State Anticipates Significant Increases in Mission Mexico’s Nonimmigrant Visa and Passport Workload during Fiscal Years 2007 to 2011

Mission Mexico will experience substantial growth in its NIV workload  due to the need to renew millions of Border Crossing Cards, issued 10  years prior, that began expiring in fiscal year 2008. Though various factors  may reduce the accuracy of State’s NIV demand forecasts, these forecasts  nonetheless provide a reasonable basis for planning for the anticipated  surge in NIV demand. Mission Mexico Is Forecast to Experience a Significant Increase in NIV Demand Due to Renewals of Millions of Expiring Border Crossing Cards

State anticipates a surge in NIV demand in Mexico as Border Crossing  Cards expire and millions of card holders are likely to apply for renewals  at U.S. consulates. Assuming a 75 percent  renewal rate among card holders, the forecasts show missionwide NIV  demand peaking at slightly less than 3 million applications in fiscal year  2011, which represents a 94 percent increase in demand from fiscal year  2007. Mission Mexico Will Experience an Increase in Passport Workload Due to WHTI Implementation, Although the Magnitude Is Difficult to Predict

In addition to the surge in NIV workload, Mission Mexico has begun to  experience a surge in its passport workload as a result of the  implementation of WHTI at air ports of entry in January 2007 and its  subsequent, planned implementation at land and sea ports in June 2009. According to State officials, the mission has already seen a significant  increase in its passport workload as U.S. citizens living in Mexico have  begun to apply for passports in response to the new documentary  requirements. Additionally, there is a great  deal of uncertainty regarding the number of U.S. citizens living in Mexico  and the number of these citizens who are potential passport applicants. According to State’s estimates, Mission Mexico’s WHTI  workload is projected to peak in fiscal year 2009 with the intended  implementation of WHTI at land ports of entry. State Is Adding Interviewing Windows and Temporary Adjudicators to Posts in Mexico to Keep Pace with Projected Workload Increases

In anticipation of the surge in demand for NIVs and U.S. passports in  Mexico, State is adding hardened interview windows to several high- demand posts. State has also developed plans to hire about 100  temporary adjudicating officers to add to its existing staff at the posts in  Mexico. Several posts in Mexico will rely heavily on  these additional staff to keep pace with expected demand for NIVs and  avoid excessive wait times for interviews of applicants. Recommendation for Executive Action

To strengthen internal controls and enhance State’s evaluation of the pilot  program to outsource part of the NIV application process to a private  contractor at off-site facilities, we recommend that the Secretary of State  include in the evaluation an assessment of the potential risks related to  fraud and security. Appendix I: Scope and Methodology

Our objectives were to review (1) the State Department’s (State) estimates  of the workload for consulates in Mexico through 2012 resulting from, in  particular, new travel requirements and the reissue of Border Crossing  Cards; and (2) State’s efforts to ensure that consulates in Mexico keep  pace with projected workload increases through 2012.
Why GAO Did This Study

In fiscal year 2007, the U.S. Mission in Mexico (Mission Mexico) processed 1.5 million of the 8 million nonimmigrant visas (NIV) that the Department of State (State) handled worldwide. This workload is expected to increase dramatically in the coming years as millions of NIV Border Crossing Cards issued in Mexico during fiscal years 1998 to 2002 expire and need to be renewed. Consulates will also face increased workloads due to implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative (WHTI), which will require U.S. citizens to carry passports, or other approved documentation, when traveling between the United States and Mexico, including by land. GAO was asked to review State's (1) estimates of the workload for consulates in Mexico through 2012 and (2) efforts to help ensure consulates keep pace with expected workload increases. GAO analyzed State's workload forecasts and forecast methodology, interviewed State officials, and visited five posts in Mexico.

What GAO Found

According to State forecasts, Mission Mexico's NIV demand will likely peak at slightly less than 3 million applications in fiscal year 2011, almost twice the number in fiscal year 2007. Though State acknowledges there are uncertainties regarding the number of Border Crossing Card holders who will renew their cards and the number of first-time NIV applicants, the forecasts provide a reasonable basis for planning for the anticipated surge in NIV demand. In addition to its increase in NIV workload, Mission Mexico will be facing increases in its passport workload due to the implementation of WHTI. The magnitude of the increase in passport workload is more difficult to forecast than for NIVs because there is a great deal of uncertainty as to how many U.S. citizens live in Mexico and the number of these citizens likely to apply for a passport. Mission Mexico has already seen a significant increase in its passport workload as U.S. citizens living in Mexico have begun to apply for passports in response to the new documentary requirements. State forecasts that passport workload will peak in fiscal year 2009 with WHTI's anticipated implementation at land ports of entry. State is taking steps to help ensure U.S. consulates in Mexico keep pace with anticipated demand for NIVs and U.S. passports, including adding interviewing windows to several high-demand posts and planning to hire about 100 temporary adjudicating officers. Consular officials at several posts generally agreed these efforts to expand resources should be adequate for Mission Mexico to keep pace with expected workload increases, and GAO's analysis indicates the mission will generally have enough interviewing windows during the surge. Several posts will rely on additional temporary adjudicators to keep pace with increased demand. State is confident it has an adequate pool of potential applicants. Mission Mexico may also gain additional capacity from a pilot program, under way at two posts, outsourcing a portion of the NIV application process to off-site facilities. State has said it intends to evaluate the pilot program but has not indicated if its evaluation plans include an assessment of risks related to fraud and security.