Polls Show Bush Gaining Ground on Gore; On the Campaign Trail, Bush Stresses Education While Gore Talks Medicare
AL GORE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I will never go along with any plan to raid Medicare or turn it over to the HMO bean counters, shaking the foundation of health security for our seniors.</s>BERNARD SHAW, CNN ANCHOR: Al Gore offers a new chapter in his bid to be seen as the chief protector of Medicare.</s>GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America today is in the midst of an education recession that can threaten our very future.</s>JUDY WOODRUFF, CNN ANCHOR: George W. Bush offers a new catch phrase, hoping to persuade voters he'll be an education president.</s>SHAW: We'll chart the candidates' ups and downs in the polls and whether the momentum has shifted.</s>WOODRUFF: Plus, the political dance in a presidential battleground state that embraces diversity.</s>ANNOUNCER: From Washington, this is INSIDE POLITICS, with Judy Woodruff and Bernard Shaw.</s>WOODRUFF: Thank you for joining us. Well, while some political observers are buzzing about a possible rebound by George W. Bush, both he and Al Gore are talking issues on the trail today. For Bush, the topic is education. For Gore, it's Medicare. But in this close race, even discussions of the issues tend to include an attack or two, or more. We begin our coverage with Jonathan Karl, who is with the Gore camp in Florida.</s>JONATHAN KARL, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For the vice president, a new line of attack on Medicare and a chance to play to the crowd he'll need to take Florida, the largest battleground state of them all.</s>GORE: I'm fighting for the seniors of America, the people who have worked hard all their lives, paid their taxes, and deserve some peace and security in their older years. I will fight for you! I will fight for you! I will fight for your families!</s>KARL: Gore unveiled "Medicare at the Crossroads," a 74-page book filled primarily with previously announced proposals and attacks on his Republican rival.</s>GORE: And their plan would make seniors go beg the HMOs and insurance companies for prescription drug coverage, even if the HMOs don't want to provide it.</s>KARL: Gore's Medicare booklet summarizes his plans, including adding a prescription drug benefit and putting the Medicare surplus in a so-called "lockbox," to be spent only on the program and on paying down the national debt.</s>GORE: Some see that surplus as a piggy bank they can use for a tax cut that primarily benefits the wealthiest Americans at the expense of everyone else.</s>KARL: Gore also added some new details to his Medicare plans, including eliminating co-payments and deductibles for some preventative care services at a cost of $8 billion over 10 years, and steps to make it harder for HMOs to leave Medicare, including forcing them to sign up for two-year contracts instead of the current one year.</s>GORE: Here's my bottom line: tough new penalties for any HMO that tries to exclude or drop our seniors.</s>KARL: In a new criticism, Gore said George W. Bush's plan to give low-income seniors drug coverage could force seniors in some states to go to welfare offices to qualify. The Bush campaign dismissed Gore's charge as a "gross distortion." Gore's focus on Medicare comes after Republicans have spent millions over the last three weeks hammering his prescription drug plan. (</s>BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, RNC AD) NARRATOR: Gore's plan? When seniors turn 64, they must join a drug HMO selected by Washington.</s>KARL: Bush strategists say Gore's latest salvo on Medicare is a sign their attacks are working, forcing the vice president to respond.</s>KARL: This is Gore's 11th trip to Florida since January. He has also spent nearly $2 million on television advertising here. The reason for the effort is simple. Gore's strategists think if they can win here, they'll win the election -- Judy.</s>WOODRUFF: Jonathan, why the focus this week on Medicare. Is it that they think the older voters are that important to Gore's doing well?</s>KARL: Well, they certainly think they're absolutely critical to doing well here in Florida and also in several of the other battleground states. They also believe that they've got a chance here -- that Bush has got some vulnerabilities on the Medicare issues. They believe that if Bush -- if Gore can talk about this issue, talk about what is wrong, in their view, with Bush's prescription drug plan, that they can win over those senior voters. Also tied into this, of course, is the Social Security plan, which they will be talking about as well this week.</s>WOODRUFF: All right. Jonathan Karl on the road in Florida, thanks -- Bernie.</s>SHAW: Now to Governor Bush and how his education theme is playing out in the Pacific Northwest this day. Here's our senior political correspondent Candy Crowley.</s>CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): George Bush says jobs are plentiful, the Dow Jones is up, and the country is in a recession. He knew that would catch your attention.</s>BUSH: America today is in the midst of an education recession that can threaten our very future. While many schools are doing well -- and Laura mentioned Austin High School, where our twin daughters went -- there are some, in the last 7 1/2 years, some schools have shown stagnation and decline. There are too many of our schools not meeting the challenge. Expectations are not high enough, performance is not strong enough, and our leaders are not bold enough to reverse this slide.</s>CROWLEY: The use of the word "recession" is an attempt to blunt Al Gore's strong suit, the booming economy, as well as to infuse a sense of urgency into the education issue.