Will Blair Announce Major Troop Withdrawal From Iraq?; Iran Tests Waters in Persian Gulf
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Thanks very much, Lou. Happening now, he's been President Bush's closest ally in Iraq, but has Britain's Tony Blair had enough? There's word tonight he's about to announce a major troop withdrawal from Iraq as the U.S. sends more troops in. From war games to war, Iran tests the waters in the Persian Gulf. Is it also testing America's military might? And let's call it the Hollywood primary, the stars turning out for rising political star Barack Obama. He's battling Hillary Clinton for the entertainment dollars. I'm Wolf Blitzer. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM. He stood by President Bush from the very start of the war in Iraq. But even as the Bush administration boosts the U.S. troop presence there, there's word tonight that British Prime Minister Tony Blair is about to order a major pull-out. Will President Bush soon be standing alone? Our Suzanne Malveaux is standing by over at the White House, but let's go to number 10 Downing Street in London for the latest from Robin Oakley. Robin, tell us what we expect to hear from the British prime minister tomorrow.</s>ROBIN OAKLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: What we expect, Wolf, widely reported in the British media from unnamed government officials is that Tony Blair will say 1,500 British troops due to rotate out of their duty in April will not be replaced. They'll be pulled back to barracks initially to see how the situation goes, but the aim is to get 3,000 of the 7,000 British troops in Iraq out by the end of the year, Wolf.</s>BLITZER: This is a major decision on the part of the British. They presumably could have sent those troops to where they're badly needed, for example in the al Anbar Province or in Baghdad itself where the U.S. is sending another 20,000 or so troops. Why are they simply leaving and almost half of their troop presence will be out of there by the end of the year?</s>OAKLEY: It was never on politically, Wolf. This is a prime minister who is being forced out of office early because of his policies on Iraq. A prime minister under massive pressure to get reductions in the British troop levels in Iraq as early as possible. We have had hints from Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, over recent weeks it was going to happen. It's happened a little bit earlier than we'd expected. Possibly because this week the opinion polls here in Britain have given Tony Blair's new Labour government the worst rating that they've had in the nearly 10 years they have been in office -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: Robin Oakley on the scene for us in London. We'll stand by for the prime minister's remarks tomorrow before the parliament in London. Suzanne Malveaux is over at the White House. Suzanne, this must be a stinging rebuke over at the White House, a major disappointment.</s>SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well you know the White House is really trying to paint this as a success story. This is a plan, Wolf. That would involve consolidating bases in Basra, handing some of those over to Iraqi authorities, also reducing battle groups from six to five during the next troop rotation in May. What this means essentially is reducing British troops by 7,200 deployed to 5,500, but also keeping a substantial force in Iraq. That is that they're not going to withdrawal British troops from southern Iraq, and that they're also going to maintain the same current combat capability. All of this taken together presented to President Bush by British Prime Minister Tony Blair, part of this plan that the two discussed early this morning. The White House saying that this is simply a success, a sign that things are working in Basra. I spoke with Gordon Johndroe, NSC spokesperson who put it this way, saying the president is grateful for the support of the British forces in the past and into the future, while the United Kingdom is maintaining a robust force in southern Iraq, we're pleased that conditions in Basra have improved sufficiently that they are able to transition more control to the Iraqis. The United States shares the same goal of turning responsibility over to the Iraqi security forces and reducing the number of American troops in Iraq. Now I pressed Gordon Johndroe on that. Does it cripple the U.S. mission to go after al Qaeda as well as the insurgents? He says no. He thinks that 5,500 is certainly a robust presence, but Wolf it really does beg the question here, a lot of pressure on President Bush now. What does this mean for American troops? When do they get to come home? Gordon Johndroe and other U.S. officials saying look, it all demands on the conditions on the ground, not in Basra, but in Baghdad -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: The White House clearly trying to put their best face forward on what clearly is a difficult situation. Thanks Suzanne very much. So what does this mean for President Bush and the war in Iraq? I asked David Gergen, a former adviser to both Republican and Democratic presidents.</s>DAVID GERGEN, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER: That sound we're hearing is the cracking of the alliance. It means that Britain is starting to go its own way now and will leave President Bush more isolated. It will increase the pressure on President Bush here in the United States to begin pulling back American troops, too, sooner rather than later. It underscores how much the politics back home is beginning to affect decisions with regard to troop deployment on the ground in Iraq.