In January  2008, NOAA approved a key decision milestone that allowed the program  to move from the preliminary design and definition phase to the  development phase of the acquisition life cycle. After reconciling the program office’s cost  estimate of $7 billion with the independent cost estimate of about $9 billion, the  agency established a new program cost estimate of $7.67 billion. This is an  increase of $670 million from the previous estimate. Further delays in the launch of the first GOES-R satellite would run  counter to NOAA’s policy of having a backup satellite in orbit at all times  and could lead to gaps in satellite coverage. If NOAA experiences a  problem with either of its operational satellites before a backup satellite is  in orbit, it will need to rely on older decommissioned satellites that may  not be fully functional. The GOES-R Program Office Has Taken Steps to Address Lessons Learned from Other Satellite Programs, but Important Actions Remain

GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite programs,  but important actions remain to be completed. Specifically, the agency    conducted preliminary studies on the technologies to be used on the    awarded contracts for the preliminary design of the planned instruments  and the overall GOES-R system;    awarded instrument development contracts that include provisions to  develop prototypes or engineering models before the flight units for each  instrument are developed;    conducted a major review of the Advanced Baseline Imager before the    certified that the technology for the spacecraft and ground segments was  mature before awarding the contracts;  removed the Hyperspectral Environmental Suite from the GOES-R series  after preliminary studies showed that it was technically complex;    established independent review teams responsible for assessing the  program’s technical, programmatic, and management risks on an annual  basis to ensure sufficient technical readiness prior to the critical design  review milestone; and    established processes for reviewing the maturity and readiness of  algorithms for each of the products. However, key technology risks remain—affecting both the ground  segment and the instruments. NOAA Plans to Address Requirements for Current Products but Has Not Developed Plans for Meeting Requirements for Advanced Products

The Hyperspectral Environmental Suite instrument was originally planned  as part of the GOES-R satellite to meet requirements for products that are  currently produced by GOES satellites (such as temperature and moisture  profiles at different atmospheric levels), as well as new technically- advanced products (such as moisture fluctuations and ocean color) that  are not currently produced by GOES satellites. NOAA still considers these requirements to be valid. Doing so would include  justifying the funding for any new initiatives within the agency’s  investment decision process. Until a decision is made on whether and how  to proceed in providing the advanced products, key system users such as  the National Weather Service will not be able to meet their goals for  improving the lead times or accuracy of severe weather warnings,  including warnings for tornadoes and hurricanes. Further, climate  research organizations will not obtain the data they need to enhance the  science of climate, coastal, environmental, and oceanic observations. In addition, recent events make it likely that schedules will  continue to slip. The  program did not perform a comprehensive review after rebaselining a  critical instrument—the Advanced Baseline Imager—and has not  documented the reasons for all cost overruns. Until these issues are  addressed, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-R program will  repeat the cost increases, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls that  have plagued other satellite programs. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) determine the status of the Geostationary  Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) program, (2)  evaluate whether the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s  (NOAA) plans for the GOES-R acquisition address problems experienced  on similar programs, and (3) determine whether NOAA’s plan to address  the capabilities that were planned for the satellites, but then removed, will  be adequate to support current data requirements. We also interviewed NOAA  and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) officials from  the GOES-R program office.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with the aid of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), plans to procure the next generation of geostationary operational environmental satellites, called the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R). GOES-R is to replace the current series of satellites, which will likely begin to reach the end of their useful lives in approximately 2014. This series is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting through the year 2028. GAO was asked to (1) determine the status of the GOES-R program, (2) evaluate whether plans for the acquisition address problems experienced on similar programs, and (3) determine whether NOAA's plan will be adequate to support current data requirements. To do so, GAO analyzed contractor and program data and interviewed officials from NOAA and NASA.

What GAO Found

NOAA has made progress on the GOES-R acquisition, but the program's cost, schedule, and scope have changed. The GOES-R program has moved into the development phase of its acquisition life cycle. It has awarded development contracts for the instruments and plans to award contracts for the spacecraft and ground segments by mid-2009. However, after reconciling program and independent cost estimates, the program established a new cost estimate of $7.67 billion--a $670 million increase from the prior $7 billion estimate. The program also reduced the number of products the satellites will produce from 81 to 34 and slowed the delivery of these products in order to reduce costs. More recently, the program also delayed key milestones, including the launch of the first satellite, which was delayed from December 2014 to April 2015. Such delays could lead to gaps in satellite coverage if NOAA experiences problems with its current operational satellites before a backup satellite is in orbit. GOES-R has taken steps to address lessons from other satellite programs, but important actions remain to be completed. NOAA has made progress in its efforts to address prior lessons by taking steps to ensure technical readiness on key components, using an acceptable cost estimating approach, implementing techniques to enhance contractor oversight, and regularly briefing agency executives. However, technical challenges remain on both the ground segment and the instruments. In addition, the program did not perform a comprehensive review after rebaselining a critical instrument, and it has not documented all of the reasons for cost overruns. Until these issues are addressed, NOAA faces an increased risk that the GOES-Rprogram will repeat the same mistakes that have plagued other satellite programs. NOAA has a plan to meet some, but not all, data requirements. An instrument that was originally planned as part of the GOES-R satellite was to meet requirements for 15 products that are currently produced, as well as 11 new, technically advanced, products. When NOAA removed this instrument from the GOES-R satellite program, it arranged to obtain the current products from another instrument. However, the agency has not developed plans or a timeline to address the requirements for the new products. Doing so would include justifying the funding for any new initiatives within the agency's investment decision process. Until a decision is made on whether and how to proceed in providing the advanced products, key system users, such as weather forecasters, will not be able to meet their goals for improving the accuracy of severe weather warnings. Further, climate research organizations will not obtain the data they need to enhance the science of climate, environmental, and oceanic observations.