Global Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses: Predicting Pandemics
Jean‐Paul Gonzalez|Marc Souris|Willy Valdivia-Granda
As successive epidemics have swept the world, scientific community has quickly learned from them about emergence and transmission of communicable diseases. Epidemics usually occur when health systems are unprepared. During an unexpected epidemic, authorities engage in damage control, fear drives action, desire to understand threat is greatest. humanity recovers, policy-makers seek expertise improve their “preparedness” face future events. Global spread disease exemplified by yellow fever Africa Americas, dengue through transcontinental migration mosquitos, relentless influenza virus pandemics, and, most recently, Ebola virus, motorbike long haul carriers. Other pathogens that remarkable for epidemic expansions include arenavirus hemorrhagic fevers hantavirus diseases carried rodents over great geographic distances arthropod-borne viruses (West Nile, chikungunya Zika) enabled ecology vector adaptations. Did we learn past epidemics? Are prepared worst? The ultimate goal develop a resilient global infrastructure. Besides acquiring treatments, vaccines, other preventive medicine, bio-surveillance critical preventing counteracting its spread. So far, only western hemisphere large established monitoring system; however, continue emerge sporadically, particular Southeast Asia South America, illuminating imperfections our surveillance. destabilize fragile governments, ravage vulnerable populations, threaten community. Pandemic risk calculations employ new technologies like computerized maintenance geographical historical datasets, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Next Generation sequencing, Metagenomics trace molecular changes during emergence, mathematical models assess risk. Predictions help pinpoint hot spots populations at risk, under genetic evolution. Preparedness anticipates risks, needs population, capacities infrastructure, sources emergency funding, finally, international partnerships needed manage disaster before it occurs. At present, world intermediate phase trying reduce disparities despite exponential population growth, political conflicts, migration, trade, urbanization, major environmental due warming. For sake humanity, must focus on developing necessary surveillance, preparedness, pandemic response.
Methods in molecular biology|Europe PMC (PubMed Central)|PubMed Central|PubMed