The ability to obtain accurate food security metrics in developing areas where relevant data can be sparse is critically important for policy makers tasked with implementing food aid programs. As a result, a great deal of work has been dedicated to predicting important food security metrics such as annual crop yields using a variety of methods including simulation, remote sensing, weather models, and human expert input. As a complement to existing techniques in crop yield prediction, this work develops neural network models for predicting the sentiment of Twitter feeds from farming communities. Specifically, we investigate the potential of both direct learning on a small dataset of agriculturally-relevant tweets and transfer learning from larger, well-labeled sentiment datasets from other domains (e.g. politics) to accurately predict agricultural sentiment, which we hope would ultimately serve as a useful crop yield predictor. We find that direct learning from small, relevant datasets outperforms transfer learning from large, fully-labeled datasets, that convolutional neural networks broadly outperform recurrent neural networks on Twitter sentiment classification, and that these models perform substantially less well on ternary sentiment problems characteristic of practical settings than on binary problems often found in the literature.
@cite_8: We report on a series of experiments with convolutional neural networks (CNN) trained on top of pre-trained word vectors for sentence-level classification tasks. We show that a simple CNN with little hyperparameter tuning and static vectors achieves excellent results on multiple benchmarks. Learning task-specific vectors through fine-tuning offers further gains in performance. We additionally propose a simple modification to the architecture to allow for the use of both task-specific and static vectors. The CNN models discussed herein improve upon the state of the art on 4 out of 7 tasks, which include sentiment analysis and question classification.
Yoon Kim @cite_8 adapts CNNs for sentence classification on a variety of tasks (i.e. sentiment analysis, question type). This work suggests that a single layer CNN is comparable to or performs marginally better than state-of-the-art models for each of the tasks considered. Given the success of the models described here, we propose using variants of GRU and LSTM (e.g. single cell, bi-directional, multi-layer) models in addition to CNN-based architectures to assess the ability of both direct learning and transfer learning to predict agricultural sentiment that would help to accurately predict crop yield.