On the basis of subsequent discussions with subcommittee staff, our specific objectives were to assess: (1) the agency’s strategy for procuring continuation series satellites, (2) what steps the agency should be taking now to prepare for the next generation series of satellites, and (3) whether the potential exists for improving the system and reducing costs in the long term. Issues in NOAA’s Planning to Ensure Continuous GOES Coverage

Based on the best available analysis, the potential for a gap in geostationary satellite weather coverage will be significant in the early years of the next century if procurement of new satellites does not begin soon. Accordingly, NOAA plans to procure at least two “continuation series” spacecraft that will carry the same meteorological instruments as the current spacecraft and incorporate only limited technical improvements. We identified several shortcomings in NOAA’s spacecraft planning process that, if remedied, could lead to better planning in the future. Conclusions

Given the importance of maintaining continuous geostationary weather coverage, NOAA’s decision to immediately begin procuring two to four continuation series spacecraft through a competitively bid, firm fixed-price contract is reasonable. Current usage of GOES data by weather forecasters suggests that a reexamination of the GOES satellite architecture is warranted. Before a decision can be made about what kind of follow-on satellite system to build, an updated analysis of user needs is necessary. Several new approaches and technologies for geostationary satellite meteorology have been suggested in recent years by government, academic, and industry experts. Identifying and evaluating options will require thorough engineering analysis. In addition, past NOAA experience shows that developing new technologies is done most efficiently as a separate line of effort, outside of the operational satellite program. Such an effort would benefit from greater collaboration with NASA, whose expertise and support have, in the past, significantly contributed to the development of NOAA’s weather satellite systems. NOAA Has Studied Only Incremental Enhancements to the Current Architecture

Based on the President’s fiscal year 1998 budget, NOAA does not plan to begin a follow-on GOES program until fiscal year 2003 at the earliest. Clearly, there are drawbacks to the small satellite architecture as well as advantages. This analysis should be provided to the Congress for its use in considering options for the future of the GOES program. Furthermore, the longer that NOAA continues without actively considering other options for a future system, the more it risks having to procure additional continuation series satellites, because the availability date for a fully developed new satellite system will slip farther into the future.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) management of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Program, focusing on: (1) NOAA's strategy for procuring satellites in the GOES continuation series; (2) what steps NOAA should be taking now to prepare for the next generation series of satellites; and (3) whether the potential exists for improving the system and reducing costs in the long term.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) based on the best available analysis, the potential for a gap in geostationary satellite coverage will be significant in the early years of the next century if procurement of new satellites does not begin soon; (2) to prevent this problem, NOAA plans to competitively procure two to four continuation series spacecraft that will carry the same meteorological instruments as the current spacecraft and incorporate modest technical improvements; (3) the satellites are planned for launch beginning in 2002; (4) given the importance of maintaining continuous geostationary weather coverage, NOAA's plans are reasonable; (5) however, there are inherent difficulties in determining exactly when and how many of the continuation series spacecraft will be needed; (6) despite these difficulties, GAO identified several specific shortcomings in NOAA's spacecraft planning process that, if remedied, could improve planning in the future; (7) based on the President's fiscal year (FY) 1998 budget, NOAA does not plan to begin a follow-on GOES program until FY 2003 at the earliest; (8) given that the opportunity now exists to consider alternatives for a follow-on system, current usage of GOES data by weather forecasters suggests that a reexamination of the GOES satellite architecture is warranted; (9) before a decision can be made about what kind of follow-on satellite system to build, an updated analysis of user needs must be completed; (10) several new approaches and technologies for geostationary satellite meteorology have been suggested in recent years by government, academic, and industry experts, however, identifying and evaluating the full range of options will require thorough engineering analysis; (11) in addition, past NOAA experience shows that developing new technologies is done most efficiently as a separate line of effort, outside of the operational satellite program; (12) such an effort would benefit from greater collaboration with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, whose expertise and support have, in the past, significantly contributed to the development of NOAA's weather satellite systems; (13) the longer that NOAA continues without actively considering other options for a future system, the more it risks having to procure additional continuation series satellites, because the availability date for a fully developed new satellite system will slip farther into the future; and (14) the potential advantages of advanced technologies and small satellite constellations as well as questions about changing user requirements suggest that alternatives to the present architecture should be seriously considered.