Theresa May's Political Future Hangs by a Thread
ROSEMARY CHURCH, CNN HOST: We're starting another hour of news for you. Hello, everyone. Welcome to our viewers joining us from all around the world. We appreciate it. I'm Natalie Allen. And this is CNN Newsroom. And what a day it could be for Theresa May. She is still standing as Britain's prime minister but her political future is shaky because of the Brexit deal she negotiated with the European Union. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab was the first casualty. He was one of six officials in May's government to resign on Thursday, just hours after she had narrowly secured her cabinet's approval of a draft Brexit agreement. But details inside the massive document have proven to be hugely unpopular with just about everyone on every side of the Brexit issue. Now there are calls in parliament of no confidence for members of her own party. Mrs. May refused to back down as she faced reporters. Listen.</s>THERESA MAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: Leadership is about taking the right decisions not the easy ones. As Prime Minister, my job is to bring back a deal that delivers on the votes of the British people that does that by ending free movement. All the things I raised in my statement. Ending free movement, insuring we're not sending vast on your sums to the E.U. any year -- any longer. And ending the jurisdiction of the European court of justice, but also protects jobs and protect people's livelihood and protects our security, protects the union of the United Kingdom. I believe that this is a deal which does deliver that, which is in the national interest. And am I going to see this through? Yes.</s>ALLEN: She says she is, but will she? CNN's Nina Dos Santos is outside the House of Commons there for us this morning, and Phil Black is outside 10 Downing Street covering the drama for us in London. Phil, let's start with you, because Theresa May surely sounds like she's going to hang in there until the finish. The question is, will she? Her position seems very precarious.</s>PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Indeed, Natalie. So, her position, you heard it there, it's pretty clear. She's going to see it through. She believes she's acting in the national interest. She believes with every fiber of her being she says that this withdrawal agreement is the way to go. So, her message to her party is you're going to have to carry me out of this place. Now whether or not that happens, whether or not there's any enthusiasm for that sort of move within the conservative party or how great that enthusiasm is, I should say, we could find out today if there are any more high-level cabinet resignations that would undoubtedly further weaken the prime minister. The other threat comes to her from the back benches. We saw yesterday a swelling rebellion among back bench M.P.'s who are now openly calling for the prime minister to be replaced. Now for that procedure to be followed, 50 percent of party M.P.'s have to write a letter to their organizing committee question a vote of no confidence in the prime minister. That's 48 letters. If that happens, we will find out pretty quickly. And then once that happened, it's very likely that a vote could proceed soon after and then Theresa May will certainly be fighting for her political life. She's made it clear she wants to stay. But it is still possible that inevitably we could come to a position where it is no longer her choice. Natalie?</s>ALLEN: All right, Phil, thanks very much. She is fighting for her own political life right now on the radio. We're going to take a portion of her show to see what she is saying about Brexit. Let's listen.</s>MAY: Our country will be taken here in the U.K. and not by Brussels. And that's exactly what the deal I've negotiated delivers. So, we will see an end to free movement. I think this is absolutely crucial. You mentioned there that in the backstop arrangement, which I come on to in a minute. There would there be free movement? No. There wouldn't actually. There's no obligation in relation to free movement in the backstop. And when we -- when we insure that we get the future relationship in place with the E.U. free movement will end once and for all. And I know that's a really important matter for a lot of people.</s>NICK FERRARI, RADIO HOST, LBC: That's a big win, though. Sorry to interrupt on you. You say, when you get that deal, there's no guarantee when that might be.</s>MAY: Well, all -- everything in the deal is about working really hard and doing our best to make sure that's there by the first of January 2021. What we've done is we're leaving next month, that's the first thing to say--</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: -- to all your listeners. We're leaving the European Union on 29th of March, 2019. But then going to be a period of time up to the end of December 2020 for businesses to be adjusting to what the new relationship we're going to have with the E.U. will be.</s>FERRARI: But what, Mrs. May, what can you achieve in 21 months that you've not been able to achieve in two years?</s>MAY: Well, because those 21 months will be based on what we've -- part of what we've decided and what we've agreed in those years. Because although there's -- you know, Daniel, I recognized because you particularly reference the backstop. And I know there's a lot of concern about the backstop, and I fully recognized that. And I have some of those concerns myself. But obviously alongside that, what's called the withdrawal agreement acts as part of that is the future relationship, that the document that says here's the basis on which we're going to continue to cooperate with the European Union on things like working together to deal with organized crime and terrorism. Here's the way in which we're going to be able to continue to trade with -- trade with the European Union in the future. And it will be the case in that future relationship that we will have -- parliament will have the ability to decide who comes into our country and how we spend our money so we can spend the money with sending to the E.U. today on RHS and other priorities and determine our laws.</s>FERRARI: Daniel, thank you for that. I want to get the opportunity to as many people as possible. Let -- I want -- you probably want him to come back but I must move on. Michael and Derry, appropriately enough. Michael, you're on the radio through to the prime minister. Go ahead.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. Morning, Mick. Good morning, Prime Minister.</s>FERRARI: Good morning, sir.</s>MAY: Good morning.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm from the north. And all I say when we voted in the majority to remain, myself included, I actually see that, Prime Minister, would be of a huge benefit to the region. However, can the prime minister give any assurance to the people of the north that the stop being negotiated and wouldn't be stopped by her confidence and supply (Ph) partners within the DUP?</s>MAY: Well, thanks very much, Michael. Because I think one of the things we've been trying to do is to ensure that people living in Northern Ireland, businesses in Northern Ireland can carry on as they do today and won't see any problems arising as a result of us leaving the E.U. in relation to the border with Ireland. But when this deal is finalized and there's a meeting a week on Sunday with the E.U. cancel, when this deal is finalized and comes back to parliament, I hope every single member of parliament is going to look at the need to ensure that we deliver on the referendum, deliver on the result of the referendum for the British people. And think about the impact on our overall national interest, on our economy, and also on the jobs of their constituents. And you know, I'm doing my job. I'm doing, bringing back what I believe to be the best deal for Britain and M.P.'s will then do their job and thinking about the impact on their constituents.</s>FERRARI: But Northern Ireland will be treated differently, won't they, that's different from the rest of the United Kingdom as part of this deal?</s>MAY: Well, no. You see, this is, if I can in one sense, can I give an explanation which may seem lengthy.</s>FERRARI: Please.</s>MAY: There's two bits to the deal. This is -- this is very crucial. One bit of it is this treaty that is about how we leave the European Union. This is -- and this is things like, if you're a business today and you got a contract with the European -- with a country in the European Union that is going to extend beyond the date that we leave, what happens to your contract?</s>FERRARI: Right.</s>MAY: What happens to that business? So, things like that have to be looked at. And that's part of that withdrawal agreement.</s>FERRARI: But is it true--</s>MAY: But separately.</s>FERRARI: -- that you can impose a different VAT rate on Northern Ireland as (Inaudible) yesterday?</s>MAY: No. This is not about -- the decisions about VAT, the -- we will be responsible.</s>FERRARI: During the transition period.</s>MAY: During -- well, during the -- question people have asked and this is where it gets slightly more complex, but the question people have asked about what's called this backstop arrangement.</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: Now the point of the backstop is to say that even if we can't get a future relationship in -- you've asked me what date.</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: By the beginning of 2021, is there's a short period of time where we can't move to that future relationship, we need to make sure that Northern Ireland's border is still fully open with Ireland.</s>FERRARI: Yes. Which means--</s>MAY: And that's what the backstop is about.</s>FERRARI: Yes, so it is effectively still and more under the E.U.'s control than it is the</s>U.K. MAY: It will be -- well, what we've negotiated is to make sure there's no customs border down the Irish Sea which is absolutely crucial to me, that we didn't have Northern Ireland be separated off on that sense.</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: They would be enjoying keeping some regulations--</s>FERRARI: yes.</s>MAY: -- the same as with the</s>E.U. FERRARI: But if I remind you Lancaster house last year, Prime Minister, you said this would strengthen the union.</s>MAY: Yes.</s>FERRARI: This doesn't seem to be strengthening the United Kingdom.</s>MAY: Well, we are maintaining the integrity of United Kingdom, Nick. Look, what the E.U. wanted, what the E.U. wanted was effectively to separate Northern Ireland out away from the rest of the U.K. We said no.</s>FERRARI: They wanted a hard border.</s>MAY: They wanted, effectively they wanted customs border down the Irish sea.</s>FERRARI: That's what they said.</s>MAY: Well, that's what they said. They said that back in February. We said no immediately. We've been saying no ever since. And in October they finally said, OK, we accept we have to do it in a different way. So, we've now got it being done in a different way. But the point--</s>FERRARI: And this is the biggest point of intransigent did you see?