> 3- the house tables a motion of non confidence we have an election(most likely) i don't think it can. procedural shenanigans mean that while the fall economic statement could count as a confidence motion itself, the opposition has no power right now to move such a motion on its own. also thanks to the upcoming holiday and new session next year, the opposition isn't guaranteed to get such an opportunity until around spring, since the government can massage things around so that the first opposition days are delayed. you also forgot: 5- 1 or 2 but the liberals survive a confidence motion and immediately afterwards prorogue for a long period of time to "focus on dealing with donald trump" and the house doesn't sit at all for months and months there's also 5b where they skip the confidence motion, prorogue anyways, and dare anyone to start a constitutional crisis to make the governor general kick them out early.
Canada