               EUROPEAN COMMISSION
            Brussels, 2.6.2021
            COM(2021) 522 final
            Recommendation for a
            COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
            delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Portugal
            {SWD(2021) 501 final}

               Recommendation for a

               COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION

               delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Portugal

               THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,

               Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,

               Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies
                  1
               , and in particular Article 5(2) thereof,

               Having regard to the Recommendation of the European Commission,

               Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,

               After consulting the Economic and Financial Committee,

               Whereas:

               (1)On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a Communication on the activation of the general escape clause
                  2
                of the Stability and Growth Pact.
                  3
                In its Communication, the Commission set out its view that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, the conditions to activate the general escape clause were met. On 23 March 2020, the Ministers of Finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. The general escape clause has granted Member States budgetary flexibility to deal with the crisis. It has facilitated the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. Its activation allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective of each Member State, provided this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. On 17 September 2020, in its Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, the Commission announced that the general escape clause would remain active in 2021.
                  4

               (2)On 20 July 2020, the Council recommended Portugal
                  5
                to take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause, to effectively address the pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. It also recommended Portugal to pursue, when economic conditions allow, fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment.

               (3)The Council Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area indicates that fiscal policies remain supportive in all euro area Member States throughout 2021 and that policy measures should be tailored to country-specific circumstances and be timely, temporary and targeted.
                  6
                When the epidemiological and economic conditions allow, emergency measures should be phased out, while combatting the social and labour-market impact of the crisis. Fiscal policies should be pursued that are aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Member States should pursue reforms that strengthen the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               (4)On 18 November 2020, the Commission adopted its Opinions on the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans of the euro area Member States, which were based on a qualitative assessment of the fiscal measures. The Commission was of the opinion that the Draft Budgetary Plan of Portugal was overall in line with the fiscal policy recommendations adopted by the Council on 20 July 2020, and that most of the measures included in the plan supported economic activity against the background of considerable uncertainty.

               (5)Next Generation EU, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility, will ensure a sustainable, inclusive and fair recovery. Regulation (EU) 2021/241 establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility
                  7
                came into force on 19 February 2021. This Facility will provide financial support for the implementation of reforms and investment, entailing a fiscal impulse financed by the EU. It will contribute to the economic recovery, to the implementation of sustainable and growth-enhancing reforms and investments, notably to promote the green and digital transitions, and it will strengthen the economies’ resilience and potential growth. In turn, it will also help public finances to return to more favourable positions in the near term and will contribute to strengthening sustainable public finances, growth, and job creation in the medium and long term.

               (6)On 3 March 2021, the Commission adopted a Communication providing further policy orientations to facilitate the coordination of fiscal policies and the preparation of Member States’ Stability and Convergence Programmes.
                  8
                The overall fiscal stance, taking into account national budgets and the Recovery and Resilience Facility, should remain supportive in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, given the expectation of economic activity gradually normalising in the second half of 2021, Member States’ fiscal policies should become more differentiated in 2022. Member States’ fiscal policies should take into account the state of the recovery, fiscal sustainability and the need to reduce economic, social and territorial divergences. In view of the need to support a sustainable recovery for the EU, Member States with low sustainability risks should gear their budgets towards maintaining a supportive fiscal policy in 2022, taking into account the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Member States with high debt levels should pursue prudent fiscal policies, while preserving nationally financed investment and making use of grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility to fund additional high-quality investment projects and structural reforms. For the period beyond 2022, fiscal policies should continue to take into account the strength of the recovery, the degree of economic uncertainty and fiscal sustainability considerations. A refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions, including by phasing out support measures in due course, will contribute to ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

               (7)The Communication of 3 March 2021 also announced the Commission’s view that the decision on the deactivation or continued application of the general escape clause should be taken as an overall assessment of the state of the economy, with the level of economic activity in the EU or euro area compared to pre-crisis levels (end-2019) as a key quantitative criterion. On the basis of the Commission 2021 spring forecast, on 2 June the Commission considered that the conditions to continue to apply the general escape clause in 2022 and to deactivate it as of 2023 were met. Country-specific situations will continue to be taken into account after the deactivation of the general escape clause.
                  9

               (8)On 30 April 2021, Portugal submitted its 2021 Stability Programme, in line with Article 4 of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.

               (9)In 2020, based on data validated by Eurostat, Portugal’s general government deficit was 5.7% of GDP, while general government debt increased to 133.6% of GDP. The annual change in the primary budget balance amounted to -6% of GDP, including discretionary budgetary measures of about 3% of GDP in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. Portugal also provided liquidity support to companies and households (such as guarantees and tax deferrals, which do not have a direct and immediate budgetary impact), estimated at close to 4% of GDP.

               On 2 June 2021, the Commission issued a report under Article 126(3) TFEU. This report discusses the budgetary situation of Portugal, as its general government deficit in 2020 exceeded the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value, while its general government debt exceeded the 60% of GDP Treaty reference value and did not diminish at a satisfactory pace. The report concluded that the deficit criterion was not fulfilled, and the debt criterion was not complied with.

               (10)The macroeconomic scenario underpinning the budgetary projections is realistic in 2021 and 2022. According to the Stability Programme, real GDP is projected to expand by 4% in 2021 and 4.9% in 2022. This is in line with the Commission 2021 spring forecast. Risks to the macroeconomic outlook remain tilted to the downside, due to Portugal’s high reliance on foreign tourism, where uncertainty on the path of its recovery remains high.

               (11)In its 2021 Stability Programme, the government plans a decrease of the general government deficit from 5.7% of GDP in 2020 to 4.5% of GDP in 2021, while the debt ratio is planned to decrease to 128% of GDP. According to the programme, the change of the primary budget balance in 2021 compared with the pre-crisis level (2019) is set to amount to -5% of GDP, reflecting discretionary budgetary measures of about 3% of GDP in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. These projections are in line with the Commission 2021 spring forecast.

               (12)In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the related economic downturn, Portugal has adopted budgetary measures to strengthen the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. This forceful policy response has cushioned the contraction in GDP, which, in turn, curtailed the increase in government deficit and public debt. Fiscal measures should maximise support to the recovery without pre-empting future fiscal trajectories. Therefore, measures should avoid creating a permanent burden on public finances. When Member States introduce permanent measures, they should properly fund them to ensure budgetary neutrality in the medium term. The measures taken by Portugal in 2020 and 2021 have been in line with the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020. Some of the discretionary measures adopted by the government in 2020 and 2021 do not appear to be temporary or matched by offsetting measures. Beyond the horizon of the Commission’s forecast, in 2023, the remaining impact of those non-temporary measures is preliminarily estimated at around 1% of GDP, mainly consisting of additional spending on public wages. Those non-temporary measures also include investment of approximately ⅒% of GDP, which is expected to support medium-term potential growth, and thus sustainability.

               (13)The 2021 Stability Programme assumes investment and reforms financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility amounting to 0.3% of GDP in 2021, 1.3% of GDP in 2022, 1.5% of GDP in 2023, 1.3% of GDP in 2024, and 1.1% of GDP in 2025. The programme also assumes loans under the Recovery and Resilience Facility amounting to 0.7% of GDP in 2021, 0.2% of GDP in 2022, and 0.1% of GDP every year in the period 2023-2025. The Commission’s spring forecast includes these grants in its budgetary projections.

