The GOES-R series is the next generation of  satellites that NOAA is planning. The  program estimates that the development for all four satellites in the  GOES-R series—GOES-R, GOES-S, GOES-T, and GOES-U—is to cost  $10.9 billion through 2036, an increase of $3.2 billion over its prior life  cycle cost estimate of $7.67 billion for the two-satellite program. Improving communications with external users. Developing contingency plans. In that report, we  noted that NOAA had established a contingency plan for a potential  gap in the GOES program, but it needed to demonstrate its progress  in coordinating with the user community to determine their most  critical requirements, conducting training and simulations for  contingency operations scenarios, evaluating the status of viable  foreign satellites, and working with the user community to account for  differences in product coverage under contingency operations  scenarios. NOAA Has Made Progress in Developing GOES-R, but Continues to Face Challenges that Could Increase the Risk of a Satellite Data Gap

NOAA has completed its design of the GOES-R program, and has made  progress in building components of the flight and ground segments. However, key information on reserves  has not been reported to management. These challenges have the potential to impact  the expected launch date of the first GOES-R satellite, which would delay  the availability of an on-orbit backup and increase the potential for a gap  in GOES satellite coverage should either of the two operational satellites  fail prematurely. NOAA has improved elements of the schedules for both components. Without a full  complement of operational GOES satellites, the nation’s ability to  maintain the continuity of data required for effective weather forecasting  could be compromised. These changes involved strengthening or relaxing  specifications on selected products, finalizing a decision not to develop 31  products, and modifying programmatic requirements not tied to any  individual product. By  doing so, satellite data users can establish plans to mitigate any shortfalls  in data and minimize the impact of the changes on their operations. When compared to best practices, NOAA’s satellite and ground system  contingency plans had many strengths and a few weaknesses. Given the  potential for a delay in the launch of the GOES-R satellite and the  expectation that there will be at least a year with no backup satellite in  orbit, it is important that NOAA consider ways to prevent a delay in the  GOES-R launch, and ensure its contingency plans are fully documented,  tested, and communicated to affected stakeholders. As  the agency closes in on its expected launch date, technical issues in  developing the space and ground segments and scheduling problems  could make it more difficult to launch on schedule, and program officials  now acknowledge that the launch date may be delayed by 6 months. Specifically, internal NOAA and external satellite data users  were not fully informed about changes in GOES-R requirements and did  not have a chance to communicate their concerns about the impact these  changes could have on their ability to perform their missions. Until NOAA  improves its outreach and communication with external satellite data  users, its changes in requirements could cause unexpected impacts on  critical user operations. They also did not identify  alternative solutions or time lines for preventing a delay in the GOES-R  launch date. NOAA concurred  with all four of our recommendations and identified steps that it is taking  to implement them. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) assess the National Oceanic and Atmospheric  Administration’s (NOAA) progress in developing the Geostationary  Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) program and in  addressing key cost and schedule risks that we identified in a prior report,  (2) evaluate the program’s efforts to manage changes in requirements  and whether any significant changes have recently occurred, and (3)  evaluate the adequacy of GOES-R contingency plans. We also identified concerns about  these changes from a subset of satellite data users.
Why GAO Did This Study

NOAA, with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), is procuring the next generation of geostationary weather satellites. The GOES-R series is to replace the current series of satellites (called GOES-13, -14, and -15), which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful lives in 2015. This new series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of satellite data required for weather forecasting through 2036.
GAO was asked to evaluate GOES-R. GAO's objectives were to (1) assess GOES-R progress and efforts to address key cost and schedule risks; (2) evaluate efforts to manage changes in requirements and whether any significant changes have recently occurred; and (3) evaluate the adequacy of GOES-R contingency plans. To do so, GAO analyzed program and contractor data, compared GOES-R schedules, requirements changes, and contingency plans to best practices by leading organizations, and interviewed officials at NOAA, NASA, and at other federal agencies that rely on GOES.

What GAO Found

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has completed the design of its Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series and made progress in building flight and ground components. While the program reports that it is on track to stay within its $10.9 billion life cycle cost estimate, it has not reported key information on reserve funds to senior management. Also, the program has delayed interim milestones, is experiencing technical issues, and continues to demonstrate weaknesses in the development of component schedules. These factors have the potential to affect the expected October 2015 launch date of the first GOES-R satellite, and program officials now acknowledge that the launch date may be delayed by 6 months. A launch delay would increase the time that NOAA is without an on-orbit backup satellite. It would also increase the potential for a gap in GOES satellite coverage should one of the two operational satellites (GOES-14 or -15) fail prematurely - a scenario given a 36 percent likelihood of occurring by an independent review team.
While the GOES-R program has established a process for managing requirements changes, it has not effectively involved key satellite data users. Since 2007, the GOES-R program decided not to develop 31 of the original set of GOES products and modified specifications on 20 remaining products. For example, NOAA decreased the accuracy requirement for the hurricane intensity product and decreased the timeliness of the lightning detection product. However, key satellite data users were not fully informed about changes and did not have a chance to communicate their concerns about the impact of these changes on their operations. Until NOAA improves its communication with external satellite data users, obtains input from the users, and addresses user concerns when considering product changes, its changes could cause an unexpected impact on critical user operations.
NOAA has established contingency plans for the loss of its GOES satellites and ground systems that are generally in accordance with best practices; however, these plans are missing key elements. For example, NOAA did not work with the user community to address potential reductions in capability under contingency scenarios or identify alternative solutions for preventing a delay in the GOES-R launch date. Until NOAA addresses the shortfalls in its contingency plans and procedures, the plans may not work as intended in an emergency and satellite data users may not obtain the information they need to perform their missions.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is recommending that NOAA address weaknesses in managing reserves and scheduling, improve communications with satellite data users, and address shortfalls in contingency planning. NOAA concurred with GAO's recommendations and identified steps it is taking to implement them.