title: Recommendation for a Council opinion in accordance with the third paragraph of Article 5 of Council Regulation (EC) n°1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the updated stability programme of Greece, 2002-2006

text: ---pagebreak---  ---pagebreak---  ---pagebreak---  ---pagebreak---  ---pagebreak---  ---pagebreak---  ---pagebreak---


Avis juridique important

|

52004SC0825

Recommendation for a Council opinion in accordance with the third paragraph of Art. 9 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 On the convergence programme of Poland, 2004-2007  /* SEC/2004/0825 final */

Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION in accordance with the third paragraph of Art. 9 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 On the convergence programme of Poland, 2004-2007(presented by the Commission)EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUMCouncil Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies [1] stipulates that non-participating Member States, that is, those which have not adopted the single currency, have to submit convergence programmes to the Council and the Commission for the purpose of multilateral surveillance at regular intervals under Article 99 of the Treaty.[1]  OJ L 209, 2.8.1997. All the documents referred to in this text can be found at the following website: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm.In accordance with Article 9 of this Regulation, the Council has to examine each convergence programme based on assessments prepared by the Commission and the Committee set up by Article 114 of the Treaty (the Economic and Financial Committee). On the basis of a recommendation from the Commission and after consulting the Economic and Financial Committee, the Council is required to deliver an opinion, following its examination of the programme. According to the Regulation, Member States need to submit annual updates of their convergence programmes, which may also be examined by the Council in accordance with these same procedures.The ten countries that joined the EU on 1 May 2004 have a derogation and thus do not yet participate in the single currency. They committed themselves to submitting their convergence programmes by 15 May 2004 and a first update thereof towards the end of 2004.Poland's convergence programme covering the period 2004-2007 was submitted on 17 May 2004. The Commission services have carried out a technical evaluation of this programme, taking into account the results of the Spring 2004 forecasts and having regard to the Code of Conduct [2] and the principles laid down in the Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament of 27 November 2002 on strengthening the co-ordination of budgetary policies [3]. This evaluation warrants the following assessment:[2]  Revised Opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee on the content and format of stability and convergence programmes, endorsed by the ECOFIN Council on 10.7.2001.[3]  COM(2002) 668 final, 27.11.2002.Poland's first convergence programme covering the period 2004-2007 was submitted on 17 May 2004. The programme does not specify the Polish authorities' intentions as regards the envisaged timing of ERM II entry or euro adoption.The programme only partly complies with the data requirements of the revised "code of conduct on the content and format of stability and convergence programmes" and adheres to ESA95 standards [4]. In particular, the quality of ESA95 data on the composition of the general government revenue and expenditure needs to be further improved.[4]  The programme deviates from data requirements in the area of the long-term sustainability of public finances; information needed to fill table 6 of Annex 1 of the code of conduct has not been regrouped and is not complete. Table 2/Annex 1 on the general government budgetary developments points to a misclassification. In addition, inflation is still reported on the basis on the consumer price index (CPI) although table 1 of Annex 1 requires projections for the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP).The general government deficit increased to 4.1% of GDP in 2003, above the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value. The Commission initiated the excessive deficit procedure for Poland on 12 May 2004, with the adoption of a report in accordance with Article 104(3) of the Treaty. The Economic and Financial Committee issued its opinion on this report on 25 May. On [5 July 2004], the Council is expected, on the basis of two Commission recommendations, to decide that an excessive deficit exists in Poland and to make recommendations to Poland to bring this situation to an end. The deficit figures will have to be adjusted upward if the open pension funds are excluded from the general government sector following the EUROSTAT decision on the classification of funded pension schemes.The macroeconomic framework presented in the programme predicts a gradual acceleration of GDP growth from 3.7% in 2003 to 5.0% in 2004 and 2005 and to 5.6% in 2006 and 2007. Net exports will continue to support economic growth this year, while domestic demand is expected to take over this role from 2005 onwards. The scenario up to 2005 is very close to the Commission Spring 2004 forecasts. And recent information points to even higher GDP growth in 2004 than projected in the programme. In the outer years of the programme period, the projected acceleration in GDP growth reflects strong expansion of domestic demand. This projection rests on perhaps optimistic assumptions about both investment and private consumption. Nevertheless, the dissipation of uncertainties surrounding fiscal policy, through the full implementation of the Hausner plan, would be instrumental in achieving the projected double-digit investment growth rates as well as the expected strong acceleration of private consumption growth. The programme includes estimates of potential output growth and projects that actual GDP growth will exceed potential over the whole programme period.HICP inflation dropped from 10.1% in 2000 to 0.7% in 2003. The fall in inflation largely reflected tight monetary policy, the widening of the output gap and declining food and oil prices. Although inflation has picked up since mid-2003, it remains low. Much of the increase in headline inflation observed recently has been due to rising oil prices and an end to the fall in food prices, while limited price pressures have emerged so far from the demand side. The real effective exchange rate of the zloty has depreciated sharply since mid-2001. This decline is to a large extent the consequence of the continuous disinflation path and the nominal depreciation of the zloty against the euro. Yield spreads between Polish and euro area benchmark bonds narrowed between 2001 and mid-2003, but widened again in the second half of 2003 and early 2004. No change to the existing monetary and exchange rate arrangements, i.e. a direct inflation-targeting framework combined with a floating exchange rate regime, is foreseen before entry into ERM II.The budgetary strategy underlying the programme aims at reducing the general government deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2007 and maintaining the debt ratio below 60% of GDP. The general government deficit is expected to increase in 2004 from 4.1% of GDP in 2003 to 5.7% and to decrease steadily thereafter. For 2005, 2006 and 2007, the projections are for headline deficits of 4.2%, 3.3% and 1.5% respectively. The programme incorporates a comprehensive set of measures (the so-called Hausner plan), which, if fully implemented, would result in a cumulative correction of the deficit over the period 2005-2007 by 5.3% of GDP of additional revenues and savings (3.3% of GDP in the social area and 2% of GDP in public administration and state-owned enterprises). The achievement of the deficit targets is also conditional on projected high GDP growth throughout the programme period. In comparison to the August 2003 pre-accession economic programme the most significant difference is the upward revision of the general government deficit in 2004 by 0.7 percentage points of GDP, despite the confirmed economic recovery, ascribed in the programme inter alia to EU-accession-related expenditure.The reduction of the deficit between 2004 and 2007 is ambitious amounting to more than 4 percentage points of GDP. Many risks surround the planned consolidation strategy. Besides the downside macroeconomic risk highlighted above, a delayed or incomplete implementation of the envisaged measures seems a distinct possibility in view of the uncertain political situation. The planned adjustment is not only heavily back-loaded but also appears only in part consistent with the sequence announced in the Hausner plan. In particular, in the run-up to the elections, savings stemming from the measures already voted by Parliament could be used for consumption and the fulfilment of some pre-election promises rather than for deficit reduction, all the more so as the Hausner plan is socially sensitive as most of the savings are expected in the social area. In turn, the monetary authorities may respond to a lax fiscal policy with a more cautious stance keeping interest rates at a relatively high level in order to maintain a stable macroeconomic environment. In the medium-term, a combination of large deficits and high real interest rates can be damaging for growth by hampering investment and backfire on the attainment of the budgetary targets. Finally, as a consequence of a recent Eurostat decision on the classification of the funded pension scheme, the planned figures for the deficit may have to be revised upwards by 1.6 percentage points of GDP.The government debt ratio increased from 36.7% of GDP in 2001 to 45.4% in 2003. The debt ratio is projected to increase further up to 2006, reaching 52.7% of GDP at the end of 2006, before declining to 52.3% of GDP in 2007. The Commission Spring 2004 forecasts show a similar steady increase in the debt ratio up to 2005. The classification of the open pension funds outside the general government sector would lead to a further increase in the debt figures by approximately 4.5 percentage points. Even under this scenario, the debt ratio would remain below the 60% of GDP reference value over the programme period. The planned slowdown and eventual reversal of the increase in the debt ratio would reflect the combined effect of improving primary balances and an increasing nominal growth dividend, partially offsetting the persistent net debt-increasing impact of the stock-flow adjustment. It is also conditional on sizeable privatisation proceeds. The programme assumes that privatisation receipts in the period 2004-06 would amount to about 0.8% of GDP on average each year, i.e. twice the level reached in 2003. This assumption appears optimistic given the experience of the past three years, when actual privatisation receipts turned out to be significantly lower than planned.The programme presents the measures envisaged in the Hausner plan to curb social spending and improve public expenditure management. The proposed reforms are ambitious and, if fully implemented, would constitute a major step towards addressing Poland's fiscal problems. The adjustment path described in the programme hinges critically on the implementation of the planned reform of social protection. In particular, important savings would result from the reform of the two most important social benefit systems in Poland, the disability pension system and the special farmers' social security system. Also, the envisaged revision or suppression of automatic indexation mechanisms of social benefits would contribute to easing expenditure pressures. Besides their budgetary impact, these reforms would pave the way for reducing the high labour tax wedge, which is a major impediment to job creation and discourages labour market participation.Poland faces a risk of budgetary imbalances in meeting the projected costs of an ageing population. Securing an adequate primary surplus in the medium term together with the implementation of measures to stem the pension system deficit and to limit the assumption of liabilities of the state-enterprises and the health care system is essential to place public finances on a sustainable footing.Table: Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections>TABLE POSITION>Based on this assessment, the Commission has adopted the attached recommendation for a Council Opinion on the convergence programme of Poland and is forwarding it to the Council.Recommendation for a COUNCIL OPINION in accordance with the third paragraph of Art. 9 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 On the convergence programme of Poland, 2004-2007THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Community,Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies [5], and in particular Article 9(3) thereof,[5]  OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1. The documents referred to in this text can be found at the following website: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm.Having regard to the recommendation of the Commission,After consulting the Economic and Financial Committee,HAS ADOPTED THIS OPINION:On [5 July 2004] the Council examined the convergence programme of Poland, which covers the period 2004 to 2007. The programme only partly complies with the data requirements of the revised "code of conduct on the content and format of stability and convergence programmes" and with ESA 95 standards.The budgetary strategy underlying the programme aims at reducing the general government deficit to below 3% of GDP by 2007 (with the following intermediary annual targets: 5.7% of GDP in 2004, 4.2% of GDP in 2005, 3.3% in 2006 and 1.5% in 2007) and maintaining the debt ratio below 60% of GDP. To this end, the programme incorporates a comprehensive set of measures (the so-called Hausner plan) endorsed by the government in January 2004, which, if fully implemented, would result in a cumulative correction of the deficit by 5.3% of GDP of additional revenues and expenditure savings over the period 2005-2007 (3.3% of GDP in the social area and 2.0% of GDP in public administration and state-owned enterprises). The achievement of the deficit target is also conditional on projected high growth throughout the programme period.On the basis of currently available information, the macro-economic scenario underlying the programme seems to reflect rather favourable growth assumptions. If the growth forecast of 5.0% for 2004 and 2005 appears plausible and could even be exceeded in 2004, the evolution of growth in the medium term projected in the programme, i.e. an acceleration of GDP growth to 5.6% in 2006 and 2007, reflects somewhat optimistic assumptions about both private consumption and investment. In this regard, the full implementation of the Hausner plan and the ensuing dissipation of fiscal uncertainties are crucial to achieve the projected strengthening of growth. The projection for inflation appears broadly realistic.The programme projects the deficit to be reduced to below the 3% of GDP reference value in 2007. Several risks surround the programme targets. Besides the downside macroeconomic risks highlighted above, there is a lack of information on the envisaged measures and uncertainty over their implementation, with the planned adjustment not only being heavily back-loaded but also only partly consistent with the corrections announced in the Hausner plan. Finally, as the effect of a recent Eurostat decision on the classification of the funded pension scheme, the planned figures for the deficit may have to be revised upwards by 1.6 percentage points of GDP. Therefore, the budgetary stance in the programme may not be sufficient to reduce the deficit to below 3% of GDP during the programme period.In the programme, the debt ratio is projected to increase by 7 percentage points of GDP over the period 2004-2007, with the increase coming to a halt only in the final year of the programme. The evolution of the debt ratio is likely to be less favourable than projected given the risks to the deficit outcomes mentioned above and significant uncertainties about the realisation of planned privatisation proceeds.Poland faces a risk of budgetary imbalances in meeting the projected costs of an ageing population. While the pension reform dating back to 1999 and establishing a progressive three-tier pension system - including parametric changes to the pay-as-you-go pillar, e.g. limiting the possibility of early retirement - has mitigated the risks of long-term budgetary imbalances, it has not entirely removed them. Securing an adequate primary surplus in the medium term together with the implementation of measures to stem the pension system deficit and to limit the assumption of liabilities of the state-enterprises and the health care system is essential to place public finances on a sustainable footing.* * *On [5 July 2004], on the basis of recommendations from the Commission, the Council decided that an excessive deficit existed in Poland in accordance with Article 104(6) of the Treaty and made recommendations under Article 104(7) to Poland with a view to bringing that situation to an end, in which the Council expresses its policy advice.Key projections from the convergence programme of Poland>TABLE POSITION>


