query: Their analysis calculates the existential climate-related security risk to Earth through a scenario set 30 years into the future.

positive: Future of Earth The biological and geological future of Earth can be extrapolated based upon the estimated effects of several long-term influences . These include the chemistry at Earth 's surface , the rate of cooling of the planet 's interior , the gravitational interactions with other objects in the Solar System , and a steady increase in the Sun 's luminosity . An uncertain factor in this extrapolation is the ongoing influence of technology introduced by humans , such as climate engineering , which could cause significant changes to the planet . The current Holocene extinction is being caused by technology and the effects may last for up to five million years . In turn , technology may result in the extinction of humanity , leaving the planet to gradually return to a slower evolutionary pace resulting solely from long-term natural processes .   Over time intervals of hundreds of millions of years , random celestial events pose a global risk to the biosphere , which can result in mass extinctions . These include impacts by comets or asteroids with diameters of 5 -- or more , and the possibility of a massive stellar explosion , called a supernova , within a 100-light-year radius of the Sun , called a Near-Earth supernova . Other large-scale geological events are more predictable . If the long-term effects of global warming are disregarded , Milankovitch theory predicts that the planet will continue to undergo glacial periods at least until the Quaternary glaciation comes to an end . These periods are caused by variations in eccentricity , axial tilt , and precession of the Earth 's orbit . As part of the ongoing supercontinent cycle , plate tectonics will probably result in a supercontinent in 250 -- 350 million years . Some time in the next 1.5 -- 4.5 billion years , the axial tilt of the Earth may begin to undergo chaotic variations , with changes in the axial tilt of up to 90 ° .   During the next four billion years , the luminosity of the Sun will steadily increase , resulting in a rise in the solar radiation reaching the Earth . This will result in a higher rate of weathering of silicate minerals , which will cause a decrease in the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere . In about 600 million years from now , the level of CO2 will fall below the level needed to sustain C3 carbon fixation photosynthesis used by trees . Some plants use the C4 carbon fixation method , allowing them to persist at concentrations as low as 10 parts per million . However , the long-term trend is for plant life to die off altogether . The extinction of plants will be the demise of almost all animal life , since plants are the base of the food chain on Earth .   In about one billion years , the solar luminosity will be 10 % higher than at present . This will cause the atmosphere to become a `` moist greenhouse '' , resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans . As a likely consequence , plate tectonics will come to an end , and with them the entire carbon cycle . Following this event , in about 2 − 3 billion years , the planet 's magnetic dynamo may cease , causing the magnetosphere to decay and leading to an accelerated loss of volatiles from the outer atmosphere . Four billion years from now , the increase in the Earth 's surface temperature will cause a runaway greenhouse effect , heating the surface enough to melt it . By that point , all life on the Earth will be extinct . The most probable fate of the planet is absorption by the Sun in about 7.5 billion years , after the star has entered the red giant phase and expanded to cross the planet 's current orbit .

positive: Global catastrophic risk A global catastrophic risk is a hypothetical future event that has the potential to damage human well-being on a global scale . Some events could cripple or destroy modern civilization . Any event that could cause human extinction is known as an existential risk .   Potential global catastrophic risks include anthropogenic risks ( technology risks , governance risks ) and natural or external risks . Examples of technology risks are hostile artificial intelligence , biotechnology risks , or nanotechnology weapons . Insufficient global governance creates risks in the social and political domain ( potentially leading to a global war with or without a nuclear holocaust , bioterrorism using genetically modified organisms , cyberterrorism destroying critical infrastructures like the electrical grid , or the failure to manage a natural pandemic ) as well as problems and risks in the domain of earth system governance ( with risks resulting from global warming , environmental degradation , mineral resource exhaustion , fossil energy exhaustion , or famine as a result of non-equitable resource distribution , human overpopulation , crop failures and non-sustainable agriculture ) . Examples for non-anthropogenic risks are an asteroid impact event , a supervolcanic eruption , a lethal gamma-ray burst , a geomagnetic storm destroying all electronic equipment , natural long-term climate change , or extraterrestrial life impacting life on Earth .

positive: Environmental sociology Environmental sociology is typically defined as the sociological study of societal-environmental interactions , although this definition immediately presents the problem of integrating human cultures with the rest of the environment . Although the focus of the field is the relationship between society and environment in general , environmental sociologists typically place special emphasis on studying the social factors that cause environmental problems , the societal impacts of those problems , and efforts to solve the problems . In addition , considerable attention is paid to the social processes by which certain environmental conditions become socially defined as problems .   Although there was sometimes acrimonious debate between the constructivist and realist `` camps '' within environmental sociology in the 1990s , the two sides have found considerable common ground as both increasingly accept that while most environmental problems have a material reality they nonetheless become known only via human processes such as scientific knowledge , activists ' efforts , and media attention . In other words , most environmental problems have a real ontological status despite our knowledge/awareness of them stemming from social processes , processes by which various conditions are constructed as problems by scientists , activists , media and other social actors . Correspondingly , environmental problems must all be understood via social processes , despite any material basis they may have external to humans . This interactiveness is now broadly accepted , but many aspects of the debate continue in contemporary research in the field .

positive: Global issue Informally , a global issue describes any social , economic , political or environmental problem that affects the global community , possibly in a catastrophic way .   Solution to global issues requires cooperation among nations .   In their book Global Issues , Hite and Seitz emphasize that global issues are qualitatively different from international affairs and that the former arise from growing international interdependencies which makes the issues themselves interdependent .

negative: Terminal value (finance) In finance , the terminal value ( continuing value or horizon value ) of a security is the present value at a future point in time of all future cash flows when we expect stable growth rate forever . It is most often used in multi-stage discounted cash flow analysis , and allows for the limitation of cash flow projections to a several-year period . Forecasting results beyond such a period is impractical and exposes such projections to a variety of risks limiting their validity , primarily the great uncertainty involved in predicting industry and macroeconomic conditions beyond a few years .   Thus , the terminal value allows for the inclusion of the value of future cash flows occurring beyond a several-year projection period while satisfactorily mitigating many of the problems of valuing such cash flows . The terminal value is calculated in accordance with a stream of projected future free cash flows in discounted cash flow analysis . For whole-company valuation purposes , there are two methodologies used to calculate the Terminal Value .

negative: Dynamic financial analysis Dynamic financial analysis ( DFA ) is a simulation approach that looks at an insurance enterprise 's risks holistically as opposed to traditional actuarial analysis , which analyzes risks individually . Specifically , DFA reveals the dependencies of hazards and their impacts on the insurance company 's financial well being such as business mix , reinsurance , asset allocation , profitability , solvency , and compliance .   In addition to projecting stochastic future economic scenarios through using scenario generators such as interest rate , underwriting cycle and jurisdictional risk models , DFA also links the scenarios with the financial models of the targeted insurance company that is being analyzed . Such models not only reveal the operation and the business structure of the company , but also uncover the dependencies among its business practices . Because DFA tries to account for every aspect of the company , it produces a vast amount of data . As a result , analyzing and presenting the outputs effectively is of great importance .

negative: Climate change in Japan Climate change in Japan is being addressed at a governmental level .   The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) proposes two hypothetical future scenarios . One is Scenario `` A1B '' based on the assumption that a future world will have more global economic growth ( the concentration of carbon dioxide will be 720ppm in 2100 ) . The other is Scenario `` B1 '' based on the assumption that a future world will have global green economy ( the concentration of carbon dioxide will be 550ppm in 2100 ) .   Earth Simulator calculations , reveal the daily increase in mean temperature in Japan during the period of 2071 to 2100 . The temperature has increased by 3.0 ° C in Scenario B1 and 4.2 ° C in A1B compared to that of 1971 to 2000 . Similarly , the daily maximum temperature in Japan increased by 3.1 ° C in B1 and 4.4 ° C in A1B . The precipitation in summer in Japan increased steadily due to global warming ( the annual average precipitation increased by 17 % in Scenario B1 and by 19 % in Scenario A1B during the period of 2071 to 2100 compared to that of 1971 to 2000 ) .   Currently , Japan is a world leader in the development of new climate-friendly technologies . Honda and Toyota hybrid electric vehicles were named to have the highest fuel efficiency and lowest emissions . The fuel economy and emissions decrease is due to the advanced technology in hybrid systems , biofuels , use of lighter weight material and better engineering .   As a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol , and host of the 1997 conference which created it , Japan is under treaty obligations to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions and to take other steps related to curbing climate change . The Cool Biz campaign introduced under former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi was targeted at reducing energy use through the reduction of air conditioning use in government offices .

