The  Prometheus 1 spacecraft is being designed to use nuclear power and  electric propulsion technologies to explore the outer reaches of the solar  system. The Prometheus 1 project will have to compete for funding with other  NASA programs. Initial Justification for Prometheus 1 Project Could Form the Basis of a Sound Business Case

NASA is still in the process of preparing initial justification for the  Prometheus 1 project to enter the preliminary design phase. According to project officials, however, funding levels would  need to be increased to support the planned launch of Prometheus 1 to  Jupiter’s Icy Moons. Decision makers will not get their first comprehensive  picture of the project’s requirements and the resources needed to meet  those requirements—the first basis for funding decisions—until PMSR  scheduled for summer 2005. Defining the project’s requirements and  developing life-cycle cost estimates by then could be challenging, given the  short time frames and NASA’s past difficulties developing requirements  and estimates. Adding to these complexities, NASA has historically had difficulty  establishing life-cycle cost estimates. Business Case Allows Match of Needs to Resources and Facilitates Informed Decision Making

By PDR—which occurs at end of the preliminary design phase and is  scheduled for 2008—the fidelity of the information is expected to improve  and could allow NASA to develop a business case that would match  requirements with resources and provide decision makers with the  information needed to determine whether continued investment in the  project is warranted. NASA’s Prometheus 1  technologies are currently immature. While development of Prometheus 1 critical technologies is under way, the  technologies will require extensive advancement before they are mature  enough to provide the revolutionary capabilities of the Prometheus 1  spacecraft. NASA’s current policy does not require projects to  develop knowledge-based business cases that match requirements to  available resources and include controls to ensure that sufficient  knowledge has been attained and therefore the agency had not planned to  develop such a business case for Prometheus 1. We have found, however,  that establishing a formal business case based on a knowledge-based  approach that includes matching requirements and available resources— which include technical and engineering knowledge, time and funding— and controls to ensure that sufficient knowledge has been attained at  critical junctures within the product development process is an essential  part of any product development justification. Recommendations for Executive Action

We recommend that the NASA Administrator take the following two  actions:  identify at PMSR the level of resources the agency is committing to  the project and direct project officials to develop project  requirements based on this resource constraint and ensure that prior to proceeding beyond PDR (currently planned for  2008) a sound business case is established which includes  confirmation that (1) critical technologies have been successfully  demonstrated as mature, (2) systems engineering has been  conducted to support requirements/cost trade-off decisions,  (3) requirements and resource estimates have been updated based  on the results of the preliminary design phase, (4) knowledge  based criteria are established at each critical juncture to ensure  that relevant product development knowledge is captured, and  (5) decision reviews are held to determine that appropriate  knowledge was captured to allow a move to the next phase. Subsequent to our draft report being provided to NASA for comment,  significant changes were made to the Prometheus 1 project. NASA’s fiscal  year 2006 budget request includes changes to the Prometheus 1 project  that directly address the recommendations in this report. If properly  implemented, they could be positive steps toward implementing a  knowledge-based approach to project management. 1.) The lifetime required by Prometheus 1, however,  has not been demonstrated. Defense Acquisitions: DOD Faces Challenges in Implementing Best  Practices.
Why GAO Did This Study

In 2003, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) initiated the Prometheus 1 project to explore the outer reaches of the Solar System. The Prometheus 1 spacecraft is being designed to harness nuclear energy that will increase available electrical power from about 1,000 watts to over 100,000 watts and enable the use of electric propulsion thrusters. Historically, NASA has had difficulty implementing some initiatives. NASA's failure to adequately define requirements and quantify the resources needed to meet those requirements has resulted in some projects costing more, taking longer, and achieving less than originally planned. Prometheus 1 will need to compete for NASA resources with other space missions--including efforts to return the shuttle safely to flight and complete the International Space Station. GAO was asked to determine (1) whether NASA is establishing initial justification for its investment in the Prometheus 1 project and (2) how the agency plans to ensure that critical technologies will be sufficiently mature at key milestones.

What GAO Found

NASA is in the process of establishing initial justification for its investment in the Prometheus 1 project but faces challenges establishing preliminary requirements and developing accurate cost estimates. Decision makers will not get their first comprehensive picture of the project's requirements and the resources needed to meet those requirements until the preliminary mission and systems review, scheduled for summer 2005. Defining the project's requirements and developing life-cycle cost estimates by then could be challenging, given the short time frames. The fidelity of this information should improve by the preliminary design review scheduled for 2008. At that time, NASA has the opportunity to use these more refined requirements and cost estimates to establish a sound business case for its investment in the Prometheus 1 project. According to Prometheus 1 project management, a flat funding profile is inadequate to ramp up for the planned 2015 launch of Prometheus 1, the project's first spacecraft to its original destination of Jupiter's Icy Moons. By matching requirements to resources a sound business case would allow NASA to determine whether trade-offs in the design of the spacecraft or the agency's expectations are needed to avoid outstripping available resources. Significant program cost and schedule increases in past programs can be traced to not matching requirements with resources at preliminary design review. While development of the Prometheus 1 technologies is under way, each will require extensive advancement before they are mature enough to support reliable cost estimates. NASA is preparing technology development plans that include measurable criteria to ensure the Prometheus 1 technologies are on track for meeting NASA's maturity requirements through the end of the preliminary design phase. GAO's best practices work has shown, however, that establishing a formal business case based on a knowledge-based approach that includes matching requirements and available resources--which include technical and engineering knowledge, time, and funding--and controls to ensure that sufficient knowledge has been attained at critical junctures within the product development process is an essential part of any product development justification. NASA's current policy does not require projects to develop knowledge-based business cases that match requirements to available resources and include controls to ensure that sufficient knowledge has been attained. Therefore, the agency had not planned to develop such a business case for Prometheus 1. Since GAO provided our draft report to NASA for comment, the agency released its fiscal year 2006 budget request that includes changes to Prometheus 1. If properly implemented, these changes could be positive steps in addressing the findings and recommendations in this report.