While the Bureau has made some limited use of administrative records  during past decennials, it plans to use them much more extensively in  2020. In its first operational plan for the 2020 Census (released October  6, 2015), the Bureau reported design decisions including the use of  administrative records to identify vacant addresses in advance of follow- up field work and to enumerate nonresponding households when possible  in order to reduce the need for repeated contact attempts during its  nonresponse follow-up operation (NRFU). The Bureau also updated the  life-cycle cost estimate for the 2020 Census to $12.5 billion (in constant  2020 dollars). This is slightly lower than the Bureau’s prior life-cycle cost  estimate of $12.7 billion. We plan to assess the reliability of the new cost  estimate and examine the practices the Bureau used to produce it after  the Bureau makes the model and its supporting documentation available. Administrative Records Can Reduce 2020 Fieldwork, but the Bureau Will Need to Better Define Milestones and Deadlines to Help Manage Risks

Bureau officials have said they hope to use administrative records to  reduce the field work involved in the most expensive census operation— NRFU, when Bureau staff traditionally knock on doors across the country  at homes of people who did not respond to the census, or who were  missed by census mailings. The Bureau has reported that the following  three uses are key to potentially saving up to $1.4 billion compared to  using traditional census methods. Identify vacant housing units. One of the largest efficiency gains to the census may come  simply from using administrative records to remove these vacant units  from the follow-up workload. In a test in Arizona earlier this year, this use  of administrative records enabled the Bureau to reduce the NRFU  workload by 11 percent. Identify and enumerate occupied nonresponding housing units. Predict the best times to complete NRFU. The Bureau Plans Additional Opportunities for Using Administrative Records in the 2020 Census

In addition to the three uses the Bureau has committed to, the Bureau  has identified nine additional uses of administrative records that may help  further reduce cost or improve the quality of the census (see figure 1). The Bureau has not separately estimated cost savings for these nine  uses, but has begun researching the feasibility of most of them. The Bureau Has Identified Potential Sources for Most of the Administrative Records It Hopes to Use for the 2020 Census

The Bureau has identified and obtained access to nearly all of the  sources that it believes it needs in order to leverage all of the  opportunities it has identified (see figure 2). Both of these databases would  help the Bureau improve its ability to find historically “hard-to-count”  groups, such as certain minority groups or young children. Setting Deadlines Would Help the Bureau Ensure It Makes Timely Decisions on Administrative Records

While the Bureau is to be commended for its efforts to expand its use of  administrative records to control costs and increase accuracy, we  identified actions the Bureau could take to increase its chances of  success. Bureau officials have stated that final decisions on the use of  administrative records are needed by the end of fiscal year 2017 in order  to be included in the Bureau’s 2018 full end-to-end test. However, these  deadlines do not appear in schedule documents. The Department of Commerce—the Bureau’s parent  agency—concurred with our recommendation. The Bureau Is Taking Steps to Address Challenges to Using Administrative Records for the 2020 Census; Implementing Our Previous Recommendations Could Help

The Bureau is taking steps to address challenges it faces in using  administrative records to control costs and improve the quality of the 2020  Census. One challenge facing the Bureau is ensuring the quality of the records it  receives from other agencies and levels of government. A second challenge involves protecting confidential data. A third challenge concerns public acceptance and attitudes about sharing  of personal data across government agencies for the purposes of the  census. The Bureau agreed with the recommendation and, in  November 2014, it provided us with a congressional engagement plan. Key Assumptions for Estimated Cost Savings from Administrative Records Are Logical; the Bureau Will Continue to Validate the Assumptions

As part of our recently released review, we determined that key  assumptions in the Bureau’s administrative records cost area made  sense.
Why GAO Did This Study

With a life-cycle cost of about $13 billion, the 2010 Census was the most expensive U.S. census in history and was 56 percent more costly than the $8.1 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2010 dollars). The Bureau estimates that its use of administrative records in the 2020 Census will reduce the cost compared to traditional census methods by $1.4 billion.
Given the potential cost savings associated with the use of administrative records, this testimony, which is based on a report GAO released last month, focuses on (1) the Bureau's plans for using administrative records, and the opportunities and challenges the Bureau faces going forward; and (2) the key assumptions supporting estimates of expected cost savings. To meet these objectives, GAO reviewed Bureau planning documents and test plans, and interviewed Bureau officials. GAO also relied on its Schedule Assessment Guide.

What GAO Found

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates that it can save around $1.4 billion using administrative records, compared to relying solely on traditional enumeration methods. While the Bureau has made some limited use of administrative records during past decennials, it plans to use them much more extensively in 2020 to achieve these savings.
For example, the Bureau plans to use administrative records to reduce the field work required for its most expensive census operation—nonresponse follow-up—when temporary Bureau employees knock on doors across the country to obtain information from people who did not respond to the census, or who were missed by census mailings. According to the Bureau, using administrative records to (1) identify vacant housing units; (2) identify and enumerate occupied nonresponding housing units when the records meet a certain quality threshold; and (3) predict the best times to visit a household can generate substantial cost savings. The Bureau is also exploring the feasibility of nine additional uses of administrative records that could reduce costs and improve the quality of the census still further. The Bureau already has access to nearly all of the data sources it needs to achieve the desired cost savings. It is also working to gain access to additional databases that could help improve its ability to find historically hard-to-count populations, such as certain minority groups and young children. While the Bureau is to be commended for its efforts to expand its use of administrative records, going forward, it will be important to set deadlines to help ensure it makes timely decisions on these other databases and uses of administrative records. According to Bureau officials, final decisions on the use of administrative records are needed by the end of fiscal year 2017 so the records can be adequately tested in the Bureau's full end-to-end test in 2018. However, these deadlines do not appear in schedule documents.
It will also be important for the Bureau to address key challenges to using administrative records, including (1) ensuring the quality of the records it receives from other government agencies; (2) protecting confidential data; and (3) ensuring congressional and public acceptance of the Bureau's plan to share personal data across government agencies. The Bureau's ongoing research and testing efforts can help with the first challenge. Fully implementing our prior recommendations to strengthen the security of its information systems and to develop a congressional outreach strategy could help address the second and third challenges.
Key assumptions the Bureau used in estimating potential cost savings from administrative records are logical, and the Bureau plans to provide additional support for them. For example, the Bureau's assumption that it could reduce its follow-up workload follows clearly from the Bureau's use of administrative records to remove vacant units from among those housing units needing follow-up because people did not respond to the census, reducing that workload by 11.6 percent. The Bureau released an updated life-cycle cost estimate in October 2015, and GAO anticipates reviewing its reliability after the Bureau makes support for the estimate available.

What GAO Recommends

In its report issued last month GAO recommended that the Census Director set deadlines for making final decisions about which records to use, and for what purpose. This will help ensure the Bureau's resources focus on those activities that show the most promise for reducing enumeration costs. The Department of Commerce—the Bureau's parent agency—concurred with GAO's findings and recommendation.