Agencies Have Begun Planning for Separate Acquisitions, but the Impact of This New Approach Is Not Fully Known and Key Transition Risks Exist

NOAA and DOD have begun planning to transition the NPOESS program  to separate acquisitions, but the agencies are at different stages in  planning and neither has finalized its plans. NOAA has developed  preliminary plans for a new program to fulfill the requirements of the  afternoon NPOESS orbit. Because neither agency has  completed its plans, the impact of the decision to disband the program on  expected costs, schedules, and promised capabilities has not yet been fully  determined. Moving forward, the agencies face key risks in  transitioning from NPOESS to two separate programs. These risks include  the loss of key staff and capabilities, added delays in negotiating contract  changes and establishing new program offices, the loss of support for the  other agency’s requirements, and insufficient oversight of new program  management. Until these risks are effectively mitigated, it is likely that the  satellite programs’ costs will continue to grow and launch dates will  continue to be delayed. NOAA has developed preliminary plans for its new satellite  acquisition program—called the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS). NPOESS Development Continues, but Demonstration Satellite Has Been Delayed and New Challenges Threaten Further Delays

While NOAA and DOD are establishing plans for separate acquisitions, the  development of key NPOESS components is continuing. In recent months,  the critical VIIRS sensor has been completed and integrated onto the NPP  spacecraft. In addition, the program continues to work on components of  the first and second NPOESS satellites, including sensors and ground  systems. However, the  expected launch date of the NPP satellite has been delayed by 9 months  due to technical issues in the development of a key sensor, and the  development of the VIIRS sensor for the first NPOESS satellite is  experiencing cost overruns. In addition, the program is slowing down and  may stop work on key components in order to address potential contract  liabilities and funding constraints. This would further delay the launches  of the NPP satellite and the first NOAA and DOD satellites under their new  programs. These  components may be transferred to NOAA and DOD to become part of their  respective follow-on programs. Because the NPP demonstration  satellite was not designed as an operational asset, it has several  limitations. These limitations include fewer ground-based data processing  systems, fewer security controls, and a shorter satellite lifespan than  current or planned operational satellites. These design limitations mean  that in some cases, NPP’s data will not be as timely and useful as current  polar satellites or as secure as planned satellites. In addition, there is a risk  of a gap in the nation’s climate and weather data should the NPP satellite  or its sensors fail before the next satellite is launched. Agency officials  acknowledge these limitations and are assessing options to make NPP  data more timely and secure. Recommendations for Executive Action

In order to ensure that the transition from NPOESS to its successor  programs is efficiently and effectively managed, we recommend that the  Secretaries of Defense and Commerce take the following four actions:    direct their respective NPOESS follow-on programs to expedite decisions  on the expected cost, schedule, and capabilities of their planned programs;    direct their respective NPOESS follow-on programs to develop plans to  address key transition risks, including the loss of skilled staff, delays in  contract negotiations and setting up new program offices, loss of support  for the other agency’s requirements, and oversight of new program  management;    direct the NPOESS program office to develop priorities for work  slowdown and stoppage to allow the activities that are most important to  maintaining launch schedules to continue; and    direct NOAA and DOD officials to develop time frames for making key  decisions on—or accepting the risks related to—the timeliness of NPP’s  data. In their comments, both NOAA and DOD agreed with our  recommendations and identified plans to implement them. GAO staff who made major contributions to this report are  listed in appendix V.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to (1) assess efforts to plan for separate satellite  acquisitions; (2) evaluate the status and risks of key program components  still under development; and (3) evaluate implications of using the  demonstration satellite’s data operationally. We also interviewed agency officials from the  Department of Defense (DOD), the National Aeronautics and Space  Administration (NASA), and NOAA, as well as members of the NPOESS  task force and the NPOESS program office.
Why GAO Did This Study

In the 8 years since a contract was awarded, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)--a tri-agency program managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--has experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and ineffective interagency management. The launch date for a demonstration satellite has been delayed by over 5 years and the cost estimate for the program has more than doubled--to about $15 billion. In February 2010, a Presidential task force decided to disband NPOESS and, instead, have the agencies undertake separate acquisitions. GAO was asked to (1) assess efforts to establish separate satellite programs; (2) evaluate the status and risks of the NPOESS components still under development; and (3) evaluate the implications of using the demonstration satellite's data operationally. To do so, GAO analyzed program management and cost data, attended program reviews, and interviewed agency officials.

What GAO Found

NOAA and DOD have begun planning to transition the NPOESS program to separate acquisitions, but neither has finalized its plans. NOAA has developed preliminary plans for its new program--called the Joint Polar Satellite Program--to meet the requirements of the afternoon NPOESS orbit. DOD expects to make decisions on the spacecraft and sensors by June and October 2010, respectively. Because neither agency has completed its plans, the impact of the decision to disband the program on expected costs, schedules, and promised capabilities has not been fully determined. Moving forward, the agencies face key risks in transitioning from NPOESS to their separate programs. These risks include the loss of key staff and capabilities, delays in negotiating contract changes and establishing new program offices, the loss of support for the other agency's requirements, and insufficient oversight of new program management. Until these risks are effectively mitigated, it is likely that the satellite programs' costs will continue to grow and launch dates will continue to be delayed, which could lead to gaps in the continuity of critical satellite data. While NOAA and DOD are establishing plans for their separate acquisitions, the development of key components of the NPOESS program is continuing. In recent months, a critical imaging sensor has been completed and integrated onto the spacecraft of a demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). In addition, the program continues to work on components of the first and second NPOESS satellites, which are to be transferred to NOAA and DOD to become part of their respective follow-on programs. However, the expected launch date of the NPP satellite has been delayed by 9 months due to technical issues in the development of a key sensor. Further, the program is slowing down and may need to stop work on key components because of potential contract liabilities and funding constraints, but has not developed a prioritized list on what to stop first. This may further delay NPP and the components of the first NOAA and DOD satellites under their new programs. Because the NPP demonstration satellite was designed as a risk-reduction mission, not as an operational asset, it has several limitations. These limitations include fewer ground-based data processing systems, fewer security controls, and a shorter satellite lifespan than exist for current or planned operational satellites. These design limitations mean that, in some cases, NPP's data will not be as timely, useful, and secure as other polar satellites and that there is a risk of a gap in the nation's climate and weather services should NPP fail before the next satellite is launched. Agency officials acknowledge these limitations and are assessing options to make NPP data more timely and secure.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is making recommendations to NOAA and DOD to address key risks in transitioning to their respective new programs. Both agencies agreed with GAO's recommendations and identified plans for addressing them. GAO is making recommendations to NOAA and DOD to address key risks in transitioning to their respective new programs. Both agencies agreed with GAO's recommendations and identified plans for addressing them.