As a result, non-response follow-up is the Bureau’s largest and  most costly field operation. The Bureau Plans to Rely Heavily on IT for the 2020 Census

The Bureau plans to rely heavily on both new and legacy IT systems and  infrastructure to support the 2018 End-to-End Test and the 2020 Census  operations. Key Risks are Jeopardizing a Cost- Effective Enumeration

We added the 2020 Census to our list of high-risk programs in February,  2017, because (1) innovations never before used in prior enumerations  will not be fully tested; (2) the Bureau continues to face challenges in  implementing and securing IT systems; and (3) the Bureau needs to  control any further cost growth and develop reliable cost estimates. While the planned innovations could help control costs, they also  introduce new risks, in part, because they include new procedures and  technology that have not been used extensively in earlier decennials, if at  all. To address  some of these challenges we have made several recommendations  aimed at improving reengineered field operations, using administrative  records, verifying the accuracy of the address list, and securing census  responses via the Internet  The Bureau has held a series of operational tests since 2012, but  according to the Bureau, has scaled back recent tests because of funding  uncertainties. Without sufficient testing, operational problems can go undiscovered and  the opportunity to improve operations will be lost, in part because the  2018 End-to-End Test is the last opportunity to demonstrate census  technology and procedures across a range of geographic locations,  housing types, and demographic groups. Our ongoing work has indicated that the Bureau faces significant  challenges in managing the schedule for developing and testing systems  for the 2018 End-to-End Test that began in August 2017. We concluded that, for the 2018 End-to- End Test, it will be important that these security assessments are  completed in a timely manner and that risks are at an acceptable level  before the systems are deployed. The delays during the 2017 Test and preparations for the 2018 End-to- End Test raises concerns regarding the Bureau’s ability to effectively  perform contractor management. Because many of the systems that will be a part of the 2018 End-to-End  Test are not yet fully developed, the Bureau has not finalized all of the  security controls to be implemented; assessed those controls; developed  plans to remediate control weaknesses; and determined whether there is  time to fully remediate any deficiencies before the systems are needed for  the test. We plan to continue  monitoring the Bureau’s progress in securing its IT systems and data as  part of our ongoing work. Key Risk #3: Lack of Reliable Costs Estimates Limits Support for 2020 Census Funding

Earlier this month, the Department announced that it had updated the  October 2015 life-cycle cost estimate and now projects the life-cycle cost  of the 2020 Census will be $15.6 billion, more than a $3 billion (27  percent) increase over the Bureau’s earlier estimate. The higher  estimated life-cycle cost is due, in part, as we reported in June 2016, to  the Bureau’s failure to meet best practices for a quality cost-estimate. The Bureau and Department are still finalizing the documentation used to  develop the $15.6 billion cost-estimate. Until these documents are  complete and made available for inspection, we cannot determine the  reliability of the estimate. For example, our ongoing work has  indicated that the Bureau is facing staffing challenges that could impact  its ability to manage and oversee the technical integration contractor. Over the past  decade, we have made 84 recommendations specific to the 2020 Census  to help address these and other issues. The Bureau has generally agreed  with those recommendations; however 36 of them had not been  implemented as of October 2017. For these reasons, the 2020 Census is a GAO high risk area. Appendix I: Priority Recommendations from GAO’s Work Related to the 2020 Census

The Department of Commerce and Census Bureau have taken some  actions to address our recommendations related to implementation of the  2020 Census; however, a large number of recommendations remain  open.
Why GAO Did This Study

One of the Bureau's most important functions is to conduct a complete and accurate decennial census of the U.S. population. The decennial census is mandated by the Constitution and provides vital data for the nation. A complete count of the nation's population is an enormous undertaking as the Bureau seeks to control the cost of the census, implement operational innovations, and use new and modified IT systems. In recent years, GAO has identified challenges that raise serious concerns about the Bureau's ability to conduct a cost-effective count. For these reasons, GAO added the 2020 Census to its High-Risk list in February 2017.
In light of these challenges, GAO was asked to testify about the reasons the 2020 Census was placed on the High-Risk List. To do so, GAO summarized its prior work regarding the Bureau's planning efforts for the 2020 Census. GAO also included observations from its ongoing work on the 2018 End-to-End Test. This information is related to, among other things, recent decisions on preparations for the 2020 Census; progress on key systems to be used for the 2018 End-to-End Test, including the status of IT security assessments; execution of the address canvassing operation at the test sites; and efforts to update the life-cycle cost estimate.

What GAO Found

GAO added the 2020 Census to its high-risk list because of challenges associated with (1) developing and testing key innovations; (2) implementing and securing IT systems; and (3) controlling any further cost growth and preparing reliable cost estimates. The Census Bureau (Bureau) is planning several innovations for the 2020 Decennial Census, including re-engineering field operations by relying on automation, using administrative records to supplement census data, verifying addresses in-office using on-screen imagery, and allowing the public to respond using the Internet. These innovations show promise for controlling costs, but they also introduce new risks, in part because they have not been used extensively in earlier enumerations, if at all. As a result, robust testing is needed to ensure that key systems and operations will function as planned. However, citing budgetary uncertainties, the Bureau canceled its 2017 field test and then scaled back its 2018 End-to End Test. Without sufficient testing, operational problems can go undiscovered and the opportunity to improve operations will be lost, as key census-taking activities will not be tested across a range of geographic locations, housing types, and demographic groups.
The Bureau continues to face challenges in managing and overseeing the information technology (IT) programs, systems, and contracts supporting the 2020 Census. For example, GAO's ongoing work indicates that the system development schedule leading up to the 2018 End-to-End test has experienced several delays. Further, the Bureau has not addressed several security risks and challenges to secure its systems and data, including making certain that security assessments are completed in a timely manner and that risks are at an acceptable level. Given that certain operations for the 2018 End-to-End Test began in August 2017, it is important that the Bureau quickly address these challenges. GAO plans to monitor the Bureau's progress as part of its ongoing work.
In addition, the Bureau needs to control any further cost growth and develop cost estimates that reflect best practices. Earlier this month, the Department of Commerce (Department) announced that it had updated the October 2015 life-cycle cost-estimate and now projects the life-cycle cost of the 2020 Census will be $15.6 billion, more than $3 billion (27 percent) increase over its earlier estimate. The higher estimated life-cycle cost is due, in part, to the Bureau's failure to meet best practices for a quality cost-estimate. The Bureau and Department are still finalizing the documentation used to develop the $15.6 billion cost-estimate. Until these documents are complete and made available for inspection, GAO cannot determine the reliability of the estimate.

What GAO Recommends

Over the past decade, we have made 84 recommendations specific to the 2020 Census to address the issues raised in this testimony and others. The Bureau generally has agreed with our recommendations. As of October 2017, 36 recommendations had not been implemented.