions of cancelled exchanges, IFMSA could propose online training programs, adapted to student needs during this period of confinement and deconfinement from June to September 2020.

positive: Impacts of Early Interventions on the Age-Specific Incidence of COVID-19 in New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi Background COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented public health crisis and economic shock to the global economy. While many countries were affected, regions with an older population and weaker public health interventions tended to suffer more morbidity and mortality. Here we model and quantify the age-specific incidence of COVID-19 in four pandemic cities under different interventions. Methods We developed an age-specific and multiple-stage susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-hospitalized-quarantined-dead (SEIR-HQD) dynamical systems model expanded from the more basic SEIR model by incorporating location- and age-specific contact matrices to estimate the outcomes of COVID-19. Utilizing latest estimates of epidemiological parameters and demographic data, we model the potential effects of various interventions in four representative cities with different population structures - New York, Los Angeles, Daegu and Nairobi. We compared the effects of different interventions in the age-structure populations specific to each city. These policy options are then applied to determine the potential for effective containment. We model these dynamic policy scenarios to assess the risks of less-stringent social distancing, as has been proposed by those arguing to enhance economic activity over public health and safety. Finally, we explored the health impacts of different policy action timelines to understand the benefits of early interventions. Findings We find the spread of COVID-19 to be dramatically different in the regions modeled, with the primary drivers the variation of population age structures, and the dynamics of interactions of the younger demographics, whose higher interaction rates can lead to increasing transmission rates across these communities. A city with younger citizens may also have fewer hospitalized cases and deaths. Our modeling quantifies the value of early interventions, which avoided an additional 5%, 16%, 37% and 43% of the infections in Daegu, Nairobi, New York and Los Angeles, respectively, compared to what has been observed in the four cities. The finding is clear: in the absence of pharmaceutical options, delaying strict social policy interventions has resulted in substantial public health cost. This modeling can, and will, be applied to other cities and regions, and conducted in conjunction with other health insults, such as exposure to air pollution. Critically, we find that school closures, working from home, and reduction in other mobility were most beneficial for younger population (0-19 years old), middle-age (20-59 years old) population and older population (60 years and older), respectively across each city. Specifically, school closure avoided 25%, 18%, 16% and 12% of the infections for the population under 20 years old in Daegu, Los Angeles, New York and Nairobi, respectively. A 50% and 80% population working from home policy avoids 8% and 15% of the infections. Reduction in mobility was more effective than the working from home strategy. Any single social distancing policy if enacted alone can delay the spread of COVID-19 but was unable to totally suppress the infection. Coordinated policy action can be highly effective. Increasing the quarantine rate to 10% of infectious cases was more effective than strict social distancing alone in this study, although together they can suppress 80% of the epidemic. A combination of moderate social distancing and quarantine strategies was able to avoid 99% of the infections. Interpretation Moderate social distancing together with high quarantine rates was effective in each of the four cities. COVID-19 caused more deaths and hospitalization in cities with an ageing population than those with a younger population. However, in the cities with a younger population, there is a clear need to implement a social distancing strategy that is even more strict due to the higher transmission rates among younger people. Cities with more older people should prepare more hospital beds and healthcare facilities to save people who are in critical conditions. Cities with ageing population should take targeted action for the elderly to avoid the severe impacts on the vulnerable populations. Increasing quarantine rate is an effective strategy to avoid the substantial infection while also does not influence the economy fiercely. We recommend countries or regions experiencing, or likely to experience the rapid spread of COVID-19, to implement combination of multiple strategies in the early stage of the breakout which can avoid over 90% of infected cases.

positive: Early Detection for Cases of Enterovirus- and Influenza-Like Illness through a Newly Established School-Based Syndromic Surveillance System in Taipei, January 2010 ~ August 2011 School children may transmit pathogens with cluster cases occurring on campuses and in families. In response to the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Taipei City Government officials developed a School-based Infectious Disease Syndromic Surveillance System (SID-SSS). Teachers and nurses from preschools to universities in all 12 districts within Taipei are required to daily report cases of symptomatic children or sick leave requests through the SID-SSS. The pre-diagnosis at schools is submitted firstly as common pediatric disease syndrome-groups and re-submitted after confirmation by physicians. We retrieved these data from January 2010 to August 2011 for spatio-temporal analysis and evaluated the temporal trends with cases obtained from both the Emergency Department-based Syndromic Surveillance System (ED-SSS) and the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005). Through the SID-SSS, enterovirus-like illness (EVI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) were the two most reported syndrome groups (77.6% and 15.8% among a total of 19,334 cases, respectively). The pre-diagnosis judgments made by school teachers and nurses showed high consistency with physicians’ clinical diagnoses for EVI (97.8%) and ILI (98.9%). Most importantly, the SID-SSS had better timeliness with earlier peaks of EVI and ILI than those in the ED-SSS. Furthermore, both of the syndrome groups in these two surveillance systems had the best correlation reaching 0.98 and 0.95, respectively (p<0.01). Spatio-temporal analysis observed the patterns of EVI and ILI both diffuse from the northern suburban districts to central Taipei, with ILI spreading faster. This novel system can identify early suspected cases of two important pediatric infections occurring at schools, and clusters from schools/families. It was also cost-effective (95.5% of the operation cost reduced and 59.7% processing time saved). The timely surveillance of mild EVI and ILI cases integrated with spatial analysis may help public health decision-makers with where to target for enhancing surveillance and prevention measures to minimize severe cases.

positive: Impact Of Sars-Cov-2 And Its Reverberation In Global Higher Education And Mental Health BACKGROUND: : According to UNESCO's monitoring, more than 160 countries implemented nationwide closures, which impacted over 87% of the world's student population. Several other countries implemented localized school closures; should these closures become nationwide, millions of additional learners will experience education disruption. Universities from around the world have been uncertain about how long the coronavirus crisis will last and how it might affect the mental health of students and faculty. The psychological impact has been a critical disruptor, creating anxiety and uncertainty. METHOD: : The data were cross-checked with information from the main international newspapers. RESULTS: : By discussing online and distance education, the coronavirus opens an important and urgent issue that affects mental health – these are virtually unexplored topics, and their results have not been validated yet. Online education is not limited to distance education, as it regards a grouping of learning/teaching procedures completed in cyberspace. Blended learning was, thus, introduced as a tool in personalized learning to adjust to new realities. These are unprecedented circumstances, and we understand they create stress, favoring anguish and a fierce search for new knowledge acquisition. CONCLUSIONS: : Current research highlights that anxiety and depression, exacerbated by uncertainties and intensification of the information flow, will grow extensively. Negative physiological consequences of stress will manifest. For instance, loneliness, which will increase under these circumstances, seems to have a negative impact on education and, therefore, on psychological pain and suffering.

positive: Returning to School: Separation Problems and Anxiety in the Age of Pandemics The shift to the postpandemic school environment will cause dramatic changes and is likely to increase separation problems. In this article, we look at the anxiety problems that some parents and their children might experience when school reopens after the COVID-19 lockdown. Using a behavioral theory of development, we provide suggestions for how to handle the departure and separation problems that may emerge as parents drop their children off at school. Many parents are unsure about how to handle anxiety or fear as their children return to school or have to visit other environments outside their homes. Social distancing has caused families to develop stronger dependencies at home and to create new routines that vary, in many instances greatly, from their prepandemic routines. Families are adjusting to the new “normal.” They are keeping their children busy with schoolwork as best they can. In particular, families have likely developed close attachment relationships. Families have been struggling with an unprecedented lockdown, and for many parents and their children, this extended period of family confinement and severe restrictions has been especially stressful, and the timing for returning to school is uncertain. We emphasize here that parents can be responsive to their children’s needs, plan ahead, provide reassurance, and depart firmly without vacillating, and we provide other tips to avoid inadvertently shaping children’s negative or anxiety behaviors as they go back to school. We offer some specific advice for parents and teachers to follow to prevent the departure and separation problems that typically develop during challenging behavioral interactions in school settings.

positive: Proposed Changes to the 2021 Residency Application Process in the Wake of COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic has brought unique challenges to the delivery of undergraduate medical education, particularly for current third-year medical students who are preparing to apply to residency. In mid-March, medical schools suspended all clinical rotations for the remainder of the 2019–2020 academic year. As such, third-year medical students may not be able to complete sufficient clinical experiences to make important career choices before they have to submit their residency applications. While the decision to suspend clinical rotations was necessary to protect students, specialty organizations and residency programs must mitigate the deficits in students’ clinical education caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Perspective, the authors identify potential challenges for third-year medical students and advocate for solutions to improve the residency application process for students and programs. First, they propose delaying the date that programs can access applicant data through the Electronic Residency Application Service, thereby affording students more time to complete clinical experiences, solidify their specialty decision, and strengthen their residency application. Second, the authors recommend a restriction on the number of visiting rotations that students are expected to complete to allow for a more equitable distribution of these important experiences. Third, they suggest that program directors from each specialty agree on a maximum number of applications per applicant (based on historical data) to curb an upsurge in applications that may stem from the unique circumstances created by COVID-19 without causing applicants undue stress. Lastly, the authors advocate that residency programs develop infrastructure to conduct video-based interviews and engage students through virtual networking events. Amidst the unique environment created by COVID-19, the authors urge governing bodies, specialty organizations, and residency programs to consider these recommendations to improve the efficiency and reduce the stress surrounding the 2021 Match.

positive: Knowledge, attitudes, and practices towards COVID-19 among primary and middle school students during the COVID-19 outbreak period in Beijing: An online cross-sectional survey Abstract Purpose: This study investigated the KAP towards COVID-19 and their influencing factors among primary and middle school students during the self-quarantine period in Beijing. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study among students from 18 primary and middle schools in Beijing during March 2020. Stratified cluster sampling was conducted. Demographic and KAP-related COVID-19 information was collected through an online questionnaire. The influencing factors were analyzed by multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 7,377 students were included. The overall correct rate for COVID-19 knowledge was 74.1%, while only 31.5% and 40.5% could identify the high-risk places of cross-infection and warning body temperature. Although 94.5% of respondents believed the epidemic could be controlled, over 50% expressed various concerns about the epidemic. The compliance rates for basic preventing behaviors were all over 80%, while those for "rational and effective ventilation" (39.2%) and "dinning separately" (38.6%) were low. The KAP levels were significantly differed according to various school categories of students. The COVID-19 knowledge (OR= 3.309, 95% CI: 2.921, 3.748) and attitude (OR=1.145, 95% CI: 1.003, 1.308) were associated with preventive practices. Besides, female, urban students, those with a healthy lifestyle, and those with the willingness to engage in healthcare tended to have better preventive practices. Conclusion: Most students in Beijing hold a high level of knowledge, optimistic attitudes and have appropriate practices towards COVID-19. However, targeted interventions are still necessary, especially for students with high-risk characteristics. Keywords: COVID-19; primary and middle school students; knowledge; attitude; practice

positive: How can airborne transmission of COVID-19 indoors be minimised? During the rapid rise in COVID-19 illnesses and deaths globally, and notwithstanding recommended precautions, questions are voiced about routes of transmission for this pandemic disease. Inhaling small airborne droplets is probable as a third route of infection, in addition to more widely recognized transmission via larger respiratory droplets and direct contact with infected people or contaminated surfaces. While uncertainties remain regarding the relative contributions of the different transmission pathways, we argue that existing evidence is sufficiently strong to warrant engineering controls targeting airborne transmission as part of an overall strategy to limit infection risk indoors. Appropriate building engineering controls include sufficient and effective ventilation, possibly enhanced by particle filtration and air disinfection, avoiding air recirculation and avoiding overcrowding. Often, such measures can be easily implemented and without much cost, but if only they are recognised as significant in contributing to infection control goals. We believe that the use of engineering controls in public buildings, including hospitals, shops, offices, schools, kindergartens, libraries, restaurants, cruise ships, elevators, conference rooms or public transport, in parallel with effective application of other controls (including isolation and quarantine, social distancing and hand hygiene), would be an additional important measure globally to reduce the likelihood of transmission and thereby protect healthcare workers, patients and the general public.

positive: Epidemiological Investigation of the Outbreak of Acute Respiratory Infection caused by Adenovirus Type B55 in a Physical Education School in 2017 BACKGROUND: On May 19, 2017, the cluster of 6 acute respiratory infections due to adenovirus in the swimming department of a physical education school (School J) was reported to Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. An epidemiological investigation was conducted to identify the transmission route of the infection and to control the outbreak. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study (Study 1) was conducted on students and teachers of the athletic departments using the swimming pool, and a prospective surveillance (Study 2) was conducted on all students and teachers of the School J. A case was defined as any student and school personnel who developed more than two of the following symptoms from April 10 to July 2, 2017: fever, sore throat, cough, rhinorrhea, or headache. Relative risks (RRs) were calculated to compare the attack rates according to potential risk factors. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify the risk factors for infection in the outbreak. RESULTS: 47 cases were identified: 33 (55.9%) cases occurred among 59 students and teachers in Study 1 and 14 (3.9%) among 362 students and school personnel in Study 2. There were 18 laboratory confirmed adenovirus infection cases. The common symptoms were headache (71.7%), fever (69.6%), rhinorrhea (63.0%), sputum (56.5%), and sore throat (54.3%). 23.9% of the cases were accompanied with diarrhea and 19.6% with eye congestion. None of the cases developed pneumonia. 32.6% of the cases were hospitalized. In Study 1, attack rate in the swimming department was higher than that in others (RR: 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-3.60). In Study 2, being a member of the shooting department (RR: 20.70; 95% CI: 4.90-87.47) and being a first year high school student (RR: 10.95; 95% CI: 2.90-41.33) were identified as risk factors for the infections. Genetic analyses of the adenoviruses showed 100% identical sequence in homology and confirmed the human adenovirus B55 (HAdV-B55). No adenovirus was detected at examining the water and environment of the swimming pool and dormitory. CONCLUSION: The outbreak is inferred to be occurred via propagated transmission among the students in the same athletic department, while the students with symptoms of respiratory infection continued performing school activities without any restrictions. Infection control measures such as early detection of symptoms of respiratory infection and restriction of group activity are necessary to prevent respiratory infection outbreak in the communal living setting.

positive: Inequities in access to education: Lessons from the COVID‐19 pandemic The COVID‐19 pandemic has brought attention to the stark inequities in public education worldwide, with the United Nations sharing these statistics: Schools closed in 191 countries, affecting 1.5 billion students and 63 million primary and secondary school teachers. Half of students did not have access to a computer, and 40% did not have internet access. A total of 56 million children live in areas that are not served by mobile networks — for example, in sub‐Saharan Africa. In the United States, about 7 million school‐aged children are in homes without home internet service.

positive: Back to school: Safe for children with underlying medical conditions. As schools reopen as a result of low community transmission rates of COVID-19, parents and teachers will have understandable concerns about the risks to students and staff.

positive: Initial Coronavirus Disease–2019 Closure Strategies Adopted by a Convenience Sample of US School Districts: Directions for Future Research School closures are an important strategy to mitigate the impacts of a pandemic. But an optimal approach to transitioning from in-person to distance learning approaches is lacking. We analyzed a convenience sample of public K-12 schools in the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This initial snapshot provides some insights to inform future research into the variation of strategies across school districts, and would benefit from more rigorous methods to determine true correlations between demographic and geographic factors. Additionally, many of these strategies have evolved in response to ongoing and prolonged public health social distancing measures implemented after this analysis was conducted.

positive: Psychiatric symptoms, risk, and protective factors among university students in quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic in China This study investigated psychiatric symptoms (depression, anxiety, and traumatic stress) during state-enforced quarantine among university students in China. We conducted a cross-sectional survey with 1,912 university students during March and April 2020. Psychiatric symptoms in the mild or higher range based on clinical cut-offs were alarmingly prevalent: 67.05% reported traumatic stress symptoms, 46.55% had depressive symptoms, and 34.73% reported anxiety symptoms. Further, 19.56% endorsed some degree of suicidal ideation. We explored factors that may contribute to poor psychological health as well as those that may function as protective factors. Risk and protective factors examined included demographic variables, two known protective factors for mental health (mindfulness, perceived social support), four COVID-specific factors (COVID-19 related efficacy, perceived COVID-19 threat, perceived COVID-19 societal stigma, COVID-19 prosocial behavior) and screen media usage. Across psychiatric symptom domains, mindfulness was associated with lower symptom severity, while COVID-19 related financial stress, perceived COVID-19 societal stigma, and perceived COVID-19 threat were associated with higher symptom severity. COVID-19 threat and COVID-19 stigma showed main and interactive effects in predicting all mental health outcomes, with their combination associated with highest symptom severity. Average screen media device usage was 6 hours and usage was positively associated with depression. Female gender and COVID-19 prosocial behavior were associated with higher anxiety, while COVID-19 self-efficacy associated with lower anxiety symptoms. Study limitations and implications for treatment and prevention of affective disorders during crisis are discussed.

positive: The effectiveness and perceived burden of nonpharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 transmission: a modelling study with 41 countries Background: Existing analyses of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID19 transmission have focussed on the joint effectiveness of large-scale NPIs. With increasing data, we can move beyond estimating aggregate effects, to understanding the effects of individual interventions. In addition to effectiveness, policy decisions ought to reflect the burden different NPIs put on the population. Methods: To our knowledge, this is the largest data-driven study of NPI effectiveness to date. We collected chronological data on 9 NPIs in 41 countries between January and April 2020, using extensive fact-checking to ensure high data quality. We infer NPI effectiveness with a novel semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model, modelling both confirmed cases and deaths to increase the signal from which NPI effects can be inferred. Finally, we study the burden imposed by different NPIs with an online survey of preferences using the MaxDiff method. Results: Six NPIs had a >97.5% posterior probability of being effective: closing schools (mean reduction in R: 58%; 95% credible interval: 50% - 64%), limiting gatherings to 10 people or less (24%; 6% - 39%), closing nonessential businesses (23%; 5% - 38%), closing high-risk businesses (19%; 1% - 34%), testing patients with respiratory symptoms (18%; 8% - 26%), and stay-at-home orders (17%; 5% - 28%). These results show low sensitivity to 12 forms of varying the model and the data. The model makes sensible forecasts for countries and periods not seen during training. We combine the effectiveness and preference results to estimate effectiveness-to-burden ratios. Conclusions: Our results suggest a surprisingly large role for schools in COVID-19 transmission, a contribution to the ongoing debate about the relevance of asymptomatic carriers in disease spreading. We identify additional interventions with good effectiveness-burden tradeoffs, namely symptomatic testing, closing high-risk businesses, and limiting gathering size. Closing most nonessential businesses and issuing stay-at-home orders impose a high burden while having a limited additional effect.

positive: Key Questions for Modelling COVID-19 Exit Strategies Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced in countries worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement lockdown exit strategies that allow restrictions to be relaxed while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute Models for an exit strategy workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, will allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. The roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policy-makers, and is made up of three parts: i. improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; ii. understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; iii. focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in Low-to-Middle-Income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.

positive: Covid-19: local implementation of tracing and testing programmes could enable some schools to reopen.

positive: A Smart Card-Based Electronic School Absenteeism System for Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance in Hong Kong: Design, Implementation, and Feasibility Assessment BACKGROUND: School-aged children have the highest incidence of respiratory virus infections each year, and transmission of respiratory viruses such as influenza virus can be a major concern in school settings. School absenteeism data have been employed as a component of influenza surveillance systems in some locations. Data timeliness and system acceptance remain as key determinants affecting the usefulness of a prospective surveillance system. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of implementing an electronic school absenteeism surveillance system using smart card–based technology for influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance among a representative network of local primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong. METHODS: We designed and implemented a surveillance system according to the Protocol for a Standardized information infrastructure for Pandemic and Emerging infectious disease Response (PROSPER). We employed an existing smart card–based education and school administration platform for data capture, customized the user interface, and used additional back end systems built for other downstream surveillance steps. We invited local schools to participate and collected absenteeism data by the implemented system. We compared temporal trend of the absenteeism data with data from existing community sentinel and laboratory surveillance data. RESULTS: We designed and implemented an ILI surveillance system utilizing smart card–based attendance tracking approach for data capture. We implemented the surveillance system in a total of 107 schools (including 66 primary schools and 41 secondary schools), covering a total of 75,052 children. The system successfully captured information on absences for 2 consecutive academic years (2012-2013 and 2013-2014). The absenteeism data we collected from the system reflected ILI activity in the community, with an upsurge in disease activity detected up to 1 to 2 weeks preceding other existing surveillance systems. CONCLUSIONS: We designed and implemented a novel smart card technology–based school absenteeism surveillance system. Our study demonstrated the feasibility of building a large-scale surveillance system riding on a routinely adopted data collection approach and the use of simple system enhancement to minimize workload implication and enhance system acceptability. Data from this system have potential value in supplementing existing sentinel influenza surveillance for situational awareness of influenza activity in the community.

positive: Education and the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic is a huge challenge to education systems. This Viewpoint offers guidance to teachers, institutional heads, and officials on addressing the crisis. What preparations should institutions make in the short time available and how do they address students’ needs by level and field of study? Reassuring students and parents is a vital element of institutional response. In ramping up capacity to teach remotely, schools and colleges should take advantage of asynchronous learning, which works best in digital formats. As well as the normal classroom subjects, teaching should include varied assignments and work that puts COVID-19 in a global and historical context. When constructing curricula, designing student assessment first helps teachers to focus. Finally, this Viewpoint suggests flexible ways to repair the damage to students’ learning trajectories once the pandemic is over and gives a list of resources.

positive: Covid-19: US cases soar as Trump pushes for schools to open

positive: Little Risk of the COVID-19 Resurgence on Students in China (outside Hubei) Caused by School Reopening Objective: School reopening has not yet started in China where the COVID-19 outbreak has reached ending stage, largely due to a great concern about COVID-19 infections on students. We attempted to quantitatively evaluate the risk of COVID-19 infections on students caused by school reopening. Study design: We collected the data of the numbers of teachers, population size and newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the past 14 days in typical provinces/cities of China, and then analyzed the risk of COVID-19 infections in schools with respect to each province/city. Methods: A step-by-step procedure was explored to calculate the probability of COVID-19 infections on students as transmitted from infected teachers. Two critical assumptions for analysis were proposed: (i) only locally generated cases were counted while imported cases were omitted; (ii) the secondary attack rate of the COVID-19 virus in schools is similar to that in households in China, ranging from 3-10%. Results: The probability of COVID-19 resurgence within one week on students of primary, middle and high schools in China (outside Hubei) is extremely low (<0.2%) in each province/city, and such probability can be updated daily and weekly based on the newly confirmed cases in the past 14 days. In some areas without newly confirmed cases in the past 14 days, the risk is zero. Conclusions: Our work provides guidance for local governments to make risk level-based policies for school reopening. Currently, the risk of COVID-19 infections on students is extremely low in China (outside Hubei) and therefore school reopening can be initiated without the endanger of infections on students.

positive: Estimated Average Probabilities of COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death From Community Contact in the United States Importance: Case and death counts, government rules limiting social contact, media attention, peer behaviors, and analogies to war have all influenced public perceptions of risk to COVID-19. During an epidemic, the general public may not be accurately interpreting their individual risks from COVID19. U.S. public sentiment surveys indicate a high level of apprehension about routine community activities. Sufficient data allow estimating individual-level probabilities of infection, hospitalization, and death from community level contacts. Objective: Our objective is to estimate the average probability of acquiring COVID19 infection, being hospitalized or dying from a single unprotected and substantive community level contact with an individual of unknown infection status. Design: We estimate individual level probability of a contact resulting in infection using established principles of infection transmission, published data on the secondary attack rate, the current case incidence, the infectious period, the proportion of asymptomatic infection, and the case hospitalization and infection fatality ratios. Setting: U.S. Counties Outcomes: Probabilities of COVID19 infection, hospitalization, and death from a single unprotected person-contact in a community setting. Results: Among the 100 most populous US Counties, the median probability of COVID19 infection transmission at the end of May 2020 is 1 infection per 3836 unprotected community-level contacts (Range: 626 to 31,800). For a 50 to 64 year old individual, the estimated median probability of hospitalization is 1 hospitalization per 852,000 community level person contacts (Range: 139,000 to 7,080,000). For a 50 to 64 year old individual, the median probability of a fatality is 1 fatality per 19.1million community-level person-contacts (Range,:3.13 million to 159,000,000 million). Conclusions and Relevance: Across the country, current probabilities of infection transmission, hospitalization, and death from COVID19 vary substantially, yet severe outcomes are still rare events. Individuals may be overestimating their risks of hospitalization and death and a moderate number and frequency of community contacts is unlikely to overwhelm hospital capacity in most U.S. settings. Systematic public reporting of COVID19 case incidence and prevalence of seropositivity by age, risk group, locality and setting would improve individual-level risk estimation.

positive: Job loss at home: children’s school performance during the Great Recession This paper studies the intergenerational impact of parental job loss on school performance during the Great Recession in Spain. Collecting data through parental surveys in a school in the province of Barcelona, I obtain information about the parental labour market status before and after the Great Recession. I can then link this information to repeated information on their children’s school performance, for a sample of over 300 students. Using individual fixed effects, the estimates show a negative and significant decrease on average grades of around 15% of a standard deviation after father’s job loss. These results are mainly driven by those students whose fathers suffer long unemployment spells. In contrast, the average impact of mother’s job loss on school performance is close to zero and non-significant. The decline in school performance during the Great Recession after father’s job loss, particularly among disadvantaged students, could result in detrimental long-term effects that might contribute to increased inequality. This could be an important and underemphasised cost of recessions.

positive: Staying Home, Staying Safe? A Short-Term Analysis of COVID-19 on Dallas Domestic Violence Abstract COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the lives of persons around the world and social scientists are just beginning to understand its consequences on human behavior. One policy that public health officials put in place to help stop the spread of the virus were stay-at-home/shelter-in-place lockdown-style orders. While designed to protect people from the coronavirus, one potential and unintended consequence of such orders could be an increase in domestic violence – including abuse of partners, elders or children. Stay-at-home orders result in perpetrators and victims being confined in close quarters for long periods of time. In this study, we use data from Dallas, Texas to examine the extent to which a local order was associated with an increase in domestic violence. Our results provide some evidence for a short-term spike in the 2 weeks after the lockdown was instituted but a decrease thereafter. We note that it is difficult to determine just how much the lockdown was the cause of this increase as the domestic violence trend was increasing prior to the order.

positive: The effect of opening up the US on COVID-19 spread In response to the pandemic development of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), governments worldwide have implemented strategies of suppression by non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Such NPIs include social distancing, school closures, limiting international travel and complete lockdown. Worldwide the NPIs enforced to limit the spread of COVID-19 are now being lifted. Understanding how the risk increases when NPIs are lifted is important for decision making. Treating NPIs equally across countries and regions limits the possibility for modelling differences in epidemic response, as the response to the NPIs influences can vary between regions and this can affect the epidemic outcome, so do the strength and speed of lifting these. Our solution to this is to measure mobility changes from mobile phone data and their impacts on the basic reproductive number. We model the epidemic in all US states to compare the difference in outcome if NPIs are lifted or retained. We show that keeping NPIs just a few weeks longer has a substantial impact on the epidemic outcome.

positive: The Italian paediatric society raccomandations on children and adolescents extra-domestic activities during the SARS COV-2 emergency phase 2 BACKGROUND: Due to novel coronavirus infection emergency, restricting measures have been imposed in Italy. As well as adults, also children are limited in their daily routine. MAIN TEXT: As the lockdown period is expected to end on 3rd May 2020, we discuss the opportunity for children to practice safely recreational or physical activity outdoor. CONCLUSION: The Italian Paediatric Society recommends specific recreational and physical activities according to the age of the children and respecting social distancing.

positive: School closure, COVID-19 and lunch programme: Unprecedented undernutrition crisis in low-middle income countries The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has affected nearly 70% of children and teenagers around the world due to school closure policies. School closure is implemented widely in order to prevent viral transmission and its impact on the broader community, based on preliminary recommendations and evidence from influenza. However, there is debate with regard to the effectiveness of school closures. Growing evidence suggests that a child's SARS-CoV-2 infection is often mild or asymptomatic and that children may not be major SARS-CoV-2 transmitters; thus, it is questionable if school closures prevent transmission significantly. This question is important as a majority of children in low- and middle-income countries depend on free school meals; unexpected long-term school closure may adversely impact nutrition and educational outcomes. Food insecurity is expected to be higher during the pandemic. In this viewpoint, we argue for a more thorough exploration of potential adverse impacts of school closures in low- and middle-income countries and recommend actions to ensure that the health and learning needs of vulnerable populations are met in this time of crisis.

positive: Is the mental health of young students and their family members affected during the quarantine period? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in Albania INTRODUCTION: The use of quarantine method has a significant impact on mental health status. AIM: This study aimed to assess the levels of depression among bachelor and master university students (nurses/midwives) and their family members' during the quarantine period of COVID-19 pandemic. METHOD: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Vlora University, Albania. Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) was used. Institutional e-mails of all active students were used for their recruitment. RESULTS: In total, 863 students and 249 family members participated in the study. The mean PHQ-9 score was 6.220 (SD=5.803) and 6.280 (SD=5.857) for students and family members, respectively. Being unsatisfied with COVID-19 prevention measures, beliefs that COVID-19 infection and quarantine process can cause problems on their health status were the key factors for students to be screened positive for mental problems in multiple regression analysis. For parents, the last two factors were found to contribute significantly. DISCUSSION: Our findings indicate that quarantine measures have a significant impact on the levels of depression among both university students and their family members. Broader population studies are necessary to safeguard these results. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Provision of mental health services during the quarantine period is of paramount significance. Mental health first aid trainingand support could benefit both students and their parents significantly. Additionally, follow up services after the end of quarantine are recommended.

positive: Analyzing Covid-19 Data using SIRD Models The goal of this analysis is to estimate the effects of the diverse government intervention measures implemented to mitigate the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic. We use a process model based on a compartmental epidemiological framework Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Dead (SIRD). Analysis of case data with such a mechanism-based model has advantages over purely phenomenological approaches because the parameters of the SIRD model can be calibrated using prior knowledge. This approach can be used to investigate how governmental interventions have affected the Covid-19-related transmission and mortality rate during the epidemic.

positive: How Much May COVID-19 School Closures Increase Childhood Obesity? In a recent paper entitled, "COVID-19 Related School Closings and Risk of Weight Gain Among Children" Rundle et al. (2020) proposed the COVID-19 pandemic may increase obesity among American children because the pandemic, "will likely double out-of-school time this year for many children in the United States and will exacerbate the risk factors for weight gain associated with summer recess" (pg. 1). I add support to Rundle et al.'s argument by demonstrating that doubling of out-of-school time alone may lead to a sizable increase in childhood obesity.

positive: Medical Students and COVID-19: Challenges and Supportive Strategies As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to spread across the world, it is also adversely affecting medical student education. In addition, COVID-19 poses several challenges to medical students’ physical and mental health and their professional identity formation. Medical students are experiencing increasing anxiety due to the COVID-19 disruption. Medical students show higher rates of depression, suicidal ideation, and stigmatization around depression and are less likely to seek support. It is therefore important to safeguard their mental health and implement effective strategies to support their educational, physical, mental, and professional well-being.

positive: COVID-19-We urgently need to start developing an exit strategy AIM: The purpose of this perspective is to review the options countries have to exit the draconian "lockdowns" in a carefully staged manner. METHODS: Experts from different countries experiencing Corona Virus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19) reviewed evidence and country-specific approaches and the results of their interventions. RESULTS: Three factors are essential: 1. Reintroduction from countries with ongoing community transmission; 2. The need for extensive testing capacity and widespread community testing, and 3. An adequate supply of personal protective equipment, PPE, to protect health care workers. Discussed at length are lifting physical distancing, how to open manufacturing and construction, logistics, and the opening of higher educational institutions and schools. The use of electronic surveillance is considered. CONCLUSION: Each country should decide on the best path forward. However, we can learn from each other, and the approaches are, in reality, very similar.

positive: Debate: COVID-19 and psychological well-being of children and adolescents in Italy Italy was the first country in Europe to deal with COVID-19. Measures taken by the government to contain the spread of the virus were based mainly on quarantine and social distancing, with dramatic economic, social and psychological consequences. Since March, Italian children and adolescents are facing school closures, which have caused a disruption in the daily lives of millions of young people and their families. To date, despite the slow reopening, the government has decided to maintain school closures for the entire academic year, leaving the future of young people in uncertainty. There is already some evidence that quarantine and social isolation are having negative impact on children's and adolescents' psychological well-being. Moreover, this situation will mainly affect those children and adolescents with pre-existing vulnerabilities and those suffering of mental disorders. It is imperative to keep young people's needs at the core of reconstruction plans, allowing them to return to school safely, and providing them with some strategies to heal and dealing with this stressful and potentially traumatic situation.

positive: Impact of small-area lockdowns for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic Background Countries confronting the COVID-19 pandemic are implementing different social distancing strategies. We evaluated the impact of small-area lockdowns in Chile, aimed to reduce viral transmission while minimizing the population disrupted. The effectiveness of this intervention on the outbreak control is unknown. Methods A natural experiment assessing the impact of small-area lockdowns between February 15th and April 25th, 2020. We used mobility data and official governmental reports to compare regions with small-area lockdowns versus regions without. The primary outcome was the mean difference in the effective reproductive number (Re) of COVID-19. Secondary outcomes were changes in mobility indicators. We used quasi-experimental methods for the analysis and examined the impact of other concurrent public health interventions to disentangle their effects. Results Small-area lockdown produced a sizable reduction in human mobility, equivalent to an 11.4% reduction (95%CI -14.4% to -8.38%) in public transport and similar effects in other mobility indicators. Ten days after implementation, the small-area lockdown produced a reduction of the effective reproductive number (Re) of 0.86 (95%CI -1.70 to -0.02). School and university closures, implemented earlier, led to a 40% reduction in urban mobility. Closure of educational institutions resulted in an even greater Re reduction compared with small-area lockdowns. Conclusions Small-area lockdowns produced a reduction in mobility and viral transmission, but the effects were smaller than the early closures of schools and universities. Small-area lockdowns may have a relevant supporting role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission and could be useful for countries considering scaling-down stricter social distancing interventions.

positive: Gendered effects of school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic

positive: Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by WHO on March 11, 2020, the first non-influenza pandemic, affecting more than 200 countries and areas, with more than 5·9 million cases by May 31, 2020. Countries have developed strategies to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic that fit their epidemiological situations, capacities, and values. We describe China's strategies for prevention and control of COVID-19 (containment and suppression) and their application, from the perspective of the COVID-19 experience to date in China. Although China has contained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and nearly stopped indigenous transmission, a strong suppression effort must continue to prevent re-establishment of community transmission from importation-related cases. We believe that case finding and management, with identification and quarantine of close contacts, are vitally important containment measures and are essential in China's pathway forward. We describe the next steps planned in China that follow the containment effort. We believe that sharing countries' experiences will help the global community manage the COVID-19 pandemic by identifying what works in the struggle against SARS-CoV-2.

positive: Increased stressful impact among general population in mainland China amid the COVID-19 pandemic: A nationwide cross-sectional study conducted after Wuhan city's travel ban was lifted OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological responses and lifestyle changes among the general population in mainland China following the re-opening of the Wuhan city. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in April 2020. Participants of Chinese nationality aged â©¾ 18 years were asked to complete a modified validated Chinese version of a questionnaire regarding the impact of event scale (IES), family and social support, mental health-related lifestyle changes, and indicators of negative mental health impacts. RESULTS: A total of 728 participants (i.e., 217 males and 511 females) completed the questionnaire. The mean age of the participants was 32.9 ± 10.4 years, with a majority of them (92.2%) having a higher educational qualification level. The overall mean IES in participants was 21.5 ± 7.0, reflecting mild stressful impact (i.e., following the re-opening of the Wuhan city); 25.5% of the participants had an IES score â©¾ 26. Being females and married were significantly associated with a higher mean IES score. The overall mean scores for intrusion and avoidance score scales in participants were 9.4 ± 3.7 and 12.1 ± 4.2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased stressful impact in our participants following the re-opening of the Wuhan city when compared with our previous study, which should not be taken lightly.

positive: The Impact of School Closure for COVID-19 on the US Healthcare Workforce and the Net Mortality Effects Background COVID-19 is leading to the implementation of social distancing policies around the world and in the United States, including school closures. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce cases and ultimately mortality mostly comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the impact of school closure on the healthcare labor supply or the role of the healthcare labor force in reducing the per infection mortality from the pathogen. There is considerable uncertainty of the incremental effect of school closures on transmission and lives saved from school closures. The likely, but uncertain, benefits from school closure need to be weighed against uncertain, and seldom quantified, costs of healthcare worker absenteeism associated with additional child care obligations. Methods We analyze data from the US Current Population Survey to measure the potential child care obligations for US healthcare workers that will need to be addressed if school closures are employed as a social distancing measure. We account for the occupation within the healthcare sector, state, and household structure to identify the segments of the healthcare labor force that are most exposed to child care obligations from school closures. We use these estimates to identify the critical level for the importance of healthcare labor supply in increasing a patient's COVID-19 survival probability that would undo the benefits of school closures and ultimately increase cumulative mortality. Findings The US healthcare sector has some of the highest child care obligations in the United States. 29% of healthcare provider households must provide care for children 3-12. Assuming non-working adults or a sibling 13 years old or older can provide child care, leaves 15% of healthcare provider households in need of childcare during a school closure, while 7% of healthcare households are single-parent households. We document the substantial variation within the healthcare system. For example, 35% of medical assistants and 31% of nursing, psychiatric, and home health aide households have child care obligations, while only 24% of emergency medical personnel have childcare obligations. Child care obligations can vary between states by over 10 percentage points. A 15% decline in the healthcare labor force, combined with reasonable parameters for COVID-19 such as a 15% case reduction from school closings and 2% baseline mortality rate implies that a 15% loss in the healthcare labor force must decrease the survival probability per percent healthcare worker lost by 17.6% for a school closure to increase cumulative mortality. This means that the per infection mortality rate cannot increase from 2% to 2.35% when the healthcare workforce declines by 15%; otherwise, school closures will lead to a greater number of deaths than they prevent. For school closures to unambiguously provide a net reduction in COVID-19 mortality with these parameters, the school closures must reduce cases by over 25%. Conclusion School closures come with many tradeoffs. Setting aside economic costs, school closures implemented to reduce COVID-19 spread create unintended childcare obligations, which are particularly large in healthcare occupations. Detailed data are provided to help public health officials make informed decisions about the tradeoffs associated with closing schools. The results suggest that it is unclear if the potential contagion prevention from school closures justifies the potential loss of healthcare workers from the standpoint of reducing cummulative mortality.

positive: Consequences of physical distancing emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic: An australian perspective The sobering reality of the COVID-19 pandemic is that it has brought people together at home at a time when we want them apart in the community. This will bring both benefits and challenges. It will affect people differently based upon their age, health status, resilience, family support structures, and socio-economic background. This article will assess the impact in high income countries like Australia, where the initial wave of infection placed the elderly at the greatest risk of death whilst the protective measures of physical distancing, self-isolation, increased awareness of hygiene practices, and school closures with distance learning has had considerable impact on children and families acutely and may have ramifications for years to come.

positive: School and pre-school children with type 1 diabetes during covid-19 quarantine: the synergic effect of parental care and technology Abstract Introduction Management of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) poses numerous challenges, especially for young children and their families. Parental care positively influencesthe outcomesofchildren with T1D, while there are often criticisms in school environment. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced children and parents to spend many hours at home and diabetes care has returned mainly in the hands of parents. Aim of the study To evaluate the effectiveness of exclusive return to parental care in pre-school and school children with T1D treated with Tandem Basal IQ system during the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients and methods 22 children (M:F = 14:8) with T1D have been evaluated. We compared insulin and CGM data (TIR, TBR and TAR) of two periods: PRE-COV and IN-COV, in which children have transitioned from normal school attendance to the exclusive care of their parents. Results During the IN-COV period a significantly (p < 0.001) higher median value of TIR (66,41%) was observed as compared to PRE-COV period (61,45%). Patients also showed a statistically significant difference (p < 0.002) between the IN-COV period and the PRE-COV period as concerning the TAR metric: respectively 29,86 ± 10,6 % vs 34,73 ± 12,8 %. The difference between the bolus insulin doses was statistically significant (PRE-COV 5,3 IU/day, IN-COV 7,9 IU/day – p<0.05). Conclusion Our observational real-life study confirms the positive effect of parental care in T1D very young children and demonstrates that during the COVID-19 pandemic it was possible to obtain a good glycometabolic compensation despite the significant change in lifestyle.

positive: Modelling the impact of reducing control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in a low transmission setting Aims: We assessed COVID-19 epidemic risks associated with relaxing a set of physical distancing restrictions in the state of Victoria, Australia - a setting with low community transmission - in line with a national framework that aims to balance sequential policy relaxations with longer-term public health and economic need. Methods: An agent-based model, Covasim, was calibrated to the local COVID-19 epidemiological and policy environment. Contact networks were modelled to capture transmission risks in households, schools and workplaces, and a variety of community spaces (e.g. public transport, parks, bars, cafes/restaurants) and activities (e.g. community or professional sports, large events). Policy changes that could prevent or reduce transmission in specific locations (e.g. opening/closing businesses) were modelled in the context of interventions that included testing, contact tracing (including via a smartphone app), and quarantine. Results: Policy changes leading to the gathering of large, unstructured groups with unknown individuals (e.g. bars opening, increased public transport use) posed the greatest risk, while policy changes leading to smaller, structured gatherings with known individuals (e.g. small social gatherings) posed least risk. In the model, epidemic impact following some policy changes took more than two months to occur. Model outcomes support continuation of working from home policies to reduce public transport use, and risk mitigation strategies in the context of social venues opening, such as >30% population-uptake of a contact-tracing app, physical distancing policies within venues reducing transmissibility by >40%, or patron identification records being kept to enable >60% contact tracing. Conclusions: In a low transmission setting, care should be taken to avoid lifting sequential COVID-19 policy restrictions within short time periods, as it could take more than two months to detect the consequences of any changes. These findings have implications for other settings with low community transmission where governments are beginning to lift restrictions.

positive: Coronavirus: reducing the impact of quarantine On the 26th February 2020, a meeting was held at the Royal Society of Medicine between key advisers in UK healthcare and law enforcement to discuss quarantine measures in response to the current COVID‐19 outbreak. This article is a brief summary of the comments and questions raised at the meeting.

positive: Covid-19: Government must plan for schools to reopen, say paediatricians.

positive: The Role of Medical Student Government in Responding to COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has sown clinical and administrative chaos at academic health centers throughout the country. As COVID-19-related burdens on the health care system and medical schools piled up, questions from medical students far outweighed the capacity of medical school administrators to respond in an adequate or timely manner, leaving students feeling confused and without clear guidance. In this Perspective, incoming and outgoing executive leaders of the University of Michigan Medical School Student Council and medical school deans outline the specific ways they were able to bridge the gap between medical students and administrators in a time of crisis. To illustrate the value of student government during uncertain times, the authors identify the most pressing problems faced by students at each phase of the curriculum-preclerkship, clerkship, and postclerkship-and explain how Student Council leadership partnered with administrators to find creative solutions to these problems and provide guidance to learners. They end by reflecting on the role of student government more broadly, identifying 3 guiding principles of student leadership and how these principles enable effective student representation.

positive: Household-Based Studies In Chapter 2 we introduced vaccine efficacy parameters that require conditioning on exposure to infection. Household studies were used as the basis for defining exposure to infection in vaccine studies as early as the 1930s in evaluating the efficacy of pertussis vaccines (Kendrick and Eldering 1939). In addition to evaluating vaccine efficacy, household studies have been used to learn about transmission and natural history of many infections. Aspects of the natural history studied in households include the transmissibility, the incubation and latent periods, the duration of infectiousness, and the serial interval between cases (Hope-Simpson 1952; Bailey 1957). Household studies have also been used to evaluate other interventions, such as post-exposure prophylaxis with influenza antiviral agents (Welliver et al 2001; Hayden et al 2004). Exposure to an infectious case within a household can be used as a natural challenge study, for example, when studying immunological correlates of protection (Storsaeter et al 1998). Longitudinal studies of pneumococcal carriage in households and schools have been used to estimate the acquisition and clearance rates for asymptomatic pneumococcal carriage. The general idea of a transmission unit is that individuals make contact sufficient for transmission within it. Households are the most common form of transmission unit used in studies. It allows easy identification of contacts between a case and susceptibles, and families are convenient units of study. Many other settings are also used as transmission units in studies and analyses that condition on exposure to infection. These include sexual partnerships, classrooms, schools, school buses, airplanes, day care centers, and workplaces, among others. Here we talk mostly about household studies, but many of the study designs and analyses are applicable with possibly slight modification to other transmission units as well. The term household is much easier for exposition than is “transmission unit”.

positive: Implications of COVID-19 on the General Surgery Match

positive: Twitter and Census Data Analytics to Explore Socioeconomic Factors for Post-COVID-19 Reopening Sentiment Investigating and classifying sentiments of social media users towards an item, situation, and system are very popular among the researchers. However, they rarely discuss the underlying socioeconomic factor associations for such sentiments. This study attempts to explore the factors associated with positive and negative sentiments of the people about reopening the economy, in the United States (US) amidst the COVID-19 global crisis. It takes into consideration the situational uncertainties (i.e., changes in work and travel pattern due to lockdown policies), economic downturn and associated trauma, and emotional factors such as depression. To understand the sentiment of the people about the reopening economy, Twitter data was collected, representing the 51 states including Washington DC of the US. State-wide socioeconomic characteristics of the people, built environment data, and the number of COVID-19 related cases were collected and integrated with Twitter data to perform the analysis. A binary logit model was used to identify the factors that influence people toward a positive or negative sentiment. The results from the logit model demonstrate that family households, people with low education levels, people in the labor force, low-income people, and people with higher house rent are more interested in reopening the economy. In contrast, households with a high number of members and high income are less interested to reopen the economy. The model can correctly classify 56.18% of the sentiments. The Pearson chi2 test indicates that overall this model has high goodness-of-fit. This study provides a clear indication to the policymakers where to allocate resources and what policy options they can undertake to improve the socioeconomic situations of the people and mitigate the impacts of pandemics in the current situation and as well as in the future.

positive: [Interim Guidelines for Prevention and Control of COVID-19 for Students Back to School]

positive: The Neglected Role of Physical Education Participation on Suicidal Ideation and Stress in High School Adolescents from South Korea Adolescents are at high risk of suicidal ideation and stress. This study aimed to investigate how physical education participation predicts suicidal ideation and stress in South Korean high school students. Data from the Twelfth Korea Youth Risk Behaviour Web-Based Survey 2016 (KYRBS) were used for analyses. Two multiple logistic regressions were performed to determine the influence of selected factors on suicidal ideation and stress (model 1: subjective health, social support, body mass index, academic achievement, perceived economic status of family, and physical education participation; model 2: adjusting for school type and year). Model 2 revealed negative associations between subjective health, academic achievement, perceived economic status of family, social support, physical education participation (≥2 times/weekly), and suicidal ideation for male students. Female students exhibited negative associations between subjective health, social support, and academic achievement, along with a positive association between body mass index and suicidal ideation. For both genders, stress was negatively associated with subjective health, social support, academic achievement, perceived economic status of family, and physical education participation (≥2 times/weekly). These findings suggest that participating in physical education can mitigate the risk of suicidal ideation and stress among high school students.

positive: Can the concept of Health Promoting Schools help to improve students' health knowledge and practices to combat the challenge of communicable diseases: Case study in Hong Kong? BACKGROUND: The growing epidemics of emerging infectious diseases has raised the importance of a setting approach and include the Health Promoting School (HPS) framework to promote better health and hygiene. Built on the concept of 'the' HPS framework, the Hong Kong Healthy Schools Award scheme includes "Personal Health Skills" as one of its key aspects to improve student hygiene knowledge and practices. This study examines the differences in student perceptions, knowledge and health behaviours between those schools that have adopted the HPS framework and those that have not adopted. METHODS: A cross-sectional study using multi-stage random sampling was conducted among schools with awards (HSA) and those schools not involved in the award scheme nor adopting the concept of HPS (non-HPS). For HSA group, 5 primary schools and 7 secondary schools entered the study with 510 students and 789 students sampled respectively. For the 'Non-HPS' group, 8 primary schools and 7 secondary schools entered the study with 676 students and 725 students sampled respectively. A self-administered questionnaire was used as the measuring instrument. RESULTS: Students in the HSA category were found to be better with statistical significance in personal hygiene practice, knowledge on health and hygiene, as well as access to health information. HSA schools were reported to have better school health policy, higher degrees of community participation, and better hygienic environment. CONCLUSION: Students in schools that had adopted the HPS framework had a more positive health behaviour profile than those in non-HPS schools. Although a causal relationship is yet to be established, the HPS appears to be a viable approach for addressing communicable diseases.

positive: The role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A rapid review Background: Understanding the role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is urgently required given its policy implications in relation to the reopening of schools and intergenerational contacts. Methods: We conducted a rapid review of studies that investigated the role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We synthesized evidence for four categories: 1) studies reporting documented cases of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by infected children; 2) studies presenting indirect evidence on the potential of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) children; 3) studies reporting cluster outbreaks of COVID-19 in schools; 4) studies estimating the proportions of children infected by SARS-CoV-2, and reported results narratively. Results: A total of 16 unique studies were included for narrative synthesis. There is limited evidence detailing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from infected children. We found two studies that reported a 3-month-old whose parents developed symptomatic COVID-19 seven days after caring for the infant and two children who may have contracted COVID-19 from the initial cases at a school in New South Wales. In addition, we identified six studies presenting indirect evidence on the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission by children, three of which found prolonged virus shedding in stools. There is little data on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We identified only two studies reporting outbreaks of COVID-19 in school settings and one case report of a child attending classes but not infecting any other pupils or staff. Lastly, we identified six studies estimating the proportion of children infected; data from population-based studies in Iceland, Italy, South Korea, Netherlands, California and a hospital-based study in the UK suggest children may be less likely to be infected. Conclusions: Preliminary results from population-based and school-based studies suggest that children may be less frequently infected or infect others, however current evidence is limited. Prolonged faecal shedding observed in studies highlights the potentially increased risk of faeco-oral transmission in children. Further seroprevalence studies (powered adequately for the paediatric population) are urgently required to establish whether children are in fact less likely to be infected compared to adults. Note: We plan to update this rapid review as new data becomes available. These updates are available at https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/uncover/completed-uncover-reviews.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 & Pediatric Mental Health: A Review of Recent Evidence SARS-CoV-2 was declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) and was met with lockdown policies to curb the spread of the disease. This meant that 890 million students in 114 countries would be affected by the closure of their educational institutes, affecting their mental health. Mental health disorders are suggested to have a well-correlated link to suicide which is the third most leading cause of death worldwide amongst children aged 15-19 years. According to WHO, 'health is a state of complete physical, mental and social wellbeing and not merely the absence of disease'. Hence the isolation brought about by SARS-CoV-2 is postulated to cause anxiety, fear, and depression amongst the pediatric population, due to the loss of socialization and separation from friends. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we highlight the major mental health issues in children aged 2-18 years, along with their causes, effects, and potential solutions to tackle these problems.

positive: Covid-19: Papers justifying government's plans to reopen schools are "inconclusive," say union bosses

positive: Projected geographic disparities in healthcare worker absenteeism from COVID-19 school closures and the economic feasibility of child care subsidies: a simulation study BACKGROUND: School closures have been enacted as a measure of mitigation during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It has been shown that school closures could cause absenteeism amongst healthcare workers with dependent children, but there remains a need for spatially granular analyses of the relationship between school closures and healthcare worker absenteeism to inform local community preparedness. METHODS: We provide national- and county-level simulations of school closures and unmet child care needs across the United States. We develop individual simulations using county-level demographic and occupational data, and model school closure effectiveness with age-structured compartmental models. We perform multivariate quasi-Poisson ecological regressions to find associations between unmet child care needs and COVID-19 vulnerability factors. RESULTS: At the national level, we estimate the projected rate of unmet child care needs for healthcare worker households to range from 7.5% to 8.6%, and the effectiveness of school closures to range from 3.2% (R(0) = 4) to 7.2% (R(0) = 2) reduction in fewer ICU beds at peak demand. At the county-level, we find substantial variations of projected unmet child care needs and school closure effects, ranging from 1.9% to 18.3% of healthcare worker households and 5.7% to 8.8% reduction in fewer ICU beds at peak demand (R(0) = 2). We find significant positive associations between estimated levels of unmet child care needs and diabetes prevalence, county rurality, and race (p < 0.05). We estimate costs of absenteeism and child care and observe from our models that an estimated 71.1% to 98.8% of counties would find it less expensive to provide child care to all healthcare workers with children than to bear the costs of healthcare worker absenteeism during school closures. CONCLUSIONS: School closures are projected to reduce peak ICU bed demand, but could disrupt healthcare systems through absenteeism, especially in counties that are already particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. Child care subsidies could help circumvent the ostensible tradeoff between school closures and healthcare worker absenteeism.

positive: Modeling the Impact of Behavior Changes on the Spread of Pandemic Influenza We use mathematical models to assess the impact of behavioral changes in response to an emerging epidemic. Evaluating the quantitative and qualitative impact of public health interventions on the spread of infectious diseases is a crucial public health objective. The recent avian influenza (H5N1) outbreaks and the 2009 H1N1 pandemic have raised significant global concerns about the emergence of a deadly influenza virus causing a pandemic of catastrophic proportions. Mitigation strategies based on behavior changes are some of the only options available in the early stages of an emerging epidemic when vaccines are unlikely to be available and there are only limited stockpiles of antiviral medications. Mathematical models that capture these behavior changes can quantify the relative impact of different mitigation strategies, such as closing schools, in slowing the spread of an infectious disease. Including behavior changes in mathematical models increases complexity and is often left out of the analysis. We present a simple differential equation model which allows for people changing their behavior to decrease their probability of infection. We also describe a large-scale agent-based model that can be used to analyze the impact of isolation scenarios such as school closures and fear-based home isolation during a pandemic. The agent-based model captures realistic individual-level mixing patterns and coordinated reactive changes in human behavior in order to better predict the transmission dynamics of an epidemic. Both models confirm that changes in behavior can be effective in reducing the spread of disease. For example, our model predicts that if school closures are implemented for the duration of the pandemic, the clinical attack rate could be reduced by more than 50%. We also verify that when interventions are stopped too soon, a second wave of infection can occur.

positive: Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severity BACKGROUND: There has been a variation in published opinions toward the effectiveness of school closure which is implemented reactively when substantial influenza transmissions are seen at schools. Parameterizing an age-structured epidemic model using published estimates of the pandemic H1N1-2009 and accounting for the cost effectiveness, we examined if the timing and length of school closure could be optimized. METHODS: Age-structured renewal equation was employed to describe the epidemic dynamics of an influenza pandemic. School closure was assumed to take place only once during the course of the pandemic, abruptly reducing child-to-child transmission for a fixed length of time and also influencing the transmission between children and adults. Public health effectiveness was measured by reduction in the cumulative incidence, and cost effectiveness was also examined by calculating the incremental cost effectiveness ratio and adopting a threshold of 1.0 × 10(7) Japanese Yen/life-year. RESULTS: School closure at the epidemic peak appeared to yield the largest reduction in the final size, while the time of epidemic peak was shown to depend on the transmissibility. As the length of school closure was extended, we observed larger reduction in the cumulative incidence. Nevertheless, the cost effectiveness analysis showed that the cost of our school closure scenario with the parameters derived from H1N1-2009 was not justifiable. If the risk of death is three times or greater than that of H1N1-2009, the school closure could be regarded as cost effective. CONCLUSIONS: There is no fixed timing and duration of school closure that can be recommended as universal guideline for different types of influenza viruses. The effectiveness of school closure depends on the transmission dynamics of a particular influenza virus strain, especially the virulence (i.e. the infection fatality risk).

positive: An analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral load by patient age As children are under-represented in current studies aiming to analyse transmission of SARS-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), their contribution to transmission is unclear. Viral load, as measured by RT-PCR, can inform considerations regarding transmission, especially if existing knowledge of viral load in other respiratory diseases is taken into account. RT-PCR threshold cycle data from 3303 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (out of 77,996 persons tested in total, drawn from across Germany) were analysed to examine the relationship between patient age and estimated viral load. Two PCR systems were used. In data from the PCR system predominantly used for community and cluster screening during the early phase of the epidemic (Roche LightCycler 480 II), when such screening was frequent practice, viral loads do not differ significantly in three comparisons between young and old age groups (differences in log10 viral loads between young and old estimated from raw viral load data and a Bayesian mixture model of gamma distributions collectively range between -0.11 and -0.43). Data from a second type of PCR system (Roche cobas 6800/8800), introduced into diagnostic testing on March 16, 2020 and used during the time when household and other contact testing was reduced, show a credible but small difference in the three comparisons between young and old age groups (differences, measured as above, collectively range between -0.43 and -0.83). This small difference may be due to differential patterns of PCR instrument utilization rather than to an actual difference in viral load. Considering household transmission data on influenza, which has a similar viral load kinetic to SARS-CoV-2, the viral load differences between age groups observed in this study are likely to be of limited relevance. Combined data from both PCR instruments show that viral loads of at least 250,000 copies, a threshold we previously established for the isolation of infectious virus in cell culture at more than 5% probability, were present across the study period in 29.0% of kindergarten-aged patients 0-6 years old (n=38), 37.3% of those aged 0-19 (n=150), and in 51.4% of those aged 20 and above (n=3153). The differences in these fractions may also be due to differences in test utilization. We conclude that a considerable percentage of infected people in all age groups, including those who are pre- or mild-symptomatic, carry viral loads likely to represent infectivity. Based on these results and uncertainty about the remaining incidence, we recommend caution and careful monitoring during gradual lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions. In particular, there is little evidence from the present study to support suggestions that children may not be as infectious as adults.

positive: Covid-19: Push to reopen schools risks new wave of infections, says Independent SAGE.

positive: COVID-19 and the impact of social determinants of health

positive: A unified activities-based approach to the modelling of viral epidemics and COVID-19 as an illustrative example A new approach to formulating mathematical models of increasing complexity to describe the dynamics of viral epidemics is proposed. The approach utilizes a map of social interactions characterizing the population and its activities and, unifying the compartmental and the stochastic viewpoints, offers a framework for incorporating both the patterns of behaviour studied by sociological surveys and the clinical picture of a particular infection, both for the virus itself and the complications it causes. The approach is illustrated by taking a simple mathematical model developed in its framework and applying it to the ongoing pandemic of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), with the UK as a representative country, to assess the impact of the measures of social distancing imposed to control its course.

positive: When and How to Lift the Lockdown? Global COVID-19 Scenario Analysis and Policy Assessment using Compartmental Gaussian Processes The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown measures can be lifted soon have since been central in public discourse. Data-driven models that predict COVID-19 fatalities under different lockdown policy scenarios are essential for addressing these questions and informing governments on future policy directions. To this end, this paper develops a Bayesian model for predicting the effects of COVID-19 lockdown policies in a global context -- we treat each country as a distinct data point, and exploit variations of policies across countries to learn country-specific policy effects. Our model utilizes a two-layer Gaussian process (GP) prior -- the lower layer uses a compartmental SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) model as a prior mean function with"country-and-policy-specific"parameters that capture fatality curves under"counterfactual"policies within each country, whereas the upper layer is shared across all countries, and learns lower-layer SEIR parameters as a function of a country's features and its policy indicators. Our model combines the solid mechanistic foundations of SEIR models (Bayesian priors) with the flexible data-driven modeling and gradient-based optimization routines of machine learning (Bayesian posteriors) -- i.e., the entire model is trained end-to-end via stochastic variational inference. We compare the projections of COVID-19 fatalities by our model with other models listed by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and provide scenario analyses for various lockdown and reopening strategies highlighting their impact on COVID-19 fatalities.

positive: The invisible workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic: Family carers at the frontline This is an open letter to acknowledge the essential and increasingly challenging role unpaid family carers are playing in the COVID-19 pandemic. The letter is written by members of the CAREWELL team, a HRB-funded project that aims to promote health and self-care behaviours among working family carers. Family carers provide care to family and friends in the community who need support due to old-age, disability and chronic illness. In many cases, family carers are supporting those who are considered most at risk in this pandemic meaning carers must reduce their own risk of infection in order to protect their dependent family members. The temporary reduction of some home care services, as well as school and creche closures, means that family carers are providing increased levels of care with little or no support. At a time when both worlds of work and care have been dramatically transformed, we wish to shed light on those who are currently balancing paid employment with a family caregiving role. We argue that there is much to be learned from the recent work restrictions that could benefit employees, including working family carers, beyond this pandemic. We also wish to build on the potential positives of a transformed society and encourage policy makers and employers to focus on what is currently being implemented, and to identify which measures could be used to create a bedrock of policies and practices that would offer robust and effective support to family carers. It is hoped that family carers will receive greater recognition for the significant role they play in society, providing essential care and alleviating the strain on health and social care systems, both during and post the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: A Decision Analytic Approach for Social Distancing Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has become a crucial public health issue in many countries including the United States. In the absence of the right vaccine strain and sufficient antiviral stockpiles on hand, nonpharmaceutical interventions have become valuable public health tools at the early stages of the pandemic and they are employed by many countries across the globe. These interventions are designed to increase social distancing between individuals to reduce the transmission of the virus and eventually dampen the burden on the healthcare system. The virus transmissibility is a function of the average number of contacts individuals have in their communities and it is highly dependent on population density and daily mobility patterns, along with other social factors. These show significant variation across the United States. In this article, we study the effectiveness of social distancing measures in communities with different population density. Specifically, first we show how the empirical estimation of reproduction number differs for two completely different states, thus the experience of the COVID-19 outbreak is drastically different, suggesting different outbreak growth rates in practice. Second, we develop an age-structured compartmental model for simulating the disease spread to demonstrate the variation in the observed outbreak characteristics. We find that early trigger and late trigger options present a trade-off between the peak magnitude and the overall death toll of the outbreak which may also vary across different populations.

positive: Could masks curtail the post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19 in the US? The community lockdown measures implemented in the United States, during late March to end of May of 2020, resulted in a significant reduction in the community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic throughout the country. However, a number of US states are currently experiencing an alarming post-lockdown resurgence of the pandemic, triggering the fear for a possible severe second wave of the pandemic in some US jurisdictions. We designed a mathematical model for addressing the key question of whether or not the universal use of face masks can halt or curtail such resurgence (and possibly avert a second wave, without having to undergo another cycle of major community lockdown) in the states of Arizona, Florida, New York and the entire US. The model was parametrized and fitted using cumulative mortality data from the four jurisdictions. Our study highlights the importance of early implementation of the community lockdown measures. In particular, a sizable reduction in the burden of the pandemic would have been recorded in each of the four jurisdictions if the community lockdown measures were implemented a week or two earlier. These reductions are greatly augmented if the early implementation of the lockdown measures is complemented with a public face masks use strategy. It is shown that the pandemic would have been almost completely suppressed from significantly taking off if the lockdown measures were implemented two weeks earlier, and if a sizable percentage of the residents of the four jurisdictions wore face masks during the respective lockdown periods. If the level of lifting of community lockdown is high (which entails allowing for greater community contacts and re-opening of businesses and social activities, in comparison to what was allowed during the community lockdown period), the states of Arizona and Florida will record a devastating second wave of the pandemic by the end of 2020, while the state of New York and the entire US will record milder second waves. If the level of lifting for the community lockdown was mild (i.e., only allowing very limited community contacts and business activities, in comparison to the lockdown period), only the state of Florida will experience a second wave. The severity of the projected second wave depends on the level of lifting of the community lockdown. For instance, the projected second wave for Arizona and Florida, associated with moderate and high level of lifting of lockdown, will be more severe than their respective first wave. For high level of lifting of lockdown measures, the increased use of face masks after the lockdown period greatly reduces the burden of the pandemic. In particular, for this high lifting scenario, none of the four jurisdictions will experience a second wave if half of their residents wear face masks consistently after their respective lockdown period). A testing strategy that increases the maximum detection rate of asymptomatic infected individuals (followed by contact tracing and self-isolation of the detected cases) greatly reduces the burden of the pandemic in all four jurisdictions, particularly if also combined with universal face mask use strategy. Universal use of face masks in public, with at least moderate level of compliance, could halt the post-lockdown resurgence of COVID-19, in addition to averting the potential for (or severity of) a second wave of the pandemic in each of the four jurisdictions.

positive: Covid-19: US cases soar as Trump pushes for schools to open.

positive: Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data Background: The pandemic caused by COVID-19 has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the acute morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies however carry a significant risk for mental health which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality, which is currently not included in modelling the impact of the pandemic. Methods: We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure as applied to Switzerland as an exemplar. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood physical abuse and social isolation as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We also estimated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans. Results: The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by a subpopulation of 2.1 percent of the population, the average of whom suffer an average 9.79 YLL. Conclusions: The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, model like the one presented here highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.

positive: Reopening schools after the COVID-19 lockdown

positive: COVID-19 screening strategies that permit the safe re-opening of college campuses Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic poses an existential threat to many US residential colleges: either they open their doors to students in September or they risk serious financial consequences. Objective: To define SARS-CoV-2 screening performance standards that would permit the safe return of students to campus for the Fall 2020 semester. Design: Decision and cost-effectiveness analysis linked to a compartmental epidemic model to evaluate campus screening using tests of varying frequency (daily-weekly), sensitivity (70%-99%), specificity (98%-99.7%), and cost ($10-$50/test). Reproductive numbers Rt = {1.5, 2.5, 3.5} defined three epidemic scenarios, with additional infections imported via exogenous shocks. We generally adhered to US government guidance for parameterization data. Participants: A hypothetical cohort of 5000 college-age, uninfected students. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): Cumulative tests, infections, and costs; daily isolation dormitory census; incremental cost-effectiveness; and budget impact. All measured over an 80-day, abbreviated semester. Results: With Rt = 2.5, daily screening with a 70% sensitive, 98% specific test produces 85 cumulative student infections and isolation dormitory daily census averaging 108 (88% false positives). Screening every 2 (7) days nets 135 (3662) cumulative infections and daily isolation census 66 (252) with 73% (4%) false positives. Across all scenarios, test frequency exerts more influence on outcomes than test sensitivity. Cost-effectiveness analysis selects screening every {2, 1, 7} days with a 70% sensitive test as the preferred strategy for Rt = {2.5, 3.5, 1.5}, implying a screening cost of {$470, $920, $120} per student per semester. Conclusions & Relevance: Rapid, inexpensive and frequently conducted screening (even if only 70% sensitive) would be cost-effective and produce a modest number of COVID-19 infections. While the optimal screening frequency hinges on the success of behavioral interventions to reduce the base severity of transmission (Rt), this could permit the safe return of student to campus.

positive: Screen time for children and adolescents during the COVID‐19 pandemic The coronavirus 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic has led to laws and policies including national school closures, lockdown or shelter in place laws, and social distancing recommendations that may translate to higher overall screen time among children and adolescents for the duration of these laws and policies. These policies may need to be periodically re‐instated to control future COVID‐19 recurrences or other national emergencies. Excessive screen time is associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, and insulin resistance because it increases sedentary time and is associated with snacking

positive: The implications of COVID-19 for the children of Africa

positive: Prevalence and socio-demographic correlates of psychological health problems in Chinese adolescents during the outbreak of COVID-19 Psychological health problems, especially emotional disorders, are common among adolescents. The epidemiology of emotional disorders is greatly influenced by stressful events. This study sought to assess the prevalence rate and socio-demographic correlates of depressive and anxiety symptoms among Chinese adolescents affected by the outbreak of COVID-19. We conducted a cross-sectional study among Chinese students aged 12–18 years during the COVID-19 epidemic period. An online survey was used to conduct rapid assessment. A total of 8079 participants were involved in the study. An online survey was used to collect demographic data, assess students’ awareness of COVID-19, and assess depressive and anxiety symptoms with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-7) questionnaire, respectively. The prevalence of depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and a combination of depressive and anxiety symptoms was 43.7%, 37.4%, and 31.3%, respectively, among Chinese high school students during the COVID-19 outbreak. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that female gender was the higher risk factor for depressive and anxiety symptoms. In terms of grades, senior high school was a risk factor for depressive and anxiety symptoms; the higher the grade, the greater the prevalence of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Our findings show there is a high prevalence of psychological health problems among adolescents, which are negatively associated with the level of awareness of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the government needs to pay more attention to psychological health among adolescents while combating COVID-19. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00787-020-01541-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

positive: Modelling Singapore COVID-19 pandemic with a SEIR multiplex network model In this paper, we have implemented a large-scale agent-based model to study the outbreak of coronavirus infectious diseases (COVID-19) in Singapore, taking into account complex human interaction pattern. In particular, the concept of multiplex network is utilized to differentiate between social interactions that happen in households and workplaces. In addition, weak interactions among crowds, transient interactions within social gatherings, and dense human contact between foreign workers in dormitories are also taken into consideration. Such a categorization in terms of a multiplex of social network connections together with the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) epidemic model have enabled a more precise study of the feasibility and efficacy of control measures such as social distancing, work from home, and lockdown, at different moments and stages of the pandemics.

positive: The COVID-19 pandemic: implications for dental education Aim This narrative review aims to report on the impacts of COVID-19 on the provision of dental education in the 67 dental schools in the United States (US). Having set the scene and current challenges, it aims to suggest some strategies to overcome the issues facing dental schools going forward.Background In the US the Occupational Safety and Health Administration classified dentists in the very high risk category because of the potential for exposure to the virus as a result of aerosol generating procedures (AGP). In the last 20 years there have been two previous outbreaks of coronaviruses (severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome) which resulted in no long-term changes in the provision of dental education. The recent paper from Wuhan, China described action in the height of the infection but no sustainable actions to deliver dental education going forward.Challenges The challenges identified include: protecting the health of students, faculty and staff; ensuring the continuity and quality of dental education; ensuring confidence in health and safety measures; and keeping up with guidance. There is some variation across the US but most schools have suspended clinical teaching and implemented stay at home policies. Others have implemented social distancing in laboratories including clinical skills. The final challenge is ensuring that students have the teaching, experience and are assessed to ensure the competency of the graduating student.Solutions Technology in teaching and learning offers many opportunities. For didactic teaching distance learning has been implemented. There are 'off the shelf' programmes for teaching and assessment. The development of bespoke content is time consuming and one solution is for schools to share material. Although still requiring social distancing, manikins and haptics offer some opportunities for skills training. The need for excellent information sharing with faculty and students is emphasised.Conclusion Schools should re-evaluate their policies and curricula and incorporate appropriate methods of distance learning permanently into their teaching. Students should have outreach and multi-professional support in order to allow them to assist in the community during public health crises. Finally, gaps have been identified in US dental schools preparedness for pandemics.

positive: Health-education to prevent COVID-19 in schoolchildren: a call to action BACKGROUND: There is currently considerable international debate around school closures/openings and the role of children in the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whilst evidence suggests that children are not impacted by COVID-19 as severely as adults, little is still known about their transmission potential, and with a lot of asymptomatic cases they may be silent transmitters (i.e. infectious without showing clinical signs of disease), albeit at a lower level than adults. In relation to this, it is somewhat concerning that in many countries children are cared for, or are often in close contact with, older individuals such as grandparents â the age group most at risk of acquiring serious respiratory complications resulting in death. MAIN TEXT: We emphasise that in the absence of a vaccine or an effective therapeutic drug, preventive measures such as good hygiene practices â hand washing, cough etiquette, disinfection of surfaces and social distancing represent the major (in fact only) weapons that we have against COVID-19. Accordingly, we stress that there is a pressing need to develop specific COVID-19 prevention messages for schoolchildren. CONCLUSION: An entertainment education intervention for schoolchildren systematically implemented in schools would be highly effective and fill this need. With such measures in place there would be greater confidence around the opening of schools.

positive: The impact of unplanned school closure on children’s social contact: rapid evidence review BACKGROUND: Emergency school closures are often used as public health interventions during infectious disease outbreaks to minimise the spread of infection. However, if children continue mixing with others outside the home during closures, the effect of these measures may be limited. AIM: This review aimed to summarise existing literature on children’s activities and contacts made outside the home during unplanned school closures. METHODS: In February 2020, we searched four databases, MEDLINE, PsycInfo, Embase and Web of Science, from inception to 5 February 2020 for papers published in English or Italian in peer-reviewed journals reporting on primary research exploring children’s social activities during unplanned school closures. Main findings were extracted. RESULTS: A total of 3,343 citations were screened and 19 included in the review. Activities and social contacts appeared to decrease during closures, but contact remained common. All studies reported children leaving the home or being cared for by non-household members. There was some evidence that older child age (two studies) and parental disagreement (two studies) with closure were predictive of children leaving the home, and mixed evidence regarding the relationship between infection status and such. Parental agreement with closure was generally high, but some disagreed because of perceived low risk of infection and issues regarding childcare and financial impact. CONCLUSION: Evidence suggests that many children continue to leave home and mix with others during school closures despite public health recommendations to avoid social contact. This review of behaviour during unplanned school closures could be used to improve infectious disease modelling.

positive: School Closure During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic: An Effective Intervention at the Global Level?

positive: Willingness to Accept Tradeoffs among Covid-19 Cases, Social-Distancing Restrictions, and Economic Impact: A Nationwide US Study We designed a discrete-choice experiment to quantify the extent to which US adults would accept greater risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 in return for lifting social-distancing restrictions and diminishing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. 5953 adults representing all 50 states had 4 distinctly different preference patterns. About 37% were risk minimizers reluctant to accept any increases in risk of contracting the virus. Another group (26%) was primarily concerned about time required for economic recovery, accepting increases in COVID-19 risk levels up to 16% to shorten recovery from 3 to 2 years. The remaining two groups diverged on the relative importance of reopening nonessential businesses. The larger group (26%) strongly preferred delaying reopening while the smaller group (13%) would accept COVID-19 risks well beyond 20% to avoid a delay in reopening. Political affiliation, race, household income and employment status were predictive of group membership.

positive: Covid-19: Government must plan for schools to reopen, say paediatricians

positive: Philippine Teachers’ Practices to Deal with Anxiety amid COVID-19 School closures, home quarantine, and social distancing implemented worldwide can cause a sudden anxiety even among teachers. A designed online survey collected data from Filipino teachers’ practices on how they deal with anxiety due to the COVID-19 outbreak. The practices include information seeking, preventive measures, and other coping mechanisms to deal with anxiety during the quarantine period. Results revealed that teachers practice virtual learning, communicate with the professional community, adhere to quarantine requirements, and find purposeful activities to deal with anxiety due to the suspension of national school-related activities in the country brought by the pandemic.

positive: Projected geographic disparities in healthcare worker absenteeism from COVID-19 school closures and the economic feasibility of child care subsidies: a simulation study BACKGROUND: School closures have been enacted as a measure of mitigation during the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It has been shown that school closures could cause absenteeism among healthcare workers with dependent children, but there remains a need for spatially granular analyses of the relationship between school closures and healthcare worker absenteeism to inform local community preparedness. METHODS: We provide national- and county-level simulations of school closures and unmet child care needs across the USA. We develop individual simulations using county-level demographic and occupational data, and model school closure effectiveness with age-structured compartmental models. We perform multivariate quasi-Poisson ecological regressions to find associations between unmet child care needs and COVID-19 vulnerability factors. RESULTS: At the national level, we estimate the projected rate of unmet child care needs for healthcare worker households to range from 7.4 to 8.7%, and the effectiveness of school closures as a 7.6% and 8.4% reduction in fewer hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) beds, respectively, at peak demand when varying across initial reproduction number estimates by state. At the county level, we find substantial variations of projected unmet child care needs and school closure effects, 9.5% (interquartile range (IQR) 8.2–10.9%) of healthcare worker households and 5.2% (IQR 4.1–6.5%) and 6.8% (IQR 4.8–8.8%) reduction in fewer hospital and ICU beds, respectively, at peak demand. We find significant positive associations between estimated levels of unmet child care needs and diabetes prevalence, county rurality, and race (p<0.05). We estimate costs of absenteeism and child care and observe from our models that an estimated 76.3 to 96.8% of counties would find it less expensive to provide child care to all healthcare workers with children than to bear the costs of healthcare worker absenteeism during school closures. CONCLUSIONS: School closures are projected to reduce peak ICU and hospital demand, but could disrupt healthcare systems through absenteeism, especially in counties that are already particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. Child care subsidies could help circumvent the ostensible trade-off between school closures and healthcare worker absenteeism.

positive: The Coronavirus Pandemic and Lessons Learned in Preschools in Norway, Sweden and the United States: OMEP Policy Forum The novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19, has moved rapidly across the world in 2020. This article reports on the recent consequences of the pandemic for early childhood education in Sweden, Norway, and the United States. The authors illustrate the effects of the pandemic on preschools in their countries, against a backdrop of frequent changes in infection and mortality rates, epidemiological understandings, government strategies, and mitigation strategies regarding preschool closures. Teachers report their experiences and actions in specific early childhood education settings, across the three national contexts. These experiential snapshots identify program priorities, parents’ and children’s reactions, and the commitment and concerns of teachers. The conversations reveal culturally situated similarities of early childhood educational practices but also differences across contexts. Teachers report on the challenges of their experiences but also benefits for their practice and how they engage with children and their families. Ideas about future preparedness for such pandemics are also discussed.

positive: An investigation of mental health status of children and adolescents in China during the outbreak of COVID-19 OBJECTIVE: : The sudden outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a dramatic effect on the mental health of the public. In the present study, we demonstrated the psychological effects on children and adolescents associated with the epidemic . METHODS: : By using convenience sampling method, questionnaires, such as Spence Child Anxiety Scale, Child Depression Inventory and Coping style Scale, were distributed to participating 359 children and 3254 adolescents online. RESULTS: : The anxiety levels of children and adolescents were (23.87±15.79) and (29.27±19.79), respectively. 22.28% respondents were suffering from depressive symptoms. Seven significant factors associated with increased levels of anxiety, including female, resident in urban regions, emotion-focused coping style. Nine factors associated with increased levels of depression, such as smartphone addiction (OR 1.411, 95% CI 1.099–1.180), Internet addiction (OR 1.844, 95% CI 1.209–2.811), and resident in Hubei province (OR 3.107, 95% CI 1.252–7.708). Two additional factors associated with decreased levels of depressive symptoms: hours spend on Internet per day before the epidemic (OR 0.652, 95% CI 0.609–0.697) and tendency to apply problem-focused coping style (OR 0.937, 95% CI 0.923–0.951). CONCLUSION: : Our findings indicate that the COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant psychosocial impact on children and adolescents. Findings of current levels of anxiety and depression not only highlight the need to address emotional distress for children and adolescents during the epidemic but also provide researchers with scientific fundamentals to formulate targeted interventions based on the significant influencing factors.

positive: Symptom-Based Isolation Policies: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Outbreaks of Influenza and COVID-19 BACKGROUND: Controlling the transmission of respiratory infections such as influenza and COVID-19 is a critical public health priority. Non-pharmaceutical intervention policies such as community quarantines, closures and travel bans are often implemented in emergencies but many of them are disruptive and difficult to maintain for extended periods of time. A promising alternative recommended by the CDC for influenza is requiring individuals showing fever symptoms to remain isolated at home until they are fever-free for at least one day, but there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of such symptom-based isolation policies. METHODS: Here we introduce a computational model of symptom-based isolation that accounts for the timing of symptoms, viral shedding and the population structure. It was validated on outbreaks of influenza in schools and modified to account for COVID-19. It was then used to estimate the outbreak curves and the attack rates (the proportion of the population infected) under one or more days of fever-based isolation. RESULTS: Using the model we find evidence that symptom-based isolation policies could reduce the attack rates of both influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks, and flatten the outbreak curves. Specifically, we found that across a range of influenza scenarios, a CDC-recommended policy of one day isolation following fever can reduce the attack rate from 27% of the population to 12%, and to 3% if the isolation is extended to two days. In COVID-19 transmission, we estimate that implementing one day post-fever isolation would reduce the attack rate from 79% to 71%, and there is possible benefit from isolation for six days. In both influenza and COVID-19, the policies are predicted to reduce the peak number of infected but not shorten the outbreak duration. CONCLUSIONS: Symptom-based isolation could be an important tool to control influenza and COVID-19 outbreaks in schools, and potentially other settings. We recommend that schools implement a post-fever isolation policy of two days for influenza and six days for COVID-19.

positive: Has COVID-19 Changed Crime? Crime Rates in the United States during the Pandemic In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, state-level governments across the United States issued mandatory stay-at-home orders around the end of March 2020. Though intended to stop the spread of the COVID-19 virus, the lockdowns have had sweeping impacts on life in ways which were not originally planned. This study’s purpose is to investigate the extent to which governmental responses to COVID-19 have impacted crime rates in the U.S. Compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019, crime – as measured by calls for service to law enforcement – has decreased markedly. However, there are multiple indications that the crime drop is being driven by decreases in minor offenses which are typically committed in peer groups. At the same time, serious crimes which are generally not committed with co-offenders (namely homicide and intimate partner violence) have either remained constant or increased. As such, the crime drop appears to be hiding a very disturbing trend where homicides remain unchanged and intimate partner batteries are increasing. Since many offenders would presumably be committing less serious crimes in a non-pandemic world, we raise attention to the possibility that mandatory lockdown orders may have taken minor offenders and placed them into situations where there is rampant opportunity for intimate partner violence, serious batteries, and homicides. While crime in the U.S. appears to be down overall, this good news should not blind us to a troubling co-occurring reality – a reality that paints a dim picture of unintended consequences to public health and criminal justice finances as a result of COVID-19 lockdowns.

positive: Half of children entitled to free school meals do not have access to the scheme during the COVID-19 lockdown in the UK. Objectives To investigate access to free school meals (FSM) among eligible children, to describe factors associated with uptake and investigate whether receiving FSM was associated with measures of food insecurity in the UK using the COVID-19 wave of the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHKS). Study design Cross sectional analyses of UKHLS COVID-19 wave data collected in April 2020. Methods UKHLS participants completed a COVID-19 questionnaire in April 2020. 635 children who were FSM eligible with complete data were included in the analytic sample. Accessing a FSM was defined as having receiving a FSM voucher or a cooked meal at school. Multivariable logistic regression was used to investigate (i) associations between characteristics and access to FSM and (ii) associations between access to FSM and household food insecurity measures. All analyses accounted for survey design and sample weights. Results 51% of eligible children accessed a FSM. Children in junior schools or above (aged 8+ years) (OR 11.81; 95% CI 5.54,25.19), who were low income (AOR 4.81; 95% CI 2.10,11.03) or still attending schools (AOR 5.87; 95% CI 1.70,20.25) were more likely to receive FSM. Children in Wales were less likely to access FSM than those in England (AOR 0.11; 95% CI 0.03,0.43). Receiving a FSM was associated with an increased odds of recently using a food bank, but not reporting feeling hungry. Conclusions In the month following the COVID-19 lockdown, 49% of eligible children did not receive any form of FSM. The present analyses highlight that the voucher scheme did not adequately serve children who could not attend school during the lockdown. Moreover, more needs to be done to support families relying on income-related benefits, who still report needed to access a foodbank. As scheme may be continued in summer or in second wave, large improvements will be needed to improve its reach.

positive: SARS-CoV2 infection and primary school closure

positive: Mathematic modeling of COVID-19 in the United States COVID-19, the worst pandemic in 100 years, has rapidly spread to the entire world in 2 months since its early report in January 2020. Based on the publicly available data sources, we developed a simple mathematic modeling approach to track the outbreaks of COVID-19 in the US and three selected states: New York, Michigan and California. The same approach is applicable to other regions or countries. We hope our work can stimulate more effort in understanding how an outbreak is developing and how big a scope it can be and in what kind of time framework. Such information is critical for outbreak control, resource utilization and re-opening of the normal daily life to citizens in the affected community.

positive: Quarantine Fatigue: first-ever decrease in social distancing measures after the COVID-19 outbreak before reopening United States By the emergence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, and its rapid outbreak worldwide, the infectious illness has changed our everyday travel patterns. In this research, our team investigated the changes in the daily mobility pattern of people during the pandemic by utilizing an integrated data panel. To incorporate various aspects of human mobility, the team focused on the Social Distancing Index (SDI) which was calculated based on five basic mobility measures. The SDI patterns showed a plateau stage in the beginning of April that lasted for about two weeks. This phenomenon then followed by a universal decline of SDI, increased number of trips and reduction in percentage of people staying at home. We called the observation Quarantine Fatigue. The Rate of Change (ROC) method was employed to trace back the start date of quarantine fatigue which was indicated to be April 15th. Our analysis showed that despite the existence of state-to-state variations, most states started experiencing a quarantine fatigue phenomenon during the same period. This observation became more important by knowing that none of the states had officially announced the reopening until late April showing that people decided to loosen up their social distancing practices before the official reopening announcement. Moreover, our analysis indicated that official reopening led to a rapid decline in SDI, raising the concern of a second wave of outbreak. The synchronized trend among states also emphasizes the importance of a more nationwide decision-making attitude for the future as the condition of each state depends on the nationwide behavior.

positive: Back to school: Safe for children with underlying medical conditions As schools reopen as a result of low community transmission rates of COVID-19, parents and teachers will have understandable concerns about the risks to students and staff.

positive: The impact of current and future control measures on the spread of COVID-19 in Germany The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), identified in China at the end of December 2019 and causing the disease COVID-19, has meanwhile led to outbreaks all over the globe with about 2.2 million confirmed cases and more than 150,000 deaths as of April 17, 2020. In view of most recent information on testing activity, we present here an update of our initial work. In this work, mathematical models have been developed to study the spread of COVID-19 among the population in Germany and to asses the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Systems of differential equations of SEIR type are extended here to account for undetected infections, as well as for stages of infections and age groups. The models are calibrated on data until April 5, data from April 6 to 14 are used for model validation. We simulate different possible strategies for the mitigation of the current outbreak, slowing down the spread of the virus and thus reducing the peak in daily diagnosed cases, the demand for hospitalization or intensive care units admissions, and eventually the number of fatalities. Our results suggest that a partial (and gradual) lifting of introduced control measures could soon be possible if accompanied by further increased testing activity, strict isolation of detected cases and reduced contact to risk groups.

positive: Twitter and Census Data Analytics to Explore Socioeconomic Factors for Post-COVID-19 Reopening Sentiment Investigating and classifying sentiments of social media users (e.g., positive, negative) towards an item, situation, and system are very popular among the researchers. However, they rarely discuss the underlying socioeconomic factor associations for such sentiments. This study attempts to explore the factors associated with positive and negative sentiments of the people about reopening the economy, in the United States (US) amidst the COVID-19 global crisis. It takes into consideration the situational uncertainties (i.e., changes in work and travel pattern due to lockdown policies), economic downturn and associated trauma, and emotional factors such as depression. To understand the sentiment of the people about the reopening economy, Twitter data was collected, representing the 51 states including Washington DC of the US. State-wide socioeconomic characteristics of the people (e.g., education, income, family size, and employment status), built environment data (e.g., population density), and the number of COVID-19 related cases were collected and integrated with Twitter data to perform the analysis. A binary logit model was used to identify the factors that influence people toward a positive or negative sentiment. The results from the logit model demonstrate that family households, people with low education levels, people in the labor force, low-income people, and people with higher house rent are more interested in reopening the economy. In contrast, households with a high number of members and high income are less interested to reopen the economy. The accuracy of the model is good (i.e., the model can correctly classify 56.18% of the sentiments). The Pearson chi2 test indicates that overall this model has high goodness-of-fit. This study provides a clear indication to the policymakers where to allocate resources and what policy options they can undertake to improve the socioeconomic situations of the people and mitigate the impacts of pandemics in the current situation and as well as in the future.

positive: How to Safely Reopen Colleges and Universities During COVID-19: Experiences From Taiwan Reopening colleges and universities during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses a special challenge worldwide. Taiwan is one of the few countries where schools are functioning normally. To secure the safety of students and staff, the Ministry of Education in Taiwan established general guidelines for college campuses. The guidelines delineated creation of a task force at each university; school-based risk screening based on travel history, occupation, contacts, and clusters; measures on self-management of health and quarantine; general hygiene measures (including wearing masks indoors); principles on ventilation and sanitization; regulations on school assemblies; a process for reporting suspected cases; and policies on school closing and make-up classes. It also announced that a class should be suspended if 1 student or staff member in it tested positive and that a school should be closed for 14 days if it had 2 or more confirmed cases. As of 18 June 2020, there have been 7 confirmed cases in 6 Taiwanese universities since the start of the pandemic. One university was temporarily closed, adopted virtual classes, and quickly reopened after 14 days of contact tracing and quarantine of possible contacts. Taiwan's experience suggests that, under certain circumstances, safely reopening colleges and universities this fall may be feasible with a combination of strategies that include containment (access control with contact tracing and quarantine) and mitigation (hygiene, sanitation, ventilation, and social distancing) practices.

positive: COVID-19 mathematical model reopening scenarios for Sao Paulo - Brazil The objective of the current investigation was to produce a generalized computational model to predict consequences of various reopening scenarios on COVID-19 infections rates and available hospital resources in Sao Paulo - Brazil. We were able to use the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model to fit both accumulated death data and corrected accumulated cases data associated with COVID-19 for both Brazil and the state of Sao Paulo. In addition, we were able to simulate the consequences of reopening under different possible scenarios in Brazil, in special for the state of Sao Paulo. The model was able to provide a predicted scenario in which reopening could occur with minimal impact on human life considering people careful behavior in combination with continued social distancing measures.

positive: Dataset of Vietnamese student's learning habits during COVID-19 A dataset was constructed to examine Vietnamese student's learning habits during the time schools were suspended due to the novel coronavirus - SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), in response to a call for interdisciplinary research on the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Elsevier, 2020). The questionnaires were spread over a network of educational communities on Facebook from February 7 to February 28, 2020. Using the snowball sampling method, researchers delivered the survey to teachers and parents to provide formal consent before they forwarded it to their students and children. In order to measure the influence of students' socioeconomic status and occupational aspirations on their learning habits during school closures, the survey included three major groups of questions: (1) Individual demographics, including family socioeconomic status, school type, and occupational aspirations; (2) Student's learning habits, including hours of learning before and during the period of school suspension, with and without other people's support; and (3) Students' perceptions of their self-learning during the school closures. There was a total of 920 clicks on the survey link, but only 460 responses accompanied by consent forms were received. Non-credible answers (e.g., year of birth after 2009, more than 20 hours of learning per day) were eliminated. The final dataset included 420 valid observations.

positive: Asymptomatic transmission and the infection fatality risk for COVID-19: Implications for school reopening Asymptomatic infection occurs for numerous respiratory viral diseases, including influenza and COVID-19. We seek to clarify confusion in three areas: age-specific risks of transmission and/or disease; various definitions for the COVID-19 “mortality rate”, each useful for specific purposes; and implications for student return strategies from pre-school through university settings.

positive: The COVID-19 pandemic and international federation of medical students' association exchanges: thousands of students deprived of their clinical and research exchanges. The repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic for medical students are enormous and not limited to the interruption of courses in medical schools and/or hospital training rotations, the introduction of teaching exclusively online, postponement of examinations, and of the new academic year, but extend beyond that. The mobility of students within the framework of the International Federation of Medical Students' Associations (IFMSA) is also strongly affected by the unexpected interruption of this program and the deprivation of thousands of students worldwide of this fine opportunity for training, exchange and sharing. The International Federation of Medical Students' Associations (IFMSA) was founded in 1951 and currently maintains 135 National Member Organizations (NMOs) from 125 countries, representing a network of 1.3 million medical students around the globe. Moroccan students, members of IFMSA like students from other countries, are also concerned. Clinical and research exchanges, carried out under the auspices of the IFMSA, allow all the students to discover the health care and medical education systems of another country in a different sociocultural environment. To maintain student motivation and deal with the repercussions of cancelled exchanges, IFMSA could propose online training programs, adapted to student needs during this period of confinement and deconfinement from June to September 2020.

positive: Rationing social contact during the COVID-19 pandemic: Transmission risk and social benefits of US locations To prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), some types of public spaces have been shut down while others remain open. These decisions constitute a judgment about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using mobility data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and economic statistics, we measure the relative transmission reduction benefit and social cost of closing 26 categories of US locations. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and service providers. We rank categories by their trade-off of social benefits and transmission risk via dominance across 13 dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that, from February to March 2020, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures indicate should be closed first.

positive: Finding ordinary magic in extraordinary times: child and adolescent resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic

positive: Nothing is new, but everything has changed: A viewpoint on the future school This Viewpoint argues that the debates about the future of education and the need to rethink the school model started long before the pandemic crisis. But the situation we are experiencing has accelerated this need and showed that changes are possible. Consumerist trends in education have been accentuated, now with the massive use of digital tools. These trends, which, since the beginning of the twenty-first century, have supported “personalization of learning”, can lead to the disintegration of the school. But dynamics of transformation and metamorphosis of the school have also emerged, reinforcing education as a public and common good. The authors seek to enunciate these dynamics that redefine three bases of the school model: the social contract around education, the organizational structure of the school, and the pedagogy of the lesson.

positive: Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Contact Rates during a Simulated Influenza Pandemic Measures to decrease contact between persons during an influenza pandemic have been included in pandemic response plans. We used stochastic simulation models to explore the effects of school closings, voluntary confinements of ill persons and their household contacts, and reductions in contacts among long-term care facility (LTCF) residents on pandemic-related illness and deaths. Our findings suggest that school closings would not have a substantial effect on pandemic-related outcomes in the absence of measures to reduce out-of-school contacts. However, if persons with influenzalike symptoms and their household contacts were encouraged to stay home, then rates of illness and death might be reduced by ≈50%. By preventing ill LTCF residents from making contact with other residents, illness and deaths in this vulnerable population might be reduced by ≈60%. Restricting the activities of infected persons early in a pandemic could decrease negative health impact.

positive: Pre-Clinical Remote Undergraduate Medical Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Survey Study  Background : The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated a sudden transition to remote learning in medical schools. We aimed to assess student perceptions of remote learning during the pre-clinical curricular training phase. Methods: A survey was distributed to first- and second-year medical students enrolled at the University of California San Diego School of Medicine in March 2020. Frequencies of responses to structured multiple-choice questions were compared regarding impacts of remote learning on quality of instruction and ability to participate, value of various remote learning resources, living environment, and preparedness for subsequent stages of training. Responses to open-ended questions about strengths and weaknesses of the remote curriculum and overall reflections were coded for thematic content. Results: Of 268 students enrolled, 104 responded (53.7% of first-year students and 23.9% of second-year students). Overall, students felt the quality of instruction and their ability to participate had been negatively affected. Most (64.1%) preferred the flexibility of learning material at their own pace. Only 25.5% of respondents still felt connected to the medical school or classmates. Most second-year students (56.7%) felt their preparation for the USMLE Step 1 exam was negatively affected and 43.3% felt unprepared to begin clerkships. In narrative responses, most appreciated the increased flexibility of remote learning but recognized that digital fatigue, decreased ability to participate, and lack of clinical skills and hands-on lab learning were notable deficits. Conclusions: Videocasted lectures uploaded in advance, electronic health record and telehealth training for students, and training for teaching faculty to increase technological fluency may be considered to optimize remote learning curricula.

positive: Pandemic school closures: risks and opportunities

positive: Covid-19 and its impact on child and adolescent psychiatry - a German and personal perspective As in other European countries, the current Covid-19 pandemic has not only massively restricted normal life in Germany, it is also having a significant effect on medical treatment, particularly in the areas of child and adolescent psychiatric care, as well as on university teaching. The federal structure of Germany and epidemiological differences between individual federal states has had a crucial impact on the regulations issued and their success. During the last number of weeks, tele-child-psychiatry and psychotherapy have increased, and outpatient services have been used cautiously and sparingly. Medical staff numbers will be augmented by doctors and nurses returning from retirement and also by medical students on a voluntary basis. The federal government has warned that discrepancies in education will increase due to the closure of schools. Questions of child protection are currently of particular importance in the context of such closures and the non-availability of day-care centres.

positive: Covid-19: Delaying school reopening by two weeks would halve risks to children, says iSAGE

positive: Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China Intense non-pharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact surveys data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact tracing information from Hunan Province. Daily contacts were reduced 7-8-fold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0-14 years are less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection than adults 15-64 years of age (odd ratio 0.34, 95%CI 0.24-0.49), while in contrast, individuals over 65 years are more susceptible to infection (odd ratio 1.47, 95%CI: 1.12-1.92). Based on these data, we build a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. While proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40-60% and delay the epidemic.

positive: Paediatric COVID-19 admissions in a region with open schools during the two first months of the pandemic

positive: A targeted e-learning approach to reduce student mixing during a pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread closure of schools and universities. These institutions have turned to distance learning to provide educational continuity. Schools now face the challenge of how to reopen safely and resume in-class learning. However, there is little empirical evidence to guide decision-makers on how this can be achieved. Here, we show that selectively deploying e-learning for larger classes is highly effective at decreasing campus-wide opportunities for student-to-student contact, while allowing most in-class learning to continue uninterrupted. We conducted a natural experiment at a large university that implemented a series of e-learning interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak. Analyses of >24 million student connections to the university Wi-Fi network revealed that population size can be manipulated by e-learning in a targeted manner according to class size characteristics. Student mixing showed accelerated growth with population size according to a power law distribution. Therefore, a small e-learning dependent decrease in population size resulted in a large reduction in student clustering behaviour. Our results show that e-learning interventions can decrease potential for disease transmission while minimizing disruption to university operations. Universities should consider targeted e-learning a viable strategy for providing educational continuity during early or late stages of a disease outbreak.

positive: Visualizing the invisible: class excursions to ignite children’s enthusiasm for microbes We have recently argued that, because microbes have pervasive – often vital – influences on our lives, and that therefore their roles must be taken into account in many of the decisions we face, society must become microbiology‐literate, through the introduction of relevant microbiology topics in school curricula (Timmis et al. 2019. Environ Microbiol 21: 1513‐1528). The current coronavirus pandemic is a stark example of why microbiology literacy is such a crucial enabler of informed policy decisions, particularly those involving preparedness of public‐health systems for disease outbreaks and pandemics. However, a significant barrier to attaining widespread appreciation of microbial contributions to our well‐being and that of the planet is the fact that microbes are seldom visible: most people are only peripherally aware of them, except when they fall ill with an infection. And it is disease, rather than all of the positive activities mediated by microbes, that colours public perception of ‘germs’ and endows them with their poor image. It is imperative to render microbes visible, to give them life and form for children (and adults), and to counter prevalent misconceptions, through exposure to imagination‐capturing images of microbes and examples of their beneficial outputs, accompanied by a balanced narrative. This will engender automatic mental associations between everyday information inputs, as well as visual, olfactory and tactile experiences, on the one hand, and the responsible microbes/microbial communities, on the other hand. Such associations, in turn, will promote awareness of microbes and of the many positive and vital consequences of their actions, and facilitate and encourage incorporation of such consequences into relevant decision‐making processes. While teaching microbiology topics in primary and secondary school is key to this objective, a strategic programme to expose children directly and personally to natural and managed microbial processes, and the results of their actions, through carefully planned class excursions to local venues, can be instrumental in bringing microbes to life for children and, collaterally, their families. In order to encourage the embedding of microbiology‐centric class excursions in current curricula, we suggest and illustrate here some possibilities relating to the topics of food (a favourite pre‐occupation of most children), agriculture (together with horticulture and aquaculture), health and medicine, the environment and biotechnology. And, although not all of the microbially relevant infrastructure will be within reach of schools, there is usually access to a market, local food store, wastewater treatment plant, farm, surface water body, etc., all of which can provide opportunities to explore microbiology in action. If children sometimes consider the present to be mundane, even boring, they are usually excited with both the past and the future so, where possible, visits to local museums (the past) and research institutions advancing knowledge frontiers (the future) are strongly recommended, as is a tapping into the natural enthusiasm of local researchers to leverage the educational value of excursions and virtual excursions. Children are also fascinated by the unknown, so, paradoxically, the invisibility of microbes makes them especially fascinating objects for visualization and exploration. In outlining some of the options for microbiology excursions, providing suggestions for discussion topics and considering their educational value, we strive to extend the vistas of current class excursions and to: (i) inspire teachers and school managers to incorporate more microbiology excursions into curricula; (ii) encourage microbiologists to support school excursions and generally get involved in bringing microbes to life for children; (iii) urge leaders of organizations (biopharma, food industries, universities, etc.) to give school outreach activities a more prominent place in their mission portfolios, and (iv) convey to policymakers the benefits of providing schools with funds, materials and flexibility for educational endeavours beyond the classroom.

positive: Feeling Like It is Time to Reopen Now? COVID-19 New Normal Scenarios based on Reopening Sentiment Analytics The Coronavirus pandemic has created complex challenges and adverse circumstances. This research discovers public sentiment amidst problematic socioeconomic consequences of the lockdown, and explores ensuing four potential sentiment associated scenarios. The severity and brutality of COVID-19 have led to the development of extreme feelings, and emotional and mental healthcare challenges. This research identifies emotional consequences - the presence of extreme fear, confusion and volatile sentiments, mixed along with trust and anticipation. It is necessary to gauge dominant public sentiment trends for effective decisions and policies. This study analyzes public sentiment using Twitter Data, time-aligned to COVID-19, to identify dominant sentiment trends associated with the push to 'reopen' the economy. Present research uses textual analytics methodologies to analyze public sentiment support for two potential divergent scenarios - an early opening and a delayed opening, and consequences of each. Present research concludes on the basis of exploratory textual analytics and textual data visualization, that Tweets data from American Twitter users shows more trust sentiment support, than fear, for reopening the US economy. With additional validation, this could present a valuable time sensitive opportunity for state governments, the federal government, corporations and societal leaders to guide the nation into a successful new normal future.

positive: Strengthening health care research and academics during and after COVID19 pandemic- an Indian perspective The world-wide crisis of COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted daily lives, global economies, intra/inter-countries political outlook and educational systems. Schools and colleges in India and abroad are under lock-down to maximize social distancing and minimize the spread of infection amongst students and teaching staff. Health sciences related universities and researchers are forced to adopt non-contact teaching and research. Present article highlights the positive impact and opportunities provided by COVID-19 crisis to health care research and academic set-up. We have compiled ethical, effective and practical guidelines and policies to mitigate the impact on health care related research and academic front during these pandemic times in an Indian perspective. These guidelines and management suggestions can be modified to suit region based cases and can be applied in global perspective also. The suggestions in the current article provide a working collaboration of students and teachers to effectively connect on virtual platforms to strengthen their research output, giving suggestions of data-sharing and rapid review of proposals by online review ethical boards. This time is proposed to be used for generating a positive impact on health and research sector to use each adversity as an opportunity.

positive: COVID-19 Community Stabilization and Sustainability Framework: An Integration of the Maslow Hierarchy of Needs and Social Determinants of Health All levels of government are authorized to apply coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) protection measures; however, they must consider how and when to ease lockdown restrictions to limit long-term societal harm and societal instability. Leaders that use a well-considered framework with an incremental approach will be able to gradually restart society while simultaneously maintaining the public health benefits achieved through lockdown measures. Economically vulnerable populations cannot endure long-term lockdown, and most countries lack the ability to maintain a full nationwide relief operation. Decision-makers need to understand this risk and how the Maslow hierarchy of needs and the social determinants of health can guide whole of society policies. Aligning decisions with societal needs will help ensure all segments of society are catered to and met while managing the crisis. This must inform the process of incremental easing of lockdowns to facilitate the resumption of community foundations, such as commerce, education, and employment in a manner that protects those most vulnerable to COVID-19. This study proposes a framework for identifying a path forward. It reflects on baseline requirements, regulations and recommendations, triggers, and implementation. Those desiring a successful recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic need to adopt an evidence-based framework now to ensure community stabilization and sustainability.

positive: Repeat SARS-CoV-2 Testing Models for Residential College Populations Residential colleges are considering re-opening under uncertain futures regarding the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing models for the purpose of containing outbreaks in the residential campus community. The goal of repeat testing is to rapidly detect and isolate new infections as they occur to block transmission that would otherwise occur on campus and, of arguably greater importance, off. The models allow for the evolution of test sensitivity with time from infection, scheduled on-campus resident screening at a given frequency, imported infections from off campus throughout the school year, and a lag from testing until student isolation due to laboratory turnaround and student relocation delay. For early- (late-) transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by age of infection, we find that weekly screening cannot reliably contain outbreaks with reproductive numbers above 1.4 (1.6) if more than one imported exposure per 10,000 students occurs daily. Screening every three days can contain outbreaks providing the reproductive number remains below 1.75 (2.3) if transmission happens earlier (later) with time from infection, but at the cost of greatly increased false positive rates requiring more isolation quarters for students testing positive. Testing frequently while minimizing the delay from testing until isolation for those found positive are the most controllable levers for preventing large residential college outbreaks.

positive: Reopening universities during the COVID-19 pandemic: A testing strategy to minimize active cases and delay outbreaks Background: University campuses present an ideal environment for viral spread and are therefore at extreme risk of serving as a hotbed for a COVID-19 outbreak. While active surveillance throughout the semester such as widespread testing, contact tracing, and case isolation, may assist in detecting and preventing early outbreaks, these strategies will not be sufficient should a larger outbreak occur. It is therefore necessary to limit the initial number of active cases at the start of the semester. We examine the impact of pre-semester NAT testing on disease spread in a university setting. Methods: We implement simple dynamic transmission models of SARS-CoV-2 infection to explore the effects of pre-semester testing strategies on the number of active infections and occupied isolation beds throughout the semester. We assume an infectious period of 3 days and vary R0 to represent the effectiveness of disease mitigation strategies throughout the semester. We assume the prevalence of active cases at the beginning of the semester is 5%. The sensitivity of the NAT test is set at 90%. Results: If no pre-semester screening is mandated, the peak number of active infections occurs in under 10 days and the size of the peak is substantial, ranging from 5,000 active infections when effective mitigation strategies (R0 = 1.25) are implemented to over 15,000 active infections for less effective strategies (R0 = 3). When one NAT test is mandated within one week of campus arrival, effective (R0 = 1.25) and less effective (R0 = 3) mitigation strategies delay the onset of the peak to 40 days and 17 days, respectively, and result in peak size ranging from 1,000 to over 15,000 active infections. When two NAT tests are mandated, effective (R0 = 1.25) and less effective (R0 = 3) mitigation strategies delay the onset of the peak through the end of fall semester and 20 days, respectively, and result in peak size ranging from less than 1,000 to over 15,000 active infections. If maximum occupancy of isolation beds is set to 2% of the student population, then isolation beds would only be available for a range of 1 in 2 confirmed cases (R0 = 1.25) to 1 in 40 confirmed cases (R0 = 3) before maximum occupancy is reached. Conclusion: Even with highly effective mitigation strategies throughout the semester, inadequate pre-semester testing will lead to early and large surges of the disease and result in universities quickly reaching their isolation bed capacity. We therefore recommend NAT testing within one week of campus return. While this strategy is sufficient for delaying the timing of the outbreak, pre-semester testing would need to be implemented in conjunction with effective mitigation strategies to reduce the outbreak size.

positive: Effective Teaching and Examination Strategies for Undergraduate Learning During COVID-19 School Restrictions On Friday, March 13, 2020, all school teaching in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies was suspended until further notice because of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic. This immediately jeopardized the completion of course content at the University of the West Indies, St. Augustine campus. This article presents effective teaching and examination strategies that can be utilized in teaching undergraduates during COVID-19 school restrictions. The introductory digital electronics course of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the University of the West Indies will be utilized to demonstrate the merits of these strategies. The research will focus on demonstrating that the teaching methodologies utilized avoided the student performance from degrading below what has been experienced in the past 5 academic years. Student feedback on the methodology utilized is also incorporated in this article to highlight key benefits gained by students.

positive: Un-Muting Medical Student Education: Utilizing Telemedicine During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond. UNSTRUCTURED Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, medical schools have paused traditional clerkships, eliminating direct patient encounters from medical student education for the immediate future. Telemedicine offers opportunities in a variety of specialties that can augment student education during this time. The projected growth of telemedicine necessitates that students learn new skills to be effective providers. In this Viewpoint, we delineate specific telehealth opportunities that teach core competencies for patient care, while also teaching telemedicine specific skills. Schools can further augment student education through a variety of telemedicine initiatives across multiple medical fields. The explosion of telemedicine programs due to the pandemic can be a catalyst for schools to integrate telemedicine into their current curricula. The depth and variety of telemedicine opportunities allows schools to continue providing high quality medical education while maintaining social distancing policies.

positive: Children of COVID-19: pawns, pathfinders or partners? Countries throughout the world are counting the health and socioeconomic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the strategies necessary to contain it. Profound consequences from social isolation are beginning to emerge, and there is an urgency about charting a path to recovery, albeit to a ‘new normal’ that mitigates them. Children have not suffered as much from the direct effects of COVID-19 infection as older adults. Still, there is mounting evidence that their health and welfare are being adversely affected. Closure of schools has been a critical component of social isolation but has a far broader impact than the diminution of educational opportunities, as important as these are. Reopening of schools is therefore essential to recovery, with some countries already tentatively implementing it. Children’s interests are vital considerations in any recovery plan, but the question remains as to how to address them within the context of how society views children; should they be regarded as pawns, pathfinders or partners in this enterprise?

positive: Increased stressful impact among general population in mainland China amid the COVID-19 pandemic: A nationwide cross-sectional study conducted after Wuhan city's travel ban was lifted. OBJECTIVES Our study aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychological responses and lifestyle changes among the general population in mainland China following the re-opening of the Wuhan city. METHODS A cross-sectional survey was conducted in April 2020. Participants of Chinese nationality aged ⩾ 18 years were asked to complete a modified validated Chinese version of a questionnaire regarding the impact of event scale (IES), family and social support, mental health-related lifestyle changes, and indicators of negative mental health impacts. RESULTS A total of 728 participants (i.e., 217 males and 511 females) completed the questionnaire. The mean age of the participants was 32.9 ± 10.4 years, with a majority of them (92.2%) having a higher educational qualification level. The overall mean IES in participants was 21.5 ± 7.0, reflecting mild stressful impact (i.e., following the re-opening of the Wuhan city); 25.5% of the participants had an IES score ⩾ 26. Being females and married were significantly associated with a higher mean IES score. The overall mean scores for intrusion and avoidance score scales in participants were 9.4 ± 3.7 and 12.1 ± 4.2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased stressful impact in our participants following the re-opening of the Wuhan city when compared with our previous study, which should not be taken lightly.

positive: Education as the path to a sustainable recovery from COVID-19 COVID-19 has disrupted education for millions of children across the globe. The education community is re-imagining and re-designing to build back better. This Viewpoint takes the principles behind UNESCO’s Futures of Education initiative to highlight their importance in post-COVID-19 recovery. The pandemic has shown how communities can come together to educate children. The article argues that, post-COVID-19, education systems should recognize community-driven support systems, use technology to overcome the digital divide in learning, and focus more on SDG 4.7 and its links to climate crises.

positive: Forecasting COVID-19 and Analyzing the Effect of Government Interventions One key question in the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is understanding the impact of government interventions, and when society can return to normal. To this end, we develop DELPHI, a novel epidemiological model that captures the effect of under-detection and government intervention. We applied DELPHI across 167 geographical areas since early April, and recorded 6% and 11% two-week out-of-sample Median Absolute Percentage Error on cases and deaths respectively. Furthermore, DELPHI successfully predicted the large-scale epidemics in many areas months before, including US, UK and Russia. Using the extracted government response, we find mass gathering restrictions and school closings on average reduced infection rates the most, at 29.9 {+/-} 6.9% and 17.3 {+/-} 6.7%, respectively. The most stringent policy, stay-at-home, on average reduced the infection rate by 74.4 {+/-} 3.7% from baseline across countries that implemented it. We also illustrate how DELPHI can be extended to provide insights on reopening societies under different policies.

positive: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Experiences and protocols from the Department of Prosthodontics at the Wuhan University ABSTRACT Statement of problem The novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic, and many countries and regions are still currently in the midst of the outbreak. This pandemic has caused prosthodontics units to suspend their clinical and educational operations in academia. Purpose The purpose of this article was to review the experiences from the Department of Prosthodontics, Wuhan University School and Hospital of Stomatology (DP-WHUSHS) during the COVID-19 outbreak and the protocols DP-WHUSHS utilized to resume clinical activities after the outbreak. Material and methods The descriptive approach was used in this article to provide a chronological narrative of the experiences and protocols from the DP-WHUSHS during the COVID-19 outbreak and after the outbreak. Results During the COVID-19 outbreak period, clinical care was provided for patients with dental emergencies using enhanced Grade 2 or Garde 3 personal protective equipment (PPE). Teledentistry was used to provide care for patients with non-emergency needs. Online webinars and lectures were provided for the predoctoral students, residents, and dentists to minimize the interruption in their education and engage the dental community amid the pandemic. Various factors were considered before clinical activities resumed after the outbreak subsided. Additional resources were allocated for facility preparation and management and employee training. New infection control and clinical operation protocols were developed to minimize the healthcare-associated infection of airborne transmission diseases. The psychological health and mental wellness of the employees were emphasized. Distance or online education is still under rapid development to provide students and dentists opportunities to advance their knowledge amid the pandemic. Conclusions Within the limitation of this descriptive review, the following conclusions were drawn. Patient welfare and emergency needs should be considered amid the pandemic. Enhanced Grade 2 or Grade 3 PPE should be used during the outbreak. Multifactorial considerations for work resumption after the outbreak included facility preparation and management, training for employees, and clinical operation management. In-person psychological consultation and online mental wellness programs were available to employees to improve their mental wellness. Distance or online education was under rapid development to minimize the interruption in education for the students and to engage the dental community amid a pandemic.

positive: Global Pandemics and the Aspiring Plastic Surgery Applicant: Challenges and Potential Solutions

positive: Analysis of CDC social control measures using an agent-based simulation of an influenza epidemic in a city BACKGROUND: The transmission of infectious disease amongst the human population is a complex process which requires advanced, often individual-based, models to capture the space-time details observed in reality. METHODS: An Individual Space-Time Activity-based Model (ISTAM) was applied to simulate the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical control measures including: (1) refraining from social activities, (2) school closure and (3) household quarantine, for a hypothetical influenza outbreak in an urban area. RESULTS: Amongst the set of control measures tested, refraining from social activities with various compliance levels was relatively ineffective. Household quarantine was very effective, especially for the peak number of cases and total number of cases, with large differences between compliance levels. Household quarantine resulted in a decrease in the peak number of cases from more than 300 to around 158 for a 100% compliance level, a decrease of about 48.7%. The delay in the outbreak peak was about 3 to 17 days. The total number of cases decreased to a range of 3635-5403, that is, 63.7%-94.7% of the baseline value. When coupling control measures, household quarantine together with school closure was the most effective strategy. The resulting space-time distribution of infection in different classes of activity bundles (AB) suggests that the epidemic outbreak is strengthened amongst children and then spread to adults. By sensitivity analysis, this study demonstrated that earlier implementation of control measures leads to greater efficacy. Also, for infectious diseases with larger basic reproduction number, the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical measures was shown to be limited. CONCLUSIONS: Simulated results showed that household quarantine was the most effective control measure, while school closure and household quarantine implemented together achieved the greatest benefit. Agent-based models should be applied in the future to evaluate the efficacy of control measures for a range of disease outbreaks in a range of settings given sufficient information about the given case and knowledge about the transmission processes at a fine scale.

positive: The Effect of Large-Scale Anti-Contagion Policies on the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Governments around the world are responding to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with unprecedented policies designed to slow the growth rate of infections. Many actions, such as closing schools and restricting populations to their homes, impose large and visible costs on society. In contrast, the benefits of these policies, in the form of infections that did not occur, cannot be directly observed and are currently understood through process-based simulations. Here, we compile new data on 1,659 local, regional, and national anti-contagion policies recently deployed in the ongoing pandemic across localities in China, South Korea, Iran, Italy, France, and the United States (US). We then apply reduced-form econometric methods, commonly used to measure the effect of policies on economic growth, to empirically evaluate the effect that these anti-contagion policies have had on the growth rate of infections. In the absence of any policy actions, we estimate that early infections of COVID-19 exhibit exponential growth rates of roughly 42% per day. We find that anti-contagion policies collectively have had significant effects slowing this growth. Our results suggest that similar policies may have different impacts on different populations, but we obtain consistent evidence that the policy packages now deployed are achieving large, beneficial, and measurable health outcomes. We estimate that, to date, current policies have already prevented or delayed on the order of 62 million infections across these six countries. These findings may help inform whether or when these ongoing policies should be lifted or intensified, and they can support decision-making in the other 180+ countries where COVID-19 has been reported.

positive: Transmission dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in India: the impact of holiday-related school closure. The role of social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic mitigation planning. However, the timing of 2009 pandemic provides a natural experiment for evaluating the impact of school closure during holidays on influenza transmission. To quantify the transmission intensity of the influenza A (H1N1) pdm'09 in India, by estimating the time varying reproduction number (Rt) and correlating the temporal changes in the estimates of Rt for different regions of India with the timing of school holidays. We used daily lab-confirmed case reports of influenza A (H1N1) pdm'09 in India (during 17 May'09 to 17 May'10), stratified by regions. We estimated the transmissibility of the pandemic for different regions from these time-series, using Bayesian methods applied to a branching process model of disease spread and correlated the resulting estimates with the timing of school holidays in each region. The North-west region experienced two notable waves, with the peak of the first wave coinciding with the start of a 4 week school holiday (September-October'09). In the southern region the two waves were less clear cut, though again the first peak of the first wave coincided with the start of school holidays--albeit of less than 2 weeks duration (August'09). Our analysis suggests that the school holidays had a significant influence on the epidemiology of the 2009 pandemic in India. We estimate that school holidays reduced the reproduction number by 14-27% in different regions of India, relative to levels seen outside holiday periods. The estimates of the reproduction number obtained (with peak R values below 1.5) are compatible with those reported from other regions of the world. This work reinforces past studies showing the significant impact of school holidays on spread of 2009 pandemic virus, and by inference the role of contact patterns in children on transmission.

positive: Children of COVID-19: pawns, pathfinders or partners? Countries throughout the world are counting the health and socioeconomic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic, including the strategies necessary to contain it. Profound consequences from social isolation are beginning to emerge, and there is an urgency about charting a path to recovery, albeit to a 'new normal' that mitigates them. Children have not suffered as much from the direct effects of COVID-19 infection as older adults. Still, there is mounting evidence that their health and welfare are being adversely affected. Closure of schools has been a critical component of social isolation but has a far broader impact than the diminution of educational opportunities, as important as these are. Reopening of schools is therefore essential to recovery, with some countries already tentatively implementing it. Children's interests are vital considerations in any recovery plan, but the question remains as to how to address them within the context of how society views children; should they be regarded as pawns, pathfinders or partners in this enterprise?

positive: Psychosocial impact of COVID-19 BACKGROUND: Along with its high infectivity and fatality rates, the 2019 Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) has caused universal psychosocial impact by causing mass hysteria, economic burden and financial losses. Mass fear of COVID-19, termed as “coronaphobia”, has generated a plethora of psychiatric manifestations across the different strata of the society. So, this review has been undertaken to define psychosocial impact of COVID-19. METHODS: Pubmed and GoogleScholar are searched with the following key terms- “COVID-19”, “SARS-CoV2”, “Pandemic”, “Psychology”, “Psychosocial”, “Psychitry”, “marginalized”, “telemedicine”, “mental health”, “quarantine”, “infodemic”, “social media” and” “internet”. Few news paper reports related to COVID-19 and psychosocial impacts have also been added as per context. RESULTS: Disease itself multitude by forced quarantine to combat COVID-19 applied by nationwide lockdowns can produce acute panic, anxiety, obsessive behaviors, hoarding, paranoia, and depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the long run. These have been fueled by an “infodemic” spread via different platforms social media. Outbursts of racism, stigmatization, and xenophobia against particular communities are also being widely reported. Nevertheless, frontline healthcare workers are at higher-risk of contracting the disease as well as experiencing adverse psychological outcomes in form of burnout, anxiety, fear of transmitting infection, feeling of incompatibility, depression, increased substance-dependence, and PTSD. Community-based mitigation programs to combat COVID-19 will disrupt children's usual lifestyle and may cause florid mental distress. The psychosocial aspects of older people, their caregivers, psychiatric patients and marginalized communities are affected by this pandemic in different ways and need special attention. CONCLUSION: For better dealing with these psychosocial issues of different strata of the society, psychosocial crisis prevention and intervention models should be urgently developed by the government, health care personnel and other stakeholders. Apt application of internet services, technology and social media to curb both pandemic and infodemic needs to be instigated. Psychosocial preparedness by setting up mental organizations specific for future pandemics is certainly necessary.

positive: Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate State and local governments imposed social distancing measures in March and April 2020 to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). These measures included bans on large social gatherings; school closures; closures of entertainment venues, gyms, bars, and restaurant dining areas; and shelter-in-place orders. We evaluated the impact of these measures on the growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases across US counties between March 1, 2020, and April 27, 2020. An event study design allowed each policy's impact on COVID-19 case growth to evolve over time. Adoption of government-imposed social distancing measures reduced the daily growth rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases by 5.4 percentage points after one to five days, 6.8 percentage points after six to ten days, 8.2 percentage points after eleven to fifteen days, and 9.1 percentage points after sixteen to twenty days. Holding the amount of voluntary social distancing constant, these results imply that there would have been ten times greater spread of COVID-19 by April 27 without shelter-in-place orders (ten million cases) and more than thirty-five times greater spread without any of the four measures (thirty-five million cases). Our article illustrates the potential danger of exponential spread in the absence of interventions, providing information relevant to strategies for restarting economic activity.

positive: Adolescent psychiatric disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown The aim of this paper was to review the literature on adolescent psychiatric disorders related to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown. Stressful life events, extended home confinement, brutal grief, intrafamilial violence, overuse of the Internet and social media are factors that could influence the mental health of adolescents during this period. The COVID-19 pandemic could result in increased psychiatric disorders such as Post-Traumatic Stress, Depressive, and Anxiety Disorders, as well as grief-related symptoms. Adolescents with psychiatric disorders are at risk of a break or change in their care and management; they may experience increased symptoms. The COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown may have a negative impact on the mental health of adolescents, although there is still no data on the long term impact of this crisis. Adolescents’ individual, familial, and social vulnerability, as well as individual and familial coping abilities, are factors related to adolescent mental health in times of crisis. Adolescents are often vulnerable and require careful consideration by caregivers and healthcare system adaptations to allow for mental health support despite the lockdown. Research on adolescent psychiatric disorders in times of pandemics is necessary, as such a global situation could be prolonged or repeated.

positive: Disrupted classes, undisrupted learning during COVID-19 outbreak in China: application of open educational practices and resources With the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, the Chinese government decided to ban any type of face-to-face teaching, disrupting classes and resulting in over 270 million students being unable to return to their universities/schools. Therefore, the Ministry of Education (MoE) launched an initiative titled ‘Ensuring learning undisrupted when classes are disrupted’ by reforming the entire educational system and including an online education component. However, this quick reform in this unexpected critical situation of widespread COVID-19 cases harbours several challenges, such as the lack of time and teacher/student isolation. This paper discusses the possibility of using open educational resources (OER) and open educational practices (OEP) as an effective educational solution to overcome these challenges. Particularly, this study presents a generic OEP framework built on existing open-practice definitions. It then presents, based on this framework and based on the challenges reported by several Chinese education specialists during two national online seminars, a set of guidelines for the effective use of OER and OEP for both teaching and learning. Finally, this study presents some recommendations for the better adoption of OER and OEP in the future. The findings of this study can help researchers and educators apply OER and OEP for better learning experiences and outcomes during the COVID-19 outbreak.

positive: Reopening Colleges and Universities During the COVID-19 Pandemic In their article, Cheng and colleagues present the plan for reopening colleges and universities in Taiwan. There are important differences between Taiwan and other countries, but residential colleges and universities present similar challenges to pandemic control for all. Considering how well Taiwan has managed COVID-19 overall, the editorialists believe that the plan for safely reopening colleges and universities in Taiwan offers important principles.

positive: What are the Underlying Transmission Patterns of COVID-19 Outbreak? – An Age-specific Social Contact Characterization Abstract Background COVID-19 has spread to 6 continents. Now is opportune to gain a deeper understanding of what may have happened. The findings can help inform mitigation strategies in the disease-affected countries. Methods In this work, we examine an essential factor that characterizes the disease transmission patterns: the interactions among people. We develop a computational model to reveal the interactions in terms of the social contact patterns among the population of different age-groups. We divide a city's population into seven age-groups: 0-6 years old (children); 7-14 (primary and junior high school students); 15-17 (high school students); 18-22 (university students); 23-44 (young/middle-aged people); 45-64 years old (middle-aged/elderly people); and 65 or above (elderly people). We consider four representative settings of social contacts that may cause the disease spread: (1) individual households; (2) schools, including primary/high schools as well as colleges and universities; (3) various physical workplaces; and (4) public places and communities where people can gather, such as stadiums, markets, squares, and organized tours. A contact matrix is computed to describe the contact intensity between different age-groups for each of the four settings. By integrating the four contact matrices with the next-generation matrix, we quantitatively characterize the underlying transmission patterns of COVID-19 among different populations. Findings We focus our study on 6 representative cities in China: Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID-19, together with Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Shenzhen, which are five major cities from three key economic zones. The results show that the social contact-based analysis can readily explain the underlying disease transmission patterns as well as the associated risks (including both confirmed and unconfirmed cases). In Wuhan, the age-groups involving relatively intensive contacts in households and public/communities are dispersedly distributed. This can explain why the transmission of COVID-19 in the early stage mainly took place in public places and families in Wuhan. We estimate that Feb. 11, 2020 was the date with the highest transmission risk in Wuhan, which is consistent with the actual peak period of the reported case number (Feb. 4-14). Moreover, the surge in the number of new cases reported on Feb. 12-13 in Wuhan can readily be captured using our model, showing its ability in forecasting the potential/unconfirmed cases. We further estimate the disease transmission risks associated with different work resumption plans in these cities after the outbreak. The estimation results are consistent with the actual situations in the cities with relatively lenient control policies, such as Beijing, and those with strict control policies, such as Shenzhen. Interpretation With an in-depth characterization of age-specific social contact-based transmission, the retrospective and prospective situations of the disease outbreak, including the past and future transmission risks, the effectiveness of different interventions, and the disease transmission risks of restoring normal social activities, are computationally analyzed and reasonably explained. The conclusions drawn from the study not only provide a comprehensive explanation of the underlying COVID-19 transmission patterns in China, but more importantly, offer the social contact-based risk analysis methods that can readily be applied to guide intervention planning and operational responses in other countries, so that the impact of COVID-19 pandemic can be strategically mitigated. Funding General Research Fund of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council; Key Project Grants of the National Science Foundation of China.

positive: Effects of school closure on incidence of pandemic influenza in Alberta, Canada. BACKGROUND Control of pandemic influenza by social-distancing measures, such as school closures, is a controversial aspect of pandemic planning. However, investigations of the extent to which these measures actually affect the progression of a pandemic have been limited. OBJECTIVE To examine correlations between the incidence of pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza in Alberta, Canada, in 2009 and school closures or weather changes, and to estimate the effects of school closures and weather changes on pH1N1 transmission. DESIGN Mathematical transmission models were fit to data that compared the pattern of confirmed pH1N1 cases with the school calendar and weather patterns. SETTING Alberta, Canada, from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. DATA SOURCES 2009 virologic test results, 2006 census data, 2009 daily temperature and humidity data, and 2009 school calendars. MEASUREMENTS Age-specific daily counts of positive results for pH1N1 from the complete database of 35 510 specimens submitted to the Alberta Provincial Laboratory for Public Health for virologic testing from 19 April 2009 to 2 January 2010. RESULTS The ending and restarting of school terms had a major effect in attenuating the first wave and starting the second wave of pandemic influenza cases. Mathematical models suggested that school closure reduced transmission among school-age children by more than 50% and that this was a key factor in interrupting transmission. The models also indicated that seasonal changes in weather had a significant effect on the temporal pattern of the epidemic. LIMITATIONS Data probably represent a small sample of all viral infections. The mathematical models make simplifying assumptions in order to make simulations and analysis feasible. CONCLUSION Analysis of data from unrestricted virologic testing during an influenza pandemic provides compelling evidence that closing schools can have dramatic effects on transmission of pandemic influenza. School closure seems to be an effective strategy for slowing the spread of pandemic influenza in countries with social contact networks similar to those in Canada. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, and Public Health Agency of Canada.

positive: The Impact of COVID-19 on Medical Education In the wake of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it is abundantly clear to all the necessity of studying the pathology and widespread health consequences associated with the virus. However, what is much less clear is the impact of COVID-19 on medical education. Already, faculty and medical students are grappling with the changes that have been made and attempting to consolidate these with their plan of career development. Changes that may seem relatively minor in comparison to the global pandemic have the potential to be drastic turning points in the career progression of many. As not much is known regarding the long-lasting impact of COVID-19 on medical education, it is therefore also necessary to record and study the full impact of the changes being made. The path to entering a successful residency has been predictable for the last few years - do well on Step 1, give conference presentations, go the extra mile in clerkships and shadowing opportunities, and have meaningful non-academic extracurricular activities - all of which designed to best demonstrate a student's knowledge, persistence, collaborative spirit, and dedication to medicine. This trajectory has been changed with COVID-19 disrupting routines in hospitals, medical schools and beyond. The replacement of in-person classes with online equivalents is an obvious necessity at this time but creates a loss of collaborative experiences that has the potential to be a significant detriment to education. Likewise, the cancellation of clerkships, which are necessary for both skill acquisition as well as for relationship building, is a serious issue which students and medical schools must now resolve. Many medical students have also lost the opportunity for personal development through conference presentations. These presentations play a large role in distinguishing applicants during the residency application process, and therefore these lost opportunities have the potential to be a serious detriment to medical students’ career trajectory. While implementing technology to help resolve these issues is a unique way to help students to develop these skills, it is now necessary for medical students to demonstrate the same set of skills which they would have previously in a completely new and innovative manner. Persistence and adaptability during this time of challenge are attributes that medical students can demonstrate more readily. While every student has a personal story of how COVID-19 has impacted their education, there is no question that the impacts of COVID-19 will be felt on an extensive level. The panic in the community is palpable, and many are confused by how to proceed in the wake of COVID-19. This is no different for medical students and faculty and the questions that arise regarding medical education and their future careers.

positive: A model for COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut To support public health policymakers in Connecticut as they begin phased lifting of social distancing restrictions, we developed a county-structured compartmental SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and COVID-19 disease progression. We calibrated this model to the local dynamics of deaths and hospitalizations and the exact timing of state interventions, including school closures and stay-at-home order. In this technical report, we describe the details of the model design, implementation and calibration, and show projections of epidemic development through the Summer of 2020 under different assumptions about the increase in contact rates following partial state reopening. Our model results are consistent with high effectiveness of state lockdown measures, but changes in human interaction patterns during the coming months are unknown. In addition, a lot of uncertainty remains with respect to several key epidemiological parameters and the effectiveness of increased testing and contact tracing capacity. As more information becomes available, we will update the projections presented in this report.

positive: No evidence of secondary transmission of COVID-19 from children attending school in Ireland, 2020 As many countries begin to lift some of the restrictions to contain COVID-19 spread, lack of evidence of transmission in the school setting remains. We examined Irish notifications of SARS-CoV2 in the school setting before school closures on 12 March 2020 and identified no paediatric transmission. This adds to current evidence that children do not appear to be drivers of transmission, and we argue that reopening schools should be considered safe accompanied by certain measures.

positive: COVID-19-Related School Closings and Risk of Weight Gain Among Children

positive: Effect of a one-month lockdown on the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 in France The COVID-19 epidemic started in the Hubei province in China in December 2019 and then spread around the world reaching the pandemic stage at the beginning of March 2020. Since then, several countries went into lockdown. We estimate the effect of the lockdown in France on the contact rate and the effective reproduction number Re of the COVID-19. We obtain a reduction by a factor 7 (Re=0.47, 95%-CI: 0.45-0.50), compared to the estimates carried out in France at the early stage of the epidemic. We also estimate the fraction of the population that would be infected by the beginning of May, at the official date at which the lockdown should be relaxed. We find a fraction of 3.7% (95%-CI: 3.0-4.8%) of the total French population, without taking into account the number of recovered individuals before April 1st, which is not known. This proportion is seemingly too low to reach herd immunity. Thus, even if the lockdown strongly mitigated the first epidemic wave, keeping a low value of Re is crucial to avoid an uncontrolled second wave (initiated with much more infectious cases than the first wave) and to hence avoid the saturation of hospital facilities. Our approach is based on the mechanistic-statistical formalism, which uses a probabilistic model to connect the data collection process and the latent epidemiological process, which is described by a SIR-type differential equation model.

positive: Measure what matters: Counts of hospitalized patients are a better metric for health system capacity planning for a reopening OBJECTIVE: Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate forecasting of health system capacity requirements using readily available inputs. We examined whether testing and hospitalization data could help quantify the anticipated burden on the health system given shelter-in-place (SIP) order. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 16,103 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tests were performed on 15,807 patients at Stanford facilities between March 2 and April 11, 2020. We analyzed the fraction of tested patients that were confirmed positive for COVID-19, the fraction of those needing hospitalization, and the fraction requiring ICU admission over the 40 days between March 2nd and April 11th 2020. RESULTS: We find a marked slowdown in the hospitalization rate within ten days of SIP even as cases continued to rise. We also find a shift towards younger patients in the age distribution of those testing positive for COVID-19 over the four weeks of SIP. The impact of this shift is a divergence between increasing positive case confirmations and slowing new hospitalizations, both of which affects the demand on health systems. CONCLUSION: Without using local hospitalization rates and the age distribution of positive patients, current models are likely to overestimate the resource burden of COVID-19. It is imperative that health systems start using these data to quantify effects of SIP and aid reopening planning.

positive: The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment Objectives To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. Design A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. Setting The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). Main outcome measures The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. Results The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product (£8.4bn to £16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% (£55.5bn to £72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product (£2.2bn to £38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% (£5.0bn to £72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Conclusion Balancing school closure against “business as usual” and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.

positive: Rethinking the role of the school after COVID-19

positive: Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population mobility patterns across 135 countries. We remove concurrent policy bias by taking into account the contemporaneous presence of multiple interventions. The main result of the paper is that cancelling public events and imposing restrictions on private gatherings followed by school closures have quantitatively the most pronounced effects on reducing the daily incidence of COVID-19. They are followed by workplace as well as stay-at-home requirements, whose statistical significance and levels of effect are not as pronounced. Instead, we find no effects for international travel controls, public transport closures and restrictions on movements across cities and regions. We establish that these findings are mediated by their effect on population mobility patterns in a manner consistent with time-use and epidemiological factors.

positive: Risks to Children under-five in India from COVID-19 Objective: The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has rapidly emerged to become a global pandemic and is known to cause a high risk to patients over the age of 70 and those with co-morbidities, such as hypertension and diabetes. Though children are at comparatively lower risk compared to adults, the Indian population has a large young demographic that is likely to be at higher risk due to exposure to pollution, malnutrition and poor access to medical care. We aimed to quantify the potential impact of COVID-19 on Indias child population. Methods: We combined district family household survey data with data from the COVID-19 outbreak in China to analyze the potential impact of COVID-19 on children under the age of 5, under three different scenarios; each of which assumed the prevalence of infection to be 0.5%, 1%, or 5%. Results: We find that in the lowest prevalence scenario, across the most populous 18 Indian states, asymptomatic, non-hospitalized symptomatic and hospitalized symptomatic cases could reach 87,200, 412,900 and 31,900, respectively. In a moderate prevalence scenario, these figures reach 174,500, 825,800, and 63,800, and in the worst case, high prevalence scenario these cases could climb as high as 872,200, 4,128,900 and 319,700. Conclusion: These estimates show COVID-19 has the potential to pose a substantial threat to Indias large population of children, particularly those suffering from malnutrition and exposure to indoor air pollution, who may have limited access to health services.

positive: Physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019: natural experiment in 149 countries OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between physical distancing interventions and incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) globally. DESIGN: Natural experiment using interrupted time series analysis, with results synthesised using meta-analysis. SETTING: 149 countries or regions, with data on daily reported cases of covid-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and data on the physical distancing policies from the Oxford covid-19 Government Response Tracker. PARTICIPANTS: Individual countries or regions that implemented one of the five physical distancing interventions (closures of schools, workplaces, and public transport, restrictions on mass gatherings and public events, and restrictions on movement (lockdowns)) between 1 January and 30 May 2020. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of covid-19 before and after implementation of physical distancing interventions, estimated using data to 30 May 2020 or 30 days post-intervention, whichever occurred first. IRRs were synthesised across countries using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: On average, implementation of any physical distancing intervention was associated with an overall reduction in covid-19 incidence of 13% (IRR 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.89; n=149 countries). Closure of public transport was not associated with any additional reduction in covid-19 incidence when the other four physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR with and without public transport closure was 0.85, 0.82 to 0.88; n=72, and 0.87, 0.84 to 0.91; n=32, respectively). Data from 11 countries also suggested similar overall effectiveness (pooled IRR 0.85, 0.81 to 0.89) when school closures, workplace closures, and restrictions on mass gatherings were in place. In terms of sequence of interventions, earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in covid-19 incidence (pooled IRR 0.86, 0.84 to 0.89; n=105) compared with a delayed implementation of lockdown after other physical distancing interventions were in place (pooled IRR 0.90, 0.87 to 0.94; n=41). CONCLUSIONS: Physical distancing interventions were associated with reductions in the incidence of covid-19 globally. No evidence was found of an additional effect of public transport closure when the other four physical distancing measures were in place. Earlier implementation of lockdown was associated with a larger reduction in the incidence of covid-19. These findings might support policy decisions as countries prepare to impose or lift physical distancing measures in current or future epidemic waves.

positive: Estimating the Effect of Social Distancing Interventions on COVID-19 in the United States Since its global emergence in 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused multiple epidemics in the United States. Because medical treatments for the virus are still emerging and a vaccine is not yet available, state and local governments have sought to limit its spread by enacting various social distancing interventions such as school closures and lockdown, but the effectiveness of these interventions is unknown. We applied an established, semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model of these interventions on SARS-CoV-2 spread in Europe to the United States. We estimated the effect of interventions across all states, contrasted the estimated reproduction number, Rt , for each state before and after lockdown, and contrasted predicted future fatalities with actual fatalities as a check on the model's validity. Overall, school closures and lockdown are the only interventions modeled that have a reliable impact on Rt , and lockdown appears to have played a key role in reducing Rt below 1.0. We conclude that reversal of lockdown, without implementation of additional, equally effective interventions, will enable continued, sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States.

positive: School and pre-school children with type 1 diabetes during covid-19 quarantine: the synergic effect of parental care and technology INTRODUCTION: Management of Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) poses numerous challenges, especially for young children and their families. Parental care positively influencesthe outcomesofchildren with T1D, while there are often criticisms in school environment. The COVID-19 pandemic has forced children and parents to spend many hours at home and diabetes care has returned mainly in the hands of parents. AIM OF THE STUDY: To evaluate the effectiveness of exclusive return to parental care in pre-school and school children with T1D treated with Tandem Basal IQ system during the COVID-19 pandemic. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 22 children (M:F = 14:8) with T1D have been evaluated. We compared insulin and CGM data (TIR, TBR and TAR) of two periods: PRE-COV and IN-COV, in which children have transitioned from normal school attendance to the exclusive care of their parents. RESULTS: During the IN-COV period a significantly (p < 0.001) higher median value of TIR (66,41%) was observed as compared to PRE-COV period (61,45%). Patients also showed a statistically significant difference (p < 0.002) between the IN-COV period and the PRE-COV period as concerning the TAR metric: respectively 29,86 ± 10,6 % vs 34,73 ± 12,8 %. The difference between the bolus insulin doses was statistically significant (PRE-COV 5,3 IU/day, IN-COV 7,9 IU/day - p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Our observational real-life study confirms the positive effect of parental care in T1D very young children and demonstrates that during the COVID-19 pandemic it was possible to obtain a good glycometabolic compensation despite the significant change in lifestyle.

positive: COVID-19 and Schools Closure: Implications for School Nurses

positive: Trust, threats, and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in Norway and Sweden: A comparative survey Objectives: Norway and Sweden, two neighboring countries with similar populations, health care systems and socioeconomics, have reacted differently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Norway closed all kindergartens, schools and universities, and banned sports and cultural activities, while Sweden kept most institutions and trainings facilities open. We aimed to compare peoples' attitudes towards authorities and control measures, and effects on life in Norway and Sweden. Design: Anonymous web-based surveys for individuals age 15 or older distributed through Facebook using the snowball method. Setting: Norway and Sweden, mid-March to mid-April, 2020. Participants: Altogether, 3,508 individuals participated in the survey; 3000 in Norway and 508 in Sweden. 79% of the participants were women, 60% of the Norwegians and 47% of the Swedes were between 30-49 years, and around 45% of the participants in both countries had more than 4 years of higher education. Outcome measures: Perceived threat of the pandemic, views on infection control measures, and impact on daily life. We performed descriptive analyses of the responses and compared the two countries. Results: People had high trust in the health services in both countries, but differed in the degree of trust in their government (17% had high trust in Norway and 37% in Sweden). More Norwegians than Swedes agreed that school closure was a good measure (66% Norway and 18% in Sweden), and that countries with open schools were irresponsible (65% in Norway and 23% in Sweden). About the same amount responded that COVID-19 was a large to very large threat to the population (53% in Norway and 58% in Sweden), whereas more Norwegians than Swedes responded that the threat from repercussions of the mitigation measures were large or very large (71% in Norway and 56% in Sweden). Compliance with infection preventive measures was high and similar in the two countries (more than 98%). In Norway, 69% lived a more sedentary life during the pandemic versus 50% in Sweden; and Norwegians reported they ate more than Swedes (44% in Norway and 33% in Sweden). Conclusion: Sweden, with less restrictive measures against the COVID-19 pandemic, had a higher level of trust in the authorities, while Norwegians reported a more negative lifestyle during the pandemic. The level of trust in the health care system and self-reported compliance with preventive measures was high in both countries.

positive: Medical students' preference for returning to the clinical setting during the COVID-19 pandemic OBJECTIVES: The Covid-19 pandemic has led to widespread disruptions in the clinical education of medical students. In managing students' return to the clinical setting, medical schools face the challenge of balancing education, service, and risk considerations. To compound this challenge, medical students may prefer not to re-enter during a period of great uncertainty, leading to substantive downstream sequelae on individual, institutional, and national levels. Understanding students' views on resuming clinical experiences, therefore, is an important consideration. The purpose of this study was to assess medical students' preference for re-entering the clinical setting during a pandemic, and to explore personal and environmental characteristics associated with that preference. METHODS: We conducted an electronic survey of currently enrolled medical students of Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore, less than a month into the pandemic. Survey items were aligned with a conceptual framework related to medical students' preference for returning to the clinical setting. The framework consisted of three domains: 1) non-modifiable demographic information, 2) factors thought to be modifiable through the course of medical education, including burnout, tolerance for ambiguity, motivation, and professionalism, and 3) students' perception of Covid-19 infection risk to self. RESULTS: Approximately one third of 179 students preferred not to return to the clinical setting. Results of a multivariable analysis indicated that compared to this group, the two-thirds of students favouring return showed evidence of greater autonomous (or internal) motivation, a greater sense of professional responsibility, and a lower self-perception of harbouring risk to patients. CONCLUSIONS: Students' preference regarding return to the clinical environment stems from the interplay of several key factors, and is substantively associated with perceptions of professional responsibility and their own potential risk to the healthcare system. Mindfully considering and addressing these issues may help medical schools in their preparation for returning students to the clinical setting.

positive: COVID-19, school closures, and child poverty: a social crisis in the making

positive: Letter to the editor: Evidence on school closure and children’s social contact: useful for coronavirus disease (COVID-19)?

positive: Flexible employment relationships and careers in times of the COVID-19 pandemic Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic represents a crisis that affects several aspects of people's lives around the globe. Most of the affected countries took several measures, like lockdowns, business shutdowns, hygiene regulations, social distancing, school and university closings, or mobility tracking as a means of slowing down the distribution of COVID-19. These measures are expected to show short-term and long-term effects on people's working lives. However, most media reports focused on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in work arrangements (e.g., short-time work, flexible location and hours) for workers in a regular employment relationship. We here focus on workers in flexible employment relationships (e.g. temporary agency work and other forms of subcontracted labor, as well as new forms of working, such as in the gig economy). Specifically, we will discuss (a) how the work and careers of individuals in flexible employment relationships might get affected by the COVID-19 pandemic; (b) outline ideas how to examine period effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the work and careers of those individuals, and (c) outline how the pandemic can contribute to the ramification of flexible employment relationships.

positive: Purpose by design or disaster: Preserving a sense of purpose amid environmental uncertainty Abstract Psychological research suggests a sense of purpose in life is a coveted asset, with well-established linkages to well-being and healthy functioning. But how do individuals preserve this sense when previously reliable settings – and the opportunities they afford – are profoundly disrupted? The current moment provides a formidable test of this question, as widespread transmission of Covid-19 and intense efforts to slow it drastically transform our environment. Here, we consider how the experience of purpose may be impacted by disruptions in three key person-environment interactions: how we engage with work, how we engage in education, and how we manage physical proximity. We hope to motivate critical thinking about how this pandemic, and our collective responses to it, influence the experience of purpose and delineate a research agenda that may inform how individuals’ can preserve a sense of engagement and contribution.

