when britain voted to leave the eu scotland fulminated a combination of rising nationalism and strong support for europe led almost immediately to calls for a new independence referendum on nov 3 2017 when the supreme court ruled that devolved national assemblies such as scotland s parliament could not veto brexit the demands grew louder 
on march 13 of that year sturgeon called for a second referendum to be held in the autumn of 2018 or spring of 2019 holyrood backed her by a vote of 69 to 59 on march 28 the day before may s government triggered article 50 sturgeon s preferred timing was significant since the two year countdown initiated by article 50 ended in the spring of 2019 when the politics surrounding brexit could be particularly volatile scotland s economic situation also raised questions about its hypothetical future as an independent country the crash in oil prices dealt a blow to government finances in may 2014 its government forecasted 2015 2016 tax receipts from north sea drilling of 3 4 billion to 9 billion but only collected 60 million less than 1 of the forecasts midpoint in reality these figures were hypothetical since scotland s finances were not and are not fully devolved but the estimates were based on the country s geographical share of north sea drilling so they illustrated what it might expect as an independent nation the debate over what currency an independent scotland would use was revived former snp leader alex salmond who was scotland s first minister until november 2014 told the financial times that the country could abandon the pound and introduce its own currency allowing it to float freely or pegging it to sterling he ruled out joining the euro but others contended that it would be required for scotland to join the eu another possibility would be to use the pound which would mean forfeiting control over monetary policy upsides for someon the other hand a weak currency that floats on global markets can be a boon to u k producers that export goods industries that rely heavily on exports could actually see some benefit in 2023 the top 10 exports from the u k were in u s dollars some sectors were prepared to benefit from the exit multinationals listed on the ftse 100 saw earnings rise as a result of a soft pound a weak currency was also a boon to the tourism energy and service industries in may 2016 the state bank of india india s largest commercial bank suggested that brexit would benefit india economically while leaving the eurozone meant that the u k no longer had unfettered access to europe s single market it would allow for more focus on trade with india india would also have more wiggle room if the u k were no longer under european trade rules and regulations u k eu trade after brexitmay advocated a hard brexit by that she meant that britain should leave the eu s single market and customs union and negotiate a trade deal to govern their future relationship these negotiations would have been conducted during a transition period once a divorce deal was ratified the conservatives poor showing in the june 2017 snap election called popular support for a hard brexit into question many in the press speculated that the government could take a softer line the brexit white paper released in july 2018 revealed plans for a softer brexit it was too soft for many mps in her party and too audacious for the eu the white paper said the government planned to leave the eu single market and customs union however it proposed the creation of a free trade area for goods which would avoid the need for customs and regulatory checks at the border and mean that businesses would not need to complete costly customs declarations and it would enable products to only undergo one set of approvals and authorizations in either market before being sold in both this meant the u k would follow eu single market rules regarding goods the white paper acknowledged that a borderless customs arrangement with the eu one that allowed the u k to negotiate free trade agreements with third countries was broader in scope than any other that exists between the eu and a third country the government was correct that there was no example of this kind of relationship in europe the four broad precedents that existed were the eu s relationship with norway switzerland canada and wto members the first option was for the u k to join norway iceland and lichtenstein in the european economic area eea which provides access to the eu s single market for most goods and services agriculture and fisheries are excluded at the same time the eea is outside the customs union so britain could have entered into trade deals with non eu countries but the arrangement was hardly a win win the u k would be bound by some eu laws while losing its ability to influence those laws through the country s european council and european parliament voting rights in september 2017 may called this arrangement an unacceptable loss of democratic control david davis expressed interest in the norway model in response to a question he received at the u s chamber of commerce in washington it s something we ve thought about but it s not at the top of our list he said he was referring specifically to the european free trade association efta which like the eea offers access to the single market but not the customs union the efta was once a large organization but most of its members left to join the eu today it comprises norway iceland lichtenstein and switzerland all but switzerland are also members of the eea switzerland s relationship with the eu which is governed by around 20 major bilateral pacts with the bloc is broadly similar to the eea arrangement along with these three switzerland is a member of the european free trade association switzerland helped set up the eea but its people rejected membership in a 1992 referendum the country allows the free movement of people and is a member of the passport free schengen area it is subject to many single market rules without having much say in making them it is outside the customs union allowing it to negotiate free trade agreements with third countries usually but not always it has negotiated alongside the eea countries switzerland has access to the single market for goods with the exception of agriculture but not services except insurance it pays a modest amount into the eu s budget brexit supporters who wanted to take back control wouldn t have embraced the concessions that the swiss made on immigration budget payments and single market rules the eu would probably not have wanted a relationship modeled on the swiss example either switzerland s membership in the efta but not the eea and schengen but not the eu is a messy product of the complex history of european integration and not surprisingly a referendum a third option was to negotiate a free trade agreement with the eu along the lines of the comprehensive economic and trade agreement ceta a pact that the eu finalized but didn t fully ratify with canada the most obvious problem with this approach is that the u k had only two years from triggering article 50 to negotiate such a deal the eu refused to discuss a future trading relationship until december of that year at the earliest to give a sense of how tight that timetable was ceta negotiations began in 2009 and concluded in 2014 but just over half of the eu s 28 national parliaments actually ratified the deal persuading the rest could take years even subnational legislatures can stand in the way of a deal the walloon regional parliament