Former rugby league player Glenn Lazarus has an outside chance of winning a Queensland Senate seat for Clive Palmer’s new party, and Labor is clinging to its eight seats in the Sunshine state and will struggle to pick up more.

If the former Brisbane Broncos prop is elected, Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will be a step closer to being able to abolish the carbon tax without relying on the agreement of Labor or the Greens.

An Australian Financial Review/Nielsen poll of Queensland finds Labor has made no inroads into Coalition support in Kevin Rudd’s home state, dashing any final hopes the government had of picking up seats there to offset losses in NSW and elsewhere.

AFR
AFR

Labor’s losses could now include up to eight seats in western Sydney alone.

Being a Queenslander has afforded Mr Rudd no personal advantage over Mr Abbott either.

The poll of 1014 voters, conducted over the weekend, finds since the 2010 election, the Coalition’s primary vote in Queensland has fallen 2.4 percentage points to 45 per cent, Labor’s has fallen 2.6 points to 31 per cent and the Greens have fallen 2.9 per cent to 8 per cent.

All these falls were due to the two new players, the Palmer United Party, which is level pegging the Greens in Queensland on 8 per cent, and Katter’s Australian Party, started by independent Bob Katter, which is on 4 per cent.

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Based on asking each person how they would allocate preferences, the Coalition leads Labor in Queensland on a two-party, preferred basis by 53 per cent to 47 per cent. This represents a two-point swing to Labor since the last election which, if replicated uniformly across Queensland on Saturday, would see it pick up the three Coalition seats of Brisbane, Forde and Longman.

But swings are never uniform and internal polling from both parties suggests all three seats will stay in Coalition hands and Labor could still lose such seats as Lilley, held by former treasurer Wayne Swan. “The Coalition has a significant primary vote lead in Queensland but Palmer and Katter preferences will determine close seats,’’ said Nielsen poll director
John Stirton
.

Poll confirms Rudd lift in Qld has not happened

The 8 per cent support for the PUP would not be enough to win Mr Palmer a lower house seat but, if replicated in the Senate, Mr Lazarus could be elected on preferences, including those from Mr Katter’s party.

When the poll numbers are punched in to
Antony Green
’s ABC Senate calculator, the Coalition would win three Senate seats in Queensland, Labor two and Mr Lazarus would take Labor’s third spot.

If the Senate balance in the other states remained unchanged, the Coalition would have 34 senators, Labor 30, the Greens nine, and there would be Mr Lazarus,
Nick Xenophon
and the DLP’s
John Madigan
.

When Mr Rudd regained the Labor leadership in June, it was hoped in Labor he would lift Labor’s vote significantly in his native Queensland. The Nielsen poll confirms it has not happened and Mr Abbott is regarded just as well, if not more, than Mr Rudd.

The poll shows in Queensland, Mr Rudd’s approval rating is 45 per cent. His disapproval is 50 per cent.

Mr Abbott’s approval rating is 49 per cent and his disapproval 48 per cent. The men are tied as preferred prime minister at 46 per cent each.

Also, 46 per cent of Queenslanders rate Mr Abbott as trustworthy, compared with 39 per cent for Mr Rudd.

NSW threatens to exacerbate loss

On the economy, 58 per cent rate the Coalition as the party preferred to handle it, compared with 35 per cent for Labor. A massive 72 per cent believe the Coalition will win Saturday’s election, compared with just 18 per cent backing Labor.

The poll shows that the 53 per cent to 47 per cent, two-party preferred result is the best-case scenario for Labor.

Allocating preferences is problematic because there was no KAP or PUP candidates at the last election.

Mr Stirton found a 54-46 Coalition lead – which is still a one-point swing to Labor since the 2010 election – if those who said they would vote for KAP or PUP were asked who they would preference, while the remainder of preferences were distributed in line with the last election.

The third model produced a 55-45 two-party result, which is no change since the last election, if the KAP and PUP preferences were split 50-50 and the other preferences were allocated how they fell at the 2010 election.

Queensland will not save Labor, but NSW threatens to exacerbate its loss. When Mr Rudd came back, it was initially thought about two or three western Sydney seats could fall. Now, up to eight are in peril, including McMahon, held by Treasurer
Chris Bowen
.