article: We are about to enjoy (!) the next act in the absurdist drama "Waiting for the Fed" (to raise interest rates again). Truth be told, we can be fairly sure how this scene will play out. Once again no increase in rates. Perhaps Godot will turn up first. The Fed is holding a policy making meeting and an interest rate rise is in theory at least on the agenda. Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair, and her colleagues would like to get rates back to more normal levels. The Fed currently aims to keep its main policy rate (the rates banks offer to lend to each other overnight) within a range of 0.25% to 0.5%. They raised it to that level in December last year, from practically zero where it had been since the depth of the financial crisis. But nobody expects they will hike rates at this meeting, largely because of the very weak performance of the jobs market in May. The number in employment rose by only 38,000, the fewest since September 2010. Because the US population is growing, the number of people with jobs has to rise by more than that just to keep pace. Employment growth in April was better, but still not all that strong. It's true that the unemployment rate fell markedly in May, to 4.7% from 5%. But this was due to a decline in the number of people looking for work. They are counted as "not in the labour force" rather than unemployed, even if they would like to have a job. In a recent speech, Ms Yellen described the May jobs report as disappointing and concerning. She did, however, manage to find one encouraging thing; a faster increase in average hourly earnings. After a long period in which the economic recovery has failed to have much of a favourable impact on pay it was, she said, "a welcome indication that wage growth may finally be picking up". Inflation is another factor that encourages the Fed to feel it has no need to rush the next rate rise. The latest figure for the inflation measure the Fed prefers was 1.1% in April, compared with its 2% target. That it is so low reflects some transitory factors, including the strength of the dollar (which makes imported goods cheaper) and the decline in energy prices over the last two years. But in time, those factors cease to have a direct impact, so Ms Yellen expects inflation to move back towards 2%. She also said that it's important not to attach too much significance to a single monthly jobs report. In short, a good report next month could bring interest rate rises a lot closer. So while investors think the date of the next rate increase has gone further into the future as a result of the May jobs data, the Fed is always ready to change its plans if new figures change the picture. Looking at the US economy from a longer term perspective, it is a remarkable state of affairs that we should have rates still
summary: Perhaps the playwright Samuel Beckett was a secret economist.