What If Ron Paul Wins Iowa?
BLITZER: We certainly have learned to expect the unexpected in this, the 2012 Republican presidential race. And as we get closer to the Iowa caucuses a week from tomorrow, a Ron Paul victory is seeming more and more like a very real possibility. Our own Lisa Sylvester is taking a closer look now at this Ron Paul phenomenon. It's pretty amazing. What are you finding?</s>SYLVESTER: Well, Wolf, you know, Ron Paul was in the middle of the pact candidate, but now, he's leading among likely Republican Iowa caucus goers, and one major reason is his ground game with his loyal enthusiastic followers.</s>UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: So many people vote for a flash and style and charisma rather than substance.</s>SYLVESTER (voice-over): At the Ron Paul headquarters in Des Moines recently, volunteers work the phones. It's a hub of activity. In contrast to the Iowa campaign offices of Mitt Romney, which on this day, was still closed at mid morning. Paul is leaps and bounds ahead of Romney and Newt Gingrich in the ground game in Iowa, and it's now paying dividends.</s>REP. RON PAUL, (R) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: One thing that is characteristic about our campaign is when people join our campaign, they rarely leave. They're real solid, determined supporters. They understand what the message about and they agree with that. So, I think it's a very good sign. I think, in political terms, it means that we're probably peaking at the right time.</s>SYLVESTER: The latest polling from the American research group shows Ron Paul leading the Iowa presidential caucus with 21 percent, Romney at 20 percent, Newt Gingrich with 19 percent. Paul supporters are not likely to sway in the political breeze. They eagerly eat up his message, smaller government, fiscal discipline, and strict interpretation of the constitution. Paul support comes from a variety of passionate groups, the youth, Tea Party members and homeschoolers, a group very politically active in Iowa. Conservative radio show host, Steve Deace, says Paul has a very good chance of pulling off an upset in this state.</s>STEVE DEACE, IOWA RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Organizationally, he's very well organized, has really a devoted following. He also has several people around the state, people that I know that have done a very good job, for lack of a better word, evangelizing the Ron Paul philosophy of governance.</s>SYLVESTER: Paul has an authentic folksy style that plays well, not just in Iowa but also with this breakfast crowd in a New Hampshire deli. He also has, though, what some conservatives see as political baggage, particularly, on foreign policy. Paul wants to end all foreign aide, including to key U.S. ally, Israel, and he wants the U.S. to have a much smaller role on the world stage. That might make it tough for Paul to sell his message beyond the Iowa caucuses.</s>CHERI JACOBUS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: He has very passionate followers. His supporters are very passionate and will do anything for him. It is a little bit difficult for Ron Paul to expand his list of supporters. He is not going to take a lot of people who previously were hard core Republicans, a hard core Democrats and become Ron Paul supporters.</s>SYLVESTER (on-camera): Now, Ron Paul strategy includes wooing independents in Iowa, but they can take part in the caucuses. If Paul wants to win in Iowa, if he can pull that off, then maybe, perhaps, he can take that momentum to New Hampshire and beyond, Wolf.</s>BLITZER: Independents can certainly get involved to the primary in New Hampshire and in other states. How is he doing so far with the independents?</s>SYLVESTER: Actually, he's doing quite well in Iowa. That same poll, he's ranking about 33 percent. He's actually leading, compare that to Gingrich and Romney. They both have 17 percent, but the challenge for Ron Paul is going to be getting his supporters to participate in the caucus because they're not the bunch that typically will take part in these caucuses. Typically, his supporters are not real -- a big supporters of government or the government process, and that's going to be the real challenge for Ron Paul going forward next week.</s>BLITZER: Lisa, thanks very much. Let's dig a little bit deeper right now about this Ron Paul phenomenon. Joining us are CNN political contributors, the Democratic strategist, Maria Cardona and Will Cain, he's the columnist for TheBlaze.com. Will, first to you. What would it mean for the GOP if Ron Paul wins in Iowa a week from tomorrow?