New Model Now Projects 60,000 Deaths In U.S By August; White House Coordinator Says, Testing Kits Are Out There Idle.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: -- death toll ever, with 779 people dying in one day. That number, part of an overall death toll that continues to climb, nearly 1,300 people have now lost their lives to COVID-19. And there are currently more than 400,000 cases in the nation. In a significant shift, one prominent model cited often by the White House is projecting fewer overall deaths from the coronavirus. That's according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, which now estimates it will be roughly 60,000 U.S. deaths, down from 81,000 just a few days ago. All of that as a new CNN poll shows that a majority of Americans, 55 percent, say the federal government has done a poor job in stopping the virus' spread. Our Shimon Prokupecz and Elizabeth Cohen join me now. Shimon, Governor Cuomo is saying that deaths in New York are up, but how are the hospitals doing?</s>SHIMON PROKUPECZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So, the hospitals are still obviously very, very busy. There's a lot of sick people still in the hospitals, a lot of people on ventilators. These are people who have been in the hospital for quite some time now, and unfortunately not getting better. I spoke to an emergency room doctor this morning who said while they're not seeing the same number of people that are coming in to the hospital, they're still very busy. There's still a lot of patients at the hospital, a lot of patients on ventilators, a lot of patients who they're really trying to save their lives, some experimental treatments that they're trying. It's really busy inside New York City hospitals. Also, think about the number of dead, you know. That number continues to climb. And as the governor said, that's to be expected, given the fact that a lot of the people who are dying have been on ventilators for quite some time, have been some of the most critical ill in all of this. And also think about this, Anderson, we're now at the point where there have been nearly half the deaths in this country are in this state, and that number is expected to climb. You know, we keep hearing that this week is going to be bad. We could see another bad next week. And steadily, as these days go by, we are seeing that the number of dead is climbing. It's still really tough on the hospitals, the frontline nurses, the doctors who are still trying to save so many lives, dealing with the stress. The other thing I want to point out, I was talking to someone this morning who said the transfers, what the governor has been doing and moving some of the less critical ill, some of the people who have coronavirus, critical care, the ventilators, are moving them to facilities like the one behind me here at the Javits Center. That is helping the hospitals because they are now able to focus on more of the critical patients, which is what they've been asking for and which they really need right now, Anderson.</s>COOPER: Yes. And the governor talked about flattening the curve, which is certainly a positive trend, but that it's important that social distancing has to continue. He talked about doubling down on social distancing. Elizabeth, the new projection from the IHME, it's a departure from just a few days ago. I talked to Dr. Murray from the organization who puts these out. I think it was 81,000 just yesterday or two days ago. Can you just talk about -- we know that all these models change as new data comes forward and often changes daily. This is certainly a good trend that it's gone down. Can you explain why it has and how?</s>ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Right. Largely, it's because of social distancing. Well, hopefully, most people are doing what they're supposed to be doing, Anderson. And so, that means that the virus isn't spreading at quite the rate that we thought it might. So again, if you look at those numbers, they thought it was going to be 81,766 deaths by August 4th, and now they're saying 60,415. Two things to note on there. One is, that's just through the beginning of August. Many experts are talking about this going on, that there may be a second wave, and this doesn't account for that second wave. Also, I'm very, very cautious about saying anything positive about 60,000 dead Americans. Is this going perhaps in the right direction? It appears that it is, but still, this is very, very serious.</s>COOPER: Those numbers are also contingent on social distancing efforts being in place until at least the beginning of June, I believe. Is that correct?</s>COHEN: That's right. That's right, through May. That's a very good point, that these numbers, seeing these numbers go down, as we've just discussed, is if we all keep social distancing through the end of next month. So if things start to fall apart, these numbers won't be as good as we hope they are. And certainly, it will be interesting to see they may not have modeled this far out yet, but what happens if social distancing has to continue through June or even later? We still don't know how long we need to be doing this for.</s>COOPER: Yes. Elizabeth Cohen, Shimon Prokupecz, thanks very much. I want to dig deeper on the new projection that U.S. deaths from COVID-19 could be significantly lower than previously thought. Again, these are models. Dr. Carlos del Rio is Executive Associate Dean with the Emory School of Medicine. He is also Global Health and Epidemiology Professor. Thanks so much for being with us, Doctor. Is what you're seeing around the country and the new data in line with these new projections?</s>DR. CARLOS DEL RIO, EXECUTIVE ASSOCIATE DEAN, EMORY UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF MEDICINE: Yes, I think so. I think we're beginning to see, you know, what's happening across the country because different places have established different times when they went into lockdowns or into stay-at-homes or into shelter in place, we're seeing different models at different places. We almost -- I tell people that in the U.S., we almost have multiple Wuhans, right, multiple outbreaks happening at different times, not one coordinated, national outbreak. And as a result of that, it makes it incredibly challenging to model because you really need to model at the local level.</s>COOPER: That's the thing. I mean, you have, you know, rising death toll in New York, even with these projections, you know, which are -- I mean, again, as Elizabeth said, 60,000 dead is horrific. But you still -- you have areas that, while New York may be coming to the apex now and there's been this kind of leveling off, other cities are expecting to reach the apex several weeks from now or days.