Football match prediction using regression I am trying to predict goal difference of football matches in keras using a single layer Neural Network. I used mse as metrics and its a low value aroung 0.05 but some predictions has huge difference.


I tried sklearn LinearRegression too but results were almost same. Also I have tried multiple layers network too but results were almost same too.

Any ideas to lower the predicted difference?
If your MSE is low, but then your predictions on the test set are way off, i can think only of over-fitting either you're leaking information from the training set to the test set ( or vice-versa ) or you simply have a complex model ( too many features ) which you could solve by increasing your data or going for less features.

That's a first diagnosis, maybe you could plot your learning curves so you can check your variance/bias and tell which one of those problems you have.