This paper studies the sample complexity of searching over multiple populations. We consider a large number of populations, each corresponding to either distribution P0 or P1. The goal of the search problem studied here is to find one population corresponding to distribution P1 with as few samples as possible. The main contribution is to quantify the number of samples needed to correctly find one such population. We consider two general approaches: nonadaptive sampling methods, which sample each population a predetermined number of times until a population following P1 is found, and adaptive sampling methods, which employ sequential sampling schemes for each population. We first derive a lower bound on the number of samples required by any sampling scheme. We then consider an adaptive procedure consisting of a series of sequential probability ratio tests, and show it comes within a constant factor of the lower bound. We give explicit expressions for this constant when samples of the populations follow Gaussian and Bernoulli distributions. An alternative adaptive scheme is discussed which does not require full knowledge of P1, and comes within a constant factor of the optimal scheme. For comparison, a lower bound on the sampling requirements of any nonadaptive scheme is presented.
@cite_19: We study the problem of learning a most biased coin among a set of coins by tossing the coins adaptively. The goal is to minimize the number of tosses until we identify a coin i* whose posterior probability of being most biased is at least 1-delta for a given delta. Under a particular probabilistic model, we give an optimal algorithm, i.e., an algorithm that minimizes the expected number of future tosses. The problem is closely related to finding the best arm in the multi-armed bandit problem using adaptive strategies. Our algorithm employs an optimal adaptive strategy -- a strategy that performs the best possible action at each step after observing the outcomes of all previous coin tosses. Consequently, our algorithm is also optimal for any starting history of outcomes. To our knowledge, this is the first algorithm that employs an optimal adaptive strategy under a Bayesian setting for this problem. Our proof of optimality employs tools from the field of Markov games.
An instance of the quickest search problem was also studied recently in @cite_19 , where the authors investigate the problem of finding a biased coin with the fewest flips. Our more general results are derived using different techniques, and cover this case with @math and @math as Bernoulli distributions. In @cite_19 , the authors present a bound on the expected number of flips needed to find a biased coin. The bound derived from instantiating our more general theory (see example 2 and Corollary ) is a minimum of 32 times tighter than the bound in @cite_19 .