U.K. Parliament Wants Alternative to "Backstop"; U.S.-China Trade Talks; Bitter, Dangerous Cold Grips Parts of U.S.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Hello everybody, thank you for being with us. I'm John Vause. You're watching CNN NEWSROOM. Ahead this hour, protesters return to the streets of Venezuela demanding an end to Nicolas Maduro's regime while the U.S. tries to bolster the legitimacy of the man who would be the next head of state. How many ways can they say no? European leaders did not waste any time rejecting new Brexit talks as concern grows the U.K. could crash out of the E.U. without a deal. And Donald Trump opens a Twitter war on his own intelligence chief claiming they should go back to school after a public takedown of the U.S. President To begin this hour, Venezuela and the growing pressure on the embattled Nicolas Maduro to step down as president. Thousands of protesters turned out on the streets of Caracas responding to a call from the leader of the National Assembly and self-declared president Juan Guaido. In a telephone call Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump congratulated Guaido for assuming the role of interim president last week. The U.S. had more than a dozen other countries consider Moduro's reelected last year to a second term is illegitimate and recognized Guaido interim head of state. Chris Sabatini from Columbia University's School of International Public Affairs is with us now from New York. Chris, Juan Guaido, he has written an opinion piece in the New York Times and partly explains why he's in fact the legitimate interim president arguing because you know, the last part of the international community considers Maduro's re-election as illegitimate, that gave him the authority as you know, the head of the National Assembly to assume the role of interim president. He writes this. My ascension as interim president is based on Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution. According to which, if at the outset of a new term there is no elected head of state, power is vested in the president of the National Assembly until free and transparent elections take place. This is why the oath I took on January 23rd cannot be considered a self-Proclamation. It was all of my own accord that I extreme the function of president that day but in adherence to the Constitution. OK, so just purely from a legal and a constitutional point of view, is he unsafe or he's on shaky ground?</s>CHRIS SABATINI, PROFESSOR, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: Well, first of all, his point about that the media is portraying him as a self-proclaimed president is a good one and it's true. We can argue the constitutionality of this but the taglines self-proclaimed president makes this sound like he just put on a presidential sash, stood out in a balcony and proclaimed himself to the people. He didn't. You know, there is a constitutional basis for this. Now -- and he represents the only democratically elected institution in Venezuela right now. So arguably the only democratically legitimate institution. Now Article 233, John, that you mentioned basically says the president is incapacitated. Now, the question is having a president that is -- was elected under clearly fraudulent elections, that were moved, that were gamed, that had -- that were denounced by over fifty governments, does that amount to him being capacitated? That's really -- that's a legal issue, but that's really what the -- it's the -- that's the read that Guaido is leaning on in the interpretation.</s>VAUSE: OK. So there isn't you know, a legal basis there which you can certainly argue you know, the strength of. OK, the White House welcomed a senior diplomat for Venezuela on Wednesday. He was appointed by Juan Guaido. This is Carlos Vecchio. He was greeted in the Roosevelt Room by the Vice President. I will say the U.S. President telephoning Guaido to great him on becoming you know, the interim president, these are all gestures intended to boost the credibility of Guaido as you know, the head of state. Is this a good strategy by the United States?</s>SABATINI: Well, let's take a step back because it's complicated, John. I think this was a bold move diplomatically. And we have to remember that Canada and eleven countries in Latin America have recognized Guaido even the socialist international, the party network globally has accepted that National Assembly as being legitimate. So there's -- it is a good diplomatic move. It's clearly a collective effort to put pressure on the Maduro government to have some peaceful democratic transition. Now, to your point though, John, is it so good to have this administration embraced Guaido and Carlos Vecchio so closely? I'm not so sure. Obviously the U.S. has a very spotty history when it comes to intervention in the region stretching back even to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. So you know, it risks making this government is legitimate. We could claim that it is Guaido, it risk making it look like a U.S. puppet or an interlocutor for U.S. interests. And so you know, I think this administration would be wise to step back and let other governments embrace it. We have to meet with Prime Minister Trudeau or something like that because the U.S., it is a damaged brand sometimes when it comes to objective legitimate support for transitions and change in Latin America.</s>VAUSE: Yes. The reputation isn't the best at times.</s>SABATINI: No.</s>VAUSE: After meeting at the White House, Carlos Vecchio did the television rounds and then include appearing on CNN. This is part of what he said.</s>CARLOS VECCHIO, VENEZUELAN OPPOSITION CHARGE D'AFFAIRES: In my view, the majority of the military force are with us. They are just stopped by a small elite on the top of the military institution. But at the end of the day they are Venezuelans. They have family. They are suffering the same thing that we are suffering as ordinary people. So at the end of the day in my view, with this pressure that we are putting on the streets from our institution of the National Assembly and from the international community, I hope they can just be the in the right side and supporting and what our Constitution says.</s>VAUSE: OK, so Vecchio representing Guaido believes the military is with them. We also saw Nicolas Maduro appearing on state television Wednesday and he was also out there rallying the support of the military</s>NICOLAS MADURO, PRESIDENT, VENEZUELA: (Speaking Spanish)</s>VENEZUELAN MILITARY: (Speaking Spanish)</s>VAUSE: OK. So the basic question here is where is the loyalty of the military right now?