	Overview1

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has helped over 3.69 million Afghan refugees return to Afghanistan since March of 2002, marking the largest assisted return operation in UNHCR's history. In addition, more than a million refugees have returned to Afghanistan without availing themselves of UNHCR's assistance (also known as "spontaneous returns") bringing the total number of returnees to 4.8 million or more. The working assumption at the time was that there were approximately 2 million refugees in Pakistan and 1.5 million in Iran. Almost everyone was caught off-guard, when subsequently 2.15 million Afghans returned in 2002, and yet most of the camps in Pakistan (and to some extent the cities in Iran) continued to house large numbers of Afghan refugees. Although the numbers of returns declined in subsequent years, it can be seen from Table 1 that through 2005 the pace remained very strong. Profile of Remaining Refugees

UNHCR estimates that, as of December 2006, perhaps 2.46 million registered and unregistered Afghans are currently living in Pakistan and more than 900,000 in Iran. Still, perhaps as many as 3.5 million registered and unregistered Afghans still live in exile. The GoP appears to have both economic and security concerns about the Afghan population in Pakistan. Economic worries about the Afghan population have become more persistent in recent years, as the overall level of international funding for refugees in Pakistan has decreased. According to some reports, this resulted in many Afghans crossing the border into Afghanistan without the desire to do so and without adequate preparation, support, or security on either side of the border. Future Prospects

With each passing year, however, it may become more difficult to encourage refugees to return voluntarily to Afghanistan. Those who remain, by contrast, may find it especially difficult to return to a country to which they have, relatively speaking, few ties. Remittances from Afghans working in Iran bring a good deal of revenue to their families in Afghanistan, and Afghans continue to be an important source of labor in Iran, where they are particularly prevalent in construction and agriculture. Nevertheless, Iran's position, like that of Pakistan, has generally been that it is time for Afghans to return home, and these efforts are part of an explicit effort to encourage Afghans to return to Afghanistan. U.S. Assistance for Afghan Refugees

The United States government (USG) has provided humanitarian assistance to Afghan refugees since the early 1980s. Almost all assistance has been provided through the Migration and Refugee Assistance (MRA) account, and has been programmed by the Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM). This funding is used not only for the protection and care of refugees in countries of asylum, but also for the reintegration of Afghan returnees in Afghanistan. Thus, as funding is declining, its importance may be increasing. Both the GoI and the GoP, indicate some possible flexibility on the future of Afghan migration, but have nevertheless made clear that they believe the refugee crisis in Afghanistan is over, and that there is no excuse for Afghans to remain in their countries on humanitarian grounds. It remains to be seen what effect the Pakistani government's recently announced plans for controlling and securing the Afghan border, through the construction of fences and planting of landmines, will have on refugee movements. New research indicates that Afghan labor migration may prove beneficial to both Afghanistan—in the form of remittances—and to countries of asylum—in the form of labor. Maintaining security along the border with Afghanistan is also a concern.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has helped 3.69 million Afghan refugees return to Afghanistan since March 2002, marking the largest assisted return operation in its history. In addition, more than 1.11 million refugees have returned to Afghanistan without availing themselves of UNHCR's assistance, bringing the total number of returnees to at least 4.8 million. Despite the massive returns, possibly 3.5 million registered and unregistered Afghans still remain in these two countries of asylum—up to 2.46 million in Pakistan and more than 900,000 in Iran—making Afghans the second-largest refugee population in the world. These numbers are far greater than the initial working assumption in 2002 of 3.5 million refugees; in fact, the total is believed to be more than 8 million. The United States spent approximately $332.37 million between FY 2002 and FY 2005 on humanitarian assistance to Afghan refugees and returnees through the Department of State's Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM). It continues to provide support to refugees and returnees.
The 110th Congress faces several relevant challenges. The safe and voluntary return of refugees to Afghanistan is not only a major part of the U.S. reconstruction effort in Afghanistan, but also an important indicator of its success. To the extent that refugees continue to return, it can be seen that Afghans are taking part in the future of their country. It is becoming more difficult, however, to encourage refugees to return. Those who were most capable of returning did so in the early years; those who remain have progressively less to return to—houses, livelihoods, family—in Afghanistan. Furthermore, maintaining the high pace of returns will require greater levels of reintegration assistance to anchor returnees in their homes and help them reestablish their lives in Afghanistan. Security will also be a major factor in population displacement within and across borders.
The status of Afghan refugees in Pakistan and Iran has also been somewhat controversial in recent years as these governments want all Afghan refugees to return to Afghanistan. Officials in Pakistan have become concerned that the concentrations of Afghans in the country pose a security and crime risk, as individuals and goods are smuggled across the border. At the same time, however, many observers argue that Afghan labor migration may be beneficial to both Iran and Pakistan—which take advantage of cheap and effective immigrant labor—as well as Afghanistan, whose citizens benefit heavily from remittances sent in from abroad. To cut off this source of income for many poor Afghans could have disastrous consequences—not only humanitarian, but in the security sphere as well, as more than a million Afghans along the Afghan-Pakistan border are deprived of livelihoods and resort to other means to feed their families. Reportedly, many Afghans cross the border regularly, without documentation, and Islamabad does not appear to have the resources to control this flow. A future challenge will thus be to balance reasonable concerns about security with the importance of Afghanistan's labor plans in the regional economies and the forces that drive its migration patterns. It remains to be seen what effect the Pakistani government's recently announced plans for controlling and securing the Afghan border, through the construction of fences and planting of landmines, will have on refugee movements. This report will be updated.