	Background

The space shuttle is the world’s first reusable space transportation system. Since it is the nation’s only launch system capable of transporting  people, the shuttle’s viability is critical to the space station. However,  efforts to do so have been stymied by the agency’s inability to develop a  long-term strategic investment plan and a systematic approach for defining  shuttle requirements, because the spacecraft’s life expectancy and mission  have continued to change. Specifically, NASA has not made explicit decisions on shuttle  requirements-–such as its future mission, lift capability, and life  expectancy. NASA’s Process for Selecting and Prioritizing Upgrades Could Be Further Improved

NASA is making an effort to improve how it identifies, selects, and  prioritizes shuttle upgrades. The SLEP Process Currently in Place

In December 2002, NASA initiated a SLEP as the primary framework for  ensuring safe and effective operations, along with a management plan a  few months later, documenting roles and responsibilities and an annual  process for selecting and prioritizing upgraded projects and studies. Shuttle Upgrades Could Potentially Cost Billions More Than Currently Estimated

Until NASA finalizes the basic requirements for the shuttle and further  improves its process for identifying and selecting upgrades, it will be  difficult to accurately and reliably estimate the total cost of upgrades  through 2020. The total cost of shuttle upgrades, however, could  potentially be significantly greater as the estimate did not include potential  projects such as a crew escape system. In addition, a number of potential  changes could significantly increase the estimated cost, such as changes in  program requirements, schedule slippages caused by delays in software  and hardware integration, and implementation of recommendations of  the CAIB. However, in June 2003, the agency estimated the shuttle  upgrade cost through that year by using a rough order of magnitude  estimate of $300 million-$500 million a year, or a total of $5 billion- $8 billion. NASA had  planned to upgrade the shuttle in the future. Now, after the Columbia  tragedy, NASA has an increased emphasis to fly the shuttle safely through  2020. Recommendations for Executive Action

To strengthen the agency’s efforts to modernize the space shuttle, we  recommend that the NASA Administrator take the following four actions:    Fully define the requirements for all elements of the ISTP so that those  responsible for identifying, selecting, and prioritizing shuttle upgrades will  have the guidance and a sound basis to ensure their decisions on upgrade  projects are completely integrated with all other elements of the  transportation plan. Assessment due by February 2004 for Service Life Extension Program Summit.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Columbia tragedy has accentuated the need to modernize the 20-year-old space shuttle, the only U.S. launch system that carries people to and from space. The shuttle will now be needed for another two decades. As it ages, the spacecraft's components will also age, and it may become increasingly unreliable. GAO examined the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) plans to upgrade the shuttle through 2020, how it will identify and select what upgrades are needed, how much the upgrades may cost, and what factors will influence that cost over the system's lifetime.

What GAO Found

NASA cannot fully define shuttle upgrade requirements until it resolves questions over the shuttle's operational life and determines requirements for elements of its Integrated Space Transportation Plan (ISTP) such as the International Space Station (ISS). Prior efforts to upgrade the shuttle have been stymied because NASA could not develop a strategic investment plan or systematically define the spacecraft's requirements because of changes in its life expectancy and mission. NASA is trying to improve how it identifies, selects, and prioritizes shuttle upgrades. In March 2003, it institutionalized a Space Shuttle Service Life Extension Program (SLEP) to ensure safe and effective operations, along with a management plan documenting roles and responsibilities and an annual process for selecting upgraded projects and studies. In addition, NASA will try to improve shuttle safety by implementing the recommendations of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). NASA's estimate of the total cost to upgrade the shuttle--$300 million-$500 million a year, or a total of $5 billion-$8 billion through 2020--is reasonably based but could be significantly higher, as it does not include potential projects such as a crew escape system. It will be difficult for NASA to make an accurate estimate until it firmly establishes the basic requirements (such as life expectancy) for the shuttle and the process for selecting shuttle upgrades. A number of potential changes could significantly increase the cost of shuttle upgrades, including responses to the recommendations of the CAIB.