</s>MAY: Well, no. There been quite a few. There been quite lot of areas. I know one of the things, you know, Daniel when he rang up--</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: -- he spoke about sovereignty. One of the key things that a lot of people worried about is this European court business, you know. How much can the European court do to the U.K. once they're out? The answer is we will no longer be under the jurisdiction of the European court.</s>FERRARI: All right. We move on. Just lastly, it's been reported that sources close to Arlene Foster, (Inaudible) leader of the DUP says that they're ready to withdraw support unless there's a new prime minister. Are you aware of this?</s>MAY: I'm aware of a lot of things that are written and rumors, Nick. Look--</s>FERRARI: is it true, have you had a rather testy exchange with Arlene Foster?</s>MAY: No. I haven't had a testy exchange with Arlene on that. We've had exchanges with the DUP.</s>FERRARI: You still enjoy her support, the support of her party?</s>MAY: On Northern -- we have had exchanges with the DUP about Northern -- the issue in relation to Northern Ireland. They've raised some questions with us, they've raised some concerns with us. And yes, we're looking at those. So, one issue is what can we do in the U.K. ourselves? Nothing to do with the deal with the E.U. What can we do in the U.K. to help to reassure not just the DUP but the people of Northern Ireland.</s>FERRARI: And so, you still got her support, the DUP support.</s>MAY: We've -- yes, we're still working with the</s>DUP. FERRARI: And they'll vote for this deal do you think?</s>MAY: Well, we will see how every member of parliament is going to vote for this deal.</s>FERRARI: But you're confident they'll vote for it?</s>MAY: I am confident that members of parliament when they see this deal when it comes back--</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: -- when they look at it--</s>FERRARI: Yes.</s>MAY: -- they will be saying to themselves--</s>FERRARI: Including the DUP. Sorry to stress this point, the DUP will be voting with you.</s>MAY: Look, the -- I -- when this vote comes back, every individual member of parliament will decide how they vote. Whether they are member of the DUP, conservative labour or parties within the House of Commons. My job is to persuade, you know, first and foremost, my -- my conservative benches, those who are working with us, the DUP are working with us obviously in confidence and supply. But I want to say, be able to say to all parliamentarians every M.P. I believe this is, truly believes this is the best deal for Britain.</s>FERRARI: Julie (Inaudible). Julie, you're through to the prime minister, go ahead.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Hi, Nick and Prime Minister.</s>MAY: Hello.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Thank you for talking. I'm glad you are talking to the people about this now. I just need to ask, I'm disabled, I'm bedridden and I take medicines and need appliances to keep me alive so I can be with my family. I just would like to ask about the provision in the draft agreement makes to guarantee access to medicines in the future and in the future relationship. How long will people have to worry and whether they're going to be getting their medicines?</s>MAY: Well, Julie, you've raised a really important point. And I think, you know, this is something that people have asked both -- you know, if we weren't going to get a deal what would happen. And the Department of Health is making sure that medicines will continue to be available in that -- in that circumstance.</s>FERRARI: Is that good stock piling, prime minister.</s>MAY: It's making proper contingency, Nick, to make sure that if there's a problem, if there are any problems at the border--</s>FERRARI: Right.</s>MAY: -- that medicines can still get through and that they're available for people. But the next issue which you've absolutely rightly raised, Julie, is about the whole question of what happens in the future. And what we're doing is within the agreement, we want -- we're looking at the relationship we have with something called the European medicine agency and this is about making sure that drugs are -- will still be in -- and medicines will still be available in the U.K. And it is by the process, you know, if new drugs come on board, how do we insure that those drugs are available as easily in the U.K. as they will be elsewhere in Europe.</s>FERRARI: In the cabinet meeting, when the Matt Hancock, the health secretary said in a case of a no deal scenario, he couldn't guarantee no one would die as a result of the deal -- of that no deal. How did you react?</s>MAY: Well, first of all, I don't normally talk about what said--</s>ALLEN: British prime minister, the embattled prime minister taking her case for Brexit straight to the people this morning there in London on a live radio show. We have with us to talk about it, what could happen and transpire on this day. CNN's Nina Dos Santos outside the House of Commons. Phil Black is outside 10 Downing Street. I get to you, Nina in just a moment. I want to go back to Phil, to you first. Is this unprecedented or is this something that's kind of typical with this prime minister to go on a radio show like this and kind of plead her case straight to the people?