In this paper, we address the problem of popularity prediction of online videos shared in social media. We prove that this challenging task can be approached using recently proposed deep neural network architectures. We cast the popularity prediction problem as a classification task and we aim to solve it using only visual cues extracted from videos. To that end, we propose a new method based on a Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Network (LRCN) that incorporates the sequentiality of the information in the model. Results obtained on a dataset of over 37’000 videos published on Facebook show that using our method leads to over 30 improvement in prediction performance over the traditional shallow approaches and can provide valuable insights for content creators.
@cite_0: Predicting Web content popularity is an important task for supporting the design and evaluation of a wide range of systems, from targeted advertising to effective search and recommendation services. We here present two simple models for predicting the future popularity of Web content based on historical information given by early popularity measures. Our approach is validated on datasets consisting of videos from the widely used YouTube video-sharing portal. Our experimental results show that, compared to a state-of-the-art baseline model, our proposed models lead to significant decreases in relative squared errors, reaching up to 20 reduction on average, and larger reductions (of up to 71 ) for videos that experience a high peak in popularity in their early days followed by a sharp decrease in popularity.
@cite_10: We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user's access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the long-term dynamics of individual submissions from initial data. In the case of Digg, measuring access to given stories during the first two hours allows us to forecast their popularity 30 days ahead with remarkable accuracy, while downloads of Youtube videos need to be followed for 10 days to attain the same performance. The differing time scales of the predictions are shown to be due to differences in how content is consumed on the two portals: Digg stories quickly become outdated, while Youtube videos are still found long after they are initially submitted to the portal. We show that predictions are more accurate for submissions for which attention decays quickly, whereas predictions for evergreen content will be prone to larger errors.
@cite_11: Building upon recent Deep Neural Network architectures, current approaches lying in the intersection of computer vision and natural language processing have achieved unprecedented breakthroughs in tasks like automatic captioning or image retrieval. Most of these learning methods, though, rely on large training sets of images associated with human annotations that specifically describe the visual content. In this paper we propose to go a step further and explore the more complex cases where textual descriptions are loosely related to the images. We focus on the particular domain of News articles in which the textual content often expresses connotative and ambiguous relations that are only suggested but not directly inferred from images. We introduce new deep learning methods that address source detection, popularity prediction, article illustration and geolocation of articles. An adaptive CNN architecture is proposed, that shares most of the structure for all the tasks, and is suitable for multitask and transfer learning. Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis is deployed for article illustration, and a new loss function based on Great Circle Distance is proposed for geolocation. Furthermore, we present BreakingNews, a novel dataset with approximately 100K news articles including images, text and captions, and enriched with heterogeneous meta-data (such as GPS coordinates and popularity metrics). We show this dataset to be appropriate to explore all aforementioned problems, for which we provide a baseline performance using various Deep Learning architectures, and different representations of the textual and visual features. We report very promising results and bring to light several limitations of current state-of-the-art in this kind of domain, which we hope will help spur progress in the field.
Popularity prediction of online content has gained a lot of attention within the research community due to the ubiquity of Internet and a stunning increase in the number of its users @cite_10 @cite_0 @cite_11 . None of the above mentioned works, however, considers using visual information for popularity prediction, while the method proposed in this paper relies solely on the visual cues.