NOAA is also planning the next generation of  satellites, known as the GOES-R series, which are planned for  launch beginning in 2015. The agency estimated that the revised  program would cost $7 billion. In addition to the reductions in  scope, NOAA also delayed the launch of the first satellite from  September 2012 to December 2014. However, since it relies on the National  Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) acquisition  experience and technical expertise to help ensure the success of its  programs, NOAA implemented an integrated program management  structure with NASA for the GOES-R program. GOES-R Is in Development, but Costs Have Increased, Envisioned Functionality Has Been Reduced, and Schedules Have Been Delayed

NOAA and NASA have made progress on the GOES-R program. Figure 1 depicts the  schedule for both the program and key instruments. After reconciling the program  office’s cost estimate with an independent cost estimate, the agency  established a new program cost estimate of $7.67 billion, an increase  of $670 million from the previous estimate. Because NASA has agreed to a 72-month  development cycle for the spacecraft segment (from contract award  date to launch readiness), the launch date of GOES-R will likely be  delayed until at least May 2015. Any delays in the launch of the first GOES-R satellite run counter to  NOAA’s policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and  could lead to gaps in satellite coverage. The GOES-R Program Office Has Taken Steps to Address Lessons Learned from Other Satellite Programs, but Important Actions Remain

GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite  programs. These actions include ensuring sufficient technical  readiness of the spacecraft and ground segments prior to awarding  the contracts. Specifically, key  technology risks remain—affecting both the ground segment and  the instruments. To date, the  program office has performed integrated baseline reviews on the  instruments and obtains and reviews variance reports for each of  the instruments. NOAA Has Not Developed Plans for Meeting Requirements for Advanced Products

Before it was cancelled in September 2006, the Hyperspectral  Environmental Suite was originally planned as part of the GOES-R  satellite series to meet requirements for products that are currently  produced by GOES satellites as well as new technically-advanced  products not currently produced by GOES satellites. Until a decision is made on whether and how to  provide the advanced products, key system users will not be able to  meet their goals for improving the lead times or accuracy of severe  weather warnings, and climate research organizations will not  obtain the data they need to enhance the science of climate, coastal,  environmental, and oceanic observations. Until NOAA  and NASA act to address this risk, the United States’ ability to  maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting is in  jeopardy. In addition, NOAA has not yet developed a plan or a  timeline for recovering the advanced capabilities that were  removed.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). GOES-R is to replace the current series of satellites, which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful lives in 2014. This series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to summarize its report being released today that (1) determines the status of the GOES-R program, (2) evaluates whether plans for the acquisition address problems experienced on similar programs, and (3) determines whether NOAA's plan will be adequate to support current data requirements.

What GAO Found

NOAA has made progress on the GOES-R acquisition, but the program's cost, schedule, and scope have changed. The GOES-R program has awarded development contracts for key instruments and plans to award contracts for the spacecraft and ground segments by mid-2009. However, after reconciling program and independent cost estimates, the program established a new cost estimate of $7.67 billion--a $670 million increase from the prior $7 billion estimate. The program also reduced the number of products the satellites will produce from 81 to 34 and slowed the delivery of these products in order to reduce costs. More recently, the program also delayed key milestones, including the launch of the first satellite, which will likely be delayed from December 2014 until at least May 2015. This delay in the GOES-R launch runs counter to NOAA's policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times and could lead to gaps in satellite coverage if GOES-O or P fail prematurely. GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite programs, but important actions remain to be completed. These actions include ensuring sufficient technical readiness of the system's components prior to key decisions. However, technical challenges remain on the ground segment and instruments, the program did not perform a comprehensive review after rebaselining a critical instrument, and it has not documented all of the reasons for cost overruns. Until these issues are addressed, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program will repeat the same mistakes that have plagued other satellite programs. While NOAA and the science community expressed a continuing need for advanced products that were removed from the program, the agency has not developed plans or a timeline for meeting these requirements. Until a decision is made on whether and how to proceed in providing the advanced products, key system users, such as weather forecasters, will not be able to meet their goals for improving the accuracy of severe weather warnings.