Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

In response to the request of the Chairmen of the National Security Subcommittee, House Committee on Appropriations, and of the Subcommittee on Military Research and Development, House Committee on National Security, we sought to determine whether the services’ plans for developing and/or procuring guided weapons can be carried out as proposed within relatively fixed defense budgets, the number of guided weapons the services plan to buy are consistent with projected threats and modernization requirements, the current and planned guided weapon programs duplicate or overlap each other, and
DOD is providing effective oversight in the development and procurement of deep attack weapons. According to their procurement plans, the services plan to spend an average of $1.7 billion a year to procure guided weapons over the next 10 years—doubling the $848-million average yearly spending during fiscal years 1993-97. DOD’s planned procurement spending for guided weapon programs is projected to increase about 169 percent during the same period. As a result, the quantity requirements for guided weapons appear to be inflated, particularly in today’s budgetary and security environments. Each of the services uses its own battle simulation models and other tools to determine the number of weapons needed to meet the CINCs war objectives. When reviewing the services’ currently planned programs in the aggregate, we found (1) widespread overlap and duplication of guided weapon types and capabilities, (2) questionable quantities being procured for each target class, and (3) a preference for longer standoff and more accurate weapons rather than for other options that may be as effective and less costly. However, the study stopped short of recognizing overlap and duplication and did not recommend curtailment or cancellation of any programs. Questionable Acquisition Plans for Guided Weapons

DOD reviews and justifies its guided weapon acquisition programs on a case-by-case basis and does not assess its existing and projected capabilities in this area on an aggregate basis. Coupled with our findings of optimistic funding projections, inflated weapon requirements, duplicative guided weapon programs, and questionable quantities, we believe that DOD does not yet have a sound basis to ensure that it has the proper and cost-effective mix of deep attack weapon programs. Some DOD officials believe improved oversight is needed, and DOD is considering a proposal to expand the Joint Tactical Air-to-Air Missile Office’s responsibilities to include the coordination of air-to-ground weapon requirements and programs. To the contrary, DOD’s oversight approach to the services’ weapon acquisition and procurement has had very limited effect on guided weapon programs. DOD has had more success in providing oversight of air-to-air missile programs. This report focuses on DOD’s plans to acquire additional guided weapons for deep attack missions within the context of the existing inventory of deep attack weapons.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO examined the Department of Defense's (DOD) major guided weapon programs, focusing on whether: (1) the services' plans for developing or procuring guided weapons can be carried out as proposed within relatively fixed defense budgets; (2) the number of guided weapons the services plan to buy is consistent with projected threats and modernization needs; (3) the current and planned guided weapon programs duplicate or overlap each other; and (4) DOD is providing effective oversight in the development and procurement of deep attack weapons.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) DOD's planned increase in procurement spending for guided weapons is based on overly optimistic funding projections; (2) to acquire all the guided weapons now planned over the next 10 years, DOD plans to spend more than twice as much as it has on average between fiscal years 1993 and 1997; (3) without an increase in overall defense spending, increased resources may not be available as expected; (4) for the past several years, DOD has been unable to increase its procurement budgets as planned, and other programs could more than absorb any available increases; (5) while DOD has enough deep attack weapons in its inventory today to meet national objectives, the services plan to add 158,800 additional guided weapons to the inventory; (6) each of the new weapons has been justified by the services on a case-by-case basis and is projected to provide significant advantages in accuracy, lethality, delivery vehicle safety, and control of unintended damage; (7) in calculating the number of weapons needed, the services use assumptions which overstate the potential threat and target base; (8) as a result, the quantity requirements for guided weapons appear to be inflated, particularly in today's budgetary and security environment; (9) when reviewing the services' planned programs in the aggregate, GAO found: (a) widespread overlap and duplication of guided weapon types and capabilities; (b) questionable quantities being procured for each target class; and (c) a preference for longer standoff and more accurate weapons when other options may be as effective and less costly; (10) in contrast, DOD's Deep Attack Weapons Mix Study and Quadrennial Defense Review suggested only minor changes in guided weapon programs and did not address possible instances of duplication and overlap; (11) GAO believes that DOD does not yet have a sound basis to ensure that it has the proper and cost-effective mix of deep attack weapon programs; (12) DOD's oversight of the services' guided weapons programs has not prevented inflated requirements or program overlap and duplication; (13) the central oversight bodies and mechanisms already in place do not address requirements and capabilities on an aggregate basis and have had a very limited effect on guided weapon programs; and (14) some DOD officials believe improved oversight is needed, and a proposal is under consideration to expand the purview of the Joint Tactical Air-To-Air Missile Office to include the coordination of air-to-ground weapon requirements and programs.