	Background

Since the 1960s, geostationary and polar-orbiting environmental  satellites have been used by the United States to provide  meteorological data for weather observation, research, and  forecasting. 1). NOAA is also planning a future  generation of satellites, known as the GOES-R series, which are  planned for launch beginning in 2012. Table 2 highlights key system-related  improvements GOES-R is expected to make to the geostationary  satellite program. Satellite Programs Often Experience Technical Problems, Cost Overruns, and Schedule Delays

Satellite programs are often technically complex and risky  undertakings, and as a result, they often experience technical  problems, cost overruns, and schedule delays. Table 4 lists key problems  experienced with these programs. GOES-R Procurement Activities Are Under Way, but System Requirements and Cost Estimates Are Changing

At the time of our review, NOAA was nearing the end of the  preliminary design phase on its GOES-R program and planned to  award a contract for the system’s development in August 2007. In May 2006, program officials  estimated that the life cycle cost could reach $11.4 billion. The  agency then requested that the program identify options for  reducing the scope of requirements for the satellite series. Specifically, NOAA reduced the  minimum number of satellites to two. The GOES-R Program Office Has Taken Steps to Address Past Lessons Learned, but Significant Actions Remain

NOAA has taken steps to apply lessons learned from problems  encountered on other satellite programs to the GOES-R  procurement. Key lessons include (1) establishing realistic cost and  schedule estimates, (2) ensuring sufficient technical readiness of the  system’s components prior to key decisions, (3) providing sufficient  management at government and contractor levels, and  (4) performing adequate senior executive oversight to ensure  mission success. NOAA has established plans designed to mitigate  the problems faced in past acquisitions; however, many activities  remain to fully address these lessons. Until it completes these  activities, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program  will repeat the increased cost, schedule delays, and performance  shortfalls that have plagued past procurements. Additionally, the delivery of the first satellite was delayed by 5 years. In summary, the procurement of the next series of geostationary  environmental satellites—called the GOES-R series—is at a critical  juncture. Recent concerns about the potential for cost growth on the  GOES-R procurement have led the agency to reduce the scope of  requirements for the satellite series. While NOAA is positioning itself to improve the acquisition of this  system by incorporating the lessons learned from other satellite  procurements including the need to establish realistic cost  estimates, ensure sufficient government and contractor  management, and obtain effective executive oversight, further steps  remain to fully address selected lessons and thereby mitigate  program risks.
Why GAO Did This Study

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R series (GOES-R). This new series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to summarize and update its report previously issued to the Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards--Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites: Steps Remain in Incorporating Lessons Learned from Other Satellite Programs, GAO-06-993 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 6, 2006). This report (1) determines the status of and plans for the GOES-R series procurement, and (2) identifies and evaluates the actions that the program management team is taking to ensure that past problems experienced in procuring other satellite programs are not repeated.

What GAO Found

At the time of our review, NOAA was nearing the end of the preliminary design phase of its GOES-R system--which was estimated to cost $6.2 billion and scheduled to have the first satellite ready for launch in 2012. It expected to award a contract in August 2007 to develop this system. However, recent analyses of the GOES-R program cost--which in May 2006 the program office estimated could reach $11.4 billion--have led the agency to consider reducing the scope of requirements for the satellite series. Since our report was issued, NOAA officials told GAO that the agency has made a decision to reduce the scope of the program to a minimum of two satellites and to reduce the complexity of the program by canceling a technically complex instrument. NOAA has taken steps to implement lessons learned from past satellite programs, but more remains to be done. Prior satellite programs--including a prior GOES series, a polar-orbiting environmental satellite series, and various military satellite programs--often experienced technical challenges, cost overruns, and schedule delays. Key lessons from these programs include the need to (1) establish realistic cost and schedule estimates, (2) ensure sufficient technical readiness of the system's components prior to key decisions, (3) provide sufficient management at government and contractor levels, and (4) perform adequate senior executive oversight to ensure mission success. NOAA has established plans to address these lessons by conducting independent cost estimates, performing preliminary studies of key technologies, placing resident government offices at key contractor locations, and establishing a senior executive oversight committee. However, many steps remain to fully address these lessons. Until it completes these activities, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program will repeat the increased cost, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls that have plagued past procurements.