Countries’ Progress Toward Meeting the Convention’s Goal Cannot Be Fully Assessed

The incomplete, unreliable, and inconsistent data on emissions prevent a complete assessment of Annex I countries’ efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. All 29 countries reported 1990 data on carbon dioxide, and 28 of the 29 reported similar data on methane and nitrous oxide. However, eight countries did not provide projections to 2000 for at least one of those gases. For example, some Annex I countries adjusted their 1990 inventory levels in order to develop what they believed to be a more reasonable starting point for projections to 2000. Economic Factors Make Most Annex I Countries Unlikely to Meet the Convention’s Goal

Although the currently available emissions data prevent a complete assessment of countries’ progress in meeting the Convention’s goal, projections by energy forecasting agencies of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use—which is the largest single category of greenhouse gas emissions—indicate that few Annex I countries will likely be able to return emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. Of the major developed countries, only Germany and the United Kingdom appear likely to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. III compares in more detail the changes in key economic factors and fuel prices affecting the U.S. efforts.) Reporting guidelines designed to help ensure that complete, reliable, and complete emissions data are provided by countries will also be an essential element of any new agreement. 3. 4. 5. 2. To determine the progress that the United States and other Annex I countries have made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels, we obtained data on each country’s greenhouse gas emissions for 1990 and projections for 2000—from the United Nations Secretariat on the Climate Change Convention and from other groups such as the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO evaluated the United States and other countries' progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by year 2000.

What GAO Found

GAO found that: (1) incomplete, unreliable, and inconsistent data prevent a complete assessment of these countries' efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000; (2) the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has compiled data emissions from 29 countries since February 1996; (3) all 29 countries reported 1990 data on carbon dioxide, 28 countries reported similar data for methane and nitrous oxide, and 8 countries did not provide projections to 2000 for at least one of the gases; (4) the level of uncertainty in emissions data is high since some countries adjusted their 1990 inventory levels to develop more reasonable projections for year 2000; (5) the Convention's reporting guidelines do not specify whether emissions' projections should be reported as gross emissions or net emissions; (6) this lack of detail affects the completeness and comparability of emissions inventories; (7) Germany and the United Kingdom are the only major developed countries that are likely to return to 1990 emissions levels by 2000; (8) energy use is the major factor affecting Annex I countries' ability to meet 1990 greenhouse levels by 2000; (9) efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are hampered by changes in key economic variables; and (10) the adoption of revised reporting guidelines will help to ensure that complete and reliable emissions data are reported.