Ranking algorithms play a crucial role in online platforms ranging from search engines to recommender systems. In this paper, we identify a surprising consequence of popularity-based rankings: the fewer the items reporting a given signal, the higher the share of the overall traffic they collectively attract. This few-get-richer effect emerges in settings where there are few distinct classes of items (e.g., left-leaning news sources versus right-leaning news sources), and items are ranked based on their popularity. We demonstrate analytically that the few-get-richer effect emerges when people tend to click on top-ranked items and have heterogeneous preferences for the classes of items. Using simulations, we analyze how the strength of the effect changes with assumptions about the setting and human behavior. We also test our predictions experimentally in an online experiment with human participants. Our findings have important implications to understand the spread of misinformation.
@cite_18: Search engine click logs provide an invaluable source of relevance information but this information is biased because we ignore which documents from the result list the users have actually seen before and after they clicked. Otherwise, we could estimate document relevance by simple counting. In this paper, we propose a set of assumptions on user browsing behavior that allows the estimation of the probability that a document is seen, thereby providing an unbiased estimate of document relevance. To train, test and compare our model to the best alternatives described in the Literature, we gather a large set of real data and proceed to an extensive cross-validation experiment. Our solution outperforms very significantly all previous models. As a side effect, we gain insight into the browsing behavior of users and we can compare it to the conclusions of an eye-tracking experiments by [12]. In particular, our findings confirm that a user almost always see the document directly after a clicked document. They also explain why documents situated just after a very relevant document are clicked more often.
@cite_4: The wide adoption of social media has increased the competition among ideas for our finite attention. We employ a parsimonious agent-based model to study whether such a competition may affect the popularity of different memes, the diversity of information we are exposed to, and the fading of our collective interests for specific topics. Agents share messages on a social network but can only pay attention to a portion of the information they receive. In the emerging dynamics of information diffusion, a few memes go viral while most do not. The predictions of our model are consistent with empirical data from Twitter, a popular microblogging platform. Surprisingly, we can explain the massive heterogeneity in the popularity and persistence of memes as deriving from a combination of the competition for our limited attention and the structure of the social network, without the need to assume different intrinsic values among ideas.
@cite_8: Search engine advertising has become a significant element of the Web browsing experience. Choosing the right ads for the query and the order in which they are displayed greatly affects the probability that a user will see and click on each ad. This ranking has a strong impact on the revenue the search engine receives from the ads. Further, showing the user an ad that they prefer to click on improves user satisfaction. For these reasons, it is important to be able to accurately estimate the click-through rate of ads in the system. For ads that have been displayed repeatedly, this is empirically measurable, but for new ads, other means must be used. We show that we can use features of ads, terms, and advertisers to learn a model that accurately predicts the click-though rate for new ads. We also show that using our model improves the convergence and performance of an advertising system. As a result, our model increases both revenue and user satisfaction.
@cite_29: Recent advances in search users' click modeling consider both users' search queries and click skip behavior on documents to infer the user's perceived relevance. Most of these models, including dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) and user browsing models (UBM), use probabilistic models to understand user click behavior based on individual queries. The user behavior is more complex when her actions to satisfy her information needs form a search session, which may include multiple queries and subsequent click behaviors on various items on search result pages. Previous research is limited to treating each query within a search session in isolation, without paying attention to their dynamic interactions with other queries in a search session. Investigating this problem, we consider the sequence of queries and their clicks in a search session as a task and propose a task-centric click model (TCM). TCM characterizes user behavior related to a task as a collective whole. Specifically, we identify and consider two new biases in TCM as the basis for user modeling. The first indicates that users tend to express their information needs incrementally in a task, and thus perform more clicks as their needs become clearer. The other illustrates that users tend to click fresh documents that are not included in the results of previous queries. Using these biases, TCM is more accurately able to capture user search behavior. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that by considering all the task information collectively, TCM can better interpret user click behavior and achieve significant improvements in terms of ranking metrics of NDCG and perplexity.
@cite_2: Search engines have become key media for our scientific, economic, and social activities by enabling people to access information on the web despite its size and complexity. On the down side, search engines bias the traffic of users according to their page ranking strategies, and it has been argued that they create a vicious cycle that amplifies the dominance of established and already popular sites. This bias could lead to a dangerous monopoly of information. We show that, contrary to intuition, empirical data do not support this conclusion; popular sites receive far less traffic than predicted. We discuss a model that accurately predicts traffic data patterns by taking into consideration the topical interests of users and their searching behavior in addition to the way search engines rank pages. The heterogeneity of user interests explains the observed mitigation of search engines’ popularity bias.
@cite_10: Ranking algorithms are the information gatekeepers of the Internet era. We develop a stylized framework to study the effects of ranking algorithms on opinion dynamics. We consider rankings that depend on popularity and on personalization. We find that popularity driven rankings can enhance asymptotic learning while personalized ones can both inhibit or enhance it, depending on whether individuals have common or private value preferences. We also find that ranking algorithms can contribute towards the diffusion of misinformation (e.g., “fake news”), since lower ex-ante accuracy of content of minority websites can actually increase their overall traffic share.
@cite_12: In a world with a tremendous amount of choices, ranking systems are becoming increasingly important in helping individuals to find information relevant to them. As such, rankings play a crucial role of influencing the attention that is devoted to the various alternatives. This role generates a feedback when the ranking is based on citations, as is the case for PageRank used by Google. The attention bias due to published rankings affects new stated opinions (citations), which will, in turn, affect the next ranking. The purpose of this paper is to investigate this feedback by studying some simple but reasonable dynamics. We show that the long run behavior of the process much depends on the preferences, in particular on their diversity, and on the used ranking method. Two main families of methods are investigated, one based on the notion of 'handicaps', the other one on the notion of peers' rankings.
@cite_11: As with any application of machine learning, web search ranking requires labeled data. The labels usually come in the form of relevance assessments made by editors. Click logs can also provide an important source of implicit feedback and can be used as a cheap proxy for editorial labels. The main difficulty however comes from the so called position bias - urls appearing in lower positions are less likely to be clicked even if they are relevant. In this paper, we propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network which aims at providing us with unbiased estimation of the relevance from the click logs. Experiments show that the proposed click model outperforms other existing click models in predicting both click-through rate and relevance.
An extensive literature on modeling (click) user behavior is weakly related to our work @cite_29 @cite_11 @cite_18 @cite_8 . Closer to our work, several papers have proposed models of the dynamics of interactions between individual searches and ranking algorithms, e.g., for understanding the feedback loop between ranking system and user queries @cite_12 , explaining the observed mitigation of search engines' popularity bias @cite_2 , or the competition of memes using limited attention @cite_4 . The paper closest to ours is @cite_10 , which also obtains a few-get-richer effect in a model where individuals get multiple signals and where (news) items are ranked via a probabilistic popularity-based ranking. Besides being simpler, our model works with a discrete and deterministic ranking of the websites rather than a continuous and probabilistic one. Among other things, this allows for a tighter connection with the experiment of .