1). Representatives of the  aviation industry are concerned there will not be a sufficient number of  certain aviation professionals to support this growth—that is, the industry  is concerned that the demand will exceed the available supply and that a  labor shortage will result. Data and Forecasts Provide Mixed Evidence for a Current or Future Workforce Shortage

Our analyses of labor market data indicate that a shortage of aerospace  engineers may exist, but our analysis found less support for a shortage of  aircraft mechanics. For example, while both have low unemployment  rates, neither employment nor earnings have increased for aircraft  mechanics suggesting that employers’ demand for this occupation has  not outstripped supply. Further, while  some of these individuals will pursue other careers, the number of people  completing degrees in these or related fields has increased in recent  years, and BLS employment projections indicate slower than average or  no growth through 2022. Median earnings for aerospace engineers, however,  have stayed about the same over that time period, a statistic that does  not appear consistent with a labor shortage. 5). DOD was unable to  provide data for engineers. Employment for aircraft mechanics and services technicians and avionics  technicians is expected to increase by about 2.5 percent (or 3,000 jobs)  and 2.9 percent (or 500 jobs) over the same 10-year period,  respectively. Industry and Government Are Taking Some Actions to Facilitate Entry into the Aviation Workforce, but Employers Remain Concerned about Future Needs

Most of the employers we interviewed reported some challenges hiring  individuals in the selected professions; often this was not an issue of an  insufficient number of candidates seeking employment, but rather an  insufficient number of candidates with the experience and skills  employers sought available to work at the wage being offered. Almost all employers we spoke with reported taking some  actions that economists associate with responding to a labor shortage,  but few were raising wages to attract workers. Employers Are Taking a Variety of Actions to Attract and Retain Individuals in the Selected Aviation Professions

According to economic literature we reviewed, employers—who first  identify a shortage when they encounter difficulty filling vacancies at the  current wage rate—may take a variety of actions in response to a   Their actions vary in desirability for the  perceived labor shortage.employer based on resources required and their permanency. In response to difficulties filling employment vacancies, employers may:  Increase recruiting efforts. These tasks included non-destructive testing  and parts plating. The Federal Government Maintains Several Programs and Initiatives That Can Help Attract People to Aviation-Related Fields

As mentioned previously, while no single agency is tasked with  developing the aviation professional workforce, several maintain  programs that help promote and train people for aviation-related careers. Despite the availability of these programs, most employers and  stakeholders we interviewed told us that maintaining a qualified aviation  professional workforce will be more difficult in the future due to changes  in K-12 education, a perceived emphasis on earning a 4-year degree, and  the perceived decreased desirability for working in aviation, particularly  aviation maintenance. Agency Comments

We provided a draft of this report to the departments of Defense (DOD),  Education (Education), Labor (DOL), and Transportation (DOT) for review  and comment. We received technical comments on this report from  Education, DOL, and DOT which were incorporated as appropriate. DOD  did have any comments on the report. In this report, we examined: (1) what available data  and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential availability of  aerospace engineers, aircrafts mechanics, and avionics technicians and  (2) what actions industry and the federal government are taking, if any, to  help attract and retain these professionals. For both employment and earnings we analyzed any change from  2000 through 2012. We did not verify the data that the companies  collected and used in making their projections. DOD was unable to provide data on aerospace engineers. Information collected from these interviews is not  generalizable. The  identified agencies were: FAA, DOD, Veterans Affairs, and DOL.
Why GAO Did This Study

Maintaining a safe and robust aviation system requires qualified aviation professionals—including aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics technicians—to design, manufacture, and repair more than 225,000 aircraft. Aviation stakeholders have expressed concerns that an insufficient supply of personnel could develop because of imminent retirements and a perception that fewer people enter these professions.
GAO was asked to review the supply and demand of aviation professionals. This report discusses (1) what available data and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential availability of aerospace engineers, aircraft mechanics, and avionics technicians, and (2) what actions industry and the federal government are taking to help attract and retain these professionals. GAO (1) collected and analyzed data from 2000 through 2012, employment projections from 2012 through 2022, and literature relevant to the aviation professionals' labor markets; (2) reviewed agency documents; and (3) interviewed agency officials about programs that support training. GAO also interviewed 10 aviation industry associations (5 representing employees and 5 representing employers) and selected a non-generalizable sample of 23 private sector employers, based on size and location, to understand any actions used to attract their workforce.
GAO is not making recommendations. GAO received technical comments on this report from Education, DOL, and DOT, which were incorporated as appropriate. DOD did not have any comments on this report.

What GAO Found

GAO analysis found mixed evidence about a current or possible future shortage of aviation professionals. Aerospace engineers have experienced a low unemployment rate—the most direct measure of a labor shortage—and increases in employment suggesting a shortage may exist; however, earnings for the occupation have stayed about the same. Data provide less support for a shortage of aircraft mechanics; while the occupation has had a low unemployment rate, both employment and earnings have stayed about the same, suggesting that demand for this occupation has not outstripped supply. GAO was unable to analyze information on avionics technicians because of insufficient data. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment projections indicate slower than average or no growth for these three occupations over the next 10 years. Data also suggest the number of people who have received training related to these aviation professions is increasing; however, several other industries compete for these individuals and not all will pursue aviation careers.
Industry and government are taking some actions to attract and retain qualified individuals in these occupations, but employers GAO interviewed remain concerned about future needs. GAO found that most of these employers had some challenges hiring personnel with the skills employers were seeking at the wage they offered. According to economic literature, employers may take several actions in response to a perceived labor shortage—including increasing recruiting efforts and raising wages. Employers reported taking a variety of actions, but few were raising wages. Several agencies—the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Departments of Defense (DOD), Education, Labor (DOL), and Veterans Affairs—maintain programs that assist individuals interested in aviation careers. For example, in academic year 2011–2012, Education disbursed approximately $1.6 billion in federal grants to students majoring in related fields. Still, most employers and stakeholders stated that maintaining a qualified workforce will be difficult, in part because of a perception that fewer people are interested in aviation careers. GAO was unable to verify these concerns with available data. It could be expected that employers would continue to take actions at their disposal—such as adjusting wages or changing recruiting and training practices—if a labor shortage were to develop. While such actions would be considered typical market responses to a potential shortage, it does not mean such actions are costless or might not affect the industry.