Historically, undercounts have plagued the census, although, according to  the Bureau, they have generally diminished since 1940. Three such efforts that I will  highlight in my remarks today are (1) a complete and accurate address list,  (2) an Integrated Communications Campaign to increase awareness and  encourage participation, and (3) special enumeration programs targeted  toward historically undercounted populations. The Bureau develops its address list and maps over the course of the  decade using a series of operations that sometimes overlap to increase the  accuracy of the list of all housing units are included. These operations  include partnerships with the U.S. To help find hidden housing units  it might otherwise miss, listers ask if there is more than one residence at a  particular address, or to look for clues such as an outbuilding or two  mailboxes or utility meters that could indicate additional households. Targeting the Bureau’s communications campaign to hard-to-count  populations will help the Bureau use its resources more effectively. The Bureau developed the Service-Based Enumeration program (SBE) for  the 2000 Census to provide the homeless and others without conventional  housing an opportunity to be included in the census. For example, with respect to address canvassing, the Bureau plans to  provide listers with GPS-equipped handheld computers (HHC) to verify  and correct addresses. Consequently, the performance of the HHCs is  critical to the accurate, timely, and cost-effective completion of address  canvassing. The Integrated Communications Campaign faces its own set of challenges,  chief among which is the long-standing issue of converting awareness of  the census to an actual response. Potential Impact of Undercounts on Federal Funding

Our past work indicates that the accuracy of state and local population  estimates may have an effect, though modest, on the allocation of grant  funds among the states. Many of the formulas used to allocate grant funds  rely upon measures of population, often in combination with other factors. In our June 2006 report, we analyzed the sensitivity of Social Services  Block Grants (SSBG) to alternative population estimates, such as those  derived by statistical methods that incorporate the number of people that  were overcounted and undercounted in the census, rather than the actual  census. We selected SSBG for our analysis because the formula for this block  grant program, which was based solely on population, and the resulting  funding allocations, were particularly sensitive to such alternative  population estimates. In short, as shown in figure 6, in 2004, 27 states and  the District of Columbia would have gained $4.2 million and 23 states  would have lost $4.2 million of the $1.7 billion in SSBG funding. Concluding Observations

The Bureau’s strategy for reducing the differential undercount appears to  be comprehensive, integrated, and based on lessons learned from the 2000  Census. If each of the various components is implemented as planned,  they will likely position the Bureau to address the differential undercount. With this in mind, the success of the Bureau’s efforts aimed at the hard-to- count will depend in large part on the extent to which they (1) start and  finish on schedule, (2) are implemented in the proper sequence, (3) are  adequately tested, and (4) receive appropriate staffing and funding. It will  also be important for the Bureau to have a real-time monitoring capability  to track the progress of the enumeration, target the Bureau’s resources to  where they are most needed, and to quickly respond to various  contingencies that could jeopardize the accuracy or cost of the count. 2010 Census: Plans for Decennial Census Operations and Technology  Have Progressed, But Much Uncertainty Remains.
Why GAO Did This Study

An accurate decennial census relies on finding and counting people-- only once--in their usual place of residence, and collecting complete and correct information on them. This is a daunting task as the nation's population is growing steadily larger, more diverse, and according to the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau), increasingly difficult to find and reluctant to participate in the census. Historically, undercounts have plagued the census and the differential impact on various subpopulations such as minorities and children is particularly problematic. GAO was asked to describe (1) key activities the Bureau plans to use to help reduce the differential undercount and improve participation, (2) the various challenges and opportunities that might affect the Bureau's ability to improve coverage in 2010, and (3) how different population estimates can impact the allocation of federal grant funds. This testimony is based primarily on GAO's issued work in which it evaluated the performance of various Census Bureau operations.

What GAO Found

The Bureau's strategy for reducing the undercount and improving participation in the 2010 enumeration appears to be comprehensive, integrated, and shaped by the Bureau's experience in the 2000 Census. If implemented as planned, the various activities the Bureau is developing should position the agency to address the undercount. Key operations include building a complete and accurate address list, implementing an Integrated Communications Campaign to increase awareness and encourage participation, and fielding special enumeration programs targeted toward historically undercounted populations. For example, the Bureau develops its address list and maps over the course of a decade using a series of operations that sometimes overlap to ensure all housing units are included. Among other activities, temporary census workers go door to door across the country in an operation called address canvassing to verify addresses. To help find hidden housing units, the Bureau's workers look for clues such as two mailboxes or utility meters that could indicate additional households. Likewise, the Bureau's communications campaign includes paid media, public relations, and partnerships with national and grassroots organizations, among other efforts, some of which will be targeted toward hard-to-count groups. Despite the Bureau's ambitious plans, a number of challenges and uncertainties remain. For example, the performance of the handheld computers that is critical to address canvassing has technical shortcomings, while the communications campaign faces the historical challenge of converting awareness of the census to an actual response. Further, success will depend in large part on the extent to which the various operations (1) start and finish on schedule, (2) are implemented in the proper sequence, (3) are adequately tested and refined, and (4) receive appropriate staffing and funding. It will also be important for the Bureau to have a real-time monitoring capability to track the progress of the enumeration, target its resources to where they are most needed, and to quickly respond to various contingencies that could jeopardize the accuracy or cost of the count. Our past work indicates that the accuracy of state and local population estimates may have an effect, though modest, on the allocation of grant funds among the states. Many of the formulas used to allocate grant funds rely upon measures of the population, often in combination with other factors. For example, we analyzed the sensitivity of Social Services Block Grants (SSBG) to alternative population estimates, rather than the actual census. We selected SSBG for our analysis because the formula, which was based solely on population, and the resulting funding allocations were particularly sensitive to alternative population estimates. Based on our simulation of the funding formula, 27 states and the District of Columbia would have gained $4.2 million and 23 states would have lost $4.2 million of the $1.7 billion in 2004 SSBG funding.