Decision Day in Iowa; In Their Own Words: Candidates Appeal to Voters
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Happening now, decision day in Iowa. What happens, only a few hours from now, could shape the rest of the presidential campaign. This hour, the spotlight shifts to the voters and the important choices they're about to make. Tonight, presidential campaigns could be made or they could be broken. We're following the candidates on this day of reckoning, and their strategies for trying to turn out the vote. And we'll talk to two of them, Republican Fred Thompson and Democrat Bill Richardson. Plus, your guide to the caucuses, what to look for tonight and how Iowa may influence the next big contest in New Hampshire. That's next Tuesday. The road to the White House begins right now. I'm Wolf Blitzer at the CNN Election Center. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM. Welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. On this day in the state of Iowa, Americans are taking the first step in choosing our next president. Voters are preparing to gather in living rooms like this one, as well as in schools, libraries, firehouses, where they'll reveal their choices to be the Republican and the Democratic presidential nominees. Tonight, when the results are tallied and posted in Des Moines, the race for the White House could be a whole new ball game. No one, no one knows what will happen in the next few hours, but the outcome could hinge in part on first-time voters, especially for the Democratic field. Let's begin our coverage with CNN's Jessica Yellin. She's out there watching all of this unfold. A huge push to bring in these first-time caucus-goers later tonight, Jessica.</s>JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Wolf. The biggest push ever, in fact. Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are counting on a history-making turnout of first-time caucus- goers to give them a victory tonight.</s>YELLIN (voice over): With Iowa up for grabs, Democrats were on a mad dash to shake hands and woo supporters. One group of Iowa's is getting extra-special attention -- first-time caucus-goers.</s>DAVID YEPSEN, "DES MOINES REGISTER": The effort to get out first-time caucus-goers is unprecedented. It's different from what we've ever seen before. There are more people and more effort and more money being spent.</s>YELLIN: It seems to be working. First-timers say they're driven to participate for different reasons.</s>MARK SIGN, PLANS TO CAUCUS FOR FIRST TIME: We've lost our standing in the world, our country is on a downhill slope, I think. And I thought it was time to get out and do something about it.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My feelings about the war in Iraq, of being a mother, you know, worrying about college and the future for my children, the economy as a middle-class family, you know, the price of oil and gas.</s>YELLIN: According to a recent "Des Moines Register" poll, 72 percent of Barack Obama's support is coming from first-time caucus- goers, largely college students and Independents, groups that are historically difficult to turn out. The same poll shows 58 percent of Hillary Clinton's supporters are first-timers. She's targeting older women. One hurdle, caucusing can seem intimidating. This first-timer did his research on the Internet.</s>NATHANIEL JONES, PLANS TO CAUCUS FOR FIRS TIME: I know that there's a process of several alignments where you go through and voice your support for a candidate, see if you can get a critical mass of the people there to support them too.</s>YELLIN (on camera): What are the chances you don't show up?</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm pretty sure I'm going, yeah. Yes, I'm going to go.</s>YELLIN (voice over): If the first-timers don't turn out, that's expected to help John Edwards. He needs them the least. Wolf</s>YELLIN: And Wolf, here's one complicating factor. Unlike a regular election, when you can show up any time of day, for the Democratic caucus you have to show up between 6:30 and 7:00 Central Time tonight, so if the car breaks down or your child gets sick, there's no coming late, which is one of the reasons these campaigns are deploying people to drive folks, to walk them to the caucuses, to make sure they get every caucus-goer possible -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: They shut those doors 7:00 p.m. Central, 8:00 p.m. Eastern. And nobody gets into those rooms after that. What about the weather? We've heard so much in recent days about it being cold, it's snowy. It looks sort of clear behind you right now. What's the forecast for the next few hours?</s>YELLIN: The forecast is for cold temperatures but clear. No snow, no blizzard, which is very good news for those campaigns counting on those first-time caucus-goers. It minimizes the chances first-timers will decide to stay home -- Wolf.</s>BLITZER: Only a few hours from now. All right. Thanks very much. Jessica Yellin reporting. When many of those caucus-goers show up tonight, they'll be questioned in our entrance polls. You probably heard a lot over these years of exit polls, but these are entrance polls. It's essentially the same drill, but the caucuses -- for the caucuses, we survey voters on the way in rather than on the way out. We ask them about themselves, the issues they care about, and their presidential choices. Let's bring in our expert on all of this, our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. What are we going to be looking for in this entrance polling over the next few hours?</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: We're going to be looking for not just who wins, but how they did it and why.</s>SCHNEIDER (voice over): Show up to caucus on this cold January night? Like older women? They're strongly for Hillary Clinton, and union members, a key group for both Clinton and John Edwards. Young voters and Independents don't usually show up in large numbers. Both Barack Obama and Clinton are counting on a heavy turnout of new voters.