2022 senate: r+12 (r+12) > nailed it 2022 governor: r+17 (r+18) > d+1 miss 2020 president: r+7 (r+8) > d+1 miss 2020 senate: r+4 (r+7) > d+3 miss 2018 governor: d+2 (r+3) > d+5 miss (largest miss in over a decade) 2016 senate: r+23 (r+24) > d+1 2016 president: r+7 (r+9) > d+2 2014 senate: r+7 (r+8) > d+1 2012 president: d+5 (d+6) > d+1 so very accurate with a consistent ~1-2 point bias towards dems. if you take her largest miss in over a decade and double it, you get r+7, which is still 1 point bluer than it was in 2020 when he lost.
United States