NNSA Has Taken Steps to Prepare to Restart a Program to Replace the W78 Nuclear Warhead Capability

NNSA has taken steps to prepare to restart a program to replace the W78  nuclear warhead capability. According to NNSA officials, these steps are  typically needed to conduct any LEP. Therefore, they can be undertaken  despite the uncertainty about whether the final program will develop the  warhead for the Air Force only or for both the Air Force and the Navy. Specifically, NNSA has (1) taken initial steps to establish the program  management functions needed to execute the program and assemble  personnel for a program management team; (2) assessed technologies  that have been under development while the program was suspended  that could potentially be used to support a W78 replacement; and (3)  initiated plans for the facilities and capabilities needed to provide the  nuclear and nonnuclear components for the warhead. At the time of our review, NNSA and DOD officials stated that, in  response to the 2018 NPR, they planned to restart a program that would  focus on replacing the capabilities of the W78 for the Air Force; however,  the extent to which the program would focus on providing a nuclear  explosive package for the Navy was uncertain. In fiscal year 2018, NNSA started to  establish the program management functions needed to execute a  W78 replacement program, as required in the Office of Defense  Programs’ program execution instruction. According to NNSA’s preliminary schedule, the program will:
Restart in Phase 6.2 (Feasibility and Design Options) in the third  quarter of fiscal year 2019. According to  NNSA officials, the assessment identified and evaluated technologies that  NNSA would have available for the next LEP, irrespective of whether the  final program will replace the W78 warhead in ICBMs only or will also be  used in the Navy’s SLBMs. A technology deemed “must do” means that it is the only  technology available that can meet a minimum requirement (or  “need”) for the warhead to function. The technology that previously  fulfilled this requirement is generally obsolete or no longer produced,  and there are no alternatives. According to NNSA’s manager for the W78 replacement program and key  staff involved in preparing to restart the program, when the program  restarts in fiscal year 2019 they will use the assessment to identify  specific technologies or groups of technologies (i.e., trade spaces) to  further evaluate for potential use in the warhead. Coordination with Facilities and Capabilities

The manager of the W78 replacement program said that he has begun to  identify the facilities and capabilities at the laboratories and production  sites that will be needed to provide the nuclear and nonnuclear  components for a W78 replacement, and plans to draft formal  agreements to help ensure coordination with them. Among other things, a major impact report identifies  aspects of the program—including facilities and capabilities to support it— that could affect the program’s schedule and technical risk, according to  the Phase 6.X guidelines. Because  these activities are separately managed and supported outside the W78  replacement program, NNSA considers progress on them to represent a  critical external risk to the program. NNSA  and DOD provided technical comments, which we incorporated as  appropriate. NNSA was directed by the Nuclear Weapons  Council to suspend the program in fiscal year 2014 and the 2018 Nuclear  Posture Review directed NNSA to restart the program in fiscal year 2019. The instruction also describes the level of program  management rigor that the LEP must achieve as it advances through the  Department of Defense and NNSA process for managing life extension  programs called the Phase 6.X process.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Department of Defense and NNSA have sought for nearly a decade to replace the capabilities of the aging W78 nuclear warhead used by the U.S. Air Force. NNSA undertakes LEPs to refurbish or replace the capabilities of nuclear weapons components. In fiscal year 2014, NNSA was directed to suspend a program that was evaluating a capability that could replace the W78 and also be used by the U.S. Navy. NNSA's most recent estimate—reported in October 2018—was that the combined program would cost about $10 billion to $15 billion. NNSA has been directed by the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review to restart a program to replace the W78 for the Air Force in fiscal year 2019. The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review also directed NNSA and the Navy to further evaluate whether the Navy could also use the warhead.
Senate report 115-125 included a provision for GAO to review NNSA's progress on the program to replace the W78.
GAO's report describes NNSA's steps in key early planning areas—including program management, technology assessment, and coordination with facilities and capabilities—to prepare to restart a program to replace the W78. GAO reviewed documentation on areas such as program management, technologies, and facilities needed for the program, and interviewed NNSA and DOD officials.

What GAO Found

The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has taken steps to prepare to restart a life extension program (LEP) to replace the capabilities of the Air Force's W78 nuclear warhead—a program which was previously suspended. According to NNSA officials, these steps are typically needed to conduct any LEP. Therefore, they can be undertaken despite the current uncertainty about whether the final program will develop the warhead for the Air Force only or for both the Air Force and the Navy. Specifically, NNSA has taken the steps described below:
Program management. NNSA has begun to establish the program management functions needed to execute a W78 replacement program, as required by NNSA's program execution instruction. For example, NNSA has started to develop a risk management plan to define the process for identifying and mitigating risks. In addition, NNSA has created a preliminary schedule to restart the program in fiscal year 2019 in the feasibility and design options phase with the goal of producing the first unit in fiscal year 2030. (See figure)
Technology assessment. In May 2018, NNSA completed an assessment of 126 technologies for potential use in a W78 replacement. These included nine technologies that are needed to replace obsolete or no longer available technologies or materials. These are considered “must-do” because they are the only technologies or materials available to meet minimum warhead requirements established by the Department of Defense and NNSA. NNSA officials said that in fiscal year 2019 they will use the assessment to further evaluate technologies for potential use in the warhead.
Coordination with facilities and capabilities. NNSA's program manager is identifying the facilities and capabilities needed to provide components for the warhead. This information will be used to produce a report that identifies aspects of the program—including facilities and capabilities to support it—that could affect the program's schedule and technical risk. However, several of the needed facilities must be built or repaired, and these activities are separately managed and supported outside the W78 replacement program—representing a critical external risk to the program. As mitigation, the program intends to coordinate with the offices that oversee these facilities to draft agreements that describe the work to be performed and timeframes, among other things.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making recommendations. NNSA and DOD provided technical comments, which GAO incorporated as appropriate.