Domestic tensions persist between those who favor an orientation of Serbia toward the West, including membership in the EU, and nationalist forces led by the ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS), which oppose a Western orientation and express a desire to remain close to Russia. Many nationalists have not forgiven the West, particularly the United States, for supporting states that seceded from Yugoslavia in the 1990s, intervening in the Bosnia conflict, conducting airstrikes against Serbia in 1999, and supporting Kosovo's independence in 2008. Successive Serbian governments during this time have had to balance favorable domestic views of relations with Russia with aspirations for better relations with the EU, the United States, and NATO. Serbia's relations with its neighbors have been particularly tense due to allegations of war crimes committed by Serbs during the dissolution of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Serbia's relationship with Bosnia also has been strained at times. Since then, Serbia has taken steps to strengthen screening and security measures along its borders and improve information-sharing practices with its neighbors. officials, as well as officials from the United States, Austria, and other key countries, have indicated they are willing to listen to a proposal based on border adjustment, Germany has remained firmly opposed. The 2015 European migration crisis, in which hundreds of thousands of migrants and refugees entered the EU via the Balkan route, was a reminder of the region's strategic importance. The EU is also worried about potential political instability and the influence of third powers, such as Russia, China, and Turkey, in the Western Balkans. However, relations between the former Yugoslavia and Soviet Union were often rocky after Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito broke with Stalin in 1948. Russia also channels its influence through its media and energy linkages with Serbia. Moscow reportedly provides financial and political support to several Serbian political parties. Some observers believe Russia uses its position in Serbia as a base to carry out operations in the Balkan region. These observers contend that most Serbians are also committed to Euro-Atlantic integration. Since Serbia's 2000 transition, the United States has viewed a stable, democratic Serbia as essential to stability in the Balkan region. Although the United States has offered to "agree to disagree" with Serbia over Kosovo, the issue may continue to affect relations, particularly as the United States generally remains Kosovo's most influential international supporter. Many Members of Congress support Kosovo's independence, the efforts at reconciliation between Serbia and Kosovo, and EU membership for both countries, but other Members have expressed skepticism about Serbia's relations with Russia or the future viability of the Serbia-Kosovo coexistence. Over the past several years, Congress has maintained a steady interest in the stability of the Western Balkans and has supported the efforts of those countries to join the EU and NATO. Some Members of Congress also visited countries in the Western Balkans in 2017 and 2018. Recognizing that Serbia is an important political and economic factor in the overall future of the Western Balkans and that the United States has provided a sizable amount of assistance to Serbia, Congress may focus more specifically on U.S. relations with Serbia; its role in the Western Balkans; Serbia's EU membership negotiations; and Serbia-Russia relations, particularly the operation of the Russian facility in Niš and Russian support for pro-Moscow political parties in Serbia.
Following the conflicts in the 1990s in the countries of the former Yugoslavia, the prospect of membership in the Euro-Atlantic community and the active presence of the United States and European Union (EU) in the Western Balkans provided a level of stability that allowed most of the countries of the region to adopt economic and political reforms. During this time, Slovenia and Croatia joined the EU. These countries, along with Albania and Montenegro, also joined NATO. Other countries of the Balkans are pursuing EU and NATO membership.
However, many observers in Europe and the United States have expressed concern that political stability in the Western Balkans, sometimes referred to as Europe's "inner courtyard," remains tenuous. Several of these countries have experienced political crises, sometimes involving third-party interference, as well as stagnating economies, high unemployment, and high rates of emigration. These crises have raised concerns that any decrease in EU or U.S. presence could create a regional vacuum in which transnational crime, radicalization, or terrorism could flourish. Furthermore, some observers are concerned with the growing economic and political role of Russia, China, and other states whose agendas in the Western Balkans might conflict with U.S. and EU interests in the region.
Some observers see Serbia as relatively stable, despite its historically difficult relations with its neighbors, its ongoing dispute with Kosovo, recent concerns over its commitment to democratic rule, and its desire to balance its orientation toward the West with its historical ties to Russia. At the same time, others view Serbia as an important piece in the geopolitical competition in the Balkans between the West and Russia.
U.S. relations with Serbia have been rocky at times, due to past U.S. interventions in the conflicts in Bosnia and Kosovo and U.S. recognition of Kosovo's independence. Nevertheless, relations between Washington and Belgrade seem to have improved recently. Between 2001 and 2017, the United States provided close to $800 million in aid to Serbia to help stimulate economic growth, strengthen the justice system, and promote good governance. The United States continues to support Serbia's efforts to join the EU. At the same time, the United States has sought to strengthen its own relationship with Serbia through deepening cooperation based on mutual interests and respect. Many observers believe the EU, despite its stated commitment to expansion in the Western Balkans, has been preoccupied by internal issues such as the migration crisis, recovery from the eurozone crisis, and the exit of the United Kingdom from the union. These observers, in both Washington and the Balkans, believe the United States should reinvigorate its strategy of active engagement with the Western Balkans, and in particular its relations with Serbia.
This report provides an overview of Serbia and U.S. relations with Belgrade.