North Korea Claims Successful ICBM Test; Starting a Problem in the Face.
CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN HOST: Tonight, North Korea says it's tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile and the United States has just confirmed that. President Trump urges China to end this nonsense once and far all. The former CIA officer Bruce Klingner, one of the very few western officials to meet with North Korean diplomats will be live with us. And, Italy at the breaking point as it's buckling under an influx of migrants. The country's EU minister Sandro Gozi joins us as he pleads for others to share the burden. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the program, I'm Christiane Amanpour in London. It is July 4th, independence day in America. One of the most patriotic celebrations. And North Korea chooses this day to stake its claim to military might that could turn global security on its head. The regime in Pyongyang says that it has successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking American soil. It would be a nightmare turned reality for the Trump administration where national security and military advisers are holding an unplanned crisis meeting on this holiday. The latest -- the latest in to CNN is that U.S. military analysts do believe that North Korea's missile was, quote, "a probable two-stage intercontinental ballistic missile." One official tells CNN, the president is ready to approve a, quote, "measured response." This could see an increased deployment of U.S. troops, aircraft and ships to the region. The test is sending shutters through the Korean Peninsula, as well. And Paula Hancocks has the latest from Seoul.</s>PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Celebrated as a historic event in North Korea, raising alarm bells among its neighbors and foes. Pyongyang says this was a successful ICBM, an intercontinental ballistic missile. An excited news anchor spoke of the shining success in a special broadcast on North Korean television. A clearly delighted Kim Jong-un surveyed the scene. A test launch the North Korea leader had promise since the start of this year. But concerns in the South, a national security council meeting and a warning from President Moon Jae-in calling on the North not to cross the bridge of no return, warning of a red line without specifying what that red line was. China called for restraint from all sides urging North Korea to refrain from violating U.N. Security Council Resolutions.</s>JASPER KIM, EWHA WOMAN'S UNIVERSITY: As always, with North Korea it's strategic timing. I mean, here, you get a missile test and you get a wide audience focused on -- supposed to be on the G20 summit about trade and cooperation. Now all these party leaders from around the world are going to be talking about North Korea, North Korea, North Korea.</s>HANCOCKS: South Korea's military says it's now working with the U.S. to analyze the data and decide whether it was in fact an ICBM. They admit the range was longer than the May 14th launch. That test described by experts as the most significant advancement in its nuclear weapons program to date. An official assessment of this launch are worrying for the</s>U.S. DAVID WRIGHT, UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS: According to my calculations, they can reach all of Alaska, but they cannot reach the lower 48 states or the large Hawaiian islands. But they have the ability to reach Alaska.</s>HANCOCKS: A July 4th celebration for North Korea that the United States does not want. Paula Hancocks, CNN, Seoul.</s>AMANPOUR: And of course, as we mentioned, just after Paula filed that report, the United States has officially confirmed that it believes that was, indeed, an ICBM test. Now Bruce Klingner of the Conservative Heritage Foundation has spent 20 years analyzing the region for the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency. And he recently was part of a small team that held a rare meeting with North Korean diplomats on neutral ground in Sweden.</s>AMANPOUR: Mr. Klingner, welcome to the program. Thanks for joining me.</s>BRUCE KLINGNER, CONSERVATIVE HERITAGE FOUNDATION: Thank you for having me.</s>AMANPOUR: So given that, you know, you've had your meetings with the North Koreans. I'll get you to tell me what they told you about all of this in a moment, but this is -- this is -- is this the red line that everybody is talking about?</s>KLINGER: Well, people have defined red lines differently. And some have advocated that there be a military strike to prevent North Korea from completing development of an ICBM, but that kind of strike would escalate the likelihood or at least the potential of an all-out war on the peninsula. So, you know -- but it is a very startling development, very worrisome. Because even though this missile is estimated that it could have flown 5,700 kilometers, it could have perhaps gone even further. North Korea has done recently -- has constrained the trajectory so it doesn't fly over Japan by flying it to a very high altitude, but had it gone to a normal range, it could have been 6,700 kilometers, all of Alaska but perhaps even further.</s>AMANPOUR: Well, let me play you two assessments from weapons experts who spoke to CNN earlier today. There's Melissa Handam and David Wright. As I say speaking to CNN. This is what they're saying about it.</s>DAVID WRIGHT, CO-DIRECTOR OF THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS GLOBAL SECURITY PROGRAM: Technically, that is an ICBM. It doesn't mean, of course, it has the capability to reach the lower 48 states which is sort of 8,000 to 9,000 kilometers. But still it has done what North Korea claimed to have done, which is as far as I can tell launch an</s>ICBM. MELISSA HANHAM, NONPROLIFERATION EXPERT: Now we don't know whether they have a warhead that fit on a missile, but it's to the point where I think we probably have to start behaving from a policy standpoint as though they do. Simply because it's too risky not to.</s>AMANPOUR: Well, Mr. Klingner, you know, this has sort of escalated beyond people's imaginations. Do you believe -- you heard what Melissa said that we have to treat it as policy. That they could apply a warhead to these missiles. What do you think from your previous analysis?</s>KLINGNER: Exactly. Both of the analysts are superb and extremely well qualified. You know, we're trying to do our best assessment of what North Korea has given the limited information. And that's both from the outside as well as back in the intelligence community. But we've had four U.S. four-star generals who say they either think North Korea already has the capability to hit the continental U.S. with a nuclear warhead or they have to assume for planning purposes. North Korea previously tested a missile called Unha from a fixed launch site and a South Korean Navy dredge up those stages and estimates that it could have a 10,000 or 13,000-kilometer range. That's either half of the continental U.S. or the entire continental U.S. This system today is a road mobile. And based on previous assessments of photos of a static rocket engine test, outside experts think that it could be able to range New York or Washington. So, we may not know exactly where they are in the path of development, but we certainly know what their objective is, which is to be able to threaten the continental U.S. with a nuclear warhead.