title: Commission Recommendation of 3 May 2007 on the monitoring of acrylamide levels in food (notified under document number C(2007) 1873) (Text with EEA relevance)

text:
               12.5.2007

               EN

               Official Journal of the European Union

               L 123/33

      COMMISSION RECOMMENDATION

   of 3 May 2007
   on the monitoring of acrylamide levels in food
   (notified under document number C(2007) 1873)
   (Text with EEA relevance)
   (2007/331/EC)
   THE COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES,
   Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Community, and in particular the second indent of Article 211 thereof,
   Whereas,

               (1)

               The Scientific Panel on Contaminants in the Food Chain of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) adopted on 19 April 2005 a statement on acrylamide in food in which it endorsed the risk assessment on acrylamide in food carried out by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA) in February 2005. In that assessment JECFA concluded that the margins of exposure for average and high consumers were low for a compound that is genotoxic and carcinogenic and that this may indicate a human health concern. Therefore, appropriate efforts to reduce acrylamide concentrations in foodstuffs should continue.

               (2)

               The food industry and the Member States have investigated pathways of formation of acrylamide. The food industry has developed voluntary measures, such as the so-called ‘toolbox’ (1) approach, which provides guidance to help producers and processors identify ways to lower acrylamide in their respective products. Extensive efforts have already been undertaken since 2002 in order to reduce the levels of acrylamide in processed foods.

               (3)

               It is necessary to collect reliable data on acrylamide levels in food over at least a three-year time span across the Community in order to get a clear picture of the levels of acrylamide in those foodstuffs that are known to contain high acrylamide levels and/or contribute significantly to the dietary intake of the whole population and of specific vulnerable groups, such as infants and young children.

               (4)

               It is important that these data are reported once a year to EFSA who will ensure the compilation of these data into a database.

