President Obama Leading in Presidential Polls
KING: This half-hour: A new judge could take over the Trayvon Martin case, what it means for the neighborhood watchman now accused of murder. New CNN polls just out tonight show Mitt Romney's biggest weaknesses and his greatest strength. We're breaking down the numbers showing where the president might be vulnerable. Plus, the shuttle Discovery mounted on a jumbo jet ready for one last night -- no, not heading to space this time. The lawyer for the neighborhood watchman who admits to shooting Trayvon Martin wants a new trial judge. Just this afternoon, George Zimmerman's attorney filed papers to get the current judge, Jessica Recksiedler, removed from the case over a possible conflict of interests. It's because her husband's law partner is Mark NeJame, a CNN analyst who himself was approached by Zimmerman to possibly take on the job of defending him. A new judge could have a huge impact on how the second-degree murder case plays out in the courtroom. Let's talk it over with our legal analyst, Sunny Hostin, live in New York. Sunny, why is this a big deal?</s>SUNNY HOSTIN, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Well, it's a big deal, because any time you have a judge that's asked to be recused, and you get a new judge, it sort of changes the color of the case. I think we saw that in the Casey Anthony case. It's really about the judge when it comes down to how a case is tried, the track of the case, the timeliness of the case. Everything comes from the top down. So this is actually very, very important. I suspect, John, I suspect that we will see a new judge in this case. If there is a conviction in a high-profile case like this, there's just no question that there will be an appeal. And you don't want sort of this appearance of impropriety in terms of a conflict of interest for the judge. So I suspect that one would want to just avoid that altogether.</s>KING: And so let's take a look at the three most likely options from that area: Judge John Galluzo, the Honorable Kenneth Lester, the honorable Debra Steinberg Nelson. Anything different, anything -- differences among these options that could make a difference?</s>HOSTIN: Well, they certainly are different from the judge that has been assigned the case. She's a very new judge. She's only been on the bench for a little over a year. These judges are seasoned judges. Judge Galluzo was appointed by Governor Jeb Bush in 2006, about a year after the "stand your ground" law was enacted. Judge Kenneth Lester, 1996. Judge Debra Steinberg Nelson, 1999. Also appointed by Governor Jeb Bush. Why that is important, John, is because we know Mark O'Mara, the defense attorney, has been an attorney for quite some time and may have appeared in front of these judges. So any attorney in any case, but especially a serious high-profile case like this, will want to appear in front of a judge he or she has appeared in front of and has some sort of rapport. So I suspect that also went into the asking for this judge to recuse herself. She's sort of an unknown factor. These judges are more known factors, at least to this defense team.</s>KING: This impacted all the planned bond hearing on Friday?</s>HOSTIN: I think it's very possible. I mean, let's face it. The bond hearing is set for this Friday. And if there's going to be a new judge, that new judge needs to get up to speed on this case. And so I suspect, if there is a new judge, we may not see that bond hearing happen on Friday.</s>KING: Sunny Hostin on top of this case. As always, Sunny, thanks. We'll keep in touch.</s>HOSTIN: Thanks.</s>KING: Let's shift to politics now. A new CNN polling out tonight has lots of bad news for Mitt Romney. Not only is he trailing President Obama 52 to 43 percent nationally, but a closer look shows Romney has an especially tough challenge in winning over women voters. He trails the president 49 to 46 percent among men. But here's the big trouble: among women, the president leads 55 percent to 39 percent. You can do the math. That's a 16-point gender gap. Our chief political analyst, Gloria Borger, has been digging into the numbers. There's always a Democrat. I can't even speak. There's always a gender gap with the Democrats, but one that big, you can't win.</s>GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: No, you can't win, which is why we're seeing the Romney campaign put out Ann Romney so much lately. Why they are going to start appealing to women on the issue of the economy because women, of course, vote on the economy. They take care of their parents. They're involved in the issue of health-care reform, for example. They take care of their children. So those are going to be issues you're going to be hearing over and over again. Not going to be so much the cultural issues but the economic issues.</s>KING: If you look beneath that, if you look at the other news, a clear plan for solving the country's problems: Obama 38, Romney 33. Among independents, 33/31. Those are slightly better for Romney.</s>BORGER: Well...</s>KING: It's competitive numbers especially after a bruising primary process where the other guy doesn't have an opponent. That's not bad.</s>BORGER: Those are the closest numbers you get for Mitt Romney. So what it shows you there, and it's not rocket science, it shows you that the president's vulnerability is, of course, the economy. If things go well, six months from now, well, you can expect those numbers to be further apart, and Barack Obama will be doing a lot better. But if things start going south, then you'll see independent voters, probably move over to Mitt Romney. So that is their key opportunity: the economy. Again, not a surprise here.</s>KING: And the most -- the most striking thing, if you look at it, is Romney is competitive when you ask the policy questions. It's on the empathy, the humanity questions where you see the gap. Look at these. More likable, Obama 56, Romney 27. More in touch with women, Obama 55, Romney 27. More in touch with the middle class, Obama 51, Romney 33. Strong leader, 50 to 34. Stands up for what he believes in, 50 to 29.</s>BORGER: Right.</s>KING: On the personal characteristics, understands me, call it humanity, call it empathy, Romney has to change those numbers.</s>BORGER: Right. And the likeability number is the number that I always, always look at. Here a 29-point difference. Likeability means that people will give President Obama the benefit of the doubt if he makes a mistake or they think he does something that they don't really like. That matters to people. The benefit of the doubt is important when you're running for the presidency. People want to like you. It's a personal vote they cast. Twenty-nine-point deficit there means that Mitt Romney has to start changing his appeal a little bit and open up to the American public. Let them know who he is.