	Redesign Implications for Decennial Census Operations

The Decennial Census is at a critical stage in the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, in  which the Bureau has its last opportunity to test its plans for 2010 under  census-like conditions. The largest field operation of the dress rehearsal was to  have begun this month. The redesign approach selected by the Secretary will require that the  Bureau quickly develop and test a paper-based nonresponse follow-up  operation. Dropping the use of the HHCs for nonresponse follow-up and  reverting to paper for that operation this late in the decade also precludes  nonresponse follow-up from being fully tested in the dress rehearsal. Field staff experienced  difficulties using the technology during the address canvassing dress  rehearsal. The Bureau has recently made  efforts to further define requirements for the FDCA program, and it has  estimated that the revised requirements will result in significant cost  increases. On January 16, 2008, the Bureau provided the FDCA contractor  with a list of over 400 requirements for the FDCA program to reconcile. Given the redesigning effort, implementing our recommendations  associated with managing the IT acquisitions is as critical as ever. Specifically, the Bureau needs to strengthen its acquisition management  capabilities, including finalizing FDCA requirements. Further, it also needs  to strengthen its risk management activities, including developing  adequate risk mitigation plans for significant risks and improving its  executive-level governance of these acquisitions. The Bureau also needs to  plan and conduct key tests, including end-to-end testing, to help ensure  that decennial systems perform as expected. Redesign Implications for Decennial Census Life Cycle Costs

Even without considering the recent expected cost increases announced  by the Bureau to accommodate the redesign of the FDCA program, the  Bureau’s cost projections for the 2010 Census revealed an escalating trend  from the 1970 Census. The Bureau estimated that the 2000 Census would  cost around $5 billion. We have repeatedly reported that the Bureau would be challenged to  control the cost of the 2010 Census. To manage the 2010 Census and  contain costs, we recommended that the Bureau develop a  comprehensive, integrated project plan for the 2010 Census that should  include the itemized estimated costs of each component, including a  sensitivity analysis and an explanation of significant changes in the  assumptions on which these costs were based. It included inputs and outputs and described linkages among operations  and systems. As the Bureau updates its  estimate of the life cycle cost annually and as part of the redesigning  effort, it will be important that it reflect changing assumptions for  productivity and hours worked. Further, it is essential that the Bureau implement our recommendations  related to information technology. The Bureau must solidify the FDCA  program requirements, strengthen risk management activities, and plan  and conduct critical testing of the Decennial Census systems. The challenges we highlighted today call for  effective risk mitigation by the U.S. Census Bureau, and careful monitoring  and oversight by the Department of Commerce, the Office of Management  and Budget, the Congress, GAO, and other key stakeholders.
Why GAO Did This Study

In 2007, the U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimated the 2010 Census would cost $11.5 billion, including $3 billion on automation and technology. At a March hearing, the Department of Commerce (Commerce) stated that the Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA) program was likely to incur significant cost overruns and announced a redesign effort. At that time, GAO designated the 2010 Decennial Census as high risk, citing long-standing concerns in managing information technology (IT) investments and uncertain costs and operations. This testimony is based on past work and work nearing completion, including GAO's observation of the address canvassing dress rehearsal. For IT acquisitions, GAO analyzed system documentation, including deliverables, cost estimates, other acquisitions-related documents, and interviewed Bureau officials and contractors. This testimony describes the implications of redesign for (1) dress rehearsal and decennial operations, (2) IT acquisitions management, and (3) Decennial Census costs.

What GAO Found

The Decennial Census is at a critical stage in the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, in which the Bureau has its last opportunity to test its plans for 2010 under census-like conditions. On April 3, 2008, Commerce announced significant changes to the FDCA program. It also announced that it expected the cost of the decennial to be up to $3 billion greater than previously estimated. The redesign will have fundamental impacts on the dress rehearsal as well as 2010 Census operations. Changes this late in the decade introduce additional risks, making more important the steps the Bureau can take to manage those risks. The content and timing of dress rehearsal operations must be altered to accommodate the Bureau's design. For example, Commerce has selected an option that calls for the Bureau to drop the use of handheld computers (HHCs) during the nonresponse follow-up operation, and the Bureau may now be unable to fully rehearse a paper-based operation. Additionally, reverting to a paper-based nonresponse follow-up operation presents the Bureau with a wide range of additional challenges, such as arranging for the printing of enumerator forms and testing the systems that will read the data from these forms once completed by enumerators. Given the redesign effort, implementing GAO's recommendations associated with managing the IT acquisitions is as critical as ever. Specifically, the Bureau needs to strengthen its acquisition management capabilities, including finalizing FDCA requirements. Further, it also needs to strengthen its risk management activities, including developing risk mitigation plans for significant risks and improving its executive-level governance of these acquisitions. The Bureau also needs to plan and conduct key tests, including end-to-end testing, to help ensure that decennial systems perform as expected. According to the Bureau, the redesign and related revision of the FDCA program is expected to result in significant increases to the life cycle cost estimate for the 2010 Census. Even without considering the recent expected cost increases announced by the Bureau to accompany the redesign of the FDCA program, the Bureau's cost projections for the 2010 Census revealed an escalating trend from previous censuses. Previously, GAO recommended that the Bureau develop an integrated and comprehensive plan to manage operations. Specifically, to understand and manage the assumptions that drive the cost of the decennial census, GAO recommended, among other actions, that the Bureau annually update the cost of the 2010 Census and conduct sensitivity analysis on the $11.5 billion estimate. However, while the Bureau understands the utility of sensitivity analysis, it has not conducted such an analysis.