If you were a jockey, how would you like to be in Mike Smith’s position?
Do you choose to ride McKinzie, who’s won three of four starts and sits first or second on most Kentucky Derby lists?
Or do you opt for the up-and-coming Justify, who’s won his first two starts by a combined 16 lengths and recorded Beyer Speed Figures of more than 100 in both races?
Not even American Pharoah had Beyers of 100-plus in the first two races of his storied career.
Smith is on record as saying he’ll wait to decide. He wants to see Justify face the same type of competition McKinzie has faced before he’s ready to anoint him as the next great 3-year-old.
Not to say the Hall of Fame rider wasn’t duly impressed after guiding Justify to a 6 1/2-length victory in a first-level allowance race Sunday at Santa Anita.
“That was extremely impressive,” Smith told Mike Willman of Santa Anita publicity after the Scat Daddy colt passed the two-turn test by running a mile in 1:35.73 after sitting third much of the way through early fractions of 22.42, 45.10 and 1:09.64.
The way Justify won was important. He proved he’s not just a speed freak after winning his debut by 9 1/2 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion while setting scorching splits of 21.40 and 44.10 on Feb. 18.
“He passed the two-turn test with flying colors,” Smith said. “For a young horse, he has a great mind. That might allow him to catch up (on the Derby trail) even sooner than a normal horse because of the talent and the mind to go with it.”
There’s no question Justify could be a freak. Only one horse, Apollo in 1882, has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. Justify has the talent to do what no horse has done in 136 years.
But we’re going to wait before we put him in our Kentucky Derby top five. For now, he heads our second five with the chance to fly to the top very quickly. Like Smith, we want to see him beat some other Derby contenders.
Our latest Kentucky Derby rankings:
1. Bolt d’Oro
He stays atop the heap because he performed so well in the San Felipe Stakes despite a long layoff and an injury that delayed his 3-year-old debut.
Next up is the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
2. McKinzie
The Street Sense colt showed his grit by battling back along the rail when it looked like Bolt d’Oro would zoom on by at the head of the stretch.
Only trainer Bob Baffert knows where he’ll have his final Derby prep, but don’t expect both Justify and McKinzie to stay home and run in the Santa Anita Derby.
3. Solomini
This talented guy is set to make his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday for the connections of Baffert and part owner Ahmed Zayat. Sound familiar? Horse by the name of American Pharoah did the same thing in 2015.
4. Good Magic
We’ll give him a pass for his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It was his first start since his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and he didn’t quit in the final sixteenth of a mile. He was still running to the end.
It looks like the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 will be the Curlin colt’s final Derby prep.
5. Audible
The son of Into Mischief will try to follow his impressive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes with a win in the Florida Derby on March 31. He’s good enough to give trainer Todd Pletcher his second consecutive Derby victory and third overall.
Others on the outside of our top five and looking in include Justify, Enticed, Promises Fulfilled, Flameaway and Sporting Chance.
If you were a jockey how would you like to be in Mike Smith’s position Do you choose to ride McKinzie who’s won three of four starts and sits first or second on most Kentucky Derby lists Or do you opt for the up-and-coming Justify who’s won his first two starts by a combined 16 lengths and recorded Beyer Speed Figures of more than 100 in both races Not even American Pharoah had Beyers of 100-plus in the first two races of his storied career Smith is on record as saying he’ll wait to decide He wants to see Justify face the same type of competition McKinzie has faced before he’s ready to anoint him as the next great 3-year-old Not to say the Hall of Fame rider wasn’t duly impressed after guiding Justify to a 6 1/2-length victory in a first-level allowance race Sunday at Santa Anita That was extremely impressive Smith told Mike Willman of Santa Anita publicity after the Scat Daddy colt passed the two-turn test by running a mile in 1:35.73 after sitting third much of the way through early fractions of 22.42 45.10 and 1:09.64 The way Justify won was important He proved he’s not just a speed freak after winning his debut by 9 1/2 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion while setting scorching splits of 21.40 and 44.10 on Feb. 18 He passed the two-turn test with flying colors Smith said For a young horse he has a great mind That might allow him to catch up on the Derby trail even sooner than a normal horse because of the talent and the mind to go with it There’s no question Justify could be a freak Only one horse Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old Justify has the talent to do what no horse has done in 136 years But we’re going to wait before we put him in our Kentucky Derby top five For now he heads our second five with the chance to fly to the top very quickly Like Smith we want to see him beat some other Derby contenders Our latest Kentucky Derby rankings 1 Bolt d’Oro He stays atop the heap because he performed so well in the San Felipe Stakes despite a long layoff and an injury that delayed his 3-year-old debut Next up is the Santa Anita Derby on April 7 2 McKinzie The Street Sense colt showed his grit by battling back along the rail when it looked like Bolt d’Oro would zoom on by at the head of the stretch Only trainer Bob Baffert knows where he’ll have his final Derby prep but don’t expect both Justify and McKinzie to stay home and run in the Santa Anita Derby 3 Solomini This talented guy is set to make his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday for the connections of Baffert and part owner Ahmed Zayat Sound familiar Horse by the name of American Pharoah did the same thing in 2015 4 Good Magic We’ll give him a pass for his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park It was his first start since his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and he didn’t quit in the final sixteenth of a mile He was still running to the end It looks like the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 will be the Curlin colt’s final Derby prep 5 Audible The son of Into Mischief will try to follow his impressive victory in the Holy Bull Stakes with a win in the Florida Derby on March 31 He’s good enough to give trainer Todd Pletcher his second consecutive Derby victory and third overall Others on the outside of our top five and looking in include Justify Enticed Promises Fulfilled Flameaway and Sporting Chance