               (14)The established indicators of fiscal adjustment set out in Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 need to be considered in the context of the current circumstances. First, there is significant uncertainty surrounding output gap estimates. Second, there is a need for fiscal policy to stand ready to rapidly adapt to the evolution of the pandemic, shifting from emergency relief to more targeted measures once health risks diminish. Third, the current context is characterised by a significant policy response to support economic activity. In the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility), the established indicators do not capture the full impulse provided by fiscal policies to the economy. Against this background, the structural balance does not appear adequate in the current circumstances. The expenditure benchmark, in turn, needs to be adapted
                  10
                and complemented with additional information in order to fully gauge the fiscal policy orientation.

               First, similarly to the approach pursued in the assessment of the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans, temporary emergency measures have been excluded from the expenditure aggregate. These crisis-related temporary emergency measures support health systems and compensate workers and firms for the losses in income due to lockdowns and supply chain disruptions; their reversal by the public authorities is contingent on the return of the public health and economic situation to normality.

               Second, to assess the overall fiscal stance at the current juncture, the sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility) should be included in the relevant expenditure aggregate.

               Therefore, the fiscal stance is then measured by the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) including expenditure financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds.

               Going beyond the overall fiscal stance, the analysis also aims at assessing whether national fiscal policy is prudent and its composition is conducive to a sustainable recovery consistent with the green and digital transitions. For that reason, particular attention is paid to the evolution of nationally financed primary current expenditure and investment.

               (15)In its 2021 Stability Programme, Portugal’s general government deficit is planned to decrease to 3.2% of GDP in 2022, mainly due to a discontinuation of the temporary support measures adopted in 2020 and 2021, as well as to the expected economic rebound. The general government debt ratio is planned to decrease to 123% of GDP in 2022. These projections are in line with the Commission 2021 spring forecast.

               Based on the Commission’s forecast, the overall fiscal stance as defined above – also including the impact on aggregate demand in 2022 from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at -1.1% of GDP.
                  11
                The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to increase by 0.1 percentage points of GDP. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 0.2 percentage points of GDP.
                  12
                Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 0.7 percentage points of GDP.

               (16)The quality of Member States’ budgetary measures appears particularly important. Fiscal structural reforms aimed at improving the composition of national budgets can support potential growth, create much-needed fiscal space and help ensuring fiscal sustainability over the longer term, including in view of climate change and health challenges. On the revenue side, the COVID-19 crisis has reinforced the importance of reforms for more efficient and fairer public revenue systems. On the expenditure side, it has made it even more crucial to increase the level and quality of sustainable and growth-enhancing investments, consistent with serving the objectives of enhancing growth potential, economic and social resilience and the green and digital twin transition. The Recovery and Resilience Plans will allow to improve the composition of national budgets.

               (17)According to the programme’s medium-term budgetary plans, the general government deficit is planned to decrease from 2.2% of GDP in 2023 to 1.6% of GDP in 2024. The general government deficit is thus planned to no longer exceed 3% of GDP in 2023.

               Based on the programme, the overall fiscal stance – also including the impact on aggregate demand from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at 0.3% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 on average. The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to remain unchanged. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 0.1 percentage points of GDP.
                  13
                Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.3 percentage points of GDP.

               The current estimate of the 10-year average nominal potential growth is 3%.
                  14
                However, this estimate does not include the impact of the reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost Portugal’s potential growth.

               (18)The general government debt ratio is planned to decrease from 120.7% of GDP in 2023 to 117.1% of GDP in 2024. In light of the high debt ratio, which is projected to gradually fall over time, Portugal is considered to face high fiscal sustainability risks over the medium term, as per the latest debt sustainability analysis.
                  15

               (19)In view of the currently still exceptionally high degree of uncertainty, the fiscal policy guidance should remain predominantly qualitative. More precise quantified guidance for the later years should be provided in 2022, if the degree of uncertainty has sufficiently declined by then.

               The Council has assessed the 2021 Stability Programme and the follow-up by Portugal to the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020.

               HEREBY RECOMMENDS PORTUGAL TO:

               1.In 2022, use the Recovery and Resilience Facility to finance additional investment in support of the recovery while pursuing a prudent fiscal policy. Preserve nationally financed investment. Limit the growth of nationally financed current expenditure.

               2.When economic conditions allow, pursue a fiscal policy aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term. At the same time, enhance investment to boost growth potential.

               3.Pay particular attention to the composition of public finances, both on the revenue and expenditure sides of the budget, and to the quality of budgetary measures, to ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery. Prioritise sustainable and growth-enhancing investment, notably supporting the green and digital transition. Give priority to fiscal-structural reforms that will help provide financing for public policy priorities and contribute to the long-term sustainability of public finances, including by strengthening the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               Done at Brussels,

                     For the Council

                     The President

                     (1)

                        OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

                     (2)

                        The clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Regulation (EC) 1467/97, facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn.

                     (3)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, Brussels, 20.3.2020, COM(2020) 123 final.

                     (4)

                        Communication from the Commission on Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy 2021, Brussels, 17.9.2020, COM(2020) 575 final.

                     (5)

                        Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the National Reform Programme of Portugal and delivering a Council Opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Portugal, OJ C 282, 26.8.2020, p. 142-148.

                     (6)

                        Pending final adoption by the Council, after endorsement by the European Council. The text agreed by the Eurogroup on 16 December 2020 is available at: https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14356-2020-INIT/en/pdf

                     (7)

                     OJ
                      L57, 18.2.2021, p.17.

                     (8)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on one year since the outbreak of COVID-19: fiscal policy response, Brussels, 3.3.2021, COM(2021) 105 final.

                     (9)

                        Communication from the Commission on Economic policy coordination in 2021: overcoming COVID-19, supporting the recovery and modernising our economy, Brussels, 2.6.2021, COM(2021)500 final.

                     (10)

                        In particular, the four-year smoothing of investment used in the expenditure benchmark does not allow assessing properly the fiscal support to the recovery provided by nationally financed investments.

                     (11)

                        A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.

                     (12)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 0.1 percentage points of GDP.

                     (13)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.2 percentage points of GDP.

                     (14)

                        Estimated by the Commission, following the commonly agreed methodology.

                     (15)

                        See Commission Staff Working Document – Statistical Annex providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes.


               EUROPEAN COMMISSION
            Brussels, 2.6.2021
            COM(2021) 505 final
            Recommendation for a
            COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
            delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Germany
            {SWD(2021) 501 final}

               Recommendation for a

               COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION

               delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Germany

               THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,

               Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,

               Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies
                  1
               , and in particular Article 5(2) thereof,

               Having regard to the Recommendation of the European Commission,

               Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,

               After consulting the Economic and Financial Committee,

               Whereas:

               (1)On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a Communication on the activation of the general escape clause
                  2
                of the Stability and Growth Pact.
                  3
                In its Communication, the Commission set out its view that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, the conditions to activate the general escape clause were met. On 23 March 2020, the Ministers of Finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. The general escape clause has granted Member States budgetary flexibility to deal with the crisis. It has facilitated the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. Its activation allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective of each Member State, provided this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. On 17 September 2020, in its Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, the Commission announced that the general escape clause would remain active in 2021.
                  4

               (2)On 20 July 2020, the Council recommended Germany
                  5
                to take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause, to effectively address the pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. It also recommended Germany to pursue, when economic conditions allow, fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment.

