	Background

Patriot is a mobile Army surface-to-air missile system designed to counter  tactical ballistic missiles; cruise missiles; and other threats such as  airplanes, helicopters, and unmanned aerial vehicles. The Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) program is currently  developing the IAMD Battle Command System (IBCS) that plans to  connect Patriot radars and launchers into IBCS’s central network and  command and control stations. Multibillion Dollar Upgrade Strategy Awaits Key Testing Results to Determine the Extent to Which Upgrades Address Capability Needs or Require Additional Development

To address a diverse set of capability needs to mitigate evolving threats,  the Army is planning to field a number of upgrades, as well as a long-term  radar solution, projected to cost $2.9 billion through fiscal year 2021 with  additional costs needed for its long-term solutions. Specifically, the Army is  budgeting for three ongoing upgrades to address obsolescence issues,  four near-term hardware upgrades that begin fielding prior to fiscal year  2017, six mid-term upgrades and supporting equipment that will begin  fielding between fiscal years 2017 and 2021, and long-term upgrades— including a long-term radar solution, the details for which are still being  determined. Also key among these upgrades is a major software upgrade  called Post Deployment Build-8 (PDB-8), which, in addition to a second  software upgrade called PDB-8.1, is intended to improve communications  and system capabilities against threats. Costs for PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 software-related tasks are estimated based  on software-related tasks in the budget. In addition, the program did not establish any oversight  mechanisms for the upgrades that were similar to those generally  required of MDAPs. Upcoming Tests of PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 Provide Opportunity to Increase Oversight of Near and Mid-term Upgrades If Further Development Is Needed

While it would not be productive for DOD to go back and track cost or  schedule changes from the start of the Patriot upgrade efforts (see  appendix III), in the event that upcoming operational tests reveal the need  for further development of PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 and other near- and mid- term upgrades tested along with that software, the department will have  an opportunity to provide increased oversight of those upgrades. Of the three  remaining components, the Army has already defined the missile as a  separate major defense acquisition program and currently plans to do the  same for the LTAMD sensor solution, which accounts for $364 million of  the requested $1.8 billion over the next five years. Continuing to  separately manage and track progress for these components should help  provide Congress with the oversight and accountability it needs to make  important investment decisions. Although the Army estimated in 2013 that  costs for Patriot upgrades would meet the threshold to be considered a  major defense acquisition program (MDAP), the Army chose to  incorporate the Patriot upgrade efforts into the existing Patriot program  which made certain oversight mechanisms inapplicable. DOD partially concurred with our recommendations to provide an initial  report—similar to a Selected Acquisition Report—and to provide annual  updates to Congress in an effort to establish oversight mechanisms  commensurate with other major defense acquisition programs for  upgrades operationally tested with PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 in the event that  operational test results reveal performance shortfalls that require  additional development. DOD’s response focuses on tracking and reporting progress on other  MDAPs without clarifying how or if it will track progress on current PDB-8  and PDB-8.1 efforts. To assess the extent to which the Patriot system upgrades will address  capability needs and describe the cost, schedule, and testing plans  associated with those upgrades we did the following:  1. In sum, the Army has spent about $1.1  billion of the $2.9 billion planned between fiscal years 2013 and 2021 to  address Patriot capability needs, as seen in figure 9.
Why GAO Did This Study

Patriot is a mobile Army surface-to-air missile system deployed worldwide to defend critical assets and forces. To respond to emerging threats and address a diverse set of capability needs, the Army has spent nearly $1.1 billion and requested $1.8 billion over the next 5 years to upgrade Patriot, begin developing a long-term radar solution, and integrate Patriot components into a central network and command and control system—the Integrated Air and Missile Defense.
A House report included a provision for GAO to assess, among other things, the status of the Patriot system and the Army's strategy for completing the upgrades. Among other things, this report examines (1) the extent to which the latest upgrades will address Patriot capability needs and (2) the level of oversight and accountability provided for the upgrade efforts. To conduct this review, GAO examined Army and program documents including test plans and schedules. GAO also interviewed Department of Defense (DOD) and other relevant officials.

What GAO Found

While the currently fielded version of the Army's Patriot surface-to-air missile system is an improvement over prior versions, the Army currently plans to spend about $2.9 billion between fiscal years 2013 and 2021 on an upgrade strategy to address a variety of capability needs. These efforts are intended to improve the system's performance, reliability, and communications as well as address obsolescence and sustainment issues. The figure below shows planned costs for ongoing efforts, near-term upgrades which begin fielding prior to fiscal year 2017, mid-term upgrades which begin fielding between fiscal years 2017 and 2021, and long-term upgrades—including a long-term radar solution. Key among the mid-term efforts are major software upgrades called Post Deployment Build-8 (PDB-8) and PDB-8.1, which are intended to improve communications and system capabilities against threats. The Army plans to begin operational testing for PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 in fiscal years 2016 and 2019, respectively. These testing results will reveal the extent to which the near and mid-term upgrades work as intended.
Although the Army estimated in 2013 that costs for Patriot upgrades would meet the threshold to be considered a major defense acquisition program (MDAP), the Army chose to incorporate the Patriot upgrade efforts into the existing Patriot program which made certain oversight mechanisms inapplicable. Further, it decided not to put a mechanism in place to track or report the upgrades' progress against initial cost, schedule, or performance estimates, similar to those generally required of MDAPs, which GAO considers essential for program oversight. Operational testing for PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 provides the Army with an opportunity to increase oversight. If performance shortfalls indicate a need for further development, the Army will have an opportunity to track progress on these upgrades to provide the oversight tools decisionmakers need to make important investment decisions.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense direct the Army to establish oversight mechanisms, similar to those for major defense acquisition programs, if additional development is required for upgrades operationally tested with PDB-8 and PDB-8.1. DOD partially concurred, focusing its response on plans to track other MDAPs, but did not clarify how or if it would track current PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 progress. GAO maintains DOD should provide oversight for any additional PDB-8 and PDB-8.1 development.