Scope and Methodology

To review the Bureau’s efforts to increase public participation in the census and to collect timely and accurate field data from nonrespondents, we examined documents that described the Bureau’s budget, plans, procedures, progress, and evaluations relating to these operations. Motivating Public Participation Will Be a Formidable Task

Achieving the Bureau’s Mail Response Rate Objective Will Be Difficult
Outreach and Promotion Program May Have Only a Modest Impact on the Public participation is critical to a successful census because it helps improve the accuracy and completeness of census information, while reducing the Bureau’s costly and time-consuming nonresponse follow-up workload. The mail response rate to the census questionnaire is the most commonly used indicator of the level of public participation.Unfortunately, as shown in figure 1, the mail response rate has declined with each decennial census since the Bureau first initiated a national mailout/mailback approach in 1970. According to the Bureau, this declining trend is due, in part, to various demographic, attitudinal, and other factors, such as concerns over privacy and mistrust of government. However, the dress rehearsal results suggest that even this goal may be optimistic. However, a key ingredient of these response rates was the Bureau’s use of a second, “replacement” questionnaire that was sent to all housing units located in mailout/mailback areas in South Carolina and Sacramento. However, the results of a subsequent Bureau study suggest that the second mailing during the dress rehearsal had an even greater impact on the mail response rate, and, as a result, the Bureau’s current 61-percent response rate objective could be optimistic. 2). 3). Completing Nonresponse Follow-up on Schedule Without Compromising Data Quality May Be Difficult

For the 2000 Census, the Bureau has based its $1.5 billion nonresponse follow-up budget on the assumption that it will achieve a 61-percent mail response rate, which corresponds to a follow-up workload of about 46 million of the 119 million housing units estimated to comprise the nation. 4). Thus, to follow up on 46 million households within the 10-week time frame, the Bureau will need to complete over 657,000 cases each day for the entire 10-week period. For example, while the Bureau was generally successful in staffing its dress rehearsal and initial census operations and kept turnover rates to manageable levels, the larger number of people the Bureau needs to hire in 2000, combined with a tight labor market and other factors, could pose problems. The Bureau plans to fill about 860,000 positions for peak field operations, including 539,000 for nonresponse follow-up. GAO, seeking to do its part to help ensure a successful census, is participating in this initiative. Post-Census Day Coverage Improvement Procedures Offer Little Hope of Resolving the Undercount

The Bureau’s post-census coverage improvement procedures planned for 2000, while designed to improve the census count, are similar to 1990 methods that had limited success. Conclusions

With less than 4 months until Census Day, the Bureau faces some significant risks that, taken together, continue to jeopardize the success of the 2000 Census. Because of these combined risks, the 2000 Census may be less accurate than 1990. Additional funding will not by itself make up for a lower-than-expected mail response rate.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO provided information on the Year 2000 census, focusing on: (1) the need to boost the declining level of public participation in the census; and (2) the Census Bureau's need to collect timely and accurate data from nonrespondents.

What GAO Found

GAO noted: (1) with less than 4 months remaining until Census Day, significant operational uncertainties continue to surround the Bureau's efforts to increase participation in the census and to collect timely and accurate field data from nonrespondents; (2) key to a successful census is the level of public participation, as measured by the questionnaire mail response rate; (3) however, the response rate has been declining since 1970, in part because of various demographic and attitudinal factors, such as more complex housing arrangements and public mistrust of government; (4) based on the 1998 dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census, the Bureau estimates a 61-percent mail response rate in 2000; (5) however, this goal may be optimistic because: (a) a key ingredient of the dress rehearsal mail response rate - a second "replacement" questionnaire - will not be used in 2000 because the Bureau is concerned that the questionnaire could confuse recipients, which could lead to duplicate responses, and (b) while the Bureau has instituted an extensive outreach and promotion effort to help it achieve its desired response rate, dress rehearsal results suggest the Bureau still has not resolved the long-standing challenge of motivating public participation in the census; (6) the Bureau's ability to complete its field operations on time without compromising data quality is another significant risk to a successful census; (7) past experience has shown that following up on nonresponding households is one of the most error-prone and costly of all census-taking activities, requiring the Bureau to fill about 860,000 positions and recruit up to 3.5 million people; (8) even if the Bureau achieves its 61-percent mail response rate objective, it will have a nonresponse follow-up workload of 46 million housing units; (9) to complete this workload in the 10-week time frame that the Bureau has allocated, it will need to close an average of 657,000 cases every day; (10) however, a lower-than-expected mail response rate, difficulties in recruiting a sufficient number of workers in a tight labor market, and a variety of other factors, could undermine the Bureau's efforts and result in higher costs and less accurate data; and (11) while the Bureau has established post-census coverage improvement procedures to improve the accuracy of the 2000 Census data, these procedures are similar to 1990 methods that had limited success.