               (3)The Council Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area of indicates that fiscal policies remain supportive in all euro area Member States throughout 2021 and that policy measures should be tailored to country-specific circumstances and be timely, temporary and targeted.
                  6
                When the epidemiological and economic conditions allow, emergency measures should be phased out, while combatting the social and labour-market impact of the crisis. Fiscal policies should be pursued that are aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Member States should pursue reforms that strengthen the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               (4)On 18 November 2020, the Commission adopted its Opinions on the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans of the euro area Member States, which were based on a qualitative assessment of the fiscal measures. The Commission was of the opinion that the Draft Budgetary Plan of Germany was overall in line with the fiscal policy recommendations adopted by the Council on 20 July 2020, and that most of the measures included in the plan supported economic activity against the background of considerable uncertainty.

               (5)Next Generation EU, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility, will ensure a sustainable, inclusive and fair recovery. Regulation (EU) 2021/241 establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility
                  7
                came into force on 19 February 2021. This Facility will provide financial support for the implementation of reforms and investment, entailing a fiscal impulse financed by the EU. It will contribute to the economic recovery, to the implementation of sustainable and growth-enhancing reforms and investment, notably to promote the green and digital transitions, and it will strengthen the economies’ resilience and potential growth. In turn, it will also help public finances to return to more favourable positions in the near term and will contribute to strengthening sustainable public finances, growth and job creation in the medium and long term.

               (6)On 3 March 2021, the Commission adopted a Communication providing further policy orientations to facilitate the coordination of fiscal policies and the preparation of Member States’ Stability and Convergence Programmes.
                  8
                The overall fiscal stance, taking into account national budgets and the Recovery and Resilience Facility, should remain supportive in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, given the expectation of economic activity gradually normalising in the second half of 2021, Member States’ fiscal policies should become more differentiated in 2022. Member States’ fiscal policies should take into account the state of the recovery, fiscal sustainability and the need to reduce economic, social and territorial divergences. In view of the need to support a sustainable recovery for the EU, Member States with low sustainability risks should gear their budgets towards maintaining a supportive fiscal policy in 2022, taking into account the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Member States with high debt levels should pursue prudent fiscal policies, while preserving nationally financed investment and making use of grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility to fund additional high-quality investment projects and structural reforms. For the period beyond 2022, fiscal policies should continue to take into account the strength of the recovery, the degree of economic uncertainty and fiscal sustainability considerations. A refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions, including by phasing out support measures in due course, will contribute to ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

               (7)The Communication of 3 March 2021 also announced the Commission’s view that the decision on the deactivation or continued application of the general escape clause should be taken as an overall assessment of the state of the economy, with the level of economic activity in the EU or euro area compared to pre-crisis levels (end-2019) as key quantitative criterion. On the basis of the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast, on 2 June the Commission considered that the conditions to continue to apply the general escape clause in 2022 and to deactivate it as of 2023 were met. Country-specific situations will continue to be taken into account after the deactivation of the general escape clause.
                  9

               (8)On 27 April 2021, Germany submitted its 2021 Stability Programme, in line with Article 4 of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.

               (9)In 2020, based on data validated by Eurostat, Germany’s general government deficit was 4.2% of GDP, while general government debt increased to 69.8% of GDP. The annual change in the primary budget balance amounted to -5.9% of GDP, including discretionary budgetary measures of -3½% of GDP in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. Germany also provided liquidity support to companies and households (such as guarantees and tax deferrals, which do not have a direct and immediate budgetary impact) estimated at 25% of GDP.

               On 2 June 2021, the Commission issued a report under Article 126(3) TFEU. This report discusses the budgetary situation of Germany, as its general government deficit in 2020 exceeded the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value, while its general government debt exceeded the 60% of GDP Treaty reference value and did not diminish at a satisfactory pace. The report concluded that the deficit criterion was not fulfilled and the debt criterion was not complied with.

               (10)The macroeconomic scenario underpinning the budgetary projections is realistic in 2021 and cautious in 2022. The German Stability Programme projects the real GDP growth of 3.0% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022, compared to the Commission 2021 spring forecast projections of 3.4% and 4.1% respectively. The difference stems from the expectation by the authorities of a more anticipated recovery in private consumption, but less vigorous export growth in 2021. For 2022, the Commission forecast is driven by a delayed, but strong rebound in consumption. Projections in the Stability Programme assume a return to the pre-crisis level of output in the course of 2022, while employment and private consumption are expected to take somewhat longer to recover.

               (11)In its 2021 Stability Programme, the government plans an increase in the general government deficit from 4.2% of GDP in 2020 to 9% of GDP in 2021, while the debt ratio is planned to further increase to 74½% of GDP in 2021. According to the programme, the change in the primary budget balance in 2021 compared with the pre-crisis level (2019) is set to amount to -10.6% of GDP, reflecting the discretionary budgetary measures of 6¼% of GDP in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. In its 2021 spring forecast, the Commission expects a lower budgetary impact of the measures to fight the pandemic and support the economy, projecting a lower deficit than in the Stability Programme, at 7.5% of GDP in 2021 with a debt ratio of 73.1% of GDP.

               (12)In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic downturn, Germany has adopted budgetary measures to strengthen the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. This forceful policy response has cushioned the contraction in GDP, which, in turn, curtailed the increase in government deficit and public debt. Fiscal measures should maximise support to the recovery without pre-empting future fiscal trajectories. Therefore, measures should avoid creating a permanent burden on public finances. When Member States introduce permanent measures, they should properly fund them to ensure budgetary neutrality in the medium term. The measures taken by Germany in 2020 and 2021 have been in line with the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020. Some of the discretionary measures adopted by the government in 2020 and 2021 do not appear to be temporary or matched by offsetting measures. Beyond the horizon of the Commission’s forecast, in 2023, the remaining impact of those non-temporary measures is preliminarily estimated at around 1% of GDP. Those non-temporary measures also include investment of approximately ⅒% of GDP, which is expected to support medium-term potential growth, and thus sustainability.

               (13)The 2021 Stability Programme assumes investment and reforms financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility amounting to 0.03% of GDP in 2020, 0.3% in 2021, 0.1% in 2022, 0.1% in 2023, 0.1% in 2024, 0.1% in 2025, and 0.04% in 2026. The Commission’s spring forecast includes these grants in its budgetary projections.

