it's a coin toss that is slightly in trump's favour. but this is significant because this analysis is based on data that has consistently underestimated trump's actual performance. trump wins states and counties where he is behind in the polls. he loses states and counties by a smaller margin than polls predict. this is just a consistent fact of his time in politics. there is no reason to believe this trend has changed. if polling puts trump as the favourite, you can pretty much take that to the bank (unless there is some serious shenanigans, but even in 2020 in the states with suspicion election activity, trump was still approx 3 points ahead of what the polls had predicted).
Australia