"Great, so we agree it's not a fraud and the title of the bloomberg article is grossly misleading. Even still, to call it a bubble, you'd need to first agree to what the non-bubble valuation of Bitcoin would be. The consensus among those who use the word ""tulip"" frequently when talking about bitcoin is that the non-bubble valuation of bitcoin is zero (0). This, of course, means that Bitcoin has been in a bubble ever since the first exchange of good was made with it (which folklore tells us was a purchase of 2 pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins, establishing a price of under $0.01 per bitcoin. Ever since, for the past 7 years, Bitcoin has been in a bubble. Furthermore, for as long as Bitcoin's market value remains at or above $0.01 per bitcoin, it will still be in a bubble. If me and a few hundred thousand of my closest friends have anything to say about it, that will never happen. And therefore Bitcoin will remain in a bubble indefinitely. Now that, to me, seems like a very unusual bubble. If that strikes you as a stretch of the concept too, then maybe we need to revisit an assumption or two here. For one, is the non-bubble valuation of bitcoin really zero? Is there perhaps something about bitcoin that might give it some intrinsic value that, say, tulips or beanie babies may not have? And if there is, is there a way to estimate what that value may be? Does that value change over time? Is it perhaps possible that the value of bitcoin correlates in some fashion with its reach and its network effect? Those are harder questions to answer, and their answers is certainly not as neat and precise as ""zero"" or ""bubble"", but maybe it's useful to think about them when trying to reason about what bitcoin is and isn't."


Unless I am missing something subtle, nothing happens to the buyer. Suppose Alice wants to sell short 1000 shares of XYZ at $5. She borrows the shares from Bob and sells them to Charlie. Now Charlie actually owns the shares; they are in his account. If the stock later goes up to $10, Charlie is happy; he could sell the shares he now owns, and make a $5000 profit. Alice still has the $5000 she received from her short sale, and she owes 1000 shares to Bob. So she's effectively $5000 in debt. If Bob calls in the loan, she'll have to try to come up with another $5000 to buy 1000 shares at $10 on the open market. If she can't, well, that's between her and Bob. Maybe she goes bankrupt and Bob has to write off a loss. But none of this has any effect on Charlie! He got the shares he paid for, and nobody's going to take them away from him. He has no reason to care where they came from, or what sort of complicated transactions brought them into Alice's possession. She had them, and she sold them to him, and that's the end of the story as far as he's concerned.


Anybody can contribute to a traditional ira up to the maximum limit. Does it make sense to contribute to a non-deductible IRA? There are a couple of cases where it does: If you're 59 1/2 or older, you're old enough to make IRA withdrawals without penalty. If you choose investments that maximize the value of tax deferral, you can use the nondeductible IRA to manage your tax burden. If you're aware of an upcoming change in tax law that will benefit high earning individuals, it might be beneficial to use a nondeductible IRA. For example - you know that income limits for converting a traditional to a Roth are going to change in the coming year. You set up a nondeductible IRA with the intention of converting it the next year, so you can get around Roth contribution rules. Beyond these cases, the main argument for contributing to a non-deductible IRA is -- compounded returns. If your IRA has a strong, steady growth rate, compounded returns can work wonders for your contributions. Let's take a hypothetical... You are 35. You contribute the max amount of $5,500 every year until you retire at 70. With a modest growth rate of 9.5%, your total contribution of 193K would become 1.46M. The compounded returns are 7.6 times your contributions.


A derivative is a financial instrument of a special kind, the kind “whose price depends on, or is derived from, another asset”. This definition is from John Hull, Options, Futures and Other Derivatives – a book definitely worth to own if you are curious about this, you can easily find old copies for a few dollars. The first point is that a derivative is a financial instrument, like credits, or insurances, the second point is that its price depends closely from the price of something else, the mentioned asset. In most cases derivatives can be understood as financial insurances against some risk bound to the asset. In the sequel I give a small list of derivatives and highlight the assets and the risk they can be bound to. And first, let me point out that the definition is (marginally) wrong because some derivatives depend on things which are not assets, nor do they have a price, like temperature, sunlight, or even your own life in the case of mortgages. But before going in this list, let me go through the remaining points of your question. What is the basic idea and concept behind a derivative? As already noted, in most cases, a derivative can be understood as a financial insurance compensating from a risk of some sort. In a classical insurance contract, one party of the contract is an insurance company, but in the broader case of a derivative, that counterparty can be pretty anything: an insurance, a bank, a government, a large company, and most probably market makers. How is it really used, and how does this deviate from the first point? Briefly, how does is it affecting people, and how is it causing problems? An important point with derivatives is that it can be arbitrarily complicated to compute their prices. Actually what is hidden in the attempt of giving a definition for derivatives, is that they are products whose price Y is a measurable function of one or several random variables X_1, X_2, … X_n on which we can use the theory of arbitrage pricing to get hints on the actual price Y of the asset – this is what the depends on means in technical terms. In the most favorable case, we obtain an easy formula linking Y to the X_is which tells us what is the price of our financial instrument. But in practice, it can be very difficult, if at all possible, to determine a price for derivatives. This has two implications: Persons possessing sophisticated techniques to compute the price of derivatives have a strategic advantage on derivatives market, in comparison to less advanced actors on the market. Organisation owning assets they cannot price cannot compute their bilan anymore, so that they cannot know for sure their financial situation. They are somehow playing roulette. But wait, if derivatives are insurances they should help to mitigate some financial risk, which precisely means that they should help their owners to more accurately see their financial situation! How is this not a contradiction? Some persons with sophisticated techniques to compute the price of derivatives are actually selling complicated derivatives to less knowledgeable persons. For instance, many communes in France and Germany have contracted credits whose reimbursements have a fixed interest part, like in a classical credit, and a variable interest part whose rate is computed against a complicated formula involving the value of the Swiss frank at each quarter starting from the inception of the credit. (So, for a 25 years running credit of theis type, the price Y of the credit at its inception depends on 100 Xs, which are the uncertain prices for the Swiss frank each quarter of the 25 next years.) Some of these communes can be quite small, with 5.000 inhabitants, and needless to say, do not have the required expertise to analyse the risks bound to such instruments, which in that special case led the court call the credit a swindling and to cancel the credit. But what chain of events leads a 5.000 inhabitants city in France to own a credit whose reimbursements depends on the Swiss frank? After the credit crunch in 2007 and the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008, it has begun to be very hard to organise funding, which basically means to conclude credits running long in time on large amounts of money. So, the municipality needs a 25 years credit of 10.000.000 EUROS and goes to its communal bank. The communal bank has hundreds or thousands of municipalities looking for credits and needs itself a financing. So the communal bank goes to one of the five largest financial institutions in the world, which insists on selling a huge credit whose reimbursements have a variable part depending on hundred of values the Swiss frank will have in the 25 next years. Since the the big bank has better computation techniques than the small bank it makes a big profit. Since the small bank has no idea, how to compute the correct price of the credit it bought, it cuts this in pieces and sell it in the same form to the various communes it works with. If we were to attribute this kind of intentions to the largest five banks, we could ask about the possibility that they designed the credit to take advantage of the primitive evaluation methods of the small bank. We could also ask if they organised a cartel to force communal banks to buy their bermudean snowballs. And we could also ask, if they are so influent that they eventually can manipulate the Swiss frank to secure an even higher profit. But I will not go into this. To the best of my understanding, the subprime crisis is a play along the same plot, with different actors, but I know this latter subject only by what I could read in French newspapers. So much for the “How is it causing problems?” part. What is some of the terminology in relation to derivatives (and there meanings of course)? Answering this question is basically the purpose of the 7 first chapters of the book by Hull, along with deriving some important mathematical principles. And I will not copy these seven chapters here! How would someone get started dealing in derivatives (I'm playing a realistic stock market simulation, so it doesn't matter if your answer to this costs me money)? If you ask the question, I understand that you are not a professional, so that your are actually trying to become the one that has money and zero knowledge in the play I outlined above. I would recommand not doing this. That said, if you have a good mathematical background and can program well, once you are confindent with the books of Hull and Joshi, you can have fun implementing various market models and implementing trading strategies. Once you are confident with this, you can also read the articles on quantitative finance on arXiv.org. And once you are done with this, you can decide for yourself if you want to play the same market as the guys writing these articles. (And yes, even for the simplest options, they have better models than you have and will systematically outperform you in the long run, even if some random successes will give you the feeling that you do well and could do better.) (indeed, I've made it a personal goal to somehow lose every last cent of my money) You know your weapons! :) Two parties agree today on a price for one to deliver a commodity to the other at some future instant. This is a classical future contract, it can be modified in every imaginable way, usually by embedding options. For instance one party could have the option to choose between different delivery points or delivery days. Two parties write today a contract allowing the one party to buy at some future time a commodity to the the second party. The price is written today, as part of the contract. (There is the corresponding option entitling the owner to sell something.) Unlike the future contract, only one party can be obliged to do something, the other jas a right but no obligation. If you buy and option, your are buying some sort of insurance against a change of price on some asset. This is the most familiar to anybody. Credits can come in many different flavours, especially the formula to compute interests, or also embed options. Common options are early settlement options or restructuration options. While this is not completely inutitive, the credit works like an insurance. This is most easily understood from the side of the organisation lending the money, that speculates that the ratio of creanciers going bankrupt will be low enough for her to make profit, just like a fire insurance company speculates that the ratio of fire accidents will be low enough for her to make a profit. This is like a mortgage on a financial institution. Two parties agree that one will recive an upfront today and give a compensation to the second one if some third party defaults. Here this is an explicit insurance against the unfortuante event, where a creancier goes bankrupt. One finds here more or less standard options on electricity. But electricity have delicious particularities as it can practically not be stored, and fallout is also (usually) avoided. As for classical options, these are insurances against price moves. A swap is like two complementary credits on the same amount of money, so that it ends up in the two parties not actually exchanging the credit nominal and only paying interest one to the other — which makes only sense if these interests are computed with different formulas. Typical example are fixed rate vs. EURIBOR on some given maturity, which we interpret as an insurance against fluctuations of the EURIBOR, or a fixed rate vs. the exchange ratio between two currencies, which we interpret as an insurance against the two currencies decorrelating. Swaps are the richest and the most generic category of financial derivatives. The off-the-counter market features very imaginative, very customised insurance products. The most basic form is the insurance against drought, but you can image different dangers, and once you have it you can put it in options, in a swap, etc. For instance, a restaurant with a terrasse could enter in a weather insurance, paying each year a fixed amount of money and becoming in return an amount of money based on the amount of rainy day in a year. Actually, this list is virtually without limits!


