NMFS and the Councils Have Limited Information on the Magnitude and Timing of Climate Change Effects on Fish Stocks

We found that NMFS and the Councils have general information about  the types of effects climate change is likely to have on federally managed  fish stocks, but information about the magnitude and timing of effects for  specific fish stocks is limited, based on the responses NMFS and the  Councils provided to our questionnaire, our analysis of NMFS and  Council documentation, and our interviews with NMFS and Council  officials. In general, NMFS and Council officials from the Alaska  region said that they do not anticipate the effects of climate change on  the abundance of northern rock sole to be significant, but  acknowledged that it is unknown how warming ocean conditions may  affect the timing or location of the fish’s life cycle events, such as  spawning. Atlantic cod. NMFS and the Councils Identified Several Challenges to Better Understand the Effects of Climate Change on Fish Stocks

Through the questionnaire responses and our interviews, NMFS and  Council officials identified several challenges to better understand the  existing and anticipated effects of climate change on fish stocks as well  as efforts they are taking to address some of these challenges, including:
Understanding how climate change may affect fish stocks. It can  be challenging to determine whether a change in a fish stock’s  abundance or distribution is caused by climate change; natural  variation in the oceans; or other human or environmental factors, such  as overfishing or pollution, according to NMFS and some Council  officials. The Strategy recognizes the importance of incorporating climate  information into the fisheries management process but does not provide  specific guidance on how this is to be done. By developing guidance on how the NMFS regions and Councils are to  incorporate climate information into different parts of the fisheries  management process, NMFS may help ensure consistency in how its  regions and the Councils factor climate-related risks into fisheries  management decision making. In addition, the Strategy lays out overall objectives to help identify the  agency’s climate information needs and help better ensure effective  management in a changing climate, but does not contain agency-wide  performance measures to track progress in achieving the Strategy’s  objectives. However, most of the measures did not contain other key attributes. By incorporating key attributes associated with  successful performance measures in the final performance measures  developed for the plans and assessing whether agency-wide performance  measures may also be needed, NMFS may be in a better position to  determine the extent to which the objectives of the Strategy overall are  being achieved. Developing such guidance would align with federal  standards for internal control and may help NMFS ensure consistency in  how its regions and the Councils factor climate-related risks into fisheries  management decision making. Moreover, NMFS has not  developed agency-wide performance measures to assess progress in  meeting the Strategy’s overall objectives, instead choosing to wait to  complete the regional action plans before determining whether such  measures may be necessary. In finalizing the regional action plans for implementing the NOAA  Fisheries Climate Science Strategy, (1) incorporate the key attributes  associated with successful performance measures in the final  performance measures developed for the plans and (2) assess  whether agency-wide performance measures may be needed to  determine the extent to which the objectives of the Strategy overall  are being achieved, and develop such measures, as appropriate, that  incorporate the key attributes of successful performance measures. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

This report examines (1) information the National Marine Fisheries  Service (NMFS) and the Regional Fishery Management Councils  (Council) have about the existing and anticipated effects of climate  change on federally managed fish stocks and challenges they face to  better understand these effects and (2) efforts NMFS has taken to help it  and the Councils incorporate climate information into the fisheries  management process.
Why GAO Did This Study

NMFS and the Councils manage commercial and recreational marine fisheries that are critical to the nation's economy. The effects of climate change may pose risks to these fisheries that could have economic consequences for the fishing industry and coastal communities, according to the 2014 Third National Climate Assessment.
GAO was asked to review federal efforts to address the effects of climate change on federal fisheries. This report examines (1) information NMFS and the Councils have about the existing and anticipated effects of climate change on federally managed fish stocks and challenges to better understand these effects and (2) efforts NMFS has taken to help it and the Councils incorporate climate information into fisheries management. GAO analyzed responses to its questionnaire from all NMFS regions and the Councils, analyzed seven nongeneralizable fish species selected to reflect variation in the potential effects of climate change, reviewed relevant documentation, and interviewed NMFS and Council officials.

What GAO Found

The Department of Commerce's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) and eight Regional Fishery Management Councils (Council) have general information on the types of effects climate change is likely to have on federally managed fish stocks but limited information on the magnitude and timing of effects for specific stocks. They also face several challenges to better understand these effects, based on GAO's analysis of NMFS and Council questionnaire responses, NMFS and Council documentation, and interviews with NMFS and Council officials. For example, NMFS officials said that northern rock sole may adapt to warming ocean temperatures more easily than other fish species, but it is unknown how such temperatures may affect the timing of the fish's life cycle events, such as spawning. NMFS and Council officials identified several challenges to better understand potential climate change effects on fish stocks, including determining whether a change in a stock's abundance or distribution is the result of climate change or other factors, such as overfishing in the case of Atlantic cod.
NMFS developed a climate science strategy in 2015 to help increase the use of climate information in fisheries management. The strategy lays out a national framework to be implemented by NMFS' regions but does not provide specific guidance on how climate information should be incorporated into the fisheries management process. An NMFS official said that developing such guidance has not been an agency priority, but as knowledge on climate change progresses there is a more pressing need to incorporate climate information into fisheries management decision making. Developing such guidance would align with federal standards for internal control and may help NMFS ensure consistency in how its regions and the Councils factor climate-related risks into fisheries management. In addition, NMFS has not developed agency-wide performance measures to track progress toward the strategy's overall objectives, a leading practice. NMFS officials said they are waiting to finalize regional action plans for implementing the strategy before determining whether such measures may be necessary. GAO reviewed the proposed measures in NMFS' draft regional action plans and found that they aligned with some key attributes of successful performance measures. But, most of the measures did not contain other key attributes, such as measurable targets. By incorporating key attributes when developing performance measures and assessing whether agency-wide measures may also be needed, NMFS may be in a better position to determine the extent to which the objectives of its strategy overall are being achieved.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that NMFS (1) develop guidance on incorporating climate information into the fisheries management process and (2) incorporate key attributes of successful performance measures in the regional action plans and assess whether agency-wide measures for the climate science strategy may be needed. The agency agreed with GAO's recommendations.