Wall Street Eyes Economic Reports on Manufacturing, Construction
DEBORAH MARCHINI, CNN ANCHOR: We've got every day this week another important economic report. Of course today, we've got an upward move in the price of oil. The spotlight, though, a little later on is going to be on manufacturing.</s>DAVID HAFFENREFFER, CNN ANCHOR: Christine Romans joins us this Wednesday morning with more on this front. Good morning.</s>CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi there. Well, 10:00 this morning Eastern time is when we're going to get the National Association of Purchasing Management report. It's called N-A-P-M, or NAPM for short; for some people in the markets, that's what they like to call it. Anyway, they're looking for that number to increase just a little bit, maybe, from the last one that we saw. They're saying that manufacturing looks pretty good; that's what economists think overall, looking for -- 56.3 roughly is what we saw last time, and they're looking for maybe even a little bit up-tick from that. Anyway, so that's what we're looking for in terms of that number, and maybe a little bit of strength there. But what people are really zeroing in on is the prices-paid component; they're expecting that to reflect the recent increase in oil prices. And they're actually looking for that to be something like a five-year high. So a strong prices-paid component of this number. And of course the inflation-wary bond market always keeps it's eye on any kind of inflation components, and that's what we're going to get in this report. But that said, a lot of economists are saying we're probably going to be able to talk ourselves out of any big concerns about the prices-paid component because we do know that oil prices have been rising. Still, overall, fairly high for the overall number, consistent with continued strength in manufacturing. The prices-paid number could probably rise again, led by oil, up sharply, but not even close in the prices-paid component to that 87.1 that we saw back in '94. So, still, they're telling me anywhere from 77, 78, 79, 80 are the readings that we could see on that prices-paid component; that compares with 72.6 in January. So it is, you know, a significant little up move for the prices-paid component, and that could be something that sort of takes the markets, maybe not by surprise, but certainly grabs their attention. Also, at 10:00, there's a construction-spending number. This is a number for the previous month. It's sort of a lagging number. A lot of people say it's ancient history. But I'm hearing that there are some folks out there who think it might be pretty strong given a recent surge in construction employment. So we could see a strong number there. And for a market that is looking for any signs of a slowdown, that could be a little bit worrisome.</s>HAFFENREFFER: If the prices number does come in stronger than expected, it's simply going to lead people to believe that, yes, interest rate hikes are pretty much going to be coming down the pipeline anyway, which is already the expectation. So is this already factored into the market?</s>ROMANS: Well, that's the question. And whenever you talk about expectations for numbers, it depends how far outside of expectations these numbers are. So, lots of folks are looking for that number to be at a five-year high. If it's significantly above a five-year high, I think it's going to be harder for the markets to talk themselves out of it.</s>MARCHINI: Christine, thanks.</s>HAFFENREFFER: We'll hold our breath.