For example, agencies serving  populations of more than 150,000 persons contributed about 58 percent of  all violent crimes reported to the UCR during this time period while  receiving about half of all COPS funds. From 1994 through  2001, a total of about 10,300 agencies spent COPS funds. This contribution varied by year. For example, for 1997 we estimate that COPS funds  contributed about 14,000 additional officers in that year—or about 2.4  percent of the total number of sworn officers nationwide—and for 2000,  COPS funds contributed about 17,000 additional officers—or about 3  percent of the total number of sworn officers nationwide. For example, the 2.4 percent increase in  sworn officers due to COPS expenditures in 1997 was responsible for  about a 1.1 percent decline in the total index crime rate from 1993 to 1997,  while the roughly 3 percent increase in officers due to COPS expenditures  in 2000 was responsible for about 1.3 percent decline in the total index  crime rate from 1993 to 2000. According to our review studies of the effectiveness of  policing practices, problem-solving and place-oriented practices are  among those that the crime literature indicates may be effective in  reducing crime. In its written comments, the Office of Community  Oriented Policing Services (COPS) drew upon information from both this  report and our prior correspondence on the effects of COPS grants on  crime. They said that we were careful and diligent in our research, and  that our findings support conclusions reached by others and correspond  with what local law enforcement leaders report. COPS and Other Local Law Enforcement Grants Distributed throughout the 1990s

According to our analysis of Office of Justice Programs data, from 1994  through 2001, the COPS Office distributed more than $7.6 billion in grants. Specifically, it covers (1) the amount of  COPS obligations between 1994 and 2001, (2) the distribution of grant  funds to larger and smaller agencies relative to total index and violent  crimes, (3) the number of agencies in our sample that received COPS  grants, (4) the amounts of COPS expenditures, and (5) the amount of these  expenditures relative to total local law enforcement expenditures. COPS Expenditures Led to Increases in Sworn Officers above Levels That Would Have Been Expected without Them and Were Responsible for about 88,000 Officer- Years

We found that COPS hiring grants were significantly related to increases in  sworn officers above levels that would have been expected without the  expenditures, after controlling for economic conditions in the counties in  which agencies were located, population composition, and preexisting  trends in agencies in the growth rate of sworn officers. COPS Expenditures Led to Reductions in Crime through Increases in Officers

Estimating the impact of COPS expenditures on changes in crime rates  through their effects on the number of sworn officers, we found that COPS  expenditures were associated with declines in crime rates for total,  violent, and property crimes, as compared with their baseline levels in  1993, the year prior to the distribution of COPS grants. For 1999  and 2000, COPS expenditures led to about a reduction of about 2.4 percent  in violent crime, from the 1993 level. In addition, through the use of state-by- year fixed effects, we controlled for state-level factors that could affect  crime rates, such as changes in sentencing policy or state incarceration. Factors other than COPS Expenditures Contributed Larger Amounts to the Reduction in Crimes, but COPS Contribution Was in Line with COPS Expenditures

The decline in crimes attributable to COPS expenditures accounted for at  most about 10 percent of the total drop in crime from 1993 to 1998, and  about 5 percent of the drop from 1993 to 2000. From 1994 through 2001, COPS expenditures  amounted to slightly more than 1 percent of total local expenditures for  police services nationwide. Although we observed larger average increases in reported policing  practices among agencies that spent COPS grant funds than among  agencies that did not spend COPS grant funds, when we controlled for  underlying trends in the reported adoption of policing practices and  agency characteristics, we found that changes in per capita COPS  expenditures made between the period preceding wave 1 of the survey  (1994 through 1996) and the period following wave 1 of the survey (1997  through 2000) were not associated with changes in reported overall  policing practices between 1996 and 2000 (app. Appendix VI: Methods Used to Estimate the Effects of COPS Funds on Officers and Crime

