Conclusion

The Department is working to ensure that the requirements determination  process results in accurate numbers and types of munitions necessary to  defeat threats as specified in the Defense Planning Guidance. While the  Department has made progress and has identified specific areas still  requiring attention, there is no clear plan with time frames for resolving  key issues. Some of these issues have only been partially completed and  others are in the early stages of evolution. Specifically, target templates  have not been completed and munitions effectiveness data has not been  updated, nor have decisions been made regarding more detailed  warfighting scenarios and the ranking of scenarios. Consequently, the  reliability of the services’ munitions requirements remain uncertain and  could adversely affect munitions planning, programming, budgeting, and  industrial production base decisions. Until these issues are resolved and a  revised Capabilities-Based Management Requirements instruction is  issued, the accuracy of the munitions requirements will remain uncertain. Specific areas needing attention  include    completing target templates,    publishing the updated munitions effectiveness data,  resolving the issues involving the level of detail to include in the Defense  Planning Guidance and whether to attach probability data to the  warfighting scenarios,  incorporating all improvements to the munitions requirement process in a  revised Capabilities-Based Munitions Requirements instruction, and    establishing a time frame for reassessing munitions requirements once all  improvements have been implemented.
What GAO Found

To determine the number and type of munitions needed, the military annually evaluates its munition requirements using a multiphase analytical process. The Department of Defense (DOD) is working to ensure that the requirements determination process yields accurate numbers and the types of munitions needed to defeat threats specified in the Defense Planning Guidance. Although DOD has made progress and has identified specific areas still requiring attention, there is no clear plan with time frames for resolving key issues. Some of these issues have only been partially completed and others are in the early stages of evolution. Specifically, target templates have not been completed and munitions effectiveness data has not been updated, nor have decisions been made on more detailed warfighting scenarios and the ranking of scenarios. Consequently, the reliability of the services' munitions requirements remain uncertain and could affect munitions planning, programming, budgeting, and industrial production base decisions. Until these issues are resolved and a revised Capabilities-Based Management Requirements instruction is issued, the accuracy of the munitions requirements will remain uncertain.