This report emphasizes the role of missiles in SouthAsian security because of their potential use as delivery vehicles for nuclear weapons. 1172, which condemned the two countries' nuclear testsof May 1998. In 2003, and forperhaps the first period in history, the United States simultaneously enjoys positive relations withboth countries. The key issues for Congress addressed here are whether missile proliferation in South Asia enhances or detracts from regional stability and the role of U.S. policy in promoting such stability,as well as in tension reduction and nonproliferation. Levels of U.S. foreign assistance to India andPakistan, the establishment of aid restrictions, the transfer of conventional weapons platforms(possibly including missile defense systems), the setting of export control parameters andnonproliferation goals, and the maintenance of policy and intelligence oversight of U.S. relationswith India and Pakistan all have a vital congressional facet. Regional Conflict and the U.S. Role

Understanding present-day missile proliferation in South Asia and relevant U.S. policy optionsis aided by a review of the historical setting. (12)
A persistent and oftentimes perplexing aspect of U.S. engagement in the region has been the difficulty of maintaining a more-or-less balanced approach toward two antagonistic countries whilesimultaneously promoting perceived U.S. interests in South Asia. Bilateral Security Dynamics

		Debate Over a Regional Nuclear Weapons and Missile Race

Central to an analysis of the meaning of missile proliferation in South Asia are two key questions: First, is a strategic arms race between India and Pakistan underway? Both countries also continue development of long-range nuclear-capable ballisticmissiles, and plan to field cruise missiles with a land-attackcapability. Both India and Pakistan have claimed to be seeking only the nuclear weapons needed for minimum credible deterrence (MCD). (46)
While not a weapon or delivery system, India's satellites contribute to its strategic capabilities. Command and Control. The Pakistani Approach to Missile Defense

With the waiver of the Pressler Amendment because of Pakistan's support for the United States in its war on terrorism, the Indian press has reported that Pakistan has initiated negotiations with theUnited States to purchase a ballistic missile defense system. Key Issues and Options for Congress

		Nonproliferation

MTCR-Related Issues. Of critical concern to both Congress and the Administration is a suspected Pakistan-North Korean proliferationrelationship. After September 2001, these concerns became acute. The overt nuclearpostures of India and Pakistan, and U.S.-led antiterrorism efforts centered on Southwest Asia havemade the region's security dynamics a matter of great concern for the United States, wheregovernment officials acknowledge that a stable and thriving South Asia would advance U.S.interests. Foreign Involvement in Pakistan's Missile Program.
This report analyzes the policy implications of missile proliferation in South Asia, providing information on India's and Pakistan's missile programs and their role in regional security. Thereport also provides background on the India-Pakistan conflict and the U.S. role, and reviews theregion's strategic security dynamics. The report concludes with a review of key issues and optionsfor U.S. policy.
The United States has long been concerned about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and their delivery systems in South Asia. This concern became acute after May 1998, when both India andPakistan tested nuclear explosive devices. Since that time, both countries have continued testingnuclear-capable ballistic missiles, and both have established command and control authorities tooversee their nuclear arsenals. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947 and havesignificant unsettled territorial disputes. Although the status of weaponization is unclear, aslow-speed arms race appears to be underway on the Asian Subcontinent, and the proliferation ofmissile capabilities in South Asia has been identified as a potentially major threat to regional stabilityand to key U.S. foreign policy goals.
A persistent aspect of U.S. engagement in the region has been the difficulty of maintaining a balanced approach toward two antagonistic countries while simultaneously promoting perceived U.S.interests. During the 1990s, U.S. security policy toward South Asia focused on preventing weaponsproliferation, but the Bush Administration shifted to a more "pragmatic" approach emphasizing"restraint" in this area. For perhaps the first period in history the United States currently enjoyssimultaneously positive relations with both countries.
While relationships between the United States, India, and Pakistan have taken on a positive hue, potential for regional instability persists. The strategic capabilities of India and Pakistan couldprovide a ready catalyst for transforming disputes or terrorist incidents into potentially cataclysmicconfrontations. Both countries also are pursuing the development or acquisition of missile defensesystems. It is unknown at this early stage if missile defenses will offer a degree of stability to theregion or if they will create an imbalance, thus prompting the other country to build more missilesto compensate for the disparity.
Key issues for Congress addressed in this report are the extent to which missile proliferation in South Asia enhances or upsets regional stability and the role of U.S. policy in promoting suchstability, as well as in tension reduction and nonproliferation. Levels of U.S. foreign assistance toIndia and Pakistan, the establishment of aid restrictions, the transfer of conventional weaponsplatforms (possibly including missile defense systems), the setting of export control parameters andnonproliferation goals, and the maintenance of policy and intelligence oversight of U.S. relationswith India and Pakistan constitute additional issues of concern to Congress. This report will beupdated as warranted by events.