Detection of emerging topics are now receiving renewed interest motivated by the rapid growth of social networks. Conventional term-frequency-based approaches may not be appropriate in this context, because the information exchanged are not only texts but also images, URLs, and videos. We focus on the social aspects of theses networks. That is, the links between users that are generated dynamically intentionally or unintentionally through replies, mentions, and retweets. We propose a probability model of the mentioning behaviour of a social network user, and propose to detect the emergence of a new topic from the anomaly measured through the model. We combine the proposed mention anomaly score with a recently proposed change-point detection technique based on the Sequentially Discounting Normalized Maximum Likelihood (SDNML), or with Kleinberg's burst model. Aggregating anomaly scores from hundreds of users, we show that we can detect emerging topics only based on the reply mention relationships in social network posts. We demonstrate our technique in a number of real data sets we gathered from Twitter. The experiments show that the proposed mention-anomaly-based approaches can detect new topics at least as early as the conventional term-frequency-based approach, and sometimes much earlier when the keyword is ill-defined.
@cite_0: Topic Detection and Tracking (TDT) is a DARPA-sponsored initiative to investigate the state of the art in finding and following new events in a stream of broadcast news stories. The TDT problem consists of three major tasks: (1) segmenting a stream of data, especially recognized speech, into distinct stories; (2) identifying those news stories that are the first to discuss a new event occurring in the news; and (3) given a small number of sample news stories about an event, finding all following stories in the stream.
@cite_7: Temporal Text Mining (TTM) is concerned with discovering temporal patterns in text information collected over time. Since most text information bears some time stamps, TTM has many applications in multiple domains, such as summarizing events in news articles and revealing research trends in scientific literature. In this paper, we study a particular TTM task -- discovering and summarizing the evolutionary patterns of themes in a text stream. We define this new text mining problem and present general probabilistic methods for solving this problem through (1) discovering latent themes from text; (2) constructing an evolution graph of themes; and (3) analyzing life cycles of themes. Evaluation of the proposed methods on two different domains (i.e., news articles and literature) shows that the proposed methods can discover interesting evolutionary theme patterns effectively.
@cite_6: In a wide range of business areas dealing with text data streams, including CRM, knowledge management, and Web monitoring services, it is an important issue to discover topic trends and analyze their dynamics in real-time. Specifically we consider the following three tasks in topic trend analysis: 1)Topic Structure Identification; identifying what kinds of main topics exist and how important they are, 2)Topic Emergence Detection; detecting the emergence of a new topic and recognizing how it grows, 3)Topic Characterization; identifying the characteristics for each of main topics. For real topic analysis systems, we may require that these three tasks be performed in an on-line fashion rather than in a retrospective way, and be dealt with in a single framework. This paper proposes a new topic analysis framework which satisfies this requirement from a unifying viewpoint that a topic structure is modeled using a finite mixture model and that any change of a topic trend is tracked by learning the finite mixture model dynamically. In this framework we propose the usage of a time-stamp based discounting learning algorithm in order to realize real-time topic structure identification. This enables tracking the topic structure adaptively by forgetting out-of-date statistics. Further we apply the theory of dynamic model selection to detecting changes of main components in the finite mixture model in order to realize topic emergence detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework using real data collected at a help desk to show that we are able to track dynamics of topic trends in a timely fashion.
@cite_11: We present a unified model of what was traditionally viewed as two separate tasks: data association and intensity tracking of multiple topics over time. In the data association part, the task is to assign a topic (a class) to each data point, and the intensity tracking part models the bursts and changes in intensities of topics over time. Our approach to this problem combines an extension of Factorial Hidden Markov models for topic intensity tracking with exponential order statistics for implicit data association. Experiments on text and email datasets show that the interplay of classification and topic intensity tracking improves the accuracy of both classification and intensity tracking. Even a little noise in topic assignments can mislead the traditional algorithms. However, our approach detects correct topic intensities even with 30 topic noise.
Detection and tracking of topics have been studied extensively in the area of topic detection and tracking (TDT) @cite_0 . In this context, the main task is to either classify a new document into one of the known topics (tracking) or to detect that it belongs to none of the known categories. Subsequently, temporal structure of topics have been modeled and analyzed through dynamic model selection @cite_6 , temporal text mining @cite_7 , and factorial hidden Markov models @cite_11 .