With this "leg-up," Putin easily won election in March 2000 and was reelected with no real opposition four years later. Putin's presidency was a period of relative political stability, but as the end of his second term drew near, the succession question reemerged as a burning issue. Putin explained this move as necessary to "prepare the country" for forthcoming elections, which immediately triggered speculation that Zubkov might be Putin's choice for president in 2008, perhaps as a "place holder," a mechanism that would allow Putin to retain control and/or return to the presidency after a brief interregnum. But in Russia's election cycle, the vote for president (March 2, 2008) was preceded the parliamentary election (December 2, 2007), which was seen as a harbinger of the presidential contest. And despite Putin's apparent genuine popularity, they were determined to take no chances on the outcome. The preordained result of the December 2, 2007 balloting for the Duma was a sweep by United Russia, which reportedly won 64.3% of the popular vote and 315 of the 450 seats—more than the two-thirds majority required to amend the constitution. (See CRS Report RS22770, Russia ' s December 2007 Legislative Election: Outcome and Implications , by [author name scrubbed].) The 42-year-old Medvedev, a long-time Putin protégé, had headed the Presidential Administration before Putin made him First Deputy Prime Minister in 2005. One day after his anointment, Medvedev announced that, if elected, he would ask Putin to serve as prime minister. Under the present super-presidential constitution, the prime minister serves at the pleasure of the president and may be dismissed by the president at any time. Others suggest that President Medvedev may voluntarily cede substantial power to Prime Minister Putin, allowing the mentor to continue wielding real power. Another scenario envisions Medvedev resigning after a "decent interval," necessitating a new presidential election in which Putin would be eligible to run, since he would not have served more than two consecutive terms. Possible Implications for U.S. : Putinism will prevail with or without Putin. Others argue that Russia's post-Soviet political evolution is still a work in progress, that the policies and preferences of Russia's paramount leader can be decisive in setting the nations' course – and its relations with the United States – as was the case when Mikhail Gorbachev ascended to the Kremlin and adopted policies that wrought profound, albeit sometimes unintended, consequences. Nor has Medvedev been in the chorus of top Russian officials sharply and ostentatiously criticizing the Bush Administration, U.S. policies, NATO, and the West. The answer to this question has potentially far-reaching implications for the United States.
First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, President Putin's chosen successor and long-time protege, was elected President on March 2, 2008, as expected, with about 70% of the vote. There was little real opposition. Medvedev had previously announced that if elected, he would propose Putin as Prime Minister and Putin has said that he will accept this post. The Putin regime has brought TV and radio under tight state control and virtually eliminated effective political opposition, assuring this "transition." The Kremlin's Unified Russia party had previously swept the parliamentary election (December 2, 2007), winning more than two-thirds of the seats in the Duma.
The Russian Constitution limits the president to no more than two consecutive four-year terms. President Putin's second term ends in May 2008. Uncertainty about the post-Putin succession had dominated and roiled Russian politics for most of 2007, until late in the year, when Putin made clear that he would relinquish the presidency and take the position of prime minister after Medvedev was elected president.
Putin's genuine popularity at home, combined with the near-total control that he and his regime exercise over nearly every aspect of the political scene, guaranteed the electoral outcomes sought by the Kremlin. Major questions remain, however, about the configuration of political power after Medvedev succeeds Putin as president. What will be the balance of power between the President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin? Will a diarchy of power be stable? Will Putin seek to regain the presidency after a Medvedev interregnum which would legalize a third (and fourth) non-consecutive term for Putin? The answers to these questions will help determine the course of Russia's political evolution – continuing and consolidating the authoritarianism that Putin has fostered, or moderating that trend. At the same time, Russia's domestic political evolution will likely have a strong influence on its relations with its neighbors, with the EU and NATO, and with the United States. Related CRS reports include CRS Report RL33407, Russian Political, Economic, and Security Issues and U.S. Interests, by [author name scrubbed]; CRS Report RS22770, Russia's December 2007 Legislative Election: Outcome and Implications, by [author name scrubbed]; and CRS Report RL32662, Democracy in Russia: Trends and Implications for U.S. Interests, by [author name scrubbed]. This report will be updated as needed.