	Background

Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate  operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the  Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series,  managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration  (NOAA) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP),  managed by the Department of Defense (DOD). These models are a  primary tool for forecasting weather 3 or more days in advance,  including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. The  converged program, NPOESS, is considered critical to the United  States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather  forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2020. To  manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and NASA formed a tri-agency  Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA. Sound management is critical to program success. NPOESS Status and Plans: Decision on Program’s Future Direction on Hold, Interim Efforts Under Way

The future direction of the NPOESS program—what will be  delivered, at what cost, and by when—is currently on hold pending a  decision on how to proceed. Over the last few years, NPOESS has  experienced continued cost increases and schedule delays, requiring  difficult decisions about the program’s direction and capabilities. In mid-November 2005, we reported that the NPOESS executive  committee expected to make a decision in December 2005 on the  direction of the program. We urged the committee to make a decision quickly so  that the program could proceed. However, in late November 2005,  NPOESS cost growth exceeded a legislatively mandated threshold  that requires the Department of Defense to certify the program to  Congress. This placed any decision about the future direction of the  program on hold until the certification takes place in June 2006. Following certification, a decision on  future direction should be clear. That will require developing a new  program baseline and renegotiating contracts—efforts that could  take up to a year. As for continuing sensor development, because any major changes  to the program will not be known until the certification process is  completed, the program office has implemented an interim plan to  continue work on key sensors and other program elements within  the fiscal year 2006 funding profile. Considerations in Moving the NPOESS Program Forward

As NPOESS undergoes the Nunn-McCurdy certification process and  important decisions are made on how the program is to proceed,  there are several important considerations. ●  NOAA and NASA representation in the DOD Nunn-McCurdy  certification process is imperative. It will be important  for NOAA and NASA to remain active players in the deliberation of  options and the final decision on how to move the program forward. ●  Indecision increases the risk of a gap in satellite data. Specifically, if th satellite in the predecessor satellite series (the Polar-orbiting  Operational Environmental Satellites or POES) were to fail, there  would be a gap in satellite coverage until the first NPOESS sat was launched and put into operation (see fig. Once this decision is made, it will be important t move quickly to implement the decision in agency budgets and  contracts. Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Our objectives were to determine the National Polar-orbiting  Operational Environmental Satellite System’s (NPOESS) current  status and plans, and to discuss considerations in moving the  program forward.
Why GAO Did This Study

Polar-orbiting environmental satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. They are critical to long-term weather prediction, including advance forecasts of a hurricane's path and intensity. Our nation's current operational polar-orbiting environmental satellite program is a complex infrastructure that includes two satellite systems, supporting ground stations, and four central data processing centers. In the future, the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is to combine the two current systems into a single, state-of-the-art environment-monitoring satellite system. NPOESS is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate monitoring though the year 2020. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have formed a tri-agency integrated program office to manage NPOESS. GAO was asked to determine the NPOESS program's current status and plans and to discuss considerations in moving the program forward.

What GAO Found

The future direction of the NPOESS program--what will be delivered, at what cost, and by when--is currently on hold pending a decision on how to proceed. In recent years, the program has experienced significant cost increases and schedule delays, with cost estimates increasing to about $10 billion and launch delays approaching 3 years. These factors triggered the need for difficult decisions about the program's direction and capabilities. In mid-November 2005, GAO reported that the NPOESS executive committee expected to make a decision by December 2005 on the direction of the program. GAO noted the importance of making a decision quickly so that the program could proceed. However, in late November 2005, NPOESS cost growth exceeded a legislatively mandated threshold that requires DOD to certify the program to Congress. This placed any decision about future direction on hold until certification takes place in June 2006. In the meantime, the program office has implemented an interim plan to continue work on key sensors and other program elements using fiscal year 2006 funding. Following certification, a decision on future direction should be clear. Proceeding will require a new program baseline and renegotiated contracts--efforts that could take up to a year. As NPOESS undergoes the Defense certification process and important decisions are made on how the program is to proceed, there are several important considerations. First, NOAA and NASA representation in the DOD certification process is imperative. It will be important for these agencies to remain active players in the deliberation of options and the final decision on how to move the program forward. Second, continued indecision increases the risk of a gap in satellite coverage if the final satellite in the predecessor satellite series (the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites or POES) were to fail. Thus, once program direction is decided, it will be important to move quickly to adjust agency budgets and contracts. Third, continuing oversight of program and executive management is essential to avoid repeating past problems.