early voting and states flipping red - day 3  i'm back again. i had threads the past two nights gainted traction. posting an update with today's data. i'll include the same basic summary, then some new thoughts. for anyone who is curious on early voting, i started doing a basic analysis of 2020 vs 2024. im using data from here:   / im comparing what the democrat lead was in 2020 compared to what it is now at the same point in time. i also added 2020 election results to see how much the 2020 margin has been cut into. numbers in negative are good outcomes (trump winning) and the change is how many votes hes picking up vs 2020. first, some caveats > picking only the swing states (plus va because im curious and nh and nj at request). > some states dont have party registration available. these are the gray highlights. im skeptical of the modeled party assumption they use. > data is on a 1 day lag. > independent split. any independents or others i split 54-41 to democrats based on national exit polls. > national split isnt accurate but i dont want to spend the time on each states split. this is a favorable assumption to democrats > doesnt factor in voter registration changes from today's data, its still showing trump leads in az, ga, and nv with purely early voting. with the net gain in votes vs 2020 margins, he's flipped az, nv and pa. trump led in ga by more in 2020, so he's actually losing it by more now. this data is also showing he continues to lose mi and wi by more. since they use "modeled party" i'm skeptical of the data. focusing on the states where we do have voter registration, all four are showing positive signs, especially in pa.
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