positive: Impact of COVID -19 on children: special focus on the psychosocial aspect Although medical literature shows that children are minimally susceptible to 2019-Corona virus disease (COVID-19), they are hit the hardest by psychosocial impact of this pandemic. Being quarantined in homes and institutions may impose greater psychological burden than the physical sufferings caused by the virus. School closure, lack of outdoor activity, aberrant dietary and sleeping habits are likely to disrupt children's usual lifestyle and can potentially promote monotony, distress, impatience, annoyance and varied neuropsychiatric manifestations. Incidences of domestic violence, child abuse, adulterated online contents are on the rise. Children of single parent and frontline workers suffer unique problems. The children from marginalized communities are particularly susceptible to the infection and may suffer from extended ill-consequences of this pandemic, such as child labor, child trafficking, child marriage, sexual exploitation and death etc. Parents, pediatricians, psychologists, social workers, hospital authorities, government and non-governmental organizations have important roles to play to mitigate the psychosocial ill-effects of COVID-19 on children and adolescents. To provide the basic amenities, social security, medical care, and to minimize the educational inequities among the children of the different strata of the society are foremost priorities.

positive: Avoiding student infection during a Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak: a single medical school experience PURPOSE: In outbreaks of infectious disease, medical students are easily overlooked in the management of healthcare personnel protection although they serve in clinical clerkships in hospitals. In the early summer of 2015, Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) struck South Korea, and students of Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine (SKKUSOM) were at risk of contracting the disease. The purpose of this report is to share SKKUSOM’s experience against the MERS outbreak and provide suggestions for medical schools to consider in the face of similar challenges. METHODS: Through a process of reflection-on-action, we examined SKKUSOM’s efforts to avoid student infection during the MERS outbreak and derived a few practical guidelines that medical schools can adopt to ensure student safety in outbreaks of infectious disease. RESULTS: The school leadership conducted ongoing risk assessment and developed contingency plans to balance student safety and continuity in medical education. They rearranged the clerkships to another hospital and offered distant lectures and tutorials. Five suggestions are extracted for medical schools to consider in infection outbreaks: instant cessation of clinical clerkships; rational decision making on a school closure; use of information technology; constant communication with hospitals; and open communication with faculty, staff, and students. CONCLUSION: Medical schools need to take the initiative and actively seek countermeasures against student infection. It is essential that medical schools keep constant communication with their index hospitals and the involved personnel. In order to assure student learning, medical schools may consider offering distant education with online technology.

positive: Dataset of Vietnamese student's learning habits during COVID-19 Abstract A dataset was constructed to examine Vietnamese student's learning habits during the time schools were suspended due to the novel coronavirus - SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), in response to a call for interdisciplinary research on the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Elsevier, 2020). The questionnaires were spread over a network of educational communities on Facebook from February 7 to February 28, 2020. Using the snowball sampling method, researchers delivered the survey to teachers and parents to provide formal consent before they forwarded it to their students and children. In order to measure the influence of students’ socioeconomic status and occupational aspirations on their learning habits during school closures, the survey included three major groups of questions: (1) Individual demographics, including family socioeconomic status, school type, and occupational aspirations; (2) Student's learning habits, including hours of learning before and during the period of school suspension, with and without other people's support; and (3) Students’ perceptions of their self-learning during the school closures. There was a total of 920 clicks on the survey link, but only 460 responses accompanied by consent forms were received. Non-credible answers (e.g., year of birth after 2009, more than 20 hours of learning per day) were eliminated. The final dataset included 420 valid observations.

positive: Geospatially Referenced Demographic Agent-Based Modeling of SARS-CoV-2-Infection (COVID-19) Dynamics and Mitigation Effects in a Real-world Community Re-opening societies and economies across the globe following the initial wave of the severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic requires scientifically-guided decision processes and policy development. Public health authorities now consider it highly likely that transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 will follow a pattern of seasonal circulation globally. To guide mitigation strategies and tactics in a location-specific manner, accurate simulation of prolonged or intermittent patterns of social/physical distancing is required in order to prevent healthcare systems and communities from collapsing. It is equally important to capture the stochastic appearance of individual transmission events. Traditional epidemiological/statistical models cannot make predictions in a geospatial temporal manner based on human individuals in a community. Thus, the challenge is to conduct spatio-temporal simulations of transmission chains with real-world geospatial and georeferenced information of the dynamics of the disease and the effect of different mitigation strategies such as isolation of infected individuals or location closures. Here, we present a stochastic, geospatially referenced and demography-specific agent-based model with agents representing human beings and include information on age, household composition, daily occupation and schedule, risk factors, and other relevant properties. Physical encounters between humans are modeled in a time-dependent georeferenced network of the population. The model (GERDA-1) can predict infection dynamics under normal conditions and test the effect of different mitigation scenarios such as school closures, reduced social contacts as well as closure or reopening of public/work spaces. Specifically, it also includes the fate and influence of health care workers and their access to protective gear. Key predictions so far entail: (i) the effect of specific groups on the spreading, specifically that children in school contribute substantially to distribution. (ii) the result of reopening society depends crucially on how strict the measures have been during lock-down. (iii) the outcome of reopening is a stochastic process - in the majority of cases, we must expect a second wave, in some cases not. To the best of our best knowledge, the GERDA-1 model is the first model able to predict a bimodal behavior of SARS-Cov-2 infection dynamics. Given the criticality of the global situation, informing the scientific community, decision makers and the general public seems prudent. Therefore, we here provide a pre-print of the GERDA-1 model together with a first set of predictions and analyses as work in progress.

positive: Covid-19: Delaying school reopening by two weeks would halve risks to children, says iSAGE.

positive: Threats and opportunities in remote learning of mathematics: implication for the return to the classroom Australian schools, like schools elsewhere, have been through a period of closure. The closure creates both threats and opportunities for teachers and students. In the context of a project exploring approaches to teaching in early years, we outline some considerations and offer advice to teachers and educators on strategies for welcoming students back to school.

positive: COVID‐19 related home confinement in adults: weight gain risks and opportunities As the global COVID‐19 pandemic unfolds, over 90% of U.S. adult residents are confined to their homes, with restaurants, shops, schools, and workplaces shut down to prevent disease spread. While it is a priority to mitigate the immediate impact, one area of great concern is the long‐term effects of this pandemic on weight management in adults. As evident from previous research, small changes in body weight in relatively short time periods can become permanent and lead to substantial weight gain over time(1). Considering that the current situation could last a total of several months, this extended home confinement could exacerbate the problem of obesity in adults by substantially contributing to or exceeding annual weight gain.

positive: Should Institutions Disclose the Names of Employees with Covid-19? Prestigious University is a large, private educational institution with a medical school, a university hospital, a law school, and graduate and undergraduate colleges all on a single campus. In the face of the Covid-19 pandemic, students were told during spring break to return to campus only briefly to retrieve their belongings. Classes then went online. On March 23, 2020, the faculty, students, and staff were emailed the following by the university's director of infection control and public health: We have become aware that a Prestigious University staff member has tested positive for the virus that causes Covid-19. The individual, who was last on campus on March 16, is now in isolation at their permanent residence and is doing well clinically. The university has already identified those members of our community who may have been in close contact with this individual, and we are working to notify them. Further, this individual's local health department has a protocol for identifying people who have been in direct contact with anyone testing positive for Covid-19 (such as this Prestigious University staff member) so that they can self-quarantine and watch for COVID-19 symptoms for a period of 14 days from their last contact with the infected individual. A professor in the Philosophy Department has asked the ethicists at the medical school whether such contact tracing suffices. "Don't the members of the community deserve to know who this is? Isn't there a mandate to identify this person in order to maximize public health benefits and slow the spread of this deadly virus?"

positive: Managing psychological distress in children and adolescents following the COVID-19 epidemic: A cooperative approach Children and adolescents are susceptible to the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and tend to show posttraumatic distress. Immediately after an epidemic, governments and social organizations often provide psychological services for children and adolescents to relieve their distress. However, many adolescents report distress even long after a traumatic event because of the unaddressed traumatic atmosphere in schools or families. To advance this issue, this article proposes a cooperative model of psychological services provision for children and adolescents in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. This model suggests that psychological services should simultaneously include social, school, and family systems, which interact and have a synergistic effect. The social system provides direct services not only for children and adolescents but also for their school and family systems; school and family systems cooperate to support adolescents. Psychological work also needs to emphasize the key elements of school and family systems. Attention should be given to teachers' distress, teacher-student relationships, and peer relationships in the school system, as well as to parents' distress, parent-child relationships, and the marital relationship in the family system. In these ways, adolescents can achieve an efficient and sustainable recovery following a disaster. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

positive: Can indoor sports centers be allowed to re-open during the COVID-19 pandemic based on a certificate of equivalence? Within a time span of only a few months, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has managed to spread across the world. This virus can spread by close contact, which includes large droplet spray and inhalation of microscopic droplets, and by indirect contact via contaminated objects. While in most countries, supermarkets have remained open, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, authorities have ordered many other shops, restaurants, bars, music theaters and indoor sports centers to be closed. As part of COVID-19 (semi)lock-down exit strategies, many government authorities are now (May 2020) allowing a gradual re-opening, where sometimes indoor sport centers are last in line to be permitted to re-open. This technical note discusses the challenges in re-opening these facilities and the measures already suggested by some to tackle these challenges. It also elaborates three potential additional measures and based on these additional measures, it suggests the concept of a certificate of equivalence that could allow indoor sports centers with such a certificate to re-open more rapidly. It also attempts to stimulate increased preparedness of indoor sports centers for potential next waves of SARS-CoV-2 as well as future pandemics. It is concluded that fighting situations such as the COVID-19 pandemic and limiting economic damage requires increased collaboration and research by virologists, epidemiologists, microbiologists, aerosol scientists, building physicists, building services engineers and sports scientists.

positive: COVID 19: Designing and conducting an online mini-multiple interview (MMI) in a dynamic landscape. Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic presented numerous, significant challenges for medical schools, including how to select the best candidates from a pool of applicants when social distancing and other measures prevented "business as usual" admissions processes. However, selection into medical school is the gateway to medicine in many countries, and it is critical to use processes which are evidence-based, valid and reliable even under challenging circumstances. Our challenge was to plan and conduct a multiple-mini interview (MMI) in a dynamic and stringent safe distancing context.Methods: This paper reports a case study of how to plan, re-plan and conduct MMIs in an environment where substantially tighter safe distancing measures were introduced just before the MMI was due to be delivered.Results: We report on how to design and implement a fully remote, online MMI which ensured the safety of candidates and assessors.Discussion: We discuss the challenges of this approach and also reflect on broader issues associated with selection into medical school during a pandemic. The aim of the paper is to provide broadly generalizable guidance to other medical schools faced with the challenge of selecting future students under difficult conditions.

positive: Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID-19: a rapid review BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging disease that has been classified a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). To support WHO with their recommendations on quarantine, we conducted a rapid review on the effectiveness of quarantine during severe coronavirus outbreaks. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a rapid review to assess the effects of quarantine (alone or in combination with other measures) of individuals who had contact with confirmed cases of COVID-19, who travelled from countries with a declared outbreak, or who live in regions with high transmission of the disease. SEARCH METHODS: An information specialist searched PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, WHO Global Index Medicus, Embase, and CINAHL on 12 February 2020 and updated the search on 12 March 2020. WHO provided records from daily searches in Chinese databases up to 16 March 2020. SELECTION CRITERIA: Cohort studies, case-control-studies, case series, time series, interrupted time series, and mathematical modelling studies that assessed the effect of any type of quarantine to control COVID-19. We also included studies on SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) as indirect evidence for the current coronavirus outbreak. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently screened 30% of records; a single review author screened the remaining 70%. Two review authors screened all potentially relevant full-text publications independently. One review author extracted data and assessed evidence quality with GRADE and a second review author checked the assessment. We rated the certainty of evidence for the four primary outcomes: incidence, onward transmission, mortality, and resource use. MAIN RESULTS: We included 29 studies; 10 modelling studies on COVID-19, four observational studies and 15 modelling studies on SARS and MERS. Because of the diverse methods of measurement and analysis across the outcomes of interest, we could not conduct a meta-analysis and conducted a narrative synthesis. Due to the type of evidence found for this review, GRADE rates the certainty of the evidence as low to very low. Modeling studies consistently reported a benefit of the simulated quarantine measures, for example, quarantine of people exposed to confirmed or suspected cases averted 44% to 81% incident cases and 31% to 63% of deaths compared to no measures based on different scenarios (incident cases: 4 modelling studies on COVID-19, SARS; mortality: 2 modelling studies on COVID-19, SARS, low-certainty evidence). Very low-certainty evidence suggests that the earlier quarantine measures are implemented, the greater the cost savings (2 modelling studies on SARS). Very low-certainty evidence indicated that the effect of quarantine of travellers from a country with a declared outbreak on reducing incidence and deaths was small (2 modelling studies on SARS). When the models combined quarantine with other prevention and control measures, including school closures, travel restrictions and social distancing, the models demonstrated a larger effect on the reduction of new cases, transmissions and deaths than individual measures alone (incident cases: 4 modelling studies on COVID-19; onward transmission: 2 modelling studies on COVID-19; mortality: 2 modelling studies on COVID-19; low-certainty evidence). Studies on SARS and MERS were consistent with findings from the studies on COVID-19. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence for COVID-19 is limited to modelling studies that make parameter assumptions based on the current, fragmented knowledge. Findings consistently indicate that quarantine is important in reducing incidence and mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Early implementation of quarantine and combining quarantine with other public health measures is important to ensure effectiveness. In order to maintain the best possible balance of measures, decision makers must constantly monitor the outbreak situation and the impact of the measures implemented. Testing in representative samples in different settings could help assess the true prevalence of infection, and would reduce uncertainty of modelling assumptions. This review was commissioned by WHO and supported by Danube-University-Krems.

positive: Numerical Analysis of Disastrous Effect of Reopening Too Soon in Georgia, USA Social distancing restrictions were lifted in Georgia, USA before the daily new Covid-19 cases were significantly reduced below the peak. In this paper we show through numerical analysis the disastrous consequence of this action resulting in a second peak of daily cases which caused additional fatalities. Key words: Coronavirus, Covid-19, SARS, Basu model, analysis, data, infectious disease, Georgia, USA, reopening, resurgence

positive: Prevalence of and factors associated with mental health problems and suicidality among senior high school students in rural China during the COVID-19 outbreak

positive: Covid-19: Papers justifying government's plans to reopen schools are "inconclusive," say union bosses.

positive: Academic Coaching of Medical Students During COVID-19 Social distancing measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic has required many medical schools to adapt existing on-site medical education activities to delivery via online platforms. The sudden switch to a new, unfamiliar model of learning led to additional challenges for students. We observed that students requiring academic support often had ineffective learning strategies, poor motivation, and suboptimal communication skills, all of which were magnified by home-based learning. We therefore established a virtual academic coaching programme to engage these students and to address specific challenges that arose from an adapted educational programme.

positive: Novel coronavirus 2019 transmission risk in educational settings Transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 in schools is unknown. Our investigations especially in pre-schools could not detect SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite screening of symptomatic and asymptomatic children. The data suggests that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools and could help inform exit strategies for lifting of lockdowns.

positive: Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID-19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data BACKGROUND. The pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies, however, carry a significant risk for mental health, which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality and is currently not included in modeling the impact of the pandemic. METHODS. We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure, applied to Switzerland as an example. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status, and social isolation, as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans. RESULTS. The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average of 9.79 YLL. CONCLUSIONS. The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.

positive: Debate: COVID-19 and psychological well-being of children and adolescents in Italy. Italy was the first country in Europe to deal with COVID-19. Measures taken by the government to contain the spread of the virus were based mainly on quarantine and social distancing, with dramatic economic, social and psychological consequences. Since March, Italian children and adolescents are facing school closures, which have caused a disruption in the daily lives of millions of young people and their families. To date, despite the slow reopening, the government has decided to maintain school closures for the entire academic year, leaving the future of young people in uncertainty. There is already some evidence that quarantine and social isolation are having negative impact on children's and adolescents' psychological well-being. Moreover, this situation will mainly affect those children and adolescents with pre-existing vulnerabilities and those suffering of mental disorders. It is imperative to keep young people's needs at the core of reconstruction plans, allowing them to return to school safely, and providing them with some strategies to heal and dealing with this stressful and potentially traumatic situation.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in blood in a large school community subject to a Covid-19 outbreak: a cross-sectional study BACKGROUND: A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak affecting 52 people from a large school community in Santiago, Chile was identified (March 12), nine days after the first country case. We assessed the magnitude of the outbreak and the role students and staff played using a self-administered antibody detection test and survey. METHODS: The school was closed on March 13, and the entire community was placed under quarantine. We implemented a home-delivery, self-administered, IgG/IgM antibody test and survey to a classroom stratified sample of students and all staff from May 4-19. We aimed to determine overall seroprevalence rates by age group, reported symptoms, contact exposure and to explore dynamics of transmission. RESULTS: Antibody positivity rates were 9.9% (95%CI: 8.2-11.8) for 1,009 students and 16.6% (95%CI: 12.1-21.9) for 235 staff. Among students, positivity was associated with younger age (P=0.01), lower grade level (P=0.05), prior RT-PCR positivity (P=0.03), and history of contact with a confirmed case (P<0.001). Among staff, positivity was higher in teachers (P=0.01) and in those previously RT-PCR positive (P<0.001). Excluding RT-PCR positive individuals, antibody positivity was associated with fever in adults and children (P=0.02; P=0.002), abdominal pain in children (P=0.001), and chest pain in adults (P=0.02). Within antibody positive individuals, 40% of students and 18% of staff reported no symptoms (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Teachers were more affected during the outbreak and younger children were at higher infection risk, likely because index case(s) were teachers and/or parents from preschool. Self-administered antibody testing, supervised remotely, proved to be a suitable and rapid tool. Our study provides useful information for school re-openings.

positive: Appréhender le COVID-19 au fil de l’eau en tant que psychiatre d’enfant et d’adolescent Résumé Le COVID-19 est une maladie multi-organes liée à une infection par le virus SARS-CoV2 qui est devenue une pandémie au début de l’année 2020. Difficile de décrire autrement qu’en témoignant à chaud ce que cette pandémie implique pour un psychiatre d’enfants. Je propose de parcourir les principales questions éthiques qui se sont posées; de décrire comment mon équipe hospitalière s’est réorganisée pour faire face aux nouvelles demandes et questionnements, en particulier en ouvrant une unité dédiée aux personnes avec autisme et comportements défis atteints par le COVID-19; et d’aborder, dans un contexte de discussion nationale, comment la discipline a cherché à comprendre les conditions d’un certain bien-être pendant le confinement. Enfin, j’essaierai de terminer par des réflexions plus spéculatives concernant le déconfinement. Abstract COVID-19 is a multi-organ disease due to an infection with the SARS-CoV2 virus. It has become a pandemic in early 2020. The disease appears less devastating in children and adolescents. However, stress, quarantine and eventually mourning have major impacts on development. It is difficult to describe what this pandemic implies for a child psychiatrist, other than by giving a first-hand account. I propose to go through the main ethical questions that have arisen; to describe how my hospital team has reorganized itself to meet the new demands and questions, in particular by opening a unit dedicated to people with autism and challenging behaviors affected by COVID-19; and to address, in a context of national discussion, how the discipline has sought to understand the conditions of a certain well-being during quarantine. Finally, I will try to conclude with more speculative reflections on re-opening.

positive: Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK. METHODS: We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The four base interventions modelled were school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years or older, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases. We also modelled the combination of these interventions, as well as a programme of intensive interventions with phased lockdown-type restrictions that substantially limited contacts outside of the home for repeated periods. We simulated different triggers for the introduction of interventions, and estimated the impact of varying adherence to interventions across counties. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (ie, admission to the intensive care units [ICU]) treatment, and deaths, and compared the effect of each intervention on the basic reproduction number, R(0). FINDINGS: We projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million (95% prediction interval 13–30) clinical cases and 350 000 deaths (170 000–480 000) due to COVID-19 in the UK by December, 2021. We found that the four base interventions were each likely to decrease R(0), but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity. The combined intervention was more effective at reducing R(0), but only lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R(0) near or below 1; the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120 000 cases (46 000–700 000) and 50 000 deaths (9300–160 000). Intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability. INTERPRETATION: The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are probably required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs. FUNDING: Medical Research Council.

positive: COVID-19 Outbreak Among College Students After a Spring Break Trip to Mexico — Austin, Texas, March 26–April 5, 2020 On March 27, 2020, a University of Texas at Austin student with cough, sore throat, and shortness of breath had a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). On March 28, two more symptomatic students had positive test results, alerting the COVID-19 Center at the University of Texas Health Austin (UTHA) to a potential outbreak; the center initiated an outbreak investigation the same day. UTHA conducted contact tracing, which linked the students' infections to a spring break trip to Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, during March 14-19. Among 231 persons tested for SARS-CoV-2 in this investigation, 64 (28%) had positive test results, including 60 (33%) of 183 Cabo San Lucas travelers, one of 13 (8%) household contacts of Cabo San Lucas travelers, and three (9%) of 35 community contacts of Cabo San Lucas travelers. Approximately one fifth of persons with positive test results were asymptomatic; no persons needed hospitalization, and none died. This COVID-19 outbreak among a young, healthy population with no or mild symptoms was controlled with a coordinated public health response that included rapid contact tracing and testing of all exposed persons. A coordinated response with contact tracing and testing of all contacts, including those who are asymptomatic, is important in controlling future COVID-19 outbreaks that might occur as schools and universities consider reopening.

positive: Sars, preschool routines and children’s behaviour: Observations from preschools in Hong Kong All schools in Hong Kong were closed in April 2003 to prevent the spread of SARS. This paper considers the influence of the SARS epidemic on children’s routines and behaviour when preschools re-opened, after a six-week closure. Observations were made in 20 kindergartens and principals of another 10 kindergartens completed questionnaires. The influence of SARS was evident in all preschools, be it through teachers and students wearing masks, notices on hand washing or the provision of alcohol dispensers for hand disinfection. The outbreak impacted noticeably upon children’s routines and social exchanges. In all schools, physical contact among children and sharing of food were not allowed. Children were also prohibited from talking to their peers when they had removed their masks. The SARS outbreak provided us a “natural experiment” to consider the influence of epidemics on preschools.

positive: SARS‐COV‐2 children transmission: the evidence is that today we do not have enough evidence I have read with interest the review by Ludvigsson on the role of children as transmitters of the new coronavirus (SARS‐COV‐2). An in‐depth review of the current literature focused on 40 published articles and 7 non‐peer reviewed papers(1). All the papers included have been done under lockdown conditions. As a consequence, we should not ignore a main bias of this review(1). The main conclusion we can draw now is that under confined conditions, children are not the main drivers of the COVID‐19 pandemic. And “Confined" is not a normal situation.

positive: Dataset of Vietnamese teachers’ perspectives and perceived support during the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented damage to the educational system worldwide. Besides the measurable economic impacts in the short-term and long-term, there is intangible destruction within educational institutions. In particular, teachers – the most critical intellectual resources of any schools – have to face various types of financial, physical, and mental struggles due to COVID-19. To capture the current context of more than one million Vietnamese teachers during COVID-19, we distributed an e-survey to more than 2,500 randomly selected teachers from two major teacher communities on Facebook from 6th to 11th April 2020. From over 373 responses, we excluded the observations which violated our cross-check questions and retained 294 observations for further analysis. This dataset includes: (i) Demographics of participants; (ii) Teachers' perspectives regarding the operation of teaching activities during the pandemic; (iii) Teachers' received support from their schools, government bodies, other stakeholders such as teacher unions, and parents' associations; and (iv) teachers' evaluation of school readiness toward digital transformation. Further, the dataset was supplemented with an additional question on the teachers' primary source of professional development activities during the pandemic.

positive: Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia We develop an agent-based model for a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to reproduce key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits, unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13--14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.

positive: Impact of Superspreaders on dissemination and mitigation of COVID-19 Background: The emerging SARS-CoV-2 virus has caused a global pandemic characterized by superspreader events. Heterogeneity in transmission risk is a known phenomenon in infectious diseases and was also seen in SARS and MERS outbreaks since 2003. The pandemic has led countries to control the pandemic spread using unprecedented severe mitigation strategies that include quarantine and lock-down. This has has been highly successful in terms of halting the spread, but had enormous socioeconomic cost. We set out to theoretically explore whether a model that includes the phenomenon of superspreaders may guide us towards a cost-effective mitigation strategy. Methods: We developed an agent-based model that includes persons that spread the disease far more readily than other persons. This allow us to investigate effect of containment strategies in both a random SEIR like scenario, and in a transmission model that work with structured society. Our model considered even contact patterns in three settings: home, work and a category of "other" settings representing diffuse social contacts. We introduced superspreaders either as a fixed proportion of the population, or as a broad spectrum of infectivity. For each choice, the model was then calibrated to an overall realistic daily growth rate of 23 percentage. As sensitivity analyses we varied the fraction of superspreaders as well the distribution of their infectivity. To compare the simulation findings for each mitigation scenario we considered the maximum daily ICU utility. Results: As expected, without mitigation imposed, the inclusion of superspreaders does not meaningfully change the epidemic trajectory. However when introducing mitigation strategies imposed on each of the three settings, we find that the presence of superspreaders made a substantial difference. The simulations demonstrate that the best strategy is to focus on limiting contacts in the other category. This in particular suggests that limiting diffuse social contacts in settings such as bars, transportation, restaurants, parties, concerts and lecture halls is far more effective than limiting the same amount of contact events in the home and work setting. Conclusions: To appreciate effect of heterogeneity in various social spheres we need to rethink disease transmission models. Doing so, we found that wide distribution of infectivity favours strategies that reduces the max, while leaving the typical behaviour undisturbed. We found that most workplaces may be opened without much influence on the epidemic, while one could snuff out transmission with an effective avoidance of other contacts. Interestingly, including a consideration of superspreaders can help explain the dramatic success of even moderate lock-down strategies as that practiced in Denmark and Sweden. And it points to the need to avoid mass gatherings until either flock immunity has been achieved or an effective vaccine is available.

positive: Benefit-risk analysis of health benefits of routine childhood immunisation against the excess risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the Covid-19 pandemic in Africa Background: National immunisation programmes globally are at risk of suspension due to the severe health system constraints and physical distancing measures in place to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim is to compare the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa against the risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infections through visiting routine vaccination service delivery points. Methods: We used two scenarios to approximate the child deaths that may be caused by immunisation coverage reductions during COVID-19 outbreaks. First, we used previously reported country-specific child mortality impact estimates of childhood immunisation for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, hepatitis B, Haemophilus influenzae type b, pneumococcal, rotavirus, measles, meningitis A, rubella, and yellow fever (DTP3, HepB3, Hib3, PCV3, RotaC, MCV1, MCV2, MenA, RCV, YFV) to approximate the future deaths averted before completing five years of age by routine childhood vaccination during a 6-month Covid-19 risk period without catch-up campaigns. Second, we analysed an alternative scenario that approximates the health benefits of sustaining routine childhood immunisation to only the child deaths averted from measles outbreaks during the Covid-19 risk period. The excess number of infections due to additional SARS-CoV-2 exposure during immunisation visits assumes that contact reducing interventions flatten the outbreak curve during the Covid-19 risk period, that 60% of the population will have been infected by the end of that period, that children can be infected by either vaccinators or during transport and that upon child infection the whole household would be infected. Country specific household age structure estimates and age dependent infection fatality rates are then applied to calculate the number of deaths attributable to the vaccination clinic visits. We present benefit-risk ratios for routine childhood immunisation alongside 95% uncertainty range estimates from probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Findings: For every one excess Covid-19 death attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infections acquired during routine vaccination clinic visits, there could be 143 (38 - 576) deaths in children prevented by sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa. The benefit-risk ratio for the vaccinated children, siblings, parents or adult care-givers, and older adults in the households of vaccinated children are 58,000 (3,200 - 21,350,000), 52,000 (2,800 - 18,884,000), 2,000 (393 - 12,000), and 157 (41 - 652) respectively. In the alternative scenario that approximates the health benefits to only the child deaths averted from measles outbreaks, the benefit-risk ratio to the households of vaccinated children is 5 (1 - 21) under these highly conservative assumptions and if the risk to only the vaccinated children is considered, the benefit-risk ratio is 2,000 (131 - 839,000). Interpretation: Our analysis suggests that the health benefits of deaths prevented by sustaining routine childhood immunisation in Africa far outweighs the excess risk of Covid-19 deaths associated with vaccination clinic visits. However, there are other factors that must be considered for strategic decision making to sustain routine childhood immunisation in African countries during the Covid-19 pandemic. These include logistical constraints of vaccine supply chain problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, reallocation of immunisation providers to other prioritised health services, healthcare staff shortages caused by SARS-CoV-2 infections among the staff, decreased demand for vaccination arising from community reluctance to visit vaccination clinics for fear of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infections, and infection risk to healthcare staff providing immunisation services as well as to their households and onward SARS-CoV-2 transmission into the wider community.

positive: Lockdown measures in response to COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: A rapid study of nine countries Lockdown measures have been introduced worldwide to contain the transmission of COVID-19. This paper defines the term lockdown and describes the design, timing and implementation of lockdown in nine countries in Sub Saharan Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. It also discusses the manner in which lockdown is enforced, the need to mitigate the harms of lockdown, and the association between lockdown and the reported number of COVID-19 cases and deaths. While there are some commonalities in the implementation of lockdown, a more notable finding is the variation in the design, timing and implementation of lockdown measures across the nine countries. We found that the number of reported cases is heavily dependent on the number of tests done, and that testing rates ranged from 9 to 21,261 per million population. The reported number of COVID-19 deaths per million population also varies, but is generally low when compared to countries in Europe and North America. While lockdown measures may have helped inhibit some community transmission, the pattern and nature of the epidemic remains unclear. Of concern are signs of lockdown harming health by affecting the functioning of the health system and causing social and economic harms. This paper highlights the need for inter-sectoral and trans-disciplinary research capable of providing a rigorous and holistic assessment of the harms and benefits of lockdown.

positive: La pandemia de la COVID-19 desde la SEAP./ [The Spanish Society of Pathologists on the COVID-19 pandemic]

positive: Moving Beyond a Peak Mentality: Plateaus, Shoulders, Oscillations and Other ‘Anomalous’ Behavior-Driven Shapes in COVID-19 Outbreaks The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 300,000 reported deaths globally, of which more than 83,000 have been reported in the United States as of May 16, 2020. Public health interventions have had significant impacts in reducing transmission and in averting even more deaths. Nonetheless, in many jurisdictions (both at national and local levels) the decline of cases and fatalities after apparent epidemic peaks has not been rapid. Instead, the asymmetric decline in cases appears, in some cases, to be consistent with plateau- or shoulder-like phenomena. Here we explore a model of fatality-driven awareness in which individual protective measures increase with death rates. In this model, epidemic dynamics can be characterized by plateaus, shoulders, and lag-driven oscillations after exponential rises at the outset of disease dynamics. We also show that incorporating long-term awareness can avoid peak resurgence and accelerate epidemic decline. We suggest that awareness of epidemic severity is likely to play a critical role in disease dynamics, beyond that imposed by intervention-driven policies.

positive: The Role of Medical Student Government in Responding to COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has sown clinical and administrative chaos at academic health centers throughout the country. As COVID-19-related burdens on the health care system and medical schools piled up, questions from medical students far outweighed the capacity of medical school administrators to respond in an adequate or timely manner, leaving students feeling confused and without clear guidance. In this Perspective, incoming and outgoing executive leaders of the University of Michigan Medical School Student Council and medical school deans outline the specific ways they were able to bridge the gap between medical students and administrators in a time of crisis. To illustrate the value of student government during uncertain times, the authors identify the most pressing problems faced by students at each phase of the curriculum—preclerkship, clerkship, and postclerkship—and explain how Student Council leadership partnered with administrators to find creative solutions to these problems and provide guidance to learners. They end by reflecting on the role of student government more broadly, identifying 3 guiding principles of student leadership and how these principles enable effective student representation.

positive: Models for managing the impact of an epidemic In this paper we consider robust models for emergency staff deployment in the event of a flu pandemic. We focus on managing critical staff levels at organizations that must remain operational during such an event, and develop methodologies for managing emergency resources with the goal of minimizing the impact of the pandemic. We present numerical experiments using realistic data to study the effectiveness of our approach. The underlying methodology is that of robust optimization; we model the problem as an infinite linear program which is approximately solved using a variant of Benders decomposition.

positive: The Effect of School Closure on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Transmission in Singapore: A Modeling Approach Singapore implements a school closure policy for institutional hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks, but there is a lack of empirical evidence on the effect of closure on HFMD transmission. We conducted a retrospective analysis of 197,207 cases of HFMD over the period 2003–2012 at the national level and of 57,502 cases in 10,080 institutional outbreaks over the period 2011–2016 in Singapore. The effects of school closure due to 1) institutional outbreaks, 2) public holidays, and 3) school vacations were assessed using a Bayesian time series modeling approach. School closure was associated with a reduction in HFMD transmission rate. During public holidays, average numbers of secondary cases having onset the week after dropped by 53% (95% credible interval 44–62%), and during school vacations, the number of secondary cases dropped by 7% (95% credible interval 3–10%). Schools being temporarily closed in response to an institutional outbreak reduced the average number of new cases by 1,204 (95% credible interval 1,140–1,297). Despite the positive effect in reducing transmission, the effect of school closure is relatively small and may not justify the routine use of this measure.

positive: Reopening Schools in the Time of Pandemic: Look to the School Nurses

positive: Age-Related Morbidity and Mortality among Patients with COVID-19 On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a pandemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic, an age-associated vulnerability in the burden of disease has been uncovered. Understanding the spectrum of illness and the pathogenic mechanism of the disease in a vulnerable population is critical, especially during the pandemic. Herein, we reviewed published COVID-19 epidemiology data from several countries to identify any consistent trends in the relationship between age and COVID-19-associated morbidity or mortality. We also reviewed the literature for studies explaining the difference in the host response to SARS-CoV-2 infection according to age. The insights from these data will be useful in determining the treatment policies and preventive measures of COVID-19.

positive: COVID-19–We urgently need to start developing an exit strategy Abstract Aim The purpose of this perspective is to review the options countries have to exit the draconian “lock downs” in a carefully staged manner. Methods Experts from different countries experiencing Corona Virus Infectious Disease 2019 (COVID-19) review evidence and country specific approaches and results of their interventions. Results Three key factors are important: 1. Reintroduction from countries with ongoing community transmission; 2. The need for extensive testing capacity and widespread community testing, and 3. Adequate supply of personal protective equipment, PPE, to protect health care workers. Lifting social distancing is discussed at length. How to open manufacturing, construction and logistics. The opening og higher educational institutions and schools. The use of electronic surveillance is discussed. Conclusion Each country has to decide what is the best path forward. However, we can learn from each other and the approach is in reality very similar.

positive: Prolonged presence of SARS-CoV-2 in feces of pediatric patients during the convalescent phase Background: Severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a newly identified virus which mainly spreads from person-to-person. Fecal shedding of SARS-CoV-2 has been constantly reported in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Most published studies focus on adult populations, whereas data concerning pediatric patients is relatively scarce. Methods: From January 17, 2020 to March 6, 2020, three pediatric cases of COVID-19 were reported in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment data of these children were collected. Real-time fluorescence reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in throat swabs and fecal specimens. Results: All the three pediatric cases were household contacts of adults whose symptoms developed earlier. There has been no evidence showing the virus was transmitted from the children to others. Severity of disease of these children was mild to moderate and fever was the most consistent and predominant symptom at onset of illness (two cases had body temperature higher than 38.5 Celsius). All children showed increased lymphocytes (>4.4*109/L) with normal white blood cell counts on admission. One child had elevated serum levels of procalcitonin and C-reaction protein. Radiological changes were not typical for COVID-19. All children showed good response to supportive treatment. Clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory tract occurred within two weeks after abatement of fever, whereas persistent presence of viral RNA was found in stools of all children. One case had fecal SARS-CoV-2 turned negative 8 days after throat swabs showing negative, while that of another child lagged behind for 20 days. At the time of writing, one child still had positive results for RT-PCR analysis in stools after negative conversion of viral RNA in respiratory samples (over 19 days behind). Conclusions: Pediatric patients with COVID-19 are very different from adult patients in regards to epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics. Prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children indicates the potential for the virus to be transmitted through fecal excretion. Massive efforts should be made at all levels to prevent spreading of the infection among children after reopening of kindergartens and schools.

positive: Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and rapidly spread worldwide. In the absence of effective antiviral drugs and vaccines, well-targeted social distancing measures are essential for mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing strain on local health systems, and preventing mortality. Here, we provide a quantitative assessment of the efficacy of social distancing to slow COVID-19 transmission and reduce hospital surge, depending on the timing and extent of the measures imposed for a metropolitan region and its health care systems. We built a granular mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporated age-specific and risk-stratified heterogeneity, estimates for the transmission, and severity of COVID-19 using current best evidence. We performed thousands of stochastic simulations of COVID-19 transmission in the Austin-Round Rock Metropolitan Area to project the impact of school closures coupled with social distancing measures that were estimated to reduce non-household contacts by 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% or 90%. We compare early versus late implementation and estimate the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations, ICU patients, ventilator needs and deaths through mid-August, 2020. We queried local emergency services and hospital systems to estimate total hospital bed, ICU, and ventilator capacity for the region. We expected COVID-19 hospital beds and ICU requirements would surpass local capacity by mid-May if no intervention was taken. Assuming a four-day epidemic doubling time, school closures alone would be expected to reduce peak hospitalizations by only 18% and cumulative deaths by less than 3%. Immediate social distancing measures that reduced non-household contacts by over 75%, such as stay-at-home orders and closing of non-essential businesses, would be required to ensure that COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm local hospital surge capacity. Peak ICU bed demand prior to mid August 2020 would be expected to be reduced from 2,121 (95% CI: 2,018-2,208) with no intervention to 698 (95% CI: 204-1,100) with 75% social distancing and 136 (95% CI: 38-308) with 90% social distancing; current ICU bed capacity was estimated at 680. A two-week delay in implementation of such measures is projected to accelerate a local ICU bed shortage by four weeks. School closures alone hardly impact the epidemic curve. Immediate social distancing measures that reduce non-household contacts by over 75% were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases do not overwhelm local hospital surge capacity. These findings helped inform the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by the city of Austin, Texas on March 24, 2020 as a means of mitigating the emerging COVID-19 epidemic.

positive: Un-Muting Medical Student Education: Utilizing Telemedicine During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond UNSTRUCTURED: Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, medical schools have paused traditional clerkships, eliminating direct patient encounters from medical student education for the immediate future. Telemedicine offers opportunities in a variety of specialties that can augment student education during this time. The projected growth of telemedicine necessitates that students learn new skills to be effective providers. In this Viewpoint, we delineate specific telehealth opportunities that teach core competencies for patient care, while also teaching telemedicine specific skills. Schools can further augment student education through a variety of telemedicine initiatives across multiple medical fields. The explosion of telemedicine programs due to the pandemic can be a catalyst for schools to integrate telemedicine into their current curricula. The depth and variety of telemedicine opportunities allows schools to continue providing high quality medical education while maintaining social distancing policies.

positive: Predicting the second wave of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI Marissa Renardy and Denise Kirschner University of Michigan Medical School The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the patchwork nature of disease epidemics, with infection spread dynamics varying wildly across countries and across states within the US. These heteroge- neous patterns are also observed within individual states, with patches of concentrated outbreaks. Data is being generated daily at all of these spatial scales, and answers to questions regarded re- opening strategies are desperately needed. Mathematical modeling is useful in exactly these cases, and using modeling at a county scale may be valuable to further predict disease dynamics for the purposes of public health interventions. To explore this issue, we study and predict the spread of COVID-19 in Washtenaw County, MI, the home to University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University, and Google, as well as serving as a sister city to Detroit, MI where there has been a serious outbreak. Here, we apply a discrete and stochastic network-based modeling framework allowing us to track every individual in the county. In this framework, we construct contact net- works based on synthetic population datasets specific for Washtenaw County that are derived from US Census datasets. We assign individuals to households, workplaces, schools, and group quarters (such as prisons). In addition, we assign casual contacts to each individual at random. Using this framework, we explicitly simulate Michigan-specific government-mandated workplace and school closures as well as social distancing measures. We also perform sensitivity analyses to identify key model parameters and mechanisms contributing to the observed disease burden in the three months following the first observed cases on COVID-19 in Michigan. We then consider several scenarios for relaxing restrictions and reopening workplaces to predict what actions would be most prudent. In particular, we consider the effects of 1) different timings for reopening, and 2) different levels of workplace vs. casual contact re-engagement. Through simulations and sensitivity analyses, we explore mechanisms driving magnitude and timing of a second wave of infections upon re-opening. This model can be adapted to other US counties using synthetic population databases and data specific to those regions.

positive: Career Confidential: Teacher wonders how to help students during coronavirus shutdown Phyllis Fagell provides workplace advice to educators in this Kappan column. This month, a teacher wants to know how she can provide emotional support to students when the school is closed for the COVID-19 pandemic. A teachers’ colleagues provide a lot of free after-school help to students, making her feel obligated to do the same, even when it interferes with her family time or when students have not been doing the work during class.

positive: Children and Fecal SARS-CoV-2 shedding: Just the Tip of the Iceberg of Italian COVID-19 outbreak?

positive: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States BACKGROUND: A range of near-real-time online/mobile mapping dashboards and applications have been used to track the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. It remains unknown about small area-based spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States. METHODS: We obtained county-based counts of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the United States from January 22 to May 13, 2020 (N=1,386,050). We characterized the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic through detecting weekly hotspots of newly confirmed cases using Spatial and Space-Time Scan Statistics and quantifying the trends of incidence of COVID-19 by county characteristics using the Joinpoint analysis. RESULTS: Along with the national plateau reached in early April, COVID-19 incidence significantly decreased in the Northeast (estimated weekly percentage changes [EWPC]: -16.6%), but remained increasing in the Midwest, South and West Regions (EWPCs: 13.2%, 5.6%, and 5.7%, respectively). Higher risks of clustering and incidence of COVID-19 were consistently observed in metropolitan vs rural counties, counties closest to core airports, most populous counties, and counties with highest proportion of racial/ethnic minority counties. However, geographic differences in the incidence have shrunk since early April, driven by a significant decrease in the incidence in these counties (EWPC range: -2.0% - -4.2%) and a consistent increase in other areas (EWPC range: 1.5% - 20.3%). CONCLUSIONS: To substantially decrease the nationwide incidence of COVID-19, strict social distancing measures should be continuously implemented, especially in geographic areas with increasing risks, including rural areas. Spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of COVID-19 should be considered in decision-making on the timeline of re-opening for states and localities.

positive: Distinctive trajectories of COVID-19 epidemic by age and gender: a retrospective modeling of the epidemic in South Korea Objectives: Elderly people had suffered disproportional burden of COVID-19. We hypothesized that males and females in different age groups might have different epidemic trajectories. Methods: Using publicly available data from South Korea, daily new COVID-19 cases were fitted with generalized additive models, assuming Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Epidemic dynamics by age and gender groups were explored with interactions between smoothed time terms and age and gender. Results: A negative binomial distribution fitted the daily case counts best. Interaction between the dynamic patterns of daily new cases and age groups was statistically significant (p<0.001), but not with gender group. People aged 20-39 years led the epidemic processes in the society with two peaks: one major peak around March 1 and a smaller peak around April 7, 2020. The epidemic process among people aged 60 or above was trailing behind that of younger people with smaller magnitude. After March 15, there was a consistent decline of daily new cases among elderly people, despite large fluctuations of case counts among young adults. Conclusions: Although young people drove the COVID-19 epidemic in the whole society with multiple rebounds, elderly people could still be protected from virus infection after the peak of epidemic.

positive: WHO-INTEGRATE COVID framework Version 1.0: Criteria and considerations to guide evidence-informed decision-making on non-pharmacological interventions targeting COVID-19 Background: Decision-making on matters of public health requires the balancing of numerous, often conflicting factors. One approach to ensure relevancy and comprehensiveness of the criteria underpinning the decision is a broad societal discourse and participatory decision-making process. However, this often was not feasible within the time constraints imposed on by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. While not able or intended to replace stakeholder participation, evidence-to-decision frameworks can serve as a tool to approach relevancy and comprehensiveness of the criteria considered, even if not all voices of affected stakeholders could be heard in the process. Objective: The objective of this research project was to develop a decision-making framework adapted to the challenges decision-makers face when deliberating on national and sub-national level on non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) measures to address the global SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: We used the WHO-INTEGRATE framework Version 1.0 as a starting point. In phase I, we adapted the framework through brainstorming exercises and application to exemplary case studies. In phase II, we used the best-fit framework synthesis technique with the output of phase I serving as a priori framework. We conducted a content analysis of comprehensive strategy documents intended to guide the policy makers on the phasing out of the lockdown measures in Germany. Based on factors and criteria identified in this process, we adapted previous versions into the WHO-INTEGRATE COVID framework (WICID framework) Version 1.0. Results: Twelve comprehensive strategy documents were included in the content analysis. The revised WICID framework consists of eleven criteria, which are expanded on through 49 aspects contained within them, and the metacriterion quality of evidence. The criteria cover implications for the health of individuals and populations due to and beyond COVID-19, infringement on liberties and fundamental rights, acceptability considerations, societal, environmental, and economic implications, as well as resource and feasibility considerations. Discussion: In a third phase, the framework will be expanded through a comprehensive document analysis focusing on key-stakeholder groups across the society. The WICID framework V1.0 can be a tool to support comprehensive evidence-informed decision-making processes.

positive: Coping With COVID-19: Learning From Past Pandemics to Avoid Pitfalls and Panic It is imperative to concur on the main transmission routes of COVID-19 to explain risk and determine the most effective means to reduce illness and mortality. We must avoid generating irrational fear and maintain a broader perspective in the pandemic response, including assessing the possibility for substantial unintended consequences.

positive: Quantifying the impact of US state non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission COVID-19 is an ongoing public health emergency. Without a vaccine or effective antivirals, non-pharmaceutical interventions form the foundation of current response efforts. Quantifying the efficacy of these interventions is crucial. Using mortality data and a classification guide of state level responses, we relate the intensity of interventions to statistical estimates of transmission, finding that more stringent control measures are associated with larger reductions in disease proliferation. Additionally, we observe that transmission increases with population density, but not population size. These results may help inform future response efforts.

positive: COVID-19 Epidemic Study II: Phased Emergence From the Lockdown in Mumbai The nation-wide lockdown starting 25 March 2020, aimed at suppressing the spread of the COVID-19 disease, was extended until 31 May 2020 in three subsequent orders by the Government of India. The extended lockdown has had significant social and economic consequences and `lockdown fatigue' has likely set in. Phased reopening began from 01 June 2020 onwards. Mumbai, one of the most crowded cities in the world, has witnessed both the largest number of cases and deaths among all the cities in India (41986 positive cases and 1368 deaths as of 02 June 2020). Many tough decisions are going to be made on re-opening in the next few days. In an earlier IISc-TIFR Report, we presented an agent-based city-scale simulator(ABCS) to model the progression and spread of the infection in large metropolises like Mumbai and Bengaluru. As discussed in IISc-TIFR Report 1, ABCS is a useful tool to model interactions of city residents at an individual level and to capture the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the infection spread. In this report we focus on Mumbai. Using our simulator, we consider some plausible scenarios for phased emergence of Mumbai from the lockdown, 01 June 2020 onwards. These include phased and gradual opening of the industry, partial opening of public transportation (modelling of infection spread in suburban trains), impact of containment zones on controlling infections, and the role of compliance with respect to various intervention measures including use of masks, case isolation, home quarantine, etc. The main takeaway of our simulation results is that a phased opening of workplaces, say at a conservative attendance level of 20 to 33\%, is a good way to restart economic activity while ensuring that the city's medical care capacity remains adequate to handle the possible rise in the number of COVID-19 patients in June and July.

positive: School Opening Delay Effect on Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Korea: Based on Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Study BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical intervention strategy is significantly important to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. One of the interventions implemented by the government is a school closure. The Ministry of Education decided to postpone the school opening from March 2 to April 6 to minimize epidemic size. We aimed to quantify the school closure effect on the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The potential effects of school opening were measured using a mathematical model considering two age groups: children (aged 19 years and younger) and adults (aged over 19). Based on susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model, isolation and behavior-changed susceptible individuals are additionally considered. The transmission parameters were estimated from the laboratory confirmed data reported by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from February 16 to March 22. The model was extended with estimated parameters and estimated the expected number of confirmed cases as the transmission rate increased after school opening. RESULTS: Assuming the transmission rate between children group would be increasing 10 fold after the schools open, approximately additional 60 cases are expected to occur from March 2 to March 9, and approximately additional 100 children cases are expected from March 9 to March 23. After March 23, the number of expected cases for children is 28.4 for 7 days and 33.6 for 14 days. CONCLUSION: The simulation results show that the government could reduce at least 200 cases, with two announcements by the Ministry of education. After March 23, although the possibility of massive transmission in the children's age group is lower, group transmission is possible to occur.

positive: Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has required the implementation of severe mobility restrictions and social distancing measures worldwide. While these measures have been proven effective in abating the epidemic in several countries, it is important to estimate the effectiveness of testing and tracing strategies to avoid a potential second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. We integrate highly detailed (anonymized, privacy-enhanced) mobility data from mobile devices, with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model to describe the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that enforcing strict social distancing followed by a policy based on a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine, could keep the disease at a level that does not exceed the capacity of the health care system. Assuming the identification of 50% of the symptomatic infections, and the tracing of 40% of their contacts and households, which corresponds to about 9% of individuals quarantined, the ensuing reduction in transmission allows the reopening of economic activities while attaining a manageable impact on the health care system. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can play a major role in relaxing social distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

positive: Screen time for children and adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to laws and policies including national school closures, lockdown or shelter in place laws, and social distancing recommendations that may translate to higher overall screen time among children and adolescents for the duration of these laws and policies. These policies may need to be periodically re-instated to control future COVID-19 recurrences or other national emergencies. Excessive screen time is associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors such as obesity, high blood pressure, and insulin resistance because it increases sedentary time and is associated with snacking.

positive: COVID-19: How to Relax Social Distancing If You Must Following the April 16, 2020 release of the Opening Up America Again guidelines for relaxing COVID-19 social distancing policies, local leaders are concerned about future pandemic waves and lack robust strategies for tracking and suppressing transmission. Here, we present a framework for monitoring COVID-19 hospitalization data to project risks and trigger shelter-in-place orders to prevent overwhelming healthcare surges while minimizing the duration of costly lockdowns. Assuming the relaxation of social distancing increases the risk of infection ten-fold, the optimal strategy for Austin, Texas--the fastest-growing large city in the US--will trigger a total of 135 [90% prediction interval: 126-141] days of sheltering, allow schools to open in the fall, and result in an expected 2929 deaths [90% prediction interval: 2837-3026] by September 2021, which is 29% the annual mortality rate. In the months ahead, policy makers are likely to face difficult choices and the extent of public restraint and cocooning of vulnerable populations may save or cost thousands of lives.

positive: COVID-19: a perspective for lifting lockdown in Zimbabwe The Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) scourge has challenged the world’s health systems and presented multiple socio-economic and public health challenges to the states it has affected. Zimbabwe has been affected by the pandemic, and in response, the government has set up an array of measures, including a national lockdown, to curb transmission. While it is critical to maintain such vigorous containment measures, socio-economic pressures in Zimbabwe will challenge the sustainability of the lockdown. Given the potential for lift of the lockdown before the Covid-19 pandemic ends, we discuss the Covid-19 pandemic situation in Zimbabwe and viewpoints on important considerations and strategies for lifting the lockdown.

positive: Searching an Effective Therapy for the Coronavirus Pandemic: Do We See Light at the End of the Tunnel? Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). First reported at the end of December 2019 as a cause for clusters of pneumonia cases in Wuhan city in China, the rapid spread of this condition was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, by the World Health Organization (WHO). Apart from the mortality and morbidity associated with COVID-19, the massive social and financial havoc inflicted by this pandemic has left the entire world pondering if medical science can innovate and curtail the ongoing damage due to SARS-CoV-2. Recent findings of an open-label study that investigated the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin in COVID-19 patients in Marseille, France, has garnered some optimism in scientific quarters and the general public alike in terms of finding a treatment regimen to control the rampant rise of COVID-19. We will discuss the potential off-label therapy and studies as it pertains to COVID-19.

positive: Time to restart: A comparative compilation of triage recommendations in dentistry during the Covid −19 pandemic BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has become a enormous challenge for the health care facilitators. It has significantly affected the dental professionals in their clinical practices, hospitals and even dental schools. Due to the risk of cross – infection involved within in the dental setting, the dental professional is even scared to provide emergent treatment for a patient. AIM: The aim of this comparative review is to throw light on the essential knowledge that a clinician must acquire before triaging a patient, understanding the case definition of COVID-19 and preparedness required before planning to re-open the dental practices. METHODOLOGY: The updated database obtained from various governmental and non-governmental official webpages were rapidly analysed up till May 31, 2020. CONCLUSION: This compilation of recommendations and guidance laid by various authorities across the world will function as a foundation for safer dental practice within the future.

positive: Relaxing lockdown measures in epidemic outbreaks using selective socio-economic containment with uncertainty After an initial phase characterized by the introduction of timely and drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments are preparing to relax such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis caused by lockdowns. Assessing the impact of such openings in relation to the risk of a resumption of the spread of the disease is an extremely difficult problem due to the many unknowns concerning the actual number of people infected, the actual reproduction number and infection fatality rate of the disease. In this work, starting from a compartmental model with a social structure, we derive models with multiple feedback controls depending on the social activities that allow to assess the impact of a selective relaxation of the containment measures in the presence of uncertain data. Specific contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for all countries considered have been used. Results from different scenarios in some of the major countries where the epidemic is ongoing, including Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, are presented and discussed.

positive: The COVID-19 pandemic: implications for dental education Aim This narrative review aims to report on the impacts of COVID-19 on the provision of dental education in the 67 dental schools in the United States (US). Having set the scene and current challenges, it aims to suggest some strategies to overcome the issues facing dental schools going forward. Background In the US the Occupational Safety and Health Administration classified dentists in the very high risk category because of the potential for exposure to the virus as a result of aerosol generating procedures (AGP). In the last 20 years there have been two previous outbreaks of coronaviruses (severe acute respiratory syndrome and Middle East respiratory syndrome) which resulted in no long-term changes in the provision of dental education. The recent paper from Wuhan, China described action in the height of the infection but no sustainable actions to deliver dental education going forward. Challenges The challenges identified include: protecting the health of students, faculty and staff; ensuring the continuity and quality of dental education; ensuring confidence in health and safety measures; and keeping up with guidance. There is some variation across the US but most schools have suspended clinical teaching and implemented stay at home policies. Others have implemented social distancing in laboratories including clinical skills. The final challenge is ensuring that students have the teaching, experience and are assessed to ensure the competency of the graduating student. Solutions Technology in teaching and learning offers many opportunities. For didactic teaching distance learning has been implemented. There are 'off the shelf' programmes for teaching and assessment. The development of bespoke content is time consuming and one solution is for schools to share material. Although still requiring social distancing, manikins and haptics offer some opportunities for skills training. The need for excellent information sharing with faculty and students is emphasised. Conclusion Schools should re-evaluate their policies and curricula and incorporate appropriate methods of distance learning permanently into their teaching. Students should have outreach and multi-professional support in order to allow them to assist in the community during public health crises. Finally, gaps have been identified in US dental schools preparedness for pandemics.

positive: Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses. Part 2 - Hand hygiene and other hygiene measures: systematic review and meta-analysis. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of hand hygiene, surface disinfecting, and other hygiene interventions in preventing or reducing the spread of illnesses from respiratory viruses. DESIGN: Update of a systematic review and meta-analysis focussing on randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-RCTs (c-RCTs) evidence only. DATA SOURCES: Eligible trials from the previous Cochrane review, search of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, PubMed, Embase and CINAHL from 01 October 2010 to 01 April 2020, and forward and backward citation analysis of included studies. DATA SELECTION: RCTs and c-RCTs involving people of any age, testing the use of hand hygiene methods, surface disinfection or cleaning, and other miscellaneous barrier interventions. Face masks, eye protection, and person distancing are covered in Part 1 of our systematic review. Outcomes included acute respiratory illness (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI) or laboratory-confirmed influenza (influenza) and/or related consequences (e.g. death, absenteeism from school or work). DATA EXTRACTION AND ANALYSIS: Six authors working in pairs independently assessed risk of bias using the Cochrane tool and extracted data. The generalised inverse variance method was used for pooling by using the random-effects model, and results reported with risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: We identified 51 eligible trials. We included 25 randomised trials comparing hand hygiene interventions with a control; 15 of these could be included in meta-analyses. We pooled 8 trials for the outcome of ARI. Hand hygiene showed a 16% relative reduction in the number of participants with ARI (RR 0.84, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.86) in the intervention group. When we considered the more strictly defined outcomes of ILI and influenza, the RR for ILI was 0.98 (95% CI 0.85 to 1.14), and for influenza the RR was 0.91 (95% CI 0.61 to 1.34). Three trials measured absenteeism. We found a 36% relative reduction in absentee numbers in the hand hygiene group (RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.71). Comparison of different hand hygiene interventions did not favour one intervention type over another. We found no incremental effects of combining hand hygiene with using face masks or disinfecting surfaces or objects. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the lack of evidence for the impact of hand hygiene in reducing ILI and influenza, the modest evidence for reducing the burden of ARIs, and related absenteeism, justifies reinforcing the standard recommendation for hand hygiene measures to reduce the spread of respiratory viruses. Funding for relevant trials with an emphasis on adherence and compliance with such a measure is crucial to inform policy and global pandemic preparedness with confidence and precision.

positive: Covid-19 in South Korea. A novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome-CoV-2) that initially originated from Wuhan, China, in December 2019 has already caused a pandemic. While this novel coronavirus disease (covid-19) frequently induces mild diseases, it has also generated severe diseases among certain populations, including older-aged individuals with underlying diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. As of 31 March 2020, a total of 9786 confirmed cases with covid-19 have been reported in South Korea. South Korea has the highest diagnostic rate for covid-19, which has been the major contributor in overcoming this outbreak. We are trying to reduce the reproduction number of covid-19 to less than one and eventually succeed in controlling this outbreak using methods such as contact tracing, quarantine, testing, isolation, social distancing and school closure. This report aimed to describe the current situation of covid-19 in South Korea and our response to this outbreak.

positive: Complexities of difference and their significance for managing inequality in learning: Lessons from the COVID-19 crisis The purpose of this Viewpoint is to argue for an enlarged understanding and approach to the question of inequality and education. While much of the current discussion is correctly focused on learners’ material realities and how COVID-19 is exacerbating those inequalities, largely overlooked is how the core activity of the education experience—learning—is managed, simultaneously, at the macro-level of the state, and the micro-levels of the individual learner. We now know how complex learning is. Our new knowledge is informed by new understandings of the relationship between the biomedical and the social. It is suggested that what is necessary in this crisis and going into the future, is deconstructing and making sense of the complexities of these realities for the quality of the learning experience.

positive: The Mental Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic Across Different Cohorts

positive: Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or vaccines, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 547 published governmental interventions, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were used to calibrate the model parameters using non-linear least squares methods. We analyze the changes on the TR and effective reproduction number as a function of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states as well as population movement. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions, and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

positive: Modeling the Effects of Non-PharmaceuticalInterventions on COVID-19 Spread in Kenya Mathematical modeling of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) of COVID-19 in Kenya is presented. An SEIR compartment model is considered with additional compartments of hospitalized population whose condition is severe or critical and also the fatalities compartment. The basic reproduction number (R_0) is computed by next generation matrix approach and later expressed as a time-dependent function so as to incorporate the NPIs into the model. The resulting system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are solved using fourth-order and fifth-order Runge-Kutta methods. Different intervention scenarios are considered and results show that, implementation of closure of education insitutions, curfew and partial lockdown yield predicted delayed peaks of the overall infections, severe cases and fatalities and subsequently containement of the pandemic in the country.

positive: Impact of social distancing during COVID-19 pandemic on crime in Los Angeles and Indianapolis Governments have implemented social distancing measures to address the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The measures include instructions that individuals maintain social distance when in public, school closures, limitations on gatherings and business operations, and instructions to remain at home. Social distancing may have an impact on the volume and distribution of crime. Crimes such as residential burglary may decrease as a byproduct of increased guardianship over personal space and property. Crimes such as domestic violence may increase because of extended periods of contact between potential offenders and victims. Understanding the impact of social distancing on crime is critical for ensuring the safety of police and government capacity to deal with the evolving crisis. Understanding how social distancing policies impact crime may also provide insights into whether people are complying with public health measures. Examination of the most recently available data from both Los Angeles, CA, and Indianapolis, IN, shows that social distancing has had a statistically significant impact on a few specific crime types. However, the overall effect is notably less than might be expected given the scale of the disruption to social and economic life.

positive: How can airborne transmission of COVID-19 indoors be minimised? Abstract During the rapid rise in COVID-19 illnesses and deaths globally, and notwithstanding recommended precautions, questions are voiced about routes of transmission for this pandemic disease. Inhaling small airborne droplets is probable as a third route of infection, in addition to more widely recognized transmission via larger respiratory droplets and direct contact with infected people or contaminated surfaces. While uncertainties remain regarding the relative contributions of the different transmission pathways, we argue that existing evidence is sufficiently strong to warrant engineering controls targeting airborne transmission as part of an overall strategy to limit infection risk indoors. Appropriate building engineering controls include sufficient and effective ventilation, possibly enhanced by particle filtration and air disinfection, avoiding air recirculation and avoiding overcrowding. Often, such measures can be easily implemented and without much cost, but if only they are recognised as significant in contributing to infection control goals. We believe that the use of engineering controls in public buildings, including hospitals, shops, offices, schools, kindergartens, libraries, restaurants, cruise ships, elevators, conference rooms or public transport, in parallel with effective application of other controls (including isolation and quarantine, social distancing and hand hygiene), would be an additional important measure globally to reduce the likelihood of transmission and thereby protect healthcare workers, patients and the general public.

positive: Are dental schools adequately preparing dental students to face outbreaks of infectious diseases such as COVID‐19? The recent 2019‐novel coronavirus (2019‐nCoV, also known as SARS‐CoV‐2) has caused >2,622,571 confirmed cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) in >185 countries, and >182,359 deaths globally. More than 9000 healthcare workers have also been infected by 2019‐nCoV. Prior to the present pandemic of COVID‐19, there have been multiple large‐scale epidemics and pandemics of other viral respiratory infections, such as seasonal flu, Spanish flu (H1N1), severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and others. Dental professionals are at an increased risk for contracting these viruses from dental patients, as dental practice involves face‐to‐face communication with the patients and frequent exposure to saliva, blood, and other body fluids. Dental education can play an important role in the training of dentists, helping them to adopt adequate knowledge and attitudes related to infection control measures. The current dental curriculum does not cover infection control adequately, especially from airborne pathogens. Infection control education needs to be included in the dental curriculum itself, and students should be trained adequately to protect them and prevent the infection from disseminating even before they see their first patient.

positive: Medical Student Mobilization During A Crisis: Lessons From A COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team PROBLEM: On March 17, 2020, the Association of American Medical Colleges recommended the suspension of all direct patient contact responsibilities for medical students because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given this change, medical students nationwide had to grapple with how and where they could fill the evolving needs of their schools' affiliated clinical sites, physicians, and patients and the community. APPROACH: At Harvard Medical School (HMS), student leaders created a COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team to: (1) develop a student-led organizational structure that would optimize students' ability to efficiently mobilize interested peers in the COVID-19 response, both clinically and in the community, in a strategic, safe, smart, and resource-conscious way; and (2) serve as a liaison with the administration and hospital leaders to identify evolving needs and rapidly engage students in those efforts. OUTCOMES: Within a week of its inception, the COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team had more than 500 medical student volunteers from HMS and had shared the organizational framework of the response team with multiple medical schools across the country. The HMS student volunteers joined any of the 4 virtual committees to complete this work: Education for the Medical Community, Education for the Broader Community, Activism for Clinical Support, and Community Activism. NEXT STEPS: The COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team helped to quickly mobilize hundreds of students and has been integrated into HMS's daily workflow. It may serve as a useful model for other schools and hospitals seeking medical student assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Next steps include expanding the initiative further, working with the leaders of response teams at other medical schools to coordinate efforts, and identifying new areas of need at local hospitals and within nearby communities that might benefit from medical student involvement as the pandemic evolves.

positive: What can a Pandemic Teach Us about Competency Based Medical Education? Medical education is moving towards competency-based medical education (CBME) where learning and assessment are focused on predefined abilities and outcomes. While medical student and residency training have defined competencies and objectives that trainees need to achieve, training remains time -based. Students and residents graduate based on a preset length of training. The COVID -19 pandemic is disrupting educational and clinical environments and in some regions the workforce may not be adequate to respond to the needs of the community. This, therefore, presents an opportunity for the medical education community to reconsider time-based training and embrace a competency-based progression to accelerate entry into the workforce. This commentary discusses undergraduate and graduate medical education response to workforce pressures of COVID-19. On one hand, some medical schools are moving towards competency-based (early) graduation from medical school. On the other hand, residency programs have generally held to time -based completion of training. In the context of this clinical and educational disruption, there are two challenges to CBME progression of trainees. The first challenge is whether there is trust in competency-based assessment to permit time independent progression. The second involves a number of logistical issues to competency-based progression.

positive: Public Health Law and Science in the Community Mitigation Strategy for Covid-19 In a crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic, the role of judges is first and foremost to adjudicate urgent requests for temporary restraining orders and preliminary injunctions. This means that judges hearing challenges to bans on gatherings, orders to close gun shops, orders to halt abortion care, and detention of civil immigration detainees in crowded and unsanitary conditions are issuing orders based on the parties’ pleadings alone. There is no time—yet—for the discovery, expert testimony, or amicus briefs from professional groups that typically inform assessments of science by judges. This essay examines the role public health science is likely to play in the coming months as judges field challenges to mandatory orders adopted as part of the community mitigation the Covid-19 pandemic. It identifies voluntary guidelines from international and federal health agencies as a resource judges rely on heavily in reviewing emergency communicable disease control orders and argues that transparency of and accountability for guidelines should therefore be held to a higher bar than their voluntary status might otherwise suggest.

positive: Shut and re-open: the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 in Europe We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalisations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that the effect of school closure is visible as a reduction in the growth rate approximately 9 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. A large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible in countries such as Denmark or Norway, where community transmission is generally low. However, school reopening can contribute to significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies that ensure low classroom occupancy and a solid infrastructure to quickly identify and isolate new infections.

positive: Effectiveness of stay-in-place-orders during COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from US border counties. Recent studies on US counties, with varying effect sizes, show that stay-in-place-orders (SIPOs) are associated with a decline in new COVID-19 cases. Our estimation approach relies on county-pairs across state-borders where one state has SIPO whereas the other state does not, controls for matched county-pair fixed effects and day of observation fixed-effects. The county-pair sample from southern, mid-western, and mountain region states (from March 1, 2020 to April 25, 2020) shows that daily COVID-19 incidence case growth rate is 1.994 percentage points lower for counties in SIPO states relative to those bordering in non-SIPO states. Specifically, we find SIPO reduced daily growth rates by 1.97, 2.14, 2.03, and 2.27 percentage points after 1 to 5 days, 6 to 10 days, 11 to 15 days, and 16 to 20 days, respectively. Our effect sizes are much smaller than in the previous studies with the caveat that states in the northeast and on the west coast could not be included in the border county-pair specification. We find limited evidence of heterogeneous effects in counties with a higher population density, percentage of black or Hispanic residents, proportion of population over 65 years, and social association rates in a county. Nor do we find evidence of meaningful differences in effects of SIPO by county Gini index, unemployment, or GDP. The results of this study could further inform policymakers in making decisions on SIPO extensions or lifting of such orders.

positive: Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Toward COVID-19 in a Saudi Arabian Population: A Cross-Sectional Study Background Preventative measures are necessary to control a pandemic such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and different platforms to communicate guidelines have varying levels of effectiveness. Objective At the time of this study, there were no published studies investigating knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to COVID-19 within the Saudi population. Therefore, this study aims to address this gap in current knowledge and provide baseline data to the government and other health associations for preventive measurements for future outbreaks. Methods This study was conducted among the Saudi population using an online questionnaire. The questionnaire assessed the awareness of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incubation period, the known symptoms of COVID-19, the mode of transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and infection control measures for prevention. Results The study included 6000 participants. Most respondents (84.93%) of the population reported awareness of the virus, 78.78% reported a belief that the virus leads to death, 89.47% reported a belief that 14 days is the incubation period, and 93.73% were aware of the possibility of asymptomatic carriers. Conclusions The Saudi population is aware of the attitudes and practices of prevention as well as the mode of transmission. The efforts by the Ministry of Health were effective in increasing awareness among the Saudi population toward COVID-19.

positive: How Risk Perceptions, Not Evidence, Have Driven Harmful Policies on COVID-19 COVID-19 hits all of the cognitive triggers for how the lay public misjudges risk. Robust findings from the field of risk perception have identified unique characteristics of a risk that allow for greater attribution of frequency and probability than is likely to be aligned with the base-rate statistics of the risk. COVID-19 embodies these features. It is unfamiliar, invisible, dreaded, potentially endemic, involuntary, disproportionately impacts vulnerable populations such as the elderly and has the potential for widespread catastrophe. When risks with such characteristics emerge, it is imperative for there to be trust between those in governance and communication and the lay public in order to quell public fears. This is not the environment in which COVID-19 has emerged, potentially resulting in even greater perceptions of risk.

positive: Medical Students Are Not Essential Workers: Examining Institutional Responsibility During the COVID-19 Pandemic In light of the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME) released a joint statement in March 2020 recommending an immediate suspension of medical student participation in direct patient contact. As graduating medical students who will soon begin residency, the authors fully support this recommendation. Though paid health care workers, like residents, nurses, and environmental services staff, are essential to the management of COVID-19 patients, medical students are not. Students’ continued involvement in direct patient care will contribute to SARS-CoV-2 exposures and transmissions and will waste already limited personal protective equipment. By decreasing nonessential personnel in health care settings, including medical students, medical schools will contribute to national and global efforts to “flatten the curve.” The authors also assert that medical schools are responsible for ensuring medical student safety. Without the protections provided to paid health care workers, students are uniquely disadvantaged within the medical hierarchy; these inequalities must be addressed before medical students are safely reintegrated into clinical roles. Although graduating medical students and institutional leadership may worry that suspending clinical rotations might prevent students from completing graduation requirements, the authors argue the ethical obligation to “flatten the curve” supersedes usual teaching responsibilities. Therefore, the authors request further guidance from the LCME and AAMC regarding curricular exemptions/alternatives and adjusted graduation timelines. The pool of graduating medical students affected by this pause in direct patient contact represents a powerful reserve, which may soon need to be used as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the U.S. health care infrastructure.

positive: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on final year medical students in the United Kingdom: a national survey BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) global pandemic has resulted in unprecedented public health measures. This has impacted the UK education sector with many universities halting campus-based teaching and examinations. The aim of this study is to identify the impact of COVID-19 on final year medical students’ examinations and placements in the United Kingdom (UK) and how it might impact their confidence and preparedness going into their first year of foundation training. METHODS: A 10-item online survey was distributed to final year medical students across 33 UK medical schools. The survey was designed by combining dichotomous, multiple choice and likert response scale questions. Participants were asked about the effect that the COVID-19 global pandemic had on final year medical written exams, electives, assistantships and objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs). The survey also explored the student’s confidence and preparedness going into their first year of training under these new unprecedented circumstances. RESULTS: Four hundred forty students from 32 UK medical schools responded. 38.4% (n = 169) of respondents had their final OSCEs cancelled while 43.0% (n = 189) had already completed their final OSCEs before restrictions. 43.0% (n = 189) of assistantship placements were postponed while 77.3% (n = 340) had electives cancelled. The impact of COVID-19 on OSCEs, written examinations and student assistantships significantly affected students’ preparedness (respectively p = 0.025, 0.008, 0.0005). In contrast, when measuring confidence, only changes to student assistantships had a significant effect (p = 0.0005). The majority of students feel that measures taken during this pandemic to amend their curricula was necessary. Respondents also agree that assisting in hospitals during the outbreak would be a valuable learning opportunity. CONCLUSIONS: The impact on medical student education has been significant, particularly affecting the transition from student to doctor. This study showed the disruptions to student assistantships had the biggest effect on students’ confidence and preparedness. For those willing to assist in hospitals to join the front-line workforce, it is crucial to maintain their wellbeing with safeguards such as proper inductions, support and supervision.

