	Introduction

China, the only Communist Party ruled nation in the G-20 grouping of major economies, is in the midst of a sweeping set of Communist Party-orchestrated political transitions that began in 2011 and may not conclude until 2014. It is to have a new Politburo Standing Committee, whose members, including the Party General Secretary, would form China's new collective leadership. The second most important transition involves State and National People's Congress leaders, and is to take place at the 12 th National People's Congress in March 2013. China is the United States' second largest trading partner and largest supplier of imports, as well as being the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Both countries are major players in global efforts to tackle the European debt crisis, rein in the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, and manage instability in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring. China's military modernization is now a factor in U.S. strategic planning. With such weighty issues at stake, the United States has an interest in the identities of the officials who will make up China's new collective leadership, as well as in their policy portfolios, how they view the U.S.-China relationship and China's role in the world, and how effectively they can work together and with the United States. Congress and the United States also have an interest in understanding the mechanics of the transition as a way of evaluating progress, or the lack thereof, toward participatory politics in China. For a detailed discussion of the Chinese political system, please see CRS Report R41007, Understanding China's Political System , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed]. For background information about Xi Jinping, the man expected to be named General Secretary of the Communist Party at the 18 th Party Congress in November, see CRS Report R42342, China's Vice President Xi Jinping Visits the United States: What Is at Stake? , by [author name scrubbed]. Significant Characteristics of the Transitions

		A Drawn-Out Process

By design, the set of Chinese political transitions currently underway extend over a relatively long time-frame and involve all China's major political institutions: the Communist Party, which dominates China's political system; the People's Liberation Army, which is not a state army but rather an appendage of the Party; the State, to which the Communist Party delegates responsibility for implementing Party policies; the National People's Congress, China's Party-controlled legislature; and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a Party-controlled advisory body. The second major transition, and also the most consequential, is to take place at the Party's 18 th National Congress, scheduled to open on November 8, 2012, and the First Plenum of the 18 th Central Committee, held immediately afterwards. National People's Congress delegates are to "elect" the State President, who is expected to be Xi Jinping, the same man expected to be named Party General Secretary. What's in the 18th Party Congress' Policy Report? Xi Jinping, who is expected to succeed Hu Jintao as China's top leader, and Li Keqiang, who is expected to be named Premier of the State Council in March 2012, have both spent five years apprenticing for the jobs they are soon to occupy. Although the Party has worked hard to suggest that an orderly transition is inevitable, in three important respects, the challenge this time is greater than in 2002-2004:
In the last transition, Hu Jintao had been personally selected to be China's next top leader by Deng Xiaoping, the dominant political figure of the post-Mao Zedong era. In 2002-2004, Hu and his colleagues had to manage just one powerful retired Communist Party General Secretary maneuvering for influence behind the scenes, Jiang Zemin. The United States has a strong interest in the choices the new leadership makes. Responding to Calls for Political Reform

A particularly difficult challenge for China's new leaders is how to respond to calls for political reform both from the public and from within the Party. (See " Next Steps in the Bo Xilai Saga .")
China, the only Communist Party-led nation in the G-20 grouping of major economies, is in the midst of a sweeping set of political transitions that began in 2011 and could conclude as late as 2014. The most important of the transitions is to take place at the next of the Party's quinquennial national congresses, the 18th Congress, scheduled to open on November 8, 2012, and at a Central Committee meeting immediately afterwards, at which the Party is to appoint a new General Secretary and a new collective leadership. Four months later, at the 12th National People's Congress in March 2013, China is to appoint new State and National People's Congress leaders. The Party's new General Secretary, assumed to be Xi Jinping, is expected to be named State President, while another member of the collective Party leadership, current Vice Premier Li Keqiang, is expected to be named State Premier. So far unclear is whether China's current top leader, Hu Jintao, will give up his post overseeing China's military at the 18th Party Congress, or whether he will retain the military job for two more years, until 2014.
The U.S. Congress has a strong interest in China's upcoming leadership transitions. China is the United States' second largest trading partner and largest supplier of imports, as well as being the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt. Both countries are major players in global efforts to tackle the European debt crisis, rein in the nuclear ambitions of North Korea and Iran, and manage instability in the Middle East in the wake of the Arab Spring. China's military modernization is now a factor in U.S. strategic planning. Who the new Chinese leaders are, the inter-personal dynamics among them, and their policy inclinations will have significant implications for U.S.-China relations and for the China's role in the Asia-Pacific region and the world. Congress also has an interest in understanding China's upcoming political transitions as a means of evaluating China's progress, or lack thereof, toward giving its citizens a meaningful role in the development of their political system.
This report is intended to provide Congress with a guide to the transitions, covering their distinct features and specific issues of interest, including the Party's next steps in the ongoing scandal involving Bo Xilai, the former Chongqing Party Secretary and Politburo member who fell from grace after his wife was implicated in the murder of a British businessman. This report also previews some of the challenges facing China's new leaders, starting with the requirement to consolidate their power. Xi Jinping would be the first top leader in the post-Mao Zedong era not personally selected by Deng Xiaoping, the dominant political figure of the era. He and his colleagues will also have to contend with not one but two retired Communist Party General Secretaries jockeying for influence behind the scenes, and with an irreverent micro-blogging Chinese public primed to pounce on their mistakes. Policy challenges for China's new leaders include determining the appropriate role for the state sector in an ambitious shift in economic growth models, re-conceiving China's foreign policy, and deciding how to respond to growing public expectations for political reform. The United States has a strong interest in how China's new leaders choose to approach all those challenges.
Subsequent reports will cover the outcomes of the 18th Party Congress and the 12th National People's Congress. For a detailed discussion of the Chinese political system, please see CRS Report R41007, Understanding China's Political System , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed]. For background information about Xi Jinping, the man expected to be named General Secretary of the Communist Party at the 18th Party Congress in November, see CRS Report R42342, China's Vice President Xi Jinping Visits the United States: What Is at Stake?, by [author name scrubbed].