As part of this  effort, the Bureau  tested how well administrative records substituted for additional visits  to collect information from nonresponding households and from  proxies, such as neighbors;  compared the cost and productivity of traditional follow-up methods  to those relying on an enhanced operational control system,  demonstrating the potential benefits of automating the assignment of  work, scheduling the time of day for enumerators to conduct follow-up  to determine when residents were most likely to be home, as well as  efficient sequencing and routing of enumerator daily visits based on  administrative records and information from other surveys; and provided ground experience with prototypes of systems with leased  smartphone devices on which to collect data, which are not  necessarily reflective of the systems it may acquire or develop for  2020. The Bureau has more tests planned including a 2016  Census Test in selected areas within Harris County, Texas and Los  Angeles County, California; a large test of address canvassing also in  2016; an additional site test in 2017 at an as yet undetermined location;  and a 2018 end-to-end test—the equivalent of prior decennial cycles’  “dress rehearsal.”

	Administrative Records Can Reduce 2020 Fieldwork, but the Bureau Will Need to Better Define Milestones and Deadlines to Help Manage Risks

		Decennial Uses of Administrative Records Offer the Bureau the Opportunity to Reduce the Fieldwork Needed for the 2020 Census

In key planning documents, the Bureau describes a goal of using  administrative records to reduce the field work involved in its NRFU  operation. One of the largest potential efficiency  gains to the census may come from using administrative records to  remove these vacant units from the follow-up workload. The Bureau  has identified and obtained access to nearly all of the sources it believes  it needs to leverage all of the opportunities it has identified, including the  three uses (identify vacant housing units; identify and enumerate  nonresponding housing units that are occupied; and predict best times to  complete NRFU) the Bureau believes will generate a large portion of its  estimated $1.4 billion savings from the cost of traditional methods. The Bureau is Addressing Challenges to Using Administrative Records for the 2020 Census; Implementing Our Previous Recommendations Could Help

			The Bureau Has Processes in Place and Is Conducting Research and Testing to Ensure Quality of Records

Although the Bureau has no control over the accuracy of data provided to  it by other agencies, it is responsible for ensuring that data it uses for  2020 Census are of sufficient quality for their planned uses. This helps to improve the  master list of addresses. Bureau officials said they consider the 2015 Census Test a large success  because it allowed them to employ a variety of new methods and  advanced technologies that are under consideration for the 2020 Census. During the site test,  the Bureau experienced specific implementation issues, and these in turn  affected the measurement of the key cost drivers. Bureau officials acknowledged that problems with the implementation of  the test likely affected productivity measures to be used in calculating  future cost estimates. Reducing the number of field offices. Conclusions

Although administrative records have been discussed and used for the  decennial census since the 1970s, the Bureau plans a more significant  role for them to reduce the amount of data collection fieldwork to reduce  the cost of the decennial census in 2020. Knowing deadlines for when final go/no go decisions need to be  made about which records the Bureau will use, how it will use them, and  for which purposes will help ensure necessary activities are completed on  time. Deadlines regarding still uncertain purposes or those involving  records the Bureau is still pursuing, such as NDNH and KidLink, as well  as those from some states, will also help the Bureau prioritize which  activities—or records—to continue pursuing or to abandon if time  becomes a constraint. The Bureau’s early cost savings assumptions related to its use of  administrative records are logical, and the Bureau is taking steps to  develop further support for them. We plan to review the Bureau’s October  2015 cost estimate and latest estimates of savings from using  administrative records after the Bureau makes supporting documentation  available. The Department of Commerce also provided minor technical comments  that were incorporated, as appropriate. Specifically,  our objectives were to review (1) the Bureau’s plans for using  administrative records for 2020 and what opportunities and challenges  the Bureau faces in using them; (2) the extent to which the Bureau’s key  2015 test of administrative records were implemented in accordance with  its testing objectives and what the Bureau’s experience implementing  selected aspects of the test was; and (3) key assumptions supporting the  cost savings estimates to be achieved from administrative records. When examining the extent to  which implementation issues may have affected measurement of key cost  drivers in the 2015 Census Test, we relied on our Cost Estimating and  Assessment Guide for criteria.
Why GAO Did This Study

The cost of the decennial census has steadily increased during the past 40 years, prompting the Bureau to reengineer key census-taking methods for the 2020 Census, including making greater use of information from administrative records. Given the potential cost savings associated with the use of administrative records, GAO reviewed (1) the Bureau's plans for using them and what opportunities and challenges the Bureau faces going forward; (2) the extent to which the Bureau's key 2015 test of them was implemented in accordance with objectives; and (3) the key assumptions supporting estimates of expected cost savings. To meet these objectives, GAO reviewed Bureau planning documents and test plans, interviewed Bureau officials, and observed implementation of the 2015 Census Test in Arizona. GAO also relied on its Schedule Assessment Guide.

What GAO Found

Increased reliance on administrative records—information already provided to the government as it administers other programs—has been discussed since the 1970s as a possible way to improve the quality or reduce the cost of the decennial census, and it may finally play a significant role in the decennial census in 2020. The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates that it can save $1.4 billion using administrative records, compared to relying solely on traditional methods.
The Bureau recently completed its 2015 Census Test in Maricopa County, Arizona—a major test involving administrative records. The Bureau used this census test to demonstrate the feasibility of using administrative records to reduce the cost of its largest decennial field operation, following up door to door to enumerate households that do not respond to the census. Yet turning this estimated savings—and the potential savings from other uses of the records, such as using administrative records to help validate and update the address list rather than having to send temporary workers to every housing unit in the country—into a real cost reduction for the taxpayer will require detailed planning that includes milestones for ensuring outstanding challenges are addressed. This would include preventing disclosure of records and addressing concerns the public may have over their use, and obtaining access to remaining records. The Bureau has not set deadlines for deciding which records it will use and for which purposes, but doing so will help the Bureau complete needed activities on time and prioritize which activities—or records—to abandon if time and resources become a constraint.
Bureau officials said they consider the test a large success because it demonstrated a variety of new methods and advanced technologies that are under consideration for the 2020 Census. The test also demonstrated the feasibility of a prototype system for managing the field operation, yet implementation issues with some of the prototype technology were not systematically reported or tracked, and may have affected the usefulness of test data. Systematic problems arising during test interviews can affect key test measures, such as the number of hours spent going door to door. Knowing which cases experienced such problems can help link cost estimates to specific design features and prioritize future research, development, and acquisition efforts.
Key assumptions the Bureau used in estimating potential cost savings from administrative records are logical, and the Bureau plans to provide additional support for them. For example, the Bureau's assumption that it could reduce its follow-up workload follows clearly from the Bureau's use of administrative records to remove vacant units from among those housing units needing follow-up because people did not respond to the census, reducing that workload by 11.6 percent. This assumption was also validated by the Bureau's experience in its recent test, and the Bureau plans further testing of this assumption during future tests in 2016 and beyond. The Bureau released an updated life cycle cost estimate in October 2015, and GAO anticipates reviewing its reliability after the Bureau makes available support for the estimate.

What GAO Recommends

GAO recommends that the Census Director ensure that resources focus on activities with promise to reduce cost by documenting milestones related to deciding which records to use for which purposes and by systematically recording better information about implementation issues affecting specific cases in future tests. The Department of Commerce concurred with GAO's findings and recommendations, and provided minor technical comments, which were included in the final report.