title: Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the 2020 National Reform Programme of the Netherlands and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of the Netherlands 2020/C 282/19

text:
               26.8.2020

               EN

               Official Journal of the European Union

               C 282/122

      COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
      of 20 July 2020
      on the 2020 National Reform Programme of the Netherlands and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of the Netherlands
      (2020/C 282/19)
      THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
      Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and in particular Articles 121(2) and 148(4) thereof,
      Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies (1), and in particular Article 5(2) thereof,
      Having regard to Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances (2), and in particular Article 6(1) thereof,
      Having regard to the recommendation of the European Commission,
      Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,
      Having regard to the conclusions of the European Council,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Employment Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Social Protection Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Economic Policy Committee,
      Whereas:

                  (1)

                  On 17 December 2019, the Commission adopted the Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, marking the start of the 2020 European Semester for economic policy coordination. It took due account of the European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on 17 November 2017. On 17 December 2019, on the basis of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011, the Commission also adopted the Alert Mechanism Report, in which it identified the Netherlands as one of the Member States for which an in-depth review would be carried out. On the same date, the Commission also adopted a recommendation for a Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area.

                  (2)

                  The 2020 country report for the Netherlands was published on 26 February 2020. It assessed the Netherlands’ progress in addressing the country-specific recommendations adopted by the Council on 9 July 2019 (3) (‘the 2019 country-specific recommendations’), the follow-up given to the country-specific recommendations adopted in previous years and the Netherlands’ progress towards its national Europe 2020 targets. It also included an in-depth review under Article 5 of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011, the results of which were also published on 26 February 2020. The Commission’s analysis led it to conclude that the Netherlands is experiencing macroeconomic imbalances. In particular, the high stock of private debt and the large current account surplus are sources of imbalances and have cross-border relevance.

                  (3)

                  On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. It is a severe public health emergency for citizens, societies and economies. It is putting national health systems under severe strain, disrupting global supply chains, causing volatility in financial markets, triggering consumer demand shocks and having negative effects across various sectors. It is threatening people’s jobs and incomes as well as companies’ business. It has delivered a major economic shock that is already having serious repercussions in the Union. On 13 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication calling for a coordinated economic response to the crisis, involving all actors at national and Union level.

                  (4)

                  Several Member States have declared a state of emergency or introduced emergency measures. Any emergency measures should be strictly proportionate, necessary, limited in time, and in line with European and international standards. They should be subject to democratic oversight and independent judicial review.

                  (5)

                  On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication on the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact. The general escape clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 (4), facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. In its communication of 20 March 2020, the Commission considered that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the conditions for the activation of the general escape clause had been met and asked the Council to endorse this conclusion. On 23 March 2020, the ministers of finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. They agreed that the severe economic downturn requires a resolute, ambitious and coordinated response. The activation of the general escape clause allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective, provided that this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. For the corrective arm, the Council may also decide, on a recommendation from the Commission, to adopt a revised fiscal trajectory. The general escape clause does not suspend the procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact. It allows Member States to depart from the budgetary requirements that would normally apply while enabling the Commission and the Council to undertake the necessary policy coordination measures within the framework of the Pact.

                  (6)

                  Continued action is required to limit and control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, strengthen the resilience of the national health systems, mitigate the socioeconomic consequences of the pandemic through supportive measures for business and households, and ensure adequate health and safety conditions at the workplace with a view to resuming economic activity. The Union should fully use the various tools at its disposal to support Member States’ efforts in those areas. In parallel, Member States and the Union should work together to prepare the measures necessary to bring about a return to the normal functioning of our societies and economies and to sustainable growth, integrating, inter alia, the green transition and the digital transformation, and drawing lessons from the crisis.

                  (7)

                  The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the flexibility that the internal market offers to adapt to extraordinary situations. However, in order to ensure a swift and smooth transition to the recovery phase and the free movement of goods, services and workers, exceptional measures that prevent the internal market from functioning normally should be removed as soon as they are no longer indispensable. The current crisis has shown the need for crisis preparedness plans in the health sector. Improved purchasing strategies, diversified supply chains and strategic reserves of essential supplies are among the key elements for developing broader crisis preparedness plans.

                  (8)

                  The Union legislator has already amended the relevant legislative frameworks by means of Regulations (EU) 2020/460 (5) and (EU) 2020/558 (6) of the European Parliament and of the Council to allow Member States to mobilise all unused resources from the European Structural and Investment Funds so they can address the exceptional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those amendments will provide additional flexibility, as well as simplified and streamlined procedures. To alleviate cash-flow pressures, Member States can also benefit from a 100 % co-financing rate from the Union budget in the 2020-2021 accounting year. the Netherlands is encouraged to make full use of those possibilities to help the individuals and sectors most affected.

                  (9)

                  The Netherlands submitted its 2020 National Reform Programme on 28 April 2020 and its 2020 Stability Programme on 29 April 2020. In order to take account of their interlinkages, the two programmes have been assessed at the same time.

                  (10)

                  The Netherlands is currently in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact and subject to the debt rule.

                  (11)

                  In its 2020 Stability Programme, the government plans the headline balance to deteriorate from a surplus of 1,7 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to a surplus of 0,1 % of GDP in 2020. The surplus is projected to decline to 0,0 % of GDP in 2023. After decreasing to 48,6 % of GDP in 2019, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decrease further to 46,3 % in 2020 according to the 2020 Stability Programme. However, the macroeconomic scenario underpinning those budgetary projections no longer appears realistic and the 2020 Stability Programme does not take into account a significant number of the measures announced by the Netherlands in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Spring Budget Memorandum (7) contains an update of the budgetary projections. Based on the Spring Budget Memorandum, the government headline balance is planned to deteriorate to a deficit of 11,8 % of GDP in 2020 and the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to 65,2 % in 2020. The macroeconomic and fiscal outlook is affected by high uncertainty because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

                  (12)

                  In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and as part of a coordinated Union approach, the Netherlands has adopted timely budgetary measures to increase the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic, and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. According to the 2020 Stability Programme and the Spring Budget Memorandum, those budgetary measures amount to 2,7 % of GDP. The measures include strengthening healthcare services, emergency aid for distressed sectors, income support to self-employed and employees. In addition, the Netherlands has announced measures that, while not having a direct budgetary impact, will contribute to providing liquidity support to businesses. Those measures include tax deferrals for corporate income taxes (4,6 % to 5,9 % of GDP) and loan guarantees (1,8 % of GDP). Overall, the measures taken by the Netherlands are in line with the guidelines set out in the Commission communication of 13 March 2020. The full implementation of the emergency measures and of supportive fiscal measures, followed by a refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions when economic conditions allow, will contribute to preserving fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

                  (13)

                  Based on the Commission 2020 spring forecast under unchanged policies, the Netherlands’ general government budget balance is forecast at -6,3 % of GDP in 2020 and -3,5 % of GDP in 2021. The difference of 5,5 percentage points between the Spring Budget Memorandum forecast and that of the Commission is driven by a different accounting of the tax deferrals (4,6 % to 5,9 % of GDP), which in the Commission 2020 spring forecast are not booked as revenue-decreasing in 2020. General government debt is projected to reach 62,1 % of GDP in 2020 and 57,6 % in 2021.

