Over the same period, employment in the U.S. manufacturing sector has increased slightly. A sharp increase in the bilateral U.S. trade deficit with China following that country's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001 contributed importantly to manufacturing job loss in the first half of the last decade, but changes in the bilateral balance in goods trade since 2006 are not associated with changes in employment of factory workers in the United States. Transportation equipment, fabricated metal products, food manufacturing, and plastics and rubber manufacturing have added workers since the end of the last recession in 2009, and account for larger shares of manufacturing employment. In 2000, 53% of all workers in manufacturing had no education beyond high school. Including employer-provided benefits, the Commerce Department reported, manufacturing workers earned 17% more per hour than workers in other industries. Moreover, average wages for production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing have declined over time, compared to those in other industries, with the exceptions of retailing and transportation (see Figure 6 ). One criticism of this analysis is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) considers a smaller proportion of employees to be production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing than in other sectors of the economy, so that comparing the wages of this subset of workers may lead to misleading conclusions about relative pay in manufacturing. While manufacturing employers, on average, still spend more on benefits than private-sector employers in general, the differential has diminished in recent years, according to BLS data (see Table 2 ). Although workers in some manufacturing industries earn relatively high wages, the assertion that the manufacturing sector as a whole provides better wages and benefits than the rest of the economy is increasingly difficult to defend. Factoryless Goods Production/Contract Manufacturing

Factoryless goods producers are firms that design products to be manufactured and own the finished goods but do not engage directly in physical transformation. Many of the tasks performed by the employees of the purchaser firms may be identical to those performed by employees of manufacturing establishments in management, professional, sales, office, and transportation occupations. Most contract manufacturing services are provided by establishments in the manufacturing sector, either in the United States or abroad. Nor is it known how many of those workers were captured as manufacturing-sector workers in government data. Similarly, while plant closings are frequently in the headlines, closings are responsible for less than 12% of the manufacturing jobs lost over the past decade. Only a small share of the jobs that are created in the manufacturing sector comes from new establishments, largely because factories typically expand slowly in their early years. Increases in manufacturing employment are unlikely to result in significant employment opportunities for workers who have not continued their educations beyond high school, as the sorts of tasks performed by manufacturing workers increasingly require higher levels of education and training. Policies that promote construction of new facilities for manufacturing may be less effective ways of preserving or creating jobs than policies aimed at existing facilities, as new establishments appear to be relatively limited drivers of employment in manufacturing. It is important to note that increased manufacturing activity may lead to job creation in economic sectors other than manufacturing.
The health of the U.S. manufacturing sector is of ongoing interest to Congress. Numerous bills aimed at promoting manufacturing are introduced in each Congress, often with the stated goal of creating jobs. Implicit in many of these bills is the assumption that the manufacturing sector is uniquely able to provide well-paid employment for workers who have not pursued education beyond high school.
Lines between manufacturing and other economic sectors are increasingly blurred. Many workers in fields such as industrial design and information technology perform work closely related to manufacturing, but are usually counted as employees in other sectors unless their workplace is within a manufacturing facility. Temporary workers in factories typically are employed by third parties and not treated as manufacturing workers in government data. Further, technology, apparel, and footwear firms that design and market manufactured goods but contract out production to separately owned factories are not considered to be manufacturers, even though many of their activities may be identical to those performed within manufacturing firms. These definitional issues have made it more challenging to assess the state of the manufacturing sector.
This report addresses the outlook for employment in the manufacturing sector. Its main conclusions are the following:
U.S. manufacturing output has risen approximately 22% since the most recent low point in 2009, but almost all of that expansion occurred prior to the end of 2014. Increased manufacturing activity has resulted in modest growth of employment in the manufacturing sector, a trend that seems likely to persist even if manufacturing output continues to expand. Wages for production and nonsupervisory workers in manufacturing, on average, have declined relative to wages of similar workers in other industries. Although workers in some manufacturing industries earn relatively high wages, the assertion that manufacturing as a whole provides better jobs than the rest of the economy is increasingly difficult to support. Manufacturers spend more per work-hour for worker benefits than private employers in other industries, but the difference has diminished in recent years. A declining proportion of manufacturing workers is involved in physical production processes, while larger shares perform managerial and professional tasks. Many routine manufacturing tasks are now performed by contract workers, whose wages are lower than those of manufacturing firms' employees in similar occupations. These changes are reflected in increasing skill requirements at manufacturing firms and diminished opportunities for workers without education beyond high school. The average number of new manufacturing establishments opened each year since the end of the last recession remains much lower than in the period between 1977 and 2009. Unlike in the service sector, few jobs in manufacturing are provided by new establishments. Conversely, plant closings are responsible for only a small share of jobs lost. Change in manufacturing employment overwhelmingly occurs through hiring or job reductions at existing facilities.