More generally, now that the census has moved to the operational phase, it  will be important for the Bureau to stay on schedule. A time line of key census  operations is shown in figure 1. Consequently, as the enumeration progresses, it will be important  for the Bureau to closely monitor key performance metrics to ensure that  the various operations are on track and quickly address any glitches. Key IT Systems Are Experiencing Significant Performance Issues

Although the Bureau has made progress in testing and deploying IT  systems for the 2010 Census, significant performance issues have been  identified with both the workflow management system—PBOCS—as well  as with the Decennial Applicant Personnel and Payroll System (DAPPS),  the automated system the Bureau is using to handle the payroll of the  more than 1 million temporary employees that are to work on the census. Bureau officials stated that many of these issues were resolved during the  second iteration of testing; however, others remain to be resolved and new  issues were identified. In  addition, the development and testing of two other releases is needed  before the system is ready for other key field operations, such as the  enumeration of residents in group quarters, scheduled to begin in March  2010. The Bureau Has Revised Its Cost Estimate for Nonresponse Follow- up, but Needs to Complete Additional Updates as Planned

In 2008, we reported that the Bureau had not carried out the necessary  analyses to demonstrate that the then life-cycle cost estimate of about  $11.5 billion for the 2010 Census was credible, and we recommended that  the Bureau better document and update the estimate, to which it generally  agreed. According to the Bureau, two cost drivers—workload, based on the mail  response rate, and productivity—are uncertain and could have a  significant effect on the ultimate cost of NRFU. However, the Bureau’s  analyses of cost are not complete. Those activities include procedures for  fingerprinting temporary employees; the Bureau’s efforts to count people  residing in nursing homes, dormitories, and other group living  arrangements known as “group quarters”; the rollout of key marketing  efforts aimed at improving the participation of hard-to-count populations;  the Bureau’s plans for a mailing a second, follow-up questionnaire and the  removal of late mail returns; and the Bureau’s plans to secure a complete  count in the hurricane-affected areas along the Gulf Coast. Bureau Has Taken Steps to Reduce the Number of Unclassifiable Fingerprints of Temporary Workers

The Bureau plans to fingerprint its temporary workforce for the first time  in the 2010 Census to better conduct background security checks on its  workforce of hundreds of thousands of temporary census workers. The Bureau has also revised its procedures for refingerprinting employees  when both fingerprint cards cannot be read. Under the revised policy, the Bureau plans to digitally capture a third and  fourth set of fingerprints if the FBI cannot classify the first two sets. Further, the Bureau targeted the paid advertising  messages based on market and attitudinal research. In summary, our analysis suggests that the paid advertising and  partnership activities, along with the other components of the Bureau’s  communications campaign, are generally more robust than the Bureau’s  promotional efforts during the 2000 Census in that the entire effort is more  comprehensive, and activities appear to be more data-driven and targeted. Also, the  Bureau plans to mail approximately 12 million replacement questionnaires  to nonresponding households in other census tracts that had low-to- moderate response rates in 2000 (known as targeted replacement). Moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau to ensure that local  census offices follow these procedures so that households are not  unnecessarily visited by an enumerator or inadvertently removed from the  follow-up workload and missed in the census count. To ensure a quality count in the hurricane-affected areas, the Bureau will  hand-deliver an estimated 1.2 million census questionnaires in these areas  through the Update Leave operation, where census workers update  addresses and provide a mail-back census questionnaire to each living  quarter in their assigned areas.
Why GAO Did This Study

In March 2008, GAO designated the 2010 Census a high-risk area in part because of information technology (IT) shortcomings and uncertainty over the ultimate cost of the census, now estimated at around $15 billion. The U.S. Census Bureau (Bureau) has since made improvements to various IT systems and taken other steps to mitigate the risks of a successful census. However, last year, GAO noted that a number of challenges and uncertainties remained, and much work remained to be completed under very tight time frames. As requested, this testimony provides an update on the Bureau's readiness for an effective headcount, covering (1) the status of key IT systems; (2) steps the Bureau has taken to revise its cost estimates; and (3) the extent to which critical enumeration activities, particularly those aimed at hard-to-count populations, are on track. The testimony is based on previously issued and ongoing GAO work.

What GAO Found

Overall, the Bureau's readiness for a successful headcount is mixed. On the one hand, ongoing performance issues are affecting key IT systems, especially a workflow management system essential for the Bureau's field operations and a payroll processing system that will be used to pay more than 1 million temporary workers. Indeed, an important performance test the Bureau held in December 2009 revealed significant performance issues with each system. Bureau officials stated that many of these issues were resolved in further testing; however, others remain unresolved, and new defects were identified. The Bureau is going to great lengths to address these issues. However, little time remains before the systems need to become fully operational. In addition, the Bureau revised its cost estimate from $2.7 billion to $2.3 billion for nonresponse follow-up, the largest and most costly field operation where census workers follow up in person with nonresponding households. However, the Bureau's analyses of cost are not complete. According to the Bureau, it continues to reexamine the cost of two other nonresponse follow-up related operations. On the other hand, the rollout of key enumeration activities is generally on track, and the Bureau has taken action to address some previously identified problems. For example, the Bureau has taken several steps to reduce the number of unreadable fingerprint cards of temporary workers, a problem that plagued an earlier field operation. Among other actions, the Bureau plans to digitally capture a third and fourth set of fingerprints if the first two sets cannot be read for background security checks. The Bureau has also developed new procedures for counting those living in group quarters, such as dormitories and prisons. For example, the Bureau is using a single address list containing both group quarters and housing units, rather than separate lists as in the 2000 Census, to reduce the chance of double counting. The Bureau's 2010 Census communications campaign is also more robust than the one used in the 2000 Census. Key differences from the 2000 campaign include increased partnership staffing, targeted paid advertising based on market and attitudinal research, and a contingency fund to address unexpected events. To increase participation rates, the Bureau plans to mail a second, replacement questionnaire to census tracts that had low or moderate response rates in the 2000 Census. To help ensure a complete count of areas along the Gulf Coast, the Bureau plans to hand deliver an estimated 1.2 million census forms in areas devastated by hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Ike. This effort will help ensure that households--even those that were not on the Bureau's address list but appear inhabitable--will be included in the census. Moving forward, it will be important for the Bureau to quickly identify the problems affecting key IT systems and test solutions. Further, given the complexity of the census and the likelihood that other glitches might arise, it will be important for the Bureau to stay on schedule, monitor operations, and have plans and personnel in place to quickly address operational issues.