Increasing Tensions between U.S. and North Korea Examined
CABRERA: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Ana Cabrera. North Korea is threatening all-out war. That's a quote. If it's provoked by the U.S. The nation appeared to show off some new missiles that might have the ability to strike targets in the U.S. and Europe. President Trump tweeted this week, "If China won't reign in North Korea's nuclear program, the U.S. will." And he sent the U.S. aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson to the region as well. CNN's Will Ripley goes inside North Korea for a look at life under the reclusive leader Kim Jong-un who controlled just about everything and everyone in that nation. Watch.</s>WILL RIPLEY, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I've been to North Korea 11 times over the last few years. And every time you come here you hear that tensions between the U.S. and North Korea are high. But I have to say that this is the most tense that I have seen it during any time that I've visited the country. Whenever I come here, I always get a sense that there are two very different worlds, the world inside North Korea and the world outside. Inside, everything in this society revolves around the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and before him his father and grandfather. This is a society that is built up around its leadership. They hold their leaders up to the highest possible esteem. And it's very much in contrast with the view from the outside world that North Korea is erratic, unpredictable and moving on a dangerous path as they continue to nuclearize. In some ways, Pyongyang resembles many other cities, as an increasingly modern skyline, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has made it one of his initiatives to build more skyscrapers and public amenities in the city. In other ways, though, it's radically different. You hear music playing on loud speakers throughout the city all day. In the morning to wake people up. In the evening to put them to bed at night. There is patriotic music, people are marching, they're practicing for the huge mass celebrations that they often do for national holidays or to celebrate the achievements of their leader. And of course North Korea is one of the only places in the world where no matter who you ask, at least publicly you will never hear political dissent. Everybody will say that they are 100 percent behind their supreme leader. But given that Kim Jong-un has absolute power in this country, what else would they say?</s>CABRERA: And that was CNN's Will Ripley on what North Korea is like on a typical day but today of course not typical. It's a national holiday and the military paraded troops, tanks, rockets and missiles through Pyongyang, and past the country's leader Kim Jong-un. Let's bring in somebody who's a bit of an expert on the region. My friend here on the desk, former Australian prime minister and president of the Asia Society Policy Institute here in New York, Kevin Rudd. Mister Prime Minister, great to have you with us. Thanks so much. First, I just want to get your reaction to the video we've seen now, this parade with these missiles that they showed in the missile cases of sorts for this intercontinental ballistic missile.</s>KEVIN RUDD, PRESIDENT, ASIA SOCIETY: Well, I think we need to understand the fact that the North Koreans have been holding parades for a long time. And there have been missiles in those parades for a long time as well. So let's put it into a bit of context. Yes, these casings or mockups of missiles as you see them on parade.</s>CABRERA: You think they're mockups?</s>RUDD: Well, there's always a debate between the experts and others as to what's real and what's a mockup. But usually they are mockups. But to the extent to which they reflect substantial capabilities, yes, there are two sets of casings about two new developments in intercontinental ballistic missiles. The first there appears to be the presentation of a submarine launched ballistic missile. And also an interesting demonstrating what's called their ability to use solid fuel as opposed to liquid fuel. That meaning if you got solid fuel, fire the missiles, it means that they can be fired straight away. With liquid fuels, it takes awhile to load propellants which give satellite an opportunity to identify what you are doing.</s>CABRERA: So what we're seeing, if they do indeed have missiles that would go into these capsules, those would be the solid fuels which would make them more quick to be able to use.</s>RUDD: That's the key in point. I mean, let's wait for all the technical experts to pore over.</s>CABRERA: Yes.</s>RUDD: And give us the definitive. That ain't my box of tricks.</s>CABRERA: Gotcha.</s>RUDD: But I think that's what they're signaling to do.</s>CABRERA: OK.</s>RUDD: But let's put it all into context. North Koreans are masters at -- let's put it, international political stage.</s>CABRERA: They know how to put on the show.</s>RUDD: Yes. Yes. This is their version of Hollywood.</s>CABRERA: Now I'm curious if you are looking at this whole situation right now and seeing something different than we've seen at other times of heightened tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. Is it different to you?</s>RUDD: I think so. It's to do with things other than what we have seen at the parade. It's to do with, A, the fact that they have done five nuclear tests. They got a lot of nuclear materials to put into bombs. Last year or so they've done 37 missile tests. Then moving more to what I've described as deployment stage. And then the open question is, when can you miniaturize the nuclear material, put it on the end of a warhead?</s>CABRERA: Yes.</s>RUDD: And land it with reasonable accuracy. Other than South Korea or Japan, Guam, or elsewhere? That's the key question. But the pace of that has been increasing which is why the United States and President Trump have been right to react firmly to this.</s>CABRERA: So you think that tough talk is a good thing.