TEXT: 1
  :00
  :20
  :40
  :60
  Those Fat Cats in Congress
  It’s a surprise move from Congress. The House passed an accept-
  able health omnibus bill, with a little more pork than you’d like 
  in the other party’s states and some lean funding for priorities 
  you stumped for, but it was good enough. It included improve-
  ments in veteran beneﬁts, which was one of your issues. In the 
  Senate, however, the committee has attached an eleventh hour 
  rider, and it’s poison. Where the bill they got was pretty neutral 
  about abortion, this rider regulates health-care providers on 
  positions you consider matters of personal conscience. Your 
  party is debating vigorously now, but it’s quite possible that 
  you’ll get the bill with the rider intact and either need to sign 
  it or veto it.
  The Senate’s crackling, but the lines are getting drawn. Despite 
  heavy arm twisting and some offers that could come back to 
  haunt the party, your rivals aren’t budging. The options are 
  becoming increasingly clear. 
  1) Quiet Acquiescence: Make a compact with the other side that 
  you sign it without a fuss if they provide some other conces-
  sions and agree not to brag about it afterwards. It’s a loss, but a 
  quiet one, and you at least regain lost territory elsewhere.
  2) Veto Ambush: Make the deal for the concessions and silence, 
  then veto it anyway with huge fanfare and chastise them for 
  delaying the health care of all Americans by turning it into a 
  partisan issue. 
  3) Veto With Mutual Anger: Let them turn this into a big stink, 
  veto the bill, and use your bully pulpit to ensure that they come 
  out stinking worse than you do.
  4) Sign With Visible Regret: Sign the bill under protest, making 
  sure the public knows you’re doing this for cancer research 
  and to fund more treatment for meth babies – funding that’s 
  urgently needed and that the other party risked in order to 
  cater to the most extreme elements of their base.
  The bloggers have caught it from C-SPAN, so option #1 looks 
  sketchier. Certainly this bill is going to swing a big stick with 
  single-issue abortion voters in both parties, whether you pass it 
  or veto it. It might still be possible to minimize its impact on the 
  mainstream, if you catch a lucky break with celebrity news.
  The rider stayed and the bill’s on its way. The most extreme 
  groups on both the pro-choice and pro-life fringes are already 
  sending emails full of overblown and hysterical rhetoric, 
  promising dire consequences at the voting booth and in terms 
  of funding if you do or do not sign it. The world awaits your 
  Presidential decision.
  Outcomes
  1) Quiet Acquiescence: The silent moderates respect you for 
  your compromise, but they’re overwhelmed by the deafening 
  outcry from your own constituency, who feel you betrayed 
  your principles without even a ﬁght.
   
  Conservation: nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism: up
   
  Development: nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget: nil
   
  Military: up  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige: nil
   
  Voter Satisfaction: down  
  Tax Revenue: nil
   
  Health: up
  2) Veto Ambush: Give ‘em hell, Mr. President! The voters like 
  it that you spat in the other side’s eye, and by taking them by 
  surprise you seized the spin initiative and made sure the whole 
  issue played your way. Of course, now they’ll never trust you 
  again. But the important thing is that the uninsured veterans 
  are blaming the other party.
   
  Conservation: nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism: down
   
  Development: nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget: nil
   
  Military: down  
   
   
   
  International Prestige: nil
   
  Voter Satisfaction: up  
   
  Tax Revenue: nil
   
  Health: down
  3) Veto With Mutual Anger: With both sides spinning furiously, 
  a great deal of mud winds up on everyone. Each of you blames 
  the other for politicizing the issue and failing to take care of 
  those meth babies. Surprisingly, the voters blame you both.
   
  Conservation: nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism: down
   
  Development: nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget: nil
   
  Military: down  
   
   
   
  International Prestige: nil
   
  Voter Satisfaction: down  
  Tax Revenue: nil
   
  Health: down
  4) Sign With Visible Regret: Your people feel you sold out. The 
  other side feels you whined and tried to turn a political proﬁt 
  off doing the right thing, by complaining about being forced 
  to do the right thing – that won’t bring any swing votes off the 
  fence. But the veterans are happy, as are a couple well-funded 
  research oncologists.
   
