Key Efforts Present the Bureau with Both Opportunities and Risks

Research on new methods likely to result in a more cost-effective 2020  Census must be accomplished early enough in the decade to confirm  their likely impact on both cost and quality and to inform timely design  decisions. The use of the Internet as a response option, a potential move  towards targeted address canvassing, and the possible use of  administrative records to replace data collected during census field  operations present the Bureau with opportunities to reduce costs while  maintaining a high quality census. However, the Bureau has not developed mitigation and  contingency plans for the project-level risks. Also, the Bureau has not  developed cost estimates for any of its 2020 research and testing projects  as required in guidance provided to project teams. For example, not all project  plans identified the necessary staff resources, while other project plans  failed to provide performance metrics for measuring progress and for  determining the project’s final outcome. The second effort to improve the Bureau’s address and mapping  database is centered on the 2020 Research and Testing Program. Specifically, each of   that  the Bureau’s research and testing projects has its own risk registeridentifies and prioritizes the risks associated with that project, but no risk  mitigation or contingency plans have been developed for these project- level risks. Several risks appear in multiple project team risk registers,  including tight time frames and accurate cost information. For example,  some project teams did not fully document the types of skills needed, or  perform a skills gap assessment to determine the resources needed to  carry out their respective projects as required in the Bureau’s planning  template (the template lays out in detail what is to be included in the  deliverables). According to Bureau officials, they are working to document these skills  sets, as well as any gaps. Completing this analysis is important to  ensuring sufficient resources are available for conducting the research  and testing projects. We also found incomplete performance metric documentation for several  projects. However, the “Enhancing Demographic  Analysis” team that is researching the use of administrative records to  assess the accuracy of census counts at the national level did not provide  any of the required performance metrics, while six teams failed to  include performance metrics that could be used to monitor research and  testing progress. Absent  such metrics, the Bureau does not have the assurance that it will be able  to avoid potential slips in the research and testing schedule, or certainty  as to whether project outcomes will be adequate for making decisions. Recommendations for Executive Action

We recommend that the Acting Secretary of Commerce require the Under  Secretary for Economic Affairs who oversees the Economics and  Statistics Administration, as well as the Acting Director of the U.S.  Census Bureau, to take the following three actions to improve the  Bureau’s Research and Testing for the 2020 Census, and thus better  position the Bureau to carry out a cost-effective decennial census:
Develop risk mitigation and contingency plans for all projects to  ensure that risks are adequately managed to minimize their effect on  the project. Develop cost estimates for each project. The Bureau also agrees with our recommendations to ensure that  performance metrics and skill sets are identified for all projects and  teams. Key contributors to  this report are located in appendix V.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

This report evaluates the U.S. Census Bureau’s (Bureau) efforts to  improve the cost-effectiveness of the enumeration, paying particular  attention to the following three key efforts that past Bureau research has  shown could result in substantial cost savings: (1) leveraging the Internet  to increase self-response; (2) improving how the Bureau builds its  address and mapping databases, including a possible move to targeted  address canvassing, and use of private-sector geographic data; and (3)  using administrative records, such as tax data, to reduce nonresponse  follow-up costs. To meet our objectives of identifying what opportunities  and risks, if any, the Bureau might need to consider for these efforts  going forward, and examining to what extent these three efforts are on  track with respect to scheduling, resources, and other performance  metrics, we reviewed Bureau documents pertaining to the early planning  of the 2020 Census.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO's prior work has shown that it will be important for the Bureau to reexamine the design of the census in order to ensure a cost effective census in 2020. As requested, this report evaluates the Bureau's efforts to improve the cost-effectiveness of the enumeration, paying particular attention to the following three key efforts: (1) leveraging the Internet to increase self-response; (2) improving how the Bureau builds its address and mapping databases, including a possible move to targeted address canvassing, and use of private-sector geographic data; (3) and using administrative records to reduce nonresponse follow-up costs. This report (1) identifies what opportunities and risks, if any, the Bureau might need to consider for these efforts going forward and (2) examines to what extent these three efforts are on track with respect to scheduling, resources, and other performance metrics. To meet these objectives, GAO reviewed Bureau documents and interviewed officials.

What GAO Found

According to U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) officials, to inform timely design decisions, research on new methods to improve the cost effectiveness of the 2020 Census must be accomplished early enough in the decade to confirm their likely impact on both cost and quality. Three key efforts--(1) the use of the Internet as a response option, (2) a potential move towards targeted address canvassing, and (3) the possible use of administrative records to replace data collected during census field operations--present the Bureau with potential opportunities to reduce costs while maintaining quality. The Bureau's 2020 Research and Testing Program has 14 fiscal year 2012 projects focused on informing design decisions related to the three key efforts. Bureau officials are also aware that the changes they are testing come with many risks, and for each project the Bureau has identified a number of risks and prioritized them from high to low. However, the Bureau has not developed mitigation or contingency plans for these project risks. For example, there are several risks, including tight time frames and accurate cost information, without mitigation and contingency plans. Additionally, GAO found that the Bureau had not developed cost estimates for any of its 2020 research and testing projects as required in guidance provided to project teams. Unreliable cost estimates was one of the reasons the 2010 Census was placed on GAO's high-risk list. Without timely cost estimates, it will be difficult for the Bureau to ensure that resources are adequate to support the research and testing program.
The Bureau met its internal deadline for submitting each of its 14 research project's plans and charters. However, not all the project plans were complete. For example, some project teams did not fully document the types of skills needed or perform a skills gap assessment to determine the resources needed to carry out their respective projects as required in the Bureau's planning template. According to Bureau officials, they are working to document these skills sets, as well as any gaps in skills. Completing this analysis is important to ensuring sufficient resources are available for conducting the research and testing projects. Additionally, performance metric documentation for several projects was incomplete. According to Bureau guidance, project teams were to provide performance metrics for measuring progress and for determining the project's final outcome. However, one team did not provide either of these required performance metrics, while six other teams did not include performance metrics that could be used to monitor research and testing progress. Absent these metrics, the Bureau does not have the assurance that it will be able to avoid potential schedule slips or the certainty as to whether project outcomes will be adequate for making decisions.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Acting Census Director take a number of actions to improve the Bureau's research and testing for the 2020 Census, such as developing risk mitigation plans, contingency plans and cost estimates for each project, and performance metrics and skill sets for those projects that do not have them. The Department of Commerce concurred with GAO's findings and recommendations and provided one clarification, which was included in the final report. Also, the Bureau in its comments noted that it has begun to address GAO's recommendations.