which represents fewer than four million mainly french speaking belgians single handedly blocked ceta for a few days in 2016 to extend the two year deadline for leaving the eu britain needed unanimous approval from the eu several u k politicians including chancellor of the exchequer philip hammond stressed the need for a transitional deal of a few years so that among other reasons britain could negotiate eu and third country trade deals but this notion was met with resistance from hardline brexiteers in some ways comparing britain s situation to canada s is misleading canada already enjoys free trade with the u s through the u s mexico canada agreement usmca which was built on the north american free trade agreement nafta this means that a trade deal with the eu was not as crucial as it is for the u k canada s and britain s economies are also very different ceta does not include financial services one of britain s biggest exports to the eu speaking in florence italy in september 2017 may said the u k and eu can do so much better than a ceta style trade agreement since they were beginning from the unprecedented position of sharing a body of rules and regulations she did not elaborate on what much better looked like besides calling on both parties to be creative as well as practical monique ebell formerly of the national institute of economic and social research stressed that even with an agreement in place non tariff barriers were likely to be a significant drag on britain s trade with the eu she expected total u k foreign trade not just flows to and from the eu under an eu u k trade pact she reasoned that free trade deals did not generally handle services trade well services are a major component of britain s international trade the country enjoys a trade surplus in that segment which is not the case for goods free trade deals also struggle to rein in non tariff barriers admittedly britain and the eu started from a unified regulatory scheme but divergences would only multiply post brexit if britain and the eu weren t able to come to an agreement about their relationship they would have had to revert to wto terms but this default solution wouldn t have been straightforward either since britain was a wto member through the eu it would have to split tariff schedules with the bloc and divvy out liabilities arising from ongoing trade disputes trading with the eu on wto terms was the no deal scenario that the conservative government presented as an acceptable fallback though most observers see this as a negotiating tactic in july 2017 u k secretary of state for international trade liam fox said people talk about the wto as if it would be the end of the world but they forget that is how they currently trade with the united states with china with japan with india with the gulf and our trading relationship is strong and healthy but for certain industries the eu s external tariff would have hit hard britain exports 77 of the cars it manufactures and 58 of these go to europe the eu levies 10 tariffs on imported cars monique ebell of the niesr estimated that leaving the eu single market would reduce overall u k goods and services trade not just that with the eu by 22 to 30 nor would the u k only be giving up its trade arrangements with the eu under any of the scenarios above it would probably have lost the trade agreements that the bloc struck with 63 developing countries as well as progress in negotiating other deals replacing these and adding new ones would have been an uncertain prospect in a september 2017 interview with politico fox said his trade office which was formed in july 2016 turned away some developing countries looking to negotiate free trade deals because it lacked the capacity to negotiate fox wanted to roll the terms of existing eu trade deals over into new agreements but some countries were unwilling to give britain 66 million people 2 6 trillion gdp the same terms as the eu excluding britain around 440 million people 13 9 trillion gdp impact on the u s companies in the u s across a wide variety of sectors have made large investments in the u k over many years in fact american corporations have derived 9 of global foreign affiliate profit from the united kingdom since 2000 the u s also hires a lot of brits making u s companies one of the u k s largest job markets the output of u s affiliates in the united kingdom was 129 3 billion in 2021 the united kingdom plays a vital role in corporate america s global infrastructure from assets under management aum to international sales and research and development r d advancements american companies have viewed britain as a strategic gateway to other countries in the european union brexit is believed to jeopardize the affiliate earnings and stock prices of many companies strategically aligned with the united kingdom american companies and investors that have exposure to european banks and credit markets may be affected by credit risk european banks may have to replace 123 billion in securities depending on how the exit unfolds furthermore u k debt may not be included in european banks emergency cash reserves creating liquidity problems european asset backed securities have been in decline since 2007 who s next to leave the eu political wrangling over the eu wasn t limited to britain even following britain s departure most eu members had strong euroskeptic movements that while they struggled to win power at the national level heavily influenced the tenor of national politics in the years that followed there is still a chance that such movements could secure referendums on eu membership in a few countries at some point in the future in may 2016 global research firm ipsos released a report showing that a majority of respondents in italy and france believe their countries should hold a referendum on eu membership the fragile italian banking sector has driven a wedge between the eu and the italian government which provided bailout funds to save mom and pop bondholders from being bailed in as eu rules stipulate the government abandoned its 2019 budget when the eu threatened it with sanctions it lowered its planned budget deficit from 2 5 of gdp to 2 04 matteo salvini the far right head of italy s northern league and the country s deputy prime minister called for a referendum on eu membership hours after the brexit vote saying this vote was a slap in the face for all those who say that europe is their own business and italians don t have to meddle with that the northern league has an ally in the populist five star movement whose founder former comedian beppe grillo called for a referendum on italy s membership in the euro though not the eu the two parties formed a coalition government in 2018 and made giuseppe conte prime minister conte ruled out the possibility of italexit in 2018 during the budget standoff marine le pen the leader of france s euroskeptic national front hailed the brexit vote as a win for nationalism and sovereignty across europe like a lot of french people i m very happy that the u k people held on and made the right choice what we thought was impossible yesterday has now become possible she lost the french presidential election to emmanuel macron in may 2017 gaining just 33 9 of votes he won the election again in 2022 beating le pen once more macron has warned that the demand for frexit will grow if the eu does not see reforms according to a 2020 2022 european social survey poll 16 of french citizens want the country to leave the eu down from 24 3 in a 2016 2017 poll 