When  the census misses a person who should have been included, it results in  an undercount. The Bureau has  also relied on a communications campaign including paid advertisements  in national and targeted markets to help build awareness of the census. The Bureau Plans to Enhance Outreach to and the Enumeration of Hard-to-Count Groups in 2020, but Estimated Spending Is Similar to 2010

		The Bureau Plans Enhancements to Key 2020 Census Operations to Address Complexity Enumerating Hard-to- Count Groups

The Bureau will continue to rely on its Integrated Partnership and  Communications operation—designed to communicate the importance of  census participation and motivate self-response—as a key component of  its efforts to improve enumeration of hard-to-count persons in the 2020  Census. For example, to help  address the complex undercount of young children, the Bureau revised  the census questionnaire and instructions to enumerators to more  explicitly mention the inclusion of grandchildren and any non-relatives in  household population counts. Table 3  below summarizes changes in the number of languages the Bureau plans  to support. The Bureau Plans Total Spending for Its 2020 Census Outreach Efforts Similar to that for 2010 Census, and to Hire More Partnership Specialists Instead of Assistants

The Bureau estimates total spending for its 2020 partnership and  communications outreach efforts to be similar to what it reported  spending on those efforts for the 2010 Census after adjusting for inflation. According to the Bureau’s current planning  documents, it will hire nearly twice as many partnership specialists— responsible for building relationships and obtaining commitments from  organizations—to support the 2020 Census than it hired to support the  2010 Census. The Bureau Started Partnership Hiring Earlier for the 2020 Census Than for 2010

An evaluation conducted by the Bureau of its 2010 partnership efforts  recommended that, for the 2020 Census, the Bureau hire at least a core  group of partnership staff 3 years prior to census day instead of the 2  years prior as was done for the 2010 Census. The Bureau Faces Internal Management and External Workforce Challenges in Improving the Enumeration of Hard- to-Count Groups in 2020

		The Bureau Faces an Internal Management Challenge Integrating Its Many Hard-to-Count Efforts

According to the Bureau and as shown in figure 5, over one-third of its 35  operations (14 of 35) are designed, at least in part, to help improve the  enumeration of hard-to-count groups. This is the Bureau’s first comprehensive look at the hard- to-count goal for the 2020 Census. Bureau officials said that they  developed the document because they realized that looking across the  Bureau’s operations and how they relate to difficulties enumerating hard- to-count groups would provide them a useful perspective that could help  identify any gaps or interdependencies in their various hard-to-count  efforts. The detailed operational plans for 10 of the Bureau’s 14 hard-to- count-related operations have been documented and released  publicly. With less than 2 years to go until  Census Day (April 1, 2020), there is little room for delay in considering  how forthcoming details on hard-to-count efforts yet to be finalized— or changed based on ongoing testing or other decisions—may have  consequences on other related efforts. A significant  amount of hard-to-count-related planning for the 2020 Census is currently  underway, and in the less than 2 years remaining before Census Day, it  will be important for Bureau management to maintain a focus that helps  ensure that hard-to-count-related decisions yet to be made as well as any  changes to those already made are integrated with other related efforts. Hiring Partnership Staff with Critical Skills in a Tight Labor Market Creates a Workforce Challenge for the Bureau and It Lacks Data from 2010 to Guide Its Efforts

As noted previously, a key component of the 2010 Census was the hiring  of partnership staff to help build relationships with and obtain  commitments from local organizations to help encourage census  participation, particularly among hard-to-count groups. However, the Bureau faces a significant  challenge in hiring these kinds of staff because it is operating in a much  tighter labor market than it did prior to the 2010 Census. Bureau officials in the regional field offices reported observing  smaller applicant pools, declined job offers, and early turnover due to a  lower pay rate the Bureau offered compared to the local economy. Recommendations for Executive Action

We are making the following two recommendations to the Department of  Commerce and the Census Bureau:
The Secretary of Commerce should ensure the Director of the U.S.
Census Bureau takes steps to ensure that forthcoming changes and  decisions on hard-to-count related efforts are integrated with other  hard-to-count related efforts across the Bureau’s decentralized  operations. The Census Bureau also  provided technical comments that we incorporated, as appropriate.
Why GAO Did This Study

A goal for the 2020 Census is to count everyone once, only once, and in the right place. Achieving a complete and accurate census is becoming an increasingly complex task, in part because the nation's population is growing larger, more diverse, and more reluctant to participate. When the census misses a person who should have been included, it results in an undercount. Historically, certain sociodemographic groups have been undercounted in the census, which is particularly problematic given the many uses of census data.
GAO was asked to review the Bureau's plans for enumerating hard-to-count groups in the 2020 Census. This report examines (1) the Bureau's plans for improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count in 2020, and how that compares with 2010; and (2) the challenges the Bureau faces in improving the enumeration of the hard-to-count in 2020. GAO reviewed Bureau planning, budget, operational, and evaluation documents as well as documents of the hard-to-count related working groups of the Bureau's National Advisory Committee; and interviewed Bureau officials.

What GAO Found

The Census Bureau's (Bureau) plans for enumerating groups considered hard-to-count, such as minorities, renters, and young children, in the 2020 Census includes the use of both traditional and enhanced initiatives. For example, the Bureau plans to continue using certain outreach efforts used in 2010, such as a communications campaign with paid advertising, partnerships with local organizations, and targeted outreach to immigrant and faith-based organizations. The Bureau also plans enhancements to its outreach efforts compared to 2010. For example, to help address the undercount of young children, the Bureau revised the census questionnaire and instructions to enumerators to more explicitly include grandchildren in counts. Other planned changes include:
Expanded languages: The Bureau plans to offer more non-English language response options and instructional materials than for 2010.
More partnership specialists: The Bureau plans to hire nearly twice as many partnership specialists as it had planned for the 2010 Census to recruit partner organizations in local communities.
Earlier partnership hiring : The Bureau started hiring a small number of partnership staff in October 2015—2 years earlier than it did for 2010.
While efforts have been made, enumerating hard-to-count persons in 2020 will not be easy. Aside from the inherent difficulties of counting such individuals, the Bureau faces certain management challenges related to its hard-to-count efforts.
First, the Bureau's hard-to-count efforts are distributed across over one third of its 35 operations supporting the 2020 Census. And while decentralized operations can provide flexibility, to enhance visibility over these hard-to-count efforts, the Bureau recently developed a draft operational document. However, the Bureau will continue to face challenges in ensuring its hard-to-count efforts integrate with each other. For example, some of the detailed plans for 10 of the hard-to-count efforts were released in 2016 and are awaiting updates, while 4 plans have yet to be released. With less than 2 years until Census Day (April 1, 2020), there is little room for delay. Therefore, to ensure that emerging plans related to the hard-to-count efforts integrate with existing plans, Bureau management will need to continue its focus on control of the changes in hard-to-count efforts moving forward.
Second, the Bureau faces a challenge of a tighter labor market than existed prior to 2010 that could potentially create shortfalls or delays in its hiring of partnership staff who are needed to reach small and hard-to-count communities. In early hiring for 2020, Bureau officials reported smaller than expected applicant pools, declined offers, and turnover. Although it has plans to identify critical skills for 2020 and for tailored recruiting, collecting data on its hiring efforts will also be important. Currently, the Bureau lacks data from its 2010 Census that could have helped inform its partnership-staff hiring efforts for 2020.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Bureau take steps to ensure that forthcoming changes and decisions on its hard-to-count related efforts are integrated with other operational efforts and that it collects data on its 2020 partnership hiring efforts.
The Department of Commerce agreed with GAO's recommendations, and the Bureau provided technical comments that were incorporated, as appropriate.