"High Probability" Chemical Weapons Used
ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR: OUTFRONT, next on the 10th anniversary of the U.S. invasion, 55 people killed in Iraq today. Why is al Qaeda rising? Plus, police find a bag of explosives found next to the body in a college dorm room and we have the video the cops found as they went in. And CVS demands employees to submit to health tests. If not, you pay a lot of money. Is your employer next and is this fair? Let's go OUTFRONT. Good evening, everyone. I'm Erin Burnett. And we begin with breaking news tonight, first heard here on CNN, the chairman of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees telling our Wolf Blitzer just a short while ago there's a -- I want to quote their words, "high probability that chemical weapons have been used in Syria."</s>REP. MIKE ROGERS (R), CHAIRMAN OF INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE: I have a high probability to believe that chemical weapons were used. We need that final verification, but given everything we know over the last year and a half, I, Mike Rogers, chairman of the Intelligence Committee, would come to the conclusion they're positioned for use and ready to do that or, in fact, have been used.</s>BURNETT: Or, in fact, have been used. The head of the Senate Intelligence Committee Dianne Feinstein echoed that warning with a stark message to the president and I will quote her. She said, "I think the probabilities are very high that we are going into some very dark times and I think the White House needs to be prepared." Both committees now have been fully briefed. All right, I want to bring our guests tonight and talk about what this means. Seth Jones joins us now along with General Wesley Clark. Thanks very much for both of you. You both know a lot about this issue. General, let me start with you. This is something the president has set as a red line, I'll play what he said in a moment, but he has said if chemical weapons are used, that's a red line. What does the U.S. do if they have been? GENERAL WESLEY CLARK</s>FORMER NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: Well, first of all, both secretary of state and the president have looked very closely at this issue of what assistance can be given to the Syrian resistance, the rebels there. And the Syrian rebels are getting increasingly well organized. They're right now just representatives. Pretty soon the government will be formed. People will have positions so I think what you are going to see is more and more U.S. assistance to directly get rid of the Assad regime. And I think the additional line is that we're going to go really hard back at Moscow because Moscow's assistance has been pivotal in keeping Assad in office.</s>BURNETT: And how do we go hard back at Moscow?</s>CLARK: Well, I mean, first of all, you go at them diplomatically. Secondly, their interests where the United States and Russia have certain parallel interests and you work those interests. The Russians believe in linkage. Everything with the Russians is about linkage. So what does Putin get from continuing to support Assad? One thing he might get a higher oil prices because there's a risk premium on oil. This is important for Russia.</s>BURNETT: Absolutely.</s>CLARK: You know, the United States is going to be a big factor in Russia's future because we increase the oil production and the predictions are predicting more than Russia or Saudi Arabia in five or six years. That's a mortal threat to Russia if it affects the price of oil.</s>BURNETT: All right, and Seth, what damage could be done with these chemical weapons? You know, if we're hearing and this rhetoric out of Dianne Feinstein, Mike Rogers is different. This is -- they're using them. What could they do?</s>SETH JONES, RAND CORPORATION: Well, it's worth noting that the reporting coming out of Syria right now is a little confusing. The Syrian government accused the rebels of using poisons or chemical weapons so both sides are now accusing each other of doing it. If, in fact, the Syrian government has used chemical weapons against its population, against Syrian rebels, this is a serious red line. I think there are a range of options including what the Israelis have already done, trying to target facilities producing the kinds of chemicals. But this goes back to Saddam's gassing of his own population about a decade or two ago and so I think this really changes the dynamics of the discussion in the</s>U.S. BURNETT: Let me just play -- you mentioned the words red line. We've been talking about that. Here's what President Obama has said. Here's why this news, not just from a humanitarian perspective, but whether or not the United States military will get involved, this is why chemical weapons is so important. Here's the president.</s>BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also, to other players on the ground that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical movement around or utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.