How NNSA Measures Progress Toward Its Dismantlement Performance Goal May Be Misleading, and NNSA Is Unlikely to Achieve This Goal

How NNSA measures progress toward its performance goal of  dismantling all weapons retired prior to fiscal year 2009 by the end of  fiscal year 2022 is unclear and may make its reported progress  misleading, including its practice of not tracking the actual date of  retirement of individual dismantled weapons and its plans to reinstate to  the stockpile—rather than dismantle—certain weapons retired prior to  fiscal year 2009. Due to the uncertainty on the timing of these retirements  NNSA has not yet scheduled for dismantlement any weapons that may be  removed from the stockpile under New START. In  particular, an NNSA official expressed concern that this gap in  dismantlement workload in the mid-2020s could result in the loss of  certified dismantlement personnel because dismantlement technicians at  Pantex lose their certifications if they have not worked on a weapon type  within the past year. NNSA’s Ability to Significantly Accelerate Dismantlement and Complete Planned Workload Earlier Than Planned Could Be Costly

NNSA officials and Pantex site contractors said that they believe that  significantly accelerating future dismantlement workload—to complete  total planned workload earlier than fiscal year 2022—could be costly and  that it is unclear whether the site would have sufficient capacity to do so. Disassembly and Disposition of Some Nuclear and Nonnuclear Components from Dismantled Weapons Is Complicated by Policy and Technical Challenges

We identified several policy and technical challenges affecting NNSA’s  disassembly and disposition of nuclear and nonnuclear components from  dismantled nuclear weapons. Third, NNSA is storing millions of nonnuclear components from  dismantled weapons at Pantex in a contingency inventory that may  exceed future weapons needs, and the agency’s ability to effectively  manage this inventory is complicated by decisions to retain many  components for potential reuse in weapons and by limitations in Pantex’s  previous component inventory management system. However, efforts to address the  need to retain older parts and upgrade Pantex’s component inventory  management system are already under way. However, NNSA’s decision to retain many CSAs has reduced the number  of CSAs available for disassembly at Y-12, which poses significant  challenges to Y-12’s ability to plan its disassembly workload. However, NNSA’s ability to effectively manage and evaluate the  retention of some parts in this inventory is complicated by decisions to  retain many components for potential reuse in weapons, including old  parts from weapons no longer in the stockpile, and by limitations in  Pantex’s previous component inventory management system. By relaxing and extending the fiscal  year 2022 dismantlement performance goal deadline, NNSA could give  itself flexibility to account for the uncertainties associated with weapons in  managed retirement and could allow the dismantlement workload to be  leveled and extended through the mid-2020s to sustain the  dismantlement workforce. Because the dismantlement performance goal as  written does not make these practices clear, NNSA risks providing  misleading or confusing information about the age or types of weapons  being dismantled. In its comments, NNSA generally agreed with our two recommendations  that it (1) reevaluate and consider extending the fiscal year 2022  dismantlement performance goal, to account for the uncertainties when  weapons currently in managed retirement will be released for  dismantlement, and to avoid a potential dismantlement workload gap due  to the deferred retirement of large numbers of additional weapons  following entry into force of the New START treaty and (2) revise the  dismantlement performance goal to clarify that NNSA intends to  dismantle all weapons retired prior to fiscal year 2009, or an equivalent  number of weapons, by the end of fiscal year 2022 or an updated  deadline. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to assess (1) the extent to which the annual  inventories of weapons awaiting dismantlement and the National Nuclear  Security Administration’s (NNSA) annual dismantlement rates have  changed over time, and, if so, the reasons why; (2) how NNSA measures  progress toward achieving its performance goal of dismantling all  weapons retired prior to fiscal year 2009 by the end of fiscal year 2022,  and any challenges it might face in meeting the goal; (3) NNSA’s  schedule for dismantlement of weapons retired as a result of the New  Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and the challenges, if  any, NNSA faces in dismantling those weapons; (4) the physical capacity  available at Pantex to meet NNSA’s planned future dismantlement  workload and to potentially accelerate dismantlement; and (5) the  challenges, if any, affecting disassembly and disposition of components  from dismantled weapons.
Why GAO Did This Study

