what is outcome bias 
outcome bias arises when a decision is based on the outcome of previous events without regard to how the past events developed outcome bias does not involve analysis of factors that lead to a previous event and instead de emphasizes the events preceding the outcomes and overemphasizes the outcome unlike hindsight bias outcome bias does not involve the distortion of past events understanding outcome biasoutcome bias can be more dangerous than hindsight bias in that it only evaluates actual outcomes for example an investor decides to invest in real estate after learning a colleague made a big return on an investment in real estate when interest rates were at a different level rather than look at other factors that could have resulted in the colleague s success such as the health of the overall economy or performance of real estate the investor is focusing on the money made by the colleague gamblers also fall prey to outcome bias while statistically casinos come out ahead far more regularly many gamblers use anecdotal evidence from friends and acquaintances to justify their continued playing this outcome bias that continuing to play could result in winning a large amount of money prevents the gambler from leaving the casino in business settings an overemphasis on performance is increasingly creating an outcome centric culture which often exacerbates people s fears by creating up a zero sum game in which people are either succeeding or losing and winners quickly get weeded out from losers as an example few would argue with the impressive growth of social media companies during this growth only a handful of individuals cautioned against the methods by which growth was generated upon learning personal and private user data was a significant driver of growth the outcome bias of social media is on full display in effect ethical lapses are generally overlooked during successful outcomes however bad outcomes are far more likely to produce active condemnation 