2004 Indian general election analysis
Introduction 300pxThe 2004 general elections defied the predictions made by pre-poll predictions and exit polls and allowed the newly formed UPA alliance led by Sonia Gandhi, to come to power. This election also saw the rise of marginalized parties like the left, to join forces with the opposition, which led to a major realignment in social and political power.Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a hung parliament. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a large wealthy middle class and thus achieved its overwhelming victory.The reverses in the pre-poll predictions are ascribed to various reasons depending on the point of view. * People were more concerned about issues of their immediate environment such as water scarcity, drought, etc., than national issues. * The anti-incumbency factor was at work for the BJP allies.
State by State analysis ===Andhra Pradesh===+ Voting Pattern in Andhra Pradesh Social Background INC+ TDP+'''Gender''' Male'''47%'''42% Female'''54%'''41%'''Social Class''' Poor'''49%'''43% Very Poor'''50%'''41%'''OBCs''' Peasant OBCs45%'''48%''' Lower OBCs'''47%'''45%'''Rural Classes''' Farmers41%'''49%''' Agricultural workers'''51%'''41% Young voters'''57%'''38%'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''===Karnataka===+ Voting pattern in Karnataka  Category INC BJP+ JD(S) Others Upper caste23%'''65%'''7%5% Vokkaliga38%18%'''43%'''1% Lingayat30%'''60%'''5%5% OBCs35%'''36%'''23%6% Dalit'''45%'''32%8%16% Adivasi29%'''35%''''''35%'''2% Muslims'''55%'''19%21%5% Others'''39%'''37%15%9%+ Considerable dissatisfaction with the Anthony government  Category Deteriorated Same as before Improved No opinion Corruption'''49%'''26%11%13% Drinking water'''44%'''26%24%5% Uninterrupted power supply'''39%'''27%28%4%'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''===Kerala===+ Voting pattern in Kerala  Category LDF UDF BJP Hindu upper castes'''40%'''37%18% Nairs'''41%'''29%27% Ezhavas'''59%'''22%18% OBCs'''49%'''36%13% Dalits'''71%'''15%10% Muslims39%'''58%'''2% Christians28%'''64%'''2%+ Considerable dissatisfaction with the Anthony government  Category Deteriorated Same as before Improved No opinion Drinking water'''49%'''32%16%3% PDS38%'''42%'''14%6% Public health27%'''43%'''23%7% Education23%31%'''38%'''7% Electricity31%'''44%'''19%6% Employment'''50%'''32%13%5% Agriculture'''59%'''22%13%6% Industries'''40%'''34%15%11%'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''===Tamil Nadu===+ Voting Pattern in Tamil Nadu Category DMK+ AIADMK+ Others'''Gender''' Male'''54%'''32%14% Female'''49%'''39%12%'''Locality''' Rural'''50%'''35%15% Urban'''57%'''36%7%'''Social class''' Very poor'''44%'''37%17% Poor'''55%'''31%14% Lower middle'''57%'''37%6% Middle'''51%'''39%10%'''Caste''' Upper caste33%'''54%'''13% Thevar'''50%'''47%3% Vanniyars'''61%'''33%6% Chettiyars'''47%'''30%23% Gounders'''57%'''33%10% Nadars'''57%'''36%7% Lower OBCs'''55%'''33%12% Chekkliyars, Pallars, etc. '''39%'''38%23% other Dalits'''40%'''37%23% Muslims'''78%'''11%11%'''Tell me how good each of the leaders are for Tamil Nadu...'''+ Karunanidhi rated better than Jayalalithaa  Rating M. Karunanidhi J. Jayalalithaa Bad13%'''31%''' Average31%'''33%''' Good'''29%'''17% Very good'''22%'''14% Do not know'''5%''''''5%''''''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''
References
External links *  Verdict 2004