Saturday, 25 January 2014
WCS Challenger League Results
The first week of WCS Challenger brackets are complete and here's my look at how the matches went and how they meshed with predictions.  All the America VODs are on NASL 's YouTube page, while ESL's are only available here  (which is unfortunate for anyone who can't easily stream high quality video).  I missed most of the second and third day of the European games (alas), but have since watched the replays.  My European predictions (thus far) stand at 8-4 (Aligulac is 9-3).  Terrans have struggled the most, going 1-5 in their games (Zergs are 5-2, Protoss 6-4).  I missed getting my predictions out in time for day two of America, but going with my intentions there I stand at 8-4 (Aligulac is also 8-4).  Terrans are fairing better here (3-2), while Protoss are 7-5 and Zergs are struggling at 1-5.  The racial results on both counts should be taken with a grain of salt as they don't reflect the skills of the players in the matchups.  Korean players, oddly enough, are only 4-4 thus far.  The biggest upsets thus far are desRow over Apocalypse , Lilbow over Tefel , Has over Sage , and Top over viOLet (in that order)--so three of the four have occurred in WCS America.
The overview of the second half of the WCS Challenger games can be found here .
It was difficult not to predict this as a romp for TLO and that's what it was.  In their only previous match (3 years ago) the German rolled the Dane 2-0 and Aligulac put TLO 's odds at 88%.  In the first game  StrinterN did an aggressive zealot push that didn't do much damage, but set up an immortal push that TLO held off with hydras; the German then went mutalisk and the Protoss fell with ease.  The second game the Dane tried another zealot rush and got crushed by a ton of lings, but inefficient trades by TLO allowed StrinterN to stay in the game  TLO throwing his army away made the game much closer than it needed to be.  The final game included yet more zealot aggression where TLO fought favourably.  A failed immortal attack was followed by a failed colossus attack which ended the game.  I actually think TLO made this series harder on himself than it needed to be, but I didn't see anything from StrinterN that suggests he'll bull through to premier any time soon.
ShowTime 3 vs MorroW  0
This is a difficult match-up for Aligulac ( odds  were 54% in ShowTime 's favour), and despite the sweep this was the closest 3-0 in WSC thus far.  In the first game ShowTime opened oracle which did minimal damage and heading into the late game things were fairly even.  MorroW allowed his entire army to be stormed while attempting to take out the third and was unable to recover from that mistake.  The next game was very passive going into the macro stage as ShowTime went for a zealot/templar/colossus army that gradually transitioned to air.  I have to give MorroW credit for using nukes as something other than a gimmick in the game, but once again he got himself into a fight where his entire army was repeatedly stormed and lost the game because of it.  There is hope that MorroW can make his way back so he's one to watch out for in challenger.
Grubby 3 vs sLh  0
Not surprisingly Grubby was the overwhelming favourite ( 80% ) in the match and he came away with a three game sweep.  In the first game Grubby went phoenix versus blink and his timing was better, getting ahead of sLh and wrecking him with an immortal/colossus/void ray army.  The second game featured stalker pressure from the Polish player versus oracle harass by the Dutchman, with the latter far more effective and made for a straightforward win for Grubby .  In the final game Grubby went proxy oracle, but it didn't do the necessary damage.  The game went full macro mode with both players causing damage with DTs.  Grubby made better tactical decisions, got far ahead, and finished off sLh .  There's a ways to go before I can see  sLh truly challenge for premier.
Tefel 2 vs Lilbow  3
Tefel is perhaps best known for going full foreigner  against Mvp last year.  The Polish Zerg was considered a heavy favourite  (77%) against the French Protoss player, whom he beat