New Deficit: The Shortage of Information Technology Workers, examining the potential for shortages of IT workers. Information Technology: Assessment of the Commerce Department’s Report on Worker Demand and Supply 2005 (projected)

	Supply of IT Workers

Commerce identifies the supply of potential IT workers as the number of students graduating with bachelor’s degrees in computer and information sciences. The introduction to the report stated that evidence suggests that job growth in information technology fields now exceeds the production of talent. Commerce reported that between 1994 and 2005, an annual average of 95,000 new systems analysts, computer scientists and engineers, and computer programmers will be required to satisfy the increasing demand for IT workers and that only 24,553 students earned bachelor’s degrees in computer and information sciences in 1994. Because there is a disparity between these two numbers, Commerce concluded that it will be difficult to meet the demand for IT workers. Commerce’s Conclusions in the Report

Commerce’s conclusions about the IT workforce are inconsistently reported in separate segments of its report. First, the title of the report states that America’s new deficit is a shortage of information technology workers. However, the report notes that current statistical frameworks and mechanisms for measuring labor supply do not allow for precise identification of IT worker shortages and, in its summary chapter, Commerce concludes that more information is needed to fully characterize the IT labor market. We agree with Commerce’s conclusion that more information and data are needed about the current and future IT labor market.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO discussed the Department of Commerce's report on the demand and supply of information technology (IT) workers.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) Commerce's report has serious analytical and methodological weaknesses that undermine the credibility of its conclusion that a shortage of IT workers exists; (2) however, the lack of support presented in this one report should not necessarily lead to a conclusion that there is no shortage; (3) instead, as the Commerce report states, additional information and data are needed to more accurately characterize the IT labor market now and in the future; (4) the report appears to appropriately establish that the demand for IT workers is expected to grow, but it does not adequately describe the likely supply of IT workers; (5) although Commerce reported that only 24,553 U.S. students earned bachelor's degrees in computer and information sciences in 1994, Commerce also stated the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects increasing job growth--an annual average of 95,000 new computer programmers, systems analysts and computer scientists and engineers will be required to satisfy the increasing demand for IT workers between 1994 and 2005; (6) pointing to the disparity between these two numbers and referring to evidence from other sources, Commerce concludes in the report's title and introduction that there is a shortage of IT workers; (7) Commerce did not, however, consider other likely sources of workers, such as college graduates with degrees in other areas; and (8) as a result, rather than supporting its conclusion that a shortage of IT workers exists, the data and analysis support the report's observation that more needs to be known about the supply and demand for IT workers.