In this paper, we address the problem of popularity prediction of online videos shared in social media. We prove that this challenging task can be approached using recently proposed deep neural network architectures. We cast the popularity prediction problem as a classification task and we aim to solve it using only visual cues extracted from videos. To that end, we propose a new method based on a Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Network (LRCN) that incorporates the sequentiality of the information in the model. Results obtained on a dataset of over 37’000 videos published on Facebook show that using our method leads to over 30 improvement in prediction performance over the traditional shallow approaches and can provide valuable insights for content creators.
@cite_3: Hundreds of thousands of photographs are uploaded to the internet every minute through various social networking and photo sharing platforms. While some images get millions of views, others are completely ignored. Even from the same users, different photographs receive different number of views. This begs the question: What makes a photograph popular? Can we predict the number of views a photograph will receive even before it is uploaded? These are some of the questions we address in this work. We investigate two key components of an image that affect its popularity, namely the image content and social context. Using a dataset of about 2.3 million images from Flickr, we demonstrate that we can reliably predict the normalized view count of images with a rank correlation of 0.81 using both image content and social cues. In this paper, we show the importance of image cues such as color, gradients, deep learning features and the set of objects present, as well as the importance of various social cues such as number of friends or number of photos uploaded that lead to high or low popularity of images.
The first attempt to use visual cues in the context of popularity prediction is the work of @cite_3 , where they address the problem of popularity prediction for online images available on Flickr. Using a dataset of over 2 million images, the authors train a set of Support Vector Machines using visual features such as image color histogram or deep neural network outputs and apply them in the context of popularity prediction. Following this methodology, we use recently proposed neural network architectures for the purpose of video popularity prediction based on visual cues only.