Trump and Biden Battle it Out for Swing State Voters
JOHN KING, CNN INSIDE POLITICS: On race relations, a lead on the Supreme Court and a giant lead on health care. The big issues facing the voters, this is the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, advantage Biden. Why do we focus so much on Pennsylvania, because it was so important to the president four years ago and because of this math. Look at this, 269-169. If Joe Biden takes, that it's game over. It's 20 electoral votes. As the president tries to find a comeback path, he needs the big ones like Florida, the big ones like Ohio, the big ones like Pennsylvania. It's hard to make it up for the president if he loses this 20 right there. That's why Pennsylvania is so critical. That's why both campaigns, listen here, throwing a lot of money into T.V. ads.</s>JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If you elect me, your taxes are going to be raised, not cut.</s>UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What does that mean for you? More taxes taken out of your paycheck, an economy in ruins. President Trump is bringing jobs back.</s>BIDEN: To our seniors, social security is a sacred obligation, a sacred promise made. The current president is threatening to break that promise. I will not let that happen.</s>KING: The Democratic pollster, Margie Omero, Republican pollster Neil Newhouse join us now. Thank you both for being here. Neil, I want to start with you just to emphasize the point. Look, it's one state. The president has other paths to get to 270. But given the makeup, the composition of Pennsylvania, how important it was in 2016, when you look at the polling numbers that show Biden's consistent lead, nine points in that new poll today, how difficult does that tell you the president's path to a comeback this year?</s>NEIL NEWHOUSE, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: John, there's no question the president is behind. I mean, every poll shows it right now. And in order to win this race, he's got to do the same thing he did in 2016, which is essentially, you know, thread the Electoral College needle. I mean, this is a -- it's a very tough challenge. But it all starts with tonight. If he's going to come back, if he's going to come back and win the race, it has to start tonight. He has to put Joe Biden on the defensive, and he's got to make the case for his presidency.</s>KING: And, Margie, you know, we all lived through 2016, so that gives Democrats a sense of jitters, I Guess, is one word. I could use less polite words. But when you look at those polling, there's no question, as Neil just noted, Joe Biden has the advantage heading into this first debate and he has an advantage many would say is bigger than the advantage Hillary Clinton had four years ago. But you do look around and Democrats are nervous because of that history. This is a Monmouth University poll just looking at swing counties, right, counties that is swing back and forth in presidential politics, Trump, 47, Biden, 46. If you -- when you look at the numbers and you look at the map, what is the one concern you hope Joe Biden deals with tonight?</s>MARGIE OMERO, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER: Well, you know, I think we're all going to be watching to see what the president says about a whole host of things. I mean, you showed the advertising ads on Pennsylvania. It's really rich that he is talking about people's tax bill and paying too much in taxes given what we've learned about how little he's paid in taxes. The numbers -- I agree with Neil. The numbers are consistent. They are consistent in Pennsylvania. They're consistent nationally. They are consistent in states that were not even really considered battle grounds. They are consistent not just at the top of the ticket but in the Senate races and congressional races and everybody who feels mobilized across the country. I think the main issues is making sure people vote, that they know how to vote, that they feel comfortable voting given the changes in voting that they vote in person or vote by mail, vote absentee, that's the main challenge for both candidates. And certainly it's one that a smart campaign would really focus on.</s>KING: And if you look at the numbers, both of you know them better than me, but, again, this from the Monmouth poll. How likely will had the debate change your mind about which candidate you're going to support? Very likely or somewhat likely, only 13 percent say that, not likely, 87 percent. So, Neil, most voters, not surprising, the numbers were very similar four years ago. We live in a polarized world. If you're an incumbent and you are behind, how do you get people? What is the key to get people to give you a second look?</s>NEWHOUSE: Well, first of all, 13 percent is more than enough to change the course of this election.</s>KING: Yes, it is.</s>NEWHOUSE: No question about it. But, you know, John, we've been talking about this for months, and the need for the Trump campaign to turn this from a referendum on Donald Trump and his presidency to a choice. And that's what he has to do tonight. He has to demonstrate there's a choice between these two candidates. And he's got to put Joe Biden on the defensive. There's no question this is his -- maybe his last best chance to begin to turn this around.</s>KING: Last best chance, a good way to put it. And when had you look at it, Margie, again, it's the first debate but the first one tends to get a bigger audience. The first one is if people are making their mind, especially with all the early voting. A lot of people have already voted even before this first debate. And many will be doing their vote in the next few days. If you look at it right now, we can go state-by-state, but you can also look at sort of the different voting groups. The president has an advantage among men, among white voters, among white voters without college degrees. Joe Biden has a giant lead among women, voters of color, white voters with degrees and he's doing very well among young voters, which is typical for Democrats, but his performing, seniors have been a constituency trended towards the Republicans in recent years, Biden is doing well. Again, in a debate context, do you walk in, do you tell your candidate as he is about to walk on to the stage, this is the one thing you must do, and if it's Joe Biden what is it?</s>OMERO: Look, I think he needs to demonstrate the way he is not like the president, and that is showing compassion, showing understanding, showing mastery of the facts, showing real focus on the -- you know, hundreds of thousands of families who have lost someone from the coronavirus. We have now polling out today that shows that 40 percent of Americans say that someone in their household has lost jobs or wages or hours as a result of the coronavirus. Joe Biden can speak to that. President Trump doesn't seem to.</s>KING: Margie and Neil, I appreciate your perspective. We'll continue this conversation Five weeks until Election Day, a big debate night tonight. Thank you both for helping us understand it. When we come back, back to the coronavirus, it is hitting everywhere, everywhere you live, states big and small, including South Dakota right now experiencing a surge.