U.S. citizens only? To apportion Congress? Scope and Methodology

As agreed with your offices, our objectives for this report were to   (1) assess the soundness of the Bureau’s test design and its suitability for  addressing the Bureau’s specific research questions, and (2) examine what  past court decisions have held about Americans’ rights and obligations  abroad that could help inform whether and how they should be included in  the census. The test objectives and related research questions are appropriate as  written, but, as shown in table 2, because of various methodological  limitations, the data that will result from the test will not fully answer key  questions concerning feasibility, data quality, and cost. Research Question #2: Information on Data Quality Will be Limited

The Bureau plans on measuring the quality of the data collected in the  overseas test by tabulating item nonresponse, which refers to whether a  respondent completed a particular question. Cost Data Will Not Identify the Cost of Conducting Future Tests or an Overseas Enumeration in 2010

Although one of the Bureau’s objectives for the overseas enumeration test  is to determine the cost of collecting data from overseas citizens, the  Bureau’s test design lacked a specific research question aimed at obtaining  this information. The Rights and Obligations of Americans Overseas Vary

Americans residing abroad do not have the same rights and obligations  under federal programs and activities as Americans living in the United  States. For this study, we examined whether overseas Americans can  vote in federal elections; are subject to federal income tax; and can receive  Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, and Medicare benefits (see  table 3). Legislation Would be Needed To Require the Census Bureau to Enumerate Americans Abroad

The Bureau has the discretion to decide whether to count American  citizens abroad. Indeed, there is nothing in the Constitution, the Census  Act, or court decisions that would require the Bureau to count Americans  living overseas, or to not count such individuals. The Bureau overstated the test’s ability to answer its  key research objectives and, as a result, congressional decision making on  this issue will be that much more difficult. Therefore, to give the Bureau  as much planning time as possible, it will be important for Congress to  soon decide whether the Bureau should be required to count this  population group as part of the 2010 Census or as part of a separate data  collection effort or whether there are so many obstacles to a successful  overseas count regardless of the approach that the Bureau should shelve  any plans for further research and testing. a. a. a. a.
Why GAO Did This Study

In the 1990 and 2000 Censuses, U.S. military and federal civilian employees overseas were included in the numbers used for apportioning Congress. Currently, the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) is assessing the practicality of counting all Americans abroad by holding a test census in France, Kuwait, and Mexico. GAO was asked to (1) assess the soundness of the test design, and (2) examine what past court decisions have held about Americans' rights and obligations abroad.

What GAO Found

Although the overseas enumeration test was designed to help determine the practicality of counting all Americans abroad, because of various methodological limitations, the test results will only partially answer the Bureau's key questions concerning feasibility, data quality, and cost. For example, one research questions asks, "How good is the quality of the data?" However, the Bureau will only measure item nonresponse, which indicates whether a person completed a particular question. As a measure of quality, it is far from complete. Similarly, although a key research objective was to determine the cost of counting Americans overseas, the Bureau's data will not inform the cost of conducting future tests or an overseas enumeration in 2010. Overall, the Bureau overstated the test's ability to answer its key research objectives. Overseas Americans have various rights and obligations to federal programs and activities. For example, Americans abroad are generally taxed on their worldwide income and can vote in federal elections, but are generally not entitled to Medicare benefits. There is nothing in the Constitution, federal law, or court decisions that would either require the Bureau to count overseas Americans, or not count this population group. As a result, Congress would need to enact legislation if it wanted to require the Bureau to include overseas Americans in the 2010 Census. Counting Americans abroad as part of the census would add new risks to an enterprise that already faces an array of challenges. Therefore, it will be important for Congress to decide whether overseas Americans should be counted as part of the census or counted as part of a separate survey or whether there are so many obstacles to a successful count regardless of the approach that the Bureau should shelve any plans for further research and testing. To the extent a second test is required, the Bureau will need to take steps to develop a more rigorous design.