In Crowdfunding platforms, people turn their prototype ideas into real products by raising money from the crowd, or invest in someone else's projects. In reward-based crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo, selecting accurate reward delivery duration becomes crucial for creators, backers, and platform providers to keep the trust between the creators and the backers, and the trust between the platform providers and users. According to Kickstarter, 35 backers did not receive rewards on time. Unfortunately, little is known about on-time and late reward delivery projects, and there is no prior work to estimate reward delivery duration. To fill the gap, in this paper, we (i) extract novel features that reveal latent difficulty levels of project rewards; (ii) build predictive models to identify whether a creator will deliver all rewards in a project on time or not; and (iii) build a regression model to estimate accurate reward delivery duration (i.e., how long it will take to produce and deliver all the rewards). Experimental results show that our models achieve good performance -- 82.5 accuracy, 78.1 RMSE, and 0.108 NRMSE at the first 5 of the longest reward delivery duration.
@cite_28: Trust is essential for beginning and maintaining relationships online where assessing uncertainties and risks is difficult. While product delays have been shown to reduce trust in e-commerce settings, we understand little about the effect of delays on trust in the increasingly popular context of crowdfunding. In a mixed method study, we examine what factors influence backers' trust in crowdfunding when rewards are delayed. Based on in-depth interviews with crowdfunding participants, we found that a rich set of factors influenced backers' trust including backers' role identity and domain knowledge, backer's research on a creator's background, creators' communication during delays, and duration of delays. To better understand the factors affecting delays, we conducted a regression analysis with 4,089 delayed projects and found that the funding goal, number of backers, percent raised, number of reward levels, and creator's previous crowdfunding experience are associated with the duration of delay. We discuss design implications for managing delays and maintaining trust in crowdfunding.
Recently, @cite_28 interviewed crowdfunding participants and found various factors which influenced backers' trust. They also conducted analysis for 4,089 delayed projects to understand how 8 factors were related to delayed duration. However, they did not study which project will pass estimated delivery date, nor how long a reward delivery including production will take.