India remains the world’s fastest growing large economy.
The macroeconomic assumptions underlying USDA’s long-term projections reflect a dichotomy between relatively weak long-run sustainable growth in developed countries and relatively strong, above-average growth in developing countries. As a result, developing countries are projected to become a larger part of the world economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) worldwide is projected to increase at an average annual rate of around 3.3 percent over the next decade. In developing countries, the projected growth rate is 5.6 percent per year. The developing-country share of global real GDP is expected to climb from 33 percent in 2010 to 42 percent by 2022. Robust economic growth is anticipated across most developing countries in Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. China and India are expected to remain among the world’s fastest growing economies, each averaging more than 7 percent a year. [...] Among countries in Asia, Indonesia has the fastest growing wheat imports and is expected to replace Brazil as the world’s second-largest wheat-importing country. Historically, India has been a big wheat importer in some years and a big exporter in others. In the past 2 years, India exported significant amounts of wheat, partially as a result of high price-supports and large government stocks. Exports from India are expected to be larger than usual for several years until stocks are drawn down from high levels.