gender data also lines up with a massive republican advantage. > woman vote decreased 14 million > male vote only decreased 10 million so you can pretty much say this is a 4 million vote advantage for republicans. women actually aren't getting out to vote because of abortion in the numbers they wanted, there's 14 million less woman early votes from this time in 2020. from both these things i estimate that republicans are 4-6 million votes better than their situation was last election. for reference, brandon had 81 million votes, trump had 74 million. take away 4 million from biden and he's left with 77 million, which means he wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral college. take away 6 million and biden almost loses the popular vote. this is just for early votes. generally, though, if there's a general declining trend for one party you can't expect there to be a rise elsewhere, so likely much lower turnout than 2020, but democrats particularly have low turnout.
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