Commerce reported that between 1994 and 2005, an annual average of 95,000 new systems analysts, computer scientists and engineers, and computer programmers will be required to satisfy the increasing demand for IT workers and that only 24,553 students earned bachelor’s degrees in computer and information sciences in 1994. Because there is a disparity between these two numbers, Commerce concluded that it will be difficult to meet the demand for IT workers. We agree with Commerce’s conclusion that more information and data are needed about the current and future IT labor market. Commerce also took issue with our characterization of the report title (America’s New Deficit: The Shortage of Information Technology Workers) and statements in the introduction as reflecting Commerce’s conclusion that there is a shortage of IT workers. The Acting Under Secretary said that the report does not conclude that a shortage of IT workers exists. Regarding Commerce’s first point, our correspondence explains that the stated purpose of Commerce’s report was to explore the possibility of a shortage of IT workers in the United States; we did not characterize the report as a definitive analysis of the labor market for IT workers. Finally, we believe the report’s title and the statements about the magnitude of the IT worker supply and demand imbalance contained in the report’s introduction could reasonably be interpreted as reflecting a conclusion that there is an IT worker shortage. As this correspondence states, the Commerce report appears to appropriately establish that the demand for IT workers is expected to grow, but it did not adequately describe the likely supply of IT workers. For that reason, we agreed with the Department’s conclusion that more needs to be known about the demand and supply of IT workers.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO provided information on the Department of Commerce's analysis of the information technology (IT) labor market, focusing on: (1) Commerce's analysis of IT worker supply and demand; and (2) the basis for its conclusion that a shortage of IT workers exists in the United States.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) Commerce's report has serious analytical and methodological weaknesses that undermine the credibility of its conclusion that a shortage of IT workers exists; (2) however, the lack of support presented in this one report should not necessarily lead to a conclusion that there is no shortage; (3) instead, as the Commerce report states, additional information and data are needed to more accurately characterize the IT labor market now and in the future; (4) the report appears to appropriately establish that the demand for IT workers is expected to grow, but it does not adequately describe the likely supply of IT workers; (5) although Commerce reported that only 24,553 U.S. students earned bachelor's degrees in computer and information sciences in 1994, Commerce also stated that the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects increasing job growth--an annual average of 95,000 new computer programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists and engineers will be required to satisfy the increasing demand for IT workers between 1994 and 2005; (6) pointing to the disparity between these two numbers and referring to evidence from other sources, Commerce concludes in the report's title and introduction that there is a shortage of IT workers; (7) Commerce did not, however, consider other likely sources of workers, such as college graduates with degrees in other areas; and (8) as a result, rather than supporting its conclusion that a shortage of IT workers exists, the data and analysis support the report's observation that more needs to be known about the supply and demand for IT workers.