This paper proposes a statistical framework to develop user-adapted spoken dialog systems. The proposed framework integrates two main models. The first model is used to predict the user's intention during the dialog. The second model uses this prediction and the history of dialog up to the current moment to predict the next system response. This prediction is performed with an ensemble-based classifier trained for each of the tasks considered, so that a better selection of the next system can be attained weighting the outputs of these specialized classifiers. The codification of the information and the definition of data structures to store the data supplied by the user throughout the dialog makes the estimation of the models from the training data and practical domains manageable. We describe our proposal and its application and detailed evaluation in a practical spoken dialog system.