In our January 2003 report, we estimated that more  than half of the government’s 6,100 career SES members on board as of  October 2000 will have left the service by October 2007. Estimates for SES  attrition at 24 large agencies showed substantial variations in both the  proportion that would be leaving and the effect of those losses on the  gender, racial, and ethnic profile. In developing our estimates of future diversity of the SES corps, we analyzed appointment trends for the  federal government and at 24 large agencies to determine the gender, racial,  and ethnic representation of the SES corps in 2007 if appointment trends  that took place from fiscal years 1995 through 2000 continued. We found that, governmentwide, the only significant change in diversity by 2007  would be an increase in the number of white women, from 19.1 to 23.1  percent, and a corresponding decrease in white men, from 67.1 to 62.1  percent. Our projection of what the SES would look like if recent appointment  trends continued through October 1, 2007, showed variation, with 12  agencies having increased minority representation and 10 having less. To ascertain what the gender, racial, and  ethnic profile of the candidate pool for SES replacements would look like,  we performed the same simulations and projections for GS-15s and GS-14s  as we did for the SES. The results show a somewhat lower proportion of this  workforce will leave. Our simulation shows that  significant numbers of current minority GS-15s and GS-14s will be  employed through fiscal year 2007, and coupled with our projection of  promotions, shows there will be substantial numbers of minorities at both  the GS-15 (8,957) and GS-14 (15,672) levels, meaning that a sufficient  number of minority candidates for appointment to the SES should be  available. Replacing Over Half of the SES Corps Presents a Challenge and an Opportunity for Federal Government

During fiscal years 2001 through 2007, the wave of near-term retirements  and normal attrition for other reasons presents the federal government  with the challenge and opportunity to replace over half of its career SES  corps. Succession planning is also tied to the federal government’s opportunity to  change the diversity of the SES corps through new appointments.
Why GAO Did This Study

The federal government faces large losses in its Senior Executive Service (SES), primarily through retirement but also because of other normal attrition. This presents the government with substantial challenges to ensuring an able management cadre and also provides opportunities to affect the composition of the SES. In a January 2003 report, GAO-03-34 , GAO estimated the number of SES members who would actually leave service through fiscal year 2007 and reviewed the implications for diversity, as defined by gender, race, and ethnicity of the estimated losses. Specifically, GAO estimated by gender, race, and ethnicity the number of members of the career SES who will leave government service from October 1, 2000, through September 30, 2007, and what the profile of the SES will be if appointment trends do not change. GAO made the same estimates for the pool of GS-15s and GS-14s, from whose ranks the vast majority of replacements for departing SES members come, to ascertain the likely composition of that pool.

What GAO Found

More than half of the 6,100 career SES members employed on October 1, 2000, will have left service by October 1, 2007. Using recent SES appointment trends, the only significant changes in diversity would be an increase in the number of white women and an essentially equal decrease in white men. The percentage of GS-15s and GS-14s projected to leave would be lower (47 percent and 34 percent, respectively), and we project that the number of minorities still in the GS-15 and GS-14 workforce would provide agencies sufficient opportunity to select minority members for the SES. Estimates showed substantial variation in the proportion of SES minorities leaving between 24 large agencies and in the effect on those agencies' gender, racial, and ethnic profiles. Minority representation at 10 agencies would decrease and at 12 would increase. Agencies have an opportunity to affect SES replacement trends by developing succession strategies that help achieve a diverse workforce. Along with constructive agency leadership, these strategies could generate a pool of well-prepared women and minorities to boost the diversity of the SES ranks.