NOAA is also planning the next generation of satellites, known as the  GOES-R series, which are planned for launch beginning in 2014. However, this change has  delayed a key decision to proceed with the acquisition, which was planned  for September 2007. Further, independent estimates are higher than the  program’s current $7 billion cost estimate and convey a low level of  confidence in the program’s schedule for launching the first satellite by  2014. As NOAA works to reconcile the independent estimate with its own  program office estimate, costs are likely to grow and schedules are likely  to be delayed. NOAA is Taking Steps to Address Key Risks, but More Remains to Be Done

To address cost, schedule, and technical risks, the GOES-R program  established a risk management program and has taken steps to identify  and mitigate selected risks. Specifically, the program has  multiple risk watchlists and they are not always consistent. Further, key  risks are missing from the risks lists, including risks associated with  unfilled executive positions, limitations in NOAA’s insight into NASA’s  deliverables, and insufficient funding for unexpected costs (called  management reserve) on a critical sensor. As a result, the GOES-R  program is at increased risk that problems will not be identified or  mitigated in a timely manner and that they could lead to program cost  overruns and schedule delays. As another example, the program office  considers the lack of an integrated master schedule to be its highest  priority risk. Implementation of GAO Recommendations Should Improve NOAA’s Ability to Effectively Manage the GOES-R Procurement

To improve NOAA’s ability to effectively manage the procurement of the  GOES-R system, we recommended in our accompanying report that the  Secretary of Commerce direct the Undersecretary of Commerce for  Oceans and Atmosphere to take the following two actions:    Ensure that the GOES-R program office manages, mitigates, and  reports on risks using a program-level risk list that is reconciled with  and includes risks from its flight and operations project offices that  could impact the overall program. Over the last  year, NOAA has completed preliminary design studies of its GOES-R  system and decided to separate the space and ground elements of the  program into two contracts and have NASA oversee the system integration  effort. However, independent studies show that the program’s cost could  increase by about $2 billion and that the first launch could be delayed by  at least 2 years.
Why GAO Did This Study

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R series (GOES-R). This new series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to summarize its report on the GOES-R series. This report (1) assesses the status and revised plans for the GOES-R procurement and (2) evaluates whether NOAA is adequately mitigating key technical and programmatic risks facing the program. To conduct this review, GAO analyzed contractor and program data and interviewed officials from NOAA and NASA.

What GAO Found

NOAA has made progress in planning its GOES-R procurement--which is estimated to cost $7 billion and scheduled to have the first satellite ready for launch in 2014--but cost and schedules are likely to grow. Specifically, the agency completed preliminary design studies of GOES-R and recently decided to separate the space and ground elements of the program into two separate development contracts. However, this change in strategy has delayed a planned September 2007 decision to proceed with the acquisition. Further, independent estimates are higher than the program's current cost estimate and convey a low level of confidence in the program's schedule. Independent studies show that the estimated program could cost about $2 billion more, and the first satellite launch could be delayed by 2 years. As NOAA works to reconcile the independent estimate with its own program office estimate, costs are likely to grow and schedules are likely to be delayed. To address cost, schedule, and technical risks, the GOES-R program has established a risk management program and has taken steps to mitigate selected risks. For example, as of July 2007, the program office identified the lack of an integrated master schedule to be its highest priority risk and established plans to bring this risk to closure. However, more remains to be done to fully address risks. Specifically, the program has multiple risk watchlists that are not always consistent and key risks are missing from the watchlists, including risks associated with unfilled executive positions, limitations in NOAA's insight into NASA's deliverables, and insufficient funds for unexpected costs--called management reserves. As a result, the GOES-R program is at risk that problems will not be identified or mitigated in a timely manner and could lead to program cost overruns and schedule delays.