  Conservation: nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism: down
   
  Development: nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget: nil
   
  Military: up  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige: nil
   
  Voter Satisfaction: down  
  Tax Revenue: nil
   
  Health: up
  
  2
  :00
  :20
  Whodunit?
  A well-coordinated terrorist attack has ripped apart an impor-
  tant American city. It delivered a well-designed one-two 
  punch.
  A single initial bomb was exploded in a small airport at the 
  edge of the city. Immediate rumors that it was a “dirty bomb” 
  were corroborated – both radiation and biological materials 
  were released. 
  Just as the initial reaction to this information crested (about 12 
  hours), the event was followed up with a coordinated disruption 
  of medical clinics throughout the area, mainly with simply-
  constructed, conventional bombs set off by cell phones.
  That was yesterday.  Today, you start to get on top of it.
  To understand this scenario, you must understand what a dirty 
  bomb does – the actual human damage is minimal; the radia-
  tion levels are negligible even at ground zero after the passage 
  of very little time, and the biologicals disperse and break down 
  rapidly. What matters is the hysteria that overwhelms the 
  infrastructure. Each person freaking out over a rash is using 
  up medical time and expertise that’s supposed to be going to 
  accident victims and the truly ill. Crimes against medical facili-
  ties (break-ins, mob demands, etc) skyrocket.
  The difﬁcult wrinkle is that a signiﬁcant number of the 
  victims are of Arab ancestry. The targeted clinics in partic-
  ular serve neighborhoods of many people of middle-eastern 
  backgrounds.
  National reactions and poll results provide a familiar, even 
  comfortable context for familiar debate. You as president must 
  negotiate the usual stuff, as follows.
  Options:
  1) impose martial law in the city 
  2) provide massive aid but keep hands-off 
  3) ramp up security in similar target zones 
  4) ramp up overseas military action against a suspected country 
  5) provide believable assurances that the government is on top 
  of the situation 
  6) identify the culprits and ﬁnd them.
   
  The trouble is, you can’t do them all. This emergency is social 
  as well as physical, and dealing with it takes time and a lot of 
  money. Choose compatible options and prioritize them (yes, 
  literally, in order, 1-2-3-etc) based on the advice you’re getting.
  :40
  :60
  The phone rings, and it’s Homeland Security.  There’s a new 
  wrinkle.
  Two very different groups have taken credit for the incident. 
  One of them is an extremist terrorist group with ties to a variety 
  of governments in Arab countries; according to them, they have 
  struck at Arab-Americans whom they consider collaborators 
  and traitors. The other is a band of home-grown fruit loops, 
  recently graduated from crystal meth and gun-running into a 
  well-run strike force. As you might imagine, they claim to be 
  striking pre-emptively at the foreigners who are harboring a 
  ﬁfth column of terrorists.
  Intelligence reports unfortunately cannot settle the issue. They 
  can actually validate each claim in terms of M.O., opportunity, 
  known suspects, and psychological motivation.  Each group is 
  equally plausible.  Neither group has made an undeniable claim. 
  Investigations are ongoing, but the people on the ground are 
  more concerned with damage control than with preserving the 
  evidence trail.
  The polls and blogs are clear: to state that the government 
  cannot tell who did it is political suicide. You have to decide 
  who to ear-tag with responsibility. You have to decide whether 
  to stick to the priorities you chose initially, or whether to revise 
  your policy.
  It’s the crucial moment. What do you do, and whom do you 
  decide to do it to?
  Outcomes
  Did you emphasize direct military and police action?
  Conservation nil  
   
  Centrism down 
  Development down  
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military up  
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction up Tax Revenue down 
  Health down
  Did you emphasize aid and recovery?
  Conservation up  
   
  Centrism up 
  Development up  
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military down 
   
   
  International Prestige up 
  Voter Satisfaction nil Tax Revenue down 
  Health up
  Which group did you choose to identify as the culprit?
  The Arab terrorist internationals
  Conservation down  
  Centrism down 
  Development nil  
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military up  
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction up Tax Revenue up 
  Health down
  
  3
  The American locals
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism up 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military up  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige up 
  Voter Satisfaction down Tax Revenue down 
  Health down
  Combine these two sets of results. An up plus a down results in 
  a nil. An up or down will increase or decrease a nil, respectively. 
  Two ups or two downs count double for points purposes.
  To summarize:
  Did you emphasize direct military and police action, targeting 
  the Arab terrorist internationals?
  The voters initially love it, but the long-term effect is ugly – the 
  military budget spirals up, the political wedge between parties 
  grows and solidiﬁes, and all domestic special interests feel the 
  pinch over the next year. Despite high poll results in the begin-
  ning, the election plans sour, early, and your opponents put aside 
  their internal differences to mount a killer opposition plan.
  Conservation down  
   
