Title: 
Headings: 
Understanding
Why
Crime
Fell
 
in
the
1990s:
 
Four
Factors
that
 
Explain
the
Decline
and
Six
that
 
Do
Not

Crime

Media
Explanations
 
for
 
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s,
 
Ranked
by
Frequency
of
Mention

De
ning
Features
of
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s

The
Magnitude
of
the
Decline

Homicide
Rate,
 
1950–2001

National
 
Trends
 
in
Speci
 
c
 
Categories
of
 
Crime

Percentage
Changes
in
Crime
Rates
for
 
Different
 
Population
Groups,
1991–2001

The
Universality
of
the
Drop
in
Crime

Homicide
Trends
 
in
Large
U.S.
 
Cities

Expert
 
Forecast
 
Made
 
by
 
James
 
Alan
 
Fox
 
in
1995
 
vs.
 
Actual
 
Teen
 
Homicide
Offenders

The
Unexpectedness
of
the
Drop
in
Crime

Six
Factors
that
 
Played
Little
or
No
Role
in
the
Crime
Decline

1)
 
The
Strong
Economy
of
the
1990s

2)
 
Changing
Demographics

3)
 
Better
Policing
Strategies

4)
 
Gun
Control
 
Laws

5)
 
Laws
 
Allowing
the
Carrying
of
Concealed
Weapons

6)
 
Increased
Use
of
 
Capital
 
Punishment

Four
 
Factors
That
 
Explain
the
Decline
in
Crime

1)
 
Increases
in
the
Number
of
Police

2)
 
The
Rising
Prison
Population

Adult
 
Incarceration
Rate,
 
1950–2001

3)
 
The
Receding
Crack
Epidemic

Homicide
Offending
Rates
 
by
Race
and
Age

4)
 
The
Legalization
of
 
Abortion

Summarizing
the
Evidence

Extending
the
Analysis
to
the
Period
1973–1991

Summarizing
the
Estimated
Contribution
of
 
Various
Factors
to
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s

Summarizing
the
Estimated
Contribution
of
 
Various
Factors
to
the
Decline
in
Crime,
 
1973–1991

Conclusions

References

Blumstein,
 
Alfred
 
and
 
Richard
 
Rosenfeld.

Britt,
 
Chester,
Gary
 
Kleck
and
David
Bordua.

Charles,
 
Kerwin
Co
 
and
Melvin
Stephens
Jr.

Loeber,
 
Rolf
 
and
Magda
Stouthamer-Loeber.

Miller,Ted,
 
Mark
Cohen
and
Shelli
Rossman.

Raphael,
 
Stephen
and
Rudolf
 
Winter-Ebmer.


Content: The
 
decline
 
in
crime
 
has
 
also
 
been
remarkable
 
in
its
 
steady
 
persistence. Homicide
rates
fell
in
nine
of
the
ten
years
in
the
decade
of
the
1990s,
 
with
the
only
exception
being
a
 
minor
 
upward
blip
in
1992. In
the
 
previous
 
three
 
decades,
homicide
had
never
 
fallen
for
 
more
than
three
consecutive
years. Robbery,
 
bur-
glary
and
larceny
each
fell
every
year
between
1991
and
2000. Prior
to
1991,
 
robbery
rates
 
had
fallen
in
only
eight
 
of
 
the
preceding
30
years. The
drop
in
U.S.
 
crime
appears
 
to
be
unusual
 
among
countries
of
 
the
world,
although
denitional
and
reporting
differences
across
countries,
 
as
well
as
the
poor
quality
of
crime
statistics
in
most
countries
other
than
the
United
States,
 
make
such
international
 
comparisons
 
difcult. Barclay,
 
Tavares
 
and
Siddique
(2001)
provide
one
of
 
the
most
 
careful
 
cross-country
 
comparisons
 
of
 
crime
trends. That
 
analysis
reports
 
that
 
homicide
rates
 
fell
 
4
percent
 
on
average
in
European
Union
(EU)
member
states
between
1995
and
1999,
 
a
period
over
which
U.S.
homicide
rates
fell
28
percent. Violent
 
crime
rose
11
percent
 
on
average
in
EU
countries
 
over
 
that
same
time
period,
 
compared
to
20
percent
 
drops
 
in
U.S.
 
violent
 
crime. Burglary
Table
 
3
Percentage
Changes
in
Crime
Rates
for
 
Different
 
Population
Groups,
1991–2001

Homicide
 

Violent
 
Crime
 

Property
Crime

Entire
United
States
 
Region

242.9
 
233.6
 

242.9
 
233.6
 

228.8

Northeast
 

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