without the bloomberg wisconsin poll according to rcp harris "lead in polling" in wisconsin is only about 0.5%. if you remove the rasmussen poll it goes to about 0.66%. in penn without the bloomberg poll according to rcp, trump is now up by 0.1%, without the rasmussen and bloomberg poll he is up by 0.12% every single bloomberg poll recently released is a massive outlier in favor of harris. look into the data on rcp itself.  this would mean that if the polling was 100% accurate for today and we simply removed rasmussen and bloomberg for being outliers trump is actually very slightly ahead in the electoral college over the 270 mark by the slimmest of possible margin. now of course this is all conjecture because even the most accurate and honest of polls still have a margin of error with a large sampling of a couple percentage points. on election night 2020 biden won wisconsin by 0.7%, in the polls he was ahead on average by 6.7%. this meant polls overestimated biden in that one state by about 6% percentage points.  in 2016 trump won wisconsin by 0.7% points, despite polls showing clinton up by 6.5% percentage points. if the polls were even 1% off in favor of harris which would make them many times more accurate, trump would win that state and clinch the 270.
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