The Air Force does not have total control over the allocation of its personnel. Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Because of congressional concerns about active duty personnel levels, we assessed (1) how the size and composition of the active Air Force has changed since 1986, (2) whether the Air Force has any shortages in meeting its wartime requirements, and (3) whether there is potential to reduce the active force further. To determine if the shortages identified by FORSIZE affected the Air Force ability to carry out the national military strategy, we interviewed Air Force headquarters functional managers to determine whether the shortages were in the forces that deploy to theaters of operation or in forces that sustain operations at bases in the United States. During this time, mission forces will be reduced at a much greater rate than infrastructure forces—47 percent compared to 30 percent. Infrastructure Forces Are Decreasing at a Slower Rate Than Mission Forces

Between fiscal year 1986 and 1997, the Air Force will reduce the number of active personnel in infrastructure functions from approximately 346,000 to 241,000, or by 30 percent. FORSIZE 95 identified an active wartime shortage of 19,585 personnel. Our report reflects that the Air Force has identified several ways to compensate for these wartime shortages. In addition, a preliminary air staff review of its infrastructure force has identified a potential to reduce the active force by as much as 75,000 beyond fiscal year 1998 by contracting out some functions now performed by military personnel and converting some military positions to civilian. Air Force Plans to Reduce Active Duty Personnel Below Congressional Floor in Fiscal Year 1998

On the basis of the Air Force’s fiscal year 1998 budget proposal provided to OSD, the Air Force plans to seek statutory authority to reduce its active military end strength to about 371,600 or 9,400 below the current congressional floor. Air Force officials stated the planned personnel reductions will not lessen the Air Force’s war-fighting capability, since they are primarily in infrastructure-related functions. Ongoing Air Force Studies Have Identified Potential to Further Reduce Active Personnel

The Air Force has not yet fully assessed the potential for substituting less costly civilian employees or contractors for some of the active duty personnel currently assigned to infrastructure activities. In a November 1996 letter to the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of the Air Force stated that DOD’s existing civilian workyear policy needs to be modified so the Air Force can achieve savings by replacing military personnel assigned to positions that are not military essential with civilians. We developed several options for consolidating the fighter force that would permit the Air Force to maintain the same number of aircraft but carry out its missions with fewer active duty personnel. Conclusions

Potential exists to replace active military personnel with contractors or civilian employees. The actual number of active military positions that could be eliminated depends on the results of several ongoing initiatives as well as senior Air Force leadership commitment to reduce infrastructure to fund force modernization.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO reviewed the Air Force's personnel reduction efforts, focusing on: (1) how the size and composition of the active Air Force has changed since 1986; (2) whether the Air Force has sufficient numbers of personnel to meet wartime requirements; and (3) whether there is potential to further reduce the active force that could result in a more efficient force.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) between fiscal year (FY) 1986 and 1997, the Air Force will reduce its active military personnel from over 600,000 to 381,100, or by 37 percent; (2) mission forces have been reduced at a much greater rate than infrastructure forces during the last decade; (3) as a result, approximately two-thirds of the Air Force's 381,100 active duty personnel are now allocated to infrastructure functions such as installation support and acquisition; (4) further, today's smaller force has a higher ratio of officers than in 1986; (5) potential exists to reduce the active Air Force below the 381,100 minimum level set by Congress, without adversely affecting the Air Force's war-fighting capability; (6) in May 1996, GAO suggested options to consolidate fighter squadrons which, if implemented, would permit the Air Force to maintain the same number of aircraft but carry out its missions with fewer active duty personnel; (7) GAO has also reported that the Air Force could achieve savings by replacing military personnel in some administrative and support positions with civilian employees; (8) for FY 1998, the Air Force plans to seek statutory authority to reduce the active force by about 9,400 below the current minimum; (9) GAO's analysis shows the majority of these planned decreases are in infrastructure functions; (10) prompted by the Secretary of Defense's goal to reduce infrastructure to free funds for force modernization, the Air Force has recently identified a potential to reduce the active force by as many as 75,000 additional military personnel beyond FY 1998; (11) the Air Force is reviewing options for replacing military personnel assigned to infrastructure functions with civilian employees or contractors that may be able to perform some functions at less cost than military personnel; (12) the actual number of active personnel that will ultimately be replaced will depend on the results of continuing Air Force analysis to determine whether such substitutions will be organizationally feasible and cost-effective; (13) the Air Force projects it would have an active wartime shortage of about 19,600 personnel if two major regional conflicts occurred; (14) however, the Air Force does not need additional active personnel to cover this wartime shortage because it has identified ways to compensate for the shortage; and (15) moreover, this shortage would present little risk in carrying out the military strategy since it primarily affects forces that would provide operating support for bases in the United States rather than in the forces that would deploy to war.