               (14)The established indicators of fiscal adjustment set out in Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 need to be considered in the context of the current circumstances. First, there is significant uncertainty surrounding output gap estimates. Second, there is a need for fiscal policy to stand ready to rapidly adapt to the evolution of the pandemic, shifting from emergency relief to more targeted measures once health risks diminish. Third, the current context is characterised by a significant policy response to support economic activity. In the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility), the established indicators do not capture the full impulse provided by fiscal policies to the economy. Against this background, the structural balance does not appear adequate in the current circumstances. The expenditure benchmark, in turn, needs to be adapted
                  10
                and complemented with additional information in order to fully gauge the fiscal policy orientation.

               First, similarly to the approach pursed in the assessment of the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans, temporary emergency measures have been excluded from the expenditure aggregate. These crisis-related temporary emergency measures support health systems and compensate workers and firms for the losses in income due to lockdowns and supply chain disruptions; their reversal by the public authorities is contingent on the return of the public health and economic situation to normality.

               Second, to assess the overall fiscal stance at the current juncture, the sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility) should be included in the relevant expenditure aggregate.

               Therefore, the fiscal stance is then measured by the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) including expenditure financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds.

               Going beyond the overall fiscal stance, the analysis also aims at assessing whether national fiscal policy is prudent and its composition is conducive to a sustainable recovery consistent with the green and digital transitions. For that reason, particular attention is paid to the evolution of nationally financed primary current expenditure and investment.

               (15)In its 2021 Stability Programme, Germany’s general government deficit is planned to decrease to 3% of GDP in 2022, mainly due to a discontinuation of the temporary support measures adopted in 2020 and 2021. The general government debt ratio is planned to decrease to 74% of GDP in 2022. These projections are in line with the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast.

               Based on the Commission’s forecast, the overall fiscal stance as defined above – also including the impact on aggregate demand in 2022 from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at +0.5% of GDP
                  11
               . The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage point of GDP. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 0.2 percentage points of GDP.
                  12
                Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.3 percentage points of GDP.

               (16)The quality of Member States’ budgetary measures appears particularly important. Fiscal structural reforms aimed at improving the composition of national budgets can support potential growth, create much-needed fiscal space and help ensuring fiscal sustainability over the longer term, including in view of climate change and health challenges. On the revenue side, the COVID-19 crisis has reinforced the importance of reforms for more efficient and fairer public revenue systems. On the expenditure side, it has made even more crucial to increase the level and quality of sustainable and growth-enhancing investments, consistent with serving the objectives of enhancing growth potential, economic and social resilience and the green and digital twin transition. The Recovery and Resilience Plans will allow to improve the composition of national budgets.

               (17)According to the programme’s medium-term budgetary plans, the general government deficit is planned to decrease from 1½% in 2023, to ½% of GDP in 2024, reaching a balanced budget of 0% of GDP in 2025.

               Based on the programme, the overall fiscal stance – also including the impact on aggregate demand from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at +0.9% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 on average. The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to remain unchanged. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide a neutral contribution.
                  13
                Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.7 percentage points of GDP.

               The current estimate of the 10-year average nominal potential growth is 2¾%.
                  14
                However, this estimate does not include the impact of the reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost Germany’s potential growth.

               (18)The general government debt ratio is planned to decrease from 73¼% of GDP in 2023 to 72% of GDP in 2024. Germany is considered to face low fiscal sustainability risks over the medium term, as per the latest debt sustainability analysis.
                  15

               (19)In view of the currently still exceptionally high degree of uncertainty, the fiscal policy guidance should remain predominantly qualitative. More precise quantified guidance for the later years should be provided in 2022, if the degree of uncertainty has sufficiently declined by then.

               The Council has assessed the 2021 Stability Programme and the follow-up by Germany to the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020.

               HEREBY RECOMMENDS GERMANY TO:

               1.In 2022, maintain a supportive fiscal stance, including the impulse provided by the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and preserve nationally financed investment.

               2.When economic conditions allow, pursue a fiscal policy aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term. At the same time, enhance investment to boost growth potential.

               3.Pay particular attention to the composition of public finances, both on the revenue and expenditure sides of the budget, and to the quality of budgetary measures, to ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery. Prioritise sustainable and growth-enhancing investment, notably supporting the green and digital transition. Give priority to fiscal structural reforms that will help provide financing for public policy priorities and contribute to the long-term sustainability of public finances, including by strengthening the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               Done at Brussels,

                     For the Council

                     The President

                     (1)

                        OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

                     (2)

                        The clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Regulation (EC) 1467/97, facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn.

                     (3)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on the activation of the general escape clause of   the Stability and Growth Pact, Brussels, 20.3.2020, COM(2020) 123 final.

                     (4)

                        Communication from the Commission on Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy 2021, Brussels, 17.9.2020, COM(2020) 575 final.

                     (5)

                        Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the National Reform Programme of Germany and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Germany, OJ C 282, 26.8.2020, p. 27.

                     (6)

                        Pending final adoption by the Council, after endorsement by the European Council. The text agreed by the Eurogroup on 16 December 2020 is available at:
                  https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14356-2020-INIT/en/pdf

                     (7)

                  OJ
                   L57, 18.2.2021, p.17.

                     (8)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on one year since the outbreak of COVID-19: fiscal policy response, Brussels, 3.3.2021, COM(2021) 105 final.

                     (9)

                        Communication from the Commission on Economic policy coordination in 2021: overcoming COVID-19, supporting the recovery and modernising our economy, Brussels, 2.6.2021, COM(2021)500 final.

                     (10)

                        In particular, the 4-year smoothing of investment used in the expenditure benchmark does not allow assessing properly the fiscal support to the recovery provided by nationally financed investments.

                     (11)

                        A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.

                     (12)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.2 percentage points of GDP.

                     (13)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.1 percentage point of GDP.

                     (14)

                        Estimated by the Commission, following the commonly agreed methodology.

                     (15)

                        See Commission Staff Working Document – Statistical Annex providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes.


               EUROPEAN COMMISSION
            Brussels, 2.6.2021
            COM(2021) 506 final
            Recommendation for a
            COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
            delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Estonia
            {SWD(2021) 501 final}

               Recommendation for a

               COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION

               delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Estonia

               THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,

               Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,

               Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies
                  1
               , and in particular: Article 5(2) thereof,

               Having regard to the Recommendation of the European Commission,

               Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,

               After consulting the Economic and Financial Committee,

               Whereas:

               (1)On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a Communication on the activation of the general escape clause
                  2
                of the Stability and Growth Pact.
                  3
                In its Communication, the Commission set out its view that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, the conditions to activate the general escape clause were met. On 23 March 2020, the Ministers of Finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. The general escape clause has granted Member States budgetary flexibility to deal with the crisis. It has facilitated the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. Its activation allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective of each Member State, provided this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. On 17 September 2020, in its Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, the Commission announced that the general escape clause would remain active in 2021.
                  4

               (2)On 20 July 2020, the Council recommended Estonia
                  5
                to take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause, to effectively address the pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. It also recommended Estonia to pursue, when economic conditions allow, fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment.

