1). Federal Buildings Are Located in Areas of Varying Seismic Hazard, and DOD and GSA Could Do More to Identify and Mitigate Seismic Risk

		Almost 40 Percent of Federally Owned and Leased Buildings Are Located in Very Strong to Extreme Earthquake Hazard Areas

As of September 2014, the federal government owned and leased almost  100,000 buildings (about 40 percent of the total approximate 252,000  federal buildings) within the United States that were located in earthquake  hazard areas which could experience very strong (MMI VII) to extreme  (MMI X) shaking (see table 2). DOD and GSA Have Not Fully Identified Their Exceptionally High Risk Buildings or Developed Comprehensive Seismic Safety Measures

			Defining and Identifying Exceptionally High Risk Buildings

DOD components and GSA have made varied efforts to define what  constitutes an “exceptionally high risk” building—those that are most  susceptible to earthquake damage—and identify these buildings within  their portfolios. However, DOD and GSA have not developed and implemented  comprehensive seismic safety measures to mitigate the impacts of  earthquakes across their building portfolios. However, based on our interviews with  DOD and GSA officials and observations during site visits, we identified  gaps in the extent to which agencies have implemented earthquake drills  and seismic safety inspections as part of a comprehensive approach to  seismic safety. ShakeAlert Is Capable of Delivering Earthquake Early Warnings, but Cannot Be Fully Implemented until Challenges are Addressed

		ShakeAlert System Is Capable of Issuing Early Earthquake Warnings to Enhance Public Safety and Benefit Private Users

			Public Safety

According to Shake Alert stakeholders we spoke with, the implementation  of an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system could have numerous  benefits, including providing warnings to the general public prior to  shaking and giving more time for individuals to take protective measures  such as to “drop, cover, and hold on.” For example, in the western United  States where the system is initially being implemented, EEW is capable of  providing up to a 90 second warning in California and up to a 5 minute  warning in the Pacific Northwest. Conclusions

Nearly half of all Americans are exposed to potentially damaging ground  shaking from earthquakes, according to USGS, with communities such as  Los Angeles, Memphis, San Francisco, and Seattle being particularly  vulnerable because of their locations in areas where extreme shaking  could occur. These cities have taken actions to assess and mitigate  earthquake risks, including mandating structural retrofits of buildings to  enable them to better withstand shaking and requiring that building  furnishings, equipment, and other nonstructural components be secured  to prevent their displacement and causing damage when shaking occurs. Until they fully  identify their exceptionally high risk buildings, DOD and GSA will be  unable to fully understand the most significant earthquake risks affecting  buildings for which they are responsible and develop a plan to reduce  those risks—in accordance with RP 8—which could inform prioritizing  funding requests for mitigations such as retrofits. Developing a program  management plan that establishes management controls for integrating  and managing the program’s individual components could help address  these challenges. 2. Establish a program management plan that addresses, among other  things, the known implementation challenges. DOD, GSA, and USGS agreed  with our recommendations, as applicable to each agency. If implemented effectively,  this action should begin to address the recommendation. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

This report examines (1) What actions have select city governments  taken to assess and mitigate seismic risks that could affect buildings in  their jurisdictions? (2) What is the distribution of federal buildings with  regard to seismic hazard areas, and to what extent have select federal  agencies identified and mitigated seismic risks to their buildings? (3)  What are the potential benefits of ShakeAlert and to what extent are  United States Geological Survey (USGS) and stakeholders addressing  technical and implementation challenges, if any, to implementing the  system? A 10 percent in 50 years probability equates to an  earthquake recurring and exceeding a given MMI level about every 475  years. Downtown  Seattle has a 5 percent chance of experiencing violent shaking within the  next 50 years, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Recent studies  have identified various vulnerabilities.
Why GAO Did This Study

Earthquakes pose a significant threat to people and infrastructure because of their capacity to cause catastrophic casualties, property damage, and economic disruption. According to the USGS, 16 states have a relatively high likelihood of experiencing damaging ground shaking in the next 50 years, and nearly half of all Americans are exposed to potentially damaging earthquakes.
GAO was asked to review efforts to mitigate against earthquakes impacts in the United States. Specifically, this report address (1) actions select cities have taken to mitigate seismic risks, (2) the distribution of federal buildings relative to earthquake prone areas and actions to identify and mitigate seismic risks to these buildings, and (3) what is known about the benefits of USGS's earthquake early warning system, ShakeAlert, and the extent to which implementation challenges are being addressed. GAO reviewed key documents and federal authorities; collected federal building inventory information; conducted site visits to selected cities—Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Memphis; and interviewed, among others, federal, state, and local officials.

What GAO Found

The four cities GAO visited (see figure) have taken various actions to assess and mitigate seismic risks, including identifying and assessing their high risk buildings, structurally retrofitting buildings, and requiring that furnishings and nonstructural components be secured, among other things.
Note: A 2 percent in 50 years probability equates to an earthquake recurring and exceeding a given MMI level about every 2,475 years.
About 40 percent of federally-owned and -leased buildings in the United States are located in areas where very strong to extreme shaking from earthquakes could occur. The Department of Defense (DOD) and General Services Administration (GSA), which are responsible for the majority of these buildings, have not fully identified their exceptionally high risk (EHR) buildings or prioritized and implemented comprehensive seismic safety measures. Federal agencies identified their EHR buildings as part of a government-wide effort in the 1990's, and GSA has begun taking initial steps to identify its current EHR buildings. In addition, while DOD and GSA have taken some steps to reduce the seismic risk of their buildings through seismic retrofits, disposals, and low-cost mitigation alternatives, GAO observed gaps in the extent to which these agencies have comprehensively implemented these mitigation measures, such as securing furniture. Until they fully identify their EHR buildings and prioritize and implement comprehensive safety measures, DOD and GSA will be unable to fully understand and address the vulnerabilities of their buildings.
U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) early warning system—ShakeAlert—is capable of broadcasting early warnings, and stakeholders, including state agencies and universities, have identified multiple benefits, such as enhanced public safety. However, implementation challenges exist that could inhibit efforts to expand the system throughout the western United States. For example, decisions on funding, public education, and user certification are needed to enable implementation of an integrated system across jurisdictions. Developing a program management plan, which helps establish management controls, could help address ShakeAlert implementation challenges.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that DOD and GSA (1) fully identify their exceptionally high risk buildings; (2) prioritize and implement comprehensive seismic safety measures to mitigate earthquake risks; and (3) that USGS develop a program management plan to address, among other things, ShakeAlert implementation challenges. DOD, GSA, and USGS agreed with the recommendations.