Due to the statistical complexity of video, the high degree of inherent stochasticity, and the sheer amount of data, generating natural video remains a challenging task. State-of-the-art video generation models attempt to address these issues by combining sometimes complex, often video-specific neural network architectures, latent variable models, adversarial training and a range of other methods. Despite their often high complexity, these approaches still fall short of generating high quality video continuations outside of narrow domains and often struggle with fidelity. In contrast, we show that conceptually simple, autoregressive video generation models based on a three-dimensional self-attention mechanism achieve highly competitive results across multiple metrics on popular benchmark datasets for which they produce continuations of high fidelity and realism. Furthermore, we find that our models are capable of producing diverse and surprisingly realistic continuations on a subset of videos from Kinetics, a large scale action recognition dataset comprised of YouTube videos exhibiting phenomena such as camera movement, complex object interactions and diverse human movement. To our knowledge, this is the first promising application of video-generation models to videos of this complexity.
@cite_37: In a traditional convolutional layer, the learned filters stay fixed after training. In contrast, we introduce a new framework, the Dynamic Filter Network, where filters are generated dynamically conditioned on an input. We show that this architecture is a powerful one, with increased flexibility thanks to its adaptive nature, yet without an excessive increase in the number of model parameters. A wide variety of filtering operations can be learned this way, including local spatial transformations, but also others like selective (de)blurring or adaptive feature extraction. Moreover, multiple such layers can be combined, e.g. in a recurrent architecture. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the dynamic filter network on the tasks of video and stereo prediction, and reach state-of-the-art performance on the moving MNIST dataset with a much smaller model. By visualizing the learned filters, we illustrate that the network has picked up flow information by only looking at unlabelled training data. This suggests that the network can be used to pretrain networks for various supervised tasks in an unsupervised way, like optical flow and depth estimation.
@cite_29: Anticipating actions and objects before they start or appear is a difficult problem in computer vision with several real-world applications. This task is challenging partly because it requires leveraging extensive knowledge of the world that is difficult to write down. We believe that a promising resource for efficiently learning this knowledge is through readily available unlabeled video. We present a framework that capitalizes on temporal structure in unlabeled video to learn to anticipate human actions and objects. The key idea behind our approach is that we can train deep networks to predict the visual representation of images in the future. Visual representations are a promising prediction target because they encode images at a higher semantic level than pixels yet are automatic to compute. We then apply recognition algorithms on our predicted representation to anticipate objects and actions. We experimentally validate this idea on two datasets, anticipating actions one second in the future and objects five seconds in the future.
@cite_9: Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.
@cite_1: Generative models that can model and predict sequences of future events can, in principle, learn to capture complex real-world phenomena, such as physical interactions. In particular, learning predictive models of videos offers an especially appealing mechanism to enable a rich understanding of the physical world: videos of real-world interactions are plentiful and readily available, and a model that can predict future video frames can not only capture useful representations of the world, but can be useful in its own right, for problems such as model-based robotic control. However, a central challenge in video prediction is that the future is highly uncertain: a sequence of past observations of events can imply many possible futures. Although a number of recent works have studied probabilistic models that can represent uncertain futures, such models are either extremely expensive computationally (as in the case of pixel-level autoregressive models), or do not directly optimize the likelihood of the data. In this work, we propose a model for video prediction based on normalizing flows, which allows for direct optimization of the data likelihood, and produces high-quality stochastic predictions. To our knowledge, our work is the first to propose multi-frame video prediction with normalizing flows. We describe an approach for modeling the latent space dynamics, and demonstrate that flow-based generative models offer a viable and competitive approach to generative modeling of video.
@cite_39: We capitalize on large amounts of unlabeled video in order to learn a model of scene dynamics for both video recognition tasks (e.g. action classification) and video generation tasks (e.g. future prediction). We propose a generative adversarial network for video with a spatio-temporal convolutional architecture that untangles the scene's foreground from the background. Experiments suggest this model can generate tiny videos up to a second at full frame rate better than simple baselines, and we show its utility at predicting plausible futures of static images. Moreover, experiments and visualizations show the model internally learns useful features for recognizing actions with minimal supervision, suggesting scene dynamics are a promising signal for representation learning. We believe generative video models can impact many applications in video understanding and simulation.
@cite_27: The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting.
