why everyone cares about the selzer poll  i've been following this shit for years and that poll is routinely called the gold standard. but even if it's wrong how wrong would it be with their track record? what you're seeing is people doing this math....1) it's likely an outlier but even if it's off a bit it's still a terrible poll for trump. 2) so if it's off twice the margin of error that would be trump +3. trump won iowa by 9 in 2020. 3) selzer poll is pretty reliable at predicting the white vote in the midwest. ann selzer was one of the few to correctly see trump's strength in 2016. her final poll had trump+7 in 2016 over clinton.
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