</s>BLACK: So, what you heard there was the prime minister taking questions from people across the country. And her, continuing her effort to explain to the country why she believes that this is the best pragmatic way forward and why she believes her vision for Brexit as it's been negotiated is the best option for the country. Now, I think it was expected at this time. Once the final withdrawal agreement was revealed, that yes, she would essentially go on something of a tour, if you like, to sell it. Not just to the politicians here in Westminster, but to people across the country. And to explain to them why she believes that after this long negotiation process, although the deal is not perfect, it's not precisely what she wanted. It is the best end result of those negotiations from her point of view and why she thinks it is the better way forward. And also, why she believes and she said this over the last 24 hours or so, that there simply is no better option. You heard her there talking about the backstop, the Irish backstop. That is at the core of much of the discontent that we've been talking about over the last day or so. It has led to people resigning from cabinet, it has led to people in her own party calling for her to go. And it is highly technical. She may have notice she was struggling to explain it herself there. Because it is about what happens at the end of what's known as the transition period. So, Britain leaves the E.U. at the end of next March. That's a given as the prime minister said. We then enter a transition period to try and determine what the future relationship will be. That's 21 months long. At the end of that 21-month process, the hope is that there will be a new trade and agreement, something that really clearly defines what the future relationship will be between the U.K. and the E.U. but if there isn't, and if they decide not to extend that transition period, then that's when the backstop kicks in. It's an insurance policy that is designed to ensure that there will never be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. Northern Ireland part of the U.K. and the Irish Republic will still be part of the E.U. It will be the one land border between the U.K. and the European Union. And the reason why there is so much concern about that is because of the violence that gripped that region for decades. The concern is that if you install a hard border there, then that undermines the fragile peace that exists there and has been taking root for some years now ever since the Good Friday agreement. But the concern from the Brexit purists is that backstop simply leaves the U.K. tied too closely to Europe that it abdicates powers and sovereignty to a degree that they are simply not prepare to accept. And that is why Theresa May's political future is in doubt today. Natalie?</s>ALLEN: All right, Phil. Let's cross over to Nina Dos Santos. Speaking of her political future, she's outside the House of Commons which could decide that. She just said on that radio show, Nina, I believe this is the best thing for Britain and the M.P.'s will agree with me. Well, we'll see.</s>NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN CORRESPPONDENT: Well, she's a bit more evasive than that. Actually, if you read the tea leaves of what she was saying, especially when she was asked, Natalie, about whether she could count upon the support of the DUP that northern Irish party that very much wants to stay part of the U.K.'s unionist. Vehemently opposed to any change in legislation that is still referred to, could give more power to Brussels, more power to the Republic of Ireland which is inside the E.U. and south of its border rather than the U.K. Effectively, they do not want any different type of legislation that could see them cleave away from the U.K. because they believe that could be the first stretch towards eventually at some point in the future, potentially even a unified Ireland which of course, would spark the violence that we saw so many years ago that nobody wants to return to. And there are reports in some of the conservative pro-Brexit newspapers that the prime minister has already lost the support of the DUP. She was asked repeatedly on that radio show as you could hear there, whether or not she still has the support of the DUP. Eventually, she said yes, and then of course, the host said, will they vote with you, can you count on their 10 votes that you so badly need -- needed? And she was more evasive about that point. And that brings me to the parliamentary arithmetic here. It is looking increasingly unlikely that at this point Theresa May has yet managed to secure the support of members of the opposition party about 50-odd pro-Brexit, fiercely pro-Brexit M.P.'s who said they're going to vote down her deal in parliament. That leaves her without anywhere near the majority that she needs to get this through. She needs 320 votes to get it through. She only has 350 which isn't a majority at the moment for her whole party after calling an ill-fated general election in 2017, she could lose 10 votes from the DUP. She can't necessarily count on labor support either. So that's the real concern here about the parliamentary arithmetic and as Phil was pointing out before earlier in the show, she also has to deal with the arithmetic in terms of the potential for a leadership challenge within her own party. If 48 members of her own party write to specific back bench committee saying they have no confidence in the prime minister, she well, may well, not be the person to try and push this through the house. And her deal could fall apart.</s>ALLEN: We'll be watching it hour by hour on this day. Nina Dos Santos for us and Phil Black. Thank you both so much. And we'll be right back with more news right after this.