this is the likely scenario. virginia is looking to be a surprise upset. trump is heavily doing significantly better than glenn youngkin did in early voting when he won the governor race there. unless literally 60% of the people who plan to vote democrat in virginia are planning on voting on election day instead of early voting this should be an easy flip. the governor also won his court case in the supreme court today allowing him to purge confirmed illegal aliens from the voter rolls starting today after the federal government sued him for attempting to remove confirmed illegal aliens. whitmer and shapiro will not allow trump to take their states in any scenario so mi and pa are going blue no matter what. even though trump is now leading in nh polling i don't think he will it. even though trump is winning in early voting in nj i think there will be a surprise on election day there.
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