               (3)The Council Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area indicated that fiscal policies remain supportive in all euro area Member States throughout 2021 and that policy measures should be tailored to country-specific circumstances and be timely, temporary and targeted
                  6
               . When the epidemiological and economic conditions allow, emergency measures should be phased out, while combatting the social and labour-market impact of the crisis. Fiscal policies should be pursued that are aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Member States should pursue reforms that strengthen the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               (4)On 18 November 2020, the Commission adopted its Opinions on the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans of the euro area Member States, which were based on a qualitative assessment of the fiscal measures. The Commission was of the opinion that the Draft Budgetary Plan of Estonia was overall in line with the fiscal policy recommendations adopted by the Council on 20 July 2020, and that most of the measures included in the plan supported economic activity against the background of considerable uncertainty.

               (5)Next Generation EU, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility, will ensure a sustainable, inclusive and fair recovery. Regulation (EU) 2021/241 establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility
                  7
                came into force on 19 February 2021.This Facility will provide financial support for the implementation of reforms and investment, entailing a fiscal impulse financed by the EU. It will contribute to the economic recovery, to the implementation of sustainable and growth-enhancing reforms and investment, notably to promote the green and digital transitions and it will strengthen the economies’ resilience and potential growth. In turn, it will also help public finances to return to more favourable positions in the near term and will contribute to strengthening sustainable public finances, growth and job creation in the medium and long term.

               (6)On 3 March 2021, the Commission adopted a Communication providing further policy orientations to facilitate the coordination of fiscal policies and the preparation of Member States’ Stability and Convergence Programmes.
                  8
                The overall fiscal stance, taking into account national budgets and the Recovery and Resilience Facility, should remain supportive in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, given the expectation of economic activity gradually normalising in the second half of 2021, Member States’ fiscal policies should become more differentiated in 2022. Member States’ fiscal policies should take into account the state of the recovery, fiscal sustainability and the need to reduce economic, social and territorial divergences. In view of the need to support a sustainable recovery for the EU, Member States with low sustainability risks should gear their budgets towards maintaining a supportive fiscal policy in 2022, taking into account the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Member States with high debt levels should pursue prudent fiscal policies, while preserving nationally financed investment and making use of grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility to fund additional high-quality investment projects and structural reforms. For the period beyond 2022, fiscal policies should continue to take into account the strength of the recovery, the degree of economic uncertainty and fiscal sustainability considerations. A refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions, including by phasing out support measures in due course, will contribute to ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

               (7)The Communication of 3 March 2021 also announced the Commission’s view that the decision on the deactivation or continued application of the general escape clause should be taken as an overall assessment of the state of the economy, with the level of economic activity in the EU or euro area compared to pre-crisis levels (end-2019) as key quantitative criterion. On the basis of the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast, on 2 June the Commission considered that the conditions to continue to apply the general escape clause in 2022 and to deactivate it as of 2023 were met. Country-specific situations will continue to be taken into account after the deactivation of the general escape clause.
                  9

               (8)On 30 April 2021, Estonia submitted its 2021 Stability Programme, in line with Article 4 of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.

               (9)In 2020, based on data validated by Eurostat, Estonia’s general government deficit was 4.9% of GDP, while general government debt increased to 18.2% of GDP. The annual change in the primary budget balance amounted to -4.7% of GDP, including discretionary budgetary measures of 2.7%
                  10
                in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. Estonia also provided liquidity support to companies and households (such as guarantees and tax deferrals, which do not have a direct and immediate budgetary impact) estimated at 1.5% of GDP.

               On 2 June 2021, the Commission issued a report under Article 126(3) TFEU. This report discusses the budgetary situation of Estonia, as its general government deficit in 2020 exceeded the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value. The report concluded that the deficit criterion was not fulfilled.

               (10)The macroeconomic scenario underpinning the budgetary projections is realistic in 2021 and 2022. According to the Stability Programme, real GDP growth is projected to be 2.5% in 2021 and 4.8% in 2022. This is in line with the Commission 2021 spring forecast, which shows real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2021 and 5.0% in 2022.

               (11)In its 2021 Stability Programme, the government plans an increase in the general government deficit from 4.9% of GDP in 2020 to 6% of GDP in 2021, while the debt ratio is planned to increase to 21.4% of GDP in 2021. According to the programme, the change in the primary budget balance in 2021 compared with the pre-crisis level (2019) is set to amount to 6.3% of GDP, reflecting the discretionary budgetary measures of 3.3% of GDP taken over 2020 and 2021 in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. These projections are in line with the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast.

               (12)In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic downturn, Estonia has adopted budgetary measures to strengthen the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. This forceful policy response has cushioned the contraction in GDP, which, in turn, curtailed the increase in government deficit and public debt. Fiscal measures should maximise support to the recovery without pre-empting future fiscal trajectories. Therefore, measures should avoid creating a permanent burden on public finances. When Member States introduce permanent measures, they should properly fund them to ensure budgetary neutrality in the medium term. The measures taken by Estonia in 2020 and 2021 have been in line with the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020. Some of the discretionary measures adopted by the government in 2020 and 2021 do not appear to be temporary or matched by offsetting measures. Beyond the horizon of the Commission’s forecast, in 2023, the remaining impact of those non-temporary measures is preliminarily estimated at around 1% of GDP, mainly consisting of current expenditures. Those non-temporary measures also include investment of approximately ⅓% of GDP, which is expected to support medium-term potential growth, and thus sustainability.

               (13)The 2021 Stability Programme assumes investment and reforms financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility 0.4% in 2021, 0.5% in 2022, 0.7% in 2023, and 0.7% in 2024. The Commission’s spring forecast includes these grants in its budgetary projections.

               (14)The established indicators of fiscal adjustment set out in Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 need to be considered in the context of the current circumstances. First, there is significant uncertainty surrounding output gap estimates. Second, there is a need for fiscal policy to stand ready to rapidly adapt to the evolution of the pandemic, shifting from emergency relief to more targeted measures once health risks diminish. Third, the current context is characterised by a significant policy response to support economic activity. In the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility), the established indicators do not capture the full impulse provided by fiscal policies to the economy. Against this background, the structural balance does not appear adequate in the current circumstances. The expenditure benchmark, in turn, needs to be adapted
                  11
                and complemented with additional information in order to fully gauge the fiscal policy orientation.

               First, similarly to the approach pursed in the assessment of the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans, temporary emergency measures have been excluded from the expenditure aggregate. These crisis-related temporary emergency measures support health systems and compensate workers and firms for the losses in income due to lockdowns and supply chain disruptions; their reversal by the public authorities is contingent on the return of the public health and economic situation to normality.

               Second, to assess the overall fiscal stance at the current juncture, the sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility) should be included in the relevant expenditure aggregate. Therefore, the fiscal stance is then measured by the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) including expenditure financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds.

               Going beyond the overall fiscal stance, the analysis also aims at assessing whether national fiscal policy is prudent and its composition is conducive to a sustainable recovery consistent with the green and digital transitions. For that reason, particular attention is paid to the evolution of nationally financed primary current expenditure and investment.

               (15)In its 2021 Stability Programme, Estonia’s general government deficit is planned to decrease to 3.8% of GDP in 2022, mainly due to the economic recovery and a discontinuation of the temporary support measures adopted in 2020 and 2021. The general government debt ratio is planned to increase to 24.6% of GDP in 2022. These projections are in line with the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast.

