In  prior censuses, the Bureau has generally included “federally affiliated”  groups—members of the military and federal employees and their  dependents—but has excluded private citizens residing abroad from all but  the 1960 and 1970 Censuses. Scope and Methodology

As agreed with your offices, our objectives for this report were to assess  (1) whether the Bureau implemented the test consistent with its design,  and (2) the initial lessons learned from the test results and their  implications for future overseas enumerations. Return on Investment for Overseas Enumeration is Low

Not only were response levels low, they were extremely expensive to  obtain on a unit basis—roughly $1,450 for each returned questionnaire,  based on the $7.8 million the Bureau spent preparing for, implementing,  and evaluating the 2004 overseas test. In contrast, the unit cost of the 2000  Census was about $56 per household. Although the two surveys are not  directly comparable because the 2000 Census costs covered operations not  used in the overseas test, the 2000 Census was still the most expensive  census in our nation’s history. The effort helped secure a 72-percent return rate. Replicating this level of effort on a worldwide basis would be impractical,  and still would not produce a complete count. Ensuring a Smooth Overseas Enumeration Could Stretch the Bureau’s Resources

The Bureau’s experience in conducting the 2004 overseas test underscored  the difficulties of administering a complex operation from thousands of  miles away. For example, during the overseas test, the Bureau found that French  privacy laws restrict the collection of personal data such as race and ethnic  information. The Design of the Overseas Census Lacks the Building Blocks of a Successful Census

The Bureau’s experience in counting the nation’s population for the 2000  and earlier censuses sheds light on some of the specific operations and  other elements that together form the building blocks of a successful head  count  (see fig. The Bureau has found that response rates to mandatory  surveys are higher than the response rates to voluntary surveys. Although more comprehensive results will not be  available until the Bureau completes its evaluation of the test early next  year, a key lesson learned is already clear:  The current approach to  counting this population group—a voluntary survey that largely relies on  marketing to ensure a complete count—would be costly and yield poor  results. What’s more, the Bureau already faces the difficult task of carrying out a  cost-effective stateside enumeration in 2010. Furthermore, the Bureau noted, “should Congress  request and fund” further research on counting overseas Americans, it  would be equipped to do that research itself.
Why GAO Did This Study

The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) has typically counted overseas members of the military, federal civilian employees, and their dependents. However, it usually excluded private citizens residing abroad. In July 2004, the Bureau completed a test of the practicality of counting all overseas Americans. GAO was asked to assess (1) whether the Bureau implemented the test consistent with its design, and (2) the lessons learned from the test results.

What GAO Found

The Bureau generally implemented the overseas census test on schedule and consistent with its research design. Still, participation was poor, with just 5,390 questionnaires returned from the three test sites--France, Kuwait, and Mexico. Moreover, because of the low response levels, obtaining those questionnaires proved to be quite expensive--around $1,450 per response, which is far costlier on a unit basis than the 2000 Census. Although the two are not directly comparable because the 2000 Census included operations not used in the overseas test, the 2000 Census cost around $56 per household. Further, boosting the response rate globally might not be practical. On the domestic front, during the 2000 Census, the Bureau spent $374 million on a months-long publicity campaign that consisted of television and other advertising that helped yield a 72-percent return rate. Replicating this level of effort on a worldwide basis would be difficult, and still would not produce a complete count. Ensuring a smooth overseas count could also stretch the Bureau's resources. For example, at each test site the Bureau encountered various challenges that needed to be resolved such as French privacy laws. Moreover, managing a complex operation from thousands of miles away also proved difficult. The approach used to count the overseas population in the 2004 test--a voluntary survey that largely relies on marketing to secure a complete count, lacks the basic building blocks of a successful census. The Bureau has done some initial research on alternatives, but all require more extensive review. Given that the Bureau already faces the difficult task of securing a successful stateside count in 2010, having to simultaneously count Americans abroad would only add to the challenges facing the Bureau.