### Author Topic: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?  (Read 180678 times)

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#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3075 on: January 28, 2019, 11:17:42 am »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.
If you use electricity to generate hydrogen it's always going to be much less efficient than a BEV by orders of magnitude. So if you use the same electricity to charge batteries and generate hydrogen BEVs are going to be a much cleaner option.
Efficiency is just a small part of the equation so don't get too focussed on that alone because you'll lose sight on the big picture. In the end it is all about cost and convenience.
If the goal is to reduce GHG emissions and other pollution then the car that uses less electricity (assuming it is generated in the same way) is going to the best option.
Not if the costs are too high. It is clear that hydrogen will need a much less fine grained 'energy distribition infrastructure' compared to EVs.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3076 on: January 28, 2019, 12:08:38 pm »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.

Dude that’s a hydrogen fueling satiation with solar panels on the roof.  An6 dope can see that.  The solar panels produce electricity which is sent to the grid and cars and buses can get hydrogen for hydrogen powered vehicles.

Help us out here...... where does it say in the picture, on the web site or in the blog where the hydrogen comes from?  IT DOESN’T.  You have NOT proved anything.  You do realize that less than 10 miles away is a Cheveron refinery where they have lots of hydrogen gas from the refining of crude oil.

You know if you would do you homework a much better you would find the company that built and operates that Hydrogen fueling station states the hydrogen fuel comes from fossil fuels.

Yes my friend the web site clearly states the hydrogen used to fuel hydrogen vehicles is coming from FOSSIL FUELS and specifically NATURAL GAS.

“Today, hydrogen is mainly produced by steam reforming fossil fuels such as natural gas. Excess hydrogen is also recovered as a by-product from various industrial processes. Even though hydrogen generated from fossil feedstocks has the advantage of zero-tailpipe emissions, the production chain still leaves a carbon footprint. Well-to-wheel emissions of a hydrogen fuel-cell car are nonetheless approximately 30% lower than those of a conventional diesel-powered car.

Building on these conventional hydrogen production techniques and Linde’s experience of more than 100 years of H2 production, we are actively developing technologies to ultimately increase the share of renewably produced hydrogen.”

JEEZE MAN DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE POSTING SO YOU CAN BE TRUSTED.  You are like that dude posting a bunch of marketing hype BS on biofuels.

Now to be fair to you, there is only one experimental hydrogen electrolysis refueling station and that is is in Germany.  But you didn’t mention that one, so I will for you.  But it is experimental so don’t expect to get your hydrogen powered car filled there.

#### coppice

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3077 on: January 28, 2019, 12:13:20 pm »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.
There are only a couple of functioning hydrogen filling points in the UK, but those do claim to produce the hydrogen on site by electrolysis. They seem to produce it ahead of time, and have it stored ready when a car draws up. They couldn't cope with rapid flow of cars - not that they would need to in the near future. The mainland filling points I have found information on all appear to produce the hydrogen off site, and store it at the filling station. So, they could be producing it by any means.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3078 on: January 28, 2019, 12:22:03 pm »
JEEZE MAN DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE POSTING SO YOU CAN BE TRUSTED.  You are like that dude posting a bunch of marketing hype BS on biofuels.
No, do your own homework!  And I'm the one who is very optimistic about bio-fuels as well so have your memory checked or make notes.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### coppice

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3079 on: January 28, 2019, 12:35:57 pm »
Yes my friend the web site clearly states the hydrogen used to fuel hydrogen vehicles is coming from FOSSIL FUELS and specifically NATURAL GAS.
Actually, h2stationmaps.com does talk about solar panels and electrolysers being used to supplement the delivered hydrogen from fossil fuels. However, it seems to just be window dressing - they have an obstacle right in front of their solar panels.

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3080 on: January 28, 2019, 12:42:17 pm »
JEEZE MAN DO YOUR HOMEWORK BEFORE POSTING SO YOU CAN BE TRUSTED.  You are like that dude posting a bunch of marketing hype BS on biofuels.
No, do your own homework!  And I'm the one who is very optimistic about bio-fuels as well so have your memory checked or make notes.

I was trying to be nice and polite.  But since you brought it up one has to ask, why do you make posts which turn out to be misleading, false and are just plane old bullshit?  Not trying to be mean here but didn’t you learn critical thinking skills in school?  I sure as shit did and while I am not perfect it sure helps in detecting when things just don’t sound right as in all of those posts about fuel from biogasses.  Or in this case why a gas company would produce hydrogen from electrolysis which is vey expensive when from over 100 years they been buying it from the refineries.  Didn’t you watch thre video on the “Truth About Hydrogen Cars”?  Watch the video and lean something.  You might want to re-read that marketing hype on biogases before making another post.  As we discovered the company you said was making biofuels really only made a more efficient silage collection system.  Let’s not get duped again which false and inaccurate information.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3081 on: January 28, 2019, 12:44:25 pm »
Sorry Doug but your memory is so bad that it makes it impossible to have a normal discussion with you. You keep misreading and misunderstanding.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### ahbushnell

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3082 on: January 28, 2019, 03:34:31 pm »
Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used.

I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen.  Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it?

You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web.

Nice model.  Look at the depth of focus.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3083 on: January 28, 2019, 03:51:01 pm »
The depth of the focus is just a matter of using the right lense. Many photographers do that so have a sharp image of the object of interest and keep the rest blurry.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3084 on: January 28, 2019, 04:58:17 pm »
Sorry Doug but your memory is so bad that it makes it impossible to have a normal discussion with you. You keep misreading and misunderstanding.

You are right if you choose to lie and deceive we can't have an intelligent conversation.  It is you that chooses to lie and deceive with biofuels and now with hydrogen fuel.  The following is from the hydrogen fueling companies web site.  Where does the company say hydrogen gas is mainly coming from?  Hmmm, that's just what I said and what was in the video.  It's right on the company's we site where you got the picture from.  Try reading it and then call me a liar.

“Today, hydrogen is mainly produced by steam reforming fossil fuels such as natural gas. Excess hydrogen is also recovered as a by-product from various industrial processes. Even though hydrogen generated from fossil feedstocks has the advantage of zero-tailpipe emissions, the production chain still leaves a carbon footprint. Well-to-wheel emissions of a hydrogen fuel-cell car are nonetheless approximately 30% lower than those of a conventional diesel-powered car.

Building on these conventional hydrogen production techniques and Linde’s experience of more than 100 years of H2 production, we are actively developing technologies to ultimately increase the share of renewably produced hydrogen.”

You know there's what you believe to be true and can't communicate. And then there is science and language which is the truth everyone can share in and communicate with.  You might want to work on improving both your language and science skills.  Folks here in the form have been trying to help you with both, but for some reason you just haven't improved.

#### fsr

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3085 on: January 28, 2019, 05:00:36 pm »
According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is $4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be$34161. A difference of $29529. So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course. You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure. Sure the Mirai is more expensive right now. It isn't a production car like the Tesla. The same goes for hydrogen. The development of hydrogen is behind compared to pure EVs so right now everything is more expensive. Currently it is very hard to make an accurate estimation on what will be cheaper in a few years taking all costs into account. I've read an old report from 2014 which claims that the infrastructure for hydrogen will be 4 times cheaper than the infrastructure needed to charge EVs. But it is hard to tell how valid that number is in today's situation. At 8 years of battery warranty, and 10 years of expected use until you really need to change them, i assume that most people will change cars by that time. Either battery, or hydrogen based. I don't see how the hydrogen infrastructure could be cheaper, considering that you need additional steps over the process to charge an BEV, and the steps have lower efficiency, so they need to use more energy to give you a determined amount of kWh: Battery vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/charger -> car Hydrogen vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/electrolyzer -> compressor -> car And that's with a station that does the electrolysis on-site, so that there is no hydrogen transport involved. I don't know how many of them are out there, but at least the YT video seems to have used one of those to do the maths. #### nctnico • Super Contributor • Posts: 18342 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3086 on: January 28, 2019, 05:10:29 pm » If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower. At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency. « Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 05:12:20 pm by nctnico » There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope. #### DougSpindler • Super Contributor • Posts: 1157 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3087 on: January 28, 2019, 05:15:32 pm » Perhaps you should google a bit better. Some hydrogen fueling stations use electricity to generate hydrogen. So they use the same electricity as an EV. And even with hydrogen made from fossil fuels the CO2 footprint is lower due to higher efficiency. The latter may ofcourse change when more bio-fuel is used. I have done just as you say and can NOT find one fueling station using electrolysis to generate hydrogen. Since you seem to know of one why didn't you post it? You know you would have a lot more credibility with people if you make a claim, you support it with factual evidence instead of telling someone to find it on the web. Nice model. Look at the depth of focus. Little does our friend nctnico know but I live not more than 15 minutes from where this picture was taken. It is the bus yard for the city buses in Emeryville which is right by Pixar. There are actually two banks of solar panels. It's funny that they did not include the other bank of solar panels it's just off to the left unless they were trying to not show something. Just a slightly wider camera angle would have showed the other fueling station. But maybe they didn't show it because it's just for busses and they are focusing on car refueling. What I don't get is why nctnico keep posting lies and misleading information. Just looked on a map and the Chevron refinery where the hydrogen gas is produced is just 9 miles away. Here we provide nctnico with the evidence that he's mistaken and he doesn't accept it. I just don't get people like that. #### DougSpindler • Super Contributor • Posts: 1157 • Country: ##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream? « Reply #3088 on: January 28, 2019, 05:25:36 pm » According to the video i posted, the electricity cost per km for a tesla model 3 is 2 to 2.4 cents, while they hydrogen cost per km for the toyota mirai is 17.7 cents. The tesla model 3 long-range comes with a battery warranty of 8 years or 120000 miles (193000 km), so, for that many miles, the electricity cost is$4632 (at 2.4 cents/km), while the hydrogen cost would be $34161. A difference of$29529.

