DOD Expects to Play a Supporting Role to Other Federal Agencies Involved in the Arctic Based on a Low Level of Military Threat and Is Monitoring the Security Environment for Changes

Recent strategic guidance on the Arctic establishes a supporting role for  DOD relative to other federal agencies, based on a low level of military  threat expected in the region. However, DOD continues to monitor the  security environment in the region and is tracking indicators that,  depending on the outcomes, could change its threat assessment and  affect the department’s future role. Between the release of the National Strategy in May 2013 and the  Implementation Plan in January 2014, DOD issued its Arctic Strategy in  November 2013. The strategy establishes the department’s strategic  approach to the Arctic and identifies the timeframes to be used for  planning: near-term (present–2020), mid-term (2020–2030), and far-term  (beyond 2030).The Arctic Strategy emphasizes that as sea ice diminishes  and the Arctic opens to more activity, DOD may have an increased role  supporting other federal agencies in the region. This  senior-level event is aimed at building confidence and encouraging  discussion of the Arctic among the security forces of Arctic and non-Arctic  nations. DOD also leads and is involved in a number of training exercises focused  on the Arctic to build partner capacity in the region. For example, DOD  leads the annual Arctic Zephyr exercise—a multilateral scenario-based  exercise that focuses on search and rescue operations in the Arctic. In addition, DOD is identified as a  supporting agency for a number of other activities identified in the  implementation plan, including efforts focused on communications in the  Arctic. DOD Is Updating Its Regional Plans for the Arctic and Conducting Analysis to Determine Future Capability Needs, but the Uncertain Pace of Climate Change and Commercial Activity May Affect Its Timelines

U.S. Northern Command—the DOD advocate for Arctic capabilities—is in  the process of updating its regional plans based on recent DOD guidance  and is conducting analysis to determine future capability needs. Northern Command is updating the Commander’s Estimate for the  Arctic, which establishes the commander’s intent and missions in the  Arctic and identifies near-, mid-, and long-term goals. Northern Command is reviewing other Arctic mission areas including  maritime mine countermeasures, undersea surveillance, and maritime  domain awareness. DOD’s Arctic Strategy further states that the uncertainty  around the pace of change creates a challenge for the department to  balance the risk of having inadequate capabilities or insufficient capacity  when required to perform these operations with the cost of making  premature or unnecessary investments. According to the strategy, DOD  will mitigate this risk by monitoring the changing Arctic conditions to  determine the appropriate timing for future capability investments. This variable rate of change can affect  DOD’s ability to plan for future conditions in the region. Agency Comments

We are not making any recommendations in this report. DOD  provided written technical comments, which we incorporated into the  report as appropriate. Appendix II: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

The objectives of this report are to determine (1) the role the Department  of Defense (DOD) expects to play in the Arctic based on recent strategic  guidance and its assessment of the security environment in the region,  (2) the actions, if any, DOD has taken to address near-term capability  needs, and (3) the efforts DOD has under way to update plans for the  Arctic and identify future capability needs. To  identify the role DOD expects to play in the Arctic based on recent  strategic guidance and its assessment of the security environment in the  region, we reviewed national, DOD, military service, and combatant  command strategies and guidance that have been developed on the  Arctic including the 2013 National Strategy for the Arctic Region, DOD’s  November 2013 Arctic Strategy, and the U.S. Navy’s February 2014  Arctic Roadmap for 2014-2030, among others. In June 2015, we issued a classified  version of this report that includes detailed information on the security  environment in the Arctic and indicators that my change DOD’s threat  assessment.
Why GAO Did This Study

Decreasing seasonal sea ice in the Arctic has made some Arctic waters navigable for longer periods and, as a result, may contribute to new economic opportunities in commercial shipping, oil exploration, and tourism. This could eventually increase the need for a U.S. military and homeland security presence in the Arctic, particularly in the maritime environment.
House Report 113-446, which accompanied a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, included a provision that GAO review DOD's Arctic capabilities.
This report discusses (1) the role of DOD in the Arctic based on recent strategic guidance and its assessment of the security environment in the region, (2) the actions taken by DOD to address near-term capability needs, and (3) the efforts DOD has under way to update plans for the Arctic and identify future capability needs.
GAO reviewed national, DOD, military service, and combatant command strategies; reviewed studies on near-term capabilities needed and examined efforts initiated to address those needs based on supporting documentation; reviewed Northern Command's regional plans that cover the Arctic and identified ongoing planning activities; and interviewed agency officials. GAO also issued a classified version of this report in June 2015 that includes details on the Arctic's security environment.
GAO is not making any recommendations in this report. DOD provided written technical comments, which we incorporated into the report as appropriate.

What GAO Found

Recent strategic guidance on the Arctic issued by the administration and the Department of Defense (DOD) establish a supporting role for the department relative to other federal agencies, based on a low level of military threat expected in the region. In January 2014 the administration issued the Implementation Plan to the National Strategy for the Arctic Region that designated DOD as having a largely supporting role for the activities outlined in the plan. Additionally, DOD's Arctic Strategy issued in November 2013 and the Navy's Arctic Roadmap 2014-2030 issued in February 2014 emphasize that, as sea ice diminishes and the Arctic Ocean opens to more activity, the department may be called upon more frequently to support other federal agencies and work with partners to ensure a secure and stable region. To further its role, DOD participates in a number of forums focused on military security cooperation in the Arctic, including the Arctic Security Forces Roundtable, a senior-level event aimed at encouraging discussion among the security forces of Arctic and non-Arctic nations. In addition, DOD leads training exercises focused on building partner capacity in the region, including Arctic Zephyr, a multilateral scenario-based exercise. DOD continues to monitor the security environment in the region and is tracking indicators that could change its threat assessment and affect DOD's future role.
U.S. Northern Command—the DOD advocate for Arctic capabilities—stated that it is in the process of updating its regional plans for the Arctic and is conducting analysis to determine future capability needs. For example, Northern Command is updating the Commander's Estimate for the Arctic, which establishes the commander's intent and missions in the Arctic and identifies near-, mid-, and long-term goals. Additionally, the command is conducting studies of various Arctic mission areas, such as maritime homeland defense and undersea surveillance, to identify future capability needs. However, according to DOD's Arctic Strategy , uncertainty remains around the pace of change and commercial activity in the region that may affect its planning timelines. Difficulty in developing accurate sea ice models, variability in the Arctic's climate, and the uncertain rate of activity in the region create challenges for DOD to balance the risk of having inadequate capabilities or insufficient capacity when required to operate in the region with the cost of making premature or unnecessary investments. According to its Arctic Strategy , DOD plans to mitigate this risk by monitoring the changing Arctic conditions to determine the appropriate timing for capability investments.