This Week in Politics: South Carolina Voters Go to the Polls
GENE RANDALL, CNN ANCHOR: The polls close in South Carolina in just under two hours. The results of this day's voting will tell us a lot about the shape of the Republican presidential race and perhaps how it is likely to end up. If George W. Bush manages to stop John McCain's New Hampshire momentum, the Texas governor could be well on his way to the GOP nomination. If McCain gets the turnout he needs to win in the Palmetto State, the air could go out of the Bush balloon even more quickly than the money he is spending. And today, we, of course, focus on South Carolina and its high- stakes GOP Primary. For some answers on what it all means, we turn to Kurt Anderson, a former political director for the Republican National Committee, now a political consultant; and Tony Fabrizio, who served as pollster and chief strategist for Republican presidential candidate Bob Dole in 1996. He too is a political consultant. Neither man is aligned with a presidential candidate this year -- at least not yet. Have we in the media at all overstated the importance of South Carolina, Mr. Anderson?</s>KURT ANDERSON, FORMER RNC POLITICAL DIRECTOR: No. In fact, a lot of us in the Republican Party kept thinking, well, this won't be South Carolina's year. And as it turns out, it very much is South Carolina's year. I think it's a clear situation where if McCain were to win South Carolina, he would be -- he would be the clear favorite for and maybe well on his way to the nomination. And so it's almost higher stakes for Governor Bush. But it has all come down to South Carolina in some regards.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fabrizio, does a win in South Carolina automatically put the winner in the driver's seat with states like Michigan and Arizona coming up?</s>TONY FABRIZIO, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: In the Bush case, a win in South Carolina means that Bush now needs to win in Michigan as well. If he wins in Michigan, I think that clearly puts him in the driver's seat as we head on to March 7th. McCain, if he wins today, I think, as you said in your intro, deflates the Bush balloon significantly. And I think we could see some serious defections from the Bush campaign starting early next week. And McCain would go on to win Michigan.</s>ANDERSON: I think if McCain wins today. he's the likely nominee. I think if Bush wins today, a lot is riding on Michigan. And I think the nature of Michigan is that McCain could actually lose today in South Carolina and win in Michigan.</s>RANDALL: Given the elements it would take for a John McCain victory in South Carolina, how would the Republican Party establishment look at that victory?</s>ANDERSON: South Carolina is teed up perfectly for Governor Bush in every respect. It's a Southern state, it really is an establishment-controlled state, and it's also a state where they tend to go for the most conservative candidate who can win.</s>RANDALL: So if McCain wins in South Carolina, Tony Fabrizio, what would that tell the party establishment?</s>FABRIZIO: It would tell the party establishment at some level that there is a resiliency of McCain's message and that the focus will be on the number of independents and Democrats that McCain has attracted to this party or have attracted to vote for him. And I think what it would also do is it would undermine forever the power of the establishment in South Carolina, which has been sought after in every presidential contest in the last 20 years.</s>RANDALL: Whether McCain wins or loses in his quest for the nomination, given how he is attempting to do it, outside the Republican Party establishment, will the face of the GOP have changed because of his efforts, Mr. Anderson?</s>ANDERSON: I'm not certain about that. I mean, a lot of the McCain approach, obviously with his reference to reform and all of that, really does appeal to -- there's a huge element in the Republican Party who feels like every four years they wake up and it's Groundhog Day all over again, where we're running the same campaign, whether it's from '92 or '96. And there's really a huge disaffected element that is tired of being told how to vote. So I'm not sure that it will change it all that much.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fabrizio?</s>FABRIZIO: I look at it, and I say that at the end of the day, while McCain's message tapped into a vein among Republicans, an anti- Washington vein inside Republicans, there is a deep anti-Washington vein in Republicans. And just because we control Congress, everybody presumes that Republicans love Washington. I think McCain tapped into that and was able to reach across the aisle to Democrats and independents. I will tell you one thing that will change. And that is because Bush has had such a hard challenge, you'll notice that Bush in the national polls has started -- his lead has been cut against Al Gore. And that is as a result of George Bush redefining himself not as a compassionate conservative but as a conservative, period.</s>RANDALL: There has been -- go ahead, Mr. Anderson.</s>ANDERSON: Well, I'm not entirely certain on that. I think that the huge irony of this campaign to me is this: The Bush campaign, which has an unprecedented amount of money -- and I give them absolute credit for that -- and has all the -- everything going in their favor, has really ended up in a situation where whether or not they get pulled out of the fire in South Carolina and Michigan is whether or not they can galvonize the conservatives and the pro-lifers and those groups who are really doing the heavy lifting for them to try to save them in South Carolina and Michigan right now.</s>RANDALL: Has this very divisive battle in South Carolina been good for the Republican Party, Mr. Fabrizio?