	Background

With a cost of about $12.3 billion, the 2010 Census was the most  expensive population count in U.S. history, costing about 31 percent more  than the $9.4 billion 2000 Census (in constant 2020 dollars). 2016 Census Test Highlighted NRFU Challenges

NRFU generally proceeded according to the Bureau’s operational plans. However, our observations and the Bureau’s preliminary data at both test  sites found that (1) there were a large number of non-interviews, and (2)  enumerators had difficulty implementing new census-taking procedures. According to the Bureau, non-interviews  are cases where either no data or insufficient data were collected, in part  because the cases reached the maximum number of six attempted visits  without success or were not completed due to, for example, language  barriers or dangerous situations. According to preliminary 2016 Census Test data, there were 19,721  NRFU cases coded as non-interviews in Harris County, Texas and  14,026 in Los Angeles County, California, or about 30 and 20 percent of  the test workload respectively. For the 2010 and earlier decennials,  enumerators collected information during NRFU using pencil and paper. Enumerators Faced Challenges Implementing New Procedures

According to the Bureau, its plans to automate the assignment of NRFU  cases have the potential to deliver significant efficiency gains. At the  same time, refinements to certain enumeration procedures and better  communication could produce additional efficiencies by enabling the  Bureau to be more responsive to situations enumerators encounter in the  course of their follow-up work. Enumerators were unable to access recently closed incomplete  cases. In response to problems observed during the Bureau’s 2014 and 2015  Census tests and complaints from property managers about multiple  uncoordinated visits by enumerators, the Bureau’s 2016 Census Test  introduced specific procedures to conduct initial visits to property  managers in large multi-unit apartment buildings. The Bureau Has Fundamentally Re- engineered Address Canvassing for 2020

The Bureau has reengineered its approach to building its master address  list for 2020. The Bureau estimates that the two phases of in-office canvassing will  result in roughly 25 percent of housing units requiring in-field canvassing,  instead of canvassing nearly all housing units in the field as done  previously. During this phase, clerks use aerial imagery,  street imagery, and data from the U.S. Postal Service, as well as from  state, local, and tribal partners when reviewing blocks. The Bureau  plans to rely on the in-office part of address canvassing to validate a large  part of the addresses added to the list during that program where data are  available to permit it. The Bureau is testing its re-engineered address canvassing operation in  two sites through December 2016—in Buncombe County, North Carolina,  and St. Louis, Missouri. Although the innovations the Bureau is planning with its reengineered  address canvassing have the potential to reduce costs, they entail some  risks that could affect the cost or quality of the address canvassing  operation. According to the Bureau, these risks include:
Locating Hidden Housing Units. Monitoring Change in the Housing Stock. Obtaining Quality Data. Lessons Learned from the 2010 Census Can Be Applied to Preparations for 2020

The Bureau goes to great lengths each decade to improve specific  census-taking activities. While preparations for 2020 are still underway, and with testing  still occurring, the Bureau’s experience in planning for 2010 can enhance  its readiness for 2020. For example, as the Bureau continues its planning  efforts for 2020, our prior work indicates that it will be essential for it to  address the following three lessons learned:
Ensure key census-taking activities are fully tested
Develop and manage on the basis of reliable cost estimates
Sustain workforce planning  Ensure key census-taking activities are fully tested. Recently, we reported in our review of the Bureau’s October 2015 life- cycle cost estimate that in order for the Bureau to improve its ability to  control the cost of the 2020 Census, it will be critical for it to have better  control over its cost estimation process. Sustain attention to workforce planning. Going forward, once the Bureau has the test results, past experience has  also shown the importance of refining operations as needed based on the  results of the tests, incorporating lessons learned from 2010 as  appropriate, and making needed changes to its design in time to be  included in the Bureau’s End-to-End Test scheduled for 2018.
Why GAO Did This Study

With a life-cycle cost of about $12.3 billion, the 2010 Census was the most expensive U.S. census in history. To help control costs and maintain accuracy, the 2020 Census design includes new procedures and technology that have not been used extensively in earlier decennials, if at all. While these innovations show promise for a more cost-effective head count, they also introduce risks. As a result, it is important to thoroughly test the operations planned for 2020.This testimony focuses on (1) the preliminary results to date of the Bureau's 2016 Census Test in Los Angeles County, California, and Harris County, Texas; (2) the Bureau's plans for the upcoming test of address canvassing procedures in Buncombe County, North Carolina, and St. Louis, Missouri; and (3) the lessons learned from the 2010 Census that can be applied to preparations for 2020.
This testimony is based on GAO's ongoing reviews of the 2016 Census Test and Address Canvassing Test. For these studies, GAO reviewed Bureau documents and preliminary data, interviewed Bureau officials, and made site visits to observe census operations. This testimony is also based on prior GAO work on lessons learned from the 2010 Census.

What GAO Found

GAO preliminarily found that during the 2016 Census Test, nonresponse follow-up (NRFU), where enumerators visit households that did not respond to the census, generally proceeded according to the Census Bureau's (Bureau) operational plans. However, data at both test sites indicate that the Bureau experienced a large number of non-interviews. The Bureau considers non-interviews to be cases where either no data or insufficient data are collected. Bureau officials are not certain why there were so many non-interviews for the test and are researching potential causes. In addition, the Bureau's plan to automate the assignment of NRFU cases to enumerators has the potential to deliver significant efficiency gains as compared to paper-based operations conducted in previous decennial censuses, according to the Bureau. GAO preliminarily found that improvements to certain enumeration procedures and better training could produce additional efficiencies by enabling the Bureau to be more responsive to situations enumerators encounter on the ground. These improvements include providing more flexible access to recently closed, incomplete cases; enumerator interview training with multi-unit property managers; and operational procedures to make use of local data on the best time to attempt interviews.
The Bureau has reengineered its approach to building its master address list for 2020 in part by introducing a two-phase "in-office" process that systematically reviews small geographic areas nationwide. The goal is to limit the more expensive and traditional door-to-door canvassing to those areas most in need of updating, such as areas with recent housing growth. The in-office phases rely on aerial imagery, street imagery, geographic information systems and address file data from state, local, and tribal partners. The Bureau estimates that the new process will result in about 25 percent of housing units requiring field canvassing compared to the traditional process where all housing units were canvassed. The Bureau has identified a series of risks that could affect the cost or quality of the address canvassing operation, including locating hidden housing units such as converted garages, monitoring change in housing stock, and obtaining quality data. The Bureau is testing its reengineered address canvassing operation in two sites through December 2016--in Buncombe County, North Carolina, and St. Louis.
The Bureau's experience in planning for the 2010 decennial can enhance its readiness for 2020. Going forward, GAO's prior work indicates it will be important for the Bureau to address several key lessons learned, including: (1) ensuring key census-taking activities are fully tested, (2) developing and managing on the basis of reliable cost estimates, and (3) sustaining workforce planning efforts to ensure it has the optimal mix of skills to cost-effectively conduct the enumeration.

What GAO Recommends

GAO has made several recommendations to the Census Bureau in prior reports on cost estimation and workforce planning. The Bureau has implemented the workforce planning recommendations, and agreed with and plans to implement the cost estimation recommendations.