In response to congressional concerns about NASA’s decision to cancel  the servicing mission, NASA requested that the National Research Council  conduct an independent assessment of options for extending the life of the  Hubble Space Telescope. The CAIB concluded that the Columbia accident was caused by  both physical and organizational failures. NASA’s Cost Estimate for a Hubble Servicing Mission Using the Shuttle Is Not Definitive

NASA does not currently have a definitive cost estimate for servicing the  Hubble Telescope using the shuttle. The agency focused on safety  concerns related to a servicing mission by the space shuttle in deciding  not to proceed, and did not develop a cost estimate. At our request NASA  prepared an estimate of the funding needed for a Hubble servicing mission  by the space shuttle. At our request NASA began development of an estimate of the funding  needed for a shuttle servicing mission to the Hubble. NASA has determined that the additional  funds needed to perform a shuttle servicing mission for Hubble would be  in the range of $1.7 billion to $2.4 billion. For example, NASA officials told us that the Hubble project’s  sustaining engineering costs run $9 to10 million per month, but they were  unable to produce a calculation or documents to support the estimate  because they do not track these costs by servicing mission. The lack of documented support for portions  of NASA’s estimate increases the risk of variation to the estimate. Further,  NASA recognizes that there are many uncertainties that could change the  current estimate. Since we began our review, attention has focused on alternatives to a  shuttle mission, such as robotic servicing of Hubble. NASA provided us with  documentary support for portions of the return to flight estimate, but we  found it to be insufficient. According to NASA, the agency’s cost for  returning the shuttle to flight, which is slightly over $2 billion, will remain  uncertain until the completion of the first shuttle missions to the  International Space Station in fiscal year 2005. However, NASA cautions that the  total cost of returning the shuttle to flight will remain uncertain until  completion of the first shuttle missions to the space station, scheduled to  begin in spring 2005. According to  NASA, the estimates will mature as the technical solutions mature, but the  estimates were not refined at the time of our review. To determine the basis for NASA’s cost estimate for implementing all of  the CAIB recommendations, we reviewed the CAIB report (volume 1),  NASA’s return to flight implementation plan and budget estimates, and  agency documentation discussing the return to flight budget estimate.
Why GAO Did This Study

Hubble's continued operation has been dependent on manned servicing missions using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) shuttle fleet. The fleet was grounded in early 2003 following the loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia, as NASA focused its efforts on responding to recommendations made by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). In January 2004, NASA announced its decision to cancel the final planned Hubble servicing mission, primarily because of safety concerns. Without some type of servicing mission, NASA anticipates that Hubble will cease to support scientific investigations by the end of the decade. NASA's decision not to service the Hubble prompted debate about potential alternatives to prolong Hubble's mission and the respective costs of these alternatives. This report addresses the basis of NASA's cost estimates to (1) service Hubble using the shuttle and (2) implement recommendations made by the CAIB. GAO is continuing its work on the Congressional request that GAO examine the potential cost of a robotic servicing mission to the Hubble Telescope.

What GAO Found

Although a shuttle servicing mission is one of the options for servicing the Hubble Space Telescope, to date, NASA does not have a definitive estimate of the potential cost. At our request, NASA prepared an estimate of the funding needed for a shuttle servicing mission to the Hubble. NASA estimates the cost at between $1.7 billion to $2.4 billion. However, documentary support for portions of the estimate is insufficient. For example, NASA officials told us that the Hubble project's sustaining engineering costs run $9 to 10 million per month, but they were unable to produce a calculation or documents to support the estimate because they do not track these costs by servicing mission. Additionally, the agency has acknowledged that many uncertainties, such as the lack of a design solution for autonomous inspection and repair of the shuttle, could change the estimate. A t the same time, NASA has yet to develop a definitive cost estimate for implementing all of the CAIB's recommendations but has developed a budget estimate for safely returning the shuttle to flight--a subset of activities recommended by the CAIB as needed to return the shuttle to full operations. NASA currently estimates return to flight costs will exceed $2 billion, but that estimate will likely be refined as the agency continues to define technical concepts. NASA provided support for portions of the estimate, but we found the support to be insufficient--either because key documents were missing or the estimates lacked sufficient detail. Further, NASA cautions that return to flight costs will remain uncertain until the first return to flight shuttle mission, which is scheduled to go to the International Space Station in spring 2005.