going back as to why the defeat of ukraine will harm nato immensely - is due to the fact that eastern nato members who have until now believed they can forever remain in the state of "frozen conflict" with russia due to nato's protection, will realise that nato's ability to enforce its policies is declining. they will have to look inward, into their own capabilities to prepare for war for russia, driven by an understanding that nato's hold on the geopolitics there isn't as effective anymore. to portray this as a metaphor, imagine eastern europe got sick - but instead of taking medication, getting some rest, and avoiding activities that would make the sickness worse - it resorted to taking painkillers to simply hide the growing problems, which on the surface seems to allow the body to perform well, but underneath - allows the germs to continue spreading even further, until the body becomes so sick that no form of medication can save it anymore. this "painkiller" is nato, and the wars which are beginning to unfold now, is the beginning of the withdrawal period. the many issues that should have been prevented, resolved, regulated and rebalanced for the region in the past 30 years - are all about to explode into everyone's face.
Lithuania