Gallup Poll: Al Gore Edging Ahead of George W. Bush
CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: We have a first in campaign 2000. Until now, the presidential race has been a statistical dead heat, but that is beginning to change.</s>LINDA STOUFFER, CNN ANCHOR: The numbers are very interesting. The CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup poll that tracks the race day by day now has Al Gore beginning to edge ahead of George W. Bush. We want to get the latest on the numbers from Gallup's editor in chief, Frank Newport. Good morning, Frank.</s>FRANK NEWPORT, GALLUP POLL EDITOR IN CHIEF: Good morning. That's right. You know, statistics are statistics, but when we do our tests, we have found that when we averaged the last six days across, it's kind of crossed that threshold into statistical significance for Al Gore. But keep in mind that these things do go up and down. And we'll keep monitoring it and see what happens. Let's put this in context for you. I think this is a good way to look at it among likely voters. Back in June and July, the red line was higher. That's George W. Bush, 48 to 40 over Al Gore. And that was kind of what happened pre-conventions. Now, coming out of the conventions of late August, it was tied 46-46. And then when we started tracking on Labor Day, the fourth through the sixth of September, Gore had moved ahead about 47 to 44. It's kind of gone up and down since then, but in our most recent aggregate of three days through the 12th, you can see that yellow line is 49 percent for Al Gore. The red line has gone down. That's George W. Bush at 41, so that's an 8-point lead. The basic point is, if you track the yellow line, it's gone up, the red line has gone down, and that's where we're at a point now where Al Gore is ahead of George W. Bush, at least as of Tuesday night, which was the 12th of September. As I mentioned, we're tracking it every night. Now, here's how Al Gore is doing it right now. It's very interesting. Among Republicans, Bush has about 90 percent. Among Democrats, Gore has about 90 percent. So they've both solidified their bases. Here in the middle, this is this independent group that's so much at play, and here you can see Gore has that 43-31 lead over George W. Bush. So you put it all together, there are a few more Democrats in our likely voter sample, Independents. You do the math and you end up at a point where Al Gore is ahead of George W. Bush, at least for right now. One other point we thought was interesting: Is this election gathering the attention or garnering the attention of Americans? Well, way back in September of '96, 58 percent of Americans said they were paying quite a lot of attention. Fast forward to this week, almost the same number. So right now, about as many people are paying attention as was the case four years ago, which predicts maybe about the same turnout. That's where the public stands, but we're monitoring it day by day. Linda, Carol, back to you.</s>LIN: All right, thank you very much, Frank. Boy, and turnout was only 48 percent.