	Introduction

The current gap between U.S. coal supply and domestic demand may widen as low cost natural gas becomes more attractive to electric power plants, and uncertainties with new environmental regulations discourage investment in new coal plants. Coal producers with excess supply will likely seek to expand their market abroad. Consequently, in the long run (over the next decade and possibly longer), U.S. coal exports are expected to rise. Growth potential in Asian coal markets seems large, but there are potential bottlenecks (e.g., lack of infrastructure, potential rising costs of regulation, competition from other fuels, and transportation), which could slow export growth. The EIA includes coal in its 2013 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release. In its reference case, net exports of coal may increase through 2040, increasing almost 50% from 2011 levels. Increased net exports could improve the U.S. trade balance as well as add government revenue from production on federal lands that might otherwise decline because of falling domestic consumption. Exporting coal may run counter to the current Administration's domestic environmental policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and affect current U.S. policy goals addressing global climate change and other environmental issues. Depending upon the location of the coal exports, certain parts of the country may benefit economically. Current and projected coal exports, issues associated with infrastructure, and the environment have prompted interest by Congress. U.S. Exports: Trends Point Up

The United States has been exporting coal since the late 1800s. From 2003 to 2012, U.S. coal exports rose over 200%, mainly driven by competitive production costs, global demand, and lower prices, among other factors (see Figure 5 ). Coal exports comprised 12% of U.S. coal production in 2012. In 2011, U.S. coal exports broke 100 MST for the first time since 1992 and in 2012 reached 126 MST, surpassing their previous peak of almost 113 MST in 1981. The value of U.S. coal exports has increased, rising from under $10 billion in 2010 to almost $16 billion in 2011, according to EIA data (see Figure 6 ). The Future of U.S. Coal Exports

There are several key factors likely to influence how much coal will be exported from the United States. Several export terminal projects have been proposed by 2016, such that the United States could be exporting more than double its current coal exports. Projects in the Pacific Northwest have attracted much of the attention, even though the Northeast or Mid- and South Atlantic ports continue to account for most exports. Coal Exports and the Environment

		Support and Opposition to Increased PRB Exports

Representatives from state and local agencies along the potential coal transport corridor, particularly in Washington and Oregon, as well as industry, community, and environmental groups, have raised certain concerns over port terminal projects that would allow for increased export of PRB coal through the Pacific Northwest. Opponents, including several environmental groups, have argued that increased train and barge traffic would have significant adverse impacts to the human, natural, and cultural environment. Project supporters have argued that the projects would create or maintain jobs in the construction, mining, and transportation industries and bring increased tax revenue to the states. A Role for NEPA64

Broadly, NEPA requires federal agencies to consider the environmental impacts of their actions before a final decision is made regarding that action. Additionally, in delineating the project impacts that warrant the preparation of an EIS, EPA identified the potential public health impacts from coal dust and diesel pollution related to the proposed Coyote Island terminal project; the high level of interest and concern among communities, agencies, interest groups, and industries regarding the proposal to transport coal from Wyoming and Montana to Asia; the uncertainty of potential impacts of transporting large quantities of PRB coal, including trans loading activities on the Columbia River; and the proposed and potential future projects' contribution to cumulatively significant impacts to human health and the environment from increases in greenhouse gas emissions, rail traffic, mining activities on public lands, and the transport of particulate matter and mercury from Asia to the United States, among other possible impacts.
The gap between available U.S. coal supply and demand may continue to widen as low cost natural gas becomes more attractive to electric power plants and uncertainties with emission regulations may inhibit new coal plant investments. Coal producers with excess supply will likely seek to expand their market abroad. Consequently, U.S. coal exports are forecast to continue to rise over the next decade and possibly longer. Growth potential in Asian markets seems large, but there are potential bottlenecks, such as infrastructure and potential rising costs of regulation, competition from other fuels, and transportation constraints that could slow export growth.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), in its 2013 Annual Energy Outlook Early Release reference case, projects net exports of coal to trend up through 2040, almost 50% from 2011 levels, with some fluctuations. The significance of this may have short- and long-term ramifications as well as positive and negative consequences. Increased net exports could improve the U.S. trade balance as well as add government revenue from production that may otherwise decline because of falling domestic consumption. Environmentally, exporting coal may run counter to the current Administration's domestic environmental policies and affect U.S. efforts to address global environmental issues. Depending upon the nature of the coal exports, certain parts of the country may benefit economically. Current and projected coal exports, the associated infrastructure, and the environmental consequences have prompted interest by Congress.
The United States has been exporting coal since the late 1800s. From 2003 to 2012, U.S. coal exports have risen over 200%, mainly driven by competitive production costs, global demand, and lower prices, among other factors. Coal exports comprised 12% of U.S. coal production in 2012. In 2011, U.S. coal exports broke 100 million short tons (MST) for the first time since 1992 and in 2012 surpassed their peak of almost 113 MST in 1981. The value of U.S. coal exports has increased, rising from under $10 billion in 2010 to almost $16 billion in 2011, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data.
Many factors will influence how much coal will be exported from the United States. Enough projects have been proposed that by 2016 the United States could be exporting more than double its current coal exports. Projects in the Pacific Northwest have attracted much of the attention, even though the Northeast continues to be the source for most exports.
Representatives from state and local agencies, particularly in Washington and Oregon, as well as industry, community, and environmental groups, along the potential coal transport corridor, have expressed outright support for or opposition to port terminal projects that would allow for increased export of Powder River Basin coal through the Pacific Northwest. Opponents have argued that increased train and barge traffic will have significant adverse impacts to the human, natural, and cultural environment. Project supporters have argued that the projects would create or maintain jobs in the construction, mining, and transportation industries and bring increased tax revenue to the states.
Broadly, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires federal agencies to consider the environmental impacts of their actions before a final decision is made regarding that action.