NCAP Results and Real-World Fatality Rates

Since NCAP crash tests are designed to simulate full-frontal collisions, we restricted our analysis to those types of crashes and found the results of NCAP crash tests are generally reflected in real-world fatality rates. New Car Assessment Program

A second crash test program we studied is the New Car Assessment Program conducted by NHTSA’s Office of Market Incentives. = 1/2 mv). If a determination of noncompliance is made, the model being tested may not be sold in the United States. We found that a statistically significant first-order correlation exists (r = .72) between the two sets of injury risk probabilities. Relationships Between NCAP and NASS Data

Data from the National Accident Sampling System for 1988 through 1991 were combined to determine whether the results of New Car Assessment Program tests are good predictors of serious injuries and fatalities in real-world automobile crashes. However, the relationship appears to be the result of the high fatality rates associated with the poorest performers in NCAP. 3. 4. 5. There is no contradiction between these statements. Safety Effectiveness Evaluation of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Rule-Making Process.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO reviewed the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) crash test programs, focusing on whether they provide valid and reliable indicators of occupant safety in real world crashes.

What GAO Found

GAO found that: (1) the probability of sustaining a serious injury has declined since the inception of NHTSA test programs; (2) cars marketed in the United States have become more crashworthy; (3) the consistency of New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) test results is questionable and its unreliable data may lead to misinformed purchasing decisions; (4) NCAP ability to predict a vehicle occupant's protection in real world crashes is limited, since NCAP results can only be applied to frontal collisions; and (5) there is a statistically significant relationship between fatality rates and NCAP-predicted injuries, however, these high fatality rates are associated with the poorest NCAP performers.