you do realize sports are politics are not the same right? with a sports line you can get insider info on stats or injury reports that the public doesn't know. politics really all you can get is the polling. i know what you'll say....well what about internal polling. some of that has leaked and it looks more or less similar to the "better" public polls. so if you believe in internal polling just look at the more established public polls. furthermore sports don't really have a margin of error. all of the polling in this election is within the margin of error because we're seeing a ton of herding (even the internal polling reflects that). why? because these pollsters need to stay in business. they'd rather be close and wrong than not close and wrong. they're afraid of their own outliers. but not releasing outliers fucks with the polling aggregators. they're designed to handle outliers and we're seeing fewer of them. anyways what i am getting at is that the betting sites rely on data points. the only real data point we have is polling. so if you believe the betting sites then you should believe the polling since other than that all they could be basing their bet on is vibes. i don't want to hear about early voting numbers because the guys who wade into that shit are mostly doing pseudoscience. anyways betting sites are fun but they're not very useful because they're just people betting on polling results basically. might as well just look at the polls.
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