NOAA Has Made Progress on JPSS Development, but Continues to Face Challenges in Completing S-NPP Products, Revising the Program’s Scope, and Meeting Schedules

NOAA has made progress towards JPSS program objectives of  sustaining the continuity of NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellite capabilities  through the S-NPP, JPSS-1, and JPSS-2 satellites by (1) delivering  S-NPP data to weather forecasters and (2) by completing significant  instrument and spacecraft development for the JPSS-1 satellite. However, the program is behind schedule in validating the readiness of  S-NPP products and has experienced delays on the ground system  schedules for the JPSS-1 satellite. Until it addresses challenges in product and ground  system development, the program office may continue to experience  delays in delivering actionable S-NPP data to users and in meeting  program development schedules. Further, while the program is  reporting a 70 percent confidence level in the JPSS-1 launch date, its  analysis is likely to be overly optimistic because it was not conducted with  an integrated schedule and included a component schedule with  weaknesses. The JPSS Program Has Not Yet Established a Complete Integrated Master Schedule

According to our guidance on best practices in scheduling, the success  of a program depends in part on having an integrated and reliable master  schedule that defines when and how long work will occur and how each  activity is related to the others. However, significant weaknesses  exist in the program’s schedule. Specifically, about one-third of the  schedule is missing logical relationships called dependencies that are  needed to depict the sequence in which activities occur. This plan  identifies alternatives for mitigating the risk of a 14- to 18-month gap in  the afternoon orbit beginning in March 2016, between the current polar  satellite and the JPSS-1 satellite. Until NOAA  establishes a comprehensive contingency plan that integrates its  strategies and addresses the elements identified above to improve its  plans, it may not be sufficiently prepared to mitigate potential gaps in  polar satellite coverage. Also, the  agency does not track the usage of its satellite products or obtain  feedback on them, which limits the program’s ability to ensure that  satellite products are useful. Until the program office  develops a complete integrated schedule and addresses weaknesses in  component schedules, it will lack the information needed to effectively  monitor development progress and ensure the planned JPSS-1 launch  date. While  NOAA plans to add alternatives to its mitigation plan by fall 2013, it does  not yet have plans to add the other key components. Recommendations for Executive Action

Given the importance of having reliable schedules for managing JPSS  satellite launch dates and the significance of polar-orbiting satellite data to  weather forecasts, we recommend that the Secretary of Commerce direct  the Administrator of NOAA to   track the extent to which key groups of satellite data users are using   S-NPP and JPSS products, and obtain feedback on these products; establish a complete JPSS program integrated master schedule that  includes a logically linked sequence of activities; address the shortfalls in the ground system and spacecraft  component schedules outlined in this report; after completing the integrated master schedule and addressing  shortfalls in component schedules, update the joint cost and schedule  confidence level for JPSS-1, if warranted and justified; establish a comprehensive contingency plan for potential satellite data  gaps in the polar orbit that is consistent with contingency planning  best practices identified in this report. NOAA concurred with all five of our  recommendations and identified steps that it is taking to implement them. GAO staff who made  major contributions to this report are listed in appendix V.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) evaluate the National Oceanic and  Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) progress in meeting the Joint Polar  Satellite System (JPSS) program’s objectives of sustaining the continuity  of NOAA’s polar-orbiting satellite system through the Suomi National  Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) and JPSS satellites, (2) evaluate the  quality of the JPSS program schedule, and (3) assess NOAA's plans to  address potential gaps in polar satellite data. To assess plans to address potential gaps in polar satellite data, we  reviewed NOAA’s October 2012 polar satellite gap mitigation plan and a  subsequent technical assessment as well as NOAA’s plans for  implementing recommendations from the assessment. However, the contractor did not have a baseline schedule document.
Why GAO Did This Study

NOAA established the JPSS program in 2010 to replace aging polar satellites and provide critical environmental data used in forecasting weather and measuring variations in climate. However, program officials anticipate a gap in satellite data between the time that the S-NPP satellite reaches the end of its life and the JPSS-1 satellite becomes operational. Given the criticality of satellite data to weather forecasts, the likelihood of a significant satellite data gap, and the potential impact of a gap on the health and safety of the U.S. population and economy, GAO added this issue to its High Risk List in 2013.
GAO was asked to review the JPSS program because of the importance of polar satellite data. GAO's objectives were to (1) evaluate NOAA's progress in sustaining the continuity of NOAA's polar-orbiting satellite system through S-NPP and JPSS satellites; (2) evaluate the quality of NOAA's program schedule; and (3) assess NOAA's plans to address potential gaps in polar satellite data. To do so, GAO analyzed program management status reports, milestone reviews, and schedule data; examined polar gap contingency plans; and interviewed agency and contractor officials.

What GAO Found

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has made noteworthy progress on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) program by delivering data from its first satellite--the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP)--to weather forecasters, completing significant instrument development for the next satellite (called JPSS-1), and reducing the program's life cycle cost estimate from $12.9 billion to $11.3 billion by refocusing on weather products. However, key challenges remain. Specifically, S-NPP has not yet achieved full operational capability because the program is behind schedule in validating the readiness of satellite products. Also, the program does not track whether key users are using its products or if the products meet the users' needs. In addition, issues with the JPSS ground system schedules have delayed the delivery of key system capabilities. Until the program addresses these challenges, it may continue to experience delays in delivering actionable S-NPP data to system users and in meeting JPSS-1 development schedules.
A program's success depends in part on having an integrated master schedule that defines when and how long work will occur and how activities are related to each other; however, the JPSS program office does not yet have a complete integrated master schedule and weaknesses exist in component schedules. Specifically, the program established an integrated master schedule in June 2013 and is reporting a 70 percent confidence level in the JPSS-1 launch date. However, about one-third of the program schedule is missing information needed to establish the sequence in which activities occur. In addition, selected component schedules supporting the JPSS-1 satellite have weaknesses including schedule constraints that have not been justified. Until the program completes its integrated schedule and addresses weaknesses in component schedules, it will lack the information needed to effectively monitor development progress and have less assurance of meeting the planned JPSS-1 launch date.
While NOAA developed a mitigation plan to address a potential 14 to 18 month gap in afternoon polar satellite data in October 2012 and subsequently identified additional alternatives for addressing potential gaps, it has not yet established a comprehensive contingency plan. Specifically, NOAA has not yet revised its mitigation plan to include the new alternatives, and the plan lacks several key elements, such as triggers for when to take key actions and detailed procedures for implementing them. Until NOAA establishes a comprehensive plan, it may not be sufficiently prepared to mitigate anticipated gaps in polar satellite coverage.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is recommending NOAA develop a mechanism to track the usage of its satellite products, establish a complete integrated master schedule, address weaknesses in component schedules, and address shortfalls in polar satellite gap contingency plans. NOAA concurred with GAO's recommendations and identified steps it is taking to implement them.