Status of the Growth Strategy

Amtrak has been unsuccessful in implementing its Network Growth Strategy. About 2 years after announcing the Network Growth Strategy, Amtrak has cancelled 9 of the 15 planned route actions without implementing them. Amtrak implemented three route actions, although it cancelled one of these in September 2001. Amtrak Overestimated Expected Mail and Express Revenue

Amtrak told us that it cancelled six of the Network Growth Strategy routes before they were implemented, in part, because it overestimated expected increases to mail and express revenue under the Network Growth Strategy. Amtrak said that there were several reasons why this overestimation occurred. Finally, Amtrak officials told us that express shippers were reluctant to enter into contracts for service that did not yet exist. Quick agreement was necessary because Amtrak wanted to implement the new routes and services to help it reach operational self- sufficiency by December 2002. However, Amtrak was largely unable to gain freight railroads’ agreement. Other freight railroads we contacted were similarly wary of Amtrak’s plans to use its route and service expansion to increase express business that could potentially compete with their own. Conclusions

Amtrak’s Network Growth Strategy has been unsuccessful because it overestimated (1) revenues expected from new mail and express service and (2) its ability to reach agreement with freight railroads over capital funding and other implementation issues. Amtrak said that it has improved it revenue estimation process. Amtrak also stated that (1) it needed to act quickly to reach operational self-sufficiency within 3 years, (2) the purpose of the Network Growth Strategy was to implement route and service changes that would more than cover their operating costs and therefore contribute to achieving operational self-sufficiency, and (3) not every route and service change requires lengthy negotiations.
What GAO Found

In light of its continuing financial deterioration and its stated goal of eliminating federal operating assistance by December 2002, Amtrak undertook several steps to improve its financial condition, including changing in its routes and services. Amtrak has been unsuccessful in implementing its Network Growth Strategy to shift its route and service plans for new routes and expanded services on the freight tracks over which it operates. Two years after announcing the new strategy, Amtrak has only implemented three routes, one of which was later canceled. Amtrak still plans to implement the remaining three routes, although later than planned. Increased mail and express revenues were the cornerstone of the new strategy. However, Amtrak overestimated the mail and express revenue expected. According to Amtrak, this overestimation occurred because (1) it had no empirical basis for its revenue estimates and (2) express shippers were reluctant to enter into contracts for service that did not yet exist. Six of the planned route actions were canceled because Amtrak overestimated the revenues associated with them. Amtrak was unable to reach agreement with freight railroads because they were concerned about (1) Amtrak's plans to operate additional trains in already congested areas, (2) Amtrak's plans to carry express merchandise that might compete with their own business, and (3) compensation that Amtrak would pay for use of their tracks.