	Overview

Secularism has been one of the "fundamental and unchanging principles" guiding the Turkish Republic since its founding in 1923. It also has been the principle that has led to considerable domestic political tension. Over the years, political parties have emerged that appeared to challenge that principle and to seek to restore the centrality of religion to the state. Each time, the party has eventually been banned from the political stage. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) formed in 2001, has Islamist roots, but claims a conservative democratic place in the political spectrum. The AKP won the 2002national election by a wide margin and the 2007 election by a wider one, but its victories have not ended the secular-religious tensions in the country. The public prosecutor initiated a lawsuit to have the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) banned for being a "focal point of anti-secular activities." Prior to this action and after it, in stages, the authorities arrested prominent secularists/ultranationalists ( ulusalcilar ) on suspicion of plotting and instigating actions to create chaos in the country and provoke the military to overthrow the government. The United States is concerned for stability in Turkey because it is a strategic partner, NATO ally, and candidate for membership in the European Union (EU). The Bush Administration may be concerned about the survival of Turkey's democracy because Turkey is one of the few predominantly Muslim democratic countries in the world and Administration officials refer to it as an inspiration for other Muslims even as they appear to have lessened emphasis on democratization elsewhere. Some analysts concluded that the Court had placed the AKP on probation. The Court has not yet issued the reasoning for its decision, which reportedly is based on the constitution. It may be premature to expect the AKP to undertake an aggressive agenda before renewing its mandate in the March 2009 municipal elections or in early national elections; the next national elections are otherwise scheduled to occur in July 2012. The High Criminal Court has accepted the indictment, and the case will be heard beginning October 20, 2008. Some analysts believe that the AKP is using the Ergenekon prosecutions in its fight for life, seeking to intimidate its opponents. If true, charges that Ergenekon is a product created for revenge and intimidation would undermine AKP's claim to be the standard-bearer of democracy.
Secularism has been one of the "fundamental and unchanging principles" guiding the Turkish Republic since its founding in 1923. It also has been the principle that has produced considerable domestic political tension. Over the years, political parties have emerged that appeared to challenge that principle and to strive to restore religion to a central place in the state. Each time, the party has eventually been banned from the political stage. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), formed in 2001, has Islamist roots and claims to be conservative and democratic. The AKP won the 2002 and 2007 national elections by wide margins, yet its victories have not ended the secular-religious tensions in the country.
The AKP narrowly survived a lawsuit seeking its closure on July 30, 2008, when the Constitutional Court held that the party was a "focal point of anti-secular activities," but opted for a financial penalty instead of a ban. Some analysts contend that the party is on "probation," but it is not yet clear how the court case will affect AKP's conduct. In the near term, it is proposing to pursue additional reforms required to achieve European Union (EU) membership. If AKP renews and strengthens its mandate in the March 2009 municipal elections or in early national elections, it might then opt for a more aggressive agenda.
At the same time, police have unearthed what they claim is a conspiracy, called Ergenekon, of ultranationalists and secularists to create chaos in the country and provoke the military to overthrow the government. Those arrested include two retired four-star generals. The case will be presented in Court beginning in October 2008. Some suggest that the arrests are evidence of Turkey's progress as a democracy because the "deep state" or elite who have manipulated and controlled the political system for 50 years are finally being confronted. Others charge that the AKP is using the affair to intimidate its opponents and that the authorities' handling of those charged fails to meet international standards. The powerful Turkish military has been unusually quiet throughout the closure case and the Ergenekon revelations and appears to be cooperating with the Ergenekon investigation.
The United States is concerned for stability in Turkey because it is a strategic partner and NATO ally. The Bush Administration has closely monitored recent developments in Turkey, which it continues to view as a secular democracy that could serve as an inspiration for other Muslim majority countries. The recent domestic turmoil may either strengthen Turkey's democracy or cast a shadow on it.
This report will be updated if developments warrant. It is a sequel to CRS Report RL34039, Turkey's 2007 Elections: Crisis of Identity and Power, by [author name scrubbed], which may be consulted for background.