Title: 
Headings: 
Understanding
Why
Crime
Fell
 
in
the
1990s:
 
Four
Factors
that
 
Explain
the
Decline
and
Six
that
 
Do
Not

Crime

Media
Explanations
 
for
 
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s,
 
Ranked
by
Frequency
of
Mention

De
ning
Features
of
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s

The
Magnitude
of
the
Decline

Homicide
Rate,
 
1950–2001

National
 
Trends
 
in
Speci
 
c
 
Categories
of
 
Crime

Percentage
Changes
in
Crime
Rates
for
 
Different
 
Population
Groups,
1991–2001

The
Universality
of
the
Drop
in
Crime

Homicide
Trends
 
in
Large
U.S.
 
Cities

Expert
 
Forecast
 
Made
 
by
 
James
 
Alan
 
Fox
 
in
1995
 
vs.
 
Actual
 
Teen
 
Homicide
Offenders

The
Unexpectedness
of
the
Drop
in
Crime

Six
Factors
that
 
Played
Little
or
No
Role
in
the
Crime
Decline

1)
 
The
Strong
Economy
of
the
1990s

2)
 
Changing
Demographics

3)
 
Better
Policing
Strategies

4)
 
Gun
Control
 
Laws

5)
 
Laws
 
Allowing
the
Carrying
of
Concealed
Weapons

6)
 
Increased
Use
of
 
Capital
 
Punishment

Four
 
Factors
That
 
Explain
the
Decline
in
Crime

1)
 
Increases
in
the
Number
of
Police

2)
 
The
Rising
Prison
Population

Adult
 
Incarceration
Rate,
 
1950–2001

3)
 
The
Receding
Crack
Epidemic

Homicide
Offending
Rates
 
by
Race
and
Age

4)
 
The
Legalization
of
 
Abortion

Summarizing
the
Evidence

Extending
the
Analysis
to
the
Period
1973–1991

Summarizing
the
Estimated
Contribution
of
 
Various
Factors
to
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s

Summarizing
the
Estimated
Contribution
of
 
Various
Factors
to
the
Decline
in
Crime,
 
1973–1991

Conclusions

References

Blumstein,
 
Alfred
 
and
 
Richard
 
Rosenfeld.

Britt,
 
Chester,
Gary
 
Kleck
and
David
Bordua.

Charles,
 
Kerwin
Co
 
and
Melvin
Stephens
Jr.

Loeber,
 
Rolf
 
and
Magda
Stouthamer-Loeber.

Miller,Ted,
 
Mark
Cohen
and
Shelli
Rossman.

Raphael,
 
Stephen
and
Rudolf
 
Winter-Ebmer.


Content: Afterthat,the
homicidetrendbeganalarge,steadydecline. Between1991and2000,homicide
ratespercapitafellfrom9.8to5.5per100,000,adropof44percent. Sincethat
time,homiciderateshavebeensteady. Thesamepatternobservedforhomicideispresentforeverymajorcrime
categoryandinbothofthecommonlyusedmeasuresofcrimeintheUnitedStates: theFBI’sUniformCrimeReports(UCR),coveringcrimesreportedtothepolice,
andtheNationalCrimeVictimizationSurvey(NCVS),alarge,nationallyrepresen-
tativephonesurveyofAmericans. Table2reportsthepercentagedeclinebetween
1991and2001.Forpurposesofcomparison,thepercentagechangeincrimerates
overtheperiod1973–1991isalsoshown(1973istherstyearofavailabilityfor
NCVS).Fortheperiod1991–2001,crimesreportedtothepolicefellbetween24
and46percentacrossthevariouscrimecategories. Thereductionincriminal
victimizationsinNCVSisevengreater,rangingfrom45to58percent.2
2ThecongruencebetweentheUCRandNCVSdataforthe1990sisheartening,giventhattheaggregate
trendsinthesetwodatasourceshavefailedtotrackcloselyoneanotherhistorically,asevidencedinthe
rstcolumnofthetable. Between1973and1991,theUCRdatasuggestsharplyrisingcrimeinmost
categories,whereasthevictimizationdatandsdeclinesincrimeformorethanhalfofthecategories. BoggessandBound(1997)arguethatapartialexplanationforthedifferentpatternsisthatthetwodata
setsmeasuresomewhatdifferentcrimes;forexample,NCVScrimestendtobelessserious,evenwithin
acrimecategory. Table
 
2
National
 
Trends
 
in
Speci
 
c
 
Categories
of
 
Crime
Crime
 
category
 
and
data
source

Percentage
change
in
crime
Percentage
 
change
 
in
crime
category,
 
1973–1991
category,
 
1991–2001

Percentage
change
in
crime
Percentage
 
change
 
in
crime
category,
 
1973–1991
category,
 
1991–2001

Crimes
 
reported
to
the
police
from
UCR
Violent
 
crime
 
Homicide
 
Rape
 
Robbery
 
Aggravated
assault
 
Property
crime
 
Burglary
 
Larceny
 
Motor
 
vehicle
theft
 
Criminal
 
victimizations
 
from
NCVS
Violent
 
crime
 
Rape
 
Robbery
 
Aggravated
assault
 
Simple
assault
 
Property
crime
 
Burglary
 
Theft
 
Motor
 
vehicle
theft
 

182.9
 
15.4
 
173.4
 
150.0
 
1118.1
 
138.2
 
13.0
 
156.7
 
149.8
 
11.6
 
220.0
 
215.5
 
23.9
 
110.7
 
232.0
 
241.3
 
246.5
 
116.2
 
233.6
242.9
224.8
245.8
226.7
228.8
240.9
223.2
234.6
250.1
245.0
253.3
256.9
247.0
252.8
255.6
251.6
258.6

Notes: