Climate change may intensify slow-onset disasters, such as  drought, crop failure, and sea level rise. These effects of climate change may alter existing  migration trends across the globe, according to IOM. Executive Branch Actions Related to Climate Change and Migration from Fiscal Years 2014 through 2018

Climate change as a driver of migration was not a focus of the policy  documents we reviewed for either the current or previous administrations  during fiscal years 2014 through 2018. 2016 Presidential Memorandum on Climate Change and National  Security. It also required agencies to develop implementation  plans that would describe how they would identify the potential impact  of climate change on human mobility, including migration and  displacement, and the resulting impacts on national security, among  other requirements, and stated that the effects of climate change can  lead to population migration within and across international borders,  spur crises, and amplify or accelerate conflict in countries or regions  already facing instability. Although these executive  orders did not require a specific assessment of climate change as a driver  of migration, all three agencies have discussed the effects of climate  change on migration in their adaptation plans and risk assessments. However, State lacks clear guidance on its process for assessing climate  change-related risks to its integrated country strategies. Few of the State and USAID Risk Assessments We Reviewed Identified the Nexus of Climate Change and Migration as a Risk

In response to Executive Order 13677, State and USAID developed  processes for climate change risk assessments for their country and  regional planning documents. State issued new guidance to its missions in 2018, but  this guidance does not include information on the process for assessing  climate change-related risks to agency strategies. State, USAID, and DOD Have Been Involved in Various Climate Change Related Activities, but None Were Focused Specifically on Migration, and Their Participation Has Declined

For fiscal years 2014 through 2017, State, USAID, and DOD had some  activities that could potentially address climate change as a driver of  migration, although none of these activities specifically focused on the  issue. The activity for Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement through  Market Expansion, which aims to support pastoralists in Ethiopia via  expansion of markets and long-term behavior change (see fig. USAID officials cited this activity as an example of adaptation efforts  that indirectly address the issue of climate change as a driver of  migration. Recommendation for Executive Action

We are making the following recommendation to State:  The Secretary of State should ensure that the Director of the Office of  U.S. Foreign Assistance Resources provides missions with guidance that  clearly documents the department’s process for climate change risk  assessments for integrated country strategies. In its comments, State did not oppose the  recommendation and noted that the agency will update its integrated  country strategy guidance by June 30, 2019 to inform missions that they  have the option to include an annex on climate resilience, as well as other  topics. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

This report (1) describes executive branch actions related to climate  change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018; (2) examines  the extent to which the Department of State (State), the U.S. Agency for  International Development (USAID), and the Department of Defense  (DOD) have discussed the potential effects of climate change on  migration in their plans and risk assessments; and (3) describes State,  USAID, and DOD activities, if any, that are related to climate change and  global migration.
Why GAO Did This Study

The effects of climate change, combined with other factors, may alter human migration trends across the globe, according to the International Organization for Migration. For example, climate change can increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters, causing populations to move from an area. Climate change can also intensify slow-onset disasters, such as drought, crop failure, or sea level rise, potentially altering longer-term migration trends.
GAO was asked to review how U.S. agencies address climate change as a potential driver of global migration. For State, USAID, and DOD, this report (1) describes executive branch actions related to climate change and migration from fiscal years 2014 through 2018; (2) examines the extent to which the agencies discussed the potential effects of climate change on migration in their plans and risk assessments; and (3) describes agency activities on the issue. GAO analyzed documents on administration priorities; reviewed agency plans, risk assessments, and documentation of agency activities; and interviewed agency officials.

What GAO Found

From fiscal years 2014 through 2018, a variety of executive branch actions related to climate change—such as executive orders and strategies—affected the Department of State (State), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Department of Defense (DOD), including their activities that could potentially address the nexus of climate change and migration. For example, a fiscal year 2016 presidential memorandum—rescinded in 2017—required agencies to develop implementation plans to identify the potential impact of climate change on human mobility, among other things. In general, however, climate change as a driver of migration was not a focus of the executive branch actions. For example, a fiscal year 2014 executive order—also rescinded in 2017—requiring agencies to prepare for the impacts of climate change did not highlight migration as a particular concern.
State, USAID, and DOD have discussed the potential effects of climate change on migration in agency plans and risk assessments. For example, State and USAID required climate change risk assessments when developing country and regional strategies, and a few of the strategies reviewed by GAO identified the nexus of climate change and migration as a risk. However, State changed its approach in 2017, no longer providing missions with guidance on whether and how to include climate change risks in their integrated country strategies. In doing so, State did not include in its 2018 guidance to the missions any information on how to include climate change risks, should the missions choose to do so. Without clear guidance, State may miss opportunities to identify and address issues related to climate change as a potential driver of migration.
The three agencies have been involved in climate change related activities but none were specifically focused on the nexus with global migration. For example, USAID officials said that the agency's adaptation efforts, such as its Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement through Market Expansion project in Ethiopia, were the most likely to include activities, such as enhancing resilience, that can indirectly address the issue of climate change as a driver of migration.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that State provide missions with guidance that clearly documents its process for climate change risk assessments for country strategies. In commenting on a draft of this report, State indicated that it would update its integrated country strategy guidance and will specifically note that missions have the option to provide additional information on climate resilience and related topics.