Background: Nursing education programs in every state must meet specified NCLEX pass rate standards in order to maintain licensure and accreditation. These standards are a source of great anxiety for educators and students. There is wide variety of pass rate standards among the states. In addition, individual nursing program pass rates vary substantially from one year to the next. Objectives: Pass rate variation suggests the need for scrutiny of the accuracy of applying state pass rates as a standard for evaluating nursing education program. This study considers the implications of such variation. Design: The study computes 95% confidence intervals for nursing program pass rates from 2010 to 2014 to determine whether programs that failed to meet pass rate standards may have done so by accident and whether programs that met pass rate standards may have done so by accident. Data: The study data includes statutes and regulations that establish pass rate standards and NCLEX pass rates for 1792 nursing programs reflected in reports provided by state nursing boards. Findings: Almost 20% of nursing education programs violated the state pass rate standard at least once between 2010 and 2014. Among the programs that failed to meet pass rate standards, 28.4% had a 95% confidence interval that extended above the pass rate standard, A determination that these programs did not meet pass rate standards could well be erroneous. Approximately 17.4% of programs that met pass rate standards had confidence intervals that went below the pass rate standard. A finding that these programs complied with state pass rate standards might also be erroneous. Conclusions: Application of confidence intervals to nursing program pass rates suggests that use of pass rate standards to evaluate nursing program quality may not be appropriate. This suggests the need to rethink application of state pass rate standards when evaluating nursing education programs. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.