  Centrism down 
  Development down  
   
  Balanced Budget double-down 
  Military double-up  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  International Prestige double-down 
  Voter Satisfaction double-up  
  Health double-down
  Did you emphasize direct military and police action targeting 
  the American locals?
  Problems ensue quickly. No one wants to get tough when the 
  target is the guy next door. Political debate becomes inconclu-
  sive both on the Hill and at the polls; no one can ﬁgure out 
  what you’re standing for. Various extremist groups ﬂare up and 
  carry out “actions” of their own. Your party ostracizes you and 
  grooms someone else for the next election.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development down  
   
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military double-up  
   
   
  International Prestige nil 
  Voter Satisfaction nil  
   
  Tax Revenue double-down 
  Health double-down
  Did you emphasize aid and recovery, blaming the Arab terror-
  ist internationals? 
  It’s a toss-up among most respondents, especially politicos and 
  international interests, but voters seem to like it. Domestic 
  recovery seems strong, although the budget is beyond hope 
  – still, no one seems to care. You’ve set a good stage for the next 
  election.  
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development up  
   
   
  Balanced Budget double-down 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige nil 
  Voter Satisfaction up  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  Did you emphasize aid and recovery, blaming the American 
  locals? 
  H’m – personal political suicide, but many domestic and foreign 
  interests are pleased, and your party is strengthened. Despite 
  budget issues, no one in power is directly mad at you, and the 
  problems caused by decreased taxes are far away, to be someone 
  else’s problem. You won’t be able to be elected dog-catcher, 
  though, let alone Pres again.
  Conservation up  
   
   
  Centrism double-up 
  Development up  
   
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige double-up 
  Voter Satisfaction down Tax Revenue double-down 
  Health nil
  
  4
  :00
  :30
  :45
  :55
  The Cavendish Memo
  Mr. President, your former personal secretary (Ms. Doe) -- who 
  you ﬁred last week for gross incompetence -- has disappeared. 
  Reported missing by an aunt in Pittsburgh, PA, her car was 
  found abandoned on Interstate 70, near Clear Spring, MD. 
  According to Doe’s landlord, she was moving back to Pittsburgh 
  and would be staying with the aforementioned aunt. No one 
  has seen or heard a word from Doe in two days.
  The White House IT Director reports that illegal copies were 
  made of your personal correspondence ﬁles two weeks ago, 
  unnoticed due to a recent server glitch. The IT Director has 
  determined the list of copied correspondence contains a poten-
  tially explosive memo.
  The Cavendish Memo is a six month old personal letter from 
  your old college friend, the Cavendish Corporation CEO, 
  suggesting that if certain environmental statutes were relaxed for 
  the corporation, they could build a new factory in Montana. 
  A Cavendish factory would bring in new jobs, cause the 
  local and state tax revenues to increase dramatically, and lead 
  to enhanced economic development throughout the region. 
  Also, Cavendish is known for high worker satisfaction due to 
  its extensive health beneﬁts following your own Presidential 
  Recommendations -- a plank in your election platform.
  At the time, you responded with tentative interest in pursuing 
  further talks about the CEO’s plan. 
  Unfortunately, giving Cavendish a pass on these environmental 
  restrictions would directly violate the new Global Environment 
  Treaty you signed just last month in Oslo.
  The White House phone bank is being swamped with calls 
  from voters about your secretary and the missing ﬁles. The 
  White House Press Corps is demanding a statement. What will 
  you do?
  The Cavendish Corporation Memo has been released to the 
  domestic and foreign media. The White House Press Corps is 
  screaming for a statement. The media and the internet blogs are 
  alive with discussion of Ms. Doe’s disappearance. The public, 
  the media, and the international community demands answers 
  of you, Mr. President.
  Here are your options:
  1) Support the Cavendish Memo: The beneﬁts to the tentative 
  agreement are substantial, even enough to balance the backlash 
  from violating the Global Environment Treaty in this one, 
  isolated case.
  2) Rebuke the Cavendish Memo: Agreeing to the outlined plan 
  is poison now that it’s been widely disseminated; the loss of face 
  in the international community would be tremendous.
  3) Refuse to Comment: The situation is too thorny for intem-
  perate speech; it’s worth putting up with the cries of the public 
  and the media until the whole problem can be unraveled from 
  Ms. Doe’s disappearance.
  4) Start the Spin Machine: Refocus attention on the missing 
  Ms. Doe (possibly trying to paint her as a political operative).
  5) Resign: You’re caught between a rock and a hard place, 
  because the existence of the memo -- and your as-yet 
  unrevealed reply -- is a political and diplomatic ﬁrebomb. Best 
  just to step down.
  The Cavendish Corporation has just issued a statement saying 
  that the CEO’s letter was not a corporate communication, 
  but simply a personal discussion between old college chums. 
  Furthermore, the CEO has resigned from Cavendish.
  Ms. Doe is still missing, but the FBI has some sketchy evidence 
  that connects her to one of your political opponents: she had 
  been seen (after her dismissal) in his company, having a late 
  supper in Georgetown.
  Your Press Secretary has scheduled a press conference for :55.
  Mr. President, copies of the vaguely positive reply you sent to 
  the Cavendish CEO have been issued to the media.
  The Press Conference.
  Do you:
  1) Support the Cavendish Memo?
  2) Rebuke the Cavendish Memo?
  4) Start the Spin Machine?
  3) Refuse to Comment?
  5) Resign?
  Outcomes
  1) Support the Cavendish Memo: The substantial beneﬁts of 
  a new Cavendish Corporation factory in an economically-
  underdeveloped area is important to the well-being of the 
  American Economy. (And to hell with the tree huggers, inter-
  national critics, and conspiracy theorists.) 
  Conservation down  
   
