Title: The Total Cost of U.S. Tariffs - AAF
Headings: The Total Cost of U.S. Tariffs
Research
The Total Cost of U.S. Tariffs
Tom Lee, Jacqueline Varas
Executive Summary
Introduction
The Economic Cost of Current Tariffs
The Tariffs’ Impacts on Trade
Tariff Exclusions
Retaliatory Tariffs
Upcoming New Tariffs
Tom Lee
Data and Policy Analyst
Jacqueline Varas
Former Director of Immigration and Trade Policy

Content: Comparing these values to 2017 import levels shows that it takes time for businesses to reorganize supply chains. The Section 301 tariffs on China were imposed starting July 2018, but imports of tariffed goods from China increased by nearly $30 billion from 2017 to 2018. Similarly, the steel and aluminum tariffs were imposed in March of 2018, but steel and aluminum imports slightly increased from $25.7 billion in 2017 to $26.0 billion in 2018. It was not until 2019 that the tariffs started having a noticeable impact on import levels, meaning that throughout 2018, importers were likely forced to pay the entirety of the tariffs themselves as they were unable to shift supply chains to avoid them. Finally, to get a full picture of the tariffs’ impacts, it is also important to consider the underlying trends of import levels overall – not just imports of tariffed goods. From 2018 to 2019, the value of overall imports in the United States fell by 2 percent, from $2.6 trillion to $2.5 trillion. This drop is a stark contrast from the previous year when overall import levels rose by nearly 10 percent, suggesting the president’s trade policy negatively impacted trade flows overall. The data also show that importers have shifted away from importing tariffed goods, and not just from China. From 2018 to 2019, imports of all goods on the Section 301 tariff lists – regardles