Democrats Gain in New Midterm Race Ratings
CABRERA: Get ready for midterm madness. In 100 days voters will deliver their verdict on President Trump's first year, two years now, in office. And while the political landscape could shift dramatically in three months, right now the wind is at Democrats' back. CNN's chief national correspondent John King explains.</s>JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: One hundred days now until the midterm elections a new CNN rankings, brand new rankings give the Democrats even more reason to feel bullish about their odds of retaking the big prize, control of the House of Representatives. To the campaign trail in a second. First, though, a reminder of the current state of play. Let's look at the House as we speak today. 235 Republicans. That's the majority. You see the red seats down here. Democrats in the minority with 193. But that's the state of play here in Washington. Let's take a look at our new rankings out on the campaign trail and you will see 235 Republican seats. Well, we rank only 158 of them as solid Republican going into the final stretch of the campaign. 29 likely, 18 lean Republican. You see the yellow, the gold? That's 27 toss-up seats. Strong number for the Democrats. 182 solid, nine likely, 12 leaning Democratic seats. So how do the Democrats get to the majority? Here is their dream scenario. Win the likelies, win the leans. If they could sweep these toss-ups, that's the gold down there, 230 if the Democrats essentially run the board. 230, well in excess of what they need to be the majority. Again, that's a dream-o vision. But it does show you how this is well within their reach heading into the final stretch. One of the reasons they're so bullish, let's take a closer look at the toss-up seats. See the red on top? Of the 27 toss-up seats, 25 are currently held by Republicans. 25 of the 27 toss-ups are currently Republican-held seats. Only two held by the Democrats. Again, with the wind at your back, a reason the Democrats are optimistic more Republican seats moving from the red into the competitive side of our map here. Another reason the Democrats are optimistic heading into the final hundred days, their standing today is even better than it was at the beginning of the year. They were optimistic then. Look at the Republican numbers. 177 solid to begin the year. Down to 158 solid now. More seats have moved from dark red, solid Republican, this way toward the Democrats. The Democratic numbers are up. 182 solid now, up from the beginning of the year. So this map looks good for the Democrats now at 100 days out. Even better than it was in January. A lot can happen between now and then, but heading into this final stretch, Democrats believe their odds are quite good of retaking the biggest prize this November, control of the House.</s>CABRERA: Our thanks to John King. Joining us now, CNN presidential historian Timothy Naftali and the Washington bureau chief for the "Chicago Sun-Times," Lynn Sweet. So, Tim, the traditional midterm dynamic, especially in one of these election years is that there are some flips going on, right? What do you think is going to happen this year, especially now that the economy is so strong?</s>TIM NAFTALI, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Oh, Ana, I can just see this clip being run over and over again when I make a prediction that turns out to be totally wrong. Here's what I think people should be looking for. Right now the president's approval rating is so low that if you compare that to presidents with similar low approval ratings in a midterm period you can expect to see a switch, a large number of seats go away from the president's party to another party. That's if we follow precedent, right? There's something else that's very interesting, however, which makes this different. I'm not saying it changes the outcome. It makes it different. The president is now in part running against his own party. In the sense that today's tweet, where he talks about he wants funding for the wall and he wants funding for tougher immigration laws, he's saying to Republicans, if you don't give me what I want I'm going to go out there and I'm going to campaign, I'm going to campaign for Trump people, people who only want what I want, which means the dynamic we're going to see in the fall is that not all Republicans are going to get the support of President Trump. And to hold on to his -- to hold on to the Republican majority in the House he needs every Republican to win. So --</s>CABRERA: That's an interesting dynamic when you take a look at how he has made enemies about -- with some in his own party.</s>NAFTALI: Yes.</s>CABRERA: But, Lynn, regardless of whether Republicans want the president to stay quiet or not, he apparently has no plans to do so. He's going speak his mind. Here's what he told FOX News.</s>DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You know, the famous quote, it's the economy, stupid. Well, if it's the economy, then we should do very well. I just don't know any reason why we shouldn't do well. The economy is the strongest ever and I think that's going to have a very positive impact and I am going to work very hard. I'll go six or seven days a week when we're 60 days out, and I will be campaigning for all of these great people that do have a difficult race and we think we're going to bring them over the line.</s>CABRERA: Lynn do you think he can do it? And where can he do it?