Current Longbow Missile Quantities Are Significantly Overstated

According to OSD PA&E and our calculations, the current Longbow Hellfire missile procurement quantity of 12,722 missiles could be overstated by 7,145 missiles. Our work shows that the current Longbow Hellfire missile requirement contained an outdated helicopter missile-carrying capability and double counted missiles. Our review of this data showed that the Army used a helicopter carrying capability of 16 missiles instead of the current 12 and double counted missiles when it calculated the residual readiness element of the requirement. However, one study that may change the requirements—the Deep Attack Weapons Mix study—is not yet complete. Therefore, the current Longbow Hellfire requirement of 12,722 could be reduced by 7,145 missiles. The Army Material System Analysis Activity’s (AMSAA) independent evaluation of the Longbow Apache helicopter weapon system revealed that neither version of the airframe is meeting its vertical rate of climb requirement. The report states that to meet this requirement, weight needs to be reduced further. In addition, the December 1995 Selected Acquisition Report for the Longbow Apache system reported that the system’s demonstrated capability was only eight missiles. If the Army has to reduce requirements from 12 to 8 missiles to reduce weight, the combined total Longbow Hellfire and Hellfire II missile requirement would decline from the recalculated 11,153 missiles to 8,785. Using the one-to-one ratio between the 2 missiles, the Longbow Hellfire missile requirement would be lowered by an additional 1,184 missiles to 4,393; a reduction of over 8,300 missiles from the existing 12,722 requirement. To determine if the Army had successfully demonstrated the Longbow Hellfire missile’s requirements during IOT&E, we reviewed operational test reports and Army studies. We discussed these documents with officials in the Longbow Missile Program Office, the Longbow Radar Project Office in St. Louis, Missouri, and with representatives from the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, Washington, D. C.
To determine if the missile was on schedule to achieve its planned cost reduction, we reviewed the Army’s Cost Reduction Plan, current estimates, and projected costs for reduced quantities with officials in the Army’s Air to Ground Project Office, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama; the Army’s Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations and Plans, Washington, D. C.; and the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Program Analysis and Evaluation Office.
Why GAO Did This Study

GAO reviewed the Army's Longbow Hellfire missile program, focusing on whether the: (1) Army had adequately justified the requirement and quantities of the missile; and (2) missile had successfully demonstrated its requirements during the initial operational testing and evaluation.

What GAO Found

GAO noted that: (1) the Apache Longbow weapon system, which includes the Longbow Hellfire missile, completed initial operational test and evaluation in March 1995; (2) the tests concluded that the system was operationally effective and suitable; (3) however, the Army's current Longbow Hellfire missile requirement of 12,722 may be overstated by over 8,300 missiles; (4) the Army made computational errors and a questionable assumption in calculating missile requirements that resulted in a potential overstatement of 7,145 missiles; (5) in addition, test results indicate that the missile quantity could be reduced by another 1,184 missiles; (6) moreover, significant cost reductions can be achieved with lower missile quantities; (7) while cost estimates for an 8,300-missile quantity reduction are not yet available, the Office of the Secretary of Defense estimates that up to $500 million in program cost savings can be achieved by reducing quantities by approximately 4,000 units; (8) the Army's method of computing the quantities contains three critical errors; (9) the Army used an outdated helicopter carrying capability of 16 missiles instead of the current 12, double counted missiles when figuring the residual readiness portion of the requirement, and used an unsubstantiated mix ratio between the Longbow Hellfire and Hellfire II missiles; (10) correcting these mistakes would potentially reduce the current 12,722-missile requirement for Longbow Hellfire missiles by 7,145 missiles; (11) in addition, the Army Materiel System Analysis Activity's independent evaluation of the Apache Longbow weapon system disclosed that the Apache Longbow system's weight needs to be reduced by almost 600 pounds to achieve its vertical rate of climb specification; (12) according to Army data, the system's current demonstrated capability is calculated using 8 missiles instead of 12; and (13) if the Army lowers its missile carrying capability to 8 to meet the Apache Longbow system weight limitation, this would further reduce the missile requirement by 1,184.