Further, achieving a complete and accurate census is becoming an  increasingly daunting task, in part, because the nation’s population is  growing larger, more diverse, and more reluctant to participate. Specifically, its plan for 2020  includes four broad innovation areas (re-engineering field operations,  using administrative records, verifying addresses in-office, and  developing an Internet self-response option). However, the innovations  also introduce new risks, in part, because they include new procedures  and technology that have not been used extensively in earlier decennials,  if at all. Our prior work has shown the importance of the Bureau  conducting a robust testing program, including the 2018 End-to-End  Test. (See figure 3.) Our  July 2017 report recommended, and the Bureau agreed, that the Bureau  should use its evaluations before 2020 to determine the implications of in- office address canvassing on the cost and quality of address canvassing,  and use this information to justify decisions related to its re-engineered  address canvassing approach. The Bureau Continues to Face Challenges in Implementing and Securing Key IT Systems

		The Bureau Continues to Face Challenges Implementing and Managing IT Systems

We have previously reported that the Bureau faced challenges in  managing and overseeing IT programs, systems, and contractors  supporting the 2020 Census. We also have ongoing work reviewing each of these  areas. We concluded that, for the 2018 End-to- End Test, it will be important that these security assessments are  completed in a timely manner and that risks are at an acceptable level  before the systems are deployed. Yet, our ongoing work determined that the Bureau’s $3.4 billion cost  estimate does not reflect its current plans for acquiring IT to be used  during the 2020 Census and that the related costs are likely to increase:  In August 2016, the Bureau awarded a technical integration contract  for about $886 million, a cost that was not reflected in the $3.4 billion  expected IT costs. To address these issues, in October 2017,  officials stated that the Bureau is developing a new cost estimate for the  entire 2020 Census program, which they expect to release by the end of  this fall. The delays during the 2017 Test and preparations for the 2018 End-to- End Test raises concerns regarding the Bureau’s ability to effectively  perform contractor management. Because many of the systems that will be a part of the 2018 End-to-End  Test are not yet fully developed, the Bureau has not finalized all of the  security controls to be implemented; assessed those controls; developed  plans to remediate control weaknesses; and determined whether there is  time to fully remediate any deficiencies before the systems are needed for  the test. We  plan to continue monitoring the Bureau’s progress in securing its IT  systems and data as part of our ongoing work. The Bureau Needs to Improve the Reliability of Its 2020 Cost Estimate

		2020 Census Cost Estimate Does Not Reflect Best Practices

In June 2016, we reported that the Bureau’s October 2015 update of its  life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census did not conform to the four  characteristics that constitute best practices, and, as a result, the  estimate was unreliable. The Cost of the 2020 Census Will Likely Be Higher Than Originally Planned

While the Bureau has not updated its October 2015 cost estimate, several  events since then indicate that the cost of the current design will be  higher. In March 2017, the Bureau suspended part of how it is verifying  address in-office procedures using on-screen imagery—one of its four  key design innovations intended to control the cost of the 2020  Census. However, since the Bureau did not fully follow best  practices for developing and maintaining the life-cycle cost estimate, as  previously described, annual budget requests based on that cost estimate  may not be fully informed. A high-quality cost estimate is the foundation of a good budget. We will continue to monitor the Bureau’s  efforts to address these recommendations. For these reasons, the 2020 Census is a GAO high risk area. GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments

If you have any questions about this statement, please contact David A.  Powner at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at pownerd@gao.gov or Robert  Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or by e-mail at goldenkoffr@gao.gov. Appendix I: Status as of August 2017 of Development and Integration Testing for Systems in the 2018 End-to-End Test

As part of its 2018 End-to-End Test, the Census Bureau (Bureau) plans to  deploy 43 systems incrementally to support nine operations from  December 2016 through the end of the test in April 2019.
Why GAO Did This Study

One of the Bureau's most important functions is to conduct a complete and accurate decennial census of the U.S. population, which is mandated by the Constitution and provides vital data for the nation. A complete count of the nation's population is an enormous undertaking as the Bureau seeks to control the cost of the census, implement operational innovations, and use new and modified IT systems. In recent years, GAO has identified challenges that raise serious concerns about the Bureau's ability to conduct a cost-effective count. For these reasons, GAO added the 2020 Census to its high-risk list in February 2017.
In light of these challenges, GAO was asked to testify about the Bureau's progress in preparing for the 2020 Census. To do so, GAO summarized its prior work regarding the Bureau's planning efforts for the 2020 Census. GAO also included observations from its ongoing work on the 2018 End-to-End Test. This information is related to, among other things, recent decisions on preparations for the 2020 Census; progress on key systems to be used for the 2018 End-to-End Test, including the status of IT security assessments; execution of the test at three test sites; and efforts to update the life-cycle cost estimate.

What GAO Found

The Census Bureau (Bureau) is planning several innovations for the 2020 Decennial Census, including re-engineering field operations, using administrative records to supplement census data, verifying addresses in-office using on-screen imagery, and allowing the public to respond using the Internet. These innovations show promise for controlling costs, but they also introduce new risks, in part because they include new procedures and technologies that have not been used extensively in earlier decennial censuses, if at all. GAO's prior work has emphasized the importance of the Bureau conducting a robust testing program to demonstrate that the systems and operations perform as intended under census-like conditions prior to the 2020 Census. However, because of budget uncertainties the Bureau canceled its 2017 field test and then scaled back its 2018 End-to End Test, placing these innovation areas more at risk.
The Bureau continues to face challenges in managing and overseeing the information technology (IT) programs, systems, and contracts supporting the 2020 Census. For example, GAO's ongoing work indicates that the system development schedule leading up to the 2018 End-to-End test has experienced several delays. Further, the Bureau has not yet addressed several security risks and challenges to secure its systems and data, including making certain that security assessments are completed in a timely manner and that risks are at an acceptable level. Given that certain operations for the 2018 End-to-End Test began in August 2017, it is important that the Bureau quickly address these challenges. GAO plans to monitor the Bureau's progress as part of its ongoing work.
In addition, the Bureau's cost estimate is not reliable and is out-of-date. Specifically, in June 2016, GAO reported that the cost estimate for the 2020 Census did not fully reflect characteristics of a high-quality estimate and could not be considered reliable. Moreover, since the Bureau did not follow cost estimation best practices, its annual budget requests based on the cost estimate may not be fully informed. Additionally, the Bureau has not yet updated its October 2015 cost estimate, but GAO expects that the cost of the current census design (around $12.5 billion in 2020 constant dollars) will increase due to, for example, expected increases in 2020 program IT costs (see figure). GAO made several recommendations to address these concerns, and the Bureau plans to address these recommendations in an updated cost estimate to be released later this fall.

What GAO Recommends

Over the past 4 years, we have made 33 recommendations specific to the 2020 Census to address the issues raised in this testimony and others. As of October 2017, the Bureau had fully implemented 10 of the recommendations, and was at varying stages of implementing the remaining recommendations.
or Robert Goldenkoff at (202) 512-2757 or goldenkoffr@gao.gov .