Organization in Transition

Clearly Al Qaeda is in transition. (21) During the week before the Riyadh attacks, email interviews conducted by the London-based magazine AlMajalla apparently with Al Qaeda spokesman Thabetbin Qais claimed that Al Qaeda had undertaken a thorough restructuring of its leadership. (23) Also mentioned is Seif al-Adel, one of a number of younger AlQaeda members who seem to have gained influence in the absence of former leaders and who may have played arole. (24) Many worry that this could illustratean evolution within Al Qaeda to a new generation. In the wake of theAfghanistan and Iraq military campaigns, when the predicted terrorist attacks on the United States and its interestsdid not materialize, what is the current levelof threat to the United States?
The May 12, 2003, suicide bombings of three Western housing compounds in Riyadh,Saudi Arabia reopenedquestions about the strength and viability of Al Qaeda in the post-Iraq conflict environment. The apprehension ofa number of senior Al Qaeda leaders in recentmonths, combined with the absence of major terrorist attacks during the military campaign in Iraq, had led someto believe that Al Qaeda was severely crippledand unable to launch major attacks. Others argued that the organization was in transition to a more decentralizedstructure, had gained new recruits, and mighteven be a growing threat. This report analyzes current viewpoints about the state of Al Qaeda and the threat it posesto the United States. It will be updated asevents warrant.