</s>BUSH: When 68 percent of fourth-graders in our highest poverty schools cannot read a simple children's book, America faces an education recession.</s>CROWLEY: Returning to the classroom Monday, Bush pushed his $5 billion a year education program, which features a plan to allow parents of kids in failing schools to find another option, locally administered testing every year in every grade, and early and intensive reading instruction.</s>BUSH: Just the other day, the secretary of education announced Gore's new three R's for American education: "relationships, resilience, and readiness." Now, that sounds nice.</s>CROWLEY: The Clinton-Gore administration, Bush charged, focuses on process, not children, regulations, not results.</s>CROWLEY: From here in Beaverton, Oregon, Bush moves onto Washington. Neither state has voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the last three elections. But within the numbers, the Bush camp sees a chance that their candidate could win here. And besides, if you take the electoral votes of Washington and Oregon, and add them up, they equal that of the electoral count in Michigan. And at this stage of the game, you have to keep every calculation open -- Bernie.</s>SHAW: Candy, education a Bush theme during the primaries, we all recall. But tactically, why a return to that subject now?</s>CROWLEY: Well, first of all, they're buoyed by the polls and believe that they are making headway by focusing on single issues day by day. Basically, they believe that education is a Bush strong suit and there's some polling that indicates that. When you're in a swing area, which Beaverton is here in Oregon, and you're trying to appeal to those all-important suburban moms, education is one of those issues that does it, that reaches out to them, and that's why they returned to it.</s>SHAW: OK, Candy Crowley in Oregon -- Judy.</s>WOODRUFF: Now, 43 days until the presidential election, and our daily tracking poll suggests Bush has had an upswing. Though the race is still neck and neck, Bush now leads Gore by three points in a CNN/"USA Today"/Gallup survey of likely voters. Now, that is a statistically insignificant margin, but no doubt a comfort to Bush, who trailed Gore by as much as 10 points in our survey last week. Our senior political analyst Bill Schneider joins us now from Los Angeles. Bill, is this a Bush gain or is it a Gore loss?</s>WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, both. In the past four days, Gore has lost seven points and Bush has gained six. We're seeing that shift across the whole electorate: men, women, young voters, seniors, rich, poor, everybody. Maybe Gore's convention bounce is wearing off. You know, Judy, a kiss doesn't last forever.</s>WOODRUFF: That's right. Bill, what about Gore's, all of the talk last week about oil?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, you know, it may have backfired. We know it didn't do Gore any good. Two weeks ago, we asked people which candidate would do a better job handling rising oil prices, and voters gave Bush a narrow edge. We asked the same question this weekend and got the same result, which means Gore certainly didn't gain anything from his move on oil prices. The timing of the move may have fed voters' suspicion that it was totally driven by politics. For the first time since the conventions, Gore had a bad week and Bush had a good week. Gore was forced to spend time defending himself against Bush's charges that he exaggerated how much his mother-in-law pays for prescription drugs compared with his dog, and explaining what he said was a joke that he was sung a union song as a lullaby when he was a child. He also raised $4 million at a Hollywood fund-raiser after denouncing the entertainment industry, which led Republicans to call him a hypocrite. Now, by comparison, Bush had a pretty good week: no gaffes, appealing appearances on "Oprah" and "Regis," and he stayed on his "cradle to grave" message all week, which is Bush's version of the safety net. You know, Judy, this thing could go down to the wire. A lot is riding on those debates. Bill, what about the voters? Are they paying more attention to all of this?</s>SCHNEIDER: Well, Judy, some are, and that could be a clue as to why Bush is making gains. A week ago, three-quarters of Republicans and three-quarters of Democrats said they were paying a lot of attention to the campaign. No difference. But that figure has now jumped over to 80 percent of Republicans, with no change among Democrats. Something is rallying the Republican base. Bush? Maybe. But maybe something else: perhaps a horrified realization that Gore really might win this election -- Judy.</s>WOODRUFF: All Right, Bill Schneider, thanks very much. And we will see you a little later -- Bernie.</s>SHAW: We're joined now by our political analysts: Bob Novak of the "Chicago Sun Times" and Ron Brownstein of the "Los Angeles Times." A double-barreled question: Why is this race so close? And how might it end? -- Ron.</s>RON BROWNSTEIN, "LOS ANGELES TIMES": Well, it is so close because you have, I think, two fundamental currents at work in this campaign that push in opposite directions. One is a general satisfaction with the way things are going in the country: the economy, crime, welfare. All of these things are moving in the positive direction. That benefits Al Gore as the incumbent party. On the other hand, you have a natural desire for change after eight years, reinforced by a lot of scandal and gridlock here in the -- especially in the second Clinton term. And that obviously helps the challenger, George W. Bush. Bernie, this is an extraordinary moment. This is the first time since 1980 that the lead has changed hands in Gallup poll after Labor Day, only the third time since 1960 that this has ever happened. We really are in unusual race between two candidates who are very closely matched at a time when the parties are almost at parity in the nation. And I think we're going to have some more twists and turns before it's over.