The Navy also plans to field a prototype system—the User Operational Evaluation System (UOES)—beginning in September 1999. Technical problems that occurred in the two flight tests prior to the engineering and manufacturing development phase caused about a 6-month delay. The Area program acquisition plan has an optimistic schedule for conducting operational tests, which could result in the system remaining in a low-rate initial production phase longer than currently planned if the test program experiences serious problems. Navy Plans to Begin Low-Rate Initial Production Before Conducting Realistic Testing

The Navy plans to begin low-rate initial production of Area program missiles in June 2000 before conducting any operational tests of the system. According to Navy officials, the program needs to begin low-rate production in June 2000—5 months before system level developmental and operational tests are scheduled to begin—because of the urgent need for the system and to maintain an efficient flow in Standard missile production. Our review indicated that the following two factors raise some question about the criticality that the Navy attributes to initiating low-rate initial production. Even without low-rate production of the Area program’s Block IVA missile, Standard missile production will continue. Figure 3 shows planned production of the various configurations of the Standard missile. Scope and Methodology

To determine whether the Navy Area Theater Ballistic Missile Defense program has met its milestones to date and its remaining schedule appears realistic, we interviewed agency officials and analyzed pertinent program cost, schedule, and requirements documentation. To determine whether the tests being conducted or planned will be adequate to demonstrate the system’s capabilities before production begins, we interviewed agency officials and analyzed pertinent test plans and schedules.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO reviewed the Navy Area Theater Ballistic Missile Defense program to determine whether the: (1) program has met its milestones to date and its remaining schedule appears realistic; and (2) tests being conducted or planned will be adequate to demonstrate the system's capabilities before production begins.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) the Area program has experienced schedule slips totalling about 14 months due to several reasons, including technical problems in the two flight tests conducted prior to the engineering and manufacturing development phase; (2) further schedule slips are possible because of the acquisition plan's highly optimistic schedule for conducting operational tests; (3) slippages in completing these tests could result in the system remaining in a low-rate production phase longer than planned; (4) the Navy plans to begin production of Area program missiles before conducting any operational tests of the systems; (5) according to the Navy, it needs to begin low-rate initial production of the missiles in June 2000--5 months before system level developmental and operational tests are scheduled to begin--because of the urgent need for the system and to maintain an efficient flow in missile production; and (6) in GAO's opinion, two factors raise some questions about the Navy's rationale for the criticality of initiating low-rate initial production, namely: (a) a prototype system capability consisting of two cruisers equipped with User Operational Evaluation System missiles will be in service at that time; and (b) an earlier version of the Standard missile will still be in production, diminishing the need for low-rate production of the Block IVA missile to avoid a production gap.