1). The Border Patrol Implemented the Border Safety Initiative in June 1998

In response to concerns about the number of migrants who are injured or  die while attempting to cross the border, the INS implemented the Border  Safety Initiative (BSI) and a number of related programs beginning in June  1998. The primary objectives of  the BSI are to reduce injuries among migrants and to prevent migrant  deaths in the southwest border region. As of October 2005, the  Border Patrol had deployed 164 BORSTAR agents within its nine Border  Patrol sectors along the southwest border. Because many migrants  attempting to enter the United States illegally may not carry identification,  the BSI also attempts to identify those who have died while crossing the  border. BSI and NCHS Data Show That, Since the Late 1990s, Increases in Deaths along the Southwest Border Were Accounted for by Increases in Deaths in the Tucson Sector

Our analysis of the BSI and NCHS data shows consistent trends in the  numbers, locations, causes, and characteristics of deaths over time. 2). To the extent that an increased number of apprehensions  generally can be assumed to represent an increased number of migrants  attempting illegal entry, the inverse relationship between apprehensions  and deaths in Tucson suggests that deaths have increased despite the fact  that there has not been a corresponding increase in the number of people  attempting to cross in that sector. A Number of Factors Would Need to Be Considered in Order to Assess Cause and Effect Relationships between Migrant Crossings, Border Enforcement, the BSI, and Related Efforts

Because multiple factors beyond the efforts of the BSI may potentially  affect the number of border-crossing deaths in any given year, the  influence of each would need to be taken into account and measured in  relation to the number of migrant deaths in order to accurately assess the  impact of the BSI. Measuring the effectiveness of the BSI in reducing  border-crossing deaths would require a comparison of changes in the  number of migrant deaths with changes in other causal factors—such as  the Border Patrol’s enforcement efforts, the number of migrants  attempting to cross the border illegally, and weather conditions, as well as  changes in how and where the BSI is implemented over time. For example, changes in the Border Patrol’s enforcement  efforts might lead to shifts in the locations where migrants attempt to  cross. Because both the NCHS and BSI data indicate that the problem of migrant  border-crossing deaths has been growing in recent years, it is important to  continue to improve the available data about these deaths by refining  methods for tracking and recording deaths, including procedures for  communicating with local authorities in order to share information about  all potential cases of border-crossing deaths that occur within the BSI  target zone. (3) To what extent do existing data allow for an evaluation of the  effectiveness of the BSI and other Border Patrol efforts to prevent border- crossing deaths? Methods Used to Identify Trends in Federal Data on the Numbers, Locations, Causes, and Characteristics of Border-Crossing Deaths

We analyzed specific data elements in the BSI data that were relevant to  our analysis of border-crossing deaths.
Why GAO Did This Study

Reports in recent years have indicated that increasing numbers of migrants attempting to enter the United States illegally die while crossing the southwest border. The Border Patrol implemented the Border Safety Initiative (BSI) in 1998 with the intention of reducing injuries and preventing deaths among migrants that attempt to cross the border illegally. GAO assessed: (1) Trends in the numbers, locations, causes, and characteristics of border-crossing deaths. (2) Differences among the Border Patrol sectors in implementing the BSI methodology. (3) The extent to which existing data allow for an evaluation of the effectiveness of the BSI and other efforts to prevent border-crossing deaths.

What GAO Found

GAO's analysis of data from the BSI, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and studies of state vital registries shows consistent trends in the numbers, locations, causes, and characteristics of migrant border-crossing deaths that occurred along the southwest border between 1985 and 2005. Since 1995, the number of border-crossing deaths increased and by 2005 had more than doubled. This increase in deaths occurred despite the fact that, according to published estimates, there was not a corresponding increase in the number of illegal entries. Further, GAO's analysis also shows that more than three-fourths of the doubling in deaths along the southwest border since 1995 can be attributed to increases in deaths occurring in the Arizona desert. Differences among the BSI sector coordinators in collecting and recording data on border-crossing deaths may have resulted in the BSI data understating the number of deaths in some regions. Despite these differences, our analysis of the BSI data shows trends that are consistent with trends identified in the NCHS and state vital registry data. However, the Border Patrol needs to continue to improve its methods for collecting data in order to accurately record deaths as changes occur in the locations where migrants attempt to cross the border--and consequently where migrants die. Improved data collection would allow the Border Patrol to continue to use the data for making accurate planning and resource allocation decisions. Comprehensive evaluations of the BSI and other efforts by the Border Patrol to prevent border-crossing deaths are challenged by data and measurement limitations. However, the Border Patrol has not addressed these limitations to sufficiently support its assertions about the effectiveness of some of its efforts to reduce border-crossing deaths. For instance, it has not used multivariate statistical methods to control for the influences of measurable variables that could affect deaths, such as changes in the number of migrants attempting to cross the border.