> it would grant the dems a +10 swing in senate seats on average. wrong. we already have an answer for this, both the electoral college as well as the senate map > independent quebec: new states are now 9 > merge the maritimes: new states are now 7 > separate the ontario peninsula from a new state of western/northern ontario: new states are now 8 > alberta, saskatchewan, northern ontario, and manitoba are now approximately 16 r seats > ontario, maritime, newfoundland & labrador, and american columbia are now approximately 16 d seats the senate map remains unchanged. but what about electoral votes? > current total is 538: need 270 to win > evs are allocated as one per senator and one per house district (each million people gets a district, with a one district minimum for states with lower populations than that) > canschluss adds 44 new electoral votes, bringing the total to 582, and now it's 292 to win > 29 new safe d evs: d goes from 226 to 255 > 15 new safe r evs: r goes from 219 to 234 this only increases the d advantage by 4 electoral votes, from their 2024 advantage of 7 points to a new total of 11 points. that's already manageable, considering trump won by a lot more than 11 points. except there's one last thing > 2030 census forecast > safe d loses 12, swing loses 1, safe r gains 13 > new safe total for d: 243 > new safe total for r: 247 so the solution to abolishing canada once and for all without incurring any political damage in the process is clear: > don't annex quebec, but do make it an independent protectorate in free association or a bilateral labor and trade agreement so that it may gradually weed out french > merge the maritimes > divide ontario > don't allow the former canada region territories to become states until after the 2030 census > senate outcomes are still competitive > 28 new house seats are created, if just three of them are safe r, then dems still have not overcome the post-2030 r advantage of 25 seats > presidential elections favor r by 4
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