The expansion of residential demand response programs and increased deployment of controllable loads will require accurate appliance-level load modeling and forecasting. This paper proposes a conditional hidden semi-Markov model to describe the probabilistic nature of residential appliance demand, and an algorithm for short-term load forecasting. Model parameters are estimated directly from power consumption data using scalable statistical learning methods. Case studies performed using sub-metered 1-minute power consumption data from several types of appliances demonstrate the effectiveness of the model for load forecasting and anomaly detection.
@cite_5: The widespread adoption of demand response enabled appliances and thermostats can result in significant reduction to peak electrical demand and provide potential grid stabilization benefits. GE has developed a line of appliances that will have the capability of offering several levels of demand reduction actions based on information from the utility grid, often in the form of price. However due to a number of factors, including the number of demand response enabled appliances available at any given time, the reduction of diversity factor due to the synchronizing control signal, and the percentage of consumers who may override the utility signal, it can be difficult to predict the aggregate response of a large number of residences. The effects of these behaviors can be modeled and simulated in open-source software, GridLAB-D, including evaluation of appliance controls, improvement to current algorithms, and development of aggregate control methodologies. This report is the first in a series of three reports describing the potential of GE's demand response enabled appliances to provide benefits to the utility grid. The first report will describe the modeling methodology used to represent the GE appliances in the GridLAB-D simulation environment and the estimated potential for peak demand reduction at various deployment levels. The second and third reports will explore the potential of aggregated group actions to positively impact grid stability, including frequency and voltage regulation and spinning reserves, and the impacts on distribution feeder voltage regulation, including mitigation of fluctuations caused by high penetration of photovoltaic distributed generation and the effects on volt-var control schemes.
@cite_14: Abstract This paper presents foresee™, a user-centric home energy management system that can help optimize how a home operates to concurrently meet users’ needs, achieve energy efficiency and commensurate utility cost savings, and reliably deliver grid services based on utility signals. Foresee is built on a multiobjective model predictive control framework, wherein the objectives consist of energy cost, thermal comfort, user convenience, and carbon emission. Foresee learns user preferences on different objectives and acts on their behalf to operate building equipment, such as home appliances, photovoltaic systems, and battery storage. In this work, machine-learning algorithms were used to derive data-driven appliance models and usage patterns to predict the home’s future energy consumption. This approach enables highly accurate predictions of comfort needs, energy costs, environmental impacts, and grid service availability. Simulation studies were performed on field data from a residential building stock data set collected in the Pacific Northwest. Results indicated that foresee generated up to 7.6 whole-home energy savings without requiring substantial behavioral changes. When responding to demand response events, foresee was able to provide load forecasts upon receipt of event notifications and delivered the committed demand response services with 10 or fewer errors. Foresee fully utilized the potential of the battery storage and controllable building loads and delivered up to 7.0-kW load reduction and 13.5-kW load increase. These benefits are provided while maintaining the occupants’ thermal comfort or convenience in using their appliances.
@cite_17: Abstract Many of the popular building energy simulation programs around the world are reaching maturity — some use simulation methods (and even code) that originated in the 1960s. For more than two decades, the US government supported development of two hourly building energy simulation programs, BLAST and DOE-2. Designed in the days of mainframe computers, expanding their capabilities further has become difficult, time-consuming, and expensive. At the same time, the 30 years have seen significant advances in analysis and computational methods and power — providing an opportunity for significant improvement in these tools. In 1996, a US federal agency began developing a new building energy simulation tool, EnergyPlus, building on development experience with two existing programs: DOE-2 and BLAST. EnergyPlus includes a number of innovative simulation features — such as variable time steps, user-configurable modular systems that are integrated with a heat and mass balance-based zone simulation — and input and output data structures tailored to facilitate third party module and interface development. Other planned simulation capabilities include multizone airflow, and electric power and solar thermal and photovoltaic simulation. Beta testing of EnergyPlus began in late 1999 and the first release is scheduled for early 2001.
Approaches are generally either physics-based, statistical, or utilize a combination of both methods. Numerous detailed physics-based models derived from first principles have been developed and used for residential end-use simulation and control @cite_14 @cite_17 @cite_5 . However, the accuracy of physics-based models may suffer due to nonidealities and heterogeneity in appliance characteristics and consumer behavior.