and here is the change from yesterday. my new thoughts: 1. focus on the states where voter registration is known. there might be some switch voting between parties, but not much. 2. i can't stress enough how much pa has improved. trump ate into the lead by almost 542k votes. he only needed to pick up 81k to win against 2020 results. turnout for r's is now at 94% (was 108%) yesterday, meaning they have tons of people who can vote on 11/5. 3. az also looks really good. he lost by less than 11k and is up by 196k currently. again with plenty of turnout left. 4. dem turnout sucks across the board (excluding ga and mi). they don't like harris and it shows. 5. it's crazy but nj might actually be in play. i can't help but feel like i'm hopelessly optimistic for that. however, he's picked up 398k of 725k votes need. early voting for both parties is way down, so it comes down to tuesday. 5a. besides the obvious reason of nj being a dem shithole, i doubt it does flip. the margin for biden improved from this point (6 days to election) to final results. 6. someone last night pointed out that ga passed sb189 which means they have to count early/mail in votes first. this makes it significantly harder to make up ballots after figuring out how many they need. anyway, hope you guys enjoy this again tonight.
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