The issue I have with your use of Japan is that Japan has very strong exports of superior quality and low cost, we do not. And what about South and Central American Pesos? What about Keynes, Minsky, and the trilemma? Their central banks were completely overridden by foreign speculators. We can only choose two out of three options, peg our currency, spend to help the economy, and/or maintain free trade, not all three


What definition did they use for luxury goods? >The Deutsche Bank Research report defined luxuries as “goods or services consumed in greater proportions as a person’s income increases” That is completely meaningless. So lets look for a similar definition and see what we can find. [Here](https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2014-economic-commentaries/ec-201418-income-inequality-and-income-class-consumption-patterns.aspx) is a study that uses a similar definition. In their breakdown, they have 'luxury' goods as defined as owning a home, owning a car, using public transportation, and household operations. Those things do not seem very 'luxury' to me.


looking at flights available, a lot had very full seating. I could save some money if i want a long layover, like 20 hours, but i am not doing that on vacation with kids. I probably could have waited another month or 2 but my wife is a teacher and she was getting nervous about flights filling up. but at $650 per round trip ticket for that spring break week......probably not going to find anything much cheaper. I'll keep an eye on kayak.com, and hope i didn't pull the trigger too soon.


That depends. Are you willing to accept the traditional meaning or are you insisting that we dilute the word to cover every business and corporation? > An entrepreneur (i/ˌɒntrəprəˈnɜr/) is an owner or manager of a business enterprise who makes money through risk and initiative.[1][note 1] The term was originally a loanword from French and was first defined by the Irish-French economist Richard Cantillon. Entrepreneur in English is a term applied to a person who is willing to help launch a new venture or enterprise and accept full responsibility for the outcome. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entrepreneur


I think you've made a perfectly valid suggestion, and, if your son is struggling somewhat financially now, one that may be very welcome. If you agree to forgive the debt at this time in lieu of a similar amount forgone in future inheritance, it will eliminate the never ending interest-only payments, free up $200+ a month for you son on a tight budget, and improve your own credit score once you pay off the credit line. It's also, in my opinion, a good idea to be open about this in advance with your other children heirs so that everyone will understand what is expected during the eventual probate. My paternal grandfather was the recipient of a great deal of financial largess from his wealthy mother during her life, and it was fully understood by him, her, and his siblings, that in exchange he would not share in her estate when she passed. He didn't, there were no problems, and he and his siblings stayed close for the rest of their lives.


Adam Curtis also drew the parallel very articulately last year with his film Hypernormalization. [He captures the sense of sweeping alienation very well in this teaser, I think.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtjfoEvsR9w) [He did a interview on a neat podcast](https://soundcloud.com/chapo-trap-house/episode-65-no-future-feat-adam-curtis-121216) too about his film, late capitalism, past art and media that covers systematic failure, and what sociologically might be expected as the system continues to fail. Check it out if you're into that kind of thing.


"(Selling apps is AFAIK business, not freelancing - unless the type of app you produce is considered a freelancing subject. The tax office will give you a questionnaire and then decide). As Einzelunternehmer, you can receive the payments for the apps to the same account where your wages go. However, there are lots of online accounts that do not cost fees, so consider to receive them on a separate account so you have the business and private kind of separate (for small Einzelunternehmer, there is no legal separation between business and private money - you have full liability with your private money for the business). The local chamber of commerce can tell you everything about setting up such a business, ask them (you'll probably have to become a member there anyways). They have information as well on VAT (Umsatzsteuer, USt) which you need to declare unless you get an exemption (probably possible), and about Gewerbesteuer (the income tax of the business) etc. For the tax, you have ""subforms"" for the income tax e.g. for wages and for business income, so you just submit both with the main form. You'll get an appropriate tax number when registering the business. Social security/insurance: as long as the app selling is only a side business, the social insurance payments for your main job completely cover the side job as well. You need to make sure that your employment contract is compatible with the app business, though. A quick search indicates that there is a tax treaty between Germany and the Ukraine, Wikipedia says there are no contracts about social insurance in effect (yet)."


"You're absolutely right. I'm not commenting on the fact that retail stores still do massively more business than Online, nor the that they have a significant advantage when the balance begins to shift. My only comment is that their data doesn't support their conclusion. They concluded that 90% of business is done in retail stores. No, 90% of business *involves a retail component*, including the somewhat dubious ""Returns""- which is not part of the sales process and would understandably want to happen in a retail setting."


Many have a misconception that the website design process ends when the website has been successfully published for public viewing. In reality, web design is a continuous endeavour that involves looking out for new styles, changes in web culture, and constant adaptation to a highly dynamic world.


"Whoops, paywall. Here's a [link around the wall](http://archive.is/6quZg). >The first offshore wind installation in the U.S., a $300 million, 30-megawatt project off Rhode Island, began turning six months ago. >But the Block Island wind farm in the U.S. currently generates power for 24.4 cents per kilowatt-hour, while offshore wind projects in Europe can come in well under 10 cents per kilowatt-hour. Developers are optimistic that, as occurred in Europe, prices will go down as more projects begin and a supplier network takes shape in the U.S. It's interesting the seas are seen as a good place for wind farms, given that land developments are already profitable. Iowa is a [leader](http://www.energyfactcheck.org/fact-checks/wind-power-isn-t-a-significant-part-of-america-s-energy-portfolio). >The levelized (or ""all-in"") cost of wind energy ranges from $0.07 per kW/h to $0.10 per kW/h, making wind energy cost-competitive with fossil fuels and even cheaper than coal energy in many areas. Of course, it's not easy or efficient to move electricity from Iowa to the coasts, hence the offshore developments."


Not so much a stock as it is a commodity. Ether is actually a consumable. That is part of what gives it its value. And to answer your question, it is still early in the valuation phase of ETH. Large companies just started getting behind it this year with the formation of the EEA which caused some of the price run-up. If they can manage to implement blockchain solutions that are practical and alter the way transactions are traditionally done between mediums then the potential upside is massive.


"Austria - I'm 27 years old and live alone in a 753 square feet apartment. I live 100% on my own salary and have 0€ debt. I pay quite a lot of taxes but I think that it is well worth it, as until now, I received more from the state than I paid back (health care, education, scholarships during education, public transport, low rent,...) Our tax system is far from perfect, but there would be a lot of people who would have no chance to rent a decent apartment, get health care, get their kids to school, or even college without the ""socialist redistribution"" how you might call it. I do not think that I could change your mind for even a little bit - I just hope somebody who isn't as narrow minded as you might read that and think, hmm maybe this ""socialism"" isn't as bad as it is displayed. You for example have apparently no idea about the different facets of social economic systems but what am I expecting from a Trump voter (initially meant as a joke, but I actually was right wasn't I? :)"


You make the investment in Jan 2016. Assuming the SEIS certificate is issued before 5th April 2016, then you will enter the SEIS investment on your 2015-2016 tax return and claim the relief in that year. If the certificate is not issued in time then you will enter it in the 2016-2017 tax return and get the relief then. Note: I am assuming that the startup is already registered with the SEIS scheme by someone else - because if you are asking about how to go about that, I don't think that is an issue of personal finance.


I definitely see the value from a business standpoint just not as a consumer. I don't really feel like the prices are better than anywhere else. They do have really great employees and I'm sure there's a group of people who go there for that, and I'm are that ties in to them paying a reasonable wage. It will be really interesting to see where they are in 10 years


I'm not a tax advisor, but I've done freelance work, so... If any of your side-business revenue is reported on a 1099, you're now a business owner, which is why Schedule C must be filled out. As a business owner, minimum wage doesn't apply to you. All revenue is income to you, and you owe taxes on the profit, after subtracting legitimate (verifiable) business expenses. You'll want to talk to a real tax advisor if you're going to start expensing mileage, part of your house (if you use a home office), etc. Don't forget that you'll owe self-employment tax (the employer's half of your payroll tax). You can't save money on business taxes by paying yourself a wage and then counting it as an expense to the business. You'll definitely want to talk to a tax expert if you start playing around with finances as an (the) owner of the business. Income that is not reported on a 1099 should be reported as hobby income.


We offer you the opportunity to master your skills in Hadoop training in bangalore, BTM such as MapReduce, Hive, Pig, HBase, Flume, Apache Spark and many others. After completion of the certification, you will be able to show your skills in some sectors such as IT, data management, finance and many others.