So, about cost, that doesn't looks good for the mirai. But the mirai has the convenience of a fast fillup. If there where enough stations for the trip, of course.
You are not factoring in the costs of the wear on the battery and a large scale charging infrastructure. Sure the Mirai is more expensive right now. It isn't a production car like the Tesla. The same goes for hydrogen. The development of hydrogen is behind compared to pure EVs so right now everything is more expensive. Currently it is very hard to make an accurate estimation on what will be cheaper in a few years taking all costs into account. I've read an old report from 2014 which claims that the infrastructure for hydrogen will be 4 times cheaper than the infrastructure needed to charge EVs. But it is hard to tell how valid that number is in today's situation.
At 8 years of battery warranty, and 10 years of expected use until you really need to change them, i assume that most people will change cars by that time. Either battery, or hydrogen based.

I don't see how the hydrogen infrastructure could be cheaper, considering that you need additional steps over the process to charge an BEV, and the steps have lower efficiency, so they need to use more energy to give you a determined amount of kWh:

Battery vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/charger -> car
Hydrogen vehicle: mains voltage -> rectifier/electrolyzer -> compressor -> car

And that's with a station that does the electrolysis on-site, so that there is no hydrogen transport involved. I don't know how many of them are out there, but at least the YT video seems to have used one of those to do the maths.

There is only one experimental station using electrolysis to produce hydrogen which is located in Germany.  As is stated in the video it's impossible for it to be cheaper with the technology we have.  Hydrogen from fossil fuels is just too costly.

#### fsr

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3089 on: January 28, 2019, 08:59:07 pm »
If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
But hydrogen stations need more electricity per kWh-equivalent on the cars, so the grid will need to be upgraded anyways. I suppose that you could use huge tanks on the stations and constantly produce hydrogen, for it to act as a buffer, so that during peak demand you don't need a ridiculous amount of energy. On average, the power needed will be higher, however.
That is, when hydrogen stations are made that use 100% electrolysis-produced hydrogen. Otherwise, they're not zero-emissions.
Both the hydrogen and battery cars do require green energy production to be zero-emissions, but the hydrogen also needs to be 100% made from electrolysis.

#### apis

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3090 on: January 28, 2019, 09:11:48 pm »
It's not like the infrastructure for hydrogen is going to be cheap either. I can't imagine it will be anything but orders of magnitude more expensive with hydrogen generators, compressors, cooling, hydrogen pipelines, high pressure tanks, refueling stations, hydrogen shipping with trucks/trains/boats, specialist workers, etc. Compare all that with chargers for BEVs. On top of that you have to drive extra just to refuel a hydrogen car, while a BEV can be recharged while it's parked.

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3091 on: January 28, 2019, 09:37:08 pm »
If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
But hydrogen stations need more electricity per kWh-equivalent on the cars, so the grid will need to be upgraded anyways. I suppose that you could use huge tanks on the stations and constantly produce hydrogen, for it to act as a buffer, so that during peak demand you don't need a ridiculous amount of energy. On average, the power needed will be higher, however.
That is, when hydrogen stations are made that use 100% electrolysis-produced hydrogen. Otherwise, they're not zero-emissions.
Both the hydrogen and battery cars do require green energy production to be zero-emissions, but the hydrogen also needs to be 100% made from electrolysis.
The way I see it hydrogen makes most sense when it is made at a source like wind or solar (think wind turbines far off-shore and solar in countries with a lot of sun). Converting the electricity to hydrogen will be cheaper because you can use ships to transport the hydrogen. Compare it with oil. A lot of oil is transported using ships because pipelines are too expensive to cover the distance. I'm still sure all this will be cheaper compared to implementing a large electricity grid and storage in batteries (let alone the distribution grid to all the chargers and the chargers themselves). Think about Australia for example. They have a massive amount of space for solar but no way to transport large quantities of electricity outside the country. When converted to hydrogen they can export the energy world wide. The same goes for many countries in the middle east.