In this appendix, we describe the methods we used to address our  reporting objective regarding the impacts of the COPS funds on officers  and crime: determining (1) the extent to which COPS grant expenditures  contributed to increases in the number of sworn officers in police agencies  in the 1990s and (2) the extent to which COPS expenditures contributed to  declines in crime in the 1990s through their effects, if any, on officers. The Research Literature Shows That Some Policing Practices May be Effective in Reducing Crime

Our analysis of six systematic reviews of evaluations of the effectiveness  of various policing practices in preventing crime indicates that the current  evidence ranges from moderate to strong that problem-oriented policing  practices and place-oriented practices are either effective or promising as  strategies for addressing crime problems.
Why GAO Did This Study

Between 1994 and 2001, the Office of Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) provided more than $7.6 billion in grants to state and local communities to hire police officers and promote community policing as an effective strategy to prevent crime. Studies of the impact of the grants on crime have been inconclusive. GAO was asked to evaluate the effect of the COPS program on the decline in crime during the 1990s. GAO developed and analyzed a database containing annual observations on crime, police officers, COPS funds, and other factors related to crime, covering years prior to and during the COPS program, or from 1990 through 2001. GAO analyzed survey data on policing practices that agencies reportedly implemented and reviewed studies of policing practices. GAO assessed: (1) how COPS obligations were distributed and how much was spent; (2) the extent to which COPS expenditures contributed to increases in the number of police officers and declines in crime nationwide; and (3) the extent to which COPS grants during the 1990s were associated with policing practices that crime literature indicates could be effective. In commenting on a draft of this report, the COPS Office said that our findings are important and support conclusions reached by others.

What GAO Found

About half of the COPS funds distributed from 1994 through 2001 went to law enforcement agencies in localities of fewer than 150,000 persons and the remainder to agencies in larger communities. This distribution roughly corresponded to the distribution of major property crimes but less so to the distribution of violent crimes. For example, agencies in larger communities received about 47 percent of COPS funds but accounted for 58 percent of the violent crimes nationwide. From 1994 through 2001, COPS expenditures constituted about 1 percent of total local expenditures for police services. For the years 1994 through 2001, expenditures of COPS grants by grant recipients resulted in varying amounts of additional officers above the levels that would have been expected without the expenditures. For example, during 2000, the peak year of COPS expenditures by grant recipients, they led to an increase of about 3 percent in the level of sworn officers--or about 17,000 officers. Adding up the number of additional officers in each year from 1994 through 2001, GAO estimated that COPS expenditures yielded about 88,000 additional officer-years. GAO obtained its results from fixed-effects regression models that controlled for pre-1994 trends in the growth rate of officers, other federal expenditures, and local- and state-level factors that could affect officer levels. From its analysis of the effects of increases in officers on declines in crime, GAO estimated that COPS funds contributed to declines in the crime rate that, while modest in size, varied over time and among categories of crime. For example, between 1993 and 2000, COPS funds contributed to a 1.3 percent decline in the overall crime rate and a 2.5 percent decline in the violent crime rate from the 1993 levels. The effects of COPS funds on crime held when GAO controlled for other crime-related factors--such as local economic conditions and state-level policy changes--in its regression models, and the effects were commensurate with COPS funds' contribution to local spending on police protection. Factors other than COPS funds accounted for the majority of the decline in crime during this period. For example, between 1993 and 2000, the overall crime rate declined by 26 percent, and the 1.3 percent decline due to COPS, amounted to about 5 percent of the overall decline. Similarly, COPS contributed about 7 percent of the 32 percent decline in violent crime from 1993 to 2000. From 1993 though 1997, agencies that received and spent COPS grants reported larger changes in policing practices and in the subsets of practices that focus on solving crime problems or focus on places where crime is concentrated than did agencies that did not receive the grants. The differences held after GAO controlled for underlying trends in the reported use of these policing practices. From 1996 to 2000, there was no overall increase in policing practices associated with COPS grants. In its review of studies on policing practices, GAO found that problem-solving and place-oriented practices can be effective in reducing crime.