</s>FABRIZIO: These primaries are always good for the Republican Party. They're good for any party. I think what it does is it allows people to choose who they want to lead their party. Because whoever we choose at the end of the day is going to be the leader of the party. I think what we've seen is that John McCain message of reform and anti-Washington and anti-politician has resonance. And I think the party powers that be will take note of that and look for that in the general election.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Anderson?</s>ANDERSON: I think it's always good when have you a competitive primary. I know everybody gets upset because people are hitting each our, but there 's so many people that it looks like may come out and vote in South Carolina today, and I think the same will happen in Michigan, and voter participation is something that we all are concerned about. And I think it's a huge plus for the party to have this many people voting in their primaries.</s>RANDALL: Now there has been so much harsh rhetoric in this campaign, especially in South Carolina. But when it comes to issues, don't McCain and Bush really share much more than issues on which they disagree, Mr. Fabrizio?</s>FABRIZIO: Oh, I would say that if you had to put what they believe against each other, you'd probably find out that they stack up close to 90 or 95 percent. And I think what you're seeing is a focus on the things where they don't agree totally on: the tax plan, Bush saying he's a reformer with results, McCain saying he's really the reformer. And so the real -- the difference are very, very -- they're more shades of gray than they are anything else. Although, the Bush people have been successful in tagging the McCain people as being more like Al Gore and Bill Clinton in their approach to tax cuts than they are Republicans.</s>RANDALL: If McCain does not manage to win, both in South Carolina and the nomination, will there be a lesson there, Mr. Anderson, for Republicans who try to take on the party establishment?</s>ANDERSON: Well, I think the lesson will be that he almost did it. And I think it will probably be a positive lesson. And I think that it's really a healthy thing. I mean, whether or not all Republicans agree with John McCain on every issue, it's been a tremendously healthy thing to say, hey, there's a lot of new blood in this party. There's a lot of people who aren't just the same old people who could get involved and maybe have some success.</s>FABRIZIO: I take exception to that. I think today's results are going to be very telling. I think John McCain did an excellent job in New Hampshire and he won Republican votes. If George Bush is successful today, it will be by and large because he was able to beat John McCain handily among Republicans. And I think the lesson that will be learned is that John McCain had a message of reform and anti- Washington that attracted new people to the party, Democrats and independents, that didn't become Republicans. They just voted in our primary.</s>RANDALL: Now what's the potential problem for a George W. Bush, who's had trouble attracting independent support. And in states where there's crossover voting, Democratic support. Is that a problem for the full?</s>ANDERSON: Well, I think a problem for this campaign for him has been that the argument was, why are you for Bush? Well, I'm for Bush because he's going to win. And that's not enough to sustain you through any campaign. And that really -- I know they've talked about other things, but that's what's come through. If you ask the average voter, well, why are you for Bush? Well, he's the winner, isn't he? And they didn't put enough behind that to hold him up. Once it didn't become obvious that he's the winner, what did he have to fall back on?</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fabrizio, you get the final word on this.</s>FABRIZIO: I think that the important lesson of 2000 is John McCain's candidacy shows the power of message and not the power of inevitably. And I think John McCain's message was so powerful that it overcame money and inevitability and has the front-runner basically on his knees in South Carolina.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Fabrizio and Mr. Anderson, thank you very much.</s>FABRIZIO: Thank you, Gene.</s>RANDALL: We know you'll be tuned to CNN tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time. In a moment, once the corner has turned in South Carolina, will there be a bit more attention on the Democratic race for president -- you remember, Al Gore and Bill Bradley? Stay with us.</s>RANDALL: Given the political spotlight of the past few weeks, a line from Monty Python seems appropriate: Now for something completely different -- the Democratic presidential campaign. And there is no one better suited to talk about that than Democratic consultant Mark Seigel, also a professor of political science at George Washington University. Well, professor Seigel, what's the South Carolina race done to the Democratic race for president? Some say it's disappeared from the radar screens.</s>PROFESSOR MARK SEIGEL, DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT: I think it's done two fundamental things. One, because there is no intervening political variable for the Democrats between February 1st and March 7th, all attention did switch to the Republicans, which made it extremely difficult for Bradley to sustain any interest in his candidacy.</s>RANDALL: So bring us up to date on the race? Where does it stand at the moment?</s>SEIGEL: The next series of contests in the Democratic Party are going to take place on March 7th in 15 states, 15 very, very important states. And Bill Bradley, unlike John McCain, didn't have a chance to sustain momentum, to win anything between New Hampshire and those March 7th states. And he looked like at one point he was going to have a real chance in the Northeast, in New York and New England and Maryland and even possibly in Washington state and California. And very few people think that's the case now.