               (5)

               The analytical results will be evaluated in order to assess the effectiveness of voluntary measures. The monitoring programme provided for by this Recommendation may be adapted at any time if this is appropriate in view of the experiences gained,

         HEREBY RECOMMENDS:

               1.

               That Member States perform annually in 2007, 2008 and 2009, in accordance with Annex 1 the monitoring of acrylamide levels in the foodstuffs referred to in that Annex.

               2.

               That Member States provide by 1 June each year the monitoring data of the previous year to EFSA with the information and in the format as set out in Annex II for compilation into one database.

               3.

               That Member States, for the purpose of the monitoring programme, follow the sampling procedures as laid down in part B of the Annex to Commission Regulation (EC) No 333/2007 of 28 March 2007 on the methods of sampling and analysis for the official control of the levels of lead, cadmium, mercury, inorganic tin, 3-MCPD and benzo(a)pyrene in foodstuffs (2) in order to ensure that the samples are representative for the sampled lot.

               4.

               That Member States carry out the analysis of acrylamide in accordance with the criteria laid down in points 1 and 2 of Annex III to Regulation (EC) No 882/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2004 on official controls to ensure the verification of compliance with feed and food law, animal health and animal welfare rules (3).

      Done at Brussels, 3 May 2007.

            For the Commission

         Markos KYPRIANOU

            Member of the Commission

      (1)  The ‘toolbox’ contains 13 different parameters (‘tools’), grouped together in four main categories (‘toolbox compartments’) that can be used selectively by food producers in line with their particular needs in order to lower acrylamide levels in their products. The four compartments refer to agronomical factors, the food recipe, processing and final preparation.

      (2)  OJ L 88, 29.3.2007, p. 29.

      (3)  OJ L 165, 30.4.2004, p. 1; corrected version in OJ L 191, 28.5.2004, p. 1. Regulation as amended by Council Regulation (EC) No 1791/2006 (OJ L 363, 20.12.2006, p. 1).

      ANNEX I
      A.   Sampling points and procedure:

                  1.

                  The sampling of the products should be carried out at market level (e.g. at supermarkets, smaller shops, bakeries, French fries outlets and restaurants), where there is a good traceability, or at production sites. Products with origin in one of the Member States should be sampled wherever possible (1).

                  2.

                  Sampling and analysis should be carried out before the expiry date of the sample.

            B.   Products, sample numbers and frequencies, analytical requirements

                  1.

                  Table 1 gives an overview on the recommended minimum number of samples to analyse annually for each product category. Member States are invited to take more samples when possible. The distribution of samples per Member State is based on population figures with a minimum sample number of four per product and Member State.

                  2.

                  The sample numbers refer to the minimum number of samples to be taken annually. Where specific conditions apply (e.g. sampling twice yearly) this is specified in Annex I, point C for each product group.

                  3.

                  Since each product category comprises a wide variety of products with different specifications, additional information should be provided for each of the products sampled (as specified in Annex I, point C). In order to see time trends it is important that products with the same specifications (e.g. same type of bread, same brand, etc.) are sampled every year where possible. For French fries sampled at small shops, the same shops should be chosen every year if possible.

                  4.

                  If in products with the same specification results below the limit of quantification (LOQ) are obtained repeatedly, the product can be exchanged with another product provided that it falls in the same product category and a description of the product is given.

                  5.

                  To ensure comparability of analytical results methods should be chosen that can achieve an LOQ of 30 μg/kg (most intense ion/ion transition) for bread and baby foods and 50 μg/kg for potato products, other cereal products, coffee and other products. Results shall be reported corrected for recovery.
                  Table 1
                  Minimum sample numbers per product category

                              Country of sale

                              French fries sold as ready to eat (1)

                              Potato crisps (2)

                              Pre-cooked French fries/potato products for home cooking (3)

                              Bread (4)

                              Breakfast cereals (5)

                              Biscuits, including infant biscuits (6)

                              Roasted coffee (7)

                              Jarred baby foods (8)

                              Processed cereal-based baby foods (9)

                              Other products (10)

                              Total

                              AT

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              BE

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              CY

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              CZ

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              DE

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              24

                              14

                              230

                              DK

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              ES

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              140

                              EE

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              GR

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              FR

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              14

                              194

                              FI

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              HU

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              IT

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              14

                              194

                              IE

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              LU

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              LT

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              LV

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              MT

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              NL

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              6

                              8

                              62

                              PT

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              PL

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              14

                              140

                              SE

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              SI

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              40

                              SK

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              UK

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              20

                              14

                              194

                              BG

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              4

                              8

                              44

                              RO

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              8

                              80

                              Total

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              202

                              224

                              2 042

            C.   Minimum additional information to be provided for each product
      The minimum additional information which should be provided for each product sampled is specified in points 1 to 10. Member States are invited to provide more detailed information.

            1.
            French fries, sold as ready-to-eat: sampling twice a year in March and November (2), resulting in the total number of samples specified in the table. Ready-to-eat products should be sampled at small outlets, fast food chains and restaurants. Each year sampling should take place at the same outlets whenever possible.
      Specific information to be provided: starting material fresh potatoes or pre-fabricates, addition of other ingredients.

            2.
            Potato crisps: sampling twice a year in March and November (2), resulting in the total number of samples specified in the table.
      Specific information to be provided: starting material fresh potatoes or pre-fabricates, addition of other ingredients, flavours or additives.

            3.
            Pre-cooked French fries/potato products for home cooking: including products sold frozen. Sampling twice a year in March and November (2), resulting in the total number of samples specified in the table. Analysis of each sample should be carried out on the product after preparation (e.g. frying, baking, etc). The preparation should take place in the laboratory according to the instructions on the label. Specific information to be provided: starting material potatoes or pre-fabricates, addition of other ingredients, product sold fresh or frozen, conditions used for preparation according to the label.

            4.
            Bread: Specific information to be provided: soft or crisp bread, fibre content, type of grain, fermented/not fermented, type of fermentation (e.g. yeast), other ingredients. The choice of the type of bread to be sampled should reflect the eating habits of each country.

            5.
            Breakfast cereals: excluding muesli and porridge. Specific information to be provided: type of grain, other ingredients (e.g. sugar, nuts, honey, chocolate).

            6.
            Biscuits (including infant biscuits): Specific information to be provided: soft or hard, for normal population or for diabetics, full list of ingredients.

            7.
            Roasted coffee: Specific information to be provided: degree of roasting (e.g. medium, dark), type of beans if available, sold as ground coffee or as beans.

            8.
            Jarred baby foods: Potato, root vegetable or cereals containing food should be targeted. Specific information to be provided: composition of the jar.

            9.
            Processed cereal-based baby foods: analysed as sold.
      Specific information to be provided: type of grain, other ingredients.

            10.
            Other products: This category includes potato products, cereal products, coffee products, cocoa products and infant food other than those products specified in one of the categories above (e.g. potato rösti, gingerbread, coffee substitutes). Samples should be chosen to reflect the national dietary habits of the Member States. They may need to be analysed after cooking according to the label. If so, the conditions used should be specified.
      Specific information to be provided: detailed product description (e.g. major ingredients), conditions used for preparation according to the label.

         (1)  In exceptional cases a specific product may only be on the market as imported from a third country. In such cases samples of the imported product can be taken.

         (2)  In case the foodstuff is produced from potato pre-fabricates sampling twice a year is not necessary.

