Best Available Data Cannot Be Used to Make Insights about Spillover Crime but Show a General Decline in Reported Crime Rates in Counties with Sufficiently Complete Data along the Southwest Border

UCR SRS data provide the best available information on crime levels and  crime trends in southwest border counties. Further, the SRS  does not collect enough information, such as a motivation for committing  a crime, to identify a link between violent or property crime rates and  crimes associated with spillover from Mexico, such as drug trafficking. The violent crime  rate in border counties in New Mexico was lower by 8 percent in 2011  than in 2005, and in nonborder counties the decrease was 19 percent. Few Law Enforcement Agencies Track Spillover Crime along the Southwest Border

		Federal Law Enforcement Agencies

Federal law enforcement agencies have few efforts under way to track  what might be considered to be spillover crime, including violence, for  several reasons. First, while several federal components established a  definition of spillover crime, there is no common government definition of  such crime. Second, DHS and DOJ components, including those that  have a formal definition of spillover crime, either do not collect data for the  purposes of tracking spillover crime, or do not maintain such data in an  automated format that can be readily retrieved and analyzed. As discussed previously in this report, the Texas  Department of Public Safety and the DHS Office of Intelligence and  Analysis are leading an effort by select state and local law enforcement  agencies to propose new terms and definitions and identify metrics for  various facets of border-related crime and violence by March 2013. However, officials  stated that spillover incidents reported by the department cannot be used  to analyze trends over time because they are not collected systematically  and may be incomplete. Specifically, officials from 22 out of 37 state and  local agencies stated that they have limited technological, financial, and  human resources to collect additional data. Law Enforcement Agencies Have Varying Concerns about Potential Effects of Violent Crime in Mexico on Border Communities

		Federal Concerns

Officials from all of the DHS and DOJ components we interviewed stated  that while they do not believe that spillover violence has been a significant  problem, they expressed concerns about the potential for it to occur in the  future because drug cartels employ increasingly violent methods to  interact with rivals and law enforcement agencies in Mexico. State and Local Concerns

Officials from 37 state and local law enforcement agencies and four  Chambers of Commerce we interviewed expressed varying concerns  regarding the extent to which violent crime from Mexico spills into and  potentially affects their border communities. Officials in 31 of the 37 state  and local law enforcement agencies stated that they have not observed  violent crime from Mexico regularly spilling into their counties;  nonetheless, officials from 33 of the 37 agencies said they are at least  somewhat concerned about the potential for spillover crime to occur. Law Enforcement Agencies Have Initiatives that Target Border-related Crime, Including a Federal Contingency Plan to Address Violent Crime Spilling Over from Mexico

At the federal level, officials from DOJ and DHS and their components  stated that they have undertaken a number of efforts, both individually  and through interagency partnerships, related to drug smuggling and  cartel activity with a focus on the southwest border; however, all but one  of these efforts do not specifically target spillover crime. DHS developed the Operations Plan for Southwest Border Violence in  October 2008 to address the possibility that spillover crime, such as a  significant violent and spontaneous event that results in unintended  cascading effects spilling over the border, may exceed DHS’s assets to  respond in those locations. At the state and local levels, officials from all law enforcement agencies  that we spoke with stated that their agencies had undertaken some  efforts, either individually or in partnership with other agencies, to combat  criminal activities often associated with spillover crime, such as drug and  human smuggling. Arizona

	California

	New Mexico

	Texas

Appendix II: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

This report addresses the following questions: (1) What information do  reported crime rates in southwest border communities provide on  spillover crime and what do they show? (2) What efforts, if any, have  federal, state, and select local law enforcement agencies made to track  spillover crime along the southwest border? (3) What concerns, if any, do  these agencies have about spillover crime? (4) What steps, if any, have  these agencies taken to address spillover crime? To address the first question, we analyzed Summary Reporting System  (SRS) data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s (FBI) Uniform  Crime Reporting (UCR) Program—the government’s centralized  repository for crime data—from January 2004 through December 2011 for  the four southwest border states (Arizona, California, New Mexico, and  Texas). For the border counties in each of  the other states, we found that the violent crime rate was lower in 2011  than in 2004, and the rate in the border counties decreased more than in  the nonborder counties. For border counties, the rate was 26 percent lower in 2011 than in  2004.
Why GAO Did This Study

