Past experience has also underscored the importance of strong oversight  of the census to (1) inform congressional decision making on budgetary  and operational matters, (2) raise Congress’s confidence that the Bureau  has chosen an optimum design and will manage operations and control  costs effectively, and (3) help ensure the progress the Bureau has made  thus far in refining, planning, and testing census-taking activities,  continues as the Bureau shifts into the operational phases of the  decennial. Bureau officials  estimate the total life-cycle cost of the 2010 Census will be around $11.3  billion, which would make it the most expensive census in our country’s  history, even after adjusting for inflation. 1). The Bureau’s Preparations for 2010 Are Progressing but Certain Challenges Will Need to Be Addressed

The Bureau’s preparations for the 2010 Census appear to be further along  than at a similar point during the planning cycle for the 2000 Census. For  example, the fundamental design of the 2010 Census has the potential to  contain costs and improve coverage and accuracy, and the Bureau’s  planning process for 2010 is generally more thorough than was the case  for the 2000 Census. Moreover, the Bureau has taken steps to resolve the issues that  have surfaced. What will be important is how effectively the Bureau manages  those risks. The Unreliability of Mobile Computing Devices Has Been Problematic

Of particular concern is the previous unreliability of the MCDs the Bureau  plans to use for its address canvassing and nonresponse follow-up  operations (see fig. The move from paper to digital was a very positive step. The Bureau has acknowledged  that the MCD’s performance is an issue, but believes it will be addressed  as part of its contract for the Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA)  program, which is aimed at automating the Bureau’s field data collection  efforts, and is scheduled to be awarded later this month (the MCDs used  for the 2006 test are off-the-shelf purchases that were customized by the  Bureau). In our June 2005 report, we noted that the Bureau has projected that  45 percent of its workforce will be eligible to retire by 2010. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita Highlight the Importance of Disaster Preparedness

On August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated the coastal communities  of Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Alabama. Consequently, a key question is whether the Bureau’s existing  operations are adequate for capturing the migration that has taken place  along the Gulf Coast, the various types of dwellings in which people live,  and the changes to roads and other geographic features that have  occurred, or does the Bureau need to develop enhanced and/or additional  procedures to account for them? 2. 3. Thus, in looking toward the future, as the planning and testing  phases of the 2010 Census begin to wind down, it will be important for  Congress to monitor the Bureau’s progress in (1) identifying and  diagnosing problems, (2) devising cost-effective solutions, and (3)  integrating refinements and fixes in time to be evaluated during the Dress  Rehearsal in 2008.
Why GAO Did This Study

Rigorous planning is key to a successful census as it helps ensure greater effectiveness and efficiency. The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the 2010 Census will cost around $11.3 billion, which would make it the most expensive census in our country's history, even after adjusting for inflation. GAO was asked to testify on (1) the Bureau's progress in preparing for the 2010 Census, (2) the challenges that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might pose for the Bureau's future activities, and, (3) more broadly, the importance of planning for a range of events that could severely disrupt the census.

What GAO Found

The Bureau's preparations for the 2010 Census are making progress along several fronts. Of particular note is (1) the re-engineered design of the census, which holds promise for controlling costs and maintaining accuracy; (2) the Bureau's early planning process which was more rigorous than for the 2000 Census; and (3) the Bureau's greater willingness to outsource key census-taking operations that would be difficult for it to carry out on its own. At the same time, it will be important for the Bureau to resolve issues that pose a risk to a successful census. For example, the Bureau plans to use hand-held mobile computing devices (MCD) to develop the census address list and collect data from millions of households that do not respond to the initial census questionnaire. The MCDs are an important step forward because they are designed to replace many of the paper questionnaires and maps that were used in past censuses, and are a key element of the Bureau's Field Data Collection Automation program. The Bureau has never before used the devices in a decennial. In tests held in 2004 and 2006 to date, census workers found the MCDs easy to use, but sometimes unreliable, which reduced efficiency. Some workers also deviated from prescribed procedures which points to the need for better training. The Bureau has taken steps to address these issues and future tests will help determine the effectiveness of the Bureau's actions. The Bureau also faces a possible brain drain, as 45 percent of its workforce will be eligible to retire by 2010. Although the Bureau has taken preventative measures, it could improve those efforts by, among other actions, strengthening the monitoring of its mission-critical workforce. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita highlight the importance of contingency planning and examining whether the Bureau's existing operations are adequate for capturing the demographic and physical changes that have occurred along the Gulf Coast. Overall, as the Bureau's preparations for 2010 continue, it will be important for Congress to monitor the Bureau's progress in (1) identifying and diagnosing problems, (2) devising solutions, and (3) integrating refinements in time to be evaluated during the Census Dress Rehearsal scheduled for 2008.