CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Wednesday that he thinks former President Donald Trump’s gains with independents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are making Democrats uneasy.
Trump currently holds narrow leads over Vice President Kamala Harris in all three states, according to RealClearPolling averages. Enten, on “CNN News Central,” noted Trump is now slightly leading among independents in these battleground states, a shift from 2020 when he trailed President Joe Biden with this demographic.
“What do we know about independents, right? Center of the electorate. You go last time around Joe Biden won these voters by 11 points. You look at September of 2024, a month ago, Kamala Harris was up five points among independents. You look now though, look at this. She’s only up by two points among a key bloc, center of the electorate, down nine points from where Biden was at the end of the 2020 campaign,” Enten told host John Berman. “Of course, this is a national picture … What is going on in those key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, the Great Lakes, that blue wall, right?”
“Joe Biden, last time around, won ’em by five points over Donald Trump. Look at where we are today. This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate, up by a point. Now, of course, that’s well within any margin of error, right? But again, it‘s the movement. It’s the trend, Mr. Berman, that we’re looking at,” he added. “And when you flip a group from going plus five Biden to now plus one Trump. That’s the type of movement Donald Trump loves to see, and it’s the type of movement that I think gives Democrats some agita.”
Enten also asserted presidential candidates who win with independent voters typically secure an election victory, though not always.
“Why are we seeing this movement in the electorate, perhaps away from the Democrats towards Donald Trump? And this is true overall, this is true among independents as well. View as too liberal, right? Are you out of the mainstream, perhaps? 38% said that of Joe Biden back in 2020, now that number is up to 48% for Kamala Harris versus the 40% or so who see Trump as too conservative,” he added. “The bottom line is Harris may be a little bit too out of the mainstream, at least compared to Donald Trump when we’re talking ideologically speaking.”
Harris supported many left-wing policies during her 2020 presidential bid, but reversed some of her stances since launching her 2024 campaign in July. Her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, also has a far-left record on issues such as immigration and transgender policy.
Trump also currently leads Harris in the other four top swing states, according to the RealClearPolling averages. Journalist Mark Halperin asserted Tuesday that Trump will be president-elect on Nov. 5 if the present early voting trajectory persists.
“Make no mistake, if these numbers hold up in the states where we can understand even partially what the data is like, we’ll know that Donald Trump’s going to be president on Election Day,” he said.
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