Urban dispersal events are processes where an unusually large number of people leave the same area in a short period. Early prediction of dispersal events is important in mitigating congestion and safety risks and making better dispatching decisions for taxi and ride-sharing fleets. Existing work mostly focuses on predicting taxi demand in the near future by learning patterns from historical data. However, they fail in case of abnormality because dispersal events with abnormally high demand are non-repetitive and violate common assumptions such as smoothness in demand change over time. Instead, in this paper we argue that dispersal events follow a complex pattern of trips and other related features in the past, which can be used to predict such events. Therefore, we formulate the dispersal event prediction problem as a survival analysis problem. We propose a two-stage framework (DILSA), where a deep learning model combined with survival analysis is developed to predict the probability of a dispersal event and its demand volume. We conduct extensive case studies and experiments on the NYC Yellow taxi dataset from 2014-2016. Results show that DILSA can predict events in the next 5 hours with F1-score of 0.7 and with average time error of 18 minutes. It is orders of magnitude better than the state-ofthe-art deep learning approaches for taxi demand prediction.
@cite_10: The scan statistic is commonly used to test if a one dimensional point process is purely random, or if any clusters can be detected. Here it is simultaneously extended in three directions:(i) a spatial scan statistic for the detection of clusters in a multi-dimensional point process is proposed, (ii) the area of the scanning window is allowed to vary, and (iii) the baseline process may be any inhomogeneous Poisson process or Bernoulli process with intensity pro-portional to some known function. The main interest is in detecting clusters not explained by the baseline process. These methods are illustrated on an epidemiological data set, but there are other potential areas of application as well.
@cite_21: Spatial event detection is an important and challenging problem. Unlike traditional event detection that focuses on the timing of global urgent event, the task of spatial event detection is to detect the spatial regions (e.g. clusters of neighboring cities) where urgent events occur. In this paper, we focus on the problem of spatial event detection using textual information in social media. We observe that, when a spatial event occurs, the topics relevant to the event are often discussed more coherently in cities near the event location than those far away. In order to capture this pattern, we propose a new method called Graph Topic Scan Statistic (Graph-TSS) that corresponds to a generalized log-likelihood ratio test based on topic modeling. We first demonstrate that the detection of spatial event regions under Graph-TSS is NP-hard due to a reduction from classical node-weighted prize-collecting Steiner tree problem (NW-PCST). We then design an efficient algorithm that approximately maximizes the graph topic scan statistic over spatial regions of arbitrary form. As a case study, we consider three applications using Twitter data, including Argentina civil unrest event detection, Chile earthquake detection, and United States influenza disease outbreak detection. Empirical evidence demonstrates that the proposed Graph-TSS performs superior over state-of-the-art methods on both running time and accuracy.
@cite_1: Many types of human mobility data, such as flows of taxicabs, card swiping data of subways, bike trip data and Call Details Records (CDR), can be modeled by a Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG). STG is a directed graph in which vertices and edges are associated with spatio-temporal properties (e.g. the traffic flow on a road and the geospatial location of an intersection). In this paper, we instantly detect interesting phenomena, entitled black holes and volcanos, from an STG. Specifically, a black hole is a subgraph (of an STG) that has the overall inflow greater than the overall outflow by a threshold, while a volcano is a subgraph with the overall outflow greater than the overall inflow by a threshold (detecting volcanos from an STG is proved to be equivalent to the detection of black holes). The online detection of black holes volcanos can timely reflect anomalous events, such as disasters, catastrophic accidents, and therefore help keep public safety. The patterns of black holes volcanos and the relations between them reveal human mobility patterns in a city, thus help formulate a better city planning or improve a system's operation efficiency. Based on a well-designed STG index, we propose a two-step black hole detection algorithm: The first step identifies a set of candidate grid cells to start from; the second step expands an initial edge in a candidate cell to a black hole and prunes other candidate cells after a black hole is detected. Then, we adapt this detection algorithm to a continuous black hole detection scenario. We evaluate our method based on Beijing taxicab data and the bike trip data in New York, finding urban anomalies and human mobility patterns.
@cite_6: Detecting local events (e.g., protest, disaster) at their onsets is an important task for a wide spectrum of applications, ranging from disaster control to crime monitoring and place recommendation. Recent years have witnessed growing interest in leveraging geo-tagged tweet streams for online local event detection. Nevertheless, the accuracies of existing methods still remain unsatisfactory for building reliable local event detection systems. We propose TrioVecEvent, a method that leverages multimodal embeddings to achieve accurate online local event detection. The effectiveness of TrioVecEvent is underpinned by its two-step detection scheme. First, it ensures a high coverage of the underlying local events by dividing the tweets in the query window into coherent geo-topic clusters. To generate quality geo-topic clusters, we capture short-text semantics by learning multimodal embeddings of the location, time, and text, and then perform online clustering with a novel Bayesian mixture model. Second, TrioVecEvent considers the geo-topic clusters as candidate events and extracts a set of features for classifying the candidates. Leveraging the multimodal embeddings as background knowledge, we introduce discriminative features that can well characterize local events, which enables pinpointing true local events from the candidate pool with a small amount of training data. We have used crowdsourcing to evaluate TrioVecEvent, and found that it improves the performance of the state-of-the-art method by a large margin.