                  (14)

                  On 20 May 2020, the Commission issued a report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty because of the Netherlands’ projected breach of the 3 %-of-GDP deficit threshold in 2020. Overall, the Commission’s analysis suggests that the deficit criterion as defined in the Treaty and in Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 has not been fulfilled.

                  (15)

                  After robust growth in recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic has put an abrupt end to six consecutive years of economic expansion in the Netherlands. This year, the Dutch economy is set to experience its sharpest contraction in the country’s post-war history. All demand components, except public consumption, are expected to decline sharply this year, with a projected trough in economic activity in the second quarter. In 2021, the economy will likely rebound at a rate well above trend growth, reflecting a gradual normalisation of economic activity and the recovery of domestic demand and global trade from a depressed level. However activity levels are expected to remain below those of 2019. According to the Commission 2020 spring forecast, unemployment is expected to increase to 5,9 % in 2020, mainly due to mandated business closures and the abrupt overall decline in economic activity, but then to decrease to 5,3 % in 2021. Employment protection measures, in particular the Temporary Emergency Bridging Measure for Sustained Employment and additional income support for the self-employed, should help dampen employment losses. Nevertheless, the deterioration of the labour market is expected to accelerate in the coming months as firms in heavily affected sectors inevitably shed labour, especially workers with flexible and temporary contracts.

                  (16)

                  In response to the abrupt economic fallout and the evaporation of demand in specific sectors, the government has adopted a comprehensive package of emergency measures to help avoid structural damage to the economy. This strong policy response is aimed at the areas most affected by the COVID-19 crisis and focuses on employment protection and household purchasing power, direct financial compensation for severely hit industries, as well as tax deferral and loan guarantees to support the flow of credit to the private sector. It should thus prevent temporary liquidity problems from morphing into insolvency issues. Furthermore, automatic stabilisers should help dampen the depth of the downturn. The Central Bank has also reduced systemic capital buffers for the largest banks and is postponing a measure to introduce a risk weight floor for mortgages, thus freeing up bank capital and enabling banks to significantly expand lending to households and businesses.

                  (17)

                  The health system is performing comparatively well in terms of contributing to the overall health of the population and ensuring the accessibility of health services. As part of the immediate response to the COVID-19 crisis, the Netherlands put in place a control strategy involving general public health measures and adopted tailored health financing measures. Nevertheless, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has tested the resilience of the health system. In this regard pre-existing concerns have come to the fore. The capacity of the workforce would benefit from tackling existing shortages, in particular of nurses and in primary healthcare. The overall governance of the health systems and their capacity to ensure integrated service delivery across the care continuum could be improved by further strengthening data governance and scaling up the deployment of e-health tools. The COVID-19 pandemic has therefore highlighted the need to continue to improve the resilience and the crisis preparedness of the health system by addressing such structural challenges.

                  (18)

                  While in 2019 and in early 2020 the labour market continued to improve and performed well overall, the COVID-19 crisis has reduced economic growth and is expected to lead to a considerable increase in unemployment. A series of unprecedented economic measures were taken to protect people’s jobs and livelihoods and to minimise the impact on self-employed people, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and major companies. To preserve employment, employers expecting to lose at least 20 % of their revenue due to the COVID-19 crisis, can apply for an allowance (up to 90 % of the company’s wage bill, depending on the loss of turnover) that enables them to pay their employees’ wages for a period of three months, which has been extended further by four months. The self-employed will have recourse to an expedited procedure allowing them to apply for additional income support up to the amount of the social minimum, which will help them cover the costs of livelihood for a period of three months, which has also been extended by four months.

                  (19)

                  Mitigating the employment and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis for those hardest hit should be part of the recovery strategy. Despite the package of measures taken to preserve employment, people in a less favourable labour market position and/or vulnerable social situation have been hit harder. Unemployment increased, in particular for people working on flexible contracts, such as the young, temporary agency workers and people with migrant background. The COVID-19 crisis also highlighted significant challenges in terms of access to adequate social protection for the self-employed that are more often underinsured (or not insured at all) against sickness, disability, unemployment and old age.

                  (20)

                  Liquidity support to businesses through loans and guarantees, with a focus on SMEs, has been of utmost importance. The distribution of liquidity support to firms must be effectively and swiftly implemented by intermediaries while sustaining their resilience. Allowing the deferred payments of taxes and social contributions and speeding up contractual payments by public authorities can further help improve the cash-flow of SMEs. Newly-founded start-ups and scale-ups may need specific support, e.g. in the form of equity stakes by public institutions and incentives for venture capital funds to increase their investments in these firms. This may help avoid fire sales of strategically important European firms. As allowed and within the conditions set out in the Temporary Framework for State aid measures to support the economy in the current COVID-19 outbreak (8), equity or quasi-equity support should be ensured for all undertakings (9) and not only for those who meet the Commission’s definition of SMEs. Efforts should also be maintained to offer access and efficient digital public services for individuals and businesses.

                  (21)

                  To foster the economic recovery, it will be important to front-load mature public investment projects and promote private investment, including through relevant reforms. Targeted policy action, including investment in sectors with the strongest prospects to raise potential growth for the wider economy, can help to tackle the challenges accelerated by the recent COVID-19 crisis. In particular, investments in R & D embedded in the mission-driven top sectors and innovation policy (10) as well as human capital can help support long-term productivity growth and maintain a strong innovation capacity. This is especially the case for start-ups, scale-ups and innovative SMEs, which are crucial to enhance competitiveness and job creation. Investment in initiatives from the Netherlands’ Climate Agreement and National Energy and Climate Plan to address climate change and promote the energy transition can make a key contribution to wider societal goals, including the need to ensure sustainable and resource-efficient economic growth. Finally, investment in new housing is needed to alleviate the current housing shortage. The programming of the Just Transition Fund, which is the subject of a Commission proposal, for the period 2021-2027 could help the Netherlands to address some of the challenges posed by the transition to a climate-neutral economy, in particular in the territories covered by Annex D to the 2020 country report. This would allow the Netherlands to make the best use of that Fund.

                  (22)

                  Technical and digital skills and qualified professionals are crucial for the Dutch economy’s capacity to innovate and for sustainable and inclusive productivity growth. Investment in basic and/or digital skills, education and training, including upskilling and reskilling opportunities for all, also remains crucial to improving access to the labour market in particular to strengthen the employability of those at the margins of the labour market (including people with a migrant background and people with disabilities), while fostering equal opportunities and active inclusion.

                  (23)

                  Although the Netherlands has taken steps to address aggressive tax planning practices by implementing previously agreed international and European initiatives, the high level of dividend, royalty and interest payments made via the Netherlands suggests that the country’s tax rules are used by companies that engage in aggressive tax planning. A large proportion of the foreign direct investment stock is held by special purpose entities. The absence of withholding taxes on outbound (i.e. from Union residents to third country residents) royalties and interest payments may lead to those payments escaping tax altogether, if they are also not subject to tax in the recipient jurisdiction. The newly adopted reform on conditional withholding taxes on royalty, and interest payments in case of abuse or payments to low-tax jurisdictions or jurisdictions listed on the Union list of non cooperative jurisdictions, which will be implemented as of 1 January 2021, is a positive step towards decreasing aggressive tax planning. The effectiveness of the reform should be monitored closely.

