Tuesday's Democratic Primary; The "3:00 a.m. Phone Call" Contest; Possible Vice Presidential Candidates
LARRY KING, HOST: Tonight, two states - Texas, Ohio. Two candidates - Clinton, Obama.</s>SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will not just win Ohio. We will win this nomination.</s>KING: Will one winner emerge? It's close. It's crucial. It's the political showdown of the primary season. Next on LARRY KING LIVE.</s>KING: We have an outstanding panel tonight. The panel will be with us throughout. There will be some interruptions with others coming in, but let's meet those that kick it off. Laura Schwartz, the Democratic strategist, former special assistant to the president. David Frum, former speechwriter and special assistant to President Bush, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and author of "Come Back: Conservatism That Can Win Again." In Orlando, Florida, Peter Beinart. Peter is a senior fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of the "Good Fight: Why Liberals - And Only Liberals - Can Win the War On Terror and Make America Great Again." And back here in L.A., Amy Holmes, the Republican strategist and CNN political analyst. And in Washington, Chris Cillizza; Chris writes "The Fix," the politics blog for "TheWashingtonPost.com." What can we expect, Laura, from a Democratic standpoint on Tuesday?</s>LAURA SCHWARTZ, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I think Barack Obama may win Texas, especially because of the Texas two-step. You've got the primaries and you've got the caucus. This week came out from the Hillary Clinton campaign, that they were looking in legally, how does the caucus system work in Texas. They didn't imagine they would ever have to go beyond Super Tuesday. So they've had to play catch up versus the Barack Obama team. They've had a grass roots team in place already.</s>KING: In Ohio?</s>SCHWARTZ: Ohio is going to be a little tougher for Barack Obama. I think she may hold on to that, but not enough for a delegate lead of any significance.</s>KING: What do the Republicans expect on Tuesday, Amy?</s>AMY HOLMES, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST AND CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: They're expecting John McCain to sweep. Polls show that he had healthy, healthy double digits both in Texas and Ohio. So the question for Mike Huckabee is - how long does he want to stay in? Is he having a good time? Is he raising his name ID? You know, Republicans are pretty confident John McCain's got this done.</s>KING: Does he leave Huckabee Tuesday night?</s>HOLMES: You know, that's entirely up to him and we thought that he was just done on "Saturday Night Live." I think he's having a good time.</s>KING: Peter, from the standpoint of the man who is the liberal, but not necessarily taking sides here, what do you see Tuesday?</s>PETER BEINART, SENIOR FELLOW, THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS: I mean I agree with what's been said. Barack Obama has an enormous financial advantage that he is now deploying in both states. And he is using that financial advantage, not only for the fact that he raised so much money, but the fact that very powerful outside groups that come in on his behalf, allowing him to swamp Hillary Clinton in spending. And so you're seeing that the margin declining and declining. And as was said earlier, because of the way Texas works and the fact that African-American areas and college towns where Obama would do well, may end up getting more delegates than some of the areas - Hispanic areas in south Texas where Hillary Clinton is supposed to do well. She could win the popular vote there, but still come out with fewer delegates. And I think, all in all, it's going to be hard for them to claim that as a big win.</s>KING: David Frum, what do you think? Do you agree with Amy on the Republican side of things, Tuesday?</s>DAVID FRUM, FORMER SPEECHWRITER AND ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT BUSH: I think Mike Huckabee has a very clear plan, which is he needs to stamp on the public mind the idea that he, not Mitt Romney, was the man who came in second. For the Democratic Party, if you come in second in a primary contest, you are a loser; whereas in the Republican Party, if you come in second, you're Mr. Next Time.</s>KING: And Mr. Vice President maybe, or maybe not?</s>FRUM: Well, I think - I don't know whether it will be. Whoever that vice presidential nominee is, that would be the chief rival to whoever is thought to have come in second, whether it's Romney or Huckabee. But it's a very serious prize that Huckabee is chasing. He's not just doing this to have a good time.</s>KING: And Chris Cillizza, what do you say?</s>CHRIS CILLIZZA, BLOG WRITER, "THE FIX": You know, Larry, the one thing I would say about the Democrat race - watch Texas. Hillary Clinton went up yesterday with an ad, you know, "3:00 a.m. Phone Call," really trying to drive -</s>KING: Yes. And we're going to show it in a minute.