New U.S. Cases Trending Downward; White House to Labs: Get Test Kits Done; Virus May Not Go Away in Warm Weather; U.K. Prime Minister's Condition Improving
JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): Hello and welcome to our viewers in the United States and around the world. I'm John Vause. Coming up on CNN NEWSROOM, predictions are not destiny. For a second day, the expected death toll from the coronavirus in the U.S. has been significantly scaled back. Social distancing appears to be more effective than they first expected it to be. The same pandemic model expects the U.K. to be the hardest hit European country, the virus claiming more than 66,000 lives. And pandemic politics: the U.S. president again tries to shift blame for his administration's feelings to the WHO, as almost 100 world leaders make a desperate plea for coordinated international action.</s>VAUSE: The latest pandemic model has some encouraging news for the U.S. But a grim outlook for the U.K. These are early predictions and are not written in stone but by using current data, Britain is on track to have the highest death toll in Europe, more than 66,000. It's important to know that the leading scientists in the U.K. don't believe the numbers are accurate. This same model predictions the death toll in the U.S. will also be around 60,000, where the rate of new infections has slowed. The White House says that that is because Americans have been vigilant in following stay-at-home orders, they need to continue to do so. There's now clarity about what will happen as the weather gets warmer. The U.S. president has said that it will disappear. It will not. The National Academy of Sciences says high temperatures and humidity may slow this virus slightly but not enough to stop it spreading. We get more from CNN's Nick Watt.</s>NICK WATT, CNN ANCHOR (voice-over): A glimmer of hope: a model used by the White House now predicts the nationwide death toll is down about 20,000, largely due to social distancing. But:</s>ANDREW CUOMO (D), GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK: Today is a day in the state of New York with very mixed emotions.</s>WATT (voice-over): -- because day after day the state is still seeing a rise in reported deaths and --</s>CUOMO: The number of deaths will continue to rise as those hospitalized for a longer period of time pass away.</s>DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: It is very sobering to see the increase in deaths. It's going to be a bad week for deaths.</s>WATT (voice-over): -- about 60,000 Americans are still projected to die by early August. Right now, we are not even a quarter of the way to that grim total. And every number is a person, a story. Zenobia Shepherd's daughter, Leilani, just died, aged 27.</s>ZENOBIA SHEPHERD, LEILANI'S MOTHER: My husband and I both were in the room, you know, and I was able to hold my baby's hands for the last time. And it was so hard for me. It was my baby.</s>WATT (voice-over): The new modeling also highlights regional disparities; projected deaths in New Jersey more than doubled to over 5,200; projected deaths in California down from about 6,100 to about 1,600.</s>DR. DEBORAH BIRX, WHITE HOUSE CORONAVIRUS RESPONSE COORDINATOR: We are looking very carefully at California and Washington to really understand how they have been able, as a community of Americans, to mitigate so well.</s>WATT (voice-over): A CNN poll shows the majority of Americans now think the federal government has done a poor job in preventing coronavirus spread. It's 55 percent, up 8 points in about a week. The administration also still watching hotspots popping up around the country.</s>BIRX: We are concerned about the metro area of Washington and Baltimore and we're concerned right now about the Philadelphia area.</s>WATT (voice-over): Some states now stockpiling a malaria drug to treat COVID-19. It's not proven to work; potentially dangerous. Florida expecting a million doses today; Georgia already given 200,000.</s>TRUMP: I really think it is a great thing to try, just based on what I know, again, I am not a doctor.</s>WATT (voice-over): Adam Jarrett is.</s>DR. ADAM JARRETT, HOLY NAME MEDICAL CENTER: So we are using hydroxychloroquine but we really don't know whether it works.</s>WATT (voice-over): And still, we are told there is not enough testing going on.</s>BIRX: All the lab directors could look in their laboratories, if they have an Avid M2000, if they could get that up and running, we could double the number of tests we're doing per day. Right now about 80 percent of them are idle. Over 1 million test kits sitting, ready to be run.</s>DR. ROB DAVIDSON, E.R. PHYSICIAN: Well, I hope that the federal government is doing more than speaking this at the press conference.</s>DAVIDSON: This is the key to opening us back up again, getting these tests online.</s>WATT (voice-over): So are antibody tests; the White House says they'll be ready inside two weeks.</s>CUOMO: That is going to be the bridge from where we are today to the new economy. People who have been exposed and now are better, those people can go back to work.</s>WATT (voice-over): But for now, still, this must be our normal.</s>BILL DE BLASIO (D), NEW YORK MAYOR: We have to recognize the progress is because people are doing the right thing.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: If you're watching from Jersey, please stay home.</s>WATT: A quick note on those models, they can change, they can go up or down, also the projection of a drop in the deaths in the U.S. is based on social distancing continuing through the end of May, that's another seven weeks or so -- Nick Watt, CNN, Los Angeles.</s>VAUSE: Dr. Ryan McGarry is in emergency medical physician, joining us from Los Angeles. Doctor, thanks for taking the time to be with us. There is relatively good news, the death rate in the United States is to be far less than previously thought. It's assuming social distancing measures, including closure of businesses and schools, will remain in place until August. Other measures could replace those measures, including mass screening, contact tracing and selective quarantines. But overall, does this give you hope? How do you read them in terms of what we have ultimately seen in the E.R.?