In this blog I’ve talked several times about El Niño and La Niña and how they affect climate across the Northern Hemisphere as well as their impacts on the rest of the world. We are currently in a strong El Niño with sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) that are much warmer than the long-term average. But underneath the surface the ocean currents are starting to change and the El Niño is expected to swing quickly into the opposite phase, La Niña. That will affect us in North America but also other parts of the world since both El Niño and La Niña are linked to global atmospheric patterns. Since a La Niña Watch was just issued by NOAA this week I will be talking about the changes we can expect to see over the next few months and how those changes will affect gardens and gardeners.
Review—What are El Niño and La Niña?
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a large-scale atmosphere/ocean pattern that is driven by temperatures in the EPO. The pattern affects climate in many places around the globe. It is the biggest driver of seasonal climate in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest as well as in some other countries, especially in Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter when it is usually the strongest.
In September 2023 I discussed the likely impacts of the El Niño that was growing at that time and how it would affect your winter gardens. The conditions I expected have mostly been observed, although there are some local differences that are not surprising considering that each event is unique. Northern states have been incredibly warm with little snow, while in the Southeast we have had a lot of rain and cooler (although not frigid) temperatures due to wet soils and a lot of clouds blocking the sun. California is getting hit by one atmospheric river event after another, so they are also very wet and are even seeing a lake in Death Valley. I imagine they will have quite a bloom of spring flowers when it gets warmer because of the ample moisture. What have you experienced in your area? Did my earlier column get it right?
How is this season different than a typical El Niño winter?
Even though we have had the swings of El Niño and La Niña (collectively called El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO) for thousands of years as evidenced by layers in ice sheets in Peru and ocean sediments, there are other changes that are not cyclical. The rise in global temperature over time is showing up as a warming trend in all seasons but especially in winter. That does not mean we don’t see other swings in climate over time because ENSO and other atmospheric cycles are still occurring, but they are superimposed on the slowly rising temperature associated with increases in greenhouse gases so the cold outbreaks aren’t quite as severe and the warm spells last longer.
This year one of the most notable things we are seeing in global climate is the unbelievable warmth in the Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures there now are at values consistent with June or July temperatures! This is the energy that will feed tropical storms later in summer (more on that in a minute). Scientists are still not sure of all of the factors that are contributing to these record-setting conditions, but they may include the eruption of Hunga Tonga, the elimination of sulfur emissions from modern cargo ships, and changes in the global ocean circulation.
In addition, in spite of one cold big outbreak this winter across the eastern United States, most areas have been warmer than normal resulting in an early spring that has brought honeysuckle leaves to my yard more than a week early. You can follow the “green wave” north and see when it gets to your area or verify that it’s already there at the National Phenology Network site. I am concerned about the possibility of having another late frost like 2023 that could impact the peach and blueberry growers in the Southeast since our average last spring frost date is early to mid-March for most of the commercial peach region. There has been enough cold weather for most of the fruit-producing plants to have reached their required number of chill hours, which means the warm weather is making them ready to bloom. While I don’t see another cold outbreak on the horizon for the next few weeks, we have had frosts in the Southeast into April before so we are not out of the woods yet.
When will La Niña begin?
Climatologists predict that El Niño will weaken through spring and we will swing back into neutral conditions by the April through June period. From there most models predict we will move into a La Niña by the June through August period. By NH fall (September through November) there is a 77% chance we will be in La Niña conditions. This has implications for the summer and especially for the Atlantic tropical season since in neutral and La Niña years the number of tropical storms that occur in the Gulf and Atlantic is higher than in El Niño years. Last year despite El Niño we had 20 named storms, much more than the average of 14 events. This was in part due to the unusually warm water. Most of those stayed over the Atlantic Ocean rather than make landfall due to the presence of a strong jet stream high in the atmosphere which disrupted the development of storms farther to the west and prevented a lot of damage to us in the United States. In spite of that, we still had Hurricane Idalia and Tropical Storm Ophelia, both of which caused a lot of damage to infrastructure and agriculture.
With La Niña fully in place by fall, there will be little to stop the development of tropical storms in the Gulf and Atlantic Ocean except for Saharan dust and unfavorable weather patterns in the United States that could at least shunt any storms away from land. Some early unofficial predictions are for 25 or more named storms to occur this year, although the official predictions are still a few weeks away.
Next winter, we can expect La Niña to control a lot of our climate. That means warmer and drier conditions across the southern part of the United States while cold and wet conditions return to the northern states. Here in the Southeast, that means soil could be pretty dry in spring 2025 leading to issues with planting although it will be easier to drive heavy equipment into the fields than I expect will happen this year.
What does all of this mean for gardeners in the United States?
Because of the recent warm conditions associated with rising temperatures and enhanced by El Niño in northern parts of the country, spring is coming early to many places. That can be a good thing if you like flowers and don’t like snow, but it does mean that your early flowers will still be susceptible to frost damage if we get another cold outbreak later in March or even into April or May for northern states. So you will need to be prepared to protect the tender plants if a frost or freeze occurs.
The end of El Niño and the eventual rise of La Niña also has implications for areas that are affected by tropical systems. This includes the Gulf and East Coasts and areas downwind of those locations but can also include parts of California and the Southwest which can see impacts from tropical systems in the EPO west of Mexico. Rainfall could be hit or miss in the late summer depending on where the storms go. You should prepare well in advance of June 1, the official start of the season, because the warm ocean water could allow tropical storms to develop in May ahead of the “official” start. That means making sure you remove damaged limbs or other objects that could become wind-borne debris, make sure you have adequate drainage for heavy rain, and keep an inventory of your belongings that could be washed or blown away in a storm. Have a family plan to keep in touch and evacuate if you need to, including pets and livestock. You can find a lot of good information on preparing for and recovering from natural disasters in this University of Georgia handbook, even if you are not in Georgia or the Southeast.
While the current warm weather makes gardeners eager to get out in their plots and get started, it’s probably too early to start in most of the country except the most southern areas. But you can dream and start planning for the warmer weather soon to come!