The 2020 Decennial Census is not the first decennial census to be on  GAO’s High- Risk-List. Its plan for 2020 includes four broad innovation areas (re- engineered field operations, administrative records, verifying addresses  in-office, and the Internet self-response option). The Bureau Needs to Manage Risks of Implementing Innovations

		The Bureau Is Planning Many Previously Unused Innovations for the 2020 Census

The four innovation areas the Bureau plans for 2020 show promise for a  more cost-effective head count (see table 1). However, they also  introduce new risks, in part because they include new procedures and  technology that have not been used extensively in earlier decennials, if at  all. As a result, it will be imperative that the Bureau conduct a robust  testing program culminating in the 2018 End-to-End Test that is to  demonstrate the systems and operations that will be used for 2020 under  operational conditions. The Bureau Is Not Fully Prepared to Implement Key IT Capabilities

		The Bureau Continues to Face Challenges in Managing and Overseeing IT Programs, Systems, and Contractors Supporting the Decennial

The Bureau is managing the acquisition and development of new and  modified IT systems, which adds complexity to the design of the census. We have previously reported that the Bureau has faced challenges in  managing internal coordination and governance, contracts, schedule,  scope, and costs for its IT systems, and we have ongoing work reviewing  each of these challenges:  Internal coordination and governance. This delay reduces the time  available for the integration and security testing activities leading up to  the 2018 End-to-End test. The Bureau is still in the  midst of determining the full complement of systems to be used for the  2018 End-to-End Test (beginning in August 2017) as well as the 2020  Census. For example, the scope of work for the integration contract has  increased since the contract was awarded in August 2016, and the  corresponding costs are likely to rise as well. Thus, it  will be important that these security assessments are completed in a  timely manner and that risks are at an acceptable level before the  systems are deployed. The Bureau Needs to Improve the Reliability of Its 2020 Cost Estimate

		Estimation Does Not Conform to Best Practices

In June 2016, we reported that the Bureau’s October 2015 update of the  life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census did not conform to the four  characteristics that constitute best practices, and, as a result, the  estimate was unreliable. In 2016, we reported that although the Bureau had taken significant steps  to improve its capacity to carry out an effective cost estimate, such as  establishing an independent cost estimation office, its October 2015  version of the estimate for the 2020 Census only partially met the  characteristics of two best practices (comprehensive and accurate) and  minimally met the other two (well-documented and credible). Several Events Indicate That the Cost of Some Elements of the 2020 Census Design Are Increasing

The Bureau has not published an update to its October 2015 cost  estimate, yet several events since then suggest that the cost of the  current design could be higher. In summary, while the Bureau has made substantial progress in  revamping its approach to the census and testing the new design,  considerable challenges and uncertainties remain in (1) implementing the  cost-saving innovations; (2) managing key IT systems, including ensuring  their security, to support the census; and (3) developing a quality cost  estimate for the 2020 Census. For these reasons the 2020 Census is a  GAO high-risk area.
Why GAO Did This Study

One of the most important functions of the Bureau is conducting a complete and accurate decennial census of the U.S. population, which is mandated by the Constitution and provides vital data for the nation. A complete count of the nation's population is an enormous challenge as the Bureau seeks to control the cost of the census, implement operational innovations, and use new and modified IT systems. In recent years, GAO has identified challenges that raise serious concerns about the Bureau's ability to conduct a cost-effective enumeration. For these reasons, GAO added the 2020 Census to the High-Risk List in February 2017.
In this statement, GAO discusses three challenges: (1) implementing new innovations, (2) implementing and securing critical IT systems (3) and ensuring the reliability of the Bureau's cost estimate for the 2020 Census.
The information in this testimony is based primarily on GAO's previous reports on the Bureau's planning efforts for 2020. GAO also collected and reviewed new information on the following Bureau activities: (1) recent decisions on preparations for the 2020 Census, (2) IT security testing leading up to the 2017 Census Test, (3) progress on key systems to be used for the 2018 Census Test, and (4) efforts to update its life-cycle cost estimate.

What GAO Found

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) is planning many innovations for the 2020 Census, including re-engineering field operations, using administrative records to supplement census data, verifying addresses in-office using on screen imagery, and allowing the public to respond using the Internet. These innovations show promise for controlling costs, but they also introduce new risks, in part because they include new procedures and technologies that have not been used extensively in earlier decennials, if at all. It will be important for the Bureau to fully test these activities under census-like conditions during the 2018 End-to-End Test scheduled to begin August 2017 and make appropriate modifications.
The Bureau continues to face challenges in managing and overseeing the information technology (IT) programs, systems, and contracts supporting the decennial census. These challenges include managing internal coordination and governance, contracts, schedule, scope, and IT costs. For example, GAO expects that the IT costs will rise due to increases in the scope of work for the integration contract. In addition, the Bureau needs to address several security risks and challenges to secure its systems and data, including ensuring that security assessments are completed in a timely manner. Given that the 2018 End-to-End test begins in August 2017, it will be important that the agency work to address these challenges quickly. GAO has ongoing work that is reviewing each of these challenges.
The Bureau's October 2015 cost estimate for the 2020 Census does not fully reflect characteristics of a high-quality estimate and cannot be considered reliable. Overall, GAO found that the cost estimate partially met the characteristics of two best practices (comprehensive and accurate) and minimally met the other two (well-documented and credible). Additionally, the Bureau has not published an update to its October 2015 cost estimate, yet several events since then including changes to the census design suggest that the cost of the current design (around $12.5 billion in 2020 constant dollars) could be higher than planned.

What GAO Recommends

GAO has previously made a number of recommendations to address issues raised in this testimony, many of which have not yet been implemented.