   
  Centrism down 
   
  Development up  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction down  
  Tax Revenue up 
  Health up
  
  5
  2) Rebuke the Cavendish Memo: Better to stand by your word: 
  better for the environment, better for retaining face globally, 
  better overall politically. (Worse for business, though!)
  Conservation up  
   
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development down  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige up 
  Voter Satisfaction up  
   
  Tax Revenue down 
  Health down
  3) Refuse to Comment: This is a private matter than should have 
  never become a public issue.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism down 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction down  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  4) Start the Spin Machine: Ms. Doe is obviously just a polit-
  ical operative for the opposition. Presidents have always been 
  approached by old friends and acquaintances for special favors. 
  To blow this single example – which was answered only out of 
  kindness and friendship – into a political issue is truly a repug-
  nant of political skullduggery.
  Conservation down  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction nil  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  5) Resign: You’ve tarnished not just your own image, but that 
  of your political party and the ofﬁce of the President of the 
  United States. By stepping down, you sacriﬁce yourself for the 
  good of all three.
  Conservation up  
   
   
   
  Centrism up 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige up 
  Voter Satisfaction up  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  ALSO: The Vice President is now the President for the next 
  Crisis!
  
  6
  :60
  :40
  :20
  :10
  :00
  Flown the Coop
  The news has just spilled all over CNN -- the ruling party of 
  Kerzahkastan claims to have captured an American F-36 Joint 
  Strike Fighter. Kerzahkastan is a crumbling former satellite of 
  the Soviet Union which ceased being a blip on America’s radar 
  when they surrendered their last warhead almost ten years ago, 
  but now they’re back in the headlines with a grainy picture of 
  what could be a F-36 JSF on CNN.
  Despite numerous phone calls to the Air Force, no one can 
  give the White House a straight answer on the subject: Do the 
  Kerzahkastanis have a F-36 or not? The reply: We’ll get back to 
  you. The furor over this possible non-event is already reaching 
  a dull roar; even though no one knows if it’s actually happening 
  or not. Events are rapidly taking on a life of their own. As the 
  news piles up, it becomes more and more difﬁcult to tell fantasy 
  from reality.
  Now Wolf Blitzer is ﬂapping his gums about an American pilot 
  on the ground in Kerzahkastan. The story now is that he ﬂew his 
  jet from Turkey and landed it in Kerzahkastan. They’re ﬂashing 
  pictures of some corn-fed schoolboy from Nebraska named 
  Lieutenant William Weeks Jr. -- a snapshot that looks like it was 
  pulled out of a High School yearbook from the 1980s.  There’s 
  no video footage or anything like that; just a grainy cell-phone 
  shot of Weeks’ name painted on the side of the jet (which could 
  be made out of cardboard on some back lot). 
  No answer at the Air Force command -- they’re busy counting 
  pilots and planes. That’s what no one thinks about when they 
  talk about the greatest military power on Earth: all the counting 
  involved. But just then, the red-phone rings.   The Russians 
  want to know if the news is true; and, if so, what America 
  is prepared to do about it. Kerzahkastan and Russia have no 
  love lost between them (which is why the Kerzahkastanis aren’t 
  Russian anymore), and Russia has long had the upper-hand in 
  their numerous border skirmishes. They feel a Mach 3 capable 
