In the 1980s and 1990s, NWS undertook a nationwide modernization  program to develop new systems and technologies and to consolidate its  field office structure. NWS Is Positioning Itself to Provide Better Service through Upgrades to Its Systems and Technologies

NWS is positioning itself to provide better service through system and  technology upgrades. Over the next few years, the agency plans to upgrade  and improve its systems, predictive weather models, and computational  abilities, and it appropriately links these upgrades to its performance  goals. Further, in its annual performance  plans, NOAA reports on expected NWS service improvements and  identifies the technologies and systems that are expected to help improve  them. For example, NWS expects to  reduce its average error in forecasting a hurricane’s path by approximately  20 nautical miles between 2005 and 2011 through a combination of  upgrades to observation systems, better hurricane forecast models,  enhancements to the computer infrastructure, and research that will be  transferred to NWS forecast operations. Also, NWS expects tornado  warning lead times to increase from 13 to 15 minutes by the end of fiscal  year 2008 after NWS completes retrofits to the NEXRAD systems, realizes  the benefits of AWIPS software enhancements, and implements new  training techniques. NWS’s Training Is Expected to Result in Forecast Service Improvements, but the Training Selection Process Lacks Sufficient Oversight

NWS provides employee training courses that are expected to help  improve forecast service performance, but the agency’s process for  selecting this training lacks sufficient oversight. In justifying training courses,  program officials routinely link proposed courses to NWS forecast  performance measures. Specifically, in 2006, 131 of the 134 original  training needs were linked to expectations for improved forecasting  performance—including training on cardiopulmonary resuscitation, spill  prevention, leadership, systems security, and equal employment  opportunity/diversity. The training selection process did not validate or  question that these courses would improve tornado warning lead times or  hurricane warning accuracy. Although these courses are important and  likely justifiable on other bases, the overuse of this justification  undermines the distinctions among training courses and the credibility of  the course selection process. Additionally, because the training selection  process does not clearly distinguish among courses, it is difficult to  determine whether sufficient funds are dedicated to the courses that are  expected improve performance. Changing Concept of Operations Could Affect Nationwide Office Configuration, but Impact on Forecast Services, Staffing, and Budget Is Not Yet Known

NWS plans to develop a prototype of a new concept of operations—an  effort that could affect its national office configuration, including the  location and functions of its offices nationwide. However, NWS has yet to  determine many details about the impact of any proposed changes on  NWS forecast services, staffing, and budget. Further, NWS has not yet  identified key activities, timelines, or measures for evaluating the concept  of operations prototype. As a result, it is not evident that NWS will collect  the information it needs on the impact and benefits of any office  restructuring in order to make sound and cost-effective decisions. GAO staff who made major contributions to this report are  listed in appendix V.

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were (1) to evaluate the National Weather Service’s (NWS)  efforts to achieve improvements in the delivery of its services through  upgrades to its systems, models, and computational abilities; (2) to assess  the agency’s plans to achieve improvements in the delivery of its services  through the training and professional development of its employees; and  (3) to evaluate the agency’s plans for revising its nationwide office  configuration and the implications of these plans on local forecasting  services, staffing, and budgets.
Why GAO Did This Study

To provide accurate and timely weather forecasts, the National Weather Service (NWS) uses systems, technologies, and manual processes to collect, process, and disseminate weather data to its nationwide network of field offices and centers. After completing a major modernization program in the 1990s, NWS is seeking to upgrade its systems with the goal of improving its forecasting abilities, and it is considering changing how its nationwide office structure operates in order to enhance efficiency. GAO was asked to (1) evaluate NWS's efforts to achieve improvements in the delivery of its services through system and technology upgrades, (2) assess agency plans to achieve service improvements through training its employees, and (3) evaluate agency plans to revise its nationwide office configuration and the implications of these plans on local forecasting services, staffing, and budgets.

What GAO Found

NWS is positioning itself to provide better service through over $315 million in planned upgrades to its systems and technologies. In annual plans, the agency links expected improvements in its service performance measures with the technologies and systems expected to improve them. For example, NWS expects to reduce the average error in its forecasts of hurricane paths by approximately 20 nautical miles between 2005 and 2011 through a combination of upgrades to observation systems, better hurricane forecast models, enhancements to the computer infrastructure, and research that will be transferred to forecast operations. Also, NWS expects to increase tornado warning lead times from 13 to 15 minutes by the end of fiscal year 2008 after the agency completes an upgrade to its radar system and realizes benefits from software improvements to its forecaster workstations. NWS also provides training courses for its employees to help improve its forecasting services, but the agency's process for selecting training lacks sufficient oversight. Program officials propose and justify training needs on the basis of up to eight different criteria--including whether a course is expected to improve NWS forecasting performance measures, support customer outreach, or increase scientific awareness. Many of these course justifications appropriately demonstrate support for improved forecasting performance. For example, training on how to more effectively use forecaster workstations is expected to help improve tornado and hurricane warnings. However, in justifying training courses, program officials routinely link courses to NWS forecasting performance measures. For example, in 2006, almost all training needs were linked to expectations for improved performance--including training on cardiopulmonary resuscitation, spill prevention, and systems security. The training selection process did not validate or question how these courses could help improve weather forecasts. Overuse of this justification undermines the distinctions among different training courses and the credibility of the course selection process. Additionally, because the training selection process does not clearly distinguish among courses, it is difficult to determine whether sufficient funds are dedicated to the courses that are expected to improve performance. To improve its efficiency, NWS plans to develop a prototype of a new concept of operations, an effort that could affect its national office configuration, including the location and functions of its offices nationwide. However, many details about the impact of any proposed changes on NWS forecast services, staffing, and budget have yet to be determined. Further, the agency has not yet determined key activities, timelines, or measures for evaluating the prototype of the new office operational structure. As a result, it is not evident that NWS will collect the information it needs on the impact and benefits of any office restructuring in order to make sound and cost-effective decisions.