               Based on the Commission’s forecast, overall fiscal stance as defined above – also including the impact on aggregate demand in 2022 from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at +1.6% of GDP
                  12
               . The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to increase by 0.2 percentage points of GDP. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.2 percentage points of GDP
                  13
               . Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 1.7 percentage points of GDP.

               (16)The quality of Member States’ budgetary measures appear particularly important. Fiscal structural reforms aimed at improving the composition of national budgets can support potential growth, create much-needed fiscal space and help ensuring fiscal sustainability over the longer term, including in view of climate change and health challenges. On the revenue side, the COVID-19 crisis has reinforced the importance of reforms for more efficient and fairer public revenue systems. On the expenditure side, it has made even more crucial to increase the level and quality of sustainable and growth-enhancing investments, consistent with serving the objectives of enhancing growth potential, economic and social resilience and the green and digital twin transition. The Recovery and Resilience Plans will allow to improve the composition of national budgets.

               (17)According to the programme’s medium-term budgetary plans, the general government deficit is planned to decrease from 3.2% in 2023 to 2.2% of GDP in 2024. The general government deficit is planned to no longer exceed 3% of GDP in 2024.

               Based on the programme, the overall fiscal stance – also including the impact on aggregate demand from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at 1.1% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 on average. The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage point of GDP. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.4 percentage points of GDP
                  14
               . Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.5 percentage points of GDP.

               The current estimate of the 10-year average nominal potential growth is 5¾%
                  15
               . However, this estimate does not include the impact of the reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost Estonia’s potential growth.

               (18)The general government debt ratio is planned to increase from 27.4% of GDP in 2023 to 28% of GDP in 2024. Estonia is considered to face low fiscal sustainability risks over the medium term, as per the latest debt sustainability analysis.
                  16

               (19)In view of the currently still exceptionally high degree of uncertainty, the fiscal policy guidance should remain predominantly qualitative. More precise quantified guidance for the later years should be provided in 2022, if the degree of uncertainty has sufficiently declined by then.

               The Council has assessed the 2021 Stability Programme and the follow-up by Estonia to the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020.

               HEREBY RECOMMENDS ESTONIA TO:

               1.In 2022, maintain a supportive fiscal stance, including the impulse provided by the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and preserve nationally financed investment.

               2.When economic conditions allow, pursue a fiscal policy aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term. At the same time, enhance investment to boost growth potential.

               3.Pay particular attention to the composition of public finances, both on the revenue and expenditure sides of the budget, and to the quality of budgetary measures, to ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery. Prioritise sustainable and growth-enhancing investment, notably supporting the green and digital transition. Give priority to fiscal structural reforms that will help provide financing for public policy priorities and contribute to the long-term sustainability of public finances, including by strengthening the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               Done at Brussels,

                     For the Council

                     The President

                     (1)

                        OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

                     (2)

                        The clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Regulation (EC) 1467/97, facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn.

                     (3)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on the activation of the general escape clause of   the Stability and Growth Pact, Brussels, 20.3.2020, COM(2020) 123 final.

                     (4)

                        Communication from the Commission on Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy 2021, Brussels, 17.9.2020, COM(2020) 575 final.

                     (5)

                        Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the National Reform Programme of the Estonia and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of the Estonia, OJ C 282, 26.8.2020, p. 33.

                     (6)

                        Pending final adoption by the Council, after endorsement by the European Council. The text agreed by the Eurogroup on 16 December 2020 is available at:
                  https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14356-2020-INIT/en/pdf

                     (7)

                  OJ
                   L57, 18.2.2021, p.17.

                     (8)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on one year since the outbreak of COVID-19: fiscal policy response, Brussels, 3.3.2021, COM(2021) 105 final.

                     (9)

                        Communication from the Commission on Economic policy coordination in 2021: overcoming COVID-19, supporting the recovery and modernising our economy, Brussels, 2.6.2021, COM(2021)500 final.

                     (10)

                        The Programme does not include an estimate of the total amount of discretionary budgetary measures.

                     (11)

                        In particular, the 4-year smoothing of investment used in the expenditure benchmark does not allow assessing properly the fiscal support to the recovery provided by nationally financed investments

                     (12)

                        A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.

                     (13)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 0.2 percentage point of GDP.

                     (14)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide a neutral contribution.

                     (15)

                        Estimated by the Commission, following the commonly agreed methodology.

                     (16)

                        See Commission Staff Working Document – Statistical Annex providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes.


               EUROPEAN COMMISSION
            Brussels, 2.6.2021
            COM(2021) 525 final
            Recommendation for a
            COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION
            delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Slovakia
            {SWD(2021) 501 final}

               Recommendation for a

               COUNCIL RECOMMENDATION

               delivering a Council opinion on the 2021 Stability Programme of Slovakia

               THE COUNCIL OF THE EUROPEAN UNION,

               Having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union,

               Having regard to Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies
                  1
               , and in particular Article 5(2) thereof,

               Having regard to the Recommendation of the European Commission,

               Having regard to the resolutions of the European Parliament,

               After consulting the Economic and Financial Committee,

               Whereas:

               (1)On 20 March 2020, the Commission adopted a Communication on the activation of the general escape clause
                  2
                of the Stability and Growth Pact.
                  3
                In its Communication, the Commission set out its view that, given the expected severe economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak, the conditions to activate the general escape clause were met. On 23 March 2020, the Ministers of Finance of the Member States agreed with the assessment of the Commission. The general escape clause has granted Member States budgetary flexibility to deal with the crisis. It has facilitated the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn. Its activation allows for a temporary departure from the adjustment path towards the medium-term budgetary objective of each Member State, provided this does not endanger fiscal sustainability in the medium term. On 17 September 2020, in its Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy, the Commission announced that the general escape clause would remain active in 2021.
                  4

               (2)On 20 July 2020, the Council recommended Slovakia
                  5
                to take all necessary measures, in line with the general escape clause, to effectively address the pandemic, sustain the economy and support the ensuing recovery. It also recommended Slovakia to pursue, when economic conditions allow, fiscal policies aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment.

               (3)The Council Recommendation on the economic policy of the euro area indicated that fiscal policies remain supportive in all euro area Member States throughout 2021 and that policy measures should be tailored to country-specific circumstances and be timely, temporary and targeted.
                  6
                When the epidemiological and economic conditions allow, emergency measures should be phased out, while combatting the social and labour-market impact of the crisis. Fiscal policies should be pursued that are aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring debt sustainability, while enhancing investment. Member States should pursue reforms that strengthen the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               (4)On 18 November 2020, the Commission adopted its Opinions on the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans of the euro area Member States, which were based on a qualitative assessment of the fiscal measures. The Commission was of the opinion that the Draft Budgetary Plan of Slovakia was overall in line with the fiscal policy recommendations adopted by the Council on 20 July 2020, and that most of the measures included in the plans supported economic activity against the background of considerable uncertainty. However, some measures did not appear to be temporary or matched by offsetting measures.

