Did ISIS Bring Down Russian Jet?; Donald Trump Tops Brand New GOP Poll
DON LEMON, CNN TONIGHT SHOW HOST: It is breaking news and there is new cell phone video tonight, here it is. It's from the Russian media outlet life news of the smoking ruins of a Russian jetliner that crashed with 224 people on board. Did ISIS bring down this plane? This is CNN Tonight. I'm Don Lemon. Here is what we know right now, U.S. intelligence points to a bomb planted somewhere on the plane by ISIS or its affiliates. Britain calls it a significant possibility. The U.K. and Ireland suspending all flights from the popular Sharm el-Sheikh Resort, stranding thousands of tourists and the candidates are also weighing in tonight. In the meantime, Donald Trump tops a brand-new poll just ahead of Ben Carson, and NBC releases this Saturday Night Live promo.</s>CECILY STRONG, SNL STAR: Donald had promise that for the whole show he is not going to brag or he's the best at anything, right Donald?</s>DONALD TRUMP, (R) U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: That's right, Cecily. And I'm going to do the best job anyone's ever done not saying it.</s>LEMON: All this plus Quentin Tarantino breaks his silence tonight. There is a lot to get to a whole lot and we're going to get to all of it. But we're going to begin to our breaking news. CNN's Ben Wedeman is live for us in Cairo. Also, Pamela Brown working her sources from the CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta. Ben, to you first. It is almost dawn on Thursday morning in Egypt. If this was terror, as officials believe. What did ISIS do and how were they able to bring this plane down? What do you know about the plot?</s>BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, what we know is from these unnamed American sources, officials who say that somehow ISIS managed to smuggle an explosive device on board the plane when it was at the airport at Sharm el-Sheikh. And that somehow or rather it exploded 300 kilometers north of Sharm el-Sheikh. Now, this is what American officials are saying. It's not at all clear what actually happened. The Egyptian civil aviation authority put out a very brief statement today saying they are running the investigation and further information will be made available in due course. The Egyptians have been very tight lipped and about this investigation. And generally, downplaying the possibility that this could be terrorism, terrorism by ISIS, obviously, tourism is a mainstay of the economy here, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula. So, Egyptian officials are very wary of creating an atmosphere in which tourists start to cancel their vacation plans, although the fact of the matter is, given the media attention, probably that is already afoot, Don.</s>LEMON: Yes. Speaking of that, I want to know what the security is like, Ben, at the Sharm el-Sheikh Airport, if there could be -- if we could there, would they do -- would it do other places as well, what are they doing there?</s>WEDEMAN: Well, Don, you know, I lived in Egypt for 14 years and I've been through that airport more times than I can count. It's a resort destination. The security is very relaxed, shall we say. We don't add -- we're not able to see what's going on behind the scenes. But the only person I know who was ever stopped at the Sharm el-Sheikh Airport was a friend of mine who was stopped by Egyptian security, they said because she wasn't smiling when she left.</s>LEMON: Oh, goodness. All right, Ben. I want you to stand by. Let's go Pamela Brown now. Pamela, you know, what changed today to make both the British and U.S. authorities to say this is one of the leading theories as to why this plane crash?</s>PAMELA BROWN, CNN JUSTICE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Don, to be clear, no conclusion have been reached but we've learned from officials there was chatter intercepted by the U.S. intelligence community after that plane crash. Suggesting ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula could have been responsible for putting a bomb on the plane, which is at least part of the reason why officials are leaning to the bomb theory that is also based and part on monitoring of internal messages of the terrorist group. But because there hasn't been corroboration with forensic evidence from the crime scene there, U.S. officials are still being very cautious. But it is clear, just from talking to people they're extremely worried that this could be a reality that ISIS could have planted a bomb on that plane. Don.</s>LEMON: And if it is confirmed that ISIS is behind this, what does it say about how their operations and their capabilities are expanding?