The rainfall data of Ludhiana for a period of 32 years covering 1981 to 2012 have been collected from School of Climate Change and Agricultural Meteorology. The study was planned to find the rainfall variability and amount of rainfall at different probability levels for the year 1981-2012. The rainfall data was analyzed on weekly basis to work out the initial & conditional probability for rainfall at different levels, i.e., >5 mm, >10 mm, >20 mm, >30 mm, >40 mm and >50 mm using Markov chain model. In addition to this, incomplete gamma distribution was also used to find out the occurrence of rainfall events at different probability levels, i.e., 20, 30, 40, 50, 65 and 75 per cent. The study results in estimation of maximum and minimum initial probability and conditional probability (wet and dry) for standard meteorological week. The results will be useful for deciding the sowing time, irrigation/fertilizer scheduling and harvesting time for different crops. In addition to this study will be useful for determining the runoff volume, peak runoff rate and hence can be used for designing of rainwater harvesting structures.