      ANNEX II
      A.   Reporting format

      B.   Explanatory notes to the reporting format
      Reporting country: Member State in which the monitoring has been carried out.
      Year: year of sampling.
      Sample code: laboratory identification code of the sample.
      Product class number: number of product class according to Annex I, Table 1 (insert figures from 1 to 10, e.g. French fries (1), potato crisps (2), etc.
      Product name: includes the product name in English and the original language.
      Product description: a short product description should be given taking into account at least the information required under Annex I, point C.
      Producer: name of producer if available.
      Country of production: if available. Use ISO codes for the country of production (for ISO Codes see Annex I, Table 1, first column). According to Annex I, point A the sampled product should originate in one of the Member States where this is possible (see footnote 4).
      Best before date: as indicated on the label. Provide the date in the format dd/mm/yy.
      Production date: where available as indicated on the label. Provide the date in the format dd/mm/yy.
      Sampling date: date the sample was taken. Provide the date in the format dd/mm/yy.
      Sampling point: place where the sample was collected, e.g. supermarket, small shop, bakery, fast food chain, etc.
      Pack size: pack size (g) of the product of which the incremental samples were taken where applicable.
      Sample weight: sample weight (g) of the aggregate sample.
      Preparation conditions: preparation conditions should be specified in the case of pre-cooked French fries or other potato products for home cooking (product class 3) which should be sampled and analysed after cooking. The cooking instructions of the label should be followed and specified in this field. The same might apply to some ‘other products’ (product class 10).
      Date of analysis: if the sample was homogenised and stored before analysis the date of the actual start of the analytical procedure should be given. Details should be given about storage conditions in this case.
      Method accredited: please indicate with ‘Y’ (yes) or ‘N’ (no) if the analytical result has been generated by a method accredited according to EN ISO 17025.
      Analytical method: please indicate which analytical method has been used (GC-MS with derivatisation, GC-MS without derivatisation, LC-MS-MS or other) and give a short description of the sample preparation (e.g. clean-up procedure, etc.).
      Details on proficiency tests: please give information on the organiser of the proficiency test, the number of the scheme, the number of the round, the matrix and the z-score (1) achieved in the following short format: organiser/scheme/round/matrix/z-score. (Example: FAPAS/30/6/crispbread/1,6).
      Acrylamide level: in μg/kg corrected for recovery.
      Limit of detection: in μg/kg.
      Limit of quantification: in μg/kg.
      Measurement uncertainty: if available, please provide information on the measurement uncertainty (range to be given in %).

         (1)  Please note that the z-scores will only be used to judge the quality of the data. They will be kept confidential.


title: Recommendation for a COUNCIL REGULATION on the conclusion of the Agreements in the form of exchanges of letters between the European Economic Community and Barbados, the People's Republic of the Congo, Fiji, the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, Jamaica, the Republic of Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Madagascar, the Republic of Malawi, Mauritius, the Republic of Suriname, the Kingdom of Swaziland, the United Republic of Tanzania, Trinidad and Tobago, the Republic of Uganda, and the Republic of India, on guaranteed prices for cane sugar for 1980/81#Recommendation for a COUNCIL REGULATION fixing the guaranteed prices applicable for cane sugar originating in the overseas countries and territories (OCT) for 1980/81 (submitted to the Council by the Commission)

