polling isn't as close as it seems. we're seeing a ton of herding. everything is within the margin of error. so the most likely outcome is that breaks hard for one or the other on election days and someone wins 5 out of 7 or 6 out of 7 (all 7 is possible but less likely) of the contested swing states. i could make arguments for either winning because it feels like the pollsters are being chick shits and not showing the outliers. i go back and forth on who will win, right now i'm thinking trump wins a close one like 2016 but i could change my mind before election day. the one thing that worries me is how much of the white vote he has lost in the polling. he is making up for it with non-college men of color voters (especially hispanic). the worry is that demographic is the most unreliable voting demographic in us politics. uneducated latino men simply do note vote in large numbers. so trump needs to hope the polling is off with the white bleed the polling shows or that he really gets the beaner men out to vote. the worry for her is she underperforming with hispanic men. i could see a scenario where she loses because she lost nevada and one other state (wisconsin likely) because of it. that is my no bullshit analysis. take it or leave it.
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