Thailand is an important trade and investment partner for the United States, and U.S. access to Thai military facilities and sustained military-to-military cooperation make Thailand an important element of the U.S. strategic presence in the Asia-Pacific region. Bangkok's political turmoil over the past decade has harmed the bilateral relationship. With Bangkok consumed with its own political crises, analysts believe Thailand's ability to help with regional initiatives, including those supported by the United States, is severely limited. If Thailand is under a military government for an extended period, what are the implications for U.S. relations with one of its Asian treaty allies and for U.S. policy in the region? Two days later, the military ousted the civilian government, and Army Commander Prayuth Chan-ocha seized power. Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was placed under house arrest (she was later released). Response to the Coup

In response to the 2014 coup, the United States immediately suspended $4.7 million in foreign assistance to Thailand, cancelled a series of military exercises and Thai military officers' visits, and urged a quick return to civilian rule and early elections. The 2006 coup was the first in 15 years. Thaksin's 2001-2006 tenure as Prime Minister was marked by an unprecedented centralization of power in the Prime Minister's office, as well as the implementation of populist economic policies such as the public subsidy of health care. When demonstrations have occurred, they have usually been between two main groups: the "yellow shirts" (with sub-groups such as the People's Alliance for Democracy and the People's Democratic Reform Committee) and the "red shirts" (sometimes known as the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship).The yellow shirts are a mix of the military, royalists, the bureaucracy, and largely urban and middle class citizens. Role of the Palace

The ailing King Bhumiphol Adulyadej has remained largely disengaged from the ongoing political crisis. There is no other arbiter of the King's status—pointing to the weakness of Thailand's other political institutions—and the succession process is unclear. U.S.-Thailand Security Relations

In many ways, the military-to-military connection has been the strongest pillar of the U.S.-Thai relationship. The United States has a statutory obligation to withhold aid to militaries involved in coups against democratically elected governments and, after the 2014 coup, the United States suspended military assistance and training exercises with Thailand, chilling relations. Thailand's education system is consistently ranked below some other Southeast Asian nations. His sister, Yingluck, also implemented populist policies. They worry that China is gaining more leverage in Thailand—particularly given the chill in U.S.-Thai relations. Without a strong U.S.-Thai relationship, analysts warn that it will be increasingly difficult to strengthen treaty alliances and regional multilateral organizations such as ASEAN. Thailand-Burma Ties

Historically, Thailand has had an uneasy, albeit peaceful, relationship with Burma—both in the past when Burma was controlled by the military and currently with the military ceding some control to the country's civilian politicians. Relations with Malaysia have been complicated by the insurgency in Thailand's majority-Muslim southern provinces, which border Malaysia (see next section). Also, the Thai government has a poor record on combating human trafficking, and its security forces have been accused of human rights violations in the southern provinces throughout the country's various administrations. For decades, many observers have been concerned about Thailand's democracy. However, after the 2006 coup, a new constitution was drafted. In 2014, UNHCR estimated that around 120,000 Burmese refugees lived in nine camps along the Thai-Burmese border.
Thailand is a long-time military ally and a significant trade and economic partner for the United States. For many years, Thailand was seen as a model democracy in Southeast Asia, although this image, along with U.S.-Thai relations, has been complicated by deep political and economic instability in the wake of two military coups in the past nine years. The first, in 2006, displaced Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a popular but polarizing figure who is currently living in exile. The second, in 2014, deposed an acting prime minister after Thaksin's sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted from the premiership by a Constitutional Court decision that many saw as politically motivated. After the 2014 coup, the military installed General Army Commander Prayuth Chan-ocha as Prime Minister. He remains head of the Thai government. The junta is drafting a new constitution, and elections are unlikely before 2017.
Thailand's political instability stems primarily from the rivalry between Thaksin's supporters (loosely known as "red shirts") and his opponents ("yellow shirts"—largely urban elites, the military, and those loyal to Thailand's King). Parties loyal to Thaksin have won the last six nationwide elections, including several that took place after the 2006 coup, but a series of prime ministers have been removed, either via coup or court action.
Following the 2014 coup, Thailand faces numerous risks to internal stability. Thaksin's supporters, analysts warn, feel increasingly disenfranchised, and they may resort to violence to express their political grievances in the future. Concerns also surround the health of Thailand's widely revered King Bhumiphol Adulyadej and uncertainty about the royal succession process. The royal palace is one of Thailand's most powerful institutions, and in the past, the King has intervened in periods of internal conflict. Thailand's government also must contend with a low-level insurgency in the country's southern, Muslim-majority provinces, where around 6,000 have been killed since 2004.
Some analysts see U.S.-Thailand relations at an important crossroad. For decades, bilateral military-to-military cooperation has been robust in terms of security assistance, training, and military exercises. After the 2014 coup, the United States suspended security assistance funds to Thailand, and the rationale for an ongoing military relationship is challenged, given that the Thai military has overthrown several democratically elected governments. Nevertheless, some analysts contend that maintaining the U.S.-Thai relationship is vital, warning that, without it, the United States may lose access to Thailand's strategically located military facilities and that China may become even more influential in the region. Dozens of other U.S. agencies also base their regional headquarters in Thailand, and some officials worry that political tension with Bangkok could threaten those operations as well.
U.S. interests may also be affected by Thailand's political instability, which limits Bangkok's ability to pursue an active foreign policy. Thailand has historically been a leader of the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and it maintains relatively close relations with both China and neighboring Myanmar. Some believe that having a U.S. ally focused deeply on domestic instability could limit opportunities to pursue broader regional initiatives.
The United States and the international community have raised other concerns about Thailand, mainly having to do with human trafficking, the large refugee population living within the country's borders, and human rights and democracy conditions. This report will be updated periodically.