We consider the problem of generating randomized control sequences for complex networked systems typically actuated by human agents. Our approach leverages a concept known as control improvisation, which is based on a combination of data-driven learning and controller synthesis from formal specifications. We learn from existing data a generative model (for instance, an explicit-duration hidden Markov model, or EDHMM) and then supervise this model in order to guarantee that the generated sequences satisfy some desirable specifications given in Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL). We present an implementation of our approach and apply it to the problem of mimicking the use of lighting appliances in a residential unit, with potential applications to home security and resource management. We present experimental results showing that our approach produces realistic control sequences, similar to recorded data based on human actuation, while satisfying suitable formal requirements.
@cite_4: There is a growing interest in reducing energy consumption and the associated greenhouse gas emissions in every sector of the economy. The residential sector is a substantial consumer of energy in every country, and therefore a focus for energy consumption efforts. Since the energy consumption characteristics of the residential sector are complex and inter-related, comprehensive models are needed to assess the technoeconomic impacts of adopting energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies suitable for residential applications. The aim of this paper is to provide an up-to-date review of the various modeling techniques used for modeling residential sector energy consumption. Two distinct approaches are identified: top-down and bottom-up. The top-down approach treats the residential sector as an energy sink and is not concerned with individual end-uses. It utilizes historic aggregate energy values and regresses the energy consumption of the housing stock as a function of top-level variables such as macroeconomic indicators (e.g. gross domestic product, unemployment, and inflation), energy price, and general climate. The bottom-up approach extrapolates the estimated energy consumption of a representative set of individual houses to regional and national levels, and consists of two distinct methodologies: the statistical method and the engineering method. Each technique relies on different levels of input information, different calculation or simulation techniques, and provides results with different applicability. A critical review of each technique, focusing on the strengths, shortcomings and purposes, is provided along with a review of models reported in the literature.
@cite_6: We present a novel energy management system for residential demand response. The algorithm, named CAES, reduces residential energy costs and smooths energy usage. CAES is an online learning application that implicitly estimates the impact of future energy prices and of consumer decisions on long term costs and schedules residential device usage. CAES models both energy prices and residential device usage as Markov, but does not assume knowledge of the structure or transition probabilities of these Markov chains. CAES learns continuously and adapts to individual consumer preferences and pricing modifications over time. In numerical simulations CAES reduced average end-user financial costs from @math to @math with respect to a price-unaware energy allocation.
@cite_5: 
@cite_16: In this paper, the modeling of building end-use energy profile is comprehensively investigated. Top-down and Bottom-up approaches are discussed with a focus on the latter for better integration with occupant information. Compared to the Time-Of-Use (TOU) data used in previous Bottom-up models, this work utilizes high frequency sampled appliance power consumption data from wireless sensor network, and hence builds an appliance-data-driven probability based end-use energy profile model. ON OFF probabilities of appliances are used in this model, to build a non-homogeneous Markov Chain, compared to the duration statistics based model that is widely used in other works. The simulation results show the capability of the model to capture the diversity and variability of different categories of end-use appliance energy profile, which can further help on the design of a modern robust building power system.
@cite_10: With recent developments in the infrastructure of smart meters and smart grid, more electric power data is available and allows real-time easy data access. Modeling individual home appliance loads is important for tasks such as non-intrusive load disaggregation, load forecasting, and demand response support. Previous methods usually require sub-metering individual appliances in a home separately to determine the appliance models, which may not be practical, since we may only be able to observe aggregated real power signals for the entire-home through smart meters deployed in the field. In this paper, we propose a model, named Explicit-Duration Hidden Markov Model with differential observations (EDHMM-diff), for detecting and estimating individual home appliance loads from aggregated power signals collected by ordinary smart meters. Experiments on synthetic data and real data demonstrate that the EDHMM-diff model and the specialized forward-backward algorithm can effectively model major home appliance loads.
@cite_17: Smart energy management is an important problem in Smart Grid network, and demand response (DR) is one of the key enabling technologies. If each home uses automated demand response which would opportunistically schedule devices that are flexible to run at any time in a large time window, towards the slots with lower electricity prices, peaks at these slots may happen. We denote such peaks as rebound peaks. We address the potential rebound peak problems of automated DR algorithms, and provide possible solutions. We illustrate why a rebound peak is possible via the insights we obtain from the optimal automated DR algorithm. We show that if the utility electricity supply cost is assumed to be a homogeneous function in the energy consumption over a certain time span, a system of multiple homes and utility company has the lowest total electricity supply cost if the electricity consumption from all the homes is flat over the time span. We study multiple approaches to reduce the rebound peak, and accordingly propose algorithms for DR at each home. Effectiveness of the approaches is verified by numerical results.
Appliance modeling in residential settings has several proposed benefits, including reduced power consumption, automated actuation of smart appliances subject to energy pricing, microgrid load balancing, and home security @cite_4 . Additionally, personalized advisory tools have gained popularity to provide adaptive demand-response prediction @cite_5 @cite_17 . Bayesian modeling techniques for home appliance load modeling has been an emerging topic of interest @cite_16 , and EDHMM-based models have previously been proposed for load disaggregation @cite_10 . Markov modeling of uncertainties in demand and energy pricing has been studied in @cite_6 , which presents a reinforcement learning based approach to optimal load scheduling.