1). In addition, the agency recently decided to separate the  space and ground elements of the program into two separate contracts to  be managed by NASA and NOAA, respectively. However, this change has  delayed a key decision to proceed with the acquisition, which was planned  for September 2007. Further, independent estimates are higher than the  program’s current $7 billion cost estimate and convey a low level of  confidence in the program’s schedule for launching the first satellite by  2014. As NOAA works to reconcile the independent estimate with its own  program office estimate, costs are likely to grow and schedules are likely  to be delayed. GOES-R Cost Estimates Are Likely to Grow and Schedule Estimates Are Likely to Slip

NOAA’s current estimate that the life cycle cost of the GOES-R program  would be $7 billion is likely to grow, and its estimate that the first satellite  would be launched in December 2014 is likely to slip. NOAA is Taking Steps to Address Key Risks, but More Remains to Be Done

To address cost, schedule, and technical risks, the GOES-R program  established a risk management program and has taken steps to identify  and mitigate selected risks. Specifically, the program has  multiple risk watchlists and they are not always consistent. Further, key  risks are missing from the risk lists, including risks associated with  unfilled executive positions, limitations in NOAA’s insight into NASA’s  deliverables, and insufficient funding for unexpected costs (called  management reserve) on a critical sensor. As a result, the GOES-R  program is at increased risk that problems will not be identified or  mitigated in a timely manner and that they could lead to program cost  overruns and schedule delays. As another example, the program office  considers the lack of an integrated master schedule to be its highest  priority risk. Conclusions

Over the last year, NOAA has completed preliminary design studies of its  GOES-R system and has made a number of key changes to the program. However, independent studies show that the program’s cost could  increase by about $2 billion more and the first launch could be delayed by  at least 2 years. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to assess the status and revised plans for the  Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R series (GOES-R)  procurement and to evaluate whether the National Oceanic and  Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is adequately mitigating key  technical and programmatic risks facing the GOES-R program. Furthermore, we  interviewed agency officials from NOAA, the National Aeronautics and  Space Administration (NASA), and ITT Corporation to determine key  dates for future GOES-R acquisition efforts and milestones and progress  made on current instrument development efforts.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R series (GOES-R). This series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to (1) assess the status and plans for GOES-R, and (2) evaluate whether NOAA is adequately mitigating key technical and programmatic risks. To do so, GAO analyzed contractor and program data and interviewed officials from NOAA and NASA.

What GAO Found

NOAA has made progress in planning its GOES-R procurement--which is estimated to cost $7 billion and scheduled to have the first satellite ready for launch in 2014--but cost and schedules are likely to grow. Specifically, the agency completed preliminary design studies of GOES-R and recently decided to separate the space and ground elements of the program into two separate development contracts. However, this change in the GOES-R acquisition strategy has delayed a decision to proceed with the acquisition. Further, independent estimates are higher than the program's current cost estimate and convey a low level of confidence in the program's schedule. Independent studies show that the estimated program could cost about $2 billion more, and the first satellite launch could be delayed by 2 years. As NOAA works to reconcile the independent estimate with its own program office estimate, costs are likely to grow and schedules are likely to be delayed. To address cost, schedule, and technical risks, the GOES-R program has established a risk management program and has taken steps to mitigate selected risks. For example, as of July 2007, the program office identified the lack of an integrated master schedule to be its highest priority risk and established plans to bring this risk to closure. However, more remains to be done to fully address GOES-R risks. Specifically, the program has multiple risk watchlists that are not always consistent and key risks are missing from the watchlists, including risks associated with unfilled executive positions, limitations in NOAA's insight into NASA's deliverables, and insufficient funds for unexpected costs--called management reserves. As a result, the GOES-R program is at risk that problems will not be identified or mitigated in a timely manner and could lead to program cost overruns and schedule delays.