However, the Administration was unable to moderate the Taliban's policies, and the United States withheld recognition of the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, formally recognizing no faction as the government. Additional covert options were reportedly also under consideration. A deadline that the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) set in January 2016 for new parliamentary elections—October 15, 2016—was not met. One of the institutional human rights developments since the fall of the Taliban has been the establishment of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC), an oversight body on human rights practices, but its members are appointed by the government and some believe it is not independent. About 4,388 women serve in the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF), making up around 1.4% of the force, though the Afghan government has set a goal to increase the number of women in the ANDSF to 10%. The insurgent challenge to stability in Afghanistan has been sustained by a number of factors, including (1) the small numbers of security forces in many rural areas; (2) logistical and other shortfalls on the part of the ANDSF; (3) safe haven enjoyed by militants in Pakistan; (4) a backlash against civilian casualties caused by military operations; and (5) unrealized public expectations of economic performance and the effectiveness and integrity of Afghan governance. U.S. rules of engagement allow for operations against Al Qaeda, the Islamic State (as of January 2016), and associated groups by affiliation, and against the Taliban and other insurgent groups if they pose an imminent threat to U.S. forces or the ANDSF and the Afghan government (since June 2016). In a disputed selection process, he was succeeded by Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, who in turn was killed by a U.S. unmanned aerial vehicle strike on May 21, 2016. To address Afghan concerns that the deadline signaled decreasing U.S. involvement, a November 2010 NATO summit in Lisbon decided on a gradual transition to Afghan leadership that would be completed by the end of 2014. Asserting that a full U.S. military departure from Afghanistan would continue to focus the Afghans on improving their skills, the President announced in May 2014
The U.S. military contingent in Afghanistan would be 9,800 in 2015, deployed in various parts of Afghanistan, consisting mostly of trainers in the "Resolute Support Mission" (RSM). About 2,000 of the U.S. force would be Special Operations Forces, of which half would conduct counterterrorism missions. And, the killing of Taliban leader Mullah Mansour by a U.S. strike in May 2016 demonstrates Taliban vulnerabilities to U.S. intelligence and combat capabilities, although it has not to date had a measurable effect on Taliban effectiveness. A U.S. commitment to request economic aid for Afghanistan for the duration of the agreement (2014-2024). Since 2002, over $3 billion in assistance to the ANDSF has come from these sources. Since FY2010, the United States has obligated over $3.2 billion for the AAF, including nearly $1 billion for equipment and aircraft. The government reportedly hopes that the political settlement with HIG signed in September 2016 (more below) will prompt the Taliban to agree to a political settlement. There have been no recent indications that the Taliban leadership is contemplating new talks with the Afghan government. The group is not designated as a "Foreign Terrorist Organization" (FTO). The program depended on donations: Britain, Japan, and several other countries, including the United States, have donated about $200 million, of which the U.S. contribution has been about half the total (CERP funds). The Trump Administration has specifically linked U.S. policy in Afghanistan to broader regional dynamics, particularly as they relate to South Asia, and in particular signaled that the Administration plans to assertively pressure Pakistan to deny safe haven to Afghan militants. Afghanistan has sought to increase its integration with neighboring states through participation in other international fora, including
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which Afghanistan joined in November 2005; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a security coordination body that includes Russia, China, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, to which Afghanistan was granted full observer status in June 2012; the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA), which was launched in 2005, last met in November 2016 in Istanbul, and is to be hosted by Turkmenistan in Ashkabad in 2017; a "Regional Working Group" initiative, co-chaired by Turkey and UNAMA, which organized the November 2011 Istanbul meeting mentioned above; a "Kabul Silk Road" initiative, led by UNAMA, to promote regional cooperation on Afghanistan; and the still-expanding 50-nation "International Contact Group," through which U.S. officials have sought to enlist regional and greater international support for Afghanistan. Iran helped broker Afghanistan's first post-Taliban government, in cooperation with the United States, at the December 2001 "Bonn Conference." From 2002 to 2014, China provided about $255 million in economic aid to Afghanistan. The cited figures do not include costs for U.S. combat operations. The FY2017 Consolidated Appropriation ( P.L. 111-73 ) did not authorize ROZs.
The United States, partner countries, and the Afghan government are attempting to reverse recent gains made by the resilient Taliban-led insurgency since the December 2014 transition to a smaller international mission consisting primarily of training and advising the Afghanistan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF). The Afghan government has come under increasing domestic criticism not only for failing to prevent insurgent gains but also for its internal divisions that have spurred the establishment of new political opposition coalitions. In September 2014, the United States brokered a compromise to address a dispute over the 2014 presidential election, but a September 2016 deadline was not met for enacting election reforms and deciding whether to elevate the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) position to a prime ministership. The Afghan government has made some measurable progress in reducing corruption and implementing its budgetary and other commitments. It has adopted measures that would enable it to proceed with new parliamentary elections, but no election date has been set.
The number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, which peaked at about 100,000 in 2011, is reportedly about 15,000, of which most are assigned to the NATO-led "Resolute Support Mission" (RSM) that trains, assists, and advises the ANDSF. About 2,000 of the U.S. contingent are involved in combat against Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, including the Afghanistan branch of the Islamic State organization (ISIL-Khorasan), under "Operation Freedom's Sentinel" (OFS). In August 2017, after several months of deliberation, President Trump announced a new strategy that includes several thousand additional U.S. forces to help Afghan forces break a "stalemate" in combat against insurgent groups, as well as expanded authorities to strike Taliban targets. The strategy also appears to signal a U.S. intent to more assertively pressure Pakistan to deny safe haven to Afghan militants.
U.S. officials assert that insurgents control or contest about 40% of Afghan territory, but still are not positioned to overturn the government. In May 2016, the vulnerabilities of the Taliban were exposed when the United States tracked and killed with an unmanned aerial vehicle strike the head of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour. However, the successor Taliban leadership has continued to produce battlefield gains and rejects new settlement talks with the government. One small insurgent group reached a settlement with the government in late September 2016, but the agreement has not, to date, broadened to other groups. Afghanistan's minorities and women's groups assert concerns that a settlement with the Taliban might erode post-2001 human rights gains. U.S. forces have helped Afghan units kill several successive leaders of the Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan, but without defeating the group outright.
A component of U.S. policy to help establish a self-sustaining Afghanistan is to encourage economic development and integration into regional trading patterns. However, Afghanistan will remain dependent on foreign aid for many years. Through the end of FY2016, the United States provided about $111 billion to Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban, of which about 60% has been to equip and train the ANDSF. These figures do not include funds for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. The FY2017 appropriation for the ANDSF is $4.2 billion; allocations to Afghanistan from economic assistance account appropriations have not yet been finalized. For FY2018, the Trump Administration has requested $4.9 billion for the ANDSF, as well as funding for a number of other priorities, including $650 million in economic support.