Data Show That Delays and Cancellations are Increasing, but Provide an Incomplete Picture of the Extent and Sources of Delays

Nationwide, according to DOT data the annual number of domestic airline  flight delays and cancellations has increased about 62 percent (from 1.2  million to 2.0 million), while the annual number of scheduled flights has  increased about 38 percent (from 5.4 million to 7.5 million) since 1998. In  the New York area, the trend is even more pronounced, as the number of  domestic flight delays and cancellations at the three main commercial  airports has increased about 111 percent, while the number of domestic  operations has increased about 57 percent since 1998. DOT statistics indicate that 2007 was the second worst year on record for  U.S. airlines’ on-time performance, and the trends in the percentage of  flight delays and cancellations appear to be worsening. Compared to the rest of the country, where flight delays and cancellations  have been steadily increasing, the magnitude and upward trend of the  problem in the New York region is greater than the rest of the airspace  system. DOT Data Provide an Incomplete Picture of the Sources of Delays

The data collected by DOT on the sources of delays provide information  about where delays occur and what causes them, but the data are  incomplete. In 2007,  approximately 38 percent of delays were assigned to this category. For example, the original source of delay for a late arriving aircraft  may be the result of other sources—such as a severe weather condition,  the airline, security, or the national airspace system—or a combination of  one or more of these sources. DOT and FAA Are Implementing Actions Intended to Reduce Delays

DOT and FAA are implementing several actions intended to reduce flight  delays beginning in summer 2008. DOT and FAA have announced multiple capacity-enhancing initiatives  designed to reduce delays in the New York region for this summer and  beyond. The  initiatives range from new procedures and reroutes for handling air traffic  during severe weather conditions to efforts to reduce excessive spacing on  final approach before landing, and to an airspace flow program that allows  New York departures to move more freely while delays are redistributed  to airports within the region. These two demand management policies are being developed, but it is  unlikely that they will be in effect by this summer. DOT and FAA are currently reviewing comments for the proposed rule to  establish slot auctions at LaGuardia and will be collecting comments on the  proposed rule to establish slot auctions at JFK and Newark until July 21, 2008;  thus it is unlikely the final rules will be issued during the summer. DOT’s and FAA’s Actions May Help Reduce Delays, but the Extent of Delay Reduction in Summer 2008 Will Likely Be Limited

DOT’s and FAA’s capacity-enhancing initiatives have the potential to  reduce congestion and thereby avoid delays, according to FAA and  stakeholders we consulted, but the effect will likely be limited for the  summer 2008 traveling season. DOT’s and FAA’s demand management  policies—in particular, caps on scheduled operations at all three New  York area airports—are expected to have some delay avoidance impact in  the near term. DOT and FAA set the caps at Newark and LaGuardia at a  level intended to avoid an increase in delays above that experienced in  2007 and set the caps at JFK to generate a 15 percent reduction in average  departure delays over 2007 levels. Thus, the caps at Newark are  not expected to bring a delay reduction benefit as compared to delays  experienced in 2007. In closing, DOT and FAA should be commended for taking steps to reduce  mounting flight delays and cancellations for the 2008 summer travel  season. 3. Appendix II: Status and Reported Benefits of Capacity-Enhancing Initiatives and Demand Management Policies

The New York Aviation Rulemaking  Committee (ARC) recommended a  list of 77 items for consideration and  implementation in the New York  area. From these, FAA identified 17  short-term initiatives for immediate  action.
Why GAO Did This Study

Flight delays and cancellations have plagued the U.S. aviation system. According to the Department of Transportation (DOT), more than one in four flights either arrived late or was canceled in 2007--making it one of the worst years for delays in the last decade. Delays and cancellations were particularly evident at certain airports, especially the three New York metropolitan commercial passenger airports--Newark Liberty International (Newark), John F. Kennedy International (JFK), and LaGuardia. To avoid a repeat of last summer's problems, DOT and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) have worked with the aviation industry over the past several months to develop and implement several actions to reduce congestion and delays for the summer 2008 travel season. This testimony addresses (1) the trends in the extent and principal sources of flight delays and cancellations over the last 10 years, (2) the status of federal government actions to reduce flight delays and cancellations, and (3) the extent to which these actions may reduce delays and cancellations for the summer 2008 travel season. This statement is based on an analysis of DOT data on airline on-time performance, a review of relevant documents and reports, and interviews with officials from DOT, FAA, airport operators, and airlines, as well as aviation industry experts and associations. DOT and FAA provided technical comments which were incorporated as appropriate.

What GAO Found

DOT data show that flight delays and cancellations have increased nationwide and especially in the New York region; however, the data provide an incomplete picture of the source of delay. Since 1998, the total number of flight delays and cancellations nationwide has increased 62 percent, while the number of scheduled operations has increased about 38 percent. Flight delays and cancellations in the New York region are even more pronounced. Specifically, since 1998, the number of flight delays and cancellations in the New York region has increased about 111 percent, while the number of operations has increased about 57 percent. DOT data on the sources of delays provide an incomplete picture. For example, in 2007, late arriving aircraft accounted for 38 percent of delays nationwide, but this category indicates little about what caused the aircraft to arrive late, such as severe weather. To reduce delays and congestion beginning in summer 2008, DOT and FAA are implementing several actions that for the purposes of this review GAO is characterizing as capacity-enhancing initiatives and demand management policies. Some of these actions are already in effect, such as 11 of the 17 short-term initiatives designed to improve capacity at the airport or system level and the hourly schedule caps on operations at the New York area airports. The other actions are being developed but are unlikely to be in effect by this summer. For example, DOT and FAA are soliciting comments on the proposed rule to establish slot auctions at JFK and Newark until July 21, 2008. DOT's and FAA's capacity-enhancing initiatives and demand management policies may help reduce delay, but the collective impact of these actions on reducing delay in 2008 is limited. For example, the benefit of the 17 initiatives--which range from efforts to reduce excessive spacing on final approach before landing to new procedures for handling air traffic during severe weather conditions--is generally expected to come from the initiatives' combined incremental improvements over time and in certain situations. The demand management policies may have a more immediate but limited effect on delays since the caps at Newark and LaGuardia were set at a level that was generally designed to avoid an increase in delay over 2007 levels. For example, the caps at Newark are set at a level that that is not expected to bring a delay reduction as compared to delays in 2007.