you're missing the nuance of what i'm saying. i'm not disputing that statistics are based on real-world data. my point is that a statistical model is itself an abstraction. reality is not obliged to follow a statistical trend. an election is that problem manifest: it's sensitive to the desires of individual humans. it's a very small but important distinction: the trend is not reality; it is an abstract attempt to rationalize it. again, how the real world plays out ultimately has no causal relationship with the abstraction.
United States