It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.