Title: Chapter 6: Sex Offender Risk Assessment | Office of Sex Offender Sentencing, Monitoring, Apprehending, Registering, and Tracking
Headings: Chapter 6: Sex Offender Risk Assessment
Chapter 6: Sex Offender Risk Assessment
by Kevin Baldwin, Ph.D.
Findings
Introduction
Review of Research
Empirical research has yet to identify a single "best" risk assessment instrument.
Future Directions
Summary
Notes
References

Content: For more on "Sex Offender Management Strategies," see Chapter 8 in the Adult section.) In many respects, the effectiveness of sex offender management policies relies on the ability of criminal justice professionals to accurately differentiate sexual offenders according to their risk for recidivism (Hanson & Morton-Bourgon, 2005). Arguing from a policy standpoint, Tabachnick and Klein (2011) have stated that the results of actuarial risk assessments in particular should inform decision-making at all levels regarding the supervision of adult sexual offenders in order to prevent recidivism. Given the role played by risk assessment in high-stakes decisions such as those involving potential civil commitment for those designated as sexually violent predators, as well as the possibility of lifetime community supervision, reliance on methods and procedures possessing a strong scientific evidence base is especially critical. While much progress has been made regarding the ability of professionals in the field to accurately estimate the likelihood of future sexual reoffense, no one is presently able to estimate either the timing or the severity of such future criminal conduct (J. Levenson, personal communication, May 23, 2011). Therefore, it is critically important to establish a clear understanding of exactly what risk is being assessed and to frame expectations accordingly. Current methods at present allow, in most cases, only for an estimate of the likelihood of both future sexual and nonsexual offending over a specific timeframe. The accuracy of these estimates depends in part on the degree to which the individual offender being assessed matches a known group of sex offenders (knows as the normative sample or norm group) and the degree to which the factors included in the risk assessment accurately reflect the known universe of relevant risk factors. Review of Research
The purposes of risk assessment span the spectrum of the adjudication process. Sex offender risk assessments are most often employed in applied forensic settings for purposes of decision-making (Doren, 2002).