To enable DOD to close unneeded bases and realign others, Congress enacted base closure and realignment (BRAC) legislation that instituted base closure rounds in 1988, 1991, 1993, and 1995. BRAC has afforded DOD the opportunity to reduce its infrastructure and free funds for high priority programs such as weapons modernization and force readiness. In preparing the estimates, DOD guidance to the military services and defense agencies states that the estimates are to be based on the best projection of what savings will actually accrue from approved realignments and closures. DOD now estimates a net savings of about $15.5 billion through fiscal year 2001, an increase of $1.3 billion from the previously reported $14.2 billion. Overall, DOD has reduced its cost estimates from fiscal year 1999 to fiscal year 2001 for implementing BRAC by about $723 million and increased its savings estimates by about $610 million, resulting in a net savings increase of $1.3 billion. Table 1 summarizes the cumulative cost and savings estimates through fiscal year 2001 for the four BRAC rounds as reflected in DOD's fiscal years 1999 and 2001 BRAC budget requests and documentation, along with associated changes in the various costs and savings categories. In addition to the estimates shown in table 1, DOD now reports annual estimated recurring savings of $6.1 billion beyond fiscal year 2001, an increase from approximately $5.6 billion that DOD reported in fiscal year 1999. Our analysis of the data shows that most, or about $313 million, of the environmental cost reduction occurred in the Navy BRAC account. Observations on Basis and Precision of BRAC Cost and Savings Estimates

Our prior work, along with work by others including the Congressional Budget Office, the DOD Inspector General, and the Army Audit Agency, has shown that BRAC savings are real and substantial, and are related to cost reductions in key operational areas as a result of BRAC actions. Nevertheless, we and others have consistently expressed the view that these factors are not significant enough to outweigh the fact that substantial savings are being generated from the closure process. In reports issued in November and December 1998, we concluded that, while closure and realignment savings for the four BRAC rounds would be substantial after initial costs were recouped, the estimates were imprecise.
Why GAO Did This Study

Through four rounds of base closures and realignments between 1988 and 1995, the Department of Defense (DOD) expected to reduce its domestic infrastructure and provide needed dollars for high priority programs, such as weapons modernization. Although DOD projects it will realize significant recurring savings from the closures and realignments, Congress continues to raise questions about how much, if any, money has been saved through the base closure process. Two GAO reports issued in late 1998 concluded that net savings from the four closure rounds were substantial but that the cost and savings estimates used to calculate the net savings were imprecise. This report reviews (1) the basis for DOD's recent increase in net savings projected to be realized from the closure process and (2) GAO's previous observations on the basis for savings from base closure and realignment actions and the precision of the cost and savings estimates.

What GAO Found

DOD's fiscal year 2001 budget request and documentation show that it now expects net savings of about $15.5 billion through fiscal year 2001 and about $6.1 billion in annual recurring savings thereafter, an increase from the $14.2 billion and about $5.6 billion, respectively, DOD reported in fiscal year 1999. GAO's analysis of the data showed that the net savings increase through fiscal year 2001 was due primarily to an overall reduction of about $723 million in reported costs and an increase of about $610 million in expected savings resulting from the closures. The net savings for the four rounds of base closures and realignments are substantial and are related to decreased funding requirements in specific operational areas. Reviews by the Congressional Budget Office, the DOD Inspector General, and the Army Audit Agency have affirmed that net savings are substantial after initial investment costs are recouped. However, those same reviews also showed that the estimates are imprecise and should be viewed as a rough approximation of the likely savings.