Crystal balls are hard to come by in regional economics. One of the few is delivered by state labor economists, with their annual outlook for occupations for the next decade. The latest version was recently released by the Washington Employment Security Department (ESD) and contains much food for thought about the state and regional economies.
This column focuses on an outlook a little more near-term than 2031, in particular a labor market forecast through 2026. Among the different measures, the one I find most interesting is “annual average openings.”
The takeaway for the greater Tri Cities: Among the predicted top 50 occupations by openings, not an engineering discipline is to be found.
For a community of scientists and engineers, this may be surprising. In fact, the first engineering specialty to appear in the openings list of over 800 different occupations is mechanical, at No. 95. Environmental engineers place 98th. Civil, electrical and nuclear engineers aren’t too far behind, at the 108th-110th ranks.
At the top of the forecast openings list are fast-food workers, with agricultural labor not too far behind. Rounding out the forecasted top five openings by occupations: retail sales workers, home health aides and servers.
In fact, among the top 25 forecasted openings by occupations for the two counties, only four require some post-secondary education (rank): teaching assistants (12th), elementary school teachers (18th), nursing assistants (20th) and nurses (21st).
Openings can be traced to three sources: economic growth, exits from a given occupation and retirements.
Of the three, growth is typically the smallest.
Exits and retirements are much larger, generally reflecting the dynamism in U.S. labor markets. Exits are particularly high in jobs requiring little formal preparation, such as in retail and the hospitality trades.
Retirements have become an increasingly powerful factor in all occupations as baby boomers decide that they have worked long enough. (Or their employers make that decision.)
Economies don’t change too quickly, however, so the forecast through 2026 largely reflects the present. How do we know? Every year, the ESD surveys the current distribution of occupations.
For 2023, the five largest occupations in the greater Tri-Cities, in order, are: home health aides, fast-food workers, retail salespeople, cashiers and nurses. In other words, a list that at the top is not too different from the forecast through 2026.
The distribution of openings by occupations isn’t the same as the distribution by sectors. For example, computer science jobs are now ubiquitous in many sectors. Yet, many occupations are specific to a sector. A sectoral look at the Tri-Cities economy is given in the accompanying chart, denominated by jobs.
Over the past near two decades, the share of the workforce taken up by health care has grown dramatically while agriculture’s share has shrunk.
In other words, while economies change slowly, they do change.
Courtesy Benton Franklin-Trends
One can also see this by implied annual growth rates of openings by occupations projected by ESD. Among the 25 largest in 2026, the five projected occupations with highest growth rate of openings are: cooks, hairdressers, fast food workers, servers and home health aides. These all show annual growth rates in the 3% to 4% range.
The projected five with the lowest rate of openings are: farmworkers, electricians, bookkeepers, retail workers and office workers. These show annual growth rates in the low 1% range, with farmworkers expected to decline. The overall average was 1.65%.
You may be wondering: What about those occupations that require post-secondary training?
Of the four in the top 25 by openings, all showed growth rates greater than the overall average, with nursing assistants the fastest-growing. In the second tranche of 25 top-ranked openings, an additional four occupations appear: software developers, “other” post-secondary instructors, “other” counselors and accountants. All show projected openings growing faster than the overall average, except accountants. In fact, the projected growth rate of openings for software developers in the greater Tri-Cities is the highest among all the top 50, at 4.6% per year.
There is a further wrinkle to imagining the workforce of the future. Simply because an occupation doesn’t land high in the rankings of openings doesn’t mean that there is little worry over the adequacy of local education efforts to provide those occupations. Very often supply doesn’t cover demand.
Consider the occupations which typically require a four-year degree in annual openings at the 51st-100th places in the two counties over the next few years.
Ranked by annual openings, these are: general secondary school teachers (92), “other” psychologists (72), human resource specialists (58), middle school teachers (58), market research analysts (45), mechanical engineers (45), environmental engineers (43) and kindergarten teachers (43).
When similar lists of openings are assembled for the other Eastern Washington metro areas, then combined and compared to the “degree production” at Eastern Washington institutions of higher education, my research shows a yawning gap exists between most occupations and degrees granted.
Of course, talent can be imported, as it often has been. But is that the primary way this community wants to address its future workforce demands?
D. Patrick Jones is the executive director for Eastern Washington University’s Institute for Public Policy & Economic Analysis. Benton-Franklin Trends, the institute’s project, uses local, state and federal data to measure the local economic, educational and civic life of Benton and Franklin counties.