Additionally, in January 2013, the Bureau implemented an Internet  response option for its American Community Survey (ACS), which is  another household survey conducted by the 2020 Census Directorate on  a smaller scale than the decennial census. The  Bureau has stated that it plans to use cloud computing solutions,  which is a means for establishing on-demand access to shared and  scalable pools of computing resources, to help support the large  volume of data processing, storage, and transactions needed for  Internet responses. The Bureau has identified segments of the population that are  more difficult to enumerate based on prior censuses, such as minorities,  renters, children, low-income households, and low-education households. Census Bureau Has Taken Preliminary Steps to Examine the Impact of the Internet Option on Hard-to- Count Populations and Has Further Evaluation Plans

The Bureau has taken preliminary steps to identify demographic groups  likely to use the Internet response option in the 2020 census and how  they compare to historically hard-to-count populations by examining  existing ACS studies in this area and applying the lessons learned to the  decennial census. For example, the  Bureau is planning two tests in 2015 that are expected to provide data on  Internet response rates among different demographic groups, including  historically hard-to-count populations. Specifically:
The Internet response option cost estimate was not comprehensive. They stated  that the estimate will be updated to reflect the program’s work  breakdown structure once the preliminary design decision is made in  September 2015. According to  Bureau officials, they are in the process of developing estimated costs  for relevant CEDCAP projects, and these will be incorporated into the  Internet response option cost estimate. We identified four major  challenges the Bureau faces in implementing an Internet response option  for the 2020 census: project schedules associated with the Internet  response option are not fully integrated; key questions may not be  answered in time for the preliminary design decision; high-level time  frames for cloud computing decisions and implementation for the 2020  census have not been determined; and gaps in IT skill sets continue to  exist. Without established high- level time frames, Bureau officials will not know whether there is enough  time to effectively implement a cloud environment. While the Bureau’s initial estimate of approximately $73 million for the  Internet response option was included in the fiscal year 2015 budget  request, this estimate lacks reliability, which in turn, calls into question the  reliability of the potential cost savings estimate of about $550 million to $1  billion for the optimizing self-response design category (which includes  the Internet response option). Additionally, the Bureau’s ability to effectively manage the scheduling,  task, and capability challenges it faces in planning for an Internet  response option will be critical to the success of the 2020 census. Accordingly, until clear plans for  answering these questions are established and implemented, the Bureau  will have limited information for beginning its development and  implementation of systems and infrastructure. Recommendations for Executive Action

To ensure that the Bureau is better positioned to deliver an Internet  response option for the 2020 Decennial Census, we are recommending  that the Secretary of Commerce direct the Under Secretary for Economic  Affairs to direct the Director of the Census Bureau to take the following  three actions: ensure that the estimated costs associated with the Internet response  option are updated to reflect significant changes in the program and to  fully meet the characteristics of a reliable cost estimate; ensure that the methodologies for answering the Internet response  rate and IT infrastructure research questions are determined and  documented in existing or future project plans in time to inform key  design decisions; and develop high-level time frames for selecting, testing, and deploying a  cloud environment to guide the Bureau’s approach to enabling  scalability for the 2020 census. The  department neither agreed nor disagreed with our recommendations, but  provided comments that are discussed in detail below. Regarding our conclusions on key challenges associated with delivering  an Internet response option, the department stated that it believed it had  developed project plans, methodologies, and time frames for making  decisions related to IT infrastructure needs, including the use of cloud  computing to support 2020 census requirements. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) describe the Census Bureau’s (Bureau) efforts  to identify demographic groups likely to use Internet response and how  they compare to historically hard-to-count populations, (2) assess the  reliability of estimated costs and savings for the Internet response option,  and (3) determine key challenges associated with delivering an Internet  response option for the 2020 census.
Why GAO Did This Study

The U.S. Census Bureau plans to significantly change the methods and technology it uses to count the population with the 2020 Decennial Census, such as offering an option for households to respond to the survey via the Internet. This involves developing and acquiring IT systems and infrastructure to support the collection and processing of Internet response data.
GAO was asked to review the Bureau's efforts to deliver an Internet response option for the 2020 census. GAO's objectives were to (1) describe the Bureau's efforts to identify demographic groups likely to use Internet response and how they compare to historically hard-to-count populations, (2) assess the reliability of estimated costs and savings for Internet response, and (3) determine key challenges associated with delivering an Internet response option. To do this, GAO reviewed Bureau studies, cost estimates, project plans, schedules, and other documentation and compared them against relevant guidance. GAO also interviewed Bureau officials and experts.

What GAO Found

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) has taken preliminary steps and plans to further examine the impact of introducing an Internet response option on historically hard-to-count segments of the population (these include, but are not limited to, minorities, renters, children, low-income households, and low-education households). For example, the Bureau is applying lessons learned from its implementation of an Internet response option for another household survey, called the American Community Survey, which is conducted on a smaller scale than the decennial census. Additionally, the Bureau is planning two 2020 census field tests in 2015 that are expected to provide data on Internet response rates among different demographic groups, including the historically hard-to-count populations.
The Bureau's preliminary estimated costs of about $73 million for the Internet response option are not reliable because its estimate did not conform to best practices. For example, the estimate has not been updated to reflect significant changes related to the Internet response option that have occurred since it was developed in 2011. Additionally, the unreliability of the Bureau's cost estimate for the Internet response option cast doubt on the reliability of associated potential cost savings estimates. Officials have recognized weaknesses in the Bureau's cost estimate and stated that they plan to update it based on a preliminary decision for the overall design of the 2020 census.
While efforts to deliver an Internet response option are under way, the Bureau faces several scheduling, task, and capability challenges in developing such an option for the 2020 census, including:
Key questions related to estimating the Internet self-response rate and determining the information technology (IT) infrastructure needed to support it may not be answered in time for the preliminary design decision, scheduled for September 2015. Specifically, the Bureau has not developed project plans and research methodologies for answering these questions. In November 2014, officials stated that they had recently begun working on establishing methodologies for answering these questions. However, Bureau officials do not know when the methodologies will be established or when project plans will be updated or created to reflect this new work. Until such plans and methodologies are established, concerns will persist as to whether these two critical questions will be answered in time to inform the design decision in September 2015.
High-level time frames for making decisions related to implementing cloud computing (i.e., a means for enabling on-demand access to shared and scalable pools of computing resources), such as selecting, testing, and implementing a cloud environment that meets the Bureau's scalability, budget, security, and privacy needs, have not been established. While Bureau officials estimated that such time frames will be established around June 2015, until they are established the Bureau will lack assurance that it has enough time to successfully implement a cloud environment prior to system testing, which is to begin in 2018.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Department of Commerce's Census Bureau update estimated costs for the Internet response option and ensure they are reliable, develop methodologies for answering key research questions, and establish high-level time frames for cloud computing decisions. The department neither agreed nor disagreed with the recommendations.