1). Accurate. Finally, experts identified  several barriers to improving inventory comparability and quality. Recent Reviews Found That Selected Annex I Nations’ Inventories Were Comparable and of High Quality, but Some Estimates Have Substantial Uncertainty

All of the inventories submitted in 2009 by the seven selected Annex I  nations were generally comparable and of high quality, according to the  most recent inventory reviews conducted by expert review teams under  the Convention. review to developing nations. In addition, experts and the national communications of selected non- Annex I nations identified several other barriers to improving the quality  and comparability of inventories from non-Annex I nations, including:    Less stringent reporting guidelines and lack of review. The Inventory Review Process for Annex I Nations Has Several Strengths and Some Limitations, and No Comparable Process Exists for Non-Annex I Nations

Experts said that the process for reviewing inventories from Annex I  nations has several notable strengths. They also identified three  limitations, which may present challenges in the future. Two experts said that the inventory reviews  provide constructive feedback to improve inventories from Annex I  nations. Experts Said the Inventory System Is Generally Sufficient for Monitoring Compliance with Current Agreements, but Future Agreements with Non- Annex I Nations Could Pose Challenges

Most experts we interviewed said that the inventory system for Annex I  and non-Annex I nations is generally sufficient for monitoring compliance  with current agreements. In international negotiations, State has emphasized the  need for better information on emissions from all high-emitting nations,  including non-Annex I nations. However, the current inventory system does not  request high quality emissions information from non-Annex I nations,  which account for the largest and fastest growing share of global  emissions. For example, some experts and nations have reported concerns  about inconsistent reviews and that resources may not be sufficient in the  future. Recognizing the importance of high quality and comparable data on  emissions from Annex I and non-Annex I Parties to the Convention in  developing and monitoring international climate change agreements,  we recommend that the Secretary of State continue to work with other  Parties to the Convention in international negotiations to encourage  non-Annex I Parties, especially high-emitting nations, to enhance their  inventories, including by reporting in a more timely, comprehensive,  and comparable manner, and possibly establishing a process for  reviewing their inventories. 2. To provide greater assurance that the review process has an adequate  supply of reviewers and provides consistent reviews, we recommend  that the Secretary of State, as the U.S. representative to the  Framework Convention, work with other Parties to the Convention to  explore strengthening the quality assurance framework for the  inventory review process. Appendix I: Scope and Methodology

Our review provides information on: (1) the comparability, quality, and  barriers to improving inventories submitted by developed and developing  nations to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  (the Convention); (2) the strengths and limitations of the Convention’s  inventory review process; and (3) the views of experts on the implications  for agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, to address the first objective, we selected a nonprobability  sample of 14 nations, seven Annex I nations—Australia, Canada, Germany,  Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—and seven non- Annex I nations—Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and  South Korea—based on the size of their emissions (including emissions  from land-use and land-use change and forestry). Climate Change: Expert Opinion on the Economics of Policy Options to  Address Climate Change.
Why GAO Did This Study

Nations that are Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change periodically submit inventories estimating their greenhouse gas emissions. The Convention Secretariat runs a review process to evaluate inventories from 41 "Annex I" nations, which are mostly economically developed nations. The 153 "non-Annex I" nations are generally less economically developed and have less stringent inventory reporting guidelines. The Department of State (State) represents the United States in international climate change negotiations. GAO was asked to report on (1) what is known about the comparability and quality of inventories and barriers, if any, to improvement; (2) what is known about the strengths and limits of the inventory review process; and (3) views of experts on implications for current and future international agreements to reduce emissions. GAO analyzed inventory reviews and inventories from the seven highest-emitting Annex I nations and seven of the highest emitting non-Annex I nations. GAO also selected and interviewed experts.

What GAO Found

Recent reviews by expert teams convened by the Secretariat found that the 2009 inventories from the selected Annex I nations--Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States--were generally comparable and of high quality. For selected non-Annex I nations--Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and South Korea--GAO found most inventories were dated and of lower comparability and quality. Experts GAO interviewed said data availability, scientific uncertainties, limited incentives, and different guidelines for non-Annex I nations were barriers to improving their inventories. The lack of comparable, high quality inventories from non-Annex I nations is important because they are the largest and fastest growing source of emissions, and information about their emissions is important to efforts to address climate change. There are no inventory reviews for non-Annex I nations. Experts said the inventory review process has notable strengths for Annex I nations as well as some limitations. The review process, which aims to ensure nations have accurate information on inventories, is rigorous, involves well-qualified reviewers, and provides feedback to improve inventories, according to experts. Among the limitations experts identified is a lack of independent verification of estimates due to the limited availability of independent statistics against which to compare inventories' data. Also, GAO found that the review process's quality assurance framework does not independently assess concerns about a limited supply of reviewers and inconsistent reviews, which could pose challenges in the future. Experts said Annex I nations' inventories and the inventory review process are generally sufficient for monitoring compliance with current agreements to reduce emissions. For non-Annex I nations, however, experts said the current system may be insufficient for monitoring compliance with future agreements, which may require more reporting. As part of ongoing negotiations to develop a new climate change agreement, State has emphasized the need for better information on emissions from high-emitting non-Annex I nations. While improving the inventory system is important to negotiations, some experts said disagreements about emissions limits for developed and developing nations pose a greater challenge.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Secretary of State work with other Parties to the Convention to (1) continue encouraging non-Annex I Parties to improve their inventories and (2) strengthen the inventory review process's quality assurance framework. State agreed with GAO's findings and recommendations.