</s>BROWN: It would be very significant for the U.S. intelligence community if it turns out that ISIS was capable of building a bomb that could bring brown an airplane. Up until now, Don, the U.S. intelligence community is known that ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula there one of the most active brands of devices has bomb-making capabilities. But bringing down a plane takes another level of sophistication that is a departure from what the U.S. intelligence community has seen from the terrorist group. That would raise the concern substantially because a lot of what ISIS has been focused on is taking over territory. This would indicate that its goals are expanding if turns out that the group was responsible for that crash.</s>LEMON: Why do authorities believe it was an inside job?</s>BROWN: There is additional a classified intelligence, according to my colleague, Elise Labott, that supports this theory, Don, of an airport worker putting the bomb on the plane. Now we don't know what that intelligence says. But what we do know is that officials have scrubbed the passenger manifests and the crew and the passengers have checked out. So, that as lean investigators to believe a possible theory that someone planted a bomb on that plane that would detonate once it reaches a certain altitude and only certain people would have access to the plane. Don.</s>LEMON: All right. Thank you very much. Ben Wedeman, Pamela Brown for that and our breaking news. Now, to other breaking news story. Donald Trump back on top in a brand new national poll of republican voters. And joining me now to discuss is Charles Hurt, a columnist for the Washington Times, Mercedes Schlapp is also here, she is the co-founder of Cove Strategies and former media spokesperson for President George W. Bush. And CNN political commentator, Ryan Lizza, Washington correspondent for The New Yorker. It's good to have all of you here. Ryan, there is a new poll out tonight, as I mentioned; Fox News has conducted entirely after the CNBC debate. Let's put the numbers now. It shows Trump is on top, 26 percent, that is followed by Ben Carson, 23 percent. You know, it's a persistent lead at the top of the polls. He's not going anywhere, no matter how people try to write him off. We talk about that. Why do people try to write him off and he's not going anywhere?</s>RYAN LIZZA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, Sony did tried to write him off occasionally in the past. I think you're absolutely right, Don. His staying power...</s>LEMON: That was meant for you, Ryan. I'm coming for you tonight.</s>LIZZA: His staying power is a constant in this campaign, big story of the campaign. He has now been at the top of the polls with an occasional number two placement in a few of the state polls in a few of the national polls, longer than any of the so-called fad candidates in previous cycles, right? Howard Dean, or Herman Cain, or Michelle Bachmann. All of the candidates that kind of surge and then dropped hasn't happen with Donald Trump. He gets a steady quarter to a third of the republican vote. And, you know, I think at this point you have to believe that's going to -- that's going to continue until someone starts spending some money to make a strong, sustained case against him. That's how a candidate -- that's how a front runner gets taken down and so far none of his opponents have been willing to do that.</s>LEMON: Yes. They have spent a lot of money. Listen, there are cleared tiers to these candidates here, Mercedes. At the top, Trump and Carson.</s>MERCEDES SCHLAPP, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Sure.</s>LEMON: And then the more establishment candidates led by Rubio and Cruz, each with 11. Rubio has 11, Cruz has 11 percent, as well. Jeb Bush at 4, and the rest of the pack in single digits. The debate seemed to help Rubio and Cruz, just a little bit, but it didn't hurt Trump and Carson, even though people said, you know, they were -- they don't talk much. Carson was kind of lackluster. It didn't hurt them.</s>SCHLAPP: No. Well, you have to think about it this way, both Trump and Carson, they survived the debate. So, they didn't have a stellar performance but they didn't bomb either. So, you know, the debate have...</s>LEMON: Is it better in some of these debates if they really don't say that much?</s>SCHLAPP: Sometimes it's better to be quiet than say something and put your foot in your mouth, don't you think, Don. So, I think in this case what is fascinating about Donald Trump and we saw this even yesterday when the first set of polls came out that Ben Carson was ahead. What did Donald Trump do? He went out and basically changed the narrative. When he spoke to George Stephanopoulos in the morning he basically said, you know what? Ben Carson doesn't have the right temperament to be president. So, again, he is masterful at being able to change people's perception about these different candidates. You know, he goes on the attack with Marco Rubio on his finances, questioning whether Marco is able to manage the economy because he can't manage his credit cards. Again, putting these doubts in the voters' minds. And guess what, when you look at this race in Kentucky where Matt Kevin won, it said something very powerful. This is a political noble, a wealthy man.