                  (24)

                  A number of Dutch financial institutions have recently been involved in money laundering affairs. These cases highlight the need, despite recent efforts, to further strengthen the supervision of financial institutions and to investigate and prosecute money laundering cases. Outside the financial sector, the openness of the Dutch economy to foreign direct investments and the country’s complex legal structures also pose significant money laundering risks. The misalignment between the low reporting of unusual transactions by trust and company service providers and tax advisers and their high risk exposure calls for commensurate supervision. Given the extensive presence of complex legal structures, the well-functioning of the beneficial ownership register is key to avoiding the misuse of such entities, but the register has not been set up yet.

                  (25)

                  While the country-specific recommendations set out in this Recommendation (‘the 2020 country-specific recommendations’) focus on tackling the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and facilitating the economic recovery, the 2019 country-specific recommendations also covered reforms that are essential to address medium- to long-term structural challenges. The 2019 country-specific recommendations remain pertinent and will continue to be monitored throughout next year’s European Semester. That includes the 2019 country-specific recommendations regarding investment-related economic policies. All of the 2019 country-specific recommendations should be taken into account for the strategic programming of post-2020 cohesion policy funding, including for mitigating measures and exit strategies with regard to the current crisis.

                  (26)

                  The European Semester provides the framework for continuous economic and employment policy coordination in the Union, which can contribute to a sustainable economy. In their 2020 National Reform Programmes, Member States have taken stock of progress made in the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By ensuring the full implementation of the 2020 country-specific recommendations, the Netherlands will contribute to the progress towards the SDGs and to the common effort of ensuring competitive sustainability in the Union.

                  (27)

                  Close coordination between economies in the economic and monetary union is key in achieving a swift recovery from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a Member State whose currency is the euro, the Netherlands should ensure that its policies remain consistent with the 2020 euro-area recommendations and coordinated with those of the other Member States whose currency is the euro, while taking into account political guidance from the Eurogroup.

                  (28)

                  In the context of the 2020 European Semester, the Commission has carried out a comprehensive analysis of the Netherlands economic policy and published it in the 2020 country report. It has also assessed the 2020 Stability Programme, the 2020 National Reform Programme and the follow-up given to the country-specific recommendations addressed to the Netherlands in previous years. The Commission has taken into account not only their relevance for sustainable fiscal and socioeconomic policy in the Netherlands, but also their compliance with Union rules and guidance, given the need to strengthen the Union’s overall economic governance by providing Union-level input into future national decisions.

                  (29)

                  In the light of this assessment, the Council has examined the 2020 Stability Programme and its opinion (11) is reflected in particular in recommendation (1) below.

                  (30)

                  In the light of the Commission’s in-depth review and this assessment, the Council has examined the 2020 National Reform Programme and the 2020 Stability Programme. The 2020 country-specific recommendations take into account the need to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and facilitate the economic recovery as a necessary first step to allow for an adjustment of imbalances. The 2020 country-specific recommendations directly addressing the macroeconomic imbalances identified by the Commission under Article 6 of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 are reflected in recommendation (3),

            HEREBY RECOMMENDS that the Netherlands take action in 2020 and 2021 to:

                  1.

                  Take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, to effectively address the COVID-19 pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. When economic conditions allow, pursue fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Strengthen the resilience of the health system, including by tackling the existing shortages of health workers and stepping up the deployment of relevant e-health tools.

                  2.

                  Mitigate the employment and social impact of the COVID-19 crisis and promote adequate social protection for the self-employed.

                  3.

                  Front-load mature public investment projects and promote private investment to foster the economic recovery. Focus investment on the green and digital transition, in particular on digital skills development, sustainable infrastructure and clean and efficient production and use of energy as well as mission-oriented research and innovation.

                  4.

                  Take steps to fully address features of the tax system that facilitate aggressive tax planning in particular on outbound payments, in particular by implementing the adopted measures and ensuring its effectiveness. Ensure effective supervision and enforcement of the anti-money-laundering framework.

         Done at Brussels, 20 July 2020.

               For the Council

               The President

            J. KLOECKNER

         (1)  OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

         (2)  OJ L 306, 23.11.2011, p. 25.

         (3)  OJ C 301, 5.9.2019, p. 112.

         (4)  Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure (OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 6).

         (5)  Regulation (EU) 2020/460 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 March 2020 amending Regulations (EU) No 1301/2013, (EU) No 1303/2013 and (EU) No 508/2014 as regards specific measures to mobilise investments in the healthcare systems of Member States and in other sectors of their economies in response to the COVID-19 outbreak (Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative) (OJ L 99, 31.3.2020, p. 5).

         (6)  Regulation (EU) 2020/558 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2020 amending Regulations (EU) No 1301/2013 and (EU) No 1303/2013 as regards specific measures to provide exceptional flexibility for the use of the European Structural and Investments Funds in response to the COVID-19 outbreak (OJ L 130, 24.4.2020, p. 1).

         (7)  Budget Memorandum 2020 (Voorjaarsnota 2020), handed in for review to the 2nd Chamber by W. Hoekstra, Minister of Finance, on 25 April 2020.

         (8)  OJ C 91I, 20.3.2020, p. 1.

         (9)  Including for start-ups and scale-ups with competitive business models but whose cash-flows are negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

         (10)  This new policy approach aims to further boost investment in R & D in order to achieve the long-term targets on key societal challenges grouped into four ‘missions’: (i) energy transition and sustainability; (ii) agriculture, water and food; (iii) health and care; and (iv) security. The policy is viewed as a key priority for strengthening competitiveness and addressing societal challenges (Ministry for Economic Affairs (EZK) (2018), Kamerbrief: Naar Missiegedreven Innovatiebeleid met Impact, Rijksoverheid, The Hague.)

         (11)  Under Article 5(2) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.


title: Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Austria and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Austria 2020/C 282/20

text:
               26.8.2020

               EN

               Official Journal of the European Union

               C 282/129

      COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
      of 20 July 2020
      on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Austria and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Austria
      (2020/C 282/20)
      THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
      Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and in particular Articles 121(2) and 148(4) thereof,
      Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies (1), and in particular Article 5(2) thereof,
      Having regard to the recommendation of the European Commission,
      Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,
      Having regard to the conclusions of the European Council,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Employment Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Social Protection Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Economic Policy Committee,
      Whereas:

                  (1)

                  On 17 December 2019, the Commission adopted the Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, marking the start of the 2020 European Semester for economic policy coordination. It took due account of the European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on 17 November 2017. On 17 December 2019, on the basis of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council (2), the Commission also adopted the Alert Mechanism Report, in which it did not identify Austria as one of the Member States for which an in-depth review would be carried out. On the same date, the Commission also adopted a recommendation for a Council recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area.

                  (2)

                  The 2020 country report for Austria was published on 26 February 2020. It assessed Austria’s progress in addressing the country-specific recommendations adopted by the Council on 9 July 2019 (3) (‘the 2019 country-specific recommendations’), the follow-up given to the country-specific recommendations adopted in previous years and Austria’s progress towards its national Europe 2020 targets.

                  (3)

                  On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. It is a severe public health emergency for citizens, societies and economies. It is putting national health systems under severe strain, disrupting global supply chains, causing volatility in financial markets, triggering consumer demand shocks and having negative effects across various sectors. It is threatening people’s jobs and incomes as well as companies’ business. It has delivered a major economic shock that is already having serious repercussions in the Union. On 13 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication calling for a coordinated economic response to the crisis, involving all actors at national and Union level.

