When the primary NPOESS contract was awarded in August 2002, the  program was estimated to cost about $7 billion through 2018. Overview of Initial NOAA and DOD Plans for Replacement Satellite Programs

After the decision was made to disband the NPOESS program in 2010,  NOAA and DOD began planning for their respective satellite programs. Both agencies made progress on these activities, but recent events have  resulted in major program changes. However, the agency now plans to remove key  requirements, including selected sensors and ground systems, to keep  the program within budget. DOD established its DWSS program office  and modified its contracts accordingly before deciding in early 2012 to  terminate the program and reassess its requirements (as directed by  Congress). NOAA Established the JPSS Program and Contracts for Most Components, but Plans to Modify Requirements to Limit Costs

After the February 2010 decision to disband NPOESS, NOAA transferred  management responsibilities to its new satellite program, defined its  requirements, and transferred contracts to the new program. While final decisions on what will be removed are  expected by the end of June 2012, NOAA may discontinue:  support for OMPS operations on JPSS-1; development of two of the three planned Total and Spectral Solar  Irradiance Sensors, the spacecraft for all three of these sensors, and  the launch vehicle for the three sensors; development of the OMPS and CERES sensors on JPSS-2; plans for a network of ground-based receptor stations; planned improvements in the time it takes to obtain satellite data from  JPSS-2 (the requirement was to provide data in 30 minutes; instead,  the requirement will remain at the JPSS-1 level of 80 minutes); plans to install an Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS) at two plans to support ground operations for DOD’s future polar satellite  program. NPP Is in Orbit; Sensor Data Are Being Calibrated for Use

NPP was successfully launched on October 28, 2011. Development of JPSS Is Under Way; Critical Decisions and Milestones Are Pending

The major components of the JPSS program are at different stages of  development, and important decisions and program milestones lie ahead. Within the flight project, development of the sensors for the first JPSS  satellite is well under way; however, selected sensors are experiencing  technical issues and the impact of these issues had not yet been  determined. The ground project is currently in operation supporting NPP,  and NOAA is planning to upgrade selected parts of the ground systems to  increase security and reliability. The free-flyer project is still in a planning  stage because NOAA has not yet decided which satellites will host the  instruments or when these satellites will launch. JPSS Risk Management Process in Place; Key Risks Remain

The JPSS program has a structured risk management process in place  and is working to mitigate key program risks; however, NOAA faces key  risks involving the potential for satellite gaps and does not yet have  mitigation plans. The JPSS program office has implemented elements of an  The JPSS program is working to mitigate the risks of a lack of a cost and  schedule baseline and program office staffing shortfalls, but NOAA has  not established mitigation plans to address the risk of a gap in the  afternoon orbit or potential satellite data gaps in the DOD and European  polar satellite programs, which provide supplementary information to  NOAA forecasts. Moreover, until NOAA establishes  mitigation plans for a satellite data gap, it runs the risk of not being able to  fulfill its mission of providing weather forecasts to protect lives, property,  and commerce. JPSS program officials are currently working  to calibrate NPP data so that they are useable by civilian and military  meteorologists and to manage the development of sensors for the first  JPSS satellite. In its  comments, NOAA agreed with the report’s recommendation and noted  that the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service— a NOAA component agency—has performed analyses on how to mitigate  potential gaps in satellite data, but has not yet compiled this information  into a report. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) evaluate efforts to transfer management and  contract responsibilities from the National Polar-orbiting Operational  Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program to the separate  satellite programs being established at the National Oceanic and  Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Department of Defense (DOD),  (2) assess NOAA’s progress in developing the NPOESS Preparatory  Project (NPP) satellite and the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS), and  (3) evaluate NOAA’s efforts to mitigate key project risks. We interviewed agency and contractor officials to  evaluate actions to address each transition risk. Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect  Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military Users.
Why GAO Did This Study

Environmental satellites provide critical data used in forecasting weather and measuring variations in climate over time. NPOESSa program managed by NOAA, DOD, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administrationwas planned to replace two existing polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. However, 8 years after a development contract for the NPOESS program was awarded in 2002, the cost estimate had more than doubledto about $15 billion, launch dates had been delayed by over 5 years, significant functionality had been removed from the program, and the programs tri-agency management structure had proven to be ineffective. In February 2010, a presidential task force decided to disband NPOESS and, instead, to have NOAA and DOD undertake separate acquisitions.
GAO was asked to evaluate (1) efforts to transfer responsibilities from the NPOESS program to the separate NOAA and DOD programs, (2) NOAAs progress in developing its satellite system, and (3) NOAAs efforts to mitigate key project risks. To do so, GAO analyzed program management, contract, cost, and risk data, attended executive program reviews, and interviewed agency and contractor officials.

What GAO Found

Following the decision to disband the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program in 2010, both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) made initial progress in transferring key management responsibilities to their separate program offices. Specifically, NOAA established a Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) program office, documented its requirements, and transferred existing contracts for earth-observing sensors to the new program. DOD established its Defense Weather Satellite System program office and modified contracts accordingly. However, recent events have resulted in major program changes at both agencies. NOAA plans to revise its program requirements to remove key elements, including sensors and ground-based data processing systems, to keep the program within budget. Further, in early 2012, DOD decided to terminate its program and reassess its requirements.
Over the past year, NOAA has made progress in developing its satellite system, but critical decisions and milestones lie ahead. In October 2011, the JPSS program office successfully launched a satellite originally called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). Data from the satellite are currently being calibrated and validated, and NOAA meteorologists started using selected satellite data products in their weather forecasts in May 2012. Further, the three major components of the JPSS program (the flight, ground, and free-flyer projects) are at different stages of development. Within the flight project, development of the sensors for the first JPSS satellite is well under way; however, selected sensors are experiencing technical issues. The ground project is currently in operation supporting NPP and NOAA is planning to upgrade parts of the ground system infrastructure to increase its security and reliability. The free-flyer project, intended to integrate and launch key instruments that could not be accommodated on the JPSS satellites, is still in a planning stage because NOAA has not yet decided which satellites will host the instruments or when these satellites will launch.
The JPSS program office has implemented elements of an effective risk management process; however, the program still faces significant risks. It does not yet have a cost and schedule baseline in place, the program office is not yet fully staffed, and there will likely be a gap in satellite data lasting 17 to 53 months from the time NPP is projected to cease operations and the first JPSS satellite begins to operate. There are also potential satellite data gaps in the DOD and European polar satellite programs, which provide supplementary information to NOAA forecasts. The JPSS program office is managing the first two risks, but NOAA has not established plans to mitigate potential satellite gaps. Until these risks are mitigated and resolved, civilian and military satellite data users may not have the information they need for timely weather forecasting, thereby risking lives, property, and commerce.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is making a recommendation to NOAA to establish mitigation plans to address the risk of satellite data gaps. NOAA agreed with GAOs recommendation and noted that the agency is developing a report to address the risk of data gaps.