	Introduction

Each year, in October, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes the Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEWFO). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides heating degree-day estimates to the EIA for the STEWFO. Regional differences in weather, along with regional fuel usage patterns, can cause regional expenditure projections to vary from the U.S. average. In the Northeast, heating degree-days are expected to increase by 3.4%, while in the West they are expected to decrease by 3.1%. On average, the EIA projects that U.S. household expenditure on heating fuel for the 2013-2014 heating season will rise for households heating with natural gas, electricity, and propane while those using heating oil will see their expenditures decline. The STEWFO projects an increase in total natural gas consumption of less than 1% from 2013 to 2014. As a result, the price of home heating oil is closely related to the price of crude oil as well as the price of diesel fuel. The EIA projects increasing heating expenditures for areas heating with electricity. In a period of relatively weak economic growth, with persistent high unemployment, the key relationship may be that between the level of economic activity, measured by the real growth rate of gross domestic product, and the prices of natural gas and crude oil. Even in the face of a growing reserve base and increased production, U.S. natural gas prices are expected to increase by about 11% for consumers, on average, this heating season. Heating Expenditure Assistance

The Low Income Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is the primary federal government program to supplement home heating expenditures. It has not been announced whether the program will continue in the 2013-2014 winter heating season.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEWFO) for the 2013-2014 winter heating season, projects that American consumers should expect to see heating expenditures that on average will be somewhat higher than last winter. Average expenditures for those heating with natural gas are projected to increase by 13.4%, while those heating with electricity are projected to see an increase in expenditures of about 2.1%. These two fuels serve as the heating source for about 89% of all U.S. household heating. Propane and home heating oil consumers are also projected to see increased and decreased expenditures, respectively.
Within the U.S. average projections, differences exist with respect to region of the country and type of fuel.
Economic conditions of slow growth and relatively high unemployment suggest that lower consumption of all fuels may occur, especially in the context of the mixed winter weather conditions as forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While the price of natural gas is expected to increase, the price of oil has been relatively high over the past year. If the price of oil spikes for an extended amount of time, or if the price of natural gas increases more than projected, heating costs might be expected to rise above projected levels for many consumers. Lower prices could reduce seasonal heating expenditures.
Uncertainty exists with respect to the status of funding for the Low Income Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), the key federal program assisting low-income households with heating expenditures.
It has not been announced whether the CITGO program to assist some U.S. heating oil consumers will be continued.