	Introduction

Foreign ballistic and cruise missiles pose a potential threat to the national security interestsof the United States. Several other countries have missiles withinrange of U.S. overseas facilities and interests. While not posing a direct threat to the United States, theproliferation of shorter range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles has resulted in heightened regionaltensions in the Middle East, between India and Pakistan, and between China and Taiwan. A Declining Ballistic Missile Threat? (5) Given these decreases, the threat is characterized by some asfollows:
There is a widespread capability to launch short-rangemissiles;
There is a slowly growing, but limited, capability to launch medium-rangemissiles;
A decreasing number of long-range missiles from Cold War levels that willcontinue to drop significantly over the next fifteen years;
A possibility that one or two new nations could acquire a limited capability tolaunch long-range missiles over the next two decades;
Likelihood of a nation attacking the United States or Europe with a ballisticmissile is exceptionally low. The most worrisome trend is the growing number of countries with both long-rangemissile and WMD programs. SouthAfrica reportedly dismantled the nuclear weapons and missiles that it had developed. The MTCR was designed to slow the proliferation of ballistic and cruise missiles,rockets, and unmanned air vehicles (UAV) capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction. Russia

Russia's ICBM force - although greatly diminished in size over the years - continues to posea significant threat to U.S. national security. Newer versions of these missiles that are being deployed feature improved range and accuracy andis believed to be exploring how these and other ballistic missiles can be used for anti-access andsea-denial purposes. (58) It is also believed that this LACM can carry both nuclear andconventional payloads. North Korea has allegedly exported ballisticmissiles and associated technologies to a number of countries and some analysts suggest that thesetransfers have advanced the recipient's missile programs by many years. Current Assessments. (83)
Missile Proliferation. A Resumption of Ballistic Missile Test Flights? At least nine countries will be involved in producing theseweapons. (126) As already discussed,China is developing the HN series of land attack cruise missiles as well as a number of otheranti-ship, and air, ground, submarine and ship-launched cruise missiles. Implications

Based on reported program progress, it is reasonable to conclude that the development andacquisition of ballistic and cruise missiles continues to remain a central security goal for a numberof countries of concern to the United States. While shorter-range ballistic missiles are of concern,particularly in terms of their use on the battlefield, a number of combat proven and developmentalballistic missile defense systems -- such as the U.S. Patriot and the Israeli Arrow -- provide a meansto counter these systems. China, a country that has had long-range ballistic missiles and nuclearwarheads for a number of decades, appears to be modernizing and upgrading its capability, notnecessarily to directly rival or surpass the United States but, as some suggest, as a means to obtaineven greater strategic "freedom of action." Some analysts contend thatpast Administrations relied too heavily on nonproliferation activities (which are considerably lessexpensive and controversial than many counterproliferation programs) and blame this imbalance forthe current state of missile proliferation. U.S. The primary means by which this goal isto be achieved is through counterproliferation and nonproliferation activities.
This report provides a current summary of ballistic and cruise missile activity in selectedcountries and discusses implications for U.S. national security policy. The Defense ThreatReduction Agency's Weapons of Mass Destruction Terms of Reference Handbook defines a ballisticmissile as "a missile that is guided during powered flight and unguided during free flight when thetrajectory that it follows is subject only to the external influences of gravity and atmospheric drag"and a cruise missile as "a long-range, low-flying guided missile that can be launched from air, sea,and land." Ballistic and cruise missile development and proliferation continue to pose a threat toU.S. national security interests both at home and abroad. Approximately 35 countries currentlypossess operational ballistic missiles of various ranges and approximately 25 countries haveoperational cruise missiles with a range greater than 150 km (90 miles). Some analysts considercruise missile proliferation to be of more concern than that of ballistic missile proliferation, primarilydue to their low threshold of use, availability, affordability, and accuracy. This report will beupdated annually.
With the fall of Iraq and the voluntary termination of Libya's ballistic missile program, manyview North Korean and Iranian missile and WMD programs as the primary "rogue nation"long-range ballistic missile threat to U.S. national security. Russia and China continue to be the onlytwo countries that could conceivably attack the United States with intercontinental ballistic missilesarmed with nuclear weapons, but improved relationships with both countries have done a great dealto diminish this threat over past decades. India's and Pakistan's ongoing missile developmentprograms are viewed by many as highly aggressive and even provocative, but are generally viewedin a regional context as opposed to a direct threat to the United States. The renewal of dialoguebetween these two countries in an attempt to settle their disputes by diplomatic means may also helpin slowing proliferation as well as preventing their potential use in this region.
The implications of ballistic and cruise missile proliferation to the United States hasnecessitated both nonproliferation and counterproliferation approaches in trying to stem thedevelopment, deployment, and export of missiles. Past Administrations have been characterized asnonproliferation-oriented by some analysts while the current Bush Administration is viewed by someas having abandoned traditional nonproliferation for a more action-oriented approach towardsmissile proliferation. Other experts have suggested that the United States must somehow find theright balance between missile nonproliferation and counterproliferation policies if meaningful,long-term progress is to be made. While some believe that missile proliferation can be "rolled back"by some combination of these approaches, others note that both ballistic and cruise missiles havebecome such an integral part of many countries' national security frameworks, that it is highlyunlikely that countries will abandon their programs in deference to U.S. pressure.