title: Survive The Coming Storm - Ebola Crisis: A Prepper's Guide on How To Prepare For A Killer Global Ebola Pandemic and Treat At Home
author:  Ray Gano 
description: Ray &amp; Tracye Gano are the Executive Directors of the web ministries Prophezine and The Servant Warrior. They serve people world wide with a weekly newsletters, daily news updates, community based website, Internet radio shows and You Tube broadcasts. Ray recently released his book "Survive The Coming Storm - Ebola Crisis, a follow up to the best seller "Survive The Coming Storm - The Value of a Preparedness Lifestyle. You can visit his website - Prophezine - by going to http://www.prophezine.com
zlib_text: How lethal is the novel coronavirus, and how many
  undetected cases there are?
  The importance of being tested.
  Ugo Bastolla(1)
  (1) Centro de Biologia Molecular ”Severo Ochoa”
  CSIC-UAM Cantoblanco, 28049 Madrid, Spain. email: ubastolla@cbm.csic.es
  Abstract
  There is big concern for estimating the lethality and the extent of undetected
  infections associated with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 outbreak. While de-
  tailed epidemiological models are certainly needed, I suggest here an orthogonal
  approach based on a minimum number of parameters robustly ﬁtted from the cu-
  mulative data easily accessible for all countries at the John Hopkins University
  database that became the worldwide reference for the pandemics. I show that, af-
  ter few days from the beginning of the outbreak, the apparent death rate can be
  extrapolated to inﬁnite time through regularized regression such as rescaled ridge
  regression. The variation from country to country of these extrapolated death rates
  appears to depend al