Until then some kind of transition needs to be made because the renewable sources are not going to be installed over night. Ultimately some business model needs to emerge for a company to invest in a large scale solar or wind power hydrogen generation plant. That will only happen if there is a large enough demand. Right now hydrogen might be less efficient than using electricity to power an EV directly but to me the economic advantages of hydrogen in the long run are clearly there. EVs and grid storage batteries are a dead end IMHO. It just doesn't scale.

And even then it is not a given hydrogen will ever be used to power cars on a large scale. In my opinion bio-fuels hold the best cards at the moment because the process in itself is very low-tech. Even for the third generation bio-fuels (which comes down to brewing beer from plant leftovers and distilling it). Bio-fuels also don't require the consumers to invest in new technology (=buy a new car) so the threshold for adoption is extremely low. Currently the Duth government is pushing gas stations to make blends with higher amounts of ethanol available at every gas station. Once implemented it will push the CO2 emissions down immediately. No tax incentive for EVs or hydrogen will be as effective to reduce CO2 emissions quickly.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2019, 09:52:30 pm by nctnico »
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3092 on: January 28, 2019, 10:21:04 pm »
If you want to use EVs on a mass scale without batteries which can be fully charged with 500km of range within 5 minutes you'll need lots of charging points. In the Netherlands it is estimated that there has to be 1 charging point for every 2.5 cars for EVs to be useful. That means that the entire electricity distribution system will need to be replaced (upgraded) BESIDES paying for all the chargers. With hydrogen the current distribution grid of gas stations will suffice and many more people can share the infrastructure so the cost per person will be lower.

At some point there is an optimum for cost and efficiency. That point won't be at the maximum efficiency so don't look primarily at the efficiency.
But hydrogen stations need more electricity per kWh-equivalent on the cars, so the grid will need to be upgraded anyways. I suppose that you could use huge tanks on the stations and constantly produce hydrogen, for it to act as a buffer, so that during peak demand you don't need a ridiculous amount of energy. On average, the power needed will be higher, however.
That is, when hydrogen stations are made that use 100% electrolysis-produced hydrogen. Otherwise, they're not zero-emissions.
Both the hydrogen and battery cars do require green energy production to be zero-emissions, but the hydrogen also needs to be 100% made from electrolysis.
The way I see it hydrogen makes most sense when it is made at a source like wind or solar (think wind turbines far off-shore and solar in countries with a lot of sun). Converting the electricity to hydrogen will be cheaper because you can use ships to transport the hydrogen. Compare it with oil. A lot of oil is transported using ships because pipelines are too expensive to cover the distance. I'm still sure all this will be cheaper compared to implementing a large electricity grid and storage in batteries (let alone the distribution grid to all the chargers and the chargers themselves). Think about Australia for example. They have a massive amount of space for solar but no way to transport large quantities of electricity outside the country. When converted to hydrogen they can export the energy world wide. The same goes for many countries in the middle east.

Until then some kind of transition needs to be made because the renewable sources are not going to be installed over night. Ultimately some business model needs to emerge for a company to invest in a large scale solar or wind power hydrogen generation plant. That will only happen if there is a large enough demand. Right now hydrogen might be less efficient than using electricity to power an EV directly but to me the economic advantages of hydrogen in the long run are clearly there. EVs and grid storage batteries are a dead end IMHO. It just doesn't scale.

And even then it is not a given hydrogen will ever be used to power cars on a large scale. In my opinion bio-fuels hold the best cards at the moment because the process in itself is very low-tech. Even for the third generation bio-fuels (which comes down to brewing beer from plant leftovers and distilling it). Bio-fuels also don't require the consumers to invest in new technology (=buy a new car) so the threshold for adoption is extremely low. Currently the Duth government is pushing gas stations to make blends with higher amounts of ethanol available at every gas station. Once implemented it will push the CO2 emissions down immediately. No tax incentive for EVs or hydrogen will be as effective to reduce CO2 emissions quickly.

Yes that is what you believe....  And then there is science and the laws of physics.  Just as there are people who believe in free energy and perpetual motion machines that doesn't mean they will work or that someone can ever get them to work.  That's why we have science to get the truth of all of these beliefs.  In theory we could cover all of Australia with solar panels and have the solar panels produce hydrogen through electrolysis.  But you do realize you would be creating another ecological disaster with all of that oxygen that's going to be produced.  Australia and California are both having problems with massive wild fires, and you want to increase the oxygen level of our atmosphere?  Not really a well thought out plan.  If  you watched and more importantly understood what was said in the video about producing oxygen through electrolysis you would need to consume more hydrogen than is produced to compress, chill and transport the hydrogen from Australia than the amount of hydrogen that would be produced.

