Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
Jason E. Smerdon|Jürg Luterbacher|Steven J. Phipps|Kevin J. Anchukaitis|Toby R. Ault|Sloan Coats|Kim M. Cobb|Benjamin I. Cook|Chris Colose|Thomas Felis|Ailie J. E. Gallant|Johann Jungclaus|B. L. Konecky|Allegra N. LeGrande|Sophie C. Lewis|Alex Lopatka|Wenmin Man|Justin S. Mankin|Justin T. Maxwell|Bette L. Otto‐Bliesner|J. W. Partin|Deepti Singh|Nathan J. Steiger|Samantha Stevenson|Jessica E. Tierney|Davide Zanchettin|Huan Zhang|Alyssa R. Atwood|Laia Andreu‐Hayles|Seung H. Baek|Brendan M. Buckley|Edward R. Cook|Rosanne D’Arrigo|Sylvia Dee|Michael L. Griffiths|Charuta Kulkarni|Yochanan Kushnir|Flavio Lehner|Caroline Leland|Hans W. Linderholm|Atsushi Okazaki|Jonathan Palmer|Eduardo L. Piovano|Christoph C. Raible|Mukund Palat Rao|Jacob Scheff|Gavin A. Schmidt|Richard Seager|Martin Widmann|A. Park Williams|Elena Xoplaki
Abstract. Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, decadal periods drought) limited because a paucity modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe only span parts 20th 21st centuries. Such data coverage insufficient for characterizing its associated dynamics multidecadal centennial variability highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal decadal) hydroclimatic proxies all or Common Era (CE) paleoclimate simulations from climate models therefore important tools augmenting variability. In particular, comparison two sources information critical addressing uncertainties limitations both while enriching each their interpretations. We review principal proxy available reconstructions over CE highlight contemporary how these interpreted as indicators. also last-millennium fully coupled discuss several outstanding challenges with simulating change CE. A specific simulated changes forced by volcanic events provided, discussion expected improvements estimated radiative forcings, models, implementation future. Our model used basis articulating variety considerations best practices perform proxy–model comparisons hydroclimate. This provides framework evaluate using they can better inform interpretations simulations. subsequently explore means constrain characterize future risks. explored specifically context examples demonstrate be quantitatively risks projections.
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