thank you and this is a very interesting topic and it's one that has become much more active in recent years as we've, we've adopted these two, these two terms, black swans being something that was brought up by Nicholas Nassim Taleb in his book of that title around the mid 2000s, and then a little further back in that was, the concept of Perfect Storm was brought up in a book by Sebastian Junger I think maybe in the late 90's. 