the way i see it there are 2 turning points, after pokrovsk gets captured it will be too hard for the ukranian army to fight in the current fronline, they will have to pull back to a better position where their supply chain is not that compromised, it will be a moral blow and it already is. the next turning point is the siege and fall of kiev, that will be a moral blow too and may compel more people to just surrender, under normal circumstances a losing side would have consneeded a long time ago to stop further damage to the country and it's people like the armenians did in 2020, they saw the writing on the wall and folded which i respect, this case is not the same, zelensky would rather send teens to the meat grinder and repopulate with africans than let putin have his way, so there is not a clear end goal, either zelensky surrenders (not likely to happen) or he gets overthrown after several crushing defeats (more likely to hapoen)
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