	Introduction

Congress faces decisions about prioritizing lock construction projects on the inland waterway system ( Figure 1 ). As both houses debate differing versions of water resources and development bills ( S. 2800 , H.R. 8 ) and the FY2019 Energy and Water Development Appropriations bill ( S. 2975 , H.R. 5895 ), the decision about which of these projects could be undertaken first will likely be among the most controversial issues. In recent years, a single project, the Olmsted Lock and Dam project on the Ohio River, has absorbed much of the available funding. This system is designed to allow for barge transportation, which is particularly useful for transporting heavy raw materials (e.g., grain, coal, petroleum, construction aggregates). As individual lock construction projects can take many years, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), which oversees the inland waterways and supervises lock construction, requires that the costs and benefits be reevaluated periodically. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) will not request funding for a project unless the measured economic benefit is at least 2.5 times the expected cost. The 21 proposed projects are clustered in three regions, each facing different economic conditions that are affecting barge traffic
in the agricultural heartland, record corn and soybean harvests have reversed the long-term downward trend of cargo volumes on the Upper Mississippi River (seven locks); in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, the closure of coal-fired generating plants has reduced the demand for moving coal by barge to power plants by nearly half (eight locks); along the Texas and Louisiana intracoastal waterway, tank barge traffic is in a state of flux as the petrochemical industry makes longer-term investments related to the Texas shale oil boom (six locks). Additional capacity is a motivation underlying many lock projects. However, on these river segments, tows may consist of only four or six barges. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects U.S. corn exports, which were essentially flat between 1990 and 2010, will increase slightly through 2027. These are just some of the variables that could influence future traffic through these locks. The decline of coal traffic can affect other commodities, as it could mean more empty backhaul movements of barges on the waterway, reducing overall efficiency. Of the four operating coal-fired electric power plants located on the river, three closed between 2013 and 2017. The cost estimate is $1.4 billion. 114-322 , §1401) at a cost of $17.4 million. Another factor that would seem to reduce the demand for domestic barge transport of oil along this waterway is the lifting of the crude oil export ban in 2015.
Congress faces decisions about prioritizing new lock construction projects on the inland waterway system. As both houses debate differing versions of water resources and development bills (S. 2800, H.R. 8) and the FY2019 Energy and Water Development Appropriations bill (S. 2975, H.R. 5895), the decision about which of these projects could be undertaken first will likely be among the most controversial issues.
The inland waterway system supports barge transportation of heavy raw materials such as grain, coal, petroleum, and construction aggregates. The new locks are needed, according to the Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and barge shippers, where existing locks are in poor condition, requiring frequent closures for repairs, and/or because a lock's size causes delays for barge tows. The total estimated cost for the 21 planned lock projects is several billion dollars (many of the individual projects have a cost estimate of between $300 million and $800 million). However, available funding for these projects is about $200 million per year. This is because of limited appropriations and cost-sharing capabilities. Under current cost-share arrangements, the barge industry pays half the cost of construction projects. It does this by paying a $0.29 per gallon fuel tax, which annually generates around $100 million.
Significant changes in traffic levels through particular locks may affect the benefits that were estimated as expansion projects were advanced. The calculation of benefits is critical to advancing a project: the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) will not request funding for a project unless the estimated economic benefit is at least 2.5 times the expected cost. The lock projects are clustered in three regions, each facing different economic conditions that are affecting barge traffic
in the agricultural heartland, record corn and soybean harvests have reversed the long-term downward trend of cargo volumes on the Upper Mississippi River; in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, the domestic natural gas boom has reduced the demand for coal by barge to power plants by nearly half; along the Texas and Louisiana intracoastal waterway, tank barge traffic is still in a state of flux as the petrochemical industry makes longer-term investments related to the Texas shale oil boom.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expecting corn and soybean exports to increase slightly over the next decade, but this projection could be affected by possible Chinese tariff increases on U.S. agricultural goods, including soybeans. The closing of additional coal-fired electric power plants along the Ohio, Monongahela, and Tennessee Rivers would reduce waterway use, as the power plants generate 75% or more of the barge traffic through many of the locks on these rivers. The loss of coal traffic is significant for other commodities as well, as it could lead to more empty repositioning of barges, reducing economies of density for barge transport on the rivers. New pipeline construction and the lifting of the crude oil export ban at the end of 2015 are two factors that could influence barge demand over the long-term on the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway.