> 40 years and the keys have never been wrong indeed 1. party mandate: false - democrats lost house seats in 2022 midterms 2. no primary contest: false - harris wasn't the original incumbent candidate 3. incumbent seeking re-election: false - biden withdrew, harris running instead 4. no third party: false - rfk jr. joined trump's side 5. strong short-term economy: false - high inflation concerns and economic uncertainty 6. strong long-term economy: false - continued economic concerns 7. major policy change: true - biden administration passed significant legislation 8. no social unrest: false - multiple sources of social unrest (blm, pro-palestinian protests, antisemitism, neo-nazi demonstrations) 9. no scandal: false - biden's withdrawal due to perceived mental fitness issues 10. no foreign/military failure: false - challenges with ukraine/israel support, taiwan situation 11. major foreign/military success: false - no major successes, previous afghanistan withdrawal issues 12. charismatic incumbent: false - harris is perceived as not charismatic 13. uncharismatic challenger: false - trump is perceived as charismatic, especially after the assassination attempt incident final count: 12 false keys, 1 true key according to the "keys to the white house" system, when six or more keys are false, the incumbent party typically loses. with 12 false keys, this model would predict a loss for the incumbent democratic party (harris) and a win for the challenger (trump).  the keys are mine allan!
United States