Title: Giving Meaning to Risk Factors
Headings: Giving Meaning to Risk Factors
Giving Meaning to Risk Factors
Research summary
Vol. 15 No. 6
November 2010
Question
Background
Method
Answer
Policy implications
Source
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Content: For example, the risk of sexual recidivism is higher among sexual offenders who have unrelated victims rather than related victims, or who commit non-contact sexual offences rather than offences that involve intercourse. Understanding why risk factors predict recidivism would help determine appropriate intervention and management strategies, and to evaluate changes in risk levels over time. Method
A comprehensive literature review was conducted examining risk factors for male sexual offenders. For each set of risk factors, we searched for explanations as to why the characteristics should be related to increased sexual recidivism risk. These explanations were guided by offenders' own explanations for their own offending, and by commonly-accepted psychological research on the development and stability of personality characteristics. Answer
Risk factors predict recidivism because they are markers for enduring, psychologically meaningful characteristics. For male sexual offenders, the propensities that are most strongly related to recidivism are deviant sexual interests, difficulties forming intimate relationships with adults, and problems with general self-regulation. The variables that are the best predictors of recidivism are those that best represent the underlying psychologically meaningful risk factors. The best measures of problematic propensities consider both static variables, such as offence history, as well as dynamic variables, such as negative attitudes toward authority. Static risk factors are good predictors when the underlying propensities are highly stable.