Houston's Big 12 bid has gained momentum with several big names voicing support. Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick announced they wanted Houston in the Big 12. Then the Texas president and Texas Tech president announced their support.

Per Big 12 bylaws, a team must receive eight votes to join the Big 12. If Houston already has two programs voting for them, then Houston needs to secure six of the remaining eight votes.

Although expansion involves a number of variables, expansion boils down to two main issues. First, would adding a particular team make the Big 12 more money until the grant of rights expires at the end of the 2024-2025 season? Second, would adding a team make the Big 12 more likely to survive after the grant of rights expires?

Given that Houston's entry into the conference would cause a number of problems for Baylor, unless Baylor overwhelmingly feels like Houston is better than another prospective member in generating more money now or keeping the conference together after the 2024-2025 season, the Bears should oppose Houston's entry.

There is no evidence Houston makes the Big 12 more money now

One big reason the Big 12 seems certain to expand is because it can make existing members more money. Dennis Dodd of CBS explained that expansion involves what is known as a pro rata increase for the Big 12 contract. Even if the league goes to 14 teams the pro rata increase remains. If the Big 12 adds four new members, rather than Fox and ESPN saying the new member is obviously weaker than others and we're not going to give the same payout, the networks have to pay the same amount of adjusted money. So if the Big 12 pays out $230 million now, or $23 million per school, the new schools would also receive a new $23 million payout. If you add four schools, the total comes to $92 million a season(the math isn't quite this hard and fast- payments for other sports and NCAA Tournament games are divided 14 ways instead of 10, and the T.V. money fluctuates).

The reason the Big 12's existing members like that $92 million figure is because they want to take some of that money. Clay Travis of Fox Sports noted the Big 12 is trying to generate revenue by having schools agree to accept less than their full amount. If a school makes $10 million in the American, then they might take $10 million in the Big 12, especially with all the benefits that go with Big 12 membership. In that case, the Big 12 could look at upwards of $50 million to divide between existing members. If this is what matters- and it does not exclusively, but it does to a degree- then the Big 12's focus in expansion is about which school will accept the least amount of money when it becomes a member.

Houston has not shown they will take less money than another institution. But for the sake of argument, let's say Houston will take $5 million less a season than any other expansion candidate. $5 million divided by 10 is $500,000. In the college sports landscape, $500,000 is not nearly enough to warrant Houston with the consequences their admission could have on Baylor's success.

Houston does not make the Big 12 more likely to survive

Houston is not comparatively more likely to save the Big 12 than other institutions. Houston has a few advantages: Houston market, large enrollment, and quality football and improving basketball. But those advantages are overstated, at least as it comes to expansion.

When someone from Houston says they are in a giant market, they rely on a few assumptions that make it irrelevant for expansion. First, Houston does not capture their own city. Nate Silver has a nice breakdown of this concept as it relates to the N.H.L. While having a large city is normally a bonus because more people in a city means more people watch, that's not true if the people in the city are not fans of the team or sport. In the N.H.L. context, Kansas City is one of the larger expansion options, however, Kansas City is one of the least interested cities in the U.S. when it comes to hockey. Houston faces a similar problem with their own city as it relates to claiming they have the Houston market. Many Houston residents are Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, or other fans. While Houston has a large market to draw from, they do not have great evidence they dominate their own market. They are certainly an improving program and not a terrible choice, but acting like they dominate a large metro area is a stretch.

Second, Houston is already captured if the Big 12 adds a network. The problem with having a geographically homogeneous league is that cable networks will already offer the league in that market. Although Houston fans may not want a Big 12 Network if the Cougars are not included, a ton of people in Houston will want to watch the other Texas schools. Those people will end up paying for a network they