As shown in figure 1, the cost of  enumerating each housing unit has escalated from around $16 in 1970, to  around $98 in 2010, in constant 2010 dollars (an increase of over 500  percent). Indeed, the 2010 Census required an unprecedented commitment of  resources, including recruiting more than 3.8 million total applicants— roughly equivalent to the entire population of Oklahoma—for its  temporary workforce; and rose in cost from an initial estimate of $11.3  billion in 2001 to around $13 billion. Since 1970,  the Bureau has used a similar approach to count the vast majority of the  population. A fundamental reexamination of the nation’s approach to the census will  require the Bureau to rethink its approach to planning, testing,  implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the census, and addressing such  questions as: Why was a certain program initiated? To determine if these and other census-taking activities were effective, the  Bureau plans to complete over 70 studies covering such topics as  marketing and publicity, field operations, privacy and confidentiality, and  language barriers. Moreover, in several of the programs we reviewed, assessments were not  always focused on the value-added of a particular operation, such as the  extent to which it reduced costs and/or enhanced data quality. Lesson #3: Institutionalize Efforts to Address High-Risk Areas

A key priority for the Bureau will be to fully address those areas that led  us to designate the 2010 Census a high-risk program. The problems the  Bureau encountered in managing its IT systems, developing reliable life- cycle cost estimates, and testing key operations under census-like  conditions were cross-cutting in that they affected a number of different  activities, and thus threatened the Bureau’s readiness for the census. Incorporate Best Practices for IT Acquisition Management

IT is critical to a successful census because it helps support the Bureau’s  data collection, analysis, and dissemination activities. Both we and the  Department of Commerce Inspector General made a series of  recommendations to address these issues, and the Bureau took steps to  implement them. However, the Bureau was still limited in its ability to effectively  monitor productivity or implement quality-assurance procedures as  documented in its operational plans. Moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau to ensure the  reliability of the 2020 cost estimate, and the Bureau has already taken  several actions in that regard. Moving forward, as the Bureau refines and implements its testing plans,  our past work on census testing has shown that it will be important for its  strategy to include, but not be limited to, these key components of a sound  study:  clearly stated objectives with accompanying performance measures; research questions linked to test objectives and, as appropriate, a clear  rationale for why sites were selected for field tests; a thoroughly documented data collection strategy; input from stakeholders and lessons learned considered in developing  test objectives; and a data analysis plan including, as appropriate, methods for determining  the extent to which specific activities contribute to controlling costs  and enhancing quality. Lesson Learned #4: Ensure That the Bureau’s Management, Culture, and Business Practices Are Aligned with a Cost-Effective Enumeration

On the basis of our earlier work on high-performing organizations,  fundamental reforms will mean ensuring that the Bureau’s organizational  culture and structure, as well as its approach to strategic planning, human- capital management, internal collaboration, knowledge sharing, capital  decision making, risk and change management, and other internal  functions are aligned toward delivering more cost-effective outcomes. On the basis of our work on planning for  the 2010 Census, a road map for 2020 could include, but not be limited to,  the following elements that could be updated on a regular basis:  specific, measurable performance goals, how the Bureau’s efforts,  procedures, and projects would contribute to those goals, and what  performance measures would be used;    descriptions of how the Bureau’s approaches to human-capital  management, organizational structure, IT acquisitions, and other  internal functions are aligned with the performance goals;   an assessment of the risks associated with each significant decennial  operation, including the interrelationships between the operations and  a description of relevant mitigation plans;    detailed milestone estimates for each significant decennial operation,  including estimated testing dates, and justification for any changes to  milestone estimates;   detailed life-cycle cost estimates of the decennial census that are  credible, comprehensive, accurate, and well-documented as stipulated  by OMB and GAO guidance; and  a detailed description of all significant contracts the Bureau plans to  enter into and a risk management plan for those contracts. 2010 Census: Data Collection Operations Were Generally Completed as  Planned, but Long-standing Challenges Suggest Need for Fundamental  Reforms. Information Technology: Census Bureau Needs to Improve Its Risk  Management of Decennial Systems. 2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective 2010  Census.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO added the 2010 Census to its list of high-risk programs in 2008 in part because of (1) long-standing weaknesses in the Census Bureau's (Bureau) information technology (IT) acquisition and contract management function, (2) difficulties in developing reliable life-cycle cost estimates, and (3) key operations that were not tested under operational conditions. These issues jeopardized the Bureau's readiness for the count. Moreover, societal trends, such as concerns over privacy, have made a cost-effective census an increasingly difficult challenge. At about $13 billion, 2010 was the costliest U.S. Census in history. As requested, this testimony focuses on lessons learned from the 2010 Census, and initiatives that show promise for producing a more cost-effective population count in 2020. This testimony is based on completed and ongoing work, including an analysis of Bureau documents, interviews with Bureau officials, and field observations of census operations in urban and rural locations across the country.

What GAO Found

In February 2011, GAO removed the 2010 Census from its High-Risk List because the Bureau generally completed its peak enumeration activities and released congressional apportionment and redistricting data consistent with its operational plans. The Bureau improved its readiness for the census by strengthening its risk management activities, enhancing systems testing, and meeting regularly with executives from its parent agency, the Department of Commerce. Strong congressional oversight was also critical. Still, the 2010 Census required an unprecedented commitment of resources, and the cost of enumerating each housing unit has escalated from around $16 in 1970, to around $98 in 2010, in constant 2010 dollars. Based on the results of the 2010 and prior censuses, the following four early lessons learned could help secure a more cost-effective enumeration in 2020: 1. Reexamine the Nation's Approach to Taking the Census: The Bureau has used a similar approach to count most of the population since 1970. However, the approach has not kept pace with changes to society. Moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau to rethink its approach to planning, testing, implementing, and monitoring the census to address long-standing challenges. 2. Assess and Refine Existing Operations Focusing on Tailoring Them to Specific Locations and Population Groups: The Bureau plans to complete over 70 studies of the 2010 Census covering such topics as the Bureau's publicity efforts and field operations. As this research is completed, it will be important for it to assess the value-added of a particular operation in order for it to determine how best to allocate its resources for 2020. 3. Institutionalize Efforts to Address High-Risk Areas: Focus areas include incorporating best practices for IT acquisition management; developing reliable cost estimates; and ensuring key operations are fully tested, in part by developing clearly stated research objectives, a thoroughly documented data collection strategy, and methods for determining the extent to which specific activities contributed to controlling costs and enhancing quality. 4. Ensure that the Bureau's Management, Culture, and Business Practices Align with a Cost-Effective Enumeration: The Bureau will need to ensure that its organizational culture and structure, as well as its approach to strategic planning, human capital management, collaboration, and other internal functions are focused on delivering more cost-effective outcomes. The Bureau has launched an ambitious planning program for 2020. As these actions gain momentum, it will be important that they enhance the Bureau's capacity to control costs, ensure quality, and adapt to future technological and societal changes.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is not making new recommendations in this testimony, but past reports recommended that the Bureau strengthen its testing of key IT systems, better document and update its cost estimates, and develop an operational plan that integrates performance, budget, and other information. The Bureau generally agreed with GAO's findings and recommendations and is taking steps to implement them.