This report describes changes in violent crime since 1960, with a focus on changes in the violent crime rates since 2014, especially in large cities. The analysis suggests three broad points: (1) after nearly two decades of decreasing crime rates, violent crime rates in the United States increased from 2014 to 2015, and again from 2015 to 2016, (2) violent crime rates, even after accounting for the recent increases, remain near historical lows, and (3) while there were increases in violent crime (particularly homicides) in some cities, these increases are not indicative of a sweeping national crime wave. National Trends in Violent Crime and Homicide

The most recent crime data published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) from its Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program indicate that after many years of nearly uninterrupted declines, the national rates for violent crime and homicide increased from 2014 to 2016. In contrast, the homicide rate increased 11% from 2014 to 2015 and 8% from 2015 to 2016. From 2014 to 2015, violent crime rates 
increased 4% in cities of 1 million or more people, which was similar to but slightly greater than the increase in the national violent crime rate (3%); decreased (-4% and -1%, respectively) in cities of 500,000-999,999 people and 250,000-499,999 people; increased in some smaller cities, but at a rate that was slightly less than the national rate (2% for cities of 100,000-249,999 people and 1% for cities of 50,000-99,999 people); and increased by 5% in cities of fewer than 50,000 people, which was greater than the increase in the national crime rate. In nearly half of the 48 largest cities in the United States for which violent crime and homicide data were available, violent crime rates increased from 2014 to 2015 or from 2015 to 2016 (see Figure 7 ). In summary, data on violent crime and homicide rates, with a focus on the 48 largest U.S. cities for which data were available, suggest that while recent increases in violent crime and homicide rates are cause for concern in many large cities, the country as a whole is not in the midst of a sweeping national violent crime wave. There were some cities that experienced increases in violent crime and homicide from 2014 to 2015 and again from 2015 to 2016, but in many other large cities, violent crime and/or homicide rates only increased in one of those years, or they decreased in both. The Ferguson effect is one of the more widely discussed and controversial explanations for the recent increases in violent crime in some cities. There is a small but growing body of research on whether the Ferguson effect has contributed to increasing violent crime rates. The Johns Hopkins study did find some evidence of a potential Ferguson effect in the arrest data. In addition, a post-Ferguson decrease in arrests might not be a detriment to Baltimore communities if the decrease did not result in an increase in crime and the reduction was in arrests that generate tensions between minority communities and the police. Along these lines, policymakers could consider providing more funding to the Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant (JAG) program. Policymakers could also consider providing additional funding to discretionary grant programs such as the Community Oriented Policing Services' (COPS) hiring program, the Byrne Criminal Justice Innovation program, or Project Safe Neighborhoods. In addition, Congress could consider authorizing and appropriating funding for a new grant program that supports investment in evidence-based policing strategies or crime prevention program, such as "hot-spots" policing." The National Public Safety Partnership

Congress might also consider providing resources to help DOJ expand the National Public Safety Partnership (PSP).
Media accounts of increasing violent crime rates, especially homicides, in some cities raise broad concerns about decreasing levels of public safety.
This report provides an analysis of changes in violent crime since 1960, with a focus on changes from 2014 to 2016 in violent crime and homicide rates in the 48 largest cities in the United States for which violent crime and homicide data were submitted to the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting Program. The results of the analysis suggest the following:
At the national level, violent crime and homicide rates increased from 2014 to 2015 and again from 2015 to 2016, but both rates remain near historical lows. Violent crime and homicide rates for the 48 largest cities in the United States with available data generally followed national-level trends, with some exceptions. For example, violent crime rates in cities of 500,000-999,999 people and 250,000-499,999 people decreased from 2014 to 2015, and the homicide rate in small cities of 50,000-99,999 people decreased from 2015 to 2016. Some of the largest cities in the United States saw increases in violent crime rates, homicide rates, or both from 2014 to 2015 and/or 2015 to 2016. For some of these cities, violent crime or homicide rates were the highest they have been in the past 20 years. Recent increases in violent crime and homicide in large cities have received a great deal of attention, but in smaller communities violent crime and homicide rates also increased from 2014 to 2015 and again from 2015 to 2016, although not as much as in the largest cities.
The "Ferguson effect" is one of the more widely discussed, and controversial, explanations for the recent increases in violent crime. It refers to the assertion that crime has increased recently because police are avoiding proactive policing tactics out of fear of repercussions for the use of aggressive tactics. There is a small but growing body of literature on the Ferguson effect, and the evidence is mixed. For example, recent research conducted by a Johns Hopkins University sociologist found some evidence of a post-Ferguson decrease in arrests and a post-Ferguson increase in crime in Baltimore. However, the research did not reveal a causal link between the decreasing arrests and increasing crime. Additionally, studies of the Ferguson effect have generally focused on a single state or specific cities, which make the results of these studies non-generalizable to other jurisdictions.
Policymakers might consider various options to assist cities that have seen an increase in violent crime and homicide rates. These include providing additional assistance to local governments through existing grant programs such as the Edward Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant, Byrne Criminal Justice Innovation, and Community Oriented Policing Services' hiring programs; authorizing and appropriating funding for a new grant program that would provide assistance to local governments to implement evidence-based violent crime prevention programs; or providing additional resources to allow the Department of Justice to expand its National Public Safety Partnership.