Most award-season handicappers believe there’s a relationship between presumed Best Picture favorites among Academy and guild members and the critical rankings provided by Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes and the Broadcast Film Critics Association. You can debate the importance of the latter three sources, but if there’s any cause-and-effect things suddenly don’t look as good for The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything, which of course are similar British-flavored dramas about troubled eccentric geniuses.

Award Daily‘s Sasha Stone has posted a ranking of the leading Best Picture contenders by Metacritic, Rotten Tomatoes and BFCA criteria, and the Bobbsey twins are ranked eighth and ninth. Eighth-ranked Theory has a 72% and 83% ratings on Metacriitc/RT, and ninth-place Game has been rated 71% and 85% on the two aggregate-tabluation sites. That means they might be nominated but probably can’t win. The top three likely winners by this system are (in this order) Boyhood, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel.