NNSA Met Its Cost and Schedule Goals but Did Not Establish Clear, Consistent Goals for the Number and Type of W88 Pits It Planned to Produce

NNSA achieved its major goals for reestablishing its pit manufacturing  capability at LANL as defined by the agency in 2002. In addition, NNSA estimated that pit manufacturing  and certification expenditures for fiscal years 2001 through 2007 would be  about $1.55 billion. Finally, NNSA’s cost estimate did not include a  portion of over $1 billion in costs for other activities that were needed to  support the production of pits, as well as a wide variety of other defense- related activities, at LANL for fiscal years 2001 through 2007. NNSA Met Its 2002 Schedule and Cost Goals

According to NNSA officials, LANL first identified the activities necessary  to manufacture and certify a W88 pit in a 1998 project plan entitled,  “Integrated Pit Manufacturing and Certification Program Plan.” According  to the plan, the pit manufacturing mission would require a total of about  $1.25 billion for fiscal years 1996 through 2007 to fund three types of  activities: (1) establishing the capability to manufacture W88 pits,   (2) construction projects to support the pit manufacturing mission, and   (3) engineering and physics tests to certify the LANL-produced W88 pits. NNSA Did Not Establish Clear, Consistent Requirements for W88 Pit Production

While LANL’s 2001 plan contained goals related to a capability to  manufacture 10 W88 pits per year and the delivery of a single war reserve  pit to the stockpile, the 2001 plan did not define NNSA’s requirements for  the total number of war reserve W88 pits that LANL needed to  manufacture. According to NNSA officials, other  types of pits, such as pits that are destructively tested as part of  production quality control, may not meet the same standards and may be  of lower production quality. Several Factors Constrain NNSA’s Ability to Increase Its Pit Manufacturing Capacity

Because of three major constraints on pit manufacturing operations at  LANL, NNSA will not be able to substantively increase its pit  manufacturing capacity for the foreseeable future. First, LANL’s existing  facility for performing analytical chemistry has major operational and  structural limitations. Second, LANL’s ability to store pits and associated  waste is constrained by limited vault space. In particular, this program is responsible for facility operations  and maintenance and addressing environment, safety, and health issues. NNSA Has Not Established a Cost and Schedule Baseline for Its Future Pit Manufacturing Mission

NNSA’s plans for future pit manufacturing are still being developed and, as  a result, no reliable cost estimates exist. Over the past few years, NNSA  and DOD had planned to develop the capability to produce RRW pits  beginning about 2014. While NNSA and DOD continue to support  the RRW program, in the short run, NNSA plans to maintain the existing  pit manufacturing capability at LANL. Over the long term, NNSA is  planning, with DOD’s concurrence, to upgrade the PF-4 facility to achieve  a production capacity of up to 80 pits per year. However, NNSA has not  established a cost and schedule baseline to support its projected efforts. Specifically, in its fiscal year 2009  budget request to Congress, NNSA stated that three of its key objectives  for the pit manufacturing mission were to (1) establish the capability to  manufacture replacement pits for warheads other than the W88,   (2) improve manufacturing processes used to manufacture all pit types,  and (3) develop the processes and equipment necessary to manufacture  pits for future requirements. In October 2006, NNSA offered a new proposal to address the need for a  large-scale pit manufacturing facility. NNSA’s plans also call for spending hundreds of millions of dollars to  install a second manufacturing line for producing pits.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is responsible for manufacturing pits, a key component in a nuclear warhead. The department lost its ability to manufacture pits in 1989 with the closing of the Rocky Flats Plant. In 1996, the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) was directed to reestablish a pit manufacturing capability, starting with a limited number of pits for the W88 warhead. In recent years, NNSA has considered ways to increase its pit manufacturing capacity, including building a new, large-scale pit manufacturing facility. It has also proposed producing pits for the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW). GAO was asked to determine the (1) extent to which NNSA achieved its major goals for reestablishing its pit manufacturing capability, (2) factors that currently constrain its ability to increase its pit manufacturing capacity, and (3) status of its plans for future pit manufacturing. For this review, GAO met with NNSA and LANL officials, reviewed agency documents, and visited the nuclear facility used to manufacture pits.

What GAO Found

NNSA achieved its major goals for reestablishing its pit manufacturing capability at LANL as defined by the agency in 2002. Specifically, NNSA's goals were to create a capability to manufacture 10 pits per year starting in 2007 and to deliver a single W88 war reserve pit to the stockpile in 2007. War reserve pits must meet stringent specifications, while other types of pits, such as pits destructively tested for production quality control, may not meet the same standards. NNSA estimated that this effort would cost about $1.55 billion for fiscal years 2001 through 2007. According to NNSA, LANL produced 11 pits in 2007, eight of which were W88 war reserve pits, and spent about $1.29 billion for fiscal years 2001 through 2007. However, GAO found that NNSA did not establish clear, consistent goals for the number of W88 war reserve pits it planned to produce. Specifically, some NNSA documents, including budget requests to Congress, called for delivering 10 W88 war reserve pits per year starting in 2007. In addition, NNSA's cost estimate did not include estimates for a variety of activities that directly and indirectly supported the pit manufacturing mission at LANL between 2001 and 2007. These support activities, which included scientific experiments and facility operations and maintenance, totaled over $1 billion. Because of three major constraints on pit manufacturing operations at LANL, NNSA will not be able to substantively increase its current pit manufacturing capacity for the foreseeable future. Specifically, GAO found that LANL's building for performing analytical chemistry, which deals with the separation and identification of the components in a pit sample, has major operational and structural limitations. LANL's ability to store pits and associated waste is also constrained by limited vault storage space. Finally, a lack of available floor space in LANL's main nuclear facility limits its ability to install a large-scale, efficient production line for manufacturing pits. NNSA's plans for future pit manufacturing are still being developed and, as a result, no reliable cost estimates exist. Originally, NNSA and the Department of Defense (DOD) had planned to develop the capability to produce RRW pits beginning about 2014, pending the outcome of a RRW design definition and cost study in 2008. However, in fiscal year 2008 all of NNSA's RRW funding was eliminated. While NNSA and DOD continue to support the RRW program, in the short run, NNSA plans to maintain the existing pit manufacturing capability at LANL. Over the long term, NNSA is planning, with DOD's concurrence, to upgrade the existing LANL facility to achieve a production capacity of up to 80 pits per year. However, NNSA has not established a cost and schedule baseline to support its projected effort.