O n August 31, 2015, the New York Times ( Times ) ran a story with the headline "Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. The Times story followed reports from other media outlets about a growing number of violent crimes in some cities. The general consensus is that it is too early to draw any conclusions about the reversal of long-term trends. Also, there are several explanations for why some cities might be experiencing an increase in violent crime other than that the recent era of diminishing violent crime is coming to a close. Violent Crime and Homicide Trends in the United States

Reports of an increasing number of violent crimes in some cities do not necessarily mean that the United States is in the midst of a crime wave. Violent crime and homicide rates have been trending downward for more than two decades ( Figure 1 ). For example, even though violent crime and homicide rates have been on a downward trend since the early 1990s, there were years where one or both increased, but those year-to-year increases did not portend a break in the overall trend. There are several factors that might help explain some of the reported upticks in violent crime across the country: 
Year-to-year changes in crime rates can be subject to random fluctuations and not related to how the police do their job . Crime is subject to seasonal effects. Percentage change in reported crimes is a relative measure and is sensitive to magnitude. Data from the nation's 60 most populous cities show that reported homicides were up 16% overall and up by 20% or more in 26 cities. The majority of cities (44 of 60) have not seen statistically significant increases in homicides, but the overall increase in homicides is statistically significant. Select Theories About Why Violent Crime is Increasing in Some Cities

While it might be too early to make any definitive conclusions about whether there has been a reversal of the decades-long decrease in violent crime, several commentators have speculated about why some cities are experiencing spikes in violent crime. Specifically, this theory suggests that in the wake of recent high-profile officer-involved deaths , the police have become reluctant to engage in proactive policing, thereby emboldening criminals. Another theory is that law enforcement is facing a legitimacy problem in communities where residents feel that they are not treated fairly by the police. Two criminologists argue that when people lose trust in the police they are more likely to take matters into their own hands when conflicts arise. It's the repeat offenders. There is discussion about whether increasing violent crime rates in some cities highlights the lack of nationwide "real time" crime data. More frequent and consistent crime data might be able to provide more insight into crime trends.
On August 31, 2015, the New York Times ran an article with the headline "Murder Rates Rising Sharply in Many U.S. Cities." The story highlighted double-digit percentage increases in homicide rates in several cities, and came on the heels of reports from other media outlets of recent spikes in violent crime in cities across the country. Accounts of rising violent crime rates in some cities have generated speculation about whether the United States is in the midst of a new crime wave.
Overall, homicide and violent crime rates have been trending downward for more than two decades, and both rates are at historic lows. An analysis comparing 2014 and 2015 homicide data from the nation's 60 most populous cities suggests that violent crime is not increasing. Overall, reported homicides were up 16% in 2015, but a majority of cities (44 of 60) have not seen a statistically significant increase in homicides. The general consensus is that it is too early to draw any conclusions about the reversal of long-term trends. Also, even if homicide and violent crime rates do increase this year, it may not portend a break in the long-term trend. Even though both rates have been on a downward trend since 1990, there were years where either the homicide rate or violent crime rate increased.
There are several short-term factors that might help explain some of the reported upticks in violent crime across the country.
Year-to-year changes in crime rates can be subject to random fluctuations. Crime rates are subject to seasonal effects. Many cities are experiencing increases from historically low levels of crime. Percentage change in reported crimes is a relative measure and is sensitive to magnitude.
While it might be too early to make any definitive conclusions about whether violent crime is on the rise, several commentators have speculated as to why some cities are experiencing spikes in violent crimes. Suggested explanations include the following:
The "Ferguson effect" (i.e., in the wake of a spate of high-profile officer-involved deaths, police have become reluctant to engage in proactive policing, thereby emboldening criminals). Law enforcement is facing a legitimacy problem in some communities where residents feel that they are not treated fairly by the police, and this may mean that people are more likely to take matters into their own hands when conflicts arise. The increase in violence can be attributed to battles between gangs for control of drug turf or released violent offenders committing new crimes.
The recent discussion about the increases in violent crime in some cities might raise the question of whether there is a need for more "real time" nationwide crime statistics. More frequent and consistent crime data might be able to provide greater insight into crime trends. However, there are logistical issues involved with collecting and reporting timely and accurate crime statistics from the nation's approximately 18,000 law enforcement agencies.