DOD Not Meeting Original TSAT Goals

DOD is not meeting its original cost, schedule, and performance goals for  the TSAT program. TSAT’s cost has increased by over $420 million, the  planned launch date for the first satellite has slipped more than 3 years,  and the satellites will be less capable than originally planned. Initial Goals for TSAT Were Based on Limited Knowledge

When DOD started the TSAT program in January 2004, it estimated the  total acquisition cost to be about $15.5 billion. In addition, DOD recently changed its TSAT  acquisition strategy to an incremental approach by deciding to build the  first two satellites with fewer capabilities and delaying the more advanced  capabilities for the later satellites in the program. However, as of April 2006,  DOD had yet to develop this new estimate. When DOD established initial goals for the TSAT program, it lacked  sufficient knowledge about key critical technologies. The results of the tests are to be  assessed at the second interim program review before DOD makes a  decision to enter the product development phase of the program. Importantly, this  review will include an assessment of the maturity levels of the critical  technologies. Remaining Gaps in Knowledge Could Hamper Successful Outcomes

Despite these positive steps to lower program risks, DOD faces gaps in  knowledge, as it begins to implement its new development approach, that  could impede TSAT’s success. Notwithstanding the approval for the revised TSAT program from senior  DOD officials, DOD has yet to justify the TSAT investment in light of other  DOD investments using the knowledge it has now gained on cost,  schedule, and initial capabilities to be delivered. Recommendations for Executive Action

To improve DOD’s transition to transformational communications by  gaining the additional knowledge it needs before TSAT enters product  development, we recommend that the Secretary of Defense direct the  Under Secretary of the Air Force to take the following four actions:
Reassess the value of TSAT in the broader context of other DOD  investments, using updated knowledge on likely cost, schedule,  technology, and initial capability;
Update requirements in coordination with the TSAT user community;
Prove that all critical technologies will work as intended; and
Establish new cost, schedule, and performance goals for the program  once the above knowledge has been gained. To determine if the TSAT program is using an acquisition approach that  will provide the knowledge it needs to proceed to product development,  we collected and reviewed documents that described the TSAT program’s  plans to build knowledge and to mitigate risks.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Department of Defense (DOD) wants to create a networked force where soldiers and systems are able to operate together seamlessly. To help facilitate this transformation, DOD began the Transformational Satellite Communications System (TSAT) program in January 2004. We reported in 2003 that TSAT was about to begin without sufficiently mature technology. In this report, at your request, we followed up with an assessment of (1) how the TSAT program is progressing, and (2) whether the program is using an acquisition approach that will provide the knowledge needed to enter product development.

What GAO Found

The Department of Defense is not meeting original cost, schedule, and performance goals established for the TSAT program. When the program was initiated in 2004, DOD estimated TSAT's total acquisition cost to be $15.5 billion and that it would launch the first satellite in April 2011. TSAT's current formal cost estimate is nearly $16 billion and the initial launch date has slipped to September 2014--a delay of over three years. Furthermore, while the performance goal of the full five-satellite constellation has not changed, the initial delivery of capability will be less than what DOD originally planned. After DOD established initial goals for TSAT, Congress twice reduced the program's funding due to concerns about technology maturity and the aggressiveness of the acquisition schedule. DOD developed the initial goals before it had sufficient knowledge about critical TSAT technologies. DOD is taking positive steps to lower risk in the TSAT program so it can enter the product development phase with greater chance of success. However, as DOD prepares to implement a new incremental development approach for the program, it faces gaps in knowledge that could hamper its success. An incremental development will mean reduced capabilities in the initial satellites and more advanced capabilities in the remaining satellites. Given this change, it will be important for DOD to update requirements in coordination with the TSAT user community. While senior DOD officials have agreed to these reduced capabilities to get the first satellite launched in 2014, DOD has yet to reevaluate its investment in TSAT in light of other DOD investments using the knowledge it has now gained. Using this new knowledge, DOD could be in a better position to set more realistic goals, before entering product development.