</s>LEMON: My old friend, Matt Bevin.</s>SCHLAPP: Yes. And guess what? What does this show that there is urge that this want that the GOP voters are out there and that they want this sort of outsider type of personality.</s>LEMON: OK. Let's get Charles Hurt heard on here. Charles, my colleague, Dylan Byers, points out that Chris Christie now has 2.25 percent, that's an average in the last national polls and he may not make this main stage. Everyone said, you know, he has -- he hit back so hard against all the candidates. And why are you talking about Fantasy Football and all of that, but Jeb must -- Jeb Bush be counting his lucky stars that he is still up there.</s>CHARLES HURT, WASHINGTON TIMES COLUMNIST: Indeed, I think he is. And really and truly, that last debate was Chris Christie's absolute best performance of the campaign so far. He's been a huge disappointment to everybody. And so, for him to get this news, you know, tonight, today, basically, that it looks like he, and perhaps even Mike Huckabee won't make the main stage next week for the debate is really bad news. But, you know, looking deeper into the numbers, you know, I think that obviously the top line numbers about the horse race numbers in that -- in that Fox poll are the most important lines. But if you go one layer deeper, I think you get into something that is even more interesting and that is that the number of people who pick Donald Trump as their second choice, Ben Carson, leads that pack. Donald Trump is in second place right behind him. What that means is, that there are -- he has the second highest number of people who are presently with a different candidate but willing to fall back to Trump. And that really puts a lot to the whole establishment argument that we have heard from the beginning, Don, about how there is this hard-set ceiling that Donald Trump can never reach above. Well, that is not true. There is a whole another, you know, if something happens to Ben Carson, for example, there are a lot of voters apparently, who will then turn to Donald Trump as their second choice.</s>LEMON: There used to be a saying in news that you want to be the most liked and most hated person. That was the perfect position to be in if you are a commentator or a newscaster. So, maybe that's Trump's position and that's a good position to be in. But let's talk about these terror attacks and ISIS claiming responsibility. The other candidates spoke out about it. Listen.</s>JEB BUSH, (R) U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: ISIS has a desired strategy to put the black flag of ISIS in the White House. And a plan to destroy Western civilization. That's a law enforcement exercise this. We need strategy to take them out.</s>LEMON: But you know what, Mercedes, the GOP front runner, Dr. Ben Carson was asked how he would respond as president to make sure that ISIS doesn't get a bomb on the plane coming to the United States. Here's how he responded.</s>BEN CARSON, (R) U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Well, you know, I think our people are actually doing a very good job already and we haven't had any bombs on our planes for that reason. Obviously you don't want to relax the surveillance that we have.</s>LEMON: That was -- that was his entire answer.</s>SCHLAPP: Right.</s>LEMON: But to be fair he was speaking after a book signing. But does that answer raise any concerns for you about his grasp on terror and foreign policy?</s>SCHLAPP: Well, I think I've been concerned for a while about Ben Carson's foreign policy positions. I think just recently, he spoke about how, you know, Saudi Arabia should have turned in Osama Bin Laden to the United States if we would have threatened them with saying we wanted to go energy independent. I mean, these are not necessarily very well thought out foreign policy positions. And I think that you can't afford to be a -- especially as a Commander-in-Chief with that a prime -- when the primary roles of a president to really you have to have a deep understanding of what is going on, especially in areas like the Middle East. And I just find that his answers are pretty much half baked.</s>LEMON: All right, every one. Stay with me. When we come right back, Donald Trump is getting ready for his gig hosting Saturday Night Live this weekend. And having some fun this in this promo with cast member Cecily Strong.</s>STRONG: Due to FCC regulations Trump can only appear in this promo for less than four seconds. Isn't that right?</s>TRUMP: That's correct, Cecily. I'll be hosting Saturday Night...</s>STRONG: Time!