The Bureau Completed NRFU $660 Million under Budget

The Bureau budgeted that NRFU would cost around $2.25 billion. However, by the end of the operation, the Bureau reported using  approximately $1.59 billion, which was 29 percent lower than budgeted. However, a majority of LCOs generally finished their NRFU  workloads ahead of this 10-week time frame. Significantly, our analysis of Bureau data found that the fast pace of NRFU  was associated with the collection of less-complete household data. Indeed, after controlling for such variables as response rate and local  enumeration challenges, we found that LCOs with higher percentages of  proxy interviews and closeout interviews were more likely to have  finished NRFU in 53 days or less (the average amount of time LCOs took  to complete their NRFU workloads) compared to LCOs with lower  percentages of proxy and closeout interviews. Although the IT systems  ultimately functioned well enough for the Bureau to carry out the census,  workarounds developed to address performance problems with PBOCS— a workflow-management system crucial for the Bureau’s field  operations—adversely affected the Bureau’s ability to implement key  quality-assurance procedures as planned. More generally, as the Bureau prepares for 2020, among other actions it  will be important for it to continue to improve its ability to manage its IT  investments. Key Follow-up Operations Were Generally Completed as Planned

		Vacant/Delete Check Operation Finished ahead of Schedule but over Budget

To help ensure that people are counted only once and in the right place, as  well as to collect complete and correct information about them, after  NRFU the Bureau conducts a number of operations designed to improve  the accuracy of the data. One of these operations is the VDC operation,  where enumerators verified the Census Day status of vacant and deleted  (nonexistent) housing units. Fundamental Reforms Will Be Needed for a More Cost-Effective Census in 2020

While it will be important to assess and revamp existing census-taking  activities, the results of prior enumerations underscore the fact that simply  refining current methods—many of which have been in place for  decades—will not bring about the reforms needed to control costs while  maintaining accuracy given ongoing and newly emerging societal trends. Over time, because of demographic  and attitudinal trends, securing an acceptable response rate has become  an increasing challenge, and the Bureau has spent more money with each  census in order to secure a complete count. Indeed, the cost of conducting  the census has, on average, doubled each decade since 1970, in constant  2010 dollars. What was the intended  goal? The Bureau, recognizing that it cannot afford to continue operating the  way it does unless it fundamentally changes its method of doing business,  has already taken some important first steps in addressing these questions  as well as other areas. On the basis of our work on planning for  the 2010 Census, a road map for 2020 could include, but not be limited to,  the following elements that could be updated on a regular basis:    specific, measurable performance goals, how the Bureau’s efforts,  procedures, and projects would contribute to those goals, and what  performance measures would be used;    descriptions of how the Bureau’s approaches to human-capital  management, organizational structure, IT acquisitions, and other internal  functions are aligned with the performance goals;    an assessment of the risks associated with each significant decennial  operation, including the interrelationships between the operations and a  description of relevant mitigation plans;    detailed milestone estimates for each significant decennial operation,  including estimated testing dates, and justification for any changes to  milestone estimates;   detailed life-cycle cost estimates of the decennial census that are credible,  comprehensive, accurate, and well-documented as stipulated by Office of  Management and Budget and GAO guidance; and     a detailed description of all significant contracts the Bureau plans to enter  into and a justification for the contracts. Recommendations for Executive Action

As the Bureau plans for the next decennial census in 2020, in order to  support efforts to reexamine the fundamental design of the decennial  census, and help refine existing operations should they be used again in  the 2020 Census, we recommend that the Secretary of Commerce direct  the Under Secretary of the Economics and Statistics Administration, as  well as the Census Director, to take the following six actions:    To help enhance the Bureau’s performance and accountability, improve  the transparency of the planning process, gauge whether the Bureau is on- track toward a more cost-effective 2020 Census, and foster greater public  dialog about the census, the Bureau should develop an operational plan or  road map for 2020 that integrates performance, budget, methodological,  schedule, and other information that would be updated as needed and  posted on the Bureau’s Web site and other social media outlets, and  develop a mechanism that allows for and harnesses input from census  stakeholders and individuals. The Department of Commerce generally agreed with the overall findings  and recommendations of the report. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