positive: Spotlight on child abuse and neglect response in the time of COVID-19

positive: How risk communication could have reduced controversy about school closures in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic Although there has been consistent evidence indicating that school closures have only limited efficacy in reducing community transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the question of whether children should be kept home from school has attracted extensive and often divisive public debate in Australia. In this article we analyse the factors that drove high levels of concern among parents, teachers and the public and led to both demands for school closures in late March 2020, and to many parents' reluctance to return their children to school in May 2020. We discuss how the use of well-established principles of risk communication might have reduced much of this community concern. Then we set out a range of practical suggestions for communication practices that build trust and hence diminish concerns in relation to managing schools over the long term of the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: Determining depression and related factors in a society affected by COVID-19 pandemic BACKGROUND: Turkey has one of the highest death rates in the world due to COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic caused anxiety and depression in individuals. However, there is insufficient information on the effects of COVID-19 on individuals and their coping methods. Therefore, mental problems associated with the pandemic need to be evaluated rapidly. AIMS: This study was carried out to determine depression levels and related factors in a society affected by COVID-19. METHOD: The study was planned using a descriptive cross-sectional design. The study started 2 weeks after the first diagnosis of COVID-19 in Turkey and was carried out between March 23 and April 3, 2020. The study included 1115 adult participants who were between 18 and 65 years of age and were citizens of the Turkish Republic. The study was carried out using online questionnaires, and data were collected with the Personal Information Form and the Beck Depression Inventory. The data were evaluated using IBM SPSS Statistics, version 20 software program. RESULTS: The depression scores of female participants who were between 18 and 29 years of age, single, students, and had less income than their expenses were found to be higher than others. People who experienced fear of being infected and infecting others, had a cleaning obsession, anxiety about the future, sadness, and anxiousness experienced depression at lower levels when compared to other participants. Participants who had to change their place of residence during the quarantine, experienced loneliness, fear of death, hopelessness, sleep problems, felt useless and worthless, started to smoke and drink alcohol, and experienced depression at moderate levels. Depression scores of those who spent time with their family, made time for themselves, were busy with home education or work were lower compared to others. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic caused mild-level depression in the Turkish society.

positive: Impact of COVID -19 on children: special focus on the psychosocial aspect. Although medical literature shows that children are minimally susceptible to 2019-Corona virus disease (COVID-19), they are hit the hardest by psychosocial impact of this pandemic. Being quarantined in homes and institutions may impose greater psychological burden than the physical sufferings caused by the virus. School closure, lack of outdoor activity, aberrant dietary and sleeping habits are likely to disrupt children's usual lifestyle and can potentially promote monotony, distress, impatience, annoyance and varied neuropsychiatric manifestations. Incidences of domestic violence, child abuse, adulterated online contents are on the rise. Children of single parent and frontline workers suffer unique problems. The children from marginalized communities are particularly susceptible to the infection and may suffer from extended ill-consequences of this pandemic, such as child labor, child trafficking, child marriage, sexual exploitation and death etc. Parents, pediatricians, psychologists, social workers, hospital authorities, government and non-governmental organizations have important roles to play to mitigate the psychosocial ill-effects of COVID-19 on children and adolescents. To provide the basic amenities, social security, medical care, and to minimize the educational inequities among the children of the different strata of the society are foremost priorities.

positive: A mathematical model to guide the re-opening of economies during the COVID-19 pandemic Despite rigorous global containment and quarantine efforts, the incidence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), also known as COVID-19, continues to surge, with more than 12 million laboratory-confirmed cases and over 500,000 deaths worldwide (as of 11 July 2020). Aside from the continued surge in cases and the imperatives of public health concern and saving lives, economic devastation is also mounting with a global depression now seeming inevitable. There is limited attention directed towards people who have recovered from the virus and whether this metric can be useful in guiding when the economy can be re-opened. In this paper, a simpler model is presented in order to guide various countries on the (possible) re-opening of the economy (or re-opening in stages/phases) alongside risk categories and ratios. Factors that need to be considered when applying the model include the healthcare capacity in terms of the number of hospitals, beds and healthcare workers that are available to capacitate this virus. In addition, population size, physical distancing measures, socio-economic disparities, lockdown regulations in each country, and more importantly - the amount and accuracy of testing conducted, is also imperative to consider. Decisions adopted by leaders around the world have the most difficult decision to make (yet), and have to weigh up on what really matters; health or wealth. It is suggested that this model be applied in a number of states/counties and countries in order to gauge the risk of their location being re-opened, by observing their total number of recoveries in proximity to total number of cases.

positive: How COVID-19 has exposed inequalities in the UK food system: The case of UK food and poverty This article draws upon our perspective as academic-practitioners working in the fields of food insecurity, food systems, and inequality to comment, in the early stages of the pandemic and associated lockdown, on the empirical and ethical implications of COVID-19 for socio-economic inequalities in access to food in the UK. The COVID-19 pandemic has sharpened the profound insecurity of large segments of the UK population, an insecurity itself the product of a decade of ‘austerity’ policies. Increased unemployment, reduced hours, and enforced self-isolation for multiple vulnerable groups is likely to lead to an increase in UK food insecurity, exacerbating diet-related health inequalities. The social and economic crisis associated with the pandemic has exposed the fragility of the system of food charity which, at present, is a key response to growing poverty. A vulnerable food system, with just-in-time supply chains, has been challenged by stockpiling. Resultant food supply issues at food banks, alongside rapidly increasing demand and reduced volunteer numbers, has undermined many food charities, especially independent food banks. In the light of this analysis, we make a series of recommendations. We call for an immediate end to the five week wait for Universal Credit and cash grants for low income households. We ask central and local government to recognise that many food aid providers are already at capacity and unable to adopt additional responsibilities. The government’s - significant - response to the economic crisis associated with COVID-19 has underscored a key principle: it is the government’s responsibility to protect population health, to guarantee household incomes, and to safeguard the economy. Millions of households were in poverty before the pandemic, and millions more will be so unless the government continues to protect household incomes through policy change.

positive: Simulating school closure strategies to mitigate an influenza epidemic. BACKGROUND There remains substantial debate over the impact of school closure as a mitigation strategy during an influenza pandemic. The ongoing 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic has provided an unparalleled opportunity to test interventions with the most up-to-date simulations. METHODS To assist the Allegheny County Health Department during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease Agents Study group employed an agent-based computer simulation model (ABM) of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, to explore the effects of various school closure strategies on mitigating influenza epidemics of different reproductive rates (R0). RESULTS Entire school system closures were not more effective than individual school closures. Any type of school closure may need to be maintained throughout most of the epidemic (ie, at least 8 weeks) to have any significant effect on the overall serologic attack rate. In fact, relatively short school closures (ie, 2 weeks or less) may actually slightly increase the overall attack rate by returning susceptible students back into schools in the middle of the epidemic. Varying the illness threshold at which school closures are triggered did not seem to have substantial impact on the effectiveness of school closures, suggesting that short delays in closing schools should not cause concern. CONCLUSIONS School closures alone may not be able to quell an epidemic but, when maintained for at least 8 weeks, could delay the epidemic peak for up to a week, providing additional time to implement a second more effective intervention such as vaccination.

positive: Dataset of Ex-pat Teachers in Southeast Asia's Intention to Leave due to the COVID-19 pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic exerted an adverse influence on the global education system, especially since starting school lockdown. The growth of teacher unemployment figures climbed double-digit and spawned these unexpected sequels. For instance, while native teachers seemed indisposed to leave the profession with the aim of seeking another more profited and seasonal jobs, many ex-pat teachers presented themselves with moving or stayed dilemma in the way the government salvaged their situation. In preference with the ex-pat teacher's case, we elucidated further throughout an e-survey in the International Baccalaureate community on Facebook from 4 to 11 April 2020 for 18,000 ex-pat teachers, who are teaching at Southeast Asia. This dataset includes 307 responses of ex-pat teachers who are staying in Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia during the pandemic. The dataset comprises (i) Survey partakers' Demographics; (ii) Ex-pat teachers' perceptions in the relation of national, regional and school plans were afoot to the pandemic; (iii) The degree of attachment of ex-pat teacher to their current society, the ex-pat community, friends, and families during the pandemic time; (iv) Ex-pat teachers' embryo intention to reconsider their current teaching location.

positive: COVID-19 pandemic: Impact caused by school closure and national lockdown on pediatric visits and admissions for viral and non-viral infections, a time series analysis A time series analysis of 871,543 pediatric emergency visits revealed that the COVID-19 lockdown and school closure were associated with a significant decrease in infectious diseases disseminated through airborne or fecal-oral transmissions: common cold, gastro-enteritis, bronchiolitis, acute otitis. No change was found for urinary tract infections.

positive: Science Education in the Light of COVID-19: The Contribution of History, Philosophy and Sociology of Science In this position paper, I examine how the history, philosophy and sociology of science (HPS) can contribute to science education in the era of the COVID-19 pandemic. I discuss shortcomings in the ways that history is often used in school science, and examine how knowledge of previous pandemics might help in teaching about COVID-19. I look at the potential of issues to do with measurement in the context of COVID-19 (e.g. measurement of mortality figures) to introduce school students to issues about philosophy of science, and I show how COVID-19 has the affordance to broaden and deepen the moral philosophy that students typically meet in biology lessons. COVID-19 also provides opportunities to introduce students to sociological ways of thinking, examining data and questioning human practices. It can also enable students to see how science, economics and politics inter-relate. In the final part of the paper, I suggest that there are strong arguments in favour of an interdisciplinary approach in tackling zoonoses like COVID-19 and that there is much to be said for such interdisciplinarity in school science lessons when teaching about socio-scientific issues and issues intended to raise scientific literacy.

positive: Expected impact of reopening schools after lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Ile-de-France As several countries around the world are planning exit strategies to progressively lift the rigid social restrictions implemented with lockdown, different options are being chosen regarding the closure or reopening of schools. We evaluate the expected impact of reopening schools in lIe-de-France region after the withdrawal of lockdown currently scheduled for May 11, 2020. We explore several scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening, coupled with moderate social distancing interventions and large-scale tracing, testing, and isolation. Accounting for current uncertainty on the role of children in COVID-19 epidemic, we test different hypotheses on children's transmissibility distinguishing between younger children (pre-school and primary school age) and adolescents (middle and high school age). Reopening schools after lifting lockdown will likely lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the following 2 months, even with lower transmissibility of children, yet protocols exist that would allow maintaining the epidemic under control without saturating the healthcare system. With pre-schools and primary schools in session starting May 11, ICU occupation would reach at most 72% [55,83]% (95% probability ranges) of a 1,500-bed capacity (here foreseen as the routine capacity restored in the region post-first wave) if no other school level reopens before summer or if middle and high schools reopen one month later through a progressive protocol (increasing attendance week by week). Full attendance of adolescents at school starting in June would overwhelm the ICU system (138% [118,159]% occupation). Reopening all schools on May 11 would likely lead to a second wave similar to the one recently experienced, except if maximum attendance is limited to 50% for both younger children and adolescents. Based on the estimated situation on May 11, no substantial difference in the epidemic risk is predicted between progressive and prompt reopening of pre-schools and primary schools, thus allowing full attendance of younger children mostly in need of resuming learning and development. Reopening would require however large-scale trace and testing to promptly isolate cases, in addition to moderate social distancing interventions. Full attendance in middle and high schools is instead not recommended. Findings are consistent across different assumptions on the relative transmissibility of younger children and for small increase of the reproductive number possibly due to decreasing compliance to lockdown.

positive: Accelerated Graduation and the Deployment of New Physicians During the COVID-19 Pandemic The COVID-19 pandemic has presented unprecedented challenges and opportunities for medical schools in the United States. In this Invited Commentary, the authors describe a unique collaboration between the University of Massachusetts Medical School (UMMS), the only public medical school in the state; the University of Massachusetts Memorial Medical Center (UMMMC); and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Through this partnership, UMMS was able to graduate fourth-year medical students 2 months early and deploy them to UMMMC to care for patients and alleviate workforce shortages during the COVID-19 surge, which peaked in Massachusetts in April 2020. The authors describe how they determined if students had fulfilled graduation requirements to graduate early, what commencement and the accompanying awards ceremony looked like this year as virtual events, the special emergency 90-day limited license these new graduates were given to practice at UMMMC during this time, and the impact these new physicians had in the hospital allowing residents and attendings to be redeployed to care for COVID-19 patients.

positive: A structured model for COVID-19 spread: modelling age and healthcare inequities We use stochastic branching process model, structured by age and level of healthcare access, to look at the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 within a population. We examine the effect of control scenarios targeted at particular groups, such as school closures or social distancing by older people. Although we currently lack detailed empirical data about contact and infection rates between different age groups and groups with different levels of healthcare access within New Zealand, these scenarios illustrate how such evidence could be used to inform specific interventions. We find that an increase in the transmission rates amongst children as a result of reopening schools is, on its own, unlikely to significantly increase the number of cases. However, if this is accompanied by a change in adult behaviour, for example increased contact rates among parents, it could have a much bigger effect. We also find that there is a risk of undetected outbreaks occurring in communities that have low access to healthcare and that are socially isolated from more privileged communities. The greater the inequity and the greater the degree of social segregation, the longer it will take before any outbreaks are detected. Well-established evidence for health inequities, particularly in accessing primary healthcare and testing, indicates that M[a]ori and Pacific peoples are at higher risk of undetected outbreaks in Aotearoa New Zealand. This highlights the importance of ensuring that community needs for access to healthcare, including early proactive testing, rapid contact tracing, and the ability to isolate, are being met equitably. Finally, these scenarios illustrate how information concerning contact and infection rates across different demographic groups may be useful in informing specific policy interventions.

positive: An international physical activity and public health research agenda to inform COVID-19 policies and practices

positive: COVID-19 , School Closings and Weight Gain. We found the publication on "COVID-19 Related School Closings and Risk of Weight Gain Among Children" to be interesting.1 Rundle et al. noted that "we anticipate that the COVID-19 pandemic will likely double out-of-school time this year for many children in the U.S. and will exacerbate the risk factors for weight gain associated with summer recess."1 In fact, there are several factors relating to nutritional status of the children. We would like to share observations from Thailand, the second country in the timeline of COVID-19.2 In Thailand, school aged children in rural areas where COVID-19 disease outbreak exists are usually underweight.3 Thus, school closing means the children have to live with poor parents adding to economic problems of the family.

positive: The Psychological Impacts of a COVID-19 Outbreak on College Students in China: A Longitudinal Study An outbreak in Wuhan, China in late 2019 of a highly infectious new coronary pneumonia (COVID-19) led to the imposition of countrywide confinement measures from January to March 2020. This is a longitudinal study on changes in the mental health status of a college population before and after their COVID-19 confinement for the first two weeks, focusing on states of psychological distress, depression, anxiety and affectivity. The influence of possible stressors on their mental health were investigated, including inadequate supplies and fears of infection. Five hundred and fifty-five undergraduate students were recruited from Hebei Agricultural University in Baoding, China. The participants completed two online surveys—on anxiety and depression, and on positive and negative affect. One survey was conducted before the confinement and the other was conducted 15–17 days after the start of the confinement. Increases in negative affect and symptoms of anxiety and depression (p-values < 0.001) were observed after 2 weeks of confinement. Inadequate supplies of hand sanitizers, a higher year of study, and higher scores on anxiety and depression were common predictors of increased negative affect, anxiety, and depression across the confinement period. The results suggest that healthcare policymakers should carefully consider the appropriate confinement duration, and ensure adequate supplies of basic infection-control materials.

positive: Prevent the resurgence of infectious disease with asymptomatic carriers As many countries reached the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, there is debate on how to reopen the economy without causing a significant resurgence. Here we show, using a microsimulation model, that how to reopen safely depends on what percentage of COVID-19 cases can be detected by testing. The higher the detection rate, the less restrictive the reopen plan needs to be. If 70% of cases can be detected, schools and businesses can reopen if 2-layer quarantine is imposed on each confirmed case. Our results suggest that increasing the detection rate is essential to prevent the resurgence of COVID-19.

positive: COVID‐19: Moving beyond the pandemic Severe acute respiratory syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) is the cause of COVID‐19. As of April 11th, 2020, there were almost 2 million cases of COVID‐19 internationally and over 100,000 deaths (John Hopkins University, 2020). There has been significant effort to increase hospital and healthcare capacity to reduce the number of fatalities associated with this global pandemic (Choi & Logsdon 2020).

positive: Mortality statistics in England and Wales: the SARS-CoV-2 paradox OBJECTIVE: To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality. METHODS: Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates. RESULTS: During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the “SARS-CoV-2 paradox.” We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data. CONCLUSIONS: Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.

positive: Academic Coaching of Medical Students During COVID-19. Social distancing measures due to the COVID-19 pandemic has required many medical schools to adapt existing on-site medical education activities to delivery via online platforms. The sudden switch to a new, unfamiliar model of learning led to additional challenges for students. We observed that students requiring academic support often had ineffective learning strategies, poor motivation, and suboptimal communication skills, all of which were magnified by home-based learning. We therefore established a virtual academic coaching programme to engage these students and to address specific challenges that arose from an adapted educational programme.

positive: Planning of School Teaching during COVID-19 More than one billion students are out of school because of Covid-19, forced to a remote learning that has several drawbacks and has been hurriedly arranged; in addition, most countries are currently uncertain on how to plan school activities for the 2020-2021 school year; all of this makes learning and education some of the biggest world issues of the current pandemic. Unfortunately, due to the length of the incubation period of Covid-19, full opening of schools seems to be impractical till a vaccine is available. In order to support the possibility of some in-person learning, we study a mathematical model of the diffusion of the epidemic due to school opening, and evaluate plans aimed at containing the extra Covid-19 cases due to school activities while ensuring an adequate number of in-class learning periods. We consider a SEAIR model with an external source of infection and a suitable loss function; after a realistic parameter selection, we numerically determine optimal school opening strategies by simulated annealing. It turns out that blended models, with almost periodic alternations of in-class and remote teaching days or weeks, are generally optimal. Besides containing Covid-19 diffusion, these solutions could be pedagogically acceptable, and could also become a driving model for the society at large. In a prototypical example, the optimal strategy results in the school opening 90 days out of 200 with the number of Covid-19 cases among the individuals related to the school increasing by about 66%, instead of the about 250% increase that would have been a consequence of full opening.

positive: How Simulations May Help Us to Understand the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Spread. – Visualizing Non‐Intuitive Behaviors of a Pandemic (pansim.uni‐jena.de) The new coronavirus SARS‐COV‐2 is currently impacting life around the globe (1). The rapid spread of this viral disease might be highly challenging for health care systems. This was seen in Northern Italy and in New York City for example(2). Governments reacted with different measures such as shutdown of all schools, universities and up to a general curfew. All of those measures have a huge impact on the economy. The United Nations secretary general has stated recently: “The COVID‐19 pandemic is one of the most dangerous challenges this world has faced in our lifetime.

positive: Protocol for the development and evaluation of a tool for predicting risk of short-term adverse outcomes due to COVID-19 in the general UK population Introduction: Novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has propagated a global pandemic with significant health, economic and social costs. Emerging emergence has suggested that several factors may be associated with increased risk from severe outcomes or death from COVID-19. Clinical risk prediction tools have significant potential to generate individualised assessment of risk and may be useful for population stratification and other use cases. Methods and analysis: We will use a prospective open cohort study of routinely collected data from 1205 general practices in England in the QResearch database. The primary outcome is COVID-19 mortality (in or out-of-hospital) defined as confirmed or suspected COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, or death occurring in a person with SARS-CoV-2 infection between 24th January and 30th April 2020. Our primary outcome in adults is COVID-19 mortality (including out of hospital and in hospital deaths). We will also examine COVID-19 hospitalisation in children. Time-to-event models will be developed in the training data to derive separate risk equations in adults (19-100 years) for males and females for evaluation of risk of each outcome within the 3-month follow-up period (24th January to 30th April 2020), accounting for competing risks. Predictors considered will include age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index, pre-existing medical co-morbidities, and concurrent medication. Measures of performance (prediction errors, calibration and discrimination) will be determined in the test data for men and women separately and by ten-year age group. For children, descriptive statistics will be undertaken if there are currently too few serious events to allow development of a risk model. The final model will be externally evaluated in (a) geographically separate practices and (b) other relevant datasets as they become available. Ethics and dissemination: The project has ethical approval and the results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

positive: Prolonged viral shedding in feces of pediatric patients with coronavirus disease 2019 OBJECTIVE: To determine the dynamic changes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA in respiratory and fecal specimens in children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: From January 17, 2020 to February 23, 2020, three paediatric cases of COVID-19 were reported in Qingdao, Shandong Province, China. Epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics and treatment data were collected. Patients were followed up to March 10, 2020, and dynamic profiles of nucleic acid testing results in throat swabs and fecal specimens were closely monitored. RESULTS: Clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in respiratory tract occurred within two weeks after abatement of fever, whereas viral RNA remained detectable in stools of pediatric patients for longer than 4 weeks. Two children had fecal SARS-CoV-2 undetectable 20 days after throat swabs showing negative, while that of another child lagged behind for 8 days. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2 may exist in children's gastrointestinal tract for a longer time than respiratory system. Persistent shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in stools of infected children raises the possibility that the virus might be transmitted through contaminated fomites. Massive efforts should be made at all levels to prevent spreading of the infection among children after reopening of kindergartens and schools.

positive: COVID-19 Confirmed Case Incidence Age Shift to Young Persons Age 0-19 and 20-39 Years Over Time: Washington State March - April 2020 Background: As the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic passes the peak infection rate in some states and counties a phased re-opening with changes of stay-at-home restrictions and social distancing recommendations may lead to an increase of non-essential work, social activities and gathering, especially among younger persons. Methods: A longitudinal cohort analysis of Washington State Department of Health COVID-19 confirmed case age distribution March 1-April 19 2020 for proportional change over time using chi square tests for significance (N = 13,934). Results: From March 1st to April 19, 2020 age distribution shifted with a 10% decline in cases age 60 years and older and a 20% increase in age 0-19/20-39 years (chi-square = 223.10, p <.001). Number of cases over the eight-week analysis period were 0-19 years n = 515, 20-39 years n = 4078, 40-59 years n =4788, 60-79 years n = 3221, 80+ years n = 1332. New cases increased steadily among 0-19 and 20-39-year olds. After the peak (March 22, 2020), there was no decline among age 0-19 and a lesser decline among age 20-39 than older groups. As incidence declined in older age groups, the combined percentage of cases age 0-19 and 20-39 increased from 20% to 40% of total cases. Conclusions: Increased COVID-19 infection among children and young adults is not without serious morbidity and mortality risk to them and others they may come in contact with, indicating a targeted approach for awareness and safety measures is advisable to reduce incidence among the supposedly less vulnerable but more mobile young population age 0-19 and 20-39 years.

positive: COVID-19 and schooling in South Africa: Who should go back to school first? The COVID-19 pandemic is the largest social and economic shock of our lifetimes. As governments grapple with their responses to the virus, more than half the world’s countries have closed their schools and severely limited almost all forms of public life. This will have a profound impact on children, both now and in the decade to come. As many countries start to send children back to school, a question arises: who should go back to school first? This Viewpoint addresses that question in the context of a middle-income country, South Africa. Based on a review of much of the evidence available at the time of publication, it concludes that the youngest children are least susceptible to harm from COVID-19, are less likely to spread the virus than adults, and also have the most to lose by being out of school. Hence, they should be the ones to return to school first.

positive: The far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve: local re-openings based on globally coordinated triggers may work best In the late stages of an epidemic, infections are often sporadic and geographically distributed. Spatially structured stochastic models can capture these important features of disease dynamics, thereby allowing a broader exploration of interventions. Here we develop a stochastic model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission amongst an interconnected group of population centres representing counties, municipalities and districts (collectively, ``counties''). The model is parameterized with demographic, epidemiological, testing, and travel data from the province of Ontario, Canada. We explore the effects of different control strategies after the epidemic curve has been flattened. We compare a local strategy of re-opening (and re-closing, as needed) schools and workplaces county-by-county according to triggers for county-specific infection prevalence, to a global strategy of province-wide re-opening and re-closing according to triggers for province-wide infection prevalence. We find that the local strategy results in far fewer person-days of closure but only slightly more coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases, even under assumptions of high inter-county travel. However, both cases and person-days lost to closure rise significantly when county triggers are not coordinated by the province and when testing rates vary among counties. Finally, we show that local strategies can also do better in the early epidemic stage but only if testing rates are high and the trigger prevalence is low. Our results suggest that phased plans for re-opening economies on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve should consider preceding larger-scale re-openings with coordinated local re-openings.

positive: The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study Summary Background In December, 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China. Since then, the city of Wuhan has taken unprecedented measures in response to the outbreak, including extended school and workplace closures. We aimed to estimate the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, hoping to provide some insights for the rest of the world. Methods To examine how changes in population mixing have affected outbreak progression in Wuhan, we used synthetic location-specific contact patterns in Wuhan and adapted these in the presence of school closures, extended workplace closures, and a reduction in mixing in the general community. Using these matrices and the latest estimates of the epidemiological parameters of the Wuhan outbreak, we simulated the ongoing trajectory of an outbreak in Wuhan using an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model for several physical distancing measures. We fitted the latest estimates of epidemic parameters from a transmission model to data on local and internationally exported cases from Wuhan in an age-structured epidemic framework and investigated the age distribution of cases. We also simulated lifting of the control measures by allowing people to return to work in a phased-in way and looked at the effects of returning to work at different stages of the underlying outbreak (at the beginning of March or April). Findings Our projections show that physical distancing measures were most effective if the staggered return to work was at the beginning of April; this reduced the median number of infections by more than 92% (IQR 66–97) and 24% (13–90) in mid-2020 and end-2020, respectively. There are benefits to sustaining these measures until April in terms of delaying and reducing the height of the peak, median epidemic size at end-2020, and affording health-care systems more time to expand and respond. However, the modelled effects of physical distancing measures vary by the duration of infectiousness and the role school children have in the epidemic. Interpretation Restrictions on activities in Wuhan, if maintained until April, would probably help to delay the epidemic peak. Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually. However, there are limitations to our analysis, including large uncertainties around estimates of R 0 and the duration of infectiousness. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.

positive: Teacher led school-based surveillance can allow accurate tracking of emerging infectious diseases - evidence from serial cross-sectional surveys of febrile respiratory illness during the H1N1 2009 influenza pandemic in Singapore BACKGROUND: Schools are important foci of influenza transmission and potential targets for surveillance and interventions. We compared several school-based influenza monitoring systems with clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) surveillance, and assessed the variation in illness rates between and within schools. METHODS: During the initial wave of pandemic H1N1 (pdmH1N1) infections from June to Sept 2009 in Singapore, we collected data on nation-wide laboratory confirmed cases (Sch-LCC) and daily temperature monitoring (Sch-DTM), and teacher-led febrile respiratory illness reporting in 6 sentinel schools (Sch-FRI). Comparisons were made against age-stratified clinic-based influenza-like illness (ILI) data from 23 primary care clinics (GP-ILI) and proportions of ILI testing positive for pdmH1N1 (Lab-ILI) by computing the fraction of cumulative incidence occurring by epidemiological week 30 (when GP-ILI incidence peaked); and cumulative incidence rates between school-based indicators and sero-epidemiological pdmH1N1 incidence (estimated from changes in prevalence of A/California/7/2009 H1N1 hemagglutination inhibition titers ≥ 40 between pre-epidemic and post-epidemic sera). Variation in Sch-FRI rates in the 6 schools was also investigated through a Bayesian hierarchical model. RESULTS: By week 30, for primary and secondary school children respectively, 63% and 79% of incidence for Sch-LCC had occurred, compared with 50% and 52% for GP-ILI data, and 48% and 53% for Sch-FRI. There were 1,187 notified cases and 7,588 episodes in the Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM systems; given school enrollment of 485,723 children, this represented 0.24 cases and 1.6 episodes per 100 children respectively. Mean Sch-FRI rate was 28.8 per 100 children (95% CI: 27.7 to 29.9) in the 6 schools. We estimate from serology that 41.8% (95% CI: 30.2% to 55.9%) of primary and 43.2% (95% CI: 28.2% to 60.8%) of secondary school-aged children were infected. Sch-FRI rates were similar across the 6 schools (23 to 34 episodes per 100 children), but there was widespread variation by classrooms; in the hierarchical model, omitting age and school effects was inconsequential but neglecting classroom level effects led to highly significant reductions in goodness of fit. CONCLUSIONS: Epidemic curves from Sch-FRI were comparable to GP-ILI data, and Sch-FRI detected substantially more infections than Sch-LCC and Sch-DTM. Variability in classroom attack rates suggests localized class-room transmission.

positive: Children returning to schools following COVID-19: A balance of probabilities – Letter to the Editor

positive: Future Evolution of COVID-19 Pandemic in North Carolina: Can We Flatten the Curve? On June 24th, Governor Cooper announced that North Carolina will not be moving into Phase 3 of its reopening process at least until July 17th. Given the recent increases in daily positive cases and hospitalizations, this decision was not surprising. However, given the political and economic pressures which are forcing the state to reopen, it is not clear what actions will help North Carolina to avoid the worst. We use a compartmentalized model to study the effects of social distancing measures and testing capacity combined with contact tracing on the evolution of the pandemic in North Carolina until the end of the year. We find that going back to restrictions that were in place during Phase 1 will slow down the spread but if the state wants to continue to reopen or at least remain in Phase 2 or Phase 3 it needs to significantly expand its testing and contact tracing capacity. Even under our best-case scenario of high contact tracing effectiveness, the number of contact tracers the state currently employs is inadequate.

positive: Social Distancing Interventions in the United States: An Exploratory Investigation of Determinants and Impacts Background To combat the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States, many states and Washington DC enacted Stay-at-Home order and nonpharmaceutical mitigation interventions. This study examined the determinants of the timing to implement an intervention. Through an impact analysis, the study explored the effects of the interventions and the potential risks of removing them under the context of reopening the economy. Method A content analysis identified nine types of mitigation interventions and the timing at which states enacted these strategies. A proportional hazard model, a multiple-event survival model, and a random-effect spatial error panel model in conjunction with a robust method analyzing zero-inflated and skewed outcomes were employed in the data analysis. Findings To our knowledge, we provided in this article the first explicit analysis of the timing, determinants, and impacts of mitigation interventions for all states and Washington DC in the United States during the first five weeks of the pandemic. Unlike other studies that evaluate the Stay-at-Home order by using simulated data, the current study employed the real data of various case counts of Covid-19. The study obtained two meritorious findings: (1) states with a higher prevalence of Covid-19 cases per 10,000 population reacted more slowly to the outbreak, suggesting that some states may have missed the optimal timing to prevent the wide spread of the Covid-19 disease; and (2) of nine mitigation measures, three (non-essential business closure, large-gathering bans, and restaurant/bar limitations) showed positive impacts on reducing cumulative cases, new cases, and death rates across states. Interpretation The opposite direction of the prevalence rate on the timing of issuing the mitigation interventions partially explains why the Covid-19 caseload in the U.S. remains high. A swift implementation of social distancing is crucial-the key is not whether such measures should be taken but when. Because there is no preventive vaccine and because there are few potentially effective treatments, recent reductions in new cases and deaths must be due, in large part, to the social interventions delivered by states. The study suggests that the policy of reopening economy needs to be implemented carefully.

positive: Linking Statistics With Testing Policy to Manage COVID-19 in the Community OBJECTIVES: To determine the public health surveillance severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing volume needed, both for acute infection and seroprevalence. METHODS: Required testing volumes were developed using standard statistical methods based on test analytical performance, disease prevalence, desired precision, and population size. RESULTS: Widespread testing for individual health management cannot address surveillance needs. The number of people who must be sampled for public health surveillance and decision making, although not trivial, is potentially in the thousands for any given population or subpopulation, not millions. CONCLUSIONS: While the contributions of diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 have received considerable attention, concerns abound regarding the availability of sufficient testing capacity to meet demand. Different testing goals require different numbers of tests and different testing strategies; testing strategies for national or local disease surveillance, including monitoring of prevalence, receive less attention. Our clinical laboratory and diagnostic infrastructure are capable of incorporating required volumes for many local, regional, and national public health surveillance studies into their current and projected testing capacity. However, testing for surveillance requires careful design and randomization to provide meaningful insights.

positive: The Future of Business Education: A Commentary in the Shadow of the Covid-19 Pandemic The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted business schools worldwide mainly through the shift to emergency remote teaching. I provide a rudimentary framework to understand this transformation through recognizing the changes in the university, the business world and the student. This disruption is going to lead to a decade-long technology-led remaking of business education. Finally, I share a triphasic model that maps the evolution of online learning in business schools.

positive: Reopening Schools in the Time of Pandemic: Look to the School Nurses.

positive: Hand Hygiene, Mask-Wearing Behaviors and Its Associated Factors during the COVID-19 Epidemic: A Cross-Sectional Study among Primary School Students in Wuhan, China Although the emphasis on behaviors of hand-washing and mask-wearing was repeated during the pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), not everyone paid enough attention to this. A descriptive statistic was used to make sense of the status of hand hygiene and mask-wearing among primary school students in Wuhan, China. A binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors affecting the behaviors of hand-washing and mask-wearing. p < 0.05 (two-sides) was considered as significant at statistics. 42.05% of the primary school students showed a good behavior of hand-washing, while 51.60% had a good behavior of mask-wearing. Gender, grade, out-going history, father’s occupation, mother’s educational background, and the time filling out the survey were significantly associated with hand hygiene, whereas grade, mother’s educational background, and residence were associated with mask-wearing. The behaviors of hand-washing and mask-wearing among primary school students were influenced by gender, grade, shady is back tell a friendand other factors, therefore, parents should make efforts of behavior guidance whereas governments should enlarge medium publicity.

positive: Echoes of 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic in the COVID Pandemic Abstract The severe acute respiratory syndrome–related coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV2) pandemic that has engulfed the globe has had incredible effects on health care systems and economic activity. Social distancing and school closures have played a central role in public health efforts to counter the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID)-19 pandemic. The most recent global pandemic prior to COVID-19 was the 2009 pandemic, hemagglutinin type 1 and neuraminidase type 1 (H1N1) influenza. The course of events in 2009 offer some rich lessons that could be applied to the current COVID-19 pandemic. This commentary highlights some of the most relevant points and a discussion of possible outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2020 Elsevier Inc.

positive: What are the Underlying Transmission Patterns of COVID-19 Outbreak? - An Age-specific Social Contact Characterization Background: COVID-19 has spread to 6 continents. Now is opportune to gain a deeper understanding of what may have happened. The findings can help inform mitigation strategies in the disease-affected countries. Methods: In this work, we examine an essential factor that characterizes the disease transmission patterns: the interactions among people. We develop a computational model to reveal the interactions in terms of the social contact patterns among the population of different age-groups. We divide a city's population into seven age-groups: 0-6 years old (children); 7-14 (primary and junior high school students); 15-17 (high school students); 18-22 (university students); 23-44 (young/middle-aged people); 45-64 years old (middle-aged/elderly people); and 65 or above (elderly people). We consider four representative settings of social contacts that may cause the disease spread: (1) individual households; (2) schools, including primary/high schools as well as colleges and universities; (3) various physical workplaces; and (4) public places and communities where people can gather, such as stadiums, markets, squares, and organized tours. A contact matrix is computed to describe the contact intensity between different age-groups for each of the four settings. By integrating the four contact matrices with the next-generation matrix, we quantitatively characterize the underlying transmission patterns of COVID-19 among different populations. Findings: We focus our study on 6 representative cities in China: Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID-19, together with Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Shenzhen, which are five major cities from three key economic zones. The results show that the social contact-based analysis can readily explain the underlying disease transmission patterns as well as the associated risks (including both confirmed and unconfirmed cases). In Wuhan, the age-groups involving relatively intensive contacts in households and public/communities are dispersedly distributed. This can explain why the transmission of COVID-19 in the early stage mainly took place in public places and families in Wuhan. We estimate that Feb. 11, 2020 was the date with the highest transmission risk in Wuhan, which is consistent with the actual peak period of the reported case number (Feb. 4-14). Moreover, the surge in the number of new cases reported on Feb. 12-13 in Wuhan can readily be captured using our model, showing its ability in forecasting the potential/unconfirmed cases. We further estimate the disease transmission risks associated with different work resumption plans in these cities after the outbreak. The estimation results are consistent with the actual situations in the cities with relatively lenient control policies, such as Beijing, and those with strict control policies, such as Shenzhen. Interpretation: With an in-depth characterization of age-specific social contact-based transmission, the retrospective and prospective situations of the disease outbreak, including the past and future transmission risks, the effectiveness of different interventions, and the disease transmission risks of restoring normal social activities, are computationally analyzed and reasonably explained. The conclusions drawn from the study not only provide a comprehensive explanation of the underlying COVID-19 transmission patterns in China, but more importantly, offer the social contact-based risk analysis methods that can readily be applied to guide intervention planning and operational responses in other countries, so that the impact of COVID-19 pandemic can be strategically mitigated. Funding: General Research Fund of the Hong Kong Research Grants Council; Key Project Grants of the National Science Foundation of China.

positive: Individual-based simulation model for COVID-19 transmission in Daegu,Korea. Objectives The aims of this study were to obtain insights into the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in the city of Daegu, which accounted for 6,482 of the 9,241 confirmed cases in South Korea as of March 26, 2020, to predict the future spread, and to analyze the impact of school opening. Methods Using an individual-based model, we simulated the spread of COVID-19 in Daegu. An individual can be infected through close contact with infected people in a household, at work/school, and at religious and social gatherings. We created a synthetic population from census sample data. Then, 9,000 people were randomly selected from the entire population of Daegu and set as members of the hotspot of the Shincheonji church. We did not take into account population movements to and from other regions in South Korea. Results Using the individual-based model, the cumulative confirmed cases in Daegu through March 26, 2020, were reproduced, and it was confirmed that the hotspot had a different probability of infection than non-hotspot areas. For 3 scenarios (I: school closing, II: school opening after April 6, III: school opening after April 6 and the mean period from symptom onset to hospitalization increasing to 4.3 days), we predicted future changes in the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Daegu. Conclusion Compared to scenario I, it was found that in scenario III, the cumulative number of patients would increase by 107 and the date of occurrence of the last patient would be delayed by 92 days.

positive: Medical Student Development of K-12 Educational Resources During the COVID-19 Pandemic

positive: Age-stratified model of the COVID-19 epidemic to analyze the impact of relaxing lockdown measures: nowcasting and forecasting for Switzerland Compartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged [≥]80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place.

positive: Covid-19: Push to reopen schools risks new wave of infections, says Independent SAGE

positive: COVID-19: Social Media Sentiment Analysis on Reopening The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is the most talked topic in social media platforms in 2020. People are using social media such as Twitter to express their opinion and share information on a number of issues related to the COVID-19 in this stay at home order. In this paper, we investigate the sentiment and emotion of peoples in the United States on the subject of reopening. We choose the social media platform Twitter for our analysis and study the Tweets to discover the sentimental perspective, emotional perspective, and triggering words towards the reopening. During this COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have made some analysis on various social media dataset regarding lockdown and stay at home. However, in our analysis, we are particularly interested to analyse public sentiment on reopening. Our major finding is that when all states resorted to lockdown in March, people showed dominant emotion of fear, but as reopening starts people have less fear. While this may be true, due to this reopening phase daily positive cases are rising compared to the lockdown situation. Overall, people have a less negative sentiment towards the situation of reopening.

positive: Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in Controlling an Influenza A Outbreak in a School, Thailand, November 2007. Non-pharmaceutical interventions are often recommended as a component of integrated control measures for pandemic influenza, but the effectiveness needs to be evaluated. An outbreak of influenza A (H1N1) in northern Thailand in November 2007 offered opportunity to evaluate these interventions. An investigation was conducted to describe the outbreak, evaluate effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and assess surge capacity of health agencies. A descriptive study was conducted by interviewing students and personnel in a school. We characterized transmission of the virus in this outbreak and explored effects of control measures. We identified that 44% of the students and teachers developed influenza during the 19-day outbreak. Non-pharmaceutical interventions including school closure, setting up a field hospital and community health education were implemented. These measures possibly limited the outbreak spreading to other schools nearby. Surveillance and preparedness plans could be strengthened to respond to pandemic and inter-pandemic influenza by using non-pharmaceutical interventions.

positive: Seeking Normalcy as the Curve Flattens: Ethical Considerations for Pediatricians Managing Collateral Damage of COVID-19

positive: A Modelling Analysis of Strategies for Relaxing COVID-19 Social Distancing Abstract Background: The ability of countries to contain and control COVID-19 virus transmission via social distancing is critical in the absence of a vaccine. Early activation of robust measures has been shown to control the daily infection rate, and consequential pressure on the health care system. As countries begin to control COVID-19 spread an understanding of how to ease social distancing measures to prevent a rebound in cases and deaths is required. Methods: Using COVID-19 transmission data from the outbreak source in Hubei Province, China prior to activation of containment measures, we adapted an established individual-based simulation model of the city of Newcastle, Australia. Simulation of virus transmission in this model, with and without, social distancing measures activated permitted us to quantify social distancing effectiveness. Optimal strategies for relaxing social distancing were determined under two settings: with high numbers of daily cases, as in New York; and where early social distancing activation resulted in limited ongoing transmission, as in Perth, Australia. Findings: In countries where strong social distancing measures were activated after the COVID-19 virus had spread widely, our study found these measures are required to be maintained for significant periods before being eased, to return to a situation where daily case numbers become low. In countries where early responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have been highly successful, as in Australia, we show that a staged relaxation of social distancing prevents a rebound in cases. Interpretation: Modelling studies and direct observation have shown that robust and timely social distancing have the most effect in containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Questions arise as to the duration of strong social distancing measures, given they are highly disruptive to society and economic activity. This study demonstrates the necessity of holding robust social distancing in place until COVID-19 virus transmission has significantly decreased, and how they may then be safely eased.

positive: Challenges of COVID-19 in children in low- and middle-income countries As the coronavirus pandemic extends to low and middle income countries (LMICs), there are growing concerns about the risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in populations with high prevalence of comorbidities, the impact on health and economies more broadly and the capacity of existing health systems to manage the additional burden of COVID-19. The direct effects of COVID are less of a concern in children, who seem to be largely asymptomatic or to develop mild illness as occurs in high income countries; however children in LMICs constitute a high proportion of the population and may have a high prevalence of risk factors for severe lower respiratory infection such as HIV or malnutrition. Further diversion of resources from child health to address the pandemic among adults may further impact on care for children. Poor living conditions in LMICs including lack of sanitation, running water and overcrowding may facilitate transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The indirect effects of the pandemic on child health are of considerable concern, including increasing poverty levels, disrupted schooling, lack of access to school feeding schemes, reduced access to health facilities and interruptions in vaccination and other child health programs. Further challenges in LMICs include the inability to implement effective public health measures such as social distancing, hand hygiene, timely identification of infected people with self-isolation and universal use of masks. Lack of adequate personal protective equipment, especially N95 masks is a key concern for health care worker protection. While continued schooling is crucial for children in LMICs, provision of safe environments is especially challenging in overcrowded resource constrained schools. The current crisis is a harsh reminder of the global inequity in health in LMICs. The pandemic highlights key challenges to the provision of health in LMICs, but also provides opportunities to strengthen child health broadly in such settings.

positive: Pandemic pupils: COVID-19 and the impact on student paramedics The COVID-19 pandemic is having a profound effect on the learning of student paramedics. This commentary aims to explores how student paramedics have been affected by COVID-19 and seeks to identify the perceived impact of this experience.

positive: Children are unlikely to be the main drivers of the COVID-19 pandemic - A systematic review AIM: Many countries have closed schools and kindergartens to minimise COVID-19, but the role that children play in disease transmission is unclear. METHODS: A systematic literature review of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases and medRxiv/bioRxiv preprint servers to 11 May 2020 identified published and unpublished papers on COVID-19 transmission by children. RESULTS: We identified 700 scientific papers and letters and 47 full texts were studied in detail. Children accounted for a small fraction of COVID-19 cases and mostly had social contacts with peers or parents, rather than older people at risk of severe disease. Data on viral loads were scarce, but indicated that children may have lower levels than adults, partly because they often have fewer symptoms, and this should decrease the transmission risk. Household transmission studies showed that children were rarely the index case and case studies suggested that children with COVID-19 seldom caused outbreaks. However, it is highly likely that children can transmit the SARS-COV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, and even asymptomatic children can have viral loads. CONCLUSION: Children are unlikely to be the main drivers of the pandemic. Opening up schools and kindergartens is unlikely to impact COVID-19 mortality rates in older people.

positive: Strategies to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic The World Health Organization declared a COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020, when there were 4,293 confirmed cumulative deaths. By May 17, 2020 this number increased to 315,005. The risk of death is higher above the age of 60, but there are many deaths below 60 (for example, in Sao Paulo, 25%). Due to the lack of a vaccine or specific treatment, there are at least three types of interventions used in the first wave of this pandemic: increased alertness and hygiene (e.g. Sweden); identification and isolation of infected people and their contacts (e.g. South Korea); lockdown (e.g. Italy). These interventions are complementary. Choices of the right mix of interventions will vary from society to society and in the same society at different times. The search for a miracle drug is dangerous because it is based on the mistaken belief that any treatment option is better than "nothing". Brazilian society will not be able to maintain lockdown for a long period. Naturally, in the near future, regardless of the advice from scientists, doctors and authorities, commerce, services and schools will reopen. In order to implement any strategy aimed to control the pandemic and preserve the economy, the country needs leadership that centralizes and coordinates actions. Unfortunately, the Brazilian government is not fulfilling this role; on the contrary, it is a hindrance. This negative leadership and lack of coordination are causing many deaths and are severely damaging the lives of survivors by delaying the resuming of economic and social activities.

positive: Spread of Covid-19 in the United States is controlled As of May 1, 2020, the number of cases of Covid-19 in the US passed 1,062,446, interventions to slow down the spread of Covid-19 curtailed most social activities. Meanwhile, an economic crisis and resistance to the strict intervention measures are rising. Some researchers proposed intermittent social distancing that may drive the outbreak of Covid-19 into 2022. Questions arise about whether we should maintain or relax quarantine measures. We developed novel artificial intelligence and causal inference integrated methods for real-time prediction and control of nonlinear epidemic systems. We estimated that the peak time of the Covid-19 in the US would be April 24, 2020 and its outbreak in the US will be over by the end of July and reach 1,551,901 cases. We evaluated the impact of relaxing the current interventions for reopening economy on the spread of Covid-19. We provide tools for balancing the risks of workers and reopening economy.

positive: Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK Abstract There is concern regarding the impact that a global infectious disease pandemic might have, especially the economic impact in the current financial climate. However, preparedness planning concentrates more upon population health and maintaining a functioning health sector than on the wider economic impact. We developed a single country Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of pandemic influenza (PI) and associated policies. While the context for this development was the United Kingdom, there are lessons to be drawn for application of this methodology, as well as indicative results, to other contexts. Disease scenarios were constructed from an epidemiological model which estimated case fatality rates (mild, moderate and severe) as 0.06%, 0.18% and 0.35%. A clinical attack rate of 35% was also used to produce influenza scenarios, together with preparedness policies, including antivirals and school closure, and the possible prophylactic absence of workers. UK cost estimates (in Sterling) are presented, together with relative percentage impacts applicable to similar large economies. Percentage/cost estimates suggest PI would reduce GDP by 0.3% (£3.5bn), 0.4% (£5bn) and 0.6% (£7.4bn) respectively for the three disease scenarios. However, the impact of PI itself is smaller than disease mitigation policies: combining school closure with prophylactic absenteeism yields percentage/cost effects of 1.1% (£14.7bn), 1.3% (£16.3bn) and 1.4% (£18.5bn) respectively for the three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis shows little variability with changes in disease parameters but notable changes with variations in school closure and prophylactic absenteeism. The most severe sensitivity scenario results in a 2.9% (£37.4bn), 3.2% (£41.4bn) and 3.7% (£47.5bn) loss to GDP respectively for the three scenarios.

positive: Rethinking ‘essential’ and ‘nonessential’: the developmental paediatrician’s COVID-19 response While terms such as ‘essential’ and ‘nonessential’ used amidst the COVID-19 pandemic may serve a practical purpose, they also pose a risk of obstructing our view of the harmful indirect health consequences of this crisis. SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths in children are minimal compared to adults, but the pandemic impacts other ‘essential’ aspects of children’s health including child development and the associated areas of paediatric behaviour, mental health, and maltreatment. Alongside the management of severe SARS-CoV-2 cases in emergency rooms and intensive care units, continuing to care for children with developmental disabilities must also be concurrently championed as ‘essential’ during this crisis. The potentially devastating lifelong effects of the pandemic and isolation on an already vulnerable population demand that action be taken now. Video conferences and phone calls are ‘essential’ instruments we can use to continue to provide quality care for our patients.

positive: Trajectories of School Recovery After a Natural Disaster: Risk and Protective Factors Disasters may have significant and lasting impacts on educational programs and academic achievement, yet the examination of differing patterns of school recovery after disasters is understudied. This paper focused on two aims: (i) identification of school academic recovery trajectories; and (ii) examination of potential risk factors associated with these trajectories. We used latent class growth analysis to identify school academic recovery trajectories for a cohort of 462 Texas public schools that were in the path of Hurricane Ike in 2008. Using Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills (TAKS) data from 2005 to 2011, we found that attendance and percent of economically disadvantaged youth emerged as significant risk factors for two identified academic recovery trajectories (High‐Stable and Low‐Interrupted). Higher levels of economically disadvantaged youth were associated with lower likelihood of falling in the High‐Stable trajectory, relative to the Low‐Interrupted trajectory. Higher levels of attendance were associated with higher likelihood of membership in the High‐Stable trajectory, relative to the Low‐Interrupted trajectory. These findings are consistent with the notion that disasters do not affect all people or communities equally. Findings highlight the need for policy initiatives that focus on low performing schools, as these schools are at highest risk for adverse outcomes post‐disaster.

positive: Event-specific interventions to minimize COVID-19 transmission Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic with over 11 million cases worldwide. Currently there is no treatment and no vaccine. Interventions such as hand washing, masks, social distancing, and "social bubbles" are used to limit community transmission, but it is challenging to choose the best interventions for a given activity. Here, we provide a quantitative framework to determine which interventions are likely to have the most impact in which settings. We introduce the concept of "event R", the expected number of new infections due to the presence of a single infected individual at an event. We obtain a fundamental relationship between event R and four parameters: transmission intensity, duration of exposure, the proximity of individuals, and the degree of mixing. We use reports of small outbreaks to establish event R and transmission intensity in a range of settings. We identify principles that guide whether physical distancing, masks and other barriers to transmission, or social bubbles will be most effective. We outline how this information can be obtained and used to re-open economies with principled measures to reduce COVID-19 transmission.

positive: How risk communication could have reduced controversy about school closures in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there has been consistent evidence indicating that school closures have only limited efficacy in reducing community transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the question of whether children should be kept home from school has attracted extensive and often divisive public debate in Australia. In this article we analyse the factors that drove high levels of concern among parents, teachers and the public and led to both demands for school closures in late March 2020, and to many parents' reluctance to return their children to school in May 2020. We discuss how the use of well-established principles of risk communication might have reduced much of this community concern. Then we set out a range of practical suggestions for communication practices that build trust and hence diminish concerns in relation to managing schools over the long term of the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: Extensions of the SEIR Model for the Analysis of Tailored Social Distancing and Tracing Approaches to Cope with COVID-19 In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide face the challenge of designing tailored measures of epidemic control to provide reliable health protection while allowing more societal and economic activity. In this paper, we propose an extension of the epidemiological SEIR model to enable a detailed analysis of commonly discussed tailored measures of epidemic control - among them group-specific protection and the use of tracing apps. We introduce groups into the SEIR model that may differ both, in their underlying parameters as well as in their behavioral response to public health interventions. We allow for different infectiousness parameters within and across groups, different asymptomatic, hospitalization, and lethality rates, as well as different take-up rates of tracing apps. Our results visualize the sharp trade-offs between different goals of epidemic control, namely a low death toll, avoiding overload of the health system, and a short duration of the epidemic. We show that a combination of tailored mechanisms, e.g., the protection of vulnerable groups together with a “trace & isolate” approach, can be effective in preventing a high death toll. Protection of vulnerable groups without further measures requires unrealistically strict isolation. A key insight is that high compliance is critical for the effectiveness of a “trace & isolate” approach. Our model allows to analyze the interplay of group-specific social distancing and tracing also beyond our case study in scenarios with a large number of groups reflecting, e.g., sectoral, regional, or age differentiation and group-specific take-up rates for tracing apps.

positive: Impact of population mask wearing on Covid-19 post lockdown COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV2 is a rapidly spreading global pandemic. Although precise transmission routes and dynamics are unknown, SARS-CoV2 is thought primarily to spread via contagious respiratory droplets. Unlike with SARS-CoV, maximal viral shedding occurs in the early phase of illness, and this is supported by models that suggest 40-80% of transmission events occur from pre- and asymptomatic individuals. One widely-discussed strategy to limit transmission of SARS-CoV2, particularly from presymptomatic individuals, has been population-level wearing of masks. Modelling for pandemic influenza suggests some benefit in reducing total numbers infected with even 50% mask-use. COVID-19 has a higher hospitalization and mortality rate than influenza, and the impacts on these parameters, and critically, at what point in the pandemic trajectory mask-use might exert maximal benefit are completely unknown. We derived a simplified SIR model to investigate the effects of near-universal mask-use on COVID-19 assuming 8 or 16% mask efficacy. We decided to model, in particular, the impact of masks on numbers of critically-ill patients and cumulative mortality, since these are parameters that are likely to have the most severe consequences in the COVID-19 pandemic. Whereas mask use had a relatively minor benefit on critical-care and mortality rates when transmissibility (Reff) was high, the reduction on deaths was dramatic as the effective R approached 1, as might be expected after aggressive social-distancing measures such as wide-spread lockdowns. One major concern with COVID-19 is its potential to overwhelm healthcare infrastructures, even in resource-rich settings, with one third of hospitalized patients requiring critical-care. We incorporated this into our model, increasing death rates for when critical-care resources have been exhausted. Our simple model shows that modest efficacy of masks could avert substantial mortality in this scenario. Importantly, the effects on mortality became hyper-sensitive to mask-wearing as the effective R approaches 1, i.e. near the tipping point of when the infection trajectory is expected to revert to exponential growth, as would be expected after effective lockdown. Our model suggests that mask-wearing might exert maximal benefit as nations plan their post-lockdown strategies and suggests that mask-wearing should be included in further more sophisticated models of the current pandemic.

positive: Should Schools Reopen Early or Late? - Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Children

positive: Comparison of SARS-CoV-2 Exit Strategies Building Blocks We consider and compare various exit strategy building blocks and key measures to mitigate the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, some already proposed as well as improvements we suggest. Our comparison is based on a computerized simulation integrating accumulated SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological knowledge. Our results stress the importance of immediate on-symptom isolation of suspected cases and household members, and the beneficial effects of prompt testing capacity. Our findings expose significant epidemic-suppression differences among strategies with seemingly similar economic cost stressing the importance of not just the portion of population and business that is released, but also the pattern. The most effective building blocks are the ones that integrate several base strategies - they allow to release large portions of the population while still achieving diminishing viral spread. However, it may come with a price on somewhat more complex schemes. For example, our simulations indicate that dividing the population into two groups completely released except for taking turns on a long weekend (Fri-Tue) self-isolation once every two weeks, while protecting the 5% most sensitive population would reduce R below 1 even if ten percent of the population does not follow it. We further simulate the contrasting approach of a stratified population release in a hope to achieve herd immunity, which for the time being seems inferior to other suggested building blocks. Knowing the tradeoff between building blocks could help optimize exit strategies to be more effective and suitable for a particular area or country, while maximizing human life as well as economic value. Given our results, we believe that pandemic can be controlled within a reasonable amount of time and at a reasonable socio-economic burden.

positive: Ready to Go? Schools’ Preparedness for Teaching and Learning Within a One-to-One Program During the years there has been an increasing number of one-to-one programs around the world. In such programs all students are equipped with portable devices, such as laptops, tablets, smartphones for learning purposes. Even if these initiatives are increasing, our knowledge of the impact of such digital transformation of education is still little studied. Based on data from a three years longitudinal study on a large-scale implementation of Chromebooks in a municipality, this paper highlights teachers’ experiences. Key findings suggest that this initiative has been successful when it comes to the administrative and technical implementation of the Chromebooks, but there is still a way to go to transform pedagogical practices to enhance student-active learning supported by the Chromebooks.

positive: Covid-19: medical schools are urged to fast-track final year students

positive: School Nurses: Living the Framework During COVID-19.

positive: Are We Ready for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Arriving at Schools?

positive: The impact of unplanned school closure on children's social contact: Rapid evidence review Background Emergency school closures are often used as public health interventions during infectious disease outbreaks in an attempt to minimise the spread of infection. However, if children continue to mix with others outside the home during the closures, these measures are unlikely to be effective. Objectives This review aimed to summarise existing literature on children's activities and contacts made outside the home during unplanned school closures. Methods We searched four databases from inception to February 2020 for relevant literature. Main findings were extracted. Results 3,343 citations were screened and 19 included in the review. Activities and social contacts appeared to decrease during closures but contact was still common. All studies reported children leaving the house or being looked after by non-household members. There was some evidence that older child age and parental disagreement with closure were predictive of children leaving the house, and mixed evidence regarding the relationship between infection status and leaving the home. Parental agreement with closure was generally high, but some parents disagreed due to perceived low risk of infection and practical issues regarding childcare and financial impact. Conclusions Evidence suggests that many children continue to leave the house and mix with others during school closures despite public health recommendations to avoid social contact. This review of behaviour during unplanned school closures could be used to improve infectious disease modelling.

positive: [Quarantine Alone or in Combination with Other Public Health Measures to Control COVID-19: A Rapid Review (Review)]. BACKGROUND COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) is a new, rapidly emerging zoonotic infectious disease, that was reported to the World Health Organization for the first time on 31 December 2019. Currently, no effective pharmacological interventions or vaccines are available to treat or prevent COVID-19, therefore nonpharmacological public health measures are more in focus. OBJECTIVES The aim was to assess the effects of quarantine - alone or in combination with other measures - during coronavirus outbreaks. METHODS Because of the current COVID-19 pandemic, WHO commissioned a rapid review. To save time, the method of systematic reviews was slightly and with caution modified. This publication is a summary of the most important aspects of the rapid review, translated into German by members of the WHO Collaborating Centre at the Danube University Krems (Austria). RESULTS Overall, 29 studies were included. Ten modeling studies focused on COVID-19, 4 observational studies and 15 modeling studies focused on SARS and MERS. The modeling studies consistently reported a benefit of the simulated quarantine measures. For example, the models estimated that quarantine of people exposed to confirmed or suspected cases of COVID-19 prevented between 44 and 81% of the cases that would otherwise have happened and 31 to 63% of the deaths, when compared to no such measures. In regard to costs, the earlier the quarantine measures are implemented, the greater the cost savings will be. CONCLUSION Our confidence in the evidence is very limited. This is mainly because the COVID-19 studies based their models on the limited data that have been available in the early weeks of the pandemic and made different assumptions about the virus. The studies of SARS and MERS are not completely generalizable to COVID-19. Despite only having limited evidence, all the studies found quarantine to be important for controlling the spread of severe coronavirus diseases. Looking to the coming months, in order to maintain the best possible balance of measures, decision makers must continue to constantly monitor the outbreak situation and the impact of the measures they implement.

positive: Teaching Professional Formation in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Association of American Medical Colleges has called for a temporary suspension of clinical teaching activities for medical students. Planning for the continued involvement of learners in patient care during this pandemic should include teaching learners professional formation. The authors provide an ethical framework to guide such teaching, based on the ethical principle of beneficence and the professional virtues of courage and self-sacrifice from professional ethics in medicine. The authors show that these concepts support the conclusion that learners are ethically obligated to accept reasonable, but not unreasonable, risk. Based on this ethical framework, the authors provide an account of the process of teaching professional formation that medical educators and academic leaders should implement. Medical educators and academic leaders should embrace the opportunity that the COVID-19 pandemic presents for teaching professional formation. Learners should acquire the conceptual vocabulary of professional formation. Learners should recognize that risk of infection from patients is unavoidable. Learners should become aware of established ethical standards for professional responsibility during epidemics from the history of medicine. Learners should master understandable fear. Medical educators and academic leaders should ensure that didactic teaching of professional formation continues when it becomes justified to end learners’ participation in the processes of patient care; topics should include the professionally responsible management of scarce medical resources. The COVID-19 pandemic will not be the last major infectious disease that puts learners at risk. Professional ethics in medicine provides powerful conceptual tools that can be used as an ethical framework to guide medical educators to teach learners, who will bear leadership responsibilities in responses to future pandemics, professional formation.

positive: Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy? We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.

positive: Advocating for Children During the COVID-19 School Closures

positive: Covid-19 and its impact on child and adolescent psychiatry - a German and personal perspective. As in other European countries, the current Covid-19 pandemic has not only massively restricted normal life in Germany, it is also having a significant effect on medical treatment, particularly in the areas of child and adolescent psychiatric care, as well as on university teaching. The federal structure of Germany and epidemiological differences between individual federal states has had a crucial impact on the regulations issued and their success. During the last number of weeks, tele-child-psychiatry and psychotherapy have increased, and outpatient services have been used cautiously and sparingly. Medical staff numbers will be augmented by doctors and nurses returning from retirement and also by medical students on a voluntary basis. The federal government has warned that discrepancies in education will increase due to the closure of schools. Questions of child protection are currently of particular importance in the context of such closures and the non-availability of day-care centres.

positive: Education, the science of learning, and the COVID-19 crisis In the COVID-19 crisis, the science of learning has two different responsibilities: first, to offer guidance about how best to deal with the impact of the current situation, including lockdown and home-schooling; and second, to consider bigger questions about what this large-scale educational experiment might mean for the future. The first part of this Viewpoint summarises advice for parents on mental health, and on becoming stand-in-teachers. The second part, taking the longer view, considers the potential negative impact of the COVID-19 crisis in increasing inequality in education; but also the potential positive impact of driving innovations in technology use for educating children.

positive: Effects of Hand Hygiene Campaigns on Incidence of Laboratory-confirmed Influenza and Absenteeism in Schoolchildren, Cairo, Egypt To evaluate the effectiveness of an intensive hand hygiene campaign on reducing absenteeism caused by influenza-like illness (ILI), diarrhea, conjunctivitis, and laboratory-confirmed influenza, we conducted a randomized control trial in 60 elementary schools in Cairo, Egypt. Children in the intervention schools were required to wash hands twice each day, and health messages were provided through entertainment activities. Data were collected on student absenteeism and reasons for illness. School nurses collected nasal swabs from students with ILI, which were tested by using a qualitative diagnostic test for influenza A and B. Compared with results for the control group, in the intervention group, overall absences caused by ILI, diarrhea, conjunctivitis, and laboratory-confirmed influenza were reduced by 40%, 30%, 67%, and 50%, respectively (p<0.0001 for each illness). An intensive hand hygiene campaign was effective in reducing absenteeism caused by these illnesses.

positive: Dynamics of COVID-19 under social distancing measures are driven by transmission network structure In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing is being used worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. The impact of these measures has been inconsistent, with some regions rapidly nearing disease elimination and others seeing delayed peaks or nearly flat epidemic curves. Here we build a stochastic epidemic model to examine the effects of COVID-19 clinical progression and transmission network structure on the outcomes of social distancing interventions. We find that the strength of within-household transmission is a critical determinant of success, governing the timing and size of the epidemic peak, the rate of decline, individual risks of infection, and the success of partial relaxation measures. The structure of residual external connections, driven by workforce participation and essential businesses, interacts to determine outcomes. These findings can improve future predictions of the timescale and efficacy of interventions needed to control similar outbreaks, and highlight the need for better quantification and control of household transmission.

positive: A letter to the editor: the impact of COVID-19 on intercalating and non-clinical medical students in the UK.

positive: COVID-19 pharmacologic treatments for children: research priorities and approach to pediatric studies Clinical trials of pharmacologic treatments of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are being rapidly designed and implemented in adults. Children are often not considered during development of novel treatments for infectious diseases until very late. Although children appear to have a lower risk compared to adults of severe COVID-19 disease, a substantial number of children globally will benefit from pharmacologic treatments. It will be reasonable to extrapolate efficacy of most treatments from adult trials to children. Pediatric trials should focus on characterizing a treatment’s pharmacokinetics, optimal dose and safety, across the age spectrum. These trials should use an adaptive design to efficiently add or remove arms in what will be a rapidly evolving treatment landscape, and should involve a large number of sites across the globe in a collaborative effort to facilitate efficient implementation. All stakeholders must commit to equitable access to any effective, safe treatment for children everywhere.

positive: The impact of media coverage on the transmission dynamics of human influenza BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need to understand how the provision of information influences individual risk perception and how this in turn shapes the evolution of epidemics. Individuals are influenced by information in complex and unpredictable ways. Emerging infectious diseases, such as the recent swine flu epidemic, may be particular hotspots for a media-fueled rush to vaccination; conversely, seasonal diseases may receive little media attention, despite their high mortality rate, due to their perceived lack of newness. METHODS: We formulate a deterministic transmission and vaccination model to investigate the effects of media coverage on the transmission dynamics of influenza. The population is subdivided into different classes according to their disease status. The compartmental model includes the effect of media coverage on reporting the number of infections as well as the number of individuals successfully vaccinated. RESULTS: A threshold parameter (the basic reproductive ratio) is analytically derived and used to discuss the local stability of the disease-free steady state. The impact of costs that can be incurred, which include vaccination, education, implementation and campaigns on media coverage, are also investigated using optimal control theory. A simplified version of the model with pulse vaccination shows that the media can trigger a vaccinating panic if the vaccine is imperfect and simplified messages result in the vaccinated mixing with the infectives without regard to disease risk. CONCLUSIONS: The effects of media on an outbreak are complex. Simplified understandings of disease epidemiology, propogated through media soundbites, may make the disease significantly worse.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 Impact on Online Teaching Methodologies and the Ed-Tech Sector: Smile and Learn Platform Case Study In the past few years, the use of new technologies and digital, educational material has been increasing. Owing to the situation brought about in Spain by the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, schools have closed and families were asked to confine at home since March 2020. During this period there has been a need of resources to be made available to the families and teachers so that they would be able to continue their teaching practice. Consequently, this study analyzes the importance of online methodologies and usage tendency of an educational resource example: The Smile and Learn platform. Thereby, the study presents the different models implemented to support education and its impact in the use of the platform. The analyzed outcomes and their effect on education are discussed.

positive: [Nursing Education Strategies During the COVID-19 Epidemic]. The ongoing new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, which arose at the end of 2019, poses a severe challenge to world public health systems. Frontline medical staffs bear a great burden to provide health care services. The Taiwan government has taken rapid and decisive actions to reduce the risk of community transmission and campus cluster infection. Nursing education includes both classroom teaching and clinical practicum components. In preparing for their practicum, students must learn not only fundamental nursing care knowledge but also basic knowledge on emerging infectious diseases. All schools nationwide have complied with the Ministry of Education order to postpone the opening of the fall semester in response to the rapid evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Campus epidemic prevention measures were implemented through student counseling networks, and flexible teaching strategies, including online teaching and distance teaching, were implemented to protect the learning rights of students. This paper explores the strategies implemented in response to emerging infectious diseases in nursing education based on the core values of professional nursing. Examining the precautions taken at campuses and teaching strategies adopted in response to the COVID 19 pandemic may provide valuable insights that may be applied to the future development of nursing education.

positive: Variation in Covid-19 Cases Across New York City The number of confirmed COVID -19 cases, relative to the population size, has varied greatly throughout the United States and, even, within the same city. In different zip codes in New York City, the epicenter of the epidemic, the number of cases per 100,000 residents has varied between 437 and 4227, i.e., in a 1:10 ratio. To guide policy decisions regarding containment and reopening of the economy, schools, and other institutions, it is vital to identify which factors drive this large variation. This paper reports on a statistical study of the incidence variation across New York City, conducted with data at zip code granularity. Among many socio-economical and demographic measures considered, the average household size emerges as the single most important explanatory variable: an increase of the average household size by one member accounts, in our final model specification, for at least 876 cases, a full 23% of the span of incidence numbers, at a 95% confidence level. The percentage of the population above the age of 65, as well as that below the poverty line, are additional indicators with a significant impact on the case incidence rate, along with their interaction term. Contrary to common belief, population density, per se, fails to have a significantly positive impact. Indeed, population densities and case incidence rates are negatively correlated, with a -33% correlation coefficient. Our model specification is anchored on a basic and established epidemiological model that explains the importance of household sizes on R0, the basic reproductive number of an epidemic. Our findings support implemented and proposed policies to quarantine pre-acute and post-acute patients, , as well as nursing home admission policies.

positive: A model of COVID-19 transmission and control on university campuses In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, institutions of higher education in almost every nation closed in the first half of 2020. University administrators are now facing decisions about how to safely return students, staff and faculty to campus. To provide a framework to evaluate various strategies, we developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type of deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among students, staff and faculty. Our goals were to support the immediate pandemic planning at our own university, and to provide a flexible modeling framework to inform the planning efforts at similar academic institutions. We parameterized the model for our institution, Emory University, a medium-size private university in Atlanta, Georgia. Control strategies of isolation and quarantine are initiated by screening (regardless of symptoms) or testing (of symptomatic individuals). We explore a range of screening and testing frequencies and perform a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of input parameters. We find that monthly and weekly screening can reduce cumulative incidence by 42% and 80% in students, respectively, while testing with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay results in an 88%, 79% and 67% reduction in cumulative incidence in students over the semester, respectively. Similar reductions are observed among staff and faculty. A testing strategy requires far fewer diagnostic assays to be implemented than a screening assay. Our intervention model is conservative in that we assume a fairly high reproductive number that is not reduced through social distancing measures. We find that community-introduction of SARS-CoV-2 infection onto campus can be controlled with effective testing, isolation, contract tracing and quarantine, but that cases, hospitalization, and (in some scenarios) deaths may still occur. In addition to estimating health impacts, this model can help to predict the resource requirements in terms of diagnostic capacity and isolation/quarantine facilities associated with different strategies.

positive: Strategies to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. The World Health Organization declared a COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020, when there were 4,293 confirmed cumulative deaths. By May 17, 2020 this number increased to 315,005. The risk of death is higher above the age of 60, but there are many deaths below 60 (for example, in Sao Paulo, 25%). Due to the lack of a vaccine or specific treatment, there are at least three types of interventions used in the first wave of this pandemic: increased alertness and hygiene (e.g. Sweden); identification and isolation of infected people and their contacts (e.g. South Korea); lockdown (e.g. Italy). These interventions are complementary. Choices of the right mix of interventions will vary from society to society and in the same society at different times. The search for a miracle drug is dangerous because it is based on the mistaken belief that any treatment option is better than "nothing". Brazilian society will not be able to maintain lockdown for a long period. Naturally, in the near future, regardless of the advice from scientists, doctors and authorities, commerce, services and schools will reopen. In order to implement any strategy aimed to control the pandemic and preserve the economy, the country needs leadership that centralizes and coordinates actions. Unfortunately, the Brazilian government is not fulfilling this role; on the contrary, it is a hindrance. This negative leadership and lack of coordination are causing many deaths and are severely damaging the lives of survivors by delaying the resuming of economic and social activities.

positive: How Have COVID-19 Isolation Policies Affected Young People’s Mental Health? – Evidence From Chinese College Students The breakout of COVID-19 has brought about huge influence on people’s physic and mental health. This paper aims to investigate the mental health status of young people living in isolation due to the policy response to Coronavirus disease. Nine hundred ninety-two Chinese college students (Mage = 19.45, SD = 1.41) were recruited to finish an online survey in the period of self-isolation. Seven dimensions of psychological well-being were measured, including mental status, knowledge of stress management, behavioral patterns, risk perception, academic stress, family relationships, and peer relationships. Results of cluster analysis indicated that young individuals’ mental status can be divided into three groups: high-risk (n = 61, Mage = 19.26, SD = 1.32), medium-risk (n = 627, Mage = 19.43, SD = 1.38), and low-risk (n = 304, Mage = 19.54, SD = 1.49). Moreover, results of multiple regression showed that the isolation policy has had a complex influence on the symptoms of obsessive-compulsive disorder [F(12, 979) = 44.894, p < 0.001], fear [F(12, 979) = 30.776, p < 0.001], hypochondria [F(12, 979) = 22.530, p < 0.001], depression [F(12, 979) = 39.022, p < 0.001], and neurasthenia [F(12, 979) = 45.735, p < 0.001] via various factors. This paper also proposes a six-step intervention strategy to alleviate young people’s psychological problems while in isolation. It provides practical insights into the psychological interventions in face of the global threat.

positive: Information Sharing in the School Setting During a Public Health Emergency The Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act of 1974 is the federal law that protects the privacy of personally identifiable information from student education records and applies to all education entities that receive funding under any program administered by the U.S. Department of Education. The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 is the federal law that establishes privacy requirements for patients' protected health information. Together these privacy laws establish rules that guide school nurses in the sharing of student information, even in times of public health emergencies. The U.S. Department of Education and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services have issued special updates to privacy laws in response to the Novel Coronavirus Disease providing certain waivers of typical privacy requirements and direction to allow the sharing of information during this public health emergency. The purpose of this article is to briefly review the privacy laws as they relate to schools, as well as to provide an overview of the recent waivers to assist school nurses, school administrators, healthcare professionals, and public health agencies in protecting the health and safety of students during this current public health emergency.

