Joe Chrisp is a PhD student at the IPR. His doctoral research is on the feasibility of a universal basic income

Despite the Conservative Party still winning the most seats, the General Election was undoubtedly a seismic event that shook the foundations of how many people understand politics. Yet, there are almost as many people that claim to have the answer to the GE puzzle as there were people who claimed it was a foregone conclusion. By explaining the result people are also attempting to map out a path forwards and predict what it means for politics in the future. With the onward march of basic income worldwide, at least in terms of attention, it is interesting to consider what the election may mean for the future of basic income in the UK. How should advocates view the election result in respect to the political feasibility of basic income?

The Politics of Hope

Is anything possible? The most obvious lesson of the election that should embolden basic income advocates is that the rules of politics as we know it can be flouted. While the EU referendum and the election of Donald Trump to the White House both signalled that politics was changing, most of the political class assumed that anti-establishment politics from the Left was unlikely to have the same appeal. The received wisdom was that due to the overestimation of Labour's vote share in every election since 1983, even the late surge in the polls was unlikely to mean anything other than a comfortable Conservative majority. The fact that a variety of electoral red lines, from economic stimulus to national security, seemed to matter less than expected inevitably opens up the political debate. Is it possible that the public could support universal, unconditional benefits after all? Or at least vote for a party that promised them?

Of course, the causes of Labour's success are near impossible to disentangle and the Conservatives' dreadful campaign should not be ignored. Yet, it would be difficult to argue that big and bold policy proposals in the manifesto, such as abolishing tuition fees, did not have a sizeable impact on Labour's election result. Committing to £48 billion of spending did not have the expected effect on Labour's credibility, and the apparent failure of the 'magic money tree' narrative to deter voters should spell hope for any policy of expansion. The most recent British Social Attitudes Report suggests that support for tax and spend policies is growing.[1] The survey suggests that nearly half the population would support raising tax to fund increased state spending. This was higher than the proportion that prefer the status quo for the first time since 2006. If this election truly marks the end of austerity, it may unlock the funds and the political ambition to launch a new transformative agenda to reshape the welfare state. The return of universalism to the heart of the Labour project – whether on university fees, school meals or in regards to pensions and the winter fuel allowance – also may bode well for basic income or the principles behind it.

The ability of the Labour leadership to bypass most of the party and media's obvious scepticism and sell the manifesto directly to the public is also likely to give hope to advocates that think basic income would be popular if only there was a more prominent sponsor. The increasing influence of new media sources, whatever their reliability, can only help more leftfield policy proposals such as basic income get on the agenda. Advocates may feel that a Select Committee snub is not quite as grave as it might have been in the past[2]. That young people seem to be engaged in politics again also gives credence to the idea that their apathy was based on what was on offer rather than innate disinterest. Basic income could perhaps be part of a wider package to enthuse younger voters back into the fold. From polling on basic income, pensioners (or those who have already secured their own basic income) are generally found to be among the most consistent opponents.[3] Hence, the possibility that the pensioner bloc may be loosening its stranglehold on British electoral politics can only be seen as good news for advocates. The BSA report also suggests that the extent to which the public more broadly view pensioners as deserving of extra funding is on the wane. For the first time in more than 30 years, pensions were found not to be the public's main priority for extra spending on benefits.

An electorate that seems more receptive to expansionary public spending and new avenues for engagement with the public give rise to the idea that the door may be opening. Can basic income attach itself to the new radical politics of hope?

Harsh Reality?

Most of these points are broad indicators that the wind is blowing in a direction that could allow basic income to become mainstream politics. However, zeroing in on some specifics paints quite a different picture.

Firstly, whether free university and the National Education service, free school meals or increasing NHS and school budgets, the universalism of the Labour manifesto was primarily the universalism of public services. This of course does not necessarily pave the way for universal cash benefits. Telling a nurse that hasn't had