The objectives of this report were to assess the implementation of (1)  nonresponse follow-up (NRFU), the largest and most costly census field  operation, where the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) sends enumerators to  collect data from households that did not mail back their census forms,  and (2) other key follow-up field operations that were critical for ensuring  a complete count; and (3) identify key questions and focus areas that will  be important for the Bureau, Congress, and census stakeholders to  consider going forward now that planning for the next enumeration is  underway. The survey  was designed to examine (1) factors that affect the cost and performance  of local data collection efforts, and (2) LCO managers’ satisfaction with  information technology (IT) systems and other management support  functions.
Why GAO Did This Study

Although the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) generally completed the field data collection phase of the 2010 Census consistent with its operational plans, at $13 billion, 2010 was the costliest census in the nation's history. Moving forward, it will be important to both refine existing operations as well as to reexamine the fundamental approach to the census to better address long-standing issues such as securing participation and escalating costs. As requested, this report reviews (1) the conduct of nonresponse follow-up (NRFU), where enumerators collect data from households that did not return their census forms, (2) the implementation of other field operations critical to a complete count, and (3) potential reexamination areas that could help produce a more cost-effective 2020 Census. The report is based on GAO's analysis of Bureau data and documents, surveys of local census office managers, and field observations.

What GAO Found

Nationally, the Bureau was well positioned to implement NRFU and subsequent field operations. The Bureau achieved a mail response rate of 63 percent, which was within its expectations, and recruited nearly 3.8 million total applicants for census jobs, which was 104 percent of its staffing goal. Moreover, the Bureau completed NRFU under budget, reportedly spending $1.59 billion on the operation, about $660 million (29 percent) less than the Bureau initially estimated. Most of the Bureau's local census offices (LCO) also completed NRFU ahead of the 10-week allotted time frame. Despite these operational successes, the Bureau encountered some notable challenges. For example, the pace of NRFU may have fostered a culture that tended to emphasize speed over quality, as those LCOs with higher percentages of less-complete questionnaires were more likely to have completed NRFU in 53 days or less (the average time LCOs took to complete NRFU). The Bureau also had to overcome issues with critical information technology (IT) systems. For example, performance problems with the IT system used to manage NRFU led to processing backlogs. Although the Bureau developed workarounds for the issue, it hindered the Bureau's ability to fully implement quality-assurance procedures as planned. The Bureau generally completed other follow-up operations designed to improve the accuracy of the data consistent with its plans. One of these activities was the vacant/delete check (VDC), where enumerators verified housing units thought to be vacant or nonexistent. The Bureau completed VDC two days ahead of schedule, but encountered duplicate addresses on the address list used for the operation, which could indicate a more systemic problem with the quality of the Bureau's address list. While it will be important to refine existing census-taking activities--many of which have been in place since 1970--results of prior censuses point to the fact that simply improving current methods will not bring about the reforms needed to control costs and maintain accuracy. The cost of conducting the census has, on average, doubled each decade since 1970. At the same time, because of demographic and attitudinal trends, securing a complete count has become an increasing challenge. As a result, a fundamental reexamination of the nation's approach to the census will be needed for a more cost-effective enumeration in 2020. Potential focus areas include new data collection methods; the tenure of the Census Director; and ensuring the Bureau's approaches to human-capital management, knowledge sharing, and other internal functions are aligned toward delivering more cost-effective outcomes. The Bureau recognizes that fundamental changes are needed and has already taken some important first steps, including developing a strategic plan. To help ensure the Bureau's efforts stay on track and to avoid problems it had in planning for prior censuses, it will be important for the Bureau to issue a comprehensive operational plan that includes performance goals, milestones, cost estimates, and other critical information that could be updated regularly.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Census Director refine NRFU and other field follow-up efforts by, among other things, emphasizing quality as much as speed during NRFU and by incorporating best practices in its IT acquisition-management policy. To help ensure reform efforts stay on track, the Bureau should develop an operational plan that integrates performance, budget, and other information. The Department of Commerce generally agreed with GAO's findings and recommendations.