The largest opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will go first, on September 21. The following day, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will hold its internal election, with the winner set to assume Japan's premiership by virtue of the LDP's majority in the Lower House, the more powerful of Japan's two parliamentary chambers. Taro Aso (67 years old) is widely considered to be the front-runner. During his stint as Foreign Minister (2005-2006), he and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to deepen Japan's alliance with the United States. Aso has a reputation as a "revisionist" on historical issues, which could lead to tensions with China and South Korea if he becomes prime minister. The DPJ's Platform

If Lower House elections are held in the near future, the DPJ is expected to use the same strategy of emphasizing economic and social issues that propelled it to victory in the July 2007 elections for the Upper House of Japan's Diet. As a result, for much of its history, the DPJ has a reputation of not being able to formulate coherent alternative policies to the LDP. Implications for the United States6

In general, U.S. interests are likely to be negatively affected by political gridlock in Tokyo. Afghanistan

The political gridlock in Tokyo does not bode well for the continuation of Japanese support of the U.S.-led Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) in Afghanistan. Most analysts think that even Aso, who is known as a nationalist politician, is likely to follow Abe and Fukuda's lead and avoid provoking China.
On September 1, 2008, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda stunned observers by resigning his post, saying that a new leader might be able to avoid the "political vacuum" that he faced in office. Fukuda's 11-month tenure was marked by low approval ratings, a sputtering economy, and virtual paralysis in policymaking, as the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) used its control of the Upper House of Japan's parliament (the Diet) to delay or halt most government proposals. On September 22, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will elect a new president, who will become Japan's third prime minister in as many years. Ex-Foreign Minister Taro Aso, a popular figure known for his conservative foreign policy credentials and support for increased deficit spending, is widely expected to win. Many analysts expect that the new premier will dissolve the Lower House and call for parliamentary elections later in the fall. As a result, Japanese policymaking is likely to enter a period of disarray, which could negatively affect several items of interest to the United States, including the passage of budgets to support the realignment of U.S. forces in Japan and the renewal of legislation that authorizes the deployment of Japanese navy vessels that are refueling ships supporting U.S.-led operations in Afghanistan.
This report analyzes the factors behind and implications of Japan's current political turmoil. It will be updated as warranted by events.