	The Bureau Has Made Significant Progress Preparing for the 2010 Census

The Bureau has made significant progress redesigning its approach for  conducting the 2010 Census, including early planning, a greater reliance on  contractors, and actions related to nonresponse follow-up, a key cost  driver. Specifically, the Bureau’s preparations for the 2010 Census appear  to be further along than at a similar point during the planning cycle for the  2000 Census. Bureau Will Make Extensive Use of Contractors for 2010 Census

For the 2010 Census the Bureau plans to make the most extensive use of  contractors in its history, turning to the private sector to supply a number  of different mission-critical functions, including nationwide data collection  and processing activities, and improvements to the address file and maps. The Bureau estimates that of the $11.3 billion total cost of the census,  around $1.9 billion (or 17 percent) will be spent for its seven largest  contracts. Closely monitoring these major contracts will be important. The Bureau has agreed to take steps to mitigate some of these  challenges, such as enhancing the ability of key contract project offices to  better manage contracts through such actions as developing action plans  with milestones for key activities and regularly briefing senior managers. Bureau Has Taken Steps to Reduce Nonresponse Follow-up Costs, but Challenges with Technology Remain

Since 2000, the Bureau has reengineered the decennial census and has  begun to implement new initiatives to reduce the cost of nonresponse  follow-up, including a short-form-only census and automation, the key  feature of which is the use of hand-held mobile computing devices (MCD). However, the MCDs experienced significant reliability problems during the  2004 and 2006 census tests. However, the new MCD will not be operationally tested until the 2008  Dress Rehearsal, and if problems do emerge, little time will be left to  develop, test, and incorporate refinements. If after the 2008 Dress Rehearsal the MCD is found not  to be reliable, the Bureau could be faced with a remote but daunting  possibility of having to revert to the costly, paper-based census used in  2000. Bureau Does Not Have Sufficient Planning and Cost Documentation for the 2010 Census

Despite its emphasis on cost containment, the Bureau does not have a  comprehensive, integrated project plan that details milestones and  itemized costs for completing key activities for the 2010 Census, and its  $11.3 billion life-cycle cost estimate for the 2010 Census lacks timely and  complete supporting data. The supporting data of the estimate are not  timely because they do not include the most current information from  testing and evaluation, and the estimate is not complete because it does  not provide sufficient information on how changing assumptions could  affect cost. Absent this information, we are unable to determine the affect  proposed budget reductions will have in 2007, as well as the impact of  those reductions on the overall design and the Bureau’s 2010 life-cycle  cost estimate. As previously  noted, the Bureau now estimates the 2010 Census will cost over $11.3  billion, making it the most expensive in history, even after adjusting for  inflation. For example, one key  assumption that has not been updated pertains to the use of a new  technology—new hand-held, GPS-enabled MCDs. The Bureau anticipated that the use of MCDs would facilitate reductions in  administrative and support costs in the Bureau’s field offices, including a  50 percent reduction in clerical and administrative local census office staff  costs and a 50 percent reduction in space at each local census office. Specifically, Bureau evaluations of the 2004 test show that more  help desk staff at the local census office were needed to support the use of  the MCD, and additional storage space was needed for the devices. In  our view, revising cost estimates on the most recent information— including test results that are pertinent to cost assumptions—can assist  the Bureau and external decision makers to oversee costs and make  necessary resource allocations to help ensure a successful, cost-effective  census. We also stated that updates of the life-cycle cost could be  timelier—previously the life-cycle cost estimate had been provided at 2- year intervals. Conclusions

Questions have been raised about the impact of proposed reductions in  the Bureau’s fiscal year 2007 overall budget request.
Why GAO Did This Study

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates that the 2010 Census will cost over $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive in our history. The U.S. House of Representatives and Senate appropriation bills propose to reduce the Bureau's fiscal year 2007 budget request, raising questions about the Bureau's design of the 2010 Census and associated costs. Based on issued GAO work, this testimony addresses the extent to which the Bureau has (1) made progress redesigning its approach, including nonresponse follow-up, a key cost driver; and (2) developed a comprehensive project plan for the 2010 Census, as well as timely, detailed cost data for effective oversight and cost control.

What GAO Found

Since 2000, the Bureau has made significant progress in redesigning the 2010 Census. Preparations for the 2010 Census appear to be further along than at a similar point of the 2000 Census; the Bureau plans to make the most extensive use of contractors in its history to implement such mission-critical tasks as data collection and processing, and updating addresses and maps; and it has developed new initiatives, such as changing to a short-form-only census and automating field operations to reduce nonresponse follow-up costs. Still, the Bureau will have to resolve challenges that could increase the costs of the census. For example, the Bureau will need to effectively monitor contracts, as $1.9 billion of the $11.3 billion life-cycle costs will be spent on seven major contracts. The Bureau has agreed to take steps to mitigate some of these challenges, such as enhancing the ability of key contract project offices to better manage contracts through such actions as developing action plans with milestones for key activities and regularly briefing senior managers. Also, the use of hand-held mobile computing devices (MCD) to help reduce nonresponse follow-up costs by automating operations and managing the agency's payroll is a key component of the redesigned census. However, the MCDs experienced reliability problems during testing. The Bureau maintains that those problems will be fixed by developing a new MCD through a contract awarded in March 2006; however, the new MCD will not be tested until the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, and little time will remain to develop, test, and incorporate refinements if the MCDs do not perform as expected. If after the Dress Rehearsal the MCD is found to be unreliable, the Bureau could be faced with the remote but daunting possibility of having to revert to the costly paper-based census used in 2000. The Bureau has not developed and provided a comprehensive, integrated project plan that details milestones, itemized costs, and measurable goals for completing key activities. Also, the Bureau's $11.3 billion life-cycle cost estimate lacks timely and complete supporting data, because it does not contain the most current information from testing and evaluation nor does it provide sufficient information on how changing assumptions could affect costs. For example, one key assumption that has not been updated pertains to the use of the MCDs. The Bureau anticipates that their use could reduce administrative and support costs in its local census offices, including 50 percent cost reductions for staff and office space. However, the 2004 Census Test showed that more help desk staff and more storage space would be needed to support the devices. The Bureau did not change the life-cycle cost estimate because, in the view of Bureau managers, field tests are for operational purposes, not to inform cost estimates. However, using test results to update cost assumptions could assist the Bureau and external policymakers to oversee costs and make necessary resource allocations. Furthermore, absent a comprehensive plan and updated cost information, the effect of proposed 2007 budget reductions on the overall design and life-cycle costs of the 2010 Census cannot be determined.