	Introduction

Each year, in October, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEWFO). However, the 2016-2017 winter fuel season was warmer than normal. On average, the EIA projects that U.S. household expenditures on heating fuel for the 2017-2018 heating season will increase for all households irrespective of the heating fuel utilized. The STEWFO projects, on average, natural gas to be the lowest-cost heating source for the winter of 2017-2018. The projected heating oil expenditure for winter 2017-2018 is more than double the total expenditure for a household heating with natural gas ($631), and two-thirds higher than a household heating with electricity, $967. Propane consumers are projected to experience an increased expenditure of about $211, or 10.6% in the Northeast, while consumers in the Midwest are projected to experience an increase of $276, or 23.5%. Heating Expenditure Assistance

The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP ) is the primary federal government program to supplement home heating expenditures. LIHEAP funding for FY2018 has been set at $3.39 billion (Continuing Appropriations Resolution, 2018, P.L. 115-56 ). If the weather in the winter of 2017-2018 is severe, or if energy prices are volatile, the fixed amount of LIHEAP funding will likely result in smaller assistance payments to families, or fewer families receiving payments. Fuel costs are generally expected to be higher than last year and the weather is expected to be colder.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEWFO) for the 2017-2018 winter heating season, projects that American consumers should expect to see heating expenditures that will be higher than last winter. However, the winter of 2016-2017 was relatively warm. Average expenditures for those heating with natural gas are projected to increase by 12%, while those heating with electricity are projected to see an increase of about 8%. These two fuels serve as the heating source for about 87% of all U.S. household heating. Propane and home heating oil consumers are also projected to see increased costs.
Within the United States, average expenditures projections differences exist with respect to region of the country. Differences in weather conditions and fuel prices contribute to differing regional expenditures.
Economic conditions of relatively high growth and low unemployment suggest that higher consumption levels of all fuels may occur. Increased consumption could lead to higher prices for all winter fuels. The STEWFO provides analysis of scenarios covering a warmer, or colder, winter than the base case forecast.
The key federal program designed to assist low-income households is the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). LIHEAP funding beyond the expiration of the Continuing Appropriations Resolution (P.L. 115-56) is uncertain and if reduced could put an additional burden on families qualified for benefits. If the weather in the winter of 2017-2018 is severe, or if energy prices are volatile, the fixed amount of LIHEAP funding will likely result in smaller assistance payments to families, or fewer families receiving payments.