Since the Bottom-Up Review, DOD has conducted various studies to examine the two-MRC requirement. Nimble Dancer Promoted Interaction Within DOD and Identified Critical Issues

Nimble Dancer served as a means to promote interaction among DOD organizations and identify critical issues related to the two-MRC requirement. Such issues included the sufficiency of strategic mobility, timeliness of national level decision-making, sufficiency of combat and support forces to meet desired conflict end mitigation of the impact of chemical and biological warfare, impact of extracting forces from peace operations, effectiveness of intelligence capabilities, availability of Bottom-Up Review force enhancements, planning to optimize the apportionment of forces and lift assets for two mitigation of the impact of mine warfare threats, and mitigation of the impact of ballistic missile threats. Nimble Dancer Testing of Key Assumptions Was Limited

During Nimble Dancer, DOD used many key assumptions in modeling the two MRCs that were identical or similar to assumptions in the May 1994 Defense Planning Guidance (DPG), which implemented the Bottom-Up Review. These limitations precluded DOD from analyzing the robustness of U.S. forces to execute the two-MRC strategy under more adverse circumstances. However, DOD did not conduct these sensitivity analyses. For example, DOD’s analyses on chemical warfare and the extraction of forces from peace operations were limited in scope and did not fully assess the impact of these issues on the MRCs. Furthermore, DOD’s analysis of other critical issues, such as the sufficiency of support forces, effectiveness of intelligence capabilities, and the use of the Army National Guard enhanced brigades primarily consisted of discussions, and in some cases, DOD deferred detailed analysis to other studies. Because of its limited analysis, DOD lost opportunities to acquire additional information on the impact of some critical issues on U.S. capabilities. DOD relied on military judgment—an integral part of any war game—throughout Nimble Dancer. DOD officials told us that in reaching the overall conclusion that the war game tested and validated Bottom-Up Review assumptions and showed that U.S. forces can fight and win two MRCs, participants applied their judgment based on extensive military experience when assessing the implications of modeling and other analytical results. In some cases where analytical results were not available, military judgment was the sole basis for reaching conclusions. We continue to believe that Nimble Dancer did not fully examine certain critical issues to the level implied in DOD’s public comments that the game involved rigorous and robust analyses. Our scope was limited to reviewing the Nimble Dancer war game. Assumption appears favorable. Sensitivity analysis was considered by the Joint Staff but was not done. Limited sensitivity analysis done on key assumptions.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the the Department of Defense's (DOD) Nimble Dancer war game, a simulation designed to assess U.S. forces' ability to fight and win two nearly simultaneous major regional conflicts (MRC), focusing on whether the methodology, scope, and results were reasonable.

What GAO Found

GAO found that: (1) DOD statements that Nimble Dancer tested basic Bottom-Up Review assumptions through intensive and extensive war-gaming suggest a more rigorous level of analysis than occurred during the exercise; (2) Nimble Dancer was a useful forum for promoting interaction among DOD organizations and in identifying critical issues in fulfilling the two-MRC requirement; (3) however, Nimble Dancer used many of the same favorable assumptions contained in DOD guidance implementing the Bottom-Up Review; (4) although DOD originally considered examining the sensitivity of certain key assumptions, this type of analysis in some cases was not done, and in other cases its scope was limited; (5) furthermore, DOD did not fully examine the impact of certain critical issues; (6) for example, DOD's analyses of chemical warfare and the extraction of forces from peace operations were limited in scope and did not fully identify the impact of these issues on MRCs; (7) also, DOD deferred detailed analyses of the sufficiency of support forces and intelligence capabilities to other studies; (8) the limited sensitivity analysis of certain key assumptions and limited analysis of some critical issues precluded DOD from analyzing the robustness of the programmed Bottom-Up Review force to meet the two-MRC requirement under more adverse circumstances; (9) in addition, DOD lost opportunities to acquire additional information about the impact of specific critical issues on U.S. capabilities; (10) military judgment is an integral part of any DOD war game or analysis; (11) during Nimble Dancer, DOD relied on the professional military judgment of participants to reach its conclusions, especially where modeling and other analytical results were not available; and (12) all of these factors--favorable assumptions, limited sensitivity analysis, the lack of full analysis of certain critical issues, and heavy reliance on military judgment in some cases where analysis was lacking--should be considered in evaluating DOD's conclusions that Nimble Dancer tested and validated Bottom-Up Review assumptions.