National Hurricane Center Director Gives Tips for Those Who Live in Danger Areas
DARYN KAGAN, CNN ANCHOR: As you could see by that graphic, the Atlantic hurricane system officially begins tomorrow. Some officials are predicting what they call an average season, with an average number of storms. In the past, these predictions haven't always been that accurate, but technology could be changing that. Here's our Miami bureau chief, John Zarrella.</s>JOHN ZARRELLA, CNN MIAMI BUREAU CHIEF (voice-over): Hurricane Andrew was a mere tropical storm, with just 60-mile-an-hour winds three days before it hit south Florida, the third most intense hurricane to ever strike the United States. Last year, Hurricane Debbie was forecast to become a major storm threatening Florida. It fizzled out. Until now, forecasting the strength of hurricanes has been next to impossible, but a new computer model is showing promise.</s>JACK KELLY, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: We've been testing it for the past two years at the Hurricane Center, and have come to the conclusion it is beneficial and it will help our intensity forecasts.</s>ZARRELLA: By dropping a data probe into the eye wall of the hurricane, forecasters are getting information about storm winds they've never had before. The information, coupled with atmospheric data and sea surface temperature measurements, are plugged into the computer model. The result: first steps towards predicting intensity.</s>MAX MAYFIELD, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: There are still a lot of things that go on in the core of the hurricane that we're really not even measuring as well as we need to.</s>ZARRELLA: Computer models that forecast where storms are going have become steadily more accurate. Those models are based on weather conditions surrounding the hurricane. Intensity modeling has lagged behind because it's based on a storm's internal dynamics, about which little is known. In 1995, last-minute evacuations had to be ordered in Florida's panhandle. The reason: Hurricane Opal had, within hours, gone from a category 1 hurricane, with 75-mile-per-hour winds, to a near category 5 storm, with winds of 150 miles per hour. When it eventually hit, Opal's winds had cooled to 120 miles per hour. Understanding those wild fluctuations could save millions of dollars when evacuations aren't necessary, and thousands of lives when they are. John Zarrella, CNN, Miami.</s>KAGAN: For more on the hurricane season for 2001, we're joined by Max Mayfield. He is the director of the National Hurricane Center, joining us from Miami. Max, good morning. Good to see you.</s>MAYFILED: Good morning, Daryn. Good to see you.</s>KAGAN: How are you seeing 2001 shaping up for hurricane season?</s>MAYFIELD: Daryn, I'm a little concerned because I've had a lot of people make comments to me, in the last few weeks, about this so- called near-normal season, and I really don't want people focusing on the numbers. Normal season typically brings around 10 storms, six of which will become hurricanes, but it's not all about numbers. What really counts is whether they make landfall and how strong are their landfalls. You can have very damaging hurricanes, with average numbers, or even below-average numbers. In fact, the deadliest hurricane the United States ever had, the great Galveston hurricane, in 1900; the costliest hurricane we ever had, Andrew, in 1992; and most intense hurricane this country ever had, the Labor Day hurricane in 1935 all occurred in years with below-average numbers.</s>KAGAN: So you're saying don't mix up quantity and quality when it comes to these storms.</s>MAYFILED: Exactly. The message is very, very clear here: If you live in hurricane prone area, you need be prepared.</s>KAGAN: Be prepared, and that means have a plan not next month, but starting today.</s>MAYFILED: Have that plan in place now, before the hurricane comes knocking on your door, and that really means you need to know your vulnerabilities to the different hazards of the hurricane.</s>KAGAN: Let's talk about some of the things. Vulnerability, but also have a plan about how you're going to get out of there, how you're going to get out of Dodge when the hurricane shows up.</s>MAYFILED: The first step in that plan is really to know if you live in a storm-surge-evacuation zone. The storm surge, historically, has killed nine out of 10 people in the hurricanes, and the people that die in hurricanes are the nine out of ten people killed by the storm surge. So if you live if one of these storm-surge zones, you need to know exactly where you'll go to a shelter and how you'll get there. But even if you're outside the storm-surge zone, you still need to have that plan, including storm cellars, all the common sense things -- the extra food, medicine, drinking water, flashlights, batteries -- and again, have them on hand now before the hurricane comes threatening.</s>KAGAN: Max, every time we have one of these big storms, there are always the yahoos who choose to stay back and stay behind. If you are going to be a die-hard like that, what are some of the things you should have ready?</s>MAYFILED: You want to be really clear on this: If the local officials tell folks to evacuate, they need to do so immediately. I've got a lot of stories people have shared with me of people staying back at a hurricane party, and many of those people lost their lives in hurricanes.</s>KAGAN: Get out. And also, you say get over this love affair with your boat.</s>MAYFILED: We're always concerned about the marine community. It takes people a long time to secure their boats. When we put up a hurricane warning, we want to get people away from the water, not in water. Last year, we had several people down in the Caribbean that lost their lives because they stayed on a boat in a hurricane.</s>KAGAN: Max Mayfield, thanks so much for those tips. I'm sure we'll be seeing you soon -- as soon as that first big storm pops up.</s>MAYFILED: Let's hope not. OK, Daryn, thank you.</s>KAGAN: Good luck with the safe season this year.</s>MAYFILED: Thank you. TO ORDER A VIDEO OF THIS TRANSCRIPT, PLEASE CALL 800-CNN-NEWS OR USE OUR SECURE ONLINE ORDER FORM LOCATED AT www.fdch.com