Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing data problem where the diffusion bridges in between discrete-time observations are missing. The computational problem can then be dealt with using a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method known as data-augmentation. If unknown parameters appear in the diffusion coefficient, direct implementation of data-augmentation results in a Markov chain that is reducible. Furthermore, data-augmentation requires efficient sampling of diffusion bridges, which can be difficult, especially in the multidimensional case. We present a general framework to deal with with these problems that does not rely on discretisation. The construction generalises previous approaches and sheds light on the assumptions necessary to make these approaches work. We define a random-walk type Metropolis-Hastings sampler for updating diffusion bridges. Our methods are illustrated using guided proposals for sampling diffusion bridges. These are Markov processes obtained by adding a guiding term to the drift of the diffusion. We give general guidelines on the construction of these proposals and introduce a time change and scaling of the guided proposal that reduces discretisation error. Numerical examples demonstrate the performance of our methods.
@cite_19: The problem of formal likelihood-based (either classical or Bayesian) inference for discretely observed multidimensional diffusions is particularly challenging. In principle, this involves data augmentation of the observation data to give representations of the entire diffusion trajectory. Most currently proposed methodology splits broadly into two classes: either through the discretization of idealized approaches for the continuous-time diffusion setup or through the use of standard finite-dimensional methodologies discretization of the diffusion model. The connections between these approaches have not been well studied. This article provides a unified framework that brings together these approaches, demonstrating connections, and in some cases surprising differences. As a result, we provide, for the first time, theoretical justification for the various methods of imputing missing data. The inference problems are particularly challenging for irreducible diffusions, and our framework is correspondingly mo...
@cite_5: In this paper, we introduce a new Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian analysis of discretely observed diffusion processes. We treat the paths between any two data points as missing data. As such, we show that, because of full dependence between the missing paths and the volatility of the diffusion, the rate of convergence of basic algorithms can be arbitrarily slow if the amount of the augmentation is large. We offer a transformation of the diffusion which breaks down dependency between the transformed missing paths and the volatility of the diffusion. We then propose two efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to sample from the posterior-distribution of the transformed missing observations and the parameters of the diffusion. We apply our results to examples involving simulated data and also to Eurodollar short-rate data.
@cite_25: 
@cite_19 extend the reparametrisation of the diffusion bridges in @cite_5 (cf. section ) to reducible diffusions and otherwise decouple parameter and bridge by first discretising and then using the transformation formula in Euclidean coordinates for the discretised bridges. The use of the driving Brownian motion of the continuous time bridge proposal as innovation process was proposed by @cite_25 .