Key Model Projects 170,000 COVID-19 Deaths In U.S. By October.
TEXT: LET'S GET AFTER IT.</s>CUOMO: Everybody wants to reopen. But be clear, reopening does not mean that the COVID pandemic is over. Cases are climbing. We're past the 2 million case mark. And this is not about simply doing more counting. It's about contagion. Let's look at hospitalizations. Vaughn, put the graph up. Look at these hotspot states, South Carolina, Texas, Arizona. I'm going to get you a graphic on them. In all three of those places, South Carolina not - not so impressive. But Texas and Arizona, you're going to see big growth in hospitalizations. That's not about counting. It's about contagion. And, of course, the death toll continues to rise, OK? You see here. This is in Texas. You see? Hospitalizations, OK? You see up, up, up, up, up, up, all right? That's not about counting. Put up the next State. All right. Arizona, you'll see same kind of thing. South Carolina, you'll see it more flat. I'll show you both. Don't worry about it, all right? Look, there's Arizona, OK? I mean pretty scary. We're going to dig deeper into Arizona. We have to figure out what's going on there. This isn't just rolling across the country. There's something else going on there. We'll look at it. And then you have to, of course, focus on death toll. The latest model used by the White House is predicting the toll could hit a 170,000 by October. That would be 50,000-plus more lives lost in just the next four months. Let's bring in Dr. William Schaffner. Always good to see you, Doc.</s>DR. WILLIAM SCHAFFNER, INFECTIOUS DISEASE EXPERT, VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER, CDC ADVISER: Good to be with you, Chris.</s>CUOMO: The idea, of why this is happening, this should not be a surprise. We were hoping to get a break in the summer months. But reopening can kind of cancel out the break that you thought you'd get, by being outside, and having better weather, for transmission advantage, if it's not done correctly, yes?</s>SCHAFFNER: Oh, for sure. COVID's not taking a summer vacation. It's actually having new opportunities to spread. But, of course, we knew that would happen once we opened up, and we were talking about how you had to balance that, opening it up for all the economic, social, and cultural advantages, which was absolutely necessary. But we had to do it carefully, in order to not make too much medical and public health damage, at the same time. This is a tricky matter. And if people are carefree, rather than careful, well then you'll see an increase in cases. And I'm with you. I think these hospitalization numbers are the ones that are the most ominous and reliable. Then going up here, there, not everywhere yet, thank goodness, we have to be on the alert.</s>CUOMO: The projection that the White House relies on that shows 57,000 more people projected to die from COVID in the next four months. What does that suggest to you, in terms of why that would be happening?</s>SCHAFFNER: Well obviously, more opportunities for people to get close to each other, whether in small groups, or larger groups, that's an opportunity for this virus to spread. It loves to get close to people, and spread from one to another. And if you do it in groups, it can spread widely and more quickly. So, that's a substantial, it's just a model, but nonetheless, it's a substantial number anticipated during what we're supposed to be or hoped for the quieter months.</s>CUOMO: Hey, you know, Doc, one of the reasons I rely on you, and we've talked about this before, on- and off-camera, is this stuff gets really confusing really fast for people. And that's if everything that's told to them is accurate. You know, we've had a change in masks. We've had a change in distance. We've had a change in viral load. We've had a change in duration. You know, everything keeps changing as you guys learn about things. And I understand that. But it's confusing for people. And then today, the CDC Director, Tom Frieden, said we're not focusing on the most important trends. We're giving too much weight to numbers that have little meaning, case count numbers, number of tests conducted, obviously former Director of the CDC, Tom Frieden, he'd be out in an afternoon, if he was in there right now, talking this way, if you're not on - on the bus with Trump, you're out, test positivity rates. Are we focusing on the wrong things? And if so, why, and what are the right things?</s>SCHAFFNER: Well I think it's an accumulation of things. And I think testing provides some information. But you got to look at it with care. Whom are we testing? Are we focused on high-risk populations? Then we have to take that into account because we'll find many, many more cases. If you start testing people who have no symptoms, and are at low risk, obviously you won't find as many cases. But you and I both like that number that we just talked about, people who are hospitalized, with laboratory diagnosed-COVID, because for the last several months, we've had enough testing capacity to test those people. And so, those are good hard numbers. Watch those trends. As we say, it's a bit of a lagging indicator. It lags a little bit behind the actual infection by a week, week and a half. But it's a solid indicator of how we're doing. And it also is a measure of the stress on the healthcare system. So, that's a very useful indicator.</s>CUOMO: Yes. I totally agree with that because that lets you know what your capacity is, in terms of what else you can handle, and those are the real cases. Not to disrespect anybody who had it, but I include myself in that disrespect, if that's what I'm doing. There were a couple of days where I was afraid I'd become one of those hospitalizations, but I didn't. And if people can deal with this at home, that's one kind of illness. If you have to be in the hospital, it's a whole different layer of potential outcomes. That's why I think it deserves acute focus. Dr. Schaffner, thank you very much. I'll probably call on you, if not tonight, tomorrow morning, to get your help on Arizona.</s>SCHAFFNER: Will be glad (ph).</s>CUOMO: What's - what's happening there is worrying experts. We've got to take a deeper look. I'd love to get your help on that. God bless. Have a good night.</s>SCHAFFNER: Good night.</s>CUOMO: All right, now again, you know, what do you do in a time like this, if you're a leader? Trying to send the right message about the pandemic, and what's going to happen. You're telling people to wear masks. You're telling them to go slow. You're telling them to be careful. You're telling them to watch what's going on, right? All deliberate speed. Not this President! Rally Time! The worst thing you could do in the middle of this pandemic. And, by the way, he's having people sign a release form. Isn't that nice? "Please come. But if anything happens, go away." What a familiar situation for so many of his business endeavors? He's taken a lot of heat. But he doesn't care. He doesn't care. And the question becomes, where is he going to kick it off, and on what day? Juneteenth, in Tulsa, do you know what Juneteenth is about? Do you know what happened in Tulsa, the site of one of the worst race massacres in American history? But some are saying "No, no, no, you have it wrong. The President's doing the right thing." We have one - one of his defenders, a Congressman, who represents Tulsa, next.</s>TEXT: CUOMO PRIME TIME.