                  (4)

                  Several Member States have declared a state of emergency or introduced emergency measures. Any emergency measures should be strictly proportionate, necessary, limited in time, and in line with European and international standards. They should be subject to democratic oversight and independent judicial review.

                  (5)

                  On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication on the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact. The general escape clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 (4), facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. In its communication of 20 March 2020, the Commission considered that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the conditions for the activation of the general escape clause had been met and asked the Council to endorse this conclusion. On 23 March 2020, the ministers of finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. They agreed that the severe economic downturn requires a resolute, ambitious and coordinated response. The activation of the general escape clause allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective, provided that this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. For the corrective arm, the Council may also decide, on a recommendation from the Commission, to adopt a revised fiscal trajectory. The general escape clause does not suspend the procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact. It allows Member States to depart from the budgetary requirements that would normally apply while enabling the Commission and the Council to undertake the necessary policy coordination measures within the framework of the Pact.

                  (6)

                  Continued action is required to limit and control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, strengthen the resilience of the national health systems, mitigate the socioeconomic consequences of the pandemic through supportive measures for business and households, and ensure adequate health and safety conditions at the workplace with a view to resuming economic activity. The Union should fully use the various tools at its disposal to support Member States’ efforts in those areas. In parallel, Member States and the Union should work together to prepare the measures necessary to bring about a return to the normal functioning of our societies and economies and to sustainable growth, integrating, inter alia, the green transition and the digital transformation, and drawing lessons from the crisis.

                  (7)

                  The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the flexibility that the internal market offers to adapt to extraordinary situations. However, in order to ensure a swift and smooth transition to the recovery phase and the free movement of goods, services and workers, exceptional measures that prevent the internal market from functioning normally should be removed as soon as they are no longer indispensable. The current crisis has shown the need for strong crisis preparedness plans in the health sector in particular.Improved purchasing strategies, diversified supply chains and strategic reserves of essential supplies are among the key elements for developing broader crisis preparedness plans.

                  (8)

                  The Union legislator has already amended the relevant legislative frameworks by means of Regulations (EU) 2020/460 (5) and (EU) 2020/558 (6) of the European Parliament and of the Council to allow Member States to mobilise all unused resources from the European Structural and Investment Funds so they can address the exceptional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those amendments will provide additional flexibility, as well as simplified and streamlined procedures. To alleviate cash-flow pressures, Member States can also benefit from a 100 % co-financing rate from the Union budget in the 2020-2021 accounting year. Austria is encouraged to make full use of those possibilities to help the individuals and sectors most affected.

                  (9)

                  The socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be unevenly distributed across regions due to different specialisation patterns in particular in regions markedly relying on tourism. This entails the risk of widening regional disparities within Austria. Combined with the risk of a temporary unravelling of the convergence process between Member States, the current situation calls for targeted policy responses.

                  (10)

                  Austria submitted its 2020 National Reform Programme on 14 April 2020 and its 2020 Stability Programme on 30 April 2020. In order to take account of their interlinkages, the two programmes have been assessed at the same time.

                  (11)

                  Austria is currently in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact and subject to the debt rule.

                  (12)

                  In its technical update to the 2020 Stability Programme, the government plans the headline balance to deteriorate from a surplus of 0,7 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to a deficit of 8,0 % of GDP in 2020. The deficit is projected to decline to 1,9 % of GDP in 2021. After decreasing to 70,4 % of GDP in 2019, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to 81,4 % in 2020 according to the 2020 Stability Programme. The macroeconomic and fiscal outlook is affected by high uncertainty because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

                  (13)

                  In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and as part of a coordinated Union approach, Austria has adopted timely budgetary measures to increase the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic, and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. According to the 2020 Stability Programme, those budgetary measures amounted to 5,0 % of GDP. The measures include strengthening healthcare services, emergency aid for distressed companies and short-time work arrangements. In addition, Austria has announced measures that, while not having a direct budgetary impact, will contribute to providing liquidity support to businesses, which the 2020 Stability Programme estimates at 5,0 % of GDP. Those measures include tax deferrals for personal and corporate income taxes (2,6 % of GDP) and loan guarantees (2,4 % of GDP). Overall, the measures taken by Austria are in line with the guidelines set out in the Commission communication of 13 March 2020. The full implementation of the emergency measures and of supportive fiscal measures, followed by a refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions when economic conditions allow, will contribute to preserving fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

                  (14)

                  Based on the Commission 2020 spring forecast under unchanged policies, Austria’s general government balance is forecast at -6,1 % of GDP in 2020 and -1,9 % of GDP in 2021. The general government debt ratio is projected to reach 78,8 % of GDP in 2020 and 75,8 % of GDP in 2021.

                  (15)

                  On 20 May 2020, the Commission issued a report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty because of Austria’s planned breach of the 3 %-of-GDP deficit threshold in 2020. Overall, the Commission’s analysis suggests that the deficit criterion as defined in the Treaty and in Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 has not been fulfilled.

                  (16)

                  The Austrian government has taken unprecedented measures to control the spread of COVID-19. It has introduced strict quarantine and social distancing rules and made substantial funds available for the health system to purchase equipment and supplies, reinforce laboratory capacity, and strengthen staffing capability. Primary healthcare has come under exceptional pressure from an unprecedented increase in the need for teleconsultations, medical appointments and requests for home visits. The rapid COVID-19 outbreak has strongly affected Austria’s economy. National and international containment measures against the virus have hit both the demand and supply side, leading to a broad-based downturn. GDP is therefore projected to contract by 5,5 % in 2020, more than during the economic and financial crisis in 2008-2009. Given the relatively rapid fall in new infections, Austria was one of the first Member States to announce a relaxation of containment measures beginning in mid-April. To avoid long-lasting economic damage and to cushion the employment and social impacts of the crisis, the government has adopted a comprehensive package of measures to support the Austrian economy (approximately 10 % of GDP). The package includes a short-time work scheme (Kurzarbeit), where working hours can be reduced by up to 90 % on average over a given period and employers are reimbursed 80 % to 90 % of the employee’s last net income, dependent on last gross income. The comprehensive set of measures for businesses and self-employed aims to prevent temporarily liquidity problems and provides direct support especially to hard-hit enterprises and industries with a particular focus on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These include transfers, liquidity support through loans, guarantees, equity injections and tax deferrals. In the process of designing and implementing these measures the resilience of the banking sector needs to be taken into account.

                  (17)

                  The Austrian health system has so far dealt successfully with the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanding primary and ambulatory care services with a focus on health promotion and disease prevention would help to further improve population health. While maintaining high quality standards, cost efficiency could be increased by more effective public procurement and generic medicines. Also, Austria’s long-term care system faces structural and fiscal challenges, which have so far not been thoroughly addressed. The system delivers comparatively high-quality services, but faces staffing challenges, which become even more perceptible and evident in the current crisis. The long-term care sector relies strongly on care provided by workers from other Member States, pointing to the need to secure free flow of cross-border workers. In addition, adequate remuneration could help to make the job of nursing staff more attractive.

                  (18)

                  Tax policy is playing an important role in supporting households and businesses during the COVID-19 containment and will be key in fostering economic recovery in the aftermath of the COVID-19 crisis. Austria’s tax mix is characterised by a high burden on labour, while the revenue potential of wealth-related and environmental taxes remains largely untapped and consumption taxes could be made more efficient. Tax reforms could help to shift the tax mix towards sources that are less detrimental to inclusive and sustainable growth, and provide a solid basis for recovery. In particular, insufficiently used taxes on alcohol and tobacco, pollution and resource consumption imply unused steering effects and revenue potential. The uneven, but generally low level of energy taxation undermines its efficiency and effectiveness as a policy tool to incentivise environmentally beneficial consumption. In particular, consistent taxation of CO2 emissions would make climate-friendly energy sources more competitive and provide fiscal space for reducing more distortive taxes. Higher, CO2-related energy taxes would help to internalise the social costs of pollution, lead consumers to rely more on renewable sources and encourage investors to invest in climate-friendly technologies. Finally, greater use of wealth-related taxes could make the tax system fairer, especially in view of Austria’s persistently high wealth inequality. In particular, recurrent property and inheritance taxes have proven to be relatively growth-friendly and progressive and should not be overlooked when it comes to generating tax revenues to restore public finances.

                  (19)

                  While Austria performed well on the Social Scoreboard supporting the European Pillar of Social Rights, gaps in coverage may mean a lack of income protection for vulnerable groups during the COVID-19 crisis and may require additional measures. While youth unemployment rises, the unemployed, long-term unemployed, non-standard workers and foreign-born people are particularly at risk of poverty. Active labour market policies providing lifelong learning opportunities and upskilling will remain crucially important. Disadvantaged students, including learners with disabilities, are particularly affected by circumstances that require distance learning. While some 10 % of pupils under the age of 15 have no access to a virtual learning environment, the Austrian government, in response to the COVID-19 crisis, has taken mitigating measures by providing pupils at risk with computers. Already existing inequalities in educational attainment, linked to socioeconomic and migrant backgrounds, risk however to be exacerbated. A recovery strategy that improves access to inclusive, good-quality early childhood education and care which have been shown to redress social disadvantages, would produce socioeconomic benefits in the medium and long term and provide opportunities for women to fully access the labour market. The overall employment rate of women was high before the crisis but almost half of them worked part-time (linked to short opening hours of schools and childcare facilities) causing a significant unadjusted gender pay gap.

                  (20)

                  The effectiveness of COVID-19 support measures in relieving hard-pressed firms, preserving business environments, and avoiding insolvencies depends on their swift and un-bureaucratic implementation by public authorities and intermediaries. Start-ups and scale-ups may need specific support, e.g. in the form of public institutions purchasing equity stakes and incentives for venture capital funds to invest more in such firms. This is to strengthen those firms that are vital for the recovery but also to avoid fire sales of strategically important European firms. In addition to funding support, hard-pressed firms, in particular smaller ones, need a supportive business environment. Administrative burden and regulatory density impose costs that firms can now afford less than ever. Efforts to reduce unnecessary burdens and provide efficient digital public services are an effective way of providing businesses with immediate, tangible relief without burdening the taxpayer. The insolvency framework should be geared to prevention but also to speedy unwinding and allowing for a second chance. Dispute resolution networks, such as SOLVIT, help companies in times of disruption to the internal market and need adequate resources.

                  (21)

                  To foster the economic recovery, it will be important to front-load mature public investment projects and promote private investment, including through relevant reforms. This investment will be most effective when focused on innovation, digitalisation and the green transition so as to increase productivity and ensure sustainable competitiveness. Austria’s research and development (R & D) intensity has been one of the highest in the Union but the country has lagged behind innovation leaders in terms of innovation outcomes. With many businesses’ research budgets now under pressure, it is even more important to translate Austria’s R & D efforts into excellent science and cutting-edge innovation, maintain public investment in basic and applied research, and ensure equity funding for innovative scale-ups. Digitalisation remains essential for opening up the economy and preparing for the ‘new normal’ after the COVID-19 lockdown. The weak diffusion of digital technologies and business models among smaller companies represents a bottleneck for productivity growth. While Austrians’ digital skills are in general above the EU average, not enough students graduate in computing to fill all available positions. Higher levels of e-commerce, working from home and e-government, for example, will require more investment in infrastructure (including 5G and rural broadband), equipment and skills.

                  (22)

                  Austria’s transformation to a climate neutral economy will require sizeable private and public investment over a sustained period. Austria’s national energy and climate plan identifies significant challenges in reaching its 2030 target for greenhouse gas emissions not covered by the Union emissions trading system. Improving resource productivity is a key driver for future growth while minimising impacts on the environment. Reducing transport-related emissions is essential for meeting air quality standards and climate goals. Front-loading and pursuing new investments to support the green transition will help to create new green jobs and kick-start the economy as it emerges from the COVID-19 crisis management mode. Investments in eco-innovation would trigger productivity growth while reducing Austria’s ecological footprint. The programming of the Just Transition Fund, which is the subject of a Commission proposal, for the period 2021-2027 could help Austria to address some of the challenges posed by the transition to a climate-neutral economy, in particular in the territories covered by Annex D to the 2020 country report. This would allow Austria to make the best use of that Fund.

                  (23)

                  While the country-specific recommendations set out in this Recommendation (‘the 2020 country-specific recommendations’) focus on tackling the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and facilitating the economic recovery, the 2019 country-specific recommendations also covered reforms that are essential to address medium- to long-term structural challenges. The 2019 country-specific recommendations remain pertinent and will continue to be monitored throughout next year’s European Semester. That includes the 2019 country-specific recommendations regarding investment-related economic policies. All of the 2019 country-specific recommendations should be taken into account for the strategic programming of post-2020 cohesion policy funding, including for mitigating measures and exit strategies with regard to the current crisis.

                  (24)

                  The European Semester provides the framework for continuous economic and employment policy coordination in the Union, which can contribute to a sustainable economy. In their 2020 National Reform Programmes, Member States have taken stock of progress made in the implementation of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By ensuring the full implementation of the 2020 country-specific recommendations, Austria will contribute to the progress towards the SDGs and to the common effort of ensuring competitive sustainability in the Union.

                  (25)

                  Close coordination between economies in the economic and monetary union is key in achieving a swift recovery from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a Member State whose currency is the euro, Austria should ensure that its policies remain consistent with the 2020 euro-area recommendations and coordinated with those of the other Member States whose currency is the euro, while taking into account political guidance from the Eurogroup.

                  (26)

                  In the context of the 2020 European Semester, the Commission has carried out a comprehensive analysis of Austria’s economic policy and published it in the 2020 country report. It has also assessed the 2020 Stability Programme, the 2020 National Reform Programme and the follow-up given to the country-specific recommendations addressed to Austria in previous years. The Commission has taken into account not only their relevance for sustainable fiscal and socioeconomic policy in Austria, but also their compliance with Union rules and guidance, given the need to strengthen the Union’s overall economic governance by providing Union-level input into future national decisions.

                  (27)

                  In the light of this assessment, the Council has examined the 2020 Stability Programme and its opinion (7) is reflected in particular in recommendation (1) below,

            HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Austria take action in 2020 and 2021 to:

                  1.

                  Take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, to effectively address the COVID-19 pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. When economic conditions allow, pursue fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Improve the resilience of the health system by strengthening public health and primary care.

                  2.

                  Ensure equal opportunities in education and increased digital learning.

                  3.

                  Ensure an effective implementation of liquidity and support measures, in particular for small and medium-sized enterprises, and reduce administrative and regulatory burden. Front-load mature public investment projects and promote private investment to foster the economic recovery. Focus investment on the green and digital transition, in particular on basic and applied research, as well as innovation, sustainable transport, clean and efficient production and use of energy.

                  4.

                  Make the tax mix more efficient and more supportive to inclusive and sustainable growth.

         Done at Brussels, 20 July 2020.

               For the Council

               The President

            J. KLOECKNER

         (1)  OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

         (2)  Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances (OJ L 306, 23.11.2011, p. 25).

         (3)  OJ C 301, 5.9.2019, p. 117.

         (4)  Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure (OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 6).

         (5)  Regulation (EU) 2020/460 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 March 2020 amending Regulations (EU) No 1301/2013, (EU) No 1303/2013 and (EU) No 508/2014 as regards specific measures to mobilise investments in the healthcare systems of Member States and in other sectors of their economies in response to the COVID-19 outbreak (Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative) (OJ L 99, 31.3.2020, p. 5).

         (6)  Regulation (EU) 2020/558 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2020 amending Regulations (EU) No 1301/2013 and (EU) No 1303/2013 as regards specific measures to provide exceptional flexibility for the use of the European Structural and Investments Funds in response to the COVID-19 outbreak (OJ L 130, 24.4.2020, p. 1).

         (7)  Under Article 5(2) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.


title: Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Poland and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Convergence Programme of Poland 2020/C 282/21

text:
               26.8.2020

               EN

               Official Journal of the European Union

               C 282/135

      COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
      of 20 July 2020
      on the 2020 National Reform Programme of Poland and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Convergence Programme of Poland
      (2020/C 282/21)
      THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,
      Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, and in particular Articles 121(2) and 148(4) thereof,
      Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies (1), and in particular Article 9(2) thereof,
      Having regard to the recommendation of the European Commission,
      Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,
      Having regard to the conclusions of the European Council,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Employment Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Social Protection Committee,
      Having regard to the opinion of the Economic Policy Committee,
      Whereas:

                  (1)

                  On 17 December 2019, the Commission adopted the Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, marking the start of the 2020 European Semester for economic policy coordination. It took due account of the European Pillar of Social Rights, proclaimed by the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission on 17 November 2017. On 17 December 2019, on the basis of Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council (2), the Commission also adopted the Alert Mechanism Report, in which it did not identify Poland as one of the Member States for which an in-depth review would be carried out.

                  (2)

                  The 2020 country report for Poland was published on 26 February 2020. It assessed Poland’s progress in addressing the country-specific recommendations adopted by the Council on 9 July 2019 (3) (‘the 2019 country-specific recommendations’), the follow-up given to the country-specific recommendations adopted in previous years and Poland’s progress towards its national Europe 2020 targets.

                  (3)

                  On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic. It is a severe public health emergency for citizens, societies and economies. It is putting national health systems under severe strain, disrupting global supply chains, causing volatility in financial markets, triggering consumer demand shocks and having negative effects across various sectors. It is threatening people’s jobs and incomes as well as companies’ business. It has delivered a major economic shock that is already having serious repercussions in the Union. On 13 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication calling for a coordinated economic response to the crisis, involving all actors at national and Union level.

                  (4)

                  Several Member States have declared a state of emergency or introduced emergency measures. Any emergency measures should be strictly proportionate, necessary, limited in time, and in line with European and international standards. They should be subject to democratic oversight and independent judicial review.

                  (5)

                  On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a communication on the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact. The general escape clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 (4), facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. In its communication of 20 March 2020, the Commission considered that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the conditions for the activation of the general escape clause had been met and asked the Council to endorse this conclusion. On 23 March 2020, the ministers of finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. They agreed that the severe economic downturn requires a resolute, ambitious and coordinated response. The activation of the general escape clause allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective, provided that this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. For the corrective arm, the Council may also decide, on a recommendation from the Commission, to adopt a revised fiscal trajectory. The general escape clause does not suspend the procedures of the Stability and Growth Pact. It allows Member States to depart from the budgetary requirements that would normally apply while enabling the Commission and the Council to undertake the necessary policy coordination measures within the framework of the Pact.

                  (6)

                  Continued action is required to limit and control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, strengthen the resilience of the national health systems, mitigate the socioeconomic consequences of the pandemic through supportive measures for business and households, and ensure adequate health and safety conditions at the workplace with a view to resuming economic activity. The Union should fully use the various tools at its disposal to support Member States’ efforts in those areas. In parallel, Member States and the Union should work together to prepare the measures necessary to bring about a return to the normal functioning of our societies and economies and to sustainable growth, integrating, inter alia, the green transition and the digital transformation, and drawing lessons from the crisis.

                  (7)

                  The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted the flexibility that the internal market offers to adapt to extraordinary situations. However, in order to ensure a swift and smooth transition to the recovery phase and the free movement of goods, services and workers, exceptional measures that prevent the internal market from functioning normally should be removed as soon as they are no longer indispensable. The current crisis has shown the need for crisis preparedness plans in the health sector, Improved purchasing strategies, diversified supply chains and strategic reserves of essential supplies are among the key elements for developing broader crisis preparedness plans.

                  (8)

                  The Union legislator has already amended the relevant legislative frameworks by means of Regulations (EU) 2020/460 (5) and (EU) 2020/558 (6) of the European Parliament and of the Council to allow Member States to mobilise all unused resources from the European Structural and Investment Funds so they can address the exceptional effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those amendments will provide additional flexibility, as well as simplified and streamlined procedures. To alleviate cash-flow pressures, Member States can also benefit from a 100 % co-financing rate from the Union budget in the 2020-2021 accounting year. Poland is encouraged to make full use of those possibilities to help the individuals and sectors most affected.

                  (9)

                  The socioeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to be unevenly distributed across regions because of different specialisation patterns. This entails a risk of widening territorial disparities within Poland. Combined with the risk of a temporary unravelling of the convergence process between Member States, the current situation calls for targeted policy responses.

                  (10)

                  Poland submitted its 2020 National Reform Programme on 29 April 2020 and its 2020 Convergence Programme on 30 April 2020. In order to take account of their interlinkages, the two programmes have been assessed at the same time.

                  (11)

                  Poland is currently in the preventive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact.

                  (12)

                  On 13 July 2018, the Council recommended Poland to ensure that the nominal growth rate of net primary government expenditure (7) does not exceed 4,2 % in 2019, corresponding to an annual structural adjustment of 0,6 % of gross domestic product (GDP). The Commission’s overall assessment confirms a significant deviation from the recommended adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective in 2019 as well as over 2018 and 2019 taken together. However, in light of the activation of the general escape clause, further steps under the significant deviation procedure for Poland are not warranted.