negative: CME SPAN The Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk , or SPAN , is a system for calculating margin requirements for futures and options on futures . It was developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1988 .   SPAN is a portfolio margining method that uses grid simulation . It calculates the likely loss in a set of derivative positions ( also called a portfolio ) and sets this value as the initial margin payable by the firm holding the portfolio . In this manner , SPAN provides for offsets between correlated positions and enhances margining efficiency .

negative: Litigation risk analysis Litigation risk analysis is a subset of decision tree analysis and is the application of decision tree analysis to litigation and lawsuits . The term was first coined by Marc Victor . Litigation risk analysis is a growing practice by lawyers , mediators , and other alternative dispute resolution ( ADR ) professionals . When applied in mediation settings , litigation risk analysis is used to determine litigated best alternative to negotiated agreement ( BATNA ) and worst alternative to negotiated agreement ( WATNA ) scenarios based upon the probabilities and possible outcomes of continuing to litigate the case rather than settle Simple Risk Analysis in Mediation . The process of performing a litigation risk analysis by mediators has been hampered by the need for mediators to physically draw out the decision tree and perform calculations to arrive at an expected value ( EV ) . However , there have been calls for more mediators to adopt the practice of performing such an analysis Risk Analysis in Mediation by Geoff Sharp .

negative: Urban seismic risk Urban seismic risk is a subset of the general term seismic risk which describes the problems specific to centers of population when they are subjected to earthquakes . Many risks can be minimized with good earthquake construction , and seismic analysis . One of the best ways to deal with the issue is through an earthquake scenario analysis .

negative: Risk analysis Risk analysis can be defined in many different ways , and much of the definition depends on how risk analysis relates to other concepts . Risk analysis can be `` broadly defined to include risk assessment , risk characterization , risk communication , risk management , and policy relating to risk , in the context of risks of concern to individuals , to public - and private-sector organizations , and to society at a local , regional , national , or global level . '' A useful construct is to divide risk analysis into two components : ( 1 ) risk assessment ( identifying , evaluating , and measuring the probability and severity of risks ) and ( 2 ) risk management ( deciding what to do about risks ) . Some books take a slightly different approach and define risk management as the overarching concept , where risk analysis is the component that seeks to identify and measure the risks and risk mitigation is determining what to do about the risks .   Risk analysis can be qualitative or quantitative . Qualitative risk analysis uses words or colors to identify and evaluate risks or presents a written description of the risk , and quantitative risk analysis ( QRA ) calculates numerical probabilities over the possible consequences .

negative: Information security management Information security ( InfoSec ) describes activities that relate to the protection of information and information infrastructure assets against the risks of loss , misuse , disclosure or damage .   Information security management ( ISM ) describes controls that an organization needs to implement to ensure that it is sensibly managing these risks .   The risks to these assets can be calculated by analysis of the following issues :   Threats to your assets : These are unwanted events that could cause the deliberate or accidental loss , damage or misuse of the assets  Vulnerabilities : How susceptible your assets are to attack  Impact : The magnitude of the potential loss or the seriousness of the event .   Standards that are available to assist organizations implement the appropriate programmes and controls to mitigate these risks are for example BS7799/ISO 27000 , Information Technology Infrastructure Library , O-ISM3 and COBIT .

negative: Financial condition report In accounting , a financial condition report ( FCR ) is a report on the solvency condition of an insurance company that takes into account both the current financial status , as reflected in the balance sheet , and an assessment of the ability of the company to survive future risk scenarios . Risk assessment in a FCR involves dynamic solvency testing , a type of dynamic financial analysis that simulates management response to risk scenarios , to test whether a company could remain solvent in the face of deteriorating economic conditions or major disasters . Dynamic solvency testing may involve both deterministic projections , based on known risks , and stochastic projections that include random risk events .   FCRs are a part of the statutory reporting requirements for life insurance companies in Pakistan , Australia , Ghana and non-life insurance companies in Canada . FCRs are also required in the UK under the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 and in Ireland . While many consider FCRs a type of compliance report , they can also be useful for corporate management to identify weaknesses in risk strategy , to test diversification of risk through , e.g. , reinsurance , and to set fair market pricing for options .

negative: MEHARI MEHARI ( MEthod for Harmonized Analysis of RIsk ) is a free , open-source information risk analysis assessment and risk management method , for the use of information security professionals .   MEHARI enables business managers , information security/risk management professionals and other stakeholders to evaluate and manage the organization 's risks relating to information , information systems and information processes ( not just IT ) . It is designed to align with and support information security risk management according to ISO/IEC 27005 , particularly in the context of an ISO/IEC 27001-compliant Information Security Management System ( ISMS ) or a similar overarching security management or governance framework .

negative: Coupled model intercomparison project In climatology , the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ( CMIP ) is a framework and the analog of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project ( AMIP ) for global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models ( GCMs ) . CMIP began in 1995 under the auspices of the Working Group on Coupled Modeling ( WGCM ) , which is in turn under auspices of CLIVAR and the Joint Scientific Committee for the World Climate Research Program .   The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory supports CMIP by helping WGCM to determine the scope of the project , by maintaining the project 's data base and by participating in data analysis . CMIP has received model output from the pre-industrial climate simulations ( `` control runs '' ) and 1 % per year increasing-CO2 simulations of about 30 coupled GCMs . More recent phases of the project ( 20C3M , ... ) include more realistic scenarios of climate forcing for both historical , paleoclimate and future scenarios .

negative: Margin (finance) In finance , margin is collateral that the holder of a financial instrument has to deposit with a counterparty ( most often their broker or an exchange ) to cover some or all of the credit risk the holder poses for the counterparty . This risk can arise if the holder has done any of the following :   Borrowed cash from the counterparty to buy financial instruments ,  Borrowed financial instruments to sell them short , or  Entered into a derivative contract .   The collateral for a margin account can be the cash deposited in the account or securities provided , and represents the funds available to the account holder for further share trading . On United States futures exchanges , margins were formerly called performance bonds . Most of the exchanges today use SPAN ( `` Standard Portfolio Analysis of Risk '' ) methodology , which was developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1988 , for calculating margins for options and futures .

negative: Credit valuation adjustment Credit valuation adjustment ( CVA ) is the difference between the risk-free portfolio value and the true portfolio value that takes into account the possibility of a counterparty 's default . In other words , CVA is the market value of counterparty credit risk . This price depends on counterparty credit spreads as well as on the market risk factors that drive derivatives ' values and , therefore , exposure . Various related adjustments , collectively xVA , are discussed under Financial economics #Extensions .   Unilateral CVA is given by the risk-neutral expectation of the discounted loss . The risk-neutral expectation can be written as     where is the maturity of the longest transaction in the portfolio , is the future value of one unit of the base currency invested today at the prevailing interest rate for maturity , is the fraction of the portfolio value that can be recovered in case of a default , is the time of default , is the exposure at time , and is the risk neutral probability of counterparty default between times and . These probabilities can be obtained from the term structure of credit default swap ( CDS ) spreads .   More generally CVA can refer to a few different concepts :  The mathematical concept as defined above ;  A part of the regulatory Capital and RWA ( Risk-weighted asset ) calculation introduced under Basel 3 ;  The CVA desk of an investment bank , whose purpose is to :  hedge for possible losses due to counterparty default ;  hedge to reduce the amount of capital required under the CVA calculation of Basel 3 ;  The `` CVA charge '' . The hedging of the CVA desk has a cost associated to it , i.e. the bank has to buy the hedging instrument . This cost is then allocated to each business line of an investment bank ( usually as a contra revenue ) . This allocated cost is called the `` CVA Charge '' .   According to the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision 's July 2015 consultation document regarding CVA calculations , if CVA is calculated using 100 timesteps with 10,000 scenarios per timestep , 1 million simulations are required to compute the value of CVA . Calculating CVA risk would require 250 daily market risk scenarios over the 12-month stress period . CVA has to be calculated for each market risk scenario , resulting in 250 million simulations . These calculations have to be repeated across 6 risk types and 5 liquidity horizons , resulting in potentially 8.75 billion simulations .

negative: Potential future exposure Potential Future Exposure ( PFE ) is defined as the maximum expected credit exposure over a specified period of time calculated at some level of confidence ( i.e. at a given quantile ) .   PFE is a measure of counterparty risk/credit risk . It is calculated by evaluating existing trades done against the possible market prices in future during the lifetime of transactions . It can be called sensitivity of risk w.r.t market prices . The calculated expected maximum exposure value is not to be confused with the maximum credit exposure possible . Instead , the maximum credit exposure indicated by the PFE analysis is an upper bound on a confidence interval for future credit exposure .   Credit risk managers have traditionally remained focused on current exposure measurement ( i.e. , current mark-to-market exposure , plus outstanding receivables ) and collateral management . The problem with this focus is that it places excessive emphasis on the present and fails to provide an acceptable indication of credit risk at some point in the future . Because losses from credit risk take a relatively long time to evolve , a more useful measure of exposure is potential exposure . Potential exposure is not like current exposure . It exists in the future and therefore represents a range or distribution of outcomes rather than a single point estimate .