positive: Estimating the nationwide transmission risk of measles in US schools and impacts of vaccination and supplemental infection control strategies BACKGROUND: The spread of airborne infectious diseases such as measles is a critical public health concern. The U.S. was certified measles-free in 2000, but the number of measles cases has increased in recent years breaking the record of the nationwide annual number of cases since 1992. Although the characteristics of schools have made them one of the most vulnerable environments during infection outbreaks, the transmission risk of measles among students is not completely understood. We aimed to evaluate how three factors influence measles transmission in schools: personal (vaccination), social (compartmentalizing), and building systems (ventilation, purification, and filtration). METHODS: We used a combination of a newly developed multi-zone transient Wells-Riley approach, a nationwide representative School Building Archetype (SBA) model, and a Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate measles risk among U.S. students. We compared our risk results with the range of reported transmission rates of measles in school outbreaks to validate the risk model. We also investigated the effectiveness of vaccination and ten supplemental infection control scenarios for reducing the risk of measles transmission among students. RESULTS: Our best nationwide estimate of measles transmission risk in U.S. schools were 3.5 and 32% among all (both unvaccinated and immunized) and unvaccinated students, respectively. The results showed the transmission risk of measles among unvaccinated students is > 70 times higher than properly immunized ones. We also demonstrated that the transmission risk of measles in primary schools (assuming teacher self-contained classrooms) is less than secondary schools (assuming departmentalized systems). For building-level interventions, schools with ductless-with-air-filter and ductless-without-air-filter systems have the lowest and highest transmission risks of measles, respectively. Finally, our simulation showed that infection control strategies could cut the average number of infected cases among all students in half when a combination of advanced air filtration, ventilation, and purification was adopted in the modeled schools. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the primary importance of vaccination for reducing the risk of measles transmission among students. Yet, additional and significant risk reduction can be achieved through compartmentalizing students and enhancing building ventilation and filtration systems.

positive: Remote Learning in the Time of COVID‐19 With the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 in the U.S., medical schools across the nation have taken measures to protect the health and safety of their students. Notably, most schools have elected to suspend clinical experiences for medical students as the pandemic evolves. Many schools have demonstrated creativity and adaptability by developing online, non‐clinical electives for their students to engage in.

positive: Medical students’ preference for returning to the clinical setting during the COVID‐19 pandemic OBJECTIVES: The Covid‐19 pandemic has led to widespread disruptions in the clinical education of medical students. In managing students’ return to the clinical setting, medical schools face the challenge of balancing education, service, and risk considerations. To compound this challenge, medical students may prefer not to re‐enter during a period of great uncertainty, leading to substantive downstream sequelae on individual, institutional, and national levels. Understanding students’ views on resuming clinical experiences, therefore, is an important consideration. The purpose of this study was to assess medical students’ preference for re‐entering the clinical setting during a pandemic, and to explore personal and environmental characteristics associated with that preference. METHODS: We conducted an electronic survey of currently enrolled medical students of Duke‐NUS Medical School in Singapore, less than a month into the pandemic. Survey items were aligned with a conceptual framework related to medical students’ preference for returning to the clinical setting. The framework consisted of three domains: 1) non‐modifiable demographic information, 2) factors thought to be modifiable through the course of medical education, including burnout, tolerance for ambiguity, motivation, and professionalism, and 3) students’ perception of Covid‐19 infection risk to self. RESULTS: Approximately one third of 179 students preferred not to return to the clinical setting. Results of a multivariable analysis indicated that compared to this group, the two‐thirds of students favouring return showed evidence of greater autonomous (or internal) motivation, a greater sense of professional responsibility, and a lower self‐perception of harbouring risk to patients. CONCLUSIONS: Students’ preference regarding return to the clinical environment stems from the interplay of several key factors, and is substantively associated with perceptions of professional responsibility and their own potential risk to the healthcare system. Mindfully considering and addressing these issues may help medical schools in their preparation for returning students to the clinical setting.

positive: COVID-19 as a catalyst for educational change The massive damages of COVID-19 may be incalculable. But in the spirit of never wasting a good crisis, COVID-19 represents an opportunity to rethink education. The rethinking should not be about improving schooling, but should focus on the what, how, and where of learning. This article highlights some of the questions that schools can ask as they reimagine post-COVID education.

positive: School Nurses on the Front Lines of Healthcare: The Approach to Maintaining Student Health and Wellness During COVID-19 School Closures In response to the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most states in the United States enacted statewide school closures, ranging in duration from 1 month to the remainder of the academic year. The extended durations of these closures present unique challenges, as many families rely on the school as a source of physical activity, mental health services, psychosocial support, child care, and food security. While the school doors may be closed, the school nurse can still play a vital role in emergency management. This article discusses challenges and proposes solutions to maintaining student health and wellness during extended school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, it is inevitable that until a vaccine for coronavirus is developed and readily available, many schools will continue to see future closures, though likely for shorter periods of time, as they respond to local outbreaks.

positive: Suspending Medical Student Clerkships Due to COVID-19 Medical schools around the world have been grappling with how to adapt undergraduate medical curricula in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our institution made the decision to suspend all clinical clerkships the day before the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) recommended to US medical schools a similar suspension of “medical student participation in any activities that involved patient contact.” This manuscript describes the rapid evolution in our decision-making as we weighed various information, values, and priorities in the face of the emerging public health crisis. We discuss how a compromised learning environment and concerns about student, patient, and the public health led to the suspension. We also consider next steps as we move forward in this uncertain time.

positive: COVID-19 and Schools Closure: Implications for School Nurses.

positive: The social benefits of private infectious disease-risk mitigation Does society benefit from private measures to mitigate infectious disease risks? Since mitigation reduces both peak prevalence and the number of people who fall ill, the answer might appear to be yes. But mitigation also prolongs epidemics and therefore the time susceptible people engage in activities to avoid infection. These avoidance activities come at a cost—in lost production or consumption, for example. Whether private mitigation yields net social benefits depends on the social weight given to the costs of illness and illness avoidance, now and into the future. We show that, for a large class of infectious diseases, private risk mitigation is socially beneficial. However, in cases where society discounts the future at either very low or very high rates relative to private individuals, or where it places a low weight on the private cost of illness, the social cost of illness under proportionate mixing (doing nothing) may be lower than the social cost of illness under preferential mixing (avoiding infectious individuals). That is, under some circumstances, society would prefer shorter, more intense epidemics without avoidance costs over longer, less intense epidemics with avoidance costs. A sobering (although not surprising) implication of this is that poorer societies should be expected to promote less private disease-risk mitigation than richer societies.

positive: A blueprint for recovery for the postcoronavirus (COVID‐19) world Novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is changing society. In the last several weeks, infections and deaths have accumulated, even as we attempt to 'shelter in place' and stay 'healthy at home'. This unprecedented time has influenced behavior and permitted much contemplation, gratitude and prayer. Our thoughts during this time have focused on our emergence from the pandemic and what reopening may look like in the post-coronavirus world. Reopening will benefit from the acronym "RPM", an acronym I (CSM) teach my students for management of dental patients who suffer from a variety of illnesses and infections. Here, the 'R" stands for risk assessment and reduction, the first step in the sequence. The 'P' stands for prevention, and 'M' stands for manage the problem. If 'R' and 'P' are well conceived and implemented, often there is no need to apply 'M'.

positive: School attendance during a pandemic When officials relax school attendance requirements as a prophylactic measure against a pandemic, students of higher prior performance take more absences, while students of lower prior performance keep going to school. Prior performance is positively associated with neighborhood income.

positive: Health measures for the reopening of schools, colleges, high schools and nurseries

positive: Cost Benefit Analysis of Limited Reopening Relative to a Herd Immunity Strategy or Shelter in Place for SARS-CoV-2 in the United States BACKGROUND: Fierce debate about the health and financial tradeoffs presented by different COVID-19 pandemic mitigation strategies highlights the need for rigorous quantitative evaluation of policy options. OBJECTIVE: To quantify the economic value of the costs and benefits of a policy of continued limited reopening with social distancing relative to alternative COVID-19 response strategies in the United States. DESIGN: We estimate the number and value of quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained from mortality averted, with a value of $125,000 per QALY, and compare these benefits to the associated costs in terms of plausible effects on US GDP under a policy of continued limited reopening with social distancing relative to a policy of full reopening toward herd immunity. Using the same QALY value assumptions, we further evaluate cost-effectiveness of a return to Shelter-in-Place relative to a policy of limited reopening. SETTING: United States MEASUREMENTS: QALY and cost as percent of GDP of limited reopening with continued social distancing relative to a strategy of full reopening aimed at achieving herd immunity; a limited reopening “budget” measured in the number of months before this strategy fails to demonstrate cost-effectiveness relative to a full reopening; a shelter-in-place “threshold” measured in the number of lives saved at which a month of sheltering in place demonstrates cost effectiveness relative to the limited reopening strategy. RESULTS: QALY benefits from mortality averted by continued social distancing and limited reopening relative to a policy of full reopening exceed projected GDP costs if an effective vaccine or therapeutic can be developed within 11.1 months from late May 2020. White House vaccine projections fall within this date, supporting a partial reopening strategy. One month of shelter-in-place restrictions provides QALY benefits from averted mortality that exceed the associated GDP costs relative to limited reopening if the restrictions prevent at least 154,586 additional COVID-19 deaths over the course of the pandemic. Current models of disease progression suggest that limited reopening will not cause this many additional deaths, again supporting a limited reopening strategy. LIMITATION: Limited horizon of COVID-19 mortality projections; infection fatality ratio stable across strategies, ignoring both the potential for ICU overload to increase mortality and the deployment of partially effective therapeutics to decrease mortality; effect on GDP modeled as constant within a given phase of the pandemic; accounts for age and sex distribution of QALYs, but not effect of comorbidities; only considers impact from QALY lost due to mortality and from changes in GDP, excluding numerous other considerations, such as non-fatal COVID-19 morbidity, reduced quality of life caused by prolonged social distancing, or educational regression associated with prolonged school closures and restrictions. CONCLUSIONS: A limited reopening to achieve partial mitigation of COVID-19 is cost effective relative to a full reopening if an effective therapeutic or vaccine can be deployed within 11.1 months of late May 2020. One additional month of shelter-in-place restrictions should only be imposed if it saves at least 154,586 lives per month before the development of an effective therapeutic or vaccine relative to limited reopening.

positive: Challenges and burden of the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic for child and adolescent mental health: a narrative review to highlight clinical and research needs in the acute phase and the long return to normality BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is profoundly affecting life around the globe. Isolation, contact restrictions and economic shutdown impose a complete change to the psychosocial environment in affected countries. These measures have the potential to threaten the mental health of children and adolescents significantly. Even though the current crisis can bring with it opportunities for personal growth and family cohesion, disadvantages may outweigh these benefits. Anxiety, lack of peer contact and reduced opportunities for stress regulation are main concerns. Another main threat is an increased risk for parental mental illness, domestic violence and child maltreatment. Especially for children and adolescents with special needs or disadvantages, such as disabilities, trauma experiences, already existing mental health problems, migrant background and low socioeconomic status, this may be a particularly challenging time. To maintain regular and emergency child and adolescent psychiatric treatment during the pandemic is a major challenge but is necessary for limiting long-term consequences for the mental health of children and adolescents. Urgent research questions comprise understanding the mental health effects of social distancing and economic pressure, identifying risk and resilience factors, and preventing long-term consequences, including—but not restricted to—child maltreatment. The efficacy of telepsychiatry is another highly relevant issue is to evaluate the efficacy of telehealth and perfect its applications to child and adolescent psychiatry. CONCLUSION: There are numerous mental health threats associated with the current pandemic and subsequent restrictions. Child and adolescent psychiatrists must ensure continuity of care during all phases of the pandemic. COVID-19-associated mental health risks will disproportionately hit children and adolescents who are already disadvantaged and marginalized. Research is needed to assess the implications of policies enacted to contain the pandemic on mental health of children and adolescents, and to estimate the risk/benefit ratio of measures such as home schooling, in order to be better prepared for future developments.

positive: Cocooning is essential to relaxing social distancing As the first wave of COVID-19 recedes, policymakers are contemplating the relaxation of shelter-in-place orders. Using a model capturing high-risk populations and transmission rates estimated from hospitalization data, we find that postponing relaxation will only delay a second wave and cocooning vulnerable populations is needed to prevent overwhelming medical surges.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in blood in a large school community subject to a Covid-19 outbreak: a cross-sectional study. BACKGROUND A SARS-CoV-2 outbreak affecting 52 people from a large school community in Santiago, Chile was identified (March 12), nine days after the first country case. We assessed the magnitude of the outbreak and the role students and staff played using a self-administered antibody detection test and survey. METHODS The school was closed on March 13, and the entire community was placed under quarantine. We implemented a home-delivery, self-administered, IgG/IgM antibody test and survey to a classroom stratified sample of students and all staff from May 4-19. We aimed to determine overall seroprevalence rates by age group, reported symptoms, contact exposure and to explore dynamics of transmission. RESULTS Antibody positivity rates were 9.9% (95%CI: 8.2-11.8) for 1,009 students and 16.6% (95%CI: 12.1-21.9) for 235 staff. Among students, positivity was associated with younger age (P=0.01), lower grade level (P=0.05), prior RT-PCR positivity (P=0.03), and history of contact with a confirmed case (P<0.001). Among staff, positivity was higher in teachers (P=0.01) and in those previously RT-PCR positive (P<0.001). Excluding RT-PCR positive individuals, antibody positivity was associated with fever in adults and children (P=0.02; P=0.002), abdominal pain in children (P=0.001), and chest pain in adults (P=0.02). Within antibody positive individuals, 40% of students and 18% of staff reported no symptoms (P=0.01). CONCLUSIONS Teachers were more affected during the outbreak and younger children were at higher infection risk, likely because index case(s) were teachers and/or parents from preschool. Self-administered antibody testing, supervised remotely, proved to be a suitable and rapid tool. Our study provides useful information for school re-openings.

positive: School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2-4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

positive: Theoretical and applied study of the psychological and educational effects of lockdown in primary school students in Argentina Abstract Emotions are complex states, which have a fundamental role for children’s mental health and learning. The proper self-regulation of emotions allows to tolerate frustrations, improves social skills and healthy bonds with peers and adults in the environment (Bisquerra, 2003, p. 12). The lack of regulation causes discomfort that leads to a decrease in academic performance (Graziano, Reavis, Keanes & Calkins, 2006) and particularly in reading comprehension, because this competence requires motivation and cognitive processes that will allow to process the linguistic code, interpret it and represent it symbolically (Alonso-Tapia, 2005, p. 64). In this work, we show the essential relationship between emotional regulation and reading comprehension in primary school students. After that, we study the effect of lockdown on these two processes. The aim is to have preliminary information about the challenges and effects of the current situation. To do this, a semi-structured survey has been conducted of parents and teachers in order to assess the psychological and educational effects of the current health situation. The results of 40 semi-structured telephone surveys are analyzed, 20 of parents of children with learning disorders and 20 of their classroom teachers in Traslasierra, Córdoba-Argentina. The results inform that the students and their parents have difficulties to regulate their emotions and this emotional struggle has a negative impact on comprehension of texts. The problems that previously presented in these two areas have increased due to the lack of adaptation of activities by teachers, the lack of knowledge of their parents to help them and the difficulty in accessing digital technologies. Both parents and teachers express that lockdown affects learning processes, although parents are also concerned about the effects on social life.

positive: China’s Internationalized Higher Education During Covid-19: Collective Student Autoethnography This article presents 15 autoethnographical texts detailing student experiences at Beijing Normal University in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic. Contributions have been collected over 6 weeks between 15 February and 1 April 2020, edited by Hejia Wang (assisted by Moses Oladele Ogunniran and Yingying Huang), and supervised by Michael Peters. Through shared in-depth empirical feelings and representations from a wide variety of cultural, historical, and social contexts, the article outlines an answer to the question: How do students, connected virtually but separated physically in an internationalized university, deal with disruption brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic? Student testimonies offer reflections on Covid-19 and Chinese international education, experiences of online teaching and learning, reflections on university coping mechanisms, an account of realities and feelings related to changes in academic life, and discussions on coping strategies in Chinese international higher education. Contributors expose their individual feelings, effects, benefits, challenges, and risk management strategies. Collected at the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic, these testimonies are unable to offer systemic answers to challenges facing the whole world. However, these experiences and feelings will provide important inputs to global discussions about the future of the world, after Covid-19.

positive: Dramatic decrease of laboratory‐confirmed influenza A after school closure in response to COVID‐19 The novelty of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led some researchers to use influenza models and changes in influenza activity to infer the impact of social distancing measures to mitigate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

positive: COVID-19 Related School Closings and Risk of Weight Gain Among Children. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing substantial morbidity and mortality, straining health care systems, shutting down economies, and closing school districts. While it is a priority to mitigate its immediate impact, we want to call attention to the pandemic's longer-term effect on children's health: COVID-19, via these school closures, may exacerbate the epidemic of childhood obesity and increase disparities in obesity risk. In many areas of the U.S., the COVID-19 pandemic has closed schools and some of these school systems are not expected to re-open this school year. The experiences in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore suggest that social distancing orders, if lifted after short periods, will have to be periodically re-instated to control COVID-19 flare ups. In short, we anticipate that the COVID-19 pandemic will likely double out-of-school time this year for many children in the U.S. and will exacerbate the risk factors for weight gain associated with summer recess.

positive: The impact of physical distancing measures against COVID-19 transmission on contacts and mixing patterns in the Netherlands: repeated cross-sectional surveys Background During the current pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) many countries have taken drastic measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV2. The measures often include physical distancing that aims to reduce the number of contacts in the population. Little is known about the actual reduction in number of contacts as a consequence of physical distancing measures. Methods In the Netherlands, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in 2016/2017 in which 8179 participants retrospectively reported the number, age and gender of different persons they had contacted (spoken to in person or touched) during the previous day. The survey was repeated among 2830 of the original participants, using the same questionnaire, in March and April 2020 after physical distancing measures had been implemented. Results The average number of contacts in the community was reduced from on average 12.5 (interquartile range: 2-17) to 3.7 (interquartile range: 0-4) different persons per participant, a reduction of 71% (95% confidence interval: 71-71). The reduction in the number of community contacts was highest for children and adolescents (between 5 and 20 years) and smallest for elderly persons of 80 years and older. The reduction in the effective number of total contacts, measured as the largest eigenvalue of the matrix with community and household contacts, was 62% (95% confidence interval: 48 - 72). Conclusion The substantial reduction in contacts has contributed greatly in halting the COVID-19 epidemic. This reduction was unevenly distributed over age groups, household sizes and occupations. These findings offer guidance for the lifting of age-group targeted measures.

positive: Rapid Systematic Review: The Impact of Social Isolation and Loneliness on the Mental Health of Children and Adolescents in the Context of COVID-19 OBJECTIVE: Disease containment of COVID-19 has necessitated widespread social isolation. We aimed to establish what is known about how loneliness and disease containment measures impact on the mental health in children and adolescents. METHOD: For this rapid review, we searched MEDLINE, PSYCHINFO, and Web of Science for articles published between 01/01/1946 and 03/29/2020. 20% of articles were double screened using pre-defined criteria and 20% of data was double extracted for quality assurance. RESULTS: 83 articles (80 studies) met inclusion criteria. Of these, 63 studies reported on the impact of social isolation and loneliness on the mental health of previously healthy children and adolescents (n=51,576; mean age 15.3) 61 studies were observational; 18 were longitudinal and 43 cross sectional studies assessing self-reported loneliness in healthy children and adolescents. One of these studies was a retrospective investigation after a pandemic. Two studies evaluated interventions. Studies had a high risk of bias although longitudinal studies were of better methodological quality. Social isolation and loneliness increased the risk of depression, and possibly anxiety at the time loneliness was measured and between 0.25 to 9 years later. Duration of loneliness was more strongly correlated with mental health symptoms than intensity of loneliness. CONCLUSION: Children and adolescents are probably more likely to experience high rates of depression and probably anxiety during and after enforced isolation ends. This may increase as enforced isolation continues. Clinical services should offer preventative support and early intervention where possible and be prepared for an increase in mental health problems.

positive: Our education, our concerns: The impact on medical student education of COVID‐19 March 2020, it seemed as if my world was turned upside down. I opened an email from my medical school dean of student affairs stating: Match Day, cancelled. The day that would determine where we trained as postgraduate residents, the day my class had worked towards for 4 years, cancelled due to this new virus that we seemed to know so little about: COVID-19. However, as important as that day was to my fellow 4th year medical students and I, we quickly learned that the impact was much larger. What about our electives, our mandatory rotations, and even the Sub-Internship's students still had to complete? Not just that, but "what can we do to help," became a common statement echoed by all students. We don't want to see this as a detriment to our education but a learning experience. A learning experience for how to be best prepared to help now, and in the future. One way to help is to make changes in medical education to ensure all students are still getting the absolute best level of education possible. This starts with recognizing the options we have and utilizing all of the tools at our disposal, despite the boundaries created by COVID-19.

positive: Influence of school closure on the incidence of viral respiratory diseases among children and on health care utilization. We evaluated the effect of school closure on the occurrence of respiratory infection among children ages 6-12 years and its impact on health care services. During this period, there were significant decreases in the diagnoses of respiratory infections (42%), visits to physician (28%) and emergency departments (28%) and medication purchases (35%). The present study provides quantitative data to support school closure during an influenza pandemic.

positive: Longitudinal analyses of the relationship between development density and the COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates: Early evidence from 1,165 metropolitan counties in the United States This longitudinal study aimed to investigative the impacts of development density on the spread and mortality rates of COVID-19 in metropolitan counties in the United States. Multilevel Linear Modeling (MLM) were employed to model the infection rate and the mortality rate of COVID-19, accounting for the hierarchical (two-level) and longitudinal structure of the data. This study found that large metropolitan size (measured in terms of population) lead to significantly higher COVID-19 infection rates and higher mortality rates. After controlling for metropolitan size and other confounding variables, county density leads to significantly lower infection rates and lower death rates. These findings recommend that urban planners and health professionals continue to advocate for compact development and continue to oppose urban sprawl for this and many other reasons documented in the literature, including the positive relationship between compact development and fitness and general health.

positive: Expected impact of lockdown in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies More than half of the global population is currently under strict forms of social distancing, with more than 90 countries in lockdown, including France. Estimating the expected impact of the lockdown, and the potential effectiveness of different exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in the Île-de-France region to (i) assess the current epidemic situation, (ii) evaluate the expected impact of the lockdown implemented in France on March 17, 2020, and (iii) estimate the effectiveness of possible exit strategies. The model is calibrated on hospital admission data of the region before lockdown and validated on syndromic and virological surveillance data. Different types and durations of social distancing interventions are simulated, including a progressive lifting of the lockdown targeted on specific classes of individuals (e.g. allowing a larger proportion of the population to go to work, while protecting the elderly), and large-scale testing. We estimate the basic reproductive number at 3.0 [2.8, 3.2] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and the population infected by COVID-19 as of April 5 to be in the range 1% to 6%. The average number of contacts is predicted to be reduced by 80% during lockdown, leading to a substantial reduction of the reproductive number (RLD = 0.68 [0.62-0.73]). Under these conditions, the epidemic curve reaches ICU system capacity and slowly decreases during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave largely overwhelming the healthcare system. Extensive case-finding, testing and isolation are required to envision social distancing strategies that gradually relax current constraints (larger fraction of individuals going back to work, progressive reopening of activities), while keeping schools closed and seniors isolated. As France faces the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case-finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.

positive: Initial Coronavirus Disease-2019 Closure Strategies Adopted by a Convenience Sample of US School Districts: Directions for Future Research School closures are an important strategy to mitigate the impacts of a pandemic. But an optimal approach to transitioning from in-person to distance learning approaches is lacking. We analyzed a convenience sample of public K-12 schools in the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. This initial snapshot provides some insights to inform future research into the variation of strategies across school districts, and would benefit from more rigorous methods to determine true correlations between demographic and geographic factors. Additionally, many of these strategies have evolved in response to ongoing and prolonged public health social distancing measures implemented after this analysis was conducted.

positive: Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force. The potential benefits from school closures need to be weighed against costs of health-care worker absenteeism associated with additional child-care obligations. In this study, we aimed to measure child-care obligations for US health-care workers arising from school closures when these are used as a social distancing measure. We then assessed how important the contribution of health-care workers would have to be in reducing mortality for their absenteeism due to child-care obligations to undo the benefits of school closures in reducing the number of cases. METHODS: For this modelling analysis, we used data from the monthly releases of the US Current Population Survey to characterise the family structure and probable within-household child-care options of US health-care workers. We accounted for the occupation within the health-care sector, state, and household structure to identify the segments of the health-care workforce that are most exposed to child-care obligations from school closures. We used these estimates to identify the critical level at which the importance of health-care labour supply in increasing the survival probability of a patient with COVID-19 would undo the benefits of school closures and ultimately increase cumulative mortality. FINDINGS: Between January, 2018, and January, 2020, the US Current Population Survey included information on more than 3·1 million individuals across 1·3 million households. We found that the US health-care sector has some of the highest child-care obligations in the USA, with 28·8% (95% CI 28·5-29·1) of the health-care workforce needing to provide care for children aged 3-12 years. Assuming non-working adults or a sibling aged 13 years or older can provide child care, 15·0% (14·8-15·2) of the health-care workforce would still be in need of child care during a school closure. We observed substantial variation within the health-care system. We estimated that, combined with reasonable parameters for COVID-19 such as a 15·0% case reduction from school closings and 2·0% baseline mortality rate, a 15·0% decrease in the health-care labour force would need to decrease the survival probability per percent health-care worker lost by 17·6% for a school closure to increase cumulative mortality. Our model estimates that if the infection mortality rate of COVID-19 increases from 2·00% to 2·35% when the health-care workforce declines by 15·0%, school closures could lead to a greater number of deaths than they prevent. INTERPRETATION: School closures come with many trade-offs, and can create unintended child-care obligations. Our results suggest that the potential contagion prevention from school closures needs to be carefully weighted with the potential loss of health-care workers from the standpoint of reducing cumulative mortality due to COVID-19, in the absence of mitigating measures. FUNDING: None.

positive: How digital natives learn and thrive in the digital age: Evidence from an emerging economy As a generation of 'digital natives,' secondary students who were born from 2002 to 2010 have various approaches to acquiring digital knowledge. Digital literacy and resilience are crucial for them to navigate the digital world as much as the real world; however, these remain under-researched subjects, especially in developing countries. In Vietnam, the education system has put considerable effort into teaching students these skills to promote quality education as part of the United Nations-defined Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4). This issue has proven especially salient amid the COVID??19 pandemic lockdowns, which had obliged most schools to switch to online forms of teaching. This study, which utilizes a dataset of 1061 Vietnamese students taken from the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)'s "Digital Kids Asia Pacific (DKAP)" project, employs Bayesian statistics to explore the relationship between the students' background and their digital abilities. Results show that economic status and parents' level of education are positively correlated with digital literacy. Students from urban schools have only a slightly higher level of digital literacy than their rural counterparts, suggesting that school location may not be a defining explanatory element in the variation of digital literacy and resilience among Vietnamese students. Students' digital literacy and, especially resilience, also have associations with their gender. Moreover, as students are digitally literate, they are more likely to be digitally resilient. Following SDG4, i.e., Quality Education, it is advisable for schools, and especially parents, to seriously invest in creating a safe, educational environment to enhance digital literacy among students.

positive: The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England Background: In the UK, cases of COVID-19 have been declining since mid-April and there is good evidence to suggest that the effective reproduction number has dropped below 1, leading to a multi-phase relaxation plan for the country to emerge from lockdown. As part of this staggered process, primary schools are scheduled to partially reopen on 1st June. Evidence from a range of sources suggests that children are, in general, only mildly affected by the disease and have low mortality rates, though there is less certainty regarding children's role in transmission. Therefore, there is wide discussion on the impact of reopening schools. Methods: We compare eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England from 1st June, focusing on the return of particular year groups and the associated epidemic consequences. This is assessed through model simulation, modifying a previously developed dynamic transmission model for SARS-CoV-2. We quantify how the process of reopening schools affected contact patterns and anticipated secondary infections, the relative change in R according to the extent of school reopening, and determine the public health impact via estimated change in clinical cases and its sensitivity to decreases in adherence post strict lockdown. Findings: Whilst reopening schools, in any form, results in more mixing between children, an increase in R and hence transmission of the disease, the magnitude of that increase can be low dependent upon the age-groups that return to school and the behaviour of the remaining population. We predict that reopening schools in a way that allows half class sizes or that is focused on younger children is unlikely to push R above one, although there is noticeable variation between the regions of the country. Given that older children have a greater number of social contacts and hence a greater potential for transmission, our findings suggest reopening secondary schools results in larger increases in case burden than only reopening primary schools; reopening both generates the largest increase and could push R above one in some regions. The impact of less social-distancing in the rest of the population, generally has far larger effects than reopening schools and exacerbates the impacts of reopening. Discussion: Our work indicates that any reopening of schools will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, although the opening of schools alone is unlikely to push the value of R above one. However, impacts of other recent relaxations of lockdown measures are yet to be quantified, suggesting some regions may be closer to the critical threshold that would lead to a growth in cases. Given the uncertainties, in part due to limited data on COVID-19 in children, school reopening should be carefully monitored. Ultimately, the decision about reopening classrooms is a difficult trade-off between increased epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children.

positive: The role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A rapid review BACKGROUND: Understanding the role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is urgently required given its policy implications in relation to the reopening of schools and intergenerational contacts. METHODS: We conducted a rapid review of studies that investigated the role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We synthesized evidence for four categories: 1) studies reporting documented cases of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by infected children; 2) studies presenting indirect evidence on the potential of SARS-CoV-2 transmission by (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) children; 3) studies reporting cluster outbreaks of COVID-19 in schools; 4) studies estimating the proportions of children infected by SARS-CoV-2, and reported results narratively. RESULTS: A total of 16 unique studies were included for narrative synthesis. There is limited evidence detailing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from infected children. We found two studies that reported a 3-month-old whose parents developed symptomatic COVID-19 seven days after caring for the infant and two children who may have contracted COVID-19 from the initial cases at a school in New South Wales. In addition, we identified six studies presenting indirect evidence on the potential for SARS-CoV-2 transmission by children, three of which found prolonged virus shedding in stools. There is little data on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We identified only two studies reporting outbreaks of COVID-19 in school settings and one case report of a child attending classes but not infecting any other pupils or staff. Lastly, we identified six studies estimating the proportion of children infected; data from population-based studies in Iceland, Italy, South Korea, Netherlands, California and a hospital-based study in the UK suggest children may be less likely to be infected. CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary results from population-based and school-based studies suggest that children may be less frequently infected or infect others, however current evidence is limited. Prolonged faecal shedding observed in studies highlights the potentially increased risk of faeco-oral transmission in children. Further seroprevalence studies (powered adequately for the paediatric population) are urgently required to establish whether children are in fact less likely to be infected compared to adults. NOTE: We plan to update this rapid review as new data becomes available. These updates are available at https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/uncover/completed-uncover-reviews.

positive: Closure of schools during an influenza pandemic Summary In response to WHO raising the influenza pandemic alert level from phase five to phase six, health officials around the world are carefully reviewing pandemic mitigation protocols. School closure (also called class dismissal in North America) is a non-pharmaceutical intervention that is commonly suggested for mitigating influenza pandemics. Health officials taking the decision to close schools must weigh the potential health benefits of reducing transmission and thus case numbers against high economic and social costs, difficult ethical issues, and the possible disruption of key services such as health care. Also, if schools are expected to close as a deliberate policy option, or just because of high levels of staff absenteeism, it is important to plan to mitigate the negative features of closure. In this context, there is still debate about if, when, and how school closure policy should be used. In this Review, we take a multidisciplinary and holistic perspective and review the multiple aspects of school closure as a public health policy. Implications for the mitigation of the swine-origin influenza A H1N1 pandemic are also discussed.

positive: Teachers' risk perception and needs in addressing infectious disease outbreak. The outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus has led to numerous precautionary school closures in several countries. No research is available on the school teachers' perceptions as a health protective resource in controlling communicable disease outbreaks. The purposes of this study were to examine the risk perception, the perceived understanding of preventive measures and contingency plans, and the needs of school teachers before the imminent outbreak of H1N1. This survey was conducted with 1,169 Hong Kong school teachers before school closures due to the H1N1 outbreak. The results showed that the teachers were well aware of H1N1 but were still worried about the spread of H1N1 infection. The teachers' worries depended on their psychological reaction, the adequacy of the control measures, government support in providing infectious disease knowledge, perceived understanding of preventive measures and contingency plans, students and parents' awareness, and the need for support from health professionals.

positive: Feeling Positive About Reopening?New Normal Scenarios from COVID-19 ReopenSentiment Analytics The Coronavirus pandemic has created complex challenges and adverse circumstances. This research identifies public sentiment amidst problematic socioeconomic consequences of the lockdown, and explores ensuing four potential sentiment associated scenarios. The severity and brutality of COVID-19 have led to the development of extreme feelings, and emotional and mental healthcare challenges. This research focuses on emotional consequences - the presence of extreme fear, confusion and volatile sentiments, mixed along with trust and anticipation. It is necessary to gauge dominant public sentiment trends for effective decisions and policies. This study analyzes public sentiment using Twitter Data, time-aligned to the COVID-19 reopening debate, to identify dominant sentiment trends associated with the push to 'reopen' the economy. Present research uses textual analytics methodologies to analyze public sentiment support for two potential divergent scenarios - an early opening and a delayed opening, and consequences of each. Present research concludes on the basis of exploratory textual analytics and textual data visualization, that Tweets data from American Twitter users shows more positive sentiment support, than negative, for reopening the US economy. This research develops a novel sentiment polarity based four scenarios framework, which will remain useful for future crisis analysis, well beyond COVID-19. With additional validation, this research stream could present valuable time sensitive opportunities for state governments, the federal government, corporations and societal leaders to guide local and regional communities, and the nation into a successful new normal future.

positive: Coronavirus Disease 2019, School Closures, and Children’s Mental Health Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which was first identified in Wuhan, China, in late December of 2019 is rapidly spreading across the globe. The South Korean government has ordered the closure of all schools, as part of its attempts to use social distancing measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The effects of the school closures on reducing contagion are generally positive; however, the measure is controversial because of the socioeconomic ripple effect that accompanies it. The author briefly reviewed the existing literature on the mental health aspects of disasters and presents the issues related to school closures due to pandemics, from medical and socioeconomic perspectives and in terms of children’s mental health. The results of this review suggest that research on children’s mental health in relation to the adoption of school closures as a pandemic mitigation strategy is urgently needed.

positive: School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

positive: Impact of COVID-19 Behavioral Inertia on Reopening Strategies for New York City Transit The COVID-19 pandemic has affected travel behaviors and transportation system operations, and cities are grappling with what policies can be effective for a phased reopening shaped by social distancing. A baseline model was previously developed and calibrated for pre-COVID conditions as MATSim-NYC. A new COVID model is calibrated that represents travel behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic by recalibrating the population agendas to include work-from-home and re-estimating the mode choice model for MATSim-NYC to fit observed traffic and transit ridership data. Assuming the change in behavior exhibits inertia during reopening, we analyze the increase in car traffic due to the phased reopen plan guided by the state government of New York. Four reopening phases and two reopening scenarios (with and without transit capacity restrictions) are analyzed. A Phase 4 reopening with 100% transit capacity may only see as much as 73% of pre-COVID ridership and an increase in the number of car trips by as much as 142% of pre-pandemic levels. Limiting transit capacity to 50% would decrease transit ridership further from 73% to 64% while increasing car trips to as much as 143% of pre-pandemic levels. While the increase appears small, the impact on consumer surplus is disproportionately large due to already increased traffic congestion. Many of the trips also get shifted to other modes like micromobility. The findings imply that a transit capacity restriction policy during reopening needs to be accompanied by (1) support for micromobility modes, particularly in non-Manhattan boroughs, and (2) congestion alleviation policies that focus on reducing traffic in Manhattan, such as cordon-based pricing.

positive: Projection of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in the US as Individual States Re-open May 4,2020 In March and April 2020, control measures enforcing social distancing and restricting individual movement and contact were adopted across the United States in an effort to slow the spread and growth of COVID-19. However, a number of states have now begun to ease these restrictions. Here, we evaluate the effects of loosening stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 incidence and related outcomes. We use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the United States. We calibrate the model against county-level daily case and death data collected from February 21, 2020 to May 2, 2020, and project the outbreak in 3,142 US counties for 6 weeks into the future. Projections for daily reported cases, daily new infections (both reported and unreported), new and cumulative hospital bed demand, ICU bed and ventilator demand, as well as daily mortality, are generated. We observe a rebound in COVID-19 incidence and deaths beginning in late May, approximately 2 to 4 weeks after states begin to reopen. Importantly, the lag between infection acquisition and case confirmation, coupled with insufficient broader testing and contact tracing, will mask any rebound and exponential growth of the COVID-19 until it is well underway.

positive: The role of heterogeneity in contact timing and duration in network models of influenza spread in schools Influenza poses a significant health threat to children, and schools may play a critical role in community outbreaks. Mathematical outbreak models require assumptions about contact rates and patterns among students, but the level of temporal granularity required to produce reliable results is unclear. We collected objective contact data from students aged 5–14 at an elementary school and middle school in the state of Utah, USA, and paired those data with a novel, data-based model of influenza transmission in schools. Our simulations produced within-school transmission averages consistent with published estimates. We compared simulated outbreaks over the full resolution dynamic network with simulations on networks with averaged representations of contact timing and duration. For both schools, averaging the timing of contacts over one or two school days caused average outbreak sizes to increase by 1–8%. Averaging both contact timing and pairwise contact durations caused average outbreak sizes to increase by 10% at the middle school and 72% at the elementary school. Averaging contact durations separately across within-class and between-class contacts reduced the increase for the elementary school to 5%. Thus, the effect of ignoring details about contact timing and duration in school contact networks on outbreak size modelling can vary across different schools.

positive: Health-education to prevent COVID-19 in schoolchildren: a call to action BACKGROUND: There is currently considerable international debate around school closures/openings and the role of children in the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whilst evidence suggests that children are not impacted by COVID-19 as severely as adults, little is still known about their transmission potential, and with a lot of asymptomatic cases they may be silent transmitters (i.e. infectious without showing clinical signs of disease), albeit at a lower level than adults. In relation to this, it is somewhat concerning that in many countries children are cared for, or are often in close contact with, older individuals such as grandparents ─ the age group most at risk of acquiring serious respiratory complications resulting in death. MAIN TEXT: We emphasise that in the absence of a vaccine or an effective therapeutic drug, preventive measures such as good hygiene practices ─ hand washing, cough etiquette, disinfection of surfaces and social distancing represent the major (in fact only) weapons that we have against COVID-19. Accordingly, we stress that there is a pressing need to develop specific COVID-19 prevention messages for schoolchildren. CONCLUSION: An entertainment education intervention for schoolchildren systematically implemented in schools would be highly effective and fill this need. With such measures in place there would be greater confidence around the opening of schools.

positive: Medical Student Mobilization During a Crisis: Lessons From a COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team On March 17, 2020, the Association of American Medical Colleges recommended the suspension of all direct patient contact responsibilities for medical students because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Given this change, medical students nationwide had to grapple with how and where they could fill the evolving needs of their schools’ affiliated clinical sites, physicians, and patients and the community. APPROACH: At Harvard Medical School (HMS), student leaders created a COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team to: (1) develop a student-led organizational structure that would optimize students’ ability to efficiently mobilize interested peers in the COVID-19 response, both clinically and in the community, in a strategic, safe, smart, and resource-conscious way; and (2) serve as a liaison with the administration and hospital leaders to identify evolving needs and rapidly engage students in those efforts. OUTCOMES: Within a week of its inception, the COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team had more than 500 medical student volunteers from HMS and had shared the organizational framework of the response team with multiple medical schools across the country. The HMS student volunteers joined any of the 4 virtual committees to complete this work: Education for the Medical Community, Education for the Broader Community, Activism for Clinical Support, and Community Activism. NEXT STEPS: The COVID-19 Medical Student Response Team helped to quickly mobilize hundreds of students and has been integrated into HMS’s daily workflow. It may serve as a useful model for other schools and hospitals seeking medical student assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Next steps include expanding the initiative further, working with the leaders of response teams at other medical schools to coordinate efforts, and identifying new areas of need at local hospitals and within nearby communities that might benefit from medical student involvement as the pandemic evolves.

positive: Responding to the accumulation of adverse childhood experiences in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic: implications for practice In early 2020, the world as we knew it began to change dramatically and rapidly with the COVID-19 outbreak. Social distancing restrictions and lockdown measures have been the most effective course of action and an inarguably imperative approach at this time. However, in trying to keep the global population safe, social distancing measures unwittingly placed children already experiencing maltreatment and disadvantage in harm’s way. This paper will consider the evidence base which attests to the importance of considering the accumulation of adversity when seeking to understand risk and impact of child maltreatment and disadvantage. Given the unique and unprecedented circumstances which have accompanied the COVID-19 outbreak, and the dearth of research pertaining to the impact of pandemics on child welfare, the paper draws on an emerging body of literature about the effect of natural disasters, conflict and significant global events on child maltreatment. The paper synthesises the research to date in order to call attention to the cumulative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children already experiencing abuse and neglect. The paper concludes with an outline of the implications for practice in the helping professions.

positive: Unterricht an der Berufsfachschule für Notfallsanitäter der Landeshauptstadt München im Angesicht der COVID-19-Pandemie The ongoing Coronavirus crisis forced both the Berufsfachschule für Notfallsanitäter (emergency paramedic vocational school) of the Munich fire department and all other German schools to quit classroom teaching within just a few days. Similarly, all practical trainings at clinics and on ambulances had to be put on hold. As the apprentices’ training objective was acutely endangered by the expected lengthy teaching downtimes, it was of crucial importance to successfully establish homeschooling. While members of our teaching staff were additionally bound by support for the Munich crisis unit, the switch to virtual classroom teaching for all ongoing courses significantly increased the overall workload of the staff. In a first step, we established a fast video and communication platform via Microsoft Skype. All other issues had to be solved on the fly due to the lack of preparation time. Soon it became obvious that using only classic upfront teaching methods was not an option due to the resulting monotony of a full-time 35 h training week. Additionally, we had to ensure that exams would also be possible during homeschooling to avoid the accumulation of missing performance assessments. Within a few days, it became clear that almost all forms of social interactions and teaching methods could be integrated into the virtual classroom with minor limitations. A survey among students showed that while homeschooling cannot fully replace classroom teaching, it is considered a good alternative in emergency situations. Furthermore, many trainees think that homeschooling could be a valuable addition to normal classroom teaching. Maybe this crisis could turn out to be the beginning of a new complementary teaching strategy.

positive: School’s Out for COVID-19: 50 Ways BCBA Trainees in Special Education Settings Can Accrue Independent Fieldwork Experience Hours During the Pandemic Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and nationwide executive orders closing schools, many trainees completing their supervised independent fieldwork in educational settings lost the ability to accrue hours linked to restricted activities of a therapeutic and instructional nature with students (i.e., clients). Given the impact on trainees of the pandemic restrictions, we present 50 suggestions for trainees in school settings to continue to accrue hours for both restricted and unrestricted activities throughout the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.

positive: Contingent reflections on coronavirus and priorities for educational planning and development The COVID-19 pandemic has dramatically shifted education and development priorities. The tragic death toll and high rates of morbidity across many countries are an unprecedented setback and a calamity for those affected physically and mentally. The economic and social effects of lockdowns, loss of production and business confidence, and global recession will cast a long shadow over education systems. Despite the 435 million items that Google already indexes under “COVID-19 education”, many things remain unknown. No one has a clear idea of how the current pandemic will unravel over anything but the short term. The challenge is to strengthen the mechanisms to separate evidence from opinion and to balance popularism with speaking truth to power—especially when political systems can find it difficult to distinguish fact from convenient fiction. This paper advances ten propositions that will shape policy dialogue and whatever iteration of the Sustainable Development Goals is needed to ensure they remain fit for purpose. Testing these propositions over the next year will open the door to an evidence-based approach to reconstruction and sustainable development and juxtapose immediate concerns of the present with aspirations for the future. More than ever the need is to see beyond the exigencies of COVID-19 and act to secure the educational gains of the recent past. UNESCO and other development agencies can play a key role in sharing how to manage revitalised and resilient learning systems that allow the community of practice to stay focussed on development that is economically, socially, medically, and educationally sustainable. Spaceship Earth has to be secured for future generations through the knowledge, skill and attitudes of its crew and passengers. Seriously revisiting SDG4, its targets and indicators, and its relationships with other SDGs, would be a start.

positive: Outbreak of macrolide-resistant mycoplasma pneumoniae in a primary school in Beijing, China in 2018 BACKGROUND: On 7th June, 2018, a primary school in Beijing, China notified Shunyi CDC of an outbreak of acute respiratory disease characterized by fever and cough among students and resulting in nine hospitalization cases during the preceding 2 weeks. We started an investigation to identify the etiologic agent, find additional cases, develop and implement control measures. METHODS: We defined probable cases as students, teachers and other staffs in the school developed fever (T ≥ 37.5 °C) with cough or sore throat; or a diagnosis of pneumonia during May 1–June 31, 2018. Confirmed cases were probable cases with Mycoplasma pneumoniae detected in oropharyngeal (OP) swabs by quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). We searched case by reviewing school absenteeism records and interviewing students, teachers and staff in this school. Oropharyngeal swabs were collected from symptomatic students. Two qPCR) assay, a duplex qPCR assay, and sequencing were performed to determine the pathogen, genotype and macrolide resistance at the gene level, respectively. RESULTS: From May 1st to June 31st, 2018, we identified 55 cases (36 probable and 19 confirmed), of whom 25 (45%) were hospitalized for complications. All cases were students, none of the teachers and other staffs in the school were with similar symptoms. The attack rate (AR) was 3.9% (55/1398) for all students. The cases were mainly male (58%), with an age range of 7–8 years (median: 7 years). 72% (18/25) of inpatients had radiograph findings consistent with pneumonia, and some cases were hospitalized for up to 4 weeks. Pathogen detection results indicated that Mycoplasma pneumonia (M. pneumoniae) P1 type 1 was the causative agent in this outbreak, and the strain harbored one point mutation of A to G at position 2063. CONCLUSIONS: The infections by macrolide-resistant M. pneumoniae are not always mild and pneumonia was common and M. pneumoniae could causes serious complications which require long-term hospitalization. In the future infectious disease prevention and control practice, M. pneumoniae should be paid more attention. It is necessary to establish and improve the pathogen and drug resistance surveillance system in order to prevent and control such mutated strains of M. pneumoniae from causing future outbreaks or epidemics in China.

positive: Novel Coronavirus 2019 Transmission Risk in Educational Settings Transmission risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in schools is unknown. Our investigations, especially in preschools, could not detect SARS-CoV-2 transmission despite screening of symptomatic and asymptomatic children. The data suggest that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in schools and could help inform exit strategies for lifting of lockdowns.

positive: To what extent do children transmit SARS‐CoV‐2 virus?

positive: Managing psychological distress in children and adolescents following the COVID-19 epidemic: A cooperative approach. Children and adolescents are susceptible to the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic and tend to show posttraumatic distress. Immediately after an epidemic, governments and social organizations often provide psychological services for children and adolescents to relieve their distress. However, many adolescents report distress even long after a traumatic event because of the unaddressed traumatic atmosphere in schools or families. To advance this issue, this article proposes a cooperative model of psychological services provision for children and adolescents in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. This model suggests that psychological services should simultaneously include social, school, and family systems, which interact and have a synergistic effect. The social system provides direct services not only for children and adolescents but also for their school and family systems; school and family systems cooperate to support adolescents. Psychological work also needs to emphasize the key elements of school and family systems. Attention should be given to teachers' distress, teacher-student relationships, and peer relationships in the school system, as well as to parents' distress, parent-child relationships, and the marital relationship in the family system. In these ways, adolescents can achieve an efficient and sustainable recovery following a disaster. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

positive: School closure, COVID‐19 and lunch programme: Unprecedented undernutrition crisis in low‐middle income countries The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has affected nearly 70% of children and teenagers around the world due to school closure policies. School closure is implemented widely in order to prevent viral transmission and its impact on the broader community, based on preliminary recommendations and evidence from influenza. However, there is debate with regard to the effectiveness of school closures. Growing evidence suggests that a child's SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is often mild or asymptomatic and that children may not be major SARS‐CoV‐2 transmitters; thus, it is questionable if school closures prevent transmission significantly. This question is important as a majority of children in low‐ and middle‐income countries depend on free school meals; unexpected long‐term school closure may adversely impact nutrition and educational outcomes. Food insecurity is expected to be higher during the pandemic. In this viewpoint, we argue for a more thorough exploration of potential adverse impacts of school closures in low‐ and middle‐income countries and recommend actions to ensure that the health and learning needs of vulnerable populations are met in this time of crisis.

positive: How COVID-19 Deepens Child Oral Health Inequities ABSTRACT The fallout from COVID-19 will reveal the depth and range of social, economic, and political disparities faced by U.S. families and children. Those same injustices, magnified and worsened by COVID-19, are also responsible for perpetuating child oral health disparities.

positive: COVID-19 causes unprecedented educational disruption: Is there a road towards a new normal? COVID-19 confronts the education system with a new and massive crisis. What should a “new normal” look like for future generations? How can countries use the innovativeness of the recovery period to “build back better”? This Viewpoint highlights the UNESCO-led Global Coalition for Education initiative, which is seeking solutions to support learners and teachers, as well as governments throughout the recovery process, with a principal focus on inclusion, equity, and gender equality. The Viewpoint also argues that the current crisis is an opportunity for stronger international collaboration, which might provide a better focus and deliver solutions, including digital tools. Resilience and adaptability will be crucial for the next generations to navigate through the present—and any future—pandemic.

positive: Augmenting contact matrices with time-use data for fine-grained intervention modelling of disease dynamics: A modelling analysis Background: Social distancing is an important public health intervention to reduce or interrupt the sustained community transmission of emerging infectious pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2 during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We aimed to explore the impact on the epidemic curve of fewer contacts when individuals reduce the time they spend on selected daily activities. Methods: We combined the large-scale empirical data of a social contact survey and a time-use survey to estimate contact matrices by age group (0-15, 16-24, 25-44, 45-64, 65+) and daily activity (work, schooling, transportation, and four leisure activities: social visits, bar/cafe/restaurant visits, park visits, and non-essential shopping). We assumed that reductions in time are proportional to reductions in contacts. The derived matrices were then applied in an age-structured dynamic-transmission model of COVID-19 to explore the effects. Findings: The relative reductions in the derived contact matrices were highest when closing schools (in ages 0-14 years), workplaces (15-64 years), and stopping social visits (65+ years). For COVID-19, the closure of workplaces, schools, and stopping social visits had the largest impact on reducing the epidemic curve and delaying its peak, while the predicted impact of fewer contacts in parks, bars/cafes/restaurants, and non-essential shopping were minimal. Interpretation: We successfully augmented contact matrices with time-use data to predict the highest impact of social distancing measures from reduced contacts when spending less time at work, school, and on social visits. Although the predicted impact from other leisure activities with potential for close physical contact were minimal, changes in mixing patterns and time-use immediately after re-allowing social activities may pose increased short-term transmission risks, especially in potentially crowded environments indoors.

positive: The attitudes, perceptions and experiences of medical school applicants following the closure of schools and cancellation of public examinations in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic Objective To describe medical applicants' experiences of education and their views on changes to medical school admissions, including the awarding of calculated grades, following the 2020 closure of schools and universities, and the cancellation of public examinations in the United Kingdom due to the COVID-19/coronavirus pandemic. To understand how applicants from diverse social backgrounds might differ in these regards. Design Cross-sectional questionnaire study forming part of the longitudinal United Kingdom Medical Applicant Cohort Study (UKMACS). Setting United Kingdom medical school admissions. Participants 2887 participants (68% female; 64% with at least one degree-educated parent; 63% with at least one parent in the highest socioeconomic group) completed an online questionnaire between 8th and 22nd April 2020. To be invited to complete the questionnaire, participants had to have registered to take the University Clinical Admissions Test (UCAT) in 2019 and to have agreed to be invited to take part in the study, or they needed to have completed one or more previous UKMACS questionnaires. They also need to have been seriously considering applying to study medicine in the UK for entry in 2020 between May and October 2019, and be resident in the UK or Islands/Crown Dependencies. Main outcome measures Views on calculated grades, views on potential changes to medical school admissions and teaching in 2020 and 2021, reported experiences of education following the closure of educational institutions in March 2020. Results Respondents had concerns about the calculated grades that will replace A-level examinations, especially female applicants and applicants from Black Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) backgrounds who felt teachers would find it difficult to grade and rank students accurately, as well as those from non-selective state schools and those living in deprived areas who had some concerns about the grade standardisation process. Calculated grades were not considered fair enough by a majority to use in the acceptance or rejection of medical offer-holders, but several measures - including interview and aptitude test scores - were considered fair enough to use in combination. Respondents from non-selective state (public) schools reported less use of and less access to educational resources compared to their counterparts at private/selective schools. In particular they reported less online teaching in real time, and reported spending less time studying during the lockdown. Conclusions The coronavirus pandemic will have significant and long term impacts on the selection, education and performance of our future medical workforce. It is important that the views and experiences of medical applicants from diverse backgrounds are taken into consideration in decisions affecting their futures and the future of the profession.

positive: Statewide Interventions and Covid-19 Mortality in the United States: An Observational Study. BACKGROUND Social distancing is encouraged to mitigate viral spreading during outbreaks. However, the association between distancing and patient-centered outcomes in Covid-19 has not been demonstrated. In the United States social distancing orders are implemented at the state level with variable timing of onset. Emergency declarations and school closures were two early statewide interventions. METHODS To determine whether later distancing interventions were associated with higher mortality, we performed a state-level analysis in 55,146 Covid-19 non-survivors. We tested the association between timing of emergency declarations and school closures with 28-day mortality using multivariable negative binomial regression. Day 1 for each state was set to when they recorded ≥ 10 deaths. We performed sensitivity analyses to test model assumptions. RESULTS At time of analysis, 37 of 50 states had ≥ 10 deaths and 28 follow-up days. Both later emergency declaration (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR] 1.05 per day delay, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.09, p=0.040) and later school closure (aMRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.008) were associated with more deaths. When assessing all 50 states and setting day 1 to the day a state recorded its first death, delays in declaring an emergency (aMRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.09, p=0.020) or closing schools (aMRR 1.06, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.09, p<0.001) were associated with more deaths. Results were unchanged when excluding New York and New Jersey. CONCLUSIONS Later statewide emergency declarations and school closure were associated with higher Covid-19 mortality. Each day of delay increased mortality risk 5 to 6%.

positive: Transmissibility and temporal changes of 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during summer and fall/winter waves BACKGROUND: In order to compare the transmissibility of the 2009 pH1N1 pandemic during successive waves of infections in summer and fall/winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and to assess the temporal changes during the course of the outbreak in relation to the intervention measures implemented, we analyze the epidemiological patterns of the epidemic in Taiwan during July 2009-March 2010. METHODS: We utilize the multi-phase Richards model to fit the weekly cumulative pH1N1 epidemiological data (numbers of confirmed cases and hospitalizations) as well as the daily number of classes suspended under a unique "325" partial school closing policy in Taiwan, in order to pinpoint the turning points of the summer and fall/winter waves, and to estimate the reproduction numbers R for each wave. RESULTS: Our analysis indicates that the summer wave had slowed down by early September when schools reopened for fall. However, a second fall/winter wave began in late September, approximately 4 weeks after the school reopened, peaking at about 2-3 weeks after the start of the mass immunization campaign in November. R is estimated to be in the range of 1.04-1.27 for the first wave, and between 1.01-1.05 for the second wave. CONCLUSIONS: Transmissibility of the summer wave in Taiwan during July-early September, as measured by R, was lower than that of the earlier spring outbreak in North America and Europe, as well as that of the winter outbreak in Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, transmissibility during fall/winter in Taiwan was noticeably lower than that of the summer, which is attributable to population-level immunity acquired from the earlier summer wave and also to the intervention measures that were implemented prior to and during the fall/winter wave.

positive: SARS-CoV-2 infection in primary schools in northern France: A retrospective cohort study in an area of high transmission Background: The extent of SARS-CoV-2 transmission among pupils in primary schools and their families is unknown. Methods: Between 28-30 April 2020, a retrospective cohort study was conducted among pupils, their parents and relatives, and staff of primary schools exposed to SARS-CoV-2 in February and March 2020 in a city north of Paris, France. Participants completed a questionnaire that covered sociodemographic information and history of recent symptoms. A blood sample was tested for the presence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using a flow-cytometry-based assay. Results: The infection attack rate (IAR) was 45/510 (8.8%), 3/42 (7.1%), 1/28 (3.6%), 76/641 (11.9%) and 14/119 (11.8%) among primary school pupils, teachers, non-teaching staff, parents, and relatives, respectively (P = 0.29). Prior to school closure on February 14, three SARS-CoV-2 infected pupils attended three separate schools with no secondary cases in the following 14 days among pupils, teachers and non-teaching staff of the same schools. Familial clustering of cases was documented by the high proportion of antibodies among parents and relatives of infected pupils (36/59 = 61.0% and 4/9 = 44.4%, respectively). In children, disease manifestations were mild, and 24/58 (41.4%) of infected children were asymptomatic. Interpretation: In young children, SARS-CoV-2 infection was largely mild or asymptomatic and there was no evidence of onwards transmission from children in the school setting.

positive: Children and adolescents in the CoVid-19 pandemic: Schools and daycare centers are to be opened again without restrictions. The protection of teachers, educators, carers and parents and the general hygiene rules do not conflict with this In the opinion of the medical societies of hygiene and pediatrics undersigning the present statement, the analyses published to date regarding transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the course of CoVid-19 show that children play a much less significant role in the spread of the virus than do adults. According to the findings available to date, not only do children and adolescents less frequently fall ill with CoVid-19, they also generally become less severely ill than do adults. The vast majority of infections in children and adolescents are asymptomatic or oligosymptomatic. Even the first analyses from China demonstrated that children and adolescents play a subordinate role in the transmission of the virus – not only to other children and adolescents, but also to adults. Taking into account regional infection rates and available resources, daycare centers, kindergartens and elementary schools promptly should be reopened. For children, this should be possible without excessive restrictions, such as clustering into very small groups, implementation of barrier precautions, maintaining appropriate distance from others or wearing masks. A factor more decisive than individual group size is the issue of sustaining the constancy of respective group members and the avoidance of intermixing. Children can be taught basic rules of hygiene such as handwashing and careful hygiene behavior when coming into contact with others during mealtimes and/or when using sanitary facilities. Independent of the prevention measures implemented for children and adolescents, the protection of teachers, educators and caregivers is crucial, (e.g., the maintenance of appropriate distance from others, use of medical masks, situation-dependent hand disinfection, when necessary, supported by regular pool testing). Children over the age of 10 and adolescents up to school graduation age are more capable of actively understanding and conforming to specific hygiene rules. For this group, maintaining appropriate distance from others (1.5 meters), wearing a mouth-and-nose protection (whenever they are not sitting in their assigned classroom seats) and consistent education regarding the basic rules of infection prevention may provide increased options for normalizing teaching activities. Children and adolescents suspected of infection with SARS-CoV-2 should be tested immediately in order to either confirm or rule out such an infection. Evidence of individual infections in children or students must not automatically lead to the closure of the entire daycare center or school. A detailed analysis of the chain of infection is a prerequisite for a balanced approach to infection control. The opening of schools and children’s facilities should be accompanied by specifically structured, model surveillance studies that further clarify outstanding questions about infectious disease events and hygiene control. These prospective, concomitant examinations will be essential for the purpose of evaluating and verifying the effectiveness of the required hygiene measures.

positive: COVID-19 and schooling: evaluation, assessment and accountability in times of crises—reacting quickly to explore key issues for policy, practice and research with the school barometer The crisis caused by the COVID-19 virus has far-reaching effects in the field of education, as schools were closed in March 2020 in many countries around the world. In this article, we present and discuss the School Barometer, a fast survey (in terms of reaction time, time to answer and dissemination time) that was conducted in Germany, Austria and Switzerland during the early weeks of the school lockdown to assess and evaluate the current school situation caused by COVID-19. Later, the School Barometer was extended to an international survey, and some countries conducted the survey in their own languages. In Germany, Austria and Switzerland, 7116 persons participated in the German language version: 2222 parents, 2152 students, 1949 school staff, 655 school leaders, 58 school authority and 80 members of the school support system. The aim was to gather, analyse and present data in an exploratory way to inform policy, practice and further research. In this article, we present some exemplary first results and possible implications for policy, practice and research. Furthermore, we reflect on the strengths and limitations of the School Barometer and fast surveys as well as the methodological options for data collection and analysis when using a short monitoring survey approach. Specifically, we discuss the methodological challenges associated with survey data of this kind, including challenges related to hypothesis testing, the testing of causal effects and approaches to ensure reliability and validity. By doing this, we reflect on issues of assessment, evaluation and accountability in times of crisis.

negative: The Father-Daughter Dinner Dance: A Waltz With Ethics and COVID-19 Commentary on "The Father-Daughter Dinner Dance: A Waltz With Ethics and COVID-19"

negative: Age-adjusted associations between comorbidity and outcomes of COVID-19: a review of the evidence Background: Current evidence suggests that older people and people with underlying comorbidities are at increased risk of severe disease and death following hospitalisation with COVID-19. As comorbidity increases with age, it is necessary to understand the age-adjusted relationship between comorbidity and COVID-19 outcomes, in order to enhance planning capabilities and our understanding of COVID-19. Methods: We conducted a rapid, comprehensive review of the literature up to 10 April 2020, to assess the international empirical evidence on the association between comorbidities and severe or critical care outcomes of COVID-19, after accounting for age, among hospitalised patients with COVID-19. Results: After screening 579 studies, we identified seven studies eligible for inclusion and these were synthesised narratively. All were from China. The emerging evidence base mostly indicates that after adjustment for age (and in some cases other potential confounders), obesity, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive airways disease (COPD), and cancer are all associated with worse outcomes. The largest study, using a large nationwide sample of COVID-19 patients in China, found that those with multiple comorbidities had more than twice the risk of a severe outcome or death compared with patients with no comorbidities, after adjusting for age and smoking (HR=2.59, 95% CI 1.61, 4.17). Conclusions: This review summarises for clinicians, policymakers, and academics the most robust evidence to date on this topic, to inform the management of patients and control measures for tackling the pandemic. Given the intersection of comorbidity with ethnicity and social disadvantage, these findings also have important implications for health inequalities. As the pandemic develops, further research should confirm these trends in other settings outside China and explore mechanisms by which various underlying health conditions increase risk of severe COVID-19.

negative: Senior Medical Students in the COVID‐19 Response: An Opportunity to Be Proactive On March 13th, the United States (US) declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic a national emergency. By March 18th , according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19 had spread to all 50 US states, with 7,038 cases and 97 deaths.1 The trajectory of cases mirrors that of Italy, where doctors are forced to consider who is more deserving of a ventilator.2 In response, social distancing measures are being promoted across the US in the hopes of slowing the growth in new cases, i.e. "flattening the curve." This could maintain the demand for acute care within the healthcare system's capacity to treat.3 Travel has been curtailed, conferences and concerts cancelled, and schools and universities have moved students off campus and classes online. Medical schools are following suit, with added motivators. In canceling classes and rotations, medical schools hope to: promote social distancing, limit the risk of students contracting the virus, limit the number of healthcare workers who might spread the virus to unaffected patients, minimize the teaching burden on frontline providers, and preserve personal protective equipment (PPE) for essential personnel. These are logical reasons for removing students from hospitals. But, despite our best efforts, there may come a point in the US when, as is set to happen in Italy, medical demand outpaces medical capacity.2 If the same happens here, is there a plan in place for incorporating senior medical students into emergency relief efforts?

negative: Extensive Literature Search on the ‘Effects of Copper intake levels in the gut microbiota profile of target animals, in particular piglets’

negative: A Preliminary Evaluation of the Public Risk Perception Related to the COVID-19 Health Emergency in Italy Governments faced with the spread of COVID-19 pandemic are adopting strict and severe mitigation measures to influence people’s behaviors. Public perception of health risk plays a key role in the adoption of these actions, in people’s feelings, and in their daily habits. To support decision makers from international to local levels to face with future sanitary emergencies, this study aims at investigating Italian public perceptions of health risk. To this purpose, a questionnaire was designed and administered within the period of Italian COVID-19 lockdown and quarantine to almost 9000 citizens in Italy and abroad. The obtained results highlight a significative influence that mass media play on both the level of knowledge and the feelings of the respondents. The findings also point out future variations of some perceived behaviors consequent to the COVID-19 outbreak.

negative: Contact Tracing Evaluation for COVID-19 Transmission during the Reopening Phase in a Rural College Town Contact tracing can play a vital role in controlling human-to-human transmission of a highly contagious disease such as COVID-19. To investigate the benefits and costs of contact tracing, we develop an individual-based contact-network model and a susceptible-exposed-infected-confirmed (SEIC) epidemic model for the stochastic simulations of COVID-19 transmission. We estimate the unknown parameters (reproductive ratio R0 and confirmed rate {delta}2) by using observed confirmed case data. After a two month-lockdown, states in the USA have started the reopening process. We provide simulations for four different reopening situations: under "stay-at-home" order or no reopening, 25% reopening, 50% reopening, and 75% reopening. We model contact tracing in a two-layer network by modifying the basic SEIC epidemic model. The two-layer network is composed by the contact network in the first layer and the tracing network in the second layer. Since the full contact list of an infected individual patient can be hard to obtain, then we consider different fractions of contacts from 60% to 5%. The goal of this paper is to assess the effectiveness of contact tracing to control the COVID-19 spreading in the reopening process. In terms of benefits, simulation results show that increasing the fraction of traced contacts decreases the size of the epidemic. For example, tracing 20% of the contacts is enough for all four reopening scenarios to reduce the epidemic size by half. Considering the act of quarantining susceptible households as the contact tracing cost, we have observed an interesting phenomenon. When we increase the fraction of traced contacts from 5% to 20%, the number of quarantined susceptible people increases because each individual confirmed case is mentioning more contacts. However, when we increase the fraction of traced contacts from 20% to 60%, the number of quarantined susceptible people decreases because the increment of the mentioned contacts is balanced by a reduced number of confirmed cases. The main contribution of this research lies in the investigation of the effectiveness of contact tracing for the containment of COVID-19 spreading during the initial phase of the reopening process of the USA.

negative: The impact of the great economic crisis on mental health care in Italy The great economic crisis in 2008 has affected the welfare of the population in countries such as Italy. Although there is abundant literature on the impact of the crisis on physical health, very few studies have focused on the causal implications for mental health and health care. This paper, therefore, investigates the impact of the recent economic crisis on hospital admissions for severe mental disorder at small geographic levels in Italy and assesses whether there are heterogeneous effects across areas with distinct levels of income. We exploit 9-year (2007–2015) panel data on hospital discharges, which is merged with employment and income composition at the geographic units that share similar labour market structures. Linear and dynamic panel analysis are used to identify the causal effect of rising unemployment rate on severe mental illness admissions per 100,000 residents to account for time-invariant heterogeneity. We further create discrete income levels to identify the potential socioeconomic gradients behind this effect across areas with different economic characteristics. The results show a significant impact of higher unemployment rates on admissions for severe mental disorders after controlling for relevant economic factors, and the effects are concentrated on the most economically disadvantaged areas. The results contribute to the literature of spatio-temporal variation in the broader determinants of mental health and health care utilisation and shed light on the populations that are most susceptible to the effects of the economic crisis.

negative: Scientific Opinion on the welfare of cattle kept for beef production and the welfare in intensive calf farming systems Information given in previous Opinions “Welfare of cattle kept for beef production” (SCAHAW, 2001) and “The risks of poor welfare in intensive calf farming systems” (EFSA, 2006) is updated and recent scientific evidence on the topics reviewed. Risks of poor welfare are identified using a structured analysis, and issues not identified in the SCAHAW (2001) beef Opinion, especially effects of housing and management on enteric and respiratory diseases are reviewed. The Opinion covers all systems of beef production, although the welfare of suckler cows or breeding bulls is not considered. The Chapter on beef cattle presents new evidence and recommendations in relation to heat and cold stress, mutilations and pain management, digestive disorders linked to high concentrate feeds and respiratory disorders linked to overstocking, inadequate ventilation, mixing of animals and failure of early diagnosis and treatment. Major welfare problems in cattle kept for beef production, as identified by risk assessment, were respiratory diseases linked to overstocking, inadequate ventilation, mixing of animals and failure of early diagnosis and treatment, digestive disorders linked to intensive concentrate feeding, lack of physically effective fibre in the diet, and behavioural disorders linked to inadequate floor space, and co‐mingling in the feedlot. Major hazards for white veal calves were considered to be iron‐deficiency anaemia, a direct consequence of dietary iron restriction, enteric diseases linked to high intakes of liquid feed and inadequate intake of physically effective fibre, discomfort and behavioural disorders linked to inadequate floors and floor space.

negative: A Guide to Utilization of the Microbiology Laboratory for Diagnosis of Infectious Diseases: 2018 Update by the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the American Society for Microbiology The critical nature of the microbiology laboratory in infectious disease diagnosis calls for a close, positive working relationship between the physician/advanced practice provider and the microbiologists who provide enormous value to the healthcare team. This document, developed by experts in laboratory and adult and pediatric clinical medicine, provides information on which tests are valuable and in which contexts, and on tests that add little or no value for diagnostic decisions. This document presents a system-based approach rather than specimen-based approach, and includes bloodstream and cardiovascular system infections, central nervous system infections, ocular infections, soft tissue infections of the head and neck, upper and lower respiratory infections, infections of the gastrointestinal tract, intra-abdominal infections, bone and joint infections, urinary tract infections, genital infections, and other skin and soft tissue infections; or into etiologic agent groups, including arthropod-borne infections, viral syndromes, and blood and tissue parasite infections. Each section contains introductory concepts, a summary of key points, and detailed tables that list suspected agents; the most reliable tests to order; the samples (and volumes) to collect in order of preference; specimen transport devices, procedures, times, and temperatures; and detailed notes on specific issues regarding the test methods, such as when tests are likely to require a specialized laboratory or have prolonged turnaround times. In addition, the pediatric needs of specimen management are also emphasized. There is intentional redundancy among the tables and sections, as many agents and assay choices overlap. The document is intended to serve as a guidance for physicians in choosing tests that will aid them to quickly and accurately diagnose infectious diseases in their patients.

negative: Current Evidence for Minimally Invasive Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Risk Mitigation Strategies: A Narrative Review Our objective was to review the literature surrounding the risks of viral transmission during laparoscopic surgery and propose mitigation measures to address these risks. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused surgeons the world over to re-evaluate their approach to surgical procedures given concerns over the risk of aerosolization of viral particles and exposure of operating room staff to infection. International society guidelines advise against the use of laparoscopy; however, the evidence on this topic is scant and recommendations are based on the perceived most cautious course of action. METHODS: We conducted a narrative review of the existing literature surrounding the risks of viral transmission during laparoscopic surgery and balance these risks against the benefits of minimally invasive approaches. We also propose mitigation measures to address these risks that we have adopted in our institution. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: While it is currently assumed that open surgery minimizes operating room staff exposure to the virus, our findings reveal that this may not be the case. A well-informed, evidence-based opinion is critical when making decisions regarding which operative approach to pursue, for the safety and well-being of the patient, the operating room staff, and the healthcare system at large. Minimally invasive surgical approaches offer significant advantages with respect to both patient care, and the mitigation of the risk of viral transmission during surgery, provided the appropriate equipment and expertise are present.

negative: Medical Students Are Not Essential Workers: Examining Institutional Responsibility During the COVID-19 Pandemic In light of the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) and Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME) released a joint statement in March 2020 recommending an immediate suspension of medical student participation in direct patient contact. As graduating medical students who will soon begin residency, the authors fully support this recommendation. Though paid health care workers, like residents, nurses, and environmental services staff, are essential to the management of COVID-19 patients, medical students are not. Students' continued involvement in direct patient care will contribute to SARS-CoV-2 exposures and transmissions and will waste already limited personal protective equipment. By decreasing non-essential personnel in health care settings, including medical students, medical schools will contribute to national and global efforts to "flatten the curve."The authors also assert that medical schools are responsible for ensuring medical student safety. Without the protections provided to paid health care workers, students are uniquely disadvantaged within the medical hierarchy; these inequalities must be addressed before medical students are safely reintegrated into clinical roles. Although graduating medical students and institutional leadership may worry that suspending clinical rotations might prevent students from completing graduation requirements, the authors argue the ethical obligation to "flatten the curve" supersedes usual teaching responsibilities. Therefore, the authors request further guidance from the LCME and AAMC regarding curricular exemptions/alternatives and adjusted graduation timelines. The pool of graduating medical students affected by this pause in direct patient contact represents a powerful reserve, which may soon need to be utilized as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to challenge the U.S. health care infrastructure.

