Title: Russia’s gas pipeline strategy and Europe’s alternatives – European Council on Foreign Relations
Headings: Russia’s gas pipeline strategy and Europe’s alternatives
Russia’s gas pipeline strategy and Europe’s alternatives
Author

Content: There are no guarantees that every subsequent winter will be warm. And there are few options (and little time) for Europe to secure gas flows to its citizens this coming winter other than doing its homework – preparing for the worst this coming winter – and to continue supporting Ukraine in securing finances for filling up its storage capacity. Strained relationships between the EU and Russia due to the Ukrainian crisis have forced Gazprom – Russia’s state gas monopolist – to abandon the idea of controlling pipelines from ‘wellhead to burner tip’. Gazprom’s new grand vision in Europe is to build pipelines to the EU border and from there its clients are expected to take gas to their home markets. As part of this vision, it also commits not to use Ukrainian pipelines after 2019. So if Europeans need Russian gas they should build the missing links connecting to Gazprom’s proposed pipelines – the Turkish Stream and the recently-announced expansion of the Nord Stream link – themselves, or so goes the current thinking in Gazprom and the Kremlin. However, neither Turkish nor Western companies are rushing to build these pipelines. What is left for European energy security is the possibility that Western energy companies may take risks in dealing with Ukraine’s transit issues post-2019. Indeed, this may seem unpalatable for risk-averse Western companies; however, recent policy and market developments in Ukraine – aimed at energy reforms following Europe’s guidelines – give us some optimism that there might be some degree of ‘normalisation’ of energy trade on the continent in the next few years.