Fiscal policy is the means by which the government adjusts its budget balance through spending and revenue changes to influence broader economic conditions. According to mainstream economics, the government can impact the level of economic activity, generally measured by gross domestic product (GDP), in the short term by changing its level of spending and tax revenue. Expansionary fiscal policy—an increase in government spending, a decrease in tax revenue, or a combination of the two—is expected to spur economic activity, whereas contractionary fiscal policy—a decrease in government spending, an increase in tax revenue, or a combination of the two—is expected to slow economic activity. When the government's budget is running a deficit, fiscal policy is said to be expansionary: when it is running a surplus, fiscal policy is said to be contractionary. Contractionary fiscal policy can be used to slow economic activity if policymakers are concerned that the economy may be overheating, which can cause a recession. However, the government can replace some of the lost aggregate demand and limit the negative impacts of a recession on individuals and businesses with the use of fiscal stimulus by increasing government spending, decreasing tax revenue, or a combination of the two. Government spending takes the form of both purchases of goods and services by the government, which directly increase economic activity, and transfers to individuals, which indirectly increase economic activity as individuals spend those funds. For example, an individual income tax cut increases the amount of disposable income available to individuals, enabling them to purchase more goods and services. Potential Offsetting Effects to Expansionary Fiscal Policy

			Investment and Interest Rates

To engage in fiscal stimulus by either increasing spending or decreasing tax revenue, the government must increase the size of its deficit and borrow money to finance that stimulus. As discussed above, during a recession fiscal stimulus is less likely to result in offsetting contractionary effects—such as rising interest rates, trade deficits, and inflation—resulting in a larger increase in economic activity from fiscal stimulus. First, persistent fiscal stimulus when the economy is near full capacity can exacerbate the negative consequences of fiscal stimulus, such as decreasing investment, rising trade deficits, and accelerating inflation. Second, decreasing the size of the budget deficit slows the accumulation of public debt. These effects tend to spur additional economic activity, partly offsetting the decline resulting from withdrawing fiscal stimulus. The budget deficit then tends to shrink as the economy enters into recovery and fiscal stimulus is less necessary to support economic growth. However, in recent years, the federal budget has bucked this trend. Beginning in 2016, in spite of relatively strong economic conditions, the structural deficit has started to rise again, nearing 4.0% of GDP in 2018. As discussed earlier, expanding fiscal stimulus when the economy is not depressed can result in rising interest rates, a growing trade deficit, and higher inflation. As of publication of this report, interest rates and inflation do not appear to have been affected by the additional fiscal stimulus; interest rates are at historic lows and inflation shows no signs of acceleration. The trade deficit has been growing in recent years; however, it is not clear that this growth in the trade deficit is a result of increased fiscal stimulus.
Fiscal policy is the means by which the government adjusts its spending and revenue to influence the broader economy. By adjusting its level of spending and tax revenue, the government can affect the economy by either increasing or decreasing economic activity in the short term. For example, when the government runs a budget deficit, it is said to be engaging in fiscal stimulus, spurring economic activity, and when the government runs a budget surplus, it is said to be engaging in a fiscal contraction, slowing economic activity.
The government can use fiscal stimulus to spur economic activity by increasing government spending, decreasing tax revenue, or a combination of the two. Increasing government spending tends to encourage economic activity either directly through purchasing additional goods and services from the private sector or indirectly by transferring funds to individuals who may then spend that money. Decreasing tax revenue tends to encourage economic activity indirectly by increasing individuals' disposable income, which tends to lead to those individuals consuming more goods and services. This sort of expansionary fiscal policy can be beneficial when the economy is in recession, as it lessens the negative impacts of a recession, such as elevated unemployment and stagnant wages. However, expansionary fiscal policy can result in rising interest rates, growing trade deficits, and accelerating inflation, particularly if applied during healthy economic expansions. These side effects from expansionary fiscal policy tend to partly offset its stimulative effects.
The government can use contractionary fiscal policy to slow economic activity by decreasing government spending, increasing tax revenue, or a combination of the two. Decreasing government spending tends to slow economic activity as the government purchases fewer goods and services from the private sector. Increasing tax revenue tends to slow economic activity by decreasing individuals' disposable income, likely causing them to decrease spending on goods and services. As the economy exits a recession and begins to grow at a healthy pace, policymakers may choose to reduce fiscal stimulus to avoid some of the negative consequences of expansionary fiscal policy, such as rising interest rates, growing trade deficits, and accelerating inflation, or to manage the level of public debt.
In recent history, the federal government has generally followed a pattern of increasing fiscal stimulus during a recession, then decreasing fiscal stimulus during the economic recovery. Prior to the "Great Recession" of 2007-2009 the federal budget deficit was about 1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007. During the recession, the budget deficit grew to nearly 10% of GDP in part due to additional fiscal stimulus applied to the economy. The budget deficit began shrinking in 2010, falling to about 2% of GDP by 2015. In contrast to the typical pattern of fiscal policy, the budget deficit began growing again in 2016, rising to nearly 4% of GDP in 2018 despite relatively strong economic conditions. This change in fiscal policy is notable, as expanding fiscal stimulus when the economy is not depressed can result in rising interest rates, a growing trade deficit, and accelerating inflation. As of publication of this report, interest rates have not risen discernibly and are still near historic lows, and inflation rates show no sign of acceleration. The trade deficit has been growing in recent years; however, it is not clear that this growth in the trade deficit is a result of increased fiscal stimulus.