Increased SFOR Support for Dayton’s Civil Aspects

With the increased international emphasis on implementing the Dayton Agreement, beginning in mid-1997 SFOR increased its support for the civilian components of the peace operation. SFOR’s mission will remain the same, but overall SFOR force levels are expected to decrease by November 1998. The new Multinational Specialized Unit began operations in late August 1998 but with force levels far below operational requirements due to the lack of force commitments from troop contributing countries. This assessment—based on troop-to-task analyses for various mission options—showed that (a) if the SFOR follow-on force were to continue SFOR’s current mission, the United States would have to maintain its current force levels of about 8,500 troops and its current force structure in Bosnia, particularly its combat capability that included three U.S. combat battalions and two aviation task forces; and (b) if security conditions in Bosnia substantially improved and SFOR’s mission were to be reduced to providing restricted support for civil implementation, the United States could withdraw one of the three U.S. combat battalions from Bosnia and thereby reduce the number of U.S. troops there to 6,900. NATO plans to continue the practice of reviewing SFOR operations at least every 6 months to determine whether changes in conditions in Bosnia would allow changes to SFOR’s tasks and force structure. Multinational Specialized Unit

According to NATO officials and documents, the Multinational Specialized Unit—which has been described as a paramilitary, constabulary, or gendarmerie-type unit—will assist in dealing with civil disturbances associated with the return of refugees and displaced persons and the installation of elected officials. According to SACEUR, the Multinational Specialized Unit is not a replacement for SFOR’s combat battalions either in the near or long term; it will leave Bosnia before or at the same time as SFOR combat units. Development of NATO’s Transition Strategy

As outlined in NATO documents, NATO’s strategy for transitioning NATO-led forces out of Bosnia consists of (1) reducing the size, role, and profile of the SFOR follow-on force as conditions in Bosnia improve; and (2) progressively transferring responsibilities to Bosnia’s institutions, other civil authorities, the United Nations, the High Representative, OSCE, and other international organizations as appropriate. According to DOD officials, the drawdown criteria are expected to be developed before NATO’s next 6-month review of SFOR operations. According to SACEUR, in determining when and by how much to draw down forces, NATO will look at such things as the level of cooperation and security conditions in particular geographic areas in Bosnia and the way in which NATO troops contribute to the accomplishment of each one of the executive branch “benchmarks.”
According to DOD officials, the operation plan for the SFOR follow-on force directs SFOR to develop drawdown criteria in conjunction with the peace operation’s principal civilian organizations. Recent Events and SFOR’s Next 6-Month Review

Although NATO has not yet finalized its drawdown criteria, DOD, State, and NATO have recognized that the results of the September 1998 elections, along with other changes in Bosnia’s political and security conditions, will play a large role in NATO’s upcoming decision on whether conditions would allow a further reduction in SFOR force levels. The peace operation’s military component consists of a NATO-led military force. GAO Comments

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. We did not intend for our report to leave the impression that NATO allies are not fully supportive of force requirements for the SFOR mission; rather, we had intended to describe the U.S. military and NATO/SFOR planning processes for the SFOR follow-on force and to illustrate how operational requirements for the force appeared to be driven by the planned reduction in U.S. forces in Bosnia.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO provided information on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)-led military force in Bosnia, known as the Stabilization Force (SFOR), focusing on: (1) how SFOR's operations in Bosnia have changed since mid-1997, particularly its support for the operation's civil aspects, and whether any such changes have exceeded SFOR's defined mission; (2) the mission and force structure of the post-June 1998 SFOR follow-on force, including the decisionmaking sequence for U.S. participation in the force and the status of developing the force's new Multinational Specialized Unit; and (3) NATO's transition strategy for removing NATO-led forces.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) the increased emphasis on implementing the Dayton Agreement that began in mid-1997 included an intensified effort by SFOR to support the agreement's civil provisions, but the force continued to employ most of its resources to control the Bosniak, Bosnian Croat, and Bosnian Serb militaries; (2) the mission and force structure of the SFOR follow-on force will remain largely the same as prior to June 1998; (3) SFOR levels in Bosnia increased from about 31,700 troops in August 1998 to about 36,100 troops at the time of the September elections in Bosnia but are expected to decrease again by November 1998; (4) in light of SFOR's need to deal with civil disturbances, NATO established a new Multinational Specialized Unit, a paramilitary- or gendarmerie-type unit, within SFOR; (5) as of September 1998, only part of the specialized unit was operational because countries have not yet committed sufficient resources to the unit; (6) this new unit will not replace U.S. or other SFOR combat units; (7) after considering several military analyses and a range of factors, the executive branch decided in January 1998 to reduce the U.S. troop level for the SFOR follow-on force from about 8,500 troops in Bosnia to about 6,900 troops; (8) after the drawdown decision was made, the U.S. military identified ways to reduce U.S. force levels; (9) NATO then lowered operational requirements for the follow-on force; (10) NATO will continue its practice of reviewing SFOR operations every 6 months to determine whether SFOR force levels could be further reduced; (11) NATO has developed a transition strategy for an eventual disengagement from Bosnia; (12) NATO has not fully developed specific criteria for determining when conditions would allow SFOR combat units to draw down and withdraw, but was in the process of doing so; (13) the NATO transition strategy consists largely of turning over various activities to local authorities or the peace operation's civilian organizations as conditions permit; (14) the transition strategy calls for the Multinational Specialized Unit to leave Bosnia before or at the same time as SFOR's combat units; (15) according to Department of Defense and NATO officials, specific drawdown criteria are expected to be developed before NATO's next 6-month review of SFOR operations; and (16) during this review, NATO will assess changes to the security and political conditions in Bosnia, including the results of the September 1998 elections, and determine whether SFOR force levels could be further reduced.