Satellite-provided Environmental Data for Climate and Space Weather

One key subset of satellite-provided data is climate data. USGEO and  USGCRP report to the Executive Office of the President through the  National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment  and Natural Resources, while the National Space Weather Program  coordinates its activities through NOAA’s Office of the Federal  Coordinator for Meteorology. Agencies Have Started Planning Separate Acquisitions, but the Impact of This Approach Is Not Known and Key Risks and Challenges Remain

NOAA has developed preliminary plans for its new satellite acquisition  program—called the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS)—to meet the  requirements of the afternoon NPOESS orbit. DOD expects to make final decisions on the spacecraft, sensors,  procurement strategy, and staffing in August 2010, and begin the program  immediately. Because neither agency has finalized plans for its acquisition, the full  impact of OSTP’s decision on the expected cost, schedule, and capabilities  is unknown. Key Transition Risks and Continuing Development Challenges Threaten Satellite Data Continuity

Moving forward, the agencies face key risks in transitioning from NPOESS  to their new programs, including loss of key staff and capabilities, delays  in negotiating contract changes and establishing new program offices,  failure to support the other agency’s requirements, insufficient oversight of  new program management, and potential cost growth from contract  terminations and other program changes. While NOAA and DOD are developing plans for their new programs, the  development of key NPOESS components is continuing. However, the expected launch date of  the NPP satellite has been delayed by 9 months (moving the launch date to  September 2011 or later), due to technical issues in the development of the  NPP sensor that has not yet been integrated. Until the transition risks are effectively mitigated, and unless selected  components are able to continue scheduled development, the launches of  NPP and the first NOAA and DOD satellites could be further delayed. Further launch delays are likely to jeopardize the availability and  continuity of weather and climate data. Federal Efforts to Ensure the Long-term Provision of Environmental Data from Satellites Are Lacking

For over a decade, the climate community has clamored for an interagency  strategy to coordinate agency priorities, budgets, and schedules for  environmental satellites over the long term—and the governance structure  to implement that strategy. Until an interagency strategy for earth observation is established, and a  clear process for implementing it is in place, federal agencies will continue  to procure their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic  benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation  may be lost, and the continuity of key measurements may be jeopardized. This will hinder our nation’s ability to understand long-term climate  changes. Federal Agencies Lack a Strategy for the Long-term Provision of Space Weather Data

While key federal agencies have taken steps to plan for continued space  weather observations in the near term, they lack a strategy for the long- term provision of space weather data. Specifically, NOAA and DOD are seeking to replace key  experimental space-observing satellites. However, OSTP officials do not have a schedule for  approving or releasing the reports. Among other things, we are  recommending that the Secretaries of Defense and Commerce direct their  respective NPOESS follow-on programs to expedite decisions on the  expected cost, schedule, and capabilities of their planned programs; direct  their respective NPOESS follow-on programs to develop plans to address  key transition risks, including the loss of skilled staff, delays in contract  negotiations and setting up new program offices, loss of support for the  other agency’s requirements, and oversight of new program management;  and direct the NPOESS program office to develop priorities for work  slowdown and stoppage to allow the activities that are most important to  maintaining launch schedules to continue. In written comments on the NPOESS report, both NOAA and DOD agreed  with our recommendations and identified plans to implement them. Faced with  expected cost growth exceeding $8 billion, schedule delays of over 5  years, and continuing tri-agency management challenges, a task force led  by the President’s Office of Science and Technology Policy decided to  disband NPOESS so that NOAA and DOD could pursue separate satellite  acquisitions. Although initial steps have been taken to ensure the short-term continuity  of key climate and space weather measurements from satellites, the  federal government has not taken the necessary steps to ensure the long- term sustainment of these critical measurements.
Why GAO Did This Study

Environmental satellites provide data used for weather forecasting, measuring variations in climate over time, and predicting space weather. Due to the continuing cost, schedule, and tri-agency management challenges of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)--a key satellite acquisition managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) decided in February 2010 to disband NPOESS and, instead, to have NOAA and DOD undertake separate acquisitions. GAO was asked to summarize its report being released today on plans for NOAA's and DOD's separate acquisitions and the key risks of the transition, as well as its recent work on federal efforts to establish long-term strategies for satellite-provided climate and space weather data.

What GAO Found

OSTP's decision to disband NPOESS came at a time when the program's cost estimate had more than doubled--to over $15 billion, the launch date for a demonstration satellite had been delayed by over 5 years, and the tri-agency management structure had repeatedly proven to be ineffective. To implement the decision, NOAA and DOD have begun planning for separate acquisitions to replace NPOESS. NOAA has developed preliminary plans for its new program--called the Joint Polar Satellite System--to meet the requirements of the afternoon NPOESS orbit. DOD expects to make final decisions on the spacecraft and sensors in August 2010. However, because neither agency has completed its plans, the impact of the decision to disband the program on the expected costs, schedules, and capabilities has not yet been determined. Moving forward, the agencies face key risks in transitioning from NPOESS to their separate programs, including the loss of key staff and capabilities, delays in negotiating contract changes and establishing new program offices, the loss of support for the other agency's requirements, insufficient oversight of new program management, and cost growth resulting from contract and program changes. While NOAA and DOD are establishing plans for their new programs, the development of key NPOESS components is continuing. However, the launch date of the demonstration satellite--to be used operationally to ensure climate and weather data continuity--has been delayed by 9 months, and the program has slowed down work on all development activities. Until the transition risks are effectively mitigated, and unless components are able to continue scheduled development, it is likely that launch dates will continue to be delayed. Further delays are likely to jeopardize the availability and continuity of critical weather and climate data. For over a decade, the climate community has clamored for a national interagency strategy that coordinates agency priorities, budgets, and schedules for environmental satellites over the long-term--and the governance structure to implement that strategy. While the federal government has taken several steps to ensure the provision of environmental data from satellites for both climate and space weather in the short term, federal efforts to ensure the long-term provision of these environmental measurements are still lacking. Specifically, although both the climate and space weather communities have recently drafted reports for OSTP containing recommendations for climate and space weather satellites, respectively, the climate report focuses only on short-term needs and does not include longer term priorities, nor does it include budgets or schedules. Further, OSTP does not have plans for finalizing or releasing either the climate or space weather reports. Until an interagency strategy for environmental observation is established, and a clear process for implementing it is in place, federal agencies will continue to procure their immediate priorities on an ad hoc basis, the economic benefits of a coordinated approach to investments in earth observation may be lost, and our nation's ability to understand long-term climate changes may be limited. In its reports, GAO recommended that NOAA and DOD address key transition risks, and that the President's Assistant for Science and Technology implement interagency strategies for the long-term provision of environmental observations. NOAA and DOD agreed, while the Assistant's office neither agreed nor disagreed, but noted its plan to develop a strategy for earth observations.