This will represent a significant change for  many U.S. citizens living in Mexico, who have until recently been able to  routinely cross between the United States and Mexico with more limited  documentation. State Anticipates Significant Increases in Mission Mexico’s Nonimmigrant Visa and Passport Workload from Fiscal Years 2007 to 2011

Ten years after the first surge in demand for Border Crossing Cards began  in fiscal year 1998, State anticipates another surge in NIV demand in  Mexico as these cards begin to expire and millions of card holders apply  for renewals at U.S. consulates. State’s forecasts, as of April 2008, anticipate that the upcoming surge in  NIV demand will follow a pattern similar to the previous Border Crossing  Card surge from fiscal years 1998 to 2002, as shown in figure 1. State  has detailed data on the number of Border Crossing Cards issued during  the previous surge and when they are expiring, which gives it a strong  basis for its projections. First, State officials believe that the forecasts are  conservative, with NIV demand likely to be lower than forecasted. According to State officials, the mission has already seen a significant  increase in its passport workload as U.S. citizens living in Mexico have  begun to apply for passports in response to the new documentary  requirements. While State expects passport workload in Mexico to continue to increase  significantly in the coming years, it is difficult to predict precisely what the  magnitude of this increase will be. Additionally, there is a great  deal of uncertainty regarding the number of U.S. citizens living in Mexico  and the number of these citizens who are potential passport applicants. Based  upon State’s estimates, Mission Mexico’s WHTI workload is projected to  peak at 73,000 passport and CRBA applications in fiscal year 2009 with the  implementation of WHTI at land ports of entry. In addition, rather than focusing on developing precise  workload estimates in order to prepare for the surge, State has instead  chosen to pursue strategies designed to provide it with the flexibility to  respond to increases in workload as they occur—particularly as a more  limited number of resources will be needed to cover increases in passport  and CRBA applications than NIV applications, given their small share of  Mission Mexico’s overall consular workload. State Is Adding Interviewing Windows and Temporary Adjudicators to Posts in Mexico to Keep Pace with Projected Workload Increases

To keep pace with the expected NIV renewal surge, State is increasing the  total number of hardened interview windows in the consulates’ NIV  sections by over 50 percent before the demand peaks in 2011. Figure 4 shows the number of temporary  adjudicators and career adjudicators planned for Mission Mexico in fiscal  year 2011. Consequently, these posts would be at greatest risk of increased NIV  backlogs if temporary adjudicator slots cannot be filled as needed or if  their productivity is not as high as anticipated. State has neither  established specific milestones for completing the pilot nor provided us  with any metrics that would be part of an assessment of the potential  impact on productivity, fraud, or security. Concluding Remarks

In anticipation of the expected surge in demand for NIVs and U.S.  passports in Mexico over the next several years, State has taken several  steps to project workloads and expand the capacity of its consulates to  avoid the type of backlogs that have occurred in Mission Mexico in the  past. Several posts in  Mexico will rely heavily on these additional staff to keep pace with  expected demand for NIVs and avoid excessive wait times for interviews  of applicants. In  addition, Mission Mexico may reap productivity gains from a pilot program  to outsource part of the NIV application process at off-site facilities and  from State’s policy to waive interviews for some renewal applicants;  however, these efforts are in their early stages and are not yet widely  implemented. We discussed this testimony with State officials,  who agreed with our findings.
Why GAO Did This Study

The U.S. Mission in Mexico is the Department of State's largest consular operation. In fiscal year 2007, it processed 1.5 million of the 8 million nonimmigrant visas (NIV) State handled worldwide. The U.S. Mission in Mexico also provided services, including passport processing and emergency assistance, to 20,000 American citizens in fiscal year 2007. This already significant consular workload is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years as millions of NIV Border Crossing Cards issued in Mexico between fiscal years 1998 and 2002 expire and need to be renewed. In addition, the implementation of new travel requirements under the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI) will, for the first time, require U.S. citizens to carry passports, or other approved documentation, when traveling between the United States and Mexico. This testimony addresses (1) State's estimates of the workload for consulates in Mexico through 2012 resulting from, in particular, new travel requirements and the reissue of Border Crossing Cards; and (2) the actions State has taken to ensure consulates in Mexico keep pace with projected workload increases through 2012. This testimony is based on work currently in process that involves analyzing State's workload forecasts and forecast methodology, interviewing State officials, and visiting five posts in Mexico. GAO discussed this testimony with State officials, who agreed with GAO's findings.

What GAO Found

According to State forecasts, as of April 2008, the U.S. Mission in Mexico's (Mission Mexico) NIV demand will peak at slightly over 3 million applications in fiscal year 2011, about twice the number from fiscal year 2007. State acknowledges there are uncertainties regarding the number of Border Crossing Card holders who will renew their cards and the number of first time NIV applicants, which may affect the accuracy of its forecasts. State will be revising the forecasts on a periodic basis as new data become available. In addition to its increase in NIV workload, Mission Mexico will also be facing increases in its passport workload due to the implementation of WHTI. The exact magnitude of the increase in passport workload is more difficult to forecast than for NIVs, because there is not the same historical precedent. There is also a great deal of uncertainty as to how many U.S. citizens actually live in Mexico or the number of these citizens likely to apply for a passport. In anticipation of this surge in demand for NIVs and U.S. passports, State is taking steps to ensure consulates in Mexico keep pace, including adding consular interview windows to several high-demand posts and planning to hire about 100 temporary adjudicating officers. Consular officials GAO met with at several posts in Mexico generally agreed that these efforts to expand resources should be adequate for Mission Mexico to keep pace with expected workload increases, and GAO's analysis indicates the mission will generally have enough interviewing windows during the surge. Several posts will rely on the addition of temporary adjudicators to keep pace with increased NIV demand and would face backlogs if these slots cannot be filled or if the temporary staff are not as productive as expected. However, State is confident that it has an adequate pool of potential applicants. Mission Mexico may also gain additional capacity from a pilot program, currently under way at two posts, that outsources a portion of the NIV application process to off-site facilities; however, the pilot was implemented too recently to assess its potential impact on productivity, fraud, or security.