imagine it is 2030. russia and china are holding their first major military exercises in the arctic. called vostok 2030, the joint drill involves thousands of troops, tanks, aircraft, and most of the russian and chinese northern fleets. it is just the latest manifestation of moscow and beijings historic partnership. over the past five years, russia and china have steadily increased their military and economic presence in the arctic. the 2025 ceasefire in the russo-ukraine war allowed moscow to reconstitute its military. beijing has also come to view nato as a paper tiger after us president donald trump accelerated the shift in washingtons focus away from europe and towards china. suddenly, russia announces it has extended its control over the arctic continental shelf. china says it recognises the claim. russia, in turn, declares that chinas historic claim to the south china sea is legitimate too. soon after, sino-russian forces invade norways svalbard archipelago, a strategic group of islands that controls access to the high north. nato forces mobilise  but lack the us militarys heft and logistical power to take it back.
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