For some historians, efforts by countries to improve their own trade position and help domestic industries at the expense of others by imposing measures that artificially increase exports or limit imports describe protectionism. Each scenario reflects a different dimension of the relationship between the economic downturn and protectionism. The scenarios are not predictions, but descriptions of how and why protectionist pressures could be manifested and transmitted under very different situations and policy responses. Under a low impact s cenario existing WTO rules and obligations, bolstered by a high level of global interdependence, keep pressures for protection under control. Proposals for protection, if implemented, have a modest impact on global trade flows. Under a medium impact scenario WTO rules prove inadequate or are disregarded due to the exigencies of the economic crisis. As a result, trade and investment flows over time could be diverted or fall outside WTO surveillance, thereby weakening the world trading system. High Impact Scenario: WTO Rules Are Violated, Major Trade Conflicts Occur, And Trading System Is Undermined

Under this scenario, WTO rules are violated or ignored and major trade conflicts occur. This threat arises from the longstanding presence of highly skewed trade balances driven by distorted global consumption and savings patterns—patterns that were an underlying cause of the global economic downturn. Given the prominent role that China and the United States play in the global imbalances, two flashpoints for any outbreak of protectionism can be identified. The first involves the possibility that some countries could be perceived as "free riders" in the international effort to increase global aggregate demand. Assuming the transition to domestic-led growth by China takes years to accomplish, a major concern is that the current account surplus countries could try to avoid massive factory closings by resorting to tariff and trade policies designed to export their overcapacity to the rest of the world. Policy Challenges for Congress

The global economic downturn is deep and broad. In this context, three broad policy challenges can be derived from the analysis presented in this report. The first deals with international coordination and surveillance of fiscal stimulus programs. The second relates to multilateral surveillance of trade pressures and barriers adopted during this crisis. The third pertains to the management of U.S. trade relations, particularly as it relates to trade with China and other current account surplus countries. This is true on a range of issues, including constituent requests for protection, facilitating the adjustment of current account surplus countries, and formulating trade liberalization priorities.
In today's severe global economic downturn, concerns are being raised that countries may try to improve their own trade positions in order to help domestic industries at the expense of others by imposing measures that artificially increase their exports or restrict imports. Such efforts are considered by some to be a form of "protectionism" and are often referred to as beggar-thy-neighbor policies.
This report develops three scenarios to approximate different dimensions of the relationship between the global economic downturn and protectionism. The scenarios are not predictions, but descriptions of how and why pressures for protection could be manifested and transmitted under different circumstances and assumptions.
Under a low impact scenario, existing World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and obligations, bolstered by a high level of global interdependence, discourage trade restrictions and trade diverting measures from being proposed. If implemented, the measures conform to WTO rules and/or have a limited impact on trade flows. Recent reports issued by the WTO and World Bank provide preliminary support for this scenario.
Under a medium impact scenario, WTO rules are violated or are disregarded due to the exigencies of the economic crisis and demands to provide financial rescue plans for the banking and auto sectors. As a result, trade and investment flows over time could be diverted or fall outside WTO surveillance, thereby weakening the global trading system.
Under a high impact scenario, WTO rules are violated, major trade conflict occurs, and the world trading system is undermined. This threat arises from the longstanding presence of large trade imbalances driven by distorted global consumption and savings patterns—patterns that were an underlying cause of the global economic downturn. Given the prominent role that China and the United States play in the global imbalances, two flashpoints for any outbreak of protectionism can be identified. The first could stem from U.S. public concerns that other countries are gaining a "free ride" in terms of international efforts to increase aggregate spending and get the world economy growing again. The second could arise if China and other surplus countries try to avoid massive factory closings and layoffs by exporting their overcapacity to the United States and Europe with trade policy measures such as export subsidies and currency depreciation.
Three broad policy challenges for Congress are derived from the analysis. The first deals with international surveillance of fiscal stimulus programs. The second relates to multilateral surveillance of trade pressures and barriers proposed and adopted during the economic crisis. The third pertains to the joint management of U.S. trade relations by Congress and the administration, particularly as it bears on responding to constituent requests for protection, facilitating the adjustment of current account surplus countries, and formulating trade liberalization priorities.