> selzer & co. conducted their final 2016 iowa poll in early november, showing donald trump ahead of hillary clinton by seven percentage points.[12] most other polls at the time showed a much closer race.[13] trump won iowa by 9.4 percentage points. on october 31, 2020, selzer's highly anticipated last poll of iowa before the 2020 elections was released. it showed trump ahead of joe biden by seven percentage points, and republican senator joni ernst ahead of democratic challenger theresa greenfield by four percentage points.[14] this was the only poll conducted in fall 2020 to show trump ahead by more than two points.[15] ernst's race was considered a toss-up at the time.[16] trump eventually won iowa by 8.2 percentage points, and ernst was re-elected by a 6.6 point margin. in a post-election interview with bloomberg.com, selzer suggested that her polls' consistently high performance may be related to making fewer assumptions about the electorate, but rather "i assumed nothing. my data told me."[17]
United States