In reality, #Trump knows he's inherited a weak hand with little leverage over Russia - it's winning on the battlefield, the economy is growing (3.6% in 2023, c.4% in 2024), generating trade surpluses and is reducing inflation. Thus, #Trump is creating an ILLUSION of STRENGTH (as any business would in similar circumstances), which will benefit both he and #Putin as they "sell" the terms of a deal to domestic and international audiences. Sanctions on Russia will add to global inflation pressures as it further adds cost to international supply chains, running counter to Trump's agenda to reduce energy costs. 

Currently, #Trump is simultaneously running two tracks to facilitate a negotiation - pressuring both parties while sending positive overtures and handing out talking-points for their respective audiences. For example, he's repeated Kiev propaganda claims of 1 million Russian casualties but didn't forget to make Zelensky uncomfortable by adding Ukraine has lost 700k men.

Most importantly, #Trump acknowledged Russian security concerns over #NATO expansionism as a key cause of an avoidable war. He also didn't mention Ukraine or Russia once in his inauguration speech + signed Executive Orders that send a strong message to Zelensky that the US doesn't see Ukraine as a core strategic interest. According to Trump Jr, #Zelensky tried 3x to get an invite to the inauguration and ridiculed his claims that he was too busy to watch it.

In terms of a Trump-Putin summit, the Russians have responded positively, but official Kremlin statements require substantive diplomatic progress to be made between the US/Russian teams in advance, hence General Kellogg has a key role and is likely to visit Moscow first. The Europeans are unlikely to be involved, at least initially, as they will act to scupper diplomatic efforts. Indeed, the aim of Zelensky, the British, and the #EU is to unwittingly drag the US into a "forever war" to keep US forces in Europe.

Although Trump stated that this mess was of #Biden and #Blinken's Department of War's (as per #NYT) making, he's today responsible for protecting the US's image and his own as "master dealmaker" as he re-focuses US priorities back to its original orthodoxy of running its own sphere of influence/interest. He has publicly called out #Yellen's failed sanctions policies, initiating #dedollarisation and the risk to the US if the trend continues. He added that he prefers tariffs over sanctions, which he would apply only temporarily before removal given the target simply finds workarounds. Marco Rubio grasps the nettle.

The big loser of Project Ukraine is and will be Ukraine, which was led down the primrose path of joining NATO to its eventual economic and military destruction. The only deal acceptable to the Russians will be a permanent new security architecture in Europe/Eurasia (which involves the Chinese); Ukraine restored to neutrality; restoration of Russian language and culture (at least in central and eastern Ukraine); limits on Ukraine's military; no foreign troops; lifting of sanctions and de-nazification (essentially removal of the current regime via elections).
#Trump #Trump