Spreadsheets need not be static, they can pull data from the web. This article describes the method you seek.


"Does your company offer a 401(k) and are you taking maximum advantage of it? 2015 limit is $18,000, an extra $5,500 if you are 50 or older. The RMD shouldn't be too large, it depends on your age, of course. You're in no worse shape than anyone hitting age 70-1/2 and having to start taking their RMDs. If you are younger, your RMDs start pretty low. If I look at Pub 590, I find a 50 year old starts with a 34.2 divisor, less than 3% each year. At 60, it's 25.2, just under 4%. Edit - someone around 30 will have a divisor around 53.3 the first year. Just under 2%. I don't know what you consider ""sizable,"" but much above $300K in that IRA and you'll have more come out than you can fund into a Roth. Regardless of the amount, the RMD is taxable. You just need to pay the tax from other funds if you wish to keep the money invested as it was. You will pay the tax at your marginal rate, and that's it. This is the one downside of the inherited IRA, unlike regular money, it doesn't escape taxes. But, your dad put it in pre-tax (right?) so the amount you got is larger for that fact. I'm sorry for your loss."


>I said all that to say that you are correct in assuming I blame the socialist disproportionately, but I think this blame is justified. If they didn't have such an irrational/ignorate fear of the free market we wouldn't have such complex, unfair set of rules that tend to hurt the most disadvantaged in our society most. There wasn't a regulation that was causing insurance companies to not cover people with pre-existing conditions. That was a decision the market made based on a strict economic basis. I think liberals are right to want to protect people that aren't profitable customers... the market isn't interested in them. That is why many liberals do not see the market as a viable solution, especially when you are talking about healthcare.


Insurance companies don't do natural disasters. If a significant number of people had flood insurance in Houston, the insurance companies would go bankrupt handling the claims. They just aren't structured to cover a situation where a large number of policies are likely to have claims at the same time. That's why when insurance coverage for a large scale disaster is available at all, it usually comes from a government agency.


The United States taxes nonresident aliens on two types of income: First, a nonresident alien who is engaged in a trade or business in the United States is taxed on income that is effectively connected with that trade or business. Second, certain types of U.S.-source payments are subject to income tax withholding. The determination of when a nonresident alien is engaged in a U.S. trade or business is highly fact-specific and complex. However, keeping assets in a U.S. bank account should not be treated as a U.S. trade or business. A nonresident alien's interest income is generally subject to U.S. federal income tax withholding at a rate of 30 percent under Section 1441 of the tax code. Interest on bank deposits, however, benefit from an exception under Section 1441(c)(10), so long as that interest is not effectively connected with a U.S. trade or business. Even though no tax needs to be withheld on interest on a bank deposit, the bank should still report that interest each year to the IRS on Form 1042-S. The IRS can then send that information to the tax authority in Brazil. Please keep in mind that state and local tax rules are all different, and whether interest on the bank deposits is subject to state or local tax will depend on which state the bank is in. Also, the United States does tax nonresident aliens on wages paid from a U.S. company, if those wages are treated as U.S.-source income. Generally, wages are U.S.-source income if the employee provides services while physically present in the United States. There are a few exceptions to this rule, but they depend on the amount of wages and other factors that are specific to the employee's situation. This is an area where you should really consult with a U.S. tax advisor before the employment starts. Maybe your company will pay for it?


They want them to cover some of the debt (as well as the bonuses according to some former Tropicana workers that saw the same thing until Carl Ichan agreed to pay them) We're talking about Hard Rock and Ceasers most notably being rejected for their offers. So basically the casino will close on the 10th, or sooner if the bank can swing it as they're trying to, then selling, rebranding, and reopening most likely before the end of the year. Or at worst by next summer.


"This sounds like a FATCA issue. I will attempt to explain, but please confirm with your own research, as I am not a FATCA expert. If a foreign institution has made a policy decision not to accept US customers because of the Foreign Financial Institution (FFI) obligations under FATCA, then that will of course exclude you even if you are resident outside the US. The US government asserts the principle of universal tax jurisdiction over its citizens. The institution may have a publicly available FATCA policy statement or otherwise be covered in a new story, so you can confirm this is what has happened. Failing that, I would follow up and ask for clarification. You may be able to find an institution that accepts US citizens as investors. This requires some research, maybe some legwork. Renunciation of your citizenship is the most certain way to circumvent this issue, if you are prepared to take such a drastic step. Such a step would require thought and planning. Note that there would be an expatriation tax (""exit tax"") that deems a disposition of all your assets (mark to market for all your assets) under IRC § 877. A less direct but far less extreme measure would be to use an intermediary, either one that has access or a foreign entity (i.e. non-US entity) that can gain access. A Non-Financial Foreign Entity (NFFE) is itself subject to withholding rules of FATCA, so it must withhold payments to you and any other US persons. But the investing institutions will not become FFIs by paying an NFFE; the obligation rests on the FFI. PWC Australia has a nice little writeup that explains some of the key terms and concepts of FATCA. Of course, the simplest solution is probably to use US institutions, where possible. Non-foreign entities do not have foreign obligations under FATCA."


I can confirm this, as I just had 4 machinists retire in my department within days of turning 65. Predictions are that 3-5 million jobs will open up in my industry (manufacturing) over the next 5 or so years solely due to retiring baby boomers. Things are not all doom-and-gloom out there. We actually had to request a few of them to come back in part-time since it is rather difficult to find experienced machinists.


When you are in Thailand experience the fun, thrill and excitement see here. Nature blessed this country with green hills, rolling and undulating plains, long sandy luxurious beaches, several rivers and many of natural springs which are enjoyed by tourists during their trip.


Your administrator will pull from last year's funds first, before automatically moving on to the new year. The procedures are under guidelines from the IRS so it should be pretty standard. You likely only have to submit the claim once, but your administrator may have a special grace period form to fill out.


Often times the commission fees add up a lot. Many times the mundane fluctuations in the stock market on a day to day basis are just white noise, whereas long term investing generally lets you appreciate value based on the market reactions to actual earnings of the company or basket of companies. Day trading often involves leverage as well.


These stocks have no value to them, are just waiting for paper work to liquefy and vanish. The other gamblers are bots waiting for some sucker to buy so they can sell right away. So maybe a fresh new penny stock that hasn't been botted yet gives some higher chance of success, but you probably need to be a bot to sell it quickly enough. All in all not that much different from buying regular stocks...


You wouldn't want to trade with too small amount of capital - it becomes harder and more expensive to diversify with a small account. Also, the bigger the account the more discounts and special may be offered by your broker (especially if you are a frequent trader). You are also able to trade more often, and have a buffer against a few losses in a row not wiping out your entire account.


"Whether you can establish an HSA has nothing to do with your employment status or your retirement plan. It has to do with the type of medical insurance you have. The insurance company should be able to tell you if your plan is ""HSA compatible"". To be HSA compatible, a plan must have a ""high deductible"" -- in 2014, $1250 for an individual plan or $2500 for a family plan. It must not cover any expenses before the deductible, that is, you cannot have any ""first dollar"" coverage for doctor's visits, prescription drug coverage, etc. (There are some exceptions for services considered ""preventive care"".) There are also limits on the out-of-pocket max. I think that's it, but the insurance company should know if their plans qualify or not. If you have a plan that is HSA compatible, but also have another plan that is not HSA compatible, then you don't qualify. And all that said ... If you are covered under your husband's medical insurance, and your husband already has an HSA, why do you want to open a second one? There's no gain. There is a family limit on contributions to an HSA -- $6,550 in 2014. You don't get double the limit by each opening your own HSA. If you have two HSA's, the combined total of your contributions to both accounts must be within the limit. If you have some administrative reason for wanting to keep separate accounts, yes, you can open your own, and in that case, you and your husband are each allowed to contribute half the limit, or you can agree to some other division. I suppose you might want to have an account in your own name so that you control it, especially if you and your husband have different ideas about managing finances. (Though how to resolve such problems would be an entirely different question. Personally, I don't think the solution is to get into power struggles over who controls what, but whatever.) Maybe there's some advantage to having assets in your own name if you and your husband were to divorce. (Probably not, though. I think a divorce court pretty much ignores whose name assets are in when dividing up property.) See IRS publication 969, http://www.irs.gov/publications/p969/index.html for lots and lots of details."


Canada here. Want to know how we spend about $4600 (USD)/per per person to cover every single person while you guys spend $9700 USD per person for spotty coverage? We nationalized most of the system. Hospitals? Bought out by the government in the 1970's. Insurance? 100% public. No profit margins on anything. We bill out an aspirin at $0.65 instead of $65.00. Most of the costs are built into our tax base. At the highest income level, I pay $70 a month for medical. Below $35k it drops steeply and under $25k or so it's free. You will never ever have affordable health care if the hospitals can keep generating the insane bills that they do. $30k average for a birth? Seriously? This is why Canada can afford to give young families at 12 (or soon to be 18 month) maternity leave. We have private clinics everywhere, but their fees are 100% paid for by the health care system and are tightly regulated. The system works well. Nobody gets stressed when ill because there is never a bill to worry about. Maybe $15 if you want the fancy fibreglass cover on your cast. Drugs? Cheap and affordable thanks to government negotiated price controls (like basically every country except the US). End result? The average Canadian lives 3 years longer than the average American. Think about that for a minute. 3 years. Those are the crappy years, but you are still kickin'.