negative: Incomplete markets In economics , incomplete markets are markets in which the number of Arrow -- Debreu securities is less than the number of states of nature . In contrast with complete markets , this shortage of securities will likely restrict individuals from transferring the desired level of wealth among states .   An Arrow security purchased or sold at date t is a contract promising to deliver one unit of income in one of the possible contingencies which can occur at date t + 1 . If at each date-event there exists a complete set of such contracts , one for each contingency that can occur at the following date , individuals will trade these contracts in order to insure against future risks , targeting a desirable and budget feasible level of consumption in each state ( i.e. consumption smoothing ) . In most set ups when these contracts are not available , optimal risk sharing between agents will not be possible . For this scenario , agents ( homeowners , workers , firms , investors , etc. ) will lack the instruments to insure against future risks such as employment status , health , labor income , prices , among others .

negative: Paul Raskin Paul Raskin is the founding President of the Tellus Institute , which has conducted over 3,500 research and policy projects throughout the world on environmental issues , resource planning , scenario analysis , and sustainable development . His research and writing has centered on formulating and analyzing alternative global and regional scenarios , and the requirements for a transition to a sustainable , just , and livable future , called the Great Transition . Dr. Raskin has served as a lead author on a number of high profile international reports , including the U.S. National Academy of Science 's Board on Sustainability , the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment , the United Nations Environment Programme 's Global Environment Outlook , the Earth Charter , and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Third Assessment Report .

negative: Acceptance set In financial mathematics , acceptance set is a set of acceptable future net worth which is acceptable to the regulator . It is related to risk measures .

negative: Future of Life Institute The Future of Life Institute ( FLI ) is a volunteer-run research and outreach organization in the Boston area that works to mitigate existential risks facing humanity , particularly existential risk from advanced artificial intelligence ( AI ) . Its founders include MIT cosmologist Max Tegmark , Skype co-founder Jaan Tallinn , and its board of advisors includes cosmologist Stephen Hawking and entrepreneur Elon Musk .

negative: Human extinction In futures studies , human extinction is the hypothetical end of the human species . This may be caused by natural causes or it may be anthropogenic , i.e. the result of human action .   The likelihood of human extinction in the near future by wholly natural scenarios , such as a meteorite impact or large-scale volcanism , is generally considered to be extremely low .   For anthropogenic extinction , many possible scenarios have been proposed : Human global nuclear annihilation , biological warfare or the release of a pandemic-causing agent , dysgenics , overpopulation , ecological collapse , and global warming ; in addition , emerging technologies could bring about new extinction scenarios , such as advanced artificial intelligence , biotechnology or self-replicating nanobots . The probability of anthropogenic human extinction within the next hundred years is the topic of an active debate .   Human extinction needs to be differentiated from the extinction of all life on Earth ( see also future of Earth ) and from the extinction of major components of human culture ( e.g. , through a global catastrophe leaving only small , scattered human populations , which might evolve in isolation ) .

negative: Hazard analysis Note : Parts of this article are written from the perspective of aircraft safety analysis techniques and definitions ; these may not represent current best practice and the article needs to be updated to represent a more generic description of hazard analysis and discussion of more modern standards and techniques .   A hazard analysis is used as the first step in a process used to assess risk . The result of a hazard analysis is the identification of different type of hazards . A hazard is a potential condition and exists or not ( probability is 1 or 0 ) . It may in single existence or in combination with other hazards ( sometimes called events ) and conditions become an actual Functional Failure or Accident ( Mishap ) . The way this exactly happens in one particular sequence is called a scenario . This scenario has a probability ( between 1 and 0 ) of occurrence . Often a system has many potential failure scenarios . It also is assigned a classification , based on the worst case severity of the end condition . Risk is the combination of probability and severity . Preliminary risk levels can be provided in the hazard analysis . The validation , more precise prediction ( verification ) and acceptance of risk is determined in the Risk assessment ( analysis ) . The main goal of both is to provide the best selection of means of controlling or eliminating the risk . The term is used in several engineering specialties , including avionics , chemical process safety , safety engineering , reliability engineering and food safety .

negative: Fixed income analysis Fixed income analysis is the valuation of fixed income or debt securities , and the analysis of their interest rate risk , credit risk , and likely price behavior in hedging portfolios . The analyst might conclude to buy , sell , hold , hedge or stay out of the particular security .   Fixed income products are generally bonds issued by various government treasuries , companies or international organizations . Bond holders are usually entitled to coupon payments at periodic intervals until maturity . These coupon payments are generally fixed amounts ( quoted as percentage of the bond 's face value ) or the coupons could float in relation to LIBOR or another reference rate .

negative: Economic capital __ NOTOC __  In finance , mainly for financial services firms , economic capital is the amount of risk capital , assessed on a realistic basis , which a firm requires to cover the risks that it is running or collecting as a going concern , such as market risk , credit risk , legal risk , and operational risk . It is the amount of money which is needed to secure survival in a worst-case scenario . Firms and financial services regulators should then aim to hold risk capital of an amount equal at least to economic capital .   Typically , economic capital is calculated by determining the amount of capital that the firm needs to ensure that its realistic balance sheet stays solvent over a certain time period with a pre-specified probability . Therefore , economic capital is often calculated as value at risk . The balance sheet , in this case , would be prepared showing market value ( rather than book value ) of assets and liabilities .   The first accounts of economic capital date back to the ancient Phoenicians , who took rudimentary tallies of frequency and severity of illnesses among rural farmers to gain an intuition of expected losses in productivity . These calculations were advanced by correlations to climate change , political outbreak , and birth rate change .   The concept of economic capital differs from regulatory capital in the sense that regulatory capital is the mandatory capital the regulators require to be maintained while economic capital is the best estimate of required capital that financial institutions use internally to manage their own risk and to allocate the cost of maintaining regulatory capital among different units within the organization .

negative: Existence (disambiguation) Existence , a philosophical concept in metaphysics and ontology .   Existence may also refer to :  Existence ( Dark Suns album )  Existence ( Beto Vázquez Infinity album )  `` Existence '' ( The X-Files ) , a 2001 television episode  eXistenZ , a 1999 horror science-fiction film  The Existence , a 2004 EP release by Forever Changed  Existence , David Brin novel  The 14 , a 1973 British film also released as Existence and The Wild Little Bunch  Existence , is the name of a music project founded by Margot Reisinger   Existential can mean `` relating to existence '' or `` relating to existentialism '' . It is used in particular to refer to :  Existential quantification , in logic and mathematics ( symbolized by ∃ )  Existential clause , in linguistics  Existential crisis  Existential fallacy  Existential humanism  Existential forgery  Existential risk  Existential therapy  Existential graph  Existential phenomenology

negative: Orbital forcing Orbital forcing is the effect on climate of slow changes in the tilt of the Earth 's axis and shape of the orbit ( see Milankovitch cycles ) . These orbital changes change the total amount of sunlight reaching the Earth by up to 25 % at mid-latitudes ( from 400 to 500 Wm − 2 at latitudes of 60 degrees ) . In this context , the term `` forcing '' signifies a physical process that affects the Earth 's climate .   This mechanism is believed to be responsible for the timing of the ice age cycles . A strict application of the Milankovitch theory does not allow the prediction of a `` sudden '' ice age ( rapid being anything under a century or two ) , since the fastest orbital period is about 20,000 years . The timing of past glacial periods coincides very well with the predictions of the Milankovitch theory , and these effects can be calculated into the future .

negative: Climatological normal Climatological normal is a 30-year average of a weather variable . Climatological normals are used as an average or baseline to evaluate climate events and provide context for year-to-year variability . Normals can be calculated for a variety of weather variables including temperature and precipitation and rely on data from weather stations . Variability from the 30-year averages is typical and climate variability looks at the magnitude of extremes .

