> it's not another "fuck ruzzia" thread from polish flag. i genuinely want to know what you think on the subject. > situation looks like this: > >dollar broke barrier of 100rubles > >interest rates at 21% and will only go up in foreseeable future > it seem like only two possibilities russia has in a decade ahead is hyperinflation or stagflation. similar to what was in early 1990s, but there are also some extra issues: > >official economic data is falsified at all levels > >foreign investors (with exception of chinks) got burned when they had to sell their multi-billion companies to russian government for 1euro > >main customers (europe) of exports (natural resources) signed long term contracts with other supliers > also: > >russian market isn't actually so big for all the extra risks and efford > even pre-war value of russian imports was at the level of poland's imports. when in 1990s it seemed like ex-ussr is a huge market whenever it's people become civilized and wealthy, nominal numbers 3 decades later show that even at it's peak, it's just as big as medium-sized european country. > all these sanctions (that weren't there in early 1990s), won't just vanish when war in ukraine stops. just as it's a huge bureaucratic efford to put every next package on russia's shoulders, it will be even bigger bureaucratic mess to lift these packages one by one - if there's a political will in european countries (which seems unlikely in foreseeable future, because even in germany pro-russian parties like afd and sahra wagenknecht are in minority). > so, do you think upcoming russian smuta will be even worse than smuta in 1990s? do you think if it matters if war in ukraine ends in few months or few years? will china (with it's own economic problems) want to bailout russia to soften the blow? > most important: will it be possible and reasonable to buy a property in russia when things calm down and they're cheap? i mean in broader, political context (not short-term view of /biz/). idk
Ireland