</s>KING: The time to do it, but that's a steep hill to climb.</s>BORGER: Very hard.</s>KING: Two hundred days. It's only April. It's not over yet. But advantage Obama in April. We'll see if the numbers shift as we go. You're shaking your head.</s>BORGER: Long time. Yes, it's a long time. Six months, whatever it is.</s>KING: Long time.</s>BORGER: It's a long time.</s>KING: George H.W. Bush can tell you he had really good numbers right now at this time back in 1992.</s>BORGER: That's right, that's right.</s>KING: We'll see how it goes. Gloria, thanks. The president may have a lead in the polls, but Mitt Romney says he's ready for the fight, challenging critics who say he can't relate to average Americans. Romney says he can fix the economy and pretty tough message for the president.</s>MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Start packing. That's what I'd like to say. Obviously, we have a very different view. The president, I'm sure, wants another four years, but the first years didn't go so well. And I'd say, Mr. President, focus on your policies and ask, did they make it more likely for businesses to start? Did your policies make it more likely for businesses to hire people?</s>KING: Will Romney's focus on his economic expertise be enough to help him overcome the president's big early lead? Joining me now, Ralph Reed, a veteran strategist and the founder of the Faith and Freedom Coalition. Let's get right to it. The poll numbers, the national horse race, pretty tough if you're Governor Romney. The gender gap, very tough if you're Governor Romney right now. I want to look at what I'll call his under 50 problem. Let me show you the numbers. If you make under $50,000 a year, Obama 56, Romney 36. Among those blue-collar, down-skill voters, advantage Obama. If you're under the age of 50, Obama 56, Romney 37. So younger voters -- a lot of 40-year-olds old there saying, "Thank you, John" -- the younger voters, big advantage. How do you -- you can turn numbers around. And it's only April. He's got a lot of numbers he has to turn around.</s>RALPH REED, FOUNDER, FAITH AND FREEDOM COALITION: Well, the dynamic of the race is going to change. I mean, at this point, in 1992, "TIME" magazine had Bill Clinton on its cover as a reverse negative. He was upside down. He was trailing the incumbent president, George Bush, by 15 points. At this point in 1980, Reagan was behind Jimmy Carter by seven points. So, you know, elections aren't held in April. The other thing you have to remember, John, is this was the most contentious, hard-fought, drawn-out nomination battle since 1976. So what the Romney campaign really needs is two things. No. 1, they need what Lee Atwater used to call defining moments in a campaign. Particularly those that are unscripted, that allow people to see the man that those of us who know Mitt Romney see behind the blue curtain. In Bill Clinton's case, it was playing the saxophone on "Arsenio Hall." In George W. Bush's case, it was going on "Oprah." Remember he famously kissed her on the cheek, and people saw a different side. He needs some spontaneity and to show his other side. The second thing that he needs to do is to be able to get this message back on the economy.</s>KING: You talked about that. You also talk about how you have to learn from the people you just beat.</s>REED: Right.</s>KING: It's not officially over yet. You write this essay. It's an interesting essay in yesterday's "Washington Post." "Santorum and his supporters may have the last laugh. In our time, losing presidential candidates have previewed the ideological trajectory of their parties and often of the nation. Romney would be wise to remember this in his general election campaign." Now, you made the Reagan example. Reagan lost and then came back and won. He was the future of the party even after losing. What does Romney have to do today and tomorrow to learn that lesson?</s>REED: Well, the two things that I talked about in the op-ed were, No. 1, Santorum was able to fuse the cultural and the economic messages by pointing out that you can't strengthen the economy without strengthening the family. He often cited a Brookings Institute study which found that, if you had a job, graduated from high school, and waited until you were married to have children, that you only had a 2 percent chance of being in poverty. If you did the opposite of those three things, you had about a 76 percent chance of being in poverty. Romney can make it clear that poverty and being left behind in our economy isn't just a fiscal or economic issue. It's a cultural and a moral issue. The second thing that he needs to do is he needs to flesh out his own biography. I talk about the fact that when the night of the Iowa caucuses, Santorum, I think in the best speech he gave the entire campaign, spoke movingly about his Italian immigrant grandfather. Well, the truth is, Romney's family came from nothing. You know, his grandfather was a carpenter, and his father started from nothing. He needs to flesh out that biography and reintroduce himself.</s>KING: I've known you for almost 20 years. And I've known you as an organizer, someone who identifies people, finds them, keeps in touch with them, and then grabs them by the ear and gets them to the polls. Obama, without a challenge, has had a year and a lot of money and resources. This is all they're doing. They are finding voters, registering voters, building their list. Are you convinced that Governor Romney and with help of outside organizations, can they catch up to that huge advantage that team Obama has right now in terms of doing the nuts and bolts of winning a general election?</s>REED: They can. Now, you know, first of all, you have to remember, this is Obama 2.0. This isn't the '08 version of hope and change and there's no blue states or red states. It's the United States. This is after Obama care, after a stimulus plan that didn't create the number of jobs that he said it would. He's as polarizing a figure as anybody we've had. So there's going to be some intensity. But for Romney to actually win -- and this was the other point I made in the essay, John -- people can't just be voting against Obama. They need to be voting for Romney and his running mate. So the running mate will be important. The convention acceptance speech will be important, and the general election messaging will be important.</s>KING: Ralph, we'll keep in touch. Appreciate your coming in. Six months to go, 200 days. Coming up, the search is officially on for Governor Romney's running mate. The truth about some potential No. 2s and maybe a wild card. We'll be right back.