Businesses are Reopening but Are They Safe?; Learning from the 1918 Pandemic; Georgia NBA Player Worried.
HOLMES: Welcome back. As the coronavirus death toll in the United States tops 51,000, many places are looking to open back up for business. Some states already have, despite health experts warning opening too soon could take on a second wave of infections, possibly worse than the first.</s>HOLMES: But is it really safe to reopen? CNN's Brian Todd reports.</s>SHANNON STAFFORD, HAIR SALON OWNER: No mask, no entry.</s>BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Shannon Stafford wrestled with the decision to reopen her hair salon in Savannah, Georgia. She says she will take the temperature of clients as they enter, make sure they wear face masks. But as for social distancing --</s>STAFFORD: That is not going to be possible, not with the client and a stylist. You can try to distance between the next two people throughout the salon but it's going to be difficult because we are so hands on.</s>TODD (voice-over): Keira Johnson owns a restaurant in Valdosta, Georgia, named Steel Magnolias, despite the declaration from Georgia's governor that restaurants can reopen with social distancing measures in place. Johnson refuses to open.</s>KEIRA JOHNSON, RESTAURANT OWNER: I have a 19 month old son, one of my managers has three little girls. Most of my chefs have children and we all have to know what we're going home to at the end of the night is safe. That we are keeping it safe for them at this point.</s>TODD (voice-over): Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to allow hair and nail salons, gyms, restaurants and theaters to reopen is drawing enormous criticism from President Trump to mayors and other officials in the state to public health experts who have an ominous warning tonight.</s>DR. MARK RUPP, INFECTION CONTROL CHIEF, UNIVERSITY OF NEBRASKA MEDICAL CENTER: So I think undoubtedly there will be additional infections as we try to open up businesses. So this virus has not miraculously just gone away, it's still there. It's still looking for ways to exploit frailties (ph).</s>TODD (voice-over): Next week, Tennessee Governor Bill Lee is allowing restaurants and retailers to open at 50 percent capacity. One expert says that may not go far enough and explains how coronavirus can spread in a restaurant setting.</s>GAVIN MACGREGOR-SKINNER, DIRECTOR TRAINING, GLOBAL BIORISK ADVISORY COUNCIL: This virus spreads through droplets as well as direct contact. So anyone who's touched anything I know, fork, spoon, plate, cup, glass, we have to treat it as hot with real virus (ph).</s>TODD: In one study, person A1 here marked in yellow had lunch in a restaurant in China on January 24 and then soon felt sick. Nine others marked in red seated nearby were diagnosed within the following 12 days. In gyms now reopening in parts of Georgia, experts say the risks could be even higher, even for people in pre-symptomatic stages. If they're working out too close to others.</s>RUPP: If one of those persons goes to a gym and works out vigorously and is breathing hard, exerting themselves, that seems to me to be kind of a recipe for spreading that virus in that pre-symptomatic stage.</s>TODD: So is it impossible for any salons, stores and restaurants reopening to operate safely right now? One expert says, not impossible, but those businesses have to quickly train their employees.</s>MACGREGOR-SKINNER: The business employees are going to require the training but also the necessary equipment to protect their eyes, nose and mouth. It could be glasses, it could be another face covering, it could be just better use of disinfectant or hand sanitizer or soap and water. But we can do it, but it's going to be done slowly.</s>TODD: Despite the encouragement of some governors to reopen, many businesses and states that are doing that have told CNN that they are not going to reopen right away. For some, they say the cost of reopening, with all of the safety measures they have to take, are too burdensome. But for many, the overall risks are just too great. One theater owner told "The New York Times," "Hell, no," when he was asked if he would reopen. He said, if he did that and another outbreak is traced to his theater, quote, "You know what that would do to my business? "I wouldn't have one." -- Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.</s>HOLMES: Well, if there does end up being a second wave of coronavirus infections, it would not be the first time this has happened during a pandemic. The Spanish flu, for example, which didn't really start in Spain, began in 1918. But then it had two more waves, stronger and deadlier than the first.</s>HOLMES: Joining me now, Dr. Howard Markel, he's a physician and professor at the University of Michigan, a good man to have for this. When we look back at the 1918 and compare it to what's unfolding today, it struck me, you were quoted as saying, as a historical epidemiologist, I really do not want to see my research play out before my eyes. Explain that in the context of then and now.</s>DR. HOWARD MARKEL, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: Several years ago, we were asked to look at the 1918 pandemic to look at what is now referred to as social distancing, quarantine and isolation, school closures, public gathering bans, and see what worked and what didn't work in American cities during that great pandemic. We found that cities that acted early, that did more than one of them and did them for very long times had far lower cases and deaths than those that did not. So we had always planned or part of the planning for the nation's pandemic preparedness.</s>MARKEL: And this was only to be rolled out in a worst-case scenario. So what I meant by that quote was that while we had been working on this dystopian vision for so long, no physician would want to COVID-19 crisis on his or her hands and I doubt that anyone else would either.</s>HOLMES: There were lessons and you touched on this, how different cities acted. I think Philadelphia and St. Louis were examples in the very different outcomes they had from their behavior.</s>MARKEL: To begin, Philadelphia was on the East Coast, they got struck very hard, very early but they did not do much at all and when they finally did anything, it was too late. The virus had hit its inflection point, there were so many people with influenza, they were all infecting other people with influenza. In places like St. Louis and other American cities, Grand Rapids, Michigan, was another one, they acted very early, a few weeks before the crisis got out of hand. They also used more than one of the social distancing measures and did them for a long period of time. But there was more to it than that. There was context, in that the leaders of those cities got along with the other leaders in the same city. So the health commissioner worked well with the board of education or with the governor or with the mayor. And we found that then, as now, when there is internecine rivalries between different politicians at different levels, that is a prescription for bad stuff.