Since it currently takes 10 years to "grow" or promote to the rank of major (from lieutenant to promotion to major) and 14 years if a major is an academy or ROTC graduate, this is not a problem that can be quickly nor easily solved as the Army continues to transform its force structure and, simultaneously, fight the Global War on Terror (GWOT). The Army currently projects an officer shortage of approximately 3,000 "line" officers in FY2007, a situation that worsens to 3,700 officers in FY2008 and continues to average more than 3,000 annually through FY2013. While a number of potential causes are reviewed, this report will focus on two: reduced officer accessions (the number of new lieutenants brought to active duty annually) during and after the drawdown of the early to mid-1990s, and the significant increase in officer requirements as the Army transforms to a "brigade-centric" force, a key element in the Army's Modular Force Initiative. This report assesses the extent of the Army officer shortfall, examines perceived causes, reviews recent retention initiatives, identifies other possible retention incentives, and concludes with a review of possible options for Congress. As a result, 82.6% of all requirements for the rank of major are projected to be filled, and the Army defines a personnel fill rate of 85% or less as a "critical" shortage. Officer shortages in excess of 3,000 annually are projected to persist through at least 2013. These shortages have been exacerbated by the growth of officer requirements as the Army has transformed its force structure. However, this does not appear to be the case. Deployment Tempo

With ongoing military operations in Iraq (Operation Iraqi Freedom) and Afghanistan (Operation Enduring Freedom), some would assume that this deployment tempo has negatively impacted officer retention. In summary, reduced accessions during and immediately following the drawdown in the 1990s and the increased officer requirements of the Modular Force Initiative appear to be the primary contributors to the current and projected shortage of captains and majors. Can Reserve Component Officers Be Used to Address the Shortage? The challenge for the Army would be in defining "critical skills" in terms of rank, branch, years of service, year group or some other criteria and then linking the appropriate bonus level to the number of years that the bonus will be paid.
The Army's enlisted recruiting shortfall in 2005 generated significant congressional and media interest, and served as the impetus for several legislative initiatives. However, until very recently, there has been little mention or visibility of potential shortages in the Army's officer corps. This problem is currently unique to the Army. While specific skill shortages and imbalances have been reported by the other services, only the Army is reflecting service-wide active component shortages.
The Army currently projects an officer shortage of nearly 3,000 in FY2007, with the most acute shortfalls in "senior" captains and majors with 11 to 17 years of experience. For example, the Army considers any personnel "fill rate" (the number of officers available to fill requirements) of less than 85% a "critical" shortage, and projects a fill rate of 82.6% for majors in FY2007.
The Army further projects an increased shortage of more than 3,700 officers the following year, and estimates that annual shortages in excess of 3,000 officers will persist through FY2013 unless accessions (the number of new lieutenants brought to active duty annually) can be increased and retention can be improved. It presently takes 10 years to "grow" a major (from lieutenant to promotion to major), and 14 years if that major is an academy or ROTC graduate. Therefore, the projected shortage appears to be a significant long-term challenge especially as the Army continues to transform and maintain a significant role in fighting the Global War on Terror (GWOT).
This report analyzes a number of potential factors contributing to the shortfall, especially the impact of reduced officer accessions during and after the Army personnel drawdown of the early 1990s, and the significant increase in Army officer requirements caused by the Army force structure transformation to a modular, brigade-centric force through its Modular Force Initiative. At this time, the high deployment tempo associated with Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) does not appear to be associated with these shortfalls.
Although the Army has already introduced several new programs to enhance officer retention, other possible options exist that could help address the Army's officer shortages. They include the possibility of officer retention bonuses. The Army does not pay any officer continuation or retention bonuses, with the exception of Aviation Career Incentive Pay.
This report will be updated as necessary.