</s>CILLIZZA: Really trying to drive home the idea that - Is Barack Obama ready to be president if that phone call comes in about a crisis? And in the shorter term, is he ready to fight John McCain, the likely Republican nominee to withdraw on that issue in the general election. She's made that argument subtly before. All subtlety has gone out the window now. We're four days out. So she's making that argument very strongly. Let's see. Barack Obama has condemned it as the politics of fear. Hillary Clinton is saying, "I don't think Texans scare that easy." I think that's a real interesting subtext to watch in Texas. If she comes back and wins Texas, that ad is going to get a lot of credit.</s>KING: And we have - that's a perfect lead in for us, Chris. Here's the ad and the response to the ad. Watch.</s>ANNOUNCER: It's 3:00 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. But there is a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military, someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world, it's 3:00 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?</s>SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.</s>ANNOUNCER: It's 3:00 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. There is a phone ringing in the White House. Something's happening in the world. When that call gets answered, shouldn't the president be the one, the only one who had judgment and courage to oppose the Iraq war from the start; who understood the real threat to America was Al- Qaeda in Afghanistan, not Iraq; who led the effort to secure loose weapons around the globe? In a dangerous world, it's judgment that matters.</s>OBAMA: I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.</s>KING: All right, Laura, who wins the battle of "3:00 a.m.?"</s>SCHWARTZ: Hillary would if that came out earlier, Larry. But I think it's a little too late at this stage in the game. And, Barack Obama, because he came out - the key word in his ad response was judgment. And he had the former Secretary of the Navy Danzig(ph) and he had Gen. McPeak from the Air Force Chief of Operations for Desert Storm come out and do conference calls about the judgment. When he gets that call, he will make the judgment.</s>HOLMES: And I think also, Larry, another problem with that is that again, she's switching her message. So we've been seeing her. It seems like she is flailing from she was the change candidate, she's the experience candidate. Now, you have her the fear candidate. And it seems like it's the same two kids that are asleep in America with both of these campaigns.</s>KING: Peter, who won that ad?</s>BEINART: I think the problem that Hillary Clinton has is that people don't think the world is as dangerous as they used to. This is not 2002 or 2004. If you look at the percentage of Americans who say that terrorism is the biggest concern, it's plummeted. And that has really made it easier for Barack Obama as a guy who doesn't have experience to run so strong. If people were really frightened, then I think that ad might work. But they are not frightened in the way they were a few years ago.</s>KING: David, how do you see that?</s>FRUM: I think there is a lot of truth in what Peter said. I think that ad only works on people who are already persuaded that Hillary is a credible commander-in-chief. I think to those who are not as impressed with her that the idea is - would say, well, I don't know. That beats the heck out of me. Whose ad is this anyway? It's Hillary Clinton's ad? And I think it is actually an ad for John McCain and I don't know why she wants to do that.</s>KING: And Chris, how do you see it?</s>CILLIZA: Well, you know, I think that David is exactly right. The danger Sen. Clinton runs into when she does something like this is Democrats will say she's giving Republicans talking points for the general election. She's giving them the blueprint. She's saying things in a race that is pretty much decided. That's the fine line with the Clintons - and I say the Clintons, because I think former President Clinton is very much wrapped up in this. It is a battle between winning this election which is - I don't want to say a long shot - but is much more difficult than it is for Barack Obama to win and managing their legacy. Remember, this is the family that entered the race as the first family in Democratic politics. They have that legacy to think about. If it looks like they savaged the eventual Democratic nominee, bloodied him to the point where John McCain can swoop in for the kill, that's going to be a very, very hard thing for the Clintons to explain to all those Democratic activists who is revered them before this campaign started.</s>KING: Up next, the Clinton versus Obama debate. Supporters of each will discuss issues and strategies, a surprise couple by the way. And then our panel will return. We'll be right back.</s>OBAMA: It seems like this change thing is catching on because everybody is talking about change now. Everybody is saying how they stand for change. But I want you to understand what real change is. Don't be fooled. Real change means saying what you mean and meaning what you say, not just during election time, but all the time.