"Using a ""vehicle"" is a common technique to isolate project-specific risk from the remainder of the company. There's not any problem with the vehicle making zero paper profits, it was only ever a paper company. The dodgy bit is when they start offering remuneration to participants based on the vehicle's profits - anyone with any sense goes on gross. Or when they are artificially shifting the profits around for tax reasons."


The stock price is not only based on the general market trend and the stock's current profitability and prospects, but is also based on prediction of how the stock's prospects might change in the future. In almost every case, there are professional investors analysing the stock's future prospects and considering whether it's over or under values for its current price. However even professionals can be totally wrong. If you feel like you have a good grasp on whether the stock will have improving or declining prospects over time, then you might be (if you're right) equipped to make a sensible decision on whether to hold the stock or not. If you don't think you have a good understanding about the stock, then an understanding of the general market direction might at least make stock in general worth holding. Otherwise, you are simply taking a punt. If you know of another stock that has better prospects, then ask yourself why you would hold onto the stock that you think will perform worse. But also bear in mind that (in my understanding) research has shown that, on average, people who try to pick stocks rarely do better than a random selection, and more stock trades means more brokerage (which thanks to brokerage losses would mean you will end up doing worse than average unless you really do know better than the market).


Amazon and other online retailers actually now support bipartisan legislation to level the playing field regarding online sales taxes. Value Added Taxes (not sales taxes in the typical sense) are the way to go, as they are much more difficult to evade and can't be sheltered via the Cayman Islands. They can easily be made progressive through the use of rebates to lower income individuals. There is a reason it is in place in over 130 countries.


I appreciate your answering my questions instead of just downvoting. I'm kinda losing respect for this sub by the minute. I didn't imagine the government commandeering private fleets, rather there being rules in place for those corporations to handle evacuation situations. I do see the potential complexity inherent in that endeavor, but it's by no means too complicated to carry out.


For winning the lottery, it is important to set the mood, it means that one has to understand the consequences of winning and losing which requires proper planning that involves the feeling of self-motivation. Lotto winning system is one of the commonly used systems for the famous lottery games in the world. It is preferred by a number of players. A Lottery system is used by 70 to 80 % for purchasing the ticket.


"I don't have a direct answer for you, but here are some other things you might consider to help you decide on a course of action in addition to Joe's note about consulting a CPA... Get a couple contractors out to look the place over and give you some quotes on the work needed, most will do so for free, or a nominal fee. Everything about the extent and cost of repairs is complete guess work until you have some firm numbers. You might also consider getting an up-to-date appraisal, particularly if you can find someone willing to give you an ""after improvements"" estimate as well. The housing market has fluctuated a bunch in the last couple years, your current value may have shifted significantly from where you think it is if you haven't done one recently. You will definitely have to pay for this service, I would estimate around $500 based on one I got in St Louis a few months ago. You might also consider reaching out to a local property management company to find out where they think you would fall in the scope of the current rental market and what improvements they would recommend. You will probably want to be onsite to talk to any of the above people about the work they are proposing, and your intended goals, so figure some travel costs and time into your evaluation. As one of your noted concerns was the state of the roof, I can tell you that in St Louis County, and the spec sheet for most shingle manufacturers, you are limited to two layers of shingles, then the roof is supposed to be stripped and redone from the bare wood. Personally, I won't even do the second layer, I always go to bare wood and start over, if for no other reason than it gives me an opportunity to inspect the deck and deal with any minor problem areas before they become big problems. I don't know Greene County to know what the local code may be like, but odds are high that the shingle manufacture would not honor any warranty with this installation. Another potential gotcha that may be lurking out there is your ex may still have a lingering claim to the home if you go to sell it. I don't know the rules in Missouri off hand, but where I grew up (with family in the real estate and title insurance businesses) there was a law regarding homestead rights. If a spouse spent even one night in a property, they had an interest in it and an explicit waiver had to be signed to release said interest. Review your divorce settlement and/or contact your attorney to confirm your status in this regard. Also consider the potential of refinancing your mortgage to either reduce the payment, or get funds for the improvements/repairs. Final note, I understand wanting to help out a friend (I have done similar things more times than I can count), but seriously look at the situation and see if you can't get the rent or other compensation up to the level of the mortgage at least. You mentioned that you have belongings still on the property, what would a storage unit for said items cost? In terms of juggling the numbers you could potentially use that value as justification to adjust the friends rent as a caretaker fee without any issue. (Verify with your CPA) Talk to the friend and see if there are other parts of the job they would be willing and able to take on as consideration for the reduced rent (make sure you have at least a simple contract on any such agreement). Or if none of the above are sufficient to balance the numbers, see if they would be willing to take on an actual room mate to help make up the difference."


"I think you're on the wrong track. Getting more and more samples from the real world does not make your backtest more accurate, it just confirms that your strategy can withstand one particular sample path of a stochastic process. The reason why you find it simple to incorporate fees, commissions, taxes, etc. is because they're a static and constant process -- well they might change over time but most definitely uncorrelated to the markets. Modelling overnight returns or the top levels of the order book the next day is serious work. First you have to select a suitable model (that's mostly theoretical work but experience can help a lot). Then, in order to do it data-driven, you'd have to plough through thousands of days of sample data on a set of thousands of instruments to get a ""feeling"" (aka significant model parameters). Apropos data mining, I think Excel might be the wrong tool for the job. Level-2 data (even just the first 10 levels) is a massive blob. For example, the NYSE OpenBook historical data weighs in at a massive 15 TB compressed (uncompressed 74 TB) for the last 10 years, and costs USD 200k. Anyway, as for other factors to take into account: So how to account for all this in a backtest? Personally, I would put in some penalty terms (as % on a return basis) for every factor you want to consider, don't hardcode them. You can then run a stress test by exploring these parameters (i.e. assign some values in the range of 0 to whatever fits). Explore them individually (only set one penalty term at a time) to get a feeling how the strategy might react to stress from that factor. Then you can run the backtest with typical (or observed) combinations of penalty factors and slowly stress them altogether. Edit Just to avoid confusion about terminology. A backtest in the strict sense (had I implemented this strategy X years ago, what would have happened?) won't benefit from any modelling simply because the real-world ""does the sampling"" for us. However, to evaluate a strategy's robustness you should account for the additional factors and run some stress tests. If the strategy performs well in the real-world or no-stress scenario but produces losses once a tiny slippage occurs every now and again, you could conclude that the strategy is very fragile. The key is to explore the maximum stress the strategy can handle (by whatever measure); if a lot you can call the strategy robust. The latter is what I personally call a backtest; the first procedure would go by the name ""extension towards the past"" or so. Some lightweight literature:"


"If you're not getting pay stubs showing withholding then you're working ""under the table"", which (a) is illegal, (b) is a deal for the employer because they don't have to pay any of the employment taxes including their share of your SocSec and (c) is screwing you because you'll still need to pay taxes on every dime they pay your but won't have anything set aside for it unless you're doing that yourself. Which I'm guessing you're not. Call the local labor board or whatever."


The insurance company is must assume you do have a preexisting condition you are unaware of. The reason for that is that Affordable Care Act precludes the Insurance company from denying coverage of them if you do. Insurance companies are businesses. They are in business to make money(unless you have a nonprofit insurer). They can not do that if you can buy insurance only when you need for them to pay out. So even though you may not have a preexisting condition, they are precluded from requiring an examination that would detect the most expensive preexisting conditions (hidden cancers, neurological, autoimmune disorders). So the companies must do what takes business sense and either deny you coverage or charge a rate that covers the risk they would be forced to take. In your question on travel there was a response that suggested you get international health insurance instead of travel health insurance that would be considered credible coverage. You are trying to save money which on a personal level is a good idea. However that is against the societal and business need that you maintain health coverage during your healthy times to cover the costs of those who need expensive treatment. So you will be monetarily penalized should you choose to reenter the society of insured people. Once you have paid the higher rate for up to 18 months you should be able to get a better policy for people who have had continuous coverage. Alternately you may be lucky enough to start working for a company that provides health insurance with out requiring continuous coverage.


"Kinda related, but when I first started going to Best Buy in the late 90's/early 2000's they were the first company I experienced ""receipt checkers"". I know it's pretty common now in electronic stores, but I remember clearly that Best Buy was the first company that made me feel like a criminal after purchasing their goods. I've never forgotten that."


"Sorry I thought the subreddit this was posted to gave an implicit field but I should've specified. To clarify, I meant the general field of finance and investment banking. I meant less traditional means of entry into that field. There was a post about someone getting recruited by by McKinsey with a PhD in theoretical physics. While thats sort of ""out there,"" I meant more along the lines of Econ/poly sci/actuarial studies etc."


"First, you must prioritize what a ""need"" and what a ""want"" is. This is different for everyone but generally, I think most people will agree that impulse items are ""want"" items. Look at the item, hold it, put it back and wait 30 days. Put the money that the item costs $x into your savings account (transfer from checking, straight deposit, etc) Come back to the store and hold the item again and as ""did I miss the fact that I didnt get it 30 days ago?"". 95% of the time, the answer is no. You saved $x for 30-days, and received what is a tiny bit of interest for it. This is cause for celebration! If you repeat this for every item you THINK you ""need"" or ""want"" then you'll be amazed at what you saved. Dont waste this money on a vacation to the islands either! Keep saving. There will be plenty of rainy days when you'll have wanted to trade that island vacation (or the impulse items you bought that you used once or twice and are lost in your garage somewhere) to pay for some unexpected emergency. Trust me on this!"


