PMC9247408_01
Observed (officially reported) and expected number of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland during the years 2020 and 2021. We calculate the expected number of cases based on both the hospitalizations-to-cases and deaths-to-cases ratios for the second wave. We assume two certainty rate levels of 50 and 100%.
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We calculate the expected number of cases on a given day t with certainty rate levels of 100 and 50% based on hospitalizations by dividing the number of hospitalizations at t by X and X/2, respectively, as we show in Figure 4. Based on Figure 4, we make three key observations. (1)
Observed and predicted number of COVID-19 cases by our model and other two state-of-the-art models, ICL and IHME. For COVIDHunter, we use CTC environmental condition approaches with two certainty rate levels of (A) 100% and (B) 50%. We show the prediction of COVIDHunter using three mitigation coefficient, M(t), values, each of which is applied from 20 November to 20 December 2021. The predicted plot in a bold black line represents the situation when the mitigation measures applied before the prediction period remain the same.
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We compare the predicted numbers by our model to the observed numbers and those provided by two state-of-the-art models (ICL and IHME), as shown in Figures 5A,B. We use three default configurations for the prediction of the ICL model: (1) strengthening mitigation measures by 50%, (2) maintaining the same mitigation measures, and (3) relaxing mitigation measures by 50% which we refer to as ICL+50%, ICL, and ICL-50%, respectively, in Figure 5. Based on Figures 5A,B we make three key observations. (1) Our model predicts that the peak (the highest number of COVID-19 cases) of the upcoming wave will be on 26 January 2022 (reaching up to 10,000 daily cases) and 31 December 2021 (reaching up to 44,800 daily cases and peaking up to 17 January 2022) for a certainty rate levels of 100% (Figure 5A) and 50% (Figure 5B), respectively, while maintaining the same strength of the current (20 November 2021) mitigation measures for 30 days. Both IHME and ICL models consider that the current number of COVID-19 cases in Switzerland shows a certainty rate level of 50% and the highest number of daily cases will be 10,000, but IHME and ICL models predict the peak of the upcoming wave to be on 26 January 2022 and 16 December 2021, respectively. (2) The number of COVID-19 cases reduces from 10,000 to 200 daily cases and from 44,800 to 2,400 daily cases for a certainty rate levels of 100% (Figure 5A) and 50% (Figure 5B), respectively, within January 2021 if the mitigation measures that are applied nationwide in Switzerland are tightened by 50% [M(t) increases from 0.4 to 0.6 and from 0.3 to 0.5, respectively] for at least 30 days starting from 20 November to 20 December 2021. (3) Relaxing the mitigation measures before at least February 2022 can lead to a significant rise in the number of daily COVID-19 cases, reaching up to 43,500 as predicted by ICL and COVIDHunter (certainty rate levels of 100%) and up to 82,900 daily cases as predicted by COVIDHunter (certainty rate levels of 50%).