</s>SABATINI: Well, first of all there are two militaries. There are the soldiers and non-conscripted officers who truly do not have benefit to a lot of the corruption that this army and armed forces and national guard have been -- have access to. They are suffering. I mean, in the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, food and medicine, they are suffering and their families are suffering and their salaries aren't keeping up with inflation. But then there's the officer corps. And Maduro has done a very wise thing if you want to build an autocracy is what he's done he's promoted an inordinate number of generals. There are more generals in Venezuela than there are in NATO countries combined, OK. So what he's done is he's promoted and built a loyalty within the officer corps. And that loyalty is not just based on their ties to his -- him personally but also he doles out basically access to corruption, the best -- the most plumbed position to have in the Venezuelan military is a border of Colombia because you get to extort money from narco-traffickers for cocaine flights. But the military is also involved in food distribution. It's involved -- it runs the oil company, PDVSA which was recently sanctioned by the United States. It is rife with corruption and the question is, will these high-level military ops be willing to break with Maduro given they're going to be subject to criminal investigations and trials and sentences perhaps, they will -- and they will lose access to a pretty rich resource. So yes, we're talking to militaries. It's a tough sell for some of these guys.</s>VAUSE: Yes. More generals than NATO. That's a fact I did not know and it says a lot as you say. Chris, great to have you with us. I really appreciate your insights. Thank you.</s>SABATINI: Thank you very much, John.</s>VAUSE: At least now there is agreement in the U.K. Parliament and that is for the Prime Minister Theresa May to return to Brussels and come back with a better Brexit deal. In particular, there is a majority in favor of an alternative to the unpopular backstop provision. The part of the Brexit withdraw deal meant to keep the Irish border open but already the E.U. is saying no, won't happen, not a chance, no way together which means the chances at the U.K. crashing out of the E.U. without a trade deal in place are more likely. And members of parliament have agreed to something else. That would be bad. A no deal should not be an option. But that amendment passes a non-binding measure more aspirational than anything else which kind of irritated the Prime Minister.</s>THERESA MAY, PRIME MINISTER, UNITED KINGDOM: That's not the house did vote to reject no deal but that cannot be the end of the story. The only way -- the right on the gentleman says of course not. I think that's -- I think that's the first time he's actually accepted that you can't just vote to reject no deal, you have to vote for a deal otherwise you leave with no deal.</s>VAUSE: The E.U. seems almost as frustrated with the U.K. as it complains especially over the Irish backstop while fairly to offer any concrete proposals in response to that. Now, the European Council President Donald Tusk tweeted, "The E.U. position is clear and consistent. The withdrawal agreement is not open for renegotiation." Yesterday we found out what the U.K. doesn't want but we still don't know what the U.K. does want. That point was driven home by the head of the European Commissioner Jean-Claude Juncker.</s>JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER, PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN COMMISSION: Sometimes from time to time I have the impression that some hope that the 26 other countries will abandon the backstop and so Ireland at the last minute. But this is not a game and neither is it a simple bilateral issue. It goes to the heart of what being a member of the European Union means. Ireland's border is Europe's border and it is our union's priority.</s>VAUSE: But not everyone in the U.K. sees a no deal Brexit it on March 29th is Armageddon. Some economists even believe it could affect be a big boost for Britain's bottom line. Here's CNN's Nina dos Santos.</s>NINA DOS SANTOS, CNN EUROPE EDITOR: It's the biggest question on Britain's minds and one their Parliament's tried to make sure the country would not have to answer.</s>MAY: The house did vote to reject no deal but that cannot --</s>DOS SANTOS: What would happen if the U.K. left the E.U. without a deal? The official predictions have been sobering. From immediate shortages of food and medicines as ports block up to a nine percent fall in GDP. A 30 percent drop in house prices and sharp interest rate hikes. In other words disaster says this campaigner who fought for Parliament to have the final say.</s>GINA MILLER, CAMPAIGNER AND FOUNDER, LEAD NOT LEAVE: No deal will be an absolute catastrophe. No deal means no transition. So that means in the morning of the 30th of March, everything would have to be in place. So we would have to start from scratch. And also this idea that we were -- we will be able to replicate exactly the same is impossible. Because if you think about it we are 65 million people compared to half a billion in the E.U. so we just don't have the same clouds.</s>DOS SANTOS: But with unemployment at a 43-three year low and exports still growing, Brexiters say the country is well equipped.</s>EDGAR MILLER, CONVENER, ECONOMIST FOR FREE TRADE: It shouldn't be thought of as no deal. It should be thought of as a different deal. We, in fact, have generally referred to it as a world trade deal where you stop the obsession about trying to have a special arrangement with the</s>E.U. DOS SANTOS: The E.U.'s own research predicts the line share of growth over the next decade will come from outside the bloc and levers want Britain to be able to capitalize on that trend.</s>E. MILLER: The biggest benefit is that you can do free trade deals with all the countries in the world and we run -- we calculate that to be about a four percent increase in GDP. Secondly, you have your own regulation that is tailored to the U.K. You can get rid of the dead hand of E.U. regulation and we calculate that, it's about another two percentage points increase in</s>GDP. DOS SANTOS: Whether no deal Brexit ends up being a blessing or a curse depends to a large extent on whether the U.K. can trade under World Trade Organization rules after leaving the E.U. Now, aside from the fact that that could make a whole range of goods including some of these clothes on this London High Street subject to significant tariffs, it's also unclear as to whether the WTO rules today would need to be brought up to date with more modern aspects of the British economy.</s>G. MILLER: Leaving with no deal means leaving every single E.U. institution and we would have to have those replicated on the morning of the 30th of March. So that's a medicals agency and a chemicals agency, the list goes on and on. We have not one ready.</s>DOS SANTOS: As ever with Brexit, the theory paints one picture of the practicalities another and until March the 29th, no one will really know if no deal is or isn't the way to go. Nina dos Santos, CNN London.</s>VAUSE: This time it's different. Donald Trump has criticized and question his intelligence chiefs people but not like this. Ahead, it's all out this time. It's all out in the open and the President publicly standing by his assessment of what is and is not a national security risk. Plus staring out the polar vortex, our winter blast paralyzing parts the U.S. with temperatures plunging way below zero.