Residents Of Florida Await Wilma; National Hurricane Center Wilma Briefing
HARRIS: ... for the briefing, the 11:00 briefing is underway.</s>RICHARD PASCH, HURRICANE SPECIALIST: ... down in Mexico, in the areas of Cozumel, Cancun, parts of the Yucatan peninsula are just experiencing a relentless continuation of hurricane force winds and extremely heavy rainfall. We really wish the best for the people who are down there because the conditions are still very bad down there right now. We anticipate the system will remain over the Yucatan Peninsula long enough during the day today such that it is anticipated to weaken a little bit more. Right now, maximum sustained winds are near 115 miles per hour meaning that Wilma is still a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson scale. We do anticipate a little bit more weakening during the day today. However as we get into the afternoon and evening hours, it's probable that the center of the hurricane will emerge back over water over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now as far as the forecast is concerned with regard to where the system is going to go, most of the models are still in very good agreement and our official forecast has been very consistent in anticipating this system to eventually cross somewhere over the southern Florida peninsula. But we can't be exact, of course on where the system is going to go. And it is imperative that people realize that where the exact center goes is important but it is not the entire story. The system as it accelerates off to the northeast towards Florida is expected to be a fairly large system and even if you don't get hurricane force winds in your area, tropical storm force winds are expected to impact a large area of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys. Now based on the latest forecast track which brings the system toward the Florida peninsula during the next couple of days, in the next 36 hours we believe the system will be close enough such that tropical storm force winds could begin to impact the Florida Keys. Because we want to give the residents of the Florida Keys at least 36 hours notice of tropical storm force winds arriving there for the purposes of preparation before the tropical storm force winds arrive, we have issued a hurricane watch at 11:00 a.m. for all of the Florida Keys including Florida Bay. We do anticipate especially if the system does not stall and it does continue to move offshore and our next forecast brings the system closer to the Florida coast in about 36 hours, that we will have to issue additional watches for the Florida peninsula later this afternoon. Regarding the intensity forecast. While Wilma has weakened overnight and is down to Category 3 right now, that's still a very formidable major hurricane and it could weaken a little bit more down to Category 2 before it emerges over the Gulf of Mexico. However, we do think there is an opportunity during the next day or so as it moves to the northeast over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico for it to intensify and perhaps regain Category 3 or maintain Category 3 status during the next day or day and a half. However, once it gets closer to the Florida peninsula, we think that the vertical wind shear will increase such that a weakening trend will begin as the system begins to accelerate over the Florida peninsula. Right now our best estimate is for a Category 2 hurricane to be approaching the Florida coastline within the next couple of days. However, we always urge people to plan for the possibility of one category stronger than we are forecasting. So there is still the outside chance that we could get Category 3 hurricane approaching the southwestern coast of Florida. Again hurricane watches may be required for the west coast of Florida later this afternoon. The timing remains very similar to what we have been forecasting during the last day or so in that Monday morning would be the time that the greatest impacts would arrive on the coast of Florida. But tropical storm force winds could arrive in the Florida Keys Sunday afternoon or evening and over the Florida peninsula perhaps late Sunday night or early Monday morning. The system will be accelerating and will likely pass over Florida during the day sometime on Monday. The timing is a little uncertain but that is the best estimate at this time. Now that the hurricane watches are up toward the Florida Keys, I think Billy Wagner from Monroe County would like to summarize what the Keys are doing in response to the latest forecast information.</s>BILLY WAGNER, MONROE COUNTY, FL: Thank you Rick. Good morning, everyone. We finally resumed mandatory evacuation process. This morning we had a mandatory evacuation order issued for all mobile homes throughout the Keys. We started out with special needs evacuations transporting those personnel up the bayou here in Miami. I might mention that here at FIU, we have our designated Red Cross shelter for all Monroe County residents. It's presently open. We have a few over 100 people there already. At noon, we will start our mandatory evacuation phased operation with an issuing order for all residents in the Key West area and extending up the Keys including the lower Keys to the seven mile bridge. At 3:00 we'll proceed with a mandatory evacuation order of the middle Keys which takes from seven mile bridge to the long key bridge and that's including the cities of Marathon and Key Colony Beach, Duck Key and Conch Key, and at 6:00, we'll extend those orders up to include all the upper Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge through Key Largo including Ocean Reef and Islamorada and the city of Layton. I want to be very clear on the closure of the bridges which will take place at noon today with the mandatory evacuation order. Those two bridges in the Keys that allow our Marine traffic to go back and forth at Snake Creek and Jewfish Creek will be locked down. So those bridges won't allow any traffic through and it will allow our over land evacuation to move smoothly. The sooner you can move and return to the mainland, the better off it is. Don't hesitate when we issue these orders. And anyone seeking information about the current events that we have scheduled this weekend and through next week, I recommend you can find that information on the web at flakeys.com. That's Florida, flakeys.com.