The NPOESS Program: Inception, Challenges, and Divergence

Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate  operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series, which is  managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program  (DMSP), which is managed by the Air Force. As a result  of this review, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy  announced in February 2010 that NOAA and DOD would no longer jointly  procure the NPOESS satellite system; instead, each agency would plan  and acquire its own satellite system. Prior GAO Work Evaluated Preliminary Plans for Separate NOAA and DOD Satellite Programs and Recommended Actions to Solidify Plans and Address Risks

In May 2010, we reported on NOAA’s and DOD’s preliminary plans for  initiating new environmental satellite programs and highlighted key  transition risks facing the agencies. At that time, NOAA had developed  preliminary plans for its new satellite acquisition program—called the  Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). In addition, NOAA planned to transfer the management of the satellite  acquisition from the NPOESS program office to NASA’s Goddard Space  Flight Center so that it could be co-located at a space system acquisition  center, as advocated by an independent review team. In our report, we noted that both agencies faced key risks in transitioning  from NPOESS to their separate programs. Among other things, we recommended that the Secretaries of Defense  and Commerce direct their respective NPOESS follow-on programs to  expedite decisions on the expected cost, schedule, and capabilities of  their planned programs and to direct their respective follow-on programs  to develop plans to address the key transition risks we identified. As  discussed below, the agencies have not yet fully implemented these  recommendations. NOAA and DOD Have Made Progress, but Decisions are Needed to Address Potential Gaps in Weather and Climate Data

Over the last year, NOAA and NASA have worked to establish the JPSS  program, to keep the NPP satellite’s development on track, and to begin  developing plans for the JPSS satellite. According to NOAA, a data gap would lead to less accurate and timely  weather prediction models used to support weather forecasting, and  advanced warning of extreme events—such as hurricanes, storm surges,  and floods—would be diminished. Given the potential for a gap in satellite data, NOAA officials are  considering whether to remove functionality from JPSS-1 in order to allow  it to be developed—and launched—more quickly. The DWSS program  will be comprised of two satellites—the first expected to be launched no  earlier than 2018. Each will have three sensors: a Visible/Infrared  Imager/Radiometer Suite, a Space Environment Monitor, and a  microwave imager/sounder. Although we recommended in May 2010 that DOD expedite decisions on  the cost, schedule, and capabilities of DWSS, DOD has not yet finalized  the functionality that will be provided by the DWSS program, or developed  a cost and schedule baseline. NOAA and DOD Continue to Face Key Transition Risks

Over a year ago, we identified key transition risks facing NOAA and DOD,  including the need to support the other agency’s requirements, ensure  effective oversight of new program management, manage cost and  schedule implications from contract and other program changes, and  ensure the availability of key staff and capabilities, and we recommended  that the agencies move to mitigate these risks. Today, the agencies  continue to face key risks in transitioning from NPOESS to their new  programs. The agency could not provide a time frame for  when it expects this issue to be resolved. As a result, it still is not  clear what the programs will deliver, when, and at what cost. Until both NOAA and DOD can develop and  finalize credible plans for their respective programs, and mitigate or  minimize the risks, neither agency’s users can plan for how to address  this gap.
Why GAO Did This Study

Environmental satellites provide critical data used in weather forecasting and measuring variations in climate over time. In February 2010, the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy disbanded the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)--a tri-agency satellite acquisition that had encountered continuing cost, schedule, and management problems--and instructed the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) to undertake separate acquisitions. Both agencies have begun planning their respective programs--the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and the Defense Weather Satellite System (DWSS)--including creating program offices and transitioning contracts. GAO was asked to summarize the status of ongoing work assessing (1) NOAA's and DOD's plans for their separate acquisitions and (2) the key risks in transitioning from NPOESS to these new programs. In preparing this statement, GAO relied on the work supporting previous reports, attended monthly program management meetings, reviewed documentation on both programs, and interviewed agency officials.

What GAO Found

In May 2010, GAO reported on the transition from NPOESS to two separate programs, and recommended that both NOAA and DOD expedite decisions on the cost, schedule, and capabilities of their respective programs. Since that time, both agencies have made progress on their programs, but neither has finalized its plans or fully implemented the recommendations. NOAA is currently focusing on the October 2011 launch of the NPOESS Preparatory Project satellite--a demonstration satellite that the agency now plans to use operationally in order to minimize potential gaps in coverage. In addition, NOAA has transferred contracts for satellite sensors from the NPOESS program to the JPSS program. However, NOAA officials stated that the agency slowed down the development of the first JPSS satellite due to budget constraints, causing a delay in the launch date. As a result, NOAA is facing a potential gap in satellite data continuity. Such a delay could significantly impact the nation's ability to obtain advanced warning of extreme weather events such as hurricanes. Meanwhile, DOD began planning for its satellite program. Department officials reported that DWSS is to consist of two satellites with three sensors: an imager, microwave imager/sounder, and a space environment sensor. The first satellite is to be launched no earlier than 2018. The department has not, however, finalized the cost, schedule, and functionality of the program. It expects to do so in early 2012. Until both NOAA and DOD develop and finalize credible plans for their respective programs, it will not be clear what the programs will deliver, when, and at what cost. In its prior report, GAO also recommended that NOAA and DOD establish plans to mitigate key risks in transitioning from NPOESS to the successor programs, including ensuring effective oversight of JPSS program management, and addressing cost and schedule implications from contract and program changes. Both agencies have taken steps to mitigate these risks, but more remains to be done. For example, NOAA could not provide firm time frames for completing its management control plan or addressing residual contracting issues. Moving forward, it will be important for the agencies to continue efforts to mitigate these risks in order to ensure the success of their respective programs.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making new recommendations in this statement.