Roh campaigned on a platform of reform -- reform of Korean politics, economic policymaking, andU.S.-ROK relations -- to narrowly defeat conservative candidate Lee Hoi Chang in the generalelection. The 2002 election was notable for several inter-related reasons. First, itexposed the deep generational divide among South Koreans. Second, Roh's victory was due in part to his call for South Korea to become a more "equal" partner in the U.S.-ROK alliance and to his criticism of U.S. policies on the Korean peninsula. Rohpledged to largely continue Kim Dae Jung's "sunshine policy" of engaging North Korea. Althoughthese views resonated most strongly among younger generations of South Koreans, they have enteredthe mainstream of Korean society, as shown by the massive demonstrations in late 2002 protestingthe acquittal of two U.S. servicemen who were operating a military vehicle when it killed twoKorean schoolgirls. Third, the election and the anti-American demonstrations highlighted the growing influence and sophistication of Korean civil society groups, which now have a significant voice in determiningpolicy outcomes in Seoul. Furthermore, both the ruling MDP and oppositionGNP are under significant internal stress, and there is speculation that there will be a major politicalrealignment before the next legislative election. As mentioned above, the next legislative elections willbe held in April 2004. In reality, however, the President continues to be the dominant force in South Korean policymaking, as formal and informal limitations prevent the National Assembly from initiatingmajor pieces of legislation. Presently, there are three major political parties in South Korea: President Roh Moo-hyun's center-left ruling Millennium Democratic Party ( MDP , formerly the National Congress for NewPolitics), which has 101 seats in the National Assembly (137 seats constitutes a parliamentarymajority); the generally conservative opposition Grand National Party ( GNP ), which at 153 seatshasa majority in the Assembly; and the smaller (14 seats) conservative United Liberal Democrats(ULD), which is led by the veteran politician Kim Jong-pil and has declined dramatically in size andinfluence in recent years. "Anti-Americanism". And,Roh bucked South Korean tradition by not traveling to the United States during the campaign. Yet suspicions of the Bush Administration's policy toward North Korea among manySouth Koreans arguably will make it politically costly for President Roh to support a moreconfrontational approach if the United States decides to pursue this course, particularly during a yearwhen Roh's party is trying to capture the National Assembly.
In December 2002, South Koreans elected Roh Moo-hyun, a little-known, self-educated lawyer, as their president. The left-of-center Roh narrowly defeated the conservative candidate, Lee HoiChang. Roh ran on a platform of reform, pledging to make South Korean politics more transparentand accountable, to make the economy more equitable, and to make South Korea a more equalpartner in its alliance with the United States. During the campaign, Roh pledged to continue hispredecessor, Kim Dae Jung's, "sunshine policy" of engaging North Korea, and harshly criticized theBush Administration's approach to Pyongyang.
The 2002 election was notable for several inter-related reasons. First, it exposed the deep generational divide among South Koreans. Roh was favored by voters under the age of 45, whoemerged during the election as an anti-status quo force. In contrast, Lee easily won the votes ofthose over 45. Second, Roh's victory was due in part to his criticisms of the United States, and hebenefitted from the massive demonstrations in late 2002 protesting the acquittal of two U.S.servicemen who were operating a military vehicle when it killed two Korean schoolgirls. Third, theelection and the anti-American demonstrations highlighted the growing influence and sophisticationof Korean civil society groups, which now have a significant voice in determining policy outcomesin Seoul.
These shifts in the South Korean polity, particularly the rise in anti-Americanism, confront the Bush Administration with a policy dilemma: how to manage the U.S.-ROK alliance while pursuinga more confrontational approach toward North Korea than that favored by many, if not most, SouthKoreans.
Institutionally, the South Korean presidency has few checks on its power. While the unicameral National Assembly's influence has been slowly rising since South Korea became a democracy in1987, it is hampered by formal and informal limitations on its power. The National Assembly iscontrolled by the opposition, right-of-center Grand National Party (GNP). The second-largestgrouping is President Roh's party, the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP). Both major parties areunder significant internal stress, and there is speculation that they will split and be reconstitutedbefore the next quadrennial legislative election, to be held in April 2004.
This report will be updated periodically.