These factors—a devastating natural disaster and lack of access by the international humanitarian community—combined with a controversy over the recent constitutional referendum and the extension of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest for the sixth consecutive year, have the potential to foster significant political change within Burma. Official Burmese figures have now been revised to 84,537 dead and 53,836 missing. An unnamed U.S. envoy in Burma told reporters on May 7, 2008 that the death toll could reach 100,000. In addition to loss of life, injury, and massive displacement, the cyclone also caused extensive damage to much of Burma. The nation's telecommunications system—including telephone and internet service—was disrupted. In addition, there reportedly was widespread criticism about how the military junta has managed the disaster. According to the United Nations, more than 230 international staff have been granted visas and are now in the country. It is responsible for providing non-food humanitarian assistance and can quickly assemble DARTs to assess conditions. The SPDC reported a heavy turnout on both dates, with few voting irregularities. On May 14, 2008, the military junta announced the official results of the May 10 vote (see Table 2 ). On May 29, 2008, the SPDC announced the final vote count for the constitutional referendum, which was published the next day in the New Light of Myanmar . The NLD compiled a list of voting irregularities on the day of the vote that included the following:
The distribution of pre-marked ballots, already checked in favor of the constitution, to voters at polling stations; Election officials watching voters as they marked their ballots; Intimidation and threats to voters; The confiscation of identity cards of voters who voted against the constitution; Reports that voters were told that ballots had already been submitted in their name by local government officials; Refusing to allow eligible voters to vote; Pressuring people to vote yes, and to vote yes for relatives not at the polling station; The arrest of people distributing anti-constitution literature at polling stations; and Denying NLD and other opposition members access to the polling stations to observe the referendum. On the same day the SPDC announced the official results of the May 10 vote, the NLD released a statement condemning the junta's decision to go ahead with the constitutional referendum in the areas of Burma most severely damaged by Cyclone Nargis. U.S. Policy towards Burma106

Two days before Cyclone Nargis struck Burma, President Bush issued an executive order expanding U.S. trade and economic sanctions effective May 1, 2008. These laws and Executive Orders:
Prohibit the import into the United States products from Burma; Ban the export or re-export of financial services to Burma by U.S. persons; Prohibit a U.S. person or company from approving, aiding, or supporting a foreign party's investment in Burma; Prohibit U.S. persons from purchasing shares in a third-country company if the company's profits are predominantly derived from the company's development of resources in Burma; Authorize the President to impose a freeze on funds or assets in the United States of the Burmese Government and individuals who hold senior positions in that government; Freeze all property and interests in property held in the United States or that come to the United States of the Myanmar Gem Enterprise, the Myanmar Timber Enterprise, the Myanmar Pearl Enterprise, and any person determined by the Secretary of Treasury, after consultation with the Secretary of State, to be either directly or indirectly owned or controlled by the SPDC or supportive of the SPDC; and Require U.S. representatives in international financial institutions to vote against the extension of any financial assistance to Burma. In the case of Burma, the response to the natural disaster is closely linked to political developments both within the country and in its relationships with the international community. Long-Term Food Shortages

Even after the immediate post-cyclone emergency has passed, experts expect the country to face a potentially severe food shortage for up to two years. The areas struck by Cyclone Nargis were important sources of rice, seafood, pork, and chicken for Burma; it is unlikely that the rest of the country will be able to step up food production to replace the lost output of the cyclone-devastated regions. As a result, Burma may require food assistance for many months and possibly years. It is noteworthy to recall that widespread protests in Burma in September 2007 began as a demonstration against an unannounced increase in fuel prices. Potential Political Instability

The possible combined effects of public dissatisfaction with the SPDC's response to the cyclone disaster, a potential rejection of the junta's proposed constitution, and widespread food shortages and food price inflation could combine to pose a threat to the political survival of Burma's ruling military junta.
Cyclone Nargis struck the coast of Burma in the evening of May 2, 2008 and cut a path of destruction across the southern portion of the country. The storm left in its wake an official death toll of 84,537 and 53,836 more missing, and extensive damage to the nation's premier agricultural areas. Some have speculated that the final number of dead is actually more than 130,000. Vital infrastructure was destroyed by the storm, severely limiting the ability to assess the loss of life and provide assistance to the survivors for weeks following the cyclone. In addition, much of Burma's most productive agricultural land has been severely damaged; some experts expect that it will take up to two years for Burma's production of rice, seafood, pork and poultry to recover, and that the nation may face chronic food shortages and the need for international assistance for many months.
Burma's ruling military junta quickly faced both domestic and international criticism for its response to Cyclone Nargis, including accusations that it failed to provide adequate warning, its slow emergency response, and its reluctance to allow international relief workers into the country. The United States has offered so far contributed $40.17 million in relief aid.
Even before Cyclone Nargis struck, the junta was already facing a highly controversial referendum on a proposed constitution scheduled for May 10, 2008, that could shape U.S. and other countries' policies toward Burma. As a consequence, the evolution and implications of the humanitarian crisis became inextricably linked to Burma's political situation and its relations with the international community. In a widely criticized move, the military junta decided go ahead with the vote, holding the constitutional referendum in most of Burma on May 10, 2008, and in the more severely affected areas on May 24, 2008. The SPDC reported a heavy turnout on both days and few voting irregularities. Opposition groups state that the turnout was light, and there were many cases of voting fraud and voter intimidation. On May 29, 2008, the junta announced the promulgation of the new constitution, on the basis of on its approval by 90.7% of the eligible voters. According to the new constitution, elections to form a new government are to be held in 2010.
Some experts are speculating that Cyclone Nargis may precipitate major political change in Burma, including the destabilization of Burma's military regime. The junta has already faced domestic and international pressure to cancel the constitutional referendum. Local dissatisfaction with the speed and quality of the junta's provision of emergency assistance may heighten domestic opposition to the junta and its proposed constitution. Also, rising food prices and food shortages may feed popular discontent, much like fuel price increases led to protests in Burma of September 2007. In addition, two days before announcing the official results of the constitutional referendum, the SPDC extended opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest for the sixth consecutive year. This report examines the scope of and response to the disaster, as well as its links to Burma's political situation and U.S. policy. The report will be updates as circumstances warrant.