                  (13)

                  In its 2020 Convergence Programme, the government plans the headline balance to deteriorate from a deficit of 0,7 % of GDP in 2019 to a deficit of 8,4 % of GDP in 2020. After decreasing to 46,0 % of GDP in 2019, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to increase to 55,2 % in 2020. The macroeconomic and fiscal outlook is affected by high uncertainty because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

                  (14)

                  In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and as part of a coordinated Union approach, Poland has adopted timely budgetary measures to increase the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic, and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. According to the 2020 Convergence Programme, those budgetary measures amount to 3,2 % of GDP and include allowances for self-employed and employed on non-standard labour contracts, exempting companies from social contributions (they are to be paid by the State), and subsidies to wages for certain companies. In addition, Poland has announced measures that, while not having a direct budgetary impact, will contribute to providing liquidity support to businesses, such as loan guarantees for enterprises. The fiscal impact of the budgetary measures provided in the Convergence Programme differs mainly due the treatment of loans to companies. In line with the authorities’ announcements, the Commission 2020 spring forecast is based on the assumption that loans equivalent to around 2¾ percentage points of GDP will be converted into subsidies and thus recorded as expenditure in 2020. Overall, the measures taken by Poland are in line with the guidelines set out in the Commission communication of 13 March 2020. The full implementation of the emergency measures and of supportive fiscal measures, followed by a refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions when economic conditions allow, will contribute to preserving fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

                  (15)

                  Based on the Commission 2020 spring forecast under unchanged policies, Poland’s general government balance is forecast at -9,5 % of GDP in 2020 and -3,8 % of GDP in 2021. The general government debt ratio is projected to remain below 60 % of GDP in 2020 and 2021.

                  (16)

                  On 20 May 2020, the Commission issued a report prepared in accordance with Article 126(3) of the Treaty because of Poland’s planned breach of the 3 %-of-GDP deficit threshold in 2020. Overall, the Commission’s analysis suggests that the deficit criterion as defined in the Treaty and in Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 has not been fulfilled.

                  (17)

                  The COVID-19 outbreak has pushed Poland into a new social and economic situation. For the first time in almost three decades, a recession is forecast for 2020. According to the data provided by the government, the pandemic’s impact on the health of the population was comparatively low, including due to an early adoption of unprecedented measures such as strict quarantine and social distancing. So far, the most negative consequences have been observed in the services sector (including transport, retail and wholesale trade and leisure), as well as in manufacturing, as a result of interruptions in supply chains. To offset the economic impact of imposed restrictions, the government has launched a set of measures worth around 9 % of Poland’s GDP (deficit increasing measures and liquidity measures combined), which includes Union financing. This is also supported by the liquidity provision measures of the National Bank of Poland. The government’s support focuses on stabilising the economy in the short term through supporting employees’ incomes, providing financing for businesses facing drops in revenue, strengthening resilience and responsiveness of the health sector, and strengthening the financial system. It also includes an investment programme to support economic recovery in the medium term. Public demand for the policy response, including through exemptions from social security contributions, benefits for employees in companies that are suspending their activity and access to loans for microenterprises, is high. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to contribute to the GDP decline by 4,3 % in 2020, followed by a recovery of 4,1 % in 2021.

                  (18)

                  The COVID-19 pandemic made it necessary to put in place unprecedented measures in the health system. Sizeable outlays such as purchasing health-related equipment and supplies, increasing hospital and laboratory capacity, as well as strengthening staffing capacity, were made. Allocation of additional resources is needed also to compensate for other health services and investment that were postponed or redirected. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, public expenditure in health system was 4,8 % of GDP, below the Union average of 7 % of GDP in 2018. This, together with suboptimal allocation of funds, hampers the operation of the health system and access to it. In 2018, the proportion of the Polish population reporting unmet needs for medical examinations amounted to 4,2 %, substantially higher than the 2 % at Union level. The number of practising doctors and nurses relative to the population is still among the lowest in the Union and the distribution of the healthcare workforce is uneven across the country. Public health, e-health and primary care, which are crucial to improve prevention and access, and to make the system resilient to future challenges, remain underdeveloped. The pandemic has impacted long-term care facilities where many of the residents are a high-risk group.

                  (19)

                  The COVID-19 pandemic will impact significantly the labour market, reversing the unemployment fall of recent years. The unemployment rate is set to revert from 3,3 % in 2019 to around 7,5 % in 2020, and slightly recover to 5,3 % in 2021. This short-term impact risks becoming more structural over the medium term, especially for vulnerable groups. The temporary short-time work scheme could be an effective tool to preserve jobs, with sufficient incentives for its take-up by companies. At the same time, despite favourable developments prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the labour market participation of some groups, especially women, the low-skilled, older people and persons with disabilities and their carers, have remained low. Migration from non-Union countries has helped to mitigate the labour shortages, but continued inflow of migrant workers may be difficult to achieve due to border control restrictions. The enhancement of flexible working arrangements, including distance working and flexible time working schemes, in particular under permanent types of employment, may therefore help responding to the crisis and also help support groups with lower activity rates finding permanent employment. This would also improve labour market resilience during future downturns.

                  (20)

                  To mitigate the social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, sustain social cohesion and support the economic recovery, substantial safety nets are required. In recent years, Poland launched an extensive programme of social transfers, including the universal child allowance and the additional one-off benefit to be paid every year to pensioners, worth nearly 2,5 % of GDP per year. These measures leave scope for better targeting of social protection. At the same time, coverage of social benefits is low for people with lowest-incomes. The biggest increase in extreme poverty reported in 2019 by the household budget survey was observed for people or families living on allowances (other than pensions and disability pensions), signalling the weaknesses in the social security system. Moreover, not all types of labour contracts provide an access to social protection, such as adequate unemployment benefits, maternity benefits, sickness and invalidity benefits. This makes some workers affected by the emergency measures more vulnerable and puts them at risk of falling into poverty. Additionally, the level of minimum income benefits is below the Union average.

                  (21)

                  The sudden suspension of classes at all educational levels has posed challenges for the education system in providing distance learning. To prevent growing inequalities, it is crucial to ensure that all learners, in particular from disadvantaged backgrounds, can access distance learning. However, households of almost 330 000 pupils were not equipped with a computer with internet access in 2018. Significant proportion of teachers lack skills to provide digital learning. At the same time, many parents struggle in supporting digital learning and home-based schooling. Continuation of measures to equip schools and teachers with digital infrastructure and online teaching materials would address some of those issues and ensure quality. The COVID-19 crisis brings out the overall structural challenge with digital skills attainment, as nearly half of the adult population lacks basic digital skills, and overall adults’ participation in learning is significantly lower than the Union average. The recent reforms in vocational education have not incentivised enough employers to participate in it and work-based training remains underutilised. Emerging teacher shortages indicate the need to increase the attractiveness of the teaching profession.

                  (22)

                  The COVID-19 outbreak has severely impacted working conditions of businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (‘SMEs’) and microenterprises. Offering distance working arrangements represents a challenge, and only a tenth of Polish enterprises are digitalised enough to allow for quick adaptation to new conditions. One of the main obstacles to the digitalisation of the SMEs are the low levels of digital literacy among owners, managers and employees. The use of digital technologies in public administration is key to ensuring the provision of the governmental services as well as to steer the measures needed to monitor and manage the crisis. In addition, efficient digital public services lead to reduction of unnecessary regulatory and administrative burden, which can be crucial in the recovery phase.