</s>SHAW: Bob.</s>ROBERT NOVAK, CNN "CROSSFIRE": This is really no surprise to people in both parties. Some of the old hands in the Gore party have said from the beginning that this reminds them very much of the 1960 race, which went back and forth continuously. And nobody really ever will know who got the most votes in that race. The -- I disagree with Ron to a certain degree, though. I think that what we have -- as to why it goes back and forth -- I think what we have here is two candidates who really disagree on the basic issue of the role of government. And they have a very strong base. Each one has a strong base: Bush for less government; Gore more for government. Now it's that other 10 percent, 12 percent, whatever it is in between, who is affected by things that really probably don't have anything to do with issues. It's gaffs. It's Gore looking pompous. It's Bush looking dopey. And that is why the good week, bad week is not just a figure of speech by reporters. It's something that really does affect the swing voter. But there is no doubt, this is not just a little blip. Just as there was a momentum for Gore after the Los Angeles convention, I think that there are several polls that show a momentum for Bush right now.</s>SHAW: Now, both of you, as -- being the journalists you are -- have in the backs of your notebooks information that sometimes you don't get a chance to impart. Ron alluded to upcoming twists and turns. What do you foresee?</s>BROWNSTEIN: Well, one thing that is very unusual about this race -- I think quite striking -- is the size of the battlefield. Both candidates, because they are relatively centrists, are proving capable of competing in states that the other side has usually considered their own. Look at today. Al Gore is in Florida, a state where the Democrats averaged less have 40 percent of the vote from 1968 through 1992. George Bush is in Washington and Oregon: states where the Democrats -- as Candy noted -- have won the last three campaigns. Bush is competing in Wisconsin, Iowa, West Virginia. Gore is adding Nevada to his buy list. And they're talking about possibly the DNC going on in Arizona and Colorado. I think one of the defining characteristics of this is just how big a battlefield. Sure, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio are important, but they're not the whole story anymore, because both candidates really can compete in a lot of different places.</s>NOVAK: The -- I think one of the interesting things, as many politicians told me, there can be no change in this race until the debates, because that's the next event. And we have the Olympics. Everybody is watching the Olympics. Number one, everybody is not watching the Olympics. That is first thing. And the second is, there can be changes. You -- yes, politics, you can have a good week or a bad week in between. I think that the number of states that are contested is going to -- is going to shrink pretty soon. Al Gore has made a valiant effort in Florida. But all my information is that Bush is back in the lead in Florida. And maybe he better abandon that and worry about those central states that are going to decide the election.</s>BROWNSTEIN: Gore has never demonstrated that he will really spend the money it takes to win Florida. He is close there. But he is letting Bush outspend him at least 2-1. And you know, it will cost a lot of money to really try for it.</s>SHAW: How are the Democrats reacting to Bush's movement?</s>NOVAK: I think they are very -- not happy about, because the -- some of the top people in the Gore campaign really expected to go into the debates six, seven points ahead, so all that Gore had to do was coast. I think that was unrealistic. So they are not happy about this at all. But nobody -- but I will tell you this, the -- quite frankly, the Democrats are less apt to panic than the Republicans. The Republicans are a little skittery. The Democrats have been through some hard times, so they are not panicking.</s>SHAW: Let's get away from politics. A very serious and regretful note: Over the weekend, Carl T. Rowan, 75 years old, a very famous American journalist and a friend -- former "Chicago Sun Times" syndicated columnist -- died.</s>NOVAK: Yes he was a colleague of mine in the Gridiron Club as well. He lived in two worlds, Bernie. He was a member of the Washington establishment, formerly ambassador to Finland, former -- sat with Lyndon Johnson's cabinet, a very prominent journalist, knew everybody in town. I mean, he was also a great battler for civil rights. He never gave it up. He was a courageous fighter in the South, exposing racism as a young reporter. And just recently, in recent years, he exposed corruption in the NAACP -- got a lot of criticism within the African- American community, but it was the right thing to do. He was a -- really, a towering figure. And he will be missed. And he was -- he was a lot fun at the Gridiron club, too. Sang from a -- he couldn't walk at the last meeting, but he sang -- played the part of Monica Lewinsky in the last show.</s>SHAW: I remember it. He came out on the stage. He was wearing a blue dress.</s>NOVAK: That's right.</s>SHAW: Bob Novak, "Chicago Sun Times," Ron Brownstein, the "Los Angeles Times," thanks very much. We are going to miss Carl.</s>WOODRUFF: Indeed, he will be missed. Thanks very much. That was great. And when INSIDE POLITICS returns: Is George W. Bush's assessment of the state of education in this country accurate? Our Brooks Jackson checks the facts.