The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive values of baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone and the rate of thyroid-stimulating hormone change within the euthyroid state on the development of chronic kidney disease. We conducted a longitudinal study in 17,067 Korean adults with normal thyroid function and no history of thyroid disease. Incident chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2). The rate of thyroid-stimulating hormone change was determined by subtracting the baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone level from the thyroid-stimulating hormone level measured at the last visit prior to the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease or at the final visit in subjects without chronic kidney disease, divided by the observation period (years). Subjects were stratified into quintiles according to rates of thyroid-stimulating hormone change. During 86,583 person-years of follow-up (median follow-up 5.2 years), there were 561 incident cases of chronic kidney disease. The risk of incident chronic kidney disease was significantly higher in subjects with rapid increases (quintile 5) or decreases (quintile 1) in thyroid-stimulating hormone levels compared to the reference group (quintile 3). In fully adjusted models, the hazard ratios of quintiles 1 and 5 were 3.15 (95 % confidence interval 2.34 to 4.24; p < 0.001) and 3.37 (95 % confidence interval 2.52 to 4.51; p < 0.001), respectively. However, there was no significant association between baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone and risk of incident chronic kidney disease. The development of chronic kidney disease is associated with the rate of changes in thyroid-stimulating hormone level rather than with baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone levels.