Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

			Objectives

The objectives of this report are (1) to identify policy-related information needs for immigration flow and other key demographic concepts that are relevant to migration; (2) to identify federal statistics on the flow of immigrants (and information gaps) and to determine what is known about the quality of existing statistics on flow; (3) to identify federal statistics relevant to other key demographic categories and to determine what is known about their quality; and (4) to identify strategies for improving immigration statistics. Policy-Related Information Needs

A basic typology of policy-relevant statistical information on the resident foreign-born population can be defined by combining two dimensions: one consisting of four demographic concepts that are relevant to migration (flow, size of the foreign-born population, net change in size, and emigration) and the other consisting of legal statuses (legal permanent residents, refugees and asylees, persons permitted to reside here on a temporary basis, illegal immigrants, and naturalized citizens). • Administrative data undercount persons granted asylum as well as those attaining naturalized citizenship. The INS Yearbook also discusses the sources of these data and some of their limitations. Conclusions

For informed decisions on immigration issues, policymakers need information on immigration flow, by legal status. INS records that are maintained for administrative purposes describe the number of new legal permanent residents (green-card holders), new refugees and asylees, and new naturalized citizens. As reported in the Yearbook, however, these statistics are limited by (1) conceptual problems and confused reporting, (2) undercounts, and (3) information gaps. • The number of new asylees is an undercount, because the Yearbook tally omits certain categories of persons, such as those who are granted asylum on appeal. Turning to relevant demographic concepts other than flow, statistics are reported in a more scattered fashion; indeed, a variety of INS and Bureau of the Census publications, including the INS Web page, must be accessed. INS has made efforts to fill gaps for some legal statuses by using the limited data that are available and creating assumption-based models. We identified or developed strategies that might improve immigration statistics. Specifically, we devised a new method for collecting survey data on the legal status of foreign-born respondents. We also identified strategies for evaluating survey data on the foreign- born. To reduce the uncertainty associated with statistical estimates of relevant demographic concepts other than immigration flow, fill information gaps for specific legal statuses, and address fragmented reporting, we recommend that the Commissioner of INS and the Director of the Bureau of the Census together • devise a plan of joint research for evaluating the quality of census and survey data on the foreign-born; further develop, test, and evaluate the three-card method that we devised for surveying the foreign-born about their legal status; and • either publish a joint report or closely coordinate reports that present information on population size, net change, and emigration.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO identified: (1) policy-related information needs for immigration statistics; (2) federal statistics (and information gaps) on the full range of demographic concepts relevant to immigration policy decisions, including what is known about the quality of those statistics; and (3) strategies for improving statistics.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) Congress periodically makes decisions about numerous immigration policies; (2) thus, informed decisionmaking by congressional committees and members of Congress as well as interested members of the general public, requires information on immigration flow, by legal status; (3) Congress also decides on the eligibility of the foreign-born for government benefits and services--with different benefits typically allowed or restricted for different categories of the foreign-born population; (4) GAO identified 33 discrete categories of demographic information that could be relevant to congressional decisionmaking; (5) information on immigration flow is reported in annual Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) Statistical Yearbooks; (6) statistics on demographic categories other than flow are reported in a more scattered fashion; indeed, a variety of INS and Bureau of the Census publications, including the INS Web page, must be accessed in order to retrieve basic information; (7) INS records that are maintained for administrative purposes are the basis for most federal statistics on flow; (8) these statistics describe the number of new legal permanent residents, new refugees and asylees, and new naturalized citizens; (9) as reported in the INS Yearbook, however, these statistics are limited by conceptual problems and confused reporting, undercounts, and information gaps; (10) the number of new asylees--persons granted asylum--and the number of persons granted citizenship are undercounted in the Yearbook tallies because the data omit certain groups of persons; (11) statistics for other demographic categories are not available; (12) while Census provides some information on the size of the resident foreign-born population, annual net change in size, and emigration, Census has not quantitatively evaluated these data with respect to coverage, accuracy of reported place of birth, or nonresponse rates; (13) there are no separate Census data on legal status because none of the surveys ask questions about legal status; (14) INS has made efforts to fill information gaps for some legal statuses by using the limited data that are available and creating assumption-based models; (15) GAO attempted to identify existing strategies or develop new ones to improve immigration statistics; (16) GAO devised a new method for collecting survey data on the legal status of foreign-born respondents; and (17) GAO also identified strategies for evaluating survey data on the foreign-born.