</s>SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Because all you folks who said you've never been to caucus before are deciding to get involved for the first time, we might just pull this thing off.</s>SCHNEIDER: In 2004, Iowa caucus-goers went for John Kerry because they believed he was the most electable. Will that help Hillary Clinton tonight?</s>OBAMA: The notion, you know, that a viability or electability argument is being made by somebody who starts off with almost half the country not being willing to vote for them doesn't make much sense.</s>SCHNEIDER: In the Republican race, religion will be a key factor. Our entrance poll will tell us how much it matters to Republicans whether a candidate shares their religious beliefs. Republican candidates have been busy attacking each other's records on illegal immigration. Will illegal immigration turn out to be a major issue in the race? And which candidate will it help? Then there's the Ron Paul factor. He's raised a lot of money. His supporters are passionate. Are there antiwar Republicans out there?</s>REP. RON PAUL (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to find out a few answers. Maybe the individuals that support me haven't been on the voting polls and they will register and come out.</s>SCHNEIDER: Could Ron Paul be the big surprise of the night?</s>SCHNEIDER: What's on voters' minds as they show up to support one candidate or another tonight? That's what our entrance poll is for -- mind reading.</s>BLITZER: And explain, Bill, why these entrance polls that we're all going to be studying tonight are going to be much more reliable as far as the Republicans are concerned, as opposed to the Democratic process, which is much more complicated?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, that's the reason. The Republicans -- simply, the voters just show up at the caucus, cast a Straw Poll ballot, and that will be reflected in our entrance poll, which asks them who they intend to vote for. Very simple. The Democrats have a whole process whereby people show up to support one candidate, and during the caucus they can regroup. If there are not enough supporters for a particular candidate, they support somebody else. So they can come out, literally exit the caucus, supporting a different candidate than the one they came to support initially. Our entrance poll, of course, tells us how many people showed up to support each of the Democratic contenders.</s>BLITZER: And it doesn't reflect if they change their mind later in the evening, which many of them will in fact do. All right. Bill Schneider and Jessica Yellin, thanks to both of you. They are both part of the Emmy Award-winning best political team on television. Remember, for the latest political news at any time, you can check out our political ticker at cnnpolitics.com. Let's bring in Jack Cafferty and "The Cafferty File" here at the CNN Election Center. You know, we've been yakking and yakking and yakking about this for months and months and months.</s>JACK CAFFERTY, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.</s>BLITZER: It's finally -- it's finally about to happen.</s>CAFFERTY: You know, the best thing about this is we'll have something new to talk about tomorrow.</s>BLITZER: Real numbers.</s>CAFFERTY: Yes. We're getting to the bottom of the barrel on some of this stuff. For example, money can buy a lot of things when it comes to politics, but the Iowa caucuses might not be one of them. The "L.A. Times," in search of a story, came up with this -- the presidential contenders have poured tens of millions of dollars into the contest in Iowa, but history shows the candidate who spends the most money in Iowa doesn't always win. We don't know exactly how much each candidate has spent in Iowa this year, but we do know this, both Mike Huckabee and John Edwards are threatening to win this thing tonight, despite being overwhelmingly outspent by their opponents. For example, Republican Mitt Romney spent $52 million running for president through September of last year. A lot of that money was spent in Iowa. During that same period of time, Mike Huckabee went to the hip for a paltry $1.7 million. On the Democratic side, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton reportedly each spent about $20 million in Iowa, and that compares to just $4 million spent by John Edwards. Four years ago, Howard Dean outspent both John Kerry and John Edwards before Iowa, and of course we all know what happened to Dean, don't we? In 1988, Pat Robertson outspent several other Republicans in the running, but he didn't win Iowa. So the question is this: What does it say about the Iowa caucuses that candidates who spend the most money don't necessarily win there? Go to CNN.com/caffertyfile. You can post a comment there on my new blog.</s>BLITZER: It sort of means money doesn't always talk, right?</s>CAFFERTY: No. But in politics you'd think it does.</s>BLITZER: Yes.</s>CAFFERTY: And particularly in the national election when it gets going. They say you need $100 million to run for president, you've got to pour money into television, do all this stuff, and without it you don't have a chance. But Iowa, it's not quite the same deal.</s>BLITZER: I think you're right. All right. Jack, thanks very much. This is the place for complete results and analysis of the caucuses tonight. And remember, it all begins at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. We're going to stay right here throughout the night. Just ahead, though, the two Republican front-runners in Iowa are taking very different paths on this, the final hours before the caucuses. Mike Huckabee goes populist. Mitt Romney goes corporate. We'll have live reports from the campaign trail in Iowa. Plus, we'll hear from some of the candidates themselves explaining how they would bring change to the White House and how they're different from the other guys. And later, when Iowans leave the caucus room tonight, who will come out a winner? Bill Bennett and Donna Brazile, they're standing by live to give us their predictions right here in our "Strategy Session." Stay with us. You're in THE SITUATION ROOM.