text:
ARCHIVES HISTORIQUES
DE LA COMMISSION
COLLECTION RELIEE DES
DOCUMENTS "COM"
COM (80) 630
Vol. 1980/0200
 ---pagebreak--- Disclaimer
Conformément au règlement (CEE, Euratom) n° 354/83 du Conseil du 1er février 1983
concernant l'ouverture au public des archives historiques de la Communauté économique
européenne et de la Communauté européenne de l'énergie atomique (JO L 43 du 15.2.1983,
p. 1), tel que modifié par le règlement (CE, Euratom) n° 1700/2003 du 22 septembre 2003
(JO L 243 du 27.9.2003, p. 1), ce dossier est ouvert au public. Le cas échéant, les documents
classifiés présents dans ce dossier ont été déclassifiés conformément à l'article 5 dudit
règlement.
In accordance with Council Regulation (EEC, Euratom) No 354/83 of 1 February 1983
concerning the opening to the public of the historical archives of the European Economic
Community and the European Atomic Energy Community (OJ L 43, 15.2.1983, p. 1), as
amended by Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1700/2003 of 22 September 2003 (OJ L 243,
27.9.2003, p. 1), this file is open to the public. Where necessary, classified documents in this
file have been declassified in conformity with Article 5 of the aforementioned regulation.
In Übereinstimmung mit der Verordnung (EWG, Euratom) Nr. 354/83 des Rates vom 1.
Februar 1983 über die Freigabe der historischen Archive der Europäischen
Wirtschaftsgemeinschaft und der Europäischen Atomgemeinschaft (ABI. L 43 vom 15.2.1983,
S. 1), geändert durch die Verordnung (EG, Euratom) Nr. 1700/2003 vom 22. September 2003
(ABI. L 243 vom 27.9.2003, S. 1), ist diese Datei der Öffentlichkeit zugänglich. Soweit
erforderlich, wurden die Verschlusssachen in dieser Datei in Übereinstimmung mit Artikel 5
der genannten Verordnung freigegeben.
 ---pagebreak---  COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES
                                                             COM(80 > 630 finaL
                                                             Brussels . 28 October 1980
                                                                /f
                                                                r-
                                                                                ^
                                                                                :
                                                                                -X
                                                                                v ,> >v°S ■ v A
                                                                                - :         \<
                                                                                ϊ-~
                                                                Γ *      < · ·. ·
                                                                Γ-' "\    "
                                  Recommendation for a
                                     COUNCIL REGULATION
       on the conclusion of the Agreements in the form of, exchanges of
       letters between the European Economic Community and Barbados , the
                  <                                        ,                      -   S
       People 's Republic of the Congo , Fiji , the Cooperative Republic of
       Guyana, Jamaica, the Republic of Kenya, the Democratic Republic
       of Madagascar , the Republic of Malawi , Mauritius , the Republic of
     • Suriname , the Kingdom of Swaziland, the United Republic of Tanzania ,
       Trinidad and Tobago , the Republic of Uganda , and the Republic of
       India , on guaranteed prices for cane sugar for 1980 / 81
                                    Recommendation for a
                                      COUNCIL REGULATION
                                                                                /
       fixing the guaranteed prices applicable for cane sugar originating
       in the overseas countries and territories                  ( OCT )         for 1980 / 81
                    ( submitted to the Council by the Commission )
           ^                                               p..,
                                                                                i
COM(80 ) 630 final
    Ύ"Τ ΙΓ ! /-         -ί-'Γ .,)–I    ΙΤίΙΓί Τ"!"» ΐί Λ ι     π ίίΤ'ΐ Γ-'».ΤΙΜΉ Η;            Ι
 ---pagebreak---                                     EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM
1.(a ) By Decision of the Council , the Commission was authorized to enter
         into negotiations on the guaranteed prices for cane sugar for
         1980/ 81 with the States referred to in Article 3 of the Protocol on
         ACP sugar annexed to the ACP-EEC Convention of Lome , the Republic of
         Suri name and with the Republic of India .      The results of those
         negotiations have to be approved by the relevant authorities of the
         Community and the countries referred to above .       The Commission .
         redommends to the Council that the results be embodied in agreements
         in the form of exchanges of letters between the Community on the one
         hand and each of the ACP States concerned and the Republic of India
         oh the other according to the annexed drafts .
 - ( b ) According to the Declaration XXI annexed to the Final Act of the
         ACP-EEC Convention of Lome , the Community undertook to ensure for
         sugar originating in certain overseas countries and territories
         ( OCT ) the same treatment as provided for in the Protocol on ACP
         sugar .   The Commission recommends that the Council fix for sugar
         originating in the countries specified by the said Declaration the
         same guaranteed prices for - 1 980/81 as those agreed with the ACP .
         States .      .          -                       -
2 . ANNEXES :      I. Recommendation for a Council Regulation concerning the
                       conclusion of the Agreements in the form of exchanges of
                       letters on the guaranteed prices for cane sugar for
                       1980/ 81 between the European Economic Community and
                       Barbados , the People 's Republic of the Congo , Fiji , the
                       Republic of Guyana , Jamaica , the Republic of Kenya , the
                       Democratic Republic of Madagascar , the Republic of
                       Malawi , Mauritius , the Republic of Suriname , the Kingdom
                       of Swaziland , the United Republic of Tanzania , Trinidad
                       and Tobago , the Republic of Uganda and the Republic of
                       India .                              .      '
            -     II . Draft exchanges of letters .              ;   :
                 III . Recoranendation for a Council Regulation fixing the-
                       guaranteed prices applicable for cane sugar originating
                       in the overseas countries and territories ( OCT ) for
                         1980/ 81 .
 ---pagebreak--- Financial implications
The financial implications have been taken into account in the
framework of the financial implications of the agricultural prices for
1980 / 81 and of the draft budget proposals for 1 98 1 .
 ---pagebreak---                                                                      ANNEX  I
                                 Recommendation for a
                                  COUNCIL REGULATION .
on the conclusion of the Agreements in the form of exchanges of letters
between the European Economic Community and Barbados , the People 's
Republic of the Congo , Fiji , the Cooperative Republic of Guyana , Jamaica ,
the Republic of Kenya , the Democratic Republic of Madagascar , the Republic
of Malawi , Mauritius , the Republic of Suriname , the Kingdom of Swaziland ,
the United Republic of Tanzania , Trinidad and Tobago , the Republic of
Uganda , and         the Republic of India , on      guaranteed prices for cane
sugar for 1980/ 81                                                   ' .
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ,
Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community , :
and in particular Article 113 thereof ,
Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission ,
 i                                                           *
whereas the Protocol on ACP sugar annexed to the ACP-EEC Convention of
Lome ( 1 ) and the Agreement between the European Economic Community and
the Republic of India on cane sugar ( 2 ) . are implemented in the context of
the management of the common- organization of the sugar market ;
Whereas it is appropriate to approve the Agreements in the form of
exchanges of letters between the European Economic Community and the
States referred to in                  ' the Protocol on ACP sugar*    the '
Republic of Suriname < and          the Republic of India , on the guaranteed
prices fcr cane sugar for 1 980/ 81 ,
HAS ADOPTED THIS REGULATION
                                      Article 1
The Agreements in the form of exchanges of letters between the European
Economic Community and Barbados , the People 's Republic of the Congo , Fiji ,
the Cooperative Republic of Guyana / Jamaica , the Republic of Kenya , the
Democratic Republic of Madagascar , the Republic of Malawi , Mauritius , the
Republic of Suriname , the Kingdom of Swaziland , the United Republic of
Tanzania , Trinidad and Tobago , the Republic of Uganda , on the guaranteed
prices for cane sugar for 1980 /81 , and the Agreement in the form of an
exchange of letters between the European Economic Community and the
Republic of India on the guaranteed prices for cane sugar for 1980/ 81 , are
hereby approved on behalf of the Community .
 ( 1 ) 0J No L 25 , 30.1.1976 , p. 1
 ( 2 ) 0J No L 190 , 23.7.1975 , p. 36
 ---pagebreak---                                    - 2 -
The texts of these Agreements are annexed to this Regulation .
                                 Article 2
The President of the Council is hereby authorized to designate the person
empowered to sign the fgrqements referred to in Article 1 in order to bind
the Community .          –
                       /
                                 Article 3
This Regulation shall enter into force on the day following its
publication in the Official Journal of the European Communities .
This Regulation shall be binding in its entirety and directly applicable
in all Member States .
Done at                                          For the Council
                                                 The President
 ---pagebreak---                                                                     ANNE',? ' II