negative: Risk score Risk score ( or risk scoring ) is the name given to a general practice in applied statistics , bio-statistics , econometrics and other related disciplines , of creating an easily calculated number ( the score ) that reflects the level of risk in the presence of some risk factors ( e.g. risk of mortality or disease in the presence of symptoms or genetic profile , risk financial loss considering credit and financial history , etc. ) .   Risk scores are designed to be :  Simple to calculate : In many cases all you need to calculate a score is nothing a pen and a piece of paper ( although some scores use rely on more sophisticated or less transparent calculations that require a computer program ) .  Easily interpreted : The result of the calculation is a single number , and higher score usually means means higher risk . Furthermore , many scoring methods enforce some form of monotonicity along the measured risk factors to allow a straight forward interpretation of the score ( e.g. risk of mortality only increases with age , risk of payment default only increase with the amount of total debt the customer has , etc. ) .  Actionable : Scores are designed around a set of possible actions that should be taken as a result of the calculated score . Effective score-based policies can be designed and executed by setting thresholds on the value of the score and associating them with escalating actions .

negative: Scenario (disambiguation) Scenario or scenarios may refer to :  Scenario , a synopsis of a series of actions and events in a work of the performing arts that lacks a full script , such as a ballet  scenario , a possible set of future events , see scenario planning and scenario analysis  Scenario ( computing ) , the interaction between a computer user and a computer system or between two software components  Scenario optimization , is a technique for obtaining solutions to problems based on randomization of the constraints  User scenario , used to communicate an idea for a product or experience involving interactivity  Scenario in films , part of the screenwriting process , precursor to a screenplay  Scenario -- A Journal for Drama and Theatre Pedagogy , a bilingual online journal  Scenario ( album ) , a 1983 album by Al Di Meola  Scenarios ( album ) , by Andy Milne and Grégoire Maret  Scenario ( song ) , a 1992 song by hip-hop group , A Tribe Called Quest  Scenario ( artwork ) , an artificially intelligent interactive cinema project

negative: Device-independent quantum cryptography A quantum cryptographic protocol is device-independent if its security does not rely on trusting that the quantum devices used are truthful .  Thus the security analysis of such a protocol needs to consider scenarios of imperfect or even malicious devices . Several important problems have been shown to admit unconditional secure and device-independent protocols . A closely related topic ( that is not discussed in this article ) is measurement-device independent quantum key distribution .

negative: Willis Resilience Expedition The Willis Resilience Expedition is a scientific and exploratory program taking place in Antarctica from November 2013 to January 2014 , with goals of gaining a better understanding of the Earth 's changing climate and weather-related risk . Announced in August 2013 , the Expedition will be led by Parker Liautaud , a teenage polar adventurer and environmental campaigner , and fellow explorer Douglas Stoup . The expedition is being underwritten by Willis Group , a global risk advisor , insurance and reinsurance broker .   The expedition is significant for a number of reasons :  Science . Liautaud and Stoup plan to conduct an isotope transect of Antarctica by collecting snow samples on which stable isotope analysis will be conducted in the hope of providing a valuable contribution to human understanding of Antarctic climate and potential for climate change .  World Record Attempt . Parker Liautaud will attempt to ski 640 km unsupported from the coast of Antarctica to the South Pole in 22 days , in the hope of setting a `` coast to Pole '' speed record . At 19 years old , he also hopes to become the youngest person to ski to both the North and the South Poles .  Live Communications . The Expedition will be accompanied by a custom-built 6x6 communications truck outfitted with equipment that will provide 24x7 connectivity to the rest of the world , enabling Liautaud and Stoup to document the journey in real time .

negative: ASTOS ASTOS is a tool dedicated to mission analysis , Trajectory optimization , vehicle design and simulation for space scenarios , i.e. launch , re-entry missions , orbit transfers , Earth observation , navigation , coverage and re-entry safety assessments . It solves Aerospace problems with a data driven interface and automatic initial guesses . Since 1989 , with the support of the European Space Agency , it has developed , and improved this trajectory optimization environment to compute optimal trajectories for a variety of complex multi-phase Optimal control problems . ASTOS is being extensively used at ESA and aerospace industry community to calculate mission analysis , optimal launch and entry trajectories and was one of the tools used by ESA to assess the risk due to the ATV ` Jules Verne ' re-entry . ASTOS is compatible with Windows and Linux platforms and is maintained and commercialized by Astos Solutions GmbH .

negative: Geopotential model In geophysics , a geopotential model is the theoretical analysis of measuring and calculating the effects of Earth 's gravitational field .

negative: Nano-Tera The Nano-Tera . ch research program is a Swiss federal program , funding scientific projects which endorse nanotechnology on a tera and Nano Tera scale , in order to improve technology for health , security , energy and the environment .   Some of its goals are to detect real time different health risks and conditions through body-integrated bio probing , to reveal security risks through smart buildings and environments , to save energy through ambient sensing and to detect environmental hazards such as floods and avalanches from inaccessible positions on earth .


query: While transient weather variability is playing a key role here, the widespread record warmth across the U.S. so far this year is part of a long-term trend toward more warm temperature records versus cold ones.

positive: Little Ice Age The Little Ice Age ( LIA ) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period . Although it was not a true ice age , the term was introduced into scientific literature by François E. Matthes in 1939 . It has been conventionally defined as a period extending from the 16th to the 19th centuries , but some experts prefer an alternative timespan from about 1300 to about 1850 . Climatologists and historians working with local records no longer expect to agree on either the start or end dates of the period , which varied according to local conditions .   The NASA Earth Observatory notes three particularly cold intervals : one beginning about 1650 , another about 1770 , and the last in 1850 , all separated by intervals of slight warming . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report considered the timing and areas affected by the Little Ice Age suggested largely-independent regional climate changes rather than a globally-synchronous increased glaciation . At most , there was modest cooling of the Northern Hemisphere during the period .   Several causes have been proposed : cyclical lows in solar radiation , heightened volcanic activity , changes in the ocean circulation , variations in Earth 's orbit and axial tilt ( orbital forcing ) , inherent variability in global climate , and decreases in the human population .

positive: Instrumental temperature record The instrumental temperature record provides the temperature of Earth 's climate system from the historical network of in situ measurements of surface air temperatures and ocean surface temperatures . Data are collected at thousands of meteorological stations , buoys and ships around the globe . The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series , that starts in 1659 . The longest-running quasi-global record starts in 1850 . In recent decades more extensive sampling of ocean temperatures at various depths have begun allowing estimates of ocean heat content but these do not form part of the global surface temperature datasets .

positive: Global warming Global warming , also referred to as climate change , is the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth 's climate system and its related effects . Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming . Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented in the instrumental temperature record which extends back to the mid 19th century , and in paleoclimate proxy records over thousands of years .   In 2013 , the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) Fifth Assessment Report concluded that `` It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . '' The largest human influence has been emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide , methane and nitrous oxide . Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.6 to for the highest emissions scenario . These findings have been recognized by the national science academies of the major industrialized nations and are not disputed by any scientific body of national or international standing .   Future climate change and associated impacts will differ from region to region around the globe . Anticipated effects include warming global temperature , rising sea levels , changing precipitation , and expansion of deserts in the subtropics . Warming is expected to be greater over land than over the oceans and greatest in the Arctic , with the continuing retreat of glaciers , permafrost and sea ice . Other likely changes include more frequent extreme weather events including heat waves , droughts , heavy rainfall with floods and heavy snowfall ; ocean acidification ; and species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes . Effects significant to humans include the threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the abandonment of populated areas due to rising sea levels . Because the climate system has a large `` inertia '' and greenhouse gases will stay in the atmosphere for a long time , many of these effects will not only exist for decades or centuries , but will persist for tens of thousands of years .   Possible societal responses to global warming include mitigation by emissions reduction , adaptation to its effects , building systems resilient to its effects , and possible future climate engineering . Most countries are parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) ,  whose ultimate objective is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change . Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2.0 C-change relative to pre-industrial levels , with efforts made to limit warming to 1.5 C-change .   Public reactions to global warming and concern about its effects are also increasing . A global 2015 Pew Research Center report showed a median of 54 % consider it `` a very serious problem '' . There are significant regional differences , with Americans and Chinese ( whose economies are responsible for the greatest annual CO2 emissions ) among the least concerned .

