no you can guarantee it will be close. trump is a populist demogogue. weve never really had one of those in modern politics and people struggle to see the implications of that campaigning method compared to other presidential candidates. for starters he depends on low brow agitation and controversy. this means that he gets his people out but also he motivates a certain number out in response against him. also he fares better when he is the "out-candidate" unlike traditional politicians. it is harder for him to run as an incumbent.  biden was a savvy play against trump. old senile white guy... he felt sort of harmless compared to clinton. this made it harder for trump to ply his low brow agitation. now that we have the entire democrat base getting rugpulled and replaced with a brown california woman, i believe you will see 1. slightly depressed turnout amongst dems and 2. increased agitation amongst trump people. these things won't show in polls because the turnout models assume certain turnout levels as the first step of polling.
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