               (5)Next Generation EU, including the Recovery and Resilience Facility, will ensure a sustainable, inclusive and fair recovery. Regulation (EU) 2021/241 establishing the Recovery and Resilience Facility
                  7
                came into force on 19 February 2021. This will provide financial support for the implementation of reforms and investment, entailing a fiscal impulse financed by the EU. It will contribute to the economic recovery, to the implementation of sustainable and growth-enhancing reforms and investment, notably to promote the green and digital transitions, and will strengthen the economies’ resilience and potential growth. In turn, it will also help public finances to return to more favourable positions in the near term and will contribute to strengthening sustainable public finances, growth and job creation in the medium and long term.

               (6)On 3 March 2021, the Commission adopted a Communication providing further policy orientations to facilitate the coordination of fiscal policies and the preparation of Member States’ Stability and Convergence Programmes.
                  8
                The overall fiscal stance, taking into account national budgets and the Recovery and Resilience Facility, should remain supportive in 2021 and 2022. At the same time, given the expectation of economic activity gradually normalising in the second half of 2021, Member States’ fiscal policies should become more differentiated in 2022. Member States’ fiscal policies should take into account the state of the recovery, fiscal sustainability and the need to reduce economic, social and territorial divergences. In view of the need to support a sustainable recovery for the EU, Member States with low sustainability risks should gear their budgets towards maintaining a supportive fiscal policy in 2022, taking into account the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility. Member States with high debt levels should pursue prudent fiscal policies, while preserving nationally-financed investment and making use of grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility to fund additional high-quality investment projects and structural reforms. For the period beyond 2022, fiscal policies should continue to take into account the strength of the recovery, the degree of economic uncertainty and fiscal sustainability considerations. A refocusing of fiscal policies towards achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions, including by phasing out support measures in due course, will contribute to ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term.

               (7)The Communication of 3 March 2021 also announced the Commission’s view that the decision on the deactivation or continued application of the general escape clause should be taken as an overall assessment of the state of the economy, with the level of economic activity in the EU or euro area compared to pre-crisis levels (end-2019) as key quantitative criterion. On the basis of the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast, on 2 June the Commission considered that the conditions to continue to apply the general escape clause in 2022 and to deactivate it as of 2023 were met. Country-specific situations will continue to be taken into account after the deactivation of the general escape clause.
                  9

               (8)On 12 May 2021, Slovakia submitted its 2021 Stability Programme, beyond the deadline established in Article 4 of Regulation (EC) No 1466/97.

               (9)In 2020, based on data validated by Eurostat, Slovakia’s general government deficit was 6.2% of GDP, while general government debt increased to 60.6% of GDP. The annual change in the primary budget balance amounted to -4.8% of GDP, including discretionary budgetary measures of 3.6% in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. Slovakia also provided liquidity support to companies and households (such as guarantees and tax deferrals, which do not have a direct and immediate budgetary impact), estimated at 2.1% of GDP.

               On 2 June 2021, the Commission issued a report under Article 126(3) TFEU. This report discusses the budgetary situation of Slovakia, as its general government deficit in 2020 exceeded the 3% of GDP Treaty reference value, while its general government debt exceeded the 60% of GDP Treaty reference value. The report concluded that the deficit criterion was not fulfilled but the debt criterion was complied with.

               (10)The macroeconomic scenario underpinning the Stability Programme’s budgetary projections is realistic in 2021 and 2022, given the current uncertainty. The 2021 Stability Programme projects real GDP to grow by 3.3% in 2021 and 6.3% in 2022. By comparison, the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast projects a more front-loaded recovery, with real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2021 and 5.2% in 2022.

               (11)In its 2021 Stability Programme, the government plans an increase of the general government deficit from 6.2% of GDP in 2020 to 9.9% of GDP in 2021, while the debt ratio is planned to increase to 64.1% of GDP in 2021. According to the programme, the change in the primary budget balance in 2021 compared with the pre-crisis level (2019) is set to amount to -4.0% of GDP, reflecting the discretionary budgetary measures of 2.3% of GDP in support of the economy and the operation of automatic stabilisers. The planned deficit and debt ratios are higher than those projected by the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast. The Commission forecasts a general government deficit of 6.5% and a debt ratio of 59.5% in 2021. The Commission forecast does not include a provision for pandemic-related expenditure of 2.4 percentage points of GDP, and higher expenditure of state enterprises and of the Social Insurance company, which are both included in the general government, because information was not available at the forecast cut-off date. The Commission forecasts revenues that are 0.2 percentage points of GDP higher and expenditure that is 3.4 percentage points lower than the Stability Programme. The major differences in expenditure are attributed to lower intermediate consumption, lower social payments and lower subsidies assumed in the Commission forecast. The Commission’s lower debt forecast is primarily explained by a lower primary balance (by 3.6 percentage points).

               (12)In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and related economic downturn, Slovakia has adopted budgetary measures to strengthen the capacity of its health system, contain the pandemic and provide relief to those individuals and sectors that have been particularly affected. This forceful policy response has cushioned the contraction in GDP, which, in turn, curtailed the increase in government deficit and public debt. Fiscal measures should maximise support to the recovery without pre-empting future fiscal trajectories. Therefore, measures should avoid creating a permanent burden on public finances. When Member States introduce permanent measures, they should properly fund them to ensure budgetary neutrality in the medium term. The measures taken by Slovakia in 2020 and 2021 have been in line with the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020. However, some of the discretionary measures, adopted by the government in 2020 and 2021, do not appear to be temporary or matched by offsetting measures. Beyond the horizon of the Commission’s forecast, in 2023, the remaining impact of those non-temporary measures is preliminarily estimated at around 1% of GDP, mainly consisting of the reintroduction of Christmas bonuses, changes in the green energy scheme, higher remuneration for military officials, a reduction in the motor vehicles tax, cancellation of bank levy, grants to healthcare facilities and tax credits on children. Those non-temporary measures were only partly compensated by the freezing of the minimum pension and the growth of ministries’ operating costs.

               (13)The 2021 Stability Programme does not include receipts of grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility in the fiscal aggregates. Nonetheless, it assumes investment and reforms financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility amounting to 0.2% of GDP in 2021, 1.1% in 2022 and 1.3% in both 2023 and 2024 in its underpinning macroeconomic scenario. The Commission’s spring forecast includes these grants in its budgetary projections.

               (14)The established indicators of fiscal adjustment set out in Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 need to be considered in the context of the current circumstances. First, there is significant uncertainty surrounding output gap estimates. Second, there is a need for fiscal policy to stand ready to rapidly adapt to the evolution of the pandemic, shifting from emergency relief to more targeted measures once health risks diminish. Third, the current context is characterised by a significant policy response to support economic activity. In the presence of sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility), the established indicators do not capture the full impulse provided by fiscal policies to the economy. Against this background, the structural balance does not appear adequate in the current circumstances. The expenditure benchmark, in turn, needs to be adapted
                  10
                and complemented with additional information in order to fully gauge the fiscal policy orientation.