negative: Global warming hiatus A global warming hiatus , also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown , is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures . In the current episode of global warming many such 15-year periods appear in the surface temperature record , along with robust evidence of the long-term warming trend ; climate is classically averaged over 30-year periods .   Publicity has surrounded claims of a global warming hiatus during the period 1998 -- 2013 . The exceptionally warm El Niño year of 1998 was an outlier from the continuing temperature trend , and so subsequent annual temperatures gave the appearance of a hiatus : by January 2006 , it appeared to some that global warming had stopped or paused . A 2009 study showed that decades without warming were not exceptional , and in 2011 a study showed that if allowances were made for known variability , the rising temperature trend continued unabated . There was increased public interest in 2013 in the run-up to publication of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report , and despite concerns that a 15-year period was too short to determine a meaningful trend , the IPCC included a section on a hiatus , which it defined as a much smaller increasing linear trend over the 15 years from 1998 to 2012 , than over the 60 years from 1951 to 2012 . Various studies examined possible causes of the short-term slowdown . Even though the overall climate system has continued to accumulate energy due to Earth 's positive energy budget , the available temperature readings at the Earth 's surface indicate slower rates of increase in surface warming than in the prior decade . Since measurements at the top of the atmosphere show that Earth is receiving more energy than it is radiating back into space , the retained energy should be producing warming in the Earth 's climate system .   Research reported in July 2015 on an updated NOAA dataset casts doubt on the existence of a hiatus , and it finds no indication of a slowdown even in earlier years . Scientists working on other datasets welcomed this study , though they have expressed the view that the recent warming trend was less than in previous periods of the same length . Subsequently , a detailed study supports the conclusion that warming is continuing , but it also find there was less warming between 2001 and 2010 than climate models had predicted , and that this slowdown might be attributed to short-term variations in the Pacific decadal oscillation ( PDO ) , which was negative during that period . Another review finds `` no substantive evidence '' of a pause in global warming . A statistical study of global temperature data since 1970 concludes that the term ` hiatus ' or ` pause ' is not justified .   Independent of these discussions about data and measurements for earlier years , 2015 turned out to be much warmer than any of the earlier years , already before El Niño conditions started . The warmth of 2015 largely ended any remaining scientific credibility of claims that the supposed `` hiatus '' since 1998 had any significance for the long-term warming trend . In January 2017 , a study published in the journal Science Advances cast further doubt on the existence of a recent pause , with more evidence that ocean temperatures have been underestimated . An April 2017 study found the data consistent with a steady warming trend globally since the 1970s , with fluctuations within the expected range of short term variability .

negative: Winter of 2009–10 in Europe The winter of 2009 -- 2010 in Europe was unusually cold . Globally , unusual weather patterns brought cold , moist air from the north . Weather systems were undergoing cyclogenesis from North American storms moving across the Atlantic Ocean to the west , and saw many parts of Europe experiencing heavy snowfall and record-low temperatures . This led to a number of deaths , widespread transport disruption , power failures and postponed sporting events .

negative: Divergence problem The divergence problem is an anomaly from the field of dendroclimatology , the study of past climate through observations of old trees , primarily the properties of their annual growth rings . It is the disagreement between the temperatures measured by the thermometers ( instrumental temperatures ) and the temperatures reconstructed from the latewood densities or , in some cases , widths of tree rings in the far northern forests .   While the thermometer records indicate a substantial late 20th century warming trend , many tree rings from such sites do not display a corresponding change in their maximum latewood density . In some studies this issue has also been found with tree ring width . A temperature trend extracted from tree rings alone would not show any substantial warming since the 1950s . The temperature graphs calculated in these two ways thus `` diverge '' from one another , which is the origin of the term .

negative: January 2016 East Asia cold wave In late January 2016 , a cold wave struck much of East Asia , parts of mainland Southeast Asia and parts of northern South Asia , bringing record cold temperatures and snowfall to many regions . Sleet was reported in Okinawa for the first time on record , and many other regions saw their coldest temperatures in decades . Snowfall and frigid weather stranded thousands of people across four countries . At least 85 people in Taiwan died from hypothermia and cardiac arrest following a sudden drop in temperature during the weekend of January 22 -- 24 . The cold claimed a further fourteen lives in Thailand , and snowstorms resulted in six deaths across Japan . This event was driven by a fast Arctic warming that occurred within the troposphere , forcing the Arctic Oscillation to change phase rapidly from positive ( in late December ) to negative ( in late January ) , facilitating the atmospheric blocking and associated Siberian high buildup .

negative: Climate of Miami Miami has a tropical monsoon climate ( Köppen climate classification Am ) with hot and humid summers and short , warm winters , with a marked drier season in the winter . Köppen climate classification Its sea-level elevation , coastal location , position just above the Tropic of Cancer , and proximity to the Gulf Stream shape its climate .   With January averaging 69.2 F , winter features warm temperatures ; cool air usually settles after the passage of a cold front , which produces much of the little amount of rainfall . Lows sometimes fall to or below 50 F , with an average 3 such occurrences annually , but very rarely 40 F ; from 1981 to 2010 , temperatures reached that level in only eight calendar years . Highs generally reach 70 F or higher , and fail to do so on only an average of 12 days annually .   The wet season usually begins during the month of May and continues through mid-October . During this period , temperatures are in the mid 80s to low 90s ( 29 -- 35 ° C ) , accompanied by high humidity , though the heat is often relieved by afternoon thunderstorms or a sea breeze that develops off the Atlantic Ocean , which then allow lower temperatures , but conditions still remain very muggy . Much of the year 's 61.9 in of rainfall occurs during this period .   Extreme temperatures range from 26.5 ° F ( recorded as 27 in the almanac ) on February 3 , 1917 , to 100 ° F on July 21 , 1942 , ( − 2.8 to 38 ° C ) , the triple-digit ( ° F ) reading on record ; the more recent freezing temperature seen at Miami International Airport was on December 25 , 1989 . The highest daily minimum temperature is 84 ° F on August 4 , 1993 and September 7 , 1897 ( although the corresponding record for Miami Beach is 90 ° F on July 17 , 2001 ) , and conversely , the lowest daily maximum temperature is 45 ° F on February 19 , 1900 .   While Miami has never officially recorded any accumulating snowfall since records have been kept , there were dubious claims of snow flurries on January 19 , 1977 during the cold wave of January 1977 . Weather conditions for the area around Miami were recorded sporadically from 1839 until 1900 , with many years-long gaps . A cooperative temperature and rainfall recording site was established in what is now Downtown in December 1900 . An official Weather Bureau Office opened in Miami in June 1911 . Heavy snow squalls with accumulations that lasted for a few hours after the snow had stopped falling in February 1899 were reported , but these are not official since there is no written record of it .   Miami receives abundant rainfall , one of the highest among major cities in the United States . Most of this rainfall occurs from mid-May through early October . Miami has an average annual rainfall of 61.9 in , whereas nearby Fort Lauderdale and Miami Beach receive 66.5 in and 51.7 in , respectively , which demonstrates the high local variability in rainfall rates .   Miami reports more thunderstorms than most US cities , with about eighty days per year having thunder reported . These storms are often strong , with frequent lightning and very heavy rain . Occasionally , they can be severe with damaging straight line winds and large hail . Tornadoes and waterspouts sometimes occur , although violent tornadoes of the type seen in other parts of the United States are rare in Florida .   During El Niño events , Miami becomes cooler than normal during the dry season with above average precipitation . During La Niña , Miami becomes warmer and drier than normal .   A record setting 12-day cold snap in January 2010 was the coldest period since at least the 1940s . During the cold wave of January 1977 that saw snowfall over the majority of the state , isolated flurries have been observed on the outskirts of Miami , which is the only recorded snowfall in the history of the region .   The climate for much of the state is humid subtropical ( Köppen Cfa ) , South Florida , as well as all of the Florida Keys , qualify as one of several tropical classifications ( Köppen Aw , Am , or Af ) . Köppen climate classification Southeastern Florida falls into USDA zone 10b for plant hardiness , where annual extreme low temperatures range from 30 to , versus zone 9 in Central Florida , and zone 8 in northern Florida . With global warming , the urban heat island effect , as well as Biscayne Bay as a buffer , the waterside downtown area and the barrier islands including Miami Beach made it into hardiness zone 11a by 2012 . Miami Beach has virtually no freezing weather in its history and very few sub - 40 F weather . Roughly 115 mi north of Miami , Jensen Beach is at the threshold of Florida 's tropical climate designation , with January having an average about 64 F. Southeastern Florida is also the only area in the continental United States to be in Zone 1 for Energy Star recommended insulation levels , with Hawaii , Puerto Rico , and the US Virgin Islands .

negative: Wibjörn Karlén Wibjörn Karlén ( born 26 August 1937 in Kristine , Kopparberg County , Sweden ) , Ph.D. , is a professor emeritus of physical geography and quaternary geology at Stockholm University , Sweden .   In an article which describes Karlén as a paleoclimatologist , he is quoted as saying : `` One of the big problems with trying to determine long-term temperature changes , is that weather records only go back to about 1860 . By relying on statistical reconstruction of the last 1000 years , using only the temperature patterns of the last 140 years instead of actual temperature readings , the IPCC report and Summary missed both a major cooling period as well as a significant warming trend during that millennium . '' Karlén has also criticized the mainstream media for `` spreading the exaggerated views of a human impact on climate . '' He was also named in a 2007 minority report of the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee as one of 400 `` prominent scientists '' who were said to dispute global warming . In 2010 , he predicted that natural climate changes , caused to a large degree by the sun 's activity , would more likely make the climate colder than warmer in the next decades .   He is a contributing author to the Fraser Institute 2007 Independent Summary for Policymakers .   Karlén is a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences .

