Search for Missing AirAsia Flight
ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.</s>CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: Breaking news this morning, a massive search happening for missing AirAsia Flight 8501. It disappeared midflight with 162 people on board. What went wrong? What's being done to find it? We are bringing live team coverage, breaking down the latest on this very big story this morning. Good morning. Welcome back to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.</s>JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm John Berman. Thirty minutes past the hour. We want to welcome all of our viewers here in the United States and around the world. New information this morning on the search for AirAsia Flight 8501. It vanished Sunday on route from Indonesia to Singapore, with 162 people onboard. Indonesian officials this morning not offering families much hope. Those leading the search and rescue efforts say they suspect that the jet is at the bottom of the sea. But Indonesia's vice president just told us it remains a search and rescue operation. That happened a few minutes ago right here on EARLY START. Still a search and rescue operations. Ships, planes, helicopters have been combing the waters. But so far, no concrete sign of the plane or any confirmed sighting of any wreckage. Still not known if bad weather was a factor, but the pilot had requested a higher altitude to avoid storm clouds before the plane disappeared from radar. CNN's Andrew Stevens will begin our coverage live in Surabaya, Indonesia. And, Andrew, it was you who just a few minutes ago spoke to the vice president of Indonesia for very latest on this search operation.</s>ANDREW STEVENS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, John. Good morning to you. But I must admit I asked him about what he was telling the families of the passengers here. He said basically we're doing everything we can to try to find this plane and to keep praying. So, they are not expecting a good outcome here. I think we have to be honest here. And he actually said, Jusuf Kalla, the vice president, said that after 40 hours, or about 32, 33 hours into this now, after 40 hours, the chances of finding any survivors has got to be very, very small. I also asked him, John, because there have been unconfirmed reports of objects of interest spotted by an Australian plane, air force plane. Listen to what he had to say.</s>STEVENS: There have been reports of objects floating in the search zone. Can you tell me, are they in -- do you know if they are linked at all to the missing plane?</s>JUSUF KALLA, VICE PRESIDENT OF INDONESIA: Yes. Until now, not yet any object. Some reports from Australia. Now, we're clarifying. It's not yet clear that the object from the plane or not.</s>STEVENS: Yes. So, not yet clear, John, whether these objects are actually linked to Flight 8501. Remember, of course, after 370 disappeared, there were a lot of sightings of objects in the water, oil slicks which were misleading on that one. Not a lot into this sighting so far, John.</s>BERMAN: Just looking at the map, Andrew, though, this is a vastly different situation than 370. That, of course, you know, deep in the ocean, thousands of miles from the Australian coast. This is in a well-travelled area. Planes frequently flying overhead, shipping lanes, major cities relatively nearby. Do they suspect or do they hope that fairly soon, they could see some signs of concrete evidence?</s>STEVENS: They are cautious about what they are expecting and as you put it there, John, this is a much more heavily traveled area, both on the surface of the sea and also over air as well. There has to be just a lot better chance of finding this plane if it is where it is thought to be. If they are judging the search on the last known coordinates when it made that radio message about requesting a different flight plan to avoid bad weather, they are extrapolating from there to pinpoint where the search area would be. It is in shallow water. The problem for the Indonesians, they don't have the sophisticated equipment that is need really to find this wreckage quickly. So, they're going to need help there. The Australians and Singaporeans and Malaysians already sent vessels and aircrafts to the search zone, about 30 ships, 15 aircraft now searching this area. We've got two or three hours of daylight before they have to call off the air search. The ships can stay on station using spotlights and using sonar. But they do need more sophisticated equipment. That will likely be the next step to bring that in. Compared with MH370, as you say, 1,000 miles offshore in depth of ocean four to five miles, extraordinary deep ocean. A lot of it completely uncharted. As I said at a time, they knew more about the surface of the moon than the undersea of the Indian Ocean. So, here, a lot more is known about it. They do have a fairly wide area, but area of interest nonetheless. And they have a lot of vessels here. So, you would have to assume that they would find at least something in the next two or three days. A lot of obviously would depend on the weather conditions. They cleared today. So, hopefully, they will stay good for the next few days.</s>BERMAN: Although we are running out of light today there. So, that search no doubt will be suspended fairly soon. Andrew Stevens for us in Surabaya, thanks so much.</s>ROMANS: Running out of light. And it has been more than 30 hours now since the last contact with that flight, AirAsia Flight 8501. More ships and planes and helicopters are joining the search. CNN's Paula Hancocks joins us live from the staging area in Indonesia. She joins us on the telephone. Paula, describe to us what's happening there.</s>PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Well, Christine, it is quiet now. It is certainly circling down for the night. Obviously there is only a bit of light left. We understand that there won't be more helicopters coming in here. But we have seen them coming in throughout the day. They have been refueling after searching over the area. Now, they have been having a quick briefing to find out where they should go next and then going off. We're seeing planes coming here as well. Now, I spoke to the man in charge of the search and rescue operation at this airport. He effectively said they are looking at the area of 240 by 240 nautical miles. So, a very significant area still. And he also said to me that they haven't narrowed down the area yet. They are looking within that area, systematically. They are still looking at that whole area. They haven't managed to hone in on one particular area because he said simply they don't have the data, as soon as they do have the data available, then, they'll be able to have a more specific search. Now, of course, the concern for the next few days is the weather. It has held pretty well today, but we understand that the next few days, according to officials, it will deteriorate. There will be rain, which is a problem for visibility for many of these airplanes and helicopters that fly quite low. And we understand that there will be significant cloud cover which could hamper the search and rescue operation -- Christine.</s>ROMANS: So many challenges and so many questions. Paula Hancocks for us this morning in Indonesia -- thank you, Paula.</s>BERMAN: So, what was the weather when the plane lost contact with the ground? CNN meteorologist Pedram Javaheri takes a look at the weather search and rescue that -- the search and rescue teams are up against.</s>PEDRAM JAVAHERI, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Good morning, guys. Yes, the weather across portions of the Java Sea at this moment finally improving. You know, we have not seen conditions this clear and quite sometime. In fact, posit for you, there are storms in the area at the last known point with the aircraft. But to the north, generally partly cloudy. To the south, similar story. But when you talk about an area in the wet season, December being typically the wettest time of year, you know storms are blossoming in the next couple days. And a little bit of time stamp. Take you through Tuesday, eventually into Wednesday, and storms develop again toward the last point known of contact region. And that is where we think more strong storms, more gusty winds and also reduced visibility is something to be worth noting in the next couple of days. Good news is when you take a look at the sea surface temperatures at Java Sea, among the warmest on our planet, right around 82 degrees or so Fahrenheit. So, survival in these waters would be a possibility, but, of course, the longer time passes, the more unlikely scenario that becomes. We'll send it back to you.</s>ROMANS: All right. Pedram, thank you so much for that. I want to talk more about the search for AirAsia Flight 8501 and just what might have happened to it. Joining us now, former pilot and aviation consultant Alastair Rosenschein. Thank you so much for joining us again. I know you have flown this particular route, Alastair. Can you tell us what the pilot has been facing? We know monsoon from October to April. I think there can be really dangerous weather in the region. Can you describe to us what can happen there and what it looks like in really rough weather?