	Decennial Census: Preparations for Dress Rehearsal Underscore the Challenges for 2000

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: I am pleased to be here today to discuss the U.S. Census Bureau’s preparations and operational plans for its dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census, which is currently under way at three sites: Sacramento, CA; 11 counties in the Columbia, SC, area; and Menominee County in Wisconsin, including the Menominee American Indian Reservation. These unresolved issues led us in 1997 to raise concerns about the high risk of a failed census in 2000. At your request, my statement focuses on the progress, if any, that the Bureau has made since July 1997, when we reported that the risk of a failed census in 2000 had increased since we originally designated the 2000 Census as a high-risk area in February 1997. However, Congress has not endorsed the Bureau’s overall design because of its concerns over the validity, legality, and operational feasibility of the Bureau’s statistical sampling and estimation procedures. Thus, according to the Bureau, the dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census should test nearly all of the various operations, procedures, and questions that are planned for the decennial under as census-like conditions as feasible. The Accuracy of the Bureau’s Address Lists and Maps Is Uncertain, and Local Reviews May Be Too Sporadic to Greatly Improve Them

Complete and accurate address lists, along with precise maps, are the foundation of a successful census. Consequently, it will not be known until the 2000 Census whether the Bureau’s redesigned procedures will allow it to meet its goal. The Bureau’s Outreach and Promotion Efforts Face Obstacles That Could Impede Its Ability to Achieve Its Mail Response Rate Objective

To help increase the mail response rate and thus reduce its costly nonresponse follow-up workload, the Bureau plans to partner with local governments and other organizations to raise public awareness of the census. Nevertheless, the Bureau’s experience thus far during the dress rehearsal suggests that, in 2000, this goal might be difficult to achieve. The Bureau Could Encounter Difficulties Staffing the 2000 Census

For the 2000 Census, the Bureau estimates that it will need to recruit over 2.6 million applicants to fill about 295,000 positions. However, if current employment trends continue, the Bureau could find itself recruiting workers in a tighter labor market than prevailed in 1990. A Rigorous Dress Rehearsal Evaluation Program Is Critical to the Ultimate Success of the Census

A properly designed evaluation program that provides information on the cost, performance, required resources, timing of various census operations, and the quality and completeness of census data, is essential for the Bureau to assess the feasibility of its operational plans.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO discussed the Census Bureau's preparations and operational plans for its dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census, focusing on the progress that the Bureau has made since July 1997.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) the dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census is currently under way at three sites: (a) Sacramento, California; (b) 11 counties in the Columbia, South Carolina, area; and (c) Menominee County in Wisconsin, including the Menominee American Indian Reservation; (2) although it was originally intended to demonstrate the Census Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census, the dress rehearsal will instead leave a number of design and operational issues unresolved; (3) these unresolved issues led GAO in 1997 to raise concerns about the high risk of a failed census in 2000; (4) accurate address lists and associated maps are the building blocks for successful census; (5) however, the Bureau has concluded that its original procedures for building the 2000 Census address list might not meet its goals of being 99-percent complete; (6) although the Bureau has since revised its address list development procedures, they will not be tested during the dress rehearsal, thus it will not be known until the 2000 Census whether they will meet the Bureau's goal; (7) the Bureau's outreach and promotion initiatives are designed to boost mail response rates and thus avoid costly followups to nonresponding households; (8) while the Bureau is to rely on partnerships with the local governments and organizations to raise public awareness of the census, the level of participation in these efforts has been inconsistent during the dress rehearsal, suggesting their impact on response in 2000 may be limited; (9) uncertainties surround the Bureau's ability to staff the 295,000 mostly temporary office and field positions necessary to conduct the census; (10) census jobs may not be as attractive as other positions, and, if current trends continue, the Bureau could find itself competing for workers in a tight labor market; (11) the Bureau's sampling and statistical estimation procedures, while they could reduce costs and improve accuracy if properly implemented, face methodological, technological, and quality control challenges; (12) in addition to these operational challenges, the Bureau has not finalized its plans for evaluating the dress rehearsal, thus it is not known whether the evaluations will provide needed data to assess the feasibility of the Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census; (13) further, Congress has not endorsed the Bureau's overall design of the 2000 Census because of its concerns over the Bureau's plans to use statistical sampling and estimation procedures; and (14) the longer this impasse continues, the greater likelihood of a failed census.