                                       AGREEMENT                       .
in the form of exchanges of letters between the European Economic
Community and Barbados , the People 's Republic of the Congo , Fiji , the
Cooperative Republic of Guyana , Jamaica , the Republic of Kenya-, the
Democratic Republic of Madagascar , the Republic of Malawi , Mauritius , the
Republic of Suriname , the Kingdom of Swaziland , the United Republic of
Tanzania', Trinidad and Tobago and the Republic of Uganda , on the
guaranteed prices for cane sugar for 1 980/81 .
                                      Letter No 1                        •
                                                    .    Brussels ,
Sir ,                                          -
1 . The representatives of the ACP States referred to in the Protocol oh
     ACP sugar annexed to the ACP-EEC Convention of Lome , the republic of
     Suriname , and of the Commission , on behalf of the European Economic
     Community , have agreed within the framework of the negotiations
     provided for in Article 5(4 ) of the said Protocol , the following :
     For- the period 1 July 1980 to 30 June 1981 the guaranteed prices
     referred to in Article 5(4 ) of the Protocol shall , for the purpose of
     intervention within the terms of Article 6 of the Protocol , be
                                                      1-
     ( a ), for raw sugar , 35.89 ECU per 100 kilograms ,
   . ( b) for white sugar ," 14.48 ECU per 100 kilograms ,
     These prices , which represent an increase of 5.16 ? over those of the
     preceding year ,- shall refer to sugar of standard quality as defined in
     Community legislation , unpacked , c.i.f .; European ports of the
     Community .       -         -
2 . Although retroactivity is not provided for in respect of the 1980 /81
     prices it is agreed that this year 's decision does not prejudice the
     position of the ACP States in relation to retroactivity in any future
     negotiation in accordance with Article 4(3 ) of the Protocol on ACP
     sugar annexed to the ACP-EEC Convention of Lome .
 ---pagebreak---                                       - 2 -
3 . It was no ted 'that despite the concern expressed by the ACP States the
    previous year over the burden of freight charges the Council of
    Ministers of the Community had not authorized the inclusion of any
    factor in respect of freight charges in the determination of the
    guaranteed prices for the delivery period 1 980 / 81 . The ACP States
    explained that this cost had risen by almost 60% since last year , thus
    constituting an important factor , and requested that the Community
    should give serious consideration to the possibility of alleviating the
    effect of these charges on the ACP States .   The Community , while
    reiterating that Article 5(4 ) set the guaranteed price at the c.i.f .
    stage , recognized the ACP States' concern at the increasing levels of
    freight rates and undertook to reconsider the ACP request .
I should be obliged if you vbuid acknowledge receipt of this letter and
confirm that this letter and your reply constitute an Agreement between
the - Governments of the above-mentioned ACP States and the Community .
Please accept , Sir . the assurance of my highest consideration .
                                                     For the Council
                                             of the European Communities
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 3 -
                                    Letter No 2
                                                   Brussels ,
Sir ,
                      »
I have the honour to acknowledge receipt of your letter of today which
reads as follows :                                 .  .
91                               ff
I have the honour to confirm the agreement of the Governments of the ACP
States referred to in this letter with the foregoing .
Please accept , Sir , the assurance of my highest consideration .
                                                   For the Governments
                                                              1
 ---pagebreak---                                        - 4 -
                                     AGREEMENT
      in the form of an exchange of letters between the European Economic
    Community and the Republic of India on the guaranteed prices for cane
                                 sugar for 1980 / 81
                                    Letter No 1
                                                     Brussels
Sir ,
1 . The representatives of the Republic of India and of the Commission , on
    behalf of the European Economic Community , have agreed within the
    framework of the negotiations provided for in Article 5(4 ) of the
    Agreement between the European Economic Community and the Republic of
    india on cane sugar , the following :
    For the period 1 July 1980 to 30 June 1981 the guaranteed prices
    referred to in Article 5(4 ) of the Agreement shall , for the purpose of
    intervention within the terms of Article 6 of the Agreement , be
    ( a ) for raw sugar , 35.89 ECU per 100 kilograms ,
    ( b ) for white sugar , 44.48 ECU per 100 kilograms .
    These prices , which represent an increase of 5.16% over those of the
    preceding year , . shall refer to sugar of standard quality as defined in
    Community legislation , unpacked , c.i.f ., European ports of the
    Coranunity .
2 . Although retroactivity is not provided for in respect of the 1 980 / 8 1
    prices it is agreed that this year 's decision does not prejudice the
    position of the Republic of India in relation to retroactivity in any
    future negotiation in accordance with Article 4(3 ) of the Agreement on
    cane sugar .
3 . It was noted that despite the concern expressed by the Republic of
    India the previous year over the burden of freight charges the Council
    of Ministers of the Community had not authorized the inclusion of any
    factor in respect of freight charges in the determination of the
    guaranteed prices for the delivery period 1 980 / 8 1 . The Republic of
    India . explained that this cost had risen by almost 60? since last year ,
    thus constituting an important factor , and requested that the Community
 ---pagebreak---    should give sarious consideration to the possibility of alleviating the
   effect of these charges on the Republic of India . The Community , while
   reiterating that Article 5(4 ) set the guaranteed price at the c.i.f .
   stage , recognized the concern of the Republic of India at the
   increasing levels of freight rates and undertook to reconsider the
   request of the Republic of India .
I should be obliged if you would acknowledge receipt of this letter and
confirm that this letter and your reply constitute an Agreement between
your Government and 'the Community .
Please accept , Sir , the assurance of my highest consideration .
                                                   For the Council '
                                            of the European Communities
 ---pagebreak---                                   Letter No 2
                                                   Brussels ,
Sir ,
I have the honour to acknowledge receipt of your letter of today which
reads as follows :
II               ^ #             "
                                                                   i
I have the honour to confirm the agreement of my Government with the
foregoing .
Please accept , Sir , the assurance of my highest consideration .
                                                   For the Government
                                                of the Republic of India
 ---pagebreak---                                                                       ANNEX III
                                  Recommendation for a
                                   COUNCIL REGULATION /
      fixing the guaranteed prices applicable for cane sugar originating in
            the overseas countries and territories ( OCT ) for 1980 /81
THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES ,
Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Economic Community ,
and in particular Article 136 thereof ,
Having regard to the recommendation from the Commission ,
Whereas , in accordance with the terms of Annex XXI to the Final Act of the
ACP-EEC Convention of Lome ( 1 )^ the Community guarantees , for cane sugar
originating in the overseas countries and territories mentioned in the -
said Annex , the same treatment as provided for in the Protocol on ACP
                  *                             '
sugar annexed to the said Convention ;
Whereas Council Decision 76 /568 /EEC of 29 June 1976 on the association of
the overseas countries and territories with the European Economic
Community ( 2 ), as last amended by Council Decision 80/ 162/EECC3 ) , puts
this principle into effect ; whereas under Article 4(4 ) of Annex IV to
that Decision the guaranteed prices are fixed .annually ;
                    • ' ' *                        .  '      ,          .
Whereas the guaranteed prices valid for 1980 /81 for cane sugar originating
in the ACP States have been fixed by Agreements in the form of exchanges
of letters with the relevant ACP States ; whereas it is therefdre necessary for
the Council to fix the same guaranteed prices for cane sugar originating
in the overseas countries and ■ territories concerned ,
HAS ADOPTED THIS REGULATION :
                                         Article 1
For the period 1 July 19&0 to 31 June 1 98 1 the guaranteed prices referred
to in Article 1(4 ) of Annex IV to Decision 76 /568 /EEC shall be as follows : .
 ( a ) for raw sugar , 35.89 ECU per 100 kilograms ;
 ( b ) for white sugar , M4.18 ECU per 100 kilograms .
 (1 ) 0J No L 25 » 30 .1 . 1976 , p.   1
 ( 2 ) 0J No L 176 , 1.7.1976 , p.- 8
 ( 3 ) 0J No , L 35 , 12.2.1980 , p. 26
 ---pagebreak---                                     - 2 -
These prices shall refer to sugar of standard quality as defined in
Community rules , unpacked and cif European ports in the Community .
                                  Article 2
This Regulation shall enter into force on the day following     that of its
                                                                     *
publication in the Official Journal of the European Communities .
It shall apply with effect from 1 July 1980 .
This Regulation shall be binding in its entirety and directly applicable
in all Member States .
Done at                                           For the CoMntil
                                                  The President