@cite_23: Predicting the future in real-world settings, particularly from raw sensory observations such as images, is exceptionally challenging. Real-world events can be stochastic and unpredictable, and the high dimensionality and complexity of natural images requires the predictive model to build an intricate understanding of the natural world. Many existing methods tackle this problem by making simplifying assumptions about the environment. One common assumption is that the outcome is deterministic and there is only one plausible future. This can lead to low-quality predictions in real-world settings with stochastic dynamics. In this paper, we develop a stochastic variational video prediction (SV2P) method that predicts a different possible future for each sample of its latent variables. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first to provide effective stochastic multi-frame prediction for real-world video. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in predicting detailed future frames of videos on multiple real-world datasets, both action-free and action-conditioned. We find that our proposed method produces substantially improved video predictions when compared to the same model without stochasticity, and to other stochastic video prediction methods. Our SV2P implementation will be open sourced upon publication.
@cite_2: 
@cite_16: Predicting future frames for a video sequence is a challenging generative modeling task. Promising approaches include probabilistic latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder. While VAEs can handle uncertainty and model multiple possible future outcomes, they have a tendency to produce blurry predictions. In this work we argue that this is a sign of underfitting. To address this issue, we propose to increase the expressiveness of the latent distributions and to use higher capacity likelihood models. Our approach relies on a hierarchy of latent variables, which defines a family of flexible prior and posterior distributions in order to better model the probability of future sequences. We validate our proposal through a series of ablation experiments and compare our approach to current state-of-the-art latent variable models. Our method performs favorably under several metrics in three different datasets.
@cite_25: We use multilayer Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to learn representations of video sequences. Our model uses an encoder LSTM to map an input sequence into a fixed length representation. This representation is decoded using single or multiple decoder LSTMs to perform different tasks, such as reconstructing the input sequence, or predicting the future sequence. We experiment with two kinds of input sequences - patches of image pixels and high-level representations ("percepts") of video frames extracted using a pretrained convolutional net. We explore different design choices such as whether the decoder LSTMs should condition on the generated output. We analyze the outputs of the model qualitatively to see how well the model can extrapolate the learned video representation into the future and into the past. We try to visualize and interpret the learned features. We stress test the model by running it on longer time scales and on out-of-domain data. We further evaluate the representations by finetuning them for a supervised learning problem - human action recognition on the UCF-101 and HMDB-51 datasets. We show that the representations help improve classification accuracy, especially when there are only a few training examples. Even models pretrained on unrelated datasets (300 hours of YouTube videos) can help action recognition performance.
@cite_12: Abstract: Learning to predict future images from a video sequence involves the construction of an internal representation that models the image evolution accurately, and therefore, to some degree, its content and dynamics. This is why pixel-space video prediction may be viewed as a promising avenue for unsupervised feature learning. In addition, while optical flow has been a very studied problem in computer vision for a long time, future frame prediction is rarely approached. Still, many vision applications could benefit from the knowledge of the next frames of videos, that does not require the complexity of tracking every pixel trajectories. In this work, we train a convolutional network to generate future frames given an input sequence. To deal with the inherently blurry predictions obtained from the standard Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss function, we propose three different and complementary feature learning strategies: a multi-scale architecture, an adversarial training method, and an image gradient difference loss function. We compare our predictions to different published results based on recurrent neural networks on the UCF101 dataset
@cite_17: We address the problem of synthesizing new video frames in an existing video, either in-between existing frames (interpolation), or subsequent to them (extrapolation). This problem is challenging because video appearance and motion can be highly complex. Traditional optical-flow-based solutions often fail where flow estimation is challenging, while newer neural-network-based methods that hallucinate pixel values directly often produce blurry results. We combine the advantages of these two methods by training a deep network that learns to synthesize video frames by flowing pixel values from existing ones, which we call deep voxel flow. Our method requires no human supervision, and any video can be used as training data by dropping, and then learning to predict, existing frames. The technique is efficient, and can be applied at any video resolution. We demonstrate that our method produces results that both quantitatively and qualitatively improve upon the state-of-the-art.
Earlier work on video generation mostly focused on deterministic approaches @cite_25 @cite_29 @cite_27 @cite_17 @cite_37 , which fail to capture the high degree of stochasticity inherent in video. In response, a popular research direction has been that of generative latent-variable video models. In contrast to pixel-level autoregressive models, these posit an underlying latent process in tandem with the observed pixel values. Work in this category include variants of variational autoencoders @cite_23 @cite_2 . To tackle the issues inherent in these models, most notably the tendency to generate blurry outputs due to restricted modeling power, inadequate prior distributions, or optimization of a lower bound in place of the true likelihood, these have been combined with adversarial objectives @cite_12 @cite_39 @cite_9 , hierarchical latent-variables @cite_16 , or flow-based modeling @cite_1 . These approaches have the benefit that they admit fast generation, but are restricted in that they tend to only focus on a subset of the modes in the empirical distribution in the adversarial case, or that they struggle with limited modeling power even when using a large number of layers in the case of flow-based models.