Title: Risk Assessment | ATSA
Headings: 
Risk Assessment
Content: Sex offenders of various types are a very heterogeneous group. The likelihood of a particular sex offender re-offending cannot be accurately predicted; rather, the field is limited to predicting the likelihood that a sex offender with particular characteristics may re-offend. Currently, there a number of ways of offering meaningful risk assessments of future sex offense recidivism. First, estimated base rates (for a particular follow-up period) can be used to establish a benchmark for the likelihood of general classes of sex offenders such as rapists or child molesters. Second, research has identified risk factors that can be used to identify those sex offenders at a higher risk to re-offend. Third, several researchers have studied particular combinations of risk factors which, in designated combinations, are associated with different levels of risk for future sex offending. These are typically known as “actuarial tools” and are similar to actuarial tables utilized by insurance companies to determine relative risk. Fourth, specially trained experts are able calculate appropriate “actuarial tools” for particular offenders and offer the established cutoffs on these tools to the courts for consideration. A risk assessment may consider both aspects of an offender that might result in a change in their relative risk (e.g. sex offender treatment completion, advanced age) or other characteristics specific to an individual that affect their risk for future dangerousness, but it must be recognized unless these factors have been incorporated into empirically validated actuarial tools, the weights that these factors contribute are uncertain and their addition may reduce accuracy.