Important legal notice

|

52005SC0145

Recommendation for a Council opinion in accordance with the third paragraph of Art. 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 On the updated stability programme of Germany, 2004-2008  /* SEC/2005/0145 final */

	Brussels, 2.2.2005SEC(2005) 145 finalRecommendation for aCOUNCIL OPINIONin accordance with the third paragraph of Art. 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 On the updated stability programme of Germany, 2004-2008(presented by the Commission)EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUMCouncil Regulation (EC) No. 1466/97 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies[1] stipulates that participating Member States, that is, those which have adopted the single currency, had to submit stability programmes to the Council and the Commission by 1 March 1999. In accordance with Article 5 of this Regulation, the Council had to examine each stability programme based on assessments prepared by the Commission and the Committee set up by Article 114 of the Treaty (the Economic and Financial Committee). On the basis of a recommendation from the Commission and after having consulted the Economic and Financial Committee, the Council delivered an opinion, following its examination of the programme. According to the Regulation, Member States need to submit annual updates of their stability programmes, which may also be examined by the Council in accordance with these same procedures.The Commission initiated the Excessive Deficit Procedure for Germany on 19 November 2002 and the Council decided on 21 January 2003 that an excessive deficit existed in Germany. At the same time, the Council recommended to Germany to bring the situation of an excessive deficit to an end in 2004 at the latest. Following the Council conclusions of 25 November 2003 and the decision of the European Court of Justice of 13 July 2004, the Commission, in its Communication of 14 December 2004[2] addressed to the Council, concluded that 2005 should be considered the relevant deadline for the correction of the excessive deficit. The Commission also concluded that action taken by Germany appeared to be broadly consistent with a correction of the excessive deficit by 2005 and that no further steps were necessary at that point under the excessive deficit procedure. The Commission noted, however, that if failures in implementing the envisaged correction measures should emerge at a later stage, it would have to recommend to the Council to enhance the budgetary surveillance and to take the necessary action within the provisions of the Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact. The presidency conclusions of the Ecofin Council of 18 January 2005 confirmed this position. Germany re-affirmed its commitment to take all necessary measures to bring its deficit below 3% of GDP in 2005 and to keep it below 3% in 2006.The first stability programme of Germany, covering the period 1998-2002 was submitted on 4 January 1999 and assessed by the Council on 15 March 1999[3]. Updates were presented every following year. Germany submitted the most recent update of its stability programme on 1 December 2004. The Commission services have carried out a technical evaluation of this update, taking into account the results of the Commission services Autumn 2004 economic forecasts, and having regard to the code of conduct[4], the commonly agreed methodology for the estimation of potential output and cyclically-adjusted balances, the recommendations in the broad economic policy guidelines for the period 2003-2005 and the principles laid down in the Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament of 27 November 2002 on strengthening the coordination of budgetary policies[5]. This evaluation warrants the following assessment:-  The German cabinet adopted the update of the German stability programme on 1 December 2004. It covers the period from 2004 to 2008. The programme complies broadly with the data requirements of the “Code of Conduct on the content and format of stability and convergence programmes”. Deficiencies relate to (i) the information on external assumptions, (ii) the mixing of incompatible data (policy effects are compared sometimes to a baseline unknown to the reader, and sometimes to 2004 as the reference year); (iii) the presentation of rounded figures for key data. However, improvements are noted in terms of details e.g. in using ESA 95 as a consistent statistical framework in the parts on the macro-economic scenario and the budgetary projections.-  The macro-economic scenario underlying the programme projects real GDP growth at 1.7 % for 2005, practically unchanged from an expected rate of 1.8 % in 2004. Adjusted for substantial calendar effects, the figures imply an acceleration of growth by ¾ pp in 2005. In the final three years covered by the programme, growth is expected to remain flat at 2 % p.a. According to Commission services calculations applying the commonly agreed methodology to the figures of the programme, real GDP growth would be somewhat higher than potential, which is estimated to average 1½ % over the period 2004-2008. The output gap would however remain negative until 2008. For the year 2005, the projections of the Commission services are slightly less favourable than those of the programme and downward risks have increased since the Commission services autumn forecast. While real GDP growth projections of the update carry some downward risk for 2005, they appear plausible for the remaining years. However, the GDP deflator underlying the forecast appears to be somewhat high and may imply an overestimation of tax revenues towards the end of the programme period.-  As in previous updates, the medium-term budgetary strategy aims at a balance between structural reforms, budgetary consolidation and cyclical stabilisation. The programme aims at reducing the general government deficit to below 3 % of GDP in 2005 and at ensuring a continuous decline in the following years. The deficit is projected to be reduced from 3.7 % of GDP in 2004 to 2.9 % of GDP in 2005, and thereafter to decline steadily by ½ percentage point of GDP per year to 1½ % of GDP in 2008. Compared to the previous programme, the current update follows almost the same path of adjustments, although delayed by one year, on the basis of a slightly weaker growth scenario. The primary balance is projected to swing from a deficit of ½ % of GDP in 2004 to a surplus of 2 % of GDP in 2008. According to Commission services calculations based on the projections of the programme and the commonly agreed methodology, the cyclically-adjusted balance would also improve by 0.6 pp in 2005, but only by 0.3 pp annually in 2007 and 2008 to reach -1.3 % of GDP in 2008. A close-to-balance budgetary position would therefore not be reached by the final year of the programme.-  As far as it is possible to judge on the basis of current information, the measures announced by the German authorities in November 2004 should be sufficient to reduce the deficit to 2.9% of GDP in 2005, compared with the deficit projected at 3.4% by the Commission services autumn forecast of October 2004. However, this is subject to two main risks: First, growth may be lower than expected. Second, expenditure on social transfers may be higher for reasons other than unexpectedly low growth. Also, the most important one-off measure to reduce the deficit remains subject to a decision by Eurostat. In the years after 2005, the budgetary situation remains vulnerable, although the general government deficit is likely to stay below 3 % of GDP. The budgetary stance laid out in the update seems insufficient to ensure that the Stability and Growth Pact’s medium-term objective of a budgetary position close to balance or in surplus is achieved. In view of the improvement in the cyclically-adjusted balance towards the end of the programme period by less than 0.5 pp, the adjustment projected in the update is quite small, despite the implementation of remarkable structural reforms likely to reduce medium-term expenditures. Moreover, the path of budgetary adjustment seems rather optimistic towards the programme horizon, in particular as regards the expected surpluses of the social security system. Furthermore, tax revenues seem to be estimated somewhat favourably from 2006 on. It should also be noted that the one-off measures taken in November 2004 to bring the deficit below 3 % of GDP in 2005 weaken to some extent the budgetary position towards the end of the programme period and beyond. Also in view of this risk assessment, the budgetary stance in the programme does not seem to provide a sufficient safety margin against breaching the 3 % deficit threshold with normal macroeconomic fluctuations before 2008.-  The debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain above 60 % of GDP throughout the period covered by the programme. After increasing by 6 pp between 2001 and 2004 to 65½ % of GDP, it is projected to fall to 65 % of GDP by 2008. The projected path for the debt is subject to the same risks as for the deficit ratio: any slippage in the latter would delay the reduction of the debt ratio as from 2007.-  The update reviews the important structural reforms implemented in the labour market as part of the “Agenda 2010” package, and in the public pension and health care systems. These reforms are the main reason for the decline of monetary transfers by 2 % of GDP and of government final consumption by 1½ pp between 2004 and 2008. In 2005, a new social benefit scheme is being introduced, which strengthens the incentives for the unemployed to look for jobs while not fully removing the unemployment trap for low-paid work from the tax-benefit system. The sustainability of the public pension system was reinforced by linking pensions and the contribution rate to demographic developments. Incentives for later retirement were partially strengthened and the portability of supplementary pension schemes improved. The reforms in the health care sector led to substantial expenditure relief in 2004. However, they will only partly contain future spending pressures.-  Germany appears to be in a relatively favourable position with regard to long-term sustainability of the public finances, of which the projected budgetary cost of an ageing population is an important element. However, long-term sustainability hinges crucially on the achievement of the planned budgetary consolidation in the medium-term. The already legislated structural reforms and in particular the pension reform is likely to reduce the budgetary impact of ageing. However, the exonerating budgetary impact of the ongoing reforms is subject to considerable uncertainty, and the update concedes that further measures are needed to contain notably health-related expenditures.