The Climate of the Khagan. Observations on palaeo-environmental Factors
  of the History of the Avars (6th-9th century AD)
Johannes Preiser-Kapeller
Based on palaeoenvironmental, historical and archaeological data, the paper proposes possible climatic impacts history of Avar Khaganate, which comprised Carpathian Basin between late 6th early 9th century AD. While establishment Avars in East Central Europe took place within a period characterised by cold dry conditions (recently identified as Late Antique Little Ice Age), more stable parameters may have favoured stabilisation rule after crisis aftermath 626 Data indicates growth settlement agricultural activity up to mid-8th century. These developments did not necessarily strengthen central power, but contributed greater autonomy various groups basis increased resources. The Khaganate quickly disintegrated faced Carolingian advance 790s; last decades documented presence were again accompanied environmental vicissitudes.
arXiv (Cornell University)