what is the delphi method 
the delphi method is a forecasting process and structured communication framework based on the results of multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts after each round of questionnaires the experts are presented with an aggregated summary of the last round allowing each expert to adjust their answers according to the group response this process combines the benefits of expert analysis with elements of the wisdom of crowds understanding the delphi methodseveral rounds of questionnaires are sent out to the group of experts and the anonymous responses are aggregated and shared with the group after each round the experts are allowed to adjust their answers in subsequent rounds based on how they interpret the group response that has been provided to them since multiple rounds of questions are asked and the panel is told what the group thinks as a whole the delphi method seeks to reach the correct response through consensus the delphi method was originally conceived in the 1950s by olaf helmer and norman dalkey of rand corp the name refers to the oracle of delphi a priestess at the temple of apollo in ancient greece known for her prophecies the delphi method allows experts to work toward a mutual agreement by conducting a circulating series of questionnaires and releasing related feedback to further the discussion with each subsequent round the experts responses shift as rounds are completed based on the information brought forth by other experts participating in the analysis 1the delphi method is a process of arriving at group consensus by providing experts with rounds of questionnaires as well as the group response before each subsequent round delphi method processfirst the group facilitator selects a group of experts based on the topic being examined once all participants are confirmed each member of the group is sent a questionnaire with instructions to comment on each topic based on their personal opinion experience or previous research the questionnaires are returned to the facilitator who groups the comments and prepares copies of the information a copy of the compiled comments is sent to each participant along with the opportunity to comment further at the end of each comment session all questionnaires are returned to the facilitator who decides if another round is necessary or if the results are ready for publishing the questionnaire rounds can be repeated as many times as necessary to achieve a general sense of consensus advantages of the delphi methodthe delphi method seeks to aggregate opinions from a diverse set of experts and it can be done without having to bring everyone together for a physical meeting since the responses of the participants are anonymous individual panelists don t have to worry about repercussions for their opinions the anonymity of the participants also helps prevent the halo effect which sees higher priority given to the views of more powerful or higher ranking members of the group 2by conducting delphi studies consensus can be reached over time as opinions are swayed making the method very effective in contrast with many other types of interviews and focus groups delphi studies allow participants to rethink and refine their opinions based on the input of others contributing to a more reflective and thoughtful process 2disadvantages of the delphi methodalthough it provides the benefits of anonymity and the possibility for reevaluation and reflection the delphi method does not result in the same sort of interactions as a live discussion a live discussion can sometimes produce a better example of consensus as ideas and perceptions are introduced broken down and reassessed response times with the delphi method can be long which slows the rate of discussion it is also possible that the information received back from the experts will provide no innate value the deliberate and drawn out nature of the delphi method also presents some challenges since the method often requires multiple rounds of questionnaires there is a chance that some participants may drop out from the study before it has been completed in addition while there are benefits to giving participants the opportunity to reassess their views there is a chance that they will adjust their responses so that they are more closely aligned with the views of the majority reducing the diversity of opinions represented and diminishing the validity of the results 2applications of the delphi methodlet s take a look at some general examples of when and how the delphi method can be applied this list is not meant to be exhaustive but consider these options real world example of the delphi methodthe objective of one medical study was to develop guidelines for monitoring high risk medications 3 the study aimed to assess the prevalence of laboratory testing as part of the study guidelines an advisory committee of national experts and local leaders employed a two round internet based delphi process to identify key medications that require monitoring the delphi method achieved consensus on the medications to be included in the guidelines within those two rounds the guidelines covered 35 drugs or drug classes and 61 lab tests the findings bring some attention to the fact that despite general agreement on the importance of laboratory monitoring for high risk medications actual monitoring practices are inconsistent therefore the study found that even though there was a positive general consensus towards lab monitoring there was some variability to this alternatives to the delphi methodif the delphi method doesn t quite sound like the methodology for you there are many other similar yet technically different methods below are some alternative examples 