  stealth ﬁghter loaded with high-grade weapons could be a 
  disruptive force in the region.
  The Russian Prime Minister wants answers, and he wants them 
  before Wolf Blitzer. The Russians will call back in 30 minutes. 
  What’s your call Mr. President?
  1. Back the Russians: Yes sir, Mister Prime Minister, we’re 
  right there with you. We’ll keep you apprised of the situation. 
  Anything you need.
  2. Neutrality: Well, that certainly sounds bad, but as far as we 
  know now, it’s just not happening. Sorry.
  3. It’s Russia’s Problem: We might have lost the jet, but after 
  that, it ain’t our fault, so back up, buster. 
  4. Wave the Big Stick!: Zip it, or uncle America will have to 
  break out the big guns and then someone’s gonna get hurt. This 
  is none of your business. 
  It’s spreading. TASS and international news organizations have 
  picked up and scattered the story like someone tracking a stain 
  around a house. Still no word from the Air Force except: Yes, 
  we have a Lieutenant William Weeks Jr. and yes he ﬂies a F-36 
  in Turkey, but no, sir, we don’t know where he is right now or 
  if his plane is accounted for. 
  Someone wakes Weeks’ mother up and interviews the woman 
  on TV at 2 in the morning her time. She looks as if she’s still 
  dreaming. The White House Press Secretary is asking for a 
  statement; and he implies that waiting is not an option. What’s 
  the White House have to say on the murky subject?
  The Russians are back on the phone. What’s your answer Mr. 
  President?
  In the meantime, your state department guys have roused the 
  Kerzahkastani ambassador who looks both frightened and 
  ecstatic at the same time. It’s the ﬁrst time he’s ever been in the 
  White House. He knows nothing about any jet, pilot, or situa-
  tion in his country. No, he can’t get the Kerzahkastani Prime 
  Minister on the telephone, he’s on his way to his summer house 
  in Ladogara. 
  You send the Ambassador out of the room while you muster up 
  a plan. What stance do you take Mr. President?
  1. Polite; Polite: So, how’s it going? Have you seen the news? 
  Oh, I know, it’s such a shame.
  2. We Understand You Found Our Plane!: Thanks so much; 
  we’ll just take that back now.
  3. We’re Not Saying You Have Our Plane:  But if you do we 
  want it back.
  4. Get Me My Plane Back, Idiot: Or the Kerzahkastani national 
  dress will involve lead shielding.
  The poor little ambassador comes back in. What’s it going to 
  be?  The decision is yours.
  
  7
  Outcomes
  There were really two intersecting decisions here, your stance 
  with the Russians and your stance towards Kerzahkastan.  Each 
  has separate blowback.  The combined result of those decisions 
  determines the fate of the plane... and its pilot.
  Choices with the Russians
  1) Back the Russians
  Within the hour the Russian minister of Defense is on CNN 
  telling Wolf how the US military is looking to Russia in dealing 
  with the Kerzahkastan problem. Needless to say, the world is 
  uneasy that the US could misplace a jet, the people of the US are 
  not pleased we’re looking to Russia to ﬁx things, and no one’s 
  happy with the military at all. And the jet’s still missing right?
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military down 
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction down Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  2) Neutrality
  Nothing ventured, nothing gained. Or in this case lost. Good 
  move. But what about the damn jet?
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige nil 
  Voter Satisfaction nil  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  3) It’s Russia’s Problem
   The Russians go on alert. America goes on alert. The public is 
  thrilled America doesn’t fool around. 
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military Up  
   
   
   