negative: School-Based Telemedicine Interventions for Asthma: A Systematic Review BACKGROUND: School health systems are increasingly investing in telemedicine platforms to address acute and chronic illnesses. Asthma, the most common chronic illness in childhood, is of particular interest given its high burden on school absenteeism. OBJECTIVES: Conduct a systematic review evaluating impact of school-based telemedicine programs on improving asthma-related outcomes. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, Cochrane CENTRAL, CINAHL, ERIC, PsycINFO, Embase, and Google Scholar STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Original research, including quasi-experimental studies, without restriction on the type of telemedicine. PARTICIPANTS: School-aged pediatric patients with asthma and their families. INTERVENTIONS: School-based telemedicine. STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS: Two authors independently screened each abstract, conducted full-text review, assessed study quality, and extracted information. A third author resolved disagreements. RESULTS: Of 371 articles identified, 7 were included for the review. Outcomes of interest were asthma symptom-free days, asthma symptom frequency, quality-of-life, healthcare utilization, school absences, and spirometry. 4/7 studies reported significant increases in symptom-free days and/or decrease in symptom frequency. 5/6 reported increases in at least one quality-of-life metric, 2/7 reported a decrease in at least one healthcare utilization metric, 1/3 showed reductions in school absences, and 1/2 reported improvements in spirometry measures. LIMITATIONS: Variability in intervention designs and outcome measures make comparisons and quantitative analyses across studies difficult. Only 2/7 studies were randomized controlled trials. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS: High-quality evidence supporting the use of school-based telemedicine programs to improve patient outcomes is limited. While available evidence suggests benefit, only two comparative trials were identified, and the contribution of telemedicine to these studies’ results is unclear.

negative: Healthcare simulation to prepare for the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: Lockdown to contain COVID-19 is a window of opportunity to prevent the second wave

negative: Spatiotemporal Characteristics of COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States. BACKGROUND A range of near-real-time online/mobile mapping dashboards and applications have been used to track the COVID-19 pandemic worldwide. It remains unknown about small area-based spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States. METHODS We obtained county-based counts of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the United States from January 22 to May 13, 2020 (N=1,386,050). We characterized the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic through detecting weekly hotspots of newly confirmed cases using Spatial and Space-Time Scan Statistics and quantifying the trends of incidence of COVID-19 by county characteristics using the Joinpoint analysis. RESULTS Along with the national plateau reached in early April, COVID-19 incidence significantly decreased in the Northeast (estimated weekly percentage changes [EWPC]: -16.6%), but remained increasing in the Midwest, South and West Regions (EWPCs: 13.2%, 5.6%, and 5.7%, respectively). Higher risks of clustering and incidence of COVID-19 were consistently observed in metropolitan vs rural counties, counties closest to core airports, most populous counties, and counties with highest proportion of racial/ethnic minority counties. However, geographic differences in the incidence have shrunk since early April, driven by a significant decrease in the incidence in these counties (EWPC range: -2.0% - -4.2%) and a consistent increase in other areas (EWPC range: 1.5% - 20.3%). CONCLUSIONS To substantially decrease the nationwide incidence of COVID-19, strict social distancing measures should be continuously implemented, especially in geographic areas with increasing risks, including rural areas. Spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of COVID-19 should be considered in decision-making on the timeline of re-opening for states and localities.

negative: COVID-19: what is next for public health?

negative: Coping with COVID-19: Exposure to COVID-19 and Negative Impact on Livelihood Predict Elevated Mental Health Problems in Chinese Adults The COVID-19 pandemic might lead to more mental health problems. However, few studies have examined sleep problems, depression, and posttraumatic symptoms among the general adult population during the COVID-19 outbreak, and little is known about coping behaviors. This survey was conducted online in China from February 1st to February 10th, 2020. Quota sampling was used to recruit 2993 Chinese citizens aged ≥18 years old. Mental health problems were assessed with the Post-Traumatic Stress Disorders (PTSD) Checklist for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5), the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression inventory, and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Exposure to COVID-19 was measured with questions about residence at outbreak, personal exposure, media exposure, and impact on livelihood. General coping style was measured by the brief Coping Style Questionnaire (SCSQ). Respondents were also asked 12 additional questions about COVID-19 specific coping behaviors. Direct exposure to COVID-19 instead of the specific location of (temporary) residence within or outside the epicenter (Wuhan) of the pandemic seems important (standardized beta: 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02–0.09). Less mental health problems were also associated with less intense exposure through the media (standardized beta: −0.07, 95% CI: −0.10–−0.03). Perceived negative impact of the pandemic on livelihood showed a large effect size in predicting mental health problems (standardized beta: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.10–0.19). More use of cognitive and prosocial coping behaviors were associated with less mental health problems (standardized beta: −0.30, 95% CI: −0.34–−0.27). Our study suggests that the mental health consequences of the lockdown impact on livelihood should not be underestimated. Building on cognitive coping behaviors reappraisal or cognitive behavioral treatments may be most promising.

negative: Settler Witnessing at the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada This article offers an account of settler witnessing of residential school survivor testimony that avoids the politics of recognition and the pitfalls of colonial empathy. It knits together the concepts of bearing witness, Indigenous storytelling, and affective reckoning. Following the work of Kelly Oliver, it argues that witnessing involves a reaching beyond ourselves and responsiveness to the agency and self-determination of the other. Given the cultural genocide of residential schools, responsiveness to the other require openness to and nurturing of Indigenous ways of knowing and being. In order to illustrate the complexities and challenges of settler witnessing, the author reflects on her experiences in attending six of the TRC’s national events and, in particular, what she has learned from Frederick “Fredda” Paul, Passamaquoddy Elder, healer, storyteller, and residential school survivor. The article analyzes (1) aesthetics and emotions in the staging of TRC events and (2) making meaning over time and the temporality of transitional justice.

negative: School absenteeism among school‐aged children with medically attended acute viral respiratory illness during three influenza seasons, 2012‐2013 through 2014‐2015 BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) are common in school‐aged children, but few studies have assessed school absenteeism due to specific respiratory viruses. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate school absenteeism among children with medically attended ARI due to common viruses. METHODS: We analyzed follow‐up surveys from children seeking care for acute respiratory illness who were enrolled in the influenza vaccine effectiveness study at Marshfield Clinic during the 2012‐2013 through 2014‐2015 influenza seasons. Archived influenza‐negative respiratory swabs were retested using multiplex RT‐PCR to detect 16 respiratory virus targets. Negative binomial and logistic regression models were used to examine the association between school absence and type of respiratory viruses; endpoints included mean days absent from school and prolonged (>2 days) absence. We examined the association between influenza vaccination and school absence among children with RT‐PCR‐confirmed influenza. RESULTS: Among 1027 children, 2295 days of school were missed due to medically attended ARIs; influenza accounted for 39% of illness episodes and 47% of days missed. Mean days absent were highest for influenza (0.96‐1.19) and lowest for coronavirus (0.62). Children with B/Yamagata infection were more likely to report prolonged absence than children with A/H1N1 or A/H3N2 infection [OR (95% CI): 2.1 (1.0, 4.5) and 1.7 (1.0, 2.9), respectively]. Among children with influenza, vaccination status was not associated with prolonged absence. CONCLUSIONS: School absenteeism due to medically attended ARIs varies by viral infection. Influenza B infections accounted for the greatest burden of absenteeism.

negative: Anticipating the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB patients and TB control programmes The COVID-19 pandemic has currently overtaken every other health issue throughout the world. There are numerous ways in which this will impact existing public health issues. Here we reflect on the interactions between COVID-19 and tuberculosis (TB), which still ranks as the leading cause of death from a single infectious disease globally. There may be grave consequences for existing and undiagnosed TB patients globally, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs) where TB is endemic and health services poorly equipped. TB control programmes will be strained due to diversion of resources, and an inevitable loss of health system focus, such that some activities cannot or will not be prioritised. This is likely to lead to a reduction in quality of TB care and worse outcomes. Further, TB patients often have underlying co-morbidities and lung damage that may make them prone to more severe COVID-19. The symptoms of TB and COVID-19 can be similar, with for example cough and fever. Not only can this create diagnostic confusion, but it could worsen the stigmatization of TB patients especially in LMICs, given the fear of COVID-19. Children with TB are a vulnerable group especially likely to suffer as part of the “collateral damage”. There will be a confounding of symptoms and epidemiological data through co-infection, as happens already with TB–HIV, and this will require unpicking. Lessons for COVID-19 could be learned from the vast experience of running global TB control programmes, while the astonishingly rapid and relatively well co-ordinated response to COVID-19 demonstrates how existing programmes could be significantly improved.

negative: A potential role for Galectin-3 inhibitors in the treatment of COVID-19 The outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization. With no standard of care for the treatment of COVID-19, there is an urgent need to identify therapies that may be effective in treatment. Recent evidence has implicated the development of cytokine release syndrome as the major cause of fatality in COVID-19 patients, with elevated levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) observed in patients. Galectin-3 (Gal-3) is an animal lectin that has been implicated in the disease process of a variety of inflammatory conditions. Inhibitors of the small molecule Gal-3 have been shown to reduce the levels of both IL-6 and TNF-α in vitro and have shown anti-inflammatory effects in vivo. Additionally, a key domain in the spike protein of β-coronaviridae, a genus which includes SARS-CoV2, is nearly identical in morphology to human Gal-3. These spike proteins are critical for the virus’ entry into host cells. Here we provide a systematic review of the available literature and an impetus for further research on the use of Gal-3 inhibitors in the treatment of COVID-19. Further, we propose a dual mechanism by which Gal-3 inhibition may be beneficial in the treatment of COVID-19, both suppressing the host inflammatory response and impeding viral attachment to host cells.

negative: Impact of policy interventions and social distancing on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the United States Background: Policymakers have employed various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay-at-home orders and school closures to limit the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). However, these measures are not without cost, and careful analysis is critical to quantify their impact on disease spread and guide future initiatives. This study aims to measure the impact of NPIs on the effective reproductive number (Rt) and other COVID-19 outcomes in U.S. states. Methods: In order to standardize the stage of disease spread in each state, this study analyzes the weeks immediately after each state reached 500 cases. The primary outcomes were average Rt in the week following 500 cases and doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases. Linear and logistic regressions were performed in R to assess the impact of various NPIs while controlling for population density, GDP, and certain health metrics. This analysis was repeated for deaths with doubling time from 50 to 100 deaths and included several healthcare infrastructure control variables. Results: States that had a stay-at-home order in place at the time of their 500th case are associated with lower average Rt the following week compared to states without a stay-at-home order (p < 0.001) and are significantly less likely to have an Rt>1 (OR 0.07, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.37, p = 0.004). These states also experienced a significantly longer doubling time from 500 to 1000 cases (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.72, p = 0.004). States in the highest quartile of average time spent at home were also slower to reach 1000 cases than those in the lowest quartile (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.53, p = 0.002). Discussion: Few studies have analyzed the effect of statewide stay-at-home orders, school closures, and other social distancing measures in the U.S., which has faced the largest COVID-19 case burden. States with stay-at-home orders have a 93% decrease in the odds of having a positive Rt at a standardized point in disease burden. States that plan to scale back such measures should carefully monitor transmission metrics. Key words: COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Coronavirus, Public Policy, Social Distancing, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, Stay-at-home Order, Shelter-in-place.

negative: Redesigning a large school-based clinical trial in response to changes in community practice Background Asthma exacerbations are seasonal with the greatest risk in elementary-age students occurring shortly after returning to school following summer break. Recent research suggests that this seasonality in children is primarily related to viral respiratory tract infections. Regular hand washing is the most effective method to prevent the spread of viral respiratory infections; unfortunately, achieving hand washing recommendations in schools is difficult. Therefore, we designed a study to evaluate the effect of hand sanitizer use in elementary schools on exacerbations among children with asthma. Purpose To describe the process of redesigning the trial in response to changes in the safety profile of the hand sanitizer as well as changes in hand hygiene practice in the schools. Methods The original trial was a randomized, longitudinal, subject-blinded, placebo-controlled, community-based crossover trial. The primary aim was to evaluate the incremental effectiveness of hand sanitizer use in addition to usual hand hygiene practices to decrease asthma exacerbations in elementary-age children. Three events occurred that required major modifications to the original study protocol: (1) safety concerns arose regarding the hand sanitizer’s active ingredient; (2) no substitute placebo hand sanitizer was available; and (3) community preferences changed regarding hand hygiene practices in the schools. Results The revised protocol is a randomized, longitudinal, community-based crossover trial. The primary aim is to evaluate the incremental effectiveness of a two-step hand hygiene process (hand hygiene education plus institutionally provided alcohol-based hand sanitizer) versus usual care to decrease asthma exacerbations. Enrollment was completed in May 2009 with 527 students from 30 schools. The intervention began in August 2009 and will continue through May 2011. Study results should be available at the end of 2011. Limitations The changed design does not allow us to directly measure the effectiveness of hand sanitizer use as a supplement to traditional hand washing practices. Conclusions The need to balance a rigorous study design with one that is acceptable to the community requires investigators to be actively involved with community collaborators and able to adapt study protocols to fit changing community practices.

negative: Is there hope for the Hajj? Using the SIR Model to Forecast COVID-19 Progression in the City of Makkah Abstract: Background: The Hajj is the largest annual gathering in the world, and it is a very important event for every Muslim. Makkah annually receives three million pilgrims who perform Hajj. Although precautionary measures have been taken in Saudi Arabia to slow down the spread of COVID-19, such as locking down the most affected cities, practicing social distancing, and applying the infection-control precautions, the number of cases has increased. The total confirmed number of cases in Makkah was 10,709 with 127 deaths as of May 16, 2020. Aims of the study: Forecasting the COVID-19 progression in the city of Makkah will help the policymakers decide if the Hajj will be able to operate this year. Thus, to see a clear picture of the fight against COVID-19 for the economy and healthcare industry in Saudi Arabia, specifically in Makkah, the SIR model will predict COVID-19 progression in the city of Makkah. Method: The Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) model has been used to track the transmission dynamics and growth among the city of Makkah. The growth index was calculated, according to the data from March 16 until May 9. The estimated vital epidemiological parameters, such as forecasting works and transmission rates, were done. Result: The data showed an interesting result about the peak of the disease progression. It is projected to occur around the 12th day after running the model. According to the model, the peak time will be around the 22nd of May. Then, the number of cases will start to decrease. Conclusion: Using the SIR model, the result predicts the disease progression peak and an estimated end of COVID-19 in the city of Makkah to help the policymakers decide if the Hajj will be able to operate this year.

negative: Physical distancing or social distancing: that is the question

negative: Severe COVID-19 in the young and healthy: monogenic inborn errors of immunity?

negative: To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for assessing the community-wide impact of mask use by the general, asymptomatic public, a portion of which may be asymptomatically infectious. Model simulations, using data relevant to COVID-19 dynamics in the US states of New York and Washington, suggest that broad adoption of even relatively ineffective face masks may meaningfully reduce community transmission of COVID-19 and decrease peak hospitalizations and deaths. Moreover, mask use decreases the effective transmission rate in nearly linear proportion to the product of mask effectiveness (as a fraction of potentially infectious contacts blocked) and coverage rate (as a fraction of the general population), while the impact on epidemiologic outcomes (death, hospitalizations) is highly nonlinear, indicating masks could synergize with other non-pharmaceutical measures. Notably, masks are found to be useful with respect to both preventing illness in healthy persons and preventing asymptomatic transmission. Hypothetical mask adoption scenarios, for Washington and New York state, suggest that immediate near universal (80%) adoption of moderately (50%) effective masks could prevent on the order of 17--45% of projected deaths over two months in New York, while decreasing the peak daily death rate by 34--58%, absent other changes in epidemic dynamics. Even very weak masks (20% effective) can still be useful if the underlying transmission rate is relatively low or decreasing: In Washington, where baseline transmission is much less intense, 80% adoption of such masks could reduce mortality by 24--65% (and peak deaths 15--69%), compared to 2--9% mortality reduction in New York (peak death reduction 9--18%). Our results suggest use of face masks by the general public is potentially of high value in curtailing community transmission and the burden of the pandemic. The community-wide benefits are likely to be greatest when face masks are used in conjunction with other non-pharmaceutical practices (such as social-distancing), and when adoption is nearly universal (nation-wide) and compliance is high.

negative: Disease experts call for nationwide closure of U.S. schools and businesses to slow coronavirus Infectious disease experts across the United States are calling for tougher enforcement of social distancing measures to slow the spread of the coronavirus behind the COVID-19 pandemic, including a nationwide closure of schools and nonessential businesses Such a move would go beyond the spotty closures now in place in some states and major cities

negative: On the Spread of Coronavirus Infection. A Mechanistic Model to Rate Strategies for Disease Management Effective policy making based on ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is an urgent issue. We present a mathematical model describing the viral infection dynamics, which reveals two transmissibility parameters influenced by the management strategies in the area for control of the current pandemic. The parameters readily yield the peak infection rate and means for flattening the curve. Model parameters are shown to be correlated to different management strategies by employing machine learning enabling the comparison among different strategies. Treatment of population data with the model shows that restricted non-essential business closure, school closing and strictures on mass gathering influence the spread of infection. While a rational strategy for initiation of an economic reboot would call for a wider perspective of the local economics, the model can speculate on its timing based on the status of the infection as reflected by its potential for an unacceptably renewed viral onslaught.

negative: Analysis of misinformation during the COVID-19 outbreak in China: cultural, social and political entanglements COVID-19 resulted in an infodemic, which could erode public trust, impede virus containment, and outlive the pandemic itself. The evolving and fragmented media landscape is a key driver of the spread of misinformation. Using misinformation identified by the fact-checking platform by Tencent and posts on Weibo, our results showed that the evolution of misinformation follows an issue-attention cycle, pertaining to topics such as city lockdown, cures, and preventions, and school reopening. Sources of authority weigh in on these topics, but their influence is complicated by peoples' pre-existing beliefs and cultural practices. Finally, social media has a complicated relationship with established or legacy media systems. Sometimes they reinforce each other, but in general, social media may have a topic cycle of its own making. Our findings shed light on the distinct characteristics of misinformation during the COVID-19 and offer insights into combating misinformation in China and across the world at large.

negative: The Covid-19 epidemic: are there lights at the end of the long tunnel?

negative: Cumulative Merging Percolation and the Epidemic Transition of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible Model in Networks We consider cumulative merging percolation (CMP), a long-range percolation process describing the iterative merging of clusters in networks, depending on their mass and mutual distance. For a specific class of CMP processes, which represents a generalization of degree-ordered percolation, we derive a scaling solution on uncorrelated complex networks, unveiling the existence of diverse mechanisms leading to the formation of a percolating cluster. The scaling solution accurately reproduces universal properties of the transition. This finding is used to infer the critical properties of the susceptible-infected-susceptible model for epidemics in infinite and finite power-law distributed networks. Here, discrepancies between analytical approaches and numerical results regarding the finite-size scaling of the epidemic threshold are a crucial open issue in the literature. We find that the scaling exponent assumes a nontrivial value during a long preasymptotic regime. We calculate this value, finding good agreement with numerical evidence. We also show that the crossover to the true asymptotic regime occurs for sizes much beyond currently feasible simulations. Our findings allow us to rationalize and reconcile all previously published results (both analytical and numerical), thus ending a long-standing debate.

negative: Do Quarantine Experiences and Attitudes Towards COVID-19 Affect the Distribution of Mental Health in China? A Quantile Regression Analysis While quarantine has become a widely used control strategy during the outbreak of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), empirical research on whether and to what extent quarantine and attitudes towards COVID-19 affect mental health is scant. Using a cross-sectional online survey, this paper is the first from the Chinese outbreak to investigate how quarantine experiences and attitudes towards COVID-19 are related to mental health, and how these relationships change across the distribution of mental health scores. Using quantile regression analysis, we found that home self-quarantine is associated with a decrease in depression and an increase in happiness, while community-level quarantine is associated with decreased happiness, especially for those in the lower happiness quantile. We also found that favorable attitudes towards COVID-19 regarding the credibility of real-time updates and confidence in the epidemic control are associated with lower levels of depression and higher levels of happiness. These effects are stronger in the upper quantile of depression and the median quantile of happiness.

negative: Understanding the Promises and Hurdles of Metagenomic Next-Generation Sequencing as a Diagnostic Tool for Infectious Diseases Agnostic metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) has emerged as a promising single, universal pathogen detection method for infectious disease diagnostics. This methodology allows for identification and genomic characterization of bacteria, fungi, parasites, and viruses without the need for a priori knowledge of a specific pathogen directly from clinical specimens. Although there are increasing reports of mNGS successes, several hurdles need to be addressed, such as differentiation of colonization from infection, extraneous sources of nucleic acid, method standardization, and data storage, protection, analysis, and interpretation. As more commercial and clinical microbiology laboratories develop mNGS assays, it is important for treating practitioners to understand both the power and limitations of this method as a diagnostic tool for infectious diseases.

negative: County-level factors influence the trajectory of Covid-19 incidence With new cases of Covid-19 surging in the United States, we need to better understand how the spread of novel coronavirus varies across all segments of the population. We use hierarchical exponential growth curve modeling techniques to examine whether community social and economic characteristics uniquely influence the incidence of Covid-19 cases in the urban built environment. We show that, as of May 3, 2020, confirmed coronavirus infections are concentrated along demographic and socioeconomic lines in New York City and surrounding areas, the epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States. Furthermore, we see evidence that, after the onset of the pandemic, timely enactment of physical distancing measures such as school closures is imperative in order to limit the extent of the coronavirus spread in the population. Public health authorities must impose nonpharmaceutical measures early on in the pandemic and consider community-level factors that associate with a greater risk of viral transmission.

negative: Measure what matters: counts of hospitalized patients are a better metric for health system capacity planning for a reopening Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic requires accurate forecasting of health system capacity requirements using readily available inputs. We examined whether testing and hospitalization data could help quantify the anticipated burden on the health system given shelter-in-place (SIP) order. We find a marked slowdown in the hospitalization rate within ten days of SIP even as cases continued to rise. We also find a shift towards younger patients in the age distribution of those testing positive for COVID-19 over the four weeks of SIP. The impact of this shift is a divergence between increasing positive case confirmations and slowing new hospitalizations, both of which affects the demand on health systems. Without using local hospitalization rates and the age distribution of positive patients, current models are likely to overestimate the resource burden of COVID-19. It is imperative that health systems start using these data to quantify effects of SIP and aid reopening planning.

negative: The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies About one month after the COVID-19 epidemic peaked in Mainland China and SARS-CoV-2 migrated from China westward to Europe and then the U.S., the epidemiological data begin to provide important insights into the risks associated with the disease and the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Like other respiratory diseases, including the 2003 SARS epidemic, the virus remains only about two months in any given population, yet the peak incidence and the lethality can vary. The data suggest that at least two strains of the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 virus have evolved during its migration from Mainland China to Europe. South Korea, Iran, and Italy were hit by the more dangerous "SKII" variant. While the epidemic in China is about to end, and in Europe about to level off, the course of the epidemic in the younger US population is still increasing and the peak level will likely depend on which of the strains has entered the US first. The same models that help us to understand the epidemic also help us to choose prevention strategies. While containment merely prolongs the time the disease circulates until the proportion of immune people is high enough for "herd immunity", reducing disease severity, either by vaccination or by early treatment of complications, is the best strategy against a respiratory virus disease.

negative: Where are the ECDC and the EU-wide responses in the COVID-19 pandemic?

negative: A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with 'lock-down' in managing the COVID-19 pandemic COVID-19 is characterized by an infectious presymptomatic period,when newly infected individuals can unwittingly infect others We are interested in what benefits facemasks could offer as a nonpharmaceutical intervention, especially in the settings where high-technology interventions, such as contact tracing using mobile apps or rapid case detection via molecular tests, are not sustainable Here, we report the results of two mathematical models and show that facemask use by the public could make a major contribution to reducing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic Our intention is to provide a simple modelling framework to examine the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics when facemasks are worn by the public, with or without imposed 'lock-down' periods Our results are illustrated for a number of plausible values for parameter ranges describing epidemiological processes and mechanistic properties of facemasks, in the absence of current measurements for these values We show that, when facemasks are used by the public all the time (not just from when symptoms first appear), the effective reproduction number, Re, can be decreased below 1, leading to the mitigation of epidemic spread Under certain conditions, when lock-down periods are implemented in combination with 100% facemask use, there is vastly less disease spread, secondary and tertiary waves are flattened and the epidemic is brought under control The effect occurs even when it is assumed that facemasks are only 50% effective at capturing exhaled virus inoculum with an equal or lower efficiency on inhalation Facemask use by the public has been suggested to be ineffective because wearers may touch their facesmore often, thus increasing the probability of contracting COVID-19 For completeness, our models show that facemask adoption provides population-level benefits, even in circumstances where wearers are placed at increased risk At the time of writing, facemask use by the public has not been recommended in many countries, but a recommendation for wearing face-coverings has just been announced for Scotland Even if facemask use began after the start of the first lock-down period, our results show that benefits could still accrue by reducing the risk of the occurrence of further COVID-19 waves We examine the effects of different rates of facemask adoption without lock-down periods and show that, even at lower levels of adoption, benefits accrue to the facemask wearers These analyses may explain why some countries, where adoption of facemask use by the public is around 100%, have experienced significantly lower rates of COVID-19 spread and associated deaths We conclude that facemask use by the public, when used in combination with physical distancing or periods of lock-down, may provide an acceptable way of managing the COVID- 19 pandemic and re-opening economic activity These results are relevant to the developed as well as the developing world, where large numbers of people are resource poor, but fabrication of home-made, effective facemasks is possible A key message from our analyses to aid the widespread adoption of facemasks would be: 'my mask protects you, your mask protects me' [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical & Engineering Sciences is the property of Royal Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use This abstract may be abridged No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract (Copyright applies to all Abstracts )

negative: Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19 Abstract The rapid spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) has dramatically impacted financial markets all over the world. It has created an unprecedented level of risk, causing investors to suffer significant loses in a very short period of time. This paper aims to map the general patterns of country-specific risks and systemic risks in the global financial markets. It also analyses the potential consequence of policy interventions, such as the US’ decision to implement a zero-percent interest rate and unlimited quantitative easing (QE), and how these policies may introduce further uncertainties into global financial markets.

negative: How efficient are the lockdown measures taken for mitigating the Covid-19 epidemic? Various lockdown measures have been taken in different countries to mitigate the Covid-19 pandemic. But, for citizens, it is not always simple to understand how these measures have been taken. Should they have been more (or less) restrictive? Should the lockdown period have been longer (or shorter)? What would have been the benefits of starting to confine the population earlier? To provide some elements of response to these questions, we propose a simple behavior model for the government decision-making operation. Although simple and obviously improvable, the proposed model has the merit to implement in a pragmatic and insightful way the tradeoff between health and macroeconomic aspects. For a given tradeoff between the assumed cost functions for the economic and health impacts, it is then possible to determine the best lockdown starting date, the best lockdown duration, and the optimal severity levels during and after lockdown. The numerical analysis is based on a standard SEIR model and performed for the case of France but the adopted approach can be applied to any country. Our analysis, based on the proposed model, shows that for France it would have been possible to have just a quarter of the actual number of people infected (over [March 1, August 31]), while simultaneously having a Gross Domestic Product loss about 30% smaller than the one expected with the current policy.

negative: How accurate is our picture of the pandemic?

negative: Calculated grades, predicted grades, forecasted grades and actual A-level grades: Reliability, correlations and predictive validity in medical school applicants, undergraduates, and postgraduates in a time of COVID-19 Calculated A-level grades will replace actual, attained A-levels and other Key Stage 5 qualifications in 2020 in the UK as a result of the COVID 19 pandemic. This paper assesses the likely consequences for medical schools in particular, beginning with an overview of the research literature on predicted grades, concluding that calculated grades are likely to correlate strongly with the predicted grades that schools currently provide on UCAS applications. A notable absence from the literature is evidence on whether predicted grades are better or worse than actual grades in predicting university outcomes. This paper provides such evidence on the reduced predictive validity of predicted A-level grades in comparison with actual A-level grades. The present study analyses the extensive data on predicted and actual grades which are available in UKMED (United Kingdom Medical Education Database), a large-scale administrative dataset containing longitudinal data from medical school application, through undergraduate and then postgraduate training. In particular, predicted A-level grades as well as actual A-level grades are available, along with undergraduate outcomes and postgraduate outcomes which can be used to assess predictive validity of measures collected at selection. This study looks at two UKMED datasets. In the first dataset we compare actual and predicted A-level grades in 237,030 A-levels taken by medical school applicants between 2010 and 2018. 48.8% of predicted grades were accurate, grades were over-predicted in 44.7% of cases and under-predicted in 6.5% of cases. Some A-level subjects, General Studies in particular, showed a higher degree of over-estimation. Similar over-prediction was found for Extended Project Qualifications, and for SQA Advanced Highers. The second dataset considered 22,150 18-year old applicants to medical school in 2010 to 2014, who had both predicted and actual A-level grades. 12,600 students entered medical school and had final year outcomes available. In addition there were postgraduate outcomes for 1,340 doctors. Undergraduate outcomes are predicted significantly better by actual, attained A-level grades than by predicted A-level grades, as is also the case for postgraduate outcomes. Modelling the effect of selecting only on calculated grades suggests that because of the lesser predictive ability of predicted grades, medical school cohorts for the 2020 entry year are likely to under-attain, with 13% more gaining the equivalent of the current lowest decile of performance, and 16% fewer gaining the equivalent of the current top decile, effects which are then likely to follow through into postgraduate training. The problems of predicted/calculated grades can to some extent, although not entirely, be ameliorated, by taking U(K)CAT, BMAT, and perhaps other measures into account to supplement calculated grades. Medical schools will probably also need to consider whether additional teaching is needed for entrants who are struggling, or might have missed out on important aspects of A-level teaching, with extra support being needed, so that standards are maintained.

negative: Non-Contagious, Second COVID-19 Infection: Implications for Organ Donation Eligibility As of May 19, 2020, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) shared evidence indicating an inability for COVID-19 patients having contracted a second infection to spread the virus. Viral samples from re-infected patients could not be grown in culture, a sign of dead virus particles, attributable to neutralizing antibodies. Accordingly, a negative COVID-19 test may no longer be mandated for returning to school or work, or even donating organs. The transplant community should consider lifting donation constraints on patients testing positive for a second COVID-19 infection.

negative: Correlation of population mortality of COVID-19 and testing coverage: a comparison among 36 OECD countries and Taiwan Although testing is widely regarded as critical to fighting the Covid-19 pandemic, what measure and level of testing best reflects successful infection control remains unresolved. Our aim was to compare the sensitivity of two testing metrics--population testing number and testing coverage--to population mortality outcomes and identify a benchmark for testing adequacy with respect to population mortality and capture of potential disease burden. This ecological study aggregated publicly available data through April 12 on testing and outcomes related to COVID-19 across 36 OECD (Organization for Economic Development) countries and Taiwan. All OECD countries and Taiwan were included in this population-based study as a proxy for countries with highly developed economic and healthcare infrastructure. Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated between the aforementioned metrics and following outcome measures: deaths per 1 million people, case fatality rate, and case proportion of critical illness. Fractional polynomials were used to generate scatter plots to model the relationship between the testing metrics and outcomes. Testing coverage, but not population testing number, was highly correlated with population mortality (rs= -0.79, P=5.975e-09 vs rs =- 0.3, P=0.05) and case fatality rate (rs= -0.67, P=9.067e-06 vs rs = -0.21, P=0.20). A testing coverage threshold of 15-45 signified adequate testing: below 15, testing coverage was associated with exponentially increasing population mortality, whereas above 45, increased testing did not yield significant incremental mortality benefit. Testing coverage was better than population testing number in explaining country performance and can be used as an early and sensitive indicator of testing adequacy and disease burden. This may be particularly useful as countries consider re-opening their economies.

negative: Infoveillance based on Social Sensors to Analyze the impact of Covid19 in South American Population Infoveillance is an application from Infodemiology field with the aim to monitor public health and create public policies. Social sensor is the people providing thought, ideas through electronic communication channels(i.e. Internet). The actual scenario is related to tackle the covid19 impact over the world, many countries have the infrastructure, scientists to help the growth and countries took actions to decrease the impact. South American countries have a different context about Economy, Health and Research, so Infoveillance can be a useful tool to monitor and improve the decisions and be more strategical. The motivation of this work is analyze the capital of Spanish Speakers Countries in South America using a Text Mining Approach with Twitter as data source. The preliminary results helps to understand what happens two weeks ago and opens the analysis from different perspectives i.e. Economics, Social.

negative: Evidence from internet search data shows information-seeking responses to news of local COVID-19 cases The COVID-19 outbreak is a global pandemic with community circulation in many countries, including the United States, with confirmed cases in all states. The course of this pandemic will be shaped by how governments enact timely policies and disseminate information and by how the public reacts to policies and information. Here, we examine information-seeking responses to the first COVID-19 case public announcement in a state. Using an event study framework for all US states, we show that such news increases collective attention to the crisis right away. However, the elevated level of attention is short-lived, even though the initial announcements are followed by increasingly strong policy measures. Specifically, searches for "coronavirus" increased by about 36% (95% CI: 27 to 44%) on the day immediately after the first case announcement but decreased back to the baseline level in less than a week or two. We find that people respond to the first report of COVID-19 in their state by immediately seeking information about COVID-19, as measured by searches for coronavirus, coronavirus symptoms, and hand sanitizer. On the other hand, searches for information regarding community-level policies (e.g., quarantine, school closures, testing) or personal health strategies (e.g., masks, grocery delivery, over-the-counter medications) do not appear to be immediately triggered by first reports. These results are representative of the study period being relatively early in the epidemic, and more-elaborate policy responses were not yet part of the public discourse. Further analysis should track evolving patterns of responses to subsequent flows of public information.

negative: A Tale of Two Communities: Characterizing Reddit Response to COVID-19 through /r/China_Flu and /r/Coronavirus The COVID-19 pandemic has deeply impacted people's lives around the globe. During the extended lockdowns caused by the pandemic, online communities are crucial for people to access information and share experiences. In particular, two"new"communities have emerged on Reddit: /r/China_flu and /r/Coronavirus. By studying activities and users in these two communities, we provide a characterization of people's responses to COVID-19 on Reddit. First, we find that user activity peaks around March 17, when the World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 as a pandemic. Shortly after that, the activity levels of both communities have been declining week by week. We further illustrate the central role of these two communities in the emergence of COVID-related communities. Second, we study the differences between these two communities. /r/Coronavirus is recommended as the official community for COVID-19 on Reddit, while /r/China_flu adopts a loose moderation practice. As a result, we observe that these two communities are gradually growing apart and more extremism is being found in /r/China_flu. Finally, we examine the spillover effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on user activity across the entire Reddit platform. Our results show significant changes in user activities outside COVID-related communities. In subreddits related to finance, food, and countries/cities, user activity is recovering to the pre-pandemic level in late April and May as countries reopen, but subreddits related to travel and sports remain highly impacted and show lower activity levels than the pre-pandemic period. Our work highlights the strength of Reddit as a source for understanding public reactions to COVID-19 and the importance of content moderation on the Internet during a pandemic.

negative: Decision-making on management of ms and nmosd patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: A latin american survey. BACKGROUND The emergence of COVID-19 and its vertiginous spreading speed represents a unique challenge to neurologists managing multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD). The need for data on the impact of the virus on these patients grows rapidly. There is an urgent necessity of sharing information to enable evidence-based decision making on the clinical management. There are no data on what physicians are doing on clinical practice in Latin American countries. AIM to investigate current management opinion of Latin American MS and/or NMOSD expert neurologists based on their experience and recommendations. METHODS we developed a voluntary web-based survey based on hypothetical situations that these patients may encounter, while taking into account the potential risk of developing severe COVID-19 infection. RESULTS 60% of the experts had the possibility of monitoring their patients by telemedicine. Most neurologists postpone magnetic resonance. Laboratory blood tests delay is associated with the type of treatment. Platform therapies, dimethyl-fumarate and natalizumab are considered safe options to initiate in naive patients. CONCLUSION decision-making about MS and NMOSD patients has become even more complex in order to adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic. Risks and benefits should be taken into consideration throughout the patient follow-up.

negative: Research on the Influence of Information Diffusion on the Transmission of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) With the rapid development of mobile Internet in China, the information of the epidemic is full-time and holographic, and the role of information diffusion in epidemic control is increasingly prominent. At the same time, the publicity of all kinds of big data also provides the possibility to explore the impact of media information diffusion on disease transmission. This paper explores the mechanism of the influence of information diffusion on the spread of the novel coronavirus, develops a model of the interaction between information diffusion and disease transmission based on the SIR model, and empirically tests the role and mechanism of information diffusion in the spread of COCID-19 by using econometric method. The result shows that there was a significant negative correlation between the information diffusion and the spread of the novel coronavirus; The result of robust test shows that the spread of both epidemic information and protection information hindered the further spread of the epidemic.

negative: Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel Coronavirus A pandemic of a novel Coronavirus emerged in December of 2019 (COVID-19), causing devastating public health impact across the world. In the absence of a safe and effective vaccine or antivirals, strategies for controlling and mitigating the burden of the pandemic are focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as social-distancing, contact-tracing, quarantine, isolation, and the use of face-masks in public. We develop a new mathematical model for assessing the population-level impact of the aforementioned control and mitigation strategies. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the disease-free equilibrium is locally-asymptotically stable if a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number (denoted by [Formula: see text]), is less than unity. Simulations of the model, using data relevant to COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the US state of New York and the entire US, show that the pandemic burden will peak in mid and late April, respectively. The worst-case scenario projections for cumulative mortality (based on the baseline levels of anti-COVID non-pharmaceutical interventions considered in the study) decrease dramatically by 80% and 64%, respectively, if the strict social-distancing measures implemented are maintained until the end of May or June, 2020. The duration and timing of the relaxation or termination of the strict social-distancing measures are crucially-important in determining the future trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study shows that early termination of the strict social-distancing measures could trigger a devastating second wave with burden similar to those projected before the onset of the strict social-distancing measures were implemented. The use of efficacious face-masks (such as surgical masks, with estimated efficacy [Formula: see text] 70%) in public could lead to the elimination of the pandemic if at least 70% of the residents of New York state use such masks in public consistently (nationwide, a compliance of at least 80% will be required using such masks). The use of low efficacy masks, such as cloth masks (of estimated efficacy less than 30%), could also lead to significant reduction of COVID-19 burden (albeit, they are not able to lead to elimination). Combining low efficacy masks with improved levels of the other anti-COVID-19 intervention strategies can lead to the elimination of the pandemic. This study emphasizes the important role social-distancing plays in curtailing the burden of COVID-19. Increases in the adherence level of social-distancing protocols result in dramatic reduction of the burden of the pandemic, and the timely implementation of social-distancing measures in numerous states of the US may have averted a catastrophic outcome with respect to the burden of COVID-19. Using face-masks in public (including the low efficacy cloth masks) is very useful in minimizing community transmission and burden of COVID-19, provided their coverage level is high. The masks coverage needed to eliminate COVID-19 decreases if the masks-based intervention is combined with the strict social-distancing strategy.

negative: Chronic work stress and exhaustion is associated with higher allostastic load in female school teachers. Epidemiological studies have shown that chronic work stress or unfavourable psychosocial work conditions are prospectively associated with different adverse health outcomes. The aim of the present cross-sectional study was to investigate the relationship between work-related chronic stress as well as exhaustion and a cumulative measure of physiological wear-and-tear called allostastic load (AL). AL could be a possible biological pathway for how chronic work stress and exhaustion lead to health impairments in the long run. As the teaching profession has been proposed to be a potentially high stressful occupation, chronic work stress (effort-reward-imbalance) and exhaustion were assessed in 104 female school teachers. AL was first analyzed according to McEwen's classical model comprised of ten parameters including cortisol, epinephrine and norepinephrine, dehydroepiandrosterone-sulphate (DHEA-S), waist/hip-ratio (WHR), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), total cholesterol/HDL-ratio, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Additionally it was extended to include tumor-necrosis-factor-alpha (TNF-alpha), C-reactive protein (CRP), fibrinogen, D-dimer, percent-body-fat, triglycerides, and glucose levels. A substantial proportion of our sample was highly exhausted whereas relatively few teachers showed high effort-reward-imbalance. AL scores were significantly higher in women high on effort-reward-imbalance or suffering from exhaustion. Although all teachers had been in a good health status, chronic work stress as well as exhaustion appears to be associated with changes in a multi-system summary indicator of physiological risk.

negative: Ideas and the origin of evidence during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: "Run distancing" in the era of COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Preparedness and Preventive Behaviors for a Pandemic Disaster Caused by COVID-19 in Serbia Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The disease was first detected in Wuhan, the capital of China’s Hubei province, in December 2019 and has since spread globally, especially to Europe and North America, resulting in the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic disaster of 2019–2020. Although most cases have mild symptoms, there is some progression to viral pneumonia and multi-organ failure and death. More than 4.6 million cases have been registered across 216 countries and territories as of 19 April 2020, resulting in more than 311,000 deaths. Risk to communities with continued widespread disease transmission depends on characteristics of the virus, including how well it spreads between people; the severity of resulting illness; and the medical or other measures available to control the impact of the virus (for example, vaccines or medications that can treat the illness) and the relative success of these. In the absence of vaccines or medications, non-pharmaceutical interventions were the most important response strategy based on community interventions such as person-to-person distancing, mask-wearing, isolation and good personal hygiene (hand-washing)—all of which have been demonstrated can reduce the impact of this seemingly unstoppable globally spreading natural disaster. This paper presents the results of quantitative research regarding the level of citizen preparedness for disasters caused by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Serbia. The survey was conducted using a questionnaire that was requested and then collected online among 975 respondents during disaster in April 2020. The questionnaire examined citizens’ basic socio-economic and demographic characteristics, their knowledge, preparedness, risk perception and preventive measures taken individually and as a community to prevent the death and widespread transmission of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in the Republic of Serbia. Based on the findings that there are major differences in the public’s perception of risks posed by communicable disease threats such as presented by COVID-19, emergency management agencies should use these differences to develop targeted strategies to enhance community and national preparedness by promoting behavioral change and improving risk management decision-making.

negative: Robustness and fragility of the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic models on complex networks We analyze two alterations of the standard susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics that preserve the central properties of spontaneous healing and infection capacity of a vertex increasing unlimitedly with its degree. All models have the same epidemic thresholds in mean-field theories but depending on the network properties, simulations yield a dual scenario, in which the epidemic thresholds of the modified SIS models can be either dramatically altered or remain unchanged in comparison with the standard dynamics. For uncorrelated synthetic networks having a power-law degree distribution with exponent [Formula: see text] , the SIS dynamics are robust exhibiting essentially the same outcomes for all investigated models. A threshold in better agreement with the heterogeneous rather than quenched mean-field theory is observed in the modified dynamics for exponent [Formula: see text]. Differences are more remarkable for [Formula: see text] , where a finite threshold is found in the modified models in contrast with the vanishing threshold of the original one. This duality is elucidated in terms of epidemic lifespan on star graphs. We verify that the activation of the modified SIS models is triggered in the innermost component of the network given by a [Formula: see text]-core decomposition for [Formula: see text] while it happens only for [Formula: see text] in the standard model. For [Formula: see text] , the activation in the modified dynamics is collective involving essentially the whole network while it is triggered by hubs in the standard SIS. The duality also appears in the finite-size scaling of the critical quantities where mean-field behaviors are observed for the modified but not for the original dynamics. Our results feed the discussions about the most proper conceptions of epidemic models to describe real systems and the choices of the most suitable theoretical approaches to deal with these models.

negative: The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%–26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 – 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735–189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6–5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876–167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253–106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Impact of intervention methods on COVID-19 transmission in Shenzhen By March 31, 2020, COVID-19 had spread to more than 200 countries. Over 750,000 confirmed cases were reported, leading to more than 36,000 deaths. In this study, we analysed the efficiency of various intervention strategies to prevent infection by the virus, SARS-CoV-2, using an agent-based SEIIR model, in the fully urbanised city of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China. Shortening the duration from symptom onset to hospital admission, quarantining recent arrivals from Hubei Province, and letting symptomatic individuals stay at home were found to be the three most important interventions to reduce the risk of infection in Shenzhen. The ideal time window for a mandatory quarantine of arrivals from Hubei Province was between 10 January and January 17, 2020, while the ideal time window for local intervention strategies was between 15 and 22 January. The risk of infection could have been reduced by 50% if all symptomatic individuals had immediately gone to hospital for isolation, and by 35% if a 14-day quarantine for arrivals from Hubei Province had been introduced one week earlier. Intervention strategies implemented in Shenzhen were effective, and the spread of infection would be controlled even if the initial basic reproduction number had doubled. Our results may be useful for other cities when choosing their intervention strategies to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19.

negative: All Hands on Deck: Learning to "Un-specialize" in the COVID-19 Pandemic.

negative: Building the Capacity of Schools to Improve the Health of Nations

negative: The impact of the COVID19 pandemic and initial period of lockdown on the mental health and wellbeing of UK adults Mental health and wellbeing impacts of COVID19 were assessed in a convenience sample of 600 UK adults using a cross-sectional design. Recruited over a two-week period during the initial phase of the government lockdown, participants completed an online survey that included COVID19-related questions, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the WHO-5 and the OXCAP-MH. Self-isolating prior to lockdown, increased feelings of isolation since the lockdown, and having COVID19-related livelihood concerns, were associated with poorer mental health, wellbeing and quality of life. Perceiving increased kindness, community connectedness, and being an essential worker were associated with better mental health and wellbeing outcomes.

negative: Deliberation, Citizen Science and Covid‐19 Rather than aiming to produce more ‘rational’ or more ‘other‐regarding’ citizen judgements (the outcome of which is uncertain), deliberative democratic exercises should be re‐designed to maximise democratic participation. To do this, they must involve citizens and experts, a novel arrangement that will benefit both cohorts. For the former, a more inclusive form of deliberation will offer an opportunity to contribute to political discussion and be listened to by people with political or policy‐based authority. For the latter, it will provide a venue through which expertise can be brought to bear on democratic decision making without risk of scapegoating or politicisation. More broadly, deliberation that prioritises dialogue (over, say, opinion change) affirms the principle that political decisions reflect value judgements rather than technically ‘right’ or technically ‘wrong’ answers—judgements that are legitimate if arrived at through discussion involving the people due to be affected by the resultant policy. This article sets out the advantages of this form of deliberation—which bears some similarity to certain types of citizen science—in the context of the UK government’s responses to Covid‐19; both the confused decision making evident to date, and the forthcoming re‐opening phases that will prioritise or advantage some constituencies over others.

negative: The Framework for the Prediction of the Critical Turning Period for Outbreak of COVID-19 Spread in China based on the iSEIR Model The goal of this study is to establish a general framework for predicting the so-called critical Turning Period in an infectious disease epidemic such as the COVID-19 outbreak in China early this year. This framework enabled a timely prediction of the turning period when applied to Wuhan COVID-19 epidemic and informed the relevant authority for taking appropriate and timely actions to control the epidemic. It is expected to provide insightful information on turning period for the world's current battle against the COVID-19 pandemic. The underlying mathematical model in our framework is the individual Susceptible-Exposed- Infective-Removed (iSEIR) model, which is a set of differential equations extending the classic SEIR model. We used the observed daily cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan from February 6 to 10, 2020 as the input to the iSEIR model and were able to generate the trajectory of COVID-19 cases dynamics for the following days at midnight of February 10 based on the updated model, from which we predicted that the turning period of CIVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan would arrive within one week after February 14. This prediction turned to be timely and accurate, providing adequate time for the government, hospitals, essential industry sectors and services to meet peak demands and to prepare aftermath planning. Our study also supports the observed effectiveness on flatting the epidemic curve by decisively imposing the Lockdown and Isolation Control Program in Wuhan since January 23, 2020. The Wuhan experience provides an exemplary lesson for the whole world to learn in combating COVID-19.

negative: The Interaction of the Gut Microbiota with the Mucus Barrier in Health and Disease in Human Glycoproteins are major players in the mucus protective barrier in the gastrointestinal and other mucosal surfaces. In particular the mucus glycoproteins, or mucins, are responsible for the protective gel barrier. They are characterized by their high carbohydrate content, present in their variable number, tandem repeat domains. Throughout evolution the mucins have been maintained as integral components of the mucosal barrier, emphasizing their essential biological status. The glycosylation of the mucins is achieved through a series of biosynthetic pathways processes, which generate the wide range of glycans found in these molecules. Thus mucins are decorated with molecules having information in the form of a glycocode. The enteric microbiota interacts with the mucosal mucus barrier in a variety of ways in order to fulfill its many normal processes. How bacteria read the glycocode and link to normal and pathological processes is outlined in the review.

negative: What are the economic implications of COVID-19

negative: The Approved Dose of Ivermectin Alone is not the Ideal Dose for the Treatment of COVID‐19 Caly, Druce (1) reported that ivermectin inhibited SARS‐CoV‐2 in vitro for up to 48 h using ivermectin at 5μM. The concentration resulting in 50% inhibition (IC(50,) 2 µM) was >35x higher than the maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) after oral administration of the approved dose of ivermectin when given fasted. Simulations were conducted using an available population pharmacokinetic model to predict total (bound and unbound) and unbound plasma concentration‐time profiles after a single and repeat fasted administration of the approved dose of ivermectin (200 μg/kg), 60 mg, and 120 mg. Plasma total Cmax was determined and then multiplied by the lung:plasma ratio reported in cattle to predict the lung Cmax after administration of each single dose. Plasma ivermectin concentrations of total (bound and unbound) and unbound concentrations do not reach the IC(50), even for a dose level 10x higher than the approved dose. Even with the high lung:plasma ratio, ivermectin is unlikely to reach the IC(50) in lungs after single oral administration of the approved dose (predicted lung: 0.0873 µM) or at doses 10x higher that the approved dose administered orally (predicted lung: 0.820 µM). In summary, the likelihood of a successful clinical trial using the approved dose of ivermectin is low. Combination therapy should be evaluated in vitro. Re‐purposing drugs for use in COVID‐19 treatment is an ideal strategy but is only feasible when product safety has been established and experiments of re‐purposed drugs are conducted at clinically relevant concentrations.

negative: Facing up to the uncertainties of COVID-19.

negative: 'Led by the science', evidence gaps, and the risks of aerosol transmission of SARS-COV-2

negative: The dark cloud with a silver lining: Assessing the impact of the SARS COVID-19 pandemic on the global environment Abstract The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2 has caused tremendous suffering and huge economic losses. We hypothesized that extreme measures of partial-to-total shutdown might have influenced the quality of the global environment because of decreased emissions of atmospheric pollutants. We tested this hypothesis using satellite imagery, climatic datasets (temperature, and absolute humidity), and COVID-19 cases available in the public domain. While the majority of the cases were recorded from Western countries, where mortality rates were strongly positively correlated with age, the number of cases in tropical regions was relatively lower than European and North American regions, possibly attributed to faster human-to-human transmission. There was a substantial reduction in the level of nitrogen dioxide (NO2: 0.00002 mol m−2), a low reduction in CO (<0.03 mol m−2), and a low-to-moderate reduction in Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD: ~0.1–0.2) in the major hotspots of COVID-19 outbreak during February–March 2020, which may be attributed to the mass lockdowns. Our study projects an increasing coverage of high COVID-19 hazard at absolute humidity levels ranging from 4 to 9 g m−3 across a large part of the globe during April–July 2020 due to a high prospective meteorological suitability for COVID-19 spread. Our findings suggest that there is ample scope for restoring the global environment from the ill-effects of anthropogenic activities through temporary shutdown measures.

negative: Impact of the infectious period on epidemics The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio ([Formula: see text]), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when [Formula: see text] is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

negative: Teaching the Basics: Core Competencies in Global Health Compelling moral, ethical, professional, pedagogical, and economic imperatives support the integration of global health topics within medical school curriculum. Although the process of integrating global health into medical education is well underway at some medical schools, there remain substantial challenges to initiating global health training in others. As global health is a new field, faculties and schools may benefit from resources and guidance to develop global health modules and teaching materials. This article describes the Core Competencies project undertaken by the Global Health Education Consortium and the Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada’s Global Health Resource Group.

negative: Mold contamination in schools with either high or low prevelance of asthma BACKGROUND: Mold exposures have been linked to the development and exacerbation of asthma. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the Environmental Relative Moldiness Index (ERMI) metric, developed to quantify mold exposures in homes, might be applied to evaluating the mold contamination in schools. METHODS: Settled dust samples (n = 10) were collected on each level of a water‐damaged school in Springfield, Massachusetts and two samples per level in five Idaho schools. Each dust sample was analyzed for the 36 molds that make up the ERMI. The concentration of 2.5‐μm particulate matter (PM (2.5)) was measured in each school at two locations during the spring of 2013. RESULTS: The average ERMI value in the Springfield school, 15.51, was significantly greater (p < 0.001) than the average ERMI value, −2.87, in the Idaho schools. Ten of the twenty‐six Group 1 molds, which are associated with water‐damaged environments, were in significantly greater concentrations in the Springfield school. The populations of Group 2 molds, which are common indoors even without water damage, were essentially the same in Springfield and Idaho schools. The average PM (2.5) concentration in the Springfield and Idaho schools was 11.6 and 3.4 μg/m(3), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The ERMI scale might be useful in comparing the relative mold contamination in schools.

negative: Are pangolins the intermediate host of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) ? The outbreak of 2019-nCoV pneumonia (COVID-19) in the city of Wuhan, China has resulted in more than 70,000 laboratory confirmed cases, and recent studies showed that 2019-nCoV (SARS-CoV-2) could be of bat origin but involve other potential intermediate hosts. In this study, we assembled the genomes of coronaviruses identified in sick pangolins. The molecular and phylogenetic analyses showed that pangolin Coronaviruses (pangolin-CoV) are genetically related to both the 2019-nCoV and bat Coronaviruses but do not support the 2019-nCoV arose directly from the pangolin-CoV. Our study also suggested that pangolin be natural host of Betacoronavirus, with a potential to infect humans. Large surveillance of coronaviruses in pangolins could improve our understanding of the spectrum of coronaviruses in pangolins. Conservation of wildlife and limits of the exposures of humans to wildlife will be important to minimize the spillover risks of coronaviruses from wild animals to humans.

negative: A Note on the Risk of Infections Invading Unaffected Regions We present two probabilistic models to estimate the risk of introducing infectious diseases into previously unaffected countries/regions by infective travellers. We analyse two distinct situations, one dealing with a directly transmitted infection (measles in Italy in 2017) and one dealing with a vector-borne infection (Zika virus in Rio de Janeiro, which may happen in the future). To calculate the risk in the first scenario, we used a simple, nonhomogeneous birth process. The second model proposed in this paper provides a way to calculate the probability that local mosquitoes become infected by the arrival of a single infective traveller during his/her infectiousness period. The result of the risk of measles invasion of Italy was of 93% and the result of the risk of Zika virus invasion of Rio de Janeiro was of 22%.

negative: Latest assessment on COVID-19 from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)

negative: Quantify the role of superspreaders -opinion leaders- on COVID-19 information propagation in the Chinese Sina-microblog BACKGROUD: Effective communication of accurate information through social media constitutes an important component of public health interventions in modern time, when traditional public health approaches such as contact tracing, quarantine and isolation are among the few options for the containing the disease spread in the population. The success of control of COVID-19 outbreak started from Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province of China relies heavily on the resilience of residents to follow public health interventions which induce substantial interruption of social-economic activities, and evidence shows that opinion leaders have been playing significant roles in the propagation of epidemic information and public health policy and implementations. METHODS: We design a mathematical model to quantify the roles of information superspreaders in single specific information which outbreaks rapidly and usually has a short duration period, and to examine the information propagation dynamics in the Chinese Sina-microblog. Our opinion-leader susceptible-forwarding-immune (OL-SFI) model is formulated to track the temporal evolution of forwarding quantities generated by opinion leaders and normal users. RESULTS: Data fitting from the real data of COVID-19 obtained from Chinese Sina-microblog can identify the different contact rates and forwarding probabilities (and hence calculate the basic information forwarding reproduction number of superspreaders), and can be used to evaluate the roles of opinion leaders in different stages of the information propagation and the outbreak unfolding. CONCLUSIONS: The parameterized model can be used to nearcast the information propagation trend, and the model-based sensitivity analysis can help to explore important factors for the roles of opinion leaders.

negative: Recommendations for the Care of Pediatric Orthopaedic Patients During the COVID Pandemic The COVID pandemic has necessitated modifications to pediatric orthopaedic practice to protect patients, families, and healthcare workers and to minimize viral transmission. It is critical to balance the benefits of alterations to current practice to reduce the chances of COVID infection, with the potential long-term impact on patients. Early experiences of the pandemic from orthopaedic surgeons in China, Singapore, and Italy have provided the opportunity to take proactive and preventive measures to protect all involved in pediatric orthopaedic care. These guidelines, based on expert opinion and best available evidence, provide a framework for the management of pediatric orthopaedic patients during the COVID pandemic. General principles include limiting procedures to urgent cases such as traumatic injuries and deferring outpatient visits during the acute phase of the pandemic. Nonsurgical methods should be considered where possible. For patients with developmental or chronic orthopaedic conditions, it may be possible to delay treatment for 2 to 4 months without substantial detrimental long-term impact.

negative: How we treat patients with lung cancer during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: primum non nocere New cases of the novel coronavirus, also known as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) continue to rise worldwide. A few reports have showed that mortality due to SARS-CoV-2 is higher in elderly patients and other active comorbidities including cancer. To date, no effective treatment has been identified and management for critically ill patients relies on management in intensive care units. Patients with lung cancer are at risk of pulmonary complications from COVID-19. Furthermore, the use of chemotherapy might have a negative impact in patient’s outcome. Therefore, the risk/benefit ratio of systemic anticancer treatment (SACT) has to be considered. For each patient, several factors including age and comorbidities, as well as the number of hospital visits for treatment, can influence this risk. Each hospital around the world has issued some internal policy guidelines for oncologists, aiming to limit risks during this difficult time. We hereby propose a tool to support oncologists and physicians in treatment decision for patients with lung cancer. There are several variables to consider, including the extent of the epidemic, the local healthcare structure capacity, the risk of infection to the individual, the status of cancer, patients’ comorbidities, age and details of the treatment. Given this heterogeneity, we have based our suggestions bearing in mind some general factors There is not easy, universal solution to oncological care during this crisis and, to complicate matters, the duration of this pandemic is hard to predict. It is important to weigh the impact of each of our decisions in these trying times rather than rely on routine automatisms.

negative: Depressive symptoms and school burnout during adolescence: evidence from two cross-lagged longitudinal studies. The main purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which middle and late adolescents' depressive symptoms predict their later school burnout and, in turn, the extent to which school burnout predicts depressive symptoms. Drawing on data gathered at ages 15-19 in two-three-wave longitudinal studies, we investigated cross-lagged paths between school burnout and depressive symptoms. In Study 1 the participants were 15-year-old adolescents (Time 1: N = 611, Time 2: N = 614, Time 3: N = 725) who completed the School Burnout Inventory and depressive symptoms twice during their final term of comprehensive school and once after the transition to upper secondary high school or vocational school. In Study 2 the participants were 17-year-old adolescents whose school burnout and depressive symptoms were measured three times annually (Time 1: N = 474, Time 2: N = 412, Time 3: N = 414) during their 3 years of secondary education. Results of both studies revealed moderate stability for both school burnout and depressive symptoms. They also showed that school burnout more strongly predicted subsequent depressive symptoms later on than vice versa. Lastly, they revealed cumulative cycles between school burnout and depressive symptoms.

negative: Considerations in Mandating a New Covid-19 Vaccine in the USA for Children and Adults

negative: Guidelines for TMS/tES Clinical Services and Research through the COVID-19 Pandemic BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has broadly disrupted biomedical treatment and research including non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS). Moreover, the rapid onset of societal disruption and evolving regulatory restrictions may not have allowed for systematic planning of how clinical and research work may continue throughout the pandemic or be restarted as restrictions are abated. The urgency to provide and develop NIBS as an intervention for diverse neurological and mental health indications, and as a catalyst of fundamental brain research, is not dampened by the parallel efforts to address the most life-threatening aspects of COVID-19; rather in many cases the need for NIBS is heightened including the potential to mitigate mental health consequences related to COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To facilitate the re-establishment of access to NIBS clinical services and research operations during the current COVID-19 pandemic and possible future outbreaks, we develop and discuss a framework for balancing the importance of NIBS operations with safety considerations, while addressing the needs of all stakeholders. We focus on Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) and low intensity transcranial Electrical Stimulation (tES) - including transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) and transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation (tACS). METHODS: The present consensus paper provides guidelines and good practices for managing and reopening NIBS clinics and laboratories through the immediate and ongoing stages of COVID-19. The document reflects the analysis of experts with domain relevant expertise spanning NIBS technology, clinical services, and basic and clinical research – with an international perspective. We outline regulatory aspects, human resources, NIBS optimization, as well as accommodations for specific demographics. RESULTS: A model based on three phases (early COVID-19 impact, current practices, and future preparation) with an 11-step checklist (spanning removing or streamlining in-person protocols, incorporating telemedicine, and addressing COVID-19-associated adverse events) is proposed. Recommendations on implementing social distancing and sterilization of NIBS related equipment, specific considerations of COVID-19 positive populations including mental health comorbidities, as well as considerations regarding regulatory and human resource in the era of COVID-19 are outlined. We discuss COVID-19 considerations specifically for clinical (sub-)populations including pediatric, stroke, addiction, and the elderly. Numerous case-examples across the world are described. CONCLUSION: There is an evident, and in cases urgent, need to maintain NIBS operations through the COVID-19 pandemic, including anticipating future pandemic waves and addressing effects of COVID-19 on brain and mind. The proposed robust and structured strategy aims to address the current and anticipated future challenges while maintaining scientific rigor and managing risk.

negative: In the big picture of COVID-19 pandemic: what can sleep do

negative: Housing policy and the COVID-19 pandemic: the importance of housing research during this health emergency

negative: Clinical trials and the COVID-19 pandemic. "...but why think? Why not try the experiment?..." John Hunter (1728-1793), in a letter to Edward Jenner. August 2nd, 1775. When Galen of Pergamum (2nd c. A.D.), physician, philosopher and experimentalist, sought to ascertain the therapeutic properties of Theriac, an antidote of repute against poisons, he resorted to an experiment. Theriac or Theriaca was a compound drug, containing in some versions used in antiquity numerous components; Galen's own composition included over 70 ingredients! One of its uses was as an antidote against snakebites, a frequent peril for the Roman armies marching on in sandals. Galen spent most of his life in Rome and was elevated to Imperial Physician at the court of Marcus Aurelius, who apparently took daily doses of Theriac, which among other components included opium. Describing the experiment to his friend Pison, Galen wrote, "as I could not possibly conduct a trial on humans, I experimented on roosters" For his experiment, Galen, studied two groups of roosters, but he doesn't tell us how many animals he included in each category. Both groups were exposed to poisonous snakebites. All roosters who were fed with theriac prior to exposure to viper bites survived, whereas in the second group that had not received prophylactic Theriac, all roosters died. Not only is Galen's methodology remarkable, preceding the modern randomised trial by eighteen centuries, but more importantly, it is notable for his ethical stance at a time when sensitivities about human rights, prevalent in our times, were largely absent in societies of widespread slavery. For example, Mithridates VI (132-63 BC), the King of Pontus who is credited with the first use of Theriac, tested its efficacy on criminals and slaves. For his experiment Galen used the random allocation of treatment, today's prospective randomised clinical trial, implemented in the evaluation of novel therapies, widely used internationally, particularly in cancer research! This experimental method used for ascertaining the efficacy of new drugs became established after the second half of the 20th century and is now firmly entrenched as a research tool. On the other hand, the retrieval of information from observational studies or non-randomised series is considered scientifically inferior and is often dismissed or ignored as irrelevant or anecdotal. Such is the compulsion for the randomised study that in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, respected physicians and scientists appeared in the media hesitant to recommend the use of protective facial masks, as there was no evidence of benefit for their use from prospective randomised studies in the general population! Logic had no place in the argument! COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 new corona virus, brought to the fore the randomised trial, as well as, the ethical dilemmas that surround the allocation of treatment at random, in the face of a devastating pandemic. Anthony Fauci, distinguished infectious diseases expert and an adviser to the President of the USA, at a recent briefing from the Situation Room of the White House, endorsed categorically and unreservedly the randomised trial for the evaluation of drugs potentially effective against SARS-CoV-2, in patients afflicted with COVID-19. A few days later on April 8th, 2020, Professor Sotiris Tsiodras, scientific advisor to the Greek Government for COVID-19 and an expert on infectious diseases, when asked by a journalist about chloroquine, he responded, "Antony Fauci is correct. Nevertheless, we give the drug to everyone, that is, not half of the patients will receive it, and the other half will not". If we accept that the randomised trial represents the unique, impregnable method of evaluating new treatments-several clinicians dispute this dogma. -the question arises how will treatments be allocated to patients? According to the Declaration of Helsinki participation of a subject in a clinical trial requires their explicit written consent. Will, a potentially hypoxic patient rapidly deteriorating, be able to understand what is being asked of them, and will that patient be in a position to provide consent? And if that patient refuses to be randomised, what are the options? Is it his/her right to request the active treatment that a fellow patient is receiving in the next bed? Although the Declaration of Helsinki allows the option of no treatment or even placebo, where no known treatment is available for a certain condition, such as COVID-19, it also emphasizes that "while the primary purpose of medical research is to generate new knowledge, this goal can never take precedence over the rights and interests of individual research subjects". Consider now the physicians and nurses on the first line of the battle against the pandemic; to the enormous pressures and risks that they experience daily, they may have to endure the added psychological burden of the randomised trial, knowing that half of their patients are receiving the promising drug, whilst the other half are denied the chance of potential benefit. When during the Medical Research Council's randomized trial of streptomycin, one senior physician contracted tuberculosis, the Medical Research Council obtained supplies for him outside the trial. In this brief instance of medical history, the equipoise, the scientific imperative, all arguments and other justifications for providing treatment at random, were thrown out of the window in favour of the human factor! Why is randomization necessary? Because-it is presumed-the process of randomising subjects, protects the study from the selective inclusion of patients with favourable characteristics, thus inadvertently allowing or facilitating a falsely favourable result for the drug or treatment under investigation. However, the process of randomising patients does not necessarily result in the randomisation of the characteristics of their disease. Exactly because of this, at the end of a randomised study, even if the prognostic variables are evenly represented and balanced in the strata, further confirmation of the result is sought with a statistical multifactorial analysis. Such multifactorial analyses can also be applied to a non-randomised group of patients engaged in the trial of a new drug. Since the middle of the 20th century a generation of physicians have been trained to dismiss, or are incapable of evaluating the validity of a treatment beyond the established etiquette of the randomised study. This, some have argued, constitutes intellectual indolence, it is not scientific robustness. Pandits foresee that the world will be different after the end of this pandemic. Perhaps human ingenuity will seek new investigative methods that will render the randomised clinical trial obsolete, both, on methodological and ethical grounds. Until then and even if we have to accept the scientific supremacy of the randomised study in the evaluation of novel therapies, the ethical considerations in the unprecedented circumstances of a relentless pandemic demand a more humane approach, befitting the beneficent precepts of the Hippocratic tradition.

negative: Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the correlations between crude oil and agricultural futures In this study, we explored the impact of COVID-19 on the cross-correlations between crude oil and agricultural futures markets. A multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) approach was utilized to analyze the cross-correlations between the Brent crude oil and agricultural futures such as London Sugar, London Wheat, USA Cotton #2, and USA Orange Juice futures. We initially confirmed their correlations by calculating the DCCA coefficient. Then, from the multifractal aspect, the cross-correlations were further explored, and the sources for forming the correlations were discussed. The results show that the Brent Crude Oil has the strongest cross-correlation with London Sugar Future market among other three agricultural future markets. Then we investigated the influence of COVID-19 on the cross-correlations of multifractality between crude oil and agricultural futures. The experimental results indicated that the persistence under the influence of COVID-19 became stronger, and the cross-correlations of multifractality between crude oil and sugar future market is the strongest. In addition, the cross-correlations of all the agricultural futures increased after the emergence of COVID-19 except the orange juice future market. In general, COVID-19 has a great impact on the cross-correlation of multifractal property between crude oil and most selected agricultural future markets.

negative: Coronavirus and dermatology: a resident's perspective

negative: Is the global economy on the brink of recession?

negative: Crime, Justice & the COVID-19 Pandemic: Toward a National Research Agenda The novel corona virus COVID-19 has become a worldwide public health pandemic that has induced anomic conditions impacting daily routines. COVID-19 response measures specifically alter regular schedules and both restrict and expand opportunities for various types of crime while presenting unprecedented challenges for the criminal justice system. For criminologists and criminal justice scientists, the virus also presents natural experiment conditions allowing for real-world theory tests and observation of the relative effectiveness of practice and policy options under weighty conditions. Toward synthesizing scientific discourse and forthcoming empirical work, we suggest the benefits of a COVID-19 crime and justice research program and offer some anchoring concepts. Contagion, containment measures (social distancing, facemasks, shelter-in-place, economic shutdown, virtual work and schooling, banned group gatherings), and social ordinance compliance (voluntary or enforced) posture a conceptual framework from which to align research on crime, justice, and victimization during the virus. After observing crime trends and justice system challenges, we suggest how the pandemic presents opportunities for review of various criminal justice, especially incarceration, policies. System change is a recurring theme across this special issue of the American Journal of Criminal Justice that features twenty additional contributions from a wide range of authoritative crime and justice scholars. These articles on traditional crime during the virus, virus specific hate crime and domestic violence, and the challenges posed by COVID-19 to law enforcement, the courts, and corrections will hopefully provide initial commentary toward deeper inquiry.

negative: Ramping up Delivery of Cardiac Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Guidance Statement from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons COVID-19 Task Force The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact. Its rapid transmissibility has transformed healthcare delivery and forced countries to adopt strict measures to contain its spread. The vast majority of U.S. cardiac surgical programs have deferred all but truly emergent/urgent operative procedures in an effort to reduce the burden on the healthcare system and to mobilize resources to combat the pandemic surge. While the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase worldwide, the incidence of new cases has begun to decline in many North American cities. This "flattening of the curve" has prompted interest in re-opening the economy, relaxing public health restrictions, and resuming non-urgent health care delivery.

negative: Corticosteroid Guidance for Pregnancy during COVID-19 Pandemic The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is causing a necessary, rapid adjustment within the field of obstetrics. Corticosteroid use is a mainstay of therapy for those women delivering prematurely. Unfortunately, corticosteroid use has been associated with worse outcomes in COVID-19 positive patients. Given this information, it is necessary that obstetricians adjust practice to carefully weigh the fetal benefits with maternal risks. Therefore, our institution has examined the risks and benefits and altered our corticosteroid recommendations. KEY POINTS: · Corticosteroid use is an important part of prematurity treatment because it provides benefit to the fetus.. · Corticosteroid use may be related with increased morbidity and mortality in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).. · Therefore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, an alteration in current corticosteroid practices is necessary to uniquely weigh the maternal risks and fetal benefits..

negative: Together-Apart During Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Inclusion in the Time of Social Distancing

negative: Challenges in the management of older patients with acute coronary syndromes in the COVID-19 pandemic Ischaemic heart disease (IHD), in particular acute coronary syndrome (ACS), comprising ST-elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction and unstable angina, is the leading cause of death worldwide. Age is a major predictor of adverse outcome following ACS. COVID-19 infection seems to escalate the risk in older patients with heart disease. Increasing odds of in-hospital death is associated with older age following COVID-19 infection. Importantly, it seems older patients with comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease (CVD), in particular IHD, diabetes and hypertension, are at the highest risk of mortality following COVID-19 infection. The evidence is sparse on the optimal care of older patients with ACS with lack of robust randomised controlled trials. In this setting, with the serious threat imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of rapidly evolving knowledge with much unknown, it is important to weigh the risks and benefits of treatment strategies offered to older patients. In cases where risks outweigh the benefits, it might not be an unreasonable option to treat such patients with a conservative or a palliative approach. Further evidence to elucidate whether invasive management is beneficial in older patients with ACS is required out-with the COVID-19 pandemic. Though it is hoped that the actual acute phase of COVID-19 infection will be short lived, it is vital that important clinical research is continued, given the long-term benefits of ongoing clinical research for patients with long-term conditions, including CVD. This review aimed to evaluate the challenges and the management strategies in the care of older patients presenting with ACS in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: The worst is not, so long as we can say “this is the worst”

negative: Learning to make informed health choices: Protocol for a pilot study in schools in Barcelona. Introduction: The Informed Health Choices (IHC) project has developed learning resources to teach primary school children (10 to 12-year-olds) to assess treatment claims and make informed health choices. The aim of our study is to explore both the students' and teachers' experience when using these resources in the context of Barcelona (Spain). Methods: During the 2019-2020 school year, we will conduct a pilot study with 4 th and 5 th-year primary school students (9 to 11-year-olds) from three schools in Barcelona. The intervention in the schools will include: 1) a workshop with the teachers, and 2) lessons to the students. The data collection will include: 1) assessment of the IHC resources by the teachers before the lessons, 2) non-participatory observations during the lessons, 3) semi-structured interviews with the students after a lesson, 4) assessment of the lessons by the teachers after a lesson, 5) treatment claim assessment by the students at the end of the lessons, and 6) assessment of the IHC resources by the teachers at the end of the lessons. We will use ad hoc questionnaires and guides to register the data. We will perform a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data to explore understandability, desirability, suitability, usefulness, facilitators and barriers of the resources. The most relevant results will be discussed and some recommendations on how to use, how to adapt (if needed), and how to implement the IHC resources to this context will be agreed. The findings of the contextualization activities could inform the design of a cluster-randomised trial, to determine the effectiveness of the IHC resources in this context prior to scaling-up its use. Ethical considerations: The study protocol has obtained an approval exemption from the Ethics Committee of the Hospital de la Santa Creu i Sant Pau (Barcelona, Spain).