               First, similarly to the approach pursed in the assessment of the 2021 Draft Budgetary Plans, temporary emergency measures have been excluded from the expenditure aggregate. These crisis-related temporary emergency measures support health systems and compensate workers and firms for the losses in income due to lockdowns and supply chain disruptions; their reversal by the public authorities is contingent on the return of the public health and economic situation to normality.

               Second, to assess the overall fiscal stance at the current juncture, the sizeable transfers from the EU budget (such as those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility) should be included in the relevant expenditure aggregate. Therefore, the fiscal stance is then measured by the change in primary expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures and excluding crisis-related temporary emergency measures) including expenditure financed by grants under the Recovery and Resilience Facility and other EU funds.

               Going beyond the overall fiscal stance, the analysis also aims at assessing whether national fiscal policy is prudent and its composition is conducive to a sustainable recovery consistent with the green and digital transitions. For that reason, particular attention is paid to the evolution of nationally financed primary current expenditure and investment.

               (15)In its 2021 Stability Programme, Slovakia’s general government deficit is planned to decrease to 5.1% of GDP in 2022, mainly due to a discontinuation of the temporary support measures adopted in 2020 and 2021. The general government debt ratio is planned to increase to 65.5% of GDP in 2022. These projections are higher than the Commission’s 2021 spring forecast. The Commission’s forecast assumes smaller COVID-19 measures and a faster drawdown rate of the EU funds in 2022 compared to the Stability Programme.

               Based on the Commission’s forecast, the overall fiscal stance as defined above – also including the impact on aggregate demand in 2022 from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at +0.9% of GDP
                  11
               . The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to increase by 0.8 percentage points of GDP. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 0.7 percentage points of GDP.
                  12
                Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 1.1 percentage points of GDP.

               (16)The quality of Member States’ budgetary measures appear particularly important. Fiscal structural reforms aimed at improving the composition of national budgets can support potential growth, create much-needed fiscal space and help ensuring fiscal sustainability over the longer term, including in view of climate change and health challenges. On the revenue side, the COVID-19 crisis has reinforced the importance of reforms for more efficient and fairer public revenue systems. On the expenditure side, it has made even more crucial to increase the level and quality of sustainable and growth-enhancing investments, consistent with serving the objectives of enhancing growth potential, economic and social resilience and the green and digital twin transition. The Recovery and Resilience Plans will allow improving the composition of national budgets.

               (17)According to the programme’s medium-term budgetary plans, the general government deficit is planned to decrease from 4.1% of GDP in 2023 to 3.8% of GDP in 2024. The general government deficit is planned to exceed 3% of GDP throughout the horizon of the Stability Programme.

               Based on the programme, the overall fiscal stance – also including the impact on aggregate demand from investment financed by both the national and the EU budgets, notably the Recovery and Resilience Facility – is estimated at 0.2% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 on average.
                  13
                The positive contribution of expenditure financed by Recovery and Resilience Facility grants and other EU funds is projected to decrease by 0.3 percentage points of GDP. Nationally financed investment is projected to provide a neutral contribution.
                  14
                Nationally financed primary current expenditure (net of discretionary revenue measures) is projected to provide a contractionary contribution of 1.3 percentage points of GDP.

               The current estimate of the 10-year average nominal potential growth is 4½ %
                  15
               . However, this estimate does not include the impact of the reforms that are part of the Recovery and Resilience Plan and can boost Slovakia’s potential growth.

               (18)The general government debt ratio is planned to increase from 64.6% of GDP in 2023 to 65.8% of GDP in 2024. Slovakia is considered to face medium fiscal sustainability risks over the medium term, as per the latest debt sustainability analysis.
                  16

               (19)In view of the currently still exceptionally high degree of uncertainty, the fiscal policy guidance should remain predominantly qualitative. More precise quantified guidance for the later years should be provided in 2022, if the degree of uncertainty has sufficiently declined by then.

               The Council has assessed the 2021 Stability Programme and the follow-up by Slovakia to the Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020.

               HEREBY RECOMMENDS SLOVAKIA TO:

               1.In 2022, maintain a supportive fiscal stance, including the impulse provided by the Recovery and Resilience Facility, and preserve nationally financed investment.

               2.When economic conditions allow, pursue a fiscal policy aimed at achieving prudent medium-term fiscal positions and ensuring fiscal sustainability in the medium term. At the same time, enhance investment to boost growth potential.

               3.Pay particular attention to the composition of public finances, both on the revenue and expenditure sides of the budget, and to the quality of budgetary measures, to ensure a sustainable and inclusive recovery. Prioritise sustainable and growth-enhancing investment, notably supporting the green and digital transition. Give priority to fiscal structural reforms that will help provide financing for public policy priorities and contribute to the long-term sustainability of public finances, including by strengthening the coverage, adequacy, and sustainability of health and social protection systems for all.

               Done at Brussels,

                     For the Council

                     The President

                     (1)

                        OJ L 209, 2.8.1997, p. 1.

                     (2)

                        The clause, as set out in Articles 5(1), 6(3), 9(1) and 10(3) of Regulation (EC) 1466/97 and Articles 3(5) and 5(2) of Regulation (EC) 1467/97, facilitates the coordination of budgetary policies in times of severe economic downturn.

                     (3)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on the activation of the general escape clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, Brussels, 20.3.2020, COM(2020) 123 final.

                     (4)

                        Communication from the Commission on Annual Sustainable Growth Strategy 2021, Brussels, 17.9.2020, COM(2020) 575 final.

                     (5)

                        Council Recommendation of 20 July 2020 on the National Reform Programme of Slovakia and delivering a Council opinion on the 2020 Stability Programme of Slovakia, OJ C 282, 26.8.2020, p. 164.

                     (6)

                        Pending final adoption by the Council, after endorsement by the European Council. The text agreed by the Eurogroup on 16 December 2020 is available at: https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-14356-2020-INIT/en/pdf

                     (7)

                     OJ
                      L57, 18.2.2021, p.17.

                     (8)

                        Communication from the Commission to the Council on one year since the outbreak of COVID-19: fiscal policy response, Brussels, 3.3.2021, COM(2021) 105 final.

                     (9)

                        Communication from the Commission on Economic policy coordination in 2021: overcoming COVID-19, supporting the recovery and modernising our economy, Brussels, 2.6.2021, COM(2021)500 final.

                     (10)

                        In particular, the 4-year smoothing of investment used in the expenditure benchmark does not allow assessing properly the fiscal support to the recovery provided by nationally financed investments.

                     (11)

                        A negative sign of the indicator corresponds to an excess of the primary expenditure growth compared with medium-term economic growth, which indicates an expansionary fiscal policy.

                     (12)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide a neutral contribution.

                     (13)

                        The figure is estimated at -0.2% of GDP in 2023 and 2024 on average.

                     (14)

                        Other nationally financed capital expenditure is projected to provide an expansionary contribution of 1.6 percentage points of GDP.

                     (15)

                        Estimated by the Commission, following the commonly agreed methodology.

                     (16)

                        See Commission Staff Working Document – Statistical Annex providing background data relevant for the assessment of the 2021 Stability and Convergence Programmes