  International Prestige Up 
  Voter Satisfaction Up  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  4) Wave the Big Stick
  Oh, so it’s that way, is it? Russia complains to the security 
  council; leaks occur. Within minutes you’re ﬁelding phone calls 
  from the UN, Belgium, France, Spain, Norway, Italy, China and 
  Japan. Their overwhelming message -- keep it in your pants; 
  violence won’t solve this. It’s only a matter of hours before 
  college students are protesting out front the White House and 
  you’re being lambasted on Meet the Press.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism up 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military Down  
   
   
  International Prestige Down 
  Voter Satisfaction Down Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  Choices with Kerzahkastan
  1) Polite, Polite
  The Ambassador’s caught by CNN as he goes back to his 
  embassy. He gives a good sound-bite about what a great 
  President you are, and how on top of the problem American 
  seems to be.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military Up  
   
   
   
  International Prestige Up 
  Voter Satisfaction Up  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  2) We Understand You Found Our Plane!
  Oh, of course, we’ll look right into that, the Ambassador 
  politely replies. But isn’t that what your Air Force commander 
  said forty-ﬁve minutes ago?
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military down 
   
   
   
  International Prestige Up 
  Voter Satisfaction nil  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  3) We’re Not Saying You Have Our Plane
  Polite but ﬁrm. Nice. The Ambassador bows and scrapes. Of 
  course he’ll get the Prime Minister on the phone; of course 
  they’ll ﬁnd the plane. The American people are impressed by 
  the footage of you talking the Ambassador leaked to the press 
  by your ever-opportunistic press advisor.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige nil 
  Voter Satisfaction Up  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  4) Get Me My Plane Back, Idiot
  Yeah, we could erase your country in under twenty minutes. 
  We want our jet. Now. It’s kind of like a bull gorilla threatening 
  a chipmunk. The Ambassador ﬂees like the victim in a horror 
  movie. It ain’t pretty.
  Within minutes America’s threats are repeated into a camera. 
  Wolf Blitzer is asking if the President has gone too far. No one 
  seems happy with your decision. 
  Conservation nil  
   
   
  Centrism nil 
  Development nil  
   
   
  Balanced Budget nil 
  Military down 
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction down Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  
  8
  Results with the Plane
  The Prime Minister of Kerzahkastan is ﬁnally on the phone 
  (God knows where your Air Force people are) . His answer is 
  determined by how well you’ve scored, in the two previous 
  choices.
  * +2 International Prestige: Of course we have your plane, we 
  have not touched it and it will be returned to you -- along with 
  its pilot; a very polite man -- immediately.
  * +1 International Prestige: We have your plane and are 
  willing to return it shortly. Of course, we’d like to discuss some 
  economic possibilities.
  * -1 International Prestige: We have your plane -- however, 
  your behavior has enlightened us as to your imperialist motives. 
  You will not get your plane Mr. President.
  * -2 International Prestige: Plane?  What’s a plane?
  
