Progress Made in Completing Early Design, but Milestones Were Completed Late and Development Costs Have Increased

While the GOES-R program has made progress in completing its early  design and is nearing the end of the design phase for its flight and ground  system components, it completed key design milestones later than  planned. Recent technical problems with the instruments and spacecraft,  as well as a significant modification to the ground project’s development  plan, have delayed the completion of key reviews and led to increased  complexity for GOES-R’s development. In addition to the delays, the technical and  programmatic challenges experienced by GOES-R’s flight and ground  projects have led to increased costs for its development contracts. Despite these problems, program officials report that planned launch  dates and cost estimates for the first two satellites have not changed, and  that approximately $1.2 billion is currently in reserve to manage future  delays and cost growth. Despite recent delays in program  milestones, NOAA still expects to meet an October 2015 launch date for  the first satellite in the series by utilizing planned schedule reserves. At completion of the GOES-R program’s preliminary design review in  February 2012, the program reported that it was within its thresholds  because it had maintained 20 percent of planned remaining development  costs as reserve for the flight project, 32 percent of planned remaining  development costs for the ground project, and 10 percent of planned  remaining development costs for the program office. GOES-R Schedules Are Not Fully Reliable, Contributing to Milestone and Potential Launch Date Delays

The success in management of a large-scale program depends in part on  having an integrated and reliable schedule that defines, among other  things, when work activities and milestone events will occur, how long  they will take, and how they are related to one another. While the GOES-R program has  adopted certain scheduling best practices at both the programwide and  contractor levels, unresolved weaknesses also exist, some of which have  contributed to current program milestone delays and a replanning of the  Core Ground System’s schedule. Until the program’s scheduling  weaknesses are corrected, it may experience additional delays to its key  milestones. This initiative is intended to address a program-recognized need to conduct  a schedule risk analysis (related to best practice 8). Program documentation indicates that  with the current launch readiness date of October 2015, plus an on-orbit  testing period, there is a 37 percent chance of a gap in the availability of  two operational GOES-series satellites at any one time, assuming a  normal lifespan for the satellites currently on-orbit. This could result in the need for NOAA to rely on older  satellites that are not fully functional. NOAA has established policies and procedures for effective risk  management for GOES-R. For example, the program has documented a  strategy for managing risks that includes important elements, such as  relevant stakeholders and their responsibilities and the criteria for  evaluating, categorizing, and prioritizing risks. The Program Has Not Fully Implemented Its Risk Management Process or Adequately Mitigated Key Risks

While the program has a well-defined risk management process, this  process has not been fully implemented. In addition, the program did not always document its risk handling  strategies and time frames and did not always provide adequate rationale  for its decision to close risks. However, the program has used approximately 30 percent of  its reserves over the last 3 years and significant portions of development  remain for major components—including the spacecraft and Core Ground  System. Unless NOAA assesses the reserve allocations across all of the  program’s development efforts, it may not be able to ensure that its  reserves will cover ongoing challenges as well as unexpected problems  for the remaining development of all four satellites in the series. Until program officials diligently execute all of the program’s defined risk  management practices and integrate these with improvements in the  management of reserves and schedules, the program is at risk of  exceeding cost and schedule targets and further slipping launch dates for  satellites in the GOES-R series. NOAA concurred with our second recommendation to address shortfalls  that we identified in schedule management practices and stated that the  program will continue to bring down the number of errors in the schedules  and improve the fidelity of the program’s integrated master schedule. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) assess the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration’s (NOAA) progress in developing the Geostationary  Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) program, (2)  evaluate whether the agency has a reliable schedule for executing the  program, and (3) determine whether the program is applying best  practices in managing and mitigating its risks.
Why GAO Did This Study

The GOES-R series is a set of four satellites intended to replace existing weather satellites that will likely reach the end of their useful lives in about 2015. NOAA estimates the series to cost $10.9 billion through 2036. Because the transition to the series is critical to the nations ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting, GAO reviewed NOAAs management of the GOES-R program.
Specifically, GAO was asked to (1) assess NOAAs progress in developing the GOES-R satellite program, (2) evaluate whether the agency has a reliable schedule for executing the program, and (3) determine whether the program is applying best practices in managing and mitigating its risks.
GAO analyzed program management, acquisition, and cost data; evaluated contractor and program-wide schedules against best practices; analyzed program documentation including risk management plans and procedures; and interviewed government and contractor staff regarding program progress and challenges.

What GAO Found

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) program has made progress by completing its early design milestones and is nearing the end of the design phase for its spacecraft, instrument, and ground system components. While the program continues to make progress, recent technical problems with the instruments and spacecraft, as well as a significant modification to the ground projects development plan, have delayed the completion of key reviews and led to increased complexity for the development of GOES-R. The technical and programmatic challenges experienced by the flight and ground projects have led to a 19-month delay in completing the programs preliminary design review. Nevertheless, program officials report that its planned launch date of October 2015 for the first satellite has not changed. While the program reports that approximately $1.2 billion is currently in reserve to manage future delays and cost growth, significant portions of development remain for major components. As a result, the program may not be able to ensure that it has adequate resources to cover ongoing challenges as well as unexpected problems for the remaining development of all four satellites.
The success in management of a large-scale program depends in part on having a reliable schedule that defines, among other things, when work activities and milestone events will occur, how long they will take, and how they are related to one another. To its credit, the program has adopted key scheduling best practices and has recognized certain scheduling weaknesses. It has also recently instituted initiatives to automate its integrated master schedule, correct integration problems among projects, and assess schedule confidence based on risk. However, unresolved schedule deficiencies remain in its integrated master schedule and the contractor schedules that support it, which have contributed to a re-plan of the schedule of the ground system and to the potential for delays to satellite launch dates. The program recently determined that the likelihood of the first satellite meeting its planned October 2015 launch date is 48 percent. Based on this planned launch date, the program reports that there is a 37 percent chance of a gap in the availability of two operational GOES-series satellites, which could result in the need for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to rely on older satellites that are not fully functional. Until its scheduling weaknesses are addressed, it will be more difficult for the program to know whether its planned remaining development is on schedule.
NOAA has established policies and procedures that conform with recognized risk management best practices. For example, the program has documented a strategy for managing risks that includes important elements, such as relevant stakeholders and their responsibilities and the criteria for evaluating, categorizing, and prioritizing risks. However, while the program has a well- defined risk management process, it has not been fully implemented. For example, the program has not provided adequate or timely evaluations for potential risks, did not always provide adequate rationale for the decision to close a risk, and has at least two critical risks in need of additional attention. Until all defined risk management practices are diligently executed and critical risks adequately mitigated, the GOES-R program is at risk of exceeding cost and schedule targets, and launch dates could slip.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is making recommendations to NOAA to assess and report reserves needed over the life of the program, improve the reliability of its schedules, and address identified program risks. NOAA concurred or partially concurred with GAOs recommendations.