> party mandate: after the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the house false. trump gets key. > contest: there is no serious contest for the nomination. only true because the democrats shielded biden from being primaried. > incumbency: candidate is the sitting president. false. trump gets the key. > third party: there is no significant third party/independent. only true because rfk jr. dropped out (and threw his support behind trump, lol). > short term economy: the economy is not in recession during the election campaign. bullshit "true." people are feeling the effects of bidenomics and will likely vote as if this is false. > long term economy: real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. only true because covid gave biden a rock bottom to build up from. > policy change: the incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. true because of bbb. > social unrest: there is no sustained social unrest during the term. true. > scandal: the incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. false because of the influence peddling scandal, the open border fiasco, and hiding biden's senility and getting caught red handed. however, the media doesn't cover any of this well so you could argue "true". > foreign/military failure: no major failure in foreign or military affairs. false. afghanistan withdrawal and an emboldened iran. > foreign/military success: major success in foreign or military affairs. false. ongoing war in the middle east and the russian invasion of ukraine. > incumbent charisma: incumbent party candidate is charismatic lol, false. > challenger charisma: challenging party candidate is not charismatic only true because the media does all it can to hide trump's charisma. the keys don't work this time because trump is a former potus and social media means the establishment doesn't control narratives pertinent to the keys.
Canada