</s>WILL CAIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: It would mean that Republican voters just can't settle on a candidate, I think, Wolf. I mean, I think it would mean we are no closer to a candidate on January 4th than we are today or that we were yesterday, because I just can't see this support is going to coalesce around Ron Paul and he's going to ride that through New Hampshire, to South Carolina and Florida. It will mean this thing is a fractured field and it's up for grabs still.</s>BLITZER: How would you view it, Maria?</s>MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: I tend to agree with Will. And I definitely think there's a possibility that Ron Paul can win in Iowa because of everything that was just mentioned, the ground game, the passion of his followers, which can be very contagious. But I also think a critically important thing that Ron Paul has for Iowa voters, for especially those conservatives for whom character is a key ingredient for whoever they want to see as their nominee is that Ron Paul is seen as one who has never changed his political core to go with the political wins. I think that they see him as one of the most honest, the one that has the most principle. He is never seen as flip-flopper. And when you're going up against Romney and Gingrich, who both have baggage, both personal, as well as substantive, in term of issues, I think that's a very powerful thing, especially for Iowa caucus voters.</s>BLITZER: You know, that "Des Moines Register" -- we'll show the front page -- a big headline asking the question, "Could Ron Paul Win in Iowa?" There it is right there. But both of you know Andrew Sullivan. He's an influential blogger. He endorsed Ron Paul, but in recent days, as more information has come out once again about those newsletters that Ron Paul supposedly wrote 20 years ago, although he says he never wrote those newsletters, never read those newsletters, by and large, Andrew Sullivan is now writing this, and I will put it on the screen: "If Paul did not write these newsletters, then he has an obligation to say if he knew who did or conduct an investigation. A person who has that kind of bigotry directly printed under his name, without a clear empirical explanation of why he is innocent, cannot be an honorable president of the United States. Will Cain, what do you think?</s>CAIN: You know, Wolf, I do think there are some questions left to answer here. Here's the deal. Did Ron Paul write the letters? It's very plausible, possible he did not. Did he ever read them? OK, still plausible. We're stretching a little bit, but still plausible. Did he know about them? Well, listen, I was a small town newspaper publisher in Texas, and if something got published in one of my newspapers, it's very possible it would have happened once. But after that, it would have been drawn to my attention and I would have done something about it. But I still want to say I think this misses the bigger question which we're all really not asking, and that is, is Ron Paul a racist? And by most accounts, for most people's interaction with him, the answer is no. And buy the argument that his libertarian philosophies essentially make that question meaningless. They would have no place in the government anyway. But I do think it raises big questions about his abilities as manager, and more as a leader, and of some of the fringe elements he's aligned himself with.</s>BLITZER: Does he need to do more to explain all of this, Maria?</s>CARDONA: Yes. There is no question that he needs to do more, Wolf, especially if he does win Iowa, because what his problem has been all along is that he has never been able to get above the ceiling of those passionate, consumed followers of his, which he will have to do if he is going to be a viable candidate after Iowa. And the only way to do that, if these questions are going to continue, is for him to come out and explain himself. And if Will Cain is right that he actually is not a racist (ph) and he doesn't believe in any of these things, then he ought to come out and do a press conference and unequivocally say so, and unequivocally say that he's going to investigation how these newsletters came out, who wrote them, and why his signature is on them. Those are not questions that are going to sit well for voters in the other states that are coming up after the Iowa caucuses.</s>BLITZER: His campaign says it was a robo signature, if you will. It was an automatic signature. He never signed it, but somebody in the office just put it up there. All right. I want to move on and talk about Rick Santorum for a moment, Will. He is out there in Iowa. He's the only candidate campaigning in Iowa today, but he is actually hunting with Congressman Steve King, who is popular in Iowa, hasn't endorsed anyone. Let me play a clip, the two of them getting ready to hunt.