</s>BURNETT: General, does he make a mistake when he set so clearly what red lines are? People want them. Once you put one out there, if someone crosses it, you are forced to act.</s>CLARK: I don't think it's a mistake. I think it was a clear warning, both to Assad and to his Russian supporters that they can't do this. Now, if the Russians have an influence with Assad, they better rein him back in. As far as the U.S. could do, we talked about diplomacy and linkage with the Russians. But, you know, I didn't talk about the military option, but there's clearly a range of military options here that could be used.</s>BURNETT: All right, that brings me to the other top story tonight that we want to talk about. That's al Qaeda rising because al Qaeda is a big part of the opposition in Syria and why this is so complicated. Violence rippled across Iraq today. It was 10th anniversary of the U.S. invasion. No group has yet claimed responsibility. Signs though point to al Qaeda. The decade-long war in Iraq has caused 4,488 American lives, more than 100,000 Iraqi lives and more than $800 billion. Today, another 55 Iraqis lost their lives, 200 more wounded. There were 17 car bombs, seven roadside bombs and two shootings that ripped through mostly Shiite neighborhoods. Arwa Damon has been covering the war since it began and she is in Baghdad tonight. Right before the program, I spoke with her and I asked her how much strength al Qaeda has gained since the U.S. invasion?</s>ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, there was a point in time when there were huge swaths of the country that were in fact controlled by al Qaeda. Now, that is no longer the case. And at one point, al Qaeda's capabilities in Iraq were, in fact, significantly diminished. What's been especially disturbing that we have been seeing over the last few months is the re-emergence of al Qaeda, especially in Iraq's Al Anbar Province predominantly Sunni to the west of the capital. There have been, for example, ongoing demonstrations there. People demanding certain things, legitimate things from the Iraqi government, but at the same time, we have also been beginning to see over the last few weeks al Qaeda's flag raised, as well. You can just imagine the ripple of fear that's causing for the population in of itself and not just today's attacks that bear the hallmarks of al Qaeda. Last week, a coordinated complex attack on the justice ministry located in what's supposed to be one of the safest parts of the capital. So we're most certainly now seeing al Qaeda beginning to regain quite a bit of its strength.</s>BURNETT: General Clark, is America safer or less safe?</s>CLARK: Well, we built -- I mean, we got rid of Saddam Hussein. That's good. Everybody understands that, but we gave an opening for al Qaeda to come in to Iraq. To sink roots in. To have tar gets of Americans and now they're feeding on the schism between the Sunni and the Shia population and that's -- it's more than the Iraqi security forces, which are Shia dominated can handle. So are we safer? Very complicated question. We've learned a lot of things as a result of our experience in Iraq. We got great capabilities in our special forces and so forth. But if it had been up to me, I wouldn't have done it in the first place.</s>BURNETT: You wouldn't have done it in the first place?</s>CLARK: I wouldn't have gone in there.</s>BURNETT: Seth, what's your point of view? Are we less safe? It's not just Iraq where al Qaeda has now gotten another stronghold. It is, of course, Syria and why you can go and support the opposition in Syria and you might actually be, yes, supporting a lot of al Qaeda- linked groups.</s>JONES: Well, I think General Clark is right on the range of positive aspects including political freedoms now in Iraq right now, but when it comes to the terrorism problem, I think there's no question right now that the terrorism problem is worse. If you look at the number of al Qaeda in Iraq attacks, they're averaging about 30 attacks per month, which is a 50 percent increase from 2011. It's a last year that the U.S. military was in Iraq. And then in neighboring Syria, one of the most significant and powerful terrorist groups is in al Qaeda in Iraq affiliate. They have heavy weapons now, which they have accumulated from a range of attacks against Syrian bases. They have got inroads in to networks in Europe right now. So I think on the terrorism front, things are not looking good in this area right now.</s>BURNETT: All right, thanks very much to both of you and we appreciate your time tonight. Still OUTFRONT, the assault weapons ban proposed by a Democrat has been shelved. Is Harry Reid the person to blame? Plus, Washington State has finally found a pot czar, the state's high commander comes OUTFRONT, of course. And a chilling new video of a would-be killer, we are going to take you inside the Florida college dorm room full of explosives and weapons with the video that the cops took when they went in.