The trapped  energy warms the earth’s climate, much as glass in a greenhouse. In addition to the emissions intensity goal and domestic elements  intended to help achieve it, the President’s February 2002 climate initiative  includes (1) new and expanded international policies, such as increasing  funding for tropical forests, which sequester carbon dioxide, (2) enhanced  science and technology, such as developing and deploying advanced  energy and sequestration technologies, and (3) an improved registry of  reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. While U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly, the  Energy Information Administration reports that U.S. emissions intensity  has generally been falling steadily for 50 years. Administration’s Public Documents Provide a Context But Not a Specific Basis for the 18-percent Goal

The Administration explained that the Initiative’s general goal is to slow  the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but it did not explain the  basis for its specific goal of reducing emissions intensity 18 percent by  2012 or what a 4-percent reduction is specifically designed to accomplish. Reducing emissions growth by 4 percentage points more than is currently  expected would achieve the general goal, but—on the basis of our review  of the fact sheets and other documents--we found no specific basis for  establishing a 4-percentage-point change, as opposed to a 2- or 6- percentage-point change, for example, relative to the already anticipated  reductions. Because economic output will increase faster than emissions between  2002 and 2012, according to EIA’s projections, emissions intensity is  estimated to decline from 183 tons per million dollars of output in 2002 to  158 tons per million dollars in 2012 (a 14-percent decline) without the  Initiative, and to 150 tons per million dollars under the Initiative (an 18- percent decline). Administration’s Public Documents Estimated Contributions for Some, but Not All, of the Initiative’s Elements

The Administration identified 30 elements (26 in February 2002 and  another 4 later) that it expected would help reduce U.S. emissions by 2012  and, thus, contribute to meeting its 18-percent goal. These 30 elements  include regulations, research and development, tax incentives, and other  activities. The Administration  groups them into four broad categories, as described below. Providing incentives and programs for renewable energy and certain  industrial power systems. Three efforts relating to automotive technology  and two other elements are expected to improve fuel economy. Promoting domestic carbon sequestration. Challenging business to reduce emissions. We have concerns about some of the 19 emission reduction elements for  which the Administration did not provide savings estimates. In  five cases, an estimate is provided for a current or recent savings level, but  no information is provided about the expected additional savings to be  achieved by 2012. For example, the Administration states that aluminum  producers reduced their emissions by 1.8 million metric tons to meet a  goal in 2000, but it does not identify future savings, if any. In two cases, it is not clear how much of the claimed savings will occur by  the end of the Initiative in 2012. In one case, savings are counted for an activity that does not appear to be  directly attributable to the Initiative. Because this agreement  was signed before the Initiative was announced, it is not clear that the  estimated reductions should be considered as additions to the already  anticipated amount. Estimates for the remaining 3 of the 11 elements appear to be attributable  to the Initiative in that they represent reductions beyond previous or  current levels and are associated with expanded program activities. Administration’s Public Documents Do Not Discuss Plans for Monitoring Interim Progress

According to the February 2002 fact sheet, progress in meeting the 18- percent goal will be assessed in 2012, the final year of the Initiative. The fact sheets did not indicate whether the  Administration plans to check its progress before 2012.
Why GAO Did This Study

In 2002, the Administration announced its Global Climate Change Initiative. It included, among other things, a goal concerning U.S. carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, which are widely believed to affect the earth's climate. The Administration's general goal was to reduce the growth rate of emissions, but not total emissions, between 2002 and 2012. Its specific goal was to reduce emissions intensity 18 percent, 4 percentage points more than the 14 percent decline already expected. Emissions intensity measures the amount of greenhouse gases emitted per unit of economic output. In the United States, this ratio has generally decreased for 50 years or more. Under the Initiative, emissions would increase, but less than otherwise expected. GAO was asked to testify on whether the Administration's publicly available documents (1) explain the basis for the Initiative's general and specific goals, (2) identify elements to help reduce emissions and contribute to the 18 percent reduction goal, as well as their specific contributions, and (3) discuss plans to track progress in meeting the goal. This testimony is based on ongoing work, and GAO expects to issue a final report on this work later this year. Because of time constraints, GAO's testimony is based on its analysis of publicly available Administration documents.

What GAO Found

The Administration stated that the Initiative's general goal is to slow the growth of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but it did not provide a basis for its specific goal of reducing emissions intensity 18 percent by 2012. Any reduction in emissions above the 14-percent reduction already anticipated would contribute to this general goal. However, GAO did not find a specific basis or rationale for the Administration's decision to establish a 4-percentage-point reduction goal beyond the already expected reductions. The Administration identified 30 elements that it expected would reduce U.S. emissions and contribute to meeting its 18 percent reduction goal by 2012. The 30 elements include a range of policy tools (such as regulations, research and development, tax incentives, and other activities) that cover four broad areas: (1) improving renewable energy and certain industrial power systems, (2) improving fuel economy, (3) promoting domestic carbon sequestration (for example, the absorption of carbon dioxide by trees to offset emissions), and (4) challenging business to reduce emissions. GAO found that the Administration provided estimates of the reductions associated with 11 of the 30 elements, but not with the remaining 19 elements. Of these 11 estimates, GAO found that 3 estimates represented future emissions reductions related to activities that occurred after the Initiative was announced. However, the other 8 estimates represented past or current emissions reductions or related to activities that were already underway before the Initiative was announced. Specifically, in five cases, an estimate is provided for current or recent reductions, but no information is provided about the expected additional savings to be achieved by 2012, the end of the Initiative. In two cases, the elements are expected to yield savings over many years, but it is not clear what emissions reductions will be achieved by 2012. In one case, savings are counted for an activity that began prior to the announcement of the Initiative. It is, therefore, unclear to what extent the 30 elements will contribute to the goal of reducing emissions and, thus, lowering emissions intensity by 2012. The Administration plans to determine, in 2012, whether the 18-percent reduction goal was met. Unless the Administration conducts one or more interim assessments, it will not be in a position to determine, until a decade after announcing the Initiative, whether its efforts are having the intended effect or whether additional efforts may be warranted.