Generational Explanation of Long-Term “Billow-Like” Dynamics of Societal Processes
C.A. Mallmann|Guillermo A. Lemarchand
An increasing amount of empirical evidence has accumulated showing the existence several kinds recurrent long-term societal processes. Particular attention was given to 50–60 year billows, usually related economical and technological processes (Kondratieff cycles). These studies generated a large set different theories—intrinsic economy technology—that tried explain process origin. Since last century, scholars have identified even longer billows political (Hegemonic Ferrari The paradigm not always accepted because lack consistent theoretical framework that could account for it. In this article we introduce partially formalized version which contains only one, be determined constant, namely: generational time lag. We show constant is equal life lapse human beings in they are mainly motivated interact with their contextual, social, “habital” call τ, Societal Historical Generation (SHG) conclude, using arguments, its length 39 ± 4 years. A mathematical model temporal diffusion those motivational concerns, agreement all empirically characteristics billow-like processes, presented. solutions first three oscillatory modes following “billow-lengths”: 156 16; 31 3; 17 2 years (with k > 0) 52 5; 22 2; 14 1 < 0). basis anthropo-psycho-epigenetic roots allow emergence collective behavior patterns appearance indicators. interpretation discussion main moods as well other research lines test
Technological Forecasting and Social Change