How to predict the probability of an event? I have a dataset where a set of people donated for charity along with the dates of the donation. I have to find the probability of each donor donating in the next three months.

Data is available from August 2014 - February 2016. I have to predict the probability of each person donating for March-June 2016.

Any help would be appreciated?

Below is a snapshot of the data

id  date    amount
1   13-08-14    2485
1   21-11-14    2105
1   17-09-15    1359
2   13-08-14    2542
2   20-04-15    1276
2   12-10-15    2694
3   20-11-14    3556
4   28-07-15    3383
5   13-08-14    1698
5   11-12-14    1725
5   09-06-15    1376
5   17-09-15    3230


Regards
Please double-check if there's the only data you have got, because all you have is a single predictor date.

If this is indeed your only data source, then you only have a single predictor, and your independent variable is continuous. Now, you should plot date vs amount and fit a single linear regression. Does the fitting look good? Only you can tell because we don't have the full data-set.

If it's not a good fit, look at the plot and ask yourself does this look like a curve? If so, you might want to fit a spline curve or something like that.

You should also check the autocorrelation. This makes sense because your data look like a time series (you'll need to check it yourself). If this is the case, you might want to consider MA and ARCH model.

It's not possible for us to give you accurate advice because we don't know your data.