The converged program,  NPOESS, is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the  continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate  monitoring. The  restructuring also led agency executives to mitigate potential data gaps by  deciding to use a planned demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS  Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite, as an operational satellite providing  climate and weather data. However, problems with two critical sensors continue to drive the  program’s cost and schedule. As a result, those other activities now face cost increases and  schedule delays. Program officials reported that they plan to revise the  program’s cost estimate over the next few weeks and to submit it for  executive-level approval by the end of June 2009. Although the program’s approved cost and schedule baseline is not  achievable and the polar satellite constellation is at risk, the Executive  Committee has not yet made a decision on how to proceed with the  program. Executive Committee Has Not Effectively Fulfilled Its Responsibilities

While the NPOESS Executive Committee has made improvements over the  last several years in response to prior recommendations, it has not  effectively fulfilled its responsibilities and does not have the membership  and leadership it needs to effectively or efficiently oversee and direct the  NPOESS program. Until these shortfalls are  addressed, the Committee is unable to effectively oversee the NPOESS  program—and important issues involving cost growth, schedule delays,  and satellite continuity will likely remain unresolved. To address DOD’s requirement, the NPOESS Program Executive Officer  sponsored two successive alternative management studies; however,  neither of the studies identified a viable alternative to the existing satellite  integrator. The Program Executive Officer plans to conduct a final  assessment of alternatives prior to the June 2010 decision on whether to  exercise the option to have the current system integrator produce the next  two NPOESS satellites. In addition, we are recommending that the  Secretaries of Defense and Commerce and the Administrator of NASA  direct the NPOESS Executive Committee to take the following five  actions: (1) establish a realistic time frame for revising the program’s cost  and schedule baselines; (2) develop plans to mitigate the risk of gaps in  satellite continuity; (3) track the Committee’s action items from inception  to closure; (4) improve the Committee’s ability to achieve successful  outcomes by identifying the desired outcome associated with each of the  Committee actions, as well as time frames and responsible parties, when  new action items are established; and (5) improve the Committee’s  efficiency by establishing time frames for escalating risks to the  Committee for action so that they do not linger unresolved at the program  executive level. Costs are  now expected to grow by as much as $1 billion over the prior life cycle  cost estimate of $13.95 billion, and problems in delivering key sensors  have led to delays in launching NPP and the first two NPOESS satellites— by a year or more for NPP and the first NPOESS satellite. Specifically, if any planned satellites fail on  launch or in orbit, there would be a gap in satellite data until the next  NPOESS satellite is launched and operational—a gap that could last for 3  to 5 years.
Why GAO Did This Study

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)--a tri-agency acquisition managed by the Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting (including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate monitoring. Since its inception, NPOESS has experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical difficulties. As the often-delayed launch of its demonstration satellite (called the NPOESS Preparatory Project--NPP) draws closer, these problems continue. GAO was asked to summarize its report being released today that (1) identifies the status and risks of key program components, (2) assesses the NPOESS Executive Committee's ability to fulfill its responsibilities, and (3) evaluates efforts to identify an alternative system integrator for later NPOESS satellites.

What GAO Found

The NPOESS program's approved cost and schedule baseline is not achievable and problems with two critical sensors continue to drive the program's cost and schedule. Costs are expected to grow by about $1 billion from the current $13.95 billion cost estimate, and the schedules for NPP and the first two NPOESS satellites are expected to be delayed by 7, 14, and 5 months, respectively. These delays endanger the continuity of weather and climate satellite data because there will not be a satellite available as a backup should a satellite fail on launch or in orbit--loss of a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite, an NPOESS satellite, or NPP could result in a 3 to 5 year gap in data continuity. Program officials reported that they are assessing alternatives for mitigating risks, and that they plan to propose a new cost and schedule baseline by the end of June 2009. However, the Executive Committee does not have an estimate for when it will make critical decisions on cost, schedule, and risk mitigation. While the NPOESS Executive Committee has made improvements over the last several years in response to prior recommendations, it has not effectively fulfilled its responsibilities and does not have the membership and leadership it needs to effectively or efficiently oversee and direct the NPOESS program. Until its shortfalls are addressed, the Committee will be unable to effectively oversee the NPOESS program--and important issues involving cost growth, schedule delays, and satellite continuity will likely remain unresolved. The NPOESS program has conducted two successive studies of alternatives to using the existing system integrator for the last two NPOESS satellites, but neither identified a viable alternative to the current contractor. Program officials plan to conduct a final study prior to the June 2010 decision on whether to proceed with the existing prime contractor.