These images, products, and models are all used by weather  forecasters, the military, and the public. Figure 1 illustrates the  current operational polar satellite configuration. The converged program, NPOESS,  is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the  continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate  monitoring through the year 2020. In addition, the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), which is being  developed as a major risk reduction and climate data continuity initiative,  is a planned demonstration satellite to be launched several years before  the first NPOESS satellite is to be launched. Before the  contract was awarded in 2002, the life cycle cost estimate for the program  was estimated to be $6.5 billion over the 24-year period from the inception  of the program in 1995 through 2018. NPOESS has continued to experience  problems in the development of a key sensor, resulting in schedule delays  and anticipated cost increases. Regarding NPOESS schedule, the program  office anticipated at least a 10-month delay in the launch of the first  satellite (totaling at least a 17-month delay from the time the contract was  awarded) and a 6-month delay in the launch of the second satellite. This is significant because if the last  POES satellite fails on launch, it will be at least 3 years before the first  NPOESS satellite could be launched. Adding our projected $1.4 billion  overrun to the prior $8.1 billion life cycle cost estimate and the project  office’s estimated need for $225 million in additional management costs  brings the total life cycle cost of the program to about $9.7 billion. Given the history of large cost  increases and the factors that could further affect NPOESS costs and  schedules, continued oversight, strong leadership, and timely decision  making are more critical than ever. Options for Moving Forward Are under Consideration, but Cost, Schedule, and Impact on Users Are Not Fully Understood

In August 2005, the program office briefed its Executive Committee on the  program’s cost, schedule, and risks. New Options Under Consideration Would Affect Cost, Schedule, and System Users; Full Extent Unknown

Last week, we learned that in addition to the five options presented in  August 2005, program executives are considering nine new options. Until a decision is made, the  program remains without a plan for moving forward. Further, there are  opportunity costs in not making a decision—that is, some options may no  longer be viable, contractors are not working towards a chosen solution,  and other potential options become more difficult to implement  Clearly, timely decisions are needed to allow the program to move forward  and for satellite data users to start planning for any data shortfalls they  may experience. Over the last few years, it has  been troubled by technical problems, cost increases, and schedule delays. Looking forward, technical challenges persist; costs are likely to grow; and  schedule delays could lead to gaps in satellite coverage. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) discuss the National Polar-orbiting Operational  Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program’s schedule, cost,  trends, and risks and (2) describe plans and implications for moving the  program forward.
Why GAO Did This Study

Polar-orbiting environmental satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. Our nation's current operational polar-orbiting environmental satellite program is a complex infrastructure that includes two satellite systems, supporting ground stations, and four central data processing centers. In the future, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is to combine the two current systems into a single, state-of-the-art environment-monitoring satellite system. This new satellite system is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2020. GAO was asked to discuss the NPOESS program's schedule, cost, trends, and risks, and to describe plans and implications for moving the program forward.

What GAO Found

The NPOESS program has experienced continued schedule delays, cost increases, and technical challenges over the last several years. The schedule for the launch of the first satellite has been delayed by at least 17 months (until September 2010 at the earliest), and this delay could result in a gap in satellite coverage of at least 3 years if the last satellite in the prior series fails on launch. Program life cycle cost estimates have grown from $6.5 billion in 2002 to $8.1 billion in 2004 and are still growing. While the program is currently reassessing its life cycle cost estimates, our analysis of contractor trends as of September 2005 shows a likely $1.4 billion contract cost overrun--bringing the life cycle cost estimate to about $9.7 billion. Technical risks in developing key sensors continue, and could lead to further cost increases and schedule delays. As a result of expected program cost growth, the Executive Committee responsible for the program is evaluating options for moving the program forward--and new cost estimates for those options. Key options under consideration in August 2005 included removing a key sensor from the first satellite, delaying launches of the first two satellites, and not launching a preliminary risk-reduction satellite. All of these options impact the program's cost, schedules, and the system users who rely on satellite data to develop critical weather products and forecasts--although the full extent of that impact is not clear. Further, last week GAO was informed that there are nine new options now under consideration, and that they are likely to impact costs, schedules, and system users. Until a decision is made, the program remains without a plan for moving forward. Further, there are opportunity costs in not making a decision--some options are lost and others may become more difficult. Given the history of large cost increases and the factors that could further affect NPOESS costs and schedules, continued oversight, strong leadership, and timely decision making are more critical than ever.