Title: Climate change leading to major vegetation shifts around the world | Berkeley News
Headings: Climate change leading to major vegetation shifts around the world
Climate change leading to major vegetation shifts around the world
Content: The researchers calculated that from 1901 to 2002, mean temperatures significantly increased on 76 percent of global land, with the greatest warming in boreal, or subarctic, regions. The most substantial biome shifts occurred where temperature or precipitation changed by one-half to two standard deviations from 20th century mean values. Some examples of biome shifts that occurred include woodlands giving way to grasslands in the African Sahel, and shrublands encroaching onto tundra in the Arctic. “The dieback of trees and shrubs in the Sahel leaves less wood for houses and cooking, while the contraction of Arctic tundra reduces habitat for caribou and other wildlife,” said Gonzalez, who has served as a lead author on reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “ Globally, vegetation shifts are disrupting ecosystems, reducing habitat for endangered species, and altering the forests that supply water and other services to many people.” To identify the areas most vulnerable to future vegetation shifts, the researchers combined statistical analyses of observed climate data from the 20th century with models of vegetation change in the 21st century. Based upon nine different combinations of IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, the researchers divided the world’s land into five classes – from very high to very low – of vulnerability to biome shifts. “Scientists had not quantified this risk before,” said Gonzalez. “ We developed a simple classification system that natural resource management agencies can use to identify regions in greatest need of attention and planning. We have worked with the U.S.D.A. Forest Service and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to explore the application of our results to adaptation of natural resource management.”