@cite_0: 
@cite_19: Event detection in social media is an important but challenging problem. Most existing approaches are based on burst detection, topic modeling, or clustering techniques, which cannot naturally model the implicit heterogeneous network structure in social media. As a result, only limited information, such as terms and geographic locations, can be used. This paper presents Non-Parametric Heterogeneous Graph Scan (NPHGS), a new approach that considers the entire heterogeneous network for event detection: we first model the network as a "sensor" network, in which each node senses its "neighborhood environment" and reports an empirical p-value measuring its current level of anomalousness for each time interval (e.g., hour or day). Then, we efficiently maximize a nonparametric scan statistic over connected subgraphs to identify the most anomalous network clusters. Finally, the event represented by each cluster is summarized with information such as type of event, geographical locations, time, and participants. As a case study, we consider two applications using Twitter data, civil unrest event detection and rare disease outbreak detection, and present empirical evaluations illustrating the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approach.
@cite_5: Background The ability to detect disease outbreaks early is important in order to minimize morbidity and mortality through timely implementation of disease prevention and control measures. Many national, state, and local health departments are launching disease surveillance systems with daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits, ambulance dispatch calls, or pharmacy sales for which population-at-risk information is unavailable or irrelevant. Methods and Findings We propose a prospective space–time permutation scan statistic for the early detection of disease outbreaks that uses only case numbers, with no need for population-at-risk data. It makes minimal assumptions about the time, geographical location, or size of the outbreak, and it adjusts for natural purely spatial and purely temporal variation. The new method was evaluated using daily analyses of hospital emergency department visits in New York City. Four of the five strongest signals were likely local precursors to citywide outbreaks due to rotavirus, norovirus, and influenza. The number of false signals was at most modest.
@cite_13: Given a directed graph, the problem of blackhole mining is to identify groups of nodes, called blackhole patterns, in a way such that the average in-weight of this group is significantly larger than the average out-weight of the same group. The problem of finding volcano patterns is a dual problem of mining blackhole patterns. Therefore, we focus on discovering the blackhole patterns. Indeed, in this article, we develop a generalized blackhole mining framework. Specifically, we first design two pruning schemes for reducing the computational cost by reducing both the number of candidate patterns and the average computation cost for each candidate pattern. The first pruning scheme is to exploit the concept of combination dominance to reduce the exponential growth search space. Based on this pruning approach, we develop the gBlackhole algorithm. Instead, the second pruning scheme is an approximate approach, named approxBlackhole, which can strike a balance between the efficiency and the completeness of blackhole mining. Finally, experimental results on real-world data show that the performance of approxBlackhole can be several orders of magnitude faster than gBlackhole, and both of them have huge computational advantages over the brute-force approach. Also, we show that the blackhole mining algorithm can be used to capture some suspicious financial fraud patterns.
@cite_20: We consider the simultaneous monitoring of a large number of spatially localized time series in order to detect emerging spatial patterns. For example, in disease surveillance, we detect emerging outbreaks by monitoring electronically available public health data, e.g.Â aggregate daily counts of Emergency Department visits. We propose a two-step approach based on the expectation-based scan statistic: we first compute the expected count for each recent day for each spatial location, then find spatial regions (groups of nearby locations) where the recent counts are significantly higher than expected. By aggregating information across multiple time series rather than monitoring each series separately, we can improve the timeliness, accuracy, and spatial resolution of detection. We evaluate several variants of the expectation-based scan statistic on the disease surveillance task (using synthetic outbreaks injected into real-world hospital Emergency Department data), and draw conclusions about which models and methods are most appropriate for which surveillance tasks.
Event detection has been widely studied in various domains, including public health, urban computing, and social network analysis. The works @cite_10 @cite_5 @cite_20 and other recent works on event detection @cite_13 @cite_1 use already observed counts. An event is defined as a region with significantly higher counts, such as disease reports or number of taxi drops. Social media posts and geo-tagged tweets have been used as well to detect and forecast events such as social unrests and protests @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_21 @cite_6 . Regions and time windows where the frequency of certain keywords exhibit abnormal changes are identified as events. These works do not use mobility data. The of the events such as gathering or dispersing .