</s>DR. RYAN MCGARRY, EMERGENCY MEDICINE PHYSICIAN: Yes, cautious optimism. If you live in the States you don't have to go much further back to the 2016 election to know that modeling is frequently wrong. I think, yes, cautiously optimistic. Here on the front lines in Los Angeles, we continue to see a daily rise in both the volume and intensity of illness. Here in L.A. we have a very vulnerable population, our homeless population is high, over 50,000 in the city. It's a tinderbox that can go either way. Some of us think the story of L.A. will be told via that population, whether or not we can protect them or not.</s>VAUSE: It's hard to stay at home when you don't have a home.</s>MCGARRY: Correct.</s>VAUSE: All this is based on the assumption that restrictions of movement will remain in place through August. At the same time we're hearing from the U.S. president pushing for opening up of the economy. He wants that to happen in weeks. You can't have both, can you?</s>MCGARRY: You can't have both, I don't think. Driving down the streets in L.A., you see a lot of pain. There's a lot of dark windows, a lot of closed businesses. I understand that many of us would want a leader to be optimistic and push for an opening when we can do it. That said, we know that this is a very unpredictable and dangerous threat like we have never seen before in our lifetimes. I think it has been 100 years since the last major pandemic in the world, the flu of 1918. This requires a whole new level of thinking. It will change how we interact and look at the world forever. To end this early, just as we are seeing good progress, I get it is tempting; I sure hope we don't do that.</s>VAUSE: It seems to, me if there is one way you could do this and not have the virus come back is through testing. But the testing has to be widespread, everyone has to be tested. You also have to look at the antibodies, right?</s>MCGARRY: I think in the end, we know that there will be future waves. Even as we get through the best of those models, there is data that suggests that 97 percent of Americans will not have had any exposure to the virus. That is a huge wake up call that this is just round one. In the end, I think it will be a mixture of things, antibodies, testing, vaccine and possible hope with some of the medications out there that may reduce symptoms. You need all three to get after. This</s>VAUSE: A month ago Donald Trump made this prediction, based on no evidence whatsoever, here he is.</s>TRUMP: The virus, they are working hard, it looks like by April, as it gets warmer, it miraculously goes away.</s>VAUSE: The president was wrong. A scientific panel told the White House that there is some evidence that transmission might be lower with the high ambient temperature and humidity. But given the lack of host immunity globally, that reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread.</s>VAUSE: If we look at Australia, where it's summer, or Iran and India, where the climate is hot, the virus continues to spread.</s>MCGARRY: Right. You don't have to look further than SARS and MERS, that share properties with this virus, to know those were horrible outbreaks that did not respect seasonal change. I think again, I understand the wish for optimism. You wonder if, in the middle of World War II, if our leaders said something as fantasy as that, I am not sure that would go over well with the troops at the front line. Those of us on the front line are going, well, OK, no, it won't go away.</s>VAUSE: Because L.A. and California would be looking at their peak just as the weather starts to get warm, hoping it would be mitigated, that's obviously not the case now. We're bracing for the peak expected in about two months or so from now. Is that right?</s>MCGARRY: Yes, some of the models think sooner. Again, it can be one or two weeks. Again these models are uncertain, uncertain times as we go further, process the data, that predictions ideally get better. But I think when you are on the front line and you know the variance of these things, you are best being prepared. That's certainly how I head to my shift every day, is just being ready for the worst.</s>VAUSE: Good luck. Stay well. Thank you for everything you are doing. Dr. Ryan McGarry in Los Angeles. We appreciate it.</s>MCGARRY: Thank you.</s>VAUSE: A nationwide looked in France is expected to be extended beyond April 15. President Macron is expected to make a televised address Monday, his third from the Elysee Palace since this crisis began. On Wednesday the government reported the 24 hour death toll was 562. But a lack of information from elderly care facilities, the number of dead is likely higher. Officials in the U.K. say there's a sign that new infections have started to plateau. Still the virus claimed 900 plus lives on Wednesday and the government says social distancing is critical for preventing surge in new cases. After three nights in intensive care, the British prime minister is in a stable condition. He seemed to be responding well to treatment for COVID-19. His condition has improved to the point where we're told he's sitting up in bed and engaging with his clinical team around him. Nina dos Santos is live in London. Boris Johnson is improving, so what is the latest on that?</s>NINA DOS SANTOS, CNNMONEY EUROPE EDITOR: Yesterday afternoon, evening, with the coronavirus press briefing, that senior members of government give to the public audience, the U.K.'s Chancellor of the Exchequer, the de facto finance minister, said that Boris Johnson was responding positively to treatment, sitting up in bed. We have been told repeatedly that the prime minister is breathing unaided, although he has required some extra standard oxygen support. Also the prime minister was engaging positively with NHS staff that were treating him. Essentially, the prime minister is conscious. He is awake and in command. He also does not need the help of a mechanical ventilator that might require far more drastic treatment options. We still don't know when he will be able to return to Downing Street. He has had coronavirus symptoms for 15 days so far. All of this was to try to alleviate concerns about whether or not his health was deteriorating. A lot of people in his age bracket, it can affect men disproportionately more than women, they can deteriorate quickly once they reach ICU. And the government is saying this was an abundance of precaution because he is the head of the government -- John.</s>VAUSE: Nina, thank you, with the very latest on Boris Johnson. There is a war of words in the midst of the war on a virus, between the U.S. and the head of the World Health Organization, the two men accusing each other of playing politics with this deadly virus. Also a big meeting today between Russia and OPEC, what it could mean for oil prices and for your wallet.