To assess the Bureau of the Census’ progress in minimizing risks, we reviewed the status of key activities that the Bureau plans to test as part of its dress rehearsal for the next decennial census: address list development, local outreach and promotion, staffing, and statistical sampling. Accurate addresses are essential for delivering questionnaires, avoiding unnecessary and expensive follow-up efforts at vacant or nonexistent residences, and establishing a universe of households for sampling and statistical estimation. Accurate maps are critical for counting the correct portions of the population in their correct locations—the cornerstone of congressional reapportionment and redistricting. Because of these procedural weaknesses, the Bureau is “reengineering” how it builds the MAF by physically verifying all addresses and by encouraging earlier local government reviews of address lists and maps created from the Postal Service and the Bureau’s 1990 address file. Although this reengineered approach may address several problems, the Bureau will not be testing this new approach before the 2000 Census. The Postal Service’s Address File May Not Be Sufficiently Accurate or Complete to Meet the Bureau’s Needs

To reduce cost and improve the accuracy of the 2000 Census, the Bureau, in developing the MAF for city-style addresses for the census, originally planned to combine the Postal Service’s Delivery Sequence File (DSF), which includes all mail delivery points recognized by the Postal Service, with the address file created during the 1990 Census. Although Bureau canvassing could improve the quality of the address lists and maps to a certain extent, because the Bureau’s reengineered approach provides for an earlier LUCA, canvassing will not occur in areas having city-style addresses until after local governments have completed their review of addresses and maps. Of that amount, about $100 million is for the Y&R paid-advertising campaign. As a result, the Bureau may have difficulty achieving its goal of a 66.9 percent mail response rate in 2000. The Bureau Has Developed Several Initiatives to Address Potential Staffing Difficulties but Could Still Encounter Problems in 2000

The Bureau estimates that, under its current design, it will need to fill about 295,000 office and field positions to carry out various activities for the 2000 Census. Nevertheless, the demand for temporary census workers thus far has been small, and more generally, the Bureau’s experience gained during the dress rehearsal does not and cannot provide an adequate test of the effectiveness of the Bureau’s staffing strategy for the 2000 Census. The Bureau Plans to Use Statistical Methods to Reduce Its Nonresponse Follow-Up Workload

In 1990, the Bureau sent Census questionnaires to most households in the United States, asking that household members complete the questionnaire and mail it back to the Census Bureau. It noted that the methodology is proven and has been used in previous censuses and tests.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the status of key activities that the Bureau of the Census plans to test as part of its dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) address list development, local outreach and promotion, staffing, and statistical sampling are all still facing the developmental and implementation changes that led GAO in 1997 to raise concerns about the high risk of a failed census in 2000; (2) this situation has arisen in part because Congress and the administration have yet to reach agreement on key aspects of the census design; (3) an accurate address list and associated maps are essential for ensuring that households receive census questionnaires and for establishing the universe of housing units for sampling and statistical estimation procedures; (4) accurate maps are critical for locating households for congressional reapportionment and redistricting; (5) the Bureau's initial plan for creating the address list and maps for the 2000 Census called for: (a) combining addresses provided by the Postal Service with the Bureau's 1990 Census address file and mapping database; and (b) submitting these addresses and maps to local governments for their review; (6) the Bureau has since concluded that the resulting address file might not meet its goal of being 99 percent complete; (7) in September 1997, the Bureau announced plans to reengineer its process for creating the address file for the 2000 census, in part by hiring temporary staff to physically verify the accuracy of all addresses by canvassing streets; (8) this reengineered approach has not been tested because of a lack of resources, and will not be tested because the Bureau does not have sufficient time to do so; (9) as part of its reengineering effort, the Bureau plans to seek earlier local government review of addresses from the Postal Service and the Bureau's 1990 Census file; (10) the Bureau's approach still will not address some of the problems encountered by local officials in their reviews; (11) to boost the questionnaire mail response rate and thus reduce its costly nonresponse follow-up workload, the Bureau plans to partner with local governments, schools and other community organizations to promote the census and has initiated a paid advertising campaign that is being developed by a private contractor; (12) the Bureau estimates that it will need to recruit over 2.6 million applicants to fill about 295,000 office and field positions; (13) the dress rehearsal does not and cannot provide an adequate test of the effectiveness of the Bureau's staffing strategy for the 2000 Census; and (14) several missteps by the Bureau in drawing a sample for the Integrated Coverage Measurement have raised GAO's concerns about the Bureau's quality control procedures.