Dropout Rates Changed Little in the 1990-2000 Period and Vary Considerably Between Regions and Ethnic Groups

Nationally, dropout rates changed little in the 1990-2000 period. Data compiled by NCES indicates that the percentage of 16- through 24-year-olds who were dropouts ranged between 10.9 and 12.5 percent. In  one such approach, referred to as the status dropout rate, NCES measures  the percentage of all persons from 16- through 24-years-old who are not  enrolled in school and have not earned a high school credential, including  those who never attended school in the United States. Education and private research organizations  have identified two main types of factors associated with the likelihood of  dropping out—one type involving family characteristics and the other  involving students’ experiences in school. However, identifying students likely to drop out is not just a matter of  identifying students with high-risk characteristics, because research shows  that dropping out is often the culmination of a long-term process of  disengagement that begins in the earliest grades. School-wide  restructuring efforts are generally implemented in schools that have many  students who are dropout prone. These programs provide  mentoring, counseling, and health services to students, and state funds are  awarded to school districts through both competitive and formula grants. Multiple Federal Programs Provide Funds That Can Be Used for Dropout Prevention

The Dropout Prevention Demonstration Program (DPDP)—funded at  $5 million for fiscal year 2001—is the only federal program that has  dropout prevention as its sole objective; because the program is new, the  Department of Education has not yet evaluated its effectiveness.However, other federal programs are also used by local entities to provide  dropout prevention services. For example, five federal programs have  dropout prevention as one of their multiple objectives and several more  programs—such as Safe and Drug-Free Schools and 21st Century  Community Learning Centers—serve at-risk youth even though dropout  prevention is not the programs’ stated goal.
What GAO Found

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) reports that the national status dropout rate--the percentage of 16- through 24-year olds who are not enrolled in school and who lack a high school diploma or a high school equivalency certificate--fluctuated between 10.9 and 12.5 percent between 1990 and 2000. However, dropout rates have varied considerably between regions of the country and among ethnic groups. Research has shown that dropping out it is a long-term process of disengagement that begins in the earliest grades. NCES and private research organizations have identified two factors--an individual's family and his or her experience in school--that are related to dropping out. Various state, local, and private programs are available to assist youth at risk of dropping out of school. These programs range in scope from small-scale supplementary services that target a small group of students, such as mentoring or counseling services, to comprehensive school-wide restructuring efforts that involve changing the entire school to improve educational opportunities for all students. One federal program, the Dropout Prevention Demonstration Program, is specifically targeted to dropouts, but the program is new and the Department of Education has yet to evaluate its effectiveness. In September 2001, the program awarded grants to state and local education agencies working to reduce the number of school dropouts. Other federal programs have dropout prevention as one of their multiple objectives, and many more federal programs serve at-risk youth but do not have dropout prevention as a stated program goal.