And you really think the middle east which is "rich" in oil and already has hydrogen from fossil fuels would buy the more expensive hydrogen from Australia?

Not saying you don't have interesting ideas, they are.  But if you had taken and passed a high school chemistry and physics class you understand why what you are proposing just isn't practical and is a silly as perpetual motion machines and free energy.

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#### apis

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3093 on: January 29, 2019, 10:47:36 pm »
I found this interesting bit of information published last year by the international energy agency: Strong policy and falling battery costs drive another record year for electric cars. Unfortunately the actual report requires signup.

"Looking forward, supportive policies and cost reductions are likely to lead to continued significant growth in the EV market. In the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which takes into account current and planned policies, the number of electric cars is projected to reach 125 million units by 2030. Should policy ambitions rise even further to meet climate goals and other sustainability targets, as in the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of electric cars on the road could be as high as 220 million in 2030."

Couldn't find any exact numbers of the total number of cars, but google indicates a bit over 1 billion, so 125 million would be about 10% of all cars (and I assume a much higher percentage of new cars).

If one compare that to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles they have a lot of catching up to do. Currently there are only 3 hydrogen refueling stations here in Sweden.

Also couldn't help but notice that the IAE writes that the world needs more nuclear energy if we are going to meet the "Sustainable Development Scenario, a pathway to reach the Paris Agreement well below 2°C climate goal, deliver universal energy access and significantly lower air pollution."
https://www.iea.org/tcep/power/nuclear/

While EV adaptation are going great the big picture isn't quite as bright:
https://www.iea.org/tcep/
« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 12:25:49 am by apis »

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3094 on: January 30, 2019, 09:07:59 am »
"Looking forward, supportive policies and cost reductions are likely to lead to continued significant growth in the EV market. In the IEA’s New Policies Scenario, which takes into account current and planned policies, the number of electric cars is projected to reach 125 million units by 2030. Should policy ambitions rise even further to meet climate goals and other sustainability targets, as in the EV30@30 Scenario, the number of electric cars on the road could be as high as 220 million in 2030."
That seems too little too late to me. The CO2 reduction required by the Paris agreement calls for a much bigger reduction in CO2 emissions. Replacing 10% of the cars isn't going to make much of a difference.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### apis

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3095 on: January 30, 2019, 03:57:27 pm »
EVs is only one of many ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The iea tracks several different sectors:

https://www.iea.org/tcep/

#### DougSpindler

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3096 on: February 01, 2019, 05:37:55 am »
Here's a twist on autonomous self-driving cars no one has discussed so far.  I was at a cybersecurity conference today in San Francisco toady.  One of the presenters was speaking on data privacy and personal data privacy.  One of the questions he asked the audience what is the "push" to get autonomous self-driving cars to market.  (Never saw this one coming.)  The reason Google, Waymo, Apple and the venture capitalists want to see autonomous self-driving cars on the road is to collect personal data on the passengers and be able to market to them while in the car.  Just think of the gold mine of data the companies can collect on the passengers.

Just think of the profits companies like Google and Facebook selling your personal data and your meta data.  It only takes a few hundred of your "Like" clicks to have a Big Data profile on you.  Advertisers are willing to pay a premium for that information.

#### coppice

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3097 on: February 01, 2019, 09:32:29 am »
Here's a twist on autonomous self-driving cars no one has discussed so far.  I was at a cybersecurity conference today in San Francisco toady.  One of the presenters was speaking on data privacy and personal data privacy.  One of the questions he asked the audience what is the "push" to get autonomous self-driving cars to market.  (Never saw this one coming.)  The reason Google, Waymo, Apple and the venture capitalists want to see autonomous self-driving cars on the road is to collect personal data on the passengers and be able to market to them while in the car.  Just think of the gold mine of data the companies can collect on the passengers.

Just think of the profits companies like Google and Facebook selling your personal data and your meta data.  It only takes a few hundred of your "Like" clicks to have a Big Data profile on you.  Advertisers are willing to pay a premium for that information.
This was said from the very beginning of autonomous car development. Something like "why waste hours driving, when you could spend that time using the internet and looking at our sites".

#### nctnico

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3098 on: February 01, 2019, 09:40:38 am »
People are already wary of this and I highly doubt this idea is going to 'fly'.
There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

#### coppice

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##### Re: When Will Electric Cars Become Mainstream?
« Reply #3099 on: February 03, 2019, 11:23:04 am »
Interesting video of journalists observing WayMo cars in Chandler, Arizona

Smf
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