With June’s end, the year is halfway over (but it certainly seems longer!) and so now it’s time to reflect again on 10 things we’ve learned from Brookings scholars’ research over the past month.
1. Labor productivity growth has slowed over past half century, everywhere
Emily Moss, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh examine “explanations for the slowdown in productivity growth as well as public policies that can help restore it.” “Growth in productivity,” the authors write, “has generally slowed over the past half century.” The slowdown of labor productivity is not just common in the U.S., but across all major advanced economies. “Improving living standards in the long run,” they note, “largely depends on improving labor productivity.”
2. China developing capabilities for military missions in Indian Ocean region
In his paper for the Global China Initiative, Joshua White writes that “although China’s ultimate aims in the Indian Ocean remain somewhat ambiguous, it is clear that the Chinese leadership is actively pursuing capabilities” to enable it to pursue military missions in the region. White argues that despite some skepticism about China’s capabilities, “there are indeed investments that could foreshadow China’s intention and capability to be able to operate high-end military missions of the kind that would be perceived as threatening to U.S. and Indian interests.”
3. A “playbook” approach to safely reopening the economy
Mark Muro observes that “in the absence of a national roadmap” for reopening the economy following the initial coronavirus shutdowns, “governors, regional leaders, and business owners are scrambling” for guidance. While there has been a lot of consensus on the public health side of reopening guidance, on the business operations side there has not been much. Thus, states, localities, and businesses are finding their own ways forward. Muro argues that “the best of the sub-national playbooks are highly reassuring, and represent the best of America’s knack for decentralized problem-solving.”
4. Juneteenth: A rallying cry for reparations
“For many,” Rashawn Ray notes, “Black bondage has been continuously repacked with different wrapper like a company that has scandals and changes its name.” Although Juneteenth marks the day in 1865 when enslaved Black Americans finally learned of their freedom, new forms of subjugation and wealth-denying policies followed slavery’s end. Ray argues that “as we celebrate Juneteenth, we have a lot or work to do as a nation to make up for Black plight since 1619.”
5. Civic education in 21st century schools is essential for the nation
Rebecca Winthrop writes that “as one of the few social institutions present in virtually every community across America, schools can and should play an important role in catalyzing increased civic engagement.” Participation in civic life, she says, is essential for the survival of our nation. Winthrop argues that “uniting the powerful push for 21st-century skills with the less well-resourced but equally important movement for civic learning could prove to be an important strategy for helping schools.”
6. Government needs to define THE frontline worFORCE
Adie Tomer and Joseph Kane explain that “as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, America’s frontline workers are still valiantly reporting to their jobsites and risking their personal health,” but there is no agreement on who, exactly, they are. A formal definition is needed. Tomer and Kane argue that “creating formal definitions of frontline workers and the essential industries in which they work is an important, technical step to adopt policies that target the most vulnerable workers.”
7. Transatlantic cooperation on AI has significant opportunities
Joshua Meltzer, Cameron Kerry, and Alex Engler address “the significance of international cooperation as a vehicle for realizing the ambitious goals in the key areas of AI (artificial intelligence) innovation and regulation” described in a recent European Union white paper on artificial intelligence. In their paper, the authors outline the importance of transatlantic cooperation on AI and identify three broad areas for cooperation.
8. Despair’s role in the opioid crisis
Carol Graham describes “the new metrics for understanding and addressing the role of despair in the opioid crisis.” Less-than-college-educated white people, in particular, are most vulnerable to deaths of despair, including from opioid overdose. But the federal policy approach has focused on saving addicts from overdosing by increasing the supply of “antagonist” medications, rather than also addressing the root causes, as well as supply and demand issues. In this paper, Graham examines the root causes of this ill-being, and argues that to be successful policy interventions “must help address the underlying causes of despair, such as lack of employment, sense of purpose, and hope for the future.”
9. COVID-19’s baby bust
Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine explain how “the COVID-19 episode will likely lead to a large, lasting baby bust,” contrary to popular belief. Based on recent and historical data from economic downturns and the experience of the 1918 flu pandemic, people have fewer children in uncertain economic times. For example, these economists note that a one percentage point increase in unemployment reduces the birth rate by 1.4 percent. Kearney and Levine conclude that the COVID-19 crisis “is leading to tremendous economic loss, uncertainty, and insecurity. That is why birth rates will tumble.”
10. Fossil fuels are hard to quit
In her new Foreign Policy essay, Samantha Gross explains that “We haven’t found a good substitute for oil, in terms of its availability and fitness for purpose.” One factor is that oil simply produces more energy per unit of weight, far more than batteries, solar, wind, and other sources. Gross explains the history of the development of fuel sources over the preceding centuries that have resulted in our dependence on fossil fuels. She recommends policies that will help electrify sectors most amenable to it.