Best practices in GAO’s Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide illustrate  how an agency can strengthen its ability to control costs by using  available cost data to make comparisons over time and identify and  quantify trends. The Bureau Is Assessing Options for Controlling Field Costs, but Additional Steps Could Be Taken

		The Bureau Is Considering Design Alternatives to Potentially Reduce Costs for the 2020 Census

The Bureau has developed a range of design alternatives for the 2020  Census aimed at counting each housing unit at a lower cost than in 2010. Decision points at key phases of the planning process could  improve the Bureau’s ability to manage risks as well as achieve desired  cost, schedule, and performance outcomes for the decennial. Recommendations for Executive Action

To improve the Bureau’s ability to control costs for the 2020 decennial  and balance cost and quality, we recommend that the Secretary of  Commerce direct the Under Secretary of the Economics and Statistics  Administration, as well as the Director of the U.S. Census Bureau, to take  the following four actions:
Develop and document a method to compare costs in 2010 to those in  future decennials, for example, around major activities or investments,  to allow the Bureau to identify and address factors that contribute to  cost increases. To help ensure that the  Bureau produces a reliable and high-quality cost estimate for the 2020  Census, we recommend that the Bureau take the following action:
Finalize guidance, policies, and procedures for cost estimation in  accordance with best practices prior to developing the Bureau’s initial  2020 life cycle cost estimate. The Department of Commerce expressed broad  agreement with the overall theme of the report but did not directly  comment on the recommendations. It raised concerns about specific  aspects of the summary of findings which GAO addressed as appropriate. In commenting on the first paragraph, the  Bureau stated that it does not believe its inability to identify specific  factors affecting past growth will make it difficult to control costs for the  2020 Census. However, our report concludes that the Bureau’s inability to  identify specific actionable factors will make it difficult for the Bureau to  focus its cost control efforts for the 2020 Census. However, the paragraph discusses practices  for strengthening agency decision making for large projects rather than  establishing formal guidance for developing cost estimates. GAO staff who made key contributions to this  report are listed in appendix V.

Appendix I: Objective, Scope, and Methodology

To identify the key factors affecting cost growth from the 2000 Census to  the 2010 Census, we reviewed U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) strategic  planning documents for 2000 and 2010, Bureau operational and systems  plans for 2000 and 2010, Bureau assessments and evaluations of past  census operations, National Academy of Sciences work on decennial  census costs, and our prior work on implementation of 2000 and 2010  census operations. It is the same system, but the name changed over time. We reviewed Office of Management  and Budget guidance on major acquisitions as well as GAO work on  acquisition best practices to determine whether the use of decision points  could help the Bureau make more informed decisions about census  design that could relate to cost control. To assess the extent to which the Bureau’s plans for developing life cycle  cost estimates for 2020 are consistent with best practices, we reviewed  available Bureau documentation on the Bureau’s life cycle cost estimation  processes and procedures.
Why GAO Did This Study

A complete count of the nations population is an enormous challenge requiring the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) to balance requirements for accuracy with the need to control escalating costs. The 2010 Census was the costliest U.S. Census in history at about $13 billion, and was about 56 percent more costly than the $8 billion cost of the 2000 Census (in 2010 dollars). The fundamental challenge facing the Bureau going forward is cost effectively counting a population that is growing steadily larger, more diverse and becoming increasingly difficult to enumerate. As requested, this report assesses (1) the key factors affecting cost growth from the 2000 Census to the 2010 Census; (2) the Bureaus plans for controlling costs for the 2020 Census and what additional steps, if any, could be taken; and (3) the extent to which the Bureaus plans for developing life cycle cost estimates for 2020 are consistent with best practices. The report is based on GAOs analysis of Bureau data and documents as well as interviews with Bureau officials.

What GAO Found

The average cost to count each housing unit rose from $70 in 2000 to $97 in 2010 (in constant 2010 dollars). While the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) made changes to its budget structure from 2000 to 2010, they did not document the changes that would facilitate comparisons over time and cannot identify specific drivers of this cost growth. According to GAOs Cost Estimating and Assessment Guide, an agency can strengthen its ability to control costs by using available cost data to make comparisons over time and identify and quantify trends. The Bureau faces the fundamental challenge of striking a balance between how best to control costs without compromising accuracy. However, the Bureaus inability to identify specific actionable factors affecting past growth will make it difficult for the Bureau to focus its efforts to control costs for the 2020 Census.
The Bureau developed several design alternatives for the 2020 Census that could help reduce costs, but has not identified decision points when executives would review progress and decide whether the Bureau is prepared to move forward from one project phase to another. Office of Management and Budget guidance and previous GAO work support the use of these practices to strengthen an agencys decision making on large-scale projects. Incorporating these practices in its 2020 planning could help the Bureau improve its ability to manage risk to achieve desired cost, schedule and performance outcomes.
The Bureau is taking steps to strengthen its life cycle cost estimates. However, the Bureau has not yet established guidance for developing cost estimates. The Bureau is scheduled to begin work on the 2020 Census estimate in fiscal year 2013 but has limited time to develop guidance. By finalizing such guidance, the Bureau can better ensure that it is developing comprehensive, accurate, and credible estimates for the 2020 Census.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Census Director develop a method to identify and address specific factors that contribute to cost increases, identify decision points, and finalize guidance for the 2020 life cycle cost estimate. The Department of Commerce expressed broad agreement with the overall theme of the report but did not directly comment on the recommendations. It raised concerns about specific aspects of the summary of findings which GAO addressed as appropriate.