"I'm just trying to visualize the costs of trading. Say I set up an account to trade something (forex, stock, even bitcoin) and I was going to let a random generator determine when I should buy or sell it. If I do this, I would assume I have an equal probability to make a profit or a loss. Your question is what a mathematician would call an ""ill-posed problem."" It makes it a challenge to answer. The short answer is ""no."" We will have to consider three broad cases for types of assets and two time intervals. Let us start with a very short time interval. The bid-ask spread covers the anticipated cost to the market maker of holding an asset bought in the market equal to the opportunity costs over the half-life of the holding period. A consequence of this is that you are nearly guaranteed to lose money if your time interval between trades is less than the half-life of the actual portfolio of the market maker. To use a dice analogy, imagine having to pay a fee per roll before you can gamble. You can win, but it will be biased toward losing. Now let us go to the extreme opposite time period, which is that you will buy now and sell one minute before you die. For stocks, you would have received the dividends plus any stocks you sold from mergers. Conversely, you would have had to pay the dividends on your short sales and received a gain on every short stock that went bankrupt. Because you have to pay interest on short sales and dividends passed, you will lose money on a net basis to the market maker. Maybe you are seeing a pattern here. The phrase ""market maker"" will come up a lot. Now let us look at currencies. In the long run, if the current fiat money policy regime holds, you will lose a lot of money. Deflation is not a big deal under a commodity money regime, but it is a problem under fiat money, so central banks avoid it. So your long currency holdings will depreciate. Your short would appreciate, except you have to pay interest on them at a rate greater than the rate of inflation to the market maker. Finally, for commodities, no one will allow perpetual holding of short positions in commodities because people want them delivered. Because insider knowledge is presumed under the commodities trading laws, a random investor would be at a giant disadvantage similar to what a chess player who played randomly would face against a grand master chess player. There is a very strong information asymmetry in commodity contracts. There are people who actually do know how much cotton there is in the world, how much is planted in the ground, and what the demand will be and that knowledge is not shared with the world at large. You would be fleeced. Can I also assume that probabilistically speaking, a trader cannot do worst than random? Say, if I had to guess the roll of a dice, my chance of being correct can't be less than 16.667%. A physicist, a con man, a magician and a statistician would tell you that dice rolls and coin tosses are not random. While we teach ""fair"" coins and ""fair"" dice in introductory college classes to simplify many complex ideas, they also do not exist. If you want to see a funny version of the dice roll game, watch the 1962 Japanese movie Zatoichi. It is an action movie, but it begins with a dice game. Consider adopting a Bayesian perspective on probability as it would be a healthier perspective based on how you are thinking about this problem. A ""frequency"" approach always assumes the null model is true, which is what you are doing. Had you tried this will real money, your model would have been falsified, but you still wouldn't know the true model. Yes, you can do much worse than 1/6th of the time. Even if you are trying to be ""fair,"" you have not accounted for the variance. Extending that logic, then for an inexperienced trader, is it right to say then that it's equally difficult to purposely make a loss then it is to purposely make a profit? Because if I can purposely make a loss, I would purposely just do the opposite of what I'm doing to make a profit. So in the dice example, if I can somehow lower my chances of winning below 16.6667%, it means I would simply need to bet on the other 5 numbers to give myself a better than 83% chance of winning. If the game were ""fair,"" but for things like forex the rules of the game are purposefully changed by the market maker to maximize long-run profitability. Under US law, forex is not regulated by anything other than common law. As a result, the market maker can state any price, including prices far from the market, with the intent to make a system used by actors losing systems, such as to trigger margin calls. The prices quoted by forex dealers in the US move loosely with the global rates, but vary enough that only the dealer should make money systematically. A fixed strategy would promote loss. You are assuming that only you know the odds and they would let you profit from your 83.33 percentage chance of winning. So then, is the costs of trading from a purely probabilistic point of view simply the transaction costs? No matter what, my chances cannot be worse than random and if my trading system has an edge that is greater than the percentage of the transaction that is transaction cost, then I am probabilistically likely to make a profit? No, the cost of trading is the opportunity cost of the money. The transaction costs are explicit costs, but you have ignored the implicit costs of foregone interest and foregone happiness using the money for other things. You will want to be careful here in understanding probability because the distribution of returns for all of these assets lack a first moment and so there cannot be a ""mean return."" A modal return would be an intellectually more consistent perspective, implying you should use an ""all-or-nothing"" cost function to evaluate your methodology."


"Simplistic yes, but are you seriously saying ""plenty of bankers were laid off"", even comes close to comparing percentage wise to the percent layoffs of the general workforce? I would not say that, and that is my simplistic view."


Is this the time of year this board attracts question regarding the law and how to skirt it? I've done as you suggested. I happened to have a month that I was going to blow through the $12000 limit I had on my credit card. So as the balance crossed $8000, I paid that amount, and when the bill was cut, it was just $4000 or so. Scrutiny would show the reason for partial payments was obvious, I wanted to avoid going over limit. I wouldn't have done so just to avoid the $10,000 transaction. Since then, I've asked that the limit be raised in case I have another wild month.


Gold Coast Home Builders are high quality provider of new house and land packages on the Gold Coast. As Master Builders, we provide the highest quality finishes, build quality and service to our clients through the whole build process. Whether you're looking for a custom home, or would like to select from one of our affordable house and land packages, call us today, or drop into one of our showrooms and discover why we're the Gold Coast's favourite builders.


> My arguement is to treat drug use as mental health issue, not continuing to fuel further criminal harm to society. I agree its a mental health issue, but I think weed smokers would all disagree and say they have amazing mental health.


Ok, thanks for sharing. I figured it'd be expensive, but I still want to check the features out. If we can't afford it now, we might be able to find a cheaper alternative, or grow into this one at some point down the road.


Unfortunately, you are required, but most states do have agreements with neighboring states that let the states share the collected taxes without the person having to pay double taxes. So being as this is your first tax return in your current situation, you might be wise to have a professional fill it out for you this year and then next year you can use it as a template. Additionally, I really would like to see someone challenge this across state lines taxation in court. It sure seems to me that it is a inter-state tariff/duty, which the state's are expressly forbidden from doing in the constitution.


"Rebalancing a portfolio helps you reduce risk, sell high, and buy low. I'll use international stocks and large cap US stocks. They both have ups and downs, and they don't always track with each other (international might be up while large cap US stocks are down and vice-versa) If you started with 50% international and 50% large cap stocks and 1 year later you have 75% international and 25% large cap stocks that means that international stocks are doing (relatively) well to large cap stocks. Comparing only those two categories, large cap stocks are ""on sale"" relative to international stocks. Now move so you have 50% in each category and you've realized some of the gains from your international investment (sell high) and added to your large cap stocks (buy low). The reason to rebalance is to lower risk. You are spreading your investments across multiple categories to manage risk. If you don't rebalance, you could end up with 95% in one category and 5% in another which means 95% of your portfolio is tied to the performance of a single asset category. I try to rebalance every 12 months and usually get it done by every 18 months. I like being a hands-off long term investor and this has proven often enough to beat the S&P500."


"Only you can decide whether it's wise or not given your own personal circumstances. Brexit is certainly a big risk, and noone can really know what will happen yet. The specific worries you mention are certainly valid. Additionally you might find it hard to keep your job or get a new one if the economy turns bad, and in an extreme ""no deal"" scenario you might find yourself forced to leave - though I think that's very unlikely. House prices could also collapse leaving you in ""negative equity"". If you're planning on staying in the same location in the UK for a long time, a house tends to be a worthwhile investment, particularly as you always need somewhere to live, so owning it is a ""hedge"" against prices rising. Even if prices do fall, you do still have somewhere to live. If you're planning on going back to your home country at some point, that reduces the value of owning a house. If you want to reduce your risk, consider getting a mortgage with a long-term fixed rate. There are some available for 10 years, which I'd hope would be enough to get us over most of the Brexit volatility."


Disadvantage is that tenant could sue you for something, and in an unfavorable judgement they would have access to your house as property to possess. You could lose the house. Even if you make an LLC to hold the house, they'll either sue you or the LLC and either way you could lose the house. This might be why the landlord is moving to Florida where their house cannot be possessed in a judgement because of the state's strong homestead exemption ;)


I work for one of the big 3 but there are no cars from them (yet) that fill the market segment I'm looking for. Buick has an AWD wagon coming this fall that is supposed to be a poor man's A4 Allroad. I'm hoping that's the case. It's nearly impossible to find a nice awd wagon with a turbo from an American manufacturer. Edit: it's a rebadged Opel Insignia. The new model looks MUCH better than the previous one. I'm hoping the performance is better as well.


> it means you can't compare education to any good for sale Why not? > All of those are offering a product that is used (aka consumed) If marketing is a product then so is education. Edit: Another thought. Are there for-profit schools? Yes? Sounds like a product.


A vision is the most potent force underneath a business. Achievable dreams that keep you interested and enthused all through the course of a task can be defined as vision. When you start a business, you envision for yourself where do you want to see your organization after a specified period and then every plan or policy revolves around that vision. You can adopt some simple tips to stick around your vision effectively


">""Those measures all reflect a new way of measuring VaR though, one that switches the model from a four-year look to just one year, removing the rocky years of 2008 and 2009 from the current measure"" .............. seriously i dont even know what to say."


