Title: 
Headings: 
Understanding
Why
Crime
Fell
 
in
the
1990s:
 
Four
Factors
that
 
Explain
the
Decline
and
Six
that
 
Do
Not

Crime

Media
Explanations
 
for
 
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s,
 
Ranked
by
Frequency
of
Mention

De
ning
Features
of
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s

The
Magnitude
of
the
Decline

Homicide
Rate,
 
1950–2001

National
 
Trends
 
in
Speci
 
c
 
Categories
of
 
Crime

Percentage
Changes
in
Crime
Rates
for
 
Different
 
Population
Groups,
1991–2001

The
Universality
of
the
Drop
in
Crime

Homicide
Trends
 
in
Large
U.S.
 
Cities

Expert
 
Forecast
 
Made
 
by
 
James
 
Alan
 
Fox
 
in
1995
 
vs.
 
Actual
 
Teen
 
Homicide
Offenders

The
Unexpectedness
of
the
Drop
in
Crime

Six
Factors
that
 
Played
Little
or
No
Role
in
the
Crime
Decline

1)
 
The
Strong
Economy
of
the
1990s

2)
 
Changing
Demographics

3)
 
Better
Policing
Strategies

4)
 
Gun
Control
 
Laws

5)
 
Laws
 
Allowing
the
Carrying
of
Concealed
Weapons

6)
 
Increased
Use
of
 
Capital
 
Punishment

Four
 
Factors
That
 
Explain
the
Decline
in
Crime

1)
 
Increases
in
the
Number
of
Police

2)
 
The
Rising
Prison
Population

Adult
 
Incarceration
Rate,
 
1950–2001

3)
 
The
Receding
Crack
Epidemic

Homicide
Offending
Rates
 
by
Race
and
Age

4)
 
The
Legalization
of
 
Abortion

Summarizing
the
Evidence

Extending
the
Analysis
to
the
Period
1973–1991

Summarizing
the
Estimated
Contribution
of
 
Various
Factors
to
the
Decline
in
Crime
in
the
1990s

Summarizing
the
Estimated
Contribution
of
 
Various
Factors
to
the
Decline
in
Crime,
 
1973–1991

Conclusions

References

Blumstein,
 
Alfred
 
and
 
Richard
 
Rosenfeld.

Britt,
 
Chester,
Gary
 
Kleck
and
David
Bordua.

Charles,
 
Kerwin
Co
 
and
Melvin
Stephens
Jr.

Loeber,
 
Rolf
 
and
Magda
Stouthamer-Loeber.

Miller,Ted,
 
Mark
Cohen
and
Shelli
Rossman.

Raphael,
 
Stephen
and
Rudolf
 
Winter-Ebmer.


Content: Figure
1
presents
 
time
series
 
data
 
for
 
homicides
 
from
1950
to

 
Reyes
 
(2002)
offers
 
an
additional
 
intriguing
explanation
for
 
the
decline
in
crime: the
reduction
in
levels
 
of
 
lead
in
the
blood
due
to
the
elimination
of
 
leaded
gasoline
and
lead-based
paints. Because
of
the
highly
speculative
nature
of
the
Reyes
conjectureat
 
the
presenttime,
 
I
do
not
discuss
this
hypothesis
at
 
greater
 
length,
 
although
it
 
is
 
clearly
 
an
area
worthy
 
of
 
continued
future
research. Figure
 
1
Homicide
Rate,
 
1950–2001
12
ts
10
0,000
10
6
 
er

 
icides
4
m

H
2
2001.Homicideisthemostaccuratelymeasuredandmostseriouscrimeandthus
providesausefulbenchmark. Homiciderateswererelativelysteadyatabout4–5
per100,000populationfrom1950throughthemid-1960s,atwhichpointthey
startedrisingtoapeakof10.2per100,000populationin1980.From1980to1991,
thehomiciderateuctuatedbetween8–10per100,000population. Afterthat,the
homicidetrendbeganalarge,steadydecline. Between1991and2000,homicide
ratespercapitafellfrom9.8to5.5per100,000,adropof44percent. Sincethat
time,homiciderateshavebeensteady. Thesamepatternobservedforhomicideispresentforeverymajorcrime
categoryandinbothofthecommonlyusedmeasuresofcrimeintheUnitedStates: theFBI’sUniformCrimeReports(UCR),coveringcrimesreportedtothepolice,
andtheNationalCrimeVictimizationSurvey(NCVS),alarge,nationallyrepresen-
tativephonesurveyofAmericans.