Campaign Countdown; 'State of the Ballot'
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome back, everybody. It's just about half past the hour on this AMERICAN MORNING. Another incredibly busy day for both candidates. Coming up in just a few moments, we're going to check back in with both campaigns, get reaction to some of the stories out this morning, like this videotape we're talking about of U.S. soldiers apparently inspecting explosives in Iraq before those explosives disappeared. A big issue on the campaign trail.</s>BILL HEMMER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, that's right. Also in the next 30 minutes, in fact in a couple of minutes away now, many Americans doubt that this year's election will go off without a major hitch, a problem that could drag into November 3rd, 4th, 5th...</s>O'BRIEN: Something you know a little bit about.</s>HEMMER: That's right. Jeff Toobin is back with us in a moment, looking at scenarios for legal challenges and also how close does it have to be in order to challenge a vote in a particular state. So, we'll talk to Jeff in a few moments about that.</s>O'BRIEN: All right. But first, let's get a look at what's going on in the news. Heidi Collins at the news desk this morning. Hello. Good morning again.</s>HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And good morning to you guys. And good morning to you, everyone. We want to get straight to the latest on the situation with Yasser Arafat. We are getting some live pictures coming in to us now of Yasser Arafat's plane. This is the area in which he will be coming down, going to Paris, as you may have heard earlier this morning, to be treated for a blood disorder. We're going to get some more information on that for you and let you know about it just as soon as we can. To other news now, U.S. forces are reportedly preparing for major assaults in the Iraqi cities of Fallujah and Ramadi. American troops pounded a suspected safe house in Fallujah overnight. The military says it was a targeted assault on suspected militant Abu Musab al- Zarqawi. Two people were reportedly killed in that attack. Dozens of people recovering in southern Thailand after a series of early-morning bombings there. Crews were cleaning up from one blast when a second bomb went off just 40 minutes later. At least 20 people are wounded, mostly police. It's not clear, though, who is responsible. There is some speculation Muslim extremists are present in that region. Here in the United States, Mark Hacking will face arraignment today in connection with the death of his wife, Lori. Her body was found in a Salt Lake City landfill earlier this month after an intensive search that spanned months. Mark Hacking is charged with murder and obstruction of justice. He is expected to plead not guilty. The nation's oldest civil rights group is reportedly under investigation now for taking sides in the election. According to reports, the IRS is reviewing the tax-exempt status of the NAACP because of claims that its chairman criticized President Bush during a speech at the group's national convention in July. Under tax laws, charities are not allowed to support specific parties in campaigns. Back over to you -- Bill and Soledad.</s>O'BRIEN: All right, Heidi, thank you very much. We are just four days away until the presidential election. The big question this morning: Are those missing explosives in Iraq affecting voters' decisions before they cast their ballots? Joining us to discuss this issue from Arlington, Virginia, is deputy communications director for the Bush campaign, Jennifer Millerwise. Nice to see you, Jennifer. Good morning.</s>JENNIFER MILLERWISE, DEP. COMM. DIR., BUSH CAMPAIGN: Thank you. It's good to be with you.</s>O'BRIEN: Thank you. From Washington, D.C., Chad Clanton. He's a senior adviser to the Kerry campaign.</s>CHAD CLANTON, SR. ADVISOR, KERRY CAMPAIGN: Good morning.</s>O'BRIEN: Now I can hear you. I don't -- there you are. Hi, Chad. Good morning to you. Let's get right into it. Good morning.</s>O'BRIEN: Jennifer, we're going to start with you. The videotape now is showing apparently these explosives, showing the troops inspecting them. So they clearly were there when the explosives were there. Doesn't this completely contradict what President Bush has been saying on the campaign trail, Jennifer?</s>MILLERWISE: Well, no, it doesn't. Because the fact is, Soledad, we don't know all of the facts. For every story that's out there, there is really information that contradicts it. For example, this tape, we don't know exactly where it was taken. What we do know is it certainly does show the types of weapons and explosives that were all over Iraq. They were in houses. They were in farms. They were in schools. They were in mosques. And we have destroyed or are in the process of destroying over 400,000 tons of these.</s>O'BRIEN: So, you're saying that that's not the Al Qaqaa area?