NNSA is responsible for the nation's nuclear weapons programs. As part of this mission, it oversees dismantlement of retired nuclear weapons and disposition of their components. Dismantlement occurs at NNSA's Pantex Plant, and disassembly of CSAs from dismantled weapons occurs at the Y-12 site. GAO was asked to assess NNSA's weapons dismantlement and component disposition efforts.
This report examines, among other things, (1) how NNSA measures progress toward its fiscal year 2022 dismantlement performance goal, as well as any challenges it might face in achieving the goal; (2) the schedule for and any challenges in dismantling weapons to be retired as a result of the New START treaty; (3) physical capacity available at Pantex to meet or accelerate planned dismantlement workload; and (4) any challenges in disassembling and disposing of weapon components. GAO analyzed NNSA's future dismantlement schedule, observed weapons dismantlement and component disposition activities at Pantex and Y-12, and interviewed NNSA officials. This report summarizes the findings of GAO's classified report on nuclear weapons dismantlement.

What GAO Found

How the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) measures progress toward its performance goal of dismantling all weapons retired prior to fiscal year 2009 by the end of fiscal year 2022 is unclear for two reasons. First, NNSA does not track the actual date that dismantled weapons were retired and may be counting some dismantled weapons retired after fiscal year 2009 as equivalent to weapons retired prior to fiscal year 2009. Second, NNSA will not dismantle some weapons retired prior to fiscal year 2009 but will reinstate them to the stockpile to save on rebuilding other weapons and count the reinstated weapons as equivalent dismantlements. Having clear goals and measures is a key element of program management. Because the dismantlement performance goal does not make these practices clear, NNSA risks providing misleading information about progress related to its goal.
NNSA has a schedule for future weapon dismantlements but has not scheduled for dismantlement any weapons to be removed from the stockpile resulting from implementation of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). These weapons are not expected to be retired until the late 2020s or early 2030s. The deferred retirement of these weapons could result in a significant dismantlement workload gap during the mid-2020s. Such a gap could result in the loss of certified dismantlement personnel because dismantlement technicians at Pantex lose their certifications if they have not worked on a weapon type in the past year. By extending the fiscal year 2022 dismantlement performance goal, NNSA could allow the current dismantlement workload to be leveled and extended through the mid-2020s to sustain its dismantlement workforce.
The physical capacity at the Pantex Plant in Texas should be sufficient to meet NNSA's planned dismantlement workload and other stockpile commitments through fiscal year 2022. According to NNSA officials and Pantex site contractors, the site's ability to significantly accelerate its dismantlement rates and complete planned workload earlier than fiscal year 2022 could be costly, and it is unclear whether the site would have sufficient capacity to do so.
GAO identified policy and technical challenges complicating NNSA's disassembly and disposition of nuclear and nonnuclear components from dismantled nuclear weapons. For instance, the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee disassembles canned subassemblies (CSA)—a major nuclear component that can contain highly enriched uranium (HEU), which is uranium enriched in the isotope uranium-235 to 20 percent or greater. NNSA is retaining many CSAs, leaving far fewer of them for disassembly, and creating challenges for Y-12's ability to plan its disassembly workload. However, NNSA bases its retention decisions on national security considerations and not Y-12 workload. Moreover, NNSA's ability to effectively manage a contingency inventory of millions of nonnuclear components at Pantex is complicated by decisions to retain many components for potential reuse in weapons, including old parts for weapons no longer in the stockpile, and by limitations in Pantex's previous component inventory management system. GAO is not making a recommendation on these matters because of efforts already under way at Pantex to address the need to retain older parts and to upgrade its component inventory management system.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that NNSA (1) clarify the dismantlement performance goal and (2) consider extending the goal to avoid a dismantlement workload gap. NNSA generally agreed with these recommendations.