</s>AMANPOUR: So that's what their objective. What about for President Trump's reactions? You know, a few weeks or months ago, he said that North Korea would never have an ICBM. It will not happen. And then after this launch, he's tweeted, "North Korea has just launched another missile. Does this guy have anything to do better with his life? Hard to believe that South Korea and Japan will put up with this much longer. Perhaps China will put a heavy move on North Korea and end this nonsense once and for all." So there are two questions there, obviously. What is a heavy move first and foremost? What could china do?</s>KLINGNER: Well, China could, for example, more fully implement required U.N. sanctions. They have been pulling their punches on that. They turn a blind eye to proliferation, which occurs on their soil. They turn a blind eye to North Korea's money laundering and illicit activity that's going through Chinese banks and businesses. And also, China could engage in the same kind of economic warfare that they have been pushing against South Korea for Seoul's decision to deploy the THAAD ballistic missile defense system. So there's a lot that China can do that it should be doing. But also the U.S. has its own capabilities given the centrality of the U.S. dollar and the centrality of the U.S. financial system. The vast majority of all international transactions in the world, including those of North Korea are denominated in dollars which means they go through U.S. banks. So last week's sanction against the Bank of Dandong was the first time the U.S. really taken action against a Chinese bank for the last ten years. And there's evidence for a lot more Chinese entities that should be sanctioned.</s>AMANPOUR: But what happens when, you know, the president of the United States, you know, just brings me to mind of Obama's red line in Syria. When the president of the United States says it will not happen, it won't happen. North Korea will not test an ICBM, and then a few weeks later, it does. What are the realistic options to make the United States a serious deterrent or to -- I don't know, to be serious about this?</s>KLINGNER: Right. Well, there's no magic Rubik's cube combination to solve the North Korean problem. It's something that has troubled successive U.S. administrations for decades and we're going to be stuck with it for sometime. We do need to make sure that we have sufficient defences for ourselves and for our allies. That includes not only the conventional forces and the -- what's called the nuclear umbrella, but also ballistic missile defense. That would be including deploying the THAAD tactical level system to South Korea. But, also, ensuring we have sufficient ground base interceptors in Alaska and California. We have, perhaps, 44 now. And also, reviewing the strategic missile defense systems that Obama put on hold or cut.</s>AMANPOUR: So --</s>KLINGNER: But we need to increase the pressure. Yes?</s>AMANPOUR: No, no. Sorry. Does this keep you up at night? Are you concerned about these developments, particularly after having met with these North Korean diplomats? I mean, given what they said, explain to me did they give you any reassurances?</s>KLINGNER: Absolutely not. They made very clear, very emphatically clear, that denuclearization is totally off the table. There's nothing that the U.S. or Seoul could offer to induce them to abandon their nuclear arsenal. They became irritated when we tried various options of suggested things that would get them back to the negotiating table. They said quite simply accept us as a nuclear state and then we're willing to either talk about a peace treaty or fight.</s>AMANPOUR: Whoa. It doesn't look good. And, you know, with the president seeming to put a lot of onus on China, even though by the way China is getting angry with President Trump, you know, for the sanctions he's imposed, et cetera, it doesn't look like there's a great relationship there. What do you think they can come up with at the G20? Because Russia and China today both said there should be a simultaneous freeze of North Korea's missile and nuclear program and as you know with the U.S. abandoning military exercises and perhaps even the THAAD missile system that you were talking about.</s>KLINGNER: Right. China has always overpromised and underdelivered. You know, President Xi promised Trump at the Mar-a-lago summit that he would do more and we've heard that song before and we've always been disappointed. But, again, the U.S. can do a lot of things against entities including Chinese that are violating U.S. law. The Bank of Dandong really is just the tip of the iceberg of Chinese entities that should be sanctioned and we don't need Chinese permission for that because we are protecting our financial systems. We are protecting our banks from those that are misusing them. So, you know, it's not overseas enforcement. It's enforcing our own laws in our own country. You know, the freeze for freeze idea is not a good idea. It's North Korea offering something they don't legally possess because they're not allowed to test under the U.N. resolutions for U.S. and South Korean military exercises that we're allowed to do.</s>AMANPOUR: I mean, do you think that the west or other -- well, yes. The United States is getting any closer to a pre-emptive military strike? And what would that look like?</s>KLINGNER: Well, there has been growing advocacy in Washington and Seoul for such a strike. I think there's a bit too much flippancy in that in that I don't think people realize the consequences. Back when I was in government, we did war games or table top exercises, even before we thought North Korea had nuclear weapons. We always won. The alliance always won. But the casualties were in the hundreds of thousands and it could be much higher now that they have nuclear weapons. So although we of course always have to respond to a North Korea tactical or strategic attack and we always have to be there to deter such military action by the regime, we should not go quickly into a preventive strike because that would escalate into potentially an all-out war.</s>AMANPOUR: Pyongyang's July 4th surprise for the United States. Bruce Klinger, thank you very much indeed for joining us from Washington.</s>AMANPOUR: And as America celebrates Independence Day; in Africa, Rwanda remembers it as Liberation Day, marking 23 years since the end of the 100- day genocide that left nearly a million people dead. When we come back, as the summer season heats up, the surge of migrants and refugees taking the deadly trip across the Mediterranean is also spiking. Italy is a front line destination state, and the country's EU minister joins us next. He says the migrant problem must finally be shared.