</s>RANDALL: Not long ago, Bradley was talking about taking his fight for the nomination all the way to the Democratic national convention. But particularly speaking, isn't March 7th do or die for him?</s>SEIGEL: Yes, and I think his own people realize that. The Democratic Party has 18 percent of its delegates selected ex officio their party leaders, and they're overwhelmingly for Al Gore. Bill Bradley arithmetically as of March 7th almost won't be able to have that nomination, even if he wins every delegate from that point on. I think if he doesn't win significantly in the Northeast and some places outside of the Northeast on March 7th, then I think on March 8th he'll probably withdraw from this race.</s>RANDALL: Is there at this point a conventional Democratic Party wisdom about which candidate Al Gore would like to face least if he's to be the nominee?</s>SEIGEL: I think in terms of conventional wisdom, we've heard a lot of not wanting to run against John McCain.</s>RANDALL: Is part of that mind-gaming?</s>SEIGEL: I don't think so. I think it's probably genuine, because it's unpredictable. We don't know what kind of candidate he would be in a general election. And he does -- he did -- obviously there was great support among independents in New Hampshire, maybe today in South Carolina as well, and he may have some attraction for Democrats. But fundamentally, what South Carolina has done is it's forced George Bush, who I think will be the inevitable nominee -- the eventual nominee of the party, to spend his time reinforcing his Republican base, that is, his right-wing bonafidees. And if Al Gore has been running a campaign for 60 percent of the electorate, George Bush has been focusing on 40 percent of the electorate. It's going to be very, very hard for him now to jump back into the center, and the longer this race goes on among Republicans, the more difficult it will be.</s>RANDALL: When did this competitive race between Al Gore and Bill Bradley turn, in most people's minds, into an Al Gore race? What is it that the vice president did and when did he do it to make this happen?</s>SEIGEL: He defined himself in a very positive way, what he would be. And simultaneously, Bradley's message was unclear. I mean, he was saying things like, we have to think big on issues like race and poverty, but Al Gore is perceived to be someone who's a leader on the issues of race and poverty. This is the -- this race has the structure of a challenge to an incumbent, and Bradley really has given the Democrats no reason to fire their leader, Al Gore.</s>RANDALL: In a few seconds, will the Democrats get at least a share of the spotlight now with South Carolina having been completed -- or it will be completed in two hours?</s>SEIGEL: Yes, on March 7th and March 8th, Al Gore will be the nominee of the party, and then we'll start fighting a general election campaign against the Republicans.</s>RANDALL: Mr. Seigel, thanks very much.</s>SEIGEL: Pleasure.</s>RANDALL: Thanks for being with us. When we come back, we'll go to South Carolina and talk to Lee Bandy of "The State" newspaper, so stay with us.</s>RANDALL: To Columbia, South Carolina now, and Lee Bandy of "The State" newspaper. Lee, you know that state well. Who's voting today and in what numbers?</s>LEE BANDY, "THE STATE": Well, I know that the independents are turning out in large number, and of course, as expected, the Republican are turning not huge numbers. But there are not that many Democrats turning out, and that bodes ill for John McCain.</s>RANDALL: If Bush wins today, Lee, what will have done it for him?</s>BANDY: He ran the right kind of campaign in South Carolina. You cannot run in a Republican primary down here without appealing to the Republican vote. You cannot win the Republican primary down here appealing solely to independents and Democrats.</s>RANDALL: So in the end, the firewall will have withstood the test?</s>BANDY: It has withstood the test, and Bush can go on.</s>RANDALL: Lee, are there lasting lessons to be drawn from this campaign in South Carolina this year, if George W. Bush does what the pre-election polls said that he would do and win the primary?</s>BANDY: Well, it couldn't get any better than this one. It was a good, hot contest and very close. But even though the Republican Party establishment down here pulled another one out of the fire for their candidate, a lot of problems still remain in the Republican Party down here. This race left a lot of sharp divisions and wounds.</s>RANDALL: And were there new demographics at work in South Carolina this year? And does that bode -- does that have a message for the future?</s>BANDY: Well, the ground definitely has shifted here, and the voters are more mainstream and we have lot of independents. The greatest growing sector in this state is the independents.</s>RANDALL: And how would you characterize South Carolina's role this year, Lee, when all is said and done?</s>BANDY: I think, again, South Carolina has settled the contest.</s>RANDALL: And do you think the message will translate itself to Michigan and Arizona and states beyond?</s>BANDY: Well, I'm not as familiar with Michigan, although I understand the polls up there show McCain leading Bush. What kind of bump Bush will get out of here is not certain, but I would think that Bush needs to continue winning. But South Carolina has always sent the candidate on to the nomination, and it's going to be interesting to whether it does again this year.</s>RANDALL: Lee Bandy of "The State" newspaper in South Carolina, thanks very much, Lee.