However, our reviews of the 1990, 2000, and the 2010  Censuses have shown that early planning, the use of leading  management practices, and strong congressional oversight can help  reduce the costs and risks of the national headcount. Lesson Learned 1: Reexamine the Nation’s Approach to Taking the Census

In our April 2011 testimony, we noted that based on the results of prior  enumerations, simply refining current methods—some of which have  been in place for decades—will not bring about the reforms needed to  control costs while maintaining accuracy given ongoing and newly  emerging societal trends such as concerns over personal privacy and an  increasingly diverse population.reconsider the nation’s approach to the census including rethinking such  activities as how it plans, tests, implements, monitors, and evaluates  enumeration activities. The Bureau is also researching how it can use administrative records to  reduce the cost of certain decennial activities. During the 2010 Census, the Bureau made only limited  use of administrative records. Lesson Learned 2: Assess and Refine Existing Operations Focusing on Tailoring Them to Specific Locations and Population Groups

We previously found that leveraging such data as local response rates,  census socio-demographic information, as well as other data sources and  empirical evidence, might help control costs and improve accuracy by  providing information on ways the Bureau could more efficiently allocate  its resources. The 2010 Census had several census-taking activities tailored to specific  population groups. Other efforts included mailing a  bilingual English/Spanish questionnaire in some areas, and sending a  second “replacement” census questionnaire to about 53 million  households in areas with historically lower response rates. Preliminary  Bureau evaluations suggest that some of these targeted efforts  contributed to an increased awareness of the census and were  associated with higher questionnaire mail-back response rates. This operation is important for building an accurate address list. Designing future studies to better isolate the return on  investment would help the Bureau further tailor its operations to specific  population groups and locations and potentially generate substantial cost  savings. Lesson Learned 3: Institutionalize Efforts to Address High-Risk Areas

A key priority for the Bureau will be to continue to address those  shortcomings that led us to designate the 2010 Census a high-risk area in  2008, including strengthening its ability to develop reliable life-cycle cost  estimates and following key practices important for managing information  technology (IT) so that they do not recur in 2020. The Bureau has made  progress in these areas. In our January  2012 report, we found that the Bureau had not yet established  policies, procedures, or guidance for developing the 2020 Census life  cycle cost estimate and is at risk of not following related best  practices. As the Bureau prepares for 2020, it will be  important for it to continue to improve its ability to manage its IT  investments. Lesson Learned 4: Ensure that the Bureau’s Management, Culture, and Business Practices Align with a Cost-Effective Enumeration

As we noted in our May 2012 report, the Bureau’s early planning and  preparation efforts for the 2020 Census are consistent with most leading  practices in each of three management areas we reviewed— organizational transformation, long-term planning, and strategic workforce  planning. These are important steps forward that, if continued, could help  the Bureau’s planning stay on track for 2020. However, the Bureau’s  schedule does not include milestones or deadlines for key decisions  needed to support transition between the planning phases which could  result in later downstream planning activity not being based on evidence  from such sources as early research and testing. While the Bureau’s efforts are largely consistent with leading practices in  each of these areas, in our May 2012 report, we noted that additional  steps could be taken going forward to build on these early planning  efforts. Specifically, we recommended that the Director take a number of  actions to make 2020 Census planning more consistent with key  practices in the three management areas, such as examining planned  transformation activity to ensure its alignment with resources, developing  a more-detailed long-term schedule to smooth transition to later planning  phases, and setting workforce planning goals and monitor them to ensure  their attainment. The Department of Commerce concurred with our  findings and recommendations and has taken steps to address our  recommendations. Concluding Observations

The Bureau is moving forward along a number of fronts to secure a more  cost-effective 2020 enumeration. The Bureau’s initial preparations  for 2020 are making progress. Decennial Census: Additional Actions Could Improve the Census  Bureau’s Ability to Control Costs for the 2020 Census. This is a work of the U.S. government and is not subject to copyright protection in the  United States.
Why GAO Did This Study

Obtaining an accurate census in the face of societal trends such as increased privacy concerns and a more diverse population has greatly increased the cost of the census. At $13 billion, 2010 was the costliest census in U.S. history. Without changes, future enumerations could be fiscally unsustainable. GAOs past work noted that early planning, leading management practices, and strong congressional oversight, can help reduce the costs and risks of the enumeration. GAO also identified four key lessons learned from 2010 that could help secure a more cost-effective 2020 Census. The Bureau agreed and is taking steps to address them. As requested, this testimony focuses on the Bureaus progress on these lessons learned and what remains to be done going forward. It is based on GAOs completed work, including an analysis of Bureau documents, interviews with Bureau officials, and field observations of census operations in urban and rural locations across the country.

What GAO Found

Overall, the U.S. Census Bureaus (Bureau) planning efforts for 2020 are off to a good start, as the Bureau made noteworthy progress within each of the four lessons learned from the 2010 Census. Still, additional steps will be needed within each of the lessons learned in order to sustain those reforms.
1. Reexamine the nations approach to taking the Census. The Bureau has used a similar approach to count most of the population for decades. However, the approach has not kept pace with changes to society. Moving forward, the Bureau has begun to rethink its approach to planning, testing, implementing, and monitoring the census. For example, the Bureau is researching how it can use administrative records, such as data from other government agencies, to locate and count people including nonrespondents. Use of administrative records could help reduce the cost of field operations, but data quality and access issues must first be resolved.
2. Assess and refine existing operations focusing on tailoring them to specific locations and population groups. The 2010 Census had several operations tailored to specific population groups or locales. For example, the Bureau mailed bilingual English/Spanish forms to some areas and sent a second questionnaire to areas with historically lower response rates. Preliminary evaluations show these targeted efforts contributed to an increased awareness of the census and higher mail-back response rates. For 2020, the Bureau is considering expanding these efforts. Designing future studies to better isolate the return on investment of key census operations would help the Bureau further target its operations to specific population groups and locations and potentially gain significant cost savings.
3. Institutionalize efforts to address high-risk areas. Focus areas for the Bureau include improving its ability to manage information technology (IT) investments and develop a reliable cost estimates. In January 2012, GAO reported that the Bureau did not have policies and procedures for developing the 2020 Census cost estimate. In moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau to improve its IT acquisition management policies and develop better guidance to produce more reliable cost estimates.
4. Ensure that the Bureaus management, culture, and business practices align with a cost-effective enumeration. In May 2012, GAO reported that the Bureaus early planning efforts for the 2020 Census were consistent with most leading practices for organizational transformation, long term planning, and strategic workforce planning. Nevertheless, GAO found that additional steps could be taken to build on these early efforts. For example, the Bureaus schedule does not include milestones for key decisions to support the transition between planning phases. These milestones are important and could help with later downstream planning.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making new recommendations in this testimony, but past reports recommended that the Bureau strengthen its testing of key IT systems, develop policies and procedures for its cost estimates, and take actions to make 2020 Census planning more consistent with leading management practices. The Bureau generally agreed with GAOs findings and recommendations and is taking steps to implement them.