Trump Plans Three-State Campaign Blitz
KING: President Trump having a little fun poking at his critics on the road this week. Yesterday he was in Nevada. Earlier in the week he was in Minnesota. In Nevada he was campaigning for Dean Heller, the most vulnerable Republican senator incumbent on this midterm elections' midterm map. Let's go through it again. President first out of Minnesota -- that's unique because it's a blue state. He didn't win it. Nevada also a state the President just barely lost in 2016 competing for Dean Heller. He'll be South Carolina this week, also going to Wisconsin this week. Let's take a look at one of the interesting factors in this campaign. The President's controversial first midterm election -- among all Americans his approval rating in our polling just under 40 percent. Some other polls are well above 40 percent -- still historically low. Nationally the President has a problem. Midterm elections you tend to lose. But look at Republicans -- 81 percent approve, 15 percent disapprove. Among Republicans the President is still the gold standard. He helps gin out turn out. That is why the Nevada trip is so interesting. Again you go back and look in time, just barely but Hillary Clinton carried Nevada. Here is the plus for Dean Heller. He wants the President to gin up all these conservatives in the central part of the state. Here is the risk. Will the President being out there especially in the middle of this immigration fight instead gin up more Democrats -- Latino voters, other union voters, Democrats to turn out. That is the big risk. But if you're Dean Heller you are not going to run from your president. Democrats did that in 2010 and 2014 in the Obama years and they lost big time. So Dean Heller embraces the President and hopes, hopes attacks like this help.</s>TRUMP: A vote for Jackie is a vote for Nancy Pelosi. It's a vote for Schumer and it's a vote for all of the problems that they bring. And I don't think you want that. You have an outstanding man in Dean Heller. And I know and I have been on both sides of him. And I want to tell you, he's a tough cookie. He's a tough cookie and we want him on our side.</s>KING: We talked a bit about this. But as the President travels more it is interesting to look at the state by state calculations. No brainer -- he is going to be in South Carolina tomorrow. The Republican Governor Henry McMaster forced into a runoff. No brainer. Here in South Carolina you want the President on your side. The Nevada one is a lot more complicated because the state is actually a very contested state. Before we have the conversation -- that is the President yesterday, he talked about you can't be weak on immigration. Dean Heller's opponent also had a friend in town, Elizabeth Warren, who says on immigration the President is dead wrong.</s>SENATOR ELIZABETH WARREN (D), MASSACHUSETTS: President Trump and his Republican leadership have decided to inflict as much pain as they can on people coming to the United States. I want you just to look at the list. His administration has ripped children from the arms of their mamas. He has signed off on locking up small children in wire cages. He shrugged off the problem with reuniting thousands of children who have been taken away from their mothers and fathers.</s>KING: If you want a test of this issue in a highly competitive almost evenly-balanced state, there you have it.</s>TALEV: Oh yes. Nevada, Colorado, California, Pennsylvania -- maybe a couple of states in the Midwest doesn't take that many pick ups for Democrats to take over control of the House. Now, President Trump may be playing to keep the Senate. He may have already made the calculation that holding the Senate is more important than anything else for his own fortune but this is now what's going to play out in these swing districts and in states that are tossup states or that lean left.</s>RAJU: And you know, Trump has told Republican leaders he is willing to go everywhere. And the question is do they want him everywhere? They know that one thing that he does effectively is he drives up the negatives of a Democratic opponent. He's very good at that. But he also riles up the Democratic base. So it is going to be an interesting calculation come the fall as we get into the heat of the general election where middle of the road voters, people who maybe put off by some of the Trump rhetoric and policies and whether or not the President will be effective in a state like Arizona where there is another big senate race or Florida where he's got a big ally on the ballot in Rick Scott. But of course, Florida being the swing state that it is will Trump be effective there? So this is going to be a difficult interesting calculation for how the Republicans decide to use him come the fall.</s>MARTIN: And speaking of calculations, Trump did two campaign events this week on the road. And the tell was who was there and who wasn't there. So on Wednesday he is in Duluth, Minnesota -- a house district where he actually won convincingly that Obama had won four years earlier to the iron range. The House candidate the GOP has was there with Trump. The event was basically for him because this is one of the few House seats that the GOP thinks they can actually flip. Who wasn't there? Tim Pawlenty -- former two-term governor of the state, former candidate for president himself, wants to run for governor again this year; stays away from the event. Why -- this is a blue state, maybe a tad purple but basically a blue state. And Pawlenty knows in a general election Trump is a toxic political figure with voters in the Twin Cities. Flash over to Nevada yesterday, there is Las Vegas -- Dean Heller with President Trump; his calculation very different than Pawlenty. Also a purplish blue state -- his calculation though is look, I've got problems with my base politically. I've got to have my base unified. Trump can help me do that. And if I stiff him then I'm going to have a problem with my base politically. So I'm going to embrace Trump and sit here next to him. In doing so he is getting at his opponent but he is ensuring that his base is with him and it comes out.</s>KING: And again that's the lesson of 2010 and 2014. The Democrats who pushed away Obama still got pummeled.</s>MARTIN: Exactly right.</s>KING: They still got pummeled.</s>MARTIN: That's right.</s>KING: May as well stick with the boss. Does this matter? This is George Will writing in the "Washington Post" on Friday essentially taking after Republican congressman now standing up to President Trump on this