Title: 
Headings:  2020 Poverty Projections
2020
 
Poverty
 
Projections
  

Initial
 
US
 
Policy
 
Response
 
to
 
the
 
COVID-19
 
Pandemic’s
 
Economic
 
Effects
 
Is
 
Projected
 
to
 
Blunt
 
the
 
Rise
 
in
 
Annual
 
Poverty
  

July
 
2020
 

Key
 
Supports
 
for
 
Individuals,
 
Standard
 
Safety
 
Net
 
versus
 
Pandemic
 
Response
 
Policies
 

Projecting
 
Poverty
 

Key
 
Definitions
 
and
 
Assumptions
 

Poverty
 
at
 
the
 
National
 
Level,
 
with
 
and
 
without
 
the
 
COVID-19
 
Pandemic
 
Response
 
Policies
 

Projected
 
2020
 
Annual
 
Poverty
 
Rates
 
with
 
and
 
without
 
COVID-19
 
Pandemic
 
Response
 
Policies
 

Projected
 
poverty
 
Projected
 
poverty
 
rate
 
rate
 
with
 
pandemic
 
without
 
pandemic
 
response
 
policies
 
(%)
 
response
 
policies
 
(%)
 

Number
 
of
 
people
 
kept
 
out
 
of
 
poverty
 
by
 
the
 
pandemic
 
response
 
policies
 
(millions)
 

Poverty
 
Projections
 
by
 
State,
 
with
 
and
 
without
 
the
 
COVID-19
 
Response
 
Policies
 

Projected
 
2020
 
Annual
 
Poverty
 
Rates,
 
with
 
and
 
without
 
COVID-19
 
Pandemic
 
Response
 
Policies,
 
by
 
State
 

Projected
 
poverty
 
rate
 
with
 
pandemic
 
response
 
policies
 
(%)
 

Projected
 
poverty
 
rate
 
without
 
pandemic
 
response
 
policies
 
(%)
 

Number
 
of
 
people
 
kept
 
out
 
of
 
poverty
 
by
 
the
 
pandemic
 
response
 
policies
 
(thousands)
 

Conclusion
 

References
 

About
 
the
 
Authors
 

Acknowledgments
 

ABOUT
 
THE
 
URBAN
 
INSTITUTE
 


Content: ◼
 
 
Enhanced
 
Supplemental
 
Nutrition
 
Assistance
 
Program
 
(SNAP,
 
or
 
“food
 
stamps”): States
 
can
 
request
 
waivers
 
to
 
provide
 
all
 
SNAP
 
recipients
 
the
 
maximum
 
monthly
 
payment
 
for
 
their
 
family
 
size,
 
which
 
in
 
most
 
cases
 
is
 
higher
 
than
 
what
 
they
 
would
 
otherwise
 
have
 
received. To
 
date,
 
all
 
states
 
have
 
received
 
waivers
 
to
 
do
 
this
 
for
 
a
 
period
 
ranging
 
from
 
three
 
to
 
five
 
months. The
 
federal
 
government
 
also
 
temporarily
 
suspended
 
the
 
rules
 
that
 
normally
 
limit
 
a
 
nonworking
 
childless
 
adult
 
without
 
disabilities
 
to
 
three
 
months
 
of
 
benefits. ◼
 
 
Expanded
 
unemployment
 
insurance
 
(UI)
 
benefits: Federal
 
legislation
 
extended
 
eligibility
 
for
 
unemployment
 
benefits
 
to
 
cover
 
many
 
people
 
who
 
would
 
not
 
have
 
been
 
eligible
 
under
 
regular
 
rules. Further,
 
the
 
federal
 
government
 
is
 
paying
 
to
 
add
 
$600
 
to
 
each
 
weekly
 
unemployment
 
check
 
from
 
April
 
through
 
the
 
end
 
of
 
July,
 
and
 
the
 
number
 
of
 
potential
 
weeks
 
of
 
benefits
 
has
 
been
 
extended
 
so
 
that
 
people
 
in
 
all
 
states
 
could
 
continue
 
to
 
receive
 
benefits
 
at
 
least
 
until
 
the
 
end
 
of
 
the
 
year. Using
 
the
 
Analysis
 
of
 
Transfers,
 
Taxes,
 
and
 
Income
 
Security
 
(ATTIS)
 
microsimulation
 
model
 
(Pyati
 
2020),
 
we
 
project
 
what
 
the
 
annual
 
poverty
 
rate
 
could
 
be
 
for
 
2020
 
based
 
on
 
existing
 
data
 
and
 
assumptions
 
about
 
the
 
level
 
of
 
initial
 
job
 
loss,
 
returns
 
to
 
work
 
through
 
the
 
year,
 
and
 
the
 
people
 
still
 
unemployed
 
at
 
the
 
end
 
of
 
the
 
year. We
 
use
 
a
 
modified
 
definition
 
of
 
poverty
 
that
 
captures
 
the
 
value
 
of
 
SNAP
 
and
 
the
 
stimulus
 
checks. Because
 
we
 
consider
 
resources
 
not
 
included
 
in
 
the
 
official
 
poverty
 
measure
 
but
 
use
 
the
 
same
 
standard
 
of
 
need,
 
our
 
modified
 
poverty
 
rates
 
are
 
somewhat
 
lower
 
than
 
the
 
official
 
rate.