In this work, we propose a simple but effective method to interpret black-box machine learning models globally. That is, we use a compact binary tree, the interpretation tree, to explicitly represent the most important decision rules that are implicitly contained in the black-box machine learning models. This tree is learned from the contribution matrix which consists of the contributions of input variables to predicted scores for each single prediction. To generate the interpretation tree, a unified process recursively partitions the input variable space by maximizing the difference in the average contribution of the split variable between the divided spaces. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in diagnosing machine learning models on multiple tasks. Also, it is useful for new knowledge discovery as such insights are not easily identifiable when only looking at single predictions. In general, our work makes it easier and more efficient for human beings to understand machine learning models.
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@cite_22: We develop three efficient approaches for generating visual explanations from 3D convolutional neural networks (3D-CNNs) for Alzheimer's disease classification. One approach conducts sensitivity analysis on hierarchical 3D image segmentation, and the other two visualize network activations on a spatial map. Visual checks and a quantitative localization benchmark indicate that all approaches identify important brain parts for Alzheimer's disease diagnosis. Comparative analysis show that the sensitivity analysis based approach has difficulty handling loosely distributed cerebral cortex, and approaches based on visualization of activations are constrained by the resolution of the convolutional layer. The complementarity of these methods improves the understanding of 3D-CNNs in Alzheimer's disease classification from different perspectives.
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@cite_9: Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally varound the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.
@cite_1: Neural machine translation is a recently proposed approach to machine translation. Unlike the traditional statistical machine translation, the neural machine translation aims at building a single neural network that can be jointly tuned to maximize the translation performance. The models proposed recently for neural machine translation often belong to a family of encoder-decoders and consists of an encoder that encodes a source sentence into a fixed-length vector from which a decoder generates a translation. In this paper, we conjecture that the use of a fixed-length vector is a bottleneck in improving the performance of this basic encoder-decoder architecture, and propose to extend this by allowing a model to automatically (soft-)search for parts of a source sentence that are relevant to predicting a target word, without having to form these parts as a hard segment explicitly. With this new approach, we achieve a translation performance comparable to the existing state-of-the-art phrase-based system on the task of English-to-French translation. Furthermore, qualitative analysis reveals that the (soft-)alignments found by the model agree well with our intuition.
@cite_23: We applied and developed several machine learning techniques, including linear model, tree-based model, and deep neural networks to forecast expenditures for high utilizers in a very large public health program. The results show promise for predicting health care expenditures for these high utilizers. To improve interpretability, we quantified the contributions of influential input variables to the prediction score. These results help to advance the field toward targeted preventive care to lower overall health care costs.
@cite_34: Accuracy and interpretation are two goals of any successful predictive models. Most existing works have to suffer the tradeoff between the two by either picking complex black box models such as recurrent neural networks (RNN) or relying on less accurate traditional models with better interpretation such as logistic regression. To address this dilemma, we present REverse Time AttentIoN model (RETAIN) for analyzing Electronic Health Records (EHR) data that achieves high accuracy while remaining clinically interpretable. RETAIN is a two-level neural attention model that can find influential past visits and significant clinical variables within those visits (e.g,. key diagnoses). RETAIN mimics physician practice by attending the EHR data in a reverse time order so that more recent clinical visits will likely get higher attention. Experiments on a large real EHR dataset of 14 million visits from 263K patients over 8 years confirmed the comparable predictive accuracy and computational scalability to the state-of-the-art methods such as RNN. Finally, we demonstrate the clinical interpretation with concrete examples from RETAIN.
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@cite_17: How can we explain the predictions of a black-box model? In this paper, we use influence functions -- a classic technique from robust statistics -- to trace a model's prediction through the learning algorithm and back to its training data, thereby identifying training points most responsible for a given prediction. To scale up influence functions to modern machine learning settings, we develop a simple, efficient implementation that requires only oracle access to gradients and Hessian-vector products. We show that even on non-convex and non-differentiable models where the theory breaks down, approximations to influence functions can still provide valuable information. On linear models and convolutional neural networks, we demonstrate that influence functions are useful for multiple purposes: understanding model behavior, debugging models, detecting dataset errors, and even creating visually-indistinguishable training-set attacks.
There are several ways to achieve local model interpretation. First, people structure the model in a way that the output is linear in terms of input variables so that the weights could be used as a measure of importance. For example, @cite_34 uses the neural attention mechanism @cite_1 to generate interpretable attention weights in recurrent neural networks. However, due to the stochastic training process used, these attentions are shown to be unstable @cite_23 . The second way uses model specific heuristics to decompose the predicted scores by input variables. @cite_13 described such methods for regularized regression and gradient boosted machine. Third, locally approximating sophisticated models using simple interpretable model could explain individual predictions. Gradient vector and sparse linear methods are tried as the local explainer @cite_7 @cite_30 @cite_9 @cite_22 . Finally, influence functions from robust statistics can be used to track a particular prediction back to training data that are responsible for it @cite_17 . In conclusion, all local model interpretation methods work at the single data sample level, generating the contributions of input variables to the final predicted score for a specific data sample.