</s>RICK SANTORUM (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Christmas, not a particularly great day to go and do a lot of town hall meetings. So I just thought we would do something that was fun, something that I enjoy doing, and I know the folks here in Iowa enjoy doing also and, you know, doing it with some good friends. So it was an opportunity for me to get out and participate in a sport that I know is a popular one here in the state of Iowa, is bird shooting. And we did some bird shooting today.</s>BLITZER: Doing some bird shooting. You see him wearing his NRA, National Rifle Association, cap out there. This is after they went hunting, Will. You know, if Steve King were to endorse Rick Santorum, Will, how big of a deal would that be?</s>CAIN: I think it would help. I think there is a potential here for Rick Santorum to be a surprise in Iowa. Look, he is the only candidate at this point who hasn't had his shot at the front of the line. If you put Rick Santorum on paper as well, and lay out his positions, they are pretty in the mainstream of Republican beliefs. I had an analyst one time ask me, "What is the deal? Why hasn't Santorum had his shot? Why are voters not looking to him?" And honestly, I can only come up with one plausible explanation. And that is his personality. He's just not charismatic or likeable enough for the voters to really gravitate towards him.</s>BLITZER: I've been surprised, too. In that recent poll that we showed earlier, he was actually, Maria, in Iowa, below Huntsman, who isn't even really running in Iowa. I simply don't understand that.</s>CARDONA: I do think it has a lot to do with personality and dynamism, or lack thereof. But I think the one thing we have to all keep in mind -- and you've said this many times, Wolf, and it's one of the reasons we are finding this process so fascinating -- going into the Iowa caucuses, the majority of voters are still undecided. And the majority of voters who said they have chosen a candidate have also said they could very easily change their minds. So, I agree that, at this point, we should not say that anybody is out of this race right now. It has been so volatile up to now, and in the next several days anything can happen.</s>CAIN: Absolutely. You can still hang an "undecided" sign.</s>BLITZER: Yes. Will, one thing that is going to happen in these next eight days, these final eight days, maybe too late, maybe too little, but Newt Gingrich is about to go negative. He is already signaling that. He has been hammered by these campaign commercials out there. Is it too late for him to fight back?</s>CAIN: You know, it might be too late. Here is a couple facts we know. He knew he had to change his message. We thought he was going to move it to the economy over the next week. He knows he has been pummeled over the last several weeks, he's been bleeding support, and he's being hit with negative ads left and right. But the interesting thing is, I think if he goes negative, after Romney, essentially, the person who has really benefited from all the ads attacking Newt has been Ron Paul. So I don't know what a negative ad for Romney is going to do for Newt in Iowa, but I guess he does need to do something.</s>BLITZER: In general though, Maria -- and you have worked in these campaigns -- if someone hits you, shouldn't you hit back?</s>CARDONA: Oh, there is no question, Wolf. And you and I had this conversation on your show last week, which is he absolutely needed to hit back immediately. Let's not forget what happened to John Kerry in '04. Because right now, what is happening is that all of those negative attacks have had time to solidify in voters' minds. He should have done this a long time ago. In fact, you said this -- have a press conference and talk about how Mitt Romney is not a core conservative. Today he put out a statement. That's a good way to go. Do a Web video. Those are very cheap. He can use Mitt Romney's words against himself, and that doesn't even -- it wouldn't even seem like a negative ad if you are using Mitt Romney's own words. And there is so much there if he needs to.</s>BLITZER: All right.</s>CAIN: To Ron Paul's benefit though? To what?</s>CARDONA: To Gingrich's own benefit. It will make voters see that he is fighting back and that he is setting the record straight. Voters like candidates who are going to fight back. If they are not going to fight back for themselves, how are they going to fight back for the voters?</s>BLITZER: I'm going to have a chance to speak with Newt Gingrich tomorrow. I'll be in Iowa. He'll be in THE SITUATION ROOM. We'll be broadcasting from Iowa tomorrow. Mitt Romney on Wednesday. Guys, thanks very much.</s>CARDONA: Thanks, Wolf.</s>BLITZER: An amazing journey more than a century back in time. Just ahead, you're going to hear -- yes, you will hear the recordings of Alexander Graham Bell for the first time ever thanks to the power of a brand new technology. And from computer bag to bulletproof vest, the product that may be transforming workplace security.