Key Model Forecasts Dates That States Could Ease Restrictions.
CAMEROTA: The key model that the White House has been using predicts a slightly lower final death toll for coronavirus in the United States, and for the first time, it is projecting dates when certain states could perhaps ease those stay-at-home restrictions. So, joining us is Professor Ali Mokdad from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Professor, Mokdad, great to see you here. Let's talk about those states. You've identified four states that could, you think, open first, even by May 4th. I believe those are Hawaii, Montana, Vermont and West Virginia. So, how do you know that those states could be safe enough to reopen without seeing a spike in cases?</s>ALI MOKDAD FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON'S INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH METRICS AND EVALUATION: Good morning. Now, that reporting is a level that a state can comfortably move to a containment stage where we predict that will be one case per million, and we assume they have the capacity and workforce from public health to trace that case, who came in contact with it. So, for a state like my state, about eight million would expect like a level when they have eight cases every day coming up. They can investigate them. They have enough power to do so. That's what we're telling people, be ready to move to a containment stage. Still, you have to test, and you have to be vigilant and you have to be very careful.</s>CAMEROTA: Do you think that states have that testing capacity to prove that they have one case per million a day?</s>MOKDAD: So that's a very good question, and I want to distinguish the two questions that people are debating right now in the media and what we are talking. What we are talking is once you have a workforce that you release that workforce. You have the capacity first to test it, and then you send them to the workforce. Now, you are monitoring that. That is a kind of surveillance going on -- public health surveillance and then you can detect a case, and then if you detect that case, you have the manpower to go and follow up on that case, and this is what we're proposing one per million, we feel like it's a comfortable number. It would be able to contain at that level.</s>CAMEROTA: Yes, but I mean, I guess I'm just trying to figure out what the reality is. Do Montana, Hawaii, Vermont and West Virginia have that testing capacity right now to make those determinations?</s>MOKDAD: Yes, based on their workforce, the available number of workforce, that's the estimation we feel they can do it. So, we looked at this from a data source available workforce, public health workforce in every state, and there is an association called National Association for County Commissioner who has looked and they have a number -- an estimated number of the workforce and that's what we have used that we feel states are ready at that level to be able to do it. But, again, Alisyn, this is a different debate than how many tests -- we have to test the workforce to go back to work. These two are different issues.</s>CAMEROTA: You know, some researchers have taken issue with your model. I'm talking about the University of Texas at Austin. They say your predictions could fall far short of the reality. I'll just read a little portion of this from "The New York Times" this weekend, they say, "The IHME's model" your model, " ... masks some significant concerns. The institute's projection runs through August 4th describing only the first wave of the epidemic. Without a vaccine, the virus is expected to circulate for years and the death tally will rise over time." "The gains to date were achieved only by shutting down the country, a situation that cannot continue indefinitely." So what about their concerns that August 4th doesn't -- isn't long enough and the death toll could be much higher?</s>MOKDAD: So, that's a very good concern. Listen, we are -- we have a model that now is pulling the mortality data and we see it almost every state is coming down in terms of their epidemic. Some of them are a little bit late. But we see the level coming down and we're following the model until August 4th. Will, our model accounts for a second wave after August 4th? No. We don't have the data right now if there is a second wave. We don't have the data out for you, but yes, we have to keep monitoring on a daily basis and I don't think our models are going to go away in June or July if we don't see any more cases, we have to be vigilant and still do the surveillance and then we have to beef up our capacity and prepare for a second wave. Alisyn, people have different models and you know, an academic like me will come and say my model is better than everybody else. That's not the debate here. We're not pitting models against each other. The issue here, all models says that this is a dangerous epidemic. We're all susceptible for it and we have to be very careful. But at the same time, what we are proposing at the I.H.M.E. is when can we safely open the businesses because the capacity at hand and the workforce at hand in the states to do the testing and the proper surveillance that the C.D.C. does on a regular basis.</s>CAMEROTA: Yes, yes. I understand that there's always academic competition. I'm just trying to set our expectations, and set our viewers' expectations. So, is it your model that suggests that the peak of deaths for the country has passed, because the University of Texas model believes that the peak of deaths in this country will be May 7th? Do you believe it has already passed?</s>MOKDAD: Yes. Now, according to our model, it has and so far the data that we have been following, we have been following it exactly extremely well. Our models have been following the deaths accurately. The other thing, Alisyn that we need to be careful and let the audience be aware of, right now there's a change in looking at the numbers of cases of COVID-19 where presumptive cases are being added right now. So, you'll see an increased number of reporting but for a curve for an epidemic it is going to remain the same and the worse it behind.</s>CAMEROTA: Okay. Professor Ali Mokdad, we appreciate you explaining your modeling system to us. Thank you very much.</s>MOKDAD: Thank you. Thank you.</s>CAMEROTA: New research suggests the coronavirus testing needs to more than triple in order to safely reopen the country. So one of the doctors behind that research is going to join us to explain, next.