</s>BLITZER: Tony Blair has been such a staunch friend and ally of President Bush, but I take it even that friendship and that alliance is not able to withstand the domestic uproar within Britain.</s>GERGEN: Absolutely. No friendship in international affairs I'm afraid has infinite limits. It often -- and we have seen this in the past in U.S./British relations, even during World War II, there were times when we were not necessarily on the same page. But I can't tell you how symbolically important this will be, even though as we've just heard, most of these troops, these British troops are in the south, in Basra. We just saw yesterday that American troops were vulnerable outside Baghdad because our forces are so thin in some places outside Baghdad. We're concentrating so much on Baghdad that we're leaving ourselves more vulnerable.</s>BLITZER: Here is what some military analysts have said to me over recent weeks and months. If the British pull out of the south, it won't take very long for a vacuum to be created there, and the relative peace and stability that we see in Basra and Umm Qasr and some of the other places in the southern part of the country, that could explode even then, once the British are gone. This could potentially be a significant problem for the U.S. and its Iraqi allies.</s>GERGEN: It could be a problem, not only a problem politically for George W. Bush in Washington, because it will increase the sense of his own isolation and the Congress will be even more rebellious, but on the ground, as you suggest, we have seen instances in the past when the British have pulled out of some places in the south. And when they pull back, what we have often seen is an outbreak of Shia upon Shia fighting and the factions that are necessary to hold together the national government, if they start going at each other in some of these areas that could be very dangerous. You know the fear all along has been that we would have this surge on the U.S. troop part, that we would keep the Brits in there, but that -- and everything we could get to relative quiet, but as soon as we started pulling back, they would be at each other's throats again. And if we see that starting to happen in the south as the British pull, if that's what they do, if we start to see that, it's going to reinforce the sense that even with a surge bringing some quiet in Baghdad, that is no guarantee that the moment we start to leave, we won't see a slaughter.</s>BLITZER: David Gergen joining us from Boston. David thanks very much.</s>GERGEN: Thanks very much, Wolf. Take care.</s>BLITZER: Could Iran's war games lead to war? A top U.S. military commander says Iran is now pushing the limits even as America builds up its own military might in the Persian Gulf region. Our Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr has the story -- Barbara.</s>BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, tough new language from the U.S. Navy on the question of Iran's intentions.</s>STARR (voice-over): Just as Defense Secretary Robert Gates has been trying to ratchet down tensions with Iran...</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are not planning a war with Iran.</s>STARR: ... a senior military commander may be on a different page than his civilian boss. Vice Admiral Patrick Walsh, the top U.S. Navy commander in the Persian Gulf, told reporters Iran's recent naval exercises near the Strait of Hormuz, are an effort to intimidate the Gulf states and show it could shut down the waterway. Walsh was not diplomatic saying specifically the concern with Iran is the combination of the rhetoric and the exercises have taken on a very bellicose and pugnacious tone. The exercises themselves, the ones that focus on the Strait of Hormuz are the ones that are my greatest concern. This week, a second aircraft carrier arrived in the North Arabian Sea, within striking distance of Iran.</s>STARR: Walsh said Iran recently launched missiles into the Gulf and demonstrated use of mines at sea. Here is what Walsh said he thinks about the message Iran is sending. It's one that I think is provocative and intimidating. But salty language is not what Walsh's boss wants. Defense Secretary Robert Gates earlier this month was asked his reaction to Iran's announcement it could hit war ships in the Gulf.</s>ROBERT GATES, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Obviously, when it comes to things like these tests, we watch them closely. And other than that, I think it's just another day in the Persian Gulf.</s>STARR: Navy officials say the last thing anybody wants is any misunderstanding what the Iranians at sea that could lead to an unexpected, unwanted shooting war -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: Barbara thank you for that. Jack Cafferty is off today. Coming up here in THE SITUATION ROOM, we're going to show you some shocking conditions at one of the best medical facilities for treating wounded soldiers. We're going to take you inside a part of the Walter Reed Army Hospital here in the nation's capital that people rarely see. Plus, the legal fate of a former White House insider now up to a jury, blistering closing arguments in the trial of Lewis "Scooter" Libby. And I'll ask the Massachusetts governor, Deval Patrick, why there are so few like him, African Americans, who hold the highest office in the country. Is he setting an example for presidential hopeful Barack Obama? Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.