Title: WTO | 2020 Press Releases - Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy - Press/855
Headings: Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy
Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy
Trade forecast press conference: Remarks by DG Azevêdo
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MAIN POINTS
Chart 1 - World merchandise trade volume, 2000‑2022
Index, 2015=100
Outlook for trade in 2020 and 2021
Chart 2 - Ratio of world merchandise trade growth to world GDP growth, 1990‑2020
% change and ratio
Chart 3: New export orders from purchasing managers indices, Jan. 2008 – Mar. 2020
Index, base=50
Trade developments in 2019
Chart 4: World merchandise exports and imports, 2015Q1‑2019Q4
Index 2015Q1=100 and year‑on‑year % change
Chart 5: Merchandise exports and imports by region, 2015Q1‑2019Q4
(Volume index, 2015Q1=100)
Chart 6: Growth in the value of commercial services exports by category, 2015‑2019
% change in US$ values
Table 1: Merchandise trade volume and real GDP, 2018-2021 1
Annual % change
Appendix Tables
Appendix Table 1: Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2019
(Billion US$ and %)
Appendix Table 2: Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2019
(Billion US$ and %)
Appendix Table 3: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2019
(Billion US$ and %)
Appendix Table 4: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2019
(Billion US$ and %)

Content: Projections for GDP based on scenarios simulated with WTO Global Trade Model. Two other aspects that distinguish the current downturn from the financial crisis are the role of value chains and trade in services. Value chain disruption was already an issue when COVID‑19 was mostly confined to China. It remains a salient factor now that the disease has become more widespread. Trade is likely to fall more steeply in sectors characterized by complex value chain linkages, particularly in electronics and automotive products. According to the OECD Trade In Value Added (TiVa) database, the share of foreign value added in electronics exports was around 10% for the United States, 25% for China, more than 30% for Korea, greater than 40% for Singapore and more than 50% for Mexico, Malaysia and Vietnam. Imports of key production inputs are likely to be interrupted by social distancing, which caused factories to temporarily close in China and which is now happening in Europe and North America. However, it is also useful to recall that complex supply chain disruption can occur as a result of localized disasters such hurricanes, tsunamis, and other economic disruptions. Managing supply chain disruption is a challenge for both global and local enterprises and requires a risk-versus-economic efficiency calculation on the part of every company. Services trade may be the component of world trade most directly affected by COVID-19 through the imposition of transport and travel restrictions and the closure of many retail and hospitality establishments.