  9
  :00
  :05
  :20
  :40
  Cult Standoff
  It’s day 18 of a Waco-style standoff between armed religious 
  fanatics - an Apocalyptic Christian cult - and law enforce-
  ment. The ATF, the FBI and local police have surrounded 
  the cultists’ compound and have been working to negotiate a 
  peaceful end, but fruitlessly. The cult leader, John Johannes, has 
  promised several times to release the women and children in 
  the compound (many of them his wives and children), but each 
  time has failed to deliver.
  One of the cultists - one of Johannes’ wives - is a Swiss national.
  Eleven days ago, agents of the ATF came under ﬁre from the 
  compound when attempting to execute arrest and search 
  warrants against Johannes. They returned ﬁre. Three ATF 
  agents were killed and 18 were wounded, along with an 
  unknown number of cultists killed and wounded. The cultists 
  have ﬁred occasionally at the agents and ofﬁcers on the scene 
  since then, but there’ve been no casualties and no returned 
  ﬁre. On the morning of the second day, FBI agents in armored 
  vehicles deployed to the compound’s perimeter, where they’ve 
  remained, despite Johannes’ strong objections and an ofﬁcial 
  commitment to a peaceful, negotiated resolution.
  FBI Special Agent Steven Mercer is the on-site commander, 
  overseeing the ATF, local law enforcement, and the FBI’s 
  hostage rescue team and negotiation team. He’s been doing a 
  poor job, it turns out: the various elements have acted without 
  coordination or clear communication. The ATF element has 
  been particularly aggressive, acting to increase the pressure on 
  the compound, sometimes over the objections and sometimes 
  without the knowledge of the negotiation team.
  The negotiation team has been communicating with Johannes 
  and with his right-hand man - his “Holy Spirit” - Alfred 
  Carlton. Both cult leaders have repeatedly assured negotiators 
  that no one in the compound will commit suicide. Johannes’ 
  demands include legal immunity for himself and his followers, 
  including immunity from prosecution on illegal ﬁrearms, 
  bigamy, and child abuse charges; and the arrangement of an 
  opportunity to preach his message on national television and 
  to publish his revelations.
  Power and telephone have been cut to the compound (excepting 
  direct telephone to the negotiation team). It’s estimated that 
  the compound has enough water to outlast a prolonged seige, 
  but that they’re already running low on food. The FBI has been 
  keeping the compound under ﬂoodlights and has been broad-
  casting messages that anyone coming out of the compound will 
  be treated fairly.
  The hostage rescue team has prepared four resolution plans. 
  They’re awaiting your approval, Mr. President.
  FBI Plan 1 (lure) involves luring Johannes out of the compound 
  with the promise of media exposure - an opportunity to preach 
  on national television - and then arresting him, conducting a 
  search of the compound afterward.
  FBI Plan 2 (withdrawal) involves withdrawing law enforce-
  ment from the compound perimeter, waiting for Johannes to 
  leave the compound, and arresting him then. This is Mercer’s 
  preferred plan. 
  FBI Plan 3 (pressure) involves maintaining position and 
  increasing pressure on the compound’s residence, waiting for 
  Johannes to surrender himself and submit to search.
  FBI Plan 4 (nighttime entry) is a “dynamic entry” raid into 
  the compound, under cover of night, using tear gas and the 
  armored vehicles.
  A group of seven children have exited the compound, making 
  their way toward the perimeter. The children are very sick, 
  vomiting and fevered.
  Carlton (Johannes’ “Holy Spirit”) contacts the negotiation team, 
  insisting that the compound be supplied with fresh food and 
  threatening “a reckoning in blood, such blood” if the cultists are 
  further starved. He offers the release of four more sick children.
  Medical personnel on-site have examined the children. They 
  suspect botulism. There was a note pinned inside one child’s 
  jacket, presumably by her mother or another adult woman: “get 
  us out.”
  The Swiss Consulate identiﬁes the Swiss national in the 
  compound as Uta Krahenbuhl. She married Johannes three 
  years ago, in Switzerland. Together they have a two year old 
  son, presumed to be also in the compound.
  Special Agent Hugo Montego, the on-site commander of the 
  ATF element, has just learned of the hostage rescue team’s four 
  plans. The ATF element has also prepared a resolution plan, a 
  more aggressive and more dangerous daytime entry; he hopes 
  that you will consider it, Mr. President, as an alternative to the 
  FBI plans.
  In any case, Montego recommends strongly against FBI Plan 
  1 (ruse) and FBI Plan 2 (withdrawal), on the grounds that 
  the law enforcement objective wrt the cult is the search of 
  its compound and the seizure of its weapons hoard, not just 
  Johannes’ arrest.
  One of the seven sick children released says that most of the 
  children in the compound are sick, and “some are hurt real 
  bad.”
  