negative: Snow in Florida It is very rare for snow to fall in the U.S. state of Florida , especially in the central and southern portions of the state . With the exception of the far northern areas of the state and the Jacksonville area , most of the major cities of Florida have never recorded measurable snowfall , have only recorded trace ( T ) amounts , or have only reported flurries in the air , usually just a few times each century . In the Florida Keys and Key West there is no known occurrence of snow flurries since the settlement of the region .   Due to Florida 's low latitude and subtropical climate , temperatures cold enough to support significant snowfall are infrequent and their duration is fleeting . In general , frost is more common than snow , requiring temperatures of 32 ° F ( 0 ° C ) or less at 2 m above sea level , a cloudless sky , and a relative humidity of 65 % or more . Generally , for snow to occur , the polar jet stream must move southward through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico , with a stalled cold front across the southern portion of the state curving northeastward to combine freezing air into the frontal clouds . While light snowfall occurs a few times each decade across the northern panhandle , most of the state is too far south of the cold continental air masses responsible for generating snowfall in the rest of the country . The mean maximum monthly snowfall in most parts of Florida is zero . The only other areas in the continental United States with this distinction are extreme southern Texas and parts of coastal southern California .   Much of the known information on snow in Florida prior to 1900 is from climatological records provided by the National Weather Service meteorological station in Jacksonville , and information for other locations is sparse . The earliest recorded instance of snow in Florida occurred in 1774 ; being unaccustomed to snow , some Jacksonville residents called it `` extraordinary white rain . '' The first White Christmas in northeastern Florida 's history resulted from a snow event that occurred on December 23 , 1989 .

negative: Cold start (automotive) A cold start is an attempt to start a vehicle 's engine when it is cold , relative to its normal operating temperature , often due to normal cold weather . A cold start situation is commonplace , as weather conditions in most climates will naturally be at a lower temperature than the typical operating temperature of an engine . Occasionally , the term also refers to starting the engine of a vehicle that has been inactive or abandoned for a significant amount of time such as months , years or even decades .

negative: Meteorograph Meteorograph may be one of the following :   Meteogram a graphical presentation of weather variables with respect to time  Barograph a pressure recording device  Thermo-hygrograph a pressure and temperature recording device

negative: Thermoreceptor A thermoreceptor is a non-specialised sense receptor , or more accurately the receptive portion of a sensory neuron , that codes absolute and relative changes in temperature , primarily within the innocuous range . In the mammalian peripheral nervous system , warmth receptors are thought to be unmyelinated C-fibres ( low conduction velocity ) , while those responding to cold have both C-fibers and thinly myelinated A delta fibers ( faster conduction velocity ) . The adequate stimulus for a warm receptor is warming , which results in an increase in their action potential discharge rate . Cooling results in a decrease in warm receptor discharge rate . For cold receptors their firing rate increases during cooling and decreases during warming . Some cold receptors also respond with a brief action potential discharge to high temperatures , i.e. typically above 45 ° C , and this is known as a paradoxical response to heat . The mechanism responsible for this behavior has not been determined .   In humans , temperature sensation enters the spinal cord along the axons of Lissauer 's tract that synapse on second order neurons in grey matter of the dorsal horn , one or two vertebral levels up . The axons of these second order neurons then decussate , joining the spinothalamic tract as they ascend to neurons in the ventral posterolateral nucleus of the thalamus .

negative: Climate of North Dakota North Dakota 's climate is typical of a continental climate with cold winters and warm-hot summers . The state 's location in the Upper Midwest allows it to experience some of the widest variety of weather in the United States , and each of the four seasons has its own distinct characteristics . The eastern half of the state has a humid continental climate ( Köppen climate classification Dfb ) with warm to hot , somewhat humid summers and cold , windy winters , while the western half has a semi-arid climate ( Köppen climate classification BSk ) with less precipitation and less humidity but similar temperature profiles . The areas east of the Missouri River get slightly colder winters , while those west of the stream get higher summer daytime temperatures . In general , the diurnal temperature difference is prone to be more significant in the west due to higher elevation and less humidity .

negative: Climate of Buenos Aires Buenos Aires , the capital of Argentina , has a temperate climate , which is classified as a humid subtropical climate ( Cfa ) under the Köppen climate classification with four distinct seasons . Summers are hot and humid with frequent thunderstorms while winters are cool and drier with frosts that occurs on average twice per year . Spring and fall are transition seasons characterized by changeable weather . At the central observatory , the highest recorded temperature is 43.3 C while the lowest recorded temperature is -5.4 C.   Different climatic factors influence the climate of Buenos Aires . The semi -- permanent South Atlantic High influences its climate throughout the year by bringing in moist winds from the northeast , which bring most of the precipitation to the city in the form of frontal systems during winter or storms produced by cyclogenesis in autumn and winter . The hot temperatures and high insolation in the summer months form a low pressure system called the Chaco Low over northern Argentina , generating a pressure gradient that brings moist easterly winds to the city -- because of this , summer is the rainiest season . In contrast , this low pressure system weakens in the winter , which combined with strong southerly winds results in a drier season due to weaker easterly winds . Being located in the Pampas , Buenos Aires has variable weather due to the passage of contrasting air mass -- the cold , dry Pampero from the south and warm , humid tropical air from the north . The coastal location results in a strong maritime influence , causing extreme temperatures ( hot or cold ) to be rare .

negative: Spring 2011 United Kingdom heat wave The Spring of 2011 in the United Kingdom was exceptional for the warm weather which occurred during April and the dry weather which was persistent during March and April in certain parts of the UK . April was statistically the warmest and driest in the country since records began in 1910 . There was a contrast between north-western parts of the UK which received substantial amounts of rainfall and south-eastern parts which received very little . As lack of rainfall continued in many parts during May , concerns arose that the country could submit to drought .   High pressure was the cause for the warm , dry weather experienced during April . A high temperature of 27.8 ° C was recorded on 23 April at Wisley , Surrey , the highest temperature recorded in April in the UK since 1949 . Thus , the Central England Temperature for the month was 3.7 ° C above the 1971-2000 average , and daily maximum temperatures were up to 6 ° C higher than average .

negative: Weather front A weather ( state of atmosphere ) front is a boundary separating two masses of air of different densities , and is the principal cause of meteorological phenomena outside the tropics . In surface weather analyses , fronts are depicted using various colored triangles and half-circles , depending on the type of front . The air masses separated by a front usually differ in temperature and humidity .  Cold fronts may feature narrow bands of thunderstorms and severe weather , and may on occasion be preceded by squall lines or dry lines . Warm fronts are usually preceded by stratiform precipitation and fog . The weather usually clears quickly after a front 's passage . Some fronts produce no precipitation and little cloudiness , although there is invariably a wind shift .   Cold fronts and occluded fronts generally move from west to east , while warm fronts move poleward . Because of the greater density of air in their wake , cold fronts and cold occlusions move faster than warm fronts and warm occlusions . Mountains and warm bodies of water can slow the movement of fronts . When a front becomes stationary , and the density contrast across the frontal boundary vanishes , the front can degenerate into a line which separates regions of differing wind velocity , known as a shearline . This is most common over the open ocean .

negative: Climate of Moscow Moscow has a humid continental climate ( Köppen climate classification Dfb ) with warm , sometimes hot , somewhat humid summers and long , cold winters .  Typical high temperatures in the warm months of June , July and August are around 23 ° C , but during heat waves , which can occur anytime from May to September , daytime temperature highs often top 30 ° C for sometimes one or two weeks . In the winter , temperatures normally drop to approximately -10 ° C , though there can be periods of warmth with temperatures rising above 0 ° C. Summer lasts from mid-May to the beginning of September . Winter lasts from the beginning of November to the end of March .

