Accordingly, Congress has been concerned about the countries and groups that have nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) weapons, are developing or trying to acquire them, and about those who have or seek missile delivery systems. Others emphasize the negative impact of the nuclear tests by India, Pakistan and North Korea; missile tests by North Korea, Iran, India, and Pakistan; continuing transfers of dangerous technology by states such as China, Russia, and North Korea; the activities of clandestine procurement networks; and a growing interest in NBC weapons among terrorists. In addition, the status and trends of these weapons are key factors in national and international debates regarding:
the character of the threat to U.S. security posed by nuclear, chemical and biological weapons delivered by terrorists, missiles, aircraft, or ships whether states or groups are acquiring NBC weapons and missiles to deter or to attack regional powers or the United States whether intelligence estimates should be based on the capability and/or intent of countries and terrorist groups to use NBC weapons and missiles whether U.S. intelligence collection and analysis resources are adequate whether the United States should emphasize a strategy of deterrence, preemption, or national defense the appropriate mix of defense (active and passive), export control, assistance, and arms control the appropriate mix of unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral approaches. Increasingly free flow of information, people and goods. The potential for additional countries, or possibly terrorist groups, to produce NBC weapons using available technology, has become a greater concern in recent years. Nuclear Weapon Arsenals and Programs

Five states are considered nuclear weapon states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Four of these countries have declared that they have stopped producing fissile material; China is believed to have stopped. Suspected Nuclear Weapons Programs

Iran has long been suspectedof pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The total number of nuclear warheads in the world will continue to decline over the next few decades as the United States and Russia reduce their stockpiles, even as the number of nations with nuclear weapons may increase. The nuclear inventories of China, India, and Pakistan are small, but all will probably be expanded. International trade in BW material, equipment, and technology remains a concern. It is expected that terrorist groups will continue their efforts to obtain a CW capability, and could be assisted in this by state sponsors of terrorism. Missile Arsenals and Programs

Nearly all countries that reportedly have or are seeking nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons also have ballistic missiles—four do not (Cuba, Sudan, Myanmar, Thailand). At least 25 other countries have short-range ballistic missiles with ranges under1000 km. Cruise missiles are more widely distributed. About 81 countries possess them, and 18 countries can manufacture them.
The United States has long recognized the dangers inherent in the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical (NBC) weapons, and missiles. This report, which analyzes NBC weapons programs potential threat patterns around the globe, is updated as needed.
The total number of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons in the world is shrinking as the major powers scale back their inventories through unilateral reductions and arms control, but other countries and groups still try to acquire these weapons. There are five established nuclear weapon states (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States). India and Pakistan declared their nuclear weapons capability with nuclear tests in 1998, as did North Korea in 2006. Israel is also widely believed to have a nuclear weapon arsenal.
About a dozen countries have offensive biological weapons (BW) programs, and the same number have chemical weapons (CW) programs. That number could grow, as new technologies are developed and the international flow of information, goods, expertise, and technology continues. While the United States and Russia eliminated intermediate-range missiles and are reducing their intercontinental missile inventories, China is modernizing and expanding its missile force. North Korea, Iran, Israel, India, and Pakistan are building short- and medium-range missiles and are developing longer-range missiles. Dozens of countries have or are developing short-range ballistic missiles and more are likely to buy them. Over 80 countries have cruise missiles; about 40 manufacture or have the ability to manufacture them. And terrorists continue their efforts to acquire NBC capabilities.
Elements in North Korea, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and other countries continue to export weapons technology. The potential for secondary proliferation markets has grown, and concern about the ability of individual actors like the Pakistani nuclear scientist, A.Q. Khan, to peddle nuclear technology has grown considerably.
The number of countries or groups that will acquire or produce NBC weapons may decrease if diplomacy, arms control treaties, nonproliferation regimes, and security and assistance strategies are effective. NBC weapons and missiles will remain a potential threat for the foreseeable future, but most observers readily agree that, even if nonproliferation policies alone are insufficient to halt NBC programs, such measures can slow those programs until states are persuaded that NBC weapons are not in their national security interest.