</s>ALISTAIR ROSENSHEIM, FORMER PILOT AND AVIATION CONSULTANT (via telephone): Yes, good morning, Christine and John. Yes. Well, this particular area and there are other areas like this one around the world, you can get these build up from the storms. They are worst mid to late afternoon, but because of the hot sea conditions, they consist during the night as well. They build up to the major storm cells, can build up to 55,000 or 60,000 feet. It gives you some idea of the extent of these clouds. The vertical winds in the clouds are quite violent. They can reach speeds of over 100 miles an hour vertically. So, when the aircraft is traveling horizontal through this, you get buckling. There is icing, hail, heavy water. In fact, there have been occasions that these clouds have extinguished the engines. They are effectively jet engines. They're just burning fuel in an air flow. If you get a lot of water in them, the engines can cut out. The -- normally, you can pick your way around these thunderstorms and have a fairly smooth ride. If the storms are very close together, then the ride can be rougher because you are getting closer to the storms. Sometimes these cells, the individual thunderstorm cells can actually merge. That does cause major problems for the pilots and crew because there is no easy way through it. In those occasions, you are warning the crew to strap in themselves and the passengers to put away the bar trolleys so nothing is flying in the aircraft. And you grin and bear it. Using the radar to pick your way through the lightest return to indicate the smoothest ride.</s>BERMAN: Alastair, an aviation analyst speaking to CNN earlier today was talking about the screen image from an unconfirmed aircraft control screen, that indicates that maybe this plane was flying too slowly as it was approaching a higher altitude at 36,000 feet, maybe going 100 kilometers too slow per hour. What might that do to an aircraft and what would cause a plane or pilot to not have the plane be going fast enough?</s>ROSENSCHEIN: Well, when an aircraft climbs, it trades some of the air speed for the climb. You know, this is a sophisticated aircraft. They would be flying at the correct speed for the climb. It would be using the auto flight system, auto pilot. The problem is, as you climb higher, you are margin for error is reduced. There is less -- put it another way, you can only fly a little bit slower when you reach the point of which the aircraft might stall. Now, if the wing loading is increased through turbulence or vertical winds you fly through in these thunderstorms, then that can actually increase your stalling speed. Now, in lay terms, that means the aircraft can stall actually at higher speed if there is this increased wind loading. And this is a problem flying through the area of turbulence through the thunderstorms. It is a judgment tack by the pilot. Do you go up high to go over top of the weather with the reduced margin of error? Or do you stay your altitude or even descend and go through the bad weather as low altitude where the aircraft can withstand bigger fluctuation in speed without actually becoming uncontrollable. And having spent 30 years flying myself, I tried both methods on numerous occasions, it is very uncomfortable descending a little bit, it does give you the reassurance the aircraft will remain pliable as the speed fluctuates to the heavy turbulence.</s>ROMANS: Certainly, with no mayday call, you have to wonder if the pilots were struggling to control the aircraft and try to talk to air traffic control and figure out, as Alistair saying, what is the best way to kick their way through that crisis. Thank you so much, Alastair Rosenschein. AirAsia shares, meanwhile, are getting hammered this morning. I think there's no surprise there. They're down 8 percent right now. The biggest one day drop for the stock of the company that flies the plane. Malaysia Airlines stock took a similar plunge after Fight 370 disappeared, you recall. Eventually, the stock was taken off the stock market as part of the government plan. AirAsia, different company, in a better financial position than Malaysia Airlines was, the stock is still up more than 20 percent this year. It is regularly voted the best low cost air carrier. AirAsia CEO Tony Fernandes has been reaching to the public through social media since the jet disappeared. He called this his worst nightmare. This morning, he tweeted this, "Keeping positive and staying strong. My heart bleeds for all the relatives of my crew and our passengers." You just think about how these low cost Asian carriers have really transformed the landscape for millions of people over the past 20 years. Very quickly, the $100 million aircraft can transform your economy and that's something you've really seen.</s>BERMAN: It's also interesting to hear from Tony Fernandes. A different level of engagement right now than we saw nine months ago, perhaps a lot of lessons learned from Flight 370.</s>ROMANS: It's really sad to having to make the comparisons. OK. We're going to continue to follow the very latest on this missing flight, AirAsia Flight 8501. But, first, happening right now this -- a ferry on fire with hundreds on board. A painstaking slow rescue already turning deadly. We are live as survivors make their way to safety. That's next.