These objectives were to (1) provide a secure environment for the people of Bosnia; (2) create a unified, democratic Bosnia that respects the rule of law and internationally recognized human rights, including cooperating with the war crimes tribunal in arresting and bringing those charged with war crimes to trial; (3) ensure the rights of refugees and displaced persons to return to their prewar homes; and (4) rebuild the economy. U.S. and other officials view progress on this issue as central to the achievement of the Dayton Agreement’s objectives. This policy has been implemented by all three ethnic groups during and after the war. The biggest obstacle to progress in economic reconstruction and economic institution building has been the lack of cooperation among Bosnia’s political leaders in implementing infrastructure projects and economic institutions that would unite the ethnic groups within the Federation and across the two entities. Issues Emphasized During June 1997 Visit to Bosnia

During our June 1997 visit to Bosnia, numerous U.S. and international officials involved in trying to help implement the Dayton Agreement emphasized four areas as being critically important to the agreement’s success: (1) the urgent need to arrest Radovan Karadzic; (2) the upcoming municipal elections, specifically the potentially contentious installation of municipal governments in areas that had a different ethnic composition before the war; (3) the outcome of the arbitration decision over control of Brcko; and (4) the need for a continued international military force, along with a U.S. component, in Bosnia after SFOR’s mission ends in June 1998. According to international observers, however, these efforts to remove Karadzic from power did not work; instead, he has effectively retained his control and grown in popularity among people in Republika Srpska. During our June 1997 fieldwork in Bosnia, many officials with whom we spoke were unequivocal in their opinion that Radovan Karadzic must be arrested or otherwise removed from the scene in Bosnia as soon as possible. They told us that Karadzic, a leader who is not accountable to the electorate, is blocking international efforts to work with the more “moderate” Bosnian Serb political leaders in implementing the Dayton Agreement. Issues Related to Municipal Elections

Bosnia’s municipal elections are scheduled to be held on September 13 and 14, 1997. In June 1997, the High Representative, the coordinator of the civilian aspects of the peace operation, stated that Brcko will signal to the rest of the world the extent to which progress is being made in the implementation of the Dayton Agreement. First, some background on the Brcko arbitration process. At Dayton, Bosnia’s political leaders were unable to agree on which ethnic group would control the strategically important area in and around the city of Brcko. As in other parts of Republika Srpska, Bosnian Serb political leaders refuse to cooperate with IPTF in restructuring their police in accordance with democratic policing standards. U.S. participation in such an effort could push the final cost significantly higher than the current $7.8 billion estimate.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO discussed international efforts to promote an enduring peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina through the implementation of the 1995 Dayton Agreement.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) the internationally-supported peace operation in Bosnia, part of a longer-term peace process, has helped that country take important first steps toward achieving the Dayton Agreement's goals; (2) progress has been made in establishing some political and economic institutions, and economic recovery has started in the Federation; (3) nevertheless, the transition to a unified, democratic government that respects the rule of law has not occurred, due principally to the failure of Bosnia's political leaders to fulfill their obligations under the Dayton Agreement and to promote political and social reconciliation; (4) very few refugees and displaced persons have crossed ethnic lines to return to their prewar homes, primarily due to resistance from political leaders of all three major ethnic groups; (5) virtually all of the limited progress on the civil aspects has resulted from strong international pressure on these often resistant political leaders; (6) during GAO's June 1997 visit, nearly every international and U.S. official with whom GAO spoke, including senior North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officers, were adamant that Radovan Karadzic, a Bosnian Serb who was indicted by the war crimes tribunal, must be arrested or otherwise removed from Bosnia; (7) most were unequivocal on this matter, and stated that he retains political power and influence over political figures in Republika Srpska, the Bosnian Serb entity; (8) so far, according to these officials, he has seen fit to block every significant move toward reconciliation; (9) other key issues identified as being critically important to the Dayton Agreement's success include the municipal elections scheduled for September 13 and 14, 1997, specifically the potentially contentious installation of some newly-elected municipal governments, the outcome of the arbitration decision concerning which ethnic group will control the strategically important city of Brcko in Republika Srpska, and the issue of whether an international military force, including the U.S. military, should remain in Bosnia after the current NATO-led mission ends in June 1998; (10) however, even if President Plavsic wins the political struggle with more hardline Bosnian Serb political leaders, GAO believes that full implementation of the Dayton Agreement--in other words, full political and social reconciliation in Bosnia--will remain a long and difficult process; and (11) the total estimated cost for U.S. participation in the operation has risen to $7.8 billion.