Tobias o22.5 PRA | CZR -120

Jan. 21st Prop #1 | #DetroitBasketball 

Tobias was 4/4 last season vs ATL, averaging 36.5 PRA per meeting, and is 1/1 to kick off this season with 30 PRA. His usage of 19% in that meeting (with Ivey & Cade) is pretty similar to two games last season:
- 43 PR with 22.6% USG w/ Maxey & Embiid
- 34 PR on 20.2% USG w/o Maxey nor Embiid

Both great marks as he is an 80% bet this season with an 18% or higher usage rate. Tobias thrives in Transition, which explains most of his rim production, along with Corner/Above-the-Break. ATL comes in ranking B7 vs all three of those zones/playtypes. Granted, not much that ATL can actually defend.

Hawks now start Onyeka at the C, and all but Trae's defender (Mikal) and Dyson's defender (Brunson) notched at least 11 RA for the Knicks. Expect Ausar/Cade/THJ to take those assignments. Note that Johnson is questionable for tomorrow.

Without Ivey, Tobias has covered in 5/7 games against non-T10 transition teams. He averaged 12.6 FGA in those games. SFs/PFs with that volume (8-15 FGA, his floor and ceiling in Ivey sample) notched these marks vs ATL in the L10 games with both Trae/Johnson:
- Hart 28 PRA (7/12)
- Rui 29 PRA (6-9)
- Scottie 32 PRA (7-12) // Barrett 27 PRA (5-13)
- Highsmith 22 PRA (6-8)
- Randle 39 PRA (6-15)
- Sochan 32 PRA (8-14)
- Giannis 57 PRA (10-15)

Every PF that met Tobias' field goal range covered their lines, all but Highsmith coverd Tobias'. Of course, the key forwards like LeBron, Tatum, Lavine, Giannis soared over just with higher volume than sample.
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