</s>HOLMES: And that was my very next question. You've spoken about that battle in many ways between economics and public health. We are seeing that play out today. Given what happened in 1918, do you fear a rush to normal right now? Particularly where you got the push from the White House and that seems political and pretty strong?</s>MARKEL: Yes, and in places like Georgia as well; 23 of the 43 cities that we have studied released the brake too early. They had what we called a double hump curve. So it was an epicurve that went up, then went down when they put on the brakes and then when they released the brakes, the cases went back up, they put the brakes back on and it went down again. But that 2nd hump was sometimes worse in number of cases and deaths than the first. Of course, it sort of put all of that work in and disruption for nothing. You still had to do it all over again and for almost a longer period at that.</s>HOLMES: Fears that could happen this time around. We have, of course, the advantages now of better science, better systems of communication. That was not the case back then. How did having control of the epidemic and these days communication itself is hampered by easily disseminated conspiracy theories and misinformation.</s>MARKEL: Yes. Communication today is absolutely wonderful in that the science and scientists and epidemiologists from all around the world can communicate at the push of a button. That is a wonderful thing. But information can be disseminated to citizens about what they should do to prevent getting the COVID-19 virus. But you are also right, there is bad information and, with social media and the Internet, misinformation can go around the world at the speed of electrons and that is very difficult to rein in as well.</s>HOLMES: We are right out of time but is there one lesson from 1918 that should be applied today that is not or one lesson learned?</s>MARKEL: One lesson learned is that through every epidemic I've ever studied, the last act is always one of global amnesia. We forget about the crisis at hand once it's over. We go back to living the lives that may have led to that epidemic or pandemic in the first place. The 2nd COVID-19 is managed, we are going to have to plan for the next one. We live in a world of emerging infectious diseases and we never conquer microbes. We, at best, wrestled them to a draw.</s>HOLMES: So well put. Dr. Howard Markel, a pleasure. Thank you so much.</s>MARKEL: Thank you.</s>HOLMES: Global amnesia. The decision by Georgia's governor to reopen the state is causing concern across the U.S. pro basketball player in Georgia native Jaylen Brown says that he fears for the safety of his family and friends living there. The Boston Celtics shooting guard spoke with Christina Macfarlane about it.</s>CHRISTINA MACFARLANE, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): He was supposed to be focusing on the NBA playoffs, instead, Jaylen Brown of the Boston Celtics has been concentrating on another goal, keeping people safe. Now his messages have urgently turned to the people in his home state of Georgia as Governor Kemp gradually reopens for business.</s>JAYLEN BROWN, BOSTON CELTICS: As a Georgia native I feel uneasy but I have family and friends there that will be the first to go back out into society. And I do not want to see Georgia be like the guinea pig for what the economy is trying to do and start back up. I think all the people that I have listened to, who have some type of claim in science and DNA and understanding this virus, say this is almost ridiculous. I take it personal that is something that we're going to do because it bothers me and I'm concerned for my friends and my family.</s>TRUMP: Maybe you wait a little bit longer until you get into a phase 2. So do I agree with him? No, but I respect him and I will let him make his decision.</s>DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ALLERGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: Going ahead and leapfrogging into phases where you should not be, I would advise him, as a health official and a physician, not to do that.</s>MACFARLANE (voice-over): After listening to White House briefings on the coronavirus, Brown says he hopes the president and local officials would get on the same page.</s>BROWN: The government or state officials said they will release more information and I think they should be more adamant about talking and putting the right information out there instead of complaining about the wrong information. When I watch, some of these government officials, they just cause more anxiety and more panic, because I do not feel like people are on the same page. I think that we should be united in our stance</s>MACFARLANE (voice-over): With the devastating toll this is having on minority and ethnic communities, Brown says the NBA is in a unique position to make a difference.</s>BROWN: I think the NBA is 75-80 percent African American and people of color, so I think that our communities, our families, our neighborhoods are being affected by that. And that is the importance of us as players, of the NBA to teams to stand in that, stand up and not to pretend but to actually try to go out and make change and do something. Americans are having a lack of medical resources right now and I think people of color are suffering the most.</s>MACFARLANE (voice-over): It is uncertain when Brown will be back on the basketball court. But right now, he has focused on playing his part in the global effort to save lives -- Christina Macfarlane, CNN, London</s>HOLMES: A follow-up for you now, 99 year old British war veteran captain Tom Moore, you may remember, raised more than $35 million for the National Health Service in the U.K. by walking laps in his garden. Now he is the oldest person to top the U.K.'s music charts.</s>HOLMES (voice-over): Moore's rendition, with a few guest singers of "You'll Never Walk Alone" debuted at number one just days before his 100th birthday, check it out, it is all over YouTube and it is something. Thank you for spending part of your day with me and watching CNN NEWSROOM, "MARKETPLACE AFRICA" up next, I will see you in about 20 minutes.