Try doing a few local markets and events to see if there's a demand for what you want to sell. Walk around your city if you want to open a store and find locations you're interested in. Talk to as many people as possible about pricing, location, products etc, - getting to know your potential customers has been essential for my business. Being flexible and incorporating what they want has been key for me. Some of my best selling products have been created because so many customers have asked for a certain thing (I make jewellery and lots of people asked for giraffe necklaces - I made one and it's a huge hit!). And use your age as an advantage, I was 20 when I started my business and people are happy to support a young person with a big idea and loads of passion.


"They only need to show *hypothetical* uses and generate ""good news"". This causes the speculative price to rise. The whole thing is based on people's desire to make profits in an unregulated market - to be the ""early adopter"" Earlier in the year I bought a coin at 10, it's now worth 200 (I was touching 400 before the ""crash""). The coins may not be real, but the fiat profits are. Oh and the whole thing is risky and unstable as hell - which only adds to the swings.. and the demand"


Yea like it can't be that hard to make good food, i do it every night. The size of the wings also piss me off. Places like this will do everything they can to get you in the door except the one thing that matter. MAKING AT LEAST GOOD FOOD WITH DECENT PORTION SIZES AT A MODERATE PRICE.


"I started investing with $15,000 in 2009, my first trade being to buy Ford around $2 before the other two got bailed out. That single trade put me in the six figures. I've followed that up with equally successful trades such as shorting Netflix when they announced their new pricing plan, buying Tesla when they first started selling the Model S, etc. So yeah, even benchmarked against the 2009 bottom of the S&P500, I've had ""success."""


From Experian's FAQ How long does an item remain on my credit report? A credit reporting agency stores information from credit grantors and public records, including bankruptcies, judgments and liens. Potentially negative information, such as missed payments and most public record items, remain on a personal credit report for seven years. The exceptions are Chapters 7, 11 and 12 bankruptcies, which remain for 10 years, and unpaid tax liens, which remain for 15 years. A paid tax lien will remain for seven years. Positive information may remain on a report indefinitely. Paid closed accounts generally display for 10 years. Requests for your credit history remain on your personal credit report for two years. (This is a 'comment' to SpecKK's reply, but too long to make it as an actual comment)


> . The entire rest of the world signed on to it. So, yay 'murica and all but the rest of the world is dropping dollars on that big time. They signed something not-binding, and they aren't dropping shit. China and India are actually asking for money to be given to them.


if the consolidated joint venture/sub has a negative net worth, then it is backing out the minority owner's share. if another entity is taking the hit, or responsible for a hit/liability instead of you, then it should improve your valuation. do not confuse net worth with net income. BS vs IS.


Typically, as an individual, you can't just decide you want to lend out some securities. There is a lot of legalities that must take place in order to engage in such a transaction. It's a regulated industry and the contractual obligations that exist between borrower and seller are taken care of ahead of time by the broker with their client, prior to any actual transaction taking place. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_lending I say typically, becuase I'm guessing that if you are a large enough client and own a substantial block of shares (I really mean a lot) you may be in the unique position of being able to lend out. I'm not sure what the logistics of this would look like, but I think the brokerage house would approach you and negotiate a borrowing rate. In that situation, you may negotiate lending to the the brokerage house and not necessarily directly to the borrower.


As a gun person, anyone not buying right now is an idiot. Guns ammo and accessories will likely never be cheaper and more accessible then right now. People who only panic buy astond me. How short sighted my god. Seriously I remember when Obama got in, the price of stripped AR15 lowers nearly tripled at one point. Unbelievable


Include warnings that these numbers are estimates and are not adjusted for the market impact and tax impact of selling these shares. They need to stop pondering to the followers of the Prosperity Theology and get their analysis changed. Going to the shareholders page and just adding up their shares in comparison to the current price is lazy and not a good indicator.


So if population growth is the largest driver of demand, then why are typewriters no longer sold in big box stores? > Sewing needles are absolutely driven by population growth. Are sewing needles such a durable good? Do they never get lost? Are they all the same size? Is the same percentage of population using sewing needles now compared to industrial revolution times? What did the sewing machine do to the demand for sewing needles? > Therefore if one factory is capable of producing clothes for 100 people and automation doubles its output, growing the population to 400 would create jobs by necessitating another factory, even though automation increased efficiency. You just proved my point. Automation made it so more consumers are reached. Not through population growth but through the ability to produce more goods to meet the needs of more people. You employ 10 people in your shirt company and they produce 10 shirts each. You decide to automate. You have to lay off 3 people, but you now have the production power of 20 people using only 7 now. In doing so, your profit margins are better, and you notice that A- You can't keep up with demand for your shirts and B- There is a comparable factory in the county next to yours for sale. So you buy it, start off with 10 employee's and then you automate again, 14 people now have a job in your business as opposed to 10. Automation has made you more efficient, and has made it so that you were able to reach more people willing to buy your product. In doing so you have given them greater purchasing power. Today, you can be low income and buy an Iphone, a tv, a PS4, a microwave, a car, and some furniture. If these things were around back in the 1915, a low income person would be lucky to afford one of these items.


You will find number of weight loss supplements in market. It is not necessary that each one will work. Don’t worry no more with diets plus exercise with the Garcinia Cambogia, but the query is where to buy Garcinia Cambogia for weightloss with us your search will end. Visit us at: http://officialdiet.livejournal.com/1085.html.


It is a seasonality test what you did but google it for more statistical methods. Data meaning bias implies, You searched the whole data set for a pattern and got it, then when you implement your results don't give you that in practice due to the fact the pattern isn't really a pattern.... it's a feature of the dataset. Hmm, this would be difficult to test right now, your best bet is to test it for a few months before implementing it, however that is timely and a bit wasteful. You could just implement it and hope its right...


"Millennials prefer Walmart? I've never heard that. I'm a millennial and everyone I know hates Walmart. Millennials prefer stores that focus on ""organic"" and ""fresh"" products. Stores also get bonus points for ""locally made"" in millennials' eyes. Walmart is competitive due to excellent prices and wide variety of selection. Not because people like going there."


Get a loaf of sourdough bread, slice it lengthwise, smear some Dijon mustard and sour cream on it, place some sliced pepperoni and jack cheese and jalapeño peppers between the bread halves, wrap it in tin foil and place it on the manifold. Drive for at least twenty minutes. Stop. Pop the hood. Remove the sandwich, protecting your hand from the heat with a rag or napkin. Unrap the tin foil. Eat. Yum!


"So did they start weighing their products a little better? We try to be vigilant now, but I've been burned a few times by WF weighing things incorrectly. I always check the labels carefully after paying like twenty bucks for a little thing of olives. Still got burned by a pound of meat which turned out to be more like 2/3 of a pound. Unrelated, but I hate that they don't seem to carry steak tips in my area. They just try to sell you garbage scraps as ""beef tips"" or tri-tip, which isn't the same thing."


Fair enough. I would imagine the ETF could get a better option pricing if that were the case, plus liquidity and counterpart risk concerns but your point is well taken. Serves me right to shoot my mouth off on something I do not do (short). Speaking of which, do you do a lot of shorting? Cover positions or speculation?


> It doesn't have what Amazon wants or needs. Except it literally has everything but transit. And even then, we rank pretty low for traffic congestion overall. Just slap down a commuter rail and expand bus services and we'd be on par with most other metros.


Union Electricians make an average of $60-$80k depending on your area. Some can make less, but typically that would be non union workers. Some states are right to work, and by definition they will pay less than unions. Union Floor Layers/Carpenters/Painters all make way more than you can believe. Again, non union will take a small hit, but all clear $25/$30 and hour without second thought. There can be ups and downs in the market, work can get scarce, but if you save - there is not a problem. No college is required for the trades. Hard work is necessary, getting dirty as fuck is necessary, early start times/long days are a must, and the most obvious is working around many dipshit motherfuckers who shit in glue and paint buckets.


FX is often purchased with leverage by both retail and wholesale speculators on the assumption daily movements are typically more restrained than a number of other asset classes. When volatility picks up unexpectedly these leveraged accounts can absolutely be wiped out. While these events are relatively rare, one happened as recently as 2016 when the Swiss National Bank unleashed the Swiss Franc from its Euro mooring. You can read about it here: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-snb-brokers-idUSKBN0KP1EH20150116


I suggest a four pronged solution to our political problems. 1. Ranked choice voting nationwide. 2. No more electronic voting machines. We need a paper trail that can be verified. 3. No more crazy jerrymandering lines. They need to be SIMPLE polygons. 4. get big money out of politics.


I'm glad you arrived at that conclusion on your own. > The permanent political class, as represented by both parties … you’re not going to drain that in eight months. You’re not going to drain it in two terms. This is going to take ten, 15, 20 years of relentlessly going after it. > Stephen Bannon


Impossible to unwind. Its a monetary roach motel. They will try to raise rates and unwind their balance sheet until there is another financial crisis, to which there will be another round of QE that dwarfs the previous rounds. Unwinding has the real possibility of triggering another financial crisis. If the bond market turns bearish after a 30 year bull market I wouldnt want to be holding dollars.


