As a result, FAA will likely need to hire thousands of air traffic  controllers in the next decade. FAA has reported similar projections of a wave of air  traffic controller retirements, and in a 2004 report, the Inspector General  also reported on the coming wave, citing FAA’s estimate that nearly 7,100  controllers could leave the agency by 2012. In addition, we found  that by 2011, about 68 percent of the current controllers would be eligible  to retire. FAA regional  officials, who are responsible for ensuring that FAA’s air traffic facilities  are adequately staffed, were particularly concerned about FAA’s general  hiring practice. Training challenges include the limited capacity at the training center in  Oklahoma City and at the air traffic control facilities. Our 2002 report recommended that FAA develop a comprehensive  workforce plan for controllers to deal with these challenges, but FAA has  not finalized a plan and its recent actions call into question whether it will  have adequate strategies to address these challenges. Moreover, since hiring those controllers at the end of the year to reach a  level of 15,635, FAA has lost nearly 400 controllers and has hired only 1  new controller through May of this year. Its fiscal year 2005 budget  proposal does not request any funding to hire additional controllers to  address the wave of retirements. Challenges Will Also Affect the Ability of the Controller Workforce to Meet Future Changes in the Airline Industry and Use of Airspace

There are also challenges in the broader context of the air traffic control  system that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller workforce to  meet future changes in the airline industry and use of airspace. Challenges include the  need for FAA to (1) overcome significant and longstanding management  problems it has had with acquiring new systems to modernize the air  traffic control system intended to facilitate the safe and efficient  movement of air traffic by controllers and (2) adjust to shifts in the use of  airspace, including increases in the use of smaller aircraft and changes in  air traffic patterns around the country. For example, our past work on the Standard Terminal Automation  Replacement System (STARS)—the workstations used by controllers near  airports to sequence and control air traffic—highlights the importance of  controller involvement in the development, deployment, and refinement of  air traffic control systems. Today these challenges continue to underscore the need  for action in developing strategies that take into account (1) the expected  timing and location of anticipated retirements, (2) the length of the hiring  and training processes, (3) limitations on training capacities, and (4)  changes in the airline industry and use of airspace that may affect the air  traffic controller workforce in coming years. Without focused and timely  action on all of these fronts, the gap created by the expected bow wave of  controller retirements could reduce the effectiveness of the air traffic  control workforce to meet its mission just as increased activity in the skies  makes its effectiveness more critical than ever to the safety of our airways.
Why GAO Did This Study

In the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the capacity to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced near-gridlock conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination of factors, including the crises instigated by the events of 9/11, temporarily reduced air traffic, but air traffic is now back to near pre-9/11 levels. The ability of the air traffic control system to handle expected traffic in coming years may depend in part on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) effectiveness in planning for a long-expected wave of air traffic controller retirements. GAO's testimony focuses on (1) the magnitude and timing of the pending wave of air traffic controller retirements, (2) the challenges FAA faces in ensuring that well-qualified air traffic controllers are ready to step into the gap created by the expected large number of retirements, and (3) challenges that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of airspace. GAO's statement is based on past reports on the air traffic controller workforce, including GAO's 2002 report that surveyed controllers and analyzed controller workforce data. GAO has updated this work through interviews with and the collection of data from key stakeholders in the aviation community. This work was performed in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

What GAO Found

FAA faces a bow wave of thousands of air traffic controller retirements over the coming decade. GAO's 2002 report warned that almost half of the controller workforce (about 7,000 controllers) would retire over the next 10 years and about 93 percent of controller supervisors would be eligible to retire by the end of 2011. In addition, GAO's analysis showed that retirements could increase dramatically at the busiest air traffic control facilities. FAA and the Department of Transportation's Inspector General have also reported that a surge in controller retirements is on the way. FAA faces numerous hiring and training challenges to ensuring that wellqualified controllers are ready to fill the gap created by the expected retirements. For example, it can take 2-4 years or more to certify new controllers, and FAA's training facility and air traffic control facilities, where years of on-the-job training occur, have limited capacity. While FAA must make hiring decisions from a long-term perspective, it has generally hired replacements only after a current controller leaves. In 2002, GAO recommended that FAA develop a comprehensive workforce plan to deal with these challenges. However, FAA has not finalized a plan, and its recent actions call into question whether it has adequate strategies to address these challenges. For example, since the beginning of this year, FAA lost nearly 400 controllers and has hired only 1 new controller. Its fiscal year 2005 budget proposal does not request any funding to hire additional controllers. Challenges will also affect the ability of the air traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of airspace. Challenges include the need for FAA to overcome management problems with acquiring systems to modernize the air traffic control system and to adjust to shifts in the use of airspace, including increases in the use of smaller aircraft and changes in air traffic patterns around the country.