In 1996, the Air Force launched the Airborne Laser program to develop a defensive system that could destroy enemy missiles from a distance of several hundred kilometers. Original Cost and Schedule Goals Are Based on Inadequate Knowledge

The Air Force launched the Airborne Laser acquisition program and identified cost and schedule goals before officials had the knowledge to make realistic projections. New Strategy Incorporates Some Knowledge-Based Practices, but Additional Practice Would Reduce Program Risk

The Missile Defense Agency’s new strategy for developing the Airborne Laser incorporates some of the knowledge-based practices that characterize successful programs, but the agency would benefit from adopting another that would add greater discipline to its acquisition process. However, the agency has not established decision points with associated knowledge-based criteria for moving forward from (1) technology development to system integration, (2) system integration to system demonstration, and (3) system demonstration to production. Our previous work with successful development programs shows that once the technology is in-hand to meet the customer’s requirements, the developer can make more accurate initial estimates of the cost and time needed to develop and produce an operational system. In addition, product development requires significant investments in facilities and materials. That is, even though the agency might know that it has the technology in-hand to develop a useful military capability, it has not established a first decision point where it would determine the cost and time needed to move the program forward and whether the program should proceed into a system integration phase during which the design would be matured and optimized for reproducibility, maintainability, and reliability. The department stated that Secretary of Defense direction is not needed to implement our recommendations, the Missile Defense Agency’s acquisition process for ballistic missile defense already uses tailored versions of the knowledge-based practices recommended by us, and the agency intends to expand the use of knowledge-based criteria in the future.
What GAO Found

The Air Force launched an acquisition program to develop and produce a revolutionary laser weapon system, known as the Airborne Laser, in 1996. Being developed for installation in a modified Boeing 747 aircraft, it is intended to destroy enemy ballistic missiles almost immediately after their launch. The Air Force originally estimated development costs at $2.5 billion and projected fielding of the system in 2006. However, by August 2001, the Air Force determined that the development cost estimate rose 50 percent to $3.7 billion, and the fielding date slipped to 2010. The Department of Defense transferred responsibility for the Airborne Laser in October 2001 to the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization. Subsequently, the Defense Secretary designated the Ballistic Missile Defense Organization as the Missile Defense Agency and granted the agency expanded responsibility and authority. The Air Force was unable to meet the Airborne Laser's original cost and schedule goals because it did not fully understand the level of effort that would be required to develop the critical system technology needed to meet the user's requirements. The Missile Defense Agency's new strategy for developing the Airborne Laser incorporates some knowledge-based practices that characterize successful programs. However, the agency has not established knowledge-based decision points and associated criteria for moving forward from technology development to product development and on to production. Without decision points and criteria, the agency risks beginning new and more costly activities before it has the knowledge to determine the money and time required to complete them and whether additional investment in those activities is warranted.