</s>MILLERWISE: We still don't know. I know that I was listening to Paul Bremer just a little bit ago. He was saying that he was there and he was on the ground. We don't know whether or not that that's where this video comes from. The Pentagon yesterday put out a satellite photo of trucks sitting outside of the Al Qaqaa location right before the war began. We know that Saddam Hussein had a real track record of always moving these weapons and explosives when he thought they were going to be discovered.</s>O'BRIEN: But there is videotape of American troops with what the former chief U.N. weapons inspector says was definitively HMX. So, my question to you would be, if it wasn't seized or protected by the U.S. troops, doesn't the administration take the blame on that?</s>MILLERWISE: No. I think what you're missing is this. What you said is this is pictures of HMX. HMX was all over the country. That's the point. The point is, John Kerry has attacked on the very thing he said that Iraq wasn't a threat, that these kinds of weapons were not a threat. That has consistently been his position, at least since the presidential primary was over. And so, what we're seeing now is, as the facts come out, he's suddenly saying, oh, whoa, wait, this is a real problem. What we're seeing is desperation here.</s>MILLERWISE: These are a threat. This is really unbelievable.</s>O'BRIEN: Chad, why do you think this is desperation? Why doesn't she have a point, which is there are lots of questions? Even when you talk to the chief U.N. weapons inspector, he says everything is not known.</s>CLANTON: Well, I think that's the real scandal here. The president did not know what happened over there, yet he still refuses to come before the American people and tell us what happened, what's the plan to deal with this. This is 380 tons of high-grade explosives that have presumably gone into the hands of the enemy. We have the president's chief weapons inspector, David Kay, who was just on your program. He said that this is a conclusive proof of what happened over there. We had a local news report that showed footage that you referred to earlier. Yet the president continues to refuse to take responsibility. You know, President Reagan...</s>O'BRIEN: Well, you know...</s>CLANTON: Let me make one point. President Reagan, when the Marine barracks were bombed, took full responsibility. He said, as your president, I take responsibility for the bad as well as the good. This president isn't doing this. And I think it's going to really hurt him on November the 2nd.</s>O'BRIEN: What the videotape seems to show is the troops examining and not securing necessarily this HMX, at least according to David Kay. So, then is Senator Kerry blaming the troops?</s>CLANTON: Absolutely not. In fact, I want to read what one of the president's chief spokespersons, Mayor Rudy Giuliani, said yesterday about this. He said, no matter how hard you try to blame it on the president, the actual responsibility for it really would be for the troops that were there. Now that's wrong. Of course, John Kerry would never do that. Let's hope the president of the United States won't do that. But we don't know.</s>O'BRIEN: Why is that wrong? Why is that wrong?</s>CLANTON: Because the president...</s>O'BRIEN: We see pictures of the troops. They break the seal. And what David Kay said was, you know, referring back to the pottery barn rule. You break the seal, you own it in a war zone. So, why isn't that the blame of the troops?</s>CLANTON: Because the buck has to stop somewhere. And, again, I think that's the scandal here; that we have a White House that says the buck stops over there.</s>MILLERWISE: But, Soledad...</s>CLANTON: Not just over there, but way over there. We need a president who will take responsibility. I think it's a big difference between Bush and Kerry.</s>O'BRIEN: Jennifer, go ahead.</s>MILLERWISE: Soledad, if I can get in here.</s>O'BRIEN: Yes, go ahead.</s>MILLERWISE: Soledad, this is what we have. We do not know the facts yet. We don't know if this was the facility or not the facility. We do know that there were weapons. We know they were everywhere. We know that this president has said that these weapons were a threat. We know John Kerry has said that they aren't. We also know that before the ink was even dry on "The New York Times" story earlier this week, John Kerry said, hey, I'm going to roll the dice, I don't know what the facts are, I don't care what the facts are. I'm going to attack the military. Because you know what? Hopefully the facts will come out before Election Day.</s>CLANTON: That's the silliest thing I've ever heard.</s>O'BRIEN: I believe, Jennifer, he was attacking the president, who he's running against.</s>MILLERWISE: That is irresponsible and that is why he should not be the commander-in-chief.</s>O'BRIEN: I think he was attacking the president, if I'm not mistaken.</s>CLANTON: Thank you.</s>O'BRIEN: You guys, we're out of time actually. But obviously this is a debate that's going to continue to rage on as the campaign comes down to these last couple days.