We identified safety concerns raised regarding the weather services provided at the Erie airport and obtained NWS’ responses to these concerns through interviews with the National Air Traffic Controllers Association safety representative at Erie International Airport, the manager of the Aviation Weather Requirements Division, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and NWS officials. Under NWS’ restructuring plan, the Erie WSO is slated for closure and has been spun down operationally. This certification must include (1) a description of local weather characteristics and weather-related concerns that affect the weather services provided within the service area, (2) a detailed comparison of the services provided within the service area and the services to be provided after such action, (3) a description of recent or expected modernization of NWS operations that will enhance services in the area, (4) identification of areas within a state that will not receive coverage (at an elevation of 10,000 feet or below) by the modernized radar network, (5) evidence, based upon a demonstration of modernized NWS operations, used to conclude that services will not be degraded from such action, and (6) any report of the Modernization Transition Committee that evaluates the proposed certification. Erie Spin-Down Began Prior to Initiation of Commerce Review

NWS started spinning down the Erie WSO by transferring warning responsibilities to the three assuming WFOs in August 1994 before the Department of Commerce began its review of areas of concern. NWS continued with its plans to spin down the office because officials believed they would be providing the best service to the area by relying on modernized radars in other offices. In February 1995, Erie was identified as 1 of 32 areas of concern. The Department of Commerce reviewed the 32 areas between June and August 1995, and issued its report in October 1995. Types of NWS Services Provided Before and After Spin-Down Are Generally the Same, but Concerns Exist Regarding NWS’ Ability to Serve Distant Areas

The three weather offices that assumed responsibility for the counties formerly served by the Erie WSO provide generally the same types of services that the Erie office had provided, with the exception of the general public’s local or toll-free telephone access to NWS personnel. Concerns Raised About Services to Erie and Crawford Counties and NWS Responses

Many concerns have been raised about the specific services being provided by NWS as well as the quality of the service provided. Concerns About Services at the Erie Airport and Timeliness of Lake Erie Small-Craft Advisories

A few concerns have been raised regarding weather services provided at the Erie International Airport and the timeliness of small-craft advisories for Lake Erie. Concerns surround the issue of whether this ASOS augmentation responsibility is too much for air traffic controllers. No Evidence of Service Degradation, but Detection of Lake-Effect Snow Remains a Concern

There are several sources of evidence that address whether a degradation of service has occurred in the Erie area. NWS is completing a 3-year study of its ability to detect and predict lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes area, which includes northwestern Pennsylvania. Therefore, the Secretary’s team recommended that NWS compare the adequacy of the assuming WFOs’ new radars and other data sources with Erie’s old radar in identifying lake-effect snow over a 2-year period to determine how well the composite weather system could help detect and predict lake-effect snow over the area in question. As a result, the Eastern Region report recommended that a radar be installed to provide better coverage for this severe weather phenomenon in northwestern Pennsylvania.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO examined how the National Weather Service (NWS) had implemented modernization and restructuring activities in northwestern Pennsylvania, focusing on identifying: (1) why the Erie, Pennsylvania, weather service office (WSO) was spun down prior to the Department of Commerce's October 1995 report on 32 areas of concern; (2) what types of services were provided to the counties served by the Erie office before and after office spin-down, as well as what public concerns have been raised, and how NWS responded to them; (3) what safety concerns have been raised to weather services at the Erie airport and to the timeliness of small-craft advisories for Lake Erie, including how NWS responded to public concerns about these issues; and (4) whether any reliable statistical or other evidence exists that addresses whether a degradation of service in the Erie area has occurred as a result of the modernization and office restructuring.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) NWS started spinning down the Erie WSO by transferring warning responsibilities to the three assuming Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) in August 1994 before the Department of Commerce began its review of the 32 areas of concern in June 1995; (2) concerns about the Erie office closure, however, were made known as early as June 1994; (3) NWS continued with its plans to spin down the office because officials believed that they would be providing the best service to the area by relying on modernized radars in other offices; (4) the three WFOs that assumed responsibility for the counties formerly served by the Erie WSO provide generally the same types of services that the Erie office had provided, with the exception of the general public's local or toll-free telephone access to NWS personnel; (5) the major concerns surrounding the transfer of responsibilities relate to whether radar coverage over the counties formerly served by Erie would be adequate, and whether forecasts and warnings are at least equal in accuracy and timeliness to those previously issued by Erie; (6) NWS responses to such concerns include analyzing its ability to detect severe weather phenomena over northwestern Pennsylvania, as well as providing data on how well the assuming offices are issuing forecasts and warnings; (7) a few concerns also have been raised regarding NWS service to the Erie airport and the timeliness of small-craft advisories for Lake Erie; (8) the most commonly voiced concern regarded an automated surface observing system (ASOS) and requirements for air traffic controllers to augment it with human observations; (9) the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has sponsored a study of the impact of its augmentation responsibilities at airports such as Erie and will be issuing a report in the fall of 1997; (10) several studies present evidence that a degradation in service has not occurred in northwestern Pennsylvania; however, the ability to detect and predict lake-effect snow remains a concern; (11) NWS is completing a lake-effect snow study to determine the effectiveness of the modernized weather system in detecting and forecasting lake-effect snow; (12) the Director of NWS' Office of Meteorology told GAO that he will recommend a radar for the Erie area; and (13) however, NWS has not yet taken a position on the need for a radar, and the Secretary of Commerce is scheduled to make the final decision on any action to be taken in northwestern Pennsylvania.