	Missile Defense Agency Actions Taken or Planned to Address DOT&E Recommendations

The August 2000 DOT&E report summarized the progress, up to that date,  of the National Missile Defense program and the adequacy of testing in the  context of a deployment decision. A detailed  assessment indicating whether actions have been initiated by MDA and  what their timing is relative to the September 2004 initial defensive  capability date can be found in our June 2003 classified report on this  subject. Operational Realism

The recommendations on operational realism reflect limitations of the  current test range. DOT&E called for  an expansion of engagement conditions and suggested adding more  intercept regions and launch locations to achieve new intercept  geometries, higher closing velocities, and longer ranges flown by the  interceptor during flight testing. By September 2004,  one of the five new intercept regions, north of Reagan Test Site, will have  been exercised. DOT&E’S Recommendations on Ground Testing

The 13 ground testing recommendations formulated by DOT&E in its  August 2000 report are focused concerns encompassing four areas:  (1) realistic testing of kill vehicle functions in a Hardware-in-the-Loop  (HWIL) facility, (2) ground-based lethality testing, (3) development of the  system-level simulation known as the Lead System Integrator Integration  Distributed Simulation (LIDS), and (4) Operations in a Nuclear  Environment (OPINE) testing of kill vehicle components. In general,  DOT&E’s recommendations on ground testing are not being addressed. Although an initial test capability had been  planned for the 2004 time frame, testing at the Arnold Engineering facility  has been deferred beyond Block 2004 based on Test Bed funding  constraints. MDA has not yet scheduled “pop quiz” testing in relation to  kill vehicle’s capability to perform target discrimination. MDA initiated and continues to fund analysis programs for investigating  promising technical concepts to improve its capabilities against enemy  countermeasures. On December 16, 2002, the President directed DOD to begin fielding the  first increment of the multi-element ballistic missile defense system in  2004. MDA cannot at this time  formulate a credible assessment of system-level effectiveness, because  critical components like the Cobra Dane radar and interceptor boosters  have yet to be developed and tested in a flight test environment, and no  initial defensive capability is available for a system-level demonstration  and evaluation. The capabilities of the Cobra Dane radar will not be  demonstrated in flight testing before September 2004. However, interceptors will not be launched out of Fort Greeley in  IFT-14 and IFT-15 (the remaining integrated flight tests to be conducted  before September 2004). II for a reprinted version of DOD’s  comments.)
Why GAO Did This Study

In August 2000, the Defense Department's (DOD) Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E), made 50 recommendations on a test program for a system to defeat long-range ballistic missile threats against the United States. DOD's Missile Defense Agency (MDA) plans to begin fielding the system by September 2004. GAO examined (1) how MDA addressed DOT&E's recommendations and (2) what is known about the effectiveness of the system to be fielded by September 2004. GAO issued a classified report on this subject in June 2003. This unclassified, updated version reflects changes in MDA's test schedule.

What GAO Found

MDA is addressing most of DOT&E's recommendations on flight testing but will not complete many actions before September 2004. For example, DOT&E recommended removing flight test range limitations by adding more intercept regions and launch locations to add greater realism to its tests. MDA is expanding the test range infrastructure to add five intercept regions and target and interceptor launches out of new locations. By September 2004, one of the regions will be tested. MDA is generally not addressing DOT&E's proposals on ground testing. For example, although MDA had begun upgrading a ground facility to provide a realistic testing environment for the interceptor, MDA deferred testing at the facility to fund other priorities. Finally, MDA is addressing DOT&E's recommendations on discrimination--the system's ability to find an enemy warhead among decoys--by funding analysis programs. Predictions of how well the system will defeat long-range ballistic missiles are based on limited data. No component of the system to be fielded by September 2004 has been flight-tested in its deployed configuration. Significant uncertainties surround the capability to be fielded by September: MDA will not demonstrate in flight tests a critical radar called Cobra Dane before that date or conduct a system-level demonstration, and has yet to test its three-stage boosters as part of a planned intercept.