  /1848581575258132987 > the all-important clark county firewall is under 9,000 votes, about a fourth of what it was in 2020 at this time. (apples to oranges warning, but that is a big change.) this is what i wrote at this time in 2020: > this year, after two days, 137,000 have cast mail and in-person ballots in clark, and the lead is nearly double 2016 in raw numbers, although the percentages are not as different: 53 percent to 26 percent. > in 2024, after two days, the clark total is not much different from 2020: 136,000 votes cast. but the percentages are much, much different: 40-34. keep an eye on this. > and if you figure what happens if the rs do eventually get a turnout advantage (reminder that 4-5 points has been the norm in recent presidential cycles), you can see why the closing registration gap makes republicans optimistic and democrats skittish. > the best hope for trump is that this turnout pattern holds and election day puts him over the top. the best hope for harris is the indies break her way in clark, and the dem machine turns them out. (joe biden won indies statewide by 6 points in 2020, according to exit polls.) > the dems are winning clark by 6.5 points now; they lead by 6.8 points in registration. see why they need indies? > bottom line: somebody knows somethin! what do i know? it looks very tight now, but the dems need to increase that firewall to offset likely gop gains on election day.
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