A Private Moment with the President
E.D. HILL, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: The dramatic events over the last few days have a lot of people wondering, some wondering, about how much of the impact the killing of Osama bin Laden will have on the 2012 presidential election. Well, the best person to ask in the business is Larry Sabato. He is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Larry, good to talk to you again.</s>LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UNIV. OF VA. CENTER FOR POLITICS: Thank you,</s>E.D. HILL: So, we've got a new poll out, says the president is looking better than ever in terms of his approval rating. Does this mean anything?</s>SABATO: Yes, it does mean something. Obviously short term he can take this political capital and spend it, maybe on the deficit and debt, maybe on some other foreign policy issues. You know, for the long run, you know as well as I do, all bumps fade and they generally fade pretty quickly, within weeks or months. But, you know, there's one aspect that will last. I think the Republicans had been planning on using national security policy as a secondary attack on Obama after the economy. It's more difficult to do that now. He's had a major national security success that eluded his predecessor, President Bush.</s>HILL: Well, if we take a look at this particular poll, the Quinnipiac poll comes out and it shows that the president's approval rating goes up six points to 52 percent from the previous week. The disapproval, I think that's just as important, goes down eight points. But can the president maintain that? Isn't that something that you've seen historically?</s>SABATO: Yes. If you trace this back, at least for the last three presidents who've been very polarizing, Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama, these bumps really don't last very long, especially in bad, economic times. I think that's the key condition. We used to get -- we used to see bigger bumps for presidents when something really good happened. Sometimes it would be 20, 30 points and it would last a long time. With the one exception of 9/11, when President Bush did get a giant bump and it did last for more than a year, we really haven't seen that in these last three presidencies.</s>HILL: You do such a great job. Not only taking a look at what's happening that moment but then figuring out what really is going to impact voters down the road, short term and long term. If you were to rank what they really care about when they walk into that booth and they decide who they're voting for, what's at the top of the list?</s>SABATO: We all remember that James Carville slogan from 1992 for Bill Clinton, it's the economy stupid? Really it's their economy. Not just the U.S. economy. People are concerned about others naturally but they're looking at their present state. Are they better off today or worse off today than they were four years ago? Do they have a job? Do people in their family have a job? Do the kids who've gone through college, do their job prospects look good? Are they making more money or less money? All of these things are front and center. It's not selfish. It sounds selfish. It's really called retrospective judgment. How else are people to decide for whom to vote?</s>HILL: And that's where it doesn't look so good for President Obama right now. When asked about how he's handling the economy, most people rank President Obama now not that great. Fifty-seven percent say they don't like the approach he's taking, and only 38 percent say they do. And I'm assuming that when you take a look at all these numbers and put them together, that's a big number.</s>SABATO: Yes. Those are the ones I really look at. What was interesting to me was at least in one poll he actually went down in economic approval despite the euphoria about the killing of Osama bin Laden. So that's what President Obama has to focus on. Of course, he knows it. Sixteen months is a long time. But I'd say this. You know, barring, God forbid, some other terrorist attack that's major or something like that, the election is going to be about the economy. If we have a stronger economy, moving forward, economic growth, substantially lower unemployment, it really doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate. President Obama is going to win. But if those factors are in the other direction, then President Obama would be a one-term president.</s>HILL: I tell you what, I love that you say exactly what you think. A little harsh at times but you're the best out there when it comes to figuring out who is going to win, what party is going to be victorious and it is great to talk to you again, Larry Sabato. Thank you.</s>SABATO: Thank you, E.D. Thanks so much.</s>HILL: And coming up, the mysterious new helicopters that helped that team pull off the bin Laden mission. We'll get details from a special ops expert when we come back.