Libyan Rebels and Al Qaeda
MALVEAUX: We have three stories, but only one of them will air this hour. Which one do you want to see? We want you to vote by texting 22360. Vote 1 for U.S. companies helping Middle Eastern governments censor the Internet. Vote 2 for Acapulco child sex trafficking and what is being done to stop it. And vote 3 for what your TV knows about you and who's getting information on what you watch. The winning story will air in the next hour. So who is exactly the U.S. helping in Libya? A NATO commander says that there are, quote, "flickers of al Qaeda among the Libyan rebels." Our Michael Holmes is here to discuss the possible risk of the terror group gaining influence in Libya. That is today's "Global Tracking." Michael, good to see you.</s>MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Good to see you. Yes.</s>MALVEAUX: It seems that people around the world, they want to help the Libyan rebels, they want to help the opposition overthrow Gadhafi. And yet there could be al Qaeda among them, we are learning.</s>HOLMES: Almost certainly there would be elements of al Qaeda or individuals. You --</s>MALVEAUX: How real is that?</s>HOLMES: Well, you could follow it under sort of shades in gray. You know, there's nothing in Libya that's black and white right now. That's for sure. There is obviously a humanitarian crisis that's going on in Libya, no one really is arguing that Gadhafi should stay, but let's talk about if Tripoli falls, Gadhafi's regime crumbles. And you know there's a lot of pretty justifiable fears about what a new Libya would look like. Now as you said the U.S. NATO commander Admiral James Stavridis, he told the U.S. Congress yesterday that the intelligence about the rebels is showing that most of them are responsible men and women. You know good folks fighting for a cause, they want their own freedom, they want tyranny gone, et cetera. But another unnamed official is backing up Stavridis' statement and says that while there are a sprinkling, let's say, of extremists, nobody should think that the opposition is being led by al Qaeda.</s>MALVEAUX: Is there a real risk here, Michael, when you think about it?</s>HOLMES: Well, you know there's a real risk any time you get an impoverished country like we see in Libya in the Arab world and it becomes unstable. Al Qaeda is expert at beating on that hopelessness. There are people who are poor, angry, disenfranchised, people who see no other way out. Al Qaeda can step into that breach and say, well, look to us. No one is saying that Osama bin Laden is leading the assault here, that there's -- you know, but there is a distinct possibility that if tumult enthuse after Gadhafi, stability and some brand of democracy doesn't replace him, then anything is possible. And that outcome is very possible. The thing to remember about al Qaeda is it's not so much an organization as it is an ideology, which is what makes it so hard to fight. You've got various groups around the world who buy into the ideology then they become al Qaeda, and that's partly why, as I say, it's so hard to battle. There's no al Qaeda HQ. Very little structure there. It's just about</s>MALVEAUX: So when we talk about the rebel groups here, they are very different. Doctors, teachers, volunteers.</s>HOLMES: Yes.</s>MALVEAUX: Former military generals, all -- kind of a hodgepodge, if you will, of folks. How do we make -- how do we understand how influential this group is and who really makes up the rebel?</s>HOLMES: Yes. You know that is right. It s very much -- let's call it a melting pot, if you like. Mixed in there, you could have elements of al Qaeda as well, or al Qaeda leanings. You know just one more example of how complex and layered the situation is in the Arab world right now. And there's one final thing, too, that's worth pointing out here. Al Qaeda documents that were recovered in Iraq and studied and verified at West Point showed that one in four, 25 percent of the foreign jihadists fighting Americans in Iraq -- guess where? Came from Libya, mainly eastern Libya where these rebels are based. It wasn't a massive number, but I think the percentage is significant and that's what's worrying a lot of people.</s>MALVEAUX: All right, Michael. Thank you for your perspective. Still a lot of questions about who these folks are and whether or not they should be supported.</s>HOLMES: Absolutely. Yes.</s>MALVEAUX: OK.</s>HOLMES: We don't know what's next.</s>MALVEAUX: Thank you, Michael. Another country in conflict that we are watching very closely, that is Syria, where after weeks of protesting and violence, Syria's president is doing all he can now to cling to power. Stan Grant has more on the fascinating character of Bashar al- Assad.</s>STAN GRANT, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): He was the second son, a man deep in the shadow of his father. Bashar al- Assad was never meant to rule, but his older brother's death in the 1994 car accident thrust him into history's crossroads. Now scenes like this posted on YouTube in recent days are defining his rule. Bloody bodies and violent protest fast becoming a daily event in southern Syria. CNN can't authenticate this video, but human rights groups say it shows Syrian's security forces firing on their own people. State TV disputes these claims. With revolts spreading across the Middle East, political analysts say force has worked in the past, but not this time.</s>PROF. ANNE-MARIE SLAUGHTER, PRINCETON UNIVERSITY: The government is going to try to continue to use the tactics that it has used for a very long time which is just to snuff out any protests. But what we just heard, which I think is most important, is the wall of fear is coming down.</s>GRANT: Syrians have suffered in fear of political repression for decades. Bashar al-Assad's father Hafez first ruled with an iron fist. In the 30 years before his death in 2000, Hafez al-Assad ruthlessly put down dissent, dissidents were jailed, opposition crushed. Some estimates from human rights groups put the number of those killed into the tens of thousands. Critics say his father's security machine still holds a grip on the country and even the president himself, speaking to CNN in 2005, Bashar al-Assad rejected those who suggest he's not in control.</s>ASSAD: But at the same time, they say that I'm a dictator. That's</s>GRANT: He denies he's a dictator, seeing himself as a modern leader, trained as an ophthalmologist, married to a Syrian woman born in Britain. A young, attractive first couple. This was meant to be a new era of reform, transparency and democracy. (</s>On camera): There has been some change, some economic reform, but largely the promises have not been delivered. Human rights watch call the 10 years of Bashar al-Assad's rule, the wasted decade. The media is monitored, the Internet monitored and censored, and dissidents still fill up the prisons. (</s>Voice-over): And now the protests. Activists in Syria say the president cannot look away.</s>WISSAM TARIFF, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, INSAN: He has to start listening. It's the time to start listening and acting. He doesn't -- he can't afford any more promises.</s>GRANT: How he responds will answer the question, is Bashar al- Assad truly the son of the father? Stan Grant, CNN, Abu Dhabi.</s>MALVEAUX: There are new worries today for Japan. The country orders immediate safety upgrade at all of its nuclear power plants. And a troubling concern at a second plant near the crippled one. We're going to go live to Tokyo.