Title: Why do national polling analysts think Minnesota is a swing state? | MinnPost
Headings: Why do national polling analysts think Minnesota is a swing state?
News
Why do national polling analysts think Minnesota is a swing state?
Limited data
‘Might be a swing state’
Getting (relatively) less blue
Minnesota's Partisan Voter Index
Demographics
Greta Kaul

Content: Obama ultimately won by a 7.7 percentage point margin — smaller than his 10-plus point margin of victory in Minnesota in 2008. This year, FiveThirtyEight calls Minnesota a state to watch. As of Thursday morning, FiveThirtyEight predicts Clinton will win with a 8 percentage point margin — a number that has gone up in recent days — in Minnesota and gives her an 88 percent chance of taking the state. There are a few reasons Minnesota might be seen as a swing state, wrote FiveThirtyEight writer and analyst Harry Enten in an email. “ First, in most recent elections it's been fairly close to the national vote. In 2012, Obama won by 8 as he won by 4 nationally. That's not like in a blue state like Massachusetts where Obama won by over 20 percentage points. On that basis alone, we'd expect the state to be fairly close if the election were close.” Getting (relatively) less blue
These polls may reflect an underlying change in Minnesota’s electorate: according to one trusted measure of a state’s partisan leanings, Minnesota has become less blue in presidential elections, relative to all U.S. states, over time.