negative: Climate of the Arctic The climate of the Arctic is characterized by long , cold winters and short , cool summers . There is a large amount of variability in climate across the Arctic , but all regions experience extremes of solar radiation in both summer and winter . Some parts of the Arctic are covered by ice ( sea ice , glacial ice , or snow ) year-round , and nearly all parts of the Arctic experience long periods with some form of ice on the surface . Average January temperatures range from about − 34 ° C to 0 ° C ( − 40 to +32 ° F ) , and winter temperatures can drop below − 50 ° C ( − 58 ° F ) over large parts of the Arctic . Average July temperatures range from about − 10 to +10 ° C ( 14 to 50 ° F ) , with some land areas occasionally exceeding 30 ° C ( 86 ° F ) in summer .   The Arctic consists of ocean that is largely surrounded by land . As such , the climate of much of the Arctic is moderated by the ocean water , which can never have a temperature below − 2 ° C ( 28 ° F ) . In winter , this relatively warm water , even though covered by the polar ice pack , keeps the North Pole from being the coldest place in the Northern Hemisphere , and it is also part of the reason that Antarctica is so much colder than the Arctic . In summer , the presence of the nearby water keeps coastal areas from warming as much as they might otherwise .

negative: March 2012 North American heat wave In March 2012 , one of the greatest heat waves was observed in many regions of North America . Very warm air pushed northward west of the Great Lakes region , and subsequently spread eastward . The intense poleward air mass movement was propelled by an unusually intense low level southerly jet that stretched from Louisiana to western Wisconsin . Once this warm surge inundated the area , a remarkably prolonged period of record setting temperatures ensued .   NOAA 's National Climate Data Center reported that over 7,000 daily record high temperatures were tied or broken from 1 March through 27 March . In some places the temperature exceeded 86 ° F ( 30 ° C ) . For instance , in Grand Rapids , Michigan , the highest temperature recorded was 87 ° F on March 21 ; in Chicago a high of 87 ° F was also recorded on that same day . Records were broken in unusual ways . Chicago , for example , saw temperatures above 80 ° F every day between March 14 -- 18 , breaking records on all five days . Chicago would go on to record eight days at or above 80 ° F during the month , with many suburban areas recording an additional day in the 80s on March 19 ( that day , the city only tied its record high of 78 ° F ) . In context , the National Weather Service 's Chicago branch noted that Chicago typically averages only one day in the 80 's in April . And only once in 140 years of weather observations has April produced as many 80 ° F days as this March . In Traverse City , Michigan one day began with a low temperature ( 67 ° F ) higher than the previous record high for the day .   Temperature records across much of southern Canada also were shattered . Some of the most impressive readings came from Nova Scotia on March 22 , when the mercury climbed to 30.0 C at a climate station in Lake Major , making it the highest March temperature recorded in Nova Scotia , and the third highest March temperature recorded in Canada . That same day , the temperature hit 29.2 C at Western Head , Nova Scotia . The heat reached as far east as Cape Breton Island , with the temperature climbing to 24.0 C at Sydney , Nova Scotia on March 22 , a place historically surrounded by ice-jammed waters , frigid winds , and snow in March . The week of March 18 also set record temperatures in Manitoba and much of Ontario as well as into the Maritime Provinces . Non-severe thunderstorms were reported on the evening hours of March 21 , through to the early morning hours March 22 into northern Ontario .   In addition , NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data show that the atmospheric pattern was so persistent that much of the Midwest and Northeast , and up into Ontario , had temperature departures over periods of several days to a week or more of magnitudes which would be unusual even for a single day . Averaged over the seven-day period from March 16 to March 22 inclusive , nearly the entire area of the Midwest and Northeast U.S. and most of Ontario and Quebec had temperatures 10 ° C ( 18 ° F ) or more above the 1981-2010 average . Even more dramatically , most of Iowa and Minnesota , all of Wisconsin and Michigan , and most of southeastern Ontario had seven-day mean temperatures more than 15 ° C ( 27 ° F ) above the climatological average for the same period .   An 84 ° F high at Madison , WI in early March was 43 ° F above average and followed an overnight low of 60 ° F , 35 degrees above normal the daily high being more than seven standard deviations above the mean . The absolute temperature and departure statistically would be equivalent to a mid-July high at that station in excess of 125 ° F or more ; the highest temperature recorded there was 107 ° at least once during the heat waves of the middle 1930s .   This mild warm spell brought out spring peepers in northern Ontario on 23 March , which are usually not heard until mid-to-late April , or sometimes early May .   The warm weather was also responsible for several early-season tornado touchdowns , such as the EF3 that struck Dexter , Michigan , near Ann Arbor .

negative: List of extreme temperatures in Canada In various locations in Canada , extreme temperatures are often recorded . Here is a list of 15 extreme hot and cold temperature recorded in Canada for the past 120 years , not necessarily the hottest or coldest 15 but some are shown for selected cities or regions , ( e.g. Toronto ) . These are officially recognized extreme temperatures by Environment Canada .

negative: Winter of 2010–11 in Great Britain and Ireland The winter of 2010 -- 2011 was a weather event that brought heavy snowfalls , record low temperatures , travel chaos and school disruption to the islands of Britain and Ireland . It included the UK 's coldest December since Met Office records began in 1910 , with a mean temperature of -1 ° C , breaking the previous record of 0.1 ° C in December 1981 . Also it was the second-coldest December in the narrower Central England Temperature ( CET ) record series which began in 1659 , falling 0.1 ° C short of the all-time record set in 1890 .   The winter of 2010 in England saw the earliest widespread winter snowfall since 1993 with snow falling as early as 24 November across Northumberland and North Yorkshire . A maximum snow depth of 30 in was recorded on 1 December in the Peak District , Sheffield , the Cotswold Hills and the Forest of Dean . In this event Scotland and Northern England were most severely affected . On 9 December temperatures recovered across much of the UK , causing a partial thaw .   Later , on Thursday 16 December a cold front reintroduced a cold , arctic airstream . This cold spell brought further snow and ice chaos back to the British Isles with Southern England , Wales , the Republic of Ireland ( excluding the westerly coastal regions ) and Northern Ireland bearing the brunt of the wintry conditions . This led to severe disruption to the road and rail network with several airports being closed including London Heathrow Airport for a time . Several local temperature records were broken including a new record low for Northern Ireland of -18.7 ° C recorded at Castlederg on 23 December 2010 .   By the new year a thaw had begun , and there was no recurrence of the extreme conditions for the remainder of the winter . There was some snowfall in early January , and there was an anticyclonic spell at the end of the month that brought some cold , frosty days . February was above average in temperature and ended on a mild note , although the snow returned in much of Scotland during March .

negative: 1997–98 El Niño event The 1997 -- 98 El Niño was regarded as one of the most powerful El Niño -- Southern Oscillation events in recorded history , resulting in widespread droughts , flooding and other natural disasters across the globe . It caused an estimated 16 % of the world 's reef systems to die , and temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 ° C , compared to the usual increase of 0.25 ° C associated with El Niño events .   It led to a severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever after extreme rainfall in north-eastern Kenya and southern Somalia . It also led to record rainfalls in California during the water season of 1997 -- 98 and one of Indonesia 's worst droughts on record . 1998 ultimately became the warmest year in recorded history ( up until then ) .

negative: Climate of Sydney The climate of Sydney is humid subtropical ( Köppen Cfa ) , shifting from mild and cool in winter to warm and hot in the summer , with no extreme seasonal differences as the weather is moderated by proximity to the ocean . More contrasting temperatures are recorded in the inland western suburbs . Rainfall is spread evenly throughout the year , though it is generally highest between February and June . Precipitation varies across the region , with areas adjacent to the coast being the wettest .   Sydney has 103.9 clear days annually , with the monthly percent possible sunshine ranging from 53 % in January to 72 % in August . The city receives around 20 thunderstorms per year . Sydney 's heat is usually dry when temperatures soar over 35 C . In some hot days , low pressure troughs would increase humidity and southerly busters would decrease temperatures . In late autumn and winter , east coast lows can bring large amounts of rainfall .   Sydney experiences an urban heat island effect , making certain parts of the city more vulnerable to extreme heat , particularly the west . Efforts have been introduced to investigate and mitigate this heat effect , including increasing shade from tree canopies , adding rooftop gardens to high rise structures and changing pavement colour . The El Niño Southern Oscillation plays an important role in determining Sydney 's weather patterns : drought and bushfire on the one hand , and storms and flooding on the other . Sydney is prone to heat waves and drought , which have become more common in recent years .

negative: Warm Mouse Warm Mouse or Heated Mouse is a two-button USB wheeled optical mouse developed by ValueRays . It uses an internal carbon heating element to produce a low volume of far-infrared heat . The level of warmth produced is adjustable to provide a low to high level of heat via an inline switch located on the USB power cable .   The device is intended for people working in cold environments who wish to keep their mouse hand warm while using the computer .

negative: World So Cold (Mudvayne song) `` World So Cold '' is the final single from group Mudvayne 's second record The End of All Things to Come . The song is very different from the rest of the band 's work , being much more mellow while building intensity during the song 's bridge and ending . Its lyrics take on a saddened and deeply personal tone in their sense of resentment toward society .