</s>LYNN SWEET, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "CHICAGO SUN-TIMES": Well, I'll tell you one place I know he -- that Trump is going to be unwelcome, in one of the biggest competitive House races, it's in Illinois. It's the 6th Congressional District. Congressman Peter Roskam is fighting against Democrat Sean Casten. President Trump coming would be no help and would be a negative. Also if you look at of those 27 tossup seats that John King was talking about, the ones where you have Republicans running in districts won by Hillary Clinton and there are a handful of those, you won't see these candidates beseeching the president to come in and help them. Maybe case specific, Pence could help, Vice President Pence. So every House race is usually its own story. So in broad brush President Trump will not be welcome in every district. You know, by the time President Obama was in his second term, you know, he didn't have a calling card open in every place either. So you have to pick and choose. And that's what I think President Trump will discover. And he will be very powerful in the districts where he does need to nudge someone across the line. But those are districts probably that were going to be in his favor anyway.</s>CABRERA: The president has been tweeting a whole lot today, as we've been discussing. He's playing shutdown politics. He said, "I would be willing to shut down the government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for border security, which includes the wall. Must get rid of lottery, catch and release, et cetera, and finally go to the system of immigration based on merit. We need great people coming into our country." Tim, do you think Republicans really want to be talking about a shutdown 100 days before the election?</s>NAFTALI: No. But I think President Trump does. And I think President Trump is saying this because he believes the turnout will determine the midterms and he's going to turn out his base. And he is hoping that he can beat the odds in 2018 that he beat in 2016. I am sure there are people trying to tell the president this is not the best approach or maybe they've given up. But he doesn't care. He won in 2016 playing the game the way he wants to play it. He's trying do it again. He thinks by pressing the buttons that his base care about they will come out and vote and there will be enough of them to hold on to a slim majority in the House.</s>CABRERA: Lynn, I want to turn to the president's attacks against the media. The president met one-on-one with the head of "The New York Times," we've learned, A.J. Sulzberger. "New York Times" is revealing disturbing details about that meeting. The paper writing, quote, "Mr. Sulzberger recalls telling Mr. Trump at one point that newspapers have begun posting armed guards outside their offices because of a rise in threats against journalists. The president," he says, "expressed surprise that they did not already have armed guards." At another point Mr. Trump expressed pride in polarizing the phrase -- popularizing the phrase, I should say, "fake news," and said other countries had begun banning it. Mr. Sulzberger responded that those countries were dictatorships and that they were not banning fake news but rather independent scrutiny of their actions. Lynn, what is Trump's end game here? I mean, state-run media?</s>SWEET: Well, his end game is -- the multiple stories in this is that he still has a craving for the approval of the "New York Times." And that is evidence, even though that's the newspaper that -- one of the newspapers that's under attack because he gave time and -- you know, to the publisher. I don't know whether or not this very important message that was sent to the president today by the publisher of the "New York Times" will have any impact at all. Someone who is proud of popularizing the term "fake news" may not care what the publisher of the "New York Times" thinks about it. Sad to say, but what is important is that the news organizations keep doing its job, as CNN does, as the "Sun-Times" does and every one of our colleagues do, because the stories still have to be done and maybe at some point President Trump will understand the news and the job of the news in a different context. I don't think so. I think what's important is for us to make sure that the infection that the president is spreading when it comes to journalism and the free press in America is limited.</s>CABRERA: Tim, are you surprised to hear this from an American president?</s>NAFTALI: One of the things that keeps us together is a combined joint love of our Constitution. When Mr. Trump, President Trump, speaks this way, he is not speaking like someone who loves our Constitution. At the basis of our Constitution is the First Amendment. He is president of the United States. So an American president is saying this. It is unprecedented for an American president to say this publicly. Nixon sometimes said it privately. But the fact of the matter is it's up to Americans to decide if this is what they want to hear from their president and whether their love of the Constitution, which as I said binds us, requires or not an understanding and commitment to the First Amendment. I suspect Americans are committed to the First Amendment.</s>SWEET: And may I just add, Tim and Ana, very quickly, for a president to be -- it would be something if the president could be as committed to the First Amendment as he is to the Second.</s>CABRERA: Lynn Sweet, Timothy Naftali. We'll leave it there on that poignant moment. Thank you. Coming up, our special series about the Alaska wilderness and the Trump administration's controversial plans to drill and mine there.</s>BILL WEIR, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: In nearby Catmine National Park my team learned firsthand that this part of Alaska is nirvana for bears.