This original budget request  reflected the bureau’s plan to gather information based in part on using  statistical estimation for nonresponding households and to adjust for  undercounting and other coverage errors. Key Assumption—Increased Workload

An assumed increase in workload substantially increased costs in the fiscal  year 2000 amended budget request for enumerator and support salaries,  benefits, travel, data capture requirements, infrastructure, and supplies. Because of the increased workload and reduced productivity, the bureau  increased the total number of temporary field positions from the 780,000  estimated in the original budget to 1,350,000. Components of the $1.7 Billion Increase Related and Unrelated to the Sampling Issue

According to the bureau, about $1.6 billion of the $1.7 billion requested  increase is related to the inability to use statistical sampling, and the  remaining $104 million is not related. Unrelated items include costs not  included in the original budget request and revisions of prior estimates. Process Used to Develop the Fiscal Year 2000 Amended Budget Request

To develop the amended fiscal year 2000 budget request, the bureau used a  model that consisted of an extensive set of interrelated software  spreadsheets. Both the original and amended budget requests were  developed with this cost model, with each estimate being developed  independently using different versions of the cost model. As shown in table 1, the bureau  derived the $1.7 billion requested increase by calculating the net difference  between the original budget request of $2.8 billion and the amended budget  request of $4.5 billion. Because the reported productivity rate from the 1990 census was 1.56 and  the assumption used in the original budget was 1.28, we conclude that the  1.03 assumption used in the amended budget request, which covers not  only the additional 16 million housing units now planned to be enumerated  but also the 30 million housing units to be enumerated in the original  budget, is very conservative—or a “worst case scenario.” Should the  bureau’s productivity assumption prove to be more or less than 1.03  housing units per hour, the bureau’s fiscal year 2000 amended budget  request could differ substantially from the bureau’s needs. Objectives

Provide an overall analysis of the key changes in assumptions resulting in the $1.7 billion requested increase. Provide details on the components of the $1.7 billion requested increase and which changes, according to the bureau, are related and which are not related to the inability to use statistical sampling. The net $1.7 billion requested increase in the bureau’s original fiscal year 2000 budget request resulted primarily from changes in assumptions relating to reduced employee productivity, and increased advertising. Of the 16 million additional visits
12 million are for following up on nonresponding households, and
4 million are for housing units the bureau plans to visit because the Postal Service believes they are vacant or nonexistent. According to the bureau, this advertising is intended to increase public awareness of the census and hopefully increase the mail response rate. Most of this increase relates to visiting households that did not mail back a census questionnaire.
Why GAO Did This Study

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO provided information on the Bureau of the Census' fiscal year (FY) 2000 budget, focusing on: (1) an overall analysis of the key changes in assumptions resulting in the $1.7 billion request increase; (2) details on the components of this increase and which changes, according to the bureau, are related and which are not related to the inability to use statistical sampling; and (3) the process the bureau used for developing the increase in the original FY 2000 budget request and the amended budget request.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) GAO found that the net $1.7 billion requested increase in the original FY 2000 budget request of $2.8 billion resulted primarily from changes in assumptions relating to a substantial increase in workload, reduced employee productivity, and increased advertising; (2) under the nonsampling design, census costs will increase because the bureau expects to follow up on more nonresponding households than for a sampling-based census and plans to use additional programs to improve coverage because it cannot rely on statistical methods to adjust for undercounting and other coverage errors; (3) the bureau assumes an increased workload because the housing units that the bureau expects to visit have increased from an estimated 30 million to 46 million; (4) the 16 million increase includes visiting 12 million additional nonresponding housing units and 4 million additional housing units that the Postal Service says are vacant or nonexistent; (5) this increased workload, which increased costs for most bureau program activities, relates primarily to additional salaries, benefits, travel, data processing, infrastructure, and supplies; (6) another key factor substantially increasing the FY 2000 budget request is that the bureau reduced the assumed productivity of its temporary enumerator employees; (7) because of the assumed increase in workload and reduction in productivity, the total number of temporary field positions increased from 780,000 in the original budget to 1,350,000 in the amended budget request; (8) the bureau also included nearly $72 million of advertising in the amended budget request to increase public awareness and hopefully increase response rates for mailed questionnaires; (9) according to the bureau, about $1.6 billion of this increase is related and $100 million is not related to the inability to use statistical sampling; (10) the items unrelated to the sampling issue include costs not included in the original budget and revisions of prior estimates; (11) the bureau developed its $4.5 billion amended budget request for FY 2000 using a cost model consisting of a series of interrelated software spreadsheets; (12) the original and amended budget requests were developed using this cost model, with each estimate being developed independently using different versions of the cost model; and (13) the bureau derived the $1.7 billion requested increase by calculating the net difference between the original budget request of $2.8 billion and the amended budget request of $4.5 billion.