</s>PASCH: OK, we're going to take some questions now. But before I do that, though, if I could I wanted to briefly mention that we did begin issuing advisories on the new tropical depression number 25 in the Caribbean Sea. Just briefly want to mention that we anticipate that will impact Hispaniola, Haiti, the Dominican Republic with some very heavy rainfall, that our forecast right now is for this to recurve (ph) ahead of Wilma before impacting the United States.</s>QUESTION: Jeff Burnside of NBC 6. Talk to us about the storm surges both in the Keys and also in the population centers in Ft. Lauderdale and Miami and because it comes from the west, why there's a distinction between the two storm surge forecasts.</s>PASCH: OK. The question has to do with storm surge, what is the potential impact of that on the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula both west and east coast. All right. We will refine the storm surge forecast as we get closer. Right now, we can talk in general terms about what the potential is. For a Category 2 hurricane approaching the southwestern Florida coast, there is the potential in some spots and it really highly depends on what part of the coast you're talking about. But in some spots there could be storm surge on the order of 10 to 13 feet. If it were to intensify or maintain a Category 3 intensity as it reaches the coast, those numbers could be higher. And exactly where the highest storm surge occurs depends highly upon where the center crosses the coast, how far out the national (ph) winds are from the center and so it's really too early right now to specify what surge you might expect in the Keys versus southwest Florida. We think the highest surge impact will be on the west coast and the Keys and much less on the east coast.</s>QUESTION: And Miami and Ft. Lauderdale then are somewhat protected because it's coming from the west?</s>PASCH: The impact of surge would be much less on the east coast of Florida than it would be on the west coast. There's sometimes can be due to the onshore flow of a departing system some storm surge caused by that. However, we think the system will be moving fairly quickly. So there probably won't be as much time to build up the surge on the onshore flow of the departing system as there would be for moving more slowly. Right now our biggest concern is for the Florida Keys and portions of southwest Florida. We will refine that forecast and really what people really need to do about storm surge is to pay attention to the instructions from their local officials because they are the ones who know what the specific impacts in different communities, different parts of the coastline are.</s>QUESTION: A lot of times hurricanes are defined either by their rain content or by their wind content. Which is Wilma?</s>PASCH: Wilma is a little bit of both. I would plan for the possibility of impacts of both strong winds, possibly obviously hurricane force winds would be possible near where the center crosses the coast and passes over the peninsula. Because it will be moving fairly quickly by the time it crosses Florida, hurricane force winds will probably not just be felt at the coast or in the Keys, but could propagate well inland or possibly even impact the east coast of Florida. Even though Wilma is expected to be moving fairly quickly over Florida, it still could produce rainfall totals of four to eight inches over the Florida Keys and parts of southern Florida. Isolated spots could be as high as 12 inches. So even though it will be moving fairly quickly, it still could be a significant rainmaker in part because it is such a large system.</s>PASCH: Well, whenever a system is moving faster rather than slower everything else considered equal that will slightly increase the wind speeds that you would experience from that storm. We take that into account when putting our forecasts out. So the wind speeds that we will put in our forecast and the anticipation of this will be a Category 2, again, with some uncertainty, takes into account the forward speed.</s>QUESTION: As it is crossing the state, say it is a cat two like you're anticipating and with additional wind speed by forward motion, will there be any weakening of the storm as it crosses the state from west to east?</s>PASCH: We think there will be a gradual weakening trend takes place as it approaches Florida and as it crosses the coast. However Category 2 or Category 1 hurricane, the difference between those two is probably not significant in terms of preparation. Either one is going to be very strong. It's a little uncertain what the intensity will be at landfall and because of the fact that it will probably be in a gradual weakening process we're not exactly certain what the intensity will be when it reaches the east coast of Florida compared to what it was on the west. But because we're moving fairly quickly, there probably won't be a whole lot of difference quite honestly and we should all be planning.</s>HARRIS: There you have it, the 11:45 briefing from the National Hurricane Center, just some of the highlights for you. This storm Wilma now a Category 3. It has weakened a bit since the time that we joined you this morning at 7:00 a.m., category 3 with 115 miles per hour winds. When we joined you this morning, it was still at 125-130 miles an hour winds. And as you know it has been battering the Yucatan peninsula, Cozumel, Cancun and I guess --</s>NGUYEN: It's hovering over the area.</s>HARRIS: Exactly, just sort of sitting there. But once it gets into, once it moves into the Gulf of Mexico again, it is expected to intensify a bit and pick up some speed.</s>NGUYEN: And they are expecting landfall Monday morning in Florida somewhere around a Category 2, but of course we're going to be watching and let you know what it is when it happens. 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