"Just came across [this Economist](http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21608751-restricting-companies-moving-abroad-no-substitute-corporate-tax-reform-how-stop) article, they make it sound quite straight forward and I don't think they can be called totalitarian leftists by any stretch. Here is the money quote. > America’s corporate tax has two horrible flaws. The first is the tax rate, which at 35% is the highest among the 34 mostly rich-country members of the OECD. Yet it raises less revenue than the OECD average thanks to myriad loopholes and tax breaks aimed at everything from machinery investment to NASCAR race tracks. Last year these breaks cost $150 billion in forgone revenue, more than half of what America collected in total corporate taxes. > > The second flaw is that America levies tax on a company’s income no matter where in the world it is earned. In contrast, every other large rich country taxes only income earned within its borders. Here, too, America’s system is absurdly ineffective at collecting money. Firms do not have to pay tax on foreign profits until they bring them back home. Not surprisingly, many do not: American multinationals have some $2 trillion sitting on their foreign units’ balance-sheets, and growing. It seems clear that the 35% rate is not the driving reason for these huge companies doing inversions. That 35% rate should almost certainly be cut down, but the loopholes and tax breaks need to stop as a condition of a rate cut. Clearly this is not a dead simple issue, but I just don't want to hear the silly argument of ""oh our poor mega corporations are having to pay the highest taxes in the world!"" when the tax environment in the US is clearly rigged in their favor. Small and mid sized companies that can't afford their own Congressman sure are getting fucked though, and that makes me sad."


>If you take your blinders off, you'll realize that multi-generational households are a common phenomenon worldwide. Yes, the world was very poor, things were supposed to change and people could live better lives, but now people live at home until 28 just to try and have a home of their own. And we argue that this is preferable, for some stupid reason. You did make a sound financial decision, in a warped, lopsided society that lets rich people get away with murder. Romney pays 14% of his income to taxes? pfft, this IS class warfare, and the lower and middle classes are losing. >The Italian side of my family did it back when they immigrated and it's becoming a trend yet again. Yes, average people are having to do this again, because the income gap in the US is as high as it has been in 100 years. It is not a natural phenomena, it is caused by changes in laws, taxes, etc. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/06/who-killed-american-unions/258239/


"No, it isn't the opposite of his argument. From what I can tell, Alderan is stating: ""I will pick the best person for the job, regardless of Race, Gender, or Ideology. If there was a rule in place that stated that my company required an equal ratio of blacks to Asians to Hispanics to Italians, I would chose to not follow that rule, because that would be picking potential hires based on Race, Gender, and Ideology instead of their ability to do their jobs."""


You do realize we won WWII not by having the most advanced technology, but by pumping out SO DAMN MANY that the War Machine required. The Russians did this as well, while the Germans were obsessed with developing superior technology or having mechanically elegant solutions (like their tanks). We made simple jackhammers. By the bucketload and literally out produced our way to victory.


**Separation of powers under the United States Constitution** Separation of powers is a political doctrine originating in the writings of Charles de Secondat, Baron de Montesquieu in The Spirit of the Laws, in which he argued for a constitutional government with three separate branches, each of which would have defined abilities to check the powers of the others. This philosophy heavily influenced the writing of the United States Constitution, according to which the Legislative, Executive, and Judicial branches of the United States government are kept distinct in order to prevent abuse of power. This United States form of separation of powers is associated with a system of checks and balances. During the Age of Enlightenment, philosophers such as Montesquieu advocated the principle in their writings, whereas others, such as Thomas Hobbes, strongly opposed it. *** ^[ [^PM](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=kittens_from_space) ^| [^Exclude ^me](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiTextBot&message=Excludeme&subject=Excludeme) ^| [^Exclude ^from ^subreddit](https://np.reddit.com/r/economy/about/banned) ^| [^FAQ ^/ ^Information](https://np.reddit.com/r/WikiTextBot/wiki/index) ^| [^Source](https://github.com/kittenswolf/WikiTextBot) ^] ^Downvote ^to ^remove ^| ^v0.24


Sadly, everyone should have left Netflix due to the Comcast bribe. If Netflix is going to spend our money paying off cable companies instead of adding content, I'm out. It might suck for a little bit but let the customer complain to Comcast about not getting the internet speeds they pay for.


"This is the best tl;dr I could make, [original](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-14/poloz-sees-canada-growth-moderating-while-sanguine-on-inflation) reduced by 84%. (I'm a bot) ***** > Canadian growth will moderate in the second half of the year, as the Bank of Canada remains in &quot;Intense data-dependent mode&quot; in its consideration of whether to raise interest rates again at a time inflation is sluggish, Governor Stephen Poloz said. > Poloz, speaking to reporters Saturday in Washington, said there&#039;s a sense of &quot;Comfort&quot; that the global economy continues to improve while adding that Canada, which is leading the Group of Seven in growth, has not seen all citizens benefit equally. > The so-called Canada Child Benefit has had a &quot;Pretty significant&quot; impact on the Canadian economy, Poloz said, adding it could be one of the reasons Canada has seen rising labor-force participation. ***** [**Extended Summary**](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/76wh0r/poloz_sees_canada_growth_moderating/) | [FAQ](http://np.reddit.com/r/autotldr/comments/31b9fm/faq_autotldr_bot/ ""Version 1.65, ~229685 tl;drs so far."") | [Feedback](http://np.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%23autotldr ""PM's and comments are monitored, constructive feedback is welcome."") | *Top* *keywords*: **Poloz**^#1 **economy**^#2 **Canada**^#3 **growth**^#4 **Canadian**^#5"


"Essentially. Though, at Sam's Club and COSTCO, you'll probably get your membership revoked. By asking to see your receipt and items, you're submitting to a search and the company has no legal authority to force you to do so. Basically, every time an employee asks to see your receipt and items, they are accusing you of theft and demanding you submit to a search. No, most employees don't know the legal details about this. They also can't stop you from saying ""No, I don't submit to a search of my items"" and walking right past them. It might or might not be a big hassle. I've seen people walk right by them at Walmart. At my own grocery store, we had no legal way to restrain people who were stealing. We could yell at them, take pictures of their face, and give the evidence to police but as non-police personnel, we couldn't physically restrain them. We had a designated security guy who could do it and if he wasn't working that day, no one was getting restrained. The tiny girl working in the garden section of Walmart asking to see your receipt probably isn't private security or Walmart loss prevention. It just depends how strongly you feel about the 4th and 5th amendment. I personally get pissed that I have a 13 month old I'm carrying and then I have to put everything down, open my bags while watching my 13 month old to keep her from bolting all for an 18 year old to just draw a yellow line through my receipt after they barely glanced at my items. It's a hassle for me and unnecessary if Walmart had a loss prevention team worth a shit but they refuse to adequately staff their stores. Hell, you don't even need a good loss prevention department if you have enough employees on the floor to deter theft."


> It makes sense for EVERYONE to pay their fair and equal share. Totally agree. Don't you agree that a fair an equal share for someone working full time for the system is at least a modest but complete life within the system?


non-conventional tip. reach out to another firm's risk manager and offer to buy them lunch in exchange for general tips. maybe even give them a call and introduce yourself. I did this when i landed myself in alternative investments - came from mutual funds world which is highly automated to ai world which has a lot of room for growth.


"Some of the other answers recommended peer-to-peer lending and property markets. I would not invest in either of these. Firstly, peer-to-peer lending is not a traditional investment and we may not have enough historical data for the risk-to-return ratio. Secondly, property investments have a great risk unless you diversify, which requires a huge portfolio. Crowd-funding for one property is not a traditional investment, and may have drawbacks. For example, what if you disagree with other crowd-funders about the required repairs for the property? If you invest in the property market, I recommend a well-diversified fund that owns many properties. Beware of high debt leverage used to enhance returns (and, at the same time, risk) and high fees when selecting a fund. However, traditionally it has been a better choice to invest in stocks than to invest in property market. Beware of anyone who says that the property market is ""too good to not get into"" without specifying which part of the world is meant. Note also that many companies invest in properties, so if you invest only in a well-diversified stock index fund, you may already have property investments in your portfolio! However, in your case I would keep the money in risk-free assets, i.e. bank savings or a genuine low-cost money market fund (i.e. one that doesn't invest in corporate debt or in variable-rate loans which have short duration but long maturity). The reason is that you're going to be unemployed soon, and thus, you may need the money soon. If you have an investment horizon of, say, 10 years, then I would throw stocks into the mix, and if you're saving for retirement, then I would go all in to stocks. In the part of the world where I live in, money market funds generally have better return than bank savings, and better diversification too. However, your 2.8% interest sounds rather high (the money market fund I have in the past invested in currently yields at 0.02%, but then again I live in the eurozone), so be sure to get estimates for the yields of different risk-free assets. So, my advice for investing is simple: risk-free assets for short time horizon, a mixture of stocks and risk-free assets for medium time horizon, and only stocks for long time horizon. In any case, you need a small emergency fund, too, which you should consider a thing separate from your investments. My emergency fund is 20 000 EUR. Your 50 000 AUD is bit more than 30 000 EUR, so you don't really have that much money to invest, only a bit more than a reasonably sized emergency fund. But then again, I live in rental property, so my expenses are probably higher than yours. If you can foresee a very long time horizon for part of your investment, you could perhaps invest 50% of your money to stocks (preference being a geographically diversified index fund or a number of index funds), but I wouldn't invest more because of the need for an emergency fund."


If you need to procure of motorcycle shipping facilities, then look for the one that knows not only to render your motorcycle on the specified place and date, however even one that knows how to take proper care of it. In fact you would not like for your motorbike to have marks on it and certain dents during the transit.


"Your objectives are contradictory and/or not possible. Eliminating the non-taxable objective: You could divide the $100K in 5 increments, making a ""CD ladder"" $25K in 3mo CD (or savings a/c) $25K in 6 mo CD $25K in 9mo CD $25K in 1 yr CD or similar structure (6mo also works well) Every maturing CD you are able to access cash and/or invest in another longest maturity CD, and earn a higher rate of interest. This plan also works well to plan for future interest rates hikes. If you are forced to access (sell CD's) ALL the $$$ at any time, you will only lose accrued interest, none of the principal. All FDIC guaranteed. If non-taxable is the highest priority, ""invest"" in a tax-free money market fund....see Vanguard Funds. You will not have FDIC guarantee."


