(3) 

	Estimates of Mexico's Share of Drug Trafficking Activity

According to the Department of State's Bureau for International Narcotics and LawEnforcement Affairs, Mexico is the principal transit country for South American cocaine enteringthe United States, the leading foreign source of marijuana, and a principal source of heroin. With regard to cocaine, the major drug of concern, the State Department's INCSR reportcovering the year 2003 states that "an estimated 70 percent of the U.S.-bound cocaine shipments passthrough [Mexican] territory." This appears to be a slightly higher estimate than in the past. Mexico's role as a base for drug traffickers and as a center for money-laundering persisted andperhaps increased as well. The result for 2003 was still a 15% reduction from average seizures of 23.40 metric tons inthe previous five years (1998-2002), and it surpassed only two of the previous five years. Seizures of opium declined from 310 kilograms in 2002 to 189 kilograms in 2003, accordingto the State Department, a 39% reduction from the previous year, and a 30% reduction from theaverage of 409 kilograms in the 1998-2002 period. Seizures of heroin declined 41% from 282 kilograms in 2002 to 165 kilograms in 2003, asreported by the State Department, and this result was a 49% decline from the average seizures of 240kilograms in the 1998-2002 period. The Mexican datafor 2004 do not contain information on seizures of methamphetamine. Thenumber of arrests of Mexicans and the number of total arrests were up 10% from 2002 to 2003, butdown 20% from the average in the previous five years. Actions Against Major Traffickers. The report covering 2003 states that "Mexicanauthorities sustained an intensive counternarcotics effort throughout 2003, including the capture ofmajor drug cartel figures. . . ." In line with these reports, the Mexican State of the Nation reportstates that 31,719 people associated with seven drug organizations were arrested from December2000 to June 2004, including 15 cartel leaders, 39 financiers, and 64 lieutenants. Extraditions. Notable efforts to punish drug-related corruption include the arrest in January 2001 of prisonofficials who facilitated the escape of drug lord Joaquin Guzman; the arrest in February 2001 of stateand local police in Mexicali who had blocked official efforts to capture AFO lieutenant GilbertoHiguera Guerrero; the arrest in April 2001 of a brigadier general and two other officers forcomplicity with the Gulf Cartel; the arrests in Tecate in April 2002 of more than 40 high-level lawenforcement officials with ties to AFO traffickers; the arrest in October 2002 of 25 mid-levelofficials on suspicion of disclosing sensitive information to drug traffickers; the implementationthroughout 2002 of policies to force the retirement of all personnel in the Federal Judicial Police;the seizure in January 2003 of 17 offices of the elite federal anti-drug unit known as FEADS anddisbandment following the discovery of evidence that it was being corrupted by drug traffickers; andthe arrest in late January 2004 of a number of Mexican state police officers in the border state ofChihuahua on suspicion of involvement with drug traffickers in the killing of 11 men from rival druggangs. With a potentialharvest of 7,500 hectares, the potential yield of 13,500 metric tons of marijuana in 2003 was up 71%from 2002, and up 76% from the average of 7,460 for the 1998-2002 period. Mexico's Counter-Narcotics Cooperation with the United States

U.S.-Mexico counter-narcotics cooperation increased substantially during the Administrationof President Zedillo (1994-2000), with the full range of law enforcement, military, and border anddrug control agencies being involved. According to the INCSR covering 2002 and 2003, the cooperation between the countries hascontinued along the same trajectory. Despite impressive eradication efforts, the estimatedproduction in Mexico of opium poppy gum and marijuana increased significantly in the last year forwhich reporting is complete.
This report provides information on Mexico's counter-narcotics efforts during the first fouryears of the presidency of Vicente Fox. Special emphasis is placed on calendar year 2003, coveredby the State Department's March 2004 report on international narcotics control, and the first sixmonths of 2004, covered in President Fox's September 2004 "State of the Nation" report. This reportwill be updated when warranted by events.
Share of Traffic. According to the State Department, an estimated 70 percent of theU.S.-bound cocaine shipments pass through Mexican territory, a higher estimate than in past years. Mexico remains a major source country for heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine, and a majorcenter for money laundering activities.
Control Efforts. Seizures of cocaine by Mexico in 2003 were up 59% from 2002, but theywere down 15% from the average yearly seizures in the previous five years (1998-2002), accordingto the State Department's latest report. Seizures of marijuana were up 24% from 2002, as well, andup 33% from the average in the previous five years. Seizures of methamphetamine and drug labsincreased significantly in 2003 as compared to 2002 and as compared to the 1998-2002 average. Onthe other hand, seizures of opium in 2003 were down 39% from 2002, and down 30% from theaverage of the 1998-2002 period. Seizures of heroin were down 41% in 2003 compared to 2002, andwere down 49% from the previous five years. Arrests were up in all categories in 2003, and therewere major actions against leading drug lords. The Mexican State of the Nation report states that31,719 people associated with seven drug organizations were arrested from December 2000 to June2004, including 15 cartel leaders, 39 financiers, and 64 lieutenants. Mexico extradited 31 personsto the United States in 2003, including 18 Mexican nationals on drug-related charges. Eradication of opium and marijuana increased in 2003, but with more hectares of cultivation, the potential yieldof opium was up 74% over 2002 and up 45% from the previous five years, while the potential yieldof marijuana was up 71% from 2002 and up 76% from the 1998-2002 average.
Cooperative Efforts. President Bush and President Fox have met many times and havemade the bilateral relationship a top priority, although disagreements over Iraq created some tension. In these meetings, the presidents agreed to enhance law enforcement and counter-narcoticscooperation between the two countries, and this cooperation was facilitated by the modification ofthe U.S. drug certification process. Top officials say that the countries have achieved unprecedentedlevels of cooperation, including the sharing of sensitive intelligence and expanded training forMexican anti-drug forces. In the post 9/11/01 period, the countries have expanded cooperation intooverlapping counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism programs.