Threat Assessment

The instability in western Pakistan has broad implications for international terrorism, for Pakistani stability, and for U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. From the State Department's Country Reports on Terrorism 2007 (released April 2008):
The United States remained concerned that the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan were being used as a safe haven for Al Qaeda terrorists, Afghan insurgents, and other extremists.... Extremists led by Baitullah Mehsud and other Al Qaeda-related extremists re-exerted their hold in areas of South Waziristan.... Extremists have also gained footholds in the settled areas bordering the FATA. The commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, and his aides, assert that Pakistan's western tribal regions provide the main pool for recruiting insurgents who fight in Afghanistan, and that infiltration from Afghanistan has caused a 30% increase in number of militant attacks in eastern Afghanistan over the past year. Another senior U.S. military officer estimated that militant infiltration from Pakistan now accounts for about one-third of the attacks on coalition troops in Afghanistan. (It is not formally designated as a "Foreign Terrorist Organization.") They ask interested partners to enhance their own efforts to control the border region by undertaking an expansion of military deployments and checkposts on the Afghan side of the border, by engaging more robust intelligence sharing, and by continuing to supply the counterinsurgency equipment requested by Pakistan. In addition to the TTP, several other Islamist militant groups are active in the region. Pakistani ground troops have undertaken operations against militants in the Bajaur agency beginning in early August. The Pakistan army reportedly backs these militias and the NWFP governor expresses hope that they will turn the tide against Taliban insurgents. Efforts are underway to rescind or reform the FCR, and the civilian government seated in Islamabad in 2008 has vowed to work to bring the FATA under the more effective writ of the state. U.S. Policy

U.S. policy in the FATA seeks to combine better coordinated U.S. and Pakistani military efforts to neutralize militant threats in the short term with economic development initiatives meant to reduce extremism in Pakistan over the longer-term. Also, U.S. commanders have praised October 2008 Pakistani military moves against militant enclaves in the tribal areas, and U.S. and Pakistani forces are jointly waging the "Operation Lionheart" offensive against militants on both sides of the border, north of the Khyber Pass. Increased Direct U.S. Military Action

Although U.S.-Pakistan military cooperation is improving in late 2008, U.S. officials are increasingly employing new tactics to combat militant concentrations in Pakistan without directly violating Pakistan's limitations on the U.S. ability to operate "on the ground" in Pakistan. U.S. forces in Afghanistan now acknowledge that they shell purported Taliban positions on the Pakistani side of the border, and do some "hot pursuit" a few kilometers over the border into Pakistan. Security-Related Equipment

Major government-to-government arms sales and grants to Pakistan since 2001 have included items useful for counterterrorism operations, along with a number of "big ticket" platforms more suited to conventional warfare. According to the State Department, U.S. assistance to Pakistan is meant primarily to maintain that country's ongoing support for U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts.
Increasing militant activity in western Pakistan poses three key national security threats: an increased potential for major attacks against the United States itself; a growing threat to Pakistani stability; and a hindrance of U.S. efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. This report will be updated as events warrant.
A U.S.-Pakistan relationship marked by periods of both cooperation and discord was transformed by the September 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States and the ensuing enlistment of Pakistan as a key ally in U.S.-led counterterrorism efforts. Top U.S. officials have praised Pakistan for its ongoing cooperation, although long-held doubts exist about Islamabad's commitment to some core U.S. interests. Pakistan is identified as a base for terrorist groups and their supporters operating in Kashmir, India, and Afghanistan. Since 2003, Pakistan's army has conducted unprecedented and largely ineffectual counterterrorism operations in the country's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) bordering Afghanistan, where Al Qaeda operatives and pro-Taliban insurgents are said to enjoy "safe haven." Militant groups have only grown stronger and more aggressive in 2008. Islamabad's new civilian-led government vows to combat militancy in the FATA through a combination of military force, negotiation with "reconcilable" elements, and economic development. The Pakistani military has in late 2008 undertaken major operations aimed at neutralizing armed extremism in the Bajaur agency, and the government is equipping local tribal militias in several FATA agencies with the hope that these can supplement efforts to bring the region under more effective state writ.
The upsurge of militant activity on the Pakistan side of the border is harming the U.S.-led stabilization mission in Afghanistan, by all accounts. U.S. commanders in Afghanistan attribute much of the deterioration in security conditions in the south and east over the past year to increased militant infiltration from Pakistan. U.S. policymakers are putting in place a series of steps to try to address the deficiencies of the Afghan government and other causes of support for Afghan Taliban militants, but they are also undertaking substantial new security measures to stop the infiltration.
A key, according to U.S. commanders, is to reduce militant infiltration into Afghanistan from Pakistan. To do so, U.S. General David McKiernan, the overall commander in Afghanistan, is "redefining" the Afghan battlefield to include the Pakistan border regions, and U.S. forces are becoming somewhat more aggressive in trying to disrupt, from the Afghan side of the border, militant operational preparations and encampments on the Pakistani side of the border. At the same time, Gen. McKiernan and other U.S. commanders are trying to rebuild a stalled Afghanistan-Pakistan-U.S./NATO military coordination process, building intelligence and information sharing centers, and attempting to build greater trust among the senior ranks of the Pakistani military.