Friday, February 2, 2024 at 10:30am CT
Speaker: Geeta Persad, Assistant Professor, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin Jackson School of Geosciences
Host: Danielle Touma
Title: Anthropogenic Aerosol as a Driver of Climate Risk
Abstract: Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are expected to change rapidly over the coming decades, driving strong, spatially complex trends in temperature, hydroclimate, and extreme events both near and far from emission sources. Under-resourced, highly populated regions often bear the brunt of aerosols’ climate and air quality effects, amplifying risk through heightened exposure and vulnerability. However, many policy-facing evaluations of near-term climate risk, including those in the latest IPCC assessment report, underrepresent aerosols’ complex and regionally diverse climate effects, reducing them to a globally averaged offset to greenhouse gas (GHG) driven warming. In this talk, I and my collaborators argue that this constitutes a major missing element in society’s ability to prepare for future climate change. I will share a series of case studies across regional climate modeling, heatwave hazard quantification, and agricultural impact analysis that highlight how the standard framework developed to estimate GHG-driven near-term climate risk fails for regional aerosol emissions, creating blind spots. Finally, I outline a pathway towards progress and call for greater interaction between the aerosol research, impact modeling, scenario development, and risk assessment communities.