	Introduction

This report explores the nexus between the environment and security in Pakistan in order to assess how environmental stress in Pakistan can lead to security issues that affect American security and foreign policy interests in the region. The security environment within and around Pakistan is of significant concern to the United States. During the Cold War, the United States worked with Pakistan to meet common security challenges in Afghanistan and the region. Pakistan's limited and tenuous control of much of its territory, the growing strength of radical Islamist groups in Pakistan, the poor state of Pakistan's economy, and ongoing political turmoil among Pakistani political elites all undermine Pakistan's ability to effectively control radical Islamist elements and to ameliorate growing environmental, economic, and other stresses. Pakistan's status as a nuclear weapon state, its traditional enmity with India, and proximity to Afghanistan all heighten its importance to U.S. strategic interests. Existing environmental stress and potential future stress from climate change in Pakistan may undermine American interests in the region by leading to further socio-political instability in Pakistan. Alone, environmental stress might not become a geopolitical concern, but when added to existing political and socio-economic stresses, it has the potential to be geopolitically important due to the instability that it could create. Environmental scarcity is not the sole or sufficient cause of these social effects. The combination of environmental degradation, anticipated future impacts of climate change, and increasing demographic pressure are likely to place significant stress on many developing nations across the globe in the years ahead. This demonstrates that the issues under consideration in this report on Pakistan are in various ways relevant to other parts of the globe as well. In recent years, however, agricultural production has been declining. If these conditions worsen, they could act as a threat multiplier in combination with other threats to the state such as expanding population and food insecurity, strife among political-military elites, poor economic resources, Islamist extremism, secessionism, inter-provincial competition for resources, and/or cross border conflict with Afghanistan or India. Such a situation could also lead to a return to military rule. Food production in Pakistan is a key factor for development because of the limited carrying capacity of arable land and state resources relative to Pakistan's population. Some reasons for this status are economic. The food security situation is considered to be the worst in Pakistan's northern and western border areas. Further, environmental stress, such as food scarcity and limited water supplies, exacerbates the effect of refugees and lead to protests, crime, and potentially recruiting by militants. Natural disasters leading to a weak government response has the potential to create discord among displaced populations. A deteriorating environment due to increased stress on the land that could come about as a result of potential demographic pressure could further weaken central government control over these areas. The Indus Water Treaty has allowed water sharing between India and Pakistan for many years. Tensions over the water resources may place more emphasis on Pakistani support of insurgents that are trying to break Kashmir away from India, which could potentially escalate to war given the history of conflict between India and Pakistan. U.S. interests are primarily focused on Pakistan's ability to control its territory to prevent it from being used as a haven for anti-American terrorists and prevent inter-state conflict with India that would be regionally destabilizing or worse, given their nuclear weapons. (For an in-depth discussion of U.S. assistance to Pakistan see CRS Report RL33498, Pakistan-U.S. Relations , by [author name scrubbed].)
This report focuses on the nexus between security and environmental concerns in Pakistan that have the potential to affect American security and foreign policy interests. Environmental concerns include, but are not limited to, water and food scarcity, natural disasters, and the effects of climate change. Environmental stresses, when combined with the other socio-economic and political stresses on Pakistan, have the potential to further weaken an already weak Pakistani state. Such a scenario would make it more difficult to achieve the U.S. goal of neutralizing anti-Western terrorists in Pakistan. Some analysts argue that disagreements over water could also exacerbate existing tensions between India and Pakistan. Given the importance of this region to U.S. interests for many reasons, the report identifies an issue that may be of increasing concern for Congress in the years ahead.
The report examines the potentially destabilizing effect that, when combined with Pakistan's demographic trends and limited economic development, water scarcity, limited arable land, and food security may have on an already radicalized internal and destabilized international political-security environment. The report considers the especially important hypothesis that the combination of these factors could contribute to Pakistan's decline as a fully functioning state, creating new, or expanding existing, largely ungoverned areas. The creation, or expansion, of ungoverned areas, or areas of limited control by the government of Pakistan, is viewed as not in U.S. strategic interests given the recent history of such areas being used by the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups as a base for operations against U.S. interests in the region. In this sense, environmental stress is viewed as a potential "threat multiplier" to existing sources of conflict.
Environmental factors could also expand the ranks of the dispossessed in Pakistan, which could lead to greater recruitment for radical Islamist groups operating in Pakistan or Afghanistan. Larger numbers of dispossessed people in Pakistan could also destabilize the current political regime. This could add pressure on the Pakistani political system and possibly add impetus to a return to military rule or a more bellicose posture towards India. This issue has added significant importance to regional security and American interests in Afghanistan.
The potential for environmental factors to stoke conflict between the nuclear armed states of India and Pakistan is also a concern. These two historical enemies have repeatedly fought across their international frontier and have yet to resolve their territorial dispute over Kashmir. Further, a longstanding dispute over cross-border water resource sharing between India and Pakistan has resurfaced, possibly exacerbating existing tensions between the two states. Should the two countries wish, however, this dispute also offers a renewed opportunity for cooperation, as has been seen in past negotiations.
Preliminary findings by experts seem to indicate that existing environmental problems in Pakistan are sufficiently significant to warrant a close watch, especially when combined with Pakistan's limited resilience due to mounting demographic stresses, internal political instability, security challenges, and limited economic resources. For more detailed information on Pakistan see the work of Alan Kronstadt and others including CRS Report RL33498, Pakistan-U.S. Relations, and CRS Report RL34763, Islamist Militancy in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Border Region and U.S. Policy.