Many social media platforms offer a mechanism for readers to react to comments, both positively and negatively, which in aggregate can be thought of as community endorsement. This paper addresses the problem of predicting community endorsement in online discussions, leveraging both the participant response structure and the text of the comment. The different types of features are integrated in a neural network that uses a novel architecture to learn latent modes of discussion structure that perform as well as deep neural networks but are more interpretable. In addition, the latent modes can be used to weight text features thereby improving prediction accuracy.
@cite_26: Consider a person trying to spread an important message on a social network. He she can spend hours trying to craft the message. Does it actually matter? While there has been extensive prior work looking into predicting popularity of socialmedia content, the effect of wording per se has rarely been studied since it is often confounded with the popularity of the author and the topic. To control for these confounding factors, we take advantage of the surprising fact that there are many pairs of tweets containing the same url and written by the same user but employing different wording. Given such pairs, we ask: which version attracts more retweets? This turns out to be a more difficult task than predicting popular topics. Still, humans can answer this question better than chance (but far from perfectly), and the computational methods we develop can do better than both an average human and a strong competing method trained on noncontrolled data.
@cite_4: Social network services have become a viable source of information for users. In Twitter, information deemed important by the community propagates through retweets. Studying the characteristics of such popular messages is important for a number of tasks, such as breaking news detection, personalized message recommendation, viral marketing and others. This paper investigates the problem of predicting the popularity of messages as measured by the number of future retweets and sheds some light on what kinds of factors influence information propagation in Twitter. We formulate the task into a classification problem and study two of its variants by investigating a wide spectrum of features based on the content of the messages, temporal information, metadata of messages and users, as well as structural properties of the users' social graph on a large scale dataset. We show that our method can successfully predict messages which will attract thousands of retweets with good performance.
@cite_6: On-line news agents provide commenting facilities for readers to express their views with regard to news stories. The number of user supplied comments on a news article may be indicative of its importance or impact. We report on exploratory work that predicts the comment volume of news articles prior to publication using five feature sets. We address the prediction task as a two stage classification task: a binary classification identifies articles with the potential to receive comments, and a second binary classification receives the output from the first step to label articles "low" or "high" comment volume. The results show solid performance for the former task, while performance degrades for the latter.
@cite_3: This paper addresses the question of how language use affects community reaction to comments in online discussion forums, and the relative importance of the message vs. the messenger. A new comment ranking task is proposed based on community annotated karma in Reddit discussions, which controls for topic and timing of comments. Experimental work with discussion threads from six subreddits shows that the importance of different types of language features varies with the community of interest.
@cite_0: Retweeting is the key mechanism for information diffusion in Twitter. It emerged as a simple yet powerful way of disseminating information in the Twitter social network. Even though a lot of information is shared in Twitter, little is known yet about how and why certain information spreads more widely than others. In this paper, we examine a number of features that might affect retweetability of tweets. We gathered content and contextual features from 74M tweets and used this data set to identify factors that are significantly associated with retweet rate. We also built a predictive retweet model. We found that, amongst content features, URLs and hashtags have strong relationships with retweetability. Amongst contextual features, the number of followers and followees as well as the age of the account seem to affect retweetability, while, interestingly, the number of past tweets does not predict retweetability of a user's tweet. We believe that this research would inform the design of sensemaking and analytics tools for social media streams.
@cite_24: Creating, placing, and presenting social media content is a difficult problem. In addition to the quality of the content itself, several factors such as the way the content is presented (the title), the community it is posted to, whether it has been seen before, and the time it is posted determine its success. There are also interesting between these factors. For example, the language of the title should be targeted to the community where the content is submitted, yet it should also highlight the distinctive nature of the content. In this paper, we examine how these factors interact to determine the popularity of social media content. We do so by studying resubmissions, i.e., content that has been submitted multiple times, with multiple titles, to multiple different communities. Such data allows us to tease apart' the extent to which each factor influences the success of that content. The models we develop help us understand how to better target social media content: by using the right title, for the right community, at the right time.
@cite_2: In this paper we aim to model the relationship be- tween the text of a political blog post and the comment volume—that is, the total amount of response—that a post will receive. We seek to accurately identify which posts will attract a high-volume response, and also to gain insight about the community of readers and their interests. We design and evaluate variations on a latent- variable topic model that links text to comment volume.
@cite_20: Understanding user participation is fundamental in anticipating the popularity of online content. In this paper, we explore how the number of users' comments during a short observation period after publication can be used to predict the expected popularity of articles published by a countrywide online newspaper. We evaluate a simple linear prediction model on a real dataset of hundreds of thousands of articles and several millions of comments collected over a period of four years. Analyzing the accuracy of our proposed model for different values of its basic parameters we provide valuable insights on the potentials and limitations for predicting content popularity based on early user activity.
@cite_10: Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in understanding such cascading behaviors is in forecasting information outbreaks, where a single post becomes widely popular by being reshared by many users. In this paper, we focus on predicting the final number of reshares of a given post. We build on the theory of self-exciting point processes to develop a statistical model that allows us to make accurate predictions. Our model requires no training or expensive feature engineering. It results in a simple and efficiently computable formula that allows us to answer questions, in real-time, such as: Given a post's resharing history so far, what is our current estimate of its final number of reshares? Is the post resharing cascade past the initial stage of explosive growth? And, which posts will be the most reshared in the future? We validate our model using one month of complete Twitter data and demonstrate a strong improvement in predictive accuracy over existing approaches. Our model gives only 15 relative error in predicting final size of an average information cascade after observing it for just one hour.
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@cite_17: News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional feature space derived from properties of an article and evaluate the efficacy of these features to serve as predictors of online popularity. We examine both regression and classification algorithms and demonstrate that despite randomness in human behavior, it is possible to predict ranges of popularity on twitter with an overall 84 accuracy. Our study also serves to illustrate the differences between traditionally prominent sources and those immensely popular on the social web.
The cumulative response of readers to social media and online content has been studied using a variety of measurements, including: the volume of comments in response to blog posts @cite_2 and news articles @cite_6 @cite_20 , the number of Twitter shares of news articles @cite_17 , the number of reshares on Facebook @cite_12 and retweets on Twitter @cite_0 @cite_4 @cite_26 @cite_10 , and the difference in the number of reader up and down votes on posts and comments in Reddit discussion forums @cite_24 @cite_3 . An advantage of working with the Reddit data is that both positive and negative reactions are accounted for, so the total (karma in Reddit) is a reasonable proxy for community endorsement.