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Content: This can have the effect of alienating groups that are not targeted by a campaign manager, and so they have little incentive to vote. Polls
Election year polls are popular with the media. They tell us, at a given moment, who is ahead and by how much, based on a statistical sample of prospective voters. The wording of the questions presented often has a definite effect on the replies, but the process has become sophisticated enough to give polls credibility. The trouble with this census taking of public opinion is that it sometimes discourages people from voting if they think that their favorite candidate is 30 percent ahead or 30 percent behind. Why bother? He or she is going to win or lose in any event. Exit polls taken during the 1980 presidential election showed Ronald Reagan as the winner, based on the results in the Eastern and Central time zones. Many voters in California who learned of his lead stayed home-to the detriment of a number of local candidates. People on the Move
Another factor in not voting is that Americans are very mobile.