	Introduction

The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) defeated the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in August 30, 2009 elections for the Lower House of parliament. He will likely be succeeded as prime minister by DPJ party leader Yukio Hatoyama, who is expected to be confirmed as the next prime minister in a special session of parliament scheduled for mid-September. The political changeover in Tokyo could significantly affect U.S. interests and goals in Asia, although most analysts predict the DPJ will not fundamentally alter the U.S.-Japan alliance relationship. The DPJ has long called for a more "independent" relationship with the United States and has been critical of aspects of the U.S.-Japan alliance, such as plans to realign U.S. military forces based in Japan, Japan's "Host Nation Support" (HNS) payments (worth around $4 billion) that defray about 75% of the costs of maintaining American troops and bases in Japan, and some provisions of the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). Throughout this period, the LDP has been a staunch supporter of the U.S.-Japan security treaty and, in recent years, has sought a major expansion of bilateral defense cooperation. As it is, the DPJ will maintain the coalition with the leftist Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the anti-reform People's New Party (PNP) in order to maintain control of the Upper House of the Diet. Now that the DPJ is the main ruling party, it will be expected to make good on at least some of its ambitious campaign proposals to "change Japan." In the run-up to the August 30 election, the DPJ toned down some of its criticism of the bilateral alliance, indicating a potentially more pragmatic approach toward the United States. However, the party remains deeply divided on foreign policy issues and party leaders continue to send conflicting signals about the kind of relationship they seek to strike with the United States over the short and long term. The party has called for a reduction of the approximately 50,000 U.S. forward deployed troops in Japan, particularly those based in Okinawa Prefecture. Implications for the United States

The political changeover in Tokyo following the August 30 elections represents something of a watershed moment for U.S.-Japan relations. Cooperation between Washington and previous LDP-backed governments has been virtually unbroken for much of the postwar period. The DPJ Position on the U.S.-Japan Alliance

The DPJ has often sent conflicting signals about its approach toward the U.S.-Japan alliance—a result of intra-party ideological divisions, past attempts to differentiate itself from the LDP, and episodic statements about the alliance by party leaders. Some analysts interpret the DPJ's call for greater independence as a desire to avoid Japanese entanglement in the U.S. global strategy, especially in activities that may involve financial or military contributions to U.S.-led operations. Defeated implementing legislation in the Upper House that temporarily suspended, in November 2007, the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) deployment to the Indian Ocean to refuel coalition ships involved in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan. As the party transitions to take control of the government, it has left many questions about whether, and to what extent, it plans to change Japan's relations with the United States. Other Implications for U.S. The DPJ, at least in rhetoric, supports a more active international role for Japan through United Nations peacekeeping operations (UNPKO) and other UN-sanctioned activities that are largely consonant with U.S. foreign policy goals and interests. The party's call for Japan to become a full "member of Asia" suggests a departure from what the DPJ has characterized as the LDP's over-emphasis on relations with the United States, but appears to fall short of a more strategic shift to replace the U.S.-Japan alliance with an alternative regional security arrangement. In particular, the party proposes stronger ties with China and South Korea through deeper economic integration and enhanced diplomatic engagement.
In a historic landslide victory, on August 30, 2009, Japan's largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), ousted the main ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in elections for control over Japan's Lower House of parliament. The LDP has had almost continuous control of the Japanese government since 1955 and has been a staunch supporter of the U.S.-Japan alliance throughout the postwar period. The DPJ, which includes a mixture of right- and left-leaning members and is led by Yukio Hatoyama, is now Japan's main ruling party. The Diet (Japan's parliament) is expected to elect Hatoyama as Japan's new prime minister in a special Diet session scheduled to begin on September 16. Since 2007, the DPJ has controlled the less powerful Upper House of the Diet, along with two smaller parties, a coalition that is expected to continue once the DPJ officially takes over the government.
The DPJ policy platform advocates sweeping economic and administrative reforms and has called for a "proactive" foreign policy with greater "independence" from the United States through deeper engagement with Asia and a more United Nations-oriented diplomacy. In particular, the party has in the past criticized many issues related to the U.S.-Japan alliance, such as plans to realign U.S. forward deployed forces based in Okinawa, Japan's "Host Nation Support" (HNS) payments (worth around $4 billion) that defray much of the costs of American troops and bases in Japan, and the bilateral Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). In 2007, the DPJ briefly blocked legislation allowing the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) to continue the refueling of U.S. and allied vessels engaged in Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan. For the United States, the most significant of these issues would be the HNS and base realignment plans.
During the campaign for the Lower House elections, the DPJ showed signs of a more pragmatic approach toward the U.S.-Japan alliance in order to deflect LDP criticism that it was not prepared to run the country. The DPJ dropped demands to end the current legislative authorization for the JMSDF refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, and took a slightly more ambiguous position regarding the SOFA and other bilateral alliance management issues. The party's call for a U.N. and Asia-oriented diplomacy also appears to fall short of a more strategic shift to replace the U.S.-Japan alliance with an alternative regional security arrangement. Other signs suggest that the party might indirectly support U.S. foreign policy interests over the long-term through enhanced Japanese contributions to U.N.-sanctioned activities, as well as engagement in regional trade institutions and multilateral fora. Nonetheless, the party remains deeply divided on many foreign policy-related issues and continues to send conflicting signals about its overall approach toward the United States.
While a political changeover in Tokyo represents a watershed moment for Japan and potentially for U.S.-Japan relations, the extent to which there will be significant policy changes in Tokyo remains uncertain. It is not clear whether some of the DPJ's past criticism of the U.S.-Japan alliance and other LDP-backed policies was the result of opposition party politicking or more fundamental policy principles that will be implemented now that the party is coming to power. The DPJ faces daunting political and economic challenges at home that many see as a higher priority for the party than its proposals for adjusting the structure of the U.S.-Japan alliance.
This report analyzes the DPJ's policy platform and reviews the implications for U.S. strategic and economic interests now that the party and its coalition allies are set to take control of the Japanese government in the wake of the August 30 parliamentary elections.