Work abroad for foreign airlines, or join the U.S. military and be  trained as a pilot. Data Are Mixed Regarding the Extent of an Airline Pilot Shortage, but Regional Airlines Are Experiencing Difficulties Hiring Entry-Level Pilots

Historical labor market data from 2000 through 2012 provide mixed  evidence as to whether an airline pilot shortage exists. On the other hand, wage earnings and  employment were not consistent with the existence of a shortage, as data  for both indicators showed decreases over the period. As  airlines have started hiring to address growth demands and attrition, 11 of  the 12 regional airlines we interviewed reported difficulties filling entry- level first-officer vacancies. Mainline airlines, since they hire experienced  pilots largely from regional airlines, have not reported similar difficulties,  although mainline airline representatives expressed concerns that entry- level hiring problems could affect the ability of their regional partners to  provide service to some locations. The BLS  employment projections assume that growth in supply will be  adequate to meet the demand, and so the analysis is not designed to  forecast whether a labor shortage might develop in any given  occupation. While these projections suggest the need for between roughly 1,900 and  4,500 new pilots on an average annual basis over the next 10 years, we  cannot indicate with any level of certainty the actual number of new airline  pilots that will be needed or hired in the future. However, we cannot determine the  number of these pilots who may meet these qualifications, who would  seek employment with civilian airlines after exiting from the military  services, or who have the flight experience that airlines require. Representatives at most of the regional airlines also noted that some of  the difficulty in finding sufficient numbers of pilots with ATP certificates,  being experienced by some regional airlines, could be influenced by  current perceptions about the potential for career opportunities and  progression. However, representatives did express  concerns that their regional partners may be experiencing difficulties  finding qualified entry-level pilots. Industry and Government Are Taking Some Actions to Attract and Train Future Pilots

Economic literature identifies possible actions that employers in a market  may take to mitigate a labor shortage. However,  such actions have associated costs and can affect the industry in various  ways. For  example, two regional airlines that have had difficulty filling their new hire  classes have started offering new-hire first officers an upfront $5,000  signing bonus, and one of these airlines also offers up to $10,000 for  tuition reimbursement. Increase Availability and Flexibility of Financial Assistance to Aviation Students

Several airline and pilot school officials we interviewed stated that the  high cost of pilot training is deterring students from entering pilot school  and pursuing an airline pilot career. Some stakeholders suggested that revising  loan requirements could provide incentives to attract individuals to the  pilot profession. Stakeholders have made these  suggestions because the new pilot qualification rule changed the  traditional pathway to becoming an airline pilot, and airlines initial  experience under the new rule suggests that the flight hours new pilots  are earning to qualify for an ATP certificate may not be directly relevant to  an airline setting. To address such a situation, opportunities exist for the airline industry to  take action to attract more pilots. In this report, we described  (1) what the available data and forecasts reveal about the need for and  potential availability of airline pilots and (2) the types of industry and  government actions that are being taken, or might be taken, to attract and  retain airline pilots. To address the two objectives, we reviewed and synthesized a range of  published reports from GAO, the Department of Transportation (DOT),  and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) that included general  background information on a variety of related issues, such as the pilot  certification process; pilot training schools; typical career paths to become  an airline pilot; piloting experience and airline pilot compensation; federal- funding programs for pilot training; and the historical and current health of  the airline industry. We also reviewed relevant literature related to factors  that affect the supply of and demand for airline pilots, including attrition  and retention concerns, factors to consider in the future, and international  pilot supply and demand issues based on search results from databases,  such as ProQuest®, TRID, and Nexis®, as well as trade publications,  industry stakeholder groups, and the Internet. We analyzed data from the Department of Education (Education) on  annual completions by major in professional pilot programs; data from the  Department of Defense (DOD) on expectations for the number of new  pilots entering military service and separating from the military; and FAA’s  data on the number of individuals holding and obtaining pilot certificates  and instrument ratings by year, specifically:
Education: To describe national trends in completions in professional  pilot degree programs, we analyzed data from Education’s Integrated  Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). We also interviewed  representatives of 10 collegiate aviation and 2 non-collegiate vocational  pilot schools, which accounted for about half of the students who  graduated with professional pilot majors in 2012.
Why GAO Did This Study

