the future is not 100% predictable, and not with precise accuracy. but if you see a bunch of grey clouds on the horizon, and when you face them the wind is blowing in your face; there's very good odds you're about to have rain and to take the washing off the line. it's possible that the wind will change and carry them another direction, or the clouds won't rain on you, or the clouds are actually smoke or something; but that doesn't take away from the fact that 95% of the time the right move is to take your washing off the line and go inside. predicting complex events as as possible as predicting simple events, it's just a matter of ignoring the minutia and focusing on the relevant data inputs. the only real question is: are the data inputs he's using to predict events the right inputs, and are they sufficient? i don't think there's going to be a civil conflict or social/political breakdown for at least another 4 years, but it doesn't take a particularly intelligent person to see that everything is fucked, and something bad is going to happen. the lid is rattling around on the top of the pot.
Pirate