Drug-related homicides have dramatically increased in recent years in Mexico along the nearly 2,000-mile border it shares with the United States. U.S. federal, state, and local officials have stated that the prospect of crime, including violence, spilling over from Mexico into the southwestern United States is a concern. GAO was asked to review crime rates and assess information on spillover crime along the border. Specifically, this report addresses: (1) What information do reported crime rates in southwest border communities provide on spillover crime and what do they show? (2) What efforts, if any, have federal, state, and select local law enforcement agencies made to track spillover crime along the southwest border? (3) What concerns, if any, do these agencies have about spillover crime? (4) What steps, if any, have these agencies taken to address spillover crime?
GAO analyzed crime data from all of the 24 southwest border counties from 2004 through 2011 and federal documentation, such as threat assessments and DHS's plans for addressing violence along the southwest border. GAO interviewed officials from DHS and DOJ and their components. GAO also interviewed officials from 37 state and local law enforcement agencies responsible for investigating and tracking crime in the border counties in the four southwest border states (Arizona, California, New Mexico, and Texas). While the results of the interviews are not generalizable, they provided insights. GAO is not making any recommendations. DHS provided comments, which highlighted border-related crime initiatives recognized by GAO.

What GAO Found

The Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, the government's centralized repository for crime data, provides the only available standardized way to track crime levels in border counties over time. However, UCR data lack information on whether reported offenses are attributable to spillover crime, and have other limitations, such as underreporting to police. Also, UCR data cannot be used to identify links with crimes often associated with spillover from Mexico, such as cartel-related drug trafficking. Cognizant of these limitations, GAO's analysis of data for southwest border counties with sufficiently complete data show that, generally, both violent and property crimes were lower in 2011 than in 2004. For example, the violent crime rate in three states' border counties was lower by at least 26 percent in 2011 than in 2004 and in one other state lower by 8 percent in 2011 than in 2005.
Law enforcement agencies have few efforts to track spillover crime. No common federal government definition of such crime exists, and Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Department of Justice (DOJ) components, including those with a definition, either do not collect data to track spillover crime, or do not maintain such data that can be readily retrieved and analyzed. However, several components collect violent incident data that could serve as indirect indicators of spillover crime. For example, GAO analysis of U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data show that, generally, assaults on agents between southwest border ports of entry were about 25 percent lower in 2012 than in 2006. State and local law enforcement agencies, except for one state agency, do not track what might be considered to be spillover crime because they lack a common definition and do not systematically collect these crime data in a way that can be used to analyze trends. Officials from 22 of 37 state and local agencies told GAO that they have limited resources to collect additional data. Since April 2012, DHS and the Texas Department of Public Safety have coled an effort to propose definitions and metrics for border-related crime by March 2013.
Law enforcement agencies have varying concerns regarding the extent to which violent crime from Mexico spills into southwest border communities. While DHS and DOJ threat assessments indicate that violent infighting between drug cartels has remained largely in Mexico, DHS assessments also show that aggressive tactics used by traffickers to evade capture demonstrate an increasing threat to U.S. law enforcement. Also, officials in 31 of the 37 state and local agencies stated that they have not observed violent crime from Mexico regularly spilling into their counties; nonetheless, officials in 33 of the 37 agencies were at least somewhat concerned, for example, for the safety of their personnel or residents.
Law enforcement agencies have undertaken initiatives to target border-related crime, including one effort to address violent crime spilling over from Mexico. For example, in October 2008, DHS developed a contingency plan for the possibility that a significant southwest border violence escalation may exceed DHS assets' ability to respond. In addition, officials from all state and local law enforcement agencies that GAO spoke with said their agencies had undertaken some efforts, either individually or in partnership with others, to combat criminal activities often associated with spillover crime, such as drug and human smuggling.