</s>CLANTON: It's going to hurt the president, Soledad. It's going to hurt the president.</s>MILLERWISE: It's irresponsible, very irresponsible.</s>O'BRIEN: We will finish there, Jennifer and Chad, thank you very much -- Bill.</s>MILLERWISE: Thank you.</s>HEMMER: Soledad, it's now 22 minutes before the hour. Even before Election Day, there have been a number of legal challenges all across the country over issues regarding ballots. And now we know lawyers for both campaigns are at-the-ready, watching and waiting to see what happens next Tuesday. Well, just what will it take to actually challenge Election Day voting in the courts? Back to our senior legal analyst, Jeffrey Toobin, back with us here this morning. Good morning to you.</s>JEFFERY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Good morning, sir.</s>HEMMER: We call it the margin of litigation.</s>TOOBIN: The margin of litigation.</s>HEMMER: How close does it have to be?</s>TOOBIN: It's a phrase that I think you may well hear a lot over the next 72 hours or a few more days than that. Basically, what is the margin of the vote in any given state that will justify one party or the other going into court? The margin of litigation. How close does it have to be before you sue?</s>HEMMER: And can we say how much it is? Is that a legal question or a political question?</s>TOOBIN: Well, I think it's much more a political question, although obviously there is a legal component. You know, many states have recount statutes, that if it's within 1 percent or if it's within .5 percent, there is an automatic recount. But even beyond that, remember, we have the famous provisional ballots that we've talked about. In Ohio, obviously a big state, in 2000 there were 125,000 provisional ballots cast, 90 percent of which were actually counted in the final totals. If one side or the other is ahead or behind by 10,000 votes and there are 125,000 provisional ballots uncounted, why in the world would anyone concede?</s>HEMMER: Very true. And it takes the time to count up those provisional ballots. And then you've got the issue of absentee overseas ballots that may come in as well.</s>TOOBIN: Absolutely. And in Ohio you have a situation where there are 88 counties, each of which is allowed its own procedures to decide how to count them. So that could be 88 different recounts going on where they fight over every ballot.</s>HEMMER: Here is the other issue that many people, I think, see from afar. There are so many attorneys out there looking for something. Chances are they're going to find something, right?</s>TOOBIN: Absolutely. I mean, when you send, as the Democrats are, between 10,000 and 15,000 attorneys out there, it's not a question of whether they find something, it's where and when. Attorneys are genetically predisposed to find controversy. And I think something to keep an eye on is this is not going to wait until the polls close on Tuesday. I guarantee you that on Tuesday, during the day, while the polls are open, there will be lawyers going to court seeking injunctions, saying, get those people away from the polls, let people vote. The controversy will start right after the polls open, not after they close.</s>HEMMER: And so, ultimately we're looking at turnout to see about the polling stations. How long is it going to take? Are people going to wait six hours to cast a ballot in some cases where it may be on Tuesday? We'll have to see about that. The other thing, though, is margin of victory. And what is the vote difference between each man in these critical states that may or may not determine recounts?</s>TOOBIN: Well, I think a lot of it has to do with how many provisional votes are outstanding. But I think, you know, our pal, Mr. Greenfield, has a phrase.</s>HEMMER: Yes?</s>TOOBIN: He says, your own guy, when your own guys tell you to give up, that's when they're going to give up.</s>HEMMER: Got it.</s>TOOBIN: If the Democratic leaders, if the Joe Bidens of the world say to John Kerry, you know, it's over, that's when the margin of litigation is too big. If the Richard Lugars, if the Pete Domenicis, the elders of the Republican Party say to George Bush, you know, stop fighting, that's really going to matter more than any legal fight.</s>HEMMER: Thank you, Jeff. Talk to you later.</s>TOOBIN: See you later.</s>HEMMER: OK. Next Tuesday night, tune in to CNN for complete minute-by-minute results of that presidential race. Our primetime coverage starts at 7:00 Eastern time. We are live in Times Square at the Nasdaq Marketsite. It should be a great night --Soledad.</s>O'BRIEN: Weather now.</s>HEMMER: In a moment here, if you watch the Washington Redskins on Sunday, it might help you predict the winner of Tuesday's race. They say it's true. Andy has got that in a moment here.</s>O'BRIEN: Plus, Jamie Foxx plays a legend in "Ray." But will the role make Foxx a legend in his own right? "90-Second Pop" digs into the weekend's new movies, just ahead. Stay with us.