Analysis: $BTC holds over 80% chance of gains during Lunar New Year holidays

In a recent post on X, crypto service provider Matrixport pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced gains during 11 of the past 12 Lunar New Years, reflecting an impressive 83% success rate. Based on historical data, BTC tends to perform particularly well during the 20-day period surrounding this holiday, which starts on Jan. 29 this year. From a technical standpoint, daily reversal indicators hit oversold levels last week, suggesting potential support. However, the weekly indicators still signal that BTC may be overbought. On the macroeconomic front, tightening liquidity and the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continue to pose challenges for the market. Despite these headwinds, bullish catalysts such as the upcoming U.S.-based BTC reserve and the pro-crypto outlook of the new administration under Donald Trump could provide a much-needed counterbalance.
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