Title: Chapter 6: Sex Offender Risk Assessment | Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking
Headings: Chapter 6: Sex Offender Risk Assessment
Chapter 6: Sex Offender Risk Assessment
by Kevin Baldwin, Ph.D.
Findings
Introduction
Review of Research
Empirical research has yet to identify a single "best" risk assessment instrument.
Future Directions
Summary
Notes
References

Content: Levenson, 2009), and that there is consequently a need for methods and tools that can be used to accurately assess the risk to public safety that sexual offenders pose. Indeed, estimates of risk for sex offenders are used in various community corrections, institutional corrections and civil commitment decision-making contexts. Thus, the scientific and theoretical underpinnings of risk assessment are a critical component of the successful management of adult sexual offenders (Hanson & Bourgon, in press; Mann, Hanson & Thortnon, 2010; Tabachnick & Klein, 2011). ( For more on "Sex Offender Management Strategies," see Chapter 8 in the Adult section.) In many respects, the effectiveness of sex offender management policies relies on the ability of criminal justice professionals to accurately differentiate sexual offenders according to their risk for recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Arguing from a policy standpoint, Tabachnick and Klein (2011) have stated that the results of actuarial risk assessments in particular should inform decision-making at all levels regarding the supervision of adult sexual offenders in order to prevent recidivism. Given the role played by risk assessment in high-stakes decisions such as those involving potential civil commitment for those designated as sexually violent predators, as well as the possibility of lifetime community supervision, reliance on methods and procedures possessing a strong scientific evidence base is especially critical. While much progress has been made regarding the ability of professionals in the field to accurately estimate the likelihood of future sexual reoffense, no one is presently able to estimate either the timing or the severity of such future criminal conduct (J. Levenson, personal communication, May 23, 2011).