Title: Why do national polling analysts think Minnesota is a swing state? | MinnPost
Headings: Why do national polling analysts think Minnesota is a swing state?
News
Why do national polling analysts think Minnesota is a swing state?
Limited data
‘Might be a swing state’
Getting (relatively) less blue
Minnesota's Partisan Voter Index
Demographics
Greta Kaul

Content: REUTERS/John Gress
Oct. 13, 2016
Have you bookmarked RealClearPolitics’ electoral college map? Do you check it every day to see whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump has gained ground in the polls? If you answered yes, and you’re a Minnesotan, you might be a bit puzzled. You might ask yourself why Minnesota, which has voted Democratic in presidential elections since 1976, shows up not red, not blue, but gray — a toss-up state — in an election year where the Republican contender is believed to be especially unpopular here. It’s not just RealClearPolitics. There are several election forecasters that have had Minnesota listed as less than true blue this election. On Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, Minnesota is a state to watch, though as of publication Thursday morning, it gave Clinton an 88 percent chance of taking Minnesota (slightly less than Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania). On the Washington Post’s The Fix, Minnesota is leaning, but not safely, blue. The Louis Jacobson/Governing magazine map changed Minnesota’s rating from likely Democratic to lean Democratic on October 5, calling Clinton’s margins “relatively narrow.” Of course, this could all change, and fast, in light of the leak of Trump’s lewd comments on Friday and however voters process the presidential debate, the full effects of which likely haven’t shown up in the polls yet.