Toward Cliodynamics – an Analytical, Predictive Science of History
Peter Turchin
Author(s): Turchin, Peter | Abstract: This article responds to those who think that a science of history is in principle impossible. First, I tackle the issue prediction and point out it not limited forecasting future. Scientific also (an much more usefully) employed empirical tests scientific theories. Next, switch from conceptual issues, review evidence for general regularities. discuss some recent examples using testing theories about historical dynamics. conlcude by pointing we now have right quantitative tools and, even important, growing corpus data An analytical, predictive history, or cliodynamics, eminently possible.
Cliodynamics|eScholarship (California Digital Library)