This report analyzes the threat to U.S. security posed by the Al Qaeda organization. Cells and associates have been located in over 70 countries, according to U.S. officials. Although U.S. officials say that the post-September 11 struggle against Al Qaeda uses all aspects of U.S. national power (legal, economic, diplomatic, as well as military), a cornerstone of the post-September 11 U.S. effort has been the military effort in Afghanistan. Many believe that the weakening of central direction renders Al Qaeda less able to conduct catastrophic attacks inside the United States because its diffusion limits its ability to orchestrate complicated, coordinated plots similar to the September 11, 2001 attacks. According to this view, bin Laden and Zawahiri are far less operationally relevant than they were at the time of September 11 and U.S. and allied counter-terrorist efforts might be better spent on countering the ideology that is promoted by Al Qaeda. Emerging Al Qaeda Presence in Africa and Europe

Depending on the outcome of investigations, some of the bombings and attempted bombings of the London transportation system in July 2005 might support the belief in the Administration and among some outside experts that there is a growing Al Qaeda presence in East Africa. A claim of responsibility for the July 7 attacks came from a previously little known group called "The Secret Organization of Al Qaeda in Europe," a name that suggest some linkage to or affinity with Al Qaeda. Conclusion

The assessment of the degree and character of the threat posed by the Al Qaeda organization might suggest strategies for combating it. On the other hand, some who believe that Al Qaeda remains central to the Islamist terrorism threat might tend to recommend policies that focus on finding, combating, and arresting Al Qaeda leaders and operatives that are still at large. Many believe that, no matter the structure and capabilities of Al Qaeda, stabilizing Iraq will likely be crucial to reducing the recruitment of militants willing to conduct acts of terrorism against the United States and its allies. Others believe that the Al Qaeda and global Islamic terrorist threat is difficult to assess, no matter how much intelligence is shared and gathered, and that combating Al Qaeda and its affiliates abroad could have only partial success.
There is no consensus among experts in and outside the U.S. government about the magnitude of the threat to U.S. national interests posed by the Al Qaeda organization. Virtually all experts agree that Al Qaeda and its sympathizers retain the intention to conduct major attacks in the United States, against U.S. interests abroad, and against Western countries.
In assessing capabilities, many believe that the Al Qaeda organization and its leadership are no longer as relevant to assessing the global Islamic terrorist threat as they were on September 11, 2001. Some believe U.S. and allied counter efforts have weakened Al Qaeda's central leadership structure and capabilities to the point where Al Qaeda serves more as inspiration than as an actual terrorism planning and execution hub. According to this view, the threat from Al Qaeda has been replaced by a threat from a number of loosely affiliated cells and groups that subscribe to Al Qaeda's ideology but have little, if any, contact with remaining Al Qaeda leaders. Those who take this view believe that catastrophic attacks similar to those on September 11, 2001 are unlikely because terrorist operations on that scale require a high degree of coordination.
An alternate view is that the remaining Al Qaeda leadership remains in contact with, and possibly even in control of numerous Islamic militant cells and groups that continue to commit acts of terrorism, such as the July 7, 2005 bombings of the London underground transportation system. According to those who subscribe to this view, Al Qaeda as an organization has not been weakened to the degree that some Administration officials assert, and the global effort against Islamic terrorism would benefit significantly from finding and capturing Al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden and his top associate, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Subscribers to this view believe that a coordinated attack on the scale of September 11 should not be ruled out because the remaining Al Qaeda structure is sufficiently well-organized to conduct an effort of that magnitude.
This paper will focus on the Al Qaeda organization and its major affiliates, but not the full spectrum of like-minded Islamist cells or groups that might exist. This report will be updated as warranted by developments. See also CRS Report RL32759, Al Qaeda: Statements and Evolving Ideology, by [author name scrubbed].