what causes hindsight bias 
hindsight bias occurs when new information comes to light about an experience changing how we recall that experience we selectively remember only the information that confirms what we know or believe to be true then if we feel we already knew what would happen all along we fail to carefully review the outcome or the reason for the outcome hindsight bias involves revising the probability of an outcome after the fact after knowing the outcome people tend to exaggerate the extent of their prediction of the event these biases can be found in just about any situation including predicting the weather or elections hindsight bias is rooted in overconfidence and anchoring after an event occurs we use the knowledge of the outcome as an anchor to attach our prior judgments to the outcome the issue may be partly science based as well hindsight bias might not be tied to only the ineffective processing of information but be rooted in adaptive learning people are susceptible to hindsight bias because it s comforting to think that the world is predictable and thus somewhat orderly as a result we seek to see unpredictable events as predictable we desire a positive view of ourselves and therefore try to make sense of it by creating a story or narrative that shows we knew the outcome 