Accordingly, in preparation for the 2020 Census, the Bureau has been  researching and testing new methods and technologies to more cost- effectively count the population while maintaining high-quality results. The Bureau is also conducting  tests in 2015 that are expected to inform the design decision, including  the Address Validation Test, which was completed in early 2015 and  was used to examine new methods for updating the Bureau’s address  list; the 2015 Census Test, which is currently being conducted in Arizona  to test, among other things, reengineered non-response follow-up field  operations, as well as enabling enumerators to use their personally  owned mobile devices to collect census data; and the Optimizing Self Response Test, which is currently being  conducted in Savannah, Georgia, and the surrounding area and is  intended to further explore methods of encouraging households to  respond using the Internet, such as using advertizing and outreach to  motivate respondents, and enabling households to respond without a  Bureau-issued identification number. Key Challenges Need to Be Addressed before Potential Cost Savings Can Be Realized

The Bureau has been making important progress in researching and  testing various design options associated with four interrelated cost- savings initiatives: using data previously provided to the government to  help enumerate the population, updating the Bureau’s address list and  maps of the nation, only where needed, reengineering management of  field work, and maximizing self-response. In November 2013, we also reported on weaknesses in the  Bureau’s scheduling practices related to its address list development  activity. Reengineering the Management of Field Operations

The Bureau is researching and testing ways to more efficiently and  effectively manage its multiple field operations for the 2020 Census. In our February 2015 report, we recommended that the Bureau update  estimated costs for the Internet response option and ensure future cost  estimates are reliable, develop methodologies for answering key research  questions, and establish high-level time frames for cloud computing  decisions. For  example, the Bureau stated that it planned to revise the 2020 Census  cost estimate once the September 2015 design decision is made. Major 2020 Census Cost- Saving Initiatives Rely on, among Other Things, Effective Implementation of a Large and Complex IT Development Effort

In October 2014, the Bureau initiated an enterprise-wide IT initiative  called the Census Enterprise Data Collection and Processing (CEDCAP)  program, which is intended to deliver a “system of systems” to serve all of  the Bureau’s survey data collection and processing functions—rather than  continuing to build and maintain unique, survey-specific systems with  redundant capabilities. Most importantly for the 2020 Census, CEDCAP is  expected to deliver the systems and IT infrastructure needed to  implement the Bureau’s cost-savings initiatives. The Bureau has made progress in practices related to IT  governance and requirements management, but more work is needed to  address critical workforce gaps and information security. The Bureau has made progress in strengthening these areas in response  to recommendations we made in September 2012. The Bureau’s efforts to monitor the status  of its efforts to close these competency gaps will be critical to ensuring  the Bureau has the skills it needs to effectively deliver IT solutions for the  2020 Census. However, with only 3-and-a-half years remaining until the Bureau plans to  have all systems and processes for the 2020 Census developed and  ready for end-to-end system testing, the magnitude of the planned  changes, the Bureau’s prior track record, and existing challenges, the  2020 Census program faces significant risk. Moreover, the Bureau needs to take action to address the  specific challenges we have highlighted in prior reports. If these actions  are not taken, cost overruns, schedules delays, and performance  shortfalls may diminish the potentially significant cost savings that the  Bureau estimates will result from redesigning the census for 2020.
Why GAO Did This Study

The cost of the decennial census has steadily increased each decade, with the 2010 Census being the most costly in history, totaling approximately $13 billion. If the growth rate continues, the 2020 Census could cost approximately $25 billion (in constant 2010 dollars). In an effort to contain costs while continuing to ensure an accurate enumeration, the Bureau is researching and testing new methods and technologies.
This September, the Bureau plans to announce its preliminary design for the 2020 Census, and in October 2018 the Bureau plans to have all systems and processes for the 2020 Census developed and ready for operational testing. As Census Day 2020 gets closer, the margin for schedule slippages is becoming increasingly narrow.
GAO was asked to testify on the Bureau's progress in implementing cost-savings initiatives and associated challenges for the 2020 Census. To prepare this statement, GAO relied on its previously published work in this area over the last several years.

What GAO Found

The Census Bureau (Bureau) has research and testing efforts well under way to support reforming aspects of the 2020 Census in order to contain costs. The table below briefly describes the four main cost-saving initiatives and the Bureau's associated savings estimates.
However, the Bureau faces significant challenges and unanswered questions related to these initiatives and their associated cost savings. For example, the Bureau needs to finalize decisions on: the use of data records from other government agencies; more cost-effectively maintaining complete and accurate map and address data; and the use of technology to more efficiently manage field operations. The Bureau also needs to take action on GAO's recommendations to develop reliable cost estimates and time frames for key decisions related to deploying the Internet self-response option.
The successful execution of the 2020 Census also depends on the effective implementation of a large and complex information technology (IT) development effort. This effort—the Census Enterprise Data Collection and Processing program—is intended to result in an interconnected set of systems to serve all the Bureau's data collection and processing functions, including the systems and infrastructure needed to support the 2020 Census cost-savings initiatives. But as GAO has reported, the Bureau has not always prioritized key testing and research activities needed to inform IT system development. GAO has also previously found weaknesses in the Bureau's management of IT , and made recommendations to address them. In response, the Bureau has made important improvements in the areas of governance, system development methodologies, requirements management, and workforce planning. However, more work remains to ensure that it has the critical skills needed to effectively deliver IT solutions and that its systems and information are protected from unauthorized access or tampering.
The Bureau needs to take action to address the recommendations GAO has made in prior reports. If these actions are not taken, cost overruns, schedule delays, and performance shortfalls will likely diminish the potential cost savings that the Bureau estimates will result from redesigning the census for 2020.

What GAO Recommends

In its prior work, GAO made 121 recommendations to, among other things, assist the Bureau in planning for its Internet response option, completing key research and testing activities, and improving its IT management and security. The Bureau generally agreed with these recommendations.