Bureau Has Taken Important Steps in Planning for a Paper- based Nonresponse Follow-up Operation, But Much Remains Uncertain

On May 8, 2008 the Bureau issued its plans for conducting the 2010 Census  paper-based nonresponse follow-up operation outlining key operational  decisions. Among these is the need to develop an information system to  manage the workload for a paper-based nonresponse follow-up operation  and for additional field infrastructure, such as more telephones and  computers to support this operation, to restructure the replacement  mailing and the removal of late mail returns from the nonresponse follow- up workload, as well as the need for cognitive testing of the enumerator  questionnaire used to collect data from nonrespondents. Officials said that they expect to review computer screen shots of the  operations control system reports it will use to manage the nonresponse  follow-up operation in January 2009; however, the Bureau has not yet  determined when and how testing of the operations control system before  nonresponse follow-up, which begins in April 2010, will occur. Consequently, depending on time and cost considerations,  Bureau officials believe that the Bureau must conduct, at a minimum, a  small scale simulation of the integration and communication between the  Decennial Response Integration System and FDCA for such aspects as  load testing for a paper-based operation, and interfaces such as when the  paper is processed by the Decennial Response Integration System and  when the check-in status is transmitted to individual local census offices  through management reports processed by the FDCA program. The Bureau’s plans for nonresponse follow-up will also require changes in  local census office infrastructure. The Bureau’s redesign has also changed the replacement mailing strategy  which will be used in 2010. Prior to the  redesign, the Bureau planned to send second mailings to all  nonresponding households that initially received the census form in the  mail. Not being able to test the paper-based nonresponse follow-up in the 2008  Dress Rehearsal introduces risk because the dress rehearsal will no longer  be a dry-run of the decennial census. While the Bureau has carried out a  paper-based follow-up operation in the past, there are now new  procedures and system interfaces that, as a result of its exclusion from the  dress rehearsal, will not be tested under census-like conditions. Bureau Has Improved Program Management and Oversight, but Cost Estimates Need Timely Reconciling

The Bureau has taken steps to strengthen the FDCA program office  leadership and expertise. The Bureau has also hired an outside IT  expert, to provide advice and guidance to the FDCA program office. The  Bureau has also implemented key activities to help improve management  and transparency of contractor activities. The Bureau has obtained cost estimates for FDCA from both Harris and  MITRE, based on the recent changes to the scope of the program. MITRE’s estimate is about $726  million, which is nearly $600 million less than the contractor’s rough order  of magnitude estimate. The Bureau needs to act swiftly to finalize the FDCA program’s cost  estimate and renegotiate the contract. In moving forward, it is  important that the Bureau exercise diligence in finalizing the contract  terms to ensure that the FDCA program is conducted in a timely and  efficient manner for the 2010 decennial. Bureau’s Integrated Schedule Identified Activities and Associated Milestones but Did Not Address Risks and Costs

The Bureau designed its 2010 Census Integrated Schedule, dated May 22,  2008, to provide information on its schedule framework and activity-level  design as well as to describe the program complexity and methods that the  Bureau will use to manage the 44 interdependent operations,  incorporating over 11,000 unique activities, to conduct the 2010 Census. Nor does the  schedule include a milestone for when testing of key activities related to  nonresponse follow-up will take place. This is despite the fact that this  represents the single largest field operation and will not be part of a dress  rehearsal. The Bureau does recognize that it could include in its high-level  summary schedule a key milestone for nonresponse follow-up testing  activities. We are currently  reviewing in greater detail the summary and integrated schedule of  milestones and the recently revised program-level risk document provided  on June 4, 2008.
Why GAO Did This Study

On April 3, 2008, the Secretary of Commerce announced significant changes to how the Census Bureau (Bureau) would conduct nonresponse follow-up, its largest field operation, in which census workers interview households that do not return initial census forms for the 2010 decennial census, and to its Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA) contract. The Bureau has since issued a redesigned plan to conduct a paper-based follow-up operation, an integrated 2010 Census project schedule, and is working on revising the FDCA contract. These are major changes late in the decennial census cycle. This testimony discusses (1) the Bureau's plans for conducting a paper-based nonresponse follow-up operation, (2) management of the FDCA contract and its latest cost estimates, and (3) the status of the Bureau's integrated 2010 project schedule. This testimony is based on past work, recent interviews with Bureau officials, and a review of redesign documents.

What GAO Found

The Bureau has taken important steps to plan for a paper-based nonresponse follow-up operation, but several aspects remain uncertain. On May 8, 2008, the Bureau issued a paper-based nonresponse follow-up plan that details key components of the operation and describes processes for managing it and other operations. However, the plan envisions using an information system to manage the field operation workload, which experienced significant problems when tested earlier in the dress rehearsal. These problems make it more critical to test the system's capabilities for supporting the nonresponse follow-up operation. The Bureau will also institute new strategies--through second mailings and a new approach to remove late mail returns--but has only tested some aspects of these operations and will be unable to test them in a dress rehearsal, making it difficult to estimate their impact on operations in 2010. Ideally, the dress rehearsal should test almost all of the operations and procedures planned for the decennial under as close to census-like conditions as possible. Bureau officials expect that some small-scale testing will occur, particularly integration testing for its operations control system and cognitive testing of the forms used by enumerators for nonresponse follow-up, but what will be tested and when is not yet certain. The Bureau has taken several positive steps to address FDCA program management and oversight, but cost estimates need reconciling. The Bureau has taken actions to strengthen the FDCA program office leadership and expertise. To lead the program office, the Bureau has assigned an experienced Census program manager and hired an outside information technology expert to provide executive level guidance. The Bureau has also taken actions to improve communications and transparency of contractor activities. Further, the Bureau has obtained an independent government cost estimate based on the changes to the FDCA program's scope, which is nearly $600 million less than the contractor's rough order of magnitude estimate. After the contractor develops its detailed cost estimate, then the Bureau will need to reconcile the two cost estimates and renegotiate the contract. The Bureau will need to ensure that the final contract modifications and terms allow for FDCA program activities to be conducted in a timely and accurate manner for the 2010 decennial census. The Bureau's integrated schedule, dated May 22, 2008, identifies over 11,000 activities and milestones for the census. There is overlap in the testing and deployment schedule for the handheld device that will be used to collect address data in the field. Further, the Bureau's summary of key milestones does not include a milestone for when testing of key activities related to nonresponse follow-up will take place. Such milestones are important because nonresponse follow-up is the single largest field operation and will not be part of a dress rehearsal. The Bureau recognizes that it could include a key milestone for nonresponse follow-up testing activities. GAO is reviewing in greater detail the summary and integrated schedule of milestones and a summary of program risks provided on June 4th.