Given the criticality of satellite data to weather forecasts, concerns that  problems and delays on the new satellite acquisition programs will result  in gaps in the continuity of critical satellite data, and the impact of such  gaps on the health and safety of the U.S. population, we concluded that  the potential gap in weather satellite data is a high-risk area. We added  this area to our High-Risk List in 2013 and it remained on the High-Risk  List in 2015. The GOES-R series  is the next generation of satellites that NOAA is planning; the satellites  are planned to replace existing weather satellites. As of October 2015, the agency implemented 4 of these  recommendations and is working on the remaining 8 recommendations. Since 2012, we have issued three reports on the JPSS program that  highlighted technical issues, component cost growth, management  challenges, and key risks. As of October 2015, the agency has implemented 2 recommendations  and was working to address the remaining 9 recommendations. Prior Schedule Concerns Were Warranted; GOES-R Program Delayed Its Committed Launch Date and Faces Important Decisions on How to Proceed

As previously noted, we have issued a series of reports on the GOES-R  program that highlighted schedule delays, management challenges, and  the potential for a gap in backup satellite coverage. GOES-R Satellite Launch Date Delayed; NOAA Extends the Expected Lifespans of Current Satellites, but the Risk of a Gap in Backup Coverage Remains

In August 2015, NOAA decided to delay the planned launch date of the  first GOES-R satellite from March 2016 to October 2016. Based on findings from our ongoing work, recent events have increased  the risk of achieving the October 2016 launch date. Based on ongoing work, we found that NOAA recently decided to change  its assumptions about the lifespan of the currently operational GOES  satellites. Any further  delays in the GOES-R launch date would increase this gap in backup  coverage, which could mean a gap in coverage if one of the primary  operational satellites were to fail. Timely implementation of our recommendations could  help to mitigate program risks. Program officials believe that it would be best to develop and launch  the GOES-T satellite as soon as possible to sustain NOAA’s policy of  having two operational satellites and one spare satellite on-orbit and  to obtain the enhanced functionality these satellites offer. We recommended that NOAA revise the polar satellite  contingency plan to, among other things, include an assessment of  available alternatives based on their costs and potential impacts, and  ensure that the relevant entities provide monthly and quarterly updates on  the progress on all mitigation projects and activities. NOAA Is Planning to Launch the JPSS-1 Satellite in 2017, but Continues to Face Schedule and other Risks

Based on our ongoing work, NOAA and the JPSS program continue to  make progress towards the launch of the JPSS-1 satellite as a  replacement for the currently on-orbit S-NPP satellite. While the launch date has not changed, the JPSS program has  experienced technical issues that have affected internal schedule  deadlines. The Possibility of a Gap in Polar Satellite Data Remains; JPSS Program Faces Key Risks, and Decisions Are Needed on Developing and Timing Future Satellites

We previously reported that NOAA is facing a potential near-term gap in  polar data between the expected end of useful life of the S-NPP satellite  and the launch of the JPSS-1 satellite. Should S-NPP last for 9  years, it could alleviate a potential near-term gap. Moving forward, NOAA also faces decisions on timing the development  and launch of the remaining satellites in the JPSS program. In summary, we have made multiple recommendations to NOAA to  improve management of the GOES-R and JPSS satellite programs and to  address weaknesses in contingency plans in case of a gap in satellite  coverage. The agency is now  facing important decisions on how to achieve the new launch schedule  and how to space out future satellites to ensure satellite coverage while  minimizing costs. According to  NOAA officials, it is also possible that JPSS-1 and -2 will last longer than  anticipated.
Why GAO Did This Study

NOAA is procuring the next generation of polar and geostationary weather satellites to replace aging satellites that are approaching the end of their useful lives. GAO has reported that gaps in polar satellite coverage and in backup coverage for geostationary satellites are likely in the near future. Given the criticality of satellite data to weather forecasts, concerns that problems and delays on the new satellite programs will result in gaps in the continuity of critical satellite data, and the impact such gaps could have on the health and safety of the U.S. population, GAO added mitigating weather satellite gaps to its High-Risk List in 2013 and it remained on the list in 2015.
GAO was asked to testify, among other things, on the cause and impact of a recent launch delay on the GOES-R program, and the status and key remaining challenges on the JPSS program. To do so, GAO relied on prior reports issued from 2012 to 2015 as well as on ongoing work on both programs. That work included analyzing progress reports and interviewing officials.

What GAO Found

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) $10.9 billion Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) program recently delayed the planned launch of the first satellite in the new series from March 2016 to October 2016. Based on its ongoing work, GAO found that the decision to delay the launch was due to poor schedule performance over the last few years (losing more than 10 days a month on average), recent technical issues with key components, and little schedule margin as the program entered integration testing. The October 2016 launch date may also be delayed if additional technical challenges arise or if schedule performance remains poor.
NOAA recently changed assumptions about the expected lifespan of existing GOES satellites from 7 to 10 years based on the longevity of prior satellites. However, the analysis supporting this change is over 10 years old. Even with this extension, NOAA may fall short of its policy of having 2 operational satellites and 1 backup satellite in orbit. The agency faces an 11 month gap in backup coverage until GOES-R is operational, during which time there would be only 2 operational satellites (see figure). Any further delays in the GOES-R launch date could exacerbate that gap. NOAA is now facing important decisions on when to launch the remaining satellites in the GOES-R series to maximize satellite coverage while minimizing development and storage costs.
Based on its ongoing work, GAO found that NOAA's $11.3 billion Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) program is making progress toward the planned launch of the JPSS-1 satellite in March 2017. However, the program has experienced technical issues that have affected internal schedule deadlines, such as an issue with debris in an instrument's subsystem that delayed its delivery by approximately 8 months, and faces key risks in the remainder of development. NOAA is also facing the risk of a potential near-term gap in polar data prior to the launch of the JPSS-1 satellite. Similar to the decision on the GOES satellites, in April 2015, NOAA revised its assumptions about the expected life of the satellite that is currently in-orbit by adding up to 4 years, which would reduce the chance of a near-term gap. However, risks to the performance and health of the on-orbit satellite, and to development of the JPSS2 satellite could increase the risk of a gap. Also, NOAA faces key decisions on timing the development and launch of the remaining JPSS satellites to ensure satellite continuity while balancing the possibility that satellites could last much longer than anticipated.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making any new recommendations in this statement, but—since 2012—has made 23 recommendations to NOAA to strengthen its satellite acquisition programs and contingency plans. The department agreed with GAO's recommendations and is taking steps to implement them. To date, NOAA has implemented 6 recommendations and is working to address the remaining 17. Timely implementation of these recommendations will help mitigate program risks.