                  (23)

                  To mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, the Polish government has offered substantial liquidity support through guarantees, loans and conditional grants to affected companies, with a focus on the SMEs and microenterprises. The government measures are supported by the National Bank of Poland, including by the treasury bonds purchase programme in the secondary market and considerable interest rate cuts. Effective and swift implementation of those measures and their effective transmission by intermediaries is essential to help the business sector to pursue their activity and facilitate recovery. In the process of designing and implementing those measures, the resilience of the banking sector needs to be taken into account and the stability of the financial system needs to be monitored. Possibility to defer payments of taxes and social contributions and speeding up of contractual payments by public authorities also helps to improve the cash flow of affected companies.

                  (24)

                  To foster the economic recovery, it will be important to front-load mature public investment projects and promote private investment, including through relevant reforms. Polish economy is carbon intensive and air quality stands among the lowest in the Union, posing major environmental and health concerns. Planning and adopting ambitious measures aimed at clean energy transition in a timely manner in accordance with the European Green Deal and the National Energy and Climate Plan is thus essential. While fibre deployment in Poland is above the Union average and significant progress has been made in ultrafast and mobile broadband take-up in previous years, Poland is still far from its committed connectivity targets. The recovery could be further supported by significant investment in sustainable transport infrastructure to improve connectivity between peripheral areas and centres of economic activity. Poland will increasingly rely on science and innovation to ensure long-term sustainable economic growth and competitiveness. General spending on research and development in relation to GDP remains below the Union average and, despite visible progress in many components of the policy mix of the country’s innovation ecosystem, the science-business cooperation remains a key obstacle on Poland’s way to strengthen innovation. The programming of the Just Transition Fund, which is the subject of a Commission proposal, for the period 2021-2027 could help Poland to address some of the challenges posed by the transition to a climate-neutral economy, in particular in the territories covered by Annex D to the 2020 country report. This would allow Poland to make the best use of that Fund.

                  (25)

                  A stable and predictable business environment and friendly investment climate play an important role in a post-pandemic economic recovery. The independence, efficiency and quality of the justice system are essential components in this respect. Legal certainty, including access to independent courts, and trust in the quality and predictability of regulatory policies and institutions are also crucial factors for the operation of the internal market and for safeguarding Poland’s position in European supply chains in a post-pandemic situation. In addition to longstanding concerns over the rule of law in Poland raised by the Commission, a number of which were already addressed in rulings of the Court of Justice of the European Union, recent developments raise further concerns, in relation to the functioning of the Polish and the Union’s legal order.

                  (26)

                  Sound and stable regulatory environment is the basis for sustaining economic growth and private investment. The lack of proper public and social partners’ consultations has detrimental effect on the stability and robustness of the business environment, as well as on the quality of legislation. Public consultations were made obligatory for the draft laws proposed by the Council of Ministers, however, they are either not delivered or not obligatory for the proposals that are using alternative tracks, such as submission by the Members of Parliament. This inconsistency is further weighing on the quality of the resulting legislation. In addition, the quality of the social dialogue has deteriorated, in particular due to no or very short consultations in the policy-making process. Ensuring sufficient time for consultations, improving the uptake of stakeholders’ opinions on laws and policy documents and minimising the number of laws exempted from consultations would strengthen the involvement of social partners and help to improve the quality of law-making. The Social Dialogue Council constitutes an institutional framework for tripartite social dialogue. However, legal provisions adopted in April 2020 weaken the autonomy of the social partners in the Social Dialogue Council and risk further deteriorating the effectiveness of social dialogue in the country.

                  (27)

                  While the country-specific recommendations set out in this Recommendation (‘the 2020 country-specific recommendations’) focus on tackling the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and facilitating the economic recovery, the 2019 country-specific recommendations also covered reforms that are essential to address medium- to long-term structural challenges. The 2019 country-specific recommendations remain pertinent and will continue to be monitored throughout next year’s European Semester. That includes the 2019 country-specific recommendations regarding investment-related economic policies. All of the 2019 country-specific recommendations should be taken into account for the strategic programming of post-2020 cohesion policy funding, including for mitigating measures and exit strategies with regard to the current crisis.

                  (28)

                  The European Semester provides the framework for continuous economic and employment policy coordination in the Union, which can contribute to a sustainable economy. In their 2020 National Reform Programmes, Member States have taken stock of progress made in the implementation of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). By ensuring the full implementation of the 2020 country-specific recommendations, Poland will contribute to the progress towards the SDGs and to the common effort of ensuring competitive sustainability in the Union.

                  (29)

                  In the context of the 2020 European Semester, the Commission has carried out a comprehensive analysis of Poland’s economic policy and published it in the 2020 country report. It has also assessed the 2020 Convergence Programme, the 2020 National Reform Programme and the follow-up given to the country-specific recommendations addressed to Poland in previous years. The Commission has taken into account not only their relevance for sustainable fiscal and socioeconomic policy in Poland, but also their compliance with Union rules and guidance, given the need to strengthen the Union’s overall economic governance by providing Union-level input into future national decisions.

                  (30)

                  In the light of this assessment, the Council has examined the 2020 Convergence Programme and its opinion (8) is reflected in particular in recommendation (1) below,

            HEREBY RECOMMENDS that Poland take action in 2020 and 2021 to:

                  1.

                  Take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, to effectively address the COVID-19 pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. When economic conditions allow, pursue fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Improve resilience, accessibility and effectiveness of the health system, including by providing sufficient resources and accelerating the deployment of e-health services.

                  2.

                  Mitigate the employment impact of the crisis, in particular by enhancing flexible and short-time working arrangements. Better target social benefits and ensure access to those in need. Improve digital skills. Further promote the digital transformation of companies and public administration.

                  3.

                  Continue efforts to secure access to finance and liquidity for companies. Front-load mature public investment projects and promote private investment to foster the economic recovery. Focus investment on the green and digital transition, in particular on digital infrastructure, clean and efficient production and use of energy, and sustainable transport, contributing to a progressive decarbonisation of the economy, including in the coal regions.

                  4.

                  Enhance the investment climate, in particular by safeguarding judicial independence. Ensure effective public consultations and involvement of social partners in the policy-making process.

         Done at Brussels, 20 July 2020.

               For the Council

               The President

            J. KLOECKNER

         (1)  OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

         (2)  Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 November 2011 on the prevention and correction of macroeconomic imbalances (OJ L 306, 23.11.2011, p. 25).

         (3)  OJ C 301, 5.9.2019, p. 123.

         (4)  Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure (OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 6).

         (5)  Regulation (EU) 2020/460 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 March 2020 amending Regulations (EU) No 1301/2013, (EU) No 1303/2013 and (EU) No 508/2014 as regards specific measures to mobilise investments in the healthcare systems of Member States and in other sectors of their economies in response to the COVID-19 outbreak (Coronavirus Response Investment Initiative) (OJ L 99, 31.3.2020, p. 5).

         (6)  Regulation (EU) 2020/558 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2020 amending Regulations (EU) No 1301/2013 and (EU) No 1303/2013 as regards specific measures to provide exceptional flexibility for the use of the European Structural and Investments Funds in response to the COVID-19 outbreak (OJ L 130, 24.4.2020, p. 1).

         (7)  Net primary government expenditure comprises total government expenditure excluding interest expenditure, expenditure on Union programmes fully matched by Union funds revenue and non-discretionary changes in unemployment benefit expenditure. Nationally financed gross fixed capital formation is smoothed over a four-year period. Discretionary revenue measures or revenue increases mandated by law are factored in. One-off measures on both the revenue and expenditure sides are netted out.

         (8)  Under Article 9(2) of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.