Catalonia To Vote For New Regional Leaders.
SESAY: Hello, everyone! Well, voters in Catalonia, Spain begin casting ballots in the coming hours to choose new leaders. Madrid's hope here is that Thursday's vote will reaffirm national unity by squeezing out Catalan politicians who back separatism.</s>VAUSE: Like the former Catalan President who was ousted and fled the country after an independence referendum in October. That triggered a political crisis in Spain. CNN's Isa Soares has details.</s>ISA SOARES, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Political rivals in Catalonia have been making a last-ditch effort to convince voters to back them in parliamentary elections. For those parties who have been in a bitter fight for an independent Catalonia, this is their chance to show Madrid, and, indeed, the rest of Europe theirs is not just a pipe dream. It's the case for the Republican left. Their leader and candidate, Oriol Junqueras, here only in spirit, is in jail on charges of rebellion,</s>MARTA ROVIRA, CATALONIA LAWYER AND POLITICIAN: On December 21st, we will go out there to win, to free the political prisoners. We will say no to the repression of the state and Article 155. We will say yes to the Republic, and we will say yes to a more fair, dignified, and free country.</s>SOARES: Ousted President Carles Puigdemont, he was in self-imposed exile in Belgium, is hoping his party can finally bring victory.</s>CARLES PUIGDEMONT, FORMER PRESIDENT OF CATALONIA: We will not give up. We will not let the ideological confrontation generated by Article 155, make us give up on the country that we are, a free country.</s>SOARES: But the battle won't be an easy one. According to the latest polls, this will be a tight and highly-contested race. In this battle, the parties who oppose independence haven't been holding back. Ines Arrimadas, seen as a champion for Spanish unity, has been warning about the risks of an independent Catalonia.</s>INES ARRIMADAS, MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT (through translator): Everything is at stake because we are risking our passports, we're risking our children's future, we're risking Catalonia's prosperity. A handful of votes can make a difference.</s>SOARES: Catalonia remains under direct control by Madrid, at least until a government is formed. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy is hoping what he calls the silent majority, those who didn't turn out for the referendum the first time around will feel compelled to vote, especially if the Spanish economy is at stake.</s>MARIANO RAJOY, PRIME MINISTER OF SPAIN (through translator): Tourist numbers are down, sales are down, companies are growing less, other companies are leaving. We have had to lower the growth forecast for the coming year to 2.3 percent. But if the situation is normalized, we can return in 2018 to the growth of more than three percent by 2017, creating like in 2017 more than half a million jobs.</s>SOARES: But with no standout winner right now, a coalition government may be likely and that could mean another potentially protracted political mess. Isa Soares, CNN.</s>SESAY: Well, joining us now from Austin, Texas to discuss the future of Catalan independence, European Affairs Commentator, Dominic Thomas. Dominic, my friend, good to see you. So, do you foresee a clear winner emerging from this regional election?</s>DOMINIC THOMAS, CNN EUROPEAN AFFAIRS COMMENTATOR: Well, the whole question of even deciding what a winner would be -- I mean, it's an extraordinary situation as the leadup story pointed out. Where you have two of the candidates, one sitting in prison and the other in exile. And of course, this is not an election over, it's not a regional election, and not a referendum, although, of course, the outcome of this will provide a very strong indication as to where folks in Catalonia stand on the question of independence. As the polls point to right now, it's extraordinarily divided. And on all sides of the political spectrum, you don't have the same kinds of alliances as you had back in 2015. And there's a sort of negative view of the way in which Puigdemont basically fled the country, and went into exile. And his former Vice President, of course, is the guy sitting in prison representing the ERC. So, it's also hard to see that if the independence parties do well, how they will be able to come together and form some kind of coalition with independence in sight.</s>SESAY: Yes, absolutely. I mean, when we look at it and we look at how fragmented the political landscape has become after that referendum -- I mean, it really does point to the fact that turnout is going to be key for this vote.</s>THOMAS: Right. And what all the sort of research points to right now is there are an awful lot of undecided voters and a lot of voters who are really divided over the question of economic prosperity and so on, that sort of goes against their perhaps deeper feelings and in support of independence. This is an extended, protracted problem that has deeply divided people within Catalonia, and also deeply divided the country in terms of the relationship of the region to Spain in a more general manner. And it's very hard to foresee how this particular election, which is a repetition of the one that was held in 2015, is going to bring any kind of closure. Rajoy, in many ways, is going to be seen to have shaped this election in a way to try and get a desirable outcome. But that does not mean that the question of independence and the valid grievances that folks in the region have which drive this move toward independence is going to go away overnight, just because of this outcome of a regional election.</s>SESAY: And to be clear, regardless of whether it's the pro- independence or, you know, those who favor pro-unity that emerge the victors and form a coalition, is the Madrid government ready to actually get to grips with the fundamental issues that continue to roil the relationship with Catalonia?