I know it isn't exactly the question you asked, but please consider your future too. 529 is the correct answer, because if you can fund a Roth, you should be funding it for your own retirement. Your retirement has much a higher priority over anybody's college fund. It is pretty great that you want to set aside cash for the niece's education, I think asking which vehicle is best for saving for education might be the wrong question. Students have many options for going to school and paying for it but retirement is pretty limited. http://www.clarkhoward.com/news/clark-howard/education/clarks-529-guide/nFZS/ is a good place to learn about 529s and makes good suggestions on where to get one. Do it yourself, and don't pay a broker or agent to do it for you. If your retirement is already handled, feel free to vote me down and I will delete this.


"As you said, in the US LLC is (usually, unless you elect otherwise) not a separate tax entity. As such, the question ""Does a US LLC owned by a non-resident alien have to pay US taxes"" has no meaning. A US LLC, regardless of who owns it, doesn't pay US income taxes. States are different. Some States do tax LLCs (for example, California), so if you intend to operate in such a State - you need to verify that the extra tax the LLC would pay on top of your personal tax is worth it for you. As I mentioned in the comment, you need to check your decision making very carefully. LLC you create in the US may or may not be recognized as a separate legal/tax entity in your home country. So while you neither gain nor lose anything in the US (since the LLC is transparent tax wise), you may get hit by extra taxes at home if they see the LLC as a non-transparent corporate entity. Also, keep in mind that the liability protection by the LLC usually doesn't cover your own misdeeds. So if you sell products of your own work, the LLC may end up being completely worthless and will only add complexity to your business. I suggest you check all these with a reputable attorney. Not one whose business is to set up LLCs, these are going to tell you anything you want to hear as long as you hire them to do their thing. Talk to one who will not benefit from your decision either way and can provide an unbiased advice."


"There are more than a few different ways to consider why someone may have a transaction in the stock market: Employee stock options - If part of my compensation comes from having options that vest over time, I may well sell shares at various points because I don't want so much of my new worth tied up in one company stock. Thus, some transactions may happen from people cashing out stock options. Shorting stocks - This is where one would sell borrowed stock that then gets replaced later. Thus, one could reverse the traditional buy and sell order in which case the buy is done to close the position rather than open one. Convertible debt - Some companies may have debt that come with warrants or options that allow the holder to acquire shares at a specific price. This would be similar to 1 in some ways though the holder may be a mutual fund or company in some cases. There is also some people that may seek high-yield stocks and want an income stream from the stock while others may just want capital appreciation and like stocks that may not pay dividends(Berkshire Hathaway being the classic example here). Others may be traders believing the stock will move one way or another in the short-term and want to profit from that. So, thus the stock market isn't necessarily as simple as you state initially. A terrorist attack may impact stocks in a couple ways to consider: Liquidity - In the case of the attacks of 9/11, the stock market was closed for a number of days which meant people couldn't trade to convert shares to cash or cash to shares. Thus, some people may pull out of the market out of fear of their money being ""locked up"" when they need to access it. If someone is retired and expects to get $x/quarter from their stocks and it appears that that may be in jeopardy, it could cause one to shift their asset allocation. Future profits - Some companies may have costs to rebuild offices and other losses that could put a temporary dent in profits. If there is a company that makes widgets and the factory is attacked, the company may have to stop making widgets for a while which would impact earnings, no? There can also be the perception that an attack is ""just the beginning"" and one could extrapolate out more attacks that may affect broader areas. Sometimes what recently happens with the stock market is expected to continue that can be dangerous as some people may believe the market has to continue like the recent past as that is how they think the future will be."


"Good. Although I could see their case for having opt-in location sharing to ""help them improve their service"" as knowing where potential customers are located would enable them to know where more cars are needed during certain times *before* bookings start to come in. eg. if they see thousands of their app users are at a sports game or concert they might send cars to the location in advance to get faster turnaronud times on bookings that will likely come in once people start to leave the venue. But yeah, this should 100% be an opt-in and should be completely anonymised. --- But yeah, personally I'd never enable it, however I can see the case for why it might make the service better."


Revealing and insightful article. I saw my Father work as a senior manager in the News industry where the top brass had no experience in the core of the business and saw the friction it caused with him and other Journalists. As an MBA student it's important for me to remember to put myself in other's shoes. Assuming I ever work in a business where management doesn't have the same core background as the operational employees.


"Essentially, he means ""one ignores history at their own peril"". We often hear people arguing that ""the old rules no longer apply"". Whether it be to valuations, borrowing, or any of the other common metrics, to ignore the lessons of the past is to invite disaster. History shows us that major crises in the markets usually occur when the old rules are ignored and people believe that current exceptional market conditions are justified by special circumstances."


"Debits' and ""Credits"" are terms used in double-entry bookkeeping. Each transaction is entered in two different places to be able to double-check accuracy. The total debits and total credits being equal is what makes the balance sheet balance. For explaining debits and credits, wikiversity has a good example using eggs that I found helpful as a student. Debits and Credits When a financial transaction is recorded, the Debits (Dr) and Credits (Cr) need to balance in order to keep the accounts in balance. An easy rule to remember is, ""Debit the Asset that Increases"" For example, if you want to practice accounting for cooking a simple breakfast, you might proceed as follows: To record breaking the eggs and putting the eggs in the frying pan In this transaction, an asset, (the egg) is split into parts and some of the asset goes in the pan and some in the trash. A Debit (Dr) is used to show that the assets in the pan and the trash both increase. A balancing Credit (Cr) is used to show that the amount of assets (whole eggs) in the egg carton has decreased. This transaction is in balance because the total Credits equal the total Debits. Everything that is covered by the Debits (yolk, white and shell) is also covered by the Credits (one whole egg)"


What do you propose a fair share should be? They pay nearly $900 million per year in income taxes. Their effective rate is reduced due to them paying higher taxes in years prior, plus they lost money and can deduct that as well. Not to mention, they are double taxed as a corporation and payroll taxes are not part of that $900 million, so they're paying even more than that. Part of what makes the US awesome is an environment that helps business grow. What do you think will happen when a business pays let's say 20% on revenue generated in other countries and then another 20% tax on that revenue here? Either companies will move to a country with a lower tax rate or they pull back on global trade. Both are bad for the economy.


Many fast food chains are slumping at the moment. McDonald's is putting itself in a specific position and that's very cheap food. I cannot remember the last time I have ever seen somebody not just go straight dollar menu or the $5 for 20nuggets. Meanwhile, Wendy's has staples like the Baconator that people are actually purchasing. Not against that approach, but yeah, McDonald's is literally you get what you pay for


>Everyone in this room is dealing with their own version of the candle problem. Maybe true. The Ted talk audience are highly educated, affluent, and intelligent people. Likely professionals. For the general public, the people who build buildings, maintain infrastructure, do any manual labor in general, in a non professional setting- these people are not experiencing their own version of the candle problem. Even in an office, service, or administrative setting, how many of these jobs are procedural and focused in their tasks and objectives. I feel that his insights, while valuable, aren't applicable to the productivity intensive problem that things like UBI face.


At the very least I'd look closely at what you could get from the RESP (Registered Education Savings Plan). Depending on your income the government are quite generous with grants and bonds you can get over $11,000 of 'free' money if you qualify for everything CESG - Canada Education Savings Grant By applying for the CESG, up to $7,200 can be directly deposited by the Federal Government into your RESP. The Canada Education Savings Grant section offers information about eligibility requirements for the grant as well as how to use it when the beneficiary enrolls at a post-secondary institution. CLB - Canada Learning Bond CLB is available to children born after December 31st, 2003 if an RESP has been opened on their behalf. Browse the Canada Learning Bond section to find out who is eligible, how to apply, and how much the Government of Canada will contribute to your RESP. I can recomend the TD e-series funds as a low cost way of getting stock market exposure in your RESP So if I were you... As an example if you earn $40k and you pay in the minimum amount to get all the grants ($500/year, $42/month) assuming zero growth you'll have almost $14k of which $5.4k would have been given to you buy the government, if you can afford to save $200/month you'll get over $11,000 from the government


"The DEA's reason for existence is for the USA to stick its political and military nose in other country's business, particularly Mexico and our southern continental neighbors. We need to legalize all drugs and spend that ""enforcement"" money preventing and treating addiction as a medical condition."


Treat each transaction as separate, with its own principal, its own gain, and its own number of days. Then the total annualized return is just a weighted average of each annualized return, with the weighting related to the number of shares in that transaction.


If economic conditions are weakening, i.e. unemployment rising, business and consummer confidence dropping, etc., you can expect interest rates and thus mortgage rates to drop. If economic conditions are strengthening you can expect interest rates and thus mortgage rates to start rising. As you are in the US, and with official interest rates there at 0.25% there is not much room for these rates to fall further. I am in Australia, with official interest rates at 3.75%, and with the economic weakness in the US and Europe and with China slowing down, we can expect our rates to fall further over the next year. Regarding your timeframe of one to two weeks, unless there is a decision on rates in the US in the next week I don't think there would be much change, especially with rates there at record lows. You are probably best to shop around for the best rates now and refinance once you have found one you are happy with.