  10
  :50
  :60
  The negotiation team on-site is considering the food-for-
  children exchange. Carlton has rejected out of hand any 
  suggestion that more children be released than four.
  Agents on-site have seen armed men taking position within 
  the compound, sawing gun ports into doors and boarded-up 
  windows.
  Three children leave the compound - not four - released 
  with no exchange of food. One is in critical condition, having 
  received a gunshot wound during the initial exchange of ﬁre 
  eleven days ago.
  Johannes contacts the negotiation team in a rage, demanding 
  the return of all ten children, or else immediate food supplies 
  and medical supplies plus immediate accession to his demands, 
  and promising to “set ﬁre to the whole world” if he’s refused.
  Montego advises that his daytime entry plan can be imple-
  mented within the hour.
  Mr. President, which plan will you approve?
  FBI Plan 1 (ruse): Provide food supplies, offer Johannes the 
  opportunity to broadcast his message, arrest him when he exits 
  the compound, return later to search the compound.
  FBI Plan 2 (withdrawal): Withdraw from the compound’s 
  perimeter, arrest Johannes and/or Carlton when either one 
  exits the compound to procure food, return later to search.
  FBI Plan 3 (pressure): Maintain the compound’s perimeter, 
  refuse food supplies, act to increase pressure on the cultists. 
  Arrest Johannes, Carlton and others when they surrender and 
  submit to search.
  FBI Plan 4 (nighttime entry): Use tear gas, the armored vehicles, 
  and cover of darkness to enter and secure the compound. Arrest 
  Johannes, Carlton and others, seize the cult’s illegal weapons.
  ATF Plan (immediate entry): Use tear gas, the armored vehicles, 
  and aggressive tactics to enter and secure the compound. Arrest 
  Johannes, Carlton and others, seize the cult’s illegal weapons.
  Outcomes
  FBI Plan 1 (ruse):
  The ruse works, and arresting Johannes goes off, but although 
  Carlton had released the children without Johannes’ knowledge, 
  he remains loyal to the cult and capable in Johannes’ absence. He 
  prolongs the standoff - but with a new willingness to negotiate. 
  Mercer manages (sometimes barely) to keep Montego from 
  launching his own disastrous raid, and after another eight days 
  Carlton surrenders. Unfortunately, the extended timeframe 
  keeps several of the children, one woman, and three men from 
  receiving medical aid in time to save their lives.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism up 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige nil 
  Voter Satisfaction up  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  FBI Plan 2 (withdrawal):
  It turns out that Johannes himself doesn’t emerge to secure 
  food, but Carlton does, and that’s pretty good. Mercer carries 
  off Carlton’s arrest and also manages to delay Montego’s inevi-
  table raid, for a few days at least. By then, without Carlton’s 
  stabilizing inﬂuence and administration, the cult’s fragile and 
  vulnerable - but it’s turned on itself. By the end the death toll’s 
  near 40, most killed within the cult in its explosive ﬁnal day; 
  Krahenbuhl and her child are among the dead. No law enforce-
  ment agents are killed, a few are wounded.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism up 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget up 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction nil  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  FBI Plan 3 (pressure):
  Mercer tries to hold back Montego, and succeeds for a few 
  days. But inevitably, Montego leads his ATF raid, and it’s poorly 
  coordinated and poorly supported, and it goes very, very badly. 
  Ten law enforcement agents are killed, another 25 are wounded, 
  and few of the cultists live to face arrest. Among the nearly 
  50 women and children killed are Krahenbuhl and her child. 
  Everyone from the Christian Right to the Libertarian Right to 
  the ACLU to, y’know, Switzerland is out for blood, investiga-
  tions and resignations.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism down 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military up  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction down  
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  FBI Plan 4 (nighttime entry):
  The cultists are prepared for the raid and put up good resis-
  tance. In the end, the death count tops 50, including several 
  law enforcement agents and about 20 women and children, 
  including Krahenbuhl and her child. Despite the casualties, 
  this is publicly seen as a successful FBI operation - a hard 
  but necessary end to a terrible situation. Subsequent internal 
  investigations focus on the ATF’s aggressive stance and commu-
  nication failures, and Montego is formally reprimanded.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism up 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget down 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige down 
  Voter Satisfaction up  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  
  11
  ATF Plan (immediate entry):
  The raid catches the cult in the midst of preparations and poorly 
  organized, with Johannes and Carlton in a ﬁerce ﬁght over the 
  released children. Of the 30 or so killed in the raid, only two 
  are law enforcement agents, only 3 are children, and only 6 are 
  women. Johannes is arrested, Carlton killed, and Krahenbuhl 
  and her child return to Switzerland. Unfortunately, the griev-
  ances between the ATF and the FBI get aired in public, and the 
  FBI suffers badly in public view. Mercer is forced to resign.
  Conservation nil  
   
   
   
  Centrism down 
  Development nil  
   
   
   
  Balanced Budget up 
  Military nil  
   
   
   
   
   
  International Prestige up 
  Voter Satisfaction up  
   
  Tax Revenue nil 
  Health nil
  
SOURCE: textdata/thevault/Executive Decision/Executive Decision Those Fat Cats in Congress.pdf