</s>DEL RIO: That is correct. That is correct. And, Anderson, what I remind people is, people say, well, we'll get to the apex and we're done. No, I remind people we're getting to the apex a little bit like going off Everest. Once you get to the apex, you still need to come down, right? So there's still a lot of deaths that are going to happen as you're coming down. And the apex simply means the peak of the infections, but it doesn't mean the peak of the deaths or overall number of deaths because that may happen later after the infections occur. So we are going to continue seeing deaths. But again, the more we implement social distancing, the more we can try to decrease transmission, the lower the impact and the more we're doing this flattening of the curve. And really, flattening of the curve is a key component, because if we have people sick but we don't overwhelm the healthcare system, then mortality is much, much better. Part of the high mortality in places like Italy is in part related -- I mean, yes, they have an older population impacted, but quite frankly, it's also because the health system was overwhelmed. I've talked to colleagues in Spain, in Italy, and the overwhelming of the healthcare system makes the outcomes not be as good. So if we're able to flatten the curve, our outcomes will be so much better than if we get overwhelmed.</s>COOPER: In terms of testing, which, you know, maybe people think, well, the time, you know, testing is not as important as it once was -- that's really not the case. And from my understanding, and correct me if I'm wrong and maybe you could illuminate this little bit, in order for all of us to come out of this, or at least be able to return to some sort of, you know, work, greater work volume, go back to offices, go back to schools, there needs to be far more accessible and extensive testing and ongoing testing. Is that right? The governor of New York has described it as kind of as a bridge.</s>DEL RIO: It's absolutely necessary. It's almost, actually, more than a bridge. Testing is the key that opens the door to get us out of where we are right now. And the example I put, and the reason I say this, Korea has done a tremendous job of testing. South Korea has done a tremendous job. South Korea is testing at a rate of about 8,000 tests per million population. We're currently in the U.S. close to about 4,000 tests per million population. So we still have to double the amount of testing we do. And we need several things. We need to increase the amount of testing we're doing, but we also need to very, very rapidly get the test results to people. Because the key here is you get tested, you find your result and then immediately get isolated and you don't infect others. The problem we're having is somebody gets infected, they don't know about it, it takes five or six days to find the result, and then during that time, they're in their household and they're infecting other people in the household. And we know from colleagues in China and in Italy that household transmission is incredibly efficient. And it's a way that even with the lockdown, the epidemic will continue. So finding people early, isolating them and preventing household transmission is a key to getting us at to where we are right now.</s>COOPER: And it's not just testing to see if somebody's positive or not. It's also testing to see if somebody had the virus and, therefore, has developed antibodies to it.</s>DEL RIO: And correct, Anderson. That's the other test that we need to even start scaling up, which is the antibody test, the serological test. Many places are beginning to work on serological tests. But at this point in time in the U.S., we only have one serological test to prove, we have many others testing for the virus, but serological is we only have one. So it's going to take us a while to scale up serological testing. But I think once we scale up serological testing, it would also allow to know who has already had this disease. And I will tell you, there're a lot of people who had very minimal symptoms who probably had the disease who weren't incredibly sick. I know somebody in their 30s who just had one day of fever and they're positive. So, the disease could be extremely, exceedingly mild, and serological testing is going to help us identify who those people are and truly give us an idea of what the extent of the disease in the population happens to be, and knowing that it's going to be critical to get us out of where we are right now.</s>COOPER: What does opening up look like to you? President Trump said last night he'd like to open the country with a big bang. That's certainly kind of aspirational. You can understand, you know, a lot of folks would like to see, you know, roaring back of the economy, certainly. But is it something that happens right away or is it something that's sort of gradual and ramps up?</s>DEL RIO: I think it's -- this is not like turning the light switch on. This is going to be very slow and is going to be very local. I mean, I think one of the most difficult places to open up, quite frankly, is going to be New York City, because, you know, it's very hard to socially distance with public transportation and with the amount of people that live in New York. But, again, once we know serological testing, you will be able to do many things. I would envision something like this happening. We'll know serological testing. So at some point in time, let's imagine at the university. You can say, well, the people that already have it can come to class, but the people who haven't had it maybe need to come to class, but wearing a mask and they need to practice social distancing. And maybe professors over the age of 65 or people that have underlying conditions, if they already had it, fine, but if they haven't had it, maybe they need to continue teaching through Zoom and other long- distance, online methods, as opposed to coming and teaching in person. So, I think it's going to be a series of different steps, and I don't think it's going to be one solution. There's going to be a multiple set of solutions, very well thought of that allow us to be where we need to be. But, again, I remind people, it took China 67 days to open Hubei. That just gives us an idea of how long it's going to take us to begin to start opening the country.</s>COOPER: And we're almost out of time, but I just want to get this, because I think it's really important. Are we set up -- is our public health system set up to do this level of testing, state by state, you know, all the different kinds of testing, in order -- or is that something that needs to somehow be formed? And I assume contact tracing is going to be an important part of that, which I'm sensing is not being done at the height of this to the extent that ideally epidemiologists would want.</s>DEL RIO: Contact tracing is going to be critically important. And, no, Anderson, at this point in time, I think we're not set up. Very few, if any, health departments are ready to do this. But, again, we're a country of smart people. We have resources. And we just need to decide, this is what we're going to do and we're going to get it done. So it's a matter of putting the money in the right place and getting the people and letting them start doing it, and I'll bet you they can do it.</s>COOPER: Dr. Carlos del Rio, hopeful. Thank you. I appreciate it. Coming up, a new report shows the Trump administration was warned about the virus long before it hit the U.S. Did they just miss it or ignore the early red flags? Plus, President Trump blames a new target for mishandling of the coronavirus. We're live at the White House with details.