Title: 6 economic consequences of a new cold war - MarketWatch
Headings: 6 economic consequences of a new cold war
Matthew Lynn's London Eye
6 economic consequences of a new cold war
Matthew Lynn
Opinion: Energy, defense spending will rise; Europe, Russia will slow
The Brandenburg Gate in Berlin was on the front line of the Cold War of the 1940s through 1980s. Russia’s annexation of Crimea is the beginning of a new Cold War, says Matthew Lynn.
One: The European economy gets even worse
Two: Energy prices will rise
Three: The Russian economy declines
Four: Defense spending will rise
Five: More Quantitative Easing
Six: Strategic Economies Get Support
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Content: The European economy gets even worse
Russia is not a huge economic success, relying too heavily on natural resources. But it is still the eighth biggest economy in the world and it is right on Europe’s doorstep. EU-Russia trade had grown from $90 billion 10 years ago to $335 billion now. That has helped European companies at a time when their domestic market has been struggling. Exports to Russia account for 0.6% of European gross domestic product. It is not a huge amount, but at the margin it is important. If sanctions are imposed, and trade barriers go up, that is going to suffer — and the European economy will suffer with it. Two: Energy prices will rise
Europe is heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas. As much as 40% of Germany’s gas comes from that one country, and 50% of Austria’s.