First,  neither Poland nor the Czech Republic has ratified key bilateral  agreements with the United States, limiting DOD’s ability to finalize key  details of the sites, such as how security will be provided. Second, DOD’s  efforts to establish the roles and responsibilities of key U.S. stakeholders  for the European sites remain incomplete. Without clear definitions of the  roles that MDA and the services will be responsible for and agreement on  criteria for transfer, DOD will continue to face uncertainties in  determining how the European Interceptor Site and the European  Midcourse Radar Site will be sustained over the long term. Delayed Ratification of Key Agreements with Host Nations and Incomplete Agreements between MDA and the Services Present Challenges to DOD’s Planning and Implementation of Ballistic Missile Defenses in Europe

While DOD has made progress with key international partners and U.S.  stakeholders on the planning and implementation of missile defenses in  Europe, several challenges affect DOD’s ability to carry out its plans for  the ballistic missile defenses in Europe. Finally, DOD’s efforts to finalize roles and responsibilities for the  European sites remain incomplete because MDA and the services have not  yet made important determinations, such as establishing the criteria that  must be met before the transfer of specific European missile defense sites  to the services. MDA has been directed by DOD since 2002 to begin  planning for the transfer of missile defense elements, including the  direction to coordinate with the services on resources and personnel  needed to deliver an effective transition of responsibility. Key principles for cost estimating state that  complete cost estimates are important in preparing budget submissions  and for assessing the long-term affordability of a program. However, the initial estimates did not  include all costs primarily because MDA developed and submitted the  military construction estimate to Congress before key site design work  had been completed and without an Army Corps of Engineers review of  the estimate. As a result of the above limitations, DOD’s projected military construction  costs for the European Interceptor Site and the European Midcourse  Radar Site are expected to increase significantly from DOD’s original  $837.5 million estimate in the fiscal year 2009 budget. DOD’s Operations and Support Cost Estimates for Ballistic Missile Defenses in Europe Are Not Complete, and It Is Unclear How These Costs Will Be Funded over the Long Term

DOD’s operations and support cost estimates for ballistic missile defenses  in Europe are not complete because they do not include operations and  support costs for base operations managed by the Army and Air Force. Although MDA and the Army and Air  Force have initiated the development of total operations and support cost  estimates for the interceptor and radar sites, these estimates are not yet  complete as key cost factors that will affect those estimates remain  undefined. To provide for military construction cost estimates for ballistic missile  defenses in Europe that are based on the best available data, direct  MDA, in coordination with the Army and Air Force, to provide  Congress annually, in alignment with the budget, updated military  construction cost estimates for the European Interceptor Site and the  European Midcourse Radar Site that reflect the data gathered from all  site design efforts since project initiation; have been independently  reviewed and verified by the Army Corps of Engineers; account for all  military construction costs for the sites, including Army and Air Force  base support facility requirements, recognizing that certain  assumptions about host nation contributions will have to be made; and  include costs for possible currency fluctuations. To provide for more complete military construction estimates for  future ballistic missile defense sites, such as the still-to-be-determined  European site for the mobile radar system, direct MDA to follow  military construction regulations by utilizing the Army Corps of  Engineers to complete required site design and analysis and verify  military construction cost estimates before submitting cost estimates  to Congress.
Why GAO Did This Study

The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) estimated in 2008 that the potential costs of fielding ballistic missile defenses in Europe would be more than $4 billion through 2015. Planned ballistic missile defenses in Europe are intended to defend the United States, its deployed forces, and its allies against ballistic missile attacks from the Middle East. They are expected to include a missile interceptor site in Poland, a radar site in the Czech Republic, and a mobile radar system in a still-to-be-determined European location. GAO was asked to evaluate the Department of Defense's (DOD) plans for missile defense sites in Europe and address to what extent DOD has (1) planned for the sites' implementation and (2) estimated military construction and long-term operations and support costs. Accordingly, GAO reviewed key legislation; examined policy and guidance from MDA, the Army, the Air Force, and the Army Corps of Engineers; analyzed budget documents and cost estimates; and visited sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.

What GAO Found

DOD has begun planning for the construction and implementation of the European missile defense sites, including coordinating with international partners and U.S. stakeholders; however, several challenges affecting DOD's implementation of ballistic missile defenses in Europe remain. First, neither Poland nor the Czech Republic has ratified key bilateral agreements with the United States, limiting DOD's ability to finalize key details of the sites, such as how security will be provided. Second, DOD's efforts to establish the roles and responsibilities of key U.S. stakeholders for the European sites remain incomplete because MDA and the services have not yet made important determinations, such as establishing the criteria that must be met before the transfer of the European missile defense sites from MDA to the Army and Air Force. Since 2002, MDA has been directed by DOD to begin planning for the transfer of missile defense elements, including the direction to coordinate with the services on resources and personnel needed to provide an effective transition of responsibility. Without clear definitions of the roles that MDA and the services will be responsible for and agreement on criteria for transfer, DOD will continue to face uncertainties in determining how the European Interceptor Site and the European Midcourse Radar Site will be sustained over the long term. DOD's cost estimates for military construction and operations and support have limitations and do not provide Congress complete information on the true costs of ballistic missile defenses in Europe. Key principles for cost estimating state that complete cost estimates are important in preparing budget submissions and for assessing the long-term affordability of a program. Further, according to DOD military construction regulations, the Army Corps of Engineers typically certifies that key construction design milestones have been met and verifies military construction cost estimates before the estimates are submitted as budget requests. However, DOD's original military construction estimates in the fiscal year 2009 budget did not include all costs, primarily because MDA submitted the estimates before accomplishing key design milestones and without a review by the Army Corps of Engineers. Consequently, DOD's projected military construction costs for the interceptor and radar sites could potentially increase from DOD's original $837 million estimate to over $1 billion. DOD operations and support cost estimates are also incomplete because they do not include projected costs for base operations that will be managed by the Army and Air Force. Key cost factors that will affect these estimates, such as how security will be provided at the sites, remain undefined. In addition, MDA and the services have not yet agreed on how the operations and support costs for the interceptor and radar sites will be funded over the long term. As a result, Congress does not have accurate information on the full investment required for ballistic missile defenses in Europe.