Air Force Reported That Cobra Dane and LRDR Can Contribute to Various Missions, and We Found That Additional Radar Investments May Reduce Reliance on Cobra Dane

		Air Force Reported That Cobra Dane and LRDR Contribute Both Shared and Unique Capabilities to Their Respective Missions

In its January 2018 report to Congress, the Air Force described how  Cobra Dane and LRDR can meet mission requirements through their  shared and unique capabilities, as well as how their locations affect their  ability to provide those capabilities for DOD’s ballistic missile defense  mission. Ballistic Missile Defense and Space Surveillance Missions

The Air Force included information in its report to Congress on the  ballistic missile defense capabilities of Cobra Dane and LRDR, and the  effects of each radar’s location on those capabilities. DOD Has Made Other Investments in Radar Systems That May Reduce Its Reliance on Cobra Dane to Meet Mission Requirements

According to DOD officials and documents we reviewed, other radar  investments may reduce the department’s reliance on Cobra Dane for  ballistic missile defense and space surveillance, given that U.S. Northern  Command identified it has a need for Cobra Dane after DOD begins  operating LRDR in fiscal year 2021. Specifically, the Pacific Radar and  Space Fence may reduce DOD’s reliance on Cobra Dane to support  ballistic missile defense and space surveillance, respectively. MDA began developing the Pacific Radar to provide additional missile  threat tracking and discrimination capabilities. The Air Force plans for the  Space Fence to be operational in fiscal year 2019. Air Force Reported That Cobra Dane Generally Meets Its Requirements for Operational Availability, and We Found That the Air Force Can Mitigate Radar Downtime for Its Missions

In its January 2018 report to Congress, the Air Force noted that Cobra  Dane met its requirement for operational availability—i.e., the percentage  of time that the radar system is able to meet its ballistic missile defense  and space surveillance missions. This analysis found that U.S. Northern Command can lose the ability to  track some missile threat trajectories if Cobra Dane is not available and  the Sea-Based X-band radar is not deployed. MDA officials told us  there are no scheduled plans to take Cobra Dane down long enough to  compromise DOD’s ability to conduct space surveillance. Air Force Reported That DOD Has Plans to Fund Cobra Dane and Its Site, and We Found That It Has Developed Cost Estimates for Some Projects

		Air Force Reported the Funding for the Operation and Sustainment of Cobra Dane, and We Found That DOD Has Developed Cost Estimates for Some Modernization Projects

In its January 2018 report to Congress, the Air Force projected that the  Air Force and MDA would contribute total funding of $278.6 million based  on their fiscal year 2019 budget plans for the operation and sustainment  of Cobra Dane. According to the report, the Air Force and MDA plan to  share funding for the operation and maintenance of the Cobra Dane  radar, and for three modernization projects that make up their  sustainment plan for the radar. In addition to what the Air Force reported, we identified that the Air Force  developed a total cost estimate for its transmitter group replacement, but  not for its other two projects. For the other two projects, Air Force officials  stated that they plan to complete estimates for the total costs in  conjunction with their fiscal year 2020 budget submission. The Air Force Reported the Funding for the Operation and Sustainment of Shemya Island

In its report to Congress, the Air Force identified that it plans to provide  $140 million in funding for the sustainment and maintenance of  operational access to Cobra Dane’s site at Shemya Island based on its  fiscal year 2019 budget plans.
Why GAO Did This Study

First fielded in 1976 on Shemya Island in Alaska, the Cobra Dane radar faces growing sustainment challenges that DOD plans to address through modernization projects. Anticipating future needs, DOD began investing in new radar systems that share capabilities with Cobra Dane to support ballistic missile defense and space surveillance, including the LRDR (Alaska), the Space Fence (Marshall Islands), and the Pacific Radar (location to be determined).
The conference report accompanying a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 included a provision that GAO review the Air Force's report to Congress on the operation and sustainment of Cobra Dane. This report identifies information included in the Air Force's report and describes additional information that GAO reviewed on (1) the capabilities of the Cobra Dane radar and other planned radars to meet DOD's mission requirements, (2) Cobra Dane's operational availability and the plan to mitigate the effect on those missions when Cobra Dane is not available, and (3) DOD's funding plan and project cost estimates for the operation and sustainment of Cobra Dane and its site at Shemya Island. GAO reviewed the Air Force report and related documentation, and interviewed relevant officials.

What GAO Found

In its January 2018 report to Congress, the Air Force reported how the Cobra Dane radar and the Long Range Discrimination Radar (LRDR) have shared and unique capabilities to support ballistic missile defense and space surveillance missions. The report noted that the respective locations of both radar systems affect their ability to provide those capabilities. The Department of Defense (DOD) also has other radar investments—the Pacific Radar and the Space Fence, which, according to DOD officials, may reduce DOD's reliance on Cobra Dane to provide ballistic missile defense and space surveillance capabilities.
The Air Force's report to Congress noted that Cobra Dane met its requirement for operational availability, which refers to the percentage of time that the radar is able to meet its missions. GAO found that the Air Force has developed procedures to mitigate risks when Cobra Dane is not available. For example, U.S. Northern Command and Missile Defense Agency (MDA) officials stated that they can mitigate risks when Cobra Dane is not available by using the Sea-Based X-band radar to provide support for ballistic missile defense. The Air Force would face some limitations in its ability to conduct space surveillance if Cobra Dane were not available, as Cobra Dane tracks objects no other radar can track. However, MDA officials noted there are no plans to take Cobra Dane offline long enough to compromise space surveillance.
The Air Force and MDA plan to contribute total funding of $278.6 million for the operation and sustainment of Cobra Dane, according to their fiscal year 2019 budget plans. Specifically, the Air Force and MDA plan to share funding for the operation and maintenance of the Cobra Dane radar and for three modernization projects that make up their sustainment plan for the radar. Further, the Air Force report noted that the Air Force also plans to provide $140 million in funding for the sustainment and maintenance of operational access to Cobra Dane's site at Shemya Island. In addition, GAO found that the Air Force developed a total cost estimate for one project—known as the transmitter group replacement—but not for its other two projects. Air Force officials plan to complete cost estimates for those two projects in conjunction with their fiscal year 2020 budget submission.