This year has been eventful for the oil patch. Natural disasters, revolutions, terrorist attacks and political maneuvering kept oil bouncing around $100 per barrel and 3.8% higher on the year at the end of June. Despite the volatility and large number of external forces affecting oil prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its most recent Oil Market Report that "the bull run evident since autumn 2010 therefore looks in large part to be justified by supply and demand fundamentals."

Oil industry analyst PIRA estimates incremental demand will outpace supply by 1.1 million barrels per day on a year-over-year basis during the third quarter of 2011. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) says long-term supply/demand drivers indicate the market will remain tight for the foreseeable future as growing demand from emerging economies for liquid fuels and slowing non-OPEC supply growth "maintain upward pressure on oil prices." The IEA forecasts oil prices to average $98 per barrel this year and $103 per barrel in 2012.

Oil Demand

The IEA forecasts the world will use 91 million barrels of oil per day in 2012, an increase of 1.5 million barrels per day. The IEA also revised its 2011 oil demand projections upward by 0.2 million barrels per day. Projecting outward to 2016, the IEA's baseline scenario assumes a healthy 4.5% global GDP growth and an average oil price of $103 per barrel. With these assumptions, annual oil demand growth should average 1.2 millions barrels per day through 2016.

Emerging markets are almost entirely the source of this increased demand, with China accounting for 41% of demand growth over that time period, the IEA forecast says. The chart illustrates how developing (non-OECD) country oil demand has dramatically increased since the mid-1990s while developed world (OECD) demand has decreased. Through two financial bubbles and a global financial crisis, non-OECD demand has stair-stepped its way to nearly doubling in less than 20 years.

How is this possible? Many non-OECD markets have favorable demographics, rapidly urbanizing populations and industrializing economies that have returned many developing economies' GDP growth rates to pre-crisis levels.

Rising incomes have also outpaced rising oil prices and sustained emerging market demand despite a general reduction in subsidies, the IEA says. Rising wealth has also established a new global middle class that the World Bank estimates will be more than 1 billion strong by 2030. In fact, the World Bank was cited in a National Geographic article earlier this year forecasting that for the first time ever, more people in the world will be classified as middle class than poor in 2022. Today, roughly 70% of the world's population is classified as poor.

Major emerging market countries, such as China, India and Saudi Arabia, have reached the important GDP per capita range ($3,000-$20,000) where oil demand historically "takes-off."

China carries the biggest stick among emerging markets when it comes to oil demand. Strict tightening measures from Beijing and rising inflation slowed the country's oil demand growth to its lowest level since 2009 in June. However, China's oil demand is still expected to grow 7% this year, which is in line with the country's five-year average demand growth rate, according to Deutsche Bank. The summer months have historically been weak periods for oil demand in China but Deutsche Bank estimates growth rates will recover during the fourth quarter.

Chinese auto sales growth has slowed but still registered 10.9% year-over-year growth in June. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo for USA Today, Ford CEO Alan Mulally called China's car market a "very exciting development." The company is projecting China's auto sales will reach 32 million by 2020-28% of the entire global market. Ford isn't the only US auto manufacturer tapping into China's booming auto market; General Motors' Buick brand is one of the most popular in the country. According to the Brookings Institute, General Motors sold 10 cars in the US for every one car sold in China in 2004. Today, that figure is nearly 1-to-1.

In the developed world, the outlook for oil demand is less bullish. OPEC says the "austerity measures, combined with high levels of both debt and unemployment, are likely to dent the fragile recovery in major OECD countries."

While demand growth in OECD countries is underwhelming, consumption rates have recovered from recession lows at a much faster rate than many expected. You can see that OECD demand contributed heavily to the recovery in global oil demand from early 2009 to late 2010. In fact, the developed world contributes little to global oil demand growth but still consumes more than half of the world's total demand.

Despite China's rise, OPEC says the fate of the US economy is the most influencing factor for oil over the next 12 months. Oil demand in the US was revised upward in May and the US economy is