By May 1, 2003, all public stations are to be  broadcasting a DTV signal as well. In particular, we discuss (1) the number of transitioning  stations that reported they have had problems or expect problems that  might keep them from meeting the deadline; (2) the lengths of extensions  to the deadline that stations reported would be realistic for their situations;  and (3) the dates when stations reported they would have built DTV  stations if the transition were based on market forces rather than  government mandate. Almost Three-Quarters of Transitioning Stations Reported They May Not Meet the May 2002 Deadline

Seventy-four percent of transitioning stations told us that they had  problems or expected problems that might keep them from meeting the  May 1, 2002, deadline for having a digital signal on the air. Few Transitioning Stations Would Broadcast Digitally This Year Without a Government Mandate

We asked broadcasters to estimate when they would likely have begun  broadcasting a digital signal—assuming they had been given the spectrum  but were not under any government deadline to transition to digital—on  the basis of market forces such as competition, technology, and viewer  demand. Because of the 85  percent rule (i.e., the requirement that 85 percent of households in a  market be able to receive a digital signal before the analog signals are  discontinued), much of the spectrum is likely to remain encumbered by  analog broadcast stations until consumers adopt the necessary digital  technologies. To  develop our survey questions, we interviewed officials at the Federal  Communications Commission (FCC) as well as officials of organizations  representing industries affected by the transition to DTV. Thirty-eight percent of public stations said they  would need an extension of 2 years or more, compared with 54 percent of  commercial stations that said this.
What GAO Found

U. S. broadcast television stations are now switching from analog to digital television (DTV). The transition to digital technologies was sought by many broadcasters and was mandated by Congress and the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). FCC established 2006 as the target date for ending analog transmissions---a deadline later codified by Congress. At least 24 percent of all commercial television stations are now broadcasting a digital signal. However, these stations report little interest in receiving DTV. Transitioning stations reported that funding was one of the most prevalent problems. Seventy-four percent of transitioning stations indicated that the problems they are facing are so significant that they may not be able to begin broadcasting a DTV signal by May 2002, as required. Sixty-eight percent of transitioning stations said that a realistic extension for them would be one year or more. Thirty-one percent of the transitioning stations that said they might miss their May 2002 deadline reported that, if the transition were driven by market forces such as competition, technology, and consumer demand, they likely would not be on the air with a digital signal until after 2010. Another four percent of these stations reported that without a government mandate, they likely would never transition to digital.