negative: Global lessons and Potential strategies in combating COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia:Systematic Review Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging disease that has been classified a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). In the absence of treatment for this virus, there is an urgent need to find alternative public health strategies to control the spread. Here, we have conducted an online search for all relevant public health interventions for COVID-19. We then characterize and summarize the global COVID-19 pandemic situation and recommend potential mitigation strategies in the context of Ethiopia. Methods: Initial search of Pub Med central and Google scholar was undertaken followed by analysis of the text words; COVID-19,SARS-CoV-2, Global lessons and Pandemic; A second search using all identified keywords including COVID-19, Epidemiology, Sociocultural, Ethiopia; thirdly, the reference list of all identified reports and articles were searched. Accordingly, of the 1,402 articles, 39 were included in the analysis for this review. Result: Countries COVID-19 mitigation strategies widely varied. The most common global COVID-19 mitigation strategies include; whole of government approach including individual, community and environmental measures, detecting and isolating cases, contact tracing and quarantine, social and physical distancing measures including for mass gatherings and international travel measures. Models revealed that, social and physical distancing alone could prevent the pandemic from 60-95%, if timely and effectively implemented. Moreover, detecting and isolation of cases were found to be crucial while access to testing was found to the global challenge. Individual measures including proper hand washing were also reported to be effective measures in preventing the pandemic. Asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 ranged from 25% to 80% and as a result, countries are revising the case definition for early detection of mild symptomatic cases of COVID-19 with inclusion of Chills, Muscle pain and new loss of taste or smell in addition to Cough, Shortness of breath, Fever and Sore throat. Global reports also revealed that the incubation period of COVID-19 could go to 24 days. Ethiopia is also unique in the aspects of sociocultural prospects while more than 99.3% of the population has a religion. Moreover, 69% of the population is under the age of 29 years old and the health policy in the country focused on prevention and primary health care. All these could be potential entries and opportunities to combat COVID-19 pandemic in the context of Ethiopia. Conclusion: While recommendations may change depending on the level of outbreak, we conclude that in Most countries have benefited from early interventions and in setups like Africa including Ethiopia where health system capability is limited, community engagement supported by local evidence with strict implementation of social and physical distancing measures is mandatory. Active involvement of religious Institutions and mobilizing youth could be entry to increase public awareness in mitigating COVID-19. Community level case detection could enhance early identification of cases which could be implemented through the health extension program. Isolation and quarantine beyond 14 days could help identify long term carriers of COVID-19. Validation and use of rapid test kits could be vital to increase access for testing. Revision of case definitions for COVID-19 could be important for early detection and identification of mild symptomatic cases.

negative: Nanobiotechnological modules as molecular target tracker for the treatment and prevention of malaria: options and opportunity Malaria is one of the major infectious diseases that remains a constant challenge to human being mainly due to the emergence of drug-resistant strains of parasite and also the availability of drugs, which are non-specific for their pharmacodynamic activity and known to be associated with multiple side effects. The disease has acquired endemic proportions in tropical countries where the hygienic conditions are not satisfactory while the environmental conditions favor the proliferation of parasite and its transmission, particularly through the female anopheles. It is obvious that to square up the problems, there is a need for designing and development of more effective drugs, which can combat the drug-resistant strains of the parasite. Molecular biology of the parasite and its homing into host cellular tropics provide multiple drug targets that could judiciously be considered for engineering and designing of new generation antimalarial drugs and also drug delivery systems. Though the recent reports document that against malaria parasite the vaccine could be developed, nevertheless, due to smart mutational change overs by the parasite, it is able to bypass the immune surveillance. The developed vaccine therefore failed to assure absolute protection against the malarial infection. In the conventional mode of treatment antimalarial drugs, the dose and dosage regimen that is followed at large crops up the contraindicative manifestations, and hence compromising the effective treatment. The emerging trends and new updates in contemporary biological sciences, material sciences, and drug delivery domain have enabled us with the availability of a multitude of mode and modules which could plunge upon the nanotechnology in particular to treat this challenging infection. The nanotechnology-based option may be tuned or customized as per the requirements to mark and target i.e. the infected RBCs, for targeted drug delivery. [Figure: see text]

negative: The Importance of Advancing SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines in Children While the role of children in the chain of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 remains to be fully defined, they likely play an important role based on our knowledge of other respiratory viruses. Children are more likely to be asymptomatic or have milder symptoms and less likely to present for healthcare and be tested for SARS-CoV-2; thus, our current estimates are likely under-representative of the true burden of SARS-CoV-2 in children. Given the potential direct benefit of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in children and the substantial indirect benefit through community protection or ‘herd immunity’, we argue that planning and implementation of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines should include children. Furthermore, community protection occurred after widespread implementation of prior childhood vaccines against Streptococcus pneumoniae, rubella and rotavirus. We detail considerations for vaccine clinical trials, potential barriers to the implementation of widespread vaccination and argue why children would be an ideal target population for vaccination.

negative: Green Recovery Policies for the COVID-19 Crisis: Modelling the Impact on the Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions The COVID-19 pandemic induces the worst economic downturn since the Second World War, requiring governments to design large-scale recovery plans to overcome this crisis. This paper quantitatively assesses the potential of government investments in eco-friendly construction projects to boost the economy and simultaneously realise environmental gains through reduced energy consumption and related greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis uses a Computable General Equilibrium model that examines the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis in a small open economy (Belgium). Subsequently, the impact of the proposed policy is assessed through comparative analysis for macroeconomic parameters as well as CO(2) equivalent emissions for four scenarios. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic damages economies considerably, however, the reduction in emissions is less than proportionate. Still, well-designed public policies can reverse this trend, achieving both economic growth and a disproportionally large decrease in emissions. Moreover, the positive effect of such a decoupling policy on GDP is even stronger during the pandemic than compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. This is the result of a targeted, investment-induced green transition towards low energy-intensive economic activities. Finally, this paper describes how the net effect on the government budget is positive through the indirect gains of the economic uptake.

negative: South Africa flattens its coronavirus curve—and considers how to ease restrictions With South Africa in its third week of a COVID-19 lockdown that will last at least through April, scientists advising the government gave a preview of the next phase of the response in a televised address on Monday evening They offered “a glimpse at the science behind the decision-making,” Minister of Health Zweli Mkhize said during the briefing—and a road map for reopening the country South Africa detected its first novel coronavirus infection on 5 March For the next few weeks, the epidemic followed an exponential curve similar to those in the United Kingdom, the United States, and many other countries On 15 March, the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, declared a national state of emergency banning visitors from high-risk countries, stopping large gatherings, closing more than half of its land borders, and shutting schools On 27 March the country started a 21-day lockdown, closing all borders and confining everyone except those performing essential services to their homes except to buy groceries and medicine or to collect welfare payments

negative: Labs in the time of COVID: an early-career scientist's view The outbreak of COVID-19 has stalled both the basic, clinical and non-COVID medical research. The scientific community has shown extraordinary flexibility and resilience in responding to the pandemic. However, funding restructuring, risk of infection, cancelation of scientific conferences and delayed experiments have already proven detrimental to the career opportunities of early-career scientists. Moreover, school closures and a lack of systematic support for childcare have been additional challenges for early- and mid-career researchers who have young children. This Editorial describes an early-career researcher's experience and highlights how after efficiently contributing to ‘flattening the curve’ of COVID-19 infections, the research community has an opportunity for growth and re-structuring.

negative: Establishment a real-time reverse transcription PCR based on host biomarkers for the detection of the subclinical cases of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis Bovine paratuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic enteric inflammatory disease of ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) that causes large economic losses in the dairy industry. Spread of PTB is mainly provoked by a long subclinical stage during which MAP is shed into the environment with feces; accordingly, detection of subclinical animals is very important to its control. However, current diagnostic methods are not suitable for detection of subclinical animals. Therefore, the current study was conducted to develop a diagnostic method for analysis of the expression of genes of prognostic potential biomarker candidates in the whole blood of cattle naturally infected with MAP. Real-time PCR with nine potential biomarker candidates was developed for the diagnosis of MAP subclinical infection. Animals were divided into four groups based on fecal MAP PCR and serum ELISA. Eight genes (Timp1, Hp, Serpine1, Tfrc, Mmp9, Defb1, Defb10, and S100a8) were up-regulated in MAP-infected cattle (p <0.05). Moreover, ROC analysis revealed that eight genes (Timp1, Hp, Serpine1, Tfrc, Mmp9, Defb1, Defb10, and S100a8) showed fair diagnostic performance (AUC≥0.8). Four biomarkers (Timp1, S100a8, Defb1, and Defb10) showed the highest diagnostic accuracy in the PCR positive and ELISA negative group (PN group) and three biomarkers (Tfrc, Hp, and Serpine1) showed the highest diagnostic accuracy in the PCR negative and ELISA positive group (NP group). Moreover, three biomarkers (S100a8, Hp, and Defb10) were considered the most reliable for the PCR positive and ELISA positive group (PP group). Taken together, our data suggest that real-time PCR based on eight biomarkers (Timp1, Hp, Serpine1, Tfrc, Mmp9, Defb1, Defb10, and S100a8) might be useful for diagnosis of JD, including subclinical stage cases.

negative: Modeling the impact of mass influenza vaccination and public health interventions on COVID-19 epidemics with limited detection capability The emerging coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has caused a COVID-19 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 causes a generally mild, but sometimes severe and even life-threatening infection, known as COVID-19. Currently, there exist no effective vaccines or drugs and, as such, global public authorities have so far relied upon non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Since COVID-19 symptoms are aspecific and may resemble a common cold, if it should come back with a seasonal pattern and coincide with the influenza season, this would be particularly challenging, overwhelming and straining the healthcare systems, particularly in resource-limited contexts, and would increase the likelihood of nosocomial transmission. In the present study, we devised a mathematical model focusing on the treatment of people complaining of influenza-like-illness (ILI) symptoms, potentially at risk of contracting COVID-19 or other emerging/re-emerging respiratory infectious agents during their admission at the health-care setting, who will occupy the detection kits causing a severe shortage of testing resources. The model is used to assess the effect of mass influenza vaccination on the spread of COVID-19 and the other respiratory pathogens in the case of a coincidence of the outbreak with the influenza season. Here, we show that increasing influenza vaccine uptake or enhancing the public health interventions would facilitate the management of respiratory outbreaks coinciding with the peak flu season, especially, compensate the shortage of the detection resources. However, how to increase influenza vaccination coverage rate remains challenging. Public health decision- and policy-makers should adopt evidence-informed strategies to improve influenza vaccine uptake.

negative: The role of community-wide wearing of face mask for control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic due to SARS-CoV-2 Abstract Background Face mask usage by the healthy population in the community to reduce risk of transmission of respiratory viruses remains controversial. We assessed the effect of community-wide mask usage to control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). Methods Patients presenting with respiratory symptoms at outpatient clinics or hospital wards were screened for COVID-19 per protocol. Epidemiological analysis was performed for confirmed cases, especially persons acquiring COVID-19 during mask-off and mask-on settings. The incidence of COVID-19 per-million-population in HKSAR with community-wide masking was compared to that of non-mask-wearing countries which are comparable with HKSAR in terms of population density, healthcare system, BCG vaccination and social distancing measures but not community-wide masking. Compliance of face mask usage in the HKSAR community was monitored. Findings Within first 100 days (31 December 2019 to 8 April 2020), 961 COVID-19 patients were diagnosed in HKSAR. The COVID-19 incidence in HKSAR (129.0 per-million-population) was significantly lower (p<0.001) than that of Spain (2983.2), Italy (2250.8), Germany (1241.5), France (1151.6), U.S. (1102.8), U.K. (831.5), Singapore (259.8), and South Korea (200.5). The compliance of face mask usage by HKSAR general public was 96.6% (range: 95.7% to 97.2%). We observed 11 COVID-19 clusters in recreational ‘mask-off’ settings compared to only 3 in workplace ‘mask-on’ settings (p = 0.036 by Chi square test of goodness-of-fit). Conclusion Community-wide mask wearing may contribute to the control of COVID-19 by reducing virus shedding in saliva and respiratory droplets from individuals with subclinical or mild COVID-19.

negative: Low-Impact Social Distancing Interventions to Mitigate Local Epidemics of SARS-CoV-2 Background After many jurisdictions have implemented intensive social distancing to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission, the challenge now is to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic without overburdening economic and social activities. This report explores low-impact interventions to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 with a minimum of social and economic disruption. Methods An agent-based model simulated the population of King County, Washington, with agents that interact in homes, schools, workplaces, and other community sites. SARS-CoV-2 transmission probabilities were estimated by fitting simulated to observed hospital admissions from February-May 2020. Interventions considered were (a) encouraging telecommuting; (b) reducing contacts to seniors and nursing home residents; (c) modest reductions to contacts outside of the home; (d) encouraging self-isolation of persons with COVID-19 symptoms; (e) rapid testing and household quarantining. Results Individual interventions are not expected to have a large impact on COVID-19 hospitalizations. No intervention reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations by more than 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 12.0% to 13.3%). Removing all interventions would result in nearly 42,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations between June 2020 and January 2021, with peak hospital occupancy exceeding available beds 6-fold. Combining the interventions is predicted to reduce total hospitalizations by 48% (95% CI, 47-49%), with peak COVID-19 hospital occupancy of 70% of total beds. Targeted school closures can further reduce the peak occupancy. Conclusions Combining low-impact interventions may mitigate the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, keeping hospital burden within the capacity of the healthcare system. Under this approach SARS-CoV-2 can spread through the community, moving toward herd immunity, while minimizing social and economic disruption.

negative: Effects of physical activity and exercise on well-being in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic Background: A disease discovered in China, COVID-19, was characterized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a pandemic in March 2020. Many countries in the world implemented social isolation as a strategy to contain the virus transmission. The same physical distancing which protects society from COVID-19 from spreading may have an impact on the mental health and well-being of the population This study aims to shed some light on this phenomenon by assessing the relationship between physical activity and SWB among individuals in the social isolation period of COVID-19. Methods: Data were collected in Brazil between March 31st and April 2nd, 2020. All volunteers agreed to participate by digitally checking the option of agreement right after reading the Consent Terms. The inclusion criteria were participants over 18 years old who had been in social isolation for at least one week and agreed to the Consent Terms. Three instruments were used: a questionnaire was built for this study which aimed to assess the participants' exercise routine. The second instrument called Psychosocial Aspects, Well-being and Exercise in Confinement (PAWEC) was also created by these researchers and aimed to assess the relationship between well-being and physical activity during the social isolation period. And the third measure was the Brazilian Portuguese-adapted version of the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS). Findings: A total of 592 participants reported being in social isolation for an average of 14.4 (SD=3.3) days. The amount of participants who reported strength training as exercise increased from 31 (5.2%) before isolation to 82 (13.9%) during quarantine. The study shows that well-being related to the practice of physical activity during quarantine is linked to an established routine of physical activity prior to the social isolation period. Interpretation: People who already practiced physical activity feel more motivated to continue practicing during this period and this causes the appearance of positive affects, unlike people who are only now starting to exercise; according to the study, negative aspects can occur for those who are only just starting. In a period of social isolation, it is important that the practice of physical activity is closer to previous habits, also finding that an obligation to exercise during this period when this was not a reality for the person can contribute to an increase in malaise.

negative: School Nurse Workload--Staffing for Safe Care: Position Statement. It is the position of the National Association of School Nurses (NASN) that daily access to a registered professional school nurse (hereinafter referred to as a school nurse) can significantly improve students' health, safety, and abilities to learn. To meet the health and safety needs of students, families, and school communities, school nurse workloads should be determined at least annually, using student- and community-specific health data.

negative: Mechanistic Transmission Modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Demonstrates the Importance of Aerosol Transmission Background The current prevailing position is that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is transmitted primarily through large respiratory droplets within close proximity (i.e., 1-2 m) of infected individuals. However, quantitative information on the relative importance of specific transmission pathways of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (i.e., droplets, aerosols, and fomites across short- and long-range distances) remains limited. Methods To evaluate the relative importance of multiple transmission routes for SARS-CoV-2, we leveraged detailed information available from the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship outbreak that occurred in early 2020. We developed a framework that combines stochastic Markov chain and negative exponential dose-response modeling with available empirical data on mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and human behaviors, which informs a modified version of the Reed-Frost epidemic model to predict daily and cumulative daily case counts on the ship. We modeled 21,600 scenarios to generate a matrix of solutions across a full range of assumptions for eight unknown or uncertain epidemic and mechanistic transmission factors, including the magnitude of droplet and aerosol emissions from infected individuals, the infectious dose for deposition of droplets and aerosols to the upper and lower respiratory tracts, and others. Findings A total of 132 model iterations met acceptability criteria (R2 > 0.95 for modeled vs. reported cumulative daily cases and R2 > 0 for daily cases). Analyzing only these successful model iterations yields insights into the likely values for uncertain parameters and quantifies the likely contributions of each defined mode of transmission. Mean estimates of the contributions of short-range, long-range, and fomite transmission modes to infected cases aboard the ship across the entire simulation time period were 35%, 35%, and 30%, respectively. Mean estimates of the contributions of large respiratory droplets and small respiratory aerosols were 41% and 59%. Short-range transmission was the dominant mode after passenger quarantine began, albeit due primarily to aerosol transmission, not droplets. Interpretation Our results demonstrate that aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant contributor to COVID-19 transmission among passengers aboard the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship. Moreover, close-range and long-range transmission likely contributed similarly to disease progression aboard the ship, with fomite transmission playing a smaller role. The passenger quarantine also affected the importance of each mode, demonstrating the impacts of the interventions. Although cruise ships represent unique built environments with high ventilation rates and no air recirculation, these findings underscore the importance of implementing public health measures that target the control of inhalation of aerosols in addition to ongoing measures targeting control of large droplet and fomite transmission, not only aboard cruise ships but in other indoor environments as well.

negative: Modelling the impact of Plasma Therapy and Immunotherapy for Recovery of COVID-19 Infected Individuals Since the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019, COVID-19 has become a pandemic causing a global economic and public health emergency. There is no known treatment or vaccine available for COVID-19 to date. Immunotherapy and plasma therapy has been used with satisfactory efficacy over the past two decades in many viral infections like SARS (Systemic Acute Respiratory Syndrome), MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), and H1N1. Limited data from China show clinical benefit, radiological resolution, reduction in viral loads, and improved survival. Our aim is to create a mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission and then apply various control parameters to see their effects on recovery from COVID-19 disease. We have formulated a system of non-linear ordinary differential equations, calculated basic reproduction R0, and applied five different controls (self-isolation, quarantine, herd immunity, immunotherapy, plasma therapy) to test the effectiveness of control strategy. Control optimality was checked by Lagrangian functions. Numerical simulations and bifurcation analyses were carried out. The study concludes that the COVID-19 outbreak can be controlled up to a significant level three weeks after applying all the control strategies together. These strategies lead to a reduction in hospitalization and a rise in recovery from infection. Immunotherapy is highly effective initially in hospitalized infected individuals however better results were seen in the long term with plasma therapy.

negative: Randomized Re-Opening of Training Facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic

negative: Who is more susceptible to Covid-19 infection and mortality in the States? Background: A novel coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, China and reported to WHO on 31 December 2019. WHO declared a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. The first case in the US was reported in January 2020. Since mid-March 2020, the number of confirmed cases has increased exponentially in the States, with 1.1 million confirmed cases, and 57.4 thousand deaths as of 30 April 2020. Even though some believe that this new lethal coronavirus does not show any partiality to the rich, previous epidemiological studies find that the poor in the US are more susceptible to the epidemics due to their limited access to preventive measures and crowded living conditions. In this study, we postulate that the rich is more susceptible to Covid-19 infection during the early stage before social distancing measures have been introduced. This may be attributed to the higher mobility (both inter- and intra-city), given their higher tendency to travel for business/education, and to more social interactions. However, we postulate after the lockdown/social distancing has been imposed, the infection among the rich may be reduced due to better living conditions. Further, the rich may be able to afford better medical treatment once infected, hence a relatively lower mortality. In contrast, without proper medical insurance coverage, the poor may be prevented from receiving timely and proper medical treatment, hence a higher mortality. Method: We will collect the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the US during the period of Jan 2020 to Apr 2020 from Johns Hopkins University, also the number of Covid-19 tests in the US from the health departments across the States. County-level socio-economic status (SES) including age, sex, race/ethnicity, income, education, occupation, employment status, immigration status, and housing price, will be collected from the US Census Bureau. State/county-level health conditions including the prevalence of chronic diseases will be collected from the US CDC. State/county-level movement data including international and domestic flights will be collected from the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics. We will also collect the periods of lockdown/social distancing. Regression models are constructed to examine the relationship between SES, and Covid-19 infection and mortality at the state/county-level before and after lockdown/social distancing, while accounting for Covid-19 testing capacities and co-morbidities. Expected Findings: We expect that there is a positive correlation between Covid-19 infection and SES at the state/county-level in the US before social distancing. In addition, we expect a negative correlation between Covid-19 mortality and SES.

negative: SAGES and EAES recommendations for minimally invasive surgery during COVID-19 pandemic The unprecedented pandemic of COVID-19 has impacted many lives and affects the whole healthcare systems globally. In addition to the considerable workload challenges, surgeons are faced with a number of uncertainties regarding their own safety, practice, and overall patient care. This guide has been drafted at short notice to advise on specific issues related to surgical service provision and the safety of minimally invasive surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although laparoscopy can theoretically lead to aerosolization of blood borne viruses, there is no evidence available to confirm this is the case with COVID-19. The ultimate decision on the approach should be made after considering the proven benefits of laparoscopic techniques versus the potential theoretical risks of aerosolization. Nevertheless, erring on the side of safety would warrant treating the coronavirus as exhibiting similar aerosolization properties and all members of the OR staff should use personal protective equipment (PPE) in all surgical procedures during the pandemic regardless of known or suspected COVID status. Pneumoperitoneum should be safely evacuated via a filtration system before closure, trocar removal, specimen extraction, or conversion to open. All emergent endoscopic procedures performed during the pandemic should be considered as high risk and PPE must be used by all endoscopy staff.

negative: Silk fabric as a protective barrier for personal protective equipment and as a functional material for face coverings during the COVID-19 pandemic Background The worldwide shortage of single-use N95 respirators and surgical masks due to the COVID-19 pandemic has forced many health care personnel to prolong the use of their existing equipment as much as possible. In many cases, workers cover respirators with available masks in an attempt to extend their effectiveness against the virus. Due to low mask supplies, many people instead are using face coverings improvised from common fabrics. Our goal was to determine what fabrics would be most effective in both practices. Methods and findings We examined the hydrophobicity of fabrics (silk, cotton, polyester), as measured by their resistance to the penetration of small and aerosolized water droplets, an important transmission avenue for the virus causing COVID-19. We also examined the breathability of these fabrics and their ability to maintain hydrophobicity despite undergoing repeated cleaning. Tests were done when fabrics were fashioned as an overlaying barrier and also when constructed as do-it-yourself face coverings. As a protective barrier and face covering, silk is more effective at impeding the penetration and absorption of droplets due to its greater hydrophobicity relative to other tested fabrics. Silk face coverings repelled droplets as well as masks, but unlike masks they are hydrophobic and can be readily sterilized for immediate reuse. Conclusions Silk is an effective hydrophobic barrier to droplets, more breathable than other fabrics that trap humidity, and are readily re-useable via cleaning. Therefore, silk can serve as an effective material for protecting respirators under clinical conditions and as a material for face coverings.

negative: Student Dropout Prediction Among the many open problems in the learning process, students dropout is one of the most complicated and negative ones, both for the student and the institutions, and being able to predict it could help to alleviate its social and economic costs. To address this problem we developed a tool that, by exploiting machine learning techniques, allows to predict the dropout of a first-year undergraduate student. The proposed tool allows to estimate the risk of quitting an academic course, and it can be used either during the application phase or during the first year, since it selectively accounts for personal data, academic records from secondary school and also first year course credits. Our experiments have been performed by considering real data of students from eleven schools of a major University.

negative: A Look at the First Quarantined Community in the USA: Response of Religious Communal Organizations and Implications for Public Health During the COVID-19 Pandemic The current study examined anxiety and distress among members of the first community to be quarantined in the USA due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to being historically significant, the current sample was unusual in that those quarantined were all members of a Modern Orthodox Jewish community and were connected via religious institutions at which exposure may have occurred. We sought to explore the community and religious factors unique to this sample, as they relate to the psychological and public health impact of quarantine. Community organizations were trusted more than any other source of COVID-19-related information, including federal, state and other government agencies, including the CDC, WHO and media news sources. This was supported qualitatively with open-ended responses in which participants described the range of supports organized by community organizations. These included tangible needs (i.e., food delivery), social support, virtual religious services, and dissemination of COVID-19-related information. The overall levels of distress and anxiety were elevated and directly associated with what was reported to be largely inadequate and inconsistent health-related information received from local departments of health. In addition, the majority of participants felt that perception of or concern about future stigma related to a COVID-19 diagnosis or association of COVID-19 with the Jewish community was high and also significantly predicted distress and anxiety. The current study demonstrates the ways in which religious institutions can play a vital role in promoting the well-being of their constituents. During this unprecedented pandemic, public health authorities have an opportunity to form partnerships with religious institutions in the common interests of promoting health, relaying accurate information and supporting the psychosocial needs of community members, as well as protecting communities against stigma and discrimination.

negative: Surgical precautions for Urologists in the era of COVID-19

negative: After COVID-19, business as usual: is this the right goal?

negative: COVID-19 pandemic and burden of non-communicable diseases: An ecological study on data of 185 countries: COVID-19 and non-communicable diseases BACKGROUND: The interaction between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and non-communicable diseases may increase the global burden of disease. We assessed the association of COVID-19 with ageing and non-communicable diseases. METHODS: We extracted data regarding non-communicable disease, particularly cardiovascular disease, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017. We obtained data of confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and tests from the Our World in Data database as of May 28, 2020. Potential confounders of pandemic outcomes analyzed include institutional lockdown delay, hemispheric geographical location, and number of tourists. We compared all countries according to GBD classification and World Bank income level. We assessed the correlation between independent variables associated with COVID-19 caseload and mortality using Spearman's rank correlation and adjusted mixed model analysis. FINDINGS: High-income had the highest, and the Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania region had the least cases per million population (3050.60 vs. 63.86). Sub-saharan region has reported the lowest number of COVID-19 mortality (1.9). Median delay to lockdown initiation varied from one day following the first case in Latin America and Caribbean region, to 34 days in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania. Globally, non-communicable disease DALYs were correlated with COVID-19 cases (r=0.32, p<0.001) and deaths (r=0.37, p<0.001). HALE correlated with COVID-19 cases (r=0.63, p<0.001) and deaths (r=0.61, p<0.001). HALE was independently associated with COVID-19 case rate and the number of tourists was associated with COVID-19 mortality in the adjusted model. INTERPRETATION: Preventive measures against COVID-19 should protect the public from the dual burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases, particularly in the elderly. In addition to active COVID-19 surveillance, policymakers should utilize this evidence as a guide for prevention and coordination of health services. This model is timely, as many countries have begun to reduce social isolation.

negative: Planning phase-2 for the endoscopic units in Northern Italy after COVID-19 lockdown: an exit strategy with a lot of critical issues and a few opportunities. Background and aims: Restarting activity in Endoscopic Departments (ED) after COVID-19 lockdown raises critical issues. This survey investigates strategies and uncertainties on resumption of elective activity. Methods: Directors of 55 EDs in Northern Italy received a questionnaire focusing on the impact of pandemic on activity and organization and on the resources available at re-opening. A section was devoted to gather forecasts and proposals on the return path to normality. Results: All centres had reduced their activities of at least 50% of the pre-COVID-19 period. A rate of endoscopists (13.6%), nurses (25.2%), and health assistants (14%) were not available since infected, or relocated to other departments. One third of endoscopic rooms were converted to COVID-19 care. Two third had the waiting or the recovery areas too small for distancing. A dedicated pathway for infected patients could not be guaranteed in 20% of EDs. Only one third of EDs judged realistic to completely restore a pre-crisis workload by the next months. Optimizing appropriateness of procedures, closer interaction with GPs and triaging patients with telemedicine were the proposals to re-open EDs. Conclusions: The critical issues while re-opening EDs calls for reducing the workload in the endoscopy units through appropriate rescheduling of procedures.

negative: The impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the utilization of emergency urological services OBJECTIVES: To compare the number of patients attending the Urology ED of Centro Hospitalar Universitário do Porto (CHUP), as well as their demographic characteristics, the reasons for admission, the clinical severity under the Manchester triage system (MTS), and the need for emergency surgery or hospitalization, during the pandemic and the equivalent period in 2019. Patients and Methods: Data were collected from patients attending the Urology emergency ward of CHUP during three weeks ‐ from March 11th 2020 to April 1st 2020 ‐ and from the same period the previous year (from March 11th to April 1st 2019). RESULTS: During the pandemic, 46.4% fewer patients visited our urological ED (122 vs 263). There was no significant difference of the mean age or the number of old patients (with 65 or more years old) between the two periods. However, significantly fewer female patients sought emergency urological services during the COVID‐19 pandemic period (32.7% vs. 14.8%, p<0.05). No significant differences were noted between different clinical severity groups under the MTS. In 2019, significantly less patients required hospitalization. The most common reasons for admission, during both periods, were hematuria, renal colic and urinary tract infections (UTI). The authors recognize that the study has several limitations, namely, those inherent to its retrospective nature. CONCLUSION: COVID‐19 significantly influenced people’s urological care‐seeking behaviour. Understanding the present situation is helpful for the prediction of future urological needs. Based on the results of this study, we have reasons to speculate that people’s requirements for urological services might grow explosively in the post‐COVID‐19 period. There should be further studies about the real state of long‐term urological services and the consequences that this pandemic may have in terms of morbimortality not directly related to the virus.

negative: The effect of dexamethasone-induced immunosuppression on the development of faecal antibody and recovery from and resistance to rotavirus infection Rotavirus-naive and rotavirus-immune gnotobiotic calves were treated with high doses of dexamethasone (DX) to suppress the immune system. Calves were then infected with a virulent rotavirus inoculum, J-160, to investigate the role of immune responses both in recovery from primary rotavirus infection and in resistance to secondary rotavirus infection. Treatment of calves with DX markedly suppressed in vitro responsiveness of peripheral blood lymphocytes to mitogens within 48 h of the start of DX treatment. Suppression was similar in rotavirus-naive and rotavirus-immune calves. In contrast, the effect of DX treatment on specific antibody responses differed depending on when DX treatment started in relation to rotavirus infection. When DX treatment commenced prior to primary rotavirus infection both systemic and local specific antibody responses were inhibited. These calves, in which mitogen and antibody responses were suppressed, exhibited greater clinical signs than did control calves after infection with virulent rotavirus, but virus excretion was affected in only one of the two calves. When DX treatment was started after primary rotavirus infection but before secondary infection, systemic and local antibody responses to the primary infection and to the challenge infection were not affected. These calves resisted challenge with virulent virus as did DX-untreated rotavirus-immune calves, even though mitogen responses were suppressed. We conclude that in a primary rotavirus infection, virus excretion ceased when both antibody and mitogen responses were suppressed. Resistance to secondary rotavirus infection occurred when mitogen responsiveness was suppressed, but when antibody levels were normal. Thus, no evidence was obtained that fully functional cell-mediated immune mechanisms are essential for resistance to rotavirus infection. Evidence was provided for the ability of parenteral treatment with DX to suppress mucosal as well as systemic antibody responses.

negative: Cohort Profile: The LoewenKIDS Study – life-course perspective on infections, the microbiome and the development of the immune system in early childhood

negative: Re: Reflections on the COVID-19 Pandemic

negative: Learnings for Health Economics from the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

negative: COVID-19: Now is the time to come together

negative: Prevention of household transmission crucial to stop the catastrophic spread of COVID-19 in cities After weeks under lockdown, metropolitan areas fighting the spread of COVID-19 aim to balance public health goals with social and economic standards for well-being. Mathematical models of disease transmission seeking to evaluate mitigation strategies must assess the possible impacts of social distancing, economic lockdowns and other measures. However, obscure relations between model parameters and real-world phenomena complicate such analyses. Here, we use a high-resolution metapopulation model of Guadalajara (GDL, Western Mexico) to represent daily mobility patterns driven by economic activities and their relation to epidemic growth. Given the prominence of essential activities in the city's economy, we find that strategies aiming to mitigate the risk of out-of-home interactions are insufficient to stop the catastrophic spread of COVID-19. Using baseline reproduction numbers R0 = [2.5, 3.0] in the absence of interventions, our simulations suggest that household transmission alone can make Rt ~ 1, and is estimated to drive 70 {+/-} 15% of current epidemic growth. This sets an upper bound for the impact of mobility-based interventions, which are unlikely to lower Rt below 1.3 and must be complemented with aggressive campaigns for early case detection and isolation. As laboratory testing and health services become insufficient to meet demand in GDL and most other cities, we propose that cities facilitate guidelines and equipment to help people curb spreading within their own homes. Postponing these actions will increase their economic cost and decrease their potential returns.

negative: The correspondence between the structure of the terrestrial mobility network and the emergence of COVID-19 in Brazil The inter-cities mobility network is of great importance in understanding outbreaks, especially in Brazil, a continental-dimension country. Grounded on the complex networks approach, cities are here represented as nodes and the flows as weighted edges - these geographical graphs, (geo)graphs, are handled in a Geographical Information System. We adopt the IBGE database from 2016, which contains the weekly flow of people between cities in terrestrial vehicles. The present work aims to investigate the correspondences of the networks' measures, like strength, degree, and betweenness with the emergence of cities with confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Brazil, and special attention is given to the state of Sao Paulo. We show that the results are better when certain thresholds are applied to the networks' flows to neglect the lowest-frequency travels. The correspondences presented statistical significance for most measures up to a certain period. Until the end of April, the best matchings are with the strength measure (total flow related to a node/city) under a high flow threshold in the Sao Paulo state, when the most connected cities are reached. After this stage, the lower thresholds become more suitable, indicating a possible signature of the outbreak interiorization process. Surprisingly, some countryside cities such as Campina Grande (state of Paraiba), Feira de Santana (state of Bahia), and Caruaru (state of Pernambuco) have higher strengths than some states' capitals. Furthermore, some cities from the Sao Paulo state such as Presidente Prudente and Ribeirao Preto are captured in the top-rank positions of all the analyzed network measures under different flow thresholds. Their importance in mobility is crucial and they are potential super spreaders like the states' capitals. Our analysis offers additional tools for understanding and decision support to inter-cities mobility interventions regarding the SARS-CoV-2 and other epidemics.

negative: ATP as a Marker for Surface Contamination of Biological Origin in Schools and as a Potential Approach to the Measurement of Cleaning Effectiveness To address the need for a quantitative approach to the measurement of cleaning effectiveness, related to biologically derived surface contamination, three commercially available adenosine triphosphate (ATP) test systems were used to collect multiple samples measured in relative light units (RLUs) from 27 elementary schools in the southwestern United States before and after a standardized cleaning protocol. The database consisted of 6480 ATP measurements from four critical surfaces (student desktops, cafeteria tabletops, and restroom sinks and stall doors). Data was assessed according to ranges of ATP values before and after cleaning. Results showed the potential for such data to provide the basis for a standardized approach to the measurement of cleaning effectiveness, based on detection and quantification of pollutant loads of biological origin, across critical surfaces in school building environments. It is anticipated that verification of this data in school buildings across different geographic and climatic regions will lead to the establishment of “acceptable” ranges of ATP values that can be used as a practice-based approach to improving cleaning practices and contributing to healthier school environments.

negative: COVID-19: Long-term Planning for Procedure-based Specialties During Extended Mitigation and Suppression Strategies

negative: ELSA recommendations for minimally invasive surgery during a community spread pandemic: a centered approach in Asia from widespread to recovery phases BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant changes to surgical practice across the worlds. Some countries are seeing a tailing down of cases, while others are still having persistent and sustained community spread. These evolving disease patterns call for a customized and dynamic approach to the selection, screening, planning, and for the conduct of surgery for these patients. METHODS: The current literature and various international society guidelines were reviewed and a set of recommendations were drafted. These were circulated to the Governors of the Endoscopic and Laparoscopic Surgeons of Asia (ELSA) for expert comments and discussion. The results of these were compiled and are presented in this paper. RESULTS: The recommendations include guidance for selection and screening of patients in times of active community spread, limited community spread, during times of sporadic cases or recovery and the transition between phases. Personal protective equipment requirements are also reviewed for each phase as minimum requirements. Capability management for the re-opening of services is also discussed. The choice between open and laparoscopic surgery is patient based, and the relative advantages of laparoscopic surgery with regard to complications, and respiratory recovery after major surgery has to be weighed against the lack of safety data for laparoscopic surgery in COVID-19 positive patients. We provide recommendations on the operating room set up and conduct of general surgery. If laparoscopic surgery is to be performed, we describe circuit modifications to assist in reducing plume generation and aerosolization. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic requires every surgical unit to have clear guidelines to ensure both patient and staff safety. These guidelines may assist in providing guidance to units developing their own protocols. A judicious approach must be adopted as surgical units look to re-open services as the pandemic evolves.

negative: Remdesivir in treatment of COVID-19: A systematic benefit-risk assessment Background: There is a need to identify effective, safe treatments for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) rapidly, given the current, ongoing pandemic. A systematic benefit-risk assessment was designed and conducted to strengthen the ongoing understanding of the benefit-risk balance for remdesivir in COVID-19 treatment by using a structured method which uses all available data. Methods: The Benefit-Risk Action Team (BRAT) framework was used to assess the overall benefit-risk of the use of remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19 compared to standard of care, placebo or other treatments. We searched PubMed,Google Scholar and government agency websites to identify literature reporting clinical outcomes in patients taking remdesivir for COVID-19. A value tree was constructed and key benefits and risks were ranked by two clinicians in order of considered importance. Results: Several key benefits and risks for use of remdesivir in COVID-19 compared to placebo have been identified. In one trial, the benefit of time to clinical improvement was not statistically significant (21 vs 23 days, HR=1.23, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.75), although the study was underpowered. In another trial, a shorter time to recovery in patients treated with remdesivir was observed (11 vs 15 days), with non-significant reduced mortality risk (8% vs 12%). Risk data were only available from one trial. This trial reported fewer serious adverse events in patients taking remdesivir (18%) comparted to the placebo group (26%), however more patients in the remdesivir group discontinued treatment as a result of an adverse event compared to those patients receiving placebo (12% vs 5%). Conclusions: Preliminary clinical trial results suggest a favourable benefit-risk profile for remdesivir compared to placebo, however there is limited safety data available at the current time. The current framework summarises the key anticipated benefits and risks for which further data are needed. Ongoing clinical trial data can be incorporated into the framework when available to provide an updated benefit-risk assessment.

negative: Excess Risk of Head and Chest Colds Among Teachers and Other School Workers BACKGROUND: Work‐related injuries and illnesses in the educational services sector have not been well studied. This analysis examined whether teachers and other school workers are at higher risk of head/chest cold compared to all other workers in the United States. METHODS: Seven years (1998‐2004) of National Health Interview Survey data on currently employed workers were combined to provide a basis for estimating the incidence proportion of head/chest cold. RESULTS: The adjusted odds ratio for head/chest cold was significantly elevated for teachers and other workers employed at schools compared to all other workers. When examined by month, an excess of increased head/chest cold risk during the school year suggested that a portion of head/chest cold among teachers and other school workers is attributable to their workplace, perhaps due to close contact with students at school. CONCLUSION: Head/chest cold, a surrogate for acute respiratory infection, was more common among school workers during the school year and less common during July than for all other workers in the United States. Targeted training for school workers and students may be beneficial to reduce work‐related exposure to viruses and bacteria that infect the respiratory system.

negative: Special Article: Risk Communication During COVID-19 Abstract: During the unprecedented times caused by the novel coronavirus COVID-19, there is rapidly evolving information and guidance. However, a focus must also be on proper and effective risk communication. This is especially the case during pandemics that have high rates of infection, significant morbidity, lack of therapeutic measures, and rapid increases in cases, all of which apply to the current COVID-19 pandemic. A consequence of poor risk communication and heightened risk perception is hoarding behavior, which can lead to lack of medications and personal protective equipment. One potential way to ensure appropriate risk communication is utilizing social media channels, and ensuring an ongoing consistent media presence. Another important step is to include all stakeholders including members of the allergy community in broader public health messaging. As we continue to face unprecedented times in the allergy community, an understanding and appreciation of risk communication will be essential as we communicate with, and inform, our patients, and our colleagues, moving forward.

negative: COVID-19 related home confinement in adults: weight gain risks and opportunities As the global COVID-19 pandemic unfolds, over 90% of U.S. adult residents are confined to their homes, with restaurants, shops, schools, and workplaces shut down to prevent disease spread. While it is a priority to mitigate the immediate impact, one area of great concern is the long-term effects of this pandemic on weight management in adults. As evident from previous research, small changes in body weight in relatively short time periods can become permanent and lead to substantial weight gain over time(1). Considering that the current situation could last a total of several months, this extended home confinement could exacerbate the problem of obesity in adults by substantially contributing to or exceeding annual weight gain.

negative: Modeling the impact of quarantine during an outbreak of Ebola virus disease The quarantine of people suspected of being exposed to an infectious agent is one of the most basic public health measure that has historically been used to combat the spread of communicable diseases in human communities. This study presents a new deterministic model for assessing the population-level impact of the quarantine of individuals suspected of being exposed to disease on the spread of the 2014–2015 outbreaks of Ebola viral disease. It is assumed that quarantine is imperfect (i.e., individuals can acquire infection during quarantine). In the absence of quarantine, the model is shown to exhibit global dynamics with respect to the disease-free and its unique endemic equilibrium when a certain epidemiological threshold (denoted by [Formula: see text]) is either less than or greater than unity. Thus, unlike the full model with imperfect quarantine (which is known to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation), the version of the model with no quarantine does not undergo a backward bifurcation. Using data relevant to the 2014–2015 Ebola transmission dynamics in the three West African countries (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), uncertainty analysis of the model show that, although the current level and effectiveness of quarantine can lead to significant reduction in disease burden, they fail to bring the associated quarantine reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) to a value less than unity (which is needed to make effective disease control or elimination feasible). This reduction of [Formula: see text] is, however, very possible with a modest increase in quarantine rate and effectiveness. It is further shown, via sensitivity analysis, that the parameters related to the effectiveness of quarantine (namely the parameter associated with the reduction in infectiousness of infected quarantined individuals and the contact rate during quarantine) are the main drivers of the disease transmission dynamics. Overall, this study shows that the singular implementation of a quarantine intervention strategy can lead to the effective control or elimination of Ebola viral disease in a community if its coverage and effectiveness levels are high enough.

negative: Consequences of COVID-19 on international medical graduates and students applying to residencies in the United States

negative: High‐Stakes Remote‐Access Open‐Book Examinations The COVID‐19 pandemic has led to unprecedented challenges in medical school assessments. Final year high‐stakes assessments have classically used closed book examinations (CBEs). Alternative methods of assessment such as open book examinations (OBEs) are emerging but are not routinely used in final year medical school exams. OBEs encourage the use of problem‐solving skills more akin to those used in real‐life. There is currently limited data comparing OBEs with CBEs. A systematic review showed there was insufficient evidence to support the exclusive use of either CBEs or OBEs in assessment, however the studies conducted to date have rarely looked at high‐stakes assessments due to concerns about the validity of OBEs(1).

negative: Factors Associated With Measles Transmission in the United States During the Postelimination Era IMPORTANCE: Measles cases and outbreaks continue to occur in the United States after the introduction of measles from endemic settings. OBJECTIVE: To discern the factors associated with measles transmission in the United States after measles had been eliminated. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study was conducted from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2017, in the United States among US residents and international visitors with confirmed measles. A maximum likelihood algorithm that uses the observed dates of rash onset and the known distribution of the serial interval (time between symptom onset in related consecutive cases) was applied to outbreak notification data to estimate the effective reproduction number (R), or the mean number of new infections generated per case. Transmissibility was assessed by comparing R based on the characteristics of primary and secondary cases of measles. EXPOSURES: Measles virus. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Effective reproduction number (R), or the mean number of successful transmission events per case of measles (ie, the mean number of persons to whom each patient with measles spreads measles). RESULTS: A total of 2218 individuals with confirmed measles cases (1025 female, 1176 male, and 17 sex not reported; median age, 15 years [range, 0-89 years]) reported from 2001 to 2017 were evaluated. Among patients who received no doses of measles vaccine, R was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.71-0.81); among patients who received 1 dose of measles vaccine, R was 0.17 (95% CI, 0.11-0.26); among patients who received 2 doses or more of measles vaccine, R was 0.27 (95% CI, 0.17-0.39); and among patients with unknown vaccination status, R was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.44-0.60). Among patients born before 1957, R was 0.35 (95% CI, 0.20-0.58), and among those born on or after 1957, R was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.68). R was higher when primary and secondary cases of measles were patients aged 5 to 17 years (0.36 [95% CI, 0.31-0.42]) compared with assortative transmission in other age groups (<1 year, 0.14 [95% CI, 0.10-0.20]; 1-4 years, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.20-0.30]; 18-29 years, 0.19 [95% CI, 0.15-0.24]; 30-49 years, 0.15 [95% CI, 0.11-0.20]; ≥50 years, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.10]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this study support having high targets for 2-dose measles vaccine coverage, particularly among school-aged children in the United States.

negative: The role of economic structural factors in determining pandemic mortality rates: Evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak in France Abstract Among the majority of research on individual factors leading to coronavirus mortality, age has been identified as a dominant factor. Health and other individual factors including gender, comorbidity, ethnicity and obesity have also been identified by other studies. In contrast, we examine the role of economic structural factors on COVID-19 mortality rates. Particularly, focusing on a densely populated region of France, we document evidence that higher economic “precariousness indicators” such as unemployment and poverty rates, lack of formal education and housing are important factors in determining COVID-19 mortality rates. Our study will help inform policy makers regarding the role of economic factors in managing pandemics.

negative: Modeling the effect of information transmission on the drug dynamic In each community, there is a lot of information about the disadvantages and risks of drug use and its negative effects on health, work, honor, and other living funds of people. A group of individuals, who can be called responsive individuals, will be safe from the risk of drug abuse, by receiving and understanding such information. In this paper, by proposing mathematical models, we investigate the effect of the distribution of this kind of information on the transformation of susceptible individuals into responsive individuals as well as their effect in preventing the occurrence of substance abuse epidemics. In these models, we take into account the fact that the spirit of responsiveness of these individuals can be decayed with time, and these people can become susceptible people, and eventually to addicts. We analyze the dynamical properties of the models, such as local and global stability of equilibrium points and the occurrence of backward bifurcation. The results of this study show that the higher the rate of conversion of susceptible individuals to those responsive, the prevention of drug epidemy is easier.

negative: C3 polymorphisms represent an important immunological confounder on the spread and outcome of COVID-19

negative: COVID-19 in Uganda: Predicting the impact of the disease and public health response on disease burden Objective COVID-19 transmission and the lock-down response are now established in sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda. Population age distributions and prior morbidities differ markedly in these countries from those where large outbreaks have become established previously. We determined to predict likely impact of COVID-19 and the response on the Ugandan population, measure and compare these appropriately, to understand whether the benefits of the response could be outweighed by the costs. Design and setting We applied age-based COVID-19 mortality data from China to the population structures of Uganda and countries with previously established outbreaks, comparing theoretical mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Based on recent Uganda health system data and on theoretical scenarios of program deterioration, we predicted potential mortality and DALYs lost for HIV/AIDS, malaria and maternal. Main outcome measures Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost, mortality. Results Based on population age structure alone, Uganda is predicted to have a relatively low COVID-19 burden, with 12% of the mortality and 19% of the lost DALYs predicted for equivalent transmission in the Italian population. Scenarios of lockdown impact predict comparable or higher burdens from HIV or malaria alone to that of an extensive COVID-19 outbreak. Emerging disease data presented from Uganda, including HIV case finding and maternal mortality, suggest early signs that such deterioration could be occurring. Conclusions The results indicate that COVID-19 impact on Uganda may be relatively light, while there is a high risk of a significant negative impact on other disease burden if the lockdown response to COVID-19 is prolonged. The results are likely to extend to other sub-Saharan populations, underlining the importance of tailoring COVID-19 responses according to population structure and potential disease vulnerabilities.

negative: Resuming elective surgical services in times of COVID-19 infection The consequences of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus have been devastating to the healthcare system. As the positive effects of social distancing, mandatory masking, and societal lockdown on the spread of the disease and its incidence in the community were documented, societal and financial pressures mounted worldwide, prompting efforts to “re-open” countries, states, communities, businesses, and schools. The same happened with hospital, which had to start developing strategies to resume elective surgery activities. This manuscript describes the pre-requisites as well as the strategies for resuming surgical activity, be it in the outpatient or inpatient setting.

negative: The psychological state and changes in the routine of the patients with rheumatic diseases during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Turkey: a web-based cross-sectional survey We hypothesized that patients with rheumatic diseases (RD) would have increased psychological distress during the COVID-19 outbreak; therefore, assessed their psychological symptoms and changes in their routine. A web-based questionnaire survey was conducted in a cross-sectional design in three groups of participants: (1.) patients with RD, (2.) hospital workers, and (3.) high-school teachers/academic staff. Psychiatric status was evaluated using Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale and Impact of Event Scale-Revised scale. Overall response rate was 34.7%. We studied 771 patients with RD, 535 hospital workers, and 917 teachers/academic staff. Most of the patients with RD were unwilling to go to the hospital (86%), while 22% discontinued their medications. Biological DMARDS were the most frequent drugs whose doses were altered. Only 4% were willing to take hydroxychloroquine for protection. Moreover, the frequency of anxiety (20%), depression (43%), and post-traumatic stress (28%) among patients with RD were found to be comparable to that found among the teachers/academic staff (23%, 43% and 29%, respectively), whereas significantly less than that observed among the hospital workers (40%, 62%, and 46%, respectively) (p < 0.001). Female gender, use of social media, having a comorbid disease, or a psychiatric disorder were found to be independently associated with psychiatric symptoms in total study population. The majority of the patients were unwilling to attend outpatient visits and one-fifth skipped or stopped their immunosuppressive agents. Psychiatric symptoms in patient’s and teacher’s populations were of considerable clinical concern, despite being significantly lower than that observed among the hospital workers. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s00296-020-04626-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

negative: Answering the Call: Medical Students Reinforce Health System Frontlines Through Ochsner COVID-19 Hotline

negative: No Autopsies on COVID-19 Deaths: A Missed Opportunity and the Lockdown of Science Background: The current outbreak of COVID-19 infection, which started in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, in December 2019, is an ongoing challenge and a significant threat to public health requiring surveillance, prompt diagnosis, and research efforts to understand a new, emergent, and unknown pathogen and to develop effective therapies. Despite the increasing number of published studies on COVID-19, in all the examined studies the lack of a well-defined pathophysiology of death among patients who died following COVID-19 infection is evident. Autopsy should be considered mandatory to define the exact cause of death, thus providing useful clinical and epidemiologic information as well as pathophysiological insights to further provide therapeutic tools. Methods: A literature review was performed on PubMed database, using the key terms: “COVID-19”, “nCov 19”, and “Sars Cov 2”. 9709 articles were retrieved; by excluding all duplicated articles, additional criteria were then applied: articles or abstracts in English and articles containing one of the following words: “death”, “died”, “comorbidity”, “cause of death”, “biopsy”, “autopsy”, or “pathological”. Results: A total of 50 articles met the inclusion criteria. However, only 7 of these studies reported autopsy-based data. Discussion: The analysis of the main data from the selected studies concerns the complete analysis of 12,954 patients, of whom 2269 died (with a mortality rate of 17.52%). Laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection was obtained in all cases and comorbidities were fully reported in 46 studies. The most common comorbidities were: cardiovascular diseases (hypertension and coronary artery disease), metabolic disorders (diabetes, overweight, or obesity), respiratory disorders (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and cancer. The most common reported complications were: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), acute kidney injury, cardiac injury, liver insufficiency, and septic shock. Only 7 papers reported histological investigations. Nevertheless, only two complete autopsies are described and the cause of death was listed as COVID-19 in only one of them. The lack of postmortem investigation did not allow a definition of the exact cause of death to determine the pathways of this infection. Based on the few histopathological findings reported in the analyzed studies, it seems to be a clear alteration of the coagulation system: frequently prothrombotic activity with consequent thromboembolism was described in COVID-19 patients. As a scientific community, we are called on to face this global threat, and to defeat it with all the available tools necessary. Despite the improvement and reinforcement of any method of study in every field of medicine and science, encouraging the autopsy practice as a tool of investigation could also therefore, help physicians to define an effective treatment to reduce mortality.

negative: Inequalities in air pollution exposure are increasing in the United States Exposure to ambient air pollution contributes substantially to the global burden of disease, and in 2015, ambient exposure to PM2.5 (fine particles with a mass median aerodynamic diameter of less than 2.5 m) was the fifth-ranking risk factor of mortality globally. We analyzed data from the US zip code tabulation areas (N=32047) for 2000-2016 and found strong evidence of inequalities in exposure to PM2.5 among both racial/ethnic and income groups. Most alarming, we found that these inequalities have been increasing over time. From 2010 to 2016 inequalities in the exposure to PM2.5 levels above 8 g/m3 across racial/ethnic, and income groups increased by factors of 1.6 and 4.0 respectively. As shown in our powerful map visualizations, these results indicate that air pollution regulations must not only decrease PM2.5 concentration levels nationwide but also prioritize reducing environmental injustice across the US.

negative: COVID-19 and Community Dental Services: The challenges ahead

negative: Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic Understanding changes in human mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing the impacts of travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigated the spatio-temporal characteristics of human mobility between 1st January and 1st March 2020 and discussed their public health implications. An outbound travel surge from Wuhan before travel restrictions were implemented was also observed across China due to the Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday travel may have played a larger role in mobility changes compared to impending travel restrictions. Holiday travel also shifted healthcare pressure related to COVID-19 towards locations with lower access to care. Network analyses showed no sign of major changes in the transportation network after Lunar New Year. Changes observed were temporary and have not yet led to structural reorganisation of the transportation network at the time of this study.

negative: Impact of enhanced personal protective equipment on colonoscopy performance during the COVID-19 pandemic Background and study aims Using personal protective equipment (PPE) can reduce risk of disease transmission. During the COVID-19 pandemic, enhanced PPE (EPPE) is recommended when performing endoscopy. We aimed to evaluate the impact of EPPE on colonoscopy performance when compared to standard PPE (SPPE). Patients and methods A review of electronic medical records and endoscopy reports of consecutive patients who underwent colonoscopy during two similar one-month time periods (in 2019 and during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020) was performed. SPPE was used in 2019 and EPPE was used in 2020. Patient clinical data and procedure-related information were captured and analyzed. The primary outcomes were time to cecum (TTC) and total procedure time. Secondary outcomes were adenoma detection rate (ADR), polyp detection rate (PDR) and cecal intubation rate (CIR). Statistical analysis was performed using STATA v16.1. Results Two hundred and forty-seven colonoscopy procedures were analyzed. Baseline demographics and indications for colonoscopy of patients in both groups were similar. There were no significant differences in median TTC (10.0 vs 10.0 min, P = 0.524) or total procedure time (22.5 vs 23.0 min, P = 0.946) between colonoscopy performed in SPPE and EPPE. The ADR, PDR and CIR were also similar. Conclusion Our findings suggest that use of EPPE does not affect colonoscopy performance.

negative: Hypoxemia IN COVID-19 Patients: An Hypothesis The current SARS-Cov-2 virus pandemic challenges critical care physicians and other caregivers to find effective treatment for desperately ill patients — especially those with sudden and extreme hypoxemia. Unlike patients with other forms of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, these patients do not exhibit increased lung stiffness or dramatic dyspnea., even in the presence of arterial blood oxygen levels lower than that seen normally in mixed venous blood. Urgent intubation and mechanical ventilation with high inflation pressures and raised inhaled oxygen concentration have proved unhelpful or worse, but why? Our Hypothesis is that sudden opening of a previously undetected probe-patent foramen ovale (PPFO) may explain this mystery. As hypoxemia without acidosis is a rather weak stimulus of dyspnea or increased ventilation, and opening of such an intracardiac shunt would not worsen lung mechanical properties, the absence of dramatic symptom changes would not be surprising. We point out the high frequency of PFO both in life and at autopsy, and the physiological evidence of large shunt fractions found in Covid-19 patients. Published evidence of hypercoagulability and abundant evidence of pulmonary emboli found at autopsy are in accord with our hypothesis, as they would contribute to raised pressure in the pulmonary arteries and right heart chambers, potentially causing a shunt to open. We review the interaction between viral corona spike protein and ACE-2 receptors present on the surface of alveolar lining cells, and contribution to hypercoagulabilty caused by the spike protein. Search for an open PFO after a large drop in arterial oxygen saturation can be performed at the bedside with a variety of well-established techniques including bedside echocardiography, nitrogen washout test, and imaging studies. Potential treatments might include balloon or patch closure of the shunt, and various drug treatments to lower pulmonary vascular resistance.

negative: Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus in the 1918 Pandemic BACKGROUND: With a heightened increase in concern for an influenza pandemic we sought to better understand the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the most devastating epidemic of the previous century. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data from several communities in Maryland, USA as well as two ships that experienced well-documented outbreaks of influenza in 1918. Using a likelihood-based method and a nonparametric method, we estimate the serial interval and reproductive number throughout the course of each outbreak. This analysis shows the basic reproductive number to be slightly lower in the Maryland communities (between 1.34 and 3.21) than for the enclosed populations on the ships (R(0) = 4.97, SE = 3.31). Additionally the effective reproductive number declined to sub epidemic levels more quickly on the ships (within around 10 days) than in the communities (within 30–40 days). The mean serial interval for the ships was consistent (3.33, SE = 5.96 and 3.81, SE = 3.69), while the serial intervals in the communities varied substantially (between 2.83, SE = 0.53 and 8.28, SE = 951.95). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results illustrate the importance of considering the population dynamics when making statements about the epidemiological parameters of Influenza. The methods that we employ for estimation of the reproductive numbers and the serial interval can be easily replicated in other populations and with other diseases.

negative: Adult learning and education as a tool to contain pandemics: The COVID-19 experience In combating pandemics, more can be gained by changing citizens’ behaviours than by relying solely on the medical route. In the current COVID-19 pandemic, the struggle to contain the outbreak and push back new infection figures will ultimately be won by training citizens how to avoid creating secondary transmission chains. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights the relationship between individual behaviour and group risk. Mass training of all social strata of a country’s entire population is therefore critical in mitigating the pandemic. The authors of this article argue that adult learning and education (ALE) can play a pivotal role particularly in countries where average literacy levels are low, as these are usually the same countries in which healthcare systems are more fragile. This article explains why ALE, especially the promotion of health literacy as part of ALE (which is itself part of lifelong learning), is necessary to enable individuals to make informed health-related decisions. Research has shown that low- or non-literate individuals are less responsive to health education, less likely to use disease prevention services, and less likely to successfully manage chronic disease than literate citizens. The authors refer to the evaluation of the health literacy aspect of a large-scale adult literacy campaign launched in South Africa in 2008 which has yielded measurable outcomes and proved that the intervention had enabled adults to better understand health messages. They stress the importance of populations having at least a basic level of literacy and numeracy skills to enable them to receive and act on vital information during a pandemic or disaster. They argue that ALE should in fact be understood as an inherent element of every national emergency strategy, both in terms of prior preparation for possible future emergencies (such as pandemics, earthquakes, tornados, flooding, bushfires etc.), and in terms of reaction to a given emergency such as the current COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: Fuelling regional development or exporting value? The role of the gas industry on the Limestone Coast, South Australia Abstract The degree to which host regions benefit from resource extraction is a major issue for research and policy. In Australia and Canada, the dominant narrative of resource extraction is that most of the benefits flow away from host regions. This paper draws on evolutionary economic geography, presenting a case study of the Limestone Coast in South Australia, which previously extracted and distributed gas locally to food and fibre manufacturing industries. New policies seeking to renew the gas industry in the region, provide subsidies for exploration. Scenarios were developed to help inform decisions about the role of gas within this region. Qualitative analysis of the scenarios emphasised that gas needs to be affordable and locally accessible. Quantitative modelling showed that using the gas locally by manufacturing industries as part of broader industrial expansion would lead to greater benefits compared with exporting all gas outside the region. We conclude that policy settings have gone some way towards realising increased benefits for the region. Regional stakeholders clearly favoured the local use scenario but saw it as unlikely in the context of current infrastructure limitations. Stakeholders sought policy support for infrastructure to enable the preferred scenario to be realised.

negative: Antihyperglycemic properties of hydroxychloroquine in patients with diabetes: risks and benefits at the time of COVID‐19 pandemic The antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has long been used as a disease‐modifying antirheumatic drug for the treatment of several inflammatory rheumatic diseases. Over the last three decades, various studies have shown that HCQ plays also a role in the regulation of glucose homeostasis. Although the mechanisms of action underlying the glucose‐lowering properties of HCQ are still not entirely clear, evidence suggests that this drug may exert multifaceted effects on glucose regulation, including improvement of insulin sensitivity, increase of insulin secretion, reduction of hepatic insulin clearance and reduction of systemic inflammation. Preliminary studies have shown the safety and efficacy of HCQ (at a dose ranging from 400 to 600 mg/day) in patients with type 2 diabetes over a short‐term period. In 2014, HCQ has been approved in India as an add‐on hypoglycemic agent for patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes. However, large randomized controlled trials are needed to establish the safety and efficacy profile of HCQ in patients with type 2 diabetes over a long‐term period. With regard to the COVID‐19 pandemic, several medications (including HCQ) have been used as off‐label drugs due to the lack of proven effective therapies. However, emerging evidence shows limited benefit from HCQ use in COVID‐19 in general. The aim of this manuscript is to comprehensively summarize the current knowledge on the antihyperglycemic properties of HCQ and to critically evaluate the potential risks and benefits related to HCQ use in patients with diabetes, even in light of the current pandemic scenario. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

negative: Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19 Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider both the age composition of local and national contexts as well as the social connectedness of older and younger generations. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted nowcasting.

negative: Remdesivir in Treatment of COVID-19: A Systematic Benefit-Risk Assessment INTRODUCTION: There is a need to identify effective, safe treatments for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) rapidly, given the current, ongoing pandemic. A systematic benefit-risk assessment was designed and conducted to examine the benefit-risk profile of remdesivir in COVID-19 patients compared with standard of care, placebo or other treatments. A key objective of this study was to provide a platform for a dynamic systematic benefit-risk evaluation, which starts with inevitably limited information (to meet the urgent unmet public health need worldwide), then update the benefit-risk evaluation as more data become available. METHODS: The Benefit-Risk Action Team (BRAT) framework was used to assess the overall benefit-risk of the use of remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19 compared with standard of care, placebo or other treatments. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and government agency websites to identify literature reporting clinical outcomes in patients taking remdesivir for COVID-19. A value tree was constructed and key benefits and risks were ranked by two clinicians in order of considered importance. RESULTS: Using the BRAT method, several key benefits and risks for use of remdesivir in COVID-19 compared with placebo have been identified. In one trial, the benefit of time to clinical improvement was not statistically significant (21 vs 23 days, HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.87-1.75), although the study was underpowered. In another trial, a shorter time to recovery in patients treated with remdesivir was observed (11 vs 15 days), with non-significant reduced mortality risk (8% vs 12%). Risk data were only available from one trial. This trial reported fewer serious adverse events in patients taking remdesivir (18%) compared with the placebo group (26%); however, more patients in the remdesivir group discontinued treatment as a result of an adverse event compared with those patients receiving placebo (12% vs 5%). CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary clinical trial results suggest that there may be a favourable benefit-risk profile for remdesivir compared with placebo in severe COVID-19 infection and further data on benefits would strengthen this evaluation. There is limited safety data for remdesivir, which should be obtained in further studies. The current framework summarises the key anticipated benefits and risks for which further data are needed. Ongoing clinical trial data can be incorporated into the framework when available to provide an updated benefit-risk assessment.

negative: The COVID-19 pandemic: we are all in this together

negative: Dialogue in community: conditions and enablers for teacher professional development in Catholic schools This article explores conditions and enablers for teacher professional learning in religious education in Catholic schools. It examines the impact on religion of the pluralising and secularising influences in Australia today and identifies what this asks of religious education and religious educators in response. New pedagogical approaches which emphasise identity formation as critical to religious education, make teacher identity formation and ongoing learning vital for Catholic schools to undertake. The article proposes that teacher professional learning in Catholic schools focus on developing the following three dispositions and skills: self-awareness and reflexivity; openness to faith perspectives; and courageous communication skills. The article investigates teacher professional learning theory and research to make recommendations for teacher development in religious education. It raises two concepts as integral to professional learning in a Catholic context: Dialogue and Community. These concepts are highlighted as theologically and strategically important for Catholic school communities to attend to and explore.

negative: PTSD as the second tsunami of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic Since the first cases, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) rapidly spread around the world, with hundred−thousand cases and thousands of deaths. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a common consequence of major disasters. Exceptional epidemic situations also promoted PTSD in the past. Considering that humanity is undergoing the most severe pandemic since Spanish Influenza, the actual pandemic of COVID-19 is very likely to promote PTSD. Moreover, COVID-19 was renamed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2). With a poor understanding of viruses and spreading mechanisms, the evocation of SARS is generating a great anxiety contributing to promote PTSD. Quarantine of infected patients evolved to quarantine of ‘infected’ towns or popular districts, and then of entire countries. In the families of cases, the brutal death of family members involved a spread of fear and a loss of certainty, promoting PTSD. In the context of disaster medicine with a lack of human and technical resources, healthcare workers could also develop acute stress disorders, potentially degenerating into chronic PTSD. Globally, WHO estimates 30–50% of the population affected by a disaster suffered from diverse psychological distress. PTSD individuals are more at-risk of suicidal ideation, suicide attempt, and deaths by suicide – considering that healthcare workers are already at-risk occupations. We draw attention towards PTSD as a secondary effect of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, both for general population, patients, and healthcare workers. Healthcare policies need to take into account preventive strategy of PTSD, and the related risk of suicide, in forthcoming months.

negative: The Wider Impacts of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the NHS The coronavirus pandemic has had huge impacts on the National Health Service (NHS). Patients suffering from the illness have placed unprecedented demands on acute care, particularly on Intensive Care Units (ICUs). This has led to an effort to dramatically increase the resources available to NHS hospitals in treating these patients, involving re‐organisation of hospital facilities, redeployment of existing staff and a drive to bring in recently retired and newly graduated staff to fight the pandemic. These increases in demand and changes to supply have had large knock‐on effects on the care provided to the wider population. This paper discusses likely implications for healthcare delivery in the short and medium term of the responses to the coronavirus pandemic, focusing primarily on the implications for non‐coronavirus patients. Patterns of past care suggest those most likely to be affected by these disruptions will be older individuals and those living in more deprived areas, potentially exacerbating pre‐existing health inequalities. Effects are likely to persist into the longer‐run, with particular challenges around recruitment and ongoing staff shortages. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

negative: Sampling methods for the quasistationary regime of epidemic processes on regular and complex networks A major hurdle in the simulation of the steady state of epidemic processes is that the system will unavoidably visit an absorbing, disease-free state at sufficiently long times due to the finite size of the networks where epidemics evolves. In the present work, we compare different quasistationary (QS) simulation methods where the absorbing states are suitably handled and the thermodynamical limit of the original dynamics can be achieved. We analyze the standard QS (SQS) method, where the sampling is constrained to active configurations, the reflecting boundary condition (RBC), where the dynamics returns to the pre-absorbing configuration, and hub reactivation (HR), where the most connected vertex of the network is reactivated after a visit to an absorbing state. We apply the methods to the contact process (CP) and susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) models on regular and scale free networks. The investigated methods yield the same epidemic threshold for both models. For CP, that undergoes a standard collective phase transition, the methods are equivalent. For SIS, whose phase transition is ruled by the hub mutual reactivation, the SQS and HR methods are able to capture localized epidemic phases while RBC is not. We also apply the autocorrelation time as a tool to characterize the phase transition and observe that this analysis provides the same finite-size scaling exponents for the critical relaxation time for the investigated methods. Finally, we verify the equivalence between RBC method and a weak external field for epidemics on networks.

negative: Changes to management of a non-pandemic illness during the COVID-19 pandemic: case study of invasive management of acute coronary syndrome. The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic requires significant changes to standard operating procedures for non-COVID-19 related illnesses. Balancing the benefit from standard evidence-based treatments with the risks posed by COVID-19 to patients, healthcare workers and to the population at large is difficult due to incomplete and rapidly changing information. In this article, we use management of acute coronary syndromes as a case study to show how these competing risks and benefits can be resolved, albeit incompletely. While the risks due to COVID-19 in patients with acute coronary syndromes is unclear, the benefits of standard management are well established in this condition. As an aid to decision making, we recommend systematic estimation of the risks and benefits for management of any condition where there is likely to be an increase in non-COVID-19 related mortality and morbidity due to changes in routine care.

negative: Fighting COVID-19: Enabling Graduating Students to Start Internship Early at Their Own Medical School This perspective proposes one way to ensure enough doctors, nurses, and pharmacists during the COVID-19 pandemic: Enable graduating students to start internship early at their own medical school.

negative: School Nurse Workload: Students Are More Than Just Numbers. NASN has found a lack of research-based evidence to support the caseload ratio model of school nurse staffing. In keeping with the practices of school administrators, other school support personnel, and community health care providers, NASN is transitioning to the workload model to guide safe school nurse staffing. The workload model considers more than ratio and acuity; instead, it provides a full description of school nurse activities and other influences on student health.

negative: Precautions and Procedures for Coronary and Structural Cardiac Interventions during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Guidance from Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology Abstract The globe is currently in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. This pandemic has placed considerable stress on health care resources and providers. This document from the Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology - Association Canadienne de Cardiologie d'intervention, specifically addresses the implications for the care of patients in the Cardiac Catheterization Laboratory (CCL) in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. The key principles of this document are to maintain essential interventional cardiovascular care while minimizing risks of COVID-19 to patients/staff and maintaining the overall healthcare resources. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, procedures will be increased or reduced based on the current level of restriction to health care services. While some consistency across the country is desirable, provincial and regional considerations will influence how these recommendations are implemented. We believe the framework and recommendations in this document will provide crucial guidance for clinicians and policy makers on the management of coronary and structural procedures in the CCL as the COVID-19 pandemic escalates and eventually abates.

negative: Management of Patients with Cerebellar Ataxia During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Current Concerns and Future Implications The current worldwide severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought some medical systems to the brink of collapse. This crisis is also negatively impacting the care of patients with non-COVID-19 conditions, including those with cerebellar ataxia (CA). Older patients with CA and those with immune-mediated ataxias on immunosuppressive medication are potentially at high risk of developing serious complications of the infection, although it is also possible that immunosuppressive agents may provide a defense against cytokine storm. This has implications for even greater attention to preventing contracting the disease through physical distancing and/or isolation. The CA patient population is also at higher risk because of the neurological complexities of their underlying disorder and the comorbid medical illnesses that often accompany the genetic ataxias. As the disruption of social patterns and healthcare delivery in response to the crisis continues, interruption of rehabilitation, speech and language therapy, and face-to-face consultations threatens to have a negative impact on the course and well-being of CA patients. Mental and physical health is also potentially at greater risk because the prevailing uncertainty and anxiety may be superimposed upon cerebellum-specific neuropsychological challenges. We identify and review some of the short- and long-term consequences of this global pandemic for the community of ataxia patients and their families and for the clinical and academic neurologists/ataxiologists caring for these patients. This includes the recognition that telemedicine has emerged as a principle means of caregiver-patient contact and that neurological manifestations of COVID-19 including those specific to cerebellar neurobiology are increasingly recognized and will require close surveillance and monitoring. This COVID-19 Cerebellum Task Force consensus provides some guidance on how we may approach this uncertain time and consider preparing for the new realities we face in CA patient care once this acute crisis has passed.