</s>RUDD: Well, look, who can influence the outcome here? Probably three countries really, North Korea themselves, the United States and People's Republic of China. And so the United States is seized with the gravitas of this, which is it is a real and emerging existential threat. The ability of the North Koreans to target and land a missile with a nuclear warhead. Under a leadership which is at best unpredictable. So the question there is what do you do about it? The administration's policies as I see it is got -- its subjective being nuclearization, it's applying maximum pressure in order to bring that about and that's both military pressure like you see with the Carl Vinson deployment but also diplomatic pressure on the Chinese.</s>CABRERA: Right.</s>RUDD: In order to induce a strongest set of measures out of Beijing in order to cause substantive behavior change in Pyongyang.</s>CABRERA: And that is the key. How do you best influence the Chinese or leverage the Chinese? Right? Because I have been talking to different experts on this issue. Everyone points to China as maybe the key players of this three-way relationship, the U.S., North Korea and China. We know that China is the lifeline as far as the economy in North Korea goes. North Korea needs China but does China really need North Korea?</s>RUDD: Well, what the Chinese want is not for North Korea to collapse. What they want is not for there to be an immediate unification with the South. The way you roll that back into your description of the three players is really like going back to school and putting Venn diagrams on the -- on the board and seeing which of these they can fit. U.S. interest, Chinese interest, and then you've got those of North Korea itself. And can you find interlocking points of interest? From the U.S. point of interview, I think what President Trump has done successfully through the Mar-a-Lago summit is demonstrate to President Xi Jinping that for the U.S. this is a bottom line concern for him and to the U.S. national security policy establishment. It's not just business as usual. For the Chinese, you see some increase in the tempo of their language and behavior towards the DPRK. But the big question will be, if the North now proceeds with another nuclear test, or another set of missile test, what will the Chinese then do? And that's when the debate opens up about can they begin to take measures to reduce their level of oil exports to North Korea?</s>CABRERA: They have said this week that that's what they would plan to do, that they had warned North Korea that that could happen.</s>RUDD: Well, already they have turned back coal imports from North Korea, and that's consistent with previously agreed U.N. Security Council sanctions. But as for new measures, the oil thing will be a big play. It's happened once before temporarily way back in 2006 for a few days. For the Chinese to do this more comprehensively would actually go to crude oil, refined petroleum, jet fuel, aviation fuel, the sort of things which actually go to turn the wheels in North Korea.</s>CABRERA: That's interesting. Real fast, before we let you go, too, I'm curious of what you make of some of the -- the sort of friendly rhetoric we're hearing out from President Trump which seemed to be a major flip-flop from what he was saying about China specifically on the campaign trail. You know, he had this -- the summit at Mar-a-Lago with the president of China. And since then he's talked about how they had good chemistry, that they this week had a good phone call. He seems to kind of be chummy in some ways. Do you think he's trying to deploy this positive reinforcement strategy, saying nice things about China, maybe they will want to do what the U.S. wants them to do?</s>RUDD: I think a lot of people was critical of the President Trump in the lead-up to the Mar-a-Lago summit. Frankly the outcome from U.S.' interest point of view and ally interest around the world has been pretty positive. That's kind of my assessment. We are looking at China's relationship for 35 years in various capacities over years. And what I'd say is this. President Trump with North Korea and denuclearization as the core objective, is now I think seeking to maximize what he can do with Xi Jinping to bring about material change. If that means a better line of political communication and post Mar-a-Lago, well, that's to the good. Does that mean bringing about substantive changes in Chinese behavior towards the North Koreans? That's what he's seeking to do. We're at the beginning of what I describe as a longer process. There will be spikes in this, for example, if the North Koreans do proceed in the not-too-farthest future to launch -- to conduct another nuclear test or a series of missile tests. But the key objective as I see it right now of American diplomacy across the various means available to them, military and diplomatic and political, is to bring about substantive change now in Chinese behavior.</s>CABRERA: Right.</s>RUDD: And surprising, President Trump is trying to keep the phone lines open.</s>CABRERA: All right. We'll see what happens. Thanks so much, Kevin Rudd. Great to have you on.</s>RUDD: Good to meet you.</s>CABRERA: Really nice to meet you. All right. I want -- as we heard to break right now -- take you to Berkeley, California. These are some live pictures. You can see clashes are happening between pro and anti-Trump supporters. And those who don't like what the administration is doing. They are clashing. You can see law enforcement trying to get in the middle there, break some of those heightened tensions on the ground up here in the U.S. At least four people have been arrested we are told. We're working to get more information here and we'll bring it to you as we get it. Up next, two police incidents on opposite sides of the country both on tape and both causing a firestorm over police behaviors. We'll show you much of this in a moment. But first, Ebola, Zika, bird flu, recent outbreaks of these deadly diseases have claimed thousands of lives. And the worst might be yet to come. CNN's new original film "UNSEEN ENEMY" looks at where the next outbreak might come from and what we can do to stop it.</s>DR. LARRY BRILLIANT, EPIDEMIOLOGIST: Over the last three decades there have been about 30 newly emerging diseases that have the potential to be pandemics. If we do nothing, it's not a matter of if there will be a global pandemic, it's just a matter of when and which virus and how bad.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The world changes around us at increasing speed. We cause a lot of that change. Migrating to cities, stripping the earth of its resources and altering primeval jungle.