negative: Temperature record of the past 1000 years For information on the description of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in various IPCC reports see MWP and LIA in IPCC reportsThe temperature record of the past 1,000 years is reconstructed using data from climate proxy records in conjunction with the modern instrumental temperature record which only covers the last 150 years at a global scale . Large-scale reconstructions covering part or all of the 1st millennium and 2nd millennium have shown that recent temperatures are exceptional : the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of 2007 concluded that `` Average Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the second half of the 20th century were very likely higher than during any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely '' the highest in at least the past 1,300 years . '' The curve shown in graphs of these reconstructions is widely known as the hockey stick graph because of the sharp increase in temperatures during the last century . As of 2010 this broad pattern was supported by more than two dozen reconstructions , using various statistical methods and combinations of proxy records , with variations in how flat the pre-20th-century `` shaft '' appears . Sparseness of proxy records results in considerable uncertainty for earlier periods .   Individual proxy records , such as tree ring widths and densities used in dendroclimatology , are calibrated against the instrumental record for the period of overlap . Networks of such records are used to reconstruct past temperatures for regions : tree ring proxies have been used to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere extratropical temperatures ( within the tropics trees do not form rings ) but are confined to land areas and are scarce in the Southern Hemisphere which is largely ocean . Wider coverage is provided by multiproxy reconstructions , incorporating proxies such as lake sediments , ice cores and corals which are found in different regions , and using statistical methods to relate these sparser proxies to the greater numbers of tree ring records . The `` Composite Plus Scaling '' ( CPS ) method is widely used for large-scale multiproxy reconstructions of hemispheric or global average temperatures ; this is complemented by Climate Field Reconstruction ( CFR ) methods which show how climate patterns have developed over large spatial areas , making the reconstruction useful for investigating natural variability and long-term oscillations as well as for comparisons with patterns produced by climate models .   During the 1,900 years before the 20th century , it is likely that the next warmest period was from 950 to 1100 , with peaks at different times in different regions . This has been called the Medieval Warm Period , and some evidence suggests widespread cooler conditions during a period around the 17th century known as the Little Ice Age . In the hockey stick controversy , contrarians have asserted that the Medieval Warm Period was warmer than at present , and have disputed the data and methods of climate reconstructions .

negative: Climate of Antarctica The climate of Antarctica is the coldest on Earth . Antarctica 's lowest air temperature record was set on 21 July 1983 , with − 89.2 C at Vostok Station . Satellite measurements have identified even lower ground temperatures , down to − 93.2 C at the cloud free East Antarctic Plateau on 10 August 2010 . It is also extremely dry ( technically a desert ) , averaging 166 mm of precipitation per year . On most parts of the continent the snow rarely melts and is eventually compressed to become the glacier ice that makes up the ice sheet . Weather fronts rarely penetrate far into the continent , because of the katabatic winds . Most of Antarctica has an ice cap climate ( Köppen EF ) with very cold , generally extremely dry weather .

negative: Siner, Chuvash Republic Seener is a rural locality ( a village ) in Alikovsky District of the Chuvash Republic , Russia , located near the district 's administrative center of Alikovo and near the Cheboksary -- Alikovo -- Krasnye Chetai and Cheboksary -- Alikovo -- Yadrin auto routes . The population is 135 , mostly Chuvash females ; it was 248 , 224 and 156 in 1926 , 1907 and 1859 , respectively .   Two small rivers -- the Abashyrma and Khelkassy -- flow in the vicinity of the village . The village only has one street ( Kooperativnaya ) .   The climate is moderately continental , with long cold winters and warm summers . Average January temperature is -12.9 ° C , average July temperature -- 18.3 ° C. Absolute recorded minimum temperature is -44 ° C , while the absolute recorded maximum is 37 ° C. Annual average precipitation is 552 mm .

negative: Thalpotentiginy Thalpotentiginy is a psychological term applied to sexual arousal from heat or even warm weather . It is derived from the Greek thalpos meaning `` warmth '' and the Latin tentigo meaning `` lust , or passion . ''

negative: Ukiah, Oregon Ukiah is a city in Umatilla County , Oregon , United States . The population was 186 at the 2010 census . It is part of the Pendleton -- Hermiston Micropolitan Statistical Area . It was named by an early settler after the town of Ukiah , California .   Ukiah is tied with Seneca , in Grant County , for the coldest official temperature in Oregon . Ukiah dropped to -54 F on February 9 , 1933 , during a major cold snap across Siberia and North America . On February 10 , Seneca also hit − 54 ° F , so the National Weather Service gives Seneca the record because it had the most recent occurrence of that temperature .

negative: Winter of 2009–10 in Great Britain and Ireland The winter of 2009 -- 10 in the United Kingdom ( also called The Big Freeze by British media ) was a meteorological event that started on 16 December 2009 , as part of the severe winter weather in Europe . January 2010 was provisionally the coldest January since 1987 across the country . A persistent pattern of cold northerly and easterly winds brought cold , moist air to the United Kingdom with many snow showers , fronts and polar lows bringing snowy weather with it .   The first snowfall began on 17 December 2009 , before a respite over the Christmas period . The most severe snowy weather began on 5 January in North West England and west Scotland with temperatures hitting a low of -17.6 ° C in Greater Manchester , England . The snow spread to Southern England on 6 January and by 7 January the United Kingdom was blanketed in snow , which was captured by NASA 's Terra satellite . The thaw came a week later , as temperatures started to increase .   The winter weather brought widespread transport disruption , school closures , power failures , the postponement of sporting events and 25 deaths . A low of -22.3 ° C was recorded in Altnaharra , Scotland on 8 January 2010 . Overall it was the coldest winter since 1978 -- 79 , with a mean temperature of 1.5 ° C.

negative: Remote Sensing Systems Remote Sensing Systems ( RSS ) is a private research company founded in 1974 by Frank Wentz . It processes microwave data from a variety of NASA satellites . Most of their research is supported by the Earth Science Enterprise program . The company is based in Santa Rosa , California .   They are a widely cited source of data , on the satellite temperature record . Their data is one source of evidence for global warming . Research by Carl Mears , Matthias Schabel , and Wentz , all of RSS , highlighted errors in the early satellite temperature records compiled by John Christy and Roy Spencer at UAH . The UAH data had previously showed no significant temperature trend , bringing the derived satellite data into closer agreement with surface temperature trends , radiosonde data and computer models . The UAH data is now closer to the RSS data but differences remain , for example the Lower Troposphere global average trend since 1979 , RSS currently have +0.133 K/decade while UAH have 0.140 K/decade , while the mid troposphere difference is even more marked at 0.079 K/decade and 0.052 K/decade respectively . However , in a recent online YouTube video , Dr. Carl Mears , a senior scientist with the team behind the satellite data , explained how he believes his data set needed correction .  I would have to say that the surface data seems that it 's more accurate , because a number of groups analyze the surface data , including some who set out to prove the other ones wrong , and they all get more or less the same answer .

negative: Calefactory The calefactory ( also warming house ) was an important room or building in a medieval monastery in Western Europe . It was here that a communal fire was kept so that the monks could warm themselves after long hours of study in the ( unheated ) cloister or other work . In the early Middle Ages this was one of the few heated rooms in the monastery - the others being the infirmary , the guest house and the kitchen - but this policy was generally relaxed , save for a few very strict orders , by the latter part of the mediaeval period when fireplaces became common throughout the claustral buildings .   The warming house was always one of the buildings surrounding the cloister and was entered from it . Often it was located close to the refectory so that the warmth could be shared by the monks when they were eating . In many monasteries an upper floor was built over the warming house that served as the muniment room , where the house 's charters , deeds and other legal documents were kept safe from damp .

negative: Winter of 2010–11 in Europe The winter of 2010 -- 2011 in Europe began with an unusually cold November caused by a cold weather cycle that started in southern Scandinavia and subsequently moved south and west over both Belgium and the Netherlands on 25 November and into the west of Scotland and north east England on 26 November . This was due to a low pressure zone in the Baltics , with a high pressure over Greenland on 24 November .   From 22 November 2010 , cold conditions arrived in the United Kingdom , as a cold northerly wind developed and snow began to fall in northern and eastern parts , causing disruption . The winter arrived particularly early for the European climate , with temperatures dropping significantly lower than previous lows for the month of November . On 28 November , Wales recorded its lowest-ever November temperature of -17.3 C in Llysdinam , and Northern Ireland recorded its lowest ever November temperature of -9.5 C in Lough Rea . The UK Met Office issued severe-weather warnings for heavy snow for eastern Scotland and the north-east of England .   From January , temperatures were more normal .