This paper examines the impact of a disruption of Egypt's oil and natural gas sector or a complete halt to exports of either oil or natural gas and closure of the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) oil pipeline, and the impact of those actions on world oil and natural gas markets. It is important to keep in mind that even the most nationalistic, isolationist, or anti-Western government would most likely not undertake all these measures. An additional factor mitigating the impact on world oil and natural gas markets is that in 2009, Egypt consumed much of the energy it produced and had to import coal, highlighting the limited importance of Egypt as a global energy producer; see Figure 2 . However, if the canal remained closed indefinitely, shipping costs would likely increase, adding upward pressure on oil prices. The same would likely be true for liquefied natural gas (LNG), but the effect would be less. Should the scenario described above come to pass, there would likely be little impact on the global oil and natural gas market in the long term.
The change in Egypt's government will likely not have a significant direct impact on the global oil and natural gas markets. There may be some short-term movements in price, mostly caused by perceived instability in the marketplace, but these would most likely be temporary. However, prolonged instability that raises the specter of spreading to other oil and natural gas producers in the region would likely add to upward price pressures. Although Egypt is considered an energy producer or net exporter overall, its oil and natural gas exports are not large enough to affect regional or global prices. The most serious impact would be on regional recipients of its natural gas exports.
Egypt's main influence on energy markets is its control of the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean oil pipeline (SUMED). The current low utilization of these two pieces of infrastructure would likely limit any effect of their closure in the near term. Both the oil and natural gas industry would, over time, find alternative routes to circumvent the canal and pipeline if necessary.