The agency also regulates  other aspects of commercial trucking, such as the maximum number of  hours truck drivers are allowed to drive. There are various automated vehicle  technologies that could help guide a vehicle capable of driving itself,  including cameras and other sensors (see fig. Widespread Deployment of Platooning and Self- Driving Long-Haul Trucks Is Likely Years Away, and Several Factors Will Affect Timeframes

		Platooning and Self- Driving Trucks Are Being Developed, Generally for Long-Haul Trucking

According to stakeholders we spoke with and literature we reviewed,  automated trucks, including self-driving trucks, are being developed,  generally for long-haul trucking. However, most  stakeholders either did not provide a timeframe for, or said they did  not know, when such trucks might become available. This may be because, for example, more parties  may become involved. Workforce Changes Due to Automated Trucking Will Depend in Part on the Role of Future Drivers or Operators, and Will Take Time to Develop

		Workforce Effects of Automated Trucking Could Include Changes to Employment Levels, Wages, Retention, and Skills

Predicting workforce changes in light of future automated trucking is  inherently challenging, as it is based on uncertainties about how the  trucking industry will respond to new technologies that face operational,  regulatory, and other factors that could affect deployment. However, stakeholders we spoke with and literature we reviewed  presented two main scenarios for the future trucking workforce: one in  which trucks would be self-driving for part of a route, without a driver or  operator, and the other in which trucks would require a driver or operator  in the truck for the entire route. As a  result, any future job losses could first occur there. Potential Effects If Driver or Operator Remains in Truck

Most officials from truck driver training schools, organizations  representing truck drivers, and workforce development boards envisioned  automated trucks as continuing to need either a driver or some kind of  operator in the truck, with several noting that drivers may need to do non- driving tasks. Stakeholders Said the Anticipated Timeframe for Automated Trucking’s Effects on the Workforce Provides an Opportunity for a Federal Response

While many stakeholders we spoke with and several studies we reviewed  stated that the potential workforce effects of automated trucking were  difficult to predict, they generally agreed that any effect would not occur  for at least 5 to 10 years. DOL’s analysis anticipated that automation  will not reduce the number of drivers by 2026. Congress has directed DOT to consult with DOL to study the workforce  impacts of automated trucking technology. DOL and DOT Do Not Have Plans to Gather and Share Information about the Potential Workforce Effects of Automated Trucking as Technology Evolves

			Convening Key Groups of Stakeholders on an Ongoing Basis to Gather Information

DOL and DOT have taken some steps to convene stakeholders to inform  DOT’s analysis of automated trucking in advance of March 2019. Continuing to convene stakeholders could also help agencies to identify  any information or data gaps that may need to be addressed to  understand the potential workforce effects of automated trucking. However, there  are close to 1.9 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers across the  country, making the trucking industry an important segment of the  national workforce. GAO staff who made key contributions to this report are listed in appendix V.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to examine: (1) what is known about how and when  automated vehicle technologies could affect commercial trucks; (2) what  is known about how the adoption of automated trucks could affect the  commercial trucking workforce; and (3) the extent to which the  Department of Transportation (DOT) and Department of Labor (DOL) are  preparing to assist drivers whose jobs may be affected by automated  trucking. Analyzed federal data.
Why GAO Did This Study

Automated vehicle technology may eventually make commercial trucking more efficient and safer, but also has the potential to change the employment landscape for nearly 1.9 million heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers, among others. GAO was asked to examine the potential workforce effects of automated trucking.
This report addresses (1) what is known about how and when automated vehicle technologies could affect commercial trucks; (2) what is known about how the adoption of automated trucks could affect the commercial trucking workforce; and (3) the extent to which DOT and DOL are preparing to assist drivers whose jobs may be affected. GAO reviewed research since 2014 on automated trucking technology, viewed demonstrations of this technology, and analyzed federal data on the truck driver workforce. GAO also interviewed officials from DOT and DOL, as well as a range of stakeholders, including technology developers, companies operating their own trucking fleets, truck driver training schools, truck driver associations, and workforce development boards.

What GAO Found

Automated trucks, including self-driving trucks, are being developed for long-haul trucking operations, but widespread commercial deployment is likely years or decades away, according to stakeholders. Most technology developers said they were developing trucks that can travel without drivers for part of a route, and some stakeholders said such trucks may become available within 5 to 10 years. Various technologies, including sensors and cameras, could help guide a truck capable of driving itself (see figure). However, the adoption of this technology depends on factors such as technological limitations and public acceptance.
Stakeholders GAO interviewed predicted two main scenarios for how the adoption of automated trucks could affect the trucking workforce, which varied depending on the future role of drivers or operators. Technology developers, among others, described one scenario in which self-driving trucks are used on highway portions of long-haul trips. Stakeholders noted this scenario would likely reduce the number of long-haul truck drivers needed and could decrease wages because of lower demand for such drivers. In contrast, groups representing truck drivers, among others, predicted a scenario in which a truck would have an operator at all times for complex driving and other non-driving tasks, and the number of drivers or operators would not change as significantly. However, stakeholders lacked consensus on the potential effect this scenario might have on wages and driver retention. Most stakeholders said automated trucking could create new jobs, and that any workforce effects would take time—providing an opportunity for a federal response, such as any needed policy changes.
The Department of Transportation (DOT) is consulting with the Department of Labor (DOL) to conduct a congressionally-directed analysis of the workforce impacts of automated trucking by March 2019. As part of this analysis, DOT and DOL have coordinated to conduct stakeholder outreach. However, they do not currently plan to convene stakeholders on a regular basis to gather information because they have focused on completing this analysis first. Continuing to convene stakeholders could provide the agencies foresight about policy changes that may be needed to prepare for any workforce effects as this technology evolves.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is making four recommendations, including that both DOT and DOL should continue to convene key stakeholders as the automated trucking technology evolves to help the agencies analyze and respond to potential workforce changes that may result. DOT and DOL agreed with the recommendations.