Given the criticality of satellite  data to weather forecasts, concerns that problems and delays on the new  satellite acquisition programs will result in gaps in the continuity of critical  satellite data, and the impact of such gaps on the health and safety of the  U.S. population, we concluded that the potential gap in weather satellite  data is a high-risk area. We added this area to our High-Risk List in 2013  and it remains on the 2015 update to the High-Risk List that was issued  yesterday. The GOES-R series is the next generation of  satellites that NOAA is planning; the satellites are planned to replace  existing weather satellites, the first of which is due to reach the end of its  useful life in 2015. Furthermore, NOAA is currently developing JPSS within its  cost and schedule baselines. As a result, a gap in polar satellite data may occur earlier and last longer  than NOAA anticipates. In one scenario, S-NPP would last its full  expected 5-year life (to October 2016), and JPSS-1 would launch as soon  as possible (in March 2017) and undergo on-orbit testing for 6 months as  predicted by the JPSS program office (until September 2017). While all of the alternatives have trade-offs, several alternatives may  represent the best known options for reducing the impact of a gap:
Extending legacy satellites, continuing to obtain data from European  midmorning satellites, and ensuring legacy and European satellites’  data quality remains acceptable;
Obtaining additional observations of radio occultation
Advancing 4-dimensional data assimilation and the next generation  global forecast model to make more efficient use of data still available  and produce improved techniques for evaluating data; Increasing high-performance computing capacity, a key factor for  enabling greater resolution in existing and future models, which drives  the pace of development for assimilation of data that could further  improve NOAA’s models. Until NOAA fully addresses key elements to  improve its contingency plan, it may not be sufficiently prepared to  mitigate potential gaps in polar satellite coverage. Among a list of available alternatives, NOAA  identified 21 mitigation projects that are to be implemented in order to  address the potential for satellite data gaps in the afternoon polar orbit. However, the agency has not prioritized or accelerated activities most  likely to address a gap because it has been focused on implementing  many different initiatives to see which ones will have the most impact. The GOES-R Program Has Made Development Progress, but Faces Schedule Risks and a Potential Coverage Gap, and Challenges Remain in Mitigation Planning

After spending 10 years and just over $5 billion, the GOES-R program  has completed important steps in developing its first satellite, and has  entered the integration and test phase of development for the satellite. The GOES-R program has also not efficiently closed defects on selected  components. Thus, the agency will have  only two operational satellites in orbit—and no backup satellite—until  GOES-R is launched and completes an estimated 6-month post-launch  test period. Any delay to the GOES-R launch date would extend the time  without a backup to more than 17 months. NOAA has improved its plan to mitigate gaps in  satellite coverage. In the JPSS report released in December, we recommended,  among other things, that NOAA update the JPSS program’s assessment of potential polar satellite  data gaps to include more accurate assumptions about launch dates  and the length of the data calibration period, as well as key risks such  as the potential effect of space debris on JPSS and other polar  satellites expected lifetimes;  revise its existing contingency plan to address shortfalls noted in the  2014 report, such as identifying DOD’s and Japan’s plans to continue  weather satellite observations, including recovery time objectives for  key products, completing the contingency plan with selected  strategies, and establishing a schedule with meaningful timelines and  linkages among mitigation activities; and investigate ways to prioritize mitigation projects with the greatest  potential benefit to weather forecasting in the event of a gap in JPSS  satellite data. For both reports, NOAA agreed with our recommendations and identified  steps it plans to take to implement them. However, the program  continues to face increasing costs and schedule delays on key  components. NOAA has made improvements to its polar satellite gap contingency plan,  but has experienced delays in executing key mitigation activities, and has  not prioritized or accelerated activities most likely to address a gap. NOAA could experience a gap in satellite data coverage if  GOES-R is delayed further and one of the two remaining operational  satellites experiences a problem. Faced with an anticipated gap in the polar satellite program and a  potential gap in backup coverage on the geostationary satellite program,  NOAA has taken steps to study alternatives, establish mitigation plans,  and improve its satellite contingency plans.
Why GAO Did This Study

NOAA is procuring the next generation of polar and geostationary weather satellites to replace aging satellites that are approaching the end of their useful lives. Both new sets of satellites will provide critical weather forecasting data over the next two decades. GAO has reported that gaps in polar satellite coverage and in backup coverage for geostationary satellites are likely in the near future. Given the criticality of satellite data to weather forecasts, concerns that problems and delays on the new satellite acquisition programs will result in gaps in the continuity of critical satellite data, and the impact of such gaps on the health and safety of the U.S. population, GAO added mitigating weather satellite gaps to its High-Risk List in 2013 and it remains on the 2015 update to the High-Risk List.
GAO was asked to testify on two recently released reports on NOAA's satellite programs, specifically on (1) the JPSS program's status, the potential for a gap and mitigation alternatives, and contingency plans, and (2) the GOESR program's status, potential for a gap, and contingency plans.

What GAO Found

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) $11.3 billion Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) program has recently completed significant development activities and remains within its cost and schedule baselines; however, recent cost growth on key components is likely unsustainable, and schedule delays could increase the potential for a near-term satellite data gap. In addition, while the program has reduced its estimate for a near-term gap in the afternoon orbit, its gap assessment was based on incomplete data. A gap in satellite data may occur earlier and last longer than NOAA anticipates. The figure below depicts a possible 11-month gap, in which the current satellite lasts its full expected 5-year life (until October 2016) and the next satellite is launched in March 2017 and undergoes on-orbit testing until September 2017.
Multiple alternatives to prevent or reduce the impact of a gap exist. Key options for reducing the impact of a near-term gap include extending legacy satellites, obtaining additional observations such as data from aircraft, advancing data assimilation and a global forecast model, and increasing high performance computing capacity. While NOAA has improved its contingency plan by identifying mitigation strategies and specific activities, the agency's plan has shortfalls such as not assessing the cost and impact of available alternatives. In addition, NOAA has not yet prioritized mitigation projects most likely to address a gap, and key mitigation projects have been delayed. Until the agency addresses these shortfalls, the agency will have less assurance that it is prepared to deal with a near-term gap in polar satellite coverage.
NOAA's $10.8 billion Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) program has also made major progress on its first satellite. However, the program has continued to experience delays in major milestones and has not efficiently closed defects on selected components, both of which could increase the risk of a launch delay. As the GOES-R program approaches its expected launch date of March 2016, it faces a potential gap of more than a year during which an on-orbit backup satellite would not be available. Specifically, there could be no backup from April 2015 (when an operational satellite is expected to reach its end-of-life) through September 2016 (after GOES-R completes its post-launch test period). Any delay to the GOES-R launch date would extend the length of time without a backup satellite and, if an operational satellite were to experience a problem during that time, there could be a gap in GOES coverage. NOAA has improved its plan to mitigate gaps in satellite coverage, but it does not yet include steps for mitigating a delayed launch.

What GAO Recommends

In its recently issued reports, GAO recommended that NOAA update its polar data gap assessment, address shortfalls in both its polar and geostationary contingency plans, and prioritize mitigation projects most likely to address a gap in polar satellite coverage. NOAA concurred with GAO's recommendations and identified steps it is taking to implement them.