• 2013年全国地貌与第四纪学术研讨会专栏 •

### 1955-2010年松花江流域不同区段径流量变化影响因素定量评估

1. 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, 北京100101;
2. 中国科学院大学, 北京100049
• 收稿日期:2013-10-01 修回日期:2013-12-01 出版日期:2014-01-25 发布日期:2014-01-22
• 通讯作者: 王随继（1966-），甘肃静宁人，副研究员，主要从事河流地貌学与河流沉积学研究，E-mail：wangsj@igsnrr.ac.cn。
• 作者简介:王彦君（1989- ），女，河北邢台人，硕士生，主要研究方向为河流水文学、河流地貌学，E-mail：wangyj.11s@igsnrr.ac.cn。
• 基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（41271027）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973 计划）项目（2010CB428404）。

### Quantification of impacts of precipitation and human activities on runoff changes in different sections of Songhua River during 1955-2010

WANG Yanjun1,2, WANG Suiji1, Su Teng1,2

1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
• Received:2013-10-01 Revised:2013-12-01 Online:2014-01-25 Published:2014-01-22

Abstract: The surface runoff of some rivers in the world has decreased significantly with global or regional climate changes and increasing human activities, which has caused severe eco-environmental problems. The Songhua River is a large river in Asia and its basin is an important bread basket in China. The runoff of the whole river basin and in different sections has experienced dramatic changes over the last few decades. It is necessary to study the trend of the runoff changes and quantify the influencing factors on the changes. Based on annual runoff data at 4 gauging stations in the mainstream of the river and annual precipitation data from 61 meteorological stations in and around the river basin during 1955-2010, a decreasing trend of annual runoff and precipitation for four sections (above Jiangqiao, Jiangqiao-Dalai, Dalai-Haerbin and Haerbin-Jiamusi) was revealed using the linear trend method. The cumulative anomaly was employed to detect the abrupt changes of each runoff series. Three inflexion years for the runoff incremental changes were detected and they divided the entire period into four parts: above Jiangqiao (1963, 1982 and 1998), Jiangqiao-Dalai (1962, 1985 and 1998), Haerbin-Jiamusi (1966, 1980 and 1998), and only one turning year (1988) was found in Dalai-Haerbin section. The first period (T1) is regarded as the baseline period; the others are measurement periods. Without considering the effect of evapotranspiration, the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) was adopted to estimate the impacts of precipitation and human activities on runoff changes for the sections. In above Jiangqiao (T2: 1964-1982, T3: 1983-1998), Jiangqiao-Dalai (T2: 1963-1985, T3: 1986-1998) and Haerbin-Jiamusi (T2: 1967-1980, T3: 1981-1998) sections, the impacts of human activities on runoff incremental decrease were 71%~88%, 94%~97% and 72%~85%, respectively, while those of precipitation were 12%~29%, 3%~6% and 15%~28%, respectively, for the measurement periods of T2, T3 and T4 (1999-2010) compared with T1. In the measurement period (1989-2010), the impact of human activities on runoff changes in Dalai-Haerbin section was 75%, while that of precipitation was 25%. Obviously, the human activities were the most important factor causing runoff yield reduction in the later three periods for different sections of this study area. In addition, the impacts of human activities on runoff yield changes reached the maximum in the 1980s and 1990s. Although the runoff yield for different sections showed different variation characteristics, the reduction is mainly due to population increase and construction of water conservation projects.

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