its not pa you have to worry about, its tx > 29.2 million people in 2020 > trump won by 600 k votes  > 66% voter turn out but now > 30.5 million people > 250k deaths per year, thats, 1m dead since 2020, 2/3 republicans > 300k new immigrants from other state per year, 2/3 democrat > gap between democrat and republican now at 200k voters > harris+abortion ban will push voter turn out 74%, like mi, pa, and wi > mi turnout at 71% went blue(63% 2016 red) > wi turnout at 72% went blue(67% 2016 red) > oh turnout at 74% went red(66% 2016 red) > pa turnout at 77% went blue(71% 2016 red) > fl turnout at 77% went red (75% 2016 red) > nc turnout at 77% went red(65% 2016 red) however, when voter turnout increased, either the state went blue, or the gap was reduced. for example, in nc in 2020, trump won by 1.44 points. in 2016, he won by 3.66 points.  so just adding 10% more reduced the gap 2.22 points.  so tx has to worry about 200k voters at 66% turnout. there are currently 17.9 million voters in tx. at 66%, thats 11.88m. but to add in 200k voters, or (0.2+11.88)/17.9= 67%. at 71% voter turnout, the p-value hits the statistically significant mark
United States