Over 66,000 airline pilot jobs exist for larger mainline and smaller regional airlines that operate over 7,000 commercial aircraft. After a decade of turmoil that curtailed growth in the industry and resulted in fewer pilots employed at airlines since 2000, recent industry forecasts indicate that the global aviation industry is poised for growth. However, stakeholders have voiced concerns that imminent retirements, fewer pilots exiting the military, and new rules increasing the number of flight hours required to become a first officer for an airline, could result in a shortage of qualified airline pilots.
GAO was asked to examine pilot supply and demand issues. This report describes (1) what available data and forecasts reveal about the need for and potential availability of airline pilots and (2) what actions industry and government are taking or could take to attract and retain airline pilots. GAO collected and analyzed data from 2000 through 2012, forecasts from 2013 through 2022, and literature relevant to the labor market for airline pilots and reviewed documents and interviewed agency officials about programs that support training. GAO interviewed and collected data from associations representing airlines or their pilots, and pilot schools that accounted for about half of the students who graduated with professional pilot majors in 2012. GAO selected the airlines and schools based on factors such as size and location. GAO is not making recommendations in this report. The Department of Transportation and others provided technical clarifications on a draft of the report, which GAO incorporated.

What GAO Found

GAO found mixed evidence regarding the extent of a shortage of airline pilots, although regional airlines have reported difficulties finding sufficient numbers of qualified pilots over the past year. Specifically, looking at broad economic indicators, airline pilots have experienced a low unemployment rate—the most direct measure of a labor shortage; however, both employment and earnings have decreased since 2000, suggesting that demand for these occupations has not outstripped supply. Looking forward, industry forecasts and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment projections suggest the need for pilots to be between roughly 1,900 and 4,500 pilots per year, on average, over the next decade, which is consistent with airlines' reported expectations for hiring over this period. Yet studies GAO reviewed examining whether the future supply of pilots will be sufficient to meet this need had varying conclusions. Two studies point to the large number of qualified pilots that exists, but who may be working abroad, in the military, or in another occupation, as evidence that there is adequate supply. However, whether these pilots choose to seek employment with U.S. airlines depends on the extent to which pilot job opportunities arise, and on the wages and benefits airlines offer. Another study concludes that future supply will be insufficient, absent any actions taken, largely resulting from accelerating costs of pilot education and training. Such costs deter individuals from pursuing a pilot career. Pilot schools that GAO interviewed reported fewer students entering their programs resulting from concerns over the high costs of education and low entry-level pay at regional airlines. As airlines have recently started hiring, nearly all of the regional airlines that GAO interviewed reported difficulties finding sufficient numbers of qualified entry-level first officers. However, mainline airlines, because they hire from the ranks of experienced pilots, have not reported similar concerns, although some mainline airlines expressed concerns that entry-level hiring problems could affect their regional airline partners' ability to provide service to some locations.
Airlines are taking several actions to attract and retain qualified commercial airline pilots. For example, airlines that GAO interviewed have increased recruiting efforts, and developed partnerships with schools to provide incentives and clearer career paths for new pilots. Some regional airlines have offered new first officers signing bonuses or tuition reimbursement to attract more pilots. However, some airlines found these actions insufficient to attract more pilots, and some actions, such as raising wages, have associated costs that have implications for the industry. Airline representatives and pilot schools suggested FAA could do more to give credit for various kinds of flight experience in order to meet the higher flight-hour requirement, and could consider developing alternative pathways to becoming an airline pilot. Stakeholders were also concerned that available financial assistance may not be sufficient, given the high costs of pilot training and relatively low entry-level wages.