Projections from the Department of Infrastructure indicate that 38% of all properties in Northern Ireland will be at risk of flooding by 2080.
In terms of future risk, railway lines are the only infrastructure type in Northern Ireland projected to increase in risk from river flooding (under a low population and no additional adaptation ‘reduced whole system’ scenario). Risk increases by 50% by the 2080s with 4°C global warming at 2100. All other infrastructure types are projected to decrease in risk. Freshwater sites, electricity substations, railway lines and railway stations are projected to see an increase in risk from surface water flooding. By the 2080s in a +4°C at 2100 scenario, this increase in risk ranges from 49% for freshwater sites to 137% for railway lines. The risk to power stations is projected to decrease under all scenarios. [...] In future, climate change will increase the number of properties at risk of flooding from all sources, and these could be in areas that have not previously been at risk of flooding. The largest increase in risk in Northern Ireland is related to coastal flooding, which is projected to increase by 550% by 2080s (in a high population scenario and with 4°C global warming at 2100) (see figure 9).