negative: The Rise and Regulation of Thermal Facial Recognition Technology during the COVID-19 Pandemic

negative: Prioritizing Physician Mental Health as COVID-19 Marches On

negative: COVID-19 and Headache Medicine: A Narrative Review of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAID) and Corticosteroid Use OBJECTIVE: To summarize the current literature on non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug and corticosteroid use during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, recognizing that these are commonly used treatments in the field of headache medicine. BACKGROUND: The use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and corticosteroids in patients during the COVID-19 pandemic has been a controversial topic within the medical community and international and national health organizations. Lay press and social media outlets have circulated opinions on this topic despite the fact that the evidence for or against the use of these medications is sparse. In the field of headache medicine, these medications are used commonly and both patients and clinicians may have questions or hesitations pertaining to their use during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: A detailed search of the scientific and popular literature was performed. RESULTS: There is limited literature pertaining to the safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and corticosteroids during the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, there are no clear scientific data that preclude the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in the general population who may acquire COVID-19 or in those acutely infected with the virus. Several health organizations have concluded that treatment with corticosteroids during active infection should be avoided due to concerns of prolonged viral shedding in the respiratory tract and the lack of survival benefit based on the data from past coronaviruses and influenza virus; specific exceptions exist including treatment for underlying asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, septic shock, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. CONCLUSION: Scientific information regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is constantly evolving, and limited or contradictory information can lead to confusion for both patients and clinicians. It is recommended that prior to prescribing non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and steroids for the treatment of headache, clinicians have open discussions with their patients about the potential risks and benefits of using these medications during the COVID-19 pandemic. This manuscript summarizes the currently available evidence and understanding about these risks and benefits to help clinicians navigate such discussions.

negative: Achieving Effective Informed Oversight by DMCs in COVID Clinical Trials Abstract Best practices of Data Monitoring Committees (DMCs) in randomized clinical trials are well established. Independent oversight provided by DMCs is particularly important in trials conducted in public health emergencies, such as in HIV/AIDS or coronavirus epidemics. Special considerations are needed to enable DMCs to effectively address novel circumstances they face in such settings. In the COVID-19 pandemic, these include the remarkable speed in which data regarding benefits and risks of interventions are accumulated. DMCs must hold frequent virtual meetings, using state-of-the-art communication software that protects against risk for security breaches. Data capture and DMC reports should be focused on the most informative measures about benefits and risks. Since numerous clinical trials are being concurrently conducted in the COVID-19 setting, often addressing closely related scientific questions, structures for DMC oversight should be efficient and adequately informative. When these concurrently conducted trials are evaluating related regimens in related clinical settings, often individually underpowered for safety and having separate DMCs, processes should be implemented enabling these DMCs to share with each other emerging confidential evidence to better assess risks and benefits. Ideally a single DMC would monitor a portfolio of clinical trials or a trial with multiple arms, such as a platform trial.

negative: A Roadmap to Reopening a Neurosurgical Practice in the age of COVID-19 Abstract The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has left a lasting mark on medicine globally. Here we outline the steps that the Lenox Hill Hospital/Northwell Health Neurosurgery Department—located within the epicenter of the pandemic in New York City—is currently taking to recover our neurosurgical efforts in the age of COVID-19. We outline measurable milestones to identify the transition to the recovery period and hope these recommendations may serve as a framework for an effective path forward. We believe that recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic offers unique opportunities to disrupt and rebuild the historical patient and office experience as we evolve with modern medicine in a post-COVID-19 world.

negative: COVID-19: A Risk Assessment Perspective [Image: see text] COVID-19 is a newly emerging viral respiratory disease first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease is caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which is related to the viruses that cause SARS and MERS. While the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 (5%) is far lower than that for SARS (11%) and MERS (34%), COVID-19 is spreading relatively uncontrolled at this time across the globe. In contrast, SARS appears to be contained, and MERS is controlled. This paper will explore why COVID-19 is able to progress to a global pandemic that affects our daily lives to an extent not known in recent history. The COVID-19 outbreak and spread will be examined based on the current literature, using a researcher’s perspective of risk assessment and risk mitigation; this approach will be related to public health.

negative: Causes of variability in prevalence rates of communicable diseases among secondary school Students in Kisumu County, Kenya PURPOSE: To determine causes of variability in communicable disease prevalence rates among students in secondary schools to inform policy formulation in the public health sector. METHODS: A representative cluster sample size for students was estimated using Fisher et al.’s formula while schools, sub-counties and education zones were clustered and sample size was calculated based on coefficient of variation by school type. Data were collected by questionnaire, medical examination using standard procedures, and focus group discussion, and descriptive analysis was performed on the completed questions. Comparisons between risk factors were made by chi-square and ANOVA analysis using SPSS for Windows (version 15.2; Chicago, IL) software. A p value of < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: There was significant variation between communicable disease prevalence rates and age (X(2) (4, 0.05) = 2.458), school size (X(2) (12, 0.05) = 18.636), gender (X(2) (4, 0.05) = 5.723) and class of students (X(2) (12, 0.05) = 15.202), and bed and desk spacing (p < 0.05 at 95% CI). However, there was no significant association in prevalence rates between both locality and type of school. There was strong evidence that student age has an effect on prevalence rates. The prevalence rate of malaria was higher in male (14.02%) than female students (6.68%) compared to prevalence of diarrhea, which was higher in female (7.96%) than male students. CONCLUSION: This study has revealed that the prevalences of diarrhea, tuberculosis, pneumonia and other respiratory tract infections are lower among female secondary school students than males and that the prevalence of malaria is higher in males than females. Age of secondary school students is a significant vulnerability factor for malaria, diarrhea, tuberculosis and pneumonia, which were the important communicable diseases most prevalent among secondary school students in Kisumu County, Kenya.

negative: Management of COVID-19: the risks associated with treatment are clear, but the benefits remain uncertain. Even though the early reports from China provided advance warning of what was to come, the COVID-19 pandemic has spread throughout the world with devastating consequences. Emergency measures are being implemented to reduce the magnitude of the public health crisis, prevent healthcare facilities from becoming overwhelmed and reduce the death toll of the disease. Containment strategies to mitigate viral transmission and emergency measures to increase the capacity of each country to provide intensive care are at the forefront of the public health management of the epidemic, even though the detrimental social and psychological effects of quarantine are evident on a global scale. Optimal management of critically ill patients with COVID-19 is also unclear, and the initial suggestion for early intubation as in typical ARDS may have caused significant harm. The management of mild cases of confirmed infection is another point of controversy, as drugs which may be repurposed for COVID-19 treatment have significant, potentially irreversible toxic effects and their use in mild cases of a viral illness which is typically self-limited may be harmful.

negative: COVID-19 in Northern Italy: An integrative overview of factors possibly influencing the sharp increase of the outbreak Italy is currently one of the countries seriously affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As per 10 April 2020, 147,577 people were found positive in a total of 906,864 tests performed and 18,849 people lost their lives. Among all cases, 70.2% of positive, and 79.4% of deaths occurred in the provinces of Northern Italy (Lombardi, Emilia Romagna, Veneto and Piemonte), where the outbreak first started. Originally, it was considered that the high number of positive cases and deaths in Italy resulted from COVID-19 initially coming to Italy from China, its presumed country of origin. However, an analysis of the factors that played a role in the extent of this outbreak is needed. Evaluating which factors could be specific for a country and which might contribute the most is nevertheless complex, with accompanying high uncertainty. The purpose of this work is to discuss some of the possible contributing factors and their possible role in the relatively high infection and death rates in Northern Italy compared to other areas and countries.

negative: Guidelines for TMS/tES clinical services and research through the COVID-19 pandemic BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has broadly disrupted biomedical treatment and research including non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS). Moreover, the rapid onset of societal disruption and evolving regulatory restrictions may not have allowed for systematic planning of how clinical and research work may continue throughout the pandemic or be restarted as restrictions are abated. The urgency to provide and develop NIBS as an intervention for diverse neurological and mental health indications, and as a catalyst of fundamental brain research, is not dampened by the parallel efforts to address the most life-threatening aspects of COVID-19; rather in many cases the need for NIBS is heightened including the potential to mitigate mental health consequences related to COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To facilitate the re-establishment of access to NIBS clinical services and research operations during the current COVID-19 pandemic and possible future outbreaks, we develop and discuss a framework for balancing the importance of NIBS operations with safety considerations, while addressing the needs of all stakeholders. We focus on Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) and low intensity transcranial Electrical Stimulation (tES) - including transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) and transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation (tACS). METHODS: The present consensus paper provides guidelines and good practices for managing and reopening NIBS clinics and laboratories through the immediate and ongoing stages of COVID-19. The document reflects the analysis of experts with domain-relevant expertise spanning NIBS technology, clinical services, and basic and clinical research - with an international perspective. We outline regulatory aspects, human resources, NIBS optimization, as well as accommodations for specific demographics. RESULTS: A model based on three phases (early COVID-19 impact, current practices, and future preparation) with an 11-step checklist (spanning removing or streamlining in-person protocols, incorporating telemedicine, and addressing COVID-19-associated adverse events) is proposed. Recommendations on implementing social distancing and sterilization of NIBS related equipment, specific considerations of COVID-19 positive populations including mental health comorbidities, as well as considerations regarding regulatory and human resource in the era of COVID-19 are outlined. We discuss COVID-19 considerations specifically for clinical (sub-)populations including pediatric, stroke, addiction, and the elderly. Numerous case-examples across the world are described. CONCLUSION: There is an evident, and in cases urgent, need to maintain NIBS operations through the COVID-19 pandemic, including anticipating future pandemic waves and addressing effects of COVID-19 on brain and mind. The proposed robust and structured strategy aims to address the current and anticipated future challenges while maintaining scientific rigor and managing risk.

negative: Voices from the Field: Addressing Job Burnout in School Psychology Training Programs Job burnout among school psychologists represents a potentially serious issue given widespread shortages of practitioners. It is then important to identify effective strategies for both preventing and responding to feelings of burnout when they occur to ultimately ensure a healthy workforce. The current study examined written responses provided by 122 practicing school psychologists in the Southeastern United States to the question, “What do you think training programs can do about the issue of burnout in school psychology.” A qualitative thematic analysis of responses resulted in the identification of three main themes: develop specific personal/professional skills, modify professional/training components, and modify administrative/organizational policies and seven associated sub-themes. Resulting themes are discussed in reference to specific recommendations training programs can take in the future to better address job burnout in the field.

negative: Is clinical effectiveness in the eye of the beholder during the COVID-19 pandemic?

negative: Medical Student Mobilization During a Pandemic: The Ochsner Clinical School Response to COVID-19

negative: Projecting the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on childhood obesity in the U.S.: A microsimulation model OBJECTIVE: The COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. led to nationwide stay-at-home orders and school closures. Declines in energy expenditure resulting from canceled physical education classes and reduced physical activity (PA) may elevate childhood obesity risk. This study estimated the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity. METHODS: A microsimulation model simulated the trajectory of a nationally representative kindergarten cohort's body mass index z-scores (BMIz) and childhood obesity prevalence from April 2020 to March 2021 under the control scenario without COVID-19 and under the 4 alternative scenarios with COVID-19—Scenario 1: 2-month nationwide school closure in April and May 2020; Scenario 2: Scenario 1 followed by a 10% reduction in daily PA in summer from June to August; Scenario 3: Scenario 2 followed by 2-month school closure in September and October; and Scenario 4: Scenario 3 followed by an additional 2-month school closure in November and December. RESULTS: Relative to the control scenario without COVID-19, Scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4 were associated with an increase in the mean BMIz by 0.056 (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 0.055–0.056), 0.084 (95%CI: 0.084–0.085), 0.141 (95%CI: 0.140–0.142), and 0.198 (95%CI: 0.197–0.199), respectively, and an increase in childhood obesity prevalence by 0.640 (95%CI: 0.515–0.765), 0.972 (95%CI: 0.819–1.126), 1.676 (95%CI: 1.475–1.877), and 2.373 (95%CI: 2.135–2.612) percentage points, respectively. Compared to girls and non-Hispanic whites and Asians, the impact of COVID-19 on childhood obesity was modestly larger among boys and non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics, respectively. CONCLUSION: Public health interventions are urgently called to promote an active lifestyle and engagement in PA among children to mitigate the adverse impact of COVID-19 on unhealthy weight gains and childhood obesity.

negative: Reducing Social Isolation of Seniors during COVID-19 through Medical Student Telephone Contact Abstract Social isolation has been associated with many adverse health outcomes in older adults. We describe a phone call outreach program in which health care professional student volunteers phoned older adults, living in long-term care facilities and the community, at risk of social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversation topics were related to coping, including fears/insecurities, isolation, and sources of support; health; and personal topics such as family and friends, hobbies, and life experiences. Student volunteers felt the calls were impactful both for the students and for the seniors, and call recipients expressed appreciation for receiving the calls and for the physicians who referred them for a call. This phone outreach strategy is easily generalizable, and can be adopted by medical schools to leverage students to connect to socially-isolated seniors in numerous settings.

negative: Winter School on sEMG Signal Processing: An Initiative to Reduce Educational Gaps and to Promote the Engagement of Physiotherapists and Movement Scientists With Science The application of surface electromyography (sEMG) in neurology is sometimes limited by a scientific background in the use of sEMG. Students frequently use sEMG only when developing their graduate studies. To reduce these barriers, we promoted a free Winter School on sEMG to Latin American students. The school was a 3-day event with theoretical classes and computer programming in Matlab. Lectures were delivered in Portuguese and Spanish to 50 participants. All lectures were recorded and made available on YouTube®. After the School, participants completed a written exam to receive a certificate. The written exam revealed the average effectiveness of 71 ± 20% in the comprehension of topics addressed during the school. Participants rated the School as “excellent” and considered the event as having changed their thoughts about the use of sEMG. Limited mathematical skills or background were the main barriers identified to follow the lectures and to make use of sEMG. We conclude that the Winter School had a positive impact on participant's formation, especially by showing them the importance of continuous involvement with the concepts related to sEMG to become proficient in its use. From the participant's point of view, the activity was excellent and the follow up of the school on YouTube® suggests that combining face-to-face activities followed by the online availability of lectures is a valid strategy to reinforce the learning process and to reduce barriers in the use of sEMG. Whether similar results would be achieved for a paid registration event in an economically developing region, still requires further investigation.

negative: Caring for bereaved family members during the COVID-19 pandemic: before and after the death of a patient Abstract Bereavement care is considered an integral component of quality end-of-life care endorsed by the palliative care movement. However, few hospitals and health care institutions offer universal bereavement care to all families of patients who die. The current COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted this gap and created a sense of urgency, from a public health perspective, for institutions to provide support to bereaved family members. In this article, drawing upon the palliative care and bereavement literature, we offer suggestions about how to incorporate palliative care tools and psychological strategies into bereavement care for families during this pandemic.

negative: Visualizing the invisible: class excursions to ignite children's enthusiasm for microbes We have recently argued that, because microbes have pervasive - often vital - influences on our lives, and that therefore their roles must be taken into account in many of the decisions we face, society must become microbiology-literate, through the introduction of relevant microbiology topics in school curricula (Timmis et al. 2019. Environ Microbiol 21: 1513-1528). The current coronavirus pandemic is a stark example of why microbiology literacy is such a crucial enabler of informed policy decisions, particularly those involving preparedness of public-health systems for disease outbreaks and pandemics. However, a significant barrier to attaining widespread appreciation of microbial contributions to our well-being and that of the planet is the fact that microbes are seldom visible: most people are only peripherally aware of them, except when they fall ill with an infection. And it is disease, rather than all of the positive activities mediated by microbes, that colours public perception of 'germs' and endows them with their poor image. It is imperative to render microbes visible, to give them life and form for children (and adults), and to counter prevalent misconceptions, through exposure to imagination-capturing images of microbes and examples of their beneficial outputs, accompanied by a balanced narrative. This will engender automatic mental associations between everyday information inputs, as well as visual, olfactory and tactile experiences, on the one hand, and the responsible microbes/microbial communities, on the other hand. Such associations, in turn, will promote awareness of microbes and of the many positive and vital consequences of their actions, and facilitate and encourage incorporation of such consequences into relevant decision-making processes. While teaching microbiology topics in primary and secondary school is key to this objective, a strategic programme to expose children directly and personally to natural and managed microbial processes, and the results of their actions, through carefully planned class excursions to local venues, can be instrumental in bringing microbes to life for children and, collaterally, their families. In order to encourage the embedding of microbiology-centric class excursions in current curricula, we suggest and illustrate here some possibilities relating to the topics of food (a favourite pre-occupation of most children), agriculture (together with horticulture and aquaculture), health and medicine, the environment and biotechnology. And, although not all of the microbially relevant infrastructure will be within reach of schools, there is usually access to a market, local food store, wastewater treatment plant, farm, surface water body, etc., all of which can provide opportunities to explore microbiology in action. If children sometimes consider the present to be mundane, even boring, they are usually excited with both the past and the future so, where possible, visits to local museums (the past) and research institutions advancing knowledge frontiers (the future) are strongly recommended, as is a tapping into the natural enthusiasm of local researchers to leverage the educational value of excursions and virtual excursions. Children are also fascinated by the unknown, so, paradoxically, the invisibility of microbes makes them especially fascinating objects for visualization and exploration. In outlining some of the options for microbiology excursions, providing suggestions for discussion topics and considering their educational value, we strive to extend the vistas of current class excursions and to: (i) inspire teachers and school managers to incorporate more microbiology excursions into curricula; (ii) encourage microbiologists to support school excursions and generally get involved in bringing microbes to life for children; (iii) urge leaders of organizations (biopharma, food industries, universities, etc.) to give school outreach activities a more prominent place in their mission portfolios, and (iv) convey to policymakers the benefits of providing schools with funds, materials and flexibility for educational endeavours beyond the classroom.

negative: Decision-making on management of ms and nmosd patients during the COVID-19 pandemic: A latin american survey BACKGROUND: The emergence of COVID-19 and its vertiginous spreading speed represents a unique challenge to neurologists managing multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD). The need for data on the impact of the virus on these patients grows rapidly. There is an urgent necessity of sharing information to enable evidence-based decision making on the clinical management. There are no data on what physicians are doing on clinical practice in Latin American countries. AIM: to investigate current management opinion of Latin American MS and/or NMOSD expert neurologists based on their experience and recommendations. METHODS: we developed a voluntary web-based survey based on hypothetical situations that these patients may encounter, while taking into account the potential risk of developing severe COVID-19 infection. RESULTS: 60% of the experts had the possibility of monitoring their patients by telemedicine. Most neurologists postpone magnetic resonance. Laboratory blood tests delay is associated with the type of treatment. Platform therapies, dimethyl-fumarate and natalizumab are considered safe options to initiate in naive patients. CONCLUSION: decision-making about MS and NMOSD patients has become even more complex in order to adapt to the COVID-19 pandemic. Risks and benefits should be taken into consideration throughout the patient follow-up.

negative: Influence of trust in the spreading of information The understanding and prediction of information diffusion processes on networks is a major challenge in network theory with many implications in social sciences. Many theoretical advances occurred due to stochastic spreading models. Nevertheless, these stochastic models overlooked the influence of rational decisions on the outcome of the process. For instance, different levels of trust in acquaintances do play a role in information spreading, and actors may change their spreading decisions during the information diffusion process accordingly. Here, we study an information-spreading model in which the decision to transmit or not is based on trust. We explore the interplay between the propagation of information and the trust dynamics happening on a two-layer multiplex network. Actors' trustable or untrustable states are defined as accumulated cooperation or defection behaviors, respectively, in a Prisoner's Dilemma setup, and they are controlled by a memory span. The propagation of information is abstracted as a threshold model on the information-spreading layer, where the threshold depends on the trustability of agents. The analysis of the model is performed using a tree approximation and validated on homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. The results show that the memory of previous actions has a significant effect on the spreading of information. For example, the less memory that is considered, the higher is the diffusion. Information is highly promoted by the emergence of trustable acquaintances. These results provide insight into the effect of plausible biases on spreading dynamics in a multilevel networked system.

negative: Paramedic intubation during a pandemic: Where are the consensus guidelines? There is no denying that paramedic-led intubation is a contentious issue in out-of-hospital care. Guidelines for the management of COVID-19 are developed with both patient-centred care as well as provider safety in mind, with intubation the preferred airway management strategy in patients suspected to have contracted COVID-19 requiring airway protection or invasive ventilation. However, this has re-ignited a debate which began during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in the early 2000s around whether the benefit of paramedic-led intubation outweighs the risks to providers during a pandemic. The aim of this commentary is to revisit the evidence around paramedic-led intubation and provide a perspective on paramedic-led intubation during the COVID-19 pandemic. It is hoped this will stimulate further discussion around the benefits and risks of paramedic intubation in the setting of a pandemic.

negative: Estimating the Risks from COVID-19 Infection in Adult Chemotherapy Patients The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) novel coronavirus represents a significant health risk, particularly in older patients. Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in most rich countries, and delivering chemotherapy may be associated with increased risk in the presence of a pandemic infection. Estimating this risk is crucial in making decisions about balancing risks and benefits from administering chemotherapy. However, there are no specific data about chemotherapy risks per se. Here we develop a simple model to estimate the potential harms in patients undergoing chemotherapy during a COVID outbreak. We use age-related case fatality rates as a basis for estimating risk, and use previous data from risk of death during influenza outbreaks to estimate the additional risk associated with chemotherapy. We use data from randomised trials to estimate benefit across a range of curative and palliative settings, and address the balance of benefit against the risk of harm. We then use those data to estimate the impact on national chemotherapy delivery patterns.

negative: ‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19 Virologist Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, fell ill with COVID-19 in mid-March He spent a week in a hospital and has been recovering at his home in London since Climbing a flight of stairs still leaves him breathless Piot, who grew up in Belgium, was one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus in 1976 and spent his career fighting infectious diseases He headed the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2008 and is currently a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen But his personal confrontation with the new coronavirus was a life-changing experience, Piot says

negative: Impact of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on health professionals OBJECTIVE: Recognizing the huge potential ramifications of COVID-19 pandemic, this study explores its impact on health professionals personally and professionally along with the associated challenges. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional qualitative survey was conducted from March-April 2020. Participants included health professionals from various disciplines in both public and private-sector institutions of Pakistan. The sample size was not predetermined, and an iterative approach of simultaneous data collection and analysis was taken until data and time saturation were reached. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data was carried out by two analysts. RESULTS: Two hundred and Ninety health professionals responded. They reported an impact on their mental, physical and social well-being. The clinicians mentioned facing an unprecedented workload in overstretched health facilities, while those in academia become engaged with planning/providing emergency remote teaching for the students affecting work-life balance. Some challenges associated with work-from-home and in the hospitals were identified. CONCLUSION: During COVID-19, the health professionals are anxious, overworked and financially unstable while planning, creating and caring for others and their families. We need to support them to do their jobs, be safe and stay alive. Future research should explore the fears and coping strategies of health professionals during pandemics.

negative: COVID-19 pandemic and therapy with ibuprofen or renin-angiotensin system blockers: no need for interruptions or changes in ongoing chronic treatments Scientists hypothesized that drugs such as ibuprofen or renin-angiotensin system (RAS) blockers could exacerbate the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 by upregulating the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which serves as an entry receptor for the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. This hypothesis was taken up by the lay press and led to concerns among doctors and patients whether the use of these drugs was still safe and justified against the background of the pandemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 with an increasing number of cases and deaths. In this article, we summarize what is known about the effect of RAS blockers or non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on the course of COVID-19 disease. In the case of RAS inhibition, we also find evidence for the opposite hypothesis, namely, that RAS inhibition in COVID-19 could be protective. In view of the inconsistent and limited evidence and after weighing up the benefits and risks, we would not currently recommend discontinuing or switching an effective treatment with RAS blockers. NSAIDs should be used at the lowest effective dose for the shortest possible period. The choice of drug to treat COVID-19-associated fever or pain should be based on a benefit-risk assessment for known side effects (e.g., kidney damage, gastrointestinal ulceration).

negative: Interaction between the learners’ initial grasp of the object of learning and the learning resource afforded Two studies are reported in this paper. The object of learning in both is the economic principle of changes in price as a function of changes in the relative magnitude of changes in demand and supply. The patterns of variation and invariance, defining the conditions compared were built into pedagogical tools (text, graphs, and worksheets). The first study is the latest in a series of studies aiming to test the fundamental conjecture of the Variation Theory of Learning that new meanings are acquired from experiencing differences against a background of sameness, rather than experiencing sameness against a background of differences. The study compares the learning outcomes under conditions consistent with the basic conjecture with the learning outcomes under conditions not consistent with the theory. The results support the conjecture. The second study shows, however, that the conditions that are consistent with the theory cannot be decided unless the learners’ pre-requisites for the task in question are taken into consideration. One set of the pedagogical tools was found to be highly effective for learners with a better initial grasp of the object of learning, while another set was found to be equally effective for learners with a weaker initial grasp of the object of learning. The two sets were equally ineffective when used for the “wrong” group of learners.

negative: Food Insecurity and Health: Practices and Policies to Address Food Insecurity among Children

negative: Social preparedness in response to spatial distancing measures for aged care during COVID-19

negative: Protecting American Lungs and Reversing Youth Tobacco Epidemic Act. Annually, the National Association of School Nurses (NASN) sets advocacy goals. The goals include legislative and policy priorities. This article sets forth current NASN legislative priorities and results of advocacy that benefits students. The NASN Board of Directors are instrumental in moving policy priorities forward. In addition, this article shares NASN advocacy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

negative: COVID-19 and Headache Medicine: A Narrative Review of Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug (NSAID) and Corticosteroid Use. OBJECTIVE To summarize the current literature on non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug and corticosteroid use during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, recognizing that these are commonly used treatments in the field of headache medicine. BACKGROUND The use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and corticosteroids in patients during the COVID-19 pandemic has been a controversial topic within the medical community and international and national health organizations. Lay press and social media outlets have circulated opinions on this topic despite the fact that the evidence for or against the use of these medications is sparse. In the field of headache medicine, these medications are used commonly and both patients and clinicians may have questions or hesitations pertaining to their use during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS A detailed search of the scientific and popular literature was performed. RESULTS There is limited literature pertaining to the safety of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and corticosteroids during the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, there are no clear scientific data that preclude the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in the general population who may acquire COVID-19 or in those acutely infected with the virus. Several health organizations have concluded that treatment with corticosteroids during active infection should be avoided due to concerns of prolonged viral shedding in the respiratory tract and the lack of survival benefit based on the data from past coronaviruses and influenza virus; specific exceptions exist including treatment for underlying asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, septic shock, and acute respiratory distress syndrome. CONCLUSION Scientific information regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is constantly evolving, and limited or contradictory information can lead to confusion for both patients and clinicians. It is recommended that prior to prescribing non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and steroids for the treatment of headache, clinicians have open discussions with their patients about the potential risks and benefits of using these medications during the COVID-19 pandemic. This manuscript summarizes the currently available evidence and understanding about these risks and benefits to help clinicians navigate such discussions.

negative: Clinical trials and the COVID-19 pandemic "...but why think? Why not try the experiment?..." John Hunter (1728-1793), in a letter to Edward Jenner. August 2nd, 1775. When Galen of Pergamum (2nd c. A.D.), physician, philosopher and experimentalist, sought to ascertain the therapeutic properties of Theriac, an antidote of repute against poisons, he resorted to an experiment. Theriac or Theriaca was a compound drug, containing in some versions used in antiquity numerous components; Galen's own composition included over 70 ingredients! One of its uses was as an antidote against snakebites, a frequent peril for the Roman armies marching on in sandals. Galen spent most of his life in Rome and was elevated to Imperial Physician at the court of Marcus Aurelius, who apparently took daily doses of Theriac, which among other components included opium. Describing the experiment to his friend Pison, Galen wrote, "as I could not possibly conduct a trial on humans, I experimented on roosters" For his experiment, Galen, studied two groups of roosters, but he doesn't tell us how many animals he included in each category. Both groups were exposed to poisonous snakebites. All roosters who were fed with theriac prior to exposure to viper bites survived, whereas in the second group that had not received prophylactic Theriac, all roosters died. Not only is Galen's methodology remarkable, preceding the modern randomised trial by eighteen centuries, but more importantly, it is notable for his ethical stance at a time when sensitivities about human rights, prevalent in our times, were largely absent in societies of widespread slavery. For example, Mithridates VI (132-63 BC), the King of Pontus who is credited with the first use of Theriac, tested its efficacy on criminals and slaves. For his experiment Galen used the random allocation of treatment, today's prospective randomised clinical trial, implemented in the evaluation of novel therapies, widely used internationally, particularly in cancer research! This experimental method used for ascertaining the efficacy of new drugs became established after the second half of the 20th century and is now firmly entrenched as a research tool. On the other hand, the retrieval of information from observational studies or non-randomised series is considered scientifically inferior and is often dismissed or ignored as irrelevant or anecdotal. Such is the compulsion for the randomised study that in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, respected physicians and scientists appeared in the media hesitant to recommend the use of protective facial masks, as there was no evidence of benefit for their use from prospective randomised studies in the general population! Logic had no place in the argument! COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 new corona virus, brought to the fore the randomised trial, as well as, the ethical dilemmas that surround the allocation of treatment at random, in the face of a devastating pandemic. Anthony Fauci, distinguished infectious diseases expert and an adviser to the President of the USA, at a recent briefing from the Situation Room of the White House, endorsed categorically and unreservedly the randomised trial for the evaluation of drugs potentially effective against SARS-CoV-2, in patients afflicted with COVID-19. A few days later on April 8th, 2020, Professor Sotiris Tsiodras, scientific advisor to the Greek Government for COVID-19 and an expert on infectious diseases, when asked by a journalist about chloroquine, he responded, "Antony Fauci is correct. Nevertheless, we give the drug to everyone, that is, not half of the patients will receive it, and the other half will not". If we accept that the randomised trial represents the unique, impregnable method of evaluating new treatments-several clinicians dispute this dogma. -the question arises how will treatments be allocated to patients? According to the Declaration of Helsinki participation of a subject in a clinical trial requires their explicit written consent. Will, a potentially hypoxic patient rapidly deteriorating, be able to understand what is being asked of them, and will that patient be in a position to provide consent? And if that patient refuses to be randomised, what are the options? Is it his/her right to request the active treatment that a fellow patient is receiving in the next bed? Although the Declaration of Helsinki allows the option of no treatment or even placebo, where no known treatment is available for a certain condition, such as COVID-19, it also emphasizes that "while the primary purpose of medical research is to generate new knowledge, this goal can never take precedence over the rights and interests of individual research subjects". Consider now the physicians and nurses on the first line of the battle against the pandemic; to the enormous pressures and risks that they experience daily, they may have to endure the added psychological burden of the randomised trial, knowing that half of their patients are receiving the promising drug, whilst the other half are denied the chance of potential benefit. When during the Medical Research Council's randomized trial of streptomycin, one senior physician contracted tuberculosis, the Medical Research Council obtained supplies for him outside the trial. In this brief instance of medical history, the equipoise, the scientific imperative, all arguments and other justifications for providing treatment at random, were thrown out of the window in favour of the human factor! Why is randomization necessary? Because-it is presumed-the process of randomising subjects, protects the study from the selective inclusion of patients with favourable characteristics, thus inadvertently allowing or facilitating a falsely favourable result for the drug or treatment under investigation. However, the process of randomising patients does not necessarily result in the randomisation of the characteristics of their disease. Exactly because of this, at the end of a randomised study, even if the prognostic variables are evenly represented and balanced in the strata, further confirmation of the result is sought with a statistical multifactorial analysis. Such multifactorial analyses can also be applied to a non-randomised group of patients engaged in the trial of a new drug. Since the middle of the 20th century a generation of physicians have been trained to dismiss, or are incapable of evaluating the validity of a treatment beyond the established etiquette of the randomised study. This, some have argued, constitutes intellectual indolence, it is not scientific robustness. Pandits foresee that the world will be different after the end of this pandemic. Perhaps human ingenuity will seek new investigative methods that will render the randomised clinical trial obsolete, both, on methodological and ethical grounds. Until then and even if we have to accept the scientific supremacy of the randomised study in the evaluation of novel therapies, the ethical considerations in the unprecedented circumstances of a relentless pandemic demand a more humane approach, befitting the beneficent precepts of the Hippocratic tradition.

negative: The smallpox threat: the school nurse's role. Today, with the threat of bioterrorism and war, there is a new dimension to the traditional role of the school nurse. The smallpox threat to public health will invoke the school nurse's role as an educator, liaison, and consultant in the community. This article discusses smallpox, the vaccination process, adverse effects, and postvaccination care. In addition to the role of educator, the school nurse has the role of a liaison between the school and the local health department. The school nurse also plays a vital role in school health policy development and implementation. Being prepared and educated makes our nation less vulnerable to these threats and will assist in keeping our children and communities safe.

negative: COVID-19: An Early Review of Its Global Impact and Considerations for Parkinson’s Disease Patient Care While many infectious disorders are unknown to most neurologists, COVID-19 is very different. It has impacted neurologists and other health care workers, not only in our professional lives but also through the fear and panic within our own families, colleagues, patients and their families, and even in the wider public. COVID-19 affects all sorts of individuals, but the elderly with underlying chronic conditions are particularly at risk of severe disease, or even death. Parkinson’s disease (PD) shares a common profile as an age-dependent degenerative disorder, frequently associated with comorbidities, particularly cardiovascular diseases, so PD patients will almost certainly fall into the high-risk group. Therefore, the aim of this review is to explore the risk of COVID-19 in PD based on the susceptibility to severe disease, its impact on PD disease severity, potential long-term sequelae, and difficulties of PD management during this outbreak, where neurologists face various challenges on how we can maintain effective care for PD patients without exposing them, or ourselves, to the risk of infection. It is less than six months since the identification of the original COVID-19 case on New Year’s Eve 2019, so it is still too early to fully understand the natural history of COVID-19 and the evidence on COVID-19-related PD is scant. Though the possibilities presented are speculative, they are theory-based, and supported by prior evidence from other neurotrophic viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2. Neurologists should be on high alert and vigilant for potential acute and chronic complications when encountering PD patients who are suspected of having COVID-19.

negative: Current Evidence for Minimally Invasive Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Risk Mitigation Strategies: A Narrative Review OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to review the literature surrounding the risks of viral transmission during laparoscopic surgery and propose mitigation measures to address these risks. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused surgeons the world over to re-evaluate their approach to surgical procedures given concerns over the risk of aerosolization of viral particles and exposure of operating room staff to infection. International society guidelines advise against the use of laparoscopy; however, the evidence on this topic is scant and recommendations are based on the perceived most cautious course of action. METHODS: We conducted a narrative review of the existing literature surrounding the risks of viral transmission during laparoscopic surgery and balance these risks against the benefits of minimally invasive approaches. We also propose mitigation measures to address these risks that we have adopted in our institution. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: While it is currently assumed that open surgery minimizes operating room staff exposure to the virus, our findings reveal that this may not be the case. A well-informed, evidence-based opinion is critical when making decisions regarding which operative approach to pursue, for the safety and well-being of the patient, the operating room staff, and the healthcare system at large. Minimally invasive surgical approaches offer significant advantages with respect to both patient care, and the mitigation of the risk of viral transmission during surgery, provided the appropriate equipment and expertise are present.

negative: Comprehensive sexuality education to address gender-based violence

negative: School Closure to Reduce Influenza Transmission

negative: Precautions and Procedures for Coronary and Structural Cardiac Interventions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Guidance from Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology The globe is currently in the midst of a COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. This pandemic has placed considerable stress on health care resources and providers. This document from the Canadian Association of Interventional Cardiology- Association Canadienne de Cardiologie d'intervention, specifically addresses the implications for the care of patients in the cardiac catheterization laboratory (CCL) in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. The key principles of this document are to maintain essential interventional cardiovascular care while minimizing risks of COVID-19 to patients and staff and maintaining the overall health care resources. As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, procedures will be increased or reduced based on the current level of restriction to health care services. Although some consistency across the country is desirable, provincial and regional considerations will influence how these recommendations are implemented. We believe the framework and recommendations in this document will provide crucial guidance for clinicians and policy makers on the management of coronary and structural procedures in the CCL as the COVID-19 pandemic escalates and eventually abates.

negative: Non‐Contagious, Second COVID‐19 Infection: Implications for Organ Donation Eligibility As of May 19, 2020, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) shared evidence indicating an inability for COVID‐19 patients having contracted a second infection to spread the virus. Viral samples from re‐infected patients could not be grown in culture, a sign of dead virus particles, attributable to neutralizing antibodies. Accordingly, a negative COVID‐19 test may no longer be mandated for returning to school or work, or even donating organs. The transplant community should consider lifting donation constraints on patients testing positive for a second COVID‐19 infection.

negative: COVID-19 and maternal mental health: Are we getting the balance right? This paper presents a rapid evidence review into the clinical and psychological impacts of COVID-19 on perinatal women and their infants. Literature search revealed that there is very little formal evidence on the impact of COVID-19 on pregnant, labouring and postnatal women or their babies. The clinical evidence to date suggests that pregnant and childbearing women, and their babies are not at increased risk of either getting infected, or of having severe symptoms or consequences than the population as a whole. There is no evidence on the short- and longer-term psychological impacts of restrictive practices or social and personal constraints for childbearing women during COVID-19 in particular, or infection pandemics in general. The potential for adverse mental health consequences of the pandemic should be recognised as a critical public health concern, together with appropriate care and support to prevent and ameliorate any negative impacts.

negative: Disparities in Vulnerability to Severe Complications from COVID-19 in the United States This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of vulnerability to severe complications from COVID-19 overall and across race-ethnicity and socioeconomic status. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the prevalence of specific health conditions associated with complications from COVID-19 and to calculate, for each individual, an index of the risk of severe complications from respiratory infections developed by DeCaprio et al. (2020). We show large disparities across race-ethnicity and socioeconomic status in the prevalence of conditions, including hypertension, which are associated with the risk of severe complications from COVID-19. Moreover, we show that these disparities emerge early in life, prior to age 65, leading to higher vulnerability to such complications. Our results suggest particular attention should be paid to the risk of adverse outcomes in midlife for non-Hispanic blacks, adults with a high school degree or less, and low-income Americans.

negative: Impacts of school feeding on educational and health outcomes of school-age children and adolescents in low- and middle-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis. BACKGROUND School feeding programs are beneficial for the physical, mental, and psychosocial development of school-age children and adolescents, particularly those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). While school feeding programs are ubiquitous in LMICs, the specific benefits of school feeding programs are unclear. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to evaluate the impacts of school feeding programs on the educational and health outcomes of children and adolescents in LMICs. METHODS Rigorously designed interventional studies on the impacts of school feeding on nutritional and health outcomes of children and adolescents receiving primary or secondary education in LMICs will be included. The following information sources were used to identify relevant published or unpublished studies: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library, and governmental or organizational websites. The risk of bias of randomized and non-randomized studies will be assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and the ROBINS-I tool, respectively. Two reviewers will independently conduct the selection of studies, data extraction, and assessment of the risk of bias. A narrative synthesis of all the included studies will be provided. Meta-analyses will be performed whenever appropriate. Heterogeneity of effects will be assessed by I2, subgroup analyses, and meta-regression. The certainty of evidence for each outcome will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach. DISCUSSION The design and implementation of school feeding programs in LMICs should be based on the understanding of the benefits of such programs. This work will provide a crucial evidence base for the educational and health benefits of school feeding on children and adolescents in LMICs. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION This protocol was submitted for registration with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) on November 18, 2019 (registration number: pending).

negative: Hydroxychloroquine for Coronavirus: The Urgent Need for a Moratorium on Prescriptions

negative: Management of COVID-19: the risks associated with treatment are clear, but the benefits remain uncertain Even though the early reports from China provided advance warning of what was to come, the COVID-19 pandemic has spread throughout the world with devastating consequences. Emergency measures are being implemented to reduce the magnitude of the public health crisis, prevent healthcare facilities from becoming overwhelmed and reduce the death toll of the disease. Containment strategies to mitigate viral transmission and emergency measures to increase the capacity of each country to provide intensive care are at the forefront of the public health management of the epidemic, even though the detrimental social and psychological effects of quarantine are evident on a global scale. Optimal management of critically ill patients with COVID-19 is also unclear, and the initial suggestion for early intubation as in typical ARDS may have caused significant harm. The management of mild cases of confirmed infection is another point of controversy, as drugs which may be repurposed for COVID-19 treatment have significant, potentially irreversible toxic effects and their use in mild cases of a viral illness which is typically self-limited may be harmful.

negative: COVID‐19 and the Gender Gap in Work Hours School and daycare closures due to the COVID‐19 pandemic have increased caregiving responsibilities for working parents. As a result, many have changed their work hours to meet these growing demands. In this study, we use panel data from the U.S. Current Population Survey to examine changes in mothers’ and fathers’ work hours from February through April, 2020, the period of time prior to the widespread COVID‐19 outbreak in the U.S. and through its first peak. Using person‐level fixed effects models, we find that mothers with young children have reduced their work hours four to five times more than fathers. Consequently, the gender gap in work hours has grown by 20 to 50 percent. These findings indicate yet another negative consequence of the COVID‐19 pandemic, highlighting the challenges it poses to women's work hours and employment.

negative: Clinical Evaluation of the cobas SARS-CoV-2 Test and a Diagnostic Platform Switch during 48 Hours in the Midst of the COVID-19 Pandemic Laboratories are currently witnessing extraordinary demand globally for sampling devices, reagents, consumables, and diagnostic instruments needed for timely diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. To meet diagnostic needs as the pandemic grows, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recently granted several commercial SARS-CoV-2 tests Emergency Use Authorization (EUA), but manufacturer-independent evaluation data are scarce. We performed the first manufacturer-independent evaluation of the fully automated sample-to-result two-target test cobas 6800 SARS-CoV-2 (cobas) (Roche Molecular Systems, Branchburg, NJ), which received U.S. FDA EUA on 12 March 2020. The comparator was a standardized 3-h SARS-CoV-2 protocol, consisting of RNA extraction using an automated portable instrument, followed by a two-target reverse transcription real-time PCR (RT-PCR), which our laboratory has routinely used since January 2020 [V. M. Corman, O. Landt, M. Kaiser, R. Molenkamp, et al., Euro Surveill 25(3):pii=2000045, 2020, https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.3.2000045]. cobas and the comparator showed overall agreement of 98.1% and a kappa value of 0.95 on an in-house validation panel consisting of 217 well-characterized retrospective samples. Immediate prospective head-to-head comparative evaluation followed on 502 samples, and the diagnostic approaches showed overall agreement of 99.6% and a kappa value of 0.98. A good correlation (r(2) = 0.96) between cycle threshold values for SARS-CoV-2-specific targets obtained by cobas and the comparator was observed. Our results showed that cobas is a reliable assay for qualitative detection of SARS-CoV-2 in nasopharyngeal swab samples collected in the Universal Transport Medium System (UTM-RT) (Copan, Brescia, Italy). Under the extraordinary circumstances that laboratories are facing worldwide, a safe diagnostic platform switch is feasible in only 48 h and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic if carefully planned and executed.

negative: Original Article Highlights From This Issue

negative: Autocorrelation of the susceptible-infected-susceptible process on networks In this paper, we focus on the autocorrelation of the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) process on networks. The [Formula: see text]-intertwined mean-field approximation (NIMFA) is applied to calculate the autocorrelation properties of the exact SIS process. We derive the autocorrelation of the infection state of each node and the fraction of infected nodes both in the steady and transient states as functions of the infection probabilities of nodes. Moreover, we show that the autocorrelation can be used to estimate the infection and curing rates of the SIS process. The theoretical results are compared with the simulation of the exact SIS process. Our work fully utilizes the potential of the mean-field method and shows that NIMFA can indeed capture the autocorrelation properties of the exact SIS process.

negative: Short and long term impacts of COVID-19 on the pharmaceutical sector BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was characterized as a global pandemic by the WHO on March 11th, 2020. This pandemic had major effects on the health market, the pharmaceutical sector, and was associated with considerable impacts; which may appear in short and long-term time-horizon and need identification and appropriate planning to reduce their socio-economic burden. OBJECTIVES: Current short communication study assessed pharmaceutical market crisis during the COVID-19 era; discussing short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic on the pharmaceutical sector. RESULTS: Short-term impacts of COVID-19 pandemic includes demand changes, regulation revisions, research and development process changes and the shift towards tele-communication and tele-medicine. In addition, industry growth slow-down, approval delays, moving towards self-sufficiency in pharm-production supply chain and trend changes in consumption of health-market products along with ethical dilemma could be anticipated as long-term impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on pharmaceutical sector in both global and local levels. CONCLUSION: The pandemic of COVID-19 poses considerable crisis on the health markets, including the pharmaceutical sector; and identification of these effects, may guide policy-makers towards more evidence-informed planning to overcome accompanying challenges. [Figure: see text]

negative: Ensuring Equitable Access to School Meals

negative: SARS – a perspective from a school of nursing in Hong Kong Background. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a new infectious disease with significant morbidity and mortality that has had a major impact on health and health care services worldwide. Hong Kong has had a significant number of cases and deaths. Nurses, at the vanguard of the clinical health care team, have been particularly affected by it. The outbreak prompted the health authorities to implement a series of public health measures and hospital policies, including a guideline for the diagnosis and management of patients with SARS. Aims and objectives. This paper aims at providing an overview of what is known about SARS and the impact it has had in Hong Kong and to highlight from the perspective of a school of nursing the major clinical, educational and public health implications. Conclusions. The lack of understanding and uncertainty about the disease led to significant variation in the provision of information, contributing to the confusion and anxiety in the community. Therefore, there is a need to revise the nursing curriculum, to provide continuing education to all health care professionals, particularly with regard to infection control measures, and to revisit the range of public health policies to ensure the health of the community is protected by these policies. There also has been a reaffirmation of the importance of health promotion that highlights the importance of the partnership between nurses, health policy makers and public health personnel. It is evident that the organization and delivery of clinical practice, teaching and health promotion have to be flexible and responsive to a changing health scenario. Relevance to clinical practice. Nurses must play a crucial role in the prevention, detection and containment of SARS. They will need to implement and ensure strict adherence to infection control measures and, in some circumstances, isolation and quarantine may be warranted. Attention to the psychological state of patients and family members should not be overlooked. Paramount is education of patients, families and members of the public at large.

negative: Reaching the Hispanic Community About COVID-19 Through Existing Chronic Disease Prevention Programs Publicly available data on racial and ethnic disparities related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are now surfacing, and these data suggest that the novel virus has disproportionately sickened Hispanic communities in the United States. We discuss why Hispanic communities are highly vulnerable to COVID-19 and how adaptations were made to existing infrastructure for Penn State Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes) and Better Together REACH (a community–academic coalition using grant funds from Racial and Ethnic Approaches to Community Health) to address these needs. We also describe programming to support COVID-19 efforts for Hispanic communities by using chronic disease prevention programs and opportunities for replication across the country.

negative: Drinking no-links to the severity of COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

negative: COVID-19: What are the risks in hypertensive patients? Considering the number of patients affected by SARS-CoV-2, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic on 11 March 2020. A number of publications regarding the course of COVID-19 infection and its relation to comorbidities have appeared since December 2019, when the first cases of atypical pneumonia were diagnosed in China. There is evidence of the higher susceptibility and higher risk of unfavourable outcomes in comorbid patients, including those with hypertension. We summarize the available data on the association with the COVID-19 infection and arterial hypertension, and discuss potential risks, e. g. the risks and benefits of antihypertensive therapy (in particular, related to the blockers of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system) and the management approaches.

negative: Age Matters: COVID-19 Prevalence in a Vaping Adolescent Population - An Observational Study Background: Currently, there is limited or no data demonstrating that vaping is associated with increased transmission or prevalence of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Our study aims to investigate the relationship of vaping with the prevalence of COVID-19 infection across the United States and in the District of Columbia. Methods: COVID-19 case counts by state and the District of Columbia were obtained via the Worldometers website on 04/30/2020. Prevalence of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents were calculated using estimated 2019 population data from the US Census Department. Age ranges analyzed were: high school age children, Ages 18-24, Ages 25-44, and Ages 45-65. Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to determine if the rate of vaping was correlated with a higher prevalence of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population. Findings: The Spearman correlation analysis demonstrated that persons vaping between 18 years and 24 years of age had a correlation coefficient of 0.278 with prevalence of COVID-19 infection (p=0.048). Vaping high school students had a correlation coefficient of 0.153 with prevalence of COVID-19 (p=0.328). Persons vaping in the age group 25-45 years had a correlation coefficient of 0.101 in association to COVID-19 prevalence (p=0.478). And finally, persons vaping between the age 45-65 years old had a correlation coefficient 0.130 with respect to COVID-19 prevalence (p=0.364). Interpretation: Increased COVID-19 prevalence is associated with vaping in the adolescent population between ages 18 and 24. Further prospective studies need to be performed in order investigate the severity of outcomes of vaping in association with COVID-19 infection. Funding: Nothing to disclose.

negative: COVID-19 pandemic and mitigation strategies: implications for maternal and child health and nutrition Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to ravage health and economic metrics globally, including progress in maternal and child nutrition. Although there has been focus on rising rates of childhood wasting in the short term, maternal and child undernutrition rates are also likely to increase as a consequence of COVID-19 and its impacts on poverty, coverage of essential interventions, and access to appropriate nutritious foods. Key sectors at particular risk of collapse or reduced efficiency in the wake of COVID-19 include food systems, incomes, and social protection, health care services for women and children, and services and access to clean water and sanitation. This review highlights key areas of concern for maternal and child nutrition during and in the aftermath of COVID-19 while providing strategic guidance for countries in their efforts to reduce maternal and child undernutrition. Rooted in learnings from the exemplars in Global Health's Stunting Reduction Exemplars project, we provide a set of recommendations that span investments in sectors that have sustained direct and indirect impact on nutrition. These include interventions to strengthen the food-supply chain and reducing food insecurity to assist those at immediate risk of food shortages. Other strategies could include targeted social safety net programs, payment deferrals, or tax breaks as well as suitable cash-support programs for the most vulnerable. Targeting the most marginalized households in rural populations and urban slums could be achieved through deploying community health workers and supporting women and community members. Community-led sanitation programs could be key to ensuring healthy household environments and reducing undernutrition. Additionally, several COVID-19 response measures such as contact tracing and self-isolation could also be exploited for nutrition protection. Global health and improvements in undernutrition will require governments, donors, and development partners to restrategize and reprioritize investments for the COVID-19 era, and will necessitate data-driven decision making, political will and commitment, and international unity.

negative: Ramping up Delivery of Cardiac Surgery During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Guidance Statement from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons COVID-19 Task Force Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound global impact. Its rapid transmissibility has transformed healthcare delivery and forced countries to adopt strict measures to contain its spread. The vast majority of U.S. cardiac surgical programs have deferred all but truly emergent/urgent operative procedures in an effort to reduce the burden on the healthcare system and to mobilize resources to combat the pandemic surge. While the number of COVID-19 cases continues to increase worldwide, the incidence of new cases has begun to decline in many North American cities. This “flattening of the curve” has prompted interest in re-opening the economy, relaxing public health restrictions, and resuming non-urgent health care delivery.

negative: The impact of COVID-19 on mental health in the Hispanic Caribbean region

negative: Corticosteroid Guidance for Pregnancy during COVID-19 Pandemic The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is causing a necessary, rapid adjustment within the field of obstetrics. Corticosteroid use is a mainstay of therapy for those women delivering prematurely. Unfortunately, corticosteroid use has been associated with worse outcomes in COVID-19 positive patients. Given this information, it is necessary that obstetricians adjust practice to carefully weigh the fetal benefits with maternal risks. Therefore, our institution has examined the risks and benefits and altered our corticosteroid recommendations. Key Points: Corticosteroid use is an important part of prematurity treatment because it provides benefit to the fetus. Corticosteroid use may be related with increased morbidity and mortality in novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, during the COVID-19 pandemic, an alteration in current corticosteroid practices is necessary to uniquely weigh the maternal risks and fetal benefits.

negative: The role of non-formal education in combating the HIV epidemic in the Philippines and Taiwan The Philippines is experiencing a low but slowly growing prevalence of HIV, with a UN estimate of 6,000–11,000 cases out of a population of 91 million, and a 150% increase in new cases in 2008 compared to previous years. Earlier education programmes employed non-formal educational training techniques in the southern Philippines to target high-risk groups such as female sex workers and their establishment managers; the effort was expanded to target males in the community. In comparison, as of 2009, Taiwan has an estimated 40,000 cases of HIV/AIDS in a population of 23 million. It experienced a major increase in HIV infection among injecting drug users, from 77 newly reported cases in 2003 to 2,381 such cases in 2007. This article compares and contrasts the response to the epidemic in each country, describing non-formal educational programmes targeted and tailored to specific high-risk populations.

negative: Antihyperglycemic properties of hydroxychloroquine in patients with diabetes: Risks and benefits at the time of COVID-19 pandemic The antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) has long been used as a disease-modifying antirheumatic drug for the treatment of several inflammatory rheumatic diseases. Over the last three decades, various studies have shown that HCQ also plays a role in the regulation of glucose homeostasis. Although the mechanisms of action underlying the glucose-lowering properties of HCQ are still not entirely clear, evidence suggests that this drug may exert multifaceted effects on glucose regulation, including improvement of insulin sensitivity, increase of insulin secretion, reduction of hepatic insulin clearance, and reduction of systemic inflammation. Preliminary studies have shown the safety and efficacy of HCQ (at a dose ranging from 400 to 600 mg/day) in patients with type 2 diabetes over a short-term period. In 2014, HCQ has been approved in India as an add-on hypoglycemic agent for patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes. However, large randomized controlled trials are needed to establish the safety and efficacy profile of HCQ in patients with type 2 diabetes over a long-term period. With regard to the COVID-19 pandemic, several medications (including HCQ) have been used as off-label drugs because of the lack of proven effective therapies. However, emerging evidence shows limited benefit from HCQ use in COVID-19 in general. The aim of this manuscript is to comprehensively summarize the current knowledge on the antihyperglycemic properties of HCQ and to critically evaluate the potential risks and benefits related to HCQ use in patients with diabetes, even in light of the current pandemic scenario.

negative: Renin-Angiotensin System Blockade in COVID-19: Good, Bad, or Indifferent? [Figure: see text]

negative: An increasing risk of family violence during the Covid-19 pandemic: Strengthening community collaborations to save lives Abstract Though necessary to slow the spread of the novel Coronavirus (Covid-19), actions such as social-distancing, sheltering in-place, restricted travel, and closures of key community foundations are likely to dramatically increase the risk for family violence around the globe. In fact many countries are already indicating a dramatic increase in reported cases of domestic violence. While no clear precedent for the current crisis exists in academic literature, exploring the impact of natural disasters on family violence reports may provide important insight for family violence victim-serving professionals. Improving collaborations between human welfare and animal welfare agencies, expanding community partnerships, and informing the public of the great importance of reporting any concerns of abuse are all critical at this time.

negative: Costly Lessons From the 2015 Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Outbreak in Korea Since the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak in the Republic of Korea (hereafter Korea) began on May 11, 2015, a total of 186 persons have been infected by the MERS coronavirus, 38 of whom have died. With this number, Korea becomes second only to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the ranking of cumulative MERS cases. In this paper Korea’s unique experience of an outbreak of MERS will be summarized and discussed briefly.

negative: The effect of extended closure of red-light areas on COVID-19 transmission in India The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in over 200,000 cases in India. Thus far, India has implemented lockdown measures to curb disease transmission. However, commercial sex work in red-light areas (RLAs) has potential to lead to COVID-19 resurgence after lockdown. We developed a model of COVID-19 transmission in RLAs, evaluating the impact of extended RLA closure compared with RLA reopening on cases, hospitalizations, and mortality rates within the RLAs of five major Indian cities, within the cities, and across India. Closure lowered transmission at all scales. More than 90% of cumulative cases and deaths among RLA residents of Kolkata, Pune, and Nagpur could be averted by the time the epidemic would peak under a re-opening scenario. Across India, extended closure of RLAs would benefit the population at large, delaying the peak of COVID-19 cases by 8 to 23 days, and avert 32% to 60.2% of cumulative cases and 43% to 67.6% of cumulative deaths at the peak of the epidemic. Extended closure of RLAs until better prevention and treatment strategies are developed would benefit public health in India.

negative: A practical approach to the management of breast cancer in the COVID-19 era and beyond The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in a major shift in how breast services are being utilised and managed. The guidelines relating to this have been published by recognised medical associations from the UK, Europe and the USA, addressing many aspects of breast cancer care. There is an awareness that there may be limitations in resources during this time, and therefore, prioritisation strategies have been identified to ensure that breast cancer patients are appropriately treated, whilst reducing the risk of infection from COVID-19 to both patients and staff. Equally important is the consideration of how breast cancer services can be safely re-introduced, as infection rates from COVID-19 decline. However, until there is a definite management strategy for COVID-19, such as a vaccine being developed, it is likely that there will still be a significant impact from COVID-19 on breast cancer care. This paper, therefore, aims to highlight the current guidance and evidence regarding breast cancer management in the era of COVID-19, and also aims to look at future management strategies in this period of uncertainty.

negative: Online Gambling in the Midst of COVID-19: A Nexus of Mental Health Concerns, Substance Use and Financial Stress This study examined the emerging impact of COVID-19 on gambling during the first 6 weeks of emergency measures in Ontario, Canada. A cross-sectional online survey of 2005 gamblers, including a sub-sample of 1081 online gamblers (age 18 years and older), was administered to assess risky gambling behaviours and motivations, financial impacts from COVID-19, the influence of COVID-19 on online gambling, mental health concerns and substance use. A series of odds ratio comparisons and measures of association were carried out. Results show significant likelihood of online gambling among those classified as high-risk gamblers (according to the Problem Gambling Severity Index) and those with past experience of online gambling, though migration from land-based gambling was apparent. Among high-risk online gamblers, the most predictive risk factors included moderate and severe anxiety and depression, reduced work hours, being influenced to gamble due to COVID-19, gambling under the influence of cannabis or alcohol and risky gambling motives tied to mental health concerns, including gambling because it helps with nervousness and depression, chasing gambling losses and seeking to earn income. This study has confirmed many of the risk associations presented in emerging COVID-19-related studies and past research on global economic crisis relating to gambling risk, mental health concerns and substance use. However, unlike many past studies, the present paper takes note of all of these elements holistically and provides incremental clarity on online gambling risk factors during the pandemic, specifically.

negative: Prioritizing Physician Mental Health as COVID-19 Marches On.

negative: On the possibility of interrupting the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic based on the best available scientific evidence.

negative: Do COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory Beliefs Form a Monological Belief System? Along with criticisms of the U.S. government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the disruptions to home, work, and school life resulting from social distancing orders recommended by public health experts, as well as the uncertainty about how long the disruptions will be necessary and when (if ever) we will have a vaccine, have come COVID-19 conspiracy theories (CTs).

negative: Ethical dimensions of stigma and discrimination in Nepal during COVID-19 pandemic ABSTRACT COVID-19 pandemic has ultimately brought down the world in a status of standstill as a result of lockdown as one of the measures to combat the situation and to prevent cross transmission. On the other hand, it has raised issues like ethical obligation of medical doctors and other staff to attend COVID-19 patients without proper PPE and resources increasing the risk to the staff and their family. In addition, it has resulted in compromise of the services provided to the people like non-availability of medical services to chronic and non-urgent patients. Non-COVID-19 patients attending ‘Fever Clinic’ were harmed due to inappropriate management. Medical staff dealing with testing or working in hospitals, isolation wards or quarantine centres have been stigmatized as ‘possibly infected’ and even denied food and accommodation.

negative: Ethical implementation of 'immunity passports' during the COVID-19 pandemic A number of countries are planning the use of 'immunity passports' as a way to ease restrictive measures and allow infected and recovered people to return to work during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper brings together key scientific uncertainties regarding the use of serological tests to assure immune status and a public health ethics perspective to inform key considerations in the ethical implementation of immunity passport policies. Ill-conceived policies have the potential to cause severe unintended harms that could result in greater inequity, the stigmatization of certain sectors of society, and heightened risks and unequal treatment of individuals due to erroneous test results. Immunity passports could however be used to achieve collective benefits and benefits for specific populations besides facilitating economic recovery. We conclude that sector-based policies that prioritize access to testing based on societal need are likely to be fairer and logistically more feasible, while minimizing stigma and reducing incentives for fraud. Clear guidelines need to be set out for which sectors of society should be prioritized for testing, and rigorous mechanisms should be in place to validate test results and identify cases of re-infection.

negative: Remdesivir in Treatment of COVID-19: A Systematic Benefit–Risk Assessment INTRODUCTION: There is a need to identify effective, safe treatments for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) rapidly, given the current, ongoing pandemic. A systematic benefit–risk assessment was designed and conducted to examine the benefit–risk profile of remdesivir in COVID-19 patients compared with standard of care, placebo or other treatments. A key objective of this study was to provide a platform for a dynamic systematic benefit–risk evaluation, which starts with inevitably limited information (to meet the urgent unmet public health need worldwide), then update the benefit–risk evaluation as more data become available. METHODS: The Benefit–Risk Action Team (BRAT) framework was used to assess the overall benefit–risk of the use of remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19 compared with standard of care, placebo or other treatments. We searched PubMed, Google Scholar and government agency websites to identify literature reporting clinical outcomes in patients taking remdesivir for COVID-19. A value tree was constructed and key benefits and risks were ranked by two clinicians in order of considered importance. RESULTS: Using the BRAT method, several key benefits and risks for use of remdesivir in COVID-19 compared with placebo have been identified. In one trial, the benefit of time to clinical improvement was not statistically significant (21 vs 23 days, HR 1.23, 95% CI 0.87–1.75), although the study was underpowered. In another trial, a shorter time to recovery in patients treated with remdesivir was observed (11 vs 15 days), with non-significant reduced mortality risk (8% vs 12%). Risk data were only available from one trial. This trial reported fewer serious adverse events in patients taking remdesivir (18%) compared with the placebo group (26%); however, more patients in the remdesivir group discontinued treatment as a result of an adverse event compared with those patients receiving placebo (12% vs 5%). CONCLUSIONS: Preliminary clinical trial results suggest that there may be a favourable benefit–risk profile for remdesivir compared with placebo in severe COVID-19 infection and further data on benefits would strengthen this evaluation. There is limited safety data for remdesivir, which should be obtained in further studies. The current framework summarises the key anticipated benefits and risks for which further data are needed. Ongoing clinical trial data can be incorporated into the framework when available to provide an updated benefit–risk assessment.

negative: Vaping during the COVID‐19 pandemic: NOT GOOD!!

negative: A Tour of the Basic Reproductive Number and the Next Generation of Researchers The Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Institute (MTBI) is a national award winning Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) that has been running every summer since 1996. Since 1997, students have developed and proposed their own research questions and derived their research projects from them as the keystone of the program. Because MTBI’s mentors have no control over what students are interested in, we need to introduce a suite of flexible techniques that can be applied to a broad variety of interests. In this paper, we walk through examples of some of the most popular techniques at MTBI: epidemiological or contagion modeling and reproductive number analysis. We include an overview of the next generation matrix method of finding the basic reproductive number, sensitivity analysis as a technique for investigating the effect of parameters on the reproductive number, and recommendations for interpreting the results. Lastly, we provide some advice to mentors who are looking to advise student-led research projects. All examples are taken from actual student projects that are generally available through the MTBI website.

negative: COVID-19 and the Urology Match: Perspectives and a Call to Action

negative: The scope of mental health research during the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on population mental health are unknown. We need to understand the scale of any such impact in different sections of the population, who is most affected and how best to mitigate, prevent and treat any excess morbidity. We propose a coordinated and interdisciplinary mental health science response.

negative: Behavioural change towards reduced intensity physical activity is disproportionately prevalent among adults with serious health issues or self-perception of high risk during the UK COVID-19 lockdown. Importance: There are growing concerns that the UK COVID-19 lockdown has reduced opportunities to maintain health through physical activity, placing individuals at higher risk of chronic disease and leaving them more vulnerable to severe sequelae of COVID-19. Objective: To examine whether the UK's lockdown measures have had disproportionate impacts on intensity of physical activity in groups who are, or who perceive themselves to be, at heightened risk from COVID-19. Designs, Setting, Participants: UK-wide survey of adults aged over 20, data collected between 2020-04-06 and 2020-04-22. Exposures: Self-reported doctor-diagnosed obesity, hypertension, type I/II diabetes, lung disease, cancer, stroke, heart disease. Self-reported disabilities and depression. Sex, gender, educational qualifications, household income, caring for school-age children. Narrative data on coping strategies. Main Outcomes and Measures: Change in physical activity intensity after implementation of UK COVID-19 lockdown (self-reported). Results: Most (60%) participants achieved the same level of intensity of physical activity during the lockdown as before the epidemic. Doing less intensive physical activity during the lockdown was associated with obesity (OR 1.21, 95% CI 1.02-1.41), hypertension (OR 1.52, 1.33-1.71), lung disease (OR 1.31,1.13-1.49), depression (OR 2.02, 1.82-2.22) and disability (OR 2.34, 1.99-2.69). Participants who reduced their physical activity intensity also had higher odds of being female, living alone or having no garden, and more commonly expressed sentiments about personal or household risks in narratives on coping. Conclusions and relevance: Groups who reduced physical activity intensity included disproportionate numbers of people with either heightened objective clinical risks or greater tendency to express subjective perceptions of risk. Policy on exercise for health during lockdowns should include strategies to facilitate health promoting levels of physical activity in vulnerable groups, including those with both objective and subjective risks.

negative: A Strategic Plan for Strengthening America’s Families: A Brief from the Coalition of Behavioral Science Organizations Despite significant progress in research on the treatment and prevention of psychological, behavioral, and health problems, the translation of this knowledge into population-wide benefit remains limited. This paper reviews the state of America’s children and families, highlighting the influence of stressful contextual and social conditions on child and family well-being and the concentration of disadvantage in numerous neighborhoods and communities throughout the nation. It then briefly reviews the progress that has been made in pinpointing policies that can reduce stressful contextual conditions such as poverty, discrimination, and the marketing of unhealthful foods and substances. It also describes numerous family and school interventions that have proven benefit in preventing psychological and behavioral problems as diverse as tobacco, alcohol, and other drug use; depression; antisocial behavior; academic failure; obesity prevention; and early childbearing. We argue that progress in translating existing knowledge into widespread benefit will require a nationwide effort to intervene comprehensively in neighborhoods and communities of concentrated disadvantage. We present a strategic plan for how such an effort could be organized. The first step in this organizing would be the creation of a broad and diverse coalition of organizations concerned with advancing public health and well-being. Such a coalition could increase public support both for the policies needed to focus on these disadvantaged areas and the research needed to incrementally improve our ability to help these areas.

negative: Systematic benefit-risk assessment for the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19: Establishing a framework for rapid decision-making Objectives: Given the current pandemic, there is an urgent need to identify effective, safe treatments for COVID-19 (coronavirus disease). A systematic benefit-risk assessment was designed and conducted to strengthen the ongoing monitoring of the benefit-risk balance for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 treatment. Methods: The overall benefit-risk of the use of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for COVID-19 compared to standard of care, placebo or other treatments was assessed using the Benefit-Risk Action Team (BRAT) framework. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar to identify literature reporting clinical outcomes in patients taking chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19. A value tree was constructed and key benefits and risks were ranked by two clinicians in order of considered importance. Results: Several potential key benefits and risks were identified for use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine in COVID-19 treatment. For the benefit of virological clearance, three studies were identified. A significant risk difference (RD) between hydroxychloroquine and the comparator group (standard of care) was found for only one study (RD=0.58, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.98). The risk difference was not significant for the other two studies (RD=-0.07, 95% CI:-0.75, 0.61 and RD=0.08, 95% CI:-0.74, 0.91). In addition, no significant risk difference between hydroxychloroquine and the comparator group (standard of care) was identified for the risk of abnormal liver function tests (LFTs) (RD=0.07, 95% CI: -0.28, 0.41). Conclusions: Overall, no conclusion can be made on the benefit-risk profile of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19 compared to standard of care, placebo or other treatments at this time. Whilst the availability of comparative data are limited, the current framework summarises the key anticipated benefits and risks. As further data from clinical trials and real world use on these benefits and risks becomes available, this can be incorporated into the framework for an ongoing benefit-risk assessment.

negative: COVID-19 medical papers have fewer women first authors than expected The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in school closures and distancing requirements that have disrupted both work and family life for many. Concerns exist that these disruptions caused by the pandemic may not have influenced men and women researchers equally. Many medical journals have published papers on the pandemic, which were generated by researchers facing the challenges of these disruptions. Here we report the results of an analysis that compared the gender distribution of authors on 1893 medical papers related to the pandemic with that on papers published in the same journals in 2019, for papers with first authors and last authors from the United States. Using mixed-effects regression models, we estimated that the proportion of COVID-19 papers with a woman first author was 19% lower than that for papers published in the same journals in 2019, while our comparisons for last authors and overall proportion of women authors per paper were inconclusive. A closer examination suggested that women's representation as first authors of COVID-19 research was particularly low for papers published in March and April 2020. Our findings are consistent with the idea that the research productivity of women, especially early-career women, has been affected more than the research productivity of men.

negative: Disparities in COVID-19 Testing and Positivity in New York City INTRODUCTION: Existing socioeconomic and racial disparities in healthcare access in New York City have likely impacted the public health response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). An ecological study was performed to determine the spatial distribution of COVID-19 testing by ZIP Code Tabulation Area and investigate if testing was associated with race or SES. METHODS: Data were obtained from the New York City Coronavirus data repository and the 2018 American Community Survey 5-year estimates. A combined index of SES was created using principal component analysis, and incorporated household income, gross rent, poverty, education, working class status, unemployment, and occupants per room. Multivariable Poisson regressions were performed to predict the number of total tests and the ratio of positive tests to total tests performed, using the SES index, racial composition, and Hispanic composition as predictors. RESULTS: The number of total tests significantly increased with the increasing proportion of white residents (β=0.004, SE=0.001, p=0.0032), but not with increasing Hispanic composition or SES index score. The ratio of positive tests to total tests significantly decreased with the increasing proportion of white residents in the ZIP Code Tabulation Area (β= –0.003, SE=0.0006, p<0.001) and with increasing SES index score (β= –0.0016, SE=0.0007, p=0.0159). CONCLUSIONS: In New York City, COVID-19 testing has not been proportional to need; existing socioeconomic and racial disparities in healthcare access have likely impacted public health response. There is urgent need for widespread testing and public health outreach for the most vulnerable communities in New York City.

negative: CAN-NPI: A Curated Open Dataset of Canadian Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in Response to the Global COVID-19 Pandemic Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the primary tool used by governments and organizations to mitigate the spread of the ongoing pandemic of COVID-19. Natural experiments are currently being conducted on the impact of these interventions, but most of these occur at the subnational level - data not available in early global datasets. We describe the rapid development of the first comprehensive, labelled dataset of 1640 NPIs implemented at federal, provincial/territorial and municipal levels in Canada to guide COVID-19 research. For each intervention, we provide: a) information on timing to aid in longitudinal evaluation, b) location to allow for robust spatial analyses, and c) classification based on intervention type and target population, including classification aligned with a previously developed measure of government response stringency. This initial dataset release (v1.0) spans January 1st, and March 31st, 2020; bi-weekly data updates to continue for the duration of the pandemic. This novel dataset enables robust, inter-jurisdictional comparisons of pandemic response, can serve as a model for other jurisdictions and can be linked with other information about case counts, transmission dynamics, health care utilization, mobility data and economic indicators to derive important insights regarding NPI impact.

negative: The economic impact of the Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-2019): Implications for the mining industry Abstract The Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) global pandemic has not only caused infections and deaths, but it has also wreaked havoc with the global economy on a scale not seen since at least the Great Depression. Covid-19 has the potential to destroy individual livelihoods, businesses, industries and entire economies. The mining sector is not immune to these impacts, and the crisis has the potential to have severe consequences in the short, medium and long-term for the industry. Understanding these impacts, and analysing their significance for the industry, and the role it plays in wider economic development is a crucial task for academic research.

negative: Calculating the potential for within-flight transmission of influenza A (H1N1) BACKGROUND: Clearly air travel, by transporting infectious individuals from one geographic location to another, significantly affects the rate of spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, the possibility of within-flight transmission of H1N1 has not been evaluated; although it is known that smallpox, measles, tuberculosis, SARS and seasonal influenza can be transmitted during commercial flights. Here we present the first quantitative risk assessment to assess the potential for within-flight transmission of H1N1. METHODS: We model airborne transmission of infectious viral particles of H1N1 within a Boeing 747 using methodology from the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. RESULTS: The risk of catching H1N1 will essentially be confined to passengers travelling in the same cabin as the source case. Not surprisingly, we find that the longer the flight the greater the number of infections that can be expected. We calculate that H1N1, even during long flights, poses a low to moderate within-flight transmission risk if the source case travels First Class. Specifically, 0-1 infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 1-3 during an 11 hour flight and 2-5 during a 17 hour flight. However, within-flight transmission could be significant, particularly during long flights, if the source case travels in Economy Class. Specifically, two to five infections could occur during a 5 hour flight, 5-10 during an 11 hour flight and 7-17 during a 17 hour flight. If the aircraft is only partially loaded, under certain conditions more infections could occur in First Class than in Economy Class. During a 17 hour flight, a greater number of infections would occur in First Class than in Economy if the First Class Cabin is fully occupied, but Economy class is less than 30% full. CONCLUSIONS: Our results provide insights into the potential utility of air travel restrictions on controlling influenza pandemics in the winter of 2009/2010. They show travel by one infectious individual, rather than causing a single outbreak of H1N1, could cause several simultaneous outbreaks. These results imply that, during a pandemic, quarantining passengers who travel in Economy on long-haul flights could potentially be an important control strategy. Notably, our results show that quarantining passengers who travel First Class would be unlikely to be an effective control strategy.