</s>THOMAS: Right. Well, I think that the -- obviously, if the outcome produces a coalition government that is not an independent secessionist government that changes the conversation. That puts them in a dynamic where Rajoy can, from Madrid, help guide them along. If that doesn't happen or if it is extraordinarily divided as the polls are indicating at the moment, it's going to be absolutely essential for Rajoy to demonstrate a different kind of leadership than in the leadup to this particular situation. And they're going to have to engage in meaningful dialogue or this situation is really going to negatively impact the region and the broader potential political landscape in Spain. And this is where Rajoy has a deep responsibility now to start to think about -- and of course, it's left all kinds of negative sentiments in the region because of what is perceived as the overreaching aspect of the Madrid government.</s>SESAY: Yes. It's going to be a very important vote, and we'll just see how many people turn out. As you talk about, you know, negative impacts of landmark decisions, let's talk Brexit, shall we? The European Commission, Dominic, says it would welcome a transitional period to help Britain ease out of the E.U. but only through the end of 2020, and that leaves about a year and 3/4 after the final Brexit deadline which right now is March 2019. But an amendment to Britain's E.U. withdrawal bill would allow that bill to be changed which would most likely mean even later. So, Dom, even though British Prime Minister Theresa May says that you know, that's more of an emergency plan than anything else I want you to take a listen to her view of the situation.</s>THOMAS: Right.</s>THERESA MAY, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: We'll be leaving the E.U. on 29th of March, 2019, at 11:00 p.m. The bill that's going through, though, does not determine that the U.K. needs these -- that's part of the Article 50 process, and it's a matter of international law. And it's important I think that we have the same position legally as the European Union, and that's why we've accepted the amendment. We would only use this power in exceptional circumstances for the shortest possible time, and an affirmative motion would be brought to the House.</s>SESAY: All right. Dominick, this deadline that the E.U. has set for the end of the transition period, what does it tell us about where the E.U. stands on these talks, and, you know, what's about to happen in this next round?</s>THOMAS: Well, what it tells us, first of all, is that we need to not only mark our calendars for the 29th of March 2019 but to be very clear, it's 11:00 p.m., Isha, OK. Not 11:15 or quarter of --</s>SESAY: Obviously.</s>THOMAS: Right. So, that's important. And that's also important to point out that in addition to that, of course, the second amendment is, which is that the parliament now in what can be seen as a kind of second rebellion in just a one-week period, that's specifically said they would like the opportunity to be able to change that date and if it doesn't look like things are going very well. So, that was another sort of knockback to particular policies. But the European Union has been very clear on this. First of all, 2020 is the cutoff. So, let's not go too far down the road thinking that it's going to be possible to extend this transition. And of course, the hardcore Brexiteers in her cabinet, which are really obviously making the situation very difficult. Certainly, don't want to see it go much beyond 2019, because they, of course, are concerned that if we get into another election cycle, or if this government collapses there's a possibility this might not just go ahead in the way that they are expecting this to happen. And of course, the paradox of all of this is the longer this goes on beyond the 2019 date, the more the U.K. has to conform to European Union laws, rules, and regulations beyond that period. But also accept rules and regulations that have been passed since then in which they will have absolutely no input. So, the whole very question of sovereignty comes up again.</s>SESAY: Yes, absolutely. And with the backdrop of two rebellions, two parliamentary rebellions in a matter of days, where does this leave Theresa May as she heads into this next round of talks? Is she going into them from a position of strength or deeply wounded, deeply weakened?</s>THOMAS: Well, I think that first of all the only position of strength she has really right now is that there's absolutely probably nobody on the planet that wants her job. So, for the time being, that's what's keeping them together. What's further weakened her, of course, is this other scandal, which on top of the defense minister being embroiled, Michael Fallon, in sexual harassment problems, and Priti Patel who, of course, left not long ago because of her sort of, you know, extra-office activities that she was involved with Israel, is of course, that her deputy leader today, Damian Green, has had to step down because he also got himself embroiled in all sorts of problems and with pornography on his computer and with sexual allegations. And that's a real blow to her because this was a strong ally for her in the cabinet. And she now, I think, as we enter the beginning of 2018 is going to have to think very seriously about a cabinet reshuffle so that her position is not further weakened because of these recent departures.</s>SESAY: Goodness gracious me, it's one problem after another for Theresa May. Dominic Thomas, we always appreciate the insight, though, you're always steady. Thank you.</s>THOMAS: Thank you.</s>VAUSE: Thank you. OK. I know how Theresa May feels. OK. Ahead of an emergency session of the U.N. General Assembly on Jerusalem, a warning from the U.S., be careful who you vote for. Billions of dollars in foreign aid could be at stake.