-  Overall, the economic policies outlined in the 2004 update are partly consistent with the country-specific broad economic policy guidelines in the area of public finances. In particular, no reduction of the cyclically-adjusted deficit occurred in 2004. The planned medium-term adjustment in the cyclically adjusted balance from 2007 onwards is below ½ pp of GDP and, moreover, subject to risks. It will not lead to a close-to-balance budgetary position over the period covered by the programme. This is despite the fact that Germany has implemented important structural reforms, notably concerning the labour market and pension systems, which put the country in a better position to face the consequences of an ageing population. It remains crucial for Germany to succeed in moving to higher trajectories of actual and potential growth by mobilising its underutilised employment reserves.-  In view of the above assessment, it would be appropriate for Germany to (i) do the necessary to ensure the correction of the excessive deficit in 2005; (ii) to implement budgetary adjustments in the years beyond 2005 that will allow a budgetary position of close to balance to be achieved by the end of the programme period; and (iii) continue with structural reforms in order to further improve the long-term sustainability of public finances, in particular as regards the health care system.* * *Based on this assessment, the Commission has adopted the attached recommendation for a Council Opinion on the updated stability programme of Germany and is forwarding it to the Council.Recommendation for aCOUNCIL OPINIONin accordance with the third paragraph of Art. 5 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 On the updated stability programme of Germany, 2004-2008THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,Having regard to the Treaty establishing the European Community,Having regard to Council regulation (EC) No. 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies[6], and in particular Article 5(3) thereof,Having regard to the recommendation of the Commission,After consulting the Economic and Financial Committee,HAS DELIVERED THIS OPINION:On [ 17 February 2005] the Council examined the updated stability programme of Germany, which covers the period 2004-2008. The programme complies broadly with the data requirements of the revised “code of conduct on the content and format of stability and convergence programmes”. The programme uses mostly rounded figures, mixes incompatible data and provides insufficient information on exogenous assumptions. Accordingly, Germany is invited to achieve compliance with the data requirements.The macro-economic scenario underlying the programme projects real GDP growth at 1.7 % for 2005, practically unchanged from an expected rate of 1.8 % in 2004. Adjusted for substantial calendar effects, the figures imply, however, an acceleration of growth by ¾ pp in 2005. In the final three years covered by the programme, growth is expected to remain flat at 2 % p.a. From the current perspective, this scenario appears plausible, although the growth forecast for 2005 appears rather favourable. The programme’s projections for inflation are deemed to be on the high side.On 21 January 2003, the Council decided that an excessive deficit existed in Germany and recommended that this be corrected by 2004 at the latest. However, for reasons detailed in the Communication from the Commission to the Council and the European Parliament on ‘the situation of Germany and France in relation to their obligation under the excessive deficit procedure following the judgement of the Court of Justice’ adopted on 14 December 2004[7], the Commission concluded that 2005 should be considered the relevant deadline for the correction of the excessive deficit since the Council conclusions of November 2003 had produced legal effects until annulled by the Court. In line with this Communication, the primary aim of the budgetary strategy of the programme is to bring the deficit below 3% of GDP by 2005. The programme also targets a continuous decline in the general government deficit in the subsequent years. The deficit is projected to decline steadily by ½ percentage point of GDP per year as from 2005 to reach a level of a rounded 1½ % of GDP in 2008. According to Commission calculations based on the projections of the programme and the commonly agreed methodology, the cyclically-adjusted deficit would narrow by slightly less than ½ pp as from 2005, to around 1 % of GDP in 2008. As in previous updates, the medium-term budgetary strategy aims at a balance of structural reforms, budgetary consolidation and cyclical stabilisation.Based on current information, the measures announced by the German authorities in November 2004 should be sufficient to reduce the deficit to 2.9% of GDP in 2005, compared with the deficit projected at 3.4% by the Commission services autumn forecast of October 2004. The budgetary situation remains vulnerable. Correction of the excessive deficit requires effective full implementation of all the measures envisaged, and of additional measures in case of adverse developments that could jeopardise the target of a deficit below 3 % of GDP in 2005. In the years after 2005, the budgetary outcome could be worse than projected in the programme, although the general government deficit is likely to remain below 3 % of GDP. In view of the improvement in the cyclically-adjusted balance towards the end of the programme period by less than 0.5 pp, the adjustment projected in the update is quite small, despite the implementation of remarkable structural reforms likely to reduce medium-term expenditures. Moreover, the path of budgetary adjustment seems rather optimistic towards the programme horizon. In addition, the one-off measures announced in November 2004 to bring the deficit below 3 % of GDP in 2005 weaken to some extent the budgetary situation towards the end of the programme period and beyond.In view of this risk assessment, the budgetary stance in the programme does not seem to provide a sufficient safety margin against breaching the 3% deficit threshold with normal macroeconomic fluctuations before 2008; nor is sufficient to ensure that the Stability and Growth Pact’s medium-term objective of a budgetary position of close to balance is achieved within the programme period.The debt ratio is estimated to have reached 65½ % of GDP in 2004, above the 60 % of GDP Treaty reference value. The programme projects the debt ratio to rise to 66 % in 2005 and 2006 and to decline from 2007 onwards to 65 % of GDP in 2008. However, the evolution of the debt ratio is likely to be less favourable than projected, given the risks to the budgetary targets mentioned above.Germany appears to be in a relatively favourable position with regard to the long-term sustainability of its public finances, in spite of important projected budgetary cost of an ageing population. However, long-term sustainability hinges crucially on the achievement of the planned budgetary consolidation in the medium-term. The already legislated structural reforms of “Agenda 2010” and in particular the pension reform is likely to reduce the budgetary impact of ageing, although the expenditure-reducing effect of the ongoing reforms is subject to considerable uncertainty, in particular for health care.The economic policies outlined in the 2004 update are partly consistent with the country-specific broad economic policy guidelines in the area of public finances. In particular, no reduction of the cyclically-adjusted deficit has occurred in 2004. In addition, the planned medium-term adjustment in the cyclically adjusted balance from 2007 onwards is below ½ pp of GDP and, moreover, subject to risks. It will not lead to a close-to-balance budgetary position over the period covered by the programme. This is despite the fact that Germany has implemented important structural reforms, notably concerning the labour market and pension systems that put the country in a better position to face the consequences of an ageing population. It remains crucial for Germany to succeed in moving to higher trajectories of actual and potential growth by mobilising its underutilised employment reserves.* * *In view of the above assessment, the Council is of the opinion that Germany should:do the necessary to ensure the correction of the excessive deficit in 2005;to implement budgetary adjustments in the years beyond 2005 that will allow a budgetary position of close to balance to be achieved by the end of the programme period; andcontinue with structural reforms in order to further improve the long-term sustainability of public finances in particular as regards the health care system.Comparison of key macroeconomic and budgetary projections2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |Real GDP (% change) | SP Dec 2004 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1 ¾ | 2 | 2 |COM Oct 2004 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -- | -- |SP Jan 2004 | 1.7 | 2 ¼ | 2 ¼ | 2 ¼ | -- |HICP inflation (%) | SP Dec 2004 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |COM Oct 2004 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | -- | -- |SP Jan 2004 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |General government balance (% of GDP) | SP Dec 2004 | -3 ¾ | -2.9 | -2 ½ | -2 | -1 ½ |COM Oct 2004 | -3.9 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -- | -- |SP Jan 2004 | -3 ¼ | -2 ½ | -2 | -1 ½ | -- |Primary balance (% of GDP) | SP Dec 2004 | - ½ | 0 | ½ | 1 ½ | 2 |COM Oct 2004 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 0.5 | -- | -- |SP Jan 2004 | - ¼ | ½ | 1 | 1 ½ | -- |Cyclically-adjusted balance (% of GDP) | SP Dec 20041 | -3.0 | -2.4 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.3 |COM Oct 2004 | -3.4 | -2.4 | -2.1 | -- | -- |SP Jan 20041 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -1.6 | -1.4 | -- |Government gross debt (% of GDP) | SP Dec 2004 | 65 ½ | 66 | 66 | 65 ½ | 65 |COM Oct 2004 | 65.9 | 66.7 | 67.1 | -- | -- |SP Jan 2004 | 65 | 65 ½ | 65 ½ | 65 | -- |Note: 1Commission services calculations on the basis of the information in the programme Sources: Stability programme (SP); Commission services autumn 2004 economic forecasts (COM) adjusted to include the additional budgetary package presented in November, cf: Communication from the Commission to the Council: “The situation of Germany and France in relation to their obligations under the excessive deficit procedure following the judgement of the Court of Justice”, 14 December 2004, COM(2004) 813; Commission services calculations |[1] OJ L 209, 2.8.1997. All the documents referred to in this text can be found at the following website: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm.[2] COM(2004) 813, 14.12.2004.[3] OJ C 124, 5.5.1999.[4] Revised Opinion of the Economic and Financial Committee on the content and format of stability and convergence programmes, endorsed by the Ecofin Council on 10.7.2001.[5] COM(2002) 668 final, 27.11.2002.[6] OJ L 209, 2.8.1997. All the documents referred to in this text can be found at the following website:http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/about/activities/sgp/main_en.htm.[7] COM(2004) 813, 14.12.2004.