In comparison to when disaster declarations were first introduced in 1953, the average number of declarations issued per year has increased. Calendar year 2011 was the busiest year on record with 97 major disaster declarations. This report discusses a wide range of factors that might be contributing to the increase in declarations and provides policy options that might reduce the number of declarations and some of their associated costs. Today the principal authority governing federal assistance for emergencies and major disasters in the United States is the Robert T. Stafford Relief and Emergency Assistance Act ( P.L. Emergency declarations may be declared before an incident occurs to save lives and prevent loss. The average number of major disasters declared per year from 1953 to 2016 was 35.8. During the 1990s the average number of major disaster declarations per year was 45.8, the average number from 2000 to 2009 was 57.1, and the average number from 2010 to 2016 was 58.7 (see inset of Figure 5 ). Major Disaster Declarations by State and Type

The majority of incidents declared as major disasters are issued as a result of a flood, tornado, winter storm, or hurricane (see inset of Figure 6 ). These include changes in (1) federal legislation and (2) various FEMA declaration policies. On the other hand, it could be argued that while a President may be motivated to issue a declaration or be reluctant to deny a declaration for political reasons, it is at best a small factor. Election year impacts are also found. Changes in State Policies and Circumstances

In addition to the federal elements that may have played a role in the increases in major disaster declarations, there are a number of state-level factors that have made the states more likely to request a declaration than in years past. However, they may argue that the increase in the number of declarations being issued is justified because the declarations are tied to increased inclement weather, population growth, and development. Changes to the Stafford Act

The following section discusses some potential changes to the Stafford Act that might limit the number of declarations being issued each year or the amount of assistance provided to the state by the federal government. Concluding Observations

Given the variables described in this report that can lead to an increase in the number of declarations, including trends in severe weather patterns, population growth, and development, the upward trend of declarations will likely continue if declarations policies remain unchanged. Some may contend that the policy mechanisms used to address the number of declarations should be shaped in response to the causes of the increase. Another method would be shifting a greater share of the responsibility for providing assistance from the federal government to states and localities. The approach to reduce declarations might shift somewhat if the increase in declarations and their costs is due primarily to federal policies. Finally, as mentioned throughout this report, a combination of all of the above could be implemented. At the heart of the declaration phenomenon is the role of the government when a disaster strikes. While it is generally agreed that the government should help disaster victims in time of need, it is debatable whether the fiscal responsibility resides primarily with the federal or the state government. Many of the policy options described in this report would shift a greater share of disaster-related costs to states and localities. It remains to be seen if reducing declarations and/or limiting the amount of disaster assistance provided to requesting states would severely disrupt the state's ability to recover from an incident or if states would be able to adjust to the changes by reallocating available state resources.
The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act authorizes the President to issue declarations that provide states, tribes, and localities with a range of federal assistance in response to natural and man-made incidents. Since 1953 the frequency of declarations has increased. For example, the average number of major disaster declarations issued from 1960 to 1969 was roughly 18.6 per year. In contrast, the average number of major disaster declarations issued from 2000 to 2009 was 57.1 per year. The highest number was declared in 2011, with 97 major disaster declarations.
Declarations are of concern to Members of Congress and state delegations when incidents occur in their states and/or congressional districts. Declarations are also of broader congressional interest for at least two reasons: (1) the costs involved with the federal assistance provided by the declarations, and (2) concerns that declarations may be used as political tools—especially during election years.
Analysis of Stafford Act declarations from 1953 to 2016 demonstrates that:
most emergency declarations are for winter storms and hurricanes; most major disaster declarations are for floods, tornados, winter storms, and hurricanes; the average number of declarations issued per year in presidential election years from 1974 to 2016 is slightly higher than the average number of declarations in other years from 1974 to 2016, but the number is not significant enough to draw a decisive conclusion regarding their use as a political tool.
After providing an overview of each type of declaration, this report discusses factors that may be responsible for the increase in frequency of declarations, including federal policy changes, increases in severe weather incidents, population growth, and development.
Some may contend that declaration policies should not be changed because they trigger important federal assistance to states and localities. Others argue that policies should be implemented to reduce either the number of declarations being issued each year, or the amount of federal assistance that they provide, or both. These policies include
amending certain Stafford Act policies; changing the per capita threshold formula used to recommend the issuance of a declaration; implementing a state capacity indicator to assess whether the state is capable of addressing an incident on its own; substituting federal loans to states for recovery grants; and adjusting the federal to state cost-share.
Such changes could reduce declarations and shift a portion of the funding back to the states. On the other hand, reducing declarations could hamper the ability of states and localities to recover from an incident and could create long-term consequences.
The selected approach will likely be influenced by how policymakers view the role of the government when a disaster strikes. It is generally agreed that the government should help disaster victims in times of need, but it is debatable whether the fiscal responsibility resides primarily with the federal or the state government. Many of the policy options described in this report shift a greater share of disaster-related costs to states and localities. It remains to be seen if reducing declarations and/or limiting the amount of disaster assistance provided to requesting states would severely disrupt the state's ability to respond and recover from an incident.
This report concludes that the upward trend in declarations will likely continue if declaration policies remain unchanged and severe weather patterns, population growth, and development continue to increase. All of these variables appear to play a role in declaration activity. It could be argued that the policy mechanisms used to address the increase in declarations should be shaped in response to the given variable or variables. This may prove to be difficult because it is unclear which of the variables (or combination of variables) has had the greatest impact on the increase in disaster declarations over the years.
This report will be updated as events warrant.